For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -150 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -150 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Col Rockies at 4:35 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers are on the verge of advancing to the NLCS for the first time since 2011, after winning the first two games of this NLDS matchup at Miller Park. The Brewers took Game 1 by the score of 3-2 (10 innings) and then won 4-0 in Game 2. The series now moves to Coors Field and the Brewers take a 10-game winning streak into Game 3, going back to the regular season. In stark contrast, the Rockies are hoping a return to Coors Field after some extended travel, can help ignite an offense that has totaled a modest six runs in four games. The Rockies last played at home this past Sunday but then lost 5-2 on Monday in Los Angeles to the Dodgers in Game No. 163. That forced them to travel to Wrigley Field for the wild-card game on Tuesday, where they beat the Chicago Cubs 2-1 in 13 innings. A day off was followed by Games 1 & 2 of this series in Milwaukee against the Brewers. Sunday's pitching matchup will feature Arizona lefty Wade Miley (5-2, 2.57 ERA) going up against Colorado's German Marquez (14-11, 3.77 ERA). Miley made a pair of May starts, before going on the DL.He returned on July 12 and the team is a 'healthy' 12-4 in his 16 starts here in 2018. He hasn't suffered a loss since Aug 18 at St Louis but his last two outings have not been good (7 IP / & 7 ERs / 9.00 ERA). A positive note is that Miley is 7-2 with a 3.89 ERA in 14 games (13 starts) against the Rockies in his career. Freeland has been Colorado's ace in 2018 but Marquez has developed into the team's No. 2 starter. He finished 2018 with a career-high 230 Ks over 196 innings and the 23-year-old did not allow more than three ERs in any of his last 13 starts (2.25 ERA), surrendering two or fewer ERs in 11 of those starts. In order to break Milwaukee's 10-game winning streak, Colorado's bats will need to 'wake up!' The Rockies have gone 2-for-26 (.077) with RISP over their four games this week, including 1-for-12 (.083) in the two losses to the Brewers. Overall in the NLDS, the Rockies are hitting .154 (10-for-65) with nine singles, one triple and 22 strikeouts. Colorado manager Bud Black told reporters, "I think playing at home can get us going. We still need to do what we have to do to win. We've got to pitch well and we have to swing the bats. We have pitched well (in Milwaukee) but we haven't swung the bats. Again, day off (Saturday), get back on the horse on Sunday and see where we are." Both starters will be making their respective postseason debuts, so it should surely help Marquez being at home. More than just being at home, Marquez should be full of confidence, with a 2.25 ERA and 118-17 KW ratio over his last 13 starts (88 innings). He's also limited opponents to a .204 average and .580 OPS in that span. NO sweep here! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Rams -7 v. Seahawks | Top | 33-31 | Loss | -114 | 148 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* 35-Club Play is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). To “be the champ” you have to “beat the champ.” That’s the old saying right? Seattle hasn’t really been the “top dog” in the NFC West for a couple years now, but no team has really stepped up to dominate the No. 1 slot. It’s been in limbo until this season, as clearly the 4-0 Rams are the “cream of the crop” of the division, the conference and perhaps the league at this point. However, this will be LA’s chance to officially and once and for all take full control as the division leader and I look for the high-powered Rams to do just that. Rams’ QB Jared Goff already has 1,406 yards, 11 TD’s and just two INT’s, while RB Todd Gurley II has 338 rushing yards and four TD’s. WR Brandin Cooks has 452 receiving yards, while Cooper Kupp has 348 yards and four TD’s. Overall the Rams are averaging 35 PPG and conceding just 16.8. Seattle comes in off a much tougher than expected 20-17 win at Arizona last week. QB Russell Wilson has 888 yards, seven TD’s and three INT’s. RB Chris Carson has 177 yards on the ground, while WR Tyler Lockett has 249 yards and three TD’s. Overall the Hawks average just 21.2 PPG, while allowing 20.3. The Rams come in well rested after playing last Thursday and they have all the motivation in the World this week to put one more nail in the Seahawks’ coffin this season. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after two or more consecutive SU wins, while LA is 7-3 ATS in its last ten as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 52.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 148 h 51 m | Show | |
My 9* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Chargers (4:05 EST). Oakland comes in off a 45-42 home win over Cleveland, while LA held on for a tough 29-27 victory over San Francisco. After both teams played to higher-scoring “shoot-outs” last weekend, I’m expecting a much more defensive “chess match” in Week 5. Raiders’ RB Marshawn Lynch had a big game against the Browns, going for 130 yards. He now had 300 yards rushing and three TD’s. LA is 18th against the run, so look for Jon Gruden to establish the run game throughout tonight. The weakness in Oakland is on the defensive side, but I think the unit bounces back this weekend. The Chargers can’t be happy with the way they performed last week, facing the 49ers and a back-up QB as a 14 point fav, they barely held on for the victory. Philip Rivers continues to be a bright spot for the Chargers, he has 11 TD’s and two INT’s. I’ll point out though that LA has seen the total go under the number in seven of its last ten against teams with losing records, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and in ten of its last 13 against the division. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Falcons +3.5 v. Steelers | 17-41 | Loss | -115 | 145 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Both teams are desperate for a victory and I’m expecting an all out battle until the end. Atlanta is 1-3 overall and it’s coming off consecutive home losses to New Orleans and Cincinnati. The Steelers have struggled as well this year, most recently coming off a humbling loss at home to the Ravens. Atlanta is 28th in the league on the defensive side of the ball, but it did look somewhat better in the second half of its 37-36 loss to the Bengals. The offense took a step back last year, but it’s now the team’s strength. Matt Ryan and company will be given the green light here today obviously to test this suspect Steelers’ secondary. The Steelers have been dealing with on field and off field issues all year. Note that Pittsburgh isn’t going to have star RB Le’Veon Bell back until Week 8 against Cleveland and his backup James Conner is averaging just 3.7 YPC. With such a one-dimensional offense, the Falcons’ defense definitely catches a break this week. I’ll point out as well that ATL is still 7-3 ATS in its last ten against teams with losing records, while Pittsburgh is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Giants +7 v. Panthers | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 145 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). The New York Giants’ season is on the line, as a 1-4 record would almost assuredly be too much for it to dig out of to make the playoffs. Last week the Giants fell 33-18 at home to the Saints. QB Eli Maning so far has 1,055 yards with four TD’s and one INT, wile RB Saquon Barkley has 260 rushing yards and three TD’s. WR Odell Beckham Jr. has 331 receiving yards. The offense has been the weak point to this point, but the defense has kept the team competitive each week. The Panthers are clearly the “better” team, but they come in off their bye-week and think that “rest” is going to lead to “rust.” QB Cam Newtwon has 646 yards with five TD’s and one INT, while also rushing for three more TD’s. RB Christian McCaffrey has 271 yards on the ground. Fortunately for the Giants, the Panthers only average 23.7 PPG. Also note that Carolina is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while New York is 5-2 ATS In its last seven as an underdog in the same points range. I think the Giants’ defense once again keeps them in this one. Grab the points, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-06-18 | California v. Arizona -1.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 130 h 48 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Arizona (10:00 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. Arizona QB Khalil Tate has struggled somewhat this year, but I think he’ll have his opportunities tonight against the Golden Bears. Cal looks ripe for the picking here after its first loss of the season in a 42-24 home defeat to No. 19 Oregon. The Golden Bears would go on to commit five turnovers in the setback. Cal utilizes a two QB system, but both Mcillwain and Garbers struggled against the Ducks defensive pressure. In all they combined for two fumbles and four INT’s. Overall Cal comes in averaging 28.5 PPG, while conceding 25. The Wildcats are averaging 31.6 PPG and conceding 28.4. Tate was 16 of 33 for 232 yards, two TD’s and one INT in last week’s 24-20 loss to USC. RB JJ Taylor remains a standout with 527 yards rushing and three TD’s so far (5.9 YPC.) I’ll point out as well that Cal is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games after scoring 21 points or less in its previous contest. I like Tate to bounce back here. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Notre Dame -5 v. Virginia Tech | 45-23 | Win | 100 | 128 h 10 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Notre Dame 8* (8:00 EST). Notre Dame is undefeated so far this season and I think the Irish carry over that momentum over at least one more game. Last week ND defeated a good Stanford team. Virginia Tech is 3-1, its lone loss was a big upset to ODU. In the victory over the Cardinal, ND QB Ian Book was 24 of 33 for 278 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. WR Miles Boykin had 11 catches for 144 yards. The Hokies were a 6.5 point underdog in Duke last week, but they ended leaving with a 31-14 outright victory. QB Ryan Willis had 332 yards and three TD’s. Note though that the VT defense is suspect, especially after allowing 632 yards of offense to the Monarchs just two weeks ago. I’ll point out as well that the Hokies are 0-5 ATS in their last five after allowing more than 250 passing yards in their previous game, while ND is 7-2 ATS in its last nine following a three games or more unbeaten streak. VT is still without starting QB Josh Jackson to injury. I think his backup is going to struggle against this focused and talented Notre Dame defense though. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Yankees +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 6-2 | Win | 105 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the NY Yankees at 8:05 ET. Chris Sale left the mound to a standing ovation and then waited along with anxious Red Sox fans while the Boston bullpen frittered away most of a five-run lead. I noted in taking Game 1 "over 7 1/2," that Boston relievers had a cumulative 4.84 ERA over the team's last 126 1/3 innings this season. Last night, five Boston relievers allowed two inherited runners to score plus allowed two runs in 3 2/3 innings (that would be a 4.91 ERA!). However, Sale was able to savor the first postseason win of his career, after Boston held on for a 5-4 victory over its longtime rivals in Game 1 of the ALDS. J.D. Martinez hit a three-run HR in the first and Boston added more two runs in the third, which was good enough. Game 2's pitching matchup will feature New York's Masahiro Tanaka (12-6, 3.75 ERA) up against Boston's David Price (16-7, 3.58 ERA). Tanaka has been consistently inconsistent in 2018, as evidenced by him allowing eight ERs over eight innings in his last two starts of the regular season, after giving up just one ER over 21 innings during a three-start winning streak. All told, the Yankees went 16-11 in his 27 starts but his moneyline mark sits at minus-$490. Tanaka is 8-4 with a 4.35 ERA in 18 career outings vs the Red Sox but that includes him going 1-0 with a 7.58 ERA in four starts against Boston this season (Yanks were 2-2). David Price began slowly in 2018 but Boston won 19 of his last 23 starts. He finished with 16 wins and an impressive moneyline mark of plus-$1294 (Boston was 22-8 in all of his starts), which ranked 8th-best among all MLB starting pitchers. Price has seen plenty of the Yankees in his career, going 15-14 with a 4.90 ERA in 42 career appearances (41 starts) against them. However, that include Price going 0-3 with a 10.34 ERA in four starts against New York (Boston was 1-3) in 2018. I noted in my Game 1 analysis of this series that Boston won the season series 11-8 and those games averaged 11.47 RPG (one of major reason I played "over"). I'm tempted to go over again here but while the total was just 7 1/2 Friday, it is 9 for this Game 2. While I'm not completely 'sold' on Tanaka, I will note that he is 7-1 with a respectable 3.47 ERA and excellent 0.98 WHIP on the road in 2018. However, the "clincher' is, just how can one back Price in the postseason? For all his regular season prowess, he's an abysmal 2-8 with a 5.03 ERA in 17 appearances. NINE of those have been starts and he's 0-8 and his teams 0-9!! Anyone about to say "he's due?" Not I. P.S. Don't forget about that AWFUL Boston bullpen! Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M -5 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on Texas A&M (7:00 EST). Kentucky comes in off back-to-back wins and I think it’ll get caught complacent after victories over then No. 14 Mississippi State and last week’s 24-10 effort over South Carolina. Texas A&M bounced back last week from a loss to Alabama by beating Arkansas 24-17. Kentucky comes in ranked as the No. 13 team in the country after starting the year 5-0. The defense has been the biggest difference this season Mark Stoops’ team. However, I think that unit is going to be tested by the Aggies up-tempo offense today in this difficult road venue. Texas A&M might have two losses already, but it’s been against Alabama and Clemson (and note that in the setback to the Tigers, it came down to final moments.) In last week’s win RB Trayveon Williams was a stand out with 152 rushing yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out as well that Kentucky is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after an ATS win and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 played on grass, while Texas A&M is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records and 6-2-1 in its last nine following a SU victory. I think Kentucky will indeed finally come up short in College Station. The Wildcats aren’t running the table this year and I look for the perfect start to come to an end here. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Northern Illinois -3.5 v. Ball State | 24-16 | Win | 100 | 123 h 50 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Northern Illinois 8* (3:00 EST). NIU will look to keep the foot on the gas here after a 2-0 start in the West Division of the MAC. Ball State ended a three-game skid with a win over lowly Kent State last weekend. NIU took out EMU 26-23 last week. The Huskies’ defense is limiting teams to just 348.6 YPG though, which ranks 41st nationally. The offense leaves everything to desire, but NIU catches a break this week facing Ball State. Last week the Cardinals hammered Kent State 52-24, but the Flashes are just terrible defensively. So far Ball State’s numbers are skewed because of a dominant offensive performance against an FCS opponent to start the year. I’ll point out as well that Ball State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records, while NIU is 19-7-1 ATS in its last 27 road games against teams with losing home records. I think the Huskies’ tough defensive play is the difference in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Boston College +4 v. NC State | Top | 23-28 | Loss | -102 | 120 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (12:30 EST). Boston College bounced back from its first loss of the year to secure a convincing 45-35 win over Temple at home last Saturday, which was a potential “trap” for the Eagles. With that “land-mine” out of the way, I think BC will at the very least, keep this one competitive down to the final moments. NC State comes in a tiny bit complacent, still unbeaten after hammering Virginia 35-21 at home last weekend. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Boston College after NC State won 17-14 on the road in the last matchup on November 11th, 2017. BC is averaging 43.2 PPG and it’s conceding just 26.8. QB Anthony Brown has 861 passing yards with 12 TD’s and four INT’s. RB AJ Dillon has 652 yards rushing with six TD’s. NC State is averaging 34.3 PPG and it’s conceding 15.3. QB Ryan Finley has 1,313 yards with eight TD’s and one INT. RB Reggie Gallaspy II has 220 yards and five scores. I’ll point out though that BC is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while NC State is only 2-4 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival. I think the Eagles’ high-flying offense finally tests this NC State Wolfpack defense. Look for this one to be decided by whichever of these teams has its hands on the ball last and grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Syracuse -5.5 v. Pittsburgh | 37-44 | Loss | -106 | 120 h 10 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Syracuse 8* (12:20 EST) Syracuse enters off a 27-23 loss to No. 3 Clemson, while Pitt returns home after a humbling 45-14 beatdown loss to No. 13 UCF last Saturday. The Orange average 44.2 PPG and they concede 21.4. Last week Syracuse took the loss despite allowing only one turnover, while forcing three. QB Eric Dungey so far has 1,013 yards with nine TD’s and two INT’s, while Moe Neal has 367 yards on the ground and two scores. The Panthers average 22.4 PPG and they concede 32. QB Kenny Pickett has 743 years, five TD’s and four INT’s (he also has 111 rushing yards and two more scores.) Qadree Oillison has 404 yards on the ground with four more scores. I’ll point out though that Pitt is just 1-4-1 ATS in its last six after allowing more than 280 yards passing in its previous game, while Syracuse is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The Orange gave Clemson everything it could handle and I have a hard time seeing the Panthers keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Utah State +2.5 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 107 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* RIVALRY ROUT is on Utah State (9:00 EST). Utah State comes in fresh off its bye and while the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing the handful of points. In their previous game the Aggies posted a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. BYU returns home dejected after its listless 35-7 road loss to Washington. If recent history is any precedence, then Utah State has to be loving its chances here today, as note that it would destroy BYU 40-24 at home in last year’s matchup. Note that Utah State also managed to score 31 points against a strong Michigan State team in Week 1. QB Jordan Love had 356 passing yards and two TD’s in the win over the Falcons two weeks ago. The Aggies also feature a strong run game with Darwin Thompson and Gerold Bright combining for over 550 yards already. Utah State’s defense has also been decent. Overall the Aggies are averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing 23.8. BYU is averaging 21.4 PPG and it’s conceding just 20.6. Its two-game win skein came to an end in last week’s setback to No. 11 Washington. QB Tanner Mangum was 18 of 21 for 160 yards. He has 772 passing yards and a weak 3/2 TD/INT. RB Squally Canada so far has 335 rushing yards and five TD’s to lead the offensive side of things for BYU. The Cougars outstanding defensive play has led to victories over Arizona and Wisconsin already this season, but I think the unit will stumble here against this high-octane Aggies unit, which comes in rested as well. I’ll point out as well that BYU is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home, while Utah State is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Aggies. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Total of the Week is on NYY/Bos Over at 7:30 ET. The Yankee/Red Sox rivalry ranks with the very best in any sport. New York won 100 games during the regular season but still needed to survive a one-game wild card playoff on Wednesday, which the Yankees won 7-2. That victory sends them to Fenway Park on Friday night to face the 108-win Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox set a franchise record for wins during the regular season and ran away with the AL East. However, it's "all even" now, as the first team to three wins will advance to the ALCS. The teams meet in the postseason since 2004, when Boston came from down 0-3 to win four in a row. The Yankees set a MLB record with 267 HRs and rank second in runs scored (5.25 per) and OPS (.781). Boston enters the postseason ranking first in runs scored (5.41 per), BA (.268) and OPS (.792). Boston won the season series 11-8. The pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, J.A. Happ (17-6, 3.65 ERA) of the Yankees and Chris Sale (12-4, 2.11 ERA) of teh Red Sox. Happ has been excellent for New York, going 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA in 11 starts (Yanks were 9-2) after being acquired from the Toronto Blue Jays. He closed on a strong note, posting a 1.86 ERA in five September outings. Sale spent September trying to build up his pitch count and strengthen his shoulder after two trips to the disabled list. He struggled in his last two outings, allowing a total of five runs on nine hits across eight innings. How can one trust Sale, who has thrown just 17 innings since July 27 because of a shoulder inflammation problem? What's more, the Red Sox enter the postseason loaded with bullpen questions, as Boston relievers had a cumulative 4.84 ERA over the team's last126 1/3 innings this season. Meanwhile, the Yankees' bullpen took care of the last five innings Wednesday night against Oakland and ranked fourth in bullpen ERA (3.38) during the regular season. As for Happ, he surrendered nine runs - four earned - on nine hits over 9 2/3 total innings at Fenway Park this season. It should come as no surprise that MLB's two-best offensive teams averagaed 11.47 RPG in their 19 regular season meetings. That means I'm Goin' Over in this one. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Col/Mil Over at 4:15 ET. The Milwaukee Brewers posted their NINTH straight victory (24th in their last 31 games) with Thursday's 3-2 (10 inn) win over the Colorado Rockies in Game 1 of this NLDS. Leading National League MVP candidate Christian Yelich hit a two-run HR and scored the winning run in the 10th (on Moustakas' game-winning RBI), after the Brewers let a 2-0 lead slip away in the ninth inning. Yelich reached base four times (HR, single and two walks) plus stole a base in his postseason debut. The loss was just Colorado's THIRD in its last 13 games. It's Game 2 of the series late this afternoon at Milwaukee, as Colorado lefty Tyler Anderson (7-9, 4.55 ERA) will square off against Milwaukee's Jhoulys Chacin (15-8, 3.50 ERA). It seems as if Anderson was able to earn this start by scattering four hits over 7 2/3 scoreless innings against Washington on Sunday to snap a 13-start winless streak during which he went 0-6 (team was 2-11). "I went through some struggles, but everyone does at some point or another," Anderson said in his press conference. "I was just happy that I was healthy, and I knew if I felt good and I and I stayed healthy and strong, I could find a way to fix it."That's a pretty optimistic outlook for a guy whose last win prior to last Sunday came way back on July 4. Chacin pitched in Monday's tiebreaker game against the Chicago Cubs and allowed one run on one hit (a solo HR in 5 2/3 innings before departing. The 30-year-old has had a "career season" in 2018, as the Brewers went 23-12 in all of his starts, giving him a plus-$1079 moneyline mark, which ranks 11th-best among all starting pitchers. Chacin played for Colorado from 2009-14. "Pretty much all the guys there are all my friends still, and pretty much all the coaches, too," Chacin said in his press conference. "It's special that I'm going to have the opportunity to pitch against them in the postseason, just happy that I'm going to have a chance to pitch against the Colorado Rockies." The Brewers only scored three runs in Game 1 but the team missed MANY chances, as they stranded 18 runners! That should change here vs Anderson, who was 'lit up' for seven runs and seven hits (including three HRs) over just four innings in a loss to Milwaukee back on Aug 4. Anderson is 1-2 with an 8.59 ERA in three career matchups against Milwaukee. As for Chacin, he's being asked to pitch on three days' rest and isn't Colorado's lineup overdue to break out? The Rockies have scored just two, three and two runs in their three games this week. Play the Over. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
10-05-18 | Indians v. Astros -124 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Hou Astros at 2:05 ET. It seems like MLB's newest 'toy' is to employ an "opener," a strategy (gimmick?) and it's already been used this postseason by Oakland and Milwaukee. However, the pitching matchup for Game 1 of the ALDS between the Cleveland Indians and Houston Astros will have "none of that," as a pair of former Cy Young winners square off. For Cleveland it will be Corey Kluber (20-7, 2.89 ERA), who took home Cy Youngs in 2014 and 2017, going up against Houston's Justin Verlander (16-9, 2.52 ERA), the AL's MVP and Cy Young winner back in 2011 while with the Tigers. The defending champion Astros won a franchise-best 103 games in winning the AL West by six games over the Oakland A's. The Indians won a more modest 91 games in 2018 but had little trouble in winning their third straight AL Central title, out-distancing the second-place Twins by 13 games. Both starting pitchers own impressive numbers, along with his 2.89 ERA, Kluber owns an 0.99 WHIP and .223 BAA. As for Verlander, along with his 2.52 ERA, his 0.90 WHIP and .200 BAA stand out. That said, both pitchers have not been moneymakers in 2018 with the Indians going 21-12 in Kluber's starts (minus-$190). The Astros were 21-13 in Verlander's starts but his losses were much greater (minus-$928). Then again, both come in pitching very will. Kluber recorded a 2.80 ERA during his final starts, going 4-0 (team was 4-2) to reach 20 victories for the first time and strike out at 200 for the fifth straight year. Verlander was 3-0 over his last five starts (Astros were 5-0), posting a 1.09 ERA and a 50-4 KW ratio. Looking closer, after being a star in the 2016 postseason (4-1, 1.83 ERA), Kluber was awful in the 2017 postseason in giving up nine ERs over 6 1/3 innings (12.79 ERA). Verlander came up big for the Astros in leading them to a World Series title last year and during his career, Verlander has made 10 appearances in LDS contests (nine starts), going 6-0 with a 2.29 ERA. I'm with Verlander in this one and will note that the Astros were 8-1 at home in the 2017 postseason. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Colts v. Patriots -10 | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 82 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New England Patriots (8:20 EST). I had a play on New England last week in its 38-7 win over the Dolphins. A short week is tough on both teams, but doubly so for the road side. The Pats come in off a confidence building win and they’ll be out to build off that victory and take advantage of this favorable spot against a dejected Colts team which comes in off a 37-34 OT loss to the Texans. The Colts rallied from a 28-10 hole, but in the end it wasn’t enough and after that heart-breaker, I don’t believe the team has had enough time to collectively re-group to face New England. QB Andrew Luck has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s so far, but he’s also been sacked nine times. Pats’ QB Tom Brady has 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. He’s been sacked six times. Note that the offense gets a major boost here as well with the return of main WR Julian Edelman from his four game suspension. TY Hilton is listed as questionable for the Colts and if he does manage to suit up, one has to wonder what type of form he’ll be in? I’ll point out that the Colts are a poor 12-15 ATS in their last 27 as the underdog, while the Patriots are a superb 29-12 in their last 41 as the favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on New England. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Blue Jackets v. Red Wings +113 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Red Wings 8* (7:30 EST). This is a triple revenge game for the Wings, as Columbus took all three meetings last year. Columbus averaged only 2.88 GPG last year. Its defense was ranked tenth overall in allowing just 2.76 GPG. Sergei Bobrovsky was 37-28 with a 2.42 GAA last year and while he’s enjoyed considerable success against the Wings in the past, I think he’ll come up short here on Opening Night. It’s a re-building year for Detroit, but it does have many nice pieces, including Gustav Nyquist, Dylan Larkin, Frans Nielsen and Andreas Athahasiou. Jimmy Howard is back in net after finishing 22-36 with a respectable 2.85 GAA last year. He’s 12-11 with a 2.00 GAA lifetime against Columbus and he owns a career 2.38 GAA at home. With a game at home tomorrow night against Carolina, I think the visitors also get caught “looking ahead.” Great spot to pull the trigger on the home dog. Play on the Wings. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Predators -145 v. Rangers | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nashville Predators (7:30 EST). Nashville won the Presidents Cup Trophy for best overall regular season record last year, but it would then lose in seven games to the Jets in the Western Conference second round. New York on the other hand finished last in the Eastern Conference. Predators head coach Peter Laviolette believes his team is ready to go all the way this year: “I think we’ve taken some steps in the right direction,” Laviolette assessed. “There’s some good things that we’ve done. There’s some positive things that we’ve done. But at the end of the day, it’s about winning that last game and being ahead until the last minute of a season ticks off.” The Predators will once again have one of the best defenses in the league as well, backed by one of the best goaltender in the league in Pekka Rinne. The Rangers’ No. 1 line consists of Mika Zibanejad, Chris Kreider, and Pavel Buchnevich. New York will remain somewhat competitive with veteran goaltender Henrik Lundqvist, but clearly it’s a re-building year for the Rangers: “It’s a honeymoon for everybody right now,” new head coach David Quinn commented. “I’m fully aware of that.” Note as well that New York is just 3-7 in its last ten at home, while Nashville is 4-1 in its last five on the road. The Predators offense is deep and Nashville is once again poised to make a serious run at the cup. Look for them to come in focused here and deliver the goods on Opening night. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-04-18 | Islanders v. Hurricanes -153 | 2-1 | Loss | -153 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Carolina Hurricanes 8* (7:00 EST). Neither team made the playoffs last year and they split the season series. The Islanders finished just under .500 last year, and that was with John Tavares in the line-up. New York now has Barry Trotz as the head coach and it has plenty of weapons as well in the likes of Anders Lee and Jordan Eberle. Last year New York though would allow 3.57 GPG, which was last in the NHL. Robin Lehner struggled with the Sabres last year and I think he’s going to have his hands full tonight as well. Last season he was 14-35 with a 3.01 GAA, including going 8-18 with a 3.34 GAA on the road. Lehner is 0-4 with a 4.25 GAA lifetime against the Hurricanes. Carolina lost Jeff Skinner and Lee Stempniak, but it brought in Douge Hamilton and Micheal Ferland through trades. Scott Darling is now the main man in net. He went 13-28 with a 3.18 GAA last year. Note though that he’s 3-2 with a 3.13 GAA lifetime against the Islanders. While neither team instills a lot of confidence, I’ll point out that the Isles are just 2-8 in their last ten road games. I like the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-03-18 | Flames -120 v. Canucks | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -120 | 38 h 8 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Calgary Flames (10:05 EST). Calgary returns its top four points getters from last year, including Johnny Gaudreau and Sean Monahan, who combined for 55 goals and 93 assists last season. Mike Smith isn’t getting any younger, but the veteran net minder comes in healthy at least. The Flames haven’t won their regular season opener since 2009-10, so they’ll absolutely be out to end that drought here. Calgary struggled last year, but the Canucks were horrible with 31 wins and 73 points under coach Travis Green’s first year. Two of their top three players in terms of points retired over the off-season (the Sedins), so the onus to guid the team falls on players like Brock Boeser and Bo Horvat. Vancouver may have won its opener in four straight years, but that streak is poised to end here as it tries to find its new identity early in the season. The visitors have the veteran experience and superior goaltending and could easily be a bigger favorite in my opinion. Play on the Flames. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs -126 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -126 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Playoff Payoff is on the Chi Cubs at 8:05 ET. The Chicago Cubs took the field on Monday afternoon tied for the best record in the National League but after a 3-1 home loss to the Brewers, find themselves playing for postseason 'survival' tonight against the Colorado Rockies. The Rockies also lost a one-game tiebreaker for the NL West title, 5-2 in LA against the Dodgers. Colorado missed a chance to capture its first division title in franchise history but the Rockies are in the playoffs in back-to-back seasons for the first time in 26 years! Tonight's pitching matchup features a pair of lefties, Kyle Freeland (17-7, 2.85 ERA) of Colorado and Jon Lester (18-6, 3.32 ERA) of Chicago. Freeland has delivered a breakout season, closing on a run of 11 consecutive quality starts in which he went 8-0 with a 2.18 ERA (Rockies were 10-1). Freeland ended the regular season with MLB's second-best money line mark (plus-$1,486) as the Rockies were 23-10 in all of his starts. Lester is a 34-year-old vet and he went 6-1 with a 1.71 ERA over his last eight starts (Cubs went 7-1), throwing six scoreless innings to beat Pittsburgh 3-0 in his regular-season finale.Lester didn't finish too far behind Freeland in the moneyline standings, as with the Cubs going 24-8 in his starts, he earned $1,415 (5th-best). The Rockies had won nine of 10 games prior to Monday’s loss, when they were held scoreless until the ninth inning. The Chicago bats were equally 'silent,' as Anthony Rizzo’s solo HR accounted for the Cubs’ lone run. Kyle Freeland 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts (Colorado was 12-2) since the All-Star break and has not lost since Aug 1. Those are impressive numbers but he is 0-2 in a pair of career starts against the Cubs (4.15 ERA). What's more, he's being asked to start on three days' rest. Lester may be just 1-3 against the Rockies but he owns a 2.25 ERA in those five career starts. More importantly, he's no stranger to October baseball, as he’s set to make his 26th postseason appearance, including his 22nd postseason start. In that span, he owns an impressive 2.55 ERA over 148 innings with a 124-39 KW ratio. Experience counts. Cubs Win! Cubs Win! Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
10-01-18 | Chiefs v. Broncos +4.5 | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 35 h 15 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Denver Broncos (8:15 EST). The bookmakers are leading us to believe that Kansas City will continues its blistering start to the season with another massive offensive performance on the road and on the National stage. I’m not convinced though. A “letdown” is imminent at some point for Patrick Mahomes and the high-flying Chiefs, and the thin air of Mile High will prove to be the difference in my opinion. Outright upset? Of course it’s not out of the question, but in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever one of these team’s has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. The Chiefs are 3-0, but the Broncos are 2-1 and they aren’t going down without a fight tonight. Here is an amazing fact, and one which I believe will catch up to Kansas City today, as note that it’s been out-gained in all three games that it’s played in so far this year. Denver ran out of gas against Baltimore in Week 3 after holding a 14-10 lead after one quarter. Mahomes and the Chiefs played in Denver in Week 17 last year and he wasn’t his best, going 22 of 35 for 281 yards and an INT. KC won the game 27-24. I’ll point out as well that KC is still just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records, while Denver is 5-2 ATS in its last seven as a home dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Broncos. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Ravens +3.5 v. Steelers | 26-14 | Win | 100 | 133 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* MAGIC is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST). Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over Tampa Bay, but I think it’ll take a predictable step back here. Baltimore lost to Cincinnati, but it bounced back big last week against the Broncos and I look for it to carry that momentum over here. Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has struggled so far this year, but he now faces a porous Pittsburgh defensive front which is allowing 122.3 YPG on the ground to opposing offenses. QB Joe Flacco continues to look great at times and poor in others. Pittsburgh managed to put together its best effort of the season in last week’s victory over Tampa Bay. WR Antonio Brown had 50 yards receiving and a TD. Ben Roethlisberger looked great last week, but he’s always had his hands full with the Ravens’ pass rushers. Note as well that Pittsburgh is a poor 8-10 ATS in its last 18 at home and only 5-7 ATS In its last 12 against the division, while Baltimore is 9-4 ATS in its last 13 against the division and 9-5 ATS in its last 14 games when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3. I think the Ravens take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Browns +3 v. Raiders | 42-45 | Push | 0 | 147 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST). I had a play on the Browns last Thursday night and I think they’ll keep this one competitive here as well. Cleveland comes in off its first win in two years against the Jets after Baker Mayfield replaced Tyrod Taylor. Oakland on the other hand is ripe of the picking, dejected and still searching for its first win of the season. Jon Gruden is rich, but he obviously can’t be happy where his team is currently sitting. Last week Mayfield was 17 of 23 for 201 yards. He didn’t throw a TD, but I think he’ll have plenty of chances today against this suspect Raiders’ secondary. Oakland has given up an average of 374.3 yards and 28 points on average this year. QB Derek Carr has averaged 312 passing yards per game, but note that he has three more INT’s than he does TD’s to this point. RB Marshawn Lynch has been a bright spot with 170 yards and three scores. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home. The Browns don’t have too many positive ATS stats after such a long losing streak, but as mentioned off the top, I do absolutely feel that the pieces are in place for Cleveland to continue progression across the board. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | Top | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New England Patriots (1:00 EST). It’s been a lack-lustre start for the Pats, while everything has gone right for the Dolphins to this point. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home team. And there’s no doubt that’s the case in this one in my opinion, as Tom Brady and New England will be out to atone for last week’s disastrous 26-10 road loss to Detroit (I had the Lions in that one, my Week 2 LEGEND.) I think this is a classic letdown spot/trap game for Miami though after starting the year 3-0. QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s last week. The run game only posted 41 yards though. The Dolphins’ defense also allowed 345 passing yards last week. Overall Miami is averaging 25 PPG and allowing 17.3. Brady was 14 of 26 for 133 yards, one TD and one INT last week. RB Sony Michel had 50 yards rushing last week. The defense conceded 414 total yards and overall the unit is allowing 25.7 PPG. I’ll point out though that Miami is still just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 against the division, while New England is 8-4 ATS in the same position (also 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a home favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range.) Brady was embarrassed last week and he’ll be out to destroy the Fish to make amends. Look for the veteran super star to put together his biggest game of the year and lay the points with confidence. Play on the Pats. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Lions +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 144 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Detroit Lions (1:00 EST). My Week 3 LEGEND was on Detroit last Sunday night and it came away with the convincing win over the Patriots. I think the Lions carry that momentum over here. Dallas is a mess and I think it’s ripe for the picking. So far it’s scored the fewest points through its first three games of a season since 1990. Last week the Cowboys fell 24-13 to Seattle. RB Ezekiel Elliot had 127 yards, but QB Dak Prescott was just 19 of 34 for 168 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Prescott has been a disaster, not throwing for more than 170 yards in any game so far while posting a miserable 33.7 QBR. The Cowboys’ defense took a blow last week as well when DL Tyrone Crawford and safety Jeff Heath both left with injury. So far Dallas averages 13.7 PPG, while allowing 17.7. Detroit is averaging 393.3 YPG, but just 23.3 PPG. The defense is allowing 29.3 PPG, but clearly the unit catches a big break this week facing the punchless Cowboys’ offense. Lions’ QB Matthew Stafford was 27 of 36 for 262 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Pats’ QB Tom Brady was held to just 133 yards, one TD and one INT. Note as well that Dallas is just 12-25-1 ATS in its last 38 on field turf, while Detroit is 6-1-1 ATS In its last eight against a team with a losing record. Detroit’s offense looked good last week and I expect it to be a difference maker in tho sone as well. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Jets v. Jaguars OVER 38 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 144 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Jets/Jags (1:00 EST). It’s an important game for both teams. I think this total will eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch. New York comes in off a 21-17 loss to Cleveland. The Jets had a 14-0 lead, but they were unable to hold on down the stretch. Overall though the Jets have been competitive this year, averaging 25.7 PPG and conceding 19.3. Sam Darnold has 701 passing yards, three TD’s and five INT’s through three games. Jacksonville beat the Patriots and then it fell flat in last week’s 9-6 loss to Tennessee. QB Blake Bortles had 155 yards passing. So far the Jags are averaging 19.0 PPG and allowing just 14.7. I’ll point out though that Jacksonville has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 at home, while New York has seen the total fly over the posted number in eight of its last 13 against teams with winning records. These are two under-performing offenses which come in with something to prove. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | USC v. Arizona UNDER 61 | Top | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 110 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under USC/Arizona (10:30 EST). Arizona has won back to back gams, including a 35-14 victory over Oregon State to open Pac-12 play last Saturday. The Wildcats will be tested by USC, which is 2-2 overall and 1-1 in Pac-12 play. Last week JT Daniels threw for 241 yards and three TD’s in his team’s 39-36 come from behind win over WSU. After that emotional victory though, I do definitely feel that the Trojans are poised for a bit of a letdown this week. Tyler Vaughns was another standout last week with 64 receiving yards and a TD. The run game was strong as well, posting 155 overall. Arizona RB JJ Taylor rushed for a career-high 284 yards last week, and he had scoring runs of 62 and 40 yards. QB Khalil Tate has been turned into more of a pocket passer this year; last season he rushed for 1,411 yards and so far this season he has 73 total yards. But the Wildcats’ defense was the most impressive thing to me last week, holding Oregon State to a season-low 238 yards. Arizona had been horrible defensively before that, but it was a big step in the right direction and I think the unit has a big opportunity to build off that performance against what I believe to be a “gassed” Trojans’ offense. I’ll point out as well that USC has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as a road favorite, while Arizona has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five as an underdog. I think the stage is set for more of a defensive battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Marshall v. Western Kentucky +6.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 107 h 49 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Western Kentucky 9* (7:30 EST). Marshall comes in off its first loss of the year in a setback against NC State last week. The Thundering Herd broke a three-game losing streak in this series last year, but I think WKU will bounce back and revenge that loss with its first home victory over the season. Marshall allowed 377 passing yards last week. QB Isaiah Green has been very lacklustre as well to this point, coming in sporting a 6/3 TD/INT ratio. WKU won’t be taking anything for granted. After a tough 0-3 start, the Hilltoppers now look to build off last week’s solid 28-20 win over Ball State. WKU’s defense has made big strides in just two games and I think that momentum gets carried over here. I’ll point out as well that Marshall is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range, while WKU is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog in the same points range. I don’t think home field can be overlooked as a factor working in favor of WKU here either. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Iowa State +10.5 v. TCU | Top | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Iowa State (7:00 EST). Both teams are hungry for its first conference victory. TCU comes in dejected off two straight losses, most recently to Ohio State (40-28) and Texas (31-16) this past weekend. Iowa State on the other hand enters off a confidence building 26-13 home win over Akron, snapping a two-game slide to Iowa (13-3) and Oklahoma (37-27). If recent history is any precedence, then Iowa State has to be liking its chances today, because last year it upset TCU 14-7 on the road. Iowa State turns to QB Zeb Noland, who has completed 68.8 percent of his passes for 636 yards and one INT in three games. In the loss to Oklahoma he had 360 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Cyclones are allowing just 21 PPG and 3.46 YPC. The defense posted ten tackles for a loss, four sacks, seven pass breakups, four QB hits and also forced two fumbles in the victory over Akron. TCU QB Shawn Robinson turned it over three times and also lost a fumble in last week’s setback. Robinson finished 17 of 28 for 197 yards, one TD and two INT’s. So far he has five TD’s and six INT’s. The offense is averaging 443.8 YPG, while the defense is conceding 22.5 PPG. I’ll point out though that TCU is just 3-14 ATS in its last 17 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Iowa State is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight on the road. I think the Cyclones’ defense keeps them in this one late. TCU QB Robinson is struggling with turnovers, which doesn’t bode well facing this talented Iowa State unit. I also think Noland continues his progress as well. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I’m grabbing the points and expecting a “nail-biter.” Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Hawaii v. San Jose State +13.5 | 44-41 | Win | 100 | 106 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* DISCOUNT BLOWOUT is on San Jose State (7:00 EST). San Jose State comes in desperate as it’s so far winless to this point. Hawaii has so far exceeded expectations, most recently coming off a win over Duquesne in Week 3. In its last road game though Hawaii lost by a TD to Army. Warriors’ QB Cole McDonald had five TD’s and one INT in Hawaii’s win over the Dukes. In the loss to Army though the Warriors gave up 303 rushing yards and four TD’s. San Jose State has been downright terrible, especially on the defensive side in conceding an average of 525.3 yards per game. Offensively it’s been decent. Last week QB Josh Love had 237 yards, one TD and two INT’s in the loss to Oregon. The Spartans will look to take advantage of a complacent Hawaii team, as note that the Warriors are a poor 6-20 ATS in their last 26 after passing for more then 450 total yards in its previous game and only 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games on the road against a team with a losing record at home. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to end a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Utah v. Washington State +1 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 105 h 19 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State 8* (6:00 EST). Utah played Washington two weeks ago and lost 21-7. It comes in off its bye and I think it’ll stumble here as well. Prior to the setback to the Huskies, the Utes managed just 17 points on the road against NIU. Utah turned the ball over three times in the loss to Washington. QB Tyler Huntley is averaging 6.3 yards per attempt with a 4/2 TD/INT. And that doesn’t bode well facing a Cougars defense which is allowing less than 160 yards passing per game so far this season. WSU QB Gardner Minshew already has 1,547 yards, 11 TD’s and just three INT’s over four games. The Cougars come in out gaining opposing teams by an average of 222.5 YPG. Note as well that WSU is 7-0 ATS in its last seven at home, while Utah is interestingly just 5-13 ATS in it last 18 after allowing less than 170 yards passing in its previous contest. Huntley looks horrible this year and I think he’ll struggle to keep up to this high-flying Mike Leach offense. Play on Washington State. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Nevada +7 v. Air Force | 28-25 | Win | 100 | 103 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Nevada 8* (4:00 EST). Nevada enters off a 66-43 road loss to Toledo, while Air Force most recently feel 42-32 at Utah State. Note that this is a revenge game for Nevada after it fell 45-42 at home to Air Force last year. The Wolfpack is averaging 40.8 PPG and it’s conceding 39.5. To a Taua was a bright spot in the loss to the Rockets last week, posting 170 rushing yards and three TD’s. Air Force is averaging 32.3 PPG and it’s allowing 25. QB Isaiah Sanders has already rushed the ball 44 times in two games. Last week the Falcons’ defense allowed 489 yards to Utah State. I’ll point out as well that Air Force is just 8-24 ATS in its last 32 following a SU loss, while Nevada is 4-0 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records. The Wolfpack passing game ranks 28th in the country, which doesn’t bode well for this struggling Falcons’ secondary. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Army v. Buffalo -8 | 42-13 | Loss | -115 | 99 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* Eye Opener is on Buffalo (12:00 EST). I’m expecting a blowout from start to finish, as I don’t think Army will be able to keep up with Buffalo’s high-flying offense. Army comes in dejected off a 28-21 setback in Oklahoma, while the Bulls come in off a confidence building 42-13 smash job on the road over Rutgers. Note that this is a revenge game as well for Buffalo after it fell 21-17 to the Black Knights last year. Army came up short in OT last week. The option went for 339 yards on 78 carries. QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr had just 40 yards and two INT’s, but he had 125 yards rushing and two TD’s on the ground. The defense was decent, allowing 335 yards to the Sooners. Army has averaged 25.2 PPG and it’s conceded 24.2 so far this season. Buffalo has averaged 40.2 PPG and it’s conceded just 20. The Bulls had 445 yards of offense last week, including 182 on the ground. Jaret Patterson had 104 yards with two TD’s. QB Tyree Jackson had 263 yards and three TD’s last week and overall the passing game is ranked 44th in the nation. I’ll point out as well that Buffalo is 7-1 ATS in its last eight at home, while Army is a poor 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS victory. I think Army has a letdown here after last week’s near upset. Look for Buffalo to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-28-18 | Braves -135 v. Phillies | Top | 10-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Atlanta Braves (7:05 EST). The Braves are waffling down the stretch and they just lost two of three to the Mets. I had the Mets in last night’s victory in New York as my underdog MONSTER. But I think Atlanta will bounce back in Philadelphia tonight with what I feel to be the far superior starter on the hill for it. The Braves turn to Mike Foltynewicz (12-10, 2.88 ERA) who hasn’t been perfect this season, but who is definitely putting together his best overall campaign of his career. Note that Foltynewicz has excelled on the road all year as well, going 7-6 with a 2.32 ERA. The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (0-0, 9.00) who returns to the rotation today and will make his first start of the season because of injuries. Atlanta is in a dog fight for home field advantage and after its lacklustre series in The Big Apple, I’m expecting the team to play with much more desperation this evening. Note that Foltynewicz has a 2.08 ERA in five starts against the Phillies this year and he’s 5-3 with a 3.39 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 career appearances against them. I love Foltynewicz in this spot, great value. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-27-18 | Vikings +7 v. Rams | Top | 31-38 | Push | 0 | 79 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Vikings (8:20 EST). Outright victory? Anything is possible. Just ask the Vikings, who were 17 points favorites at home over the lowly Bills last week and they’d end up falling 27-6. Minnesota handled a dangerous 49ers team 24-16 in Week 1 and then laid everything on the line in a 29-29 tie with Green Bay in Week 2. Clearly the Vikes were still hung over from that divisional battle and while there’s definitely some room for concern, I’m not going to over-react to one poor game. Minnesota has been the cream of the crop over the last two years, so I’m expecting an immediate return to competitive form on both sides of the ball here. The Rams are 3-0 to start the year and I think they come in complacent. Everything’s gone right for LA to this point, while the Vikes at 1-1-1 are not happy at all. In fact, another loss and Minnesota’s season will be on the line for all intents and purposes. There’s no question in my mind who this game means more too. Overall the Vikes are ranked 14th in the league in offense, while LA is ranked fifth (although those defensive numbers are skewed because of the shutout win over the Cardinals in the early going.) Last week the Rams allowed 300 yards passing, and note that Minnesota ranks sixth in the league in passing with 305.7 YPG. LA had three picks last week, but doing so again against Kirk Cousins will be much more difficult. LA has a strong one-two punch with QB Jared and RB Todd Gurley, but the Vikes’ strength on defense is against the run, allowing 84.8 YPG last season. The Vikes’ pass defense is strong as well, giving up just 237 yards to the Niners and only 253 to Aaron Rodgers, while also sacking him four times. Is it important that Minnesota is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the NFC West? It doesn’t hurt anyways. Also note that LA is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine after two or more consecutive SU wins. Grab the points, play on the Vikes. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-27-18 | Braves v. Mets +110 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 110 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG MONSTER is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). I had a play on the Mets last night and I think they offer great value in a minor upset role here as well. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (9-8, 4.03 ERA) who (like his team), has been waffling a bit down the stretch. He was 11-13 with a 4.49 ERA overall last year, so he’s made strides this season, but note that he’s still just 5-5 with a 4.63 ERA on the road. The home side hands the ball to Jason Vargas (6-9, 6.25) who for the most part has struggled this season. He was 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA while with KC last year. Vargas comes in off a decent outing against the Reds though and note that he’s been at his best at home with a somewhat respectable 4.38 ERA. Note as well that the Braves are a poor 21-23 (-2.7 units) against left-handed starters this year, while the Mets are surging to the finish line, so far 15-9 (+6.8 units) in the month of September. I think Teheran stumbles and I like the Mets to take advantage. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-26-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +104 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 104 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks 10* (9:40 EST). Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling (8-5, 2.84 ERA) who gave up three runs off four this over 3.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Sunday. Overall Stripling has been great and it’s difficult to find too many faults with the hard-throwing right-hander. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with Zack Greinke (14-11, 3.21) who comes in off a shaky start as well, giving up four runs off eight hits with two walks over seven innings in a loss to Houston on Sunday. Greinke has been grinding a bit down the stretch, but note that he’s consistently been at his best at home by going 6-4 with a 2.32 ERA. Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine National League night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +125 range. I look for Greinke to continue his strong play at home. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-26-18 | Braves v. Mets -153 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (7:10 EST). Atlanta might have the bigger offense, but this is mismatch on the mound which favors the him eside. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (12-9, 4.04 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off six hits over three innings in a loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Newcomb has now failed to complete five innings in three of his last four starts and I think his regression continues here. The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (9-9, 1.77) who continues to put up Cy Young like numbers and efforts almost every time he takes the mound. DeGrom looks to close out the season strong and take advantage of this favorable situation, as note that he has a minuscule 1.66 ERA in front of the home town crowd. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Newcomb is in for another long night at the end of the season here. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-26-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -102 | 2-1 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
This is an 8* play on the St. Louis Cardinals. I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The Brewers’ Jhoulys Chacin (14-8, 3.61 ERA) has been fantastic overall this year, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight (owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all night games.) The home side counties with John Gant (7-6, 3.53) who for the most part has also been better than the the Cards were likely hoping for this season. Gant now looks to close strong and improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.46 ERA in all night contests. I’ll point out as well that despite being 90-67 (+17.5 units) overall, the Brewers are still just 37-38 (-4.2 units) this season against the division. The Cardinals are 87-70 (+5.3 units) overall, except they’re a sharp 40-31 (+4.8 units) against the division. I’m banking on Gant getting the better of Chacin. Play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-25-18 | Padres +111 v. Giants | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Diego Padres (10:15 EST). I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the visiting underdog. The Padres hand the ball to Robbie Erlin (4-7, 4.33 ERA), who for the most part has thrown out of the bullpen this year. Erlin’s been better at home than on the road, but no matter where he’s been he’s been sharp in all “night” games, as evidenced by his 3.55 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Chris Stratton (10-10, 4.88) who comes in off back-to-back poor outings. Stratton has been downright pedestrian in this position all season by going 8-9 with a 4.94 ERA in all “night” games. I’ll point out as well that San Diego is a sharp 11-4 in its last 15 National League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +125 range. I’m banking on Erlin getting the better of the inconsistent Stratton. Play on the Padres. Good luck..Larry |
|||||||
09-25-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -115 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (9-11, 4.28 ERA) who has been hit or miss for his new club. Overall Gonzalez has struggled to re-gain his 2017 form and note that he’s been especially poor on the road by going 3-7 with a 4.93 ERA. The home side counters with Austin Gomber (6-1, 3.63) who after getting rocked for seven runs against the Dodgers, bounced back with a strong effort against the Braves on Tuesday. He hasn’t been perfect, but the rookie’s been sharp at home with a 3-1, 3.93 ERA. Note as well that the Cards are 10-5 in their last 15 National League home games when the line in the game is set between +125 and -125. I think Gomber is the correct call and there’s no doubt that the price is right. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-25-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -140 | 6-0 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chris Archer (5-8, 4.49 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” for his new team. He comes in off a decent outing against the lowly Royals, but note that he’s just 4-6 with a 4.91 ERA in road games. The Cubs’ Mike Montgomery (5-5, 3.75) has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Overall he’s been solid though, especially in this spot where he’s posted a sharp 3.32 ERA in all night games. I’ll point out as well that the Cubs are 7-2 in their last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. I’m banking on Montgomery continuing his steady play at home, while all signs point to further regression for Archer. Lay the price, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-24-18 | Padres v. Giants -130 | 5-0 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 27 m | Show | |
The second play of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants 8* (10:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Bryan Mitchell (1-4, 6.16 ERA) who for the most part has been an absolute disaster this year. Note that he’s been especially terrible in all night games as well with a 1-3, 6.03 ERA record to this point. The home side counters with Derek Holland (7-8, 3.57 ERA) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who is a sharp 4-3 with a 3.31 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often recent form is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Holland suggests to me that he could in fact be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. Great value on the Giants. Good luck..Larry |
|||||||
09-24-18 | A's v. Mariners -120 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners 10* (10:10 EST). Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Daniel Mengden (7-6, 4.00 ERA) who has primarily been used in relief over the second half. He’s looked decent of late, but note that he owns a poor 5.04 ERA on the road. The home side counters with James Paxton (11-6, 3.83) who returns from a short stint on the DL from flu like symptoms. The big southpaw hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s poised to close out strong, note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot as well this season by going 5-4 with a 3.13 ERA at home. I’m banking on Paxton continuing his strong performances in front of the home town crowd, while I expect Mengden to struggle on the short notice.. Play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-24-18 | Steelers v. Bucs | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 32 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Everything has gone right for Tampa to this point, while everything has gone wrong to Pittsburgh in the early going. Despite that being true to this point, I think the now desperate Steelers behind their Hall Of Fame QB will find a way to get the job done here. And that’s because it’s virtually impossible to even make the Playoffs, let alone contend for the Super Bowl after starting the year 0-3. The Steelers gave up 21 points to the Browns in Week 1’s tie, but it allowed 42 points in the blowout loss to the Chiefs in Week 2. Pittsburgh’s defense has long been a strength of the team, but clearly those days are in the rear view mirror. Still, the unit does have talent and I don’t think it’s nearly as horrible as what it showed in the loss to the Chiefs. Tampa’s Ryan Fitzpatrick has completed almost 80 percent of his passes over the first two game salong with an 8/1 TD/INT ratio. The Bucs have caught their first two opponents “off guard,” but I don’t think that’s going to be the case here today against a hyper-focused Steelers unit which will be playing with a chip on its shoulder after last week’s embarrassing performance. The Steelers are desperate and they’ll be leaving everything they have on the field of play today to try and secure their first win of the season. Pittsburgh is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a road favorite of three points or less, while TB is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less. Play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-24-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -135 | 6-4 | Loss | -135 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
The first play of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (8:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (9-8, 3.93 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with two walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Reds on Tuesday. He’d give up four extra-base hits in his short stint on the hill and it was the fourth time in his last eight starts that he’s not made it through five innings of work. The home side counters with Joe Flaherty (8-8, 3.08) who hasn’t been perfect this year, but who has been extremely consistent in this spot by posting a tiny 2.54 ERA in all home contests. Recent form displayed by Anderson suggests that he’s getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers on the road in my opinion. Look for Flaherty to take advantage. Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions +7 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 151 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Detroit Lions (8:20 EST). An outright victory? I wouldn’t be shocked. In the end though I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. New England is ripe for the picking in my opinion after it’s listless 31-20 road loss at Jacksonville last week. And the Lions will be looking to take advantage, they come in desperate at 0-2 after falling 30-27 in San Francisco last weekend. Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 234 yards and two TD’s last week. So far he has a 5/1 TD/INT and 511 yards passing after two games. Rookie RB Sony Michel made his debut last week and he had 34 yards on ten carries. TE Rob Gronkowski had just two catches for 15 yards. So far the offense is averaging just 23.5 PPG, ranked 16th. The defense is allowing 25.5, ranked 20th. Note that offensive standout Julian Edelman will not be in this one once again, as he is still serving his four game suspension. New England’s defense looked especially poor last week though, giving up 481 total yards and four passing TD’s to Blake Bortles and a pretty mediocre Jags’ offense. Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 347 yards and three TD’s in last week’s loss. So far though he has a poor 4/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Golden Tate was a bright spot in a losing cause as he had 109 receiving yards in the setback. So far Detroit’s offense has averaged 22 points, while the defense has conceded 39 PPG. That’s last in the NFL by a long shot, but with their season on the line, I think the Lions put it all together today with their best effort yet. Brady is an amazing talent, but his offense is in shambles. So is his offensive line and his defense has more questions than answers. Detroit’s new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat and with another loss the Lions can already start looking ahead to next season. I’ll point out as well that the Pats are in fact a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight road games against a team with a losing home record. Detroit’s pass defense has been its strength on that side of the ball, allowing an average of just 168 per contest. New England is very one-dimensional with Brady obviously. As mentioned off the top, I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, but in the end I’m going to grab the points. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -102 | 2-0 | Loss | -102 | 22 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (15-7, 2.95 ERA) who is putting together his best campaign ever. Last year he was 11-11 with a 4.10 ERA. He’s been rock solid across the board and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about him, so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place in the wrong time in this one. And that’s because the Diamondbacks’ Zack Godley (14-10, 4.79) has been at his best at home this year, going 6-4 with a very respectable 3.74 ERA. I’ll point out additionally that the Diamondbacks are 13-8 in their last 21 National League afternoon home games in which the line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. I’m banking on Freeland finally faltering and for Godley to deliver the goods on his home field. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Brewers -119 v. Pirates | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 26 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1:35 EST). Joe Musgrove has been decent for the Pirates this year, but the Brewers’ Wade Miley has been fantastic and I think he’s going to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Miley (5-2, 2.08 ERA) has made the most of his time this season and he’ll now look to close strong. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 2.14 ERA on the road. Musgrove (6-9, 4.06) most recently was rocked for five runs off eight hits while striking out four over six innings against Kansas City on Monday. Over 18.1 innings in September he’s now given up 11 runs. Note that Musgrove is just 4-5 with a 4.51 ERA at home as well this year. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Musgrove suggests that the Pirates are in fact getting way too much respect in this matchup. I look for Miley to continue his strong end to the season. Lay the price. NOTE: There’s been a pitching change for the Pirates and Musgrove is out and Kingham is in. This play is STILL ACTIVE. Kingham (5-6, 4.69 ERA) has been serviceable in his rookie year, but clearly this is a difficult spot start. I think he’ll predictably stumble. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Bengals +3 v. Panthers | 21-31 | Loss | -108 | 144 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). Cincinnati comes in off a confidence building 34-23 home win over Baltimore last week and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. Carolina comes home off a deflating 31-24 road loss in Atlanta. Bengals’ QB Andy Dalton had 265 passing yards with four TD’s. Dalton so far has 508 yards and a 6/1 TD/INT ratio. RB Joe Mixon has been lost to injury, meaning that veteran RB Giovani Bernard is “the next man up.” AJ Green had a monster game last week and so far the offense has posted 34 points in each of its first two victories. The Bengals’ rush defense is ranked fourth in the league after two weeks, as Geno Atkins already has three sacks. Overall Cincinnati has given up an average of 23 PPG early. Cam Newton had 335 passing yards with three TD’s for the Pantehrs last week and so far he has a 4/1 TD/INT ratio. Newton has plenty of weapons to utilize, but TE Greg Olsen remains out with injury. Carolina has relied on its run game early, which doesn’t bode well facing the Bengals’ tough run unit. So far Carolina has averaged 20 PPG and conceded 19.5. I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 10-8 ATS in its last 18 as an underdog, while Carolina is just 8-11 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and as such, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans OVER 41 | Top | 27-22 | Win | 100 | 144 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Giants/Texans (1:00 EST). I’m expecting these two under-achieving and desperate/hungry NFL teams to open up the playbook and put some points on the board this afternoon. New York enters off a 20-10 road loss to Dallas, while Houston lost 20-17 at Tennessee. The Giants are desperate here, as it’s virtually impossible to even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards last week, but he was sacked six times. New York has to open up the playbook today, it does not have the luxury of sitting back and hoping that things will start to click (averaging just 14 PPG over the first two, ranked 30th overall.) The New York defense has been a bright spot, but the unit faces an equally as hungry 0-2 Texans team today that’s out to make a statement in front of the home town crowd. QB DeShaun Watson had 310 passing yards in last weeks setback, with two TD’s and an INT. The Texans have also looked decent defensively in the early going, conceding 23.5 PPG. Admittedly these are two teams which do not play to many “overs,” but the overall “situation” that each finds itself in coming into this one points to more of a wide-open “shootout,” than a ground-and-pound “chess match” in my opinion. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Raiders +3 v. Dolphins | 20-28 | Loss | -100 | 144 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (1:00 EST). I don’t like either of these teams particularly, but I think the Dolphins are getting the job done right now with smoke and mirrors and I look for the hungry visiting side to keep it close. Oakland comes in off a tough 20-19 setback to Denver on the road, while Miami comes home contented off its 20-12 road win over the hapless Jets. The Raiders beat the Fish 27-24 in Hard Rock Stadium last year and I think a similarly hard fought battle is in the cards here as well. Oakland was blown out by the Rams in Week 1, but it looked a lot better in Week 2, despite the losing effort. It’s all or nothing though for the Raiders in Week 3, as virtually no team can even make the playoffs after starting the season 0-3. Raiders’ QB Derek Carr had 298 yards and a TD, but it wasn’t quite enough last week. But I do think it will be enough this week against a complacent 2-0 Miami team. This sets up as a classic “trap” game early in the season for the Dolphins and I think they’re going to fall right in. Note that Miami is a terrible 16-45-3 ATS in its last 64 home games against teams with losing road records, while Oakland is a solid 4-1-2 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. The Dolphins have struggled against the pass this year, so the door is open for Carr to shine and deliver the goods in this crucial situation. While I wouldn’t be shocked by the outright win obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on the Raiders. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Packers v. Redskins +3 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 144 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the Washington Redskins (1:00 EST). Green Bay comes in off a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Minnesota at home and now has to contend with a desperate Redskins team which enters off a 21-9 home loss to Indianapolis. Washington is ranked tops in the league against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for injured QB Aaron Rodgers. Rodgers has been superb in the early going, but one has to question the veterans health early, as he wore a brace in the match-up with the Vikes last weekend. Overall the Packers are averaging 26.5 PPG and allowing 26. The Redskins are averaging 16.5 PPG and they’re allowing 13.0. Alex Smith had 292 yards through the air last week in a losing cause, but he now gets to face a Packers’ secondary which allowed Minnesota to throw for over 400 yards. Washington’s numbers are skewed. While averaging only 16.5 PPG, note that they’re still ranked 12th in total offense, including 14th in passing and 8th in rushing. The numbers don’t add up and I think we’ll see a massive correction here for the under-achieving Redskins. With the Bills at home next week, look for Rodgers and company to fold up their tents early in the Nation’s capital on Sunday afternoon. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Wisconsin v. Iowa +3.5 | 28-17 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT is on Iowa (8:30 EST). Wisconsin comes in off a stunning loss to BYU and I think it’s ripe for the picking here as well. The Badgers fell 12 spots in the AP Top 25 after a 24-21 upset loss to BYU at home last weekend. Johnathan Taylor was a standout with 117 rushing yards, but overall the team went just 4 of 13 on third down. QB Alex Hornibrook had 190 passing yards, but he also had a costly INT which the Cougars turned into a TD. Iowa comes in confident sitting at 3-0 after hammering Northern Iowa 38-14 last Saturday. The Hawkeyes gave up the two TD’s in the final ten minutes of garbage time as well. QB Nate Stanley was 23 of 28 for 302 yards and two scores, while Mekhi Sargen had two TD’s while rushing for 72 on the ground. Overall Iowa would finish with 545 yards of offense. I’ll point out as well that Wisconsin is interestingly just 4-9-1 ATS in its last 14 after gaining more than 200 rushing yards in its previous game, while Iowa is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. This is a big time revenge game for the Hawkeyes as well, who have lost five of the last six in the series, including the last three at home by a combined 11 points. Iowa catches Wisconsin at the most opportune of times. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Mariners v. Rangers -105 | 13-0 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My 9* Late-Breaking Play is on the Tex Rangers at 8:05 ET. The Texas Rangers fired manager Jeff Banister and named bench coach Don Wakamatsu interim manager. His first game at the helm was Friday night's opener of a three-game series against the Seattle Mariners, a team he managed back in 2009-10 before being fired. Adrian Beltre homered (his 476th, which makes him 30th all-time in HRs) and registered a season-best five RBI as Texas posted an 8-3 victory in a game halted in the seventh inning due to rain. The Rangers were maybe just due for a good game, after losing four straight games and 16 of their past 22. The 84-69 Mariners are 19 games better than the 65-88 Rangers but with just nine games left to their 2018 season, are 8 1/2 games back of the A's for the final wild card spot. A pair of lefties will square off on Saturday night, Marco Gonzales (12-9, 4.28 ERA) for Seattle and Mike Minor (12-7, 4.14 ERA) for the Rangers. The two come in headed in different directions. Gonzales has gone without a decision in back-to-back starts since returning from a neck injury plus he had lost four consecutive starts before going on the disabled list, posting a ghastly 10.35 ERA during that stretch. Gonzales takes the mound with Seattle having lost his last six starts (minus-$847 vs the moneyline) and with a 2-1 (5.40 ERA) record in three career meetings with Seattle. In direct contrast to Gonzales, Minor has won six of his last seven decisions and allowed two runs or less in EIGHT of his nine starts since the All Star break (2.72 ERA in that span). The 30-year-old has performed well at home this season, going 6-3 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 14 starts. A small concern for Texas is that Minor is 0-1 with a 7.24 ERA in three starts against Seattle this year and 1-2 with a 4.74 ERA in seven career appearances (four starts). However, I LOVE the way he's pitched since the break plus Gonzales has 'hit a wall' since the start of August (see above for a reminder). Wakamatsu should 'enjoy' being on the field when the team that fired him years ago gets officially eliminated from the 2018 postseason. Texas is a 9*. Good luck...Larry |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Stanford v. Oregon +2.5 | Top | 38-31 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE YEAR is on Oregon (8:00 EST). Stanford comes to the Pacific Northwest off a 30-10 home win over UC Davis, while Oregon comes in off a tougher than expected 35-22 home victory over San Jose State. Note that this is a revenge game for the Ducks after they were smoked 49-7 by the Cardinal last year. Stanford QB KJ Costello had two TD’s but also two INT’s last week. So far he has 729 passing yards and a 7/3 TD/INT ratio. The Cardinal have looked very strong defensively so far, allowing an average of just 7.7 points over the first three games. However, there’s no question that Stanford faces its stiffest test yet. Oregon is also 3-0. So far the Ducks have scored an average of 52 PPG, good for eighth in the country. The defense has been the weak point, but it’s still been pretty good, allowing an average of 20 PPG over the first three. Stanford features an elite defense, but I think that unit will be on its heels all afternoon long. The Ducks come in with a chip on their shoulder and I look for their combination of high-flying offensive firepower and above average defensive play to be just too much for satisfied Stanford to keep up to down the stretch. Play on Oregon. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Red Sox v. Indians -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). I don’t think that that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello (17-7, 4.30 ERA) and he’s enjoyed a resurgent season overall in 2018, but if he’s had one weakness it’s been his play in all “night” games, coming in with the the poor 4.91 ERA in such instances. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (12-8, 3.06) who hasn’t been perfect this year, but who continues to put up a consistent effort almost every time he takes the mound. Clevinger has to be feeling confident here as he’s 7-3 with a 3.12 ERA at home (and owns a respectable 3.46 ERA in all night games.) I think the Clevinger gets the better of his senior counterpart. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Western Kentucky +3 v. Ball State | 28-20 | Win | 100 | 121 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Western Kentucky (3:00 EST). Western Kentucky will be desperate to get off the schneid today after starting the season with losses to Wisconsin, Maine and Louisville. Ball State is the perfect opponent to get untracked against as it comes in struggling as well with consecutive setbacks to Notre Dame and Indiana. WKU looked a lot better against the Cardinals last week though and I think it can carry that all around momentum over into this one. QB Davis Shanley threw for 240 yards and a TD in a losing cause last week, and he also ran in for a score as well after coming in off the bench. He’s the “X factor” in this play for me and I look for him to be a big time difference maker this afternoon. After an “oh-so-close” 24-16 setback at Notre Dame on September 8th, the Cardinals came back down to Earth in a 38-10 loss at Indiana last Saturday. QB Riley Neal was 12 of 24 for 115 yards and overall the Cardinals committed eight penalties for 75 yards. I’ll point out that WKU is 3-0 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses, while Ball State is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 in the same position. While the outright win is obviously not out of the question, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in the end. Play on WKU. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Boston College -6.5 v. Purdue | Top | 13-30 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (12:00 EST). I had a big play on Purdue last week (my 35-Club Play signature release), but this weekend I’m going against the winless Boilermakers. Purdue has lost its three games by a combined eight points. I have a hard time seeing the Boilermakers keeping up to the Eagles though, who have averaged 52.7 PPG in the early going. The BC defense has been sharp as well, holding the opposition to just 340.7 yards per game average. Boston College’ QB Anthony Brown has 626 yards, nine TD’s and zero INT’s so far. WR Kobay White has 163 yards receiving and RB AJ Dillon has 432 rushing yards and five TD’s. Dillon had 185 yards on 33 carries against Wake Forest. Purdue is scoring an average of 27.7 PPG. QB David Blough was 39 of 55 for 572 yards, three TD’s and an INT in last week’s tight setback. Note though that the Boilermakers are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games against teams with a winning road record, while BC is 7-1-1 ATS in its last eight nine after a SU victory. I love BC to kick Purdue while it’s down. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest +8 | 56-27 | Loss | -106 | 118 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wake Forest (12:00 EST). Notre Dame has beaten Michigan, Ball State and Vanderbilt and each game has been close (24-17, 24-6 and 22-17.) Wake Forest started the year 2-0, but it comes in hungry to return to form off a loss to Boston College last Saturday. Notre Dame beat Vandy despite getting out-gained 420 yards to 380 last week. Wake Forest has been no “push over” early, scoring 23, 51 and 34 points so far, most recently coming out on the short-end of last week’s 41-34 shootout loss to BC. The Demon Deacons though posted 298 yards on the ground, including 117 from Matt Colburn. QB Sam Hartman already has 834 yards and six TD’s (although he also has five picks.) Overall the offensive line has given up just five total sacks this year as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Wake Forest is 7-3 ATS in its last ten against Independents and 4-1 ATS its last five at home against teams with winning road records, while Notre Dame is 0-5 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. I can’t see the Fighting Irish’ offense pulling away from the talented Demon Deacons. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Washington State +3.5 v. USC | Top | 36-39 | Win | 100 | 106 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* CFB GAME OF THE WEEK is on Washington State (10:30 EST). Washington State comes into this Friday night contest on top form, still unbeaten after destroying Easter Washington 59-24 at home Saturday. USC comes in deflated after losing its second straight, most recently a listless 37-14 setback on the road in Texas. The Cougars will be feeling confident here as well, because when these teams played last year on September 29th, it was WSU which left with the 30-27 home win. So far Washington State is second in the nation in passing with 421 yards per game. Overall the team is averaging 43.7 PPG and conceding just 14.3. QB Gardnew Minshew already had 1,203 yards with eight TD’s and three INT’s. He also has 30 rushing yards another score on the ground. James Williams has 137 yards on the ground and four TD’s. The Trojans are averaging just 274 yards per game and just 20 PPG scoring average, which is ranked 114th. The defense hasn’t been great either, conceding 25 PPG. QB JT Daniels has 817 yards, one TD and three INT’s. I’ll point out that the Trojans are 0-3-1 ATS in their last four conference games, while the Cougars are 4-0 ATS in their last four after scoring 40 or more points in their previous contest. I have a hard time seeing USC slowing down the Cougars’ high-flying offense. Washington State has proven to be extremely tough defensively in the early going as well. Grab the point, play on the Cougars. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Rockies +115 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-2 | Win | 115 | 30 h 2 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies 10* (9:40 EST). Whether Zack Godley or Zack Greinke throws for Arizona in this one, I like German Marquez in this spot for sure (note that whether it’s Godley or Greinke going, I like Marquez in this one. This play is based entirely around the fact that the Rockies are starting Marquez.) Marquez (12-10, 3.96 ERA) has been on fire of late, and he’s been especially tough on the road (5-6 with a 5.14 ERA at Coors Field and 7-4 with a 2.74 ERA away from friendly confines.) The in-decision of who is actually going to get the start here for the home side only strengthens this play. I’m banking on Marquez continuing his strong end of season form, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Giants v. Cardinals -150 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (8:15 EST). I don’t think that that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (6-6, 3.14 ERA) who was lifted from his last start for precautionary measures with side issues. He’s been given the green light here, but note that while the veteran is a “lights out” 4-2 with a 1.34 ERA at home, he’s just 2-4 with a 5.42 ERA on the road. The home side counters with John Gant (7-6, 3.53) who continues to throw consistently down the stretch, having allowed two earned runs or less in each of his last seven trips to the hill. Note that Gant owns a respectable 3.54 ERA at home so far, along with an elite 2.33 ERA in all night games. An injured Bumgarner on the road? I’ll take Gant and the hard-hitting home side for what I think is a very reasonable mid-sized price. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-21-18 | Mets -145 v. Nationals | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (7:05 EST). I think this line could easily be a lot larger considering the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight. The Nationals’ Joe Ross has actually looked decent in two straight no-decisions in his first action since July 2017, but Mets’ ace Jacob deGrom has been on an entirely different level all year, easily posting Cy Young worthy numbers to this point. deGrom (8-9, 1.78 ERA) continues to throw at an elite level every night and note that he’s 5-3 with a 1.91 ERA on the road. Ross (0-0, 3.60) will be given every opportunity as the season winds down, but I think he’s in well over his head in this spot. I look for deGrom to out-distance his still un-proven counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns -3 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 80 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Browns (8:20 EST). New York won its season opener against Detroit, but it fell apart in last week’s loss to Miami. Cleveland lost its opener against the Steelers (a game it should have won), before then giving the Saints everything they could handle in Week 2. Ultimately though I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. New York QB Sam Darnold had 334 yards against the Dolphins last week. Drew Brees struggled against the Browns’ re-worked defense and I think Darnold will have a difficult time here as well in this unfriendly road venue. The Browns forced six turnovers against Pittsburgh in their opener as well, including three INT’s. Cleveland QB Tyrod Taylor has looked decent under difficult circumstances so far and I don’t think that there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t continue his progression here as well. I’ll point out as well that the Jets are just 3-6 ATS in their last nine following a divisional contest. I think the short week does Cleveland a favor in Week 3. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Phillies v. Braves -147 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show | |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (9-11, 4.50 ERA) who comes in off consecutive poor outings, most recently against the Marlins on Saturday. The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (10-10, 3.92) who also comes in off consecutive “ho hum” performances, most recently against the Nationals on Friday. Overall though Gausman’s been sharp for his new club, and note that he’s been at this best in all home situations so far this year with a very respectable 8-6, 3.74 ERA in such instances. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is a horrible 31-37 (-13.4 units) against the division this season, while Atlanta is 43-22 (+23 units) in the same position. All things considered, I feel this is a very fair price. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-20-18 | Tulsa +7.5 v. Temple | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Tulsa (7:30 EST). I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I do think that the table is set for a a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in primed for a letdown after its first win of the season, a massive 35-14 upset on the road over Maryland. Note that this is a revenge game for Tulsa after the Owls took the latest match-up 43-22 on November 25th, 2017. Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and conceding 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards with four TD’s and three INT’s on the year. Temple is averaging 27 PPG and it’s conceding 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s so far, while Anthony Russo has 252 yards and a TD on the season. I’ll point out though that Tulsa is 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while Temple is already 0-2 ATS this season as a favorite. I think Temple has a classic letdown here after its big upset on the road. Well, enough of one anyways to let the Golden Hurricane to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the sizeable spread that they’ve been afforded. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -104 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks 10* (9:40 EST). Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the all to Cole Hamels (9-9, 3.67 ERA) who has been unbelievable for Chicago since coming over from the Rangers almost two months ago. Hamels has been great, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one though. The home side counters with Robbie Ray (5-2, 4.14) who after a shaky first half (marred by injury), has looked a lot better in the second. Ray has to be feeling confident here as as well, as note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.56 ERA in all night contests this season. Additionally note that the Diamondbacks are 7-2 in their last nine National League home games as a favorite in the -105 to -125 range. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-19-18 | Giants v. Padres -125 | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres 8* (9:10 EST). I don’t think that that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Chris Stratton (10-9, 4.66 ERA) who has struggled down the stretch for the most part and who has consistently been at his worst on the road by going just 4-6 with a 5.03 ERA. The home side counters with Robbie Erlin (3-7, 4.27) who has thrown mostly out of the bullpen this year. Erlin hasn’t been perfect whatsoever this season, but he’s without question been at his best in front of the home town crowd (as his 2.60 ERA will attest too.) I’m banking on Erlin’s strong home play continuing here and I look for him to easily get the better of the “gas can” Stratton. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-19-18 | Mets -125 v. Phillies | 0-4 | Loss | -125 | 26 h 48 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets 8* (6:05 EST). For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Mets’ starter Noah Syndergaard suggests that he’s probably being severely undervalued in this matchup. Syndergaard (12-3, 3.26 ERA) most recently went seven scoreless and struck out six in a win over the Red Sox in Boston on Friday. While he’s 7-1 at home and 5-2 on the road, note that his ERA stands at 3.55 in friendly confines and 2.99 away. The home side counters with the volatile Zach Eflin (10-7, 4.26) who after an unreal and unsustainable first half, has predictably coming crashing back down to Earth in the second. Eflin has shown me nothing of late to suggest that he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” here. Syndergaard though is clearly rounding into form as the season closes. I’m banking on that trend continuing. Lay the price, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-19-18 | Cardinals -104 v. Braves | 3-7 | Loss | -104 | 20 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (12:10 EST). In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of great line value. Sure the Braves are playing at home, but Joe Flaherty has a major advantage over his inconsistent counterpart. Flaherty (8-7, 2.86 ERA) most recently gave up one run while striking out eight over six innings in what turned out to be a loss to the Dodgers on Friday. Clearly he threw well enough for the victory, but he’d unfortunately not receive enough support. Despite the hard-luck setback, the right-hander has still not allowed more than three earned runs in a start since July 31st. Note as well that he’s a “lights out” 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with Touki Toussaint (1-1, 4.67) who has almost as many walks (13) as he does K’s (15) in the majors. The sky in fact could be the limit for Toussaint, but I think he’s completely overmatched in this one. I like the opportunistic Cards’ line-up to give Flaherty some support this time around. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-18-18 | Mariners +207 v. Astros | 0-7 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST). I think that Mike Leake and the dangerous Mariners have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Leake (10-9, 3.99 ERA) comes in off consecutive strong outings, most recently against the Padres. The veteran has been solid across the board, including on the road with a 6-4, 3.99 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Gerritt Cole (14-5, 2.88) who gave up two runs off three hits over five innings in a win over Detroit last week. Cole’s been fantastic, I simply feel that Leake can match him inning for inning in this one. And in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the undervalued underdog. Play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-18-18 | Cardinals v. Braves -140 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -140 | 27 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. I also think “recent form” will play a big part in the final outcome as well. The visitors hand the ball to rookie Austin Gomber (5-1, 3.78 ERA) who most recently gave up seven earned runs off nine hits while striking out three over three innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Thursday. The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 3.01) who most recently gave up one run off shix hits over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Giants on Wednesday. Sanchez sports the sharp ERA along with 1.12 WHIP and note that he’s 4-3 with a 3.27 ERA in all night games this year. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Gomber suggests that youngster could be running out of gas. I’m banking on Sanchez taking advantage. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-18-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees -135 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi (5-7, 4.22 ERA) who returns to the starting rotation out of necessity. Eovaldi most recently pitched 3.2 innings after Chris Sale exited his last start early and he looked decent. But overall he’s been a disappointment, especially on the road where he’s a terrible 2-6 with 5.88 ERA. The home side counters with JA Happ (16-6, 3.75 ERA) who hasn’t been perfect since coming in a trade from Toronto about a month, but damn near it. Happ has to be feeling confident today, as note that he already has a 47:12 K/BB over 46.2 innings for the Yanks. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Eovaldi on the road suggests he’s getting far too much respect here in my opinion. Play on the Yankees. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -135 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (11-7, 4.80 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s 6-3 with a 4.78 ERA at Coors Field and only 5-4 with a 5.91 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (4-3, 2.42) who comes in off a loss against Cincinnati on Tuesday, allowing three runs off five hits over five innings. Ryu looks to regain his form after returning from injury in mid August, but a date at home is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that he’s so far an elite 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA. I think Gray’s road inconsistencies come back to haunt him here and I look for Ryu to take advantage and to get back on track with a convincing performance in this favorable situation. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears OVER 43 | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the over Hawks/Bears (8:15 EST). Neither team can sit back and hope the other one makes the first mistake. Neither can afford that luxury as each comes in desperate after starting the season 0-1. The Seahawks are going to have to open up the playbook today after losing WR Doug Baldwin to injury in last week’s 27-24 setback at Denver. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards on seven carries, while TE Will Dissly had three catches for 105 yards and a TD. Seattle QB Russell Wilson had a decent game with 298 yards, three TD’s, but also two INT’s. The Bears couldn’t hold on in Green Bay in Week 1, falling 24-23 in the end (after having a 24-6 halftime lead.) Chicago won’t be making that same mistake twice though as I expect the Bears’ offense to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. QB Mitchell Trubisky had 171 yards, while also running for 32 yards and a TD. The Bears looked great defensively in the first half (when QB Aaron Rodgers was sidelined with injury), but the unit didn’t look especially impressive in the second and in the eventual collapse. I’ll point out as well that the Seahawks have seen the total go over the number in on their last two Monday Night Football games, while the Bears have seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of their last eight following a divisional contest. This one has all the makings of a wide-open shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-17-18 | Mets v. Phillies -110 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* BLOWOUT GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). As awesome as Zack Wheeler has been over the last two months, he still plays for the Mets. I think Wheeler and the Phillies Jake Arrieta battle into the latter frames, but I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Wheeler (11-7, 3.23 ERA) just went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday. He now owns a 1.13 WHIP and clearly it’s difficult to say anything negative about Wheeler, I simply feel that he’s finally in the wrong place at the wrong time on Monday. And that’s because Arrieta (10-9, 3.66 has a sharp 3.30 ERA at home and an an even better 3.10 ERA in all night games. As I said, I think these pitchers are very evenly matched, but Wheeler plays for an offensively challenged club and I believe that fact will finally catch up to him here. Great value, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* NFC EAST TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the under Giants/Cowboys (8:20 EST). The Giants lost 20-15 at home to the Jaguars in Week 1, while the Cowboys fell 16-8 at Carolina. These two division rivals come into Week 2 desperate for a victory, as 90% of teams which have started 0-2 in the NFL over the last 30 years have failed to make the playoffs. Giants’ rookie RB Saquon Barkley had 106 yards and a TD last week. QB Eli Manning though was ineffective, going for 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. As mediocre as the New York offense looked though, was as decent as the defense performed, limiting the Jags to just 305 total yards of offense. Keep your eyes on Janoris Jenkins, who led the team in tackles and had an INT as well. Dallas’ QB Dak Prescott was 19 of 29 for 17 yards, while also losing a fumble in Week 1. In all Prescott was sacked six times. Note that dating back to last year Prescott has thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games. RB Ezekiel Elliot can’t do it by himself, as the Dallas offense has now turned completely one-dimensional. Note that the Giants have seen the total go under the number in 17 of their last 23 as an underdog, while the Cowboys have seen the total go under in 13 of their last 20 as the favorite. This number is a little bit high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Dodgers -135 v. Cardinals | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -135 | 28 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the LA Dodgers (8:05 EST). I’ve played on the Dodgers on each of the last two days (both victories of the “rocking chair” variety) and I believe they’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. LA hands the ball to the steady Ross Stripling (8-3, 2.61 ERA) who returns to the starting line-up with a 1.12 WHIP and 108/12 K/W over 18 outings (98 innings) this season. Note that Stripling owns a 2.56 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile Adam Wainwright (1-3, 4.70) who returned from the DL on Monday to face the Pirates to give up four runs off seven hits over five innings in the eventual loss. To go along with his horrible ERA, Wainwright also sports a poor 1.74 WHIP. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly asses a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Wainwright suggests that he’s in way over his head here against the red hot Stripling. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Patriots v. Jaguars OVER 45 | Top | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 127 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is on the over Pats/Jags (4:25 EST). Both teams come in off victories and each of those contests went “under” the number. Jacksonville has one of the most talented defenses in the league and New England’s unit isn’t far behind. All of that said though, I think that the visitors are going to push the pace of this one from the outset in an attempt to get the home side out of its comfort zone and in the end, I look for this total to sneak above this fairly low number once it’s all said and done. Pats’ QB Tom Brady had 277 yards and three TD’s last week. The defense looked sharp at home, but it’ll have a more difficult time this week I think in trying to slow down the combination of Leonard Fournette (or TJ Yeldon if Fournette can’t go. Yeldon had 69 yards last week), and Blake Bortles. Bortles had 176 yards, a TD and an INT in his team’s 20-15 road win over the Giants. I’ll point out as well that despite being considered one of the best defensive clubs in the league, the Jags have seen the total go over the number in three of their last four as a home dog of three points or less and in nine of their last 15 in front of the home town crowd overall. This is a big time revenge game for the Jags. They’ve lost 11 of 12 in the all time series, including a 24-20 setback in the AFC title game in January. The Jags need to take the fight to the Pats today. This one has the feel of a “shootout” to me. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Colts +6 v. Redskins | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 123 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Indianapolis Colts (1:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, in a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab as many points as I can. The Colts come in off a 34-23 home loss to Cincinnati and they are the “hungrier” side here, as Washington returns home complacent after its 24-6 road win against Arizona. Indianapolis looked good for three quarters last week, but in the fourth it would give up 14 points. QB Andrew Luck looked decent though, going for 319 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall the Colts looked good offensively against a solid defensive club. Indianapolis was also decent defensively, as one of the Bengals’ TD came via the defense. Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD’s for the Redskins last week. Adrian Peterson had 96 yards rushing and overall the unit posted 182 on the ground. Washington looked sharp defensively in holding Arizona to just 213 total yards, but the unit clearly faces a much stiffer test against Luck, Ty Hilton and company. I think the Colts’ more competent passing game brings Washington’s defensive numbers back down to Earth. Indianapolis played well enough to win last week, but shot itself in the foot with costly turnovers and penalties. Look for a less rusty Luck to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Play on the Colts. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Divisional match-ups are always the most important in the NFL and for the most part, it almost always means more to the home side. And there’s no question that that’s the case today, as Carolina comes in at 1-0, while Atlanta is 0-1. The Panthers came out on top of the Cowboys 16-8 last week, forcing Dallas to go 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. The Dallas offense though is still trying to find itself, while the Atlanta offense is a well-oiled machine. And that machine mis-fired in the Week 1 loss at Philadelphia, as there were three trips inside the red zone which resulted in zero points. QB Matt Ryan was 21 of 43 for 251 yards, no TD’s and one INT. I’ll point out though that Carolina is just 2-4 ATS in its last six “dome” games and only 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division, while Atlanta is 12-9 ATS in its last 21 dome games and 7-5 ATS in its last 12 against divisional foes. I look for the “hungrier” team to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Missouri v. Purdue +8 | Top | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 122 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* 35-CLUB PLAY is on Purdue (7:30 EST). Missouri comes in a tiny bit complacent after two straight victories, most recently throttling Wyoming 40-13 at home last Saturday. Purdue though comes in desperate as it’s dropped two in a row, including a shocking 20-19 setback at home to Eastern Michigan as a 16 point favorite last weekend. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Boilermakers have to be loving their chances tonight as when these teams met last year, it was Purdue that came away with the 35-3 road victory on September 16th, 2017. Missouri is so far averaging 396 YPG, averaging 45.5 PPG. QB Drew Lock has 687 yards with eight TD’s so far this season. Overall the Tigers are allowing just 13.5 PPG early, but clearly the unit faces a stiff test today against the hungry and determined Boilermakers. So far Purdue is averaging 23 PPG, as David Blough has 122 yards passing and 36 rushing, while co-QB Elijah Sindelz has 283 yards, two TD’s and three picks. The defense has been a bright spot though, allowing only 25.5 PPG. This is a great situational play in my opinion. I think Missouri comes in complacent here in this non-conference matchup as it gets caught looking ahead to its conference schedule. Purdue does not have that luxury at all though obviously and I think the intensity in which the Boilermakers play with today will turn out to be the difference. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I’m going to grab the points in a much closer than expected battle. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -155 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -155 | 27 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (8-9, 4.17 ERA) who returns from the DL to make this start. Nova has been solid at PNC Park so far this year (3.30), but not so much on the road (5.73 ERA). The home side counters with Zach Davies (2-5, 4.75) who will look to take advantage of this end of season opportunity to throw for the big club. He’s had mixed results so far, but I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of the volatile Nova. Note as well that the Brewers are 8-4 in their last 12 National League home games as a favorite in the -150 to -175 range. I’m banking on Davies getting the better of Nova, who has been a disaster on the road to this point. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-15-18 | South Florida -9.5 v. Illinois | 25-19 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on South Florida (3:30 EST). Lovie Smith and the South Florida Bulls get ready to invade Illinois at Solider Field on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, the visitors are going to run away with this one. USF comes in off a confidence building upset over Georgia Tech last week, led by QB Blake Barnett, who had 207 yards and two TD’s through the air, while another 86 rushing yards and two more major scores on the ground. Tyre McCants had ten catches for 104 yards. The Illini come in off a victory over Western Illinois last weekend, but the victory came at a cost, as QB AJ Bush suffered a leg injury in the first quarter and did not return. MJ Rivers looked decent in his place going 9 of 16 for 105 yards and two TD’s. However note that the team also lost WR Edwin Carter in the second half. I’ll point out as well that USF is 4-0 ATS in its last four after scoring 40 or more points in its previous game and 7-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with winning records, while Illinois is just 9-23 ATS in its last 32 following an ATS victory. The Illini lost their starting QB and now have to deal with one of the most dangerous two way teams in the country. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-15-18 | LSU +9.5 v. Auburn | 22-21 | Win | 100 | 118 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on LSU (3:30 EST). It’s an important early season SEC West match-up on Saturday and in my opinion, we’re going to witness a much closer battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. And if recent history is any precedence, then LSU has to be loving it chances today because when these teams played last year it scored the 27-23 home victory. LSU comes in off a 31-0 home win over SE Louisiana. QB Joe Burrows had two TD passes in the victory RB Nick Brossette has 262 yards rushing over two games, which includes 125 against a touch Miami Hurricanes defense. The LSU defense has been a difference maker early and I believe it will be again here, holding the Hurricanes to just 17 points in Week 1. Auburn enters off a 63-9 win over Alabama State last weekend. QB Jarrett Stidham had 113 yards and he so far has a 2/0 TD:INT. The run game posted a whopping 429 total yards, but clearly the unit faces its stiffest test of the young season. Auburn was challenged by a top notch defense in Week 1 vs. Washington and it managed only 21 points in that one. The Tigers did hold the Huskies to just 16 points though in the victory. I’ll point out as well that Auburn is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game, while LSU is 8-2 ATS in its last ten road games against a team with a winning home record. I think this is going to be nail-biter, so I’m going to grab all these points. Play on LSU. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Dodgers -117 v. Cardinals | 17-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Dodgers (1:05 EST). I like the opportunistic visiting side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (8-5, 3.88 ERA) who after a slow start, has gotten stronger as the season has worn on. After finishing 12-8 with a 3.32 ERA last season, the veteran is now also hitting his stride in 2018 (note that Hill is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with John Gant (7-5, 3.16) who for the most part has been as solid as the Cards could possibly have hoped for this season. It’s hard to say anything negative about Gant, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. And that’s because the Cards are a poor 2-7 in their last nine day-time National League home games in which the line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. I like Hill to out-last Gant and for the hard-hitting Dodgers to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-15-18 | Hawaii v. Army -6 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 115 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Army (12:00 EST). Hawaii comes in complacent here in my opinion after starting the year 3-0 with victories over Rice, Navy and Colorado State. Army lost to Duke in its opener, but then the Black Knights bounced back with a win over Liberty last week. Hawaii QB Cole McDonald was 22 of 33 for 319 yards and four TD’s in the 43-29 win over Rice last week. Fred Holly III had 100 yards and two scores on the ground. Army rushed for 449 yards last week behind its triple-option attack, with Darnell Woolfolk leading the way with 96 yards and two TD’s. The Black Knights have won eight in a row at home and I’m expecting that trend to continue here. Nine different players had rushing attempts for Army last week and six of those had at least 32 yards, including five with over 60. I’ll point out as well that despite it’s early success, Hawaii is still a horrible 1-6 ATS in its last seven as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Army is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a favorite in the same points range. I think Hawaii finally stumbles here after it’s unrealistic/unsustainable start. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-14-18 | Dodgers -128 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST). I think this one favors Walker Buehler and the opportunistic visiting side. Buehler (6-5, 3.09 ERA) gave up four earned runs while striking out seven over six innings in a loss at Colorado on Saturday. The thin air of Coors Field got to Buehler, like it does to so many, so clearly I’m not over-reacting to that performance. Over his last 58.1 innings of work he’s still given up only 18 earned runs. The home side counters with Joe Flaherty (8-6, 2.92) who gave up three runs off four hits with four walks over five innings in a loss to Detroit on Saturday. For the most Flaherty has been solid this year, but clearly this latest effort was a big step back. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Flaherty suggests that the home side is likely getting too much respect in this match-up. In my opinion we’re getting great value on Buehler and LA. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-14-18 | Pirates +130 v. Brewers | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8:10 EST). This is a great situational play in my opinion, as I think Gio Gonzalez will stumble in his first start for his new team. The Pirates hand the ball to Chris Archer (4-7, 4.56 ERA) and he most recently gave up three runs off five hits with three walks while striking out five over six innings against the Marlins on Friday. So far Archer has struggled in his time in Pittsburgh, but this latest effort was clearly a big step in the right direction (note that he owns a 3.99 ERA in all night games as well.) Gonzalez (8-11, 4.40) posted a poor 4.57 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 27 starts for the Nats and I don’t think he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” in his first start after getting cast away by Washington. I’m banking on Archer building off his latest performance and I expect Gonzalez to continue his slide into mediocrity. Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Ravens -107 v. Bengals | 23-34 | Loss | -107 | 79 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:20 EST). Baltimore opened the season with a 47-3 destruction of Buffalo and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Bengals also won sizeably, but it wasn’t quite as easy, needing a big second half to pull away for a 34-23 finish over Indianapolis on the road. The Ravens shutout Cincinnati 20-0 last year and they come in rested as most of their starters, including QB Joe Flacco, were able to rest after going up huge on the Bills. Flacco was 24 of 34 for 236 yards and three TD’s in under three quarters of play. The Ravens defense also looked sharp, holding Buffalo to just 70 passing yards and 83 rushing yards. Andy Dalton was 21 of 28 for 243 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Joe Mixon had 94 yards and a TD on 17 carries. AJ Green had six catches for 92 yards, but the Bengals struggled agains the pass by allowing 305 yards. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is 12-3 ATS in its last 15 against the AFC North and 5-1 ATS in its last six Week 2 contests. Beating the “new look” Colts and Andrew luck in his first game back is one thing, but knocking off this fresh Bengals side which comes into the season firing on all cylinders is quite another. I’m expecting a rout and big defensive performance from the visitors. Play on the Ravens. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Old Dominion v. Charlotte +2 | Top | 25-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Charlotte (6:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end. ODU is so far winless on the year with setback to Liberty and FIU, while Charlotte opened with a victory over Fordham, before then dropping its second game against a surging Appalachian State team. The Monarchs have looked horrible. Last week QB Steven Williams and Blake LaRussa combined to go 13 of 19 for 237 yards and two TD’s in the first half, but then went just 6 of 18 for 66 yards the rest of the way. Charlotte also uses two QB’s. This week we can expect to see a lot of Hasaan Klugh, who was mainly featured as a runner last weekend. The 49ers got some great individual defensive play in the blowout setback to the Mountaineers, as safety Ben Deluca had 11 total tackles. I’ll point out as well that Charlotte is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five conference tilts, while ODU is 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests and a dismal 6-16-1 ATS in its last 23 following a SU loss. The Monarchs are banged up and their offense is stuck in neutral. Meanwhile the 49ers have looked a lot better through all three phases. This one has ATS blowout written all over it. Play on Charlotte. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Boston College -5.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 76 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Boston College (7:30 EST). An important early ACC clash favors the visitors on Thursday night in my opinion. BC enters off a 62-14 smoke-job over Holy Cross last weekend, while Wake demolished Towson 51-20. Note that this is a revenge game for the Eagles after Wake recorded a 34-10 victory at Boston College last year. Eagles’ QB Anthony Brown only played one quarter last week and he threw four TD’s. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards and the defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. So far BC has looked fantastic on both sides of the ball over its first two games. Wake Forest has won its first two games as well. QB Sam Hartman had 242 passing yards and two TD’s last week, while the defense held Towson to just 65 rushing yards. However note that the Demon Deacons have struggled against the pass early, as evidenced by the 345 passing yards they gave up last week. I’ll pint out as well that Wake Forest is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 280 passing yards, while BC is 6-0-1 ATS in its last seven conference tilts. The Eagles have the superior pass defense, a unit which finished 22nd in the country last year. I think that’ll be the difference tonight. Lay the points, play on Boston College. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-13-18 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -119 | Top | 3-10 | Push | 0 | 24 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Clay Buchholz (7-2, 2.01 ERA) who gave up two runs over six innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Saturday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Buchholz, but clearly at some point regression is imminent in my opinion. The home side counters with the equally as hot Kyle Freeland (14-7, 2.91) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who appears to be getting better as the season wears on. Note that Freeland is an amazing 8-2 with a 2.21 ERA at Coors Field. Buchholz has been awfully good to this point, but I think the veteran finally takes a step back in this difficult road venue. Freeland on the other hand has proven he can pitch in the thin air and I look for that strong trend to continue. Great price, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-12-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -135 | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 28 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (7-7, 4.04 ERA) who has struggled with his velocity since returning from injury in early August. Strasburg’s been much better on the road than at home this season, but his recent form is definitely a concern. The home side counters with Aaron Nola (16-4, 2.29) who comes in off a victory over the Mets on Friday, giving up three runs off three hits with one walk and striking out eight over seven innings. Note that Nola is 9-1 with a 2.21 ERA at home and 10-1 with a 1.84 ERA in all “night” games. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching, and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by Strasburg suggests that he’s getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. Lay the price, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-12-18 | Indians -105 v. Rays | 1-3 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Cleveland Indians (1:10 EST). Two competent starters collide on Wednesday afternoon, but I think this one favors the big bats’ of the Indians. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (16-8, 3.41 ERA) who gave up two runs (just one earned) off six hits while striking out 14 over eight innings against the Jays on Friday. Over 168 innings of work Carrasco has 199 K’s and note that he’s been at his best on the road with a 7-4, 2.61 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with Blake Snell (18-5, 2.06) who continues to put together the best campaign of his career. Snell was 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last season and while his peripherals suggest that he can maintain a strong form, one has to wonder when the southpaw will finally falter? Certainly this is a difficult opponent. Ultimately though I expect that Carrasco can match Snell inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the under-valued, hard-hitting visiting side. Play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-11-18 | Braves v. Giants +126 | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I think that Andrew Suarez and the home side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 2.75 ERA) who comes in off a strong August and who is putting together a great campaign after finishing 10-13 with a 4.79 ERA a year ago. Foltynewicz has been great, I just think he’ll stumble here in this difficult road venue against Suarez (6-10, 4.33) who comes in off a consecutive strong outings and who appears to be getting better as the season has worn on. The rookie has also been at his best at home with a 2.97 ERA. Additionally note that the Giants are 10-4 in their last 14 National League home games as an underdog in the +125 to +150 range. Great value, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
|||||||
09-11-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -140 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (6-8, 3.75 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Reds on Tuesday. He’s been trading good starts with bad of late and I think that trend carries over here. The home side goes with Miles Mikolas (14-4, 3.06) who will now look to close out his best season ever with another big effort in front of the home town crowd. Note that MIkolas is 8-0 with a 3.86 ERA on the road and 6-4 with a 2.11 ERA at home. Additionally note that the Pirates are just 2-7 in their last nine National League road games in which they’re an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on Mikolas finding a way to get the job done here. Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.