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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights +118 v. Capitals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* NHL GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Las Vegas Golden Knights (8:05 EST). Las Vegas steamrolled the Capitals 6-4 in Game 1, but since then it’s been all Washington in this series. With their backs against the wall and looking to tie this series up before heading home, I think the Golden Knights will indeed pull off the minor upset in Game 4. Once again it’ll Marc-Andre Fleury in net for the Knights (13-5, 1.95 GAA in the playoffs), vs. Braden Holtby for the Capitals (14-7, 2.13 GAA). Note that Vegas comes into this one averaging 2.89 goals per game in the playoffs, while conceding 2.06. Tomas Nosek was a bright spot in the Game 3 loss and he now has four goals over his last five games. Washington comes into this one averaging 3.45 goals per game in the postseason and conceding 2.55. Alex Ovechkin continues to be a force for the Capitals, as he’d pot his 14th marker of the playoffs in the Game 3 victory. It’s hard to point out to many negatives for the Capitals, as they’ve been super solid across the board all year long and throughout the playoffs. I will point out though that Vegas is 12-3 (+8.7 units) this year after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. With the Capitals’ first Stanley Cup home game in 20 years out of the way, I predict a predictable letdown tonight. The Golden Knights know how to win on the road, going 28-22 overall away from friendly confines, including 6-3 in the playoffs. For all the reasons listed above, play on Las Vegas. Good luck…Larry |
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06-03-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks UNDER 9 | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 55 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the under Marlins/Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one on Sunday afternoon. Suffice it to say, I expect this total stay below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Dan Straily (2-1, 3.69 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Padres on Tuesday, allowing five runs off seven hits with four K’s over 5.2 innings. The silver lining behind the sub-par effort was that he walked none and was able to induce 12 swings-and-misses. To go along with his respectable ERA, note that Straily also owns a sharp 1.36 WHIP (note that Straily also sports a superb 2.78 ERA on the road thus far.) The home side counters with Matt Koch (3-3, 4.31) who earned a win in his last outing despite not being at his best, allowing five runs over five innings against Cincinnati on Monday. Koch has struggled at times this year, but I’ll point out that the Diamondbacks have seen the total dip below the posted number in 21 of 36 already this season vs. right-handed starters. I’m expecting these two hungry starters to battle into the latter frames and as a result, I do indeed look for this one to stay under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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06-03-18 | Indians -124 v. Twins | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -124 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians (2:10 EST). I think the hard-hitting visiting side will bounce back here after yesterday’s 7-1 defeat. The Tribe hand the ball to Mike Clevinger (4-2, 3.14 ERA) who comes in off a gem against the White Sox on Tuesday, giving up one run off four hits with two walks while posting seven K’s over 6.2 innings of work. Clevinger has been arguably the most consistent starter in the rotation for the Indians and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP with 61 K’s over 71.2 innings of work (also note that he’s been at his best on the road this season with a 2-1, 1.61 ERA record.) The home side counters with Kyle Gibson (1-3, 3.57) who went seven scoreless against the light-hitting Royals on Tuesday. Gibson has for the most part been as solid as the Twins could possible ask for, but it’s definitely interesting to note that while he’s so far posted a career best 9.4 K/9, he also owns a career worst 4.0 BB/9 at this point (and note that he’s 0-2 with a ballooned 5.76 ERA at home.) I’ll point out as well that Cleveland is already 15-8 (+2.8 units) in all “day” games this year, while Minnesota is just 8-10 (-3.2 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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06-03-18 | Blue Jays +115 v. Tigers | 8-4 | Win | 115 | 18 h 59 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (1:10 EST). The Blue Jays were swept by the Red Sox in a three-game series and if they don’t get their act together, they’re going to get swept by the Tigers as well. However, I do in fact believe that Toronto will finally step up here and find a way to get the job done at the end of the afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Sanchez (2-5, 4.77 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Monday, allowing seven runs off nine hits with one walk over five innings. Sanchez was sharp over five starts in April (3.66 ERA spanning 32 frames), but he’d come undone in May by posting a 5.96 ERA (spanning 22.2 innings.) Like the rest of his team, Sanchez will be eager to “right the ship” in the June. The home side counters with the volatile Michael Fulmer (2-4, 4.60) who was rocked for five runs off six hits with four walks over 3.1 innings in a loss to LA on Tuesday, managing just one K. Fulmer has now allowed multiple homers in three of his last five starts. Note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.02 ERA at home as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Toronto is still 8-4 (+4.3 units) this season when on the road with a money line set between -125 and +125, while Detroit is just 45-52 (-8.9 units) in its last 97 at home when the money line is set in the same price range. Desperation breeds motivation and winning can lead to complacency. I expect the “hungrier” team to come out on top Sunday. Play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-18 | Phillies -104 v. Giants | 0-2 | Loss | -104 | 25 h 36 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (10:05 EST). I think that Vince Velasquez offers great value in this spot. Velasquez (4-5, 4.08 ERA) comes in off a strong outing against the Dodgers on Monday, allowing two runs off three hits with two walks and six K’s over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that Velasquez is now definitely “hitting his stride,” as he’s allowed three runs or fewer in five straight starts. Note as well that the hard-throwing right-hander sports a sharp 3.06 ERA on the road this season. The home side counters with Andrew Suarez (1-4, 5.65) who gave up four runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Monday. Suarez has shown flashes of his potential, but his 1.7 HR/9 over 36.2 innings of work points to further regression sooner, rather than later in my opinion. Additionally I’ll point out that Philadelphia is a sharp 10-5 (+5.2 units) against southpaws this year, while San Fran is a horrible 13-21 (-7 units) against right-handed starters. As mentioned off the top, I think this is great value on the superior pitcher. Play on Philadelphia. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-18 | Reds v. Padres +101 | 2-8 | Win | 101 | 23 h 12 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Diego Padres (8:40 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors turn to the polarizing Matt Harvey (1-3, 5.63 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off nine hits and two walks over 5.1 innings in a loss to Colorado on Sunday. Harvey has been better for Cincinnati than he was for the Mets, but note that he’s still a poor 0-2 with a ballooned 6.04 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Eric Lauer (1-3, 7.67) who gave up five runs off seven hits with three K’s over just 2.1 innings in a loss to the Marlins on Monday. Lauer has struggled with consistency as well this year, but note that the Padres are 5-2 (+3.5 units) in their last seven at home with a money line that’s set between +125 to -125. Conversely note that the Reds are a poor 3-7 (-3.8 units) this season on the road when the money line in the contest is set in the same range. I like Lauer to get back on track here and I expect Harvey’s road struggles to continue. Play on the Padres. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 58 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Knights/Capitals (8:05 EST). Game 1 was a barn-burner with the Golden Knights prevailing 6-4. Vegas scored the first goal in Game 2, but then the Capitals would clamp down and in the end earn the 3-2 victory. I had Washington in Game 2 and Alexander Ovechkin and goaltender Braden Holtby, who made perhaps the save of the year, would come through in the end for the visiting side. While Game 2 stayed below the posted number, I think that Game 3 will feature a lot of scoring as each side pushes the pace from start to finish. So far Vegas goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury is 13-4 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs, while Braden Holtby is 13-7 with a 2.19 GAA. The Golden Knights come into this one averaging 3.06 GPG, while conceding 2.00. The Capitals come in averaging 3.48 GPG while allowing 2.62. I’ll point out though that Vegas has seen the total go over the number in 11 of 16 already this year when playing with two days rest, while Washington has seen the total eclipse the posted number in four of six already this season when tied in a playoff series. As mentioned off the top, I think that each side will be playing at a frantic pace, which will in turn lead to a high-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-18 | Dodgers v. Rockies +131 | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 47 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Colorado Rockies (7:15 EST). Coors Field is the great equalizer when it comes to starting pitching. I think that German Marquez and the hard-hitting home side offer great value in this spot. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler (3-1, 2.20 ERA) who gave up one earned run over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Padres on Sunday. The rookie has been sharp thus far, but clearly he has a tough task ahead of him tonight. Marquez (4-5, 4.21) gave up one earned run off five hits with two walks while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over the Reds on Sunday. Marquez had a 10.34 ERA in four home starts previous to that gem, but the hard-throwing right-hander got back on track in a big way after that performance. I’ll point out as well that LA is just 14-23 (-23.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Colorado is 19-15 (+6.1 units) in the same position. As mentioned off the top, the value is simply too great to turn down here. Play on Colorado. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-18 | Cubs v. Mets -112 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -112 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the New York Mets (7:15 EST). I think the home side will bounce back after yesterday’s 7-4 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Montgomery (1-1, 4.35) who picked up a victory in his first official start of the year on Monday, going 5.2 scoreless against the Pirates. Montgomery had posted a 5.33 ERA in all appearances previous to that though, so to say I’m not reading too much into a single decent effort would be an understatement. The home side counters with ace Jacob DeGrom (4-0, 1.52) who comes in off a no-decision against the Braves on Monday, giving up one run off five hits and three walks with eight K’s over seven innings. DeGrom has been “lights out” across the board this year, especially at home where he’s 2-0 with a 1.45 ERA. Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago is just 32-38 (-7.8 units) in its last 70 on the road when the money line is set between +125 to -125, while New York is 5-2 (+1.3 units) this season when the money line in the contest is the same. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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06-02-18 | Nationals -124 v. Braves | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:10 EST). I think the Nationals will bounce back here off their 4-0 defeat last night. The visitors hand the ball to Gio Gonzalez (6-2, 2.10 ERA) who comes in off a second straight victory, going 7.2 scoreless and striking out three against the Orioles on Monday. Over 11 starts the hard-throwing southpaw has posted the elite 2.10 ERA to go along with a sharp 63/28 K/W spanning 64.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Brandon McCarthy (5-2, 5.02) who gave up five runs off nine hits with two K’s over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Mets on Monday. McCarthy has looked great at times this year, but very horrible in others. Note that he sports a poor 6.04 ERA at home thus far. Additionally I’ll point out that Washington is 6-2 in its last eight after getting shutout in its previous contest, while Atlanta is just 2-5 in its last seven after shutting out its opponent in its previous outing. In my opinion, this line could easily be larger. Play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -140 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Elieser Hernandez (0-2, 2.50 ERA) who gave up two runs off six hits with no walks and three K’s over five innings in a loss to the Nationals on Sunday. Over 18 innings Hernandez has given up five earned runs. The sky is the limit for the rookie, but clearly the sample size is way too small to make a proper judgement and there’s no question that he draws a tough matchup on the road in this one. The home side counters with Clay Buchholz (0-1, 1.64) who comes in off a hard-luck loss against the A’s on Saturday, giving up one run off two hits with zero walks while striking out three over six innings. Over two starts Buchholz has now allowed just two runs. Neither of these starters instills a ton of confidence obviously, but I’ll point out though that the Marlins are a poor 2-7 (-3.4 units) in their last nine as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while the D-Backs are a solid 6-3 (+2.4 units) in their last nine as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. For all the reasons listed above, play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-18 | Nationals v. Braves +122 | 0-4 | Win | 122 | 24 h 49 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Stephen Strasburg (6-4, 3.13 ERA) who went five scoreless in a win over the Marlins on Sunday. Strasburg has once again been as solid as the Nationals could hope for this year and it’s hard to say anything negative about the hard-throwing right-hander, so I’m not going to bother. I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (4-3, 2.55) who also comes in off a gem, giving up one run off three hits with three walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Red Sox on Sunday. To go along with his solid ERA, Foltynewicz also sports a sharp 1.28 WHIP and 69 K’s over 60 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that ATL is a solid 22-12 (+11.8 units) against its division this year, while Washington is just 4-6 (-2.4 units) in its last ten against divisional foes For all the reasons listed above, play the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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06-01-18 | Blue Jays -101 v. Tigers | 2-5 | Loss | -101 | 23 h 15 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:10 EST). After the Tigers beat up on the Angels this week, I think the home side comes out flat in the opener of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Jamie Garcia (2-3, 5.52 ERA) who comes in off a gem against Philadelphia on Saturday, allowing one run off five hits with zero walks and five K’s over seven frames in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Garcia only needed 73 pitches to get through the dominant effort, 52 of which were strikes. The home side counters with Blaine Hardy (1-0, 2.70) who comes in off a win against the light-hitting White Sox on Sunday, giving up one run off three hits with one walk over seven innings. Hardy has looked decent in his limited time in the rotation, but he’s expected to head back to the bullpen shortly with Jordan Zimmermann returning from injury. I’ll point out additionally that Toronto is already 4-2 (+1.5 units) this year after three or more consecutive losses and 11-8 (+1.2 units) against teams with losing records, while Detroit is just 14-17 (-1 unit) against clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Blue Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-18 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the over Marlins/Padres (9:10 EST). While neither of these teams is known for its offensive prowess, I think they’ll combine for more than enough runs to push this total over this low number. The visitors hand the ball to Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 5.22 ERA) who gave up one earned run off three hits over 7.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Washington on Saturday. Chen has looked better of late, but I’ll caution that he’s still 0-2 with a disastrous 10.95 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Jordan Lyles (1-1, 3.83) who was most recently rocked for five runs off seven hits and four walks 4.2 innings in a very fortunate no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Lyles was rocked for two home runs in the setback and that’s now back-to-back shaky outings for the veteran. I don’t trust either of these staters. This number is a little low. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 114-124 | Loss | -109 | 68 h 55 m | Show |
My 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR is on the Golden State Warriors (9:00 EST). The Cavaliers have LeBron James, but not much else. The King has already lost to the Warriors in two of three Final appearances and while he may be able to pull off another upset overall in this series, I don’t think the Warriors will stumble at home in Game 1. James has already gone on record as saying that he normally uses Game 1 of a series as a “feeler.” The Cavaliers are horrible defensively, especially around the perimeter. Golden State looks more susceptible than it’s ever been, but this is a horrible matchup for James and company. Give the Warriors’ defense credit as well in Game 7 and throughout the series with high-scoring Rockets. The cast of characters from both teams is well known to even the most casual basketball fan (and that includes both their strength’s and weaknesses), so I’m not going to bother breaking down any individual player match ups here. I will point out though that the Cavs are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight overall in this series, while the Warriors are 4-1 ATS in their last five at home in this series. Also note that home teams in Game 1 of the NBA Finals are 17-3 SU over the last 20 years and over the last 15, have gone 13-2 SU/ATS. Golden State won both regular season meetings against the Cavs, albeit before Cleveland overhauled its lineup at the end of the year. To this point LBJ has been able to carry his team in the postseason. However, James now faces the most “complete” team in the entire league. In my opinion, everything points to a major ATS “b-l-o-w-o-u-t” for the home side in Game 1. Lay the points, play on the Warriors. Good luck..Larry |
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05-31-18 | Red Sox +188 v. Astros | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 52 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (8:10 EST). Clearly Lance McCullers has the advantage on the mound tonight, but I think that the surging Red Sox offer great value in this upset spot. The visitors hand the ball to Drew Pomeranz (1-2, 6.75 ERA) who will look to get back on track after allowing 12 runs over his last 11.1 innings of work. Manager Alex Cora most recently remarked: "He struggled against lefties, and it wasn't a great day for him, but we trust this guy. He was in the same spot last year, all of a sudden he turned it around. He'll go to Houston Thursday and make adjustments the next few days and see if it works out.” McCullers (6-3, 3.98) was most recently rocked for seven runs off six hits (including three dingers) with two walks over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Tribe on Saturday. Both pitchers are coming off “duds,” but the value is simply too good to turn down here with the red hot Red Sox. Note that Boston is already 6-2 this year after scoring six or more runs in its previous contest (won 6-4 at home over the Jays on Wednesday), while Houston is just 2-4 in its last six after three or more consecutive road games. Play on the Red Sox. Good luck…Larry |
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05-31-18 | Phillies v. Dodgers OVER 6.5 | 2-1 | Loss | -111 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the over Phillies/Dodgers (7:35 EST). A couple of competent hurlers go head-to-head in this one, but I still think this total is low. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola (6-2, 2.27 ERA) who gave up one run off one hit with three walks while striking out ten over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Saturday. The home side counters with Clayton Kershaw (1-4, 2.86) who will finally return to the rotation after an extended period off from injury. Most recently Kershaw threw a 60-pitch simulated game on Saturday. I’ll point out though that Philadelphia has seen the total go over the number in 13 of its last 20 road games then the total in the contest is set at 7 or less, while LA has seen the total fly above the posted number in eight of ten already this year at home when the total is 7 or less. I think Kershaw comes in with some rust and I look for this total to indeed fly over sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Godo luck…Larry |
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05-31-18 | Nationals v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 17 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under Nationals/Braves (7:35 EST). I look for these competent starters to battle into the latter innings and as a result, I expect this total to stay below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors turn to the Tanner Roark (2-4, 3.17 ERA) who gave up one earned run off four hits with two walks while striking out five over seven innings in a no-decision against the Marlins on Saturday. Roark has now gone three straight games of pitching at least seven frames and he ranks sixth overall in the National League in innings pitched (65.1). To go along with his respectable ERA, note that Roark also sports an elite 0.99 WHIP. The home side counters with Sean Newcomb (5-1, 2.75) who gave up three runs off six hits with four walks while striking out four over three innings in a no-decision against the Red Sox on Saturday. Newcomb uncharacteristically struggled in this outing, but note that previous to that he’d conceded just one run over 25 frames spanning four trips to the hill. Newcomb comes in rested, with two whole extra days off; note that he’s 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in all “night” contests. I’ll point out as well that Washington has already seen the total go under the number in 11 of 17 against left-handed starters this season, while Atlanta has seen the total dip below the posted number in 19 of 34 against right-handed starters. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-18 | Marlins v. Padres -123 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Diego Padres (10:10 EST). While neither starter instills much confidence, I still think that this one favors Clayton Richard and the home side. The visitors turn to Jose Urena (0-7, 4.69 ERA) who comes in off a strong start against the hard-hitting Nationals on Friday, allowing four runs while striking out seven with one walk over six innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Urena though has been a train-wreck on the road this year by going 0-1 with a 6.06 ERA thus far. Richard (3-6, 4.97) gave up four runs off four hits in a loss to the Dodgers on Friday, striking out four and walking three over six innings. Previous to that sub-par effort though Richard had thrown three straight quality starts, striking out 20 with just one walk spanning 23.1 innings of work. Note that Richard is also holding his opposition to a respectable .266 batting average, while also sporting a career best 7.5 K/9. I think Richard continues his progression, while recent form by Urena suggests he has another long night ahead of him. All things considered, a great price. Play on San Diego. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-18 | Giants +172 v. Rockies | 7-4 | Win | 172 | 25 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (8:40 EST). Coors Field is the ultimate equalizer for pitchers. While neither of these starters instills much confidence, suffice it to say, I think that Derek Holland and the Giants have much more than just a “punchers chance” in this one. Holland (2-6, 4.73 ERA) most recently gave up three runs (two earned) off five hits over six frames in a loss to the Cubs on Friday, striking out six and walking two. Holland has been competitive this season and note that he does own a decent 3.99 ERA on the road. The home side counters with the volatile Jon Gray (5-6, 5.40) who earned a win last time out despite giving up four runs off six hits with three walks over six innings against Cincinnati on Friday. Gray has decent strikeout numbers, but like his counterpart tonight, he continues to be susceptible to the long-ball. Note that he owns a 6.03 ERA at Coors thus far as well. I had a play on Colorado last night (my GAME OF THE WEEK), and it came through with the goods. However, I’ll point out that San Francisco is still 7-6 (4.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Colorado is just 1-2 (-1.4 units) this season as a home fav in the same price range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-18 | Capitals +138 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-2 | Win | 138 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Capitals (8:05 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 and clearly I was off on that prediction. These teams came out fired up and each goaltender looked shaky. Washington had two leads in Game 1, but the Golden Knights were able to quickly even things up and then pulled away in the final moments for the 6-4 victory. The Capitals though will be risking life and limb today to even this series before heading home and I believe their effort will be enough to score the upset on Wednesday. It’ll be Braden Holtby going for the visitors in net and he’s 12-7 with a 2.20 GAA, while the Golden Knights are going with the red hot Marc-Andre Fleury, who is 13-3 with a 1.82 GAA to this point in the playoffs. So far the Capitals are averaging 3.50 goals, while conceding 2.65 in the postseason, while the Golden Knights are averaging 3.06 goals and allowing 1.94. It’s impossible to point out any negative trends for the Knights this year, as they’ve truly re-written the history books with their improbable run to the Cup Final in their very first season. However I will point out that Washington is an unbelievably strong 4-1 (+2.4 units) already when trailing in a playoff series this year, while also 15-9 (+5.4 units) after a loss by two goals or more in its previous outing. I look for Alexander Ovechkin and company to find a way to tie this series up before heading back to the Nation’s capital. Play on the Capitals. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-18 | Cubs -122 v. Pirates | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -122 | 23 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST). I think the Cubs will build off their 8-6 win last night. I had a play on Chicago yesterday and after going down early, it managed to put together a couple of big innings in the middle. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Hendricks (4-3, 3.16 ERA) who gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over seven frames in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Hendricks has looked sharp of late with 19 K’s over his last 18 innings of work and note that he’s been especially good in all “night” games this year with a 3-1, 3.03 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (1-0, 0.00) who gave up five hits over seven scoreless while striking out seven with no walks in his season debut against the Pirates on Friday. It was an awesome start for Musgrove, but clearly regression is imminent (note that he owns a 4.52 lifetime ERA over 171.1 innings of work.) I like Hendricks to continue his steady progression, while I fully expect Musgrove to take a step back after his brilliant, albeit unsustainable start. Great value, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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05-30-18 | Cardinals v. Brewers +109 | 2-3 | Win | 109 | 17 h 14 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Milwaukee Brewers (1:10 EST). Alex Reyes has been on fire in Triple-A during his re-hab, but I still think he’s getting too much respect in his first call up to the big leagues. Reyes (0-0, 0.00 ERA) would post 44 K’s over 23 innings during his re-hab assignment for the Cards. Clearly the sky is the limit for Reyes, but I think he draws an incredibly tough matchup here on the road. The home side counters with Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98) who comes in off a no-decision against the Mets on Friday, allowing two runs over six innings. The hard-throwing right-hander would throw 52 of his 72 pitches for strikes, but a blown save in the ninth cost him the victory. Guerra comes in with a solid 3.71 ERA at home thus far. Additionally I’ll point out that St. Louis is just 7-12 (-5.9 units) this year on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Milwaukee is 17-10 (+7 units) at home. Great value, play on the Brewers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-29-18 | Giants v. Rockies -140 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 23 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Colorado Rockies (8:40 EST). I had a play on the Rockies yesterday and I’m back on the horse again on Tuesday night. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jeff Samardzija (1-3, 6.23 ERA) who was rocked for four runs off four hits with five walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Astros on Wednesday. Note that the veteran has had more K’s than walks in just two starts this year and to go along with his horrible ERA, he also sports a poor 25/23 K/W and 1.64 WHIP over 34.2 innings of work. And unfortunately for “The Shark,” a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to get untracked, as note that he’s just 1-2 with a 6.05 ERA away from friendly confines so far this year. The home side counters with Kyle Freeland (4-5, 3.28) who gave up three runs off six hits and three walks with three K’s over 6.1 innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Wednesday. Freeland has now posted six straight quality efforts and note that he’s been unbelievably effective at Coors Field so far with a 2-1, 1.40 ERA record. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Samardzija is once again “in over his head” in this matchup. This line could easily be larger in my opinion, indeed swinging the value to the home side. Lay the price, play on Colorado. Good luck…Larry |
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05-29-18 | Angels v. Tigers +120 | 9-2 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (7:10 EST). The Tigers upset the Angels yesterday afternoon and I think the home side will come out on top on Tuesday night as well. The visitors hand the ball to Nick Tropeano (2-3, 3.86 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits and one walk over 7.1 innings in a victory over the Blue Jays on Thursday. In his previous outing though Tropeano failed to make it out of the third inning against the Rays. Note as well that Tropeano is just 1-2 with a pedestrian 4.33 ERA in all “night” games so far this year. The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (2-3, 4.08) who comes in off his strongest start of the season, giving up one run off four hits with five K’s over 5.2 innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Twins on Tuesday. Fulmer has to be feeling confident that he can keep the momentum rolling as well, as note that he owns a very respectable 3.91 ERA at home thus far this year. I’m banking on Fulmer out-lasting his inconsistent counterpart and for the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Great value, play on the Tigers. Good luck..Larry |
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05-29-18 | Cubs -113 v. Pirates | 8-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Chicago Cubs (7:05 EST). I like the Cubs to build off their 7-0 win yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Jon Lester (4-2, 2.37 ERA) who comes in off a tough luck loss, allowing one run off six hits while striking out four over seven innings against the Tribe on Wednesday. Note that Lester has been sharp on the road with a 2-1, 2.93 ERA record thus far. The home side counters with Nick Kingham (2-1, 3.44) who has been recalled from Triple-A Indianapolis to make this start due to an injury to Ivan Nova. So far he’s posted the 3.44 ERA over three starts in the big leagues, but note that he’s 1-1 with a 5.56 ERA in all “night” contests. I’ve seen enough from the veteran Lester to pretty much know we can depend on another solid outing from him here. Lester is throwing in a pitcher friendly park against a team which struggles with offensive consistency from game-to-game. The sample size is simply too small to get an accurate read on Kingham quite yet though. This line could easily be a lot larger in my opinion. Great value, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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05-29-18 | Astros v. Yankees +115 | 5-6 | Win | 115 | 21 h 24 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Yankees (7:05 EST). I think New York will bounce back here after yesterday’s 5-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Charlie Morton (7-0, 2.04 ERA) who gave up two earned runs off five hits while walking three over six innings in a victory over the Indians on Thursday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Morton obviously, as he leads the AL in wins right now and overall he’s been on complete fire. Regression though does seem imminent I believe and there’s no question that he’s facing a stiff task tonight against the Yanks’ power line-up. The home side counters with CC Sabathia (2-1, 3.55) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Rangers on Wednesday, allowing seven runs off six hits and three walks over 4.1 innings. Starts like that though have been few and far between for the resurgent veteran the last two years, so I’m not going to read too much into that one shaky outing. Note as well that Sabathia has to be feeling pretty confident that he can make an immediate bounce back here as he’s 1-0 with a 2.59 ERA at home thus far this season. I’ll point out as well that Houston is already just 1-4 (-3.6 units) this year on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while New York is 20-8 (+4.4 units) at home. I look for the revenge minded and hard-hitting home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Yanks. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-18 | Warriors v. Rockets +6.5 | Top | 101-92 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* WCF Game 7 WINNER is on the Houston Rockets (9:05 EST). I had a play on the Warriors in Game 6, but I think the Rockets will at the very least take Game 7 right down to the wire as these two hungry teams battle for a right to play for the NBA Championship. Whether Chris Paul plays or not, I think Houston has a legitimate shot at taking this one outright. So am I suggesting to “sprinkle a little on the money line?” I am in fact. However, the sharp play here is the points in my opinion. The Rockets will be doubling down defensively this evening as they look to duplicate their Game 4 and 5 success. The Warriors were able to take care of business on their own floor in Game 6, but Golden State has shown many “cracks in the armor” this season and everything points to another possible letdown here as well. Golden State is shooting 47.1 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including just 34.7 percent from range. Klay Thompson exploded for his best effort in the postseason in Game 6 with 35 points. Houston is averaging 43.8 percent in the postseason, including just 35 percent from long-distance. James Harden was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 32 points, seven boards and nine assists. I’ll point out though that from a trend based stand point, there’s no question that this one favors the home side, as note that Golden State is just 18-25 ATS this year after scoring 115 points or more, while Houston is 9-6 ATS this season after allowing 115 points or more. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the under Capitals/Knights (8:05 EST). The Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 12-6 with a 2.04 GAA in the playoffs this year, while the Golden Knights’ Marc-Andre Fleury is 12-3 with a 1.68 GAA. I base my selections on many different things. Sometimes it’s about scheduling, or revenge, or trends, or the overall situation etc. This one is based mainly on common sense. I think the long lay off between series will cause each of these high-powered teams to come out with some rust to open Game 1. And that’s all these World class goaltenders are going to need to turn this one into a classic “battle” in net. For the record, Washington enters averaging 3.47 goals and conceding 2.47 in the playoffs thus far, while Las Vegas is averaging just 2.87 goals and allowing 1.80 in the postseason. I’ll point out though that Washington has seen the total go under the number in five of its last seven after scoring four or more goals in its previous contest, while LV has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of eight when playing with three or more days of rest. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-18 | Phillies +120 v. Dodgers | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 16 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8:10 EST). I think Vince Velasquez and the Phillies have much more than just a “punchers chance” against the Dodgers on the road tonight. Velasquez (4-5, 4.18 ERA) gave up two runs (just one earned) off six hits while striking out nine over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Braves on Tuesday. Velasquez has been far from perfect this year, but he’s been solid enough and note that he does in fact rank eighth overall in the NL with 64 K’s thus far. Also note that he’s been solid in this spot all season with a 3.04 ERA on the road and a 3.44 ERA in all “night” games. The home side counters with Brock Stewart (0-0, 3.72) who gave up two runs off five hits and a walk while striking out one over four innings in a spot start on Tuesday against the Rockies. The decent performance earned Stewart another start in the rotation with Rich Hill still sidelined with injury. Clearly the book is still out on Brock though, as the sample size is clearly too small to this point. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is already 20-16 (+2 units) this season against right-handed starters, while LA is just 12-21 (-22.3 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-18 | Giants v. Rockies -121 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show |
This is a 10* Las Vegas Insider on the Colorado Rockies (7:10 EST). I had a 10* Las Vegas Insider release on the Rockies yesterday and they’d go on to smash the Reds easily. I believe that the home side offers great value in the opener of this three game series with the Giants as well. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Andrew Suarez (1-4, 5.68 ERA), who most recently was rocked for five runs off seven hits over four innings in a loss to Houston on Tuesday. Suarez would go on to throw just 37 of his 68 pitches for strikes and over his last three starts he’s now conceded 14 earned runs while walking five spanning 14 frames of work. Go to along with his poor ERA, Suarez is also allowing the opposition to hit a whopping .303 off him. Note that he’s been particularly horrible on the road as well by going just 1-2 with a 6.75 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Chad Bettis (4-1, 3.30) who gave up two runs off three hits and three walks while striking out four over five innings in a 5-3 loss to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Bettis sports decent numbers (39/22 K/W), and note that he’s 4-0 with a 3.40 ERA in all “night” contests so far this year. I’ll point out as well that San Francisco is just 15-17 (-1.8 units) in all night games this year, while Colorado is 21-14 (+7.7 units) in the same position. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-18 | Reds v. Diamondbacks -150 | 5-12 | Win | 100 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (4:10 EST). I think that this line could easily be a lot larger considering the talent discrepancy on the mound this afternoon. Both teams come in off losses, with the Reds falling in Colorado yesterday afternoon and the Diamondbacks falling at the A’s. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Homer Bailey (1-6, 6.21 ERA) who gave up four runs off ten hits with three walks over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Pirates on Wednesday. Bailey has been a disaster so far this season, sporting the ballooned ERA to go along with a poor 35/23 K/W over 58 innings of work. The home side counters with Matt Koch (2-3, 3.77) who gave up one run off three hits and three walks over 5.1 innings in a setback to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Koch retired his first 11 opponents and had a shutout going until the sixth frame. To go along with his solid ERA, Koch also sports a sharp 1.14 WHIP. I’ll point out additionally that Cincinnati is a poor 10-16 (-1.8 units) on the road this year, while Arizona is a decent 14-12 (+1.7 units) at home. After an unreal start to the season, the Diamondbacks have sure come back down to Earth of late. That said, Koch is the correct call here as I look for the hungry home side to find a way to get the job done once it’s all said and done. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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05-28-18 | Marlins -109 v. Padres | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 18 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Miami Marlins (4:10 EST). I think the hard-throwing Marlins’ southpaw starter offers great value in this pitcher friendly park this evening. Miami hands the ball to Caleb Smith (3-5, 3.83 ERA) who gave up one run while striking out eight over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Mets on Tuesday. To go along with his solid ERA, Smith also sports an elite 11.9 K/9. The home side counters with the volatile Eric Lauer (1-2, 6.67) who gave up one run off six hits while walking two over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. Starts like that have been few and far between for the rookie though (in fact it was likely the best outing of his career to this point) and I believe that immediate regression is imminent. Note that Lauer owns a poor 6.48 ERA at home this season. I think Smith has shown enough to trust that he’ll take full advantage of this opportunity. And as stated above, I’m not convinced at all that Lauer has turned any corners after one decent outing. All things considered, I do indeed believe that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Marlins. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-18 | Cavs +2.5 v. Celtics | Top | 87-79 | Win | 100 | 37 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* ECF GAME 7 WINNER is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). I played on the Cavs in their Game 5 loss in Boston and then I came back with them again in Game 6. While recent history would suggest that the Celtics should be the savvy call here (note that the home team has both won and covered in every game in this series thus far,) I’m expecting history to be re-written tonight, as LeBron James will look to cement his place as the greatest player in the history of the game. James was unstoppable in Game 6, posting 46 points, 11 rebounds and nine assists. Kevin Love was lost early in the first quarter, but it wouldn’t matter as James completely took over and the rest of his teammates provided the rest. The Celtics have been an unbelievable story to this point, advancing to Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals without Kyrie Irving or Gordon Hayward, arguably their best players. Boston’s future is clearly bright. But LBJ is all about making and breaking history and trends and I simply can’t see “The King” losing against these young Celtics. (additional supporting ATS trends to be added shortly) My hat goes off to the Celtics. Bravo. But sorry guys, you’re in the path of a true juggernaut, a machine which will settle for nothing less than a trip to the NBA Finals. Grab the points, play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-18 | Reds v. Rockies -147 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Colorado Rockies (3:10 EST). Ultimately I believe that German Marquez and the hard-hitting home side could easily be much larger favorites in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Harvey (1-2, 5.49 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits and two walks over six innings in a victory over the Pirates on Tuesday. Over three starts for the Reds Harvey has a 2.57 ERA and a solid 12/2 K/W. However in my opinion, regression seems imminent for the right-hander. Marquez (3-5, 4.62) most recently gave up one run off two hits and two walks with five K’s over seven innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Monday. Marquez has been significantly better on the road than at home, but his home park is the most difficult one to throw in in all the majors. Last year Marquez was 6-3 with a respectable 4.59 ERA at home and I think he’ll get back on track here. Additionally I’ll point out that Cincinnati is just 2-6 in its last eight after a victory in which it scored six or more runs in, while Colorado is 7-2 in its last nine after allowing six or more runs in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockies. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-18 | Cardinals -104 v. Pirates | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the St. Louis Cardinals (1:35 EST). I think the visitors will build off their 4-1 win yesterday afternoon. The Cards hand the ball to the red hot Miles Mikolas (6-0, 2.24 ERA), who comes in off a complete game shutout over the Royals on on Monday, allowing four hits and one walk to go along with nine K’s. Mikolas would throw 77 of his 109 pitches for strikes in the victory. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.90 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Jameson Taillon (2-4, 4.56) who gave up six runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out eight over six innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Tuesday. Taillon would allow a grand slam and it was his third home run given up over his last two games. While Taillon has been better at home than on the road, I think that recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that the home side hurler is in over his head here again. There’s no reason not to think that Mikolas can carry over his early season momentum for another start. I think this one highly favors the hard-hitting Cardinals. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -106 | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Detroit Tigers (1:10 EST). I had a play on the Tigers yesterday afternoon and while that selection came up short, I believe that everything points to an immediate bounce back on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile James Shields (1-4, 4.62 ERA) who gave up two runs off five hits over seven frames in a no-decision to the Baltimore on Tuesday. Shields has a decent 41/27 K/W over 62.1 innings, but note that he’s still just 1-2 with a ballooned 5.30 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Blaine Hardy (0-0, 3.46) who gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out four in a no-decision against Minnesota on Monday. Hardy only needed 77 pitches (53 of which went for strikes) to get through the five frames. Note that Hardy has a 4.15 ERA at home and a respectable 3.68 ERA in all “day” games. Additionally I’ll point out that Chicago is still just 5-17 (-11.5 units) in all “day” games this year, while Detroit is 14-11 (+6.5 units) in the same position. I’m banking on Hardy continuing his steady play and I look for the Tigers to find a way to avenge yesterday’s setback. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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05-27-18 | Orioles -104 v. Rays | 3-8 | Loss | -104 | 16 h 1 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:10 EST). I think Baltimore will bounce back here in the finale of this three-game set. The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.48 ERA) who went 6.1 scoreless while posting ten K’s and one walk in a victory over the White Sox on Tuesday. To go along with his solid 1.31 WHIP, Gausman now also sports a strong 58/15 K/W over 62 innings of work. And note that Gausman has been particularly effective on the road this season with a 2.90 ERA thus far. The home side counters with Sergio Romo (1-1, 4.66) who fell to these very Orioles on Friday, allowing one run off two hits over two-thirds of an inning. Romo has been splitting time between the rotation and bullpen, but note that he’s a horrible 0-1 with an 11.81 ERA at home this season. Romo’s upside is clearly large, but his game to game inconsistencies make him hard to trust. Gausman on the other hand has clearly “turned the corner” and there’s no reason at all not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry over that momentum here. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Orioles. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-18 | Rockets v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 86-115 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Golden State Warriors (9:05 EST). With Chris Paul out for the Rockets, I expect the desperate Warriors to put the foot on the gas from start to finish in Game 6 and to finish with a similar result as to their Game 3, 41-point beatdown victory. So far Houston is shooting 44.4 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including only 34.7 percent from range. Paul had 20 points, seven boards and six assists in the Game 5 victory before then aggravating his ham-string, forcing the dynamic point guard to have to miss this crucial contest. Eric Gordon was another bright spot with 24 points off the bench. Golden State is shooting 46.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs and only 34.1 percent from range. Kevin Durant had 29 points in the latest setback, while Stephen Curry added 22. I’ll point out though that Golden State is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off an upset loss as a favorite, while Houston is just 1-2 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog (and only 7-18 ATS in the same position over the last three seasons.) Houston has the momentum, but the loss of Paul is unbelievably significant. Golden State can smell the blood in the water and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a rout once the final horn sounds. Lay the points, play on the Warriors. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-18 | Giants +182 v. Cubs | 5-4 | Win | 182 | 24 h 51 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the San Francisco Giants (7:15 EST). We think the Giants offer great value in this spot to bounce back from yesterday’s loss as a big dog on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Stratton (5-3, 4.92 ERA) who gave up three runs over five innings in a victory over the Rockies on Saturday. Stratton has been decent overall this year, but note that he’s been at his absolute best on the road by posting a 3.60 ERA thus far, while also going a respectable 4-2 with a 3.89 ERA in all “night” contests. The home side counters with Jose Quintana (5-3, 4.47) who went seven scoreless against the anemic Reds on Saturday. Note though that it was the fourth time this season that the southpaw has walked four batters in a game. Also note that Quintana owns a poor 6.30 ERA at home so far this year. Additionally I’ll point out that San Francisco is 5-2 in its last seven night contests, while Chicago is just 2-6 in its last eight after scoring five or more runs in its previous outing. Quintana is getting much too much respect here in this particular matchup, which does indeed swing the value to the revenge minded visiting side. Play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-18 | Nationals -152 v. Marlins | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Washington Nationals (4:10 EST). Ultimately I think that Tanner Roark and the Nationals could easily be a lot bigger favs in this particular matchup. Roark (2-4, 3.39 ERA) comes in off a hard luck loss to the Dodgers on Saturday, giving up three runs with eight K’s over seven innings to go along with just a single walk. Roark has now gone seven innings in back-to-back starts, allowing four earned runs with one walk with 12 K’s in that span. The home side counters with the volatile Wei Yin Chen (1-2, 6.55) who gave up two runs off five hits with one walk over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Braves on Sunday. Starts like that have been few and far between for the 32 year old, who to go along with his ballooned ERA also sports a poor 1.64 WHIP over 22 innings of work, while opponents are hitting a disturbing .282 off him. I’ll point out as well that Washington is already 5-2 (+2.4 units) this year as a road fav in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is just 4-9 (-3.6 units) as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. As mentioned off the top, I do indeed feel that this line should be larger. Great price, play on the Nationals. Good luck…Larry |
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05-26-18 | White Sox v. Tigers -125 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -125 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Detroit Tigers (4:10 EST). I like the Tigers to build off their 5-4 win yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Hector Santiago (0-2, 5.17 ERA) who gave up three runs, off five hits and two walks with over six innings in a loss to the Orioles on Monday. Santiago was lucky that he wasn’t rocked for more, as every run was produced via the long-ball. The home side counters with Francisco Liriano (3-1, 3.42) who comes in off a gem against the Mariners on Sunday, allowing one hit over eight shutout frames of work while also striking out five in what turned out to be an unfortunate no-decision. Liriano’s 37/26 K/W is nothing to write home about this season, but he still comes into this one sporting a solid 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP over 52.2 innings of work. Note as well that Chicago is just 5-17 (-11.5 units) in all “day” games this year, while Detroit is 14-11 (+6.5 units) in the same position. I’m giving Liriano the big nod in this matchup and that makes the home side well worth the price of admission on Saturday afternoon. Play on Detroit. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-18 | Diamondbacks +129 v. A's | 7-1 | Win | 129 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:35 EST). I think we’re getting great value on the hungry Diamondbacks and the crafty southpaw Patrick Corbin in this interleague matchup. Corbin (4-1, 2.60 ERA) gave up two earned runs off four hits while striking out six and walking four over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Saturday. Corbin has been shaky of late, but I’m not going to over-react quite yet. This is the perfect opponent and ballpark to get untracked against/in and note that he’s already 2-1 with a 2.97 ERA in all night contests. The home side counters with Sean Manaea (5-4, 2.71 ERA) who gave up four runs over five innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Saturday, giving up five hits and three walks while striking out only two. Manaea threw a no-hitter earlier in the year, but since then he’s given up 15 runs over his last four starts. I think this one favors the hard-hitting visiting side and all things considered, I believe this is a “steal.” Play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -7 | Top | 99-109 | Win | 100 | 38 h 33 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). Most everyone that’s actually making a wager on the Cavaliers will be banking on the fact that the home side has completely dominated in every game of this series thus far. For whatever reason the Cavs’ role players and bench are unable to perform on the road, while it would seem none of the Celtics are able to perform at a high level and get over the hump away from friendly confines either. And I do indeed believe we’ll see this trend carry over again here. LeBron James was reportedly “dead tired” after Game 6, something that “The King” would take as an offense. James is arguably playing the best basketball of his entire 15 year career right now and I think he’s going to put on a classic performance in this one, attacking early and often and throughout. When they were up 2-0 and heading to Cleveland, it set up as a natural letdown spot for the Celtics in Game 3. And so too does it now in Game 6, as Boston will collectively have it in the back of its mind that it will still have one last chance to clinch the series in front of the home town crowd, a place which to this point in the playoffs has pretty much been “automatic” for it. I’ll point out as well that Boston is just 1-4 ATS in its last five road games overall, while Cleveland is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a road winning percentage of greater than .600. I base my picks on many different things. This particular one doesn’t have anything to do with individual player match ups. For all the reasons listed above though, lay the points with confidence. Play on the Cavaliers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-18 | Mets -126 v. Brewers | 3-4 | Loss | -126 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the New York Mets (8:10 EST). Ultimately I believe that this line could easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to Noah Syndergaard (4-1, 2.91 ERA) who gave up one run off six hits and one walk while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over Arizona on Sunday. Over ten starts so far this year, “Thor” has the 2.91 ERA to go along with an elite 1.19 WHIP and 68 K’s over 58.2 innings of work. And note that he’s been particularly effective in this spot all year by going 2-1 with a 3.52 ERA in all night gams and 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Junior Guerra (3-3, 2.98) who gave up one run off four hits with two walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision to the Twins on Sunday. Guerra quickly ran up his pitch count, throwing only 49 of his 91 pitches for a strike. Regression is imminent for Guerra, especially considering his poor 4.2 BB/9. I like Syndergaard to continue with his consistent play, and in my opinion everything does indeed point to a letdown here for Guerra. Great value, play on the Mets. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-18 | Astros v. Indians -141 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -141 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Indians (7:10 EST). I had a play on the Astros yesterday, but I think the home side will bounce back here with its ace on the mound. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (3-6, 3.43 ERA) who gave up four runs over five innings with six hits and two walks in a loss to these very Indians last Saturday. Keuchel for the most part has looked decent this year, but I just think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. The home side counters with Corey Kluber (7-2, 2.36) who was throwing opposite Keuchel last weekend, picking up the victory after allowing two runs while walking none and striking out ten over seven innings. So far the hard-throwing right-hander has 71 K’s over 72.1 innings of work. I think Kluber out duels Keuchel again here. Home field advantage simply cannot be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. Lay the price, play on the Indians. Good luck…Larry |
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05-25-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates -114 | 1-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors hand the ball to John Gant (1-1, 4.67 ERA) who is being pressed into a starters role out of necessity. Over his three starts this season Gant has a 6.52 ERA and 1.42 WHIP spanning 9.2 inning of work. The second one of the other starters comes off the IL/DL, Gant will be shipped back to Triple-A Memphis. The home side counters with Joe Musgrove (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his season debut tonight for the Pirates. Musgrove looked shaky at times over his rehab with Triple-A Indianapolis, but he’s been cleared to go this evening and I think it’s significant to note that he owned a respectable 3.87 ERA over 11 night contests while with the Astros last year. I’ll point out additionally that from a trend based stand point, this one definitely favors the home side, as note that the Cards are already a poor 5-10 (-6 units) on the road with a money line that’s set between the +125 to -125 range this season, while Pittsburgh is 7-3 (+3.9 units) at home with the same money line range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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05-24-18 | Warriors v. Rockets OVER 218.5 | Top | 94-98 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is the over Warriors/Rockets (9:05 EST). I had a play on Houston in Game 4. The Rockets put on one of the most impressive playoff defensive performances of all time in that one. However, I believe that Golden State is going to push the pace of this one in an attempt to wrench back control of this series after that humbling defeat at home. The Rockets are going to have to match pace. So far the Warriors are shooting 47.1 percent from the floor in the playoffs, while hitting only 33.8 percent from range. Stephen Curry was a bright spot in the Game 4 loss with 28 points, while Kevin Durant would add 27 points and 12 boards. The Rockets are hitting only 44.5 percent from the floor in the postseason, including just 35.1 percent from three-point land. James Harden had 30 points in the latest victory, while Chris Paul added 27. I’ll point out though that the Warriors have seen the total go over the number in 13 of 21 already this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while the Rockets have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last seven after allowing 95 points or less in their previous outing. These are two of the highest-scoring teams in the league, but each to this point has struggled to find its stroke in the playoffs. With so much on the line and with each side pushing from the opening tip until the final horn, I’m finally expecting these clubs to play to a higher-scoring shootout. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-24-18 | Astros -121 v. Indians | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Astros (6:10 EST). Mike Clevinger has been better than advertised for the Tribe this year, but the Astros’ Charlie Morton is performing at the highest level of his entire career and suffice it to say, I expect the veteran to carry that momentum over here. Morton (6-0, 1.94 ERA) most recently defeated the Indians on Friday, giving up one run off four hits with one walk and eight K’s over seven innings. Morton only needed 97 pitches to get through the seven frames and he improved his K/W to 70/18 in the process. Note that Morton has allowed more than three runs in a start just once all year. Also note that his 56.7 percent whiff-per-swing rate on his curveball is so far best in the league. Clevinger (3-1, 2.87) was throwing opposite Morton last week and he’d give up three runs off eight hits with four walks with six K’s over 6.1 innings. As stated off the top, Clevinger’s been one of the Indians’ best performers this season, but I think he’s once again in over his head here facing the red hot Morton. As good as Clevinger has been this year, I’m still giving Morton the big nod in this matchup and that’s going to be more than enough to tip the scales in favor of defending champs in my opinion. Great value, play on the Astros. Good luck…Larry |
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05-24-18 | Orioles -135 v. White Sox | 9-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Baltimore Orioles (2:10 EST). I think the Orioles respond after yesterday’s humbling 11-1 defeat. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Bundy (2-6, 4.70 ERA) who comes in off a loss to the Red Sox on Saturday, allowing four runs off five hits with eight K’s over six innings. Bundy’s been hurt by the long-ball this year, but he’s been at his absolute best in this situation all season, going 1-1 with a 0.70 ERA in all “day” games thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Lucas Giolito (3-4, 6.42) who gave up three runs off four hits with two walks over six innings in a victory over Texas on Saturday. Giolito earned the win despite throwing only 59 of his 102 pitches for strikes. Through four starts in May he has an unremarkable 4.91 ERA to go along with a poor 16/13 K/W over 22 innings. Note as well that Giolito has been at his absolute worst in front of the home town crowd this year with a 1-2, 10.19 ERA record. Both teams have been downright terrible for bettors this year, but I think Bundy gets back on track in this “day” contest, a place in which he’s performed very well in all season. Giolito earned a rare win last time out, but an immediate return to mediocrity is imminent in my opinion. Great price on the revenge-minded Orioles on Thursday afternoon. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics UNDER 206 | Top | 83-96 | Win | 100 | 25 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Situational Stunner is on the under Cavs/Celtics (8:35 EST). The first three games of this series went “under” the number, while Game 4 went “over.” For a number of different reasons I think that Game 5 will be a very defensive affair as each side desperately claws for the advantage. So far it would seem that the home floor advantage will be significant in this series. While that trend may or may not hold true in Game 5, I do definitely expect the home side to play with a renewed sense of urgency, especially on the defensive end of the floor. Cleveland is so far shooting 46.3 percent in the playoffs, including only 34.9 percent from range. LeBron James has been unstoppable after his Game 1 sub-par performance and he had 44 points in the latest victory. Kyle Korver added 14 of the bench. Boston is shooting 44.4 percent from the floor in the postseason, including 35.2 percent from range. Jaylen Brown was a bright spot in the latest setback with 25 points, while Terry Rozier added 16 points, six boards and 11 assists. I’ll point out as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight on the road, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of its last seven in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent. Clearly Boston is not going to be able to get into a “shootout” with “The King” and expect to win this contest, so with the home side indeed trying to control the pace of this one, I’m banking on this total staying well below the posted number. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-18 | Cavs v. Celtics | 83-96 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). So far it would seem that the home floor advantage will be significant in this series. While the trend has carried over through the first four games of this series, I do now finally expect “The King” and company to find a way to punch one into the win column in Game 5. Cleveland is so far shooting 46.3 percent in the playoffs, including only 34.9 percent from range. LeBron James has been unstoppable after his Game 1 sub-par performance and he had 44 points in the latest victory. Kyle Korver added 14 of the bench. Boston is shooting 44.4 percent from the floor in the postseason, including 35.2 percent from range. Jaylen Brown was a bright spot in the latest setback with 25 points, while Terry Rozier added 16 points, six boards and 11 assists. I’ll point out though that Cleveland is 9-6 ATS the last three years in the conference finals and 6-2 ATS in its last eight after scoring 110 points or more, while Boston is just 4-5 ATS the last three years in the conference finals and only 2-3 ATS in its last five after allowing 110 points or more. I think Cleveland’s role players finally show up on the road and I expect James to continue his historic push for another NBA Finals appearance. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-18 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Caps/Lightning (8:05 EST). Washington held on for a 3-0 win in Game 6. This has been a difficult series to predict, but with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line, I think each team plays it “cautious” in Game 7. Washington goes with Braden Holtby in net and he’s 11-6 with a 2.16 GAA thus far in the Playoffs, while Tampa goes with Andrei Vasilevskly, who is 11-5 with a 2.55 GAA in the postseason. Washington is 28-22 on the road overall this year, averaging 3.04 goals and conceding 3.10 in those contests. During the playoffs though the Capitals have been averaging 3.44 goals and allowing 2.61. Tampa Bay is 35-15 at home this season, averaging 3.48 goals and conceding 2.94. During the playoffs the Lightning are averaging 3.13 goals and allowing 2.75. These are two of the highest scoring teams in the league, but neither would have gotten this far without its respective goaltender. As stated off the top, I predict that each team comes out with a “cautious” approach, waiting for the other to make the first mistake. And in a scenario like that, I expect these competent netminders to be the main story lines in tomorrow’ summaries. Play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -140 | 4-0 | Loss | -140 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
My 8* Super Side is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (8:05 EST). Washington held on for a 3-0 win in Game 6. This has been a difficult series to predict, but with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final on the line, I think that Tampa uses the home ice advantage to its favor and finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Washington goes with Braden Holtby in net and he’s 11-6 with a 2.16 GAA thus far in the Playoffs, while Tampa goes with Andrei Vasilevskly, who is 11-5 with a 2.55 GAA in the postseason. Washington is 28-22 on the road overall this year, averaging 3.04 goals and conceding 3.10 in those contests. During the playoffs though the Capitals have been averaging 3.44 goals and allowing 2.61. Tampa Bay is 35-15 at home this season, averaging 3.48 goals and conceding 2.94. During the playoffs the Lightning are averaging 3.13 goals and allowing 2.75. It’s hard to say anything negative about either of these teams, but I will point out that the Lightning are a superb 15-6 (+6.5 units) this year following a loss by two goals or more in their previous game. Additionally I'll point out that the Capitals sit just one win away from their first trip to the Stanley Cup Finals since 1998 but the team owns a 4-11 record overall and a 1-3 mark on the road all-time in Game 7s. In contrast, the Lightning are 5-2 (3-0 at home) in deciding contests. All year long team’s play hard in the regular season in an attempt to gain “home ice advantage” throughout the Playoffs. I now believe that Tampa’s hard work pays off for it in this crucial situation. Lay the price, play on the Lightning. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-18 | Pirates -112 v. Reds | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:10 EST). Ultimately I feel that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Chad Kuhl (4-2, 4.53 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Padres on Thursday, allowing four runs off six hits while striking out five over 4.1 innings in a no-decision. Kuhl has been far from perfect this year, but he does sport a strong 47 K’s over 49.2 innings of work thus far. The home side counters with the volatile Homer Bailey (1-6, 6.11) who was rocked for six runs off ten hits with five walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Bailey has been a disaster across the board this year and it’s hard to imagine the veteran staying in the Reds’ rotation much longer. I think Kuhl bounces back here and easily out duels his counterpart. Great price, play on the Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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05-23-18 | Diamondbacks v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | 2-9 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 46 m | Show | |
My 8* O/U Daytime Dominator is on the under D-Backs/Brewers (1:10 EST). I think these two competent hurlers battle into the latter frames and as a result, I look for this total to sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Zack Godley (4-3, 3.78 ERA) who most recently allowed three runs (just one earned) off four hits with six K’s over six innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. So far the hard-throwing right-hander has 49 K’s over 52.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Brent Suter (3-3, 4.72) who remains in the rotation because of injury. In his last outing Suter gave up one run off five hits and a walk with six K’s over 5.2 innings in a victory over Minnesota on Friday. I’ll point out as well that Arizona has seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 “day” games already this year, while Milwaukee has seen the total dip below the posted number in a whopping 12 of 14 day contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-18 | Mariners v. A's -149 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -149 | 26 h 28 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Oakland Athletics (10:05 EST). Ultimately I believe that this line could easily be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Mike Leake (4-3, 6.00 ERA) who most recently gave up six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a fortunate no-decision against Texas on Tuesday. It was the third straight start in which Leake had been blasted for five or more earned runs and he now owns a poor .301 opponent batting average to go along with a 1.53 WHIP. The home side counters with Trevor Cahill (1-2, 2.79) who gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to Boston on Wednesday. Cahill though was able to produce 11 ground balls and he’s still to allow more than three earned runs in any of his five starts. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two pitchers suggests that Cahill has another productive evening in front of hime, while Leake is going to be given “the hook” early. Great value, play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-18 | Rockets +9 v. Warriors | Top | 95-92 | Win | 100 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (9:05 EST). Golden State took Game 1, but Houston answered in Game 2 with a resounding victory. The Rockets though were once again grounded in Game 3, looking more like a deer caught in the headlights than a basketball team. But with that awkward contest out of the way, I believe the “real” Rockets show up for Game 4 as they try to avoid the dreaded 3-1 hole. Houston took two of three games in the regular season series from the Warriors, including the teams’ respective very first contests of the year (in Golden State.) The Warriors’ played much more aggressively in Game 3 and they were able to slow down the Rockets’ role players. But Houston is very well coached and I expect it to make the necessary adjustments to keep Game 4 much more competitive. It’s safe to say that Houston will be pushing the pace of this one in an attempt to combat Golden State’s more aggressive style. I think it’ll be successful in doing just that. Boston looked unstoppable over the first two games of its series at home, before then coming out and laying an egg in Game 3 in Cleveland and there’s no question that there are parallels between the East/West Conference Finals. As mentioned above, the playoffs are all about “adjustments” and there’s no reason not to think that the West leading Rockets won’t be able to come up with a much more effective game-plan in this one. And I’m absolutely banking on that happening. Outright victory? It’s possible. But in a contest which I envision being decided late, in extra time, or by whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I’m grabbing as many points as I can. Play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-18 | Orioles -128 v. White Sox | 2-3 | Loss | -128 | 25 h 34 m | Show | |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (8:10 EST). I think the oddsmakers are slow in recognizing the improvement in one of these two starters. The visitors hand the ball to Kevin Gausman (3-3, 3.88 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Thursday, allowing six runs off eight hits over 4.2 innings, while also striking out six. The moral of the story on this one though is to not overreact. This was the first time that Gausman had allowed more than three runs and he’d posted a quality start in five of his previous six trips to the hill. Note that Gausman has been particularly effective in all “night” games as well with a respectable 3.38 ERA. The home side counters with the volatile James Shields (1-4, 4.88) who comes in off a rare strong outing, giving up one earned run off three hits and three walks while striking out eight over 7.1 innings in what turned out to be a frustrating no-decision against the Rangers on Thursday. Shields looked good in that start, but I’m not reading too much into one decent outing. Shields is a confirmed “gas can,” and he is 0-2 with a 4.66 ERA at home. I’m banking on Gausman getting back on track as there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to make an immediate recovery based upon his recent overall performance. And everything definitely points to an immediate letdown from Shields after a rare strong performance. Great value, play on Baltimore. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-18 | Angels v. Blue Jays +102 | 3-5 | Win | 102 | 24 h 31 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Garrett Richards (4-2, 3.47 ERA) who gave up two runs off four hits and a walk with four K’s over seven frames in a loss to the Astros on Wednesday. Richards has been sharp of late and overall this year and it’s hard to say anything negative about the hard-throwing right-hander. The home side counters with JA Happ (5-3, 4.15) who comes in off a gem against the Mets on Wednesday, allowing two hits over seven scoreless while striking out ten. These pitchers are very evenly matched, but Happ’s superior WHIP (1.13 compared to 1.42 for Richards), combined with the home field advantage factor proves to the be the difference in the end. Great value, play on Toronto. Good luck…Larry |
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05-22-18 | Braves v. Phillies -120 | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 EST). I think the books are slow in recognizing how well Vince Velasquez is performing right now and ultimately I believe this line should in fact be a lot larger. The visitors hand the ball to Brandon McCarthy (4-2, 5.05 ERA) who gave up one run off five hits and two walks over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Cubs on Wednesday. Over his previous two starts though McCarthy had been blasted for 14 runs off 23 hits over just 8.1 innings. Note that he’s been particularly poor in all “night” contests as well, going 2-2 with a 6.30 ERA. Velasquez (4-4, 4.37) comes in off a strong outing against the hard-hitting Cardinals on Thursday, allowing five hits and striking out five over 6.1 scoreless frames of work to record a victory. Velasquez got off to a horrible start to the 2018 campaign, but he now comes in having posted back-to-back quality outings, walking just three in that span. I’ll point out as well that Atlanta is just 4-7 (-4.3 units) in its last 11 “night” contests, while Philadelphia is a strong 17-11 (+4.9 units) in all night contests this season. Great value, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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05-21-18 | Lightning v. Capitals -120 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 38 m | Show |
This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Washington Capitals. I played Washington in Game 5 and it came up short. The Capitals’ backs are now against the wall though, as Game 6 becomes their most important contest in franchise history. Washington roared out to a 2-0 series lead, winning both games in Tampa, before the Lightning bounced back by taking the next three. Caps’ goaltender Braden Holtby looked fantastic over the first two games, but the Bolts’ Andrei Vasilevskly has stolen the show over the last three. I said before this series started that I thought whichever team’s goaltender played better would come out on top. While Holtby has struggled over his last three, I think he’s poised to get back on track here in this crucial situation. All of the pressure is on Tampa Bay now to try and close this series and while it did succeed in the Nation’s capital in Game’s 3 and 4, I think the stage is finally set for letdown. I’l point out as well that Tampa is just 2-4 in its last six after three or more victories, while Washington is 5-2 in its last seven after three straight losses. These teams are very evenly matched, but the intensity in which the home side plays with will be the difference. All things considered, I do indeed feel that this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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05-21-18 | Diamondbacks -112 v. Brewers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -112 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
This is a 10* PERFECT STORM on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:40 EST). I like Zack Greinke to outduel his counterpart today. Greinke (3-2, 3.46 ERA) comes in off a no-decision vs. these very Brewers on Tuesday, giving up one run off four hits and a walk while striking out five over six innings. Greinke comes in on top form as he’s posted a 1.45 ERA and a 16/2 K/W over 18.2 innings, spanning three starts in May. After a rocky start to the season, Greinke is back on track and also owns a sharp 9.5 K/9. The home side counters with Chase Anderson (3-3, 3.97) who comes off the DL after battling a ten-day illness. Previous to that Anderson had been rocked for five earned runs off five hits while walking two and striking out three over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Pirates. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Greinke has another productive evening in front of him, while Anderson is likely going to need a start or two to get back into the “swing of things.” It’s a great situational play, combined with great overall value. Play on Arizona. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-18 | Rockets v. Warriors OVER 226 | Top | 85-126 | Loss | -105 | 63 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Rockets/Warriors (8:05 EST). This series is all tied up at 1 game apiece after the Rockets claimed a 127-105 victory in Game 2. It’ll be the exact same game-plan for Houston in Game 3 as what it deployed in Game 2, as the Rockets would get out and push the pace from the very first tip. So far Houston is averaging 45.3 percent from the floor, including 35.6 percent from range in the playoffs. However in Game 2 the Rockets shot 51.1 percent from the field, while hitting 16 of 42 three point attempts. James Harden and Eric Gordon each had 27 points, while PJ Tucker added 22 in the dominant victory. Golden State is hitting 47.3 percent from the floor, including 33.2 percent from range in the postseason. The Warriors would go on to shoot 45.9 percent in the Game 2 loss, including converting just 9 of 30 from behind the 3-point line. Kevin Durant led the way in the losing cause with 38 points, while Stephen Curry added just 16. (additional supporting O/U ATS stats/trends added shortly) Golden State is going to benefit from the three days off of rest, while also being able to play this important contest in front of the home town crowd. But the last thing the Rockets can do is take the foot off the gas either. With each side pushing the pace, look for this total to fly over the number sooner, rather than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-18 | Indians v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 37 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the under Indians/Astros (8:05 EST). After yesterday’s higher-scoring 5-4 Indians win, I’m expecting more of a “pitchers duel” in the finale of this series. The tribe hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (5-2, 3.66 ERA) who most recently gave up three runs off six hits with four K’s over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Tigers on Monday. Despite the setback, it was Carrasco’s second straight quality start and his sixth in nine trips to the hill this year. The home side counters with Lance McCullers (5-2, 3.63) who comes in off an unfortunate loss as well, giving up two runs off four hits and two walks with six K’s over six innings against the Angels on Monday. McCullers has now posted five quality starts out of his past six trips to the mound. So far over 52 innings of work, the hard-throwing right-hander has 58 K’s. I think it’s worth to note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go under the number in six of its last eight “night” games, while Houston has seen the total dip below the posted number in 22 of 29 night contests already this year. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-18 | Golden Knights v. Jets -133 | 2-1 | Loss | -133 | 20 h 11 m | Show | |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on the Winnipeg Jets (3:05 EST). I’ve played on Winnipeg in Game 4 and it would come up short again in the 3-2 setback. It’s the biggest game of the year for the Jets in Game 5 though (down 3-1 to Las Vegas) and suffice it to say, I expect them to step up in this spot and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Winnipeg has run into an incredibly hot goaltender in Marc-Andre Fleury. Connor Hellebuyck has struggled at times in net for the Jets in this series, but I think he’ll come up big here in this “must win” scenario. The Jets looked great in Game 1, storming out to an early 3-0 lead, before then holding on for the 4-2 victory. Since then though it’s been all Las Vegas, which continues to adapt its style of play throughout the playoffs. Clearly Winnipeg is going to have to bring the same intensity that it had in Game 1 to tonight’s contest as well. No one is more surprised than I am with how well the Knights have done this year, but can anyone out there say “letdown spot?!” If ever Las Vegas was going to have a mental lapse, then this is it. Vegas doesn’t have many negative stats to report, so I’m not going to bother. I will however point out that the Jets are a perfect 2-0 (+2 units) this year after three or more consecutive SU losses. The Golden Knights can return to home ice to wrap this series up in Game 6 and I think the knowledge of that fact does in turn finally lead to a letdown in Game 5. The stage is set for a big time blowout for the home side, so lay the price with confidence. Play on Winnipeg. Good luck…Larry |
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05-20-18 | Cubs -149 v. Reds | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 43 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Cubs (1:10 EST). Yu Darvish (0-3, 5.56 ERA) had his last outing cut short due to cramping. Before leaving he’d allow one run off three hits with two walks and five K’s over four innings against the Braves. It was Darvish’s best start for his new team, as he’d induce ten swings and misses on just 36 strikes. Darvish looks poised to continue his progression as the hard-throwing right-hander looks to post his first victory for Chicago. The home side counters with the volatile Tyler Mahle (3-5, 4.34) who was sick for a few days leading up to his latest start against San Francisco on Tuesday, where he’d then give up four runs off seven hits over just 3.1 innings of work in the loss. Mahle’s strike out rates are impressive, but he’s already been rocked for ten home runs in the early going. I think it’s important to note as well that Chicago is 6-3 (+1.1 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Cincinnati is a poor 6-14 (-7.6 units) against teams with winning records. I like Darvish to finally punch one into the win column in this favorable matchup. Lay the price, play on the Cubs. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs OVER 205 | Top | 86-116 | Loss | -105 | 75 h 47 m | Show |
My 10* EAST-CONF FINALS TOTAL OF THE YEAR is the over Celtics/Cavaliers (8:35 EST). So far LeBron James has more points, assists, steals, blocks and every other stat in this series than the rest of his other starting teammates combined. If Cleveland has any shot at making it back into this series, “The King” is going to need a couple of his guys to “step up” in Game 3. So far I’ve played Cleveland over the first two games of this series, and I’m obviously 0-2. However, with Cleveland's backs against the wall I do now definitely feel that the Cavs will answer the bell with their best overall effort yet. Boston has been playing unbelievably and no one is more surprised than myself by its performance. But with the home side looking to push the pace of Game 3 from start to finish, the Celtics are going to be forced to match that effort. The C’s would outscore the Cavs 36-22 in the third quarter in Game 2. So far, Boston is shooting 45 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including 35.8 percent in the series. Jaylen Brown had 23 points and seven boards in the latest victory, Terry Rozier added 18 points and big man Al Horford continued to be a difference maker as well with 15 points and 10 boards. Six different Boston players scored in double figures in Game 2 James exploded for 42 points, 10 boards and 12 assists in the Game 2 setback and there’s no question that James will be expecting his teammates to step up and respond in kind in Game 3 (note: Kevin Love added 22 points and 15 boards. It’s interesting to note that LeBron James is 6-0 when down 2-0 in the Eastern Conference Finals throughout his career. I think the shift in venue is the difference maker as far as the total is concerned tonight, as all signs point to a shootout between these two hungry teams. However, the Cavs are a dreadful 14-32-1 ATS at home this year (regular and post season). In conclusion, no way the Cavs go quietly here. The team's guard trio of Hill (3 of 8 / 1-4 on threes), Korver (4 of 11 / 2 of 7) and Smith (2 of 16 / 0 of 7) can't possibly be this bad again at home. The Cavs are an 'ugly' 14 of 57 on threes (24.6%) as a team this series, after shooting 37.2 percent during the regular season. The Cavs have struggled ATS at home but have averaged 110.3 PPG all season on their homecourt. After averaging a pathetic 88.5 PPG in losing Games 1 and 2, anyone really think the Cavs won't 'light up the scoreboard' in this one? Of course, considering the Cavs are allowing 108.8 PPG at home, one can see why their ATS mark is so poor. However, that means the "average" final score of a Cleveland home game is 219.1 PPG or about two 'TDs' higher than this total! Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-18 | Celtics v. Cavs -6 | 86-116 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). LeBron James is 6-0 in the East Finals when down 2-0 throughout his 15 years in the NBA. So James has more points, assists, steals, blocks and every other stat in this series than the rest of his other starting teammates combined. If Cleveland has any shot at making it back into this series, “The King” is going to need a couple of his guys to “step up” in Game 3. I’ve played Cleveland over the first two games of this series, and I’m obviously 0-2. However, with Cleveland's backs against the wall I do now definitely feel that the Cavs will answer the bell with their best overall effort yet. Boston has been playing unbelievably and no one is more surprised than myself by its performance. But Game 3 sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Celtics if I’ve ever seen it. So far, Boston is shooting 45 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including 35.8 percent in the series. Jaylen Brown had 23 points and seven boards in the latest victory, Terry Rozier added 18 points and big man Al Horford continued to be a difference maker as well with 15 points and 10 boards. Six different Boston players scored in double figures in Game 2 James exploded for 42 points, 10 boards and 12 assists in the Game 2 setback and there’s no question that James will be expecting his teammates to step up and respond in kind in Game 3 (note: Kevin Love added 22 points and 15 boards.) Note as well that Boston is a poor 11-17 ATS in its last 28 after playing three consecutive home games, while Cleveland is 6-2 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back ATS losses to the same team. There’s no way that the Cavs go down without a fight. This one has blowout written all over it. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-18 | Diamondbacks -120 v. Mets | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -120 | 24 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (7:10 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (4-1, 2.53 ERA) who comes in off his first loss of the year, allowing four runs off six hits and a walk along with eight K’s to Milwaukee on Monday. Corbin has been better than expected overall this year though and there’s no reason not to think that the southpaw won’t be able to bounce back here and improve upon his already impressive 2-1, 2.90 ERA in all “night” games to this point. The home side counters with the volatile Stephen Matz (1-3, 3.86) who gave up one run off five hits and four walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Phillies on Friday. The leftie threw just 54 of his 95 pitches for strikes and he walked more batters than he struck out. Note that so far Matz is just 1-2 with a 4.18 ERA in all night games and only 1-2 with a 4.66 ERA at home. Additionally I’ll point out that Arizona is 60-46 (+15.2 units) against left-handed starters the last two seasons, while New York is just 40-47 (-8.4 units) in the same position and time span. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-18 | Capitals +155 v. Lightning | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Washington Capitals (7:15 EST). So far the visiting team is 4-0 in this series and I fully expect that trend to carry over here. The pressure is now on Washington to respond after wasting its 2-0 series lead with back-to-back losses at home. A date on the road is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked for the Capitals though, as so far they’re 7-1 in the playoffs away from friendly confines. I said before this series started that whichever team’s goaltender plays better would most likely be the difference and so far that’s been the case over the first four games. The Capitals’ Braden Holtby (10-5, 2.24 GAA) looked much better in Game’s 1 and 2, while the Lightning’s Andrei Vasilevskly (10-4, 2.63) looked fantastic in the Nation’s capital in Game’s 3 and 4. Overall Washington comes into this one averaging 3.56 goals in the playoffs, while conceding 2.75. Tampa is averaging 3.36 goals in the postseason and conceding 2.69. Both teams have responded well in this spot for bettors all year long, but the double revenge factor of losing back-to-back games, combined with the other extremely strong trends I’ve listed above, make the Capitals just too good to turn down in this “plus-money” spot. Great value, play on Washington. Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-18 | Yankees v. Royals +233 | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 38 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Kansas City Royals (7:15 EST). I think it’s a great time to pull the trigger against the over-priced Yanks. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino (6-1, 2.14 ERA) who comes in off a win against the A’s on Sunday, allowing one earned run off five hits over six innings. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Severino, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that regression is imminent at some point for the hard-throwing right-hander and as mentioned off the top, I think he’s over-valued in this one. The home side counters with Danny Duffy (1-5, 6.51) who will be eager to get back on track after a humbling start in which he was rocked for nine earned runs off eight hits over 3.1 innings against the hard-hitting Indians on Sunday. Duffy has struggled with game-to-game consistency (it was his fourth start in which he’s conceded at least fives earned runs), however he does have a pair of starts in which he’s held his opposition to one earned run or fewer. And note that despite his struggles this year, Duffy is still a decent 1-0 with a 3.97 ERA in all “night” games. I think the conditions are right for the upset. Grab the Royals on Saturday night! Good luck…Larry |
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05-19-18 | Rockies v. Giants -103 | 4-9 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the San Francisco Giants (4:05 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Jon Gray (4-5, 4.85 ERA) who was rocked for six earned runs off ten hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Sunday. Coors Field is the great equalizer for pitchers and while Gray once again fell victim to the altitude, I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-4 with a 5.37 ERA in all “night” games this season. The home side counters with Chris Stratton (4-3, 4.88) who picked up a win in his last outing despite not being at his best, giving up four runs off nine hits and two walks while striking out one over five innings against the Reds on Monday. Stratton has struggled of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still a sharp 4-2 with a respectable 3.89 ERA in all night contests this year. Additionally I’ll point out that Colorado is just 6-9 (-2.3 units) this season in all day games, while San Francisco is 6-3 (+3.4 units) in its last nine day contests. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Giants. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-18 | Rockies v. Giants -105 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 12 m | Show |
The third 9* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the San Francisco Giants (10:15 EST). I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Kyle Freeland (3-4, 3.42 ERA) who gave up four hits and four walks over 6.1 scoreless frames over Milwaukee on Saturday. After a slow start Freeland has been sharp of late, but if he’s had one clear weakness it’s been his play on the road where he’s just 1-3 with a poor 4.82 ERA. The home side counters with Derek Holland (2-4, 4.79) who comes in off a gem against the Pirates on Sunday, going 6.1 scoreless innings, allowing four hits and striking out seven. While his ERA isn’t anything to write home about, his 1.8 HR/9 remains very respectable. I thin Holland carries over his momentum here and I expect Freeland to take another step back on the road, a place where he’s consistently struggled. Great value, play on San Francisco. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-18 | Phillies +108 v. Cardinals | 4-12 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 42 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Philadelphia Phillies (8:15 EST). I had a play on Philadelphia in its slight upset over the Cards on Thursday and suffice it to say, I think the visitors carry that momentum over onto Friday. The Phillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta (3-1, 2.59 ERA) who went 7.1 scoreless innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Mets on Friday, allowing five hits while also striking out five. To go along with his repeatable 2.59 ERA, Arrieta also owns a sharp 1.06 WHIP and 0.4 HR/9. The home side counters with Michael Wacha (4-1, 3.09) who comes in off a no-decision himself, giving up one run over six innings against the Padres on Saturday. Wacha has so far been excellent this year and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about the hard-throwing right-hander, but I’ll point out that the Cards have really struggled in this spot by going just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring two runs or fewer in its previous contest. I like Arrieta to easily match pace with Wacha and in a scenario like that, I believe the value swings to the underdog. Great value, play on the Phillies. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-18 | Jets +107 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Winnipeg Jets (8:05 EST). Winnipeg took Game 1 by a score of 4-2, but the Knights have stormed back to take the next two in the series. Down 2-1 and looking to avoid the dreaded 1-3 hole, I believe Winnipeg comes out and finds a way to get the job done in this crucial Game 4. So far the Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck is 9-6 with a 2.34 GAA in the playoffs, while the Knights Marc-Andre Fleury is 10-3 with a 1.70 GAA. Winnipeg is averaging 3.33 goals in the playoffs and conceding 2.47. Mark Scheifele was a bright spot in the latest setback with both goals and he now has 14 in the postseason, leading all scorers. Las Vegas is averaging 2.92 goals in the playoffs and conceding 1.85. Jonathan Marchessault had two goals in the latest victory. From a trend based stand point, I think this one highly favors the desperate Jets though, as note that Winnipeg is 23-8 in its last 31 after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest. Winnipeg is also 20-7 in its last 27 games overall and during that stretch it hasn’t lost three in a row. I believe this strong trend carries over here. These teams are very evenly matched on paper, but as mentioned off the top, everything points to the “hungrier” side delivering the goods at the end of the night. Great value, play on the Jets. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-18 | Padres v. Pirates -124 | 3-2 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 2 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Pittsburgh Pirates (7:05 EST). I think the Pirates will build off their come from behind 5-4 win last night over the toothless Friars. The visitors hand the ball to Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.40 ERA) who gave up one run off three hits over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against the Cardinals on Saturday. In his previous outing though Ross would get rocked for five runs against Washington. For the most part Ross has been solid this season, but note that he was 0-2 with an 8.87 ERA on the road last year. The home side counters with Ivan Nova (2-3, 5.01) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Giants on Sunday, allowing four runs off eight hits over 5.2 innings. Nova has struggled of late, but note that he was 8-2 with a 2.80 ERA at home last season. I’m not overreacting to one decent outing from Ross, or from a poor stretch from Nova, who has both the track record and pedigree to make an immediate return to form in front of the home town crowd. Play on the surging Pirates. Good luck…Larry |
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05-18-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -127 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -127 | 21 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). After their 10-5 loss yesterday, I think the Jays bounce back in fine fashion here. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson (0-2, 8.16 ERA) who most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits while walking two in a loss to the Yanks on Sunday. After a great debut, Anderson has now posted back-to-back clunkers, allowing 11 earned runs off 18 hits spanning eight innings of work. Anderson now owns the uninspiring 8.16 ERA to go along with a dismal 2.02 WHIP over 14.1 innings thus far. The home side counters with Marco Estrada (2-3, 5.32) who gave up four runs off seven hits and one walk with five K’s over six innings in a loss to the hard-hitting Red Sox on Saturday. Estrada went six scoreless in in his previous outing and while he’ll most likely never regain his 2015 form for Toronto, there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back in friendly confines with a better effort this evening (note that Estrada was 6-3 with a 3.98 ERA at home last season.) Additionally I’ll point out that Oakland is just 1-5 in its last six after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing. All things considered, I feel this line could in fact easily be a lot larger. Play on the Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-18 | Lightning v. Capitals OVER 6 | Top | 4-2 | Push | 0 | 26 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the over Lightning/Capitals. Tampa has made this a series after its 4-2 Game 3 victory. The Lightning though can ill afford to take the foot off the gas, as a loss would drop them to 3-1 in the series, a hole likely too deep to dig out of. Washington is going to have to match pace with its hungry counterpart tonight as it looks to regain the offensive form which saw it total nine goals over the first two games on the road. These are two of the best netminders in the league going head-to-head, but everything points to a wide-open “goal-fest” in my opinion. So far the Lightnings’ Andrei Vasilevskly is 9-4 with a 2.68 GAA in the postseason, while the Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 10-4 with a 2.18 GAA. Tampa is 29-17 on the road overall this year, averaging 3.53 goals and conceding 2.74 in those contests. Washington is 31-17 at home overall this season, averaging 3.35 goals and conceding 2.63 in those games. I’ll point out as well that Tampa has already seen the total go over the number in 23 of 38 this year after a victory by two goals or more, while the Caps have seen the total eclipse the posted number in five of their last seven after a loss by two goals or more. With each team pushing from start to finish, expect this one to soar over the total sooner than later. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-18 | Phillies +118 v. Cardinals | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Philadelphia Phillies (7:15 EST). I believe that Vince Velasquez has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup, which swings the value in favor of the underdog in my opinion. Velasquez (3-4, 5.05 ERA) comes in off a strong outing against the Giants on Thursday, giving up three runs off five hits and a walk while striking out 12 over six innings. That’s now back-to-back winning efforts for Velazquez and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t be able to carry that momentum over here. The home side counters with the volatile Luke Weaver (3-2, 4.91) who comes in off a strong outing against the Padres on Friday, giving up no runs off five hits over five innings in the eventual victory. Previous to that though Weaver had been rocked for 18 earned runs over four combined starts. Suffice it to say, I’m not reading too much into one decent outing by Weaver. I like Velasquez to out duel his counterpart and I look for the Phillies to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Great value on this matchup. Good luck…Larry |
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05-17-18 | A's v. Blue Jays -116 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -116 | 25 h 34 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Toronto Blue Jays (7:05 EST). I like the Jays to build off their 12-1 win yesterday. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Triggs (3-1, 5.31 ERA) who most recently was rocked for six runs off six hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Yanks Saturday. Triggs has been “hit or miss” this year and he currently owns a ballooned 5.26 ERA on the road thus far. The home side counters with Aaron Sanchez (2-3, 4.08) who struck out four and gave up three runs off five hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Reds on Friday. Sanchez has looked better of late and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over here. I think it’s interesting to note as well that the Jays are 6-2 in their last eight after scoring ten or more runs in their previous outing. Toronto takes advantage of familiar surroundings in this matchup. Great price, play on the Jays. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-18 | Jets +129 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 48 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Winnipeg Jets (9:05 EST). This series is all tied up 1-1. Winnipeg won Game 1 by a score of 4-2, before Las Vegas bounced back with the 3-1 victory in Game 2. For a number of different reasons though, I like the Jets to respond on the road in Game 3. Winnipeg sends Connor Hellebuyck to the net and he’s so far 9-5 with a 2.29 GAA, while Vegas counters with Marc-Andre Fleury, who is 9-3 with a 1.68 GAA thus far. Winnipeg is averaging 3.43 goals in the postseason and conceding 2.36. Las Vegas is averaging 2.83 goals in the playoffs and conceding 1.83. I’ll point out though that Winnipeg is 32-13 (+17.9 units) in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent this season. The Jets have in fact struggled at home of late, but they’ve done extremely well on the road, allowing a total of nine goals over their last five away from friendly confines. Las Vegas continues to struggle with offensive consistency in the postseason and I think that comes back to haunt it here against this revenge-minded Jets side. Great value, play on Winnipeg. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 105-127 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (9:05 EST). I had a play on the Rockets in Game 1 and while the selection came up short in the end, I believe that Houston will rally and find a way to bounce back in Game 2. Note that Houston did take two of three between the clubs in the regular season. So far Golden State is shooting 47.4 percent from the floor in the playoffs this year, including just 33.5 percent from range. Kevin Durant came up big in the Game 1 victory with 37 points, while Klay Thompson would add 28. Draymond Green had just five points, but he posted nine boards, nine assists, two steals and two blocks. The Rockets are hitting 44.7 percent from the floor, including 35.3 percent from range. James Harden was a bright spot in a losing cause last time out with 41 points and seven assists, while Chris Paul would add 23 points and 11 boards. I’ll point out though that Golden State is still just 6-19-1 ATS in its last 26 following a SU victory over more than ten points, while Houston is 5-1 ATS in its last six after allowing 100 or more points in its previous outing. This is one of the biggest games in franchise history and I expect Houston to respond in a big way. Everything points to a blowout here, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
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05-16-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -105 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Daytime Dominator is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (3:40 EST). Ultimately I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Brandon Woodruff (1-0, 8.03 ERA), who was rocked for seven runs over three innings at Coors Field on Friday. Woodruff is being called into service out of necessity with both Zach Davies and Chase Anderson sidelined with injury/illness. The home side counters with Matt Koch (2-1, 2.43) who comes in off an unfortunate loss against the Nationals on Friday, as he’d give up three earned runs and strike out three over eight innings in the eventual 3-1 setback. Koch has been as solid as the Diamondbacks could have hoped for as he’s yet to go less than five innings or give up more than three earned runs in any of his five starts this year. To go along with his sparkling ERA, Koch also owns an elite 0.99 WHIP. While regression seems imminent, I still give Koch the big nod on the mound in this particular matchup. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching, and when trying to properly assess a starting hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Koch is getting little respect from the oddsmakers this afternoon. Great value, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-18 | Cavs +1 v. Celtics | Top | 94-107 | Loss | -108 | 35 h 8 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (8:35 EST). LBJ entered Game 1 of the Eastern Conference LBJ seeking his eighth straight trip to the NBA Finals, after the Cavs swept the Raptors for a second straight postseason. "The King" dominated in Cleveland first two series, averaging 34.3 points, 9.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists, while nailing a pair of buzzer-beaters to boot. Giving him some important cover in the Toronto series was the team's second-best player, Kevin Love. After averaging 10.9 points on 31.9 percent shooting in his first eight contests this postseason, Love scored at least 21 points in each of the final three games of that series, averaging 25.0 & 11.0 in those three. Love averaged 22.6 points and 12.4 rebounds in last season's conference finals against Boston, adding to Cleveland's confidence. heading into this series. What's more, Cleveland's supporting cast, a three-guard lineup featuring Hill, Korber and Smith, looked very mediocre against the Pacers but looked ready for primetime vs. the Raptors. So what happened in Game 1? LBJ played his worst game of the 2018 playoffs, scoring just 15 points on 5 of 16 shooting (0-5 on threes). Also, Love resorted to his early playoff form, making just 5 of 14 shots with 17 points. As for that three-guard lineup of Hill, Korver and Smith, that trio shot 6 of 19 from the floor while combining for a total of only 14 points. The Cavs shot just 36.0 per overall, including a just brutal 4 of 26 (15.4%) on threes. Meanwhile, the Celtics connected on 51.2% as a team, with a trio of players (Brown, Morris and Horford) scoring 20-plus points. Knowing that the Celtics are 37-0 all-time when taking a 2-0 series lead, it may be more than fair to call Game 2 a "must-win" for the Cavs. Cleveland won three games at Boston by an average of 30 points in last season's conference finals plus has gone 9-3 at Boston the last four regular seasons. With so much on the line, I expect “The King” to bounce back with another signature effort. Play on Cleveland. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-18 | Lightning +107 v. Capitals | Top | 4-2 | Win | 107 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (8:05 EST). I had a play on the under in Game 1 and then came back with the Lightning in Game 2. So far I’m 0-2 in the Eastern Conference Finals, but I’m expecting to get back into the winners circle tonight with the desperate Lightning. Washington won Game 2 by a score of 6-2. Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is now 8-4 with a 2.74 GAA, while the Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 10-3 with a 2.04 GAA. Vasilevskly has struggled against the Capitals in this series, but coming in he was the entire reason why Tampa advanced to this round so quickly. I think he’ll bounce back here though with his strongest effort so far. Tampa’s offense will also looked to get untracked. The Lightning have managed just two goals thus far, but they still enter averaging 3.25 goals per game, while conceding 2.92. Washington is averaging 3.79 goals in the postseason and conceding 2.57. It’s hard to say anything negative about the Capitals obviously, as they’re likely playing the best hockey of the remaining clubs right now. However, I simply feel that this does indeed set up as a classic “letdown” spot finally. And conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the Bolts as they look to avoid the dreaded 0-3 hole. Note as well that Tampa is 14-6 (+5.5 units) this year after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest this season. In my opinion, this is indeed the very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Lightning. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-18 | Cubs v. Braves +117 | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 47 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Atlanta Braves (7:35 EST). One of these starters has been terrible this year, and the other has been very solid. In my opinion, this line is way out of whack. The visitors hand the ball to Yu Darvish (0-3, 6.00 ERA) who comes off the DL after suffering flu like symptoms. In his previous outing in Colorado Darvish was shelled for five earned runs off seven hits and three home runs over 4.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Mike Foltynewicz (3-2, 3.21) who comes in off a gem against Miami on Thursday, allowing one run off three hits while striking out four over five innings in the eventual victory. He hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been solid overall this year as evidenced by his .86 HR/9 and 47/19 K/W over 42 innings of work. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by these two starters suggests that Darvish is severely over-valued in this particular matchup. Great value, play on the Braves. Good luck…Larry |
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05-15-18 | A's v. Red Sox UNDER 9.5 | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 22 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the under A’s/Red Sox (7:10 EST). I think these two competent pitchers will battle into the latter frames. The visitors hand the ball to Daniel Mengden (2-4, 4.06 ERA) who comes in off an unfortunate loss to the Astros on Wednesday, giving up two runs off six hits while striking out four over 6.2 innings. Mengden has now given up two or fewer runs with either one or zero walks in four of his last five trips to the mound. Note that he also owns an elite 33/5 K/W on the season. The home side counters with Eduardo Rodriguez (3-0, 4.58) who comes in off a gem against the hard-hitting Yanks on Thursday, allowing only one hit and striking out eight over five innings. After back-to-back duds, Rodriguez got back on track in a big way in this one. Note that the hard-throwing southpaw already has 47 K’s over his 37.1 innings of work. I’ll point out as well that Oakland has already seen the total go under the number in eight of 13 this year against lefties, while Boston has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 “night” games. For all the reasons listed above, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-18 | Brewers v. Diamondbacks -147 | 7-2 | Loss | -147 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the Arizona Diamondbacks (9:40 EST). Ultimately I think that this is a much bigger mismatch on the mound than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. The visitors hand the ball to Junior Guerra (2-3, 3.09 ERA) who struck out nine against the Indians on Wednesday, but who also allowed four runs off six hits over five innings in the eventual setback. Guerra has been decent this season, but note that last year he was a poor 1-3 with a 6.68 ERA on the road. Suffice it to say, regression seems imminent in this tough atmosphere. The home side counters with Patrick Corbin (4-0, 2.12), who has been razor sharp of late, posting a 1.64 ERA, 1.09 with and 12 K’s over his last 11 frames of work. Corbin has to be feeling pretty confident here as well, as note that he is a spectacular 4-0 with a 1.32 ERA at home thus far. I think Guerra is getting too much respect in this matchup. Corbin comes in confident and I believe he’ll easily get the better of his opponent tonight. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-18 | Warriors v. Rockets -1 | Top | 119-106 | Loss | -105 | 99 h 53 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Houston Rockets (9:00 EST). Simply put, I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this one (in Game 1 anyways!) Golden State knocked out both the Spurs and Pelicans in five games, while Houston would get past both the Wolves and Jazz in five as well. Note that the Rockets would take two of three in the regular season. Golden State is shooting 46.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs this year, including only 32.9 percent from range. Stephen Curry had 28 points, seven boards and eight assists in the Game 5 win over New Orleans. Houston is hitting 44.6 percent from the floor in the postseason, including 35.3 percent form range. Chris Paul had 41 points, seven boards and ten assists in the Game 5 victory over Utah. Both teams are healthy, but Paul, James Harden and the Rockets have been waiting all season for this moment and I believe they’ll ride the incredible wave of emotion to a solid victory in Game 1. Lay the points, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-18 | Golden Knights +135 v. Jets | Top | 3-1 | Win | 135 | 24 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Las Vegas Golden Knights (8:05 EST). I pushed with the “under” in Game 1. Las Vegas got steamrolled in the first period, quickly finding itself down in a 3-0 hole. The Golden Knights would actually control the play of Game 1 after that, but it wasn’t enough in the eventual 4-2 setback. But Las Vegas has been incredibly resilient this year and I think the Golden Knights are going to bounce back in fine fashion tonight. The visitors send back Marc-Andre Fleury between the pipes and he’s 8-3 with a 1.74 GAA in the postseason thus far, while the Jets’ Connor Hellebuyck is 9-4 with a 2.23 GAA. Vegas comes into this one averaging 2.82 goals in the playoffs, while conceding just 1.91. A bounce back is imminent for Fleury and gang tonight in my opinion. The Jets are averaging 3.62 goals in the playoffs and conceding 2.31. I’ll point out though that Las Vegas is 15-5 (+7.4 units) this year in revenging a loss against an opponent, and 16-9 (+4.9 units) after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest. After getting caught off guard in Game 1, I think the Knights bounce back and take command in Game 2. Great value, play on Las Vegas. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-18 | Mariners v. Twins -113 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -113 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Minnesota Twins (7:10 EST). Mariners slugger Robinson Cano will be out after getting injured in Detroit over the weekend. The visitors hand the ballot Wade LeBlanc (0-0, 3.18 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Jays on Wednesday. So far LeBlanc has looked decent as a starter in place of the injured Erasmo Ramirez, but regression is imminent in my opinion. Note that LeBlanc was an unimpressive 0-2 with a 5.04 ERA on the road for the Pirates last year. The home side counters with Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 3.83) who struck out three and gave up one earned run off two hits over five innings in a victory over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Odorizzi sports solid numbers coming into this one, a 1.32 WHIP and a 38/20 K/W over 42.1 innings of work. Note as well that the hard-throwing right-hander has been at his best at home so far this year by going 2-1 with a 3.18 ERA. I’m banking on Odorizzi outlasting his over-achieving counterpart and for the Twins to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Minnesota. Good luck…Larry |
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05-14-18 | A's +140 v. Red Sox | 6-5 | Win | 140 | 24 h 45 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on the Oakland Athletics (7:10 EST). I think that Sean Manaea has much more than just a “punchers chance” in this particular matchup. Manaea (4-4, 2.11 ERA) gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out three and walking zero over six innings in a loss to Houston on Tuesday. Since throwing the first no-hitter of the season against the Red Sox, Manaea has now given up four runs in back-to-back starts. No need to panic though in my opinion. Manaea owns a .170 opponent batting average as well as a 0.72 WHIP, to go along with an elite 45/7 K/W over 55.1 innings of work. The home side counters with Rick Porcello (5-0, 2.79) who was most recently blasted for five runs off eight hits and three walks over five innings in a fortunate no-decision against the Yanks on Wednesday. Porcello struggled with his command, throwing only 51 of his 91 pitches for strikes. Recent form is often the best indicator we have in properly assessing a starting pitcher and in this case, everything points to further regression for Porcello in my opinion. The value is simply too great to turn down. Play on the A’s. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-18 | Capitals v. Lightning -190 | 6-2 | Loss | -190 | 25 h 14 m | Show | |
My 6* PERFECT STORM is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (8:05 EST). I had a play on the “under” in Game 1 and that would end up becoming a “push.” Washington accomplished what it set out to do, earning at least the split to open the Eastern Conference Finals, but suffice it to say, I’m expecting the home side to respond here after “laying an egg” in the first one. Here is a snippet of my analysis from the Game 1 selection: Each teams possesses unbelievable offensive depth, experience and talent. But the reason these two clubs are where they are right now is because of their goaltending to this point. The Capitals’ Braden Holtby is 8-3 with a 2.04 GAA and he easily outplayed his counterpart in Matt Murray last time out. The Lightnings’ Andrei Vasilevskly is 8-2 with a 2.20 GAA and he’d also be the difference maker in the last round, getting the better of Bruins’ veteran Tuukka Rask. Nothing’s changed from Game 1 to Game 2 for the most part, but I’ll point out that the Lightning are 14-5 (+7.4 units) this season already after a loss by two goals or more. I think Vasilevskly bounces back after his shaky Game 1 performance and I expect the hungry home side to put the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the price, play on the Lightning. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-18 | Reds v. Dodgers -147 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -147 | 21 h 35 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the LA Dodgers (4:10 EST). I think that Rich Hill is not getting nearly enough respect in this particular matchup. The soft-hitting visiting side sends Luis Castillo (2-4, 6.47 ERA) to the mound and he most recently gave up two runs over 5.2 innings in a victory over the Mets on Tuesday. Castillo has looked better of late after a disastrous start to 2018, but I’m not convinced that the volatile southpaw has turned the corner yet. Note that Castillo is still only 1-2 with a 7.23 ERA on the road this year. The home side counters with Hill (1-1, 7.11), who comes in off an outing to forget against the league leading Diamondbacks on Tuesday, giving up five runs and striking out five over four innings in what would turn out to be a fortunate no-decision. Hill has the track record (12-8 with a 3.32 ERA and 1.09 WHIP last season, including going 7-5 with a 2.77 ERA at home) and pedigree to turn things around and that’s exactly what I’m expecting the veteran to accomplish here. I’m banking on Hill bouncing back and as mentioned off the top, everything points to Castillo coming back down to Earth after his recent overachieving stretch. Lay the price, play on the Dodgers. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-18 | Cavs -1 v. Celtics | Top | 83-108 | Loss | -105 | 70 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Cleveland Cavaliers (3:30 EST). Cleveland has advanced by dispatching the Pacers in seven games, while then going on to sweep No. 1 seed Toronto in four straight. Boston got to this point by defeating Milwaukee in seven and then Philadelphia in five. Note that the Cavs took two of three in the regular season. Cleveland smashed Toronto 128-93 in Game 4 and I think it carries that confidence and momentum over here. It’s interesting to note that Celtics’ big man Al Horford, who to this point has been a difference maker for his team, is just 1-15 lifetime against LeBron James’ led teams in the postseason. After struggling in the first round, the Cavs’ bench players and other starters looked “in sync” against the Raptors and there’s no reason not to think that that chemistry won’t also be carried over here. Chemistry is what the Celtics are all about, as this is a team that is playing and winning right now without its legitimate super star in Kyrie Irving. Like Cleveland though, Boston has struggled at times in the playoffs on the offensive end, so far shooting 44.6 percent from the floor and 36 percent from range. Horford, Jaylen Brown, Terry Rozier and Jayson Tatum have played “above” their heads to this point and I think they’ll finally stumble against a rejuvenated “King” and company (at least in Game 1 anyways!) I will be the first to admit that I have been very surprised at how well the Celtics have played to this point, but until they can prove to me that they can slow down James, who enters on perhaps the biggest/strongest run of his career, the correct call in this one is on Cleveland. Good luck..Larry |
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05-13-18 | Rays v. Orioles +101 | 1-17 | Win | 101 | 18 h 31 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Baltimore Orioles (1:05 EST). The visitors hand the ball to Blake Snell (4-2, 2.40 ERA) who would give up one run off four hits and two walks over 6.1 innings in a loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Snell has been fantastic over his last six starts, posting a 43/9 K/W, but regression does seem imminent here. Snell was 5-7 with a 4.04 ERA last year, including going just 2-4 with a pedestrian 4.76 ERA on the road. The home side counters with Dylan Bundy (1-5, 5.31) who comes in off an outing to forget against the Royals on Tuesday, allowing seven runs off five hits in the eventual 15-7 setback. After a great start to the season, Bundy has stumbled over his last three starts, allowing 19 earned runs. Bundy though was 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, including 7-5 with a 3.99 ERA at home. The moral of the story of this particular selection is to not overreact. Snell has been great, but he’s in unchartered territory right now as far as his performance is concerned and I’m simply unconvinced that he’s reached the next level. As stated above, regression is poised to rear its ugly head for the southpaw in my opinion. Bundy on the other hand will be more focused than he’s ever been in his career. Bundy had a 1.04 WHIP over his first three starts this season and I think he’ll begin his journey back to respectability this afternoon. Play on the hard-hitting home side. Good luck…Larry |
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05-13-18 | Red Sox -122 v. Blue Jays | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on the Boston Red Sox (1:05 EST). While he’s struggle this season, I still think Drew Pomeranz is under-valued in this particular matchup. Pomeranz (1-1, 5.23 ERA) comes in off his best start of the year, giving up two earned runs off four hits and two walks over six innings while posting six K’s in an unfortunate no-decision against the Yanks on Tuesday. Pomeranz was 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA last year, including 7-3 with a 3.19 ERA on the road. All signs point to the hard-throwing southpaw to continue his progression this afternoon. The home side counters with the volatile Joe Biagini (0-1, 8.10) who has been recalled from Triple-A to make this start in place of the injured Marcus Stroman. Over ten big league innings this season Biagini has the 8.10 ERA to go along with a 2.00 WHIP and 8/4 K/W. I think Pomeranz builds off his last performance and I expect him to easily out duel his confirmed “gas can” counterpart. This line is way out of whack in my opinion. Play on Boston. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-18 | Cardinals -117 v. Padres | 1-2 | Loss | -117 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
My 9* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Cardinals (8:40 EST). I think Michael Wacha and the hard-hitting visiting side are the correct call in this particular matchup. Wacha (4-1, 3.35 ERA) most recently allowed two runs (just one earned) off six hits with five K’s over 5.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Sunday. To go along with his decent 3.34 ERA, Wacha has so far also posted a career-best 78.4 precent strand rate. Note that he’s 3-0 with a 2.57 ERA in all “night” games thus far. The home side counters with Tyson Ross (2-3, 3.67) who was shelled for five runs off six hits and three walks over six innings in a loss to the Nationals on Monday. Of the six hits Ross gave up, four were for extra bases, including a pair of dingers. Overall Ross has been solid this year, but note that he was just 3-3 with a 6.75 ERA in all night games last season. For the most part MLB handicapping comes down to the starting pitching and when trying to properly assess a hurler, often “recent form” is the best indicator we have in doing that. Recent form displayed by Wacha suggests that he’s in line for a very productive evening here. I think Ross gets the hook early and I expect the Cards to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on St. Louis. Good luck…Larry |
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05-12-18 | Mariners v. Tigers +120 | 9-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* Daytime Dominator is on the Detroit Tigers in Game 2 of the double header. Note that the game time on this one has been switched to 7:40, but we’re still calling this one a DAYTIME DOMINATOR. Both of these starting pitchers have looked pretty good at times this season and rather poor in others, however I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Felix Hernandez (4-3, 5.28 ERA) who gave up five runs off seven hits and four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to LA on Sunday. Hernandez came into that dud on a solid run, having given up three runs or fewer over five straight contests, but once again the wheels would fall off the bus in this outing (note that Hernandez owns a poor 6.86 ERA on the road this year.) The home side counters with Michael Fulmer (1-2, 3.51) who gave up five runs off four hits and three walks while also striking out seven over six innings in a no-decision against the Rangers on Monday. Note that Fulmer has been much better at home (2.14 ERA) this season, than on the road (4.95). I have a hard time seeing “The King” just flipping a switch here and suddenly improving his performance on the road. Fulmer has been far from perfect, but he’s consistently been at his best throughout his career when throwing in front of the home town crowd. I expect these strong trends to continue here and all things considered, I do indeed believe that this is very definition of “great line value.” Play on the Tigers. Good luck…Larry |
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