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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-08-16 | Florida State v. Miami (Fla) UNDER 65.5 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 124 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Hurricanes are playing at a significantly slower pace of late under Mark Richt. Richt's teams have always played at a methodical pace, and the Hurricanes are turning into that team right now. Miami ranks in the bottom 30 teams in the country in tempo. Florida State is just one spot above Miami in my tempo rankings (31st slowest in the country). The Seminoles offense has been inconsistent this year. Francois is a very good long term quarterback, but this is a difficult situation for a youngster. Dalvin Cook is a great back, but Miami ranks tenth in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 2.60 yards per carry. Florida State's offensive line isn't likely to be able to get a good push against Miami. The Florida State defense has been poor this year. They have allowed too many big plays in the passing game. Still, this defense has too many guys who are talented to be terrible all year long. Here's a case where we get two teams who play slowly and we still see a total of 65.5. It's too high. I think this is a game that is played to the high 50's. Take the under. |
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10-08-16 | Alabama v. Arkansas UNDER 51 | 49-30 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide and Arkansas Razorbacks have played two tough games against each other the last two years. Last year, Alabama won 27-14 in Alabama. Two years ago, the Crimson Tide won 14-13 in Arkansas. Two years ago there were only 562 total yards of offense when these two played against each other. Last year, there were only 616 total yards of offense when they met. This has usually been a defensive battle. I think we see a lot of defense again here. The Crimson Tide defense is excellent, and they stop the run very well. Arkansas is always a run first team, and I don't see Bama's defense giving up too much on the ground. Alabama's offense is good, but it isn't yet great. Arkansas has a veteran defense that should be able to at least slow them down. Arkansas plays at the fifth slowest tempo of anyone in the country. Alabama ranks among the bottom quarter of teams in tempo as well. Take the under. *Note- The market has moved this number lower since I placed my bet early in the week, but I would still play this for the same rating down to as low as 48 points. It would be a 3 star play lower than that. Thank you* |
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10-08-16 | Alabama v. Arkansas +14 | 49-30 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Arkansas* The Alabama Crimson Tide are a very good team. Still, I believe this is a difficult spot for them, and the price here is inflated. Before the season, the Golden Nugget had released this line at Alabama -8.5. Arkansas has played about the way I would expect to this point, and I certainly don't see any reason for a 5.5 point adjustment. Two years ago when Alabama came to Arkansas they were outgained by 108 yards and were very fortunate to leave with a 1 point win. Last season, the Crimson Tide won by 13 at home, but it was a 3 point game going into the 4th quarter. Arkansas is the first team that Alabama has faced that runs the ball really well. Additionally, the Arkansas defense is a veteran group, and I expect them to play well in this big night game at home against the number one team in the country. Two touchdowns is too much. Alabama's upcoming schedule is brutal, and Arkansas should fight to the end here. Take Arkansas. |
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10-08-16 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky UNDER 51 | Top | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 123 h 35 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* This number is several points too high. I was surprised to see this line when it was released. I made this total 45 points. Vanderbilt's offense still can't do anything this year. The Commodores have only been able to score when their defense creates a bunch of turnovers and gives them short fields constantly. Kentucky has had some high scoring games this year, but they played a 17-10 game two weeks ago against a South Carolina team that I believe is similar to this Vanderbilt team. The Wildcats offense isn't very good, and Vanderbilt still has a pretty good defense. Vanderbilt moves very slowly and will run the ball consistently and try to milk the clock. With a total set this high, I'll take this one as a top play under. Take the under. |
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10-08-16 | Hawaii v. San Jose State OVER 63.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -103 | 27 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The San Jose State Spartans and the Hawaii Warriors meet on Saturday afternoon. These are two defenses who have been giving up big plays a ton this year. How much? San Jose State has allowed 18 plays from scrimmage of at least 30 yards this year. Only 3 teams in the entire country have allowed more than that. Hawaii is near the bottom of the pack as well, having allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more. Both offenses have 15 plays of 30 yards or more on the year, so in this one we have two offenses who are very capable of big plays on a consistent basis against defenses who give them up regularly. Hawaii has picked up their tempo in their last couple games, and they have found a quarterback for the system in Dru Brown. San Jose State's defense is one of the worst in the nation. San Jose State has a nice playmaker in Kenny Potter at quarterback and he is expected to be healthier in this one, after having an ankle injury last weekend and playing through it. Take the over in this contest. |
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10-08-16 | Air Force v. Wyoming UNDER 57 | Top | 26-35 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 50 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Air Force Falcons pass the ball on only 17.18% of their offensive plays. Air Force is all about the triple option. Craig Bohl and his defensive coordinator have both had a lot of experience defending the triple option. Wyoming hosts this game, and the Cowboys are clearly an improved team. Where are they improved most? On the defensive line. Wyoming is allowing only 3.74 yards per carry so far this year compared to 5.3 yards per carry a year ago. It's quite a change, and the Cowboys are well equipped to at least slow down Air Force. Wyoming is throwing the ball on only 39.79% of their passing plays. The Cowboys are a run first team. Air Force has been tremendous against the run this year. The Falcons are second in the nation against the run this year. They are allowing only 1.84 yards per carry on the season. Wyoming is likely to find it hard to run on Air Force. The fact that both teams run the ball so often keeps the clock running. This is a really high total for a game between two teams who run it often and two defenses who stop the run very well. The two meetings between these two teams since Bohl came to Wyoming were 31-17 and 17-14. In last year's 31-17 game, the score was 14-3 after 3 quarters. In the 2014 matchup, the score was 10-7 after three quarters of play. The under is 8-1 in the last 9 meetings between these two teams. Take the under big! |
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10-08-16 | Notre Dame v. NC State UNDER 65 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish and NC State Wolfpack would likely surpass this posted total in normal conditions, but the latest forecasts show winds of around 20 mph and heavy rain during this game from Hurricane Matthew. While rain by itself doesn't hurt scoring as much as most people think, wind driven rain definitely hurts the passing games. Neither of these teams are particularly good on the ground, and they are going to be forced to run it more than they want to in this game. I expect the weather to play a large role in this game. Also important to note is the fact that both of these teams are playing slower than average tempo-wise. I think the pace slows down even more in the drenching rain and heavy wind. Sometimes you have to make plays based on the weather, and that is exactly what this one is a: a play on wind and rain keeping this one lower scoring. Take the under. *Note- The latest forecasts are looking even worse for this game and the total is crashing. With wind expected at 35 mph, this game should be brutal. I continue to like the under here as long as the price is 56 or higher. Thank you* |
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10-08-16 | Auburn v. Mississippi State UNDER 54.5 | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers are a much different team this year than they have been in the past. When you think of Auburn, you typically think of a fast paced offense. This year, they are actually in the bottom 50 in terms of tempo. You also think of a high powered offense, but they don't have that this season. The Tigers have put up big point totals on Arkansas State and UL Monroe, but against quality opponents they have struggled to score. Mississippi State's defense has been very good against the run so far this year. The Bulldogs have held 2 of their 4 opponents under 100 yards rushing and both of those were home games. They'll be at home here, and I think they can slow down this Auburn rushing attack. Auburn's defense is much better this year, and Mississippi State is missing playmakers on the offensive end. The Bulldogs passing game is poor, and they rely heavily on the ability to run. Auburn has a good front 7 led by Lawson, and I think they will hold their own here. I expect a hard fought game here without many big plays. Take the under. |
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10-07-16 | Boise State v. New Mexico +17.5 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on New Mexico* The New Mexico Lobos are really well coached by Bob Davie. New Mexico has had a lot of success on the ground against Boise State the last few years. This line is an overreaction to the fact that Boise State wants revenge from their home loss last year. New Mexico has gradually gotten better over the last few years, and I don't see any reason to expect Boise State to stuff the New Mexico option this year. Boise State has a very young defensive line. The Broncos haven't played against a good running team yet this year. That changes in this one. New Mexico ran for 505 yards two years ago when these teams met in New Mexico. I'm certainly not expecting that many yards here, but they'll run it enough to keep Boise's offense off the field. Remember, Boise was playing with revenge last week against Utah State as well and they narrowly won that game and the box score showed that was a close game. This is too many points to pass up on the home team. The Lobos are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 against Boise State. They are also 6-2 ATS in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take New Mexico. |
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10-02-16 | Panthers -3 v. Falcons | 33-48 | Loss | -115 | 34 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* We're getting a discount on the Carolina Panthers this week. Carolina is 1-2 on the season so far. The Panthers losses though have come against two extremely good teams in Denver and Minnesota. Last week's Panthers loss to the Vikings was a misleading final score as well. The Panthers outgained the Vikings 306 yards to 211, but turnovers cost them. Cam Newton had a terrible day, and he has really been subpar so far this season. He has faced two of the top three defenses in the NFL though in the Broncos and the Vikings. Atlanta is feeling pretty good about themselves after a win at New Orleans last weekend. The Falcons have been putting up big numbers on offense, but look at who they have played against. The Falcons have gone against the Bucs, Raiders, and Saints thus far. All three of those teams and bottom 10 defenses in the league. Carolina has a top five defense in the NFL, and I expect things to be much tougher for Matt Ryan and the Falcons in this game. The fact that Carolina comes into this one 1-2 makes me like this bet even more. This Panthers team was in the Super Bowl last year, and they really don't want to fall to 1-3 here and get two games behind the Falcons in their division. The Falcons are coming off a short week as well with the Monday Night game in New Orleans as their last game. Carolina is 20-10 ATS in their last 30 following a loss. Take Carolina. |
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10-02-16 | Browns v. Redskins OVER 46.5 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Cleveland Browns defense is likely to battle with the New Orleans Saints defense to see who is the worst defense in the NFL this year. Washington's defense isn't much better. Both of these defenses rank in my bottom five defenses in the NFL. Cody Kessler starts here for the Browns, and while I certainly don't trust him very much, I believe the Browns can move the ball here. Terrelle Pryor has become a weapon for the team, and he should be utilized well here. Hue Jackson is a good coach and he is an offensive minded guy. Look for him to get his team in a position to score several times here. Kirk Cousins and the Washington offense got going against New York last week. Cleveland's defense shouldn't be able to slow them down here either. Cleveland doesn't have a strong pass rush and that puts a lot of pressure on their secondary. Cousins has been able to pick apart the weakest of defense in the past. The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 games. The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-02-16 | Seahawks v. Jets +1.5 | 27-17 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie SMASHER* The New York Jets turned it over 8 times last week. You won't find many worse offensive performances in the NFL at any time. Stick a fork in the Jets? No. In fact, I think the fact that they kept the game so close last week despite 8 turnovers says a lot. In the NFL, when you see such a terrible performance from a team that is mediocre or better, you often see a bounce back in the next week. I think the Jets can have that performance here. The Jets defensive front is elite. The Seattle offensive line might be the worst one in the NFL. Seattle really struggles to protect Russell Wilson, and I expect the Jets to be all over Wilson in this one. Wilson isn't 100 percent, and that should play a role in this game as well. Here's another important reason for making this play. The ticket count here is 50/50, but 78% of the money is on the Jets. The sharp money is siding with the Jets, and I am going to agree. Seattle has a hobbled quarterback and a terrible offensive line. The Jets are anxious to bounce back after last weekend. Take the Jets. |
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10-02-16 | Nevada v. Hawaii UNDER 59.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 47 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Midnight MADNESS* The Hawaii Warriors host the Nevada Wolf Pack in a game where weather should play a major role. Showers are expected throughout the game, but the bigger story will be winds gusting at 25 miles per hour during the game. While rain is often neutral for points in a game, winds are always very good for under bettors. Nevada's offense has really struggled to get going this year. Their efficiency on offense has been far worse than I expected. The Wolf Pack are going to have to run the ball here, and Hawaii will know it is coming. Hawaii is improved on offense, but most of their improvement comes from a better passing game. I don't think that passing game will work with these winds. Nevada has a strong front seven on defense and I think they can make it hard for Hawaii to score in these conditions. This isn't a game I would play the under on in normal conditions, but in weather conditions like this, I'll play the under. One final very telling number here. Of all the bets placed on the total here thus far: 60% of them are on the over, but 74% of the money is on the under. The sharp money has sided with the under. Take the under. |
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10-01-16 | Michigan State v. Indiana OVER 53.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank sixth in the country in tempo. Indiana is going to want to turn this into a high scoring game. They want as many possessions as possible. While you would think a game against Michigan State would have to stay low scoring- look at the recent meetings between these two teams. A whopping nine straight meetings between these two teams have gone over this posted total! Two years ago the score was 56-17 and last year the final was 52-26. The Spartans haven't had any trouble scoring on this Indiana defense, and the Hoosiers are just as bad as ever on defense this year. The entire defensive line is new from last year. MSU put up 36 points on Notre Dame. Notre Dame isn't a good defense this year, but they are certainly a better defense than Indiana. Indiana put up over 600 yards of offense against Wake Forest, but turnovers haunted them in that game. The Hoosiers should have enough offense to keep this one pretty close. The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings. Take the over. |
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10-01-16 | UL-Lafayette v. New Mexico State OVER 64.5 | 31-37 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Larry Rose III is back for the New Mexico State Aggies, and he makes this a totally different offense. New Mexico State's Tyler Rogers is a pretty good quarterback who can make plays, but having Rose in the backfield with him makes this offense much better. LA Lafayette is coming off a really tough 4 overtime loss to Tulane 41-39. The Ragin' Cajuns have an excellent running back in McGuire, and he should run through this weak run defense of the Aggies without any issues. Last year's meeting between these two was 37-34. This year, both of these teams have picked up their tempo compared to last season. This total is set a few points lower than I believe it should be. The weather in Las Cruces is expected to be beautiful for this game, and I think we'll see a high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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10-01-16 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan OVER 57 | 49-10 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Central Michigan Chippewas have a really good quarterback in Cooper Rush. With Rush at the helm, Central Michigan is a team that can create big plays. Central Michigan is 7th in the nation in "explosive" plays, plays of 20 yards or more with 28 already this year. Western Michigan's defense has improved a lot against the run this year, but they are giving up big plays in the passing game. The Broncos have already allowed 4 passing plays of 40 yards or more on the year despite not playing against good quarterbacks. Also, Western Michigan has allowed their opponent to throw for a season high in passing yards in each of their games. On the other side, Western Michigan's offense is as balanced as you will ever see from a MAC team. The Broncos can score on anyone. They have a good quarterback and two great running backs. Davis is an elite wide receiver. The Broncos should be able to move the ball consistently here. Rain in the area is the only reason this play isn't rated higher. I'll temper my enthusiasm a bit, but still a recommend a play on the over. Take the over. |
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10-01-16 | Old Dominion v. Charlotte OVER 58 | Top | 52-17 | Win | 100 | 121 h 37 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA TOP Total of the Month* The Charlotte 49ers and the Old Dominion Monarchs both have horrendous defenses. Both of these teams give up big plays by the bunches. Last year when they met the final score was 37-34. This year, both of the teams are much more experienced on offense. Old Dominion is getting much better quarterback play than a year ago, and the Monarchs should score plenty here. Charlotte has Miami transfer Kevin Olsen at quarterback and he has been up and down, but against this weak ODU secondary he should look good. The 49ers have a couple good running backs who are more than capable of busting some big runs also. I made this total 66 points. A lot of value on the over in this game. Take the over big. TOP Total of the Month. |
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10-01-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Bowling Green OVER 64.5 | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 53 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons defense is awful. They allowed 77 points to Ohio State. That was Ohio State so it is somewhat understandable, but last weekend they allowed 77 points to Memphis. The Memphis Tigers scored 77 points on Bowling Green. The worst part was Memphis had 77 with 14 minutes left and then quit scoring out of kindness. Bowling Green's offense should have more success against an EMU defense that is among the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons still have some offensive weapons from last year's team that was great on offense. Eastern Michigan is playing quicker and has much more talent on offense than they have had in past years. I think this one gets into the 70's. Take the over big. |
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10-01-16 | Navy v. Air Force UNDER 51 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Navy and Air Force both run the same offense. They both run the ball nearly every time they line up. While it is usually really difficult for the opposition to prepare for these offenses, in this case it is easy. They play against it every single day in practice. Navy is one of the slowest paced teams in the country. They often have long 7 or 8 minute drives and that makes a big difference when you have a total like this one. Air Force is slower than the average team as well. Look for the two defenses to understand their assignments well here. With tons of running the football, this clock will be ticking away quickly. Take the under. |
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10-01-16 | Wisconsin +10.5 v. Michigan | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 61 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Wisconsin* The Wisconsin Badgers showed me a lot last week in East Lansing. They started Sam Hornibrook at quarterback, and he is a big upgrade from Houston (and also an upgrade over Stave from last year). Wisconsin won the battle in the trenches against a Michigan State team that is certainly good in the trenches. The Badgers held Michigan State to 6 points in that game. I think the Wisconsin defense is underrated this year, and here they are playing against a Michigan team that is very talented, but they haven't proven a lot so far this season. Michigan's only real test was their game at home against Colorado where they trailed much of the game before winning late after Colorado's QB got hurt. This is a game with a posted total of 44.5 and I'm catching 10.5 points here. Considering the posted total, this is a lot of points. It's also important to note that the weather forecast here is calling for a rainy day on Saturday which could lead to even more running of the football, which I think favors Wisconsin. Take the points and Wisconsin. |
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10-01-16 | Kansas State +3.5 v. West Virginia | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 38 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB ATS Play of Week* The Kansas State Wildcats are a live dog in this one. Bill Snyder is an absolute magician, and it shows in his ATS record as an underdog. Snyder's teams are at their very best when they are dogs, and they perform really well on the road. The Wildcats are 16-5-1 ATS in their last 22 road games vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas State is 20-8-1 ATS in their last 29 games vs. a team with a winning record. They are 14-5 ATS in their last 19 as a road underdog. West Virginia looked very fortunate to beat BYU at home last week. The Mountaineers defense isn't nearly as good as it was a year ago. Howard is a quarterback who isn't consistent enough in my opinion, and this Wildcats secondary is a good one. West Virginia is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. Kansas State's special teams are amazing, and that's something that many people overlook. Big coaching advantage here for Kansas State. The Wildcats are 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. I think Kansas State wins this game outright, but I suggest getting at least three points here as insurance. Take Kansas State. |
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10-01-16 | North Carolina v. Florida State OVER 70 | 37-35 | Win | 100 | 37 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Florida State Seminoles offense got on track in a big way last week against USF. Dalvin Cook ran for 267 yards on only 28 carries last week. The USF defense isn't a bad one either. Florida State had a hiccup at Louisville, but remember they also put up 45 points against a good Ole Miss game in the season opener. This offense is capable of very big things. North Carolina's secondary is good, but the Tar Heels struggle against good running teams (4.97 yards per carry). That showed again last week when the Tar Heels were very fortunate to beat Pittsburgh after the Panthers dominated them on the ground. Expect FSU to have a big game on the ground here. North Carolina's offense plays very fast and they make big plays. The Tar Heels rank in the top ten in pass plays of more than 30 yards. Florida State ranks in the bottom 20 in the nation in allowing explosive plays. The Seminoles defense is a real concern, and I see North Carolina putting up plenty of points here too. Back and forth in this one. Take the over. |
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10-01-16 | Georgia State v. Appalachian State UNDER 52 | 3-17 | Win | 100 | 33 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Georgia State Panthers offense had a really good quarterback in Nick Arbuckle the last couple years. Arbuckle put up huge stats for this team, and the Panthers offense was solid last season. Look at the last two meetings with Appalachian State though, and you'll see that Georgia State could do nothing on offense. Importantly, that was with Arbuckle under center. Georgia State scored 0 points and had only 62 yards of total offense two years ago! Last year, they scored only 3 points. It's hard to see Georgia State scoring many in this game. The Panthers have talent downgrades at some key positions on the offensive end, and Appalachian State has the best defense in the Sun Belt. Another important factor in this game is Appalachian State's pace of play. They rank among the slowest teams in the nation. The Mountaineers should be glad to run the football late to just use up the clock. Marcus Cox is the Mountaineers star at RB and he is doubtful for this game. The Mountaineers will still score plenty of points here, but it definitely is a downgrade. A blowout win for App State with the defense dominating should be expected. The under is 7-0 in GA State's last 7 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 conference games. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-01-16 | Central Florida v. East Carolina OVER 57.5 | Top | 47-29 | Win | 100 | 115 h 38 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates are playing quickly still, and their defense is very weak. UCF has changed the way they play with Scott Frost as head coach. He has termed the team "UCFast". Here is another chance for them to play very quickly against an opponent who wants to do the same. These offenses aren't the most efficient ever, but at a number of only 57.5 I have to go with a big play on the over. My projected number here was 65. With this many possessions for each team, I expect there to be enough big plays to get us past the posted total. Take the over big. *Note- this line has moved since I sent it out to clients early this week- but I still like the play at current levels for a top rated selection* |
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09-30-16 | Stanford v. Washington -2.5 | 6-44 | Win | 100 | 89 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Friday Night Lights Winner* The Washington Huskies were a team I had hoped to back frequently this year, but the media hype surrounding the team made them too expensive for my taste early in the year. Washington nearly lost in overtime last week at Arizona, and now the price for the Huskies has come back down. Stanford is coming off a very fortunate win at UCLA. I don't believe Ryan Burns has proven anything yet, and I see him being a big downgrade from Kevin Hogan a year ago at quarterback. Christian McCaffrey is obviously a freak of nature, but the Huskies should be able to force Burns to do a little bit of something to beat them. The public is taking Stanford in big numbers here, which has allowed me to grab -2.5 on the home team. Remember, this is one of the best home field advantages in the country. Also, Chris Petersen is a great coach who I trust even more than David Shaw. This is a short week for both teams, and the Huskies will have a raucous crowd on this Friday night national TV game. Take Washington. Â |
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09-25-16 | Rams v. Bucs UNDER 42 | 37-32 | Loss | -109 | 37 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Los Angeles Rams rank 4th in yards per pass allowed in the NFL. The Rams front four is excellent, and they should be able to put enough pressure on Jameis Winston to make life relatively difficult on him. Doug Martin is out for this game, and that definitely hurts the Bucs offense. Tampa Bay becomes more one-dimensional without him, and that should help the Rams defense get after Winston even more. The Tampa Bay defense hasn't been great so far this year, but the Rams offense is bad enough that it can make a mediocre defense look good. Case Keenum just doesn't look like the answer to me. Even more discouraging for the Rams has to be the play of the offensive line and the running of Todd Gurley. Tampa Bay's defense is much better against the run (3.0 ypc) than the pass, and I don't see Keenum being a guy who can exploit the Tampa Bay secondary. The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 September games. The under is 4-0 in the Rams last 4 vs. the NFC. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after scoring 15 points or less. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Tampa Bay. A 19-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-25-16 | 49ers v. Seahawks OVER 41 | 18-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Contrarian Play* The Seattle Seahawks offense has been bad so far this year. They have had two games go well under the posted total. That's why the public, which normally bets overs, is taking the under in this one. I'm going to go against popular opinion and suggest a play on the over here. Chip Kelly's San Francisco offense scored 28 points on a good Rams defense and 27 points on a very good Carolina defense. The 49ers play at the fastest pace in the NFL. They'll get plenty of possessions here. Seattle has their chance to break out on offense in this one. The San Francisco defense looked bad last week against Carolina. Seattle is a favorite here by a wide margin, and if the 49ers get down early, they will play extremely fast late in the game. They did precisely this last weekend against Carolina, and that game was a shootout late in the game. I think Seattle can make some big plays on the outside throughout this game. The last meeting between these two was 29-13, and that was before Chip Kelly and his faster tempo came to San Francisco. There won't be many times you'll be able to take over 41 in a game with Chip Kelly as one of the coaches. Too much value to pass up. Grab the over in this one. |
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09-25-16 | Redskins v. Giants OVER 45.5 | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New York Giants gained 417 yards last weekend. They struggled getting the ball into the end zone, but New York's offense moved the ball very well. New York now has three very good receiving options: Odell Beckham Jr., Victor Cruz, and Sterling Shephard. Eli Manning can be very good when given time to throw, and with this many weapons I see the Giants offense being better than expected. The Washington Redskins defense has been torched by both Pittsburgh and Dallas. Pittsburgh has a very good offense, but Dallas' offense is questionable right now and they put up 27 points without being very good in the red zone. Washington's defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Look for Manning to have a big day. Kirk Cousins has been under fire, but he has had some success in the past against the Giants. The Giants defense isn't as good as they have looked so far this year. Both of these teams are playing at a relatively quick tempo. With the total down to 45.5, I think all the value is on the over. The over is 7-0 in the Redskins last 7 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. the NFC. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 250 passing yards or more. A 20-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-24-16 | California v. Arizona State OVER 80.5 | Top | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 125 h 37 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Cal Golden Bears play extremely fast, and they play absolutely zero defense. Arizona State plays almost as fast, and their defense isn't good either. It was 48-46 last time these two met and I see another shootout here. I projected this total at 89 points, so I'm glad to get this number. Cal's Webb is a great fit at quarterback, and he has some nice playmakers around him. The Arizona State secondary is a major weakness. Look at what happened when they played Texas Tech earlier this year. Tons of tempo and the offenses with the edge all night. Shootout on the West Coast here. I certainly don't like to make a habit of taking overs at this kind of number, but it wouldn't surprise me if this game got to 100 points combined with the kind of tackling I've seen out of these two defenses so far this year. Take the over big. |
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09-24-16 | Arkansas +6.5 v. Texas A&M | 24-45 | Loss | -110 | 66 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Arkansas/Texas A&M ATS CASH* The Arkansas Razorbacks have lost two years in a row in overtime to the Texas A&M Aggies. In both games, Arkansas was controlling the game before blowing the lead in the fourth quarter and then losing the game in overtime. First of all, when you get two teams that are going to overtime consistently, you have to at least consider the underdog with the points before anything else. This Arkansas defense is much improved over a year ago, and I see them being able to slow down Trevor Knight. I'm not convinced Knight is the answer for the Aggies. He has completed barely more than 50% of his passes on the year. The Razorbacks defensive line is stout, and they should get pressure on him. Arkansas has a great offensive line and in the running game I believe they can have success against Texas A&M. The Razorbacks are great at controlling the ball and imposing their will. This is a great double revenge spot for Arkansas, and I'll grab the points in what should be another very close game. Take Arkansas. |
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09-24-16 | Bowling Green v. Memphis OVER 62 | 3-77 | Win | 100 | 123 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Memphis Tigers are still playing at a pretty quick pace this year. They use the spread offense. Bowling Green is playing at the ninth fastest pace of any team in the country. Bowling Green's offensive numbers this year don't look impressive, but I think that is at least somewhat understandable. Bowling Green faced a great Ohio State defense in week one. Last week, they played against MTSU in a monsoon, where the field was tearing up and the offenses were stalling out late in the game. The Falcons should still be able to score quite a few in the long term. At the same time, the Bowling Green defense is among the worst in football, and they'll give up a lot of quick scores throughout the year. Take the over. Â |
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09-24-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 68 | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 41 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is going to score a lot of points this year. Tony Franklin is their new offensive coordinator and he is looking to push the tempo at every opportunity. Brent Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and Franklin is great at coaching up quarterbacks. I see huge things ahead for Stockstill. Louisiana Tech's defense lost just about everything from a year ago. The Bulldogs allowed 24 points against lowly South Carolina State two weeks ago, and then Texas Tech put up 59 points on them last weekend. I'm not suggesting MTSU will score 59, but they should score a lot. At the same time, MTSU has been gashed in the running game two weeks in a row. Vanderbilt ran for 231 yards two weeks ago. Bowling Green, who had been bad running the football prior to last week, ran for a whopping 304 yards against MTSU last weekend. Craft is averaging better than 7 yards per carry for LA Tech and the Bulldogs have a long history of producing good running backs. LA Tech should score a lot here as well. Nice weather and two high powered offenses. Take the over. |
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09-24-16 | Vanderbilt +8 v. Western Kentucky | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 38 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Vandy* The Vanderbilt Commodores are catching eight points at Western Kentucky. While Western Kentucky is a pretty good CUSA team, and Vanderbilt is a weaker SEC team, it is still intriguing to get eight points with the SEC team. Vanderbilt's defense confused Western Kentucky in a 14-12 game last year. Ferby is questionable for this one and Wales is doubtful (the two W Kentucky running backs), and that plays a big role in this selection too. If either or both of those guys miss this game, it makes Western Kentucky much more reliant on the passing game. Western Kentucky can still throw it, but the offensive was much more dynamic last year. Vanderbilt got their running game going against MTSU a couple weeks ago, and I think they can do enough in this one as well. The public is taking the CUSA team and laying the points. I'll fade the public here. Take Vanderbilt. |
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09-24-16 | Tulsa v. Fresno State OVER 64 | Top | 48-41 | Win | 100 | 119 h 7 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Fresno State Bulldogs aren't any good this year, but they want to play quickly. That plays right into the hands of the Tulsa Golden Hurricane. Tulsa has played some pretty good defenses this year, and that has kept their numbers down. That gives us line value to take the over here. The Fresno State defense will rank among the bottom 10 or 20 in the nation at the end of the year, and this is a defense that Tulsa's run and shoot offense should carve up. Look for Dane Evans and Keevan Lucas to have huge days. I think the Fresno State defense will be particularly vulnerable to teams who can spread them out and that is what Tulsa is great at on the offensive end. Tulsa gave up the second most points in the country last year at almost 40 points per game. Fresno State should be able to put up enough to get us there. Virgil is a guy who many believe can turn into a solid quarterback in time, and he is up against a weak defense. Take the over big. |
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09-24-16 | Pittsburgh v. North Carolina OVER 67 | 36-37 | Win | 100 | 37 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels always like to play quickly. I don't expect that to change in this one. North Carolina's Mitch Trubisky will improve in this offense as the season moves along. He has plenty of weapons around him, and in this one he is up against a really weak Pittsburgh secondary. Pittsburgh's problem on defense is they are having to send blitzes to get pressure on the quarterback, and they simply don't have enough talent in the secondary to constantly send blitzes. Still, Pat Narduzzi's style is to be aggressive on defense. North Carolina should be able to beat them over the top some as both Penn State and Oklahoma State did in recent weeks. The Cowboys Mason Rudolph threw for a ridiculous 372 yards in the first half alone last weekend. Pitt's offense is improved this year. They have a new system that is taking more chances, and I like what I've seen from this group. North Carolina's defensive line isn't very good against the run, and Pitt can do damage there. Take the over. |
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09-24-16 | Texas-San Antonio v. Old Dominion OVER 51.5 | 19-33 | Win | 100 | 37 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Both of these offenses are better than they were a year ago. In last year's game, the final was 36-31. UTSA's Dalton Sturm is a much improved quarterback, and against a team like ODU he should have plenty of ability to extend plays as he is so good at doing. The Roadrunners have a new offensive system which I believe suits their skillsets better than last year's. Old Dominion has the best offensive line they have had in years. The Monarchs have a very solid group of running backs, and I see them having a big day here. Old Dominion saw their last 7 games last season go over this posted total. In last year's contest between these two, there were almost 1,000 yards. The weather is forecasted to be nice for this one. I have to side with the over in this one. |
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09-24-16 | East Carolina v. Virginia Tech OVER 56 | 17-54 | Win | 100 | 40 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a different team this year. They are spreading things out and playing much faster. Justin Fuente had a ton of success with this style of play at Memphis, and now he is implementing it here. The Hokies have been pretty good so far this year. They put up 49 points against a good Boston College defense last week. They also scored 24 on a good Tennessee defense the week before. East Carolina beat Virginia Tech 35-28 last year. The Pirates will get Virginia Tech's best effort here. East Carolina has been better than I expected this year, mainly because they have a top ten passing attack in the country. East Carolina is looking to play quickly, and that should give them opportunities here. East Carolina's secondary is a weak spot, and I think Virginia Tech can exploit it. The Hokies don't have a dominating defense this year, and ECU should score plenty as well. Take the over. |
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09-24-16 | Kent State v. Alabama UNDER 53 | 0-48 | Win | 100 | 115 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Can Kent score here? Kent State hasn't been able to do anything on offense all year. They can barely score on FCS teams. I'll be surprised if the Golden Flashes put up more than 7 points here. Alabama has no real reason to drive Kent State into the ground here. Rather, it would make far more sense for the Crimson Tide to take care of business, stay healthy, and move onto the next week. Look for a sloppy game where the under cashes in because Alabama is unmotivated. Remember, they are coming off a game where they got their revenge against Ole Miss. Take the under. |
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09-24-16 | Nevada v. Purdue OVER 57 | 14-24 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers are trying to play at a quicker tempo this year. Purdue does have the ability to get yards this year. In fact, they moved up and down the field against a pretty good Cincinnati defense. They just turned it over five times. If they can avoid the turnover, they should be able to score quite a few on a weak Nevada defense. Nevada runs the spread offense, and they have a veteran (Stewart) at quarterback who should pick apart this soft Purdue defense. My numbers made this total 62.5, so I see plenty of value. Take the over. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears -3 | 29-14 | Loss | -121 | 138 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star MNF Eagles/Bears ATS CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles beat the Cleveland Browns at home last weekend. Carson Wentz looked good in his debut. It is really important to keep things in perspective though. Wentz was going up against the Cleveland Browns defense. At the end of the year, the Browns are likely to have one of the 3 or 4 worst defenses in the NFL. Wentz and the Eagles offense won't have the same luxury this week. They are playing on the road at Soldier Field against a much improved Chicago Bears defense. The Bears went out and got Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman to form a tremendous duo at the linebacker position. Chicago will be much improved this year, especially against the run. I see this price being an overreaction to a solid week one performance by the Eagles. Jay Cutler improved last year, and I see him having a similar season to last year again. The Bears have enough weapons around him to allow him to not have to do everything himself. In the early going here, we have the sharps solidly lining up with the Bears. Though about 60% of the bets are on the Eagles, a little more than 75% of the money is on the Bears. Lay the short price with the home team here.Take Chicago. |
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09-19-16 | Eagles v. Bears UNDER 42.5 | 29-14 | Loss | -115 | 65 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Eagles/Bears Total DOMINATION* The Philadelphia Eagles played at the quickest tempo in the league last year with Chip Kelly at the helm, but things will be much different this year. Based on Doug Pederson's background, I expect the Eagles to rank among the five slowest paced teams in the league this year. The Bears have typically ranked in the bottom half of the league in terms of pace of play as well, and I don't see that changing this year. There is no doubt that the Bears defense is much better this year than last season. They have upgraded in a big way at the linebacker position, and I expect Danny Trevathan to have a great year for them. The Eagles defense has no glaring weaknesses, and Philadelphia is going to be much better defensively now that they aren't on the field all the time like they were last season. Wentz was good in his first game, but that was against a terrible Browns defense. Jay Cutler isn't a guy I like to trust either. I see a low scoring battle all the way. The under is 6-0-1 in their last 7 after allowing 15 points or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the Eagles last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-18-16 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 43 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night CASH* The Minnesota Vikings host the Green Bay Packers in a key divisional game. Minnesota is opening up their new stadium here, and the stakes are always high when these two meet. These are the teams expected to compete for the NFC North. The Vikings topped Green Bay on the road to win the division last year. The Vikings appear ready to start Sam Bradford at quarterback in this game. Bradford has only been around the team about two weeks, so he can't know the entire playbook very well. We know the Vikings will play it close to the vest here, because they are already one of the most conservative play calling teams in the NFL (arguably the most conservative). The Vikings have the big edge in the trenches in this game. The Packers have the much better quarterback. I don't think the Packers defense will let Peterson have a huge game here, and the Vikings defense has been solid against Rodgers recently. This looks like one of those very hard fought games where someone wins 17-14 or 20-17. The under is 10-1 in the Vikings last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 11-5 in the Packers last 16 games. Take the under in this one. |
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09-18-16 | Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | 12-19 | Win | 100 | 68 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Houston Texans defense will be one of the best in the NFL all year. They have run stuffers and obviously they have amazing pass rushers all over the field. Kansas City's defense is also one that I believe is better than the average defense in the league. Kansas City had to play a quick tempo in the second half to make their miraculous comeback against San Diego last week, but year after year under Andy Reid they have ranked as one of the slowest paced teams in the league. The Texans have slowed their pace of play down this season as they have a new quarterback in the system. I think both offenses will keep things quite vanilla in this one. Look for a lot of running plays that keep the clock ticking. I expect to see a very close game all the way where the defenses have the upper hand. Take the under. |
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09-18-16 | Titans +6 v. Lions | 16-15 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* The Tennessee Titans should have beaten the Minnesota Vikings last week. If it weren't for two defensive touchdowns from the Vikings, Tennessee would have won that game. The Detroit Lions jumped out to a big 18 point lead, before needing a game winning field goal with 8 seconds left to edge the Colts last weekend. I had the Lions in that game, and I do respect this team, but I feel like the oddsmakers have overreacted in this one. Week two is often called overreaction week, and here I think the snap judgement on both teams is a little off. Tennessee outplayed the Vikings and stuffed the run very well last week. The Lions defense showed some significant issues in the second half against the Colts, and I'm not sure the Colts are very good. The Titans defense shut down Adrian Peterson, and I expect them to make the Lions one dimensional here. It's hard to win games, let alone win games by a big amount in the NFL when you are one dimensional. The Lions play the Packers next week, and this is a potential look ahead spot based on the way the Lions lost on the Hail Mary to Green Bay in their last meeting. Take the Titans. |
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09-17-16 | Hawaii v. Arizona OVER 62.5 | 28-47 | Win | 100 | 67 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Saturday Late Night BAILOUT* The Arizona Wildcats offense hasn't been able to get going so far this year, but I think they have found the perfect tonic for their problems: the Hawaii defense. Hawaii gave up 51 points to Cal. They allowed 63 points at Michigan. They allowed 36 points to Tennessee Martin (an FCS team). Arizona's Anu Solomon is questionable for this game, but I feel confident in either Solomon or backup Brandon Dawkins in this one. In fact, Dawkins is one of the most highly touted quarterback recruits to go to Arizona. Nick Wilson should be able to have a big day here. Hawaii allowed more than 200 rushing yards to Tennessee Martin, and that tells you a lot. The Hawaii offense is definitely improved this year with new coach Nick Rolovich. Woolsey is a decent quarterback who can spread the ball around. This Arizona defense allowed 35.8 points per game last year. I do believe they are some better this year, but they are still going to allow plenty of yards and points. This total has gotten too low based on Arizona's initial problems on offense this year. I'll take the value on the over. |
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09-17-16 | Michigan State +8 v. Notre Dame | 36-28 | Win | 100 | 64 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Michigan State/Notre Dame ATS CASH* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish lost a bunch of talent on defense from last year. Notre Dame didn't look good on defense against Texas in the season opener, and I'm not sure last week's game against Nevada is a good barometer of this unit. Michigan State looked bad in their only game this year against Furman. That's one of the reasons this line sits at this point. Still, this is a Michigan State team that deserves to be respected by bettors when they are an underdog. The Spartans are an amazing 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games as an underdog. Even more impressive is the fact that they have won nine of those 12 games outright. Mark Dantonio continues to be underrated as a head coach. He has had two weeks to prepare for this game since the Spartans had a bye last week. Honestly, you could also look at this as Michigan State had all offseason to prepare for this game, since I highly doubt they prepared very much for Furman. Notre Dame has covered only 20 of their last 54 games as a home favorite. I think this game stays close all the way. Take Michigan State. |
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09-17-16 | Texas State +31 v. Arkansas | 3-42 | Loss | -106 | 50 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Under Radar CASH* The Texas State Bobcats beat Ohio on the road in a wild week one game. I like Texas State's new coach Everett Withers, and I think this is a team that is a little bit better than most people believe. Still, the main reason for this play isn't the fact that I love Texas State by any means, rather it is a play against Arkansas in the spot they are in. Arkansas just won a double OT game over TCU in a wild one. Arkansas lost all the stats battles in that game, and was very fortunate to win. You could call this game a letdown from that one. Additionally, Arkansas plays Texas A&M next week. What has happened the last two times they have played Texas A&M? The Razorbacks have lost in overtime two years in a row. They are definitely looking forward to that game. This is the game in the middle. The sandwich spot game, that shouldn't matter a bit to the Razorbacks. I expect them to coast and win by a solid amount, but this is too many points. Take Texas State. |
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09-17-16 | Georgia v. Missouri UNDER 56 | Top | 28-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 12 m | Show |
*5 Star SEC TOP Total CRUSHER* The Missouri Tigers are playing much faster this year. There is no question about that. The part that I question is whether their offense is efficient enough for totals to be going this high against a good defense. The posted total here opened at 45 points. It' now sits at 56 points. Now, I wouldn't have played the under at 45 points, but I definitely have to play it at 56 points. Missouri is 25th in the nation in tempo, so they are playing quickly. However, Missouri ranks in the bottom 25 teams in the country in terms of offensive efficiency. Drew Lock is only a mediocre quarterback and the Tigers offensive line and running game aren't very good. The Georgia Bulldogs have a defensive minded coach in Kirby Smart. I don't expect to see Georgia get carved up by this faster paced Missouri offense here. Georgia is a very slow paced team. The Bulldogs offensive coordinator came from Pittsburgh, and the Panthers ranked among the ten slowest paced teams in the country last year. The Bulldogs have all sorts of question marks on their offense right now. Georgia doesn't know who to play at quarterback, and that's always a problem. The offensive line wasn't expected to be a problem, but they have been bad so far this year. They didn't even average 4 yards per carry against Nicholls State. Missouri's strength is their defensive line, and I see them being able to slow down this Georgia offense. I know these teams are different this year, but the final was 9-6 last year when they played and it was 34-0 two years ago. I don't see this game blowing up and being really high scoring. My number is 49 points here. The under is 4-0 in Georgia's last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing less than 275 total yards last game. The under is 11-0 in their last 11 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in Missouri's last 5 games following a straight up win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 33-0 angle. Take the under big. |
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09-17-16 | Maryland v. Central Florida OVER 58 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 98 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights are looking to play a very fast tempo this year. UCF has Scott Frost as their new head coach and he's been at Oregon in the past. UCF gets a good chance to play much faster in this one as they take on a Maryland team who wants to play much quicker this year as well with D.J. Durkin at the helm. Maryland put up 41 points against FIU last week, and FIU is a team that slows the game down. UCF won't slow things down, and the UCF defense isn't what it was a couple years ago. With their quicker pace, I expect UCF's defensive numbers to be poor this year. Justin Holman is questionable at quarterback for UCF, so I've kept this down to a 3 star play instead of something bigger, but I believe UCF can score some here regardless of who plays. Maryland's defense is nothing better than mediocre. Tempo is the key in this one. Take the over. |
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09-17-16 | Navy v. Tulane UNDER 51.5 | Top | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 121 h 48 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen and Tulane Green Wave both want to run the ball nearly every play. That much running of the football means the clock will be rolling almost all the time. Tulane runs the option now with new coach Willie Fritz and Navy has a ton of experience running and defending the option obviously. Tulane has slowed Navy down better than the average team in the past couple tries (last year they actually outgained Navy in a 31-14 loss), and their experience defending the option this year can do nothing but help. I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see significant value. Take the under big. |
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09-17-16 | Eastern Michigan v. Charlotte +3 | 37-19 | Loss | -115 | 21 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Charlotte* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are a terrible team, and so are the Charlotte 49ers. There is no question that this is just a downright ugly football game. Still, I think there is some value here. Eastern Michigan is coming off a game where they were beaten up physically by Missouri on the road. Charlotte has played two home games and should be much more rested after coasting to a big win over FCS level Elon last week. Charlotte isn't going to have a chance to win many games this year, but this is definitely a real opportunity for them. The 49ers have a much better quarterback this year, and they return a lot of people from last year's team. Eastern Michigan's starting running back is listed as doubtful here. Eastern Michigan has won 1 of their last 60 non-conference games. Who is Eastern Michigan to be laying a field goal on the road against anyone? It's ugly, but I have to grab the points. Take Charlotte. |
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09-17-16 | UL-Monroe v. Georgia Southern OVER 58 | Top | 21-23 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 42 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* The Georgia Southern Eagles have one of the top three rushing attacks in the country. Georgia Southern's Matt Breida is a monster in the backfield, and he's going to rack up at least 1,500 yards again this year. Both Upshaw and Ellison are excellent at the quarterback spot. This is a potent running attack that can break huge plays against weak defenses. Louisiana Monroe is one of the worst teams in all of college football. Their single biggest weakness is stopping the run. This is a recipe for disaster for them. Monroe's defense is at least as bad as a year ago, and Georgia Southern rolled up 503 yards of offense and 51 points when playing at LA Monroe last season. It won't surprise me if Georgia Southern gets around 50 again here. Louisiana Monroe plays a much different style on offense this year than they did last season. Last year, they were one of the slowest paced teams in the country. New Coach Matt Viator has them spreading out things and looking to play quickly this year. Sophomore quarterback Garrett Smith is a pretty solid quarterback, and I expect him to have some pretty good numbers in this system. Georgia Southern's biggest weakness is their secondary, where they had to replace everyone from a year ago. The Eagles haven't been tested in the secondary so far this year, but I think LA Monroe can get some plays down the field in this one. Last year's game was 51-31 with both teams playing slowly. The defenses are worse on the whole this year, and the tempo will be quicker. The over is 30-13-1 in LA Monroe's last 44 games vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over big. |
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09-17-16 | Colorado v. Michigan UNDER 56 | 28-45 | Loss | -111 | 20 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here is pretty ugly. Showers throughout this game and even more importantly wind gusts of 20 to 25 mph. That should slow things down in this game. Colorado relies heavily on the passing game, and I don't see them having much success throwing the ball in these conditions. Michigan's front seven on defense are too good for Colorado's offensive line. The Buffaloes are unlikely to be able to run the ball here. Michigan plays at one of the slowest paces in the country. Because they have seen 9 straight games go over the posted total at home, the total has been inflated by the oddsmakers on this game. Without the weather, I would have passed here. With the bad weather, I think this one is worth a play on the under. Take the under. |
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09-17-16 | South Florida v. Syracuse OVER 70 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 57 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Syracuse defense looked about as hapless as you could look in last week's loss to Louisville. If it weren't for Louisville turning it over in key situations, they would have scored 70 points or more against this Cuse defense. South Florida's Quinten Flowers is a very underrated quarterback, and he plays a lot like Lamar Jackson from Louisville. He isn't quite as good, but he can do similar things. He'll have a field day against this Syracuse defense that is thin up front and is now missing two cornerbacks due to injuries. Syracuse's offense should just improve over time as Dino Babers has proven to be a great offensive minded coach. Dungey fits the system well. USF put up 48 on Northern Illinois last week, and I think they score that many or more here as well. Syracuse should be able to score enough to get us well past the total. Take the over big. *I had this one projected at 80 points, so even with the line move during the week I still like the over in this game. Thank you* |
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09-17-16 | Virginia +4.5 v. Connecticut | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 45 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Virginia* Who are the UConn Huskies to be laying 4.5 points against any ACC team? UConn is 1-12 ATS in their last 13 games as a home favorite. The Huskies are coming off a tough loss against Navy on the road. That's a game where UConn trailed big and then made a big run and blew the game right at the end. They finished on the one yard line and ran out of time because of poor clock management. Virginia actually looked decent to me against Oregon last week on the road. The Cavs are coached by Bronco Mendenhall now, and I consider him a solid coach. I expect this team to improve as the season moves along. UConn's offense is so bad that it is very hard for them to lay points of any kind, and I expect a sloppy game in this one. I make the game a pick'em, so I'll gladly grab the 4.5 points. Take Virginia here. |
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09-17-16 | Middle Tennessee State -4 v. Bowling Green | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 121 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on MTSU* The MTSU Blue Raiders lost at Vanderbilt last week, but the final score was very misleading. MTSU outgained Vanderbilt 495-344 yards. The Blue Raiders threw for 399 yards in that game. Brent Stockstill is a sensational sophomore quarterback for MTSU, and it's hard to imagine him not carving up this awful Bowling Green secondary. Bowling Green was very fortunate to beat FCS level North Dakota by a score of 27-26 last weekend. The Eagles lost 77-10 at Ohio State in week one. While Ohio State is obviously a very good team, Bowling Green allowed them to set a school record for most total yards on offense in that game. Bowling Green has become a one-dimensional team so far this year, and that's very dangerous. Bowling Green hasn't been able to run the ball. They have offensive line issues and they are just throwing it around. That plays into the hands of MTSU in this one. MTSU is a bit weak against the run, but they have a strong secondary. MTSU has a better team on both sides of the ball. Take MTSU here. |
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09-17-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Bowling Green OVER 69.5 | Top | 41-21 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 36 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders are playing much quicker with Tony Franklin as their offensive coordinator and Brent Stockstill is a great guy to have under center in this type of offense. MTSU should move the ball at will against this terrible Bowling Green defense. MTSU moved it easily against Vanderbilt last week and then had turnovers and penalties. This week, they play a much worse defense. Bowling Green hasn't been able to get the offense rolling this year, but I think they do this week. MTSU is weak on the defensive front and the Falcons play a tremendous uptempo style of offense. There will be a ton of possessions in this game. Take the over big. |
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09-15-16 | Houston v. Cincinnati +7.5 | 40-16 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been home underdogs only 10 times in the past 10 years. They are 8-2 ATS in those 10 games. Houston is definitely a team I respect, but this is a good spot for Cincinnati. The Bearcats have a tremendous home field advantage. This is a midweek game where it is on national television. I fully expect this to be a raucous environment. Cincinnati outgained Houston 589 yards to 427 yards on the road last year. They lost that game by 3 points because of turnovers. Hayden Moore is a good quarterback and the Cincinnati running game is underrated. I see the Bearcats being able to move the ball both on the ground and through the air. While I do think Houston will move the ball a lot here as well, I think them laying more than a touchdown is too much. The Cincinnati Bearcats season win total over was one of my bigger preseason bets, and I think this Bearcats team will have a very nice year. Houston is 0-4-1 ATS in their last 5 at Cincinnati. The Bearcats have had this one circled for a while. Take Cincinnati plus the points. |
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09-12-16 | Rams v. 49ers UNDER 43 | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 66 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The San Francisco 49ers are going to run an uptempo offense under Chip Kelly, but I don't expect them to be very efficient on offense. This is still a team that lacks weapons. Other than going out and grabbing Chip Kelly, I'm not sure this team really did much of anything to improve the offense. The St. Louis Rams have all sorts of offensive problems as well. Case Keenum hasn't proven that he is good enough to win games on a consistent basis. The Rams are almost certainly going to want to run the ball and control the clock more here, and that should help the under. The 49ers defense is a league average defense, and I think that should be good enough to slow down the Rams offense the majority of the game. The Rams defense is a good one. St. Louis might be a bit vulnerable on the deep ball in the secondary, but I don't see the 49ers having the players necessary to take advantage of that weakness. The under is 38-17-1 in the Rams last 56 road games. The under is 18-5 in the 49ers last 23 home games. Take the under. |
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09-11-16 | Lions +3.5 v. Colts | 39-35 | Win | 100 | 62 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Detroit Lions have a really good defensive line. The weakness of the Indianapolis Colts is their offensive line. Andrew Luck is likely to be running for his life early and often in this one. The biggest problem the Colts offense has is they don't really even have a running game for other teams to respect. The Lions will be able to blitz Andrew Luck constantly here, and that should make for a difficult game for him. Detroit's offense lost Calvin Johnson, but there are still plenty of pieces in place here. Matt Stafford has proven over time to be an effective quarterback when he has time to throw, and I think he'll get enough time here. Vontae Davis being out is a huge hit for the Colts secondary. This is a Colts defense that I have ranked as one of the five worst in the NFL, and they are without arguably their most important player. While 2/3 of the public bets on this game are on the Colts, 80% of the money bet is on the Lions. I'll go with the sharp money on the Lions plus the points. Take Detroit. |
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09-11-16 | Bengals v. Jets UNDER 42 | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals lost their offensive coordinator from last year. Hue Jackson could be a pretty big loss for Andy Dalton and company. An even bigger loss is Tyler Eifert. Eifert is key for this offense because he opens things up on the outside for AJ Green. Marvin Jones is gone as well, and the Bengals pass receivers are subpar now. Look for the Bengals to struggle through the air against a good secondary. The Jets are solid up front as well, and I see them making life difficult on the Bengals. The Jets offense isn't filled with stars. It's a group that can get the job done, but it isn't necessarily pretty. Cincinnati's defense has been underrated the last few years, and I believe they'll be good again this season. The Bengals have some talented playmakers on all levels. The winds are expected to be a bit of an issue here, which should mean even more running the football. I expect a very close game that stays under the total. Take the under. |
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09-11-16 | Bears v. Texans UNDER 43.5 | 14-23 | Win | 100 | 33 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Chicago Bears defense got much better with the signings of Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman. The Bears now have one of the best groups of linebackers in the NFL. I think this Bears defense is going to surprise to the upside in the season ahead. Houston is a defense that is obviously one of the best in the NFL. J.J. Watt's recovery has stunned everyone, and the fact that he is expected to play Sunday is a huge plus. The Bears are going through some transitions on offense, and I don't see Houston as a team that will make it easy on the Bears offense. I'm very surprised the number was set so high here, and it seems like the sharp players in the market agree. About 81% of the money so far bet on this total has been on the under. Public players don't play this early, so I see most of that as sharp money. Neither quarterback is all that trustworthy, and we have two of the top ten defenses in the NFL in my book. This one is a strong under play for me. Take the under. |
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09-11-16 | Bears +6 v. Texans | 14-23 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* Who are the Houston Texans to be laying six points right now? We haven't even seen how Brock Osweiler will fit in the system. It's clear to me that he isn't a franchise quarterback, and I think most share that assumption. Why are the Texans getting so much love here? Most likely think the Texans are going to be able to run the ball on the Bears, but I don't see that being the case. With Danny Trevathan and Jerrell Freeman, the Bears brought in two really good linebackers. That's going to make this defense, and specifically this run defense, much better in the year ahead. The Houston offensive line is a mess, and I don't see them opening holes in this one. Jay Cutler made some positive steps last year, and I do believe he is the better quarterback in this game. Six is a lot of points in the NFL. I see this as a game that is likely to be decided by 3 or 4 points. I give the Bears a real shot at an outright upset, but I'll gladly grab the points. The Bears are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Chicago. |
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09-10-16 | Arkansas State +20 v. Auburn | 14-51 | Loss | -106 | 28 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB Sandwich Spot CASH* The Auburn Tigers lost a close one to Clemson last week. Auburn clearly put a lot into that game, and you have to wonder how excited they would be to play Arkansas State here. Making this one even better is the fact that Auburn plays Texas A&M next week and then LSU the week after that. If there is one game in the early season schedule that Auburn would coast through it is definitely this one. Arkansas State should have a very good season in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves are coming off an embarrassing performance in their season opener against Toledo, and I think that performance is giving us extra line value here. The Red Wolves are strong in the trenches (something many smaller schools are not) and that allows them to matchup pretty well with Auburn. This is Arkansas State's huge non-conference game, and they will be plenty motivated. Auburn is 2-10 ATS in their last 12 home games. Arkansas State is 4-1 ATS  in their last 5 after an ATS loss. Take the Red Wolves of Arkansas State with all these points. |
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09-10-16 | Iowa State v. Iowa UNDER 51.5 | 3-42 | Win | 100 | 28 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Total DOMINATION* The Iowa Hawkeyes and Iowa State Cyclones are obviously rivals. When these two meet, there is a long history of low scoring games. The last four games between these two have stayed under the total. None of them have gone higher than 48 points. In fact, the game that went over the total five years ago was a triple overtime game where the score was at 48 points at the end of regulation. Generally, in a rivalry game you see the defenses pick up their level of play. The two teams know each other very well, so there are generally less big plays. I see that type of game here. Iowa State will want to run it a lot with Warren. New Coach Matt Campbell has been all about the running game in his career. I think it continues at Iowa State. The Iowa Hawkeyes always prefer to run the ball, and they always play at one the slowest tempos in all of the country. There should be some long drives that take a bunch of time off the clock here. I will look for this one to stay in the 40's. Take the under. |
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09-10-16 | Georgia Southern v. South Alabama OVER 57.5 | 24-9 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Southern Eagles have the best running game in the country. Matt Breida is one of the most underrated running backs in college football. He will put up some huge numbers this season. Georgia Southern ran for 489 yards last year against South Alabama. The Eagles scored 55 points in that game. They probably won't put up that kind of number here, but I do think they'll score a lot. South Alabama's big weakness is their rushing defense, and that is a very bad problem to have against this Georgia Southern offense. Ellison and Upshaw are tremendous QB's for the system, Breida is a great RB, and they have a very good offensive line. South Alabama did find a much better quarterback this year in Davis. He has some mobility and a strong arm. Georgia Southern returns zero starters in the secondary, and I expect them to get beat deep quite a bit this year. The Eagles are playing a new defensive scheme, and it often takes time to get accustomed to these changes. I see both teams putting up a solid amount of points here. Take the over. |
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09-10-16 | Tulsa v. Ohio State OVER 73 | 3-48 | Loss | -107 | 61 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane played at the second fastest tempo of any team in the nation last year. Their goal is to play even faster this year. They have senior quarterback Dane Evans at the helm, and he knows this offense very well now. Keevan Lucas is back from an injury last year, and he is one of the most underrated receivers in the country. Ohio State decided to pick up the tempo on offense this year. Urban Meyer really likes JT Barrett in a fast paced system. The Buckeyes hung 77 points on Bowling Green last week. I'm certainly not going to suggest they'll score that this weekend, but Ohio State should put up a very big number in this contest. Tulsa's defense allowed about 40 points per game last year, and the Golden Hurricane won't face a team with more offensive talent than Ohio State. The Buckeyes have far too many weapons for Tulsa, and Ohio State scoring less than 55 here would surprise me. The Buckeyes defense is clearly down from a year ago, and the area where they are most down is likely in the secondary. Tulsa should be able to make some plays throughout this game. Take the over. |
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09-10-16 | Nevada v. Notre Dame OVER 60.5 | 10-39 | Loss | -107 | 46 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense was tremendous last week. Especially when Kizer was at quarterback. Notre Dame should be able to do whatever they want against this Nevada defense. The Wolf Pack lost a bunch of guys from last year, and they will be totally outclassed. Nevada is looking to push the tempo more this year, and that's a big reason for this selection. The Wolf Pack have a good ground game and a veteran quarterback. Notre Dame's defense is better than they showed last week against Texas, but they are down quite a bit from a year ago. I see Notre Dame giving up some points late here as they will likely rest the starters for next week's big matchup vs. Michigan State. If Notre Dame puts the 2nd stringers in on offense, I still think they keep scoring against this Nevada team. I expect a 45-21 type game here. Take the over. |
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09-10-16 | Connecticut v. Navy UNDER 45.5 | Top | 24-28 | Loss | -107 | 85 h 50 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Week* Navy's offense worked like a well-oiled machine with Keenan Reynolds at the helm. Reynolds graduated with all sorts of records at the school. Navy's offense was going to be down a good amount this year because they lost him, but now they took another big hit when new starting quarterback Tago Smith went down with a season-ending knee injury in week one. Will Worth now takes over the job and he is a step down from Smith and a huge step down from Reynolds. Navy is up against one of the best defenses they will play this year this weekend. The UConn Huskies have turned into a really good defense under Bob Diaco. Navy only put up 343 yards (they averaged 425) last year against UConn. The Huskies held Army's option attack to 265 yards and 9 first downs last year. This is a defense that appears ready for the triple option. UConn's offense struggled to get going all season last year. They struggled badly against Maine (FCS) last weekend also. The Huskies have no clear identity on offense, and I don't see them scoring very many here. A big key to this game is the tempo that both teams play at. Navy always ranks in the bottom ten in tempo, and UConn is in the slowest quarter of teams in the country. Expect a bunch of running and long drives that eat up the clock. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Week. |
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09-10-16 | Rice +10 v. Army | 14-31 | Loss | -105 | 61 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM ATS Winner* The Army Black Knights are definitely a better team than they were last year. I like their team this year. Still, this line is a classic overreaction from their first game. Army hasn't been this big of a favorite since 2006 when they were an 11 point favorite against Rice (ironically) and they lost outright 48-14. Army deserves to be favored here, but 10 points is way too much. Rice had two extra days to prepare for this game, and that helps a lot against a triple option team. Also, Rice has beaten Army in each of the last two years. Rice Coach David Bailiff said the team took multiple days in the offseason to work on prepping for the Army triple option offense. That should definitely help here as well. The interesting thing about Rice is this is a team that has a terrible secondary, but they should be pretty good against the run. Army can't throw the ball, so that helps Rice's defense quite a bit here. Army benefited from three turnovers from Temple last week. Army had zero turnovers in that game. You aren't going to be plus three every game. Rice has a better offense than a year ago, and their defense isn't even close to as bad as they looked against Western Kentucky (a pass happy team that could expose their weaknesses). Grab the points. Take Rice. |
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09-10-16 | NC State -4.5 v. East Carolina | 30-33 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB Rivalry CASH* The East Carolina Pirates have a lot of change going on right now. They have an entirely new coaching staff. East Carolina got rid of Ruffin McNeill after last season, which was a big surprise to me, and I believe it was a mistake. He had overachieved at this school, and the team had a bunch of injuries last year. Scottie Montgomery comes in and the Pirates have Phillip Nelson at quarterback (old Minnesota QB). Nelson never impressed me very much at Minnesota. East Carolina's offensive line is a major concern here. NC State has an impressive D Line that should end up in the backfield early and often here. East Carolina wasn't tested at all by Western Carolina (a mediocre FCS team) last week. NC State put up a nice performance against William & Mary, a good FCS team. I love the fact that NC State's new offensive coordinator comes from Boise State and he brought his quarterback (Ryan Finley) with him. Finley knows his offense and that is going to help NC State a lot. The Wolfpack have some nice weapons in Dayes and Samuels. East Carolina beat NC State on the road in their most recent matchup in 2013 when ECU was very good and had Shane Carden at QB. The tables get turned in this one. Take NC State. |
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09-10-16 | Central Michigan +21 v. Oklahoma State | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 21 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB MAC Underdog Play* The Central Michigan Chippewas will have one of the best defenses in the MAC this year. Central Michigan was 7-0 ATS in their first 7 games last year. This is a team that plays very hard for coach John Bonamego. Cooper Rush is a good senior leader for the team, and I trust him to make good decisions with the football against an Oklahoma State defense that relies on forcing turnovers. Oklahoma State has a good offense, but they struggled against this Central Michigan defense last year in a 24-13 win. Central Michigan actually led 13-10 in the third quarter in that game. The Chippewas are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. They are also 6-1 ATS in their last 7 non-conference games. Oklahoma State hosts Pittsburgh next week and then plays at Baylor before hosting Texas on October 1st. They are likely more motivated about all of those games than this one. Three touchdowns is a lot, so I'm grabbing the underdog. Take Central Michigan. |
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09-09-16 | Louisville v. Syracuse +15 | 62-28 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star College Football Friday Night THUNDER* The Louisville Cardinals romped Charlotte in their week one game. That game was 56-0 at halftime. I had the over in that one, and that was a matchup where you could see Louisville was going to throw up a huge number on offense. Charlotte has one of the worst defenses in all of college football. Yes, Lamar Jackson looked great and I do expect Louisville's offense to be good this year, but last week didn't prove a lot. Louisville is also in a terrible spot here. The Cardinals play Florida State next weekend. That is a game Louisville has circled, and if there was ever a look ahead spot this is it. Louisville knows that Syracuse doesn't have the talent they do, and they are right about that. Still, this is a game that means a lot to Syracuse. First year coach Dino Babers has made a big deal about fans showing up for this game and how ready the team would be. If you look back at recent history, Syracuse has been a great home underdog. Last year, they lost by only 10 at home to LSU (24 point dog). They also lost by only 10 to Clemson as a 30 point dog. They lost to Pitt by only 3 as a 9 point dog and beat Boston College outright as a three point dog. Eric Dungey fits well into the Syracuse uptempo offense. The Orange should be able to move the ball here. This is an overreaction from the oddsmakers to one game from Louisville, and the public is going to jump all over the Cardinals. We'll go with the contrarian play here. Syracuse is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. They are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 as a home underdog. Grab the points with the home dog here. Take Syracuse. |
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09-05-16 | Ole Miss v. Florida State -4 | 34-45 | Win | 100 | 148 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Florida State Seminoles return all 11 starters on the offensive side this year. I'm extremely high on the potential of this Florida State team. The huge strength here is the running game. Dalvin Cook might be the best running back in the country, and he is definitely a Heisman contender. Mario Pender and Jacques Patrick are great backups who will have good seasons as well. This is a team with a top 2 or 3 offensive line in the country, and with the combination of great running backs and a strong offensive line, it will be very hard to stop this running game. Florida State's quarterback play is a bit of a question mark, but I think they should get better quarterback play than a year ago. The quarterback here is in a great spot, because all they have to do is manage the game. Florida State's defense is very good on the defensive line, and they should pressure Chad Kelly early and often in this one. Kelly is a good quarterback, but he doesn't have the weapons around him that he needs. Losing Treadwell on the outside is a big hit, and the Ole Miss offensive line is a big question mark. Ole Miss returns only 10 starters overall, and there has been lots of clouds over the program in the offseason. The Rebels still have talent, but they have far more question marks than does Florida State. This game will be played in Orlando, and the Seminoles should have a clear home field advantage. I see Florida State winning by a touchdown or more. Take Florida State. |
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09-03-16 | BYU v. Arizona UNDER 63 | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 344 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars are completely changing up the way they play this year. BYU is going to go from a no huddle offense to an offense that huddles up after every play and uses pro style sets. Ty Detmer's offense is going to look to run the ball much more often and use the tight ends. Expect some long drives from the Cougars that use a lot of clock. Arizona will continue to play fast, but I do think the BYU defense is plenty good enough to slow down Arizona better than most teams. This Cougars defense is better than it was a year ago, and Arizona has a bunch of question marks at wide receiver. On defense, I expect Arizona to be better this year. Their new defensive coordinator comes from Boise State where he did a tremendous job. He will make the necessary adjustments to help Arizona slow down BYU here. This game is totaled too high considering BYU's changes, so I'll grab the value on the under here. Take the under. |
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09-03-16 | USC v. Alabama UNDER 54 | 6-52 | Loss | -107 | 101 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star USC/Alabama Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide certainly lost a lot on defense, but I fully expect them to be one of the best defenses in the country again. Several key players actually turned down the NFL. Strong safety Eddie Jackson surprised in coming back, and I expect a huge season out of him. Reuben Foster is set to be a star at the linebacker spot. Alabama is always strong on the defensive front, and this year will be no different. Alabama's offense has a question mark at quarterback. I don't think they have anyone who will play as well as Coker did for them last year. The running backs are very talented here, but they are inexperienced. Alabama's offense plays at a slow pace, and I think they will slow things down a bit more for the new starter in game one. USC has a new starting quarterback as well. Browne has talent, but he isn't likely to have a good game against this strong Crimson Tide defense. The Trojans have a strong offensive line, and I expect their game plan to be to try to run the ball early and often. Running the ball that often takes a lot of time off the clock. The Trojans may have limited success running it, but I don't see them running it well consistently against this defensive front. I think this total should have been 49 or 50, so I see plenty of value in this one. Take the under here. |
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09-03-16 | SMU v. North Texas OVER 66 | 34-21 | Loss | -110 | 266 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Under Radar Total* The North Texas Mean Green brought in Seth Littrell as their new head coach. They definitely needed something new after a really ugly season a year ago. Littrell wants to totally change the way the Mean Green play, and he has brought in Graham Harrell to run the offense here. Harrell was previously a quarterback in the Texas Tech system, and he is implementing the Air Raid offense at North Texas. Alec Morris is an Alabama transfer, and he'll run this offense this year. North Texas allowed 41.3 points per game last year. They return 8 starters here, but is that really a good thing when they were this bad? The Mean Green look weak on every level again this season. SMU Coach Chad Morris looked back at the tape last year and decided he simply didn't like the way SMU failed to push the tempo. He said they played it too cautious last year and things will be different in the year ahead. He said in the offseason, "We tried slowing down last year, and we didn't like it: it's not us." Morris wants the team to be blazing fast this season. How fast? He said, "If the official spotting the ball sets his feet before the ball snaps, we're going too slow." SMU will push the tempo this year. The Mustangs have a very good quarterback in Matt Davis, and I expect big things from him this year. The receivers are much better this year, and SMU should score easily against North Texas. SMU allowed a whopping 45.7 points per game last year, and that was before they pushed the tempo. The defense is more experienced, but there will be more possessions this year, and this stop unit is still terrible. Look for a fast paced high scoring game. Take the over. |
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09-03-16 | North Carolina v. Georgia OVER 56 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 97 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Total Value Play* The Georgia Bulldogs are going to be all about the running game this year. Nick Chubb is expected to play here, and reports are that he has looked very good in practice. The Georgia offensive line is one of the best in the SEC once again this year, and they'll be able to run the football against most teams. North Carolina gave up 5.2 yards per carry last year and 5.1 yards per carry this year. The Tar Heels have had trouble stopping much lesser running attacks than this Georgia one, and I see them getting gashed here. North Carolina has one of the best offensive lines in the country. The Tar Heels lost Marquise Williams and many will expect their offense to be down, but I see this offense being excellent once again. Don't be surprised if they come close to last year's numbers (they averaged more than 40 points per game). The Tar Heels have a great running back in Elijah Hood, and running behind that experienced offensive front, he should have a huge season. Mitch Trubisky was great as a backup last year, and he knows Larry Fedora's system well. This will be the same high-octane offense we saw last year. With North Carolina pushing the tempo and Georgia breaking big runs on the ground, I see a back and forth game that goes over the posted total. Take the over here. |
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09-03-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Arkansas UNDER 56.5 | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 457 h 46 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Arkansas Razorbacks defense returns a ton of talent, and I expect their numbers to be much more like what they were two years ago than last year. Arkansas loses a ton from their offensive line, and the Razorbacks don't have the depth at running back they have had in the past. They also have a new quarterback who will be much weaker than Brandon Allen. Louisiana Tech has historically had one of the better defenses in their conference. They lost Jeff Driskel and Kenneth Dixon (their star QB and RB) from last year and this offense will be significantly weaker. Now, their projected starter has gotten in trouble with the law and won't start this game. The Arkansas offense always moves at a very slow tempo, and that should be the case again this year. Louisiana Tech will likely play slower on offense with Driskel gone as well, especially with a backfield that needs more reps. This total is several points too high. Take the under big. TOP Rated Play. |
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09-03-16 | UCLA v. Texas A&M UNDER 57 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 263 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins will change it up and run a pro style offense this year. Josh Rosen and this offense are expected to play a little slower (they were 13th fastest in the nation in tempo last year. With Paul Perkins gone, the Bruins have less of a running game to lean on as well. Three UCLA offensive lineman from last year are gone. UCLA lost their top two receivers from a year ago. Rosen is good, but the pieces around him aren't as good this year. The Bruins defense should be better than a year ago. Eddie Vanderdoes is an excellent defensive tackle and he missed nearly the whole season last year. The same goes for cornerback Fabian Moreau, who should have a big season this year. UCLA returns nine starters and I expect their defensive numbers to be better. Texas A&M picked up Trevor Knight to run their offense at QB. Knight isn't a guy that I trust just yet. He is learning a totally new offense, and he'll be up against a good defense. The Aggies primary weakness is their offensive line, and that's important here. John Chavis did a great job with this Texas A&M defense a year ago. The Aggies defense should be even better this year. Texas A&M's only question mark on defense is the linebacker spot. The d-line and the secondary both look strong. The Aggies allowed only 22.0 points per game and 380 yards per game last year. This number has risen to a point where I believe the under is a value. We'll take the under in this season opener. |
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09-03-16 | Western Michigan v. Northwestern OVER 51.5 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 380 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* This number actually opened at 56 and has gone down to 51.5. It's pretty rare that I go against a line move like this, but there's too much value on the over for me to pass on this total. Western Michigan's offense is absolutely loaded this year. With Terrell at quarterback they can expect very solid play. Their running backs are better than most backs at the biggest schools in the country, and they have a star at wide receiver in Davis. The offensive front is pretty good as well. Northwestern's defense was excellent last year. The Wildcats lost a lot up front though, and I see their defensive line being down quite a bit from last year. Western Michigan is going to be one of the better offenses Northwestern plays all year. Northwestern's offense was very weak last year, but I expect far better production from them here. The Wildcats have a great back in Jackson, and he should have a lot of room to run against a weak Western Michigan front seven. The Broncos allowed 5.1 yards per carry last year. This should be a close game throughout, and overtime is certainly a possibility as well. I think a 31-28 type final score here should be expected. This number was set too low based on Northwestern being an under machine last year. Things change from year to year and Northwestern is a different team now.  In Western Michigan's last 16 games only 3 of them have gone below this total. Take the over. |
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09-02-16 | Colorado State v. Colorado OVER 54 | Top | 7-44 | Loss | -110 | 364 h 42 m | Show |
*5 Star College Football Friday TOP Total* The Colorado Buffaloes offense averaged 24.5 points per game last year, but I expect that number to go up in the year ahead. Colorado brought in a new offensive coordinator from Texas Tech and he is expected to get this team playing at a quicker tempo. Sefo Liufau is healthy, and I see him being a pretty good fit for this offense. The Buffaloes have good depth at both RB and WR, so the tools are there for this offense to work well. Colorado State lost their entire defensive line and their defensive coordinator from last year. I expect this Rams defense to be down several notches from last year. The Rams are going to give up tons of yards on the ground, and they'll have almost no pass rush. The secondary is a bit weaker, and their numbers should be much worse overall thanks to the very weak pass rush. In last year's game, Colorado State gained 500 yards but turned it over in scoring situations. Colorado State's offense also looks to play at a quicker tempo in the second year of Mike Bobo's system. Both teams should get a lot of possessions because of the quicker tempo, and 54 isn't a high total at all. I don't think the tempo changes are being accounted for by the oddsmakers in this total. Look for a close game where both quarterbacks play well. Take the over big. |
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09-01-16 | Charlotte v. Louisville OVER 61 | 14-70 | Win | 100 | 388 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Louisville Cardinals offense will be much more dynamic this year. Lamar Jackson is the answer at quarterback, and I loved the way he closed out the year for the Cardinals last year. Louisville scored 34 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games last year. They return nine starters on offense this year, and I think this is the year things start to click for them. Bobby Petrino's teams have usually had explosive offenses in the past. In his third year back, and now with the players to fit his system, there should be a big difference. In this particular game, it should be easy for Louisville to break all kinds of explosive plays (gains of 20 yards or more). Charlotte's defense will rank among the worst in the country this year. The 49ers defensive line is going to be totally overmatched here. Charlotte finished last year with the tenth fastest pace of play in the country last year. They are expected to push the tempo again this year. Why are they pushing the pace? I'm not really sure. It doesn't make much sense for a bad team to try to allow their opponent to get more possessions, but that is what they do. Charlotte's offense will definitely be better with Kevin Olsen at quarterback. He was very highly touted coming out of high school, and he is the younger brother of Panthers star Greg Olsen. The Cardinals defense is good, but they are less experienced than last year, and in a blowout they should give up some points. I look for Louisville to top 50 points here, and that makes me like the over. Take the over in this one. |
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02-07-16 | Panthers v. Broncos +6 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 270 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Super Bowl Super CASH* I waited for this number to appear, and now I'll take it. This isn't a fade of Carolina, rather it is simply a play on what I believe is far too much value to pass up. Carolina is a good team, but they haven't been tested in the playoffs yet. Seattle dug a 31-0 hole in the first half due to silly turnovers. Carson Palmer was absolutely awful last game. Palmer looked like he was playing for the wrong team he was handing the Panthers the ball so often. While I know that the Panthers defense is opportunistic, I don't think turnovers like Carolina has benefited from in the past two weeks are things that should be counted on. Denver's defense was the best defense in the NFL this year, and by a wide margin. This team can get after the quarterback really well. Miller is playing at an elite level, and he'll be tough for Carolina to slow down. The Broncos secondary is excellent also. Trevathan doesn't get enough credit for how solid he is, and DeMarcus Ware is obviously a beast as well. This Denver defense is scary good. Carolina's defense is good, but they have given up a lot of yards late in the year. Denver's offensive front has improved down the stretch. Getting six points with the best defense in the NFL in a game with a posted total of only 45 is just too much for me to pass up. Take Denver. |
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01-24-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47 | 15-49 | Win | 100 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFC Championship CRUSHER* The Arizona Cardinals and Carolina Panthers meet in the NFC Championship Game on Sunday night. I'm looking forward to this one. There are some great playmakers on offense in this game. Cam Newton has been amazing this year, and Stewart is underrated as a running back. Carson Palmer has been great all year and the Cardinals have a ton of weapons in the passing game. The Carolina secondary has allowed more big plays late in the season, and that's where Arizona can beat them. I expect Arizona to be able to bust several long plays. Arizona's defense is banged up now, and Carolina has been great at breaking long runs and mixing in the passing game when needed. Also, both of these defenses have scored a lot this year, and some defensive or special teams touchdowns here wouldn't be a big surprise. This is a matchup of the number one and number two scoring offenses in the NFL. A back and forth game. The over is 10-4 in the Panthers last 14 playoff games. The over is 5-1 in Arizona's last 6 playoff games. Take the over. |
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01-24-16 | Patriots v. Broncos UNDER 45 | 18-20 | Win | 100 | 2 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Under* I waited on this one for a long time. I've wanted to play the under, but figured the line would go up, and it finally has. I wanted the key number of 45, and now we have it. This is not a big play, but I do believe it has some value here. The Broncos will have to slow the game down and run the ball a lot to win here. New England's defense is underrated this year, and the Broncos offense isn't going to be able to do much down the field. Take the under. |
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01-17-16 | Seahawks v. Panthers UNDER 44 | 24-31 | Loss | -108 | 44 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Carolina Panthers and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a terrific game from earlier this year. Carolina went to Seattle and beat the Seahawks in shocking fashion with a late comeback victory. Seattle's defense didn't play well early in the season, but they are definitely playing well now. The Seahawks defense rates number one in the NFL in the past month. They are first in the NFL against the run, and Carolina is dependent on running the ball a bunch. Carolina's defense is ranked number four when it comes to stopping the run. Seattle is definitely a run first team. The Panthers should make them work hard for yardage here. A cool day with a slight chance of rain mixed with snow is in the forecast for Sunday afternoon in Charlotte. The under is 5-0 in Seattle's last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 15 points last game.  The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or less last game. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Carolina. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-16-16 | Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 43 | 20-27 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Pats/Chiefs Total DOMINATION* The Kansas City Chiefs offense still isn't good. Alex Smith is a game manager and the running game is important to their success. New England has done a solid job of stopping the run this year, and they will sell out to stop the run here. Jeremy Maclin is questionable and if he plays he will be at less than 100 percent. Maclin is the Chiefs best playmaker and without him being healthy, I don't see Kansas City scoring much here. New England has a lot of question marks on offense. Edelman will play, but is less than 100 percent. Gronkowski is listed as questionable. I think he plays, but he is likely less than 100 percent too. While the Pats should have some success on offense, this Chiefs defense has played exceptionally down the stretch. Heavy rain is in the forecast for early Saturday afternoon here. The rain will likely be letting up during the game, but the field will be sloppy and a 10 to 12 mph wind will hurt the passing games a bit. Take the under. |
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01-10-16 | Seahawks v. Vikings UNDER 42 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 142 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Wild Card Best Bet* The Minnesota Vikings and Seattle Seahawks meet in a rematch of a regular season blowout win in favor of Seattle. This one will be a January games played outdoors in Minnesota. Currently, the forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a temperature of 12 degrees and a 10 mph wind. Minnesota only got 9 first downs in the first meeting with Seattle. The only 7 points Minnesota scored was via a kickoff returned for 100 yards. The Seattle offense had a short field multiple times in that game, and I think Mike Zimmer and his staff will have the Minnesota defense better prepared for Seattle's offense in this one. Seattle plays at the 24th quickest pace of play in the NFL (out of 32 teams). Minnesota plays at the 25th fastest tempo. The under is 4-0 in Seattle's last 4 games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 Wild Card games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 January games. The under is 9-1 in Minnesota's last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-1 angle. Take the under. *Note- This line has dropped throughout the week because of the weather forecast. I would recommend this as a 3 star play at the current price. Thank you* |
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01-09-16 | Chiefs v. Texans +3.5 | 30-0 | Loss | -120 | 39 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Saturday NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Houston Texans defense didn't play up to expectations early in the season, but that changed in a big way toward the end of the season. Houston's amazing defense allowed 6 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games. That included their Monday Night Football against Cincinnati with the Bengals at full strength. Alex Smith is a game manager, and the Texans defense is going to be selling out to stop the run in this game. Kansas City has no history of winning playoff games of late, and Houston is more than a field goal underdog at home? This doesn't make sense to me. Kansas City's 10 game win streak has been against poor teams for the most part, and their win against Pittsburgh during that streak was when the Steelers didn't have Big Ben. How's this for a kicker? This is a crazy, but very interesting statistic. Since 2004, there have been 13 teams that have entered the playoffs on a 8 game winning streak or longer. Those teams have gone 0-13 ATS! The Chiefs are also 0-6 ATS in their last 6 playoff games. A 19-0 angle. Take Houston. |
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01-03-16 | Vikings v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Minnesota Vikings and Green Bay Packers have a lot on the line in this one. In many games in week 17, I believe it is hard to predict where the total will go because the teams aren't motivated. These two teams are going to be motivated. Green Bay looked awful last week, and they should play better here. The Packers defense will try to make Teddy Bridgewater beat them. Can he do it? I'm not sure he can. Green Bay's offense has changed quite a bit in recent weeks as well. With McCarthy calling the plays, the Packers are running the ball more often and using up the clock. The under is 3-0-1 in the Vikings last 4 road games. The under is 4-0 in the Vikings last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The under is 5-0 in the Packers last 5 home games. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-03-16 | Chargers v. Broncos UNDER 42 | 20-27 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Diego Chargers offense is totally one-dimensional. They cannot run the football. Being one-dimensional in the NFL is dangerous against any defense, but against a defense like Denver it is very bad news. San Diego can't protect Phillip Rivers thanks to a ton of injuries on the offensive line. Denver ranks first in the NFL in sacks. Expect the Broncos to be in Rivers' face all day, and he's going to take some big hits. The Chargers are missing several key playmakers on offense, and their defense has actually improved late in the season. Denver's offense is very inconsistent, but the Denver defense is easily the best in the league. The first game between these two was 17-3. I don't think this one gets very close to the total either. The under is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 250 yards or more passing last game. The under is 7-0 in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Denver's last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. the AFC West. The under is 2-0 in the last 2 meetings between these two. A 31-0 angle. Take the under. |
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01-03-16 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 42 | 17-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Jets/Bills CASH* The New York Jets defense is excellent. The Buffalo Bills defense is very talented, but they have underachieved most of the year. I think Rex Ryan will do a good job motivating the defense and his team in general though as they go up against his old team and try to ruin their playoff chances. A key factor here is the weather. There are snow showers expected throughout the day. It won't be a lot of snow that's the big problem though. The wind is the huge issue here. Wind gusts of 30 to 35 mph will make throwing the football extremely difficult. Both offenses are likely to become very predictable running the football a bunch here. That will also keep the clock going. In a game that means a lot to both teams and with poor weather, I see a low scoring game. Take the under. |
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01-02-16 | TCU v. Oregon OVER 78.5 | 47-41 | Win | 100 | 74 h 45 m | Show | |
*Note- Trevone Boykin was suspended a few hours after I made this selection. I would NOT recommend the over now with him out of the game. This game would be a pass for me. Boykin means too much to that team.*Â |
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01-01-16 | Ole Miss v. Oklahoma State OVER 67.5 | 48-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Sugar Bowl 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Oklahoma State Cowboys have a way of making just about every game high scoring. Oklahoma State ranks 95th in the nation in total defense. That's really bad when you consider there are only 128 teams and so many of them at the bottom are terrible teams. The Cowboys are giving up 42.8 points per game in their last five games. Oklahoma State's defense will be tested by Mississippi's speed on the outside. The Rebels have a lot of big playmakers starting with Laquon Treadwell. I expect a bunch of explosive plays from Ole Miss here. Oklahoma State's offense ranks eighth in the nation in passing yards. Ole Miss has been strong on the front seven this year, but their secondary is way down from a year ago. The Rebels have four guys injured or suspended on their defensive front, so they will be thin there. Both teams play with a bunch of pace, so I expect a lot of possessions. The over is 6-0 in Oklahoma State's last 6 games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. team with a winning record. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. A 15-0 angle. Take the over. |
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01-01-16 | Iowa v. Stanford UNDER 53.5 | 16-45 | Loss | -110 | 48 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Rose Bowl Red Hot CASH* The Stanford Cardinal and Iowa Hawkeyes meet in what should be a very physical game in the Rose Bowl on New Year's Day. Stanford's Christian McCaffrey finished second in the Heisman Trophy race, and he'll get the ball a bunch here. Stanford runs the ball a bunch, and they take their time between plays as well. Stanford's pace of play ranks at 122nd out of 128 teams in the country, so they definitely take a lot of time on their drives. Iowa has played a much weaker schedule, but thus far this year Iowa has been very good against the run. The Hawkeyes defensive front is good. On offense, Iowa rarely creates big plays. This is a Hawkeyes team that runs the ball and methodically moves the ball down the field. This is the type of game where I see both teams having long drives that take away 7 or 8 minutes at a time. If they are forced to settle for a field goal a few times on those, as I believe they will, then the under becomes a nice value play. Take the under. |
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01-01-16 | Notre Dame v. Ohio State OVER 57 | 28-44 | Win | 100 | 11 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Notre Dame/Ohio State Total DOMINATION* The Ohio State Buckeyes offense didn't play up to expectations this year. First of all, the Buckeyes started the wrong quarterback for a very long time this year. Cardale Jones has a big arm, but he isn't the best fit for this system. J.T. Barrett gives the team a better runner and a more accurate passer. For the majority of the season, Ohio State couldn't pour on the points as expected, but they seem to have found something in their last game at Michigan. Ohio State played with much more uptempo looks and it helped them wear down the Wolverines defensive front. That's important here because Notre Dame's defense wasn't good against the run this year. Notre Dame gave up 4.52 yards per carry. Ezekiel Elliot and this Buckeyes ground game should have big day. Notre Dame's offense has been underrated by many. I like their big play ability, and Ohio State hasn't faced teams with as many weapons as the Fighting Irish. The Buckeyes defense is very good, but with Notre Dame should break several big plays here. The over is 6-0 in Notre Dame's last 6 following a loss. Take the over. |
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12-31-15 | Michigan State v. Alabama UNDER 47 | 0-38 | Win | 100 | 91 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Michigan State/Bama MONEYMAKER* The Alabama Crimson Tide and Michigan State Spartans play a similar style of football. That should mean a lot of excitement in the Cotton Bowl on Thursday night, especially if you like hard hitting football. I expect both of the defenses to bring their best effort in this one. Michigan State needs this game to be low scoring, and they are going to bleed the clock on offense as much as possible. Michigan State ranks in the bottom 15 in the nation in terms of tempo. Alabama is also slower than the average pace in college football. With both teams expected to run the ball a lot, that is important because it means the clock will be ticking throughout much of this game. Michigan State's defense has been amazing in the past four games. They have allowed 12.5 points per game against some quality competition during that time. Included was their domination against the Ohio State Buckeyes offense that is very talented. Alabama will be able to move the ball here, but I don't think it will come easy, and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals. Michigan State's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and this Alabama defense has been the best in the nation all year long. I don't think Michigan State will be able to score many in this one. Take the under. |
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12-31-15 | Oklahoma v. Clemson OVER 63 | 17-37 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Orange Bowl Bookie BASHER* The Clemson Tigers and Oklahoma Sooners both have explosive offenses. Clemson and Oklahoma both play very quickly as well. Clemson plays at the 29th quickest pace in the country and Oklahoma plays at the 40th quickest tempo (out of 128 teams). With these quick tempo teams on the field together, we should see a lot of snaps and plenty of opportunities for big plays. Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield has been great in the air raid system. I don't think Perine gets enough credit for how good he is at running back though. Since Oklahoma started being more balanced with Perine touching the ball more often, this offense has been much better. Oklahoma has scored 44 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. Clemson has scored 33 points or more in 6 of their last 7 games. The Tigers have the best player on the field in Deshaun Watson as well. The Clemson running game is solid, and I really like Jordan Leggett at tight end for Clemson. The Clemson defense is giving up 27.17 points per game in their last six games. Oklahoma's defense has also given up a lot of big plays down the stretch. The offenses should have the upper hand. The over is 20-8-1 in Oklahoma's last 29 games. The over is 7-2 in Clemson's last 9 games. Take the over. |
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12-30-15 | Wisconsin v. USC UNDER 51 | 23-21 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Holiday Bowl HEATER* The USC Trojans have transformed themselves into a team that primarily runs the football here late in the season. USC has slowed the tempo down as well. Early in the season they ranked in the top 20 in terms of tempo. Now, they are right in the middle of the pack at #61. Wisconsin is a team that runs the ball almost every play. They have to because Joel Stave is not a good quarterback. The Badgers running game has been much less productive this year than they have been in recent years. With both teams running the ball constantly, the clock will be ticking throughout in this one. Both defenses are much better against the run than the pass. Wisconsin is only giving up 13.1 points per game on the year. I see a low scoring close game. Take the under. |
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