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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards UNDER 212 | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Hawks/Wizards (6:00 EST). Suffice it to say, it’s a big game. So far home floor has played a big part in this series, with each team taking both games on its own floor. Atlanta most recently pulled away for a 111-101 victory at home on Monday. The Hawks have been playing over their heads on the offensive end so far through the first four games, averaging 108.8 PPG. Atlanta only averaged 102.3 PPG in the regular season. Washington ranked in the top ten in scoring and the bottom third on the defensive end. Atlanta made adjustments on the defensive end in Game’s 3 and 4 and we’re expecting a duplicate game-plan here (note that Washington scored 223 points combined in the first two games and only 199 combined over the next two). I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a win by ten points or more, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three following a loss by ten points or more. I think these teams play an extremely aggressive game and I look for this total to sneak below the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5.5 | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 37 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizrds (6:00 EST). As I mentioned in my writeup on the “under” in the same game, this contest clearly means a lot to both teams. So far each team has dominated on its home floor, with Washington winning 114-107 and 109-101 and Atlanta prevailing 116-98 and 111-101. I think the home floor advantage trend continues in Game 5. The Hawks are averaging 108.8 PPG in the playoffs, which is over six points higher than their regular season average. Atlanta though is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Washington is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. Washington was one of the best shooting teams in the regular season and now that the series is back at the Verizon Center, I think the Wizards will rebound. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-17 | Royals -133 v. White Sox | 5-10 | Loss | -133 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Kansas City Royals (8:10 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakes are leading us to believe. The Royals hand the ball to their ace Danny Duffy (2-0, 1.32 ERA) who went eight scoreless, allowing four hits and three walks while striking out five, in an unfortunate no-decision against Texas on Thursday. Duffy has posted 11 K’s and has held his opposition scoreless over his last 14 innings of work. So far the southpaw has four straight quality starts and note that he was particularly effective in this spot last year going 5-3 with a 3.42 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Dylan Covey (0-1, 7.84), who was shelled for eight runs against the Yanks on Wednesday. After holding the Twins to one run in his MLB debut, Covey made an immediate regression. The book is still out on Covey, while Duffy enters on top form. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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04-25-17 | Thunder v. Rockets UNDER 223.5 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the under Thunder/Rockets (8:00 EST). These teams are very similar, in that they like to push the pace from start to finish, while defense often takes a “back seat.” The Rockets rallied for a 113-109 road win in Game 4 to take a 3-1 series lead last time out, the total staying below the posted number in that one. With a chance to send the Thunder packing, I’m expecting Houston to come out very aggressive on the defensive end tonight as it looks to slow down OKC superstar Russell Westbrook. The Thunder have to be kicking themselves, as they had a lead through three quarters in Game 4, but their defense fell apart in the final frame and allowed the Rockets to score 40 points. OKC would go on to shoot just 18 of 32 from the charity stripe as well. Despite the victory, note that Houston wasn’t all that effecient offensively in Game 4, connecting on 43.5 percent from the floor, including only 11 of 35 from range. I’ll point out as well that OKC has seen the total go under the posted number in eight of 14 this year off an upset loss as a favorite and in 21 of 32 when playing the role of underdog, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after scoring 110 points or more. I think this is going to be a very rough game, which will lead to a slightly slower pace. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-17 | Warriors -6.5 v. Blazers | Top | 128-103 | Win | 100 | 36 h 49 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Golden State Warriors (10:30 EST). Head coach Steve Kerr won’t be on the sidelines, but with a chance to end the series tonight, I look for the high-powered Warriors to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Portland is in a 3-0 hole and I think it’ll fold up its tents early in this one. Golden State averages 115.9 PPG this year, while the defense concedes only 104.3. Portland averages 107.9 PPG, but allows 108.5. Golden State is just too deep, too skilled defensively and too experienced overall for Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to overcome themselves. I’ll point out that Golden State is 6-0 ATS in its last six away from friendly confines and 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest, while Portland is just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 in this series in front of the home town crowd. Portland’s only hope was Game 3. Look for the Golden State to deliver the knock out blow, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-17 | Dodgers v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the over Dodgers/Giants (10:15 EST). I think we’re going to see some offensive fireworks in the opener between these bitter rivals. The visitors hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (0-3, 5.87 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off seven hits and one walk across six innings in a loss to Colorado on Tuesday. So far Ryu has given up six dingers through just 15.1 innings of work. Ryu will be opposed by veteran Matt Cain (1-0, 3.31) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out three over seven innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Tuesday. I’m going to caution in reading too much into one decent outing though. Note that it was just Cain’s first quality start of the season. And if we dig a little deeper, we see that Cain is probably getting the job done right now with “smoke and mirrors, as his 12:8 K/W ratio in just 16.1 innings and career-low 89.4 MPH fastball point to what will likely be a rocky rest of the season. And note that Cain was bad at home last year, going 3-5 with a 5.55 ERA and was even worse in all “night” games, going 2-5 with a 6.13 ERA. I’ll also point out that LA has already seen the total go over the number in two of three this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while San Francisco has seen the total fly above the posted number in four of six against left-handed starters this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-17 | Wizards +2.5 v. Hawks | 101-111 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). Washington took the first two games at home, but stumbled in Game 3’s 116-98 setback in Atlanta on Saturday. Suffice it to say, I like the Wizards to bounce back here and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. John Wall was a standout in the loss for Washington, finishing with 29 points and seven assists. Washington has to be feeling confident, it shot 37 percent from range in the regular season and averaged 109.2 PPG, ranked fifth overall. The defense was the weak point, but the Hawks only average 103.2 PPG, ranked 22nd overall. This is a spot in which the Wizards have excelled in all year as well, going 5-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss of ten points or more, while note that the Hawks have struggled in this position by going a poor 1-8 ATS in their last nine following a straight up victory over ten or more points. Wall’s teammate Bradley Beal had an “off” night in Game 3, but it’s hard to imagine the talented guard being held down twice. I have a hard time seeing Atlanta duplicating its 49 percent shooting performance as well. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-24-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 192 | 93-118 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Bucks/Raptors (7:00 EST). These teams are all tied at two apiece as the series shifts back to Toronto in what has now become the best of three. So far the Over/Under is 1-3. I think finally though we’re going to see these teams post some prorduction as I look for this total to eclipse the lower number as it comes down the stretch. So far these are the two lowest scoring teams in the playoffs. Milwaukee wasn’t a high-scoring team in the regular season either, finishing in the bottom third in scoring. Toronto though finished in the top 5. It won’t take much offense to push this one over this low number though. And note, this is a spot in which the Bucks have in fact been involved in some higher-scoring affairs, as Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in 14 of 22 this season after a loss by ten points or more and in eight of 13 off an upset loss as a favorite. And note that Toronto has seen the total go over the number in 15 of 26 this season following a win by ten points or more and in three of its last four after allowing 90 points or less. All signs finally point to a more wide open affair, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-17 | Clippers +2.5 v. Jazz | Top | 98-105 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Clippers (9:00 EST). Blake Griffin is out, but I think the Clippers are still the deeper, more skilled, more experienced and better coached team. Griffin was out in Game 2, but veteran point guard Chris Paul took over, leading a 15-0 fourth quarter run, en route to the 114-106 Game 3 victory: “He has an amazing will,” Clippers’ head coach Doc Rivers assessed afterwards. “He’s just a tough guy. He’s stubborn in a very, very positive way. All the great ones have that in them. They’re stubborn like they aren’t going to lose.” Paul went on to finish with 34 points, ten assists and seven boards, while DeAndre Jordan added 17. Gordon Hayward was once again the focal point for Utah, he’d play 42 minutes and pour in 40 points. George Hill also showed up with 26 points. Of course, big man Rudy Gobert missed Game 3 and is listed as doubtful for Game 4 as well. For arguments sake, lets call Gobert and Griffin a “wash.” When looking at the remaining pieces, in my professional opinion, LA has still has several advantages. And I’ll point out that the Clippers are 3-1 ATS in thier last four after scoring 113 points or more, whle Utah is just 16-20 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Grab as many points as you can, play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-17 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs +135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST). I played on Toronto as a +195 underdog in Game 5. Washington would go to win 2-1 in OT. It’s the biggest game of the year for both teams, but I think home ice will prove to be a difference maker tonight. I look for the explosive Leafs to find a way to get the job done and push this one back to the nation’s capital for a decisive Game 7. Note that the home team has won 13 of the last 18 between these teams. The Capitals simply have no discernible advantage over the Leafs whatsoever. Except experience. There’s no doubt that experience counts in these types of situations, but I still think that the home ice advantage trumps that factor. Otherwise, these teams are very even. Washington had the better defense in the regular season, but the Leafs haven’t had any issues scoring. The goaltending is also a “wash.” I’ll point out though that Washignton is just 4-8 (-8.4 units) in its last 12 when leading in a playoff series. The value is too good to turn down, play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-17 | Celtics v. Bulls UNDER 204 | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LEGEND is the under Celtics/Bulls (6:30 EST). Boston struggled in Games 1 and 2, but got back on track in Chicago with a big 104-87 Game 3 victory. Al Horford scored 18 points and grabbed eight boards in the win. Isaiah Thomas is stlll trying to regain his focus after getting blind-sided with his sisters death just before the series started, he’d finish with 16 (note though that he did have nine assists). Four players would go on to score at least 15 points. Chicago dominated on the offensive end in Boston, but was held to just 39 percent from the floor in Game 3, including only 6 of 21 from range. Dwayne Wade was a standout with 18 points. Jimmy Butler was swarmed, finishing just 7 for 21 for 14 points and zero assists. I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last nine when trailing in a playoff series and in five of six this year after allowing 90 points or less, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of 14 this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. I think this series has been somewhat civil to this point. But tempers are going to continue to flare. I believe both teams will put a huge emphasis on the defensive end. The under is 4-0 in the last four meetings in Chicago between these two clubs and all signs point to another low-scoring affair. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-23-17 | Tigers -109 v. Twins | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Tigers (2:10 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Fulmer (1-1, 3.00 ERA), who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks with five K’s in a loss to the Rays on Tuesday. So far he’s opened the season with three straight quality outings. Fulmer dominated in this spot a year ago, going 5-0 with a tiny 1.78 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with the volatile Kyle Gibson (0-2, 6.91), who most recently gave up three runs off eight hits while walking two and striking out two over 5.1 innings in a 3-1 loss to the Tribe on Monday. So far he holds a poor 9:5 K/BB ratio after three starts. Note that Gibson was a poor 2-4, 4.47 ERA in all “day” games last season and an even worse 1-8 with a ballooned 5.21 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I love Fulmer in this matchup and I think the Tigers can build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price here. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Warriors v. Blazers UNDER 217 | Top | 119-113 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Warriors/Blazers (10:30 EST). Golden State has a commanding 2-0 lead in this Western Conference Quarterfinal after pulling away for a 110-81 victory over the Blazers. All star Kevin Durant did not even suit up for that one. He’s listed as questionable for tonight. Draymond Green was dominant in the Game 2 victory though, finishing with six points, 12 boards and ten assists. It’s do-or-die for the Blazers essentially as a 3-0 hole would clearly be too much for the team to overcome. So far Portland has struggled with offense, as Golden State has turned up the pressure and not allowed any free looks for it shooters. I think we can expect an identical game plan from Steve Kerr tonight as well. Note that Damian Lillard was held to just 12 points, including 0 of 4 from behind the arc in the Game 2 defeat. Note that in four of their last five when playing on two days rest, the Warriors have seen the total dip below the posted number. Then there’s the Durant issue as well? All signs point to this one sneaking under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Blue Jays v. Angels OVER 9 | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the over Jays/Angels (9:05 EST). These teams exploded for 15 runs in Toronto’s 8-7 extra innings victory in Game 1 of this four game series and suffice it to say, I think all signs once again point to a “slug-fest.” Casey Lawrence (0-1, 13.50 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he’s been recalled from Triple-A Buffalo after posting a 1.80 ERA and seven K’s over five innings of work. Note though that he hasn’t worked more than three innings this year, so he’s not even expected to work more than five tonight. If he can even make it that far. The home side counters with the volatile Tyler Skaggs (0-1, 5.19) who comes off his first decent performance of the year, going seven scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision in what turned out to be a 1-0 loss to the Royals on Sunday. I’ll caution in reading too much into that performance though, as the southpaw has allowed five earned runs in each of his first two starts. Also note that Skaggs struggled in this spot last year, going only 2-4 with a balllooned 5.40 ERA in all “night” games. With these two confirmed “gas cans” going head-to-head, the over is the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -103 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 26 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 EST). “Recent performance” is often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess starting pitching and in this case, there’s no question that Robbie Ray has the upper-hand in this matchup. The visitors turn to the volatile Kenta Maeda (1-1, 7.07 ERA) who most recently was shelled for four runs off four hits over four innings to these very Diamondbacks last week, fortunate to earn a no-decision. Maeda is struggling in all facets and has yet to make it out of the fifth inning in any of his first three outings. The home side counters with Robbie Ray (1-0, 1.96) who gave up two runs (one earned) off three hits while striking out ten over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Dodgers on Monday. So far Ray has 24 K’s over 18.1 innings spanning three starts. And in that span the southpaw has allowed just four runs. Ray is the call here, tremendous value. I like Arizona to build off yesterday’s dominant 13-5 victory with a similar type performance tonight. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies OVER 187.5 | 108-110 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Spurs/Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The Spurs are 2-1 in this series, taking the first two at home and dropping Game 3 in Memphis 105-94. Kawhi Leonard was dominant in the two victories in San Antonio, but was held to just 18 points last time out. Memphis predicates itself on its tough defensive play and it was front and center in Game 3. It will be tough though in my opinion to duplicate that performance against this deep and experienced Spurs side. Regardless, the Grizzlies did look a lot better on the offensive end after struggling at times in the first two games. Zach Randolph had 21 points and eight boards. And I’ll point out that San Antonio has seen the total go over the number in 13 of 20 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Memphis has seen the total eclispe the posted number in three of its last four off an upset win as an underdog. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Astros v. Rays +101 | 3-6 | Win | 101 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST). I think this is a matchup which favors the home side. The visitors turn to veteran Charlie Morton (1-1, 2.81 ERA), who gave up five hits while walking two and striking out three over five scoreless innings in a 3-0 win over LA on Monday. Morton has looked decent early, but I’m not ready to crown him quite yet. Note that in 2015 (his last full season in the big leagues), he was just 3-5 with a poor 5.70 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Blake Snell (0-2, 2.76), who gave up four runs (just one earned) off seven hits while striking out five in a loss to Boston on Monday. So for the sophomore has 13 K’s over his 16.1 innings of work. Note that Snell was particularly effective at home last year, going 5-4 with a 3.04 ERA. I think Snell is the correct call here as I look for the Rays to bounce back in front of the home town crowd after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Yankees -104 v. Pirates | Top | 11-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST). After getting clobbered 6-3 yesterday, I like the “Evil Empire” to find a way to get the job done tonight. Michael Pineda (2-1, 3.44 ERA) gets nod for the visitors, he most recently gave up two runs off six hits while also striking out six over seven innings in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Pineda laboured through his first start of the year, but has posted back-to-back gems, tallying 17 K’s through 14.2 innings of work, while only conceding three in that span. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (1-0, 0.90), who gave up one unearned run off seven hits over seven innings of work in his last outing. Taillon has been dominant, but if he had one weakness in his rookie season, it was his play in all “night” games, going just 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.49 ERA. Taillon finally has a letdown here. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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04-22-17 | Raptors v. Bucks OVER 195 | 87-76 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 44 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Raptors/Brewers (3:00 EST). Toronto is turning out to be the “Jekyll and Hyde” team of the 2017 playoffs, as you just don’t know what you’ll get from it from game to game. MIlwaukee can smell the blood in the water and will be looking to build off its Game 3 victory and take a 3-1 strangle hold in this Eastern Conference Quarterfinal. I’m expecting Toronto to push the pace from start to finish as it looks to re-assert itself and take the defensive minded Bucks out of their comfort zone. The Raptors couldn’t get anything going in Game 3, falling behind 32-12 in the first quarter. Toronto finished as one of the Top 5 offenses in the league, averaging over 107 PPG, but so far Toronto has been dead last in the playoffs in averaging only 88.7. As good as Milwaukee has been defensively, I think the Raptors finally break out tonight. And I’ll point out that the Raptors have seen the total go over the number in six of their last ten when trailing in a playoff series and in four of their last five in revenging a loss against an opponent, while the Bucks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of eight this year after allowing 85 points or less. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-17 | Clippers +1 v. Jazz | Top | 111-106 | Win | 100 | 60 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the LA Clippers (10:00 EST). These teams are 1-1 so far in this series and depending on when/where you played it, they’re also 1-1 ATS. Utah stole Game 1 97-95, while LA bounced back with a 99-91 win in Game 2. LA held an 18-0 advantage with points in the paint in the first quarter and used that strategy throughout the game, as Utah struggled with the loss of big man Rudy Gobert. The Clippers shot 52.4 percent from the floor and held a 39-33 edge on the boards. Blake Griffin had 24 points, while Chris Paul added 21 points and ten boards. Gobert has once again been ruled out for Game 3. The Jazz managed go go 17 of 22 from the free throw line in Game 2, the only factor that kept the game as close as it was. Gordon Hayward was a lone bright spot with 20 points in the setback. I’ll point out that LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing on two days rest, while Utah is only 1-3 ATS in its last four in the same position. I think the extended absence of Gobert comes back to haunt the Jazz again tonight, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-17 | Cardinals -105 v. Brewers | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:10 EST). After falling 7-5 yesterday, I like St. Louis to bounce back on Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (0-3, 7.24 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Yankees on Sunday. Clearly Wainwright is struggling. He’s also coming off his worst year ever as a pro. Note that he was 10-5 with a 4.03 ERA in all night games last season. The home side counters with Wily Peralta (3-0, 2.65) who gave up two runs off three hits and three walks over six innings in a victory over the Reds on Sunday. Peralta has so far looked pretty good, but I’ll caution in reading too much into his decent start, as note that he was just 2-6 with a 4.39 ERA a year ago. I’m not writing off Wainwright yet and I think Peralta is playing above his head right now. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-17 | Indians v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Indians/White Sox (8:10 EST). Two starters which have dominated for years have each gotten out to a rocky beginning in 2017 and in my professional opinion, I look for their early struggles to continue here and expect this total to blast past the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Corey Kluber (1-1, 6.38 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he earned a win over the Tigers on Saturday despite getting shelled for six runs off eight hits with two walks over 6.1 innings. Kluber has now allowed at least five runs in two of his three starts. The home side counters with Jose Quintana (0-3, 6.75) who was rocked for five runs off nine hits and five walks over 5.2 innings in a 6-0 loss to the Twins on Saturday. It was the second time in three outings that he’s been crushed. I expect these talented line-ups to post some production tonight, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-17 | Maple Leafs +181 v. Capitals | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:35 EST). This has been an incredibly competitive series, one which has featured a ton of offense. It’s the best of three now and while it would seem that the Capitals would have the upperhand, I think that the Leafs offer tremendous value in this spot. Toronto has already won in Washington and with a chance to go home with a 3-2 lead, I think the Leafs find a way to get the job done tonight. Goaltending so far in this series hasn’t been great, so I’m going to call Frederick Andersen and Braden Holtby a “wash.” The Capitals featured the stronger overall defense in the regular season, but that’s not been a factor whatsoever in this series. The Leafs’ possess an offense capable of scoring with the best of them and it hasn’t been slowed down whatsoever. I’ll point out that Toronto is 16-9 (+6.6 units) after allowing four goals or more, while Washington is interestingly, 8-9 (-7 units) after allowing four goals or more. In my estimation, the Capitals do not have a big advantage in this game. And that means that the value swings to the hungry dog. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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04-21-17 | Nationals v. Mets OVER 7 | 4-3 | Push | 0 | 3 h 56 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Nationals/Mets (7:10 EST). A couple of competent starters go head-to-head on Friday night, but I still think this number is just a little low. The visitors turn to Tanner Roark (2-0, 3.50 ERA) who most recently allowed two runs off four this while stirking out three over seven frames in an eventual 4-2 no-decision loss to the Phillies on Saturday. He was also 2 for 2 at the plate. Roark has looked solid this year, but if he had one weakness last season, it was whenever he pitched in “night” games, finishing a pedestrian 8-8 with a 3.64 ERA. The home side counters with Jacob DeGrom (0-0, 1.89) who gave up two runs off four hits while striking out 13 over seven innings in what would turn out to be a no-decision in Saturday’s 5-4 loss to the Marlins. Like Roark, DeGrom has so far been the victim of poor run support this season. However, I also point out that just like Roark, DeGrom struggled in all “night” games last season, going 2-7 with a poor 4.01 ERA. I’ll also point out that Washington has seen the total go over the number in five of six “night” games this year, while New York has seen the total go over in nine of 12 in the same position. As mentioned off the top, this total is just a little low, play the over. NOTE: Matt Harvey now gets the call for the Mets. This play is definitely still active! Harvey has been decent, going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA to start, but note that he struggled in this spot last year going a horrible 2-4 with a 5.59 ERA at home. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Sharks +118 v. Oilers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 3 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Jose Sharks (10:35 EST). This series is all tied up at two. San Jose smashed the Oilers 7-0 in Game 4 though and I think the Oilers come in flat-footed and “shell shocked” after that humbling beatdown. Conversely, I’m expecting San Jose to build off its latest confidence building victory and to find a way to get the job done tonight as well. Martin Jones stopped all 23 shots last time out and he’s now 2-2 with a 1.24 GAA in the postseason. He’s also now 16-12 with a 1.97 GAA lifetime in the playoffs. Cam Talbot took the loss for Edmonton, he’s now 2-2 with a 2.22 GAA in this series and 2-3 with a 2.29 GAA lifetime in the postseason. I’ll point out though that San Jose is 6-3 (+3.8 units) in its last nine in the first round of the playoffs, while Edmonton is just 19-20 (-4.8 units) this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think experience counts at this point of a series. The line value is simply too good to turn down here, play on San Jose. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Spurs -3 v. Grizzlies | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:30 EST). The Grizzlies showed some life in Game 1, but were clobbered in Game 2, 96-82. San Antonio’s depth is once again proving to be just too much for Memphis to handle and I believe nothing will change in Game 3. The Spurs have to be feeling pretty confident as they’ve now won 16 of the last 20 in this series. Keep your eyes on San Antonio star Kawhi Leonard, who had a career playoff-high 37 points in the Game 2 win. Veteran point guard Tony Parker contributed 15 points as well. Mike Conley was a standout for the Grizzlies in Game 2, finishing with 24 points. Tony Allen missed Monday’s game with a calf issue and is questionable for tonight as well (note that he’s averaging just 9.1 PPG this year). I think a 4-0 sweep is very possible in this series. I believe the Spurs win big again in Game 3, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Bucks | 77-104 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 46 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (8:00 EST). These teams are tied at one game a piece as their Eastern Conference series shifts to Milwaukee. Toronto though is 0-2 ATS at this point. Suffice it to say, I think the road will work well for the Raptors, who can escape the media frenzy North of the border and concentrate completely on themselves. The Bucks have put up a hell of a fight to this point, but I think the Raptors’ depth will prove to be the difference maker. In Game 3 anyways. Toronto averages 106.9 PPG and concedes 102.6. Milwaukee averages 103.6 PPG and concedes 103.8. And I’ll point out that the Raptors are 6-1 ATS in thier last seven on the road and 5-1 ATS in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Bucks are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and a horrible 1-7 ATS in their last eight after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game. Experience at this time of the year is invaluable. DeMar DeRozan and Kyle Lowry both looked a lot better in Game 2 and I believe that momentum gets carried over here. Play on Toronto. Good luck…larry |
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04-20-17 | Blackhawks +115 v. Predators | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Blackhawks (8:05 EST). There’s no need to overthink this one in my opinion. I’ve played the Predators twice over the first three games of this Western Conference quarterfinals. Many could not possibly have predicted that the Hawks would be in a 3-0 hole at this point. With their backs against the wall though, I expect the Blackhawks to respond as they desperately fight to stay alive and at the very least, avoid the embarrassing sweep. Chicago finished as the No. 1 seed in the West with 109 points. It also won four of five in the regular season against Nashville. So far Pekka Rinne has by far been the better goaltender in this series, as Corey Crawford has struggled for the most part. However, I’ll point out that Chicago has responded extremely well in this spot all year for bettors, going 4-1 in its last five on two days rest, while Nashville has struggled big time, going 2-7 (-6.8 units) this season following a three game unbeaten streak. This one is heading back to the Windy City, play on the Hawks. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Rangers v. Canadiens OVER 4.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 32 h 14 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Rangers/Habs (7:05 EST). So far the Over/Under is 1-3 in this series. At 4.5, this is the lowest total so far in the playoffs and in my opinion, it’s too low. The most common finishing number in the NHL is 5. With this series knotted at two games apiece, I’m finally expecting a much more wide open affair in Game 5. New York is actually better on the road than at home, finishing 28-15 away from friendly confines. The Habs finished 25-18 in Montreal and will be looking to avenge the Game 4 setback. These goaltenders are a “wash.” Both Henrik Lundqvist and Carey Price have a ton of playoff experience and each has the capability to completely take over a game. All of that said though, I’ll point out that the Rangers have in fact seen the total go over the number in five of eight road games this year where the total is set at 5 or less, while Montreal has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 19 of 31 this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, I’m expecting a higher-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Cavs -2 v. Pacers | 119-114 | Win | 100 | 33 h 32 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:00 EST). I’ve bet against the Cavaliers in each of the first two games of this Eastern Conference Quarterfinals. Cleveland is 2-0 SU and 0-2 ATS. With a chance to take a strangle-hold on this series, I’m expecting Cleveland to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and look for it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable win and cover. The Pacers are wearing down and they had no answers for the Cavs in Game 2 as Cleveland would go on to shoot a sizzling 55.3 percent from the floor. The Cavs will be looking for a better defensive performance themselves after allowing the Pacers to hit 51.2 percent. Keep your eyes on guard Kyrie Irving, who appears to be heating up at the most opportune of times, he had 37 points on 14 of 24 shooting in Game 2. Also note that Kevin Love, LeBron James and Tristan Thompson combined for 31 rebounds. Paul George continues to carry the Pacers and he did his best last time out, finishing with 32 points, eight boards and seven assists. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 when leading in a playoff series, while Indiana is interestingly just 14-18 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per contest. I think the Cavs fight hard on the road and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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04-20-17 | Red Sox -137 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Boston Red Sox (12:35 EST). No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as I expect Red Sox’ ace Chris Sale to easily outduel his suspect counterpart. Sale (1-1, 1.25 ERA) comes in off a tough luck loss to Detroit on Monday, going eight innings and giving up two runs off five hits and one walk to go along with ten K’s. So far Sale owns a “lights out” 17:2 K:BB ratio over 14.2 innings of work. Amazingly, Sale has received just one run of support this year. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to end in a big way this afternoon. The home side counters with Marco Estrada (0-1, 3.50) who gave up four hits and three walks over seven scoreless innings in a win over Baltimore on Saturday. Estrada struggled to open the season, so I’m not going to read too much into one decent outing. Note that he was a pedestrian 3-7 with a 3.57 ERA at home last year. Estrada has been excellent for the Jays, but Sale is in an entirely different class of his own. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-17 | Blazers +15.5 v. Warriors | Top | 81-110 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST). Portland got 41 points from CJ McCollum and 34 from Damian Lillard, but it still wasn’t enough in the 121-109 Game 1 loss to the Warriors. I’m not going to predict an outright upset here or anything, but I do think that the Blazers can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Game 1 was actually tied entering the fourth quarter, but an early 9-2 run by the Warriors would spell the end for Portland’s chances. It wasn’t a perfect game for Golden State by any sense though, as the Warriors did go on to concede 19 points off 16 turnovers. And I’ll point out that Portland is 8-1 ATS in its last nine after scoring 100 points or more in its previous game and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Golden State is 4-12-2 ATS in its last 18 when playing on two days rest. I think Golden State takes the foot off the gas tonight and I expect the desperate visitors to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Portland. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-17 | Diamondbacks -127 v. Padres | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -127 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch, both on the mound and at the plate, than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (1-1, 4.32 ERA), who gave up five runs off ten hits over five innings against the Dodgers on Friday. Greinke has faced his former team four times since signing with Arizona and he’s been crushed in each instance. But with that awkward outing behind him, Greinke will look to return to form against the soft-hitting Padres. Note that he was 8-2 with a respectable 3.94 ERA on the road last season. The visitors counter with confirmed “gas can” Jhoulys Chacin (1-2, 7.80) who was blasted for four runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to Atlanta on Friday. I’ll point out that Arizona is already 6-3 (+4.4 units) this year against right-handed starters, while San Diego is just 3-6 (-1.5 units) in the same position. Greinke and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks offer great value in this spot. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-17 | Tigers +156 v. Rays | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 10 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). After falling 5-1 yesterday, I think the Tigers have a lot more than just a “puchers chance” in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmerman (1-1, 5.06 ERA) who looked great in his first start, but who struggled in his most recent, giving up five runs off four hits to go along with five walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to Minnesota on Thursday. That was in stark contrast to his season debut in which he allowed just one run over six innings. Zimmerman has all the tools in place to return to form and note that he was in fact very effective in this spot last year, going 4-2 with a tiny 2.63 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Chris Archer (2-0, 2.21), who struck out five and gave up one earned run over 5.2 innings in a 10-5 win over Boston on Friday. I’ll point out though that Detroit is already 3-2 (+2.2 units) this year on the road, while Tampa Bay is only 1-3 (-2.1 units) in its last four after holding its opponent to one or no runs in its previous outing. I think the line value is simply too good to turn down here. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays -105 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). The Red Sox took the opener of this series 7-6 last night. Boston is 9-5 overall on the year, while Toronto is just 2-11. Both of today’s starters have struggled with consistency this season. Rick Porcello was the Cy Young award winner last year, which was a complete shock as up until 2016 he’d never shown dominance like that before. Porcello though has struggled this season, just 1-1 with a 7.56 ERA, most recently getting shelled for eight runs off eight hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a 10-2 loss to the Rays. The Jays Francisco Liriano hasn’t been any better, so far he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA. However, Liriano looked under control in his last start, giving up two runs off five hits and two walks while stirking out ten over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate 2-1 loss to Baltimore on Thursday. Toronto may be without slugger Josh Donaldson, but I don’t think it will matter. The Jays are a desperate team. I also think that Liriano has the advantage on the mound. Looks like a good spot to pull the trigger on this hungry and underachieving home side. Play on the Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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04-19-17 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs +130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST). With a chance to take a 3-1 stranglehold on this series, I think the upstart Leafs find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Washington barely won Game 1, 3-2 in OT. Toronto then bounced back with a 4-3 win in OT in Game 2 and a 4-3 double OT win in Game 3. Washington was supposed to have the advantage between the pipes in this series, but Toronto’s Frederik Andersen has arguably been better than the Capitals’ Braden Holtby. Hotlby has so far allowed ten goals over the first three games. Andersen has conceded nine. Keep your eyes on Leafs player Tyler Bozak, who would deliver the OT winner on the power play for the winner in Game 3 (his first of the series). I’ll point out that Washington is a horrible 7-9 (-8 units) this season after allowing four goals or more, while Toronto is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three after allowing three or more goals. Does this one mean more to Washington that it does to Toronto? Of course not. So far the Capitals have been a big disappointment and I think they’re ripe for the picking here as well. The line value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the Leafs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-17 | Jazz v. Clippers -8 | Top | 91-99 | Push | 0 | 36 h 28 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Clippers (10:30 EST). I had a play on the Jazz in Game 1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the Clippers to risk life and limb in Game 2 to secure a victory and expect the Jazz to fold up their tents early and be completely content with the split before heading home. Utah played great defensively and got a buzzer beating 3-pointer from Joe Johnson to seal the 97-95 victory in Game 1. The Jazz were the No. 1 defensive team in the league in conceding only 96.8 PPG, but they were ranked 28th overall on the offensive end in averaging 100.7. This is do-or-die essentially for the Clippers, as an 0-2 hole heading back to Utah would likely be too big of a climb to get out of. LA has to be feeling confident though, it averaged 108.7 PPG and conceded 104.4 in the regular season. I’ll point out that Utah is just 4-6 ATS this year when playing with two days rest and only 7-10 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories, while LA is 7-5 ATS this season in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 6-4 ATS in its last ten against good defensive clubs with allow only 98 plus points per contest. Jazz center Rudy Gobert was injured in the first few minutes of Game 1 and basically didn’t even play and somehow Utah still managed the dominant victory. Gobert is listed as doubtful this evening as well. I think this will have an impact on the visitors. For all the reasons listed above, I’m laying the points and expecting a blowout. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-17 | Giants v. Royals -123 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -123 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). Matt Cain (1-0, 4.82 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors, he gave up one run off five hits and three walks over five innings in a win over the Diamondbacks on Wednesday. Cain struggled in this spot last year though, going just 1-3 with a 5.81 ERA on the road and only 2-5 with a 6.13 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Jason Hammel (0-1, 6.52), who gave up four runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to the A’s on Wednesday. Hammel was 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA last year, which included going 10-2 with a 2.42 ERA in all “home” games and 11-5 with a 3.53 ERA in all “night” contests. I’ll point out though that San Francisco is just 2-7 (-7.6 units) this year against right-handed starters, while KC is 4-1 (+3.8 units) after a victory. I like Hammel to bounce back and expect Cain to struggle in this interleague tilt. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price. Play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-17 | Bulls +6 v. Celtics | 111-97 | Win | 100 | 34 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bulls (8:00 EST). I played Chicago in Game 1 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the visitors to at the very least, take this one down to the wire and keep it competitive until the final moments. I based my Game 1 selection primarily on the issues that Celtics star’ Isaiah Thomas was dealing with as the night before Game 1 his sister was killed in a car crash. Thomas is expected to play again tonight, but I still think that he’ll struggle to keep his head in the game. Boston is a deep team, but without a 100% focused Thomas, it’s going to be very difficult for it to succeed. Besides, the Bulls looked pretty dominant in Game 1, including winning the rebounding battle 53-36, with 20 of those boards coming on the offensive glass. Chicago also was 20 of 23 from the charity stripe, while limiting the C’s to just 43 percent from the floor overall. Chicago won’t be rolling over here obviously. All signs point to a nail-biter, so grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-17 | Bucks v. Raptors OVER 192.5 | 100-106 | Win | 100 | 33 h 49 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Bucks/Raptors (7:00 EST). Milwaukee pulled away for a 97-83 win in Game 1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to come out fired up tonight and to push the pace from start to finish. The Bucks are going to have to match pace if they have any shot at pulling off another upset. A faster paced game usually translates into a higher-scoring affair and that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. Giannis Antetokounmpo finished with 28 points plus eight rebounds in the Game 1 win to lead Milwaukee. The Bucks were 12 of 15 from the line, compared to 24 of 33 for the Raptors. This is basically a “must-win” game for Toronto now. The Raptors though have to be feeling pretty confident as they’d won 13 of the previous 15 regular season contests against Milwaukee. Toronto was one of the highest scoring team’s in the league and I’m fully expecting a return to the norm this evening. I’ll point out that Milwaukee has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 this season off an upset win as an underdog, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of 13 this year when playing on two days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the OVER. Good luck…Larry |
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04-18-17 | Canadiens v. Rangers -105 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST). I’ve played the Rangers in each of the first three games and am 1-2. I believe the Blue Shirts will risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes in Game 4 though and look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. New York has lost six straight playoff games at home, but I think it’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. So far the goaltenders have been pretty even in this matchup (Carey Price for the Habs and Henrik Lundqvist for the Rangers), so I’m calling that area a “wash.” However I’ll point out that Montreal is just 11-13 (-6.1 units) this year after a win by two goals or more, while New York is 14-4 (11.1 units) this season in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. It’s essentially do-or-die for the home side. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on this one, play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Ducks v. Flames -120 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 13 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Calgary Flames (10:05 EST). Calgary is down 0-2 and will be risking life and limb to try and avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. The Flames were extremely competitive against the Ducks in the first two games, but simply couldn’t get the job done. I’ll point out though that the home team is 52-15 in the last 67 between these clubs. John Gibson gets the nod in net for the visitors and he’s 4-4 with a 2.61 GAA in the postseason. That doesn’t bode well in my opinion, as the Ducks were just 17-24 on the road this year. Brian Elliot gets the nod for the home side and he went 15-8 with a 2.25 GAA in Calgary this season. Also note that the Flames are 21-7 in their last 28 after scoring two goals or less in their previous game. I think the shift in venue has a big impact in this series and look for the Flames to come away with a convincing victory in Game 3. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -10.5 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:30 EST). I played on San Antonio in Game 1 and I think it will once again lay the hammer down in Game 2. Home court is going to be important in this series I think from an “Against The Spread” angle anyways. Memphis got off to a good opening quarter in Game 1, but the Spurs were able to reign in the Grizzlies and then pull away before the half. Memphis shot just 39 percent from the floor, including only 7 of 20 from range. Marc Gasol was a standout with 32 points on 11 of 18 shooting. Memphis averages only 100.5 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end in conceding only 100.5 That vaunted defense looked pretty mediocre against the Spurs though, who would go on to shoot a blistering 53 percent from the floor. Kawhi Leonard led the charge for San Antonio with 31 points. Leonard played smothering defense all season and the Spurs would go on to allow just 98.1 PPG. I’ll point out that Memphis is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while the Spurs are 2-1 ATS in their last three following an ATS victory. I think the Grizzlies have no answer for the Spurs on either end of the court and while I do believe Memphis will look a lot better on its home floor, all signs point to another blowout this evening. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Blackhawks v. Predators -115 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nashville Predators (9:35 EST). Nashville has dominated this series and can smell the blood in the water. The Blackhawks will be desperate tonight, but I think that home ice advantage will prove to be the difference maker once it’s all said and done. Not only is Chicago 0-2, but it’s also failed to even find the back of the next just once over the first two games. The Blackhawks had a top ten scoring offense this year, but the Predators have absolutely domianted them in every facet. Goaltender Corey Crawford has plenty of amazing stats, but he’s been pretty ordinary against Nashville throughout his career, going a pedestrian 15-14 with a 2.57 GAA. Predators’ goalie Pekka Rinne has been dominant thus far. He’s 3-2 with a 1.69 GAA in his career against the Hawks after posting the back-to-back “goose eggs.” I’m not expecting another shutout, but I do believe Nashville will once again play with more heart and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Predators. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Indians -145 v. Twins | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (8:10 EST). Both teams are struggling with offensive consistency to open the season, but I think that Danny Salazar has a bigger advantage on the mound tonight than what the bookmakers are leading us to beileve. Minnesota comes in off a 3-1, 10-inning loss to the White Sox, while Cleveland dropped two of three at home over the weekend, including a 4-1 setback to Detroit on Sunday. The Tribe have struggled with southpaws this year, so they’ll be happy to head to Minnesota, which features four righties in this series. Kyle Gibson (0-1, 8.00 ERA) gets the call for the home side. He’s 2-3 with a 6.40 ERA in nine career starts against the Indians. Salazar is 0-1 with a 4.63 ERA in two starts this year, but did have 11 K’s in his last outing. Also note that Salazar was pretty good on the road last year, going 6-4 with a respectable 3.57 ERA. I’ll point out that Cleveland is 130-103 (+4.2 units) in its last 233 against right-handed starters, while Minnesota is just 96-134 (-20.8) units against right-handed starters. I think the under-achieving Indians break out in a big way at the plate tonight against the struggling Gibson. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs +145 | 3-4 | Win | 145 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST) Toronto has given the No. 1 team in the East everything it can handle over the first two games and earned the coveted split in the nation’s capital. The oddsmakers aren’t giving Toronto much of a chance on its home ice, but I think it has an awesome opportunity tonight. In fact, I think it’s obviously safe to say that this is the biggest game of the entire year for the Leafs. The pressure is clearly on the Capitals, as many feel that their window of opportunity is closing. Both teams are going to be tired after back-to-back OT contests, which favors the Leafs on their home ice. Toronto was able to quickly get home after its double OT marathon victory in Game 2. Home ice. Being able to sleep in their own beds and having all of the facilties at their disposal is an advantage. Toronto goaltender Frederik Andersen has been better than Washington’s Braden Holtby and I think that trend also continues here. I’ll also point out that the Capitals are just 7-8 (-6.5 units) this year after allowing four goals or more, while the Leafs are 2-1 (+1.2 units) in their last three after scoring four goals or more in their previous outing. Toronto has the offensive fire-power to match Washington and now it’s getting World class goaltending. Play on the Leafs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-17-17 | Pacers +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-117 | Win | 100 | 32 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Indiana Pacers (7:00 EST). I played Indiana in Game 1 and I think the Pacers can once again take Game 2 down to the wire. Indiana managed to cut the lead to just one in the waning moments of Game 1, but a missed CJ Miles shot at the buzzer sealed the 109-108 home win for the Cavs. Paul George led the way for Indiana with 29 points, five boards and seven assists, while Lance Stephenson chipped in 16 off the bench. The Cavs backed their way into the playoffs, losing four straight and were lucky that Miles missed the shot and that George wasn’t taking it. LeBron James was a standout with 32 points, six boards, 13 assists and three steals. I’ll point out though that Indiana has performed extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 4-0 ATS in its last four after allowing 100 points or more and 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory, while Cleveland is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six when playing on one days rest. Indiana won’t be rolling over. In fact, this is pretty much do-or-die for the Pacers, as an 0-2 hole would likely be just too much for the team to recover from. While I won’t be so bold as to predict the outright upset, I do think that the hungry visitors can at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on the Pacers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Thunder v. Rockets -7 | Top | 87-118 | Win | 100 | 78 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). The 47-35 OKC Thunder are in Houston to take on the 55-27 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. This one features the two leading candidates for MVP in James Harden and Russell Westbrook. Westbrook is probably the better oveall player, but I think that Harden has the better overall team. The Rockets also have home court advantage and I think that will be a crucial deciding factor once it’s all said and done this evening. Houston has to be feeling pretty confident as well as it took three of the four regular season meetings. OKC averages 106.6 PPG and concedes 105.8. Houston averages 115.3 PPG and concedes 109.3. From a trend based stand point, this one heavily favors the home side, as note that OKC is just 12-19 ATS this year against good offensive clubs which average 106 plus points per contest and only 19-22 ATS on the road overall, while Houston is 18-11 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 3-1 ATS when playing with three or more days rest. I think home court advantage will be important in this series and look for the Rockets to set the early tone. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Cardinals v. Yankees -138 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* INTERLEAGUE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New York Yankees (8:05 EST). Adam Wainwright (0-2, 7.00 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors in this one, he most recently was shelled for six runs off 11 hits and two walks over four innings in a 14-6 loss to the Nationals on Monday. The home side counters with Michael Pineda (1-1, 3.97), who went 7.2 innings of one-run ball in a victory over the Rays on Tuesday, scattering just two hits and striking out 11 with no walks. Pineda now owns a 17:0 K:BB ratio this season. Wainwright is labouring, which I think comes back to hurt him again tonight. The Yanks come in off a 3-2 win on Saturday and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. The correct call in this matchup is on Pineda. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Canadiens v. Rangers -125 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST). I’ve played on New York in the first two games. The Rangers took Game 1, 2-0, while the Habs managed a 4-3 OT victory in Game 2. Habs’ netminder Carey Price is 24-28 with a 2.58 GAA in the postseason. The Canadiens are ranked 15th in the league in scoring with just 2.72 GPG, while ranked fourth in goals allowed with just 2.41. Rangers’ goalie Henrik Lundqvist is now 56-60 with a 2.27 GAA in his playoff career. New York is ranked fourth in the league in scoring with 3.09 GPG and 12th in goals allowed with 2.61. I’ll point out though that Montreal is just 12-14 (-6.2 units) this year after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while New York is 14-9 (+2.8 units) after allowing four goals or more. I like the Rangers to bounce back and defend home ice here. Lay the very reasonable price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Bulls +8 v. Celtics | Top | 106-102 | Win | 100 | 76 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Bulls (6:30 EST). The 41-41 Chicago Bulls are in Boston to take on the 53-29 Celtics and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, because for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the visitors. This is strictly a “situational” play. Isaiah Thomas is the heart and soul of the C’s. Thomas’ sister was tragically killed in a car accident early Saturday and he may not even play in this game. If he does, clearly his head won’t be in it. Boston is a deep team, but without their floor general completely focused, I think it is going to struggle tonight. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing with three or more days rest, while Boston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven at home and only 1-5 ATS in its last six home games against a team with a losing road record. These teams split four games this year, and three of those four were decided by seven points or less. I think Chicago does in fact have a shot at a victory today, but as mentioned off the top, I’m grabbing the points in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Blazers v. Warriors UNDER 221.5 | 109-121 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Blazers/Warriors (3:30 EST). The 41-41 Portland Trailblazers are in Golden State to take on the 67-15 Warriors in Game 1 of their Western Conference first round matchup and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Blazers had a three-game win streak snapped with a 103-100 home loss to New Orleans in their finale on Wednesday, while the Warriors won for a 15th time in their last 16 games with a 109-94 victory over the Lakers later that same night. Golden State has won ten of the last 11 in the series, including all four this year, most recently a 113-110 road victory on January 29th. The Warriors have to be feeling pretty confident here as they won the lone playoff series between the clubs, 4-1, in the 2016 Western Conference semifinals. Portland averages 107.9 PPG and concedes 108.5. Golden State averages 115.9 PPG and concedes 104.3. I’ll point out though that the under is 5-1 in Porland’s last six against the Pacific and 4-1 in its last five following a SU loss, while Golden State has seen the under go 5-1 in its last six quarterfinals matchups and 10-3 in its last 13 at home. Both teams tightend up defensively down the stretch and I expect that to carry over here. They can still both score in triple-digits and have this total fall under this sky-high number and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. Good luck…Larry |
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04-16-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -5 | 107-114 | Win | 100 | 70 h 20 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washignton Wizards (1:00 EST). The 43-39 Altanta Hawks are in Washington to take on the 49-33 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Atlanta had won four straight before dropping its regular season finale104-86 at Indiana on Wednesday. The Wizards lost five of the final eight, including a 110-102 road defeat to Miami on Wednesday. If histoy is any precedence though then Washington has to be liking its chances as it would go on to take three of four in the regular season series, including a 104-100 home win in the most recent on March 22nd. Atlanta averages only 103.2 PPG, whil conceding 104. Washington averages 109.2 PPG and concedes 107.4 I’ll point out though that Atlanta is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up loss, while Washington is 6-0 ATS in its last six conference quarterfinals games. The Wizards “struggled” down the stretch, but the team had nothing to play for, locked into its position for a while now. Washington domianted this series in the regular season and I expect that to continue in the Playoffs. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Jazz +6 v. Clippers | Top | 97-95 | Win | 100 | 56 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST). The 51-31 Utah Jazz are in LA to take on the 51-31 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Clippers took the tie-breaker by winning three of four in the season series. Utah though won its last game over the Spurs on Wednesday. Utah hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2012 and will clearly be leaving everything on the floor tonight as it looks to score the upset and gain the early upperhand. The pressure is clearly on LA this year. It comes in having won seven straight, but I think this sets up as a classic trap/letdown spot for the home side. As note that Utah is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while LA is just 15-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more and only 9-15 ATS after scoring 115 points or more. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I do think that the stage is set for a nail-biter. In a contest which I believe will be decided in the closing moments, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Flames +138 v. Ducks | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Calgary Flames (10:35 EST). I think the Flames offer good value here. Anaheim managed a 3-2 OT win in Game 1. It clearly could have gone either way. While I think the “Law Of Averages” is flawed in many ways, I’ve always believed that lop-sided trends and numbers have a way of natually correcting themselves. Calgary has lost 28 straight at the Honda Center after the Game 1 setback. Suffice it to say, I look for that trend to finally get squashed tonight. Brian Elliot gets the call in net again this evening, he’s 15-20 with a repsectable 2.51 GAA lifetime in the playoffs. Calgary averages 2.71 GPG, while conceding 2.67. John Gibson gets the nod for the home side and he’s now 3-4 witha 2.71 GAA lifetime in his career. I’ll point out though that Calgary is 25-15 (+11.5 units) this year in revenging a loss against an opponent, while Anaheim is just 4-5 (-2.4 units) after a three-game unbeaten streak. It’s do-or-die essentially for Calgary tonight. I’m banking on the Flames getting the job done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Spurs -9 | Top | 82-111 | Win | 100 | 53 h 22 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:00 EST). The 43-39 Memphis Grizzlies are in San Antonio to take on the 61-21 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. If recent history is any precedence, then the Spurs have to be loving their chances today as they swept the Grizzlies in the first round last year. Memphis averaged just 100.5 PPG, but made up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 100. The Spurs averaged 105.3 PPG and conceded just 98.1. I’ll point out though that Memphis has struggled in this spot for bettors this year, going just 1-11 ATS when playing with two days rest, while the Spurs are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 in the first round of the playoffs. Memphis was consistently inconsistent this year, while San Antonio remained in the Top 3 in the league the entire way. Experience and coaching counts in these situations. Lay the points, play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Bucks v. Raptors -6.5 | 97-83 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (5:30 EST). The 42-40 Milwaukee Bucks are in Toronto to take on the 51-31 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bucks backed their way into the playoffs, dropping four of six, falling 112-94 at Boston on Wednesday. The Raptors trended the other way to finish the season with four straight victories, most recently an impressive 98-83 win on the road in Cleveland on Wednesday. Toronto has to be feeling pretty confident here, as it’s won 13 of the last 15 in the series, including a 101-94 home win in the latest on March 4th. The Bucks averaged just 103.6 PPG (ranked 20th), while ranked ninth defensively in conceding 103.8. Toronto averaged 106.9 PPG (ranked 10th), while conceding just 102.6. I’ll point out that Milwaukee is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against a team with a winning SU record, while Toronto is 9-2 ATS in its last 11 when playing on two days rest. Milwaukee’s struggles cost it a matchup against the Wizards, which would be preferable than having to travel North of the border. The Raptors have momentum and coupled with their recent playoff experience, suffice it to say I’m expecting a complete blowout in Game 1. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Tigers v. Indians -141 | Top | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 4 m | Show |
This is a 10* Situational Stunner on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST). Cleveland has so far underperformed, it’s now just 4-6 and looking up at the 7-3 Tigers after yesterday’s 7-6 loss. Justin Verlander has looked pretty good to start the year for Detroit, but I think that Corey Kluber and company will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Verlander (1-0, 1.35 ERA) most recently gave up one unearned run off three hits and two walks over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Red Sox on Monday. There was some room to read between the lines though, as he was in fact struggling to find the zone, needing 112 pitches to make it through the seven frames. Kluber (0-1, 5.25 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and one walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. A date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked though, not that Kluber was 10-5 with a 3.24 ERA in front of the home town crowd last year (also 6-4 with a 3.10 ERA in all “day” games). I’ll point out that Detroit is just 3-4 (-1.6 units) in its last seven following a victory, while Cleveland is 16-5 (+10 units) in its last 21 after three or more consecutive losses. I think Verlander takes a step back and look for Kluber to take a giant leap forward. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-15-17 | Pacers +9 v. Cavs | 108-109 | Win | 100 | 48 h 12 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indiana Pacers (3:00 EST). The 42-40 Indiana Pacers are in Cleveland to take on the 51-31 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. Now that the playoffs are here, are the Cavs just going to “flip-a-switch?!” That’s what the all the talking heads out there will lead you to believe. Does this one mean more to Cleveland that it does to Indiana? The answer to that one is clearly a resounding “no.” Indiana clinched a spot with a 104-86 win over the Hawks on Wednesday, while the Cavs backed their way into the postsesaon, losing four straight to end the year. This is a revenge game for Indiana, as it lost three of four in the season series, including a 135-130 doulbe OT thriller on April 2nd. The Pacers average 105.1 points per night and concede 105.3. The Cavs average 110.3 PPG and concede 107.2 What’s with this 9-point (give or take upon the closing line) spread? I’ll point out that Indiana is 5-0 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while Cleveland is just 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 games following a double-digit loss at home. Until Cleveland can prove to me that it’s turned the corner, I’m going against the Cavs to open the playoffs. Too many points, play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-17 | Sharks v. Oilers -146 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Edmonton Oilers (10:35 EST). It’s do-or-die for the Oilers essentially tonight as a 2-0 hole heading back to San Jose for Game 3 would likely be too much for them to overcome. I actually had a play on San Jose in its Game 1 victory (the 10* play in my Opening Night Superstar Triple Play), but I think the value is definitely on the home side in Game 2 and can’t understand how this line isn’t a lot higher. The Sharks stole Game 1 after being down 2-0 and scoring the winner in OT. The Oilers also commited six penalties in Game 1, one of which led to a Sharks goal: “We’ve got to stay out of the box,” Oilers’ forward Jordan Eberle lamented afterwards. “You lose momentum by doing that. The guys who kill (the penalties) are wasting a lot of energy and the guys who aren’t are sitting on the bench. We had a tough time generating some momentum after that.” I don’t think there is anything to worry about if you’re an Oilers fan. Edmonton has all the pieces in place here for an immediate and confident bounce back, note that the Oilers finished eighth in the league in scoring this year with an average of 3.00 GPG. I’ll also point out that despite earning the Game 1 victory, San Jose is still just 2-6 in its last eight on the road, while Edmonton is 9-1 in its last ten in front of the home town crowd. All signs point to a bounce back for Edmonton. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-17 | Angels v. Royals -142 | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). After 111 career relief appearances, JC Ramirez will make his first ever major league start for the Angels tonight. Suffice it to say, I think he’s going to fail spectacularly. Ramirez has been sharp in relief this year, going 2-0 with a 1.80 ERA. But this is taking the 28-year old Nicaraguan completely out of his element. And he draws a tough matchup as well in throwing opposite Royals’ ace Danny Duffy (1-0, 2.08 ERA), who most recently beat the Astros 7-3 on Saturday, allowing two runs off eight scattered hits spanning seven innings of work. KC plays with revenge here as well after LA took five of six in the season series a year ago. Lay the price, play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-17 | Padres v. Braves -149 | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 33 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). The Braves are off to an awful start (2-6), but have to be feeling pretty confident in their home opener in their new ballpark with their ace on the mound. The Padres are 5-5, but send a confirmed “gas can” to the hill tonight. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price on the home side here. Julio Teheran gets the nod for the Braves and so far he hasn’t allowed an earned run over 13 innings over his first two starts. Teheran dominated the Friars last year, going 2-0 with a 2.40 ERA and striking out 16 to just one walk over 15 innings of work. The vistors turn to Jhoulys Chacin, who was lost 13-4 to the Dodgers in his opener, but who looked better in his second start against the Giants, holding them to zero runs off three hits over 6 1/3’s innings. Note though that Chacin has struggled against Atlanta, going 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.05 ERA lifetime. Look for the Teheran to put on a show in his new park and lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-17 | Mets -155 v. Marlins | 2-3 | Loss | -155 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). The Mets beat the Marlins 9-8 in 16 innings last night, with Travis d’Arnaud’s home run off Adam Conley being the difference maker. Conley was supposed to start tonight, but Edison Volquez will be thrust into action. He’s 0-1 with a 3.27 ERA. The visitors counter with ace Noah Syndergaard (1-0, 0.69 ERA), who has held Marlins’ slugger Giancarlo Stanton to a .000 batting average in 12 matchups. Syndergaard is averaging 10.4 K’s per nine innings and has a 5.41 K to walk ratio. Note that he already beat the Marlins this year, 5-2 just last week. Volquez is off normal rest, but he now faces a Mets’ line-up which leads the league with 20 homers, which is more than double Miami’s. This is a massive mismatch on the mound. I look for New York to come in as the more energized team here after last night’s marathon victory. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-17 | Rangers +135 v. Canadiens | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 0 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST). I made a play on New York in Game 1 and I think it has much better than just a “punchers chance” in Game 2 as well. Tanner Glass, and Chris Kreider scored for New York in Game 1, which is fourth in the league in scoring with an average of 3.09 GPG. The Rangers are 12th on the defensive end in conceding 2.63 GPG. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist stopped all 31 shots and is now 32-24 with a 2.69 GAA on the year, including 16-11 with a 2.40 GAA on the road. Carey Price absorbed the loss for the Habs, he’s now 37-26 with a 2.22 GAA on the year, including 23-15 with a 2.09 GAA at home. Montreal is ranked 15th in scoring with 2.72 GPG, while ranked fourth in goals allowed in conceding 2.41. New York was the league’s best road team (now 28-14 away from friendly confines). The value is simply too good to turn down, as I expect Lundqvist to once again outplay Price. Play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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04-14-17 | Blue Jackets v. Penguins OVER 5.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 60 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the the over Jackets/Pens (7:05 EST). It’s do-or-die for Columbus after falling 3-1 in Game 1. Heading home in a 2-0 hole would likely be too much for the Jackets to overcome agianst the defending champs. Columbus wasn’t able to take advantage of a last second goaltenders change in Game 1, with Matt Murray getting injured in the warm-ups, forcing veteran Marc-Andre Fleury into action. Fleury looked great, but I think he’s going to have his hands full with a Blue Jackets team with ranked sixth in the league in scoring with 3.01 GPG. Columbus goaltender Sergei Bobrovsky has been solid all year and has enjoyed plenty of success against the Pens throughout his caeer, but note that he’s struggled in the postseason, just 2-7 with a 3.44 GAA in his career. Bobrovsky will be counting on his offense in picking up the pace today as the Pens come in tied with the Blue Jackets in scoring this year with an average of 3.01 GPG. I’m expecting a wide open affair and for this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-17 | Maple Leafs +188 v. Capitals | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 77 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* TOP DOG OPENING ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:00 EST). Can the Leafs score the big upset against the mighty Capitals? Just ask the Sharks and the Bruins what they think about upsetting in Game 1 of the NHL Playoffs! I cashed with both Boston and San Jose last night and I think Toronto has all the pieces in place to do the same thing in the nation’s capital this evening. Toronto lost three of its final four to the year, but don’t read too much into that as the Leafs had already clinched and were trying to simply get through the remainder of the regular season without too many injuries. Washington could come in complacent here as well after winning ten of its last 12 and earning its second President’s Cup trophy in a row. Frederick Andersen gets the nod for the visitors, he was 33-30 with a 2.67 GAA on the year and 16-13 with a 2.74 GAA on the road. Note that he’s been particularly sharp whenever facing the Capitals, going 2-1 with a 2.67 GAA. The Leafs average 3.05 GPG and concede 2.83. Washington averages 3.18 GPG and concedes 2.16. Braden Holtby gets the nod in net, he’s 42-19 with a 2.07 GAA on the year. I’ll point out though that Toronto is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (lost two of three to the Capitals this year), while Washington is already 0-6 (-9.8 units) this season when playing with three or more days rest. I like the Leafs to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-17 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -110 | 2-1 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). Baltimore is 5-2 this year. After getting smashed 8-1 in Boston Tuesday, the Orioles bounced back with a big 12-5 win last night. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here. Toronto is 1-7. It’s the worst start ever for the franchise. Are the Jays really as bad as their win/loss record would indicate? Clearly the answer to that one is “no.” The Jays have gotten decent pitching so far this year, but the offense has been a disaster. Toronto lost Edwin Encarnacion to free agency in the summer, which is significant, but still doesn’t even come close to explaining why this explosive line-up is struggling right now. I don’t think it’s anything to worry about though. No matter how good your line-up is, at some point in the season it’s going to go through a “slump.” Unfortunately for the Jays, it’s coming right at the start of the year. I believe it’s only a matter of time before they start raking again. And here’s the perfect opponent to try and get untracked against. Toronto opened its season at Baltimore with a two game set and lost 3-2 and 3-1 respectively. Kevin Gausman gets the call tonight, he went 5.1 innings against the Jays and gave up two runs off five hits. Gausman took a step back in his second start against the Yanks though, allowing four runs off eight hits over 4.2 innings. The home side counters with Francisco Liriano, who started the year on the DL, but who was activated on Tuesday. Liriano looked horrible in his first start, lasting just a third of an inning on April 7th, allowing five runs: “I think it was a little bit of everything,” Liriano said after he could not make it out of the first inning for just the second time in 257 career starts. “Overthrowing, mechanically, missing my spot. I just didn’t execute pitches. That’s the main thing. You have to execute pitches when you have men on base. I was getting behind in the count a lot and I didn’t execute pitches.” I’ll point out that Baltimore is just 8-22 in Gausman’s last 30 road starts, while Toronto is 7-3 in its last ten during Game 1 of a series. Gausman was just 3-10 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA on the road last year. I like Liriano to shrug off his first start and to do just enough to help his team earn its second victory of the season. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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04-13-17 | Rangers -119 v. Angels | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (3:30 EST). I think this is a big pitching mismatch. The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish, while the home side turns to Ricky Nolasco. Both are 0-1 to start the year. So far the Rangers are hitting just .222 collectively, but they’ve made up for it with a big .436 slugging percentage, which ranks in the top ten. So far Darvish has allowed five earned runs over 13 innings spanning two starts this year. Darvish looked shaky in his first outing, but looked a lot better in his last start, allowing only one run over six frames, unfortuante to receive a loss due to a rare lack of offensive production. Suffice it to say, I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Darvish will have to be sharp, as LA comes in as one of the highest scoring teams in the league, having already plated 41 so far this year. Nolasco though hasn’t looked overly impressive this year, most recently giving up two runs over six frames to the light-hitting Mariners. Note that he was just 3-7 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA at home last season. I give Darvish the nod on the bump and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the visitors in this matchup. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Sharks +119 v. Oilers | Top | 3-2 | Win | 119 | 57 h 31 m | Show |
This is a 10* play on the San Jose Sharks (10:05 EST). I think this is a good spot to pull the trigger on the slight, but well experienced dog this evening. The Sharks were just 4-9-2 down the stretch, thanks in part to injuries to star players Joe Thornton and Logan Couture. Both have been out since late March. Both are cleared and are ready to go tonight though. San Jose goaltender Martin Jones would finish the regular season with a highly respectable 2.40 GAA and .912 save percentage. The Oilers finished the season on an 8-1 run and a three-game win streak to make the postseason for the first time in over a decade. All it took was about nine No. 1 picks in a row and a few years to re-tool and now finally the team has made the playoffs. It absolutely looks like a classic “letdown” spot for the young Oilers in my professinal opinion. The regular season stats and numbers all favor Edmonton, but I think the conditions are right for San Jose to spring the upset. At least in Game 1. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Blues v. Wild -143 | 2-1 | Loss | -143 | 56 h 4 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota WIld (9:35 EST). These teams played five times this year and the Blues went 3-2. Minnesota though took two of three in its own barn and suffice it to say, I think the home side will find a way to get the job done in Game 1 as well. The Blues average 2.8 GPG and allow 2.6. Goaltender Jake Allen was 33-20-5 with a 2.42 GAA. The Wild enter the playoffs on fire, they’ve won four straight and they’ll be leaning heavily on goaltender Devan Dubnyk tonight. Dubnyk finished 40-19-5 with a 2.25 GAA. Minnesota averages 3.2 GPG and concedes 2.5. I think Dubnyk is the correct call here. For a large part of the season, the Wild were the best team in the league. Now that we’re finally in the postseason, I think Minnesota has a chance to make some serious noise. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Mavs v. Grizzlies -6 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST). It’s the final day of the regular season, so many of the techniques that handicappers have used for the regular season just don’t pertain in this situation. This is a great situational play in my opinion, as the Mavs come in off a game just last night against the Nuggets and will now look to put the final nail in the coffin in another disappointing season. The Grizzlies on the other hand would love to have a win before the postseason as they’ve stumbled of late, losing four of their last five, most recently a 103-90 setback to Detroit on Sunday. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four in the second game of a back-to-back, while Memphis is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 90 points or less. I like the Grizzlies to push the pace and end the season on a high note in front of the home town crowd, while I also expect the visitors to simply go through the motions in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -135 | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). LA has lost three of its last four after dropping the opener of this series on Monday night. The Dodgers managed just one run and four hits over six innings against southpaw Jon Lester. Today the visitors turn to Brandon McCarthy, who due to injury has been limited to just 63 innings over the last two seasons combined. In his 2017 debut against the soft-hitting Friars, he’d allow two runs and four hits over six innings with four K’s in the victory. Chicago counters with John Lackey, who gave up four runs and six hits over six innings, to go along with seven K’s and two walks in a loss to the Cards in his debut. I’ll point out though that the Dodgers are 1-4 their last five on the road, while the Cubs are 6-1 in Lackey’s last seven starts following a “quality start” in his last appearance. I like Lackey to bounce back here, he was 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA at Wrigley last season. This game has a lot of meaning for the home side, as the players will receive their World Series rings before it starts. I think the Cubs find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -150 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -150 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I had a play on the Red Sox yesterday and they’d go on to smoke the Orioles 8-1. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar type beatdown here in what I think to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors send the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez to the hill, he was shelled for five runs, including two homers over 4.1 innings to the Yanks in his first start this season. Jimenez was crushed by Boston last year, going 0-2 and allowing 11 runs over just 15.1 innings of work. In his career, he’s a miserable 2-6 with a 6.82 ERA against the Red Sox. Steven Wright gave up four runs off seven hits over 6.2 innings against the Tigers in his first start, lucky to receive a no-decision. Wright has to be feeling pretty confident in a bounce back here though as he domianted the Orioles last year, allowing only five runs over 16.1 innings of work. Note that in 22 career innings against Baltimore, he owns a highly respectable 2.45 ERA. Jimenez is a train wreck and the fact that the Boston bats finally woke up in yesterday’s beatdown loss does not bode well for the beleagured veteran. All things considered, I think this is a great price, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Bruins -119 v. Senators | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 54 h 32 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Bruins (7:05 EST). Boston is the fifth seed and it won six of its final eight games of the regular season. Ottawa is the fourth seed, it won three of its final four. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Bruins though would be a bit of an understatement I think as the Sens went on to take all four meetings between the clubs this year. Boston fired Claude Julien as head coach and hired Bruce Cassidy and since then it’s gone 18-9. Tuukka Rask gets the call in net and he’s 37-25 with a 2.23 GAA on the year, including 17-14 with a 2.41 GAA on the road. The Bruins are ranked 13th in scoring in averaging 2.83 GPG, while ranked ninth in goals allowed by conceding an average of 2.55. (note that the B’s are No. 1 on the penalty kill though, allowing teams to only convert 14.3 percent of their chances. That’s a super important stat in my opinion, especially in the playoffs). The Senators are ranked 22nd in scoring with 2.51 GPG, while ranked tenth on the defensive end in conceding 2.56. Goaltender Craig Anderson is 25-15 with a 2.28 GAA on the year, while in his career against Boston his an unremarkable 12-11 with a 2.96 GAA (note that the Sens are ranked 21st on the penalty kill, allowing 20.2 percent). I think Boston is in better form right now and is also better suited for the playoffs. Play on the Bruins. Good luck…Larry |
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04-12-17 | Reds v. Pirates -145 | 9-2 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 4 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). The Reds took Game 1 of this series 7-1 and then kept the momentum rolling with a 6-2 victory in Game 2 yesterday. Suffice it to say, i think it’s payback time tonight! The visitors turn to Amir Garrett, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA after beating the Cards on the road Friday, going six scoreless in the eventual 2-0 victory. Garrett was 25-29 with a 3.18 ERA and 1.24 WHIP in 496 innings of work in the minors, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie. After sweeping the Braves, the Pirates have come out flat with a couple of rare back-to-back “duds.” Sending Ivan Nova to the hill is a good way to get back on track, he also won his first outing of the season, going six innings and allowing one run off six hits with no walks and four K’s. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 3.82 ERA and 1.061 WHIP over 33 innings lifetime against the Reds. He’s also a near-perfect 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.928 WHIP over 46.2 innings in seven starts at PNC Park. I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 15-39 in its last 54 against a starter with a WHIP less than 1.5, while the Bucs are 10-3 in their last 13 against southpaws. Despite how good Garrett looked in his first start, I’m giving the big nod to Nova in this matchup. The veteran has been almost un-hittable at home and certainly the Pirates will be desperate to salvage one game of this series. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-17 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -138 | 4-3 | Loss | -138 | 33 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). Arizona is 6-2 to open the season and San Francsico is just 3-5. The Diamondbacks swept the Indians, but then came out flat in last night’s 4-1 series opening loss. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. The visitors send Robbie Ray to the hill, he received a no-decision against these very Giants in his first start of the year, allowing three runs off three hits and three walks over 5.2 innings of work in the eventual 9-3 win. Last year Ray was just 8-15 with a 4.90 ERA in 32 starts, including only 3-9 with a 4.50 ERA in 17 on the road. The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija, who lost 9-3 to the Diamondbacks throwing opposite Ray. He did have nine K’s in that one. Note that he’s 12-11 with a 3.81 ERA in 32 starts for the Giants overall. I’ll point out though that the Diamondbacks are just 7-19 in Ray’s last 26 road starts, while the Giants are 36-17 in their last 53 home games against southpaws. I love Samardzija to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and get the better of his volatile counterpart. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-17 | Nuggets v. Mavs UNDER 212.5 | Top | 109-91 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Nuggets/Mavericks (8:35 EST). The 38-42 Denver Nuggets are in Dallas to take on the 32-48 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. These are two teams playing out the end of their respective seasons. Denver fell apart in a 106-105 home loss to OKC on Sunday, while Dallas lost its fourth straight and its eighth out of its last nine after falling 124-111 at Phoenix on Sunday. Denver has taken two of three in the season series, including a 110-87 win at home on February 6th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score this evening as well. Denver is the third highest scoring team in the league with an average of 111.8 PPG and it’s horrible defensively, ranked 27th in conceding 111.5. But I think the Nuggets finally have a letdown here, as the loss to Oklahoma City, coupled with the Blazers victory on Saturday put the final nail in the coffin for their playoff hopes. It’s a classic “letdown” spot if I’ve ever seen one. The Mavs started slow, had a small mid-season surge and then predictably fell apart down the stretch. Dallas will end the season ranked dead last in PPG with 98. Dallas is decent defensively though in conceding only 100.8. I’ll point out that Denver has seen the total go under the number in six of nine this year against poor offensive teams that average 98 points or less per contest, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly 13 of 21 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. A couple of disinterested teams put forth a half-assed effort and this one falls under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-17 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Goin Over Total is the over Braves/Marlins (7:10 EST). A couple of confirmed “gas cans” sqaure off in the opener of this two-game divisional series. Miami is tied for first right now in the NL East at 3-3, while Atlanta is just 1-5. The visitors turn to the venerable Bartolo Colon, who had a shaky spring, posting a 6.49 ERA, but who looked decent against his former team in his season opener, allowing one earned run and two hits over six innings of work. Miami turns to Dan Straily after its three game win streak was snapped in a 5-2 loss to the Mets on Sunday. The Fish have looked pretty good offensively this year, hitting .274 collectively, which ranks them fourth overall. That offense is going to likely need to pick up the slack again today as Straily looked brutal in his first start of the year, going 3 1/3’s innings, giving up five runs off six hits in the seventual 6-4 loss to the Nationals. Also note that Atlanta is hitting .414 against him lifetime. I’ll point out that the Braves have already seen the total go over the number in four of six on the road this year, while Miami has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of its last 11 when playing with a day off. When taking all of the above factors into account, I think this number is just a little low. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -116 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). This is the first game a short two-game series from Fenway Park. Baltimore is 4-1 so far, while Boston is 3-2. The visitors send Dylan Bundy to the hill and he looked pretty good in his first start against Toronto, giving up just one run over 7.1 innings of work. I’m going to caution in reading too much into one good start though. Bundy had mixed results this spring and he struggled mightily against the Red Sox last year, getting shelled for 15 runs off 31 hits over 20 innings of work. The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz, who makes his season debut tonight. Pomeranz had just a 4.59 ERA with the Red Sox last year, starting slow, but finishing decently. Pomeranz, like the rest of the Red Sox rotation was the beneficiary of the league’s most potent offense last season though. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-4 (-2.8 units) in its last five against left-handed starters, while Boston is 5-2 (+1.3 units) in its last seven against right-handed starters. This is a big season for Pomeranz, who was a standout in San Diego and who has so far been a disappointment in Boston. I’m not convinced Bundy has turned any corners and think he’ll struggle today in this hostile environment. In my opinion, this line could/should easily be much higher. Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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04-11-17 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Daytime Dominator is the over Twins/Tigers (1:10 EST). A couple of confirmed “gas cans” collide on Tuesday afternoon and in my opinion, all signs point to a slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to Hector Santiago (1-0, 1.80 ERA) who comes in off a gem in his first start of the year, allowing one run off four hits and two walks while striking out four over five innings in a 9-1 beatdown of the Royals last Wednesday. Despite falling behind in the count, the southpaw limited the damage. I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent outing though, as note that Santiago has posted a poor 5.58 ERA in 11 starts since coming over to Minnesota last year. And note that he was particularly horrible in this spot last season, going just 3-5 with a ballooned 5.60 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Matt Boyd (0-1, 19.29 ERA) who was rocked in his season debut for five runs off five hits and four walks while striking out two over just 2.1 innings in Thursday’ 11-2 setback to the White Sox. Boyd finished 6-5 with a 4.81 ERA last year, but wasn’t particularly impressive in day games (0-1, 3.92) or in front of the home town crowd (4.89 ERA). I’m expecting these two train-wrecks to get the hook early and for this total to easily eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-17 | Wizards -2.5 v. Pistons | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). The 48-32 Washington Wizards are in Detroit to take on the 36-43 Pistons and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wizards lost for a fourth time in their last six games with a 106-103 setback to the Heat on Saturday night, dropping the team back into fourth place in the East. Washington remains fifth in the league in scoring with 109.3 per contest, while ranked 21st in conceding 107.4. John Wall leads the team with 23.1 points, 10.7 assists and 2.01 steals per game. The Pistons average 101.2 PPG and concede 102.4. Tobias Harris leads all players with 16.2 points, plus 5.1 boards per game. I’ll point out that Washington is 23-13 ATS this season in trying ot revenge a loss against an opponent, while Detroit is just 15-22 ATS as an underdog. The Pistons have nothing to play for right now except the role of spoiler. There’s nothing to spoil for Washington though, which has already punched its ticket to the posteason. Detroit looked bad against Memphis last time out and I don’t think it’ll put up much of a fight here either. The Wizards are cold at the worst possible time, but have a big opportunity here to get untracked and gain some momentum as they head into the playoffs. Lay the points, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-17 | Cardinals v. Nationals -130 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). The Cards were hammered 8-0 at home to the Reds yesterday and dropped two of three in that series. The Nats can empathize, they lost the last two games of their three game series with the Phillies, falling 4-3 Sunday afternoon on the road. St. Louis though looks horrible at the plate and I think that trend of anemic play gets carried over here. Note that the Cards have been held to one run or less in three of their first six games. Adam Wainwright gets the call in this one, so far he’s 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA after allowing two runs off three hits and two walks with six K’s over five innings to the Cubs on Tuesday. Wainwright has enjoyed success against the Nats in his career, but I think he’ll have his hands full today against the focused home side. Washington turns to Tanner Roark to “right the ship,” he’s 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA and 0.833 WHIP on the season, going six innings and allowing two runs off three hits and two walks and six K’s in a 6-4 win over Miami in his first start. Roark has struggled against the Cards in the past, but he’s been a beast at home no matter who he’s faced, going 22-13 with a 2.79 ERA and 1.161 WHIP over 274 innings pitched at Nationals Park. This is the Cards first game on the road and I expect Roark and the home side to take advantage. The price is right in this one, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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04-10-17 | A's v. Royals -129 | 2-0 | Loss | -129 | 24 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Kansas City Royals. The Royals won the World Series in 2015, but they’d return to .500 last season. The A’s took the season series 6-1 a year ago. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time. The Royals come back home after taking two of three from Houston, but dropping the finale yesterday 5-4 in 15 innings. It was a great turnaround series after stumbling out of the gate, the Royals are now 2-4 overall. KC has to be feeling pretty confident in facing A’s starter Jharel Cotton, who was shelled for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings to the Angels in his first start of the year. The youngster looked great in five starts last season, but clearly the sample size is still too small to get a proper read on this volatile hurler quite yet. The home side counters with Ian Kennedy, who gave up three runs over five innings in a loss to the Twins in his opener. It was a bit of a disappointment, as Kennedy had had a strong spring previous to that sub-par outing. I’ll point out though that Oakland is just 5-11 in its last 16 against right-handed starters, while KC is interestingly 4-1 in Kennedy’s last five starts in the first game of a series. Kennedy looked pretty pedestrian in his first trip to the mound, but he looked a lot better than his counterpart did in his first. I think KC turned a corner in the series against the Astros and I look for that momentum to get carried over into this one. I think this line should in fact be a lot larger, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-17 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 2-5 | Push | 0 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* National League TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Marlins/Mets (8:00 EST). Sunday Night Baseball this week features a couple of competent hurlers facing off and in my opinion, all signs point to a classic “duel.” The Marlins won 8-1 yesterday and look to take the finale as well by sending Edinson Volquez to the hill. In his debut last week he struck out six over five shutout innings in Washington. The right-hander threw 51 of his 82 pitches for strikes and he has to be feeling pretty confident going into this one, as when he faced New York in his lone start last season, he’d give up two hits over six shutout frames. The home side turns to ace Noah Syndergaard, who has never lost to the Marlins in three career starts, allowing four runs while striking out 29 with just two walks in that span. Syndergaard will be leaned upon heavily here to reach the latter innings as the bullpen has been taxed of late, especially in yesterday’s lop-sided blowout loss in which it used six relievers. I’ll point out that Miami has seen the total go under the number in nine of its last 15 as a road dog in the +150 to +200 range, while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in both games so far this season against right-handed starters. I expect Volquez and Syndergaard to battle deep and for this total to fall under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-17 | Cavs -1.5 v. Hawks | Top | 125-126 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (3:35 EST). I played on Cleveland in its big win over the Celtics earlier in the week, a victory which would give the Cavs the No. 1 spot in the East at the time. A favorable matchup the following night against an Atlanta Hawks team which would be without most of its starting players looked like a perfect opportunity to keep the momentum rolling, but the home side would come out flat and inexplicably fell 114-100 on Friday. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time today as note that ATL has in fact taken two of three in the season series from the Cavs already. The Cavs are still fighting for the No. 1 seed in the East. They average 110.4 PPG and concede 106.8. LeBron James had 27 points, eight boards and seven assists in the setback on Friday. The Hawks average 103.1 PPG and concede 104.1. Note that ATL hits just 34.2 percent from range, ranked 24th overall. Kyrie Irving and Tristan Thompson are both doubtful for this one, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. The Hawks are also dealing with injury issues. I believe Cleveland feels embarrassed by its performance last time out and I look for it to make amends with a decisive effort this evening. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-17 | A's v. Rangers -120 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Texas Rangers (3:05 EST). Ultimately I think that the oddsmaker’s are not giving Martins Perez enough respect in this matchup, as I have no faith whatsoever in A’s starter Sean Manaea. Manaea was 7-9 with a 3.86 ERA last year, including just 2-6 with a 4.99 ERA in 11 starts on the road. He’s also a poor 1-1 with a 4.18 ERA in four starts against Texas, including 0-1 with a ballooned 5.68 ERA in two outings at Rangers Ballpark. Manaea gave up four runs off five hits and two walks over six innings against the Angels on Tuesday. Perez was 10-11 with a 4.39 ERA in 33 starts last year, including 8-3 with a 3.24 ERA in 18 starts at home. Overall he’s 17-13 with a 3.75 ERA in 43 lifetime starts at Rangers Ballpark. Perez gave up three runs off five hits and four walks across six innings in Tuesday’s 4-3 loss to the Indians, striking out four. He gave up all three runs over the first two innings, but he’d settle down nicely over his remaining four, not allowing a single hit. Oakland has averaged just 4.00 RPG to open the year, while Texas has average 6.00. I’m giving Perez the nod in this matchup on the mound and a big nod to the Rangers at the plate, who look poised for a productive afternoon against the inconsistent Manaea. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-09-17 | Red Sox -126 v. Tigers | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 20 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (1:10 EST). Detroit won 4-1 on Saturday afternoon, but with its ace on the mound, I expect Boston to bounce back in the finale. Rick Porcello won the Cy Young award last year and he’d open up the 2017 season with a 5-3 win over the Pirates, allowing three runs over 6.1 innings of work. Last year he was 22-4 with a 3.15 ERA, including 9-3 with a 3.31 ERA in 17 starts on the road. Daniel Norris was 4-2 with a 3.38 ERA in 14 games last year. Norris was sidelined with “arm fatigue” to end spring training, but has been cleared to go. Norris is 0-2 with an 8.31 ERA in three games against Boston and is 1-3 with a 4.14 ERA in nine starts at Comerica Park. I’ll point out that Boston is 15-6 in its last 21 against left-handed starters, while Detroit is interestingly just 3-9 in its last 12 home games against a team with a raod winning percentage of less than .400. Norris has shown lots of promise, but the arm fatigue issue make Porcello the correct call here. Look for Boston to battle back and avenge yesterday’s setback with a convincing victory. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-17 | Mariners -118 v. Angels | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -118 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:05 EST). I had a 10* play on Jesse Chavez and the Angels last night, but I think the Mariners can bounce back with their ace on the mound this evening. Hernandez lost his first start of the season, despite only giving up just two runs against the Astros. Hernandez would go on to strike out six in the unfortunate setback. The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco, who was shelled for three earned runs off seven hits over 5 2/3’s innings in his first start against Oakland this year. Two costly home runs proved to be the difference. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 10-4 in its last 14 road games against right-handed starters and 6-2 in Hernandez’s last eight starts following a team loss in its previous game, while LA is just 2-5 in Nolasco’s last seven starts versus the American League West. “The King” looked great against a dangerous Astros lineup, while Nolasco struggled against the soft-hitting A’s in their respective openers. Sometimes recent performance is the best indicator we have in properly judging starting pitching and in this case, I definitely feel that Hernandez has a big/clear advantage. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-17 | Wild -155 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 54 m | Show |
This is an 8* Las Vegas Insider on the Minnesota Wild (9:05 EST). The 48-25-6-2 Minnesota Wild are in Arizona to take on the 30-41-8-1 Coyotes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Arizona looks poised for a letdown here after winning three of its last four. Minnesota looks to go into the playoffs on a high-note and it comes into this one on fire, having won three straight. Devan Dubnyk had 30 saves for his career high 40th win in a victory over the Avs on Thursday. He’s 40-19-5 on the year with a 2.25 GAA. The Wild average 3.21 GPG and concede just 2.53. The Coyotes average 2.35 GPG and concede 3.15. Mike Smith is 19-25-9 on the year with a 2.92 GAA. I’ll point out that the Wild care 12-4 in their last 16 against the Pacific division, while the Coyotes are 3-8 in their last 11 following a victory. The Wild haven’t lost to the Coyotes in regulation since 2013 and I don’t see them taking the foot off the gas at this point of the season. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-17 | Braves v. Pirates -134 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). The Pirates held on for a 5-4 series opening win yesterday and i think the home side will also find a way to pull it out this evening as well. RA Dickey makes his first start for the Braves after spending four years in Toronto. Last year he won only ten games and posted a poor 4.46 ERA over 169.2 innings of work. Dickey looked shaky in the spring and draws a tough first venue to open 2017. The home side counters with Chad Kuhl, who was 5-4 with a 4.20 ERA last year. Kuhl would allow seven earned runs over 14.2 innings this spring and posted a solid .185 opponent batting average. Pittsburgh has done well in this spot, going 5-1 in Kuhl’s last six home starts and 4-0 in its last four home games against right-handed starters. The Braves are now just 2-7 in their last nine in Pittsburgh and all signs point to another blowout mismatch. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-17 | Heat v. Wizards -6 | Top | 106-103 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Washington Wizards (7:05 EST). The 38-41 Miami Heat are in the nation’s capital to take on the 48-31 WIzards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Heat’s playoff hopes are fading quickly after falling 96-94 in Toronto just last night. The Wizards are trending in the opposite direction, as they’ve won two straight after edging by the Knicks 106-103 on the road Thursday. This is a double revenge scenario, as Miami has taken the first two meetings this year, including a 112-101 home victory in the last matchup back on December 12th. It was an amazing run for the Heat after the All Star break, but they’ve now run out of gas. Miami has lost three of its last four. The Heat are a poor offensive team, averaging 102.9 PPG. Miami makes up for it on the defensive end though by conceding just 101.9. The Wizards are a good offensive team, averaging 109.4. Washington is poor defensively though in conceding 107.4 per night. But the situational and motivational factors are clearly working in favor of the home side in this one. Washington now looks to close the season strong, to avenge the two earlier losses and to take advantage of what will clearly be a very tired Heat side. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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04-08-17 | Yankees +105 v. Orioles | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 45 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST). Baltimore won a back-and-forth, 6-5 series opener yesterday, but I think New York can bounce back this afternoon with its ace on the mound. Masahiro Tanaka had a career year last season and also a strong spring performance, but he came up short in his first start of 2017, getting shelled for seven runs off eight hits with two walks over 2.2 innings against the Rays. A date against the O’s is just what the doctor ordered for Tanaka to get untracked though, as he’s posted a tiny 2.39 ERA and 0.876 WHIP over five starts against them. In his lone start at Camden yards last year, Tanaka threw eight scoreless, allowing five hits and striking out seven. The home side counters with Kevin Gausman, who recorded a no-decision in his first outing of the year against the Jays, allowing two runs off five hits with four walks and four K’s over five innings of work. Gausman has enjoyed plenty of success against the Yanks in the past, going 6-3 with a 1.92 ERA lifetime, but I think he’s going to get outmatched on the mound this evening. The Orioles have been winning games, but not blowing out teams. The Yanks’ bats looked a lot better last night and I expect that momentum to get carried over here as the Evil Empire looks to break its sluggish performance to open the season. Play on the Yankees. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Thunder v. Suns UNDER 225.5 | 99-120 | Win | 100 | 33 h 34 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Thunder/Suns (10:05 EST). The 45-33 OKC Thunder are in Phoenix to take on the 22-57 Suns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. OKC currently sits in sixth spot in the West, while the Suns are playing out the tail end of a miserable season. The Thunder come in off an ipressive 103-100 road win over the Grizzlies. Russell Westbrook had 45 points, nine boards and ten assists. He needs just one more Triple-Double to surpass Oscar Robertson on the all time list. Westbrook had eight three-pointers in that one and the Thunder shot 45 percent from range. But that’s hardly been the norm this year though, as note that OKC does rank as one of the worst three-point shooting teams in the country, hitting 33 percent. Phoenix comes in off a 120-111 loss to the Warriors. Devin Booker had 21 points, three boards, five assists and three steals. The Suns looked particularly horrible on the offensive end, shooting only 41.7 percent from the floor. They also turned the ball over 16 times. I’ll point out that OKC has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 31 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Phoenix has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after allowing 120 points or more. The Thunder look to close the regular season strong. They don’t need to push the pace of this one to win, so expect the visitors to control the tempo. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Mariners v. Angels -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER the LA Angels (10:05 EST). The Mariners opened the 2017 season with three straight losses to the Astros. The M’s lost by one run, two runs and three runs respectively. LA comes in off a 5-1 loss in Oakland last night and will be looking to bounce back behind the big bat of Mike Trout, who already has 12 total bases through three games and hitting .385 to open early. Seattle’s pitching has looked decent, but the offense has been a disaster, currently hitting .145 collectively with an on base percentage under .250 and a slugging percentage of just .218. The visitors send Yovani Gallardo to the hill, he was 6-8 with a 5.42 ERA for the Orioles last season. Gallardo had a horrible spring and in his final tune-up he’d allow seven earned runs off nine hits and two walks over 4.1 innings in a 12-2 Cactue League loss to the soft-hitting Padres. The home side counters with Jesse Chavez, who was 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA for the Dodgers last year. Chavez though comes in sharp right now, he’s been in a battle for the fifth spot in the rotation all spring and he would in the end earn the position by posting a 2.51 ERA with 12 K’s over 13.1 innings of work. I think Chavez will easily outduel his volatile counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting great value on the home side in this one. Play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Spurs v. Mavs OVER 190 | Top | 102-89 | Win | 100 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the over Spurs/Mavericks (8:30 EST). The 60-18 San Antonio Spurs are in Dallas to take on the 32-46 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. San Antonio had won three straight and eight of nine before a humbling 102-95 home loss to the Lakers on Wednesday, while Dallas lost its second straight and sixth of its last seven after a 112-101 road loss to the Clippers on Wednesday. The Spurs play with revenge here, as Dallas scored the 105-101 road upset in the last matchup on January 29th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. San Antonio averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 98.2. The Mavs average only 97.9 PPG and allow 100.5. San Antonio is resting its star players, which means that the backups will be looking to make a statement today and take advantage of the opportunity. Neither team has anything to play for, as Dallas is out of the playoffs, while San Antonio is locked into second in the West no matter what happens over the last few games. I don’t think much effort will be put onto the defensive end tonight. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | A's v. Rangers -145 | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). Oakland managed a 5-1 win over the Angels last night, splitting its season opening series with LA, 2-2. The Rangers are 0-3 to open the year though, as they fell 9-6 to the Tribe last night, after entering the ninth inning up 6-4. Texas has never made the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. The visitors hand the ball to Raul Alcantara. Last year he made five starts for the A’s and would go 1-3 with a 7.25 ERA and 1.567 WHIP over 22.1 innings of work, allowing a whopping nine homers in that span. The home side counters with AJ Griffin, who was 7-4 with a 5.07 ERA and 1.361 WHIP over 119 innings of work last year. Note that he’s 5-2 with a 4.31 ERA and 1.222 WHIP lieftime at Globe Life Park. Griffin faces his former team for the first time in his career, so clearly he’s going to be extra-amped up tonight. The Rangers as a whole will also be desperately trying to get off the schneid. Clearly Oakland will also be hungry for a win here, but I think Griffin has the advantage in this matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Heat v. Raptors UNDER 208.5 | 94-96 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Heat/Raptors (7:35 EST). The 38-40 Miami Heat are in Toronto to take on the 48-31 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Heat broke a two-game slide with a 112-99 victory in Charlotte on Wednesday, while Toronto rallied to beat the Pistons 105-102 on the road for its eighth win in its last ten games on the same night. Note that Toronto has taken two of three in the season series this year, which includes a 101-84 victory in the most recent matchup on March 23rd. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Miami is in a dog fight for the final playoff spot in the East. The Heat only average 102.9 PPG, but make up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 101.9. Clearly Miami can ill afford to get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Raptors, who average 107.1 PPG. The Heat will have to do what they do best and that’s play tough, full court defense from start to finish if they have any hopes whatsoever in scoring the upset this evening. Toronto is ranked seventh in scoring defense in conceding 103.1 PPG. The Raptors have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but after their epic come-from-behind win over the Pistons and with road games at New York and Cleveland to close out the regular season, Toronto could no doubt be caught a little flat-footed and “gassed” tonight. I’ll point out that the under is 8-1 in Miami’s last nine following a straight-up win over more than ten points and 4-1 in its last five when playing on one days rest, while Toronto has seen the under go 6-2 in its last eight after allowing 102 points or more in its previous outing. I’m expecting an all out war and for this one to fall under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-07-17 | Braves v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the under Braves/Pirates (1:05 EST). This is the National League, where pitchers are required to hit. Nine runs is a lot in the Senior Circuit and I have a hard time seeing these sometimes offensively challenged clubs plating that many against these white hot starters. Both Mike Foltynewicz of the Braves and Ivan Nova of the Pirates come in off fantastic spring showings and I believe that momentum will get carried over here. Foltynewicz was 9-5 with a 4.31 ERA last season, but did not give up a single run with a 2.00 ERA over 18 innings along with a 1.22 WHIP and 14:5 K:BB ratio this spring, while Nova posted a 1.29 ERA in 14 spring innings along with an impressive 13:1 K:BB ratio. I’m expecting these “under the radar” hurlers to battle into the latter frames and for this one to ultimately fall under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-17 | Wolves v. Blazers -6 | Top | 98-105 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:30 EST). The 31-46 Minnesota Timberwolves are in Portland to take on the 38-40 Blazers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. With just four games to go, Portland has a one-game lead over Denver for the eighth spot. The Blazers will be desperate to maintain that position obviously, but also to get back on track after a two-game slide, one of which came by one point at the hands of these very Timberwolves in Minnesota on Monday night. Suffice it to say, it’s payback time on Thursday! Minnesota has won three of its last five, but has nothing to play for other than spoiler now. And that can only provide so much motivation for so long before everyone just throws in the towel. This is what I envision happening this evening as Portland risks life and limb tonight to get off the schneid with a decent full four-quarter effort. And if history is any precedence, then the Blazers have to be loving their chances today as they’ve won 20 of the last 22 meetings at home against Minnesota: “We’re ready to go home and finish the season out strong and we know that we control what happens,” Portland’s star point guard Damian Lillard said last night. I’ll point out that the Wolves are just 1-6-1 ATS in their last eight on the road and just 1-6 ATS in their last seven when playing on one days rest, while the Trailblazers are 6-0 ATS in their last six when playing on one days rest and 4-0 ATS in their last four at home against clubs with losing road records. I think the Wolves check out of this one early and expect Portland to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-17 | Blue Jays -124 v. Rays | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Divisional Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:10 EST). Toronto has been the top team in the AL East the last two season’s, but with Edwin Encarnacion leaving to the Tribe in the offseason, many have speculated that the team would take a step back this year. The Jays are still stacked, with Josh Donaldson, Jose Bautista, Kevin Pillar and other sluggers, but so far the production just hasn’t been there after the first two games as Toronto comes town 0-2 after two straight setbacks in Baltimore to open the 2017 campaign. Both were close, low-scoring affairs that we’re decided in the latter frames (in extra innings in the first game). The Rays took two of three from the Yankees to open the year, but I think they’ll stumble here against this highly focused Jays team. The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman who enters the new season off an impressive WBC classic in which he led Team USA to its first ever win in the event. Stroman had an up-and-down 2016, looking brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. But that said, recent performance is often the best indicator we have when trying to properly assess starting pitching and in this case, Stroman comes in on top form and I’m expecting that momentum and confidence to be carried over here. The home side counters with Blake Snell, who will get his first full year in the majors. Last season he got 19 starts and finished 6-8 with a 3.54 ERA. Will Snell dominate this year? Experts agree that a .500 season would be considered a huge success for the southpaw. Stroman is the correct call here. I love this play and expect the underachieving Jays to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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