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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-12-17 | Raiders v. Cardinals -3 | Top | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 37 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Arizona Cardinals (10:00 EST). Oakland was 12-4 last year and to say it has big expectations this season would be an understatement. QB Derek Carr had a break-out campaign, before then breaking his leg in Week 16. Third-string QB Connor Cook faltered in the first round of the playoffs. Carr is epxected to see no time tonight. RB Marshawn Lynch is also expected to see limited to no time whatsoever. Arizona was just 7-8-1 last year and will be looking to regain its 2015 form. One big advantage that the Cards have today though over the Raiders is that they’ve already played a preseason contest this year, falling 20-18 to the Cowboys in the Hall of Fame Game (some won, some lost and some pushed on that one depending where/when you got down.) The preseason will be a time for the Raiders to fill a few holes and to try and not sustain any major injuries to key backups, as they’re already stacked top to bottom with the majority of their team in place. The Cardinals though have plenty of position battles going on, so combined with having already played a game, I absolutely feel that the value tonight is on the home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-12-17 | Orioles v. A's -101 | Top | 12-5 | Loss | -101 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (9:05 EST). Both of these starting pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and quite poor in others, however I think that Sean Manaea will benefit from the home field advantage tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (11-8, 4.15 ERA) who comes in off a win against the Angels on Monday, giving up two runs off five hits while striking out ten over seven innings. It was likely Bundy’s best start of the year. He’s been hit or miss this season though and does own a poor 4.55 ERA on the road this season. Manaea (8-6, 4.15) comes in off an outing to forget against the Angels on Sunday, giving up six runs over just 3.1 innings of work. The southpaw has looked shaky over his last two starts but has a big opportunity here to turn things around as he’s already a very respectable 4-2 with a 3.77 ERA at home this season. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 21-35 (-13 units) on the road this season, while Oakland is 31-28 (+2.3 units) at home. I think Bundy’s road struggles continue and I expect Manaea to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, this is a great price, play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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08-12-17 | Mets v. Phillies -136 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I like the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s 7-6 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Steven Matz (2-5, 5.77 ERA) who gave up five earned runs off six hits over 5.1 innings in an 8-0 loss to LA on Sunday. Matz has now lost seven straight starts and to go along with his horrible 5.77 ERA, he also sports an ugly 1.51 WHIP. The home side counters with Aaron Nola (8-7, 3.12) who comes in off a gem against the Rockies in Colorado on Sunday, giving up two runs with seven strikeouts over seven innings. It was Nola’s ninth straight quality start, a strech in which no opponent has yet to score more than two runs off him (note that Nola has been particularly effective at home by going 5-3 with a 2.87 ERA.) I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is 23-20 (+8.4 units) against the division this year, while New York is just 23-24 (-5.4 units) against the division. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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08-12-17 | Twins v. Tigers -110 | 11-12 | Win | 100 | 26 h 32 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (6:10 EST). I think home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker for the surging Jordan Zimmermann this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (10-5, 3.86 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off six hits whiel striking out six over five innings in a fortunate victory over the Rangers on Sunday. Berrios has for the most part been very solid this year, but if he’s had one weakness it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s a pedestrian 4-4 with a 4.38 ERA. Zimmermann (7-9, 5.27) most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over seven frames in a loss to Pittsburgh on Monday. The Tigers’ veteran has now posted three straight quality starts (he’s 5-3 with a 4.01 ERA at home.) I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is just 8-10 (-3.4 units) in its last 18 against teams with losing record,s while Detroit is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four against clubs with winning records. I think Zimmermann continues his progression and outduels Berrios in front of the home town crowd. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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08-11-17 | Astros v. Rangers -109 | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). I think Cole Hamels will take advantage of familiar surroundings and get the better of his counterpart this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (9-4, 3.78 ERA) who struck out seven and gave up three runs over seven innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Saturday. Morton has been strong since returning from the DL, but still owns a pedestrian 4.08 ERA on the road this season. Hamels (6-1, 3.59) comes in off a complete game against the Twins on Saturday, giving up one unearned run and posting five K’s in the victory. Hamels has been a bit inconsistent of late, but he’ll now look to build off perhaps his finest outing of the sason. And note, he has to be feeling especially confident in this spot as he’s already 4-0 with a respectable 3.12 ERA at home this year. I like Hamels to continue his strong play at home and all things considered, I do indeed feel we’re getting a great price. Play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-11-17 | Rockies v. Marlins -102 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 29 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). These starters are pretty evenly matched, but I don’t think that the “home field advantage” can be overlooked as a genuine factor this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (4-2, 4.94 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the soft-hitting Phillies on Saturday, allowing one run off six hits over seven innings in the victory. Gray has been sharp of late, but if he’s had one glaring weakness this season it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s a poor 1-2 with a ballooned 6.67 ERA. The home side counters with Jose Urena (10-5, 3.70) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Braves on Sunday. To go along with his solid 3.70 ERA, Urena also sports a respectable 1.19 WHIP (owns a 3.49 ERA at home as well.) I think Gray’s road struggles carry over here and Urena continues his steady play in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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08-11-17 | Steelers v. Giants -3 | Top | 20-12 | Loss | -125 | 58 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on the New York Giants (7:00 EST). Pittsburgh doesn’t put much stock in the preseason. Or at least it didn’t last year in going just 1-3. The Steelers would then go on to make a run at the AFC Championship. New York finished 2-2 in the preseason and also made the playoffs last year. The Steelers will once again have Ben Roethlisberger under center in Week 1 of the regular season, but Big Ben will likely see no time whatsoever tonight. Pittsburgh was tenth in scoring last year and was led offensively by RB Le’Veon Bell, who will also be sitting this one out. Bell is in fact holding out right now, which leaves Pittsburgh very thin at RB. De’Angelo Williams was let go and third round pick James Conner is injured. The Steelers were one dimensional without Bell in the line-up in the AFC Championship Game (injured) and without Roethlisberger playing either, I have a hard time seeing where the visitors’ offense will come from today. Giants’ QB Eli Manning will also be sitting this one out. New York got the job done last year with its defensive play though, finishing second in the league in allowing only 17.8 PPG. The Giants’ defense will once again be a strength this season and I think its depth will prove to be a big difference maker tonight. No need to overanalyze this meaningless preseason Week 1 contest. I’m giving the big nod to New York in this one because of its defense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-10-17 | Saints v. Browns -3 | Top | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 36 h 8 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Browns (8:00 EST). Both teams missed the playoffs last year. Both teams have plenty to work on in the preseason. Cleveland has Brock Osweiler under center and he’ll see a bunch of snaps today. Osweiler didn’t work out in Texas, but he was solid in Denver and has a big opportunity at redemption this season. He’ll also be sharing time with Cody Kessler. It’s a classic QB battle to open the year for Cleveland and I think this competition will prove to be the difference maker tonight. New Orleans knows who will be under center to open the year, as Drew Brees once again had a huge campaign in 2016/17 (5,208 yards, 37 TD’s.) The Saints also signed veteran RB Adrian Peterson (who will see limited to no time whatsoever in this one.) New Orleans was able to put points on the board no problem last year, so the team will hardly be looking to work on that aspect of its game tonight. Clearly the Saints will be focusing on the defensive side of the ball this preseason after finishing among the bottom feeders in most statistical categories on that side of the ball. With the Browns focusing on offense and the Saints focusing on defense in this meaningless Week 1 preseason contest, I’m going to give the advantage to Cleveland. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-10-17 | Jaguars v. Patriots -3 | 31-24 | Loss | -120 | 36 h 39 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New England Patriots (7:30 EST). This line opened at -4.5 and has since dropped, but regardless, I still think the defending champs will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night in this meaningless Week 1 preseason contest. New England simply has the Jags “number,” having won ten of the last 11 in the series. Jacksonville has missed the playoffs for nine straight years. Jags’ starting QB Blake Bortles has for the most part been a major disappointment. Backup Chad Henne has also been a train-wreck his entire career. We can also expect to see Brandon Allen under center in this one for the visitors. Ultimately though, I think Pats’ backup QB Jimmy Garoppolo will be a big difference maker tonight. I’d say Garoppolo is better than both Bortles and Henne right now. He also has a big advantage in being able to play at home. I thinnk Garoppolo will dominate his counterparts in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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08-10-17 | Mets -151 v. Phillies | 10-0 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (12-5, 3.36 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over five innings while also striking out eight in a 6-0 loss to the Dodgers on Friday. DeGrom looks to bounce back now, he’s still struck out at least eight opponents in five of his last seven starts, posting a tiny 2.64 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and elite 10.8 K/9 over that stretch (note that he’s 10-3 with a 3.57 ERA in all “night” games as well.) The home side counters with Vince Velasquez (2-6, 4.82) who gave up two runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Friday, a little lucky to receive a no-decision as he’d also walk six opponents. Velasquez has been a disappoinment this year and note that he’s just 1-4 with a poor 5.54 ERA at home thus far. I’ll also point out that New York is 7-5 (+1.1 units) already this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 3-10 (-5.9 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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08-10-17 | Vikings v. Bills +2 | 17-10 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Bills (7:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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08-10-17 | Pirates v. Tigers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the under Pirates/Tigers (1:10 EST). I think this number is just a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (9-8, 4.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out five over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Saturday. Cole has been extremely sharp of late, as this was the first time since June 30th that he’s allowed more than two runs in a start. The home side counters with Drew Verhagen (0-1, 5.00) who gave up two runs off four hits and two walks while striking out three over five innings in a no-decision to Baltimore on Saturday. Verhagen is in the line-up out of necessity, but looked sharp against a dangerous Orioles’ lineup. I’ll point out that Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 interleague games already this year, while Detroit has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of 21 home games this season when the total is either 9 or 9.5. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-09-17 | Royals +130 v. Cardinals | 5-8 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). Last night I had a play on the Cards and they’d go on to smash the Royals 10-3 in KC. With the shift in venue, I like the underdog visitors to return the favor and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Royals hand the ball to Trevor Cahill (4-3, 4.13 ERA) who gave up two runs while stirking out three over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against Seattle on Thursday. Cahill has been hit or miss this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in all “night” games, going 3-1 with a very respectable 3.96 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Leake (7-10, 3.34) who gave up three runs off eight hits while striking out three over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Friday. Leake has been scuffling for a while now, having allowed 15 runs over his last 28.2 innings of work while dropping four of his last five decisions. I’ll point out as well that KC is 43-35 (+12.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while St. Louis is just 42-45 (-9.8 units) against right-handed starters. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-09-17 | Texans +3 v. Panthers | Top | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Houston Texans (7:30 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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08-09-17 | Pirates v. Tigers -135 | Top | 0-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). Both of these veteran starters opened the 2017 season promisingly, but each has scuffled of late. I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor today though. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (10-8, 3.66 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits while stirking out five over six innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Friday. It was the third straight outing that Nova has failed to register a quality start and note that he’s consistently been at his worst on the road this year, so far just 3-6 with a 4.42 ERA away from friendly confines. The home side counters with Justin Verlander (7-7, 4.20) who gave up two runs off six hits while striking out ten over seven innings in a victory over Baltimore on Friday. Verlander has in fact looked better of late, having held his opposition scoreless in back-to-back outings while posting quality efforts in each of his last four trips to the mound (note that he’s been at this best at home as well with a 4-2, 3.29 ERA record thus far.) I’ll point out as well that PIttsburgh is just 12-19 (-6.4 units) this year in all road games when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Detroit is 13-9 (+1.4 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-09-17 | Cubs v. Giants +103 | 1-3 | Win | 103 | 21 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the San Francisco Giants (3:45 EST). Kyle Hendricks has been decent in three starts since returning from the DL, but Madison Bumgarner has quietly been dominating since his return from injury and I think he’ll get the better of his counterpart today. Hendricks (4-4, 3.81 ERA) gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over seven innigns in a loss to Washington on Friday (could have been a lot worse, as two of the hits were home runs.) Last year Hendricks gave up 15 home runs in 190 innings of work. This season he’s allowed 11 in 78 frames of work. Bumgarner (1-5, 2.88) gave up two runs off five hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Arizona on Friday. Bumgarner was sharp though, inducing 16 swinging strikes on 104 pitches and posting his second straight quality effort in a row. I think Bumgarner is throwing at a much higher level than Hendricks right now and I like the home side to build off its 6-3 victory on Tuesday. All things considered, great value on the Giants this afternoon. Good luck…Larry |
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08-08-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Dodgers/Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). All signs point to a lower-scoring duel between these red hot starters on Tueday night. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (10-4, 3.79 ERA) who went seven scoreless with six strikeouts in a 3-2 win over Atlanta on Tuesday. Maeda has gotten steadily better as the season has progressed, now 5-1 with a 2.20 ERA in his last six trips to the hill (note that he’s 8-2 with a 3.26 ERA in all “night” games this year as well.) The home side counters with Zack Godley (5-4, 2.86) who went six scoreless against the Cubs on Wednesday while striking out five. Godley has now posted 13 scoreless innings and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this position as he’s 2-1 with a 3.08 ERA at home this year and 4-2 with a 2.01 ERA in all “night” games. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-08-17 | Cardinals -111 v. Royals | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). I like Michael Wacha to build off his recent stretch of dominance and score a victory on the road in this tough interleague matchup. Wacha (8-4, 3.66 ERA) gave up one run while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Thursday. Wacha had pitched into the sixth inning in each of his previous six starts while posting an elite 1.86 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 9.8 K/9 during that stretch. The home side counters with Jason Vargas (13-5, 3.10) who most recently gave up three runs off four hits over five innings in a loss to Baltimore on Wednesday. Vargas has been excellent at home (2.71 ERA), but has now posted 125 innings this season (compared to just 55 total frames over the past two campaigns.) I’m going to give Wacha the slight nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the hard-throwing right-hander in my opinion. Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
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08-08-17 | Padres v. Reds -143 | 7-3 | Loss | -143 | 28 h 50 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cincinnati Reds (7:10 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Luis Perdomo (5-6, 4.92 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 5-2 loss to Minnesota on Wednesday. Perdomo has now bee shelled for at least four runs in five of his last six starts (note that he’s been very poor on the road with a 1-4, 4.57 ERA record and also owns a ballooned 5.71 ERA in all “night” games.) The home side counters with Sal Romano (2-3, 4.88) who gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over six innings in a loss to the Pirates on Thursday. Romano has been pretty average in his rookie campaign, but his 8.5 K/9 is pretty good. The bottom line: Between these struggling starters, I’ll give the nod to the Reds’ line-up. Both teams aren’t known for their offensive prowess, but the Friars are at the very bottom of the barrel. All things considered a great price on the Reds. Good luck…Larry |
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08-07-17 | Brewers v. Twins -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST). I think Ervin Santana and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Brent Suter (2-2, 3.04 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out seven over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. Admittedly, performances like that have been few and far between for Suter and his numbers remain solid across the board, I simply feel he’s in the wrong spot at the wrong time. Santana (12-7, 3.28) gave up two runs off four hits while striking out nine in a complete-game victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Santana would go on to throw 82 of his 110 pitches for strikes (so far Santana has thrown five complete games this season.) For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. I like Santana to outduel his volatile counterpart and for the Twins to take full advantage. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-07-17 | Tigers +130 v. Pirates | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Detroit Tigers (7:05 EST). I think that Jordan Zimmermann and the visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Zimmermann (7-8, 5.35 ERA) enters on quite the surge, most recently holding the Yanks scorless over seven frames in a 2-0 victory on Wednesday, also going on to strike out six. Zimmermann was efficient in throwing 66 of 92 pitches for strikes and has now posted a quality outing in three of his last four starts (and has gone three straight starts without issuing a walk.) The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Williams (4-4, 4.74) who comes in off a decent outing against the soft-hitting Reds on Wednesday, allowing two runs off six hits over five innings. Williams has been solid, but not spectacular this year (note that he’s 0-1 with a pedestrian 4.10 ERA at home so far this season.) For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a starting pitcher, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. While Williams has been serviceable of late, Zimmermann has been downright dominant. I like the Tigers’ vet to continue his progression and all things considered, I do indeed feel that the underdog is the correct call here. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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08-06-17 | Dodgers v. Mets +155 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST). Ultimately I think that Hyun-Jin Ryu is getting too much respect in this matchup. Ryu (3-6, 3.83 ERA) comes in off a no-decision against the Giants on Sunday, allowing no runs off five hits over five innings of work. Ryu has been decent (not spectacular) this season and is 1-4 with a 3.99 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Steven Matz (2-4, 5.50) who also gave up three runs off six hits and two walks over five-plus innings in a no-decision against Colorado on Tuesday. Matz has struggled overall this year, but has a respectable 2-2, 3.82 ERA in all “night” contests. Regression seems imminent for Ryu, while I think Matz will build off his last start. All things considered, I think this is the very definition of great line value. Play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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08-06-17 | Tigers v. Orioles -133 | 3-12 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:35 EST). While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think that Ubaldo Jimenez has the advantage (mostly because of the home field factor.) The visitors hand the ball to Anibal Sanchez (3-1, 5.83 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Yanks on Tuesday, giving up two runs over six innings in the victory. In his previous start he gave up four runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings. Note that Sanchez has been poor in all “day” contests with a 7.39 ERA. Jimenez (4-7, 6.56) has also struggled for the most part this year, but the veteran did post back-to-back quality outings to close July, allowing a total of three earned runs while striking out 15 over 13 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 15-21 (-6 units) on the road this year when the money line is between +125 and -125, while Baltimore is 10-5 (+3 units) as a home fav between -125 and -175. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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08-06-17 | Brewers v. Rays -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 EST). Both of these starting pitchers have put together strong seasons, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as genuine factor in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (9-5, 3.37 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a 3-2 victory over St. Louis on Tuesday. Nelson’s numbers are solid across the board, putting up “ace like” stats for the first time in his career, but if he’s had one weak point it would have to be his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.66 ERA. The home side counters with Chris Archer (8-6, 3.89) who gave up four runs off six hits over six innings while striking out five in a hard-fought 6-4 win over Houston on Tuesday. Archer has been solid in this spot so has to be feeling confident, posting a 3.47 ERA at home and going 3-1 with a 3.51 ERA in all “day” contests. I like Archer to continue his strong play at home and get the better of his interleague counterpart this afternoon. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-05-17 | A's v. Angels -142 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -142 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (9:05 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Paul Blackburn (2-1, 3.05 ERA) who was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 6.1 innings in a fortunate victory over the Giants on Monday. The rookie has been solid across the board, but if his last performance was any indicator, further regression seems imminent in my opinion. The home side counters with Tyler Skaggs (1-1, 3.99) who has been activated from the 60-day DL to make this start. In his final rehab Skaggs performed well and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his solid 3.99 ERA and 29 strikeouts over five big league starts this season. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 17-36 (-15.5 units) on the road this year, while LA is 30-23 (+5.5 units) at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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08-05-17 | Rangers -136 v. Twins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 53 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (7:10 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Cole Hamels (5-1, 4.01 ERA) who gave up four runs (three earned) off six hits while striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Monday. To go along with his respectable ERA, Hamels also sports a decent 1.13 WHIP and note that he’s 4-1 with a 4.04 ERA in all “night” games this year. The home side counters with the volatile Kyle Gibson (6-8, 6.08) who returns to the rotation after a stint in Triple-A. Note that Gibson has been particularly horrible at home by going just 3-5 with a 6.71 ERA. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and often the best indicator we have when trying to assess starting pitchers is “recent performance.” Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Gibson has another very tough night ahead of him. Play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-05-17 | Yankees v. Indians -147 | 2-1 | Loss | -147 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). Ultimately I feel think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (7-6, 4.15 ERA) who has exceeded expectations as a rookie this year. Note that Montgomery is just 3-4 with a pedestrian 4.34 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Danny Salazar (4-5, 4.63) who gave up two runs off three hits and two walks over six innings while stirking out eight in a 9-3 victory over the White Sox on Friday. In two starts since re-joining the rotation, Salazar has posted a tiny 1.38 ERA and 16/2 K/W over 13 innings of work (note that despite just a 1-3 record, Salazar does own a respectable 3.82 ERA at home while holding the opposition to a tiny .191 BAA.) I look for Montgomery’s pedestrian ways on the road to contine and I expect Salazar to continue his dominance at home. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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08-05-17 | Nationals v. Cubs -145 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST). While John Lackey has been far from perfect this season, I still think he has a major advantage over his volatile counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson (2-1, 3.75 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a 3-1 victory over the Rockies on Sunday. Jackson has looked decent in his limited time in a starters role this year, but I’ll point out that he was just 1-4 with an 8.81 ERA on the road as a starter last season. Lackey (8-9, 4.87) comes in off a win against Milwaukee on Sunday, giving up two earned runs off five hits while striking out seven over six innings. Amazingly the veteran has gotten stronger as the season has worn on, over his last four starts spanning 22 innings he’s given up just eight earned runs while striking out 16. Lackey has the pedigree and track record to finish up strong, note that last season he was 7-4 with a 2.62 ERA at home. Regression looks imminent for Jackson. Lay the price, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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08-04-17 | Mariners -141 v. Royals | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (8:15 EST). Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Jason Hammel has another long night in store for him. The visitors hand the ball to James Paxton (11-3, 2.68 ERA) who went six scoreless against the Mets on Sunday, striking out eight and walking none. Over his past four starts Paxton has posted a 34/1 K/W spanning 26 innings (is 4-1 with a 3.57 ERA on the road and 7-2 with a 3.04 ERA in al “night” games overall.) Hammel (5-8, 4.75) was just 1-2 with a 4.75 ERA in six July starts. Unfortunately for Hammel a date at home is not necessarily what the doctor ordered to get back on track as he’s just 3-4 with a poor 4.68 ERA in KC thus far. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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08-04-17 | Dodgers v. Mets +116 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Yu Darvish has another long night in store for him. Darvish (6-9, 4.01) makes his first start for his new team, but in his last start for his old team he gave up a career-high ten runs over just 3.2 innings (note that he’s been pretty pedestrian in all “night” games this year as well, going just 4-6 with a 4.36 ERA. The home side counters with ace Jacob DeGrom (12-4, 3.29) who gave up three runs while striking out ten over six innings in a loss to Seattle on Saturday. DeGrom has now allowed only six earned runs over his last four starts and he’ll have to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA at home and 10-2 with a 3.48 ERA in all “night” games. A lot of pressure on Darvish in his first start for his new team, while DeGrom has been on “cruise control” for months now. All things considered, I believe this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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08-04-17 | Cardinals -130 v. Reds | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 27 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (6:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (7-9, 3.29 ERA) who gave up three runs while stirking out four over five innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. It’s been an up and down season for Leake, but he does own a very respectable 4-3, 3.42 ERA record on the road this year. The home side counters with Asher Wojciechowski (1-1, 4.50), who has been decent in a long relief role, but who owns a 7.79 ERA in four starts this season (giving up six home runs in that span.) Leake could/should easily be a much larger fav in this matchup. I think this is great value on the hard-hitting visiting side. Play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-04-17 | Nationals v. Cubs -145 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 11 m | Show |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST). I don’t think that home field can be overlooked as a signficant factor once the smoke clears at the end of this one. The visitors hand the ball to Tanner Roark (8-7, 4.93 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Saturday. Roark has looked brilliant at times this year and really poor in others, note that he’s a pedestrian 3-3 with a 4.77 ERA in all “day” games this season. Chicago counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 3.80) who comes in off a gem against the Brewers on Saturday, giving up one run off six hits while striking out three over five innings. Hendricks has looked good in two starts back from the DL and he has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 3.93 ERA at home thus far. Recent form displayed by these two starting pitchers suggests that Roark has another long afternoon ahead of him. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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08-03-17 | Phillies v. Angels -142 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 29 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). LA has taken the first two games of this interleague matchup and I like the home side to complete the sweep in what is another clear mismatch on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.56 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits with three walks over five innings in a no-decision against the soft-hitting Braves on Saturday. Eickhoff has looked better of late, but note that he’s still a pathetic 0-5 with a 5.36 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Parker Bridwell (5-1, 2.83) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over 7.1 innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Blue Jays on Friday. Bridwell has held opponents to two runs or fewer in each of his four starts this month (is 2-1 with a 3.72 ERA at home and 3-1 with a 2.91 ERA in all “night” games as well.) I’ll also point out that Philadelphia is just 4-11 (-4 units) in all interleague games this year, while LA is 9-8 (+1.5 units) in all interleague contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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08-03-17 | Rays v. Astros -153 | 5-3 | Loss | -153 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST). I like the Astros to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. The vistors hand the ball to Blake Snell (0-6, 4.87 ERA) who gave up three earned runs over 5.1 innings in a no-decision on Saturday. It was the third consecutive start that the southpaw has given up a home run and to go along with his poor 4.87 ERA, Snell also sports an unattractive 1.55 WHIP (owns a 4.76 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with Colin McHugh (0-0, 4.22) who gave up one run off four hits and one walk while striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Saturday. It was a huge step in the right direction after a shaky season debut and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here (was 6-4 with a respectable 3.67 ERA at home last year.) I’ll point out as well that Tampa is just 1-4 (-2.7 units) in its last five “night” games, while Houston is 50-27 (+12.4 units) in all night contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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08-03-17 | Cowboys -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 36 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:00 EST). For a number of different reasons I think this one favors the high-powered Cowboys. These teams square off in the renovated Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium in Canton, Ohio. Both teams went 1-3 in the preseason last year. Dallas offensive stars QB Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliot and the rest of the starters will see limited to no time whatsoever in this one. With its core in tact, the Cowboys will be looking to “fill holes,” meaning there will be plenty of competition in every position and on both sides of the line. The defense was a strong point for Dallas last year, allowing an average of 19.1 PPG (5th overall.) Arizona will once again be led by aging stars QB Carson Palmer and WR Larry Fitzgerald. One other player to keep your eyes on this year for the Cards is RB David Johnson, who had 1,239 yards last season. Normally a strong point, Arizona was very average defensively last year though in allowing 22.6 PPG (14th.) The Cardinals have a competition for the second spot behind Palmer between Drew Stanton and Blaine Gabbert, but Cowboys’ backup QB Kellen Moore will be equally as eager to solidify his position behind Prescott. For me it comes down to the Dallas offensive and defensive lines, which I think will prove to be the difference in the end on Thursday night. How ‘bout them Cowboys! Good luck…Larry |
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08-03-17 | Yankees v. Indians -133 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 51 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). A couple of red-hot hurlers meet in this one on Thursday night, but I think the scorching Corey Kluber and the hard-hitting home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to the newly acquired Sonny Gray (6-5, 3.43 ERA) who has posted a 1.37 ERA over 39.1 innings spanning his last six starts. If Gray has had one “weakness” this year though, it would have to be his play on the road where he’s a poor 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.04 ERA thus far. Kluber (8-3, 2.90) comes in even hotter than Gray, posting a 2.62 ERA and 56 strikeouts over five starts in July. He’d go on to set a career-best 14.7 K/9 last month. And note that Kluber has been especially tough at home by going a near-perfect 6-1 with a 2.38 ERA thus far. I’ll also point out that the Yanks are just 13-23 (-11.1 units) on the road this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while the Indians are 5-1 (+4 units) at home with a money line between +125 and -125. For all the reasons listed above, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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08-03-17 | Cardinals -120 v. Brewers | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (2:10 EST). Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Matt Garza has another long afternoon in store for him. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (8-4, 3.71 ERA) who most recently went six scoreless while posting five strikeouts in a 1-0 win over Arizona on Friday. Wacha comes in on top form, having gone 3-1 with a 2.36 ERA and a 32/4 K/W over his last five outings (is already 4-0 with a 2.08 ERA in all “day” games this year as well.) Garza (4-5, 3.83) returns from a stint on the 10-day DL sporting a 1.26 WHIP over 82.1 innings of work this season. Garza’s peripherals though suggest that rockier times are ahead, as his strikeout rate is at a career worst 6.1 K/9 (is just 1-3 with a poor 4.96 ERA in all day contests too.) Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is 19-16 (+1.4 units) in all day games this year, while Milwaukee is just 19-22 (-1.6 units) in all day contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-02-17 | A's v. Giants -128 | 6-1 | Loss | -128 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but in this particular matchup I don’t think that the home field advantage can be discounted as a major factor once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Gossett (2-6, 5.74 ERA) and most recently was rocked for five runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Friday. Note that Gossett has been particularly feeble on the road this year, going 2-3 with a 5.84 ERA. Matt Moore (3-10, 5.74) goes for the home side and he comes in off a strong outing against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Friday, going 6.1 innings and allowing three earned runs while striking out six. I like Moore to build off his last performance, while I expect Gossett to continue his struggles on the road. All things considered, this is a great price. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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08-02-17 | Diamondbacks +152 v. Cubs | Top | 3-0 | Win | 152 | 28 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:05 EST). I think that Zack Godley and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Godley (4-4, 3.06 ERA) went seven scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over the Cardinals on Thursday. Godley owns a tiny 1.01 WHIP and a 3.04 ERA on the road. Jake Arrieta (10-7, 4.03) gave up two runs on two hits over 6.2 innings in a victory over the light-hitting White Sox on Wednesday. Arrieta owns a 1.23 WHIP and is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA at home. I’ll point out though that the Diamondbacks are 50-33 (+14.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Chicago is 39-41 (-22.1 units) against right-handed starters. I like Godley to match Arrieta inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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08-02-17 | Reds v. Pirates -150 | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 27 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). Neither of these starters instills much confidence. That said, Trevor Williams comes off a strong start for the Pirates, while Robert Stephenson has been a complete train-wreck for the Reds. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price on the home side. Stephenson (0-4, 7.86 ERA) gave up three runs off four hits and seven walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Fish on Thursday. Stephenson owns a 2.04 WHIP over 34.1 innings of work and is 0-2 with a 10.34 ERA on the road. Williams (4-4, 4.53) comes in off a gem against the Giants on Wednesday, allowing one run off five hits over six innings. Williams has been serviceable at best, but clearly he’s been much more consistent than his volatile counterpart. I’ll also point out that the Reds are just 10-15 (-1.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Pirates are 14-5 (+7.2 units) this season as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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08-02-17 | Twins -115 v. Padres | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (3:40 EST). Ultimately I believe this to be a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Ervin Santana (11-7, 3.37 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out seven over seven frames in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Wednesday. Santana has to be feeling confident throwing in pitcher friendly Petco Park tonight though considering he’s 7-2 with a tiny 2.59 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Luis Perdomo (5-5, 4.76) who gave up four runs off nine hits and two walks while stirking out three over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Mets on Thursday. Perdomo sports a 4-1 record at home despite a poor 4.89 ERA (has a 5.71 ERA in all “night” contests as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three “day” games, while San Diego is just 1-2 (-1 unit) in its last three day contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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08-01-17 | Twins v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Twins/Padres (10:10 EST). Both of these starters have looked brilliant at times this year and very poor in others. I’m expecting these two to get chased early and as a result, I look for this total to eciipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (9-4, 3.76 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits and a walk over four innings in a road loss to LA on Tuesday. This is obviously a much “easier” matchup for Berrios, but note that he still owns a poor 4.89 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (10-7, 4.22) who gave up two runs off four hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a 6-3 victory over the Mets on Wednesday. Chacin has actually been surprisingly good this year and he’s been particularly effective at home, but I feel his numbers are unsustainable down the stretch. Note as well that San Diego has in fact seen the total go over the number in 25 of 34 home games this season when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125 (also note that Minnesota has seen the total go over the number in 26 of 42 against clubs with losing records this year.) For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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08-01-17 | Mets v. Rockies -142 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Steven Matz (2-4, 5.51 ERA) who was shelled for six runs off nine hits over three innings in a 6-3 loss to San Diego on Wednesday. Of the nine hits he gave up, five went for extra bases. Over his last four outings Matz has posted a 14.18 ERA and 2.70 WHIP. The home side counters with Jeff Hoffman (6-3, 5.58) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up six runs while striking out three over four innings in a 10-5 loss to St. Louis on Wednesday. Hoffman has been much better on the road than at home, but note that the Rockies have dominated in this spot for bettors all season by going 25-20 (+5.4 units) following a loss and 19-12 (+10.5 units) against southpaws. Conversely, this is a position in which the Mets have struggled in, going just 36-44 (-17 units) against right-handed starters and only 24-31 (-10.6 units) following a loss. For all the reasons listed above, play on Colorado. Good luck…Larry |
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08-01-17 | Cardinals v. Brewers -110 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:40 EST). All things being equal between these capable starters, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a major factor in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Martinez (7-8, 3.52 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and two walks over six innings in a 10-5 victory over Colorado on Wednesday. Martinez has in fact been sliding for a while now, having posted a 5.90 ERA, 1.62 WHIP and 2.2 HR/9 over five starts in July. The home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.38) who comes in off a gem against Washington on Wednesday, holding the Nats to two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out ten over eight innings of work. Nelson has recorded double-digit strikeouts five times this year and he’s been particularly effective at home by going 4-3 with a tiny 2.39 ERA so far this season. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is just 33-37 (-9.8 units) this year in all “night” games, while Milwaukee is 36-30 (+12.8 units) in all night contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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07-31-17 | Blue Jays v. White Sox +146 | 6-7 | Win | 146 | 30 h 48 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST). Toronto bettors on Sunday were breathing a sigh of relief after the team rallied in the bottom of the ninth to salvage the final game of a three-game set against the Angels. But with that emotional victory done, the team now boards a plane for a game against the lowly White Sox, who I think offer great value in this spot. James Shields has struggled this year for the Sox, but so too has Jays’ starter Marco Estrada. Estrada (4-7, 5.43) gave up two runs off three hits and four walks while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision against the A’s on Wednesday. It was the first time in a month that he’s made it through five innings and note that over his last 33 frames of work he’s posted a deplorable 7.64 ERA, 1.91 WHIP and 30/30 K/W. Estrada has consistently been at his worst on the road this year as well, going 2-5 with a 5.91 ERA. Shields (2-3, 5.86) gave up five runs (just three earned) while striking out four over four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. As mentioned above, both of these starting pitchers have seen better days, so let’s turn our focus to some strong situational trends instead, as Toronto is just 3-5 (-3.6 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Chicago is 3-1 (+2.6 units) in its last four as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. I think Toronto has a letdown here after its big win at home last night. Play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-31-17 | Braves v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under Braves/Phillies (12:35 EST). I think these capable young hurlers will battle each other into the latter innings which will ultimately contribute in pushing this total under the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Foltynewicz (9-5, 3.82 ERA) who domianted the D-Backs in his last start, giving up two runs over six innings while also striking out nine. Foltynewicz has been solid on the road (5-3, 3.86) this year and in all “day” games (0-2, 2.38). The home side counters with Nick Pivetta (3-6, 5.73), who gave up five runs over six frames, while also striking out seven in a 5-0 loss to Houston on Tuesday. Pivetta has been far from perfect in his rookie year, but sports a decent 4.01 ERA at home. I’ll point out as well that the Braves have seen the total go under the number in four of their last six “day” games, while the Phillies have seen the total dip below the posted number in 23 of 38 home games this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-30-17 | Giants v. Dodgers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* National League TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Giants/Dodgers (8:05 EST). The first game of this series went “over” the number in the Dodgers 6-4 win, while Game 2 went under in LA’s 2-1 victory yesterday. Both of tonight’s starters have recently returned from injury and each has looked decent so far. But I think that these veterans will get chased early on the National stage and I look for Game 3 to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Madison Bumgarner (1-4, 3.38 ERA) struck out four and gave up one earned run off six hits in a victory over Pittsburgh on Tuesday. The book is still out on the southpaw though in my opinion, as the sample size is still too small to completely get a firm read on where his performance level is at currently. Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6, 4.17) gave up two runs off five hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision against Minnesota on Monday. It was his first start back from injury and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his rather pedestrian 2-2, 4.10 ERA record at home. I’ll point out though that San Francisco has seen the total go over the number in 36 of 59 after a loss this season, while LA has seen the total sail above number in 39 of 69 following a victory. This number is just a little low in my opinion, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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07-30-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -120 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (2:15 EST). Boths starters have been hot, but I think St. Louis will bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (6-4, 3.47 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off three hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Braves on Tuesday. The home side counters with Lance Lynn (8-6, 3.21) who gave up one run off three hits to go along with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Tuesday. Lynn has now given up just two runs over his last 25.1 innings of work and is 4-3 with a 2.53 ERA at home. It’s interesting to note that Arizona is just 6-8 (-3.8 units) against teams with losing records in the second half of the season, while St. Louis is 5-3 (+2 units) against clubs with winning records in the second half. I like Lynn to take advantage of familiar surroundings, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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07-30-17 | Royals v. Red Sox -154 | 5-3 | Loss | -154 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (1:35 EST). Both pitchers have been solid of late, but Drew Pomeranz has been better than Jason Hammel and I think he’ll find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Hammel (4-8, 4.81 ERA) gave up three runs off five hits and one walk over 5.2 innings in a victory over Detroit on Monday. Hammel though has been at his worst on the road this year, so far just 1-4 with a ballooned 5.03 ERA. Pomeranz (10-4, 3.59) gave up three runs off four hits while striking out seven over five innings in a 6-5 loss to the Mariners on Tuesday. In seven starts previous Pomeranz posted a 4-0 record to go along with a 2.13 ERA. Pomeranz will now look to return to the winners circle at home where he’s 6-2 with a 3.93 ERA. I think Hammel’s road struggles continue and I expect Pomeranz to continue his progression. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-30-17 | Astros v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers RUN-LINE (1:10 EST). I think this is a great price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Lance McCullers (7-2, 3.67 ERA) gets the nod for the visitors and he most recently gave up six runs off nine hits while striking out just three over 4.2 innings in a loss to Baltimore on Sunday. McCullers is struggling, having now allowed 20 runs (18 earned) over his last 18.2 innings of work (note that he owns a pedestrian 4.36 ERA on the road this year as well.) The home side counters with the surging Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.50) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while striking out nine over seven innings in a loss to Kansas City on Monday. Leading up this outing Verlander had allowed three runs or fewer in nine of his previous ten starts (is a highly respectable 3-2 with a 3.62 ERA at home this season.) In a game which I see being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Tigers run line. Good luck…Larry |
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07-29-17 | Pirates -124 v. Padres | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKEND WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (8:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Ivan Nova (10-7, 3.62 ERA) who fell victim to hitter friendly Coors Field in his last start, giving up seven runs off nine hits to go along with five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual loss. But now Nova transitions to the pitcher friendly confines of Petco where he’ll be looking to improve upon his respectable 5-4, 3.33 ERA record in all “night” games this year and take advantage of the league’s worst offense. The home side counters with the volatile Dinelson Lamet (4-4, 5.92) who after also getting blown up at Coors Field for six runs over four innings, bounced back with a decent effort against the Giatns on Sunday, allowing two runs over 6.2 innings (gave up eight hits though.) To go along with his poor 5.92 ERA, Lamet also sports an ugly 3.48 BB/9, numbers which suggest that rockier times are ahead (is 3-3 with a 5.82 ERA in all “night” games.) I think it’s interesting to note as well that Pittsburgh is 11-5 (+8.3 units) this year in all games played on a Saturday, while San Diego is just 6-10 (-2.6 units) in all Saturday games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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07-29-17 | Indians v. White Sox +265 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago White Sox (7:10 EST). I simply feel that Corey Kluber is overvalued in this matchup. Kluber (8-3, 2.74 ERA) comes in off a gem against Toronto on Sunday, allowing one run off five hits and two walks while striking out 14 over seven innings. Kluber has been on a roll over the last month with a stellar 90/10 K/W ratio. Note that he’s 2-2 with a 3.35 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Miguel Gonzaelz (5-9, 4.60) who comes in off a gem himself against the hard-hitting Cubs on Monday, giving up one run off seven hits and three strikeouts over eight innings of work. In two starts since returning from shoulder injury, Gonzalez has quietly domianted, giving up just two runs over 13.1 innings (is 3-3 with a 3.58 ERA at home.) I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is just 1-5 (-8.8 units) this year as a road fav of -175 or more. The White Sox are looking towards the future, but I think Gonzalez can match pace with Kluber inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the home dog. Play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-29-17 | Braves v. Phillies -108 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I like the home side to build off its convincing 10-3 win yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-5, 4.81 ERA) who gave up three runs and five walks over six innings in a no decision against the Dodgers on Monday. The sample size is still too small to properly judge Newcomb, who has looked brilliant at times and really poor in others. The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (2-7, 4.71) who gave up two runs off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Sunday. Eickhoff will look to build off that strong performance and improve upon his 2-2, 3.99 ERA record at home. I’ll point out as well that ATL is just 11-15 (-2.9 units) this season in all road games when the money line is set between -125 and +125, while Philadelphia is 4-2 (+2 units) in its last six in all home games with a money line between +125 and -125. I think Eickhoff is the correct call in this particular matchup and all things considered, I feel this is a great price in the end. Play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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07-29-17 | Mets -130 v. Mariners | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominators is on the New York Mets (4:10 EST). I don’t normally “flip flop” on a team (taking a side one night in a series, but then coming back with the other team the next night), but MLB is one the sport where every contest for the most part has to be looked at serparately (because of the starting pitchers) and while I had a play on Seattle last night, I think New York has a much bigger advantage on the mound on Saturday than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jacob DeGrom (12-3, 3.30 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks to go along with eight strikeouts over eight frames of work in the eventual win over the Padres on Monday. DeGrom is rolling having won eight straight decisions (note that he’s 2-1 with a 2.60 ERA in all “day” contests this season.) The home side counters with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (4-7, 5.58) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Sunday. Gallardo caught a break, as all three runs he gave up were of the solo home run variety, so it clearly could have been a lot worse. Note that he’s just 1-3 with a 6.02 ERA at home this year. It’s interesting to note as well that New York is 10-7 (+3.1 units) this season when playing on a Saturday, while Seattle is just 5-11 (-7 units) on all Saturday games. I like DeGrom to easily outduel his inconsistent counterpart and I look for the Mets to build off yesterday’s win. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-28-17 | Mets v. Mariners -142 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -142 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Rafael Montero (1-7, 5.19 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out four over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. Montero owns a 1.73 WHIP and is 0-4 with a 6.11 ERA in all “night” games, which clearly doesn’t bode well in this late night West Coaster. The home side counters with Ariel Miranda (7-4, 4.30) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out four over 5.1 innings against New York on Saturday. Miranda has stumbled lately, but will now look to get untracked in front of the home town crowd and improve upon his already respectable 3-2, 3.24 ERA record in Seattle. I’ll point out as well that New York is just 1-2 (-1 units) in its last three as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Seattle is 15-9 (+2.3 units) this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mariners. Good luck…Larry |
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07-28-17 | Diamondbacks v. Cardinals -113 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). All things being equal between these starting pitchers, I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a big time factor in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.15 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in a loss to Washington on Sunday. Ray settled down after a disastrous first inning and is still on track for his best campaign as a pro. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (7-4, 3.93) who also comes in off an outing to forget on Sunday, giving up five earned runs off six hits over six innings in the 5-3 loss to Chicago. The silver lining was that he struck out six and walked none. Wacha though had won four straight previous to that and posted a tiny 1.01 ERA and 0.86 WHIP during that stretch of dominance. Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.93 ERA at home and the Cards are 4-2 (+2.2 units) since the All Star break against teams with a winning record. Arizona is a poor 5-7 (-3.9 units) against clubs with losing records in the second half. For all the reasons listed above, play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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07-27-17 | Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 10 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the under Cubs/White Sox (8:10 EST). Both Jon Lester and Mike Pelfrey have seen better days. However, each is coming off a decent outing and I think they’ll be able to carry over some of that momentum here. Lester (7-6, 3.95 ERA) gave up two runs off three hits while striking out ten over eight innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Saturday. The All Star Break couldn’t have come at a better time for the Cubs’ veteran, who has given up three runs over 15 innings spanning his last two starts (is 4-2 with a 3.16 ERA in all “night” games.) Pelfrey (3-7, 4.46) gave up one run off two hits while striking out four over five innings in a 7-2 loss to KC on Saturday. Pelfrey owns a 3.99 ERA at home and will be looking to finish up the season strong as he’s likely on his way out of Chicago with the youth movement in full swing. I like these two determined starters to battle into the latter frames and for this one to sneak under the posted number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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07-27-17 | A's v. Blue Jays -150 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (12:35 EST). Sean Manaea has been awfully steady for Oakland this year, but I think Marcus Stroman and the hard-hitting home side still have a much bigger advantage than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Manaea (8-5, 3.82 ERA) comes in off a dud against the Mets on Saturday, allowing four runs off ten hits while stirking out just two over five innings of work. Manaea has been the backbone of the rotation, but still owns just a pedestrian 4-4, 4.01 ERA road record. Stroman (9-5, 2.98) comes in off a gem against Cleveland on Saturday, giving up one run while striking out seven over eight innings. Stroman has now given up just four earned runs over his last 34 innings of work (has been effective at home with a tiny 2.70 ERA as well.) The best way to properly assess starting pitching is to loko at “recent form.” Stroman comes in on fire and looks determined to close the year strong despite whether his team scuffles or not. All things considered, I think this is a very fair price, play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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07-26-17 | Twins +155 v. Dodgers | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (10:10 EST). I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the undervalued underdog, as I expect Alex Wood to have another letdown here after suffering his first loss of the season in spectacular fashion. The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (11-7, 3.26 ERA) who also comes in off an outing to forget against the Tigers on Friday, giving up five runs with three strikeouts over 3.1 innings. Santana has been solid this year and his peripherals suggest it’s no fluke. Also note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 7-2 with a 2.28 ERA thus far. Wood (11-1, 2.17) was shelled for nine runs (seven earned) off nine hits and four walks over 4.2 innings to Atlanta on Friday. His first half numbers were clearly unsustainable and I expect rockier times ahead for the southpaw. I think Santana can match Wood inning for innning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the underdog. Play on Minnesota. UPDATE: Wood is out and Brock Stewart is in. This line will change significantly obviously, and I clearly still love Santana and the Twins in this spot. Stewart will be on a 50 to 60 pitch limit and it’s been reported that he was stricken with an illness last weekend. PLAY STILL VALID on TWINS. Good luck…Larry |
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07-26-17 | Rockies v. Cardinals -150 | Top | 5-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). Ultimately i feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman (6-2, 5.10 ERA) who was shelled for seven runs off nine hits and four walks over three innings in a 13-5 loss to Pittsburgh on Friday. Hoffman has regressed significantly over the last month, posting a deplorable 8.44 ERA, 1.88 WHIP and 7/7 K/W over 16 innings spanning his last three starts. The home side counters with ace Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.34) who gave up three runs (two earned) while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Friday. Martinez has allowed two or fewer earned runs in six of his last eight starts and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his solid 4-3, 2.90 ERA record at home. I like Martinez to continue his strong play at home and I expect Hoffman to continue to nose-dive. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-26-17 | Brewers v. Nationals -145 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). I think this one favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Jimmy Nelson (8-5, 3.43 ERA) who gave up four runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five in a loss to Pittsburgh on Thursday. Nelson has been as solid as Milwaukee could have hoped for this season, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he owns a poor 4.96 ERA to this point. The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (8-5, 2.83) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up four runs off five hits and three walks over 5.2 innings in a 7-0 loss to the Angels on Wednesday. It was just the first time since May 25th that he’s not lasted at least six frames and while Gonzalez is just 1-2 at home this year, he owns a tiny 1.95 ERA in the nation’s capital. I like Gonzalez to bounce back and outlast his counterpart and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-25-17 | Marlins v. Rangers -143 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). I like the Rangers to respond after falling 4-0 on Monday night. The Marlins hand the ball to Dan Straily (7-5, 3.49 ERA) who gave up four runs off nine hits and three walks over five innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Wednesday. Straily has been solid across the board, but has been better at home (2.82) than on the road (4.37). The home side counters with ace Cole Hamels (4-1, 3.78) who gave up seven runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out just three over 5.1 innings against the Orioles on Thursday. Hamels peripherals suggest he could be in store for rockier times ahead, but regardless of that, he’s been at this best at home this year with a 3-0, 2.22 ERA record thus far. I’ll point out as well that Miami is just 7-10 (-3.3 units) in all interleague games this year, while Texas is 10-2 (+10.2 units) in all interleague contests. I like Hamels to outduel Straily and for the Rangers to bounce back after getting blanked last night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-25-17 | Royals +135 v. Tigers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 135 | 27 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:10 EST). I like Kansas City to build off yesterday’s 11-3 win. I actually had a play on the Tigers yesterday and while I never “flip-flop” on a team (playing on one team one night and then coming back with the other side the next night), MLB is the one sport where each game must be looked at by itself, because for the most part it’s all about the starting pitchers. And in this case, Danny Duffy (6-6, 3.71 ERA) has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup in my opinion. Duffy most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over five innings in a victory over Detroit on Thursday. It wasn’t his greatest start of the year obviously, but he had an early eight-run lead, so was able to throw it in cruise control and pepper the strike zone, which led to a couple of extra runs. To go along with his solid 3.71 ERA, Duffy also sports a 1.28 WHIP and 7.1 K/9 for the season (is 5-3 with a 3.31 ERA in all “night” games as well this year.) The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06) who gave up eight runs off seven hits while striking out two over 2.2 innings in a loss to these very Royals throwing opposite Duffy last week. Granted those types of outings have been few and far between for Fulmer this season (and throughout his career), but note that Detroit has struggled in this spot all year by going just 25-37 (-12.1 units) in all “night” games, while conversely, the Royals have looked great by going 33-30 (+6.5 units) in all night contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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07-25-17 | White Sox +185 v. Cubs | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago White Sox (2:20 EST). I had a play on the White Sox yesterday in their 3-1 victory as a large underdog and once again I think the visitors have much more than just a “punchers chance” this afternoon as well. The White Sox hand the ball to Carlos Rodon (1-3, 5.75 ERA) who comes in off a crummy outing against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing five runs while striking out four over 3.2 innings of work. It was just his fourth start of the year, so it’s definitely still too early to properly judge the southpaw (note that Rodon owned respectable 3.57 ERA on the road last season.) The home side counters with the volatile John Lackey (6-9, 5.04) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up one run off five hits over five innings in a 5-1 win over Atlanta on Tuesday, managing just a single strikeout. For the most part though Lackey has been a complete disaster across the board for the defending champs, note that he owns a poor 1-4, 5.05 ERA record at home. The Cubs’ pitching remains overpriced. Rodon is being touted as the staff “ace,” but has yet to perform at the level since returning from injury. But here’s the perfect stage and opponent to get untracked against. The value once again swings to the visitors in Game 2, play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-17 | Pirates -148 v. Giants | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (10:15 EST). Gerrit Cole hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s coming off a strong outing and has been trending in the correct direciton of late. The same can’t be said of Giants’ veteran Matt Cain, who will come out of the bullpen to make this start in place of the injured Johnny Cueto. All things considered, I think the visiting could easily be a much larger fav in this matchup. Cole (7-7, 4.18 ERA) struck out ten over seven innings and gave up one run in an unfortunate no-decision against the Brewers on Wednesday. Cain (3-8, 5.49) has been better at home than on the road this season, but note that the Giants are just 7-10 (-3.8 units) in July, while Pittsburgh is 12-6 (+7.3 units) this month. These starting pitchers and teams are moving in the opposite directions. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-17 | Rockies v. Cardinals -130 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:05 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (10-3, 4.67 ERA) who earned a win over San Diego on Tuesday despite giving up four runs off four hits. Senzatela only most recently rejoined the rotation after being demoted in June following an eight-start stretch in which he was shelled for 33 runs in 44.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Mike Leake (6-8, 3.39) who has struggled over the last month. Leake has just a 2-5 record at home despite a very respectable 3.38 ERA. I like Leake to ‘right the ship’ tonight as I expect Senzatela’s inconsistencies to once again be a major factor. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-17 | Ottawa v. Toronto OVER 55 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the over Redblacks/Argos (7:30 EST). The 1-3-1 Ottawa Redblacks get ready to battle the 2-2 Toronto Argonauts on Monday night. Ottawa got off the schneid with its first victory of the year last week, but it’s still just 2-4 in its last six on the road. Redblacks QB Trevor Harris has 1,755 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s this year. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on the tandem of Brad Sinopoli and Greg Ellingson, who have 999 receiving yards and four TD’s this year. Ottawa has been atrocious defensively though in conceding an average of 30.8 points and 413.2 YPG. Toronto has lost six of its last eight at home. QB Ricky Ray has 1,529 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s so far. DeVier Posey and SJ Green have combined for 732 receiving yards and three TD’s. The Argos have been sharp defensively in allowing only 25.2 points and 354.4 YPG, but it’s interesting to note that they’ve seen the total go over the number in six of their last nine in Week’s 5 through 9. And note, Ottawa has seen the total go over the number in two of three as an underdog already this year. I’m expecting each side to push the pace from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-17 | Royals v. Tigers -142 | 5-3 | Loss | -142 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Hammel (4-8, 4.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and a walk over six innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Wednesday. Hammel has admittedly looked much better of late, but his Achilles heel has clearly been his play on the road this season, going just 1-4 with a 5.08 ERA. The home side counters with Justin Verlander (5-7, 4.54) who comes in off a great performance against the Royals on Wednesday, allowing two runs off six hits while striking out eight over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Verlander has been much better at home (3.59) than on the road (5.32) this year. KC is just 17-23 (-5.4 units) against its division foes, while Detroit is 23-19 (+4.1 units) against the division. Verlander continues to audition for other teams and I look for him to build off his latest performance. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-24-17 | White Sox +213 v. Cubs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 213 | 22 h 2 m | Show |
10* Daytime Dominator on the Chicago White Sox (2:20 EST). I think this one sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Cubs after their Sunday nighter against the Cardinals. Miguel Gonzalez and the cross-town rival White Sox will look to sneak away with a winner in the opener as a big dog going away. Gonzalez (4-9, 4.89 ERA) comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing one run off five hits to go along with five strikeouts over six innings in what turned out to be a 1-0 loss (owns a respectable 4.31 ERA in all “day” games thus far.) The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 4.09) who makes his first outing back after an extended stint on the DL again. He looked sharp in his final re-hab start but still owns a rather pedestrian 4.18 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. I’ll point out as well that the White Sox are 5-2 (+3.2 units) in their last seven “day” contets, while Chicago is 22-23 (-12.4 units) in all “day” games this year. All things considered, I think the pressure is on Hendricks and the value is on Gonzalez. Play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-17 | Padres v. Giants -125 | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Francsico Giants (4:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Dinelson Lamet (3-4, 6.40 ERA) who gave up six runs off four this and four walks in a 9-7 road loss at Coors Field on Tuesday. Lamet has 62 strikeouts in 45 innings of work, but his 3.8 BB/9 points to continued regression (is 1-3 with an 8.59 ERA on the road thus far.) The home side counters with Ty Blach (6-5, 4.36) who held Cleveland to one run off seven hits while striking out three over seven innings on Tuesday. Blach has now posted three consecutive quality outings and he has to be feeling pretty confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as he’s 3-3 with a respectable 3.57 ERA at home so far this season. For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Blach should be a much larger fav in this particular matchup. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-17 | Marlins v. Reds UNDER 11 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the under Marlins/Reds (1:10 EST). These teams combined for nine runs in Miami’s 5-4 win yesterday, the total in that one staying below the 11.5 number. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score in the finale as well. The visitors hand the ball to Tom Koehler (1-4, 7.92 ERA) who after giving up three runs off four hits with seven strikeouts in a win against the Cardinals, took another step back in his last outing, raising his ERA to an unsightly 7.92. So far Koehler has struggled across the board, but note that Miami has seen the total go under the number in 20 of 33 “day” games already this year. The Reds counter with Sal Romano (1-2, 7.50) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up six runs over four innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. Despite his struggles, it’s important to note that the rookie is a respectable 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA on the road. I’ll also point out that Cincinnati has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 16 already this month. I look for that strong trend to continue here. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-23-17 | Blue Jays +185 v. Indians | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:10 EST). This has been a competitive series and I think the finale will also come down to the wire. And in a scenario like that, I think JA Happ and the hungry visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” this afternoon. Happ (3-6, 3.55 ERA) comes in off his first truly poor outing of the year, giving up six runs (just two earned) off seven hits over four innings to the hard-hitting Astros on Sunday. Previous to that though Happ had posted five straight quality starts (note that he owns a very respectable 3.00 ERA on the road). The home side counters with Corey Kluber (7-3, 2.86) who missed his last start with a neck injury. It’s hard to say anything negative about Kluber, but it’s yet to be seen if this latest injury is serious or not. I’ll point out as well that the Jays have in fact excelled in this spot of late by going 7-5 (+2.4 units) in their last 12 against teams with winning records, while the Indians have struggled in this position by going just 5-8 (-10.8 units) in their last 13 against clubs with losing records. In my opinion, the value is simply too good to turn down in a matchup which I feel is a lot more even than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Play on the Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-17 | Red Sox -137 v. Angels | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -137 | 28 h 5 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (9:05 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to David Price (5-2, 3.39 ERA) who comes in off a gem against New York on Sunday, going eight scoreless and posting an 8/0 K/W. Price is a solid 3-1 with a 3.97 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with JC Ramirez (8-8, 4.54) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits over six frames in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Ramirez has been better on the road (7-3, 3.60) that at home (1-5, 5.50) this season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I absolutely feel that Price is the correct call. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-17 | Tigers v. Twins UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Tigers/Twins (7:10 EST). These teams combined for nine runs last night in Detroit’s 6-3 victory (I unfortunately had a big play on the Twins in that one), the total sneaking under the posted number. Suffice it to say, I think tonight’s total is also a tad high. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (6-7, 5.58 ERA), who comes in off his best outing of the year, holding Kansas City to one run over seven innings to go along with seven strikeouts in the eventual victory on Monday. Zimmermann would go on to throw 79 of his 97 pitches for strikes. The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (5-8, 6.29) who gave up four runs off six hits to go along with six strikeouts over six innings in a setback to Houston on Sunday. Note that he’s 4-2 with a 5.15 ERA in all “night” games this year. And I’ll point out as well that Detroit has in fact seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 17 on the road when the money line is between +125 and -125, while Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 already this year when the total in the contest is set between 10 and 10.5. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-17 | Blue Jays v. Indians -146 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). I like the Indians to build off yesterday’s 13-3 victory. Toronto hands the ball to Marcus Stroman (9-5, 3.10 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out five in a no-decision against Boston on Monday. It’s hard to point out anything negative about Stroman this season, as he’s been solid across the board. I simply feel this is a bad spot for the hard-throwing right-hander. The home side counters with Danny Salazar (3-5, 5.40) who makes his first big league start since late May. In his last warm up at Triple-A Columbus on Sunday, Salazar went six scoreless while scattering three hits and posting nine strikeouts (last year he was 5-2 with a 3.99 ERA at home.) Toronto’s dealing with injuries to its line-up, which doesn’t bode well in trying to match up against Cleveland’s big bats. I like Salazar to match Stroman inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel the advantage falls to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-22-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -164 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (4:05 EST). I had a play on Chicago yesterday afternoon and the Cubs would fall apart late and give up nine runs in the top of the eighth. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the defending champs to respond this afternoon. This pick would be at the very uppermost juice that’d I’ll ever lay, but in this case I think it’s well worth it. The Cards hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (11-5, 5.08 ERA) who comes in off a decent performance against the Mets on Monday, giving up three runs off six hits over five innings. Wainwright has been good at home (7-1, 3.19) and horrible on the road (4-4, 7.68). The home side counters with Jon Lester (6-6, 4.07) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. It was a big step in the right direction to open the second half and he’ll now look to build upon his respectable 3-3, 3.73 ERA record at home. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as Wainwright has been at his worst on the road all year, while Lester has been at his best in “The Friendly Confines.” Lay the price, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies -152 | 13-5 | Loss | -152 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams (3-4, 4.69 ERA) who gave up two runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Cards on Sunday. Admittedly, Williams has been a lot better of late, but he has consistently been at his worst on the road this year by going 3-3 with a 5.13 ERA. Which clearly doesn’t bode well heading to hitter friendly Coors Field. Colorado counters with Jeff Hoffman (6-1, 4.33) who gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Sunday. Hoffman is 2-1 with a 6.44 ERA at home and 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA on the road. I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is just 29-35 (-7.3 units) in all “night” games, while Colorado is 31-28 (+2.9 units) in all night contests. I like Hoffman to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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07-21-17 | Tigers v. Twins -130 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -130 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Detroit hands the ball to Anibal Sanchez (1-0, 6.08 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off nine hits while striking out three over six innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Sunday. Note that so far he’s 0-0 with a 6.33 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with ace Ervin Santana (11-6, 2.99) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while striking out three in a victory over Houston on Saturday. Note that he owns a 3.63 ERA at home and 3.48 ERA in all “night” games. The only question here is whether or not we think that Santana will have a big mental letdown or if he’ll come in focused on the task at hand? I think it’ll be the latter, as it’s his first start back from the break and he’ll be eager to prove that his first half dominance was no fluke. Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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07-21-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -155 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -155 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago Cubs (2:20 EST). I think this is a matchup which favors the home side, making this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Martinez (6-8, 3.36 ERA) who most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out five over seven innings in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday. Previous to his All Star appearance though, Martinez had given up five runs in two outings each to close the first half. The home side counters with Jake Arrieta (9-7, 4.17) who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits over 6.2 innings in a win over the Orioles on Saturday. Arrieta finished the first half strong by holding his opposition to one or fewer earned runs in three of his last five outings and he certainly has the pedigree and track record to continue his progression in the second half. And that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. Martinez struggled in his final two starts before the mid-summer classic and things certainly won’t get any easier in “The Friendly Confines.” Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-17 | Yankees v. Mariners UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the under Yankees/Mariners (10:10 EST). When the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (5-4, 3.40 ERA) who comes in off a dominant outing against the Red Sox on Saturday, allowing one run off four hits while striking out six over seven innings. Severino has now posted back-to-back gems and he has to be feeling very confident in this spot as he’s 5-3 with a 2.96 ERA in all “night” games and 2-1 with a 3.02 ERA on the road. The Mariners counter with Felix Hernandez (5-3, 4.20) who comes in off likely his best start of 2017, giving up three runs (one earned) while striking out five over five innings in a victory over the White Sox on Saturday. Hernandez is still trying to work his way back into top form, but note that he’s consistently been at his best at home by going 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA thus far. Looks like a classic pitchers duel to me, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-17 | Tigers v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 46 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Tigers/Royals (8:15 EST). A couple of “studs” face off on the mound in this one and suffice it to say, I believe runs will be at a premium tonight. The visitors hand the ball to ace Michael Fulmer (10-6, 3.06 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits and one walk while striking out three across eight innings in a victory over Toronto on Saturday. Fulmer has now won four straight decisions and to go along with his respectable 3.06 ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.07 WHIP (and he owns a tiny 2.25 ERA on the road thus far.) The home side counters with ace Danny Duffy (5-6, 3.51) who comes in off a gem against Texas on Saturday, giving up one earned run off five scattered hits over 8.1 innings. Duffy has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, as not only is he a very respectable 4-3, 2.98 ERA in all “night” games, but he also owns a tiny 2.41 ERA at home. As stated off the top, recent performance displayed by these starters suggests that runs will be at a premium tonight. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 10 | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Jays/Red Sox (1:35 EST). Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I still think this number is just a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (5-5, 6.04 ERA) who started the year decently, but who has since fallen on hard times. The veteran has the pedigree and track record to turn things around though and he’s been solid in all “day” games this year as well by going 2-1 with a 4.50 ERA. Boston counters with Doug Fister (0-3, 6.75) who like his counterpart today, hasn’t lived up to expectations so far for his new team. That said, I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 25 this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. Also note that Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in 20 of 34 “day” games this season. These two struggling hurlers are both hungry to get back on track before they’re dropped from the league entirely and I expect this sense of immense competition to help in contributing to a lower-scoring under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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07-20-17 | Brewers +119 v. Pirates | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 7 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (12:35 EST). I think Jimmy Nelson and the hard-hitting Brewers have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Nelson (8-4, 3.27 ERA) most recently gave up two runs off three hits and two walks while stirking out nine over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. Nelson has now given up just 25 earned runs through 87 innings over his last 14 starts and he’s been super sharp in all “day” games by going 4-1 with a 1.58 ERA. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (5-3, 3.06) who gave up four runs off eight hits over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Saturday. Taillon for the most part has been solid, but he’s still a very average 2-2 with a 3.86 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee is 40-35 (+10 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Pittsburgh is 35-36 (-1.3 units) against right-handed starters. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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07-19-17 | Nationals -122 v. Angels | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -122 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Nationals (10:05 EST). Ultimately I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (8-4, 2.66 ERA) who went 8.1 scoreless innings against the Reds on Friday, giving up four hits and walking six. Gonzalez has to be feeling pretty confident here as he’s 7-2 with a 3.26 ERA on the road so far. The home side counters with Ricky Nolasco (4-10, 4.82) who gave up one run off two hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Friday. Nolasco has looked a lot better of late, but he’s just 2-4 with a 4.42 ERA at home and only 4-7 with a 4.76 ERA in all “night” games. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I expect the red hot Gonzalez to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Play on the Nationals. UPDATE: Nolasco is out and Alex Meyer is in. This play is STILL VALID! Meyer (3-5, 4.18) has good fast-ball velocity (90 MPH range) but has a lifetime 6.1 BB/9 at the major league level. Meyer has been better at home than on the road this year, but is still just 2-5 with a 4.50 ERA in all “night” games. Good luck…Larry |
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07-19-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -125 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). Aaron Sanchez (1-2, 3.94 ERA) gets the call for the visitors and he most recently gave up one unearned run off seven hits over six innings in a victory over Detroit on Friday. Over seven starts this year Sanchez owns a poor 1.59 WHIP and 22:15 K/W through 32 innings of work. The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (9-4, 3.75) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks while stirking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against the Yanks on Friday. This was the first time that he’s given up more than two earned runs in any of his last six starts and note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all year by going 8-3 with 3.61 ERA in all “night” contests thus far. Sanchez was unbelievable last year, but I’m not a believer quite yet despite a decent outing in his last trip to the mound. Advantage Pomeranz. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-19-17 | Diamondbacks -153 v. Reds | 3-4 | Loss | -153 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST). Ultimately I think that Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting visiting side should be much larger favorites than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Greinke (11-4, 2.86 ERA) comes in off a gem, going seven scoreless with seven K’s in an eventual victory over the Reds on Friday. To go along with his solid 2.86 ERA, Greinke also sports an elite 1.00 WHIP and 10.1 K/9. Greinke has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as well as he’s 10-3 with a 2.58 ERA in all “night” games thus far. The home side counters with Tim Adleman (5-7, 4.99) who gave up five runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over 4.1 innings in a 5-0 loss to Washington Friday. Adleman has gotten progressively worse as the season has worn on, having now allowed at least three earned runs in five straight starts while failing to make it out of the fifth frame in any of them. Note that Adleman has been particularly poor at home as well with a 5.09 ERA to this point. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Greinke and the D-Backs should indeed be much larger favs in this particular matchup. Value swings to the visitors, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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07-19-17 | Cubs v. Braves UNDER 10 | Top | 8-2 | Push | 0 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the under Cubs/Braves (12:10 EST). Neither of these pitchers instills too much confidence, but I still think this number is just a little high. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Montgomery (1-3, 5.77 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits while striking out two over four innings in a no-decision against Baltimore on Friday. Montgomery has been serviceable this year and owns a 4.01 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the venerable RA Dickey (6-5, 4.08) who most recently struck out four and gave up one run off eight hits and two walks over six frames in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Friday. The knuckleballer has now posted quality starts in each of his last five trips to the hill and has posted a tiny 1.09 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 27/8 K/W ratio over that span. Note that Dickey has been at his best at home as well this season, going 5-1 with a 3.13 ERA. I look for these starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result, everything points to this one falling below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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07-18-17 | Indians -139 v. Giants | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -139 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (10:15 EST). I like the visitors to build off last night’s interleague victory. The Tribe hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (5-3, 3.00 ERA) who went six scoreless while striking out four in a win over Detroit on Saturday. Clevinger enters the second half on fire, posting a 1.67 ERA and 28 strikeouts over his last 27 innings of work. To go along with his solid 3.00 ERA, Clevinger also sports a sharp 1.15 WHIP and .184 BAA through 12 games (note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.56 ERA on the road as well.) The home side counters with Ty Blach (6-5, 4.60) who gave up three runs off six hits in a victory over Detroit on Wednesday. Blach has been “hit-or-miss” this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent in this spot, going a poor 5-5 with a ballooned 5.50 ERA in all “night” games. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is already 14-9 (+1.7 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while San Francisco is 17-24 (-10.8 units) at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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07-18-17 | Cardinals -113 v. Mets | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:10 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (6-3, 4.10 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and two walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Miami on Thursday. Wacha closed the first half of the 2017 season on fire by posting a superb 18/3 K/W over 11.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Rafael Montero (1-5, 5.77) who gave up four earned runs off eight hits over six innings in a loss to the light-hitting Phillies on Sunday. Montero has been particularly horrible at home this year as well, going 0-4 with a 7.11 ERA. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, I think Wacha has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart. Play on the Cards. Good luck…Larry |
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07-18-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -138 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (1-3, 4.78 ERA), who returns from the DL to make this start. Guerra has so far fallen short of his spectacular 2016 and note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road by going just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.59 ERA. The home side counters with ace Ivan Nova (9-6, 3.21) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out six over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Cubs on Saturday. Nova hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd by going 6-2 with a 2.63 ERA in Pittsburgh thus far. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and in this case, Nova has a clear advantage over his volatile counterpart. All things considered, I do indeed feel this is a great price. Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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07-18-17 | Rangers v. Orioles -126 | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). I like the home side to build off yesterday’s 3-1 victory. The vistors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (2-1, 5.33 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over five innings in a victory over the Angels on Saturday. Despite the victory Ross still struggled with his control, throwing just 48 of his 94 pitches for strikes. Note that he’s 0-0 with a 4.09 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (8-8, 4.33) who started the 2017 campaign on fire, but who predictably fell back down to Earth over the last month and a half. The third-year pro though has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as despite a 4-4 home record, he does sport a solid 3.56 ERA in Baltimore so far. I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 20-26 (-1.3 units) on the road this year, while Baltimore is 25-19 (+5 units) at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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07-17-17 | Cubs v. Braves +135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I had a 10* play on the Cubs in their 8-0 win over the Orioles yesterday, but I think the defending champs will take a step back on Monday night. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (5-6, 4.25) who gave up ten runs off six hits in a loss to the Pirates on Sunday. Lester hasn’t matched his spectacular 2016 showing and has been particuarly average on the road this season by going just 2-3 with a 4.96 ERA. The home side counters with ace Julio Teheran (7-6, 4.79) who gave up no runs off four hits and two walks while striking out five over seven innings in a victory over Washington on Saturday. Teheran entered the break posting two consecutive quality outings and has the track record and pedigree to keep the momentum rolling in the second half. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 30-39 (-27.2 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Atlanta is 7-4 (+4.9 units) against southpaws this season. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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07-17-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -125 | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Marcus Stroman (9-5, 3.28 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and three walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over Houston on Saturday. For the most part Stroman has been one of the best in the AL this year, but if he’s had one weakness, it’s been his play on the road where he’s posted a pedestrian 4.14 ERA. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-2, 3.54) who gave up one run off six hits and no walks while striking out seven over 6.1 innings in a re-hab start for Triple-A Pawtucket this past Sunday. Before he was injured Rodriguez was 1-0 with a tiny 1.56 ERA at home. I’ll point out as well that Toronto is just 16-21 (-6.2 units) against teams with winning records this year, while Boston is 21-14 (+1.7 units) against clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-17-17 | Nationals v. Reds UNDER 9 | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under Nationals/Reds (12:35 EST). A couple of competent starters go head-to-head on Monday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I expect this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (9-3, 3.43 ERA) who finished the first half with a 10.5 K/9 and a 2.5 BB/9 across 17 starts. Note that Strasburg has been particularly effective on the road by going 6-1 with a 2.61 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Scott Feldman (7-6, 3.94) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rockies on Wednesday, giving up four runs off five hits while striking out six over five innings in the eventual 5-3 setback at hitter friendly Coors Field. Feldman has been serviceable this year, but has consistently been at his best at home by going 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA (is also 5-1 with a 2.72 ERA in all “day” games). I’ll point out as well that the Nationals have seen the total go under the number in 21 of 34 days games this season, while the Reds have seen the total go under in seven of their last eight against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-16-17 | New York Yankees - Game #2 v. Boston Red Sox - Game #2 -142 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Boston Red Sox (8:05 EST). New York won 4-1 in extra innings last night, but I think that Boston bounces back in the finale of this series. The visitors hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka (7-8, 5.47 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and one walk while striking out five over 4.1 innings against Milwaukee on Sunday. Tanaka has been all over the map as far as his game to game consistency is concerned this season, but he’s consistently been at his worst on the road where he’s just 3-4 with a 6.24 ERA. The home side counters with David Price (4-2, 3.91) who gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over six innings in a no-decision against Tampa Bay on Sunday, also going on to strike out five. Price is hitting his stride, having now posted four consecutive quailty starts with a 26/5 K/W over his last 25 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that New York is interestingly just 7-9 (-4.4 units) when playing on a “Sunday” this year, while Boston is 9-5 (+1.4 units) in all “Sunday” games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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07-16-17 | Rangers v. Royals UNDER 9 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Rangers/Royals (2:15 EST). Texas managed a 1-0 victory on Saturday and in my opinion, all signs point to another “duel” this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish (6-8, 3.49 ERA) who gave up two runs off three hits over seven innings in a 3-0 loss to the Angels on Sunday, also going on to strike out six. Note that while Darvish is just 3-3 on the road, he does sport a very respectable 2.32 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Ian Kennedy (3-6, 4.45) who most recently gave up three runs off seven hits and a walk while striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Saturday. Kennedy has now posted three straight quality starts and while his ERA is pedestrian, his peripherals (1.17 WHIP) suggest that he’ll have an opportunity to better his record in the second half. I’ll point out as well that Texas has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 21 this year when on the road with a money line between +125 to -125, while KC has seen the total dip below the posted number in 18 of 29 at home with a money line between +125 and -125. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-16-17 | Cubs -141 v. Orioles | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 0 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (1:35 EST). I like the Cubs to build off yesterday’s impressive 10-3 victory. The visitors hand the ball to the newly acquired Jose Quintana (4-8, 4.49 ERA), who will be looking to make a good first impression for his new club against a familiar AL opponent. Quintanta has admittedly been more “miss” than “hit” this season, but it’s worth while to note that he does have 109 strikeouts over 104.1 innings of work thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Ubaldo Jimenez (4-4, 6.67) who has been atrocious of late, failing to make it out of the fifth inning in three of his last four starts while posting a 7.97 ERA in that span (has a 7.24 ERA at home this year as well.) I’ll also point out that Chicago is already 12-7 (+2.1 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Baltimore is just 2-4 (-1.3 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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07-16-17 | Rockies v. Mets UNDER 8.5 | 13-4 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Rockies/Mets (1:10 EST). After yesterday’s higher-scoring 9-3 win for the Mets, I’m exepcting more of a pitchers duel in the finale of this series. The visitors hand the ball to Jeff Hoffman (5-1, 4.15 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits over seven innings in a no-decision against the White Sox on Saturday. Hoffman obvioulsy has the league’s toughest home field to throw at, but note that his peripherals (8.0 K/9, 2.6 BB/9 and 3.44 FIP) suggest that his numbers could improve over the second half. While he’s 2-1 with a 6.44 ERA at home, he’s 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Steven Matz (2-2, 3.05) who went just 4.1 innings in a loss to St. Louis on Sunday, giving up five runs off seven hits. Previous to this latest “dud” though, Matz had been spectacular with a 2.19 ERA over a five start stretch. I’ll point out as well that Colorado has seen the total go under the number in six of eight as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range this season, while New York has seen the total go under in 14 of 24 road games. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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07-15-17 | Giants v. Padres +136 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 136 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the San Diego Padres (8:40 EST). I had a play on San Francisco last night, the 10* pick in my Superstar Triple Play. However, I think that Jhoulys Chacin will continue his strong play at home and get the better of his veteran counterpart, who makes his long awaited return from shoulder injury. The Giants’ Madison Bumgarner (0-3, 3.00 ERA) struck out eight over six innings in his final re-hab outing. Chacin (8-7, 4.32) gave up one run off three hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Phillies on Saturday. Chacin has now allowed two or fewer runs in each of his last six starts and he has to be feeling really confident in this spot as he’s a superb 5-2 with a 1.68 ERA at home. I like Chacin to outduel his still untested counterpart. Play on the Padres. Good luck…Larry |
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07-15-17 | Phillies v. Brewers -141 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST). Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Aaron Nola (6-6, 3.59 ERA) who has looked brilliant at times this year and really poor in others. Nola though comes in off a strong outing against the soft-hitting Padres on Saturday, allowing two runs off four hits over eight innings. The home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (8-4, 3.30) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks while striking out six over five innings against New York on Sunday. So far Nelson has 118 strikeouts over 109 innings of work and he has to be feeling very confident in this position as he’s 4-3 with a tiny 2.35 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this year. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 14-37 (-19.4 units) in all “night” games this year, while Milwaukee is 31-24 (+13.4 units) in all night contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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