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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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03-16-18 | Florida State v. Missouri | 67-54 | Loss | -106 | 110 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Missouri (9:50 EST). Florida State lost to Louisville in the ACC Tournament 82-74, while Missouri fell to Georgia 62-60 in the SEC tourney. The Seminoles play at a quick rate, ranked 26th-fastest in the nation, while averaging 82 PPG. However, FSU is pretty ordinary on the defensive end by allowing 74.5 per contest. FSU was just 9-10 in the ACC and it lost three of its final four. In the loss to Louisville the ‘Noles would allow the Cardinals to hit 50.8 percent from the floor and 10 of 16 from range. Missouri averages just 73.5 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end by conceding only 68.3. Jontay Porter would lead the Tigers with 20 points and eight boards in the loss to Georgia in the conference tournament game. I’ll point out though that Missouri is 9-5 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while FSU is already 0-4 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive contests. I think the Tigers’ tough defensive play ultimately proves to be too much for the Seminoles to overcome. Play on Missouri. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-18 | New Mexico State +5.5 v. Clemson | Top | 68-79 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on New Mexico State (9:55 EST). The 28-5 New Mexico State Aggies get ready to battle the 23-9 Clemson Tigers on Friday night and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I like the underdog to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Clemson was 11-7 in ACC action, while the Aggies were No. 1 in the WAC in the regular season and then also secured the conference tournament and the automatic bid to The Big Dance. The Aggies have in fact won the West Coast Conference for five straight years and they enter The Tournament having won six straight. Two players to keep your eyes on today are senior forward Jemerrio Jones, who averages 12.3 points and 18.3 boards per game and guard Zach Lofton, who averages 24.3 points (note that New Mexico State leads the WAC and is ranked fifth in the country in opposing field-goal percentage (39.2 percent) and rebounding margin (9.1.) The Tigers are back in the big dance for the first time in seven years and advanced to the SEC tourney semi’s before falling to eventual champion Virginia. Clemson is also a top tier defensive school, ranked 34th in the nation opposing field goal percentage (41.) Marcquise Reed leads the nightly charge with 15.9 points. I’ll point out though that New Mexico State is a solid 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while Clemson is just 1-3 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing. The Aggies are filled with experienced seniors and they have the defense to match pace with their ACC opponent tonight. As mentioned off the top, everything points to a closer than expected battle. Grab the points, play on New Mexico State. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-18 | Stars -138 v. Senators | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -138 | 24 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* NHL Las Vegas Insider is on the Dallas Stars (7:35 EST). Dallas comes in off a 6-5 shootout loss to Toronto on the road, while the Sens enter off a 7-4 road win over Tampa Bay (its second straight road victory.) Suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for Ottawa as it returns home. The Stars average 2.83 GPG and they concede 2.63. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen gave up five goals on 33 shots to the Leafs to fall to 12-12 with a 2.42 GAA this season, including 8-9 with a 2.13 GAA on the road. Dallas has been struggling offensively of late, so despite giving up five goals and losing in the shootout, the five goals it posted in defeat was still significant. Ottawa averages 2.77 GPG and it concedes 3.38. Craig Anderson gets the call in net and he’s 20-26 with a 3.24 GAA this year, including just 12-15 with a 3.34 GAA at home. I’m not reading too much into a couple of victories in a row for the Senators. Ottawa is a horrible team, especially at home. The Stars come in having lost three straight and they’ll be desperate to break the slide. Note that Dallas is already 3-0 (+3 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses. And that’s bad new for the Senators, who are just 7-15 (-6.4 units) this year after scoring four or more goals in their previous contest. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Stars. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-18 | Nets +9 v. 76ers | Top | 116-120 | Win | 100 | 23 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:05 EST). Brooklyn comes to town off two straight losses, most recently a 116-102 home loss to Toronto on Tuesday. The Nets won’t be playing in the postseason, but I think they’ll at the very least keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch against this highly contented 76ers side which comes in off a come-from behind 118-110 win in New York just last night. Brooklyn averages 105.8 PPG and it concedes 110.2. D’Angelo Russell leads the nightly charge with 16.1 points and 4.8 assists per night. Note that Russell had 32 points in a losing cause to Toronto last time out. Philadelphia averages 107.8 PPG and it concedes 105.6. Note that the 76ers are just 5-7 against the division though. Joel Embiid leads the nightly charge with 23.5 points, 11 boards and 1.76 blocks per night. I’ll point out as well that Brooklyn has in fact excelled in this spot for bettors by going 19-11 ATS this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Philadelphia has struggled in this position by going 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 115 points or more in its previous outing. This is the 76ers third game in four nights, while the Nets come to town having had two whole days of rest. While I’m not going to call for the outright upset, everything points to a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, play on Brooklyn. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-18 | Kansas State +1.5 v. Creighton | 69-59 | Win | 100 | 106 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Kansas State (6:50 EST). Kansas State comes in off an 83-67 loss to Kansas in the Big 12 Semifinals, while Creighton lost to Providence 72-68 in the Big East Quarterfinals. K-State was 22-11 overall this year, but it struggled against Kansas in the conference tournament, letting the Wildcats hit 48.3 percent, while hitting a still decent 46.7 percent itself. Kanas State though would get outscored from range 33-6. Makol Mawien was a bright spot in the setback with 29 points. Note that the Wildcats enter this one averaging 72.4 PPG this season, while conceding 67.9. The Bluejays average 84.3 PPG and they concede 74.2. Creighton finished 22-11 on the year, but it struggled in its loss to Providence, hitting only 42.4 percent from the floor, including only 26.1 percent from range (also made 13 turnovers.) Leading the way in a losing cause was Marcus Foster with 19, while Davion Mintz added 14. I’ll point out though that Kansas State has in fact done pretty well in this spot for bettors by going 4-1 ATS in its last five against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Creighton is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 neutral site affairs and just 1-3 ATS in its last four when playing on seven or more days rest. The Blue Jays’ offense struggled in its last game, which I believe spells doom against this aggressive Wildcats defense. I’m banking on that being the difference maker tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-18 | Butler -1.5 v. Arkansas | 79-62 | Win | 100 | 102 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Butler (3:10 EST). Butler was 9-9 in Big East action this year and it lost to Villanova in the semi-finals of the big East Tournament, while Arkansas was 10-8 in SEC play and it would bow out to Tennessee in the semi’s of its conference tourney. The Bulldogs average 79 PPG and they concede 72.8. Kelan Martin was a bright spot in the loss to Villanova as he’d go on to post 30 points over two tournament contests. Butler has struggled down the stretch, with only three wins out of its last nine games. Arkansas averages 81.1 PPG and it concedes 75.5. Darryl Macon had 19 points in the loss to the Vols in the conference tournament. The Razorback have won four of their last six and they were 5-2 against ranked foes this year, including victories over Auburn and Tennessee. Regardless of how these teams finished this year though, I think that Butler has the advantage here. Experience and depth can’t be discounted in this situation. Arkansas has a tendency to give up points in bunches and combined with their superior defense, I like the Bulldogs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-18 | Providence v. Texas A&M -3.5 | 69-73 | Win | 100 | 99 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* PEFECT STORM is on Texas A&M (12:15 EST). It’s the Big East against the SEC in the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Friday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the Aggies. Providence enters off a 76-66 setback to Villanova in the Big East Conference Tournament Finals, while Texas A&M fell 71-70 to Alabama in the second-round of the SEC tournament. Providence averages 73.7 PPG and it concedes 72.7. The Friars were on the bubble heading into the Big East tournament, but after a run which saw them fall 76-66 in the final to Villanova, they’d go on to finally punch their ticket to The Big Dance. Alpha Diallo was a bright spot in the losing cause with 22 points and ten boards. Texas A&M averages 75 PPG and it concedes 69.8. The Aggies lost their conference tournament game on a last second three-point shot. It was their third straight game which was decided by two points or less. Note though that Texas A&M has averaged 78.4 PPG and conceded just 69 in all neutral court affairs this year. Additionally I’ll point out that Providence is a poor 3-13 ATS in its last 16 non-conference games, while Texas A&M is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after five or six days of rest. The Friars are 203rd in the nation in shooting, which doesn’t bode well facing this tough Aggies defense in my opinion (note that they’re 16th in the country in defensive FG percentage). Lay the points, play on Texas A&M. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-18 | Buffalo v. Arizona -9 | Top | 89-68 | Loss | -106 | 84 h 25 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Arizona (9:40 EST). Buffalo finished 26-8, while Arizona was 27-7. The Bulls snagged the 13th seed in the South Region after winning the MAC Tournament Final over Toledo 76-66 last weekend. Buffalo went on to shoot 45.9 percent from the floor, while holding Toledo to just 36.8 percent. Wes Clark was a standout in the victory with 26 points, five boards, three assists and four steals. Buffalo averages 84.8 PPG and it concedes 75.9. Arizona averages 80.9 PPG and it concedes 71.2. Deandre Ayton had 32 points, 18 boards, two assists and a block in the Wildcats’ 75-61 Pac-12 Tournament Finals win over USC on Saturday. Buffalo had a great defensive performance against the Rockets, but Arizona is a clearly a completely different “animal.” Led by Ayton, the Wildcats are firing on all cylinders and I look for their depth and overall talent to be too much for Buffalo to overcome in the end. Lay the points with confidence, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-18 | Pistons +8 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (9:00 EST). The desperate 30-37 Detroit Pistons are in Denver to take on the 37-31 Nuggets on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Detroit won five straight when it brought over Blake Griffin from LA, but the team has since lost 11 of its last 14 to fall 5.5 games behind Miami for the final spot in the East. The Pistons started their road trip off with a terrible 110-79 loss at Utah, as Grffin had 13 points in the losing cause. Denver had its two game win streak snapped with a 112-103 setback to the Lakers on the road on Tuesday. Like Detroit, the Nuggets are fighting for a playoff spot. Wilson Chandler had 26 points and ten boards in the most recent setback to the Lakers. I’ll point out as well that Detroit has in fact bounced back well in this spot for bettors already this year, going 3-1 ATS after scoring 85 points or less in its previous contest and 4-2 ATS in its last six after a loss by ten points or more. Denver on the other hand has struggled in this position by going just 9-12 ATS in all non-conference games and just 15-18 ATS against teams with losing records. Desperation breeds motivation. I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, but everything points to this one being more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to make us think. Grab the points, play on the Pistons. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-18 | San Diego State v. Houston -4 | 65-67 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 25 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Houston (7:20 EST). It’s No. 11 San Diego State against No. 6 Houston in the first round of the NCAA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cougars. I had a play on Houston in its loss to Cincinnati in the AAC Conference Tournament final, as it would go on to easily cover the spread in the one point loss. Brian Dutcher has guided SDSU back to the NCAA Tournament for the first time in three years. SDSU enters on a nine-game win streak, including a win over New Mexico in the Conference Tournament to earn the automatic bid. Five starters average double digits for SDSU, led by Malik Pope with 12.9 per night. The Aztecs are also stout defensively in conceding just 67.9 PPG. The Cougars finished 26-7 and they’ll be looking to make some noise in the Tournament, their first time back in eight years. Rob Gray had 17 points in the 56-55 loss to the Bearcats. Gray leads the nightly charge with 18.5 points and 4.5 assists per night. Houston leads its conference in three-point shooting at 38.7 percent and it’s second in the AAC in scoring at 77.4 per night. I think it’s worthy to note as well that the Aztecs are just 1-4-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games when playing the role of underdog, while the Cougars are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs. SDSU has a tough defense, but I think it’ll struggle to keep pace with the high-flying Cougars. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-18 | Blue Jackets v. Flyers -115 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:00 EST). Columbus comes in off a 5-2 home victory over Montreal, while Philadelphia will be eager to return to form after a 3-2 loss at home to Vegas. The Blue Jackets are just 14-20 on the road this year, averaging 2.65 goals in those contests and conceding 3.12. Sergei Bobrovsky earned the win over Montreal for Columbus and he’s now 30-26 with a 2.42 GAA overall and 13-15 with a 2.69 GAA on the road. The Flyers are 17-18 at home, averaging 2.83 goals in those games and allowing 2.86. Petr Mrazek took the fall against the Golden Knights to move to 12-15 with a 2.88 GAA overall and 3-7 with a 2.98 GAA at home. I’ll point out though that Columbus is already just 7-9 (-2.8 units) this season after a win by two goals or more, while Philadelphia is still 17-15 (+3.5 units) against teams with winning records. Desperation breeds motivation (the Flyers are just 1-6 in their last seven), while winning leads to complacency (the Blue Jackets have won five straight.) I’m banking on the Flyers finding a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-18 | NC State v. Seton Hall -2 | 83-94 | Win | 100 | 79 h 15 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Seton Hall (4:30 EST). The No. 9 NC State Wolfpack get ready to battle the No. 8 Seton Hall Pirates in the opening round of the NCAA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Pirates. Coach Kevin Keatts of NC State is back in the Tournament for a third straight year, after taking North Carolina-Wilmington to the Tourney the previous two seasons. Keatts guided the Wolfpack to wins over Duke, UNC and Wake Forest in his first year at NC State. Allerik Freeman leads the nightly charge for NC State with 15.4 points, while swingman Torin Dorn averages 13.8 PPG. The Pirates are back in The Dance for a third straight year and would lose to Butler in the conference tournament quarterfinals. Seton Hall is led by Khadeen Carrington with 17.8 PPG to lead the team. It’s interesting to note that these teams both played Louisville this year and each would go on to defeat the Cardinals (NC State won 76-69 and Seton Hall held on for the 79-77 victory.) NC State has some nice wins this year, but Seton Hall’s experience and depth will prove to be too much for the contented Wolfpack to handle down the stretch in my opinion. Experience and depth. Play on Seton Hall. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-18 | Heat -6.5 v. Kings | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -103 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Miami Heat (10:05 EST). Miami is fighting for a playoff spot, while Sacramento is fighting for ping pong balls in the upcoming offseason NBA draft. The Heat had won two in a row and four of five before falling 115-99 on the road to Portland on Monday, while the Kings come in off a second straight loss, dropping a 106-101 road decision to the Thunder on Monday. Note that this is also an “in season revenge game” for the visitors after the Kings scored the 89-88 road upset back on January 25th. Miami averages 102.4 PPG and it concedes 102.3. Goran Dragic averages 17.2 points, 4.1 boards and 4.9 assists per night and he had 23 in a losing cause to the Blazers. Sacramento averages 99.3 PPG and it concedes 107.2. De’Aaron Fox has been impressive in his rookie year with 11.4 points, 2.6 boards and 4.4 assists per night, while Buddy Hield averages 12.5 points. It was Bogdan Bogdanovic who led the way in a losing cause against OKC though with 19 points. I’ll point out that Miami has done very well in this spot for bettors of late by going 4-0 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than ten points and 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. The Kings have been somewhat competitive of late and the Heat are dealing with injuries, but I still think the visitors have enough weaponry left on the bench to get the job done this evening. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-18 | BYU v. Stanford -2.5 | 83-86 | Win | 100 | 31 h 1 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Stanford (10:00 EST). BYU was 24-10 this year and 11-7 in the WCC. The Cougars beat St. Mary’s in the conference tournament before getting smoked 74-54 to Gonzaga in the championship game. Stanford got out to a slow start and finished 18-15 overall, but it was a decent 11-7 in league action, finishing in third (which wasn’t good enough for an NCAA bid in the Pac 12 this year.) In the loss to Gonzaga, BYU was led by Yoeli Childs, who had 20 points, after scoring 33 against St. Mary’s in the semis. The Cardinal fell 88-77 to UCLA in the quarterfinals of the Pac 12 Conference Tournament. As mentioned off the top though Stanford got out to the slow start to the season, but it was better than expected through conference play. I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 8-17-2 ATS in its last 27 against teams with winning straight up records, while Stanford is 8-1 ATS in its last nine in front of the home town crowd and a superb 10-2 ATS in its last 12 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. I like the Cardinal to maintain their end of season momentum and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-18 | Washington +1 v. Boise State | 77-74 | Win | 101 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington (10:00 EST). Boise State lost to Utah State 78-75 in the MWC Tourney, while Washington fell 69-66 in OT to Oregon State in its conference tournament. Boise State comes into this one averaging 78.3 PPG, while conceding 68.8. The Broncos strength all season has been their tough defensive play, but they’ve now given up 78 and 87 points in their last two games respectively. Lexus Williams had 24 points in Boise State’s latest setback. Washington averages 74.3 PPG and it concedes 72.6. The Huskies struggled in the loss to the Beavers hitting only 38.3 percent. Matisse Thybulle was a bright spot in the setback with 16 points. Boise State had a decent season, but I have a hard time seeing it hanging with battle tested Pac 12 Huskies, who were 10-8 in league play and 15-4 at home. The Broncos defense has been exposed and I like Washington to step up and take advantage. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-18 | Arizona State -1.5 v. Syracuse | 56-60 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Arizona State (9:10 EST). Arizona State was upset 97-85 by Colorado in the first round of the Pac-12 Tournament, while the Orange fell 78-59 to UNC in the second round of the ACC Tourney. The Sun Devils come into this one averaging 90.2 PPG, while conceding 83.5. The Buffs hit 13 of 21 from range in the Conference tournament to take out Arizona State, which would go on to hit 48 percent itself overall from the floor. Remy Martin was a standout in the losing cause with 20 points, while Shannon Evans II, Kodi Justice and Tra Holder each posted 14. Note that Arizona State has averaged 90.2 points and conceded 85.4 in all neutral court affairs this season. Syracuse did just enough to squeak into the First Four, but note that the Orange have averaged only 66 points, while conceding 70.2 in all neutral court games this season. Syracuse struggled offensively against the Tar Heels, shooting only 31.7 percent from the floor. Oshae Brissett had 20 points in the loss, while Tyus Battle added 15. I’ll point out as well that ASU has done extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 10-1 ATS in its last non-conference contests and 15-7-2 ATS in its last 24 following an ATS loss, while Syracuse is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight neutral site affairs. Both teams backed their way into the First Four and each has more questions than answers right now. I simply have a hard time seeing the offensively challenged Orange keeping pace with the high-flying Sun Devils down the stretch. And when taking into account the strong ATS trends listed above as well, the correct call in this matchup is indeed on ASU. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-18 | Penguins v. Rangers UNDER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Penguins/Rangers (8:00 EST). Pittsburgh comes in off a 3-1 home victory over Dallas, while New York cruised to a 6-3 home win over Carolina in its most recent action. Pittsburgh is just 13-21 on the road though, averaging 2.89 GPG in those contests, while conceding 3.29. Casey DeSmith stopped 17 of 18 shots in the win over the Stars to improve to 4-4 with a 2.44 GAA this year. New York is 19-17 at home this season, averaging 2.97 GPG in those contests, while conceding 2.92. Henrik Lundqvist is scheduled to get the start between the pipes and he’s 25-29 with a 2.92 GAA, including 16-12 with a 2.81 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven following a non-conference game, while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of ten after playing to three or more consecutive overs. I like Pittsburgh to duplicate its strong defensive performance from last time out and while the Rangers have been putting the puck in the net a prodigious rate of late, the trends above suggest a return to the norm is in the cards tonight. I think this one has “goaltenders battle” written all over it, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-14-18 | Temple +10 v. Penn State | 57-63 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Temple (8:00 EST). Temple is on the road to visit Penn State in the first round of the NIT and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I think we’re going to see a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Nittany Lions were 21-13 overall and 9-9 in league action, while the Owls were 17-15 and 8-10 in conference play. PSU fell to Purdue in the Big Ten Tournament, while Temple lost to Wichita State in its conference tournament. The Owls beat the Shockers at home on February 1st, but they’d lose to Wichita State 89-81 in the conference tournament. Quinton Rose was a strong point in that setback with 25 points, while Josh Brown added 15. Temple comes into this one averaging 70.3 PPG and conceding 70.7. Penn State averages 74.6 PPG and it concedes 66.9. The Nittany Lions got two wins in the conference tournament, but three straight loss to end the year, including a 76-64 defeat to Nebraska in their regular season finale, ultimately sunk their hopes for a NCAA bid. Shep Garner was a bright with 33 points in the loss to the Boilermakers. I think it’s interesting to note though that Temple is 13-9 ATS this year against schools with winning records, while Penn State is just 10-11 ATS in the same position. I think Fran Dunphy will have his team prepared for this one. Penn State is the better overall team, but it comes injured (Watkins) and everything points to an upset here. That said, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end. Play on the Owls. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-18 | Nuggets v. Lakers UNDER 232 | 103-112 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the under Nuggets/Lakers (10:35 EST). The 37-30 Denver Nuggets are in LA to take on the 30-36 Lakers on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. LA is 7-2 in its last nine, most recently getting the better of Cleveland in a high-scoring affair on Sunday. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Denver comes to town hot off back-to-back wins, including over these very Lakers and against the Kings last time out. The Nuggets got 20 points, 11 boards and ten assists out of big man Nikola Jokic in the victory over the Kings. The Lakers will be out to atone for their 125-116 setback at Denver last Friday. Note that Julius Randle exploded for 36 points in the victory over the Cavaliers. I’ll point out though that Denver has seen the total go under the number in six of ten this year after playing three consecutive home games, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in 30 of its last 53 off an upset win as an underdog. Let’s face it, these two teams clearly don’t put a lot of stock on the defensive side of things, but I think each comes out with a more determined effort on that side of the floor after their high-scoring game together just last week. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-18 | Pistons +7.5 v. Jazz | Top | 79-110 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (9:05 EST). Detroit got off the schneid, breaking a four-game losing streak with a 99-83 win over the Bulls on Friday, led by 25 points from Blake Griffin and 21 from Reggie Bullock. The Pistons are still trying to adjust since making the Griffin trade, but the power forward comes in on fire this year, especially from range where he’s connecting on 33.5 percent of his shots. Also note that big man Andre Drummond is shooting a career-high 61.6 percent from the free throw line this season and he contributes 14.9 points and 15.8 boards per game. Detroit won’t be taking anything for granted here though after losing 13 of its last 20 and at the start of this tough Western swing. The Jazz have won eight of ten, including six straight, which leads me to believe they’re going to have a letdown here facing this non-conference opponent. And with upcoming games against lightweights Phoenix, Sacramento and Atlanta at home up next, Utah could easily be caught looking ahead here as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Detroit has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going 12-8 ATS in all non-conference contests, while Utah is a poor 5-6 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games. Both teams are hungry for wins, but the conditions point to a much tighter affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Pistons. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-18 | Stars -151 v. Canadiens | 2-4 | Loss | -151 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Dallas Stars (7:30 EST). Dallas will be eager to return to the winners circle after a 3-1 loss to the Pens on the road in it last game. And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as the Habs return home off a 5-2 loss in Columbus just last night. Dallas is 14-18 on the road, averaging 2.47 GPG in those contests, while conceding 2.78. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen though is 12-10 with a 2.23 GAA this season, including going 8-7 with a 1.83 GAA on the road. Montreal is 16-18 at home, averaging 2.79 goals and conceding 2.69 in those contests. Netminder Antti Niemi is 4-8 with a 2.78 GAA on the year, including 2-5 with a 2.46 GAA at home. I’ll point that Dallas has rebounded well in this spot all year by going 14-7 (+5.8 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest, while Montreal has struggled in this position by going a horrible 12-30 (-19.4 units) in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I’m giving Dallas the big nod in net in this particular goalie matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors in my opinion. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Stars. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-18 | Northern Kentucky +7 v. Louisville | 58-66 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Northern Kentucky (7:00 EST). Northern Kentucky finished the year at 22-9, while Louisville was 20-13. The Cardinals failed to make The Big Dance and I think they have a bit of a mental letdown here because of it. Northern Kentucky also aspired to be included in the NCAA Tournament, but its hopes were dashed in the Horizon League Tournament. The Norse won the regular season title and were upset in the first round by Cleveland State. With some extra time off to recover from that disappointment, I think Northern Kentucky comes in focused and hungry here. One player to keep your eyes on today for the visitors is forward Drew McDonald, who had 15 double-doubles over his last 21 games. Reports have it that many of the Cardinals players voiced objections over even playing in the NIT this season. Louisville comes in completely dejected here after losing to Virginia in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals. The Rick Pitino scandal still weighs heavily upon the program and the fans and I think the Norse are going to be able to take advantage. Note the Northern Kentucky is 4-1 ATS this year following an ATS loss, while the Cardinals are just 5-13 ATS in their last 18 following a SU setback. I’m not going to call for the outright upset, but everything points to a “nail-biter.” Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-13-18 | Long Island v. Radford OVER 136.5 | Top | 61-71 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL BLOWOUT is the over Long Island/Radford (6:40 EST). The LIU Brooklyn Blackbirds get ready to battle the Radford Highlanders on Tuesday in the “First Four” and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Radford was 12-6 in Big South play and would go on to win the Conference Tournament, while Brooklyn amassed a 10-8 record in conference play and managed to come out as the victor in the Northeast Conference Tournament. The winner of this one will go on to play Villanova on Thursday. Radford averages 67.4 PPG and it concedes 64.4. The Highlanders have won seven straight, but they had to hold on for dear life to beat Liberty 55-52 in a lower-scoring Conference Tournament finale. Carlik Jones was a standout in the victory with 13 points and six assists. LIU Brooklyn shocked No. 1 seed Wagner 71-61 in the Northeast Tournament final and I believe the team will carry that momentum over here. The Blackbirds average 77.5 PPG and they concede 76.6. Joel Hernandez had 32 points in the title victory. Neither team has been playing to many higher-scoring affairs of late, but I think the circumstances of the situation will see these two combine for just enough points to push this one over what I feel to be a fairly low number. This total is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-12-18 | Heat +6 v. Blazers | Top | 99-115 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Miami Heat (10:35 EST). Miami comes in with momentum after smashing the Wizards 129-102 at home on Saturday. Portland has bee playing unbelievably of late, but I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot after nine straight victories, most recently getting the better of Golden State 125-108 on Friday night. To say this is a “revenge” game would be an understatement as well, as Portland has won four straight in the series, including a 102-95 road victory in the first meeting between the clubs this year in Miami back on December 13th. Miami averages 102.4 PPG and it concedes 102.1. James Johnson had 20 points and five assists to lead eight players in double figures in his team’s most recent victory. Portland averages 105.6 PPG and it concedes 103.2. CJ McCollum was a standout with 30 points in the victory over the defending champs. However, not only do I think this sets up as a “trap/letdown” spot for the Blazers, but I also think it’s a classic “look ahead” spot as well, with two nights off before facing the Cavaliers at home on Thursday. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, all signs point to a “nail-biter.” Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-12-18 | Hurricanes -140 v. Rangers | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Carolina Hurricanes (7:05 EST). Carolina comes to town off a momentum building 3-2 road win in Chicago, while the Rangers enter off another deflating 4-3 shootout loss in Florida. Carolina averages 2.62 GPG and it concedes 2.99. Goaltender Cam Ward is 19-15 with a 2.70 GAA and while he’s just 13-20 against the Rangers lifetime, he does own a solid 2.59 GAA in those contests. The Rangers average 2.78 GPG and they concede 3.13. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is only 25-28 with a 2.92 GAA this year. I’ll point out though that Carolina has done well in this spot for bettors all year by going 14-9 (+1.7 units) against clubs with losing records, while New York is a poor 5-7 (-1.9 units) this season after three or more consecutive losses. I’m calling the goaltenders a wash, but Carolina’s momentum from its latest victory propels it to another solid victory in my opinion. New York’s spiral down the proverbial crapper continues and all things considered, this is indeed a very fair price. Play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-18 | Cavs v. Lakers UNDER 230 | Top | 113-127 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL Oddsmakers Error is on the under Cavs/Lakers (8:00 EST). The 38-27 Cavaliers are in LA to play the 29-36 Lakers on Sunday night and everything points to a defensive battle in my opinion. Maybe it won’t be the best overall defensive game we’ve ever seen, but I still think this number is much too high. Cleveland comes in off a 116-112 loss to the Clippers on Friday and it would also lose the services of Rodney Hood and Cedi Osman to injury in the setback. LA is 6-2 in its last eight, but its win streak was de-railed last time out in Denver, falling 125-116. The Lakers have a rematch with the Nuggets on Tuesday, so there’s no question in my mind that this young team could be caught looking ahead to that more important contest. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has in fact seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine against good offensive clubs which average 106 plus points per contest and 16 of 22 this season following a non-conference game, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly five of its last seven against poor defensive clubs which concede 106-plus points per night. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-18 | Stars v. Penguins -148 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (6:30 EST). Dallas held on for a 2-1 home win over the Ducks in its most recent action, while Pittsburgh enters off a 5-2 road loss in Toronto just last night. Dallas has gone 14-17 on the road this year and it’s averaged 2.52 goals in those contests, while conceding 2.77. Goaltender Kari Lehtnonen stopped 26 of 27 in the Stars’ most recent victory. Note that he’s 8-6 with a 1.81 GAA on the road thus far. Pittsburgh is 25-9 at home, averaging 3.63 goals in those contests, while conceding 2.74. Casey DeSmith will get the call in net tonight and he’s 3-4 with a 2.73 GAA in his rookie year, including going 2-2 with a solid 2.22 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that Dallas is a sub-par 6-7 (-3.9 units) in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Pittsburgh is 11-2 (+9 units) already this season after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. Yes the Penguins are playing on no rest, but I think they’re going to bounce back on home ice. Pittsburgh went down early last night and it seemed to “check out” early in anticipation of tonight’s game. I think it’ll bounce back here though and and come in focused on the task at hand. When you add it all up, it makes Pittsburgh well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-18 | Houston +4.5 v. Cincinnati | 55-56 | Win | 100 | 6 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on Houston (4:30 EST). Note that these teams split a pair of games this year, with each winning on its own floor. Houston advanced with a 77-74 win over Wichita State as a five-point underdog. I had the Shockers in that one. I don’t normally ever “flip flop” on a team from one game to the next, but this is a completely different situation in that each contest at this point of the tournament needs to be looked at separately in my opinion. I was wrong about the Cougars yesterday, but I think they’re going to carry their momentum over here against this shaky Cincinnati Bearcats team, which comes in off a 70-60 win over Memphis to advance. Houston averages 78.1 PPG and it concedes 65.2. The Cougars are playing with added incentive today as well, as a win today will guarantee them a spot in The Big Dance. Rob Gray was unstoppable against the Shockers with 33 points (26.7 tournament average.) This is a great “situational” play in my opinion, as I believe the Bearcats will come in “gassed” here. Cincinnati was down 42-29 at halftime against the Tigers, but they then rallied for a big second half come from behind victory. The defense shone in the end by allowing Memphis to hit just 35.2 percent from the floor, but all of that energy expended to claw back is going to come back to bite the Bearcats in the end in my opinion. Jarron Cumberland was a standout with 18 points in victory. As I mentioned off the top, I am very aware of being careful not to ever “flip flop” on a team from one game to the next. As I’ve demonstrated above though, in a tournament scenario like this, being “flexible” with my approach over the years has led to greater and long-term success and that’s my approach with this one. The Bearcats are the second best defensive team in the nation, but the Cougars are no slouch on that end of the court either. Houston has the clear advantage offensively as well. Houston’s already beaten Cincinnati this year, so it obviously won’t be intimidated. With nothing to lose, I like the Cougars to at the very least take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points, play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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03-11-18 | Kentucky v. Tennessee +1 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tennessee (2:00 EST). The 23-10 Kentucky Wildcats get ready to battle the 25-7 Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC Tournament Championship and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Vols. Kentucky has beaten Georgia and Alabama to advance, while Tennessee has gotten the better of Mississippi State and Arkansas to reach this point. PJ Washington had 18 points for the Wildcats in their 62-49 victory over Georgia, while Shai Gilgeous-Alexander added 15 points and nine boards. Gilegeous-Alexander had double figures again in the 86-63 win over Alabama. The Vols barely got by Mississippi State 61-58 on Friday, before five players scored in double figures for the convincing 84-66 win over Arkansas on Saturday. Lamonte Turner was a standout with nine points, four assists and two steals off the bench. I’ll point out that Kentucky has struggled in this spot of late for bettors by going just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a win by more than 20 points, while Tennessee has excelled in this position by going 9-4 ATS in its last 13 neutral site games and 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with a winning percentage of .600 or greater. Ultimately I think Tennessee’s depth will prove to be too much for Kentucky to keep up to down the stretch. Play on the Volunteers. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | USC v. Arizona OVER 146 | 61-75 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the over USC/Arizona (10:00 EST). The 23-10 USC Trojans are battling the 26-7 Arizona Wildcats in the Pac-12 Men’s Tournament Final this evening and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has shootout written all over it. USC comes in off a 74-54 win over Oregon last night, looking great on both ends of the floor, finishing by hitting 50 percent from the field. Jonah Mathews was a standout with 27 points, three boards, three assists and three steals. The Trojans average 77.7 PPG. Arizona averages 81.2 PPG. Arizona advanced to the Final by defeating UCLA 78-67 last night, led by Deandre Ayton, who finished with 32 points, 14 boards, three assists, two blocks and two steals. I’ll point out that USC has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 when playing with one or less days rest, while Arizona has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last seven conference tournament contests. These teams played in mid February and Arizona got the better of USC 81-67. I expect these hungry teams to combine for at least this amount again on the national stage. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | Spurs v. Thunder OVER 212 | Top | 94-104 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is the over Spurs/Thunder (8:35 EST). These were two teams with big expectations entering the season, but each finds itself needing to string together some victories just to ensure that it’ll have a playoff spot. Each is dealing with injuries and other issues, but I believe the conditions lend themselves to a higher-scoring affair between these extremely hungry opponents. The Spurs enter off a 110-107 road loss to Golden State in their most recent action, while OKC smashed Phoenix 115-87 at home on Thursday to break a two-game slide. San Antonio has lost seven of its last nine and it averages just 102.2 PPG, while conceding 99.6. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge averages 22.4 points and 8.4 boards per night (note that he had 30 points and 17 boards in the loss to the Warriors.) OKC averages 106.8 PPG and it concedes 103.8. Russell Westbrook averages 25.4 points, 9.6 boards, 10.1 assists and 1.86 steals per game and he had 25 points, eight boards and nine assists in his team’s most recent victory. The Spurs may be the stingiest team in the NBA overall this season, but head coach Greg Popovich has been changing up the pace of late, as note that San Antonio has seen the total go over the number in eight of 12 so far in the second half of the season. OKC is another top defensive club, which makes it important to note that it’s seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of its last five against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the OVER. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | Blues v. Kings -150 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -150 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Kings (4:00 EST). The 35-37-5 St. Louis Blues are in LA to take on the 37-25-5 Kings on Saturday and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. St. Louis enters off a 2-0 loss in San Jose on Thursday night, while LA posted a 3-1 victory over the Capitals in its latest action. So far these teams have split a pair of meetings this year. The Blues average only 2.6 GPG, while conceding 2.7. Jake Allen has a 19-20-2, 2.79 GAA, while Carter Hutton owns a 2.02 GAA. The Kings average 2.9 GPG and they concede just 2.5. Goaltender Jon Quick is 26-24-2 with a 2.44 GAA. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 0-9 in its last nine against clubs with winning records, while LA is 4-0 in its last four against teams with losing records. The Blues have in fact lost nine of their last ten, averaging only 1.4 goals in that span. And that spells doom facing the defensive minded Kings in my opinion, as they’ve been particularly stingy of late by conceding two goals or fewer in four of their last five games. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Great value, play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | Arkansas v. Tennessee -2.5 | Top | 66-84 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tennessee (3:30 EST). The 23-10 Arkansas Razorbacks get ready to battle the 24-7 Tennessee Volunteers in the SEC semi-final on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Vols. Tennessee received a double-bye to open the tournament and then came out and survived a scare in a 61-58 win over Mississippi State on Friday. Clearly the Vols won’t be taking anything for granted this evening after that closer than expected victory: “We were fortunate,” Tennessee head coach Rick Barnes admitted afterwards. “This time of year, you just advance. Not a lot of good things, other than the fact that we won the game when you look at it from our perspective.” The Razorbacks come in off back-to-back Conference Tournament victories, but I think they have a letdown here after their upset win over Florida yesterday. Note that the Volunteers also play with the added motivation of “revenge” this afternoon after Arkansas upset Tennessee earlier in the season. I look for the Vols to shake off the rust and to avenge the earlier setback to the now weary Razorbacks. Play on Tennessee. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | Houston v. Wichita State -4 | 77-74 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wichita State (3:30 EST). Houston comes in off an 84-56 win over UCF, while Wichita State enters off an 89-81 win over Temple to advance. Note that these teams split a pair of games in the regular season. The Cougars average 78 PPG and they concede 65.2. The Cougars have won nine of their last ten. Devin Davis was a standout in the win over the Golden Knights with 16 points, while Rob Gray added 15. The Shockers average 83.3 PPG and they concede 71.2. Landry Shamet had 24 points in the win over the Owls. Previous to only scoring 61 points in its regular season finale setback to Cincinnati, note that Wichita State had averaged 85.9 PPG over its previous seven outings. Houston got the better of the Shockers the last time the teams played, but I think the Cougars come out flat here against this battle tested Wichita State team. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Shockers. Good luck…Larry |
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03-10-18 | St. Joe's v. Rhode Island OVER 144 | 87-90 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is on the over St Joe’s/Rhode Island (1:00 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak above the posted number once it’s all said and done. St. Joe’s comes into this one on top form with four straight wins, which includes a 30-point blowout victory over these very Rams just two weeks ago. I had a play on the Hawks yesterday and they’d go on to crush George Mason 68-49, led by 14 points and nine boards from Nick Robinson. Rhode Island cruised to a 76-67 win over VCU in its latest action, hitting 50 percent from range in the victory (11 of 22.) Jeff Dowtin was a standout with 18 points, while Jared Terrell finished 16. I’l point out that St. Joe’s has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 already this year when the total in the contest is set between 140 and 149.5, while Rhode Island has seen the total sail above the posted number in both games that it’s played in already this year when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. This one has the feel of a “run and gun shootout.” Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-18 | Knicks v. Bucks OVER 212 | 112-120 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the over Knicks/Bucks (8:05 EST). New York is struggling down the stretch, but I think it’ll put up enough of a fight against the Bucks to make the home side sweat a little. The Knicks most recently dropped their fifth straight, a poor 111-87 setback on the road in Portland on Tuesday. The Bucks won’t be taking anything for granted here though, as they come in having lost two straight, most recently a 110-99 setback at home to Houston on Wednesday. Note that so far the Bucks have taken both meetings against New York this year. New York averages 103.8 PPG and it concedes 107.1. Enes Kanter averages 14.3 points and 10.8 boards per game, while Tim Hardaway Jr. adds 17 points a night. Hardaway had 19 points in a losing cause to the Blazers last time out. Milwaukee averages 104.6 PPG and it concedes 105.2. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 27.2 points, 10.2 boards, 4.8 assists, 1.46 blocks and 1.46 steals per game, while Khris Middleton adds 19.7 points and 5.2 boards per night. I’ll point out that New York has in fact seen the total go over the number in five of eight already this year after playing three consecutive road games, while Milwaukee has seen the total eclipse the posted number in not surprisingly five of its last seven against poor defensive clubs which concede 106-plus points per night. Milwaukee is desperate for a victory and I look for it to get out and run tonight. Everything points to a faster-paced, higher-scoring over in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-18 | Flames -150 v. Senators | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Calgary Flames (7:35 EST). Calgary comes in off a 5-1 road win over the Sabres, while Ottawa comes in off a 4-3 shootout loss to the Bufflao just last night. The Flames’ most recent victory snapped a three-game slide and it has the team trending in the correct direction again. Calgary has in fact been better on the road than at home this year, going 19-16 and averaging 2.91 goals, while conceding 2.69 in those contests. The Flames are splitting time in goal right now between David Rittich and Jon Gillies. The Sens average 3.16 GPG at home, but unfortunately they concede 3.50 in those contests. Mike Condon gets the call in net for the home side tonight. I’ll point out that Calgary has performed very well in this spot for bettors for quite some time by going 11-3 in its last 14 road games against a team with a losing home record, while Ottawa is just 5-13 in its last 18 against the Western Conference. I like a rested and focused Calgary team to take advantage of this tired and downtrodden Ottawa side. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-18 | Bulls v. Pistons -8.5 | Top | 83-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Pistons (7:05 EST). Chicago looks poised for a predictable letdown here in my opinion after winning its second straight, most recently a 119-110 win over Memphis on Friday. It’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Pistons though, who have lost four straight, most recently a tight 121-119 OT setback at home to the Raptors on Wednesday. Note that this also sets up as an “in season revenge game” for the home side after the Bulls took the first meeting 107-105 in Chicago back on January 13th. The Bulls enter averaging 103.4 PPG and conceding 109.4. Zach LaVine averages 17.1 points, while rookie Lauri Markkanen adds 14.9 points and 7.6 boards per night and he had 22 in his team’s most recent victory. Detroit needs to stop the bleeding now, as it sits five games back of the Bucks for the final playoff spot with 17 games remaining. The Pistons had a 14 point half time lead against Toronto, but couldn’t hold it together against the East leading Raptors down the stretch. The Pistons average 103.1 PPG and they concede 104.4. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 21.7 points, 7.5 boards and 5.5 assists per night and he had 31 in a losing cause against Toronto. I’ll point out though that Chicago is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS victory, while Detroit is still a competitive 7-5 ATS against the division this season. The Bulls two recent victories came over Dallas and Memphis, but they now face a desperate and hungry team that’s going to be risking life and limb today in trying to secure a victory. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Lay the points, play on the Pistons. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-18 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion | 57-49 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 12 m | Show | |
This is an 8* LATE BREAKING PERFECT STORM is on Old Dominion (4:00 EST). No. 3 seed WKU gets ready to take on No. 2 seed ODU on Friday afternoon in the semi-final of the Conference USA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Monarchs. WKU smashed UAB 98-70 on Thursday, putting up 52 points in the second half to advance to this point. Justin Johnson led the way in the victory with 19 points and ten boards. ODU had a more difficult time in its 62-58 win over Louisiana Tech and it won’t be taking anything for granted today because of the closer than expected call. The Monarchs hit 40.8 percent from the floor and went 16 of 19 from the charity stripe. BJ Stith was a bright spot in the victory with 22 points and 12 boards. I’ll point out though that Western Kentucky is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 98 points or more in its previous contest, while ODU is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 neutral site affairs. I think the Hilltoppers have a predictable letdown here after their big win last night and I expect the Monarchs to step up and take full advantage. Play on Old Dominion. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-18 | Georgia v. Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 49-62 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Kentucky (3:30 EST). Kentucky was 10-8 in conference play and earned a bye to make it to this point of the SEC Tournament. While the Wildcats missed out on a fourth straight SEC regular season title, the team still has a legitimate shot at taking the conference tournament. Note that Kentucky owns a 43-11 mark in quarterfinal action in the SEC tournament. UK won’t be taking anything for granted here either as it narrowly defeated the Bulldogs at home back in December, a game in which Kevin Knox was held to an uncharacteristically poor 2-of-10 shooting. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander was a bright spot in the near loss with 21 points. Georgia is a good team, but it comes in “gassed” here, beating Vanderbilt 78-62 on Wednesday, before an exhausting 62-60 win over Missouri yesterday. Additionally I’ll point out that Georgia is just 2-4 ATS this year in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent, while Kentucky is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 neutral court affairs. Kentucky is the deeper and much “fresher” team and everything points to a lop-sided blowout once the final horn sounds. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-09-18 | George Mason v. St. Joe's -5.5 | 49-68 | Win | 100 | 7 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on St. Joseph’s (2:30 EST). This is the second quarter final of the A-10 Tournament. George Mason held on for an 80-75 win over UMass yesterday, while St. Joseph’s earned a bye to make it to this point. The Patriots were only 1.5 point favorites yesterday and while the team did manage both the SU and ATS victory, it was anything but easy. Tied 39-39 at the half, it was a nail-biter until the final moments. Suffice it to say, I expect the Patriots to come in here a little flat footed after their big win just last night. George Mason only shot 35.9 percent from the floor and got 21 points from Otis Livingston II in the satisfying victory. St. Joe’s has only lost once in its last seven games and it just happens to be to these very Patriots. Suffice it to say, I think its payback time! George Mason rallied for the 79-76 road win over the Hawks, who have since recovered their form. In their most recent 78-70 win over La Salle, the Hawks hit 48.1 percent from the floor and also held a 39-31 advantage on the glass. James Demery was a standout with 18 points off the bench (note that Demery has posted 39 points and 13 boards over his last two games.) I’ll point out that George Mason is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as the underdog, while St. Joe’s is 5-2 ATS this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent (it’s also 3-0 ATS the last two years when playing with five or six days rest.) Revenge is a dish best served cold. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Hawks. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-18 | Baylor v. West Virginia -4.5 | 65-78 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on West Virginia (9:30 EST). The 18-13 Baylor Bears get ready to battle the 22-9 WVU Mountaineers in the quarterfinals of the Big 12 Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. If recent history is any precedence, then WVU certainly has to be feeling confident here as it posted the 57-54 victory in the first meeting between the schools and then a more convincing 71-60 win in the second this year. Baylor averages 75.8 PPG and it concedes 69.5. Jo Lual-Acull Jr. was a standout in both losses to the Mountaineers for the Bears, posting double-doubles in each setback, including 16 points and ten boards in the second. Baylor comes in with zero momentum though after losing three of its last four. WVU averages 80.4 PPG and it concedes 68.9. The Mountaineers will be eager to return to form here after an 87-79 OT road loss to a determined Longhorns team in their regular season finale. Keep your eyes on Daxter Miles Jr, who averaged 13.5 points over his final six games of the season. I’ll point out as well that Baylor is already just 1-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while WVU is 4-2 ATS this season off a loss against a conference rival. The Mountaineers have been particularly efficient against the Bears defensively this year, limiting them to 35.8 percent and 32.8 percent shooting over the first two meetings. Five players average double digits for West Virginia and it’s that depth which I believe will once again prove to be too much for the Baylor to overcome. Lay the points, play on West Virginia. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-18 | North Carolina -5.5 v. Miami-FL | 82-65 | Win | 100 | 10 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is in North Carolina (9:30 EST). UNC enters off a 78-59 destruction of Syracuse in the opener of the tournament and it’ll be out for some revenge here after losing at home to the Hurricanes just over a week ago on a 30-foot 3-point shot from Ja’Quan Newton. The Tar Heels looked sharp in the win over the Orange, limiting Syracuse to just 33.3 percent shooting and suffice it to say, I believe the team carries that momentum over here. Kenny Williams was a standout in the victory with 17 points, while Theo Pinson would add 16 points, 11 boards and five assists. UNC comes into this one averaging 83 points and conceding 74. Miami averages 74.5 points and it concedes 67.6. The Hurricanes had to hold on for dear life in their 69-68 home victory over Virginia Tech on March 3rd and the extra time off here won’t help in my opinion. Ultimately I feel that UNC’s depth and superior offense will prove to be too much for the Hurricanes to handle down the stretch. Play on the Tar Heels. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-18 | Islanders v. Oilers -141 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Edmonton Oilers (9:05 EST). The 29-29-9 New York Islanders are in Edmonton to take on the 28-34-4 Oilers on Thursday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. The Isles come in completely discombobulated after losing seven straight, most recently falling in Vancouver. The Oilers could care less about New York’s issues though, as they have plenty of their own. They won’t be taking anything for granted here either after breaking a three-game skid with an OT win over Arizona on Monday. The Islanders have to be feeling extra dejected after letting a two-goal lead evaporate in the 4-3 OT loss at Vancouver on Monday. Let’s face it, neither team has lived up to expectations whatsoever this year though. Each has more questions than answers right now as well. But from a scheduling stand point, this one highly favors Edmonton. The Oilers have a tough one against the Wild up next on Saturday night, while this is the third game of a four-game road trip for the Isles, who have two nights off before their finale in Calgary on Sunday. In my opinion, all of the situational factors listed above make the Oilers well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-18 | Celtics v. Wolves +2 | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Boston lost to Houston, but then bounced back with a 105-89 win in Chicago on Monday. This is the final game of the C’s road trip and I think they suffer a letdown here against the hungry Wolves, who enter off two straight losses, most recently a 116-108 setback at Utah on Friday. This is a revenge game for Minnesota as well, which has dropped three straight in the series, including a 91-84 setback at Boston on January 5th. Boston comes into this one averaging 104.4 PPG and it concedes 100.1. Kyrie Irving leads the nightly charge with 24.8 points and 5.1 assists per game, while Al Horford adds 12.8 points, 7.5 boards and 4.9 assists per night. Jaylen Brown led all scorers though with 21 in Boston’s win over the Bulls. Minnesota averages 109.7 PPG and it concedes 107. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.4 points and 12.2 boards per game, while Anthony Wiggins adds 17.9 and 4.1 a night. Wiggins was a bright spot with 27 points in the losing cause to the Jazz. With two nights off before a game at home against Indiana, I think Boston gets caught looking ahead here. The Wolves are injured, but they’re rested and determined. I’m banking on the home side taking advantage and rallying, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-18 | Long Beach State v. CS-Fullerton OVER 152.5 | 74-76 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 40 m | Show | |
My 9* BIG WEST TOURNAMENT TOP TOTAL is on the OVER between LBSU and Cal State Fullerton (5:30 EST). LBSU comes in having won two straight, finishing league play with a 9-7 record and entering the tournament as the No. 5 seed. The 49ers have a good shot at winning this tournament if they can continue that momentum. LBSU got 17 points from Gabe Levin in the 49ers’ 77-59 win over Riverside last time out, while Deishaun Booker added 16 points and ten boards. Cal State Fullerton is 10-6 and comes in as the No. 4 seed. Cal State will be eager to return to form though after an unimpressive 68-60 home loss to Hawaii in its regular season finale. These teams played twice in the regular season and each was a rather higher-scoring affair, with the 49ers beating the Titans 81-73 in the first one and then CS Fullerton returning the favor in an 81-71 victory at home in the second. The Titans would post 54 points in the second half of the final matchup against LBSU, getting 25 points from Kyle Allman. I’ll point out as well that LBSU has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 against teams with winning records this year and in nine of its last 13 tournaments games overall, while CS Fullerton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four after scoring 60 points or less its previous outing. Both teams are hungry and I expect the overall determination exhibited by each to translate into offensive production on the court. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-08-18 | Louisville v. Virginia -7.5 | Top | 58-75 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* ACC TOURNAMENT GAME OF THE YEAR is on Virginia (12:00 EST). Louisville pulled off the slight upset in yesterday’s 82-74 victory over FSU and it’s reward is a date against the No. 1 team in the Tournament and also the nation. And Virginia will hardly be taking anything for granted here, as it would need a last second three-point shot from De’Andre Hunter to secure the 67-66 road win in January, after also taking the matchup at home earlier in the season. I think the Cardinals come in “gassed” here after their big win over the Seminoles, in which they roared out to a 41-22 halftime lead and then never looked back. Louisville averages 76.6 PPG and it concedes 79.3. Deng Adel leads the nightly charge with 15.4 PPG. The Cavaliers have offensive talent, they simply choose to play at an extremely slow pace. In fact they’re ranked dead last the country in possessions per game at only 62.1. Virginia gets the job done though with its smothering defensive play, also leading the NCAA by conceding only 52.8 PPG. I think the Cavaliers come in focused and I believe the Cardinals will come in flat. Ultimately I feel that the quick turnaround will be just too much for Louisville to handle. This line could easily be a lot larger, play on Virginia. Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-18 | Oregon State v. Washington +2 | 69-66 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington (9:00 EST). Oregon State is 15-15 overall, but won two of its final three regular season games, including a 92-67 victory over Washington State in its finale. Tres Tinkle, Ethan Thompson and Stephen Thompson Jr. lead a Beavers team which has shot 54.5 percent from the floor over its last three games. First year Huskies’ coach Mike Hopkins was named the Pac 12 Coach of the Year, while Matisse Thybulle earned 2018 Pac 12 Defensive Player of the Year honors. From a trend based stand point, this one favors the Huskies for sure though, as note that Oregon State is a poor 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning straight up record and only 2-7 ATS in its last nine following a SU victory, while Washington is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven following a straight up/against the spread setback. These teams have split a pair of games this year, with each contest being decided by a single bucket (OSU won 97-94 in double OT in Corvallis, while WU won 79-77 on March 1st.) Everything once again points to a “nail-biter,” so I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-18 | Raptors v. Pistons +5 | Top | 121-119 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Pistons (8:05 EST). The Raptors are an awesome team, but I think they come in “gassed” here in the second game of the back to back. Toronto was in action just last night, pulling away for a relatively simple 106-90 win over Atlanta. Detroit plays with in-season double revenge, most recently falling to the Raptors 123-94 in late February. The Pistons also play with desperation after three straight losses, most recently a humbling 112-90 setback on the road in Cleveland on Monday. Toronto averages 111.9 PPG and it concedes 103.3. DeMar DeRozan averages 23.7 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.5 points, 5.8 boards and 6.5 assists per game. At this point clinching a playoff spot is not a a matter of if, but when for Toronto, as the Raptors sit 17 games ahead of the Pistons, who are hungry to snap their slide and get out of the ninth place spot in the East. Detroit averages 102.9 PPG and it concedes 104.1. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 21.5 points, 7.6 boards and 5.5 assists per night. Griffin had 25 points, eight boards and five assists in his team’s most recent setback to Cleveland. With a night off before welcoming the league-leading Rockets to town on Friday night, I also think this sets up as a potential “look ahead” spot for the visitors. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-18 | Penguins v. Flyers +101 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Flyers (8:00 EST). The 38-25-2-2 Pittsburgh Penguins are in Philadelphia to take on the desperate 34-21-5-6 Flyers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Pittsburgh comes in content and tired after back-to-back OT victories, most recently scoring the 4-3 win over Calgary on Monday. The Penguins average 3.24 GPG and they concede 3.00. Goaltender Tristan Jarry is 12-5-2 with a 2.69 GAA. Philadelphia sits just one game behind the Penguins after three straight losses. Goaltender Petr Mrazek is 11-9-4 with a 2.90 GAA. The Flyers come into this one averaging 2.95 GPG and conceding 2.83. Pittsburgh has two nights off before a prime time matchup on Saturday night in Toronto and I think it not only gets caught a little “flat footed” here after the back to back OT wins, but that it also gets caught looking ahead. I’m banking on the home side risking life and limb today getting into shooting and passing lanes as it finally gets back into the winners circle. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-18 | California +8.5 v. Stanford | 58-76 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on California (5:30 EST). Cal is a horrible team, it finished 2-16 in conference play. Most recently the Golden Bears fell 66-54 to Arizona on Saturday. Justice Sueing was a bright spot in that one with 14 points. The Golden Bears average 90.8 points per 100 possessions and they allow 110.7 points per 100 possessions. One thing Cal has done well though is forcing turnovers, ranked third in the conference by forcing 20.3 percent on defensive possessions. Stanford comes in a tad complacent here after winning four of its final five regular season games, including a thrilling 84-83 road effort at Arizona State in its finale. Stanford ranks in the top five in the conference on both ends of the floor per 100 possessions. I’ll point out though that Cal is 6-2 ATS in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Stanford is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten tournament games and a horrible 2-10 ATS in its last 12 against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest. Cal got the better of Stanford already this season and it’s not going to simply roll over here either. I expect a competitive battle, so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-07-18 | Arizona State v. Colorado +7 | 85-97 | Win | 100 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on Colorado (3:00 EST). This one is being played from the T-Mobile Arena on Wednesday afternoon. ASU opened up its season by going 12-0, but once conference action hit it would “tank,” going 8-10. The Sun Devils are now squarely on the bubble as the Pac 12 Conference Tournament gets underway. The Sun Devils come in off a crushing 84-83 defeat at home to Stanford in their regular season finale as well. Tra Holder was a stand out with 19 points, while Shannon Evans added 17. ASU averages 107.5 points per 100 possessions, while allowing 105.6 points per 100 possessions. Colorado comes in under the radar here in my opinion as it also struggled down the stretch by losing four of its last five games, including a 64-54 setback at Utah in its regular season finale. McKinley Wright had 16 points in the losing cause, while Lucas Siewert added 11. Colorado averages 99.1 points per 100 possessions, but it is able to stay competitive with its No. 1 effective field goal percentage defense in the conference. I’ll point out as well that Arizona State is just 2-10-2 ATS in its last 14 against teams with a winning straight up record, while Colorado is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. The pressure is on the Sun Devils and I think the Buffs relish the role of spoiler here. I believe this one is decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Pelicans v. Clippers UNDER 237.5 | 121-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Pelicans/Clippers (10:35 EST). LA sits just a game back of Denver for the final playoff spot in the West, while New Orleans will be looking to improve its playoff positioning. Then Pelicans enter off a 126-109 win over Dallas on Sunday, getting 30 points from Jrue Holiday. Big man Anthony Davis had 23 points, 13 boards, three steals and three blocks. LA is 9-3 in its last 12 after holding on for a 123-120 win over Brooklyn, overcoming a 15-point third quarter deficit. Austin Rivers had a team-high 27 points, while Lou Williams added 21. The first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two teams is high-scoring offense and very little defense. And that’s why it’s important to note that the Pelicans have in fact seen the total go under the number in three of their last four following a win by ten points or more, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven home games when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220. This can still be a high-scoring affair and stay below this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I expect to happen. This number is indeed just a tad high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Nuggets v. Mavs +4.5 | Top | 107-118 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). The 35-28 Denver Nuggets are in Dallas to take on the 19-45 Mavericks and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Denver looks poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after beating the Cavs 126-117 in Cleveland on Saturday night. In fact, it’s impossible not to think that the Nuggets won’t also be caught “looking ahead” here to their game at home against Cleveland in the re-match tomorrow night. Dallas on the other hand is looking to atone for a 126-109 setback to New Orleans on Sunday. Denver averages 108.7 PPG and it concedes 107.5. Dallas averages 102.2 PPG and it concedes 105.1. Note though that the Nuggets have had a hell of a time whenever they’ve played in Dallas of late, as evidenced by their 1-5-1 ATS record in their last seven played there. Dallas is a prime candidate for a top pick in the NBA draft in the offseason, but I think it puts up a fight tonight. I’ll also point out that the Mavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four following a double-digit home loss. The Nuggets are quite possibly the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” team in the league with a poor 11-19 road record and I expect the Mavericks to take advantage of that. Grab the points, play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Heat v. Wizards -4.5 | 113-117 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (7:05 EST). Miami comes in off a very satisfying 125-103 win over the Suns just last night and suffice it to say, I think the team will be “gassed” here in the second game of the back to back. Washington on the other hand won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening as it’s lost three straight, most recently a 98-95 setback to Indiana on Sunday. Miami comes into this one averaging just 101.4 PPG, while conceding 102. Hassan Whiteside averages 13.9 points and 12 boards per game, while Goran Dragic contributes 17.4 points, 4.1 boards and 4.9 assists per night. Washington averages 107 PPG and it concedes 105.4. Bradley Beal is the main man right now and he averages 23.4 PPG, while big man Marcin Gortat adds 8.6 points and 7.8 boards per night. I’ll point out as well that Miami is a horrible 2-8 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more, while Washington is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 when playing on one days rest. The Wizards need a win desperately and they simply couldn’t have asked for a better overall situation with this one. Everything points to a home side rout in my opinion, so lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Jets -145 v. Rangers | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Winnipeg Jets (7:00 EST). Winnipeg comes in off a gritty 3-2 road win over Carolina, while the Rangers enter off a 3-2 road victory over Edmonton. The Jets are 15-17 on the road, averaging 2.84 goals and conceding 2.78 in those contests. Overall Winnipeg averages 3.35 GPG and it allows 2.66. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is 34-18 with a 2.40 GAA, including 11-11 with a 2.48 GAA on the road. The Rangers average 2.97 goals and allow 2.81 at home this season. Overall New York averages 2.82 GPG and it concedes 3.11. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 16-11 with a 2.83 GAA on the year. I’ll point out though that the Jets are 8-2 in their last ten against teams with losing records and 30-14 in their last 44 when playing on one days rest, while the Rangers are just 12-19 (-5.5 units) this year against clubs with winning records. After three straight road wins, all signs point to a classic letdown for the overachieving Rangers. Winnipeg is fighting for playoff positioning and I expect it to take advantage in The Big Apple. Lay the price, play on the Jets. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Wake Forest +4 v. Syracuse | 64-73 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 34 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wake Forest (7:00 EST). The 11-19 Wake Forest Demon Deacons get set to battle the 19-12 Syracuse Orange in the ACC Tournament on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. Wake looks to avenge a 78-70 road loss to Syracuse on February 11th. Syracuse shot 46 percent from the floor in that one, including 6 of 12 from range. Tyus Battle led the way for the Orange with 34 points. The Demon Deacons shot 43.6 percent in the losing cause, including 44 percent from range. Both teams backed their way into the tournament, with Wake losing three of four and ‘Cuse dropping four of six. Syracuse scored a big win over Clemson in its home finale and I think it looks poised for classic letdown here. Wake Forest averages 73.6 PPG and it concedes 74.4. Bryant Crawford leads the nightly charge with 16.7 points, 2.9 boards and 4.8 assists per game. Syracuse averages 67.6 PPG and it concedes 64.1. Battle averages 20 points and three boards per game, while Frank Howard adds 15.2 points, 3.4 boards and five assists per night. I’m expecting an all out war until the end and in a contest which I do indeed envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-06-18 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame OVER 133.5 | Top | 64-67 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* ACC TOURNEY TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over Pittsburgh/Notre Dame (2:30 EST). Both teams have had issues with injuries this year and the result wasn’t pretty. Pittsburgh finished 0-18 in the ACC, while Notre Dame was 8-10. Note that when these teams played on February 28th, it was the Irish that pulled away for the 73-56 home victory. Pittsburgh comes in averaging just 62 PPG, while conceding 72.5. After losing forward Ryan Luther in a loss to West Virginia in early December, the Panthers were never able to recover. Notre Dame won’t be going to the NCAA Tournament, but the Irish won’t be rolling over today either. Keep your eyes on Bonzie Colson, who had 12 points and nine boards in the win over the Eagles earlier in the year. Despite its offensive struggles this season, I’ll point out that Boston College has in fact seen the total go over the number in three of its last four conference tournament games, while Notre Dame has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of 14 as a favorite this season and in five of eight off a loss against a conference rival. Two teams which disappointed in the regular season have one last chance to redeem. This one has the feel of a wide open, faster-paced affair. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-05-18 | BYU v. St. Mary's -4.5 | Top | 85-72 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Saint Mary’s (11:30 EST). BYU is 23-9 overall and it’s 5-2 in is last seven after beating San Diego in the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament. Saint Mary’s comes in at 28-4 overall and it’s now won four straight after getting the better of Pepperdine on Saturday. The Cougars beat San Diego 85-79, but they’ve lost five-straight to the Gaels, including a 74-64 OT setback at home on December 30th. These teams played in the conference tournament last year as well and the Gaels easily handled the Cougars 81-50. BYU is led by guard Elijah Bryant with 17.9 points and 6.4 boards per game. Saint Mary’s won’t be leaving anything to chance today either as it had to rally from a 15-point first half deficit to get by No. 10 seed Pepperdine 69-66: “It wasn’t pretty, but we will take the win,” Gaels head coach Randy Bennett assessed afterwards. “Pepperdine has been playing well. It was a tough game. There was a lot of pressure on us. I wasn’t particularly happy with how we played, but I was happy with how our guys stayed together and stayed the course. Our seniors stepped up when we needed them to and we were able to escape.” One player to keep your eyes on today is Saint Mary’s 6’ 11” center Jock Landale, who finished with 32 points and 14 boards in a 75-62 home win over the Cougars on January 25th. I’ll point out that BYU is 0-6 ATS in its last six following a SU win though and a poor 17-37-1 ATS in its last 55 neutral-site contests, while Saint Mary’s is 7-3 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss. After their “near disaster” last time out, I expect the Gaels to come in razor focused here. BYU certainly plays with revenge, but this is bad matchup and a horrible spot to catch this superior team in. I’m expecting a rout, so lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-05-18 | Coyotes v. Oilers -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
This is a 10* PUCK-LINE WAGER OF THE MONTH on the Edmonton Oilers (9:05 EST). I believe the conditions are right for a lop-sided home victory tonight. Arizona comes to town off a 2-1 home win over Ottawa (I had the Coyotes in that one), while the Oilers check in off a 3-2 home loss to the Rangers. The Coyotes have won seven of their last nine, but they still have the fewest points in the league. Regression seems imminent and suffice it to say, I expect that decline to start this evening. Arizona averages 2.40 GPG on the road and it concedes 3.43. Goaltender Antti Raanta is 15-21 with a 2.43 GAA overall and 6-8 with a 2.70 GAA on the road. The Oilers come in desperate here as they’ve lost three straight. So far Edmonton is 13-19 at home this year, averaging 2.78 goals and conceding 3.53 in those contests. Goaltender Cam Talbot is 22-28 with a 3.12 GAA this year, including 13-14 with a 3.22 GAA at home. I think it’s significant to note though that Arizona is just 4-15 (-10.9 units) against the division this year, while the Oilers are 12-8 (+4.8 units) in the same position. Edmonton is under the microscope on home ice tonight and I look for the team to respond in a big way. Great value here in my opinion. Play on Edmonton the puck-line. Good luck…Larry |
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03-05-18 | Pistons +7 v. Cavs | Top | 90-112 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Pistons (7:00 EST). Detroit won’t be rolling over as it comes in having lost two straight, most recently a 105-96 road setback in Miami on Saturday. Cleveland can empathize, as it comes in having lost two straight as well, most recently a 126-117 home setback to Denver on Saturday. Note that so far the Cavs have taken two of three meetings between the clubs this season. Detroit averages 103.1 PPG and it concedes 104. Blake Griffin averages 21.5 points, 7.6 boards and 5.5 assists per night, while Andre Drummond adds 15.2 points, 15.8 boards and 1.64 steals per game. Griffin did everything he could in his team’s latest loss with 31 points and six assists. The Cavaliers average 110 PPG and they concede 110.1. LeBron James averages 26.7 points, 8.4 boards and 9.1 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 17.9 points and 9.4 boards. The problem for Cleveland right now though is that Love remains injured. Cleveland’s new pieces have looked good at times and pretty pedestrian in others. It’s a night to night balancing act for James until Love returns. No excuses for the Pistons though, who have had well over a month to work Griffin into the fold. I’ll point out that Detroit is 7-4 ATS against the division this year, while Cleveland is just 5-7 ATS against divisional opponents. Both teams have more questions than answers right now, but the overall situation points to a very competitive affair in my opinion. As such, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-18 | Nets +9.5 v. Clippers | 120-123 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on the Brooklyn Nets (9:05 EST). Brooklyn remains competitive, although it comes in off a second straight loss, this time falling 116-111 in OT to Sacramento on Thursday. LA comes in complacent though in my opinion after smashing the Knicks 128-105 at home on Friday. Not surprisingly, this sets up as a revenge game for the visitors after the Clippers won 114-101 on the road in the first matchup in mid February. Brooklyn enters averaging 105.6 PPG and it concedes 109.7. D’Angelo Russell leads the nightly charge with 15.8 points and five assists per night, while DeMarre Carroll adds 13.4 points and 6.6 boards. LA averages 108.9 PPG and it concedes 107.8. DeAndre Jordan averages 11.8 points and 15 boards per game, while Lou Williams adds 23.2 points and 5.4 assists per night. Williams had 21 points and eight assists in the Clippers most recent victory over the hapless Knicks. I’ll point out though that Brooklyn has performed well in this spot for bettors by going 22-13 ATS against clubs with winning records this year. The Nets are also 16-9 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest. The Clippers have been playing extremely well, but note that they’re still only 22-30 ATS in their last 52 after scoring 115 points or more in their previous contest. With New Orleans and Cleveland coming to town next, I think the home side gets caught looking past its lowly non-conference opponent this evening. Grab the points, play on the Nets. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-18 | Blue Jackets v. Sharks -150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Jose Sharks (9:00 EST). The 32-28-5 Columbus Blue Jackets are in San Jose to take on the 35-21-9 Sharks on Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I absolutely believe that the home side is worth the price of admission in this spot. Columbus enters off a 4-2 road loss to the Ducks, while San Jose cruised to a 7-2 win against Chicago in its latest action. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances here as it would take the first meeting of the season between the clubs 3-1. The Blue Jackets’ achilles heel is on the offensive side of the puck, averaging just 2.6 GPG, ranked 29th in the league. Columbus is stout defensively by conceding 2.8 GPG, as goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky is 27-21-5 with a 2.45 GAA. San Jose averages 2.9 GPG and it concedes 2.7. Netminder Martin Jones is 21-16-6 with a 2.50 GAA thus far. Note that Columbus is just 1-4 in its last five on the road, while San Jose is a perfect 4-0 in its last four in front of the home town crowd. The Sharks have been particularly potent offensively of late, averaging 4.2 GPG over their last ten home games. Columbus comes in concluding its Western swing, playing for a third time in four nights. This line could easily be a lot higher in my opinion, great value on the Sharks. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-18 | Hornets +9 v. Raptors | Top | 98-103 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Charlotte Hornets (6:05 EST). The Hornets will be hungry and focused here after dropping their second straight in a 110-99 setback at Philadelphia on Friday. Conversely, I think this sets up as a bit of a letdown spot for the Raptors after they won their third straight in a 102-95 road effort in Washington on Friday. And to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as Toronto has so far won all three meetings this year, including a 123-103 road victory on February 11th in the most recent. The Hornets average 106.7 PPG and they concede 106.7 as well. Kemba Walker leads the nightly charge with 23.1 points and 5.8 assists per night, while Dwight Howard adds 15.9 points and 12.4 boards per game. The Raptors average 112.1 PPG and they concede 103.4. DeMar DeRozan leads the way with 23.7 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Kyle Lowry chips in 16.5 points, 5.7 boards and 6.5 assists. With bottom feeder Atlanta up next, it’s not too hard to imagine the red hot Raptors finally having a bit of mental letdown here. Clearly the revenge-minded Hornets don’t have the same luxury as the team tries to desperately stay in the playoff picture. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, everything points to a very competitive battle in my opinion. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-04-18 | Tulane v. UCF UNDER 130.5 | Top | 51-60 | Win | 100 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the under Tulane/UCF (4:30 EST). Tulane is 14-15 overall and 5-12 in league play. UCF is 17-12 overall and 8-9 in conference action and it comes in having lost three straight. UCF looks poised for a bit of a mental letdown here in my opinion after its “close but no cigar” 75-71 loss to No. 11 Wichita State in its most recent action. The Green wave average 73.8 PPG and they concede 74.3. The Knights average just 62.9 PPG and they concede only 61.7. Tulane looked horrible offensively in its latest loss though, falling 78-49 to Cincinnati on Thursday, managing to connect on just 31 percent shooting from the floor. I’ll point out as well that the Green Wave have already seen the total go under the number in three of four this year when the total in the contest is set between 130 and 139 1/2 and in four of five against good defensive clubs which concede 64 points or less, while UCF has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight when playing the role of favorite. I believe these two disinterested teams go through the motions today and I expect this one to ultimately stay below the number once the final horn sounds. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | UC-Davis +4.5 v. Cal-Irvine | Top | 90-84 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on UC Davis (10:30 EST). The regular season Big West title is up for grabs here and as such, I’m expecting an all out battle until the final horn. UC Davis has won four straight, while UC Irvine has won eight of its last nine. Both enter at 11-4 in league play, but UC Davis has the much better overall record at 20-9, while UC Irvine is 16-15. Note that if recent history is any precedence, then UC Davis has to be loving its chances tonight, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was the Aggies which posted the 66-57 win. Most recently the Aggies got the better of Hawaii 70-59, holding the Rainbow Warriors to just 21 points in the first half. Davis also forced 16 turnovers in the victory, its fourth straight in which it’s held its opponent to 63 points or less. UC Irvine also comes in off a win over Hawaii, getting 19 points from Evan Leonard in the 66-57 victory on Saturday. Davis has been the better team all year and it’s a difficult matchup again here for the Ant Eaters. I’m expecting another war and for this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. As such, grab as many points as you can. Play on UC Davis. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | Lakers v. Spurs UNDER 219 | Top | 116-112 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under Lakers/Spurs (9:05 EST). I think the Lakers have a bit of a mental letdown here after winning four straight, most recently smashing the Heat 131-113 on the road on Thursday. The Spurs clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here after falling 121-116 at home to New Orleans in their most recent action. Note that the Lakers posted the lower-scoring 93-81 home win in the first meeting between the clubs this season and in my opinion, all signs point to a similar final combined outcome here as well. LA averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 110. Isaiah Thomas had 29 points off the bench in his teams most recent victory. San Antonio averages only 102.2 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive side by conceding a league best 99.2 PPG. Rudy Gay came off the bench to score 19 points in the loss to the Pelicans. Despite its recent success, I’ll point out that LA has still seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of 13 already this season when playing with two days of rest. In my opinion, everything points to the under as the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Duke | 64-74 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmakers Error is on North Carolina (8:15 EST). UNC enters off a 91-88 home loss to Miami, while Duke comes in off a 64-63 setback to Virginia Tech. The Tar Heels are 11-6 in conference play, while the Blue Devils are 12-5. These two teams played to a tight affair in the first meeting this year, one which UNC prevailed 82-78 in. North Carolina averages 83.6 PPG and it concedes 74.0. In their most recent setback the Tar Heels gave up just two turnovers, but they’d allow Miami to hit 54.8 percent from the floor. Duke averages 85.5 PPG and it concedes 69.6. Grayson Allen led the way in the losing cause last time out with 22 points, but the Blue Devils struggled on the defensive end. These are two of the best teams in the nation and whenever they get together, it’s always an all out war. Nothing is going to change tonight either. Look for UNC to keep this one competitive until the final moments and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on UNC. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | Senators v. Coyotes -130 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Coyotes (8:00 EST). I base my picks on many different things and plain old “common sense” is one of them. No need to go into great detail for this one. Ottawa is a horrible team, which has done tremendously poor on the road. The Senators though come in off a 5-4 win at Las Vegas just last night and suffice it to say, there’s no question that this one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors this evening. Arizona has also been a complete disaster overall this year, but the Coyotes come in playing their best hockey of the entire season with seven wins in their last ten outings, including a 5-3 victory over Minnesota in their most recent. And with an extended road trip through Canada starting on Monday, tonight’s contest takes on added importance for the home side as well. All things considered, I feel this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | George Washington v. Dayton -4.5 | 78-88 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Dayton (3:00 EST). George Washington has won four of its last five after getting the better of Fordham 72-56 most recently. Yuta Watanabe led the way in that one with 12 points. The Colonials enter this one averaging 101.2 points per 100 possessions during league play, while allowing 106.3 points per 100 possessions. Dayton though comes in razor focused here after dropping two straight, most recently a 71-53 road setback at La Salle. Trey Landers was a bright spot in that one with 17 points, while Josh Cunningham added ten. The Flyers average 107.3 points per 100 possessions during conference action, while allowing 111.4. I’ll point out though that the Colonials are just 2-4 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while the Flyers are a solid 4-2 ATS this season after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest. With one last chance to impress in from tot the home town crowd, I like the Flyers to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | Wake Forest +2.5 v. Georgia Tech | 56-64 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Wake Forest (12:00 EST). The 11-18 Wake Forest Demon Deacons are at Georgia Tech to take on the 12-18 Yellow Jackets on Saturday afternoon and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Wake Forest enters off a 76-71 home loss to Notre Dame, while Georgia Tech is off an upset 78-75 home win over NC State on Thursday. If recent history is any precedence though, then Wake has to be liking its chances for a bounce back tonight, because when these teams met earlier in the year it was the Demon Deacons which posted the convincing 79-62 home victory. Wake Forest averages 74.2 PPG and it concedes 74.8. In the loss to the Fighting Irish the Demon Deacons would post 44 percent from the floor and they’d get 13 points and six assists from Kershawn Woods. Georgia Tech averages just 65.3 PPG and it concedes only 67.6. Tadric Jackson had 22 points in the win over the Wolfpack. Neither team has lived up to expectations, but after their latest “close call” to Notre Dame, I’m expecting the Demon Deacons to come out completely focused here. This is a bad matchup for the Yellow Jackets and they look poised for a letdown after their big win. Grab the points, play on Wake Forest. Good luck…Larry |
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03-03-18 | Kentucky v. Florida -5 | 67-80 | Win | 100 | 19 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Florida (12:00 EST). The 21-9 Kentucky Wildcats are at Florida to take on the 19-11 Gators and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Kentucky comes in off a 21 point win over Missouri on Saturday, led by 21 points in 24 minutes from Kevin Knox, who was mentioned in the FBI report into the NCAA’s illegal recruiting practices. It was the Wildcats biggest margin of victory in SEC play this year, against a tournament team in the Tigers no less. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors are poised for a letdown here. After winning two in a row, there’s no doubt that this game means a lot to Florida today as it’s tied with two other teams for third-place in the conference. As such, I’m expecting the home side to risk life and limb to try and secure the victory. I’ll point out as well that UK is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten on the road, while the home team is 8-3 ATS in the last 11 in this series. Florida already got the better of Kentucky 66-64 in mid January and everything points to a comfortable cover here as well. Lay the points, play on the Gators. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-18 | Iowa State v. Oklahoma -9.5 | Top | 60-81 | Win | 100 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* REVENGE GAME OF THE MONTH is on Oklahoma (9:00 EST). Oklahoma is on the bubble after losing seven of its last eight. The Sooners need a win here and one in the tournament to remain eligible most likely. Iowa State upset Oklahoma 88-80 earlier in the year, but it’s already guaranteed the last-place seed in the upcoming Big 12 tournament. This is an extremely meaningful game for the Sooners. Sure the Cyclones would love to play spoiler again and somehow manage to steal the season series, but I don’t predict that happening. Iowa State comes into this one with zero momentum after losing five straight, most recently dropping an 80-71 decision to Oklahoma State. Overall the team shot just 39.7 percent from the floor, led by 20 points from Lindell Wigginton. Oklahoma needs to gather itself quickly after falling 87-64 at Baylor last time out, shooting just 37.7 percent from the floor. Trae Young was a bright spot though with 18 points. I’ll point out as well that Iowa State is just 5-7 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival, while Oklahoma is 2-0 ATS this year as a home fav of 9.5 to 12 points and it’s also 14-9 ATS in its last 23 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. It’s “do or die” for the Sooners essentially this evening and I’m expecting them to play like it. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-18 | Mavs v. Bulls +1.5 | Top | 100-108 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Chicago Bulls (8:05 EST). Dallas beat Indiana 109-103 and then promptly fell 111-110 in OT to the Thunder in its next outing. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors have a predictable letdown here after that “close miss.” Chicago won’t be playing in the postseason, it’s just 20-41 overall. Injuries to its starting line-up is one of the main reasons for the overall poor record, but the team continues to get healthier as the season comes to a close. The Bulls will be hungry here as they’ve lost five straight. They knocked off Dallas 127-124 in early January and I believe they’re going to do it again here at home as well. Dallas averages 102.1 PPG and it concedes 104.7. Harrison Barnes was a bright spot in the losing cause to OKC with 26 points and he leads the nightly charge with 18.3 points, plus 6.4 boards per night. Chicago averages 103.3 PPG and it concedes 109.6. Zach LaVine has put up 17.7 points per night since returning to the line-up, while Lauri Markkanen adds 14.8 points, plus 7.6 boards per game. I’ll point out as well that Dallas is just 6-11 ATS as the favorite this year, while Chicago is 4-2 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. With a night off before an extended home stand, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors coming in complacent here against their lowly non-conference opponent. But the Bulls clearly don’t have the same luxury as they desperately try to break the skid. This one sets up beautifully for Chicago in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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03-02-18 | Canadiens v. Islanders -134 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -134 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Islanders (7:05 EST). This is the second game of a home and home set between the clubs. The Habs took Game 1 at home 3-1 on Wednesday (I actually had Montreal in that one.) But with the shift in venue, I like the struggling Islanders to get some immediate payback tonight. Note that Montreal is 8-21 on the road, averaging 2.17 goals and conceding 3.48 in those contests. Goaltender Antti Niemi is now 4-8 with a 3.53 GAA on the year, including just 1-6 with a 4.43 GAA on the road. New York is 16-15 at home, averaging 3.48 GPG and conceding 3.58 in those games. Netminder Jaroslav Halak is 18-26 with a 3.18 GAA, including 11-12 with a 3.29 GAA at home. Christopher Gibson could be in net for the home side, and he was 18-11-1 with a 2.31 GAA with the Bridgeport Sound Tigers this year. I’ll point out though that Montreal is just 5-12 in its last 17 when playing one days worth of rest, while New York is 35-16 in its last 51 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. I think New York is the much “hungrier” team in this matchup and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-18 | Hawaii v. UC-Davis -5 | 59-70 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT is on UC Davis (10:00 EST). Hawaii is 7-7 in league play, while UC Davis is 10-4. The Warriors’ three-game win streak was snapped in a listless 66-57 setback at UC Irvine last time out and suffice it to say, I think they’re going to suffer a letdown here in this equally as difficult atmosphere. Hawaii was down by nine at halftime and was never able to recover in the second half against the Ant Eaters. Evan Leonard was a bright spot with 19 points. Note that they looked particularly poor shooting, going just 18 of 52 from the field. Meanwhile the Aggies are going to be trying to avenge a 77-72 loss to Hawaii earlier this season and in my opinion, all signs do indeed point to a lop-sided blowout. UC Davis though kept pace in the conference race with a 64-63 win over UC Riverside in its most recent action. TJ Shorts II was a standout with 16 points, but it was the Aggies’ defensive play which impressed the most, holding the Highlanders to just 26 percent from range, while also forcing 15 turnovers. I’ll point out as well that this is a spot in which the Warriors have struggled in of late for bettors by going just 2-5 ATS in their last seven road games against a team with a winning home record, while this is a position in which the Aggies have excelled in by going 7-2 ATS in their last nine after an ATS loss. With revenge on its mind, I look for UC Davis to put the pedal to the metal from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-18 | Nets v. Kings +1 | Top | 111-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Sacramento Kings (10:05 EST). The Nets lost for the ninth time in their last ten games in a “close but not cigar” 129-123 setback at Cleveland on Tuesday, while the Kings enter having lost five in a row, most recently a 116-99 setback at Portland on Tuesday. Brooklyn averages 105.5 PPG and it concedes 109.6. D’Angelo Russell leads the way with 15.8 points and 4.8 assist per game, while DeMarre Carroll adds 13.3 points and 6.6 boards per night. Note that Russell led the way in the loss to the Cavs with 25 points and six assists. Sacramento averages 99 PPG and it concedes 107.2. De’Aaron Fox averages 11.4 points, 2.6 boards and 4.4 assists per night, while Buddy Hield averages 12.7. Veteran Zach Randolph had 20 points in a losing cause to the Blazers last time out. I’ll point out though that Brooklyn is interestingly just 3-7 ATS in its last ten against poor defensive clubs which allow 106 plus points per night, while Sacramento is 26-19 ATS the last two years after three or more consecutive SU losses. With upcoming games at the Clippers and Golden State to end their Western swing, I think the Nets come out complacent here against the lowly, albeit extremely “hungry” Kings. A great spot for Sacramento to get back into the winners circle. Play on the Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-18 | Oregon v. Washington State +7.5 | 76-78 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Washington State (9:00 EST). Oregon is on the bubble and it comes in off consecutive victories, most recently getting the better of ASU and Arizona. Washington State won’t be invited to the Big Dance, but it won’t be rolling over here in my opinion either. The Cougars come into this one having split their last four games and to say this is a “revenge scenario” would be an understatement as well as the Ducks have taken four straight in the series. Oregon looks poised for another run at the Tournament after the back-to-back home victories over the schools from Arizona, but I think it comes in “gassed” here after its epic 98-93 OT win over the Wildcats. Elijah Brown finished with a team high 30 points, going 15 of 17 from the charity stripe in that one. The Cougars beat Cal, but then came up short in an 86-84 shootout loss at Stanford in their most recent action. WSU looked good though in the setback by connecting on 56.7 percent from the floor, including 11 of 23 from range. Robert Franks had 19 points and six boards in the losing cause. I’ll point out though that Oregon is just 5-6 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest, while Washington State is a highly respectable 7-5 ATS at home this season. The Cougars have been playing a lot better and I think that improvement carries over and pushes the Ducks to to the brink tonight. Grab the points, play on Washington State. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-18 | Virginia v. Louisville +4 | Top | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Louisville (8:00 EST). The 26-2 Virginia Cavaliers are in Louisville to take on the 19-10 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. After a loss to Virginia Tech, the Cavaliers have reeled off three straight victories since, most recently over Pittsburgh. Louisville will be hungry here after breaking a two-game slide by getting the better of Virginia Tech last weekend. If you’ve been following the College basketball season this year, then you know that Virginia gets the job done with smothering defensive play, conceding just 52.1 PPG. The Cavs steamrolled the Panthers 66-37 on Saturday and with the victory the team secured the league title and the No. 1 seed in the conference tournament. If ever the Cavs were going to have a bit of a mental “letdown,” then this is clearly the spot in my opinion. The Cards enter off the 75-68 win over VT last Saturday and a victory over the No. 1 would greatly enhance their resume for the upcoming Dance. Louisville averages 77.2 PPG and it got 22 points out of Quentin Snider in the Cardinals’ most recent victory. With an equally as tough game at NC State up next, Louisville will need to leave everything it has on the court tonight to try and score the upset here. The last thing Virginia wants to do is to take the foot off the gas at this point of the season, but after scoring the conference regular season crown and the No. 1 seed in the Conference tournament, and with a “cream puff” against Notre Dame at home to end the campaign up next, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors finally having a small letdown here. Note that this is also an “in-season revenge game” for the Cardinals after they fell 74-64 at Virginia on January 31st. Grab as many points as you can, play on Louisville. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-18 | Penguins v. Bruins -128 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Boston Bruins (7:00 EST). Pittsburgh comes to town off a 3-2 home loss to New Jersey, while Boston enters off a 4-3 OT victory at home over Carolina. Pittsburgh’s achilles heel this year has clearly been its play on the road (just 13-19 away from friendly confines), where it’s averaged 2.81 GPG and conceded 3.13. Matt Murray is out with a concussion, meaning we’re going to see either Casey DeSmith, who gave up three goals on 38 shots in the Penguins setback to the Devils (note that he’s 1-2 with a 2.48 GAA on the road), or Tristan Jarry, who is 4-4 with a 2.35 GAA on the road. Boston’s strength this season has been its play at home where it’s gone 20-11 while averaging 3.26 GPG and conceding just 2.39 (No. 1 in the league.) Netminder Tuukka Rask is 24-15 with a 2.23 GAA overall on the year, including 16-7 with a 1.99 GAA at home. I think it’s significant to note as well that Pittsburgh is 0-4 in its last four trips to Boston, while the Bruins are 13-3 in their last 16 when playing on one days rest. The Penguins have struggled on the road all year and they’re without their No. 1 goaltender for this one. After winning six straight, Pittsburgh has now dropped two in a row and I predict that slide to continue for at least one more game. In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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03-01-18 | Iowa v. Michigan -9.5 | 71-77 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Michigan (2:30 EST). It’s No. 12 Iowa vs. No. 7 Michigan from Madison Square Garden and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. Iowa beat lowly Illinois (barely) 96-87 in the first round to advance to the second and its prize is a date against the Wolverines, a team its already lost twice to (74-59 and 75-68.) The Hawkeyes average 80 PPG and they concede 78.8. Jorden Bohannon had 25 points and six assists to lead Iowa in the victory over Illinois. Michigan comes in on top form as well here with five straight wins. The Wolverines average 74.3 PPG and they concede 63.4. Most recently Michigan finished up its regular season campaign with an 85-61 road victory over Maryland last weekend, led by 28 points, eight boards and seven assists from Muhammad-Ali Abdur-Rahkman. Iowa got its big conference tournament win, but all signs point to a predictable letdown here. I expect the Wolverines to make a statement to open the tournament and to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-18 | Syracuse v. Boston College | 70-85 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Syracuse (9:00 EST). The 18-11 Syracuse Orange are at Boston College to take on the 16-13 Eagles on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. BC has lost three straight, most recently to Miami Florida, while Syracuse is just 1-3 in its last four, most recently falling to UNC and Duke. After back-to-back losses to those two heavyweights though, I expect the Orange to bounce back and take advantage of this favorable matchup. Syracuse has in fact lost five of its last eight overall and it needs to win out to avoid a losing conference record for the first time since 2005. Top players Oshae Brissett, Frank Howard and Tyus Battle combined to go a horrible 10 of 39 against the Blue Devils: “We didn’t attack the basket like we usually do,” Brissett explained. “We haven’t seen a zone in a couple games, especially all game, so it was just hard to go up against their big guys down there.” BC’s hopes of an at-large tournament bid are basically over after its crushing 79-78 loss at Miami on the weekend. The Eagles would go on to blow a late 14-point lead in that one: “We just lost our composure; didn’t make free-throws,” Eagles’ head coach Jim Christian said afterwards. “We were the leading free-throw shooting team in the league two games ago. Offensively, we were really good all game long until the last two minutes.” Note that BC guard Ky Bowman is just 3 for 17 from range over his last four games. Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse has in fact done extremely well in this spot all year for bettors by going 5-2 ATS after scoring 60 points or less in its previous outing, while BC has struggled in this position by going just 11-18 ATS in its last 29 after three or more consecutive SU losses. When these teams met at Syracuse earlier in the year, it was the Orange that won easily 81-63. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final score in this one as well. Great value, play on Syracuse. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-18 | Florida State +4.5 v. Clemson | Top | 63-76 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* ACC BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on Florida State (9:00 EST). The 19-9 Florida State Seminoles are at Clemson to take on the 21-7 Tigers on Wednesday night and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, everything points to this one being decided by whichever of these talented teams has its hands on the ball last. Clemson broke a three-game slide with a win over Georgia Tech on Saturday, while FSU’s two-game win streak was snapped in a setback at NC State last weekend. Trent Forest had 16 points and seven assists, while Braian Angola added 14 points in the Seminoles 92-72 blowout defeat at the Wolfpack. FSU is headed to the big dance, but the team will definitely be looking to get back on track with two games remaining before the conference tourney: “The ACC is very unforgiving now,” FSU head coach Leonard Hamilton assessed recently. “You can’t go on the road in the ACC and play okay and win. That’s not good enough. You’re going to have to play very well, especially on the road, against any team in our league.” If recent history is any precedence, then Florida State has to be loving it chances tonight as well, because the Seminoles beat the Tigers 81-79 in OT two weeks ago. Clemson did manage a win last time out against Georgi Tech, but it had to rally from a double-digit deficit (twice), to gut out the victory. I’ll point out as well that Florida State is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 3.5 to six points range, while Clemson is just 10-12 ATS in its last 22 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. The Tigers come in off the highly satisfying win and get caught flat-footed against this determined Seminoles side in my opinion. And as mentioned off the top, while the outright, straight-up victory is clearly not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Florida State. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-18 | Pelicans v. Spurs UNDER 220 | Top | 121-116 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the under between the Pelicans and Spurs (8:35 EST). The 34-26 New Orleans Pelicans are in San Antonio to take on the 36-25 Spurs on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. New Orleans has won six straight behind some amazing play from big man Anthony Davis, but I think he and the surging Pelicans will get slowed down tonight against the Spurs tough defense and their big LaMarcus Aldridge. The Pelicans currently sit 1.5 games behind San Antonio for fourth place in the West. Davis most recently posted 53 points, 18 boards and five blocks in a 125-116 win over the Suns on Monday. San Antonio snapped a four-game slide with a 110-94 win over Cleveland on Sunday and suffice it to say, I expect the team to carry that momentum over here. The Spurs got some very encouraging news as well recently, as Kawhi Leonard is expected to return to the line-up within the next week or so. I’ll point out that New Orleans has seen the total go under the number in 25 of its last 42 against the division, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten already this year after playing three consecutive road games and in ten of 12 when playing with two days of rest. The Pelicans beat the Spurs 107-90 at home on November 22nd and in my opinion, everything points to a similar final combined score here as well. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-18 | Bucks v. Pistons -2 | 87-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Detroit Pistons (7:05 EST). Milwaukee has lost three of its last four, most recently falling 107-104 at home to Washington just last night, while Detroit enters having lost three straight, most recently a 123-94 setback in Toronto on Monday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Pistons, as Milwaukee has taken two of three in the season series already this year, including a 104-100 victory in the most recent matchup back on December 6th. Milwaukee comes into this one averaging 105.2 PPG and it concedes 105.2 as well. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 27.6 points, 10.3 boards, 4.9 assists, 1.31 blocks and 1.44 steals per game. Note that the Bucks are just 14-15 on the road this year. Detroit averages 103.1 PPG and it concedes 104.1. Blake Griffin averages 21.8 points, 7.8 boards and 5.4 assists per night, while Andre Drummond adds 15.1 points, 15.7 boards and 1.6 steals per game. I’ll point out though that Milwaukee is just 3-6 ATS against the division this year, while Detroit is 7-4 ATS in the same position. The Bucks come in tired and dejected after last night’s setback. The Pistons have been playing terribly of late, but they’re not out of the playoff picture yet. Here’s the perfect opponent and opportunity to get untracked against. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided blowout. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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02-28-18 | Islanders v. Canadiens -107 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Montreal Canadiens (7:00 EST). This is the first game of a home and home set and as such, I’m expecting the struggling home side to risk life and limb to secure a much-needed victory. New York comes to town off a 2-1 loss to New Jersey, while the Habs fell 1-0 at home in a shootout to Philadelphia in their most recent action. The Isles are 13-19 on the road, averaging 3.00 GPG and conceding 3.50 in those contests. Jaroslav Halak is 18-25 with a 3.18 GAA, including just 7-13 with a 3.06 GAA on the road. The Canadiens are 15-18 at home, averaging 2.79 goals and conceding 2.67 in those contests. Goaltender Antti Niemi is 3-8 with a 3.76 GAA this year. Note though that he’s 2-2 with a 2.88 GAA in front of the home town crowd. I’ll also point out that New York is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after three or more consecutive losses, while Montreal is 4-1 in its last five home games against teams with a losing road record. The Habs are competing right now, with back-to-back extra time losses and I believe that hard work will finally translate into a win for the home side. Great price, play on Montreal. Good luck…Larry |
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02-27-18 | Predators v. Jets -119 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -119 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT is on the Winnipeg Jets (8:00 EST). Nashville looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its 4-0 home win over St. Louis. Winnipeg returns home looking to build off its 5-3 road win over Dallas. The Predators enter averaging 3.13 GPG and conceding 2.46. Goaltender Pekka Rinne is 32-13 with a 2.27 GAA overall this season. The Jets average 3.28 GPG and they concede 2.65. Connor Hellebuyck is 32-17 with a 2.32 GAA this year and he’s 22-6 with a 2.18 GAA at home. I’ll point out though that Nashville is a poor 3-5 (-3.1 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous game, while Winnipeg is 8-4 (+2.4 units) in its last 12 against clubs with winning records. The Jets have been better at home than on the road this year, averaging a whopping 3.82 GPG in Winnipeg. I’m going to call the goaltenders a “wash” in this one, but I think the value swings to the Jets at home here. Good luck…Larry |
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02-27-18 | 76ers v. Heat +1 | Top | 101-102 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT is on the Miami Heat (7:30 EST). Philadelphia had its seven game win streak snapped in a 109-94 road loss to Washington on Sunday, while Miami broke a three-game slide with a convincing 115-89 home win over Memphis on Saturday. Note that this is an in-season double-revenge scenario for Miami, as Philadelphia has already taken both previous meetings, including a 104-102 victory at home in the most recent on February 14th. Philadelphia comes in averaging 107.6 PPG and it concedes 105.7. Big man Joel Embiid had 25 points and ten boards in the setback to the Wizards and he’s leading the team with 23.9 points, 11.2 boards and 1.83 blocks per night. Miami averages 101.1 PPG and it concedes 101.6. Hassan Whiteside averages 14.2 points and 11.9 boards per night, while guard Goran Dragic adds 17.4 points, 4.1 boards and 4.9 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 13-16 ATS on the road this year and only 2-4 ATS in its last six following a loss by ten points or more, while Miami is 16-9 ATS in its last 25 against teams with winning records and 3-1 ATS after scoring 115 points or more. Miami is in a dog fight right now for the final playoff spot and after small stretch of poor play, the team looks to build off its latest victory. A date vs. the 76ers is just what the doctor ordered to keep the motivation levels high, because as mentioned above, this does indeed set up as a double revenge spot for the home side tonight. Philadelphia has been playing extremely well, but I think the loss to the Wizards gets carried over here. In my opinion, this one has blowout written all over it. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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02-27-18 | Oklahoma State +1 v. Iowa State | Top | 80-71 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT is on Oklahoma State (7:00 EST). The 16-13 Oklahoma State Cowboys are in Iowa to take on the 13-15 Cyclones on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Oklahoma State looks to take out its frustrations tonight after a tight 65-64 road loss to Texas. And here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as the lowly Cyclones enter off a humbling 85-70 loss to WVU on Saturday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Cowboys have to be loving their chances tonight because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was OKS which pulled away for the 96-87 victory. The Cowboys average 76.6 PPG and they concede 73.6. Jeffrey Carroll was a bright spot in OKS’s latest loss with 19 points. Iowa State averages 73.7 PPG and it concedes 75.4. Lindell Wigginton had 29 points in the loss to the Mountaineers, while Cameron Lard added eight points and ten boards. I’ll point out though that OKS is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road and 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 road games as an underdog in the 0.5 point to 6.5 points range, while Iowa State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. OKS has some big road wins this year, including at Kansas and WVU. Iowa State has given up an average of 83 points over its last five games and the Cyclones were held to just 40 percent shooting in their first matchup with the Cowboys this season. In my opinion, the stage is set for a big time blowout victory for the visitors. Play on Oklahoma State. Good luck…Larry |
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02-26-18 | Rockets v. Jazz +2.5 | Top | 96-85 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE REVENGE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). I think the Rockets finally stumble here after 12 straight victories, most recently beating the Nuggets last night. But not to be outdone, the Jazz have also been on top form of late. Utah lost to Portland on Friday, but that was its first setback since January 22nd. ’ll point out that the Rockets’ Eric Gordon, who missed last night’s very satisfying 119-114 win at Denver with an illness, is also questionable for this one. After 11 straight victories, the Jazz were outdone by a Damian Lillard buzzer beater in their latest setback. Donovan Mitchell has now posted 21 or more points in six straight games. Note that guard Ricky Rubio is back in the line-up for this one after sitting out the Portland setback. It’s interesting to note though that Houston is just 56-61 ATS in it last 117 against teams with winning records, while Utah is already 7-3 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest and a near-perfect 5-1 ATS in its last six against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per night. The Jazz play with revenge and they catch a complacent and dog-tired Rockets team flat footed on Monday night. Grab the points, play on Utah. Good luck…Larry |
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02-26-18 | Texas Tech +5.5 v. West Virginia | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 10 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Texas Tech (9:00 EST). Texas Tech will be eager to get back into the winners circle after a tough 74-72 loss to Kansas on Saturday. The Red Raiders are now out of contention to win the Big 12 Conference title, but they still have a lot to play for as they look to earn at least a No. 2 seed in the upcoming NCAA Tournament. Texas Tech has lost three straight, but it didn’t look horrible against the high-powered Jayhawks, hitting 42.9 percent from the floor and going 8 of 24 from range. Zhaire Smith led the way in that one off the bench with 20 points. WVU has won three of its last four, including a relatively simple 85-70 victory over Iowa State in its most recent. The Hawkeyes were ravaged from injury and didn’t put up a fight at all. While the Mountaineers looked decent from the floor overall with a 45.5 percent rate, note that they were a poor 5 of 18 from range. Esa Ahmad finished with 18 points and 11 boards in the victory. I’ll point out though that Texas Tech is 10-6 ATS this year against good offensive clubs which average 77-plus points per night, while WVU is just 4-5 ATS this season off a win against a conference rival (and only 1-3 ATS in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent.) The Red Raiders are hungry and desperate to turn their fortunes around and they catch a WVU side a little complacent after its latest “cake walk” in its previous win. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Texas Tech. Good luck…Larry |
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02-26-18 | Texas +9.5 v. Kansas | Top | 70-80 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Texas (9:00 EST). Kansas beat Texas Tech on Saturday, ensuring it at least a share of the Big 12 title for a 14th straight campaign. Suffice it to say, after accomplishing that very meaningful milestone, I expect the high-flying home side to have just enough of a mental letdown here, to let the hungry visiting team comfortably sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. The Longhorns beat Oklahoma State 65-64 on Saturday to keep their playoff hopes alive and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the team to carry that momentum over here. Dylan Osetkowski finished with a team-high 13 points, while Kerwin Roach and Jacob Young chipped in 12 points Kanas held on for the 74-72 road win at Texas Tech to grab a share of the title. Devonte Graham led the charge in that one with 26 points. I’ll point out though that Texas is 4-1 ATS in its last five against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per night, while Kansas is just 4-7 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival. It’s do or die essentially for the Longhorns, who will likely be without the services of big man Mo Bamba after he injured himself in their latest victory. No matter in my opinion, as I do definitely feel that the overall situation and trends both sharply point to Texas as the correct call in this matchup. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-26-18 | Magic +10.5 v. Thunder | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on the Orland Magic (8:05 EST). Orlando comes in hungry after five straight losses. The Magic won’t be in the postseason, but they’re not going to be going down without a fight this evening in my estimation. Most recently the Magic fell 116-105 to Philadelphia, getting 20 points, seven boards and seven assists from Aaron Gordon. Mario Hezonjia was also a bright spot with 13 points off the bench. Some claim that Orlando is now in “tank” mode, but I’m not completely buying it, as the Magic possess just the fifth spot in the “ping pong ball pecking order” for the Draft. Oklahoma comes in shocked and stunned after its 112-80 loss at Golden State. Paul George had an “off night,” going just 1of 14 for a season-low five points. Russell Westbrook though was a bright spot with 15 points, 12 boards and seven assists. I’ll point out though that Orlando has in fact done well in this spot all year for bettors, going 16-14 ATS on the road and it’s also 7-2 ATS in its last nine against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per night. OKC on the other hand has struggled mightily in this position all season by going just 12-17 ATS at home, only 3-6 ATS following a loss by ten point sir more and interestingly, a horrible 10-18 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per night. I think the home side gets caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent today to the start of its three game Western road trip in Dallas on Wednesday night. While I’m not going to call for the outright upset, all signs point to a very competitive battle. So grab the points! Good luck…Larry |
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02-26-18 | Flyers -119 v. Canadiens | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:35 EST). Philadelphia enters off a 5-3 road win over Ottawa and it’s now won five in a row and nine of its last ten. Montreal has struggled this season and it enters off a disheartening 4-3 home shootout loss to Tampa Bay. The Flyers come into this one averaging 3.02 GPG, while conceding 2.79. Goaltender Petr Mrazek, who stopped 25 of 28 in the win over the Senators, is now 10-10 with a 2.81 GAA, including 8-6 with a 2.71 GAA on the road. Philadelphia is in a dog fight with Pittsburgh and Washington for top spot in the East, with just a single game separating the teams. The Habs average 2.54 GPG and they concede 3.10. Goaltender Antti Niemi fell to 3-8 with a 3.76 GAA. Montreal is arguably the worst team in the league right now and after throwing everything it had against the Lightning in its latest setback, I think a predictable letdown is on deck here as well. Philadelphia though won’t be taking anything for granted as it tries to make up ground among the leaders in the East. All things considered, I feel this is a great price. Good luck…Larry |
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02-25-18 | 76ers v. Wizards -1.5 | Top | 94-109 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Washington Wizards (8:05 EST). I had a play on the Orlando Magic yesterday and they fell 116-105 at Philadelphia, failing to cover the spread by a single bucket. Suffice it to say, I believe the 76ers have a letdown here in the second game of the back to back. Conversely it’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the home side after falling 122-105 at home to Charlotte on Friday. Also note that this is a “revenge” game for the Wizards, as Philadelphia has taken two of the last three meetings this year, including a 115-112 victory at home in the most recent matchup on February 6th. The 76ers average 107.6 PPG and they concede 105.7 per night. Big man Joel Embiid leads the nightly charge with 23.8 points, 11.2 boards and 1.87 assists per night, while rookie Ben Simmons averages 16.7 points, 7.8 boards, 7.4 assists and 1.87 steals per night. The Wizards average 107.4 PPG and they concede 105.8. Bradley Beal currently leads the nightly charge with 23.7 points, while Otto Porter Jr. adds 14.5 points, 6.4 boards and 1.55 steals per night. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road, while Washington is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing on one days rest. Philadelphia was fortunate to win in Chicago on Thursday and I believe its road issues continue here. The Wizards are a deep and dangerous team at home and I like them to take advantage here. Play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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02-25-18 | Sharks v. Wild -145 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Minnesota Wild (8:05 EST). San Jose enters off a 3-1 road loss in Chicago, while Minnesota comes in off a 4-1 road win at New York. So far the Sharks average just 2.55 GPG, while allowing 2.62 on the road this season (just a 16-17 record away from friendly confines.) Goaltender Martin Jones is 19-21 with a 2.52 GAA this year, including 8-13 with a 2.56 GAA on the road. Note that he’s 2-5 with a 2.49 GAA lifetime against Minnesota. The Wild have gone 20-11 at home and have averaged 3.13 GPG there, while conceding just 2.16. Netminder Devan Dubnyk is 25-16 with a 2.57 GAA overall this year, including 15-8 with a 2.17 GAA at home. Additionally I’ll point out that San Jose is just 2-10 in its last 12 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Minnesota is 8-3 in its last 11 against a team with a winning record. The Sharks offense has stalled of late, scoring just two goals over its last two games. And that doesn’t bode well in my opinion facing a Wild team which has conceded just 2.16 GPG at home this season. Also note that the home team is 20-8 the last 28 in this series. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Great value, play on the Wild. Good luck…Larry |
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02-25-18 | Northwestern v. Iowa -3 | 70-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Iowa (7:30 EST). The 15-15 Northwestern Wildcats are at Iowa to take on the 12-18 Hawkeyes on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Northwestern has lost five straight, most recently to Wisconsin on Thursday. Scottie Lindsey was a bright spot in the losing cause with 26 points. Lindsey leads the nightly charge for the Wildcats with 14.7 PPG, while Bryant McIntosh adds 12.3 points a night. Iowa has lost five of its last six, most recently falling to Minnesota on Wednesday. Isaiah Moss would go on to put up 32 points in the setback. For the year it’s Jordan Bohannon who leads the way with 13.8 PPG. I’ll point out though that Northwestern is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the road, while Iowa is already 7-4 ATS this season when playing the role of favorite. Iowa has its issues, but Northwestern has failed to hit 65 points in any of its last eight games. Lay the points with confidence on the hungry home side. Play on the Hawkeyes. Good luck…Larry |
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02-25-18 | Wright State +1 v. Illinois-Chicago | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Wright State (6:00 EST). The 21-9 Wright State Raiders are at Illinois Chicago to take on the 17-13 Flames and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. If recent history is any precedence, then the Raiders have to be loving their chances today, because when these team met on December 28th, it was Wright State which pulled away for the 65-61 home win. The Raiders enter off a 65-56 loss at IUPUI and there’s no doubt that they’ll be looking to atone for that upset. The Flames also come in off a loss, falling 79-72 at home to Northern Kentucky on Friday. Wright State averages 71.5 PPG and it concedes 65.7. Grant Benzinger averages 14.5 points and five boards per game, while Loudon Love adds 12.4 points and 9.5 boards per night. UIC averages 74.9 PPG and it concedes 72. Dikembe Dickson averages 14 points and 3.5 boards per night, while Marcus Ottey contributes 13.5 points and 3.3 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Wright State is already a perfect 3-0 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival and 5-2 ATS as an underdog, while UIC is a poor 5-7 ATS at home and a horrible 1-4 ATS in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. This is a bad matchup for the Flames. I look for Wright State to indeed bounce back here and duplicate its earlier performance in the win over UIC. Play on the Raiders. Good luck…Larry |
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02-25-18 | Florida State +3 v. NC State | Top | 72-92 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Florida State (6:00 EST). FSU won its second straight in an 88-75 home win over Pittsburgh last weekend. NC State comes in having won three straight, most recently an 82-66 home victory over BC on Tuesday. The Seminoles average 83 PPG and they concede 73.4. FSU has had a week off after beating Pitt, getting 18 points from PJ Savoy in that one. The Wolfpack average 81 PPG and they concede 74. Allerik Freeman had 20 points and six boards in the win over the Eagles. I’ll point out though that Florida State has done extremely well in this spot for bettors of late, going 6-1 ATS this year against good offensive clubs which average 77-plus points per contest. Conversely, this is a position in which NC State has struggled in by going just 17-21 ATS in its last 38 against good offensive schools which average 77-plus points per night. Florida State is the deeper team and I’m expecting it to come in focused here. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Seminoles. Good luck…Larry |
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02-24-18 | Ducks -145 v. Coyotes | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* WEST-CONF GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Anaheim Ducks (8:00 EST). The 31-20 Anaheim Ducks are at Arizona to take on the 17-33 Coyotes on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. Anaheim comes in on top form as it’s won four straight, most recently getting the better of Dallas 2-0 on Wednesday. Goaltender Ryan Miller stopped 41 shots in the impressive performance: “We recognize where the season is at,” Miller assessed. “Our game has been pretty good. We had a couple tough outings on the road and then we kind of got it together. It’s been consistent for the last two weeks.” After winning four straight, the Coyotes came back down to Earth in a 5-2 setback to Calgary on Thursday. Derek Stepan was a bright in the losing cause with his 11th goal of the year. I’ll point out though that Anaheim is 11-5 in its last 16 against teams with losing records, while Arizona is only 9-22 at home this season and just 11-27 in its last 38 against the Pacific division. The Ducks come in firing on all cylinders across the board right now (note that they’ve killed off 19 of their last 20 penalties) and they’ve taken eight of the last nine in this series. No letdown here, as I fully expect Anaheim to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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