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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC -3 | Top | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 127 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* PAC-12 GAME OF THE MONTH is on USC (8:00 EST). The 9-3 Stanford Cardinal are ready to duke it out with the 10-2 USC Trojans on Friday night for the SEC title. If recent history is any precedence, then USC has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met back in early September, it was the Trojans that pulled away for the easy 42-24 victory. Stanford comes in off two straight wins, most recently handling Notre Dame last week. QB KJ Costello had 1,169 passing yards and a 9/2 TD/INT ratio this season. The Cardinal offense though revolves around the run led by Bryce Love, who has posted over 100 yards in all but one game this year. Stanford also has a strong defense which concedes just 20 PPG. That defense though could not contain the high-flying Trojans in September, allowing 623 total yards. USC allows 26 PPG and it’s been better against the run than the pass. QB Sam Darnold had 3,462 passing yards and a 24/12 TD/INT ratio this year. Overall the offense is ranked 18th in the country by averaging 489 yards per contest. I’ll point out as well that Stanford is 0-5 ATS this year following an ATS victory, while the Trojans are interestingly 5-1 ATS in their last six after allowing less than 100 rushing yards in their previous game. Darnold torched the Cardinal for four TD’s and the Trojans piled on over 620 yards of offense in the first game. I have a hard time seeing Stanford slowing down Darnold again. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-17 | Davidson v. North Carolina -10 | Top | 75-85 | Push | 0 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on North Carolina (8:00 EST). The 6-1 North Carolina Tar Heels get ready to battle the 3-2 Davidson Wildcats in non-conference action this evening and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors UNC. UNC comes in off an 86-71 home win over Michigan on Wednesday, while Davidson beat Charlotte 85-70 on Tuesday. Note that when these teams played last year, it was UNC that held on for the 83-74 victory. The Tar Heels got destroyed by Michigan State, only to then bounce back with a convincing victory over the Wolverines. Luke Maye had 27 points and six obards. UNC comes into this one averaging 85 PPG, while conceding 71.7. Davidson comes in averaging 86.6 PPG, while conceding 74.4. The Wildcats broke a two-game slide with the win over Charlotte, shooting 51 percent from the floor. Kellan Grady had 22 points to lead all scorers. I’ll point out though that Davidson is just 10-15 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog and only 9-15 ATS in its last 24 non-conference games, while North Carolina is 4-2 ATS in non-conference games already this season and 4-1 ATS when playing the role of favorite. I think UNC’s depth and superior defense proves to be too much for Davidson. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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12-01-17 | Senators v. Islanders -140 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -140 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM on the New York Islanders (7:05 EST). These two teams are moving in opposite directions. The Senators are going to be desperate here, but that doesn’t necessarily mean they have the advantage. In fact, Ottawa is struggling in all facets of the game, having lost seven straight, most recently a heartbreaking 2-1 loss to Montreal. New York though is surging in the other direction (most recently a 5-2 spanking of Vancouver) and I think it could easily be a much larger fav than what it is in this situation. The Sens average 2.91 GPG and concede 3.13. Goaltender Craig Anderson has struggled so far this season, he’s 7-11 with a 2.95 GAA, including 3-3 with a 2.49 GAA on the road. The Isles own the league’s No. 1 offense at 3.67 GPG. At home they average 4.60 GPG. Overall on the year New York concedes 3.13 GPG. Goaltender Thomas Greiss is 8-4 with a 3.34 GAA and he’s always done well against the Senators, sporting a 3-1, 2.71 GAA lifetime record vs. them. I’ll point out that Ottawa is 0-6 in its last six after scoring two goals or less in its previous contest, while New York is 19-7 in its last 26 against teams with a winning percentage below .400. Greiss is the correct call here. Anderson is struggling and that doesn’t bode well facing the league’s No. 1 offense that comes into this one on top form. As stated off the top, this line could/should easily be a lot larger. Play on the Islanders. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-17 | Pacific v. UC Riverside +1.5 | Top | 57-55 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Cal Riverside (10:00 EST). The 3-4 Pacific Tigers get ready to battle the 2-3 UC Riverside Highlanders and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Cal Riverside. The Highlanders are the “hungrier” team in my opinion, as they’ve lost three of their last four. The Tigers look poised for a letdown in my opinion. After an 0-3 start, Pacific has won three of its last four. So far the Tigers average 75.9 PPG and concede 74.7. Last time out Pacific socred the 80-58 win over Canisius, with five players in double figures. Cal Riverside opened the year with an impressive win over Cal, but it’s since lost three of four. Most recenly the Highlanders fell 87-42 to Michigan. It was a tough matchup obviously. So far the Highlanders average 67.4 PPG, while conceding 76. I’ll point out though that Pacific is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten after allowing 60 points or less in its prevoius outing and just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after scoring 80 points or more, while UC Riverside is 3-1 ATS in its last four after failing to score 50 or more points in its previous contest. As I stated off the top, I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on UC Riverside. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-17 | Maple Leafs v. Oilers -106 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -106 | 29 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Edmonton Oilers (9:05 EST). Toronto has been better than Edmonton this year. The Leafs though have lost three of their last five. The Oilers have been a big disappoinment overall this season, but they’ve looked a lot better of late, wining three of their last four. The Leafs are in Vancouver on Saturday night, while the Oilers travel to Calgary on Saturday. Clearly these teams are very evenly matched. Edmonton has under-performed big time to this point, while Toronto has likely exceeded expectations. The Leafs are now stumbling, while the Oilers seem to be on the rise. Despite Edmonton starting its backup goaltender tonight, I’m still calling the netminders a “wash” in this one. I simply feel that the Oilers are the much “hungrier” team. Expectations were sky high coming into the season and there’s no way the team can be satisfied with a couple of recent wins under its belt. I like Edmonton to risk life and limb tonight as it sends a message to Eastern Canada. Play on the Oilers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-17 | Redskins v. Cowboys -122 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 60 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Dallas Cowboys (8:25 EST). The 5-6 Washington Redskins are in Dallas to take on the 5-6 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Dallas lost to LA 28-6 on Thanksgiving, while the Redskins struggled in a 20-10 winning effort over the lowly Giants last Thursday. Washignton QB Kirk Cousins was 19 of 31 for 242 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Cousins has been consistent this year, so far with 3,038 yards, 19 TD’s and six INT’s. The Skins rank in the middle of the pack on both sides of the ball this season. Dallas QB Dak Prescott has struggled without sidekick RB Ezekiel Elliot. Last week he was 20 of 27 for 179 yards and two INT’s. Prescott on the year though still has 2,318 yards, 16 TD’s and nine picks. Like their counterpart today, the Cowboys rank in the middle of the pack this season on both offense and defense. I’ll point out though that Washington is already just 1-2 ATS this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent (fell 33-19 at home in the first matchup with the Cowboys,) while Dallas is still 5-3 ATS this year as a fav and 2-1 ATS againt the division (Redskins are just 1-3 ATS against the division.) I like Prescott to put together his biggest game of the year and for the desperate home side to find a way to stop the slide. Play on the Cowboys. Good luck…Larry |
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11-30-17 | Cavs v. Hawks OVER 215.5 | Top | 121-114 | Win | 100 | 28 h 42 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Oddsmaker’s Error is on the over Cavaliers/Hawks (7:35 EST). The Cavs come in as the hottest team in the league off nine straight victories, most recently torching the Heat 107-96 at home on Tuesday. The Hawks come in at the other end of the spectrum as they lost for the fourth time in their last five games in a humbling 112-78 home loss to the Raptors on Saturday. Cleveland is out for revenge today though after the Hawks pulled off the improbable 117-115 road win in the first matchup back on November 5th. The Cavs come in ranked third in the league with an average of 110.8 PPG, while ranked 27th in scoring defense by allowing 108.5. LeBron James averages 28.2 points, 8.2 boards and 8.3 assists. Atlanta averages 102.2 PPG and concedes 108.2. Dennis Schroder leads the nightly charge with 19.7 points, plust 6.8 assists per game (Hawks are interestingly ranked fifth in the league in three point shooting percentage and 38.2 percent.) I’ll point out that Cleveland has already seen the total go over the number in eight of ten this year in trying to revenge a loss against an opponent, while Atlanta has seen the total go over the number in six of its last ten after scoring 85 points or less in its previous outing. For all the reasons listed above, play on the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-17 | Boston College +3 v. Nebraska | 62-71 | Loss | -105 | 29 h 14 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Tirple Play is on Boston College (9:15 EST). The 5-2 Boston College Eagles are in Nebraska to take on the 5-2 Cornhuskers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Eagles. BC averages 77.7 PPG thus far. The Eagles will be looking to bounce back big here though after being held to just 66 points in a loss to Providence last time out. Deontae Hawkins and Ky Bowan each had 19 points, while Jerome Robinson chipped in 12. Overall BC has been sharp defensively (other than the loss to the Friars), allowing just 67.3 PPG. Nebaska looks primed for a letdown here in my opinion after two straight wins. And with games upcoming against four ranked opponents, including No. 2 Kansas and No. 3 Michigan State, it’s not too hard to imagine the home side in some small way, getting caught looking ahead. The Huskers most recently beat LBSU 85-80, led by 26 points from Glynn Watson Jr. I think BC is the more complete team. Look for the Eagles to find a way to get the job done and bounce back from the dud against Providence. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-17 | Miami-FL +4.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 86-81 | Win | 100 | 29 h 14 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Miami Florida (9:15 EST). Miami comes in off an 86-65 home win over North Florida on Saturday to remain unbeaten, while Minnesota most recently held on for an 89-84 win over Alabama in the final game of the Barclays Center Classic on Saturday. Miami averages 79.8 PPG and allows just 54 (ranked third.) In the most recent win over North Florida the Hurricanes got 14 off the bench from both Bruce Brown Jr. and Anthony Lawrence II. Minnesota averages 90.7 PPG and allows 69.7. In their most recent victory, Nate Mason had 20 points. These are two evenly matched teams with contrasting styles, but note that Miami is 4-2 ATS in its last six after a non-conference game, while Minnesota is just 7-9 ATS in its last 16 after allowing 80 points or more. I think the Hurricanes’ strong defensive play keeps the team competitive. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-17 | Grizzlies +7 v. Spurs | Top | 95-104 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 36 m | Show |
This is a 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER on the Memphis Grizzlies (8:35 EST). We don’t have to question the Grizzlies effort today as the team comes to town off eight straight losses. Memphis fired head coach David Fizdale because of it and suffice it to say, I expect the Grizzlies to come in extrenely focused here. Most recently Memphis fell 98-88 to Brooklyn on Sunday. Marc Gasol had 18 points, before getting benched for the entire fourth quarter by Fizdale, an unpopular move which triggered his release in the end. San Antonio would love nothing more than to kick this Grizzlies team while its down. The Spurs come in off a 115-108 win over Dallas, led by big man LaMarcus Aldridge with 33 points and ten boards. Tony Parker returned in that one as well for San Antonio. The Spurs are also expected to welcome back leader Kawhi Leonard this week. Everything is going right in San Antonio these days, while Memphis has more questions than answers. But “motivation” can be a difficult factor for oddsmakers to properly quantify into a line and that’s the case here in my opinion. This is the opening game of a home and home set between the clubs. I think the desperate Grizzlies will at the very least keep this one respectable until the final moments. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-17 | Long Beach State v. Arizona -23.5 | 56-91 | Win | 100 | 28 h 60 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Arizona (8:00 EST). LBSU comes in off a loss against Nebraska, while Arizona will be desperate here as it enters off three straight setbacks. The 49ers gave the Huskers a run for their money, but eventually fell 85-80 in their latest action. Gabe Levin led the way with 22 points and 16 boards. Arizona looked horrible in the Battle 4 Atlantis tournament, dropping all three games (NC State, SMU and Purdue.) The Boilermakers whipped it 89-64 in its most recent action. Deandre Ayton was a bright spot with 22 points and eight boards. But I think home cooking is just what the doctor ordrered for the Wildcats today. Arizona has major issues on both ends of the floor, but I think its safe to say that it’s not as bad as what its recent tournament performance would suggest either. And note, LBSU is already a poor 1-2 ATS this year after allowing 80 points or more (it’s just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a road dog of 12.5 points or more as well), while Arizona is 4-1 ATS in its last five after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive games. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-29-17 | Senators v. Canadiens -130 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 28 h 33 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on the Montreal Canadiens (7:35 EST). Ottawa enters off a 2-1 home loss to the Islanders, while the Canadiens come in off a 3-1 home victory over the Blue Jackets. The Sens will be desperate here, they’ve lost six straight. So far Ottawa averages 3.00 GPG and concedes 3.18. Goaltender Craig Anderson has had an uncharacteristically difficult time to open the season, he’s now 7-11 with a 2.95 GAA (note that he’s 10-14 with a 3.28 GAA.) In most cases, I’d likely even back the desperate visiting side today, but the Canadiens could care less about the Senators problems. No team in the NHL struggled more than Montreal over the first month and a half. The Habs though come in off back-to-back victories, beating Buffalo 3-0 before then slowing down a red hot Blue Jackets team with a 3-1 win. Goaltender Carey Price returned from injury in the victory over the Sabres and continued that momentum against Columbus. I expect the all star to once again carry that dominance over into this one against the struggling Senators. I’ll point out that as well that Ottawa is just 1-5 in its last six when its opponent allows two goals or less in its previous game, while Montreal is now 6-2 ATS in its last eight against the Eastern Conference. I think Price turns out to be the difference today (note that he’s 20-12 with a 2.37 GAA lifetime against Ottawa). Lay the price on Price! Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-17 | Bucks -7 v. Kings | Top | 112-87 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on the Milwaukee Bucks (10:05 EST). I base my selections on many different things. Common sense is a good thing to use in handicapping and that’s the approach I’m taking with this selection. Both Kevin Durant and Stephen Curry sat out in the Warriors 110-106 home loss to Sacramento. The Kings clearly have to be feeling great after that victory over the defending champs and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a massive letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back. Conversely, after a four-game win streak, the Bucks come to town having dropped three of their last four, including a humbling 121-108 setback at Utah in their latest action. I’ll point out as well that the Bucks are 2-1 ATS already this year off an upset loss as a favorite, while Sacramento is just 1-6 ATS in non-conference games. For all the reasons listed above, play on Milwaukee. Good luck…Larry |
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11-28-17 | Stars -112 v. Golden Knights | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 29 h 22 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKERS ERROR is on the Dallas Stars (10:00 EST). The 12-10-1 Dallas Stars are in Vegas to take on the 15-6-1 Golden Knights on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Dallas allows 2.9 GPG and scores 2.9 as well, placing it in the middle of the pack on both ends of the ice. The Stars come in off a 6-4 home win over the Flames and have now won three of their last four games. Vegas concedes 3.00 GPG and averages 3.7. The Golden Knights have won four in a row and five of their last six, but note that Vegas is already just 1-2 in its last three after three-game or longer unbeaten streak. I like Dallas in this spot as it looks to avenge a 2-1 setback to the Knights back on October 6th. Play on the Stars. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-17 | Lakers +6 v. Clippers | 115-120 | Win | 100 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmakers Error is on the LA Lakers (10:30 EST). The Lakers come in off a loss to the Kings, while the Clippers come in off a win against Sacramento. The Lakers lost 113-102 to the Kings last time out. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope had 20 points, while Kyle Kuzma added 17 points. Rookie Lonzo Ball had a big game with 11 points, 11 assists and seven boards. The Clippers beat the kings 97-95, but it wasn’t pretty. Blake Griffin led the way with 33 points and hit the game winning 3-pointer with 3.2 seconds left. This one sets up great for the Lakers from a trend based stand point though, as note that they’re 4-2 ATS in their last six off an upset loss as a favorite, while the Clippers have struggled in this position by going just 1-2 ATS this season after playing three consecutive road games. Off back-to-back road victories to end their trip, I think the Clippers have a predictable letdown here. Whle I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset obviously, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lakers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-17 | Texans v. Ravens UNDER 38 | 16-23 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 10 m | Show | |
My 8* SUPER TOTAL is the under Texans/Ravens (8:30 EST). The 4-6 Houston Texans are in Baltimore to take on the 5-5 Ravens and for a number of different reasons, I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. Both teams are hungry for a win to stay in the hunt for the AFC wild card. Baltimore comes in off an impressive 23-0 win over Green Bay on the road, while Houston also comes in off a victory, breaking a three-game slide with a 31-21 win over the Cardinals at home. Tom Savage played well in Arizona last week, going 22 of 32 for 230 yards, two TD’s and a pick. Houston averages 350 YPG and allows 344.8. Baltimore ranks sith in total yards given up per game with just 306, including second in passing yards allowed with just 185.2. Last week the defense looked dominant and I think that momentum gets carried over here. Joe Flacco wasn’t flashy, but he was effecient. Expect a similar performance here as well. Additionally I’ll point out that Houston has seen the total go under the number in two of its last three on Monday Night Football, while Baltimore has seen the total dip below the posted number in six of its last nine in front of the home town crowd. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “track meet.” Play on the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-17 | Panthers v. Devils OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH is on the over Panthers/Devils (7:00 EST). Florida comes in off a 4-1 home loss to Chicago, while the Devils enter off a 4-3 OT victory over Detroit. So far the Panthers average 2.82 GPG, while conceding 3.45. Goaltender Roberto Luongo is 5-6 with a 2.71 GAA. Luongo is also 12-16 with a 2.76 GAA lifetime against New Jersey. The Devils average 3.22 GPG, while allowing 3.00. Netminder Corey Schneider who is 9-7 with a 2.76 GAA this year. I’ll point out though that Florida has seen the total go over the number in nine of 12 this year in revenging a loss against an opponent and in seven of ten after allowing four goals or more in its previous contest, while New Jersey has seen the total sail above the posted number in six of its last 11 against clubs with losing records. Suspect defensive play, combined with below average goaltending at the moment, points to this total flying over the number as the game comes donw the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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11-27-17 | Maryland +1 v. Syracuse | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Maryland (7:00 EST). Maryland comes to New York to take on the Orange sitting at 6-1 after an 80-65 thrashing of New Mexico last time out. Keep your eyes on the Terps’ Anthony Cowan, who had 21 points in their latest victory: “We’re used to winning close games,” Maryland coach Mark Turgeon assessed afterwards. “We had the lead twice in the second half and let it go, but we moved on. Anthony had two phenomenal games down here. He’s the kind of kid who probably can play three games in one day.” Syracuse comes in on a five game win streak, most recently getting the better of Toledo 72-64 in the Miami Invitational. Tyus Battle was left out of that game with injury and Frank Howard stepped up in his place to pour in 25 points. Clearly these teams are very evently matched. The fact that Battle was injured and is questionable for this one is a bit of a concern in my opinion. And if he does play, will he truly be at 100% capacity? Additionally I’ll point out that this one sets up great for the Terps as far as the trends are concerned, as note that Maryland is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following three or more consecutive home games, while the Orange are just 1-6 ATS in their last seven following a SU win. I think Maryland’s depth on offense wears down the home side. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers -14 | 28-31 | Loss | -108 | 126 h 57 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (8:30 EST). The 5-5 Green Bay Packers are in Pittsburgh to take on the 8-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Green Bay is reeling without Aaron Rodgers, coming in off a 23-0 loss at home to Baltimore. Backup QB Brett Hundley has struggled, last week he was 21 of 36 or 239 yards, no TD’s and three INT’s. Hundley has 940 yards and 2/7 TD/INT ratio since taking over for Rodgers. Rookie RB Jamaal Williams had 57 yards on 18 carries. Defensively the Packers looked decent, holding Baltimore to 219 total yards. But now Green Bay faces a Steelers unit which just exploded for a 40-17 win over Tennessee last Thursday. Ben Roethlisberger was 30 of 45 for 299 yards, four TD’s and no INT’s. The Steelers defense was tremendous, making four INT’s and allowing only 52 rushing yards. Overall Pittsburgh allows just 287 total yards per game, ranked fourth in the NFL. Note that Green Bay is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after getting blanked in its previous outing, while Pittsburgh is 2-1 ATS in its last three after scoring 40 points or more in its previous game. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Saints v. Rams -2.5 | 20-26 | Win | 100 | 130 h 40 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 12 Las Vegas Insider is on the LA Rams at 4:25 ET. The 8-2 New Orleans Saints are in LA to take on the 7-3 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. New Orleans is the hottest team in the NFL and railled for a 34-31 win over Washignton last week. Suffice it to say, I’m finally expecting a letdown here from Drew Brees and company. LA will be hungry for a rebound performance here after laying a dud in last week’s 24-7 road loss in Minnesota. The Rams also play with revenge after the Saints crushed them 49-21 last year. I think New Orleans is ripe for the picking though, gassed after such a long stretch of dominance. Last week the defense conceded 456 yards to the Redskins. New Orleans’ defense is a big reason why the Saints are so improved this year, but continued regression seems imminent against this dynamic Rams offense. LA has steamrolled over almost everybody it’s faced this season, but last week it came up short against the Vikings’ amazing defense. Overall the Rams have been terrific defensively as well, allowing an average of 123 rushing yards per game. Additionally I’ll point out that New Orleans is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while LA is 4-3 ATS as a favorite already this season and 2-1 ATS against clubs with winning records. I think there’s some room to read between the lines with the Saints’ improved defensive performance this year, as note that their last four opponents certainly haven’t been “World beaters” in the Packers (without Rodgers), the Bears, Bucs and Bills. Last week the Saints gave up 31 points to a strong offense on their home field, so things clearly won’t be any easier for them in this hostile environment. I’m banking on a blowout, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Jaguars -4.5 v. Cardinals | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 3 m | Show | |
My 9* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Jacksonville Jaguars (4:25 EST). The 7-3 Jacksonville Jaguars are in Arizona to take on the 4-6 Cardinals and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Jacksonville easily handled the Browns 19-7 on the road last week, while the Cards enter off a 31-21 road loss to Houston. Jags’ QB Blake Bortles was 17 of 30 for 154 yards, one TD and no INT’s. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette had 111 rushing yards on 28 carries. WR Marqise Lee had 45 yards receiving. But it was once again Jacksonville’s defense which was the difference maker, allowing Cleveland just 184 total yards of offense, while also forcing five turnovers. The Jags feature the No. 1 defense in the league, a unit which has already posted 40 sacks. Blaine Gabbert got the call for Arizona under center last week and he threw for 257 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s in place of the injured Drew Stanton. RB Adrian Peterson was a no-show for a second straight week, posting 26 rushing yards. Arizona’s defense also looked shaky, giving up 357 yards, including 134 on the ground. Additionally I’ll point out that Jacksonville is already 4-1 ATS on the road this year and 3-2 ATS against teams with losing records, while Arizona is just 1-2 ATS at home and only 1-4 ATS as an underdog. I think the Cards will have a tough time moving the ball against the Jags elite defense. Bortles hasn’t been spectacular this year, but Fournette should be able to do some damage. This line should be a lot bigger in my opinion, play on Jacksonville. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | UC Riverside +20.5 v. Michigan | Top | 42-87 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 55 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on UC Riverside (4:00 EST) UC Riverside enters off a 75-57 win over Western New Mexico at home, while Michigan comes in off a 68-60 victory over VCU in the Maui Invitational. UC Riverside averages 73.8 PPG and concdeds 73.2. In the win over WNMU, the Highlanders forced 23 turnovers and were led by Chance Murray with 17 points. Michigan averages just 77.3 PPG and allows 63.2. The Wolverines are a poor three-point shooting team and were just 5 of 20 from range in the win over the Rams. I’ll point out as well that UC Riverside is 3-1 ATS in its last four as a road dog in the 18.5 to 24 points range, while Michigan is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as a home fav in the 18.5 to 24 points range. With a game at North Carolina on Wednesday, I think the home side gets caught looking ahead. While I’m definitely not calling for an outright upset, I do think the conditions are right for a competitive affair. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Butler v. Ohio State +1.5 | 67-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 30 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Ohio State (3:00 EST). Clearly these teams are very evenly matched. Should be a nail-biter in the PK80 tournament on Sunday afternoon and as such, I’m going to grab the points. Butler held on for a 71-69 win over Portland State most recently. The Vikings went 12 of 26 from range, as the Bulldogs struggled with their perimiter defense. Three players would go on to score more than 14 points, led by Tyler Wideman with 18 points and eight boards. The Buckeyes beat the Cardinal 79-71 most recently, holding Stanford to just 36.1 percent from the floor. Ohio State dominated the glass (37-28) and was led by JC Jackson with 23 points. I’ll point out that Butler is already 0-2 ATS in all tourney games this year and just 1-3 ATS against teams with winning records, while Ohio State is 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing on one or less days rest. I like Ohio State to build off its latest performance and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on the Buckeyes. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Heat v. Bulls +6.5 | Top | 100-93 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 19 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Chicago Bulls (3:35 EST). Miami beat Boston and then went on the raod and beat the Wolves 109-97 on Friday night. I think this sets up as a natural letdown spot for the Heat this evening though. The Bulls will be desperate here, they’ve dropped four straight and nine of their last ten and will be out to atone for a lacklustre 143-94 beatdown in Golden State on the road Friday. Note that this is a revenge game as well after Miami took the first one of the season series, 97-91 back on November 1st. Miami averages 100.9 PPG and concedes 102.5. Hassan Whiteside averags 15.5 points and 12.9 boards per game. Goran Dragic averages 18.9 points, 4.3 boards and 4.7 assists. Chicago averages just 94.4 PPG, while allowing 107.3. Lauri Markkanen averages 14.6 points and 8.2 boards per game, while big man Robin Lopez averages 13.1 points and 5.5 boards per contest. I’ll point out though that Miami is a poor 1-5 ATS as a favorite this season and just 1-3 ATS this year off an upset win as an underdog, while Chicago is already 4-2 ATS this year following a loss by ten points or more. I won’t try to convince you that the Bulls are a good team which has just gotten some tough breaks to open the season, as that’s not the case. Chicago has problems across the board, with injuries being one of the main reasons the team has struggled to this point. However, I feel this is a bad spot for the Heat, with a game at Cleveland on Tuesday, followed by at New York on Thursday. All signs point to a letdown/look-ahead for Miami. Grab the points, play on Chicago. Godo luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Long Beach State v. Nebraska -6.5 | 80-85 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 25 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Nebraska (2:30 EST). This game is to decide fifth place in the AdvoCare Invitational. Both teams dropped their quarterfinal contests, ontly to then bounce back with wins on Friday. LBSU beat Oregon State, while Nebraska smashed Marist. The 49ers look poised for another letdown here though in my opinion after knocking off the Beavers as ten-point underdogs. Gabe Levin and Deishuan Booker led the way in the upset with 14 points apiece. Nebraska steamrolled Marist 84-59 as an 11.5 point fav. The Huskers shot almost 57 percent from the floor and posted 23 assists on 34 field goals made. Four players reached double figures, led by Isaac Copeland and Anton Gill with 17 apiece. II’ll point out that LBSU is already 0-2 ATS this year against schools with winning records, while the Huskers are already 2-0 ATS when playing with one or less days rest. I think the Nebraka’s defense and depth prove to be too much for the 49ers to overcome. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-26-17 | Bucs v. Falcons -9.5 | Top | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 119 h 39 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Atlanta Falcons (1:00 EST) The Falcons come in with a ton of momentum with consecutive victories over Dallas and Seattle. After a slow start to the 2017/18 campaign, I look for Matt Ryan and company to keep the foot on the gas again this weekend. The Bucs are reeling. Tampa is without starting QB Jameis Winston for a third straight game and it had lost five straight before winning the last two over bottom feeders New York and Miami. Tampa has turned to veteran Ryan Fitzpatrick, who comes in off the 30-20 win over the Fish this last weekend, going 22 of 37 for 275 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s. But Atlanta looks poised for a big run to end the year in my opinion, getting improved play in all three phases right now: “We’re getting our swagger back,” Falcons’ receiver Julio Jones assessed. “Last year’s last year–but you can’t win games off last year and it can’t do anything for this year. We’re just trying to get it going and get an identity as the 2017 Falcons.” I’ll point out that Tampa Bay is just 3-10-1 ATS in its last 14 against the NFC, while Atlanta is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 30 points or more in its previous contest. This is an important stretch for Atlanta, as this is the first of three straight in front of the home town crowd. I expect Ryan to open up the playbook and I look for Fitzpatrick to stumble down the stretch. Lay the points, play on the Falcons. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Knicks v. Rockets -13 | Top | 102-117 | Win | 100 | 28 h 0 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Houston Rockets (8:05 EST). New York comes in off a deflating loss in Atlanta just last night and I expect the team to have a predictable letdown here in the second game of the back-to-back as well. The Rockets are off their third straight win and nine of their last ten in a 125-95 victory at Denver on Wednesday. If recent history is any precedence, then Houston has to be loving its chances tonight as well, because when these teams met back on November 1st, it was the Rockets that socred the relatively simple 119-97 road victory. The Knicks have been great at home this year, going 5-2, but terrible on the road, now just 1-5 away from friendly confines after last night’s setback. The Rockets average 113.3 PPG and allow just 103.5, which ranks the team tenth. Houston has always been able to score, but now it looks as if its ready to seroiusly challenget Golden State because of its improved performance on that end of the floor. I’ll point out as well that the Knicks are 1-4 ATS in their last five in the second game of a back to back scenario, while Houston is 4-1 ATS in its last five against teams with a winning SU record. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Rockets. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Davidson -9.5 v. Appalachian State | 62-78 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 24 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on Davidson (7:00 EST). The 2-1 Davidson Wildcats get ready to battle the 3-3 Appalachian State Mountaineers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Wildcats. Davidson comes in off an 81-68 loss to Nevada, while the Mountaineers come in off an exhausting 105-99 double OT loss to James Madison. Suffice it to say, I think that Appalachian State comes in with “heavy legs” and “hung over” from that emotional and draining setback. And if recent history is any precedence, then Davidson has to be loving its chances today, because when these teams met last year it was the Wildcats that came out on top with a comfortable 86-74 victory. So far the Wildcats average 95 PPG and allow 94. Peyton Aldridge is averaging 22.7 PPG. The Mountaineers average 95 PPG and allow 76. Justin Forrest was a bright spot in the team’s double OT loss, finishing with a season-high 36 points. I’ll point out though that Davidson is 5-1 ATS in its last six when its opponent allows 100 or more points in its previous outing, while App State is just 6-14-2 ATS in its last 22 against teams with winning records. Davidson is the deeper team, with three players averaging at least 18 PPG. For all the reasons listed above, lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Georgetown v. Richmond +6.5 | Top | 82-76 | Win | 100 | 25 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Richmond (6:00 EST). The 3-0 Georgetown Hoyas are ready to battle the 1-4 Spiders on Saturday night and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend grabbing the points in a contest which I foresse being decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last. The Hoyas are led by 6-10 Jessie Govan, who is averaging 21 points and 14.3 rebounds per game. So far Georgetown averages 86 PPG and allows 60.7. The Spiders have struggled to open the year, most recently coming off a loss against UL Lafayette, a game which saw Grant Golden pour in 24 points. Richmond would actually shoot a great 50 precent from the field, but 19 turnovers would be too much for the team to overcome. I’ll point out though that Georgetown is just 12-18 ATS in its last 30 when playing the role of favorite and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 after allowing 60 points or less in its previous contest, while Richmond is 2-1 ATS this year as an underdog and 2-1 ATS against good offensive teams which score 77-plus points per contest. I think the hungry Spiders keep this one interesting until the final moments. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Alabama v. Auburn +4 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 147 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE YEAR is on Auburn (8:00 EST). The 11-0 Alabama Crimson Tide are at Auburn to take on the 9-2 Tigers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Alabama is ranked No. 1 after crushing FCS Mercer 56-0 at home last weekend. Auburn also comes in off a “cream puff,” smashing UL Monroe 42-14. Alabama held Mercer to just 161 total yards in the blowout victory. In all ‘Bama would post 530 yards, including 265 on the ground. The Tide rank ninth in rushing yards per game, with 270.3 per contest, with Damien Harris leading the way with 855 thus far. Alabama continues to get the job done with smothering defensive play and a nation leading rushing attack. Auburn seemed like it was getting caught “looking ahead” to the Iron Bowl this weekend against UL Monroe last Saturday, as the Tigers went into half time with just a 14-7 lead. However, Auburn woke up in a big way in the second half, scoring a quick 21 unanswered points. QB Jarrett Stidham had 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Overall Auburn averages 475.9 YPG, with 231.9 on the ground. Defensively the Tigers have been dominant as well, conceding just 302.5 YPG overall, including only 118.2 on the ground (ranked 16th in the country.) And I believe Auburn’s tough run defense will prove to be a big difference maker today. I’ll point out as well that Alabama is just 1-4 ATS in its last five conference contests, while Auburn is 6-1-1 ATS in its last eight in the same position. There’s no way the Tigers go down without a fight in their season finale in front of the home town crowd. I’m banking on a nail-biter, so grab the points! Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | North Carolina +17 v. NC State | 21-33 | Win | 100 | 126 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Carolina (3:30 EST). I’m expecting a much closer “Tobbacco Road” battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. UNC won its second straight, most recently dispatching Western Carolina 65-10 at home on Saturday. Suffice it to say, I think the Tar Heels are going to carry over that confidence and momentum here. NC State on the other hand lost for the third time in its last four games in a 30-24 road setback to Wake Forest this past weekend. Note that this is a revenge game for North Carolina after the Wolfpack won 28-21 in last year’s meeting. North Carolina averages 26.5 PPG and allows 31.1. QB Chazz Surratt has 1,342 passing yards, eight TD’s and three INT’s, while adding 40 yards and three more scores on the ground. RB Jordon Brown has 589 yards and four TD’s on the ground. NC State averages 30.4 PPG and concedes 25.1. QB Ryan Finley has 2,992 yards, 16 TD’s and five INT’s. RB Nyheim Hines has 844 yards and seven TD’s on the ground. I’ll point out though that UNC is still 9-4 ATS in its last 13 on the road, while NC State is just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 at home (including only 1-3 ATS this year.) The Tar Heels have won two straight and I think they’ll give the Wolfpack everything they can handle tonight. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Connecticut +5.5 v. Cincinnati | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on UConn (12:00 EST). Both teams are looking to close out miserable season’s with an elusive victory. UConn has lost four straight, most recently to Boston College. Cincinnati is also just 3-8 this year, going just 1-7 in its last eight overall. In their 38-16 loss to BC, Huskies’ QB David Pindell had 241 yards, one TD and three INT’s. It was a cold, blustery day at Fenway Park and Pindell would struggle for the most part. The Bearcats enter off a 48-20 loss to East Carolina. Cincinnati is ranked dead last in the AAC in total offense. Last week the Bearcats finished with 326 total yards of offense. Note that UConn is already 4-3 ATS against the conference this year, while Cincinnati is just 2-5 ATS in the same position. The Bearcats are 103rd in the country in total offense. Pindell and company don’t have to do too much to keep this one close and the outright win isn’t out of the question either obviously. In a contest which I foresse being decided by whichever team has the ball in its hands last, I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-25-17 | Indiana v. Purdue -2.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 123 h 36 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Purdue (12:00 EST). Home field advantage will prove to be the difference maker today between two teams sitting at 5-6. Each side will be laying everything on the line as it tries to punch its ticket to bowl eligibility. Indiana kept is playoff hopes alive with a second straight win by smashing Rutgers 41-0 at home last Saturday, while Purdue enters off a big 24-15 road win at Iowa last Saturday. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Boilermakers though, who have lost four straight in the series, including a 26-24 setback in the most recent matchup last November 26th. Indiana comes into the final game of the year ranked 74th in scoring offense with an average of just 27.1 PPG, while ranked 45th on the defensive side by conceding 24.8. QB Richard Lagow has 1,563 yards, 12 TD’s and seven INT’s, while Peyton Ramsey has 1,252 yards, ten TD’s and five INT’s. Purdue ranks 104th in scoring offense by averaging only 23.7 PPG, but it gets the job done most weekends with its powerful defensive play, a unit which is ranked 18th overall by conceding just 18.9 PPG. QB David Blough has 1,103 yards, nine TD’s and four INT’s. Blough’s been out for a bit though and back up Elijah Sindelar has been good in replacement, going for 1,544 yards, 12 TD’s and six iINT’s. I’ll point out that Indiana is 0-6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of more than 20 points, while Purdue is 17-5 ATS in its last 22 after posting less than 100 rushing yards in its previous game. I like the Boilermakers to continue their “lights out” defensive play and carry over their momentum from their impressive victory over the Hawkeyes. Indiana has struggled on the road for the most part this year and I think it looks primed for a letdown after the back-to-back victories. Lay the points, play on Purdue. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Wisc-Milwaukee +16.5 v. Wisconsin | Top | 49-71 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 9 m | Show |
My 10* 34-CLUB PLAY is on Milwaukee (9:00 EST). The 4-1 Milwaukee Panthers are in Wisconsin to take on the 2-3 Badgers and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do definitley think that this one will end up being a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Milwaukee comes in off a 72-71 win over Elon, while Wisconsin fell 72-71 to UCLA. These teams haven’t played since 2015, when the Panthers defeated the Badgers 68-67. The Panthers rallied from a 17-point halftime deficit to knock off the Phoenix at home, outrebounding Elon 41-35 and committing just five turnovers. Keep your eyes on Brock Stull, who had 21 points, five boards and five assists in the victory. Milwaukee won’t be intimidated here at all, as it’s already beaten Iowa State this season. So far the Panthers average 70 PPG and concede 64. Wisconsin averages 75 PPG and concedes 66. The Badgers allowed UCLA to shoot 54 percent from the floor last time out though. Ethan Hpp was a standout, posting 19 points, nine boards and five assists. Additionally I’ll point out that the Panthers are 6-1 ATS in their last seven on the road and 4-0 ATS in their last four non-conference games, while the Badgers are just 3-7 ATS in their last ten following an ATS victory. The Panthers come in on top form, especially on the defensive end, conceding just 56 points to Iowa State and only 51 points to FIU earlier in the year. Obvoiusly the Badgers are tough at home, but this should be a nail-biter. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Texas Tech +10.5 v. Texas | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 107 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* FOX-TV GAME OF THE YEAR is on Texas Tech (8:00 EST). Texas Tech has lost five of six, including a 27-3 setback to TCU on Saturday. Texas Tech will need an outright win today to move back to .500. Texas Tech has struggled offensively of late, posting 27 points or less in three of its last five games. Texas had endured an up and down season, but enters off a 28-14 win over WVU. I’m going to caution reading too much into the Longhorns defensive performance last week against the Mountaineers, as WVU starting QB Will Grier was hurt early. The Longhorns have to be feeling pretty content after finally punching their sixth win of the year last week. Texas is now bowl eligible. The Red Raiders still need one more victory before they’ll be included in any bowl game in December though, so there’s no questioning whether or not Texas Tech will be motivated today. Also note that the Red Raiders are a perfect 5-0 ATS in their last five as a road dog in the 7.5 to ten points range, while Texas is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins. Letdown spot for Texas, while Texas Tech leaves everything on the line. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Knicks v. Hawks +2 | Top | 104-116 | Win | 100 | 28 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:30 EST). I think the Knicks have a letdown here after winning two straight, most recently a 108-100 victory at home over Toronto. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for ATL, as it’s lost three straight and seven of eight after falling 116-103 at home to the Clippers on Wednesday. New York used a 41-10 third quarter to hammer the Raptors last time out. The Knicks average 104.9 PPG and concede 103.4. Big man Kristaps Porzingis averages 27.3 points, 7.4 boards and 2.31 blocks per night. Atlanta averages 102.8 PPG and concedes 108.2. Dennis Schroder keeps his team competitive by averaging 19.7 points, plus 7.1 boards per game. I’ll point out though that New York is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 108 points or more in its previous contest, while Atlanta is 3-1 ATS in its last four after three or more consecutive SU losses. With a game tomorrow night at Houston, I think the Knicks get caught looking ahead. Grab the points, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Senators v. Blue Jackets -155 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Columbus Blue Jackets (7:00 EST). Columbus comes in off an OT win over Calgary and it’s now won five straight. Suffice it to say, I’m fully expecting the home side to carry that mometum over here. The Senators on the other hand are in “free fall” mode, having dropped four straight. Note that Columbus plays with revenge here as well as Ottawa took three of four in the season series a year ago. During their slide the Sens have posted just five goals, most recently getting shutout at New York, followed up by a 5-2 loss to Washington on Wednesday. Goaltender Craig Anderson gave up four of those five goals to the Capitals before being pulled. A cold offense is not what the doctor ordered when facing red hot Blue Jackets’ netminder Sergei Bobrovsky, who has given up four goals during his team’s five game win streak (that includes two shuouts.) Note that Ottawa is just 1-5 in its last six against the Eastern Conference, while Columbus is 4-0 in its last four in the same position. I’m banking on Bobrovsky to continue his stellar play. Great value, play on the Blue Jackets. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Iowa v. Nebraska +3 | 56-14 | Loss | -100 | 103 h 52 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Nebraska (4:00 EST). Iowa will be hungry here after dropping its second straight, most recently a 24-15 setback at home to Purdue. Nebraska though can empathize, as it dropped its third straight and fifth in it last six in a 56-44 shootout loss to Penn State on the road last week. Note that the Huskers play with revenge here, as Iowa has taken the last two in the series, most recently a 40-10 home victory last November 25th. After upsetting Ohio State, Iowa has fallen flat in back-to-back outings, moving to just 3-5 in Big Ten play. The Hawkeyes are ranked 87th in the nation in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 26th defensively in conceding 20.5. QB Nathan Stanley has 2,146 yards, 23 TD’s and six INT’s. Nebraska is ranked 76th in scoring offense with 26.8 PPG, while ranked 106th in scoring defense by allowing 34.8. QB Tanner Lee has 2,938 passing yards, 21 TD’s and 13 INT’s. I’ll point out though that Iowa is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven off a loss against a conference rival (including only 1-2 ATS this season), while Nebraska is 4-1 ATS in its last five after two or more consecutive SU losses and 6-5 ATS in its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival. While I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. Play on Nebraska. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | New Mexico +20 v. San Diego State | 10-35 | Loss | -110 | 102 h 28 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on New Mexico (3:30 EST). The 3-8 New Mexico Lobos are in SDSU to take on the 9-2 Aztecs on Friday afternoon and while I’m not calling for an outright upset, I do definitely expect the visitors to keep this on a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. New Mexico has lost six straight, but it looked competitive in last week’s 38-35 loss to UNLV. SDSU is in a dog fight to the end and most recently beat Nevada 42-23. The Lobos went toe-to-toe with red hot UNLV QB Armani Rogers, but in the end it wasn’t to be. However, I absolutely believe New Mexico will bring that same intensity over into the season finale. Aztecs’ RB Rashaad Penny had a monster game last weekend, exploding for 429 all purpose yards. It was an amazing day, but I have a hard time seeing Penny duplicating such massive efforts on back-to-back weeks. I’ll point out as well that New Mexico is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival and 4-2 ATS in its last six as an underdog of 10.5 to 21 points, while SDSU is just 2-4 ATS at home this year. I think SDSU goes up early and takes the foot off the gas late, allowing the hungry Lobos to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-24-17 | Baylor +24 v. TCU | 22-45 | Win | 100 | 99 h 54 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (12:00 EST). Baylor is just 1-10 on the year. The Bears beat Kansas, but they’ve since dropped back to back games to Texas Tech and then to Iowa State. TCU is 9-2 after destroying Texas Tech this past weekend. The Bears were competitive in a 23-13 loss to Iowa State Saturday and they’ll look to play spoiler to a TCU team which must win today to lock up its spot in the conference championship against Oklahoma. TCU beat Texas Tech 27-3 last weekend, but freshman QB Shawn Robison (filling in for Kenny Hill), wasn’t overly spectacular, finishing with 85 yards, one TD and zero INT’s. Hill is probable for this one, but one has to wonder if he’ll really be at 100% at this point? I’ll point out as well that Baylor is 10-6 ATS in its last 16 against teams with winning records, while TCU is just 1-3 ATS in its last four as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. I think the pressure gets to TCU this weekend and Iook for the the Bears to keep this one competitive unitl the final quarter. Grab the points. Good luck….Larry |
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11-23-17 | Ole Miss v. Mississippi State UNDER 62.5 | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 75 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* Total Oddsmaker’s Error is on the under Ole Miss/Mississippi State (7:30 EST). The 5-6 Ole Miss Runnin Rebels are at Mississippi State to take on the 8-3 Bulldogs and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak below the posted number once it’s all said and done. The Rebels enter off a 28-24 home loss to Texas A&M, while the Bulldogs beat Arkansas 28-21. When these teams played last year it was Mississippi State which scored the 55-20 victory. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much more defensive battle tonight. Mississippi scored 24 points in the first half against the Aggies last week, but it was then shutout in the second. QB Jordan Ta’amu had 189 yards, two TD’s and an INT. Ta’amu has been decent in a backup role with a 9/3 TD/INT ratio. RB Jordan Wilkins was a bright spot in the setback with 147 yards on 19 carries. Ole Miss needs just one more victory to reach the six-win plateau, but a self imposed “bowl ban” makes the mark pointless. The Bulldogs looked stout defensively last week, holding Arkansas to just 221 total yards and a 3 for 11 record on third down attempts. I’ll point out that Ole Miss has seen the total go under the number in three of its last four road games when the total is set between 56.5 and 63 points, while Mississippi State has seen the total dip below the posted number in five of six as a favorite this season and in four of five in front of the home town crowd. I expect a battle and for this one to sneak under the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-17 | Chargers v. Cowboys | Top | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 72 h 51 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the LA Chargers (4:30 EST). The 4-6 LA Chargers are in Dallas to take on the 5-5 Cowboys and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. LA comes in having won four of its last six, most recently smashing the Bills. Chargers’ QB Philip Rivers had 251 yards and two TD’s in that one. Rivers has been dominant this year with 2,514 yards, 17 TD’s and seven INT’s. Melvin Gordon keeps defenses honest, so far posting 633 yards and five TD’s on the ground. The Cowboys though are reeling. After winning three in a row, Dallas has now dropped two straight to Atlanta and Philadelphia respectively. Dak Prescott looked terrible in his last outing, throwing for 145 yards and three INT’s. Prescott has 16 TD’s and seven INT’s thus far, but he’s going to struggle again without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup. I’ll point out as well that LA is 94-68 ATS in road games when playing with six or less days of rest since 1992, while Dallas is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after its QB failed to register 150 passing yards in its previous outing. Without Elliot playing, Dallas is very one dimensional. The Cowboys have averaged only 16 points over their last two games. That’s not going to cut it against a red hot Rivers and company. Play on the Chargers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-23-17 | Vikings v. Lions +2.5 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 52 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the Detroit Lions (12:30 EST). The 8-2 Minnesota Vikings are in Detroit on Thanksgiving to take on the 6-4 Lions and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Minnesota comes in off a 24-7 win over the Rams in its latest action, its sixth win in a row. Detroit enters off a tougher than expected 27-24 road win at Chicago, its third straight victory. If recent history is any precedence though, then Detroit has to be loving its chances, because when these teams played on October 1st, it was the Lions that scored the 14-7 upset victory. Minnesota’s Case Keenum was 27 of 38 for 280 yards and a score last week. Overall the Vikes held the Rams to just 45 rushing yards on 17 attempts. Minnesota enters this game ranked second defensively, conceding just 17.2 PPG. Lions’ QB Matt Stafford had 299 yards and two TD’s last week, but Detroit posted just 66 rushing yards. Detroit has struggled with the run this year, ranked 28th, while been dominant in the passing game, ranked sixth. Ultimately I think the short week favors the home side. Minnesota has been playing incredible defense, but I believe the unit finally comes in “gassed.” Expect Stafford to air this one out early and often and while I obviously wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-17 | Sharks -126 v. Coyotes | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
10* Las Vegas Insider on the San Jose Sharks (9:05 EST). San Jose comes to town on the heels of a three-game losing streak, with only one hope to snap the slide. And that hope arrives in the form of the Arizona Coyotes, who I believe are primed for a letdown here after three straight victories. The Sharks offense has gone cold of late. Defense and goaltending are both fine. Note that while they’ve allowed eight goals in their last three home games, they’ve only managed to pot three themselves. San Jose No. 1 netminder Martin Jones (8-5-1) is expected between the pipes after giving up two goals on 30 shot attempts to Anaheim in his latest action. I think he’ll be a difference maker today. This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Coyotes as well. Arizona won three straight on the road in Eastern Canada and then returns home for its first game against a desperate team. The Coyotes most recently beat the Leafs 4-1 in Toronto. I believe the situation favors the desperate Sharks. I expect San Jose to finally find the back of the net tonight. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-17 | Clippers v. Hawks +3 | Top | 116-103 | Loss | -108 | 27 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). The Clippers are in a free-fall right now, most recently dropping their ninth straight in a 107-85 setback to the Knicks on Monday. The Hawks can empathize, as they lost their second straight and sixth of their last seven in a 96-85 setback on the road in San Antonio on Monday. These teams played twice last year and it was the Clippers that won both, meaning that this does also set up as a double revenge scenario for Atlanta tonight. LA averages 104.9 PPG and concedes 106.6. Blake Griffin leads the nightly charge with 22.7 points, 7.8 boards and 4.7 assists per game. In the loss to New York the Clippers shot just 37.5 percent from the floor, including just 10 of 32 from range. Atlanta averages 102.8 PPG and concedes 107.8. Dennis Schroder keeps his team respectable most nights by averaging 19.7 points, plus 7.1 assists per game. I’ll point out though that LA is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven againt a team with a losing straight up record, while ATL is 5-1 ATS in its last six home games against a team with a losing road record. I think the Hawks are the hungrier team here. They’ve been kicked around long enough and finally have an opponent to take advantage of. After a hot start, the Clippers are in complete dissaray. Grab the points, play on Atlanta. Good luck…Larry |
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11-22-17 | Toledo +11.5 v. Syracuse | Top | 64-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Toledo (7:00 EST). Toledo comes to New York off an 84-74 win over Oakland at home, while the Orange dispatched that same Oakland team 74-50 in their most recent action. In the early going the Rockets are ranked 69th in scoring in the nation with an average of 85.7 PPG, while ranked 212th on the defense side by conceding 74.3. Jaelan Sanford is avering 23.3 PPG after putting up 26 in the win over the Golden Grizzlies. The Orange are ranked 185th in the country in scoring with an average of 75.5 PPG, while ranked 14th on the defensive side by conceding 56.0 PPG. Syracuse is led by Tyus Battle, with 23 PPG this year and he’d post 25 against Oakland. I’ll point out though that Toledo has fared well in this spot for bettors, going 11-6 ATS in its last 17 as an underdog and 14-10 ATS in its last 24 non-conference games, while Syracuse has struggled in this position by going just 16-18 ATS in its last 34 against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per contest. A matchup of contrasting styles. I think Toledo’s high-powered offense keeps the visitors in this one late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-17 | Oilers v. Blues -145 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 24 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the St. Louis Blues (8:05 EST). Edmonton enters off a 6-3 loss at Dallas, while St. Louis fell 4-3 in OT to the Canucks on the road. The Oilers rank just 27th in the league in scoring with 2.50 GPG, while ranked 23rd on the defensive end by conceding 3.15. Goaltender Cam Talbot is 7-11 with a 3.10 GAA this season, including only 3-5 with a 2.67 GAA on the road. The Blues rank seventh in the league in scoring with 3.24 GPG, while ranked fifth on the defensive side by conceding just 2.62. Goaltender Jake Allen is 11-6 with a 2.72 GAA on the year and 6-2 with a 2.45 GAA at home. I’ll point out as well that Edmonton is just 19-39 in its last 58 following a loss by three or more goals, while St. Louis is an amazing 42-12 in its last 54 against clubs with a winning percentage below .400. The Blues are top in the West right now with 31 points and they’re 7-2 at home. They have the better goaltender and much better overall offense. St. Louis is also the more skilled and deeper team. How is this line not a lot larger? We’ll make the books pay, lay the price with confidence on the Blues in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-17 | Alabama A&M v. Minnesota -37 | Top | 57-100 | Win | 100 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
My 10* WEEKLY WIPEOUT WINNER is on Minnesota (8:00 EST). The 0-3 Alabama A&M Bulldogs get ready to take on the 4-0 Golden Gophers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Gophers. The Bulldogs most recently fell 104-67 to Alabama in their latest outing. Amari Gouldbourne led the way with 17 points and four assists in the setback. So far Alabama A&M has averaged 62.7 PPG. Minnesota most recently destroyed Western Carolina 92-64. Jordan Murphy led the way with 23 points, while Amer Coffey chipped in 15 points and four assists. So far the Golden Gophers average 94.2 PPG in the early going. I’ll point out though that Alabama A&M is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven non-conference games, while Minnesota is 7-3 ATS in its last ten at home. The Gophers will go up early and look to maintain pressure right up until the final horn. So far Minnesota’s biggest margin of victory this year has been by 28 points, but I expect an absolute blowout tonight, even with second stringers leading the way in the second half. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-21-17 | Miami-OH v. Ball State +18 | Top | 28-7 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST). The 4-7 Miami Ohio Redhawks are at Ball State to take on the 2-9 Cardinals on Tuesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Ball State comes in off a 40-24 loss at home to Buffalo last Thursday, while the Redhawks fell 27-24 at home to EMU on Wednesday, putting the final nail in the coffin for Miami Ohio’s bowl hopes. The Redhawks hurt themselves with two turnovers last week. Gus Ragland was 22 of 32 for 251 yards and a TD. Miami Ohio will finish ranked 71st in total offense and 38th in total defense. The Cardinals’ Jack Milas had 127 yards and two TD’s last week, while Caleb Huntley added 141 yards on 26 carries. Ball State is ranked 118th overall on offense and 100th on the defensive side. Miami Ohio is the better team, but it comes off the deflating, season ending loss just last week. Ball State has been out of it for a while but won’t be lacking for motivation in its final home game of the year (also note that the underdog is 5-1 ATS in the last six in this series.) For all the reasons listed above, play on Ball State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | North Carolina v. Stanford +7 | Top | 96-72 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 9 m | Show |
The third 10* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Stanford (11:30 EST). The 2-0 North Carolina Tar Heels are in Stanford to take on the 3-1 Cardinal and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. UNC comes in off a 93-81 home win over Bucknell, while the Cadinal defeated Northwestern 73-59 on Friday. Joel Berry II had eight points in his return from injury in the Tar Heels win over Bucknell. Luke Maye had 20 points. So far UNC has averaged 89.5 points over its first two games, while conceding 75. Stanford has averaged 75.2 PG over the first four and allowed just 67. Reid Travis had 16 points in his teams latest victory. I’ll point out that the UNC is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Stanford is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven against a team with a winning straight up record. Travis is a difficult matchup for the Tar Heels. The Cardinal have a couple more games under the belts to figure things out and I believe they keep this one close on their home floor. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Hawks +9.5 v. Spurs | 85-96 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
My 8* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the Atlanta Hawks (8:35 EST). The 3-13 Atlanta Hawks are in San Antonio to take on the 10-6 Spurs and while I’m not going to call for the outright upset, I do believe that the hungry visiting side can keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Hawks most recently fell 110-99 to the Celtics, looking great in the first half and then falling apart in the second. San Antonio is finding ways to win, but I think it comes in flat-footed and disinterested against its lowly Eastern Conference opponent tonight. The Hawks won’t be rolling over and with Dennis Schroeder in your line-up, you always have a “punchers chance.” Schroeder had 23 points, nine assists, two boards and two steals in the setback to the Cetlics. The Spurs came from behind to knock off the Thunder 104-101 on Friday night, led by 26 points and nine boards from big man LaMarcus Aldridge. Does the fact that the Hawks are 14-9 ATS in their last 23 against the Southwest division mean anything here? Well, it certainly doesn’t hurt. Also note that the Spurs are already 0-3 ATS this season when playing on two days rest. With a game at Western conference foe Minnesota on Wednesday, I look for the Spurs to get caught looking ahead and I expect the desperate visiting side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread that it’s been afforded. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Falcons v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | Top | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* O/U SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the under Falcons/Seahawks (8:30 EST). The 5-4 Atlanta Falcons are in Seattle to take on the 6-3 Seahawks in an important NFC battle on Monday night and in my opinion, all signs point to a lower-scoring “chess match.” Both teams come in off victories, but each has suffered recent signficant injuries. The Hawks lost Kam Chancellor, while the Falcons lost RB Devonta Freeman in their 27-7 home win over the Cowboys last weekend. Atlanta’s defense looked sharp last week, albeit against a depleted Dallas offense. sacking Dak Prescott eight times. DE Adrian Clayborn had six sacks, while the Cowboys were limited to just 126 passig yards and 107 on the ground overall. Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan’s pedestrian season continues, coming into this one with a 13/8 TD/INT ratio and a 93.9 QB rating. Seahawks’ QB Russell Wilson was 22 of 32 for 238 yards, two TD’s and no INT’s in his team’s Thursday night win over Arizona. Seattle’s defense has taken a hit because of injury, but note that the team has still seen the total go under the number in all six games it’s played this year against the conference and four of six already this season when playing the role of favorite. And note that Atlanta has seen the total dip below the posted number in in all four games that it’s played in this year against clubs with winning records. It’s going to be cold, blustery and likely raining hard in the Great Pacific Northwest on Monday night. All signs point to field position being paramount in the final outcome. This number is a little high, play the under. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Jazz v. 76ers UNDER 212 | Top | 86-107 | Win | 100 | 26 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK is on the under Jazz/76ers (7:05 EST). The Jazz come in off their first road win of the year after smashing the Magic 125-85 on Saturday. This is the finale of a four game Eastern swing for Utah and I think it’s going to suffer a predictable letdown. The 76ers had their two-game win streak snapped in a 124-116 home loss to Golden State on Saturday. When these teams played on November 7th, it was Philadelphia which secured the 104-97 road victory and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a similar final combined score here as well once it’s all said and done. Utah is 27th in the league in scoring with 100.5 PPG and it’s ranked fifth in the league in scoring defense by conceding 100.8 PPG. Derek Favors and Rodney Hood have been recent standouts with big man Rudy Gobert still out with injury for a few more weeks. Philadelphia averages 109 PPG and concedes 110.4. Big man Joel Embiid averages 22.8 points, plust 10.9 boards per game. I’ll point out though that Utah has seen the total go under the number in 11 of its last 19 off an upset win as an underdog, while Philadelphia has seen the total dip below the posted number in 12 of its last 20 after scoring 115 points or more in its previous contest. The conditions and the numbers both point to the under as the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Long Beach State v. West Virginia -23 | 62-91 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
The first 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on West Virginia (7:00 EST). The 2-1 Long Beach State 49ers are getting ready to battle the 2-1 WVU Mountaineers on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors West Virginia. LBSU beat San Francisco and San Francisco State, before then falling 89-81 at Oregon State. The 49ers have five players who average at least ten points. In the loss to the Beavers, they’d let Oregon State shoot 55.4 percent from the field and go 22 of 29 from the line. Turnovers continue to plague LBSU, having committed 55 through the first three games. WVU opened with an 88-65 loss to Texas A&M, before then smashing American and Morgan State. The Mountaineers were 28-9 last year and they returned three starters from that team, so the loss to A&M was a difficult one. But with two “cream puffs” to get back on track, I think WVU carries that progression over here against LBSU. Keep your eyes on Daxter Miles Jr. who had 32 points in 22 minutes against Morgan State. Additionally I’ll point out that LBSU is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven as a road dog of 12.5 points or more, while WVU is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a home fav in the 18.5 to 24 points range. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Mountaineers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-20-17 | Oakland v. Syracuse -9 | 50-74 | Win | 100 | 26 h 39 m | Show | |
The second 8* pick of my Superstar Triple Play is on Syracuse (7:00 EST). The 2-1 Oakland Golden Grizzlies are in Syracuse to take on the 3-0 Orange on Monday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Oakland comes in off a 13 point loss to Toledo and after Syracuse it has a tough game against Kansas. I think this sets up as a classic letdown/trap for the visitors today, who come in “bummed” off the loss to the Rockets, while also not able to help themselves in some small way “looking ahead” to their matchup with the Jayhawks. Note that the Golden Grizzlies got just seven points from their bench in the loss to Toledo. The Orange needed a 29-6 run to beat Texas Southern and I think Syracuse carries that momentum over here. Tyus Battle had 21 points and was one of five that scored in double figures. I’ll point out as well that Oakland is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after allowing 80 points or more, while Syracuse is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 when playing with one or less days rest. The Orange are the deeper and more skilled team and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Nuggets v. Lakers +5 | Top | 109-127 | Win | 100 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the LA Lakers (9:35 EST). I think Denver has a letdown here after its big 146-114 home win over New Orleans on Friday. It was the team’s fourth win in its last five games. Conversely, it’s going to be all hands on deck for the young Lakers who lost for the fifth time in six games, falling at home to Phoenix 122-113 on Friday. This is a revenge game for LA as well, as Denver has won four of the last five in the series, including taking two of three last year. Denver averages 108.5 PPG and concedes 105.4. Paul Millsap leads the way with 16 points and 6.3 boards per game, while Will Barton adds 14.1 points. Big man Nikola Jokic contributes 16.2 points, 11.6 boards and 4.7 assists per game. LA averages 104.3 PPG and concedes 107.4. Brook Lopez averges 15.1 points and 4.9 boards per game, while Brandon Ingram adds 14.9 points. Despite his recent struggles, Lonzo Ball adds 8.8 points, 6.6 boards and 6.8 assists per game. I’ll point out as well that Denver is just 1-5 ATS this year against teams with losing records and 0-3 ATS this season after scoring 115 points or more, while LA is 3-2 ATS against clubs with winning recrds and 5-4 ATS against good offensive teams which average 106 plus points per contest. I think the desperation in which the Lakers play with tonight, turns out to be the difference. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Eagles v. Cowboys UNDER 49 | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 79 h 19 m | Show | |
My 9* O/U Weekend Wipeout Winner under Eagles/Cowboys (8:30 EST). Philadelphia won its seventh straight in its 51-23 demolition of the Broncos on November 4th. The team then had its bye last week. Dallas had its three-game win streak snapped in a 27-7 loss on the road in Atlanta last Sunday. The Eagles are so far second in the league in scoring by averaging 31.4 PPG, while ranked tenth on the defensive side by conceding 19.9. QB Carson Wentz has 2,262 yards, 23 TD’s and five INT’s thus far. Philadelphia has a dynamic run game which is led by LeGarrette Blount, who has 504 yards and two TD’s thus far. Dallas comes in ranked eighth in the league in scoring with an average of 25.9 PPG, while ranked 17th on the defensive side by conceding 22.8. QB Dak Prescott has 1,994 yards, 16 TD’s and four INT’s thus far. This is clearly a big game for Dallas, which would fall even further behind the Eagles in the divisoin race with a loss. Look for the home side to try and control the pace of this one while on offense as much as possible, so as to limit the time Wentz and company are on the field of play. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia has seen the total go under the number in 13 of its last 23 when playing the role of favorite, while Dallas has seen the total dip below the posted number in four of its last five home games when the total in the contest is set between 45.5 and 49 points. The Cowboys’ offense has struggled without RB Ezekiel Elliot in the lineup and things aren’t going to get any easier tonight. I look for these divisional foes to battle tough and for this total to ultimately fall below the number once it’s all said and done. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | South Florida v. Indiana -13.5 | Top | 53-70 | Win | 100 | 24 h 4 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Indiana (6:00 EST). The 2-1 South Florida Bulls get ready to battle the 1-2 Hoosiers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Indiana. So far the Hoosiers have lost to Indiana State and Seton Hall, while the Bulls come to Assembly Hall off a win over lowly Stetson on Wednesday. It wasn’t easy for USF either, edging Stetson 75-72 in the end. So far four Bulls are averaging double-digits, led by Tulio DaSilva, with 14 PPG in the early going. For Indiana you’ll want to keep your eyes on sophomore forward De’Ron Davis, who leads the team in scoring with 11.7 PPG thus far. The Hoosiers have been getting decent production from their bench, which averages 29 PPG, with four different reserves averaging double figures. Defense has been the main issue for Indiana early, but the Hoosiers catch a break here facing the impotent Bulls. I’ll point out as well that South Florida is a poor 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with losing records and 0-2 ATS in its last two against poor defensive teams which allow 77 plus points per contest, while Indiana is 2-0 ATS in its last two after failing to cover the spread in three or more consecutive contests. I like the Hoosiers to continue their solid offensive play and to finally show up on the defensive side as well. Beating Stetson is one thing, but contending with a focused Hoosiers team which to this point has drastically underperformed is quite another. Lay the poitns with confidence, play on Indiana. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Bills v. Chargers -4 | 24-54 | Win | 100 | 75 h 5 m | Show | |
My 8* PERFECT STORM is on the LA Chargers (4:05 EST). The Bills were destroyed 47-10 at home to New Orleans last weekend, a beatdown so bad that the team has benched QB Tyrod Taylor in favor of backup Nate Peterman moving forward. Peterman was 7 of ten for 79 yards and a TD last week. Buffalo comes in ranked 28th in the league in total offense with just 292 YPG and 19th in scoring with 20.4 PPG, while the defense has been middle-of-the-pack, allowing 21.8, ranked 15th. The Chargers rank 23rd in scoring with 18.6 PPG, while ranked ninth on the defensive side by conceding just 19.1 PPG. LA comes into this one with four losses of three points or fewer (after having five losses of four points or fewer last season.) The Chargers’ run game has been a weak point, but the Bills have been gouged for 492 yards on the ground over the last two weeks combined. Last week LA QB Philip Rivers was 21 of 37 for 235 yards, two TD’s and an INT. I’ll point out that the Bills are just 1-11 ATS in their last 12 following a double-digit loss at home, while the Chargers are 5-1 ATS in their last six in this series in front of the home town crowd. If Melvin Gordon is going to have a break out performance, then this is the team to have it against. Rivers is going to have plenty of opportunities as well against this Bills team which is once again searching for an identity in all three phases. Lay the points with confidence as the Bolts lay down the hammer at home. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Ravens v. Packers +2 | Top | 23-0 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 27 m | Show |
My 10* NFL Week 11 Las Vegas Insider GOY is on the GB Packers at 1:00 ET. The 4-5 Baltimore Ravens are in Green Bay to take on the 5-4 Packers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Baltimore last played on November 5th in Tennessee and lost to the Titans 23-20. Green Bay comes in with momentum with Brett Hundley under center, coming off an upset 23-16 victory at Chicago last Sunday. In the Ravens latest loss, QB Joe Flacco had 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. The run game posted just 73 yards on 22 carries. Overall Baltimore is ranked 30th in total offense by averaging 286.6 YPG, while ranked in the middle of the pack defensively, allowing 184.7 YPG through the air and 125.9 on the ground. Green Bay ranks 23rd in total offense with an average of 313.7 YPG, while ranked 24th in total defense by conceding 353.6. Hundley though has started to find his groove and will benefit today from playing in front of the home town crowd. I’ll point out as well that Baltimore is just 1-8 ATS in its last nine non-conference games (including 0-2 ATS this year) and just 7-12 ATS in its last 19 when playing the role of favorite, while Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine off a win against a division rival and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog. The Ravens were in “free fall” before their bye and I don’t think the extra time off is going to help their issues. Hundley meanwhile has gotten progressively better with each start and I look for that trend to continue on Sunday afternoon. Play on Green Bay. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears +3 | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on the Chicago Bears (1:00 EST). The 5-4 Detroit Lions are in Chicago to take on the 3-6 Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Detroit comes in off a 38-14 win over Cleveland, while Chicago dropped a tough 23-16 decision at home to Green Bay. These teams split a pair of games last year, each being decided by a single field goal. Detroit QB Matt Stafford has a 17/5 TD/INT ratio this year. Last weekend RB Ameer Abdullah had 52 yards on the ground, part of 104 total for the Lions. Stafford had 249 yards, three TD’s and an INT. The Lions looked poor defensively though, conceding 413 yards, including 201 on the ground. Chicago allowed 342 total yards to the Packers last week. QB Mitchell Trubisky was 21 of 35 for 297 yards, a TD and no INT’s. Trubisky looked more comfortable last week and I expect that progression to once again get carried over here. RB Jeremy Howard had 54 yards on 15 carries. The strength of the Bears’ defense is against the pass, which is also in Chicago’s favor facing the Lions’ pass-centric offense. I’ll point out as well that Detroit is just 1-3 ATS in its last four after two or more consecutive SU wins, while Chicago is 6-3 ATS in its last nine off a loss against a division rival. I’m expecting a nail-biter. Grab the points, play on the Bears. Good luck…Larry |
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11-19-17 | Rams +2.5 v. Vikings | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 1 m | Show | |
My 9* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on the LA Rams (1:00 EST). The Vikes have now won five in a row, coming out of their bye and getting the better of the Redskins last week. LA also comes in on top form, with wins over the Jags, Cards, Giants and Texans. Last week the Rams posted the 33-7 victory over Houston. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead a dynamic offense, while the LA defense has been better than orginally advertised. Minnesota has Case Keenum under center now and he so far has 11 TD’s and five INT’s. Keenum has thrown at least one INT in four straight games and he had two in last week’s 38-30 win over Washington. I’ll point out that LA is already 3-1 ATS on the road this year and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 “dome” games, while Minnesota is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 35 points or more in its previous contest. Ultimately I think that LA’s depth on the offensive side of the ball will win the day over the Vikes league leading defensive unit. Grab the points, play on the Rams. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Long Beach State v. Oregon State -12 | Top | 81-89 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 2 m | Show |
My 10* LEGEND is on Oregon State (11:00 EST). The 2-0 Long Beach State 49ers are set to square off against the 1-1 Oregon State Beavers on Saturday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Beavers. LBSU comes in off a 95-70 win over San Francisco, dominating the glass by a 51-28 margin. There is some room to read between the lines though, as the 49ers would turn the ball over 21 times. Bryan Alberts led the charge with 18 points in that one, while Barry Ogalue had 15 points and eight boards. The Beavers are looking to bounce back here after a 75-66 defeat at the hands of the Wyoming Cowboys. Oregon State was a 7.5 points favorite in that one. Clearly the Beavers can’t be happy with their performance. Oregon State just couldn’t get anything to fall that night, hitting only 40 percent from the floor and going just 4 of 20 from range. Tres Tinkle was a standout with 20 points and 14 boards, while Drew Eubanks added 18 points as well. I’ll point out that LBSU is just 1-2 ATS in its last three after scoring 94 points or more, while Oregon State is 2-1 ATS in its last three afte rbeing held to 68 points or less in its prevoius contest. LBSU’s sloppy play catches up to it here in my opinion, as the Beavers look to make amends after their poor performance against the Cowboys. I’m expecting a rout, lay the points with confidence. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Celtics v. Hawks +6.5 | Top | 110-99 | Loss | -108 | 26 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Atlanta Hawks (7:35 EST). Is Boston ever going to lose again? The Celtics come to Atlanta on the heels of a 14-game win streak, including having just knocked off the defending champs at home in an impressive 92-88 victory on Thursday. I believe the C’s do finally have a letdown here though as I look for the hungry Hawks to take this one right down to the wire. The Hawks come in with momentum/confidence as well after smashing the Kings 126-80 in their most recent action, the team’s largest margin of victory of all time. Atlanta would go on to record 40 assists, which was the most in the league since December 15th, 2016 when the Warriors posted 41. "Right now we have (one of) the worst record in the NBA, so any win is a good win and we'll take it," Atlanta forward Taurean Prince assessed. Note that this is a revenge game for the Hawks as well after the Celtics won 110-107 back on November 6th. I’m expecting Atlanta to push the pace of this one and to not go down without a fight. Grab the points, play on the Hawks. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Blackhawks v. Penguins -147 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -147 | 25 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Pittsburgh Penguins (7:05 EST). No need to overthink this one. Chicago annihilated the Penguins 10-1 on October 5th. It was the second game in as many nights for the Pens and it was the Hawks home opener. The night before Pittsburgh won in OT against the Blues in its opener. The Pens come in on top form, winning two in a row and going 3-1-1 in their last five. Since Oct. 29th Pittsburgh has allowed 23 goals over eight games, which works out to just 2.9 per contest. Note that Chicago is just 2-4 (-3.3 units) this year after a win by two goals or more, while Pittsburgh is already 7-2 (+4.8 units) this season against clubs with losing records. For all the reasons listed above, play on the Penguins. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Connecticut v. Boston College -21.5 | Top | 16-39 | Win | 100 | 76 h 38 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE MONTH is on Boston College (7:00 EST). The Eagles had their three-game win streak snapped in a tight 17-14 setack at home to NC State last Saturday, while UConn enters off a third straight setback, getting spanked 49-24 at No. 12 UCF last Saturday. If recent history is any precedence, then the Eagles have to be liking their chances today as they have in fact won the last five in this series, including a 30-0 victory at home last November 19th. BC needs just one more win to become bowl eligible, so it won’t be leaving anything to chance this evening. The Eagles average 23.3 PPG and concede 24. QB Anthony Brown has 1,367 yards, 11 TD’s and nine INT’s, while RB Jon Hillman has 441 yards and three scores as well. The Huskies average 24.8 PPG and concede 39.4 QB Bryant Shirreffs has 2,287 passing yards, 14 TD’s and five INT’s. I’ll point out though that BC is 4-0-1 ATS in its last five after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while UConn is a poor 5-22-2 ATS in its last 29 non-conference contests. BC is good defensively and it won’t be lacking for motivation tonight. I’m expecting another rout from start to finish. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Illinois +41 v. Ohio State | 14-52 | Win | 100 | 72 h 20 m | Show | |
My 9* LAS VEGAS INSIDER is on Illinois (3:30 EST). The 2-8 Fighting Illini are in Ohio to take the 8-2 Buckeyes and while I’m obviously not expecting an upset today, I do definitely feel this is a few too many points to be giving up. The Illini come in off a 24-14 loss to Indiana, while Ohio State bounced back from a setback to Iowa to smash Michigan State 48-3 at home. Note that when these teams played last year, not surprisingly it was Ohio State which scored the 28-3 victory. Illinois QB Jeff George Jr. has 1,273 passing yards, seven TD’s and ten INT’s. Last week he went for 261 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. Ohio State QB JT Barrett looked a lot better last week, but he still threw two INT’s. Barrett has 2,564 passing yards and 30 TD’s this year. I’ll point out though that Illinois is 2-0 ATS in its last two as an underdog of 31 points or more, while Ohio State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven as a favorite of 31 points or more. I think this line is an over-reaction to last week’s annihilation of the Spartans. Clearly the Buckeyes are the better team, but Illinois has been competitve in most games this year and it’s defense is a strong point. Grab the points, play on the Illini. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Kentucky +21.5 v. Georgia | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 9 m | Show | |
My 8* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on Kentucky (3:30 EST). The 7-3 Kentucky Wildcats are at No. 7 Georgia to take on the 9-1 Bulldogs on Saturday afternoon and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Georgia was crushed 40-17 by Auburn last week and I think it’ll have a predictable letdown here. Kentucky enters with a ton of momentum, posting the 44-21 road win over Vanderbilt last Saturday. Note that this is a revenge game for the Wildcats as well after Georgia edged Kentucky 27-24 on the road last year. Last week Kentucky posted 427 total yards and forced four INTS’s and held the Commodores to just 60 yards rushing on 20 carries. Wildcats’ QB Stephen Johnson was 13 of 17 for 195 yards and was complimented by RB Ben Snell Jr. who has 116 yards and three TD’s. Note that Kentucky has been exceptional against the run this year, holding opponents to just 121.9 YPG thus far. Georgia RB Nick Chubb was held to 27 yards on 11 carries last week. QB Jake From was 13 of 28 for 184 yards and one meaningless TD at the end of the game. I’ll point out that Kentucky is 2-0 ATS in its last two as a road dog of 21.5 points or more, while Georgia is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range. I like the Wildcats to take advantage of a Bulldogs team still dwelling on last week’s loss and while I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do absolutely expect this one to be a lot closer than what the oddsmaker’s are leading us to believe. Grab the points, play on Kentucky. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Iowa State v. Baylor +9.5 | 23-13 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 10 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on Baylor (2:30 EST). Iowa State became bowl eligible and has since dropped two straight. The Cyclones will look to get back on track here, but I think that the home side offers great value in an upset role. The Cyclones are now also officially out of contention for the Big 12 title after falling to Oklahoma State last weekend. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Iowa State QB Kyle Kempt left at halftime with an injury last week, forcing Zeb Noland into action and while the backup looked good in the 49-42 defeat in his limited time, starting on the road even at lowly Baylor is a tall order and a quick turnaround. After beating Kansas, the Bears fell 38-24 to Texas Tech last Saturday. QB Charlie Brewer was 43 of 63 for 417 yards, three TD’s and one INT. I like Brewer to carry over his momentum here in front of the home town crowd. Note that Iowa State is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on field turf, while Baylor is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 as an underdog. The Bears are terrible, but Brewer has been a bright spot. I like the gun-slinger to keep his team in this one late, so grab as many points as you can. Good luck…Larry |
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11-18-17 | Virginia +19 v. Miami-FL | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 69 h 41 m | Show | |
My 8* Situational Stunner is on Virgnia (12:00 EST). Virginia is bowl eligible already, but it comes off its third loss in its last four games, falling 38-21 at Louisville last weekend. Miami can now feel the pressure as it’s still unbeaten after steamrolling Notre Dame 41-8 last week. Note that this is a revenge game for Virginia as well, as Miami has taken the last two, including 34-14 on the road on November 12, 2016. The Cavs rank 47th in the country in passing offense with an average of 251.8 YPG. Overall the team ranks 85th in scoring with 25.8 PPG, while ranked 67th on the defensive side by conceding 26.6 points. QB Kurt Benkert has 2,492 yards, 21 TD’s and just seven INT’s. RB Olamide Zaccheaus has caught 70 passes for 727 yards, four TD’s and had added 22 carries for 153 yards and another score on the ground. Miami averages 32.6 PPG, while conceding just 16.6. QB Malik Rosier has 2,410 yards, 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. RB Travis Homer has 758 yards and six scores on the ground. I’ll point out though that Virginia is 3-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records and 16-9 ATS in its last 25 when playing the role of underdog. I think the Hurricanes manage the win, but I like Virginia to keep this one much more interesting than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | Alabama State +32 v. Oregon | 56-114 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 8 m | Show | |
My 8* SItuational Stunner is on Alabama State (11:00 EST). The 0-3 Alabama State Hornets play their fourth straight road game here. So far they’ve averaged 63 PPG, while conceding 94. Ed Jones has been a stand out with an average of 10.7 points and four rebounds per game, while Reginald Gee averages 10.3 points and four boards. The Ducks average 85 PPG and concede 60.5 thus far. Troy Brown has averaged 17.5 points and three assists, while Paul White has added 16 points and six boards. Of course I’m not calling for an outright upset here. Note that Oregon hasn’t lost a home game since January of 2015. But with a series of “cream puffs” to open the year, I think the Ducks get caught looking past their lowly opponent today. This is great experience for the Hornets, who can focus on conference play after a tough non-conference schedule. I like Alabama State to keep this relatively interesting until the final ten minutes or so. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | UNLV +2 v. New Mexico | Top | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 111 h 32 m | Show |
My 10* NON-CONF GAME OF THE YEAR is on UNLV (9:30 EST). UNLV will need to win its final two games of the year to become bowl eligible. With a date against 2-8 Nevada next weekend, the Runnin’ Rebels have a very real shot at actually reaching the six win plateau with a big effort today. New Mexico needed to win last week to keep its bowl hopes alive, but it instead got annihilated 55-14 by Texas A&M. With nothing left to play for, we expect the Lobos to come in disinterested and flat-footed this week. The Rebels average 29.2 PPG and allow 32.3. QB Armani Rodgers has 1,100 yards, five TD’s and five INT’s, while also adding 538 yards on the ground and another sixscores. Johnny Stanton has 724 yards passing, four TD’s and two INT’s threw the air and 96 yards plus two major scores on the ground. The Lobos average 22.3 PPG and concede 30.9 QB Lamar Jordan has 593 yards passing along with three TD’s and five INT’s. I’ll point out though that the Runnin Rebels are 4-0 ATS in their last four following an ATS loss, while the Lobos are 0-4 ATS in their last four after posting less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. I like the “hungrier” team to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on UNLV. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | Heat +4.5 v. Wizards | Top | 91-88 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the Miami Heat (7:05 EST). This is an immediate revenge scenario for the Heat after the Wizards took the first game of this home and home set 102-93 at South Beach on Wednesday. So far Miami averages 101.3 PPG, while conceding 103. Big man Hassan Whiteside contributes 15.7 points, plus 13.9 boards per game, while Dion Waiters adds 16.6 per contest. Washington averages 110.7 PPG and concedes 105. John Wall averages 20.8 points and 9.4 assists per game, while Bradley Beal contribues 23.9. The Heat though have responded well in this spot for bettors, going 19-10 ATS in their last 29 off an upset losss as a favorite, while also going 24-10 ATS in their last 34 when trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. Conversely, this is a position in which the Wizards have really struggled in, going 12-16 ATS in their last 28 off an upset win as an underdog (including 0-2 ATS this year.) With a tough road trip starting in Toronto on Sunday, I think the home side also gets caught looking ahead here. While I wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Heat. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | Elon -13 v. Florida International | 95-87 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 39 m | Show | |
My 8* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Elon (6:30 EST). The 1-1 FIU Panthers are getting ready to battle the 1-2 Elon Phoenix on Friday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Phoenix. This non-conference game is part of the Black and Gold Shootout. When these teams played last year, it was Elon that won 84-81 in OT. Last year FIU went just 7-24. In their last game the Panthers lost 70-64 in OT to Stetson. FIU was only able to shoot 37.9 percent from the floor, led by Eric Lockett with 19 points. The Panthers also committed 16 turnovers. Elon fell 76-67 to Furman in its latest action. The Phoenix shot 44.5 percent from the floor, but only 20.8 percent from range. They also committed 16 turnovers. Keep your eyes on Tyler Seibring, who had 15 points in the setback. While only two players average double figures in points, the Phoenix still have a much deeper/talented lineup overall than FIU, wiith eight players averaging at least 5.7 PPG. Additionally I’ll point out that FIU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five neutral site games, while Elon is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss. Elon’s already played Duke and it’s clearly the better overall team. I look for the Phoenix to bounce back here and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. This line could be a lot higher and I think the oddsmakers have made a mistake. Good luck…Larry |
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11-17-17 | Northeastern v. Stanford -10 | Top | 59-73 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on Stanford (6:00 EST). The 2-0 Northeastern Huskies are in Stanford to take on the 2-1 Cardinal and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Northeastern comes in off an 83-49 win over Wentworth, while Stanford fell 67-61 at home to lowly Eastern Washington on Tuesday. The Huskies have defeated two suspect opponents in Boston University (65-59) and Divsion 2 Wentworth (83-49.) Thomas Murphy has been a bright spot, averaging 11.5 points over his first two games. Northeastern finished just 15-16 last year and it was picked to finish sixth in the ten team CAA. Clearly Stanford will be looking to take advantage here, something it failed miserably in doing against Eastern Washington. The Cardinal couldn’t get anything to drop, shooting a poor 33 percent from the field, including just 2 of 16 from range. Reid Travis had 20 points in the losing effort. Travis has now scored at least 20 points in each of Stanford’s three games. I’ll point out though that Northeastern is just 1-3 ATS in its last four non-conference games, while Stanford is 6-4 ATS in its last ten after failing to cover the spead in three or more consecutive contests. The Huskies’ competition has been pathetic to this point, but now they face a determined Cardinal side that’s looking for a big rebound effort after such a terrible performance. Stanford is deeper, more talented and experienced and I expect it to easily pull away down the stretch. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Titans v. Steelers -7 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 56 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on the PIttsburgh Steelers (8:25 EST). The 6-3 Tennessee Titans are in Pittsburgh to take on the 7-2 Steelers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. It wasn’t pretty, but the Steelers battled tough and scored the 20-17 win in Indianpolis last weekend, while the Titans also rallied to post the 24-20 win at home over the Bengals. Both teams are on fire, but I don’t think that the home field advantage factor can be overlooked in this case. Both teams come in off victories, but neither looked overly impressive. Each will be looking for a bounce back performance, but the trends support the home side in this spot, as note that Tennessee is a poor 1-4 ATS in its last eight after two or more consecutive SU victories (including 0-2 already this year) and just 6-14 ATS in its last 20 on the road (including only 1-3 ATS this season), while Pittsburgh is 11-6 ATS its last 17 at home (including 2-1 ATS this year) and 9-6 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records (including 2-0 ATS this season.) Tennessee has been great in stopping the run, ranked seventh, but horrible against the pass, ranked 28th. And that doesn’t bode well facing big Ben Roethlisberger, who will be out to atone for last week’s near disaster. The Pittsburgh defense though has been superb, ranked second in the NFL in overall yards given up per game (284.4) The Steelers’ defense has been remarkable of late, allowing 20 or less points in four straight games. I think the Titans have a letdown on the short week in this tough atmosphere and I look for the veteran Roethlisberger to take full advantage. Lay the points, play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Warriors -7 v. Celtics | Top | 88-92 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Golden State Wariors (8:05 EST). Warriors’ head coach Steve Kerr said two weeks ago that the Celtics were “the team of the future in the Eastern Conference.” Clearly Golden State has had this one circled on its calendar for a while now and while some may think the Celtics actually have a shot in this game, I definitely do not. Golden State has won seven straight, including a 110-100 win over Orlando on Monday. Boston has won 13 straight, most recently a 109-102 victory on the road in Brooklyn. The Warriors average 119.6 PPG and concede 107.7. Kevin Durant averages 24.8 points, 7.5 boards and 5.2 assists per game, while Stephen Curry posts 25.2 points, plust 6.7 assists per contest. The Celtics average 102.7 PPG and concede 94.5. Kyrie Irving leads the way with 20.6 points and 5.2 assists per game, while Jaylen Brown contributes 14.7 points and 6.7 boards. The Warriors are a unique team, as they can damage you in so many ways offensively. If you want to get into a “run and gun shootout,” then they have no problems with that. If you want to play a slower-paced game and run half court sets while on offense, they have no issues with that either. They hurt you from 3-point land, in the paint and also in transition. The Celtics have been amazing early, but I think they’re in for a rude awakening tonight. Lay the points, play on Golden State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Flyers v. Jets -130 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 26 h 26 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Winnipeg Jets (8:05 EST). Philadelphia looks primed for another letdown here in my opinion after dropping a 3-0 decision at Minnesota last time out, while I expect Winnipeg to build off its 4-1 home win over Arizona. After a huge start to the season, the Flyers predictably have come crashing back down to Earth. After leading the league in scoring in the early going, Philadelphia is now ranked 21st by averaging 2.76 GPG. The Flyers have remained solid defensively though, conceding 2.61. Goaltneder Brian Elliot is now 6-6 with a 2.59 GAA. The Jets are ranked tenth in the league in scoring, averaging 3.29 GPG, while ranked 11th on the defensive end in conceding 2.76 per contest. Goaltender Steve Mason has struggled to open the year, but he won’t be lacking in motivation in facing his former team. I’ll point out as well that Philadelphia is just 5-9 (-5.6 units) in non-conference games this season, while Winnipeg is 5-3 (+1.9 units) after scoring four goals or more in its previous contest. Winnipeg has allowed two goals or less in six of its last eight, while Philadelpia has been shutout in three of its last six outings. This is great value, play on the Jets. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Buffalo v. Ball State +17.5 | Top | 40-24 | Win | 100 | 84 h 11 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Ball State (7:00 EST). Buffalo will need to win its final two games to become bowl eligible. A date against the lowly 2-8 Ball State Cardinals is just what the doctor ordered this week. However with a date against 8-2 Ohio in the season finale, the Bulls’ chances of actually reaching the six win plateau this year are extremely small. The Bobcats will be fighting until the final whistle as they try to capture the league crown. With that sad fact already in the front of their brains, I do think that the Bulls are set up for a small letdown this weekend. Buffalo averages 27.3 PPG and concedes 25 PPG. QB Tyree Jackson has 1,452 yards, six TD’s and two INT’s, while also adding another 220 on the ground and four more major scores. Ball State averages 18.4 PPG and concedes 42. QB Riley Neal has 658 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s, while also rushing for another 67. Caleb Huntley has been a strong in the ground attack with 703 yards and three TD’s. I’ll point out though that Buffalo has struggled in this spot for bettors for a while now, going just 2-4 ATS n its last six off a win against a conference rival. And note, as horrible as Ball State has been, it’s actually 2-1 ATS in its last three as an underdog in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I like the home side to keep this one interesting. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-16-17 | Indiana State v. Auburn -7.5 | Top | 64-83 | Win | 100 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* Weekly Wipeout Winner is on Auburn (11:30 AM EST). The 1-0 Indiana State Sycamores are in Auburn to take on the 1-0 Tigers on Thursday morning and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Tigers. Indiana State looks ready for a letdown here in my opinion after its big opening night win over Indiana. Brenton Scott was a standout in the upset with 24 points. Indiana State relied heavily on the 3-ball last year (34.6 percent of its points from range), which doesn’t bode well against this Auburn defense which is out for some redemption. The Tigers can score as well, as last year they averaged 80.4 PPG. In their win over Norfolk State, Auburn put up 102 points. Bryce Brown led the way with 31 points. While the 102 points was impressive, the 74 given up were not. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a much more concerted effort from the Tigers on the defensive end this evening. Additionally I’ll point out that Indiana State is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven following an ATS win, while Auburn is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I look for the Tigers to continue their hot offensive play and to fine tune their defensive unit in this favorable matchup. Lay the points with confidence, play on Auburn. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-17 | 76ers v. Lakers OVER 219.5 | Top | 115-109 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the over 76ers/Lakers (10:35 EST). Maybe surprisingly, neither team has been playing to many high-scoring affairs of late. I think that changes tonight in a big way though. The 76ers broke a two-game slide with a win over the Clippers on Monday, while the Lakers enter off a 100-93 victory over Phoenix on Monday. Philadelphia averages 107.9 PPG and concedes 109.5 Big man Joel Embiid leads the team with 20.9 points, plus 10.8 boards per contest. WIth Jerryd Bayless, Robert Covington, Daro Saric, JJ Redick and Ben Simmons, the 76ers’ future is bright. LA averages 103.3 PPG and concedes 105.9. Brook Lopez has been big this year, contributing 15.3 points, plus 4.8 boards per game. With Jordan Clarkson, Brandon Ingram, Lonzo Ball, Julius Randle and Kyle Kuszma, the Lakers future also looks pretty good. I’ll point out that the 76ers have seen the total go over the number in five of six this year following a non-conference game, while the Lakers have seen the total eclipse the posted number in both times this season following a divisional contest. I expect these two young and talented teams to push the pace from start to finish and for this total to indeed soar above the posted number once the final horn blares. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-17 | Bruins v. Ducks -121 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 28 h 10 m | Show |
My 10* Situational Stunner is on the Anaheim Ducks (10:05 EST). Both teams come in on losing streaks. Boston has lost three straight, including a home and home set with Toronto most recently. After three days off, the Bruins now embark on a tough Western swing, also in LA tomorrow night, followed by contests at San Jose and then back over to the East Coast for a difficult matchup with the Devils. Anaheim has lost five of its last six, most recently a 2-1 setback at home to Tampa Bay. But with three whole nights off after this contest, before a game at home against the Panthers, it’s now or never for the Ducks to get off the schneid. These teams are in fact pretty evenly matched right now. They’re getting inconsistent play across the board. In a situation like this, I always tend to side with the home team. But I’ll point out, Boston is in fact just 21-23 (-8 units) in its last 44 after a loss by two goals or more in its previous contest, while Anaheim is 23-15 (+4.9 units) in its last 38 after playing three consecutive home games. All things considered, I think this is a great price. Play on the Ducks. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-17 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois -9.5 | Top | 31-35 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 25 m | Show |
My 10* MAC GAME OF THE MONTH is on Northern Illinois (7:00 EST). Northern Illinois is now 7-3 after last week’s 63-17 annihilation of Ball State. The Huskies sit just a game back of Toledo in the West Division of the MAC and they’re tied with the Rockets at 5-1 in Conference play. Western Michigan on the other hand looks primed for an immediate letdown in my opinion after posting its sixth win of the year in last week’s 48-20 win over Kent. Note that this is a revenge game for Northern Illinois as well after WMU took this game at home 45-30 last season. The Broncos average 36.6 points and concede 27.6. Jarvion Franklin has 1,061 rushing yards and ten TD’s this year and had 191 yards and a major score against the Golden Flashes last week. WMU is one of the best rushing teams in the nation, but that unfortunately plays right into the strength of the Huskies defense, which is tenth against the run in the nation. Northern Illinois averages 30.3 PPG, while conceding just 18.8 PPG on the defensive side. I’ll point out as well that WMU is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after scoring 40 points or more in its previous contest, while Northern Illinois is 13-5-2 ATS in its last 20 following a SU win over more than 20 points. The Broncos are going back to a bowl, which is mission accomplished for a team which lost a lot from last year’s squad that went undefeated until its bowl game. I like the Huskies to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and I expect WMU to throw in the white towel early. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-15-17 | UC-Santa Barbara v. Pittsburgh -5.5 | Top | 62-70 | Win | 100 | 25 h 5 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Pittsburgh (7:00 EST). The 1-0 Cal Santa Barbara Gauchos are at Pittsburgh to take on the 0-2 Panthers on Wednesday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. The Panthers are coming off loss to Navy and Montana, while the Gauchos managed a win over North Dakota State last Saturday. Cal Santa Barbara was 6-22 last year, but it looked decent in its 86-66 victory over North Dakota State. Max Heidegger had 33 points, including hitting eight from range. Pittsburgh pretty much features an entirely new team this year, a squad which nearly posted its first win of the campaign, but it would ultimately succumb 83-78 in overtime to the Grizzlies. The loss snapped Pittsburgh’s 20 game win streak at home: “I don’t think about [the fan support for the team],” head coach Kevin Stallings assured. “I support my team. I’m just worried about making my team better. We have had to start over, so that’s a little bit of what we are dealing with. We have some good players who are going to grow into very good players. There are going to be some growing pains along the way.” I’ll point out though that UC Santa Barbara is just 7-14 ATS in its last 21 following a non-conference game, while Pittsburgh is is 3-1 ATS in its last four after back-to-back SU setbacks. Clearly this game means a lot to the Panthers. Crowd support has not been good to open the campaign, but a convincing win tonight would go a long way in starting to turn that trend around. I look for the home side to lay it all on the line and to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-17 | Spurs -6 v. Mavs | Top | 97-91 | Push | 0 | 25 h 20 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the San Antonio Spurs (8:35 EST). The Spurs are rolling as they come in having won four of their last five, most recently smashing the Bulls 133-94 at home on Saturday. The Mavs are moving in the opposite direction, as they’ve lost two in a row and eight of their last nine after losing 112-99 at Oklahoma City on Sunday night. So far San Antonio averages 103 PPG and allows 99.6. Big man LaMarcus Aldridge is leading the nightly charge with 21.8 points and 8.5 boards per game, while Pau Gasol averages 10.9 points and 8.1 boards per game. Dallas averages 99.5 PPG and concedes 107.7. Harrison Barnes tops all players with 19 points and 7.1 boards per game, while rookie Dennis Smith Jr. averages 14.8 points and 4.9 assists per game. I’ll point out that the Spurs are 4-1 ATS in their last five road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, while Dallas is a horrible 1-10 ATS in its last 11 when playing on one days rest. Greg Popovich has his team firing on all cylinders again despite injuries to key players. That doesn’t bode well for this young Mavs side which is struggling with consistency across the board. All signs point to a rout. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-17 | Capitals v. Predators -133 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM in the Nashville Predators (8:05 EST). Both teams come in off extra frames victories, as Washignton won 2-1 in a shootout over Edmonton, while Nashville enters off a 5-4 OT victory over Pittsburgh. Washington has won five of its last six games, but is still ranked 19th in scoring by averaging 2.83 GPG. The Capitals have also been below average defensively in conceding 2.94 GPG. Goatlender Braden Holtby is 10-3 with a 2.35 GAA on the year. Nashville averages 2.75 GPG and concdeds 2.81. Goaltender Pekka Rinne is 8-4 with a 2.23 GAA. I’ll point out though that Washington is just 2-4 (-2.6 units) in its last six following a shootout victory in which it held its opponent to one goal or less in the win, while Nashville is already 4-1 (+3.4 units) this season after scoring four goals or more in its previous game. Both teams have been on a roll of late, but I don’t think that the home ice advantage can be overlooked in this particular matchup. I also like Rinne to outduel Holtby and for Nashville to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-17 | Ohio v. Akron +13 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on Akron (7:00 EST). The 8-2 Ohio Bobcats are in Akron to take on the 5-5 Zips and while I’ll stop short in calling for an outright upset, I do definitely feel that the desperate home side will keep this one a lot more competitive than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Ohio comes in off a 38-10 win over Toledo, while Akron lost 24-14 to Miami Ohio. Last year these two teams played to a very tight decision, with the Bobcats holding on for the eventual 9-3 victory from Ohio. Bobcats’ QB Nathan Rourke was just seven of 15 for 139 yards, a TD and a pick last week, but he did add 115 yards rushing. In all Ohio racked up 393 rushing yards last week. Akron will be out to atone for it’s effort last Saturday, producing just 273 total yards of offense against the Redhawks. QB Kato Nelson was 19 of 38 for 218 yards and a TD. I’ll point out though that Ohio is 0-2 ATS in its last two as a road favorite in the 10.5 to 14 points range, while Akron is 2-1 ATS this year against teams with winning records. The Zips are running out of chances and need one more win to become bowl eligible. Akron won’t be lacking in motivation today. Ohio has two cream puffs to end the season, with a date at Buffalo next weekend, so it could be caught looking ahead as well. Outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to this one being decided late. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-14-17 | Wright State v. Miami-OH +2 | Top | 67-73 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
My 10* ODDSMAKER’S ERROR is on Miami Ohio (7:00 EST). The 0-1 Wright State Raiders are at Miami Ohio to take on the 1-0 Redhawks and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Wright State most recently lost 84-80 to Loyola Chicago, while the Redhawks managed to nudge past Fordham 55-54 in their season opener. Note that this is a revenge game for Miami Ohio after Wright State beat it 89-87 last year. Last year Wright State averaged 77 points per game and conceded 72.4. The Blue Raiders let Loyola Chicago hit 55 percent from the floor. Grant Benzinger was a standout with 16 points. Miami Ohio averaged 70.3 PPG last season and conceded 74.5. While only shooting 33 percent from the field in their opening victory, the Redhawks would go on to win the rebound battle by a decisive 53-25 margin. Jalen Adaway had 15 points and 14 boards. Logan McLane had ten points and 11 boards, including five offensive. The Redhawks’ smothering defensive play and the home court advantage make Miami Ohio the correct call in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-17 | North Dakota State +24 v. USC | Top | 65-75 | Win | 100 | 31 h 7 m | Show |
My 10* SITUATIONAL STUNNER is on North Dakota State (11:00 EST) The 0-1 North Dakota State Bison are ready to take the 1-0 USC Trojans at the Galen Center tonight and while I’m not actually calling for an outright upset, I do definitely believe this is too many points to be giving up here. The Bison enter off an 85-66 loss to UC Santa Barbara. Paul Miller was a bright spot with 18 points and six assists, while AJ Jacobson had ten points and two boards. After losing five of its last seven on the road, I think NDSU can catch the home side looking past it. USC has a game against Vanderbilt up next, which is another non-conference matchup of course, but clearly a much bigger challenge coming from the SEC. USC most recently beat CS Fulerton 84-42. Chimezie Metu had 18 points and ten boards. The Trojans have now won six of their last seven at home. I feel this is a great spot for the hungry Bison, as I believe that USC comes in complacent, while also looking ahead to its next game. Grab the points, play on North Dakota State. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-17 | Dolphins v. Panthers OVER 38 | Top | 21-45 | Win | 100 | 33 h 46 m | Show |
My 10* O/U PERFECT STORM is on the over Dolphins/Panthers (8:30 EST). The 4-4 Miami Dolphins are in Carolina to take on the 6-3 Panthers and for a number of different reasons, I think this one have offensive shootout written all over it. Both teams are hungry for wins. Miami is coming off consecutive losses, losing 40-0 in Baltimore, before starting QB Jay Cutler returned to go 32 of 42 for 311 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in a setback to Oakland last weekend. The defense looked decent, giving up 295 passing yards and just 84 rushing yards. Caroilna QB Cam Netwon was just 13 of 24 for 137 yards and no TD’s. He did run for 86 though and scored his first rushing TD of the year. I’ll point out that Miami has seen the total go over the number in six of its last nine games played on a grass field, while Carolina has seen the total eclipse the posted number in nine of its last 13 off a divisional contest and in 12 of its last 18 after two or more consecutive SU victories. With nothing to lose (except another game), I like Cutler and company to open up the playbook and air this one from start to finish. Carolina is on a roll and with numerous tough upcoming road games on the horizon, this is one contest the Panthers can’t afford to “look past.” I’m banking on this total sailing above this low number as the game comes down the stretch. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-17 | Kings v. Wizards OVER 208.5 | Top | 92-110 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 13 m | Show |
My 10* O/U Las Vegas Insider is on the over Kings/Wizards (7:05 EST). The Kings had their two-game win streak snapped in a 118-91 setback at New York on Saturday, while Washington picked up its second straight victory in a 113-94 win over Atlanta on Saturday night. Note that Sacramento plays with revenge here after Washington took the first game of the season series, 110-83 back on October 29th. So far the Kings average 94.8 PPG and allow 105.3. The Kings are loaded with talent, including D-Aaron Fox, Buddy Hield, Skal Labissiere, George Hill, Zach Randolph, Vince Carter and Bogdan Bogdanovic. The Wizards have had no issues scoring this year, ranked second overall with an average of 111.5 PPG. The defense though has been a major problem, ranked in the lower-half in allowing 107.1. John Wall averages 20.3 points and 9.7 assists per game, while Bradley Beal averages 24.6 points. I’ll point out that Sacramento has seen the total go over the number in four of five already this year against teams with winning records, while Washington has seen the total soar above the posted number in eight of its last 14 after playing three consecutive home games. This one has the feel of a wide open, run and gun shoot-out. Play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-13-17 | Stars +108 v. Hurricanes | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on the Dallas Stars (7:00 EST). Dallas comes in off a 5-0 home win over the Islanders and I look for it to keep that momentum roling here. Carolina enters off a crushing 4-3 OT loss at home to Chicago and I think it will stumble again. So far Dallas averages 2.94 GPG, while ranked first on the power play by converting 31.2 percent of it chances. The Stars have been decent defensively so far, allowing 2.69 GPG. Ben Bishop is now 7-4 with a 2.48 GAA on the year. Carolina averages 2.67 GPG, while allowing 2.73. Goaltender Scott Darling is 4-7 with a 2.49 GAA on the season (is 2-2 with a 2.93 GAA lifetime against Dallas.) I’ll point out as well that Dallas is 5-1 in its last six road games against a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400, while Carolina is a poor 1-4 in it last five in the third game of a 3-in-4 scenario. After a slow start, the Stars have turned things around, coming into this one having won four of their last six. The Hurricanes are struggling across the board and enter off a disheartening setback. I look for Bishop (who is 8-2 with a 1.89 ERA lifetime against Carolina) to outplay his counterpart and for the Stars to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Patriots v. Broncos +8.5 | Top | 41-16 | Loss | -135 | 103 h 6 m | Show |
My 10* GAME OF THE WEEK is on the Denver Broncos (8:30 EST). The 6-2 New England Patriots are in Denver to take on the desperate 3-5 Broncos and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. Now, I’m not suggesting to “sprinkle” a little on the money line, but I do definitely think this one will be a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The Pats come to town off their bye week, last beating the Chargers 21-13 at home. The Broncos lost their fourth straight in a 51-23 setback on the road at red hot Philadelphia last weekend. So far the Pats are seventh in the league in scoring with 27 PPG, while ranked 16th on the defensive side in conceding 22.4. QB Tom Brady has 2,541 yards, 16 TD’s and two INT’s this season. Brady though has been sacked 21 times. Mike Gillislee leads the rushing attack with 355 yards and four major scores. This is it for Denver, as another loss will almost assuredly have the team planning for next season. So far the Broncos rank 22nd in the leauge in scoring with 18.8 PPG, while ranked 25th defensively in conceding 24.8. QB Trevor Siemian has 1,669 yards with nine TD’s and ten INT’s. CJ Anderson has 482 yards and two TD’s. I’ll point out though that Denver is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 at home (including 2-1 ATS this season) and still 9-6 ATS in its last 15 as an underdog, while New England is just 3-5 ATS in its last eight as a road favorite of 7.5 to ten points. Denver’s defense remains its strength and I think it’s going to come up big at home here. The outright upset? Probably not. But all signs point to a nail-biter. I’m grabbing the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Lightning -143 v. Ducks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 18 m | Show |
My 10* Las Vegas Insider is on the Tampa Bay Lightning (8:05 EST). The Lightning come in on fire, they’ve won three in a row, most recently a 5-2 win at LA. Anaheim enters off a 4-1 home victory over Vancouver. Tampa opened its Western trip with a victroy at San Jose. So far the Lightning own the No. 1 offense in the league, averaging 4.00 GPG, while ranked sixth on the defensive end in conceding just 2.59. Lightning goaltender Andrei Vasilevskly is 12-2 with a 2.41 GAA, including 5-1 with a 2.35 GAA on the road. The Ducks average only 2.88 GPG, while conceding 2.94. Starting goaltender Ryan Miller was injured in the win over Vanvouver and he’s quesitonable for this one. John Gibson is already out with concussion. If Miller can’t go, it’ll be Reto Berra, who is 2-2 with a 2.00 GAA against Tampa lifetime. I’ll point out though that the Lightning are 8-2 in their last ten against clubs with losing records, while Anaheim is 2-8 in its last ten following a victory. I like Tampa to continue its hot play and to take advantage of Anaheim’s issue in the crease. Lay the price. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Princeton +9.5 v. Butler | Top | 75-85 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 56 m | Show |
My 10* PERFECT STORM is on Princeton (6:00 EST). Butler beat Kennesaw State 82-64 on Friday, but this will be the first game of the year for Princeton. Both teams played in the NCAA Tournament last year and each will be expecting to return this season as well. The Tigers faced Notre Dame in the opening round and they’d unfortnately drop a hard-fought 60-58 battle. Butler made it to the Sweet 16 before bowing out to eventual champion North Carolina. Princeton was undefeated in Ivy League action last year and it’s favored to win the conference again this season. Keep your eyes on Tigers’ junior guard Devin Cannady, who averaged 13.4 points and 3.6 boards last year, but who will be playing a much bigger role this season. There’s some room to read between the lines in Butler’s win on Friday, as note that it was just six of 25 from range and it also missed 11 of 23 free throws. The Ivy League is battle tested and Princeton has plenty of veteran experience and overall talent. I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do definitely expect the Tigers to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. Grab the points, play on Princeton. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Rockets v. Pacers +3.5 | Top | 118-95 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
My 10* Oddsmaker’s Error is on Indiana (6:00 EST). Houston crushed the Grizzlies 111-96 just last night and suffice it to say, I’m expecting a letdown here finally from the Rockets as they transition for this Eastern Conference contest. Conversely, Indiana looks ready to build off its 105-87 win over the Bulls on Friday to snap a four-game slide. Houston averages 110.5 PPG and concedes 104.1 .James Harden leads the team with 29.9 points and 4.9 boards per game. Indiana averages 109 PPG and concedes 108.4 Victor Oladipo had 25 points, six boards and six assists against the Bulls. I’ll point out though that Houston is just 2-3 ATS this year against teams with losing records and interestingly, just 1-3 ATS against poor defensive teams which allow 106 plus points per contest, while Indiana is 20-14 ATS in its last 34 after allowing 90 points or less and already 3-2 ATS in front of the home town crowd this season. I think “the road” catches up to Harden and company today and the rested/focused Pacers at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Texans v. Rams -11 | 7-33 | Win | 100 | 99 h 42 m | Show | |
My 8* Weekend Wipeout Winner is on the LA Rams (4:05 EST). The 3-5 Houston Texans are in LA to take on the 6-2 Rams and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the home side. LA comes in off three straight wins, while the Texans are reeling after two straight losses. Houston staring QB DeShaun Watson was lost to injury and backup Tom Savage was just 19 of 44 for 219 yards and one TD in the 20-14 loss to the Colts. In all the Texans were outgained 371 to 288. LA seems on a mission now that it’s left St. Louis. LA is ranked third in total offense this year with 382.1 YPG. In fact, Jared Goff and Todd Gurley lead the league’s No. 1 scoring offense with 32.9 PPG. Last week Goff had four TD’s in the win over the Giants. Gurley meanwhile has a league-high ten major scores. I’ll point out as well that Houston is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven road games against teams with a winning home record, while LA is 3-1 ATS in its last four after a three game unbeaten streak. In the two games since Savage took over as QB, the Texans have managed seven and 14 points total in those two contests. I like Goff to continue his hot play and for the Rams’ defensive unit to come up big against the “gassed” Texans offense. Lay the points. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Vikings v. Redskins +1.5 | 38-30 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 25 m | Show | |
My 8* NFL Week 10 Las Vegas Insider is on the Was Redskins at 1:00 ET. The Vikings are sitting pretty in the NFC North at 6-2, as only the Lions are above .500 (5-4) in the division. They are also off a bye week plus come into this contest on a four-game winning streak. However, let's take a closer look at those four wins. First came the Bears (now 3-5) in Mitch Trubisky’s first start, then the Packers in a game in which Aaron Rodgers got KO’d early. Up next were the slumping Ravens (in the midst of losing four of five games), and then win-less Browns in London (Cleveland is 0-8 and 1-23 since the start of 2016). Let's just say, not exactly a Murderer's Row! The Redskins are still right in the mix for one of two NFC wild card spots, after their timely 17-14 win last Sunday in Seattle. QB Kirk Cousins is completing 67.9% with 13 TDs and four INTs, for a QB rating of 102.0. That comes on the heels of him completing 68.3% with a 54-23 TD-to-INT ratio, with QB ratings of 101.6 and 97.2. The ONLY organization that thinks he's not a top-flight QB in the NFL is the Redskins. Maybe they would prefer Minnesota's Case Keenum. I prefer Cousins and the Redskins in this one. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Packers v. Bears OVER 38 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 95 h 29 m | Show | |
My 9* SUPER TOTAL is the over Packers/Bears (1:00 EST). The 4-4 Green Bay Packers are in Chicago to take on the 3-5 Bears and for a number of different reasons, I think this one will sneak above this extremely low total once it’s all said and done. Green Bay comes in off its second straight loss after losing QB Aaron Rodgers for the season to injury, falling 30-17 at home to Detroit, while Chicago comes in off a 20-12 setback at home to the Saints in Week 8. When these teams played last year, it was the Packers that scored the 35-14 victory. Brett Hundley is learning on the fly. Last week he had 245 yards and no TD’s for the Pack. He did rush one in though. RB Aaron Jones also had a sub-par game and he’ll have his hands full against the Bears’ tough defense. The Packers had a tough time stopping the arial assault of Matt Stafford though, which is music to Mitch Trubisky’s ears. Chicago went into its bye week with a 20-12 loss to New Orleans. Trubisky was just 14 of 32 for 164 yards with no TD’s and an INT. The Bears looked sharp defensively, holding Drew Brees to zero TD passes. I’ll point out though that Green Bay has seen the total go over the number in four of its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Chicago has seen the total soar above the posted number in three of its last four as a favorite. These are two QB’s eager for a big performance and everything points to these coaches taking the “training wheels” of this weekend. This number is just a little low, play the over. Good luck…Larry |
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11-12-17 | Steelers -10 v. Colts | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 28 m | Show | |
My 9* PERFECT STORM is on the Pittsburgh Steelers (1:00 EST). The 6-2 Pittsburgh Steelers are in Indianapolis to take on the 3-6 Colts and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. Pittsburgh posted a 20-15 road win over Detroit in its latest action, while Indianapolis definitely looks primed for a letdown here after its shcoking 20-13 victory at Houston last Sunday. The Steelers have to be feeling pretty confident here, because when these teams met last year it was Pittsburgh that won easily 28-7, with QB Ben Roethlisberger throwing three TD’s, while RB Le’Veon Bell had 120 yards. Roethlisberger had 317 yards in the victory over the Detroit. Bell had 75 yards on 25 carries. The Steelers uncharacteristically gave up 482 yards to the Lions, but they came up clutch in the most important moments, holding Detroit to 0 for 5 in the red zone. Pittsburgh enters out of its bye having won three straight. Indianpolis QB Jacoby Brissett was 20 of 30 for 307 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week, while RB Frank Gore had 51 rushing yards on 17 carries. The Colts’ defense looked sharp, holding the Texans to 288 total yards. I’m not reading too much into the one decent performance though. Houston had just lost a 41-38 game against the Seahawks on the road and clearly it looked out of gas last week. Indianapolis snapped a three game slide, but remains in last place in the AFC South. Additionally I’ll point out that the Steelers are 5-1 ATS in their last six after posing less than 90 rushing yards in their previous game, while the Colts a horrible 1-9-1 ATS in theit last 11 following a SU victory. Indianapolis owns the league’s worst defense, allowing an average of 29 PPG. And that’s music to a well rested “Big Ben” and company. I’m expecting a rout from start to finish. Play on the Steelers. Good luck…Larry |
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