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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-29-17 | Braves v. Marlins -147 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 55 m | Show | |
This is an 8* PERFECT STORM on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). I had a play on Miami last night and I think the Marlins will roll in this matchup as well. The visitors hand the ball to Luiz Gohara (1-3, 4.63 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against Philadelphia on Sunday, giving up one run over seven innings for the victory. Clearly I’m not reading too much into one good performance though, as note that previous to that Gohara had posted a 6.06 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over three starts. The home side counters with Dan Straily (10-9, 4.08) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings while also striking out nine in an unfortunate no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Straily looks for his 11th win of the season and will also be hoping to push his ERA back down under 4.00 (note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.18 ERA at home this season.) I’ll point out that ATL is just 12-18 (-9.8 units) in its last 30 against clubs with losing records, while Miami is 30-20 (+9.5 units) in its last 50 in the same position. I love Straily in this matchup and expect the veteran to easily outduel his still relatively untested rookie counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL -5 v. Duke | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 118 h 22 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Miami Florida (7:00 EST). Last week the Hurricanes thumped Toledo 52-30. The Blue Devils enter off a tough 27-17 road win over UNC and suffice it to say, I think the home side is primed for a letdown here. And if recent history is any precidence, then Miami Florida has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met on the field of play last year, it was the Canes that strolled to a relatively simple 40-21 victory. Miami trailed 16-10 at the half last week, showing some rust in the first after a two week layoff due to Hurricane Irma. The Canes finally got it together in the second half though, scoring the first 28 points out of the break. Hurricanes’ QB Malik Rosier was 26 of 37 for 333 yards, three TD’s and an INT, while Mark Walton rushed for 204 yards and a TD. So far the offense is ranked fifth in the nation in scoring with an average of 46.6 PPG. The defense has held its own, ranked 47th in allowing 21.5 PPG. Duke is 4-0, but now faces its stiffest test to date. The Blue Devils held the Tar Heels to 377 yards. The offense put up 388 yards. QB Daniel Jones was serviceable by going 18 of 34 for 204 yards and a TD. So far the Blue Devils are ranked 23rd in scoring with 40.5 PPG, while ranked 17th in the nation in conceding just 15.2 PPG. I’ll point out though that the Hurricanes have excelled in this spot for bettors, goign 17-5 ATS in their last 22 following a SU victory of 20 points or more, while Duke has struggled against Miami whenever these teams have met, going just 1-7 ATS the last eight in this series. Miami’s offense is much better than UNC’s and I ultimately believe Rosier is going to be a difference maker tonight. In a back and forth affair, I look for the high-powered Hurricanes to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers -7 | Top | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Green Bay Packers (8:25 EST). Lambeau is a tough spot to play in and suffice it to say, I think the Bears are going to predictably stumble here. Chicago looks primed for a letdown after its upset win at home over Pittsburgh last week. Green Bay also won in OT, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals 27-24 at home. Purely from a situational stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the Packers. Both teams off hard-fought OT victories, now have to transition to the short week for the nationally televised Thursday night game. The short week almost always favors the home side and certainly in this spot, Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers has an immense amount of experience in these scenarios. The Bears got 138 rushing yards from Jordan Howard in their upset victory over Pittsburgh. Chicago’s passing game has been a disaster though because of injury. QB Mike Glennon was 19 of 22 for 101 yards last week and was also sacked twice and threw a pick. That type of play simply isn’t going to get the job done this week against a now re-focused Packers team led by Rogers, who had 313 yards with three TD’s last Sunday. The running game looked weak, but the defense was decent in holding the Bengals to just 301 total yards. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 on the road, while Green Bay is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 in front of the home town crowd. I think the Bears are content with their big victory, while the Packers are eager to atone for their near upset loss last Sunday. Lay the points with confidence, play on Green Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-17 | A's -103 v. Rangers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (8:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (11-10, 4.56 ERA) who had his last start skipped over, but who in his previous outing gave up three runs (one earned) while striking out four over five innings in a victory over the Phillies on Sunday. Manaea has now given up three runs or fewer in five of his past six outings and owns a solid 4.12 FIP and 7.9 K/9 for the season. The home side counters with the volatile Miguel Gonzalez (8-12, 4.62) who comes in off a decent outing against these very A’s on Saturday, allowing one run over six innings. Gonzalez though has been more “miss” than “hit” this year and owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA in all home situations. Additionally I’ll point out that Texas is just 1-2 (-1.5 units) in its last three against southpaws, while Oakland is 4-1 (+3.2 units) in its last five against right-handed starters. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-17 | Texas -4 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 97 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* BIG 12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on Texas (8:00 EST). Texas will be eager to return to the winners circle after a frustrating 27-24 OT loss to USC. Iowa State on the other hand looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 42-14 win over Akron. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Longhorns have to be liking their chances for a bounce back this weekend, because when these teams met last year it was Texas that cruised to the convincing 27-6 road victory. Longhorns’ QB Sam Ehlinger was 21 of 40 for 298 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The ground game was the issue though, posting just 68 yards on 35 carries. WR Collin Johnson was unstoppable, making seven catches for 191 yards. Perhaps most impressively though was the way the Texas defense played, considering the high-powered opponent they were up against, limiting USC to 468 total yards (OT as well), as well as making two INT’s and three sacks. Cyclones’ QB Jacob Park was 24 of 33 for 317 yards and two TD’s last week. So far Park has 935 yards passing. RB David Montgomery also had a big day, posting 127 rushing yards. The ISU defense also looked good last week, holding Akron to 331 total yards, including just 38 on the ground. Park is an amazing talent, but I still think that Texas is better through all three phases of the game. The Longhorns just took the Trojans down to the wire and I think the team carries that impressive momentum over into this one for a convincing victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-17 | Astros v. Red Sox -115 | 12-2 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I think that home field will prove to be a big advantage for Eduardo Rodriguez tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Brad Peacock (12-2, 2.98 ERA), who has been sharp over the last month with a solid 2.35 ERA. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Peacock, as he’s been solid across the board. However, I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. Rodriguez (6-6, 3.91) comes in off a gem against Cincinnati on Saturday, allowing three hits and two walks while striking out six over eight scoreless innings. Rodriguez has been even better than Peacock in September, posting a tiny 2.13 ERA and 30/8 K/W over his last four starts. These hurlers and line-ups are clearly very evenly matched, but as mentioned off the top, I believe that in this playoff like atmosphere that home field advantage simply can’t be overlooked a very real factor in this particular matchup. Great line value on the hard-hitting home side, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-28-17 | Braves v. Marlins -110 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 35 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). In this meaningless end of season contest, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (11-12, 4.39 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Saturday. Teheran has been better on the road than at home this year, but he’s still just 7-10 with a 4.77 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Dillon Peters (0-2, 6.31) who gave up five runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to Arizona on Saturday. Note though that Peters has posted a 2.25 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out that ATL is just 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five against southpaws, while Miami is 4-2 (+2 units) in its last six against right-handed starters. I like Peters to bounce back in front of the home town crowd and for Teheran to finally show some regression. Play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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09-27-17 | Braves +100 v. Mets | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:10 EST). I think we’re getting great value on the superior starter. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (4-8, 4.26 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the Phillies on Friday, giving up two runs off four hits with two walks with five strikeouts over 5.1 innings in the eventual victory. Newcomb is 3-1 in his last six starts while posting a solid 3.86 ERA. Note that he’s been at his best on the road as well with a 3.66 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Robert Gsellman (7-7, 5.38) who was shelled for six runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against Washington on Friday. Gsellman has now walked 15 batters over his last 37.2 innings with just 21 strikeouts in that span. Note that Gsellman owns an uninspiring 4.76 ERA at home this season, as well as a 6.62 ERA in all “night” games. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly evaluate and assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Gsellman has another long night ahead of him. As mentioned off the top, great value on the underrated Newcomb in this matchup. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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09-27-17 | Nationals -162 v. Phillies | 5-7 | Loss | -162 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (13-10, 4.41 ERA) who makes his final start before the playoffs, most recently giving up three runs off six hits while strking out seven batters through seven innings in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. Despite the outcome, Roark finishes the regular season on fire, having allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 12 starts since the Mid Summer Classic (note that he’s a solid 7-4 with a 3.84 ERA on the road this season.) The home side counters with the volatile Mark Leiter (3-6, 4.69) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Thursday. Leiter has admittedly looked better of late, but note that he’s still just 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all “night” games this season. I’ll point out as well that Washington is 72-47 (+6.7 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Philadelphia is just 39-74 (-27.7 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, I think Roark and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-27-17 | Mariners v. A's -127 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Oakland A’s (3:35 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez (5-6, 4.35 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Indians on Friday, giving up one run over eight innings in what turned out to be a disheartening no-decision. This is Ramirez’s final start of the year, note that he’s 4-0 with a 2.49 ERA at home, compared to just 1-6 with a 6.09 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Kendall Graveman (6-4, 4.17) who also comes in off a strong outing, giving up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Rangers on Friday. Over 20 innings in September Graveman has posted a sharp 2.70 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. While Graveman is just 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA on the road, note that he’s 5-0 with a 2.79 ERA at home. Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is just 22-29 (-7.3 units) in all day games this year, while Oakland is 33-27 (+8.8 units) in all day games. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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09-26-17 | Mariners -121 v. A's | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (12-5, 3.03 ERA) who gave up two runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Thursday. This was his second start of the DL and it was actually a lot better than his first. But with those two “tune-ups” under his betl, I think we’ll see Paxton return to form here. Note that to go along with his solid 3.03 ERA he also sports a sharp 1.13 WHIP and 10.3 K/9 (is 8-4 with a 3.43 ERA in all “night” games as well.) The home side counters with Daniel Mengden (2-1, 3.30) who comes in off a win against the Tigers on Wednesday, going seven scoreless and striking out four. Here’s another pitcher whose peripheral’s don’t support his record and ERA. Also note that Mengden owns a poor 5.06 ERA at home this season. The M’s have been at their best against the worst teams this year, going 36-26 (+2.2 units) against clubs with losing records, while conversely, the A’s have struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 38-41 (-2.7 units) against losing teams thus far. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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09-26-17 | Marlins v. Rockies -147 | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 18 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). I don’t think that the the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Urena (14-6, 3.55 ERA) who held the Mets to two runs over eight innings in a 9-2 victory on Wednesday. Urena is absolutely defying the odds right now, as his peripherals all suggest he’s been extremly lucky to this point: his K/9 is just 6.0 his BB/9 is a poor 3.2 and his HR/9 is an unremarkable 1.3. In other words, regression seems imminent now that he’s about to take on Coors. The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (5-6, 5.24) who gave up three run off six hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate setback to San Diego on Thursday. Anderson has looked like a different pitcher over three starts since returning from the DL, posting a 1.72 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 7.5 K/9 (owns a very respectable 4.98 ERA at Coors Field this year as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that Miami is just 33-45 (-5.9 units) on the road, while Colorado is 43-32 (2.9 units) at home this season. I think Urena’s “luck” runs out in this tough hitter friendly park. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-26-17 | Orioles -123 v. Pirates | 1-10 | Loss | -123 | 28 h 44 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (11-10, 4.61 ERA), who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Tuesday, giving up three hits with two walks with seven strikeouts. Gausman would go on to induce ten groundball outs and had 24 called strikes as well. Gausman has turned the corner over the last month and will now look to improve upon his respectable 9-6, 3.99 ERA record in all “night” games. The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Williams (6-9, 4.18) who gave up one run over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Williams has admittedly looked better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-6 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this season. I think Gausman is flying under the radar here, not getting nearly enough respect from the bookmakers. Williams has been hit or miss all year, while Gausman appears to be peaking right as the season is coming to a close. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys v. Cardinals +3.5 | Top | 28-17 | Loss | -120 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Arizona Cardinals (8:30 EST). Both teams come into this at 1-1 SU. The Cards have yet to play a home game, so there’s no question that that atmosphere is going to be electric in the building tonight. The Cowboys didn’t do so well in a similar environment, albeit at Mile High on Sunday Night last weekend, getting crushed 42-17 by the Broncos. After losing in Detroit in Week 1, Arizona finally got untracked and posted a victory in Indianapolis last weekend. The Cowboys’ offensive line was a strength last year, but it looked shaky last Sunday. In fact, the entire Dallas offensive unit looked out of sorts. The defense is also now a major issue, with several key injuries in the secondary. And that doesn’t bode well facing Carson Palmer at home. Palmer had 332 passing yards last week to go along with a TD and INT. Cowboys’ QB Dak Prescott threw two INT’s last week and he faces another stiff test, as last weekend the Cardinals allowed 190 passing yards and just 76 rushing yards. I’ll point out that Dallas is 0-4 ATS in its last four road games, while the underdog is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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09-25-17 | Astros v. Rangers +119 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). I think that Andrew Cashner and the Wildcard hopeful Rangers have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Colin McHugh (3-2, 3.44 ERA) who returned from the DL to beat the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run over five innings. McHugh though has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler all season, going a spectacular 2-0 with a 0.83 ERA at home, compared to a 1-2, 5.28 ERA record on the road. Cashner (10-10, 3.44) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in an 8-6 win over the Mariners on Wednesday. Cashner has now posted four quality efforts out of his last five trips to the hill and owns a sharp 3.45 ERA over that span. And if recent history is any precedence, then Cashner has to be feeling pretty confident in this matchup, as when he faced the Astros back on August 30th he’d hold them to one run over eight frames (note that he owns a 2.71 ERA at home as well.) I think McHugh’s road struggles continue against this determined home side and I expect the red hot Cashner to take full advantage. Play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-25-17 | Nationals v. Phillies -128 | 3-1 | Loss | -128 | 25 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to AJ Cole (2-5, 4.43 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. To go along with his unimpressive 4.43 ERA, Cole also owns a poor 1.59 WHIP and 37/23 K/W over 42.2 innings of work. The home side counters with ace Aaron Nola (12-10, 3.56) who comes in off a confidence building gem against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Tuesday, giving up two runs with eight strikeouts over seven innings of work. Nola has now posted 13 quality efforts out of his last 17 trips to the hill, while posting a 128/31 K/W over 111 innings in that time frame (note that Nola has been particularly effective at home this season as well by going 9-4 with a 2.98 ERA.) For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. Often the best indicator we have to properly assess a starting pitcher is “recent form.” Recent form displayed by these two hurlers suggests that Cole has another long night ahead of him. All things considered, I think this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Raiders v. Redskins +3.5 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER SHOCKER is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I think the home side will at the very least, take this one down to the wire. This is a long trip for the Raiders to make cross country. Throw in the national spot light and there’s no doubt that this one favors the Redskins from a situational stand point. Oakland comes in off a 45-20 win over the Jets at home on Sunday, while Washington enters off a hard-fought 27-20 road victory over the Rams (which seems even more impressive now after what LA put up against San Francisco on Thursday night.) So far the Raiders are 14th in the league in passing with 240 yards per contest and lead the league overall in scoring with 33.5 PPG. The defense is ranked tenth in conceding 18 PPG. QB Derek Carr has 492 yards, five TD’s and no INT’s so far this year. RB Marshawn Lynch has 121 yards and a TD thus far. Washington had 229 rushing yards against LA, while throwing just 27 passes. The Redskins got two turnovers and committed zero. So far Washington is ranked 13th in scoring with 22 points per game and 26th on the defensive side in conceding 25. QB Kirk Cousins has 419 yards with two TD’s and no INT’s. Cousins is surrounded by a bunch of offensive weapons on the ground and in the receiving game. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Washington is 15-8 ATS in its last 23 when playing the role of underdog. I think the Raiders finally stumble here and I expect Cousins to have his best game of the year to this point. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | Top | 27-33 | Loss | -119 | 117 h 25 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST). The Seahawks enter off a hard-fought 12-6 win over San Francisco, which now doesn’t seem so bad after what the 49ers put up against the Rams on Thusday night, while the Titans got the better of Jacksonville 37-16 on the road. The Hawks struggled in their opening game in Green Bay and then had to hold on for dear life against the 49ers. So far Seattle’s defense has been stout and will remain a strength of the team moving forward (13 PPG conceded thus far.) QB Russell Wilson was 23 of 49 for 198 yards and a TD last weekend. So far Wilson has struggled this season. The silver lining for the Hawks’ offense last week was that it did have 131 rushing yards. Tennessee looked poor against Oakland and great against Jacksonville. So how should we judge the Titans at this point? It’s difficult and the sample size is too small. We’ll absolutely have a much better idea where the team truly stands after this weekend though. The Seahawks are a dangerous team, one which will be getting after Titants’ QB Macus Mariota throughout. Wilson will also be looking to atone for some early lacklustre play. Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a win against a division rival, while Tennessee is 0-2 ATS in its last two in the same position. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Seahawks. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Rangers v. A's -116 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (4:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Martin Perez (12-11, 4.70 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Mariners on Tuesday, giving up one run over six innings. Perez has looked better of late, but still owns just a 6-7, 4.33 ERA record in all “night” games. The home side counters with Jharel Cotton (8-10, 5.81) who returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. Cotton has been hit or miss this year, but I’ll point out that Oakland is 3-1 (+2.2 units) in its last four against southpaws, while Texas is just 2-4 (-2.6 units) in its last six against right-handed starters. I like Cotton to outduel his inconsistent counterpart and for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Oakland. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Red Sox -136 v. Reds | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (1:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (5-5, 4.86 ERA), who after a stretch of complete dominance, is coming off back-to-back poor outings, most recently giving up five runs over two innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Orioles on Monday. The home side counters with Jackson Stephens (2-0, 4.80) who also comes in off an outing to forget, allowing five runs (including two home runs) over 3.2 innings against St. Louis on Tuesday. Note that Stephens posted a 4.92 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in Triple-A this year. Neither starter instills much confidence right now, but Fister has the pedigree and track record to get back on track with the playoffs on the horizon. Certainly Boston also gets the big nod at the plate in this matchup. This line could easily be larger in my opinion, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Browns v. Colts +1 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 145 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ind Colts at 1:05 ET. The Browns and Colts meet Sunday at the Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis, with both teams looking to avoid 0-3 starts to the 2017 season. The Browns fought hard in a season-opening 21-18 home loss to the Steelers but were much worse last Sunday, losing 24-10 in Baltimore to the Ravens. The Colts 'flipped that script,' getting routed 46-9 out in LA against the Rams in Week 1, before losing 16-13 in OT last Sunday at home to the Arizona Cardinals. Browns rookie QB DeShone Kizer had a solid season debut, going 20 of 30 for 222 yards with one TD and one INT (85.7 QB rating), while also adding 17 rushing yards and a TD run. However, he suffered through a 'nightmare' of a game this past Sunday, interrupted with a migraine headache in the second quarter after four ineffective series; a three-and-out, a lost fumble, an interception and a punt. Kevin Hogan replaced him and went 5 of 11 for 118 yards with one TD and one INT. Kizer said the headaches are hereditary and that he hasn't had one crop up in a game since high school. He received medication, underwent concussion protocol, and finally received clearance to return in the third quarter with Baltimore up 21-10. He would finish 15 of 31 for 182 yards without a TD pass, three INTs and a lost fumble (27.3 QB rating). Once again, the Browns are showing no signs of a running game, averaging 75.0 YPG on 3.3 YPC. A silver lining is a defense that's allowed 22.5 PPG on 313.5 YPG, after allowing 28.3 PPG on 392.4 YPG last season. Luck remains sidelined and the Colts decided that Scott Tolzein was not an option, so the quickly traded for New England's Jacoby Brissett. It was anybody’s guess as to how Brissett would play because last week was his first week that he ran the first-team offense in practice. He was still wearing a wristband with the play calls on it during the games. However, all in all, he showed plenty of promise. Yes, the interception he threw in OT set up the Cards' game-winning FG but as RB Frank Gore noted, "He's going to be just fine. He played the with type of confidence where you would have never guessed he’s only been here for a little bit.” Brissett was 22 of 40 for 267 yards, zero TDs and that one 'killer' interception. After allowing 46 points against the Rams, the Colts D held the Cards to just 16 points. The Indianapolis Colts need a victory here in order to avoid their first 0-3 start since the 2011 season and the Browns could play the perfect foil. Cleveland is off a 1-15 season and enters on a 14-game road losing streak, last winning a road game back in October of 2015! I realize that Brissett has thrown 92 passes in the regular season without a TD pass but he's got an excellent target in T.Y. Hilton plus TE Doyle has 10 catches (on just 11 targets) in his first two games. As for the Colts D, if it can hold the Cards to 16 points (in OT), the struggling Browns shouldn't be much of a problem. The fact that the Colts have won SEVEN of their last eight games against the Browns, makes taking Indy even easier, as does the fact that Cleveland is just 1-20 SU in its last 21 road games! Good luck...Larry |
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09-24-17 | Broncos -3 v. Bills | 16-26 | Loss | -102 | 114 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (1:00 EST). Denver comes in with a ton of momentum after destroying the Cowboys 42-17 last week. Buffalo though has for the most part been a disaster after two weeks, barely holding on for a victory over the lowly Jets in Week 1, before suffering a 9-3 loss to Carolina last weekend (lucky in my opinion to have even covered the spread in that one.) Broncos’ QB Trevor Simien decimated the Cowboys vaunted defense for 231 passing yards and four TD’s to just one INT. RB CJ Anderson had 118 rushing yards on 25 carries. WR Demaryius Thomas had six catches for 71 yards. Both the run game and the passing game are firing on all cylinders right now for Denver. But not to be outdone, the Broncos look even better on the defensive side of the ball, last week holding the Cowboys offense to a mere 268 total yards, including RB Ezekiel Elliot to just eight yards on nine carries. Von Miller was impressive with two sacks and two tackles for a loss. Bills’ QB Tyrod Taylor was just 17 of 25 for 126 passing yards, along with 55 rushing yards in last week’s pathetic effort. RB LeSean McCoy had a paltry nine yards on 12 carries. Buffalo’s silver lining so far this year has been on the defensive side of the ball, allowing a total of just 255 total yards last week and posting six sacks on Cam Newton. But now that unit faces a white hot Broncos unit, one which I think will dominate and expose a group which has yet to be truly tested this year. I’ll point out as well that Devner is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four after accumulating more than 150 rushing yards in its previous game, while Buffalo is just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 after allowing 15 points or less in its previous contest. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish, play on the Broncos. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Falcons -2.5 v. Lions | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 114 h 20 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). It’s a short week for Detroit, which beat the Giants on Monday night. Atlanta also comes in at 2-0, beating Chicago and then Green Bay (both convincingly.) Atlanta has looked impressive in the early going, not succumbing to a “hang over” after last year’s devastating Super Bowl loss. Matt Ryan and the offense, both the receivers and RB’s, look like they haven’t lost a step whatsoever. And the Falcons have also looked sharp defensively, coming out on top in two tough games to open the season. Detroit has also looked good, getting by a struggling Giants team 24-10 on Monday. QB Matt Stafford was 15 of 21 for 122 yards and two TD’s. The Lions had the early lead and turned to the run game through most of it, accumulating 138 yards. The defense looked stout as well by sacking Eli Manning five times and holding New York to 270 yards of offense. But stopping Manning and the Giants’ impotent offensive line is one thing, while slowing down the gun-slinging Matty Ice and the Falcons’ high-flying offense is quite another. I’ll point out as well that ATL is 8-2 ATS in its last ten road games, while Detroit is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against the NFC. The Falcons did a great job of containing Rodgers, so I have a hard time seeing Stafford doing much better. Atlanta could be a much bigger fav in this spot I think. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-24-17 | Twins -165 v. Tigers | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (12:10 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakes are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (12-8, 3.94 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs while striking out four over three innings in a loss to the Yanks on Tuesday. Berrios ran his pitch count up early and got the hook. Previous to that though Berrios had put together two consecutive quality outings and note that he’s got to be feeling confident in this position, as despite the venue he’s been at his best in all “day” games by going 7-0 with a 3.78 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Buck Farmer (4-4, 7.11) who most recently was shelled for five runs over 2.2 innings in a loss to the A’s on Monday. Since re-joining the Detroit rotation Farmer has been blasted for 19 runs over 20.1 innings of work (is an absolutely atrocious 1-3 with an 11.65 ERA at home as well.) For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have to properly judge a hurler is “recent form.” Recent form displayed by these starters suggests that Farmer has another long afternoon ahead of him. In my opinion, Berrios and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa +13 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 102 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* BIG-TEN PERFECT STORM is on Iowa (7:30 EST). Penn State has so far dominated to open the 2017/18 campaign, going 3-0 and giving up just 14 points in the process. Iowa is also 3-0 and comes in off an easy victory over North Texas last weekend. Note that this sets up as a “triple-revenge” scenario for the Hawkeyes. Last year the Nittany Lions won 41-14. So far Penn State has averaged 47 points through the first three games, most recently handling Georgia State 56-0. QB Trace McSorely was 18 of 23 for 309 yards and a TD, while RB Saquon Barkley had four catches for 142 yards and a TD. Iowa also looked sharp in its 31-14 win over North Texas, going for 21 unanswered points in the second half. In all three different backs recorded double-digit carries for the Hawkeyes. Toren Young led the charge with 78 yards on 19 carries, while Ivory Kelly-Martin had 74 yards and two TD’s. QB Nathan Stanley was 16 of 27 for 197 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. I’ll point out that Penn State has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of 10.5 to 14 points, while Iowa has excelled by going 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records. Iowa is always tough at home and while I’m obviously not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hawkeyes can keep this one competitive late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | Utah State v. San Jose State OVER 55.5 | Top | 61-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 4 Goin' Over Total is on Utah St/San Jose St Over at 7:30 ET. We have some Mountain West Conference action on Saturday night, as the Utah State Aggies, who opened 1-2 in non-conference play, will travel to San Jose for their MWC opener. The Spartans have played four non-conference games, going 1-3. Both teams have many questions offensively but both defenses are a mess. which has me looking at the over. Utah State's Kent Myers was 9 of 23 for 54 yards before being knocked out of the team's last game in the third quarter when he was hit on the return of a pooch punt. Head coach Matt Wells said he "got dinged" and is uncertain if he will miss any time moving forward. Jordan Love replaced Myers and threw a 75-yard TD pass on his second throw. The Spartans used four quarterbacks in their 56-14 loss to Utah and the team's third signal caller, Josh Love, was the charm. The sophomore passed for 183 yards and had several long connections with WR Bailey Gaither, who had a career-high 125 yards on eight receptions. Utah St has allowed 39.3 PPG (123rd), including just 13 points to Idaho St. Against Wisconsin and Wake Forest, the Aggies have given up 105 points, or 52.5 per. San Jose State is allowing 41.2 PPG (125th), including holding Cal-Poly to just 13. Subtract that contest and the Spartans have allowed an average of 50.7 PPG. You get my drift. This one's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-23-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates +108 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 108 | 26 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). Both of these starters have looked brilliant at times this year and really poor in others. Ultimately I believe that the home field advantage factor can’t be overlooked in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (11-7, 3.09 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with four walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. This was Lynn’s second consecutive start in which he’s gone five or fewer innings while also giving up three earned runs. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (11-11, 4.13) who gave up four runs off three hits while striking out four over five innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. Cole has also strung together a couple of duds after an extended streak of excellence, but note that the Cardinals are just 38-40 (-2.7 units) on the road this year, while Pittsburgh is 40-36 (+1.5 units) at home. I like Cole to outduel his struggling counterpart and get back on track in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | San Diego State v. Air Force +3.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* MOUNTAIN-WEST PERFECT STORM is on Air Force (7:00 EST). SDSU upset Stanford and has broken into the Top 25 because of it. Suffice it to say, I think this conference matchup sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Aztecs after their big upset win. Air Force on the other hand will be eager to return to form after falling to Michigan late last weekend. But as stated off the top, after back-to-back win over Pac-12 opponents, I think SDSU comes out flat here. In all SDSU posted 353 yards against Standford, while limiting the Cardinal to just 80 passing yards. Stanford also uncharacteristically turned the ball over three times. San Diego State QB Christian Chapman was 21 of 29 for 187 yards and a TD, while RB Rashad Penny had 175 yards. The Falcons fell away late in their 29-13 setback to Michigan. Air Force only tried one pass and completed it, a 64 yarder by QB Arion Worthman to Ronald Cleveland. The Falcons though had 168 rushing yards. SDSU is playing pretty good defensively right now, but it still doesn’t possess a Power Five-caliber line, so I’m expecting Air Force’s option offense to look a lot better tonight. I’ll point out as well that San Diego State is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Air Force is 7-2 ATS in its last nine as an underdog. SDSU is 6-1 ATS in the last seven in this series, but I think this lop-sided trend starts to correct itself this evening. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | Red Sox -132 v. Reds | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Boston Red Sox (4:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (5-6, 4.15 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and one walk across six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday, also striking out seven. Rodriguez has performed well of late, posting a 2.55 ERA and 24/6 K/W over 17.2 innings spanning his last three trips to the hill (note that he owns a very respectable 3.59 ERA in all “day” games this season.) The home side counters with Robert Stephenson (5-5, 5.01) who comes in off a strong outing against the Pirates on Sunday, going six scoreless while striking out eight. Stephenson has been pretty good of late, but note that the Reds are just 8-25 (-15.8 units) against southpaws this year, while Boston is 70-47 (+11.6 units) against right-handed starters. I like Rodriguez to outduel his counterpart and for the hard-hitting visiting side to take full advantage. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-23-17 | Pittsburgh +7.5 v. Georgia Tech | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* ACC PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:20 EST). Pittsburgh won its opener but has dropped its last two games, both against Top 10 teams, getting outscored 92-35 in the process. Georgia Tech lost by one point to Tennesee in Week 1, before then earning a victory over lowly Jacksonville State in its most recent. The Yellow Jackets’ game against UCF was cancelled because of Hurricane Irma last week, so the possibilty of “rest” leading to “rust” is a very real factor in my opinion. Georgia Tech’s offense is completely centered around the run, currently ranked first in the nation with 372.5 rushing yards per game, while ranked just 123rd in passing yards per contest. The Panthers gave up 572 passing yards to Oklahoma State last week, but just 104 on the ground. Clearly the visitors’ gassed secondary catches a big break this week though with the Yellow Jackets’ run heavy offensive scheme. Pitt QB Ben Dinucci had 228 yards and a TD, but he had two INT’s as well. Overall the Panthers had 103 rushing yards. Georgia Tech had 210 yards rushing against Jacksonville State, while holding JSU to just 189 total yards and three turnovers. In their first game the Yellow Jackets posted 535 rushing yards in what turned out to be a heart-wrenching double OT loss to Tennessee. Ultimately though I think Pittsburgh comes in and at the right moment, catching a Georgia Tech team flat-footed after the extra time off. I’ll point out as well that the underdog and the road team are 4-0 ATS in the last four games in this series. Grab as many points as you can, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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09-22-17 | Rangers v. A's -127 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Nick Martinez (3-6, 5.47 ERA) who has bounced around from the bullpen and Triple-A all year. To go along with his poor 5.47 ERA, Martinez also sports a 1.35 WHIP and 5.3 K/9 rate, while posting a 5.70 ERA in all road games thus far in the majors. The home side counters with Kendall Graveman (5-4, 4.39) who went two scoreless innings against the Phillies on Saturday in what turned out to be a rain-shortened no-decision. Over his last two starts Graveman has now allowed just one run over 8.1 innings of work. Note that while Graveman is just 1-4 with a 6.39 ERA on the road, he’s a spectacular 4-0 with a 2.98 ERA at home. Note as well that Texas is just 36-41 on the road, while Oakland is 42-33 (+11.2 units) at home. I think this line could easily be much higher. Value swings to Oakland. Good luck…Larry |
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09-22-17 | Virginia +11.5 v. Boise State | Top | 42-23 | Win | 100 | 79 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF MONTH is on Virginia (8:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? I’m not at all. I do think however that the Cavs can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Virginia enters off a 38-18 home win over UConn on Saturday, while Boise State enters off a 28-14 home victory over New Mexico last Thursday. The Cavs had a 24-0 halftime lead and never looked back last weekend, outgaining the Huskies 626-432. So far Virginia is 17th in the country in passing with 325.3 YPG and 83rd overall in scoring with 27.7 points. The Cavs have been even better defensively though so far, allowing just 20.7 PPG. QB Kurt Benkert has 976 yards, seven TD’s to just one INT thus far, while RB Jordan Ellis has 219 total yards and three major scores to this point. Boise State led by just 14-7 after three quarters last week, before pulling away in the fourth. Note that the Broncos won the game despite being outgained 277-264, by losing the first down battle 18-12 and the time of possession 33:04 to 26:56. So far Boise State is ranked 60th in scoring with 32 PPG, while ranked 69th in scoring defense in conceding 24.7. Broncos’ QB Montell Cozard is 33 of 48 for 348 yards, five TD’s and one INT, while also leading the team in rushing with 179 yards. Note though that Virginia is 7-3 ATS in its last ten on the road, while Boise State is just 2-11 ATS in its last 13 at home. Ultimately I feel the Cavs offense can keep this one close, giving the visitors a chance for an upset at the end. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-22-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays +149 | 1-8 | Win | 149 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). Marco Estrada just signed a one-year, $13 million dollar extension with the Jays between this start and his last one. Suffice it to say, I think Estrada comes to play today. The vistors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (12-11, 4.73 ERA) who gave up two runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out eight over seven innings in a victory over Baltimore on Thursday. In his previous outing he was rocked for seven runs over four innings by the Rangers last Friday. Tanaka has looked better overall since the All Star break, but note that despite that he’s still just 4-6 with a ballooned 4.16 ERA on the road. Estrada (9-8, 4.84) has struggled most of the year, but he’s been turning the corner finally over the last month, posting a respectable 3.60 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over four September starts (note that he’s 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home.) Additionally I’ll point out that New York is just 11-13 (-6.6 units) as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Toronto is 5-4 (+2.9 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range this season. Great value here, as I expect Estrada to be the difference maker. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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09-22-17 | Cardinals -147 v. Pirates | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:05 EST). I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers tremendous value in this matchup. The Cards hand the ball to Michael Wacha (12-8, 4.02 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits while stirking out seven over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Saturday. Previous to that though Wacha had allowed just four earned runs over three innings. The home side counters with Ivan Nova (11-14, 4.20) who was feared that he’d have to miss this start due to a shouder issue, but the 30-year old has now been cleared to go. Nova started off the season on fire, but has dropped off considerably in the second half, posting a poor 6.22 ERA over 11 trips to the mound. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have to properly judge a hurler is “recent form.” Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Nova has another long night in store for him. The correct call is Wacha in this one, lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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09-21-17 | Rams v. 49ers +3 | Top | 41-39 | Win | 100 | 74 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco 49ers (8:25 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The 49ers weren’t expecting to make the playoffs this year, but at 0-3 and with a three-game road trip on deck, Thursday night essentially becomes a “must win” game for San Francisco. It’s a short week as well, which always favors the home side no matter the situation. LA looked good in beating an Andrew Luck-less Colts team, but came back down to Earth in last week’s 27-20 setback at home to the Redskins. There’s no question that the Rams look better under new coach Sean McVay, but they haven’t gotten around the corner quite yet. LA QB Jared Goff was just 15 of 24 for 224 yards and one TD, while RB Todd Gurley had 88 yards and a score in last week’s setback. In San Francisco’s 9-6 loss in Seattle QB Brian Hoyer was 15 of 27 for just 99 yards. However, RB Carlos Hyde had 124 yards on 15 carries. The big news of course was San Francisco’s defense though, which looked very good for a second straight week; make sure to keep your eyes on LB NaVorro Bowman, who had ten tackles on Sunday. I’ll point out as well that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four as a road fav of three points or less, while the 49ers are 4-1 ATS in their last five as a home dog of three points or less. A great oveall “situational” play which is backed by strong and relevant trends. I like the more desperate team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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09-21-17 | Nationals -133 v. Braves | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Washington Nationals (7:35 EST). For this pick, I’m concentrating completley on the starting pitching. Tanner Roark has officially turned a corner and looks to finish up the season strong, while Braves’ veteran RA Dickey is once again stumbling towards the finish line. Ultimately I feel that Roark should be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. Roark (13-9, 4.43 ERA) gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over these very Braves on Thursday. Over his past ten trips to the hill Roark has posted a solid 3.19 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 9.7 K/9 (note that he’s 7-3 with a 3.84 ERA on the road.) Dickey (9-10, 4.41) was most recently rocked for five runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Saturday. Over three starts in September Dickey has posted a deplorable 10.02 ERA and 2.09 WHIP (note that he owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA at home as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is 65-31 (+23.7 units) this year in all “night” games and 68-45 (+4.6 units) against right-handed starters, while Atlanta is just 46-56 (-2.1 units) in all night games and 52-69 (-9.2 units) against right-handed starters. I’m expecting Roark to come in razor focused here and I have a hard time seeing Dickey matching pace. Value swings to the hard-hitting Nationals, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-21-17 | Temple v. South Florida -20.5 | Top | 7-43 | Win | 100 | 73 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Florida (7:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Temple is coming off a 29-21 home victory over Massachusetts, while South Florida stormed to a 47-23 home victory over Illinois last weekend. Note that the Bulls play with revenge today after the Owls scored the 46-30 victory in the series last year. Last week Temple QB Logan Marchi was 22 of 37 for 248 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Marchi has put the team on his back and so far has 767 passing yards and a 5/0 TD/INT ratio. RB Ryquell Armstead had 81 yards on 17 carries. The Owls defense looked a little shaky though, while they did only allow 61 rushing yards, the secondary was exposed in allowing 377 passing yards. Bulls’ QB Quinton Flowers was 15 of 27 for 280 yards, four TD’s and one INT in last week’s rout. So far Flowers has 678 passing yards and an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. Note though that Flowers also has 243 rushing yards. RB Darius Tice had 105 yards on 12 carries last weekend. The USF defense also looked stout, allowing 354 total yards to the Fighting Illini, including a 6 for 15 mark on third downs. I think it’s interesting to note as well that Temle is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 17.5 to 21 points range, while USF is 6-3 ATS in its last nine as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I think the Bulls’ defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. Lay the points with confidence, play on USF. Good luck…Larry |
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09-21-17 | Indians v. Angels OVER 8.5 | 4-1 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over Indians/Angels (4:05 EST). When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to have eclipsed the posted number. The hard-hitting visiting side hands the ball to Danny Salazar (5-6, 4.52 ERA) who was moved to the bullpen back on September 5th after he failed to get out of the first inning of that start. Note that Salazar owns a poor 5.56 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Parker Bridwell (8-2, 3.71) who comes in off a gem against Texas on Saturday, going six scoreless while striking out seven in the victory. Note though that previous to that Bridwell had been shelled for 19 runs over 24 innings spanning five trips to the hill. Additionally I’ll point out that Bridwell’s peripherals (4.56 FIP, 6.0 K/9) suggest that immediate regression is on the horizon after his latest performance (note that he owns a pedestrian 4.11 ERA at home this season as well.) These teams combined for 11 runs in the Indians’ 6-5 win yesterday and I believe all signs point to a similar final combined result here as well. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-20-17 | Rangers v. Mariners -151 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -151 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST). I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (9-10, 3.40 ERA) who gave up five earned runs over 4.1 innings in a loss to these very Mariners on Thursday. Cashner had looked solid over three outings previous to this dud, but note that he’s still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.04 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Felix Hernandez (5-4, 4.19) who returned from the DL to face the Rangers last week, going four innings and giving up one run while posting a solid 3/0 K/W in the no-decision. With the Mariners sitting just a couple of games back from the Twins for the Wildcard spot, Seattle can ill afford to let any favorable matchups like this one get away. I think Cashner’s recent struggles carry over here. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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09-20-17 | Diamondbacks -150 v. Padres | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:10 EST). I like Arizona to get back on track this evening after last night’s setback. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (14-5, 2.74 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings while striking out ten in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Ray has now posted double-digit strikeouts in four straight trips to the hill and has won all five of his starts since returning from the DL with a 1.39 ERA, 0.77 WHIP and 55/6 K/W in only 32.1 innings of work (note that Ray has been at his absolute best on the road this year as well by going 8-1 with a 1.33 ERA.) The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (7-7, 4.15) who gave up one run over six innings in an unfortunate loss to the Twins on Wednesday. Lamet has looked great in the second half with a 3.00 ERA over 11 starts, but note that his 4.1 BB/9 continues to be an area of major concern (also note that when Lamet faced Arizona in June he was blasted for seven runs.) I’ll additionally point out that Arizona is 2-1 (+1 units) in its last three after giving up six or more runs, while San Diego is just 1-2 (-1 units) in its last three after scoring six or more runs. Enough is enough. I like Ray to outduel Lamet and I expect the now re-focused and hungry hard-hitting visiting side to take full advantage. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-20-17 | Royals v. Blue Jays -123 | 15-5 | Loss | -123 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). I think the Jays will build off their 5-2 win yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Junis (7-2, 4.15 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits while striking out one over five innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Thursday. Junis has looked decent of late but note that despite a 5-2 record, he still owns a pedestrian 4.75 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Brett Anderson (3-3, 5.73) who gave up two runs while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against the Twins on Thursday. Anderson has also looked pretty good for his new team, giving up just eight runs over 22 innings of work. I’ll point out though that KC is interestingly just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after scoring two runs or less in its previous contest, while Toronto is 2-1 (+1 units) in its last three after holding its opponent to two runs or less in its previous outing. I’m going to give Anderson the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side tonight. Play on the BLUE JAYS. Good luck…Larry |
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09-19-17 | Rockies -106 v. Giants | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the Colorado Rockies (10:15 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe (both on the mound and at the plate.) The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (10-7, 4.41 ERA) who comes in off a poor start against the red hot Diamondbacks on Wednesday, allowing four runs over 3.2 innings of work. Marquez has been decent on the road this year though, going 4-3 with a 4.01 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Johnny Cueto (7-8, 4.58) who was rocked for four runs off six hits and four walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. This is Cueto’s worst season ever in the majors since his rookie year (1.41 WHIP and just 2-3 with a 4.60 ERA at home.) Note that Colorado is 39-28 (+15.1 units) against the division this year, while San Francisco is just 23-42 (-20.1 units) against division rivals this season. I think Marquez will outduel and outlast his inconsistent counterpart and in a scenario like that, the value absolutely swings to the hard-hitting visiting side. Play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-19-17 | Indians v. Angels -105 | 6-3 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a legitimate factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (10-5, 3.21 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a victory over Detroit on Wednesday. Clevinger has been on quite the tear of late, allowing just one earned run over his last 23.2 innings of work. Tyler Skaggs (2-5, 4.37) will have his hands full in this matchup, but he will be feeling confident after throwing seven shutout innings in a 9-1 win over the Astros on Wednesday. Skaggs has posted back-to-back strong efforts with an elite 14/2 K/W in that span. Additionally, I thnk it’s interesting to note that Cleveland is just 11-12 (-6.4 units) this year on all Tuesday night contests, while LA is 17-6 (+13.2 units) in the same position. The Tribe just took three of four from the Royals over the weekend and they now have to transition across country for a late night West Coast game. LA took two of three from the Rangers this weekend and I think it offers great value in this position. Classic letdown sport for Cleveland, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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09-19-17 | Dodgers v. Phillies +167 | 2-6 | Win | 167 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). The Phillies shocked the Dodgers yesterday and I think they have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well. The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish (9-12, 4.08 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the light-hitting Giants on Wednesday, going seven shutout innings in the victory. Previous to that though Darvish had lost three straight behind a disgusting 9.49 ERA (note that he’s just 7-8 with a pedestrian 4.31 ERA in all “night” games this year.) The home side counters with Aaron Nola (11-10, 3.60) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out 11 over seven innings in a victory over Miami on Wednesday. Nola has now posted a 19/4 K/W over his last 12.1 innings of work and note that he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd as well by going 8-4 with a 3.01 ERA (is also 10-6 with a 3.83 ERA in all night contests.) Amazingly, these two teams are moving in opposite directions right now, with LA at 5-12 (-18.6 units) in September, while Philadelaphia is 9-8 (+3.4 units) this month. I like Nola to outduel Darvish at home. Great value, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-18-17 | Lions v. Giants -3 | Top | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on the New York Giants (8:30 EST). I think New York is the more “desperate” side tonight and ultimately I believe this will prove to be a deciding factor in the final outcome of this game. The Giants came out flat in their 19-3 Opening Week loss to the Cowboys. That was without WR Odell Beckham Jr. though. The Lions rallied from a 17-9 deficit in the third quarter to win 35-23 over the Cardinals in Week 1. But if recent history is any precedence though, then New York has to be liking its chances for a bounce back performance tonight,because when these teams met in December last year, it was the Giants which prevailed 17-6 at home. Detroit QB Matt Stafford was 29 of 41 for 292 yards, four TD’s and a pick last week. The ground game did virtually nothing though, which does make the Lions’ offense very one-dimensional and thus, pretty easy to game-plan against (finished by averaging just 81.9 YPG on the ground last year.) Golden Tate was another standout with 107 yards receiving. Giants’ veteran QB Eli Manning had a terrible night in Week 1, finishing 29 of 38 for 220 yards and a pick. New York fell behind early and was forced to abandon the run. Manning himself was forced to throw a lot of short dump passes, as he was constantly under pressure. The silver lining for New York though was its overall play on the defensive end, holding Dallas to under 20 points and just 392 total yards of offense. I’ll also point out that Detroit is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 on the road and only 10-13 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while New York is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 at home and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 as a favorite. OBJ is back and that makes the Giants very dangerous offensively. Detroit’s achilles heel is its play on the road and I expect that to be the case again here. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-18-17 | Mets v. Marlins -154 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Matt Harvey (5-4, 5.82 ERA) who allowed five runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings (also four walks) in a setback to the Cubs on Wednesday. Harvey has struggled since re-joining the rotation and note that he’s been at his worst on the road all year by going just 2-4 with a 6.18 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Dan Straily (9-8, 3.95) who gave up eight runs over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. Starts like that though have truly been few and far between for Straily this season (in fact, out of the 29 trips to the hill he’s made this year he’s allowed more than four runs just twice!) and he’ll now look to bounce back and improve upon his respectable 4-3, 3.27 ERA record in front of the home town crowd. I have zero faith in Harvey and believe this is a golden opportunity for Straily (one which I expect him to take full advantage of.) Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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09-18-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles -105 | 10-8 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). Dylan Bundy has been better at home than on the road and I expect that trend to carry Baltimore to victory tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Doug Fister (5-7, 3.91 ERA) who was on quite the streak before allowing six runs off six hits over four innings in a loss to the A’s on Wednesday. Over a four-game stretch previous to that he’d posted a 1.50 ERA, but clearly he took a big step back once again. Note that Fister is just 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA in all “night” games as well. Bundy (13-9, 4.12) comes in off a gem against Toronto on Tuesday, allowing one run off five hits while striking out eight in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. It was Bundy’s sixth quality effort out of his last seven trips to the hill. To go along with his respectable 4.03 ERA, he also owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP (note that he’s 7-5 with a 3.82 ERA at home.) I think it’s interesting to note that Boston is just 7-9 (-3.6 units) this season when playing on a Monday, while Baltimore is 12-6 (+5.6 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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09-18-17 | Twins +153 v. Yankees | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 19 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (7:05 EST). For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. His last start aside, Yankees’ starter Jaime Garcia has been consistently inconsistent all year. Twins’ ace Ervin Santana (15-7, 3.45 ERA) on the other hand has been stready all season and he comes in off a gem against the Padres on Wednesday, holding the Friars scoreless over six innings while striking out seven, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. Santana had admittedly struggled over three starts previous, but he was able to get back on course with this latest effort and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his spectacular 9-2, 2.74 ERA record on the road. Garcia (5-9, 4.43) gave up one run off five hits and one walk while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Wednesday. Despite this decent performance, Garcia still hasn’t completed six frames in any of his six starts for the Yanks (note that he’s just 1-5 with a 4.31 ERA in all home contests this season.) Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 11-8 (+4.7 units) in its last 19 against teams with winning records, while New York is just 20-21 (-4.3 units) in the same position. I like Santana to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart. Great value, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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09-17-17 | Dodgers v. Nationals -142 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Nationals (8:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-7, 3.59 ERA) who had his last start skipped over to give him some extra rest. Ryu last pitched against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday and was unfortunate to receive a no-decision after allowing one run with five walks over six innings. Note though that in his previous start he’d been shelled for six runs over four innings. The home side counters with Stephen Strasburg (13-4, 2.64) who comes into this one on top form, most recently going eight scoreless in a victory over Philadelphia on Sunday, allowing two hits and striking out ten. Strasburg threw 70 percent of his pitches for strikes and didn’t allow an opponent to get past first. The Nationals’ ace comes into this one having thrown 34 straight scoreless frames with an elite 33/3 K/W over his last four combined starts. As solid as Ryu has been, Strasburg comes into this one on a completely different level in my opinion. A very fair price indeed considering that, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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09-17-17 | Cowboys -2 v. Broncos | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Cowboys (4:25 EST). Dallas looked dominant in all three phases in its victory over the Giants in Week 1, while the Broncos had to hold on for dear life in their Opening Week victory over division rival San Diego. The Cowboys’ Ezekiel Elliot had 104 yards rushing and caught five passes for 36 yards last week. QB Dak Prescott was 24 of 39 for 268 yards and a TD to TE Jason Witten. Denver’ QB Trevor Simien was 17 of 28 for 219 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. RB CJ Anderson had 81 yards on 20 carries. The Broncos would also give up three TD passes to Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers, getting outscored 14-0 in the fourth quarter. I’ll point out as well that Dallas is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 follwing a victory, while Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against clubs with winning records. Even though the Cowboys didn’t dominate offensively last week, the special teams and defense was on point. Denver on the other hand looked shaky offensively and then fell apart defensively down the stretch as well. That doesn’t bode well facing this dangerous and confident Cowboys side. The correct call in this one is on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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09-17-17 | Titans -1.5 v. Jaguars | 37-16 | Win | 100 | 124 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 2 Las Vegas Insider is on the Ten Titans at 1:00 ET. The Tennessee Titans went 9-7 last season, missing the postseason by losing a tie-breaker to the Houston Texans for the AFC South title. However, with Marcus Mariota coming off a solid season (19-10 TD to INT ratio) and RB Marco Murray running for 1,287 yards as both offensive stars operated behind an outstanding OL, many felt as if the Titans would be "the team to beat" in the AFC South in 2017. However, the Titans lost 26-16 at home to the Raiders last Sunday (note: the Raiders are a VERY good team!). As for the Jags, since an 8-8 season back in 2010, the team opened 2017 as the owners of six consecutive losing seasons, going 22-74 (.229), overall. So what did the Jags do last Sunday? Their D accumulated 10 sacks and held the Houston Texans (coming off back-to-back AFC South titles) to a single TD and 203 total yards in a dominating 29-7 victory. So much for preseason expectations. That said, I'm not even close to ready to bail on the Titans after that opening-week loss. Mariota has the ability to wheel out of trouble unlike Houston's Savage and while Watson does have that ability, he came in down 19-0 and the Jags just "kept coming." In his first-ever regular season game, the rookie wasn't able to handle it. That WON'T be the case with Mariota. Also, no way Murray will be held to just 44 yards on 12 carries, again. Fournette ran for 100 yards in his NFL debut, as the Jags ran the ball 39 times (155 rushing yards), against just 21 pass attempts. That allowed QB Blake Bortles, who was clearly on the 'hot seat' in the preseason (if Henne could play at all, he would have won the starting job!) to play without any real pressure. He was was mistake-free (no TOs) but completed 52.4% for a pathetic 125 yards (had one TD pass). That's what happens when your defense (10 sacks and 203 yards allowed) and running attack, controls the game. I can't see Fournette having another big game against the Titans rush defense, as Tennessee allowed an average of 88.3 YPG on the ground in 2016, ranking second in the entire NFL (just 4.0 YPC). Let’s see how Bortles plays if Jacksonville has to play from behind? Series history is not on my side, as the home team has won six straight meetings between these two teams and eight of the last 10, overall (last time a road team won a game in this series was back in December of 2013!). However, I remain pretty high on the Titans and I won't forget that the Jags limped into this season 22-74 over their last six seasons. A surprising win in Week 1 of the 2017 season doesn't much change my feelings towards Jacksonville. I'll close by noting that the Jags have won back-to-back games just TWICE since the 2014 season. Give me the better team at this poinstspread. Good luck...Larry |
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09-17-17 | Browns +9 v. Ravens | 10-24 | Loss | -125 | 116 h 59 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you that you should “sprinkle a little on the money-line” in this one? Of course not. I do however think that the Browns can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I think Baltimore comes in a bit complacent here after its big 20-0 road win over AFC North opponent Cincinnati last weekend. The Browns though almost shocked the Steelers in the 21-18 setback to Pittsburgh, getting great play from rookie QB DeShone Kizer and above average play from the defense. Kizer was sacked seven times, but would finish 20 of 30 for 222 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer though would also run for 17 yards and another major score. And as mentioned above, the defense was good, holding the Steelers to just 35 rushing yards (and that’s without top pick DE Myles Garrett in there.) Ravens’ QB Joe Flcco was 9 of 17 for 121 yards, one TD and a pick. Flacco though didn’t even attempt a pass in the second half, with the team focusing on the run after jumping out to the early lead. Baltimore’s defense looked fantastic as well, but it faces a much more versatile pivot this week. I’ll point out that Cleveland is 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road in this series, while Baltimore is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four off a straight-up victory of more than 14 points. Kizer is a difference maker here. With a game under his belt, I think he’ll keep this one competitive. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Browns. Good luck…Larry |
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09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints +7 | 36-20 | Loss | -115 | 116 h 59 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST). While I’m not going to call for the outright victory, I do think that the hungry and motivated home side will keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The crowd will be going crazy on Opening Night at the Mercedez-Benz Superdome against the defending champs. The Pats were smashed 42-27 at home by the Chiefs last weekend and I think they look primed for another letdown here as well. New England’s vaunted defense would allow 537 yards, while QB Tom Brady was 16 of 36 for 267 yards and no TD’s. New receiver Brandin Cooks dropped four passes. New Orleans comes home off a tough 29-19 MNF setback to Minnesota. The Saints gave up 470 yards to the Vikes and allowed them to convert on 9 of 14 third down attempts. RB Adrian Peterson had just 18 yards on six carries. QB Drew Brees was 27 of 37 for 291 yards and a TD. I’ll point out that New England is just 1-2 ATS in its last three “dome” games, while New Orleans is 12-9 ATS in the same position (also interesting to note that the Saints are 2-0 ATS the last two seasons after playing on Monday Night Football.) Does this game mean more to New England? Hardly! I like the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-17-17 | Bears +7.5 v. Bucs | Top | 7-29 | Loss | -135 | 116 h 58 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). The Bucs haven’t played this year and don’t really know “what they have yet.” The Bears are 0-1 but came very close to upsetting the visiting Falcons last weekend in the eventual 23-17 setback. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely expect the hungry visiting side to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Tampa was scheduled to face Miami in Week 1, but Hurricane Irma postponed the game. Note that Chicago plays with revenge here as well after falling 36-10 in Tampa last November 13th. Bears’ QB Mike Glennon was 26 of 40 for 213 yards and a touchdown, while rookie Tarik Cohen had 66 rushing yards and eight catches for 47 yards and a TD. The Falcons were the highest scoring team in the league last year, so the 372 yards given up has to also be looked at in a favorable light. The Bucs turn to Jameis Winston, who had 4,090 yards, 28 touchdowns and 18 INT’s last season. The team acquired DeSean Jackson in the offseason as a big time playmaker, but with the team having to focus on “real life” issues the last couple of weeks, one has to wonder where Tampa Bay’s head is at right now? I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Tampa Bay is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the same points range. I think we have a battle on our hands here, not a blowout. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | Diamondbacks -137 v. Giants | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 28 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:05 EST). I’m going to give Zack Grienke the nod on the mound in this matchup. I’m also going to give the Diamondbacks the big nod at the plate. With those two factors working in our favor, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Greinke (16-6, 2.99 ERA) gave up two runs off five hits while striking out six over seven innings in a loss to the Rockies on Monday. Greinke has been better at home than on the road, but he’s been sharp in all “night” games regardless of the venue by going 14-5 with a 2.66 ERA thus far. The home side counters with ace Madison Bumgarner (3-8, 3.55) who gave up six runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Over his past two outings he’s now been shelled for 11 runs spanning 11 innings of work. Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is 53-32 (+18.2 units) this year following a victory, while San Francisco is just 39-53 (-14.2 units) following a loss. I like Greinke to easily match or go longer than Bumgarner today and in a scenario like that, the advantage definitely swings to the hard-hitting visiting side. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | Clemson v. Louisville UNDER 56 | 47-21 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* SItuational Stunner is on the under Clemson/Louisville (3:30 EST). Conference matchups are always the most important and this game is clearly a big one as No. 3 Clemson gets ready to battle with No. 16 Louisville in ACC action on Saturday. The Tigers comes in off a 14-6 home win over Auburn last weekend, while Louisville hung on for a 47-35 victory over North Carolina on Saturday afternoon. When these teams played last season it was a shootout, as Clemson came away with the 42-36 home victory back on October 1st. That of course was with DeShaun Watson leading the charge for Clemson. Last week though it was the Tigers defense which was the difference maker, producing a whopping 11 sacks. Overall Clemson had the 284-117 yardage advantage. So far the Tigers are ranked 50th in scoring offense with 35 PPG, while ranked fifth in scoring defense in conceding just 4.5 PPG. QB Kelly Bryant has 417 yards, a TD and an INT, while also leading the team with 136 yards on the ground and an additional three TD’s. RB Travis Etienne has 81 yards and a TD. Louisville had a 705-401 yardage advantage over the Tar heels last week. So far the Cards are ranked 31st in scoring with 41 PPG, while ranked 97th in scoring defense in conceding 31.5 PPG. QB Lamar Jackson has been a standout with 771 yards and five passing TD’s, as well as leading the team with 239 yards on the ground and another three scores. RB Malik Williams has 149 yards on 13 carries. I think it’s interesting to note that Clemson has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last eight games played in the month of September, while Louisville has seen the total go under the number in four of its last six when playing the role of underdog. This one has the feeling of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | Kentucky v. South Carolina OVER 49.5 | Top | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 3 Goin' over Total is on Kentucky/South Carolina Over at 7:30 ET. The Kentucky Wildcats and the South Carolina Gamecocks play their respective SEC openers on Saturday in Columbia at Williams-Brice Stadium. Both teams have opened 2-0, with Kentucky winning at Southern Miss 24-17 and then back at home 27-16 over Eastern Kentucky. Meanwhile, the Gamecocks, coming off a 6-7 season in Will Muschamp's first year at South Carolina (lost an exciting 46-39 bowl game in OT vs USF!), have opened with back-to-back outright wins on the road as underdogs. South Carolina opened with a 35-28 win at NC State (+ 7 1/2 )and then followed with a 31-13 win at Missouri (+ 3). Kentucky QB Stephen Johnson looked much better in the Wildcats' second game (he had a shaky opening against Southern Miss), throwing for 224 yards on 15 of 22 passing with a touchdown, while also rushing six times for 48 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Benny Snell added 103 rushing yards on 19 carries (one TD) and fellow RB Sihiem King chipped in 61 yards on his nine carries. Kentucky's defense held Eastern Ky to 318 yards of total offense in the win. and enters this game allowing 16.5 PPG on the season (35th) on 341.0 YPG (56th) However, that Kentucky D will be severely tested Saturday by resurgent South Carolina. The Gamecocks may have lost their bowl game at the end of last year's season but they scored 39 points and gained 481 yards in that defeat. QB Bentley threw for 390 yards and three TDs against USF. He's back this season and while he's thrown for a more modest total of 402 yards after two games, he has four TDs and just one INT in leading his team to back-to-back road wins, while South Carolina has topped 30 points in each contest. South Carolina's star so far has been WR Deebo Samuel. The junior has touched the ball a total of 14 times in two games, resulting in a pair of 97-yard KO returns for TDs, two rushes for 30 yards and a TD plus has 10 receptions for 128 yards and two scores. "He's really good with the ball in his hands and he's also really good when it's not in his hands," head coach Will Muschamp told the media. "He works extremely hard and that's why he has tremendous respect with his teammates." You think? Defensively, the Gamecocks have given up a lot yardage, as its 927 yards allowed in two games would attest. That's an average of 463.5 YPG, which ranks 108th in the nation. However, South Carolina has only allowed 20.5 PPG, by forcing five turnovers and holding opponents to five scores in eight red zone opportunities. One wonders if South Carolina can continue to give up that many yards without it coming back to 'bite them.' That why I'm looking at "over" in this one. Kentucky has a well-balanced offense which has yet to explode. It could do just that here, as the Wildcats come in on a three-game winning streak in this series. However, that also gives this rejuvenated South Carolina team a strong revenge motive. Kentucky's defense has so far looked good but let's not forget it allowed 31.3 PPG last season, on about 434 YPG. Also, a closer look reveals that in five road games and its neutral-site bowl contest, the Kentucky D allowed an average of 37.8 PPG. South Carolina comes in averaging 33.0 PPG in 2017 and both games have been on the road. The Gamecocks should easily top 30 points in this one at home, making this game my 10* Goin Over Total for Week 3. Good luck...Larry |
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09-16-17 | Brewers -139 v. Marlins | 4-7 | Loss | -139 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Davies (17-8, 3.67 ERA) who gave up one run while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Sunday. Davies has now given up just five earned runs over his past six starts and note that he’s been particularly effective on the road by going 9-2 with a tiny 2.04 ERA this season. The home side counters with the volatile Adam Conley (6-7, 5.23) who was shelled for four runs off nine hits with two walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Braves on Saturday. Unfortunately for Conley a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s a poor 2-4 with a 7.56 ERA in Miami so far this season. Additionally I’ll point out that Milwaukee has excelled in this spot for bettors this season, going 41-35 (+11.5 units) following a victory, while Miami has done poorly by going just 36-42 (-3.4 units) following a loss. This line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | A's v. Phillies -115 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Phladelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I like the home side to bounce back here off yesterday’s 4-0 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Kendall Graveman (5-4, 4.48 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Astros on Sunday, giving up one run over six innings for the victory. I’m not reading too much into that effort though as previous to that Graveman had been rocked for nine earned runs over his previous ten innings of work. Note that Graveman has been horrible on the road as well this year by going just 1-4 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA. The home side counters with Ben Lively (3-6, 3.86) who comes in off a loss despite giving up just three runs off six hits over eight innings in the eventual 3-2 setback to the hard-hitting Nationals on Sunday (walking just one and striking out seven.) Since re-joining the big leagues, Lively has a solid 3.94 ERA and a 28/9 K/W over 32 innings of work. I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three following a victory, while Philadelphia is 2-1 (+1.1 unit) in its last three following a loss. Graveman’s road issues get carried over here and Lively continues his strong form to end the season. All things considered, I feel a great price. Play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh +11 | 59-21 | Loss | -105 | 138 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (12:00 EST). Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little on the money line” in this one? No I am not. However, I do think that the underdog home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Oklahoma State comes in off a 44-7 drubbing of South Alabama on the road last Friday, while Pitt fell 33-14 on the road at Penn State last weekend. Note that when these teams played last year, it was an absolute battle. One which the Cowboys won, but only by the skin of their teeth (45-38 on Sept. 17th, 2016.) Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another nail-biter here as well. OKS is ranked 10th in the country in scoring with 51.5 PPG, while coneding only 15.5 PPG, ranked 31st. QB Mason Rudolph is 45 of 62 for 638 yards and six scores. RB Justice Hill has 159 yards and a TD to lead the ground game thus far. It’s interesting to note that despite the setback to the Nittany Lions last Saturday, the Panthers actually outgained Penn State 342-312 and won the first down battle 24-14. The difference maker was three costly turnovers, otherwise Pitt had a legitimate chance at taking that one outright. So far Pittsburgh is ranked 103rd with 21 PPG on offense, while ranked 77th in allowing 27 PPG. QB Max Browne is 36 of 56 for 278 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Quadree Oilison had 187 yards rushing and two major scores. I’ll point out though that the Cowboys are just 1-4 ATS in their last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Pittsburgh is 8-6 ATS in its last 14 when playing the role of underdog. With a game at home against TCU up next, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-16-17 | UCLA v. Memphis +3 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 138 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Memphis (12:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. UCLA comes in off a 56-23 home win over Hawaii on Saturday. Memphis comes into this one fresh, as it hasn’t played since beating Louisiana Monroe 37-29 back on August 31st. The Tigers were scheduled to play UCF last weekend, but the Hurricane ruined that meeting. UCLA has to travel across the country for this one. Last week the Bruins actually lost the yardage battle 515-505 to the Warriors. They also lost the time of possession by a 36:05 to 23:55 margin. Despite that though the Bruins are ranked 11th in scoring so far this year with 50.5 PPG. They are however ranked 104th on the defensive side of the ball in conceding 33.5 PPG thus far. QB Josh Rosen has been solid with 820 yards, nine TD’s and no INT’s. The run game has been non-existent though, as Bola Olorunfunmi leads the way with just 63 yards and one TD. The Tigers have been game-planning for this one for two weeks. Memphis struggled at times against the Warhawks, but still managed to find a way to get the win. All told the Tigers ran for 319 yards and four touchdowns, with Darrell Henderson leading the way with 169 yards on the ground and two scores. I think it’s interesting to note that UCLA is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine games played in the month of September, while Memphis is 5-3 ATS in its last eight in September. With a conference tilt at Stanford next weekend, it’s not too hard to imainge the Bruins in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. A great situational play overall, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-15-17 | Arizona v. UTEP +21 | Top | 63-16 | Loss | -100 | 125 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UTEP. I think Arizona gets caught “looking past” lowly UTEP this evening to its conference game at home next weekend against Utah. Arizona comes in off a deflating 19-16 loss to Houston last week, while UTEP fell 31-14 at home to Rice. Wildcats’ starting QB Brandon Dawkins was 17 of 29 for 178 yards and no TD’s. Khalil Tate was 5 of 8 for 41 yards. JJ Taylor was a stanout with 87 rushing yards. Arizona looked decent defensively, holding Houston to 383 yards. The Wildcats were a disaster on the defensive side of the ball last year and in my opinion, the book is still out on the unit to this point. Miners’ QB Ryan Metz was 18 of 33 for 203 yards, a TD and no INT’s last week. Metz has yet to find his stride this year, but he does come in off a decent campaign in 2016. The running game is weak, but the receiving corps is strong, keep your eyes on Kavika Johnson, who had six catches for 67 yards last week. The Miners struggled to stop the run last Saturday, allowing 300 rushing yards, but they’d also post two sacks and allow just 131 passing yards. UTEP’s defense catches a break here in facing the pass heavy offense of Arizona. Also note that the Miners are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Arizona is just 3-6 ATS in its last nine non-conference games and only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up to the hungry Miners. Play on UTEP. Good luck…Larry |
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09-15-17 | Blue Jays -110 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (8:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to JA Happ (8-10, 3.73 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing on Sunday, giving up two runs (one earned) off five hits while striking out nine over six innings of work in the eventual victory over Detroit. Happ owns a solid 3.73 ERA, 8.8 K/9 and 3.1 BB/9 over 125.1 innings this season. The home side counters with the volatile Bartolo Colon (6-12, 6.41) who was shelled for five runs off six hits over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Royals on Sunday. Colon had looked decent over a ten start stretch in posting a 3.94 ERA, but he came unravelled in this one. To go along with his poor 6.41 ERA overall, Colon now also has a sub-par 1.62 WHIP and 5.7 K/9 for the season. Often the best indicator we have to properly judge starting pitching is “recent form.” All signs point to another long night for Colon here, while I expect Happ to continue his recent strong play and to find a way to outduel his venerable counterpart. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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09-15-17 | Illinois v. South Florida -14.5 | 23-47 | Win | 100 | 122 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on South Florida (7:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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09-15-17 | Royals +214 v. Indians | 4-3 | Win | 214 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:10 EST). I’m betting against the Indians 22 game win streak here as I think Jason Vargas will build off his last outing and I look for the Royals to bounce back from yesterday’s close 3-2 defeat. Vargas (15-10, 4.15 ERA) most recently gave up one run off four hits while striking out three over five innings in a victory over Minnesota on Sunday. Vargas closed the first half with a 2.62 ERA and 1.15 WHIP, so this latest effort would indicate that the veteran could be poised to finish the campaign strong. He’ll certainly be hoping so and will have his hands full with a suddenly re-focused Trevor Bauer. Bauer (16-8, 4.33) comes in off a victory over Baltimore on Sunday, giving up two runs off seven hits over six innings of work. Bauer has now posted five straight victories. But sometimes winning can lead to complacency. Of course everyone wants to knock off the Tribe and end their ridiculous win streak and I think that Vargas has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup. All good things must come to an end and for Cleveland, the bell tolls for thee this evening. Play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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09-15-17 | UMass +10.5 v. Temple | 21-29 | Win | 100 | 121 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Massachusetts (7:00 EST). While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do think that the 0-3 Minutemen will be the much more desperate side and I think that will translate into a much closer game than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. UMass enters off a loss against Old Dominion, while Temple comes in off a victory against Villanova. The Minutmen seem poised to put some points on the board though. Note that in last week’s 17-7 setback to OD, UMass didn’t commit a single turnover. The offense though managed only 332 yards on 73 plays. QB Andrew Ford was not terrible, going 21 of 32 for 236 yards and a TD. Listen to what head coach Mark Whipple had to say afterwards: “The defense played well enough to win,” Whipple assessed. “The offense shot themselves in the foot. We didn’t execute enough to win. We need to get back to work tonight. It’s a short week and we have to get ready for Temple on Friday night. Credit Old Dominion. They made plays. We didn’t play well up front (on offense) and we took some sacks we didn’t need to.’’ Temple QB Logan Marchi was shut down against Notre Dame, but bounced back to go 20 of 34 for 274 yards and no INT’s last week. The red zone offense faltered though as the team had to settle for FG’s. Now the Owls face another tough defense in the minutemen. Temple looked sharp defensively against the Wildcats, but now faces a desperate team hungry to get off the schneid. Note that UMass is 2-1 ATS in its las three after three or more consecutive ATS losses, while Temple is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I think Temple gets caught “looking ahead” to its tough conference road game against USF next week, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-15-17 | Dodgers -140 v. Nationals | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Wood (14-3, 2.81 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rockies on Saturday, allowing five runs off eight hits while striking out just two over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Saturday. Wood’s earlier numbers were clearly unsustainable over the entire course of the season, but I don’t think it’s time to overreact either. Wood has all the tools in place to return to form and finish strong as his patch of mediocrity could still become distant memory with one last surge. And note, Wood has been as good as they come on the road, going 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Edwin Jackson (5-5, 4.14) who gave up five runs off seven hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the lowly Phillies on Saturday. Jackson looked decent in August with a 2.94 ERA, but has since regressed again, allowing ten runs over his last nine innings of work. Additionally note that LA is 17-11 this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Washington is interestingly 0-1 this year as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on Wood bouncing back and I look for him to easily outduel his “gas can” counterpart. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-14-17 | Astros -134 v. Angels | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors look to rebound off of yesterday’s humbling 9-1 defeat and hand the ball to Brad Peacock (10-2, 3.05 ERA) who is 8-2 with a 3.33 ERA, 1.29 WHIP and 124/40 K/W in 18 starts this year. Note that Peacock has been at his best on the road this season as well by going 6-0 with a 2.95 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco (6-13, 5.19) who gave up four runs off six hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to Seattle on Friday. Nolasco has now served up a home run in three consecutive outings and owns a 1.92 HR/9. Note that he’s just 3-5 with a 4.98 ERA at home this year as well. Recent form is often the best indicator we have when it comes to properly judging starting pitching. I like Peacock to continue his strong play on the road, to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart and I look for the Astros to answer off yesterday’s beatdown loss. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-14-17 | Texans v. Bengals -5 | Top | 13-9 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:25 EST). Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 1 setbacks, as Houston fell 29-7 at home to Jacksonville, while Cincinnati would get shut out 20-0 at home to the Ravens. Note that the Bengals play with revenge here after falling 12-10 in Houston last year. The Texans looked horrible on both sides of the ball last week. QB Tom Savage was sacked six times and had two fumbles, one which was returned for a TD. DeShaun Watson came in and he was 12 of 22 for 102 yards and one TD and one pick. In all though the offensive line gave up ten sacks. The defense allowed rookie RB Leonard Fournette run for 100 yards on 26 carries and 155 yards overall, while coming up with a total of zero sacks and zero forced turnovers. The Bengals also looked brutal, with QB Andy Dalton going 16 of 31 for 170 yards, four INT’s and one fumble. The run game produced just 77 yards on 22 carries. The defense looked decent though, allowing a total of 268 yards overall. Linebacker Vincent Rey had 11 tackles. I’ll point out though that Houston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road (also 0-7 ATS in its last seven “Thursday” night games), while Cincinnati is 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival. Dalton has the pedigree and track record to shake off one lousy game, while Watson will be starting his first ever profesionall football contest tonight. Houston would appear to be still “hung over” with having to deal with the Hurricane, while Cincinnati is focused and ready to atone for the pathetic Week 1 effort. Lay the points, play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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09-14-17 | Mariners v. Rangers -109 | 10-4 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 12 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). I like the home side to answer after yesterday’s humbling 8-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Felix Hernandez (5-4, 4.28) who has been re-activated after spending the last five weeks on the disabled list. Hernandez draws a tough opponent in his first start back, as the Texas offense has the fifth best team OPS in MLB since the mid-summer classic (also note that Hernandez is just 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (9-9, 3.19) who gave up one run off four hits and one walk while striking out four over seven innigns in a no-decision against New York on Saturday. Cashner has looked great in the second half, posting eight quality starts out of his last ten trips to the hill. And note that he’s been at his best at home as well by going 4-3 with a very respectable 2.23 ERA. I think the oddsmakers are giving Hernandez much too much respect here. Casnher has quietly been dominating and has a major advantage of being at home in this matchup. Great value, play on the revenge-minded Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-14-17 | New Mexico v. Boise State UNDER 58.5 | Top | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under New Mexico/Boise State (8:00 EST). I think this number is just a little high. Both teams come into this Mountain West Conference battle at 1-1. The Lobos fell 30-28 at home to New Mexico State, while the Broncos loss 47-44 to Washington State in OT. Note that when these teams played last year, Boise State won 49-21. Suffice it to say, I think the situation now lends itself to what will be a much lower-scoring defensive battle. New Mexico had 430 yards of total offense, including 176 on the ground last week. Expect to see a lot more of RB Jay Griffin IV today, who had 64 yards and a TD in that one. Clearly the Lobos need to have a much better effort defensively though after allowing 500 yards, including 400 through the air. As horrible as the Lobos were in that one, they’re still ranked 79th in total yards allowed this year (391 YPG), while allowing 22.0 PPG. I believe Boise State comes in flat footed on the short week. The Broncos actually had a late 21 point lead before the defense crumbled and allowed 21 unanswered points which led to OT and the eventual disastrous loss. So far the Broncos are ranked 85th in total offense with 381 YPG, while ranked 51st on defense in conceding 335 and 30 PPG overall. With both teams looking to rebound, I feel the focus falls on the defensive side of the ball for each. And note that New Mexico has seen the total go under the number in six of its last ten on the road, while Boise State has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last 11 “Thursday” night contests. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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09-14-17 | Braves v. Nationals -139 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 3 h 15 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals. With Miami making a pitching change, I’m dropping the Fish as the first 8* pick of my STP and instead going to go with the Nationals. Washington opened in the -165 range in this matchup, but has since dropped to a more investable level. And I definitely feel that the value is now firmly on the hard-hitting home side. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (10-12, 4.74 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Marlins on Friday. Foltynewicz has now served up 20 home runs in 150 innings of work for a 1.2 HR/9 (note that he’s a poor 5-7 with a 5.40 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with Tanner Roark (12-9, 4.48) who gave up three runs while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Thursday. Roark is firing on all cylinders of late, posting a solid 3.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 9.1 K/9 over his last ten starts. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Foltynewicz has another long night ahead of him. I like Roark to continue his recent surge and i look for him to outduel his volatile counterpart. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-13-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). I had a play on the Orioles last night and they’d suffer a horrible bottom of the ninth loss. While I’m not one to normally “flip-flop” on a team from night to night, MLB is different than all other sports in that each contest much be looked at individually because of the starting pitchers. And that’s the case here, as I look for Marcus Stroman to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart today and for the Jays to ultimately build off yesterday’s come from behind victory. The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (10-10, 4.99 ERA) who most recently was rocked for five runs over three innings in a loss to the Yanks on Thursday. Gausman’s strikeout numbers are decent, but to go along with his poor 4.99 ERA he also sports a crummy 1.59 WHIP. Stroman (11-7, 3.18) comes in off an outing to forget against Boston, allowing four runs while striking out six over six innings against Detroit on Friday. All of the damage though came on a grand slam to Nick Castellanos. I’m not reading too much into that outing, as previous to that Stroman had held the opposition to two or fewer earned runs in six of his last seven starts. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get back on track as Stroman has an elite 2.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I think Stroman is the correct call here. Other than the one mistake to Castellanos in his last outing, Stroman was otherwise perfect. He’s been consitent all year and he’s consistently been at his best at home. Toronto is looking to gain positive momentum to the end the season so that it has something to build off for next year. All things considered, I believe this is a great price. Play on the Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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09-13-17 | Marlins +100 v. Phillies | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Miami Marlins (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers even realize. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Dan Straily (9-8, 3.95 ERA) who gave up four runs (only three earned though) over five innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Thursday. Note that Straily has now given up three earned runs or less in 23 of 29 starts overall this season for a 3.95 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 8.1 K/9. The home side counters with the volatile Aaron Nola (10-10, 3.71) who gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday. Over his last four starts spanning 23.1 innings of work, Nola has posted a 7.33 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Miami is 26-17 (+8.6 units) in its last 43 against clubs with losing records, while Philadelphia is just 16-25 (-4.5 units) in its last 41 in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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09-13-17 | Yankees v. Rays -118 | 3-2 | Loss | -118 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jaime Garcia (5-9, 4.43 ERA) who is 0-2 with a ballooned 5.11 ERA in five starts with New York this season. Note that he’s just 4-4 with a pedestrian 4.52 ERA on the road this year as well. The home side counters with ace Chris Archer (9-9, 4.00) who comes in off an outing to forget against Boston on Friday, allowing eight runs off nine hits while striking out five over three innings. Those types out starts though have been few and far between for Archer this year, who will look to get back on track at home where he’s so far posted a respectable 3.30 ERA. I’ll point out that New York is just 1-2 (-1.5 units) in its last three after scoring one run or less, while Tampa Bay is 3-1 (+2.7 units) in its last four after holding an opponent to one run or less. I like the Rays to build off yesterday’s 2-1 win and to find a way to get the job done tonight as well with what I believe to be the far superior starter backing them on the hill. Play on Tampa Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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09-12-17 | Astros -129 v. Angels | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (10:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander (11-8, 3.74 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits while striking out seven over six innings in a 3-1 win over the Mariners on Tuesday. Verlander looked sharp in his first start for his new team and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his very respectable 7-5, 3.53 ERA record in all “night” contests. The home side counters with Garrett Richards (0-0, 1.13) who earned a no-decision in his first start back from the DL on Tuesday, holding the A’s to one run over 3.1 innings of work. Richards was on a pitch count in that one and he’ll be on a count in this one as well. Additionally I’ll point out that LA is just 33-39 (-5.7 units) this year following a victory, while Houston is 35-20 (+4.2 units) following a loss. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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09-12-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -125 | 4-2 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (7-4, 4.07 ERA) who comes in off a big win over the Dodgers on Thursday, allowing one run off four hits over six innings of work. Gray has been better of late, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.56 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Taijuan Walker (9-7, 3.33) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Wednesday. Walker has won three straight outings while posting a tiny 0.79 ERA, 1.15 WHIP and 21/8 K/W over his last 22.2 innings of work. Note that Walker has excelled in all “night” contests as well this season by going 8-4 with a 3.54 ERA. I’ll point out as well that the Rockies are just 45-46 (-1.3 units) this year in all night games, while Arizona is 59-40 (+14.8 units) in the same position. All things considered, I feel this is a great price. Play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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09-12-17 | Orioles -125 v. Blue Jays | 2-3 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (13-9, 4.12 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget against the Yankees on Monday, allowing five runs over four innings. It was Bundy’s only loss since the All Star break, as prior to that he’d posted five straight quality efforts with a 2.00 ERA and 45/6 K/W spanning 36 frames of work. Note that Bundy has been sharp in all “night” games as well going 10-6 with a 3.32 ERA. The home side counters with Joe Biagini (3-10, 5.29) who gave up five runs off six hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Red Sox on Wednesday. Biagini has for the most part been an absolute disaster this year and note that he’s been at his worst in this postion as well, going just 2-6 with a 5.51 ERA at home and only 3-6 with a 5.70 ERA in all night contests. Additionally I’ll point out that Baltimore is a solid 32-26 (+8.4 units) against the division this season, while Toronto is just 26-38 (-14.6 units) against the division. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos -3 | 21-24 | Push | 0 | 202 h 6 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Denver Broncos (10:30 EST). I’m playing both the side and the total in this game (the Broncos and the UNDER.) Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. Both teams have many questions as the season gets underway. LA is in a new home and has a new head coach. Denver also has a new coach which hopes to get his new team back into the playoffs after missing for the first time since 2011. Last year the Chargers were horrible on defense, allowing 26.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The team made some moves in the offseason to address these issues, including using a fourth and fifth round pick for the secondary. Clearly the unit catches a break in Week 1 though in facing the Broncos run first offense. LA’s offense should once again make some noise this year with veteran QB Philip Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon, but clearly the unit faces a stiff task out of the gate in facing the Broncos elite defense on the road. And Denver’s defense is expected to be even better this eason with the additions of second round pick DE DeMarcus Walker and third round pick CB Brendan Langley. Last year the Broncos were fourth in the league in yards allowed. The pass defense was No. 1, holding teams to just 185.8 YPG. And clearly that doesn’t bode well for Rivers on opening night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting to see a lot of Gordon while the visitors are on offense. The weakness for Denver is on the offensive side of the ball as the team will try to once and for all determine if Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian will earn the starters role. The team did however go out and sign Brock Osweiler as third stringer as well. It’s interesting to note that LA is a money-burning 3-3 ATS in its last six games played in the month of September, while Denver is 6-0 ATS in its last six games played in September. I like the Broncos to step up defensively and do just enough on the offensive side to seal the ATS victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-11-17 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 43.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 202 h 5 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Chargers/Broncos (10:30 EST). I’m playing both the side and the total in this game (the Broncos and the UNDER.) Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. Both teams have many questions as the season gets underway. LA is in a new home and has a new head coach. Denver also has a new coach which hopes to get his new team back into the playoffs after missing for the first time since 2011. Last year the Chargers were horrible on defense, allowing 26.4 PPG, ranked 29th overall. The team made some moves in the offseason to address these issues, including using a fourth and fifth round pick for the secondary. Clearly the unit catches a break in Week 1 though in facing the Broncos run first offense. LA’s offense should once again make some noise this year with veteran QB Philip Rivers and RB Melvin Gordon, but clearly the unit faces a stiff task out of the gate in facing the Broncos elite defense on the road. And Denver’s defense is expected to be even better this eason with the additions of second round pick DE DeMarcus Walker and third round pick CB Brendan Langley. Last year the Broncos were fourth in the league in yards allowed. The pass defense was No. 1, holding teams to just 185.8 YPG. And clearly that doesn’t bode well for Rivers on opening night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting to see a lot of Gordon while the visitors are on offense. The weakness for Denver is on the offensive side of the ball as the team will try to once and for all determine if Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian will earn the starters role. The team did however go out and sign Brock Osweiler as third stringer as well. I’ll point out that LA has seen the total go under the number in its last four as a road dog of three points or less an in ten of its last 11 when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Denver has seen the total dip below the posted number in 15 of its last 21 as a favorite and in 11 of its last 16 in front of the home town crowd. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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09-11-17 | Saints +3.5 v. Vikings | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 199 h 56 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (7:10 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as this one has the feeling of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will win type scenario. New Orleans enters off three straight 7-9 seasons and will be looking to break that trend with a playoff ticket. Minnesota jumped out to a massive start last year, only to fall apart down the stretch and finish 8-8. The Saints’ issue the last few years has been on the defensive side of the ball as the offense has pretty much remained elite with veteran Drew Brees in the pocket. Last year Brees had 5,208 yards, 37 TD’s and 15 INT’s. RB Adrian Peterson will be out to make a statement against his former team tonight. New Orleans used three of its first four picks on defensive players and brought in LB’s Manti Te’o and AJ Klein through free agency over the offseason, so the unit is now finally expected to make some strides this season. Minnesota had a great defense last year, ranked sixth in points allowed at 19.2. The unit should once again be a strength of the team, but clearly it’s going to have its hands full with Brees and company right out of the gates. The Vikes’ offense though was lousy and it’ll be a weak point again this season. The team did bring in WR Michael Floyd. New Orleans’ offense is tried, tested and true. It’s never deviated from its domination over the last three years. The Vikes were fantastic defensively last year, but I think the book is out on the unit still until it can prove itself again this season. The Saints’ will likely be terrible defensively again this year, but that said, we should also now definitely see some improvement moving forward after the offseason re-tooling. The Vikes’ offense is also a big question mark at the moment and that makes the Saints the correct call in this matchup. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-11-17 | Yankees -130 v. Rays | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the New York Yankees (7:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch, both on the mound and at the plate, than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (11-5, 3.91 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against Baltimore on Tuesday, giving up five runs off eight hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision. Sabathia has admittedly been scuffling of late, but note that he’s been at his best on the road this year by going 7-3 with a 3.25 ERA. The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (8-7, 4.58) who comes in off a gem against the Twins on Tuesday, going 6.2 scoreless to earn the victory. I’m not reading too much into one decent outing though, as the southpaw had been shelled for 13 runs spanning 12.1 innings over his previous three starts (note that he’s a poor 4-5 with a 4.71 ERA at home this season as well.) Sabathia is the correct call here as I look for his strong track record of road consistency to get carried over here. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Packers | 9-17 | Loss | -104 | 172 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). I think Seattle is the deeper and more complete team and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The Seahawks won the NFC West title last year and then lost to ATL in the divisional round. Green Bay won the NFC North and then was taken down by the Falcons in the Conference round. Seattle just sent WR Jermaine Kearse and a 2018 second-round draft pick to New York in exchange for Pro Bowl lineman Sheldon Richardson. The Hawks made another move on the same day to acquire CB Justin Coleman from the Patriots for a seventh-round pick. The Seattle defense was already solid, but now it looks downright scary (last season it was eighth against the pass and seventh against the run.) These teams have met five times since 2012 and the Hawks are 3-2. Green Bay though has won the last two, including a blowout 38-10 victory in Week 14. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers went for 246 yards and three TD’s in that one. With Rodgers under center, Green bay will always be a contendor, but a lack of playmakers on both sides of the ball have many wondering if the dynamic pivot will be able to do it all by himself. Seattle had a great pre-season and QB Russell Wilson is finally playing at 100% health. As stated off the top, I won’t be shocked by an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-17 | Rays v. Red Sox -142 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -142 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (1:35 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the Alex Cobb (10-9, 3.64 ERA) who has looked very good of late, giving up one run or fewer in five of his last eight starts. Note though that if Cobb has had one clear weakness this year, it’s clearly been his perfomance on the road where he’s just 4-5 with a poor 4.91 ERA. The home side counters with Rick Porcello (9-16, 4.67) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Blue Jays on Monday, giving up seven runs off ten hits over 5.1 innings. Porcello has been trading good starts with bad of late, but he’s consistently been at his best in all “day” games this season with a very respectable 2.52 ERA. Cobb has been the victim of poor run support all season and all signs point to that once again being a major problem for the hard-throwing right-hander. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-17 | Reds v. Mets -151 | 10-5 | Loss | -151 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Mets (1:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beileve. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano (4-6, 4.62 ERA) who has looked better of late, posting a 2.45 ERA over his last four outings. Romano has been hit or miss this season though overall and is just 2-3 with a 4.58 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with ace Jacob DeGrom (14-9, 3.65) who looks to rebound off his worst start of the year, getting shelled for nine runs off ten hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Tuesday. DeGrom has been scuffling of late, but will now look to “right the ship” at home, a place where he’s posted a very respectable 3.39 ERA at (also note that he has a 3.52 ERA in all day games.) The moral of this play is that I’m not reading too much into Romano’s last performance and I’m also not over-reacting to DeGrom’s most recent “dud.” I like DeGrom to get back on track at home and outduel his young counterpart. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-17 | Ravens v. Bengals -2.5 | 20-0 | Loss | -115 | 169 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is on the Cin Bengals at 1L00 ET. John Harbaugh took over as the Ravens' head coach in 2008 (Ravens were 5-11 in 2007), the same year Baltimore drafted a little-known QB out of Delaware, Joe Flacco. That duo would help lead the Ravens to five consecutive playoff seasons (54-26 regular season record), winning a Super Bowl title in 2012. However, since that 2012 season, the Ravens have had just one winning season over the last four years (10-6 in 2014) and these last two years have seen the Ravens go 5-11 and 8-8. Flacco missed the entire preseason and returned to practice for the first time since the end of June mini-camp this past Saturday. Somewhat surprisingly, the Ravens were a perfect 4-0 in "practice" games, with victories over the Redskins, Dolphins, Bills and Saints. The Bengals stumbled to a 6-9-1 season in 2016, ending a five-year playoff run (six of the previous seven). This preseason, the Bengals opened with a win over the Bucs but then fell to Chiefs, Redskins and Colts to finish 1-3. QB Andy Dalton and WR A.J. Green are "big-time" players plus RB Gio Bernard will be joined by speedy rookie RB Joe Mixon (Okla). Cincinnati added a few notable names in the off-season including LB Kevin Minter and OT Andre Smith but the OL is in a state of transition, while the defense will be missing starting LB Vontaze Burfict (three games) and CB Adam Jones (one game), both on NFL suspensions. Baltimore has consistently said that it expects Flacco to be fine for Week 1. However, is a full week to prepare for the regular-season opener in Cincinnati enough? Let me note here that Flacco's thrown just five TD passes and 12 interceptions in eight career games at Paul Brown Stadium. That makes sense when one notes that the Bengals have won and covered the last five years at home against the Ravens. Baltimore has gone 2-6 SU on the road each of the last two seasons, including opening 2-0 on the road in 2016 (wins over 1-15 Cleveland and 3-13 Jacksonville), before losing their final six on the road (1-5 ATS). Was 2016 just a "down year," for Cincy or the beginning of a slide? Let's not ignore that this team has been quite consistent (few roster or coaching changes) and had put together four consecutive seasons of 10-plus wins prior to 2016 and entered last year having gone 19-4-1 SU at home from 2013-15, before going 4-3-1 last year. Cincinnati does own an 18-6-2 ATS record in their last 26 September games and I'm "all over" the Bengals at this 'workable' pointspread (8* on Cincinnati). Good luck...Larry |
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09-10-17 | Jets +9 v. Bills | 12-21 | Push | 0 | 169 h 56 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST). If you called this one “The Toilet Bowl,” not many would argue. New York was just 5-11 last year. Buffalo is also looking to improve and opens the season with a new head-coach and direction with Sean McDermott. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Jets have to be loving their chances today as they’d go on to take both meetings with the Bills last year. Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” Of course not. But I do definitely expect New York to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Josh McCown is under center for the Jets this year and the good news for New York fans is that it would be very hard for him to be any worse than Ryan Fitzpatrick was last season. McCown will be leaning heavily on RB Bilal Powell, who had 722 yards last year. New York had a decent defense last season, allowing 424.4 YPG, ranked 11th overall. The Bills allowed just 16.8 PPG in the preseason, but last year they were rakned 16th in the league with 23.6 PPG conceded. Buffalo’s strength though is once again expected to be on the defensive side of the ball. The Bills averaged just 15.5 PPG in the preseason. Beyond QB Tyrod Taylor and dynamic playmaker LeSean McCoy, Buffalo is thin on the offensive side of the ball. Additionally I’ll point out that it’s interesting to note that the underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last four in this series. I think the Jets above average defense will be able to contain Taylor and allow McCown a chance to keep this one within striking distance. Grab the points, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-17 | Raiders +2 v. Titans | 26-16 | Win | 100 | 169 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland Raiders (1:00 EST). Both teams struggled in the preseason, with the Raiders going 0-4 and the Titans going 1-3. Of course, the preseason means nothing. Most of the time. Both clubs finished second in their respective divisions last season. The Raiders have won 29 of the last 49 in the series, including last year’s 17-10 victory in Nashville in Week 3. QB Derek Carr is back to 100% health after breaking his leg in Week 16 against the Colts last season. Carr will now be handing off to Marshawn Lynch, who the Raiders were able to talk out of retirement. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Amari Cooper and Michael Crabtree, who are considered one of the best WR tandems in the league. The Titans’ Marcus Mariota also suffered a hurrendous leg injury to end the season. Mariota is also 100% ready to go in 2017. As good as Mariota is, the offense’s biggest strength is probably the run game, with three capable backs. I simply feel that Oakland is the deeper team through in all three phases. Also note that the Raiders are 9-3 ATS their last 12 on the road, while the Titans are just 7-21-2 ATS in their last 30 in front of the home town crowd. Grab the points, play on the Raiders. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-17 | Steelers -8 v. Browns | Top | 21-18 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). Pittsburgh won the AFC North with an 11-5 record last year and then fell 36-17 to the Pats in the Championship round. Cleveland was terrible last season, lucky to earn a 1-15 record. The Steelers won both games last year, 27-24 in the first one and 24-9 in the second. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger blowout in the 2017/18 season opener. I have a hard time seeing Cleveland slowing down Pittsburgh’s high-powered offense today. Big Ben is back under center, last year he finished with 3,819 passing yards and a big 29:13 TD:INT ratio. RB Le’Veon Bell is back after posting 1,268 rushing yards with seven TD’s in 12 games. Roethlisberger throws to perhaps the most dangerous tandem in the league in Antonio Brown and Martavias Bryant. Pittsburgh was decent (not great) defenisvely last year, but clearly the unit catches a break in facing the Browns shaky offensive unit. Cleveland will be starting rookie QB DeShone Kizer, who had a decent preseason by going 25 of 49 for 351 yards, one TD and one INT. Kizer will be leaning heavily on RB Isaiah Crowell, who had 952 rushing yards. The Browns struggled defensively and while they should take a step forward this year, the unit still has more questions than answers currently. I’ll point out as well that the Steelers are 6-1 ATS in their last six on the road, while the Browns are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine at home. Divisional contests are always the most important. All signs point to Pittsburgh sending an early message. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | San Diego State v. Arizona State -2.5 | Top | 30-20 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* SEPTEMBER SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Arizona State (11:00 EST). SDSU enters off a 34-17 win over UC Davis, while Arizona State held on for a 37-31 victory over a tough New Mexico State side. The Aztecs were 11-3 last year and then beat Houston 34-10 in the Las Vegas Bowl. But only 11 starters return from that dominant team. SDSU is still expected to compete in the Mountain West with its potent ground attack. Last week the Aztecs rolled up 276 yards on the grounds, led by Rashaad Penny, who had 197 yards and two TD’s last week. SDSU turns to Christian Chapman under center, last week he was 16 of 21 for 221 yards, two TD’s and an INT. The Aztecs defense looked solid last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test in Manny Wilkins and the high-flying Sun Devils on Saturday night. Wilkins threw for 300 yards last week against a dangerous and experienced Aggies team. ASU averaged 33.3 PPG last year and it has seven starters back from that unit this season. Last week the offense put up 400 yards, including 321 through the air. Wilkins was 22 of 27 with two TD’s. WR John Humphrey had 123 yards on seven catches. Arizona State’s defense looked pretty bad last year and it looked flat-footed in Week 1 as well. The secondary catches a break this week though in facing the run heavy Aztec offense. And ultimately I feel this is what it will come down to. The Aztecs don’t have the necessary downfield personel to keep the Sun Devils honest. I like Wilkins and company to have another big night and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | Rockies v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 0 m | Show |
The third 10* RUN-LINE pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (9:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The talent discrepancy on the mound absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. The visitors hand the ball to Chad Bettis (0-2, 4.91 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Giants on Monday. Bettis has now been shelled for 13 earned runs over his last 15.1 innings of work (note that he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with Alex Wood (14-2, 2.57) who gave up four runs with seven strikeouts in a 6-4 loss to the Padres on Sunday. Wood had missed two starts with a minor injury previous to that sub-par outing, but he will be feeling pretty confident that he can bounce back here as note that he’s a spectacular 8-1 with a tiny 2.77 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season (is also 14-1 with a 2.41 ERA in all “night” games.) Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is just 43-46 (-4.6 units) in all “night” contests this year, while LA is 63-34 (+8.8 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Dodgers on the run line. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | 8-7 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
The second 8* RUN-LINE pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 EST). Jhoulys Chacin has dominated at home and struggled on the road this year. I think that strong trend gets carried over here. Chacin (12-10, 3.96 ERA) comes in off a victory against the Dodgers on Sunday, giving up three runs off five hits over seven innings. Note that while he’s a superb 8-3 with a tiny 1.91 ERA at home, Chacin is just 4-7 with a ballooned 6.96 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Zack Godley (7-7, 3.21) who also comes in off a victory, giving up one run while striking out seven over six innings against the Rockies on Sunday. Godley hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been consistent. And note that he’s consistently been at his most consistent in front of the home town crowd by going 3-2 with a respectable 3.51 ERA. I’ll point out as well that San Diego has struggled in this spot for bettors all year by going just 10-22 (-7.5 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Arizona has dominated in this position by going 10-1 (+8 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. All signs point to a blowout, play on the Diamondbacks on the run line. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico -10 | 30-28 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on New Mexico (8:00 EST). The New Mexico Lobos enter off a 38-14 season-opening win over Abiliene Christian. Dating back to last year UNM has now won eight of its last nine and three in a row. QB Lamar Jordan had 213 yards and a TD, while the offense as whole posted 481 yards. The defense limited the Wildcats to just eight yards rushing. Now the Lobos setstheir sites on the Rio Grande Rivalry at Dreamstyle Stadium against New Mexico State. New Mexico State gave Arizona State everything it could handle last week, but eventually fell apart down the stretch, succumbing 37-31. Tyler Rogers looked decent under center, setting a career high in pass completions and attempts. Jason Huntley was another standout with a career high 84 yards rushing. I’ll point out though that New Mexico State has struggled in this spot for bettors, going 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while New Mexico is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 37 points or more. I think the Aggies have a letdown here on their second straight road game and after the near victory was snatched from them in Week 1. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | Rays v. Red Sox -1.5 | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* RUN-LINE pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price as I look for Boston to build off its big 9-3 win last night. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Andriese (5-2, 3.78 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the light-hitting White Sox on Sunday. It was his first start since June 10th and the time off clearly was a factor. Note that Adriese has been particularly pedestrian on the road this year by going just 1-2 with a 4.23 ERA. The home side counters with ace Chris Sale (15-7, 2.85) who gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out six over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Sunday. Admittedly Sale has scuffled of late, but now that the calendar has flipped to September, I’m expecting the southpaw to finish up strong (note that he’s still 6-2 with a 3.03 ERA at home this season.) Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 34-37 (-1.7 units) on the road this year, while Boston is 14-2 (+10.4 units) this season as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. The massive talent discrepancy on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs in my opinion. Play on the Red Sox on the run line. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-17 | Tulane v. Navy OVER 47.5 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 2 Goin' Over Total is on Tulane/Navy Over at 3:30 ET. The Tulane Green Wave beat up on Gambling St in their season opener 43-14 at home, but will have a much tougher go of it this Saturday when they visit Navy–Marine Corps Memorial Stadium in Annapolis to face the Navy Midshipmen. Navy opened its 2017 season with a 42-19 rout of the FAU Owls on the road. Saturday's game will be Navy's home opener and the Midshipmen have gone 24-4 SU at home since the beginning of the 2012 season. In very stark contrast, Tulane owns just 12 road wins (as compared to 46 losses), its previous 10 seasons. Willie Fritz took over at Tulane in 2016, coming from Georgia Southern where he ran a spread option. QB Tanner Lee was not a fit for that offense so he transferred to Nebraska and his two backups left as well. Last year's team did improve offensively, going from averaging only 19.7 PPG in 2015 to 24.7 PPG but it wasn't enough, as the Green Wave went 4-8. However, expectations are high with Kansas St/JUCO transfer Jonathan Banks taking over at QB. He was 10-of 15 for 185 yards (3 TDs / 0 INTs) in the win over Grambling, plus ran for 69 yards and a fourth TD. Tulane ran for 296 yards (averaged just under 230 LY) and I expect Fritz's offense (led by Banks), to be very good in 2017. Navy QB Zach Abey completed just 3 of 10 passes but threw for 110 yards. He ran for 235 (2 TDs), as Navy rolled up 416 rushing yards (6.1 YPG), while scoring 42 points on 526 total yards. Navy's D held FAU to 19 points but don't expect that to be the norm, as the Midshipmen allowed 31.0 PPG in 2016. I'm a huge fan of Niumatalolo and Navy's discipline. The team's 42-19 win over FAU last weekend (gained 526 yards) came despite three rain delays which had the game ending at 1:47am ET! Abey (6-2, 212) is bigger than previous Navy QBs and while he was far from perfect against FAU (completed just 30% with a pick), he did rush for 235 yards and two scores. Tulane also now owns a play-maker at QB (Banks) and Navy's D will have all sorts of trouble keeping the Green Wave out of the end zone. However, Navy averaged 37.9 PPG in 2016, the fourth consecutive season in which the Midshipmen have averaged better than 31.8 PPG. The Over is a 10* play. Good luck...Larry |
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09-09-17 | Louisville -7.5 v. North Carolina | 47-35 | Win | 100 | 138 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on Louisville (12:00 EST). The Cardinals rallied for 35-28 SU win over the Boilermakers in Week 1, but fell large against the spread in the neutral site affair. UNC lost to Cal 35-30 at home on Saturday. Louisville won the yardage battle with Purdue 524-344 last week, but three turnovers kept the game a lot closer than it should have been (although the Cardinals did force four turnovers of their own.) Additionally the defense would also produce a major score. Cardinals’ QB Lamar Jackson was 30 of 46 for 378 yards and two TD’s, as well as running the ball 21 times for 107 yards, but fumbling the ball in the red zone as well. Jaylen Smith led the way through the air with eight catches for 117 yards. UNC led 17-7 at half and 24-21 after three quarters, but it didn’t score again until the game’s final play. The Tar Heels would go on to lose the yardage battle 469-440. The Heels also turned the ball over three times, while forcing only two of their own. QB Brandon Harris was just 7 of 16 for 60 yards and two INT’s. Chazz Surratt was 18 of 27 for 161 yards and two TD’s. RB Michael Carter was a standout with 94 yards and two TD’s. The Tar Heels defense though was destroyed by a QB making his first career start. UNC also has troubles at the QB position. Jackson and company were far from perfect, but still managed to gut out a victory. Suffice it to say I’m expecting the Cardinals to play much more disciplined in this one and I look for them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-17 | Brewers v. Cubs -136 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -136 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). I like the Cubs to find a way to take Game 1 of this series. I had a play on Chicago last night and momentum gets carried over here. The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (11-6, 3.59 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off four hits over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Sunday. Note though that the win was his first in five starts. Nelson is putting together a strong overall season, but if he’s had one weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.56 ERA. The home side counters with John Lackey (11-10, 4.74) who gave up three hits over seven scoreless innings while striking out five in a victory over ATL on Friday. Lackey has struggled at times this year and looked brilliant in others, but does own a respectable 3.99 ERA at home. I like Lackey to build off his latest performance and I expect him to get the better of Nelson on the road. Lay the price, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-17 | Ohio v. Purdue -5 | Top | 21-44 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on Purdue (8:00 EST). Ohio comes in off a 59-0 win over Hampton, while Purdue dropped a hard-fought 35-28 battle with Louisville in its home opener. These schools haven’t met since 1998. Bobcats’ QB Quinton Maxwell was 7 of 9 for 100 yards and one TD and one pick, while Nathan Rourke had 72 passing yards and three rushing TD’s. The run game accumulated 248 yards with AJ Oullette leading the charge with 63 yards on 12 carries. If the run game stalls, then the Bobcats are in trouble. Ohio looked good defensively last week, but clearly that unit faces a much stiffer test on Friday night. The Boilermakers will look to do just that as last week they’d give the Cardinals everything they could handle. QB Elija Sindelar threw for 118 yards and two TD’s, while David Blough had 175 yards and two TD’s (also two INT’s.) Purdue’s defense looked pretty average, but considering the opponent, it wasn’t completely horrible either. The Boilermakers were also able to put up 28 points against the 16th ranked Cardinals and I think they’re going to be able to build off that impressive performance. I’ll point out as well that Ohio is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Purdue is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a fav in the 3.5 to ten points range. The Bobcats’ one dimensional offense proves to be too predicable here. Play on Purude. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-17 | Rays v. Red Sox -127 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I don’t think that home field can be overlooked as a serious factor working in favor of Drew Pomeranz tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (9-8, 3.76 ERA) who had his last start cut short due to a minor shoulder injury. Archer gave up back-to-back home runs and threw eight total pitches before being lifted. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Archer, but he if he’s had one small area of weakness then it’s definitely been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.56 ERA. Pomeranz (14-5, 3.36) gave up four runs off eight hits and two walks while stirking out five over 5.1 innings in a loss to New York on Saturday. To go along with his solid 3.36 ERA, Pomeranz also sports a sharp 1.38 WHIP and 9.4 K/9 (has been at his best at home as well by going 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA.) Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 16-22 (-5 units) this year against southpaws, while Boston is 63-44 (+8.9 units) against right-handed starters. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-07-17 | Cardinals -125 v. Padres | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (9:10 EST). I had a play on the Padres last night and lost. I don’t normally “flip flop” on team’s from one night to the next, but MLB is a different “beast,” in that for the most part it all comes down to the starting pitchers, meaning each contest has to looked at separately. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (10-6, 2.99 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Giants on Saturday, going eight shutout innings and allowing just one hit with four strikeouts. Since the All-Star break Lynn has posted a 1.99 ERA and 1.17 WHIP spanning ten trips to the hill (note that he’s a very respectable 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA on the road thus far as well.) The home side counters with the volatile Clayton Richard (6-13, 4.94) who gave up three runs off eight hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Dodgers on Saturday. Richard has just one win in the second half and owns a poor 4.94 ERA, 1.53 WHIP and 6.7 K/9 for the year. And unfortunately for Richard, a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as he’s just 5-7 with a 4.93 ERA in San Diego so far. I like Lynn to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
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