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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-14-17 | Yankees -133 v. Angels | 5-7 | Loss | -133 | 26 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Yankees (10:05 EST) I like the Yanks to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-2 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Michael Pineda (7-3, 3.39 ERA) who went seven innings and gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight in a win over the Red Sox on Thursday. Pineda had suffered his worst start of the year previous to that gem and now owns an impressive 9.4 K/9 ratio. The home side counters with Matt Shoemaker (6-3, 4.22) who earned a win over the Astros on Friday despite giving up four runs over seven frames of work. Shoemaker has looked a lot better of late after a shaky start to the campaign, but I’ll point out that the Angels have struggled mightily in this spot for bettors all season, going just 23-28 (-4.2 units) against right-handed starters and 0-2 (-2 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. And note that the Yanks have been dominant in this spot, going 29-16 (+11.5 units) against right-handed starters and 25-16 (+6 units) in all “night” contests. I like Pineda to match Shoemaker inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I absolutely feel that the advantage goes to the hard-hitting Yankees. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-17 | Mariners v. Twins -141 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -141 | 24 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* SItuational Stunner is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST). I like the Twins to build off yesterday’s 20-7 beatdown victory and to find a way to get the job done on Wednesday with their “ace” on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio (2-1, 2.79 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits over five innings in a 9-2 win over Tampa on Saturday. I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent outing though as previous to that he’d been shelled for ten runs over 11 innings spanning two starts. Note that he’s been particularly average on the road as well with a 1-1, 4.85 record/ERA. The home side counters with Ervin Santana (8-3, 2.20) who threw a four-hit shutout in a win at San Francisco on Friday. Previous to that he suffered his worst outing of the year (seven runs in four innings), but he bounced back easily to post his league-leading third shutout of the season. Note that Santana has been particularly tough at home as well with a 3-2, 2.63 record/ERA this season. I’ll also point out that Seattle is just 21-23 (-2.3 units) in all “night” games this year, while Minnesota is 20-11 (+10.2 units) in the same position. I’m giving Santana the big nod on the bump in this matchup and that makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-17 | Reds v. Padres -122 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the San Diego Padres (3:40 EST). I like the home side to build off last night’s 6-2 victory. I had a play on the “over” in that one and it would go on to “push” unfortuantely. Regardless, while neither of these starting pitchers instills much confidence, I think the home side has the advantage. The visitors hand the ball to Amir Garrett (3-5, 7.40 ERA) who took a line-drive off his pitching hand in his last start and was pulled after just two innings of work. Garrett has been cleared to play this afternoon, but so far he’s been a complete disaster this season. Previous to the shortened start he gave up nine runs off seven hits and three walks over 2.2 innings in a loss to the Braves. Note that Garrett has been particularly horrible on the road as well this season, going 2-3 with an atrocious 8.14 ERA. The home side counters with Jhoulys Chacin (5-5, 5.35) who comes in off a gem against Kansas City on Friday. Chacin could very well be the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler in the game right now, posting a 10.27 ERA on the road, compared to a 1.58 ERA across 40 innings in front of the home town crowd. I think Chacin should be a much bigger favorite as he’s been absolutely “lights out” at home this year. Value to the home side, play on the Padres. Good luck…Larry |
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06-14-17 | A's v. Marlins OVER 9 | Top | 6-11 | Win | 100 | 16 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* Daytime Dominator on the over A’s/Marlins (12:10 EST). These teams can struggle to put runs on the board at times, but I think all signs point to a higher-scoring affair in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to rookie Daniel Gossett, who makes his MLB debut this afternoon. Gossett has posted a 3.41 ERA and 54/19 K/W over 60.2 innings of work. The home side counters with Edinson Volquez (3-7, 3.41) who comes in off back-to-back gems, throwing a no-hitter and then following it up with seven scoreless against the Marlins on Monday. Are these numbers sustainable? I absolutely do not think so. The veteran had lost seven in a row before this recent outburst of competence and I expect some immediate regression. I’ll also point out that Oakland has seen the total go over the number in four of five interleague games this year, while Miami has seen the total go over in 27 of 47 against right-handed starters this season. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-17 | Reds v. Padres OVER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 32 h 51 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the “over” Reds/Padres (10:10 EST). A couple of inconsistent starters collide on Tuesday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a classic “slug-fest!” The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Scott Feldman (5-4, 4.09 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the season, holding the Cardinals scoreless over seven frames. I’ll caution in reading too much into one decent outing though, previous to that gem, Feldman had been lit up for nine runs over 9.1 innings spanning two starts. And note that Feldman has consistently been at his most inconsistent on the road, just 2-2 with a ballooned 5.26 ERA to this point. The home side counters with Clayton Richard (4-7, 4.54) who most recently allowed four runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five in a loss to Arizona on Thursday. Note that Richard has been particularly average at home this year, going 3-3 with a pedestrian 4.70 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Cincinnati has seen the total go over the number in 10 of 11 this year after three or more consecutive losses and in 22 of 31 following a loss, while San Diego has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 20 of 32 in front of them home town crowd already this year. For all the reasons listed above, play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-17 | Cubs -130 v. Mets | 14-3 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST). I like the Cubs to bounce back after yesterday’s 6-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (3-4, 4.13 ERA) who most recently gave up four earned runs off six hits and a walk while striking out five over five innings in a loss to the Rockies on Thursday. Letser’s peripherals and track record suggest he can return to form though. The home side counters with Zack Wheeler (3-3, 3.45 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and three walks over seven innings in a no-decision against Texas on Wednesday. Wheeler has been decent, not great this season. I’ll point out though that from a trend based stand-point, they don’t get much stronger than this, as note that the Cubs are 56-24 (+20.6 units) in their last 80 as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while the Mets are just 4-8 (-5.4 units) this year at home with a money-line between +130 and -130. I like Lester to get back on track and outduel his counterpart. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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06-13-17 | Rays v. Blue Jays -140 | 8-1 | Loss | -140 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The vistors hand the ball to Jacob Faria (1-0, 1.42 ERA), who was recalled from Triple-A Durham to make this start. Faria gets another crack at the big club with Matt Andriese back on the DL. The home side counters with Marco Estrada (4-4, 4.04) who has now been rumored to be on the trading block. Estrada has been solid this year, logging a team-high 78 innings and posting a sharp 90/20 K/W through 13 starts. If the Jays continue to fade, Estrada could fetch a good price. Note that Estrada is 2-1 with a very respectable 3.89 ERA at home so far this year. This is a tough spot for Faria. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price, play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 120-129 | Push | 0 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). With their backs against the wall, I think the Cavaliers will at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with what I feel to be a very healthy spread afforded to them in this one. Down 3-0, the Cavs came out like gang-busters and never looked in their big Game 4 victory and clearly there won’t be any change in game-plan tonight. Cleveland will have to throw everything it has at the Warriors once again if it has any hopes of taking this one back to its own floor. The Cavs though finally solved the Warriors defense after setting several offensive records in Game 4. One of the biggest differences though was the play of the Cavs role players, who finally stepped up and made their presence known. Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” I’m not. I simply feel that the Cavs made some big time adjustments in Game 4 and I believe they’re going to take what they learned and make it extremely difficult on the Warriors again tonight. I’ll also point out that Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four after scoring 115 points or more, while Golden State is just 1-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more and only 5-7 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavs. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-17 | Mariners v. Twins -118 | Top | 14-3 | Loss | -118 | 26 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Minnesota Twins (8:10 EST). Neither starter instills much confidence, but I think the home side will bounce back here after falling 13-8 in San Francisco yesterday afternoon. I had a play on the Giants in that one. I had a play on Minnesota on Saturday though and it would go on to cash as a slight dog. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Yovani Gallardo (2-6, 6.26 ERA) who was fortunate to receive a no-decision against the Twins on Wednesday after giving up five earned runs off six hits over seven innings. It was the second consecutive start that he’s given up five runs. Note that Gallardo is just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.55 ERA on the road so far this season. The home side counters with Adalberto Mejia (1-1, 4.18) who threw opposite Gallardo last week and who gave up three runs with five strikeouts over five innings. Since returning to the rotation in May, Mejia has posted a respectable 3.52 ERA and 19:9 K/W in that span. I’ll point out as well that Seattle is just 20-23 (-3.5 units) this year in all “night” games, while Minnesota is 20-10 (+11.4 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-17 | Cubs +114 v. Mets | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Chicago Cubs (7:10 EST). Chicago broke a four-game losing slide with a victory over the Rockies last night and I like the defending champs to find a way to get the job done tonight as well. The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (4-6, 5.12 ERA) who gave up five runs while striking out six with no walks over six innings in a loss to the Fish on Wednesday. Lackey is now clearly struggling at 38 years old, but his long-term track record suggests that he can still bounce back (it’s worth noting as well that he’s elevated his strikeout rate from last year, which isn’t typical of pitchers that are on the decline). The home side counters with the equally as struggling Jacob DeGrom (4-3, 4.75) who was shelled for eight runs off ten hits in a 10-8 loss to Texas on Tuesday. DeGrom’s peripherals suggest that he’s likely been the victim of some bad luck (3.18 xFIP), but that still doesn’t explain how awful he’s been of late, allowing 15 runs over his last eight innings of work. Note that DeGrom is 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.08 ERA at home this year. I think Lackey can match DeGrom inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the advantage goes to the hungry Cubs’ line-up. Play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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06-12-17 | Rockies +114 v. Pirates | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
This is a 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Colorado Rockies (7:05 EST). I think this pitching matchup favors the Rockies. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (7-3, 3.21 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits with five K’s over six innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Indians on Wednesday. Freeland has been better on the road than at home (not surprising obviously) this season, going 4-0 with a 3.18 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (2-1, 3.31) who will make his first start since May 3rd after undergoing surgery for testicular cancer. On Wednesday he threw six innings of work with Triple-A Indianapolis and gave up five runs. Note that Taillon owns a poor 4.76 ERA in front of the home town crowd to this point. I’ll point out as well that Colorado has in fact performed very well for bettors in this spot all year, going 29-15 (+13.5 units) against right-handed starters, while Pittsburgh is just 6-11 (-4.8 units) against southpaws. This is a tough opponent for Taillon to face in his first start back from the DL, while Freeland comes into this one on top form. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the hard-hitting Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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06-11-17 | Penguins v. Predators -135 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -135 | 57 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Nashville Predators (8:00 EST). I had a play on the Penguins in Game 5. So far the home side has won every game in this series and I’m fully expecting that pattern to continue tonight. Pens’ netminder Matt Murray has been great at home and atrocious on the road. The same can be said of Preds’ goalie Pekka Rinne as well though, as he’s been horrible in Pittsburgh, but almost unbeatable in Nashville. These are two teams which feed off the home crowd and there’s no doubt that Nashville is a tough arena to play in. And I’ll point out that this is a spot in which the Penguins have struggled in throughout the postseason, going a poor 6-7 (-1.2 units) when leading in a playoff series, while Nashville is 8-4 (+4 units) in its last 12 when trailing in a playoff series and 14-7 (+6 units) this year after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Lay the price, play on the Predators. Good luck…Larry |
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06-11-17 | Reds v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | 7-9 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 60 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Reds/Dodgers (4:10 EST). A couple of competent starters going head to head on Sunday afternoon and all signs point to a “duel” in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Tim Adleman (4-2, 4.42 ERA) who comes in off a gem against St. Louis on Tuesday, giving up one run off three scattered hits and two walks while striking out seven over seven innings. Adleman comes into this contest on top form, having produced three straight quality outings. While his 4.42 ERA is far from elite, his 1.19 WHIP is quite good. The home side counters with Hyun-Jin Ryu (2-6, 4,08) who has earned another start in the rotation after his solid play of late. Ryu struggled to open the season, but he’s since rebounded to allow just seven earned runs in his last four appearances spanning 22.1 innings. Note that his ERA drops to a respectable 3.58 in front of the home town crowd this year. I expect these two hungry hurlers to battle each other deep and look for this one to fall under the posted number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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06-11-17 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the JAYS on the RUN-LINE (4:10 EST). Toronto opened this series with a 4-2 loss and then rebounded last night with a 4-2 victory. I think JA Happ can match his hard-throwing counterpart today and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the recommend laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. Happ (0-4, 5.33 ERA) is still trying to work his way back into game shape after returning from injury. Most recently he gave up five runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Oakland on Monday. Last year Happ won 20 games. The tools are in place to return to form though, so I haven’t given up on him quite yet. The home side counters with the undefeated James Paxton (5-0, 1.69) who gave up three earned runs off five hits over five innings in a 12-3 win over Minnesota on Tuesday. Paxton labored through the start, needing 96 pitches to get through the five frames. And note that it was the second time in his last three starts that he’s issued multiple free passes. The first two games of this series have featured some sharp pitching performances and all signs point to another duel tonight. In a contest which I foresee being decided late or in extra innings, I’m laying the price for the 1.5 runs of insurance. Good luck…Larry |
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06-11-17 | Twins v. Giants -119 | 8-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST). I had a play on the Twins last night and they’d go on to win 3-2 as fairly nice underdogs. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to bounce back in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Nik Turley (0-0, 0.00 ERA) who has been recalled from Triple-A Rochester to make this start. Turley has been great between Double and Triple-A, but clearly he’s been thrown to the wolves in his first start in the big leagues tonight. The home side counters with veteran Matt Cain (3-5, 4.73) who comes in off an outing to forget in which he gave up five runs off ten hits and two walks over five innings in a 5-2 loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Cain opened the season promisingly, but is now scuffling. It’s important to note though that he’s 0-3 with a ballooned 8.40 ERA on the road, but 3-2 with a tiny 1.82 ERA. in front of the home town crowd. I like Cain to continue his dominant ways in San Francisco and expect Turley to struggle in this difficult atmosphere. All signs point to a big bounce back today for the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-17 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks. I think this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (1-0, 1.83 ERA) who gave up two runs off seven hits and one walk over five innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Guerra entered that contest with a sparkling 0.95 WHIP, but the ten baserunners he allowed were more than in any of his other starts this season. While his ERA remains elite, his 15:9 K/W ratio over 19.2 innings point to some immediate regression. The home side counters with Zack Godley (1-1, 2.39), who returns to the big club after a stint in Triple-A. The 27 year old has thrown well for his team, posting a 2.39 ERA and 32:12 K/W ratio through 37.2 innings (six starts). Note that Godley has been particularly effective at home as well this year, going 1-0 with a tiny 1.93 ERA. Guerra’s numbers are unsustainable, a fact backed up by his suspect peripherals. Godley is the correct call here. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-17 | Tigers v. Red Sox UNDER 9 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the under Tigers/Red Sox (7:15 EST). The Red Sox won 5-3 yesterday, the total staying below the posted number of 11 in that one. These are two offensively explosive clubs, but with each side’s “ace” taking the mound on Saturday night, I’m expecting another lower-scoring “duel” once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Justin Verlander (4-4, 4.63 ERA) who was pulled from his last start early after some tightness in his groin against the White Sox on Sunday. Before he left he gave up two runs over two innings. Verlander has cooled off after a great start to the year, but he’ll look to better his 3-2, 4.54 ERA record/ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Chris Sale (7-2, 2.89) who most recently gave up three runs off six hits with one walk while striking out nine over six innings in a 7-3 win over Baltimore on Sunday. Sale gave up all three runs in the first inning, but then settled down and shut the door the rest of the way. Note that Sale has been particularly effective at home this year, going 4-1 with a tiny 2.23 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Detroit has seen the total go under the number in 13 of 22 already this year against clubs with winning records, while Boston has seen the total go under in ten of 18 this season against teams with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-17 | Oakland Athletics - Game #2 v. Tampa Bay Rays - Game #2 -105 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Tampa Bay Rays (5:10 EST). I had a play on the Rays last night and they’d go on to easily win 13-4. I look for the home side to build off that convincing performance and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night on Saturday as well. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (5-3, 3.81 ERA) who most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits and three walks over six innings in a 5-3 win over Toronto on Monday. Manaea has looked sharp of late, but note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent when on the road, going just 2-3 with a pedestrian 4.44 ERA. The home side counters with Matt Andriese (5-1, 3.45) who returns from the DL after a mild groin strain. Andriese has pitched 11 games and to go along with his respectable 3.45 ERA, he also owns a 1.28 WHIP to go along with 54 K’s and 21 walks. I’ll also point out that Oakland is just 4-13 (-9.2 units) this season on the road when there money line is between +125 to -125, while Tampa Bay is 11-9 (+1.4 units) this year at home when the money line is between +125 to -125. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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06-10-17 | Twins +142 v. Giants | 3-2 | Win | 142 | 8 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Minnesota Twins (4:05 EST). I’m not one to “flip flop” on a team from game-to-game, but MLB is a different “beast” because for the most part, everything comes down to the starting pitching, so each contest must be evaluated seperately. And in this case, I definitely think that Jose Berrios has a big advantage over his volatile counterpart today. Berrios (4-1, 2.76 ERA) bounced back from his worst start ever as a pro against the red hot Astros to pitch a gem in a 3-2 win against the hard-hitting Angels on Sunday, going six frames and allowing two runs and six hits while striking out four and walking two. So far Berrios has allowed ten runs over 32.2 innings of work with a 2.76 ERA. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.70 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Jeff Samardzija (2-7, 4.29) who gave up two runs off six hits and no walks over 7.2 innings in a win over the Brewers on Monday, also striking out ten. It was Samardzija’s best start of the year and like his counterpart today, he was coming off a complete disaster of an outing previous to his latest gem. “The Shark” has been better of late, but note that he’s just 1-3 with a pedestrian 4.31 ERA at home this season. I’ll also point out that Minnesota has done extremely well in this spot for bettors this year by going 23-20 (+3.4 units) against right-handed starters, while San Francisco is just 16-24 (-9.9 units) this season in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Twins. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-17 | Twins v. Giants -109 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -109 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I like San Francisco to build off its 9-5 win over the Brewers yesterday and I expect Minnesota to stumble in the opener of this three-game interleague series after scoring the 2-1 victory in Seattle late last night. The visitors hand the ball to Ervin Santana (7-3, 2.44 ERA) who gave up seven earned runs, including three homers over just four innings in a loss to the Angels on Saturday. Santana struggled with control and only struck out two. Santana’s earlier remarkable numbers were clearly unsustainable and I think he’s in line for another rough outing here. The home side counters with Matt Moore (2-6, 5.22) who also comes in off an outing to forget, giving up five runs over four innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. Moore though has been one of the league’s biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers in the game this year, posting a 7.94 ERA and 1.91 WHIP on the road, compared to a 2.57 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and 7.7 K/9 at home. I like Moore to continue his consistent play in front of the home town crowd and I look for Santana to continue to slide as the first half ot the season comes to a close. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-17 | Warriors v. Cavs UNDER 228.5 | Top | 116-137 | Loss | -104 | 36 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Cavaliers (9:00 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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06-09-17 | Phillies v. Cardinals -159 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 EST). Neither of these starters instills much confidence, but I think that Michael Wacha and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Jeremey Hellickson (5-3, 4.50 ERA) who allowed five runs over 5.1 innings against San Francisco on Sunday. Over his last seven starts Hellickson has gone 1-3 with 6.75 ERA and a 17:16 K/W ratio spanning 36 frames of work. Note that Hellickson is 2-3 with a ballooned 6.43 ERA in all “night” games thus far. Wacha (2-3, 4.67) gave up six runs off six hits and four walks while striking out five over 4.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Chicago on Sunday. Wacha started the year on point, posting a 2.74 ERA over six quality outings, but has since struggled in three straight trips to the mound by going 0-2 with an 11.91 ERA. Wacha’s earlier numbers were clearly unsustainable. But I think it’s safe to say that he also isn’t as bad as what his recent little slide would suggest either. The moral of the story here is not to overreact. I also point out that Wacha has consistently been at his best in front of the home town crowd this year by going 2-1 with a very respetable 2.94 ERA. I look for Wacha to outduel his volatile counterpart and for the Cardinals to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-09-17 | A's v. Rays -137 | 4-13 | Win | 100 | 26 h 36 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST). I like the Rays to build off yesterday’s 7-5 win over the White Sox, while I expect Oakland to stumble in the opener of this three-game set after getting the day off. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Triggs (5-5, 3.36 ERA), who gave up six runs off nine hits and a walk over 3.2 innings in a 13-3 loss to Washington on Friday. Triggs has now given up at least one home run in each of his last four starts, including two on Friday. The home side counters with Alex Cobb (4-5, 4.52) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up nine earned runs off 14 hits and two walks over five innings in a 9-2 loss to Seattle on Saturday. Cobb is just 1-3 at home, but he does own a very respectable 3.67 ERA in Tampa so far this season. I’ll point out though that Oakland has struggled in this spot all year for bettors, going just 18-25 (-6 units) against right-handed starters, while Tampa has excellled in this position, going 23-18 (+5.1 units) against right-handed pitchers. I think Cobb will outduel his volatile counterpart and get back on track after the disastrous outing last time out. Lay the price, play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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06-08-17 | Predators v. Penguins -140 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 54 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 4, but for Game 5 I think the home side will find a way to get the job done. It was a cake-walk for the Penguins in Game’s 1 and 2, but the Predators turned the table and took advantage of home ice in Game’s 3 and 4. So far home ice advantage has been the difference in this series and I’m expecting this incredibly strong trend to continue. Let’s face it, neither team has looked great so far in the Finals. Pekka Rinne struggled in net in Pittsburgh, while Pens’ goaltender Matt Murray wasn’t his usual self in Nashville. The offenses have looked awesome at times and really average in others. I’ll also point out though that this is a spot in which the Predators have in fact struggled in mightily for bettors all season, going a poor 13-21 (-11.6 units) after scoring four goals or more in their previous contest, while the Penguins have excelled in this position by going 23-11 (+9.4 units) this year after allowing four goals or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on Pittsburgh. Good luck…Larry |
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06-08-17 | Marlins v. Pirates -133 | 7-1 | Loss | -133 | 27 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). Edinson Volquez threw a no-hitter in his last game, but he’s still just 2-7 with a pedestrian 3.79 ERA and 1.58 WHIP. Volquez had been a disasater previous to the historic feat and suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into his one decent outing. In fact, I think there is now only one way Volquez can go (and that’s not up!). Note that he’s been at his worst on the road this season as well by going 0-5 with a 5.12 ERA. The home side counters with ace Gerrit Cole (3-5, 4.27) who will be eager to get back on track after scuffling over his last three starts. He comes in off an outing to forget as well after getting rocked for seven runs over five innings on Friday. Cole has been plagued by the home run, but note that he’s been at this best in front of the home town crowd this year, going 1-1 with a very respectable 2.53 ERA. I’ll also point out that the Marlins are just 2-6 (-2.9 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Pittsburgh is 7-2 (+4.1 units) as a home fav of -125 to -175 this season. I like Cole to get back on track with a focused effort and am expecting a predictable letdown from Volquez after his gem last time out. This line is could/should easily be a lot higher, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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06-08-17 | Angels v. Tigers UNDER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is the under Angels/Tigers (1:10 EST). A couple of competent starters go head-to-head on Thursday afternoon and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to JC Ramirez (5-3, 3.38 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget, giving up seven runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in an eventual 11-5 loss to Minnesota on Friday. After a fantastic start to the 2017 campaign, Ramirez has been much more volatile of late, posting a 4.50 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 17:3 K/W ratio over 32 innings spanning five starts. I’ll point out though that Ramirez has been at his absolute best this season in all “day” games, going 2-0 with a tiny 1.46 ERA thus far. The home side counters with “ace” Michael Fulmer (6-3, 3.00 ERA) who comes in off a victory and who is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA in all “day” games. Fulmer excelled in this spot last season as well, going an amazing 5-0 with a 1.78 ERA in all “day” contests. I think this early afternoon start favors the starters. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-17 | Twins v. Mariners OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 46 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Twins/Mariners (10:10 EST). A couple of confirmed “gas cans” go head to head on Wednesday night and in my opinion, all signs do indeed point to an explosive “slug-fest.” The visitors hand the ball to Adalberto Mejia (1-1, 3.95 ERA) who gave up one run with five hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Angels on Thursday. Mejia owns a 3.00 ERA and 7.0 K/9 in three starts since being re-called from Triple-A, but has been lucky as he’s also given up three home runs in that span. The home side counters with the volatile Yovani Gallardo (2-6, 6.24) who gave up five runs off six hits and three walks over three innings in a loss to the Rockies on Thursday. Note that Gallardo has been particularly horrible at home this year as well, 1-3 with a ballooned 7.80 ERA. I’ll point out that Minnesota has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 18 this year against clubs with losing records, while Seattle has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 15 of 26 in front of the home town crowd thus far. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-17 | Warriors v. Cavs +3 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -105 | 59 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). I took the Cavs in Game 1 and lost badly. I took the Cavs in Game 2 and lost badly. I’m taking the Cavaliers in Game 3 as well and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The addage: “Don’t underestimate the heart of a champion,” is pretty apt in this situation as far as I’m concerned. It’s do-or-die for LeBron James and company, as clearly a 3-0 hole against these 2017 Warriors would simply be too much overcome. And for me, that’s what this pick comes down to, as I’m expecting the defending champs to risk life and limb tonight to secure a victory. The difference in this series so far hasn’t been the superstars on each side. James, Kyrie Irving and Kevin Love have all played well for Cleveland and Golden State has been getting big time production from its three stars as well in Kevin Durant, Stephen Curry and Draymond Green. The difference has been the bench production. Golden State’s role players have to this point absolutely domianted their counterparts. But with the shift in venue, I think that major factor is about to change. And that’s going to be the difference for James, Irving and Love, over their three all star counterparts. I’ll point out as well that the Warriors are just 7-8 ATS this year when playing on two days rest, while Cleveland is 3-1 ATS in its last four in the same position. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-17 | Mets v. Rangers -145 | 4-3 | Loss | -145 | 26 h 41 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). I had a play on the Mets last night and I am not one to usually “flip flop” on a team from game to game, but MLB is the one sport where the focal point is on the starting pitcher and where each contest has to be looked at individually. And in this case, I feel that Yu Darvish is well worth the price of admission. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Wheler (3-3, 3.72 ERA) who despite allowing ten hits and a walk over six innings to go along with two runs and a walk, managed to find a way to victory over the Brewers on Thursday. The home side counters with ace Darvish (5-4, 3.13) who for the most part has been very solid this year, especially at home with a 3-2, 3.25 record/ERA. I’ll point out though that New York is just 10-12 (-2.1 units) on the road this year, while Texas is 17-13 (+2.7 units) at home. I like Darvish to easily outduel his counterpart. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-07-17 | Phillies v. Braves -127 | 1-14 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Jerad Eickhoff (0-6, 5.13 ERA) who was shelled for five runs (four earned) off six hits and five walks over just 2.2 innings in a loss to San Francisco on Friday. Note that Eickhoff has been consistently at his worst on the road this year, 0-4 with a 4.80 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (3-5, 3.90) who went seven scoreless against the Reds on Friday, scattering two hits and striking out ten in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Foltynewicz has gotten better as the season has progressed, posting a 3.21 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 24:6 K/W ratio in 28 innings over his last five starts. And that’s bad news for the Phillies, who rank 24th in the league in wOVA against right-handed pitchers (.305). I’ll also point out that Philadelphia is just 3-8 (-4.9 units) on the road this year when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while ATL is 3-1 (+1.7 units) this season as a home fav in the -127 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-17 | Mets -130 v. Rangers | 8-10 | Loss | -130 | 29 h 37 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the New York Mets (8:05 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom (4-2, 3.97 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against Milwaukee on Wednesday, giving up seven runs off eight hits over four innings, also going on to strike out six and walk five. DeGrom’s peripherals suggest he’s been the victim of some bad luck of late, as he holds career highs in BABIP (.338) and HR/FB (18.2 percent). Note that DeGrom is 3-0 with a respectable 3.89 ERA on the road this year as well. The home side counters with the volatile Dillon Gee (0-0, 0.00) who will make his first start ever for the Rangers. Gee has been used out of the Bullpen for Texas, most recently going four innings on Friday. I’ll point out that New York is already 4-2 (+1.6 units) this year after allowing ten runs or more, while Texas is just 18-25 (-8 units) in all “night” games. I think DeGrom gets back on track and continues his success on the road. Play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-17 | Angels v. Tigers -136 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -136 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). I think this is a matchup which favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jesse Chavez (4-6, 4.68 ERA) who comes in off a good start against the anemic Braves on Wednesday, holding them to one run over seven innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Chavez has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned and note that he’s consistently been at his most inconsistent on the road, just 1-4 with a poor 5.46 ERA to this point. The home side counters with Daniel Norris (2-3, 4.47) who earned a no-decision agains the Royals on Monday after going five innings and givein up three earned runs off six hits while also striking out four. Norris has been getting incrementally better with each start this season as he’s now gone at least five innings in four straight outings. He’s also given up three earned runs or less in three of his last four trips to the hill. I’ll point out as well that LA is just 1-8 (-7.8 units) already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Detroit is 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-06-17 | Pirates v. Orioles -139 | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 28 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:05 EST). Ivan Nova has looked better than Kevin Gausman this season, but the Pirates have given their “ace” little support this year. Gausman has also looked a lot better of late though. Nova (5-4, 2.92 ERA) most recently gave up three runs off six hits and one walk while striking out three in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Tuesday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Nova really, as for the most part he’s been one of the best in the league to this point. Gausman (3-4, 5.92) gave up three runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings while striking out four in a win over the Yankees on Wednesday. Gausman is now 2-1 with a 4.54 ERA at home this year. I’ll point out though that the Pirates are just 2-4 (-2 units) in all interleague games this season, while the Orioles are 4-2 (+1.8 units) in the same position. I think Gausman can match Nova and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-17 | Blue Jays +105 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 32 h 25 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (10:05 EST). Toronto heads out West after beating the Yanks 3-2 at home early yesterday afternoon, while the A’s looked primed for a letdown here in my opinion after last night’s deflating 11-10 loss at home to the Nationals. The visitors hand the ball to JA Happ (0-3, 4.50 ERA) who went four innings and gave up two runs off three hits and three walks with three K’s in a 6-4 win over the Reds on Tuesday. It was Happs first start since April 16th and after allowing two early solo home runs, he’d settle down and allow just a single hit over his final four innings of work. He was 20-4 last season and is expected to be given a longer leash this evening after a pitch count in his first start. The home side counters with Sean Manaea (4-3, 3.91) who gave up one run off three hits and a walk over seven innings in a victory over the Tribe on Wednesday. Manaea struggled to open the year, but enters this game on an extended stretch of excellence. However I’ll point out that the A’s are just 1-4 (-3 units) in their last five after scoring ten or more runs in their previous game. Also note that Toronto is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three after holding its opponent to two runs or less in its previous outing. I think Happ can match his counterpart inning for inning and in a scenario like that, the value swings to the dog. Play on the Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-17 | Penguins v. Predators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 32 h 10 m | Show |
This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the under Pens/Predators (8:00 EST). So far two of three in this series have flown above the posted number, but I think Game 4 sets up as more of a defensive affair. It was 1-0 for Pittsburgh after the first period in Game 3 and famous Canadian broadcaster Don Cherry would go on to claim that the Predators might not ever score another goal on Pens’ netminder Matt Murray in this series. Nashville would then go on to score three goals in the second period, en route to the 5-1 blowout. Predators’ netminder Pekka Rinne returned to form and the league’s No. 1 defense in the postseason looked fantastic after a shaky couple of games in Pittsburgh. Murray has all the tools and experience to bounce back himself though, so I’m not reading too much into one sub-par effort. The trends/numbers also support our play on the “under,” as note that Pittsburgh has seen the total go under the number in six of its last nine in the Stanley Cup Finals, while Nashville has seen the total go under in three of its last four after holding an opponent to one goal or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-17 | Astros v. Royals +105 | 7-3 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 35 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Kansas City Royals (8:15 EST). I think Ian Kennedy and the Kansas City Royals can finally cool off the red hot Astros in what I believe is a bigger mismatch on the mound that what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (2-2, 4.96 ERA), who gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a 7-2 win over the Twins on Tuesday. Fiers returned to the rotation to throw a gem, but previous to that he’d pretty much been a disaster this season. The moral of the story is, let’s not overreact to one decent outing (and note that Fiers owns a poor 5.70 ERA on the road this year as well). Kennedy (0-5, 5.12) is clearly eager to get off the schneid and notch his first victory of the year, most recently giving up five runs off four hits while striking out four over just three innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Kennedy posted a 2.30 ERA in April and an 11.30 ERA in May. His home ERA is a pedestrian 4.39. Neither starter instills too much confidence, but I believe Kennedy has the advantage at home today. The value is simply too good to turn down, play on the Royals. Good luck…Larry |
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06-05-17 | Marlins v. Cubs -140 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (8:05 EST). Miami comes in off a 6-5 win over the Diamondbacks, while Chicago held on for a 7-6 win over the Cardinals last night. Now the Fish have to travel to the Windy City and suffice it to say, I think this sets up as a letdown spot. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (4-3, 3.56 ERA) who gave up two runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out ten over 6.2 innings in a 10-2 victory over Philadelphia on Wednesday. Straily has been on a tear, but he’s been one of the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers in the game this season, going 3-1 with a 2.27 ERA in frot of the home town crowd, compared to just 1-2 with a ballooned 6.00 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Eddie Butler (2-1, 4.42) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up six runs off seven hits while striking out five over 4.1 innings in an eventual 6-2 loss to the Padres on Tuesday. Butler has admittedly been “hit or miss” this season, but he’s consistently been at his best at home with a respectable 3.38 ERA. I find it interesting to note that Miami is just 15-28 (-14.7 units) in its last 43 games that fall on a “Monday,” while Chicago is 30-14 (+10.4 units) in its last 44 in the same position. Butler is playing for his spot in the rotation and I think he can match his volatile counterpart inning for inning. Chicago will look to take advantage of Straily’s road struggles and I look for it to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price, play on Chicago. Good luck…Larry |
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06-04-17 | Cavs +9 v. Warriors | Top | 113-132 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
This is a 10* SIDE OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:00 EST). I played Cleveland in Game 1 and felt pretty good about the pick heading into half. LeBron James looked strong and the Cavaliers were only down by five. But Golden State was able to slow down James in the second half and unfortunately, no one else was really able to step up. Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving both had decent outings, but not spectacular. For Cleveland to beat Golden State, James needs both Love and Irving to play spectacular every night. He also needs his bench to give him some support, as the Warriors’ reserves drastically outplayed their counterparts. Am I suggesting to you to “sprinkle a little on the money line” as well? Of course not. I simply feel this is too many points to be giving up to the defending champs, as I expect coach Tyrone Lou to make adjustments. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has performed well for bettors in this spot over the last couple of years, going 6-4 ATS in its last ten when trailing in a playoff series, while Golden State has struggled in this position by going just 6-8 ATS this season when playing with two days rest. Grab as many points as you can, play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-04-17 | Nationals v. A's UNDER 8.5 | 11-10 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 56 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the under Nats/A’s (4:05 EST). After yesterday’s 10-4 victory for the A’s, I’m expecting the finale of this series to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to Tanner Roark (5-2, 3.86 ERA) who allowed six hits while walking one and striking out six over seven shutout innings in a 3-0 win over San Francisco on Monday. Roark is starting to hit his stride as he’d give up just one run while striking out a season-high eight over seven innings in a win over the Mariners in his previous outing. Note that Roark has been particularly effective on the road as well to this point by going 2-1 with a 3.64 ERA. The home side counters with Sonny Gray (2-2, 4.72) who comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Indians on Tuesday, allowing seven runs off nine hits and two walks over 4.2 innings. I’m not going to read too much into one crummy outing though as Gray had previously strung together three consecutive quality starts while posting a 22:5 K/W ratio in that span. Gray has also been one of the biggest “Jekyll and Hyde” hurlers to open the 2017 campaign, going 0-2 with a ballooned 7.02 ERA on the road, while going 2-0 with a very respectable 2.55 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that Washington has seen the total go under the number in 14 of 20 “day” games this year, while Oakland has seen the total dip below the posted number in two of its last three against right-handed starters. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-04-17 | Indians -121 v. Royals | Top | 8-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Cleveland Indians (2:15 EST). The Royals pounded the Tribe 12-5 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time on Sunday afternoon for Cleveland. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Bauer (5-4, 6.00 ERA) who gave up three runs off seven hits and one walk while also striking out 14 in a win over Oakland on Tuesday. After a horrible start to the 2017 campaign, Bauer has looked a lot better of late, not allowing more than three runs in any of his last four outings while also posting a 36:4 K/W ratio. The home side counters with Eric Skoglund (1-0, 0.00) who looked great in his debut against Detroit on Tuesday, scattering just two hits and a walk while striknig out five over 6.1 innings. So is Skoglund going to be the next Clayton Kershaw? Maybe. But note that he’d posted a poor 4.53 ERA over eight starts for Triple-A Omaha before Tuesday’s call-up. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is 13-6 (+2.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while KC is just 5-12 (-7.1 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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06-04-17 | Red Sox -158 v. Orioles | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Boston Red Sox (1:35 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe as I look for Boston to build off its 5-2 win yesterday with its ace on the mound. The visitors turn to Chris Sale (6-2, 2.77 ERA) who comes in off his worst start of the year, giving up six runs off ten hits and two walks while striking out nine in what turned out to be a 13-7 win over the White Sox. Sale struggled against his former team, but his offense was on fire, smoking six dingres for the night. Note that Sale is 2-1 with a 3.48 ERA on the road thus far this season. The home side counters with Chris Tillman (1-2, 5.87) who has been a disaster of late, posting a ballooned 7.50 ERA, 2.06 WHIP and .358 BAA over his last four trips to the mound. Note that Tillman has looked terrible in front of the home town crowd this year, just 1-2 with a 5.79 ERA to this point. I’ll point out that Boston is 13-8 (+2.6 units) in all “day” games this year, while Baltimore is just 6-9 (-4 units) in the same position. I don’t usually play favorites of this size, but all signs point to a relatively easy blowout. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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06-03-17 | Rays -110 v. Mariners | Top | 2-9 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 16 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (10:10 EST). I had a play on the Rays last night and they’d unfortunately fall 12-4 in Seattle. I think the visitors bounce back in Game 2 in what sets up to be a very favorable pitching matchup for them. Tampa Bay hands the ball to Alex Cobb (4-4, 3.67 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits while walking three and striking out six over five innings in a no-decision against the Twins Sunday. Cobb has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s consistently been at his best on the road, going 3-1 with a 3.67 ERA. The home side counters with Sam Gaviglio (1-1, 3.50) who gave up five earned runs off six hits and two walks over five innings in what would turn out to be a 6-5 win over the Rockies on Monday. This could be Gaviglio’s last time in the rotation, with several key members set to return. I’ll point out that the Rays are 22-16 (+6.4 units) against right-handed starters this season, while the Mariners are just 18-22 (-3.1 units) in the same position. I think Cobb is the correct call here, play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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06-03-17 | Twins v. Angels UNDER 7.5 | 2-7 | Loss | -120 | 30 h 11 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Twins/Angels (10:05 EST). A couple of competent starters go head-to-head on Saturday night and I think all signs point to a classic “duel.” The visitors hand the ball to ace Ervin Santana (7-2, 1.75 ERA) who gave up two runs (one earned) off five hits and two walks while striking out six over seven innings in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision against the Astros on Monday. Santana has now allowed one earned run or fewer in ten of his 12 starts and to go along with his tiny 1.75 ERA, he also owns a minuscule 0.84 WHIP. Note that Santana has been particularly effective on the road this year, going 4-0 with a 0.31 ERA. The home side counters with Matt Shoemaker (4-3, 4.26) who comes in off an interleague outing to forget against Miami, allowing four runs off seven hits over just 4.2 innings on Sunday. Previous to this “dud,” Shoemaker had won three consecutive outings while allowing only three earned runs and striking out 21 batters over 18.2 innings of work. I’m not reading too much into one sub-par effort. I’ll point out as well that Minnesota has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of 19 on the road already this year, while LA has seen the total dip below the posted number in nine of ten this season against clubs with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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06-03-17 | Penguins +119 v. Predators | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 57 h 40 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST). I took Nashville in Game 1 and lost. I took the UNDER in Game 2 and won. I think that Pittsburgh offers fantastic value in this spot though as it will look to take a virtual strangle-hold on this series. Pittsburgh is “inside” Predators’ goaltender Pekka Rinne’s head. The Penguins only managed 15 shots in Game 1, but still won 5-3. Rinne had been the best goaltender in the playoffs and the Predators owned the stoutest overall defense, but the Pens have rattled the All-star netminder. And simply put, I don’t expecting anything to change tonight either. I’ll point out as well that Pittsburgh is 29-17 (+5.5 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous game, while Nashville has struggled against teams from the Eastern Conference all year, going just 14-20 (-11.6 units) in all non-conference games. For all the reasons listed above, play on the the Penguins in Game 3. Godo luck…Larry |
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06-03-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles +109 | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 21 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:15 EST). I like Baltimore to build off yesterday’s 3-2 victory and take advantage of Boston starter David Price, who is making just his second start of the season. Price (0-0, 5.40 ERA) is expected to be on a pitch count again today. In his first start against the White Sox he threw 88 pitches. Price should be rolling before too long, but clearly this is a tough second opponent. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (6-3, 2.89 ERA) who opened the year on fire in April, but who took a small step back in May, going 3-2 with a 3.92 ERA and 26:14 K/W ratio spanning six starts. Despite that, Bundy’s 1.14 WHIP through 11 games is more than what the Orioles would have hoped for and note that he’s been particularly effective at home, going 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA. I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 5-11 (-7 units) this year when on the road when the money line is between +125 to -125, while Baltimore is 12-4 (+7.7 units) this season at home when the money line is set between the same range. I like Bundy to outduel his counterpart, who I expect will need a few more games under his belt before he returns to top form. Play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-17 | Astros v. Rangers +117 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -100 | 31 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Texas Rangers (8:05 EST). The Astros are on an impressive run right now, but I think that Houston finally has a letdown here. The visitors hand the ball to ace Dallas Keuchel (8-0, 1.81 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings in a 5-2 win over the Orioles on Saturday. It’s impossible to say anything negative about Keuchel, so I won’t bother. As I stated off the top, I simply feel this is a bad spot for Houston. The home side counters with ace Yu Darvish (5-3, 2.97) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out four over six innings in a setback to the Blue Jays on Saturday. Darvish made one mistake and Toronto slugger Jose Bautista made him pay with a three-run shot. Note that Darvish has been particularly effective at home this year by going 3-1 with a 2.97 ERA. Houston is hot, but Texas is 17-10 (+5.7 units) at home. I like Darvish to match Keuchel inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I feel that the value swings to the underdog. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-17 | Dodgers v. Brewers +205 | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Milwaukee Brewers (8:10 EST). Clayton Kershaw is arguably the best pitcher on the planet right now, but Jimmy Nelson comes in on top form as well. I think Nelson can match Kershaw inning for inning and in a scenario like that, I think the value swings to hard-hitting home side. Kershaw (7-2, 2.37 ERA) was rocked for four runs off 11 hits (including three dingers) over just 4.1 innings of work, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort most recently. Kershaw was also shelled for three dingers in a single game earlier in the season as well. Nelson (3-3, 3.83) gave up one run off seven hits to go along with a season-high 10 K’s over seven innings in a 9-5 win over Arizona on Sunday. He would not walk a single batter in the dominant effort. Note that LA is just 12-13 (-4.8 units) on the road this year, while Milwaukee is 10-7 (+4.4 units) against teams with winning records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-17 | Pirates v. Mets -110 | Top | 12-7 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 30 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the New York Mets (7:10 EST). I think the home side offers fantastic value in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (2-5, 3.65 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off ten hits and a walk while striking out three over five innings in a win over these very Mets on Saturday, fortunate to receive a no-decision for his sub-par effort. Note that Cole is just 1-4 with a pedestrian 4.67 ERA on the road and has now given up nine runs over his last 9.2 innings while striking out just five batters. The home side counters with Matt Harvey (4-3, 4.95) who gave up one run off six hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a win over Pittsburgh on Sunday. Harvey would go on to throw 67 of his 102 pitches for strikes. It was easily his best outing of the year and I think he can build off it again in this favorable matchup against the soft-hitting Pirates. I’ll also point out that PIttsburgh is just 13-16 (-2.9 units) this season after a loss, while New York is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three following a victory. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-17 | Cavs +7 v. Warriors | Top | 91-113 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (9:00 EST). I’m with Golden State head coach Steve Kerr on this series. How come the Warriors are such massive favs to win it all? Cleveland is the defending champ and it’s stacked top to bottom with talent. It’s also led by the single best player on the planet in LeBron James. Am I saying the Cavs are going to win this series? I am not. Am I saying that Cleveland is going to win Game 1 outright? Also, I am not. But I do think that this veteran laden Cavaliers team can at the very least, take this one down to the wire and cover with what I feel to be a very ample spread. From a situational stand point, this one also sets up extremely well for the Cavaliers, as this is in fact a spot in which Cleveland has performed extremely well in for bettors all season, while this is a position in which the Warriors have struggled in mightily. As note, the Cavs are a perfect 4-0 ATS this year when playing with three or more days rest, while the Warriors are just 3-4 ATS in the same position. Both teams have great offenses, but the Warriors are better on that end of the floor. Both teams have adequate defenses, but the Cavaliers are slightly better on that end of the floor. I think Cleveland comes to play in Game 1 as it looks to at the very least, get a split in Golden State before heading back to Defend The Land! Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-17 | Diamondbacks -129 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 42 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST). I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-3, 3.24 ERA), who comes in off an outing to forget in which he allowed five runs off five hits and two walks with six K’s in a 6-1 loss in Milwaukee on Saturday. Greinke though had been red hot previous to that, winning four in a row and five of his last six. Greinke has struggled a bit on the road this year, but note that he’s 6-2 with a 2.76 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Jeff Locke (0-0, 0.00) who will make his season debut tonight. He was injured in the spring and has worked himself through his re-hab session admirably, posting a 1.77 ERA and 22:2 K/W ratio over seven starts between High-A Jupiter and Double-A Jacksonville. I’ll point out though that Arizona is 20-12 (+7.7 units) this season following a victory, while Miami is just 8-12 (-4.4 units) in the same position. As good as Locke looked in Double A, I still think that Greinke is being severely undervalued in this matchup. Play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-17 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Red Sox/Orioles (7:05 EST). Boston is coming off a 4-1 win over the White Sox yesterday, while Baltimore would go on to smash New York by a score of 10-4. For a couple of different reasons, I think this number is a little low tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (4-1, 2.77 ERA) who went six scoreless against the Mariners on Friday, allowing five hits and striking out four. Over his last 44 innings of work he’s given up only 11 earned runs. I’ll point out though that Boston has seen the total go over the number in nine of 14 on the road with a money line between +125 to -125 this season. The home side counters with Wade Miley (1-3, 3.02), who struggled in May, unable to win any of his five starts in the month, posting a pedestrian 3.97 ERA and a poor 13:12 K/W ratio over just 22.2 innings of work. Miley’s strikeout rate dropped from 29.7 to 12.0 percent from April to May. Miley’s peripherals also suggest immediate regression with a career-high 85.1 percent strand rate to go along with a 4.78 FIP. I’ll also point out that the Orioles have interestingly seen the total go over the number in two of their last three after scoring ten or more runs. Both of these division rivals come off victories and each looks primed for a big day at the plate. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-17 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -134 | 12-2 | Loss | -134 | 25 h 38 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). The Yankees head North of the border on Thurdsay night after falling 10-4 in Baltimore on Wednesday, while Toronto beat Cincinnati 5-4 at home last night. The visitors hand the ball to CC Sabathia (5-2, 4.42 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits and three walks while striking out nine over 6.1 innings in a win over the A’s on Saturday. Sabathia has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Note that he’s 2-2 with a ballooned 6.12 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side counters with Marco Estrada (4-2, 3.15) who enters June off a fantastic May, finishing 4-1 with a 3.82 ERA and massive 42:8 K/W ratio over six starts. Estrada comes into the new month sporting a career-best 3.42 FIP through his first 11 games. Note that Estrada has been especially sharp at home this year by going 2-1 with a 2.32 ERA. I’ll also point out that New York is just 9-11 (-2.1 units) this season on the road when the money line is set between +150 and -150, while Toronto is now 4-3 (+1 units) after three or more consecutive victories. The Jays are now one of the hottest teams in the league after a dismal start because they’re getting healthier, with sluggers Troy Tulowitzki and Josh Donaldson both returning to the line-up recently. Sabahthia has been pretty good this year, but Estrada comes in on top form. As does Toronto. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-17 | Rockies v. Mariners -153 | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 30 h 21 m | Show | |
My 8* Las Vegas Insider is on the Seattle Mariners (10:10 EST). This series shifts from Colorado to Seattle and suffice it say, I think the Mariners will capatalize and build off yesterday’s 10-4 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (7-1, 3.19 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the Cards on Friday, going eight scoreless and striking out three in the 10-0 victory. Colorado would go on to turn four double plays behind Senzatela. A closer look at his peripherals though (4.54 FIP and 4.55 xFIP) suggest rockier times are ahead. The home side countes with flame-thrower James Paxton (3-0, 1.43) who prior to landing on the DL had posted a 1.43 ERA, 0.98 WHIP to go along with 45 K’s over 37.2 innings of work (that includes going 2-0 with a 0.44 ERA at home). I’ll point out that Colorado is just 2-3 (-1.5 units) in all interleague contests this year, while Seattle is 7-3 (+4.8 units) in the same position. I think Senzatela’s poor peripherals finally catch up to him here and I look look for Paxton to dominate in his first start back from re-hab. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-17 | Predators v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the under Predators/Penguins (8:00 EST). I had a play on the Predators in Game 1 and obviously came up short. I’m going to steer clear of the side in this one and instead focus on the total. After the high-scoring 5-3 victory for the Penguins, I’m expecting a much more tightly checked/contested affair in Game 2 and I look for these all star goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow’s summaries. Pittsburgh scored three goals in the first period and then tallied zero shots in the second period. Nashville scored once in the second period and then two more in the third to tie it 3-3, but then the champs bounced back and managed to pull away. What was up with Predators goaltender Pekka Rinne? He came into the Stanley Cup Final as the No. 1 goaltender, but he looked horrible, allowing the five goals on just 12 total shots. It was an unbelievably horrible night-mare outing for Rinne, but I am absolutely not reading too much into it. Despite the atrocious performance, he’s still 12-5 with a 1.83 GAA in the postseason. Pittsburgh was clearly “lucky” to win that game, considering it only had 12 shots on net. If the Pens only manage 12 shots tonight, I’d be surprised if they manage a single goal. Goaltender Matt Murray is 4-1 with a 1.62 GAA in the playoffs for the Penguins. I’ll point out as well that Nashville has seen the total go under the number in 12 of 21 following a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest, while Pittsburgh has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven in the Stanley Cup Final. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-17 | Yankees -110 v. Orioles | Top | 4-10 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). Neither of these pitchers has gotten out to the start to the 2017 campaign that they’d hoped for, but I think that New York and Mashario Tanaka will build off yesterday’s 8-3 victory. Tanaka (5-4, 5.86) gave up one run off five hits while stirking out 13 over 7.1 innings in an unfortunate loss to the A’s on Friday. As mentioned, Tanaka has struggled this year, but there’s no question that he looked a lot better against Oakland and note that he’s still 5-1 with a 2.51 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side counters with the volatile Kevin Gausman (2-4, 6.17), who also comes in off a decent outing, giving up two runs off eight hits while striking out two over 6.2 innings in a 2-0 loss to Houston on Friday. It could have been a lot worse for Gausman, as both runs came off solo dingers. Gausman struggled in April and has looked much better of late, but I’ll point out that unlike his counterpart, Gausman continues to struggle in all “night” games this year, just 2-3 with a 5.35 ERA. I’ll point out as well that New York is 18-10 (+6.6 units) this season following a victory, while Baltimore is 10-13 (-4 units) following a loss. All things considerd, I do indeed feel this is a very fair price, play on the Yankees. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-17 | A's v. Indians -147 | 3-1 | Loss | -147 | 26 h 23 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (6:10 EST). I like Cleveland to build off yesterday’s 9-4 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Sean Manaea (3-3, 4.35 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the year, giving up no runs off four hits and one walk while striking out eight over seven innings to earn the victory over the Yanks on Friday. I’m not going to read too much into this one start though as this was just Manaea’s second quality start over his last seven outings. And note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this year by going just 1-3 with a 5.59 ERA. The home side counters with Mike Clevinger (2-1, 2.82), who after holding the hot-hitting Astros scoreless over seven innings, was unable to keep the momentum rolling in a 6-4 loss to KC on Friday, allowing four runs while striking out six over six innings of work. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is now 3-1 (+2 units) in its last four following a victory, while Oakland is only 1-4 (-3 units) in its last five following a loss. I like Clevinger to get back on track here and look for him to easily outduel his volatile counterpart. Play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-17 | Phillies v. Marlins -127 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Miami Marlins (1:10 EST). The bottom line is I think this is a much bigger mismatch than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to confirmed “gas can” Aaron Nola (2-2, 4.34 ERA) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and two walks while striking out five over six innings in a loss against the Reds on Friday. Nola has now failed to post a quality start in two of his last three outings. The home side counters with Dan Straily (3-3, 3.83 ERA) who gave up three earned runs off six hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a victory over the Angels on Friday, also going on to strike out six. Straily has been hitting his stride of late, posting a very respectable 2.74 ERA and a tiny 0.91 WHIP. Note that Straily has been particularly sharp at home this season as well, going 2-1 with a 2.45 ERA. I feel Straily isn’t getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers in this matchup. Lay the very reasonable price, play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-17 | Cubs -135 v. Padres | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -135 | 24 h 21 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (10:10 EST). I think the defending champs will bounce back here after falling 5-2 yesterday. The Cubs hand the ball to Eddie Butler (2-0, 1.93 ERA) who gave up a single run off four hits and two walks while striking out one over five innings in a victory over the Giants on Thursday. Butler has now won two of his three starts and owns a 1.93 ERA and 1.36 WHIP. The home side counters with Dinelson Lamet (1-0, 1.80) who held the Mets to one run off three hits over five innings on Thursday. Prior to that call-up start, Lamet looked pretty good in the minors with a 3.23 ERA and 11.45 K/9 ratio. I’ll point out though that San Diego has struggled mightily in this spot for bettors already this year going just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four following a victory, while Chicago is 2-1 (+1 unit) in its last three following a loss. Play the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-17 | Red Sox v. White Sox OVER 7.5 | 13-7 | Win | 100 | 22 h 21 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Red Sox/White Sox (8:10 EST). I think this number is just a little low. The hard-hitting Red Sox hand the ball to Chris Sale (5-2, 2.34 ERA) who gave up four runs over 7.1 innings in a victory over Texas on Wednesday, giving up six hits, a walk and striking out six. The performance would break a string of eight consecutive double-digit strikeout efforts. The home side turns to Jose Quintana (2-6, 4.82) who gave up eight runs off eight hits and struck out seven over 4.1 innings in an 8-6 loss to Arizona on Wednesday. Note that Quintana has been especially pedestrian at home this year, going 1-3 with a 4.40 ERA. I’ll also point out that Boston has seen the total go over the number in 12 of 22 on the road already this season, while Chicago has seen the total go over in three of its last four following a victory. Sale has been awesome, but Quintana continues to slide. Chicago looks to build off yesterday’s 4-3 win though and in my opinion, all signs do indeed point to the “over” as the correct move in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-17 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +104 | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). Robbie Ray has been pretty good this year, but I think Ivan Nova isn’t getting nearly enough respect from the oddsmakers considering how well he’s done this season. I look for Pittsburgh to build off yesterday’s 4-3 victory. Ray (4-3, 3.45 ERA) went seven shutout innings with nine K’s in a 4-0 win over the Brewers on Thursday. Ray has turned in back-to-back gems, but previous to that had posted a 6.33 ERA and 1.59 WHIP over a five-start stretch. Nova (5-3, 2.83) gave up four runs off ten hits and a walk while striking out one over nine innings in a win over the Braves on Thursday. These are two hurlers coming in on top form, but note that Arizona is just 6-10 (-4.6 units) this year on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Pittsburgh is 3-1 (+2.1 units) at home when the money line is in the same range. I like Nova to outduel Ray and in my opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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05-29-17 | Braves v. Angels OVER 8 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 27 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the over Braves/Angels (9:05 EST). A couple of confirmed “gas cans” go head-to-head on Monday night and all signs point to a high-scoring slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to “ace” Julio Teheran (3-4, 4.88 ERA) who gave up three runs off four hits and two walks with six K’s in a no-decision against Pittsburgh on Wednesday. Previous to that he’d been shelled for nine runs against the Blue Jays last week. The home side counters with Ricky Nolasco (2-4, 4.37) who gave up five runs off seven hits (including three dingers) and two walks while striking out six over six innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. Nolasco has already served up 16 home runs in just 57.2 innings of work this year. Note as well that he’s just 1-1 with a pedestrian 4.37 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. I’ll point out as well that ATL has seen the total go over the number in five of six interleague games already this year, while LA has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of five interleague contests. Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when properly assessing starting pitching and in this case, all signs do indeed point to these volatile starters getting chased early. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-29-17 | Predators +155 v. Penguins | 3-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Nashville Predators (8:00 EST). I think a lot of sharps will be backing the defending champs today, but I think the value is on the upstart underdog Predators, who will look to steal one in Pittsburgh, just like the Senators did in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Final. I had a play on Ottawa in that contest and I believe the Predators can duplicate that feat in Game 1 of the Stanley Cup Final. If the Penguins thought Craig Anderson was a good goaltender, then they haven’t seen anything yet. Nashville’s Pekka Rinne is 12-4 with a 1.70 GAA and .941 save percentage in the playoffs this year. The Predators are ranked third in the playoffs in scoring with 2.94 GPG, while ranked No. 1 on the defensive end in conceding just 1.81 per contest. Pittsburgh’s Matt Murray is 3-1 with a 1.35 GAA in the playoffs this year. The Penguins are ranked first in scoring in the postseason with an average of 3.05 GPG, while ranked fifth in goals allowed with 2.32 GPG. I think Nashville’s No. 1 ranked defense and red hot goaltender turn out to be the difference tonight though. Play on the Predators. Good luck…Larry |
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05-29-17 | Nationals -113 v. Giants | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:05 EST). Washington fell at home to the Padres yesterday afternoon, while the Giants smashed the Braves 7-1. I think the Nationals get back on track this evening though as I look for Tanner Roark to get the better of his volatile counterpart. Roark (4-2, 4.32 ERA) comes in off a gem against the Mariners on Wednesday, allowing one run off eight hits while striking out eight over seven innings in the eventual 5-1 victory. The home side counters with Matt Moore (2-5, 5.28) who gave up four runs off seven hits over six innings while walking three in an eventual 5-4 loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. I’ll point out that Washington is already 4-2 (+1.6 units) this year against left-handed starters, while San Francisco is 12-18 (-7.4 units) against right-handed starters. This matchup favors Roark and the hard-hitting Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-17 | Mets v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 7-2 | Push | 0 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Mets/Pirates (8:00 EST). Yesterday’s game snuck over the number by a single run as the Pirates tied it up in the bottom of the ninth, eventually going on to win 5-4 in extra innings. I’m expecting a much lower-scoring game in the finale of this series though. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Harvey (3-3, 5.36 ERA) who comes in off a win over the Padres on Tuesday, allowing two runs off three hits over five innings while also striking out six. Harvey is struggling/battling in many different areas right now, but he’s looked better of late. The home side counters with Tyler Glasnow (2-3, 6.69) who gave up two runs off nine hits over six innings in a victory over ATL on Tuesday. Glasnow has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others, but like Harvey, he’s also coming off one of his better efforts of the year and he’ll now look to keep the momentum rolling. Both teams have been playing to some higher-scoring affairs of late, but with these two determined starters going head-to-head on Sunday night, all signs finally point to a lower-scoring “pitchers duel.” Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-17 | Tigers v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the over Tigers/White Sox (2:10 EST). Game 1 of this four-game series flew above the posted number, but the last two have fallen well below, including in both games of yesterday’s double-header. WIth these two volatile starters going head-to-head in the finale though, I think that all signs point to a higher-scoring affair in the finale. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann (4-3, 5.86 ERA) who gave up four runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over six innings in an eventual 6-2 loss to Houston on Tuesday. To go along with his awful 5.86 ERA, Zimmermann also owns a poor 2.3 HR/9 ratio, which is supported by a career-high 47.1 percent flyball rate and career-worst 39.8 percent hard-hit ball rate. Note that Zimmermann has been particularly horrible on the road this year as well, 0-2 with a 5.87 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Miguel Gonzalez (3-5, 4.55) who most recently was rocked for five runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Monday. Over his past five outings Gonzalez has allowed six home runs to push his ratio to a poor 1.3 HR/9. I’ll point out that Detroit has already seen the total go over the number in 12 of 19 day games this year, while Chicago has seen the total eclipse the posted number in three of its last four day games. All signs point to these offenses taking center stage on Sunday afternoon, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-17 | Royals v. Indians -125 | 1-10 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Wipeout Winner on the Cleveland Indians (1:10 EST). Although Josh Tomlin has seen better days, I like the Tribe to bounce back here after yestreday’s 5-2 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Danny Duffy (4-2, 2.92 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits over seven innings in a 6-2 win over the Yanks on Tuesday. Duffy has looked better of late, but note that this is a spot in which the Royals have really struggled in this year, going just 4-11 (-7.6 units) in all “day” games. Tomlin (2-6, 6.70) gave up five runs off nine htis while striking out four over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Monday. Tomlin has been “hit-or-miss” this season (mostly “miss”), but note that if the Indians have done well in one area so far in 2017, it’s been in all “day” games where they’re 10-5 (+1.1 units) thus far. I like Tomlin to fight and match his hot counterpart and for the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-17 | Rangers +143 v. Blue Jays | 3-1 | Win | 143 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Texas Rangers (1:05 EST). I think the Rangers offer pretty good value here to bounce back after yesterday’s 3-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Cashner (1-4, 3.18 ERA) who gave up five runs off six hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to Boston on Tuesday. I don’t think it’s time to hit the panic button yet though if your a Cashner fan, as it was the first time he’s allowed more than two earned runs since his first start of the year. Prior to this rough outing Cashner had put together four consecutive quality starts. The home side counters with Joe Biagini (1-2, 3.75) who gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out three over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Brewers on Tuesday. Biagini has struggled of late, allowing nine runs over his last 8.1 innings spanning two starts. I’ll point out that Texas is 7-4 (+3.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while Toronto is just 1-3 (-2 units) in its last four in the same position. After losing three straight in Boston and the first two games of this series, enough is enough as far as the Rangers are concerned this afternoon. Play on Texas. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-17 | Cardinals v. Rockies -108 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (9:10 EST). I think the Rockies will build off yesterday’s 10-0 beatdown of the Cards yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Adam Wainwright (4-3, 4.81 ERA) who comes in off a decent outing against the Giants on Sunday, allowing one earned run off five hits and three walks over 6.1 innings. Wainwright has looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s now given up at least three walks in all four of his May starts to this point. And if Wainwright has had one glaring weakness this season, it’s clearly been his play on the road where he’s an atrocious 1-2 with a 7.11 ERA. The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (5-2, 3.31) who gave up four runs off five hits and two walks while striking out three over six innings in a win over the Reds on Sunday. Freeland has now given up three earned runs or fewer in eight of his nine starts this year. Freeland’s periperhals suggest that rockier times could be ahead, but regardless the rookie has looked sharp to this point, especially at home where he’s 2-2 with a 3.80 ERA (and that’s saying something when Coors Field is involved). I’ll also point out that St. Louis is just 4-6 (-2.8 units) against southpaw’s this year, while the Rockies are 22-13 (+8.8 units) against right-handed starters. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price here, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmakers Error is on the LA Dodgers (7:15 EST). I had a play on LA last night and it would go on to beat the Cubs 4-0. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a repeat performance on Saturday night as well. The visitors hand the ball to John Lackey (4-4, 4.82) who was shelled for five runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to San Francisco on Monday. It was the second straight start that the veteran has failed to get into the sixth frame (note the he’d also go on to give up two home runs for the second game in a row as well, while he’d also hit two batters). The home side counters with Brandon McCarthy (4-1, 3.76) who gave up one run off three hits while walking one and striking out five over six innings ina 6-3 victory over Miami on Sunday. McCarthy has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned of late, but note that he’s been strong in front of the home town crowd to this point, going 2-0 with a highly respectable 3.68 ERA at Chavez Ravine. I’ll point out that Chicago is just 2-6 (-4.3 units) on the road this year when the money line is between +125 to -125, while LA is 19-8 (+4.8 units) at home this season. All things considered, I think we’re getting a great price in this matchup. Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-17 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Brewers | 1-6 | Loss | -138 | 22 h 52 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). I like Arizona to build off its 4-2 victory last night. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Greinke (6-2, 2.82 ERA) who went 8.2 innings in a win over the White Sox on Monday, allowing one run off four hits and one walk while striking out a season-high 12. So far through ten starts Greinke is on pace for one of his best campaigns of his career. To go along with his sparkling 2.82 ERA, Greinke also sports a tiny 0.97 WHIP. The home side counters with Chase Anderson (2-1, 4.25) who gave up six runs off seven hits (including three dingers) while walking three and striking out just two over four innings in a 13-6 loss to the Cubs on Sunday. Anderson has been solid overall this year though, but I’ll point out that the Brewers are just 7-9 (-1.2 units) already in all “day” games, while Arizona is 3-1 (+2.3 units) in its last four in the same position. Recent performance is often the best indicator we have when properly judging starting pitching and in this case I think Greinke has a major advantage. I’m laying the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-17 | Reds v. Phillies -137 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (4:05 EST). After yesterday’s 5-2 defeat, I like the Phillies to bounce back this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Bronson Arroyo (3-4, 6.75 ERA) who was shelled for six runs over five innings in a setback to Colorado on Sunday. In the disastrous outing he’d give up nine hits (including four dingers), while walking two and hitting one. Note that Arroyo has been particularly horrible on the road this year by going 0-2 with an 8.05 ERA. The home side counters with Jerad Eickhoff (0-5, 4.70) who also comes in off a loss to the Rockies on Monday, allowing four runs off nine hits with no walks across six innings. Eickhoff has looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others, but note Philadelphia is 2-1 (+1.2 units) in its last three following a loss. And I’ll also point out that the Reds are just 2-4 (-1.8 units) this season when the money line is between +125 to -125. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers -135 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 29 h 49 m | Show |
This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the LA Dodgers (10:10 EST). I think this is a bigger mismatch on the mound than what Las Vegas is leading us to believe. If this was three years ago, Jake Arrieta would have been a -200 favorite on the road. But that was then and this is now. Arrieta (5-3, 4.80 ERA) has been hit-or-miss for a while now, although he does come in off a decent outing against the Brewers on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits over six innings. He had lost two straight previous to that and note that he owns an atrocious 11.25 ERA in the first innings of his starts this season. Arrieta’s peripherals suggest rockier times ahead as well and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 3-3, 5.73 record/ERA. The home side counters with Alex Wood (5-0, 1.88) who has been spectacular over his last three starts, allowing just 13 hits while posting a 25:4 K/W across 18.1 scoreless innings of work. For the year he’s posted a 52:13 K/W over seven starts apanning 43 innings. Note that Wood has been paricularly dominant at home as well going 4-0 with a 1.59 ERA. I think Wood should/could easily be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-17 | Angels v. Marlins -118 | 5-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show | |
This is an 8* Situational Stunner on the Miami Marlins (7:10 EST). I think this interleague matchup favors Dan Straily and the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Jesse Chavez (4-5, 4.61 ERA) who earned a win over the Mets on Sunday despite giving up five runs over five innings. Chavez has been particularly pedestrian on the road this year with a 1-3, 4.44 ERA record. Straily (2-3, 3.70) looked pretty good in a win over the Dodgers on Sunday, giving up three runs off four hits while striking out eight over six innings. To go along with his decent 3.70 ERA, Straily also owns a tidy 1.03 WHIP and 8.9 K/9 ratio. Note that Straily has been particularly effective at home this year with a tiny 1.95 ERA. For this pick I’m primarily focusing on the starting pitchers and in this case, there’s no question in my mind that Straily has a big upper-hand in this matchup. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-17 | Reds v. Phillies -130 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I think Aaron Nola and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Tim Adleman (2-2, 6.19 ERA) who was supposed to start yesterday, but who got pushed over to today because of rain. In his prevoius outing Adleman was shelled for six runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out four over 4.2 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Rockies on Saturday. Adleman has gotten worse as the season has progressed as he’s now allowed 11 earned runs over his las tthree starts. Note that he’s been partcularly horrible on the road as well, going 0-2 with a ghastly 11.37 ERA. The Phillies counter with Nola (2-1, 3.52) who returned from the ten day DL to allow one run off four hits over seven innings in a 1-0 loss to Pittsburgh on Sunday, striking out five in the process. Nola only needed 89 pitches to get thorugh the seven frames and his fastball topped out at 95.5 MPH. MLB handicapping often comes down to getting a proper read on the starting pitching and in this case I feel Nola should/could in fact be a much larger fav. This is classic mismatch, lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 215.5 | Top | 135-102 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST). Game 4 fell below the posted number and I’m expecting another lower-scoring affair here as well. I think this is a great “situational” play, as I simply don’t think that Boston has anything left in the tank. I actually had a play on the Celtics in their epic outright Game 3 victory. I had a play on the “under” in Game 4. But here I feel that the C’s have finally run out of gas and I expect the determined Cavaliers to clamp down defensively and end this series immediately so as to not prolong it any further as they start to focus on Golden State. Cleveland rolled through the playoffs, but the Game 3 loss was a big wake up call for the team. To begin with the Cavaliers simply ran the other teams off the court, but now that the postseason has worn on, fatigue is finally starting to set in. So from a “situational” stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair in my opinion. The numbers also support our play on the “under,” as note that the Cavs have seen the total go under in 15 of their last 27 when leading in a playoff series, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of six this year when trailing in a playoff series. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-17 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 2-3 | Push | 0 | 35 h 17 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Senators/Penguins (8:00 EST). For the most part I’ve had a pretty good read on this series, although I did have a loser with the Penguins in Game 6. This has been a highly competitive series which has featured great goaltending at times and great offensive apptititude in others. The Senators’ Craig Anderson looked brilliant in Game 6, after getting destroyed 7-0 in Game 5. Pittsburgh has used both Marc-Andre Fleury and Matt Murray in this series, but it’ll be Murray that gets the call tonight. But for this pick, I think it’s going to be the offenses that everyone is talking about tomorrow morning. It’s do-or-die, a winner takes all trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line and suffice it to say, I’m expecting some fireworks! And note, Ottawa has in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in all four games so far in the playoffs when tied in a series, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go over the number in ten of 15 this year after scoring one goal or less in its previous contest. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-17 | Rangers v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 22 h 35 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (7:10 EST). I think Boston can build off its big 9-4 win yesterday with another convincing victory this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Martinez (1-2, 4.33 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and a walk over five innings in a victory over the Tigers on Friday. I’m not reading too much into one decent outing though, as note that it was just the first time in four starts that he’s given up less than three runs. And note that he’s been particularly bad on the road with a 1-2, 5.51 record/ERA. The home side counters with Drew Pomeranz (3-3, 4.97) who comes in off a strong performance against the A’s on Saturday, allowing two runs off five hits with six K’s over five innings in an eventual no-decision. Pomeranz has been hit-or-miss this year, but he’s been decent at home with a 3-1, 4.18 record/ERA. I’ll point out that Texas is just 10-12 (-1.1 units) this year after a loss, while Boston is 15-12 in its last 27 against clubs with winning records. I think Boston’s big bats take advantage of this matchup. Play on the Red Sox on the run-line. Good luck…Larry |
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05-24-17 | Angels v. Rays -116 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* AL GAME OF THE MONTH is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST). LA has taken the first two games of this series, but I think the home side will bounce back in the finale. The vistors hand the ball to Ricky Nolasco (2-3, 4.01 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to New York on Friday, striking out four. Nolasco has been hit-or-miss all year, so far he’s 1-2 with a 3.72 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Erasmo Ramirez (2-0, 3.00) who gave up two runs off six hits and one walk while stirking out five over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Yankees on Friday. So far Ramirez has given up just two runs over his 9.1 innings of work spanning two starts this year. Note that he was 3-2 with a 2.66 ERA at home last year. I’ll also point out that LA is just 16-18 (-2.5 units) against right-handed starterst this year, while Tampa Bay is 18-14 (+4.6 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rays. Good luck…Larry |
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05-24-17 | Blue Jays v. Brewers UNDER 9 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 6 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is the under Jays/Brewers (1:10 EST). These teams combined for just seven runs in the Jays 4-3 victory yesterday and suffice it to say, I think we have another “pitchers duel” on our hands in the finale. Toronto hands the ball to ace Marcus Stroman (4-2, 3.00 ERA) who gave up no runs off seven hits and a walk over six innings in 9-0 win over the Braves on Thursday, also striking out six. Stroman has been particularly effective of late, posting a tiny 1.02 ERA over his last 17.2 innings of work. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.63 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Matt Garza (2-0, 2.43 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and a walk over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Padres on Wednesday, striking out three as well. Garza has been sharp at home so far, 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA. I’ll point out that Toronto has seen the total go under the number in nine of 14 “day” games, while Milwaukee has seen the total go under in three of five interleague contests thus far. With these two competent hurlers going head-to-head, all signs point to a lower-scoring under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-24-17 | Twins v. Orioles -117 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Orioles (12:35 EST). After falling 2-0 yesterday, I like the home side to bounce back and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Berrios (2-0, 0.59 ERA) who went seven scoreless against Colorado on Thursday, giving up just two hits and striking out 11. The sample size is simply too small to properly judge Berrios yet and I find it impossible for the 2nd year pro to continue this blistering pace. Note the he posted a 6.75 ERA in five starts on the road last year. The home side counters with Chris Tillman (1-0, 3.52) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while striking out four over six innings in a no-decision against Toronto on Friday. Tillman has given up three or fewer runs in each of his three starts and note that he’s been particuarly sharp at home, going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA. I’ll point out as well that the Twins are just 8-13 (-5.4 units) in all “day” games this year, while the Orioles are 2-1 (+1 unit) in their last three in the same position. I think Tillman is the call here as regression seems imminent for Berrios. Play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-17 | Celtics v. Cavs UNDER 216 | Top | 99-112 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U PERFECT STORM on the under Celtics/Cavaliers (8:30 EST). I had a play on Boston in Game 3. I wish I had it on the money line, but regardless, it was a very sweet victory nonetheless. So far two of three have flown above the posted number in this series, but I think Game 4 sets up as more of a defensive battle. The Celtics responded well in their first game without star Isaiah Thomas in the line-up, who has been lost for the rest of the playoffs with a hip injury. Cleveland had a 21 point lead at half time, but fell apart defensively in the second half. LeBron James had his worst game of the playoffs so far. Clearly James will be much better tonight, but regardless, Boston will once again be trying its best to slow down “The King.” Boston’s Marcus Smart had a career night in Game 3, finishing with 27 points. Clearly the Cavs will be blanketing the dynamic guard this evening as well. So far the Cavs haven’t put a massive emphasis on the defensive end in the playoffs, rather they’ve been running teams off the court with their dynamic offense. However, now that they’ve suffered their first loss and with fatigue finally becoming a factor, I’m expecting the defending champs to put a renewed focus on that end of the court tonight. The numbers support our play on the “under” as well, as I’ll point out that Boston has seen the total go under the number in five of eight this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Cleveland has seen the total dip below the number in four of its last five in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. I think Boston runs out of gas, I think the Cavs control the tempo and I think this one falls under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-17 | Penguins -145 v. Senators | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 32 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Penguins (8:00 EST). I’ve played on Ottawa twice in this series and won big as an underdog in each case. I had the “over” in the Penguin’s 7-0 Game 5 victory. This is the first time I’ve played on Pittsburgh in this series though. At right around the -150 range, I think the defending champs offer great value in this spot. Pittsburgh got some timely goaltending from veteran Marc-Andre Fleury to open the playoffs, but he’d eventually stumble against the Sens, which promoped the move to All Star Matt Murray. The move has paid immediate dividends as the Sens have managed to post just two total goals over their last two games. Ottawa netminder Craig Anderson was a disaster in Game 5, so the big question is will he be able to pull himself together for Game 6? Maybe, but then again, maybe not. Murray has a huge advantage here. Note that he’s now 17-6 with a 1.97 GAA and .927 save percentage lifetime in the postseason. The Senators were outshot 36-25, went 0-for-4 on power play and were not able to kill any of the three man-advantage opportunities by the Penguins in Game 5. PIttsburgh is just too deep and too experienced. With a chance to wrap this one up and punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Final with a date against the waiting Predators, all signs point to the Penguins as the correct move here. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-17 | Blue Jays v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 105 | 2 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is the under Jays/Brewers (1:10 EST). Analysis posted at least six hours before game time. |
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05-23-17 | Indians -146 v. Reds | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 26 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). I believe this is a much bigger pitching mismatch than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (4-2, 2.60 ERA) who left his last start early because of pectoral soreness. Carrasco was given an extra two days off and has been cleared to go tonight. Note that Carrasco has been particularly nasty on the road this year, coming in 4-0 with a minuscule 1.35 ERA away from friendly confines thus far. The home side counters with Amir Garrett (3-3, 5.18) who was shelled for six runs off five hits and four walks over just four innings in a loss to the Cubs on Thursday. Garrett has been hit-or-miss in his rookie season and note, this is a spot in which the Reds have done terrible in already this year, going just 14-32 (-11.6 units) in their last 46 home games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I like Carrasco to easily outduel his volatile counterpart, lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-17 | Royals +125 v. Yankees | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 26 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:05 EST). I had a play on the Yanks last night, but I think that the visitors will bounce back with their ace coming to the mound on Tuesday. The Royals hand the ball to Danny Duffy (3-3, 2.97 ERA) who went seven scoreless in Thursday’s victory over these very Yankees, allowing three hits, two walks and posting 10 K’s. After back-to-back crummy starts against the White Sox of all teams, Duffy has bounced back with three straight quality outings to push his ERA back under 3.00. During that stretch he’s posted an 18:5 K/W ratio spanning 20.2 innings. The home side counters with rookie Jordan Montgomery (2-3, 4.81) who threw opposite Duffy last week and who got shelled for five runs off four hits and three walks over five innings in the eventual 5-1 setback. Note that Montgomery owns a poor 4.98 ERA at home thus far, while Duffy has a very respectable 3.24 ERA on the road. I like Duffy to easily outduel his volatile counterpart again today and I look for the Royals to take advantage and avenge yesterday’s setback. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-17 | Warriors v. Spurs +11.5 | Top | 129-115 | Loss | -105 | 32 h 44 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the San Antonio Spurs (9:00 EST). Will the Warriors stumble like the Cavaliers did last night and lose this one outright? Probably not. But the Spurs won’t be going down without a fight, so while I’ll stop short in calling for the upset, I do think that the home side will play with pride and keep this one competitive until the final moments. Other than Za Za Pachulia’s injury, there’s nothing much to report about the Warriors. They remain the highest scoring team in the playoffs, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively. Exactly the same as in the regular season. The Spurs on the other hand are now ravaged with injury. They lost Tony Parker in Round 1, then Kawhi Leonard in Game 1 of this series. David Lee went down in Game 3 and is out for the remainder of the year as well. But San Antonio still has weapons in LaMarcus Aldridge and Manu Ginobili. Like the Celtics, one of the main strengh’s of the Spurs is their incredible depth. I think the Spurs’ effort in this one will be the difference maker in the end. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-17 | Ducks +130 v. Predators | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Anaheim Ducks (8:00 EST). This has been a rather difficult series to predict. With their backs against the wall though, I think the Ducks can stave off elimination and send this one back to Anaheim for an exciting Game 7 for a winner takes all ticket to the Stanley Cup Final! The Ducks will look to kick start their No. 1 playoff offense after falling 3-1 in Game 5. Anaheim though did get 33 shots on net. But a date on the road is just what the doctor ordered for Anaheim, as it’s 5-2 away from friendly confines in the playoffs thus far. Anaheim will likely start Jonathan Bernier in net, who came in in relief of an injured John Gibson in the first period of Game 5. Gibson is listed as questionable tonight. Bernier is 1-1 with a 2.34 GAA in the postseason in his career. Clearly it won’t be easy, as the Predators have been tough at home and goaltender Pekka Rinne has been unbelievable, now 11-4 with a 1.62 GAA in the postseason. The Ducks though have been “money in the bank” in this situation in the playoffs, now 4-1 (+3.1 units) when trailing in a playoff series and 13-3 (+10 units) this year after a loss by two goals or more in their previous outing. And note that the Predators have struggled in this spot, going just 14-17 (-7.6 units) this season following a victory by two goals or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on Anaheim. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-17 | Pirates -121 v. Braves | 2-5 | Loss | -121 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:35 EST). Pittsburgh won 1-0 at home over Philadelphia yesterday, while the Braves fell 3-2 at home to Washington. Ultimately I think tonight’s pitching matchup favors the vistors. The Pirates hand the ball to Gerrit Cole (2-4, 2.84 ERA) who held Washington to one run over seven frames, scattering three hits and striking out three in the 6-1 victory. In his four losses, the Pirates have managed a combined five runs. Cole is throwing at an elite level right now, but simply not getting the support. Yet. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (2-4, 4.10) who gave up three runs off six hits over six innings in a win over Toronto on Wednesday, going on to strike out just one. Foltynewicz has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 6.35 ERA in front of the home town crowd thus far. Also note that Pittsburgh is 10-9 (+2.9 units) this season following a victory, while ATL is just 7-15 (-6.5 units) following a loss. I like Cole to outduel his volatile counterpart and I expect the Pirates to finally provide their ace with some support. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-17 | Angels v. Rays -129 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -129 | 28 h 22 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Tampa Bay Rays (7:10 EST). The Angels come in off a satisfying 12-5 win over the Mets in New York yesterday afternoon, while the Rays are looking to bounce back after a tough 3-2 setback at home to the Yanks. I like Tampa to deliver the goods here and think that Jake Odorizzi is getting disrespected in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to JC Ramirez (3-3, 3.97 ERA) who gave up two runs over seven innings while striking out two in a win over the light-hitting White Sox on Tuesday. Previous to that he’d been shelled for five runs in four innings. Ramirez has regressed as the season has progressed as evidenced by his poor 3.6 K/9 over his last three starts (note that he owns a pathetic 5.12 ERA on the road as well). The home side counters with Odorizzi (3-2, 3.16) who gave up four runs off seven hits and one walk over six innings in a victory over Cleveland on Tuesday, also going on to strike out five. To go along with his respectable 3.16 ERA, Odorizzi sports a fantastic 0.89 WHIP through 37 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that LA is just 8-15 (-6.7 units) on the road this year, while Tampa is 14-8 (+7.4 units) this season following a loss. In my opinion Odorizzi should be a much bigger fav in this matchup. Play on Tampa. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-17 | Royals v. Yankees -164 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 17 m | Show | |
The third 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). This is a pick that’s definitely on the “upper end” of chalk that I’ll lay, but for a number of different reasons I think that Michael Pineda is worth the price of admission in this matchup. KC comes in off a satisfying 6-4 win in Minnesota last night and hands the ball to Jason Vargas (5-2, 2.03 ERA) who was just annihilated by these very Yankees in Wednesday’s 11-7 loss, giving up six runs off seven hits and two walks over four innings of work. Vargas’ numbers are impressive, sporting a 43:10 K/W ratio over 48.2 innings of work, but regression seems imminent now in my opinion. Pineda (4-2, 3.42) threw opposite Vargas in that one and earned the win after giving up four runs (three earned) off six hits while striking out five over six innings. Pineda has now posted three straight quality starts and his 55:8 K/W ratio over 47.1 innings of work remains one of the best in the entire league. I’ll point out that KC is just 13-17 (-3.8 units) against right-handed starters this year, while New York is 7-3 (+4.4 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, lay the price with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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05-21-17 | Celtics +14.5 v. Cavs | Top | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 34 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is the Boston Celtics (8:30 EST). I got down on this one early (before it was announced that Celtics’ star Isaiah Thomas would be out for the remainder of the playoffs) and have a poor line. But regardless, I still like this play as I expect the undermanned Celtics to fight hard, to keep this one competitive down the stretch and I look for it to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample amount of points they’ve been afforded. Cleveland will look to jump out to an early insurmountable lead, but with the knowledge that Thomas is out, will the Cavs rest some of their starters in the second half? Very likely, as the defending champs can now safely start “looking ahead” to their third straight matchup with the Warriors in the Finals. I’ll point out though that Boston is still 10-5 ATS this year after a loss by ten points or more, while Cleveland is just 3-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less. Even with Thomas out, I think the Celtics respond after their historic beatdown loss in Game 2. The Spurs weren’t able to cover last night with their superstar out, but I believe all signs point to Celtics being able to succeed, where San Antonio failed.. Grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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05-21-17 | Red Sox -111 v. A's | Top | 12-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER SIDE is on the Boston Red Sox (4:05 EST). I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox to bounce back after yesterday’s 8-3 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez (2-1, 3.05 ERA) who gave up three runs off five hits and two walks while stirking out five over six innings in a 6-3 victory over St. Louis on Tuesday. It marked his fifth straight quality outing, a stretch in which the southpaw has posted a 2.40 ERA, struck out 32 and given up just a single home run spanning 30 innings of work. The A’s rank 26th in the league in runs scored, so yesterday’s outburst was definitely out of the norm. The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (5-2, 2.12) who gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision against the Mariners on Tuesday. Triggs has been a big surprise in his second year in the league, as he ranks among the best in the AL in several categories. I’ll point out though that the A’s are just 9-10 (-1.7 units) this season following a victory, while the Red Sox are 13-7 (+3.8 units) following a loss. For arguments sake, lets call these starters a “wash.” I think the situation and the numbers swing the scales in favor of the visitors though. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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05-21-17 | Senators v. Penguins OVER 5 | Top | 0-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* SUPER TOTAL is the over Senators/Penguins (3:00 EST). Ottawa had a great opportunity to take a strangle-hold on this series, but came out flat in Game 4 and now it heads back to Pennsylvania for Game 5 all tied up at two games apiece with the defending champs. Both teams have looked great at times in this series and pretty average in others. For the most part Ottawa wins games with its defense, while the Penguins win with their offense. Ottawa is ranked seventh in the playoffs in scoring with 2.69 per game, while conceding the sixth lowest at 2.44. Pittsbrugh is ranked No. 2 in the postseason on offense with 2.94 GPG, while ranked seventh in least goals allowed with 2.50 conceded. I’ll call the Sens’ Craig Anderson and the Pens’ Matt Murray a “wash” in net. But note, Ottawa has in fact seen the total go over the number in all three games that it’s played in the postseason when tied in a playoff series, while Pittsburgh has seen the total eclipse the posted number in two of its last three home games where the total is five or less. I think the situation lends itself to a faster-paced, higher-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-17 | Diamondbacks -104 v. Padres | Top | 9-1 | Win | 100 | 32 h 36 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (10:10 EST). I think lefty Robbie Ray and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks offer pretty good value in this spot. Ray (2-3, 4.57 ERA) comes in off an outing to forget, allowing four runs off six hits and three walks over four innings in a no-decision against Pittsburgh on Sunday. Ray started off with a 3.47 ERA over his first six starts, but back-to-back duds has raised it more than a full point. Still, note that he’s 1-1 with a 1.45 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Luis Perdomo (0-0, 4.19) who gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine in a no-decision against the Brewers on Monday. Perdomo has now posted six straight no-decisions to open the 2017 campaign. Perdomo has been serviceable this year, note that he owns a pedestrian 4.84 ERA in front of the home town crowd though. I’ll point out as well that Arizona is 18-11 (+7.2 units) against right-handed starters this season and 14-10 (+4.2 units) following a victory, while San Diego is just 5-8 (-1.8) against southpaws this year and only 10-18 (-6 units) following a loss. For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-17 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 212 | Top | 120-108 | Loss | -105 | 76 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Warriors/Spurs (9:00 EST). It’s do-or-die time for the Spurs, who will give it everything they have to try and claw their way back into this series after dropping both in Golden State. The Warriors came roaring from behind to take Game 1, 113-111 and then followed it up with a blowout 136-100 victory in Game 2. I think this is a great “situational” play, as San Antonio will have to do what it does best if it has any shot at stealing this game outright and that’s play suffocating defense from start to finish. Whether Kawhi Leonard plays or not, I’m expecting the Spurs to put together their best defensive effort of this series so far. This one also sets up nicely from a trend based stand point, as note that Golden State has seen the total go under the number in five of eight this year after playing to three or more consecutive “overs,” while San Antonio has seen the total dip below the posted number in three of its last four after playing three consecutive road games. I don’t think the Warriors are going to shoot 56 percent from the floor again like they did in Game 2. If San Antonio is going down, it’s not going down without a fight. All signs point to this one sneaking under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-17 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -159 | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 29 h 1 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (7:35 EST). I like the Orioles to build off last night’s 5-3 victory. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Bolsinger (0-2, 6.10 ERA) who gave up six runs off eight hits over four innings in a loss to the Braves on Monday. After a decent debut, Bolsinger made a predictable immediate step back into mediocrity. He was 1-4 with a 6.83 ERA last year, including 0-3 with a 5.14 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the equally as struggling Kevin Gausman (2-3, 7.19) who was rocked for five runs off nine hits while striking out three in a fortunate no-decision against the Royals on Sunday. Gausman was just 9-12 last year, but he posted a very respectable 3.61 ERA. Clearly he’s been a disapointment to this point in 2017. Note though, while he was just 3-10 with a pedestrian 4.32 ERA on the road last season, he was 6-2 with a 2.67 ERA in front of the home town crowd. I’ll also point out that despite its recent surge of late, Toronto is still just 8-14 (-4.7 units) on the road this year, only 11-12 (-3.6 units) following a loss and 11-18 (-9 units) in all “night” games, while Baltimore is 14-9 (+4.8 units) following a victory and 14-3 (+10.6) at home. I give Gausman the slight nod on the bump and I think that’ll be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of the hard-hitting home side. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-17 | Predators v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -130 | 32 h 6 m | Show |
This is a 10* O/U PERFECT STORM on the over Predators/Ducks (7:15 EST). I had a play on the “over” in Game 4 and feel rather lucky to have earned the “push,” as after being down 2-0 for most of the game, the Predators would score two late ones to push the game to OT in the Ducks eventual 3-2 victory. This series is all knotted up at two and suffice it to say, I do definitely expect a more wide open affair in Game 5 and look for this one to fly over the posted number sooner rather than later. Clearly Nashville will be looking for a better start after the sluggish Game 4 performance, getting outshot 14-2 in the first period. Anaheim fell apart defensively late, but kept its playoff goal average going at a steady three GPG, ranked No. 1 overall. From a trend based stand point, this one also sets up a great as a higher-scoring affair, as note that the Predators have seen the total go over the number in 11 of 16 this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent, while the Ducks have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last seven conference finals matchups. With both teams pushing the pace, all signs do indeed point to a higher-scoring “over.” Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-17 | Giants v. Cardinals -154 | 3-1 | Loss | -154 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (7:15 EST). I like the Cards to bounce back here after yesterday’s 6-5 setback. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jeff Samardzija (1-5, 5.26 ERA) who comes in off his first win of the year, holding the soft-hitting Reds to three runs off nine hits over six innings in the eventual 8-3 victory. Samrdzija sports a career-worst 10.7 K/9. Note that Samardzija is already a horrible 0-3 with 6.66 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Carlos Martinez (3-3, 3.88) who enters off his third straight win, giving up three earned runs off five hits and four walks over 6.2 innings while also striking out seven against the defending champs on Saturday. It was his fourth straight quality start. Note that Martinez is 2-1 with a respectable 3.06 ERA at home this year. I’ll point out that San Francisco is just 8-15 (-9.8 units) against right-handed starters this season, while St. Louis is 18-13 (+2.5 units) in the same position. In this clear pitching mismatch, I have no issues at all in laying this reasonable mid-sized price on the revenge-minded Cardinals. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-17 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 220 | Top | 130-86 | Win | 100 | 35 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the under Cavs/Celtics (8:30 EST). I played the under 219.5 in Game 1 and the team’s would combine to post 221. It was a tough loss for sure. A big third quarter was the difference, as the teams combined for 40 points by the six-minute mark after the break. The Cavs looked fresh, while the C’s looked gassed. But with Game 1 now in the books, I don’t expect these team’s to put together another third-quarter effort like they had in Game 1 and I look for this one to fall below the number once it’s all said and done. Clearly slowing down LeBron James will be Boston’s No. 1 priority, he is averaging 34.8 points, nine boards and 7.1 assists in the postseason. Will Cleveland center Tristan Thompson have back-to-back monster games? The big man exploded for a career playoff-high 20 points, going 7 of 7 from the floor. In fact, swingman Kevin Love also posted a career playoff-high 32 points to go along with 12 boards. Both are capable, but i just don’t see it happening in consecutive contests. Boston needs to control the tempo of this game if it has any shot at avoiding the 2-0 sweep in front of the home town crowd. But how much gas do the Celtics have left after their seven-game series win over the Wizards? Boston can’t expect to turn this series into a “track meet” and beat the Cavs, so look for plenty of half-court sets on the offensive end for the home side this evening. I’ll also point out that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in two of its last three after scoring 113 points or more, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of ten when trailing in a playoff series. This number is just a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-17 | Penguins v. Senators +103 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 1 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Ottawa Senators (8:00 EST). I took the Sens as a +190 dog in Game 1 and won. I then took the “over” in Game 2 and lost. I then came back with Ottawa in Game 3. With a chance to take a stangle hold on this series, I love the Senators to once again shutdown the Penguins and to take advantage of some shaky goaltending from Pittsburgh starter Marc-Andre Fleury, who now clearly appears to be out of gas. Matt Murray, who hasn’t seen any action in months, came on in relief and made 19 saves after Fleury allowed four goals on nine shots in the setback.. Whoever gets the call in net for the defending champs though, it’s safe to say that their are major issues in this department for Pittsburgh. Meanwhile, Sens’ netminder Craig Anderson appears to be getting stronger as the playoffs progress, he made 25 saves in Game 3 and is now 10-5 with a 2.20 GAA in the postseason. Pittsburgh hasn’t been able to score more than one goal in a game against Ottawa and it’s not going to get any easier tonight. This Sens team is incredibly deep, talented and hungry. Ottawa continues to get little respect from the oddsmakers in my opinion. Play on the Senators. Good luck…Larry |
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