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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-27-20 | Bengals v. Eagles OVER 46 | 23-23 | Push | 0 | 73 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals defense has one sack so far this year. Without Carson Wentz being pressured constantly, I think this Eagles offense can get going here. Cleveland moved the ball at will against Cincinnati last week. Cincinnati's offense will be clearly improved this year. Joe Burrow has looked very good in his first two games. Remember, he didn't get any preseason, and he has still played very well as a rookie in his first two games. The Bengals should be able to take advantage of the Eagles very weak linebackers. Burrow likes to use his tight ends in the passing game, and that should help here. The Eagles should have the lead here (they are a clear favorite), and the Bengals have played extremely fast when trailing so far this year. The Bengals have shown they have backdoor potential and can move the ball quickly late in the game. This one sits below the key numbers of 47 and 48. With no bad weather in the forecast, I like this one to get past the posted total. Take the over. |
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09-26-20 | Tennessee v. South Carolina UNDER 48 | 31-27 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Volunteers should lean on the run game a lot this year. The strength of their entire team is the offensive line. They played slowly a year ago, and I expect them to play slowly again this season. Tennessee's defense didn't give up big plays last year. They were 3rd in the nation in fewest 20 yards or more plays allowed. With the secondary as a major strength I see that being the case again this year. South Carolina brought in Mike Bobo to be the new offensive coordinator. He has talked extensively about the team huddling up this year and slowing the tempo down a lot compared to what it was in recent seasons. Collin Hill won the starting job and I'm not high on him at quarterback. There isn't enough talent on this South Carolina offense. Marshawn Lloyd was going to be the star of the show here at RB, but he is out for the year with an injury. Look for a slow pace and a lot of moving clock in this game. |
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09-26-20 | Duke v. Virginia UNDER 46.5 | 20-38 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Duke Blue Devils offense hasn't been able to get going in the first two weeks. Struggling on offense against Notre Dame was to be expected, but averaging less than 5 yards per play against a questionable Boston College defense last week is a cause for concern. Virginia lost star Bryce Perkins, and their offense will look totally different. Virginia threw it on more than 54% of their plays last year, and I would expect a lot more running this season. They are likely to play slowly and try to keep the clock moving. Duke's secondary is injured badly, but the Blue Devils have great pass rushers. Virginia doesn't have the passer or receivers to make Duke pay through the air. The Virginia defense is strong led by a great group of linebackers. The Duke offensive front is likely to struggle with the front seven of the Cavs. Look for a tight low scoring game. Take the under. |
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09-26-20 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State UNDER 54 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 120 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Spencer Sanders' injury hurts the Oklahoma State offense in a big way. Their backups are extremely weak as we saw on Saturday against Tulsa. The Cowboys were outgained by Tulsa, and their offensive line play was poor. Sanders is very questionable for this game (he's in a boot right now), and even if he plays he will be far less than 100%. The Mountaineers defensive line is the strength of their team. They should be able to slow down strong running attacks this year. Last year when these two teams met the final was 20-13. West Virginia's defense is better than it was a year ago. Oklahoma State returned 10 guys on defense, and they looked great in the season opener (though it was against Tulsa). With the uncertainty around Sanders, I believe this line is several points too high. Take the under. |
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09-26-20 | Iowa State v. TCU UNDER 44 | 37-34 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs offense isn't likely to be good this year. They have serious questions at the quarterback spot. Matthew Downing has been named the TCU starter at quarterback. Max Duggan has been cleared to play and might play some (he was diagnosed with a heart condition in the offseason). The Horned Frogs offensive line will have trouble with strong defensive fronts this year. Iowa State's offense is Brock Purdy and a bunch of question marks. Purdy is a solid quarterback, but the line in front of him and skill position talent around him isn't nearly as good as it was a year or two ago. TCU's defense looks much stronger on the defensive front this year, and Gary Patterson's teams are always good in the secondary. Iowa State's defense should get in the TCU backfield quite a bit here. In my opinion, these are the top two defenses in the Big 12. Take the under here. |
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09-26-20 | Florida International v. Liberty -6.5 | 34-36 | Loss | -115 | 132 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Liberty* The Liberty Flames found their quarterback. Malik Willis transferred over from Auburn, and Willis showed how special he can be in this offense in game one. Hugh Freeze wanted a dual threat quarterback, and he has one now. Willis is a great athlete. He ran a 4.6 40 in high school. He ran for a whopping 168 yards on just 21 carries against a good Western Kentucky defensive front last weekend. That was Willis' first game in this system, and it looks like this is a perfect fit for the spread attack. Liberty rolled up 487 yards against Western Kentucky, and they only punted twice in the game. Florida International has a glaring weakness on their defense. They can't stop the run. FIU's defensive front will struggle against running attacks all year. FIU hasn't played a game yet, and now they go to take on a very complicated scheme that had 354 yards rushing last week. FIU lost James Morgan from a year ago, and there are plenty of questions about this team coming into the season. Their special teams are also down a lot after losing their star kicker to Miami. Liberty is laying a reasonable number here at home against a foe that will play their first game on Saturday. FIU has missed a bunch of practices due to COVID as well. I think Liberty runs all over them here. Take Liberty. |
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09-26-20 | Kentucky +7.5 v. Auburn | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Kentucky Wildcats are really strong in the trenches. They return a ton of depth and talent on both the offensive and defensive lines. Justin Rogers was a rare 5 star recruit on the defensive front for Kentucky too. He'll be a great addition to the defensive front. I'm most impressed by the depth in the trenches for Kentucky. They have the least turnover and best depth in the trenches of any team in the SEC East. Auburn lost Brown and Davidson on the defensive line, and those are big hits. The Tigers still have good players on defense, but it will be hard to not dip at least some. On the other side of the ball, Auburn has 5 new offensive linemen, and this is a clear weakness for the Tigers. Kentucky should be able to take advantage of this. Auburn has good WR's, but the Kentucky secondary is loaded this season. The Kentucky Wildcats will run the ball and look to shorten the clock. That makes a lot of their games lower scoring and tight games. Grabbing more than a touchdown with the much more experienced team that is stronger in the trenches is something I like to do whenever I can. Auburn has dealt with a lot more COVID problems than Kentucky, and the Tigers have missed a lot of practices. Take Kentucky plus the points here. I'll also put a small sprinkle on the moneyline. |
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09-26-20 | Georgia Tech v. Syracuse UNDER 52.5 | 20-37 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Syracuse Orange offense is dreadful. Syracuse is averaging less than 3 yards per play through their first two games. Pitt is a great defense so we can give them a partial pass for that, but North Carolina's defense isn't tremendous. Still, averaging 2.85 yards per play and having allowed 14 sacks in two games is just brutal. Neither of Syracuse's quarterbacks are the answer. The offensive line might be the worst in the country. Georgia Tech's defense is improving under Collins, who is a defensive-minded head coach. The Yellow Jackets allowed a bunch of points last week against UCF, but UCF is going to score in bunches against nearly everyone. Look for Georgia Tech's defense to look strong again in this one. The Syracuse defense has impressed me so far this year. They are running a new 3-3-5 defense, and it is hard prepare for. The Orange have confused opposing offenses. Georgia Tech has some improved skill position talent, but they are still young and I think the 3-3-5 can at least slow them down. Syracuse isn't going to just methodically move the ball up and down the field on anyone in their current state. If they don't hit big home run long touchdown, they aren't scoring. Look for the defenses to hold the upper hand in this game. Take the under. |
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09-24-20 | Dolphins v. Jaguars OVER 47.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins pass defense has struggled badly through their first two weeks. Buffalo threw for more than 400 yards on them a week ago. Byron Jones is doubtful for this game, and he is clearly a very talented member of the Dolphins secondary. Jacksonville's pass offense has been surprisingly effective through the first couple weeks of the season. The Jaguars moved the ball at will against the Titans on Sunday. Gardner Minshew continues to exceed expectations week after week at the quarterback spot. He has a couple nice new weapons this year in Shenault and Eiffert. I think Jacksonville moves it through the air easily in this game. Ryan Fitzpatrick is a good over quarterback. He can make the big play downfield, and he can also throw the pick sixes at any time. The Dolphins still have a bunch of speed on the outside, and the Jaguars secondary is a weakness. The offenses have had the edge in the early going in the NFL. Without the fan noise and with the rules set to help offenses as much as possible, I think many of these lower totaled games with two questionable defenses are good over looks. Take the over here. |
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09-21-20 | Saints v. Raiders UNDER 49 | 24-34 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Las Vegas Raiders open up their new stadium, but they'll do it without fans. This is still a huge game for the franchise. New Orleans is coming off a nice win over the Tampa Bay Bucs in week one. The Saints offense was actually a disappointment though. The Saints only averaged 4.1 yards per play. Michael Thomas is expected to miss this game as well, and he is arguably the best wide receiver in the NFL. This limits Drew Brees even further. The Saints don't play quickly, and they don't look to throw it downfield. They are looking for short passes and methodically moving the football. The New Orleans defense is underrated. This is a very good unit. The secondary is excellent and very deep. The Raiders are unlikely to be testing the Saints downfield. I think it is far more likely that the Raiders look to run the football early and often here with Jacobs. Derek Carr doesn't put up huge yardage through the air normally, and the Saints having a defensive coordinator who was previously Carr's coach is helpful to the defense as well. Take the under here. |
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09-20-20 | Panthers v. Bucs -9 | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 83 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Tampa Bay Bucs lost 34-23 to the New Orleans Saints in week one. While many people were quick to talk about how disappointing Tampa Bay was in that first game, we should take a closer look at that contest and the box score. New Orleans is arguably the best team in the NFC. That was a really tough first game for the Bucs. Tampa Bay outgained New Orleans 310-271. The Bucs averaged 4.8 yards per play, while they held the Saints to only 4.1 yards per play. They were -3 in turnover margin. Tampa Bay's defense looked terrific in week one. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator, and this Bucs defense will improve a lot this season. Tampa Bay's run defense finished first in DVOA last year. They did a great job slowing down Christian McCaffrey in each of their meetings last season. They should do a good job again here. Carolina got almost no pressure on Derek Carr in their loss to the Raiders in week one. I don't think they put much pressure on Brady here either. Carolina's pass rush is one of the weakest in the NFL, and their secondary is extremely banged up. This sets up as a perfect spot for Brady and the Bucs offense to get on track against. Tampa Bay's loss in week one was at least somewhat misleading. Look for them to put up a nice performance here. Take Tampa Bay. |
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09-20-20 | 49ers v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Francisco 49ers want to run the football early and often, especially with their injury issues right now. Deebo Samuel is out this week. George Kittle is banged up and is questionable here. Kittle might play, but he'll be less than 100 percent. The New York Jets really only do one thing well, and that is stop the run. The front seven has several good run stuffers. The Jets secondary is a weakness and the pass rush isn't very good, but the 49ers likely aren't the team to expose the pass defense weakness in their current form. The Arizona Cardinals moved the ball quite a bit on the 49ers defense last week, but the Jets offense shows no resemblance of the Cardinals offense. The Jets running game is very weak, and Sam Darnold doesn't have enough weapons on the outside either. The 49ers elite pass rush should give Darnold quite a bit of trouble throughout this contest. Look for this game to be played conservatively as the clock keeps ticking away. Take the under. |
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09-20-20 | Rams v. Eagles -1 | 37-19 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Philadelphia Eagles looked bad in week one. They aren't that bad of a football team. The Eagles defense actually played great in week one. They held Washington to only 3.4 yards per play. Philadelphia's turnovers and missed 4th down conversions put the defense in a lot of bad spots. Philadelphia had all sorts of trouble with the Washington pass rush. The Rams defensive line has a star in Donald, but the guys around him are no better than average. Johnson is expected back on the line this week for the Eagles and that is huge. Peters is also expected back on the offensive line. The Eagles are much healthier than they were last weekend. The Rams played the Sunday night game against Dallas and were helped by several Dallas key mistakes. Los Angeles has a bit less time to prepare than the Eagles here, and they go east for a 1pm start. The Rams offensive line ranked 31st out of 32 in the NFL last season according to Pro Football Focus. The Eagles are extremely strong on the defensive front, and I expect them to give the Rams line a lot of trouble. Jared Goff goes up against a stronger defensive front this week. Goff has struggled on the road and when he doesn't have time to throw. This line is an overreaction to last week's results. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-20-20 | Falcons v. Cowboys OVER 53 | 39-40 | Win | 100 | 33 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys moved the ball just fine last week, but they didn't finish off drives. Atlanta put up a bunch of yards and quite a few points on Seattle last week, but their defense was torched by Seattle in the loss. Sean Lee was already out for Dallas, and then the Cowboys best defender and key linebacker Leighton Vander Esch went down with an injury last week. They can't afford to be without him thanks to a thin LB group, but he's out with an injury and he'll be missed badly. Atlanta has arguably the top wide receiver tandem in the NFL. The Cowboys secondary is mediocre at best this year. Look for Matt Ryan and the Falcons passing game to pick up big chunks here. Dallas is one of the best offenses in the NFL, and the Falcons have a bottom five defense in the league. The Cowboys have far too many weapons for Atlanta to slow them down in this one. Dak Prescott has all sorts of weapons around him, and I think they will get on track this week. Dallas' group of receivers is a top 3 group of WR's as well. This one is played on the fast track in Dallas, and both quarterbacks should look great against the opposing secondary. Take the over. |
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09-20-20 | Vikings v. Colts OVER 48.5 | 11-28 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Indianapolis Colts host the Minnesota Vikings on Sunday afternoon. Indianapolis' game last week against the Jaguars was misleading. The Colts never punted all game long. They put up more than 400 yards of offense. They had a couple key turnovers and were stopped on 4th down twice. Still, the Colts averaged an impressive 6.4 yards per play. The Minnesota Vikings defense has some major problems in the secondary. Aaron Rodgers was great last week, but those Packers receivers (who outside of Adams aren't all that good) were wide open throughout that game. Minnesota's defensive line is a major weakness without Danielle Hunter as well. The Colts offensive front is one of the best in the NFL, and they should give Phillip Rivers lots of time to throw here. They'll also open up plenty of holes for Taylor to run through. The Vikings run game is very good, and the Colts defensive line is questionable. I think the Vikings will break some big gainers in the run game. Also, I think it is likely the Colts will playing from ahead here, and that will make Minnesota get more aggressive in the passing game. We saw what could happen in a spot like that last week. The Vikings and Packers combined to score a whopping 38 points in the 4th quarter alone. This one is played indoors and that will help both Cousins and Rivers a lot here. Look for plenty of scoring. Take the over. |
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09-19-20 | Wake Forest -103 v. NC State | 42-45 | Loss | -103 | 24 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Wake Forest* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are a really well-coached team. Dave Clawson's team has had their practices and they played their first game last weekend against the best team on their schedule, Clemson. What's NC State been doing? They have had to cancel many of their practices due to COVID issues. They had to cancel their first game too. The Wolfpack haven't played a game yet, and there are a bunch of questions about their team. NC State took a huge step backward last year, especially on the offensive end. Wake Forest has question marks too, but they have a game under their belt and have the better coach here. NC State is trying to figure out a totally new offensive and defensive scheme. I'll go with the team with more experience in what is a very difficult spot for the Wolfpack. Take Wake Forest on the moneyline. |
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09-19-20 | Miami-FL v. Louisville -2.5 | 47-34 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Louisville* The Miami Hurricanes beat down the Louisville Cardinals 52-27 last season. That game is misleading though. Louisville actually outgained Miami in that one, but was -3 in turnover margin. Scott Satterfield is doing a great job with this Louisville program. They get College Gameday to come to Louisville and they will have 18,000 fans in the stands for this huge home game. Louisville has a very solid home field advantage. Manny Diaz got a big break with D'Eriq King transferring to Miami for this season. I think the jury is still out on Manny Diaz as a head coach. I give Satterfield the clear coaching edge in this game. The Miami offensive line allowed 51 sacks last year. King will be able to run and create plays, but the passing game of Miami still looked questionable at best last week. Cunningham, Atwell, and Hawkins form a trio of three great offensive stars for Louisville. This Miami isn't nearly as good as the Hurricane defenses in recent seasons. The defensive line is only ok (Rousseau opting out hurt them a lot) and the linebackers are weak. I don't think Miami can stop Louisville here. I'm going to lay the short price with the team with revenge on their minds and the more experienced team and better coach. Take Louisville. |
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09-19-20 | Syracuse +21.5 v. Pittsburgh | 10-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Syracuse* This is a game that is hard to bet in this direction, but power ratings wise and situational spot wise I think it is the right play. Syracuse isn't a good team. This isn't even really a play on Syracuse, rather it is a fade of Pitt as a big favorite. The Pittsburgh Panthers are 8-19 ATS in their last 27 as a home favorite. Their games against Syracuse in recent years have been very close. Is the Pitt defense going to give the Syracuse offensive line all kinds of trouble? Absolutely. Can Pitt score a bunch of points? I think the jury is out here. Kenny Pickett hasn't been a very good fit for this offense, and Pitt generally is content to just win in ACC play and not win by a margin. I realize Syracuse didn't look good against UNC (who is better than Pitt). Pitt also blew out Austin Peay (which means very little). I think this line is an overreaction to the first games of each team. I'll grab the points. Take Syracuse. |
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09-19-20 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State OVER 66 | 7-16 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I expect really big things from the Oklahoma State offense this year. The Cowboys were very good offensively last year, but I expect them to take the next step to being elite on offense this year as Spencer Sanders improves in his sophomore season at quarterback. Oklahoma State has who I believe is the best running back in the country in Hubbard. Oklahoma State also has a top 3 or 4 group of wide receivers. The Cowboys want to play fast and they should be able to get plays in large bunches against a Tulsa defense that is going to be very weak this season. Tulsa's defense hasn't been very good in recent seasons, but they lost their top three defenders from last year's team. Tulsa's secondary is a mess, and Oklahoma State should be able to take advantage. Tulsa's offense is improved this year. With Smith at quarterback, Phillip Montgomery can actually run the type of offense he's been wanting to run for the last few years. Their pace will be extremely quick. No bad weather is in the area, and with the tempo this will be played at I expect a very high scoring game. Take the over. |
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09-13-20 | Cowboys v. Rams OVER 51.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams still have more weapons on offense than many people realize. The wide receivers here are still very solid. Robert Woods, Cooper Kupp, and Van Jefferson should be very productive. Jared Goff has shown he can be a quality NFL quarterback when put in the right spots and when given time. Dallas has a middle of the road pass rush. The Cowboys are also without Jourdan Lewis (CB) for this game. The Rams should play with pace here, and I think they'll get some big gainers on a Dallas defense that has some holes in it. Dallas has an amazing trio of wide receivers that is going to give just about any secondary trouble this year. The Rams still have very good corners, but they aren't as strong at the safety spots this year. The Rams LB's are a major weakness this season, and Dallas should be able to expose this group of LB's both in the running game and the passing game. The last four times these two teams have met the game has gone over the total. Look for a 5th straight over. Take the over here. |
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09-13-20 | Cardinals +7 v. 49ers | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 50 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Arizona* Week one is a great time to take divisional underdogs in the NFL. Divisional underdogs are 38-16-1 ATS in their last 55 in week one in the NFL. Also, teams who won six games or less in the previous season and are underdogs on the road in week one are 49-23 ATS in their last 72 games. Arizona has upgraded some on defense, and the addition of Hopkins at wide receiver makes this team far more dangerous offensively. In year two of Kingsbury's offense with Murray at the helm, we should see a big jump in production. The 49ers are banged up to start the season. San Francisco will either be without Deebo Samuel or he'll be playing at far less than 100% here. The 49ers defense should regress a bit in the secondary. Sherman isn't getting any younger and the guys around him aren't quite as good. Arizona played San Francisco very tough last year, and the Cardinals are better than they were a season ago. Take Arizona. |
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09-13-20 | Packers v. Vikings UNDER 45 | 43-34 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers didn't get Aaron Rodgers weapons on the outside like he needed. Green Bay is going to have to lean on the running game even more heavily than they did a year ago. I look for the Packers to slow the pace of the game down and lean on their offensive front and the running backs quite a bit here. Minnesota will be among the most run-oriented offenses of anyone in the NFL. The Vikings have less weapons on the outside than they did a year ago, and they know Kirk Cousins can't just take over the game by himself. These two teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. Last year's games finished with 37 and 33 points total. These two teams know what the other one is going to do here, and that should help the defenses a lot. Bill Vinovich's crew will be doing this game and the under is 58-42 in Vinovich's 100 contests. Also, the under is a whopping 17-3 in the Vikings last 20 vs. a divisional opponent. Take the under. |
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09-13-20 | Jets v. Bills UNDER 40 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense wasn't good to start with, and Robby Anderson was a pretty big loss at wide receiver in the offseason. Without Ryan Kalil at center, they yet again look very weak on the offensive line. The Buffalo Bills have improved skill position talent on offense, but the offensive line still isn't very good. The Jets have a pretty good run stuffing defensive line, and I think they can hold their own in this matchup. The weather here should be a major factor. The weather report calls for a 95% chance of rain during this game with sustained winds of 17 mph and gusts to 26 mph. That kind of weather makes the play calling far more conservative. It will be harder for Buffalo to try to utilize their new weapons at wide receiver. The two contests between these two teams last year finished with 33 points and 19 points total. Take the under. |
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09-12-20 | Charlotte v. Appalachian State OVER 59.5 | 20-35 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have a veteran offense led by Zac Thomas at quarterback. They have a deep group of running backs and a good offensive line as well. I expect App State to be a balanced and very strong offense this year. Appalachian State lost all 3 linebackers from last year, and all three of them were stars. They return just 5 starters on defense. The Mountaineers won't be bad defensively, but they are a clear step down from a year ago. Charlotte returns a bunch of production on offense. Reynolds is a really underrated quarterback for this team. They have the offensive line to run on most teams. The 49ers have talked about playing a bit faster this year as well. The 49ers defense isn't good enough to consistently slow down App State. The 49ers lost their top defensive lineman from last year. These two teams met last year and the final score was 56-41 App State. Do I think we see something like that again? No I don't. However, they don't have to get even close to that high scoring to cash the over here. Rain is expected here, but without wind I don't see rain as a negative, especially with two teams with great running games. Take the over. |
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09-10-20 | Texans v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 20-34 | Push | 0 | 31 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs adds Clyde Edwards-Helaire, which is a scary thought for opposing defenses. He is a great pass catcher out of the backfield, and Patrick Mahomes now has another elite pass catching option. Kansas City put up 51 points on Houston in the playoffs last year in that wild come from behind win. Houston's defense is no better than last season, and it might even be weaker. Kansas City's secondary makes them vulnerable against good passing attacks. The secondary is already a relative weakness, but now they are without Bashaud Breeland. Breeland is a very solid player and a key loss for this defense. Houston will take some shots downfield, and I think they'll have some success there. The Texans are likely to be behind throughout which would make them more aggressive and play faster. The weather conditions are expected to be nice here with very little wind. Look for both quarterbacks to have a big game and this to be a fun high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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02-02-20 | 49ers v. Chiefs -1 | 20-31 | Win | 100 | 135 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs are the side I'll be backing in the Super Bowl. Patrick Mahomes is the best quarterback in the NFL. Andy Reid has gotten a bad rap from some, but this guy has been a tremendous coach for a long time. Reid has been money in the bank after a bye, and obviously the Super Bowl is played after a week off, so he has extra time to get his team ready for this game. While the Kansas City defense wasn't good earlier this year, they really improved as the year went along. The Chiefs have a quality secondary, and they have a strong pass rush as well. Jimmy G has been good enough for the 49ers this year, but he isn't a guy I trust in a big game. It has looked like Shanahan doesn't trust him a lot either. The 49ers have yet to play a great offense in the playoffs, but that ends here. The Chiefs offense has been the best in the NFL in the last few weeks after Mahomes got healthy. There have been a few teams who have exploited this 49ers defense at times this year (Saints, Falcons, and Rams in the 2nd meeting). The 49ers are certainly a quality team, but they are a young group. If the 49ers get behind by double digits here, they are likely to be out of this one. If the Chiefs get behind, we know they have the ability to come back from behind as they did in their first couple playoff games. Take Kansas City here. |
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01-19-20 | Titans v. Chiefs -7 | 24-35 | Win | 100 | 12 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kansas City* The Baltimore Ravens were 10 point home favorites over the Tennessee Titans last week. Baltimore lost that game 28-12. Still, the Ravens did outgain the Titans by 230 yards. Yes, I know they were playing from behind all the way, but the Ravens went 0/4 on 4th down there and they had the key turnovers. The Titans defense didn't look very good on the whole. Tennessee is a good team. The Titans are playing their third straight playoff game on the road. They were able to take advantage of a flawed Patriots team to win on the road in their first game. They were fortunate last week in that the Ravens really handed the game away with the turnovers and missed 4th down conversions. I rate Kansas City as the best team in the NFL. The Chiefs have a superstar at quarterback in Patrick Maholmes. When he has been healthy this year, KC hasn't lost a game. After Baltimore was laying 10 at home against the Titans the number has been adjusted down by 3 points for the Titans playing at Kansas City. I don't agree with that. Kansas City has a better home field advantage than does Baltimore. The Chiefs are at least on par with Baltimore as a team, and I would argue they are slightly better. Kansas City was one play from the Super Bowl last year. I expect Kansas City to come out ready to play in this one after a slow start last week. The Titans have an extremely weak secondary, and you better believe this Chiefs passing attack can exploit that. Ryan Tannehill has been good this year, but I don't trust him to keep up with the Chiefs offense if the Titans are playing from behind. Take Kansas City. |
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01-13-20 | Clemson +6.5 v. LSU | 25-42 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Clemson* The LSU Tigers are an excellent team. I don't have anything negative to say about Joe Burrow and the LSU offense. Burrow has been fantastic for this offense, and the change in scheme this year has made a world of difference for this team. LSU absolutely blasted Oklahoma in their semifinal game, and that definitely impressed everyone. Was it impressive? Absolutely. Should the line have adjusted this much? No. Before last game, oddsmakers had the look ahead line on this game at pick'em. I can't justify moving a line by nearly a touchdown from one game. Clemson didn't play their best against Ohio State, and they were fortunate to win. Still, Dabo Swinney's team was able to make it out of that game and they come into this one in the role they love- the underdog role. Swinney talks about his team being disrespected and the underdog very often, and this time they actually are. Swinney's teams are 10-1 ATS in his last 11 bowl games, and they are covering by two touchdowns on average. It hasn't been a fluke. Clemson is well prepared for big games. Trevor Lawrence hasn't thrown an interception since October. Lawrence hasn't lost a game he has started yet, and Clemson is relishing this underdog role where they play what is essentially a road game in New Orleans. Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in the country. Will LSU make Clemson's defense look bad at times on Monday night? Of course they will. Venables has been the best in the country at making adjustments though. Travis Etienne is an underrated running back for Clemson. He can really make people miss. I think he'll get a lot of touches in this game, and I see him having success. This should be a great game. Underdogs have been money in the bank in title games the last few years in college football. Fading the public is a great strategy in bowl season. Nearly 70% of the bets are on LSU here. I'll take the underdog and the points and expect a thriller. Take Clemson. |
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01-12-20 | Seahawks +4.5 v. Packers | 23-28 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Seattle* Both of these have been overrated throughout the season based on their yards per play differentials being very weak. I see this as a very even game. Russell Wilson has played the best of the two quarterbacks this season. Seattle's wide receivers have been making big plays late in the season. Green Bay's secondary has been a bit disappointing compared to expectations. The Seahawks play a ton of very close games. Getting 4.5 points in a game they are involved in means more than it would with anyone team. Seattle has made it a habit of covering on the road against good teams. Seattle is 22-8-2 ATS in their last 32 games on the road against a team with a winning record. They are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 as a road underdog. Neither of these teams are great, but one of them will be in the NFC title game. This feels like a coin flip to me. I'll grab the points. Take Seattle. |
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01-11-20 | Titans v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 28-12 | Win | 100 | 77 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense was good late in the season. Ryan Tannehill is clearly an upgrade from Marcus Mariota. Still, the Titans offense didn't face many good defenses during that time. How did Tannehill and the Titans look offensively last week? They played a great defense in the Patriots, but Tannehill didn't look good. He was only 8/15 for 72 yards passing and 1 TD and 1 INT. Derrick Henry got 34 carries in that game. Overall, the Titans had 40 rushing plays compared to only 16 passing plays. Is that a look at what they want to do in this game too? Yes, I would think the Titans want to play keep away and move slowly and run the ball to try to keep it away from the Ravens offense. Baltimore is clearly elite on offense, but the Ravens do run the ball at a good clip too. There is likely to be a lot of ticking clock here. The Titans are a pretty good run defense. Baltimore will get their yards, but the Titans are more likely to keep them from explosive plays than most defenses would be. The weather here calls for 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. Rain is likely at least part of the time on Saturday night as well. This kind of weather would be helpful to the under. A game that would likely have conservative play calling would get even more conservative. Take the under. |
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01-05-20 | Vikings v. Saints OVER 49 | 26-20 | Loss | -115 | 45 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints offense played very well down the stretch. After their 26-9 strange loss to the Falcons, the Saints have averaged 34.2 points per game on offense. Minnesota is often thought of as a strong defensive team. That was the case a couple years ago, but that isn't the case any more. The Vikings have major problems in the secondary. This is a bottom six or eight secondary in the NFL overall. The Saints passing game is consistently good enough that I would expect them to expose the Vikings weaknesses here. Dalvin Cook will be back for the Vikings offense, and that makes a massive difference. The Vikings have been very explosive in the running game, and Cook makes the passing game much better as well. Kirk Cousins has a lot of weapons around him. The Saints are banged up defensively, and I think that hurts them in this game. The over has done well in playoff games in domes. In fact, the over is 29-13 in the last 42 playoff games played in a dome. I think both offenses have the upper hand here. Take the over. |
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01-03-20 | Ohio v. Nevada OVER 58.5 | 30-21 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats played in 7 games this year that reached at least 61 points. Ohio is a big play offense, and the Bobcats defense is no longer the strength it was a few years ago. Ohio is 87th in yards per play allowed this year, and that was playing an extremely easy schedule. The MAC has many very bad offensive teams. Nevada has gotten a bit healthier in the last few weeks. Their offense should be able to break some big plays against Ohio. The Wolf Pack passing attack improved in the last couple weeks with Carson Strong airing it out quite a bit. Ohio has a star quarterback in Nathan Rourke. The Bobcats averaged 6.7 yards per play (11th in the nation) this year. It would be pretty surprising if Nevada can do much of anything to slow down Ohio's offense. Nevada is 106th in opponent QBR and Rourke should make this Nevada secondary look bad. The weather looks good for this one and this fits a system of two teams with less than 65% wins straight up going 59% over the posted total in the last 15 years in bowl season. Take the over. |
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01-01-20 | Minnesota v. Auburn -7 | 31-24 | Loss | -101 | 20 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Auburn* The Auburn Tigers have far better athletes than the Minnesota Golden Gophers. A look at recruiting rankings in the past four years will tell you that Auburn has top ten talent and Minnesota is clearly out of the top 25. Recruiting talent certainly isn't everything, but it is a nice start. Auburn was ready for the Big Ten West opponent last year when they absolutely blasted Purdue 63-14. The game wasn't that close. Auburn led 56-7 at halftime. Minnesota is a good team and I like PJ Fleck and what he is doing with this program, but this is a big step up in class. The Golden Gophers allowed 30 sacks playing against quite a few weak defensive lines this year. Auburn is a top 3 or 4 defensive line in the country. The Tigers should be in the backfield a lot in this game. Minnesota struggled badly on special teams this year, and this is the type of game where that could hurt them quite a bit. Auburn has played the much tougher schedule here, and they will have a clear home field advantage as well. If the Tigers are up for this game, they should win and cover. I think they are too much for the Gophers. Take Auburn. |
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01-01-20 | Michigan v. Alabama OVER 58 | 16-35 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Michigan Wolverines offense got quite a bit better late in the season. During the Penn State game it seemed something finally clicked for Shea Patterson and this group. The new faster paced offense is better than their previous pro style slow paced offense. The Alabama defense isn't what it has been in previous seasons. The Crimson Tide allowed 48 points against Auburn. They also allowed 23 to South Carolina and 31 to Ole Miss. Alabama's offense might be without Tua, but they still have all kinds of playmakers. The Alabama wide receivers will be the best group of receivers Michigan has seen all year. The Crimson Tide excel in getting big plays. While the Michigan defense is good, they were moved on easily by the best teams they played this year. Wisconsin rolled to 35 points and Ohio State racked up 56 points. Conditions look good here so weather shouldn't be a factor. Look for both teams to get to the end zone pretty often in this contest. Take the over. |
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12-31-19 | Georgia State v. Wyoming -7 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Wyoming* The Wyoming Cowboys run the football early and often. They are going to try their best to run the ball as much as possible in this one. They should find a lot of success. Georgia State ranks 120th in yards per carry allowed at 5.32 yards per carry. Wyoming has a new quarterback in Levi Williams, and they will likely try to make it easier on him and run the ball on 70% or more of their plays here. That should be a formula for success against Georgia State. Georgia State couldn't stop teams in the Sun Belt, and most of those teams don't have an offensive line as strong as Wyoming. Craig Bohl has had success everywhere he has been, and his team are strongest in the trenches. Bohl is 2-0 ATS in bowl games and his teams dominated in the playoffs at the FCS level. Georgia State's star quarterback Dan Ellington is playing with a torn ACL. Ellington was a superb runner, but now he is limited to just throwing the football. Wyoming's defense is too good to take away a main threat like that and expect to move the ball on them consistently. Wyoming is much better on special teams than Georgia State as well. Levi Williams was a good player in high school and he has the tools to be good at Wyoming. The Cowboys are much closer to home as well in this bowl game. Lay the points here. Take Wyoming. |
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12-31-19 | Kansas State v. Navy UNDER 53.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 21 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen take on the Kansas State Wildcats in the Liberty bowl on Tuesday. Navy looked great in their final regular season game against Army. This Midshipmen team is much improved in every way compared to a year ago. What is most improved? The Navy defense. Navy ranks 14th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. They drastically cut down on the explosive plays they gave up. Kansas State's Chris Klieman saw the triple option a lot in his time in FCS football with North Dakota State. I would expect his coaching staff to do a good preparing his defense for the tough task of slowing down Navy. Navy will get their yards, but I don't think it will come all that easily. Kansas State had only 48 plays of 20 yards or more (104th in the nation). That was playing against a bunch of bad defenses in the Big 12. The Wildcats are not a big play offense. Kansas State ranks 127th in pace of play and Navy ranks 117th. Navy runs the ball 88% of the time on offense and Kansas State runs it on 64% of their plays. A lot of moving clock here. Take the under. |
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12-31-19 | Kentucky v. Virginia Tech UNDER 47 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 25 m | Show | |
12-29-19 | Steelers v. Ravens +2 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 24 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Ravens* John Harbaugh has made it no secret that he wants to win football games, even when they don't mean anything. How has Baltimore done in the preseason? The Ravens have won an amazing 17 straight games in the preseason. Maybe no one else cares then, but the Ravens certainly do. Harbaugh has said he believes winning football games can become habitual, and he wants to see his team win. Baltimore doesn't have to win this game, and they are wise to sit out key players like Jackson and Ingram here. Still, Baltimore has proven they are a really deep team. The Ravens have a good backup in RG3 and he is playing behind a strong offensive line. Pittsburgh has an outside chance at the playoffs still. The Steelers will be playing hard. They are on third string quarterback Duck Hodges though, and that is a major problem. It's also a big problem that they are without Pouncey on the offensive line and Conner in the backfield. The Ravens defense isn't great at stopping the run, but the Steelers aren't very good at running it right now. Pittsburgh controlled their own destiny before last week. They had to win at New York and they had to win this game. They lost to the Jets. The Steelers will want to win here, but I'm not sure they can. Baltimore would be glad to beat their rival and keep them out of the playoffs. Take Baltimore. |
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12-29-19 | Chargers v. Chiefs UNDER 46 | 21-31 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs defense is much better than most people realize. In the second half of the season, the Chiefs defense has put up some tremendous numbers. Kansas City's secondary is now one of the best in the NFL. I don't see the Chargers having the running game to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs either. The Chargers are without their top two offensive linemen, and that has hurt them a lot down the stretch. Phillip Rivers has become a liability for the Chargers. I expect him to struggle against this strong KC pass rush and strong Chiefs secondary. Kansas City's offense actually ranks among the five slowest in the NFL in the last half of the season in pace of play. The Chiefs have slowed down their tempo drastically. Kansas City is still very good offensively, but the Chargers defense has been good at limiting big plays. The Chiefs as home favorites under Andy Reid have been great to under bettors. In fact, when Kansas City is a favorite of 8.5 points or more at home the under is 24-6-2 in the last 32 contests. The Chiefs are likely to have the lead here, and I could see them sitting on this game late. The weather is a question mark here too. Winds of 12 mph with gusts to 20 mph are forecast for this game. That is clearly a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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12-28-19 | Memphis v. Penn State UNDER 60.5 | 39-53 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers offense is explosive. No one can deny that the Tigers have big play ability at all times. Memphis isn't accustomed to playing a defense as good as Penn State though. The Tigers played the 71st toughest strength of schedule according to Sagarin. The best defense they went up against this year was Temple. Penn State will now clearly be the best defense Memphis has gone up against. Penn State ranks 1st in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Memphis is accustomed to getting some big gainers on the ground, and I don't think they'll get many of them here. Brady White is a good quarterback, but he hasn't been great against the best defenses he has faced in his career. The Penn State offense ranks only 58th in yards per play so far this year. They have been very inconsistent this year. Memphis' defense isn't a major strength by any means, but they aren't the weakness they were in past seasons. The Tigers are 36th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Both of these teams play at about an average pace. This is a high total for a game involving an excellent defense and two teams who play at an average pace. Take the under here. |
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12-27-19 | Washington State v. Air Force -2.5 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Air Force* The Air Force Falcons should show up ready to play here. I don't know if I can say the same about Washington State. Mike Leach's teams are 1-7-1 ATS in his last 9 bowl games. Many of those ATS losses weren't close either. Anthony Gordon has been good in this Washington State offense, but he has made quite a few mistake. Don't be surprised if Air Force comes up with a couple key forced turnovers here. Washington State ranks 104th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Washington State's defense took a large step back this year. The Cougars allowed a whopping 72 plays of 20 yards or more (117th in the country). While many wouldn't think of Air Force this way, the Falcons are a solid big play offense. Air Force picked up 28 plays of 30 yards or more this year (54th best in the country). For a team that runs it so often, that is an impressive number. Hammond is a great signal caller for this offense, and Washington State has never faced the triple option under Leach. The Cougars defensive coordinator resigned in the middle of the season and the co interim DC's aren't likely to solve the triple option with the front seven they have. Leach has proven to be poor at getting his teams ready for big games. I don't think Washington State can stop Air Force, and I think Air Force will come up with enough stops/turnovers to lead to a win. Take Air Force. |
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12-27-19 | USC v. Iowa OVER 51.5 | 24-49 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Iowa Hawkeyes have been a team I've backed many times for unders in recent years, but I'll be on the over in this game. USC has been a very good over team, and I think this number is set a little low. Iowa plays in the Big Ten West. To say that there aren't good quarterbacks in the Big Ten West is an understatement. Truthfully, there aren't any good passing attacks. Iowa's seccondary is good, but they aren't as good as the numbers on the stat sheet will tell you. Let's take a look at some of the opponents they have faced. They faced Miami (Ohio), Rutgers, Purdue (without their QB and Rondale Moore), Northwestern (yikes), MTSU, Illinois, and Nebraska (Martinez isn't good). Even the good teams they played this year aren't that good through the air (Wisconsin and Michigan for example). Iowa actually gave up 400 plus yards 3 times (Iowa State, Wisconsin, and Minnesota). Their defense is good but not great. USC has three guys projected to be first round draft picks at wide receiver. Slovis is an excellent quarterback. Graham Harrell is an excellent offensive coordinator and I expect USC to be well prepared offensively. Iowa also isn't accustomed to facing defenses as weak as USC's defense. The Trojans are banged up in the secondary, and their run defense is really bad to start with. USC only allowed less than 20 points twice this year. The Trojans don't have the pass rush needed to make Iowa uncomfortable. The weather shouldn't play a role here in San Diego. The Hawkeyes have a good quarterback in Stanley and I think he makes some big plays here. Slovis and his wide receivers should connect on some big gainers. Iowa isn't likely to end up in a low scoring game like they would against most of their Big Ten West opponents. Take the over. |
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12-27-19 | Oklahoma State +7 v. Texas A&M | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 100 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Oklahoma State* The Oklahoma State Cowboys expect to have quarterback Spencer Sanders back for this game. It's likely he and Dru Brown will split time in this one. Sanders gives this team another dimension with his dual threat ability. Chuba Hubbard says he will play here. Initially, there were some questions about whether he would want to skip this bowl game. With Hubbard playing, Oklahoma State has a big edge running the football. The Cowboys are 14th in the nation in ypc and Texas A&M is just 55th in ypc allowed. Look for the Cowboys to have a lot of success on the ground. Texas A&M is severely shorthanded at running back. The Aggies are down to one scholarship player at running back (Spiller) after at least 5 guys in the backfield have either been injured/suspended or quit the team. I would expect Texas A&M to be pretty one dimensional here. The Oklahoma State pass defense isn't great, but it is better than their run defense. They also have 12 interceptions, and Kellen Mond has thrown some bad picks in big games this year. Mike Gundy is another reason for this play. Gundy has proven to be very good at getting his team ready for bowl games. Gundy's teams are 5-2 ATS in their lats 7 bowl games. They aren't just covering in those games either, they are covering by a wide margin. Of those five covers, four of them are by 14.5 points or more. Two of them are ATS covers by 30 points or more. Jimbo Fisher has a solid 5-3 ATS record in his teams last eight bowl games. Still, four of those five covers have been by single digits. Two of the non-covers were ATS losses by 21.5 points or more. I expect a close game and I'll grab the touchdown here. Take Oklahoma State. |
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12-22-19 | Steelers v. Jets +3.5 | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 22 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* The Pittsburgh Steelers offense is really weak right now. Yes, the Steelers have an excellent defense. Can the Steelers be laying this price on the road though against a team who has played well at home? I don't think so. Pittsburgh was fortunate to beat Arizona on the road (punt return TD) and the Steelers narrowly defeated the Bengals on the road as well. Sam Darnold has played well at home this year. The Jets defense has been tremendous at stopping the run. What will Pittsburgh do here? The Steelers will want to run the ball, but I'm not sure that they can. Hodges had an ugly game last week, and they likely don't trust him much at this point. There is clearly sharp involvement here on the Jets, and I will back the home team here as well. I think the Jets have a real chance of winning outright, but this is a very low totaled game so I'll grab the points and I'll sprinkle just a little on the moneyline as well. Take the New York Jets. |
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12-21-19 | SMU v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 69.5 | 28-52 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This game is being played in Boca Raton (at Florida Atlantic). The weather here should be factor. Winds of 20 mph with higher gusts are forecast for gametime here. I wouldn't typically want to play an under with these two teams, but with this high of a number and the weather factor- I'm taking the under. Both of these teams are more explosive through the air than on the ground. With high winds like this it should limit the downfield passing attacks some. I would expect to see some more running of the football than most would expect, and both rushing defenses are pretty strong. With more running plays the clock keeps moving which is clearly a plus for the under. There are numerous very strong systems for high wind unders with a high posted total. I'll go with the systems here. Take the under. |
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12-21-19 | Liberty v. Georgia Southern -4 | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Georgia Southern* The Liberty Flames played the 132nd toughest schedule in the country this year according to Sagarin. There are 130 FBS teams. Liberty actually played a weaker schedule than some FCS teams. Liberty has 7 wins this year, but only one of them was even a decent win. Liberty beat Buffalo and no one else of significance. They picked up two wins over lowly New Mexico State. They also beat a terrible New Mexico team. They beat UMass (poor UMass). They actually lost by 10 to Rutgers as a favorite. |
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12-21-19 | Central Michigan v. San Diego State UNDER 41 | 11-48 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs have been an under machine this year. Only one of their games has gone over the posted total. In fact, San Diego State's last four games have all finished with a total of 30 points or lower. San Diego State plays slowly on offense, and they are very inefficient. Juwan Washington is a good running back when he's healthy, but he is banged up now and is questionable for this game. San Diego State has very little passing game. Central Michigan had a good year offensively, but they were up against some extremely weak defenses in the MAC. Central Michigan scored only 12 points against Miami and 0 points against Wisconsin. Though this is certainly a low number, I think this game is likely to stay in the 30's. Take the under. |
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12-20-19 | Kent State v. Utah State OVER 65.5 | 51-41 | Win | 100 | 90 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies are second in the nation (out of 130 teams) in tempo. Kent State is 8th in the nation in tempo. Both teams have struggled at times this year with teams who look to slow the game down and bleed the clock while controlling the ball most of the game. That won't be an issue here. Both teams want to get snaps off as fast as they can, and there should be a bunch of possessions in this contest. Jordan Love has had a disappointing season. Love was terrific a year ago for Utah State. He is clearly a very talented quarterback, but the cast around him wasn't quite as good this year. They also played some solid pass defenses in the Mountain West. Adjusted for strength of schedule, Kent State's pass defense ranks 128th in the country this year. This is a great chance for Jordan Love to go out with a bang and put up a lot of yards against this Kent State defense. Crum has done a nice job for Kent State at quarterback. He doesn't make sensational plays too often, but he is efficient with the football. He has good receivers on the outside, and I think Kent State can get some big gainers in this game. Bowl games between two teams with middling records have been strong to the over in the past few seasons. Look for the extreme tempo to lead to quite a few points here. Take the over. |
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12-15-19 | Falcons +11 v. 49ers | 29-22 | Win | 100 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons have been playing hard of late. This defense has improved drastically in recent weeks. They have been strong against the run. San Francisco is a run heavy team, and I think that plays into the strength of this Atlanta defense. San Francisco is coming off a road trip where they lost by 3 to Baltimore in a hard fought game and then beat the Saints in an epic last second victory last weekend. San Francisco is batting Seattle for the division. They host the LA Rams next week in a big game. They then go to Seattle in their final game. Both of those games are games they should be more motivated in than in this spot. This is a sandwich spot where I would expect the 49ers to be happy to get out with a win and not look to get a margin. I'll grab the double digit points here. Take Atlanta. |
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12-15-19 | Texans v. Titans OVER 48 | 24-21 | Loss | -110 | 155 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has really improved drastically under Ryan Tannehill. I don't think anyone could have expected the Titans to get this much better with the quarterback change. Marcus Mariota just wasn't getting it done, and Tannehill has been much more aggressive. The fact that Tannehill is looking downfield more often and is keeping opposing defenses honest has made things easier on the Titans running game as well. The over is 7-0 in the 7 games Tannehill has started since the quarterback change. Only one of those games fell below this number. Houston played terribly in their loss to Denver. The Texans need to put it back together here. I do think Houston has the ability to take advantage of the Titans primary weakness on defense (their secondary). Tennessee hasn't been tested in the secondary many times of late, but they face a great quarterback and some excellent receivers here. Both of these teams are willing to take deep shots and both teams have question marks at the safety spots. I see both offenses having quite a bit of success here. Take the over. |
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12-15-19 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 45.5 | 3-23 | Win | 100 | 44 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos defense has played well in recent weeks. Denver seems like a team that wants to play hard to the end of the season. Fangio deserves some credit for keeping this team interested after a really poor start to the season. The Kansas City defense has played very well of late. They are still susceptible against the run, but this is a much improved secondary. Patrick Mahomes is clearly not 100% healthy now, and that has hurt the Chiefs ability to get big plays on offense. The Chiefs have a long history of playing unders when they are big favorites at home. When Kansas City is a home favorite of 6 points or more the under is 39-17 in their last 56 games. When the total is at least 44.5- the under is a whopping 22-5. The weather here looks helpful for the under. Winds of about 12 mph with snow are likely during this game. That should make both teams more cautious with their play calling. Take the under. |
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12-08-19 | Seahawks v. Rams -105 | 12-28 | Win | 100 | 51 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Rams ML* The Seattle Seahawks have been extremely fortunate this year. Seattle is 14th in the NFL in yards per play margin and yet they are somehow 10-2. Seattle is +10 in turnover margin which is likely to regress toward the mean. They also can't keep winning every single close game they play in. This game means more to the LA Rams than the Seahawks. Seattle would definitely benefit from winning as well since they are in a race with San Francisco, but the Rams need this win badly if they are to have any chance at making the playoffs. Jared Goff is a mediocre quarterback, but at home he has been much better. He faces a Seattle secondary that is far weaker than many realize. The Rams have plenty of good weapons on the outside, and I think he'll have a lot of open receivers here. The Rams should have won in Seattle earlier this year. They missed a FG right at the end of that game. Seattle is coming off an emotional win on Monday night. The Rams had some extra rest and time to prepare. I'll look for some regression from Seattle, and I'll back the Rams in a huge game for them. Take the Rams on the moneyline. |
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12-08-19 | Steelers v. Cardinals UNDER 43.5 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers have major injury issues on offense. Duck Hodges is now the starter at quarterback. He hasn't necessarily done anything wrong, but he is clearly a below average NFL starting quarterback. He doesn't have much help around him either. Smith-Schuster and Conner are both out for this game and that is a big hit to the Steelers offense. Pittsburgh's defense has carried them this year. The Steelers defense in its current state is a top five defense in the NFL. They have been able to force a ton of turnovers and they have a good red zone defense. Arizona's offense has been very up and down. The Cardinals have put up some big yardage numbers in the fourth quarter (garbage time) of some losses. Kyler Murray is coming off a really poor game and he is less than 100 percent healthy. The under is 23-4 in the Steelers last 27 road games where they are a favorite. They have played a lot of tight low scoring games. I think that happens again here. Take the under. |
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12-08-19 | Panthers v. Falcons UNDER 47.5 | 20-40 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons defense has played much better of late. Atlanta has allowed 347 yards or less in four of their last five games. Atlanta is giving up 368 yards per game for the season, but their defense has been trending quickly in the right direction. It's also important to point out that Atlanta has played the toughest slate of opposing offenses in the NFL so far this season. Some more positive regression to the mean is likely. The Atlanta offense has been disappointing. Matt Ryan appears to be playing at far less than 100 percent. The Falcons running game is inconsistent as well. Carolina's defense is stronger in the secondary. I'm not sure Atlanta can consistently take advantage of the Carolina weakness against the run. Carolina's offense has really tailed off in recent weeks. They are too dependent on McCaffrey. He is great, but they don't have enough around him. Opposing teams are scheming to stop him more and more, and the Panthers haven't been able to make them pay. Take the under here. |
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12-07-19 | Virginia v. Clemson OVER 55.5 | 17-62 | Win | 100 | 53 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Clemson Tigers are just way too good for everyone in the ACC. Clemson's offense didn't play up to expectations for a while this year, but they have been great in recent weeks. Dabo Swinney made it clear a few days ago that he believes the country doesn't respect them enough. Will Clemson want to prove a point in this game? It seems likely. Virginia's defense was really good early in the season, but if you look at the recent trends from this Cavs defense it is very concerning. Virginia gave up 25 first downs and 483 yards against a subpar Virginia Tech offense. Liberty threw for 313 yards against this Virginia secondary. Virginia gave up a whopping 28 points to a very weak Georgia Tech offense. The Cavs defense is not finishing the season strongly at all. Virginia is without star cornerback Bryce Hall and that has really hurt this unit. Clemson has scored 52 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The Tigers have rolled up 516 yards of offense or more in seven straight games. I think they'll put up a big number here. Virginia has scored 20 points or more in all but one game this year. The Cavs do have a good quarterback in Bryce Perkins. Perkins though can make some bad mistakes with the football or hold the ball too long at times. It could create big plays for either the Virginia offense on a big gainer or a pick six or strip six if he doesn't get rid of the ball quicker. The weather looks good for this game. I see this number as a little too low considering how consistent both of these teams have been at scoring. Take the over. |
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12-06-19 | Oregon v. Utah UNDER 51 | 37-15 | Loss | -109 | 103 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* This Pac 12 title game between Utah and Oregon will be played on Friday night in Santa Clara. Utah has a lot on the line here. If LSU beats Georgia, the Utes have a real chance to sneak into the playoffs this year. Utah would be well served to not only win, but be impressive in winning. The Oregon offense hasn't been good against quality defenses this year. Oregon has had long droughts against good defenses. The Ducks were only 4th best in the Pac 12 in yards per play on offense. Utah was easily first in the conference in yards per play allowed. In fact, Utah was 4th best out of 130 teams in the nation in yards per play allowed. Utah doesn't give up big plays. The Utes should do a great job keeping Oregon in front of them. The Utah offense relies on the running game. Utah runs the ball on nearly 66% of their offensive plays. Utah has also played at the single slowest pace of any team in the nation this year. They take a lot of time off the clock even when they do score. Oregon ranks 13th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Both of these teams are far stronger on defense than offense. The forecast in Santa Clara calls for rain all week. On Friday night, rain and some winds are in the forecast. Levi's Stadium has been good for unders to begin with, and this weather would help the under quite a bit. Take the under. |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks OVER 48.5 | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks secondary is a major weakness. Even without Thielen, the Vikings have plenty of weapons to take advantage of this weakness. Kirk Cousins has been playing great football of late. He has an elite tight end to throw the ball to, and the group of receivers here are still above average. The Vikings secondary which was once seen as a strength is now showing by the numbers as a weakness. Minnesota is likely to give up some big plays here to Russell Wilson and his solid group of receivers. Minnesota has had 5 of their last 6 games reach at least 49 points. The only one in that stretch that didn't was a win over the lowly Redskins. The Vikings games have been sailing over the posted total. Seattle has scored at least 27 points in 8 of their last 9 games. Seattle is giving up 24 points per game. With the move below the key number of 49, I like the value on the over here. Take the over. |
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12-01-19 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 51 | 9-40 | Win | 100 | 61 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs host the Oakland Raiders in a divisional battle on Sunday afternoon. Kansas City is a double digit favorite in this game. Oakland is going to do everything they can do to run the football as many times as possible here and keep the ball away from Kansas City's offense. The Chiefs aren't giving up too many big plays in the running game, but they are susceptible to giving up a few yards every time. I think Oakland can take quite a bit of time off the clock here. Kansas City has been a great under team off a bye with Andy Reid. That's partially because the Chiefs have been winning nearly every game off a bye with Reid. That helps because Reid and the Chiefs do slow the tempo down and get far more conservative later in the game with a lead. The under is 37-15 in the last 52 times Kansas City was a home favorite of 5.5 points or more. The weather will be a factor in this game too. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 20-22 mph and gusts of 35 mph or higher. That should lead to a few less big plays. Take the under. |
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11-30-19 | Colorado v. Utah UNDER 49.5 | 15-45 | Loss | -111 | 26 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Utah Utes defense is tremendous. The way they have been dominating games lately has been truly amazing. Utah has allowed 7 points or less in five of their last six games. The Utes have only allowed 20 plays of 20 yards or more all season. That is some excellent work at preventing big plays. Colorado's offense has been disappointing all year, and I would be surprised if they have much success at all here. Utah plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country. The Utes also run the ball on 66% of their offensive plays. They have shown they are willing to slow down and run the ball even more when they are ahead by a large margin. That is likely to be the case here. Colorado's defense has played much better in their last three games. They have a defensive-minded head coach and their seems to be improvement being made. Colorado has been more conservative on offense of late and slowed the pace some too. I see Utah winning big here and this one staying under the total. Take the under. |
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11-30-19 | Iowa State v. Kansas State UNDER 51.5 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 124 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Iowa State has one of the better defenses in the Big 12. There are so many really high scoring teams in the Big 12 that the oddsmakers have to put a fairly high total on every game. Still, it can create some opportunities in spots where the defenses seem to have an advantage. Kansas State runs the ball 62.5% of the time on offense. This is an offense that wants to be conservative and move very slowly. Kansas State ranks 127th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats are only 79th in yards per play on offense. Iowa State's strength is stopping the run defensively. The Cyclones are 36th best in the country in ypc allowed. They are giving up only 3.93 yards per carry in conference play. Iowa State plays at a slightly slower than average tempo. The Cyclones usually rely on the pass to move the football. The weather looks very shaky for this contest. Heavy winds of 20-25 mph are forecast according to multiple sources. I like the under without the wind, and with the wind this looks very valuable. Take the under. |
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11-30-19 | Boston College v. Pittsburgh UNDER 52.5 | 26-19 | Win | 100 | 120 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers are a strong under team. Pitt is playing slightly faster this year, but their offense isn't efficient at all. Pitt is 114th in yards per play this year. The usually strong running game just isn't good this season. Pitt is excellent defensively. Their strength is stopping the run. Pitt ranks 7th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. The Panthers easily rank as the best run defense in the ACC. Boston College is all about the run. If you can stop the run, you should have a lot of success stopping the Eagles offensively. I expect Pitt to at least slow them down here. The weather looks questionable in Pittsburgh on Saturday. If there is wind and rain it would be a plus for the under. Look for a low scoring contest here. Take the under. |
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11-30-19 | Southern Miss v. Florida Atlantic OVER 54 | 17-34 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Southern Miss is much improved offensively this year. They rank 24th in the nation in yards per play. Their running game hasn't been very good, but they have been very good throwing the football. Southern Miss ranks 10th in the nation in yards per pass attempt. Florida Atlantic started the season a little slow offensively, but the Owls have gotten things going as one would have expected. The Owls are third in CUSA in yards per play. They are first in total yards. Florida Atlantic is the second fastest paced team in the conference. Both of these teams have really had trouble with keeping the play in front of them. Both defenses have given up a lot of big plays this year. Southern Miss has allowed 26 plays of 30 yards or more (86th in country). Florida Atlantic has allowed 31 plays of 30 yards or more (114th in the country). Look for both teams to score quite a few points here. Both offenses have clear advantages. Take the over. |
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11-30-19 | Baylor v. Kansas UNDER 50 | 61-6 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears have had a bunch of low scoring games in the Big 12. We all know this is a conference where a good defense and low scoring games are very rare. In Baylor's last 9 games, 7 of them have had 44 points or less total in regulation. The Bears have gotten more conservative on offense and they are leaning on their very strong defense. Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer is banged up with an ankle injury. He is likely to play through it, but that likely makes them a little more conservative on offense. Kansas has relied strongly on big plays this year on offense. They aren't an offense who can consistently put together strong drives. The Jayhawks face a Baylor defense who is great at preventing big plays. Baylor has only allowed 32 plays of 20 yards or more (7th in the country). An important factor here is the weather. The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22-25 mph and gusts of 35-40 mph during this game. There are very strong angles for taking unders in that kind of wind. It should make both teams run the ball a lot more often here. Take the under. |
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11-30-19 | Wake Forest v. Syracuse OVER 64 | 30-39 | Win | 100 | 117 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange offense has been better the last couple games. Syracuse put up 510 yards last week against Louisville. They had 395 yards and 49 points against Duke the week before. Syracuse always plays quickly. They are 16th in the nation in pace of play this season. Wake Forest is 12th in pace of play, so they are extremely quick. The Demon Deacons are without a couple receivers on offense, but they still put up 618 yards and 39 points on Duke last weekend. I rate the Syracuse defense as the worst defense in the ACC. Both teams have given up a bunch of big plays this year, and I would expect quite a few big gainers again here. Take the over. |
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11-30-19 | Indiana v. Purdue UNDER 56 | 44-41 | Loss | -109 | 108 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Purdue Boilermakers and Indiana Hoosiers have a fierce rivalry. They play for the Old Oaken Bucket. These two teams always get up for this game, and I would expect a lot of intensity on Saturday in West Lafayette. Indiana's defense is much improved this year. The Hoosiers rank 35th in the country in yards per play allowed. Indiana has slowed their tempo offensively to help the defense this year, and it has worked. Purdue's offense is a shell of its former self without Rondale Moore and Elijah Sindelar. Purdue is reliant on throwing the football now. They have virtually no ground game. Purdue ranks 127th in the nation in yards per carry at a paltry 2.65 per carry. Indiana's offense also relies on the pass quite a bit. The Hoosiers are 104th in the nation in yards per carry. These teams relying on the pass could hurt quite a bit here based on the weather this weekend as well. Multiple forecasts are calling for rain all throughout the day on Saturday, and the rain could be an inch or more. The wind is expected to pick up and be an issue too. The field at Purdue is a grass field and it can get torn up pretty easily. Those conditions are helpful for the under. Take the under here. |
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11-29-19 | West Virginia v. TCU UNDER 45.5 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 88 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The TCU Horned Frogs and West Virginia Mountaineers are two of the better under teams in the Big 12. We see a very low total here for a Big 12 game, but I think it is justified. The forecast for Friday calls for heavy rain and 15 mph wind. This is a grass field and that will make it tough for scoring. In addition, West Virginia has virtually no running game. How will they move the ball here? TCU is excellent in pass coverage and the weather will hurt as well. TCU relies on the run, but West Virginia is excellent at stopping the run. The matchups and the weather make this an under play for me. Take the under. |
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11-29-19 | Iowa v. Nebraska UNDER 45.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes haven't played a game that has gone higher than 46 points in the Big Ten. That is just slightly above this number, but there is another key factor involved. The weather for Friday's game in Nebraska looks terrible. Freezing rain and rain with winds of 15 mph sustained and gusts to 20-25 mph are expected throughout the game. That is definitely significant enough weather to change the game. Iowa is 13th in the Big Ten in yards per carry, and I don't think they can consistently move the ball by being extremely conservatively. It will be hard to do anything other than be very conservative in this weather. Nebraska plays quickly, but they haven't been efficient on offense. Both defenses are excellent at preventing big plays. Even if the teams move the ball it should be in small increments and take quite a bit of time off the clock. Take the under. |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -109 | 48 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cowboys* The Dallas Cowboys are a much better team than the Buffalo Bills. The Bills are a decent team, but they aren't nearly as good as their record would indicate. The Bills have played the easiest schedule in the NFL, and it isn't even close. Buffalo has beaten teams who are 19-53 on the season. The Bills defense has played the weakest slate of offenses so far this year. Buffalo's defense is pretty good, but they are up against an elite offense in Dallas. In fact, the Cowboys rank number one in the NFL in yards per play at 6.71 for the season. Buffalo was blasted at home against the Eagles in a test earlier this year. They also lost on the road against a mediocre Cleveland team. This is a road game on a short week, which is a clear negative, and they are playing against a far superior team. Dallas hasn't been great in recent games, but this is a good get right spot for them. Take the Cowboys. |
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11-26-19 | Western Michigan v. Northern Illinois UNDER 54.5 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 28 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Northern Illinois hosts Western Michigan for this Tuesday MACtion contest. Western Michigan has been the most consistent team in the MAC this year. The Broncos have a good offense and a weaker defense. Northern Illinois has been a disappointment in general this year. The Huskies are 98th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams prefer to play at a slow tempo. Western Michigan ranks 75th out of 130 in tempo. Northern Illinois is 98th in tempo. The weather here is the primary reason for this play. The forecast calls for 20 mph winds with gusts of 35 mph during the game. Rain is expected as well throughout the game. A clear positive for the under. Take the under. |
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11-24-19 | Jaguars v. Titans OVER 41.5 | 20-42 | Win | 100 | 38 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans offense has been significantly better with Ryan Tannehill at quarterback vs. Marcus Mariota. Mariota wasn't taking enough chances, and he was holding onto the football too long. The Titans have scored 28.75 points per game in their last four contests. The running game has been solid all along, but now opposing defenses have to respect their downfield passing attack. The Jacksonville Jaguars run defense has been a big problem this year, and I expect the Titans to take advantage of that here. The Titans defense has been solid this year, but they haven't faced that many strong offenses. The Titans have still allowed a lot of big plays. Tennessee has given up 9 plays of 30 yards or more (23rd in the NFL). Jacksonville has allowed 12 plays of 30 yards or more (30th in the NFL). The Titans are far more capable of taking advantage and getting those big plays than they have been in the past. The weather looks good for this game and the total is set very low. Take the over. |
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11-24-19 | Raiders v. Jets +3 | 3-34 | Win | 103 | 35 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* The New York Jets have definitely played better in recent weeks. The Jets were an awful team without Sam Darnold. They simply didn't have another decent option. Darnold has been a bit up and down since returning, but he is far better than any other quarterback they have on their roster. Oakland relies heavily on the running game. The Raiders rank top 5 in the NFL in percentage of offensive plays that are a run. The New York Jets defense is 1st in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Raiders have played tight games recently against some very weak opponents (Bengals and Lions). Those were both at home. Now, Oakland must go on the road and take on a Jets team playing with confidence. Oakland ranks 19th in special teams DVOA and the Jets are 3rd. The Jets are -6 in turnover margin this year, and that should regress some over time. Getting the full 3 is key here, and I like the spot for the home team. Take the Jets. |
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11-24-19 | Dolphins v. Browns OVER 45.5 | 24-41 | Win | 100 | 35 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns haven't played a below average defense all season thus far. It's pretty amazing to think about that this deep in the season that would be the case, but the Browns offense has been up against so far this year. That changes here when they face one of the two or three worst defenses in the NFL in the Miami Dolphins. Baker Mayfield has slowly started to look a bit better. The Browns offense is pretty healthy right now, and the Dolphins secondary is banged up and is a big weakness. The Browns running game has been solid all year. Miami's offensive stats are skewed for the season. The Dolphins were horrible without Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback. That's not to say that they are great with him, but they are much better than they were with Rosen at quarterback. Fitzpatrick can be a positive for the over for two reasons. He takes a lot of chances and can get big plays for his team. He can also create big plays for the other team in the form of picks that create a short field. With the Browns without Garrett their pass rush is much weaker than normal. Take the over. |
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11-23-19 | San Diego State v. Hawaii UNDER 52 | 11-14 | Win | 100 | 127 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* San Diego State hasn't seen a single game finish above 48 total points so far this year. I fully understand that they are playing a Hawaii team who is capable of playing very high scoring games here, but I have to take the under in a San Diego State game with a line set this high. San Diego State's running game isn't even close to what it was a couple years ago. Washington is banged up in the backfield, and the offensive line isn't very good. Ryan Agnew is a clear weakness at quarterback. The Aztecs don't have good weapon on the outside either. The Aztecs still have a good defense though, and they have been good at preventing big plays. Hawaii's offense is all about explosive plays, but I think they'll find those harder to come by this week. Hawaii only plays at the 85th rated tempo out of 130 in the country, so they play much slower on offense than most realize. Take the under here. |
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11-23-19 | Oregon v. Arizona State UNDER 55.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -111 | 124 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Arizona State is likely to want to slow the pace down here and keep this a low scoring game. I believe they will know that gives them a better chance in this contest. The Sun Devils offense hasn't been very explosive this year. Arizona State has only 39 plays of 20 yards or more (105th in the nation). Oregon's defense has been really good all year. The Ducks rank 9th in yards per play allowed. Oregon ranks 4th in opponents QBR rating allowed. Arizona State's run offense has been really weak all year. It's hard to see Arizona State having too much offensive success in this game. Oregon's offense has been very inconsistent this season. The Ducks have had several key injuries on offense. Arizona State has allowed just 12 plays of 30 yards or more all year (11th best in country). Oregon has allowed only 8 plays of 30 yards or more all year (2nd best in country). I like defenses who prevent big plays when looking for an under. Take the under here. |
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11-23-19 | Tennessee v. Missouri UNDER 46 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers offense has been awful the last four games. First, they scored only 14 points in a loss to the hapless Vanderbilt Commodores. Missouri then followed it up by scoring 7 points at Kentucky. Kentucky is a decent defense, but they aren't great. Missouri was then shut out by Georgia and held to 6 points by Florida. The Tigers have scored a total of 27 points in their last four contests. They have only one touchdown in their last three games. Tennessee's defense has been very solid this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, this is a defense that I rate as a top 30 defense. The Volunteers aren't likely to give up many big plays here. Missouri's defense has been excellent this year. The Tigers rank 14th in yards per play allowed. Tennessee's offense is 91st in yards per play on the season. I think this is a tight low scoring game. Take the under. |
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11-23-19 | Temple v. Cincinnati UNDER 48 | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 124 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Desmond Ridder is playing banged up right now, and it is making Cincinnati a more predictable team. Temple is a defense that is due for positive regression. All year Temple has been much better in yards per play allowed than points per game allowed. This is a team with a very solid front seven on defense. Cincinnati wants to play slowly and eat up time. The Bearcats weren't particularly good at getting big gainers even with Ridder healthy, but they have gotten worse in that area with him at less than 100% percent. Temple's offense ranks 11th in the conference in yards per play. They have very little running game. They also lack a trustworthy quarterback. I see a lower scoring game here. Take the under. |
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11-23-19 | Texas A&M v. Georgia UNDER 44 | 13-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs have proven to be a great team led by an amazing defense and solid running game. Georgia plays very slowly. The Bulldogs are 122nd in the nation in tempo. With a lead, Georgia has been more than willing to just run the ball up the middle and burn up the clock. They are a decent sized favorite here, so they are expected to be playing in the lead during this game. That's a positive for the under. Texas A&M's offense has been a disappointment this year. They are 6th in the SEC in ypc, but Georgia is first in ypc allowed. Kellen Mond has been disappointing this year, and he doesn't have receivers who break many big plays. The weather is a factor here. Georgia's field is a grass field that can get sloppy in rainstorms. There is heavy rain expected before this game and showers during the game. Winds of 10-15 mph will be blowing during the game too. I see both teams being conservative in this one. Take the under. |
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11-23-19 | North Texas v. Rice OVER 55.5 | 14-20 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green expect to have Mason Fine back under center here. Fine is the best quarterback in Conference USA. Fine should be able to find a lot of holes in this Rice secondary. Rice has been pretty good at stopping the run this year, but their secondary just isn't good enough. North Texas has the quarterback and the receivers to make them pay. Rice has started to show some more offense in recent weeks. The Owls are now up against one of the weakest defenses in the conference. The Mean Green have been giving up scores by the bunches. This total is set several points too low. Take the over. |
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11-23-19 | Pittsburgh v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49.5 | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* We have 2 good defenses in this matchup. VT ranks 30th and Pitt ranks 7th in yards-per-play. VT ranks 31st and Pitt ranks 6th in yard-per-rush. VT ranks 39th and Pitt ranks 14th in yard-per-attempt. Pitt also leads the nation with 45 sacks and VT ranks 12th in the same category. Both defense also rank in the top 25 of red zone scoring percentage..  While VT's offense has gotten significantly better since the home loss to Duke early in the season, they still don't overpower anybody and this will be a significantly tougher defense than anything they have seen yet. On the other side, Pitt's offense throws on nearly 53% of their plays (18th in the nation) and while that generally hurts an under look, Pitt's offense lacks consistency and explosiveness. They struggle running the ball, averaging just 3.6 yards per carry (110th in the country) and only 15 plays of 30 yards or more (109th in the country). Even when they get to the redzone, Pitt only scored TDs 48% of red zone trips. One last factor, this will be Bud Foster's last game at home for the Hokies and I'm sure the players will be motivated to get a good defense result.  Rain is expected in this game which is likely to make both teams more conservative with their play calling. Take the under. |
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11-23-19 | Boston College v. Notre Dame OVER 61.5 | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The biggest weakness of this Notre Dame team this year is their rushing defense. We saw it against Michigan in a big way. It also has showed up in some of their other games. Notre Dame ranks only 55th in yards per carry allowed. The Fighting Irish now go up against a Boston College offense that has gotten a bunch of big gainers on the ground this year. Boston College has scored 89 points in their last two games. Their problem is they don't have any defense. Boston College has allowed more than 40 points in three games already this year. The Eagles are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame ranks 38th in pace of play. The Fighting Irish will get plenty of chances to score here. Boston College ranks 4th in tempo. The Eagles should be able to score their fair share as well. Take the over. |
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11-23-19 | Penn State v. Ohio State OVER 55 | 17-28 | Loss | -114 | 116 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Ohio State's offense has been tremendous this year with Justin Fields and J.K. Dobbins giving the team two great runners in the backfield. The offensive line has been far better than anyone could have imagined. Ohio State has excellent receivers too. Penn State has been victimized by good passing attacks the last couple weeks. I think Ohio State can do damage there and the screen game with Dobbins could give Penn State fits as well. Ohio State's defense has been very good this year, but they haven't had to play too many good offenses. The Buckeyes will likely give up some explosive plays against a Penn State offense that takes a lot of chances. This total was set under several key totals numbers. Both teams play quickly and I see this line as a solid value. Take the over. |
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11-20-19 | Akron v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 52 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips scored two touchdowns last week against a weak Eastern Michigan defense. Don't let that fool you into thinking Akron is getting good offensively though. Akron hit a 87 yard TD pass for one of the scores and then they scored with a minute left when Eastern Michigan was up huge and playing a prevent defense. Miami (Ohio) has the best defense in the MAC. Akron has been held to 6 points or less in 4 of their last 5 games. A touchdown or less from Akron is very possible here. Miami (Ohio) is weak offensively and they typically try not to run up the score. The Redhawks should win this game comfortably, and I believe that's a good thing for the under. Take the under. |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 41 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 101 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have proven what they are at this point. The Bears are a team with a really good defense and a terrible offense. Trubisky isn't the answer at QB, and the offensive line in front of him has been a disappointment as well. Does that sound familiar? The Rams defense isn't as good as the Bears, and the Rams offense is better than the Bears, but there are a lot of similarities here. Jared Goff has been a huge disappointment. The Rams offensive line is a mess. They haven't been good and they are banged up as well. These two teams met each other last year and the Bears won 15-6. I couldn't expect a game that low scoring again, but I do think it will be a defensive battle. The Bears have played six games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. The Rams have played five games to a total of 36 points or lower this year. Take the under. |
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11-17-19 | Saints v. Bucs OVER 50 | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 95 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense has allowed 33.42 points per game in their last seven games. Tampa Bay's pass defense is absolutely horrendous. Vernon Hargreaves hadn't performed up to what was expected, but releasing him definitely didn't make this secondary any better. Tampa Bay has only allowed less than 27 points in a single game all year. That was their win over Carolina early in the year where Cam Newton was clearly hurt. This Bucs defense is really bad. New Orleans has scored 40, 28, and 31 points against Tampa Bay in the last three meetings. Coming off a bad performance last week, I would expect the Saints offense to bounce back in a big way here. The Saints defense will likely be without Marshon Lattimore, and he is the key to the Saints secondary. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston is inconsistent, but the Bucs are loaded at wide receiver and they should be able to move the ball and score plenty in this one too. The over is 7-0 in the Bucs last 7. Take the over. |
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11-17-19 | Jets +2.5 v. Redskins | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 44 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jets* I have to fade the Washington Redskins here. Haskins simply does not look ready. The Redskins haven't surrounded him with much either. Washington badly wants to run the football right now, but the Jets defense is excellent against the run. In fact, the Jets rank number one in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Sam Darnold has been up and down this year, but I definitely feel better about him than Haskins at this point. The Jets also seem to want to win, and the Redskins have been rumored to be tanking this season. In a game that should be really ugly and low scoring, I'll always want to lean toward taking the points. In this case, I definitely want the points since the Jets defense should force Haskins to beat them. Take the New York Jets. |
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11-16-19 | Appalachian State v. Georgia State UNDER 62 | 56-27 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia State Panthers will be without star quarterback Dan Ellington in this one. Ellington was hurt at the end of the second quarter in last week's 45-31 loss to ULM. Georgia State scored 24 points while Ellington was in that game, and they scored only 7 points without him. Cornelious Brown was 8/18 for 80 yards in relief of Ellington. Brown isn't the player that Ellington is, and Georgia State is up against a good defense here. Appalachian State's defense didn't look very good earlier this year, but they have rounded into form. Appalachian State has allowed 7 points or less in three of their last four Sun Belt games. In their last five games overall, the Mountaineers have given up an average of 11.2 points per game. Georgia State's defense is bad, and Appalachian State should be able to move the ball a lot on them. The Mountaineers have slowed their pace down with big leads though, and I think this total is several points too high given the GA State quarterback situation. Take the under. |
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11-16-19 | Air Force v. Colorado State OVER 59 | 38-21 | Push | 0 | 124 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Both schools actually rank in the top 40 in yard per play and despite Air Force's slow tempo, they have been able to put points on the board due to their effectiveness in the red zone (averaging 38 points per game in conference play so far). The Falcons also have a bit more of a passing game to keep teams honest than they have had in recent seasons. Colorado St has big play potential as they have 17 plays of 30 or more yards in conference play (2nd best in the Mountain West). The Rams have 30 plays of 30 yards or more overall this year (8th best in the country).  Colorado State has been a fairly pass heavy offense this year, and the Air Force secondary is clearly the weakness of the defense. The Rams should be able to move the ball through the air.  Colorado State's defense ranks 113th against the run this year. Being bad against the run isn't good when you are about to face this great triple option offense of Air Force. Take the over |
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11-16-19 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 45 | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 120 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under*  Bo Nix and the Auburn offense has struggled when they step up in class. While he does look better at home, that has been against far inferior defenses. On the flip side of the ball, Auburn's defense has been outstanding all year long, including holding LSU to their lowest point total and their lowest yard per play (per game) of the season, and that was in Baton Rouge. Auburn's defense has been impressive in nearly every aspect of the game, stopping the run, preventing explosive plays and red zone defense. Georgia is going through at a surprisingly slow tempo this year, ranking 125 of 130 teams (and last in the SEC in just conference games). While their offense has looked good, they don't have the experience of the schedule that auburn has faced so far and I would give the edge to auburn's defense, especially with the hostile home crowd at Auburn. Both defenses rank in top 20 in yards-per-play allowed as well as red zone TD scoring %. Both offense run the ball frequently (57% of the time for UGA and 60% for Auburn), so the clock should keep rolling a lot in this one.  Great defenses and a running clock would favor a low scoring affair as the Deep South's Oldest Rivalry adds a new chapter. In a game that mean a lot to both teams, look for the defenses to be ready to go. The offenses will have to work hard for their points. Take the under. |
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11-16-19 | Kentucky v. Vanderbilt UNDER 45 | Top | 38-14 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 56 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats have had less than 45 total points scored in every SEC game other than their opener against Florida. Remember, that game had 43 points and as Florida tried to run out the clock with a few seconds left they busted a long TD run. Kentucky has run the ball a bunch all year, and the Wildcats offense has really struggled. Their defense has kept them in games. Vanderbilt's offense is absolutely hapless. They are averaging a miserable 3.93 yards per play in SEC play. That is easily last in the conference. In SEC play they have only 13 plays of 20 yards or more all season. The Commodores often get behind and need to try to throw the ball, but their passing game is absolutely awful. Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team. I would expect an ugly contest here that stays under the total. Take the under. |
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11-16-19 | Troy v. Texas State OVER 59 | 63-27 | Win | 100 | 120 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Troy Trojans have been a really good over team this year. Troy ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Trojans are 28th in yards per play on offense as well, so they have been putting up some big numbers. Troy has multiple options on the outside, and they have a veteran signal caller under center. Texas State ranks 48th in tempo. The Bobcats offense has finally started to click a bit better in recent weeks. There are some good offensive coaches on this staff, and I would expect them to be able to get things going more on the offensive end the rest of this year- and then especially get it going even more next year. These two teams rank 13th and 6th in the nation in percentage of plays that are a pass. That being the case, there should be a lot of possessions in this game with both teams playing at a fast pace too. This total is several points too low. Take the over. |
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11-16-19 | Indiana +14.5 v. Penn State | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 132 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Indiana* The Penn State Nittany Lions are in a really bad spot here. Penn State just lost their first game. This is a potential bubble burst spot. At the same time, Penn State still has a chance to get back in the playoff conversation if they win on November 23 at Ohio State. What is the sandwich game between their loss at Minnesota and that showdown with Ohio State? This game against Indiana. Indiana had a bye week to prepare for this game. Tom Allen has this Indiana team playing inspired football. They believe in themselves, and they have been better than anyone expected this year. Penn State is an ugly 2-12-2 ATS in their last 14 following a straight up loss. James Franklin's team will likely win this game, but I don't think it will be easy. Take Indiana. |
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11-16-19 | Florida v. Missouri UNDER 51 | 23-6 | Win | 100 | 91 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense ranks 10th in the country in yards per play allowed. They likely aren't that good since they have played a weak schedule, but the strength of this Missouri team has been their defense. Missouri's offense ranks 11th in the SEC in yards per play at 5.01 yards per play. The Tigers only have 37 plays of 20 yards or more this year (97th in the country). This offensive line has allowed 19 sacks, and the Florida defense ranks 5th in the country with 35 sacks so far this year. They'll be in the Missouri backfield in this game. Florida's offense and Missouri's offense both play at a slightly slower than average pace. Florida has been pass heavy this year, and the strength of the Missouri defense is the secondary. Florida's defense ranks 24th in yards per play allowed, and that number is skewed from their giving up so much against LSU. Missouri's offense clearly isn't LSU. This total has been bet up to a point where I see a good amount of value. Take the under. |
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11-15-19 | Fresno State v. San Diego State UNDER 45 | 7-17 | Win | 100 | 102 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I view San Diego State as a great under team. They are so consistent in playing low scoring games. They have only played one game all season that has finished higher than 44 points. That's truly amazing this late in the year. Both offenses rank in the top half in conference play on percentage of plays that are runs as both run the ball north of 50% of the time, which means a lot of running clock which is good for the under (SD St running the ball on 60 % of plays in conference games so far). On the field, we have strength on strength. Fresno's offense ranks 2nd in the mountain west (27th nationally) in yards per play and San Diego State's defense ranks 1st in the Mountain West and 13th nationally in the same category. I lean with SD St defense having an edge with their complicated 3-3-5 defense to keep them close in the game. On the offensive side of the ball for SD St, they rank last in the conference in yards per play and 125 in the nation in the same category. Ryan Agnew just isn't good enough at quarterback. Washington is banged up at RB as well. Even with a weak Fresno St defense, this team struggles to move the ball and score. Take the under. |
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11-12-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Akron UNDER 50 | 42-14 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Akron Zips have scored a grand total of 9 points in their last four games. Akron's offense is the worst in the country. The Zips are averaging 3.50 yards per play inside a MAC that is filled with bad defenses. Eastern Michigan has been a disappointment this year, but they are a big favorite here as they should be. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team, but they can't run the ball. If they get a lead, I wouldn't expect them to have much success running later in the game as they bleed the clock. Akron's defense actually ranks 54th best in the country and 4th best in the MAC. They are a respectable unit. It is set to snow in Akron on Tuesday. Most of the snow will likely be done by the time the game starts, but winds of about 13-15 mph and very cold temperatures will still be around during this contest. Take the under. |
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11-10-19 | Vikings v. Cowboys UNDER 48.5 | 28-24 | Loss | -109 | 19 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Dallas Cowboys are two of the most run heavy teams in the NFL. Minnesota ranks 3rd highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a rush. Dallas ranks 6th highest in the league in percentage of plays that are a run. These two run defenses have been excellent at not giving up big running plays this year. Dallas has allowed only one run all year of 20 yards or more. That's the best in the NFL. Minnesota has allowed only two runs of 20 yards or more so far this year. That's second best in the NFL. With a lot of running plays and teams who have been good at avoiding giving up big plays, I see a lot of moving clock and long drives here. If we get some drives where they take a lot of time off the clock and kick a field goal or don't score at all, it's a big plus for the under. Take the under. |
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11-10-19 | Panthers +5 v. Packers | 16-24 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Green Bay Packers run defense is a major problem. Christian McCaffrey has been great all season, and I expect a big game from him here. The Panthers run game is excellent, and Kyle Allen has been doing a nice job dumping the ball off to the backs out of the backfield. Green Bay ranks in the bottom five defenses in the NFL in pass defense against running backs. Look for Carolina to consistently move the football on Green Bay here. Look for them to have long scoring drives. Carolina has the most sacks in the NFL. Green Bay's offensive line is middle of the road. Carolina should be able to get pressure on Aaron Rodgers here. Carolina is beatable on the ground, but Green Bay's ground game hasn't been consistent this year. Green Bay has been fortunate multiple times at home this year (Vikings, Lions, and even Raiders to a lesser extent). The Packers aren't as good as their record would indicate. Take Carolina and the points. |
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11-10-19 | Dolphins v. Colts OVER 43.5 | 16-12 | Loss | -103 | 15 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins offense has been middle of the pack the last few weeks. Ryan Fitzpatrick is actually playing pretty well right now. It's clear he is a big improvement from Josh Rosen. The Dolphins should be able to move the ball here against a Colts defense that is mediocre at best. Brian Hoyer gets the start here and the Colts are definitely short handed on offense, but this Miami defense is very bad. Miami has faced the 28th toughest slate of offenses this year, but still ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They have been especially bad in the secondary, and they have a cluster injury problem in the secondary right now. Even with the Colts banged up on offense, I think Frank Reich and this Colts offense will have a good game plan to take advantage of this Miami secondary. This is a low total for a dome with two questionable defenses. Take the over. |
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11-09-19 | Nevada v. San Diego State UNDER 42 | 17-13 | Win | 100 | 128 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* San Diego State is great at turning games into a rock fight. They are great defensively. They are challenged offensively. They are also well-coached. San Diego State hasn't had a single game finish with anymore than 48 combined points all year. That's truly amazing this deep into the season. They have also had 4 games with 37 points or fewer in them. Nevada's offense has been hapless of late. They don't have an answer at the quarterback spot. This team has no identity on offense, and I find it hard to imagine them scoring many at all in this game. San Diego State is typically a team that doesn't win by margins. They are content to run the ball and use up a bunch of the clock. They should do it again here once in the lead. Take the under. |
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11-09-19 | Wyoming v. Boise State -13.5 | 17-20 | Loss | -109 | 53 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Boise State* Wyoming lost their quarterback Sean Chambers for the season due to an injury. Tyler Vander Waal steps in for him, and I see that as a clear step down. Vander Waal isn't a running threat as Chambers was. Chambers had 567 yards and was averaging 6.3 yards per carry so far this year. Vander Waal is a drop back passer, who hasn't been accurate at all. Vander Waal has a career completion percentage of 47.3%. He hasn't proven himself at all. He goes against a Boise State defense that is very solid. Look for the Broncos to make it really tough on Wyoming's offense here. Boise State has a good young quarterback in Hank Bachmeier. He has steadily produced very well. Boise State has 56 plays of 20 yards or more this year which is 16th in the country. Wyoming's defense is good, but they aren't as good as their numbers look. They have played a really weak schedule. Outside of Missouri, they haven't played a decent offense the rest of the season. With Vander Waal under center, I see value on Boise State here. The Broncos are the much better team who has played the much stronger schedule. I'll fade Wyoming. Take Boise State. |
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11-09-19 | Iowa State +15 v. Oklahoma | 41-42 | Win | 100 | 25 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Iowa State* Matt Campbell is an excellent coach. Anytime Campbell's team is getting this many points, I'm going to at least lean in their direction. Campbell's teams are 18-5 ATS when an underdog of 5 points or more in his career. They are also 10-3 ATS as an underdog of 10 points or more. Campbell's teams have been great in this role. Iowa State has a very solid quarterback in Brock Purdy. This offense has consistently been very good this year. The Cyclones rank 11th in the nation in yards per play. Oklahoma is coming off a loss to Kansas State and then a bye week. That is why this number kept climbing. I understand that Oklahoma will be highly motivated here and wants to run up the score. I'm not sure if they can in this matchup. Iowa State is the best run defense Oklahoma has faced all year. The Cylcones have covered in 3 straight years against Oklahoma. They have given them a ton of trouble. Oklahoma has a very good team, and I'm not low on them by any means. I am high on Iowa State though, and I think they'll keep this game close. Grab the points. Take Iowa State. |
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