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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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02-24-17 | Heat v. Hawks -3.5 | Top | 108-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* REVENGE BLOWOUT is on the Atlanta Hawks (8:05 EST). Miami was one of the hotttest teams in the league heading into the All Star break, winning 14 out of its final 16 games, including big victories over Houston, Golden State and these very Atlanta Hawks. Wiill “rest lead to rust” though for the Heat? I think the answer is yes. And now the Hawks look to take advantage and to avenge the earlier setback. Atlanta is just 2.5 games out of third place and will be eager to return after dropping three of its final five leading up to the break. Goran Dragic leads the way for Miami with 20.3 points and 6.2 assists per game, while Dwight Howard is the leader in Atlanta with 13.5 points and 13 boards per game. I’ll point out that Miami is just 13-14 ATS against teams with winning records this year and only 11-12 ATS after a non-conference game, while Atlanta is 8-6 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more and 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with losing records. Divisional contests are always the toughest and they almost always mean more to the home side. After losing the first matchup of the year between the clubs, the Hawks will be out to make a statement tonight. And note, with a game tomorrow at home against the Pacers, it’s not too difficult to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-24-17 | Flames v. Panthers -150 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -150 | 27 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Florida Panthers (7:35 EST). The 31-26-2-2 Calgary Flames are in Florida to take on the 28-21-5-5 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the Flames enter off a highly satisfying and hard-fought 3-2 win in Tampa just last night. Florida will be eager to take advantage and to get back on track after a tough 4-3 home loss to Edmonton. Also note that this is a revenge game for the Panthers after they fell 5-2 in the first meeting between the clubs earlier in the season. And I’ll point out that Calgary has struggled in this spot mightily for bettors, going just 6-13 in its last 19 in the third game of a 3-in-4 situation and only 1-5 in its last six in the second game of the back-to-back, while Florida has excelled in this position, going 7-3 in its last ten with one days rest. Florida had won five straight games on the road and then returned home to get beaten by Edmonton. Many view such a scenario as a classic “letdown” spot for a team. No such situational advantage working in favor of the Flames tonight though. Lay the price, play on the Panthers. Good luck…Larry |
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02-24-17 | Brown +2.5 v. Dartmouth | Top | 80-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Brown (7:00 EST). A couple of cellar dwellers go head-to-head on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Bears have lost five in a row, most recently a 66-51 setback at home to conference leading Princeton. But Brown plays with revenge tonight after falling 77-74 to the Big Green at home less than two weeks ago. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and one which I think will prove to be the difference once it’s all said and done. Dartmouth is poised for a letdown here after winning three of its last five. The Bears actually had a four point lead at half time in the first meeting between the teams, but they were unable to hold it together down the stretch. Evan Boudreaux had 21 points and 13 boards for Dartmouth, while Steven Speith had 31 points, eight boards, a block, two assists and three steals in the loss for Brown. I’ll point out though that Brown has been solid in this spot for bettors, going 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 60 points or less and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 after three or more consecutive SU losses, while Dartmouth is already 0-2 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite and just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival. I think the home side comes in complacent and the hungry Bears take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Wisconsin v. Ohio State +5 | Top | 73-83 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ohio State (9:00 EST). The 22-5 Wisconsin Badgers are at Ohio State to take on the 15-13 Buckeyes on Thursday night and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the hungry home side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Ohio State has clearly not had a great season, but it would love nothing more than to get the upset at home over the conference’s No. 1 team. UW ended a two-game slide with a 71-60 home win over No. 23 Maryland on Sunday. Nigel Hayes had 21 points, while Ethan Happ added 20. The 60 points given up was its fewest in Big Ten action this year as well. But note, the Badgers haven’t been perfect this season, especially from the free throw line as they shoot just 66.5 percent, ranking them 12th in the conference and 286th in the nation overall. Thad Matta could very well be on his way out at Ohio State, but his team tried its best last time out, coming up just short in the 58-57 setback to Nebraska last Saturday. Jae’Sean Tate had 14 points and ten boards. Note that the Buckeyes have had eight contests decided by two or less points on the season and OSU is just 1-2 in games decided by one point. I’ll point out though that Wisconsin is just 3-7 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival and only 3-5 ATS on the road, while Ohio State is 2-1 ATS this season after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games and 3-2 ATS in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. I think the home side catches the Badgers a little flat-footed. Grab the points, play on Ohio State. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Knicks +10.5 v. Cavs | Top | 104-119 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 42 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the New York Knicks (8:00 EST). The 23-24 New York Knicks are in Cleveland to take on the 39-16 Cavaliers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. New York is at a cross roads right now, as it’s still in the playoff picture, but clearly needing some better play and some type of surge to stay in the conversation. The Cavs are in first in the East and look forward to a favorable part of their schedule with three straight games at home over inferior opponents. After the extended All Star break, could the defending champs come out a bit flat in the opener? Possibly. The Knicks however absolutely can not take anything for granted and need to start stringing some victories together immeidately. Obviously an outright upset win on the road against the Cavs would be a monumental step in the right direction for the club. And while I’m not going to predict an outright upset, I do think from a motivational stand point that this one sets up great for the visitors tonight. Remember, Kevin Love is still out for Cleveland as well. And note that the Knicks have in fact done well in this spot for bettors, going 15-8 ATS after a non-conference game, 1-0 ATS when playing with one more days rest and 11-6 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while the Cavaliers have struggled in this position, going just 5-11 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories and only 10-16 ATS against teams with losing records. I think the home side comes out a bit flat and the desperate Knicks take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Rangers v. Maple Leafs -115 | 2-1 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:30 EST). The 38-19-0-2 Rangers are in Toronto to take on the 28-20-5-6 Leafs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Rangers enter off a deflating 3-2 shootout loss at home to Montreal, while the Leafs come in off a momentum building 5-4 OT home win over the Jets. These teams have split a pair of games already this year, with the road team winning each time. Suffice it to say, i think that pattern ends tonight. New York had been on quite the roll, but has started to regress a little of late, losing two of its last three. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 12-7 with a 2.37 GAA on the road, while for his career against Toronto he’s gone 14-14 with a 2.79 GAA. The Rangers average 3.32 GPG and concede 2.59. The Leafs average 3.14 GPG (1st in power play conversions, 22.9 percent of chances) and concede 2.90. Frederik Andersen is 14-13 with a 2.71 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Toronto is already 9-3 (+6.2 units) this season in revenging a home loss against an opponent. I think the situation favors the Leafs tonight. All things considered, I believe we’re getting a great price on the home side. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Islanders v. Canadiens -148 | 3-0 | Loss | -148 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Montreal Canadiens (7:35 EST). The 28-21-7-3 New York Islanders are in Montreal to take on the 32-20-6-2 Canadiens and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Isles enter off a 3-1 road win over Detroit and have won six of their last nine, while the Habs come in on the other end of the spectrum, now desperate to start turning things around after losing seven of their last nine. Montreal did get some momentum rolling though with a nice 3-2 road win at New York over the Rangers in a shootout last time out. New York goaltender Thomas Greiss is 7-9 with a 2.60 GAA on the road this year. The Isles average 2.98 GPG and concede 2.92. The Habs average 2.78 GPG and concede 2.55. Goaltender Carey Price is 17-10 with a 2.19 GAA at home. I’ll point out that New York is just 11-15 (-1.9 units) this season when playing against teams with winning records, while Montreal is 17-11 (+2.2 units) against clubs with losing records. I think the desperation level in which the home side plays with today turns out to be the difference. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Flames v. Lightning -141 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -141 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (7:35 EST). The 30-26-2-2 Calgary Flames are in Tampa Bay to take on the 27-24-5-3 Lightning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Calgary looks poised for a classic letdown here after its big 6-5 OT win on the road over Nashville. Tampa most recently was very business like in its 4-1 clobbering of Edmonton. When these teams played back in December, it was the Bolts that prevailed easily 6-3 and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance here. Calgary may be fighting for a playoff spot, but note that it’s just 19th in scoring with 2.60 GPG, while 18th in goals allowed by conceding 2.83. Brian Elliot is 7-10 with a poor 3.14 GAA on the road thus far. The Lightning average 2.73 GPG and concede 2.78. Ben Bishop is 9-5 with a 2.65 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Calgary is just 4-10 in its last 14 after scoring five goals or more in its previous contest, while Tampa is 47-20 in its last 67 home games against teams with losing road records. Tampa is also fighting for playoff positioning and is 4-1 in its last five at home in this series. All things considred, I think we’re getting a very fair price in this one, play on the Lightning. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Texas-San Antonio v. Florida International -3.5 | Top | 69-67 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (7:00 EST). The 11-16 UTSA Roadrunners are at FIU to take on the 6-21 Golden Panthers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Neither team will be playing in any postseason tournaments. The Roadrunners come into this one having lost three straight, while the Panthers enter having dropped six of their last seven. So where does the motivation come from in a game like this? For me, I think the Panthers have the advantage as they play with revenge after a narrow 68-63 setback at UTSA back on January 12th. FIU has been “oh-so-close” as well of late, most recently falling 69-66 to Southern Miss in OT last Thursday. However, the Panthers will be looking to atone for a lacklustre 77-61 setback to Louisiana Tech in their last one. Donte McGill was a bright spot though with 20 points. I’ll point out that UTSA is just 2-7 ATS this year against teams with losing records and only 1-2 ATS after allowing 80 points or more, while FIU is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival. Florida Atlantic has four players with average double figures. I think the home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-23-17 | Northeastern +4 v. Elon | Top | 105-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Northeastern (7:00 EST). The 14-14 Northeastern Huskies are at Elon to take on the 17-12 Phoenix and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. It’s an important end of the season matchup for both teams, as Northeastern is looking to hold onto sixth spot in the CAA at 7-9. Elon is tied with William & Mary for fourth place at 9-7. But I think the Huskies are going to be the “hungrier” team today after three straight losses and dropping five of their last six, including an 85-71 home loss to Charleston on Saturday. These teams played against each other on January 26th and the Phoenix managed the 51-49 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another tightly contested affair this time around as well as the revenge-minded Huskies look for a little payback on the road. Northeastern averages 71.8 PPG and allows 70.4. TJ Wiliams leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points and 5.1 assists per game. Elon averages 74.2 PPG and allows 70.9. Tyler Seibring averages 14.1 PPG to lead the team. I’ll point out though that Northeastern is already 2-1 ATS this year in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 6-4 ATS against teams with winning records, while Elon is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a home fav of 3.5 to six points and only 10-12 ATS in its last 22 games played in the month of February. Northeastern has talent, it beat Michigan State and UConn earlier in the year and it also plays with revenge. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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02-22-17 | Bruins v. Ducks -110 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:35 EST). The 30-23-4-2 Boston Bruins are in Anaheim to take on the 31-20-8-2 Ducks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I feel the Bruins are primed for a classic letdown here after winning four straight, most recently a 2-1 OT victory over San Jose. Conversely, I look for the home side to risk life and limb today as it looks to bounce back off an ugly 3-2 road loss to the lowly Coyotes last time out. Boston has looked a lot better under interim coach Brad Cassidy, but I simply expect it to finally run out of gas here. Tuukka Rask has been a strong point once again for the team this season, he’s 28-17 with a 2.24 GAA on the year. Note though that Rask has had difficulties with the Ducks throughout his career, going just 1-5 with a poor 3.48 GAA. And despite the recent up-tick in play, the Bruins are still ranked 18th in scoring at 2.66 GPG, while ranked 11th on the defensive end in conceding 2.61. The Ducks average 2.59 GPG and concede 2.50. John Gibson is expected to get the call in net tonight and he’s 23-23 with a 2.24 GAA on the year and 15-9 with a 2.06 GAA in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out that Boston has already struggled in this spot big time for bettors this season though, going just 13-16 (-6.9 units) in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and just 1-4 (-3.2 units) after a three-game unbeaten streak. When taking into account all of the factors listed above, I think the home side offers great value in this spot, play on the Ducks. Good luck…Larry |
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02-22-17 | Oregon v. California +3 | 68-65 | Push | 0 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on California (9:00 EST). The 24-4 Oregon Ducks are in California to take on the 18-8 Golden Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think Oregon has a bit of a letdown here after winning three straight, most recently pounding Colorado 101-73 at home. Conversely, the Bears will be risking life and limb today as they’ve lost two in a row, most recently a 73-68 setback at Stanford as the favorites. Note that this one does indeed set up as a “revenge” game for the home side after it fell 86-63 in the first matchup in Oregon. If the Ducks have had one weakness this year though, it has in fact been their play on the road where they’ve averaged just 73.6 PPG, while conceding 69.4. Dillon Brooks averages 15.4 PPG and had 23 in the win over the Buffs. The Bears average 72.2 PPG at home, while conceding just 60.3. Jabari Bird had 23 points in the latest setback to the Cardinal. I’ll point out though that Oregon is just 2-3 ATS this year against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Cal is 4-2 ATS as an underdog and 2-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. The Bears are a tough defensive team and they’ll be risking life and limb today to score the upset. I’m expecting this to be a highly competitive affair and look for it to come down to the final possession. Grab as many points as you can, play on Cal. Good luck…Larry |
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02-22-17 | Louisville +5 v. North Carolina | Top | 63-74 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 18 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Louisville (9:00 EST). The 22-5 Louisville Cardinals are in North Carolina to take on the 23-5 Tar Heels and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. UNC has won two straight, including an impressive 65-41 victory over No. 18 Virginia last time out. The Cardinals have won three straight and six of seven, most recently a 94-90 victory over Virginia Tech on Saturday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Cardinals have to be liking their chances for the upset today as when these teams met in their lone matchup a year ago, Louisville came out on top 71-65. Donovan Mitchell had 19 points for the Cardinals in the win over the Hokies. Note that Louisville averages 77.8 PPG and concedes just 64.1 UNC averages 86.9 PPG and concedes 71. Justin Jackson leads the team with an average of 18.6 PPG. I’ll point out though that Louisville is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six road games and 6-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss, while UNC is just 2-3 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less. The Cardinals have the size to compete with UNC on the boards. This one is coming down to the wire, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-22-17 | Minnesota v. Maryland UNDER 142 | 89-75 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Minnesota/Maryland (8:30 EST). The 20-7 Minnesota Golden Gophers are in Maryland to take on the 22-5 Terrapins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Minnesota is 8-6 in Big 10 action, tied for fifth with Michigan State. Maryland is 10-4 in conference play after losing at Wisconsin on Sunday. The Terps suffered an additional setback after losing backup center Michal Cekovsky for the season due to a fractured ankle. When these teams met on January 28th, Maryland prevailed 85-78. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much more defensive affair this time around. The Gophers will be out to avenge that setback today and they come to town red hot, having won five straight, including a thrilling 83-73 OT win over Michigan on Sunday. Minnesota averages just 75.4 PPG, but concedes only 68.6 (the Gophers also only allow 30.2 percent 3-point shooting, which ranks them 13th in the nation). Guard Nate Mason leads the nightly charge with 15 points and 5.3 assists per game. Maryland averges only 74.9 PPG, but concedes just 66.9. Melo Trimble leads the Terps with 17.6 PPG. I’ll point out that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in five of eight this year on the road and in five of eight after scoring 80 points or more, while Maryland has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of 13 at home this season and in eight of 13 when playing the role of favorite. I’m expecting an all out war, where every possession is contested early. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-21-17 | Blackhawks v. Wild -130 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Wild (8:00 EST). The 36-18-5 Chicago Blackhawks are in Minnesota to take on the 39-13-6 Wild and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side. The Hawks came out of their “bye” week and lost 3-1 at home to the Oilers. Chicago bounced back though with a big 5-1 win at Buffalo on Sunday, led by Patrick Kane with a goal and an assist. It was Scott Darling that got the call in net against the Sabres, but it’s Corey Crawford expected between the pipes tonight. And he’ll square off against Devan Dubnyk, who has won five of his last six. The Wild are fourth overall in scoring at 3.3 GPG, while Dubnyk is in line for the Vezina. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 1-4 in its last five road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Minnesota is a perfect 4-0 in its last four when playing on two days rest. Minnesota starts its bye week on Wednesday, so I’m expecting it to leave everything on the ice tonight as it goes for broke before the extended layoff. Play on the Wild. Good luck…Larry |
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02-21-17 | Jets v. Maple Leafs -138 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:30 EST). The 28-29-5 Winnipeg Jets are in Toronto to take on the 27-20-1 Maple Leafs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Jets have a letdown here after winning two straight. The Leafs will look to take advantage, they’re fresh off a 4-0 shutout victory over Carolina. It’s an important game for Toronto as it looks to stay in the playoff picture in the Atlantic division. The Jets have plenty of offensive talent in Rookie of the Year candidate Patrik Laine and center Mark Scheifele, but Winnipeg is brutal defensively this year, ranking dead last in goals against. Toronto also has plenty of offensive fire-power this season, including rookie sensation Auston Matthews. But the Leafs have gotten much more consistent goaltending thus far. I’ll point out that Winnipeg is just 9-16 (-8.3 units) this season in non-conference games, while Toronto is 2-1 (+1 unit) after shutting out its opponent this season. All things considered, I think we’re getting a very fair price in this one, play on the Leafs. Good luck…Larry |
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02-21-17 | Canadiens v. Rangers -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 28 h 36 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Rangers (7:00 EST). The 31-20-6-2 Montreal Canadiens are in New York to take on the 39-19-0-1 Rangers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Montreal continues to stumble, it’s now lost seven of its last eight and is off a 3-1 home loss to the Jets. The Rangers on the other hand have won seven of their last eight and are off a 2-1 home victory over the Capitals. Habs’ goaltender Carey Price is just 7-10 with a 2.85 GAA on the road. Note that Montreal averages 2.80 GPG and concedes 2.56. New York averages 3.34 GPG (2nd in the league) and concedes 2.60. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 15-8 with a 2.88 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Montreal is just 1-2 (-1.3 units) in its last three after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while the Rangers are 2-1 (+1.2 units) in their last three after holding their previous opponent to one goal or less. Lundqvist is the difference maker for me in this one as he’s allowed just 2.1 GPG over his last ten starts. Price has been good at home, but poor on the road. I’m laying what I deem to be a very reasonable price on the red hot home side. Good luck…Larry |
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02-21-17 | South Carolina +10 v. Florida | 66-81 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on South Carolina (7:00 EST). Florida is currently tied for first in the SEC with No. 11 Kentucky with a 12-2 league record. But I think the Gators have a letdown here after winning eight straight. Conversely, the Gamecocks come in ultra focused and hungry after dropping three of their last four. Keep your eyes on Sindarious Thornwell for South Carolina, he’s averaging 20.2 PPG. The Gamecocks average 73 PPG and give up just 64.1. The Gators average 79.5 PPG and allow 65.9. These teams met earlier in the year and South Carolina came out on top of a very defenisve affair 57-53. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a very similar battle this evening. I’ll point out that South Carolina is already 4-2 ATS as an underdog this year, while Florida is 0-3 ATS this season as a home fav in the 9.5 to 12 points range. I think Thornwell has another big game and the desperate visitors take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-21-17 | Rhode Island -3 v. La Salle | 67-56 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Rhode Island (6:00 EST). The 17-9 Rhode Island Rams are at La Salle to take on the 14-11 Explorers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Rams look to continue to build momentum after they broke a two-game slide with a 77-74 road win over George Mason on Saturday. La Salle also broke a two-game skid with an 83-68 home victory over Saint Joseph’s on Saturday. Note that this is a revenge game for Rhode Island after it lost 87-75 at home in the first meeting back on January 12th. Stanford Robinson was a stand out for the Rams in their last victory, scoring a career-high 21 points off the bench. So far Rhode Island averages 73.7 PPG and concedes just 66.2. La Salle averages 77.8 PPG and concedes 77.6. The Explorers shoot a solid 46.6 percent from the floor. I’ll point out that Rhode Island is already 5-3 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival and 2-1 ATS after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games, while La Salle is just 2-5 ATS as an underdog this season and only 3-4 ATS off a win against a conference rival. I think this is a great spot for the Rams and believe their tough defensive play will prove to be the difference. Play on Rhode Island. Good luck…Larry |
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02-21-17 | Purdue v. Penn State +8 | 74-70 | Win | 100 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (6:00 EST). The 22-5 Purdue Boilermakers are at Penn State to take on the 14-13 Nittany Lions and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the home side to keep this one competitive until the final moments. I think Purdue comes in a bit complacent here after winning its fifth straight, hammering Michigan State 80-63 at home on Saturday. Conversely, the Nittany Lions will be looking to get back into the winners circle after they had their two-game win streak snapped in an 82-66 road loss to Nebraska on Tuesday. To say this is a “revenge” game for Penn State would be a bit of an understatement I think as well as the Boilermakers have taken eight of the last ten meetings, including four straight (that includes a 77-52 home win in the first matchup this year back on January 21st). Purdue averages 81.3 PPG and concedes 66. Caleby Swanigan leads the nightly charge with 18.9 points and 13 boards per contest. The Nittany Lions average 72.2 PPG and concede 71.8. Tony Carr leads the way with 12.6 points and 4.7 boards per game (he had 15 points and seven boards in the loss to Nebraska). I’ll point out though that Purdue is just 2-4 ATS this year on the road, while Penn State is 7-4 ATS home and 5-3 ATS in its last eight when trying to revenge a blowout loss to opponent of 20 points or more (it’s also 4-2 ATS this year in revenging a road loss against an opponent). I think Penn State is the “hungrier” team today and look for it to give the Boilermakers everything they can handle. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-20-17 | Texas +16 v. West Virginia | Top | 62-77 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on Texas (9:00 EST). The 10-17 Texas Longhorns are in West Virginia to take on the 21-6 Mountaineers and while I won’t be sold bold as to predict an outright upset, for a number of different reasons I believe the visitors can keep this one closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. I simply feel that the Longhorns will be the much “hungrier” team tonight as they come in having lost three straight, most recently a tough 64-61 home setback to K-State on Saturday. Conversely, No. 9 WVU comes in complacent in my opinion, it’s won three of its last four, including a very satisfying 83-74 double OT victory over Texas Tech on Saturday. These teams played on January 14th and it was WVU that scored the narrow 74-72 road win. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar competitive affair this evening. The Longhorns average only 68.6 PPG, but concede just 69. Kendal Yancy was a bright spot in the loss to Kansas State with 13 points. WVU averages 85.6 PPG and concedes 66.8. Jevon Carter leads a balanced attack with an average of 12.2 PPG. Clearly the Mountaineers are the better team, but they struggled against the Longhorns already this year and I’m expecting another difficult war this evening. Texas won’t simply be rolling over and note, the Longhorns are in fact 6-3 ATS on the road this year, 9-6 ATS as an underdog and 3-1 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses, while WVU is just 5-6 ATS at home and only 3-5 ATS off a win against a conference rival. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-20-17 | Panthers v. Blues -132 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -132 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the St. Louis Blues (8:05 EST). The 27-20-5-5 Florida Panthers are in St. Louis to take on the 31-23-4-1 Blues and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Florida has been on quite the run of late, but I think finally suffers a letdown here. The Panthers have won seven of eight and four straight after beating the Kings 3-2 on the road last time out. The Blues are looking to get back on track after they had their six game win streak snapped in a 3-2 road loss to Buffalo on Saturday. And if recent history is any precedence, then St. Louis has to be loving it chances for an immediate return to the winners circle as when these tems met on February 12th, the Blues came away with the convincing 5-3 road victory. Note that despite the recent “up tick” in play of late, the Panthers still rank just 22nd in the league in scoring with an average of 2.5 GPG, while ranked 15th in goals allowed with 2.7 per contest. St. Louis averages 2.8 GPG and concedes 2.9. Note that the Blues though are fourth in the NHL on the penalty kill with an 84.6 percent success rate. I’ll point out as well the Florida has struggled in this spot all year, going 4-9 in their last 13 after allowing two goals or less in its previous game, while St. Louis has excelled in this spot, going 4-0 in its last four after scoring two goals or less in its previous outing. I think the home side offers great value in this spot, play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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02-19-17 | Kings v. Ducks -131 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Anaheim Ducks (9:05 EST). The 28-24-1-3 LA Kings are in Anaheim to take on the 30-18-8-2 Ducks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I had a play on the Kings just last night and they’d blow a golden opportunity in a 3-2 loss to the Panthers who were playing the second game of a back-to-back. Normally I don’t flip flop on teams from one night to the next, but in this case, tonight’s contest will be looked at entirely on its own and in my opinion, all signs do definitely point to the Ducks as the correct call. Anaheim will be desperate to get back into the winners circle after dropping five of its last seven, most recently a 4-1 setback to Florida on Friday (despite outshooting the Panthers 36-31 in that one). LA has done decently on the second game of a back-to-back over the years, but note that it’s just 40-50 (-28.4 units) in its last 90 following a non-conference contest, while Anaheim is already 11-2 (+9.4 units) this year after allowing four goals or more and 10-2 (+8.4 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous outing. All in all, I think we’re getting a really good price on the home side in this spot. Play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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02-19-17 | UNLV +14 v. San Diego State | Top | 64-77 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on UNLV (4:00 EST). The 10-16 UNLV Runnin’ Rebels are in San Diego to take on the 15-10 Aztecs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors ths visitors. The Runnin’ Rebels are desperate to stop a six-game slide and they came very close in their last game, eventually falling 76-74 to San Jose State on Saturday. Clearly SDSU is the better all around team and it’ll feel comfortable on its own floor tonight. The Aztecs though are going to come in complacent in my opinion after going 4-1 in their last five, most recently a victory over Utah State on Wednesday. This is a “revenge” game for the Runnin’ Rebels after falling 64-51 in the first regular season meeting at home last month. San Diego State has endured and up and down season compared to other years and was in last place in the Mountain West Conference as recently as of January 11th, before winning two in a row and four of its last five. So am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” Of course not. I simply feel this one sets up well for a UNLV team which is going to be pushing the pace from start to finsh and facing a now contented Aztec side which I think won’t be able to help itself in looking past their lowly opponent today, to their much more important game against Fresno State in the middle of the week (the team that currently sits just one position ahead of them in the standings). While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Play on UNLV. Good luck…Larry |
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02-19-17 | Connecticut v. Temple -2.5 | Top | 64-63 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Temple (4:00 EST). The 13-12 Conncecticut Huskies are at Temple to take on the 14-13 Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Huskies get caught a little flat-footed and content this afternoon after three straight victories. UConn most recently picked up a hard-fought 65-62 road win over Memphis. Meanwhile the Owls will be hungry to get back into the winners circle after their 78-64 road loss to East Carolina on Wednesday. Note that this also sets up as a “revenge” game for Temple, as it fell 73-59 at Connecticut earlier in the year. I think the Owls are going to be the much “hungrier” team overall today. Temple comes in off the loss and is out to avenge the earlier setback. The Huskies are ripe for the picking in my estimation. There’s no question that they’ve looked a lot better of late, but I think they’re now out of gas after three straight wins, including having to come back from a 14 point half-time deficit against the Tigers in their last one. Note that UConn averages only 67.8 PPG, while conceding just 65.5. The Owls average 70.7 PPG and concede 71.3. The numbers favor the Huskies, but the overall situation definitely favors the home side in my opinion. The trends also favor the Owls, as note that UConn is just 4-7 ATS as underdog this year, while Temple is 2-1 ATS in its last three at home and 2-1 ATS in its last three as the favorite. I’m laying the points and expecting the home side to risk life and limb for the victory today. Play on Temple. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Panthers v. Kings -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Kings (10:00 EST). The 25-20-5-5 Florida Panthers are in LA to take on the 28-24-1-3 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one, the Panthers come in off a hugely satisfying 4-1 win in Anaheim just last night and I think they’re primed for a predictable letdown here. The Panthers have been playing great of late, winning six of their last seven. Roberto Luongo is expected in net and he’s just 15-14-6 with a 2.71 GAA on the year. Note that Florida averages just 2.49 GPG and concedes 2.78. The Panthers have been especially poor on the power play though with just a 14.9 percent success rate. The Kings will be especially motivated here after a humbling 5-3 loss at home to the Coyotes on Thursday. Peter Budaj took the loss, but he still sits at an impressive 26-17-3 with a 2.15 GAA on the year. LA averages 2.50 GPG and concedes 2.46. I’ll point out that Florida is just 1-4 in its last five in the second game of the back-to-back scenario, while LA has won seven straight in this series on home ice. I expect that strong trend to continue here, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Virginia +3.5 v. North Carolina | Top | 41-65 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 53 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Virginia (8:15 EST). The 18-7 Virginia Cavaliers are in North Carolina to take on the 22-5 Tar Heels and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I believe for a number of different reasons that the visitors can at the very least, take this one down to the wire. UNC enters off a 24 point win on the road over NC State, bouncing back from an eight-point loss to Duke on Feb. 9th. I simply feel that the Cavs will be the “hungrier” side tonight, as they come into this one having lost two straight, including an 80-78 OT road loss at Virginia Tech on Sunday, before a 65-55 setback at home to Duke on Wednesday. These teams split their series last year, with UNC winning in the NCAA Tournament and Virginia winning at home. The Cavs had their shot against the Blue Devils, going into the break with a 25-21 lead, but clearly blew it in the second half. Point guard London Perrantes was a bright spot with 14 points. Virginia averages just 68.8 PPG, but makes up for it on the defensive end, conceding just 55.5 PPG, ranked No. 1 overall in the nation. The Cavs have an opportunity to finally get untracked offensively, as UNC has allowed an average of 78 PPG over its last five. The Tar Heels have averaged 80 PPG over that span, but now face their stiffest test of the season. Joel Berry II led the way for UNC in the latest victory with 18 points and six assists. I’ll point out though that North Caroilna is just 4-5 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Virginia is a perfect 3-0 ATS as an underdog and 3-1 ATS after scoring 60 points or less. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Arizona v. Washington +11 | 76-68 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington (8:00 EST). The 24-3 Arizona Wildcats are in Washington to take on the 9-17 Huskies and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do definitely think that that home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. If ever Arizona was ever going to come into a contest a tiny bit “complacent,” then this would be it. The No. 5 Wildcats have won three straight and are No. 1 in the Pac 12 with a 13-1 record. Washington on the other hand is just 2-12 in league play. The Huskies have lost eight straight, but are still fighting, most recently falling 83-81 at home against Arizona State on Thursday. Not surprisingly, this does indeed also set up as a “revenge” spot for the home side, as the Huskies would fall 77-55 at Arizona on January 29th. The Wildcats were killed by 27 on the road in Oregon on Feb. 4th, but have since bounced back to win three straight. On the year Arizona averages 74.9 PPG and concedes 63.3. Parker Jackson-Cartwright had 20 points in the latest win over Washington State. Washington has a great offense, but the defense has been the major issue, conceding an average of 81.1 PPG. But the Huskies are still clearly competing, keep your eyes on Markelle Fultz, who had 19 points and four assists in their most recent setback to ASU. I’ll point out that Arizona is just 2-3 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest and interestingly, only 1-2 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest, while Washington is 2-1 ATS against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. With a game at home against third ranked USC early next week, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Oilers v. Blackhawks -142 | 3-1 | Loss | -142 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Blackhawks (7:00 EST). The 31-19-8 Edmonton Oilers are in Chicago to take on the 35-17-5 Blackhawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Edmonton looks destined for a playoff spot and comes in having won two straight, most recently handling the lowly Coyotes 5-2 at home on Tuesday and then the Flyers 6-3 on Thursday. Connor McDavid had a goal and two assists against Philadelphia. Chicago though comes in playing some of its best hockey right now having won five straight. Note that the Hawks have scored at least four goals in each of those victories and not allowed more than three. Chicago hasn’t played since last Saturday, so comes in ultra rested and focused. I’ll point out that Edmonton is just 11-42 in its last 53 road games against a team with a home winning percentage over .600, while Chicago is 4-1 in its last five after allowing two goals or less in its previous contest. These team’s have split a pair of games in Edmonton already this year, but the Hawks have a huge advantage at home (note that the Oilers are 0-5 their last five in the Windy City). Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Senators v. Maple Leafs -139 | 6-3 | Loss | -139 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:00 EST). The 30-19-5-1 Ottawa Senators are in Toronto to take on the 26-19-5-6 Leafs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Ottawa looks primed for a letdown here after its 3-0 road win over New Jersey, while the Leafs will be eager to return to the winners circle after a 5-2 road loss to Columbus. The Sens have in fact won three of their last four. Goaltender Mike Condon is 17-14 with a 2.45 GAA this season. Craig Anderson is expected in net tonight though and he’s 13-8 with a 2.37 GAA on the year. Note that the Sens are just 18th in the league in scoring at 2.62 GPG, while ranked 11th on the defensive end in conceding 2.64. The Leafs average 3.09 GPG and concede 2.88. Scoring in the setback to Columbus was Nazem Kadri, who would actually score both goals. Frederik Andersen is expected in goal tonight and he’s 13-12 with a 2.61 GAA at home this season. I’ll point out that Ottawa is just 2-6 (-5.4 units) this season after shutting out its opponent in its previous game, while Toronto is 8-2 (+6.4 units) this year when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. I like the home side to find a way to get the job done once the final horn blares. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | James Madison v. Towson -8 | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Towson (7:00 EST). The 8-20 James Madison Dukes are at Towson to take on the 18-10 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Towson sits in third in the CAA after beating Elon at home on Thursday. Towson is now 10-5 in confernece action and this is its final home game of the season. James Madison is just 6-9 in league play, putting it in seventh. I think JMU is poised for a letdown here though after its big 95-92 win over William and Mary on Thursday. Note that this is a “revenge” game for the home side as well after it fell 64-44 in the first meeting from Harrisonburg. I’m not reading too much into the Dukes latest victory, as they came into that one having lost seven of their previous eight. All five JMU starters scored in double figures in the iwn over the Tribe. Note that James Madison averages 66.1 PPG and concedes 69.7. Towson averages 74.1 PPG and concedes 69. Mike Morsell had 32 points in the win over Elon. I’ll point out that JMU is 4-8 ATS on the road this year, 7-10 ATS as an underdog, 1-7 ATS when playing with one or less days rest and just 1-4 ATS after allowing 80 points or more, while Towson is 6-3 ATS off a win against a conference rival and 4-1 ATS in revenging a road loss against an opponent. I like Towson to avenge the earlier loss and to comfortably pull away down the stretch for the win and cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Notre Dame v. NC State +5.5 | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on NC State (12:00 EST). The 20-7 Notre Dame Fighting Irish are at NC State to take on the 14-13 Wolfpack and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, because for a number of different reasons I do indeed believe this one favors the home side. Notre Dame looks poised for a letdown after winning three in a row, most recently an 84-76 victory at Boston College. Conversely, NC State comes in with nothing to lose, except another game of course as the Wolfpack have now dropped six straight. The Fighting Irish could be running out of gas, they actually were down by ten points at half time to the Eagles, but somehow managed to battle back for the win. Bonzie Colson had 20 points in the victory. Note that the Irish average 75.5 PPG and allow 73.4 PPG in league play thus far. NC State averages 75 PPG, while conceding 87.4 in conference action. However, take note that at home the Wolfpack have averaged 85.4 PPG and allowed 76.7. Keep your eyes on Dennis Smith Jr, who averages 19 PPG. I’ll point out that Notre Dame is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after a three game or more unbeaten streak, while NC State is 2-1 ATS in its last three after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive contests. I think the Irish come in a bit complacent in the early afternoon matchup and the hungry home side at the very least, takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Clemson v. Miami (Fla) -3 | 65-71 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Miami Florida (12:00 EST). The 14-11 Clemson Tigers are in Miami to take on the 17-8 Hurricanes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Tigers come to town off a 95-83 home win over Wake Forest. Clemson though is just 4-9 in conference action. The Hurricanes are off a 70-61 home win over Georgia Tech to move to 7-6 in ACC play. I’m not reading too much into Clemson’s latest victory, despite the win the Tigers have still conceded an average of 84.5 PPG over their last four. Note that in true road games this year Clemson has averaged just 68.4 PPG and allowed 75.4. The Hurricanes have won five of their last seven and are now 12-2 at home so far this season. Miami has been particularly tough on everyone in front of the home town crowd, averaging 74.7 PPG and conceding just 62.3. Davon Reed had 21 points and seven boards in the victory over Georgia Tech. I’ll point out that Clemson is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine against teams with a winning percentage above .600, while Miami is 3-1-1 ATS the last five in this series when at home. I simply can’t see the inconsistent Tiger offense mustering any sort of attack against the Hurricanes smothering defense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-18-17 | Northern Iowa +17 v. Wichita State | Top | 44-73 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 41 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Northern Iowa (12:00 EST). The 14-12 Northern Iowa Panthers are in Wichita State to take on the 24-4 Shockers and while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do definitely think the visitors can keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This sets up as a revenge game for the Panthers after they fell 80-66 at home to Wichita State back on January 8th. Note though, the Panthers have recent history on their side still as they took two of three last year, including a 53-50 victory at Witchita State which snapped the Shockers 43-game home-court win streak. UNI comes in with plenty of momentum as it’s won four in a row and nine of its last ten. The Panthers sit a 9-6 in MVC play. Keep your eyes on Bennett Koch, who is averaging a team-best 15.2 points and 5.9 boards over his last ten games. The Shockers are 14-1 in conference action, but note that they’re just 1-4 ATS in their last five after a six game or more SU unbeaten streak. And note that UNI has in fact excelled in this spot, going 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent in which it was held to 66 points or less. Grab as many points as you can, play on Northern Iowa. Good luck…Larry |
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02-17-17 | Penguins v. Blue Jackets -103 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:05 EST). The 35-13-5-2 Pittsburgh Penguins are in Columbus to take on the 36-15-4-1 Blue Jackets and because of two situational factors and one very strong ATS trend, I think this one favors the home side. Pittsburgh played and won 4-3 in OT over Winnipeg just last night. Now the team has to board a plane and play against the revenge minded Blue Jackets, who are 20-8-1 at home this year (compared to Pittsburgh’s rather pedestrian 12-10-3 road record). This does indeed set up as a “revenge” game for Columubs after it fell 4-3 in OT in Pittsburgh on February 3rd (Columbus is 16-8, +7.6 units this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent). It’s a great situational play and there’s no doubt that the price is right as well. Play on the Blue Jackets. Good luck…Larry |
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02-17-17 | Cornell +2 v. Dartmouth | 69-65 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Cornell (7:00 EST). The 6-17 Cornell Big Red are at Dartmouth to take on the 5-16 Big Green and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Cornell enters off an 82-63 road loss to Pennsylvania, while Dartmouth comes in off a rare 77-74 road win over Brown last weekend. The Big Red scored the 75-62 home win over the Big Green earlier in the year and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance tonight. In that contest, Cornell’s Matt Morgan scored 22 points. So far Cornell averages 71.7 PPG, while conceding 77.1. Dartmouth is even worse, averaing just 65.8 PPG, while conceding 73. I’ll point out that Cornell is already 3-2 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival and a near-perfect 3-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more, while Dartmouth is just 2-3 ATS at home and only 2-3 ATS in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. I think Cornell can duplicate its winning effort over Dartmouth from earlier in the year. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-16-17 | Utah +10 v. Oregon | Top | 61-79 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Utah (9:00 EST). The 17-8 Utah Utes are in Oregon to take on the 22-4, No. 7 Ducks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Utes come in with momentum, having won two straight after losing three of four, most recently scoring the 85-61 home effort over Washington on Saturday. Oregon bounced back from a rare loss to UCLA in an 81-70 road victory over USC on Saturday. To say this is a “revenge” game for Utah though would be a bit of an understatement I think, as Oregon has taken nine of the last ten in the series, including a closely contested 73-67 road win on January 26th. So far Utah is 8-5 in conference play. Devon Daniels and Parker Van Dyke each had 16 points in the latest win over Washington. Note that the Utes average 80.5 PPG and concede just 67.9. Oregon averages 79 PPG and concedes 64.4. After the win over the Trojans, the Ducks stand at 11-1 in Pac-12 action. Dillon Brooks had 21 points in the win over USC. I’ll point out though that Utah is 6-2 ATS on the road this year, 5-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival and 8-5 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while Oregon is just 1-2 ATS in its last three playing against a team in a revenge scenario after holding that opponent to 67 points or less in the first contest. I won’t be so bold to predict an outright upset, but I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-16-17 | San Francisco +23.5 v. Gonzaga | Top | 61-96 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on San Francisco (9:00 EST). The 18-9 San Francisco Dons are in Gonzaga to take on the 26-0 Bulldogs and while I won’t be going out on a limb tonight and predicting an outright upset, I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Gonzaga smashed Saint Mary’s last weekend, while San Francisco had its four game win streak snapped in a loss to BYU last Saturday. Despite the loss to the Cougars, the Dons are off to their best 27-game start since 1999. San Francisco has gotten better as the season has worn on and it’s been especially stout on the defensive end, holding its last nine opponents to fewer than 70 points. San Francisco also ranks No. 1 in the WCC (27th nationally) in three-pointers made per game (9.3). Keep your eyes on Charles Minlend, who averages 10.2 PPG (I’ll point out that the Dons are already 4-1 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival and 6-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog). So far the Bulldogs have yet to be challenged this season. They steam rolled their way through the non-conference portion of their schedule and are 14-0 so far in league play. Nigel Williams-Goss leads the nightly charge with 15.7 PPG. Gonzaga averages 85.1 PPG and concedes 61.7. San Francisco’s offensive and defensive numbers aren’t that far off from the Bulldogs though. Clearly Gonzaga is the better team, but I think the stage is set for a small mental letdown tonight, leaving the back door open just enough for the talented visitors to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-16-17 | Wisconsin -1.5 v. Michigan | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Wisconsin (7:00 EST). This is an important game. Wisconsin is desperate to hold its lead atop the conference, while Michigan is still fighting to cement its spot in the Big Dance. The Badgers are 21-4 and will have something to prove to everyone today after a listless 66-59 setback at home to Northwestern. Wisconsin entered that contest on an eight-game win streak, but was flat from the opening tip. Note that over the last four seasons, the Badgers are 54-19 (.740) in road/neutral games, owning the fourth-best winning percentage in the country. Also over that span, UW is 33-9 (.786) in February/March regular season contests. Keep your eyes on Ethan Happ, who leads the team in points (15.7), rebounds (8.8), assists (2.8), blocks (1.5) and steals (2.5) per game. Also note that the Badgers are fourth in the nation in scoring defense, conceding just 60.4 PPG. Michigan has now won four of its last six. After beating rival Michigan State and then Indiana 75-63 on Sunday though, I think the Wolverines have a letdown here. Derrick Walton Jr. had 25 points in the victory over the Hoosiers. I’ll point out that Michigan is just 5-7 ATS against conference opponents this season, just 5-8 ATS at home and only 7-12 ATS against teams with winning records, while Wisconsin is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 60 points or less. If history is any precedence, then the Badgers are loving their chances today as they’ve won five in a row in Ann Arbor. Wisconsin won 68-65 in Madison in the first matchup this season and I think a similar final outcome is in the cards tonight. Play on the Badgers. Good luck…Larry |
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02-16-17 | William & Mary v. James Madison +3.5 | Top | 92-95 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on James Madison (7:00 EST). The 14-11 William & Mary Tribe are at James Madison to take on the 7-20 Dukes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Tribe come in off a satisfying 89-79 home win over Charleston, while the Dukes come off a heart-breaking 58-57 home loss to Delaware. These teams played last month and William & Mary edged JMU 73-72. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting another battle down to the wire tonight. Omar Prewitt was a stand out for the Tribe in their latest victory, finishing with 30 points. So far William & Mary averages 81.1 PPG and concedes 76.2. The Dukes average just 65 PPG, but concede just 68.9. Jackson Kent had 17 points in the loss to the Blue Hens. I’ll point out that the Tribe are just 4-8 ATS on the road this year and only 1-3 ATS in their last four after scoring 80 points or more, while JMU is already 3-1 ATS this season as a home dog in the 3.5 to six points range. James Madison was oh so close to a victory last time out and will be risking life and limb to try and score the upset today. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright win, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on James Madison. Good luck…Larry |
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02-16-17 | Senators v. Devils -107 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the New Jersey Devils (7:05 EST). The 29-19-5-1 Ottawa Senators are in New Jersey to take on the 24-22-8-2 Devils and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Ottawa enters off a 3-2 home loss to Buffalo, while New Jersey comes in off a 3-2 home win over Colorado. If recent history is any precedence, then clearly the Devils have to be liking their chances today as they’ve taken four of the last five in the series. Senators’ goaltender Craig Anderson is 13-8 with a 2.37 GAA on the year. Ottawa ranks 19th in the league in scoring at 2.61 GPG, while ranked 13th in goals allowed in conceding 2.69 per contest. The Devils are ranked just 29th in scoring at 2.29 GPG, while ranked 17th in goal allowed in conceding 2.80. Goaltender Cory Schneider looked good though in the victory over the Avs, he’s now 12-9 with a 2.41 GAA at home, while against Ottawa for his career he’s 6-2 with a 1.58 GAA. I’ll point out that Ottawa has really struggled in this spot for bettors all year, going a horrible 1-5 (-4.7 units) after playing three consecutive home games, while New Jersey is 2-1 (+1 units) in its last three in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think the hungry home side is not getting nearly enough respect, play on New Jersey. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Hawks +2.5 v. Clippers | Top | 84-99 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 54 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Hawks (10:35 EST). The 32-23 Atlanta Hawks are in LA to take on the 34-21 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the visitors. I believe that LA has a letdown after winning three straight and in the final game before the All Star break. The Hawks come to town off a confidence building 109-104 OT victory in Portland on Monday. Note that this sets up as a “revenge” game as well for the visitors after LA beat the Hawks by ten in Atlanta earlier in the year. Keep your eyes on the Hawks’ Paul Millsap tonight, he had 21 points, nine rebounds, five assists and four blocked shots in the victory over Portland. Atlanta averages 104.1 PPG and concedes 104.3. LA averages 108.1 PPG and concedes 104.5. Blake Griffin has stepped up his play of late, averaging 26 points, 7.5 assists and 10.3 boards over his last four games. I’ll point out though that that Clippers are just 8-12 ATS in non-conference games this year, just 9-10 ATS after a win by ten points or more and only 7-8 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories, while the Hawks are 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and 5-3 ATS as a road dog of three points or less. I think the home side comes out a bit flat and the Hawks, at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Flyers v. Flames -128 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Calgary Flames (9:35 EST). The 27-22-3-4 Philadelphia Flyers are in Calgary to take on the 28-26-1-2 Flames and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Philadelphia broke a three-game losing streak with a 2-1 OT victory at home over the Sharks, while the Flames will be looking to atone for a 5-0 home loss to the lowly Coyotes last time out. Calgary has to be liking it chances today for a bounce back performance, as the home team has won the last four games in this series. The Flyers come to town scuffling, they’ve lost four of their last six. Goaltender Michal Neuvirth is 9-6 with a 2.67 GAA on the year, including 3-2 with a 3.69 GAA on the road. Philadelphia averages 2.54 GPG and concedes 2.93. Calgary averages 2.56 GPG and concedes 2.84. Chad Johnson will get the call in net tonight, he’s 9-8 with a 2.92 GAA at home thus far. I’ll point out though that the Flyers are already 0-3 (-3.8 units) this season when playing with three or more days rest, while Calgary is 11-5 (+7 units) this year after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest. I think the home side is going to be risking life and limb to score a victory today after getting embarrassed last time out. All things considered, I think this is a great price, play on Calgary. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Blazers v. Jazz -7 | 88-111 | Win | 100 | 28 h 24 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). The 23-32 Portland Trailblazers are in Utah to take on the 34-22 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams come in on losing streaks, as the Jazz have lost three straight, while the Blazers have gone just 1-4 in their last five following a deflating OT loss to ATL on Monday. It’s been Utah’s offense which has let it down of late, amassing a season-low in its latest setback to the Clippers. The Jazz are still the best defensive club in the league though and I think they get back to form tonight. The Jazz offense also catches a break in facing the Blazers’ vanilla defense, ranked in the lower-third in most categories. I’ll also point out that Portland is just 10-18 ATS on the road this season, just 10-15 ATS against clubs with winning records, only 14-24 ATS after allowing 105 points or more and just 3-7 ATS off an upset loss as a favorite. And note that Utah is 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 73 points or less in its previous outing. I think the Jazz are the deeper team and expect their smothering defense to be just too much for the inconsistent Blazers to handle tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Spurs -10.5 v. Magic | 107-79 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (7:05 EST). The 42-13 San Antonio Spurs are in Orlando to take on the 21-36 Magic and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is the final game of the first half before the All Star break. The Spurs come to town off a 110-106 win over Indiana on Monday, while the Magic enter off a rare victory, picking up a 116-107 road win over the Heat on Monday. Note that this does in fact set up as a “revenge” spot for the Spurs, as Orlando took the first matchup of the season, 95-83, back on November 29th. Suffice it to say, I think Gregg Popovich and company haven’t forgotten that embarrassing performance and will be out to atone with a big beatdown performance this evening. San Antonio averages 106.7 PPG and concedes just 98.7. Kawhi Leonard leads the nightly charge with 25.9, 5.9 boards and 1.8 steals a night. Big man Lamarcus Aldridge contributes 17.4 points and 7.4 boards. Let’s not read too much into the Magic’s latest victory, they’d lost four straight and six of seven prevoius to downing the Heat. Note that Orlando averages just 99.9 PPG and concedes 106.1. I’ll point out that the Spurs are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 after allowing 100 points or more in their prevoius outing, while the Magic are just 1-5 ATS in their last six against the Western Conference. The Magic just dealt Serge Ibaka and will once again have to make adjustments on the fly. That doesn’t bode well facing a Spurs team that’s firing on all cylinders and out for revenge. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | Wichita State v. Southern Illinois +12 | 87-68 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 18 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Southern Illinois (7:00 EST). The 23-4 Wichita State Shockers are at Southern Illinois to take on the 14-13 Salukis and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Not surprisingly this sets up as a revenge game for the Salukis who were crushed 87-45 at Wichita State earlier in the year. The Shockers are an awesome team. The Salukis are an extremely average team. Wichita State averages 81.6 PPG and concedes 62.6. Southern Illinois averages 70.2 PPG and concedes 70.4. The Salukis are led by Mike Rodriguez with 12.9 PPG. I’ll point out though that Wichita State is already 0-2 ATS this year as a road fav of 12 points or more, while Southern Illinois is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent and 3-1 ATS in its last four at home this season (also 4-1 ATS this year against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest). I’m not predicting an outright upset or anything ere, but do think that the stage is set for the Shockers to have a minor mental letdown tonight. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | George Washington v. Davidson -8 | Top | 63-74 | Win | 100 | 26 h 17 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Davidson (7:00 EST). Not much to play for for either team tonight, as neither will likely be playing in any postseason tournaments. I simply feel that home court advantage can’t be overlooked in this particular matchup and am expecting the Wildcats to make the most of it. George Washington ended a three-game losing streak on Saturday in a 76-70 home win over St. Bonaventure. Tyler Cavanaugh was a standout with a career-high 33 points to go along with ten boards. Davidson will be the much “hungrier” side tonight as it looks to break a three-game slide, most recently falling 74-60 at VCU. The Wildcats are led by Jack Gibbs, who ranks among the conference scoring leaders with an average of 21.2 PPG. I’ll point out that the Colonials are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten following a SU victory and just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games, while Davidson is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 60 points or less. This is also a revenge game for Davidson after falling 73-69 to the Colonials on Janaury 5th. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-15-17 | La Salle v. St Bonaventure -5 | 65-83 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on St. Bonaventure (7:00 EST). The 13-10 La Salle Explorers are at St. Bonaventure to take on the 15-9 Bonnies and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. La Salle enters off a listless 64-52 home loss to Richmond, while the Bonnies come in off a 76-70 setback at George Washington. The Explorers looked feeble on the offensive end against the Spiders, shooting just 40.4 percent from the floor, including only 20 percent from range. So far La Salle averages 76.3 PPG and gives up 80.2 in true road games this year. St. Bonaventure has lost two of its last three, but it has to be feeling pretty confident that it can bounce back tonight as it’s averaged 81.6 PPG and conceded 77.2 at home for the year. Jaylen Adams leads the nightly charge with an average of 21.3 PPG. I’ll point out that La Salle ist just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, just 2-4 ATS as an underdog and only 5-7 ATS against teams with winning records, while St. Bonaventure is 2-1 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. The Bonnies have allowed just 59.8 PPG in their last four home games in regulation, which doesn’t bode well for an Explorers team suddenly struggling with offensive consistency. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-14-17 | Kings v. Lakers +1 | Top | 97-96 | Push | 0 | 32 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE BLOWOUT SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the LA Lakers. The 23-32 Sacramento Kings are in LA to take on the 19-37 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Kings are poised for a letdown here in my opinion after going 4-1 on a five-game homestand, including downing the Pelicans 105-99 at home on Sunday. LA returns home off a 2-3 road trip, most recently beating the Bucks 122-114 on Friday. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Lakers would be a bit of an understatement as the Kings have won eight of the last nine in the series, including 116-92 in the lone matchup this season back on December 12th. It’s a classic letdown spot for Sacramento though, which also beat Golden State, Boston and Atlanta during the home surge. And note that despite the recent up-tick in play, the Kings are still tied for just 21st in the league in scoring with an average of 103.4 PPG. Unfortunately, the defense hasn’t been much better, ranked 18th in conceding an average of 105.8 per contest. DeMarcus Cousins averages 27.8 points and 10.7 boards per game this year. The Lakers posted 47 first quarter points against the Bucks on Friday. Overall LA is ranked 18th in the league in scoring with an average of 104.7 PPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive end in conceding 110.5 per night. Keep your eyes on Lou Williams, who leads the team with 18.4 points and 3.1 assists per night. I’ll point out that Sacramento is already just 9-13 ATS this year after scoring 105 points or more and 0-2 ATS after three or more consecutive SU victories, while LA is 7-5 ATS after playing three consecutive road games and 7-2 ATS in its last nine against good offensive teams which average 99-plus points per contest. The stage is set for the Lakers to grab another victory. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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02-14-17 | Sabres v. Senators -153 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -153 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Ottawa Senators (7:30 EST). The 23-23-5-5 Buffalo Sabres are in Ottawa to take on the 29-18-5-1 Senators and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Sabres come in with zero momentum after losing 4-2 at home to the Canucks, while the Sens enter off a confidence building 3-0 win over a previously red hot Islanders team. Note though that this does set up as a “revenge” scenario for the home side as Buffalo has somehow managed to win four of the last five in the series. Robin Lehner took the loss against Vancouver and he’s now 14-22 with a 2.57 GAA on the year and 8-10 with a 2.75 GAA on the road. Note that the Sabres average 2.45 GPG and concede 2.75. Ottawa averages 2.62 GPG and concedes 2.68. Craig Anderson stopped all 33 shots he faced in the win over the Isles and is now 13-7 with a 2.34 GAA on the year, including going 8-5 with a 2.43 GAA at home. I think Anderson is the difference here and look for the Sens to do just enough to secure the victory. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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02-14-17 | St. Joe's +14 v. VCU | Top | 81-91 | Win | 100 | 27 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on St. Joseph’s (6:00 EST). The 10-14 St. Joseph’s Hawks are at VCU to take on the 20-5 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. St. Joseph’s beat VCU in the A-10 Championship game last season, but they would split a pair of games overall. This will be the only meeting this season, as the Hawks are clearly not the same team that they were a year ago. But because of that, I think the stage is set for the high-powered Rams to come into this one a bit complacent in facing their lowly visitor tonight. St. Joseph’s will be the “hungrier” team in my opinion as it looks to break a four-game losing streak, most recently an 87-76 setback at home to Massachusetts on Saturday. Charlie Brown was a bright spot with 15 points and eight boards. The Hawks average 70.6 PPG and concede 72.9. The Rams average 75 PPG and concede 65.6. Most recently VCU pulled away for a 74-60 home win over Davidson on Saturday. I’ll point out though that St. Joseph’s is already 5-3 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival and 3-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while VCU is only 9-10 ATS as a favorite this year (including 0-2 ATS as a home fav of 12.5 points or more) and 0-2 ATS against teams with losing records. Is a date against third place Richmond on Friday a reason to “look ahead?” Probably not. But regardless, after six straight victories, I think the Rams do indeed come out a bit flat tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | Clippers v. Jazz -7 | Top | 88-72 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 21 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). The 33-21 LA Clippers are in Utah to take on the 34-21 Jazz and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Clippers are poised for a letdown here after two straight wins. Conversely, after a 112-104 setback to the C’s on Saturday, I expect the home side to come out fired up tonight. Also note that Utah plays with revenge after dropping the first game of the season to the Clippers 88-75 on the road back in October. The Clippers average 108.5 PPG and concede 105.1. The Jazz average just 100.5 PPG, but are ranked No. 1 in the league on the defensive end in conceding a mere 96 PPG. And I’ll point out that LA is just 1-2 ATS this season as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Utah is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 105 points or more. I think Utah comes in focused, eager to break the string of shoddy play and to avenge the earlier loss to the Clippers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | West Virginia v. Kansas -4 | Top | 80-84 | Push | 0 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Kansas (9:00 EST). The 20-15 West Virginia Mountaineers are in Kansas to take on the 22-3 Jayhawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. WVU is poised for a letdown after winning five of its last six. Kansas has won four of its last five, but does play with revenge here after falling 85-69 at West Virgina earlier in the year. These teams are pretty evenly matched on both sides of the ball, but the situation and the trends all point to the home side as the correct call tonight. As I’ll point out that Mountaineers are in fact already 0-1 ATS this year when playing on one days rest, while Kansas is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range. Kansas has scored at least 80 points in two of its last three games and I look for it to put the foot on the gas from start to finish tonight as well. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | Coyotes v. Flames UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Coyotes/Flames (9:05 EST). The 18-28-7 Arizona Coyotes are in Calgary to take on the 28-25-3 Flames and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has goaltenders battle written all over it. Arizona is terrible and it’s struggled the most against its own division, dropping 11 of its last 13 against the Pacific. Note that the Coyotes have just 12 road wins in their last 54 tries. And clearly that doesn’t bode well for the offensively challenged visitors in facing a red hot Flames team which has won four of its last five. This is a game that playoff hopeful Calgary can ill afford to lose. The Flames have looked a lot better on both ends of the ice over the last month and note that they’ve seen the total go under the number in ten of 17 against their division and in five of eight after playing three consecutive road games, while the Coyotes have seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of 17 against the division and in both games that it’s played in this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” I have a hard time seeing the visitors mustering much offense tonight. This number is a little out of whack, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette -6.5 | 61-87 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Lafayette (8:00 EST). The 12-12 South Alabama Jaguars are in Louisiana to take on the 14-11 Ragin Cajuns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Jags are poised for a letdown here after winning three of their last four, most recently a 66-63 win over Louisiana-Monroe last time out. Ken Williams led the way in that one with 21 points. Note that South Alabama averages 71.9 PPG. The Ragin Cajuns on the other hand will be risking life and limb today as they look to stop their recently slide, dropping four straight and five of their last six, most recently a 100-88 seback to Troy last time out. Frank Bartley IV had 17 points in the setback. Note that Louisiana-Lafayette averages 81.8 PPG thus far. I’ll point out that South Alabama is just 7-8 ATS this year against teams with winning records and only 1-2 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Louisiana Lafayette is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive losses. I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | Magic +8 v. Heat | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Orlando Magic (7:35 EST). The 20-36 Orlando Magic are in Miami to take on the 24-31 Heat and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Magic come in as the “hungrier” team tonight after dropping four straight, most recently a 112-80 aetback at Dallas on Saturday. The Heat had their 13 game win strek snapped in a 117-109 road loss to the lowly 76ers on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. The first game back after an extended trip is always a tough one for a team, many consider it a classic “trap” scenario. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, it can be even more difficult to get back. And that’s the case here in my opinion. I’ll point out that Orlando is 3-1 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and 7-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses, while Miami is already just 4-5 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. I like the desperate visitors to keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | 76ers v. Hornets -8.5 | 105-99 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Charlotte Hornets (7:05 EST). The 20-34 Philadelphia 76ers are in Charlotte to take on the 24-30 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel that Charlotte is going to be the much “hungrier” team tonight. It’s lost nine of ten, most recently a 107-102 home setback to the Clippers on Saturday. Conversely, the over-achieving 76ers are poised for a bit of a letdown here in my opinion after winning their second straight, most recently a 117-109 home victory over Miami. Despite the recent surge, Philadelphia remains one of the worst teams in the league on paper, averaging just 101 PPG and conceding 106.8. Compare that to a Hornets club which averages 104.9 PPG and concedes 104.5. And I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Charlotte is 2-1 ATS in its last three at home. I expect the Hornets to risk life and limb tonight to try and secure the victory and their immense effort will translate into a lop-sided blowout once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-13-17 | Baylor v. Texas Tech +2 | 78-84 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas Tech (7:00 EST). The 22-3 Baylor Bears are at Texas Tech to take on the 16-9 Red Raiders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baylor looks poised for a bit of a mental letdown here in my opinion after two straight wins, most recently a 70-52 victory over TCU on Saturday. Conversely, the Red Raiders will be risking life and limb today as they look to stop a recent slide which has seen them drop five of their last seven, most recently a tight 80-79 home loss to Kansas on Saturday. Note that this is also a “revenge” game for the Red Raiders as they fell 65-61 at Baylor back on January 25th. The Bears average 73.8 PPG and allow just 61.4. Jonathan Motley leads the nightly charge with 16.9 points and 9.7 boards per game. The Red Raiders average 75.1 PPG and allow only 65.8. Keenan Evans posts a team high 14.9 points, plus three assists per contest. I’ll point out that the Bears are just 4-7 ATS this year following a conference game and only 2-6 ATS off a win against a conference rival, while Texas Tech is already 2-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, 3-2 ATS in revenging a road loss against an opponent and 3-1 ATS after allowing 80 points or more. Texas Tech is even tougher at home and I think an upset is in the cards. That said, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-12-17 | Pelicans v. Kings UNDER 211 | Top | 99-105 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is the under Pelicans/Kings (9:05 EST). The 21-33 New Orleans Pelicans are in Sacramento to take on the 22-32 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. These teams are still in the playoff mix and as such, I’m expecting a battle tonight between two clubs which are centered around their big men. The Pelicans won for just the second time in their last seven games with a 122-106 road victory over the Wolves on Friday The Kings have looked better of late, winning for the third time in four games by besting Atlanta 108-107 at home on Friday. Note, that when these teams met on November 28th, the Kings won 102-94 at home. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score once it’s all said and done tonight as well. And note, despite the big offensive outburst against Minnesota, New Orleans still ranks 21st in the league in scoring with 103.5 PPG (the defense concedes 106.8). Sacramento has beaten the Warriors, Celtics and Hawks during its win streak, but is still rankd just 22nd in the league in scoring with 103.4 PPG. The defense concedes 105.9. I’ll point out that the Pelicans have seen the total go under the number in six of ten this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Sacramento has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of four as a home fav in the 3.5 to six points range this year and in eight of 14 when playing the role of favorite. In my opinion, everything points to a lower-scoring affair, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-12-17 | Michigan v. Indiana -3.5 | Top | 75-63 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* TV BLOWOUT is on Indiana (1:00 EST). The 15-9 Michigan Wolverines are in Indiana to take on the 15-10 Hoosiers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Hoosiers are the much “hungrier” team today as they’ve lost four of their last five. Conversely, I think the Wolverines are primed for an immediate return to mediocrity after they avenged an earlier loss to rival Michigan State in their last game. Derrick Walton Jr. remains a consistent bright spot for Michigan, he averages 14.3 points, 4.7 boards and 3.8 assists per game. The Hoosiers will clearly be looking to slow him down this afternoon. Indiana lost 69-64 at home to No. 18 ranked Purdue on Thursday. The Hoosiers have defeated No. 3 Kansas and No. 7 UNC during their non-conference schedule, but was then hit hard by the injury bug. The good news though was that leading scorer James Blackmon Jr. returned to action last week after missing three games. He posted just 11 points, but his presence is greatly need with a couple others still out. I’ll point out that Michigan is just 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road and only 4-12 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while Indiana is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against teams with losing road records and 10-3 ATS in its last 13 following an ATS loss. The Wolverines have been widly inconsistent this year and they’ve consistently been at their worst away from friendly confines, going 0-6 SU in true road games thus far. I look for Michigan’s inconsistencies to continue here and expect the desperate home side to finally get off the schneid behind a big performance from Blackmon Jr. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-12-17 | Sharks v. Devils +120 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New Jersey Devils (12:35 EST). The 33-18-3-1 San Jose Sharks are in New Jersey to take on the 23-21-8-2 Devils and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. San Jose comes in off a 2-1 loss in Philadelphia in OT just yesterday, while the Devils have had four whole nights off after besting the Sabres 2-1 at home. The Sharks are in a tail-spin, having lost four in a row now. Martin Jones is expected in net tonight and he’s 27-19 with a 2.30 GAA on the year. San Jose averages 2.71 GPG and allows 2.38. New Jersey averages 2.30 GPG and concedes 2.80. The numbers favor the Sharks on paper, but the “situation” favors the well rested home side in my opinion. New Jersey is playing much better of late, as it would hammer Columbus 5-1 on the road previous to its win over the Sabres. Cory Schneider hasn’t been his usual dominant self this year, but he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd, going 11-8 with a 2.40 GAA in New Jersey thus far. Back-to-back early starts turns out to be just too much for the Sharks to overcome this afternoon and the focused home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on New Jersey. Good luck…Larry |
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02-11-17 | Magic v. Mavs UNDER 203 | Top | 80-112 | Win | 100 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is the under Magic/Mavericks (9:05 EST). The 20-35 Orlando Magic are in Dallas to take on the 21-32 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defenisve battle written all over it. Orlando comes in with zero momentum, having lost three straight, most recently a heart-breaker at home to the lowly 76ers. 21 turnovers was the difference. Nikola Vucevic was a bright spot with 21 points: “This is what happens when you have big leads all throughout the game and you don’t control the game,” Vucevic lamented afterwards. “When you let teams back in, a lot of times you are going to lose those games–especially after the way we start playing like we’re up 40. It’s unacceptable, especially in the position we’re in where we can’t even get a win right now.” The Mavs on the other hand come in having won five of their last seven, most recently an OT thriller over the Jazz on Thursday. Harrison Barnes led the way with 31 points. I’ll point out though that Orlando has seen the total go under the number in all five games it’s played this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of 12 this year off an upset win as an underdog. Orlando is in the bottom third in almost every single offensive category, while the Mavs rank in the top third in almost every defensive category. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-11-17 | Gonzaga v. St. Mary's +3 | Top | 74-64 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Saint Mary’s. The 25-0 Gonzaga Bulldogs are at Saint Mary’s to take on the 22-2 Gaels and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Gonzaga is 17-4 ATS so far, while Saint Mary’s is 11-9 ATS overall. It’s a revenge game for the No. 2 team in the conference, as the Gaels fell 79-56 in Spokane in the first meeting this season. The Zags are 13-0 in conference action, while Saint Mary’s sits at 12-1. Gonzaga is an awesome team and hasn’t been challenged in league play so far, but I think that changes tonight. ESPN will be at the game tonight and the Gaels will be gunning for the outright upset and a share of the conference lead. These are a couple of the best teams in the country and they’re also a couple of the best when looking at “Against The Spread” statistics. One very important one sees Saint Mary’s alreaday 1-0 ATS this season in revenging a road loss against an opponent. Gonzaga has covered five straight at Moraga, but that trend ends tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-11-17 | South Carolina -4 v. Mississippi State | Top | 77-73 | Push | 0 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on South Carolina (8:00 EST). The 19-5 South Carolina Gamecocks are at Mississippi State to take on the 14-9 Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I simply feel that the Gamecocks are going to come out fired up here after their 90-86 four-OT home loss to Alabama on Tuesday. Sindarius Thornwell was a bright spot with 44 points and 21 boards. Thornwell became the first Gamecock to record two games with a least 30 points in a season since 2009. Here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against as the Bulldogs have lost five of seven, most recently a 98-92 setback in Auburn on Tuesday. Quindndary Weatherspoon led the way with 25 points. I’ll point out that South Carolina has dominated in this spot for bettors, going 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss and 6-2-2 ATS in its last ten on the road overall, while Mississippi State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after giving up 98 points or more. The Gamecocks are now tied in the SEC for top spot, but have a big opportunity today in facing the inconsistent Bulldogs. I think South Carolina finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-11-17 | Saint Louis Cardinals v. Canadiens -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Montreal Canadiens (7:00 EST). The 28-22-4-1 St. Louis Blues are in Montreal to take on the 31-17-6-2 Canadiens and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Blues have a letdown here after three straight wins. Mike Yeo took over the head coaching duties on Feb. 1st and the team has gone 4-1 under him. Goaltender Jake Allen though is having an overall “down” year, sitting at 20-14-3 with a 2.69 GAA. Note that he’s had difficulty against the Habs throughout his career as well, going just 1-3-0 with a 3.45 GAA lifetime. The Blues average 2.84 GPG and conceded 2.95. The Canadiens average 2.89 GPG and concede 2.50. Montreal finally got off the shneid and broke a four-game slide with a 5-4 OT win over the Coyotes. Habs’ goaltender Carey Price is also having an “up-and-down” season, he’s 24-13-5 with a 2.42 GAA this year and lifetime against the Blues sees him 4-3-2 with a 2.39 GAA. I’ll point out that St. Louis is already just 1-3 (-3.2 units) this season following a three-game unbeaten streak, while Montreal is 11-5 (+6.2 units) after allowing four goals or more. Clearly the Canadiens can’t be happy with a single OT win over the league’s worst team. I’m expecting the home side to come out fired up and for Price to outduel his counterpart. This line should be significantly higher in my opinion, play on Montreal. Good luck…Larry |
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02-11-17 | Fresno State +3 v. Colorado State | Top | 62-78 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Fresno State (4:00 EST). The 14-10 Fresno State Bulldogs are at Colorado State to take on the 16-9 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. If recent history is any precedence, then the visitors have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met back on Janaury 18th, the Bulldogs thrashed the Rams 78-57. Deshon Taylor led the way in that one for Fresno State with 19 points. The Bulldogs will be coming in hungry today as well as they’ve lost three of their last four. Taylor had 32 points and nine boards in his teams 102-10 four-overtime loss to Wyoming on Wednesay. Conversely, I think the Rams come in a tiny bit complacent after winning five of their last six. Colorado State is led by Gian Clavell, who averages 18.6 PPG and 6.4 boards. The Rams come in off a 67-52 win over the Utah State Aggies on Tuesday. I often look at “revenge” as a motivating factor, but in this case I don’t think it’s going to matter. Fresno State is desperate for a win as it sits at .500 in league play. The Bulldogs dominated the first matchup and I think they’ll at the very least, take this one down to the wire as well. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-11-17 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State +5.5 | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Appalachian State (3:30 EST). The 16-7 Georgia State Panthers are at Appalachian State to take on the 6-16 Mountaineers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I simply feel that Georgia State comes in complacent here after eight straight wins, most recently a 69-55 win over ULM Monroe on Monday. Jimmy Hollowell led the way with 19 points and six boards. I won’t try to convince you that the Mountaineers are a decent team which has just had some back luck this season, as that’s not the truth. Applachian State State scores and allows 75 PPG, so there is no margin for error most nights. App State has lost seven straight and I think will come out hungry here. Most recently the Mountaineers fell 69-62 at Arkansas Little Rock on Monday. Ronshad Shabazz and Tyrell Johnson each scored 15 points in the setback. I’ll point out though that Georgia State is already 0-1 ATS this year as a road fav of 3.5 to six points and just 15-25 ATS in its last 40 on the road, while Appalachian State is already 1-0 ATS this year as a home dog of 3.5 to six points and 5-3 ATS after three or more consecutive SU losses. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end as I look for the home side to catch Georgia State a little flat-footed tonight. Play on Appalachian State. Good luck…Larry |
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02-11-17 | Richmond v. La Salle -3.5 | Top | 64-52 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on La Salle (2:00 EST). The 14-9 Richmond Spiders are at La Salle to take on the 13-9 Explorers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams come into this one hot, as Richmond has won three of its last four, while La Salle has won two of its last three. The Explorers would beat Fordham 67-52 last time out. Note that the Rams were held to just 33.9 percent from the floor overall. Keep your eyes on La Salle’s BJ Johnson, who finished with 26 points, eight boards, three assists and three steals in the decisive victory. The Spiders come in off an 84-75 win over George Washington, Khwan Fore had a career-high 24 points in the victory. I’ll point out though that Richmond is just 1-2 ATS in its last three against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while La Salle is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite and 3-1 its last four in front of the home town crowd. The Explorers are the top three-point shooting team in the Atlantic 10 and they also lead the confernece in almost every single offensive category. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-10-17 | Pelicans v. Wolves UNDER 214 | Top | 122-106 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the under Pelicans/Wolves (8:05 EST). The 20-33 New Orleans Pelicans are in Minnesota to take on the 20-33 Timberwolves and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Pelicans come in with zero momentum, having lost five of their last six, most recently getting destroyed 127-94 at home by Utah on Wednesday. The Wolves got off the schneid and broke a four-game slide in their last outing with a 112-109 win over the Raptors on Wednesday. Note that New Orleans has won eight of the last ten in the series, including a 117-96 victory at home in the first matchup this year back on November 23rd. The Pelicans average 103.1 PPG and concede 106.8. Anthony Davis averages 27.6 PPG to go along with 12.1 boards, 1.31 steals and 2.51 blocks per contest. Unfortunately for Davis, his supporting cast is pretty thin, E-Twaun Moore is next in line with just 9.8 PPG. Minnesota averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 105.6. Big man Karl-Anthony Towns will have his hands full with Davis, he leads the nightly charge for the Wolves with 23.5 PPG and 11.9 boards. I’ll point out that New Orleans has already seen the total go under the number in 17 of 28 this year after allowing 105 points or more, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four when playing the role of favorite. Both teams are dealing with injuries to key players, so I’m expecting the spot light to be thrown onto the big men tonight. With each looking to establish, we can expect some half court sets to be run, meaning a slower pace at times. I think this number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-10-17 | Blackhawks v. Jets UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* WESTERN CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Hawks/Jets (8:00 EST). Chicago comes in off a 4-3 OT win against Minnesota. It was the Hawks third straight win and suffice it to say, I think they suffer a bit of a letdown tonight. Corey Crawford stopped 35 of 38 shots and is now 21-12-3 with a 2.59 GAA and .917 save percentage. After three straight victories, the Jets come into this one desperate after back-to-back losses. Most recently Winnipeg fell 4-2 at home to Minnesota on Tuesday. With an injury to Ondrej Pavelec in the setback, Connor Hellebuyck becomes the No. 1 goaltender now. I’ll point out that Chicago has in fact seen the total go under the number in four of five this season after playing to three or more consecutive “overs” and in six of its last nine road games when the total in the contest is set at 5.5. And note that Winnipeg has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four home games when the total is set at 5.5 and in two of its last three after allowing four goals or more. The Jets are 4-0 against the Hawks this season and Hellybuyck has started all four and posted a 1.25 GAA and .961 save percentage. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-10-17 | Columbia v. Pennsylvania -4.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* (((CA$H BOMB!))) is on Pennsylvania (7:00 EST). The 10-9 Columbia Lions are in Pennsylvania to take on the 7-12 Quakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Lions are 4-2 in league play, while Penn is 0-6. Columbia comes in off an 83-78 victory over Brown and was led by Luke Petrasek’s 18 points, seven boards, four assists, three steals and block. So far the Lions average 74.4 PPG. The Quakers come in off a poor 64-49 loss to Princeton. Darnell Foreman was a bright spot with 11 points. So far Pennsylvania averages 66.3 PPG. I won’t try to convince you that the Quakers are a decent team which has just caught some bad breaks this year, as that’s not the case. Pennsylvania is not a very good team. Columbia hasn’t been a “World beater’ this year either though and with a game at conference leading Princeton tomorrow night, I think this does indeed set up as a classic “trap” situation for the visitors. And I’ll point out that the Lions are just 1-2 ATS off a win against a conference rival this season and only 1-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more, while the Quakers are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 after three or more consecutive Straight-Up losses. Pennsylvania a favorite here for a reason and I think it should in fact be a larger one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | BYU -11 v. Pepperdine | Top | 83-99 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 33 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on BYU (11:00 EST). The 17-8 BYU Cougars are at Pepperdine to take on the 7-17 Waves and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. BYU comes in off a 73-62 win over Portland on Saturday, while Pepperdine enters off an 82-72 win over Pacific. These teams played on January 19th and the Cougars pounded the Waves 99-70, led by 22 points and ten boards from Erik Mika. Suffice it to say, I think we’ll see a repeat performance here. BYU shot just 38.9 percent from the floor in its win over Portland, so will clearly be looking to get off to a better start tonight. Mika contributed 23 points, three blocks and 12 boards. Despite the “off” shooting night, BYU still averages 81.9 PPG, while conceding 72.7. Lamond Murray Jr. averages 20.7 PPG for the Waves and he had 26 in his team’s rare win over lowly Pacific on Saturday. Pepperdine averages just 69.2 PPG and allows 79.8. I’ll point out that BYU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest, while Pepperdine is already 0-2 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival and 0-2 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. I have a hard time seeing Pepperdine keeping up with BYU today, I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | Canadiens -155 v. Coyotes | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Montreal Canadiens (9:00 EST). The 30-17-8 Montreal Canadiens are in Arizona to take on the 17-28-6 Coyotes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Habs have lost four straight and will clearly be looking to take advantage of this favorable matchup and lay a beating to the league’s “doormat.” Arizona comes in contented anyways after it broke a two-game slide with a shootout win over the Sharks on Saturday. It will be all hands on deck for Montreal tonight: “Every team goes through tough stretches,” goalie Carey Price explained last night. “I think it’s important we continue to have fun and not dwell on things when they’re not going well. That’s always seemed to be the recipe to get out of a funk, and that’s what we’re going to use.” The Coyotes haven’t played since Saturday and I think will come out a bit flat footed here. I’ll also point out that Montreal is in fact 17-8 in its last 25 against clubs with losing records, while Arizona is only 1-5 in its last six on at least three days of rest. Price has dominated the Coyotes throughout his career, going 8-0 with a 1.49 GAA. I’m laying the price on Price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | Jazz v. Mavs +2.5 | Top | 105-112 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:35 EST). The 34-19 Utah Jazz are in Dallas to take on the 20-32 Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one too much in my opinion, as Utah comes in off a big 127-94 win over New Orleans just last night. I unfortunately had a play on the Pelicans in that one. The Jazz are poised for a letdown now after four straight wins and the revenge minded and much improved Mavericks will be looking to take advantage. Dallas comes in as the “hungrier” team as it’s now dropped two in a row, most recently a 114-113 setback at home to Portland on Tuesday. Note that Dallas does in fact play with “triple revenge” tonight, after dropping all three previous games to the Jazz this season. This is a great situational play, as Utah comes in tired and content. The Mavs are eager to return to the winners circle, have home court advantage and big motivation after already dropping three games to the Jazz this year. And I’ll point out that Utah is just 10-14 ATS on the road this year and interestingly, only 18-22 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 99-plus points per contest, while Dallas is 8-2 ATS in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 12-6 ATS after allowing 105 points or more. While I clearly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | St. Peter's v. Quinnipiac | 76-45 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on St. Peter’s (8:00 EST). Both teams are hungry for a win in this one. So far St. Peter’s is 12-12 overall and 8-6 in the MAAC, while Quinnipiac is 10-14 overall and 7-7 in league play. These teams played earlier in the year and the Peacocks got the better of the Bobcats 58-54. Since losing to St. Peter’s, the Bobcats have gone 4-4. It’s an interesting contrast in styles today, as St. Peter’s averages just 65.6 PPG, but concedes only 63.9, while Quinnipiac averages 76.7 points and concedes 80.7. The Peacocks are 5-4 since beating the Bobcats. They’ve lost their last three games, but the biggest margin of defeat was just three points. And note that St. Peter’s is 6-0 ATS in its last six following an ATS loss, while Quinnipiac is already 0-2 ATS this year as a home dog of three points or less or pick. I like St. Peter’s to get back into the winners circle with another big defensive effort. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | Stars v. Senators -123 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Ottawa Senators (7:30 EST). The 21-23-9-1 Dallas Stars are in Ottawa to take on the 27-18-5-1 Senators and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams come in off losses, Dallas falling 3-1 on the road in Toronto, while the Sens got smashed 6-0 at home to the Blues on Tuesday. Dallas has now lost three straight. Note that the Stars allowed 40 shots on goal to the Leafs. The once high-powered Stars offense is now just in the middle of the pack, ranked 13th in averaging 2.7 GPG. Dallas is a mess defensively, conceding 3.2 GPG. The Sens had 30 shots on net against the Blues’ Jake Allen, but were unable to find the back of the net. On the year Ottawa averages 2.6 GPG. Defensively the team allows 2.7. Goaltender Mike Condon had a poor game against St. Louis obviously, but overall he’s been pretty solid, posting a 2.55 GAA and a .912 save percentage. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-4 in its last five on the raod, while Ottawa is 5-1 in its last six following a home loss of three goals or more and 9-3 in its last 12 after allowing five goals or more in its previous game. Dallas is a complete disaster on the defensive end and I think that spells doom for the visitors today in facing this Senators team which was embarrassed last time out. Play on Ottawa. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | Islanders v. Flyers -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:00 EST). The 23-18-7-3 New York Islanders are in Philadelphia to take on the 26-21-3-4 Flyers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Isles come in off a hugely satisfying 6-5 OT home win over Toronto. New York comes into this one complacent after winning four of its last six. Conversely, the Flyers come in razor focused and hungry after dropping three of their last four, most recently a 2-0 home loss to St. Louis. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be loving its chances today as it’s already taken the first two meetings between the team’s this year. Thomas Greiss picked up the win for the Isles over Toronto last time out, note that he’s 2-4 with a 2.66 GAA lifetime against the Flyers and 5-6 with a 2.48 GAA on the road. New York averages 2.98 GPG and concedes 2.94. Philadelphia averages 2.57 GPG and concedes 2.96. Goaltender Michael Neuvirth 8-6 with a 2.79 GAA on the year, including 5-4 with a 2.19 GAA at home. Note that he’s 7-3 with a 1.76 GAA lifetime against New York. I’ll point out that New York is just 6-10 (-2.4 units) against division opponents and 4-7 (-2.4 units) in revenging a home loss against an opponent, while Philadelphia is 4-1 (+3.6 units) this season after playing three consecutive home games. I think the hungrier home side finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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02-09-17 | Rice -7 v. Florida International | 89-78 | Win | 100 | 28 h 34 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Rice (7:00 EST). FIU is just 8-13 this year and that includes a 1-9 mark in C-USA action. Rice comes in at the other end of the spectrum with a 15-8 overall record. The Owls though will be looking to improve upon their 5-5 record in league play. Rice enters in off a relatively simple 95-80 win over North Texas. Marcus Evans and Marcus Jackson combined to put up 35 points. FIU enters off a 95-80 loss to Charlotte on Saturday. Donte McGill was a bright spot with 27 points. The Golden Panthers looked brutal defensively, allowing the 49ers to make 60 percent of their shots from the floor. I’ll point out that Rice is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with a losing SU record, while FIU is just 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home underdog. The Owls are looking a lot better of late, winning three of their last four, including two straight on the road. Rice beat FIU by 16 last year and I think it’ll fly away with tonight’s game as well. Play on the Owls. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-17 | Heat v. Bucks -2 | Top | 106-88 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). The 22-30 Miami Heat are in Milwaukee to take on the 22-28 Bucks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Miami comes in on the back of an 11-game win streak, but I think it will finally have a letdown here. The Heat most recently got by Minnesota 115-113 on the road on Monday. Conversely, the Bucks are looking to build momentum, they finally got off the schneid and broke a five-game slide with a resounding 137-112 beatdown of the Suns on Saturday. Note that this does indeed also set up as a “revenge” game for Milwaukee, as Miami has taken two of three meetings this year, including a 109-97 home win on January 21st in the most recent. Note that despite the big win streak, the Heat still rank 25th in the league in scoring at 100.7 PPG. Miami is strong defenisvely though, conceding just 102.2 PPG. Goran Dragic usually leads the nightly charge, he’s averaging a team-leading 20.1 PPG. Giannis Antetokounmpo had 30 points, 12 boards, six assists and four blocks in his team’s win over the Suns last time out. Milwaukee averages 105.3 PPG and concedes 105.1. Keep your eyes on big man Greg Monroe, who averages 11.1 points and 6.7 boards in a sixth man role. I’ll point out that Miami is just 10-12 ATS this year after a non-conference game, while Milwaukee is a perfect 3-0 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games and 5-3 ATS as a home fav of three points or less. Milwaukee comes in rested and focused after four days off. Too many factors working against Miami tonight, I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-17 | Jazz v. Pelicans +4 | Top | 127-94 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH is on the New Orleans Pelicans (8:05 EST). The 33-19 Utah Jazz are in New Orleans to take on the 20-32 Pelicans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I believe the Jazz will finally have a letdown here after winning three straight. New Orleans though will be looking to build some momentum after getting off the schneid and breaking a four-game losing streak in a win over the Suns on Monday. Utah played over its head in its 120-95 win over Atlanta on Monday, shooting a season-high 61.3 percent from the floor. Suffice it to say, I am not expecting a repeat performance here. In fact, there’s only one way that shooting percentage can go (and that’s down!). Anthony Davis had 34 points, nine boards and five blocks in his team’s 111-106 win over Phoenix on Monday. Point guard Jrue Holiday had 30 points, nine boards, seven assists and three steals. I’ll point out that Utah is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight on the road, while New Orleans is 4-0 ATS in its last four home against against teams with winng road records and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following an ATS loss. The Jazz have a hard time with Davis, who averaged 25.3 points and 9.8 boards in four games against them last year. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Pelicans. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-17 | St. Louis v. St Bonaventure -15 | Top | 55-70 | Push | 0 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on St. Bonaventure (7:00 EST). The 8-15 St. Louis Billikens are at St. Bonaventure to take on the 14-8 Bonnies and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. St. Louis has won three of its last four, but is still just 3-7 in conference action. The Bonnies are looking to bounce back after dropping two of their last three. Despite the recent slip, St. Bonaventure is still 6-4 in league play. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be liking its chances today as when these teams met in mid January at St. Louis, the Bonnies would go on to win 71-52. The Billikens average just 54.9 PPG, while conceding 68.4 PPG in true road games this year. The Bonnies came up short against the VCU Rams last time out, one of the best teams in the conference. Note that St. Bonaventure averages 82.6 PPG and allows 79.2 at home so far this year. Keep your eyes on Matt Mobley, who scored 34 points in the setback to VCU. I’ll point out that St. Louis is already just 2-3 ATS this year in revenging a home loss against an opponent and 0-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less, while St. Bonaventure is 4-2 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more and 2-0 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. I think the Bonnies come in focused after scuffling of late. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-17 | NC State +14.5 v. Florida State | Top | 71-95 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina State (7:00 EST). The 14-10 NC State Wolfpack are in Florida to take on the 20-4 Seminoles on Wednesday night and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do definitely think that the hungry visitors can keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. I think the Seminoles come in a bit complacent here after they smacked Clemson 109-61 in their latest action. NC State comes in focused after losing 84-79 to Miami in its last outing. Note that this is a “double revenge” scenario for the visitors as well after FSU took both games last year. There were a couple of silver linings in the Wolfpack’s latest loss though, as despite allowing Miami to shoot 50 percent from the floor, they’d go on to hit an outstanding 56 percent themselves. It’s a positive that the team will look to build off of here. Dennis Smith Jr. had 31 points. Note that NC State averages 81.2 PPG, but concedes 78.9. FSU averages 84.4 PPG and concedes 70.6. But after posting the whopping lop-sided victory over the Tigers this past weekend, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. If the Wolfpack have any hopes at actually pulling off an outright upset, they’ll have to blanket Dwayne Bacon, who leads the team with 17.6 PPG. I’ll point out though that NC State is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive losses, while Florida State is just 1-2 ATS this season against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest. With an important game at Notre Dame on Saturday, it’s not too hard to imagine the Seminoles in some small way getting caught “looking past” their lesser opponent this evening. I like the Wolfpack to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on NC State. Good luck…Larry |
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02-08-17 | DePaul +16.5 v. Xavier | Top | 61-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on DePaul (6:30 EST). The 8-15 DePaul Blue Demons are at Xavier to take on the 17-6 Musketeers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. DePaul comes in off a 92-79 loss to Marquette, while Xavier would hold on for a big 82-80 road win over Creighton last weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for the visitors as the Musketeers took both meetings last year. Tre-Darius McCallum was a bright spot for the Blue Demons in the loss to the Golden Eagles, finishing with a season-high 21 points. DePaul has lost six in a row and 11 of 12 and sits in last place in the Big East at 1-9. Clearly the Blue Demons are a bad team, so I won’t try to convince you otherwise. I simply feel this is a great “situation” for the visitors and think they can keep this one a lot more competitive than what Vegas is trying to lead us to believe. Note that the Blue Demons average 70.4 PPG, but allow an average of 73.6 Xavier is primed for a letdown here though in my opinion after its epic come-from-behind victory over then No. 23 ranked Creighton on Saturday. Trevon Bluelett led the way in the upset with 16 points. The Musketeers are 7-3 in conference play so far. Note that Xavier averages 76.9 points and concedes 70.4. I’ll point out though that DePaul is a perfect 3-0 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more, while Xavier is just 2-3 ATS in the same position. With a game against conference leading Villanova on Friday and after the epic upset in its last outing, I think that Xavier gets caught looking past its lowly opponent this evening. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Michigan State v. Michigan -3 | Top | 57-86 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan (9:00 EST). These two teams are on the bubble as far as making the NCAA Tournament is concerned, so each will be pressing for a victory today. But Michigan plays with revenge after falling at Michigan State just last week. The Spartans come in on a two-game win streak, most recently beating Nebraska 72-61 on Thursday. Miles Bridges had 16 points. Michigan comes in as the “hungrier” team though as it’s lost two straight, most recently a 70-66 setback to Ohio State on Saturday (I had the Buckeyes in that one). Derrick Walton had 25 points and ten boards in the setback. Walton averages 19.7 points, 6.8 boards and 3.2 assists per game. I’ll point out that Michigan State is just 3-5 ATS as an underdog this year, while Michigan is 4-2 ATS in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. It’s essentially do-or-die for the Wolverines, who will be looking to defend home court and avenge the 70-62 loss to the Spartans on January 29th. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Magic v. Rockets -11 | Top | 104-128 | Win | 100 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Houston Rockets (8:00 EST). The 20-33 Orlando Magic are in Houston to take on the 37-17 Houston Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Magic come in with zero momentum, they lost for the seventh time in their last ten games with a 113-86 loss at Atlanta on Saturday. The Rockets can empathize, they’ve also hit a bit of a rough patch, but do come in off a 121-117 OT win at home over the Bulls to win for just the third time in their last eight overall. These team’s met in Orlando on January 8th and Houston scored the 100-93 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much bigger blowout this evening. The Magic average 99.6 PPG and allow 105.4 per night. Evan Fournier leads the nightly charge with 16.6 PPG. The Rockets average 114.1 PG and allow 108.3. Houston is led by James Harden with 28.9 points, 8.2 boards and 11.4 assists per night. I’ll point out that Orlando is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 when its opponent allows 100 points or more in its previous game, while the Rockets are 4-1 ATS in their last five home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Houston is tough at home. I think it builds off its latest victory and keeps the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Wild -117 v. Jets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Wild (8:00 EST). The 34-13-5 Minnesota Wild are in Winnipeg to take on the 25-26-4 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The WIld had their three-game win streak snapped by a desperate Colorado team this past Saturday. The Jets look like a perfect opponent to get back on track against in my opinion, as Winnipeg is poised for a letdown after winning four of its last five, most recently against Vancouver. Minnesota leads the Western Conference by four points over Chicago and San Jose. Note that the Wild have killed it in this spot for bettors all year, going 8-1 (+6.4 units) after playing three consecutive road games and 13-6 (+6.2 units) after a victory by two goals or more. Also note that the Jets have been brutal in this spot all season, going just 8-11 (-1.3 units) against teams with a winning record and just 7-9 (-2.1 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous contest. I’m banking on the Wild to do just enough to ground the Jets tonight. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Ducks v. Rangers -139 | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Rangers (7:00 EST). The 28-16-8-2 Anaheim Ducks are in New York to take on the 33-18-0-1 Rangers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Ducks enter off a 3-2 loss in Tampa Bay and have now lost three of their last four. The Rangers come in off a 4-3 home win over Calgary. Anaheim is just 11-17 on the road this year, while New York is 15-12 at home. Jonathan Bernier fell to 8-6 with a 2.82 GAA on the year for Anaheim. John Gibson though is expected to get the call in net for the visitors and he’s 6-12 with a 2.50 GAA on the road (note that Gibson is 0-2 with a 3.15 GAA lifetime against New York). The Ducks are ranked 21st in the league in scoring at 2.57 GPG, while ranked tenth on the defensive end in conceding 2.46 GPG. New York is 5-2 in its last seven. Henrik Lundqvist is 23-14 with a 2.74 GAA on the year, including going 5-5 with a 2.46 GAA lifetime against Anaheim. Note that the Rangers are ranked second in the league in scoring at 3.37 GPG, while ranked 12th in goals allowed at 2.65. I’ll point out that the Ducks are 1-5 in their last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while the Rangers are interestingly 72-33 in their last 105 when their opponent scores two goals or less in its previous game. The Ducks have lost five of their last six in New York as well. I’m giving the big nod to the Rangers in the net and on the offensive end of the ice and with those two factors working in our favor, that makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Sharks -140 v. Sabres | 4-5 | Loss | -140 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Jose Sharks (7:00 EST). The 33-17-2-1 San Jose Sharks are in Buffalo to take on the 21-21-5-5 Sabres and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. San Jose will be especitally motivated here after falling 3-2 in OT to the lowly Coyotes last time out. Here’s the perfect opponent to get back on track against as the Sabres return home after a deflating 2-1 loss in New Jersey just last night. Buffalo is ranked 24th in the league in scoring at 2.43 GPG. And that clearly doesn’t bode well in facing the Sharks second ranked defense which gives up 2.26 GPG. I’ll point out that San Jose is 42-18 in its last 60 when playing on two days rest, while Buffalo is just 20-59 in its last 79 in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. The Sharks have won four straight on the road and have to be smelling the blood in the water tonight as well. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Florida v. Georgia +5 | 72-60 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Georgia (7:00 EST). The 18-5 Florida Gators are in Georgia to take on the 13-10 Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I believe the Gators come in a bit complacent here, they’ve won four straight, most recently a hugely satisfying 88-66 spanking of Kentucky (the largest margin of victory in school history over the Wildcats). Conversely, the Bulldogs come in hyper-focused after two straight losses and four of their last five. Florida has in fact won 11 of its last 13. Georgia has some tough losses this year, falling by six at home to league-leading South Carolina and losting to Florida in Gainesville in OT. The Bulldogs had a 13 point second half lead and fell 63-63 in that one. That loss was followed by a 20-point home defeat to Alabama, followed by an OT loss to Kentucky and most recently, another loss to the Gamecocks, this time by just two points on the road. Keep your eyes on Yante Maten, who is averaging 19.7 PPG for Georgia, good for second in the conference. I’ll point out that Florida is just 10-15 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival, while Georgia is 7-1 ATS as an underdog this season and 3-0 ATS in trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. Enough is enough for the Bulldogs, they’ve gotten “oh so close” too many times this year. And while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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02-07-17 | Maryland v. Penn State +3 | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 4 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (6:00 EST). The 20-3 Maryland Terrapins are at Penn State to take on the 12-12 Nittany Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, is even harder to get back. The Terps lost their second conference game on Saturday and now sitsbehind Wisconsin for the top spot in the conference. It was a brutal loss too, falling 73-72 after blowing a 12-point second-half lead. Mayrland allowed Purdue to hit 9 of 22 from range and the Boilermakers also went 16 of 19 from the charity stripe to score the big upset. Melo Trimble leads the Terrapins with 17.2 PPG. Note that the Terps average 75.6 PPG and allow 66.3 Penn State is just 4-7 in Big Ten play and comes in off a 70-68 home loss to Rutgers on Saturday. The Nittany Lions average 72.1 PPG and allow 71.8. Clearly Penn State will be out to atone after losing to the Scarlet Knights (note that Rutgers was 0-23 on the road in conference play since joining the Big Ten in 2014). Shep Garner was a bright spot in the setback with 24 points. I’ll point out though that Maryland is just 5-6 ATS this year when playing the role of favorite (also just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games played in the month of February), while Penn State is 6-4 ATS at home this season and 8-6 ATS as the underdog. I think the Terps come in unfocused, still dwelling on their latest setback. The Nittany Lions clearly have nothing to lose and will look to take advantage. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Penn State. Good luck…Larry |
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02-06-17 | Mavs v. Nuggets UNDER 213.5 | Top | 87-110 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Mavericks/Nuggets (9:05 EST). The 20-30 Dallas Mavericks are in Denver to take on the 22-28 Nuggets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “defensive battle” written all over it as well. Dallas is rolling and will be gunning for a fifth straight win, most recently a 108-104 road victory in Portland. Denver enters off a 121-97 beatdown at the hands of the Spurs on Saturday. These teams have played twice already this year and each has won on its home court, the Nuggets taking the latest meeting 117-107. Dallas was a bit “lucky” to hold on for the win over the Blazers though, as it had a 19 point lead at one point. Yogi Ferrell scored 32 points, including going 9 of 11 from range. He immediately signed a two-year contract after the performance. The Mavs have a looked a lot better offensively of late, but note that the team still does only average 97.6 PPG, ranked dead last in the league. Dallas though features a strong defense which concedes just 100.4 PPG, ranked fourth overall. The Nuggets ran out of gas against San Antonio, as it was their fourth game in five nights. Denver averages 110.2 PPG and concedes 111.8. Note though that Denver has seen the total go under the number in two of its last three against teams with losing records. Also note that Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of 13 this year after scoring 105 points or more. The Mavs won’t want to turn this one into a “track meet,” so expect the visitors to try and control the pace a bit. In my opinion, this number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-06-17 | Heat v. Wolves UNDER 207 | 115-113 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Heat/Wolves (8:05 EST). The 21-30 Miami Heat are in Minnesota to take on the 19-32 Timberwolves and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “defensive battle” written all over it. Is Miami poised for a letdown here after winning its tenth in a row, most recently a 125-102 beatdown of the 76ers at home on Saturday? The Heat have been rolling for a while now, but after five straight wins at home, they now finally embark on an extended road trip. There’s no doubt that this sets up as a potential “trap” game for Miami. The Wolves on the other hand come in ultra motivated and focused as they’ve lost three straight, most recently a 107-99 setback to Memphis on Saturday. Despite the recent surge, note that the Heat still only averages 100.4 PPG this year. Most nights Miami gets the job done with smothering defensive play as it’s ranked fifth overall in conceding just 101.9 per night. Hassan Whiteside has been playing well of late, he had 30 points, 20 boards and three boocks in the win over Philadelphia. Minnesota averages 104 PPG and concedes 105.4. Karl-Anthony Towns leads the team with 23.1 points and 12 boards per contest. Minnesota’s offense took a hit though when swingman Zach LaVine went down with a torn ACL. I’ll point out that Miami has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 22 non-conference games this year, while Minnesota has seen the total go under the posted number in five of eight this season after three or more consecutive losses. Six of the last seven in this series in Minnesota have fallen below the number and all signs point to these trends continuing. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-06-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Arkansas State -9 | Top | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on Arkansas State (8:00 EST). The 11-12 Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are at Arkansas State to take on the 17-6 Red Wolves and after losing to the Chanticleers earlier in the season, I think this one favors the home side. The Red Wolves are 7-2 ATS at home, while Coastal Carolina is just 2-5-1 ATS on the road thus far. The Chanticleers most recently got the better of Arkansas Little Rock, 82-75. Jaylen Shaw had 21 points. The Red Wolves had to hold on for a tight 79-78 win over Appalachian State on Saturday. Arkansas State is now 8-2 in league play. Devin Carter had 25 points in the latest win. I’ll point out that Coastal Carolina is just 6-7 ATS as an underdog this year and only 4-5 ATS on the road, while Arkansas State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight following an ATS loss. Revenge is a powerful motivating factor and one which I think the oddsmakers have a hard time properly quantifying into a line at times. I expect a motivated Red Wolves team to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-06-17 | Jazz v. Hawks OVER 197.5 | 120-95 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Jazz/Hawks (7:35 EST). The 32-19 Utah Jazz are in Atlanta to take on the 30-21 Hawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive “shootout” written all over it. Utah has won two straight, most recently a 105-98 effort at home over the Hornets, while Atlanta enters off two straight wins as well, routing Orlando 113-86 at home on Saturday. It’s interesting to note that Atlanta has won nine of the last 11 in this series, but Utah took the first meeting 95-68 in the first matchup this year back on November 25th in front of the home town crowd. Atlanta was struggling with offensive consistency at that point of the season, but has turned things around of late. Utah averages just 99.5 PPG and concedes only 94.5. The Jazz offense was firing on all cylinders against the Hornets though and I’m expecting that momentum to get carried over into this one, as Utah would go on to shoot 47 percent from the floor and hit 13 of 33 three-pointers. Gordon Hayward exploded for 33 points and eight boards in the win. The Hawks so far average 103.9 PPG and concede 103.9 as well. Paul Milsap leads the team with 17.9 points, eight boards and 3.8 assists per game. In the win over the Magic, ATL shot 52.6 percent from the floor and was 10 of 28 from range. I’ll point out that Utah has already seen the total go over the number in 12 of 16 this year after scoring 105 points or more, while Atlanta has seen the total sail above the posted number in three of its last four in the same position. I think the home side pushes the pace as it looks to avenge the earlier dud in Utah and as a result, expect this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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02-06-17 | Sabres v. Devils -117 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the New Jersey Devils (7:00 EST). The 21-20-5-5 Buffalo Sabres are in New Jersey to take on the 22-21-8-2 Devils and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Buffalo looks primed for a letdown here after its satisfying 4-0 home win over the Senators. New Jersey looks to build momentum today after its 5-1 road win over Columbus. A date against the inconsistent Sabres is just what the doctor ordered to keep the ball rolling as Buffalo is in fact just 1-5 in its last six trips to New Jersey. Sabres’ goaltender Robin Lehner is 7-9 with a 2.89 GAA on the road. He’s also just 1-5 with a 2.79 GAA lifetime against the Devils. Note that Buffalo averages 2.43 GPG and concedes 2.71. New Jersey averages 2.30 GPG and concedes 2.83. Cory Schneider is 10-8 with a 2.49 GAA at home and is 6-5 with a 1.61 GAA lifetime against Buffalo. I’ll point out that Buffalo is just 50-103 in its last 153 games when playing on one days rest, while New Jersey is 5-1 in its last six home games in this series. I like New Jersey to break its losing streak today and all things considered, do definitely feel we’re getting a great price on the motivated home side. Good luck…Larry |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons UNDER 58.5 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -103 | 322 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Patriots/Falcons (6:30 EST). Michelle Obama famously said during campaign, “When they go low, we go high.” Well, it works in reverse, too, and bettors are urged to take a hard look at the Super Bowl under. Oddsmakers have set the number at a whopping 58.5, the highest in SB history. You can make an argument that the number is legit. The Falcons piled up 475 yards a game this year (best in the NFL) and have continued moving the ball in the playoffs. New England basically scores whenever it has to, and plenty of times when it doesn’t. Tom Brady with an army of quality receivers and a mad scientist offensive coordinator (Josh McDaniels) can be frightening. All that said, signs point to under under play. Getting to 59 leaves very little margin for error, relies on short fields (both teams stress ball security), and will have two weeks to work on defensive schemes to at least somewhat cool down the potent offenses. The Falcons defense got the job done against Seattle and Green Bay. No one in the NFL gave up fewer points this year than New England did. This time around there will be more field goals than touchdowns, and that means a payday for under players who swim against the traditional over tide. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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02-05-17 | Patriots v. Falcons +3 | Top | 34-28 | Loss | -106 | 322 h 7 m | Show |
My 10 SUPER BOWL 51 TOP SIDE PLAY is on the Atlanta Falcons (6:30 EST). The Super Bowl-champion Atlanta Falcons. Maybe not, but even if they don’t beat the Patriots in the 51st running of America’s favorite game, they will cover and reward bettors who risk some of their hard-earned cash. It won’t be easy. Taking down the Patriots in a big game never is. But the Falcons are a freight train right now, they have the league’s MVP, they have one of the top three receivers in the world, they have a defense that is getting stops and turnovers, and it is all coming together at the right time. Atlanta will win it by taking a page out of the New York Giants’ SB playbook and pressuring Tom Brady, especially up the middle. Houston also had (a little) success coming straight at Brady, who is at his weakest when flushed from the pocket. And the Falcons’ offense has progressed far enough to understand and adjust to New England’s constantly changing defensive schemes. Oddsmakers opened with the Falcons getting three from the 4-time Super Bowl champs, who have had to lay points in their last 8 games after showing that they are indeed for real. Grab the 3, put it in your back pocket. The Falcons are ready to take flight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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02-05-17 | Clippers +6 v. Celtics | Top | 102-107 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* CASH BOMB is on the LA Clippers (2:05 EST). The 31-19 LA Clippers are in Boston to take on the 32-18 Boston Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Clippers are the “hungrier” team in my estimation as they come in having lost three of their last four, most recently a 133-120 setback at home to Golden State on Thursday. Conversely, the surging Celtics look poised for a letdown here after winning their sixth straight, most recently a 113-107 win at home over the Lakers on Friday night. Note that LA averages 108.4 PPG and concedes just 104.7. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 21.4 points, 8.7 boards and 4.6 assists per game. Boston averages 108.3 PPG and concedes 105.7. Isaiah Thomas leads the way with 29.9 points and 6.3 assists per game. These are two good teams, but they’re moving in opposite directions right now. But I think that trend starts to move the other way tonight. Boston is likely playing its best ball of the season, but after six straight wins, including three straight at home, and with two nights off before a long Western Conference road swing, I think it finally has a letdown here. It’s the perfect situation for the Clippers (and us!), to take advantage of. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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02-05-17 | Flames v. Rangers -156 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Rangers (2:00 EST). The 27-24-1-2 Calgary Flames are in New York to take on the 32-18-0-1 Rangers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Calgary has been playing well of late, but I think has a letdown in the Big Apple. The Flames come in having won three straight, while New York has won four of its last six. The Flames most recently won 4-3 in OT in New Jersey. Calgary has gotten inconsistent goaltending, as Brian Elliot is 11-13 with a 2.80 GAA on the year and is 6-8 with a 3.02 GAA on the road. He’s also just 2-7 with a 2.84 GAA against the Blue Shirts. If Chad Johnson gets the nod, the numbers aren’t much better as he’s 16-13 with a 2.50 GAA on the year and is 1-1 with a 3.18 GAA lifetime against the Rangers. Calgary averages 2.61 GPG, while conceding 2.80. New York averages the second most goals per game with 3.35, while ranked 12th in goals allowed at 2.65 per contest. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 22-14 with a 2.73 GAA and is 5-3 with a 2.58 GAA lifetime against Calgary. The Rangers have tighted things up defensively of late though, having allowed just 13 goals over their last six games. Calgary is just 2-5 in its last seven on the road and has lost its last four straight in New York. The Rangers’ offense is ranked No. 2 in the league and now finally their goaltending and defensive play is starting to catch up. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price on the home side. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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02-04-17 | Wild -153 v. Canucks | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Wild (10:00 EST). The 33-12-3-2 Minnesota Wild are in Vancouver to take on the 23-22-4-2 Canucks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Minnesota will be in a foul mood after a painful 5-1 loss in Calgary. The Canucks are floundering though as they come in having lost three of their last four. The Wild don’t need to hang their heads obviously, it was just their first regulation loss since Nov. 29th. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk is now 27-9-3 with a 1.96 GAA on the year. Minnesota averages 3.28 GPG and concedes just 2.28. Vancouver averages just 2.27 GPG, while conceding 2.78. After a 3-0 loss to the Coyotes, the Canucks would then fall 4-1 to the Sharks. Goaltender Ryan Miller is 14-13-3 with a 2.53 GAA on the year. I’ll point out that Minnesota is 9-0 its last nine after scoring two goals or less, while Vancouver is 0-4 in its last four againts teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Wild play with revenge here as well after losing in Vancouver earlier in the year. All things considered, I think we’re getting a very fair price in this one, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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