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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-14-19 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 47 | 18-17 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Iowa/Iowa State under- Brock Purdy is a good quarterback for Iowa State, but he lacks weapons around him. Iowa State’s front seven on defense is amazing. Iowa always plays slowly and has a fairly cautious game plan. The Hawkeyes once again have a very good defense. This is a rivalry game where points are at a premium normally. I don’t see that being any different this season. Take the under. |
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09-14-19 | USC v. BYU OVER 51 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 119 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Graham Harrell’s offense looked great last weekend in USC’s win over Stanford. Slovis is a nice fit at quarterback, and he has some extremely talented receivers around him. USC is playing very quickly as well. This USC defense is way down from where it was a few years ago. USC ranks 78th in YPP allowed so far this year, and they haven’t even played great offenses. BYU’s offense should be improved with Wilson at the helm. |
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09-14-19 | Miami-OH v. Cincinnati UNDER 50 | Top | 13-35 | Win | 100 | 92 h 44 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The last three games between Miami (Ohio) and Cincinnati have finished with a total of 47, 38, and 21 points. Last year's game was played in poor weather, so that one should be discounted at least somewhat. Still, this has been a low scoring series for quite some time. The under is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings between these two. This is a game that means a lot to both teams. Miami Ohio is in Oxford, which is only about 50 minutes from Cincinnati. Cincinnati has been winning in this series consistently, but there have been a bunch of close low scoring games. Cincinnati's defense looked bad last week against Ohio State, but the Bearcats defense was excellent last year, and they certainly aren't playing an offense similar in any fashion to Ohio State here in the Miami Ohio Redhawks. Miami only ran for 2.4 ypc against Iowa in week one. The Redhawks totaled only 245 yards. In fact, Miami only had 349 yards against Tennessee Tech last weekend. There are a lot of questions about this Miami offense. They are young at quarterback, and he isn't surrounded by very much talent. Cincinnati's offense was due for some regression after their amazing success on 3rd down and long last year. The Bearcats are good on offense, but Miami's defense is the strength of their team. The Redhawks won't be able to stop Cincinnati, but I think they can slow them down. In terms of tempo, Miami is 91st in the country and Cincinnati is 120th. There won't be any fast paced play going on here. I think both defenses do a good enough job of preventing explosive plays to make this under very valuable. Miami is running the ball nearly 60% of the time so far this year, and Cincinnati runs it on 63% of their plays. Running clock is always helpful. I had this one lined quite a few points lower. Take the under here. |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina +3.5 v. Wake Forest | 18-24 | Loss | -113 | 112 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on North Carolina* The North Carolina Tar Heels recruiting average over the last four years is significantly higher than Wake Forest. Dave Clawson is a good coach, but he is operating at a big talent disadvantage in the ACC. Mack Brown has come in and done a really nice job so far at UNC. He hired great coordinators, and that is a huge key. Longo is doing a really good job with this young offense, and Bateman is a tremendous defensive coordinator. Sam Howell has really impressed me under center for North Carolina. He should have a lot of success against this Wake Forest defense. The Tar Heels offensive line is a good one as well. Utah State should have won at Wake Forest in week one, but turnovers kept them from pulling off the win in Winston Salem. When I'm getting the team with more talent and more than a field goal, I have to bet it. North Carolina is playing with a chip on their shoulders here too. There has been a lot of talk from the players that they should be ranked in the Top 25. Here's a national television game to show that once again. Take North Carolina. |
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09-13-19 | North Carolina v. Wake Forest OVER 62.5 | 18-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Wake Forest pushes pace about as much as anyone in the country. North Carolina wants to play quicker this year as well. The Tar Heels have faced two good defenses in the first two weeks. The Wake Forest defense isn’t good. Wake Forest has put up big numbers in back to back games, and I think they’ll be able to score plenty again here. Lots of pace and a lot of scoring from each side. Take the over. |
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09-09-19 | Texans +7 v. Saints | 28-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Texans* The Houston Texans have a bunch of talented skill position players. Houston will need to throw the ball a lot this year, and they should be able to be very successful airing it out with the group of wide receivers they have. Deshaun Watson played through an injury and had a nice season last year. With him healthier this year and the weapons on the outside even better, expect some big numbers in the passing game. While the offensive line is still a weakness, it is clearly better than last year. New Orleans is 1-9 straight up in the first two weeks of the season in the last five years. The Saints haven't gotten off to good starts, and I think they will have a harder time with the Texans than the betting market believes. The Saints still don't have a lot of depth at corner, and the Texans will run 3 or 4 very good receivers out against them. Drew Brees will get quite a bit of pressure from the excellent edge rushers from Houston. That should keep him uncomfortable enough for this one to be very close. Take Houston. |
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09-08-19 | Steelers v. Patriots UNDER 49 | 3-33 | Win | 100 | 18 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Patriots were a much different team late last season than what they were the season before. They looked to run the ball far more. The Patriots also were led by their strong defense. I don't think most people realize how good this defense is now. This is a top five defense in the NFL. With Tom Brady aging, I think a more conservative game plan will likely continue. The Steelers defense should be considerably better with Bush at linebacker. He gives the team that quick linebacker in the middle of the field that they have been missing the last couple seasons. I think both teams will do a good job keeping everything in front of them here. A tight game where both teams have to settle for field goals several times should keep this one under. Take the under. |
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09-08-19 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 45.5 | 17-35 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* These divisional rivals square off in week one of the NFL regular season. The New York Giants are without a couple key wide receivers, which should make their game plan even more conservative for this game. Look for a lot of running the football and short passes. That should keep the clock moving quite a bit. Dallas will look to run it a lot and the Cowboys still aren't likely to take too many deep shots in this offense. Kellen Moore's system should take some time to get established, especially since Zeke hasn't been around until a few days ago. New York's Saquon Barkley is likely to bust quite a few big plays this year, but Dallas' linebackers make it harder to break big gainers on this team than the average NFL defense. Dallas is absolutely loaded at linebacker, and their speed is impressive. Five of the last six games between these two teams have finished at 40 points or less. Look for another hard fought contest here. Take the under. |
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09-08-19 | Lions -2.5 v. Cardinals | 27-27 | Loss | -105 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions have a defensive minded coach, and I would expect them to have a solid game plan ready for this game. Arizona is the wild card here. What are the Cardinals going to be under Kingsbury and with Kyler Murray at quarterback? It doesn't help that Marcus Gilbert is out this week. Gilbert is key from his tackle position. Arizona doesn't have much depth at wide receiver, and there are some injury concerns there as well. I would be surprised if the air raid offense just works like a charm from the first game of the regular season. This is still a rookie quarterback and a first time NFL head coach. The Cardinals defense is severely shorthanded in the secondary right now. They are without their top two cornerbacks. Patrick Petersen is a huge loss, but so is Robert Alford. Detroit wants to run the ball, and I think they should be able to find some room to run against this Cardinals front seven. That should open things up for Stafford and the passing game for Detroit. Detroit is healthier and this is a team that has had more continuity. Arizona has too many question marks right now. Take Detroit. |
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09-08-19 | Giants +7.5 v. Cowboys | 17-35 | Loss | -108 | 39 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Giants* The New York Giants and the Dallas Cowboys have played some very tight games against each other in recent seasons. How close have these contests been? Seven of the last nine games between these two teams have been decided by a touchdown or less. I think this will be another close one. Divisional underdogs have been money in the bank early in the season in the past few years in the NFL. In general, underdogs have been strong in the first couple weeks of the year. Divisional underdogs is an even stronger angle. These two teams clearly know each other very well. The Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliot on the field here, but this is a new offense under Kellen Moore. The Cowboys barely tried at all in the preseason and Elliot hasn't been with the team. Dallas has started slow in recent seasons and I think more of the same could come here. The Cowboys are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 in week one of the season. Jason Garrett isn't a good head coach, and that certainly plays a role in starting slow. The Giants are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 road games. I think they stay in this one. Take the New York Giants. |
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09-08-19 | Colts +6.5 v. Chargers | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Colts* The LA Chargers have virtually no home field advantage. They definitely don't deserve the standard 2.5 or 3 points for HFA here. In fact, they might be better on the road. The Chargers have a bunch of injuries on the offensive line, and the Colts should be in the backfield a bunch here. Andrew Luck retired and that has been all the talk the last couple weeks. What many people forget is the Colts built a pretty good team for this year. Jacoby Brissett isn't great, but he isn't bad either. He has some nice pieces around him. The Colts are clearly the healthier team. Indianapolis has been told they don't have any chance for the last couple weeks. This is a game where they should rally and give max effort. This is a dangerous spot for the Chargers, who have been known to have some flat spots at home against lesser opponents. Take the Colts. |
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09-08-19 | Titans v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 43-13 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans have injury/suspension trouble on the offensive line. You don't want to be facing this Cleveland Browns pass rush with question marks on the offensive line. Marcus Mariota hasn't shown himself to be very good when under pressure in the NFL. The Titans will likely look to run the ball quite a bit here and bleed the clock. They don't want to get into a shootout here, and they know they have pass protection issues. Cleveland's offensive line isn't very good in pass protection either. Cameron Wake is a nice addition for the Titans, and I see this Titans defense as underrated. They don't have many stars, but they don't have any glaring weaknesses either. Baker Mayfield is very good, but he can have some interception issues and I wouldn't be surprised if a couple drives are slowed by a pick or two here. The Browns running game isn't great either. With an extra emphasis on holding calls this year, I see this as a game where there could be a lot of offensive holding penalties with the Oline's struggling to keep the pass rush off their quarterback. Take the under. |
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09-07-19 | Eastern Michigan +16 v. Kentucky | 17-38 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Eastern Michigan* The Eastern Michigan Eagles play a ton of close games. Eastern Michigan doesn't win by much, and they don't lose by much. Eastern Michigan has been a covering machine in non-conference games as well. The Eagles are 17-4 ATS in their last 21 non-conference games. They are 21-6 in their last 27 ATS on the road. Kentucky lost a bunch from last year, and they are going to be way down. The Wildcats certainly have the much better talent here, but I'm not sure they deserve to be this kind of a favorite. Add to that the fact that Kentucky could easily be looking ahead to their next game against Florida. That is a huge game for the Wildcats since Florida has dominated Kentucky on their home field. This is a potential look ahead spot. Eastern Michigan is a tough gritty team and in this situation I think they have enough to keep this one within the spread. Take Eastern Michigan. |
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09-07-19 | Western Kentucky v. Florida International OVER 57 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Western Kentucky will look to play faster and air it out under Helton this year. The Hilltoppers defense was taken advantage of by Central Arkansas last week. FIU has a very efficient offense and I would expect FIU to take advantage of Western Kentucky's secondary here. FIU faced a much tougher defensive line in Tulane last week and that bothered them. They don't face anything similar here from Western Kentucky. Look for a lot of scoring in this one. Take the over. |
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09-07-19 | Wyoming v. Texas State +7 | 23-14 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Texas State* There are several key factors working against Wyoming in this game. Wyoming is coming off a huge upset win over Missouri last weekend. The Cowboys were outplayed badly in that one, but Missouri's turnovers helped them pull off the upset. This is a tough spot after that kind of game. Wyoming is going to a place they aren't accustomed to going, and the weather isn't going to be helpful here either. The game time temperature is expected to be 98 degrees. Texas State is accustomed to this kind of heat, but Wyoming isn't. Wyoming lost their star defensive coordinator from last year to Kansas State. I think that hurts them quite a bit this year. Texas State has a new coach and this is their home opener against a team off a big win. This is a great opportunity for Texas State. Take Texas State. |
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09-07-19 | UL-Monroe v. Florida State OVER 62 | 44-45 | Win | 100 | 74 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Florida State was clicking on all cylinders in the first half last week against Boise State. They stalled out in a big way in the second half. Expect Kendal Briles to have some fixes for this week. The Seminoles have a huge talent advantage against the LA Monroe Warhawks here. Importantly, Florida State was playing 5 seconds per play quicker than they did a year ago. The Seminoles played at the 2nd quickest pace of any team in the country in week one. I think they can put up a big number here. Monroe has a veteran quarterback and a pretty good offense. They won't score too many, but it should be enough to get this past the total. Take the over. |
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09-07-19 | UTSA v. Baylor OVER 57.5 | 14-63 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Baylor ranked 125th in red zone offense last year. They had some very untimely turnovers in the red zone last year, and I would expect much better from them with another year in this system and a veteran quarterback in Charlie Brewer. Brewer has improved weapons around him, and this offensive line is definitely better than a year ago. UTSA has nowhere to go but up compared to last year on offense. They still won't be good on offense, but they will be improved. They have a new offensive coordinator who has helped them have a better scheme. Baylor's offense is way too good for this UTSA defense. The UTSA secondary is a major weakness, and I would expect Baylor to have a lot of guys running wide open in this one. The Bears have picked up their tempo a bit as well. The extreme heat (100 degrees) is helpful for an over as well. There are multiple strong angles regarding taking the over in a hot game. Look for Baylor to put up a big number here and UTSA to do enough to get this past the posted total. Take the over. |
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09-07-19 | Nebraska v. Colorado OVER 61 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 120 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is way down from a year ago. Nebraska will push the tempo in a big way here, and I think this number is lower than it should be based on Nebraska's struggles last week. Nebraska's offense should get right this week and put up a big number here. The Colorado offense is really dangerous with Montez and Shenault as the stars of the unit. Look for them to be able to find holes in this Nebraska secondary. I think this number is several points too low. Take the over. |
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09-07-19 | Southern Miss v. Mississippi State OVER 51.5 | 15-38 | Win | 100 | 96 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Mississippi State's defense was amazing last year. While I don't think they will be bad this year, they lost nearly everything from last season on the defensive end. The Bulldogs defense is going to give up a lot more than they did a year ago. On the other side of the ball, Tommy Stevens is likely a good fit for the Bulldogs offense due to the fact that he has worked with Joe Moorhead in the past and knows this offense well. Southern Miss has a new offensive coordinator this year. He was an assistant at Arkansas State, and I would expect Southern Miss to turn up the tempo this year and pick up more big gainers. Southern Miss has a strong offensive line and the Golden Eagles offense should be far more efficient this year than it was a year ago. Both of these teams played in a lot of low scoring contests last year, which has kept this number down enough to give us value. Take the over. |
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09-07-19 | Vanderbilt v. Purdue OVER 55.5 | 24-42 | Win | 100 | 46 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers aired it out early and often last week against Nevada. Purdue averaged 6.41 yards per play, so they moved the ball well. Turnovers were a big problem for the Boilers. Vanderbilt has had a strong secondary in the past, but they lost a lot from that unit, and I would expect Purdue's excellent group of wide receivers to be able to do damage against this secondary. Elijah Sindelar is a quarterback capable of throwing a pick six on a questionable decision or completing a long touchdown. The Boilermakers tempo was more than two seconds per play faster than last season in their week one game, and that is despite the fact they led for much of that game. Vanderbilt said in the preseason they would play somewhat faster under their new offensive coordinator, and that was true in week one. They faced an elite defense in Georgia last week, but this Purdue defense is far worse. Purdue gives up too many big plays. Riley Neal and the Vanderbilt offense should move the ball pretty well here too. I had this number at 60, so we are getting several points of value. Take the over. |
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09-07-19 | Syracuse +105 v. Maryland | 20-63 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Syracuse Moneyline* The Maryland Terrapins were a team with a lot of question marks heading into the season. The Terrapins demolished Howard last week, but I think this is an overreaction in the betting market. Syracuse is a program on the rise under Dino Babers. The thing that has impressed me the most with Syracuse in recent seasons is their improvement on the defensive end. The Orange have an excellent secondary that should be able to take away a lot of Maryland's success in the passing attack. The Syracuse pass rush is strong as well and Maryland's offensive line is a weakness. While Dungey being gone hurts the Syracuse offense, they have a deep group of running backs and I think they'll be able to run the ball here on Maryland. I think Syracuse is the better team here by a decent margin, but the market has swung this one heavily toward Maryland because of their beatdown of Howard last week. Take Syracuse. |
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08-31-19 | Louisiana Tech +20.5 v. Texas | 14-45 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Louisiana Tech* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have been a good underdog under head coach Skip Holtz. Holtz's teams have been known to give bigger teams a hard fight. While I don't think they can win this game, I do think they can keep it closer than most people believe. Texas is a team I believe is overvalued coming into the season. The Longhorns won a bunch of games last year, but they actually had a net negative yards per play. They also lost some key playmakers on both sides of the ball. They are a relatively inexperienced team. We all know what Tom Herman has done as an underdog, but his teams have been very weak as a favorite. Herman's teams are 6-13-1 ATS as a double digit favorite. Texas plays LSU next game. The Longhorns have to be up for this game, and they would be well served to do enough to get by and get ready for that matchup. Louisiana Tech hired Bob Diaco as a defensive coordinator and I like that hire. The Bulldogs have a great secondary, and their front seven isn't bad. Too many points here. Take Louisiana Tech. |
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08-31-19 | Virginia -2.5 v. Pittsburgh | 30-14 | Win | 100 | 339 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play* The Virginia Cavaliers are a team I believe will make a move upward this season. Virginia is led by a very underrated quarterback in Bryce Perkins. Perkins improved a lot throwing the football last year, and he is still a tremendous runner. Look for Perkins to put up big numbers this year. The Cavs defense is the strength of the team. They have an elite secondary, and I expect improvement on the defensive line as well. This is one of the better defenses in the ACC. Pittsburgh has a questionable quarterback in Kenny Pickett. New offensive coordinator Mark Whipple wants to throw the ball more, but Pickett hasn’t shown to be efficient in the passing game. Pittsburgh’s top two runners are gone from a year ago. The Panthers offensive line is also weaker than a year ago. Rashad Weaver was Pitt’s best defensive player, but he is out with an injury. The Panthers gave up 4.8 yards per carry last year, and this front seven looks weak once again. Virginia’s defense will be the strongest unit on the field, and the Cavs have the much better quarterback. Pittsburgh has beaten Virginia four times in a row, and I see this as a good chance for a veteran Virginia team to get some revenge and start their season off the right way. Take Virginia. |
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08-31-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Coastal Carolina OVER 53 | 30-23 | Push | 0 | 13 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Eastern Michigan Eagles have arguably the best secondary in the MAC. Eastern Michigan will give teams who want to air it out often a hard time this year. Eastern Michigan is weak in the front seven though. Kyle Rachwal was the heart and soul of the linebackers and he is gone after racking up 127 tackles last year. The defensive tackles aren't very good against the run. That's important in this game. Coastal Carolina is all about the run. The Chanticleers ran it on 66% of their offensive plays last year, and they might run it even more this year. They have some impressive talent at running back, and they have several guys who will see the field at that position. Look for them to have success breaking some big plays here. Eastern Michigan's offense should be improved this year. The Eagles should be more balanced with a good athlete at quarterback in Mike Glass. The Coastal Carolina defense was horrible last year. They allowed 7.30 yards per play last year. They allowed a whopping 82 plays of 20 yards or more. Eastern Michigan should be able to move it consistently here as well. Take the over. |
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08-31-19 | Boise State v. Florida State OVER 51.5 | 36-31 | Win | 100 | 45 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Kendal Briles is the new offensive coordinator at Florida State. At Houston, Briles' offense was easily the fastest pace team in the nation. Briles has been stressing pushing the tempo ever since he got to Florida State. The Seminoles offense has too many talented players at the skill positions to not improve a lot in this new system. The OLine is still the weakness, but Briles should be able to draw up better plays and get the ball out quicker. Boise State isn't as strong in the secondary as many years, and I think the Seminoles will break some big plays. Boise State's offense typically moves at a normal tempo, and I don't think they will slow the game down too much here. The Broncos still have playmakers on the offensive end, and this Florida State defense will have to adjust to being on the field more with the offense playing at such a quick tempo. This game was moved to Tallahassee and will start at noon. The hurricane winds shouldn't reach here until at least Sunday, and the current forecast calls for winds of only 6 mph during this game. With the tempo this game will be played at, I have to side with the over. Take the over. |
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08-30-19 | Purdue v. Nevada +11 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 104 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nevada* The Purdue Boilermakers have a bright future with Jeff Brohm leading the way, but I think there are going to be some speed bumps this year. Purdue lost a ton of talent from last year's team. The Boilermakers return only 3 starters on offense from last year's team. The offensive line is a major problem area. They lost their three interior linemen. Purdue also has Sindelar under center now, and he has had turnover problems in the past. Rondale Moore is a superstar, but the cast around him isn't nearly as good this year. The Boilermakers defense gave up 5.99 yards per play last year. Nevada's improvement on defense last year really impressed me. The Wolf Pack gave up 6.1 yards per play two years ago and defense was a major weakness. Last year, Nevada's defense only allowed 5.25 yards per play. The 3-3-5 stack defense has given opponents some significant trouble. Nevada blitzes from that 3-3-5 fairly often and they racked up 35 sacks a year ago. Look for them to get a lot of pressure on Sindelar with the Purdue offensive front being a clear weakness. Nevada has an improved running game, and I like their depth in the backfield. Purdue is going to be a little too one dimensional this year with their running game being a question mark. Purdue must go and play at elevation here in week one. This is a big number and I'll grab the points with the home underdog. Take Nevada. |
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08-30-19 | Wisconsin -10 v. South Florida | 49-0 | Win | 100 | 27 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Wisconsin* The South Florida Bulls have been decent in the secondary in recent years, but stopping the run has been a major problem. Wisconsin is going to give them a heavy dose of Jonathan Taylor and this elite running game, and I don't think USF can stop it. USF allowed 5.12 yards per carry last year, which was 114th in the nation. The Bulls are weak in the front seven again this year. Wisconsin's offensive line has a big advantage here. Jack Coan isn't great, but I do think he is an upgrade from Hornibrook. The Wisconsin defense was badly banged up last year, and that made their defensive numbers easily the worst they have had in years. The Badgers defense is more experienced now, and they should be much improved. There has been a lot made of the heat and humidity here, but I see Wisconsin having a big edge in the trenches. This is a good buy low spot on a Wisconsin team that will be much better than they were a year ago. Take Wisconsin. |
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08-29-19 | Kent State v. Arizona State OVER 61 | 7-30 | Loss | -105 | 267 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Over* The Kent State Golden Flashes play at an extremely fast pace under Sean Lewis. He was an assistant under Dino Babers, and he'll keep speeding this team up. Woody Barrett returns for another year at quarterback, and I think he is a really good fit for this offense. Barrett can run or throw, and the receivers are very solid for the Golden Flashes. Kent State's defense gives up loads of big plays. The Golden Flashes allowed a whopping 42 plays of 30 yards or more last year. They won't be good this year either, and Arizona State still has some big play guys on offense. Arizona State lost Manny Wilkins, but I really like Jayden Daniels. Daniels might struggle against top defenses as a freshman, but this is a great opportunity for him. Eno Benjamin is a great running back, and he should have a huge game against this Kent State defense. I would expect the pace here to be pretty quick, and the explosive plays from Arizona State should come often. Kent State's offense will be much improved this season. Take the over. |
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08-29-19 | Texas State v. Texas A&M OVER 56 | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats will look totally different this year. Jake Spavital is an offensive minded coach who wants to play uptempo. He brought in Bob Stitt, who is known as a mastermind of the fly sweep and many other unique offensive formations. Stitt is a guy who coaches turned to as they looked for innovation in the spread formation. Look for Texas State to go 4 or 5 wide often and use a lot of motion and quick passes. They won't substitute often because they really want to push the pace. While the Bobcats aren't great on offense right now, I think they can do enough here against Texas A&M. The Aggies have a huge advantage offensively vs. an undersized Texas State defensive front. Look for plenty of big gainers from the Aggies offense led by Kellen Mond. With the tempo being at an extreme and the weather looking favorable here, I think this total is too low. Take the over. |
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02-03-19 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 56.5 | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show | |
*2 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots and Los Angeles Rams will play to see who wins the Super Bowl on Sunday night. New England has been here all kinds of times, and this is the first trip for this Rams team. The Rams have run the ball on more than 50% of their offensive plays in their last three games. Jared Goff has been shaky late in the season, and I expect the Rams to run the ball quite a bit in this game especially early on in the game. The Patriots have transformed themselves into a team that runs the ball well behind a strong offensive line. There's no doubt New England has less elite weapons in the passing game now than they have had in the past, so it makes sense for them to make this change. They have multiple good running back options. I think they'll run the ball a lot in this one as well. I think both teams will likely run the ball more and try to keep their defense off the field, which should result in some long drives that eat up a lot of clock. The Rams defense has allowed less than 19 points per game in contests Aqib Talib has played. He has been a difference maker for this defense. The defensive line has played much better in their last few games as well. This Rams defense is very well coached by Wade Phillips. New England's defense confused the Chiefs for much of the game in the AFC title game. I think they'll have some good schemes ready here as well. Take the under. |
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01-20-19 | Patriots v. Chiefs OVER 55.5 | 37-31 | Win | 100 | 65 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots hosted the Kansas City Chiefs in week 6 of the regular season. The Patriots won that game 43-40. The scoring was rapid fire back and forth late in that game. Both teams were getting a bunch of big gainers. Kansas City has the best offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes has proven people wrong all year, and he has a good coaching staff putting him in great positions. It doesn't hurt to have guys like Hill, Kelce, and Watkins to throw the ball to either. The Chiefs offensive line is one of the two or three best in the NFL as well. Kansas City has been able to score on everyone this year. I don't think that changes here. The Patriots defense can't match the team speed of the Chiefs. New England's offense has found a really solid running game late this year. Kansas City ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Chiefs have gotten gashed on several occasions. While the Patriots offense isn't elite, they do still have one of the best of all time at quarterback. They also have a great offensive coaching staff. This is a weak Kansas City defense they are up against. Both of these teams rank in the top eight in pace of play, so there should be plenty of snaps here. The over is 8-1-1 in the Patriots last 10 playoff games. New England has scored 28 points or more in all but one of those games. The weather doesn't look nearly as bad as it did earlier this year. Current forecasts call for temperatures in the mid 20's here, which is cold, but not brutal by any means. The winds are expected to be at only 5 or 6 mph. Cold weather games have gone over in the NFL in the past. Games with a temperature of less than 30 degrees have gone 95-61 (60.9%) to the over. In the playoffs, the over is 20-11 in this weather. When the game is a non-divisional contest, the over is a whopping 67-30 (69.1%). Look for both teams to score quite a few here. Take the over. |
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01-13-19 | Eagles v. Saints OVER 51 | 14-20 | Loss | -109 | 62 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints passing attack is capable of huge things. They weren't at their best down the stretch, but their numbers are much better in the Superdome than on the road and they are up against a very weakened Eagles secondary here. Drew Brees is still a very reliable quarterback, and he still has a great offensive line in front of him. The Saints have multiple good weapons on the outside, and they also have a great running back in Kamara. The Eagles secondary has been a problem late in the year with the significant amount of injuries. Philadelphia's secondary was exposed by Houston late in the year. The Bears weren't able to expose them, but the Saints are on the fast track and have many more weapons. The Eagles offense has been playing better with Foles at quarterback, and the Saints defense gives up a lot of big plays. Philadelphia is a better offense with Sproles healthy. He isn't young, but he still has big play potential. Both passing attacks have a significant advantage here, and this isn't that high of a total considering the situations. The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 home playoff contests. Take the over. |
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01-07-19 | Alabama v. Clemson +5.5 | 16-44 | Win | 100 | 7 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Clemson* The Clemson Tigers have been great in bowl games under Dabo Swinney. Swinney is at his best in the underdog role in the postseason. His teams are 7-1 ATS in this spot. Importantly, they have won six of those seven games outright. They aren't just covering by a bit, they are beating the number by a huge margin. Clemson's defensive line is the best in the nation. Tua Tagovailoa still has an injured ankle. I don't think it is in terrible shape by any means, but with this Clemson defense it will be tested far more than normal. Additionally, Levi's Stadium is known for poor footing after rain and there has been rain recently. Trevor Lawrence has been tremendous this year. This Alabama defense is very good, but I do think Christian Miller's injury hurts them a decent amount. Clemson has a very underrated runner in Etienne. The public is on Alabama here, and fading the public in bowl season has been a very profitable long term strategy. Alabama is a great team, but Clemson is stacked with talent as well. Expect a close game here. Take Clemson. |
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01-06-19 | Chargers +3 v. Ravens | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Chargers* The Baltimore Ravens beat the Chargers a couple weeks ago on the road. The Chargers have been better on the road than at home though, and this Chargers team has much more balance than the Ravens. Baltimore has gotten good play from Lamar Jackson, but he doesn't give the team much of a downfield passing threat at all. The Chargers do have a good defense, and I expect some adjustments from them in this one. The Ravens defense is very good, but the Chargers offense ranked third in the NFL in yards per play, and now they are healthier than they have been. They'll be hard to keep down for an entire game. Jackson has had several good games, but he did get to beat quite a few bad teams. The Chargers are a dangerous team and catching a full field goal here is a nice value. Take the Chargers. |
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01-01-19 | Kentucky v. Penn State UNDER 47.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats had a terrific season. Kentucky is led by their great defense. Kentucky's defense ranks 16th in the nation adjusted for strength of schedule. The Wildcats have a future NFL linebacker in Josh Allen. He is likely the best player on the field here, and I expect him to give Penn State quarterback Trace McSorley a hard time. Kentucky's pass rush is excellent and Penn State has struggled in protection at times this year. The Kentucky offense is all about the run. Snell is a good running back, but it is hard to move the ball against a quality defense when you don't any other threats. Kentucky's passing game is very weak. Penn State will be looking to try to make Kentucky beat them through the air. The Wildcats run the ball on about 64% of their plays from scrimmage, and they play at a very slow pace. Six of Kentucky's last nine games finished with a combined point total of 35 points or less. Penn State has seen four of their last seven games finish at 41 points combined or less. Both teams are great at preventing big plays. I expect a hard fought game. Take the under. |
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12-31-18 | Northwestern v. Utah UNDER 46 | 31-20 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Utah Utes are somewhat similar in that the strength of their defense is the defensive line. Pat Fitzgerald and Kyle Whittingham are defensive-minded coaches. Both offensive lines have allowed a lot of tackles for a loss (NW 52nd best and Utah 80th). Utah is 7th in tackles for a loss on defense and NW is 70th. Both of these teams have done a good job preventing explosive plays. Both teams have allowed only 20 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Utah is 73rd in the country in plays of 30 yards or more and Northwestern is 117th. Northwestern is 43rd in 3rd down conversion percentage allowed and Utah is 25th. The two offenses are 62nd and 79th on 3rd down. Northwestern is 124th out of 130 in yards per play. This Wildcats offense just isn't any good. Clayton Thorson doesn't have enough weapons around him, and the offensive line is weak. This Utah defensive line is going to give them problems. Utah will be without their two best playmakers in Britain Covey (WR) and Zack Moss (RB) here. Tyler Huntley is expected to play some at QB after being injured the last few games, but he may not start. I see both teams having to work hard to get anything on offense, and these defenses have been great at forcing field goals instead of allowing touchdowns in the red zone. Take the under. |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State v. Oregon UNDER 48 | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans are very good at turning games into sloppy low scoring games. How good? Their last seven games of the season all finished with a combined score of 38 points or lower. Four of their last six games finished with 28 points or less. The Spartans have an excellent defense and a terrible offense. Michigan State ranks 125th in the nation in yards per play. The Spartans is 13th in yards per play allowed. Oregon had a lot of high scoring games this year, but this is the best defense they have faced. They also aren't accustomed to teams who play at a very slow tempo as Michigan State does. The weather should help here. Santa Clara's Levi's Stadium is known as a nice under field because of the grass and conditions. The wind is expected to be blowing at around 20 mph during the middle of this game. That's a clear plus for the under with it making it harder to get big plays in the passing game. Take the under. |
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12-31-18 | Michigan State +117 v. Oregon | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Michigan State* The Michigan State Spartans have the much better defense and the public is on the other side. Two very strong bowl systems are fading the public, and backing the better defense. Michigan State fits both of those in this game. Mark Dantonio is known for his ability as an underdog, and I trust him far more to get his team ready than Mario Cristobal. Fading the Pac 12 in bowl season has been a massive moneymaker in recent seasons. The Pac 12 is a stunningly bad 2-16 ATS in their last 18. The weather calls for wind and that makes running and run defenses more important. Michigan State ranks second in the nation in run defense. Take Michigan State on moneyline at the plus money price. |
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12-30-18 | Lions v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the Detroit Lions in the final game of the regular season for each team. There are strong under trends in the long term in the final week of the season with bad teams. It is much stronger if the game isn't being played in a dome. From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. The wind could be a bit of a factor here too. Steady winds of 13-14 mph with gusts to 22 mph are forecast for Green Bay on Sunday afternoon. Detroit's offense has scored 17 points or less in four straight games. Stafford is playing banged up and they are without their star running back Kerryon Johnson. Both pass rushes are much better than the offensive line, and that should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable. Take the under. |
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12-30-18 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 39.5 | 17-42 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills host the Miami Dolphins on Sunday afternoon. Buffalo's offense has been woeful at best this year. Buffalo has scored 13 points or less nine times this year. Buffalo has a very conservative offense, and I wouldn't expect that to change much here. Miami's offense has been really bad of late. Ryan Tannehill is banged up and the offensive line in front of him is shorthanded as well. They are without multiple top options on offense. The Dolphins scored just 7 points last week against Jacksonville. This Buffalo defense has been tremendous all year. The Dolphins didn't even get to 200 yards in their first game against Buffalo. Buffalo ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Both of these teams play slowly and the weather here calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That should keep things more conservative on the play calling front. From game number 13-16: when both teams have won 50% or less of their games and the game is not being played in a dome- the under is 131-84-6 (60.9%). The number goes to 92-55 to the under when the total is at least 39.5. This is a late season game that should be filled with some sloppy offense and a low scoring contest. Take the under. |
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12-29-18 | Notre Dame v. Clemson UNDER 57 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* These are two excellent defenses. Clemson is first in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks eighth in the country in yards per play allowed. Clemson's defensive line is without one starter here in Dexter Lawrence, but I still expect them to be too much for this Notre Dame offensive front. Notre Dame has been acceptable in pass blocking this year, but they have a very hard task ahead of them to keep the pocket clean here. Clemson's Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in the country in my opinion, and I expect this Tigers defense to have a lot of different looks ready. The secondary was good most of the year, though they did have a couple slip ups. I expect them to get a lot of help from the pass rush. It's also important to keep in mind that Ian Book doesn't have much experience, and he hasn't played many good defenses yet. That changes here. Trevor Lawrence is a really talented quarterback, but he's a freshman and he hasn't faced defensive challenges very often yet. Clemson's run game isn't likely to be able to dominate against this Notre Dame defensive front. Clemson hasn't had a great downfield passing game this year. Both of these defenses have been excellent at preventing big plays. That can make scoring take a lot longer, and it increases the likelihood of field goals instead of touchdowns. Two great defensive coordinators here and two very young quarterbacks. Take the under. |
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12-28-18 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Washington State | 26-28 | Win | 100 | 209 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Iowa State* The Iowa State Cyclones are an extremely well-coached team. Matt Campbell is still underrated. Campbell's teams are a whopping 25-11 ATS as an underdog of three points or more. They thrive in this role. Washington State has had a really nice season, but they play in a terrible Pac 12 conference. Washington State's running game is non-existent, and Iowa State's defensive schemes can be hard to read for opposing quarterbacks. Consider how they shut down West Virginia and Will Grier earlier this year. Mike Leach is 1-7 ATS in his last 8 bowl games. He is a good coach, but he's been a money burner this time of the year. Iowa State played the much tougher schedule. I'm getting the better defense with more than a field goal. I'm also getting the team playing closer to home. Take Iowa State plus the points and sprinkle some on the moneyline as well. |
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12-28-18 | Syracuse +110 v. West Virginia | 34-18 | Win | 110 | 480 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Syracuse Moneyline* The Syracuse Orange haven't been to a bowl game anytime recently. In fact, their last bowl game was in 2013. This program has been built back up by Dino Babers and I expect them to be supremely motivated in a game like this. Syracuse wants to show the world they are back, and beating a team ranked in the Top 15 in the AP Poll. West Virginia will be without Will Grier here. Grier is skipping this game to be ready for the NFL Draft. Grier is a perfect fit for Dana Holgorsen's offense, and the Mountaineers don't have a good second option at quarterback. It isn't just Grier either. Yodny Cajuste, the team's best offensive lineman, will skip this game as well. The Mountaineers offense is unlikely to look anything like their offense has during the regular season. The Big 12 is only 42-57 ATS in bowl games since 2005. The Big 12 is 21-32 ATS as a favorite in bowl games. West Virginia has to be disappointed that a couple of their top players are sitting out. Holgorsen has been rumored as interested in many other jobs as well. I like the motivational edge for Syracuse. Take Syracuse here. |
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12-28-18 | Auburn v. Purdue +3.5 | 63-14 | Loss | -105 | 109 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Purdue* The Auburn Tigers were a top ten preseason team. They didn't expect to be playing in the Music City Bowl against Purdue. Gus Malzahn is under a lot of heat, and his Auburn teams haven't been good in bowl games. Why would Auburn be excited for this game? On the other side, Purdue has to be excited that Jeff Brohm decided to stay at Purdue. Brohm is one of the best coaches in the country, and his coordinators are elite as well. He is building something very big at Purdue. Brohm is 8-2 ATS as an underdog with five straight up wins at Purdue. Here's another chance in that role and with time to prepare. Purdue is the much better offense. The Boilermakers are a top ten team in the country in yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Their passing game is tremendous with Rondale Moore being one of the best weapons, especially with his versatility, in the country. The Auburn defense is good, but they are beatable through the air. They don't rank among the top 25 in pass defense in the country. I like the motivational angles here, and Purdue played faced a top 10 schedule this year as well. Purdue has a good chance to pull the upset, but I'll take the points here. Take Purdue. |
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12-27-18 | Miami-FL v. Wisconsin UNDER 48 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 171 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes and Wisconsin Badgers meet in a rematch of last year's bowl game. Wisconsin won that game 34-24 because of a rare great passing game for the offense. Wisconsin will be without Alex Hornibrook for this game due to a concussion. That makes Coan the starting quarterback. He has thrown a lot of very safe short passes in his time under center. There isn't a big threat of the deep ball. Wisconsin is good at running the ball, but Miami is 11th in the country in yards per carry allowed. The Hurricanes are very strong in the front seven. Taylor will get his yards here, but I don't think they will come as easy as they do in most games. Especially with Miami knowing there isn't much of a passing threat. Miami's quarterback situation isn't good at all. The Hurricanes have the 112th ranked passing attack in the country. Wisconsin's defense will likely dare Miami to beat them with the passing game. Both defenses have been good at not giving up big plays. They both rank in the top 30 in the country at preventing explosive plays. Both offensive are in the bottom half of the country at getting explosive plays. This game is played at Yankee Stadium in late December. The weather could help the under here as well with cold weather and possible winds. Take the under. |
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12-27-18 | Duke +3.5 v. Temple | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 85 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Duke* The Duke Blue Devils are a really well-coached team. David Cutcliffe has been great at getting the most out of his players for a long time now. Cutcliffe is 8-2 ATS in bowl games. Not all coaches can do a great job getting their teams ready for bowl games, but he has proven himself to be one of the best at it. What about Temple's coach for this one? Ed Foley will get a second crack as an interim coach for Temple in a bowl game. Geoff Collins has moved on to Georgia Tech, and Manny Diaz will be the next coach at Temple. Diaz isn't here for this one though. Foley is the guy for this game only. Foley was also the team's head coach two years ago when Matt Rhule was gone for Baylor. Temple lost outright as 12 point favorites in that game against Wake Forest. I don't want to read anything much into one game, but it's clear Duke has a coaching advantage here. Cutcliffe is one of the best in the country. Duke has played a much tougher schedule this year. Temple plays in a very weak conference, and them laying points against an ACC foe here doesn't make much sense to me. Cutcliffe has been money as an underdog too. His teams are 48-32 ATS as an underdog in the last 80. I'll take the team with the big coaching edge getting more than a field goal here. Take Duke. |
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12-26-18 | Minnesota v. Georgia Tech -5.5 | 34-10 | Loss | -109 | 72 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Georgia Tech* Georgia Tech's Paul Johnson is coaching in his final game here. The players really seem to like Johnson and I would expect maximum effort here. Minnesota is without their best defensive player (Cashman). He is a run stuffer. Minnesota hasn't been very good against the run to start with, and now Cashman is out. We also have the news of at least six players suspended for Minnesota, but the names haven't been released. This is clearly a negative for the Golden Gophers. Minnesota doesn't have top end talent yet, and I think Georgia Tech's huge edge in the rushing game is too much for Minnesota to overcome. Take Georgia Tech. |
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12-23-18 | Steelers v. Saints OVER 52.5 | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Pittsburgh Steelers and New Orleans Saints haven't scored that many points in recent games, but these are still very good offenses. Pittsburgh throws the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are throwing the ball on 2/3 of their offensive plays. The Steelers should be able to take advantage of the Saints secondary. Marshon Lattimore is very good, but the Saints don't have depth in the secondary. They have played some teams recent who haven't been able to take advantage of that weakness, but the Steelers should be able to. What about Drew Brees and the Saints offense? They have too many weapons to be bad for too long. The Saints are back in the dome and they have put up big numbers here many times in the past. This total has been pushed down because of recent results, but I see this as a recency bias situation. Two teams who are very capable of scoring in bunches and scoring quickly on the fast track. Take the over. |
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12-23-18 | Bucs v. Cowboys -6.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Dallas* I was against the Dallas Cowboys last week when they lost 23-0 to the Colts. I'll be on them this weekend at home against Tampa Bay. The Cowboys were coming off a big win over the Eagles last week, and it was a major flat spot. That isn't the case now. There are a lot of quotes coming out of the locker room from Dallas that they were extremely embarrassed by their loss last week. They need to win one of their last two games, and this is their best chance to do it against a weak team and on their home turf. The Tampa Bay defense has been surprisingly bad against the run this year, and that doesn't bode well for them against Ezekiel Elliot and this rushing attack. Tampa Bay ranks in the bottom eight in the NFL in rushing defense. They haven't been able to get into the backfield very often. Dallas can mix in the play action passes more now to Amari Cooper as well, and the Tampa Bay secondary has been beaten deep often this year. The Cowboys will probably have Sean Lee on the field here. The defense is really good without him, and it is excellent with him on the field. Tampa Bay doesn't have anything to play, and the Cowboys have a lot they need to accomplish here. The Cowboys should be ready to go for this one. Take Dallas. |
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12-23-18 | Vikings v. Lions UNDER 42.5 | 27-9 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are looking to run the ball a lot more and have a more conservative offense under their new offensive coordinator. Minnesota is likely to play slower, and with a lot more runs it means a running clock which is clearly good for the under. Detroit has been running the ball more lately as well. Why? Matt Stafford is banged up badly and is playing behind a very weak offensive line. Minnesota sacked him 10 times when these two teams met a few weeks ago! The Vikings will be in the backfield a lot again in this one. Detroit has scored 17 points or less in each of their last four games. The Lions are without Kerryon Johnson and that hurts their efficiency in the running game significantly. Both teams running it a lot and playing slower than the average NFL tempo. I expect a lower scoring game. Take the under. |
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12-22-18 | Wake Forest +3.5 v. Memphis | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Wake Forest* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons have played a much tougher schedule than the Memphis Tigers. Memphis has been able to roll up some big numbers against bad teams this year, but I'm not impressed with their performances against quality teams. They have multiple assistants leaving for other jobs. Memphis also has an All American running back in Henderson sitting out this game. Their running game is still good, but it is no longer elite without Henderson on the field. Brady White hasn't proven capable of making the big throws when needed in the key situations. He'll miss their star running back in the backfield, and I see the Wake Forest defensive staff having a good game plan ready for this one. Wake Forest has an underrated running game, and the Demon Deacons rushing defense was much better in the last few games of the season. I'm getting points with a team that has pushed hard to get into a bowl game, and should be highly motivated here. They have played the much tougher schedule and I see them winning outright. I suggest sprinkling some of this bet on the moneyline, but the primary play here is plus the points. Take Wake Forest. |
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12-21-18 | Florida International v. Toledo UNDER 64 | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather here looks significant. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of about 28 mph with gusts to 40 or 45 mph during this game. There is also a 50% chance of rain. That kind of weather changes a game significantly. Most defenses fair much better against the run than they normally do in these conditions. Why? The opposing offense is more predictable. FIU's offense is all about getting big plays in the passing game. Those will be much harder to come by with this weather. The FIU defense has done a great job keeping the opposition from breaking big plays. That's important against a Toledo offense that is capable of breaking big plays in the running game. The pace that these two play at isn't very quick for a total set this high. FIU ranks among the 30 slowest teams in the country. Toledo ranks 49th. Both teams will use a decent amount of time between the snaps. Take the under. |
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12-20-18 | Marshall -2.5 v. South Florida | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 233 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Marshall* Marshall has one of the best run defenses in the country. Strong run defenses have done very well against the spread in the past in bowl season. Marshall ranks fifth in the nation allowing only 2.93 yards per carry so far this year. The Thundering Herd defensively line has a big edge in this game against the offensive line of the South Florida Bulls. South Florida fell apart late in the season. The Bulls were never as good as their record when they jumped out to a 7-0 start to the year. This South Florida defense has been terrible against the run. USF is allowing 5.02 yards per carry (102nd in the nation). USF has allowed 34 plays of 30 yards or more this year, so explosive plays can be had against this unit. Marshall's coach Doc Holliday is 6-0 ATS in bowl season. The Thundering Herd should be highly motivated in this game, and Holliday has proven capable of having his team well-prepared. While USF plays this game at home, I'm not sure that is even a plus for them here. They don't get to travel anywhere, and they are playing terrible football. Marshall gets to head south and try to knock off a slightly bigger named team. I'll take the much better defense. Take Marshall. |
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12-18-18 | Northern Illinois v. UAB UNDER 43 | 13-37 | Loss | -107 | 114 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers and Northern Illinois Huskies meet in an early season bowl game in the Boca Raton Bowl. UAB is all about running the football and they take their time between snaps. They can use a bunch of clock getting down the field, and if they are forced to kick a field goal it really helps the under a lot. Northern Illinois is 129th in the nation in yards per play on offense. The Huskies simply can't do much of anything on offense. Northern Illinois has been up against weak MAC defenses all year, and they still didn't have much success. On the other hand, Northern Illinois is a great defensive team. They rank third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That's important since UAB is going to run the ball so often here. Northern Illinois is a tremendous defensive front. They have 50 sacks this year, and they should be in the backfield a bunch. UAB's defensive front is very aggressive, and Northern Illinois often hurts themselves with big negative plays on first down. UAB can take advantage of that to put them in bad spots. This looks like a very low scoring contest. Take the under. |
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12-16-18 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 44.5 | 23-26 | Loss | -109 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks take on the San Francisco 49ers. The 49ers have been a good under team at Levi's Stadium since it opened. The under is 23-14 in their home games since this stadium opened. Divisional home games are 10-4 to the under. Seattle runs the ball as much as anyone in the NFL. The Seahawks are looking to control the ball and use up a lot of time on offense. It has been working very well. San Francisco's defense is a very solid 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. The 49ers offense is certainly limited with so many injuries. Nick Mullens hasn't done a bad job, but he isn't dynamic by any means. The weather here plays a big factor in my reason for taking this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts to 26 mph during the game. It also calls for rain which could be heavy at times. Rain and wind combined is a big positive for the under. Look for an even more conservative game plan from both teams here, and that helps the defenses know what is coming. Take the under. |
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12-16-18 | Cowboys v. Colts -2.5 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 120 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Colts* The Indianapolis Colts have every reason to want to win this game. Indianapolis is hovering on the edge of the playoff race, and they have every chance to make the playoffs if they keep winning. Dallas has essentially locked up the NFC East with their win over the Eagles in overtime last week and with the rest of the division simply falling apart as they have. Dallas is coming off an emotional win, and the Cowboys don't have nearly as much incentive to win this game as do the Colts. The Cowboys need to win just one more game, and they have three chances. The strength of the Colts defense is their run defense. Indianapolis ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Dallas is a run first team with Ezekiel Elliot. The Colts once again have an elite quarterback under center with Andrew Luck playing very well right now. The team is starting to get healthier, and importantly the pass protection of the Colts is very good now. Luck should have plenty of time to throw, and the Cowboys secondary is only mediocre. Take Indianapolis. |
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12-16-18 | Dolphins v. Vikings -7 | 17-41 | Win | 100 | 118 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Minnesota Vikings ATS* The Minnesota Vikings are coming off a disappointing loss on Monday night to the Seattle Seahawks. The Miami Dolphins are coming off an improbable last second win over the New England Patriots. Now, Minnesota is in a spot where they absolutely have to win, and they are clearly the better team. Minnesota has an excellent defense. The Vikings rank fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Miami offensive line is a major weakness, and Ryan Tannehill still isn't 100 percent healthy. Expect the Vikings to get a lot of pressure on Tannehill here. Minnesota's wide receivers are some of the best in the NFL. The Dolphins secondary is very weak. They rank as one of the three worst pass defenses in the NFL. Minnesota should be able to exploit that weakness. The Vikings have played the 7th toughest schedule in the NFL this year according to Sagarin. The Dolphins have played the 30th toughest schedule in the NFL. Miami isn't nearly as good as their record, and the Vikings are better than their record. The number is lower than it should be here because of the two teams recent play. Minnesota has a strong home field advantage, and I expect a good performance in a must win game. Take Minnesota. |
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12-16-18 | Bucs v. Ravens UNDER 46.5 | 12-20 | Win | 100 | 60 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have totally changed their offensive game plan. Lamar Jackson is under center and the Ravens are looking to run the ball as much as possible. Most NFL teams are throwing the ball more than 60% of the time, but the Ravens are running it about 65% of the time in their last three games. Gus Edwards is getting a bunch of carries, and that should be the case again here. Tampa Bay's defense has been much better in recent weeks. The Bucs are far from a great defense, but they aren't as bad as they looked earlier this year. Tampa Bay is a little healthier on the defensive end now than they were earlier this year. Tampa Bay is 20th in yards per play allowed in their last three games compared to 31st for the season. The Bucs are also better at stopping the run than the pass. Baltimore's defense is easily number one in the league so far this year. The Ravens excel at stopping the pass, and that's what Tampa Bay wants to do here. I don't see Winston and this Bucs offense having much success through the air. Tampa Bay has a really weak ground game as well. The weather here could be very helpful. Winds of 10-12 mph with rain showers are expected in the game. That should make the offenses more conservative and predictable. Take the under. |
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12-16-18 | Lions v. Bills -2.5 | 13-14 | Loss | -106 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Buffalo* The Buffalo Bills have been strong defensively all year. Buffalo is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Buffalo's secondary is elite, and Detroit will have to try to throw it around. I don't think Detroit will have much success running without Kerryon Johnson healthy and with a banged up offensive line. Detroit is such a banged up team right now. The offensive line is very banged up. Matt Stafford is still listed on the injury report with his back injury, and Stafford threw for less than 100 yards last week against Arizona. Ezekiel Ansah was easily the best pass rusher on this team, and not having him hurts this defense badly. The Bills have an edge running the football here. Josh Allen has played better as the season has gone along. Buffalo has outgained 4 of their last 5 opponents. The Lions have been outgained by 6 of their last 7 opponents. The Bills are playing better late in the year, and the Lions are limping to the finish. Buffalo should be up for this game at home against a subpar defense. The Bills have played an extremely tough set of defenses this year. Finally, they get a weaker defense. The Bills are the much healthier team too. Take Buffalo. |
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12-15-18 | Middle Tennessee State +7 v. Appalachian State | 13-45 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on MTSU* Nothing is a bigger deal in bowl season than motivation. Which team wants the game more than the other side? I think we have a motivational edge in this game. MTSU has a star quarterback in Brent Stockstill who is being coached by his father Rick Stockstill. When MTSU lost a close one to UAB last time out, they were very emotional. You know they badly want to win Brent's final game with the program. This is a veteran team. MTSU has tremendous coordinators. The Blue Raiders should come into this one prepared to play. Appalachian State lost coach Scott Satterfield to Louisville. He was a great coach, and this team is now playing for an interim coach that is unlikely to get the head coaching job. That isn't a positive in my book. What is Appalachian State's motivational level here? This team isn't playing a huge name opponent, and they are being led by a different head coach. Appalachian State played a very weak schedule throughout the year, and Conference USA has been a good conference ATS in bowl season. The public is backing Appalachian State here, and fading the public in bowl season has been a great long term strategy. Grab the points. Take Middle Tennessee State. |
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12-15-18 | Browns v. Broncos UNDER 46 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 43 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos offense wasn't great to start with, but now they are much weaker without Sanders as their primary wide receiver. Case Keenum isn't a terrible quarterback, but he needs weapons around him. He's short on weapons now. Denver can run the football, and I would expect them to run it even more than normal here. That takes more time off the clock. Cleveland's offense has played very well of late, but they have been up against some very weak defenses. Denver's elite pass rush could pose some problems for the Browns passing game here. Cleveland still is only 18th in yards per play on offense. The Browns have also faced one of the easiest schedules of defensive units so far this year. Mayfield has been good and the Browns offense is much improved, but this is still a tough task for them at Denver at altitude. These two defenses have both faced a very tough schedule of offensive units this year. I believe these two defenses are better than their numbers look right now. Take the under. |
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12-15-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Georgia Southern UNDER 47.5 | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 64 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles rank 130th in the nation in pace of play. They are using about 33 seconds between plays. Georgia Southern is also running the ball on nearly 85% of their offensive plays. They can use up a ton of time getting down the field. Eastern Michigan's defense has had a long time to get ready for the option attack of Georgia Southern. That has to be a positive. The more time you have to prepare for a unique offense, the more it helps the defense. Eastern Michigan also did a pretty good job slowing down Army's triple option. Army only averaged 4.0 yards per carry in their win over Eastern Michigan. Eastern Michigan's offense doesn't have much of a run game at all. They are left to try to throw the ball, but this offensive line is terrible in pass protection. Eastern Michigan often has a hard time recovering from these big negative plays on offense. A big key to this selection is the ability of both teams to prevent big plays. Georgia Southern allowed only 17 plays of 30 yards or more this year (12th best in the nation). Eastern Michigan allowed only 18 plays of 30 yards or more (20th best in the country). Take the under. |
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12-15-18 | Arizona State v. Fresno State UNDER 53.5 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 61 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense has really impressed me in the last couple seasons. This is a very well-coached unit. Fresno State ranks 19th in yards per play allowed. They also rank as a top 12 defense against the pass. Arizona State's passing attack takes a big hit with N'Keal Harry sitting this game out. I expect the Sun Devils to rely more on the ground. While they are likely to get some yards here, I don't think it will come all that easy. Fresno State knows the Sun Devils are without their star wideout and they'll be loading up the box more than normal. The Fresno State offense hasn't been very good running the ball this year. They have been very good throwing the ball, but the Mountain West had some very weak pass defenses this year. I'm not convinced they'll tear up the Arizona State secondary as they have some other teams. I think Arizona State runs the ball much more than normal here and plays conservatively. Both teams play at a slow tempo as well. Take the under. |
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12-15-18 | North Texas +7.5 v. Utah State | 13-52 | Loss | -109 | 61 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on North Texas* The Utah State Aggies lost head coach Matt Wells to Texas Tech. Wells had led this team for a long time, and this is a big change. They now have an interim coach, Frank Maile, for this game only. Gary Andersen has been hired as the team's head coach, but he has said he won't be at this game. David Yost is hanging around to call the plays for Utah State here, but a lot of the coaching staff is already in Lubbock. Utah State is in a very odd position here. Utah State has been a very good team this year, but they haven't really beaten anyone good. They haven't beaten a top 55 opponent this year. The Aggies did beat bad teams they played by large margins, but they weren't very good when playing up. North Texas didn't beat anyone good either, but the Mean Green actually outgained every single team they played this year. They lost a couple games they never should have lost. They come into this one with only a 33% ATS cover rate this year. North Texas' star quarterback Mason Fine said that their two bowl losses the last two years have been gnawing at him. He wants a win badly here. Seth Littrell stayed here and his commitment to this North Texas program has to be motivating to the players. Teams who stop the run well (North Texas allowed only 3.34 ypc this year), and have covered less than 50% of their games have been great bets in bowl season. North Texas fits, and they have the motivational edge. Take North Texas. |
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12-15-18 | Tulane v. UL-Lafayette OVER 58 | 41-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave and the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns both have very solid offenses. These are both offenses that rely on the run, but they both get a lot of big gainers on offense as well. Tulane has a whopping 36 plays of 30 yards or more (14th in the country) this season. Louisiana has been even better with an impressive 40 plays of 30 yards or more. That is ninth best in the country. How are the defenses when it comes to defending explosive plays? These two teams have allowed 34 and 33 plays of 30 yards or more, meaning both of them rank in the bottom 30 in the country in that category. There should be some big plays here. Tulane found a good playmaker at quarterback in Justin McMillan. He has made good decisions in the option offense, and throws a decent ball as well. The Ragin' Cajuns defense was consistently allowing a bunch of yards and points this year. They allowed a whopping 6.39 yards per play. They only held one FBS team below 26 points. The Ragin' Cajuns offense has been great and they are balanced. They put up 42 points or more five times this year. These are explosive offenses and this isn't a total that is all that high. Take the over. |
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12-09-18 | Rams -2.5 v. Bears | 6-15 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The LA Rams are one of the top three teams in the NFL. Are we really sure what the Chicago Bears are right now? According to Jeff Sagarin, the Bears have played the 30th toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year. The Rams have played the 11th toughest. Chicago clearly has a very good defense. The Bears do rely on pressuring the quarterback though, because I don't see their secondary as elite. The Rams offensive line does a good job protecting Jared Goff. The Rams are without Kupp, but they still have good wide receivers who should be able to get open in Sean McVay's offense. He is clearly one of the best offensive minds in the game today. Todd Gurley is arguably the best running back in the NFL as well. The Rams secondary has gotten better as the season has gone along. I don't trust Mitchell Trubisky to beat them consistently here. Trubisky is coming back from an injury and may be rusty. The Rams have a huge special teams advantage in this one, and with the spread at this small of a number, that could be the difference between covering and not covering. Much has been made of the Rams being a California team in the cold, and that narrative has made this price cheaper than it should be. It will be chilly on Sunday night, but there is almost no wind in the forecast. I'll take the much better team laying the short price. Take the Rams. |
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12-09-18 | Eagles v. Cowboys OVER 44.5 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 39 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Philadelphia Eagles offense is better than they were earlier this year. Darren Sproles is still good enough to make some big plays. Golden Tate is a key addition as well. Carson Wentz has more weapons to get the ball to, and with this game played on the fast track at Dallas I see the Eagles throwing for quite a few yards here. While Dallas is excellent against the run, they have been inconsistent against the pass this year. Dallas is an elite running team with a star running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, the Eagles have a bottom five rushing defense in the NFL. Elliot should have a big day here. While the Cowboys passing game isn't very good, they are clearly better with Cooper on the outside, and they have some play action capability at this point. It was 27-20 earlier this year when these two played. Both offenses are clearly better than they were earlier this season. This one is indoors as well which helps the over quite a bit. Take the over here. |
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12-09-18 | Colts v. Texans OVER 50 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Andrew Luck and the Colts offense was averaging 34 points per game in their previous eight games before being shut out last week. I wouldn't expect the Colts to have a dud of an offensive game two weeks in a row. This Texans defense is elite against the run, but they aren't very good against the pass. They have a multitude of injuries in the secondary right now as well, so an already questionable pass defense is even worse. Indianapolis plays at the second fastest tempo of any team in the NFL. Houston's offense has been much better of late. Watson is looking more like the quarterback we saw last year, and the running game has improved. Houston ranks 8th in tempo, so they'll be pushing the pace as well. The Colts defense is at a disadvantage here against the pass. I don't believe they have enough depth in the secondary to prevent some big plays in the passing game. The first meeting between these two was 31-31 before overtime. That game was in a dome and this is in a dome as well. We should see a lot of possessions based on the tempo of each team. I see two passing attacks who have an edge vs. the pass defenses. Take the over. |
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12-02-18 | Panthers -3 v. Bucs | 17-24 | Loss | -112 | 20 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Carolina ATS* The Carolina Panthers must win this game to stay in the playoff race. They know this isn't a game they can afford to lose. Carolina has found a tremendous weapon in McCaffrey out of the backfield both in the run and pass game. They still have Greg Olsen at tight end as well, and he is one of the best tight ends in the game. Cam Newton is playing much better than the did early in the season. Carolina has lost three games in a row. Carolina should have won 2 of those 3 games. Ron Rivera has made some questionable decisions during those games, and they have had some untimely turnovers as well. Tampa Bay is severely banged up. DeSean Jackson being out really hurts their passing attack, since he stretches the field as well as anyone in football. The Bucs defense is still really banged up. They are the worst pass defense in the NFL, and they are in the bottom ten in run defense as well. How are they going to even slow down Carolina? I don't think they will. Carolina has a lot to play for here, and they are the much healthier team. I'll lay the points. Take Carolina. |
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12-02-18 | Bears v. Giants UNDER 44 | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears take on the New York Giants on Sunday afternoon. Chicago is expected to have Chase Daniels under center. Daniels didn't look very good last week under center against Detroit, and the Lions defense is a weak one. I wouldn't count on big things from him here either. The Giants offense is 11th in yards per play in the NFL, but the Bears rank 2nd in yards per play allowed. The Bears are 19th in yards per play on offense, but I expect the Giants to load the box and dare Daniels to beat them throwing the football. Both of these teams move slowly. There won't be all that many possessions in this game. The Bears will be running the ball even more than normal, and the Giants want to run more often than they have so far this year as well. I wouldn't expect many big plays here. Both defensive fronts have an advantage against the offensive line in front of them, and I think there will be more tackles for a loss here than in a normal contest. Take the under. |
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12-02-18 | Cardinals v. Packers UNDER 44 | Top | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 26 m | Show |
*5 Star NFL TOP Total of the YEAR* The Green Bay Packers host the Arizona Cardinals on Sunday afternoon. Arizona ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play. They have the worst passing attack and the worst running attack. Arizona's offensive line is weak, and Green Bay can really get after the passer. Arizona isn't bad on defense. The Cardinals are 9th in yards per play allowed in the NFL. They still have a good amount of very talented players on the defensive end. Green Bay's offensive line has struggled to protect Aaron Rodgers, and I see Arizona making it difficult for them. The weather here is very important. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 34 degrees and 20 mph winds with gusts up to 30 mph. There is also a chance of snow showers during the game (it is likely to be snowy in Green Bay Sunday before this game- and some snow during the game is at least possible). This is a huge plus for the under. It leads to more running and a much more conservative game plan. Arizona shouldn't be able to score very many at all here. The Packers offense isn't what it once was, and Arizona's defense is better than most realize. Take the under. TOP Total of the Year. *Be sure to still use wise bankroll management here- this is just a bigger play than most of mine* Thanks and good luck. |
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12-01-18 | Northwestern v. Ohio State OVER 61 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 44 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense put on a show last week against Michigan. That was the top ranked defense in the country before Ohio State put up 62 points and more than 500 yards on them last week. Last week wasn't the first week the Buckeyes offense has looked good though. The passing attack is excellent with Dwayne Haskins leading the way. Haskins has a rocket for an arm and he has quite a few good receiving options on the outside. The Buckeyes running game has improved some in recent weeks as well. Northwestern's offense has improved toward the end of the year. Bowser has given them at least some decent production in the backfield. This is a team that throws it around often though, and they'll throw it around against a weak Ohio State secondary here. Clayton Thorson is a solid quarterback, and I think he'll have a good game here. Both of these teams push the tempo, so there should be a lot of possessions in this game. Ohio State absolutely needs to win big here and be impressive, so I think they'll have their foot to the floor the whole game. We should see a wide open playbook as the Buckeyes showed last weekend. The Buckeyes defense has been weak all year, and I see Northwestern scoring a decent amount here too. This game is played on a fast track under a dome in Indianapolis which should help the scoring as well. Take the over. |
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12-01-18 | Fresno State v. Boise State UNDER 52.5 | 19-16 | Win | 100 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos and Fresno State Bulldogs know each other very well at this point. They played twice last year, and this will be their second meeting this year. The previous three meetings were all won by Boise State with the following scores: 28-17, 17-14, and 24-17. None of those games were even very close to this total. In a title game, the motivation level should be very high to start with, and you know how badly Fresno has to want to beat Boise State now. The higher the motivation level- long-term it is good for the under. There is a slight chance of snow showers during this game. If that does come to fruition it helps the under ever so slightly in my opinion. Boise State's defensive numbers on the year are disappointing for sure, but they have played much better of late. Boise State has a lot of talent on defense, and I think this group is better than the statistics say. Fresno State has an elite defense, and they are great at not giving up big plays. Both teams play much slower than an average team, and that clearly helps as well. This one should be a great game, and I like the value here. Take the under. |
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12-01-18 | UAB v. Middle Tennessee State UNDER 45 | Top | 27-25 | Loss | -102 | 95 h 55 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* This is the Conference USA title game, and we have two well-coached teams here. MTSU beat UAB 27-3 last week, though that game meant very little to UAB. This is the game that decides the Conference USA title, and I expect a strong effort from both teams. UAB is a very run-heavy team. The Blazers rank 115th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo as well, so they can really eat up the clock as they move down the field. UAB also has multiple injuries on the offensive line. If those guys play they are going to be less than 100 percent. AJ Erdely the team's starting QB, is dealing with a shoulder injury. He'll likely try to play through the pain. MTSU's defensive line dominated UAB's offensive line last weekend. The Blue Raiders defensive front has turned into one of the best in the conference. MTSU's offense is all about the passing game with Brent Stockstill at quarterback. UAB has the best pass defense in the conference. The Blazers are very experienced in the secondary and I expect them to be well-prepared for the Blue Raiders passing attack here. The weather is a big plus for the under. The average of forecasts now calls for rain and winds of about 16-18 mph for this one. That makes MTSU run the ball more and they aren't efficient there. It should reduce the amount of explosive plays. Take the under. |
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12-01-18 | Texas +8 v. Oklahoma | 27-39 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Texas* The Texas Longhorns are coached by Tom Herman. Dating back to his days at Ohio State (offensive coordinator) he is 23-1 ATS as an underdog. As a head coach, he is 12-1 ATS as an underdog and 9 of those 12 are actually outright wins. He's proven as a great underdog coach. That is far from the only reason I'm taking Texas though. Texas proved they can move the ball on Oklahoma in the first meeting between these two. The Longhorns scored 48 points in that one, and they should put up a lot of points here. Even if Oklahoma has a two touchdown lead, the backdoor could be open in a game like this. Oklahoma is amazing on offense, there's no doubt about that. The Sooners are going to score a lot of points here. Oklahoma still has one of the weakest defenses you'll ever see from a top five team though. They allowed 47 points to Oklahoma State. They gave up 40 to Kansas! This is a heated rivalry and I think Texas will be just as motivated as Oklahoma in this game. Some believe Oklahoma has more to play for since they could make the playoff. Texas has a lot to play for too. At this price, I have to take the underdog. Take Texas. |
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12-01-18 | UL-Lafayette v. Appalachian State UNDER 58.5 | 19-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat the Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns 27-17 at home earlier this year. That was a regular season game, and this is the Sun Belt Conference title game. This game clearly means a lot to both teams. The Ragin' Cajuns have a great rushing attack, but Appalachian State's defensive front is very good. App State ranks first in the Sun Belt in yards per carry allowed this year. I think they'll do a good job once again against the Louisiana running attack. Appalachian State has a good offense, but it isn't as dynamic as it was earlier this year. The Mountaineers lost star running back Jalen Moore to an injury, and that hurts the offense quite a bit. Thomas is a good quarterback, but Moore was the star of the show at running back. Both teams play slowly. Louisiana ranks 87th in tempo and Appalachian State ranks 99th in the country in tempo. Both teams run the ball much more than the average team in the country, so there is a lot of moving clock when they play each other. The weather here should be a factor. The average of 4 forecasts calls for 42 degrees with 13 mph winds and gusts of 20 mph or slightly higher. All forecasts are calling for a very high chance of rain as well. Cold rain and wind is a clear positive for the under. Take the under here. |
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11-25-18 | Dolphins v. Colts OVER 50.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 121 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* With Ryan Tannehill getting back on the field for this one, I like the value on the over. Andrew Luck and this Indianapolis Colts offense are firing on all cylinders right now. The Colts having a good offensive line and a good running back in Marlon Mack is making a huge difference. The Colts are playing at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL right now as well. Miami's defense ranks 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins are giving up 6.4 yards per play on the road. The Colts defense is middle of the pack, but they have faced weaker offenses in many recent weeks. Miami does have speed and with Tannehill they have more big play ability. Take the over. |
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11-25-18 | Seahawks v. Panthers -3 | 30-27 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Carolina Panthers have an elite running game. Seattle's run defense has struggled for much of the season. Seattle ranks 28th in yards per carry allowed. Carolina is third in the NFL at 5.0 yards per carry on offense. KJ Wright being out is a big hit to this Seattle defense. Carolina's defense is healthier than they were earlier this year. The Panthers have consistently been better at home on defense in the past few years. Seattle isn't the same team on the road either, and this is still a Seattle offensive line that struggles in pass protection. Carolina has the special teams advantage here, and that shouldn't be overlooked. The Panthers are a perfect 5-0 at home this year straight up. Carolina is 8-2 ATS in their last 10 home games. Carolina is also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a loss. Carolina needs this game after a couple losses in their last two. I expect them to bounce back with the help of a strong running game. Take the Panthers. |
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11-24-18 | Hawaii v. San Diego State UNDER 54.5 | 31-30 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have played 11 games this year. None of them have gone over this total. San Diego State excels at controlling the time of possession, running the play clock down and keeping their defense off the field. Hawaii is a big play offense, but San Diego State is good when it comes to not giving up big plays. The Hawaii defense has been much stronger against the run in recent weeks, which is important since San Diego State will be running the ball a lot here. This is a similar type of game to Hawaii/Army earlier in the year. Army runs it better than San Diego State though, and San Diego State has a better defense. I think we see a game in the 40's as San Diego State gets a lead and then runs the ball and eats up a bunch of the clock. Hawaii plays only at an average pace, and San Diego State plays very slowly. Take the under. |
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11-24-18 | LSU v. Texas A&M -3 | 72-74 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Texas A&M* Since Texas A&M joined the SEC, they are 0-6 against LSU. They have been thumped by them time and time again. The Aggies have only lost one of those games by less than ten points. Here is their chance. Jimbo Fisher's team is better than they look on paper. They have only been outgained in two games this year. They have had some bad luck in close finishes. The Aggies are -8 in turnover margin as well. LSU is +12 in turnover margin. LSU has been outgained in four games this year. The Tigers usually rely heavily on the run, but Texas A&M rates 4th in the nation in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Can LSU's passing attack lead them to a win on the road in a hostile environment? I'm not convinced of it. Texas A&M has one of the best home field advantages in the country. The Aggies host a night game here, and this place will be rocking. This program is in better shape now under Jimbo Fisher, and this is a chance for them to pick up that huge win to jump start things for next season as well. Take Texas A&M. |
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11-24-18 | Arkansas State -10.5 v. Texas State | 33-7 | Win | 100 | 19 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Arkansas State* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have played a much more difficult schedule than Texas State. Arkansas State didn't play up to expectations early in the season, but this team is rounding into form of late. They blew out Coastal Carolina on the road a couple weeks ago, and then won easily against a pretty good LA Monroe team. Texas State just fired head coach Everett Withers. Chris Woods (DC) is the interim coach here. Texas State is 129th in the nation in total offense when adjusted for strength of schedule. They may be without their starting quarterback again this week as well. Late in the season, road favorites have done very well. Many times home underdogs don't have much to play for anymore. Texas State has been a mess for a long time, and I don't see them rallying for one game here either. I'll lay it with the much more talented team. Take Arkansas State. |
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11-24-18 | SMU v. Tulsa UNDER 56.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* SMU has to win this game to become bowl eligible. Teams looking to become bowl eligible in their final game of the regular season have been strong trends toward the under. That certainly makes sense to me because as games means more it tends to help the under. It has surprised me that SMU has actually been better on the defensive end than on offense this year. When Sonny Dykes took over, that isn't what you would expect. However, SMU has been winning games thanks to their defense. SMU's defensive numbers in the conference would make them a top 50 defense in the country. Tulsa is averaging a brutal 4.26 yards per play in the conference. Remember, this isn't a conference with many good defenses either. Tulsa is just that bad on offense. They have no passing game at all. SMU is all about the pass. The Mustangs have a very weak running attack. Ben Hicks and the passing game are solid, but Tulsa is much better against the pass than the run on defense. The weather here helps the under also. Winds of 16 mph with gusts above 20 should make it harder to move the ball through the air. Take the under. |
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11-24-18 | UL-Lafayette v. UL-Monroe OVER 68 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Louisiana Lafayette has a brilliant offense and a weak defense. The Ragin' Cajuns are 11th in the nation in yards per play. They are 107th in the nation in yards per play allowed. This is a team that has a whopping 35 plays of 30 yards or more so far this year. LA Monroe's offense has been a bit disappointing of late, but they tore up this LA Lafayette defense last year, and I think they'll have a lot of success here too. Monroe has had terrible turnover issues in the red zone this year, and with some normalization of those red zone numbers their offense should improve. A back and forth high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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11-24-18 | Southern Miss v. UTEP UNDER 45.5 | 39-7 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners were blasted last week at Western Kentucky. That was primarily because of a ridiculous turnover problem. UTEP's defense has actually gotten a lot better throughout the season. UTEP is doing a good job not giving up big plays. The Miners are 50th best in the country allowing only 46 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. UTEP's yards per play allowed has trended in the right direction inside conference play. Southern Miss has been great on defense this year. The Golden Eagles are 13th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss has allowed only 29 plays of 20 yards or more, which is 5th best in the country. The weather should play a role here too. Winds of about 20 mph are expected in El Paso for this one. Take the under. |
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11-24-18 | Georgia Tech v. Georgia UNDER 61 | 21-45 | Loss | -116 | 117 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs take on the Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets on Saturday. This is a big rivalry game, and we've seen a bunch of lower scoring games when these two get together. Georgia Tech couldn't get anything going offensively last year in this matchup. Kirby Smart is a great defensive mind, and I would be surprised if Georgia Tech's triple option attack has a ton of success here. Georgia Tech's passing attack is terrible. Both teams are very run heavy, and both teams move slowly. In fact, both rank in the bottom 12 in the country in terms of tempo. A slow pace in a rivalry game with a lot of moving clock- I believe this total is too high. Take the under. |
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11-24-18 | Texas Tech v. Baylor OVER 65 | 24-35 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* This number is a case where recency bias has allowed us to get a lower number than we should have on this game. Texas Tech is coming off a really poor offensive outing against Kansas State. The Kansas State secondary is solid though, and it is important to note that there were winds of 20-25 mph in that game. That helped slow down Texas Tech as well. Baylor is coming off a couple low scoring games, but that was against Iowa State and TCU. Those are great defensive teams that are limited on offense. That isn't the type of opponent Baylor has in this game. Baylor has allowed 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Texas Tech has allowed 33 plays of 30 yards or more this year. This one is played in AT&T Stadium, which is certainly good for the over. Take the over. |
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11-24-18 | Purdue v. Indiana UNDER 65 | 28-21 | Win | 100 | 15 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* If you just look at these two teams from a statistical standpoint, this total looks about right. If you look at more of the outside factors, this total appears too high. Both of these teams are 5-6 and need a win here to get to a bowl game. The under trends are strong when one team is trying to reach a bowl game, and they are very strong when both teams are attempting to reach a bowl game. In addition, the forecast calls for winds of 12 or 13 mph. That isn't enough to make a huge difference, but it does have a small effect on the game. Thirdly, this is a very hard fought rivalry. The winner of this game gets the Old Oaken Bucket. It's one of the best rivalry trophies in sports. These two badly want to beat each other, and there is a lot on the line. This total has been bet up to where I have to take the under. Take the under. |
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11-23-18 | Coastal Carolina -105 v. South Alabama | 28-31 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Coastal Carolina* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have a chance to become bowl eligible with a win here, and I'm convinced that means a lot to this team. Read through the quotes from the veterans at Coastal Carolina and they say for this team to play in the playoffs in FCS and then in their second year in FBS to be able to play in a bowl game would mean more than anything to them. I think we can expect Coastal Carolina to be extremely motivated for this game. Coastal Carolina has 4 wins on the road already this year. They have played better on the road than at home. They take on a South Alabama team who has only won 2 games all year, and only one of those was against an FBS team. Coastal Carolina ranks 43rd in yards per carry. They will run the ball early and often here. South Alabama is 113th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. South Alabama is 6-20 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Coastal Carolina is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. Coastal Carolina has performed poorly in recent weeks, but that was against the best teams in the Sun Belt. They should be much better here against a South Alabama team that is one of the Sun Belt's worst, and S Bama has nothing to play for here. Take Coastal Carolina. |
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11-23-18 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green OVER 58 | 44-14 | Push | 0 | 93 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have already wrapped up their side of the MAC. That means they can play wide open in this one. Bowling Green has nothing to play for here other than pride. The less the game means to both teams, the more helpful it is to an over in my opinion. Buffalo's passing attack with Jackson and Johnson are too good for this Bowling Green secondary. Buffalo's defense looked bad last week and I think Bowling Green's uptempo offense can do enough here as well. Both of these offenses have been bad in the red zone, and I think they are bound to have some positive regression toward the mean as well. Take the over. |
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11-23-18 | Nebraska v. Iowa UNDER 53.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Iowa has played some tremendous defense at home this year. The Hawkeyes are giving up 11 points per game at home. Iowa ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Iowa's run defense is a huge area of strength. Iowa ranks third in the nation in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Iowa is allowing only 3.08 ypc. That's important here since Nebraska is a team that relies on running the ball. The Cornhuskers average 5.49 ypc, but I don't see them being able to gash the Hawkeyes defense like they have to many others this year. Iowa's defense has only allowed 23 plays of 20 yards or more all year. That is second best in the country. Iowa's offense is much better in the passing game than the running game. Iowa is averaging only 3.97 yards per play on the year. Nebraska's secondary has been strong, but their run defense has been susceptible. I'm not sure Iowa has the running game to take advantage of that. The passing attacks will be impacted by the weather here. The weather calls for steady light rain and 15 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph during this game. That's a clear plus for the under. Take the under. |
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11-22-18 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 59.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -109 | 23 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have been putting up amazing offensive numbers this year. They have gotten better as the year goes along. Drew Brees is playing fantastic football right now, and his wideouts are excellent. It also helps that the Saints offensive line is tremendous in pass protection. The Falcons rank 27th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Brees torched this Atlanta defense the first time they met, and I think he'll do it again here. The Falcons secondary is more banged up than it was the first time these two played this year. Atlanta still has a very good passing attack, and the one weakness of this Saints team is their pass defense. New Orleans ranks 28th in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Saints pass rush is below average as well. Matt Ryan should be able to have another big day. He threw for 5 touchdowns and no picks in the first meeting. This is a high total, but today's NFL is quite a bit different than it was a few years ago. The offenses have the upper hand based on the rules. This one is played on the fast track in New Orleans. I expect a high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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11-22-18 | Colorado State v. Air Force OVER 58 | 19-27 | Loss | -112 | 73 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force triple option is hard to prepare for any time, but when you have a short week like Colorado State does here, it is especially difficult. Colorado State ranks 124th in the country in yards per play allowed. This is a defense that has struggled badly all season. Collin Hill has done a decent job leading this offense since taking over at quarterback. Colorado State will throw it a lot, and Air Force's clear weakness on defense is their secondary. Air Force is 120th in the nation in yards allowed per pass attempt. The weather looks fine for this one and I see both offenses moving the ball a lot. Take the over.  |
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11-18-18 | Vikings +3 v. Bears | 20-25 | Loss | -120 | 125 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Play on Vikings ATS* The Minnesota Vikings are clearly a top ten team in the NFL. Mike Zimmer is one of the best coaches in the NFL. Minnesota is coming off a bye week, and this is a critical game for them. Minnesota sits at 5-3-1 and just behind the 6-3 Chicago Bears in the NFC North. Chicago has played the easiest schedule in the NFL thus far. The Bears are also first in the NFL in turnover margin. There is at least some reason to believe that they have been fortunate to get to 6-3 this year. The Bears have been outgained in 4 games this season. On the other side, the Vikings have only been outgained in one contest this year. The Minnesota offensive line has done a good job in pass protection this year, and that's important given the Bears strong pass rush. The Vikings pass rush ranks in the top five in the NFL, and Mitchell Trubisky isn't a quarterback I trust to make good decisions when under pressure. Good teams off a bye have done well long-term in the NFL. The Vikings have more talent and a more complete team than the Bears. I'll take the points here. Take Minnesota. |
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11-18-18 | Raiders v. Cardinals -5 | 23-21 | Loss | -111 | 19 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Arizona Cardinals* The Arizona Cardinals aren't a good team, but they are a class ahead of the Oakland Raiders. Oakland appears to be throwing in the towel and hoping to get the top ranked draft pick in the offseason. Oakland hasn't even been competitive in recent weeks. It truly looks like the Raiders are playing the long game and not even caring about this season. Arizona's offensive scheme was terrible earlier this year, but they look some better with Byron Leftwich calling the plays. He's able to take advantage of Johnson's talent in the backfield. Oakland is dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Raiders have made some bad offenses look good this year, and Arizona should have success here. Oakland can't run the ball, so they'll have to be throwing it here. Arizona has a top ten secondary in the NFL though, and they are one of the best pass rushes in the NFL. Derek Carr is going to be under pressure a lot here, and Carr under pressure is bad news for the Raiders offense. His decision making is questionable at best. Additionally, he's without two of the team's best receivers in this one. The Cardinals have advantages at many key positions, and they have been playing hard. I can't say the same for Oakland. Take Arizona. |
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11-18-18 | Texans -3 v. Redskins | 23-21 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Houston Texans ATS* The Houston Texans defensive front is excellent both against the run and when it comes to pass rushing. Washington's offensive line is the most banged up offensive line in the NFL right now. Houston isn't the team you want to play when you are this badly banged up on the offensive front. Washington's defense ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Houston has been much better on offense of late. Watson is starting to play better and having an additional wide receiver with big play potential (Thomas) is a big plus for this team. The Texans have a big team speed advantage here. Washington's offense is 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Houston's defense is 4th in yards per play allowed. Washington has been doing it with smoke and mirrors. I don't think that will work in this one. Take Houston. |
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11-17-18 | UNLV +6.5 v. Hawaii | 28-35 | Loss | -105 | 30 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on UNLV* Armani Rogers is listed as probable for UNLV here. With Rogers, UNLV is a totally different offense. They are a top 20 rushing attack in the country with him playing. UNLV is coming off a game where they stunned San Diego State thanks to a great performance from their running game even without Rogers playing. This Rebels team has much more potential than their record would indicate. Hawaii seems to have peaked early this year and they have slowly gotten worse as the year goes on. They are highly reliant on McDonald and the passing game. Hawaii isn't able to run much at all. The weather here calls for 18-20 mph winds with showers. That hurts the passing team which is Hawaii. UNLV should be able to run on a weak Hawaii defense. Hawaii's run defense is weakened even more now because they are without their best linebacker (shoulder injury). I think UNLV has a real chance to win outright. Hawaii is 14-40-1 ATS in their last 55 Mountain West games. They are 6-20 ATS in their last 26 vs. a team with a losing record. Take UNLV. |
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11-17-18 | Iowa State +3 v. Texas | 10-24 | Loss | -114 | 43 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Iowa State* The Iowa State Cyclones are a very different offense with Brock Purdy at quarterback. They have been a scrappy team capable of upsetting anyone because of their strong defense in the past, but now they are an all around very good team. Their offensive firepower is so much better than it was in the past. Iowa State has played a slightly tougher schedule than Texas this year, and the Cyclones numbers are much better. Iowa State ranks 32nd in the nation in yards per play margin. Texas ranks 87th in yards per play margin. The Longhorns have actually been outgained on the season. Iowa State ranks 64th in the nation in yards per play. They rank 29th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Texas is 77th in the nation in yards per play and 82nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. I think Iowa State is the better team here. Matt Campbell is still underrated as a head coach. Campbell's teams are 29-12 ATS as underdogs. Tom Herman has gotten a lot of praise for his success in the underdog role, but many don't realize how good Campbell has been. I think Iowa State has a good chance of winning this one outright, so sprinkling some of this bet on the moneyline makes a lot of sense to me also. Look for Iowa State's strong defense to be the difference. Take Iowa State. |
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11-17-18 | UTEP +7 v. Western Kentucky | 16-40 | Loss | -105 | 45 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on UTEP* The UTEP Miners have been fighting very hard late in the season. Western Kentucky looks like a team that is ready to be done on the season. UTEP has gradually improved as the season has moved along. The Miners are actually +0.03 yards per play in the conference. Western Kentucky is -0.97 yards per play in the conference. UTEP has been able to throw the ball more efficiently in recent weeks. The Miners defense has improved significantly as well. UTEP is -9 in turnover margin on the season, which has caused them to lose several close games. They nearly upset both North Texas and LA Tech. Western Kentucky hasn't done anything to justify laying this type of number against a team that is still fighting hard. The Hilltoppers have virtually no running game at all. Grab the points. Take UTEP. |
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11-17-18 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt OVER 67 | 29-36 | Loss | -111 | 43 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores host the Ole Miss Rebels on Saturday. Ole Miss has been able to turn just about all of their games into shootouts with their elite offense and very weak defense. Ole Miss has been so successful this year because they are a big play offense. Ole Miss has a whopping 48 plays of 30 yards or more on offense this year. That's because Jordan Ta'amu has a good deep ball, and Ole Miss has the best group of receivers in the SEC. Vanderbilt's offense has been better than most expected this year. Shurmur has been playing well at quarterback, and the Commodores still have a decent running game. Ole Miss has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or longer, which is the 15th most in the nation. Both teams air it out a lot, which helps since the incompletions also stop the clock. Ole Miss won 57-35 when these two played last year. I wouldn't expect that many points here, but I do think another back and forth affair is coming. Take the over. |
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11-17-18 | Connecticut v. East Carolina OVER 65 | 21-55 | Win | 100 | 122 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Over* East Carolina ranks fifth in the nation in pace of play. The Pirates are going to keep playing really fast. East Carolina's offense hasn't been efficient this year though. Holton Ahlers is a guy the coaching staff is high on, and I expect him to improve over time. Ahlers will get a great chance here against a hapless defense. The Pirates offense has been inefficient this year, but they are up against a UConn Huskies defense that is historically bad. UConn is allowing 8.88 yards per play (easily last in the country). Have they gotten better in conference play? Nope. They are allowing an even worse 9.26 yards per play in the AAC. They have allowed a mind-boggling 89 plays of 20 yards or more this year. The East Carolina defense has gotten worse as the season has gone along. The Pirates have allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more. UConn's offense is middle of the road, but with a lot of possessions in this one they should put up enough in this situation. Both offenses have had some bad luck in the red zone- which suggests that positive regression could be on the way especially when facing a weak defense. Take the over. |
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