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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-19-17 | Nationals -142 v. Braves | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -142 | 30 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washignton Nationals (7:35 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (3-1, 2.47 ERA) who allowed one run off four scattered hits while striking out five over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to the Phillies on Sunday. The Braves counter with RA Dickey (3-3, 4.22) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out just one over seven innings in a loss to Miami on Sunday. So far Dickey has given up between two and four runs in each of his seven starts this year. Both starters’ peripherals suggest regression is imminent, but I’ll point out that the Nationals are 16-8 (+3.8 units) against division opponents already this season and 23-13 (+4.2 units) against right-handed starters, while Atlanta is just 7-12 (-3.1 units) against the division and only 30-55 (-15.1 units) in its last 88 against southpaws. I like Gonzalez to outduel his counterpart and I think the Nats also have a huge advantage at the plate. With ATL dealing with key injury issues at the moment, lay the price with confidence. Play on Washignton. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-17 | Angels v. Mets -145 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). Both teams had a day off yesterday. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors Jacob DeGrom and the home side. The visitors send the volatile Ricky Nolasco (2-2, 4.34 ERA) to the hill, he’s coming off a no-decision against Detroit on Saturday, giving up three earned runs off five hits and four walks over six innings. The 34-year-old has now given up two home runs in each of his last three starts. The four walks represented a season high. Note that Nolasco was an unimpressive 5-7 with a 4.53 ERA on the road last year. DeGrom (2-1, 4.07) comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off eight hits with one walk and eight K’s over seven innings in a fortunate no-decision againt Milwaukee on Sunday. DeGrom owns a pedestrian 1.36 WHIP at the moment, but his 67:20 K/W ratio over 48.2 innings of work is impressive. Note that DeGrom was 5-3 with a 2.11 ERA at home last year. I’ll also point out that LA is just 15-16 (-1.5 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is 51-32 (+3.2 units) the last two seasons as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-17 | Yankees v. Royals -105 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). I like the home side to bounce back here after last night’s 11-7 defeat to the “Evil Empire.” The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (2-2, 4.19 ERA) who gave up four runs off eight hits and one walk over six innings in a loss to Houston on Friday. Montgomery has just two quality starts out of his last four tries. The Royals counter with ace Danny Duffy (2-3, 3.38) who gave up two runs off eight hits and a walk while stirking out six over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Orioles on Friday. Duffy has now posted six quality starts in his last eight trips to the hill. Note that Duffy was 7-0 with a 3.57 ERA at home last season. I’ll also point out that New York is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after scoring ten or more runs, while KC is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three after allowing ten or more runs. I think Duffy will easily outduel his counterpart here, play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-17 | Ducks v. Predators OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the over Ducks/Predators (8:00 EST). Nashville has been the stingiest team in the playoffs this year, conceding just 1.76 GPG thus far. The Ducks are the highest scoring team in the league in the postseason, averaging over 3 GPG. But Anaheim has also been one of the worst on the defensive end in conceding 2.96 per contest. Anaheim has been brilliant in this spot for bettors over the years, going 5-2 in its last seven when trailing in a playoff series. But I have a hard time betting against Nashville right now, as it’s one of the best in front of the home town crowd. Clearly the Predators have the better goaltending in Pekka Rinne, as the Ducks’ John Gibson has been nothing more than “serviceable” so far in the playoffs, going 8-5 with a 2.74 GAA and .915 save percentage. I’ll point out though that the Ducks have seen the total go over the number in three of four already this year when trailing in a playoff series, while the Predators have seen the total sail above the posted number in three of their last four after allowing one goal or less in their previous contest. With Anaheim pushing the pace from start to finish, all signs do indeed point to a higher-scoring affair in Game 4. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-17 | Blue Jays v. Braves UNDER 8 | 9-0 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Jays/Braves under (7:35 EST). After last night’s explosive 8-4 Braves win last night, I’m expecting a much lower-scoring “pitchers duel” on Thursday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (3-2, 3.33 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off eight hits and two walks in a victory over Seattle on Saturday, finishing with nine K’s as well. It was his second straight quality start. Note that he’s already 2-0 with a 3.44 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with ace Julio Teheran (3-3, 4.08) who comes in off his best outing of the season, going six scoreless against the Marlins on Saturday, allowing just three hits and to walks while striking out four in the victory. Teheran now has five quality starts out of eight trips to the mound this year. Note that he owned a 3.59 ERA at home last season. I’ll point out that Toronto has seen the total go under the number in five if six already this year after three or more consecutive losses, while Atlanta has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four after scoring eight or more runs in its previous contest. “Recent performance” is often the best indicator we have to properly assess starting pitching and with these two hurlers coming in on top form, everything does indeed point to a duel. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-17 | Brewers v. Padres -105 | 4-2 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 22 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (3:40 EST). I like the Padres to bounce back here after last night’s 3-1 loss. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Davies (4-2, 5.80 ERA) who scored a win over the Mets on Saturday despite giving up four runs off seven hits while striking out only two over five innings of work. Davies has looked pretty good of late after a couple of disastrous starts to open the year. Note that he posted a pedestrian 4.39 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Jarred Cosart (0-1, 3.24) who has given up three runs (one earned) over 7.2 innings of work spanning two starts for the Padres this year. I’ll point out though that Milwaukee is just 5-7 (-1.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while San Diego is 27-16 (+3.9 units) the last two seasons as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. All signs point to a bounce back, play on the Padres. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 219.5 | Top | 117-104 | Loss | -108 | 37 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST). Cleveland hasn’t played since May 7th. So will rest lead to rust? Probably not, but it’s not too hard to imagine the Cavaliers coming out a bit flat to begin this game and that’s likely all we need to push this one under this sky-high number. Boston could be poised for a bit of a letdown here itself after its exhausting seven game series win over the Wizards. Note that the Cavs took three of four regualr season meetings this year between the teams. It’s also intereting to note that in the Celtics’ win over Washington, it was the home team that won every game in that series. Boston has averaged 107.1 PPG in the postseason (the Cavs have averaged 114.5), but so far it’s been the Celtics’ defense which has been the standout, ranked 8th in conceding 103.4 per game. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 23 this year against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly 20 of 35 this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106-plus points per game. I think we’re going to see a slower-paced Game 1, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-17 | Penguins v. Senators +111 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 111 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ottawa Senators (8:00 EST). I played the Senators +190 in Game 1, but came up short with my play on the “over” in Game 2. I look to get back on track here in Game 3 as I think the home side is being severely undervalued in this spot. Pittsburgh has so far looked far from dominant in this series. The Sens took Game 1, 2-1 in OT and then Pittsburgh won Game 2 by a score of 1-0. Ottawa is looking great at this point, it now has home ice advantage and I think it can make the most if in Game 3. Pittsburgh has two significant injuries as well as both Bryan Rust and Justin Schultz got injured in the first period of Game 2. Patric Hornqvist is also a game-time decision. The Senators failed to score for the first time in 36 contests. Suffice it to say, I think the team gets back on track tonight. And I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three after shutting out its opponent, while Ottawa is already a perfect 2-0 (+2.6 units) this year when tied in a playoff series. I think the Senators offer great value at home in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-17 | Phillies v. Rangers -142 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). I like the Rangers to build off yesterday’s 5-1 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (0-0, 2.81 ERA) who gave up three runs off nine hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Mariners on Wednesday. Eflin was 3-5 with a 5.54 ERA in his rookie year, including just 2-3 with a 6.45 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Andrew Cashner (0-3, 2.43) who went six frames in a victory over Oakland on Friday, giving up one earned run off five hits and a walk, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. I’ll point out that Cashner posted a very respectable 3.11 ERA in all home contests last year. Note that Philadelhia is just 6-14 (-4.6 units) on the road this season, while Texas is 14-8 (+5.1 units) at home. I’ll give Cashner the slight nod in this matchup and the Rangers a big nod at the plate and with those two factors working in our favor, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-17 | Rays v. Indians -142 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -142 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Cleveland Indians (12:10 EST). I think the home side will bounce back this afternoon after yesterday’s 6-4 setback. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb (3-3, 3.65 ERA) who gave up four runs off four hits and three walks over 6.1 innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Friday. Cobb has been hit or miss all season so far, note that he posted a horrible 6.89 ERA on the road in his limited time last year. The Indians counter with Josh Tomlin (2-4, 5.87), who gave up one run off six hits and one walk while striking out seven over eight innings in an unfortunate setback to Minnesota on Friday. Tomlin has turned the corner after a disastrous opening to the 2017 campaign, having held the opposition to one earned run in each of his last two outings. I’ll also point out that Tampa is just 5-10 (-5 units) this season in all “day” games, while Cleveland is 8-4 (+1.6 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-17 | Dodgers -148 v. Giants | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -148 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:15 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe and I look for the hard-hitting Dodgers to avenge yesterday’s blowout loss. The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (1-1, 3.38 ERA) who has looked decent in his limited time this year, starting two games and pitching eight innings, allowing three earned runs off seven hits in that span. Hill most recently threw five shutout frames in a rehab game at High-A Rancho Cucamonga on Wednesday and note that he was 8-1 with a 1.89 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Ty Blach (0-2, 4.88) who has been hit or miss all season, most recently coming off a decent outing against the Reds on Thursday, holding them to two runs off five hits over seven innings, walking one and striking out two in the 3-2 loss. Note that he owns a poor 2.3 K/9 strikeout rate so far this season. Blach has had some success against the Dodgers already this year, but note that LA is already 11-5 (+3 units) this season following a loss, while the Giants are only 4-11 (-8.6 units) following a victory. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-17 | Spurs v. Warriors UNDER 210 | Top | 100-136 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Spurs/Warriors (9:00 EST). The Spurs had a 20 point lead at half time in Game 1, but Kawhi Leonard was injured in the third quarter and San Antonio would predictably fall apart in the Warriors’ eventual 113-111 victory. The Spurs rolled to a massive victory in Game 6 over the Houston Rockets in the last round without Leonard in the line-up, but I think San Antonio will struggle with offensive consistency today. Their main option now will be big man Marcus Aldridge, who has been playing a lot better of late. But the Warriors know this and they have a deep/talented bench of guys to throw at him all game long. Golden State has a golden opportunity to send a real dagger into the hearts of Spurs fans tonight with a resounding perfomance and before the series shifts to San Antonio. Both teams have been playing to higher-scoring affairs in the playoffs, as San Antonio has seen the O/U go 10-2, while Golden State has seen it go 6-3. But I think Game 2 of the Western Conference Finals definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. San Antonio can now ill afford to get into a “track meet” with the Warriors and expect to win this one, so the visitors will be looking to slow down the pace and control the tempo. And that means half-court sets on offense. Also note that despite the high-scoring Game 1 victory, the Warriors have seen the total go under the number in nine of their last 13 conference final games, while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after giving up 112 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-17 | Red Sox +105 v. Cardinals | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (8:15 EST). I like the hard-hitting Red Sox to take Game 1 of this interleague series. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 2.80 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits while striking out five in a win over Milwaukee on Thursday. To go along with his 2.80 ERA, Rodriguez also sports a very nice 1.13 WHIP and 10.7 K/9 with a 30.3 strikeout percentage. The home side counters with Lance Lynn (4-1, 2.75) who surprised everyone with a nearly flawless start to the 2017 campaign, but who now comes into this one off his worst outing of the season, allowing four runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over four innings in a win over Miami on Wednesday. Lynn struggled with his command, throwing just 61 of 104 pitches for strikes. I’ll point out that Boston is 12-5 (+5.8 units) this season following a loss and already 6-3 (+2.8 units) in all interleague games, while St. Louis is just 2-7 (-6.8 units) when playing with a day off and only 5-6 (-2.1 units) against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on Boston Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-17 | Yankees -116 v. Royals | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 44 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (8:15 EST). I like the hard-hitting visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia (2-2, 5.77 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Tuesday. All five runs came in the second frame. Sabathia has so far been hit-or-miss in 2017, note that he was 6-4 with a 3.26 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with the volatile Jason Hammel (1-4, 5.97) who was rocked for seven runs off 13 hits and a walk over seven innings in a 12-1 loss to the Rays on Wednesday. Like Sabathia, Hammel had a pretty good 2016 (finishing 15-10 with a 3.83 ERA), but just like his veteran counterpart today, he’s also been a train-wreck this year. I’ll point out though that the Yanks are 16-11 (+2.9 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Royals are only 4-5 (-1.1 units) against southpaws. I think we’re getting great value on New York in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-17 | Ducks v. Predators UNDER 5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 120 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Ducks/Predators (8:00 EST). I took Anaheim in Game 1 and lost and then came back with the Ducks -1.5 +275 on the PUCK-LINE in Game 2. When I released that pick, I had a very good feeling that the team could score an empty netter and that’s exactly what happened. Perhaps a little too close for comfort, but regardless, it now goes down as likely my most legendary NHL playoff release of all time. In Game 3 I’m expecting the Predators to do what they do best and that’s to lock this one down from the opening face-off until the final horn. Nashville comes into this one ranked as the No. 1 defensive team in the playoffs by allowing just 1.75 GPG. Rinne allowed four goals in a game for the first time since March 13th in Game 2, but there’s no reason to think he’ll have back-to-back lapses though (Rinne is now 9-3 with a 1.62 GAA in the postseason.) The Ducks have been good offensively, ranked No. 2 and they’ve been poor defensively so far in the playoffs. But note that Anaheim has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four after a win by two goals or more, while Nashville has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after a loss by two goals or more. I think the writing is on the wall and a lower-scoring goaltenders battle is in the cards. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 105-115 | Win | 100 | 59 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Celtics (8:00 EST). This has been a back-and-forth series. So far the home team has won every game “straight-up,” but the Celtics were able to cover the spread in Game 6 despite the setback. I think the Celtics are the better overall team and have a clear advantage in this situation on their home floor and in the end, I expect them to find a way to get the job done. Washington shot only 43 percent from the floor and was just 5 of 24 from range in Game 6, while also hitting only 13 of 21 from the charity stripe. Bradley Beal was a standout with 33 points, while John Wall added 26. Boston had a chance to wrap this up in six games, but was sunk by the last second shot by Wall. Avery Bradley and Isaiah Thomas had 27 points apiece in the setback. I’ll point out though that Washington is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and 0-6 ATS in its last six road games against teams with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Boston is 4-0 ATS in its last four at home and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory. Boston fought tooth and nail for the entire regular season so that it could ensure home court throughout the playoffs and in pivotal Game 7 scenarios just like this. So here we are. I think the Celtics pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-17 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -145 | 34 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is the “over” Sens/Pens (8:00 EST). I had a play on the Senators +190 in Game 1 and Ottawa would go on to take the contest 2-1 in overtime. It was a tight game and really it could have gone either way. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much more wide open affair in Game 2 as Pittsburgh will be looking to do what it does best and that’s push the pace from start to finish. Ottawa will be forced to match tempo if it has any shot at another upset. The Senators were a solid road team in the regular season, going 22-19 away from friendly confines. So far they’re 5-2 in the playoffs (also interesting to note that Ottawa is 6-1 in OT games in the postseason thus far). Sens’ goaltender Craig Anderson is now 9-4 with a 2.37 GAA and .917 save percentage. Ottawa is ranked seventh in the playoffs in scoring with an average of 2.77 GPG. Pittsburgh is ranked No. 1 on offense in the playoffs with an average of 3.23 GPG, but it looked stalled for most of Game 1. I like the Pens to get untracked here though, note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last five after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest. And note that Ottawa has seen the total go over the number in its last three after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest. Pens’ netminder Marc-Andre Fleury looked shaky in Game 1 and owns an unspectacular 2.49 GAA in the postseason to this point. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-17 | Rays +155 v. Indians | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* AMERICAN LEAGUE UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH is on the Tampa Bay Rays (6:10 EST). I think Chris Archer and the Rays have much better than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Archer (3-1, 3.04 ERA) comes in off his strongest performance of the year, going eight scoreless while striking out 11 in a 12-1 win over the Royals on Wednesday. He’s now posted back-to-back starts with 11 K’s. And note that he’s posted a respectable 3.20 ERA on the road so far this year. The home side counters with Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 1.86) who also comes in off a strong outing, going seven shutout innings against Toronto on Tuesday, walking none and striking out seven in the process. At first glance Carrasco’s numbers are sparkling, but his .211 BABIP suggest some regression is imminent. Note that he owned a pedestrian 4.29 ERA at home last year. I’ll point out as well that Tampa Bay is already 4-2 (+3.8 units) this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland is only 7-8 (-6.6 units) in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-17 | Predators v. Ducks -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 275 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Anaheim Ducks on the “puck-line” (7:30 EST). This is do-or-die for the Ducks, as a 2-0 hole heading back to Nashville would likely be just too much for the team to overcome for a second straight series after the Oilers did the same thing in the last round. Anaheim had its chance, but came up short in the OT period in Game 1. In Game 5 beween the Penguins and Capitals, I took Washington -1.5 +170 on the PUCK-LINE. The Capitals would go on to take that one 4-2. And just like in that one, I expect the Ducks not only to win this game tonight, but to win big. Clearly it won’t be easy, as Nashville is currently the No. 1 ranked defense in the playoffs behind Pekka Rinne, who is 9-2 in the postseason with a 1.41 GAA. Ducks’ netminder John Gibson is 7-4 with a 2.78 GAA in the playoffs so far. He made a career-high 43 saves in Game 1. The Predators own the No. 1 defense, but Anaheim is no slouch on the offensive end, it comes into this one ranked No. 2 with an average of 3.08 GPG. And I’ll point out that despite the Game 1 victory, the road team is still only 2-5 in the last seven meetings between these clubs, while Anaheim is 5-1 in its last six after scoring two goals or less in its previous game. Also note that the Ducks are 7-3 in their last ten when playing on one days rest. I like Anaheim to win this game and I think it’s worth laying the 1.5 goals for the massive payout. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-17 | Houston Astros - Game #2 v. New York Yankees - Game #2 -130 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Yankees (7:35 EST). Houston took Game 1 of this series on Friday and yesterday’s game was postponed. This is the second game of a double-header and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Masahiro Tanaka and the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (4-2, 3.63 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and four walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a win over the Braves on Tuesday. Morton is starting to show “cracks in the armor,” as he’d go on throw just 48 of his 84 pitches for strikes. It’s hard to get a read on Morton at this point, as he’s looked quite good at times and pretty poor in others. Tanaka (5-1, 4.36) gave up four runs off ten hits while walking one and striking out six over seven innings in a 10-4 win over the Red Sox on Monday. It was Tanaka’s fifth straight victory and he’s now given up just one walk combined over his last three outings. While his 4.36 ERA is pedestrian, his 2.3 W/9 ratio is spectacular. Note that Tanaka was 7-1 with a 3.86 ERA at home last season. I think the value in this matchup is on Tanaka and the home side, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-17 | Spurs +10.5 v. Warriors | Top | 111-113 | Win | 100 | 58 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the San Antonio Spurs (3:30 EST). If the Spurs have any hopes of pulling off an upset in this series, I think they obviously have to gain a split in Golden State. And of the two games, I believe Game 1 is the best opportunity for an underdog to steal one. Last night I had a play on the +190 Senators in their Game 1 upset over the Penguins in the NHL. While I will stop short in calling for an outright upset in this one, I do expect San Antonio to throw its best punch in Game 1 and I look for it to keep this one competitive until the final moments (remember, San Antonio started the season off with an opening night win in Golden State this year.) The Spurs last played on Thursday, while the Warriors have been off since Monday. Will rest lead to rust? Probably not, but the extra few days off has also been beneficial for San Antonio, as top scorer Kawhi Leonard who sat out the Game 6 blowout over the Rockets, has been given the green light to go in this one. Clearly it won’t be easy. The Warriors are favored for a reason as they have an offense which is almost impossible to stop. The Spurs though did completely stop the Rockets’ James Harden in Game 6 though, holding him to a season-low ten points. San Antonio has a flexible defense that’s built around trying to stop Golden State in the playoffs. So here we go. The Spurs had the No. 1 defense in the regular season and the Warriors had the No. 1 offense. I’ll point out that San Antonio is 20-15 ATS this year following a win by ten points or more, while Golden State is just 2-3 ATS this season when playing with three or more days rest. Surely the Spurs could have run the table on the Jazz as well. And likely the Rockets could have taken at least one game from the Warriors if these teams had switched second round opponents. Regardless, I think San Antonio is not getting nearly enough respect here. Play on the Spurs. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-17 | Houston Astros - Game #1 v. New York Yankees - Game #1 -138 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 20 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST). Houston has taken the first two games of this series, but I like the Yanks to bounce back in the third game. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (1-1, 5.64 ERA) who gave up three runs on four hits (including two dingers) and four walks while striking out one in a fortunate 5-3 win over the Angels on Sunday. So far Fiers has given up a major-league leading 14 home runs over 30.1 innings of work. Note that he wasn’t particularly effective on the road last year, posting a poor 4.99 ERA. The home side counters with Luis Severino (2-2, 3.40) who gave up one run off four hits while walking one and striking out nine over seven innings in an unforuntate no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. Severino now owns an impressive 45:7 K/W ratio in 39.2 innings spanning six starts this year. I think the day off yesterday benefits the home side more in this situation, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-17 | Senators +190 v. Penguins | Top | 2-1 | Win | 190 | 56 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* TOP PLAY is the Ottawa Senators (7:00 EST). I was 6-1 in Pittsburgh’s seven games series win over Washington. The Penguins looked great at times in that series and really poor in others. Ottawa needed six games to get by Boston and another six to beat New York to get this point. These teams played three times in the regular season and the Senators won two. One player to keep your eyes on for Ottawa is defensman Erik Karlsson, who has 13 points thus far in the postseason. Goaltender Craig Anderson is 8-4 with a 2.49 GAA in the playoffs to go along with a .914 save percentage and one shutout. The Pens’ Marc-Andre Fleury is 8-4 with a 2.55 GAA and .927 save percentage in the poseason. I think the Sens offer a lot more than just a punchers chance in Game 1. I think Pittsburgh comes in a bit complacent and the hungry visitors take advantage. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-17 | Braves v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the over Braves/Marlins (7:10 EST). These teams exploded for 12 runs in Atlanta’s 8-4 victory yesterday and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another “slugfest” this evening as well. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (2-3, 4.69 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off nine hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Saturday. Teheran is struggling this year as he’s now given up a whopping 19 runs over his last 21.1 innings of work with just 15 K’s. To go along with his ballooned 4.69 ERA, he also sports a 1.51 WHIP. The home side counters with the volatile Edinson Volquez (0-4, 4.71) who returns from the DL after tossing a bullpen on Monday. To go along with his ballooned 4.71 ERA this year, Volquez also owns an atrocoius 1.81 WHIP over 28.2 innings of work. Note that he owned a 5.11 ERA at home last year. I’ll point out that Atlatna has seen the total go over the number in 20 of 31 against right-handed starters this year, while Miami has seen the total fly above the posted number in 12 of 19 this season following a loss. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-17 | Twins v. Indians -145 | 4-1 | Loss | -145 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (4:10 EST). I had a play on the Tribe yesterday and they’d unfortuantely fall 1-0. With what I believe to be the clearly superior starter on the mound for it today though, I like Cleveland to bounce back this evening. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jose Berrios (0-0, 0.00) who makes his season debut this afternoon. Berrios was dominant over five Triple-A outings, allowing five runs spanning six starts, a performance which gave him another shot at the big show. To say Berrios struggled in his rookie year though would be a bit of an understatement, as he’d post an 8.02 ERA and 1.87 WHIP over 14 starts. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (1-0, 0.00) who went six innings of scoreless one hit ball, walking four and striking out five in a spot-start victory over the Royals on Sunday. Before getting the call up on Saturday, Clevinger had posted a tiny 1.50 ERA and 1.10 WHIP to go along with 32 K’s over six starts in the minors. Note that he was 2-1 with a respectable 3.54 ERA in all home apperances last season. I’ll also point out that Minnesota is just 7-10 (-3.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while Cleveland is 7-3 (+1.2 units) in the same position. I’m banking on Clevinger outdueling his counterpart, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-17 | Predators v. Ducks -110 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Anaheim Ducks (9:00 EST). The Predators advanced by beating the Blues 3-1 on Sunday, to take that series 4-2. The Ducks needed seven games to get by the Oilers, most recently a 2-1 win on Wednesday night in Game 7. These teams played three times in the regular season and Anaheim won two, including a 4-3 shootout victory in the last matchup on March 7th. Nashville has looked pretty stout so far in the playoffs, having allowed a total of 14 goals over ten games. Pekka Rinne owns a 1.37 GAA and .951 save percentage in the postseason. The Predators have been the best on the defensive end in the playoffs, conceding just 1.4 GPG. But the Ducks are in the Conference Final for a reason as well, as they enter as the second-highest scoring team in the postseason with an average of 3.2 GPG. Is John Gibson as good as Rinne? Probably not. But he’s been clutch at times in the playoffs already and he’ll surely benefit from playing in front of the home town crowd tonight. I’ll point out as well that Nashville is just 2-6 (-4.9 units) this year when playing with three or more days of rest, while Anaheim is 3-1 (+2.1 units) in its last four after giving up one or less goals in its previous contest. Anaheim took two of three in the regular season and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done in Game 1 too. Play on the Ducks. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-17 | Orioles v. Royals +108 | 2-3 | Win | 108 | 10 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). Dylan Bundy has been hot of late for the Orioles, but I like Kansas City to build off its 6-0 win in Tampa Bay last night and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Bundy (5-1, 2.17 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits while striking out three over six innings in a win over the White Sox on Saturday. So far he’s been spot on this year, but I’ll point out that he owned a poor 5.21 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Danny Duffy (2-3, 3.50) who has gotten progressively better with each outing in 2017, coming in off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off six hits and two walks while striking out two over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to Cleveland on Sunday. Note that Duffy was 7-0 with a 3.57 ERA at home last season. I’ll point out that Baltimore is already just 2-3 (-1.5 units) this season with a day off, while KC has been turning things around of late, having already gone 6-5 (+2 units) in the month of May. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-17 | Padres v. White Sox -125 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 49 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST). I think this is a bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.26 ERA) who has been hit or miss all year and who comes in off a no-decision against the Dodgers on Friday, allowing one run off four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings. Chacin though is likely the biggest “Jekyl And Hyde” hurler in all of MLB right now, giving up just one total run in three home outings, compared to 23 runs over four road starts. Note that Chacin was just 2-6 with a 5.85 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Miguel Gonzalez (3-2, 3.18) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to the Orioles on Friday. Gonzalez has now allowed three or fewer runs in three of his last four starts and note that he owned a very respectable 3.29 ERA in all “night” games a year ago. In my opinion, Gonzalez should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-17 | Celtics v. Wizards UNDER 216 | Top | 91-92 | Win | 100 | 33 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Celtics/Wizards (8:00 EST). I took Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series before then taking the Wizards in Game’s 3 and 4. I’d then lose however with the Wizards in Game 5, as Boston bounced back big time in front of the home town crowd. Will this pattern continue in Game 6? I’m skeptical, but regardless, I think the conditions are right for a slower-paced under this evening. Boston is ready to take on the Cavaliers, but it’ll have to win in the nation’s capital tonight, or risk a winner takes all Game 7 back at home. The Celtics shot 52.9 percent from the floor in Game 5 and I simply can’t see the now desperate Wizards playing so horribly on the defensive end again. Washington’s entire season boils down to this moment. Boston though played smothering defense in Game 5, holding the Wizards to only 38.5 percent from the floor, including just 7 of 29 from range. The C’s will now look to duplicate that performance in Game 6. I’ll also point out that Boston has in fact seen the total go under the number in 18 of 30 this year against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three after allowing 115 points or more. When you add it all up, I think this number is just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-17 | Twins v. Indians -131 | 1-0 | Loss | -131 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). The Indians had Thursday off and while Ervin Santana has been hot of late, I still think that the Twins are poised for a letdown here after they held on for a 7-6 win in Chicago just last night. Santana (5-1, 1.72 ERA) actually comes in off his worst outing of the year and I think is primed for another letdown here as well (the Red Sox blasted him for six earned runs, including four home runs over six frames.) I’m not overreacting to one poor start, but I do think this is a bad spot for Minnesota regardless. The home side counters with Josh Tomlin (2-3, 7.12) who comes in off his best outing of the year, giving up one run off three hits while striking out three over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Kansas City on Saturday. After a couple of disastrous starts to open 2017, Tomlin has settled down and has posted quality outings in three of his last four tries. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five against right-handed starters, while Cleveland is 12-6 (+3.9 units) in the same position this year. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-17 | Reds v. Giants -128 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -128 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think this one favors Ty Blach and the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Bronson Arroyo (3-2, 6.53 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a victory over these very Giants last Friday. Arroyo for the most part has been completely erratic this season and I’m expecting some predictable regression this evening. Blach is 0-2 with a 5.66 ERA and gave up the ten runs in his team’s loss throwing opposite Arroyo last week. Blach has a chance to redeem himself here and I think he’s going to be able to outduel his suspect vetrean counterpart. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 114-75 | Win | 100 | 37 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the under Spurs/Rockets (8:00 EST). I had a play on the “over” in Game 5 and obviously feel a bit fortunate to win that one as the team’s would need overtime to barely push the total above the closing number. It seemed like the “over” would be a lock after three quarters, but the teams combined for only 31 points in the fourth frame. San Antonio is on the verge of clinching this series and will look to once again slow down James Harden as much as possible. Harden is averaging 30.3 PPG in the playoffs. The Spurs had the lead for most of the game (86-85 after three quarters) last time out, but trailed by five with just 2:34 to play. It was back and forth the entire way and eventually led to Spurs’ veteran Manu Ginobili making a huge block on Harden at the buzzer in OT. There’s a lot of pressure on both of these teams. For Harden and company, it’s the same old story, they’re viewed as not being talented, deep and strong enough to seriously contend in the West and until they can get over the hump, they’ll continue to carry that monkey on their collective backs. For the Spurs it’s an entirely different kind of pressure. A legendary head coach which is trying desperately to match his remaining pieces together and produce a winning result. San Antonio though has looked old and susceptible at times in the postseason, with still yet unproven big man LaMarcus Aldridge trying to fill some very big shoes and the very real absence of veteran point guard Tony Parker right now. I think the pressure is getting to everyone in this series and the fourth quarter of Game 5 showed that. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-17 | Astros +113 v. Yankees | 3-2 | Win | 113 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (7:05 EST). I think this is great value on arguably the hottest pitcher on the planet right now. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (5-0, 1.88 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Friday. The home side counters with Michael Pineda (3-1, 3.12) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. Pineda has been solid to start the year, note though that he was just 4-5 with a 4.72 ERA at home last season. Pineda gave up two solo home runs against the Cubs and while he’s been sharp, I think that Keuchel is on a completely different level right now. I’m banking on Keuchel outdueling Pineda, play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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05-11-17 | Mariners v. Blue Jays -130 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). Toronto has won two series in a row and in my opinion, this opening night matchup against the Mariners also works in its favor. The visitors hand the ball to Chase De Jong (0-2, 6.75 ERA) who makes his third start of his career today, getting crushed by the Indians in his first outing, only to then rebound against the Rangers last week, giving up one run over six innings. So far he has six K’s and five walks over 13.1 innings of major league work. The home side counters with Marco Estrada (1-2, 3.14) who comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Estrada wasn’t at his best, but note that he came into that one having given up just four earned runs over his previous four starts combined. Toronto is starting to find ways to win and I think can full advantage of this mismatch. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-17 | Pirates +205 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:10 EST). Is LA a “better” team than Pittsburgh? Most would say yes and certainly their win/loss records would agree with that, as the Dodgers are 19-14, while the Pirates are 14-19. I don’t however think Kenta Maeda should be instilled as such a massive favorite against Chad Kuhl, who I think can match Maeda inning for inning. And in a scenario like that, I think the value clearly swings to the underdog. Kuhl (1-2, 5.54 ERA) had his last start cut short due to rain, giving up no runs off two hits while also striking out two against the Brewers on Friday. Kuhl has had one disastrous start this season, but so far he’s held opponents to two or fewer earned runs in four of his five trips to the hill. And he has to be feeling confident tonight as note that last season he was a solid 3-1 with a 2.72 ERA on the road. Maeda (2-2, 5.81) gave up two runs off three hits and three walks while striking out eight over five innings in a no-decision against the Padres on Friday. Maeda has looked a lot better after a rocky start to the 2017 campaign, but I still think he’s being completely over-valued in this spot. And I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is already 2-1 (+1.4 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses, while LA is just 8-10 (-7.2 units) this year following a victory. After yesterday’s 4-3 setback, I think Kuhl and the Pirates offer tremendous value in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-17 | Wizards +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-123 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washignton Wizards (8:00 EST). I played on Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 and then backed Washington in Game’s 3 and 4. So far home floor advantage has meant everything in this series, but I think that changes tonight. The Wizards made some key adjustments over the last two games that I think the Celtics will continue to struggle with. And I also believe that Boston star Isaiah Thomas is much more mentally burnt than even he realizes. Thomas’ sister was tragically killed in a car accident the night before his first round series with the Bulls. The Celtics went on to lose the first two games of that series at home, but then Thomas was able to recover a bit from the initial shock and he used his anger to fuel his team to six straight victories. Boston needed two epic come-from behind efforts in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series, but with Thomas once again starting to struggle, I have a hard time seeing the C’s keeping pace with the high-flying Wizards in Game 5. I’ll point out as well that Washington is a near-perfect 8-1 ATS in its last nine when playing on two days rest, while Boston is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 in the same situation. I think the duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal continues to be just too much for the Celtics to handle and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. It’s a perfect storm of factor working in favor of of the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-17 | Penguins v. Capitals -170 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -170 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT 7 CLUB is on the Washington Capitals (7:30 EST). If you’ve followed me for any length of time, you know that I rarely make selections on “money line” games of greater than -150. Occassionaly I do, but almost never. After taking the underdog through the first four games of this series (Pens, Pens, Caps, Pens), then Washington -1.5 +170 on the “puck line” in Game 5 and then once again on the underdog Capitals in Game 6, I have no issues at all in laying this steeper price on the home side in Game 7. This has been a back-and-forth series, but Washington has clearly gained the momentum back. Pittsburgh has up to this point been getting unbelievable goaltending from backup veteran Marc-Andre Fleury, but as I stated in my Game 6 analysis, I thought that Washington’s Braden Holtby would outduel his counterpart. And that was the case. Holtby let in two early goals, but then shut it down the rest of the way. Washington looked very strong in bouncing back in Game 6 and I think Holtby carries that momentum over into Game 7. The Penguins had their shot and blew it at home. Pittsburgh managed to gut out a win in Game 4 with captain Sidney Crosby sidelined in concussion protocol, but it’s stumbled since. Crosby’s health continues to be a major concern for the club and I think is a definite distraction. I’ll point out as well that the road team is still just 4-10 the last 14 games in this series, while Washington is 41-12 in its last 53 when playing one one days rest. Washington has outscored Pittsburgh 9-4 over the last two games and no doubt looks red hot on both ends of the ice. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Capitals. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-17 | Cardinals -108 v. Marlins | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST). I don’t think that Lance Lynn is getting nearly enough respect in this matchup. Lynn (4-1, 2.04 ERA) most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Braves on Friday, striking out six and walking two in the process. Lynn has quietly won four in a row with just two runs allowed and 22 K’s over 25 innings. To go along with his sparkling 2.04 ERA, he also owns a very respectable 1.08 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 for the year. The home side counters with Tom Koehler (1-1, 5.40), who gave up three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings in a no-decision against the Mets on Friday. Koehler has now given up at least three runs in five straight starts. To go along with his ballooned 5.40 ERA, he also owns an unimpressive 1.50 WHIP. Given their options at the moment, Koehler’s spot in the Marlins starting rotation looks safe for now. I think Lynn and the Cardinals build off yesterday’s 6-5 victory. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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05-10-17 | Cubs -131 v. Rockies | 0-3 | Loss | -131 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (3:10 EST). After getting crushed 10-4 in the afternoon game, the Cubbies bounced back with an 8-1 victory in the second. I think Kyle Hendricks and the defending champs can carry that momentum over here. Hendricks (2-1, 3.51 ERA) comes in off his best outing of the year so far, going six innings against the Yanks on Friday, giving up no runs off six hits while also striking out five in an unfortunate no-decision. Hendricks has now allowed just two runs over his last three starts and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, last year he owned a very respectable 2.95 ERA on the road. The home side counters with German Marquez (0-2, 7.31) who has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. In his 2017 debut at Coors Field he gave up eight runs in four innings to the Nationals. Chicago has struggled for the most part to open 2017, but it does seem to be working out some of the issues. Starting pitching has been a factor early on for sure, but there’s no question that Hendricks is now trending in the correct direction. Coors Field is a nightmare for every pitcher, but I’m giving Hendricks the big nod in this matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-17 | Tigers v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). I don’t think that Robbie Ray is getting enough respect in this matchup. The Tigers hand the ball to Justin Verlander (2-2, 4.21 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and four walks over seven innings in a victory over the Indians on Tuesday. After two ugly outings, Verlander has put together two decent ones. The home side counters with Ray (2-2, 3.47) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out ten over six innings in an unfortunate loss to Washington on Thursday. To go along with his solid 3.47 ERA, Ray also owns a 1.27 WHIP, 3.23 FIP and 12.1 K/9 for the year. I’ll point out that Detroit is just 5-7 (-1.5 units) in all “night” games this season and only 6-8 (-1 unit) on the road, while Arizona is 12-5 (+7.7 units) at home, 14-11 (+3 units) in all night contests and 3-0 (+3.9 units) already in all interleague matchups. Verlander has to bat today for the first time this season, something that always throws a small wrinkle into the day-to-day routine. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a very fair price in this one, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-17 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 214 | Top | 107-110 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Rockets/Spurs (8:00 EST). This seven game series in all tied up at 2-2 after the Rockets soard to a 125-104 victory in Game 4 (I had Houston in that one). Both teams have looked great at times and poor in others so far this series, but in this pivotal Game 5 matchup, I’m expecting both sides to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Houston will look to duplicate its Game 4 performance here. The Rockets were running from the opening tip until the final horn. So far Houston is third among postsason teams in scoring offense with 111.4 per game. Houston though is ranked 11th in scoring defense in conceding 105.3. James Harden has been leading the nightly charge with 30 points plus 5.2 boards and 8.4 assists per game in the postseason. The Spurs have been averaging 105.5 PPG in the playoffs and allowed an average of 101.7. San Antonio looked lost and old in Game 4 and clearly the team is going to have to adjust on the fly again. Keep your eyes on Kawhi Leonard, he’s averaging a team-high 28.4 points, seven boards and 1.7 steals per game in the playoffs. I’ll point out that the over is 9-2 in the Rockets last 11 Conferece Semi games, 4-1 in their last five following a SU victory and 5-2 in their last seven on the road, while the Spurs have seen the total sail above the posted number in their last six games following an ATS loss. The over has also gone 6-1-1 in these team’s last seven games played in San Antonio. I think the conditions are right for another high-scoring affair, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-17 | Red Sox -140 v. Brewers | 7-11 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:40 EST). I think this is a bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Both on the mound and at the plate. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (3-1, 4.00 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over the Orioles on Wednesday. So far the crafty southpaw has allowed two or fewer runs in all but one of his starts. Also note that Pomeranz owns an awesome 34/9 K/W over 27 innings of work. Pomeranz posted a highly respectable 2.75 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Wily Peralta (4-2, 4.88) who gave up two runs and two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a 2-1 loss to the Cards on Tuesday. Peralta has looked brilliant at times this year and quite poor in others. Note that he was just 5-5 with a ballooned 5.23 ERA at home last season. I’ll also point out that Boston is already 5-1 (+4 units) in interleague games this year and 15-12 (+1 unit) against right-handed starters, while Milwaukee is just 3-4 (-1 unit) against lefties. I like the hard-hitting Red Sox in this matchup, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-09-17 | Rangers v. Padres OVER 8.5 | 11-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the over Rangers/Padres (3:40 EST). The visitors hand the ball to AJ Griffin (3-0, 3.54 ERA), who gave up two runs off six hits and a walk while striking out seven over five frames in a win over the Astros on Thursday. Griffin has now won three straight outings, but his 4.38 FIP is a good indicator for future regression. Note that Griffin was an unremarkable 2-2 with a 5.21 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with confirmed “gas can” Jered Weaver (0-3, 5.51) who was shelled for ten runs off ten hits over four innings on Wednesday. So far Weaver has served up 12 home runs to open the 2017 campaign, the most in the majors. I’ll point out that Texas has already seen the total go over the number in nine of 16 on the road this year, while San Diego has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 13 of 21 against right-handed starters. After yesterday’s fairly low-scoring 5-1 affair, all signs point to more of a “slug-fest” on Tuesday. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-17 | Warriors -8 v. Jazz | Top | 121-95 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Western Conference SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST). Just like the Cavaliers did to the Raptors last night, I’m expecting the Warriors to put the Jazz out of their misery this evening. Golden State is in the drivers seat and will be wanting to match Cleveland with the perfect 8-0 start. Kevin Durant was a monster in Game 3, finishing with 38 points in the 102-91 victory. Even without Durant in the lineup near the end of the regular season, the Warriors cruised to 14 straight victories. None were even close. Golden State has yet to win a game in this series in blowout fashion, but I think the deflated Jazz are ripe for the picking here. Gordon Hayward was a standout for the Jazz in Game 3 with 29 points and big man Rudy Gobert contributed 21, but they didn’t get much help after that. The numbers/trends definitely support us today as well, as Golden State is 8-0 ATS its last eight on the road and 10-2-1 ATS in its last 13 when playing on one days rest, while Utah is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six in front of the home town crowd. The Warriors have been toying with the Jazz to this point in my opinion and I’m expecting the biggest rout of the series in Game 4. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-17 | Capitals +111 v. Penguins | Top | 5-2 | Win | 111 | 33 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washignton Capitals (7:30 EST). So far I’m 5-0 in this series, taking the underdog through the first four games (Pens, Pens, Caps, Pens), before then jumping on Washington -1.5 +170 in its 4-2 Game 5 victory. The home team has won ten of the last 13 in this series, but I think the desperate Capitals are going to find a way to get the job done tonight and send this one back to the nation’s capital for a decisive Game 7. For starters, Braden Holtby finally outplayed Pens netminder Marc-Andre Fleury, who in my opinion has been playing over his head to this point. Fleury of course has won Stanley Cups, but he’s now the team’s backup and was forced into service in Game 2 of their opening round series. Pittsburgh was ranked No. 1 in the regular season on the offensive end, while Washington wasn’t far behind in third. The Capitals were the No. 1 defense in the league though, compared to just 17th for the Penguins. Much like in baseball, I’m betting on Holtby in being able to outduel his counterpart today. Washington is a dangerous and motivated team and I think it offers great value in this spot. Good luck…Larry |
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05-08-17 | Yankees -144 v. Reds | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Interleague SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the New York Yankees (7:10 EST). I had a play on the Cubs last night and they lost 5-4 to the Yanks in 18 innings. Normally I’m not one to “flip flop” on a team from day to day, but MLB is different because of the starting pitchers. Each game has to be looked at serperately and despite playing a marathon contest last night, I still believe this one higly favors Masahiro Tanaka and the Bronx Bombers. Tanaka (4-1, 4.46 ERA) wasn’t at his best in a win over Toronto on Sunday, allowing four runs off eight hits and no walks over 6.1 innings. Tanaka has now gone 19 innings since walking his last hitter and has won four consecutive starts. He’ll now look to return to form, note that he was 7-3 with a 2.34 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Rookie Davis (1-1, 7.36), who has been hit-or-miss to open up his career. Last time out he held the Pirates scoreless over five innings. In his previous start he was shelled for eight runs off 11 hits over two innings against Milwaukee. And previous to his last outing, he’d been unable to complete five innings in any of his five other starts. Clearly the book is still out on Davis. I’ll point out that New York is already 7-2 (+5.6 units) this year in interleague games and 14-8 (+4.2 units) against right-handed starters, while Cincinnati is just 13-30 (-14.9 units) in its last 43 interleague contests. If this was the end of the season and the Yanks had just played an 18 inning game the night before, this would likely be a great spot to go against “The Evil Empire.” But the season has just started and I don’t think fatigue is going to be a factor whatsoever here. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Yankees. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-17 | Spurs v. Rockets -5.5 | Top | 104-125 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). The Rockets crushed the Spurs by 27 points in Game 1, but San Antonio has bounced back to take the next two. I think Houston is going to rally in Game 4 though as it’ll look to push the pace from start to finish and run San Antonio off the court. This is essentially a “do-or-die” for the Rockets, as a 3-1 deficit would likely just be too much for the team to overcome, especially with all of the experience on the Spurs. So this is it. Houston will be leaving everything it has on the floor tonight. Clearly this one means just as much to the Spurs, but I’ll point out that they’re just 4-7 ATS in their last 11 when leading in a playoff series and just 2-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog. And note, the Rockets have performed extremely well for bettors in this spot this season, going 9-3 ATS in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and 11-6 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. Despite the Game 3 setback, Houston is still 3-1 on its home floor this year. I think the desperate home side is the correct call tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -133 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -133 | 27 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). The Yanks smashed the Cubs 11-6 yesterday after taking the opener of this three-game interleague series by a score of 3-2. Suffice it to say, I think the defending champs will bounce back in the finale and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (2-2, 3.86 ERA) who gave up five runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Blue Jays on Monday. Severino has been hit-or-miss this year, note that he was just 2-4 with a 5.52 ERA on the road last season. The home side counters with Jon Lester (1-1, 3.67) who picked up his first win of the season against the Phillies on Tuesday, giving up three runs off four hits and five K’s spanning six frames. Lester has to be feeling good about his chances here today as well as note that last season he was a spectacular 10-2 with a 1.74 ERA at home. As mentioned off the top, I absolutely believe that Chicago is the more motivated side tonight. And I also think that Lester has a much bigger advantage in this matchup than what Las Vegas wants us to believe. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-17 | Ducks v. Oilers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -135 | 30 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is the “under” Ducks/Oilers (7:05 EST). I had the Ducks in Game 5 and clearly I feel pretty lucky to have earned that win. The Oilers are kicking themselves right now after letting a three-goal lead with three minutes left to play slip away in Game 5. The Ducks scored a historic three goals in just three minutes and then won in OT 4-3. So far four of the first five games in this series have flown above the posted number, but I think the conditions are now finally right for a lower-scoring “under.” For one thing, both these teams are going to be dead tired after back-to-back extra period games. Both teams came into this series with red-hot goaltending, but neither John Gibson nor Cam Talbot have looked particularly good in this series. For arguments sakes, let’s call the netminders a “wash” in this one. What I will point out though is that Anaheim has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 23 this year after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Edmonton has seen the total dip below the posted number in 16 of 25 home games this season when the total is set at 5.5. A couple of dead tired teams. The home side desperate for a victory to stay alive, with the visiting team looking to close out. When you add it all up, I think this one falls under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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05-07-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 102-121 | Win | 100 | 57 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (6:30 EST). I played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 and then backed Washington in Game 3. For a number of different reasons, I think the home side will also take Game 4. Clearly “home court” is going to play a significant role in this series. After two opening losses to Chicago, Boston rattled off six straight wins and looked primed for a letdown in Game 3. The Wizards had double digit leads in both Game’s 1 and 2, so Washington was finally able to play a complete four-quarters in Game 3 and suffice it to say, I think the teams carries over that confidence and momentum in Game 4. The Celtics have been playing extremely “emotional” in these playoffs and that can be very draining. Isaiah Thomas’ sister was tragically killed just before Boston’s opening series with the Bulls and the Celtics’ superstar has used her death to drive him to this point. However, I think Thomas is gassed both physically and mentally right now. The Wizards’ Kelly Oubre Jr. has been suspended for this game after he body checked Kelly Olynyk in the second quarter. Washington vowed to be more physicaly in Game 3 and it certainly was, as there were three ejections and 52 personal fouls overall. Washington did a great job on the boards, winning 50-38 while also knocking down 22 of 25 from the charity stripe. I’ll point out that Boston is just 7-18 ATS in its last 28 when playing on two days rest, while Washington is 7-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the home side, play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-17 | Warriors v. Jazz UNDER 209 | Top | 102-91 | Win | 100 | 35 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Jazz (8:30 EST). The Warriors took both games at home pretty easily, although they didn’t manage to cover the spread in either. I played the “over” in Game 1 and lost and then took the “over” in Game 2 and won. I think with the shift in venue that we’re going to see another lower-scoring affair in Game 3 though. From a situational stand point, this one sets up perfectly for an “under” in my opinion, as Utah will have to get back to basics and do what it does best if it has any shot whatsoever at scoring an upset tonight. And that means playing smothering, suffocating, relentless defense. The Warriors were the highest scoring team in the regular season, but the Jazz owned the No. 1 defense. Not only does this one set up great from a “situational” stand point, but the numbers/trends also support the “under,” as Golden State has seen the total go under the number in 30 of 48 this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Utah has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four following a loss by ten points or more. And that’s what this pick comes down to for me. A venue shift, a desperate Utah team that needs to control the tempo and dictate the flow and some extremely strong “under” trends that simply can’t be ignored. It’s a perfect storm of factors, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-17 | Penguins v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 170 | 55 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Capitals on the PUCK-LINE (7:15 EST). So far I’m a perfect 4-0 in this series, taking the underdog every single time. Last time out I had the Pens and they’d rally for a 6-2 win with captain Sidney Crosby sidelined with a head injury. However, I think this now sets up as classic “letdown” spot for the defending champs and I look for the clearly desperate home side to not only win this game, but win big. Washington has been getting plenty of shots on net, but so far that hasn’t been enough, as Pittsburgh is getting above average goaltending from Marc-Andre Fleury, combined with smothering defensive play. But I think Pittsburgh comes into this one gassed. Crosby could play tonight, but clearly he’s not going to be even close to 100% capacity. I’ll point out as well that the Pens are just 1-2 (-1.3 units) in their last three after scoring six goals or more, while Washington is 12-3 (+8.2 units) this year when playing on two days rest. Play on Washington on the puck-line. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-17 | Yankees v. Cubs -126 | 11-6 | Loss | -126 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:15 EST). The Bronx Bombers got a two out, two strike, three-run shot at the top of the ninth inning to beat the Cubs yesterday afternoon. Clearly that can’t be sitting well with the defending champs, who I expect to bounce back in a big way this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (1-1, 4.15 ERA) who gave up three runs off three hits and four walks over five frames in a no-decision against the Orioles on Sunday. Clearly the rookie will have his hands full in Chicago this evening. The home side counters with Brett Anderson (2-1, 6.23) who comes in off an outing to forget, giving up seven runs off seven hits over just 1.1 innings in a loss to the Phillies on Monday. I’m not going to read too much into one crummy start. Those types of outings happen to even the best at some point of the season. Note that Anderson gave up just a single earned run over seven innings in a win over Pittsburgh in his previous start. I like Chicago to bounce back here and take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -154 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). The bottom line is that I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Garza (1-0, 3.38 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits while striking out seven batters over 6.2 innings in a win over Atlanta on Sunday. This was Garza’s second start of the year. In his first he only lasted four innings and needed 98 pitches to get through it. It’s one thing to dominate the Braves, but quite another to domiante the Pirates I think. Especially at PNC Park. Note that Garza was terrible on the road last year, going just 2-6 with a ballooned 5.43 ERA. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (1-3, 3.50) who gave up three runs off five hits while also striking out seven over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Monday. Cole has now given up two earned runs or fewer in each of his past four starts, posting a 2.16 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 10.1 K/9 ratio in that span. Note that Cole owned a very respectable 3.53 ERA at home last season. I like Pittsburgh to build off yesterday’s 4-0 victory and I expect Cole to outduel his yet truly untested counterpart. Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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05-06-17 | Blue Jays v. Rays UNDER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 6 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Jays/Rays (4:10 EST). After yesterday’s 8-4 win for the Jays, I’m expecting much more of a pitchers duel this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Marco Estrada (1-1, 2.43 ERA), who earned his first win of the season on Monday against the Yankees by allowing one run off seven hits and no walks over seven innings of work, also going on to strike out five. Over his last 26 innings of work Estrada has been scored upon just four times spanning 26 innings. Also note that he owns a 9.2 K/9 ratio. And Estrada has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’d go 6-2 with a respectable 3.39 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (1-1, 3.50) who returned from injury on Monday to face the Marlins and he’d pitch well in giving up two runs off two hits over six innings while also striking out six. He should be fresh here as he was extremely effecient in his last outing, needing just 78 pitches to make it through the five innings. Note that Odirizzi was 5-3 with a 3.58 ERA in all “day” games last year. I’ll point out that Toronto has seen the total go under the number in five of eight “day” games already this season, while Tampa has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four against clubs with losing records. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck..Larry |
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05-05-17 | Oilers v. Ducks -135 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:30 EST). I played the Ducks in both Game’s 3 and 4 and I think they’re going to find a way to get the job done in Game 5 as well. If you didn’t get a chance to read my winning Game 4 analysis, I’m going to post it again here as for the most part, the line of thinking on that selection also directly applies to tonight’s pick as well: I played the Ducks in Game 3 and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in Game 4 as well. The Oilers took the first two games of this series, but Anaheim got right back into it with a dominating 6-3 win in Game 3. The Ducks have to be liking their chances tonight as well as they’re now 28-10 in the last 38 games in this series. Anaheim wasn’t great on the road in the regular season, but so far it’s 3-0 away from friendly confines in the playoffs. Keep your eyes on Jakob Silfverberg, who now has six goals in the postseason. I think these goaltenders are a “wash,” as either John Gibson of the Ducks or Cam Talbot of the Oilers has the ability to take over a game on any given night (Talbot is 6-3 with a 2.47 GAA in the playoffs, while Gibson is 4-2 with a 2.80 GAA). I’ll point out that Anaheim is 33-19 (+9.2 units) in its last 52 when playing on two days rest, while Edmonton is just 4-7 (-4.8 units) in the same position this season. I had a feeling that the Ducks would come out poised in Game 3 and that it was the Oilers that had the pressure on them to perform in front of the home town crowd. And I think that line of thinking also applies in this one as well. Expect the Ducks’ veteran leadership to once again get the better of the younger Oilers. “Momentum” is a very real, almost tangible factor in the playoffs and it’s one that I believe the oddsmakers often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here in my opinion. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting an excellent price on the surging Ducks. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-17 | Dodgers -142 v. Padres | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST). I played against the Dodgers twice earlier this week as the Giants would go on to cash as big underdogs in each instance. While he struggled to open the 2017 campaign, LA pitcher Kenta Maeda comes in off his best start of the season and I think he’ll parlay that effort with another big performance and easily outduel his volatile counterpart this evening. Maeda (2-2, 6.58 ERA) gave up two runs to go along with eight K’s over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Friday. Maeda was hit hard in his first three starts, but looks to have found his footing again. Note that he was 9-6 with a 3.74 ERA on the road last season and 14-8 with a 3.33 ERA in all “night” games. Jhoulys Chacin (3-3, 5.82 ERA) comes in off a victory over the Giants on Saturday, going five innings and giving up three runs while also walking two. Chacin has been hit-or-miss all year, note that he was just 4-7 with a poor 4.92 ERA in all “night” games last season. I like Maeda to build off his last outing and look for the Dodgers to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-17 | Spurs v. Rockets UNDER 215 | Top | 103-92 | Win | 100 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is the under Spurs/Rockets (9:30 EST). It’s a big game obviously, Game 3 is always a big one. These teams are deadlocked at one apiece and with the series shifting to Houston, I think we’re going to see more of a defensive battle than what some may think. The Spurs’ big win in Game 2 came at a cost, as venerable point guard Tony Parker was lost for the season to injury. One now has to wonder if Parker has played his last game in the NBA? Obvioulsy the loss isn’t that monumental, as the team’s core players remain in tact. The Spurs dominated the glass in Game 2 by a 47-32 margin and Kawhi Leonard led the charge with 34 points. So far San Antonio has been averaging 106 PPG in the playoffs, while conceding 100. Leonard has led the way with 30.3 points, 6.8 boards and 1.68 steals per game. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge has posted 13.5 points and 7.3 boards per game. The Rockets have averaged 112.3 PPG and given up 105.9 in the playoffs. James Harden has led the way with 28.4 points, 5.7 boards and 8.4 assists per game. San Antonio has been playing to some higher-scoring affairs in the playoffs, as it’s seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of eight postseason contests thus far. I’ll point out though that the Spurs have seen the total go under the number in ten of their last 16 against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. Also note that Houston has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 32 this year after allowing 115 points or more. I think fatigue plays a factor in Game 3. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors +2 | 115-94 | Loss | -108 | 31 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:00 EST). The public has been cleaning up in this series, as the Cavs and the “over” have both gone on to cash with ease over the first two games. Kyle Lowry may be out of this game, but I think the Raptors have a fantastic opportunity to steal one from the defending champs and get right back into this series. So far it’s been fairly “easy” for the Cavs, who steamrolled the Pacers in four games in their opening round matchup, only to then also dominate the first two games against Toronto. If ever Cleveland was going to have a “letdown,” then this is it. The Cavs have been playing at an extremely high level for six straight games and now hit the road to face a Raptors teach which is in “do-or-die” mode. The same sort of situation occured last night with the Celtics. I had played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of its series against Washington, but came back with the Wizards in Game 3 last night. The C’s had won six in a row after dropping the first two to the Bulls in their opening round, but finally looked primed for a letdown in Game 3 after the extended stretch of high-level play. The exact same thing applies to Cleveland tonight. I’ll point out that the Cavs are just 9-13 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories, while the Raptors are 7-4 ATS after playing three consecutive road games and 3-1 ATS in their last four after allowing 115 points or more. I think the dynamic of this series shifts dramatically tonight. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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05-05-17 | Cavs v. Raptors UNDER 214.5 | 115-94 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple PLay is on the under Cavs/Raptors (7:00 EST). I also have a play on the Raptors. In the analysis for that pick i write: The public has been cleaning up in this series, as the Cavs and the “over” have both gone on to cash with ease over the first two games. Kyle Lowry may be out of this game, but I think the Raptors have a fantastic opportunity to steal one from the defending champs and get right back into this series. So far it’s been fairly “easy” for the Cavs, who steamrolled the Pacers in four games in their opening round matchup, only to then also dominate the first two games against Toronto. If ever Cleveland was going to have a “letdown,” then this is it. The Cavs have been playing at an extremely high level for six straight games and now hit the road to face a Raptors teach which is in “do-or-die” mode. The same sort of situation occured last night with the Celtics. I had played Boston in Game’s 1 and 2 of its series against Washington, but came back with the Wizards in Game 3 last night. The C’s had won six in a row after dropping the first two to the Bulls in their opening round, but finally looked primed for a letdown in Game 3 after the extended stretch of high-level play. The exact same thing applies to Cleveland tonight. Clearly the Raptors can ill afford to turn this one into another “track meet” and hope to beat the Cavs. Toronto will be looking to control the tempo of this one and I think that means a slower, more methodically paced affair in Game 3. And a slower game means less shots and less shots means less points. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 204 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 34 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* O/U 33-Club Play is the over Jazz/Warriors (10:30 EST). I played the “over” in Game 1 and came up short. I expect a better effort from the Jazz offensively tonight though and look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Utah’s late rally wasn’t enough in the 106-94 setback. Gordon Hayward had just 12 points in Game 1. I think he’s going to get back on track with a much better effort tonight. Utah had just come off a tough seven-game series win over the Clippers, so some regression in the first game, especially against the well rested Warriors, had to be expected. The Warriors dismantled the Blazers in four games and will once again be looking to send a statement tonight. Golden State shot 48.8 percent from the floor in Game 1. The Jazz hit nine three-pointers, but the Warriors hit just seven. Golden State made up for it by forcing 14 turnovers, compared to just seven for the Jazz. I think Utah will be more mentally prepared tonight and with each team pushing the pace, the correct call is indeed on the over in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-17 | Celtics v. Wizards -5 | Top | 89-116 | Win | 100 | 32 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). I played on Boston in Game’s 1 and 2, but with their backs against the wall and essentially in a do-or-die scenario, I think the Wizards play their best game of the series and claw their way back into it. Washington had its chance in Game 2, but would eventually fall apart down the stretch, losing 129-119 in OT on Tuesday. Boston has been on an absolute tear since Game 3 of its opening round series against the Bulls by winning six straight. That’s an awful lot of high-intensity, focused games in a row and suffice it to say, I think Game 3 sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the visitors, who I think will finally be caught a little “flat-footed” tonight. And clearly for the Wizards, this is a “must win” game, as a 3-0 deficit would likely be too much for the team to overcome. I’ll point out that Boston is already just 5-15 ATS this year after three or more consecutive SU victories and only 9-11 ATS after a victory by ten points or more, while Washington is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 115 points or more. The Wizards are fighting for their playoff lives, while the Celtics are looking to catch their breath after an extended streak of high-level play. When you add it all up, the correct call is indeed on the home side in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-17 | Senators v. Rangers UNDER 5 | Top | 1-4 | Push | 0 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is the under Sens/Rangers (7:30 EST). Ottawa took the first two games of this series at home, before New York bounced back with a 4-1 win in Game 3 on its home ice. This should be a competitive Game 4, as despite the Game 3 setback, the Sens are still 27-12 their last 39 trips to The Big Apple. Craig Anderson will get the call in net for the visitors and so far he’s 6-3 with a 2.28 GAA and .917 save percentage in the postseason. The home side counters with Henrik Lundqvist, who is 5-4 with a 2.03 GAA and .935 save percentage in the playoffs. Obviously this is a major game in the series, either tying it up For New York, or with Ottawa taking a strangle-hold. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a very tightly-checked, “chippy” affair. I’ll point out as well that Ottawa has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a loss by three or more goals, while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last eight in the second round of the playoffs. Lundqvist has given up just three goals over his last three home games. I’m banking on these two goaltenders on being the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-17 | Marlins v. Rays -127 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST). Simply put, I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (1-2, 4.15 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits and three walks while striking out five over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Pirates on Saturday. Straily has bee hit or miss this year, looking brilliant at times and pedestrian in others. Note that while Straily owned a superb 8-1, 2.90 ERA at home last season, he was just 6-7 with a poor 4.70 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Matt Andriese (1-1, 3.86) who comes in off his first poor outing of the year, giving up four runs off five hits and three walks while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to the Blue Jays on Saturday. Despite the sub-par performance, Andriese has still allowed just eight earned runs over his first five trips to the mound. I’ll point out that Miami is still just 7-11 (-5 units) this year in all “night” games, while Tampa is 11-6 (+6.1 units) in the same position. After yesterday’s 10-6 setback, look for Andriese and the Rays to find a way to get the job done on Thursday night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-04-17 | White Sox v. Royals -137 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -137 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Kansas City Royals (2:15 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland (2-2, 2.17 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over 6.1 innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Saturday. Holland has been a pleasant surprise so far for the White Sox, but I’m not ready to say that he’s one of the top pitchers in the league quite yet. I’ll point out that Holland was just 2-7 with a ballooned 6.05 ERA in all road games last season. The home side counters with Ian Kennedy (0-2, 2.30), who gave up two runs off two hits while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Twins on Friday. His 2.30 ERA and 0.99 WHIP while also posting an 8.0 K/9 ratio rank among the best in the AL. Interestingly, Kennedy ranks last in all of MLB for run support this year (just 1.4 runs of support per outing). Suffice it to say, I expect the hard-throwing right-hander to finally get some offensive support this evening. As note that the White Sox are just 6-9 against right-handed starters this year, while KC is 6-2 (+5.3 units) this season when playing against a team with a winning record. I think the Royals build off yesterday’s 6-1 victory and expect Kennedy to outduel his over-achieving counterpart. Play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-17 | Giants +148 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-1 | Win | 148 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER-DOG BLOWOUT is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST). I played on the Giants on Monday night and Johnny Cueto would wind up getting the better of Clayton Kershaw with San Francisco going on to cash as a large underdog. The Dodgers got their revenge in last night’s 13-5 blowout win, but I think that the Giants can bounce back here in the finale and steal another one going away. San Francisco hands the ball to Jeff Samardzija (0-4, 6.32 ERA), who like Cueto, has also struggled to open the 2017 campaign, but who also comes in off his best outing of the season, going seven innings, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out five in a 4-3 win over the Padres on Friday. The Shark was decent on the road last year, going 7-5 with a 4.03 ERA and was 10-8 with a 3.57 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Julio Urias (0-0, 1.59) who held these very Giants to one run off four hits over 5.2 innings in his first game after getting called up from Triple-A on Thursday. He was far from perfect though, as he’d go on to walk four in the eventual 5-1 victory. Also note that the 20 year old was pulled after 90 pitches. And I’ll also point out that San Francisco is 3-1 (+2.1 units) in its last four following a loss, while LA is just 5-9 (-8.6 units) following a victory this season. I think the book is still out on Urias, who I think is capable of being brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others. Samardzija got back on track in his last outing and should be able to match his younger counterpart inning for inning. And in a situation like that, I think the value is on the underdog. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-17 | Ducks +107 v. Oilers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 107 | 36 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:00 EST). I played the Ducks in Game 3 and I think they’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in Game 4 as well. The Oilers took the first two games of this series, but Anaheim got right back into it with a dominating 6-3 win in Game 3. The Ducks have to be liking their chances tonight as well as they’re now 28-10 in the last 38 games in this series. Anaheim wasn’t great on the road in the regular season, but so far it’s 3-0 away from friendly confines in the playoffs. Keep your eyes on Jakob Silfverberg, who now has six goals in the postseason. I think these goaltenders are a “wash,” as either John Gibson of the Ducks or Cam Talbot of the Oilers has the ability to take over a game on any given night (Talbot is 6-3 with a 2.47 GAA in the playoffs, while Gibson is 4-2 with a 2.80 GAA). I’ll point out that Anaheim is 33-19 (+9.2 units) in its last 52 when playing on two days rest, while Edmonton is just 4-7 (-4.8 units) in the same position this season. I had a feeling that the Ducks would come out poised in Game 3 and that it was the Oilers that had the pressure on them to perform in front of the home town crowd. And I think that line of thinking also applies in this one as well. Expect the Ducks’ veteran leadership to once again get the better of the younger Oilers. Play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-17 | Capitals v. Penguins +105 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 105 | 34 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:15 EST). I played the Penguins in Game’s 1 and 2 and then came back with the Capitals in Game 3. Sidney Crosby is out, but the Pens are an incredibly deep team and I think they offer great value as a slight dog at home in this situation. The Capitals finished as the Presidents Cup Trophy Winners in the regular season, but despite the Game 3 setback, so far it’s been Pittsburgh which has looked like the better team in this series. The Penguins are stacked from top to bottom with talent and have been getting World class goaltending from veteran Marc-Andre Fleury. Pittsburgh was an OT goal away from having a 3-0 stranglehold on this series, but the Pens still have to be liking their chances tonight, even without their captain in the line-up. I think the goaltenders are a “wash.” Braden Holtby got the win for Washington last time out and he’s now 5-4 with a 2.54 GAA in the postseason. Fleury is 6-2 with a 2.44 GAA so far in the playoffs. Either one of these guys has the capability of taking over a game on any given night. Ultimately I feel that the Pens will step up and rally in this moment after their leader has gone down. The defending champs won’t be going down without a fight and as I stated off the top, I feel they offer tremendous value in this position. Washington has been in this spot many times over the last few years and has consistently choked (still just 6-10, -5.6 units in the second round of the playoffs the L3 years combined). Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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05-03-17 | Orioles v. Red Sox -138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). The Red Sox finally provided ace Chris Sale with some support yesterday as Boston pulled away for the 5-2 victory. I think the home side will build off that effort and I look for Drew Pomeranz to outduel his volatile counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (1-2, 7.50 ERA) who was shelled for five runs over six innings in a fortunate no-decision in an eventual 14-11 extra-innings loss to New York on Friday. Gausman has now been rocked for at least five runs in each of his last three starts. Note that while he was 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA at home last year, he was a poor 3-10 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Pomeranz (2-1, 4.15) who gave up two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out seven over six innings in a 5-4 win over the Cubs on Friday. It was his best start of the year and while his ERA isn’t spectacular, his 27:7 K/W ratio over 21.2 innings is fantastic. I’ll point out that Baltimore is just 28-29 (-3.6 units) in its last 57 played in the month of May, while Boston is is already 9-6 (+1.2 units) at Fenway this year. Pomeranz struggled in his transition from the Senior Circuit to the Junior League, but it does now finally appear as if he’s made the adjustment. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value,” play on the Red Sox. Godo luck…Larry |
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05-03-17 | Raptors +7.5 v. Cavs | Top | 103-125 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). I played the Raptors in Game 1 and obviously came up short. I think Toronto though can make adjustments and keep Game 2 a lot closer than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Am I going to suggest to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line” as well? No I am not. Cleveland took Game 1, 116-105 on Monday. Last year the Cavs knocked off the Raptors in six games in the Eastern Conference Finals. If Toronto is going to “get over the hump,” it has to figure out a way to win in Cleveland. Kyle Lowry was a bright spot with 20 points and 11 assists. Clearly head coach Wayne Casey is going to have to make some adjustments. The Cavs came out with a lot of energy, but weren’t overly effecient in Game 1, shooting 45.9 percent from the floor, including 14 of 34 from range. LeBron James dominated with 35 points and ten boards. I’ll point out though that the Raptors have performed well in this spot for bettors, going 5-1 ATS in their last six following a straight up loss and 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU loss of more than ten points, while the Cavs are interestingly 0-4 ATS in their last four when playing on one days rest. Toronto has an infamous reputation now in dropping Game 1 of its recent playoff series the last few years as Monday’s setback made it ten straight Game 1 losses in a row. The Raptors bounced back against the Bucks in Game 2 in their opening series and as I stated off the top, I think they’ll be much more competitive tonight as well. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-17 | Jazz v. Warriors OVER 208 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Jazz/Warriors (10:30 EST). They say defense wins championships. That addage is true in many cases, but I’ve always thought that it pertained more to the gridiron than to the hardwood. It’s the league’s No. 1 defense going up against the NBA’s No. 1 offense on Tuesday night and in my opinion, I believe the overall “situation” lends itself to a higher-scoring shootout. And that’s because I’m expecting the well rested Warriors to send a clear message to the Jazz, to the Western Conference and most importantly, to LeBron James and the Cavaliers that they’re still the team that needs to be respected and feared the most. Utah pulled off the upset over the Clippers because, most would argue, LA star Blake Griffin was injured in Game 3 and was lost for the rest of the season. The Jazz likely would not have won that series if Griffin remained healthy. But regardless, Utah has moved onto the second round after a gruelling seven game opening series and suffice it to say, I think its normally stout defense is going to be predictably “gassed” tonight in what will be a very raucous arena. And I’ll point out that the Jazz have in fact seen the total go over the number in four of seven this year off an upset win as an underdog and in 16 of 23 after a win by ten points or more. And note that Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 16 of 28 already this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-17 | Blues +150 v. Predators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the St. Louis Blues (9:35 EST). I think the desperate Blues offer great value here to steal Game 4. So far this has been a competitive series, with each team trading victories to this point. Nashville took Game 1, 4-3, while the Blues took Game 2, 3-2. Nashville then won 3-1 in Game 3. Now it’s time for St. Louis to get back on track here and snatch back the home ice advantage. Pekka Rinne has been unbelievable for the Predators, but Jake Allen has been pretty good for St. Louis as well. Allen is 5-3 with a 2.04 GAA and 93.8 save percentage in the postseason, while Rinne is 6-1 with a 1.38 GAA and 95.0 save percentage. Rinne’s numbers are better, but not by that much. Clearly either one of these netminders has the capability to completely take over a game on any given night. So in my opinion, that means that they’re a “wash.” The Blues had scored ten goals in three games previous before Game 3 and I think that offense wakes up again tonight. I’ll point out that St. Louis is 14-10 (+3.3 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more, while Nashville is just 12-17 (-9.6 units) this season following a win by two goals or more. I think that Nashville finally has a letdown here and the hungry Blues find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -5 | Top | 119-129 | Win | 100 | 34 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Boston Celtics (8:00 EST). I played the Celtics in Game 1 and after a slow start, Boston would put the foot on the gas and pull away for the eventual 123-111 victory. I think the C’s come out much more prepared from the start tonight though and look for them to once again find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Washington is crushed, it had a 22-5 lead at one point in the first quarter, but things went South quickly after that. The Wizards struggled with the inside-outside game of the Celtics and the dynamic guard duo of John Wall and Bradley Beal were effectively “shut down” by Boston’s Isaiah Thomas and company. The Celtics shot a blistering 51.1 percent from the floor and hit 19 of 39 from range. Thomas was a standout with 33 points and nine assists. And I’ll point out that Washington is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning percentage above. 600, while the Celtics are 4-0 ATS In their last four following an ATS/SU victory. “Momentum” is a very real, almost tangible factor in the playoffs and it’s one which I believe the books often have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here I think. The Wizards’ suspect defense comes back to haunt them again in Game 2, play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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05-02-17 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals -131 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -131 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). These starting pitchers have been pretty equal so far to open the 2017 campaign, but I think that Tanner Roark and the Nationals have a bigger advantage in this spot than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Walker (3-1, 3.94 ERA) gave up two runs off four hits while striking out 11 over eight innings in a 6-2 victory over the soft-hitting Padres on Thursday. It was a dominant outing, as Walker is finally starting to show his full potential. But I’ll point out that he was just 3-5 with a 4.33 ERA on the road last season. Roark (3-0, 3.64) is coming off an outstanding outing himself, holding the Rockies to two runs off five hits and four walks over five innings at Coors Field in an eventual victory last Wednesday. Roark was dominant at home last year, going 9-6 with a 2.72 ERA. Washington had a day off on Monday after crushing the Mets 23-5 on Sunday and I expect that offensive momentum to get carried over here. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Giants +210 v. Dodgers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 210 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG OF THE WEEK is on the San Francisco Giants (10:10 EST). I think Johnny Cueto and the San Francisco Giants have more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. The likelihood of Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw having a catastrophic meltdown tonight is highly unlikely, so for this pick I’m expecting Cueto to match the crafty southpaw inning for inning. I like the Giants’ chances in a scenario like this, so the value is simply too great too turn down in my professional opinion. Cueto (3-1, 5.10 ERA) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up three runs off seve hits while striking out five in a no-decision against these very Dodgers last Wednesday. I think Cueto’s numbers will start to return to norm sooner rather than later. Note that he was 10-2 with a 2.78 ERA on the road last year. Kershaw (4-1, 2.29) gave up one run over seven innings to go along with seven K’s in a win over the Giants on Tuesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about the perenial Cy Young candidate, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Cueto is on the cusp of returning to prominence and he and the hungry visiting side offer tremendous value in this upset position. I’ll also point out that the Giants are 42-17 (+22.8 units) in their last 59 games played in the month of May, while LA is already a poor 5-8 (-6.4 units) this season following a victory. For all the reasons listed above, play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs -5.5 | 126-99 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST). The home side has to be feeling pretty confident here as it took three of the four regular season meetings from the Rockets this year. Houston outmatched OKC in its 4-1 series victory over Oklahoma City, however San Antonio clearly presents a much bigger challenge. The Spurs are loaded with talent from top to bottom and can hurt you on the inside and outside. San Antonio has experience, from head coach Greg Popovich, to Tony Parker and Manu Ginobili. The Spurs also have an MVP candidate to rival the Rockets’ James Harden in Kawhi Leonard, who is a much better two-way player than Harden. In fact, Leonard has been defensive player of the year, so there is no comparison whatsoever in that regards. And in the postseason, playing defense does help of course. San Antonio had a top 3 defense in the regular season and I think it will prove to be a difference maker here today as well. The Spurs have the talent to slow down Harden and have the muscle down low to have their way on the glass and offensive end. I’ll point out that Housont is just 2-8 ATS In its last ten following an ATS loss, while San Antonio is 7-1 ATS in its last eight when playing on three or more days rest. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Rockets v. Spurs UNDER 215 | Top | 126-99 | Loss | -105 | 53 h 14 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the the under Rockets/Spurs (9:35 EST). Houston looked surprisingly good on the defensive end in its 4-1 opening series victory over the Thunder. The Spurs struggled with their offense at times against the Grizzlies, but ultimately their strong defensive play and consistent attack proved too much for Memphis in the six game series victory. One of my 8* picks of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Spurs and in the analysis for that selection, I mention that I think Kawhi Leonard of San Antonio is a tough matchup for Houston. Leonard is probably the best two-way player in the NBA. Houston’s James Harden is an unbelievable talent, but clearly he’s unable to play defense at an elite level, it’s his one and only weakness. For me, this is a “situational” play, as I believe San Antonio will want to slow this one down from the start and control the tempo, as it will look to avoid turning this series into a “track meet” (a pace which would clearly favor Houston.) The Spurs had a top 3 defense in the regular season and note that they’ve seen the total go under the number in 16 of 28 this year against good offensive teams which average 106 points per game. I’ll also point out that the Rockets have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six this year when playing with three or more days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Capitals +118 v. Penguins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 118 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Washington Capitals (7:30 EST). I played on Pittsburgh in Game’s 1 and 2 of this series, but for Game 3 I’m backing the now desperate Capitals, which are essentially in a “do-or-die” scenario tonight. Washington lost to the Pens in the second round of the playoffs last year as well. The Capitals were a good road team this season, finishing 25-19 away from friendly confines. Braden Holtby took his second loss in a row, he’s now 26-28 with a 1.98 GAA lifetime in the postseason. The Capitals finished third in scoring offense in the regular season, and No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding just 2.16. Clearly Pittsburgh looks pretty dominant right now, but so too did the Oilers after they grabbed a 2-0 series lead over Anaheim, only to then fall 6-3 at home in Game 3 last night (I had a play on the Ducks in that one.) Marc-Andre Fleury has looked great to this point for Pittsburgh, but one has to wonder when he’ll have his first “hiccup?” The Pens finished with the No. 1 offense in the regular season with 3.39 GPG, while ranked just 17th on the defensive end in conceding 2.79. I’ll point out though that Washington is 27-14 (+7.6 units) in its last 41 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest. I think the desperate Capitals offer great value here, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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05-01-17 | Raptors +7 v. Cavs | 105-116 | Loss | -107 | 51 h 45 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). Toronto will look to steal Game 1 of this Eastern Conference semi-finals against rival Cleveland. The Cavs took three of four in the regular season series. This is a big time revenge scenario for the Raptors, who lost the Eastern Conference Finals 4-2 to the Cavs just last year. Toronto had a top five offense in the regular season, but the series against the Bucks was a slower-paced one. The Raptors averaged only 93.8 PPG over the six game series win, but they conceded just 93.2. DeMar DeRozan led the way with 23.5 points and 5.5 boards per game. Big man Serge Ibaka put up 12.8 points, 8.3 boards and 2.33 blocks per game and is expected to be a difference maker in this series as well. Cleveland averaged 112.8 PPG against Indiana in its four game opening series sweep, while allowing 108.8 in the process. LeBron James was a standout with 32.8 points, 9.8 boards, nine assits, three steals and two blocks per game average. I’ll point out though that Toronto is 4-0 ATS in its last four against a team with a winning percentage above .600 and 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Cleveland is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home and 0-2-2 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a winning road record. Cleveland’s four-game series victory came by a combined total of 16 points over Indiana, with six being the largest margin of victory. James looked fantastic, but Kevin Love struggled in Game’s 3 and 4 and the bench has also stumbled with production. I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Toronto needs to make a statement and there’s no better moment than right now. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-17 | Cubs -105 v. Red Sox | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). The Cubs smashed the Red Sox 7-4 on Saturday and I think the defending champs find a way to get the job done at the end of the night Sunday as well. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (2-1, 4.50 ERA) who started the year slowly with three below average outings, before finally putting the pieces together in his last start, going six scoreless while giving up four hits and two walks against the Pirates on Tuesday. Note that Hendricks was 7-6 with a 2.95 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (1-1, 3.12), who also started the year struggling, but who also comes in off a dominant effort, allowing one hit and five walks over six shutout frames in a 6-2 win over the Orioles on Sunday. Note that Rodriguez was 0-4 with a 6.02 ERA at home last season. The trends heavily favor the Cubs today, as note that Chicago is 7-2 (+4 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Boston is only 5-8 (-4.4 units) in the same position. I think Hendricks is the correct call here. Rodriguez is coming off a good start, but I believe the Cubs are being severely undervalued in this matchup. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-17 | Ducks +117 v. Oilers | Top | 6-3 | Win | 117 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Anaheim Ducks (7:00 EST I played the Ducks in Game’s 1 and 2 and I’m obviously 0-2 at this point. But with its back against the wall, I think Anaheim finds a way to get the job done in Game 3. I will admit, I’m obviously surprised at how well the younger Oilers have played to this point. Momentum is a very real, almost tangible factor at times in sports (especially in the playoffs) and Edmonton would seemingly have it on its side. But I’m not writing off Anaheim quite yet. The Ducks steamrolled the Flames in four straight games, but have been caught a little flat-footed against the speedy Oilers. Now that the series has shifted North of the border, I think we’re going to see a much more aggressive attack from this veteran laden Anaheim team. So far Cam Talbot has gotten the better of John Gibson in net, but I still firmly believe that the goaltenders are completely even in this series. The trends also support us here, as note that the Ducks are 10-5 (+5.6 units) this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while the Oilers are just 7-8 (-2 units) this year after playing three consecutive road games and only 7-9 (-4 units) after a three game unbeaten streak. Anaheim outshot Edmonton 40-23 in Game 3 and it’s now outshot the Oilers in both games. Something has to give tonight and as this is essentially a “do-or-die” game for the Ducks, I think the correct call is on the visitors tonight. Play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-17 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 192 | 104-91 | Win | 100 | 28 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jazz/Clippers (3:30 EST). It’s a pivotal Game 7 showdown and in my opinion, all signs point to a higher-scoring shootout. LA is at home and will be looking to push the pace of this one from start to finish. The Jazz are going to be forced to match tempo. The total has since dropped a couple of points from when I first made this selection, but regardless, I still love this play as I think the situation definitely lends itself to a faster paced affair. LA lost Blake Griffin, but it rallied on the road in Game 6 to gut out the 98-93 victory. The total stayed “under” the number in that one by a single bucket. So far Utah allows 98 and concedes 98 in the playoffs. LA has averaged 98 and allowed 98 as well. These teams are very evenly matched and much more so now that Griffin is out of the equation. I think the Jazz have more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well. The stage is set for Gordon Hayward to put his team on his back and take it to the next level. Hayward continues to get solid support from Joe Johnson (16.7 points in the playoffs) and Rudy Gobert (10.3). I’ll point out that Utah has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four off an upset loss as a favorite, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of 15 this year against good defensive clubs which allow 98 points or less per game. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-30-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 111-123 | Win | 100 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Celtics (1:05 EST). Washington advanced to the second round by knocking off Atlanta in six games, including a 115-99 road win in Game 6. Boston also won its opening round series with the Bulls 4-2, including a 105-83 victory in Game 6 on the road. These teams split four meetings in the regular season. John Wall and Bradley Beal had their way for the most part with the Hawks, with Wall going for 42 points and eight assists in the Game 6 victory. But now the team faces a much stiffer test in my opinion, as I think the Celtics match up much better against Wall and Beal. The Wizards have been poor on the defensive end, conceding 105.5 PPG in the playoffs. The Celtics have been conceding just 96.5 in the postseason. Isaiah Thomas has gotten progressively better with each game since Game 3 (was blindsided by the death of his sister just before the series started) and so too has everyone around him, including Jae Crowder (12 points, 5.3 boards in the playoffs), Avery Bradley (16 points, four bouards, three assists) and Al Horford (15.3 points, 8.3 boards and 6.5 assists). I’ll point out though that the Wizards are just 1-4 ATS in thier last five road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, whil Boston is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. The Wizards looked great at home in their opening series, but struggled on the road, going 3-0 at the Verizon Venter and just 1-2 away from friendly confines. The C’s dropped those first two games at home to the Bulls, but that was under extraordinary conditions, a factor that no one could have anticipated. Since then though, Boston has fully recovered and note that it did go 30-11 at home in the regular season, while the Wizards were just 19-22 on the road. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-17 | Padres v. Giants -142 | 12-4 | Loss | -142 | 29 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francisco Giants (9:05 EST). I think the Matt Cain and the home side build off yesterday’s 5-4 victory. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jhoulys Chacin (2-3, 5.90 ERA) who most recently was shelled for seven runs off eight hits over six innings in a 7-6 loss to the Diamondbacks. Chacin has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concered to open the 2017 campaign. Note that he was particularly bad in this spot last season, going 2-6 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. Cain (2-0, 2.42 ERA) looks to continue his strong start to the season after being cleared to play after a recent small leg issue which caused him to leave his Monday start early. Before that though he fired six frames of shutout ball against the dangerous Dodgers. Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when tying to properly assess starting pitching and in this case, Cain clearly has a big advantage. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a very fair price in this matchup, play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-17 | Penguins +128 v. Capitals | Top | 6-2 | Win | 128 | 31 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST). I played on the Penguins in Game 1 and I think they’re going to roll in Game 2 as well. These teams are very familiar with each other and for the most part, they’re pretty much even across the board. Goaltending is a “wash” in my opinion. The Pens have a bit more depth on the offensive side of the ice though, which I think will once again prove to be too much for Washington to overcome. The numbers/trends also heavily favor Pittsburgh in this one, as note that the Pens are 10-6 (+2.1 units) in their last 16 when leading in a playoff series, while the Capitals are only 5-9 (-4.9 units) in their last 14 in the second round of the playoffs. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-17 | Pirates v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the under Pirates/Marlins (7:10 EST). I think these two competent starters will battle into the latter frames, which will ultimately result in a lower-scoring under. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (2-2, 2.00 ERA), who most recently allowed one run off four hits and a walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over the Yanks on Sunday. Nova’s numbers are very solid across the board, a 2.00 ERA and 0.95 WHIP which is supported by a decent 2.96 FIP. The home side counters with Dan Straily (1-1, 3.92) who also comes in off a strong outing, going 5.1 innings of scoreless, no-hit ball against the Mets on Sunday, finishing with five K’s in an unfortunate no-decision. Strailly was 14-8 with a 3.79 ERA last year and while he started off slow this season, he’s gotten better with each outing. Note that Strailly was 8-1 with a 2.90 ERA at home last year. I’ll also point out as well that Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four against right-handed starters, while Miami has seen the total go under in three of its last four after three or more consecutive losses. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on under Cubs/Red Sox (4:05 EST). I had a play on the Red Sox last night and they’d hold on for the 5-4 win, the total going over the 8.5 number. I think these two veteran starters will battle into the latter frames today though, which I believe will result in this one staying below this sky-high number. The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (1-3, 4.88 ERA) who is coming off an outing to forget, giving up seven runs off six hits while also striking out seven through six innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. It hasn’t been a great start to the 2017 campaign for Lackey, as he’s allowed 16 runs through his first 24 innings of work. He does have 26 K’s over that span though. Lackey isn’t getting any younger, but as the season progresses, he should be able to get his numbers back to seasonal norms. In 2016 he was 11-8 with a 3.35 ERA. He was much better at home than on the road, but note that he’d go on to post a highly respectable 3.81 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Steven Wright (1-2, 8.66), who like Lackey has also gotten out to a poor start to the 2017 season. Most recently Wright gave up four runs off nine hits over just 3.2 innings in a 4-2 loss to Baltimore on Saturday. Wright has been plagued by the long-ball early, having been rocked for seven over just 17.2 innings of work. That’s in stark contrast from last season though when he permitted only 12 over 156.2 innings. Wright will now look to “right the ship,” note that he also had success in all “day” games last year, finishing with a 3.09 ERA. I’ll point out that Chicago has seen the total go under the number in 27 of its last 44 inter-league games, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of ten “day” games already this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-29-17 | Rays v. Blue Jays OVER 8.5 | 1-4 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over Rays/Jays (1:05 EST). Neither of these starters has impressed to start the year. In my opinion, this one is going to sneak over the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Andriese (1-0, 3.86 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits and two walks while stirking out four over five innings in a loss to Houston on Sunday. He’d also get rocked for two home runs. Andriese has been taken deep in each start and five times overall through only 19 frames of work. His 7.88 K/9 and 5.26 FIP though tell the real story and show why his decent ERA to open is more smoke and mirrors than anything else. The home side counters with the volatile Francisco Liriano (1-2, 4.58) who gave up two runs off five hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in an eventual loss to the Angels in his last outing. Liriano has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned, looking brilliant at times and downright horrible in others. Note that when he faced the Rays in his season debut, he’d get rocked for five runs and record only a single strikeout, unable to even make it out of the first inning. Also note that Liriano was just 2-5 with a ballooned 6.45 ERA in all “day” games a year ago. I’ll point out as well that Tampa Bay has seen the total go over the number in four of seven this year against southpaws and in seven of nine “day” games, while Toronto has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of seven this year against clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck..Larry |
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04-28-17 | Clippers v. Jazz OVER 192.5 | Top | 98-93 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Clippers/Jazz (10:35 EST). LA doesn’t win games with its defense. Utah does though, ranked No. 1 in the league in that department. The Jazz don’t usually “shoot the lights” out either. The Clippers’ backs are against the wall and they’re fighting an uphill battle on the road without major contributor Blake Griffin to help, but they won’t be going down without a fight. LA has to take control of the tempo/pace of this game if it has any hopes of pushing it to a decisive Game 7. So that means taking the Jazz out of their “comfort zone,” which is typically a slower paced affair with a lot of trapping and half court sets on the offensive end. This is unchartered territory for most of the Jazz and they’ll be equally as hyped to just end the series here and now and get ready for the next round. In my opinion, the overall “situation” definitely lends itself to a faster paced Game 6. Also note that LA has in fact seen the total go over the number in four of its last five off an upset loss as a favorite, while Utah has seen the total sail above the posted number in four of six this season off an upset win as an underdog. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-17 | Oilers v. Ducks -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 30 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:30 EST). As the playoffs wear on, the stakes continue to rise. This is now essentially the Ducks’ most important game of the entire season. A 2-0 hole heading back to Edmonton would likely be just too much for Anaheim to dig out of. It’s “do-or-die” for the Ducks and I expect them to answer the challenge. Anaheim has to be feeling pretty confident too, as despite dropping Game 1, it’s still won nine of the last 12 home games in this series. I think the goaltenders are a “wash” in this series, as Edmonton’s Cam Talbot and Anaheim’s John Gibson are very evenly matched numbers wise, both in the regular season and in the playoffs. During the regular season, the Oilers were a bit better offensively than the Ducks, but Anaheim was better on the defensive end. As I said, these teams are clearly very evenly matched. Experience is one department which favors the Ducks though. It didn’t matter in Game 1, but I do think it’ll have an impact in Game 2. The senior members of Anaheim have been in this spot before and know what it takes to prevail. Certainly the Ducks won’t be panicking. Conversely, it’s not too hard to imagine the younger Oilers coming in a tiny bit complacent here after their upset win, just happy to earn the split they wanted and looking ahead to the comforts of home. For all the reasons listed above, play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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04-28-17 | Cubs v. Red Sox +106 | 4-5 | Win | 106 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). Boston fell 3-0 to New York last night, wasting another big effort from ace Chris Sale. The Red Sox will be looking to atone, which I think spells doom for Jake Arrieta and the visiting Cubs. Arrieta (3-0, 3.65 ERA) was most recently shelled for five runs (four earned) off eight hits over six innings in a fortunate victory over the Reds on Saturday. Arrieta has now given up at least three runs in each of his last three outings. The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (1-1, 4.80) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Orioles on Friday, allowing two runs off five hits while striking out four over six innings in what would turn out to be an unfortunate loss once it was all said and done. Despite a 4.60 ERA, Pomeranz has been very sharp in two of his three starts this year. I think Pomeranz will outduel Arrieta and I look for Boston’s explosive offense to finally get some production. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-17 | A's +108 v. Angels | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST). I think Kendall Graveman and the A’s offer tremendous value in this spot as I look for Oakland to respond after falling 8-5 last night. Graveman (2-0, 2.00 ERA) is back in the rotation after a ten-day stint on the DL because of a shoulder issue. He owns a 12:5 K:BB ratio and 1.00 WHIP over his first 18 innings of work. He worked through an intense bullpen session on Friday and reportedly feels fantastic. The home side counters with the volatile Ricky Nolasco (1-2, 4.76) who was initially supposed to start against the Jays on Monday, but who had it pushed back until today. The veteran has struggled by serving up seven home runs over his first four starts, lucky too that several have been of the solo variety. Graveman comes in on top form, while Nolasco clearly has more questions than answers at the moment. For the most part, MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Graveman has a big advantage. All things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price, play on Oakland. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-17 | Spurs -4 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-96 | Win | 100 | 35 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:35 EST). The best player in this series has been Kawhi Leonard for the Spurs, so far he’s averaged 31 points per game on 57 percent shooting. I’m expecting the best player in this series to lead his team to a convincing series clinching victory on the road tonight. San Antonio steam rolled its way to two big wins at home, but then the Grizzlies responded in kind on their home floor in Game’s 3 and 4. The Spurs once again defended their home court in Game 5 with a resounding 116-103 victory. So far home court has played a big part in this series, but I think that trend ends this evening. The Spurs are shooting a combined 48.3 percent from the floor, as Memphis’ normally stout defense has started to show signs of fatigue. Experience, depth and leadership (Popovich) all count at this point of a series. I’ll point out that San Antonio is 10-4 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Memphis is just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a loss by ten points or more. The Grizzlies put up a much bigger fight than expected, but all signs point to a Spurs blowout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-17 | Penguins +125 v. Capitals | Top | 3-2 | Win | 125 | 32 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:30 EST). I think the defending champs offer great value to take Game 1 tonight. Pittsburgh smashed the Blue Jackets in five games in the first round, while Washington needed six to dispatch the Leafs. Note that these teams split a pair of games in the regular season. The Pens have to be feeling pretty confident though as they’d bounce the Capitals in six games in the second round last year. Pittsburgh comes in with a ton of momentum as well, as it would score 21 goals in the five game series win over Columbus. Evgeni Malkin was huge with two goals and nine assists. Marc Andre Fleury was strong in Round 1, finishing the series with a 2.52 GAA. TJ Oshie was a standout for Washington in the series win over Toronto with three goals and four assists. Braden Holtby looked kind of average against the Leafs, but still finished with a 2.36 GAA. The numbers support Pittsburgh tonight, as the Pens are 20-7-1 in their last 28 after scoring more than five goals in their previous outing, while the Capitals are just 1-7 in their last eight when playing on three or more days rest. If the Capitals thought they had their hands full with Toronto, they’re going to be in for a big surprise this evening. This Penguins team is firing on all cylinders offensively and I have a hard time seeing Washington keeping up. Play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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04-27-17 | Mariners v. Tigers -142 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 23 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST). After getting spanked 8-0 last night, I expect the home side to respond in kind this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Hisashi Iwakuma (0-2, 5.31 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off five hits and four walks over 5.1 innings in Friday’s 3-1 loss to the A’s. Iwakuma struggled in spring training, giviving up ten earned runs over three of his last four starts and those early issues have clearly been carried over into the regular season. He also issued multiple walks for the third time in four starts. Iwakuma has now given up nine earned runs on 12 hits (including three dingers) and four walks over 8.1 innings spanning his last two trips to the hill. The home side counters with Justin Verlander (1-2, 6.04) who gave up four runs off three hits and six walks to go along with four K’s over five innings in 6-3 loss to the Twins on Friday. Verlander shut out Minnesota over his first five innings, but then everything can unravelled in the sixth. Verlander has now given up 13 runs over his last two starts. Clearly not the results he was hoping for, but the good news is that his fastball velocity remains over 94 MPH. I don’t think there’s any need to panic if you’re a Verlander fan, as he clearly has a strong track record and should get his numbers normalized as the season progresses. I’ll point out that Seattle is already just 6-10 (-4.4 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Detroit is 9-5 (+4.4 units) in all “day” games. While I don’t have a ton of faith in either of these starters, I certainly have a lot more in Verlander at this point. Iwakuma has been sliding since the end of last season and after getting thumped yesterday, this Detroit line-up will be primed for some revenge. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Oilers v. Ducks -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 35 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:30 EST). Edmonton needed six games to get by San Jose, while Anaheim steam-rolled Calgary in four straight. The Oilers were led by Connor McDavid, who had 40 goals in the regular season and two in the series victory over the Sharks. The visitors turn to Cam Talbot between the pipes and he was 4-2 with a 2.03 GAA against San Jose. Edmonton finished the season averaging 2.96 GPG and conceding 2.52. The Oilers are 24-20 on the road this year, which is one of the big reasons why the team is back in the playoffs. The Ducks were 31-12 at the Honda Center though. Ryan Getzlaf had three goals in four games against the Flames. John Gibson gets the call in net for the home side, he’d finish 3-0 with a 2.60 GAA against Calgary (note that he’s 4-3 with a 1.84 GAA lifetime against Edmonton). Anaheim averages 2.68 GPG and concedes 2.40. I’ll point out as well that Edmonton is just 17-40 in its last 57 road games when playing on three or more days rest, while Anaheim is 13-3 in its last 16 following a victory. The Oilers are just 2-9 in their last 11 at the Honda Center. The Ducks have had a few extra days rest. When you add it all up, I think the value is clearly on the home side in Game 1. Play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Dodgers v. Giants +108 | 3-4 | Win | 108 | 13 h 56 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I like the home side to bounce back here after yesterday’s 2-1 loss. The visitors hands the ball to Alex Wood (1-0, 3.29 ERA), who was rocked for four runs off seven hits over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Wood was making a spot start in place on the injured Rich Hill and would struggle. Wood had looked pretty decent before that in a “swingmans” role, but note that he was horrible in this spot last season, going 0-4 with a 5.73 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Johnny Cueto (3-1, 5.25), who also comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up six runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Friday. Coors Field is tough on all pitchers and Cueto was no exception. Cueto has two good outings and two poor ones so far this year. Both poor ones came in difficult parks, Coors and Chase Field. Cueto though was dominant at AT&T Park last year, going 8-3 with a 2.79 ERA. I’ll point out as well that LA is already just 2-7 (-8.3 units) this year after a victory, while San Francsico is 56-50 (+8.4 units) in its last 106 against southpaws. I don't think Cueto is getting much respect in this matchup, play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -125 | 8-5 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 22 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). Zack Godley struggled in the majors last year, going 5-4 with a 6.39 ERA in his rookie season. Godley is back for his debut tonight though and I think he’ll outduel his volatile counterpart. Godley finished his minors stint by posting a 2.55 ERA through 17.2 innings. The visitors counter with Trevor Cahill (1-2, 3.44) who comes in off a decent outing on Friday against the Marlins, holding them to one run off three hits over seven innings in the eventual 5-3 victory. Cahill faces a much stiffer test in Arizona’s big bats though obviously. The Friars are 8-14 overall this year, while the D-Backs are 14-8. Also note that San Diego is already a horrible 4-10 (-4.3 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 9-5 (+5.2 units) in the same position. I look for Arizona to build off yesterday’s 9-3 victory, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Bulls v. Celtics -8 | Top | 97-108 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Celtics (8:30 EST). I’ve successfully played on and against each of these teams so far in this series. So far in this series, home floor has not been an advantage, with Chicago taking Game’s 1 and 2 and the Celtics returning the favor in Game’s 3 and 4. Isaiah Thomas was blind-sided by the death of his sister just before the series started, so it was a great situation to take advantage of in the first two games. But as the series wore on, Thomas was able to adjust and cope and clearly he looked a lot better on the road. I think Thomas though continues his dominant play and has his best game of the playoffs thus far. Chicago got big production from Rajon Rondo in the first two games, but he injured his wrist and missed the next two. He’s also been ruled out for Game 5. Clearly it’s a big blow for the chemistry of the Bulls’ offense. Thomas had 33 points in Sunday’s 104-95 victory: “I just try to play the same way no matter who’s out there on the floor (defensively),” Thomas said. “I have a job to do, and that’s to score the basketball, make plays for others and be the leader.” I’ll point out that Chicago is already just 5-10 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Boston is 3-1 ATS in its last four after holding an opponent to 96 points or less. Look for Boston to continue its surge and lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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04-26-17 | Twins v. Rangers -147 | 3-14 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). I think this line could easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to Hector Santiago (2-1, 2.19 ERA), who gave up thre runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings in a 6-3 win over to the Tigers on Friday. The southpaw followed a similar pattern last year, only to then start falling apart once the calendar turned to May. The home side counters with ace Cole Hamels (1-0, 2.77), who gave up one run off three scattered hits and two walks while striking out three over eight innings in a 6-2 win over Kansas City on Friday. Hamels would go on to throw 71 of his 107 pitches for strikes. The Twins blew out the Rangers 8-1 yesterday, so clearly the home side will be out to atone for the lacklustre effort. Also note that Minnesota is just 37-60 (-5 units) in its last 97 as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Texas is 60-53 (+17.1 units) in its last 113 against left-handed starters. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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