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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-11-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -137 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin (14-6, 3.59 ERA) who has traded good starts with bad of late. It’s hard to say anything negative about Chacin so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with Jose Quintana (12-9, 4.14) who comes in off consecutive strong outings and who has to be feeling confident that he can keep the good times rolling, as note that he owns a tiny 2.71 ERA in all night games this year. I’ll point out as well that the Cubs are 10-4 in their last 14 National League home games in which they are a favorite in the -135 to -150 range. No upsets here, lay the price, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders +3 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -100 | 1046 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Oakland Raiders (10:20 EST). Self-proclaimed Quarterback Whisperer Jon Gruden is back in Oakland, and Job One will be figuring out what’s going on with franchise signal-caller Derek Carr. Last season Carr’s numbers dropped from 2016 levels in every important category, so a good start is imperative to stop the bleeding that helped produce a 6-10 record after going 12-4 the year before. Expect Gruden’s West Coast offense to squeeze every last drop of blood out of power runner Marshawn Lynch in what may be his final season. Should be interesting in this Monday Night opener when Carr and Gruden go up against a Rams defense that includes three new Pro Bowlers – cornerback Marcus Peters and Aqib Talib, and defensive lineman/provocateur Ndamukong Suh. The Rams came out of nowhere in winning the NFC West last season at 11-5, and should be in the driver’s seat again this year behind emerging third-year QB Jared Goff as the Seahawks and Cardinals don’t appear to have made strides and the 49ers will be under intense pressure to keep things going after last season’s 5-0 finish. Look for Oakland to cover the 3 here in the Raiders’ second-to-last season before the franchise moves to Las Vegas. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-18 | Braves -125 v. Giants | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves 10* (10:15 EST). Yes Dereck Rodriguez has been fantastic in his very first year and yes Sean Newcomb has started to slide at the most inopportune times for the Braves. But I still don’t think it’s going to matter tonight. Newcomb (11-8, 3.92 ERA) has struggled over the last month, but he still comes in with a sharp 7-3, 3.12 ERA on the road this year. Rodriguez (6-2, 2.41) gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to Colorado most recently. It’s hard to say anything negative about Rodriguez, so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. And that’s because note that the Braves are a stellar 60-41 (+20.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Giants are just 26-30 against southpaws. Newcomb gets back on track with a big effort here. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-10-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -135 | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs 8* (8:05 EST). Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley (3-2, 2.12 ERA) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over these very Cubs on Tuesday. Miley’s been unbelievable, but I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The home side counters with the steady Jon Lester (15-5, 3.53) who comes in off consecutive victories and who has been at his best in all night games, going 7-3 with a 2.78 ERA. Note as well that the Cubs are 9-2 in their last 11 night National League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -125 to -145 range. Look for Lester to out-last Miley and for the Cubs to provide the rest. Lay the price, play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-18 | Bears +9 v. Packers | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Chicago Bears (8:20 EST). This is the NFL’s oldest rivalry and I’m expecting a much closer than expected battle between these long-time foes. Note that this is a double-revenge game for the Bears after Green Bay took both games last year. QB Mitchell Trubisky has many new weapons this year for the Bears, including Allen Robinson, Anthony Miller, Trey Burton and Taylor Gabriel. On the other side of the field, as Aaron Rodgers goes, so go the Packers. Rodgers broke his collarbone in Week 6 last year and the Packers season went down the toilet shortly after. Note that the Pack enter the 2018/18 campaign without RB Aaron Jones, who is suspended for the first two games. Ultimately though I think Rodgers is an amazing talent, but I’m just not convinced about the team around him. The Bears have a question mark at QB for the most part, but that’s nothing new, as they’ve had to deal with that issue for several years now. Chicago though has gotten better across its lines and I think it can keep this one competitive late. No upset, but a much closer than expected “nail-biter.” Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks +3 v. Broncos | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 174 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* BLOWOUT is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). Note that this is a rematch of the 2014 Super Bowl. The Seahawks were long seen as strictly a “home team,” but last year they went 5-3 on the road and 9-7 overall. Seattle QB Russell Wilson is a difference maker though and I think he’ll keep his team competitive in this one as well. Last year Wilson had 3,983 passing yards and 34 TD’s. He also led the Hawks rushing with 586 yards and three more scores. The Hawks’ offense got better by drafting Rashaad Penny from San Diego State. The defense finished 11the last year and it has many new faces this season. Still. the Hawks are expected to be competitive on that side of the ball as well. The Broncos’ defense was poor last year too though, allowing 290 yards per game. Note that Denver was just 4-4 at home last year and 5-11 overall. The Broncos were also just 1-3 against NFC teams. Is Case Keenum the answer for Denver under center? Last year he had 3,547 yards and a 22/7 TD/INT for the Vikes, but one has to wonder how much gas is left in the tank, especially in the the thin air of Mile High. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six on the road, while Denver is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home. While the outright upset isn’t out of the question, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-18 | Steelers -5.5 v. Browns | 21-21 | Loss | -105 | 172 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). The Cleveland Browns may have been the most talked about team in the NFL over the offseason. When a team finishes 0-16 there's nowhere to go but up. However, realistically speaking, it will be quite an accomplishment for the 2018 Cleveland Browns to avoid a last place finish in the AFC North for an EIGHTH consecutive season. Cleveland head coach Hue Jackson is 1-31 SU in his two seasons with Cleveland, going 7-24-1 ATS (22.6%). Meanwhile, Pittsburgh's Mike Tomlin doesn't have a losing season on his head coaching resume in his 11 years. Bottom line is this. The last time the Browns won their Week 1 opener was back in 2004 when they beat the Ravens 20-3. The Browns welcome Pittsburgh to Cleveland on Sep 9 on a 13-game Week 1 losing streak, going just 3-10 ATS (average loss being 11.6 PPG) since that 2004 Week 1 win. The fact that the Steelers are 23-3 SU vs the Browns the last 13 seasons means I will not be too concerned about laying less than a TD, even on the road. NFL Week 1 Las Vegas Insider is an 8* on the Pit Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-18 | 49ers +7 v. Vikings | 16-24 | Loss | -140 | 170 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco 49ers (1:00 EST). While I’m not predicting an outright upset, I wouldn’t be shocked if the 49ers did in fact win this one in Week 1. San Francisco was just 6-10 last year, but it enters with high hopes with QB Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Over six games he’d post 1,560 yards and a 7/5 TD/INT. Garoppolo will be keying on Marquise Goodwin, who finished with 962 receiving yards last season. The 49ers averaged 20.7 points last year, but they’e expected to take a big step forward with Pierre Garcon and Trent Taylor as other offensive standouts. The defense allowed 23.9 points and it should only be better with the addition of CB Richard Sherman. The Vikes signed Kirk Cousins in the off-season and he’ll have plenty of targets to utilize, including Stefan Diggs, Adam Theielen and Kyle Rudolph. The Vikes defense allowed just 15.8 PPG last year and the unit will be a strength again this season. San Francisco has nothing to lose though and it won’t simply roll over. The Vikes’ were a dominant team in 2017, but I think that regression could come in 2018. Even with Cousins. I’m banking on this one being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last and as such, I’m going to grab the points. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-18 | Bengals v. Colts OVER 46.5 | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 170 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U PERFECT STORM on the over Bengals/Colts (1:00 EST). These are two teams loaded with people who have something to prove this year. Cincinnati was 7-9 last season, while Indianapolis was 4-12. When these teams played in October, the Bengals came out on top 24-23. Andy Dalton is back under center for Cincinnati, last season he had 3,320 passing yards along with a 25/12 TD/INT. Joe Mixon is the No. 1 RB this year after posting 626 rushing yards in 14 games. The Bengals were decent defensively, allowing just 21.8 PPG and the addition of new defensive co-ordinator Teryl Austin should only make the unit better in 2018 (note though that the Bengals were 30th against the run the last year.) Andrew Luck is back under center for the Colts this season as well. In 2016 he had 4,240 passing yards and a 31/13 TD/INT. Last year Indianapolis was poor defensively, allowing 25.3 PPG. The unit made a couple moves in the off-season, including drafting LB Darius Leonard in the second round, but it’s expected to once again be a weakness for the team this season as well. With two veteran QB’s looking to regain their once dominant form, all signs point to this one flying over sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins OVER 45 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 170 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmakers Error is the over Titans/Dolphins (1:00 EST). Last year Tennessee finished 9-7, beating KC 22-21 in the Wild Card round before then falling 35-14 to New England in the Divisional. Miami was 6-10 last year and missed the playoffs. These teams played last season and the Titans come into this one playing with revenge after falling 16-10 in Miami last October 8th. While that total stayed well below the number in that one and while neither side is known for its explosive offense, I still feel this number is a little low as I expect each to open up the playbook. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota had 3,232 yards, 13 TD’s and 15 INT’s last year. He also had 312 rushing yards and five more major scores on the ground. Derrick Henry had 744 rushing yards and five TD’s last year and he’ll be splitting time with Dion Lewis, who came over from the Pats. Miami will be looking to make it to the playoffs this season as well. Ryan Tannehill suffered a torn ACL during the preseason last August and the Fish would never recover after that. Tannehill is back this season though and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Frank Gore, who had 961 yards for the Colts last year. The biggest question now for the Dolphins remains on the defensive side of the ball. The question marks for each are indeed on the defensive side of the ball, which leaves the door open for these offenses to shine. This number is low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-18 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -125 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. MLB is one of the only sports in which you have to look at each match-up seperately, as for the most part baseball handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers. While I took the Braves last night, there's no question I believe that the home side has the advantage here. The visitors go with Julio Teheran (9-7, 4.05 ERA) who comes in off two straight strong outings and who for the most part has been solid overall for the Braves this season. Note though that he’s just 5-5 with a 4.56 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with the resurgent Clay Buchholz (7-2, 2.05) who gave up one earned run off four hits with two walks while striking out four over five innings in a victory over LA last weekend. As mentioned off the top, I do indeed think that “home field” is a factor here, as note that Buchholz is a sharp 3-0 with a 2.53 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. I think that Teheran’s road inconsistencies come back to bite him here in this difficult venue, while I expect Buchholz to continue to shine and to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-18 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH -1 | Top | 21-0 | Loss | -105 | 145 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Miami Ohio (8:00 EST). Cincinnati is 1-0 and Miami Ohio is 0-1. I look for the home side to lay everything on the line today though as it looks to get off the schneid. The Bearcats come in off a highly satisfying 26-17 road win over UCLA as two TD underdog. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? The Bearcats had 305 yards of offense and they also conceded about 305 yards on defense. Desmon Ridder was just 13 of 24 for 100 yards. The Redhawks were small dogs when their game kicked off against visiting Marshall in Week 1 and Miami Ohio would wind up falling 35-28. The Redhawks though had 445 yards of offense and I expect the unit to build off that performance. QB Gus Ragland was 25 of 46 for 357 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. Jack Sorenson was key in the passing game with three catches for 106 yards and a major score. It’s difficult to win on the road and even more difficult to cover in back to back weekends away from friendly confines. The Bearcats are improved from last year’s poor team, but not that much. Look for the “hungrier” home side to find a way to get the job done. Play on Miami Ohio. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-18 | Fresno State +2.5 v. Minnesota | 14-21 | Loss | -110 | 145 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Fresno State (7:30 EST). Fresno State annihilated Idaho 79-13 last Saturday and while clearly the Bulldogs will face a much stiffer test this time around, I still think that the visitors high-octane offense will prove to be too much for the Gophers to keep up to down the stretch. Fresno State posted 486 yards total offense last week, including 239 and seven rushing TD’s on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion had 207 yards passing, while Romelio Harris had 47 yards on four carries. The Bulldogs would go on to allow 307 yards, including 205 through the air. Minnesota enters off a 48-10 win over New Mexico State last Thursday. The Golden Gophers went up 35-10 at half time and then cruised to relatively easy victory on the second. The Gophers allowed just 38 rushing yards, but note they’d get torched through the air by allowing 271 passing yards. QB Zack Annexstad was just 16 of 33 for 222 yards and two TD’s. I think Minnesota is going to be in for a shock today though facing McMaryion and company. The Fresno State dual threat offense proves to be too much for Minnesota to keep up with down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-18 | Indians v. Blue Jays OVER 9.5 | 9-8 | Win | 104 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the over Jays/Indians (1:05 EST). I have zero confidence in either of these starting pitchers and I look for these talented line-ups to take advantage. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Plutko (4-5, 5.04 ERA) who returned to the starting rotation in mid August and who has struggled since. Unfortunately for Plutko a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling, as note that he’s already a poor 1-3 with a ballooned 5.60 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Sean Reid-Foley (1-2, 5.51) who has looked decent in Triple-A, but poor in the big leagues. Note that he’s just 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA at home as well. No need to overthink this one. Neither of these guys has shown anything of late to make me think that they’ll suddenly “flip a switch” here. I do indeed believe each will “get the hook” early, which in turn will help in pushing this total over the number once it’s all said and done. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-18 | Memphis v. Navy +3.5 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 141 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Navy (3:30 EST). Memphis comes in complacent here in my opinion after its 66-14 home win over Mercer in its season Opener. Navy on the other hand comes in desperate after falling 59-41 in Hawaii last weekend. Also note that this is a revenge game for the Midshipmen after they lost 30-27 to the Tigers last year. Memphis QB Brady White was 22 of 28 for 358 yards and five TD’s last week. RB Darrell Henderson went for 76 yards, while Damonte Coxie had four catches for 79 yards. Last year the offense was a force, averaging 45.5 PPG, but the unit will take a step back with a few new faces at key positions this season. The Tigers were horrible defensively though in 2017 by conceding 32.5 PPG and I think they’ll have their hands full today with this revenge minded and winless Navy side. Navy utilizes three different QB’s, as Malcom Perry, Garret Lewis and Zach Abey will once again all see time under center today. Last year Perry had 1,182 rushing yards and he had 108 in the loss to Hawaii. The Midshipmen averaged 30.5 PPG last season and while they only allowed 26.3 PPG on the defensive side, clearly the unit has some work to do after stumbling against Hawaii’s arial attack. But Navy always plays tough at home and after the Week 1 setback, this becomes a “must win” for all intents and purposes for the Midshipmen. Last year the Tigers allowed an average of 191 rushing yards per game and last season Navy led the nation in rushing. Grab the points, play on Navy. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-18 | Colorado v. Nebraska -4.5 | Top | 33-28 | Loss | -110 | 141 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM on Nebraska (3:30 EST). Colorado is 1-0, while Nebraska opens up its 2018/19 campaign after its game was postponed last week. The Buffs enter off a 45-13 win over Colorado State, but note that they’ve lost four of their last five on the road. Last week QB Steven Montez had 33 yards, four TD’s and an INT in the win over the Rams. The ground game looked strong as well with 258 yards, with Travon McMillan leading the charge with 103 yards and a TD. The defense looked sharp, but clearly the unit faces a much more difficult task in Week 2. Nebraska’s Week 1 contest was postponed due to poor weather, so the Huskers come in with a ton of anticipation and energy. After losing four straight home games, you can bet the team will be looking to reverse their fortunes here. Nebraska features an experienced offensive line. The defense was a weak point last season, but it returns many starters and it’s expected to take a big leap in the right direction this year. Note as well that the Buffs have failed to cover in six of their last seven as a underdog of three points or more on the road. Nebraska’s advantage in the trenches turns out to be the difference though. Lay the points, play on Nebraska. Good luck…Larry |
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09-08-18 | Arizona +4.5 v. Houston | 18-45 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Arizona (12:00 EST). Clearly the outright win is not out of the question here, but I’m still going to recommend grabbing the points in the end. Arizona comes in “hungrier” here after falling 28-23 to BYU last week. The Wildcats will be focused and desperate to break a three-game road slide. QB Khalil Tate had 197 yards and a TD last week. The ground game produced 129 yards and JJ Taylor leads the way so far with 85 yards and a TD. Houston came out on top of Rice 45-27 last week and while the Cougars have won ten of 12 at home, I think they’re going to stumble here against this hungry visiting side. Last week QB D’Eriq King had 320 yards and three TD’s. The Houston ground game had 257 yards, but the defense was pretty unremarkable considering the opponent. As mentioned off the top, I think Arizona is the “hungrier” side in this one. I also think that Arizona has the much better QB. These two major factors collide making the Wildcats the correct call. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-07-18 | TCU v. SMU +21.5 | Top | 42-12 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on SMU (8:00 EST). I’m grabbing the points on the big hungry home dog on Friday night. The Horned Frogs come in complacent after their 55-7 season opening win over Southern. Conversely, the Mustangs do indeed come in hungry after falling 46-23 to North Texas on the road. Note that this is a revenge game as well for SMU after it fell 56-36 on the road at TCU last year. Last year TCU averaged 33.7 PPG and it looked pretty good against a weak Jaguars defense last week. Shawn Robinson was 17 of 24 for 182 yards and three TD’s. The Horned Frogs have three strong RB’s including Darius Anderson, who had 768 rushing yards last year. Last season the Horned Frogs allowed just 19 PPG and the defense will be a strength again this year. SMU clearly has its hands full. And recent history is not in its favor either as it comes in having lost six straight in this series. But I’m not calling for an outright, straight-up victory here. I just think that SMU has improved enough this season to be much more competitive this time around. The Mustangs averaged 37.8 PPG last year, but they’d also concede 36.7. QB Ben Hicks had 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Last season he had 3,500 passing yards and a strong 33/12 TD/INT. As mentioned above, the outright win is not on the table here whatsoever. I do think though that this improved SMU side can catch TCU a bit complacent this season and I look for it keep this one interesting until the third quarter. Grab the points, play on SMU. Good luck…Larry |
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09-07-18 | Braves +121 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 56 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves 10* (9:40 EST). Kevin Gausman has been on a tear for the Braves and I think he offers great value in a minor upset role on Friday night. Gausman (9-9, 3.78) comes in off two straight gems, pushing his record with Atlanta to 5-1 with a victory most recently over the Pirates. Note that Gausman comes in sporting a tiny 3.60 ERA on the road as well. Clearly it won’t be easy, as Diamondbacks’ starter Patrick Corbin (10-5, 3.06) comes in hot as well, most recently going five scoreless against the Dodgers on Saturday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Corbin, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Gausman can match Corbin inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the under-valued underdog. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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09-07-18 | Dodgers -145 v. Rockies | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers 8* (8:40 EST). All things being equal with this one being at Coors Field, I still think that Clayton Kershaw has a major advantage in this match-up. Kershaw (6-5, 2.40 ERA) comes in off consecutive strong outings and for the most part he has been sharp since returning from injury in late July. Kershaw has to be feeling confident here as he’s 3-2 with a tiny 1.78 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Jon Gray (11-7, 4.70) who after a shaky start to the 2018 campaign has admittedly looked better of late. Note though that the Rockies are a poor 2-8 in their last ten night home games in which they’re an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I think Gray is getting too much respect here. Look for Kershaw to step up and take advantage and lay this price with confidence. Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-07-18 | Phillies -152 v. Mets | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies 8* (7:05 EST). While he came up short in his last start, I think Aaron Nola gets right back on track here in this favorable matchup and venue. And while he looked good in his last outing, I think Stephen Matz is primed for a predicable letdown tonight. Nola (15-4, 2.23 ERA) gave up four runs off five hits with two walks while striking out 11 over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Despite the sub-par effort Nola still comes in sporting an elite 2.23 ERA and 188 K’s over 181.2 innings of work. Note as well that Nola has been “lights out” on the road with a 6-3, 2.15 ERA thus far. Matz (5-11, 4.20) gave up one run over seven innings in a win over San Francisco on Saturday. While he’s looked better of late, note that he still owns a shaky 4.20 ERA and 8.7 K/9 and 3.2 BB/9. Also note that he’s an unremarkable 4-5 with a 5.01 ERA in all night games this year. I like Nola to come in with a chip on his shoulder and to continue his amazing season. All things considered, I feel we’re getting great value on Philadelphia in this matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles OVER 46 | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -100 | 272 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Falcons/Eagles (8:20 EST). I’m expecting some offensive fireworks between these hungry teams on Opening night. When these teams last met on January 13th in the NFC Divisional Playoffs, it was Philadelphia who came out on top of the lower-scoring 15-10 affair. Atlanta will be out to avenge that setback and to set a tone early after a difficult 2017/18 campaign. The Falcons certainly won’t be “sitting back” and looking for the Eagles’ methodical offense to make the first mistake. Instead the Falcons will be pushing the pace from start to finish in this one as they try to play to their strengths on offense. Last year Matt Ryan missed Julio Jones from the 2-yard line in the closing moments of the playoff loss to the Eagles. Rayn had 4,095 passing yards, 20 TD’s and 12 INT’s last year. Note though that ATL led the league in dropped passed with 30. Despite the “down” season for everyone, the offense is loaded with talent, including Jones and Mohammed Sanu. Atlanta was decent defensively last year as well, conceding just 19.7 PPG. Deion Jones led the team with 138 tackles and three picks. If Carson Wentz doesn’t suit up for the Eagles, obviously Nick Foles is the next best thing. In three playoff games Foles completed 72.6 percent of his passes. TE Zach Ertz and WR Nelson Agholor will be leaned upon here with Alshon Jeffery shelved with injury. Fortunately for the offense, it has arguably the best line in the league. The defense was decent for Philadelphia last year, but the losses of DL Beau Allen and DE Vinny Curry to free agency are significant. I think it’s worth to note that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in five of its last six games in the month of September, while Philadelphia has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of its last seven “Thursday night” contests. Do either of these stats really matter? Well, it certainly doesn’t hurt. I’m expecting a wide open “shoot-out,” play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-06-18 | Padres v. Reds -150 | 6-2 | Loss | -150 | 27 h 46 m | Show | |
My 7* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Reds (6:40 EST). I don’t normally lay chalk of this size, but in this case I think it’s warranted. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Eric Lauer (5-7, 5.01 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate no-decision against the Rockies on Thursday, allowing one off no hits with two walks while striking out two over five innings. The rookie has for the most part struggled this year though, note that he’s just 2-3 with a 5.98 ERA on the road so far. The home side counters with the under-the-radar Luis Castillo (8-11, 4.83), who after a disastrous first half, has looked a lot better over the second. Since the Mid-summer classic he’s now posted a 3.15 ERA to go along with 46 strikeouts over 40 innings of work. Note as well that Castillo is 5-4 with a very respectable 3.69 ERA at home as well. As mentioned off the top, I don’t typically lay chalk of this size, but everything points to a blowout from start to finish here. I’m laying the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-05-18 | Giants +157 v. Rockies | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST). Looks like a great spot to pull the trigger on the underdog in my opinion. The visitors go with Andrew Suarez (6-9, 4.19 ERA) who gave up no runs off two hits over seven innings, while striking out five and walking none. It was his second straight outing in which he’s gone seven innings without allowing a run and to go along with his respectable ERA, Suarez also sports a sharp 1.27 WHIP and 113/34 K/W over 133.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Antonio Senzatela (4-5, 4.88) who gave up one run over six innings in a loss to San Diego on Friday. In his previous start he was rocked for seven runs over four innings. So far Senzatela has an unimpressive ERA, to go along with a poor 1.37 WHIP and 46 K’s over 62.2 innings of work. For the most MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Senzatela is getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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09-05-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -155 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -155 | 30 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago White Sox (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jordan Zimmermann (6-6, 4.22 ERA) who gave up four runs off three hits with one walk over six innings in a no-decision to the Yankees on Friday. Zimmermann for the most part has been a disappointment, especially on the road where he’s just 2-3 with a 4.91 ERA. The home side counters with Michael Kopech (1-0, 0.82) who gave up one hit while striking out one over three scoreless innings in a rain-shortened outing against Boston on Friday. Koepech comes in rested (second straight rain-shortened outing) and on top form and I look for him to easily out-duel the “on again, off again” Zimmermann, who has been downright terrible on the road. Lay the price, play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-05-18 | Mets v. Dodgers -164 | 7-3 | Loss | -164 | 29 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the LA Dodgers (7:35 EST). As good as Zach Wheeler has been of late, I think he’ll finally stumble in this difficult venue and against this difficult opponent and counterpart. Wheeler (9-7, 3.37 ERA) gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to the Giants on Friday. Note though that he had zero strikeouts. Wheeler was just 3-7 with a 5.21 ERA last season, so clearly the fourth year pro has started to come into his own. Regardless, I think he’ll have his hands full here vs. the Dodgers’ Hyun Jin-Ryu. Ryu is so far 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings while striking out five and walking none in a no-decision to Arizona on Friday. Over 52.1 innings of work Ryu has the sharp ERA and tiny 0.95 WHIP. Also note that Ryu is 3-1 with a 1.51 ERA t home. I have a hard time seeing the anemic Mets’ mustering much offense tonight. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-18 | Tigers v. White Sox -137 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -137 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago White Sox 10* (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Francisco Liriano (3-9, 4.96 ERA) who most recently was rocked for five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks on Thursday. After a promising Spring training, Liriano has been a major disappointment since, especially on the road with a 1-6, 4.94 ERA. The home side counters with Lucas Giolito (10-9, 5.66) who gave up one run off two hits with eight K’s over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Boston on Thursday. In 47 innings since the All Star game Giolito has 47 K’s. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Liriano could in fact be getting far too much respect from the oddsmakers tonight. Look for Giolito to continue his progression and lay the price with confidence. Play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-18 | Phillies -150 v. Marlins | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies 8* (7:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (9-9, 3.54 ERA) who gave up four runs off four this with three strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision against Washington on Wednesday. 44 of the 75 pitches he threw were for strikes. Note that Arrieta owns a 7-5, 2.91 ERA in all evening games this year as well. The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Richards (3-7, 4.26) who gave up three runs off three hits with two walks over 5.2 innings against Boston on Wednesday. The rookie has been decent this season and while he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he’s still just 1-4 with a 4.95 ERA in all night games. I like the Phillies’ veteran here. Arrieta has the track record and pedigree to finish up the regular season strong and I look for him to make the most of this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-18 | Reds v. Pirates -150 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates 8* (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Cody Reed (0-1, 3.26 ERA) who gave up one run over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Thursday. He looked decent in the outing, but clearly the book is still out on the young right-hander as he tries to navigate his way through the end of the season. The home side counters with Jose Musgrove (5-8, 3.80) who gave up five runs and struck out seven over six innings in a loss to the Cardinals on Thursday. It was likely his worst outing of the season and despite the shaky performance, he still sports an elite 80/21 K/W so far. Note as well that while he’s struggled in all day games (6.21 ERA), Musgrove has been sharp in all night contests (2.58). Bank on Musgrove calmly getting back on track in familiar surroundings and for the Pirates to provide the rest in this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech +7.5 v. Florida State | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 35 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Virginia Tech (8:00 EST). Virginia Tech was dominant on the defensive side of the ball last year, but it’s going to have to make adjustments with many new faces throughout the unit this season. The Hokies though return their starting QB and I think he’ll help his team keep this one competitive. Last year Virginia Tech finished 9-4 in the regular season. Florida State was 7-6. The Hokies return QB Josh Jackson, who had 2,991 passing yards and a 20/9 TD:INT ratio last season. Overall the offense averaged 28.2 PPG last season, but that mark is expected to go up with Jackson’s expected progression. The defense allowed just 14.8 PPG and while many of the key pieces are gone from the unit that posted those numbers, note that safety Reggie Floyd is back after he finished third on the team with 72 tackles, while also posting three INT’s. The Seminoles welcome back Deondre Francois as their QB, as he missed most of late year with injury. He’ll be leaning heavily on RB Cam Akers to start, as he finished with 5.3 YPC average. FSU allowed just 21.2 PPG last year and the defense should be a strength this year as well. However, as mentioned off the top I think that Jackson is going to have his opportunities tonight. I’ll point out as well that FSU is 0-6-2 ATS in its last eight conference games, while VT is 5-2-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. Bank on a much closer than expected battle and grab as many points as you can. Play on Virginia Tech. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-18 | Mets v. Dodgers -130 | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Dodgers (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jacob deGrom (8-8, 1.68 ERA) who continues to dominate on a night in and night out basis. Clearly he’s pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but as is so often the case, I think deGrom will struggle with run support again in this one. And that’s because the home side goes with Alex Wood (8-6, 3.42) who comes in off back-to-back gems and who seems to be getting stronger as the season wears on. Note that Wood is 6-5 with a 2.59 ERA in all night games. Note as ell that New York is a poor 2-7 in its last nine night road games as an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. deGrom throws another strong outing, but it’s not enough as Wood matches pace. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-18 | Yankees +105 v. A's | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the New York Yankees (4:05 EST). I think the hard-hitting visiting side offers great value in this spot. The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia (7-5, 3.36 ERA) who looked decent in his first start back from the DL vs. the Orioles on Friday. And overall this year Sabathia has once again looked strong, especially in all day games with a 2-1, 2.09 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with Trevor Cahill (5-3, 3.60) who for the most part has been excellent this season, but who comes in off a poor start his last time out. While the veteran has exceeded expectations to this point for the A’s, note that Oakland is still a poor 1-7 in its last eight day home games in which it’s a favorite in the +100 to +125 range. I’m banking on Sabathia out-duelling Cahill and I look for the visitors to take take advantage. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-18 | Phillies -145 v. Marlins | 1-3 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:10 EST). I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound that what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (9-9, 4.05 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Jays on Sunday, allowing two runs off three hits while striking out six over five innings in the victory. Over 129 innings he owns a 1.26 WHIP and 142/53 K/W. Note that he’s been especially good on the road with a sharp 2.99 ERA as well. The home side counters with the volatile Jose Urena (4-12, 4.56) who has been re-activated after his six game suspension. Urena has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s still not been spectacular. Note as well that he’s just 1-9 with a 4.95 ERA at home. When trying to properly assess a starter, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Velasquez will easily be able to out duel Urena, who will be on a count in his first start back. Great price, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU OVER 46 | Top | 17-33 | Win | 100 | 32 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the over Miami/LSU (7:30 EST). It’s No. 8 vs. No. 25 at AT& Stadium in Dallas in a beginning of season Sunday night game. Last year the ‘Canes were 10-3, while the Tigers were 9-4. I think these two hungry teams battle tooth and nail and I look for this total to sneak above the posted number as it comes down the stretch. Last year Miami Florida averaged 29.1 PPG and it should be even better this season with the return of senior QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 passing yards. The Hurricanes gave up just 21 points last year and the defense is poised for another big campaign in 2018/19 as well. However LSU won’t be rolling over here and I think that the duo of Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow have enough talent under center to keep this one competitive. Note that the Tigers averaged 27.2 PPG las year and they conceded 18.9. These teams come in off decent defensive campaigns, but I think this first game has “shootout” written all over it. Note that Miami has seen the total go over in seven of its last ten neutral field games when the total in the contest is between 45.5 and 49, while LSU has seen the total eclipse the number in six of its last ten in the same position. This number is low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-18 | Diamondbacks +148 v. Dodgers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). I think that Clay Buchholz and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers” chance in this one. Buchholz (7-2, 2.07 ERA) Comes in off back to back gems, moving his WHIP to a tiny 1.09. The veteran has been a revelation and note that he’s 4-2 with a 1.73 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Walker Buehler (6-4, 3.02) who comes in off a decent outing against the Rangers last week, but who comes in with a poor 5.97 ERA in all day contests to this point. I’ll point out as well that Arizona is now 8-2 in its last ten National League road day games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +150 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-18 | Mariners v. A's -149 | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s (4:05 EST). One of these veterans has been exceptional all year, while the other has struggled from the “get go.” Suffice it to say, I think this trend continues here. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Felix Hernandez (8-12, 5.49 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” this year and who has been downright awful on the road with a 4-7, 6.95 ERA to this point. The home side counters with the steady Edwin Jackson (4-3, 3.03) who likely is pitching “over his head” right now, but regardless of that, note that he’s 3-2 with a tiny 2.68 ERA at home this year. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Hernandez is in fact getting too much respect considering how terrible he’s been on the road. Lay the price with confidence, play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-18 | Cubs +125 v. Phillies | 8-1 | Win | 125 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs 8* (1:35 EST). A couple of red-hot starters go head-to-head in this one and I’m banking on the visitors scoring a minor upset here against the white hot Aaron Nola. And that’s because Chicago hands the ball to the equally as scorching Jon Lester (14-5, 3.67 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings, albeit a no-decision against the Mets in his last one. Lester though has been unstoppable on the road this season with the 9-2, 2.95 ERA record thus far. Nola (15-3, 2.10) comes in off consecutive strong outings against the Nationals and he is a prime candidate for Cy Young this season. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nola, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Lester can match Nola inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the value swings to the hungry dog. Play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | Michigan v. Notre Dame +2 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 315 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Notre Dame (7:30 EST). Michigan comes into the 2018/19 season ranked No. 14, while Notre Dame is ranked No. 12. The Wolverines finished 8-5 last year, capped off with a disappointing 26-19 loss to South Carolina in the Outback Bowl. The Irish were 10-2 last year and they beat LSU 21-17 in the Citrus Bowl. Michigan went 0-3 in conference play against ranked teams last year, getting smashed 97-43 collectively. The Wolverines were sloppy too, committing 21 turnovers on the season, leaving them -4 in the takeaway/giveaway ratio. Shea Patterson had 2,259 passing yards for the Wolverines with 17 TD’s and nine INT’s over seven games. He was injured and Brandon Peters would come in to go for 672 yards, four TD’s and two INT’s. Karan Higdon was a bright spot on the ground with 994 yards and 11 TD’s last season. Notre Dame head coach Brian Kelly reached the double-win plateau for a third-straight time under his reign last season. Last year the offense averaged 34.2 PPG, ranked 24th in the FBS. The offense returns nine starters, meaning it should only be better this season. The defense was the strength though and it will be again, finishing 31st in the country last year by allowing just 21.5 PPG. As good as Patterson looked before his injury last year, the Irish still have the better, more experienced offense in this matchup. I think Notre Dame comes out firing on all cylinders and uses its superior defense/offense to come out on top of what should be an entertaining affair. Play on the Irish. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | SMU v. North Texas -3 | 23-46 | Win | 100 | 314 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on North Texas (7:30 EST). SMU was 7-5 last year, before getting crushed by Louisiana Tech in the Frisco Bowl, while UNT went 9-5 overall and lost to Troy in the New Orleans Bowl. Note that this is a revenge game for the Mean Green after they fell by 22 points at SMU last year. Sonny Dykes is now head coach for SMU. The Mustangs averaged 36.2 PPG last year, led by QB Ben Hicks who had 33 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Xavier Jones, Braeden West and Ke’Mon Freeman combined for more than 2,000 rushing yards. The defense was terrible though, allowing 38.6 PPG, and it’s going to be a weak point against this season as well. After going 1-11 in 2015, the Mean Green went 9-5 last year, winning the Conference USA’s West Division. QB Mason Fine is among 17 returning starters. Last year UNT averaged 35.5 PPG and Fine threw at least three TD strikes in three of the last five games during the 2017 season. I’ll point out that North Texas is 7-2 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while SMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four on the road. North Texas is on the rise and I expect it to come out and put the foot on the gas from start to finish. And that doesn’t bode well for this questionable Mustangs’ defensive unit. Lay the points, play on North Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | Reds v. Cardinals -123 | 4-0 | Loss | -123 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST). The Cards hammered the Reds 12-5 yesterday and I think a similar final result is in store on Saturday as well. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Luis Castillo (7-11, 5.07 ERA) who after a great stretch of posting a 2.10 ERA over five starts, took a step back in his last outing against the Cubs on the road. And now here’s another difficult National League road venue to contend with, as note that Castillo is a poor 2-7 with a 6.55 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Daniel Poncedeleon (0-0 2.08) who has been effective in both his time in Triple-A and in the big leagues. Over 92 innings with Memphis this year he posted a 9-3 record, a 2.15 ERA and a .198 BAA. I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is a horrible 21-40 (-14.6 units) this season against the division, while St. Louis is 37-27 (+7.2 units) in the same position. I think Castillo’s struggles on the road continue and I look for the young Poncedeleon to make the most of this opportunity. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | Red Sox v. White Sox +1.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* RUN-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Chicago White Sox (7:10 EST). While the outright win is clearly not out of the question, I think the home side on the run-line offers unbelievable value. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (11-3, 3.44 ERA) who made a successful re-hab start in Double-A Portland on Monday. Rodriguez has been solid overall this year, but he’ll be on a leash in his first start back from injury. The home side counters with the red hot Carlos Rodon (6-3, 2.70) who gave up two runs off two hits with four walks while striking out two over seven innings in a win over the hard-hitting Yankees on Monday. The hard-throwing southpaw is getting better as the season wares on, now with a 2.70 ERA and 71 K’s over 93.2 innings of work. And note that Rodon is unbeaten at home so far with a 3-0, 1.71 ERA record thus far. Rodon beat the Yanks and he has more than enough to get the better of the Red Sox right now as well. Rodgriguez has been fantastic this season, but until he gets out there on the mound, Boston isn’t quite sure where his progression is at the moment after so much time off. Grab the 1.5 runs and the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | Marshall v. Miami-OH -2.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -113 | 312 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Blowout is on Miami Ohio (3:30 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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09-01-18 | North Carolina +8.5 v. California | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 311 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on North Carolina (4:00 EST). Am I calling for an outright upset here? I am not. I do think though that the Tar Heels will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. UNC turns to QB Nathan Elliot, who had 926 yards, ten TD’s and five INT’s after taking over the starting job half way through last year. Elliot is a dual threat QB (had 134 yards on the ground) and he’s expected to take a major step forward this season. Elliot’s favorite target will surely be Anthony Ratliff-Williams who had 630 receiving yards. Note that Jordan Brown and Michael Carter would combined for nearly 1,200 rushing yards and 337 receiving yards. The Golden Bears jumped out to an early 3-0 start last year, but then a rash of injuries led to a 2-7 finish. QB Ross Bowers is back, along with RB Patrick Larid and four dynamic WR’s. Both teams have big bounce back expectations this season and I think they’re much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. In a tight battle, grab as many points as you can. Play on UNC. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-18 | Washington +3 v. Auburn | 16-21 | Loss | -120 | 311 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* AFTERNOON ROUT is on Washington (3:30 EST). Auburn won the SEC West last year, but Georgia won the Conference and Alabama went on to capture the National title. Washington went to the Fiesta Bowl last season where it fell to Penn State. QB Jake Browning is back for his senior year to lead a team which went 10-2. Browning completed 68.5 percent of his passes for 2,719 yards, 19 TD’s and five INT’s. RB Myles Gaskin had 1,380 rushing yards and 21 TD’s. The offensive line will be a a strength as it’s a unit with has a collective 97 starts worth of experience. Auburn returns three of four defensive line starters from last year as the Tigers ranked 11th in the country in scoring defense, giving up just 18.5 PPG. Auburn’s question marks are on offense though. QB Jarrett Stidham simply doesn’t have the same repertoire as Browning in my opinion and despite how awesome the Tigers should be on the defensive side of the ball, I think the visitors high-flying offense will prove to be just too much for them to keep up to. Grab the points, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-18 | Mets v. Giants -117 | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). Zack Wheeler has been “lights out” for the Mets of late, but I think he’ll finally stumble in this difficult venue. Wheeler (9-6, 3.46 ERA) went seven scoreless in a victory over Washington on Saturday. Wheeler has been exceptional overall this year, but I’ll point out that the Mets are a horrible 14-21 (-8.3 units) against southpaws this season. San Francisco is just 67-68 overall this season, but it’s 38-28 (+6.4 units) at home. Southpaw Andrew Suarez (5-9, 4.42) comes in off his best start of the year, allowing three hits with three walks over seven scoreless in a victory over the Rangers on Saturday. It was the second time in his last three trips to the hill that Suarez has blanked his opponent. The rookie’s been far from perfect this season, but he’s been at his best at home, as evidenced by his very respectable 3.19 ERA thus far. I like the Giants and Suarez in this slight upset spot, as regression seems imminent for the over-achieving Wheeler. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-18 | Mariners v. A's -133 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland A’s (10:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake (8-8, 4.03 ERA) who comes in off a loss to Arizona on Sunday after allowing five earned runs off seen hits over six innings. Leake has been above average overall, but not spectacular whatsoever (especially in all night games where he’s just 4-5 with a 4.96 ERA.) The home side counters with Mike Fiers (10-6, 3.15) who continues to dominate for the A’s since coming over from the Tigers. Fiers is now 7-2 with a 2.49 ERA in all home situations and I see no reason to believe that he’s slowing down any time soon. I think that it’s actually Leake that’s getting far too much respect here. Lay this price with confidence, play on the Athletics. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-18 | Colorado State v. Colorado -6.5 | 13-45 | Win | 100 | 293 h 57 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Colorado (9:30 EST). Colorado State is already 0-1 to open the 2018/19 campaign and I think it’ll struggle here as well. Colorado will look to take advantage and to keep the Centennial Trophy for a fourth straight season. The Rams looked horrible in their 43-34 home loss to Hawaii last weekend, falling behind by a whopping 30 points at one point. QB KJ Carta-Samuels had 537 yards, five TD’s and an INT in the loss. Colorado State had 653 yards of total offense, but it committed 12 costly penalties on the night. The defense was a disaster though, allowing 418 passing yards and 617 total yards. In 2016 Colorado had ten wins, but last year it went just 5-7. Clearly the Buffs are hoping for a much better result in 2018/19. QB Steven Montez is back for his second season, last year he had 2,975 yards and 18 TD’s. He also rushed for 338 rushing yards and completed almost 61 percent of his passes. RB Phillip Lindsay had 1,474 yards and 14 TD’s in 2017. The Buffs also feature three competent receivers in Kabion Ento, Juwann Winfree and Jay McIntyre, who had 28 catches for 396 yards last year. Colorado was poor defensively last year, but new LB’s Drew Lewis and Rick Gamboa should help the unit make strides this season. I’ll point out that Colorado is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five in this series, while Colorado State is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven neutral site affairs. I believe the stability that Colorado has at QB winds up being the difference in this one. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-18 | Pirates v. Braves -112 | 3-2 | Loss | -112 | 10 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I don’t think the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (10-9, 3.49 ERA) who has been solid overall this year and who is difficult to say anything negative about. Taillon’s been fantastic, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. I like the Braves to bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-4 home loss to the Cubs. Anibal Sanchez (6-5, 3.05 ERA) gets the nod and he most recently gave up one run off four hits with two walks over six innings in a win over Miami on Saturday. Sanchez exited with a ham string issue, but he’s been given the green light to go tonight and I think he’ll take advantage of familiar surroundings. Note that Pittsburgh is just 31-36 this season after a loss, while Atlanta is 35-23 (+11.5 units) in the same position. I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-18 | Syracuse -6 v. Western Michigan | Top | 55-42 | Win | 100 | 291 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Syracuse (6:00 EST). This is the first meeting ever between the teams. Syracuse will be looking for a better result early this season after going 4-8 last year. Western Michigan was 6-6. The Orange are expected to compete for a Bowl position this season as they have eight starters back on offense and six on defense. Syracuse QB is senior Eric Dungey, who had 2,495 yards, 14 TD’s and nine INT’s last season. The Orange had a more difficult schedule last year, so coach Dino Baber is expecting major progression in his third-year running the show. Defensively the team was a bit of a mess, but the ACC is unforgiving. However as mentioned above, the defensive unit should also be improved with six starters returning. Overall the Orange were ranked 23rd in the nation in total offense last year and 106th in total defense. WMU was 6-6 last year, but it wasn’t enough to get a bowl invite. The defense was horrible as well and it returns just five starters this season. The only way the unit can go is up this year, but the defensive side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak area. The offense returns eight starters, including QB Jon Waasink, who had 1,411 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s last season. RB Javion Franklin, who had 1,200 yards rushing last year is gone though and he really did make opposing defenses “honest.” Last year WMU was ranked 79th in the country in scoring and 55th in total yards allowed. It’s the ACC vs. the MAC. I think Syracuse has the better and more competent QB in this matchup. The Orange were a well-oiled offensive machine last year and I believe they’ll be too much for WMU to hang with down the stretch. Lay the points, play on Syracuse. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-18 | Mariners v. A's -115 | 7-1 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 42 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland A’s. 10* (10:05 EST). I don’t think that that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Wade LeBlanc (7-3, 3.92 ERA) who went six innings and gave up one in a no-decision to the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Note though that prior to that LeBlanc had been rocked for 15 earned runs over 20 innings. The home side counters with the capable Frankie Montas (5-3, 3.75) who has been called back up to the big leagues to make this start. Montas has excelled in the majors when given the opportunity this year and there’s no reason no to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to to carry that momentum over here as well (note that he’s 3-0 with a with a 3.14 ERA in all night games as well this year.) I’ll point out that Seattle is just 11-14 in August right now, while Oakland is surging in the other direction with a 17-7 record so far this month. Look for Montas to once again make the most of the opportunity presented to him. Play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-18 | Northwestern v. Purdue -3.5 | 31-27 | Loss | -102 | 268 h 43 m | Show | |
: My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:00 EST). These Big Ten Conference West Division foes battle on Opening night. Northwestern finished 10-3 last year and with a victory over Kentucky in the Music City Bowl, while Purdue went 7-6, capped off with a 38-35 victory over Arizona in the Foster Farms Bowl. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Boilermakers, as the Wildcats have won four straight in the series, including a 23-13 home victory last November. Northwestern was 7-2 in league play last year and it finished 57th in the nation in scoring with 29.2 PPG. The defense was also solid by conceding 20.1 PPG. QB Clayton Thorson was an unimpressive 2,844 yards with 15 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season. Jeremy Larkin had 503 yards and five TD’s on the ground. Jeff Brohm turned Purdue around last year and I think he’ll take the team a step further in 2018/19. Note that the Boilermakers had five straight losing seasons before last year’s winning one. Note as well that all five starters on the offensive line are back, which is huge, especially in the early going. Purdue also features two fantastic QB’s and a large stable of competent RB’s. If the defensive side of the ball can figure things out, then the Boilermakers really will make some serious noise this season. Last year Purdue put up 25.2 PPG, as Elijah Sindelar had 2,099 yards with 18 TD’s and seven INT’s. David Blough had 1,103 yards, nine TD’s and four INT’s. Markell Jones would contribute 566 yards on the ground and a TD. The revenge factor, combined with the dynamic QB duo of Sindelar and Blough make the home side the correct call in this Week 1 match-up. Lay the points, play on Purdue. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest v. Tulane +7 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 268 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Tulane (8:00 EST). Wake returns 15 starters this year, with nine on the offensive side of the ball. Last year The Demon Deacons here 8-5 and finished averaging 35.3 points. True freshman QB Sam Hartman has won the job at QB position though and suffice it to say, I expect the rookie to struggle in his first game. While Wake is loaded with offensive talent, the defense remains a bit of a question mark. Just as it was last year too. The Green Wave return nine starters on offense last year as well. Tulane averaged 27.5 points last year. The option offense took a few games to get going, but note that the Green Wave were a perfect 4-0 when putting up 250 yards or more on the ground last season. QB Jon Banks enters his senior year and as the second leading rusher from a season ago. Ultimately I believe that Tulane has a very real shot at winning this one outright. The Green Wave’s offense is just as dynamic as Wake’s and I think it’ll give the visitors everything they can handle tonight. While the outright win isn’t out of the question, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Tulane. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-18 | Cubs v. Braves -130 | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 28 h 13 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST Here’s another matchup on the mound where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Montgomery (4-4, 3.62 ERA) who returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. Overall Montgomery’s been sharp for Chicago, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (10-8, 2.67) who took a loss against the Marlins on Friday despite allowing just one run off two hits over six innings while striking out eight. Foltynewicz has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball of late, having posted a 1.38 ERA and a strong 36/8 K/W over 32.2 innings in August. And note that he’s been particularly dominant at home with the 4-2, 2.63 ERA to this point. I think Montgomery comes in under a pitch count and that leaves the door open for Foltynewicz to continue his stellar surge in friendly confines. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -131 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 8* (7:15 EST). Here’s a matchup where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (5-7, 3.56 ERA) who comes in off a poor outing against the Brewers on Friday, allowing four runs off six hits over four innings. The home side counters with John Gant (5-5, 3.56) who hasn’t been perfect this year, but he does own a very respectable ERA to to go along with a 1.23 WHIP over 84 innings of work. Gant has been at his best at home as well with a 3.15 ERA to this point. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. I’m banking on Gant out-duelling Musgrove. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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08-29-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants +106 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (13-7, 4.59 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off seven hits with five innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. To go along with his bloated ERA, he also sports a poor 1.45 WHIP (also a ballooned 5.75 ERA away from friendly confines.) The home side counters with the red hot Dereck Rodriguez (6-1, 2.30) who returns from the 10-day DL after a minor hamstring issue. Note that since the All Star Game Rodriguez has posted a tiny 1.35 ERA, 0.66 WHIP and 28 K’s over 33.1 innings of work. Note as well that Rodriguez is a perfect 4-0 with a 2.01 ERA at home. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Godley is getting far too much respect in my opinion. Great value, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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08-29-18 | Rays v. Braves -150 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -150 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I think that Sean Newcomb and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Diego Castillo (3-2, 3.23 ERA) who has looked pretty good so far in his short time in the big leagues. Note that Castillo is expected to be on a pitch count today (as he has been in each of his appearances.) Newcomb (11-6, 3.57) most recently comes in off a win against Miami on Thursday, striking out eight over six scoreless innings. He’s slowing down a little after his blistering start to the 2018 campaign, but a date against the light hitting Rays in this spot is just what the doctor ordered to keep the momentum rolling, as note that he’s 8-3 with a 2.77 ERA in all night games so far this season. I’ll point out as well that Tampa is a horrible 2-8 in its last ten night interleague road games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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08-29-18 | Nationals v. Phillies -121 | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Gio Gonzalez (7-11, 4.35 ERA) who gave up one run off seven hits over seven innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Note that since the beginning of June Gonzalez is just 1-9 over 15 starts. Additionally note that he’s just 3-7 with a 4.35 ERA on the road. Jake Arrieta (9-9, 3.37) gets the nod for the home side and he most recently comes in off a couple of solid outings. Clearly Arrieta hasn’t recaptured his 2015 form, but he’s been solid for his new team, especially at home where he owns a sharp 2.68 ERA thus far. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine home night games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. I’m banking on Arrieta continuing his strong play at home and I look for the Phillies to provide the rest. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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08-29-18 | Tigers v. Royals -113 | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Kansas City Royals (2:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Michael Fulmer (3-9, 4.32 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the White Sox in his last start. But decent starts have been few and far between for the Tigers’ right-hander, who owns an unimpressive 1.33 WHIP and only 93 K’s over 112 innings of work. Note as well that Fulmer owns a poor 5.71 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Danny Duffy (7-11, 4.85) who gave up two earned runs off six hits while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Thursday. Like his counterpart today, Duffy has been a disappointment this season, but note that the Royals have excelled in this spot of late, going 5-1 in their last six day home games in which they’re a favorite in the +105 to +125 range. Look for Duffy to build off his latest performance and find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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08-28-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -154 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 27 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 10* (8:15 EST). Here’s a matchup where I believe that the home field advantage can not be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova (7-8, 4.20 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Tuesday. Nova’s been decent of late, but note that he still owns a poor 5.78 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Jack Flaherty (7-6, 2.97) who comes in off back to back strong outings and who sports a sharp 134:37 K/BB over 20 starts this year. Also note that Flaherty has a highly respectable 2.91 ERA in all home games thus far. Additionally note that Pittsburgh is already a poor 6-14 (-5.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while St. Louis is surging right now, 19-5 (+15.5 units) in the month of August thus far. Suffice it to say, I look for the Cards to carry that momentum over here in this favorable matchup. Lay the price play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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08-28-18 | Brewers -120 v. Reds | 7-9 | Loss | -120 | 28 h 22 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (7:10 EST). Ultimately I don’t think that this match up on the mound is as even as the oddsmakers would like us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (6-8, 3.72 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against these very Reds in his last start on Tuesday. Guerra surely hasn’t been perfect this year, but note that he comes in sporting a very respectable 3.41 ERA In all night games. The home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani (6-4, 4.26) who has looked decent of late, but who has been consistently inconsistent in this spot all year by posting a very pedestrian 4.91 ERA in all night contests. And that doesn’t bode well for DeSclafani, as note that the Brewers are a massive 52-28 (+23.6 units) this year in all “night” games. Conversely note that the Reds are a poor 33-45 (-4.3 units) in all night contests thus far. All things considered, I think this line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-28-18 | Nationals -110 v. Phillies | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals 8* (7:05 EST). These two squared off last week and it was Aaron Nola and the Phillies who came out on top of the low-scoring 2-0 pitchers duel. Suffice it to say, I like Max Scherzer and the Nationals to get their revenge in Philadelphia Tuesday. Scherzer (16-6, 2.13 ERA) gave up those two runs off two hits over seven innings last week, also going on to strike out ten. Over 181 innings this year Scherzer owns an elite 244/45 K/W and note that he’s been particularly sharp on the road by going 8-3 with a 1.82 ERA thus far. Nola (15-3, 2.13) went eight shutout innings against Washington last week. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nola, so I won’t even bother. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. As note that Philadelphia is a horrible 25-26 (-4.8 units) this year against division opponents, while Washington is 7-2 in its last nine road games in which the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125. Revenge is a dish best served cold. Play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-27-18 | Mets +134 v. Cubs | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST). After getting trounced 15-0 at home by the Nationals, I expect the Mets to wake up and respond in the opener of this three-game National League series. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard (9-3, 3.38 ERA) who looked dominant in a win over the Giants on Wednesday. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but note that he’s 4-2 with a highly respectable 3.32 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Jon Lester (14-5, 3.64) who gave up one run over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Tigers on Wednesday. Lester has the winning 5-3 record at home, but note he owns a very pedestrian 4.45 ERA in “The Friendly Confines.” I look for Syndergaard to continue his strong play at home and for New York to play with a little pride after last night’s shellacking. Play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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08-27-18 | Nationals -110 v. Phillies | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). These starters faced off in Washington last week and it was Zach Eflin who got the better of Stephen Strasburg, who made his first start in over a month after a neck injury. With a chance to exact a little immediate revenge, I look for Strasburg to get back on track here. Strasburg (6-7, 4.23 ERA) gave up five runs off seven hits while striking out five in the no-decision over five innings against the Phillies on Wednesday. He has to be feeling confident though that he can bounce back here as he’s 4-2 with a 2.33 ERA on the road this season, compared to only 2-5 with a 5.68 ERA at home. Eflin (9-4, 3.93) has been sharp overall this year and he’s been better at home than on the road, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough against a Nationals team which is 8-2 in its last ten after scoring 14 or more runs in its previous contest (just beat the Mets 15-0 yesterday afternoon), while Philadelphia is a poor 1-7 in its last eight night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +125 range. Lay the price, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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08-27-18 | Blue Jays -138 v. Orioles | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -138 | 26 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (3-6, 4.95 ERA) who gave up two runs while striking out seven and walking one in a win over these very Orioles on Tuesday. The home side counters with the volatile David Hess (2-8, 5.50) who gave up one run over seven innings in a loss to the Jays on Wednesday. Despite the decent outing, the 25-year old owns a poor 5.50 ERA and shoddy 5.9 K/9. And unfortunately for Hess a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked as note that the rookie is just 1-3 with a 6.14 ERA at home. Note as well that Toronto is a solid 46-39 (+8.6 units) this season against right-handed starters, while Baltimore is just 22-65 (-37.8 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-18 | Astros v. Angels +130 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 9 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels 10* (4:05 EST). I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry underdog home side. The visitors hand the ball to Framber Valdez (1-0, 0.00 ERA) who posted a victory in his major-league debut on Tuesday against Seattle, giving up one run over 4.1 innings. Valdez looked decent, but clearly he faces a difficult task in this tough venue. The home side counters with Felix Pena (1-3, 4.53) who comes in off a great start against the Diamondbacks on Tuesday, giving up four runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out 12 over six innings. Pena has looked sharp of late and I don’t think there’s any reason not to believe that he can’t carry that momentum over here. I think Valdez is getting far too much respect in this spot. Great value, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-18 | Bengals +1.5 v. Bills | Top | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:00 EST). The Bengals enter a “make or break” season in 2018/19 and they’ve come out of their corner swinging early with a 2-0 NFLX start. I think Cincinnati keeps the foot on the gas for one more week. Buffalo enters at 1-1. Cincinnati scored all of its points in the second half of its 21-13 win over Dallas last week. QB Andy Dalton took a few snaps and finished 5 of 7 for 41 yards, while backup Matt Barkley threw a TD strike as well in the fourth quarter. Third stringer Jeff Driskel had 119 yards and an INT. The Bengals were tough defensively last year and that’s so far been the case in the early going as well this season. Buffalo has a QB battle going on right now after AJ McCarron suffered a collarbone fracture. Rookie Josh Allen and Nathan Peterman are now duking it out for the No. 1 job. Peterman is 17 of 30 for 231 yards, two TD’s and an INT so far in the preseason, while Allen has gone 18 of 32 for 176 yards and two major scores. Injury news for the Bills sees DT Kyle Williams out after suffering a knee injury against Cleveland. This is indeed just the preseason, but I still think it’s worth pointing out that the Bengals are 7-3 ATS in their last ten on the road. I like the Bengals’ QB’s and Cincinnati’s defense has also impressed early. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies -134 | 12-3 | Loss | -134 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies 8* (3:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber (3-0, 2.98 ERA) who overall has been fantastic in his limited time, but who comes in off a bit of a shaky outing against the Dodgers. If the rookie’s had one small weakness it’s been his play on the road where he owns a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA. The home side counters with Tyler Anderson (6-6, 4.45) who gave up four runs while striking out eight and walking zero over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Padres on Tuesday. While his ERA is nothing to write home about, note that his peripherals (1.25 WHIP and .241 opponent batting average) are both extremely solid. Also note that Anderson owns a highly respectable 3.45 ERA at Coors Field. And finally note that St. Louis is a poor 20-25 (-5.6 units) this year already in all road games when the money line in the contest is between +125 and -125. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -132 | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 10 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (2:10 EST) I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular selection. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer (4-6, 4.41 ERA) who left his last start with a leg injury. It was just a precautionary measure and he was looking good before being pulled over five innings vs. the Braves on Monday. Archer though is a poor 4-5 with a 4.56 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Chase Anderson (8-7, 3.92 ERA) who gave up two runs and no walks while striking out six over six innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Monday. After a sluggish patch, Anderson has gotten back on track and I think he carries that momentum over here. Additionally I’ll point out that Milwaukee has been money in the bank all year long for bettors in this spot, going 16-4 (+10.2 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while conversely, the Pirates have been destroyed in this position all season by going just 5-14 (-6.5 units) as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Cardinals v. Rockies -125 | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (8:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to John Gant (5-5, 3.75 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with two walks while striking out one over 4.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. His numbers look decent, but note that he’s managed to complete six innings only twice in his past nine starts. Also note that he’s just 1-1 with a 4.75 ERA on the road. The home side counters with German Marquez (11-9, 4.42) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who is a highly respectable 7-3 with a 3.86 ERA in all night games. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is already a poor 19-25 (-6.6 units) this in all road games when the total in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Colorado is 18-13 this season in all home games when the total in the game falls in the same range. I think Gant takes a step back in this difficult venue. Lay the price, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Hawaii +14 v. Colorado State | Top | 43-34 | Win | 100 | 660 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Hawaii (7:30 EST). Two flawed teams go at it on opening day as the Rainbow Warriors try to keep things together around a new quarterback and the Rams are hoping for a completely rebuilt defense to figure things out until newcomers can gain enough experience to compete on a high level. The Hawaii QB figures to be strong-armed Cole McDonald, who at 6-foot-4 and 205 pounds has the look of a solid QB, if not the resume. McDonald will resurrect the run-and-shoot offense that was abandoned last season, and he should have some opportunities against Colorado State, which gutted its defense (including the coaches) and is starting from scratch. But the tide goes both in and out in this one, as the Rainbow Warriors’ inexperience on offense (the O-Line and running game are starting over) could find it a challenge against even the Rams’ porous D. Hawaii has lost seven straight in this series, including a 30-point (51-21) drubbing last season on the island. With both programs struggling to gain traction, go with Hawaii to at least cover the 14 in a game that could be sloppy. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -130 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -130 | 25 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* Wipeout Winner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (7:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon (9-9, 3.58 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Sunday. Overall Taillon has been as solid as Pittsburgh could have possibly asked for this year, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (13-4, 3.58) who gave up four hits over six shutout frames in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Chacin comes in on top form, having won six straight and his 13 victories rank sixth overall in the National League. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 28-31 on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 38-25 (+8.2 units) at home. I like Chacin to continue his incredibly hot play in front of the home town crowd. Play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Titans v. Steelers -4 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* 35-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (4:00 EST). Both teams come in off brutal losses, but I think Pittsburgh will be the one to bounce back in Week 3. Tennessee enters off a 30-14 home loss to Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh was destroyed 51-34 at Lambeau. If recent history is any precedence, then the Steelers have to be liking their chances today though because when these teams met in the regular season last year Pittsburgh would smash Tennessee 40-17. Titans’ QB Marcus Mariota was 4 of 7 for 80 yards and a TD last week. Backup Blaine Gabbert had 116 yards and a major score as well. WR Taywan Taylor had a huge game in a losing cause with 94 receiving yards and two TD catches. Both Rishard Matthews and Delanie Walker will be out with injury this week. I think the Steelers come out and play with aggression from the very start as they look to atone for last week’s beatdown. Mason Rudolph was 5 of 11 for 47 yards, one TD and one INT. James Washington the rookie had four catches for 92 yards, while RB James Conner had 57 yards on five carries. Whether Roethlisberger plays or not today, I like the home side here. Tennessee simply doesn’t put a lot of stock into actually winning preseason games, as evidenced by the fact that it’s just 1-5 ATS in its last six preseason contests. Besides, the Steelers have put up 65 points already over the first two games with Big Ben on the sidelines anyways. Conversely, the Titans’ QB’s have mustered a total of two TD’s over the first two games. Lay the points and expect a rout. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Rangers v. Giants -140 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 23 h 33 m | Show |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Martin Perez (2-5, 6.93 ERA) who comes in off back to back poor outings and who is a brutal 1-4 with a 7.01 ERA on the road. Perez has been consistently inconsistent all season and I don’t think there’s any reason to expect anything different here either. The home side counters with Andrew Suarez (4-9, 4.68) who enters with a respectable 1.25 WHIP so far this year. The rookie is going through growing pains (understandably), but note that he’s been at his best at home with a very respectable 3.49 ERA thus far. I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 16-21 (-3.5 units) in all “day” games this year, while San Francisco is 26-18 (+13.2 units) in the same position. I think Suarez easily gets the better of Perez. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Nationals v. Mets +104 | 0-3 | Win | 104 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the New York Mets (4:05 EST). I think Zach Wheeler is going to out-duel Tanner Roark at home this afternoon. Roark (8-12, 4.05 ERA) has been hit-or-miss this year as evidenced by his record and ERA. Note that he’s 4-6 with 4.01 ERA on the road. Wheeler (8-6, 3.63) gave up one run over seven innings while striking out ten in an unfortunate no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. He’s now posted a tiny 0.92 ERA and elite 40/7 K/W over his last five starts. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Wheeler suggests that he’s in line for another dominant evening here. I look for that momentum to continue in this great value position. Play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-18 | Chiefs +2 v. Bears | 20-27 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (1:00 EST). KC comes in off a 28-14 road win over Atlanta in Week 2 and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here at Soldier Field. Chicago returns home after getting the better of Denver 24-23 in Week 2. The Chiefs have looked good at the QB position so far in the preseason. Last week Pat Mahomes was 8 of 12 for 138 yards and a TD. Overall Mahomes is 13 of 19. Backup QB Chad Henne has 85 yards and a TD so far. RB Kareem Hunt has so far been quiet, but he had a monster 2017/18, going for 1,327 rushing yards and 455 receiving yards. Defense was a strength for KC last year and it should be decent again this season as well. The Bears saw Mitchell Trubisky go 9 of 14 for 90 yards, one TD and an INT. Back-up Chase Daniel had 189 passing yards and two TD’s. RB Jordan Howard finished with 32 yards on nine carries. The defense though did not look particularly dominant against the Broncos’ reserves. I think the Chiefs have looked better on special teams and defensively in the early going and I think that’ll be the difference on Saturday afternoon. That said, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-18 | Packers v. Raiders -3 | 6-13 | Win | 100 | 128 h 19 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oakland Raiders (10:30 EST). Green Bay has looked awfully good in the early going, most recently hammering the Steelers 51-34 at home. Backup QB Brett Hundley was 6 of 9 for 77 yards. DeShone Kizer also looked good with 149 passing yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out though that the victory did come at a cost, as RB Jamaal Williams was lost with a sprained ankle. Oakland fell 19-14 to LA in its latest action. Note though that all of the key offensive starters were sitting on the bench in that meaningless contest. Expect to see most of the starters back in tonight for the majority though. Backup QB Connor Cook was just 6 of 12 for 49 yards, but starter Derek Carr, RB Marshawn Lynch and receivers Amari Cooper and Jordy Nelson could all see time today. Ultimately I think that Green Bay knows what it has in its backups. It already knew what it had in Aaron Rodgers. The Packers won’t want to risk anything here, Oakland on the other hand is a work in progress and with the main offensive stars seeing the majority of time and trying to leave an impression, everything points to a home side blowout in my opinion. Play on the Raiders. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-18 | Rangers v. Giants -158 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -158 | 31 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Hutchinson (2-2, 5.71 ERA) who made his third start for the Rangers last Friday against the Angels, giving up two runs off five hits over five innings in the victory. Over three starts though he’s posted a poor 5.71 ERA and 27/21 K/W over 34.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Derek Rodriguez (6-1, 2.25) who has been cleared to go here after a minor hamstring issue. Over five starts since the All Star game he’s posted a 1.35 ERA and a minuscule 0.66 WHIP with 28 K’s spanning 33.1 innings of work. I believe Hutchinson will take a major step back in this difficult venue and under the National League format. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-18 | Lions v. Bucs -2 | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 49 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8*) (8:00 EST). Tampa lost to Detroit in the regular season last year 24-21. Detroit is so far 0-2 in the preseason, while Tampa is 2-0. The Lions have scored just 27 points so far in the preseason. That’s total. The ground game has just 77.5 yards total. LeGarrette Blount has 53 yards over the first two games. Matt Stafford is expected to see more time in this one, but I think he’ll struggle in this difficult venue. Detroit has looked decent defensively in the early going, but once again I believe the unit will struggle on the road against the Bucs up-tempo offense. Tampa beat Miami 26-24 and then followed that up with a 30-14 road victory at Tennessee in Week 2. Jameis Winston was 13 of 18 for 226 yards and two TD’s last week, while Justin Watson had 54 receiving yards and a TD. Last year the Bucs were brutal defensively, but so far over the first two preseason games they’ve given up just 19 total points. I like Tampa to keep the foot on the gas for one more week in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-18 | Cardinals -104 v. Rockies | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 44 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals 9* (8:40 EST). I like Miles Mikolas to continue his progression and to get the better of his counterpart Antonio Senzatela on Friday night. Mikolas (13-3, 2.80 ERA) most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Brewers on Saturday, allowing five hits, walking and none and striking out seven. Note that he enters 7-0 with a 3.47 ERA on the road. Senzatela (4-3, 4.47) returned from injury against the Braves on Saturday to make his first start since early August and he’d give up two runs over five innings. Senztela has surprisingly been better at home than on the road, but note that the Rockies are a poor 2-8 in their last ten home games when the line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. Great value on the “better” pitcher. Play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-18 | Pirates v. Brewers -127 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers 8* (8:10 EST). Here’s a match-up where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Musgrove (5-7, 3.31 ERA) who has been “on again, off again” with his performances of late. The home side counters with Wade Miley (2-2, 2.18) who for the most part has looked extremely sharp for Milwaukee in his limited time. Note that he has a very respectable 1.25 WHIP and a tiny 1.69 ERA in all night games. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is just 16-22 (-6.8 units) this year against southpaws, while Milwaukee is 15-4 (+9.2 units) this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Bank on Miley outlasting Musgrove and lay this very reasonable price. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins OVER 42.5 | 29-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 19 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Broncos/Redskins (8*) (7:30 EST). Two teams hungry for a victory in Week 3 collide on Friday night and suffice it to say, I think that offensive “shootout” is written all over it. Denver will be especially motivated tonight after falling 24-23 to Chicago at home last Saturday. Backup QB Paxton Lynch was just 5 for 11 for 39 yards, but Chad Kelly looked pretty good by going 7 of 9 for 90 yards. And in the opener against the Vikes Kelly threw for 177 yards and two TD’s. Defensively the Broncos were a bit of a mess last week and I think the unit will once again have its hands full here against the Redskins. Washington enters off a 15-13 win over the Jets in Week 2, as QB Alex Smith would go 4 for 6 for 48 yards. Backups Kevin Hogan and Colt McCoy though were a combined 19 of 27 for 198 yards. The Redskins looked decent defensively against the Jets backups, but clearly the competition level goes up immensely in Week 3. I’m banking on these two teams fighting hard all game long and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-18 | Nationals -144 v. Mets | 0-3 | Loss | -144 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals 8* (7:10 EST). While neither of these starters instils much confidence, I absolutely believe that this one favors Gio Gonzalez and the hard-hitting visiting side. Gonzalez (7-10, 4.51 ERA) has not been at his best since the All Star break. He’s off back to back sub-par outings, but I still think the veteran will step up and take advantage of this favorable matchup. Despite all of his struggles this year, there’s no question that he catches a break tonight facing confirmed “gas can” Jason Vargas (3-8, 7.67) who remains in the Mets rotation right now out of necessity, due to so many injuries. I’ll point out as well that the home field advantage has been anything but for Vargas this season, who is just 1-4 with a 6.75 ERA in New York. Washington is 126-80 against the division the last three years, while New York is just 101-103 (-22.7 units) in the same position. I look for Washington to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-23-18 | A's -149 v. Twins | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -149 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* WIPEOUT WINNER is on the Oakland Athletics (8:10 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Cahill (5-2, 3.12 ERA) who enters off a gem against Houston Saturday, giving up zero runs over seven innings while striking out seven in the victory. Over 86.2 innings the veteran now has a 3.12 ERA and a sharp 1.04 WHIP to go along with 85 K’s. The home side goes with Kohl Stewart (0-1, 7.71) who gave up three runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Tigers in his MLB debut last week. Stewart was then sent down to Triple-A, but he’s been called up to make this difficult start against the red hot A’s line-up. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is 14-8 in its last 22 night road games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -150 range. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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08-23-18 | Eagles v. Browns UNDER 42 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 102 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Eagles/Browns (8:00 EST). Week 3 of the preseason means that each team will play its starters for the majority of this one. While each side has plenty of offensive talent, neither will be playing their starting pivots long and as such, I’m expecting this one to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done. Philadelphia looks to atone defensively as well after last week’s 37-20 road loss at New England in a rematch of the Super Bowl. Overall Cleveland has looked good in the preseason, winning in Week 1, before faltering in last week’s 19-17 home loss to Buffalo. Regardless, the Browns run game and defense have been the stand out units to this point. Cleveland is trying to figure out who its starting QB is going to be as well, with Tyrod Taylor and Baker Mayfield both looking impressive early. But the run game stole the show last week for the Browns, totalling 164 yards on the ground. Rookie Nick Chubb was impressive with 53 yards and a major score. The Eagles have gotten superb QB play from third-stringer Sudfeld to this point, but I think he’ll struggle against the Browns’ talented starting defensive line-up. I believe these offenses will stall on the National stage and I expect the defensive units and special teams to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-23-18 | Phillies +148 v. Nationals | 2-0 | Win | 148 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Philadelphia Phillies (1:05 EST). It’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these starters. I simply feel that Aaron Nola is going to be able to match Max Scherzer inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the under-valued underdog. Nola (14-3, 2.24 ERA) comes in off another gem, giving up one run off three hits while striking out 11 over seven innings. The hard-throwing right-hander is putting together a career campaign and enters with a 0.98 WHIP and 160/44 K/W over 161 frames of work. Scherzer (16-5, 2.11) most recently went six scoreless against the Marlins on Friday. Scherzer has 234 K’s over 174.2 innings, but note that the Nationals are just 3-8 in their last 11 home day games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Play on Philadelphia and the red hot Aaron Nola on Thursday afternoon. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -157 | 3-1 | Loss | -157 | 32 h 45 m | Show | |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST). Here’s another one where I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Joe Flaherty (7-6, 3.05 ERA) who has been solid overall this season, but who faces a red hot counterpart in Walker Buehler (6-4, 3.19 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who owns an elite 1.01 WHIP so far. Buehler has been especially tough at home as well with the 2.17 ERA to this point. I’ll point out as well that the Dodgers are 7-3 in their last ten home night games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -175 range. I look for Buehler to edge out Flaherty on Wednesday night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-18 | Indians -120 v. Red Sox | 4-10 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 46 m | Show | |
The first pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians 8* (7:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Tribe hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (15-6, 3.33 ERA) who went seven scoreless in a win over the Orioles on Friday, giving up three hits and striking out six in the commanding effort. He’s now posted six straight quality outings with a 1.33 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and a 49/5 K/W spanning 40.2 innings. The home side goes with Brian Johnson (4-3, 4.00) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out two over five innings in a win over Tampa Bay on Friday. Johnson’s made the most of his time in the starting rotation, but I still think he’s in over his head here. Carrasco has arguably been the best pitcher in all of MLB over the last month and I think he’s being severely undervalued in this spot. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -120 to -175 range. Great price in my professional opinion, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-18 | Braves v. Pirates -117 | 2-1 | Loss | -117 | 29 h 40 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates 8* (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Julio Teheran (8-7, 4.24 ERA) who has been more “miss” than “hit” this season. Teheran has been serviceable at best and note that he’s been at his worst on the road with a 4-5, 4.93 ERA. The home side goes with Trevor Williams (10-9, 3.53) who has been decent overall and who has been particularly sharp of late. Williams has been solid at home as well with a sharp 3.13 ERA. Teheran’s road struggles come back to haunt him here, while I look for Williams to continue his steady form in friendly confines. Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-18 | Twins v. White Sox -115 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 24 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Chicago White Sox (2:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson (7-9, 3.51 ERA) who gave up three runs over seven innings with five strikeouts and three walks in a win over these very White Sox on Friday. Gibson has been decent of late, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 4.01 ERA in all day games. The home side counters with Carlos Rodon (4-3, 2.69) who gave up three runs while striking out six over eight innings in a win over Detroit on Wednesday. Over the last six weeks he’s gone 3-0 with a 1.60 ERA and 0.93 WHIP spanning seven starts. Gibson has likely thrown better than what his win/loss record would indicate this season, but Rodon has arguably been the best pitcher in the entire league over the last month and a half. I’m banking on Rodon continuing that progression in friendly confines. Great price, play on the White Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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08-21-18 | Angels +160 v. Diamondbacks | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the LA Angels (9:40 EST). Patrick Corbin has been no slouch this year and he comes in on top form. But I think that Felix Pena and the hard-hitting Angels have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Pena (1-3, 4.35 ERA) gave up one run off two hits with four walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Pena would go on to fire first-pitch strikes to 17 of 23 batters and induce 14 swing and misses. Over his last 17 innings of work he’s given up five runs with 12 strikeouts. Note as well that Pena owns a 1.31 ERA on the road this year. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Corbin, as he’s won four straight and been consistent all year. I simply feel however that Pena is going to match Corbin inning for inning tonight and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the dangerous underdog. Play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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08-21-18 | Twins -135 v. White Sox | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jose Berrios (11-8, 3.75 ERA) who gave up four runs (three earned) over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision to Pittsburgh on Wednesday. It was his shortest start since April though, so I’m not going to over-react. While Berrios has scuffled a bit of late, I’ll point out that he’s still a sharp 8-2 with a 2.79 ERA in all night games this year. The home side counters with Michael Kopech (0-0, 0.00) who makes his major league debut tonight. Over 24 starts in Triple-A he has a poor 11.1 percent walk rate. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota is now 16-7 (+6.7 units) in its last 23 against clubs with losing records, while Chicago is just 11-12 in its last 23 in the same position. All things considered a great price in my opinion. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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08-21-18 | Phillies v. Nationals -138 | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the Washington Nationals (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez (8-9, 4.13 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back poor outings. Velasquez has taken a clear step back of late and I believe he’ll struggle again here in the Nation’s capital. The home side counters with Tanner Roark (8-12, 4.13) who comes in off a strong outing against the Cubs on Thursday, giving up two runs while striking out seven over eight innings in the eventual victory. Roark comes in on top form, having gone at least seven innings and allowing two runs or less in four straight starts. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitchers and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Roark suggests that he’s going to be able to easily out-duel his inconsistent counterpart this evening. Play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-20-18 | Cardinals v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 32 h 38 m | Show |
The third pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers 10* (10:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber (3-0, 2.89 ERA) who went five scoreless against Washington on Wednesday for the win. He’s now posted 11 straight scoreless, but I think he’s poised for some regression in this difficult venue. The home side counters with Alex Wood (7-6, 3.51) who gave up one run off three hits with six strikeouts over five innings to San Francisco on Tuesday, unfortunate to receive a no-decision. The southpaw has now given up one earned run or fewer in three straight starts, while also posting a tiny 2.43 ERA over his last ten trips to the hill. Gomber takes a step back and Wood continues his dazzling play at home. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 43 | Top | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 33 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SUPER TOTAL is the under Ravens/Colts (8:00 EST). It’s the preseason. It’s Week 2 of the preseason. This is arguably the most unimportant game of the entire year for both teams. Next week though is the “real deal,” as Week 3 is considered the “dress rehearsal” for Week 1 of the regular season. With two wins already (a victory over the Bears in the Hall Of Fame Game), I think the Ravens are going to go through the motions as they look ahead to the much more important Week 3 match-up. Indianapolis beat the Seahawks 19-17 on the road last week, holding Seattle to just 87 rushing yards on 22 carries. Baltimore looked dominant defensively as well last week in its 33-7 victory at home over the LA Rams, holding them to just 49 passing yards (granted Jared Goff wasn’t playing, but it was still a confidence building performance for the unit nonetheless). Jacoby Brissett has looked decent in his backup role to Andrew Luck, who was 6 of 9 for 68 yards in the win over the Seahawks. The Ravens got competent backup play as well from Lamar Jackson and Robert Griffin III. But I think this one will resemble more of a “chess match” than a run and gun high-scoring “shoot-out.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-20-18 | Indians -100 v. Red Sox | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 39 m | Show | |
The second pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians 8* (7:00 EST). A prime time match-up features a couple of competent hurlers going head-to-head on Monday night. Despite how good Boston starter Rick Porcello has looked this season though, I think that Indians’ ace Corey Kluber is severely undervalued in this match-up. Kluber (15-6, 2.68 ERA) gave up one run over seven innings in a win over Cincinnati on Tuesday. He gave up two hits and had seven strikeouts. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been very good, especially on the road with a 7-3, 3.27 ERA thus far. Porcello (15-5, 4.04) gave up one un over seven innings in a win over the Phillies on Tuesday. For the most part Porcello has been sharp this year, but note that he does own the pedestrian 4.77 ERA at home to this point. I don’t think these pitchers are as evenly matched as the oddsmakers want us to believe. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Astros/A’s (4:05 EST). These teams went “over” the final 7.5 number in yesterday’s contest as the A’s pulled away for the 7-1 victory. Each side sends out its ace in the finale of this three-game series and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander (11-8, 2.52 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate loss to Colorado on Tuesday, as he’d give up just two runs and strike out 11 over six innings. His 217 K’s on the year rank fifth overall. Note that Verlander has been at his best on the road with a sparkling 9-2, 1.74 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with Sean Manaea (11-8, 3.44) who gave up three runs off five hits with three walks while striking out one over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the southpaw, who will now look to bounce back here and finish the regular season strong. Note that Manaea has a solid 1.05 WHIP and a 6-0, 2.81 ERA record in all day games. I’ll point out as well that Houston has already seen the total go under the number in 20 of 30 this year as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-18 | Cubs +107 v. Pirates | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Cubs (1:35 EST). I had a play on the Cubs yesterday and while that pick came up short, I think the visitors will bounce back in the finale of this three game set on Sunday afternoon. Chicago hands the ball to Jose Quintana (10-9, 4.46 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Brewers on Tuesday, conceding five runs off six hits over five innings. Note that he’s been better on the road (3.99 ERA) that at home (5.00). The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (9-9, 3.66) who gave up three earned runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings Tuesday in what turned out to be a loss to the Twins. Taillon owns a 3.99 ERA at home, but note that Pittsburgh is just 15-22 (-7.8 units) against southpaws this year. The Cubs are 53-41 against right-handed starters. They’re also a solid 33-27 on the road (71-50 overall). I like Quintana to bounce back here and match Taillon inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the revenge-minded underdog, Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-18 | Rockies v. Braves -123 | 4-2 | Loss | -123 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Braves (1:35 EST). The Braves fell 5-3 to the Rockies as -165 favorites yesterday. I think the home side bounces back in the finale of this three game set though. The visitors hand the ball to German Marquez (10-9, 4.51 ERA) who struck out seven and walked two in a victory over Houston on Tuesday, ultimately giving up one run over seven innings. After a poor June, Marquez has been sharp since early July and not surprisingly he’s been better on the road than at home. But despite all of that, I still think he’ll have his hands full here. The home side counters with Anibal Sanchez (6-3, 3.07) who for the most part has exceeded expectations as well this year. Note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.69 ERA in all day games thus far. From a situational stand point though, this one highly favors the home side, as note that Colorado is just 16-24 (-8.3 units) in all day games, while Atlanta is 25-16 (+12 units) in the same position. All things considered, a great price. Play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-18 | Giants -103 v. Reds | 4-11 | Loss | -103 | 23 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (1:10 EST). I had a play on the Giants yesterday and while that pick came up empty, I think the visiting side will bounce back in the finale of this three-game set on Sunday afternoon. San Francisco sends Andrew Suarez (4-8, 4.40 ERA) to the hill, and he most recently went six scoreless with four K’s in an unfortunate no-decision to the Dodgers on Tuesday. The home side counters with the volatile Luis Castillo (6-10, 5.04) who was rocked for five runs off five hits with one walk while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Sunday. He’s now given up three homers over his last 11 innings of work. Despite yesterday’s setback the Giants are still 25-17 (+13 units) in all day games, while the Reds are just 22-26 in the same position. Suarez has been far from perfect, but I think the rookie is the correct call here as I like the Giants to respond in this bounce back situation and facing the erratic Castillo. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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08-18-18 | Dodgers -130 v. Mariners | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -130 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST). I think that this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (5-4, 3.57 ERA) who comes in off back-to-back strong outings and who owns a sharp 1.40 ERA over his last 30.1 innings of work. Note that he’s been particularly effective on the road as well with the 3-1, 3.11 ERA record to this point. The home side counters with Erasmo Ramirez (0-2, 6.75) who returned from injury to take on the Astros in his last start. Ramirez looked decent, but overall he’s been terrible this season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Hill suggests he’s going to be able to easily out-duel Ramirez. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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