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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-14-23 | Kent State v. Eastern Michigan UNDER 45.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 132 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eastern Michigan Eagles are 132nd out of 133 teams in the country in offensive explosiveness. Kent State's defense isn't good, but they have been burned by big plays quite a bit. Eastern Michigan hasn't proven capable of getting big gainers consistently even against weaker defenses. Eastern Michigan is 125th in tempo, and the Eagles run the ball a lot. They use up a bunch of time on their drives. Austin Smith isn't a good passer and the opposing defenses have started to figure out that Eastern Michigan is a weak downfield passing team. Kent State's offense is awful. The Golden Flashes are 132nd in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is running the ball on nearly 65% of their plays, but they are 131st in rushing play success rate. Eastern Michigan is 15th in explosiveness allowed. The Eagles aren't likely to give up big plays here. The long range weather forecast calls for showers and sustained winds during this game. I'm going to go ahead and bet the under as I expect a move down during the week. Take the under. |
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10-08-23 | Eagles v. Rams +4.5 | 23-14 | Loss | -110 | 74 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Rams* The Philadelphia Eagles haven't played all that well this year. They are unbeaten, but they have had a lot of close call. The Eagles needed overtime to beat the Commanders at home last week. Philadelphia is 10th in the NFL in yards per play. The LA Rams are 11th. The Eagles are 27th in the NFL in passing defense this year. What can the Rams do well? They can throw it around. We know the Rams have a great coaching staff on the offensive side, and they should put their playmakers in good spots to succeed in this game. Cooper Kupp is questionable for this game, but even if he doesn't play Nacua to have a big game here. The Eagles secondary has been bitten by the big play all year. The Rams are one spot in front of the Eagles on defense in yards per play allowed (16th and 17th). The overall stats for these two don't look all that different so far this year. Getting this many points in a home game, I'll back the Rams. Take Los Angeles. |
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10-08-23 | Saints v. Patriots UNDER 40 | 34-0 | Win | 100 | 84 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New Orleans Saints defense is solid in all areas. They are coached by a defensive minded coach, and they do a good job of minimizing big plays allowed. On the other side, New Orleans has a weak offense. The Saints are averaging just 4.4 yards per play (29th in the NFL). If you took under 40 (a very low total in today's NFL) in the last 10 games involving the New Orleans, you would be a perfect 10-0. The Saints have yet to have a game finish with a combined score higher than 37 this year. They have scored 17 points or fewer in three of their four contests. The New England Patriots are clearly a bottom eight offense in the NFL. They don't have the game breakers to threaten strong defenses. New England is still a well coached defense, and I would expect the Pats to be far more ready to play after being embarrassed last weekend by Dallas. The weather here is a factor too. Sustained winds of about 17 mph with gusts to 27 mph during this game are a help for the defenses. Take the under. |
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10-07-23 | Oregon State v. California UNDER 52 | 52-40 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers rank 4th in yards per carry allowed on the season. Cal's offense is heavily reliant on the running game. Jadyn Ott is a good running back, but the Cal offensive line is 120th at PFF in run blocking grade. I think Cal will find it difficult to get things going on the ground in this one. Oregon State is 90th in tempo, and the Beavers want to run the football. Cal is 35th in YPC allowed. Oregon State's passing attack has not been explosive. Musgrave was a big loss for the Oregon State offense. The main guys Oregon State can lean on is Fenwick and Martinez at running back. DJU has been pretty good at QB, but the offense appears designed to play it relatively safe with him in the passing game. Oregon State's battle with SD State finished with 35 points total. Oregon State and Utah finished with 28 points total. Cal played a 14-10 game against Auburn. They also just finished with only 4.2 yards per play in a 24-21 win over Arizona State. Take the under here. |
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10-07-23 | San Jose State v. Boise State OVER 57 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 32 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos are going to give both Taylen Green and Maddux Madsen playing time at quarterback in this one. Boise State has put up 42, 34, and 32 points in their last three games. The Broncos have a star running back in Jeanty, and both of the quarterbacks are playing well. Boise State ranks 14th in the nation in rushing play success rate. San Jose State's defense ranks 121st in rushing play success rate allowed. San Jose State has a pretty good offense led by Cordeiro at quarterback. The Spartans should have the ability to throw it fairly well against a Boise State secondary that is way down from a year ago. The Spartans put up 6.8 YPP against a solid Air Force defense in their last game. Boise State ranks 129th in the nation in YPP allowed on the season. The total has come down a bit here, and I will side with the over. The weather here looks perfect for this contest. Take the over. |
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10-07-23 | Notre Dame v. Louisville UNDER 54.5 | 20-33 | Win | 100 | 68 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals offense has been feast or famine so far this year. Louisville is all about breaking explosive plays. Louisville has broken 22 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They are 20th in explosiveness on offense this year. Their defenses faced are: GA Tech, Murray State, Indiana, Boston College, NC State. Of those five defenses, not a single one of them is ranked in the top 65 in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame is 10th in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame's defense is designed to not give up big plays. The Fighting Irish have allowed only 52 plays of 10 yards ore more in five games. The Notre Dame secondary is the best Louisville has played, and the the Fighting Irish run defense is very strong. Louisville's Jack Plummer has looked bad when under pressure and I think he'll get heat in this one. Louisville's defense is 20th in success rate allowed this season. The Notre Dame offense is at their best when running the football and taking time off the clock. Notre Dame's wide receivers are the weakness of the team and they are shorthanded right now too. Notre Dame has been in two low scoring contests in the last two weeks. This one should be higher than those two, but I like to stay lower than this posted total. Take the under here. |
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10-07-23 | Old Dominion v. Southern Miss OVER 55 | 17-13 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs offense is a completely new system this year under new OC Kevin Decker. Decker's teams at Fordham set all kinds of records for scoring. His innovative sets were constantly applauded by other FCS teams. Decker is doing a nice job with Old Dominion's offense too. Old Dominion is flying up and down the field with their new uptempo system. Old Dominion is 11th in tempo in the country (out of 133). Old Dominion just put up 41 points and 8.0 yards per play on a good Marshall defense last week. They have only had one low scoring game this year and that was their game against FCS Texas A&M Commerce. That game was played in very poor weather conditions. Southern Miss previously had a very good defense, but the Golden Eagles defense is a clear weakness now. They are 130th out of 133 in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.99. They have managed to give up 17 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Old Dominion is going to get some explosive plays here. Southern Miss is better on offense than they have been in recent years. Old Dominion has played a weak schedule of opposing offenses, and I believe the Monarchs defense is still fairly weak. This one has dropped to a key number here and I'll side with the over. Take the over. *This line has moved up some during the week. I would play this up to 59, but not higher than that. Thanks and good luck* |
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10-07-23 | South Florida v. UAB OVER 65.5 | 35-56 | Win | 100 | 136 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The USF Bulls brought in Alex Golesh in the offseason as their new head coach. In the offseason he said an extremely high priority for the team was pushing the pace to the extreme this year. USF ranks 5th in the nation in tempo so far this year. The USF offense wasn't firing on all cylinders right away, but there are great signs the last couple weeks. USF put up 42 points and 8.5 yards per play two weeks ago on Rice. This past weekend they put up 435 yards and 44 points on Navy. They now go against a UAB defense that grades out as worse than Rice or Navy on defense. UAB is playing very fast under Trent Dilfer too. UAB ranks 13th in the nation in tempo. The Blazers have played two really good defenses the last two weeks in Georgia and Tulane. They put up a solid 21 on Georgia and 23 on Tulane. UAB is throwing the ball on 57% of pass plays, and the USF secondary is a clear weakness. The pace will be there and I think both teams will put up a big number. Take the over. *This line has moved up some since earlier in the week. I would play this for a 4 star rating up to 69 points and for 3 stars at anything higher than that. Thanks and good luck.* |
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10-07-23 | Kent State v. Ohio UNDER 47 | 17-42 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio Bobcats defense has really impressed me this season. Ohio is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. In their last three games against Florida Atlantic, Iowa State, and Bowling Green they have allowed a total of 24 points. Against FAU, the defense gave up no touchdowns. The FAU touchdown was a pick six. Holding a Big 12 team to 7 points is excellent. Bowling Green just went to GA Tech and won too. Kent State's offense is 132nd in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Flashes have very little chance of having any true success on offense in this game. Ohio's defense is too good. The question is- how many points will Ohio score? Ohio's offense is just 121st in yards per play so far this year. I do think they'll have success against Kent State's weak defense in general. However, Ohio has shown a strong tendency to slow the pace and not run up the score when they have a big lead. Ohio has won two games by 17 or more. They haven't scored a single point in the fourth quarter of either of those games. Ohio is 122nd in the nation in tempo. In the Bowling Green game where they had a big lead, they played one of the slowest tempos of any team in a game this season. Kent State likely struggles to get to 10. Ohio has bigger fish to fry and I'm not convinced they'll try to run up the score. The long range forecast shows some winds in the 15 or 20 mph range here too. Take the under. *This one has moved down a bit during the week with the news of the weather being windy. I would play this for 4 stars down to 45, and for 3 stars lower than that. Thanks and good luck.* |
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10-07-23 | North Texas v. Navy OVER 59 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have played four games so far this year. The total scores in those four games finished at: 79 points, 75 points, 77 points, and 76 points. North Texas is 16th in the nation in tempo. The Mean Green will push the pace all through the season. North Texas is 17th in the nation in explosiveness on offense. North Texas is averaging a nice 6.41 yards per play on offense. They are up against a Navy defense that ranks 118th in the nation in success rate allowed. The North Texas defense is arguably the worst in the nation. North Texas allowed 46 points against a brutal FIU offense. They are 127th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.75. Navy's offense is 44th in the nation in yards per carry. North Texas is dead last in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 5.88 ypc allowed. The Mean Green are likely to get burned by the option quite a few times here. Navy's Horvath has shown the capability to throw a few decent deep passes the last couple games too. With the two weak defenses, I have to go over this number. Take the over. |
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10-05-23 | Bears v. Commanders OVER 44 | 40-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears defense is awful. They aren't good even when they have a healthy secondary, and now they have a banged up secondary and have the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bears are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Chicago has looked better on offense the last couple weeks. The Bears are a middle of the road offense and the worst or second worst defense in the NFL. I see Chicago as an over team right now. Washington has topped 30 points in two of their four games. The Commanders do have enough skill position talent to break some big gainers, especially against a very weak Chicago defense. Chicago's games have finished with 51, 44, 51, and 59 points. I think this total is a little too low. Take the over. |
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10-01-23 | Chiefs -8.5 v. Jets | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is a really underrated unit right now. Chris Jones makes a huge difference back in the fold. He was able to sit a lot of last week's game because the score got out of control right away against the Bears. He was limited in practice this week, but is expected to be ready to go here. Kansas City has an above average pass rush, and the Jets pass blocking is very weak. Zach Wilson is one of the worst starting quarterbacks in the NFL (maybe the worst). He is playing behind a bad offensive line, and he's going to have a lot of pressure in this one. The Kansas City Chiefs have Patrick Mahomes and Travis Kelce and company ready to go against a solid Jets defense. Andy Reid has lots of great offensive weapons at his disposal, and I don't think the Jets have an answer for stopping Kelce in the middle of the field. Wilson is 10-14 ATS as a starter in the NFL, and he has failed to cover in five straight games. The Chiefs are really tough to shut down. How many can we expect the Jets to score here? Not very many in my opinion. Take Kansas City. |
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10-01-23 | Dolphins v. Bills -2.5 | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 45 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bills* The Miami Dolphins put up 70 points last week, and the Miami offense is tremendous. I think this is a good spot to go against them though. Miami's defense is still the weakest unit in this game. The Dolphins gave up 34 points in the only game they played a good offense so far this year. Buffalo's offense will test them in a big way. Buffalo played a poor first game, but they have bounced back very nicely since. Buffalo is still one of the teams in the NFL that has the highest upside. The Bills know they need this game with their strong home field advantage. The Dolphins are a good team, but I'm selling high on them in this spot. It sounds like Damar Hamlin might take the field in this one, and that is a big emotional boost for the home team. Take Buffalo. |
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10-01-23 | Bengals v. Titans UNDER 41 | 3-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Bengals and Titans have played twice in the last couple seasons. The final scores of those two games were 19-16 (in overtime) and 20-16. This total is set low for a reason. Joe Burrow is a great quarterback when healthy. He is clearly not healthy right now. He's a battler and he'll do his best to help his team win, but it is tough for him to throw the ball down the field right now. The Bengals offense has a much harder time breaking big gainers in its current state. Cincinnati's offensive line isn't very good still, and the Titans have been shutting down the run game all year. Joe Mixon isn't likely to be very efficient here. The Bengals defensive line dominated the Rams offensive line on Monday night. The Titans offensive line is a major weakness. I think Cincinnati will get in the backfield early and often here. Tennessee wants to turn every game into a low scoring rock right. The Bengals are far more prone to that kind of game with Burrow playing severely hampered. Both teams have played at a slower than average pace this year as well. Take the under. |
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09-30-23 | Texas State v. Southern Miss OVER 59 | 50-36 | Win | 100 | 28 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats are a team I circled in the preseason that I wanted to bet a lot of overs on. GJ Kinne has completely changed the way this team plays. They brought in multiple good QB transfers. Texas State is 15th in tempo in the country. They will continually play as fast as possible. The Bobcats are very explosive on offense too. They already have 31 plays of 20 yards or more which is sixth most in the country. The Southern Miss defense was good in the past, but they are no longer good. Southern Miss lost star defensive coordinator Austin Armstrong to Florida, and they definitely miss him. The Golden Eagles just gave up 44 points to lowly Arkansas State. Southern Miss is 131st out of 133 teams in the country in explosiveness allowed. I think they'll give up big gainers here. The Southern Miss offense is 42nd in explosiveness and Texas State's defense is 116th in explosiveness allowed. Southern Miss does have 7 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Their passing game is a bit better than it has been. This number has been knocked down to a point where I have to bet this one to go over the total. Take the over. |
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09-30-23 | Miami-OH v. Kent State OVER 47.5 | 23-3 | Loss | -109 | 86 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Redhawks have a really good quarterback in Brett Gabbert. Gabbert is being very aggressive with throwing the ball downfield this year. Gabbert has one of the highest average of depth of targets in the country at 13.2 yards per pass attempt. Gabbert is a good decision maker and he gets rid of the ball pretty quickly. Rashad Amos has been a pretty good running back for the Redhawks this year as well. This team has been able to have more balance so far this year. Miami is 9th in explosiveness on offense, and I think they'll bust several big gainers in this game. Kent State is a really bad team. The Golden Flashes defense has already allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. The Kent State offense has looked a little better in recent weeks. They are up against a Miami defense that isn't as good as they have been in recent years. The Redhawks are 108th in YPP allowed. I don't think Kent State will score a lot here, but I think they can score enough. Miami's offense should have their way and this total has dropped to a number far below average in college football. Take the over. |
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09-30-23 | Virginia v. Boston College OVER 54.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College Eagles offense is definitely better than I expected with Thomas Castellanos doing a good job making some big plays from the quarterback position. Castellanos can sometimes come up with some miracle plays that are big hitters. Boston College has 16 plays of 20 yards or more in two games in the ACC (FSU and Louisville). The Boston College defense is worse than anyone could have expected. They are 127th in yards per play allowed this year. They are 132nd in opposing QBR allowed. They have already allowed 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. This secondary is really bad. Virginia's Anthony Colandrea is quite the experience. He's a youngster who can make some things happen and takes chances. He also is more than capable of throwing a pick six at any point because he tries to throw into spots that just aren't there. The Cavs are 20th in explosiveness on offense, and it is primarily thanks to him going downfield as often as possible. The Virginia defense is far worse than a year ago. The Cavs are 128th in success rate allowed on defense. Boston College is 13th in tempo on the season. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over. |
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09-30-23 | Clemson v. Syracuse +7 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Syracuse* The Clemson Tigers are in a tough spot here. They were beaten in overtime by Florida State a week ago. Clemson has struggled to create explosive plays on offense. They are just 124th in explosiveness on offense. Syracuse has been very good this year. Garrett Shrader has improved every year for the Orange. Shrader is a good dual threat quarterback. Syracuse is averaging a little over 5 yards per carry on the season. Syracuse is 9th in the country in tempo, and that high tempo offense is much improved from a year ago. I like the Syracuse defense being coached by defensive wizard Rocky Long. Long is a master and he should have a good game plan ready for Clemson. Syracuse has covered the spread in 5 of the last 6 meetings with Clemson. They have pulled outright upsets as a large dog once and three others were one score losses as a big dog. They led for much of the game last year against Clemson. I'll take the home dog. Take Syracuse. |
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09-30-23 | Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 45.5 | 14-33 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators travel to Lexington to take on the Kentucky Wildcats on Saturday. This has the makings of a game with very few possessions because of the pace both teams play at this season. Florida is 128th in tempo and Kentucky is 115th in tempo. Both teams are taking more than 30 seconds between snaps. With the new rules in college football this year, teams like these two are going to be able to eat up quite a bit of clock in each drive. Austin Armstrong is a fantastic defensive coordinator. The Florida Gators defense is much improved this year. Florida is second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are creating pressure on the quarterback and Devin Leary isn't particularly mobile. Kentucky's defense has been solid for several years in a row. The Wildcats offense looks better on paper than it is because they really haven't been tested by a single good defense yet. Last year when these two teams met the two offenses struggled badly. They put up 4.4 and 4.3 yards per play in that game. Florida is definitely better on defense this year, and the Gators are playing slower on offense. A hard fought low scoring game. Take the under. |
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09-30-23 | UL-Lafayette v. Minnesota OVER 48.5 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Golden Gophers aren't the same team they were a year ago. Minnesota had a top 10 defense in the country last year. Minnesota has only played one good offense so far this year (N Carolina) and yet they are 86th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Minnesota is 128th in third down defense. The Golden Gophers defensive front is far weaker than it has been in recent years. Louisiana has a good offensive line and a mobile quarterback who can make some big plays. The Ragin' Cajuns are averaging 6.26 ypc on the season. They have scored 31 points or more in each of their games so far this season. The Louisiana defense has allowed 38 points to Buffalo and 38 points to Old Dominion. I think Minnesota's games are being totaled too low right now based on their past history. This Minnesota team has a new OC who is playing somewhat faster and the Golden Gophers defense is far weaker. Take the over. |
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09-24-23 | Bears v. Chiefs UNDER 48 | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much improved. Many still think of KC as a team that has to win shootouts, but that is no longer true. The Chiefs are 10th in yards per play allowed so far this year. They have faced a good Detroit offense and that was without star Chris Jones. They then took on a talented Jacksonville offense and did a great job holding them to 271 yards and 9 points. The Chicago Bears are 26th in the NFL in yards per play. Justin Fields hasn't looked good at all, and the KC defensive line is likely to be far too much for this Bears offensive line. The Kansas City offense isn't quite clicking on all cylinders yet and they do still have some injuries.  There is a very strong system that backs the under here. Andy Reid at home as a big favorite has been a great under bet. Why? Reid is well known for when his team gets the lead by margin he takes his foot off the gas and doesn't use his best plays. Reid's teams at home favored by 7.5 points or more- the under is a whopping 39-16-3 since 2004. The average margin of is nearly 6 points to the under. In this situation when it is a non-divisional game the under is 28-9 in the last 37. Take the under here. |
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09-24-23 | Broncos v. Dolphins OVER 48 | 20-70 | Win | 100 | 44 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins have been the best offense in the NFL so far, and it hasn't been close. Miami is averaging a whopping 7.3 yards per play on the season. They put up 6.4 YPP on a strong New England defense. The Denver defense has regressed in a big way this year. Denver also will be without safety Justin Simmons who is a key loss against Tua and this Miami passing attack. Jaylen Waddle is questionable here. He did practice on Friday which is a good sign. It's a big bonus if he can play in this one. The Denver offense has been tremendous early in games with their scripted drives. Payton is clearly a big help to Russell Wilson and this offense in general. Denver has more big play ability, and they have picked up their tempo. I don't think the books have adjusted Denver enough based on their improvement on offense and decline on defense. Take the over. |
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09-24-23 | Falcons v. Lions OVER 46 | 6-20 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been a tremendous over team on their home turf of late. Jared Goff is a quarterback who is hurt by poor weather conditions more than most in the NFL. Goff has no concerns to worry about on the fast track at Ford Field. Goff also has a really nice cast around him now in Detroit. St. Brown is expected to play in this one and he is an elite WR. I like Gibbs getting most of the carries in the backfield here, because I view him as the more dynamic running back for the Lions. Laporta is fitting in nicely at tight end too. The Atlanta Falcons have a superstar in the backfield now in Bijan Robinson. He is a game breaker and I expect him to have a big game against a Lions defense that is below average against the run. The Falcons have enough play makers on offense now to be a problem. Ridder is slowly getting better at QB. A low total considering the Lions on the fast track. Neither defense is elite and I'll side with the over. Take the over here. |
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09-23-23 | Akron v. Indiana UNDER 46 | 27-29 | Loss | -110 | 126 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers have wisely chosen to play a completely different way this season. Indiana is no longer playing as fast as possible. They are trying to run the football and play at a slower tempo. Tom Allen knows his team needs lower scoring games. Indiana ranks 109th out of 133 teams in the country in pace of play this season. Akron is 119th in tempo so far this year. They have been behind in every game too, so they have been unwilling to pick up the tempo even when they are playing from behind. Irons has been very bad at quarterback for Akron, and Undercuffler has been getting most of the snaps. He isn't good either. Akron has absolutely no ground game. They are averaging 1.63 yards per carry on the season. The Zips defense has been better than expected. Akron is allowing only 3.09 ypc on the season thus far. These two teams are 101st and 126th in explosiveness on offense. With a slow pace and the lack of explosive plays, I think this will be a lower scoring game. Take the under. |
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09-23-23 | Duke v. Connecticut UNDER 45.5 | 41-7 | Loss | -114 | 69 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies were excited about Joe Fagnano starting as their quarterback for this season. He didn't get to play for long before he was injured. Fagnano is now out for the season. Roberson is back as the Huskies signal caller, and we have a lot of history on him. Roberson isn't very good and the team doesn't take many deep shots with him under center. UConn becomes very one dimensional on offense. The Huskies offense has been really weak this year. They are 124th in offensive success rate. Duke's defense ranks 4th in explosiveness allowed. The Blue Devils are built to not allow big plays. It is hard to imagine UConn putting together long scoring drives against anyone, and Duke is better defensively than most of UConn's opponents. The UConn Huskies defense is 23rd in explosiveness allowed. Duke is good on offense, but they are run heavy and do play at a slow pace. The weather here should be an issue. The average of four forecasts now calls for winds of about 15-18 mph and 1.5 to 2 inches of rain during the day. This should make both teams even more conservative on offense. Take the under. |
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09-23-23 | Miami-FL v. Temple UNDER 49.5 | 41-7 | Win | 100 | 68 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The primary reason for this selection is the weather. Through the years college football games that are windy and rainy have been great to under bettors. Of course there can be a wide range of results, but on the whole it is a clear net positive for lower scoring games. Wind is the most important, but adding in rain to the wind makes it that much harder for the offenses. The average of four forecasts here calls for winds of about 21 or 22 mph. There should be sustained rain throughout this game as well. There are gusts of 30 or 35 in the forecast too. In this game, we have a Miami team that ranks 127th in the nation in pace. The Hurricanes have shown they are more than willing to slow the game down and let the clock run with the new rules implemented this year in college football. Temple is a very poor rushing team. If they can't have Warner throwing it around this offense just isn't very good at all. Both of these defenses have been pretty good this season. They should have an advantage in these conditions. Take the under. |
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09-23-23 | Boston College v. Louisville OVER 54 | 28-56 | Win | 100 | 50 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Boston College defense has been awful this year. The Eagles allowed 7.3 YPP against Holy Cross a couple weeks ago. Last week Florida State put up 31 points on them with Jordan Travis banged up. It was also very windy in last week's contest. Boston College is playing very quickly. They rank 25th in the nation in tempo. The Eagles seem to have found a pretty good quarterback option in Castellanos. He has big play ability but can also turn it over. The Eagles putting up 29 points in the wind against FSU last week was a big step forward for the offense. Louisville's offense should be good with Jeff Brohm leading the way and Plummer at quarterback. The Cardinals are 10th in the nation at 7.44 YPP on offense thus far. Louisville wants to play quickly too. Louisville has quick strike ability in the passing game, and the BC secondary is a major weakness. The weather report for this one looks good. Take the over. |
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09-22-23 | Wisconsin v. Purdue OVER 53 | 38-17 | Win | 100 | 67 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Purdue Boilermakers defense has disappointed so far this year. Their secondary isn't very good, and Purdue has been torched by the big play. The Boilermakers have allowed 22 plays of 20 yards or more. They have played Fresno State, Va Tech (terrible offensively), and Syracuse. Wisconsin has the most offensive talent of the teams Purdue has faced this year. The Badgers offense hasn't been great this year, but I expect improvement under Longo. Mordecai is an above average quarterback. With two star running backs who are also good pass catchers, Wisconsin has too many weapons for this Purdue defense. The Wisconsin defense is way down from a year ago. Wisconsin is 88th in success rate allowed so far this year. The Badgers secondary is down the most. Hudson Card and OC Graham Harrell should be able to move the ball and score on this Badgers defense. Wisconsin gave up 455 yards to GA Southern last week. If Davis Brin hadn't thrown all kinds of red zone interceptions, GA Southern would have scored a bunch of points in that one. These two are 40th and 42nd in tempo in the country. I think this total is a few points too low. Take the over. |
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09-17-23 | Jets v. Cowboys -8.5 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 122 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys should be power rated as a top two or three team in the NFL right now. Dallas has upgraded on defense in the offseason. Gilmore is a big boost to a team who didn't have depth in the secondary. Dallas has one of the very best players in the NFL in Micah Parsons, and now they have no clear weakness on the defense. The New York Jets are coming off one of the most emotional wins you will ever see in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers was hurt immediately in their Monday night contest against the Bills. It looked like they were done. Instead, the defense delivered a great performance and Zach Wilson did just enough for them to win in overtime. I don't think Dak Prescott will make as many mistakes as Josh Allen did in this one. The Dallas offense has all kinds of weapons, and Pollard getting more touches now is a good thing. The Jets defense is good, but I don't think they are good enough to hold down Dallas all game. The Jets are on short rest and off an emotional win. It's a tough spot for them. Dallas is 11-5 ATS in their last 16 laying 7.5 points or more. Take Dallas. |
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09-17-23 | Giants -4 v. Cardinals | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Giants* The Arizona Cardinals were able to stay within the spread against the Washington Commanders last week. Arizona did benefit from 3 Washington turnovers in that game. The Arizona offense led by Josh Dobbs at quarterback had just 3.6 yards per play. Dobbs threw the ball 30 times and had only 132 yards passing. This Arizona offense isn't good at all. The New York Giants had things spiral out of control against a very good Dallas Cowboys team. The Giants have a lot more talent than the Cardinals, and I think the Giants have a coaching edge here too. The Giants are in a good bounce back spot. After being embarrassed in game one, they now play arguably the worst team in the NFL. The Giants appear to me to be a team that will struggle against the best teams in the league, but look good against the worst teams in the league. I think perception is too high on the Cardinals after their close loss in week one. I think perception is too low on the Giants after their big loss in week one. Take New York. |
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09-17-23 | Ravens v. Bengals -3 | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Baltimore Ravens are the most banged up team in the NFL at this point. Baltimore is without five starters for this game. J.K. Dobbins, Marlon Humphrey, Tyler Linderbaum, Ronnie Stanley, and Marcus Williams are all expected to miss this game. The two spots that are the biggest concern are the secondary and the offensive line. The Bengals have a team that can absolutely expose any secondary weaknesses to begin with, and the Ravens are missing two stars in the secondary. It will be hard to keep Chase, Higgins, and the rest of the Bengals pass catchers down in this one. Cincinnati played terribly in week one. The Bengals were embarrassed by the Cleveland Browns. The Browns have had their number of late. Cleveland's elite defensive line really bothers the Bengals and Joe Burrow. Also, the weather wasn't a help for what the Bengals like to do. Burrow once again missed the preseason and a bunch of practice time leading up to the season. The Bengals are absolutely one of the most talented teams in the NFL. They are far healthier than the Ravens. They are laying a field goal at home against a Baltimore team that is trying to run a new offense and is without two good offensive linemen. The Bengals defensive line (especially DJ Reader) could cause a lot of trouble in this game. It's a get right spot for Burrow and the Bengals. Take Cincinnati. |
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09-16-23 | New Mexico State v. New Mexico -115 | 27-17 | Loss | -115 | 41 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on New Mexico* The New Mexico Lobos upgraded in a big way at quarterback with Dylan Hopkins transferring in from UAB. Hopkins old offensive coordinator Bryant Vincent is the new OC here at New Mexico too. I know it was just Tennessee Tech, but New Mexico putting up 10.4 YPP is still impressive. The Lobos were never able to put up that point total against any weak teams in the past. Hopkins and an improved group of wide receivers give the Lobos offense a real chance against weak secondaries. Here comes a weak secondary in New Mexico State. They are 127th in the nation in coverage grade at PFF so far this year. The Aggies are also second worst in tackling grade. Diego Pavia has done great against FCS teams in his time with New Mexico State, but he has been a turnover machine in FBS contests. Hopkins gives the Lobos a big quarterback advantage here. Jerry Kill has been under the weather and has missed several practices of late for New Mexico State. This is a big rivalry game, and New Mexico State picked up the win last year. I like the Lobos to get them back here. Take New Mexico. |
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09-16-23 | Akron v. Kentucky UNDER 50 | 3-35 | Win | 100 | 41 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips offense is in really bad shape. DJ Irons has played terribly and the team has no rushing attack. Akron just ran for a grand total of 4 yards against Morgan State last weekend! Akron needed a fluke defensive touchdown in the final seconds to win 24-21 over Morgan State last week. The Zips have had 279 and 270 yards of offense against Temple and Morgan State. Now, they go against a good SEC defense. I don't know if Akron can top 10 points here. Kentucky's offense hasn't been nearly as good as expected so far this year. Devin Leary has struggled and the offense has lacked explosive plays. The Wildcats only put up 28 points against Eastern Kentucky last weekend. These two teams both play very slowly. Two bottom 25 tempo teams with the new clock rules and Kentucky should have a large lead they are looking to sit on late in the game here. I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under. |
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09-16-23 | UL-Lafayette v. UAB OVER 57.5 | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 124 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UAB Blazers are a completely different team this year under Trent Dilfer. He has sped the team up drastically, and they are airing it out a lot on early downs. Overall, UAB has passed on 59% of their offensive plays, which is the 10th highest rate in the nation. UAB's offensive line isn't very good, but the Louisiana pass rush is weak. The Ragin' Cajuns secondary has allowed too many big plays as well. I think Jacob Zeno and company could hit several big plays on them throughout this game. Louisiana put up 38 on Northwestern State and 31 points on Old Dominion. The Ragin' Cajuns have veteran quarterbacks and a solid offensive line. Louisiana would have even more points this year were it not for poor red zone offense. They have two turnovers inside the 20 yard line already and have TD's on just 3 of 7 trips into the red zone. That should regress positively over time. The UAB defense was once a big strength, but they just allowed 49 points to GA Southern last week. This total is a few points lower than I made. Both of these teams are quite a bit different from last year and the oddsmakers often have a hard time adjusting on these teams. Take the over. |
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09-16-23 | Tulane v. Southern Miss UNDER 50.5 | 21-3 | Win | 100 | 100 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave were not the same offense without Michael Pratt last week. Pratt has a knee injury and missed their 37-20 loss against Ole Miss. Pratt is still listed as questionable for this coming weekend, but there are signs he would either miss this coming weekend or be playing at far less than 100%. Pratt is key to the team without Tyjae Spears at running back like they had last year. Tulane only averaged 4.2 YPP against Ole Miss last weekend. Southern Miss was crushed by Florida State, but the Seminoles offense is going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Southern Miss is an above average defense. The Golden Eagles offensively are extremely reliant on Frank Gore Jr. in the running game. They simply cannot throw it well enough to keep defenses honest. Tulane's defense is led by new DC Shiel Wood who is a defensive mastermind. The front seven on defense has been stuffing the run extremely well for Tulane. I think they'll make Southern Miss throw it on them, and the Golden Eagles likely can't do that. Take the under here. |
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09-16-23 | Wake Forest v. Old Dominion OVER 59.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Old Dominion Monarchs got a new offensive coordinator in the offseason. The former Fordham OC had record setting offenses that played lightning fast in FCS. Old Dominion is already moving very quickly so far this season. The Monarchs are 20th in tempo out of 133 teams. Old Dominion is also getting pretty good quarterback play from Wilson, the QB who was formerly at Fordham and is playing in the same offensive system now. The Monarchs put up 38 points against Louisiana last weekend. Old Dominion's defense is still very weak. They allowed 31 points against Louisiana, and they allowed 36 against a weak Virginia Tech Hokies offense too. Wake Forest always prefers to play fast on offense. They have scored 37 and 36 points in their first two games. The Demon Deacons have too much talent at the wide receiver spot for the ODU secondary to handle. The Demon Deacons defense gave up 6.7 yards per play against Vanderbilt. Two fast paced teams and I believe this one gets past the total. Take the over. |
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09-10-23 | Eagles v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 25-20 | Push | 0 | 61 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles travel to New England to take on the Patriots on Sunday. Philadelphia is coming off a heartbreaking loss in the Super Bowl. New England's defense was still excellent last year, but their offense wasn't good. I don't see much to make me think the Patriots offense has gotten much better this year either. New England still doesn't have a good quarterback, and they are still short on weapons on the outside as well. Philadelphia is loaded defensively, and the Eagles defensive line is going to cause major problems for the Patriots in this one. Bill Belichick is a defensive minded coach, and his defenses have been very ready for the start of the season the last few years. The under is a perfect 5-0 in the Patriots last 5 season openers. The average margin of those unders is a whopping 11 points. I think they'll have a good game plan for this one too. There is a little rain in the forecast here with a slight wind too. Take the under. |
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09-10-23 | 49ers v. Steelers +2.5 | 30-7 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers played extremely well in the preseason. I fully understand the preseason is a different animal, but Mike Tomlin's team developed some great habits in the preseason. Pittsburgh has made a habit of covering as an underdog under Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are 51-27 ATS in their last 78 games as an underdog with Mike Tomlin as their coach. They are 15-4 ATS in their last 19 as a home underdog. Pittsburgh has an average ATS margin of +6.04 points in those 19 games as a home underdog. They are in that role here in week one, and I like the spot for them. The Steelers have an elite defensive line when healthy, and to start this season they are healthy. The 49ers have several key players banged up heading into this one. George Kittle and Nick Bosa are both banged up. One or both of them might play here but they are both less than 100% healthy. Kyle Shanahan's teams are 1-5 ATS in Week One of the season. The 49ers are a good team, but they haven't been ready in week one. I think the Steelers will be in this situation. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-10-23 | Bucs +5.5 v. Vikings | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Minnesota Vikings were 11-0 in one score games last year. Minnesota finished 27th in DVOA and had a negative point differential last year, but they won 13 games. Obviously, the Vikings weren't as good as their record would indicate. Minnesota has too many weaknesses on defense. The Vikings linebackers and secondary are definitely below average. Though Tom Brady is gone, the Bucs do have plenty of weapons in the passing attack to make Minnesota pay for these weaknesses. Baker Mayfield played well in the preseason. The trio of Evans, Godwin, and Gage is a very solid one for Tampa Bay. Tampa Bay clearly has the defensive edge in this one. The Bucs have Vita Vea, Lavonte David, and Shaq Barrett in the front seven. Antoine Winfield Jr. and Carlton Davis are strong in the secondary too. Minnesota has a good passing attack, but the run game is weak. I think the Vikings will get too one dimensional here. Underdogs have cashed in at a high rate in week one in the last decade. Take Tampa Bay. |
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09-09-23 | Auburn v. California OVER 54 | 14-10 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Auburn Tigers offense is clearly going to be better this year. Peyton Thorne is at least a decent quarterback (not great) and Hugh Freeze is a terrific offensive mind. Auburn has very good running back depth, and the talent in the backfield is excellent. Cal's offense looks completely different this year. Jake Spavital is the new OC and he has this team running at a very fast tempo. Cal was top 35 in the country in tempo in week one and that is even with them winning 58-21 and slowing things down late in the game. This is a new look offense that will take some shots downfield, but they will also run the ball very well. Cal's Jaydn Ott is a star running back. Auburn allowed more than 5 yards per carry in the SEC last year. They allowed 5.15 ypc last week against UMass in their win. Ott is coming off a game where he averaged 9.4 ypc. He should break some big ones here. The Cal defense is much weaker on the defensive line than they have been in past years. They generate very little pass rush. They aren't very good at stuffing things in the middle. Auburn's run game should have success here. Auburn will want to play relatively quickly with Freeze. Cal is going to play fast. The number here has gotten too low. This isn't the same Cal team from the last few years. Take the over. |
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09-09-23 | Eastern Michigan +20.5 v. Minnesota | 6-25 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Eastern Michigan* The Minnesota Golden Gophers beat the Nebraska Cornhuskers in a 13-10 comeback win in their first game. Minnesota was extremely fortunate to win that game. It was another case where Nebraska blew a game they should have won. Minnesota will play at North Carolina in a huge matchup next weekend. The Golden Gophers are in a sandwich spot here against a MAC team that didn't play very well against Howard in their first game. Eastern Michigan has been a covering machine as an underdog under Coach Chris Creighton. In fact, Eastern Michigan is 24-6 ATS in their last 30 games as an away underdog under Creighton. The Eagles have a strong running game with two very good running backs. Minnesota's defense is still good, but they aren't as dominant as a year ago. The Golden Gophers defensive line is only decent now. On offense, Minnesota had just 3.6 yards per play against Nebraska and they aren't a team that plays fast at all. I like this one to stay closer than the oddsmakers believe. Take Eastern Michigan. |
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09-09-23 | Texas v. Alabama UNDER 56.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide should play quite a bit differently this year than they did a year ago. They no longer have star quarterback Bryce Young who is now an NFL starter. The Crimson Tide should run the football a lot more than they did in the past. I also expect them to play at a slower pace. A team that runs the ball a lot and plays at a slow pace is a team that could have quite a few less possessions under the new rule with the clock running after first downs other than the last two minutes of the half. I think Alabama is one of those teams. The Crimson Tide defense is excellent. In fact, I think the Alabama defense will be quite a bit better than a year ago. Texas is a really good team overall. I see very few weaknesses on the Longhorns team. I do think they will load up the box and do a solid job limiting explosive runs by Alabama here. Quinn Ewers has still been inaccurate on deeper throws, and the Alabama secondary is a strong unit led by McKinstry. I expect both defenses to be well prepared for this huge game in Tuscaloosa. I'll take the under here. |
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09-09-23 | Middle Tennessee State v. Missouri UNDER 51.5 | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 124 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The MTSU Blue Raiders lost a ton on offense from last year. The Blue Raiders have a new quarterback who isn't very good, and an offensive line that will struggle against quality defensive fronts all season. MTSU was able to gain only 3.5 yards per play against Alabama. I'm not suggesting Missouri has a defense as good as Alabama, but the Tigers are very solid defensively. Missouri has some very good run stuffing defensive tackles. The Tigers should be able to do a great job against the MTSU run game. Missouri's offense isn't a big play offense, and they don't play at a very quick tempo. Missouri had only 3 plays of 20 yards or more against FCS team South Dakota in week one. The MTSU defense is good led by a strong defensive line. MTSU played at an extremely slow tempo against Alabama even though they were down big the entire game. I expect the Blue Raiders to keep that tempo slow in this one. Missouri put up 28 points in the first half against S Dakota, but only scored 7 in the second. The Tigers have been a team that has let up when up big in the second half in the past. Take the under here. |
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09-09-23 | Marshall v. East Carolina UNDER 46 | 31-13 | Win | 100 | 98 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd defense has been excellent the last few seasons, and I expect it to continue to be that way with Huff as their head coach. Marshall has a really good defensive line that is especially good at stuffing the run. East Carolina is without Holton Ahlers who started at QB for four years for the Pirates, and there is a significant drop off to anyone they put under center this season. I expect East Carolina to play it safe with their offensive game plan. The single biggest strength of the entire East Carolina team is their run defense. Marshall wants to run the ball with Rasheen Ali, but I expect East Carolina to make it more difficult for them than most teams will be able to. Marshall's Cam Fancher isn't a guy I trust to make big plays. Fancher can scramble a bit, but he doesn't take many shots downfield. He is a dink and dunk type of quarterback. The new clock rules should matter more in a game like this where both teams lack big playmakers on offense, and they want to run the football a lot. Take the under here. |
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09-03-23 | Oregon State v. San Jose State OVER 55 | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 97 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The San Jose State Spartans played a quick tempo last week against USC, and they put up 6.0 yards per play. While USC isn't a great defensive team, for the Spartans to put up those kind of numbers and have success offensively even in a neutral game state in the first half was impressive. Oregon State's offensive line is one of the best in the nation. Both Fenwick and Martinez are excellent running backs who are going to put up some big numbers this year. San Jose State's defensive line lost a ton of talent from last year. The Spartans are going to be much weaker on defense this season. DJ Uuiagalelei adds a dimension to the Oregon State offense too. Brian Lindgren is a great offensive coordinator and I like him to have a good plan set for this game. Oregon State's defense lost a lot from the secondary, and Speights is a big loss at linebacker as well. The Beavers are still decent defensively, but there is a clear drop off. San Jose State will push pace and hit some big plays here. Oregon State should consistently move the ball and put up a pretty big number here. Take the over in this one. |
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09-02-23 | West Virginia v. Penn State UNDER 51.5 | 15-38 | Loss | -105 | 150 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions have a fantastic defense. I think Penn State has the most talented defense in the Big Ten, and that is saying a lot with the talent Michigan and Ohio State have on defense. Penn State has the best secondary in the nation. The Nittany Lions have great linebackers as always, and their defensive line is elite at stopping the run. West Virginia has a new offensive coordinator in Chad Scott. It has been made clear in the offseason that the goal of this West Virginia new offense is to run the football and play with a much slower tempo. They will be helped in that regard by a pretty good offensive line and the new clock rules which will help them hold onto the football for longer. I am skeptical that they'll be able to score very many points here though against this excellent Nittany Lions defense. The Penn State offense has a new quarterback in Allar. I think he will be good in time, but the first game it wouldn't surprise me if they are a bit more cautious than normal. Penn State has good running backs and I think they'll run it plenty here. West Virginia's defense is better against the run than against the pass. Take the under here. |
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09-02-23 | Texas State v. Baylor OVER 57.5 | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 341 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats are going to have a whole new look this year. G.J. Kinne is their new head coach this season. He comes over from Incarnate Word where his teams were prolific offensively. Incarnate Word scored 55 points or more in seven of their games last year. Kinne is terrific at working with quarterbacks, and Texas State has an improved quarterback room this year with Hornsby and Finley. Kinne has been talking about ever since getting hired how much he wants the team to push the tempo of the game. All of their practices have emphasized playing as fast as they can. I expect them to be moving at a very quick pace here in game one. Baylor's offense should be too much for a weak Texas State defense. The defensive line and linebackers are both badly outmanned here. Texas State is going to struggle on defense even in the Sun Belt, and Baylor should be able to put up a big number on them in this one. The Baylor defense wasn't elite last year, and on paper they are less talented this year. Baylor is weak in the secondary and Texas State will look to go vertical quite a bit this year. I won't be surprised if Texas State hits some big gainers on Baylor here. This number has been pulled down because of the new rules, but I think the pace will be very quick here and I like the value on this one. Take the over. |
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09-02-23 | California v. North Texas OVER 55.5 | 58-21 | Win | 100 | 280 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Both of these teams have new offensive coordinators. Both coordinators are expected to push the pace. Cal has the same head coach, but Justin Wilcox is on the hot seat and he decided he needed to switch things up and get rid of the antiquated offense. Jake Spavital was brought in to completely change things up on offense. Cal will play much quicker and look to take more shots down the field. The team upgraded at both wide receiver and tight end in the offseason. We don't know who will be the starting quarterback, but I think they have three pretty decent options. North Texas got Chandler Rogers to transfer in from UL Monroe. He may start or it could be Jace Ruder or possibly even Stone Earle. The Mean Green have three guys who are capable. Eric Morris was hired as the new head coach this year, and Morris will call the plays here. In the scrimmages this team has played significantly faster and they have thrown the ball much more. The Mean Green defense switched to a 3-3-5, but I don't like their secondary. Running a 3-3-5 with a weak secondary can lead to a lot of big plays given up. Cal's defense has good linebackers, but overall they aren't nearly as strong on defense as they were a few years ago. This one has been bet down below the key number of 56, and I'm going to side with the over. I expect the tempo to stay very quick in this one. Take the over. |
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09-01-23 | Central Michigan v. Michigan State UNDER 47 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 101 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans host the Central Michigan Chippewas on Friday night. Michigan State's defense is unique because they are very strong against the run, but terrible in the secondary. That makes this a good matchup for the defense. Central Michigan has one of the worst passing attacks in the country. The Chippewas will want to run it, but I think the Spartans defensive front will be too strong. Central Michigan's offense should be one of the worst in the MAC this year, but their defense is above average. They have a lot of veteran in the front seven on defense. Michigan State also has very little passing game, and the Spartans are going to want to run the football a lot. With the new clock rules- a game between two teams looking to run the football a lot will really move much quicker. Take the under here. |
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08-26-23 | Florida International v. Louisiana Tech OVER 57 | 17-22 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs have a very talented offense. Hank Bachmeier transferred in from Boise State, and he gives this team a big upgrade at quarterback. Last year, FIU beat LA Tech in double overtime 42-34. LA Tech had a third and fourth string quarterback under center for that game. This time around LA Tech has a very solid quarterback under center. He is also surrounded by very good skill position weapons. Smoke Harris is a star on the outside and on kick returns. The offensive line returns intact and should be improved. FIU's defense is overmatched in this one. The LA Tech defense allowed 6.12 yards per carry last year. That is just insane. FIU isn't that good offensively, but they do return their quarterback in James. The other thing that helps in a game like this for the over is FIU's willingness to take shots down the field and to go for it on 4th down. That is a clear positive for the over. The weather here is interesting. It is going to be very hot and humid on Saturday in Ruston. This game starting at night makes it a bit cooler, but gametime temperature is set to be in the upper 80's with high humidity as well. All trends show that heat has been a clear net positive for more scoring in college football in the last decade. Take the over. |
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02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -120 | 38-35 | Loss | -120 | 53 h 54 m | Show | |
*2 Star Play on Eagles ML* The Philadelphia Eagles have been a very complete team all year. They lead the league in sacks with 77. It is the best pass rush in the NFL. The Eagles also have the best offensive line in the NFL. If you are this good in the trenches, you are a very tough out. Philadelphia should be able to run the football in a way that the Jaguars and Bengals weren't able to against this Chiefs defensive front. Kansas City is a below average run defense, and I think that will really hurt them in this game. The Eagles have a great runner in Jalen Hurts and three great options at running back as well. Kansas City is a very good team, but they come into this game pretty banged up. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league, but his weapons aren't nearly as good now as they were in previous years or even at the start of the season. The Chiefs running backs are poor in pass protection and that could come back to bite them in this one. I think the Eagles are the more complete team. Take Philadelphia on the moneyline at the short price. |
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01-29-23 | 49ers v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers have made it to the NFC Championship Game with rookie quarterback Brock Purdy leading the way. It certainly doesn't hurt to have the weapons he has around him, but Purdy has done a good job. My concern with Purdy is he has played some very weak defenses up until last week against Dallas. The Cowboys made him look very shaky. The Eagles have 70 sacks this year, and they are going to bring a lot of pressure. Can Purdy handle it here? I would expect Kyle Shanahan to have a fairly conservative game plan on offense here. We've seen the 49ers run the football a bunch in the past, and they may well do it again here. I'm not sure if Jalen Hurts is 100 percent healthy yet. He is very good even at less than 100 percent, but the 49ers have the front seven to make him uncomfortable in the backfield. Nick Bosa is an absolute beast, and the rest of the defensive line is great as well. The Eagles did allow 44 sacks this year. The 49ers have the slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. If they are running the ball a lot here the drives could take up a bunch of time. Both of these defenses have been pretty good at not giving up the big play. Take the under here. |
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01-22-23 | Bengals +6 v. Bills | 27-10 | Win | 100 | 25 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals are 36-17 ATS in their last 53 road games. Cincinnati is 12-3-1 ATS in their last 16 games vs. a team with a winning record. The Bengals have been underrated by the oddsmakers for a good while. The Bengals have a superstar quarterback in Joe Burrow. He's a fantastic leader who stays calm at all times. He throws such an accurate football. He has elite weapons in Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Hurst. The Bills secondary is their biggest weakness. I expect the Bengals to hit some big plays in the passing game here. Buffalo is a really good team, but they have struggled with turnovers. Josh Allen has fumbled a bunch and thrown some key interceptions through the year. This Bengals defense is underrated by many. They have a lot of ballhawks on the unit. DJ Reader is an elite run stuffer. Logan Wilson is an excellent linebacker. The pass rush led by Hendrickson and Hubbard should do some damage too. The concern is certainly the Bengals offensive line, which is badly shorthanded here. I do expect the Bills pass rush to get to Burrow through this game. Still, this line has gone from -3.5 to -6. The Bengals were playing very well against the Bills in the first game when it was stopped. I think this is too many points for a very solid Bengals team. Take Cincinnati. |
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01-14-23 | Seahawks v. 49ers UNDER 43 | 23-41 | Loss | -115 | 85 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers host the Seattle Seahawks in Santa Clara on Saturday afternoon. You don't often think of weather issues in games in California, but the weather is very weird in the San Francisco area right now. There are major rainstorms in the area and that has caused massive flooding already. The weather for Saturday calls for rain and winds of 13 mph with gusts of 25-28 mph. This field surfae is considered a slow field (a plus for unders) and now it should be very wet. The wind is a big boost as well. Seattle's offense hasn't been very good down the stretch. As good as Geno Smith was early in the year, he really struggled late in the season. San Francisco's defense is one of the top three defenses in the NFL. The 49ers offense has been good under Purdy, but their point totals have been inflated due to great field position and defensive touchdowns. Both of the regular season meetings finished with a total of 34 points. Take the under. |
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01-08-23 | Rams +6 v. Seahawks | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on LA Rams* The Seattle Seahawks haven't been playing very well at the end of the season. The Seattle offense has slowed down a lot in recent weeks. Geno Smith started the year on fire, but Smith has been struggling a lot in recent weeks. Seattle had a lot of trouble with Los Angeles a few weeks when Wolford started for the Rams. Baker Mayfield isn't good, but he is better than Wolford. Also, Mayfield hits his running backs and tight ends a lot and that is an area where the Seattle defense has struggled a lot this year. Cam Akers is running the ball much better of late. The Seahawks are a bottom ten run defense in the NFL. The weather in this game looks questionable, and I think Akers could have a solid game here. The Seahawks are a flawed team, and I think they are laying too many points here against an NFC West foe. Take the Rams. |
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01-02-23 | Tulane v. USC OVER 64 | 46-45 | Win | 100 | 10 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave are led by star running back Tyjae Spears. Spears is averaging 8.9 yards per carry over his last seven games. Tulane's Michael Pratt has a 25/5 touchdown to interception ratio. The Green Wave are far more dynamic on offense than most believe. The USC defense has been bad all year. USC is 128th in success rate allowed against the run. The Trojans are 113th against the pass. If they aren't forcing loads of turnovers, they are giving up a bunch of yards and points. Tulane's defense has been hurt by the best offenses they have played. They are up against the most talented offense they have played all season here. Tulane's run defense is a particular concern here. USC's offensive line ranks 8th in offensive line yards. Tulane's defense ranks 100th in stuff rate and 118th in havoc. Caleb Williams is said to have healed up pretty well during the team's long break between games. USC should be able to put together quick scoring drives against a Tulane defense that is outmanned. Take the over. |
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01-01-23 | Steelers +2.5 v. Ravens | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 54 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers are fighting hard to finish above .500. Mike Tomlin has never had a record worse than .500, and they need to win the last two games to keep that amazing streak going. Pittsburgh has been fighting hard, and playing much better football of late. The first meeting between these two Pittsburgh clearly outplayed Baltimore, but lost by 2 because of three turnovers. That was Mitch Trubisky, but it will be Kenny Pickett in this one. Tyler Huntley should be the starter for the Ravens here. Huntley isn't a dynamic quarterback, and the Ravens are really lacking big playmakers on offense. Mike Tomlin is a stunning 50-27 ATS in his last 77 games as an underdog. He is 20-8 ATS as an underdog vs. AFC North competition. The games between these two teams have come right down to the wire in low scoring games consistently. This should be the same, but I like the Steelers chances of pulling the small upset here. Take Pittsburgh. |
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01-01-23 | Bears v. Lions OVER 52 | 10-41 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions defense ranks dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed this year. Detroit has allowed 6.3 yards per play on the season. For a while many people thought the Lions defense was improving a lot, but now in their last three games they have allowed 7.0 yards per play. The Lions are a very weak defense. The Chicago Bears traded away some of their best defenders earlier in the year. Chicago's defense actually ranks dead last in Total EPA on the season now. They rank third worst in yards per play allowed for the season as well as in their last three games. This might be the two worst defenses in the NFL up against each other. The Lions have been an offensive juggernaut at home this year, and this Bears defense is the worst defense they have played at home. Chicago's Justin Fields has been playing well. He has the ability to extend plays and be a major force with his legs. This game is played in a dome on a fast track. I like the offenses to have a big day. Take the over. |
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12-31-22 | Ohio State v. Georgia OVER 60.5 | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 558 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is far better than most give it credit for being. Georgia is 4th in the nation in offensive success rate. The Bulldogs are 7th in yards per play. They have 69 red zone scores in 71 trips into the red zone. In those 71 trips into the red zone, an impressive 48 possessions have ended in a touchdown. Ohio State's offense is 9th in the nation in success rate, but they are 2nd in the nation in yards per play. The Buckeyes have 40 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far. Ohio State's passing game should do some damage in this game. Georgia is 11th in QBR allowed, but the Bulldogs didn't face many really good passing attacks. LSU put up 505 passing yards on them in the SEC Championship game. The Buckeyes wide receivers are the best in the country, and C.J. Stroud should be able to hit some big gainers here. Ohio State gave up all kinds of explosive plays against Michigan, and the Buckeyes secondary is vulnerable. Stetson Bennett has improved a lot as a passer, and his ability to keep plays alive with his legs will bother Ohio State here too. Georgia's Brock Bowers is going to have a huge game here. I think both offenses will have success here. Take the over. |
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12-30-22 | Maryland v. NC State UNDER 46 | 16-12 | Win | 100 | 21 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The NC State Wolfpack defense has been great all year. NC State does have a couple opt outs on defense, but the majority of their star studded defense decided to play here. I think NC State is motivated here, and I expect to see a good performance from this defense. Maryland's offense was good during the season, but the single biggest strength of the Terrapins was their deep group of talented receivers. Three of their top four receivers opted out of this game. The wide receivers are now unproven and that will make life tougher on Taulia Tagovailoa. The Maryland running game wasn't very good during the season, and NC State has a top ten defense against the run. The NC State offense hasn't gotten more than 5.0 YPP in a game since their win over UConn way back at the beginning of the season. They were the worst offense in the ACC. I don't expect them to come out and have a lot of success either. This should be a sloppy game throughout. Take the under. |
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12-28-22 | Kansas +3 v. Arkansas | 53-55 | Win | 100 | 30 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kansas* The Kansas Jayhawks played the 4th toughest schedule in the country (Sagarin) compared to Arkansas who played the 22nd toughest schedule. Kansas was 21st in net YPP margin while Arkansas was only 87th. Bumper Pool, Myles Slusher, and Chase Lowery are huge losses for the Arkansas defense. None of those guys will play in this game. The Kansas balanced attack should have success on offense against a very weak Arkansas defense. The Razorbacks have been terrible defensively even with those strongest players in the lineup, and now they are all out. The Jayhawks are an explosive offense both through the air and on the ground. Lance Leipold is a great schemer as a head coach. Kansas hasn't been in a bowl game in a very long time. They have to be extremely motivated to be in this situation. Arkansas will score plenty here too, but Kansas' run defense is at least better than the pass defense. Arkansas is reliant on the run. The motivational factors here favor Kansas, and I'm getting a full field goal. Kansas played the much tougher schedule as well. Take Kansas. |
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12-27-22 | East Carolina -7 v. Coastal Carolina | 53-29 | Win | 100 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on East Carolina* The East Carolina Pirates take on the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers here. East Carolina was set to play a bowl game last year against Boston College, but due to COVID issues that game was canceled. Now, East Carolina finally gets their first bowl game with Houston at the helm. The Pirates motivation level should be very high here. Holton Ahlers is a veteran signal caller who has done a good job as the leader of this offense. East Carolina's offense has been very explosive all year. The Pirates are 29th in explosiveness. They are balanced with a solid run and pass game. Coastal Carolina's secondary has been awful all year. Coastal ranks 126th in opponent QBR this season. Ahlers should have a big game here. Mike Houston had a ton of postseason success at James Madison, and I expect him to have his team ready to play. Coastal Carolina will have an interim coach here with Chadwell moving on. Grayson McCall is transferring, but will play in this game. Coastal will be without star offensive lineman Willie Lampkin as well. Their best pass rusher Josiah Stewart will miss this game too. East Carolina played a much tougher schedule and ranks 57th in YPP margin, while Coastal Carolina was only 93rd. Take East Carolina. |
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12-24-22 | Texans v. Titans UNDER 35.5 | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 43 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Malik Willis gets the start here for the Tennessee Titans. He started the first matchup between these two. That game finished 17-10. The Titans ran the ball 45 times that game. Malik Willis threw the ball only 10 times for a total of 55 yards. The Titans play at the single slowest tempo of any team in the league. With Willis under center the Titans play calling will be ultra conservative. Derrick Henry has had success against the Texans, and he likely will here again. Still, these should be long drives that take a lot of time off the clock. The Texans offense had a measly 161 yards of offense in the first meeting between these two. Houston has been really bad on offense away from home. This game has 13 mph winds with gusts of 21 mph in the forecast. That could be a small bonus too. Take the under here. |
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12-24-22 | Falcons v. Ravens UNDER 35.5 | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 42 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* It is Desmond Ridder against Tyler Huntley in this matchup. The Falcons play calling has been really conservative all year, and that isn't going to change with Ridder at quarterback. Atlanta wants to run the football, but Baltimore has a top five run defense in the NFL. The Falcons are 26th out of 32 teams in the NFL in tempo as well. The Ravens coaching staff took a lot of heat for how many times they threw the ball last week. I would expect a lot more running int his one. Huntley is only mediocre as a quarterback, and this Ravens offense is not explosive right now. The weather is a bonus here too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 16 mph and gusts of 25 mph throughout the game. Take the under here. |
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12-24-22 | Giants v. Vikings OVER 47.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 42 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings defense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The New York Giants defense ranks 28th in yards per play allowed. These two bad defenses square off in a game played in a dome this weekend. The Giants certainly aren't a great offense, but the Vikings have had a way of making bad offenses look good. The Vikings have allowed 26 against the Patriots, 36 against the Colts, and 26 against the Cardinals. The Vikings offense is dangerous. Kirk Cousins is surrounded by great skill position talent. I don't think the Giants have anyone to slow Jefferson here. Look for this game to be back and forth at least for a while. Take the over. |
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12-20-22 | Toledo v. Liberty UNDER 54.5 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 77 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets have the best defense in the MAC. The MAC is a league where there are loads of high scoring shootouts between a lot of teams who have virtually no defense. Toledo is by far and away the best defensive team in the league. They rank 12th in yards per play allowed on defense. They are 8th in the nation in success rate allowed. Liberty was a solid team defensively for much of the year as well. The Flames are 27th in YPP allowed and 10th in success rate allowed. Liberty's defense played poorly late in the season, but I think the players knew Freeze was out the door and now that he is actually gone it is more likely we see a more motivated Liberty team again. The two offenses have been very inconsistent. Both offensive lines have given up quite a few tackles for loss. The weather in Boca Raton calls for 15 mph winds and gusts of 25-30 mph during this game. The current forecast also calls for an 80% chance of rain during this game. I like the under some even with a normal weather setup, but if this weather comes to fruition it is a huge positive for the under. Take the under. |
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12-18-22 | Titans v. Chargers OVER 46.5 | 14-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans want to run the football. There are a lot of really good rushing defenses in the NFL. The LA Chargers are not one of those. LA is in fact the worst rushing defense in the NFL. Derrick Henry and company should have success on the ground against the Chargers. The LA Chargers offense is completely different with Mike Williams on the outside to help Justin Herbert stretch the field. The Chargers play at the second fastest tempo in the league, and they should get plenty of scoring chances here. The Titans defense is badly banged up, and Tennessee is second last in the NFL in yards per play at 6.2 YPP allowed in their last three games. The Titans have allowed 71 points in their last two games. This is a fairly low total where both teams have clear offensive advantages. Take the over. |
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12-18-22 | Cowboys v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 59 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys are 4th in the NFL in tempo. The Jacksonville Jaguars are 9th in the NFL in tempo. There should be more possessions in this game than an average NFL game. The Dallas Cowboys offense is no question a top ten offense in the NFL now that they are much healthier. Dallas has a good balanced attack, so they can beat you in many different ways. Dallas has put up an average of 37.25 points per game in their last four games. Jacksonville's offense has been much better of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing really well right now. The Jaguars offensive line has improved, and the Jaguars have some solid weapons around Lawrence. The Jacksonville defense is a bottom ten defense in the NFL. While the Jags offense has improved of late, the defense really hasn't. The Dallas Cowboys secondary has cluster injuries right now and Jacksonville should be able to attack them through the air. Take the over. |
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12-17-22 | Dolphins v. Bills UNDER 44.5 | 29-32 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense ranks second in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. Overall for the season, they rank eighth in yards per play allowed. This is a very solid unit, which is playing its best football of the season of late. The Miami Dolphins offense is looking very shaky right now. Miami was very fortunate to even put up 17 points on the Chargers last week. The one touchdown was just a busted play turned into a touchdown by Tyreek Hill and his wheels. Hill is questionable for this game though. Buffalo's Josh Allen hasn't played nearly as well since his arm injury. I think it is bothering him more than he is admitting at this point. His numbers have been ordinary in the last few weeks. The Bills offense is still good, but they aren't the dominant offense they looked like early in the season. The conditions for this game favor an under. There is snow in the forecast for throughout the game and winds of about 15 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That is a clear positive for the under. Tua doesn't have a strong arm and the Dolphins aren't a good running team. Buffalo will likely be more conservative on offense. Take the under. |
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12-17-22 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 38 | 3-13 | Win | 100 | 125 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The number here has already moved down a few points, and I think it should move more to the downside. First, Tyler Huntley got a concussion in the Steelers contest on Sunday. Huntley is an above average backup. He is unlikely to be cleared by Saturday for this Browns contest. If not, John Harbaugh made it sound like it would be Anthony Brown starting this game. It seems like Lamar Jackson will be out for this game as well. The second key reason the total is dropping here is the weather report in Cleveland on Saturday. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph or so. That is enough to impact the game in a big way. Deshaun Watson doesn't look very sure of himself in his first two games. He looks uncomfortable and like he needs more time to get reps in this offense. The Ravens defense has gotten much better through the year. The Browns defense played pretty well against the Bengals as well. Take the under here. |
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12-17-22 | Louisville v. Cincinnati UNDER 43 | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 116 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Louisville Cardinals defense was underrated through the year this year. Louisville finished 40th in YPP allowed. The Cardinals sacked opponents a whopping 42 times on the season. They are an aggressive defense, but they still were a solid 52nd in explosiveness allowed. Malik Cunningham and Tiyon Evans have both opted out of this game. Cunningham was the guy that made things go for this Cardinals offense. He created big plays out of nothing. Evans was very efficient as well. Tyler Hudson is also not expected to play here. Louisville is without their head coach from the season as Satterfield goes over to Cincinnati. What a weird spot here in this bowl game. Cincinnati is also without their coach after Luke Fickell left for Wisconsin. The Bearcats are expected to be without Josh Whyte (TE) and Tre Tucker (WR). Their center also entered the transfer portal. Cincinnati's offense didn't end the season playing well. The Bearcats had just 4.9 YPP against Tulane and 5.0 YPP against Temple. Fenway Park is the site for this bowl game. The weather here calls for 10-20 mph winds through the game with even a small chance of rain/snow. Take the under here. |
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12-11-22 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45 | 48-22 | Loss | -108 | 45 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Giants defense has been keeping them in games even when the offense has been really weak. The Eagles defense now ranks first in the NFL for the season in yards per play allowed. This is a late season divisional matchup. Those have been great for under bettors through the years. Between games 10 and 16 of the season, divisional totals set at 43 points or higher have gone under at a 58.1% clip since 2004. The sample size there is more than 550 games. The weather here could play a role as well. The weather calls for 10 mph winds and rain that could even mix with a little bit of snow during this game. Those are positives for the under. I expect both teams to run the ball quite a bit here and I think the defenses will do a solid job not giving up the big plays. The under is a perfect 14-0 in the Giants last 14 as a home underdog. Take the under. |
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12-11-22 | Vikings v. Lions OVER 51.5 | 23-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have been an over machine at home. Detroit's home games have gone over this total six times, while only one game has gone under this total. The Lions have scored 35 points or more in four of their home games this year. They are back at home against a Minnesota defense that ranks bottom five in the NFL in many categories. Minnesota still has the most dominant receiver in the NFL. Detroit is really weak in the secondary. Good passing teams have taken advantage of the Lions on a consistent basis. Kirk Cousins is at least an average quarterback, and in these conditions he has been good through the years. These two teams rank 7th and 8th in pace of play in the NFL. Take the over. |
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12-11-22 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 37 | 16-14 | Win | 100 | 12 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens are clearly a different team on offense with Tyler Huntley at quarterback than Lamar Jackson. The loss of the big play ability is a big hindrance to the offense. Huntley is a decent backup, but the Ravens lack star power at the rest of the skill positions and I would expect their offensive game plan to be fairly conservative here. Baltimore's defense has gotten quite a bit better of late. The Ravens picked up Roquan Smith, and he has been their best defensive player. Combining him with Patrick Queen is a dangerous tandem. Two of the Ravens last three games have finished at 16 and 19 total points. Pittsburgh has seen two of their last four games finish under this very low posted total. This is a divisional rivalry where points have been at a premium in the long term. Pittsburgh is healthier on defense now, and the Steelers lack big play ability on offense too. Their run game is very inefficient and that puts too much pressure on Pickett. Take the under. |
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12-04-22 | Seahawks -6.5 v. Rams | 27-23 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks have all kinds of reasons to need to win this game. Seattle is 6-5 and still in the thick of the playoff race, but their losses to the Bucs and Raiders in their last two games have really hurt them. Seattle is in major need of a bounce back win. The LA Rams won the Super Bowl last year, but this team has been a dumpster fire this year. Injuries are certainly one of the main reasons. They will be without Matt Stafford, Cooper Kupp, and Aaron Donald for this game. Their offensive line is in shambles as well. John Wolford will start for the Rams here, and Bryce Perkins may play as well. Seattle's defense can be beaten, but this Rams offense hasn't been able to do anything against anyone of late. Seattle's offense has plenty of healthy weapons for Geno Smith. Smith has been fantastic this year, and without Donald on the line Smith should get a lot more time to throw in this one. Take Seattle. |
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12-04-22 | Titans +4.5 v. Eagles | 10-35 | Loss | -108 | 23 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Titans* The Tennessee Titans should be a tough matchup for the Philadelphia Eagles. The Eagles have a bottom ten run defense in the league. The Titans are going to run the football early and often with Derrick Henry and their strong offensive line. Tennessee is coming off a tough loss to the Cincinnati Bengals last week. I really like Mike Vrabel's team as both a road underdog and coming off a loss. Vrabel is one of the best coaches in the NFL. He gets his team to play hard at all times. The Titans are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games. They are also 4-1 ATS in their last 5 coming off a loss. The Philadelphia Eagles are a good team, but they haven't been playing as well lately as they did earlier in the year. Philadelphia is a run heavy team, and the Titans run defense is top five in the NFL. I expect this to be a tight game all the way down to the wire, so I'll grab the points. Take Tennessee. |
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12-04-22 | Jaguars v. Lions OVER 51 | 14-40 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Detroit Lions have the worst defense in the NFL. They also have a very good offense when Jared Goff and company are in a dome on a fast track, like they are on their home field. Detroit's home games have finished with this many total points: 73, 63, 93, 58, 24, and 53. That's an average of 60.67 points scored per game in the Lions home games this year. Jared Goff has plenty of weapons around him to start with, and now Jameson Williams makes his debut. Williams is a supremely talented guy who will help this offense a lot. Jacksonville's offense has started clicking of late. Trevor Lawrence is playing his best football as a pro right now. He'll go up against that worst defense in the NFL in perfect conditions. I don't see any reason to expect Detroit's defense to have much success here. Jerome Boger's crew is the ref crew for this game. Boger is a great over ref. His crew is well known for a lot of defensive holding and pass interference penalties. The over is 124-94 in Boger's games. That's a 57% over rate. Take the over. |
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12-03-22 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 61.5 | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* It's Kansas State vs. TCU in the Big 12 Conference Championship on Saturday afternoon at AT&T Stadium. The first game between these two was a wild one. Kansas State led 28-10 before TCU came storming back and won 38-28. At one point in that game, Kansas State was down to their third string QB (and that didn't go well). Will Howard is expected to get the majority of the playing time here. Howard has been playing great. He has 11 TD's and just 1 interception since the first meeting between these two. Howard threw for 225 yards on only 20 pass attempts in the first meeting with TCU. Kansas State is averaging 40.2 points per game in their last five games overall. The Wildcats have a big play guy in the backfield in Vaughn and he should have a big game here. On the other side, TCU is loaded and balanced on offense. Max Duggan is in the Heisman Trophy talk because he has been so consistently tremendous. TCU has been without their star wide receiver (Johnston) of late, but he is expected back and at 100% for this game. TCU is 9th in the country in yards per play on offense. They are 5th in the nation in explosiveness. On a fast track here I think both offenses will have a lot of success, and there should be big gainers coming from both sides. This should be a tight game, and overtime is a possibility as well. Take the over here. |
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11-27-22 | Rams v. Chiefs UNDER 42.5 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 13 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Bryce Perkins gets the start here for the LA Rams. Perkins is the third string quarterback for the Rams and he is in a really tough spot here. Without Cooper Kupp on the outside, Perkins isn't exactly surrounded by great weapons. The Rams will want to run the football here, but the Chiefs have quietly been solid against the run this year. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs could probably score quite a few points here, but I'm not sure they will keep their foot on the gas here. Andy Reid's teams have historically constantly been quick to let up and run the clock when they are a big favorite. They are more than a 2 TD favorite here. Kansas City will run the ball more than normal here too. That helps the Rams who do have a top ten run defense. Take the under. |
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11-27-22 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 43 | 0-13 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I think Jimmy G is an underrated quarterback on the whole, and he is surrounded by some of the best weapons in the NFL. When you have guys like Samuel, Kittle, Aiyuk, and McCaffrey around you it is going to be a lot of fun. The Saints defense has had a couple good games, but overall they have been a big disappointment. The Saints aren't the same without Lattimore in the secondary either. They'll miss him badly in this one. The Saints have been moving the ball well, and the Saints are more than capable of pick 6's with Dalton at quarterback against a defense that takes chances. At the same time, the Saints receivers are good and I think they can create some big plays here. Take the over. |
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11-27-22 | Chargers v. Cardinals OVER 48 | 25-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers offense has been badly shorthanded most of the year. Justin Herbert now has his weapons back at wide receiver and that should make this passing attack be much better the rest of the way. Herbert is still a really good quarterback, and the Chargers play at a quick pace. They are up against a very weak Cardinals secondary. I expect the Chargers to get a lot of big plays here. The Cardinals defense didn't look interested late against the 49ers in their most recent game. Kyler Murray comes back for the Cardinals here, and that is a clear help to the over. With DeAndre Hopkins this Cardinals offense and Murray this offense has big play potential. The Chargers are allowing nearly 26 points per game. Take the over. |
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11-26-22 | Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 47.5 | 14-62 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs are trying to keep their dream season going. TCU has been winning a bunch of close games of late. While their records wouldn't indicate this would be particularly close, Iowa State has an excellent defense. Iowa State is the best defense in the Big 12. The Cyclones are 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Iowa State has played seven straight games that have finished at 45 points total or fewer. Four of those seven games have finished at 34 points total or fewer. TCU's defense has improved a lot, and this is a well coached unit. Iowa State has the best defense in the Big 12 and the worst offense in the Big 12. Iowa State is 121st in the nation in ypc on the year. If TCU does get a decent lead here there isn't much incentive for them to run up the score. They'll have a very tough game next week in the Big 12 title game. There is 14 mph winds in the forecast here and a slight chance of rain during the game. Take the under. |
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11-26-22 | Oregon v. Oregon State UNDER 59 | 34-38 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon State Beavers rank 126th in tempo in the country. They are running the football on nearly 62% of their offensive plays in Pac 12 contests. Oregon State has been far less explosive on offense with Gulbranson at quarterback, but he also doesn't make the big mistakes that Nolan was making. That has made this Oregon State team more of an under team than they were earlier in the year. Oregon's Bo Nix is banged up with an ankle injury. He only attempted one run last week against Utah. The Utes defense did a great job slowing down Oregon in that game. Oregon State's defense has been much better than Utah's on the whole this season. The Beavers are #1 in the Pac 12 in total defense. Though both offenses are solid, they are 97th and 115th in explosiveness on offense. Even the scoring drives should take some time here, and I think both defenses can get some holds in the red zone. Take the under in this rivalry game. |
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11-26-22 | Troy v. Arkansas State UNDER 45.5 | 48-19 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Troy has the best defense in the Sun Belt. The Trojans excel in not giving up big plays which I think is really key to a lower under. Troy is 10th in yards per play allowed on the season and they are 12th in preventing explosive plays. Arkansas State's offense is far less potent than it has been in recent years. The Red Wolves have also drastically slowed down their pace of play. Arkansas State is 79th out of 131 in tempo this year. Troy is even slower at 101st. The weather here should be a factor too. The forecast calls for 90 percent chance of rain and winds of about 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Both defenses are much better than the offenses in the run game. Expect more running than normal here thanks to the weather. Take the under. |
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11-26-22 | Georgia State v. Marshall UNDER 50 | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 132 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have seen no more than 49 total points scored in their last eight games. In 7 of their last 8, the combined total in the game has finished at 37 points or less. Their game that hit 49 points had two special teams touchdowns. Marshall is fantastic on the defensive side of the ball. The Thundering Herd rank second in the nation in success rate allowed. They are sixth in yards per play allowed. Georgia State runs the ball on 67% of their offensive plays. Marshall is allowing only 2.96 ypc on the season. Georgia State hasn't shown the ability to throw the ball around very often at all this year. Marshall's offense is very weak. Cam Fancher is a below average quarterback who doesn't take many shots down the field. The Thundering Herd will try to lean on their running game as well. Marshall ranks 130th out of 131 teams in the nation in offensive explosiveness. They'll run the ball a lot and their drives will take quite a bit of time. While Georgia State isn't great on defense, they do get in the backfield a lot. They are 42nd in defensive havoc caused by the front seven. Marshall's offensive line is 126th in the country in havoc allowed. Marshall should get behind the sticks quite a bit too. Take the under. |
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11-25-22 | Baylor v. Texas UNDER 56 | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns host the Baylor Bears on Friday in an early game in Austin the day after Thanksgiving. Texas has made some big strides on defense this year. The Longhorns are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 27th in success rate allowed. Texas has occasionally given up big plays, but Baylor isn't a team that gets a lot of big plays this year with Blake Shapen at quarterback. Baylor is coached by a defensive mind in Dave Aranda. The Bears have only allowed 41 plays of 20 yards or more so far this year. They should be able to limit Texas' big plays better than most teams have. The weather should play a role in this game too. The current weather forecast calls for half an inch of rain during the game and winds of about 14 mph with gusts above 20 mph. That should make both teams more conservative and those conditions clearly benefit the under in the long run. Take the under here. |
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11-24-22 | Bills -9 v. Lions | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bills* The Buffalo Bills have looked like the best team in the NFL when they are focused and playing at their best. They have had several games in a row where they played weaker games than normal. Now, the Bills are in a prime spot here with all eyes on them for the Thanksgiving spotlight game against the Lions. Detroit comes into this game winners of its last three games. The Lions really aren't a good team though. Detroit has the worst defense in the NFL on a yards per play allowed basis. The Bills have too many weapons for the Lions to slow them down. Detroit has consistently been very weak in these Thanksgiving contests. Buffalo played in Detroit last weekend which might be a small positive as well. Take the Bills. |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48.5 | 40-3 | Loss | -106 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys will square off in a big game in Minnesota on Sunday. Minnesota's offense has big play potential with Justin Jefferson. Kirk Cousins on the whole is a pretty solid quarterback too. Dalvin Cook just ran for 8.5 ypc against the Bills who are a solid defense. Cook has game breaking speed and is capable of busting a big one at any time. The Dallas offense has put up well north of 400 yards in back to back games. With Dak Prescott back, this becomes one of the better offenses in the NFL again. Tony Pollard is a big play running back too. This one should be tight all the way and overtime is a possibility as well. Being played in the dome the conditions are ripe for scoring. Take the over. |
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11-20-22 | Bears v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 68 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Chicago Bears have become a great over team of late. The Bears have scored 29 points or more in four straight games. They have also allowed 119 points in those four games. That is 29.75 points per game allowed. This isn't the Chicago Bears from a few years ago. The Bears had previously been one of the better defenses in the NFL and one of the worst offenses in the NFL. That no longer is the case. The Bears defense is much weaker now. They traded away top talent and some of the other guys are past their prime. The Bears coaching staff has found a way to game plan to Justin Fields' strengths and that has made a huge difference. Fields is looking like a dangerous weapon especially with his legs. Atlanta's defense is second worst in the NFL in yards per play. A.J. Terrell might be back for this one, but even he hasn't been good this year. The Falcons secondary is still very shorthanded. On offense, the Atlanta running attack is likely to work better against the Bears than it has against recent opponents. This one being played on a fast track in a dome is helpful for points too. Take the over. |
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11-20-22 | Jets v. Patriots UNDER 38.5 | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast for this game has gotten increasingly bad. The sustained winds now are expected to be at about 20 mph in this game. The wind gusts are expected to reach 35-40 mph. The Patriots have an argument for the best defense in the NFL. New England doesn't give up big plays, and I trust them to slow down the Jets offense especially now that Breece Hall is injured. Wilson is one of the worst QB's in the NFL right now. The Jets defense has been sneaky good this year. This is a tough group that doesn't let opponents get anything easily. The run defense is very underrated. The play calling here should get even more run heavy with this kind of weather. I expect a lot of moving clock. Take the under. |
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11-19-22 | Cincinnati v. Temple +17 | 23-3 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Temple* The Cincinnati Bearcats are a good team and I really like Luke Fickell as a coach. Cincinnati isn't the dominant team they were last year. The Bearcats have played well in the American Athletic Conference this year, but all six of their games have been decided by 10 points or less. That includes just a 4 point win over USF and a 10 point win over Navy. Ben Bryant has been inconsistent at quarterback. He hasn't been accurate at all on deep passes. The Temple Owls offense has come alive in the last couple games. E.J. Warner (Kurt Warner's son) is their new quarterback, and he has given this offense a boost. He has 5 TD's and no picks in his last two games. He has thrown for more than 800 yards in the last two games. Temple hasn't punted in their last two games. Cincinnati is the better team and they should win here, but with a total of only 51 I don't see Cincinnati being a 17 point favorite against a Temple team that has gotten a spark of late and continues to play hard. Take Temple. |
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11-19-22 | Georgia v. Kentucky UNDER 48.5 | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 25 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats offense is really weak this year. The offensive line has been a major problem. Kentucky has allowed 39 sacks despite having far fewer plays than most teams in the country because of their slow pace. The Wildcats are averaging only 3.29 ypc on the year. They are up against the best run defense in the SEC here. Kentucky is 131st (slowest in the country) in tempo this year. The Wildcats are trying to run the ball and win with defense. Georgia is 108th in tempo, so the Bulldogs are fine with a slower paced game as well. Georgia's offense is very good, but the Bulldogs have shown to be willing to slow the game down and be conservative with a lead. I expect them to be playing from ahead by a solid margin here. I think Georgia slows things down even more and runs the football a lot in the second half. The weather here is a bit of a help for the under too. Sustained winds of 15 mph and gusts to 24 mph are in the forecast during this game. Take the under. |
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11-19-22 | Illinois v. Michigan UNDER 44 | 17-19 | Win | 100 | 131 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Illinois Fighting Illini will square off in Ann Arbor on Saturday afternoon. Illinois star running back Chase Brown suffered a fairly major injury late in their loss to Purdue. Brown is the leading rusher in the nation so far this year, and to say an injury to him hurts the Illini is a big understatement. There isn't really an update on his status yet, but I would be surprised if he plays. If he does play here, Brown will be less than 100% and he will be up against an elite rushing defense. Michigan is 126th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Wolverines are an excellent team, but they are content to run the football and slowly move the ball down the field. Michigan ranks 127th in explosiveness on offense in the country. The Illinois defense is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Michigan's defense is second in the nation in YPC allowed. The Wolverines defense is getting better as the season goes along. In Big Ten play, they are allowing only 2.33 ypc. The early forecast for this one calls for 20 mph sustained winds with a temperature in the 20's. That could make these teams even more conservative with the play calling. Take the under. *As the weather conditions have become more clear that wind will be fairly significant the under has taken money. I would bet this for 4 stars down to 42 and a 3 star rating down to 40. Thank you* |
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11-13-22 | Cardinals v. Rams UNDER 40 | 27-17 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Matt Stafford is likely to be out with a concussion here. It was said that it will take a stunning turn for him to start in this one. John Wolford would get the start. The Rams offense gets ultra conservative with Wolford at quarterback. With Stafford in the lineup, the Rams are dead last in yards per play in the NFL. Wolford isn't an upgrade. Kyler Murray is considered doubtful by many here. He might play, but he is less than 100%- and he would likely take quite a few shots from this strong Rams defensive line if he plays. Colt McCoy is a solid backup, but the Cardinals do have a different and slightly more conservative game plan with him in the lineup too. The Cardinals defense has given up some big plays this year, but the Rams aren't the team to expose that right now. The Rams are a top 10 defense and their defensive line should get in the backfield here. Take the under. |
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11-13-22 | Saints v. Steelers +1 | 10-20 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers have won five straight games coming out of a bye week. They had a bye week and got healthier for this game. TJ Watt is back in the lineup, and that completely changes their defense. The Saints offensive line is weaker than an average lineup, and Dalton hasn't been good under pressure. Mike Tomlin has been fantastic as an underdog in his career. He is 9-0 ATS in his last 9 games as a home underdog. The Steelers come in off extra rest and I think this is a good spot to buy low on them. The Steelers are 39-16-1 ATS as an underdog from week five onward under Tomlin New Orleans has had turnover problems with Dalton in recent games. The Saints are also badly banged up right now. They are without Marson Lattimore (their best corner), Pete Werner, and two starting offensive linemen in this one. Take Pittsburgh. |
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11-13-22 | Lions v. Bears OVER 48.5 | 31-30 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Don't look now, but the Chicago Bears offense has been absolutely on fire of late. Chicago has put up 33, 29, and 32 points in their last three games. The Bears are starting to utilize Justin Fields in a much better way. Fields has amazing ability to keep plays alive and use his legs to create. The Bears traded away their best defensive player, and they have been banged up on defense with the guys who are left also. In their last two games they have given 49 and 35 points. The Lions aren't likely to score that many, but I think Detroit will get plenty of yards and points here. The Lions defense is a bottom three defense in the NFL. Detroit even allowed nearly 400 yards against the Packers offense last week. Green Bay struggled badly in the red zone, and Rodgers had some bad turnovers. Jared Goff has enough weapons around him now with Swift, Williams, and St. Brown being back on the field. Look for them to be able to pick up some chunk plays on this Bears defense. Both teams are playing at a faster than league average pace. Take the over. |
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11-12-22 | Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 64.5 | 30-24 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Alabama run defense has been much weaker in recent weeks. Alabama has shown some weakness especially against mobile quarterbacks and run games that use tempo. Jaxson Dart is mobile enough to do some damage, and we know Ole Miss plays quickly. Ole Miss is third in the nation in tempo this year. They are playing faster than Tennessee. The Rebels have two star running backs in Judkins and Evans. I think both of them can have some success here. Dart is inconsistent at quarterback, but he has an average depth of target of about 11 yards so he takes a lot of shots down the field. Dart is capable of hitting some big gainers against this Alabama secondary that has been prone to giving up the long ball. The Alabama offense should be able to move the ball all over this weak Ole Miss defense. Early in the year they looked much improved, but this defense has completely fallen apart against any kind of decent competition. Look at their recent performances against Vanderbilt, Auburn, LSU, and Texas A&M for examples. They gave up 500 yards to LSU. They allowed 34 points against a very questionable Auburn offense. They let a terrible A&M offense score 28 points and roll up 480 yards. Bryce Young should have a huge day here. Take the over. |
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11-12-22 | Appalachian State v. Marshall UNDER 48 | 21-28 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a great under team. Marshall's defense ranks first in the entire country in success rate allowed. This is a really good group of defenders that has no clear weakness. Marshall is second in havoc created by the front seven. The Thundering Herd are allowing only 2.57 ypc on the season. Appalachian State prefers to run the ball. The Mountaineers have good running backs, but I think they will have more trouble running it in this game against this great front seven. App State has run the ball on 55.4% of their plays overall this year. Marshall's offense is a hot mess. Cam Fancher doesn't look downfield much at all. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 63% of their plays in Sun Belt action. Though the Marshall run game is decent, opponents are now game planning for the run and loading up the box since Marshall isn't stretching the field. Marshall has played six straight games that have finished with a total of 37 points or fewer. Take the under. |
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11-12-22 | Purdue v. Illinois UNDER 45.5 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini haven't played a game that went over 44 total points all year. They probably will at some point, but I think this will be another low scoring contest. Purdue has had much lower scoring games on the road under Jeff Brohm than they have when playing at Ross Ade Stadium. The Boilermakers rely heavily on the passing game, and Illinois is first in the nation in opposing QBR allowed. Illinois wants to run the football and use up the clock. The Fighting Illini should be able to dictate a slow pace in this one as well. Early forecasts call for winds of 15-20 mph in this game. Take the under. |
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11-12-22 | Vanderbilt v. Kentucky UNDER 49.5 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 93 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I had been leaning strongly toward an under in this game to begin with, but now the news of AJ Swann being out for Vanderbilt has pushed me to bet the under in this one. Vanderbilt's offense was helped a lot by Swann's play making ability. Kentucky's defense has been fantastic all year. The Wildcats are 9th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. In SEC play, only game for Kentucky has gone over this total and that was their loss to Tennessee. It only finished at a total of 50 points. The rest of the games have finished with: 42 points, 41 points, 38 points, 44 points, and 38 points. The Kentucky offense plays at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Look for them to run the football a lot here and use up the clock. The weather could be a bit of a factor here as well. Winds of 15 mph with gusts to 22 mph are in the early forecast. Take the under. |
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