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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-06-17 | Marlins v. Nationals -155 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -155 | 26 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST). Washington came roaring back to win 6-4 yesterday and I think it’ll once again post a convincing victory in the finale of this three game set. The Nats also came from behind to take Game 1, 4-2. Things won’t get any easier for the Fish today either with Tom Koehler on the mound, he was 9-13 with pedestrian 4.33 ERA in 33 starts last year, including a poor 5-6 with a 4.48 EA on the road. Koehler has been at his worst as well whenver he’s faced the Nationals, going 4-8 with a 4.60 ERA in 14 starts, which includes a deplorable 1-5, 5.73 ERA record in eight outings at Nationals Park. Many feel the window of opportunity is now closing quickly for the Nationals, as their superstars aren’t get any younger and also other various contract issues which the team will have to deal with shortly. The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez, who was 11-11 with a 4.57 ERA in 32 starts last year, including 7-5 with a 4.45 ERA in 16 starts at home. Gonzalez though has to be feeling pretty confident today as he’s dominated the Marlins throughout his career, going 6-2 with a 2.21 ERA in 11 starts against them. Also note that he’s 33-20 with a 3.29 ERA in 73 career starts at Nationals Park. I’ll point out that Miami is a horrible 20-43 in Koehler’s last 63 starts against a team with a winning record, while Washington is 14-6 in its last 20 home games against right-handed starters. Washington is 5-0 in its last five at home with Gonzalez on the mound against Miami and all signs point to another victory here. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-06-17 | Phillies v. Reds -105 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* GETAWAY DAY SIDE OF THE MONTH is on the Cincinnati Reds (12:35 EST). The Phillies end their opening season series with the Reds on Thursday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Philadelphia sends veteran Clay Buchholz to the hill, last year he’d finish 8-10 with a 4.78 ERA. Buchholz has had an atrocious spring, most recently getting shelled for three runs off five hits and four walks over 3.1 innings to the Pirates on Sunday, finishing with a 5.94 ERA and 1.68 WHIP in March. The home side counters with rookie Rookie Davis (yes you read that right). The 6 foot 5, 255 pound hurler made the opening day roster after finishing the warm-up period with a solid 4.02 ERA and 1.21 WHIP with a 17:3 K:BB ratio over 15.2 innings of work. This start means the World to Davis, so we definitely have nothing to worry about as far his effort and focus here. And for me, that’s going to be more than enough, as I have zero faith in Buchholz and expect him to struggle this season. Great price on the home side in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-17 | Giants v. Diamondbacks +105 | Top | 6-8 | Win | 105 | 28 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). I had a play on San Francisco last night, but this evening I’m going the other way as I think the Taijuan Walker is flying under the radar here after a strong spring. Walker came over from Seattle in a trade for second baseman Jean Segura. Walker was 8-11 with a 4.22 ERA last year, but he was dominant through his spring warm up, with his fast-ball reaching almost 100 MPH. Matt Moore was 7-5 with a 4.08 ERA in his starts for San Francisco last year. Moore was consistently inconsistent on the road though, going just 4-7 with a poor 5.02 ERA away from friendly confines (was also just 4-9 with a 5.03 ERA in all “night” games). One other player to keep your eyes on today is Arizona slugger Paul Goldschmidt, who had a homer yesterday and who needs one more hit for 848 for his career, which would move him past Steve Finley for No. 2 on the D-Backs hit list. I think Walker is the correct call here, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-17 | Indians v. Rangers -101 | 9-6 | Loss | -101 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). For 7/8th’s of his season last year, Cole Hamels looked great for Texas. But the veteran southpaw would post a poor 6.75 ERA over his final six starts and was blasted by the Jays in his lone playoff outing. Hamels though comes in off a great spring, giving up just one run over his last 11 Cactus League innings. Both he and the Rangers will be trying hard to avoid going 0-3 to open the season. The visitors counter with Danny Salazar, who also had a great first half in 2016, but was then hampered with right elbow discomfort down the stretch. Salazar looked decent in Spring as well, striking out 37 batters over 26 innings of work. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is just 19-24 (-2.9 units) in its last 43 as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range, while Texas is 30-17 (+10.9 units) in its last 47 as a home fav in the -100 to -125 range. I’ll call these starters a “wash,” but think the desperate Rangers offer great value in this spot as they play hard and finally get off the schneid. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-17 | Cavs +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 114-91 | Win | 100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST). The 49-27 Cavaliers are in Boston to take on the 50-27 Celtics and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. This is the biggest regular season game for both teams so far as first place is up for grabs in the Eastern Conference. Boston won its second straight and sixth in its last seven with a 110-94 victory over New York on Sunday, while Cleveland cruised to a 122-102 win over Orlando at home last night. The Cavs have taken two of three so far this year, but it was the C’s which won 103-99 at home in the latest on March 1st. Cleveland has now won three straight. It averages 110.3 PPG and concedes 107. LeBron James leads the nightly charge with 26.3 points, 8.5 boards and 8.7 assists per game. Note that the Cavs are second in the NBA in made threes with 13 triples a game. Boston averages 107.8 PPG and concedes 105.1. Isaiah Thomas averages 29.1 points and 5.9 assists per game. Boston is ranked fourth in three points with 11.9 per contest. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 12-9 ATS this season following a win by ten points or more, while Boston is just 11-15 ATS this year against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest (also only 5-9 ATS following a win by ten points or more). For many, the Cavaliers playing the Warriors this year was the “biggest” regular season game. Perhaps the Warriors and Durant against the Thunder as well. However, this is the biggest game in terms of it actually meaning something for the postseason. That means that it’s “go” time for James and company. I look for the defending champs to put on a show tonight and at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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04-05-17 | Royals -113 v. Twins | 1-9 | Loss | -113 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Domiantor is on the Kansas City Royals (1:10 EST). The 0-1 KC Royals are in Minnesota to take on the 1-0 Twins on Wedneday afternoon and I think this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. And that’s because I think Ian Kennedy is being severely undervalued by the oddsmakers here. Kennedy was 11-11 with a 3.68 ERA last year. Kennedy, like the rest of the starting rotation, didn’t get a ton of support last season, so his record isn’t entirely indicative of how well the veteran performed. He was good and that was carried over this spring where he would give up zero earned runs over 17.1 innings spanning four Cactus League starts, striking out 19 while giving up nine hits and three walks. Note that Kennedy was particularly effective in all “day” games as well last season, going 5-2 with a very respectable 3.00 ERA. The home side counters with Hector Santiago and he was 13-10 with a 4.70 ERA in 33 starts between the Angels and Twins last year. That included going 1-4 with an atrocious 6.75 ERA in six starts at Target Field. I’ll point out that KC is 4-1 in ist last five road games against a left-handed starter, while Minnesota is just 4-18 in its last 22 after scoring five runs or more in its previous game. Kennedy is 4-1 in his career against Minnesota, while Santiago is just 2-3 in his career against the Royals. Look for KC to bounce back after the opening day loss. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Oilers v. Kings -117 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 31 h 48 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Kings (10:30 EST). The 44-25-9 Edmonton Oilers are in LA to take on the 37-34-7 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I believe the Oilers will finally have a letdown here after winning five games in a row, most recently defeating Anaheim in OT this past Saturday. LA looks to get back on track, it had won two straight before an embarrasing loss to Arizona this past Sunday which officially eliminated the team from postseason contention. The Kings play with revenge here though after falling to the Oilers 2-1 last Tuesday. LA will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after a disappointing season: “With the amount of power plays we had in the third period, we should have finished them,” Kings’ captain Anze Kopitar lamented after the loss to the Coyotes. “It’s not good enough to score one goal at home, but that’s been the story of the whole season. It’s a very empty feeling and a very sour taste.” Edmonton will be looking to escape without any significant injuries as it has its sights set on the playoffs now. Play on the Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Flames v. Ducks -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 18 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:00 EST). The 44-31-4 Calgary Flames are in Anaheim to take on the 43-23-13 Ducks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. These teams met three nights ago and the Ducks won 4-3 on the road. Anaheim has now won six of its last eight, while Calgary has dropped two of its last three after clinching a playoff spot. The Ducks outshot the Flames 34 to 21 and won the face-off battle 31 to 25. Anaheim is getting massive production up and down its line-up right now, as Corey Perry has produced seven goals in March and has four goals and an assist in his last six games. The Ducks are steam rolling towards the playoffs, having now gone 10-1-3 in their last 14. And I’ll point out that Calgary is just 2-9 in its last 11 in the second game of a home-and-home situation, while Anaheim is 6-2 in its last eight against the Western conference. The Flames are in cruise control now and I think the Ducks can smell the blood in the water. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Giants -147 v. Diamondbacks | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (9:40 EST). This is the second game of a four game series. San Francisco sends Johnny Cueto to the hill and Arizona counters with Patrick Corbin. The Diamondbacks would pull away for a 6-5 win in Game 1, but if history is any precedence, then the Giants have to be liking their chances for a bounce back tonight as they won the season series with the D-Backs 13-6 last year. Cueto was 18-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.17 WHIP last season. He was 3-2 with a 4.13 ERA against Arizona. He comes in off a strong spring in which he conceded just two runs in 12 innings of work. Corbin didn’t fare as well in 2016, going 5-13 with a 5.15 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. Corbin though had a decent spring, allowing seven earned runs over 18.1 innings of work. He’s also been “ok” against San Francisco throughout his career, posting a 3.46 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. San Francsico pitcher Madison Bumgarner hit two home runs in the first game and it still wasn’t enough, but this time around I feel that the talent discrepancy on the mound does absolutely justify in laying what I do feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price. Play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Mariners +121 v. Astros | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 24 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Seattle Mariners (8:10 EST). The Mariners look to bounce back here after falling 3-0 in the opener as “ace” Felix Hernandez lost to Houston’s top guy Dallas Keuchel. The M’s fell three games shy of a playoff spot last year, due mostly to a slow start at the beginning. The team will look to avoid the same fate this season and notch its first victory of the year with Hisashi Iwakuma on the hill. Iwakuma was 16-12 with a 4.12 ERA and 1.327 WHIP last year. Iwakma is 3-3 with a respectable 3.26 ERA and 1.34 WHIP in eight starts at Minute Maid Park. Houston counters with Lance McCullers, who was 6-5 with a 3.22 ERA and 1.543 WHIP over 81 innings last season. McCullers has looked brilliant at times and pretty pedestrian in others. He’s still only 22 years old and has just 36 major league starts to his name. McCullers has had success against the Mariners in the past, but I think he’ll have his hands full today with this revenge minded Seattle team which will be eager to atone for the “goose egg” it laid yesterday. Like the Mariners, Iwakuma got off to a slow start last year. I like the veteran to come out strong in the opener and get the better of his young counterpart. Great dog play on Seattle. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Nuggets v. Pelicans UNDER 228 | Top | 134-131 | Loss | -105 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Nuggets/Pelicans (8:05 EST). The 36-40 Denver Nuggets are in New Orleans to take on the 33-44 Pelicans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Eighth spot in the East is still up for grabs. Denver sits two games back of Portland and New Orleans sits 2.5 back. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting these teams to body up and play some tougher defense with so much on the line. Denver comes in off a 116-113 win over Miami on Sunday, snapping a three-game losing streak. New Orleans is on the verge of elimination after falling 117-110 to the Bulls on Sunday. Denver loves to push the pace and is one of the highest scoring teams in the nation, but note that the Nuggets have in fact seen the total go under the number in eight of 14 this year off an upset win as an underdog. And note that New Orleans has seen the total dip below the posted number in 15 of 21 this year after allowing 115 points or more. Anthony Davis is questionable for this one, which doesn’t bode well for the Pels. When you add it all up, I think this number is just a tiny bit high. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Magic v. Cavs UNDER 221.5 | 102-122 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Magic/Cavaliers (7:05 EST). The 27-50 Orlando Magic are in Cleveland to take on the 49-27 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Magic are going through the motions at this point and enter off a fourth straight loss, this time a 121-111 road setback to Brooklyln on Saturday. The Cavs come in off a second straight win, but will look to manage the pace of this one after their epic 135-130 double OT victory over the Pacers on Sunday. Cleveland has to be liking its chances today as well as it’s won 16 straight in the series. That doesn’t bode well for a Magic team that is 27th in the league in scoring with an average of just 100.9 PPG. Cleveland has a big game in Boston up next, so could also be caught “looking ahead” here. From a situational stand point, this one sets up great for a lower-scoring affair, but also note that the under has gone 5-1 in the Magic’s last six against the Central division, while the Cavaliers have seen the total go under in three of their last four after giving up 130 points or more. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Hornets v. Wizards UNDER 217.5 | 111-118 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 20 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Hornets/Wizards (7:05 EST). The 36-41 Charlotte Hornets are in Washington to take on the 46-31 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Charlotte still has a mathematical shot at the playoffs and comes in with some momentum, having won three straight and seven of nine, most recently a 113-101 victory over OKC on Sunday. The Wizards are already in the playoffs, but they’ll be looking to get back on track after dropping three straight, most recently a 139-115 setback at Golden State on Sunday. Washington has won two of three against the Hornets this year, but it was Charlotte that scored the 98-93 win at home in the last matchup on March 18th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score tonight as well. The Hornets average 105.5 PPG and concede 104.4. Kemba Walker leads the way with 23.1 points and 5.5 assists per game. The Wizards average 109.3 PPG and concede 107.5. John Wall leads all scorers with 23.2 points, 10.7 assists and 1.97 steals per game. I’ll point out though that Charlotte has seen the total go under the number in nine of 13 against the division this year, while Washignton has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four divisional contests as well. All signs point to a lower-scoring affair in my opinion, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Flyers -125 v. Devils | 0-1 | Loss | -125 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:00 EST). The 38-33-4-4 Flyers are in New Jersey to take on the 27-37-11-3 Devils and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Philadelphia comes to town off a 4-3 home loss to the Islanders, but it’s still won four of its last five. New Jersey enters off a 3-0 loss at Philadelphia and it’s now lost six in a row. Both teams are now playing out the end of their respective seasons, as each will miss the playoffs. Steve Mason is expected in net for the Flyers, he’s 25-28 with a 2.71 GAA on the year, including 9-18 with a respectable 2.94 GAA on the road. Cory Schneider will get the call in net for the Devils, he’s 20-36 with a 2.72 GAA on the season. Schneider has been decent, but the Flyers get the big nod on the offensive end of the ice. I’ll also point out that the Philadelphia is 4-1 in its last five in the fourth game of a 4-in-6 situation and 7-3 in its last ten against teams with losing records, while New Jersey is a poor 2-10 in its last 12 against the Metropolitan. Philadelphia looks to take out its frustrations today and end the season strong. Good luck…Larry |
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04-04-17 | Yankees v. Rays -115 | 5-0 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 15 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST). I played the Rays in Game 1 on Sunday and I feel that Jake Odorizzi and the home side offer great value this evening as well. Tampa took that contest 7-3. Sending volatile veteran CC Sabathia to the hill is likely not what the doctor ordered to get back into the winners circle though for New York as he was a poor 9-12 with a pedestrian 3.91 ERA in 30 starts last season. Note that in 41 career starts against Tampa Bay, Sabathia has gone 14-14 with a 3.83 ERA. The home side counters with Odorizzi, who was 10-6 witha 3.69 ERA spanning 33 starts last year. Odorizzi was solid at home, going 5-4 with a 3.55 ERA. In 12 appearances against the Yanks, he’s gone 5-5 with a 4.26 ERA. Both teams were poor offensively last year, ranking in the bottom third in production. New York ace Masahiro Tanaka had a great spring, but the Rays destroyed the hard-throwing japanese hurler. Suffice it to say, I think more of the same is in store for Sabathia tonight. Look for Tampa to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night as I look for Odorizzi to outduel his aging counterpart. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-17 | North Carolina v. Gonzaga +1.5 | Top | 71-65 | Loss | -104 | 37 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NAT CHAMP GAME SIDE WINNER is on Gonzaga (9:20 EST). Arguably the two best teams in the nation collide on Monday night and as you can tell, the oddsmakers feel that they’re pretty evenly matched. However, I don’t. I think the Bulldogs superior defensive play will turn out to be the difference this evening. Keep your eyes on Nigel Williams-Goss for Gonzaga, he’s averaged 16.7 points, 5.9 rebounds and 4.6 assists this season. The Bulldogs have two seven footers on their team as well, including the giant Przemek Kanowski, who averages 12.2 points and 5.8 boards per game. Justin Jackson leads the charge for the high-flying tar Heels with 18.2 points and 4.7 boards per game. Also in double figures are Joel Berry II (14.5) and Kennedy Meeks (12.3 points and 9.3 boards per contest). I’ll point out though that Gonzaga is 9-2-1 ATS in its last 12 following an ATS loss, while UNC is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory. Ultimately I think it will be the Bulldogs’ size and defense which turns out to be the difference in the National Championship game. Play on Gonzaga. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-17 | Indians v. Rangers -121 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -121 | 57 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (7:05 EST). A couple of hard-hitting clubs face off against a couple of pitchers which have looked brilliant at times and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Yu Darvish and the home side. Corey Kluber gets the call for the Indians, he started slowly last year, but finished strong with an 18-9, 3.14 ERA. Darvish didn’t come into the 2016 season until after the All Star break, but returned to post a 3.41 ERA and a 132:31 K:BB ratio spanning 17 games. He had a solid spring and looks poised to return to his pre-injury levels of play. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is in fact just 19-24 (-2.9 units) in its last 43 as a road dog in the +100 to +125 range, while Texas is 30-17 (+10.9 units) in its last 47 as a home fav in the -100 to -125 range. It’s going to take some time for the new faces for the Tribe, like Edwin Encarnacion, to start to mix well with their new team, I think the scales are indeed tipped in the Rangers favor in this one. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-17 | Royals v. Twins UNDER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situatinal Stunner is on the under Royals/Twins (4:10 EST). The Royals send Danny Duffy to the hill, he’s coming off a breakout campaign in 2016 in which he went 12-3 with a 3.51 ERA. He would also post a career-best 9.4 K/9 ratio. Duffy was tough both at home and on the road, but he was particularly effective in all “day” games, going a perfect 3-0 with a tiny 1.85 ERA. The home side counters with Ervin Santana, who was 7-11 with a 3.38 ERA last season. Santana, like the rest of the Twins rotation got little help offensively last year. And note, like his counterpart, Santana was routinely at his best in all “day” contests, posting a very respectable 2.89 ERA in eight such instances. The Royals will be leaning heavily on their starting pitching this year as the line-up is thin. The Twins were one of the worst offensive teams in the league and they draw a tough first assignment on Monday afternoon. I’m expecting these starting pitchers to duel deep and for this one to indeed fall under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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04-03-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -102 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 53 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Baltimore Orioles (3:05 EST). Marco Estrada and the Toronto Blue Jays get ready to battle the Baltimore Orioles in in these team’s respective openers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Estrada was 9-9 with a 3.48 ERA last season. He’s posted back-to-back sub-3.50 ERA’s for Toronto, but certainly he hasn’t been its best pitcher. Surely Aaron Sanchez, Marcus Stroman and JA Happ all could have been better choices to open the season. Estrada actually posted a better road ERA than at home last year, but I think this is a tough opening matchup for the veteran. The Orioles counter with Kevin Gausman, who was 9-12 with a 3.61 ERA last year. Gausman has worked hard on his slider and curveball in the offseason and many believe he’s primed for a break out performance in 2017. Note that he was particularly effective at home last year as well, going 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA (was also 3-0 with a 2.61 ERA in all “day” games). These teams finished with identical records last season and it was Toronto that ousted Baltimore in the AL Wild Card playoff game. Suffice it to say, I think it’s “pay back” time! Finally note that the Orioles are 7-1 in their last eight home starts with Gausman on the hill. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-17 | Cubs -123 v. Cardinals | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -123 | 37 h 3 m | Show |
My 10* NL SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Chicago Cubs (8:35 EST). The defending champs are in St. Louis to open the season and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cubs. The Cubs won their first World Series in 108 years last season, winning 8-7 in ten innings in Game 7, while the Cards finished second overall in the NL Central and would go on to miss the postseason. Chicago has to be liking it chances in this one, it won the season series against St. Louis 10-9 last year, including six victories out of nine played at Busch Stadium. Jon Lester gets the nod for the visitors, he’d finish 19-5 with a 2.44 ERA over 202.2 innings in 2016. Lester is 3-3 with a 1.97 ERA and 0.994 WHIP with 58 K’s in 59.1 innings of work lifetime against the Cards. Lester was especially strong against St. Louis last season, going 2-0 with a 0.82 ERA and 0.727 WHIP in three starts at Busch Stadium. The Cards rotation is in a bit of a flux to open the year, so they’ll send Carlos Martinez to counter. Martinez finished 16-9 with a 3.04 ERA and 1.224 WHIP in 2016. Martinez has not fared well against the Cubs in the past, going just 1-3 with a 4.80 ERA and 1.433 WHIP over 30 innings spanning five starts against them last season. I’ll point out that Chicago is 5-1 in its last six road games and 14-3 in Lester’s last 17 starts in Game 1 of a series, while St. Louis is just 3-11 in its last 14 home games against left-handers. Lester has dominated the Cardinals throughout his career and the Cubbies have the core of their defense intact which allowed a league low 556 runs last year. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value on the better team. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-17 | Pacers v. Cavs UNDER 214 | Top | 130-135 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Pacers/Cavaliers (6:05 EST). The 37-38 Indiana Pacers are in Cleveland to take on the 47-27 Cavaliers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. This is a big game for both teams. Cleveland had lost three straight before beating the 76ers 122-105 on Friday, but still sits behind Boston for the No. 1 seed in the East. Indiana holds the final playoff spot in the East, but the Bulls are only a half game behind it. The Pacers have also dropped three straight and will be looking to improve dramatically on the defensive side after losing 111-110 to the Raptors on Sunday after going into the half with a lead. A date against the struggling Cavaliers could be exactly what the doctor ordered for Indiana though as Cleveland has averaged just 94 points during its losing streak. And I’ll point out that Indiana has seen the total go under the number in 21 of 38 this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of 22 this season following a win by ten points or more. This is the Cavs third game in four days, so I expect the home side to control the pace of this one as it looks to avoid getting into a “track meet” with hungry Pacers. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-17 | Predators v. Blues OVER 5 | Top | 1-4 | Push | 0 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is the over Predators/Blues (4:05 EST). The 39-27-7-4 Nashville Predators are in St. Louis to take on the 42-28-5-2 Blues and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. Nashville lost 3-1 to Toronto before then bouncing back with a 3-0 afternoon win over the Wild at home on Saturday. St. Louis looks to get back into the winners circle after a humbling 2-1 shootout loss to the lowly Avs on Friday night. The Blues also play with revenge here, as Nashville has taken three of four in the season series this year. Nashville allows 2.7 GPG, ranked 15th overall and averages 2.9, which ranks ninth. St. Louis allows 2.6 and averages 2.8, ranked fourth in the league. I’ll point out that Nashville has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing, while St. Louis has seen the total sail above the posted number in two of its last three after scoring one goal or less. I think each team will have its chances here and look for this total to indeed fly over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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04-02-17 | Yankees v. Rays -103 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 30 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Tampa Bay Rays (1:10 EST). The New York Yankees are in Tampa Bay on Monday afternoon in these division rivals’ respective series openers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Each team sends its respective ace to the mound. The Yanks turn to Masahiro Tanaka who was 3-1 with a 0.38 ERA in 23.2 innings in spring training. He’s been awesome against the Rays throughout his career as well, going 6-0 with a 2.82 ERA. Last year New York averaged 4.20 RPG, which ranked it 22nd overall. The Rays counters with Chris Archer, who also comes in off a sparkling spring, posting 17 K’s in 13.2 innings with a 1.98 ERA. Like his counterpart, he’s also had tremendous success against his opponent today, owner of a 2.63 ERA along with a 0.92 WHIP lifetime against the Yanks. Tampa averaged 4.15 RPG last season, ranked 24th. Archer struggled to open the 2016 campaign and while he’d recover and finish with an overall decent ERA and WHIP, he was never really able to shake the slow start. A year later and the Rays’ ace looks fully prepared to open the season on a high note. Tanaka is going to have another big year, but I think these starters a “wash.” I’ll give the slight nod to the hungry Rays with their home field advantage. Play on Tampa Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-17 | Oregon v. North Carolina OVER 150 | Top | 76-77 | Win | 100 | 145 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is the over Oregon/North Carolina (8:45 EST). Oregon gets ready to battle North Carolina in the Final Four on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. The Ducks beat Iona, Rhode Island, Michigan and then a 74-60 blowout of Kansas in the Elite Eight. UNC would advance by besting Texas Southern, Arkansas, Butler and then a thrilling 75-73 victory over Kentucky last weekend. Luke Maye hit a game winner with 0.3 seconds left. Both teams come into this one “firing on all cylinders.” I’m expecting a quick start to this one, with no “feeling out” period whatsoever. So with each pushing the pace from start to finish, all signs point to this one eclipsing the number as it comes down the stretch. Oregon looked dominant in its victory over the Jayhawks, especially Jordan Bell who finished with eight blocks. UNC out rebounded the Wildcats 44-34 last weekend and it will look to rule the glass in this one as well, one area in which it has a significant advantage over its opponent. I’ll point out that Oregon has seen the total go over the number in three of its last four after holding its previous opponent to 60 points or less, while UNC has seen the total sail above the posted number in two of its last three after scoring 75 points or less. Oregon will need to stretch the UNC defense if it has any shot at pulling off the outright upset and that means shooting a lot from the outside. UNC is the highest scoring team in the nation and will be looking to do what it does best and that’s getting out and pushing the pace from start to finish. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-17 | Maple Leafs -136 v. Red Wings | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Toronto Maple Leafs (7:05 EST). The 37-24-7-8 Toronto Maple Leafs are in Detroit to take on the 31-34-12-0 Wings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Wings are toast, their season is done and they’ll miss the playoffs for the first time since the early 90’s. Toronto is surging, it’s headed to the postseason and comes in off a 3-1 win over the Predators, its fifth victory in its last six outings. The Leafs scored twice on the power play in the win over Nashville and they own the second best PP in the league at 23.9 percent. Frederik Andersen is 9-2-1 in his last ten and 4-0-0 with a tiny 1.97 GAA against Detroit. Detroit is “gassed.” Its 5-3 loss at Tampa on Thursday was ifs fourth game in the last five days and fifth in the past seven. Note that the Wings are 28th on the power play this year, with a 14.4 percent success rate. I’ll point out that the Leafs are 5-1 in their last six against the Eastern Conference, while the Wings are just 3-9 in their last 12 when playing on one days rest. I think Toronto could easily be favored by more here, play on the Leafs. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-17 | South Carolina v. Gonzaga -6.5 | Top | 73-77 | Loss | -105 | 143 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH is on Gonzaga (6:05 EST). The South Carolina Gamecocks and Gonzaga Bulldogs are in unchartered territory right now. The Gamecocks knocked off Florida 77-70 to advance, while the Bulldogs smashed Xavier 83-59 last Saturday. South Carolina is in over its head here in my opinion. So far the Gamecocks have trailed three times in four games in this tournament, only to rally and win the contest with a big second half. South Carolina would shoot 49.1 percent from the floor in the win over Florida, despite going just 2 of 10 from range. Sindarius Thornwell was a standout with 26 points and seven boards. Overall though the Gamecocks are nothing special offensively, they average 73.2 PPG. But they make up for it on the defensive end though, conceding only 64.9 PPG, ranked 31st in the nation. The Bulldogs limited the Musketeers to just 20 second half points last weekend, while also going on to hit 47.5 percent from the floor themselves, including knocking down 12 of 24 from range. Xavier was held to just 2 of 16 from behind the arc. Nigel Williams-Goss led Gonzaga with 23 points and eight boards. The Bulldogs are 14th in the country in scoring with 83.2 PPG, while ranked fourth on the defensive end in conceding just 60.9. I think ATS stats are pretty meaningless at this point and as these teams have no real prior history against each other, this particular selection is based primarily on the situation. I think the over-achieving Gamecock’s Cindarella run comes to an end here. Gonzaga is very well coached under Frank Martin and has vastly more experience in its line-up, something that can’t be overlooked whatsoever at this point of the tournament. The Bulldogs are superior on both sides of the ball and in my opinion, this spread should in fact be a lot larger. And that’s why Gonzaga is my April CBB Game Of The Month. Good luck…Larry |
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04-01-17 | Lakers v. Clippers UNDER 225.5 | Top | 104-115 | Win | 100 | 23 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the under Lakers/Clippers (3:35 EST). The 21-54 LA Lakers are get ready to battle the 46-31 Clippers on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I expect this total to fall below this sky-high number. The Lakers come in off a third straight loss and 17th in their last 19 after a 119-104 road loss to the Wolves on Thursday. The Clippers come in off a 124-118 road win over the Suns, their sixth win in their last eight games. The Clippers have won 13 of the last 14 in the series, including a 133-109 victory in the last contest on March 21st. These teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late and also against each other, but I think the situation now finally lends itself to a more defensive affair. Clearly the Lakers are just going through the motions at this point of the season, the starters will look to avoid injury and the team is hoping for a top draft choice. The Clippers though have a lot to play for still, they currently sit in fifth in the West and would love nothing more than to leap frog the Jazz so as to ensure home court advantage in the first round. I’ll point out that the Lakers have seen the total go under the number in three of their last four against the division, while the Clippers have seen the total dip below the posted number in three of their last four as the home team. I don’t think the Clippers want to turn this into a “track meet,” instead I expect them to control the tempo and look for this total to fall below the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-17 | Pacers +7 v. Raptors | Top | 100-111 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Indiana Pacers (7:05 EST). The 37-38 Indiana Pacers are in Toronto to take on the 45-30 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Pacers come in desperate here, they lost for the fourth time in five games in a 110-97 road defeat in Memphis on Wednesday. Toronto looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion after it had its six game win streak snapped in a 110-106 home loss to Charlotte. Momentum is difficult to attain and once lost, it’s sometimes even more difficult to get back. Also note, to say this is a “revenge” game would be a bit of an understatement I think as Toronto has taken three straight and eight of the last nine in the series, including a 116-91 victory at home in the first matchup of the year on March 19th. Indiana is in eighth spot in the East and will be desperate here as it looks to break the slide of poor play. Indiana averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 105.4. Paul George leads the nightly charge with 22.8 points plus 6.4 boards per game. The Raptors average 107.2 PPG and concede 103. DeMar DeRozan leads everyone with 27.2 points and 5.3 boards per contest. I’ll point out though that Indiana is 11-6 ATS this year following a loss by ten points or more, while Toronto is just 1-2 ATS in its last three off an upset loss as a favorite. I think the “hungrier” team is the way to go in this one and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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03-31-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Wyoming OVER 153 | Top | 59-83 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* CBI Championship Game 3 TOP PLAY is on the over (7:00 EST). I made a play on Wyoming in Game 2 of the CBI Championship and the Cowboys would go on to wallop the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers 81-57. Coastal Carolina won the first game 91-81 though, which sets the stage for a dramatic, winner takes all Game 3 for the 2016/17 CBI Tournament Championship on Friday night. I think we’re going to a similar shootout as to what we saw in the Chanticleers Game 1 victory. Coastal Carolina averages and concedes 73 PPG. Wyoming averages 77.8 PPG and allows 75. Neither of these teams is great on the defensive end and note that the Chanticleers have in fact seen the total go over the number in all three road games this year when the total in the contest was set between 150 and 154.5 and in five of six this season after scoring 60 points or less, while the Cowboys have seen the total sail above the posted number in three of four this year after allowing 60 points or less and in two of their last three at home. The Chanticleers have struggled to guard the three ball, as Wyoming hit 13 three’s in Game 1 and 12 in Game 2. Look for each team to get out and push the pace and for this one to indeed eclipse the number as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-17 | Sharks v. Oilers -128 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Edmonton Oilers (9:05 EST). The Sharks got off the schneid with a 5-4 OT win over the Rangers on Tuesday, breaking a string of six straight losses. Despite its recent slide, San Jose is not in any trouble of missing the postseason, currently sitting in fourth. The Oilers come in having won three straight, currently sitting in fifth. Clearly Edmonton would love to leap-frog the Sharks for fourth spot so as to ensure home ice in the first round of the playoffs. And with a game tomorrow night in Calgary, it’s definitely not to difficult to imagine San Jose getting caught “looking ahead” here as well. It’s a perfect set of situational circumstances working in favor of the surging home side, but also note that San Jose is in fact just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three after scoring five goals or more, while Edmonton is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three after a three games or longer unbeaten streak. All things considered, I think we’re getting a very fair price in this one, play on the Oilers. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-17 | Cavs -6 v. Bulls | Top | 93-99 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:05 EST). The 47-26 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Chicago to take on the 35-39 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. It’s going to be all hands on deck for the Cavs today, they’ve lost four of their last six, most recently a humbling 103-74 road loss in San Antonio on Monday. With two extra days off between games and after losing top spot in the East to the Celtics, I’m absolutely expecting LeBron James and company to lay the hammer down tonight though. Note as well that this is a quadruple revenge game for the Cavaliers, having lost each of the last four meetings with the Bulls. Chicago sits just a game behind Miami for the final spot in the East, but note that it’s just 8-10 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog and only 6-8 ATS following a divisional contest. Also note that the Cavs have excelled in this spot for bettors, going 4-1 ATS in their last five when playing with two days rest. This is Cleveland’s most important game so far this entire season and suffice it to say, I look for the defending champions to respond with a resounding performance. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-17 | Blue Jackets -133 v. Hurricanes | 1-2 | Loss | -133 | 28 h 6 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:05 EST). The 49-19-5-2 Columbus Blue Jackets are in Carolina to take on the 34-27-9-5 Hurricanes and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Carolina comes in off a back-to-back set with Detroit, losing the first and winning the second. Columbus is coming off a 3-1 home win over Buffalo and it’s now won six of its last eight. With seven games to go, the Blue Jackets still have a lot to play for as they trail the Capitals by only three points for top spot in the Metro. Columbus is a solid 21-15 on the road this year. Jackets’ netminder Sergei Bobrovsky is 41-18 with a sparkling 1.97 GAA on the year, including a 16-10, 2.20 GAA record on the road. Bobrovsky has had tremendous success against the Hurricanes throughout his career, going 8-5 with a 2.21 GAA. Carolina still has a mathematical shot at the postseason, but its chances are slim sitting four points back of the eighth spot. Cam Ward is 17-12 with a 2.41 GAA at home and a sub-par 5-6 with a ballooned 3.07 GAA lifetime against Columbus. Columbus has the advantage in net and on both ends of the ice. With a tough matchup against Chicago upcoming, I look for the “better” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-30-17 | Islanders v. Flyers -123 | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:05 EST). The 35-28-8-4 New York Islanders are in Philadelphia to take on the 36-32-4-4 Flyers on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Isles playoff hopes are fading and they come into this one off a deflating 3-1 home loss to Nashville. New York has zero momentum having now lost six of its last nine. The Flyers enters off a 3-2 home win over Ottawa and they’ve now won three of their last four. The Isles are just 15-21 on the road. Goaltender Thomas Greiss is a pedestrian 13-13 with a 2.68 GAA away from friendly confines. Philadelphia is also still alive in the playoff hunt, although its path is even more difficult than New York’s. Regardless, note that goaltender Steve Mason is a solid 15-10 with a 2.47 GAA at home and a fantastic 8-6 with a 2.18 GAA lifetime against the Islanders. I’ll point out that New York is just 7-19 in its last 26 in Philadelphia, while the Flyers are 5-1 in their last six at home and 12-3 in their last 15 in the fourth game of a “4-in-6” scenario. Philadelphia is 22-15 at home this year. In my opinion, we’re getting great value on the Flyers in this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-17 | Wizards v. Clippers -5 | Top | 124-133 | Win | 100 | 34 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* BAIL-OUT is on the LA Clippers (10:35 EST). The Washington Wizards are in LA to take on the 44-31 Clippers on Wednesday night and for a couple of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Note that Washington played just 24 hours previous against the Lakers and suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. And with tough games at Utah and at Golden State upcoming respectively, it’s certainly not too hard to imagine the Wizards also in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to those very tough contests. The Clippers will be looking to take out their frustrations on someone after letting an 18-point fourth quarter lead go by the way side in a 98-97 setback at home to the Kings. LA currently sits 1.5 games behind Utah for the fourth seed, so it needs to start winning immediately if it has any hopes of securing home court advantage in the first round. Also note that this is a “revenge” game as well for LA after the Wizards won 117-110 in Washington on December 18th (note though that the Clippers have won eight straight at home in this series). With two whole days off to rest, prepare and re-focus, I love the home side to lay a severe beating from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-17 | Coastal Carolina v. Wyoming -7.5 | Top | 57-81 | Win | 100 | 32 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* CBI GAME 2 CHAMPIONSHIP PLAY is on Wyoming (9:00 EST). The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers get ready to battle the Wyoming Cowboys in Game 2 of the CBI Championship and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. It’s a best of three Championship round and Coastal Carolina has already taken the first game 91-81. No need to overanalyze this one in my opinion, as it’s do or die for the Cowboys. Coastal Carolina took an early 6-4 lead in Game 1 and then never looked back. The Chanticleers average 73.4 PPG and concede 72.8. Jaylen Shaw has averaged 20.2 points over his last four games. Wyoming averages 77.7 PPG and concedes 75.5. Jason McManamen had 19 points in the Game 1 loss. I’ll point out though that Coastal Carolina is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road, while Wyoming is 5-1 ATS in its last six at home and 20-7-1 ATS in is last 28 following a SU loss. The Cowboys are 17-3 at home this year, while the Chanticleers are a pathetic 3-10 on the road. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-29-17 | Bucks v. Celtics -8 | Top | 103-100 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Eastern Conference SIDE OF THE WEEK is on the Boston Celtics (7:35 EST). The Milwaukee Bucks are in Boston to take on the 48-26 Celtics on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Milwaukee has a solid defense which ranks in the top 10 in the league, but it plays in Charlotte on Tuesday night and suffice it to say, I think it’s going to be “gassed” in the second game of the back-to-back scenario. Boston has taken over top spot in the East and won’t want to give it up. The C’s have won four in a row and seven of their last eight. Boston is ranks eighth in scoring and 14th in points allowed. Isaiah Thomas averages 29.1 PPG and six assists per night for Boston. Note that the Celtics are 27-9 at home, while Milwaukee is a few games under .500 on the road. Also note that the Bucks are just 10-14 ATS in their last 24 in Boston, while the Celtics are 17-12 ATS against teams with winning records this year and interestingly, 10-4 ATS against Central division opponents. I think Milwaukee comes in flat-footed after the game last night and look for the Celtics to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-17 | Wizards v. Lakers +9 | Top | 119-108 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the LA Lakers (10:35 EST). The 45-28 Washignton Wizards are in LA to take on the 21-52 Lakers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I’m not going to be so bold as to predict an outright upset here, but I do definitely believe that the home side will catch the Wizards “looking past” their lowly opponent today and keep this one a lot closer than what Vegas is leading us to believe. At the very least, Washington will have the No. 3 seed in the Eastern conference. Clearly the Wizards are the better team, both on paper and on the floor. However, with a game against the Clippers tomorrow night, followed by tough outings at Utah and Golden State respectively, the stage is set for a classic “trap” game this evening. LA has nothing to play for and will almost assuredly be the second worst team in the league behind the Nets. But with one of the few remaining home games to put on a show for the crowd, I think the young Lakers come to play. And I’ll point out that Washington is just 16-17 ATS on the road this season and only 9-15 ATS overall since the All Star break, while LA is 2-1 ATS this year after scoring 85 points or less and interestingly, 6-2 ATS against the Southeast division. Grab as many points as you can, play on LA. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-17 | Rangers v. Sharks -117 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Jose Sharks (10:30 EST). The 46-26-3-1 New York Rangers are in San Jose to take on the 42-26-6-1 Sharks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. There’s no need to overthink this one in my opinion, as the Sharks will be desperate today after six straight defeats. New York owns the leagues best road record, but I think it’ll have its hands full with this desperate and hungry Sharks side. The Rangers conclude a difficult West coast road trip tonight, two nights after completing a back-to-back in which they won 3-0 at LA and lost 6-3 in Anaheim the following night. The Sharks are coming off back-to-back humbling defeats, losing 6-1 in Dallas on Friday and then 7-2 by the Predators just 24 hours later. It would be easy to make a case for the underdog Rangers here when looking at recent stats, but I think the situation definitely favors the home side. And note, New York is in fact just 5-7 (-1.8 units) in its last 12 against teams with winning records, while San Jose is 8-4 (+2.8 units) this season following a loss by two goals or more in its previous outing. I think the Blue Shirts run out of gas at the end of their road trip and expect the Sharks to risk life and limb today in trying to get off the schneid. Play on San Jose. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-17 | Kings v. Oilers -120 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 53 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Edmonton Oilers (9:00 EST). The 35-32-3-4 LA Kings are in Edmonton to take on the 41-25-4-5 Oilers on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA comes to town off a deflating 3-0 loss at home to New York. Whether it’s Jon Quick or Ben Bishop in net tonight, I think tonight’s goaltender matchup is a “wash.” Oilers’ netminder Cam Talbot is a solid 37-21-8 with a 2.40 GAA this year. Edmonton averages 2.92 GPG and allows 2.53. It’s also ranked third on the power play with a 22.7 percent efficiency rating. The Kings average just 2.41 GPG, while conceding 2.46. And I’ll point out that LA is just 1-10 in its last 11 against clubs with winning records, while Edmonton is 4-0 in its last four home games against a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400. I think we’re getting awesome value here on the superior side. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-17 | Capitals v. Wild +104 | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 53 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Wild (8:00 EST). The 49-17-3-5 Washington Capitals are in Minnesota to take on the 44-24-5-2 Wild on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Capitals are primed for a letdown here. They’ve been playing unbelievably well, winners of four straight, most recently smashing the Coyotes 4-1 at home. Alex Ovechkin scored his 30th goal of the year. Washington goaltender Braden Holtby is 6-2-0 with a 2.24 GAA lifetime against Minnesota. Washignton is ranked second with 3.19 GPG average, while ranked first in conceding just 2.14. But after a three-game home stand, all signs point to a letdown spot in the opener of a five game trip. Minnesota averages 3.16 GPG and concedes 2.51. These teams are very evenly matched. But I simply think this one means a lot more to the Wild as they look to break a stretch of poor play, having lost three straight and eight of their last nine. Devan Dubnyk has struggled against Washington in the past, but he’s been lights out this season, so far going 37-19-4 with a 2.18 GAA overall. The Capitals have a much more “winnable” game tomorrow night in Colorado, so it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the visitors getting caught “looking ahead” to that “cream puff” either. I think the desperate Wild offer great value tonight, play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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03-28-17 | Bucks v. Hornets UNDER 204 | Top | 118-108 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Bucks/Hornets (7:05 EST). The 37-36 Milwaukee Bucks are in Charlotte to take on the 33-40 Hornets on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Bucks look to get back on track, they’d won nine of 11 before falling 109-94 at home to the Bulls on Sunday. The Hornets also come in with momentum, they’ve won four of their last five, including a 120-106 victory over Phoenix on Sunday as well. Note that Charlotte has won three straight in the series, including a 107-96 win in the first matchup this year all the way back on October 26th. Milwaukee is ranked 18th overall in scoring with 104.4 PPG, while ranked ninth defensively in conceding 104.2. Giannis Antetokounmpo leads the nightly charge with 23.1 points, 8.6 boards, 5.3 assists, 1.67 steals and 1.89 blocks per game. The Bucks are effecient from the floor, ranked second in field goal percentage at 47.5 percent, but note that they’re poor from range, ranked 23rd with 8.6 three pointers per game. Charlotte now sits two games behind Miami for the final playoff spot, so clearly this is an important stretch for the home side. The Hornets are ranked 15th overall in averaging 105.1 PPG, while ranked ninth on the defensive end in conceding 104.2. Kemba Walker leads everyone with 22.9 points and 5.5 assists per game. I’ll point out that the under is 4-0 in Milwaukee’s last four after giving up 100 points or more in its previous contest, while Charlotte has seen the under go 11-4 in its last 15 after allowing 100 points or more in its previous outing. Five of these team’s last seven in the series have dipped below the posted number in Charlotte and I think all signs point to another lower-scoring battle. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-17 | Thunder v. Mavs +1 | Top | 92-91 | Push | 0 | 26 h 23 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Dallas Mavericks (8:30 EST). The 41-30 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Dallas to take on the 31-41 Dallas Mavericks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. OKC comes in off a loss in Houston yesterday afternoon and I think will be “gassed” here. Dallas will now look to take advantage and to get back into the winners circle after a 94-86 home loss to Toronto in its latest action. These teams have already split a pair of meetings this year, each earning the victory on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I expect that trend to carry on here. Dallas is 21-17 on its home floor and needs to start stringing some wins together immediately if it has any chance whatsoever at making it into the postseason. Desperation breeds motivation and note that the Mavericks are 3-1 ATS in their last four after scoring 86 points or less, while OKC is just 1-2 ATS in its last three in the second game of a back-to-back. After yesterday’s high-scoring defeat, I think the Thunder come out flat here. The correct call in this one is on the home side, play on Dallas. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-17 | Cavs v. Spurs -4 | 74-103 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:00 EST). San Antonio is in a dog fight with the Warriors for top spot in the West and now faces a daunting schedule with the suddenly underachieving defending champion Cavaliers coming to town tonight, followed with matchups at home against Golden State and then at Oklahoma City and then back home for Utah and Memphis. Cleveland has dropped six of its last ten, including three of its last four. After tonight’s tough road contest though, the Cavs have much more “winnable” contests against Eastern Conference cellar dwellers in Chicago, Philadelphia, Indiana and Orlando respectively. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up nicely for San Antonio as it looks to start this tough stretch off on the “right foot,” while Cleveland could very well be caught “looking ahead” to the “vanilla” stretch in its schedule. Also note that the Cavs are just 2-3 ATS this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent and only 8-13 ATS after allowing 115 points or more, while San Antonio is 18-6 ATS this season against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. Cleveland will be fine, but I think this one means a lot more to the red hot home side. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-17 | Magic v. Raptors -9 | 112-131 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Raptors (7:30 EST). The 27-46 Orlando Magic are in Toronto to take on the 44-29 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Orlando comes in complacent here in my opinion, it’s out of the playoff race for a while, but is contented after winning for the third time in four games in Friday’s 115-87 home victory over Detroit. The Raptors are rolling, but can ill afford to take the foot off the gas after a previous rough stretch, they enter this one having won five straight, most recently a 94-86 win over Dallas on the road on Saturday. Note that this sets up as a “revenge” game as well for Toronto, which has dropped two of three in the season series with Orlando so far, including a 102-94 setback in in the most recent matchup on February 3rd. Despite the recent “up tick” in play, the Magic are still just 28th in the league in averaging 100.4 PPG, while ranked a sub-par 19th on the defensive end in conceding 106.3 per game. The Raptors average 106.9 PPG and concede 102.8. Keep your eyes on DeMar DeRozan, who leads the nightly charge with 27.1 points, plus 5.3 boards per game. I’ll point out that Orlando 0-4 ATS in its last four when playing on two days rest, while Toronto is 4-1 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest. Toronto is just three games behind the Celtics with nine games to go. This is a very important contest for the Raptors, one which could be a difference maker in the next two weeks. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to come in focused on the task at hand and look for it to easily pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-27-17 | Predators v. Islanders -113 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the New York Islanders (7:00 EST). The 38-25-7-4 Nashville Predators are in New York to take on the 35-27-8-4 Islanders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Nashville comes to town off a 7-2 home win over the Sharks and it’s now won six of its last seven. Suffice it to say, I think this one sets up as a classic letdown spot/trap game for the visitors tonight. Conversely, the Isles will be eager to get back into the winners circle after a tough 2-1 home loss to the Bruins in their last outing. New York has now dropped three of its last five and sits 1.5 games back for eighth spot in the Eastern Playoff race. Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne is just 10-15 with a pedestrian 2.67 GAA on the road this year, while against the Isles he’s only 4-4 with a 2.63 GAA lifetime. Islanders’ goaltender Thomas Greiss is 12-9 with a 2.64 GAA at home, but Jaroslav Halak is expected between the pipes, note that he’s 12-7 with a 1.84 GAA lifetime against Nashville. I think this one means a lot more to New York and I expect it to risk life and limb today in trying to notch the victory. All things considered, this is a great price on the desperate home side in my opinion. Play on the Islanders. Good luck…Larry |
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03-26-17 | Rangers v. Ducks -140 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the Anaheim Ducks (9:05 EST). The 45-25-1-3 New York Rangers are in Anaheim to take on the 40-23-8-3 Ducks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. It’s true that the Rangers average the fourth most goals in the league (3.14) and concede the 11th least (2.59), but New York played and won 3-0 in LA just last night. Suffice it to say, despite Henrik Lundqvist getting the start tonight after getting rest in last night’s victory, I believe the Blue Shirts come in “flat footed” in the second game of the back-to-back. Anaheim is surging towards the finish line, it’s now won seven of its last nine after getting the better of Winnipeg 3-1 on Friday. The Ducks are in the middle of the pack on both ends of the ice, but note that Anaheim has excelled in this spot for bettors, going 21-14 (+4.4 units) in revenging a loss against an opponent, while New York has struggled by going just 1-2 (-1.2 units) in its last three in the second game of the back-to-back. Anaheim goaltender Jonahtan Bernier has allowed an average of just 1.28 GPG over his last seven starts. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-26-17 | Grizzlies v. Warriors OVER 208 | Top | 94-106 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Goin Over Total is the over Grizzlies/Warriors (8:05 EST). The 40-32 Memphis Grizzlies are in Golden State to take on the 58-14 Warriors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. Golden State has been rolling of late, winner of six straight games, most recently taking down the Kings on Friday night. Memphis will now look to break that string of success and get back into the winners circle itself after it had its four game win streak snapped with consecutive losses at the hands of the Pelicans and Spurs. Memphis actually gave the Warriors one of their four home losses this year with an OT victory at Oracle back on January 6th. But another upset may be hard to come by here against a once again red hot Warriors team, led by a surging Stephen Curry who has gone 28 for 60 from range during the win streak. Note that Golden State did revenge the home loss to the Grizzlies with a resounding 122-107 victory in Memphis last month. I’ll point out that Memphis has seen the total go over the number in six of ten this year when playing with two days rest, while Golden State has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four against clubs with winning records. Memphis would love to steal the season series against the Warriors and I’m expecting it to push the pace from start to finish as it comes in rested after two nights off. When you add it all up, I think this number is indeed just a little bit low. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-26-17 | Kentucky v. North Carolina -2.5 | Top | 73-75 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina (5:05 EST). The No. 5 Kentucky Wildcats get ready to play the No. 6 North Carolina Tar Heels in the Elite Eight on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors UNC. Kentucky rolled by UCLA 86-75 on Friday, while North Carolina edged Butler 92-80. Note that the Tar Heels play with revenge here after falling 103-100 at Kentucky on December 17th. The Wildcats average 85.2 PPG, while conceding 71.4. Malik Monk leads all scorers with 20.1 PPG. One glaring weakness for the Cats is their proficiency at the charity stripe, going a poor 70.5 percent collectively from the foul line this season. UNC averages 85.2 PPG and leads the nation rebounding with 43.7 boards per game. The Tar Heels concede 70.5 PPG and Justin Jackson leads the nightly charge with 18.2 points and 4.7 boards per game. I’ll point out that Kentucky is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS victory, while UNC is 6-2 ATS in its last eight tournament games and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference contests. A lot of talent on display here, but I think UNC’s veteran experience wins out over Kentucky’s youth. Play on the Tar Heels. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-17 | Rangers v. Kings -125 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -125 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Kings (10:30 EST). The 42-25-1-3 New York Rangers are in LA to take on the 35-31-3-4 Kings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. New York comes to the West Coast on a two-game slide. In fact, the Rangers hae dropped four of their past five, most recently a 3-2 OT setback to the Devils. Antti Raanta is 15-8-2 with a 2.35 GAA this year. LA comes in off a 5-2 win over the Jets on Thursday. Goaltender Ben Bishop is 1-2-2 with a 2.48 GAA since coming over from the Lightning, while Jon Quick is 4-2-0 with a 2.48 GAA against New York lifetime. I’ll point out that New York is just 1-4 in its last five in this series, while LA is 17-8 in its last 25 against teams with a winning percentage above .600. The Kings have won six of nine at home and are in desperation mode as the season comes down the stretch. I’m laying the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-17 | Knicks +15.5 v. Spurs | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SHOCKER is on the New York Knicks (8:35 EST). The 27-45 New York Knicks are in San Antonio to take on the 55-16 Spurs and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that the situation favors the visitors and look for them to keep this one a lot closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The Knicks come in under the radar here, they’ve lost four straight and seven of their last eight, most recently a 110-95 setback at Portland on Thursday. Conversely, the Spurs come in complacent after winning their third straight and fifth in their last seven by outlasting the Grizzlies 97-90 at home on Thursday. New York comes in averaging 105.1 PPG and is fourth in the NBA in rebounding with 45.5 boards per game. The Knicks are poor defensively though, conceding 108.7 per contest. San Antonio averages 106.3 PPG and concedes 98.4 Kawhi Leonard leads the way with 25.9 points, 5.9 boards and 1.84 steals per game. I’ll point out though that New York has excelled in this spot for bettors this year, going 7-3 ATS after three or more consecutive losses and 22-13 ATS when playing against a team with a winning record, while San Antonio is just 11-16 ATS this season after three or more consecutive victories and just 5-8 ATS following a divisional contest. Clearly this is a matchup of David vs. Goliath on paper, but not only do the trends support the Knicks in this situation, but so too does the overall “situation.” There’s no doubt that this sets up as a classic “trap” game for the Spurs, with games against the Cavaliers and Warriors on Sunday and Tuesday resepectively. I think the visitors do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread they’ve been afforded as they catch the home side “looking ahead.” Play on New York. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-17 | Sharks v. Predators -138 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 27 h 27 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nashville Predators (8:00 EST). The 42-24-6-1 San Jose Sharks are in Nashville to take on the 37-25-7-4 Predators and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Predators come in firing on all cylinders as they’ve won five of their last six. San Jose has been sliding of late and comes in off a humiliating 6-1 loss in Dallas just last night. Suffice it to say, I think the visitors come in “shell shocked” and tired after that debacle and expect the surging home side to take full advantage. Sharks’ netminder Martin Jones has struggled against the Preds throughout his career, going 1-3-2 with a 2.90 GAA. Nashville goaltender Pekka Rinne has allowed just one goal over his last three games and note that he’s dominated the Sharks throughout his career, going 10-6-4 with a 1.86 GAA. I’ll point out that San Jose is just 1-4 in its last five against a team with a winning record, while the Predators are 6-1 in their last seven home games against a team with a winning road record. The Sharks are just 1-5 in their last six on the road and all signs point to another letdown here. Lay the price, play on Nashville. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-17 | Flames v. Blues -143 | 3-2 | Loss | -143 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Blues (7:00 EST). The 41-29-2-2 Calgary Flames are in St. Louis to take on the 40-28-4-1 Blues and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Calgary comes to town off a 3-1 road loss to Nashville, while St. Louis smashed Vancvouer 4-1 on Thursday night. These teams have so far split a pair of games this year. The Flames average 2.7 GPG and concede 2.7 as well. Brian Elliot owns a 2.50 GAA. St. Louis averages 2.8 GPG and concedes 2.7. Jake Allen owns a 2.47 ERA. The Blues have won four straight and Allen is playing his best of hockey of the year right now. I’ll point out that Calgary is just 1-7 in its last eight games played in St. Louis, while the Blues are 5-1 in their last six against the Pacific division. The Blues have averaged 3.2 GPG in winning nine of their last ten and they’ve been even better on the defensive end of late, conceding a total of seven goals over their last six games. And that doesn’t bode well for a Flames side which has lost two straight on the road and who have struggled mightily in this particular venue for years. Lay the price, play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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03-25-17 | Xavier v. Gonzaga -8 | Top | 59-83 | Win | 100 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* ELITE 8 SIDE OF THE YEAR is on Gonzaga (6:05 EST). The No. 11 Xavier Musketeers get ready to battle the No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs in the Elite Eight on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. Neither team has made it to the Championship game in school history. Xavier though looks poised for a classic letdown here in my opinion after its upset win over Arizona in the last round. The Musketeers shot a great 52.8 percent from the floor, but were outrebounded 35-27. They also missed five of their 16 free throws. It was an atrocious performance for the Wildcats too. Suffice it to say, I think Xavier is going to have a much tougher time on the offensive end tonight. The Bulldogs come in off a 61-58 win over West Virginia, holding the Mountaineers to just 26.7 percent from the floor and only 5 of 23 from behind the arc. The Musketeers are overmatched here completely and I’m expecting a complete blowout from start to finish. One player to keep your eyes on is Nigel Williams-Goss, who was held to just ten points last time out, but who presents a difficult matchup for Xavier. Lay the points with confidence, play on Gonzaga. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Kings +17.5 v. Warriors | Top | 100-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Sacramento Kings (10:35 EST). Clearly the Warriors are the superior team, they come into this one having won five straight, including covering the spread in their last four as well. The last time Golden State faced Sacramento, it would smash the Kings 109-86 on February 15th. So am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money-line” as well? Of course not. I simply feel that this sets up as a “trap” game for the Warriors, who will next face the Grizzlies, the Rockets and Spurs respectively. It’s not too hard to imagine the home side taking the foot off the gas a little bit tonight as it focuses on its much tougher upcoming schedule. The Kings have struggled with offensive consistency since making the DeMarcus Cousins trade, but note that they’ve excelled in this spot for bettors this season, going 8-5 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 11-4 ATS after three or more consecutive losses. And it’s interesting to note that Golden State is just 3-7 ATS this season when playing with two days rest and only 10-16 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 106 points per contest. For all the reason’s listed above, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Wisconsin v. Florida OVER 131.5 | Top | 83-84 | Win | 100 | 108 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* Sweet 16 O/U 33-Club Play is the over Wisconsin/Florida (9:59 EST). The No. 8 Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the No. 4 Florida Gators in the second day of the Sweet 16 on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I’m expecting this one to eclipse the posted number as the game comes down the stretch. Wisconsin comes in off a confidence building 65-62 win over defending champion Villanova, while Florida smashed Virginia 65-39 last Saturday. Nigel Hayes had 19 points and eight boards for the Badgers last time out. Wisconsin has now won five of its last six games overall. The Gators average 77.9 PPG and that offense will be tested by Wisconsin’s tough defense, but I think Florida will have it chances. Make sure to keep your eyes on Devin Robinson, who had 14 points and 11 boards last time out. I’ll point out as well that the Badgers have seen the total go over the number in 15 of 26 against teams with winning records this year, while Florida has seen the total fly above the posted number in two of its last three against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest. Both teams are confident right now. Each will be looking to get the other out of its “comfort” zone. These teams are very evenly matched, but fortune favors the bold. I’m expecting a bit more of a wide open affair in this one and for this total to indeed sneak over as it comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Pelicans v. Rockets -7 | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 18 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). The 30-41 New Orleans Pelicans are in Houston to take on the 49-22 Rockets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. New Orleans comes in off a 95-82 win over Memphis, while Houston nipped by Denver 125-124 in its latest action. James Harden had 39 points and 11 assists in the Rockets most recent win. DeMarcuas Cousins had 41 points and 17 boards in the Pelicans victory over the Grizzlies. I’ll point out though that New Orleans is just 6-8 ATS against the division this year and only 3-5 ATS after allowing 90 points or less, while Houston is 17-7 ATS after allowing 115 points or more and 24-11 ATS against teams with losing records. I think the Pelicans finally stumble as they hit the road and Houston pulls away for the comfortable ATS cover down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Butler v. North Carolina -7 | Top | 80-92 | Win | 100 | 102 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* SWEET 16 PERFECT STORM is on North Carolina (7:10 EST). The Butler Bulldogs are getting ready to battle the North Carolina Tar Heels on Friday night on the second day of the Sweet 16 and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. Butler comes in off a 75-65 win over MTSU and it’s now won six of its last eight, while UNC is off a 72-65 win over Arkansas and it’s now won eight of its last ten. The Bulldogs average 76.2 PPG and allow 68.2. Kelan Martin was a stand out in the last round with 19 points. Butler has looked sharp defensively down the stretch, but it now faces one of the nation’s top offenses and suffice it to say, I think it’s going to have its hands full tonight. UNC averages 85.1 PPG and concedes 70.3 (note though that the Tar Heels have averaged 88.6 PPG on 48.8 percent shooting and allowed just 70.0 in all neutral site games this year). Kennedy Meeks had 16 points to lead four other players in double figures last time out. I’ll point out that Butler is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory, while UNC is 20-7-2 ATS in its last 29 neutral site games when playing the role of favorite. The Tar Heels have been especially sharp on the defensive end of late, allowing just 62.4 PPG over their last nine. Lay the points with confidence, play on North Carolina. Good luck…Larry |
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03-24-17 | Cavs -3 v. Hornets | 112-105 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (7:05 EST). The 46-24 Cleveland Cavaliers are in Charlotte to take on the 32-39 Hornets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. These teams have played twice this year and the Cavs have won both, most recently a 121-109 decision on December 31st. But Cleveland has lost two of its last three, while Charlotte comes in having won three straight. Suffice it to say, I think the Cavs are the much “hungrier” team today, especially the way LeBron James called out the rest of his team after the disturbing loss in Denver last time out. Newcomer Deron Williams was a stand out in that one with 19 points on 8-of-10 shooting. Charlotte comes in off a 109-102 win over the Magic on Wednesday, led by 19 points from Terrence Ross. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 3-1-1 ATS in its last five after scoring 100 points or more in its previous contest, while Charlotte is just 4-10 ATS in its last 14 in front of the home town crowd. The Cavs have dominated this series this year and I don’t expect anything to change. Lay the points with confidence as James and company come in razor focused and lay the hammer down from start to finish. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-17 | Jets v. Kings -147 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Kings (10:35 EST). The 33-33-6-1 Winnipeg Jets are in LA to take on the 34-31-3-4 Kings and for a number of different reaons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Jets come in complacent after three straight victories. Conversely, it’s all hands on deck for the Kings who have dropped four of their last five. Winnipeg averages 2.99 GPG and concedes 3.16. Connor Hellebuyck owns a poor 2.90 GAA on the year. LA averages 2.40 GPG and concedes 2.46. Jon Quick is 5-2-1 on the year with a 2.21 GAA, while Ben Bishop is 3-1-1 with a 1.97 GAA lifetime against the Jets. I’ll point out though that this is a spot in which Winnipeg has already struggled in mightily for bettors this season, going just 11-17 (-6.1 units) after a non-conference contest and only 18-20 (-2.5 units) in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. And note, this is a position in which the Kings have done fairly well in, going 7-4 (+2.2 units) this year when playing with two days of rest and 11-8 (+1.2 units) after a loss by two goals or more in their previous contest. For all of the reasons listed above, I think LA offers great value in this spot. Play the Kings. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-17 | Purdue v. Kansas UNDER 157 | Top | 66-98 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* SWEET 16 O/U LEGEND is the under Purdue/Kansas (9:35 EST). The No. 15 Purdue Boilermakers get ready to battle the No. 3 Kansas Jayhawks in the Sweet 16 on Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Purdue advanced after beating Iowa State 80-76 on Saturday, while Kansas reached this point after getting the better of Michigan State 90-70 on Sunday. Vince Edwards led the Boilermakers last time out with 21 points and ten boards. Overall Purdue shot 49.4 percent from the floor. The Boilermakers have an above average offense which posts 80.1 PPG. The Boilermakers are also strong defensively in conceding just 67.5. Caleb Swanigan leads all players with 18.5 points, 12.6 boards and three assists per game. Kansas is ranked 15th in the nation in scoring with an average of 83.4 PPG, while ranked 173rd on the defensive end in conceding 72 per night. Frank Mason III leads the nightly charge with 20.8 points, 4.1 boards and 5.2 assists per game. I’ll point out though that Purdue has seen the total go under the number in four of its last five after scoring 80 points or more, while Kansas has seen the total stay below the posted number in four of its last six as a neutral court favorite in the 3.5 to six points range. Both teams are fairly thin after the starting five, so adjustments are going to be key in this one. I’m expecting a pretty intense game and for this one to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-17 | Flames v. Predators -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 56 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST). The 41-28-4 Calgary Flames are in Nashville to take on the 36-25-11 Predators and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Predators have won four of their last five, while Calgary had a two-game win streak snapped in the Nation’s capital on Tuesday night. These teams have split a pair of games this year, each winning on the others ice. Calgary has also been hot of late, it’s now 12-2-0 in its last 14 overall. I’ll point out though that the Flames are 0-for-7 on power plays over their last four outings. These teams are very evenly matched, but I think the situation favors Nashville. The loss to the Capitals took the wind out of the Flames’ sails, I’m expecting the home side to take advantage and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-17 | Suns v. Nets OVER 220 | Top | 98-126 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Goin Over Total is the over Suns/Nets (7:35 EST). The 22-49 Phoenix Suns are in Brooklyn to take on the 14-57 Nets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. These are a couple of the worst teams in the league. Neither has anything to play for as far as the standings are concerned. Suffice it to say, I’m not expecting a lot of defense played as each of these bottom feeders pushes the pace from start to finish, resulting in what I believe will be very high-scoring affair. The Suns come in having lost five straight, most recently a 112-97 setback at Miami on Tuesday. The Nets had dropped five of seven before getting the better of the Pistons 98-96 at home on Tuesday. When these teams played in Phoenix back on November 12th, the Nets won 122-104. The Suns have struggled because of injury, but still come in sitting in tenth in the league in scoring with 107.1 PPG. Phoenix though has struggled on the defensive end all year, conceding an average of 112.5 per night. Eric Bledsoe leads the team with 21.1 points, 4.8 boards and 6.3 assists per game. The Nets average 105.7 PPG, but are last on the defensive end in conceding 113.6 per night. Big man Brook Lopez leads the nightly charge with 20.8 PPG. I’ll point out though that Phoenix has seen the total go over the number in eight of 13 this year after three or more consecutive losses, while Brooklyn has seen the total sail above the posted number in 20 of 28 non-conference games and in 15 of 23 against good offensive teams which score 106 plus points per contest. For all the reasons listed above, I’m expecting this one to fly OVER once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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03-23-17 | Penguins -131 v. Senators | 1-2 | Loss | -131 | 28 h 34 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:35 EST). The 46-17-6-3 Pittsburgh Penguins are in Ottawa to take on the 40-24-6-2 Senators and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the defending champs. Pittsburgh comes to town off a 3-1 road win over Buffalo and it’s now won eight of its last ten, while Ottawa returns home off a 3-2 road win at Boston, the victory snapping a four-game slide. The Pens have won three in a row and are ranked No. 1 in the league in scoring with 3.46 GPG. Pttsburgh is ranked in the middle defensively in conceding 2.72. Matt Murray is 13-8 with a 2.28 GAA on the road though. Ottawa averages a paltry 2.60 GPG while giving up 2.57. Craig Anderson is 22-11 with a 2.29 GAA on the year. I’ll point out though that Pittsburgh is 15-9 (+1.7 units) this season in revenging a loss against an opponent and 18-10 (+4.1 units) after a victory by two goals or more, while Ottawa is just 1-3 (-1.7 units) in its last four following a divisional contest. I have a hard time seeing Ottawa matching pace with the high-powered Penguins, who come into this one firing on all cylinders. In my professional opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line vaule.” Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-17 | Knicks v. Jazz -10 | Top | 101-108 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 60 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Utah Jazz (10:30 EST). The 27-43 New York Knicks are in Utah to take on the 43-28 Jazz on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Knicks are now officially looking ahead to next season with nothing but pride to play for the rest of the way. The Jazz on the other hand are trying to hold on to fourth place in the West playoffs, a spot which would give them home floor advantage in the first round. New York comes in off two straight losses, losing at home to Brooklyn on Thursday and then starting this trip with a 114-105 seback at the Clippers on Monday. The Knicks play a game tomorrow night, so could also be caught looking ahead here. Utah comes home in a foul mood after dropping three straight to close a four-game road trip. Gordon Hayward was a bright spot with 38 points in the most recent setback. I’ll point out though that New York is just 1-2 ATS this year against good defensive teams which concede 98 points or less per contest, while Utah is 12-7 ATS this season against poor defensive clubs which allow 106 points per contest. With a big game against the Clippers on Saturday (the team sitting a half game back in fifth spot in the West), the Jazz can ill afford to drop another “gimme.” This has essentially become a “must win” game for Utah, so lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-17 | Hawks v. Wizards -7 | 100-104 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Washington Wizards (8:00 EST). The 37-33 Atlanta Hawks are in Washington to take on the 42-28 Wizards and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Atlanta comes in with zero momentum, it’s lost four straight, most recently a 105-90 setback at Charlotte on Monday. The Wizards can empathize, they’ve also been scuffling of late, having lost two in a row and four of their last five, most recently a 110-102 setback at Boston on Monday night. Washington has already won two of three in the season series with Atlanta, including a 112-86 victory on the road in the last matchup back on January 27th. Atlanta averages 103.4 PPG and concedes 104.5. Paul Millsap leads all scorers with 18.1 points, plust 7.7 boards and 3.8 assists per game. The Wizards average 108.8 PPG and concede 106.8. John Wall leads the nightly charge with 22.9 points, 10.8 assists and 1.96 steals per game. I’ll point out though that Atlanta is just 3-11 ATS against the division this year and only 8-10 ATS after a loss by ten points or more (also only 2-7 ATS this year after three or more consecutive losses), while Washington is 21-16 ATS at home this season and 16-12 ATS against teams with winning records. Neither team instills much confidence, but the Wizards are a strong 27-10 at the Verison Center. Atlanta has been without Millsap in the lineup the last two games and I think that once again hurts the Hawks tonight. Look for the Wizards to find a way to get the job done, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-17 | 76ers v. Thunder -10.5 | 97-122 | Win | 100 | 30 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Oklahoma City Thunder (8:00 EST). The 26-44 Philadelphia 76ers are in Oklahoma City to take on the 40-30 Thunder and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The 76ers just blew a 15 point halftime lead in a 112-109 setback in OT to Orlando on Monday, while the Thunder had their five-game win skein snapped with a 111-95 home loss to the Warriors later that same evening. If history is any precedence though, then OKC has to be loving its chances today as it’s taken 15 straight in the series, including a 103-97 victory in the most recent, back on October 26th. Despite its recent “up-tick” in play, Philadelphia still ranks 24th in the league in scoring with an average of 102.4 PPG. The 76ers are also below average defensively in conceding 107.6 a night. OKC averages 106.7 PPG and concedes 106. Russell Westbrook leads the way with 31.4 points, 10.5 boards and 10.3 assists per game. I think Philadelphia has a predictable letdown here after its shocking collapse in its last game. The Thunder had been averaging 112 points during their five-game win streak before losing to the Warriors. Suffice it to say, I think Westbrook and company take out their frustrations on their lowly visitors and pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS victory. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-22-17 | Illinois v. UCF OVER 129.5 | Top | 58-68 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
My NIT QUARTER-FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Illinois/UCF (7:00 EST). The UCF Knights get ready to battle the Illinois Fighting Illini in the semi finals of the NIT tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will end up as a higher-scoring affair. Illinois has looked dominant through the first two rounds, while UCF had to fight to the bitter end in each of its victories. These are two battle tested teams and all signs point to an all out slugfest. UCF comes in off a hard-fought, come-from-behind 63-62 win over Illinois State. The Golden Knights trailed by 13 at half time, but came all the way back to claim the 1-point victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting Central Florida to carry that second half momentum over into this one. The Fighting Illini have yet to be tested, cruising to a 71-56 win over Boise State in the second round. Tracy Abrams shot 55 percent in the victory, netting 18 points. Illinois would go on to hit 41 percent from range. It also tallied 17 assists, while only making ten turnovers. I’ll point out that UCF has seen the total go over the number in five of seven road games this year when the total is set between 130 and 134.5, while Illinois has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six this year vs. good defensive teams that concede 64 points or less per contest. I think Illinois pushes the pace of this one from the outset in an attempt to keep the Knights on their heels. This number is just a little low in my opinion, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-17 | Sharks v. Wild -137 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 51 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Minnesota Wild (8:35 EST). The 42-22-6-1 San Jose Sharks are in Minnesota to take on the 43-22-4-2 WIld and for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The Wild will be risking life and limb today as they look to snap a five-game losing streak. San Jose comes off a game in Dallas on Monday and win or lose that one, will clearly be “gassed” on Tuesday. If recent history is any precedence, then Minnesota has to be liking its chances to get back into the winners circle today as it’s already taken both meetings with the Sharks this year, 5-4 and 3-1 respectively. These teams are very evenly matched, getting balanced scoring up and down the lines, while also being a couple of the top defensive clubs, with each also receiving world class goaltending. But the motivation behind the extended losing streak, combined with the second game of the back-to-back for the Sharks heavily favors the Wild from a situational stand point. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-17 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans UNDER 205.5 | Top | 82-95 | Win | 100 | 28 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL PERFECT STORM is on the under Grizzlies/Pelicans (8:05 EST). The 40-30 Memphis Grizzlies are in New Orleans to take on the 29-41 Pelicans and for a number of different reasons, I think this total is just a little bit high. The Grizzlies come in rolling, most recently beating San Antonio 104-96 at home on Saturday, their fourth straight victory. New Orleans is also surging, it’s won four of its last five, including a 123-109 decision at home over Minnesota on Sunday. Memphis has taken two of three in the season series thus far, including a tight 95-91 victory in the most recent on February 15th. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well as these two teams continue to battle down the stretch. Despite the recent “up-tick” in play, note that Memphis still only averages 101.4 PPG. The Grizz make up for it on the other end in conceding just 100.4. Big man Marc Gasol leads the nightly charge with 20.1 points and 6.2 boards per game. The Pelicans average only 103.6 PPG, while conceding 106. Big man Anthony Davis leads everyone with 27.8 points, 11.8 boards, 1.21 steals and 2.26 blocks per game. I’ll point out that Memphis has seen the total go under the number in seven of 11 already this year after three or more consecutive wins, while New Orleans has seen the total go below the posted number in 14 of 22 as a favorite this season. I don’t think this is going to be a wide open affair, but rather expect to see a lot of half cour sets while on offense. A slower paced game = less points in this case, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-17 | Flyers v. Jets -140 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 21 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Winnipeg Jets (8:05 EST). The 33-30-4-4 Philadelphia Flyers are in Winnipeg to take on the 32-33-6-1 Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Winnipeg comes in with plenty of momentum having won two straight, most recently a 5-4 victory over Minnesota. Philadelphia comes to town off an exhausting come-from-behind 4-3 OT win over Carolina on Sunday. The Flyers average 2.5 GPG, ranking them 22nd, while conceding 2.9, ranked 24th. Goaltender Steve Mason owns a poor 20-20-7, 2.76 GAA record this year. The Jets average 3.0 GPG and concede 3.2. Connor Hellebuyck owns a 23-18-4, 2.86 GAA record. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia is just 8-12 (-5.1 units) this year after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest, while Winnipeg is 3-1 (+2.4 units) in its last four after giving up four goals or more in its previous contest. Winnipeg is out to play spoiler here and I think the visitors have a letdown. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-17 | Rangers -145 v. Devils | 2-3 | Loss | -145 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Rangers (7:05 EST). The 45-24-0-3 New York Rangers are in New Jersey to take on the 26-33-10-2 Devils and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Rangers come to town off a 3-2 home win over the Wild, while the Devils enter off a 4-1 home loss to Columubs. New Jersey has lost 12 of its last 13. New York has won five of its last seven trips to New Jersey and will be looking to once again take advantage in this favorable matchup. The Rangers average 3.17 GPG and concede 2.58. Antii Raanta is 15-8 with a 2.30 GAA this year, including 11-2 with a 2.08 GAA on the road. Note that he’s been particularly sharp against the Devils as well, going 4-0 with a 1.99 GAA lifetime. The Devils average 2.27 GPG and concede 2.92. Cory Schneider is 13-15 with a 2.53 GAA at home and just 4-9 with a pedestrian 2.52 GAA lifetime against the Rangers. I’ll point out that New York is 38-13 in its last 51 on the road against teams with a losing home record, while New Jersey is just 15-37 in its last 52 against a team with a winning percentage above .600. The Rangers are the best road team in the NHL with a 26-9 record, while the Devils are just 7-19 in their last 26 at home. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-21-17 | Richmond v. TCU UNDER 150 | Top | 68-86 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* TOP TOTAL is the under Richmond/TCU. The Richmond Spiders get ready to battle the TCU Horned Frogs in the quarterfinals of the NIT on Tuesday night and in my opinion, this one has defensive battle written all over it. Richmond got by Oakland at home in the last round, while TCU needed OT to beat Iowa 94-92 on the road on Sunday. The Spiders average 74.4 PPG and concede 71.6. Note that in its opening round win over Alabama, the defense looked sharp in the 71-64 victory. The Horned Frogs average 74.2 PPG and concede 70.6. Vladimir Brodziansky leads everyone with 13.7 points, 5.6 boards and 2.2 blocks per game. I’ll point out that Richmond has seen the total go under the number in six of ten non-conference games this year and in seven of 12 on the road, while TCU has seen the total stay below the posted number in seven of 11 this season after scoring 80 points or more, in seven of 13 non-conference games and in 11 of 18 in front of the home town crowd this season. TCU is playing without its starting point guard and comes back home after an exhausting OT road win. Richmond’s strength is on the defensive side of the ball and I expect the visitors to play with added emphasis on that end of the floor tonight. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-17 | Warriors v. Thunder OVER 221 | Top | 111-95 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Goin Over Total is the over Warriors/Thunder (8:00 EST). The 55-14 Golden State Warriors are in Oklahoma City to take on the 40-29 Thunder and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive “shootout” written all over it. Golden State comes in off a 117-93 destruction of Milwaukee on Saturday, while Oklahoma City smashed Sacramento 110-94 earlier the same day. Oklahoma City plays with revenge today as Golden State has so far taken all three meetings this season. When Kevin Durant went down the Warriors lost three straight. Durant is still out, but since then Golden State has reeled off three straight victories. Stephen Curry had 28 points in the win over the Bucks and Golden State shot 60 percent collectively from the floor. The Warriors own the No. 1 offense, averaging 116.12 PPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack on the defensive end in conceding 104.9. The Thunder average 106.9 PPG and concede 106. OKC has won five straight and is led by the Triple Double Machine, Russell Westbrook, who averages 31.7 points, 10.3 assists and 10.5 boards per game. When these clubs met last month, Westbrook had 47 points in his team’s 130-114 home loss. With Durant on the bench for this one, look for Westbrook to once again try to put on a show in front of his ex-teammate and now bitter rival. OKC has in fact averaged 115 points over its last six games. Facing a now confident Warriors team that’s looking to make a statement of their own with their wounded superstar urging them on from the sidelines, all signs point to another high-scoring shootout. The over is 11-4 in the last 15 between these teams in Oklahoma City. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-17 | George Washington -5.5 v. Illinois-Chicago | Top | 71-80 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* CBI TOURNEY SIDE OF THE YEAR is on George Washington (8:00 EST). The George Washington Colonials are getting ready to battle the Illinois-Chicago Flames in the second round of the CBI. Last year the Colonials won the NIT title. George Washington opened the CBI with a win over Toledo, while Illinois-Chicago earned a slim two-point win over Stony Brook in the round of 16. The Colonials had a tough non-conference schedule and dropped five games to Georgia, UAB, Penn State, Florida State and Miami, but they’d also pick up quality victories over Harvard, South Florida, Temple and UCF. Tyler Cavanaugh had 29 points in the victory over Toledo. The Flames finished the season three games below .500, but still managed to earn a postseason birth. After getting through the first round though, I’m expecting a letdown tonight. Dominique Matthews was a standout with a game-high 21 points in the win over the Seawolves. Illinois Chicago is just happy to be here, while George Washington would love to add the CBI tournament title to its resume after winning the NIT last season and I’m expecting this experienced team to do more than enough to come away with the comfortable ATS victory tonight. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-20-17 | Sabres v. Red Wings -140 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -140 | 28 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Detroit Red Wings (7:30 EST). The 29-31-6-6 Buffalo Sabres are in Detroit to take on the 28-31-11-0 Red Wings and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion, as I believe the Sabres are due for a predictable letdown here after a rare 2-1, shootout road victory over the Ducks. Buffalo averages 2.47 GPG and concedes 2.83. Detroit averages 2.41 GPG and concedes 3.00. These are two teams which have struggled in all facets of the game for most of the season. Each has also gotten inconsistent goaltending this year. When you add it all up, each finds itself almost mathematically eliminated from playoff contention. For arguments sake I am calling the goaltending a “wash.” Home ice advantage simply can’t be overlooked here though, as Detroit has won 15 of the last 18 in this series at Joe Louis Arena. All signs point to a comfortable victory, lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-17 | South Carolina +7 v. Duke | Top | 88-81 | Win | 100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* 33-Club Play is on South Caroilna (8:40 EST). The South Carolina Gamecocks are ready to battle the Duke Blue Devils on Sunday night in the second round of the NCAA Tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. South Carolina smashed Marquette 93-73 in the opening round, while Duke got by Troy 87-65. The Gamecocks average 72.7 PPG this year, but make up for it on the other end by conceding just 64.7. They also rank seventh overall in 3-point defense in allowing just 29.7 percent. Sindarius Thornwell had 29 points in the victory over the Golden Eagles. Duke has averaged 80.8 PPG this year, while allowing 69.7. Grayson Allen had 21 points in the victory over the Trojans. I’lll point out though that South Carolina is 9-5 ATS in its last 14 neutral court games and 8-4 ATS in its last 12 when playing with one or less days rest, while Duke is just 13-16 ATS as a favorite this year and only 7-9 ATS after scoring 80 points or more. South Carolina’s offense was firing on all cylinders against Marquette and I’m expecting it to carry that momentum over here. The Gamecocks have a fantastic defense as well and while I won’t be so bold as to call for an outright upset, I do think that South Carolina can at the very least, take this one down to the wire and keep it competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-17 | Hurricanes v. Flyers -137 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Philadelphia Flyers (7:30 EST). The 29-27-7-5 Carolina Hurricanes are in Philadelphia to take on the 32-30-4-4 Flyers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. No need to overthink this one in my opinion. Carolina comes in off two straight victories, including a very satisfying 4-2 win at home over Nashville just last night. The Hurricanes are great at home (21-10-3-1), but horrible on the road (9-17-4-4). The Flyers play with “revenge” after dropping the most recent in the series 5-1 on January 31st. Philadelphia comes in off a humbling 6-2 loss at the Devils and will embark on a lengthy road trip after this game at home tonight. Clearly the Flyers need to make the most of familar confines. I’ll point out that Carolina is just 2-5 in its last seven in the second game of a back-to-back, while Philadelphia is 24-8 the last 32 in this series in front of the home town crowd. When taking into account the strong situational, motivational and trend based factors working in their favor, the Flyers could easily be much bigger favorites in this spot in my opinion. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-17 | Pacers v. Raptors OVER 201 | Top | 91-116 | Win | 100 | 26 h 29 m | Show |
My 10* Goin Over Total is the over Pacers/Raptors (6:05 EST). The 35-33 Indiana Pacers are in Toronto to take on the 40-29 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. Both teams are hungry for victories. The Pacers are fighting for a playoff spot, while the Raptors are fighting to maintain theirs. Indiana comes in off a 98-77 victory over Charlotte on Wednesday, while Toronto had dropped three of four before taking down Detroit 87-75 on Friday. The Raptors have won seven of the last eight meetings in the series, including a 111-98 victory at home in the most recent matchup back up April 8th, 2016. Indiana comes in refreshed and ready to roll after three whole nights off. The Pacers average 104.3 PPG and concede 104.9. Paul George leads the nightly charge with 22.4 points and 6.4 boards per game. Note that the Pacers rank eighth overall in knocking down 37 percent of their shots from range. Toronto averages 106.8 PPG and concedes 103.3. DeMar DeRozan leads everyone with 26.9 points, plus 5.4 boards per game. I’ll point out that the Pacers have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last 11 after allowing 90 points or less, while the Raptors have seen the total sail above the posted number in 16 of 24 against teams with winning records and in 20 of 34 in front of the home town crowd thus far. The regular season is winding down and these two teams will meet three times over the next three weeks. This is an important game and I think we’ll see a more wide open affair, with each pushing the pace from start to finish. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-19-17 | Wolves v. Pelicans UNDER 208.5 | Top | 109-123 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Wolves/Pelicans (6:05 EST). The 28-40 Minnesota Timberwolves are in New Orleans to take on the 28-41 Pelicans on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Minnesota looks to rebound after two straight losses, while New Orleans looks to keep the momentum rolling after winning three of its last four. The Wolves need to put the focus back on the defensive side of the ball if they want to get back into the winners circle, in their last two setbacks they’ve given up an average of 120 points. New Orleans beat the Rockets 128-112 last time out, led by 30 points, seven assists, six boards and six three-pointers from Solomon Hill. Hill came into that one averaging 6.5 PPG to that point. I’ll point out that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 21 this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while New Orleans has seen the total stay below the posted number in ten of 14 this season off an upset win as an underdog. The Pelicans just held the Rockets to 13 of 40 from range and nobody other than James Harden had more than 13 points for Houston. I’m expecting an all out war between these two young clubs and for this one to indeed fall under once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-17 | Spurs v. Grizzlies +3.5 | Top | 96-104 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* UNDERDOG SUPER SHOCKER is on the Memphis Grizzlies (9:05 EST). The 52-15 San Antonio Spurs are in Memphis to take on the 39-30 Grizzlies and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. San Antonio comes to town off a 110-106 home loss to Portland, while Memphis beat Atlanta 103-91 on Thursday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Grizzlies have to be loving their chances for an upset today, because in the lone meeting between the clubs earlier in the year, they’d score the 89-74 home victory. San Antonio has started to show some signs of fatigue finally, it’s just 2-2 over its last four after winning nine in a row. The Spurs average 106.5 PPG and concede 98.5. The Grizzlies average just 101.4 PPG, but make up for it on the defensive side in conceding just 98.2. In the win over Atlanta, they’d hold the Hawks to 40 percent shooting. Big man Marc Gasol had 18 points, ten boards and ten assists. I’ll point out that San Antonio is just 4-8 ATS this year against the division and only 3-7 ATS when playing on two days rest, while Memphis is 10-7 ATS off an upset win as an underdog and 15-11 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106 points or more per contest. With a much “easier” game at home tomorrow night against the Kings, it’s not too hard to imagine the visitors also in some small way getting caught “looking ahead” to that one. I like the Grizzlies to battle hard until the final moments, grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-17 | Capitals v. Lightning OVER 5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* Goin Over Total is the over Capitals/Lightning (7:05 EST). The 45-17-3-5 Washington Capitals are in Tampa Bay to take on the 34-27-6-3 Lightning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has shootout written all over it. Washington will be eager here to return to the winners circle after a 2-1 OT loss at home to Nashville. In fact, the Capitals have now lost five of their last six. Tampa can empathize and will be equally motivated this evening after a humbling 5-0 home loss to Toronto. Despite that lop-sided blowout, the Bolts have in fact played pretty well of late, having won four of their last five. I’ll point out that the “over” is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between the clubs in Tampa Bay. Washington averages 3.17 GPG and concedes 2.16. That defense has looked pretty mediocre over the last five games though. Tampa averages 2.67 GPG and concedes 2.70. I’ll point out though that the Capitals have seen the total go over the number in 12 of 15 road games this year with a total of 5 or less and in five of eight after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest, while the Lightning have seen the total eclipse the posted number in 12 of 18 this year after allowing four goals or more and in 12 of 20 after a loss by two goals or more. Washington is chomping at the bit to break out of its funk, while the Lightning are also making a push towards the postseason. I believe everything points to a higher-scoring affair, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-17 | Northwestern v. Gonzaga -10.5 | Top | 73-79 | Loss | -107 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* SECOND ROUND NCAA SIDE OF THE YEAR is on Gonzaga (5:15 EST). The No. 1 Gonzaga Bulldogs get ready to battle the No. 8 Northwestern Wildcats on Saturday night in the second round of the NCAA tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Bulldogs. Northwestern advanced by upsetting Vanderbilt, led by Bryant McIntosh who poured in 25 points. Gonzaga advanced by crushing South Dakota by 20 in the first round. The Bulldogs have now won 33 straight. Gonzaga features the No. 1 ranked defense, while the offense is ranked 13th. Nigel Williams-Goss has averaged 16.6 points, 5.8 boards, 4.8 assists and 1.7 steals in 33 games this year. The Wildcats simply do not have an answer for Williams-Goss, who I’m expecting to have another big game here. I’ll point out as well that Northwestern is just 1-2 ATS in its last three against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest, while Gonzaga is 22-8 ATS as a favorite this season. I think the No. 1 seed sends a message to the rest of the tournament with a full four quarter effort and expect it to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-18-17 | Wisconsin v. Villanova UNDER 129 | Top | 65-62 | Win | 100 | 27 h 21 m | Show |
My 10* SECOND ROUND NCAA TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the under Wisconsin/Villanova (2:40 EST). The Wisconsin Badgers get ready to battle the Villanova Wildcats in the second round of the NCAA tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The Badgers advanced by beating Virginia Tech 84-74 on Thursday, while Villanova pulled away for a 76-56 win over St. Mary’s on Thursday. Wisconsin averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding just 61.5. Bronson Koenig had 28 points in the opening round victory. Villanova averages 77.6 PPG and concedes just 62.6. The Wildcats held Mount St. Mary’s to just 36.8 percent from the floor, including only 5 of 21 from range. Josh Hart leads all scorers with 18.7 points and 6.5 boards per game. These are two average offenses going head-to-head on Saturday afternoon. This is also two superb defenses battling it out in the second round. I think points are going to be at a premium as I expect these two defensive oriented clubs to grind it out to a classic, lower-scoring under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Kent State v. UCLA -18 | 80-97 | Loss | -102 | 36 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* END-OF-NIGHT BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT is on UCLA (9:55 EST). The 22-13 Kent State Golden Flashes get ready to battle the 29-4 UCLA Bruins in the first round of the NCAA tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the favorite. Kent State won the MAC Tournament title and the automatic bid to the Big Dance after beating Akron 70-65 on Saturday, while UCLA fell to No. 7 Arizona 86-75 in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals on Friday. The Golden Flashes average 76.9 PPG and concede 72.3. Jaylin Walker led the way with 30 points and six boards in the win in the championship game. UCLA is No. 1 in the nation in averaging 90.4 PPG, while allowing 75.3. Isaac Hamilton had 20 points in the loss to the Wildcats. i’ll point out that Kent State is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while UCLA is 10-3 ATS this year in non-conference contests and 4-2 ATS in all neutral court affairs. The Golden Flashes had a great tournament run, but I have a hard time seeing Kent matching pace with the high-powered Bruins. Lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Sabres v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Sabres/Ducks (10:05 EST). The 28-30-6-6 Buffalo Sabres are in Anaheim to take on the 37-23-8-2 Ducks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has offensive shootout written all over it. Buffalo looks to get back on track after a 2-0 loss in LA last night. The Sabres have now lost ten of their last 12. Over that stretch they’ve averaged 3.23 GPG, but allowed 3.43. Anaheim is 23-11 at home this year. It averages 2.58 GPG and concedes 2.49. Buffalo isn’t out of the playoff picture yet, but it needs to start stringing some wins together immediately. I’ll point out that the Sabres have in fact seen the total go over the number in 16 of 24 non-conference games this season, in ten of 13 when playing on back to back days and in nine of 14 in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while Anaheim has seen the total fly above the posted number in four of its last six non-conference contest. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Michigan State +2.5 v. Miami (FL) | Top | 78-58 | Win | 100 | 35 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Michigan State (9:20 EST). The 19-14 Michigan State Spartans get ready to battle the 21-11 Miami Florida Hurricanes in the opening round of the NCAA tournament on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors MSU. The Hurricanes were 10-8 in the ACC and lost to UNC in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Tournament contest. The Spartans were 10-8 in league play and fell to Minnesota in the Quarterfinals of the Big Ten Tourney. Miles Bridges had 20 points for the Spartans in the Quarterfinal loss. The Spartans averaged 71.4 PPG and allowed 68.4 this season. Miami averages 69.4 PPG and concedes 63.7 Davon Reed finished with seven points in the loss to the Tar Heels. I’ll point out that Michigan State is 3-0 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or less, 6-2 ATS off a loss against a conference rival and 4-1 ATS against good defensive teams which allow 64 points or less per contest, while Miami is just 2-8 ATS in non-conference games and 2-4 ATS in all neutral court affairs this season. I think the Spartans are the better coached team and expect them to at the very least, take this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Rockets v. Pelicans +5 | Top | 112-128 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New Orleans Pelicans (8:05 EST). The 47-21 Houston Rockets are in New Orleans to take on the 27-41 Pelicans and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. I think the Rockets are poised for a letdown here after three straight wins, including a victory over the Cavs in that stretch. New Orleans though will be hungry here, it had won two straight before then suffering a loss at red hot Miami on Wednesday. Houston is in third in the West, with no real shot at being able to catch either the Warriors or Spurs. New Orleans still has a playoff shot, but its hopes are dwindling. This is the most important stretch of the enitre season for the Pelicans, with three straight at home. I’ll point out though that Houston has in fact struggled in this spot already this year, going just 11-16 ATS after a win by ten points or more and only 4-5 ATS after scoring 130 points or more. And note that New Orleans has excelled in this position, going 14-8 ATS this season against poor defensive clubs which allow 106 points per contest. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’ll recommend grabbing the points in the end. Play on New Orleans. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Troy State +20 v. Duke | Top | 65-87 | Loss | -104 | 33 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* NCAA OPENING ROUND DOG OF THE YEAR is on Troy (7:20 EST). The 22-14 Troy Trojans are looking to upset No. 2 seed Duke and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. I’m not predicting an outright upset or anything, but I do think that the Trojans own an offense capable of keeping it a lot closer than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. Duke could get caught looking past its lowly opponent today, after going 11-7 in the ACC regular season and finishing fifth overall, the Blue Devils would steam roll through the conference tournament, en route to the title over Notre Dame. Troy won the Sun Belt title to punch its ticket to the Big Dance. The Trojans average 78.4 PPG and concede 71.1. Jordan Varnado leads the team with 16.5 poitns, 7.1 boards and 1.4 blocks per contest. Duke averages 80.7 points and concedes 69.8. This team is loaded and had four players that average in double figures. I’ll point out though that Troy is 11-3 ATS in its last 14 as an underdog, while Duke is already 0-2 ATS this year as a neutral court favorite of 12.5 points or more. The Blue Devils don’t play defense very well and they very easily could have already peaked. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Iona v. Oregon -14.5 | Top | 77-93 | Win | 100 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
My 10* OPENING ROUND BLOWOUT is on Oregon (2:00 EST). The 22-12 Iona Gaels are getting ready to battle the 29-5 Oregon Ducks on Friday night in the opening round of the NCAA tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Ducks. The Gaels beat Siena 87-86 in OT in the MAAC touranment final last Monday, while Oregon had its eight game win streak snapped with an 83-80 setback to No. 7 Arizona in the Pac-12 Tourney Final. Iona got 21 points and ten boards from Jordan Washington in the win over the Saints. The Gaels average 80.5 PPG and concede 76.4. Oregon averages 79.1 PPG and concedes just 65 (33rd in the country). Dillon Brooks leads the nightly charge with 16.3 PPG. I’ll point out that Iona is just 1-5 ATS in its last six following a SU win and 0-4 ATS in its last four NCAA Tournament contests, while Oregon is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 NCAA Tournament games. Chris Boucher is out for Oregon, but the Ducks are deep and have stifiling defensive attack. Iona is unable to stop anyone and I’m expecting it to fall away as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-17-17 | Oklahoma State v. Michigan UNDER 154 | Top | 91-92 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the under Oklahoma State/Michigan (12:15 EST). The 20-12 Oklahoma State Cowboys are ready to battle the 24-11 Michigan Wolverines in the first round of the NCAA tournament and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Michigan rolled through the Big Ten and beat favored Wisconsin by 15 in the Conference tournament final. The Wolverines haven’t had issues scoring this year, but it’s been their defense which lacks in their losses. But the 56 points they gave up to the Badgers shows just how far the team has come on the defensive end of the court as well. The Cowboys were all over the map as far as their game-to-game consistency was concerned this year. Six straight conference losses were followed by ten victories in their next 11. However, OKS would then lose its next three, including a 92-83 setback to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament game. I’ll point out though that Oklahoma State has seen the total go under the number in seven of 11 as an underdog this year, while Michigan has seen the total dip below the posted number in 17 of its last 22 in the first round of tournaments. I think these teams come out a bit flat footed in the early contest and this total sneaks below once it’s all said and done. Play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-17 | Virginia Tech +5.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 74-84 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 25 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Virginia Tech (9:40 EST). The 22-10 Virginia Tech Hokies are in Wisconsin to take on the 25-9 Badgers on Thursday night in the first round of the NCAA tournament and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, because for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the underdog. The Hokies won six of their last nine, ending with a 74-68 loss to FSU in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals last week. The Badgers had their three-game win streak snapped in a listless 71-56 setback to Michigan in the Big Ten Tournament title game on Sunday. I simply feel that Virignia Tech has the offensive firepower to test the Badgers’ stout defense. Note that the Hokies average 79.3 PPG, while conceding 74.4. Zach LeDay leads the nightly charge with 16.3 points and 7.4 boards per game. Wisconsin started the year 20-3, but then struggled down the stretch by going 5-6 over its final 11. The Badgers average 72.4 PPG, but make up for it by conceding just 61.1. Bronson Koenig leads the way with 14.1 PPG. I’ll point out though that Virginia Tech is already 4-1 ATS in all neutral court affairs this year and 11-4 ATS when playing the role of underdog, while Wisconsin is just 3-4 ATS in all neutral court games and just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as the favorite. For all of the reasons listed above, I’m grabbing the points. Play on the Hokies. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-17 | VCU +4.5 v. St. Mary's | Top | 77-85 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
My 10* TOURNEY SIDE OF THE MONTH is on VCU (7:20 EST). The 26-8 VCU Rams are getting ready to face the 28-4 Saint Mary’s Gaels in the opening round of the NCAA tournament on Thursday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Virginia Commonwealth. Saint Mary’s was second best to Gonzaga in the WCC this year and would lose in the Championship game to the Bulldogs. VCU was the second-best team in its conference as well and it would lose in the A-10 Championship to Rhode Island. It’s a matchup of two teams looking to bounce back and I’m expecting an all out battle until the final moments. One player to keep your eyes on for the Rams is Jequan Lewis, who led the way with 14.7 points, 4.6 assists and 1.7 steals per game this season. VCU’s normally stout defense stumbled uncharacteristically in the loss to Rhode Island, but it was a strength of the team throughout the season, allowing just 66.3 PPG, ranked 44th in the country. The Gaels got destroyed 74-56 in the Championship game last Tuesday. Calvin Hermanson was a bright spot with 14 points in the setback. Saint Mary’s would go on to allow the Bulldogs to shoot 50 percent from the floor, which was out of the norm, as they allowed the second fewest points in the nation this year, allowing only 56.5 PPG. I’ll point out though that VCU is 3-0 ATS in its last three NCAA tournament games, while Saint Mary’s is just 1-2 ATS in its last three NCAA tournament contests and only 1-2 ATS this year after scoring 60 points or less. I think Saint Mary’s is the better team, but it’s not THAT much better. VCU won’t be rolling over here and it will believe it has every opportunity to win this one straight up as well. The Rams’ defense has been suffocating as well this season and they have the offense to match pace. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-17 | Maple Leafs v. Lightning -130 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -130 | 22 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (7:35 EST). The 31-23-14 Toronto Maple Leafs are at Tampa Bay to take on the 34-26-9 Lightning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Leafs got hammered 7-2 in Florida on Tuesday, goaltender Frederik Andersen gave up three goals on eight shots, before getting pulled for Curtis McElhinney. Tampa Bay comes in with momentum though, most recently picking up a hard-fought 2-1 OT win over the surging Senators. Victor Hedman got the goal in the extra fame and goaltender Andrei Vasileskiy made 31 stops to help his team win its fourth straight. With a home game against the Blackhawks on Saturday, I think the Leafs get caught “looking ahead” here. Tampa has quietly been dominating of late and I don’t think is getting nearly enough respect from the books. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-17 | Thunder v. Raptors -2.5 | Top | 123-102 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Raptors (7:05 EST). The 38-29 Oklahoma City Thunder are in Toronto to take on the 39-28 Raptors and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. OKC comes in complacent in my opinion after rolling to a third straight win, most recently a 122-104 road victory in Brooklyn on Tuesday. The Raptors had lost four of six before smashing Dallas 100-78 on Monday and suffice it to say, with two nights off to focus and prepare, I’m looking for the home side to build off that impressive performance. The Thunder average 106.6 PPG and concede 106.2. The error of margin is obviously extremely slim. Russell Westbrook leads the way wih 31.8 points, 10.6 boards and 10.1 assists per game. Toronto averages 107.2 PPG and concedes 103.4. DeMar DeRozan leads the nightly charge with 27.2 points and 5.4 boards per game. I’ll point out that OKC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games and only 1-5 ATS in its last six on the road against teams with a winning home record, while Toronto is 8-1 ATS in its last nine when playing on two days rest and 4-1 ATS in its last five against the Western Conference. Kyle Lowry is still missing from the mix in Toronto, but despite that, the Raptors are still the deeper team. Serge Ibaka gets a shot at his old club tonight, so look for the home side to come out extra motivated. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-17 | North Carolina Wilmington v. Virginia -7 | 71-76 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Virginia (12:40 EST). The 29-5 NC Wilmington Seahawks get ready to battle the 22-10 Virginia Cavaliers at 12:40 EST on Thursday to open the NCAA Tournament for real and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Cavs. The Seahawks won the regular season and tournament title in the Colonial conference. NC Wilmington averaged 84 PPG and allowed 75.3 on neutral courts this year. Over their last six games though the Seahawks have given up an average of 77.3 points. NC Wilmington has six players that average at least 7.8 PPG, led by CJ Bryce with 17.6 PPG. Virginia has won four of its last five and owns the nation’s No. 1 defense, allowing just 55.6 PPG. The Cavs average just 66.7, but they catch a break today clearly in facing the Seahawks mediocre defense. I’ll point out as well that UNC Wilmington is just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven following an ATS victory, while Virginia is 16-7 ATS in its last 23 following a SU loss. The Cavs have a weak offense, but they’ve played well against weaker defenses. The Seahawks have played exceptionally well this year, but now face the No. 1 defense in the entire country. I think Virginia pulls away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-16-17 | Princeton +7 v. Notre Dame | 58-60 | Win | 100 | 25 h 1 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Princeton (12:15 EST). The 23-6 Princeton Tigers are ready to battle the 25-9 Notre Dame Fighting Irish at noon EST on opening Thursday of the NCAA Tournament and while I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can, because for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the underdog. Princeton knows how to win. The Tigers come into the Tournament having won 19 straight after beating Yale in the championship game of the Ivy League Tournamant Final. ND won eight of ten to close the year, falling 75-69 to the Blue Devils in the ACC Touranment title game on Saturday. Princeton went undefeated in league play and held Yale to just 37.7 percent shooting in the championship game. Myles Stephens had 23 points and eight boards. The Tigers average 72.1 PPG and concede just 61.6, ranked tenth overall in the country. The Fighting Irish average 78 PPG and allow 69.2. Notre Dame though allowed Duke to shoot a smoking 60.8 percent from the floor in the title game. Bonzie Colson leads all players with 17.5 points and 10.2 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Princeton is 8-5 ATS this year after allowing 60 points or less and 2-1 ATS in all neutral court affairs this season, while Notre Dame is just 3-4 in non-conference contests and just 1-2 ATS in its last three neutral court contests. The Tigers are pretty thin after their starting five, but they’ll be leaving everything they have on the floor tonight, as there’s no point in trying to reserve anything at this point. Notre Dame has looked brilliant at times this year, but has also struggled in the “bigger” moments. I think Princeton takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-17 | Bucks v. Clippers -8 | Top | 97-96 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 17 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Clippers (10:35 EST). The 32-34 Milwaukee Bucks are in LA to take on the 40-27 Clippers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Milwaukee’s big six-game SU/ATS win streak is over and suffice it to say, I think the team will suffer a predictable letdown here as it hits the West Coast to take on a revenge minded Clippers team. The Bucks got smashed 113-93 in Memphis, allowing the Grizzlies to shoot 52 percent from the floor and go 14 of 27 from range. Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 18 points. The Clippers will be in a foul mood after falling 114-108 in Utah on Monday. It was a tough matchup, as LA had won nine straight in Utah previous to that, so the Jazz were extra fired up for that one. Chris Paul had 33 points in the setback. I’ll point out though that Milwaukee is just 4-11 ATS in its last 14 following a straight-up loss and just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a straight up loss of more than ten points, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Milwaukee beat LA, 112-101 in Milwaukee back on March 3rd. Suffice it to say, I think its “payback” time. Milwaukee has only covered in four of its last 14 trips to LA. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-17 | Grizzlies v. Bulls | 98-91 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:00 EST). The 37-30 Memphis Grizzlies are in Chicago to take on the 32-35 Bulls and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Grizzlies broke a five game losing streak with a convincing 113-93 win at home on Monday over the Bucks and I think the visitors carry that momentum over here. Chicago had also lost five straight before managing a 115-109 road win over Charlotte on Monday. Note that this is a revenge game for Memphis after it fell 108-104 at home to the Bulls back on January 15th. Memphis only averages 101.4 PPG, but the 100.7 they concede is ranked fourth in the league. Marc Gasol averages a team high 20.1 PPG. Chicago averages just 102 PPG and concedes 103.3. Jimmy Butler leads everyone with 23.4 points and 6.2 boards per game, while Dwayne Wade adds 18.8 points and 4.5 boards per contest. I’ll point out though that Memhis is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 against teams with a losing straight-up record, while Chicago is 0-5 ATS in its last five when playing on one days rest. I have a hard time seeing the Bulls post another 115 points like they did against the Hornets in their last game, note that previously they had not exceeded 95 during their five-game losing streak. I think the Grizzlies find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-17 | Blazers +10.5 v. Spurs | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Portland Trailblazers (8:00 EST). The 29-37 Portland Trailblazers are in San Antonio to take on the 52-14 Spurs and while I won’t be so bold as to predict an outright upset, I do think that the hungry visitors can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Blazers are 2.5 games behind Denver for the final playoff spot in the West and were likely caught “looking ahead” to this game against the Spurs after suffering a poor 100-77 loss in New Orleans just last night. Suffice it to say, I think the Blazers bounce back here after that listless performance. Damian Lillard was a bright spot with 29 points. San Antonio on the other hand looks poised for a letdown here in my opinion, it’s won 11 of its last 12 after beating Atlanta earlier in the week. Kawhi Leonard had 31 points in Monday’s 107-99 win over the Hawks. I’ll point out though that Portland is 12-8 ATS this season against good offense clubs, while San Antonio is interestingly just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with losing records. To say this is a “revenge” game for the Blazers would be an understatement as they’ve dropped five straight in the series and both so far this season. I like the visitors to play with a lot more intensity tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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03-15-17 | Colorado v. UCF -2 | Top | 74-79 | Win | 100 | 34 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* NIT OPENING ROUND SIDE OF THE YEAR is on Central Florida. The 19-14 Colorado Buffaloes are battling UCF in the opener of the NIT on Wednesday and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Knights. The Buffs were eliminated from the Pac-12 Tournament by Arizona, while the Knights lost to SMU in the semi-final of the AAC tournament. Colorado finished the season with an offense and defense each ranked outside the top 100 in the nation. The Knights ran into a tough Mustangs team in their 70-59 loss in the ACC tournament. But the 22 wins on the year was a school best. BJ Taylor had 20 points in the eventual loss. I’ll point out though that Coloardo is just 1-4 ATS in its last five allowing more than 90 points in its previous game, while UCF is 4-0 ATS this year following an ATS loss and 4-1 ATS in its last five at home. Colorado has to travel across the country after a lackluster performance in its conference tournament and I think it’s overmatched here anyways. UCF put together a great overall season and making it to the semi-finals of the ACC Tournament is a big accomplishment. UCF is at home and I think will take full advantage of this opportunity. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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