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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-16-14 | Seattle Seahawks v. Kansas City Chiefs -1 | 20-24 | Win | 100 | 56 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 NFL ATS Play of Week* The Kansas City Chiefs may be the most overlooked 6-3 team the NFL has seen in the past several years. It seems like the public just likes to assume that Kansas City is doing it with smoke and mirrors and they'll come back down to earth, but they continue to press on winning games. The public is backing Seattle in this one, but the line has moved significantly toward the Chiefs. That tells me this is a sharp money move, and I like backing a play like that. This is a great spot for Kansas City to prove they are for real. This is a really tough place to play for visitors, and the crowd will be rocking on Sunday afternoon. Seattle has covered on the road only once this year. The Seahawks defense hasn't been as dominant this year, while the Chiefs defense is playing great. Alex Smith takes care of the ball and helps his team win. This is a great chance for the Chiefs to make a statement. Take Kansas City. |
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11-15-14 | North Texas v. UTEP UNDER 56.5 | Top | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 102 h 43 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The UTEP Miners have found a formula that is helping them excel. Sean Kugler realized that the team's old strategy of throwing it every down and trying to outscore the opposition was failing miserably, so he changed the way UTEP would play. The Miners now play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the country. They also run the ball a bunch. They attempt to shorten the game and take pressure off their defense. It has worked very well. North Texas has a miserable offense this year. Dan McCarney's team just doesn't have enough good skill position players. The Mean Green can hold their own on defense. Both teams should run the ball a lot here. I made this total 50 points, so I clearly see a lot of value in this one. North Texas should struggle to score very much, and UTEP will have some long methodical drives. Take the under big here! |
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11-15-14 | Auburn v. Georgia -2.5 | 7-34 | Win | 100 | 70 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Auburn/Georgia ATS CASH* The Auburn Tigers are coming off a really disheartening loss at the hands of the Texas A&M Aggies. Texas A&M went to Auburn and upset the Tigers last week which almost certainly dashed their hopes of returning to the national title game this year. That's tough to rebound from in one week. On the other hand, Georgia is still seething from the way they lost that game to Auburn last year. The Hail Mary that was seen over and over by so many people in what was possible the most ridiculous play in college football last year, is still running through the minds of the coaching staff and players. Georgia gets Todd Gurley back for this game, and the Bulldogs are still in the driver's seat in the SEC East. Look for Georgia's motivation and their improved defense to lead the way to a win. A bit of revenge. Take Georgia. |
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11-15-14 | Troy v. Idaho -5.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -103 | 65 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Hidden GEM Special* The Idaho Vandals certainly still have a long way to go to be a good team, but they are making significant progress. Idaho now has an offense that can move the ball against just about everyone. Idaho was very competitive last week against a good San Diego State team from the Mountain West. Idaho now comes home for their final home game of the year (a good motivational spot) and faces a very weak Troy team. The Trojans have put up several clunkers this year, and they don't seem all that interested much of the time, especially when they are away from home. Idaho is going to score plenty of points on this terrible Troy defense. I don't think Troy can keep up. Troy is 1-7-1 ATS in their last 9 following an ATS win. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 after scoring 40 points or more. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 after winning by 20 points or more. A 13-1 angle. Take Idaho. |
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11-15-14 | New Mexico v. Utah State UNDER 55.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 96 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Utah State Aggies are playing with their string quarterback right now. He is doing a decent job holding things together for the team, but he certainly isn't as productive as someone like Keeton or Garretson would be under center. New Mexico has an excellent running game, but the Lobos are awful at throwing the football. The problem for them in this game is Utah State excels at stopping the run. The Aggies know that New Mexico can't throw it, and they will be ready to shut down this Lobos running game. Utah State should be content to kill the clock late after grabbing a nice lead early on here. A lot of moving clock in this one. This total is a few points too high. Take the under. |
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11-15-14 | Georgia Southern v. Navy UNDER 64 | Top | 19-52 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 13 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play of the Week* The Navy Midshipmen and the Georgia Southern Eagles both run the triple option. It is pretty rare to find a game with two triple option teams squaring off against each other, but that's what we have here. I love playing the under in situations like this because these defenses see the triple option every day in practice. The biggest advantage to running the triple option is generally that the opposition never gets to see it so they struggle to prep for it in just a week or two. In this case the opposing defense sees it all the time and they should be much better at slowing it down than the average team. Having said that, both of those teams have very good quarterbacks who are going to make some big plays. There will be points scored here, but I don't think it gets into the 60's. With both teams running almost every play, the clock will tick away quickly. Expect very long drives that eat up a bunch of time. Take the under big in this one! |
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11-15-14 | Clemson -3 v. Georgia Tech | 6-28 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Clemson Tigers get Deshaun Watson back this week. Watson is only a freshman, but he's already a tremendous dual-threat quarterback. With backup Cole Stoudt in charge the last few weeks, Clemson has struggled on offense, but I expect them to improve right away with Watson under center. Georgia Tech's defense has struggled with mobile quarterbacks in the past. Earlier this year, Marquise Williams of North Carolina chewed up this defense and the Tar Heels scored 48 points. Clemson might not score 48 points, but they probably won't need to. The Tigers defense ranks second in the nation and their defensive line is one of the top two or three in the nation. That bodes well for their ability to stop the triple option attack. Georgia Tech is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 games vs. a team averaging 425 yards per game or more. Clemson is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 on the second game of a road trip. A 17-2 angle. Take Clemson here. |
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11-15-14 | Indiana v. Rutgers UNDER 55 | Top | 23-45 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 54 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Big Ten Total* The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack is non existent right now. Indiana had absolutely no depth at quarterback to start the season, and now they are starting their third string quarterback. Zander Diamont has completed less than than 50 percent of his passes, and he has thrown no touchdowns and two picks. Rutgers' defense isn't tremendous, but they have played much better at home. They know Indiana has to run here, so they'll stack up the box. The Rutgers offense has been struggling of late. Gary Nova isn't playing at 100 percent, and that is slowing things down. Indiana used to be a team that would push the tempo in a big way, but they don't do that nearly as much with a freshman third string quarterback under center. Rutgers plays very slowly and we should see a bunch of running clock here. Take the under big! |
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11-12-14 | Ball State v. UMass OVER 59 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 34 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play CRUSHER* The Umass Minutemen really found a gem in quarterback Blake Frohnapfel. He tranferred in from Marshall, and he has been tremendous for the Minutemen. Frohnapfel has 23 touchdowns and has revived an offense that was dreadful the past couple years. UMass is averaging 31 points per game this year. The Minutemen still have one of the worst defenses in the nation though, so they often play in shootouts. UMass allows 35 points per game and their defense is rated number 100 or worse (out of 128) in every major defensive category. Ball State's offense is improved in the last few games with Milas at quarterback. The Cardinals defense has been getting hurt by big plays all year. Both of these teams like to play quickly, so I expect a lot of possessions for both teams. The over is 6-0-1 in UMass' last 7 following a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after running for 100 yards or less last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more of total offense last game. A 15-0 angle. Take the over big! *Note- This is a 5 Star TOP Play for me all the way up to 62 points. This is a 4 star play for me up to 65 points. It would be 3 stars at 65.5 or higher. Thank you.* |
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11-09-14 | St. Louis Rams v. Arizona Cardinals -6.5 | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Arizona Cardinals have outperformed expectations all season. I get the feeling that the oddsmakers still haven't caught up to how good this team truly is. Carson Palmer is playing much better this year, and for the most part he has taken care of the ball. Arizona has a bunch of play makers on the outside that will be difficult for the Rams secondary to slow down. The Rams are coming off a win at San Francisco, but the Rams were awfully fortunate to win that game. St. Louis did very little offensively in that game, and I don't trust young Austin Davis against this very good Arizona defense. The Cardinals are aggressive defensively, and they should force some Rams turnovers in this contest. Arizona continues to make a statement to the rest of the league. Arizona is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a NFC foe. The Rams are 0-4 ATS following an ATS win. The Cardinals are 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs. a team allowing 5.65 yards per play or more. A 21-0 angle. Take Arizona. |
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11-09-14 | Kansas City Chiefs v. Buffalo Bills UNDER 42 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 35 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Buffalo Bills had a bye week last week. The defense has gotten healthier and they should be ready for a strong effort. Buffalo is eighth in the NFL in total defense, and I consider this Bills defense one of the most underrated units in the NFL. On offense, Buffalo is totally one-dimensional now without Spiller or Jackson in the backfield. Kyle Orton isn't a bad quarterback, but he's certainly not a special one either. The Chiefs have the number one ranked pass defense in the NFL, and Kansas City is going to be ready for the throw here. The Chiefs offense is far from spectacular, and they just do what they have to do to squeak out wins. Kansas City will run the ball a lot here, which keeps the clock moving. Buffalo's defensive front is very strong. These defenses are both excellent. Last year's game finished at 36, and another game in the high 30's is what I see here. The under is 4-0 in the Chiefs last 4 games. The under is 6-1 in the Chiefs last 7 November games. The under is 4-1 in the Bills last 5 home games. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two. Take the under. |
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11-09-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Detroit Lions -2.5 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins are definitely coming off an impressive win last weekend against San Diego, but I believe the oddsmakers have put a little too much stock in that win. San Diego was in a really bad situational spot there. Miami really put it to San Diego, but now they go on the road to face a terrific Lions defense. Detroit's front four are pressuring the quarterback really well this year, and Tannehill hasn't shown to be a quality player when under pressure throughout the game. Also important to note is Calvin Johnson and Reggie Bush are expected back in the lineup for the Lions. It's obvious that these two make the Lions a much much better offense. I'm not sure the Dolphins secondary has anyone who can handle Johnson. Stafford has been playing well of late, and the Lions come into this one well rested. This is a short price on a pretty impressive Detroit team that has finally gotten healthy. Take Detroit here. |
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11-08-14 | Oregon v. Utah +8.5 | 51-27 | Loss | -110 | 53 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Oregon/Utah Late Night MONEY* The Oregon Ducks are coming off a huge win over Stanford last weekend. That was a game the Ducks have had circled for a very long time after Stanford has beaten them each of the last two seasons. These are college athletes, and it's hard to not have a little bit of a letdown after an emotional win like that. Rice-Eccles Stadium is one of the best home field advantages in college football, and Utah is no slouch. The Utes lead the nation with 39 sacks and 30 of those sacks are from the defensive line. No line in the nation has been able to get after the quarterback the way the Utes have. The Oregon offensive line has been disappointing this year, and they have several injuries that are slowing them down. Mariota will have a lot of pressure on him here. Utah also has the type of offense that can control the game by running it consistently and keeping the Ducks offense off the field. Utah is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 vs. a team with a winning record. The Utes are 4-0 ATS vs. a Pac-12 foe. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 after throwing for 170 yards or less last game. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games. A 20-0 angle. Take Utah. |
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11-08-14 | UL-Lafayette v. New Mexico State OVER 64 | 44-16 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The New Mexico State Aggies defense ranks dead last in the nation when it comes to stopping the run. New Mexico State is allowing an eye-popping 325 yards per game on the ground! That's just ridiculous, and the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns averaged 6.5 yards per carry last year in the meeting between these two. Lafayette should rumble all over them with their running game in this one as well. New Mexico State's offense put up 35 points last year against Lafayette, and while it might be hard for them to reach that number here, they should score plenty against a Lafayette defense that isn't good. Expect lots of big plays from both teams in this game. The over is 4-0 in Lafayette's last 4 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game. The over is 7-0 in New Mexico State's last 7 after gaining 280 yards or more through the air last game. The over is 11-1 in their last 12 after allowing 170 yards passing or less last game. The over is 10-1 in the Aggies last 11 vs. a team with a winning record. A 32-2 angle. Take the over. |
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11-08-14 | Alabama v. LSU UNDER 45.5 | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 50 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star Alabama/LSU Total DOMINATION* The Alabama Crimson Tide and the LSU Tigers are similar teams in terms of style. Both teams like to play slowly and win with their strong defense. Alabama plays at a slower pace than any other power conference team in the entire nation. LSU's offense really can't throw the football much at all this year, and the Tigers are totally reliant on the running game. Alabama's rushing defense is ranked second in the nation when it comes to stopping the run allowing only 77.6 yards per game. LSU is going to have to run the football to score many points here, and I don't think they'll be able to do it. LSU's defense struggled early in the year, but the Tigers are very talented on the defensive end and they are playing much better of late. This shapes up to be a game where both teams look to run the ball often, which will keep the clock rolling. A low scoring hard hitting game. Take the under. |
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11-08-14 | Louisville v. Boston College UNDER 46 | 38-19 | Loss | -106 | 99 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Louisville Cardinals defense played a bad second half last week against Florida State, and that cost them an upset victory. Fortunately for them, they won't have to face an offense the caliber of Florida State this week. Louisville's defense is still one of the best in the country. The Boston College Eagles defense is playing really hard for Steve Addazio, and I think you have to be impressed with the job he is doing with this team. Both of these teams struggle throwing the ball. There should be a bunch of running in this game. The strength of both defenses is stopping the run. I had this one lined at 42 points, so I see several points of value on this play. The under is 4-0 in the Cardinals last 4 road games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 November games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after throwing for 280 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-08-14 | Michigan v. Northwestern UNDER 41 | 10-9 | Win | 100 | 95 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total DOMINATION* The Northwestern Wildcats offense has been pitiful of late. Michigan's offense has been awful all year long. Don't let Michigan's decent offensive performance last week fool you. That was against an Indiana defense that is among the worst in the nation. Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and that's the only reason the Wildcats have been able to hang around in most of their games. Michigan's defense is ninth in the nation in total defense. That will probably surprise a lot of people to see that, but it just shows how poor their offense has been. The Wolverines defense is fine, but the offense is in lots of trouble. Last year when these two met, there were a grand total of 18 points scored in regulation (all field goals). Expect another ugly game here. Take the under. |
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11-08-14 | Notre Dame v. Arizona State OVER 60 | 31-55 | Win | 100 | 47 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Totals Takedown* The Arizona State Sun Devils defense isn't very good. They have looked better in recent weeks, but that was against teams that don't have a good offense. It's one to slow down Utah (one-dimensional), Washington (were without their starting quarterback), and Stanford (poor offensively this year), but it's going to be a whole different thing to try to slow down the Notre Dame offense. Everett Golson has this offense moving well against everyone. I see no reason to believe Arizona State will slow them down. The Notre Dame defense looked good early in the year, but they have been exposed of late. In their past three games they have allowed 43, 31, and 39 points in their last three games. Taylor Kelly is getting healthier and the Sun Devils have plenty of weapons offensively. Last year's game finished 37-34, and I see a similar type of game here. Take the over. |
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11-08-14 | Duke v. Syracuse UNDER 51.5 | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 43 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Syracuse Orange have been really bad on offense all year, and now they are going to have a third string quarterback starting in this one. I don't think that will help anything here. Duke is going to load up the box and force Syracuse to have to throw it, and they likely won't be able to. While the Syracuse offense is in a lot of trouble here, the Orange have been excellent on the defensive end. The strength of the Syracuse defense is their front seven, and that's very big for the under here since Duke is primarily a running team. Duke isn't as good as their record would indicate, and I don't think they'll run away with this one. I had this total set at 47 points. Take the under in this contest. |
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11-08-14 | Iowa v. Minnesota UNDER 45.5 | 14-51 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Golden Gophers overachieve every single year. Why are they able to do that so consistently? Jerry Kill is a really good coach, and the coaching staff around him is great at getting the most out of the talent they have. Iowa's defense seems to reload and be solid against the run every single year. The Minnesota Golden Gophers absolutely cannot throw the football, and Iowa's defensive coaches know that. They are going to load the box and make it really hard to run the ball. Iowa's physicality in the defensive front seven is going to be tough for Minnesota to match. Iowa's offense has looked better of late, but they haven't played all that well on the road in the past couple seasons. Minnesota's defense always plays hard. The under is 5-0 in the Hawkeyes last 5 games following a win by 20 points or more. The under is 5-0 in Minnesota's last 5 after giving up 170 yards or less in the passing game. The under is 4-0 in Minnesota's last 4 after a loss. The under is 4-0 in the Gophers last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 4-0-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-08-14 | SMU v. Tulsa -13.5 | 28-38 | Loss | -106 | 42 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB ATS Value Play* The SMU Mustangs are just a totally hapless team right now. SMU's closest game this year was a 21 point loss. The Mustangs haven't won a game, and obviously they haven't been even close. Tulsa is ranked number 18 in the nation in passing yards, and the Golden Hurricane absolutely have shown they can move the football and score points. SMU allows 48 points per game, so Tulsa shouldn't have trouble on offense in this game. The SMU offense is averaging a pathetic 7 points per game this year. Tulsa has been close all year long, and this is the perfect opportunity for them to pick up a big win. Tulsa wins going away. Take Tulsa. |
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11-02-14 | Baltimore Ravens v. Pittsburgh Steelers OVER 47 | 23-43 | Win | 100 | 127 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense that was a mess when these two teams met earlier this year is now firing on all cylinders. Big Ben and his solid group of wide receivers will make plenty of plays in this one. The Steelers running game has been better than expected this year as well. Joe Flacco is playing some terrific football of late, and the Ravens offense is playing at a different pace now than they have in the past. Baltimore ranks sixth in the NFL in tempo, so they are getting off a lot of snaps. I see value in this number because of the past history of these teams. When you think of Steelers vs. Ravens you think defense and lots of hard hits. These defenses aren't what they used to be, and both of the offenses are better. The winner of this game is going to have to put up a solid amount of points. The over is 4-0 in the Ravens last 4 games on grass. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 home games. The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games vs. a team with a winning record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. |
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11-02-14 | Philadelphia Eagles -119 v. Houston Texans | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 120 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Moneyline CASH* The Houston Texans offense hasn't impressed me this year. Philadelphia took a while to get going offensively, but they are playing well on that side of the ball right now. Nick Foles is forcing a few too many throws, but outside of turnovers the Eagles have moved it really well of late. Philadelphia really outplayed Arizona on the road last week and rolled up more than 500 yards of offense on a good Cardinals defense. Philadelphia's defense isn't particularly good, but they have been opportunistic. The Eagles also have a big advantage when it comes to special teams. The return of Darren Sproles in this game helps Philadelphia in a big way. Take the Eagles on the moneyline. |
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11-02-14 | Arizona Cardinals +127 v. Dallas Cowboys | 28-17 | Win | 127 | 11 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Cardinals/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys aren't as good as their record would indicate. This defense still isn't any good. Their yards per play allowed is very similar to last year. Justin Durant being out is a huge hit to this defense too. The Arizona offense has lots of weapons and I've been impressed with Carson Palmer so far this year. He is spreading the ball around nicely. The Cowboys secondary will have trouble slowing this passing attack down. On offense, Dallas either has a banged up Tony Romo or Brandon Weeden. The Cardinals love to blitz, and based on the Redskins success blitzing, I think they'll get to the quarterback a few times on Sunday. Either Romo or Weeden is going to be in a difficult spot here. Arizona is the real deal, and I think they'll show the world that on Sunday. Dallas is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 during week nine. The Cardinals are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. the NFC. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 road games. Take Arizona. |
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11-01-14 | Arizona +7 v. UCLA | 7-17 | Loss | -120 | 67 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The UCLA Bruins have been a major disappointment this year. UCLA is having some ugly problems on their offensive line, and that has held back an offense that had a chance to be great. Look at their home loss to Utah. UCLA allowed Utah to sack quarterback Brett Hundley ten times in that game alone! The Arizona pass rush has been good in recent games, and they are licking their chops for this matchup. The Bruins defense has been a mess this year as well. They are particularly bad at stopping the pass. Arizona has a very balanced offense, and the Wildcats have a future star in Anu Solomon at quarterback. Rich Rodriguez is doing a tremendous job with this Arizona team, and they continue to get a lack of a respect from the oddsmakers. The Bruins are 0-7 ATS this year when playing on a Saturday. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 conference games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last vs. a Pac-12 opponent. A 15-0 angle. Take Arizona. |
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11-01-14 | Southern Miss v. UTEP UNDER 59 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 100 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Conference USA Total* The UTEP Miners have changed their stripes in a big way this year. What's different about this team? It's a team that used to have a ton of high scoring games because of a fast tempo and a horrible defense. Their defense still isn't very good, although they did pitch a shutout last week, but UTEP is now slowing the game down in a big way. UTEP is using up the play clock every single time. The Miners are playing at the slowest pace of any team in FBS right now. The oddsmakers are struggling to react to that change from a team that is off the radar of many. For a few more games we should be able to get value on the under. Southern Miss is a one-dimensional offense, and they won't be able to take advantage of UTEP's weak run defense. Take the under. |
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11-01-14 | Colorado State v. San Jose State OVER 53.5 | 38-31 | Win | 100 | 99 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 CFB Totals Takedown* The San Jose State Spartans defense looked really bad last weekend at Navy. San Jose State has played pretty well at home on defense, but this Colorado State offense is much better than the offenses they have been up against. It's one thing to slow down UNLV, but it's a whole different thing to stop the well-balanced Colorado State offense. The Rams can run it or throw it equally well, and they have an improved offensive line. San Jose State is getting solid production out of Gray, and Colorado State's defense has given up a lot of points in the second half of games this year. This number is set too low. I had this number at 59. Take the over. |
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11-01-14 | New Mexico v. UNLV OVER 54.5 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 97 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Totals Cash* The UNLV Rebels defense is one of the worst in the nation. In fact, they are 124th in the nation out of 128 in total defense. They are giving up 525 yards of total offense per game. Last year, New Mexico rolled up 581 yards of offense in a 56-42 loss to UNLV. The Lobos offense is great at running the football, and UNLV can't stop the run. The Lobos aren't able to throw it, but they won't need to against the Rebels. UNLV's offense has been inconsistent this year, but playing against a slow defense like New Mexico should allow UNLV's speedsters at the skill positions to have another big game. I made this line 65 points. Take the over. *Note- This line has moved up significantly since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this for 4 stars up to 59. I would play it for 3 stars up to 62. Thank you.* |
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11-01-14 | Arkansas State v. Idaho OVER 60.5 | 44-28 | Win | 100 | 97 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Idaho Vandals and Arkansas State Red Wolves both like to play fast. These are teams that want to get off as many snaps as possible. Arkansas State has moved the ball against just about everyone they have played, and they played a tough non-conference schedule. Idaho's defense is one of the worst in the nation. The Vandals are unlikely to be able to slow down Kneighten and this Red Wolves attack. Linehan has done a good job for Idaho at quarterback and Arkansas State's defense isn't even close to as good as they have been in the past couple years. Look for lots of scoring opportunities for both teams. Take the over. *Note- This line has moved up significantly since I posted this pick on Tuesday- I would play this for 4 stars up to 65 and for 3 stars up to 68 points. Thank you.* |
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11-01-14 | USC v. Washington State OVER 64.5 | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The USC Trojans have a totally different team this year than they did last season. Steve Sarkisian has this team playing much faster on the offensive end. Cody Kessler is doing a great job for this team at the quarterback spot. In fact, I think Kessler has been one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country so far this year. Kessler is completing 70 percent of his passes, and he has thrown 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. Washington State's defense is ranked 113th out of 128 FBS teams in pass defense. The Trojans are going to put up a lot of points. At the same time, the Washington State offense isn't the reason this team is 2-6. The Cougars are 7th in the nation in total offense and first in the nation in passing yards per game at 490 passing yards per contest. USC is a bit weaker in the secondary this year than normal. Both teams like to play fast and there will be a bunch of passes thrown in this game. The over is 5-0 in the Cougars last 5 following a double digit home loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 450 total yards or more last game. The over is 6-0 in the Cougars last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The over is 4-0 in the Trojans last 4 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. The over is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings between these two at Washington State. A 27-0 angle. Take the over. |
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11-01-14 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 48 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 60 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Missouri Tigers offense has been one of the most disappointing in the nation. Missouri simply can't get the passing game going, so opposing defenses are loading the box and making it tough for the Tigers to run the football. Kentucky's defense is much better than they have been in the past, and they have been able to handle most teams running games. The Wildcats offense looked good in the non-conference action, but against SEC defenses, and especially on the road, they have been poor. Missouri leads the SEC in sacks and the Kentucky offensive line will struggle to keep this group away from Towles. I don't expect to see much scoring here. Take the under. |
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11-01-14 | Florida v. Georgia UNDER 54 | Top | 38-20 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 12 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Georgia Bulldogs have really played well this year. They put up a poor performance in South Carolina and it cost them, but I've been really impressed with the way they have responded to that loss. Georgia has elevated their level of play in a big way on the defensive end. The Bulldogs stop the run well. Florida's offense is a total mess right now, and the only thing the Gators can do is run it. I don't think any of the Gators QB's can throw it effectively against Georgia. The Bulldogs offense is run heavy, and why wouldn't they be? Even without Gurley, Georgia has a ton of talented running backs and Chubb has been tremendous for them. Both teams will run the ball a bunch here. Florida's defense has been excellent in every game other than the Alabama game. This game means a lot to both teams. Look for a lot of defense in this one. Take the under big! *Note- This line has moved in a big way since I selected it on Tuesday. I would play this one for 5 Stars down to 50, for 4 stars down to 48, and for 3 stars down to 46. Thank you* |
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11-01-14 | North Carolina State v. Syracuse UNDER 48.5 | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB ACC Total Value* The Syracuse Orange have some major problems on offense right. That has overshadowed some really nice performances by the defense so far this year. Last week's 16-6 loss at Clemson was a good example of that. I played the under in that one and cashed in, and I'm going to take the under again. NC State's offense has been really inconsistent this year, and the Wolfpack defense is improved. I don't think either of these offenses have what it takes to put together consistent long drives in this game. Expect a sloppy low scoring game. Take the under. *Note- This line has moved against me- I would play this one for 4 stars at 51 points or higher. Thank you.* |
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11-01-14 | Western Michigan -6.5 v. Miami (OH) | 41-10 | Win | 100 | 59 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Hidden GEM* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have been playing much better this year, but they aren't as improved as the Western Michigan Broncos. Miami is also totally reliant on their passing game with Andrew Hendrix. Hendrix is a good transfer from Notre Dame, and he has done a nice job in the passing game. The problem I see for Miami on Saturday is they are facing a Western Michigan secondary that is the best in the MAC. They will also be up against some really ugly weather conditions. The weather report calls for wind and rain in Oxford during the course of this game. That kind of weather favors a team that can run the ball, and Miami can't run it. With Franklin at running back, the Broncos can run the football and that should be a big boost for them in this game. Western Michigan is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games overall. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 conference games. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 on turf. The are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a straight up win. A 23-0 angle. Take Western Michigan. |
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11-01-14 | North Carolina +15 v. Miami (Fla) | 20-47 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The North Carolina Tar Heels were a team with high expectations coming into the season. Early this year, North Carolina played some really bad football. The perception of this team changed in a big way. Over the past three weeks, North Carolina has started to play more like the team I expected them to be. They give up a lot of points, but they score a bunch too. Williams is playing great at the quarterback spot, and he has this offense working. Their close loss at Notre Dame and win at Virginia speak to the improvement they have made. The Miami Hurricanes are a very good offense, but I'm not convinced their defense is all that good. They gave up 41 points against Nebraska. This should be a high scoring game, but I think the Tar Heels keep it close. The underdog is 8-1-1 ATS in the last 10 meetings between these two. Take North Carolina. |
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10-27-14 | Washington Redskins +10.5 v. Dallas Cowboys | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The Dallas Cowboys are clearly a good team, but they aren't as good as their record would indicate. They also aren't as good as this line would indicate. The Cowboys defense that has supposedly improved so drastically since last year is giving up almost exactly the same yards per play that they were last season. Washington has lost five games this year, but they have been outgained in only two games. The Redskins aren't a good team, but they aren't quite as bad as their record. RG3 might play in this one, but I'm counting on Colt McCoy to get most of the time here. I don't think McCoy is a long-term answer, but he should do fine against this poor Cowboys defense. Washington is 7-1 ATS in their last 8 vs. Dallas. The underdog is a whopping 24-8 ATS in the last 32 meetings. This is a big rivalry game. Too many points. Take the underdog. Take Washington. |
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10-26-14 | Green Bay Packers v. New Orleans Saints -1 | Top | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 51 h 8 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP NFL Play of the Month* The Green Bay Packers are a good team, but they haven't played like an elite team this year. Green Bay is 5-2 on the year, but they have won a lot of close games. They have a turnover margin of +10, so they are relying heavily on turnovers to win these games. That kind of statistic can't continue all year long. I've been disappointed with the Saints performance so far this year, but all four of their losses have come on the road. In 3 of those losses, they were ahead late and basically gave the game away. The Saints season isn't a total failure yet, but they absolutely have to win this game. New Orleans has been absolute money at home under Drew Brees and Sean Payton. The Saints are 17-1-1 ATS in their last 19 home games with Payton and Brees both active. The Saints aren't nearly as bad as their record, and this line is an extremely good value. Take New Orleans big! |
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10-26-14 | Philadelphia Eagles v. Arizona Cardinals OVER 48 | 20-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Arizona Cardinals secondary ranks second to last in the NFL in pass defense so far this year. With the offensive line starting to play better (and get healthy) Nick Foles' production should continue to improve in the passing game for Philadelphia. McCoy is too good of a runner to be completely shut down in the long run. The Eagles defense has been opportunistic, and they have created a bunch of scores on that side of the ball. Philadelphia's defense still isn't very good overall though, and the Eagles will have trouble slowing down this Arizona offense. The Eagles don't have the secondary to stop Carson Palmer and the Cardinals talented wide receivers. Both teams score plenty in this one. Take the over. |
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10-26-14 | Detroit Lions -3.5 v. Atlanta Falcons | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL EARLY Bird Special* This one is being played at 9:30 AM Eastern, so make sure you are ready for the early start. Atlanta just isn't a good team away from home. This game is being played in London, which obviously means Atlanta doesn't have the home field advantage in the Dome. Detroit is gaining momentum and they are becoming a confident bunch. The Lions defensive line is arguably the best in the NFL, and that's a major problem for Atlanta here. The Falcons have injuries all across their offensive line. Matt Ryan is playing behind a patchwork line, and Ryan isn't the type of quarterback to be able to keep plays alive with his feet. Detroit's defensive line is going to be in the backfield a bunch in this game. The Lions should have Reggie Bush, and Calvin Johnson is a game time decision. Atlanta's defense is one of the worst in the league and I expect the Lions to be able to move the ball consistently. Detroit keeps the momentum going and Atlanta struggles yet again. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 during October. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 overall. Atlanta is also 0-7 ATS in their last 7 away from home during the first half of the season. A 15-0 angle. Take Detroit. |
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10-25-14 | USC v. Utah UNDER 57 | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 101 h 35 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Late Night BAILOUT* The Utah Utes and USC Trojans meet in what should be a really good game Saturday night in Utah. One thing most people forget about the Utah Utes is they have a tremendous home field advantage thanks to the elevation they play at. USC's weakness is their lack of depth. I think the Trojans offense will be far less effective than they have been in recent weeks in the elevation here. Utah's offense has transformed in a way that means they run the ball nearly every down. The Utes have been getting such poor play from their quarterbacks that this team is just handing it off to Booker constantly. That helps the total in a couple ways. Number one it means the clock keeps rolling here. Number two it plays into the strength of the USC defense which is stopping the run. I think this game is much lower scoring than most expect. The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 conference games. The under is 8-1-1 in USC's last 10 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 3-0-1 in Utah's last 4 overall. The under is 7-1-1 in Utah's last 9 vs. a team with a winning record. A 21-2 angle. Take the under big. |
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10-25-14 | Ohio State v. Penn State OVER 51.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 98 h 25 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Total of the Month* The Ohio State Buckeyes have scored at least 50 points in four straight games. I'm not sure the Buckeyes can get to 50 points against a decent Penn State defense, but I think they can get a lot closer than most believe. J.T. Barrett has been absolutely amazing quarterbacking this Ohio State team. The Buckeyes offense is having play makers step up around him as well. They have talent at the wide receiver position and they have two very good tight ends. The Buckeyes have found a very good runner in Ezekiel Elliot. Ohio State is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. The Buckeyes defense still has a long ways to go though. Hackenberg and the Nittany Lions should break some big plays against a secondary that still isn't very good. I expect Ohio State to jump out to a lead and keep their foot on the gas. The Nittany Lions score plenty to push this one over. The over is 5-0 in the Buckeyes last 5 overall. The over is 6-0 in the Buckeyes last 6 following a win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 20 points or less. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS win. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after scoring 40 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after a win by 20 points or more. A 33-0 angle. Take the over big! TOP Total of the Month |
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10-25-14 | Syracuse v. Clemson UNDER 47 | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 98 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Clemson Tigers offense isn't the same without DeShaun Watson under center. I really think Watson is going to be a tremendous player in this offense, but he's out with a broken hand now. Cole Stoudt is the man getting the start here, and Stoudt is dinged up himself. Behind Stoudt, the Clemson offense has struggled to get going. Syracuse isn't any good on offense, and the Clemson defense is one of the best in the country. Look for the Tigers defensive line to flex their muscles in this one. Clemson also lost their top running back last week, so the Tigers have some real issues on offense. I see a defensive struggle here. The under is 4-0 in Clemson's last 4 games after giving up less than 20 points. The under is 6-0 in Clemson's last 6 following a win. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing 275 yards or less. The under is 7-0 in Clemson's last 7 after gaining 125 yards or less on the ground in 2 straight games. A 23-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-25-14 | Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky OVER 75.5 | 51-66 | Win | 100 | 95 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Total Value* This is the perfect combination of two teams who throw the ball nearly every play and two secondaries who are just dreadful when it comes to defending the pass. Doughty is having a tremendous season under Coach Brohm at Western Kentucky and this Old Dominion defense may be the worst he has faced all year. Heinecke is a star in the making for ODU and the NFL scouts really like him a lot. Both of these teams play very fast and there are going to be a bunch of possessions in this game. Look for this one to get into the 80's as both teams light up the scoreboard. Take the over. |
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10-25-14 | Vanderbilt +24 v. Missouri | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Dog of the Day* The Vanderbilt Commodores are a really bad team. You might wonder why I would be backing a really bad team. I firmly believe that it's all about the price you get at and plus 24 points I think Vanderbilt is a solid value here. Why is that? Missouri isn't a very good team either. They have gone way down in my power rankings over the course of the season as Maty Mauk and the Tigers offense have struggled badly. Missouri won big at Florida last week, but their offense had just 7 first downs! Vanderbilt isn't going to impress anyone with their offense, but the Commodores should slow down the Tigers offense. This should be a low scoring game and 24 points is a bunch in a low scoring game. It's ugly, but I'm grabbing the points. Take Vanderbilt. |
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10-25-14 | Central Michigan -3 v. Buffalo | Top | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 133 h 47 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB ATS TOP Play of Week* The Central Michigan Chippewas are coming off a really disappointing loss to the Ball State Cardinals at home last week. If you take a close look at last week's box score though, you'll see that Central Michigan was the better team and they simply turned it over too many times. Central Michigan lost in overtime and they turned it over five times (Several of those times were as they were close to scoring). Buffalo has a new coach after Jeff Quinn was fired midseason. The Bulls lost so much talent from last year that they simply can't compete with the best teams in the MAC. They didn't show it last week, but I do think Central Michigan is one of the best teams in the MAC. Central Michigan runs it well with Rawls and that should be the difference. Take Central Michigan big! |
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10-25-14 | Kent State v. Miami (OH) -6.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Mac Attack Play* The Miami Ohio Redhawks are improving quickly under new coach Chuck Martin. It helps that he brought Andrew Hendrix along to be the quarterback. Hendrix is putting up some impressive numbers in this offense over the last few games. Miami put up 41 points in a losing effort last week against Northern Illinois. Kent State is a really bad team this year. Kent State got their first win last week, and that makes me like this game even more. The Golden Flashes are likely to be feeling a little better about themselves, but they shouldn't. Miami should be the hungrier team here, and the Redhawks have far too much offense for Kent State to keep up. Take Miami. |
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10-25-14 | UMass v. Toledo OVER 70 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 22 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Toledo Rockets and UMass Minutemen both like to air it out early and often. Neither team is any good at defending the pass. The Minutemen have gotten a major boost from transfer quarterback Blake Frohnapfel who has been far better than most expected. UMass has been getting better and better offensively every week. This is a team that was awful offensively last year and the oddsmakers are having a hard time catching up to their new style of play. Toledo's offense is way too quick and athletic for a poor UMass defense. The Rockets had a week off before this game and their offense should be clicking with some key injured players getting back in the lineup. Bombs away in this one. Take the over. |
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10-25-14 | San Jose State v. Navy UNDER 55 | 31-41 | Loss | -106 | 92 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Navy Midshipmen run the football nearly every down, and San Jose State likes to run the football as well. I like playing unders with teams that run it this often because the clock keeps ticking and there are far fewer plays. San Jose State's offense took a big hit when their best running back was suspended indefinitely this week. The Spartans defense has been pretty good against the run and they have played a triple option team a lot in recent years so this is more familiar to them. Navy's Keenan Reynolds is banged up and that is slowing down this Midshipmen offense. The under is 8-1 in Navy's last 9 after scoring 40 points or more. The under is 4-0 in SJ State's last 4 on turf. A 12-1 angle. Take the under. |
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10-25-14 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -10 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 45 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Big Ten Value Play* The Wisconsin Badgers are coming off a bye week and they have been playing poorly of late. Gary Andersen's team should show up ready to play this week. Maryland's defense hasn't been able to stop the run all year, and I suspect Wisconsin will be able to run it down their throat all game long. Joel Stave is back as the quarterback at Wisconsin and he is the better option. Maryland once again this year has some major injury problems. The Terrapins don't have the defense to shut down Wisconsin's running game, and the Badgers secondary has been good this year. Wisconsin bounces back. Take Wisconsin. |
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10-25-14 | Memphis -23 v. SMU | 48-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB ATS Major MISMATCH* The SMU Mustangs managed to score three points last week against the Cincinnati Bearcats. It's important to note that going into that game Cincinnati had the dead last ranked defense in the nation. The fact that SMU couldn't score against them spoke to just how bad this team is. SMU is dead last in the nation now in points scored per game and points allowed per game. They are just terrible in every facet of the game. Memphis wants some serious revenge here for the past few years when SMU beat them, and this is the perfect opportunity. Memphis is much improved and SMU is the worst team in the nation. Blowout! Take Memphis. |
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10-24-14 | BYU v. Boise State OVER 59 | Top | 30-55 | Win | 100 | 42 h 15 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total DOMINATION* The Boise State Broncos and BYU Cougars both like to play at a quick tempo. That means we'll see plenty of snaps in this one, which is obviously a big boost for an over play. The posted total here comes in several points below where I expected it. These two teams combined for 967 yards of total offense when they met last year. Both defenses are significantly worse than they were last season. Grant Hedrick and the Boise State offense have put up 51 and 37 points in the last two games. Christian Stewart is doing a solid job at quarterback for BYU. The Cougars topped 600 yards in a 42-35 loss to Nevada last week. Both of these teams are turnover prone, and a defensive score or two here wouldn't be a big surprise. The public perception of these two teams as strong defenses is no longer the case. That's giving us value on the over. The over is 4-0 in BYU's last 4 games. The over is 6-2 in Boise State's last 8 vs. a team with a winning record. Take the over big! |
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10-23-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Virginia Tech +3 | 30-6 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a team I expected big things from this year. They won at Ohio State in one of the bigger upsets of the year, but they haven't been good since then. Injuries are at least partly to blame, but the Hokies offense is the main culprit. I still believe Michael Brewer is better than he has been playing. It will help the offense to get back Marshawn Williams at the tailback spot for this game. Brad Kaaya is the freshman starter at quarterback for Miami. Kaaya has thrown nine picks this year, and the Virginia Tech secondary will easily be the best secondary he has faced this season. Bud Foster is an excellent defensive coordinator, and I think he'll make Kaaya feel very uneasy in this game. Look for some mistakes from the freshman. Miami has been a bad road team this year. The Hokies need this game badly, and winning at Blacksburg at night is no easy task. The line has shifted to the point here where I'm willing to take the Hokies. Grab the field goal. Take Virginia Tech. |
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10-21-14 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette +3 | 40-55 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Oddsmaker ERROR* The Louisiana Lafayette Ragin' Cajuns were the class of the Sun Belt last year. They were the heavy preseason favorites in the league this year as well. They played poorly in the non-conference schedule this year, but they did play against some high quality opponents. Playing teams like Ole Miss and Boise State got them ready for play in the weak Sun Belt Conference. Arkansas State drilled Georgia State in their last game, but Georgia State is the worst team in the conference, and that win means little. The Red Wolves have question marks in the trenches, and that is where Lafayette should own this game. Last year when these two met, Lafayette won 23-7 at Arkansas State, and the Red Wolves had just 168 yards of total offense in that game. Lafayette blew out Texas State 34-10 as a 2.5 point underdog on the road last week. The Ragin' Cajuns are gaining momentum and Mark Hudspeth's team has no business being a field goal underdog here on their home field. Take Louisiana Lafayette. |
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10-19-14 | NY Giants +7 v. Dallas Cowboys | 21-31 | Loss | -120 | 38 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Giants/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys are certainly a much improved team, but this line is a major overreaction. The Cowboys win over Seattle has caused a major adjustment and now the public is driving up this price way too fast. New York and Dallas have a major rivalry and the road team has done extremely well in the last few years when these two meet. Though Dallas won both meetings last year, the Giants actually outgained the Cowboys in each of those games. Keep in mind, this is still the same Cowboys team that needed overtime to beat the Texans at home earlier this month. The Giants were thumped last week so perception is low on them, but had been playing well before that and I expect Tom Couglin to prepare them well for this key NFC East game. Take advantage of this overreaction and grab the points with the underdog. Take the Giants. |
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10-19-14 | Cincinnati Bengals v. Indianapolis Colts -3 | 0-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Indianapolis Colts continue to play better than oddsmakers expect. The Colts looked like a team with a lot of holes in the first couple games of the season, but I've been impressed by the improvement from this team in recent weeks. Andrew Luck is obviously a superstar at the quarterback position, but the players around him on offense are getting better. This offensive line is young, and early in the year they looked like a major problem spot, in the past couple weeks they have been solid. The Colts defense isn't a shutdown type unit, but they are opportunistic. Cincinnati's offense is good, but they aren't even close to as good now that they don't have A.J. Green or Marvin Jones on the outside here. Look for the Colts to key in on the running game of Cincinnati in this one. The Colts are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 home games with a total of 45-50 points. They are 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games at home vs. a team averaging 24 yards or more per kick return. The Colts are 4-0 in their last 4 as a favorite. The Colts are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning record. A 28-0 angle. Take Indianapolis. |
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10-19-14 | Miami Dolphins v. Chicago Bears OVER 48 | 27-14 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears have a lot of injuries on the defensive side of the ball. They covered them up well last week in Atlanta, but I don't think they'll be able to keep the Dolphins down that well. The Bears offense is rolling right now. Jay Cutler is finally getting comfortable in this offense, and his wideouts will have some major height advantages on the Dolphins smaller corners. It might also surprise you to learn that the team who is playing second fastest from a tempo perspective so far this year is the Miami Dolphins (behind only the Eagles with Chip Kelly's fast paced attack). I expected this total to be around 52 points, and finding four points of value in the NFL is difficult. Take the over. |
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10-18-14 | Nebraska v. Northwestern +7.5 | Top | 38-17 | Loss | -114 | 138 h 6 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play High Roller* The Northwestern Wildcats were a play of mine last week. Northwestern dominated the game against Minnesota, but managed to lose by a touchdown and not cover the plus four. The Wildcats had 28 first downs compared to 14 for Minnesota in that game. It was a bad beat, but I'm going with Northwestern again this week. Northwestern has tons of incentive to play well in this game. Nebraska absolutely stole a game from Northwestern last year with a last second Hail Mary touchdown pass to win with the clock at zero. You better believe Northwestern's players and coaches remember that game. The Wildcats are better than most believe this year, and I don't think Nebraska is as good as most believe this year. Nebraska has a strong running game, but they are one-dimensional. Wisconsin is the same way and Northwestern beat them outright earlier this year in Evanston. Pat Fitzgerald is a very good gameday coach, and I like his team with revenge on their minds and getting this many points. Take Northwestern big! |
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10-18-14 | Georgia Tech -2 v. North Carolina | Top | 43-48 | Loss | -115 | 139 h 45 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play of the Week* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have really owned the North Carolina Tar Heels over the past few years. Georgia Tech has run for at least 300 yards in each of their last 5 meetings with the Tar Heels. Georgia Tech has also won each of those contests by a minimum of six points. North Carolina has been really disappointing this year. The Tar Heels are coming off their best effort of the season in a 50-43 heartbreaking loss at Notre Dame. After that kind of game, I think UNC has a flat spot this week. The Yellow Jackets are a tough team to prepare for with their triple option offense, and you know that UNC was spending their prep time getting ready for Notre Dame solely until after that game. Georgia Tech lost the turnover battle badly last week and it cost them dearly as they lost their first game. They should win the battle on the line of scrimmage here and win and cover. The Yellow Jackets are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 games after forcing zero turnovers the game before. Georgia Tech is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games vs. North Carolina. Take Georgia Tech big! |
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10-18-14 | Georgia v. Arkansas UNDER 58.5 | 45-32 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star SEC Total Takedown* I was extremely impressed by the Georgia Bulldogs defense in their win last week over Missouri. Georgia's defense totally stonewalled a pretty decent Missouri offense led by Maty Mauk in that game. They pitched a shutout on the road in Columbia. Arkansas' defense gave up only 14 points against an Alabama offense with a bunch of weapons too. These are two teams that stop the run well. That's important here because that's pretty much all these two offenses do. That being said, I see a lot of running clock and solid work from both defenses in the front seven. A tight game here with the defenses controlling. Take the under. |
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10-18-14 | Clemson v. Boston College +7.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 135 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Underdog Special* The Clemson Tigers aren't the same team without DeShaun Watson at quarterback. Watson broke his hand last week in the team's narrow victory over Louisville. The Tigers offense was a mess after Watson left. Cole Stoudt has experience, but he just isn't all that good. Stoudt is also playing slightly dinged up, so Clemson's playbook will probably look a little different this week. Boston College has gotten a major boost from Tyler Murphy at the quarterback spot. The Eagles have been much stronger in the trenches than I expected them to be before the year. Steve Addazio doesn't get enough credit for the job he has done with this Eagles team. Addazio has his guys buying into the system. Clemson's offense isn't good enough to lay this number against Boston College at Chestnut Hill. Grab the points. Take Boston College. |
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10-18-14 | Cincinnati v. SMU OVER 61.5 | 41-3 | Loss | -110 | 94 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The SMU Mustangs are a really bad football team. They did show a little bit of hope on the offensive end in their last game against East Carolina though. As bad as the SMU offense is, they should be able to score several times on Cincinnati who is among the worst defenses in the nation. The Bearcats secondary has been absolutely torn up by everyone this year. SMU's defense is awful, and Gunner Kiel and the Bearcats passing game is excellent. Cincinnati could throw for 500 plus yards in this game and it wouldn't surprise me one bit. I expect Cincinnati to score at least 40 points in this one. The over is 4-0 in SMU's last 4 overall. The over is 7-0 in their last 7 October games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 40 plus points in a game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 280 yards or more through the air. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after losing by 20 points or more. The over is 10-1 in their last 11 following a loss. A 33-1 angle. Take the over. |
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10-18-14 | Clemson v. Boston College UNDER 48.5 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 94 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star ACC Total Value* The Clemson Tigers aren't the same team without DeShaun Watson at quarterback. Watson broke his hand last week in the team's narrow victory over Louisville. The Tigers offense was a mess after Watson left. Cole Stoudt has experience, but he just isn't all that good. Stoudt is also playing slightly dinged up, so Clemson's playbook will probably look a little different this week. Look for more running from Clemson and not quite as quick of a tempo. Boston College will play to force Stoudt to beat them through the air and I don't think he can do it. The Eagles slow the game down and like to run the ball a bunch, so the clock should keep ticking away in this one. I think this one is a real defensive battle. Take the under. |
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10-18-14 | New Mexico v. Air Force -9.5 | 31-35 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Revenge Special* This is a great spot for Air Force to get some revenge on New Mexico. New Mexico is a team that can run the football pretty well, but they have absolutely no passing game. Air Force is the same way. The one difference between these two teams is the Air Force Falcons can stop the run this year, and the New Mexico Lobos can't. Air Force is in the top 20 in the nation in stopping the run. New Mexico is in the bottom 5 in the nation against the run. Air Force was far worse than normal last year, and they were beaten in a high scoring game at New Mexico. They remember that game, and this Falcons team is far better than last year's version. They play well at home, and they should get their revenge in a big way. Take Air Force. |
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10-18-14 | Ball State v. Central Michigan OVER 55 | 32-29 | Win | 100 | 85 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB MAC Total Takedown* The Central Michigan Chippewas have a couple great offensive players in Titus Davis and Thomas Rawls. Both of these guys missed time earlier this year, and the Chippewas offense struggled. Rawls has carried it 40 times in both of the team's last two games. He has quickly become the best running back in the MAC. Davis was great last year and he's getting cranked up again now that he's healthy. He's the best receiver in the MAC, and no one from this Ball State secondary can match his athleticism. Ball State plays quickly and they have found a better quarterback the last couple weeks who helps them move the ball. The Chippewas defense is no better than mediocre. This posted total is a few points too low. Take the over. |
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10-18-14 | Texas A&M v. Alabama -10.5 | 0-59 | Win | 100 | 59 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Texas A&M/Alabama Cash* The Texas A&M Aggies are overrated in my opinion. They are still getting too much credit from their opening game win at South Carolina. As the season has gone along, we have seen that the Gamecocks aren't very good and the Aggies win doesn't mean as much as initially thought. Against Mississippi State and Mississippi, the Aggies weren't even competitive. Though the games final scores look slightly competitive, Texas A&M scored two late touchdowns in each of those games to simply do some "window dressing." The Aggies defense is bad, and Kenny Hill does turn it over quite a bit. Alabama wasn't sharp last week, and I expect them to be much better here. The Crimson Tide are a good value at anything two touchdowns or less. Take Alabama. |
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10-18-14 | Rutgers v. Ohio State -19 | Top | 17-56 | Win | 100 | 85 h 5 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB Big 10 TOP Play* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights are 5-1, but I'm not sure they are as good as their record might indicate. They were a little fortunate to beat Michigan a couple weeks ago as the Wolverines dominated the line of scrimmage against them. Michigan is weak in the trenches, but Ohio State isn't at all. The Buckeyes defensive line should live in the backfield in this one. Look for Joey Bosa and company to make life very difficult on Gary Nova. While Nova has been good so far this year, he has shown the ability to throw a bunch of picks in the past. He did it once this year against Penn State (5 interceptions) and he did it several times last year. I think Rutgers turns it over multiple times here. Ohio State's offense is really playing well, and Urban Meyer is 22-6 ATS in his last 28 games following a bye week. The Buckeyes are going to score quite a few points here, and I don't think Rutgers can keep up. Look for a big win for Ohio State. Take the Buckeyes big! |
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10-18-14 | Eastern Michigan v. UMass OVER 61.5 | 14-36 | Loss | -110 | 86 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The UMass Minutemen are a team that have made me a lot of money with the 'over' so far this year. UMass has had tons of trouble scoring the past few seasons, but they got a new quarterback this year and he has sparked the team in a big way. Blake Frohnapfel was stuck behind Rakeem Cato at Marshall the last couple years, but now he is thriving at UMass. With him at the helm, the Minutemen are killing teams through the air. Eastern Michigan's defense is absolutely atrocious, and UMass will likely put up 40 points or more. Eastern Michigan's offense got a spark from a freshman quarterback last week, and UMass' defense is really bad. This number isn't terribly high, and I see the potential for huge plays back and forth all the way through this one. Really bad defenses and improving offenses. The over is 4-0 in E. Michigan's last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground. The over is 5-0-1 in UMass' last 6 games. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 on turf. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 following an ATS win. The over is 3-0-1 in their last 4 conference games. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-18-14 | Western Michigan v. Bowling Green OVER 68 | 26-14 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB MAC Total* The Bowling Green Falcons have a new offensive system under Coach Dino Babers this year. The Falcons are doing great on offense even without starting quarterback Matt Johnson. Why have they been disappointing overall? Bowling Green went from having the best defense in the MAC, to having one of the worst defenses in the entire nation. Western Michigan has a good young quarterback and a good young running back. The Broncos have scored 34 points or more in four of their six games so far this year. Western Michigan has tons of defensive issues, so Bowling Green should put up a bunch. A back and forth high scoring affair. Take the over. |
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10-18-14 | Tulane v. Central Florida UNDER 45.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 90 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The UCF Knights and Tulane Green Wave are two teams with some severe issues on the offensive end. UCF has an inconsistent quarterback in Justin Holman. Tulane will likely start Nick Montana for a second straight week with starting quarterback Tanner Lee injured. In their last two games, Tulane has put up 6 points and 12 points. The Tulane defense is the reason this team was so improved last year, and they are still solid this year. UCF's defense is always underrated under Coach O'Leary. Neither of these teams like to play fast, so I don't expect very many possessions in this game. This total is set rather low, but it should be even lower. The under is 4-0 in Tulane's last 4 after gaining 170 passing yards or less last game. The under is 4-0-1 in their last 5 games after scoring less than 20 points in their last game. The under is 4-0 in UCF's last 4 conference games. The under is 4-0 in the Knights last 4 after giving up 170 yards or less through the air last game. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-18-14 | Kansas State +8 v. Oklahoma | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 83 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Oddsmaker ERROR* The oddsmakers got the line wrong in this one. The line opened at 10 points before being quickly bet down, and for good reason. Bill Snyder has had two weeks to prepare for this game, and that's scary for the Oklahoma Sooners. There isn't a coach I'd rather back on two weeks of preparation than Bill Snyder. The guy is a complete football mastermind, and he gets the most out of his teams every single week. Kansas State is shutting down the run this year. They are fourth in the nation against the run, and that includes a game against the terrific Auburn rushing offense. Oklahoma needs to run it now because Trevor Knight isn't throwing it well. I don't think the Sooners can cover more than a touchdown here, and I actually believe Kansas State has a real chance at winning the game outright. Take Kansas State and the points and sprinkle a little on the moneyline. |
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10-18-14 | Baylor v. West Virginia OVER 79.5 | 27-41 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Big 12 Total Value* The West Virginia Mountaineers and Baylor Bears have scored 115 and 133 points the last two years when they have squared off. They might not score that many points this time around, but I think they'll score a bunch. Both teams air it out early and often, and Clint Trickett is playing some amazing football right now. We know Bryce Petty and the Bears offense can score in a hurry, but so can West Virginia. I think both teams have a good chance to put up 40 plus points here. A back and forth game with lots of quick scores. The total is high, but not high enough. Take the over. |
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10-17-14 | Temple v. Houston OVER 48.5 | 10-31 | Loss | -110 | 54 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Houston Cougars and Temple Owls meet Friday night in Houston. On paper, both of these defenses look solid, but when you look at who they have played you'll see the whole story. Temple's opponents have been Vanderbilt, Navy, Delaware State, Tulsa, and UConn. Only Navy has a decent offense, and that is a triple option attack. Houston's opponents have been UTSA, Grambling, BYU, UNLV, UCF, and Memphis. Only BYU and Memphis have decent offenses there, and those two put up 33 and 24 points on the Cougars. P.J. Walker is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the nation and I see him making plays in this one against an overrated Houston defense. The Cougars will probably play two quarterbacks here (Ward and O'Korn) and the Cougars like to play fast and keep the tempo moving. The over is the play at this low level. I had this line set at 55 points myself. Take the over. |
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10-12-14 | NY Giants v. Philadelphia Eagles OVER 50 | 0-27 | Loss | -105 | 100 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Philadelphia Eagles offensive line is starting to get healthier, and that should help this offense. Chip Kelly's offense is innovative and it has shown to be very good in the past, but this year the Eagles haven't gotten it going yet. Look for Nick Foles and the Philly receivers to get in sync this week. McCoy has been a big disappointment in the backfield, but he has a good past against the Giants defense. Eli Manning has been playing some really good football of late. Manning is getting rid of the football far quicker than he has in the past, and that's working in a big way. This looks like a back and forth high scoring game all the way. Take the over. |
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10-12-14 | Chicago Bears v. Atlanta Falcons OVER 53.5 | 27-13 | Loss | -108 | 112 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears and Atlanta Falcons meet in the Georgia Dome on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams come in with lots of offensive weapons and a quarterback who can sling it around. The two defenses have some major problems in the secondary. Chicago is banged up badly in the secondary, and Matt Ryan is amazing at home. The Falcons receivers are as good as anyone in the league. The Falcons don't have a good pass rush, and without a strong pass rush, Jay Cutler is likely to pick apart this Atlanta secondary. This is a game where I expect a lot of big play touchdowns, so both teams should get the ball a lot of times here. The over is 6-0 in the Bears last 6 vs. the NFC. The over is 5-0 in Chicago's last 5 after gaining 250 passing yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 after running for 90 yards or less. The over is 5-0 in Atlanta's last 5 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. The over is 4-0 in the Falcons last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. The over is 6-0 in Atlanta's last 6 as a home favorite. A 30-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-12-14 | Dallas Cowboys v. Seattle Seahawks -8 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 61 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Cowboys/Seahawks MONEYMaker* The Dallas Cowboys are 3-1 and they have played solid football this year. I won't take anything away from the Cowboys, but I don't think they are in the same class as the Seattle Seahawks. Seattle is the champion until someone beats them, and they haven't disappointed so far this year. The Seahawks are amazing at home, and this will be a raucous environment on Sunday afternoon. Tony Romo is still a turnover machine, and the Cowboys are unlikely to be able to run consistently against this Seahawks front seven. Seattle's offense is better this year behind an improved Russell Wilson and a healthy Percy Harvin. The Cowboys defense may be a bit better than last year, but they aren't as good as they have looked thus far. I expect them to get gashed in this one. Seattle is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after gaining 350 yards or more last game. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 250 yards or more through the air. Seattle is 10-1 ATS in their last 11 games vs. a team that is averaging 7 yards or more passing yards per attempt. A 23-1 angle. Take Seattle. |
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10-12-14 | Green Bay Packers v. Miami Dolphins OVER 49 | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 108 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Totals TKO* The Miami Dolphins and Green Bay Packers both like to get off a lot of snaps. There should be plenty of no huddle offense and scoring opportunities in this game. Green Bay's defense has really disappointed this year, and I think they can make just about any quarterback look good. The Dolphins have an impressive running game. Green Bay's offense wasn't too good in the first couple weeks, but Aaron Rodgers has gotten it going of late. Rodgers should be able to carve up a mediocre Dolphins secondary. The Green Bay offense is much more impressive now that it has balance with Lacy in the run game. Plenty of points here. Take the over. |
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10-12-14 | New England Patriots v. Buffalo Bills +3 | Top | 37-22 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 32 m | Show |
*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Month* The New England Patriots have been up and down this year. The Patriots were blown out on the road by both Miami and Kansas City though, and that's something that bettors need to keep in mind. Buffalo is a better team with Kyle Orton at quarterback because he is far more consistent than Manuel. The Bills are tremendous in the trenches on both sides of the ball as well, and that's where they hold a major edge against the Patriots. The Bills defensive line is one of the top five in the NFL, and I expect them to give the Patriots offensive line fits. Buffalo's running game is terrific, and the Patriots have been torched on the ground in their road games this year. The public is rushing to back New England here because they looked great in their home game against the Bengals on Sunday Night Football. The line has moved toward the Bills side even though the public is almost 90% backing the Patriots. This is a sharp line move. I'll gladly fade the public here. I think the Bills win outright. Take Buffalo big! |
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10-11-14 | Colorado State v. Nevada UNDER 64.5 | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 47 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* The Nevada Wolf Pack played in a very high scoring game last week. The fact that they played an abnormally high scoring game last week sets up a lot of value on the under in this game. I suspect this line would have been in the upper 50's or about 60 before last weekend. Both Nevada and Colorado State take their time between snaps, so there won't be much hurry up offense in this game. The Wolf Pack defense is much improved from last year. Both teams will keep it on the ground quite a bit here as well. This number is several points too high. The under is 8-0 in Nevada's last 8 following a loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 280 passing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after giving up 200 yards or more on the ground. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after gaining 280 passing yards or more on offense last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 37-0 angle. Take the under. Â |
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10-11-14 | LSU v. Florida +2 | 30-27 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star LSU/Florida CASH* Both LSU and Florida are way down from where they were a few years ago. Les Miles' team has been totally outclassed in two straight games. Florida was thumped by Alabama, but they showed some impressive fight last week in an ugly 10-9 win at Tennessee. The Gators seem to be fighting for embattled head coach Will Muschamp. Florida has the better defense, and the Gators should be able to run the ball some against a poor LSU front seven. The home field advantage is enough to put me over the top on this one. Take Florida. |
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10-11-14 | Florida International v. Texas-San Antonio UNDER 45 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 98 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Total Value* These are two teams that are a total mess on the offensive side of the ball. Neither one is able to put together a consistent drive, and they both have tons of quarterback problems. FIU is starting to get more respectable as a team because their defense is playing well. Larry Coker always puts a solid defense on the field. This sets up as one of those really ugly games that no one wants to watch. The winner here might finish in the teens. Take the under. *Note- I would play the under for 4 stars down to 41 and 3 stars if the number is lower than that. Thank you.*Â |
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10-11-14 | Oregon v. UCLA OVER 68 | 42-30 | Win | 100 | 94 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Oregon/UCLA Total DOMINATION* Both Oregon and UCLA were upset at home as double digit favorites last week. This game would have been even bigger had they won last week, but since the playoff system is in place now both teams still have a chance if they win out. These are two fast-paced offenses that do it with big plays. Big plays equal a lot of quick scores and that can lead to some real shootouts. These defenses are both far worse than they were a year ago. Marcus Mariota and Brett Hundley should have some big numbers in this contest. High scoring tight game here. Take the over. |
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10-11-14 | Louisville v. Clemson -9.5 | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Clemson Tigers aren't getting the respect they deserve this year. Clemson absolutely should have beaten Florida State in Tallahassee. I know Winston didn't play in that game, but Florida State still has plenty of very good players on their roster. Clemson absolutely dismantled NC State last week as their defense looked amazing. Dabo Swinney's team is dangerous. Deshaun Watson is a tremendous young quarterback, and he looks like a future Heisman Trophy candidate to me. Louisville has a good defense, but the Cardinals don't have the firepower to score many points on this strong Clemson defense. Clemson is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on grass. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 overall. An 18-0 angle. Take Clemson. |
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10-11-14 | TCU v. Baylor OVER 66 | 58-61 | Win | 100 | 72 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Baylor/TCU Total CASH* The TCU Horned Frogs are known for their defense, but they are unbeaten right now because of their offense. The defense is still solid, but TCU's offense is no longer a liability. Even with their offense being weak last year, TCU lost 41-38 against Baylor in a back and forth game. Baylor kept things under wraps last week against Texas, but the Bears offense will be high-octane again Saturday. TCU has gotten a huge boost from Trevone Boykin's improved play. TCU is also playing at a much faster tempo this year than they have in the past. Both teams should get the ball plenty of times here. Lots of scoring chances. The over is 5-0 in TCU's last 5 after gaining 450 yards or more last game. The over is 12-1 in Baylor's last 13 games after giving up 20 points or less last game. A 17-1 angle. Take the over. |
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10-11-14 | Boston College v. NC State OVER 56 | 30-14 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Hidden GEM Total* The NC State Wolfpack offense was tremendous a couple weeks ago against Florida State, but they were shut out and completely embarrassed last week in a loss to Clemson. They'll find things much easier going in this one against a mediocre Boston College defense. The Eagles offense has gotten a major spark from Tyler Murphy and the running game. NC State's defense isn't any good, and they've been routinely allowing 40 plus points. It's a battle of two former Florida quarterbacks (the Gators probably want them back now), and I expect both quarterbacks to play well here. The over is 5-0 in BC's last 5 games following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0-1 in their last 5 conference games. The over is 7-0 in NC State's last 7 following an ATS loss. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-11-14 | Michigan State -20.5 v. Purdue | 45-31 | Loss | -115 | 72 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Michigan State Spartans unbelievable collapse last week led to the most frustrating loss of the season for me when I had Michigan State minus the points. They dominated Nebraska, but some freak plays and bad calls led to a non-cover. Mark Dantonio was upset with his team after that game (as he should have been), and the Spartans will show up ready to play in this one. Purdue is a bit inflated here after they beat a listless Illinois team last weekend. Purdue is still really bad, and they won't be able to run on Michigan State. The Spartans win big. Take Michigan State. |
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10-11-14 | Northwestern +4 v. Minnesota | 17-24 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Big Ten Value Play* The Minnesota Golden Gophers have no passing game, and Northwestern just beat a Wisconsin team that is much better at running the football than Minnesota. Northwestern is still showing some value thanks to their ugly play in the first few games this year, but there's no doubt that Pat Fitzgerald's team has more talent than does Minnesota. I expect this to be a close and low scoring affair, which is why grabbing the four points makes a solid value. Northwestern is on the rise right now, and Minnesota is at a rather significant talent disadvantage. Grab the points and the dog. Take Northwestern. |
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10-11-14 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -25 | 28-38 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Wisconsin Badgers were upset in Evanston by Northwestern last weekend. It has become totally clear that Wisconsin simply cannot throw the football. The good news for them is against Illinois they won't even need to throw the ball. Illinois' defense is just atrocious against the run this year. How bad are they? The lowly Purdue Boilermakers ran for 349 yards in a stunning win at Illinois last week. If Purdue runs for 349, Wisconsin might run for 500 here. The Badgers are ticked off and Wisconsin in a bad mood should mean this one gets ugly. Illinois is also without their starting QB Wes Lunt. The Fighting Illini have a bad coach who will be fired at the end of the year, and they won't put up much of a fight. Illinois is 0-7 ATS in their last 7 October games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 on turf. They are 0-4 in their last 4 overall. A 15-0 angle. Take Wisconsin. |
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10-11-14 | Rice v. Army UNDER 60.5 | 41-21 | Loss | -106 | 35 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Totals TKO* The Army Black Knights and Rice Owls meet in a game between two teams that love to run the football. Army virtually never throws the ball, and Rice only throws it occasionally. While I do expect both teams to gain quite a few yards in this one, with the clock ticking away constantly it will be hard for them to get into the 60's. I made this total 55 points, so I see several points worth of value. Without quick scores, a total in the 60's is typically not attainable. Look for long drives that eat up a bunch of time to make it difficult for these two to reach this lofty number. Take the under here. |
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10-10-14 | San Diego State v. New Mexico OVER 46 | 24-14 | Loss | -106 | 76 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Friday Night Lights CASH* The New Mexico Lobos have one of the worst defenses in the nation. That's why when I saw a total of 46 points in this game, I jumped on the over immediately. San Diego State has a freshman quarterback starting here, and I know he didn't play well in his first start, but he should look better against this New Mexico defense. Also, Pumphrey and company should rack up a bunch of yards on the ground against New Mexico. On the other side, the Lobos are improving as an offense. This is a team that gives defenses fits because of their option and pistol looks on offense. Bob Davie's team can run the football effectively against most squads. The final last year was 35-30 when these two met. It might be lower this time around, but I think this game still tops 50 points. The over is 11-5 in New Mexico's last 16 games overall. Take the over. **Added note- This line has moved all over the place throughout the week after I selected it early in the week. I would suggest this as a 4 star play up to 50 points and a 3 star play up to 52 points. Thank you.** |
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10-09-14 | BYU v. Central Florida UNDER 48.5 | Top | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 50 h 53 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA FB Thursday TOP Play* The UCF Knights lost a lot when Blake Bortles and Storm Johnson went pro after last season. Not surprisingly, their offensive numbers have suffered in a big way. They still haven't found a reliable option at either quarterback or running back. UCF does continue to play terrific defense though, and they slow the game down by running the ball a lot and bleeding the clock in between plays. BYU is a totally different team without Taysom Hill at quarterback. Hill is out for the year with after suffering a leg injury last week. I expect that to make the BYU offense much more conservative. I also don't believe BYU will play as fast without their leader under center. UCF has played in several sloppy low scoring games already this year, and BYU is very capable of doing the same without their star offensive player. I had this total projected at 42 points, so I'm seeing a good amount of value here. Look for a defensive battle all the way. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 Thursday games. The under is 5-1 in their last 6 road games. Take the under big! **Note- This line has moved in a big way since I selected it. I recommend this as a 5 star play down to 45.5 and as a 4 star play down to 44, I would play for 3 stars down to 43. Thank you. ** |
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10-05-14 | Baltimore Ravens +3.5 v. Indianapolis Colts | 13-20 | Loss | -125 | 155 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Baltimore Ravens aren't getting the respect they deserve from the oddsmakers. Baltimore lost to a very good Bengals team in week one, and they have won all three games since. Their win over Carolina last weekend was really impressive, and Steve Smith's contributions in this offense are making the team far more dangerous. The Baltimore defense is fast and they rally to the football well. The Ravens don't have any real apparent weakness on either side of the ball. Andrew Luck is amazing, but the offensive line in front of him is awful. The Ravens should get pressure on Luck a lot in this game. The Colts secondary has been beatable, and I like the way Flacco is playing right now. Given more than a field goal, I'm taking the Ravens in a game where I think they could pull the outright upset. Take Baltimore. |
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10-05-14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers v. New Orleans Saints -10 | 31-37 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Oddsmaker ERROR* It may seem a bit odd to call a favorite at -10 in the NFL a strong value play, but I think the Saints are precisely that in this game. New Orleans sits at 1-3, and they absolutely need to go on a big run now to be any part of the playoff conversation. The Bucs have looked listless for much of the year, but they are coming off a surprise win at Pittsburgh. Don't let that win fool you, this team still isn't good. The Saints have made a bit out of covering at home under Sean Payton, and I see no reason for this trend to stop working on Sunday. Drew Brees has tons of weapons, and he'll carve up this Tampa Bay defense. The Saints defense was great against Tampa Bay last year, and they should handle them again. Look for the favorite to roll here. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a losing record. The Saints are 12-1 ATS in their last 13 home games following a loss. The Bucs are 0-7 ATS in their last 7 vs. the NFC. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 NFC South games. They are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 350 yards or more. A 31-1 angle. Take New Orleans. |
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10-05-14 | Pittsburgh Steelers v. Jacksonville Jaguars OVER 47 | 17-9 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense wasn't a huge problem last year, but this year they are arguably the worst in the league. Ben Roethlisberger is playing well in this new Steelers offense, and they are getting a good running game this year as well. Jacksonville hasn't been slowing anyone down, and I don't think they'll slow the Steelers either. Blake Bortles is clearly a big upgrade for the Jaguars at the quarterback spot. Bortles is throwing it well and moving this team up and down the field. This Pittsburgh defense is far weaker than they were a few seasons ago. Both teams should get plenty of scoring chances in this game. The over is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 after allowing 90 rushing yards or less. The over is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 games vs. a team averaging less than 75 yards per game on the ground. The over is 4-0 in the Steelers last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in the Jags last 4. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 passing yards last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a SU loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 following a loss by 14 points or more. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 in Week Five. A 42-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-04-14 | California v. Washington State OVER 76 | 60-59 | Win | 100 | 43 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* When Washington State and Cal meet there are two things that are going to happen: there are going to be a ton of passing plays, and they are going to be a bunch of points. I don't like taking totals that are this high, but I do think this one should be even higher. I made this total 82 points. Jared Goff is a very underrated quarterback, and this Cal offense is among the best in the nation. Connor Halliday can air it out with the best of them, and this Cal defense is awful against the pass. Last year's game finished at 66 points, and that was with Cal blowing a ton of scoring opportunities. Cal is much better this year, and this game should be a close one. Watch the scoreboard light up in this contest. The over is 3-0-1 in Washington State's last 4 October games. The over is 4-0-1 in Cal's last 5 after allowing 450 yards or more. The over is 4-0 in Washington State's last 4 after gaining 450 yards or more. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. A 16-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-04-14 | Nebraska v. Michigan State -7 | 22-27 | Loss | -115 | 64 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Nebraska/Michigan State MONEY* The Nebraska Cornhuskers come into this game with a perfect record, but I don't think they are the better team. Michigan State's one loss was on the road in Eugene, which is definitely not a bad loss. Nebraska is all about the running game with Ameer Abdullah. While Abdullah is a terrific runner, this Michigan State defense is tremendous at stopping the run. The Spartans will be well prepared for the Nebraska rushing attack. Tommy Armstrong isn't good enough to beat them through the air. Michigan State's offense is much better than it has been in the past. Connor Cook is becoming a very good quarterback. The Spartans should be able to move it consistently here against a mediocre Nebraska defense. Michigan State is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 home games. They are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games after gaining 450 yards or more. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 on grass. An 18-0 angle. Take Michigan State. |
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10-04-14 | Miami (Fla) v. Georgia Tech | 17-28 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Miami Hurricanes played a solid game last weekend against Duke. The Hurricanes defense impressed me in that contest. Miami does have a freshman quarterback, but the weapons he has around him makes it much easier for him to succeed. Duke Johnson is one of the best running backs in the nation, and the wide receivers at Miami are tremendous. Miami has a long history of playing Georgia Tech very tough. The Hurricanes seem to prepare extremely well for Paul Johnson's offense. Miami is sound in staying in their lanes, and that's a huge key against the option attack. Georgia Tech's defense is weak, and the Yellow Jackets have played a cupcake schedule thus far. Miami is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 after allowing 20 points or less last game. Georgia Tech is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games. They are 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 following an ATS win. They are 0-5-1 ATS in their last 6 after gaining 170 yards or less through the air. Miami is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games against the Yellow Jackets. A 25-0 angle. Take Miami. |
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10-04-14 | South Carolina v. Kentucky UNDER 56 | 38-45 | Loss | -104 | 30 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB SEC Total* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has impressed me this year. Kentucky did a great job defensively against an improving Florida offense, and they didn't allow Vanderbilt to score an offensive point last weekend. South Carolina's defense is much improved in recent weeks, and Kentucky still has a lot of room for improvement on offense. Another key factor in this game will be the weather. Wind gusts of 25 mph are expected during this game, which should lead to problems for the passing games. Expect a lot more running plays which means the clock will just keep ticking. The under is 10-3 in Kentucky's last 13 home games. Take the under. |
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10-04-14 | Arizona State v. USC -11.5 | Top | 38-34 | Loss | -110 | 89 h 42 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP ATS Play of Week* The USC Trojans are a very good team. They laid an egg earlier this year at Boston College, but many college teams will play one very bad game over the course of an entire season. I think perception on USC is still a bit too low after that one poor showing. USC's defense was amazing last week against Oregon State, and I expect the same from them this game. Arizona State has ruled out quarterback Taylor Kelly, which means backup Mike Bercovici starts again. He will struggle against this very good USC defense. It's his first start on the road, and it's against a hungry team. USC was beaten 62-41 at Arizona State last year. There are posters hanging in USC's locker room reminding them of last year's ugly loss in Tempe. They'll get their revenge this year. USC is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 after allowing 100 yards rushing or less last game. Arizona State is 0-3-1 ATS in their last 4 following a double digit home loss. They are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 after allowing more than 200 yards on the ground. A 12-0 angle. Take USC big! |
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10-04-14 | Michigan v. Rutgers UNDER 47 | 24-26 | Loss | -106 | 88 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Big 10 Total* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights running game isn't very good now without Paul James. He was their star running back and he's out with an injury. Michigan's defense hasn't been the reason for their problems this year. In fact, Michigan ranks ninth in the nation in total defense. Rutgers has a strong defensive front seven, and Michigan has no passing game to take advantage of Rutgers' weakness in the secondary. The weather here is expected to be rainy and windy, which is a big boost for the under. I expect a very sloppy low scoring game Saturday night. Take the under. |
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10-04-14 | LSU v. Auburn -7.5 | 7-41 | Win | 100 | 40 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star LSU/Auburn ATS CASH* The LSU Tigers aren't the same team they have been in the past few years. The offense is much weaker this year after Zach Mettenberger graduated. Harris will start at QB in this one for LSU. He has played well so far this year, but a freshman starting his first game on the road in a tough SEC environment is not for me. Auburn's offense has been a little less stellar than expected, but Gus Malzahn's offense will be just fine. This Auburn team has had this game circled for a long time after they were dominated by LSU in Baton Rouge last year. Auburn's much improved defense is actually better than LSU's defense. Auburn is much better on the offensive side. I don't think this game will be close. Auburn is 9-0 ATS in their last 9 conference games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 October games. They are 11-1 ATS in their last 12 on grass. A 24-1 angle. Take Auburn. |
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