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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-17 | Chiefs +8.5 v. Patriots | Top | 42-27 | Win | 100 | 1884 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). After winning the AFC West last year, the Chiefs knew that the perennial East-champion Patriots would be on the schedule in 2017. That KC heads to Foxboro in the opener makes a difficult game even more of a test. But the Chiefs – who may be the best team that no one talks about -- could be looking at at least a cover in this one. Kansas City may be one of the few teams in the league not intimidate by Belichick & Brady – the Chiefs gave the Patriots a decent game in the playoffs a few years ago before running out of gas, and the year before that laid a 41-14 regular-season beating on New England. This time around things could hinge on how KC’s solid secondary does against Brady and a slew of new and talented players that NE has brought on board. Keeping new burner WR Brandin Cooks is a must for keeping the Chiefs in this one until the fourth quarter, which will go a long way toward covering the number. One other note – the Chiefs are 43-21 over the last four seasons and have won three straight openers. Good luck...Larry |
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09-07-17 | Cubs -138 v. Pirates | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 42 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (9-7, 4.46 ERA) who returned from the DL to earn a win over ATL after allowing four runs while striking out four over five innings. Over his last 12 starts Lester has posted a 3.84 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9. Note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.38 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side counters with the volatile Jameson Taillon (7-5, 4.50) who comes in off a strong outing against the light-hitting Reds on Saturday, alliwng just three hits over six scoreless innings. I’m not going to read too much into one decent outing, as note that previous to that Taillon had posted a poor 6.60 ERA and given up 16 walks in six starts in August. Recent form exhibited by these starters suggests that Lester and the Cubs could in fact be much larger favorites in this particular matchup. Value swings to the visitors, play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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09-07-17 | Marlins -115 v. Braves | 5-6 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 32 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:35 EST). Ultimately I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the Oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (9-8, 3.91 ERA) who picked up a win against Philadelphia on Saturday despite not being at his best, allowing four runs while striking out four over five innings. Straily came into that one having given up three runs or fewer over six straight outings, so I won’t read too much into one sub-par performance (note that of his 28 starts this year, Straily has allowed more than three earned runs in just six of those.) The home side counters with rookie Sean Newcomb (2-8, 4.31) who gave up three runs off eight hits with three walks in a loss to the Cubs on Thursday. Newcomb does have 83 strikeouts over 79.1 innings of work, but note that he’s also walked 47 batters for a poor 5.33 BB/9. I like Straily to get back on track and continue his solid season, while all signs point to another long night for Newcomb. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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09-06-17 | Cardinals v. Padres +110 | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 1 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe as I look for the home side to bounce back after yesterday’s defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Jack Flaherty (0-0, 11.25 ERA) who earned a no-decision in his debut after allowing five earned runs off eight hits over four innings in an 11-6 victory over San Francisco. The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (7-6, 4.40) who struck out ten and gave up just one run off six hits and three walks over six frames in an unfortunate loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Friday. Lamet has now posted three quality efforts out of his last four trips to the mound and owns a 3.18 ERA and 56 K’s while allowing just three home runs over 51 innings since the Mid Summer Classic. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that the Padres could easily be big favorites in this matchup. Great value on the home side here, play on San Diego. Good luck…Larry |
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09-06-17 | Cubs -135 v. Pirates | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST). I like the defending champs to bounce back after yesterday’s 4-3 defeat. The Cubs hand the ball to Jose Quintana (9-11, 4.49 ERA) who comes in off a victory over Pittsburgh on Wednesday, striking out nine and giving up three runs without a walk in the eventual 17-3 victory. Quintana has been “hit or miss” for his new club, but has been at his best in all “night” contests this season by posting a respectable 3.81 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile Gerrit Cole (11-9, 4.11) who gave up five runs off six hits over six innings while striking out six against Cincinnati on Friday. Cole has now been shelled for at least three runs in five of his last six starts (note that he’s just 2-5 with a 4.48 ERA at home.) Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago is 44-30 (+1.9 units) in all “night” games this year, while Pittsburgh is just 40-53 (-16.3 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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09-06-17 | Angels -123 v. A's | 1-3 | Loss | -123 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Angels (3:35 EST). Neither pitcher instills much confidence, but I think LA will build off its 8-7 victory last night. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Skaggs (1-4, 4.89 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Friday, allowing six runs off five hits and three walks while striking out one over two innings. Skaggs has been more “miss” than “hit” this year, but despite an 0-2 record, he’s been at this best on the road this season with a respectable 3.82 ERA thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Sean Manaea (9-9, 4.52) who most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. Like his counterpart today, Manaea has looked brilliant at times this season and really poor in others. Despite a 5-3 record, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.60 ERA at home. Additionally I’ll point out that LA is 15-12 (+2.2 units) in its last 27 when playing against teams with losing records, while Oakland is just 7-12 (-2.8 units) in its last 18 against clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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09-05-17 | Diamondbacks +110 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 110 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). I think Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Greinke (16-6, 3.08 ERA) gave up one run off four hits while striking out six over six innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Thursday. Greinke’s 16 wins are the best in the majors and to go along with his solid 3.08 ERA he also sports a sharp 1.07 WHIP and elite 9.8 K/9. The home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-7, 3.71) who was rocked for six runs off eight hits by Arizona on Wednesday. Granted outings like that have been few and far between for Ryu, but recent form displayed by these starting pitchers tonight suggests that the value is on Greinke. I like Arizona to take advantage of this favorable matchup with its ace on the mound. Good luck…Larry |
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09-05-17 | Nationals -158 v. Marlins | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (7:10 EST). Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (11-4, 2.90 ERA) who comes in off a complete-game shutout victory over Miami on Wednesday, scattering six hits with one walk while striking out eight. Strasburg carries a 20 inning shutout streak into this one and he’ll now be looking to improve upon his already impressive 7-2, 2.23 ERA record on the road. The home side counters with Odrisamer Despaigne (0-2, 4.13 ERA) who comes in off a loss against Philadelphia on Thursday, allowing three runs off five hits and two walks with three strikeouts over four innings. I’ll point out that Miami is just 45-49 (-2.3 units) in all “night” games this year, while Washington is 52-27 (+22.8 units) in all night contests. For all the reasons listed above, I think Strasburg is worth the price of admission in this spot. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-05-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -160 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 54 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Marco Estrada (7-8, 5.23 ERA) who gave up six runs off ten hits over five innings in a forutnate victory over Baltimore on Thursday. Estrada has now been shelled for 18 runs over his last 21.1 innigns of work and to go along with his poor 5.23 ERA he also sports a ballooned 1.45 WHIP. Unfortunately a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked either as note that he’s just 3-5 with a 5.58 ERA away from friendly confines this season. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-5, 4.40) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Yankees on Thursday, allowing five runs over five innings. Rodriguez has struggled of late as well, but not nearly to the degree of Estrada. And note that Toronto is a poor 36-49 (-21.6 units) in all “night” games this year, while Boston is 57-41 (+6.4 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, I’m going to lay the slightly larger than normal price for what I expect to be a beatdown from start to finish. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-17 | Diamondbacks +138 v. Dodgers | 13-0 | Win | 138 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (8:10 EST). I played against the Dodgers last night and just like in that contest, I feel that the underdog has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as well. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (11-5, 2.97 ERA) who comes in of a gem against these very Dodgers on Wednesday, allowing one run and striking out ten over seven innings of work. Since returning from the DL Ray has posted a 1.54 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and 19/4 K/W spanning 11.2 innings of work. Ray has now struck out ten or more batters in seven games this year and he sports an elite 11.74 K/9 as well. Also that he’s 6-1 with a 1.49 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Rich Hill (9-6, 3.71) who gave up six runs off eight hits over 3.2 innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Hill was on the verge of a perfect game in his last start, but predictably came back down to Earth in this one. Hill has been solid overall this year, but has been scuffling a bit of late. It’s interesting to note that LA is just 6-7 (-5.2 units) when playing on a Monday this season, while Arizona is 8-2 (+6.3 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-17 | Tennessee v. Georgia Tech +4 | Top | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 202 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Georgia Tech (8:00 EST). This one is being played in the Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia. Tennessee finished 9-4 last year and would prevail 38-24 over Nebraska in the Music City Bowl, while Georgia Tech was 9-4, winning the TaxSlayer Bowl 33-18 over Kentucky. These teams haven’t faced each other since 1987. The Vols gave up at least 31 points six times last year. Tennessee though was ranked 24th in the country in scoring with 36.8 PPG. The Vols don’t have Joshua Dobbs under center anymore. Coach Butch Jones has not committed to a No. 1 starter yet, so expect to see both Jarrett Guarantano and Quinten Dormady getting time. RB John Kelly is back after posting 580 yards and seven TD’s last season. Georgia Tech ended the year winning six of its final seven after starting 3-3. Last season the Yellow Jackets would score at least 30 points in eight of their games. Georgia Tech was decent on both sides of the ball last year, finishing 70th in scoring (28.2) and 39th in scoring defense (24.5) QB Justin Thomas is gone, meaning that Matthew Jordan will likely be named No. 1 to open the season. The Yellow Jackets have a stable of great RB’s, which helps with their dangerous triple-option attack. I’ll point out that Tennessee is just 1-2 ATS in its last three neutral site affairs, while Georgia Tech is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four in the same position. Both offenses will have to go through growing pains to open the season. Georgia Tech’s offense though relies on the ground game, not the QB’s arm. The Vols have a new QB, new RB’s and new WR’s. The Yellow Jackets have the superior defense in my opinion as well. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Georgia Tech. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-17 | Astros -155 v. Mariners | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Houston Astros (6:40 EST). Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Dallas Keuchel (11-3, 2.91 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against Texas on Wednesday, allowing six runs off five hits over six innings (also striking out seven.) Over seven starts since returning from the DL, Keuchel has posted a 5.35 ERA and 28/17 K/W over 38.2 innings of work. Before he landed on the DL he was 9-0 with a 1.67 ERA and 69/18 K/W. Keuchel though has the pedigree and track record to finish up strong and get back on track. And note, despite scuffling of late he’s still a highly respectable 6-1 with a 3.62 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Erasmo Ramirez (5-5, 4.43) who gave up two runs over six innings in a 4-0 loss to Baltimore on Tuesday. After a shaky start for Seattle, Ramirez has looked a lot better of late. He’s been better at home than on the road as well this season, but I’ll point out that he still owns a pedestrian 4.99 ERA in all “night” games. Additionally I’ll point out that Houston is 37-20 (+7.5 units) against the division, while Seattle is only 26-27 (-2.9 units) against divisional foes. I like Keuchel to outduel his counterpart and I look for the hard-hitting Astros to take advantage of his favorable matchup. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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09-04-17 | Angels -143 v. A's | 11-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the LA Angels (4:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Parker Bridwell (7-2, 3.52 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the A’s on Wednesday, allowing seven runs over three innings in what turned out to be a fortunate no-decision. Bridwell has a chance to redeem himself here, note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in all day games and 4-0 with a 2.00 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Chris Smith (0-4, 6.27) who was crushed in August by going 0-3 with an 8.49 ERA over five starts. Note that he owns an uninspiring 5.01 ERA at home as well. Additionally I’ll point out that LA is 49-46 (+8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Oakland is just 44-56 (-8 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-17 | West Virginia v. Virginia Tech -4.5 | Top | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 178 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF WEEK is on Virginia Tech (7:30 EST). These border rivals get ready to play a neutral site matchup, although they haven’t played against each other since 2005. Both teams are starting new QB’s this year, with Josh Jackson at Virginia Tech and WVU turning to Florida transer Will Grier. Grier had Florida at 6-0 in 2015 before testing positive for steroids. He’ll be joined by RB Justin Crawford, who had 1,184 yards and four TD’s last year. The offensive line is a big concern for the Mountaineers though as they try to replace LT Yodny Cajuste and All-American center Tyler Orlosky. The defense allowed 24 points and 425.9 YPG last season. However, once again there are major concerns about the line, as WVU has to replace all three starting lineman from its 3-3-5 defense. Jackson will be leaning heavily on WR cam Phillips for the Hokies this year, as he’d finish with 76 passes for 983 yards and five TD’s last season. Jackson will also be turning to RB Travon McMillian, who rushed for 677 yards and seven TD’s. VT’s defense is expected to be solid out of the gates as it returns three linebackers and three of the four secondary starters. Last year the unit gave up an average of just 340.7 YPG. I’ll point out as well that WVU is 0-4 ATS in its last four neutral site gams, while VT is 2-1 ATS in its last three in the same position. Grier is a question mark in my opinion having not played competitively since 2015. The Virginia Tech defense looks much better than West Virginia’s as well. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Hokies. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-17 | Dodgers v. Padres +185 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 185 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (4:40 EST). I think that Jhoulys Chacin has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Especially as he’ll be throwing at home. Chacin (11-10, 4.03 ERA) comes in off a loss against San Francisco on Monday despite allowing only one run off two hits and four walks while striking out three over five innings on Monday. Chacin has been far from perfect this season, but he’s consistently been at his most consistent at home by going 7-3 with a tiny 1.85 ERA. San Diego held on for the 6-5 win last night and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Clearly it won’t be easy facing Alex Wood (14-1, 2.41 ERA) who comes off the DL to make this start. Wood has been a complete surprise this year with solid numbers across the board. His elite numbers don’t seem sustainable to me though. LA is setting the standard as far as statistics are concerned this season. San Diego is once again a bottom feeder, but it’s been tough at home with a 35-32 (+6.8 units) record. I think Chacin matches Wood inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Play on San Diego. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -107 | 5-1 | Loss | -107 | 21 h 34 m | Show | |
(NOTE: The incorrect side has been chosen here. This is a play on the DIAMONDBACKS. Sorry for the mistake!) Despite this game being played at hitter friendly Coors Field, I still think this favors the hard-throwing Zack Godley. Godley (6-7, 3.29 ERA) comes in off a win against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing four runs with five strikeouts over six innings of work. Godley has been scuffling a bit of late, but still sports a strong 28/11 K/W over his last 22 innings of work (owns a very respectable 3.11 ERA on the road as well.) The home side counters with German Marquez (10-5, 4.18) who gave up three runs off seven hits in a no-decision against Detroit on Tuesday. Marquez has been solid since the All Star Break and owns a decent 4.48 ERA at home. I’ll point out though that Colorado is just 6-9 (-2.6 units) in its last 15 against teams with winning records. Arizona is surging at the plate and I think that trend carries over here. Godley matches Marquez inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value turns to the underdog. Play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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09-03-17 | Royals v. Twins -150 | 5-4 | Loss | -150 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Twins (2:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors turn to Ian Kennedy (4-10, 5.47 ERA) who gave up seven runs off six hits with two walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Monday. Kennedy has been a complete disaster of late, posting just one quality start in his last six appearances while failing to finish the third inning twice in his last three trips to the hill. Note that over his last four outings he’s also been crushed for eight home runs. The home side counters with Ervin Santana (14-7, 3.27) who gave up three runs off seven hits and two walks with seven strikeouts over 6.2 innings to beat the White Sox on Tuesday. Santana has been trending in the opposite direction, having posted quailty efforts in five of his past six tries. Note that he has to be feeling confident that he can keep the momentum rolling in this spot, as he’s 5-2 with a tiny 2.38 ERA in all “day” games this season. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Kennedy has another long afternoon ahead of him. This line should be much higher in my opinion, swinging the value to the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Florida State +7.5 v. Alabama | 7-24 | Loss | -130 | 155 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Florida State (8:00 EST). I’m not going to call for the outright upset (although I wouldn’t be shocked), but I think that FSU will at the very least take this one down to the wire and sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This one is being played in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta Georgia. The Seminoles return 15 starters and 48 lettermen overall from a squad that went 10-3 last season (that included a 33-32 victory over the Wolverines in the Orange Bowl.) FSU is led by QB Deondre Francois, an offense which was 40th in the nation in rushing last year, 33rd in passing and 25th in total offense while averaging 35.1 PPG overall. The Seminoles were horrible defensively over the first four games last year, allowing 42.3 PPG in that span. They’d recover the rest of the way though to allow only 18.5 over the final eight. And now FSU brings back 24 of 27 lettermen from that group, including ten starters. Alabama has been to the playoffs in each of the last three seasons and has one title to show for it, getting upset 35-31 by Clemson last year. The Tide return 11 starters. Alabama will be dominant on the defensive side of the ball, it allowed just 13.0 PPG and 262 YPG last season. Jalen Hurts will once again be under center, last year he threw for 2,780 yards, 23 TD’s and nine INT’s. He aslo ran for 954 yards and 13 TD’s. Damien Harris is back as well, last year he ran for 1,037 yards. I think it’s interesting to note though that Florida State is 3-0 ATS in its last three against the SEC, while Alabama is 0-2 ATS in its last two agains tthe ACC. I think the Noles are the complete package this year and I expect them to at the very least, come away with the comfortable covers once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Phillies v. Marlins -124 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to beileve. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (10-9, 3.46 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against the light-hitting Braves on Monday, allowing five hits and one run over seven innings for the victory. Previous to that though Nola had given up 12 runs spanning 11.1 frames of work and two starts. The home side counters with Dan Straily (8-8, 3.80) who also comes in off a big performance, holding the Padres to two runs while stirking out five over seven innings. It was Straily’s sixth consecutive start in which he’s allowed three runs or less (owns a very respectable 3.01 ERA at home as well so far this year.) Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is already 23-29 (-1.2 units) this year following a victory, while Miami is 34-33 (+4.1 units) following a loss. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Appalachian State v. Georgia OVER 45.5 | Top | 10-31 | Loss | -102 | 59 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Week 1 Goin' Over Total (CFB Sep Total of the Month) is on App St/Georgia Over at 6:15 ET. The date was September 1, 2007 and Appalachian State, then an FCS program, visited "the Big House" to take on the Michigan Wolverines, who were ranked No. 5 in both major polls. Sure, the Mountaineers were ranked No. 1 in the FCS poll and were preseason favorites to win their third consecutive FCS national championship, but the pointspread (Michigan favored by 33) spoke volumes as to the Mountaineers' perceived chances in this contest. I'm sure many remember how the game ended with Appalachian State taking a 34-32 lead with 26 seconds left and then blocking a game-winning field goal attempt from Michigan at the end of regulation to secure the win. Appalachian is now an FBS team and while the Mountaineers have not had much luck on the road against Power-5 schools since the Michigan 'miracle' (more on that later), they do open 2017 as the preseason favorite to win the Sun Belt, after tying for first in 2016 at 7-1 with Arkansas St (App St finished 10-3 with a 31-28 win over Toledo in the Camilla bowl). Mark Richt was Georgia's head coach for 15 years, going 145-51, while leading the Bulldogs to a bowl berth in each season. However, he fell out of favor with the Bulldog faithful and was let go (he landed in Miami). Kirby Smith, Nick Saban's DC at Alabama from 2008-15, took over and was a popular choice. Georgia would go 8-5 in 2016, including a win in the Liberty Bowl over TCU (31-23 at plus-3). While Appalachian State was the choice of the league coaches and select media to win the Sun Belt, Georgia was picked by the media attending SEC Media Days to win the East Division. Sophomore Jacob Eason returns as Smart’s starting QB but the Georgia offense finished 87th in the country in total offense last season. Georgia had averaged between 32.0 and 41.3 PPG from 2010 through 2014 but these last two seasons, has averaged just 26.3 and 24.5 (in 2016). Eason did record a pair of 300-yard games last season but he has to do better than his 55.1% completion percentage in 2016. RBs Nick Chubb and Sony Michel are talented (almost 2,000 combined rushing yards in 2016) but the key will be staying healthy. If so, Georgia will have a dominant rushing attack. The only starter that Georgia lost from its 2016 defensive unit was nickel back Maurice Smith, meaning the defense that ranked 16th nationally in total defense last season will be intact for the most part. Taylor Lamb is a Georgia native and a fourth-year starting QB for Appalachian State. He passed for 2,281 yards and 15 TDs last season, while also rushing for 505 yards and nine scores. RB Jalin Moore is back after rushing for 1,402 yards as a sophomore, when he was named the Sun Belt Conference's offensive player of the year despite sharing the workload with then-senior Marcus Cox, the school's career rushing leader. The Mountaineers averaged just over 250 YPG on the ground in 2016 (5.6 YPC) and on the season, averaged 29.2 PPG. The defense was terrific in 2016 in allowing just 17.8 PPG but here's the rub. It's one thing to dominate SBC schools and an entirely different thing to match up against a Power-5 school on the road. Going back to where I started, Appalachian St's upset of Michigan back in 2007. Since that memorable game, the Mountaineers are 0-7 SU against Powr-5 schools on the road,with the average loss by 33.0 PPG. In researching all seven games, I found than Appalachian St allowed an average of 44.7 PPG to those seven opponents, a far cry from the team's 17.8 PPG average of 2016. Now I sure like QB Kamb and RB Moore for teh Mountaineers and won't be surprised at all if they can move teh ball and score on a solid Georgia D. However, note that Georgia QB Eason is a former five-star QB recruit, so with the help of Chubb and Michel (both healthy at the moment), why can't Georgia roll up the points against an Appalachian St defense which has allowed an average of 44.7 PPG in its last seven games on the road against a Power-5 school? This total opened 47. It's Goin' Over! Good luck...Larry |
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09-02-17 | Red Sox v. Yankees -130 | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the New York Yankees (1:05 EST). I think the home side will bounce back here after yesterday’s 4-1 defeat. The visitors turn to Drew Pomeranz (14-4, 3.23 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and five walks with four strikeouts over seven innings in a win over the Jays on Monday. Pomeranz has started to scuffle of late, as he’s now walked at least four opponents in back-to-back outings. The Yanks counter with Masahiro Tanaka (10-10, 4.69) who comes in off a gem against the Mariners on Sunday, allowing one run off six hits while striking out ten over seven innings. It was Tanaka’s fourth quality start out of his last five trips to the hill and he’s now limited the opposition to one or fewer walks in nine of his last ten starts overall. Recent form displayed by these starters suggests that this line could in fact be a lot larger in my professional opinion. Value swings to the home side here, play on the Yankees. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Bowling Green v. Michigan State -17.5 | 10-35 | Win | 100 | 147 h 31 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Michigan State (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Both teams come in off disappointing campaigns. Bowling Green was one of the highest scoring teams in the nation in 2015 with 42.2 PPG, but in 2016 it averaged only 24.8. The Green Falcons return QB James Morgan, who comes in off a pretty mediocre season. In all the offense returns six starters. The receiving corp and RB’s look solid, but the concern out of camp is along the offensive line. Last year the defense allowed 38.3 PPG. The unit should see significant improvement this year with 22 of 28 lettermen back from that side of the ball, including six starters. Regardless, it’s still a weak point and one which I look for the Spartans to exploit. Michigan State is looking for redemption this year after a 3-9 season. The Spartans will be leaning heavily upon RB LJ Scott, who had 984 yards and six TD’s last year. At QB is Brian Lewerke, who saw some playing time last season. The Spartans were decent defensively, allowing 27.8 PPG. The unit should make some strides this season as well and clearly it catches a break in facing the Green Falcons to open the 2017/18 campaign. Additionally I’ll point out that Bowling Green is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Michigan State is 3-2 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. The Spartans have a good shot at making it back to a bowl game this year and I look for the home side to come out extremely focused as it looks to start the new season off on the “right foot.” Lay the points, play on Michigan State. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Kent State v. Clemson -38.5 | 3-56 | Win | 100 | 147 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Clemson (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Kent State was 3-9 last year. The Golden Flashes faced two Top 25 opponents and lost 48-0 to Alabama and 37-21 to WMU. The Tigers are the defending National Champions, but move forward of course without QB Deshaun Watson. The Golden Flashes head coach Paul Haynes is out for the first few weeks because of medical reasons, meaning that OC Don Treadwell will serve in the interim. Treadwell doesn’t have much to live up to as Haynes is an abysmal 12-35 in his four years as head coach of Kent State. Clemson coach Dabo Swinney will be prowling the sidelines tonight though and he’s made Kelly Bryant the starter. Bryant has just 75 yards and one TD in 18 career attempts. He’ll be sharing time though with Zerrick Cooper and Hunter Johnson. Whoever wins the starting job has a plethora of offensive talent surrounding them, including Ray-Ray McCloud, Deon Cain and Hunter Renfrow. I’ll point out as well that the Golden Flashes are just 11-24 ATS in their last 35 non-conference games, while the Tigers are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 at home. Kent State is a great appetizer to warm up on. Tigers roll. Good luck…Larry |
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09-02-17 | Akron v. Penn State -32 | Top | 0-52 | Win | 100 | 147 h 30 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (12:00 EST). Suffice it to say I’m expecting a rout from start to finish in this one. Akron finished 5-7 last year, while Penn State was 11-3. The Nittany Lions will be out to atone for a 52-49 loss to USC in the Rose Bowl though and that’s bad news for the lowly Zips obviously. Akron dropped four straight to end the season and the defense was the major issue, as it would allow at least 38 points seven times. In their lone matchup against a Big Ten opponent last year, the Zips were destroyed 54-10 by Wisconsin on the road. Akron averaged 27.4 PPG and allowed 33.6. QB Thomas Woodson had 2,079 yards, 18 TD’s and six INT’s. Woodson’s top two receivers are gone though. The Nittany Lions finished 21st in the country with an average of 37.6 PPG last year. They were ranked 47th on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. QB Trace McSorely had 3,614 yards, 29 TDs and eight INT’s, to go along with 365 rushing yards and an additional seven TD’s on the ground. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on RB Saquon Barkley, who had 1,496 yards rushing and 18 TD’s. I’ll point out that Akron is notorious for getting out to slow starts, having gone just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 games in September. Also note that Penn State is a solid 5-0-1 ATS in its last six at home. The Nittany Lions started 2-2 last year, so will be looking to get out to a much quicker start this time around. Look for the home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-17 | Boston College -3 v. Northern Illinois | 23-20 | Push | 0 | 132 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Boston College (9:30 EST). Boston College was 7-6 last year, but was just 2-6 in the ACC. The Eagles closed the season strong though with three straight wins, including beating Maryland 36-30 in the Quick Lane Bowl. I like Boston College to carry that momentum over here and to take advantage of a Northern Illinois team which finished 5-7 last year. The Huskies started four different QB’s last season. NIU has been a powerhouse in the MAC for almost a decade, but it has just 13 victories over the last two seasons. NIU is expected to test three different signal callers today in Ryan Graham, Daniel Santacaterina and Marcus Childers. The Huskies lost their top RB from last year in Joel Broughton, but have a capable replacement in Jordan Huff, who finished with 703 yards and five major scores last year. Despite the rotation at QB, the Huskies were decent offensively (3rd in conference), but it was their defense which was a disaster, allowing 30.3 points and 451.5 YPG BC returns seven starters on the defensive side of the ball, including DE Harold Landry, who led the country in sacks with 16.5. The Eagles’ front seven is expected to once again be among the best in the nation. BC struggled offensively last year, managing just 20.4 PPG. The Eagles have two options at QB, Darius Wade, who has the most experience, and redshit freshman Anthony Brown who many believe will eventually win the job. Brown is a legitimate dual threat. I’ll point out that Boston College is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine against the MAC, while NIU is 0-5-1 ATS in its last six non-conference games. I think BC’s run game and defense prove to be too much for the Huskies today, who come into this season with more questions than answers. Play on the Eagles. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-17 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -110 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 40 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). I played Arizona in all three games of its sweep of the LA Dodgers this week, but I think it’ll come out flat in the opener of this weekend set at Coors field. The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (7-7, 3.55 ERA) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the light-hitting Giants on Saturday. Walker has been serviceable since the All Star game, but still has just 12 strikeouts total over his last four starts combined. The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (11-8, 3.81) who gave up four runs while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision against Atlanta on Saturday. Freeland has been scuffling lately as well, but he still does own a highly respectable 6-5, 3.30 ERA record at Coors Field this year. If Arizona has had one major weakness this season, clearly it’s been its play on the road where it’s a sub-par 31-35 (-3.3 units). Colorado has been solid across the board this season, but has been particularly tough at home this year by going 39-27 (+5.8 units) thus far. I think this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Diamondbacks after their sweep of the league-leading Dodgers. Play on Colorado. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-17 | Nationals v. Brewers -138 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Tanner Roark (11-8, 4.63 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Sunday. Roark owns career marks of a 3.34 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. Currently this season his ERA sits at 4.63 and his WHIP at 1.34. He also owns a pedestrian 4.74 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side counters with Jimmy Nelson (10-6, 3.75) who gave up two earned run off four hits over seven innings in a 3-2 victory over the hard-hitting Dodgers on Sunday, also posting six strikeouts. Nelson had been scuffling previous to this gem, but he looks poised to finish out the regular season strong (note that he owns a respectable 3.39 ERA at home thus far.) I think Roark’s inconsistent road issues carry over here and I expect Nelson to build off his latest performance and continue his strong form in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, a very fair price in my opinion. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-17 | Washington -30.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 30-14 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Washington (8:00 EST). When these teams met last year in Washington the Huskies won 48-13. Washington went 11-1 last year, with its lone regular season loss coming against USC. Washington returns more than 85 percent of its offensive yards from a team which averaged 41.8 PPG and 457 YPG last season. QB Jake Browning threw for 3,430 yards with 43 TD’s and just nine INT’s last year. Browning has most of his RB and receiving corps returning, including Myles Gaskin, who ran for 1,373 yards and ten TD’s. The Huskies were also tough on the defensive side of the ball, ranked eighth overall after allowing 17.7 PPG. Note that 27 of 35 lettermen return, including six starters from the defense. The Scarlet Knights were horrible last year, finishing 2-10, including 0-9 in Big 10 action. In games against Ohio State, Michigan, Penn State and Michigan State, Rutgers was outscored 224-0. Last year QB Kyle Bolin led an offense which averaged 15.7 PPG. The defense was almost as bad, ranked 126th in the nation against the run and allowing an average of 37.5 PPG overall. The Scarlet Knights should make significant improvement over their abysmal numbers from a year ago, but the team still has more questions than answers as we head into the 2017/18 campaign. I simply have a hard time seeing Rutgers doing anything offensively against what should be another Top 10 defense for the Hukies. Lay the points with confidence, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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09-01-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -156 | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). Neither starter instills much confidence, but I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very legitimate factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Joe Biagini (3-9, 5.40 ERA) who was annihilated by the Twins on Sunday, giving up five runs off nine hits and three walks over just 3.2 innings of work. It was his first big league start since early June and the 27-year old looked terrible. Over his last five big league starts Biagini has been shelled for 25 runs ((is just 1-3 with a 5.27 ERA on the road as well.) The home side counters with Kevin Gausman (10-9, 4.98) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday, going seven scoreless while striking out five. Gausman has been far from perfect this year, but he’s now thrown six quality efforts in his last eight trips to the hill (has posted a very respectable 2.26 ERA and 52/19 K/W over his last 45.2 innings of work.) Recent form displayed by these starters suggests that this line could in fact be a lot larger. Value swings to the home side, play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | New Mexico State +23.5 v. Arizona State | Top | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 110 h 57 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on New Mexico State (10:30 EST). Both teams are out for redemption after sub-par season’s a year ago. NMSU has won just three games in each of the last two years. But the Aggies have big expectations this season, as they’re now the most experienced team in their conference, with 16 starters back. The NMSU defense was bad, allowing 38.8 PPG last year, but it’s expected to take a major step forward this season. The Aggies offense has improved each year under Doug Martin. QB Tyler Rogers had 2,603 yards, 16 TD’s and 12 INT’s last season and seven of his top eight receivers are all back. The run game is expected to be tops in the Sun Belt as well, led by senior Larry Rose and who will be running behind the fourth best offensive line in the league. ASU finished 5-8 last year. The offense averaged 33.3 PPG and it returns seven starters from last season. Manny Wilkins threw for 2,329 yards, 12 TD’s and nine INT’s. The run game also looks strong with Kalen Ballage and Demario Richard, but the receiving corps is thin. The Sun Devils were also brutal on the defensive side of the ball, allowing 39.8 PPG last season. 20 of 36 lettermen return from last year so the unit is also expected to improve significantly. I’ll point out though that NMSU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against the Pac-12, while ASU has struggled in this position for bettors for years now, going just 1-4 ATS in its last five games played in the month of August. The Aggies won’t be intimidated whatsoever here and clearly the pressure is on the home side. I’m not predicting an outright epic upset, but I do think that the visitors can keep this one a lot closer than whan the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play New Mexico State. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | Seahawks v. Raiders +1.5 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 54 m | Show |
This is a 10* 34-Club Play on the Oakland Raiders (10:00 EST). I base my picks on many different things. I consider myself quite adept at picking which team I feel will be the more “motivated” in a particular matchup and that’s the case with Oakland tonight. No need to overanalyze this selection in my opinion. Seattle is 3-0 SU/ATS in the preseason, while Oakland is 0-3 SU/ATS. The preseason is meaningless, however the Raiders would love nothing more than to get a single victory before heading into the real thing. A win in front of the home town crowd would be big for the team and the fan base. Conversely, Seattle has already accomplished what it set out to do in the preseason. I’m expecting the Hawks to simply go through the motions today as the team looks to avoid any serious injuries to any of the back-ups and wannabe’s. And it’s as simple as that for me on this one. This play is not about who is on the field of play today, or who plays for how long etc, it’s about which of these two clubs is the overall more motivated. Play on Oakland. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe +27 v. Memphis | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 109 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* of my Superstar Triple Play is on UL Monroe (9:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money-line” in this one? Of course not. I simply feel that the high-flying Tigers are going to get caught “looking past” the low-flying Warhawks to their game at UCF the following week. Louisiana Monroe was just 4-8 last year and failed to qualify for a bowl, while Memphis finished 8-5, the Tigers going on to lose 51-31 to WKU in the Boca Raton Bowl. The Warhawks were atrocious on the road last year, especially on the defensive side of the ball. But as mentioned off the top, I think the unit catches a break here with the home side already planning for an early crucial conference tilt the following weekend. UL Monroe returns three QB’s from last year in Garrett Smith, Caleb Evans and Will Collins. The top two RB’s from last year also return in Ben Luckett and Thomas Koufie. The Tigers’ defense can empathize with their opponent today, as it would go on to allow at least 42 points in six games last year. Memphis is once again expected to be a power-house on the offensive side of the ball with Riley Ferguson leading the way, he had 3,698 yards, 32 TD’s and 10 INT’s last season. RB Dorolan Dorceus is also expected to have another big campaign. I’ll point out though that the Warhawks are 4-2 ATS in their last six as a road dog of 21.5 points or more and 5-3 ATS in their last eight non-conference contests, while the Tigers are just 6-7 ATS in their last 13 at home and just 8-9 ATS in their last 17 as a favorite. For all the reasons listed above, play on Louisiana Monroe. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | Ohio State -21 v. Indiana | 49-21 | Win | 100 | 107 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State (8:00 EST). Ohio State was 11-2 SU/ATS last year, while Indiana was 6-7 SU/ATS. Ohio State’s season ended with a disappointing 31-0 loss to Clemson in the Playoff semifinal. The Buckeyes have to be feeling pretty confident as we head into the new season though as they return eight players on offense, including senior QB JT Barrett and RB Mike Weber. When these teams met last year, the Buckeyes rolled to a 38-17 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting an even bigger blowout this time around. Barrett now has a ton of experience under his belt and I think he’ll be a big difference maker tonight. Barrett had 2,555 yards passing, 24 TD’s and seven INT’s, while also running for 845 yards and nine major scores last season. Ohio State averaged 39.4 PPG and ranked sixth nationally on the defensive side of the ball last year by allowing just 300.2 YPG. A strength also lies on the defensive line, with three of four starters returning. Indiana returns nine starters on the defensive side of the ball, a unit which allowed an average of just 380 YPG. The Hoosiers once again turn to QB Richard Lagow this year, he completed 57.8 percent of his passes for 3,362 years, 19 TD’s and 17 INT’s last year. In all the offense would average only 25.8 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Ohio State is 42-20-1 ATS in its last 63 on the road, while Indiana is only 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home. While the Hoosiers did improve dramatically on the defensive side of the ball last year, the offense once again has more questions than answers this season. I think Ohio State’s depth and experience on both sides of the ball proves to be too much for the home side. All signs point to a blowout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | Red Sox +110 v. Yankees | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox. I think the hard-hitting visiting side will sneak away with a victory in the opener of this three-game set. The Red Sox hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (4-4, 4.19 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Orioles on Saturday, allowing five runs over 6.2 innings of work, going on to also strike out seven. Rodriguez has admittedly scuffled since mid July, but he still owns a solid 10.10 K/9 over that stretch. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (10-5, 3.82) who gave up one run off five hits with one walk while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision against the Mariners on Friday. Sabathia is putting together an excellent season and it’s actualy difficult to say too many negative things about the veteran. I will point out however that he does own a poor 5.08 ERA at home so far this year. Also note that the Yanks are just 13-17 (-6.4 units) in their last 30 against teams with winning records, while Boston is 16-12 (+1.5 units) in its last 28 in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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08-31-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks -115 | Top | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40 EST). I’ve taken the Diamondbacks over the first two games of this series and I like the home side to complete the sweep with its bonafide “ace” on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Kenta Maeda (12-5, 3.76 ERA) who gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Brewers on Friday. It was Maeda’s first quality start since August 1st. Maeda has been scuffling of late and is just 4-4 with a pedestrian 4.61 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Zack Greinke (15-6, 3.14) who gave up three runs off seven hits with four strikeouts over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Giants on Friday. Greinke has been trending in the opposite direction of Maeda, having thrown quality efforts in six consecutive home starts dating back to the beginning of the summer. Over that span Greinke has posted a tiny 2.14 ERA and an elite 42/7 K/W. Note that while he’s just 3-5 with a 4.28 ERA on the road, Greinke is 12-1 with a 2.36 ERA at Chase Field. I think it’s worth to note as well that LA is now a money-burning 11-11 (-1.6 units) this year in all road games when the money-line in the contest is set between +125 to -125. Conversely, note that Arizona is 18-9 (+9.1 units) this season in all home games when the money-line is set in the same price range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-17 | A's v. Angels -149 | Top | 8-10 | Win | 100 | 31 h 55 m | Show |
The thrid 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Kendall Graveman (4-4, 4.24 ERA) who gave up one run off nine hits with six strikeouts over seven innings in a victory over Texas on Friday. Graveman has looked much better of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 1-4 with a ballooned 6.39 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Parker Bridwell (7-2, 2.89) who gave up two runs off six hits with five strikeouts over seven innings in an unfortunate loss to Houston on Friday. It was Bridwell’s fourth start this season without issuing a walk and to go along with his sharp 2.89 ERA, he also sports an elite 1.9 BB/9 (owns a tiny 2.34 ERA at home this year as well.) Oakland has struggled in this spot all year for bettors by going just 32-49 (-11.8 units) in all “night” games, while LA is 51-47 (+7.3 units) in all night contests. I think Graveman’s road issues carry over here and I like Bridwell and the home side to take advantage. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +102 | 4-6 | Win | 102 | 30 h 20 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). I had a play on Arizona last night and I think the home side also offers great value in this spot as well. The visitors hand the ball to Hyun-Jin Ryu (5-6, 3.34 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over six innings in a victory over Pittsburgh on Thursday. It’s hard to any anything negative about Ryu as for the most part he’s been solid across the board. I simply feel this is a bad spot for the southpaw. The home side counters with the equally as hot Robbie Ray (10-5, 3.06) who gave up one run off two hits and two walks while striking out nine over five innings in a victory over the Mets on Thursday. Ray missed a month on the DL, but looked great in his first start back and to go along with his tidy 3.06 ERA, Ray also sports an elite 160/60 K/W over 123.2 innings of work this year. Note that Ray is 8-4 with a tiny 2.67 ERA in all “night” games this season as well. I’m giving Ray the slight nod in this matchup because of the home field advantage factor and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the Diamondbacks today in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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08-30-17 | Rays v. Royals -124 | 5-3 | Loss | -124 | 29 h 5 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). Both pitchers have been scuffling over the last month, but I still think that Jason Vargas should be a much bigger fav at home against the struggling Jake Odorizzi. Odorizzi (6-7, 4.82 ERA) gave up three runs off three hits over 3.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Cardinals on Friday. He’s now failed to go four innings in consecutive outings and he hasn’t made it into the fifth frame in four of his last five. Note that over that span he’s 0-3 with a ballooned 6.75 ERA and owns a poor 17/17 K/W (is just 3-6 with a 5.50 ERA in all “night” games as well.) Vargas (14-8, 3.72) gave up four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Friday. Vargas owns a horrible 7.11 ERA through five August starts. The veteran southpaw looks to stop the bleeding in his final outing of the month though and improve upon his respectable 7-4, 3.57 ERA record in front of the home town crowd thus far. Note as well that Tampa is just 15-21 (-4.6 units) against left-handed starters this year, while KC is 49-46 (+7.6 units) against right-handed starters. I think Vargas could easily be favored by a lot more in this one. Value swings to the home side, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-29-17 | Giants v. Padres -113 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Matt Moore (4-12, 5.38 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Wednesday. Moore has looked a bit better of late, but he’s still a disastrous 1-4 with 6.71 ERA on the road this year (and just 2-9 with a 6.55 ERA in all “night” games.) The home side counters with Luis Perdomo (6-8, 4.84) who struck out two and gave up two earned runs over six innings in a no-decision against St. Louis on Thursday. Perdomo has been hit-or-miss this season, but he’s been consistent at home by going 6-5 with a 3.55 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that San Francisco is just 34-51 (-18.2 units) in all “night” games this year, while San Diego is +8.5 units in all night contets. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Padres. Good luck…Larry |
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08-29-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +114 | 6-7 | Win | 114 | 31 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Rich Hill (9-5, 3.32 ERA) who looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after suffering a devastating loss to Pittsburgh on Wednesday, striking out ten while pitching a perfect game through nine innings, before giving up a leadoff home run in the bottom of the tenth. Hill has been solid across the board, I just think this sets up as a natural letdown spot after his last outing. The home side counters with Zack Godley (5-7, 3.15) who gave up three runs (just two earned) with five strikeouts over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Wednesday. Godley has scuffled a bit of late, but he has to be feeling confident that he he can bounce back in this spot as he comes into this one sporting a tidy 3.22 ERA in front of the home town crowd so far this season (also a 2.60 ERA in all “night” games.) I like Godley to outduel his counterpart today and I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done in the opener of this three game set. Play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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08-29-17 | Mariners v. Orioles -142 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez (5-4, 4.52 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in a no-decision to Atlanta on Wednesday. Ramirez has looked decent of late, but I’ll point out, while he’s 4-0 with a 2.66 ERA at home, he’s only 1-4 with a ballooned 5.89 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (12-8, 4.18) who gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out eight over six innings in a no-decision against the A’s on Wednesday. Bundy has given up just eight earned runs over his last 27 innings of work and note that he’s been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year by going 6-4 with a 3.87 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that Seattle is just 9-15 (-2.2 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Baltimore is 14-7 (+3.8 units) as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. All things considered, I feel this is a very fair price. Play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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08-28-17 | Braves v. Phillies -155 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Lucas Sims (2-3, 4.13 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Mariners on Tuesday, going six scoreless in a 4-0 victory. Sims has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though and his 15/8 K/W over 28.1 innings suggests that rockier times are ahead (owns a poor 5.23 ERA on the road as well.) The home side counters with Aaron Nola (9-9, 3.58) who comes in off a dud against the Marlins, giving up seven runs over five innings. Starts like that though have truly been few and far between for Nola this year, note that he’s 8-5 with a 3.87 ERA in all “night” games and 6-4 with a 3.38 ERA at home. I think Sims continues to struggle on the road and I like Nola to bounce back with a concerted effort after his latest sub-par effort. All things considered, a very fair price. Play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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08-28-17 | Indians -106 v. Yankees | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 25 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Indians (7:05 EST). Luis Severino has been impressive for the Yanks this year, but I still think that Corey Kluber is being severely undervalued in this matchup. Kluber (12-4, 2.65 ERA) comes in off a tough loss against Boston on Wednesday, giving up two runs to go along with 12 strikeouts over eight innings. The hard-throwing right-hander has now struck out double-digit opponents in 13 of 22 outings this year while posting quality efforts in 17 of of those. Note as well that Kluber is 4-2 with a 3.51 ERA on the road and is 7-3 with a 2.75 ERA in all “night” games. Severino (11-5, 3.10) gave up one run off six hits over six innings in a victory over Detroit on Wednesday. Severino has a 2.16 ERA since the All Star Break, but I’ll point out that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.14 ERA at home this season. I’ll point out as well that New York is just 12-14 (-3.4 units) in its last 26 against teams with winning records, while Cleveland is 14-9 (+2.2 units) in its last 23 in the same position. I’m banking on Kluber to outlast his counterpart. Play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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08-28-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 25 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Red Sox/Jays. A couple of capable hurlers go head-to-head in this one and in my opinion, all signs point to runs being at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (13-4, 3.18 ERA) who went 5.1 scoreless innings against Cleveland on Wednesday, striking out nine in the victory. Pomeranz has now won seven straight decisions and he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot as he’s 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA on the road and an even better 11-3 with a 3.00 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Marcus Stroman (11-6, 3.17) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rays on Wednesday, allowing five runs off eight hits over five innings of work. Most surprising was that he’d give up three home runs in that game, as he’d only allowed one over his previous 66.2 innings of work. Starts like that though have truly been few and far between for Stroman this year and he’ll now look to improve upon his solid 5-4, 2.63 ERA record at home (is 8-4 with a 2.73 ERA in all night contests as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in 11 of 12 “Monday” games this year, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of 28 against southpaws this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-27-17 | Rockies -101 v. Braves | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (1:35 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (5-3, 4.54 ERA) who comes in off a strong outing against KC on Tuesday, giving up three runs (just two earned) off six hits and a walk over 6.2 innings while striking out six. It was Gray’s fourth qulaity start out of his last five trips to the hill, posting a 3.53 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 41/9 K/W over his last 43.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (10-9, 4.95) who was shelled for six runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out three over 5.2 innings in a loss to Seattle on Monday. Foltynewicz has been scufffling of late, having given up 24 runs through his last 11.2 innings of work. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Foltynewicz has another long afternoon in store for him. Great value, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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08-27-17 | Pirates -110 v. Reds | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (1:10 EST). Neither pitcher instills too much confidence, but I still think that Jameson Taillon should be a much bigger fav in this particular matchup. Taillon (7-5, 4.85 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the hard-hitting Dodgers on Tuesday. Taillon has been hit or miss this year, but that note that he’s consistently been at his best in all “day” games, going 3-1 with a very respectable 3.18 ERA thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (4-6, 7.99) who left his last start early due to shoulder inflammation. Before he left the game Bailey had thrown 3.1 scoreless innings. Like his counterpart today though, Bailey has been hit or miss this year and has consistently been at his worst in this position by going 0-4 with a 12.10 ERA in front of the home town crowd and 1-4 with a 13.29 ERA in all “day” games. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is 23-19 (+7.3 units) in all “day” games this year, while Cincinnati is just 18-27 (-6.2 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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08-27-17 | Twins v. Blue Jays -128 | 7-2 | Loss | -128 | 18 h 49 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST). I like Toronto to build off its 10-9 win on Saturday. The Twins hand the ball to the volatile Kyle Gibson (7-10, 5.76 ERA) who earned a win over the soft-hitting White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run off seven hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out eight. Outings like that though have been few and far between for Gibson, who owns a poor 4.83 ERA on the road and who is just 1-7 with a 6.88 ERA in all “day” games. The home side counters with Joe Biagini (3-8, 5.11) who has posted a 3.18 ERA and 1.12 WHIP over 17 innigns in Triple-A. Biagini has been hit or miss in the big leagues this year, but he’s been at this best in all day contests with a respectable 3.93 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is just 21-28 (-5.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while Torotno is 26-23 (+2.2 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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08-27-17 | Bears +3.5 v. Titans | Top | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). Both teams are 1-1 SU/ATS as we head into Week 3 of the 2017 preseason. Tennessee beat the Jets before then falling to Carolina, while the Bears lost to Denver before then beating the Cardinals The Bears will once again be getting a good long look at rookie QB Mitch Trubisky in this one, so far he’s 18 for 25 for 166 yards, one TD and no INT’s, while also rushing for 38. Tennessee is expected to give Marcus Mariota the entire first half, so far he has just 11 passes through the first two games. Note though that Mariota will be without two of his top pass catchers in Eric Deicker and Corey Davis to injury. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series, while Tennessee is just 7-21-2 ATS in its last 30 in front of the home town crowd. I think Trubisky can take advantage of this Titans defense, which struggled in last week’s loss. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Bears. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-17 | Rice +31 v. Stanford | 7-62 | Loss | -115 | 85 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Rice (10:00 EST). Am I suggesting that you should “sprinkle a little on the money line?” Of course not. I simply feel that this is a few too many points to be giving up as I think Stanford is going to need some time to develop chemistry before its firing on all cylinders. This game is being played in Sydney Australia. The Cardinal finished 10-3 last year and went on to beat North Carolina 25-23 in the Sun Bowl, while the Owls were just 3-9 on the season. When these teams met on November 26th, Stanford came away with the 41-17 victory. Stanford has some work to do to return to prominence in the confernece. Keller Chryst is expected to get the start here (77 of 136 for 905 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s.) However, Ryan Burns is waiting in the wings if needed (106 of 166 for 1,151 yeards, five TD’s and seven INT’s.) Clearly the Cardinal offense is going to need to make adjustments after losing RB Christian McCaffrey to the NFL draft as well. The focus now shifts to Bryce Love, who ran 112 times for 779 yards and three major scores last year. The kicking game is also a concern, as Jet Toner and Collin Riccitelli are still very inexperienced. Rice will once again struggle this season. Sam Glaesmann will make his first College start under center and he’ll be leaning heavily on RB Samuel Steward, who had 76 carries for 479 yards and three TD”s last year. WT Kylen Granson had 33 receptions for 381 yards and two TD’s. The kicking game is a strength of the Owls, with Jack Fox and Hade Tobola (31/31 XP, 7/11 FG, long of 46) both returning. I’ll point out as well that Rice is 5-3 ATS in its last eight non-conference games, while Stanford is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine in the same position. Both teams have a lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball and ultimately I think the bigger adjustment will fall on Stanford. It’s the window of opportunity that Rice bettors are looking for. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Owls. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-17 | Raiders v. Cowboys -3 | Top | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 83 h 47 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:00 EST). These are two teams with big aspirations, but I think the Cowboys will find a way to get the job done in their own stadium. Dallas was 13-3 last year and then fell at home to Green Bay in the playoffs. Oakland was 12-4, but lost starting QB Derek Carr in Week 16 of the regular season, causing the team to predictably get bounced in the first round to the Texans. Carr was 7 of 9 for 100 yards and two TD’s last week, but his team would utlimately fall 24-21. Lee Smith and Michael Crabtree caught the TD passes. Dak Prescott is the man in Dallas now, he’d win 13 of his 14 starts last year and throw 23 TD’s to just four INT’s. Prescott was 7 of 8 for 108 yards and a TD last week, while RB Darren McFadden had 59 yards on nine carries. I think Prescott outduels Carr in this one and I like Dallas to continue its progression on the defensive side of the ball as well. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-17 | Bills +3.5 v. Ravens | 9-13 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 38 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Bills (7:00 EST). I simply feel this one means a lot more to Buffalo as it’s 0-2 to open the preseason. Conversely, the Ravens are 2-0 and look primed for a bit of letdown in my opinion. The Bills fell 17-10 to Minnesota and then 20-16 to Philaelphia, while Baltimore won 23-3 over Washington and then 31-7 over Miami. Buffalo has averaged 385 YPG over the first two games, but managed just 13 PPG average. Tyrod Taylor led an offense which averaged 25 PPG last year and he’d go on to post 3,023 passying yards, 17 TD’s and six INT’s. The Bills have looked solid on the defensive side of the ball, allowing just 18.5 PPG and 285.5 YPG. With the majority of the starters finally all playing together on the offensive side of the ball tonight, I’m expecting to see a much more rounded overall performance from Buffalo in this one. Ryan Mallett will be backing up Joe Flacco in Baltimore this year. But Flacco is out with injury right now, meaning Mallett will once again see the majority of time today (also giving way to rookie Josh Woodrum.) The Ravens have also looked sharp on the defensive side of the ball early, allowing 129 YPG and just 10 PPG over the first two. Clearly these numbers are unsustainable though and I believe the unit will finally get tested today from this focused Bills offense. I think the more determined team will at the very least keep this one close enough to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points, play on the Bills. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-17 | Cardinals v. Falcons -3.5 | 24-14 | Loss | -105 | 82 h 37 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Falcons (7:00 EST). So far Atlanta is 0-2 to open the preseason, but it will play the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal” at home in the new Mercedes-Benz Stadium. Arizona is 1-2 and comes in off a 24-23 loss to Chicago at home last week. Atlanta has jumped out to early leads in each of its first two preseason games and then has taken the foot off the gas once the backups and wannabe’s hit the field. However, NFL MVP QB Matt Ryan will be supported by Tevin Coleman for most of this one and I expect the home side to keep the pedal to the metal from start to finish. This has been a matchup which has favored Atlanta, as the Falcons are 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. I like Ryan to lead his team to an early insurmountable lead in front of the home town crowd in the new stadium, as the place is expected to be absolutely rocking from start to finish. Arizona’s lack of depth on both sides of the ball will prove to be its downfall again this week. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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08-26-17 | Oregon State v. Colorado State -2.5 | Top | 27-58 | Win | 100 | 1590 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF MONTH is on Colorado State. Hopes are high at Colorado State, where the Rams have plenty of talent back from last year’s half-decent (7-6) team and should get a boost from playing their first game in their new stadium. With Alabama and powerful Colorado among the first four opponents, this is almost a must-win situation for CSU. While Oregon State no doubt will try to control the tempo of this one, the Rams hope to make it a shootout behind QB Nick Stevens, who passed for 19 TDs in less than a season in 2016. A strong effort by Stevens in the opener on national TV could result in some Heisman talk and help put CSU on the college football map. Look for Colorado State’s strong defensive front to take a toll on Oregon State’s O-line, which has been re-worked since last season. The Beavers have talent, but most of it is on the offensive side of the ball – not unusual in today’s high-scoring college game. This one has the look and feel of a field-goal game, with CSU having a slight edge at home in its new digs, which has the awkward name Sonny Lubick Field at Colorado State University in a nod to the school’s former longtime coach. Good luck...Larry |
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08-26-17 | Twins v. Blue Jays -137 | Top | 9-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Dillon Gee (1-0, 2.84 ERA) who grabbed a win in just his second start of the season by allowing one run over six innings against the light-hitting White Sox in his last outing. Clearly Gee faces a much stiffer test on the road against the hard-hitting Jays this afternoon though (note that Gee was just 3-5 with a 5.10 ERA on the road last season and only 1-3 with a 5.96 ERA in all “day” games.) Toronto counters with Marco Estrada (5-8, 5.07) who gave up three runs off five hits with one walk while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. Estrada has looked a lot better of late, having posted a quality effort in four of his last five trips to the hill. I think Estrada continues his progression and takes advantage of familiar surroundings and all things considered, I do indeed feel this is great value on the Blue Jays. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-17 | Brewers +170 v. Dodgers | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (10:10 EST). I think that Chase Anderson and the hard-hitting visiting side have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup. Anderson (7-2, 2.83 ERA) gave up one earned run off two hits over five innings in an 8-4 victory over Colorado on Sunday. It was his first start since suffering an oblique injury and he looked great overall. Anderson will now be looking to improve upon his 4-2 (3.60 ERA) road record. The home side counters with Kenta Maeda (11-5, 3.88) who gave up four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Detroit on Sunday. Granted starts like that have been few and far between for Maeda this year, but I’ll point out that the Dodgers are interestingly just 1-3 (-2.7 units) in their last four after scoring five runs or less in their previous game. I think Anderson can match Maeda inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I believe the value absolutely swings to the undervalued underdog. Play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-17 | Chiefs v. Seahawks UNDER 43 | Top | 13-26 | Win | 100 | 59 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Chiefs/Seahawks (8:00 EST). A couple of teams with big aspirations go head-to-head in Week 3 of the preseason on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. Seattle is 1-1 in the preseason so far and KC is 2-0. The Hawks beat Minnesota 20-13 last week and the Chiefs thumped the Bengals 30-12. KC got TD passes from three different QB’s last week and the defense also looked sharp in holding the Bengals to four field goals. The Chiefs are firing on all cylinders right now on both sides of the ball. The Hawks held a 406-320 yards advantage over the Vikings last wek. The offensive line took a hit though with tackle George Fant being lost for the season with an ACL tear. QB Russell Wilson played the entire first half and he was 13 of 18 for 206 yards and a pair of TD’s. Both Alex Smith and Wilson are expected to see the majority of time today as well, but I think what each of these offenses really needs to work on is the run game. For these teams to really be effective in the regular season, each will need its run game to improve dramatically from last year. So with each team putting an emphasis on the run while on offense tonight, all signs do indeed point to the under as the sharp move in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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08-25-17 | Padres v. Marlins -152 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 100 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* NATIONAL LEAGUE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). Travis Wood has been decent of late for the Padres. So too has Adam Conley for the Marlins. Ultimately I don’t trust Wood (especially on the road) and I look for Conley to take advantage of familiar surroundings and continue his recent surge. Wood (3-4, 5.81 ERA) gave up one unearned run off three hits over seven innings in a victory over Washington on Saturday. It was probably Wood’s best start of the year, but note that the hard-hitting Nationals were without sluggers Daniel Murphy and Byrce Harper because of injury. And despite the recent uptick in play, note that Wood is a terrible 1-3 with a ballooned 7.66 ERA on the road this year. Conley (6-5, 4.93) has been much better on the road (4-2, 2.88) than at home this season (2-3, 7.52), but he comes in off a gem against the Mets on Sunday, allowing one run off three hits to go along with 11 strikeouts over seven innings of work. The hard-throwing left-hander has now posted back-to-back wins and note that the Fish themselves have excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 3-1 (+2.3 units) in their last four after scoring nine or more runs in their previous game. I think regression is imminent for Wood and all signs point to Conley continuing his progression. In my opinion, this is the very definition of great line value, play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-17 | Rangers v. Angels -125 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 29 h 26 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). Neither starter instills much confidence, but I think that the home field advantage will play a part in the final outcome. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Martin Perez (8-10, 5.26 ERA) who gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a fortunate victory over the White Sox on Saturday. Note that Perez has been particularly average on the road this year by going just 2-4 with a 4.88 ERA. The home side counters with Troy Scribner (2-0, 3.46) who has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start. Scribner owns a 4.35 ERA and 1.34 WHIP to go along with 103 strikeouts over 103 innings in the minors this year. His peripherals suggest that rockier times could be ahead, but regardles of that he still owns a very respectable 2.70 ERA at home thus far. I’ll point out as well that Texas is just 46-48 (-2.6 units) in all “night” games, while LA is 49-45 (+8 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Angels. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-17 | Nationals v. Astros -134 | 5-4 | Loss | -134 | 28 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST). Clearly this is an even pitching matchup. On any given night either one of these starters could beat the other. However, I think that Dallas Keuchel has a big advantage from throwing at home tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (10-4, 3.24 ERA) who took the loss against San Diego on Saturday despite giving up just two runs over six innings. It was his first start back from a minor elbow injury and the hard-throwing right-hander looked good. It’s hard to say anything negative about Strasburg, so I won’t bother. I simply feel this is a bad spot for him and the Nationals (note that Washington is a poor 9-10, -4.4 units in all interleague games this year.) Keuchel (11-2, 2.58) went seven scoreless against the A’s on Friday, giving up three hits and striking out three for his second straight victory. Keuchel would go on to induce 17 groundouts. Note that he’s been especially tough at home as well by going 5-1 with a minuscule 1.35 ERA (I’ll point out as well that Houston is a superb 12-4, +7.1 units in all interleague games thus far.) For all the reasons listed above, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-17 | Red Sox -160 v. Indians | 6-13 | Loss | -160 | 27 h 31 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). When I released this pick I got it in the mid-juice range. Last night I released a play on Boston at +177 and earned the victory. I love this play and expect the hard-hitting visiting side to build off its first two victories in this series with another big performance tonight. The Red Sox hand the ball to ace Chris Sale (14-5, 2.62 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits with one walk while striking out nine over seven frames in a loss to the Yanks on Saturday. It wasn’t a horrible effort, but clearly wasn’t good enough to get the job done. Performances like that though have been few and far between for Sale, who will now look to bounce back and improve upon his already impressive 8-3, 2.30 ERA road record. The home side counters with the volatile Trevor Bauer (12-8, 4.50) who went 6.1 scoreless innings with seven hits and two walks in a victory over the Royals on Saturday. Bauer has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but I’ll point out that that Tribe are just 23-24 (-11.8 units) against southpaws this year. Conversely the Red Sox are 59-39 (+11 units) against right-handed starters. I think the momentum that the surging Bo-Sox have created is real. I also like Sale to get the better of his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-17 | Dolphins v. Eagles -3.5 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 35 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM on the Philadelphia Eagles (7:00 EST). Both teams come into this one at 1-1 SU/ATS. With Week’s 1 and 2 in the books, Week 3 represents the all important “dress rehearsal.” These teams are evenly matched on paper, but I think that the home field advantage will prove to be the deciding factor once it’s all said and done. Miami struggled in a 31-7 loss to Baltimore last week, while Philadelphia enters off a momentum/confidence building 20-16 victory over the Bills. Miami QB Jay Cutler was three of six for 24 yards. Backup QB Matt Moore had 11 yards on three passes. RB Jay Ajayi had two carries for a loss of two yards. As horrible as the offense looked overall last week, the defense was even worse. Which doesn’t bode well in my opinion in facing a focused Carson Wentz this evening. Matt McGloin saw the majority of snaps last week and looked decent under center for Philly, but Wentz will see most of the action today. The Eagles looked especially quick on the defensive side of the ball and I think the unit will have another big night against this shaky Miami offense that’s still looking for an identity at this point. Miami only put up 120 yards of offense last week and it doesn’t appear as if it will have any easier of a time in this raucous atmosphere. I think Philadelphia’s depth at QB and the home field factor prove to be too much for the floundering Fish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-24-17 | Diamondbacks -144 v. Mets | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (12:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (9-5, 3.11 ERA) who returns to the rotation after taking August off because of concussion protocol. Ray struck out 11 batters through 4.2 innings in his only minor-league re-hab start and to go along with his solid 3.11 ERA he also owns an elite 151/58 K/W through 118.2 innings of work. Note that Ray has been at his best on the road as well by going 5-1 with a 1.47 ERA. The home side counters with Rafael Montero (2-8, 5.47) who comes in off his best start of the year, allowing one run off six hits and three walks while striking out five over six innings against the Marlins on Saturday. Montero has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s been consistently at his worst in front of the home town crowd this season by going just 1-7 with a ballooned 5.89 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 55-43 (+8.6 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is just 12-18 (-6.1 units) against southpaws. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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08-23-17 | Red Sox +174 v. Indians | 6-1 | Win | 174 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I think that Drew Pomeranz and the hard-hitting Red Sox have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one as I look for the visitors to build off their commanding 9-1 victory yesterday. Pomeranz (12-4, 3.31 ERA) left his last start against the Yanks early because of back spasms. He’s been cleared to go tonight though. Before he left he threw 3.1 shutout innings to go along with four strikeouts. Pomeranz had posted three victories and a 2.30 ERA and 1.31 WHIP over his previous five trips to the mound (is 5-2 with a 3.36 ERA on the road.) The home side counters with Corey Kluber (12-3, 2.67) who has also been cleared to play after an ankle issue. Kluber has won all four starts he’s made in August with a 1.78 ERA and 0.66 WHIP. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is just 22-23 (-11.1 units) against southpaws this year and only 8-9 (-10.8 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range, while Boston is 2-1 (+2.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and 57-39 (+7.6 units) against right-handed starters. I like Pomeranz to match Kluber inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the underdog in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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08-23-17 | Brewers v. Giants UNDER 9 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Brewers/Giants (3:45 EST). While neither starter instills too much confidence, I still think this number is a little bit high. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Garza (6-7, 4.81 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against Colorado on Friday, giving up eight runs over 4.1 innings. Garza’s ERA went from a respectable 3.68 to a pedestrian 4.81 after the outing at Coors Field. Garza though has the pedigree and track record to bounce back. The home side counters with Matt Moore (4-12, 5.54) who gave up two runs off two hits and four walks to go along with four strikeouts over 7.1 innings in a win over Philadelphia on Friday. Moore has gone at least seven innings in back-to-back starts and held the opposition to two runs in each outing. I’ll point out as well that Milwaukee has seen the total go under the number in 16 of 24 road games when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5, while San Francisco has seen the total dip below the posted number in 25 of 43 day games. I’m not reading too much into Garza’s performance at hitter friendly Coors Field last time out and I’m expecting Moore to continue his overall progression. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-17 | Rangers v. Angels -130 | Top | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Angels (10:05 EST). I like Angels’ veteran Ricky Nolasco to take advantage of familiar surroundings and get the better of his inconsistent counterpart tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (3-2, 7.02 ERA) who gave up five runs off five hits with six walks and two strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the White Sox on Thursday. Ross owns an ugly 31/31 K/W over 42.1 innings of work (just a 5.92 ERA at home.) Nolasco (6-12, 5.16) comes in off a 3-2 win over Washington Wednesday, giving up two runs while striking ouf five over 5.2 innings of work. Neither starter instills much confidence, but I’ll point out that Texas is just 45-47 (-3 units) in all “night” games this year, while LA is 48-44 (+8.5 units) in all night contests. I believe Ross’ road ineptitude continues here and I like Nolasco to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-17 | Rockies v. Royals -118 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Gray (5-2, 4.74 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a win over Atlanta on Wednesday. Gray has been solid of late, but note that he’s still just 1-2 with a ballooned 6.34 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Danny Duffy (7-8, 3,82) who gave up four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings while striking out eight in a no-decision against Oakland on Wednesday. Duffy has been a bit inconsistent of late, but he has still posted a 24/4 K/W ratio over his last 17 innings of work (note that he owns a 3.14 ERA at home and is 6-4 with a 3.28 ERA in all “night” games as well.) Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is just 1-4 (-3.4 units) in its last five on the road, while KC is 33-29 (+5.2 units) at home this year. I think Gray continues to struggle on the road and I like Duffy to bounce back big in front of the home town crowd. All things considered, this is a great price. Play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-17 | Cubs -154 v. Reds | 13-9 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (10-9, 4.67 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out six over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Reds on Wednesday. Previous to that Lackey had won his past five trips to the hill while posting a 3.42 ERA and 1.33 WHIP and 7.9 K/9 during that span. The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (4-6, 8.44) who gave up six runs off seven hits and five walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs throwing opposite Lackey. Bailey has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned, showing flashes of brilliance at times, but looking downright terrible in others. Note though that he’s definitely been at his worst at home this year, going 0-4 with an atrocious 14.33 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is 19-9 (+7.7 units) this season as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is just 5-11 (-4 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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08-22-17 | Miami Marlins - Game #1 v. Philadelphia Phillies - Game #1 OVER 8.5 | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 22 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over Marlins/Phillies (4:05 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (7-8, 3.80 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision in what turned out to be a 9-4 loss to San Francisco on Tuesday. Straily continues to scuffle as he hasn’t won a decision since the mid-summer classic and he has lasted into the sixth frame just once in his last seven outings (note that he’s been at his worst on the road as well by going 4-5 with a 4.63 ERA.) The home side counters with Aaron Nola (9-8, 3.26) who gave up five earned runs over five innings in a loss to the Giants on Thursday. Nola has been solid this year and starts like that have been few and far between for the Phillies’ ace, but I’ll point out that Philadelphia has still seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four when playing with a day off. Also note that Miami has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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08-21-17 | Giants v. Browns OVER 39 | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* MNF NFLX TOTAL OF THE YEAR is on the over Giants/Browns (8:00 EST). Both teams come in off lower-scoring unders in Week 1, with the Giants falling 20-12 at home to the Steelers and the Browns pulling away for a 20-14 victory over the Saints. Suffice it to say, I look for each to open up the playbook offensively and I expect this one to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. New York knows who will be under center in Week 1, so it brought in Geno Smith to backup Eli Manning. Smith was 10 of 16 for 114 yards last week. The ground game produced 73 yards in Week 1. The Giants had a stellar defense last year (17.8 PPG conceded on average) and the unit will once again be a strength of the team this season. The focus today for the visiting side though will clearly be on the offensive side of the ball. And the home side will also be looking to solidy roles on the offensive side of the ball during the preseason. The Browns chose QB DeShone Kizer as their 2nd round pick and he had a good performance last week by going 11 of 18 for 184 yards and a TD. Brock Osweiller was just 6 of 14 for 42 yards and Cody Kessler was 5 of 10 for 47 yards. Clearly all three QB’s will be looking to build off their Week 1 performances as the competition continues to heat up under center. Cleveland finished in the very bottom in most offensive statistical categories last year and the team tried to address those issues in the offseason, adding 1st round pick TE David Njoku, as well as WR Kenny Britt and James Wright. But the Browns were also horrible defensively last year, ranked 31st in the league in yards allowed. Cleveland drafted Myles Garrett first overall and he along with Jabrill Peppers should be the catalyst to start returning the unit back to respectability. But with both teams putting more of a focus on the offensive side of the ball, I believe the correct call in this matchup is the over. Good luck…Larry |
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08-21-17 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 29 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* NL TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Dodgers/Pirates (7:05 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one. Alex Wood (14-1, 2.30 ERA) gets the call for the White Sox and he most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out six over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the White Sox on Tuesday (zero walks.) Wood was extremely effecient, needing just 79 pitches to get through the seven frames. To go along with his 2.30 ERA, Wood also owns an elite 1.01 WHIP, .206 BAA and 122/30 K/W over 117.1 innings of work. Note that he’s 6-0 with a 1.72 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Gerrit Cole (10-8, 3.96) who gave up four runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision against Milwaukee on Wednesday, walking two and striking out nine. Cole has been solid overall this year though and owns a respectable 3.97 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. I like Wood to continue his strong play and I expect Cole to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. With these two starters battling into the latter frames, all signs do indeed point to the under as the correct call in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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08-20-17 | Saints +3 v. Chargers | Top | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New Orleans Saints (8:00 EST). Both teams are coming off disappointing Week 1 NFLX openers. New Orleans will be eager to atone for a loss to the Browns, while the Chargers were crushed by Seattle in their new home last weekend. Drew Brees didn’t play last week and is expected to see limited to no time today as well. The Saints have three guys battling for the backup position, as Chase Daniel was four of six for 27 yards over the first two series. Garret Grayson then took over and was 11 of 16 for 126 yards and a 92.2 passer rating, the followed by Ryan Nassib, who was 10 of 14 for 110 yards, a TD and a 98.2 passer rating. The Saints also looked decent defensively in picking up four sacks. Philip Rivers connected with Antonio Gates for the Chargers on the opening drive last week, but then everything took a turn for the worse after that for LA. The Bolts looked especially weak on the defensive side in conceding 458 yards of offense, including 325 through the air. I’ll point out as well that the Saints are 9-1 ATS in their last ten on the road, while the Chargers are just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 “home” situations. Rivers isn’t expected to see much time in this one either, which clearly doesn’t bode well for this struggling LA offense. The Saints though have three capable backs which have to be liking their chances tonight against this porous Chargers’ secondary. While I wouldn’t be stunned by the outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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08-20-17 | Nationals -106 v. Padres | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 58 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Nationals (4:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (11-5, 2.49 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Angels on Tuesday, allowing two hits with four strikeouts over six scoreless innings. The crafty southpaw has allowed just three earned runs over his last 28 innings of work and has posted quality outings in nine of his last ten trips to the hill (has been very sharp on the road as well by going 8-3 with a 3.15 ERA.) The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (7-4, 4.78) who gave up two runs off three hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over Philadelphia on Tuesday. Lamet has looked better of late and has been better at home than on the road, but note that he’s still owns a poor 5.56 ERA in all “day” games this year. I’ll point out as well that Washington is 56-37 (+2.8 units) this season against right-handed starters, while San Diego is just 13-19 (-2.5 units) against southpaws. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-20-17 | Brewers v. Rockies -127 | 8-4 | Loss | -127 | 20 h 39 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST). I like Colorado to bounce back here after yesterday’s 6-3 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Chase Anderson (6-2, 2.89 ERA) who gave up five runs over 7.2 innings spanning two rehab starts. Anderson was excellent before his injury, but clearly he draws a first tough matchup at hitter friendly Coors Field. The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (11-7, 3.74) who gave up three runs off four hits over six innings while striking out five in a no-decision to ATL on Tuesday. Freeland has been at his best at home this year (which is clearly surprising), going 6-4 with a highly respectable 3.31 ERA. I’m giving Freeland the big nod in this particular matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the hard-hitting home side in my opinion. All things considered, this is a very fair price, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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08-20-17 | Yankees -107 v. Red Sox | 1-5 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (1:30 EST). I like the visitors to build off their 4-3 upset win yesterday. And it was a big upset, as CC Sabathia outlasted Chris Sale to pull off the huge dog victory. New York has to be feeling pretty confident it can have a repeat performance here by sending the capable Sonny Gray (7-7, 3.37 ERA) to the hill, he most recently gave up two runs off five hits and two walks over six innings in a win over the Mets on Tuesday, also striking out five. Gray has been extremely consistent of late, going six innings and allowing exactly two earned runs in each of his last three starts (note that Gray is 4-0 with a 2.45 ERA in all “day” games this year as well.) The home side counters with the volatile Rick Porcello (7-14, 4.59) who has looked better of late with back-to-back quality outings. Porcello though has been consistently inconsistent all season and he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent at home by going just 5-8 with a ballooked 5.13 ERA. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Porcello has another long afternoon ahead of him against these hungry Yankees. The correct call is on Gray. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins +128 | 0-5 | Win | 128 | 26 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Twins (7:10 EST). Looks like a great spot to pull the trigger on the home dog in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (14-5, 3.01 ERA) who comes in off an interleague win over the Astros on Monday, going 6.2 scoreless in the 2-0 victory. Note that while he’s 11-1 with a 2.34 ERA at home, Greinke is a rather pedestrian 3-4 with a 3.98 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Jose Berrios (10-5, 4.27) who has gotten two extra days off after his most recent start was pushed back due to a rain-out. Berrios has struggled over his last two starts, but should benefit here from a couple extra days rest (note that he’s been at his best at home as well this year by going 6-1 with a 3.30 ERA.) These teams are moving in opposite directions right now, with Arizona at 7-10 (-2.5 units) in August and Minnesota at 11-6 (+5.4 units) this month. I’m banking on the Twins continuing their hot summer surge and for Berrios’ consistent home play to get the better of Greinke’s mediocre road performance. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-17 | Jets v. Lions -5.5 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 33 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Detroit Lions (7:30 EST). Both teams are 1-0 SU and ATS, as Detroit pulled out a 24-10 victory over Indianapolis, while New York beat Tennessee 7-3 at home. The Jets were just 5-11 last year and have a laughable QB battle going on right now between Josh McCown, Bryce Petty and Christian Hackenberg. New York looked pretty good defensively, finishing with eight sacks on the night, but will now obviously be tested on a much greater level against the high-flying Lions. Detroit backup QB Jake Ruddock had two TD passes last week, each to rookie WR Kenny Golladay. Starter Matt Stafford only saw one series, but he is expected to get a few more tonight. I’ll point out that New York is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven on the road, while Detroit is 5-2 ATS in its last seven at home. I have a hard time seeing the Jets mustering much of an offense today. Should be a spanking from start to finish, lay the points with confidence. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-17 | Reds v. Braves -138 | Top | 11-8 | Loss | -138 | 26 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:10 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Robert Stephenson (0-4, 6.64 ERA) who was recently activated from the DL and who threw two scoreless innings in relief against Milwaukee on Sunday. Stephenson hasn’t started since August 2nd and is 0-2 with a 7.33 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Julio Teheran (7-10, 4.98) who comes in off a gem against Colorado on Monday, going seven scoreless with eight strikeouts in the unfortunate no-decision. Teheran has actually been much better on the road than at home this year, but he does have the pedigree and track record to build off his last performance and to finish the campaign strong. I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is just 23-28 (-2.8 units) this season following a victory, while Atlanta is 3-1 (+2.8 units) in its last four following a loss. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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08-19-17 | Cardinals v. Pirates UNDER 9 | 4-6 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the UNDER between the St. Louis Cardinals and the PIttsburgh Pirates (4:05 EST). A couple of capable hurlers go head-to-head in this and one all signs point to a classic “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to Michael Wacha (9-5, 3.85 ERA) who comes in off a loss against the Braves on Sunday, allowing four runs off eight hits over five innings. Wacha’s peripherals are in all line with his career numbers, but his 115 K’s so far have him on pace for a new career high. The home side counters with Chad Kuhl (5-8, 4.64) who gave up five runs off four hits over five innings in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. Kuhl has been hit-or-miss this season, but has been at his best in all “day” games with a 2.88 ERA thus far. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in interestingly in 12 of 17 when playing on a “Saturday” this season, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of 19 in the same position. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-18-17 | Phillies v. Giants -149 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I don’t think that home field advantage can be overlooked as a very legitimate deciding factor in the final outcome in this particular matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin (1-4, 5.76 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out five over 5.1 innings against the Mets on Sunday. Since being re-called from the minors Eflin is 1-1 with a 4.38 ERA (he’s also just 1-2 with a 6.21 ERA in all “night” games this year.) The home side counters with Matt Moore (3-12, 5.71) who comes in off a gem against the Nationals on Sunday, allowing two runs off seven hits and no walks over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortuante no-decision. He’d also strike out nine. It was the fifth time this year that he’d issue no walks and I think the veteran carries that momentum over here. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 4-12 (-7.2 units) in August, while San Francisco is 9-7 (+2.8 units) this month. This line could easily be much larger in my opinion. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-18-17 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Seattle Seahawks (10:00 EST). I use many different techniques to handicap games. For this selection I’m not focusing so much on who will actually be on the field of play tonight, but more on the “situation” that both sides find themselves in coming into this contest. Minnesota opened the NFL preseason with a convincing 17-10 win at Buffalo in Week 1. Now the Vikes have to travel across the country for a late night West Coaster, before then heading home for Week’s 3 and 4. With a victory on the road already and with their eyes already onto their Week 3 matchup at home against the 49ers, tonight’s contest in Seattle sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for the Vikings. The Seahawks absolutely annihilated the Chargers 48-17 in Week 1 and should be even more fired up tonight in the first game in front of the home town crowd. The backups and wannbe’s all looked great for Seattle and we should expect the starters to see even more action this evening. It’s a great situational play as I’m expecting another Seahawk rout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-18-17 | Diamondbacks v. Twins UNDER 9 | 3-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the UNDER Diamondbacks/Twins (8:10 EST). A couple of capbable hurlers collide in this one and in my opinion, runs should be at a premium in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (5-5, 2.95 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits over 5.2 innings while also striking out eight in a 7-2 loss to Chicago on Sunday. Previous to that Godley had posted four straight solid outings, going 2-0 with a 27/8 K/W. To go along with his sharp 2.95 ERA, Godley also sports an elite 1.04 WHIP and strikeout rate of over one per inning (owns a 2.72 ERA on the road as well.) The home side counters with ace Ervin Santana (12-7, 3.28) who gave up four runs (just two earned) while striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against Detroit on Sunday. Santana has now allowed two earned runs in three consecutive starts. I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in 25 of 34 road games this year when the money line in the contest is set between +125 to -125, while Minnesota has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of 14 interleague gaems already this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-18-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox -132 | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). Jordan Montgomery has a tough task ahead of him in Boston tonight. Montgomery (7-6, 3.94 ERA) received a no-decision against the Yanks on Sunday, allowing one run with three walks over 5.1 innings. Montgomery has been exceptional in his rookie campaign, but is still a pedestrian 3-4 with a 4.13 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (12-4, 3.39) who gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out five over 6.2 innings in a victory over New York on Saturday. The crafty southpaw has now won six straight trips to the hill and nine out of his last ten outings overall (note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.43 ERA at home to this point.) These teams are clearly moving in opposite directions right now, with New York having gone just 7-8 (-4 units) in August and Boston going 11-2 (+9.5 units) this month. I’m banking on these trends continuing here. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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08-17-17 | Bucs +1.5 v. Jaguars | Top | 12-8 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8:00 EST). The Bucs will be ready for a much better showing after falling 23-12 to the Bengals on the road last week. Conversely, it would appear as if this could be a classic “letdown” spot for the Jags after their big Week 1 road victory in New England. Jameis Winston was 9 of 13 on the opening drive. He should see a bit more time today. The Bucs will also be leaning heavily on WR Mike Evans this year, last week had four catches for 47 yards. Tampa looked sharp defensively as well, allowing a total of 176 yards. Jacksonville was playing like it was in the Super Bowl in Week 1 and managed a victory on the road against the defending champs. QB Chad Henne had a 97-yard TD pass to Keelan Cole, while third-stringer Brandon Allen also converted for a major score. I’ll point out though that Tampa is 6-1 ATS in its last seven on the road, while Jacksonville is just 2-4 ATS in its last six after scoring 30 points or more on the road in its previous outing. I like the Bucs to find a way to get the better of their contented cross state rivals. Play on Tampa. Good luck…Larry |
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08-17-17 | Cardinals +106 v. Pirates | 11-7 | Win | 106 | 29 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:05 EST). I think that Adam Wainwright and the hard-hitting Cardinals have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Wainwright (12-5, 4.87 ERA) comes in off a win against the Braves on friday, giving up one run over seven innings of work. Wainwright has been better at home than on the road this season, but the veteran has the pedigree and track record to close the campaign strong and I’m expecting him to carry that momentum over here. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (7-5, 4.50) who gave up two runs off six hits over six innings in a victory over the Blue Jays on Friday. Taillon has looked better over his last two starts, which was preceded by a couple of disastrous outings. Despite his recent uptick, note that he’s still just 3-3 with a poor 4.88 ERA at home this season. These two teams are moving in opposite directions, with St. Louis having already gone 9-6 (+2.2 units) in August, while Pittsburgh has gone 7-8 (-2.8 units) this month. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Cardinals. Good luck…Larry |
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08-17-17 | Ravens v. Dolphins -2.5 | 31-7 | Loss | -120 | 33 h 39 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Dolphins (7:00 EST). Baltimore looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after beating Washington 23-2 at home on Thursday. Miami also comes in off a win, getting the better of Atlanta 23-20 at home. With two tough road games to end the preseason, including the all important “dress rehearsal” in Week 3, I’m expecing the Fish to come in focused on the task at hand. Joe Flacco is sitting out the entire preseason for the Ravens, meaning we’ll see a bunch of Ryan Mallet this evening (finished 9 of 18 for 58 yards.) Taquan Mizzell led the way on the ground in that one for Baltimore with 51 yards on 15 carries. The defense looked sharp, but I think it’ll have a much more difficult time on the road. Miami QB Jay Cutler should see time today. QB David Fales was 8 of 17 for 184 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. The Dolphins defense looked sharp, completely shutting out the Falcons in the fourth quarter. I think Baltimore goes through the motions today as it looks to prepare for Week 3, while I expect Miami to take advantage of familar surroundings and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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08-17-17 | Bills +4.5 v. Eagles | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 33 h 39 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Buffalo Bills (7:00 EST). While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Buffalo will be eager to notch its first win of the preseason after falling 17-10 at home to Minnesota last week. Philadelphia is also looking to get off the schneid after falling 24-9 at Green Bay. Buffalo starter Tyrod Taylor should see more time today. There is a battle for backup in Buffalo between Nate Peterman and TJ Yates. The Bills defense looked sharp in the opener allowing 90 yards on the ground to the Vikes and 152 through the air. Eagles’ starting QB Carson Wentz hit all four of his passes before exiting last weekend. Wentz is also expected to see limited time in this one. With Wentz on the bench, the Eagles managed just a FG the rest of the way. Philadelphia backup Matt McGloin was 28 of 42 for 205 yards and an INT. The run game managed just 47 yards in the setback. The Eagles’ defense looked decent, but should be tested much more by this determined Bills’ unit. Buffalo went toe-to-toe with a tough Minnesota team, while the Eagles were in complete disarray without Wentz in the line-up. I think this one comes down to the wire, so grab the points! Good luck…Larry |
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08-17-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros -138 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -138 | 23 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Houston Astros (2:10 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Patrick Corbin (9-11, 4.52 ERA) who actually comes in off his best start of the year, striking out eight over 6.2 scoreless innings against the Cubs on Saturday. Corbrin has 133 strikeouts over his 135.1 innings of work this season, but while he’s a great 7-3 with a 2.87 ERA at home, he’s a horrible 2-8 with an atrocious 6.79 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Mike Fiers (7-7, 4.36) who comes in off one of his worst starts of the year, giving up six earned runs over four innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Note though that while he’s just 2-4 at home, he does own a very respectable 3.68 ERA in Houston (also note that he’s 3-2 with a 3.26 ERA in all “day” games.) I think Corbrin’s road struggles continue and I expect some immediate regression for the southpaw after his latest gem. I also believe that all signs point to Fiers fighting back with a much better effort in this favorable spot. Lay the price, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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08-16-17 | White Sox v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers RUN-LINE (10:10 EST). I feel that the massive talent discrepancy on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Carlos Rodon (1-4, 4.24 ERA) who actually comes into this one off a decent outing against Houston on Thursday, giving up two runs off nine hits over eight innings. Previous to that though the southpaw had posted a 4.66 BB/9 and 11.87 K/9 in 38.2 innings. This was the first time in seven tries that he’d manage to go a full seven innings. Rodon has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-2 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Yu Darvish (8-9, 3.81) who enters off a second straight win for his new club, holding Arizona to two runs off five hits with two walks and ten strikeouts over five innings on Thursday. Darvish now owns a sparkling 20/3 K/W over 12 innings for the Dodgers and I’m expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to continue to excel with another strong effort on Wednesday night. I’ll point out as well that Chicago is just 30-50 (-6.7 units) against right-handed starters this year, while LA is 28-11 (+10 units) against southpaws. For all the reasons listed above, play on LA on the run-line. Good luck…Larry |
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08-16-17 | Diamondbacks v. Astros -146 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 28 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Astros (8:10 EST). I like Houston to build off its decisive 9-4 victory in Arizona last night and continue the interleague domination in front of the home town crowd. The visitors hand the ball to Taijuan Walker (6-6, 3.76 ERA) who was crushed for five runs off five hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Walker is now winless in his last eight trips to the hill and he’s served up eight home runs over his last six starts. The Astros counter with Charlie Morton (9-5, 3.83) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs (three earned) while striking out six over 5.2 innings in a loss to the Rangers on Friday. Morton hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s consistently been at his best at home by going 6-2 with a 3.65 ERA. Recent form suggests that Morton is going to be able to bounce back at home, while I expect Walker’s struggles to carry over. All things considered, a very fair price on the hard-hititng home side in my opinion. Play on Houston. Good luck…Larry |
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08-16-17 | Cardinals v. Red Sox -137 | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 28 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I like Boston to build off its decisive 10-4 victory over St. Louis last night. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (10-6, 3.12 ERA) who gave up three runs off six hits with five walks over six innings in a no-decision against the Royals on Thursday. Lynn has been better than expected for the Cards this year, but his peripherals (.226 BABIP and 4.83 FIP) point to imminent regression. The Red Sox counter with Eduardo Rodriguez (4-3, 3.80) who comes in off a gem against the Yanks on Friday, allowing no runs off two scattered hits to go along with seven strikeouts over six innings. Rodriguez is picking up steam again having now posted back-to-back quality outings (note that he’s 1-0 with a 3.31 ERA at home.) Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four after allowing ten runs or more, while Boston is 4-2 (+1.7 units) in its last six after scoring ten runs or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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08-15-17 | Braves v. Rockies -141 | 4-3 | Loss | -141 | 30 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Newcomb (1-7, 4.45 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Phillies on Wednesday. Newcomb has just two quality starts out of his last seven trips to the hill and he is just 1-5 with a pedestrian 4.68 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (11-7, 3.70) who returns after a short stint on the ten-day DL following a minor groin pull. Freeland has been much more consistent than his counterpart overall this year and he’s been at his best at Coors Field by going 6-4 with a 3.19 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Atlanta is just 26-36 (-3 units) this year following a loss, while Colorado is 36-29 (+7.1 units) following a victory. Recent form displayed by these starting pitchers suggests that Newcomb has another long night in store for him. Play on Colorado. Good luck…Larry |
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08-15-17 | Reds +160 v. Cubs | 2-1 | Win | 160 | 29 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Reds (8:05 EST). I think that Luis Castillo and the Reds have much more than just a “punchers” chance in this one. The Cubs won decisively yesterday, setting up a classic “letdown” spot on Tuesday in my opinion. Castillo (2-5, 3.73 ERA) gave up three runs off six hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against San Diego on Thursday. Castillo has now posted four quality starts out of his last six trips to the hll and he’s now averaging almost a strikeout per inning (note that he owns a highly respectable 2.97 ERA on the road this year.) The home side counters with Kyle Hendricks (4-4, 3.70) who gave up one run off five hits and three walks over 4.2 innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Wednesday. Hendricks has been good at times this year, not great, and owns a rather pedestrian 2-2, 3.92 ERA at home thus far. I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati is already 11-7 (+6.2 units) this season after allowing ten runs or more, while Chicago is just 30-31 (-15.1 units) following a victory. The value is simply too good to turn down here, play on the Reds. Good luck…Larry |
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08-15-17 | Giants -127 v. Marlins | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:10 EST). I think San Francisco bounces back here after falling 8-3 yesterday (I had a play on Miami in that one.) The visitors hand the ball to ace Madison Bumgarner (2-5, 2.71 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and a walk over seven innings while striking out seven in a 3-1 win over the Cubs on Wednesday. The big left-hander has now posted three straight quality outings (posting seven K’s in each) and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 3.21 ERA road record. The home side counters with Dan Straily (7-8, 3.74) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk while striking out just one over 5.2 innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Thursday. Straily has been very consistent overall this year, but I’ll point out that Miami is just 3-8 (-5.1 units) already this season after three or more consecutive victories. I like Bumgarner to outduel Straily and as I stated off the top, I look for the Giants to bounce back off yesterday’s defeat. Good luck…Larry |
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08-15-17 | Astros v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under Astros/Diamondbacks (3:40 EST). I like these two starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result I look for this total to fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Brad Peacock (10-1, 3.07 ERA) who most recently gave up one run to go along with five strikeouts over 6.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the White Sox on Thursday. Peacock hasn’t been perfect this year, with a few duds thrown in among the mix, but there’s no denying that he’s been at his absolute best on the road by going a sparkling 6-0 with a tiny 2.64 ERA. The home side counters with Anthony Banda (1-2, 4.60) who has looked solid over three big league starts, most recently allowing three runs to go along with four strikeouts over four innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Thursday. So far the rookie left-hander has posted 16 K’s over his 15.2 innings of work. I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go under the number in four of its last seven against teams with winning records, while Arizona has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of its last 15 against clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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08-14-17 | Astros v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Collin McHugh (0-1, 5.32 ERA) who gave up seven runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the soft-hitting White Sox on Wednesday. McHugh has consistently been at his worst on the road with a big 6.75 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Zack Greinke (13-5, 3.14) who gave up three runs off four hits over 6.2 innings in an unfortunate loss to the hard-hitting Dodgers on Wednesday. Greinke hasn’t been completely perfect this year, but he’s been very consistent overall. And note, he’s consistently been at his most consistent at home this season by going 10-1 with a 2.52 ERA to this point. I like Greinke to continue his home dominance and I expect McHugh to once again struggle on the road. All things considered, I believe this is a very fair price. Play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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08-14-17 | Giants v. Marlins -130 | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 27 h 25 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). I think Adam Conley has the home field advantage factor working in his favor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Ty Blach (8-7, 4.15 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings in a 6-3 win over the Cubs on Tuesday. Blach has been decent of late, posting a 2.98 ERA over his last seven starts, but his paltry 5.2 K/9 leaves something to be desired. And note, despite the recent surge Blach has consistently been at his worst on the road by going just 3-3 with a poor 5.06 ERA thus far. Conley (4-5, 5.43) comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs off 11 hits in a 10-1 loss to the hard-hitting Nationals on Wednesday. Conley has stunk over his last two starts, which comes after posting three straight quality outings after the all-star break. Conley’s team will look to get him back into the winners circle tonigh, as note this is a spot in which Miami has excelled in for bettors of late, going 14-8 (+7.8 units) in its last 22 against teams with losing records. Conversely, note that San Francisco is just 7-13 (-8.4 units) in its last 20 against clubs with losing records. I like Conley to bounce back here and match Blach inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value falls onto the home side. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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08-14-17 | Rays -125 v. Blue Jays | 1-2 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:05 EST). Ultimately I feel this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi (6-5, 4.38 ERA) who has been activated after a foot contusion hampered his progress over the last week. Odorrizi has been better on the road (3-1, 4.21) than at home this year (3-4, 4.48) The home side counters with Nick Tepesch (0-2, 9.00) who has been recalled from the minors to make this start. Earlier in the season Tepesch made one spot start for Minnesota and he’d go on to give up seven runs before then being immediately traded to Toronto. I’ll point out as well that Tampa Bay is 44-38 (+3.2 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Toronto is a money-burning 44-44 (-5.8 units) against right-handed starters. Odorizzi has been far from perfect this season, but he still gets a big nod over Tepesch in this matchup. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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08-13-17 | Seahawks v. Chargers UNDER 38 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Hawks/Chargers. Starters will be seeing limited to no time whatsoever in this one, a factor which I believe will help in contributing to a lower-scoring affair once the smoke clears at the end of the night. Last year Seattle was 3-1 in the preseason, while the Chargers were 1-3. The Seahawks will be working on filling holes on the offensive line and at the RB position on offense. Defensively the team finished in the top five in most statistical categories last year and the unit will once again be a strength this season (the offense averaged 22.1 points and the defense conceded 18.2.) The Chargers are in a temporary stadium in LA until their new home is built. QB Philip Rivers is expected to see limited to no time at all in this one. San Diego averaged 25.6 PPG last year, but will clearly be looking to improve on the defensive side after conceding 26.4, ranked 29th overall. The Chargers will also be looking to establish the run while on offense this preseason, so as to alleviate some of the pressure off Rivers this year and open up the play-action for the veteran gun-slinger. This one has the feeling of a “chess match” over a “track meet” and I think field position will prove to be critical in the final outcome. In my opinion, all signs point to the UNDER as the correct call here. Good luck…Larry |
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08-13-17 | Royals -134 v. White Sox | 14-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Kansas City Royals (2:10 EST). Ultimately I believe this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jason Vargas (13-6, 3.40 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against St. Louis on Tuesday, allowing six runs off eight hits over 4.2 innings. Vargas now looks to get back on track and improve upon his still impressive 6-3, 3.53 ERA record on the road. The home side counters with Derek Holland (6-11, 5.25) who gave up three runs off five hits over 5.2 innings in a win over the Astros on Tuesday. Holland though has still been unable to post a quality start in six of his past seven trips to the hill and note that he’s been particularly average in this spot all season by going just 3-6 with a pedestrian 4.35 ERA at home. I like Vargas to outduel his volatile counterpart, so lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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08-13-17 | Twins -124 v. Tigers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 21 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Twins (1:10 EST). In my opinion this is the very definition of “great line value.” The visitors hand the ball to ace Ervin Santana (12-7, 3.27 ERA) who most recently gave up four runs (just two earned) off six hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Monday. To go along with his solid 3.27 ERA, Santana also sports a sharp 1.11 WHIP and 7.1 K/9. And note that Santana has been at his absolute best on the road this year by going 8-2 with a tiny 2.52 ERA. The home side counters with Matt Boyd (5-6, 5.64 ERA) who gave up six runs off nine hits over four innings in a loss to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Boyd has completely fallen apart of late, having now allowed nine runs over his last 8.1 innings of work spanning two starts (note that Boyd has been terrible at home this year as well with a ballooned 5.05 ERA thus far.) Additionally I’ll point out that Minnesota is 31-23 (+15.3 units) on the road this year, while Detroit is just 27-28 (-4.6 units) at home. I like Santana to easily outduel his volatile counterpart, which in my opinion drastically tips the scales in favor of the visitors this afternoon. Play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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