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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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01-12-18 | Jets v. Blackhawks -110 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 31 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Blackhawks (8:30 EST). Winnipeg looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after its 7-4 road win over Buffalo, while it’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Hawks after their 2-1 home loss to Minnesota. The Jets average 3.4 GPG, while conceding 2.73. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is 24-10 with a 2.36 GAA on the year, including 7-8 with a 2.59 GAA on the road. But as mentioned above, after three straight wins and victories in six of their last seven, I think the visitors are going to have bit of a mental lapse this evening. The Hawks average 3.12 GPG and concede 2.72. Netminder Anton Forsberg is 1-3 with a 1.60 GAA at home this season. I’ll point out as well that Winnipeg has in fact struggled in this spot, despite the win against the Sabres it’s still only 3-9 in its last 12 on the road (also just 1-8 in its last nine road games against a team with a winning home record), while Chicago is 100-45 in its last 145 home games against a team with a losing road record. I think the hungry Hawks find a way to get the job done at the end of the night and all things considered, I believe this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-18 | Knicks +9 v. Wolves | Top | 108-118 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 52 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Knicks (8:00 EST). The Knicks are fighting right now, most recently falling 122-119 in doubly OT to the Bulls on Wednesday. It was their fourth loss in a row and clearly they’ll be eager to stop the slide. Conversely, this sets up as a classic letdown spot for the home side in my opinion after winning three straight, most recently a very satisfying 104-88 victory at home over OKC. New York averages 103.6 PPG and it concedes 104.3. Big man Kristaps Porzingis averages 23.7 points, 6.7 boards and 2.26 blocks per game, while Enes Kanter adds 13.4 points and 10.2 boards per contest. Minnesota averages 108.3 PPG and it concedes 104.7. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.2 points and 11.9 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins chips in 17.8 points plus 4.1 boards per contest. I’ll point out though that New York has excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest (it’s also 12-8 ATS in its last 20 off an upset loss as a favorite), while Minnesota has struggled in this position by going just 3-11 ATS in non-conference contests this season and only 9-12 ATS in front of the home town crowd. I’m not predicting an outright upset, but the stage is set for a much more competitive battle than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points, play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-18 | Cavs v. Pacers +4 | 95-97 | Win | 100 | 30 h 53 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). The Cavaliers are in a tail-spin right now, coming in having gone 4-7 in their last 11 after last night’s brutal setback in Toronto. Cleveland has now lost back-to-back games by more than 20 points. This is the finale of a five game trip for the Cavs and suffice it to say, I’m expecting another letdown here. Indiana had won two straight before falling 114-106 to Miami on Wednesday. The Cavs enter averaging 110.2 PPG, while conceding 108.2. LeBron James averages 27.2 points, 8.2 boards and nine assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.4 points plus 9.6 boards per contest. The Pacers average 107.3 PPG and concede 106.8. Victor Oladipo is back from injury and he averages 24.6 points, 5.3 boards, 1.94 steals and 2.24 blocks per game, while Myles Turner adds 13.9 points plus 6.5 boards. I’ll point out that Cleveland is now 0-5 ATS in its last five road games against teams with winning home records, while Indiana is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 112 points or more in its previous contest. This is a big game for the Pacers, who will look to close a five game home stand with a win before hitting the road. The Cavs on the other hand can’t help themselves looking ahead to their next home stand after this dismal road trip. Play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-18 | Magic v. Wizards -10.5 | 119-125 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 52 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (7:05 EST). The 12-30 Orlando Magic are in Washington to take on the 23-18 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Orlando comes in having lost six straight, while the Wizards will be eager to get back on track after falling to an undermanned Utah team at home in their latest action. But if recent history is any precedence, then Washington has to be liking its chances for a big time bounce back, because when these teams first met this year, it was the Wiz that pulled away for the convincing 130–103 victory. Orlando is struggling without Nikol Vucevic in the line-up, who is out until late February with a hand injury. The Magic average 104.9 PPG, while conceding 110.8. Aaron Gordon leads the nightly charge with 18.9 points, plus 7.9 boards per game. The Wizards average 106.4 PPG and concede 104.1. After winning four straight, Washington has now lost two straight. John Wall had 35 points and 11 assists in the loss to the Jazz. I’ll point out though that the Magic are just 1-5 ATS in their last six road games and only 13-37-2 ATS in their last 52 following an ATS win, while the Wiz are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 12 when playing at home in this particular series. The Wizards get untracked with a big effort against an Orlando team that seems destined to grab one of next year’s top draft picks. Lay the points, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-18 | VCU +1.5 v. Dayton | 79-106 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Virginia Commonwealth (7:00 EST). The 11-6 VCU Rams are at the 8-8 Dayton Flyers on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, i think this one favors the visitors. VCU enters off a 78-67 home win over Duquesne in its latest action, while Dayton posted an 87-80 road win over Richmond on Tuesday. Note that these teams split a pair of games last year. The Rams have won six of their last seven games and are currently averaging 78.1 PPG, while conceding 73.8. Issac Vann had 15 points in his team’s latest victory. The Flyers scored their first road win of the year last time out and in my opinion, all signs point to a predictable letdown here. The Flyers average 71.6 PPG and concede 70.7. Josh Cunningham had 20 points, going 8 from 8 from the floor in the win over the Spiders on Tuesday. I’ll point out though that VCU is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series, while Dayton is a poor 1-6 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory and 0-8 ATS in its last eight following a straight-up win. The Rams are the deeper offensive team and I believe this fact will ultimately prove to be the difference in the end. Play on VCU. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-18 | Nebraska v. Penn State -7 | 74-76 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Penn State (7:00 EST). Nebraska lost to Purdue, but then bounced back to beat Wisconsin 63-59 on Tuesday. the Cornhuskers enter averaging 106.4 PPG per 100 possessions, despite shooting only 46.5 percent from inside the arc. James Palmer leads the team in scoring with 15.8 PPG. The Huskers are allowing opponents to post 97.9 points per 100 possessions, which ranks the team 43rd in the country. Penn State comes in off a 74-70 loss at Indiana. Penn State limits its opposition to just 93.3 points per 100 possessions, which ranks it 16th in the NCAA. The Nittany Lions are led by Tony Carr, who averages 18.9 points, 4.6 boards and 4.8 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Nebraska has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 1-3 ATS in its last four after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less, while Penn State has excelled in this position by going 4-0-1 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss. Of Penn State’s five losses this year, two have come by a single point. The Nittany Lions possess one of the Nation’s best defenses and I expect it to be the difference maker in this one. Lay the points, play on Penn State. Good luck…Larry |
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01-12-18 | St. Peter's v. Canisius -4.5 | Top | 58-70 | Win | 100 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Canisius (7:00 EST). The 8-7 Saint Peter’s Peacocks are on the road to take on the 9-8 Canisius Golden Griffins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. St. Peter’s most recently comes in off an 84-58 win over Quinnipiac. Nick Griffin led the way in that one with 22 points and three boards. Canisius looks to get back on track here. The Golden Griffins opened conference play with three straight wins, but they enter off a 65-62 loss to Siena as 4.5 point road favs. Takal Molson was a bright spot with 21 points and four boards. From a trend based stand point though, there’s no question that this one favors the home side in my opinion, as note that St. Peter’s is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after scoring 82 points or more in its previous outing, while Canisius is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 62 points or less in its last outing. I don’t think that home floor can be overlooked as a very real advantage in this matchup. For all the reasons listed above, play on Canisius. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-18 | California v. Washington -9 | 56-66 | Win | 100 | 29 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* BLOWOUT is on Washington (11:00 EST). The Bears are 7-9 overall and 1-2 in Pac 12 play. Washington is 12-4 overall and 2-1 in league play. Cal comes in off a win over Stanford in a tight battle, before then coming back down to Earth with back to back home losses to USC and UCLA (losing by 18 and 23 respectively.) The Bears defense looked horrible in the loss to UCLA, giving up over 50 points in both halves, allowing the Bruins to hit 58 percent overall and 17 of 30 from range. The Huskies opened the 2017/18 campaign with an 88-81 win over USC and most recently they beat Washington State 70-65, led by 17 points and five steals from Matisse Thybulle. I’ll point out that Cal is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with a winning straight-up record, while Washington is 2-0 ATS in its last two after playing three consecutive road games. The Bears have been playing a bit better of late, but the Huskies have matchup advantages across the board. Throw in the home floor advantage and take into account the above listed trends and the correct call in this matchup is on the home side. Lay the points, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-18 | Oregon +8.5 v. Arizona State | 76-72 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Oregon (10:00 EST). Oregon has lost two of its last three, most recently a 74-64 setback on the road at Oregon State last Friday. Arizona State broke a two game skid with a tight 80-77 win over Utah in its latest action on the road Sunday. These two teams always play to competitive affairs, however that wasn’t the case in the Pac-12 Tournament last year after the Ducks hammered the Sun Devils 80-57. Oregon averages 81.6 PPG and it concedes 70.5. The Ducks just couldn’t get anything going against the Beavers, shooting a combined 36.2 percent from the floor, led by 16 points from Paul White off the bench. Arizona State averages 89.3 points per game and it concedes 74.1. The Sun Devils shot 44.8 percent from the floor in the win over the Utes, led by 22 points from Shannon Evans II. I’ll point out though that Oregon is 6-1 ATS in its last seven when playing with five or six days rest, while Arizona State is just 3-10 ATS in its last 13 off a win against a conference rival. The Sun Devils play with revenge, but the Ducks won’t be going down without a fight. Oregon has the fire-power and defensive group to keep this one close until the final moments and that’s exactly what I expect to see happen. And while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Ducks. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-18 | Clemson -4 v. NC State | Top | 77-78 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Clemson (9:00 EST). The 14-1 Clemson Tigers are in North Carolina State to take on the 11-5 Wolfpack and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Clemson enters off a 74-69 home win over Louisville, while NC State looks poised for a classic letdown after stunning Duke 96-85 in its latest action. If recent history is any precedence, then the Tigers have to be loving their chances tonight as well, because they’ve dominated this series of late, taking both meetings quite easily last year. Clemson has won ten straight and I don’t foresee a letdown tonight. The Tigers average 77.9 PPG and concede 63.5. Marcquise Reed had 24 points in his team’s win over the Cardinals. NC State averages 83.4 points and it concedes 72.6. In the upset victory over Duke, Torin Dorn scored 16 points, while Allerik Freeman posted 15 points, five boards and five assists. I’ll point out though that is a spot in which the Tigers have excelled in for bettors over the years, as note that they’re 24-19 ATS the last two seasons when playing the role of favorite (including 6-4 ATS this year), while NC State is just 14-21 ATS the last two seasons as an underdog (including just 3-4 ATS this year.) The Wolfpack are also 0-7 ATS in their last seven following an ATS victory and just 1-8 ATS in their last nine following a straight up victory. It’s a classic letdown spot for NC State after its big win over Duke. Combined with the above trends which all clearly point to the team suffering a letdown in this exact position, everything does indeed point to a blowout victory for Clemson. Lay the points, play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-18 | Cavs v. Raptors +1 | Top | 99-133 | Win | 100 | 10 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Raptors (8:05 EST). Cleveland has lost five of its last seven, most recently a 127-99 setback on the road in Minnesota on Monday. The Raptors come in off only their second home loss of the season in a 90-89 setback to Miami on Tuesday, as they got caught “looking ahead” to this one against the Cavs. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as the Cavs have knocked out the Raptors from the playoffs the last two years straight and took three of four regular season meetings last year. Cleveland averages 110.5 PPG and it concedes 107.7. LeBron James averages 27.6 points, 8.2 boards and 9.2 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.8 points and 9.8 boards per contest. Toronto averages 111.5 PPG and it concedes just 103.8. DeMar DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 25.3 points and five assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Cavs are 0-5 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a winning home record, while Toronto is amazingly 6-0 ATS in its last six when playing on one or less day rest. As much as the Cavs would like to “get up” for this one, the situation just does not favor them at all here. Toronto has been the cream of the crop in the Eastern Conference over the last month (minus its last game against a red hot Miami team) and I believe it finds a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Raptors. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-18 | Iowa +5.5 v. Illinois | 104-97 | Win | 100 | 26 h 6 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa (8:00 EST). Iowa is 9-9 on the season and 0-5 in league play. Clearly we don’t have to question the Hawkeyes motivation levels tonight. Note that this play narrowly missed out on a top 10* rating. Illinois is 10-7 overall and 0-4 in league action. There are two desperate teams and I’m expecting a competitive “nail-biter,” a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. Iowa averages 80.7 PPG and concedes 75, while the Illini average 78.9 PPG and concede 70.8. The Hawkeyes are led by Tyler Cook, who is averaging 14.7 points and 6.3 boards per game. Iowa has struggled in conference action, but it catches a break here facing Illinois. Kipper Nichols scored 17 points off the bench in Illinois’ latest loss to Michigan, but not a single starter scored in double digits. I’ll point out that Iowa is 4-3 ATS this year already against good offensive teams which score 77 plus points per contest, while Illinois is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a home favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. As stated off the top, this is going to be a battle until the end. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-11-18 | NC-Wilmington +10.5 v. Elon | 80-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Oddsmaker’s Error on NC Wilmington (7:00 EST). The 4-12 UNC Wilmington Seahawks get ready to battle the 11-6 Elon Phoenix on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Seahawks come in off a 96-76 road loss to Delaware, while the Phoenix are off an 89-76 road victory over Hofstra. These teams split a pair of games last year, with UNC Wilmington taking the first game 79-63 and Elon winning the second 77-76. At 1-3 in conference action, we don’t have to question the Seahawks’ motivation levels tonight. Keep your eyes on Devontae Cacok, who had 18 points and 11 boards in his team’s latest setback. Note that so far UNC Wilmington averages 80.3 PPG and concedes 85.9. At 3-1 in league play, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side in some small way coming in a bit complacent tonight. Elon averages just 74.5 PPG and it concedes 72.8. Tyler Seibring scored 22 points in the Phoenix’s latest victory. I’ll point out though that the Seahawks are 2-1 ATS in their last three off a loss against a conference rival, while the Phoenix are just 1-2 ATS this year already after scoring 80 points or more in their previous outing. I’m not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the more desperate team can keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points, play on the Seahawks. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-18 | Minnesota +3 v. Northwestern | Top | 60-83 | Loss | -102 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Minnesota (9:00 EST). Minnesota will be eager to get back into the winners circle here after an upset 75-71 home loss to Indiana to fall to 2-2 in conference action. Northwestern also enters off a loss, most recently a 78-63 beatdown at the hands of Penn State. The Golden Gophers average 82.6 PPG and concede just 70.6. Their latest loss snapped a five game win streak. Nate Mason was a standout with 22 points and nine assists. The Wildcats average 74.4 PPG and concede 67.6. In their latest loss to the Nittany Lions they’d shoot just 37.1 percent from the floor overall, while allowing Penn State to hit 54.5 percent. Bryant McIntosh had 18 points in the loss. I’ll point out that Minnesota is already 7-5 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while Northwestern is just 3-4 ATS at home and only 3-4 ATS against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest. I like Minnesota to get right back on track here and I believe it’s underrated defense proves to be the difference. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-18 | Pistons -2 v. Nets | Top | 114-80 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Pistons (7:30 EST). The Pistons will be hungry here as they lost for the third time in their last four tries in a tight 112-109 setback at New Orleans on Monday. The Nets enter off back-to-back losses, falling 114-113 in OT to Toronto on Monday. Detroit averages 101.9 PPG and it concedes 101.9 as well. Tobias Harris leads the nightly charge with 18.4 points plus 5.3 boards per game, while Avery Bradley adds 15.4 points. Brooklyn averages 106.6 PPG and it concedes 108.8. The Nets are led by Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, who averages 14.6 PPG. I’ll point out though that Detroit has performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous outing, while New Jersey has struggled in this position by going just 1-4 ATS in its last five home games against a team with a losing road record. Detroit remains in the playoff hunt and to remain in the thick of it, it needs to win the games that it’s “supposed” too. Detroit is deeper and I think it’s superior defensive play proves to be too much for the Nets to handle down the stretch. Lay the points, play on the Pistons. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-18 | Heat +4.5 v. Pacers | 114-106 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Miami Heat (7:00 EST). Miami comes in off a hard-fought 90-89 win at Toronto last night and I believe the team carries that momentum over here. Indiana has won two straight, most recently a 109-96 effort at home over Milwaukee. Note that these teams have already split a pair of games this year. The Heat are now 8-3 in their last 11 and have won five straight. Miami is surging, now in fifth in the East with an 11-8 road record and a 14-8 mark against the Eastern Conference overall. Miami averages 100.9 PPG and it concedes 102.2. Hassan Whiteside is once again putting together a solid campaign with 14 points and 11.5 boards per game. Guard Goran Dragic adds 16.7 points, 4.1 boards and 4.8 assists per game, while Dion Watiers chips in 14.3 points. The Pacers average 107.3 PPG and concede 106.6. Victor Oladipo leads the team with 24.5 points, 5.2 boards and 1.91 steals per game. Miami is now 11-8 ATS on the road this year and 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing 90 points or less in its previous contest, while Indiana is just 4-7 ATS already this season following a win by ten points or more. I’m expecting another nail-biter for the Heat in this one and will therefore be recommending to grab the points. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-18 | Mavs +6.5 v. Hornets | 115-111 | Win | 100 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Mavericks (7:00 EST). Dallas smoked Orlando at home 114-99 last night and I believe the team will carry that momentum over here. Conversely, this sets up as a classic “letdown” spot for Charlotte, which returns for its first home game after a very satisfying 3-1 Western road swing, including knocking off the Lakers 108-94 last Friday. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Mavs after the Hornets took both meetings last season. Dallas averages 102 PPG and it concedes 104.4. Harrison Barnes leads the nightly charge with 18.7 points, plus 6.6 boards per game, while Dennis Smith Jr. adds 13.8 points and 4.5 assists. Charlotte averages 105 PPG and it concedes 106. Kemba Walker leads the team with 21.3 points and 5.8 assists per game, while big man Dwight Howard adds 15.7 points, plus 12.1 boards per contest. I’ll point out though Dallas is 10-9 ATS on the road already this year and 17-12 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Charlotte is already 0-3 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest and just 3-5 ATS after a victory by ten points or more. While I’m not going to call for the outright upset (I wouldn’t be shocked by it of course!), I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect this one to be a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-18 | Duke -16.5 v. Pittsburgh | 87-52 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Duke (7:00 EST). The 13-2 Blue Devils get ready to battle the 8-8 Pittsburgh Panthers on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Duke. The Blue Devils will be especially motivated here to get back into the winners circle with a resounding effort after getting upset at NC State this past weekend: “We played crappy defense,” Blue Devils’ coach Mike Krzyzewski assessed afterwards. “We were a little frantic; they played their butts off. We’ve got to get better. To me, it’s that simple. Now the process of getting there; that’s what we’ve got to figure out.… The continuity of what you have to bring every day just isn’t there yet. We have to come to work every day.” Marvin Bagley II had 31 points and ten boards in the setback. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against though as the Panthers enter having dropped three straight, most recently to Miami, Louisville and Virginia Tech. Jared Wilson-Frame was a standout for Pittsburgh in the loss to the Hokies, finishing with 20 points. The Panthers were actually decent in the setback, shooting a season-high 46.2 percent from the floor, while also going 12 of 26 from range. I’ll point out though that Duke is 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten road games and 7-2-1 ATS in its last ten road games against teams with winning home records, while Pittsburgh is just 13-39-1 ATS in its last 53 following an ATS victory. The numbers and the overall situation are stacked against the Panther today. Look for Duke to pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-10-18 | Notre Dame v. Georgia Tech -1 | 53-60 | Win | 100 | 27 h 51 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Georgia Tech (7:00 EST). Georgia Tech moved back over .500 with a victory over Yale in its final non-conference contest of the season on Saturday, led by a game-high 23 points from Jose Alvarado. The Irish enter off five straight wins, most recently holding on for a tight 51-49 victory over Syracuse on the road. TJ Gibbs led the way in that one with 18 points, while Rex Pflueger added 12 points. Note Dame scores an average of 116.2 points per 100 possessions, while it concedes 95.6 points per 100 possessions. Georgia Tech has looked better on the offensive end of late, but the Yellow Jackets get the job done with their smothering defensive play most nights. Note that GT enters allowing opponents to score 97.9 points per 100 possessions. Most recently the Yellow Jackets beat Miami 64-54. I’ll point out as well that Notre Dame is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after allowing less than 50 points in its previous contest, while Georgia Tech is 6-1 ATS in its last seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The Irish are dealing with injury issues (Farrell questionable, Colson out), while the Yellow Jackets are surging. I like GT to take care of business on its home floor and in its conference opener. Play on the Yellow Jackets. Good luck…Larry |
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01-09-18 | Kings v. Lakers -6.5 | Top | 86-99 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). LA snapped a nine-game slide with a resounding 132-113 victory over Atlanta (Lonzo Ball’s second game back from injury, the dynamic point guard narrowly missing out on a triple-double) and suffice it to say, I expect the team to carry that momentum over here. Note as well that this is a revenge game for the Lakers after they fell 113-102 to the Kings in mid November. The Kings come in off a 107-100 loss in San Antonio just last night and all signs do indeed point to a predictable letdown here. So far Sacramento averages just 97.6 PPG, while conceding 106.2. De’Aaron Fox averages 9.9 points, 2.8 boards and 3.8 assists per game. LA averages 107 PPG and concedes 111.8. Brook Lopez leads the nightly charge with 12.5 points, plus 4.2 boards per game. Ball averages 10.2 points, 6.9 boards and seven assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Sacramento is 0-4 ATS in its last four against teams with a losing straight up record and just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Western Conference, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 130 points or more in its previous contest. Sacramento is dealing with injury issues and is playing the second game of a back to back. After an extended stretch of futility, the last thing the Lakers can do is to “look past” this golden opportunity. Expect a similar game-plan for LA as what it featured in its win over the Hawks as its gets out and pushes the pace with its trademark run and gun style. Lay the points, play on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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01-09-18 | Hurricanes v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -103 | 28 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER Hurricanes/Lightning (7:35 EST). Florida enters off a 7-1 road loss to Boston, while Tampa enters off a 5-2 road victory over Detroit. After winning seven of eight, the Panthers have now lost three of four. Florida enters averaging 2.73 GPG, while conceding 3.00. Cam Ward is 11-5 with a 2.63 GAA, including 6-3 with a 2.81 GAA on the road. Tampa broke a two-game slide with the convincing victory over the Red Wings and it now averages 3.61 GPG, while conceding just 2.41. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is an amazing 26-8 with a 2.04 GAA, including 15-2 with a 2.19 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that Carolina has seen the total go under the number in six of ten already this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Tampa has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last six against clubs with losing records. I think tomorrow’s summaries will be dominated with the talk of these two competent net minders. While each team comes in off a high-scoring affair, everything points to a lower-scoring under in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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01-09-18 | Georgetown v. St. John's -8 | Top | 69-66 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on St. John’s (6:30 EST). The 11-4 Georgetown Hoyas are in St. John’s to take on the 10-6 Red Storm and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Red Storm. Georgetown enters off a 90-66 home loss to Creighton, while St. John’s fell 91-74 to DePaul in its latest action. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Red Storm have to be loving their chances tonight, as note that St. John’s has take two of the last three in the series, including a 74-73 win in the Big East Tournament. The Hoyas average 80.6 PPG and concede 69.9. Center Jessie Govan leads the nightly charge with 18.1 PPG. The Red Storm average 73.6 PPG and concede 68.2. Bashir Ahmed was a bright spot in the latest loss and he’s now scored 21 points in back-to-back games. I’ll point out that Georgetown is just 1-2 ATS in its last three as an underdog, while St. John’s is already 2-1 ATS this year off a loss against a conference rival. St. John’s is the more desperate side as it comes in having lost four straight. I’m expecting a decisive victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-09-18 | Penn State +1 v. Indiana | 70-74 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Penn State (6:30 EST). The 12-5 Penn State Nittany Lions are in Indiana to take on the 9-7 Hoosiers and in my opinion, all signs point to this one favoring the visitors. Penn State enters off a big 78-63 home win over Northwestern on Friday, while Indiana beat Minnesota 75-71 in its latest action. Note that this is a big time revenge scenario for the Nittany Lions after the Hoosiers secured both match ups last year. Penn State averages 77.8 PPG and it concedes 64.8. Tony Carr leads the team with 18.3 PPG. Indiana averages 74.7 PPG and it concedes 72.3. Clearly the margin for error is pretty thin for the Hoosiers, who I think have a predictable letdown here after their big upset win over the Gophers on the road. Guard Robert Johnson came up huge with 28 points and seven boards in that one. However I’ll point out that Penn State is 2-1 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 64 points or less, while Indiana is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight-up victory. The Hoosiers ranks 321st in the country in three-point defense, while the Nittany Lions have been sharp from range this year, shooting just under 38 percent. Penn State has five players averaging in double figures and I simply can’t see the home side matching pace down the stretch. Play on the Nittany Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-18 | Alabama -4.5 v. Georgia | Top | 26-23 | Loss | -107 | 158 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Alabama (9:00 EST). No. 4, 12-1 Alabama gets ready to battle No. 3, 13-1 Georgia in the College Football Playoff title game on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tide. Nick Saban is gunning for his sixth national title as he faces his former assist in Kirby Smart. The Tide come in hot, as they avenged their loss to Clemson in last year’s final by smashing it 24-6 in the Sugar Bowl. Alabama looked particularly impressive on the defensive side of the ball, holding a Tigers team that had averaged 35.5 points and 448.2 YPG, to just two FG’s and a total of 188 yards. Alabama would in fact go on to give just just 64 rushing yards in the victory. QB Jalen Hurts was an efficient 16 of 24 for 120 yards and a pair of TD’s (no INT’s.) Hurts also had 40 rushing yards, while the combo of Bo Scarbrough and Damien Harris went for 101. I think Georgia comes in “gassed” after its thrilling, double OT win over Oklahoma. Sony Michel had 181 yards on 11 carries, while Nick Chubb added 145 yards on the ground. Jake Fromm was 20 of 29 for 210 yards and two TD’s. In all Georgia rolled up 527 yards off offense against a poor Sooners defense. But Fromm, Michel and Chubb will now face their stiffest defensive test of the season and suffice it to say, I believe they’re going to come up short. I’ll point out as well that Alabama is 5-1 ATS in its last six neutral site games when playing the role of favorite, while Georgia is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten neutral site games when playing the role of underdog. Ultimately, I believe the Tide’s aggressive defense proves to be too much for the tired Bulldogs to overcome. Lay the points, play on Alabama. Good luck…Larry |
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01-08-18 | Cavs v. Wolves OVER 217.5 | Top | 99-127 | Win | 100 | 29 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* SHOOTOUT OF THE MONTH is on the OVER between the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). Cleveland comes in off a 131-127 road win over Orlando on Saturday, while Minnesota snapped a two-game slide with a 116-98 victory at home over New Orleans on Saturday. Clearly the Wolves will be looking to build off that win and get a little redemption here, as Cleveland has won six straight in the series, including both games last year. The Cavs come in averaging 110.5 PPG, while allowing 107.7. LeBron James leads the way with 27.6 points, 8.2 boards and 9.1 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.8 points plus 9.8 boards per contest. Note that Cleveland is second in the NBA in made threes with 12.5 per night. The Wolves average 108 PPG and concede 105.2. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.2 points plus 11.9 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 17.6 points plus four rebounds. I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in six of seven already this season after allowing 115 points or more, while Minnesota has seen the total eclipse the posted number in six of ten when playing the role of underdog. I expect these non-conference opponents to push the pace from start to finish and for this one to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Thunder v. Suns +8.5 | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Phoenix Suns (8:05 EST). The Thunder won their second straight with a 127-117 victory over the Clippers on Thursday. The Suns enter having lost two straight, most recently a 103-89 setback in San Antonio on Friday. Note that these teams have yet to play this year, but they’d split four match ups last season with the home side winning each time. The Thunder average 104.9 PPG and concede 100.8. Russell Westbrook leads the nightly charge with 24.8 points, 9.6 boards, ten assists and 2.03 steals per game, while Paul George adds 20.6 points, 5.5 boards and 2.44 steals per game. The Suns average 105.5 PPG and concede 112.4. Devin Booker leads the way with 24.8 points, plus 4.3 assists per game. I’ll point out though that OKC is just 1-2 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and only 6-9 ATS against teams with losing records, while Phoenix is already 8-6 ATS this year following a loss by ten points or more. With a home game against Portland on Tuesday, it’s not too hard to imagine the surging visitors in some small way looking past their lowly opponent tonight. Play on the Suns. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Iowa +9.5 v. Maryland | 73-91 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Iowa (8:00 EST). The 9-8 Iowa Hawkeyes are at Maryland to take on the 13-4 Terrapins and while I’m not going to be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do believe that the pieces are in place for a much more competitive affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Iowa is going to be desperate here as it’s 0-4 so far in league play, with losses to Penn State (77-73), Michigan (75-68), to Indiana (77-64) and to Ohio State (92-81) Maryland is so far 2-1 in conference action, most recently getting crushed by 30 to No. 1 Michigan State on the road Thursday. Iowa comes in averaging 81.2 PPG, while conceding 74.1. Tyler Cook leads the nightly charge with 15.2 points and 6.6 boards per game. Maryland averages 76.9 PPG and it concedes 65. Anthony Cowan averages 16.2 points and 4.5 assists per game. I’ll point out that Iowa is 4-3 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest, while Maryland is already just 4-5 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. As mentioned off the top, I think Iowa coms to play today and keeps it competitive down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Arizona State v. Utah +2 | Top | 80-77 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Utah (8:00 EST). Arizona State comes in off back-to-back losses and I think it looks primed for a letdown here as well. Most recently the Sun Devils fell to Arizona and Colorado respectively. The Utes will look to take advantage and to bounce back from a loss of their own. After winning three of four, Utah enters off a 12 point loss to Arizona. Arizona State has five players which average in double figures, led by Tra Holder with 22 points per game. The Sun Devils average 90 PPG, but they face a stiff test tonight. Utah also has five players averaging double figures. The Utes average 76.1 PPG and have been tough on the defensive end of the floor. Especially at home. Keep your eyes on David Collette, who averages 13.6 PPG. I’ll point out as well that Arizona State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after losing at OT game in its previous contest in which it gave up 90 points or more (lost to Colorado in OT 90-81 last time out), while Utah is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 90 points or more (lost 94-82 to the Wildcats.) I think Utah has the fire-power to match pace and I believe the home side has a clear advantage on the defensive side as well. Play on the Utes. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Panthers +6 v. Saints | Top | 26-31 | Win | 100 | 151 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MOTNH is on the Carolina Panthers (4:30 EST). The 11-5 Carolina Panthers get ready to battle the 11-5 New Orleans Saints in the final NFC Wildcard Game and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, as I expect this one to come right down to the wire. It’s difficult to beat a team three times in one season. New Orleans is a “good” team, but I don’t think it’s a great team. The Panthers do indeed play with double revenge after dropping the first matchup 34-13 and the second one 31-21. Carolina averages 22.7 PPG and concedes 20.4. Cam Newton finished with a 22/16 TD/INT ratio this season, while also adding 754 rushing yards. Carolina features the fourth ranked run game, with Jon Stewart and Christian McCaffrey leading the charge. The Saints average 28 PPG and concede 20.4. QB Drew Brees finished with a 23/8 TD/INT. Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara are also a deadly one-two punch on the ground. I’ll point out though that Carolina has excelled in this spot for bettors all year, going 2-0 ATS off a loss against a division rival and 5-2 ATS as an underdog, while the Saints are just 2-3 ATS this season off a divisional contest. As mentioned off the top, it’s hard enough to beat a team twice in the same season, let alone three times. Only truly great teams can usually accomplish a feat like that. I’m not convinced that the Saints are a great team. Grab the points, play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Sharks v. Jets -130 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Winnipeg Jets (3:05 EST). I think the Sharks have a predictable letdown here after their 6-5 OT loss in Ottawa in their latest action. Conversely, I look for the Jets to build off their 4-3 home win over Buffalo. San Jose comes into this one averaging 2.74 GPG, while ranked fifth in goals allowed by conceding just 2.56 per contest. Goaltender Martin Jones is 13-13 with a 2.54 GAA and just 4-7 with a 2.79 GAA on the road. Winnipeg averages 4.11 GPG and concedes just 2.58 in front of the home town crowd this season. Connor Hellebuyck is 24-10 with a 2.40 GAA, including 15-2 with a 2.24 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that San Jose is just 1-4 in its last five against teams with winning records, while Winnipeg is 40-19 in its last 59 home games against teams with a losing road record. The Sharks are just 9-10 on the road this year, which doesn’t bode well for Jones facing this high-scoring home side. When you add it all up, I think this is fantastic “line value.” Play on the Jets. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | College of Charleston v. Towson -2 | 62-73 | Win | 100 | 9 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Towson (2:00 EST). The 11-4 Charleston Cougars get ready to battle the 11-5 Towson Tigers on Sunday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tigers. This is a revenge game for Towson after it fell 73-62 at Charleston just last week. In that game, Cougars’ junior Jarrell Brantley led the way with 24 points. Charleston though comes to town off a shocking 87-82 loss in OT to Drexel and I think it’s primed for another letdown here against this revenge minded Towson side. In their last game the Cougars shot just 41.7 percent against the Dragons and only 6 of 19 from range. Charleston would also go on to allow Drexel to shoot 56.9 percent from the floor. Note that the Tigers broke a four-game slide by bouncing back from the loss to Charleston with a convincing 89-71 home win over UNCW on Friday. Towson forced 17 turnovers against the Seahawks, while also also winning the rebound battle by eight. The Tigers would also go on to shoot 12 of 22 from range and 54 percent overall, led by Mike Morsell with 24 points. I’ll point out as well that Charleston is just 1-2 ATS this year after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest, while Towson is 2-1 ATS after scoring 80 points or more this season and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 trying to revenge a road loss against an opponent. For all the reasons listed above, play on Towson. Good luck…Larry |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars OVER 39.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -107 | 148 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Bills/Jags (1:00 EST). The 9-7 Buffalo Bills get ready to battle the 10-6 Jacksonville Jaguars in this AFC Wildcard playoff and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fly over the posted number once it’s all said and done. Buffalo beat the Dolphins 22-16 in their regular season finale and got some outside help from the Bengals to earn their first postseason berth in 17 years. The Jags lost 15-10 in their Week 17 matchup against Tennessee, but still won the AFC South with a 10-6 record. The Bills won three of four down the stretch. QB Tyrod Taylor had a respectable 14/4 TD/INT ratio. RB LeSean McCoy is questionable with an ankle injury, a situation which could very well see the team open up the playbook, putting added pressure on WR Charles Clay, who had six grabs for 64 yards last week. The Bills average 18.9 PPG and concede 22.4. The Jags average 26.1 PPG and concede just 16.8. QB Blake Bortles finished with a 21/13 TD/INT. RB Leonard Fournette finished with 1,040 rushing yards and nine TD’s. I’ll point out though that Buffalo has seen the total go over the number in ten of its last 17 against teams with winning records, while Jacksonville has seen the total soar above the posted number in five of seven off a loss against a division rival. I think we’re going to see a much more wide open affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Nuggets v. Kings +4 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* PEFECT STORM is on the Sacramento Kings (10:05 EST). The 20-17 Denver Nuggets are in Sacramento to take on the 12-25 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. Denver comes to town off a very satisfying 99-91 win at home over Utah just last night and faces a now desperate Sacramento side which comes in having lost three straight and which also plays with revenge after falling to Denver 114-98 in late November. The Kings have had three whole nights off to rest and prepare for this one as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Sacramento is 8-2 ATS in its last ten when playing with three or more days rest and already 8-7 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest, while Denver is only 8-10 ATS this year against teams with losing records and just 1-2 ATS against good offensive teams which score 98 plus points per contest. It’s a perfect storm of situational factors working in favor of the lowly home side today and while I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Wild v. Avalanche +115 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 115 | 30 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG SHOCKER OF THE MONTH is on the Colorado Avalanche (9:00 EST). The 22-16-3 Minnesota Wild are in Colorado to take on the 21-16-3 Avalanche and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Minnesota comes in off a 6-2 win over Buffalo on Thursday, while Colorado comes in off a 2-0 win over Columbus in its latest action. Note that this is a revenge game for Colorado after it fell 3-2 to the Wild in a shootout in the only other meeting this year. Minnesota averages 2.9 GPG and it concedes 2.8. Goaltender Devan Dubnyk is 15-8-2 with a 2.57 GAA. The Avs average 3.2 GPG and concede 3.00. Jonathan Bernier is 8-7-1 with a 2.94 GAA. Gabriel Landeskog has 12 points in his last nine games. I’ll point out that Minnesota is just 6-7 (-1.8 units) this year against division opponents and only 6-7 (-2.2 units) following a win by two goals or more, while Colorado is 4-1 (+3.5 units) in its last five in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think the Avs offer great value in this spot. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Duke v. NC State +11.5 | Top | 85-96 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* ACC GAME OF THE MONTH is on NC State (8:00 EST). I think that NC State is the “hungrier” and more focused team. NC State enters having dropped two straight on the road in ACC play. Duke most recently smashed Evansville by 64 points and then held on for dear life in a 100-93 victory over Florida State on December 30th. Marvin Bagley III had 32 points and 21 boards. NC State is out to atone for back to back poor performances, getting blown out at Clemson and then again 88-58 at Notre Dame in their most recent setback. Senior guard Allerik Freeman was a bright spot with 13 points in that one. I’ll point out though that the Wolfpack have in fact performed extremely well in this spot over the years, going 6-2 ATS in their last eight after scoring 60 points or less in their previous contest. Conversely, note that Duke is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 92 points or more in its previous outing. NC State lost to Duke 84-82 last season and I believe that the conditions are once again correct for a very competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Falcons v. Rams -4.5 | Top | 26-13 | Loss | -123 | 131 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (8:15 EST). The 10-6 Atlanta Falcons get ready to battle the 11-5 LA Rams on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. ATL needed a 22-12 win in Week 17 to notch its playoff berth this year. LA lost its regular season finale 34-13 to the surging San Francisco 49ers, but it had already secured home field in the Wildcard by winning the NFC West earlier. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan wasn’t his usual productive self this year, finishing with a 20/12 TD/INT. WR Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards on 88 catches. Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman form a difficult duo to stop on the ground. Note that ATL averages just 22.1 PPG (15th), while conceding 19.7 (8th.) LA averages 29.9 PPG (1st) and concedes just 20.6 (12th.) QB Jared Goff had a huge year with a sharp 28/7 TD/INT. RB Todd Gurley had 1,305 rushing yards with 13 TD’s and 788 receiving yards as well. Additionally I’ll point out that this is in fact a spot in which the Falcons have struggled in this year for bettors, going just 2-6 ATS on the road and only 4-5 ATS against teams with winning records, while LA has excelled in this position by going 3-1 ATS this year as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and 5-3 ATS against teams with winning records. LA has a “second gear” which I have a hard time seeing the Falcons keeping up too on the road in this hostile environment. I think Goff puts on a show and Gurley delivers the knock out blow down the stretch. Lay the points with confidence, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Cavs v. Magic OVER 222 | 131-127 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Cavaliers/Magics (7:05 EST). Cleveland comes to town angry after its listless 102-88 setback at Boston on Wednesday. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as Orlando was most recently crushed 116-98 at home to the Rockets. Note that the Cavs actually play with revenge here tonight as well after they fell 114-93 at home to the Magic at the beginning of the season. Cleveland averages 109.9 PPG and it concedes 107.2. LeBron James leads the way with 27.5 points, 8.1 boards and 9.1 assists per game, while Kevin Love adds 19.6 points plus ten boards per contest. The Magic average 104.5 PPG and concede 110.2. Nikola Vucevic averages 17.4 points, plus 9.3 boards per game. Vucevic is out, but I still believe that the hungry home side will keep this one competitive. Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in 11 of 16 already this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent and in six of nine when playing with two days rest, while Orlando has seen the total go over the number in eight of 14 already this season after three or more consecutive SU losses and in five of seven when the total in the contest is greater than or equal to 220 points. I expect a wide open affair and for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | 22-21 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Wild Card Las Vegas Insider is on the KC Chiefs at 4:35 ET. The 9-7 Tennessee Titans get ready to battle the 10-6 KC Chiefs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Tennessee beat the Jaguars 15-10 last week to finish with the fifth seed in the AFC, while Kansas City got the better of Denver 27-24 in its finale, a victory which clinched the AFC West. Note that this is a bit of a “revenge” game for the Chiefs, as the Titans beat them 19-17 in their lone matchup last year. Tennessee averages 20.9 PPG (19th) and it concedes 22.2 (17th). The victory in Week 17 snapped a three-game slide. Clearly Bills fans are the most excited right now, but Titans fans aren’t far behind as the team hasn’t been in the playoffs since 2008. QB Marcus Mariota finished with a poor 13/15 TD/INT this year though. Titans’ RB Derrick Henry will be leaned upon heavily here, as DeMarco Murray sat out last week and he’s also questionable for this one (if he does play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity.) KC averages 25.9 PPG and concedes 21.2. QB Alex Smith finished with 4,042 passing yards and a sharp 26/5 TD/INT ratio. RB Kareem Hunt finished with 1,327 rushing yards and 455 receiving yards. WR Tyreek Hill had 1,183 receiving yards and seven TD’s this season. The Chiefs come in on top form, having won four straight. I’ll point out as well that Tennessee is just 3-5 ATS on the road this year, while KC is 6-2 ATS at home. The Titans backed their way into the postseason, while the Chiefs come in as division winners. I expect Kansas City to take advantage of home field and to easily pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Princeton v. Pennsylvania -1.5 | 70-76 | Win | 100 | 50 h 32 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Pennsylvania (7:00 EST). The Princeton Tigers have won five of their last six, including over Akron and Hawaii most recently. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here. Penn on the other hand had won four in a row, before then falling to Toledo last week. Princeton opened the year by going 2-6, but it’s since gone 5-1. The Tigers have been effective shooting the ball during the turnaround, hitting 48.5 percent overall, including 41 percent from range. The Quakers though have the firepower to match their opponent today. Note that six different players have led Pennsylvania in single-game scoring this year. The Quakers have now scored at least 90 points four times this season, but they’ll be out to atone for a rather lacklustre 85-72 loss at home to Toledo last time out. I’ll point out as well that Princeton has already struggled mightily in this spot for bettors this season, going just 2-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Pennsylvania has done well in this position over the years by going a perfect 3-0 ATS as home favorite of three points or less or pick. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think, as Princeton has won eight straight in the series. The tables have turned now though in my opinion and I look for the “hungrier” revenge-minded team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Pennsylvania. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Arizona v. Colorado +9.5 | 77-80 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Colorado (2:00 EST). The 12-3 Arizona Wildcats are at the 9-6 Colorado Buffaloes on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Arizona comes in of a 93-84 road win over Utah in its latest action, while Colorado comes in off an upset 88-84 victory over Arizona State. Note that this is a double revenge game for the Buffs after they lost both meetings last year. Arizona averages 84.2 PPG and concedes 72.2. Deandre Ayton had 24 points and 14 boards in his team’s latest victory. Colorado averages 75.4 PPG and concedes 74.2. The Buffaloes though looked pretty good in their 90-81 OT win over fourth-ranked Arizona State on Thursday to move to 2-1 in conference action. The Buffs looked particularly impressive on the defensive end, limiting Arizona State to just 36 percent from the floor. McKinley Wright IV finished with 19 points and five assists. I’ll point out as well that Arizona is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS win and just 2-7-1 ATS in its last ten against teams with a winning straight up record, while Colorado is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a home underdog. Arizona has allowed 78 and 82 points respectively over its last two games, so I think Colorado has much more than just a “punchers chance” at an outright upset today as well. That said, grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-06-18 | Louisville +8.5 v. Clemson | 69-74 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Louisville (12:00 EST). The 11-3 Louisville Cardinals are at Clemson to take on the 13-1 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Louisville comes in having won seven of its last eight, including a 77-51 victory over Pittsburgh at home on Tuesday. Clemson enters having won nine straight, including a 74-70 victory over Boston College on Wednesday. The Cardinals got 19 points from Quentin Snider on Tuesday and out rebounded the Panthers by 15, while also forcing 15 turnovers. Louisville enters averaging 77.4 PPG, while conceding 65.4. Clemson averages 78.1 PPG and concedes 63.1. Marcquise Reed leads the team with 15.3 points, 3.1 assists and 4.9 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Louisville is 3-1 ATS in its last four after holding its previous opponent to 52 points or less, while Clemson is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after allowing 70 points or more. David Padgett has done a nice job to keep his team competitive in the wake of the Rick Pitino scandal and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the visitors have all the pieces in place to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points, play on Louisville. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-18 | Golden Knights v. Blackhawks -118 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -118 | 31 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Blackhawks (8:30 EST). This is a “common sense” play for me. The Vegas Golden Knights come in off a hard-fought 2-1 loss in St. Louis just last night and suffice it to say, I think they’ll have a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back to back. Chicago comes in off an impressive 5-2 win over New York and it will be looking to take advantage of this situation after some recent shoddy play. Clearly Las Vegas has been a big surprise this year, almost unbeatable at home and still decent on the road with a 10-8-0-1 record. The Hawks play with revenge today as well though after falling 4-2 to Vegas in late October. Chicago has won four straight at home and I believe the stars have aligned for it in this particular matchup. All things considered, this is the very definition of “great line value” in my opinion. Play on the Blackhawks. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-18 | Raptors v. Bucks +1.5 | 129-110 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 7 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Milwaukee Bucks (8:05 EST). Toronto enters off a 124-115 road win in Chicago on Wednesday, while Milwaukee won for the third time in four games in a 122-101 victory over Indiana on Wednesday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement, as Toronto has won eight of the last nine, including a 131-127 OT victory at home in the most recent matchup just this past Monday. Toronto averages 111.6 PPG and concedes 103.8. DeMar DeRozan averages 25.2 points, plus five assists per game, while Kyle Lowry adds 16.2 points, plus 6.1 boards per contest. Milwaukee averages 105.9 PPG and concedes 105.8. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the way with 29.1 points, 10.4 boards, 4.7 assists, 1.32 blocks and 1.65 steals per game. Eric Bledsoe is so far averaging 17.9 points, plus 4.3 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Toronto is still just 6-8 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while Milwaukee is 9-6 ATS against clubs with winning records this season and 6-4 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106-plus points per contest. The Raptors have been playing exceptionally, but I think they run out of gas here vs. this revenge minded Bucks team. Grab the points, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-18 | Wolves +5.5 v. Celtics | Top | 84-91 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (7:05 EST). Minnesota comes into this one focused after its 98-97 road loss in Brooklyn on Wednesday, while Boston looks primed for a letdown here against this non-conference opponent and after winning four straight, including a decisive 102-88 victory at home over Cleveland in its most recent action. The Wolves enter averaging 108.4 PPG, while conceding 105.7. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.1 points, plus 11.5 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 17.7 points, plus four boards per contest. The Celtics average 103.4 PPG and concede just 98.2. Kyrie Irving leads the team with 24.4 points, 4.9 assists and 1.23 steals per game. Note though that Minnesota is 2-1 ATS in its last three off an upset loss as a favorite, while Boston is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after playing three consecutive home games. With a “winnable” game at Brooklyn tomorrow night, this also sets up as a bit of a “look ahead” spot for the home side as well. While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to grab the points as I envision this one coming right down to the wire. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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01-05-18 | James Madison +9 v. Hofstra | Top | 81-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on James Madison (7:00 EST). While I’m not calling for the outright upset, I do think that the 4-11 James Madison Dukes will keep this one competitive enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the healthy spread that they’ve been afforded in this one. The Dukes have lost three straight and five of their last six. Hofstra is 8-6, but I think it’s poised for a letdown here after edging Northeastern 71-70 on Tuesday. JMU averages 74.9 PPG and concedes 77.1. One bright spot in their 84-76 setback to William & Mary in their latest action is that the Dukes would go on to force 18 turnovers. Stuckey Mosley leads the nightly charge with 19.3 PPG so far this year. Hofstra averages 77.9 PPG and concedes 77.8. Justin Wright-Foreman had 27 points in the victory over Northeastern and he leads the Pride with 24.4 PPG. I’ll point out though that JMU has performed extremely well in this spot already for bettors this year, going 3-1 ATS on the road and 21-16 ATS in its last 37 following a conference game, while Hofstra is just 1-2 ATS against teams with losing records and only 1-5 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of 6.5 to nine points. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-04-18 | Arizona -4 v. Utah | Top | 94-82 | Win | 100 | 31 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is in Arizona (9:00 EST). Arizona comes in on top form as it’s now won eight straight, most recently downing Arizona State 84-78 in its first conference test of the year earlier in the week. Alonzo Trier and Deandre Ayton each had 23 points in that one. The Wildcats come in averaging 118.4 PPG per 100 possessions, while limiting their opponents to 97.3 points per 100 possessions. Arizona’s big improvement of late though is definitely on the defensive side of the ball, as it is blocking 11.9 percent of its opponents field goal attempts. Utah looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after opening Pac 12 play with an undefeated 2-0 record, beating Oregon 66-56, before then holding on for a tight 66-64 win at Oregon State. Five players average double figures for the Utes, led by 13.2 points from David Collette. I’ll point out though that the Wildcats are 5-2 ATS in their last seven in Utah, while the Utes are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. Arizona has two 7-footers in its line-up (Trier and Ayton), which Utah is going to have difficulty matching up against. I think the visitors keep the momentum rolling. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-04-18 | Hawaii +1 v. Long Beach State | 81-89 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on Hawaii (10:00 EST). Hawaii will be eager to show what it can do on the road, as it’s already played 12 of its first 13 games at home this year. The Warriors lost their only road game this year, by 20 in Utah, so there’s no question that they’ll be out for a much better effort this time around. Hawaii though comes to town off a solid 84-59 win over Howard last week. Jack Purchase came off the bench to post 22 points. The Warriors are a relentless team, which loves to attack. In fact, Hawaii’s collects 23.6 percent of its overall points from the charity stripe, which ranks it 14th in that category. LBSU is led by Gabe Levin with 15 PPG, while Bryan Alberts is the only other member to score in double figures with 14. The 49ers have struggled defensively, as opponents have shot 56.3 percent from the floor, which ranks the team 319th in the country. LBSU has been particularly inept in guarding the perimeter, as opponents have hit a massive 57.0 percent from range, which ranks the team 332nd in the NCAA in that category. Additionally I’ll point out that Hawaii is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 after allowing 60 points or less in its previous contest and already 3-1 ATS this year against teams with losing records, while LBSU is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 after allowing 60 points or less and just 1-6 ATS this year against teams with winning records. LBSU has faced a stiff opening schedule, but the 49ers weakness on defense plays right into the Warriors strength on offense. I’m banking on Hawaii’s success from three-point range to be just too much for Long Beach State to handle down the stretch. Play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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01-04-18 | Ducks v. Oilers -126 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Edmonton Oilers (9:05 EST). Edmonton will be desperate here as it’s so far gone 0-2-1 during a four-game home stand. The Oilers sit nine points out of a playoff spot, which is being held by Anaheim. The Ducks look poised for a letdown here in my opinion though as they’ve won three straight, most recently getting the better of the Canucks 5-0 on Tuesday. Anaheim averages 2.7 GPG, while it concedes 2.7 as well. Edmonton has in fact lost four straight, most recently a 5-0 setback at home to the Kings. Connor McDavid remains a bright spot on the team with 45 points overall. Additionally I’ll point out that Anaheim has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors already this season, going 0-2 (-2.4 units) after shutting out its opponents in its previous game and just 4-5 (-1.7 units) after a win by two goals or more, while Edmonton is 5-2 (+2.4 units) against division opponents this season and 6-4 (+1.9 units) after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. I think the Ducks have a letdown here after their big 5-0 win and I look for the Oilers to risk life and limb today after back-to-back 5-0 losses. All things considered a great price, play on Edmonton. Good luck…Larry |
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01-04-18 | SMU v. Tulane +8.5 | 70-73 | Win | 100 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Tulane (9:00 EST). SMU looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after winning its fifth straight in a 79-39 victory over South Florida at home on Sunday. Tulane though will be eager to return to the winners circle after its three game win streak was snapped in a 65-56 home loss to Tulsa last Sunday. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Green Wave would be a bit of an understatement in my opinion, as SMU has won five straight in the series, including an 80-75 victory in the most recent matchup back on February 15th. SMU averages 75.5 PPG and concedes 58.9. Shake Milton had 14 points in his teams blowout win over South Florida. Tulane averages 76.4 PPG and concedes 70.8. Cameron Reynolds had 15 points in his team’s latest loss. Melvin Fraser leads the team overall with 17 points, plus 5.9 boards and 3.3 assists per game. I’ll point out though that SMU is just 3-4 ATS this year against teams with winning records and just 1-3 ATS after allowing 60 points or less, while Tulane is 2-1 ATS in its last three against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per game. Tulane is 7-1 at home this year and it certainly won’t be intimidated. SMU has a fight on its hands tonight and while I won’t be so bold as to predict the outright upset, all signs point to this one being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, play on Tulane. Good luck…Larry |
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01-04-18 | Houston +9 v. Wichita State | 63-81 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Houston (7:00 EST). The 12-2 Houston Cougars are at the 11-2 Wichita State Shockers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cougars. Houston enters off a 76-73 win over Temple, while Wichita State comes in off a 72-62 road win over UConn. Houston has won four straight. The Cougars average 80.6 PPG and concede 66.6. The Cougars out rebounded the Owls 42-27 and Breaon Brady led the way with a season-high 21 points. Rob Gray leads the team overall with 19 PPG average. Wichita State averages 84.7 points and concedes 70.2. The Shockers have won three straight, most recently getting 16 points from Landry Shamet in the victory over Connecticut. I’ll point out though that Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five on the road, while Wichita State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. The Cougars are limiting their opponents to just 39.7 percent shooting this year and are also a strong rebounding team. Outright, straight-up victory? Possibly of course. But in the end, I’ll recommend grabbing the points as I expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. Good luck…Larry |
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01-04-18 | Ohio State v. Iowa -1 | 92-81 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 12 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Iowa (7:00 EST). The 11-4 Ohio State Buckeyes are in Iowa to take on the 9-7 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. As mentioned in my promo, this play narrowly missed out on being a top rated 10* selection. All of the pieces are in place for a comfortable victory for the home side though in my opinion. Ohio State bounced back from a loss to UNC to beat Miami Ohio last Saturday, while Iowa had its five game win streak snapped in a loss to Michigan on Tuesday. Ohio State got 19 points, nine boards and five blocks from Keita Bates-Dion in the win over the Redhawks. Iowa is going to be the more desperate team here in my opinion, as its still winless in Big Ten play after its 75-68 setback to Michigan at home on Tuesday (the Hawkeyes have also lost to Penn State, 77-73 and Indiana, 77-64.) Tyler Cook had 28 points and eight boards in his team’s latest loss: “Learn from it and flush this one is the most important thing,” Cook assessed following the setback against Michigan. “As a unit we need to make sure we’re picking each other up and to a man we need to do better.” I’ll point out as well that Ohio State is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records and only 12-30-1 ATS in its last 43 road games overall, while Iowa is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six home games and 3-1-2 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records. Ohio State hasn’t beaten Iowa on the road since 2014. I believe the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Iowa. Good luck…Larry |
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01-03-18 | NC State +9 v. Notre Dame | Top | 58-88 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on NC State (9:00 EST). The 10-4 NC State Wolfpack are in Notre Dame to take on the 11-3 Irish and while I’m not going to predict an outright upset, I do believe that the conditions are right for a much more competitive affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Notre Dame comes in a tiny bit complacent after three straight wins, while NC State enters focused after its two game win streak was snapped in a loss at Clemson last Saturday. The Wolfpack couldn’t get anything going in the 78-62 loss to the Tigers. Regardless of the sub-par effort though, NC State sill averages 84.3 PPG, while conceding just 70.6. Allerik Freeman leads the nightly charge 15.4 PPG. The Irish come in off a 68-59 victory over Georgia Tech. Before its three-game win skein though, Notre Dame had dropped three of five. The Irish now have to deal with a significant injury that occurred a couple of days ago in practice, as senior forward Bonzie Colson, who led the team in scoring (21.4) and rebounds (10.4) is now out for at least eight weeks with a fracture in his foot. And for me, that’s going to be the difference maker here. Notre Dame is going to be forced to go through a transition period as it tries to figure out how to fill the void. For all the reasons listed above, play on NC State. Good luck…Larry |
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01-03-18 | Raptors v. Bulls UNDER 216 | Top | 124-115 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the under Raptors/Bulls (8:05 EST). The 25-10 Toronto Raptors are in Chicago to take on the 13-24 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Raptors come in off back to back wins over the Hawks and Bucks, while the Bulls enter having dropped two straight to the Wizards and Blazers. Toronto looks poised for a letdown here though after its epic 131-127 OT win over Milwaukee last time out, as DeMar DeRozan would explode for 52 points. There’s no doubt that the effort took a lot out of DeRozan, who I think will be caught “looking ahead” to Friday night and the rematch in Milwaukee. Chicago will look to take advantage and to try to avoid a three-game losing streak. But the Bulls also come in off an exhausting affair, falling 124-120 in OT to the Blazers on Monday. I’ll point out that the Raptors have seen the total go under the number in four of six already this year after allowing 115 points or more, while the Bulls have seen the total dip below the posted number in six of nine in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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01-03-18 | Blackhawks v. Rangers -145 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -145 | 26 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Rangers (8:05 EST). Chicago comes in off a 4-3 OT loss in Calgary, while the Rangers are off a 3-2 OT win over Buffalo in the Winter Classic. The Blackhawks sit in tenth in the West, averaging only 2.95 GPG. On the defensive end they’ve been decent, allowing 2.76. Goaltender Jeff Glass gave up four goals on 39 shots in his last outing and he’s now 1-1 with a 3.46 GAA. New York averages 3.10 GPG and concedes 2.69. Goaltender Henrik Lundqvist is 13-6 with a 2.38 GAA at home this year. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 3-9 in its last 12 against teams with winning records, while New York is a solid 35-17 in its last 52 against the Western Conference. Both teams come in scuffling, but I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this matchup. I also believe that New York has a significant advantage in net tonight and that makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Rangers. Good luck…Larry |
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01-02-18 | Predators +125 v. Golden Knights | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Nashville Predators (10:00 EST). Vegas enters 2018 having gone 16-2-1 at the T-Mobile Arena. Nashville though looks to score an upset here, coming into this contest averaging 3.2 GPG, fuelled by a No. 2 ranked power play that converts on 25.0 percent of its chances. Vegas most recently beat the Leafs 6-3 on Sunday. It was the Knights seventh win in a row. The Golden Knights have been getting exceptional goaltending, but the Predators can match pace with Pekka Rinne in that department. Nashville plays with revenge here as well after falling to Vegas earlier in the year and note that the Predators are already a solid 9-7 (+1.2 units) this season in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think that the Knights stumble here against this equally as powerful Western Conference foe. Great value, play on the Predators. Good luck…Larry |
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01-02-18 | Spurs v. Knicks +4 | Top | 100-91 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Knicks (7:35 EST). The Spurs’ three-game win streak was snapped in a listless 93-79 setback in Detroit on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I believe this one sets up as a letdown spot as well. The Knicks will look to take advantage and build off a solid 105-103 road win over New Orleans, a victory which broke a four-game slide. Note that this is a revenge game for New York as well after it fell 119-107 in the first matchup this year back on December 28th. San Antonio averages 101.2 PPG and concedes just 98.1 (ranked first.) Kawhi Leonard returned in December, but he’s so far struggled, averaging 13.5 points and 3.5 boards per game. LaMarcus Aldridge has carried the Spurs on his back for the most part this year with 22 points per night average. New York averages 103.6 PPG and concedes 103.7. Kristaps Porzingis averages 24.5 points, 6.7 boards and 2.23 blocks a night, while Enes Kanter chips in 13.5 points, plus 10.3 boards per game. I’ll point out that San Antonio is just 3-5 ATS this year though when playing with two days rest and only 2-3 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite, while New York is 4-3 ATS when playing on two days rest and 5-4 ATS off an upset win as an underdog. Outright, straight-up upset? Obviously with a spread like this, that’s not out of the question. However, in a contest which I envision being decided late, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can in the end. Good luck…Larry |
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01-02-18 | Towson -2 v. Elon | Top | 72-75 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Towson (7:00 EST). The 10-4 Towson Tigers get ready to battle the 9-5 Elon Phoenix on Tuesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Towson will be desperate here. The Tigers opened the season with ten straight victories, but they come in having lost three straight. Elon on the other hand comes in complacent, it’s won three of four, including two straight, most recently a 90-75 win over Drexel on Saturday. Towson averages 72 PPG and concedes 67.5. Zane Martin leads the team with an average of 18.1 PPG, while Mike Morsell chips in 12.5 per contest. The Phoenix average 74.5 PPG and concede 72.7. Dainan Swoope leads the nightly charge with an average of 15.1 PPG. I’ll point out though that this is a spot in which the Tigers have excelled in for bettors, going 8-6 ATS in their last 14 off a loss against a conference rival, while Elon is 0-5 ATS in its last five as a home dog of three points or less or pick. I like Towson to get back on track after an extended Christmas Break. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | Magic +4 v. Nets | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 31 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Orlando Magic (7:30 EST). The Magic will be hungry here, they come in off a 117-111 loss at home to the Heat on Saturday, their tenth loss in their last 11 games. But here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against as the Nets come in off a deflating 108-105 loss in Boston just last night. Orlando averages 104.8 PPG and concedes 110.2. Nikola Vucevic leads the team with 17.4 points, plus 9.3 boards per game. Vucevic though is out with inury. Brooklyn averages 107.5 PPG and concedes 110 per contest. D’Angelo Russell leads the team with 20.9 points and 5.7 assists per game. But Russell remains out with injury as well. Yesterday was the finale of a five-game trip for the Nets and there’s no question that this now sets up as a classic “letdown/trap” for the home side. Additionally note that Orlando is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 115 points or more in its previous contest, while Brooklyn just 6-8 ATS this season against clubs with losing records. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Magic. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | Georgia v. Oklahoma | Top | 54-48 | Win | 100 | 488 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Georgia (5:00 EST). The 12-1 Georgia Bulldogs get ready to battle the 12-1 Oklahoma Sooners in the Rose Bowl for a chance at the National title on the line. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. QB Kirby Smart led Georgia to an 8-1 SEC record and a convincing 28-7 win over Auburn for the SEC title. Oklahoma is led by QB Baker Mayfield, who would direct the Sooners to eight straight wins to end the season, including a 41-17 victory over TCU in the Big 12 title game. Georgia averages 34.0 PPG. QB Jake Fromm has thrown for 2,173 yards and owns a very respectable 21/5 TD/INT ratio. The offense revolves around the run though, led by Nick Chubb, who had 1,175 yards and 13 TD’s. The Bulldogs rank fourth overall on the defensive side of the ball by allowing just 270.9 YPG, led by LB Roquan Smith, who had 113 tackles and 5.5 sacks. Mayfield just earned AP Player of the Year honors for Oklahoma and in the conference championship game he had 243 yards, four TD’s as well as running for 65. Mayfield has a 41/5 TD/INT ratio. Oklahoma leads the country with an average of 583.3 YPG, while conceding just 384.7 overall. I’ll point out though that Georgia is 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games and 4-1 ATS in its last five Bowls, while Oklahoma is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine neutral site affairs. Georgia has the offense to hang with Oklahoma. The Bulldogs’ superior defense though is the difference maker for me. They say: “defense wins championships.” While it’s yet to be seen if the Bulldogs’ nation leading defensive unit can take the national title, all signs point to it being the deciding factor in this year’s Rose Bowl. Play on Georgia. Good luck…Larry |
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01-01-18 | South Carolina v. Michigan -7.5 | Top | 26-19 | Loss | -110 | 362 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Michigan (12:00 EST). Both South Carolina and Michigan finished with identical 8-4 records. Jim Harbaugh and the Wolverines will be out for a little redemption here though after a disappointing year. Michigan would go on to drop its final two games of the season against Wisconsin and Ohio State. QB John O’Korn and RB Karan Higdon have looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. As South Carolina’s defense goes, so go the Gamecocks. Michigan’s defense is even better though. A major blow to the Gamecocks offense as well comes in the form of nagging injuries to both RB’s, as Rico Dowdle and AJ Turner suffered setbacks to end the season. Dowdle fractured his fibula, while Turner twisted an ankle. Both are listed as questionable, but if they do happen to suit up and play, one has to wonder how effective they’re really going to be? I’ll point out that South Carolina is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while Michigan is 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival. Michigan has its issues, that’s why it’s playing in the Outback Bowl this year. But South Carolina is far from perfect either. I think Harbaugh has his team prepared for this one and I believe the Wolverine’s superior defense will also prove to be a big difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Blackhawks v. Flames -129 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Calgary Flames (9:00 EST). The 18-14-5 Chicago Blackhawks are in Calgary to take on the 18-16-4 Flames on New Years Eve and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. Chicago enters off a 4-3 OT road win over Edmonton, while Calgary lost 2-1 in Anaheim in its latest action. The Hawks average 2.9 GPG and concede 2.7. Goaltender Corey Crawford owns a 16-9-2 record and a 2.27 GAA thus far. The Flames average 2.7 GPG and concede 2.8. Netminder Mike Smith has a 14-13-3 record to go along with a 2.56 GAA. I’ll point out though that Chicago is just 4-5 (-2.5 units) in its last nine after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Calgary is 6-3 (+2.6 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing and 2-0 (+2.5 units) after three or more consecutive losses. The Flames are the much “hungrier” team and home ice can’t be overlooked as a very real factor either in this situation. In my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Flames. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Washington State +14.5 v. USC | Top | 71-89 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on Washington State (9:00 EST). Washington State comes in off a hard-fought 96-82 road loss to UCLA on Thursday, while USC had its three game win streak snapped in an 88-81 home loss to Washington. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Cougars, who have lost four straight in the series, including an 87-64 setback last year. Washington State averages 77 PPG and concedes 74.6. After starting the year 7-1, the Cougars have now dropped four of their last six. Robert Franks led the charge in the conference opening setback with 20 points and eight boards. The Trojans average 81.5 PPG and concede 74.1. In USC’s latest loss, Chimeize Metu posted 26 points. Metu leads the nightly charge with an average of 18.6 points, plus 8.1 boards per game. I’ll point out though that WSU has performed extremely well in this spot for bettors all year, going 5-1 ATS against good offensive schools which average 77-plus points per contest and 4-2 ATS as an underdog, while USC is just 3-5 ATS at home and only 15-17 ATS in its last 32 against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per game. I’m not predicting an outright victory, but all signs point to a much closer affair than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Lakers +14.5 v. Rockets | Top | 142-148 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Lakers (7:00 EST). LA won’t be lacking for motivation tonight as it’s lost five straight, including getting thrashed in the last three. Here’s the perfect opponent to get untracked against, as Houston comes in floundering, having lost five straight. The Lakers have lost eight of their last nine, but their one victory was a 122-116 win over Houston on the road. LA most recently dropped a 121-106 decision to the Clippers. One bright spot was the fact that the Lakers posted 70 points in the paint. Will the Rockets get caught “looking past” the lowly Lakers tonight? I think it’s very possible, with a couple days off before another road game, this time in Orlando. Houston most recently comes in off a 121-103 loss to Washington, shooting just 42.7 percent, including only 14 of 48 from range. James Harden was a bright spot in that one with 20 points, but no rebounds to go along with four assists and five turnovers. Note that big man Clint Cappella has missed the last two games and he’s questionable for this one as well. Additionally I’ll point out that the Lakers are 10-5 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 7-5 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while Houston is 1-2 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more and 0-4 ATS as a home fav in the 12.5 to 18 points range. Clearly Houston is the better team. But the desperate Lakers are in a good position to keep this one competitive and that’s exactly what I expect to see happen. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Panthers v. Falcons -3.5 | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 124 h 53 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 17 Las Vegas Insider is on the Atl Falcons at 4:25 ET. Carolina has clinched a playoff spot by beating Tampa Bay last weekend. The Falcons are going to need to win this game for a chance at the playoffs after falling 23-13 to the red hot Saints last weekend. ATL QB Matt Ryan was 22 of 36 for 288 yards in the setback: “I think we stay on schedule,” Ryan assessed earlier in the week. “We can’t put ourselves behind the chains with self-inflicted wounds. We can’t do that. And then when we get our chances to make plays, we’ve got to make the plays. It’s not that complicated. When we get our opportunities, we’ve got to make plays. Again, we believe we’re going to do that. We’re going to have a great week of preparation.” Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 160 yards passing and 52 rushing last week. I’ll point out thought that Carolina is just 6-13-1 ATS in its last 20 after allowing more than 350 total yards in its previous outing, while Atlanta is 20-8 ATS in its last 28 after scoring less than 15 points in its previous game. The “hungrier” team is the correct call here. Newton and company have done their job and I think they’ll “fold up their tents” early against this determined home side. Lay the points, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Bengals +10 v. Ravens | Top | 31-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (4:25 EST). The 6-9 Cincinnati Bengals are in Baltimore to take on the 9-6 Ravens in Week 17 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that this is a revenge game for Cincinnati after Baltimore shut it out 20-0 at home back on September 10th. The Bengals come in off a confidence boosting 26-17 home win over Detroit and while Cincinnati won’t be performing in the off-season, it’ll definitely be looking to avenge the earlier loss and try to play spoiler to the still playoff hopeful Ravens. Cincinnati QB Andy Dalton has a 22/12 TD/INT, while WR AJ Green has 1,061 receiving yards and eight TD catches this year. Baltimore comes in off a 23-16 home win over the Colts. QB Joe Flacco had 237 yards and two TD’s. RB Alex Collins had 51 yards on 18 carries. I’ll point out thought that the Bengals have done well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four in trying to revenge a shutout loss against an opponent, while Baltimore is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after holding its previous opponent to 17 points or less. Note that the underdog is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. The Ravens barely got by the Colts last weekend, which doesn’t bode well in facing this vastly more talented and revenge minded Bengals team in my opinion. Outright victory? Very possible. In fact, I’ll also recommend “sprinkling” a little on the money line if you can. Play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | 49ers v. Rams -4 | 34-13 | Loss | -104 | 123 h 29 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Rams (4:25 EST). San Francisco has won four straight and it’s going to be eager to score another upset on the road here against a Rams team which just beat Tennessee 27-23 on the road on Christmas Eve. Note that San Fran is still just 21st in the league in scoring offense by averaging only 19.8 PPG, while ranked 26th in scoring defense by conceding 24.7 per contest. Jimmy Garoppolo has been fantastic in the early going, but note that the 49ers were actually out gained 472-369 in last week’s big 44-33 win at home over the Jaguars. LA ranks first in scoring with 30.9 PPG, while ranked eighth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.7. Goaltender Jared Goff has a 28/7 TD/INT. Last week the Rams held a decisive 402-366 advantage in total offense in their victory over the Titans. One player to keep your eyes on today is LA RB Todd Gurley II, who has 1,305 yards rushing and 13 TD’s, as well as 788 receiving yards and six more major scores. Additionally I’ll point out that San Francisco is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while LA is 4-0 ATS in its last four following an ATS loss. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-31-17 | Bears +13.5 v. Vikings | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 120 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). Chicago enters its final game of the year having won two of its last three, most recently downing the Browns 20-3 at home on X-Mas Eve. Minnesota comes in having won ten of its last 11, most recently a 16-0 victory on the road against Green Bay. Note that Chicago plays with revenge after falling 20-17 at home to Vikes back on October 9th. Lets face it, the Bears are pretty terrible. Terrible offensively that is, averaging just 16.9 PPG. Rookie QB Mitchell Trubisky has been kept under a tight leash all year though, but he has shown flashes of extreme potential at times. Chicago’s defense has been pretty good this season. Last week the unit forced three turnovers, two of which came in the red zone. In all the Bears allows just 19.8 PPG, ranked tenth. Minnesota averages 23.9 PPG, while allowing only 16.1. The Vikes will clinch a first round bye with a win today, or a Carolina loss. I think it’s interesting to note though that the Vikes got the win in Green Bay last week despite being out gained 239-236. Chicago has played better of late and it would love nothing more than to play spoiler here. Note that the Bears are 6-5 ATS as an underdog this season. Minnesota has been unbelievable up to this point, but in my opinion all signs point to a bit of a letdown in its regular season finale. While I’ll stop short in actually calling for the outright upset, everything definitely points to a much tighter affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Boise State v. UNLV -6 | 83-74 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 10 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on UNLV (11:00 EST). Both teams enters at 11-2 on the season. Boise State allows just 65 PPG, while UNLV averages 91.2 PPG. Boise State enters off a 93-71 win over Colorado State. Chandler Hutchinson led the way with 24 points, as the Broncos would go 12 of 28 from range. The Rebels though have four players that average over 12.8 PPG, led by Brandon McCoy with 18.9 points, plus 10.9 boards. Additionally I’ll point out that Boise State has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 following a SU win, while UNLV is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 90 points or more in its previous contest and 9-3 ATS in its last 12 at home. The Runnin’ Rebels of UNLV won’t be lacking for motivation tonight as they kick off their conference schedule in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Loyola Marymount +4 v. Pacific | Top | 82-88 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Loyola Marymount (10:00 EST). Loyola Marymount comes in off a humbling 87-59 loss to St. Mary’s. LMU is a bad team, but fortunately for the Lions they’re facing another terrible school. One bright spot in Loyola Marymount’s latest setback was the play of Eli Scott, who came off the bench to finish with 13 points, five assists, two boards and a steal. Pacific has lost five straight, most recently an 81-48 setback to Gonzaga. The Tigers were just 19 of 57 from the floor, also missing nine of 12 from range. Pacific looked completely inept, as not a single player would go on to finish with double digits. I’ll point out as well that LMU is 5-2 ATS in its last seven road games against a team with a losing home record and 10-4-2 ATS in its last 16 following an ATS loss, while Pacific is interestingly just 7-17 ATS in its last 24 home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. Loyola Marymount has more talent and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by the outright upset of course, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | 76ers +7.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 107-102 | Win | 100 | 28 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG SUPER-SHOCKER is on the Philadelphia 76ers (9:05 EST). Philadelphia will be desperate here as it comes in having lost six of its last seven. Here’s a great opponent to get untracked against, as I believe Denver has another letdown after its three game win streak was snapped in a tough OT loss to Minnesota in its latest action. Joel Embiid had 29 points in his team’s 114-110 loss at Portland. The 76ers had an 18 point lead mid-way through the third quarter, but they then completely fell apart in the fourth. Embiid won’t be playing in tonight, but I still believe this one favors the hungry visiting side. The Nuggets looked decent during their three-game win streak, but they came unravelled in their latest action. Denver has four different players that score in double digits, but I’ll point out that the Nuggets are just 3-5 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more and only 5-8 ATS in non-conference games. The 76ers on the other hand are 10-8 ATS in non-conference contests this season and 3-1 ATS after playing three consecutive road games. With a four day layoff after tonight’s game, I think the home side gets caught “looking ahead.” Philadelphia though can take nothing for granted, with another game in Phoenix tomorrow night. In a contest which I envision being decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m going to grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL +7 | Top | 34-24 | Loss | -115 | 443 h 21 m | Show |
This is a 10* BOWL GAME OF THE YEAR on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators. Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game. Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG. That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes. The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.” The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia. Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game: “Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’ Unlike Richt’s team, Wisconsin clearly can’t be happy to be here after the perfect regular season record and then losing in such tragic fashion. An outright upset isn’t out of the question. A “TD” spread isn’t that large. But that said, in a tightly contested affair which I envision being decided late or in extra time even, I’m going to recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Hurricanes. Good luck…Larry |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL OVER 45 | Top | 34-24 | Win | 100 | 86 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* BOWL TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Wisconsin/Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 12-1 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the 10-2 Miami Hurricanes in the Orange Bowl at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami on December 30th and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gators. Miami comes into this one having lost two straight, most recently to Clemson in the ACC title game. Wisconsin also comes in off a loss, it’s only of the season with a setback to Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship. The Badgers have the No. 1 defense in total yards allowed per game, allowing 253, while ranked third in conceding just 13.2 PPG. That defense though looked pretty medicore in the 27-21 Big Ten Championship Game loss to the Buckeyes. The loss dropped the team from the College Football Playoff: “It’s an honor and a privilege to be here,” Badgers’ head coach Paul Chryst said earlier in the week. “I’m really thankful for our team and what they’ve done to give us the opportunity to play in this game.… It’s an iconic bowl game.” The Hurricanes were upset by Pittsburgh 24-14 on Thanksgiving and fell flat in the ACC Championship game against Clemson 38-3. In the two games previous to that though Miami posted 41 points in wins over Notre Dame and Virginia. Unlike their counterpart today, the Hurricanes have had more time to process the upset/shock from losing. I think that despite the longer lay off, the Badgers come in still hung up on their monumental setback in the Big Ten Championship game: “Now that we’ve lost two in a row we don’t want to feel that way again,’’ Richt noted. “One of the most fun things in college football is the celebration with the team after a great victory. And one of the hardest things is being able to look everybody in the eye when it’s over and realize we couldn’t get it done. But the one thing about our team is we’ve done it all together. We’ve got great staff unity. We’ve got great player unity. And there’s a great trust factor with everybody. They did an awesome job of putting things into perspective. And now it’s time to turn the page and get after a really good team.’’ So here are two teams that had big aspirations half way through the season, but which fell flat down the stretch. It’s extremely rare that I’d have such a big play on both the side and total of the same game, but that’s the way it’s worked out this year (my biggest Bowl side play of the season also comes in this contest.) I’ll point out that Wisconsin has seen the total go over the number in two of three non-conference games this year and in three of four this season when the total in the contest is set between 42.5 and 49 points, while Miami Florida has seen the total fly above the posted number in two of its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. I expect these two hungry teams to combine for just enough offense to push this total over the number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-17 | Clippers v. Lakers +3.5 | Top | 121-106 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). The 14-19 Clippers get ready to battle the 11-22 Lakers on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Lakers. The Clippers enter off a satisfying 122-95 win over the Kings on Friday, while the Lakers come in off a 109-99 setback at hime to Memphis. Note that this is a double revenge scenario for the Lakers as well, with the Clippers taking both earlier meetings, 108-92 and 115-112. The Clippers have been playing better, learning how to win without Blake Griffin in the line-up, but he could very well return tonight. I think that’s going to throw a monkey-wrench into the overall timing/chemistry that the Clippers have found of late without Griffin in the line-up. DeAndre Jordan has picked up the slack in Griffin’s absence, so far leading the NBA with an average of 15.2 RPG. So far the Clippers average 105 PPG and concede 106. The Lakers average 106.3 PPG and concede 109.8. Brandon Ingram led the way in the team’s latest setback with 23 points. I’ll point out though that the Clippers are just 1-3 ATS already this year after scoring 115 points or more in their previous contest, while the Lakers are 12-9 ATS this season trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think the Lakers are the much “hungrier” overall team here and I look for them to at the very least, keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points, play on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-17 | Utah +9 v. Oregon | Top | 66-56 | Win | 100 | 32 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Utah (10:00 EST). This is the opener of the Pac 12 schedule for each team and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a very competitive battle. Utah enters at 8-3, while Oregon is 10-3. Utah averages 77.5 PPG and concedes 67.9 Oregon averages 85.3 points and concedes 70.8. The Utes come in having alternated wins/losses over their last five, but do enter off a convincing 84-62 victory over Northwestern State on Wednesday. David Collette leads the team with 13.5 PPG, but five players in total average in double digits. The Ducks lost a bunch of the core players from last year’s Final Four team, but so far they’ve lived up to expectations. Payton Pritchard leads the team with 16.3 points, 4.6 assists and 1.3 steals per game. Collette is out for the Utes in this one, but as mentioned off the top, this is a Utah line-up which features a ton of depth. Also note that the Utes have in fact excelled in this spot for bettors by going 20-15 ATS in their last 35 after scoring 80 points or more in their previous contest. Conversely, this has been a position in which the Ducks have struggled in, going just 3-4 ATS already this year after scoring 80 points or more and a poor 1-4 ATS against schools with winning records. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but everything points to a nail-biting battle in my opinion. Grab the points, play on Utah. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-17 | USC v. Ohio State OVER 64.5 | Top | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* COTTON BOWL TOTAL Situational Stunner is on the over USC/Ohio State (8:30 EST). USC closed its regular season with a 31-28 win over Stanford in the Big 12 Championship, while Ohio State knocked off Wisconsin 27-21 in the Big Ten title contest. The Trojans average 34.5 PPG and concede 26.3. USC held a 501-343 advantage over Stanford in the championship victory. QB Sam Darnold has 3,787 passing yards and a 27/12 TD/INT. RB Ronald Jones leads the way on the ground with 1,486 yards and 18 TD’s. The Buckeyes average 42.5 PPG and concede just 19.9. Ohio State held a 449-298 advantage in total offense against Wisconsin. QB JT Barrett has 2,939 yards and a 35/9 TD/INT ratio. He also has 732 rushing yards, plus ten more scores. I’ll point out that USC has seen the total go over the number in five of seven this year against teams with winning records, while Ohio State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six this season in the same position. I believe these competent starting QB’s will be the main story line’s in tomorrow’s summaries. Play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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12-29-17 | Islanders v. Jets -138 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Winnipeg Jets (8:00 EST). The 20-13-4 New York Islanders are in Winnipeg to take on the 21-11-6 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Note that Winnipeg plays with revenge here after falling 5-2 in Long Island last weekend. New York got the better of Buffalo 3-2 in OT on Wednesday. The Isles rank among the league leaders in all offensive categories, but they’ve gotten inconsistent goaltending from Jaroslav Halak. Winnipeg enters off a 4-3 win over Edmonton. Note that the Jets are 21-7 in their last 28 home games and 21-6 in their last 27 home games against clubs with losing road records. Winnipeg goaltender Connor Hellebuyck is 19-4-5 on the season. I’ll also point out that the Islanders are a poor 1-4 in their last five following a victory. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion as I believe the Isles stumble in this non-conference Western road swing opener. Play on the Jets. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Flames v. Sharks -140 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the San Jose Sharks (10:30 EST). The 18-15-3 Calgary Flames are in San Jose to take on the 19-11-4 Sharks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Calgary comes in off a 3-2 home loss to the Habs, while San Jose enters off a 2-0 win over the Kings. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Sharks have to be liking their chances today, because when these teams met earlier in the season, it was San Jose that skated away with the 3-2 win. The Flames are just 4-4-2 in their last ten games and have averaged just 2.8 GPG this year, ranking them 21st overall. Goaltender Mike Smith has been a bright spot, posing a 14-12-2, 2.58 GAA record thus far. San Jose averages 2.8 GPG as well, and it concedes just 2.40, ranked second overall. Goaltender Martin Jones is 12-8-3 with a 2.51 GAA. I’ll point out that Calgary is just 1-4 in its last five road games against a team with a winning home record, while San Jose is 4-0 in its last four home games against a team with a winning road record. The Flames’ offense has been horrible of late, averaging just 2.3 GPG over its last ten, which clearly doesn’t bode well going up against San Jose’s elite defense. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot higher. Lay the price, play on the Sharks. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State v. Washington State | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 36 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Holiday Bowl Oddsmaker’s Error is on Michigan State (9:00 EST). Michigan State won its final two games of the regular season and I expect that momentum to get carried over here. Washington State went just 3-3 down the stretch. All three losses come on the road, which doesn’t bode well obviously in this neutral site affair. Note that the Cougars were destroyed 41-14 in the Apple Cup against Washington. WSU QB Luke Falk was a stand out all year, finishing with 3,593 yards and a 30/13 TD/INT. MSU has held opponents to under 300 yards on average defensively. QB Brian Lewerke finished with a 17/6 TD/INT. Note that he also had 490 yards rushing and five more major scores on the ground. One other player to keep your eyes on today is Trojans WR Felton Davis III, who had 658 yards and eight TD’s this season. I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 2-1 ATS in non-conference games this year, while Washington State is just 1-2 ATS in the same position. I think Michigan State is the more complete team and I expect this depth and overall skill to prove to be too much for Falk and the WSU offense to overcome. Play on Michigan State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Stanford +3 v. TCU | 37-39 | Win | 100 | 36 h 34 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Stanford (9:00 EST). The Cardinal went 9-4 and lost to USC 31-28 in the Pac-12 Title game. The Horned Frogs were 10-3 and lost to Oklahoma 41-17 in the Big 12 Championship. Stanford averages 32.0 PPG and concedes just 21.5. QB KJ Costello had 192 yards and two TD’s in the loss to USC. RB Bryce Love had 125 yards and a TD in that one. Note that Love is a finalist for the Heisman Trophy this year after rushing for 1,973 yards and 17 TD’s. TCU averages 33.2 PPG and concedes 17.6. The Horned Frogs also struggled offensively in their title game, posting just 317 total yards off offense against a poor Sooners’ defense. QB Kenny Hill was a bright spot with 234 yards, two TD’s and an INT. I think it’s interesting to note though that Stanford is 5-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records, while TCU is just 2-4 ATS in the same position. I think Love puts his stamp on this game and carries his team to the promised land. That said, in the end I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Stanford. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Wolves +2.5 v. Bucks | Top | 96-102 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:00 EST). The Wolves took care of business in a tight 128-125 win at home over the Nuggets last night and I look for the team to carry that momentum over here. The Bucks have lost two straight, most recently a 115-106 setback at home to the surging Chicago Bulls. Now that Minnesota sits in first in the Northwest, the Wolves will be looking to protect their lead. So far Minnesota averages 108.4 PPG and concedes 106.3. Big man Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.5 points and 11.6 boards per game, while Andrew Wiggins adds 17.5 points, plus four boards per contest. Milwaukee averages 105.2 PPG and concedes 105.8. Giannis Antetokounmpo averages 29.5 points, 10.4 boards, 4.6 assists, 1.4 blocks and 1.8 steals per game. Malcolm Bledsoe has chipped in 13.1 points per contest. I’ll point out though that Minnesota is 10-6 ATS on the road this year, while Milwaukee is just 6-8 ATS at home (also only 7-9 ATS as a favorite, while the Wolves are 5-3 ATS this season as the underdog.) The Wolves have been playing/travelling a lot, but I think this young core comes in focused on the task at hand and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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12-28-17 | Bradley -1 v. Drake | Top | 64-66 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Bradley (8:00 EST). The 10-3 Bradley Braves get ready to battle the 6-7 Drake Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Braves. Bradley had won three in a row before falling to Ole Miss 82-59 in its most recent action. Darrell Brown was a bright spot with 16 points, three boards and five assists. The Bulldogs come in off a win, routing lowly Maryland E. Shore 81-57. Reed Timmer led the way with 21 points, five boards and six assists. The Braves have done well in this spot for bettors and I expect these strong trends to continue here, note that they’re already 3-0 ATS against teams with losing records this season, 6-1 ATS when playing the role of favorite and 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing with five or six days rest. Conversely, this is a spot in which Drakes has struggled in, going just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a home dog of three points or less or pick and only 6-8 ATS in its last 14 after scoring 80 points or more in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, play on Bradley. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-17 | Golden Knights v. Ducks -117 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -117 | 30 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:05 EST). Anaheim enters off a 4-0 road win over Pittsburgh. Rickard Rakell had two points, while goaltender John Gibson posted the shutout. Keep your eyes on Rakell, he now leads the team with 24 points, including ten goals. The difference maker today for me though is Ducks’ netminder Gibson, who is just 11-11-4 on the year, but who owns an elite .922 save percentage and 2.77 GAA. Vegas is 15-2-1 at home this season, but just 8-7-1 on the road. The Golden Knights have been great, but clearly their weakness is their performance away from friendly confines. Vegas looks primed for a letdown here too in my opinion after knocking off the Capitals at home in their latest action. I’ll point out as well that Vegas is just 1-2 in its last three when playing on two or more days rest, while the Ducks are 4-0 in their last four when playing on three or more days rest. For all the reasons listed above, play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-17 | Purdue +3.5 v. Arizona | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 37 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Purdue (8:30 EST). Arizona comes into the Foster Farms Bowl off two straight regular season losses to end the campaign. Purdue on the other hand won three of its last four to earn bowl qualification and suffice it to say, I expect the Boilermakers to carry that momentum over into this one. Purdue won’t be intimidated here, as it has some big wins under its belt already this season, including against Iowa, who had just blown out Ohio State the week prior. And in their regular season finale the Boilermakers found a way to get past Indiana 31-24. Arizona averages 41.8 PPG, but it doesn’t play a lick of defense, allowing an average of 467 YPG. In fact, over their last four games the Wildcats have given up an average of 42 points or more. Arizona QB Khalil Tate is a standout, although he’ll be nursing an injured shoulder in this one. Additionally I’ll point out that Purdue is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS in the same position. I think an outright upset is very possible, but in the end I’ll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. Play on the Boilermakers. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-17 | Wizards v. Hawks +5.5 | Top | 99-113 | Win | 100 | 27 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). Washington looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning its second straight, a 111-103 road win in Boston on Christmas Day. Atlanta on the other hand snapped a two game losing streak with a 112-107 win at home over the Mavericks. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Hawks would be an understatement, as Washington has won four straight in the series, including a 113-94 victory in the first meeting this year back in mid November. Washington averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 103.6. Guard John Wall averages 18.6 points and 8.8 assists per game. The Hawks average 103.8 PPG and concede 108.7. Dennis Schroder leads the nightly charge with 19.8 points, plus 6.7 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Washington has really struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 2-5 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and only 7-11 ATS against teams with losing records, while Atlanta is already 2-0 ATS this year after playing with three or more days rest and 6-4 ATS following a non-conference game. I think the Wiz leave the back door open just enough for the hungry Hawks to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-27-17 | Villanova v. DePaul +15 | Top | 103-85 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on DePaul (7:30 EST). The 12-0 Villanova Wildcats get ready to battle the 7-5 DePaul Blue Demons on Wednesday night and while I’m not calling for an outright victory, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up here. Villanova enters off a 95-71 win over Hofstra in its latest action, while DePaul comes in off an 83-66 home victory over Miami Ohio. Note that this is a revenge game for the Blue Demons, who dropped both games to the Wildcats last year, falling 68-65 and 75-62. Villanova averages 86.5 PPG and concedes just 64.2. Guard Mikal Bridges averages 17.3 points plus 5.8 boards per game. DePaul has in fact won six of seven. The Blue Demons average 74.1 points and concede 67.8. Max Strus leads the team in scoring and he had 21 points in their most recent victory. I’ll point out though that Villanova is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road fav in the 15.5 to 18 points range, while DePaul is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home dog of 15.5 points or more and already 5-2 ATS this season against teams with winning records. Clearly Villanova is the better team. That said, DePaul won’t simply be rolling over here. The Blue Demons were competitive in both losses last year and I expect another spirited affair this evening as well. As stated off the top, no upset here, but look for a much closer than expected battle and grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-17 | Raptors v. Mavs +5.5 | Top | 93-98 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Mavericks (7:05 EST). The Raptors look primed for a letdown here in my opinion after winning six straight, most recently sweeping a home and home set against the 76ers. The Mavs enter having lost two straight, most recently a 112-107 setback on the road in Atlanta on Saturday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well, as Toronto has won four straight and seven of nine, including both match ups last year. Toronto averages 111.3 PPG and concedes just 102.4. DeMar DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 24.9 points and 4.9 assists per game, while big man Jonas Valanciunas averages 10.6 points and 7.7 boards per outing. Dallas averages 100 PPG and concedes 103.2. Harrison Barnes leads the team with 18.7 points and 6.8 boards per game, while Dennis Smith Jr. adds 13.8 points and 4.2 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Toronto is still just 20-21 ATS in its last 41 after allowing 90 points of less in its previous outing, while Dallas is 12-8 ATS this year against teams with winning records. With a game tomorrow night in OKC, I think the visitors get caught looking ahead and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Mavericks. Good luck…Larry |
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12-26-17 | Utah -7 v. West Virginia | Top | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 358 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* 34-Club Play is on Utah (1:30 EST). It’s the Big 12 against the Pac 12 in the Zaxby’s Heart of Dallas Bowl on Tuesday. The Utes beat Colorado 34-13 in their regular season finale, while WVU was smashed 59-31 at No. 4 Oklahoma in its final regular season outing. Utah went gang-busters out of the gate this year with a 4-0 start, but then dropped six of eight before then closing with the win over Colorado to become bowl eligible. The Utes are ranked 45th in the country in passing offense with 255.3 YPG, while ranked 58th in scoring offense with 29.4 PPG. Defensively the team excels, ranked 40th by conceding just 23.1 PPG. QB Tyler Huntley has 2,246 yards, 15 TD’s and ten INT’s, while the ground game is lead by Zack Moss, who has 1,023 rushing yards plus nine major scores. WVU averages 324.2 YPG through the air and it’s ranked 19th in scoring with 36.3 PPG. The defense though is sub-par, ranked 92nd in conceding 31.6 PPG. QB Will Grier has 3,490 passing yards, 34 TD’s and 12 INT’s. RB Justin Crawford has 1,061 yards on the ground and seven TD’s. I’ll point out though that Utah is 6-2 ATS as a favorite this year, while WVU is just 1-3 ATS when playing the role of underdog. Grier is expected to be healed for this one from hand surgery, but one has to wonder if he’ll be at 100% capacity? I think that Utah’s top notch defense turns out to the difference maker once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Wolves -3.5 v. Lakers | Top | 121-104 | Win | 100 | 52 h 50 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (10:35 EST). The Wolves come in with considerable momentum, having won three straight, most recently a 115-106 road victory over Phoenix on Saturday. The Lakers enter off back-to-back losses, most recently a listless 95-92 setback at home to Portland on Saturday. Minnesota averages 108 PPG and concedes 106.3. Karl-Anthony Towns averages 20.5 points, plus 11.7 boards per game. Jimmy Butler had 32 points in the Wolves most recent victory. LA averages 106.6 PPG and concedes 109.4. Big man Brook Lopez averages 12.8 points plus 4.3 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Minnesota is 5-1 ATS in its last six on the road, while LA is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after allowing 95 points or less in its previous contest. These two teams are moving in opposite directions right now. The Wolves have won their first two games of this three game trip and now have a two game lead in the Northwest. I like Minnesota to finish up its road trip strong and to take advantage of the scuffling Lakers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Raiders v. Eagles UNDER 47.5 | Top | 10-19 | Win | 100 | 50 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Raiders/Eagles (8:30 EST). The 6-8 Oakland Raiders are in Philadelphia to take on the 12-2 Eagles and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Oakland enters off a season-ending 20-17 loss to Dallas on Sunday and has nothing left to play for at this point (the Raiders aren’t fully eliminated, but for all intents and purposes they are, the odds are massively working against them, needing luck and plenty of outside help to get in.) The Eagles on the other hand won their first game without QB Carson Wentz under center in last week’s 34-29 shootout with the Giants. But with home field now sewn up for the remainder, I think the Eagles take the foot off the gas this week as they look to “manage” this one and dictate the flow from the “get go.” Raiders’ QB Derek Carr had 171 yards and two TD’s last week, while RB Marshawn Lynch had 76 yards on 18 carries. The Raiders average just 326.8 YPG (ranked 19th), while conceding 349.3 (ranked 21st.) Eagles’ QB Nick Foles had 237 yards and four TD’s in his first start of the year last week. The Eagles struggled defensively against a determined Eli Manning, but I think the secondary will catch a break this weekend against what I believe will be a completely disinterested Giants side. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in four of six on the road already this season, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight this year already after two or more consecutive SU victories. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Rockets v. Thunder +4 | 107-112 | Win | 100 | 49 h 20 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The 25-6 Houston Rockets are at Oklahoma City to take on the 18-15 Thunder and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Rockets come into this one on the heels of a two game slide, giving up 122 and 128 points to the Lakers and Clippers respectively. One has to wonder here how much gas Houston star James Harden left in him after back-to-back 51 point performances? Houston’s defense looked terrible in the loss to the Clippers and that doesn’t bode well in facing this rejuvenated Thunder team in my opinion. OKC has won four straight and ten of its last 13 and quietly comes in as arguably the hottest team in the NBA right now. Do it all All Star Russell Westbrook had 27 points, ten boards and ten assists in the Thunder’s most recent win over the Jazz. Paul George also had a huge game in that one, finishing with 27 points, ten boards and ten assists. But perhaps most impressively was the Thunder’s defense, which limited Utah to just 89 points (note that it was the third time in OKC’s last four games that it’s held an opponent to under 100 points.) These two teams are suddenly moving in opposite directions and I expect those trends to continue on Christmas night. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-25-17 | Wizards v. Celtics -5 | 111-103 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Celtics (5:35 EST). The 18-15 Washington Wizards are in Boston on Christmas Day to take on the 27-9 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Washington has won four of its last six, but looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after it’s lop-sided 130-103 win over Orlando on Saturday. Mike Scott led the way in that one with 17 points off the bench, while Bradley Beal added 17 points. The C’s have won three of their last five, most recently smashing Chicago 117-92 on Saturday. Team leader Kyrie Irving led the way with 25 points and seven assists in that one. I’ll point out though that the home teams is 13-3 ATS in its last 16 in this series, while Washington is 0-9 ATS in its last nine visits overall to Boston. Boston has been near impossible to beat at home, winning 14 of 18 so far and on Christmas Day on the national stage in prime time, I look for the Celtics to play a complete four quarters. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State +2.5 | Top | 27-33 | Win | 100 | 317 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Fresno State (8:30 EST). The AAC squares off against the MWC in the Hawaii Bowl this year, as Houston and Fresno State battle it out at Aloha Stadium in Honolulu. The Cougars enter off a 24-14 home win over Navy to finish the regular season at 7-4, while the Bulldogs come in off a 17-14 loss to Boise State in the Mountain West title game. Houston’s strength is on the the offensive side, ranked 67th in scoring at 28.4 PPG. Defensively the team has struggled at times, ranked 39th in the nation in conceding 23 PPG. In the win over Navy, QB D’Eriq King was 21 of 27 for 277 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Fresno State averages 26.8 PPG, while on the defensive it concedes just 17.2 PPG (ranked ninth.) While the Bulldogs lost in the title game to the Broncos, the week before in their season finale they beat Boise State 28-17. In the loss last week Fresno State gave up just 364 yard to the Broncos, including only 109 on the ground. QB Marcus McMaryion has been solid overall this year despite struggling last week, with 2,384 yards, 14 TD’s and just four INT’s. I’ll point out as well that Houston is 0-6 ATS in its last six on field turf, while Fresno State is 13-3-1 ATS in its last 17 on field turf. Houston only gets the slight nod offensively here. However, these defenses are no comparison. I think the Bulldogs’ World class defense turns out to the difference maker in this year’s Hawaii Bowl. Play on Fresno State. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Seahawks +5 v. Cowboys | Top | 21-12 | Win | 100 | 122 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:35 EST). Dallas has won three straight, but I think it’s ripe for a letdown here. Seattle isn’t out of the playoff picture either, but it comes in hungry off a humbling loss at home at the hands of the Rams. In last week’s 42-7 loss to LA, QB Russell Wilson was 14 of 30 for 142 yards and one TD in garbage time. Note the week before the Hawks’ scored a big victory over Philadelphia and the team still seemed focused on that victory. Dallas held on for a 20-17 win over Oakland on SNF last week. The Cowboys finished with just 330 total yards and were only 2-of-10 on third down. QB Dak Prescott had 212 yards passing and two INT’s. I’ll point out that Seattle is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five on the road and 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Dallas is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against teams with a winning record. I believe this one will be decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last and as such, I’ll recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Jaguars v. 49ers +4.5 | 33-44 | Win | 100 | 122 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 16 Las Vegas Insider is on the SF 49ers at 4:05 ET. Jacksonville comes in off a 45-7 win over Houston to clinch its division and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a predictable letdown here. The 49ers won’t be playing in the postseason, but they’ve quietly been dominating with three straight wins and I expect that momentum to get carried over here in this late season non-conference matchup. The Jags posted 464 yards, while holding the Texans to just 186 total yards last week. Note though that Jacksonville was just 3-for-10 on third down. QB Blake Bortles was strong with 326 yards and three TD’s. San Francisco is 3-0 with Jimmy Garoppolo under center. Last week Garoppolo was 36 for 38 and so far he has been responsible for 127 points posted by himself for his new team. I’ll point out as well that Jacksonville is just 2-9 ATS in its last 11 non-conference games (including just 1-2 ATS this season), while San Francisco is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog. It’s a classic letdown/trap spot for the Jags and I look for the home side to take advantage. Grab the points, play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 119 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Tennessee Titans (1:00 EST). The 10-4 LA Rams are in Tennessee to take on the 8-6 Titans and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. LA is on the cusp of clinching the NFC West after last week’s 42-7 win over the Seahawks, while Tennessee fell 25-23 at San Francisco last Sunday. Rams’ QB Jared Goff was 14 of 21 for 120 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Todd Gurley had 152 rushing yards on 21 carries, to go along with three major scores. Perhaps what was even more impressive than the offense, was LA’s defense. which limited Seattle to just 11 first downs and 149 total yards. Tennessee though will be desperate here after letting a late lead slip away in last week’s loss to the lowly 49ers. QB Marcus Mariota was 23 of 33 for 241 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. RB DeMarco Murray had 59 yards. The Titans gave up 414 total yards last week, but I think they’ll bounce back with a much better effort here. Tennessee will need some luck to win the division, but it won’t be rolling over and quitting and still needs to secure a Wild card. Note that the Rams are just 1-3 ATS in their last four after holding their previous opponent to a TD or less, while Tennessee is 7-4 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. I think LA takes the foot off the gas here and as mentioned off the top, I look for the hungry Titans to step up and take advantage. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-24-17 | Bucs v. Panthers -10 | 19-22 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 38 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Carolina Panthers (1:00 EST). The 4-10 Tampa Bay Buccaneers are in Carolina to take on the 10-4 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bucs come in off a crushing 24-21 loss to Atlanta on Monday night, a setback which officially ends their playoff hopes. Carolina enters off a 31-24 home win over Green Bay last week. When these teams met in Week 8, it was Carolina that scored the relatively simple 17-3 victory. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton had 154 yards and a TD in that one, while Bucs’ QB Jameis Winston had 210 passing yards, no TD’s and two INT’s. Tampa owns the league’s worst pass defense, which clearly doesn’t bode well against Newton and company. The Panthers have also been tough overall defensively, allowing just 307.9 YPG, ranked fifth in the league. Additionally I’ll point out that Tampa is just 1-6-1 ATS in its last eight on the road, while Carolina is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd. Carolina has averaged 32 points over its last five games and I anticipate it having no issues at all moving the ball today against this dejected Bucs defense. Lay the points with confidence, play on Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | Southern Miss +13 v. Mississippi State | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONFERENCE GAME OF THE MONTH is on Southern Miss. While I’m going to stop short in calling for an outright victory, I do think that the Golden Eagles come to play tonight after their humbling 98-45 loss to FSU last time out. Southern Miss is led by Cortez Griffin with 16.6 PPG. The Golden Eagles played poorly in the loss to the Seminoles, turning the ball over 20 times. Southern Mississippi’s weakness comes on the defensive side of the ball, but the Golden Eagles do catch a bit of a break in that department today going up against a Bulldogs team that gets the job done most nights with its smothering defensive play. Opponents are shooting just 42.7 percent from the floor against Mississippi State, which ranks 21st in the country. Quinndary Weatherspoon leads the way with 14.5 points, 4.5 assists and 1.6 steals per game. I’ll point out though that Southern Miss is 10-3 ATS in its last 13 after allowing 80 points or more and 15-8 ATS in its last 23 after scoring 60 points or less, while Mississippi State is just 2-4 ATS as a favorite this season and only 1-2 ATS after allowing 60 points or less (also just 2-5 ATS in non-conference games.) As mentioned off the top, I’m not expecting the outright upset, but all signs point to a much closer affair than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | 76ers +10.5 v. Raptors | Top | 86-102 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-CONF GAME OF MONTH is on the Philadelphia 76ers (5:05 EST). Toronto is a pretty good team. But I don’t think it’s a “great team.” It’s hard to beat a team three times in the same season. The 76ers play with double revenge here, having dropped both earlier meetings against the Raptors this year, including a 114-109 setback in Philadelphia on Thursday. In that game the 76ers had a 20 points lead early in the third quarter. DeMar DeRozan though had different ideas for the visiting Raptors, as he helped his team claw back for the victory with a career high 45 points. Philadelphia averages 108.6 PPG and concedes 109.4. Rookie phenom Ben Simmons averages 17.3 points, nine boards, 7.8 assists and two steals per game. Toronto averages 111.6 PPG and concedes 103. DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 24.7 points, plus 5.7 assists per game. As mentioned off the top though, it’s very difficult even for great teams to beat a poor team three times in one season. Clearly the 76ers can’t “look past” Toronto to their Christmas Day matchup with the Knicks as they come in having lost four straight and eight of their last ten. Could the Raptors get caught looking ahead to their Christmas break? Very possible of course. Toronto has won nine of ten, including five straight and two straight on the road. With a game in Dallas on Boxing Day, I do believe that the Raptors will finally have a letdown here against this extremely desperate 76ers side. Whether big man Joel Embiid plays or not for Philadelphia, I like the visitors to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 98 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Colts/Ravens (4:30 EST). The 3-11 Indianapolis Colts get ready to battle the 8-6 Baltimore Ravens on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Colts fell to Denver 25-13 last weekend. Indianapolis got more bad news that injured QB Andrew Luck, who has missed every game so far with injury, may also now need biceps surgery soon. Baltimore bounced back from a tough loss against the Steelers to beat the Browns 27-10 on the road last Sunday. The Ravens are still in the hunt for the wild card berth and won’t want to leave anything to chance today. Indy QB Jacoby Brissett had 158 yards passing and 18 yards rushing with a TD in last week’s loss. So far Brissett sports a weak 11/7 TD/INT. RB Frank Gore had 31 yards on ten carries. The Colts average just 16.1 PPG, ranked 31st in the league, while conceding 26.3 (also ranked 31st.) Baltimore averages just 303.6 YPG, but makes up for it on the defensive side by conceding just 324.7 (ranked tenth.) Last week QB Joe Flacco had 288 yards a TD. Baltimore was on fop form defensively last week, holding Cleveland to just 236 total yards while also forcing four turnovers. I’ll point out as well that Indianapolis has already seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 as an underdog this year and in seven of ten against conference opponents, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last eight off a win against a division rival. With nothing left to play for, I think the Colts simply go through the motions today. The Ravens are on just six days rest and won’t want to turn this onto a “track meet.” This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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12-23-17 | Long Beach State +6.5 v. Colorado State | 66-68 | Win | 100 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
My 9* Situational Stunner is on Long Beach State (4:00 EST). The 5-9 LBSU 49ers get ready to battle the 6-6 Colorado State Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the 49ers. LBSU has dropped two straight to Eastern Michigan and Michigan State, while Colorado State has won two straight over Texas State and Arkansas-Fort Smith. The 49ers average 75.5 PPG. Gabe Levin had 22 points and eight boards in the 85-80 loss to Eastern Michigan, and then 14 points and five boards in the 102-60 loss to the Spartans. The Rams returned three players with considerable starting experience from last years squad. Prentiss Nixon averages 18.1 PPG so far this year. I’ll point out though that LBSU is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 6.5 to nine points range and already 3-1 ATS this year when playing with one or less days rest, while Colorado State is 1-2 ATS as a favorite this season and just 2-6 ATS in all non-conference games. I think the 49ers are the much hungrier team here. Grab as many points as you can, play on LBSU. Good luck…Larry |
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