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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-11-17 | Fresno State v. Hawaii +9.5 | 31-21 | Loss | -108 | 82 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Hawaii (11:00 EST). The 6-3 Fresno State Bulldogs are in Hawaii to take on the 3-6 Rainbow Warriors. I’m not going to call for an outright victory, but I do think that the hungry home side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Bulldogs looked pretty bad in their win over a horrible BYU team last week. QB Marcus McMaryion was 14 of 20 for 174 yards and no TD’s. RB Jordan Mims had 54 yards and two TD’s. Fresno State’s strength has been on the defensive side of the ball, holding teams to an average of 18 PPG. With the win though, the Bulldogs have become bowl eligible and suffice it to say, i think they’re primed for a letdown here. The Warriors have lost two straight, most recently a hard-fought 31-23 setback to UNLV. QB Dru Brown was 24 of 47 for 269 yards and a TD. RB Diccemy Saint Juste had 111 yards rushing and a TD on 20 carries. I’ll point out though that Fresno State is already 1-2 ATS this year against teams with losing records and only 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite, while Hawaii is 2-1 ATS in its last three after allowing 30 points or more in its previous contest. I like the Warriors to play for pride today and to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Play on Hawaii. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Jets -123 v. Coyotes | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Winnipeg Jets (10:05 EST). The 8-3-3-0 Winnipeg Jets are in Arizona to takeon the 2-13-2-1 Coyotes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Winnipeg enters off a game against the Vegas Golden Knights on Friday, but has gotten solid play both on the road and at home this seaosn. Coming into Friday the team ranks 10th in scoring with 3.29 GPG, while ranked 11th on the defensive side in conceding just 2.86. The Coyotes return home off a dismal 0-1-2 road trip, ending with a disheartening 3-2 shootout loss to the Blues on Thursday. Arizona goaltender Antti Raanta is 1-3-2 with a 2.87 GAA this year. Jets’ backup Steve Mason is expected to get the start here and he’s sruggled so far this season. He’s also had his hands full with the Coyotes in the past. For arguments sake, I’m going to call the goaltenders a wash. However, Winnipeg’s vastly superior offense is the difference maker here for me. All things considered a great price, play on Winnipeg. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Kings +5 v. Knicks | Top | 91-118 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Sacramento Kings (8:05 EST). The Kings come in with a ton of momentum as they’ve won two in a row, most recently a 109-108 upset victory at home over the 76ers. The Knicks on the other hand look primed for a letdown here. New York had won three straight and six of seven before losing their final game of their road trip, 112-99 in Orlando on Wednesday. The first game back from an extended trip often can be considered a “trap” for a team and I believe that will in fact be the case here today. Also note, not only is this is a “letdown” spot, but it’s also a “look ahead” spot as well for the Knicks, who have the Cavs coming to town on Monday night. The Kings have looked a lot better on both ends of the floor of late, but the team still ranks just 29th in scoring with 95.2. Sacramento has been better on the defensive end, ranked 11th by conceding 104.2. Zach Randolph leads the team with 13.6 PPG. But the Kings get the job done by committee, with Buddy Hield, Willie Cauley-Stein, George Hill and Vince Carter. New York averages 105.4 PPG and concedes 106.3 Kristaps Porzingis averages 30 points, 7.5 boards and 2.3 blocks per night. But as mentioned off the top, I love Sacramento to keep the momentum rolling and to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire against a distracted Knicks side. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Cleveland State v. Akron -7.5 | 57-67 | Win | 100 | 24 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Akron (7:00 EST). This is the opener of the NE Ohio Coaches vs. Cancer Classic. Cleveland State returns three starter sand eight letter winners from a team that went a horrible 9-22 last year. In all the Vikings welcome seven newcomvers. Not only does Cleveland State have a lot of new faces on the bench, it also has a new face in head coach Dennis Felton. But the Zips will be felling confident here, as they’ve taken three straight in this series, including a 65-53 win in the 2015/16 season opener. Also note that Akron is 21-12 all time against CSU in front of the home town crowd. And that doesn’t bode well in my opinion for Felton’s new team, which comes in having dropped three straight season openers. Additionally I’ll point out that Cleveland State is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight against the MAC and only 6-15 ATS in its last 21 non-conference games, while Akron is 5-2 ATS in its last seven non-conference contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on Akron. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Washington State -1 v. Utah | 33-25 | Win | 100 | 77 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Washington State (5:30 EST). The 8-2 Washington State Cougars are in Utah to take on the 5-4 Utes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. The Cougars got back on track with a 24-21 upset win at home over then No. 21 Stanford last weekend after it had dropped two of three coming in. The Utes snapped a four-game slide with a 48-17 win over UCLA last Friday night. WSU is ranked second in the country with an average of 381.7 passing YPG. Overall the Cougars are tied for 33rd in averaing 33 PPG. Defensively the teams ranks 39th by conceding just 22.7. Washington State QB Luke Falk has 2,913 yards, 26 TD’s and one INT this season. In last week’s win the Cougars held a dominant 430-198 advantage in total offense. Utah averages 255.3 passing yards per game and is ranked 58th overall in total offense by putting up 29.4 PPG. The defense has also been decent, conceding 23.1 per contest. QB Tyler Huntley has 1,648 passing yards, 12 TD’s and six INT’s on the season. RB Zack Moss leads the way on the ground with 740 yards and three major scores. I’ll point out though that WSU is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while the Utes are just 1-4 ATS in their last five home games against teams with a winning road record. The Cougars’ are the more complete team over all three phases and I also give a big nod to Falk over Huntley at the QB position as well. Play on Washington State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Iowa v. Wisconsin -11.5 | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 75 h 50 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on Wisconsin (3:30 EST). The 6-2 Iowa Hawkeyes are in Wisconsin to take on the 9-0 Badgers on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the still unbeaten home side. Iowa earned its sixth win of the year in an epic 55-24 win over then No. 3 Ohio State last weekend to become bowl eligible. I had the Hawkeyes in that one. But that was then and this is now. Iowa definitely looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion. The Hawkeyes picked off JT Barrett four times, including one that was returned for a TD by Amani Hooker on the first offensive play of the game. QB Nathan Stanley was 20 of 31 for 226 yards and five TD’s. Wisconsin was down 10-0 early against Indiana last week, but then poured it on in the second half for another convincing victory. RB Jonathan Taylor had 183 yards and a TD. QB Alex Hornibrook was 13 of 20 for 158 yards, two TD’s and an INT. As good as the Badgers have looked offensively of late, it’s been their defense which has gotten the job done all year, ranking fifth in the country in yards allowed per game with 267.8. Additionally I’ll point out that Iowa is 0-4 ATS in its last four following an ATS win and just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games, while Wisconsin is interestingly 5-0-1 ATS in its last six games played in the month of November. The Badgers are on a mission. The Hawkeyes are contented and eligible. Should be a beatdown from start to finish, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +15.5 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 41 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Michigan State (12:00 EST). The 7-2 Michigan State Spartans are in Ohio State to take on the 7-2 Buckeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Michigan State looks to keep the momentum rolling after its 27-24 home win over Penn State, while Ohio State is reeling after its humbling 55-24 beatdown loss to Iowa State last Saturday. Note that when these teams played last year, it was Ohio State that notched the 17-16 victory. I’m not suggesting that you sprinkle any on the money line, but I do definitely feel that the surging and revenge minded Spartans will keep this one competitive until the final moments. Michigan State looked impressive defensively last week, holding Penn State to 466 total yards, while also collecting three INT’s. QB Brian Lewerke was 33 of 56 for 400 yards, two TD’s and an INT. So far he has 2,207 yards passing and a 16/5 TD/INT ratio. WR Felton Davis III had 181 receiving yards and a TD. Ohio State QB JT Barrett was 18 of 34 for 208 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s in last week’s shocking upset loss. The Buckeyes looked horrible defensively, allowing 487 total yards. I’ll point out as well that Michigan State is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game, while Ohio State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six home games following an ATS loss and only 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with winning records. The Spartans have proven that they can play with the best teams in the country, while the pressure is clearly getting to Barrett and company. Grab as many points as you can, play on Michigan State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-11-17 | NC State -3 v. Boston College | Top | 17-14 | Push | 0 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina State (12:00 EST). The 6-3 NC State Wolfpack are in Boston College to take on the 5-4 Eagles and in my opinion, this one favors the visitors. I think BC is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins over Louisville, Virginia and Florida State. NC State will look to get back on track now after its 38-31 loss at home to No. 4 Clemson last week. Boston College’s momentum and chemistry will be disrupted because of the team’s “bye week” as well in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that this is a revenge game for NC State after BC won the game 21-14 on the road last year. NC State had a 21-17 halftime lead against Clemson, but the Wolfpack was unable to sustain its momentum for a full four quarters. QB Ryan Finley threw for 339 yards against a tough Tigers’ defense. On the year Finley has 15 TD’s and just three INT’s. WR Kelvin Harmon had eight catches for 155 yards in the loss. The Wolfpack rank 30th in overall offense by averaging 447.3 YPG, while ranked 57th on the defensive side in conceding 387.2. Boston College is ranked 96th in total offense with 370.1 YPG, while ranked 76th in conceding 397.9. QB Anthony Brown was just 6 of 20 for 54 yards and a TD in the win over FSU back on October 27th. In all the Eagles’ held FSU to just 213 total yards while forcing three turnovers. Note though that as good as BC is defensively, it still struggles mightily against the run in allowing an average of 206.2 YPG. I’ll point out as well that NC State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a SU loss, while BC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after three or more consecutive ATS covers. BC’s strength on offense is its run game, which doesn’t bode well facing the Wolfpack’s 31st ranked run defense. I like NC State to continue its road success (has already beaten FSU and Pittsburgh on the road.) Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Bucks +4.5 v. Spurs | Top | 94-87 | Win | 100 | 26 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Milwaukee Bucks (9:05 EST). The 4-6 Milwaukee Bucks are in San Antonio to take on the 7-4 Spurs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry visitors. This the final game of an extended road trip for the Bucks and they come in having lost four straight, most recently a 124-119 setback to Cleveland on Tuesday. The Spurs enter on the other end of the spectrum, having won three in a row, most recently a 120-107 win over the Clippers on Tuesday. It’s interesting to note that these two teams split a pair of games last year, each winning on the others floor. Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee with 40 points, nine rebounds and four blocks in the loss to the Cavs. So far the Bucks average 105.4 PPG and concede 108.7. Note that the newly acquired Eric Bledsoe is supposed to suit up for Milwaukee tonight (and if he doesn’t, I still love this play as I think this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side.) The Spurs still only average 101.7 PPG, while conceding 100.6. So far big man LaMarcus Aldrige has filled the void left by still injured superstar Kawhi Leonard by averaging 22.6 points plus 8.3 boards per game. Aldridge had 25 in the Spurs latest victory. I’ll point out though that Milwaukee is 13-9 ATS in its last 22 after three or more consecutive SU losses, while San Antonio is just 37-43 ATS in its last 80 after three or more consecutive SU victories. I like the desperate Bucks to at the very least, take this one down to the wire for the comfortable ATS cover. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Iowa State +5 v. Missouri | 59-74 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Iowa State (9:00 EST). Missouri was 8-24 last year, while Iowa State was 24-11, advancing to the second round of the NCAA Tournament. Both teams have new faces this season though. Iowa State is expected to take a step back this year, while Missouri is expected to take a step forward. Regardless of that, I still think that the Cyclones bring enough talent to the table to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Iowa State returns one starter and three players overall from last years team. Keep your eyes on Solomon Young, who averaged 4.4 points and 3.3 boards over 12 games last year. ISU also welcomes transfer Jeff Beverly from UTSA, who scored in double-digits 28 times for the Roadrunners last year. The Cyclones feature a strong backcourt in senior guard Donovan Jackson and freshman Lindell Wigginton. The Tigers return three players that averaged double figures last year. New coach Cuonzo Martin is hoping to revive a program which has fallen on hard times of late. Michel Porter Jr. and Jeremiah Tilmon lead a front court which is expected to be among the best in the SEC. Missouri has big expectations, but lacks chemistry and experience. The Cyclones are an entirely different team, but the system and pieces that do carry over will be more than enough to keep this one close unitl the final moments in my opinion. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Yale +8 v. Creighton | Top | 76-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Yale (9:00 EST). Both teams have high hopes this year after each lost in their respective conference championship games last season. Yale fell to Princeton in the Ivy League championship game. The Bulldogs are loaded with veteran experience this season though, led by now fully healthy guard Makai Mason, who was lost for the 2016/17 campaign with injury. Mason is surrounded by talent, including Jordan Bruner, Miye Oni and Blake Reynolds. Creighton lost to Villanova in the Big East Tournament title game. The Bluejays also lost point guard Maurice Watson Jr. to the NBA. Creighton ran an extremely fast paced offense last year, with just 15 seconds per offensive possession, but with Waston Jr. gone, I have a hard time seeing the Bluejays matching that speed. This is going to be a battle, but in the end I think the depth and overall experience that the Ivy League school brings to the table today will in the end keep this score a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Pepperdine v. Oklahoma State -18 | 47-78 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Oklahoma State (8:30 EST). The Pepperdine Waves were 9-22 last year, while the Oklahoma State Cowboys were 20-13. Brad Underwood left the coaching job at Oklahoma State, starting the Mike Boynton Jr. era for the Cowboys. The Cowboys return two starters and ten letter winners from a year ago, while the Waves return just one starter. Pepperdine once again has more questions than answers as the season gets underway. Most specifically is how will it fill the void left by star Lamond Murray, who averaged 21.4 PPG last year? The Waves had many players injured last season, including Kameron Edwards, who averaged 7.2 points and 4.2 boards in 2015/16. Edwards is back and so too is Amada Udenyi, who played in just six games last year after blowing his achilles. Jeffrey Carroll leads the Cowboys this year. Last season he averaged 17.5 points and 6.6 boards, while shooting 44.4 percent from range. Oklahoma State also had some talent to replace in the offseason, but it has some a plethora of it just waiting to fill the void. Keep your eyes on Brandon Averette and Cal State Northridge transfer Kendall Smith, who averaged 16.7 points and 4.8 assists last season. The Cowboys have more talent and are the much bigger overall team. I think Oklahoma State will wear down the Wave down the stretch and I look for it to pull away for the comfortable cover once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Temple v. Cincinnati +2.5 | Top | 35-24 | Loss | -100 | 107 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Cincinnati (7:00 EST). The 4-5 Temple Owls are in Cincinnati to take on the 3-6 Bearcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Bearcats will need to run the table to reach the six win plateau, but they kept the dream alive in last week’s 17-16 win over Tulane. Temple also enters off a victory over Navy, but I think it will have a letdown here. Last week Temple QB Frank Nutile was 22 of 30 for 289 yards, four TD’s and a pick. WR Adonis Jennings had 127 yards and two TD’s (was just the first time this season that he’s reached over 100 yards though.) Bearcats RB Mike Boone had just 20 yards on six carries last week, but he also had the go-ahead TD. Gerrid Doaks was also a standout with 149 yards rushing on 17 carries. I’ll point out as well that Temple is just 1-3 ATS In its last four as a road fav of three points or less, while Cincinnati is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. I like the Bearcats at home here. Both teams face an uphill battle to reach six wins, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be discounted in this particular matchup. Play on Cincinnati. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Delaware +10 v. Richmond | 76-63 | Win | 100 | 24 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Delaware (7:00 EST). Delaware is coming off a 13-20 record from a year ago, while Richmond was 22-13 overall. The Blue Hens are expected to take a big step forward this season though as leading scorer Ryan Daly is back after posting 16 points and 7.4 boards last year. The team also returns its second leading scorer in Anthony Mosley, who averaged ten points and shot 47.9 percent from the floor. Richmond made it to the A-10 Tournament semifinals last year, but the team lost its top two scorers from that team. Third leading scorer Khwan Fore is back though and he averaged 11.2 PPG last season. Note though that Fore is injured right now and will be out for another month. Additionally I’ll point out that Richmond lost its top rebounder from a year ago as well. Ultimately I think the experienence and talent that the Blue Hens bring to the table today makes this game much more even than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-10-17 | Texas A&M v. West Virginia -6 | 88-65 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on West Virginia (6:00 EST). These teams meet on Friday at the Ramstein Air Force Base on ESPN and suffice it to say, I think this one favors the Mountaineers. Texas A&M won just 16 games overall last year. The Aggies though are expected to take a step forward this season with returning big man Tyler Davis, along with DJ Hogg and Robert Williams. I’ll point out though that the Aggies have lost three straight neutral site affairs. WVU has made the NCAA tournament three straight years and with Bob Huggins as coach, the players faces may change, but the system always remains the same. The Mountaineers are loaded with talent, including Esa Ahmad (who is suspended for the first half of the season) and Jevon Carter from last year’s team, while you’ll also want to keep your eyes out for rising star Sagaba Konate. I’ll point out that WVU has won five of its last seven neutral site affairs. The Aggies sport a ton of talent as well, but I think the Mountaineers’ relentless defensive play (a trademark of Huggins), proves to be too much for Texas A&M on Opening Night, half way around the World. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals OVER 41.5 | Top | 22-16 | Loss | -108 | 55 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Hawks/Cards (8:25 EST). The 5-3 Seattle Seahawks are in Arizona to take on the 4-4 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. The Seahawks beat the Texans 41-38 two weeks ago, but then came out flat in last weekend’s 17-14 loss at home to Washington. Clearly the 5-3 Hawks will be looking to atone for that shoddy offensive peformance. Arizona lost starting QB Carson Palmer to injury, but Drew Stanton came in and directed his team to a 20-10 road win in San Francisco last Sunday. The Seahawks secondary was exposed by the Texans without Earl Thomas in the line-up and while it looked better last weekend, I think it will have its hands full with Stanton, who finished with 201 yards, two TD’s and an INT in the victory over the 49ers. Arizona though looked horrible defensively, allowing 294 passing yards to CJ Beathard. And that doesn’t bode well for the Cards today facing Russell Wilson, who had 297 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s last weekend. Overall though Seattle ranks fourth in total offense with 378.6 YPG. Seattle’s defense is also expected to be tested by the Cards’ rejuvenated run game, with Adrian Peterson leading the way. The veteran back was dominant last week, finishing with 159 rushing yards. I’ll point out that Seattle has seen the total go over the number in interestingly six of its last eight in Weeks 10 through 13, while Arizona has seen the total soar above the posted number in two of its last three as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I think these two desperate division rivals open up the playbook and I look for this total to indeed eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-17 | Cavs v. Rockets UNDER 228 | Top | 113-117 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Cavaliers/Rockets (8:05 EST). The 5-6 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Houston to take on the 8-3 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below this sky-high number. It would be easy to just assume this will be a high-scoring game. The Cavs’ struggles to start the year are well known. They average 109.9 PPG, while allowing 113.9. Cleveland most recently comes in off a 124-119 home win over the Bucks. Houston has won three straight and it most recently destroyed Utah 137-110 on Sunday. The Rockets average 109.9 PPG and allow just 103.9. Clearly that’s a vast defensive improvement from a season ago. This is an important road trip for the Cavs, as a losing streak on the West Coast would put the team in a pretty big hole. If Cleveland has any hopes of turning its season around, it’s going to have to commit to the defensive end of the floor. That’s something that Houston has alrready done this year and I expect that improved defensive play to get carried over here. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has interestingly seen the total go under the number in 12 of its last 21 against the Southwest division, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 13 of its last 20 against the Central. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-09-17 | Georgia Southern v. Appalachian State -17.5 | Top | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 83 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Appalachian State (7:30 EST). The 0-8 Georgia Southern Eagles are limping towards the finish line, while the 5-4 Appalachian State Mountaineers are on the cusp of eligiblity. The Eagles most recently fell 21-17 at home to Georgia State on Saturday. The Mountaineers though won’t want to leave anything to chance today after dropping two straight, as they’ll look to lay the hammer down from start to finish. Appalachian State most recently lost a 52-45 shootout against Louisiana Monroe on the road last weekend. And if recent history is any precedence, then Appalachian State has to be liking it chances today because when these team’s played last year, it was the Mountaineers which came away with the convincing 34-10 victory. Georgia Southern is terrible, ranked 122nd in the country in scoring with just 17.6 PPG, while ranked 124th on the defensive end by conceding 38.4. QB Shai Werts has 650 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s this year. Wesley Fields leads the way on the ground with 494 yards and three carries. Appalachian State averages 31.3 PPG and allows 25.9. QB Taylor Lamb has 2,096 yards, with 19 TD’s and just four INT’s this season (also has 366 rushing yards and three more major scores.) I’ll point out that Georgia Southern is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 100 yards rushing in its previous game, while Appalachian State is interestingly 3-1 ATS in its last four “Thursday night” games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mountaineers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-17 | Lightning v. Sharks -112 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -112 | 29 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Jose Sharks (10:35 EST). The 11-4 Tampa Bay Lightning are in San Jose to take on the 8-5 Sharks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Both teams enter off victories, with the Lightning winning 5-4 in a shootout at home over Columbus, while the Sharks won 3-1 at home in a shotout over the Ducks in their latest action. Tampa averages 3.87 GPG and concedes 2.83. Goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is 11-2 with a 2.52 GAA on the year for the Bolts. The Sharks average 2.69 GPG and concede 2.31. Goaltender Martin Jones stopped 25 of 26 shots in his team’s latest victory to move to 7-3 with a 1.98 GAA on the year. I’ll point out that Tampa is just 26-63 in its last 89 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600, while San Jose is 10-4 in its last 14 against the Eastern Conference. As good as Vasilevskly has been this year, he’s still just 3-6 with a 2.77 GA lifetime against the Pacific. Jones is 2-0 with a 1.50 GAA lifetime against the Lightning. I look for Jones to continues his hot play and I like the Sharks to do just enough offensively to eek out the vicotry here. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-17 | Heat v. Suns OVER 213 | Top | 126-115 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Heat/Suns (9:05 EST). The 4-6 Miami Heat are in Phoenix to take on the 4-7 Suns. Both teams have had to deal with plenty of on and off court drama to open the year and clearly neither can be happy with their overall record at this point. With these two hungry teams dealing with injuries and new faces, while also trying to navigate shaky starts to the 2017/18 campaign, I’m expecting each to push the pace of this one from start to finish and I look for this total to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. So far the Heat average just 101.2 PPG while conceding 103.9. James Johnson had 21 points, nine boards, six assists and three steals off the bench in a losing cause at Golden State last time out. But Miami is loaded with veteran talent, including Goran Dragic and Dion Waiters. The Suns finally dealt Eric Bledsoe and got big man Greg Monroe in exchange from the Bucks. Phoenix enters off a loss against the Nets in which TJ Warren had 20 points and nine rebounds. Phoenix averages 104.8 PPG and concedes 114.8. I’ll point out that Miami has seen the total go over the number in 16 of its last 26 after playing to three or more consecutive unders, while Phoenix has seen the total go over the number in four of five already this year against clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-08-17 | Kent State v. Western Michigan -21.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 59 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Western Michigan (7:00 EST). The 2-7 Kent State Golden Flashes are in Western Michigan to take on the 5-4 bowl hopeful Broncos on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. The Flashes come in off a 44-16 home loss to Bowling Green, while WMU fell flat in a 35-28 home loss to Central Michigan last weekend. Kent State’ QB George Gollas was just 16 of 35 for 140 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s last week. Leading rusher Justin Rankin posted just 39 yards on four carries. The defense was once again a weak point, surrendering 401 total yards, including 227 on the ground. WMU’ QB Reece Goddard was just six of 18 for 42 yards and one INT last week. QB Jon Wassink was injured, so Goddard was pressed into duty. With that awkward game behind him though, I think Goddard will be a lot better this weekend. Goddard will once again be leaning heavily on senior RB Jarvion Franklin, who had 228 yards along with two TD’s in the losing cause. The Broncos’ defense catches a break this week though facing the impotent Kent State offense. I’ll point out as well that Kent State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six road games against a team with a winning home record, while WMU is 10-4 ATS in its last 14 following an ATS loss. The favorite is 10-1 ATS in the last 11 in this series and I look for all of these strong trends to continue as the Broncos take advantage of this favorable matchup and punch their ticket to a bowl berth. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-17 | 76ers v. Jazz -7 | 104-97 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Utah Jazz (9:05 EST). Utah is coming off a humbling 137-110 loss in Houston, a game in which James Harden exploded for 56 points. Nothing that the normally steady Jazz can’t bounce back from though. Especially at home. The 76ers have won four in a row, including a 121-110 victory over the Pacers in their latest game. But with big man Joel Embiid expected to sit for rest purposes, I believe that Philadelphia will stumble in this tough road atmoshphere. JJ Redick was a stand out in the lastest victory with 31 points on 8 of 12 from range. Utah has actually lost two straight, also coming up short to the Raptors prevoius to the Rockets setback. Center Rudy Gobert looks to bounce back as well after just 13 points and five boards in that one. I think it’s interesting to note though that Philadelphia is just 8-13 ATS in its last 21 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while utah is already 5-1 ATS at home this season and 20-12 ATS in its last 32 after a loss by ten points or more. Expect a return to the norm on the defensive side of the ball for the Jazz on their home floor tonight and look for the 76ers to struggle without Embiid in the line-up. Lay the points, play on Utah. Good luck….Larry |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo -11 | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Buffalo (7:30 EST). The 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons are in Buffalo to take on the 3-6 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Bowling Green comes in off a 44-16 win over lowly Kent State for just its second win of the year last week and looks primed for an immediate letdown here. QB Jarret Doege was 14 of 18 for 178 yards and two TD’s in the victory. Note though that it was the first time that the Green Falcons had allowed under 20 points. The Bulls have three games left to get to six wins and will need to sweep the board. While that’s likely out of the question, they can only take it one game at a time and first up is Bowling Green. Buffalo could easily have a much better record at this point as well, as its lost by a combined 15 points during its current four game slide, including a tough 21-20 setback at Akron in its latest. QB Tyree Jackson had 313 yards, but failed to find the end zone in that one. I’ll point out though that Bowling Green is just 1-6 ATS this year as an underdog and only 3-5 ATS in its last eight as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range, while Buffalo is 3-1 ATS at home already this year and 3-1 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records. The Green Falcons have given up an average of 35.4 points per game this year, which doesn’t bode well facing his hungry Bulls side in my opinion. For all the reasons listed above, play on Buffalo. Good luck…Larry |
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11-07-17 | Panthers v. Hurricanes -145 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 2 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Carolina Hurricanes (7:05 EST). The 4-7-1-1 Florida Panthers are in Carolina to take on the 4-5-2-1 Hurricanes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Florida has lost four straight, most recently a 5-4 OT setback to the Rangers on Saturday. Roberto Luongo let in five goals on 44 shots. So far Luongo is 1-2-1 with a 3.83 GAA. Florida averages 3.62 GPG, while allosing 4.23 (the worst in the league.) Carolina averages 2.58 GPG and allows 2.92. Cam Ward is 1-2-0 with a 3.39 GAA. The Hurricanes will be especially motivated here after a 2-1 shootout loss to lowly Arizona in their last outing. Note as well that Florida is a poor 24-28 (-7.9 units) in its last 52 after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest (including just 1-4, -3.7 units this year), while Carolina is 3-1 (+1.7 units) in its last four after scoring one goal or less and losing in a shootout in its previous contest. Carolina takes advantage of familiar surroundings and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on the Hurricanes. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-17 | Jets v. Stars -138 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -138 | 32 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* NHL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Dallas Stars (8:30 EST). The 7-3-3 Winnipeg Jets are in Dallas to take the 8-6 Stars and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Winnipeg comes in off a 5-4 OT loss to the Habs on Saturday, while Dallas enters off a big 5-1 win at home over Bufallo. Note that this is an immediate “revenge” game for the home side after it fell 5-2 in Winnipeg just last week. The Jets had their three game win streak snapped last time out and I think they’re going to have a letdown here as well. So far the Jets average 3.2 GPG. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck owns a 7-0-2 record with a 2.24 GAA. Dallas averages just 2.9 GPG, but it looked a lot better in the offensive explosion against the Sabres. Ben Bishop will get the nod for the visitors, so far he owns a solid 2.66 GAA and .913 save percentage over 11 games played. Also note that Dallas has been above average defensively overall this year conceding 2.8 GPG, ranked ninth in the league. Additionally I’ll point out that WInninpeg is interestingly just 1-4 in its last five after its opponent nets five or more goals in its previous contest, while Dallas is 4-1 in its last five when playing on one days rest. This is a great spot to pull the trigger on the revenge-minded and in my opinion, undervalued home side. Play on the Stars. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-17 | Lions -2 v. Packers | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 50 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* NFC NORTH GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Detroit Lions (8:30 EST). The 3-4 Detroit Lions are in Green Bay to take on the 4-3 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is a double revenge scenario for the Lions as well after the Packers took both games from them last season. That was of course with star QB Aaron Rodgers under center. But Rodgers is injured and lost for the year, meaning that Green Bay backup Brent Hundley has been forced into the spot light. Two weeks ago Hundley made his first start at home against the Saints and he looked horrible, going just 12 of 25 for 87 yards, no TD’s and a pick. RB Aaron Jones had 131 yards on 17 carries with a TD, but note that the Lions are seventh in the league against the run, allowing only 91.6 rushing yards per game. In last week’s loss to the Steelers, Lions’ QB Matt Stafford did everything but find the endzone unfortunately, finishing 27 of 45 for 423 yards. Admittedly the Lions’ run game is horrible, but Stafford catches a break this week in facing the Packers’ 16th ranked pass defense which gives up 223.1 YPG. Note as well that Detroit is 3-1 ATS in its last four Monday night games, while Green Bay is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU loss. Stafford isn’t the highest paid QB in the history of the NFL for nothing. If he can’t get the better of Hundley today, then there is something seriously wrong in Detroit. I’m banking on Stafford answering the call though and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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11-06-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +8.5 | Top | 110-107 | Win | 100 | 31 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* NBA GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:30 EST). The 8-2 Boston Celtics are in Atlanta to take on the 2-8 Hawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Both teams come in off victories, with the Celtics winning their eighth straight with a 104-88 win over Orlando, while the Hawks notched their second victory of the season with a huge 117-115 upset win over the Cavs in Cleveland yesterday afternoon. These teams average the same amount of points almost, with the C’s pouring in 102.8 per night, while the Hawks average 101.1. That’s where the similarities end though, as ATL is ranked 24th in scoring defense by conceding over 110 per game, while Boston is No. 1 on the defensive side by allowing just 93.8. Clearly the Celtics are the better team, but with a three-game home stand starting on Wednesday with the Lakers up first, I think this sets up as a classic “trap” for the visitors. Atlanta on the other hand can’t afford to bask in the glory of its big win over Cleveland last night after the terrible start to the year. Back-to-back upsets? Maybe. But in a contest which I foresee being decided late, I’m going to grab the points just in case. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Thunder v. Blazers +3 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 28 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Portland Trailblazers (9:05 EST). The 4-4 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Portland to take on the 5-4 Trailblazers on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. OKC comes in off a deflating 101-94 loss to the Celtics at home and I think that residual disappointment gets carried over here. The Thunder have looked great defensively, but the offense has yet to find its stride. The Blazers got back into the winners circle after a short two-game slide, holding on for a 113-110 victory over the Lakers on Thursday. And now I think Portland carries that momentum over here. Paul George had 25 points and ten boards, while Russell Wesbrook added 19 points, 11 assists and six boards in the Thunder’s crushing loss to Boston. Carmelo Anthony though was just 3 of 17 from the floor, finishing with ten points. Portland needed a a last second three-pointer to beat the upstart Lakers from Damian Lillard to seal the victory. Lillard would go on to finish with 32 points, going 14 of 14 from the charity stripe. In all the Blazers would hit 24 of 27 from the free throw line. I’ll point out as well that Oklahoma City is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Western Conference, while Portland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after allowing 110 points or more in its previous contest. With a more “winnable” game at Sacramento on deck, I think OKC gets caught looking ahead here as well. Play on Portland. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Raiders v. Dolphins UNDER 44 | Top | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 133 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LEGEND is on the under Raiders/Dolphins (8:30 EST). The 3-5 Oakland Raiders are in Miami to take on the 4-3 Dolphins and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has low-scoring, defensive battle written all over it. Oakland has lost five of its last six, while Miami’s three game win streak was snapped in a blowout loss to the Ravens in London last weekend. Wtih Marshawn Lynch re-instated, it’s safe to say that we’re going to see a heavy dose of the bruising back from the visitors today. Lynch missed last Sunday’s 34-14 loss to Buffalo. In all the Raiders gained just 54 yards on 14 carries against the Bills. Oakland QB Derek Carr is averaging just 228.9 passing yards per game and has 12 TD’s and six INT’s this season. The Dolphins are reeling as well. Miami gets the job done on the defensive side of the ball as it’s averaging just 13.1 PPG, including being just 30th in the NFL in passing and 31st in rushing. And now Miami’s offense will have to figure out what do without lead RB Jay Ajayi, who was just traded to the Eagles on Tuesday: “We’re the worst offense in football,” Dolphins’ head coach Adam Gase lamented after last week’s loss. “It’s hard to go lower than that…. I wouldn’t say I’m tempted to do anything. I’m going to play the guys that know what to do. The fan-base might not like it, but oh well…. I’m pissed. I’m tired of this. I’m tired of the offense being awful. Guys need to get their heads right. The coaching staff needs to do a better job because obviously our players not knowing is a direct reflection on them.” I’ll point out that the under is 6-2 in the Raiders’ last eight on the road, while the Fish have seen the total dip below the posted number in four of their last five following a SU loss. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Pacers v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | 101-108 | Win | 100 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
8* O/U PERFECT STORM on the under Pacers/Knicks (7:35 EST). The 5-4 Indiana Pacers are in New York to take on the 4-4 Knicks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will fall below the posted number once it’s all said and done. New York has won four of its last five. Indiana had won three in a row before a loss at Philadelphia on Friday. I think the Pacers will fall flat here after their 121-110 road loss to the 76ers, dropping them to just 2-3 away from friendly confines. Victor Oladipo was a bright spot with 31 points and so far he’s averaging 26 PPG. New York star Kristaps Porzingis had 37 points in his team’s 120-107 home win over the Suns, also adding seven boards, three blocks and a steal. Note that Enis Kanter has posted eight straight double-doubles. I’ll point out though that Indiana has seen the total go under the number in 20 of its last 35 after allowing 115 points or more this year (and in its only game this year in that situation), while New York has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 13 after playing to three or more consecutive “overs.” All things considered, I do indeed feel this number is just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Cardinals v. 49ers | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 129 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Cardinals (4:05 EST). The San Francisco 49ers traded a 2018 second-round draft pick for New England Patriots QB Jimmy Garoppolo on Monday night. However, Garoppolo is not expected to start Sunday against the Cardinals, as C.J. Beathard will remain starter for now. Brian Hoyer started the first six games for San Fran but was benched in favor of C.J. Beathard in the team's loss to Washington on Oct. 16. Beathard has started the past two games, going 39 of 74 for 402 yards with one TD and two interceptions. However, after losing five straight games by three points or less, the 49ers have lost 40-10 and 33-10 with Beathard starting. San Francisco is now a pathetic 1-22 SU last 23 (only win was 22-21 over Rams in Week 17 of 2016), falling to 0-8 to open the 2017 season, the first time that's happened in franchise history. Drew Stanton was the fifth QB drafted in 2007 (43rd overall pick) and the only one still on an NFL roster, See if you can find Jamarcus Russell, Brady Quinn, Kevin Kolb and John Beck these days on any NFL rosters? He came to Arizona in 2014 and will be making his 10th regular season start (6-3 first nine). Stanton has the raw arm and athleticism to put points on the board. Arizona has excelled in this spot for bettors as well, going 2-1 ATS in its last three off a loss against a conference rival and 11-3 ATS in its last 14 in all games where the line was set between +3 and -3. Conversely, the 49ers have really struggled in this position for bettors, going just 5-6 ATS in their last 11 games where the line in the contest is between +3 and -3 and only 10-14 ATS their last 24 after two or more consecutive SU losses. I’m banking on Stanton doing just enough to secure his team the victory here. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Redskins +7.5 v. Seahawks | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 128 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Washington Redskins (4:05 EST). The 3-4 Washington Redskins are in Seattle to take on the 5-2 Seahawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Washington will be hungry here after its 33-19 home loss to Dallas, while I think Seattle looks primed for a letdown after its thrilling, last-second 41-38 win over Houston at home last week. The Redskins so far average 22.9 PPG, while conceding 25.7. Clearly that’s not a recipie for success. Last week QB Kirk Cousins was 26 of 39 for 263 yards, a TD and an INT. Cousins has been solid so far with 1,900 yards, 13 TD’s and four INT’s this season. In fact, Cousins 103.3 QBR is third overall. The Hawks are averaging 25.0 PPG and conceding 18.9, ranked seventh. QB Russell Wilson was 26 of 41 for 452 yards, four TD’s and an INT last weekend. The run game was non-existent though, producing just 33 yards in the win over Houston. That’s not going to get the job done most weekends. I think Cousins and the desperate visiting side will have their opportunities today, just like the Texans did last week. I’ll also point out that the Redskins are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games and 7-3 ATS their last ten against teams with winning records, while Seattle is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a straight up victory. Ultimately I feel that Cousins will be able to keep his team competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Bengals +5.5 v. Jaguars | 7-23 | Loss | -111 | 125 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Cincinnati Bengals (1:00 EST). The 3-4 Cincinnati Bengals look to move back to .500 with a win in Jacksonville against the 4-3 Jaguars this afternoon. It wasn’t pretty, but the Bengals bounced back and edged Indianapolis 24-23 last week. Jacksonville has so far been better than advertised this season, but I think it’s going to show some signs of rust after its bye week, previous to that smashing the Colts 27-0 the last time it was on the field of play. Cincinnati gave up 331 yards, including 115 rushing last week. The Bengals’ defense has been a strength this year and I think it’s going to be a difference maker this afternoon as well. After a very slow start to the year, the Bengals have now won three of four. QB Andy Dalton started slowly as well and has since been getting into a groove, for the season he has an 11/8 TD/INT ratio. WR AJ Green has 572 receiving yards and four TD’s. Jacksonville QB Blake Bortles has been inconsistent from game-to-game this year as well and so far has 1,398 passing yards and a 9/5 TD/INT. The Jaguars have also been getting above average defensive play, holding Indianapolis to just 232 yards last week. Note that Jacksonville is particularly tough against the run, but does have issues against the pass. Which of course doesn’t bode well in facing Dalton in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 on the road, while Jacksonville is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 at home. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Bengals. Good luck…Larry |
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11-05-17 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 49 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 125 h 15 m | Show | |
My 9* SUPER TOTAL is the under Colts/Texans (1:00 EST). The 2-6 Indianapolis Colts are in Houston to take on the 3-4 Texans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Colts have lost three straight and have little to play for at this point. The Texans have alternated wins and losses all year, most recently coming in off a tough 41-38 setback to Houston With Indianapolis starting QB Andrew Luck out for the season, duties have fallen to backup Jacoby Brissett, who averages a paltry 184.4 yards per game and who has five TD’s and four INT’s. The Colts are clearly in rebuilding mode for next year already, where they plan to finally have a 100% healthy Luck under center. I think the Texans come in “flat-footed” here after last week’s crushing setback in Seattle. The team rallied after owner Bob McNair’s insensitive comments, but then still came up short with its effort. I believe that disappointment gets carried over into Houston’s performance here today. I’ll point out as well that the Colts have seen the total go under the number in interestingly, five of their last eight games played in the month of November, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four when playing the role of favorite. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” where field position will help in ultimately determining the final outcome, rather than a run-and-gun “shoot-out.” This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Penguins v. Canucks OVER 5.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 27 h 35 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Penguins/Canucks (10:05 EST). The Canucks won four in a row, but have since dropped two straight. The Pens can empathize, they’ve lost three of their last four, most recently falling to Calgary in OT. With both teams looking to break out of their respective “funks,” I’m expecting a fast-paced, wide-open “shootout” this evening. Pittsburgh is going to be especially motivated here, as the 2-1 OT setback in Calgary marked the fourth time in its last five road games in which it’s managed to net just one goal. I’ll point out though that the defending champs have seen the total go over the number in 11 of their last 16 after playing three consecutive road games, while the Canucks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 31 of their last 56 non-conference contests. With each team pushing the pace and desperate for a win, everything points to this one going over sooner rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL +2.5 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 145 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Miami Florida (8:00 EST). The 7-1 Virginia Tech Hokies are at Miami-Florida to take on the 7-0 Hurricanes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Hokies enter off a 24-3 win over Duke on Saturday, while Miami Florida nudged by UNC 24-19 on the road this past weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for the Hurricanes after they fell 37-16 on the road in VT last year. Hokies’ QB Josh Jackson has 2,032 yards with 17 TD’s and four picks this year. So far Virginia Tech averages 446.5 YPG of offense, while conceding just 284.5, ranked 9th. RB Deshaw McClease had 75 yards and a TD last week. Miami QB Malik Rosier wasn’t at his best last week, going 16 of 38 for 356 yards, three TD’s and one INT. The defense was adequate, holding a desperate UNC team to 428 total yards (note though that the Hurricanes did force four turnovers.) I’ll point out as well that Virginia Tech has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors for a while, going just 6-7 ATS in its last 13 on the road and only 4-6 ATS in its last ten as a road favorite, while Miami is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 at home and interestingly, 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November. I think the Hokies have a letdown here in this tough atmosphere against the revenge-minded Hurricanes. Play on Miami. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Mavs v. Wolves -13 | Top | 99-112 | Push | 0 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Minnesota Timberwolves (8:05 EST). The 1-9 Dallas Mavericks are in Minnesota to take on the 5-3 Timberwolves on Saturday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Dallas comes in off a listless 99-94 loss at home to New Orleans just last night. Minnesota is trending in the opposite direction, it won its third straight by beating the Pelicans 104-98 on the road Wednesay. The Wolves took two of three meetings between the teams last year, with the home side winning each time. So far the Mavs average just 98.2 points, while conceding 108.3. Harrison Barnes leads the way with 16.3 points and 6.1 boards per game. The Wolves average 108.8 PPG and allow 113.1. Andrew Wiggins averages 19.5 PPG, while Karl Anthony Towns puts in 21.4 points and 11 boards. With a game at home tomorrow night against Charlotte (before a big road trip, with a stop in Golden State to kick things off), I’m fully expecting Minnesota to push the pace of this one from the opening tip until the final horn. And a chance to pad their defensive stats against this tired and dejected Mavs team, I expect the Timberwolves to lay the hammer down and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Ohio State v. Iowa +17 | Top | 24-55 | Win | 100 | 140 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on Iowa (12:00 EST). The 7-1 Ohio State Buckeyes are in Iowa to take on the 5-3 Hawkeyes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Ohio State is coming off a thrilling come-from-behind win over former No. 2 Penn State last weekend and I think it is primed for a bit of a mental letdown here after that emotional victory. Iowa comes in off a 17-10 home win over Minnesota. The Hawkeyes are seeking their sixth win of the year and they also play with revenge here after falling 34-24 at Ohio State last season. Ohio State QB JT Barett had three TD’s in the fourth quarter to pull away for the 39-38 win over Penn State on Saturday. The Nittany Lions had a 28-10 lead in the second quarter. Barrett finished 33 of 39 for 326 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. So far the Buckeyes rank third in the nation on offense in posting 571.2 YPG, while the defense ranks 12th in conceding 302.5. Iowa is ranked 104th in the nation on offense with an average of 345.2 YPG, while ranked 48th on defense in conceding 370.1 YPG. Nathan Stanley was just 15 of 27 for 190 yards, one TD and one pick for the Hawkeyes last weekend, but it was the defense which was the difference maker, holding Minnesota to 281 total yards, including only 139 through the air. Stanley overall on the year though has been solid, with 1,698 passing yards with 17 TD’s and just four INT’s. Additionally I’ll point out that Ohio State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS loss, while Iowa is already 3-1 ATS this season in front of the home town crowd. Iowa needs one more win for a postseason invite and it comes in off a confidence building victory in which its defense completely domianted. The Hawkeyes also play with revenge this afternoon. The Buckeyes looked poised for a big letdown here though after their come from behind victory last week and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright win, I do definitely feel this is too many points to be giving up to this highly motivated Iowa side. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Northwestern v. Nebraska -1.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 140 h 18 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Nebraska (3:30 EST). 5-3 Northwestern is at 4-4 Nebraska on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. I base my selections on many different things and this one sets up great from a situational angle. I simply feel that Northwestern is poised for a letdown here after three straight wins, including two straight in OT (39-31 over MSU last time out.) And with a “cream puff” at home against 2-6 Purdue next weekend, the Wildcats still have chances to punch their much sought after sixth win of the season. Nebraska on the other hand is running out of chances, it most recently gutted out the 25-24 win at Purdue last weekend. The Wildcats have struggled in this spot for bettors as well, going just 1-3 ATS in their last four after scoring more than 37 points in an OT victory, while Nebraska has excelled in this spot, going 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 25 points or more in its previous game. From a situational stand point, this is as good as it gets in my opinion. Play on Nebraska. Good luck…Larry |
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11-04-17 | Syracuse v. Florida State -3.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 137 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on Florida State (12:20 EST). The 4-4 Syracuse Orange are at Florida State to take on the desperate 2-5 Seminoles, who must now “run the table” if they have any hopes at all at going “bowling” this year. The Seminoles are coming off a humbling 35-3 loss at Boston College, while Syracuse has been off since falling 27-19 to Miami Florida on October 21st. The Orange went to Miami off a massive 27-24 win over Clemson, but had a predictable letdown. Syracuse averages 455 yards per game, while allowing 367.9. QB Eric Dungey was just 13 of 41 for 137 yards and four INT’s in the loss to the ‘Canes. Dungey has been fantastic overall this year, but one has to wonder if he peaked too early. Seminoles’ QB James Blackman was just 11 of 26 for 102 yards and a pick last week. Overall FSU fumbled the ball twice. The offense is averaging just 335.6 YPG, but the defense remains one of the best in the nation, ranked 31st in yards allowed per game with 347.3 per contest, including 26th against the pass with 189.1 per game. Additionally I’ll point out that Syracuse is just 2-3 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records and 0-2 ATS the last two years following its bye week., while Florida State is 4-3 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival and interestingly, 7-1 ATS in its last eight games played in the month of November. I’m banking on Blackman having his best game of the year against this “flat footed” Orange defense and I think Dungey is going to be in for a shock against this talented and hungry Seminoles’ elite defensive unit. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-17 | Nets +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 112-124 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Brookly Nets (10:30 EST). The 3-5 Brooklyn Nets are in LA to take on the 3-5 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. The young Lakers come in off a hard-fought and disheartening 113-110 loss at Portland just last night and clearly they’re going to be “gassed” here. The Nets will look to take advantage. After starting 3-2, Brooklyn has lost three in a row. Brooklyn remains in the top ten in the league in scoring, but is now also once again one of the worst on the defensive side of the floor. D’Angelo Russell leads the nightly charge with 21.7 points, 5.7 assists and 4.1 boards per game. LA moved Russell to the Nets so that it could make room for Lonzo Ball, so expect the ex-Laker to go out and try and prove a point tonight. Additionally I’ll point out that the Nets have done extremely well against the Pacific for a long time now by going 41-18-2 ATS in their last 61 against the division, while LA has struggled in this spot for bettors by going just 3-7-1 ATS in its last 11 against the Atlantic. The situation favors the visitors, I like Brooklyn to pull away down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-17 | Bulls v. Magic -8 | 105-83 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Orlando Magic (7:05 EST). The 1-5 Chicago Bulls are in Orlando to take on the 6-2 Magic and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Chicago is reeling, it’s lost two straight, most recently a 97-91 setback on the road to Miami on Wednesday, while Orlando comes in on the other end of the spectrum, having won two straight and five of six, most recently a 101-99 effort over the Grizzlies on the road. This would usually set up as a bit of a letdown spot for Orlando, a team that’s overachieved on a road trip returns home and lays an egg in its first game. However, I don’t think that will be the case tonight so early in the season. Chicago ranks as the worst offense in the entire league with just 90 PPG. It’s been decent defesively, allowing only 101.2 PPG, but clearly this isn’t a recipie for success. Lauri Markkanen leads the team with 17.2 points plust 9.3 boards per game. The Magic are second in the league in scoring with 114.9 PPG, while ranked 18th on the defensive side in conceding 106.8. Evan Fournier leads a balanaced attack with 22 points per game, while high-flyer Aaron Gordon adds 20.7 points, plus 8.7 boards per game. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 1-5 ATS in its last six against clubs with winning straight up records, while Orlando is in fact 10-5 ATS in its last 15 after playing three consecutive road games. The Bulls will get Portis back next week, but until then I have a hard time seeing Chicago keeping pace with the surging Magic. Lay the points with confidence, play on Orlando. Good luck…Larry |
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11-03-17 | Marshall v. Florida Atlantic -10 | Top | 25-30 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* C-USA GAME OF THE YEAR is on Florida Atlantic (6:00 EST). The 6-2 Marshall Thundering Herd are at Florida Atlantic to take on the 5-3 Owls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Mashall enters off a 41-30 home loss to FIU, while FAU rolled to a 42-28 win over WKU on the road last weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for the Owls, who fell at Marshall 27-21 last season. Combined with the fact that FAU needs one more win to become bowl eligible, there’s no question in my mind that the more motivated side is the Owls. Marshall ranks 64th in the country in scoring with 28.4 PPG, while ranked 15th on the defensive side in conceding only 17.6. The defense looked horrible last weekend though, giving up 401 total yards. QB Chase Litton was 33 of 52 for three TD’s, but also had two INT’s (one which was returned for a TD.) FAU is ranked 15th in scoring with 39.5 PPG, while ranked 69th on the defensive side in conceding 26.8. RB Devin Singletary had 224 yards and four TD’s in last weekend’s big win. QB Jason Driskel hasn’t been asked to do much this season other than the manage the game and hand off the ball, but he does have 899 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s overall. Note that the Owls have now run for an average of 422.7 YPG over their last three outings. Additionally I’ll point out that Marshall has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 9-11 ATS in its last 20 against the conference and 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while FAU is 3-1 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins and 5-2 ATS in its last seven following a conference game. The Thundering Herd looks ripe for the picking here after last week’s “dud.” Besides, Marshall already has an invite to a bowl. Florida Atlantic on the other hand won’t want to leave anything to chance as it seeks its sixth win of the year. I like the Owls to continue their red hot play and to soundly avenge last year’s loss with a big effort in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-17 | Lakers v. Blazers -7 | Top | 110-113 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Portland Trailblazers (10:35 EST). The 3-4 LA Lakers are in Portland to take on the 4-4 Blazers. LA had lost two straight before smashing the Pistons 113-93 at home on Tuesday. Portland though comes in off consecutive losses, falling 99-85 to the Raptors on Monday, before dropping a hard-fought 112-103 OT loss in Utah last night. With a game at home tomorrow night against Brooklyn though, I think the young Lakers get caught “looking ahead” to that one. LA is averaging just 103.4 PPG, while allowing 106.6, while Portland is averaging 107.6 PPG and conceding just 98.3. The duo of Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum is a formidable one. The Lakers are filled with a ton of talent, but not a lot of experience. LA has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors as well, going just 5-13 ATS in its last 18 after a win by ten points or more, while Portland has excelled in this position by going 27-18 ATS in its last 45 against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest. After a stretch of poor play, I expect Portland to defend its home floor against the up-start Lakers. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 43 | Top | 21-34 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the under Bills/Jets (8:20 EST). The 5-2 Buffalo Bills are in New York to take on the 3-5 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Buffalo comes in off a convincing 34-14 win over Oakland on Sunday, while the Jets come off a difficult 25-20 loss at home to Atlanta. New York has lost three straight and is in bascially “must win” mode, while Buffalo could be caught a little complacent after all of its recent success and in facing its lowly opponent. Note that if recent history is any precedence, then we should absolutely expect a lower-scoring game tonight, because when these team’s played on September 10th this year, it was Buffalo that edged New York by a score of 21-12 at home. Bills’ QB Tyrod Taylor has been solid this year with 1.343 yards, eight TD’s and two INT’s. LeSean McCoy has 763 yards and three TD’s on the year. Taylor had 165 yards and a TD against the Raiders throwing and also rushed in another TD, while McCoy finished with 151 yards on 27 carries with a score as well. Note that Buffalo has been solid defensively this year, especially against the run, allowing only 80.1 YPG. Jets’ QB Josh McCown was 26 of 33 for 257 yards, two TD’s and no picks last weekend. McCown has been a big reason why New York has been so competitive this year, going for 12 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far. The run game was held to just 43 yards on 22 carries last week, which doesn’t bode well for the unit in facing the Bills’ elite rush defense. The under is 5-1 in the last six in this series and for good reason. Suspect QB play forces each to focus on the run first. For New York that’s been an issue this year, but McCown will be predictable today in a one dimensional offense. This is a few too many points in my opinion, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-17 | Canadiens v. Wild -134 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Wild (8:05 EST). The 4-7-1 Montreal Canadiens are in Minnesota to take on the 4-4-2 Wild and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Montreal comes in off wins over the Rangers and Sens and looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion. Conversely, the Wild just had their two game win skein snapped with a loss to Winnipeg on Tuesday. Clearly the Habs weren’t as bad as their early struggles indicated. That said, after two straight victories, everything points to a letdown spot for Montreal, as note that it’s a poor 22-39 (-23.2 units) in its last 61 non-conference games, including 0-5 (-5.8 units) this year. The Wild on the other hand are 4-2 (+2 units) in their last six after playing three consecutive home games. Additionally I’ll point out that Montreal is just 1-5 in its last six on the road, while Minnesota is 11-4 in its last 15 home games against teams with a road winning percentage under .400. Minnesota is tied for the fewest goals allowed in the Central and I think the Habs are going to find it difficult to muster much of an offensive attack this evening. All things considered, I feel this is a great price. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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11-02-17 | Ball State +22.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Ball State (7:00 EST). The 2-6 Ball State Cardinals will need to win out to reach the six win plateau. Clearly that’s not going to happen, but the visitors will be playing with pride today after getting crushed over the last four games, most recently falling 58-17 to Toledo. EMU isn’t much better, as it’s also winless in conference play. It’s true that the Eagles’ last six losses have come by a TD or less, but it still doesn’t take away from the fact that this is a bad team. The Cardinals once again looked brutal on the defensive side of the ball last weekend, but the good news was that the offense put up its most points in four games, highlighted by 204 yards on the ground. EMU had a 14 point lead last week and still managed to fall in OT. The Eagles are devastated by that setback and I think will be “hung over” to open this game, leaving the back door open just enough for the the Cardinals to sneak in through down the stretch. I’ll point out that Ball State is still 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road, while EMU is just 6-9 ATS in its last 15 at home (and only 2-6 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records.) For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -150 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST). Tonight will be the first Game 7 between two 100-win clubs since the St. Louis Cardinals defeated the Philadelphia Athletics in 1931. The LA Dodgers are looking to secure their seventh World Series title all time, while the Astros are hoping to earn their first in franchise history (Houston's only other World Series appearance occurred in 2005 when it was swept by the Chicago White Sox). The visitors turn to Lance McCullers Jr, who got the start in Game 3, giving up three runs off four hits over 5.1 innings in the victory. So far McCullers has conceded just six runs over 18.1 innings of work in the playoffs, resulting in a 1.04 WHIP and a 2.95 ERA. Houston was 0 for 6 with runners in scoring position in Game 6 and note that it’s now 2-6 in eight playoff road contests. LA counters with Yu Darvish, who was shaky in Game 3 of the World Series, giving up four runs off six hits and lasting just 1.2 innings. Over 13 innings of playoff work the Japanese hurler has given up six runs, which equates to a 4.15 ERA and 1.23 WHIP. Darvish has experience facing the Astros while with the Rangers, going 14-14 with a 3.44 ERA lifetime against them. Keep your eyes on LA slugger Chris Taylor, who had a RBI double in Game 6 and who has posted four hits with two RBI’s in the last three games. Home teams are 27-10 (.730) in the 2017 postseason, with the Astros going 8-1 at Minute Maid Park and the Dodgers going 6-1 at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers moved to LA back in 1958 and have won five World Series titles, in 1959, 1963, 1965, 1981 and 1988. However, the only time the Dodgers have actually clinched a World Series title in Los Angeles or Dodger Stadium was 1963. Make that TWO times, after tonight. Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-17 | Flyers v. Blackhawks -133 | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Chicago Blackhawks (8:05 EST). The Philadelphia Flyers are in Chicago to take on the Blackhawks on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the hungry home side. Chicago has lost five of six, while the Flyers fell 4-3 in OT at Arizona on Monday. So far the Flyers rank eighth in scoring with 3.42 GPG, while ranked 13th on the defensive end in condeding 2.92. The Hawks average 3.17 GPG and concede 2.83. In Chicago’s lastest two losses, it’s actually outshot its competition 86-58. The bounces haven’t gone the Hawks way yet this year, but I think that changes tonight. As note that the Flyers are just 9-24 in their last 33 on the road and just 1-4 in their last five against the Western Conference, while Chicago is 5-2 in its last seven against the Eastern Conference. I’ll also point out that the home side has won eight of the last nine in this series. I’m banking on the hungry Hawks taking advantage of familiar surroundings and to find a way to get back into the winners circle once it’s all said and done. Play on the Blackhawks. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan +7 v. Western Michigan | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 74 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Central Michigan (8:00 EST). The 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas are at Western Michigan to take on the 5-3 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. CMU has been off since October 21st when it annihilated Ball State 56-9, while WMU also last played on the 21st, holding on for a 20-17 road win over EMU in OT. Note that this is a revenge game for the Chips after they fell 49-10 at home to the Broncos last year. So far the Chips average 391.1 yards of offense per contest, while allowing 387.6. In the victory over the Cardinals QB Shane Morris was 16 of 21 for 199 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. RB Jon Ward had 97 yards and two major scores as well. The Broncos have won four straight, but took a major blow in last week’s win when starting QB Jon Wassink left with a broken collarbone ten minutes into it. Reece Goddard was serviceable in his replacement. WMU had 422 yards of offense, but allowed 459. Without Wassnik, WMU’s offense now revolves around RB Jarvion Franklin, who has 642 yards and eight TD’s this season. I’ll point out though that Central Michigan is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog in the 3.5 to seven points range, while Western Michigan is 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to ten points range. The road team is 5-0 ATS the last five in this series and clearly CMU will be desperate to string a couple more wins together to try and reach the six-win plateau. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on Central Michigan. Good luck…Larry |
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11-01-17 | Hawks +8.5 v. 76ers | Top | 109-119 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:05 EST). The 1-6 Atlanta Hawks are in Philadelphia to take on the 3-4 76ers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Hawks are going to be desperate tonight after dropping six straight, most recently falling 117-106 at home to Milwaukee on Sunday. Conversely, I think the young 76ers look primed for a letdown here after their second consecutive victory, most recently posting an impressive (and highly satisfying) 115-107 road win over Houston on Monday. Dennis Schroder led Atlanta with 21 points and eight assists in his team’s most recent setback. So far ATL is ranked 25th in scoring with 99.6 PPG, while ranked 19th in scoring defense by conceding 107.6. Marco Belinelli contributes 14.6 points and 2.6 boards per game. Philadelphia averages 104.1 PPG, while ranked 21st on the defensive end in conceding 108.3. The 76ers shot an unreal 55 percent from the floor in their win over the Rockets. Joel Embiid leads the team with an average of 20.8 points and ten boards per contest. I’ll point out though that the Hawks have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 15-11 ATS in their last 26 when playing with two days of rest, while the 76ers are interestingly just 16-21 ATS in their last 37 against the Southeast division. I’m not calling for an outright victory, but I do definitely expect the hungry Hawks to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 36 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* World Series GAME OF THE YEAR is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 1, then took the Astros in Game’s 2 and 3, before then taking the Dodgers in Game 4 and then once again back on the Astros (run-line) in Game 5. Justin Verlander is a big reason why the Astros are where they are right now, but with their backs against the wall, I expect the Dodgers to respond in a big way tonight and to push this awesome World Series to a pivotal Game 7. As mentioned off the top, Verlander is pitching out of his mind right now, posting a 2.05 ERA and 1.04 WHIP to go along with a 4-0 record over 30.2 innings of playoff work. LA is countering with Rich Hill, who has given up a total of four runs over his three playoff starts, resulting in a 2.77 ERA (note that Hill has done well against the Astros throughout his career as well, going 3-1 with a 2.68 ERA spanning 40.1 frames of work.) A little “home cooking” is just what the doctor ordered for the Dodgers though, who are 5-1 in the playoffs at Chavez Ravine thus far. Verlander has been exceptional, but I think the pressure finally gets to the veteran tonight. Hill has been solid at home all year and I think he offers tremendous value in this elmination spot. Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-17 | Miami-OH +10 v. Ohio | Top | 28-45 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 1 m | Show |
This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on Miami Ohio (7:30 EST). The 3-5 Miami Redhawks are in Ohio to take on the 6-2 Bobcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Miami Ohio is off a 24-14 home win over Buffalo, while Ohio comes in off a 48-3 crushing of Kent State. Note that when these team’s played last year, it was the Bobcats that pulled off the 17-7 win, making this a revenge-scenario for the Redhawks. Miami Ohio averages 23.6 PPG and concedes 24.5. Last week the defense came up huge against Buffalo, holding it to just 271 yards on 14 first downs. The offense posted 350 yards, with RB Kenny Young running for 125 yards and two TD’s. QB Billy Bahi has played the last three games and has 470 yards and two TD’s. Ohio ranks 13th in scoring at 40.8 PPG, while ranked 62nd in the country on the defensive side in conceding 25.4 PPG. The pass defense is poor though, ranked 90th in the nation in conceding 239 YPG. I’ll point out that Miami Ohio is 5-3 ATS in its last eight off a win against a conference rival and 2-1 ATS in its last three coming out of its bye week, while Ohio is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU victories. Ohio has punched its ticket to the postseason, while Miami Ohio needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at a bowl invitation. I think the Redhawks are clearly the “hungrier” team here today, as this one sets up as a bit of a “trap” for the home side. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-31-17 | Suns v. Nets -2.5 | Top | 122-114 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Brooklyn Nets (7:30 EST). The 2-4 Phoenix Suns are in Brooklyn to take on the 3-4 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Phoenix travels across the country after falling 114-107 in Portland on Saturday, while Brooklyn lost its second straight in a 124-111 setback at home to the Nuggest on Sunday. So far the Suns are ranked 19th in the league in scoring with 102.5 PPG, while ranked second to last on the defensive side in conceding 117.2. Devin Booker had 34 points in the loss to Portland. With Eric Bledsoe now gone, TJ Warren will be leaned upon more, so far he’s chipped in 14 points and 5.2 boards per game. The Nets are dominating offensively, averaging 114.7 PPG. Unfortunatley for Brooklyn though it’s conceding 118.3 (the worst in the league.) Spencer Dinwiddle came off the bench to lead the Nets with 22 points in the team’s most recent setback. But so far D’Angelo Russell leads the nightly charge with 19.8 points and 5.2 assists per game. From a trend based stand point, this was favors the home side as note that Phoenix has struggled in this spot for bettors for some time now, going just 4-15 ATS in its last 19 when playing with two days rest, while Brooklyn has excelled by going 13-6 ATS in its last 19 against the Pacific division. The Suns’ lack of depth will continue to be a problem for the team until it can deal Bledsoe. Brooklyn comes in rested, focused and healthy. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-30-17 | Maple Leafs +100 v. Sharks | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (10:35 EST). I had a play on the Flyers in their 4-2 upset win in Toronto on Saturday. After a blistering and unsustainable start to the season, the Leafs now look to get back on track and a date on the road away from the spot light in Toronto is just what the doctor ordered in my opinion. San Jose was 3-2 on its Eastern road swing, most recently getting the better of Buffalo 3-2 on Saturday. To say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement as well as the Sharks have taken nine straight in the series, including a 3-1 victory in the most recent matchup in San Jose back on February 28th. Despite their recent struggles, the Leafs are still ranked as the No. 1 offense with 4.1 GPG this year. The defense is conceding 3.6 GPG. A big part of the Toronto’s early success has been on special teams, as the Leafs are ranked 6th in the league on the power play, and ninth on the penalty kill. Goaltender Frederik Andersen had 26 saves in the loss to Philadelphia on the weekend. San Jose is ranked 22nd in the league with 2.7 GPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive end in conceding 2.6. The Sharks have also been sharp with special teams play, ranking in the Top 10 on both the power play and the penalty kill. Aaron Dell had 31 saves for San Jose in the win over Buffalo. The Sharks though have struggled in this spot for a whle now, going just 1-6 in their last seven following a victory. Additionally I’ll point out that Toronto is 4-0 its last four against the Western Conference. I think San Jose has a letdown here in its first game back from the road, while Toronto gets back on track with a much more solid defensive effort. All things considered, this is great overall value. Good luck…Larry |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs -7 | Top | 19-29 | Win | 100 | 58 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* NFL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Kansas City Chiefs (8:30 EST). Both teams have been scuffling. The Broncos have lost two straight, most recently getting shutout 21-0 by the Chargers this past weekend, while the Chiefs have also fallen on recent hard times by dropping two straight, most recently a crushing 31-30 setback to Oakland on October 19th. I think KC bounces back in a big way here though as it looks to take advantage of a Denver team which is dealing with several injuries to its offensive line and at the WR position. Denver WR Emmanual Sanders missed the game against LA because of a sprained ankle and he’s listed as questionable for this one as well (if he does happen to play, clearly he’s going to be less than 100% capacity.) Broncos’ QB Trevor Siemian was 25 of 35 for 207 yards and a pick in the loss. Denver’s defense remains its strength, allowing only 258.5 YPG. That unit though clearly faces a stiff test against this prolific offense and in this hostile environment. Last week Chiefs’ QB Alex Smith was 25 of 36 for 342 yards and three TD’s. So far Smith has 15 TD’s and zero INT’s on the year. RB Kareem Hunt added 87 yards and now has 1,002 yards and six TD’s on the season. KC ranks third in YPG overall with 392.4, but it ranks 29th on the defensive end in conceding 396.3 YPG. The Chiefs’ defense catches a big break this week though in facing the one-dimensional Broncos’ offense. KC opened the year 5-0, but it’s since dropped its last two. The game against the Raiders could have gone either way though, so they could easily be sitting at 6-1. Oakland was desperate last week and it managed to take care of business at home against a divisional opponent. But with those two losses behind them, I’m expecting Smith and the Chiefs to return to form on the national stage and to ultimately pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover on Monday night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-30-17 | Wolves v. Heat UNDER 216.5 | Top | 125-122 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the UNDER between the Minnesota Timberwolves and the Miami Heat (7:35 EST). The Wolves have so far played six games this year and so far the Over/Under has gone 5-0-1, while Miami has seen it go 3-2 thus far. The Wolves broke a two game slide by beating OKC 119-116 on Friday, while Miami has lost two straight, most recently a 96-90 setback at home to Boston on Saturday. These teams played twice last year and both contests went “over” the number, including the Heat’s 123-105 victory on March 17th in Miami. So far the Wolves average 106.8 PPG, while conceding 114.2. Andrew Wiggins averages 19.3 points and 4.5 boards per game, while Karl-Anthony Towns posts 24.8 points and 11.8 boards. Towns had 33 points, 19 boards and four blocks in the win over the Thunder. The Heat average just 103 points, while allowing 106. Goran Dragic averages 20.2 points, 3.6 boards and four assists per contest. I’ll point out though that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five when playing on two days rest, while Miami has seen the total go under the number in 51 of its last 87 when playing the role of underdog and in 13 of its last 22 after playing three consecutive home games. The Heat are desperate to stop their small two-game slide and will look to slow down this contest whenever possible so as to avoid getting into a “track meet” with the high-flying Wolves. And for Minnesota, with a game at New Orleans and the “Twin Towers” up next, it’s not too hard to imainge the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I think the numbers and the overall situation point to the under as the correct move in this particular contest. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Steelers -2.5 v. Lions | Top | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST). The Steelers come in on top form and catch a Lions team that’s going to be rusty coming out of its bye week. In my opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger. Detroit has lost two straight, most recently to Carolina and New Orleans, while Pittsburgh has won two very tough games in a row against KC and Cincinnati. Ben Roethlisberger threw five INT’s in a 30-9 loss to Jacksonville earlier in the month and since then has gone 2-0 with three TD’s and one INT. Big Ben has gotten plenty of help as well, as RB Le’Veon Bell has 313 yards combined over his last two games. The Steelers rush defense has been dominant as well, holding the Chiefs to 28 yards and the Bengals to 71: “The sky’s the limit,” Steelers’ linebacker Bud Dupree assessed after last week’s win. “Not even the sky’s the limit. We’re not going to put a ceiling on our head. We’re going to keep going up.” Detroit ranks 26th in the NFL in total offense with 298.0 YPG and the run game averages just 4.6 YPC. QB Matt Stafford has 12 TD’s and six picks on the year. The numbers/trends also support Pittsburgh this weekend, as note that the Steelers are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 on the road and 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 after rushing for more than 150 yards in their previous game, while the Lions are just 1-4 ATS in their last five at home and only 1-6 ATS in their last seven against clubs with winning records. Detroit’s leading receiver Golden Tate has a shoulder injury and is listed as day to day. If he does happen to play, clearly he’s not going to be at 100% capacity. Stafford doesn’t have too many options left (Marvin Jones Jr. has 20 catches for 280 yards and three TD’s), and he’s turned the ball over six times in the last three games. Pittsburgh continues to gain confidence though, especially by RB Bell, who looks poised for another big game tonight. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Dodgers v. Astros +1.5 | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Game 5 Las Vegas Insider is the Houston Astros on the RUN-LINE (8:15 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 and then came back with the Astros in both Game’s 2 and 3. I then had the Dodgers in Game 4 last night. This is turning out to be a pretty good World Series as we’re all knotted up at two games apiece. Clayton Kershaw got the better of Dallas Keuchel in Game 1, but I think Keuchel will be able to match the Dodgers’ ace inning for inning tonight. Kershaw gave up one run over seven innings to go along with 11 K’s in Game 1. Kershaw has now allowed eight runs over 24.1 playoff innings this year, which equates to a 2.96 ERA and 0.82 WHIP. Cody Bellinger was key in our success yesterday, as he was 2 for 4 with two doubles and an RBI (note though that he was 0 for 11 in the World Series heading into Game 4.) Keuchel gave up three runs over 6.1 innings in the Game 1 setback. So far Keuchel has given up eight total runs over 24 playoff innings of work, which equates to a 3.00 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP. One other player for Houston to keep your eyes on today is Jose Altuve, who is 6 for 15 with four dubles in regular season action against Kershaw and who was 1 for 3 against him in Game 1. Also note that despite yesterday’s setback, the Astros are still 7-1 in their last eight playoff home games. Kershaw gets the nod in this matchup, but not by much. And there’s no question that Keuchel gets a small boost here because of the “home field” advantage factor. In a contest which I foresee being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to lay what I deem to be a very reaonsable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Play on the Astros on the run-line. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 207.5 | Top | 113-120 | Win | 100 | 27 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the over Magic/Hornets (6:05 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this number is just a little low. The Magic come in “firing on all cylinders” to open the season, now 4-1 and having won three straight, most recently a 114-87 smoke-job of the Spurs on Friday. The Hornets have alternated wins and losses this year and will be eager to return to the winners circle after a lacklustre 109-93 setback to the Rockets on Friday. So far in the early going Orlando is second in the league in scoring with an average of 118 PPG, while ranked 20th in scoring defense in conceding 107.2 per contest. Evan Fournier led the charge against the Spurs with 25 points. The Magic are second in the league in field goal percentage with 49.8 percent collectively. Charlotte is averaging just 99.2 PPG thus far, while allowing 99.6. Kemba Walker leads the team with 22 points and 5.8 assists per game, while Dwight Howard is averaging 14.4 points and 17.6 boards per contest. The Hornets though have seen the total go over the number in 22 of their last 38 against poor defensive clubs which allow 106-plus points per contest. Also note that Orlando has seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of its last seven after three or more consecutive SU victories. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 50.5 | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 12 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is on the under between the Dallas Cowboys and the Washington Redskins (4:25 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this number is just a little high. Both teams come in disappointed to be sitting at 3-3 at this point of the season. Washington will be looking to get things taken care of on the defensive side of the ball this week after a poor 34-24 road loss in Philadelphia on Monday night, while Dallas comes in off a 40-10 road win over the hapless 49ers. Previous to that though Dallas had lost two straight at home. Note that Washington plays with the double revenge factor here as well after dropping both games in the series last year. The game plan will be simple again this week for the Cowboys. Just hand the ball to Ezekiel Elliot and get out of the way! Last week he rushed for 147 yards and two TD’s, while catching one pass for a 72 yard major score as well. In all Dallas rushed for 265 yards, while throwing for 236. Dallas ranks in the middle of the pack defensively in allowing 23.7 PPG. Washington QB Kirk Cousins was 30 of 40 for 308 yards, three TD’s and one pick last weekend. The Skins’ ground game came to a halt though, posting just 75 yards on 18 attempts. The Skins’ offense looks good, averaging 369.2 YPG, but the defense is ranked just 26th in conceding 24.5. I’ll point out though that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 19 on the road and in 11 of its last 16 as an underdog, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four off a divisional contest. These are two teams desperate to prove themselves defensively and with each putting an added emphasis on that side of the ball this weekend, I do indeed feel this number is just a little high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2.5 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 123 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 8 Las Vegas Insider is on the Buf Bills at 1:00 ET. The 3-4 Oakland Raiders are in Buffalo to take on the 4-2 Bills on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, all signs point to a comfortable cover for the home side. Oakland looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its thrilling 31-30 home win over Kansas City. Conversely, I think the “under the radar” Bills are poised for another big day after holding on for a 30-27 win over a dangerous Tampa Bay team at home last weekend. Note that this is a “revenge” game for the Bills as well after they fell 38-24 in Oakland last season. So far Oakland has averaged just 22.1 PPG, while ranked 18th overall in allowing 22.3 PPG. QB Derek Carr has looked brilliant at times this season and downright awful in others. He was sharp against the Chiefs, going for 417 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. On the year Carr has 1,341 passing yards, 11 TD’s and four picks. Amari Cooper had a big game against KC, hauling in 11 passes for 210 yards and two TD’s. Note though that previous to that Cooper had just 146 total yards over his first six games, so reading too much into one decent start is in my opinion, dangerous. Buffalo enters ranked 19th in scoring with 19.8 PPG, but it makes up for it on the defensive end in conceding just 16.8, ranked fourth. LeSean McCoy had 91 yards and two TD’s last week. QB Tyrod Taylor has 1,178 yards, seven TD’s and just two INT’s on the season. Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 games played in the month of October and just 2-4 ATS in its last six against teams with winning records, while Buffalo has excelled in this position by going 10-8 ATS in its last 18 at home (including 2-0 this season) and 2-1 ATS in its last three played in the month of October. The Raiders looked good with their backs against the wall last week, but as I stated earlier, I’m not reading too much into one decent performance. The Bills have been sharp all year and have been at the best at home. In my professional opinion, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on Buffalo. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Bears v. Saints -9 | 12-20 | Loss | -103 | 120 h 39 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST). I’ve played the Saints the last two weeks and I think New Orleans is going to keep the goods times rolling with another convincing victory at home this afternoon. New Orleans most recently posted a solid 26-17 road win over Green Bay last week, while the Bears held on for an improbable 17-3 home win over Carolina. Chicago’s defense saved the day last week, because QB Mitchell Trubisky had just 107 yards on four passes. Over three games Trubisky has shown promise with 348 yards, two TD’s and one pick. The Bears’ offense struggled overall though and failed to score a TD. Chicago forced three turnovers, but note that despite that it still owns the 31st ranked pass defense in the league. New Orleans conceded just 260 total yards to Brett Hundley and the Packers last week. Hundley is no Aaron Rodgers, but there’s no question that the Saints looks vastly improved on the defensive side of the ball this season. The Saints’ offense is of course led by QB Drew Brees, who wasn’t at his best in the victory last week, posting 338 yards, one TD and two INT’s. Overall though Brees is putting together another solid campaign with 1,652 passing yards and an 11:4 TD to INT ratio. One other player for New Orleans to keep your eyes on today is WR Ted Ginn Jr., who had 141 receiving yards on seven catches last weekend. I’ll point out as well that Chicago has struggled in this spot for bettors, going just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road and only 3-11 ATS in its last 14 after allowing less than 15 points in its previous outing, while New Orleans is 5-0 ATS in its last five following a SU victory and 7-1 ATS in its last eight against teams with losing records. New Orleans comes into this one on top form. The Bears’ biggest strength is their defense and the biggest weakness of that unit is the pass defense. That’s bad news facing a confident Drew Brees at home. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Falcons v. Jets +4.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 38 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Jets (1:00 EST). Atlanta is 3-3 SU and comes off a horrible effort in New England last weekend. The Falcons have now lost three straight and look like a team with more questions than answers right now. New York has looked much better than almost everyone expected, but it will be looking to get back on track after consecutive setbacks to New England and Miami. In last weekend’s loss to New England, Atlanta suffered another injury to LB Duke Riley, who will be out for at least four weeks. After three straight wins, Matt Ryan and company continue to struggle with consistency. And that doesn’t bode well in facing this “under the radar” Jets’ defense in my opinion. Even at 3-4, New York is still in contention in the wide open AFC East. QB Josh McCown has been better than expected, last week going 17 of 27 for 209 yards, three TD’s and one pick, while also rushing a TD in himself. I’ll point out as well that ATL is just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 following a SU loss, while New York is 4-0 ATS in its last four in front of the home town crowd. McCown is on fire this year and won’t be shy to open up the playbook again today against this porous Falcons’ secondary. Note that McCown has completed almost 70 percent of his passes and already has ten TD’s. Ryan on the other hand has been a complete disaster, throwing six picks and just seven INT’s. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for the Jets to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Good luck…Larry |
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10-29-17 | Panthers v. Bucs -2 | 17-3 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 38 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (1:00 EST). The 4-3 Carolina Panthers look to get back on track after a humbling 17-3 loss to Chicago last week, while the Bucs will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone after a tough 30-27 road loss in Buffalo. If recent history is any precedence though, then Tampa Bay has to be liking its chances today as it took both meetings in the series last year. Panthers’ QB Cam Newton was 21 of 34 for 211 yards, no TD’s and two INT’s last week. Newton is starting to show signs of fatigure already this year, having thrown five INT’s over his last two games (owns a poor 9/10 TD/INT ratio.) RB Jon Stewart managed just 48 yards on 14 carries. Note that in three games already this season the Panthers have scored 13 or fewer points. The defense remains a strength of the team and it looked good against the inept Bears last week, but clearly the unit faces a much stiffer test against the dynamic Jameis Winston and company. Winston was 32 of 44 for 384 yards, three TD’s and one INT in last week’s loss. So far he has 1,643 passing yards and 10/4 TD/INT ratio. WR Mike Evans continued his strong campaign with seven catches for 88 yards. Tampa’s defense struggled last Sunday, but it catches a break this weekend in facing a suddenly struggling Newton. Also note that Carolina is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 against the division and just 1-3 ATS in its last four against teams with losing records, while Tampa Bay is 2-1 ATS in its last three against clubs with winning records and 2-1 ATS in its last three after two or more consecutive SU losses. Winston and his offense comes in on top form and he rides the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd. Newton is struggling and I think that gets carried over here. Play on Tampa Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | USC -3 v. Arizona State | 48-17 | Win | 100 | 131 h 19 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on USC (10:45 EST). The 6-2 USC Trojans are at Arizona State to take on the 4-3 Sun Devils and in my opinion, this one favors the visiting side. USC won’t be playing in the College Football Playoff after last week’s 49-14 loss at Note Dame, but the team will be eager to bounce back and take out its frustrations tonight. Trojans’ QB Sam Darnold was 20 of 28 for 229 yards and two TD’s. Darnold has been decent, not great this season by throwing for 2,292 yards, 17 TD’s and ten INT’s. Note that one of his best games of his career came against Arizona State last year, finishing with 352 yards and three TD’s in the 41-20 win last year. The Sun Devils have won two straight, most recently a 30-10 victory at Utah last Saturday. Arizona State’s defense looked pretty good in the win, posting four INT’s. Note though that previous to that the Sun Devils had forced just five turnovers on the season. I’ll point out as well that USC is 13-4 ATS in its last 17 following a SU loss, while Arizona State is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 or more points in an OT victory in its previous outing. I like Darnold to have another big game against this suspect Sun Devils’ secondary. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Washington State -2.5 v. Arizona | 37-58 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Washington State (9:30 EST). The 7-1 Washington State Cougars are in Arizona to take on the 5-2 Wildcats and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Note that when these teams met last year, WSU smashed Arizona 69-7. WSU bounced back from its first loss of the year to post an impressive 28-0 win over Colorado last week. QB Luke Falk was 17 of 34 for 197 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s. But as good as Falk looked, it was the Cougars’ defense which really impressed, a unit which is now conceding just 274 yards on average per game. Arizona looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after its 45-44 double OT win over Cal on the road in its latest outing. RB Zach Green had 130 yards on 20 carries, while QB Khalil Tate had 137 rushing yards and a score, along with 166 passing yards, two TD’s and a pick through the air. Arizona looked horrible defensively though, conceding 473 yards, allowing Cal 31 first downs and to convert on 13 of 19 third down opportunities. I’ll point out as well that Washington State is 14-4 ATS in its last 18 following an ATS victory and 7-3 ATS in its last ten road games against a team with a winning home record, while Arizona is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 conference contests. The Wildcats’ offense is in for a stiff test today after last week’s big performance. All signs point a comfortable cover for the Cougars in my opinion. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Dodgers +118 v. Astros | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 14 h 60 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STROM is on the LA Dodgers (8:15 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 and then had the Astros in both Games 2 and 3. Game 2 was a big mental blow for the Dodgers and the Astros were able to carry over that momentum and ride the wave of emotion in front of the home town crowd in Game 3. However, with their backs against the wall, I think the hard-hitting Dodgers are going to respond here. Alex Wood might not have pitched in ten days, but I don’t think that’s going to matter once this one gets underway. Wood struggled in Game 4 of the NLDS, giving up three runs over 4.2 innings. Wood though put together his finest regular season campaign ever by going 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA and 1.06 WHIP over 152.1 innings of work. Note that Wood was particularly sharp on the road this year as well, going 7-1 with a 2.24 ERA. The Dodgers’ have struggled with offensive consistency over the last two games, but I think the line-up catches a break today in facing the 32 year old Charlie Morton (note that LA is still 3-2 on the road in the playoffs thus far.) Morton went five scoreless in the Game 7 win over the Yankees in the ALCS. Note though that he was blasted for seven runs in Game 1 against New York. In fact, Morton has given up a total of nine runs over 13 innings during the postseason and owns a horrible 6.23 ERA and 1.54 WHIP. Also note that Morton has struggled mightily against the Dodgers throughout his career, giving up 11 runs over 11 innings against them. All good things must come to an end. The Astros 7-0 home record is obviously very impressive, but MLB handicapping for the most part comes down to starting pitching. His last outing aside, Morton has been shaky at best this year. While Wood wasn’t at his absolute best in his last start, he’s still been one of the most consistent in the entire league all year. With their backs against the wall and facing a possible 1-3 deficit, I think the value is on the visitors tonight. Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Rockets v. Grizzlies -1.5 | Top | 89-103 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:05 EST). Houston is 5-1 and comes in off a big 109-93 win at Charlotte just last night. Memphis will look to take advantage of a tired and complacent Rockets team and build off its latest 96-91 victory at home over Dallas on Thursday. And if recent history is any precedence, then the Grizz have to be liking their chances, as note that Memphis scored the 98-90 road win over the Rockets back on October 23rd. Houston averages 105.8 PPG and concedes 102.8. With last night’s victory at Charlotte, the Rockets are already 4-0 on the road to start the year. Can anyone say letdown spot here? Not surprisingly, James Harden is leading the charge with 26.4 PPG, while Eric Gordon contributes 24.6. Memphis averages 100.4 PPG and concdes just 95.2. Marc Gasol averages 25 points and 10.8 boards per game, while Mike Conley adds 19.4 points and 4.2 assists per night. With a night off before a “cream puff” at home against Philadelphia, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets also getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I’m banking on the Grizzlies taking advantage. Play on Memphis. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Texas Tech +20.5 v. Oklahoma | 27-49 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 35 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST). The 4-3-1 Texas Tech Red Raiders are 5-2 ATS, while the No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners are 6-1 SU and 3-4 ATS. The Sooners enter off a 42-35 road win over K-State, while Texas Tech comes in off two straight losses, most recently a 31-13 setback to Iowa State this past weekend (note that Oklahoma also lost to Iowa State 38-31 on Oct. 7th.) Texas Tech QB Nic Shimonek was 31 of 41 for 207 yards, no TD’s and a pick against Iowa State last week. It was a rare “off” game for Shimonek though, who already has 2,341 passing yards, 18 TD’s and only five INT’s this season. Oklahoma gave up 412 yards of offense last week. RB Rodney Anderson had 147 rushing yards and a score, while QB Baker Mayfield had 410 yards, two TD’s and an INT. From a trend based stand point, this one highly favors the visitors, as note that the Red Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their last seven after two or more consecutive SU losses and 11-7 ATS in its last 18 when playing the role of underdog, while Oklahoma is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I think that Shimonek will bounce back here and I look for him to match pace with Mayfield. This is a few too many points, play on Texas Tech. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Tennessee +6 v. Kentucky | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 129 h 40 m | Show | |
This is a 9* Oddsmaker’s Error on Tennessee (7:30 EST). The 3-4 Tennessee Volunteers need to string some wins together if they have any shot at making a bowl. The 5-2 Kentucky Wildcats are on the cusp of bowl inclusion, but I think they are going to struggle against this determined Vols side. Tennessee enters off a humbling 45-7 loss to Alabama on the road and it’s now 0-4 in conference play. Kentucky comes in off a 45-7 loss at Mississippi State, dropping it to 2-2 in league play. If recent history is any precedence though, then Tennessee has to be liking its chances for a conference victory today, because when these teams met last year it was the Vols that pulled away for the 49-36 victory. So far Tennessee averages just 19.6 PPG, while conceding 26.9 PPG (ranked fifth against the pass in allowing only 158.1 YPG through the air.) The Vols have been atrocious against the run the last few weeks, but they catch a break here because the Wildcats are a pass first offense. And that falls right into the wheel house of their defensive strength. Kentucky averages 24.6 PPG and allows 24.7. With a home game against a horrible Mississippi team on the horizon, the Wildcats stil have chances to punch their ticket. Both team’s offenses struggled last week, but note that the Vols have performed extremely well in this spot for bettors, going 3-1 ATS in their last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Kentucky is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after playing a conference game and only 7-13 ATS in its last 20 against the conference. Tennessee coach Butch Jones’ job is on the line here and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry Volunteers to keep this one close enough down the stretch to comfortably sneak in through the back door once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Flyers +144 v. Maple Leafs | 4-2 | Win | 144 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:05 EST). Both teams come in off losses. Both teams will be hungry, but I think the Leafs’ blistering start to the year has put added pressure onto them and I believe continued regression is imminent. The Flyers most recently fell 5-4 in Ottawa, while the Leafs lost 6-3 at home to the Hurricanes. Philadelphia is averaging 3.40 GPG and conceding just 2.90. Goaltender Michael Neuvirth will get the nod in net tonight and he’s 9-6 with a 2.84 GAA lifetime against the Leafs. Toronto is averaging 4.30 GPG (an unsustainable number) and allowing 3.60 (more realistic.) Frederik Andersen is 6-3 with a 3.54 GAA on the year and is 6-0 with a 2.60 GAA lifetime against the Flyers. Neuvirth can match Andersen and the Flyers offense is once again firing on all cylinders. I expect Toronto to have another letdown here. Great value, play on the Flyers. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Vanderbilt +7 v. South Carolina | 27-34 | Push | 0 | 125 h 0 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Vanderbilt (4:00 EST). The 3-4 Vanderbilt Commodores are just 2-5 ATS, while the 5-2 Gamecocks are 4-2-1 ATS thus far. Vanderbilt though is 0-4 in SEC action and I think it’s going to be the much “nungrier” team overall today. Note that Vandy plays with revenge here as well after it fell 13-10 to South Carolina last season. Both teams come in off their repsective bye weeks. Commodores’ QB Kyle Shurmur was 13 of 27 for 174 yards with two TD’s and a pick in his team’s most recent setback to Ole Miss. RB Ralph Webb was a bright spot in that one with 163 yards on 23 attempts along with two major scores of his own. Overall Shurmur has been strong this year with 1,331 passing yards, 14 TD’s and just two INT’s to this point. The Gamecocks’ defense is their strong point, allowing only 19.3 PPG. That defense faces a stiff test today in Shurmur though. South Carolina QB Jake Bentley was 15 of 24 for 129 yards in the win over Tennessee, while AJ Turner had 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. I’ll point out though that Vanderbilt has performed extremly well in this spot for bettors, going 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while South Carolina has struggled in this position by going just 1-3 ATS in its last four against a school with a losing record. I think Vanderbilt’s offense puts the home side to the test this afternoon. Grab as many points as you can, play on Vanderbilt. Good luck…Larry |
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10-28-17 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina +20.5 | Top | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* ACC GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (12:00 EST). The 6-0 Miami Hurricanes are in UNC to take on the 1-7 Tar Heels and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do think that the Hurricanes will come in a tiny bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the humbled Tar Heels to sneak in through down the stretch. Miami already has four conference wins. The Hurricanes have so far been a bit “lucky” perhaps though, as they have just one fumble and three INT’s total on the year. Miami also has 12 takeaways of its own. The Hurricanes’ offense has suffered a big loss though with an injury to top RB Mark Walton last week (had a 7.6 yards per carry average.) UNC’s record is terrible, but the competition it’s played against to this point has been considerable, with all seven losses coming against big-time schools. So far the Heels are allowing an average of 34.6 PPG, while the offense has also struggled. But good news for UNC fans sees the return of starting QB Chazz Surratt, who has been out with injury. Backup Brandon Harris had five INT’s last weekend. I’ll point out as well that Miami is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 200 yards rushing in its previous game, while UNC is 5-1 ATS in its last six in this series. With Surratt coming back, the Tar Heels get a big mental boost this weekend. The Hurricanes on the other hand have a game at home against the 6-1 Hokies next Saturday, making this not only a potential “letdown” spot, but also a “look ahead” spot for the visitors as well. It’s a trap of epic proportions for Miami on Saturday afternoon. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros -114 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 35 h 44 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST). I had a play on the under in Game 1 and then played the Astros in Game 2. It was a wild affair in Game 2 and it obviously could have gone either way. However, I think the momentum is now firmly on the Astros’ side after that big victory and as the series shifts to Houston. The Dodgers turn to Yu Darvish (10-12, 3.86 ERA) who has so far been lights out in the playoffs, going 2-0 with a 14/1 K/W ratio, while giving up just two runs. I think it should be noted though that while Darvish performed well on the road this year, he was just 8-8 with a pedestrian 4.00 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side counters with Lance McCullers (7-4, 4.25) who also comes in off a strong LCS performance, giving up just one earned run while striking out nine over ten innings against the hard-hitting Yankees. Note that McCullers was 4-0 with a 3.04 ERA at home and was 4-2 with a 3.62 ERA in all “night” contests this year. At times I think “momentum” can be a very real, almost “tangible” factor (in every sport and especially in the postseason) and it’s one which I’ve always felt that the books have a hard time properly quantifying into a line. And that’s the case here. I like McCullers to match Darvish inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely believe that the value swings to the home side. Play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -3 v. Boston College | 3-35 | Loss | -107 | 117 h 48 m | Show | |
My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Florida State (8:00 EST). The 2-4 Florida State Seminoles are 0-4-2 ATS. The 4-4 Boston College Eagles are 5-3 ATS. FSU needs to immediatley start stringing some wins together if it has any shot at making a 36th straight bowl appearance and in my opinion, this is the perfect opponent to get untracked against. The Seminoles come in off a 31-28 loss at home to Louisville on Saturday. QB James Blackman had 248 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. And if recent history is any precedence, then FSU head coach Jumbo Fisher has to be liking his chances today as his team has won three in a row at Boston College and seven straight in the series overall. BC looks primed for a letdown in my opinion as well. After giving up 83 points in consecutive losses to Notre Dame and Clemson, the Eagles have won three of four, most recently routing Virginia 41-10 on Saturday. Boston College QB Anthony Brown had 275 yards and three TD’s. Previous to that though Brown had completed just 51.2 percent of his passes with seven TD’s. Losing breeds desperation and winning leads to complacency. BC has been held to seven or fewer points in four of its last seven setbacks to Florida State. The Seminoles’ defense is a strength still and I think it’s going to be a difference maker today as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Florida State is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Boston College is 0-7 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. I think Blackman can match Brown and as stated above, I like FSU to step up this week on the defensive side in this favorable matchup. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-17 | Blues +103 v. Hurricanes | 2-1 | Win | 103 | 25 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Blues (7:35 EST). Carolina comes in off a satisfying 6-3 win in Toronto just last night an suffice it to say, I think it’s going to have a letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back. St. Louis lost 3-2 to Vegas in OT last Saturday, but then most recently bounced back with a convincing 5-2 win at home over the Flames. Alex Steen had four points, with a goal and three assists. Blues’ goaltender Jake Allen is 5-2-1 with a 2.70 GAA and .912 save percentage. And he’s been fantastic against the Hurricanes, going 3-1-0 with a 2.04 GAA and .927 save percentage lifetime. Note that so far St. Louis averages 3.30 GPG and concedes 2.60. Carolina averges 2.43 GPG and allows 3.00. Goaltender Cam Ward will likely get the call here after Scott Darling went last night. Ward has done well against St. Louis in the past, but sports an ugly 3.00 GAA in the early going this year. I’ll point out as well that St. Louis is 23-7 in its last 30 road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, while Carolina is just 1-5 in its last six at home. No need to overthink this one. St. Louis comes in focused and Allen is on absolute fire right now. The Hurricanes have been all over the map as far as their game-to-game consistency is concerned in the early going and they’re off a hugely satisfying road victory just last night. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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10-27-17 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 211.5 | Top | 109-93 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Rockets/Hornets (7:05 EST). The 4-1 Houston Rockets are in Charlotte to take on the 2-2 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has “shootout” written all over it. The Rockets bounced back from their first setback of the year to take down Philadelphia 105-104 on the road on Wednesday, while on the same night Charlotte was busy laying the smack down on Denver, 110-93. Houston took both meetings between the clubs last season. In Houston’s one point win on Wednesday, Eric Gordon nailed a three-pointer as time expired for the victory. The Rockets were sloppy, turning the ball over 19 times, but sharp from the charity stripe, going 21 of 24. So far Houston averages 105.8 PPG, while allowing 102.8. James Harden leads the nightly charge with 26.4 PPG and 9.6 assists, while Gordon adds 24.6 PPG. Charlotte on the other hand is already 2-0 at home to open the year. The Hornets have so far averaged 100.8 PPG and allowed 97.3 in the early going. Frank Kaminsky had 20 points off the bench to lead all scorers in the Hornets most recent victory. Note that veteran Dwight Howard has been dominating early, averaging 13.3 points and 17.8 boards per game. It’s interesting to note that Houston has seen the total go over the number in 14 of its last 25 against good defensive clubs which allow 98 points or less per contest, while Charlotte has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 30 of its last 46 after a win by ten points or more. I’m expecting a more wide open affair than what the bookmakers are trying to lead us to believe. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Ravens (8:25 EST). The 4-2 Miami Dolphins are coming off an epic 31-28 win at the Atlanta Falcons. In that win they lost starting QB Jay Cutler to injury and were led to victory by backup Matt Moore. The Ravens meanwhile are just 3-4 and they’ll be eager to get back into the winners circle after falling 24-16 at Minnesota this past weekend. As mentioned off the top, Moore came in to replace Cutler last week and he’d go for 188 yards, two TD’s and a pick. RB Jay Ajayi though had just 51 yards on 23 attempts. The Fish are ranked 32nd in total offense this year with just 261.8 yards per game accumulated on average. Miami has made up for it on the defensive end though, giving up 18.7 PPG thus far. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco was 27 of 39 for 186 yards with one TD and no picks last weekend. The Ravens are now dealing with injuries to the WR position and the unit is putting up just 18.3 PPG this year. The defense is poor against the run, but great against the pass (allowing 189.3 YPG in the air thus far.) I’ll point out though that Miami is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 off a divisional game and just 12-14 ATS in its last 26 as an underdog, while Baltimore is 4-2 ATS in its last six as a home favorite of three points or less. Moore looked “ok” last weekend, but this is a difficult place to play and the short week won’t help matters. There’s big time pressure on Moore to perform and I think he’s going to stumble here. The correct call is on Flacco and the hungry home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Hawks +2.5 v. Bulls | Top | 86-91 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (8:00 EST). The 1-3 Atlanta Hawks are in Chicago to take the 0-3 Bulls and in my opinion, all signs point to a cover for the visiting side. The Hawks opened the year with a win but have since dropped three straight, most recently a 104-93 setback at Miami on Monday. The Bulls can empathize, as they’ve lost three straight as well, most recently a 119-112 setback on the road in Cleveland. So far ATL is ranked 21st in scoring in the early going with 103.3 PPG, while ranked 20th in scoring defense in conceding 110. Kent Bazemore and Taurean Prince each had 20 points in the Hawks most recent setback. Chicago is averaging 96.3 PPG, while allowing 107.7. Justin Holiday had 25 points in the Bulls’ most recent loss. I’ll point out that ATL is 4-1 ATS in its last five agains the Central division, while Chicago is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing 100 points or more in its previous contest and just 1-5 ATS in its last six against the Eastern Conference. Mirotic and Portis are still out for Chicago, making the Hawks the deeper overall team tonight. I like Atlanta to take advantage of that fact and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Hurricanes v. Maple Leafs -148 | 6-3 | Loss | -148 | 27 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST). The 3-4 Carolina Hurricanes are in Toronto to take on the surging 7-2 Toronto Maple Leafs on Thursday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a comfortable victory for the home side. Carolina enters off a 5-1 home loss to Tampa Bay, while Toronto comes in off a 3-2 home win over the LA Kings. So far the Hurricanes are ranked 28th in the league in scoring with 2.43 GPG. Jeff Skinner leads the way with five goals, but no one else on the team has more than two. Scott Darling is expected in net for the visitors and he’s 2-4 with a 2.64 GAA so far this year, including 1-2 with a 2.39 GAA on the road. Toronto ranks No. 1 offensively with 4.44 GPG, while ranked 22nd in goals allowed with 3.33. Frederik Anderson is 6-2 with a 3.24 GAA thus far. Keep your eyes on Leafs’ superstar Auston Matthews, who leads the team in scoring with seven goals and 12 points overall. I’ll point out that Carolina has struggled in this spot for a while now, just 22-28 (-4.6 units) in its last 50 after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest, while Toronto has dominated in this spot by going 21-14 (+7.6 units) in its last 35 when playing with two days rest. I have a hard time seeing the Leafs “looking past” Carolina at this point of the season. In fact, this is a golden opportunity for Toronto to continue to progress. In my professional opinion, this line could easily be a lot larger. Play on the Leafs. Good luck…Larry |
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10-26-17 | Toledo v. Ball State +26 | Top | 58-17 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Ball State (7:00 EST). Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle” a little on the money line? Of course not. I simply feel this is a few too many points to be giving up in this situation. The 6-1 Toledo Rockets are at Ball State to take on the 2-5 Cardinals. Toledo looks primed for a bit of a letdown here though in my opinion after three straight wins. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cardinals as they try in vain to reach the six win plateau with just a handful of games remaining and on the heels of four straight losses (after starting the year 2-1.) Toledo QB Logan Woodside had 304 yards and five TD’s in his team’s 48-21 win over Akron. Prevoius to that though he’d posted just one major score over two combined games. RB Terry Swanson also looked good with 123 yards on 20 carries. The Cardinals will be desperate to get off the schneid, as they haven’t scored a TD since late September. Ball State had to transition to senior QB Jack Milas after stater Riley Neal went down with injury in a loss to WKU earlier in the season: “This is a fragile football team right now,” Ball State head coach Mike Neu admitted after the loss. “As much as I hate to admit it, we are struggling to overcome some of the injuries. It’s not for lack of want to, guys are working hard, but we’re doing some things that are uncharacteristic for our football team.” With back-to-back road games though, it’s not too hard to imagine the Rockets getting caught “looking ahead/past” their lowly opponent today. Additionally I’ll point out that Toledo has in fact struggled in this spot for bettors, interestingly going 0-2 ATS in its last two “Thursday night” contests. Ball State has been a bad team for a long time and it’s hard to find any positive ATS stats to back up this play, however take note that it’s 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring ten points or less in its previous contest. I think the home side keeps this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back down the stretch. Play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-17 | Wizards -7 v. Lakers | Top | 99-102 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 0 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (10:35 EST). With a game at Golden State up next, I think the Wizards leave everything on the floor tonight as the team tries to move to 4-0 to open a season for the first time since 1974. Washington most recently defeated Denver 109-104 on Monday, while the Lakers enter off a 119-112 setback at home to New Orleans on Sunday. So far the Wizards are averaging 115 PPG this year. Bradley Beal averages 23.3 PPG, while John Wall averages 24.3 PPG and 10.0 assists. Forward Otto Porter addes 18.3 points and 9.0 boards. The Lakers struggled with the Pelicans’ big men and they’ll have their hands full again tonight. All eyes will once again be on LaVar Ball for LA, he’s so far averaging 9.4 points, 8 boards and 12 assists per game. I’ll point out though that the Lakers are just 14-27 ATS in their last 41 against good offensive teams which score 106-plus points per contest, while the Wizards are 20-16 ATS in their last 36 against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per game. Wall and Beal are on a mission right now and won’t be “looking past” the Lakers today. Instead, this is a golden opportunity for Washington before a tough game on Friday night in Golden State. I’m laying the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-17 | Astros +105 v. Dodgers | 7-6 | Win | 105 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (8:05 EST). I had a play on the under in Game 1, but I think the value today is on Justin Verlander and the hungry Astros. Verlander is simply “on fire” right now, coming into the World Series on top form, posting a tiny 1.46 ERA and a almost non-existent 0.93 WHIP to go along with a perfect 4-0 record spanning 24.2 innings of work. Verlander has been decent against the Dodgers in his career, giving up six runs over 14 innings to go along with a perfect 2-0 record. The home side counters with Rich Hill, who gave up one run over five innings against the Cubs in the NLCS. Hill has had success against the Astros with a 3-1, 2.68 ERA lifetime record, but note that he’s a pedestrian 1-2 with a 4.01 ERA in 25 career playoff frames. But the numbers support Verlander and Houston today, as note that Houston is 4-0 in Verlander’s last four starts on four days rest, while LA is just 1-3 (-1.4 units) in its last four after holding an opponent to one run or less in its previous contest. Kershaw was a difficult challenge, but Hill is not of the same calibre. Houston hit seven home runs against southpaws in the ALDS and ALCS, cmpared to five against right-handed. I’m banking on Verlander to continue his amazing form and I look for the Astros to find a way to get the job done in Game 2. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-17 | Pacers v. Thunder -13 | 96-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:05 EST). The Pacers are primed for a letdown here after their epic 130-107 beatdown win over the Wolves as a ten point dog on the road last night. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the 1-2 Thunder today, who come into this one off consecutive losses, including a 115-113 setback to Minnesota in their latest. The Thunder actually had 38 points in the fourth quarter in the loss against the Wolves, but it wasn’t enough after a shaky start to the contest. Russell Westbrook had 31 points in that one. Paul George though will be looking to do some damage against his former team though and after posting just 14 points in the setback to Minnesota. I’ll point out though that Indiana is just 5-12-1 ATS in its last 18 when playing on zero days rest, while the OKC Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight against the Eastern conference. Indiana has allowed an average of 119 points so far this year and it comes in contented after last night’s upset win. The Thunder on the other hand will be eager for a big performance after a slow start to the season. No need to overthink this one, play on OKC. Good luck…Larry |
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10-25-17 | Cavs -6.5 v. Nets | 107-112 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:35 EST). Chicago gave Cleveland more of a fight than expected last night, but the Cavs would pull away down the stretch for the 119-112 victory in the end. Brooklyn also played last night and it’ll limp home after falling 125-121 in Orlando. LeBron James is not surprisingly leading the way so far for the Cavs this year with 25 points, 8.3 boards and 6.3 assists per game. Kevin Love chips in 17 points and 10.3 boards per contest. Cleveland wasn’t the best in back-to-back scenarios last season, going just 7-11, but clearly it catches a break here facing the lowly Nets, who also come in off a game just last night. The Nets are second in the league in scoring offense and second to last in scoring defense. Brooklyn’s struggles in back-to-back games was much worse that the Cavs last year as it would go just 1-13 in such instances, allowing an average of 115.6 points in those contests. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 on the road, while Brooklyn is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven home games against a team with a winning road record. I think the Cavs’ veteran experience in the second game of the back to back situation proves to be the difference tonight. Lay the points with confidence, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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10-24-17 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Blazers | 93-103 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 32 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New Orleans Pelicans (10:05 EST). The 1-2 New Orleans Pelicans will look to use their size to score an upset win over the smaller 2-1 Portland Trailblazers today. New Orleans comes in off a 119-112 road win over the Lakers on Saturday, while the Blazers look poised for another letdown here in my opinion after their first loss of the season in a 113-110 setback at Milwaukee. If recent history is any precedence though, then the Pelicans have to be liking their chances tonight as they’d go on to take three of four in the series last season. So far New Orleans is averaging 110 PPG, while allowing 114.3. Anthony Davis is averaging 31.7 PPG and 17.3 RPG. DeMarcus Cousins is posting 28.3 points and 11.7 boards per contest. Portland is so far averaging 116 points and conceding just 95. Damian Lillard is averaging 23.7 points and 5.3 assists per game while CJ McCollum has posted 27 PPG thus far. I’ll also point out that the Blazers are a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest, while the Pelicans are 23-20 ATS in their last 43 in the same position. The duo of Davis and Cousins is a considerable one and now it appears as if their supporting cast is finally starting to wake up after the convincing road win over the up-start Lakers. The Blazers got out to a quick start, but looked exposed in the loss to the Bucks. While I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I look for New Orleans to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Good luck…Larry |
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10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 54 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is the under Astros/Dodgers (8:05 EST). For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching. The Astros and the Dodgers get ready to collide in a much anticipated World Series and suffice it to say, I think runs are going to be at a premium in Game 1 with these two “studs” going head-to-head. The visitors turn to ace Dallas Keuchel (14-5, 2.90 ERA, 1.12 WHIP) who has looked spectacular in the playoffs so far and who owns a stellar 2.59 ERA in five career playoff starts. Note that Keuchel excelled on the road this year as well by going 8-2 with a very respectable 3.53 ERA. The home side counters with ace Clayton Kershaw (18-4, 2.31 ERA, 0.95 WHIP) who gave up one run over six innings in his team’s NLCS series clinching victory on Thursday. Note that Kershaw has been “lights out” at home all year, going 9-2 with a 2.58 ERA. There are many sub-plots and different stories surrounding the World Series, but for Game 1 my focus falls onto the men on the mound and in my opinion, all signs do indeed point to a classic “duel.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-24-17 | Flames v. Predators -137 | 3-2 | Loss | -137 | 24 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST). I think home ice will prove to be a major advantage for the Predators tonight. After a slow start, Nashville comes into this one with considerable moemntum, having won four of its last six and eager to return to the winners circle after falling to the Rangers on Saturday. Calgary has dropped two in a row and looks primed for a letdown here as well in my opinion. Nashville is in fact still unbeaten at home this year. That’s bad news for Sean Monahan and the Flames today. Monahan has scored a goal in five of his last six games. The Predators’ Fliip Forsberg had a goal in the 4-2 loss to the Rangers. For arguments sakes though, I’m going to call the goaltenders a “wash.” I will however point out that Calgary is a poor 2-4 (-1.7 units) in its last six after allowing four goals or more, while Nashville is 28-21 (+3.2 units) in its last 49 after a loss by two goals or more. So far the Preds have allowed only 21 goals this year, tied for fewest in the Western Conference. All things considered, I feel we’re getting a great price on the proven home side. Play on Nashville. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | Raptors v. Spurs UNDER 205 | 97-101 | Win | 100 | 32 h 41 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on under Raptors/Spurs (8:30 EST). The 2-0 SU/ATS Toronto Raptors have seen the Over/under go 2-0 so far this year, while the 2-0 SU and 1-1 ATS San Anontio Spurs have seen it go 1-1. This is the start of a tough six game road trip for the Raptors and suffice it to say, I think the team is going to struggle with offensive consistency in this one. Toronto most recently pulled away for a relatively simple 128-94 win over Philadelphia on Saturday, while San Antonio topped the Bulls 87-77 in its most recent action. So far the Raptors are averaging 122.5 PPG, a number which is clearly unsustainable. Toronto has also looked sharp defensively in conceding just 97 PPG. That’s likely not a number the team can maintain for too much longer either, but regardless, it’s still impressive. So far it’s been DeMar DeRozan leading the charge and he had 30 points in his team’s latest victory. LaMarcus Aldridge had 28 points and ten boards in the Spurs’ win over Chicago. San Antonio is still playing without leader Kawhi Leonard, which doesn’t bode well for the Spurs in a long-term scenario. Note that the Spurs are averaging just 97 PPG through two games, while allowing just 88. Additionally I’ll point out that despite its early high-scoring games, Toronto has in fact seen the total go under the number in 35 of its last 63 as an underdog and in 55 of its last 94 on the road overall, while San Antonio has seen the total go under the posted number in five of its last seven road games. I think the shift in venue throws a “monkey wrench” into the Raptors offensive consistency and I expect the home side to put added emphasis onto the defensive end of the floor with its star player sidelined with injury. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | Redskins +4.5 v. Eagles | 24-34 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 8 m | Show | |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Washington Redskins (8:30 EST). The 3-2 Washington Redskins are in Philadelphia to take on the 5-1 Eagles on Monday night and while I obvoiusly wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can as I expect the hungry visiting side to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. The Eagles most recently beat the Panthers 28-23, while the Redskins are coming off a 26-24 home win over the 49ers last Sunday. Note that this is a revenge game after Philadelphia scored the victory in the first meeting between the team’s this year, a 30-17 win back on September 10th. Last week Redskins’ QB Kirk Cousins was 25 of 37 for 330 yards, two TD’s and a pick. Washington looked a little flat footed coming out of its bye week, but managed to pull off the win in the end. So far the Skins have been getting the job done on the ground by committee, averaging 122.8 YPG thus far. Defensively Washington looks solid as well, allowing just 316 total yards per game, including only 88 rushing. The Eagles have been getting great play from QB Carson Wentz, who now has 1,584 yards, 13 TD’s and just three INT’s. While Philadelhpia is stout against the run (just 65.7 YPG), Cousins and company definitely catch a break today in facing the Eagles’ 29th ranked pass defense, which allows 273.5 YPG. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 against the division and only 1-3 ATS in its last four as a home favorite of 3.5 to seven points, while Washington is 12-4 ATS in its last 16 on the road and 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I think Cousins has a big day against this pathetic Eagles’ secondary. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | Grizzlies v. Rockets OVER 211.5 | Top | 98-90 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 11 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Grizzlies/Rockets (8:05 EST). Two of the top teams in the West collide on Monday night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting some offensive fireworks. The Memphis Grizzlies are 2-0 ASU/ATS, while the Houston Rockets are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS. So far the Grizz have seen the Over/Under go 0-2, while the Rockets have seen it go 1-2. Memphis looks primed for a big run in my opinion after its confidence boosting 111-101 home win over the Warriors on Saturday. The Rockets come in off a 107-91 win over the Mavericks on Saturday and will also be looking to keep the goods times rolling. Note that these two teams split four meetings last year, with Houston posting a 123-106 win in the most recent meeting here back on March 4th. The Grizz used a 32-20 third quarter to secure their win over the defending champs. Big man Marc Gasol had 34 points and 14 boards. Note that Memphis would go 10 of 27 from range as well. So far Memphis averages 107 PPG, while ranked seventh on the defensive side in conceding 96 PPG. That defense though is about to be tested by the high-flying Rockets, who average 111.3 PPG. The Grizzlies do catch a break in facing Houston’s mediocre 15th ranked defense which concedes 104 PPG. Note that James Harden has averaged 27.7 PPG thus far. I’ll point out as well that Memphis has seen the total go over the number in 21 of its last 33 off an upset win as an underdog, while Houston has seen the total go over the number in 25 of its last 35 following a divisional contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-23-17 | 76ers v. Pistons UNDER 214 | 97-86 | Win | 100 | 30 h 12 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick in my Superstar Triple Play is on the under 76ers/Pistons (7:05 EST). The 76ers are going to be pretty hungry here as they come into this one winless, looking to get off the schneid and break their 0-3 slide. Conversely, I think the Pistons come in a bit complacent after they just climbed back above .500 with a win against the Knicks on Saturday. So far Philadelphia has struggled on both sides of the ball, averaging just 100.3 PPG, while allowing 116.7. Jerryd Bayless averages 15.7 points, as does Ben Simmons. Big man Joel Embiid adds 14.5 points plus 13.5 boards per contest. Detroit also struggles offensively, averaging only 101.2 PPG. The Pistons have been better on the defensive end, ranked sixth overall in conceding 102.4 per game. Tobias Harris leads the way with 24.3 points and 6.3 boards per game, while Reggie Jackson addes 16.7 points and 6.7 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 19 of its last 34 following a divisional contest, while Detroit has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 21 home games. I think Detroit will look to “control” this one while on offense with a lot of half court sets, a tactic which I believe will help result in pushing this total under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Falcons v. Patriots OVER 54 | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 147 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the over Falcons/Patrios (8:30 EST). It’s a Super Bowl rematch and in my opinion, all signs point to a high-scoring shootout. The 3-2 Falcons will be desperate here. Not only to avenge last year’s epic loss in the Super Bowl, but also because of the fact that they’re coming off consecutive losses at the hands of Buffalo and Miami. Matt Ryan and Atlanta have looked brilliant at times this year and pretty pedestrian in others. After having a 17-0 halftime lead last weekend, the Dirty Birds were shutout in the second half to the Dolphins and eventually succumbed 20-17. It definitely felt like the second half of last year’s Super Bowl collapse and with that thought on their very front of their minds this weekend, I think we can expect to see the Falcons at their sharpest today. New England comes in off a harder than expected 24-17 win over the Jets last weekend. The Pats have so far been less than impressive offensively and they’ll also be looking for a breakout performance. Tom Brady absolutely decimated the Falcons’ suspect secondary in the Super Bowl and the legend does definitely look primed for another big performance this evening. So far Brady has 1,959 yards, 13 TD’s and two INT’s. I’ll point out that Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in six of its last 11 against teams with winning records, while New England has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 20 in the same position. All signs point to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Seahawks -5 v. Giants | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 143 h 51 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Seahawks (4:25 EST). The 3-2 Seattle Seahawks will look to take advantage of a depleted New York Giants team that could come in contented and flat-footed here after finally geting the monkey off its back in last week’s Sunday nighter. The Hawks went into their bye week off consecutive victories over the Colts and Rams, while the Giants got off the schneid with a victory in Denver this past weekend. Seattle has looked signficantly better after a shaky start to the season, but with an extra week to prepare for this one, I believe that Russell Wilson and company are going to have a big night. Wilson is a time management master and he’s going to be able to keep his offense on the field of play as long as possible today, so as to keep the Giants’ Eli Manning off of it. The Giants needed their defense to step up big last week and it did. Manning was adequate, but I think he’s going to struggle against the Seahawks elite defensive unit. New York has become completely one dimensional because of some key recent injuries and this is not a favorable defensive matchup for it whatsoever. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is interestingly 5-2 ATS in its last seven games played in the month of October, while New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a victory. The Giants won last week despite only posting 266 yards of offense. That’s simply not going to get it done against this rested/focused Seahawks side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Panthers -3 v. Bears | 3-17 | Loss | -120 | 148 h 58 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 7 Las Vegas Insider is on the Car panthers at 1;00 ET. The Panthers hosted the Eagles in Week 6's Thursday game in a showdown of two, 4-1 teams. Carolina came up on the short end of that one, as Carson Wentz out-played Newton, throwing three TD passes without an INT. Newton attempted 52 passes and had three INTs against just one TD. The Bears come in off a 27-24 OT win last Sunday at Baltimore, as Chicago's Mitchell Trubisky, the No. 2 overall pick in the 2017 NFL Draft, earned his first win as an NFL starter. Trubisky did nothing special, completing 8 of 16 passes for 113 yards but didn't throw an interception and had one TD pass. However, he also lost one of his two fumbles. Carolina takes its 4-2 record (good enough to lead the NFC South) to Soldier Field on Sunday, with Chicago coming in at 2-4 (Packers and Vikings lead the NFC North at 4-2, while the Lions are 3-3). The Panthers are typically successful when Newton has rushing stats like in Week 6 (11 carries for 71 yards) but the problem was the rest of the team's running attack was non-existent (just nine yard on 14 attempts!). Newton was off back-to-back outstanding efforts in road wins at New England (33-30) and Detroit (27-24), where he had completed 77.4% for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT. His effort against Philly was quite a come-down, going 28 of 52 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5. While Newton got no help from his RBs, Trubisky saw Jimmy Howard run for 167 yards, a the Bears ran for 231 yards as a team. However, don't expect a repeat effort here, as the Panthers rank 5th in the NFL in rush D, allowing 83.3 YPG. Overall, Carolina ranks 4th in total D (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG. Trubisky still has a lot to learn and he'll lead an offense averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and the Chicago D ranks 25th in points allowed (24.7 per), which won't make his job any easier. Two recent stats favor Carolina, as the Panthers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games following an ATS loss, while the Bears are 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win. Let me also add that Carolina is 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017. Newton out-played Brady in New England and coming off a loss (with some extra time to prepare off a Thursday night game in Week 6), my bet says he 'takes down' the rookie Trubisky (and the Bears), "with room to spare!' Good luck...Larry |
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10-22-17 | Saints -6 v. Packers | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 139 h 27 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New Orleans Saints (1:00 EST). The surging 3-2 New Orleans Saints are in Green Bay to take on the devastated 4-2 Packers this Sunday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. I had a play on New Orleans as my “Las Vegas Insider” last weekend it went on to annihilate Detroit 52-38. Green Bay comes in off a crushing 23-10 loss at Minnesota last weekend, losing Pro Bowl QB Aaron Rodgers to injury in the process. New Orleans so far averages 29.0 PPG, ranked fourth in the league. Defensively the Saints aren’t great, ranked 21st in conceding 23.2 PPG. However, compared to last season’s dumpster fire of a defense, New Orleans looks markedly improved this year on that side of the ball (sacked Matt Stafford five times.) QB Drew Brees was 21 of 31 for 186 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. So far he has 1,321 yards, ten TD’s and two INT’s on the year. Green Bay is ranked tenth in scoring with 24.5 PPG, but with Rodgers out, that stat is meaningless now. The defense has been middle of the pack, ranked 18th in allowing 22.5 PPG. I’ll point out that New Orleans is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while Green Bay is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight-up loss. Brett Hundley is not going to be able to keep pace with Brees today, who will smell the blood in the water and who will put the foot on the gas early to try and deliver the knock out blow. I don’t think the Green Bay defense will be up to the task of slowing down the Saints’ veteran pivot. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-22-17 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Rams | 0-33 | Loss | -107 | 139 h 26 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Cardinals (1:00 EST). The 3-3 Arizona Cardinals are in LA to take on the 4-2 division rival Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Last weekend Cards’ RB Adrian Peterson rushed for 134 yards and two TD’s on 26 carries in Arizona’s 38-33 win over Tampa Bay. QB Carson Palmer looked much better and he’ll now look to take advantage of this suspect Rams’ secondary. The Rams stumbled out of the gate against the Jaguars last weekend, but recovered in the second half for an impressive victory of their own. But strictly from a trend based stand-point, there’s no question that this one heavily favors the visitors today, as Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while the Rams are a brutal 0-5 ATS in their last five against the NFC West. This one has the feel of whichever team has the ball in its hands last will find a way to win this game. And in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to the underdog. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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10-21-17 | Fresno State v. San Diego State OVER 46 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* CFB Week 8 Goin' Over Total is on Fresno State/San Diego St Over at 10:30 ET. San Diego St welcomed Boise State to Qualcomm Stadium last Saturday night, riding high with a 6-0 overall record and a ranking of No. 19 in the latest AP poll. However, the Aztecs' star RB Rashaad Penny was completely shackled by Boise St's defense, getting held to 53 yards on 21 carries for 53 yards. That exposed QB Christian Chapman's limitations and he completed just 12-of-27 passes. The Broncos took a 21-0 lead at the half and eased to a 31-14 win. That hissing sound you heard late Saturday night on the West Coast was all the air coming out of SDSU's 'balloon,' as the Aztecs' hopes for New Year’s Six bowl almost surely squashed. To add insult ton injury, the aztecs welcome Fresno St to "The Q" tonight, "looking up" at the Bulldogs in the MWC's West Division. Fresno St, coming off an 1-11 season is 2016, checks in at 4-2 overall but 3-0 in MWC play (SDSU is 2-1). Jeff Tedford (you may remember him from his days at Cal?) is in his first season at Fresno. No one expected FSU to compete against Alabama or Washington but let's note that the Bulldogs did cover both games, as HUGE underdogs. However, let me add that in the team's other four games (all wins), FSU has averaged 42.0 PPG, after a shocking 34-0 win last Saturday over New Mexico, who was coming off a 56-point effort against Air Force.. It sure looks as if Tedford has found himself a QB in Oregon State transfer Marcus McMaryion. He's taken over the starting QB in Fresno's three-game winning streak, throwing five TD passes and just one interception. He did';t do much in the team's win over San Joe St (led 21-0 at the half and won 27-10) but he threw for 296 yards in leading the Bulldogs to 41 points against Nevada and had 296 yards and three TDs against New Mexico, leading FSU to 526 total yards. However, Fresno St will face an angry SDSU team in this one. Penny is off an awful effort but he's stud, rushing for 1,046 yards on 6.4 YPC with 10 TDs. As for QB Chapman, he is no star but he's more than capable and note that while he completed only 12 passes last week, those complations totaled 240 yards (impressive). The Aztecs will play with purpose in this one and to stay close, McMaryion and the Bulldogs will have to "trade scores." This one is Goin' Over. Good luck...Larry |
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10-21-17 | Mavs v. Rockets -12 | 91-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). Chris Paul is out for the Rockets for 2 to 4 weeks, but I don’t think that’s going to matter in the end. The Mavs look horrible, losing their opener 117-111 at home and then falling 93-88 to the Kings as a 6 point favorite just last night. Houston has won two in a row after beating Sacramento 105-100 on Wednesday. And if recent history is any precedence, then the home side has to be liking its chances tonight, as the Rockets would go on to take all four games in the series last season. Depth seems to be a major issue early in Dallas and the second game of a back-to-back doesn’t bode well for Dirk Nowitzki and company (note that the Mavs are a poor 6-11 ATS in their last 17 off an upset loss as a favorite.) Houston knocked off Golden State by 1 point on Opening Night and then battled from behind to beat Sacramento as well. So far the Rockets have averaged 113.5 PPG, while allowing 110.5. James Harden led the way last year and so far this season he’s also leading the team with 27 points, 4.5 board and 9.5 assists per night. Note that the Rockets hit 27 of 29 free throws in the victory over the Kings as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Dallas is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven against the Western Conference, while Houston is 3-1 ATS in its last four when playing on two dasy of rest. I like Harden to push the pace from start to finish and for the home side to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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