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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-23-17 | Army v. San Diego State -6.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Diego State (3:30 EST). The 10-2 San Diego State Aztecs get ready to battle the 8-3 Army Black Knights on Saturday afternoon in the Armed Forces Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Rashaad Penny and the Aztecs. SDSU’s star RB will NOT be skipping the Armed Forces Bowl in preparation for the NFL draft. The Aztecs finished with a 10-2 record and went 6-2 in MWC play. SDSU’s defense is ranked 15th in the country, conceding just 304 total yards per game. The Aztecs are led by Penny on offense, who has 2,027 rushing yards and 19 TD’s so far this year. Junior QB Christian Chapman had a 13/3 TD/INT. Army finished 9-3. The Black Knights come into this one off a win over Navy in their regular season finale. QB Ahmad Bradshaw finished the year with 1,566 rushing and 12 rushing TD’s. Like its counterpart today, Army’s offense revolves around the run, led by Darnell Woolfolk and Kell Walker. The Black Knights own the No. 1 rushing offense in the country, but their defense has been hit or miss. Army had its six game win streak snapped in a 52-49 loss to North Texas on November 18th, only to then rebound in the 14-13 win over Navy. I’ll point out as well that SDSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 20 points or less in its previous outing, while Army is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 14 points or less. SDSU’s strength on defense is against the run, holding opponents to just 110.8 per game average. The Aztecs though also feature a top notch offense led by the Nation’s leading rusher. All signs point to a rout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-22-17 | Villanova v. Hofstra +22 | Top | 95-71 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG OF THE MONTH is on Hofstra (8:30 EST). The 7-4 Hofstra Pride get ready to battle the 11-0 Villanova Wildcats on Friday night and while I’m obviously not calling for the outright upset, I do expect the Pride to keep this one closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Hofstra had won four in a row before a 63-61 setback to Manhattan on Wednesday. Justin Wright-Foreman was a standout once again in that one with 23 points. Wright-Foreman has now scored at least 22 points in six consecutive games. The Wildcats routed the Owls 87-67 in their latest action. Jalen Brunson scored a career-high 31 points in that one. The Pride though have performed well in this spot for bettors and I expect that to carry over here, as note that Hofstra is 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with winning records, while Villanova is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a neutral court favorite between 18.5 to 24 points. I think Villanova gets caught “looking past” its lowly opponent to its Christmas break and I look for hungry Hofstra to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread it’s been afforded. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-22-17 | Hawks v. Thunder OVER 205 | Top | 117-120 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the over Hawks/Thunder (8:05 EST). The Hawks come in motivated as they’ve lost five of their last six, most recently a 105-95 setback to Indiana at home on Wednesday. OKC on the other hand has shown some signs of life of late with two straight wins, most recently an impressive 107-79 stomping of Utah on Wednesday. The Hawks average 103.1 PPG and concede 108.4. Dennis Schroeder leads the nightly charge with 19.4 points plus 6.7 assists per game, while Marco Belinelli adds 11.5 points and 2.2 assists per contest. The Thunder average 102.1 PPG and concede just 99.5. Russell Westbrook had 24 points, ten boards, seven assists and four steals in his teams most recent victory. Most figured that OKC would run teams off the court with their big three, but so far it’s been its defense which has done the job most nights. However the Thunder have looked better offensively of late and I expect that trend to carry over here as they get ready for a rematch in Utah tomorrow night as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 already this year against teams with winning records, while OKC has seen the total eclipse the posted number in not surprisingly, seven of 13 this season against poor defensive clubs which allow 106-plus points per game. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-22-17 | Central Michigan v. Wyoming UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-37 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the under CMU/Wyoming (4:00 EST). I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Wyoming lost its last two regular season games, including to a 1-11 San Jose State team in its finale. Good news for Cowboys fans is the return of starting QB Josh Allen. However, I still don’t think that’s going to mean much here as Wyoming comes into this one averaging only 22.3 PPG, while conceding just 17.8. Besides, Allen finished with an unremarkable 13/6 TD/INT ratio. Central Michigan has won four straight, including a 31-24 win over Northern Illinois in its finale. QB Shane Morris has a 26/13 TD/INT ratio. On the year the Chips average 29.7 PPG, while conceding 26.8. I’ll point out though that Central Michigan has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five following a two weeks or more layoff, while Wyoming has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six as a favorite this year and in its last four against teams with winning records. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Portland State v. California -3 | Top | 106-81 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on California (11:00 EST). The 9-3 Portland State Vikings get ready to battle the 6-6 Cal Golden Bears on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bears. Portland State looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning five of its last six, including a 116-71 rout of lowly Linfield College in its latest action. In that one Deonta North had 27 points and five steals. Cal is rolling with three straight victories, but it won’t be taking the foot off the gas tonight or “looking past” its opponent after a disastrous start to the 2017/18 campaign. The 81-59 win over Seattle in its latest action pushed the team just one game over the .500 mark. Darius McNeill led the way with 20 points in that one. I’ll point out though that Portland State is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after playing three consecutive road games, while Cal is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest. The Vikings have been an ATS cashing machine this year, but the conditions and numbers point to a letdown here. Lay the points, play on Cal. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Blackhawks v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on the over Hawks/Stars (8:35 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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12-21-17 | Celtics v. Knicks +4 | Top | 93-102 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Knicks (8:05 EST). Boston comes in off a loss at home just last night to the Heat. The Celtics have been decent in the second game of back-to-back scenarios this year, but I think they’ll stumble again tonight against this revenge-minded Knicks side. New York will be eager to get untracked after its four game win streak was snapped in a 109-91 road loss to Charlotte on Monday. And as mentioned off the top, the Knicks do indeed play with “the revenge factor” tonight after falling 110-89 in the first matchup this season in late October. And with a much more “winnable” game at home against the Bulls on Saturday, before their Christmas Day matchup at home against the Wizards, it’s definitely not too hard to picture the visitors also getting caught “looking ahead.” New York on the other hand has a tough game at Detroit tomorrow night, before its Christmas Day game at home against Philadelphia. There’s no question that tonight’s contest takes on added importance. I base my picks on many things, but this one sets up great from situational and scheduling stand points. New York is better at home (14-5 SU/ATS) than on the road and star Kristaps Porzingis is back in the line-up. Celtics coach Brad Stevens could very well give starters extra rest in the tail end of the back-to-back as well. When you add it all up, all signs point to a comfortable ATS cover for the home side. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Temple v. Florida International +7.5 | Top | 28-3 | Loss | -130 | 35 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Florida International (8:00 EST). The Owls finished 6-6 on the year, managing to move to .500 after beating Tulsa 43-22 in their finale. FIU finished 8-4 and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Temple QB Frank Nutile was 20 of 28 for 262 yards, three TD’s an no INT’s in the Owls win over the Golden Hurricanes. Nutile has been decent in his limited time this year, although he does sport a pedestrian 11/7 TD/INT ratio. The defense looked poor last week, allowing Tulsa to post 460 yards, including 314 on the ground. The Owls average 24.6 PPG and concede 27.7. The Golden Panthers average 27.5 PPG and concede 28.5. QB Alex McGough had 295 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win over UMass, while also rushing for 108 yards and a TD. The defense looked shaky in allowing 548 yards. However I’ll point out that Temple is just 1-4 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FIU is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 after scoring more than 40 points in its previous game. Florida International scored 104 points combined over its last two regular season games and I look for that offensive momentum to get carried per here. Grab the points, Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Long Beach State +27 v. Michigan State | 60-102 | Loss | -115 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Long Beach State (7:00 EST). The 5-8 LBSU 49ers get ready to battle the 11-1 Michigan State Spartans and while I’m not going to call for an outright upset, I do believe that the underdog can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. LBSU comes in off a tough 85-80 home loss to EMU, while MSU was most recently seen crushing Houston Baptist 107-62 on Monday. The 49ers average 75.5 PPG and concede 83.5. Gabe Levin had 22 points and eight boards in his teams latest setback. The Spartans average 82.9 points, while conceding just 62.3. They’ve already beaten UNC and Notre Dame, with their only loss coming to Duke in their second outing of the year. I’ll point out though that LBSU is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest, while MSU is interestingly just 1-3 ATS in its last four against poor defensive teams which allow 77-plus points per contest. I think MSU gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today to its Christmas break and I expect the capable 49ers to take advantage. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-21-17 | Western Illinois +17 v. Butler | 46-107 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Western Illinois (7:00 EST). The 7-3 Western Illinois Leathernecks get ready to battle the 9-3 Butler Bulldogs on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Leathernecks. Western Illinois saw its two game win streak snapped in a loss to Eastern Illinois last time out. Guard Dalan Ancrum led the way with 14 points. Ancrum leads the nightly charge with 17.3 PPG and 5.3 RPG. Butler bounced back from a loss to Purdue with a win over Morehead State in its latest action. In that one Bulldogs’ forward Kelan Martin posted 20 points. I’ll point out though that the under the radar Leathernecks have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 4-1-1 TS in their last six on the road and 6-2-1 ATS in their last nine overall. Butler on the other hand is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 70 points or less. Western Illinois is a good team. Note that in one of its only two losses this year, it fell in double OT to Miami Ohio. I like the Leathernecks to match pace down the stretch and keep this one competitive late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-17 | Blues +105 v. Flames | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the St. Louis Blues (9:35 EST). St. Louis comes in off a 4-0 loss at Winnipeg and with a game tomorrow night in Edmonton, tonight’s contest takes on added importance. The Flames broke a three-game slide with a big 6-1 road win over Vancouver and I think they look primed for a letdown here. St. Louis is still ranked 13th in the league in scoring with an average of 3.00 GPG, while ranked fourth on the defensive side by conceding just 2.51. Goaltender Jake Allen looks to bounce back off a rare shaky effort, he’s still 17-11 with a 2.59 GAA on the year, including 7-5 with a 2.82 GAA on the road. Calgary averages 2.79 GPG, while it allows 2.94. Goaltender Mike Smith is 13-14 with a 2.61 GAA on the year, including 7-9 with a 3.05 GAA at home. I’ll point out that St. Louis is 38-17 in its last 55 when playing on two days of rest, while Calgary is still just 27-58 in its last 85 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. I like Allen to outplay Smith and in my opinion, that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Blues tonight. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 112-104 | Win | 100 | 29 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (9:05 EST). The 18-13 Minnesota Timberwolves are in Denver to take on the 16-14 Nuggets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Minnesota enters off a momentum building 108-107 win over the Blazers on Monday, while the Nuggets come in off a deflating 95-94 loss to OKC in their latest action. The Wolves are 6-4 in their last ten. Minnesota averages 107.6 PPG and concedes 106.4. Jimmy Butler exploded for 37 points and six boards in his teams latest victory. The Nuggets average 107.4 PPG and concede 107.1. Garry Harris had 17 points in the road loss to the Thunder. I’ll point out that Minnesota is 4-1 ATS vs. division opponents already this year and 6-2 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Denver is interestingly just 6-8 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106-plus points per contest and just 2-3 ATS against division opponents. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-17 | Louisiana Tech +5 v. SMU | Top | 51-10 | Win | 100 | 35 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Louisiana Tech (8:00 EST). 6-6 Louisiana Tech gets ready to battle 7-5 SMU in the Frisco Bowl from Texas on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. The Bulldogs come in with momentum, as they needed to win their final two games of the regular season to qualify for a bowl. The Mustangs on the other hand sort of backed their way into the postseason, losing three straight before salvaging a win over Tulane in their finale. Louisiana Tech has been fantastic defensively down the stretch and I think that carries over here. Note that Secdrick Cooper and Jaylon Ferguson were both named to the All-Conference USA First Team earlier in the week: “We are excited, enthusiastic, and fired up about having the opportunity to go to a bowl game this year and this could not have worked out better,” head coach Skip Holtz noted. “We have been in the Dallas Metroplex area three out of the last four years and we have a huge alumni base in the Dallas-Fort Worth area.” SMU is back in a bowl for the first time since 2012. Chad Morris was in his third year as head coach, but he won’t be coaching tonight as he’s been lured away by Arkansas. The Mustangs’ offense is centred around the run, led by Ke’Mon Freeman and Xavier Jones, with a combined 20 major scores between the two. I think it’s interesting to note though that Louisiana Tech is 10-5 ATS in its last 15 off a win against a conference rival (including 2-1 ATS this season), while SMU is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven in the same position (including just 1-2 ATS this year.) I think the Bulldogs under-the-radar defense keeps them competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-20-17 | Manhattan v. Hofstra -7 | Top | 63-61 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Hofstra (7:00 EST). Hofstra has won four straight after beating Stony Brook last week and I look for the Pride to carry that momentum over here. This is the fourth straight year in which the Pride have posted a win streak of late least four games. In the latest victory, Hofstra’s Justin Wright-Foreman posted 33 points. Wright-Foreman is the team points leader with 23.1 per game. Manhattan enters on the other end of the spectrum, just 4-6 overall, recently falling 80-66 to Tulsa on Saturday. Rich Williams leads the nightly charge for the Jaspers with 15.3 PPG. Note that this is a big time revenge game for Hofstra here as well after the Jaspers earned the 80-68 victory last season. Additionally I’ll point out that Manhattan is just 1-2 ATS already this year against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while Hofstra is already 2-0 ATS this season after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, play on Hofstra. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Lightning v. Golden Knights +112 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 112 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Las Vegas Golden Knights (10:05 EST). I think Tampa has a letdown here in the finale of its four-game Western swing. Both teams come in hot, with Tampa leading the NHL with 50 points, while the Knights have won six of their last seven. Tampa ranks first in the league in goals with 3.8 per game, while goaltender Andrei Vasileskly is 21-4-1 with a 2.11 GAA. Speaking of hot goaltenders though, Knights’ starter Marc Andre Fleury is back from injury and he comes in with an 8-2 record after winning his last four starts. Note that Vegas has six players with over 20 points so far this year. Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa is just 29-65 in its last 94 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while Vegas is still 13-3 in its last 16 in front of the home town crowd. The Knights are third in the NHL in scoring with 3.4 GPG and I think they’ll catch the Lightning a little “flat footed” in their final game of their road trip. Great value, play on the Golden Knights. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Pepperdine v. Weber State -7 | Top | 67-72 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Weber State (9:00 EST). The 3-8 Pepperdine Waves get ready to battle the 5-5 Weber State Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Waves have lost two straight, most recently falling to Belmont. Colbey Ross led the charge in that one with 14 points. Kameron Edwards leads the team overall with 15.9 points and 6.8 boards per game. Weber State enters on the other end of the spectrum, as the Wildcats snapped a three-game losing streak with a win over Arkansas-Pine Bluff in their latest action, led by 30 points from Jerrick Harding. Harding leads the team with an average of 20.6 PPG, while Brekkott Chapman chips in 14 per night. I’ll point out that Pepperdine has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 2-6-1 ATS in its last nine following an ATS loss and just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 on the road, while Weber State is 5-0 ATS in its last five at home and 4-0 ATS in its last four against the West Coast Conference. For all the reasons listed above, play on Weber State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Cavs v. Bucks UNDER 217 | Top | 116-119 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Cavs/Bucks (8:05 EST). The Cavs enter off their fifth straight win after beating Washington 106-99 on the road on Sunday, while Milwaukee comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having lost three straight, most recently a 115-111 setback at Houston on Saturday. The Bucks will be eager to get off the schneid here and they’ll be extra motivated as they’ve lost five straight in this series, including both match ups this season. Cleveland averages 111.1 PPG and concedes 107.1. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 27.8 points, 8.5 boards and 9.3 assists per game. Milwaukee averages 104.5 points and concedes 105 per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the team with 29.8 points, 10.5 boards, 4.5 assist, 1.52 blocks and 1.85 steals per game. I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in seven of 11 already this year against clubs with winning records and in nine of 13 after three or more consecutive victories, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last six after three or more consecutive losses. The last thing Milwaukee can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Cavs. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Drake +10.5 v. South Dakota State | 74-87 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Drake (8:00 EST). The 5-6 Drake Bulldogs get ready to battle the 9-5 South Dakota State Jackrabbits and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright victory, I do think that the Bulldogs can keep this one competitive until the final moments. We don’t have to question the Bulldogs’ motivation levels tonight, as they enter having lost five of their last six, most recently to Minnesota and Iowa. In the loss to the Hawkeyes, Nick McGlynn led the way with 14 points. Reed Timmer leads the team overall with 20.0 PPG. South Dakota State on the other hand comes in off a loss to Colorado and I think its primed for another letdown here. Mike Daum had 37 points in the losing cause last time out. From a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the visitors though, as note that Drake is already 5-3 ATS this year in non-conference games and still 8-4 ATS in its last 12 against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest, while South Dakota State is already 0-2 ATS this season after allowing 80 points or more in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play on Drake. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Akron +23 v. Florida Atlantic | Top | 3-50 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Akron (7:00 EST). The 7-6 Akron Zips get ready to battle the 10-3 FAU Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. The Zips were 6-3 in MAC play, while FAU was 9-0 in C-USA action. Akron is by far the more motivated side in my opinion. The Zips fell 45-28 in the MAC Championship game to Toledo. Expect to see both Kato Nelson and Thomas Woodson under center today for the Zips. Woodson finished with 1,777 passing yards, while Nelson had an 8/2 TD/INT ratio. The Owls finished with nine straight wins and steamrolled UNT 41-17 in the C-USA title game. FAU features a strong run game, led by RB Devin Singletary, who had 1,796 rushing yards and 29 rushing TD’s. I’ll point out though that FAU TE Harrison Bryant, who missed the last two games with an injury, will also be sitting this one out. Bryant posted 408 receiving yards and five major scores. Additionally note that Akron is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a two week or more period of rest, while FAU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. I think that Akron’s offense can keep it competitive, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-19-17 | Buffalo +11 v. Syracuse | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Buffalo (7:00 EST). The 7-3 Buffalo Bulls get ready to battle the 9-1 Syracuse Orange and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulls. The Orange look ripe for a letdown here in my opinion after winning three straight. The Bulls will look to take advantage and build off an 86-70 win over Robert Morris in their latest action. Buffalo has now won three straight as well. So far the Bulls average 82.1 PPG, while conceding 76.5. CJ Massinburg had 23 points and ten boards for his third straight double-double in his team’s latest win. The Orange average 73.6 PPG and concede 63.4. Oshae Brissett is averaging 14.7 points and 9.7 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven road games and interestingly, 4-1 ATS in its last five against the ACC, while Syracuse is 0-6 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory and just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home. While I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do think the Bulls can catch the Orange a little complacent here and I expect them to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points, play on Buffalo. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is on the over Falcons/Bucs (8:30 EST). The 8-5 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 4-9 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and in my opinion, all signs point to an old fashioned shootout on Monday Night! Atlanta comes to town off a Thursday night win over New Orleans, keeping it in control of its own destiny. Tampa Bay is already looking ahead to next year, but won’t be going down without a fight today as it’ll look to play spoiler and to avenge a 34-20 loss ATL earlier in the season. Note that when these teams played a couple of weeks ago, ATL WR Julio Jones had 253 yards and two TD’s on 12 catches. Last Thursday Jones had 98 yards on five catches in the 20-17 victory over the Saints. Tampa suffered a 24-21 home loss to Detroit and lost its best defensive player in Gerald McCoy in the process last Sunday. The Bucs are second to last in the league in total defense (allowing 389.3 YPG average), while ranked No. 22 in points given up (24.0.) Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston has had a disappointing year, going for 14 TD’s, eight INT’s, ten fumbles and 23 sacks. Winston has lost seven straight games that he’s started and will clearly be eager to close the season on a high note. Additionally I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three Monday Night games, in three of its last five as a road favorite of 3.5 to seven points and in both games this year it’s played against a club with a losing record, while Tampa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of seven as an underdog this season and in two of three trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-17 | Jazz +12 v. Rockets | Top | 99-120 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Utah Jazz (8:05 EST). Houston has won 13 straight and has lost only four times this year. However, the Rockets are just 15-12-1 ATS. Utah has struggled overall this season, due mostly from injuries to key players, but I think it’ll keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door. The Jazz are injured, but they won’t be lacking for motivation tonight after dropping five of their last six, most recently a spirited 109-100 setback in Cleveland. Donovan Mitchell was a standout in that one with 26 points. Houston has been impressive, but I think it comes out flat-footed here finally as it hits a “vanilla” part of its schedule, with light weights Lakers and Clippers at home up next. I’ll point out as well that Utah is still 4-1 ATS in its last five against the West, while perhaps surprisingly, the Rockets are only 1-3-1 ATS in their last five overall. The Jazz have been playing without big man Rudy Gobert for a while now, but now the Rockets must also make an adjustment with center Clint Cappela out with injury. For all the reason listed above, play on the Jazz. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-17 | Ducks v. Devils -110 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New Jersey Devils (7:05 EST). The Ducks come into this one off a 3-2 OT loss in Washington, while New Jersey enters off a 5-2 home win over Dallas. Anaheim is just 3-5 in its last eight after its latest setback. The Ducks average only 2.61 GPG, while conceding 2.76. Goaltender John Gibson is 10-14 with a 2.84 GAA this year, including only 4-5 with a 3.05 GAA on the road. New Jersey has been inconsistent of late as well, but does come in off the momentum building 5-2 beatdown of the Stars. It’s now in second place in the Metro behind the Blue Jackets. On the year the Devils average 3.06 GPG, while they concede 2.94 GPG. Goaltender Cory Schneider is 13-10 with a 2.58 GAA and is 7-6 with a 2.58 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that Anaheim is just 1-6 in its last seven when playing on two days rest, while New Jersey is 5-1 in its last six against the Western Conference. I give the nod to Schneider over Gibson in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the home side. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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12-18-17 | Charleston Southern v. Florida State -28 | Top | 58-69 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Florida State (7:00 EST). FSU led by a point with ten seconds left, before Oklahoma State scored the deciding bucket with time winding off the clock in its latest action. Now the Seminoles look to bounce back and take out their frustrations after their first loss of the year. "We're in a conference where you can't get caught up in streaks, because nobody in the ACC is going to go undefeated," ‘Noles coach Leonard Hamilton assessed afterwards. "It doesn't happen. Tonight we played against a team that played a little better than us." The combination of Terance Mann and Phil Cofer combined for 42 points, 18 boards and five steals in the setback. Charleston Southern has lost three straight, most recently a 70-65 setback to Eastern Kentucky. Christian Keeling was the only player for the Buccaneers to score more than ten points, finishing with 26. FSU has four players that average double-digits this season. Additionally I’ll point out that Charleston Southern is 0-2 ATS in its last two non-conference games, while FSU is already a perfect 2-0 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play on Florida State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Cavs v. Wizards +1.5 | Top | 106-99 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Wizards (6:05 EST). No need to overthink this one in my opinion. After a shaky start to the 2017/18 campaign, Cleveland comes in having won 17 of its last 18 after last night’s 109-100 victory over Utah. After Washington the Cavs have a tough one at Milwaukee on Tuesday, followed by a cream puff at home against the Bulls, which precedes their big Christmas Day matchup at Golden State. Off last night’s satisfying victory, I think Cleveland comes out flat-footed here. Washington has won two straight and it’s going to be looking to keep the momentum rolling tonight. Note that the Wizards also play with revenge in this matchup after falling 130-122 to the Cavs back on November 3rd. The Wizards look a lot better with star point guard John Wall back in the line-up and I believe his presence continues to pay dividends for Washington this evening. Play on the Wizards. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | San Francisco +7.5 v. Stanford | Top | 59-71 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on San Francisco (6:00 EST). San Francisco comes in having won three in a row, most recently a 13 point win over UC Davis. Here’s the perfect opponent to try and score a big upset on, as Stanford has struggled for the most part this season, coming into this one sporting a 5-6 record (the Dons are 6-3.) Granted the Cardinal have been better at home than on the road, but I still definitely think that these two teams are much more evenly matched than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. In the win over Davis, San Francisco was led by Frankie Ferrari, who had 19 points off the bench. In Stanford’s 13 point win over Denver, Daejon Davis and Reid Travis each contributed 20 points. I’ll point out though that the Dons are 16-6 ATS in their last 22 road games following three or more consecutive home games and 6-1 ATS in their last seven against schools with a losing straight up record, while Stanford is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning SU record and 0-5 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory. USF is playing well and think it’ll keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Patriots -2 v. Steelers | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 17 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 15 Las Vegas Insider is on the NE Patriots at 4:25 ET. The 10-3 New England Patriots are in Pittsburgh to take on the 11-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defending champs. After a loss to Miami last week, New England sits at 10-3 and one game back in the AFC, while Pittsburgh comes in having won eight straight, most recently coming from behind to knock off the Ravens at home in a thriller. I think it’s important to point out though that the Pats haven’t lost back-to-back games since Week 12 and 13 of the 2015 campaign. Clearly New England was collectively caught “looking ahead” to this much more important game last week: “It was a bad night,” Brady assessed. “We’ve had a lot of good nights this year. This was a bad night.” I simply feel that Pittsburgh runs out of gas here. It’s win streak is extremely impressive and it does have the benefit of playing at home, but last week’s 39-38 Sunday night victory over Baltimore was an emotionally draining one and I believe the team comes in “hung over” still from that monumental win. Remember, in January of 2017, New England throttled the Steelers 36-17 in the AFC title game. In conclusion, I guess we shouldn't have been too surprised by the Dolphins' win last Sunday. Sure, the Pats won 35-14 last season in Miami but the Dolphins had won iin New England' s three previous visits, including 2015 when the loss cost the Pats the AFC's No. 1 seed. What was shocking about last Sunday's result was Brady completing just 24 of 43 for 223 with one TD and two INTs (note: he entered the game with just four INTs on 438 attempts). What's more, the Pats were 0 of 11 on third down tries! Really think Brady will play that poorly again? Especially with so much on the line vs. Pittsburgh and Big Ben? A check of the record book reveals that New England is 10-3 against the Steelers during the Belichick era, including 3-0 in the playoffs. What's more, the Pats are 54-18 SU and 48-24 ATS off a loss since 2000! I’m jumping on the defending champs in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks -1.5 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 46 m | Show | |
My 9* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:05 EST). Divisional games are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. LA had its two game win streak snapped in a 43-35 defeat to Philadelphia at home last Sunday, while Seattle also had its two game win streak broken in a 30-24 setback at Jacksonville. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Hawks have to be liking their chances this afternoon, because when these teams met back on October 7th in LA, it was Seattle that pulled away for the 16-10 victory. LA ranks second in the league in scoring with 30.5 PPG, while ranked 12th on the defensive side by conceding 20.4. QB Jared Goff has 3,383 yards, 22 TD’s and six INT’s. RB Todd Gurley has 1,035 rushing yards and ten TD’s. Seattle averages 24.2 PPG, while conceding 19.4. QB Russell Wilson has 3,537 yards, 29 TD’s and 11 INT’s. He also has a team high 482 rushing yards, plus three more scores on the ground. WR Doug Baldwin has 860 receiving yards and five TD’s. I’ll point out though that LA is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Seattle is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 following a straight up loss. Seattle’s defense isn’t what it used to be, but it’s still very formidable, among the league leaders in almost every category on that side of the ball. The Rams have struggled to move the ball against the league’s better defenses and this will ceratinly be a difficult atmosphere to play in as well. When you add it all up, all signs point to a crucial victory for the hungry Seahawks. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Eagles v. Giants +7.5 | Top | 34-29 | Win | 100 | 120 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Giants (1:00 EST). Philadelphia comes to The Big Apple off a big 43-35 win over the Rams, while New York enters off a 30-10 loss to the Cowboys. Note that when these teams played earlier in the year, it was the Eagles that hung on for the hard-fought 27-24 victory. The Eagles are ranked third in the league in total offense with 390.5 YPG, but No. 1 in scoring offense with 31.1 PPG. Defensively Philadelphia has also been sharp, ranked fourth overall by allowing 294.2 YPG. This is a prime letdown spot for Philadlephia if I’ve ever seen it. Last week’s epic win over the Rams clinched the team the NFC East title. But the victory came at a massive cost, as starting QB Carson Wentz was lost to injury for the rest of the season. Backup Nick Foles has plenty of weapons to work with, but he hasn’t seen any serious action since 2013/14. Jay Ajayi looked decent last week, but the defense looked horrible. New York averages just 15.3 PPG, while conceding 24.7, ranked 26th. In last weeks loss QB Eli Manning was 31 of 46 for 227 yards, a TD and three INT’s. Manning was playing from behind from the get-go and with nothing to lose this weekend either, we can expect the veteran to once again “air it out.” Manning is playing for pride this weekend after his recent benching. Certainly he can’t be happy with his performance last weekend. The Eagles are an awesome team, but all of the above external factors working against them here will be too much for Foles to overcome in my opinion. While I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate Giants can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns +7 | 27-10 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The 7-6 Baltimore Ravens are at Cleveland to take on the 0-13 Browns and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the home side. The pressure is on Baltimore this weekend after a crushing 39-38 loss at Pittsburgh on Sunday. Cleveland can empathize, as it blew a late two-touchdown lead late in the fourth quarter to Green Bay last week, falling 27-21 in OT. Note that this is a revenge game for the Browns after the Ravens took the first one 24-10 back on September 17th. Last week Baltimore gave up 438 passing yards to the Steelers. RB Alex Collins was a bright spot with 120 rushing yards. QB Joe Flacco was 20 of 35 for 269 yards, two TD’s and a pick. The Ravens average just 298.1 YPG (27th), while conceding 329.2. Browns’ QB DeShone Kizer had 214 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in last week’s loss to the Packers. RB Isaiah Crowell has been solid this year with 716 yards and four TD’s. WR Josh Gordon has created quite the stir since his return and in two games he so far has 154 yards on seven catches with one TD. Cleveland averages 311.4 YPG and concedes 328.3. It’s interesting to note though that Baltimore is just 2-3 ATS in its last five after allowing 38 points or more in its previous contest, while Cleveland is 2-1 ATS in its last three trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. While I do indeed feel that the conditions are right for an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Predators v. Flames -105 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Calgary Flames (10:05 EST). Calgary has struggled over its last ten games, winning just four of them. The Flames come in having lost two straight, most recently a tough 3-2 setback to the Sharks. With a game tomorrow night on the road in Vancouver, the Flames look to break their string of shoddy play with a big victory in front of the home town crowd. Nashville comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won seven of its last ten, including back-to-back games, most recently a 4-0 win in Edmonton on Thursday (after hammering the Canucks 7-2.) With two whole nights off before a home game against the Jets, I think the visitors finally come in a bit complacent here and get caught looking ahead. Additionally I’ll point out that the Predators are already 0-2 (-2.1 units) after shutting out their opponent in their previous game, while Calgary is 3-1 (+1.7 units) in its last four after losing in OT and failing to register three or more goals in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Flames. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Chargers v. Chiefs +2 | Top | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 104 h 46 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:25 EST). The winner of this contest will take first place in the division. LA enters off a 30-13 home win over Washington, while KC enters off a 26-15 win over Oakland. If recent history is any precedence, then the Chiefs have to be loving their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the year, it was KC that pulled away for the comfortable 24-10 victory. The Chargers come into this one ranked fourth in the league in total offense with 372.7 per game, while ranked 12th in total yards allowed with 325.1 YPG conceded. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 18 of 31 last week for 319 yards and two TD’s. KC averages 371.3 YPG and concedes 373.4 per contest. Last week QB Alex Smith was 20 of 34 for 268 yards. I’ll point out though that LA is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after posting more than 350 total yards in its previous game, while KC is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 after psoting more than 150 rushing yards in its previous outing. The Chiefs won’t be taking anything for granted here after breaking a four-game slide in their last outing. The Chargers have been on a roll, but this is a tough environment at this time of year and I think Rivers and company finally have a letdown. Play on Kansas City. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Clippers v. Heat UNDER 205 | Top | 85-90 | Win | 100 | 14 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Clippers/Heat (8:05 EST). LA comes in off a 100-91 road loss to Washington Friday, while Miami enters off a 104-98 road win over the Hornets last night. LA averages 105 PPG and concedes 106.7. Leading scorer Blake Griffin is out with injury, meaning that Lou Williams (20 points, 4.8 assists) will be leaned upon heavily until his return. The Heat average just 100.3 PPG and concede just 102.7. Guard Goran Dragic averages 17.1 points, 4.1 boards and 4.4 assists per game. I’ll point out that LA has already seen the total go under the number in six of nine non-conference games this year and in eight of 13 on the road, while Miami has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of 11 non-conference games and in six of seven against teams with losing records (also in six of 11 home games.) No need to overthink this one. LA has done well without Griffin in the line-up, but his absence will be felt in the second game of the back-to-back. The Heat can defend and have troubles scoring and will also be “gassed” in the second game of hte back-to-back scenario. When you add it all up, this number is indeed a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Georgia State v. Dayton -3.5 | Top | 83-88 | Win | 100 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Dayton (7:00 EST). The 7-3 Georgia State Panthers get ready to battle the 4-5 Dayton Flyers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Flyers. The Panthers looked poised for a letdown in my opinion after winning four of their last five. Conversely, Dayton is going to be risking life and limb here as it comes in having lost three of its last four, most recently falling at Penn last weekend. Georgia State is led by guard D’Marcus Simonds, who had 33 points in his team’s 90-70 victory over lowly Point University in their latest action. In Dayton’s 78-70 home loss to Penn last Saturday, junior forward Xeyrius Williams sat out with a minor injury, but he’s expected back for this one. Williams averages 8.8 points, 5.3 boards and 4.3 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that the Panthers are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven on the road against teams with winning home records and just 2-10 ATS in their last 12 road games following three or more consecutive home contests, while the Flyers are 5-0 ATS in their last five following a loss and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 following an ATS setback. Dayton is the deeper and hungrier team. Beyond Simonds the Panthers are pretty thin and they now face some real competition that’s focused on the task at hand. I believe Georgia State stumbles down the stretch and the under-acheiving Flyers find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Marshall +5.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 121 h 8 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Marshall (4:30 EST). The 7-5 Marshall Thundering Herd get ready to battle the 7-8 Colorado State Rams in the New Mexico Bowl on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Marshall. Marshall QB Chase Litton finished with a 23/12 TD/INT and threw at least one TD strike in all but two games this year. The Herd feature two capable backs in Tyler King and Keion Davis. Marshall’s strength is on the defensive side, especially against the run. The Rams weakness is on the defensive side, especially against pass heavy offenses. QB Nick Stevens had a 27/10 TD/INT. Colorado State also features a strong run game led by Dalyn Dawkins, who had 1,349 rushing yards on the year. I’ll point out though that the Herd are 5-1 ATS in their last six folliowing an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS in their last five neutral site affairs, while the Rams are 0-5-1 ATS in their last six neutral site contests. Marshall has the better overall defense, allowing an average of just 125 rushing yards per game. Colorado State allows an average of 243 passing yards per game. I like Litton to light up this suspect Rams secondary and for Marshall to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | Oregon -7.5 v. Boise State | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 13 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Oregon (3:30 EST). Boise State enters off a 17-14 win in the Mountain West title game back on December 2nd, while Oregon won its final two of the regular season (which included an impressive 69-10 win over Oregon State in “The Civil War.”) The Broncos finished 39th in scoring this year with an average of 32.1 PPG. Boise State was decent defensively as well, allowing 22.5 PPG. QB Montell Cozart had 747 yards, ten TD’s and one INT. He’d go on to finish third on the team in rushing with 361 yards and four scores. QB Brett Rypien had 2,515 yards, 14 TD’s and four INT’s. Oregon averaged 36.7 PPG and allowed 28.3. QB Justin Herbert had 1,750 yards, 13 TD’s and three INT’s. RB Royce Freeman has 1,475 rushing yards and 16 major scores on the ground. I’ll point out as well that Oregon is already 1-0 ATS this year when playing with two or more weeks of rest and also 6-3 ATS in its last nine games played on “turf,” while Boise State is just 13-19 ATS in its last 32 non-conference games and just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think the Ducks carry over the momentum that they found in the final two regular season games and I have a hard time seeing the Broncos keeping pace down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-16-17 | North Texas +7 v. Troy | 30-50 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 38 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on North Texas (1:00 EST). North Texas comes off a 41-17 loss to Florida Atlantic in the A-10 Championship Game, while Troy tied Appalachian State for the Sun Belt title. The Mean Green had little chance against high-powered FAU, which would wind up going undefeated in conference action. QB Mason Fine threw two INT’s in the loss. In three games previous though Fine had posted a 9/2 TD/INT. Troy has the better overall record than App State at 10-2, but both teams went 7-1 in conference action. The Trojans beat Arkansas State 32-25, but gave up over more than 300 yards then they themselves registered. I’ll point out that UNT is 7-1 ATS in its last eight non-conference games, while Troy is 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory and just 1-5 ATS in its last six non-conference games. Florida Atlantic was a team of destiny this season. UNT though excelled down the stretch of the regular season and I like the Mean Green bounce back and to keep this one competitive down the stretch. Grab the points, play on North Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-17 | UC-Davis +5.5 v. San Francisco | Top | 61-74 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on UC Davis (11:00 EST). 7-2 UC Davis gets ready to battle 5-3 San Francisco and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Aggies. Note that this game is a part of the Las Vegas Classic. UC Davis has already beaten Washington State this season and its two losses have been by single digits. Most recently the Aggies throttled NAIA school William Jessup 86-52. Rogers Printup nailed six 3-pointers and finished with 20 points. The Dons have won two straight, including an 81-71 victory over Eastern Washington Decmeber 7th. Mattt McCarthy led the way in that one with 17 points. Overall San Francisco has struggled from the floor though this year, shooting 39.1 percent collectively, including 30.6 percent from range. Additionally I’ll point out that UC Davis is 4-0 ATS in its last four as a road dog, while San Francisco is 0-8 ATS in its last eight against teams with a winning straight-up record. I think these teams are very evenly matched and I believe the winner will be the side that has its hands on the ball last. As such, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-17 | Jazz v. Celtics UNDER 198 | Top | 107-95 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmakers Error is on the under Jazz/Celtics (7:35 EST). The 13-15 Utah Jazz are in Boston to take on the 24-6 Boston Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Utah’s six game win streak is a thing of the past as the team comes to town off four straight losses. During the six-game win steak the team averaged 115 PPG, but during the slide it’s managed just 98.7. Clearly the Jazz face an up-hill battle today as well in going up against the Celtic’s second ranked defense, a unit which holds opponents to under 98 PPG. The Bulls own the league’s second worst defense and Utah couldn’t even pass the century mark against them. Boston has split its last four games, so won’t be taking anything for granted here. I’ll point out as well that Utah has seen the total go under the number in ten of its last 18 after three or more consecutive SU losses and in two of three already this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in both games this season in which it’s allowed 115 points or more in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-15-17 | Clippers v. Wizards OVER 209.5 | 91-100 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Clippers/Wizards (7:05 EST). The 11-15 LA Clippers are in Washington to take on the 15-13 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. LA beat Washington 113-112 back on December 9th and suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well as the Wizards look to push the pace and build off their 93-87 win over Memphis on Wednessday. The Clippers come in with plenty of momentum of their own as they’ve won three straight. LA averages 105 PPG and concedes 106.7. Lou Williams averages 20 PPG and will be leaned upon heavily here with star Blake Griffin still sidelined with injury. Washington ranks among the league leaders in most offensive categories, but its weakness is also on the defensive side. John Wall is back in the line-up though and I expect that to continue to pay dividends for the Wizards this evening. Note that LA has seen the total go over the number in eight of 13 already this year as an underdog, while Washignton has seen the total eclipse the posted number in all three games that it’s played in this year after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Mavs v. Warriors OVER 211.5 | 97-112 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Mavericks/Warriors (10:35 EST). The Mavs broke a three-game slide by beating the Spurs 95-89 on Tuesday, while Golden State won its seventh in a row in a 111-104 victory over Portland on Monday. Note that Golden State has won seven straight in this series and claimed the first one over the Mavs earlier in the year 133-103 back on October 23rd. So far Dallas averages 99.9 PPG and concedes 103. Harrison Barnes leads the way with 18.4 points, plus 7.4 boards per game, while Dennis Smith Jr. adds 14.4 points and four assists per contest. Golden State has the No. 1 offense in the league with an average of 117 PPG. The Warriors are below average defensively, allowing 106 per game, but when you outscore your opposition by an average of 11 every outing, defense hardly matters most nights. Kevin Durant leads the Warriors with 25.7 points and 6.9 boards per game, while Stephen Curry adds 26.3 points and 6.6 assits per game. Curry is out with a sprained ankle, but look for the home side’s depth to easily pick up the slack. Also note that Dallas has seen in fact the total go over the number in all three games that it’s played in this year after allowing 90 points or less, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of ten against teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Broncos -2.5 v. Colts | Top | 25-13 | Win | 100 | 56 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Denver Broncos (8:25 EST). The 4-9 Denver Broncos are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-10 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Broncos got off the schneid last week, ending an eight-game losing streak with a 23-0 win over the Jets on Sunday. The Colts come in with zero momentum, having lost four straight, most recently a 13-7 loss in snowy Buffalo this past weekend. When these teams played last year it was Denver that scored the 34-20 win and suffice it to say, I expect a similar result in this one once it’s all said and done. Last week Denver shutout the Jets and knocked out New York’s starting QB Josh McCown. Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian had 200 yards, a TD and no picks. Overall the Broncos ranks 22nd in total offense with 312.1 YPG, while ranked first in total defense, allowing 280.5 YPG. Last week Colts’ RB Frank Gore had 130 yards on 36 carries. QB Jacoby Brissett so far has 11 TD’s and seven picks on the year. Indianpolis though ranks 30th in total offense this season, averaging just 290.7 YPG, while ranked 29th on the defensive side by conceding 375.3 per contest. Additionally I’ll point out that Devner is 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday” night games (playing on the short week), while Indianapolis is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the same position. I think the Broncos’ tough defensive unit proves to be the difference maker today. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Kings v. Wolves -10.5 | Top | 96-119 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
This is 10* Las Vegas Insider on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). I base my selections on many different things. For this particular pick I’m basing it on common sense. Minnesota had won two in a row before an OT loss to Philadelphia. But with three straight home games against suspect competition (with the Suns and Blazers up next), there’s no question that this sets up as an important early game for the playoff hopeful Wolves, who will look to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Sacramento comes in off a highly satisfying 99-92 win over Phoenix and I think it gets caught “looking ahead” to the remainder of its incredibly tough road trip, with upcoming stops at Toronto, Philadelphia and Brooklyn, before a game at home against the Spurs. I’ll point out as well that the Kings are interestingly just 1-5 ATS in their last six after a victory in which they’ve scored 100 points or less, while Minnesota is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Wolves. Good luck…Larry |
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12-14-17 | Ducks v. Blues -146 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -146 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Blues (8:05 EST). St. Louis comes in off a 3-0 loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday, snapping a four-game win streak, while the Ducks come in having won two of their last three. Note that a number of Anaheim players are questionable for this game, with LW Nick Ritchie and defenseman Hampus Lindholm both questionable. Anaheim got the job done 3-2 over Carolina in its latest action, but was outshot 30-23. The Blues’ Jake Allen looks to get back on track, he’s now 17-7-2. Note that Allen hasn’t seen more than 30 shots on goal in six straight games. Anaheim is a decent 5-4 on the road, but the Blues are 11-6 at home. I given Allen the big nod in net in this matchup and that alone will be more than enough for me to pull the trigger on the home side. Lay the price, play on the Blues. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-17 | Portland State v. Oregon -13.5 | Top | 84-95 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Oregon (10:00 EST). Portland State is 7-2. Deontae North leads the nightly charge with 19.2 points per game, while Bryce Canda chips in 16.4 points and 6.9 boards per game. Oregon is 7-3. Despite the loss of several key players from last season’s team which made a Final Four appearance, expectations are still very high for this year’s Ducks squad as well. Payton Richard leads the way with 15.8 points and 4.4 assists per night, while Elijah Brown adds 12.3 per game. Portland State is 8-0 ATS this year. Suffice it to say, I think that streak comes to an end tonight. I’ll point out though that the Pilots are still just 1-2 ATS in their last three after scoring 85 points or more in their previous contest (they’ve won four straight, most recently an 87-84 win over South Carolina), while the Ducks are already 4-1 ATS this season as a home fav of 12.5 points or more. Oregon knows how good Portland State is and won’t be “looking past.” I expect the deeper overall team to take advantage of familar surroundings and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable SU/ATS win/cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-17 | Blazers v. Heat OVER 202 | Top | 102-95 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the over Blazers/Heat (7:35 EST). Portland is going to be desperate today as it’s dropped five straight, most recently a 111-104 setback on the road at Golden State on Monday. Miami has won two straight, most recently a 107-82 destruction of the Grizzlies on Monday. Note that the Heat also play with double revenge after dropping both games to Portland last season. Both teams have been mediocre offensively this year and each has been decent defensively. Each is loaded with offensive talent though and I think the conditions are finally right for a higher-scoring affair. Note that both teams are dealing with injury issues with their centers. I’ll also point out that Portland has seen the total go over the number in five of eight as an underdog already this season, while Miami has seen the total eclipse the posted number in two of three this year after allowing 90 points or less and in nine of its last 13 after allowing 85 points or less. These are two teams which had big aspirations coming into the 2017/18 campaign, but each sits at just .500. This is an important early game for each of these non-conference foes and I expect a wide-open, faster-paced affair. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-13-17 | Stars v. Islanders -128 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -128 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the New York Islanders (7:05 EST). Dallas comes to town off a highly satisfying 2-1 road win over the Rangers, while the Isles also come in off a 3-1 home victory over the Capitals. So far the Stars average 2.87 GPG, while ranked 13th in goals allowed with 2.87. Goaltender Kari Lehtonen is 4-5 with a 2.49 GAA. Ben Bishop will be in net tonight though and he’s 13-9 with a 2.75 GAA, including jsut 4-6 with a 3.55 GAA on the road. New York averages 3.53 GPG and concedes 3.30. Goaltender Jaroslav Halak is 9-8 with a 2.82 GAA and 5-1 with a 2.39 GAA at home. I’ll point out that Dallas is just 17-35 in its last 52 after allowing two goals or less in its previous game, while New York is 8-2 in its last ten at home. New York has struggled on the road, but is 9-3 at home. Dallas has struggled on the road as well, going just 7-10 thus far. The home team is 6-1 the last seven in this series and I expect that strong trend to continue here. All things considered, this is a very fair price. Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-17 | 76ers +5.5 v. Wolves | Top | 118-112 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Philadelphia 76ers (8:05 EST). Philadelphia could be without big man Joel Embiid in this one, but whether he plays or not, I think the desperate 76ers will at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. And that’s because the visitors come to town having lost four straight, most recently a hard-fought 131-124 road loss to New Orleans on Sunday. The Wolves enter off a 97-92 home win over the Mavericks. These teams split a pair of games last year, with each winning on the others home floor. Philadelphia comes in averaging 108.2 PPG, while conceding 108.8. Ben Simmons averages 18 points, 9.1 boards, 7.7 assists and 2.08 steals per contest. Minnesota holds a 1.5 game lead in the Northwest Division. The Wolves average 107.1 PPG and concede 106.3. Andrew Wiggins averages 18.2 points, plus four boards per game. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is 9-5 ATS in non-conference games this year and 3-2 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while Minnesota is just 1-7 ATS in non-conference contests this season and just 4-8 ATS in front of the home town crowd. The Wolves have hit a very “vanilla” part of their schedule, with upcoming games against bottom feeders Sacramento and Phoenix at home next. It’s not too hard to imagine Minnesota get caught looking past their lowly Eastern conference opponent tonight. As mentioned off the top, whether Embiid plays or not, I think the intensity in which the 76ers play with tonight turns out to the be the difference. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-17 | Murray State -1.5 v. St. Louis | Top | 55-69 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Murray State (8:00 EST). Murray State is 6-1, while Saint Louis is 4-5. The Racers are at home against lowly Marist on Saturday, while the Billikens can’t help themselves in looking ahead to their big Pac 12 matchup against Oregon State next weekend. Murray State comes in on top form, winner of five straight. Terrell Miller had 25 points in the win over Illinois State last Saturday. The Billikens have struggled with offensive consistency at times and have been poor in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 4-15 ATS in their last 19 against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest and just 7-18 ATS in their last 25 non-conference games. Conversely, this is a spot in which Murray State has excelled, going 3-1 ATS this year in non-conference contests and 2-0 ATS when playing the role of favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on Murry State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-12-17 | Kings -136 v. Devils | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -136 | 30 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the LA Kings (7:05 EST). LA comes in off a 3-2 OT win at home over Carolina, while New Jersey enters off a 5-2 road loss at the Rangers. The Kings are rolling, winners of eight straight and averaging 3.08 GPG. LA is No. 1 defensively, conceding just 2.19 GPG. Goaltender Jonathan Quick is 15-9 with a 2.18 GAA, including 8-3 with a 2.14 GAA on the road. The Devils average 3.00 GPG and concede 3.06. Goaltender Cory Schneider is 11-9 with a 2.72 GAA, including 5-6 with a 2.77 GAA at home. New Jersey is just 6-7 at home this season. Additionally I’ll point out that LA is 8-1 in its last nine road games against a team with a losing home record, while New Jersey is just 15-36 in its last 51 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. LA is 10-4 on the road and Quick gets the big nod over Schneider here. I don’t expect LA to “look past” its opponent and all things considered, I do indeed feel this number could in fact be a lot larger. Play on the red hot Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-17 | Raptors v. Clippers +6 | Top | 91-96 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the LA Clipeprs (10:35 EST). The 17-7 Toronto Raptors are in LA to take on the 9-15 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Clippers broke a four-game slide with a gutty 113-112 home win over Washington last time out and I expect them to carry that momentum over here. And with an extended Eastern Conference road swing starting on Wednesday, tonight’s game takes on added importance for LA. The Raptors have won six straight and come in off a highly satisfying 102-87 victory over the Kings just last night. With a game at Phoenix on Wednesday, there’s no doubt that tonight’s contest sets up as a classic “letdown/lookahead” for the visitors in my opinion. LA is without leader Blake Griffin, but it still has five players that are averaging in double figures. Offense isn’t an issue for the Clippers, it’s their defense. Which normally would spell disaster facing the extremely deep and talented Raptors, but fortunately for LA it catches them on the tail-end of the back-to-back scenario. A great situational play in my opinion and a mistake made by the oddsmakers. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Clippers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-17 | Hurricanes +103 v. Ducks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the Caroilna Hurricanes (10:05 EST). The 11-10-7 Carolina Hurricanes are in Anaheim to take on the 12-11-7 Ducks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Carolina comes to town having lost five of its last six. The Hurricanes are struggling, but so too are the Ducks, who can completely empathize with their counterparts today as they’ve lost six straight after scoring two or fewer goals in their previous outing. Anaheim is struggling with several injuries to its offense as well. I’m calling Scott Darling and John Gibson a “wash” in net in this one, but note that Carolina is 5-2 (+2.7 units) in its last three after three or more consecutive losses, while Anaheim is already just 1-4 (-3 units) this year when playing with two days rest. I like Carolina to finally get off the schneid in this favorable machup. Great value, play on the Hurricanes. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-17 | Texas Southern +19.5 v. Oregon | Top | 68-74 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Texas Southern (10:00 EST). The 0-8 Texas Southern Tigers are in Oregon to take on the 6-3 Ducks and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely expect the visitors to keep this one a lot more interesting than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Texas Southern comes in off a tough 71-69 loss to Toledo, led by Donte Clark with 27 points. Demontrae Jefferson chipped in 25 points and three assists. So far the Tigers average 73.5 PPG. The Ducks average 86.2 PPG. Oregon gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today though in my opinion after its 95-65 rout of Colorado State in its latest action. Elijah Brown had 20 points, while Kenny Wooten added 13 points in that one. I’ll point out though that Texas Southern is 9-3 ATS in its last 12 following a SU loss, while Oregon is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after holding its previous opponent to 65 points or less. I like the desperate visiting side to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread that it’s been afforded. Play on Texas Southern. Good luck…Larry |
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12-11-17 | Patriots -10.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New England Patriots (8:30 EST). The 10-2 New England Patriots are in Miami to take on the 5-7 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a big game for the Pats, who with a victory today would wrap up their ninth straight AFC East title. TE Rob Gronkowski is out, but I don’t think that’s going to slow down Tom Brady and company one bit. The Fish come in off a 35-9 home win over the lowly Broncos last week, but I think they suffer a predictable letdown here. And if recent history is any precedence, then New England has to be liking its chances today, because when these teams met on November 26th, it was the Patriots that came away with the relatively simple 35-17 victory. So far the Pats average 413.2 YPG, while allowing 375.7. Last week Miami’ QB Jay Cutler had 235 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The Dolphins average just 292.6 YPG and concede 339.9. I’ll point out that New England is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 following an ATS victory, while Miami is 0-8 ATS in its last eight Monday night contests and just 1-5 ATS in its last six as the underdog in this series. I like New England and Brady to control this one on both sides of the ball and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points, play on the Patriots. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | 76ers v. Pelicans UNDER 223.5 | Top | 124-131 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under 76ers/Pelicans (7:05 EST). Philadelphia hung tough in a 105-98 setback in Cleveland just last night. Big man Joel Embiid was sitting that one out, but he will be back in the line-up tonight to face the twin towers in New Orleans (at least one of the two for sure anyways.) I think the visitors are “gassed” tonight and with the focal point of their offense running through their big-man, we can expecting a lot of “half court sets” from the visiting side as it looks to control the pace of this one. The Pelicans have lost five of their last seven, most recently a listless setback to the lowly Kings. New Orleans clearly can’t be happy and it’ll also be looking to take control of this one from the get-go. I’ll point out that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in eight of 14 non-conference games already this year, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 16 as a favorite this season. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Jaguars | Top | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). The 8-4 Seattle Seahawks are in Jacksonville to take on the 8-4 Jaguars and for a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors. Seattle is still within striking distance of the division lead after beating Philadelphia 24-10 on Sunday. QB Russell Wilson had 227 yards and three TD’s. Note that Wilson is tied for second in the NFL with 26 TD’s and he also has 432 rushing yards on the year. The Seahawks will be confident as they come in having won four straight road games after opening season setbacks at Green Bay and Tennessee. The Jags are tied with the Titans for the divison lead and they smashed the Colts 30-10 this past Sunday. QB Blake Bortles went for 309 yards and two TD’s. The Jacksonville defense posted four sacks and it now leads the league with 45 total. I’ll point out though that Seattle is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four on the road, while Jacksonville is a poor 1-5 ATS in its last six following an ATS victory. As good as Bortles has looked of late, I’m still giving the nod to Wilson in this matchup. And that’s the difference maker for me. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Eagles v. Rams -1 | 43-35 | Loss | -125 | 142 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). LA has won six of its last seven, most recenlty coming off victories over the Saints and Cardinals. Philadelphia is 10-2, but it comes in off a tough setback in Seattle and suffice it to say, I think it’s primed for another letdown in Week 14. Philadelphia allows 17.9 PPG. But clearly the Eagles hit a wall last week and note that this is in fact a position in which they’ve struggled in mightily for bettors, going just 1-3 ATS in its last four following a SU loss. RB Todd Gurley had 74 yards on 19 attempts for the Rams last week. QB Jared Goff had two TD strikes in the 32-16 win. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 8-3-1 ATS in its last 12 home games agianst teams with winning road records. I think the Eagles are running out of gas, while the Rams are just starting to hit their stride. Play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers +3 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 140 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 14 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car Panthers at 1;00 ET. Carolina has questions marks with some of its key pieces on offense, but QB Cam Netwon will be under center. TE Greg Olson, RB Jonathan Stewart and WR Devin Funchess are all listed as day-to-day, but I still think that the home side will find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The Vikes control the NFC North and come to town off eight straight victories. The Panthers look to get back on track as they saw their four-game win streak end in a loss to New Orleans last weekend. Minnesota didn’t look overly impressive offensively in last week’s 14-9 win over Atlanta, but Case Keenum had 227 yards and two TD’s. In last week’s loss to the Saints, Newton had 183 yards, two TD’s and INT’s. Carolina though is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 30 points or more in its previous contest, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to ten points or less. In conclusion, Atlanta's 20-17 win Thursday night over New Orleans was great news for the Panthers. Carolina can now move back into a first-place tie with the 9-4 Saints in the NFC South with a win. The Falcons and Saints play again in Week 16, so the Panthers have a great chance to "make a move." This contest with the Vikings is the first of three straight home games, with the Packers (no Rodgers?) and the Bucs (just 4-8, currently), up next. The Vikings have done everything right and the team's D has been superb but remember, this is Minnesota's THIRD straight road game. The Vikings are a very good team but they are NOT a great team! Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns +3.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 21 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Cleveland Browns (1:00 EST). The 6-6 Green Bay Packers are in Cleveland to take on the 0-12 Browns and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. After losing five of six, the Packers came up with a win over Tampa Bay last weekend. Green Bay’s offensive line has given up 42 sacks this year, which doesn’t bode well for Packers’ backup QB Brett Hundley in my opinion. So far Hundley has five TD’s on 206 attempts to go along with eight iNT’s. Cleveland only averages 14.7 PPG, but it does possess a Top 10 defense in terms of yardage given up. WR Josh Gordon returned in last week’s loss and looked impressive. Duke Johnson Jr. is a decent RB. QB DeShone Kizer isn’t great, but he’s hungry. Green Bay’s win last week was encouraging, but the team faces an uphill battle with Aaron Rodgers still not at 100%. I do firmly believe this is Cleveland’s greatest chance this season to get off the schneid. While I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Cleveland Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Alabama +8.5 v. Arizona | Top | 82-88 | Win | 100 | 29 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on Alabama (10:00 EST). Alabama comes to town off a 68-64 home win over Rhode Island, while Arizona held on for a 67-64 win over Texas A&M in its latest action. The Crimson Tide average 79 PPG and concede just 69.8. Donta Hall had 13 points, while Daniels Giddens and John Petty each chipped in 12 in the Tides most recent victory. The Wildcats average 83.6 PPG and concdes 73.0. The Aggies were ranked No. 7 in the nation at the time, so Arizona clearly has to be feeling pretty good about itself after its latest victory. Four different players scored exactly 13 points apiece. I’ll point out though that Alabama is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range, while Arizona is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home fav in the same points range. The Tide haven’t played particularly well of late, while the Wildcats come in off their biggest win of the year. Desperation breeds motivation and winning leads to complacency though. While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do definitely feel that the Crimson Tide will give the Wildcats everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points, play on Alabama. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Magic v. Hawks -2 | Top | 110-117 | Win | 100 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). Orlando took the first game of this home and home series 110-106 in OT on Wednesday. Suffice it to say, I think it’s “payback” time! Atlanta averages 102.8 PPG and concedes 108.6. Dennis Schroeder leads the way with 20.5 points, plus 6.5 assists per game, while Marco Belinelli chips in 12 points and 2.5 boards. Note that the Hawks are tied for fourth in the league in three point shooting percentage (37.9.) The Hawks haven’t played since the loss to the Magic, but Orlando was in action just last night, falling 103-89 at home to the Nuggets. It’s interesting to note that Orlando is just 4-7 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106-plus points per contest, while ATL is 5-3 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per game. I think Orlando comes in with “heavy legs” and I look for the revenge minded Hawks to take full advantage. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Islanders v. Bruins -143 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Boston Bruins (7:05 EST). New York comes in off a disheartening 4-3 OT loss to Pittsburgh, while the Bruins enter off an easy 6-1 home win over the Coyotes. After a great streak, the Isles have come crashing down to Earth of late, having dropped three of their last four. New York averages 3.64 GPG and concedes 3.39. Goaltender Jaroslav Halak is 8-7 with a 2.99 GAA, including 4-6 with a 3.12 GAA on the road. The Bruins average 2.84 GPG and concede 2.80. Tuukka Rask is 6-10 with a 2.52 GAA on the year, including 5-5 with a 2.40 GAA at home. Rask has dominated the Isles throughout his career though, going 10-5 with a 2.39 GAA. New York is just 2-6 in its last eight in this series, while Boston is 16-5 in its last 21 home games against teams with a losing road record. The Isles are just 8-9 on the road this year and I think their sloppy play carries over in Bean-town. Lay the price, play on the Bruins. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Pacific +9.5 v. Wyoming | 72-86 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Pacific (6:00 EST). Pacific enters off a 71-67 road loss to UC-Davis. Anthony Townes was a bright spot with 16 points and ten boards. Roberto Gallinat was also a stand out, going 7 of 13 from the floor for a team-high 19 points. Wyoming returns home off back-to-back road losses itself, most recently falling 80-64 at South Carolina, hitting just 33.9 percent from the floor, including only six of 25 from range. Justin James led the way with 20 points and 12 boards. I think Pacific has a group which can keep this one competitive. The Tigers matchup well against the Cowboys and note that they’re 5-2-2 ATS in their last nine road games and 5-1-1 ATS in their last seven road games against teams with a winning home record. Wyoming on the other hand is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after faling to register 65 or more points in its previous outing. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but all signs point to a “nail biter.” Grab the points, play on Pacific. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Army v. Navy -3.5 | Top | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 144 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Navy (3:00 EST). The 8-3 Army Black Knights get ready to battle the 6-5 Navy Midshipmen in the annual Army/Navy game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Midshipmen. Army comes in off a disturbing 52-49 loss to North Texas, while Navy fell 24-14 to Houston in its latest action. Note that this is a revenge game for Navy. Last year Army would break a 14-game losing streak in the series, prevailing 27-17. The 52 points and 489 total yards given up last week were both season highs for Army. Overall the Black Knights were strong defensively this year, but I think there’s cause for concern if you’re an Army fan. Army leads the country with an average of 368 rushing yards per game. Navy QB Zach Abey was just 2 of 4 for 45 yards last week. But like the Knights, the Midshipmen are a run first offnese, as Abey has 1,322 rushing yards, along with 14 major scores on the ground this season. RB Malcom Perry was a bright spot in Navy’s most recent loss, rushing for 82 yards on 15 carries. Army has beaten up on “lesser” competition all year and the Black Knights defense was exposed in the loss to North Texas. Adittionally note that Army is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 5-6 ATS this season on games played on “turf,” while Navy is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 5-3 ATS in games played on turf. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the day. Lay the points, play on Navy. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Indiana +11 v. Louisville | 62-71 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Indiana (2:00 EST). The 5-4 Indiana Hoosiers get ready to battle the 5-2 Louisville Cardinals on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Hoosiers. Louisville comes in off a win over Siena, while Indiana ended a two-game slide with a win over Iowa on Monday. The Hoosiers forced 18 turnovers and four players averaged double-figures in the 77-64 win over Iowa. Keep your eyes on Juwan Morgan, who leads the team with an average of 13.8 points and 6.3 rebounds per game. Cardinals forward Deng Adel had 18 points in his teams 86-70 win over Siena on Wednesday. I’ll point out though that Indiana is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 65 points or less in its previous contest, while Louisville is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 85 points or more in its previous contest. The Cardinals have won 59 of their last 61 non conference games at home and while I’m not calling for that streak to end, I do believe that the Hoosiers have the legs to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Duke -15 v. Boston College | 84-89 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Duke (12:00 EST). The 11-0 Duke Blue Devils get ready to battle the 6-3 Boston College Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Blue Devils. Boston College enters off an uninspiring 73-61 win over Hartford on December 2nd, while Duke annihilated St. Francis 124-67 in its latest action. Duke’s had some blowout wins, but it’s also been in some battles, beating Texas 85-78 in OT, Michigan State 88-81 and Indiana 91-81 on the road. So far the Blue Devils average 94.2 PPG and concede just 73.9. Marvin Bagley III finished with 21 points and 11 boards in the win over St. Francis. Boston College averages 75.4 PPG and concedes 67. The Eagles won their last game without forward Deontae Hawkins in the lineup, recently injuring himself for the remainder of the season. However, I think that’s bad news facing the Nation’s No. 1 team. Additionally I’ll point out that Duke is 7-0-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while BC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games. For all the reasons listed above, play on Duke. Good luck…Larry |
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12-09-17 | Youngstown State +26.5 v. Butler | 67-95 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Youngstown State (12:00 EST). The 2-7 Youngstown State Penguins are at Butler to take on the 7-2 Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Youngstown State enters desperate and off an 89-73 loss at DePaul, marking its fifth straight setback. Butler comes in on the other end of the spectrucm, content after a fourth straight win in an 81-69 victory at home over Utah. The Penguins average 79.8 PPG and concede 82.9. In their loss to DePaul on Saturday Braun Hartfield scored 23 points and added five assists. Butler averages 72.9 PPG and allows 65.9. Kelan Martin had 29 points and 11 boards in the Bulldogs win over Utah. I’ll point out though that Youngstown State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after three or more consecutive losses and 4-2 ATS in its last six when playing with five or six days rest, while Butler is just 1-2 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more and just 1-2 ATS in its last three against poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest. I think the Bulldogs have a bit of a mental lapse here facing the lowly Penguins. I’m not calling for an outright upset or anything, but I do definitely feel that the conditions are right for a much closer affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, play on Youngstown State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Wild -108 v. Ducks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Wild (10:05 EST). Minnesota looks to get back on track after a 5-2 loss to the Kings, while the Ducks look poised for a letdown here in my opinion after prevailing 3-0 over the hapless Senators in their latest action. Minnesota averages 2.92 GPG, while allowing 3.00. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk is 11-10 with a 2.78 GAA and owns an elite 2.12 GAA in 14 career matchups with Anaheim. Anaheim averages 2.62 GPG and allows 3.00. Goaltender John Gibson is 8-12 with a 2.97 GAA. Gibson has had success against the Wild in the past (3-1, 1.19 GAA), but note that the Ducks are a horrible 8-9 (-4.3 units) in their last 17 after shutting out their opponent in their previous game. Conversely, this is a spot in which the Wild have excelled in this season, going 4-2 (+1.6 units) against clubs with losing records and 7-5 (+2.4 units) after allowing four goals or more. I’m calling the goaltenders a “wash” in this one, but the numbers do indeed point to the visitors as the correct call in my opinion. Play on the Wild. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Air Force v. UC Riverside +1.5 | Top | 48-67 | Win | 100 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Cal Riverside (10:00 EST). The 5-4 Air Force Falcons get ready to battle the 2-6 UC Riverside Highlanders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Cal Riverside. The Falcons most recently fell 62-58 to Abilene Christian on Wednesday, while the Highlanders fell 70-59 to Pepperdine. Air Force averages just 68.6 PPG, while conceding 67.7. In the loss to Albilene Christian, the Falcons shot just 3 of 16 from range. Leading scorer Ryan Manning had just six points in the setback. Cal Riverside averages 63.4 PPG and concedes 71.9. In the loss to Pepperdine, Chance Murray led the charge with 15 points and five boards. I’ll point out though that Air Force has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 after scoring 60 points or less and only 5-8 ATS in its last 13 when playing against a team with a losing record. Conversely, Cal Riverside has done well in this position, going 3-1 ATS in its last four after failing to score 60 points in its previous outing. I think the Highlanders are the “hungrier” team in this matchup and that’s going to be the difference maker for me. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Kings v. Pelicans UNDER 211 | Top | 116-109 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Kings/Pelicans (8:05 EST). The Kings are “gassed” in the final game of their four game trip. Sacramento comes to town off a 111-105 loss at Cleveland on Wednesday. The Pelicans won for just the second time in six games with a 123-114 home win on Wednesday night. The Kings average just 95.6 PPG, while conceding 105.5. De’Aaron Fox averages 10.1 points, 3.2 boards and 4.1 assists per game. Buddy Heild adds 12 points per contest. The Pelicans average 109.4 PPG and concede 110.2. DeMarcus Cousins averags 25.9 points, 12.6 boards and 5.1 assists per game. Note though that Sacramento has seen the total go under the numer in two of three already this year after playing three consecutive road games and in interestingly four of seven this season against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest, while New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight this year against teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Bulls v. Hornets OVER 203.5 | 119-111 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Bulls/Hornets (7:05 EST). These are two teams hungry for a victory and I’m expecting this overall sense of urgency from both sides to translate into offensive production on the floor. The Bulls have lost nine straight, most recently a 98-96 setback to Indiana on Wednesday, while the Hornets enter off a listless 101-87 home setback to the Warriors. But if recent history is any precedence, then we should absolutely expect a higher-scoring shootout between these teams, because when they met back on November 17th, it was Chicago that won 123-120. Chicago averages only 95.7 PPG, while conceding 106.8. Justin Holiday leads the nightly charge with 14.3 points and 4.3 boards per game. Charlotte averages 104.6 PPG and concedes 106.2. Kemba Walker averages 22.7 points and 6.2 assists, while Dwight Howard chips in 15.1 points and 12.1 boards per game. Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago has seen the total go over the number in seven of 12 on the road this season, while Charlotte has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of 11 as a favorite this year and in three of four after a loss by ten points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-08-17 | Warriors v. Pistons OVER 212 | 102-98 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Warriors/Pistons (7:05 EST). The Warriors have won five straight, most recently winning 101-87 in Chicago on Wednesday, while the Pistons have lost four straight, most recently falling 104-100 in Milwaukee on Wednesday night. When these teams played on October 29th, it was Detroit which scored the 115-107 road win. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Golden State averages 117.8 PPG and concedes 106.4. Kevin Durant averages 25.1 points, 6.6 boards and 5.2 assists per game. Detroit averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 102.7. Tobias Harris leads the nightly charge with 19.2 points and 5.3 boards per game, while Reggie Jackson adds 16.4 points, plus 5.5 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Golden State has seen the total go over the number in nine of 15 on the road already this year, while Detroit has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of ten at home. Golden State wants to cap its road trip with perfect record and to avenge the earlier loss to Detroit. The Pistons are desperate to break their string of shoddy play. When you add it all up and take into account the above trends, this number is indeed a little low in my opinion. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-17 | Rockets v. Jazz OVER 206 | Top | 112-101 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Super Total is on the over Rockets/Jazz (10:35 EST). The Rockets come in off their seventh staright win, most recently smashing the Lakers 118-95 on Monday. Utah also comes in hot, although it did have its six game win streak snapped in a 100-94 road loss to the Thunder on Tuesday (was the final game of its road trip and the second game of a back-to-back.) These two teams are polar opposites when it comes to their overall “game plan.” The Rockets like to push the pace from start to finish, relying on their offense to outscore their opponents in most cases. The Jazz are a defensive orietned club, but with big man Rudy Gobert out, the game-plan has changed. Utah has been pushing the pace as well and the results have been encouraging. With a night off to rest, I think Utah returns to its recent form which saw it win six straight. Additionally I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go over the number in 42 of its last 75 after scoring 115 points or more, while Utah uas seen the total soar above the posted number in eight of its last 14 against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-17 | Flyers v. Canucks -118 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -118 | 32 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Vancouver Canucks (10:05 EST). No need to overthink this one. Philadelphia ended a ten-game losing streak with a win over Calgary and then followed it up with a 4-2 victory in Edmonton just last night. Vancouver comes in rested and focused and on top form, having won three straight. The Canucks have outscored their opponents 10-4 during their win streak, scoring the 3-0 shutout over Carolina in their most recent action. I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 1-3 in its last four in the second game of a back to back after scoring four goals or more in a victory in the first contest, while the Canucks are 2-1 in their last three after three or more consecutive victories. This line could easily be a lot bigger in my opinion as the oddsmaker’s are giving the red hot Canucks little respect in this great situational matchup. Play on Vancouver. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-17 | Saints v. Falcons +1 | Top | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 74 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Falcons (8:25 EST). The 9-3 New Orleans Saints are in Atlanta to take on the 7-5 Falcons on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. A loss to division rival New Orleans this week would likely be too much for Atlanta to climb out of. The Falcons come in off a 14-9 loss to Minnesota. The Saints come in off a satisfying win over division rival Carolina at home and I think they have a letdown here against the now desperate Falcons. New Orleans ranks second in total offense with an average of 408.6 YPG, while ranked 12th in total defense by allowing 330.1 YPG. Atlanta ranks eighth in YPG with 365.2, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding 321. New Orleans has been fantastic in almost every single ATS statistical category there is this year, but note that it’s just 1-2 ATS in all games when the line is set between +3 and -3 (and just 2-6 ATS in its last eight in the same position), while Atlanta is a perfect 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of three points or less and 11-5 ATS in its last 16 as an underdog overall. Division contests always mean the most and they almost always mean more to the home side. This has essentially become a “do or die” for Matt Ryan and company and I believe they answer the call at home on the short week. Play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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12-07-17 | Elon v. NC-Greensboro -6 | Top | 44-75 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on NC Greensboro (7:00 EST). The 6-3 Elon Phoenix get ready to battle 5-3 UNC Greensboro on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Spartans. I think Elon has a letdown here after winning three straight. Most recently the Phoenix won 71-65 in OT to Saint Peter’s. Tyler Selbring had 31 poitns and seven boards in the one, while Brian Dawkins added 21 points and eight boards. UNC Greensboro broke a two-game slide with a 76-75 victory over Liberty on Saturday. The Spartans held the Flames to just 32.8 percent shooting and were able to overcome shooting just 30.4 percent themsevles by getting 21 more attempts off. Francis Alonso led the way with 36 points, four rebounds and three assists. I’ll point out though that Elon is already just 1-5 ATS in non-conference games this year, while UNC Greensboro is 3-0 ATS in non-conference contests. I think that the Phoenix have a letdown and I look for the Spartans to build off their latest victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-17 | Pacific v. UC-Davis -7 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 40 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UC Davis (10:30 EST). Pacific enters off a 105-68 home win over lowly Arkansas-Fort Smith, while UC Davis comes in off an 81-67 road win over Washington State. So far Pacific averages 77.0 PPG, while conceding 71.8. Six players scored in double figures in the teams most recent victory, led by Lafayette Dorsey with 17 points. UC Davis averages 68.3 PPG and concedes just 62.7 (ranked 35th overall.) In their latest victory, the Aggies got 20 points from TJ Shorts. I’ll point out that Pacific is just 6-20 ATS in its last 26 following a SU victory, while UC Davis is 15-5-2 ATS in its last 22 in front of the home town crowd. UC Davis comes in off the momentum and confidence building win over the Pac 12 team and I think it carries over here. The Aggies’ defense turns out to be too much for the Tigers to contend with down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-17 | Heat v. Spurs OVER 197.5 | Top | 105-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the over between the Miami Heat and the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). The 11-12 Miami Heat are in San Antonio to take on the 16-8 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. Miami enters off a listless 123-95 home loss to Golden State, while the Spurs come in off a 95-92 win over Detroit on Monday. When these teams played in late October, it was San Antonio that punched the 117-100 road victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Miami will be desperate here, as it’s lost three of its last four games. So far the Heat average only 100 PPG, while conceding 103.7. Goran Dragic averages 17.6 PPG. San Antonio averages 100.6 PPG and allows 97. LaMarcus Aldridge leads the team with 22.8 PPG and had 31 in the first victory over Miami. I’ll point out as well that the Heat have seen the total go over the number in two of three already this year against good defensive clubs which concede 98 points or less per contest, while San Antonio has seen the total eclipse the posted number in ten of its last 16 in front of the home town crowd. Miami will look to take San Antonio out of its comfort zone, which means that the Heat will be pushing the pace from start to finish. This can still be a relatively lower-scoring game and and go over this very low number and that’s exactly what I expect. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-17 | Southern Illinois v. St. Louis | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 27 h 1 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Saint Louis (8:00 EST). The 4-2 Southern Illinois Salukis get ready to battle the 3-4 Saint Louis Billikens and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Saint Louis. The Billikens will be desperate here as they’ve lost four in a row as they get ready to battle the Salukis, who come to town having won two straight, most recently over San Jose State. Southern Illinois center Kavion Pippen and 22 points in the win over San Jose State, also blocking five shots and making four steals over his last two games combined. Saint Louis won three in a row to open the year, including a 77-71 win over Virginia Tech, but it’s since gone 0-4. Keep your eyes on guard Javon Bess, who is averaging 15.3 points and who had a career-high 22 points in a listless 75-45 setback to Butler this past weekend. Additionally I’ll point out that Southern Illinois is already 0-2 ATS this year as an underdog, while Saint Louis is 3-2 ATS in its last five after three or more consecutive losses. I think the Salukis remain competitive with Pippen, but I expect the Billikens to risk life and limb today to get back into the win column after the extended stretch of futility. Play on Saint Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-17 | Kings v. Cavs UNDER 210.5 | 95-101 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER-TOTAL on the under between the Sacramento Kings and the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:05 EST). The Kings come to town off a 109-104 road loss to Milwaukee on Saturday, while the Cavs enter off their 12th straight win, a 113-91 road victory over the Bulls on Monday. So far Sacramento averages just 95.7 PPG, while allowing 105.7. Zach Randolph averages 13.9 points, plus 6.3 boards per game, while De’Aaron Fox chips in 10.3 points and 3.3 boards per contest. The Cavs average 111.5 PPG and concede 108.1. LeBron James averages 28 points, 7.9 boards and 8.5 assists per game. Note that Sacramento has seen the total go under the number in ten of 19 this year when playing the role of underdog, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of ten this season after three or more consecutive SU victories. The last thing the Kings can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to win and with three whole nights off to game-plan, I look for the visitors to come out with a concerted effort. When you add it all up, this number is indeed just a little bit high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-06-17 | Toledo v. Detroit +5 | 89-86 | Win | 100 | 26 h 11 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Detroit (7:00 EST). The 4-3 Toledo Rockets get ready to battle the 4-4 Titans on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Deroit. Toledo enters off a 71-69 home win over Texas Southern, while Detroit lost 106-73 to UCLA in its latest action. When these teams met last year, it was the Rockets that scored the 73-65 win, so the “revenge factor” does come into play here. So far the Rockets average 75.3 PPG and concede 77.1. Nate Navigato had 16 points in his team’s latest victory. Detroit averages 91.1 PPG and concedes 92.5. Kameron Chatman had 18 points in the loss to the Bruins. I’ll point out though that Toledo is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 70 points or less in its previous contest, while Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four following a SU loss of more than 20 points. Five players average double-digits for the Titans, which doesn’t bode well for this weak Toledo defense. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-17 | Wizards v. Blazers OVER 203 | Top | 106-92 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is the over Wizards/Blazers (10:05 EST). Washington was without star guard John Wall in the line-up last night and the result was a disastrous 116-69 setback in Utah. Wall won’t be playing tonight either, but I’m expecting a much more spirited effort from the under-manned, but hungry Wizards this evening. The Blazers are also out to atone for some recent shoddy play, most recently falling 123-116 at home to the Pelicans on Saturday night. Note that when these teams met on November 25th, it was the Blazers which managed the 108-105 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well. Washington averages 107.8 PPG and concedes 103.8. Both those numbers however will decline because of Wall’s absence. The Blazers average 103.2 PPG, while conceding 100. Damian Lillard averages 25.5 points and 6.2 assists per game, while CJ McCollum adds 21 points a night. I’ll point out that Washington has seen the total go over the number in two of its last three against teams with losing records, while Portland has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 25 of its last 45 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest. These are two hungry teams and despite a few injuries, I’m expecting a very wide open affair as each pushes the pace from start to finish. This number is a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-17 | Utah +5 v. Butler | Top | 69-81 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Utah (9:00 EST). The 6-1 Utah Utes get ready to battle the 6-2 Butler Bulldogs and while I of course wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for this one to come right down to the wire. Both teams comes in hot. Utah has won two straight, most recently over Hawaii, while Butler has won three straight, most recently over Saint Louis. Donnie Tillman had 18 points for the Utes in the 80-60 win over the Rainbow Warriors (sixth consecutive game he’s finished in double figures.) Butler has won 39 non-conference home games, which includes its latest 75-45 win over Saint Louis. Kelan Martin led the way with 20 poitns and 12 boards. From a trend based stand point, this one favors Utah though, as note that the Utes are 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 2-0 ATS after allowing 60 points or less in their previous outing, while Butler is just 2-3 ATS this season against schools with winning records and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 60 points or less. I think the Utes’ depth gives them much more than just a “punchers chance” in this matchup. Grab the points, play on Utah. Good luck…Larry |
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12-05-17 | Rangers v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Fan Appreciation O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is the under Rangers/Penguins (7:35 EST). New York comes to town off a 5-1 home win over the Hurricanes, while Pittsburgh enters off a 5-1 home win over the Sabres. New York averages 3.31 GPG and concedes 2.96. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 13-8 with a 2.66 GAA. Lundqvist has had plenty of success against the Penguins over his career, posting a solid 2.51 lifetime GAA (in over 60 games played!) The Penguins average 2.96 GPG and concede 3.21. Goaltender Tristan Jarry is 4-2 with a 1.99 GAA, including 3-0 with a 2.07 GAA at home. I’ll point out that New York has seen the total go under the number in six of ten this year against teams with winning records, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go under in five of seven home games when the total in the contest is set at 6 or more. I think these goaltenders will be the main story line in tomorrow’s summaries. Play the under. Good luck….Larry |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals +6 | Top | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cincinnati Bengals (8:30 EST). The Bengals season is for all intents and purposes on the line tonight and as such, we’re clearly not going to have to question the home sides overall effort this evening. This is also a revenge game for Cincinnati after it dropped the first matchup with the Steelers 29-14 back on October 22nd. If the Bengals can pull off the upset, they’ll move back to .500 (6-6), with a very winnable game at home against the Browns on deck. This is a make or break part of the entire 2017/18 campaign for Cincinnati. Pittsburgh on the other hand has won six straight, but had to hold on for dear life in last week’s 31-28 home win over the Aaron Rodger-less Packers. The Steelers’ defense is starting to show signs of fatigue and I think the unit has another letdown here against this revenge minded and improving Bengals offense. Additioanlly I’ll point out that Pittsburgh is just 7-10 ATS in its last 17 after two or more consecutive SU victories, while Cincinnati is 3-2 ATS as an underdog this season and 10-7 ATS in its last 17 against the division. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-17 | Cavs v. Bulls UNDER 211.5 | Top | 113-91 | Win | 100 | 28 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Cavs/Bulls (8:05 EST). The Cavs come to the Windy City having won 11 straight, most recently getting the better of Memphis 116-111 on Saturday. The Bulls enter having dropped eight straight, most recently a 107-106 setback at home to the Kings. The Cavs average 111.4 PPG and concede 108.9. LeBron James is arguably having the best start of his entire career by averaging 28.3 points, 7.9 boards and 8.7 assists per game. The Bulls average just 95.9 points and concede 107. Justin Holiday leads the nightly charge with 14.7 points plus 4.2 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in three of four already this year after a non-conference game, while Chicago has seen the total dip below the posted number in interestingly, seven of ten this season against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest and in seven of 11 in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Cleveland handled Chicago 119-112 back on October 24th and comes into this one red hot. But the Cavs have hit a “vanilla” part of their schedule, with upcoming games against a series of bottom feeders (Kings, Pacers, Hawks.) I think the Cavs come in a bit complacent here. And the last thing Chicago can do is turn this into a “track meet” and expect to win. When you add it all up, this number is just a little high in my opinion. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-17 | Bruins v. Predators -132 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 28 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* NHL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST). Boston comes to town off a 3-0 win over the hapless Flyers, while Nashville enters off a 3-2 shootout win over the lowly Ducks. The Bruins average 2.71 GPG, while conceding 2.79. Netminder Tuukka Rask comes off the strong outing against Philadelphia, but overall he’s been terrible, going just 5-10 with a 2.65 GAA, including only 1-5 with a 2.80 GAA on the road. Nashville averages 3.04 GPG and concedes 2.81. Goaltender Pekka Rinne is 15-6 with a 2.35 GAA, including 10-2 with a 2.52 GAA at home (note that he’s 4-2 with a 2.07 GAA lifetime against Boston.) Additionally I’ll point out that Boston is just 1-6 in its last seven trips to Nashville, while the Predators are 4-1 in their last five against the Eastern Conference. I like Rinne to outduel his currently inconsistent counterpart and all things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price, play on the Predators. Good luck…Larry |
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12-04-17 | Texas-San Antonio +23.5 v. Oklahoma | Top | 85-97 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on UTSA (8:00 EST). The 5-4 UTSA Roadrunners are in Oklahoma to take on the 5-1 Sooners and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The Roadrunners come in having lost back-to-back road games, most recently falling 88-80 to Utah Valley State on Saturday. Keaton Wallace had 21 points and five assists, while Deon Lyle chipped in 13. Oklahoma has won three straight, most recently getting the better of North Texas 82-72 on Thursday. Trae Young lead the way in that one with 32 points and ten assists. The Sooners have been rolling, but note that they’re still only 11-26 ATS in their last 37 when playing the role of favorite and just 1-4 ATS in their last five in front of the home town crowd. The Roadrunners have been struggling, but they’re hungry and note that they’re 10-4 ATS in their last 14 as an underdog and 7-1 ATS in their last eight against opponents with a win percentage of .600 or greater. With upcoming games against USC and Wichita State, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side getting caught “looking past” its lowly opponent today. As I stated off the top, I’m not expecting an outright upset, but I do expect a competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Eagles v. Seahawks +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 132 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 3 Las Vegas Insider is on the Sea Seahawks at 8:30 ET. Yes, the Eagles have won nine straight, own the NFL's best record at 10-1 and also its best point-differential at plus-160. However, are you aware that the Eagles have played just two teams which currently own a winning record? They lost to the Chiefs 27-20 back in Week 2 and note that KC is just 6-5, after having lost five of its last six. Then there is Philly's 28-23 win at Carolina in Week 6 and for sure, the Panthers are proving to be one the NFC's best teams at 8-3. However, since that win at Carolina, the Eagles' last five wins have come over Washington, San Francisco, Denver, Dallas and Chicago. Only Washington and Dallas are competitive (both are 5-6) but note that Philly met Dallas without "Zeke" (0-3 without Elliott), LT Smith and LB Lee. As for the trio of the 49ers, Broncos (losers of seven straight) and the Bears, they own a combined record of 7-26 (.212). It's true that Seattle's defense is not what it used to be and that the running game is highly suspect but Russell Wilson is carrying this offense. Let's mention that he is a remarkable 37-7 SU (.841) at home as a starting QB in the regular season and the Seahawks haven't been a home dog this big since Wilson took over the job under center in his rookie season of 2012. "Just for grins," I went back to Week 1 of the 2017 season and checked the power ratings of Seattle and Philadelphia. If these teams would have met in Week 1 at Seattle, the Seahawks would have been favored by eight points. That means we've had a two-TD swing (give or take)! You make the call!! No, let me. Play on the Seahawks. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Clippers v. Wolves -12.5 | Top | 106-112 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (7:00 EST). The Clippers lost the services of Blake Griffin to a knee injury for a few weeks and last night they came out and laid and egg in a 108-82 setback in Dallas. The Wolves have been alrternating wins and losses of late and most recently fell 111-107 to a desperate OKC team on the road on Friday. LA averages 105.9 PPG, while conceding 107.2. Griffin had been leading the nightly charge with 23.6 points, plus 7.9 boards per game, but DeAndre Jordan is the main man now with Griffin sidelined. Jordan averages 10.8 points, plus 13,8 boards per game. Minnesota averages 107.7 PPG and concedes 107.4. Karl Anthony Towns averages 20.5 points and 11.6 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 19.2 points and 4.1 boards. I’ll point out that LA is 0-5 ATS in its last five in the second game of the back to back, while Minnesota is a solid 5-0-1 ATS in its last six against the Western Conference. The Clippers are “gassed” and under-manned. The Wolves are rested and hungry. This will be a slaughter from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Browns +14 v. Chargers | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 102 h 11 m | Show | |
My 9* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Cleveland Browns (4:05 EST). The 0-11 Cleveland Browns are in LA to take on the 5-6 Chargers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Cleveland comes to town off a 30-16 loss to Cincinnati last week, while the Chargers got by the Cowboys 26-6 on the road on Thanksgiving. The Browns only win came against the Chargers last season (20-17.) Last week Cleveland QB DeShone Kizer was 18 of 31 for 268 yards with no TD’s or INT’s. Kizer has for the most part struggled this year, but I’m expecting him to produce against the inconsistent Chargers’ secondary. RB Isaiah Crowell was a bright spot last week with 95 rushing yards on 16 carries. The Chargers looked great on the defensive side of the ball last week, holding the Cowboys to 247 total yards, including just 79 on the ground. That was of course without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the line-up. Dallas is a mess without Elliot, so I’m not reading too much into last weeks defensive performance by the Bolts. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers was 27 of 33 for 434 yards and three TD’s in last week’s win. He’s been fantastic overall with a 20/7 TD/INT, but regression at some point does seem imminent in my opinion. Is the fact that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS its last four against the AFC West relevant in this situation? It doesn’t hurt (it’s also very interesting to note that LA is jsut 1-4 ATS in its last five against the AFC North.) Additionally I’ll point out that the Chargers are just 1-2 ATS in their last three after two or more consecutive wins. With Washington coming to town next weekend, I also believe that the home side gets caught “looking ahead.” While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do like Kizer and the hungry Browns to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons -2.5 | 14-9 | Loss | -130 | 99 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST). Minnesota has won seven in a row and I think it finally comes up short this weekend. The Vikes were most recently in action on Thanksgiving, taking care of business against Detroit. The Falcons come in on a three-game win streak, coming out on the right side of Dallas, Seattle and Tampa Bay. These teams are both on fire. The Vikes get the job done with an awesome defensive unit which leads the league in most categories. Case Keenum has emerged as an above par game manager. The run game and special teams are also strong, so when you add it all up you have a team which for the most part is pretty tough to matchup against. The Falcons though have found their swagger. Matt Ryan and Julio Jones are putting up impressive numbers (Jones had over 250 yards receiving last week). Atlanta also looked sharp defensively last week. So where’s the value? I’ll point out that Minnesota is interestingly just 2-6 ATS in its last eight games played on a grass field, while Atlanta is 13-6 ATS in its last 19 following a SU win and interestingly, 4-1 ATS in its last five after scoring more than 30 points in its previous game. I expect a war, but I think Ryan will in the end get the better of Keenum and I believe the Vikes’ defense finally “cracks.” Lay the points, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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12-03-17 | 49ers v. Bears -3 | 15-14 | Loss | -120 | 99 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). The Bears look to stop a four-game slide on Sunday. Here comes the perfect opponent to get untracked against. San Francisco looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after it snapped a season-opening nine game skid with a win over the Giants, followed by an immediate return to mediocrity in a setback to the Seahawks this past Sunday. San Francisco will be turning to Jimmy Garoppolo moving forward. He entered in last week’s win after starter CJ Beathard went down with injury and in the end he managed a ten-yard TD strike to Louis Murphy on the final play. The Bears couldn’t get anything going in last week’s 31-3 loss to Philadelphia. Mitchell Trubisky struggled and so too did the ground game, producing just 65 yards. I’ll point out though that San Francisco has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five against the NFC, while Chicago is still 3-1-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. The Bears’ run game will return to the norm here, previous to last week’s poor performance they’d held down the No. 5 rushing attack in the league. A tough spot for Garoppolo as well. I think Chicago’s defense and run game prove to be too much for the inconsistent visitors this afternoon. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Oilers v. Flames -139 | Top | 7-5 | Loss | -139 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Calgary Flames (10:05 EST). The Flames come in off a convincing 3-0 home win over Arizona and I expect the team to carry that momentum over here. The Oilers continue to struggle as they come in off a 6-4 home loss to Toronto. With four nights off after this contest, it’s not too hard to imagine Edmonton getting caught looking ahead here as well. Note only does Calgary play with revenge after a 3-0 setback to Edmonton on October 4th, but note that it’s done extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 4-2 (+1.5 units) against division opponents and 6-4 (+2.2 units) trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Conversely, this is a spot in which the Oilers have really struggled in, going just 3-7 (-5.8 units) this year after allowing four goals or more in their previous contest. This line could easily be a lot larger in my estimation. Great value, play on the Flames. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Kings v. Bucks -11.5 | Top | 104-109 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:35 EST). No need to overthink this one in my opinion. Sacramento comes in off an extremely rare 107-106 win in Chicago just last night and I fully expect a predictable letdown here. Milwaukee enters off a second straight win after beating Portland 103-91 on the road Thursday. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Bucks have to be loving their chances for another big performance tonight, because when these teams played in Sacramento just last week, it was Milwaukee which secured the relatively simple 112-87 victory. Despite last night’s win, note that the Kings still average just 94.7 PPG, while ranked last in the league in three point shooting at just 38.1 percent from range. The Bucks average 102.9 PPG and concede 103.9. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 29.2 points, 10.1 boards, 4.5 assists and 1.74 steals. The Bucks are a deep team, which gets balanced scoring. I’ll point out as well that Sacramento is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five in the second game of a back-to-back scenario, while Milwaukee is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six against a team with a win percentage below .400. Milwaukee returns home off a successful trip and just hammered the Kings by 25 last week. All signs point to another blowout, so lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Miami-FL +7.5 v. Clemson | 3-38 | Loss | -130 | 152 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The Hurricane had a letdown in their finale, falling 24-14 at Pittsburgh to finish 7-1 in conference action, while the Tigers also went 7-1 in the ACC and would go on to spank South Carolina 34-10 in their final regular season game. The Hurricanes clearly got caught “looking ahead” to this game and stumbled at the worst time last week. Regardless of that “dud” though, Miami Florida comes in ranked 40th in the country in scoring with 31.9 PPG average, while ranked 15th overall on the defensive side by conceding just 18.3 PPG. Miami QB Malik Rosier has 2,798 yards with a 25/9 TD/INT ratio. Clemson averages 35.2 PPG and concedes 13.6. QB Kelly Bryant has 2,426 yards and a 12/6 TD/INT, while also running for 639 yards and ten more TD’s. The Hurricanes are banged up at RB, but note that Miami Florida is 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Also note that Clemson is still just 3-5 ATS in its last eight against the conference. I think last week was a wake up call for Miami Florida. The Hurricanes have the defense to slow down this dynamic Clemson offense and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do expect the hungry/taltented Canes to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Fresno State -5.5 v. Long Beach State | Top | 106-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Fresno State (7:00 EST). The 5-2 Fresno State Bulldogs get ready to take on the 3-5 LBSU 49ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. Fresno State enters off an 80-67 win over Weber State, while Long Beach State enters off a 91-56 loss to Arizona on Wednesday. Fresno State has won three straight. So far the Bulldogs average 79.9 PPG, while conceding 70.1. In the win over Weber State, the Bulldogs shot 52 percent from the floor and went 22 of 29 from the charity stripe, led by Jaron Hopkins with 29 big points. LBSU averages 73.6 PPG and concdes 82.6. In the loss to the Wildcats the 49ers shot just 41 percent from the floor, led by Bryan Alberts with a team-high 12 points. I’ll point out that Fresno State is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games and 20-6 ATS in its last 26 following an ATS victory, while LBSU is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 off a SU loss. Five players are averaging double figures for the Bulldogs. I think Fresno State’s depth proves to be too much for LBSU to keep up with down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | Georgia +2.5 v. Auburn | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 147 h 23 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia (4:00 EST). My one and only 10* College Football GAME OF THE YEAR was on Auburn last weekend and the Tigers would go on to beat No. 1 Alabama outright. But for the SEC Championship Game, I’m “flipping the script” and going with the underdog again, as I expect Auburn to come in “hung over” still from that emotional upset victory. There’s a lot on the line today, as the winner will almost assuredly get an invite to the College Football Playoff. Since losing to Auburn earlier in the year, Georgia bounced back by hammering Kentucky 42-13 and then smashing Georgia Tech 38-7 this past weekend. Georgia racked up 247 rushing yards in that one. Which wasn’t the case in the first game against the Tigers, who limited the Bulldogs to just 46 yards. QB Jake Fromm was just 13 of 28 for 184 yards, one TD and no INT’s, while Auburn’ QB Jarrett Stidham had 214 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. “You don’t shake a memory,” Georgia head coach Kirby Smart assessed earlier in the week. “You put it in their face and you challenge people. Fundamentally, we’ve got to play better than we played last time and we obviously have got to play with more discipline and composure to avoid the knucklehead decisions that we had in the game. You can’t give good teams things. If you give them things, it makes it twice as hard…. But at the end of the day, it really is not about the game before. It’s really about the motivation in the game. Our kids understand that. They know they’ve got an opportunity to go out and at least erase what they did last time. This is a fresh start to go out and play a new game.” I’ll point out though that Georgia is 7-2 ATS in its last nine trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (including 4-0 ATS this season), while Auburn is just 5-6 ATS in its last 11 off a win against a conference rival. I think Georgia rides the “revenge” angle to victory today. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-02-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma -5.5 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 144 h 4 m | Show | |
8* PERFECT STORM on Oklahoma (12:30 EST). The No. 2, 11-1 Oklahoma Sooners get ready to battle the No. 10, 10-2 TCU Horned Frogs on Saturday afternoon in the Big 12 Championship game and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Sooners. When these teams played on November 11th from Norman, Oklahoma smashed TCU 38-20, rolling up 533 yards of offense, including 333 through the air from dynamic QB Baker Mayfield (3 TD’s.) THe Horned Frogs come in off a 45-22 home win over Baylor last Saturday. QB Kenny Hill had 325 yards and three TD’s. Hill has 2,604 passing yards and a 19/5 TD/INT. The TCU offense averages 422.1 YPG (47th), while the defense has been hit or miss, great against the run (90 YPG) and poor against the pass (227.5 YPG allowed.) The Sooners will need to win this game to keep their College Football Playoff hopes alive. Mayfield finished with 4,097 yards and a 37/5 TD/INT. Oklahoma’s weakness comes on the defensive side, where it allows 390.3 YPG, including 241.2 through the air. Oklahoma averages 45.2 PPG though and I simply can’t see Hill and company matching pace down the stretch. Mayfield is a man on a mission right now. Also note that TCU is just 2-4 ATS this year off a win against a conference rival, while Oklahoma is 4-3 ATS this year in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-17 | Wolves v. Thunder -4.5 | Top | 107-111 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). Minnesota comes to town off a very satisfying 120-102 road win over New Orleans on Wednesday, while Oklahoma City dropped its third straight in a listless 121-108 road loss to Orlando on Friday. Note that the Wolves are already 2-0 in the season series with OKC this year, meaning that the Thunder are definitely out for some revenge tonight. Minnesota averages 107.8 PPG and concedes 107.2. Andrew Wiggins averages 19 points and 4.1 boards per game, while Karl-Anthony Towns adds 20.4 points and 11.7 boards. OKC averages just 102.3 PPG, but it concedes just 99.3. Russell Westbrok averages 22.4 points, 9.2 boards, 9.5 assists and 2.2 steals per game, while Paul George adds 20.5 points, 5.9 boards and 2.75 steals per game. I’ll point out that Minnesota is just 1-3 ATS this year already after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Oklahoma City is 5-3 ATS at home this season and 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Thunder. Good luck…Larry |
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