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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-01-17 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 42.5 | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 33 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* What's been the best conference to under bettors in recent history? Easily the AFC North. It makes a lot of sense to me. When you have teams like the Steelers and Ravens leading the way year after year, you'll have a bunch of hard hitting defensive contests. Since the 2004-2005 season, games with a total of 41 or higher in the AFC North have gone 55-27 to the under. That's 67.1% unders. The Steelers haven't been the same offense on the road the last few years. The Steelers are also dead last in the NFL in rushing yards so far this year. Le'Veon Bell showing up late seems to have hurt the running game. The Ravens offense is a mess in the passing game. Joe Flacco isn't healthy and he doesn't have many weapons on the outside either. The Ravens are tied for last in the NFL in yards per play. The Steelers are only 20th in yards per play as well. The under is 7-0 in the Steelers last 7 road games against an AFC North foe. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 when the underdog in the game is off a neutral site loss. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 games in the NFL where a favorite of 3 or more from their last game lost by 35 points or more (Ravens). A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-01-17 | Colorado State v. Hawaii OVER 63 | 51-21 | Win | 100 | 48 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Hawaii Rainbow Warriors pass defense is extremely weak. Colorado State has big play makers on the offense at multiple spots, including the best receiver in the Mountain West. The Rams are going to get a lot of big plays in this game. Colorado State finished last season by scoring 46, 49, and 63 points in their last three Mountain West games. They probably won't score that much here, but I think they'll be in the end zone quite a few times. Hawaii's offense is improved this year under Dru Brown at the quarterback spot. Last week they struggled, but don't overreact to that, the game last week was played in bad weather at Wyoming (high wind). Colorado State's defense isn't very good. In fact, they are allowing 6.2 yards per play this year, which ranks among the 30 worst defenses in the country. Hawaii is allowing 6.3 yards per play. The over is 16-6 in Hawaii's last 22 games. The over is 4-1 in Colorado State's last 5 road games. Take the over. |
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09-30-17 | San Jose State v. UNLV OVER 64.5 | 13-41 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UNLV Rebels have a good offensive line. It is one of the best in the conference. UNLV has been running the ball and breaking some big plays in the running game. The Rebels have a couple receivers who are capable of getting open deep, and as a whole their offense is clearly improved from a year ago. Defensively, UNLV is way down from a year ago, and I expect a lot of teams to put up big numbers on UNLV this year. The San Jose State Spartans are coached by a previous Dino Babers assistant. What does that mean? It means a very fast tempo and very little defense being played. Utah State rolled up 61 points on San Jose State last week. Utah State isn't very good on offense. This is a Spartans team that is going to give up points by the bunches all year long. The over is 13-3 in UNLV's last 16 home games. I think this has a solid chance of getting to 70 points. Take the over. |
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09-30-17 | Marshall +3.5 v. Cincinnati | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 28 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Marshall* The Marshall Thundering Herd are coming off a bye week. Marshall last played and coasted to a 21-0 victory over Kent State two weeks ago. The Thundering Herd defense has a bunch of key transfers on the defensive side of the ball, and I think Marshall is underrated in general as a team. They went 3-9 last year, but their talent level is so much better than that. Marshall has a great football tradition, and this team feels strongly about getting things back on track this year. I think they'll do it. Cincinnati quarterback Hayden Moore is completing only 53% of his passes. Cincinnati's offensive line is a weak spot, and Marshall's defensive front should be able to get a lot of pressure in this game. Another key here is that Cincinnati played at Navy last weekend and several guys are banged up. Getting beaten by Navy and taking cut blocks on the defensive line all day is tough to recover from. Marshall catching 3.5 points and in a much better spot here. I'll take the dog. Take Marshall. |
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09-30-17 | Akron -1.5 v. Bowling Green | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 125 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Akron* The Akron Zips nearly went to Troy and beat the Trojans who are one of the best teams in the Sun Belt. Akron has a good running game with Warren Ball (transfer from Ohio State). The Zips also have some solid transfers from big schools on defense. Bowling Green is a program that has no identity right now. The Falcons lost at home to South Dakota. They were dominated last week by an MTSU team without their two star players. The Falcons have switched quarterbacks looking for a spark, but nothing is working. I see Akron as a team who has played Penn State, Iowa State, and Troy to tune themselves up for MAC play. The Zips have a clear starter at quarterback and running back, and that's a lot more than Bowling Green can say. Bowling Green's homefield advantage is small at this point as well, and I think there will be a lot of Akron fans at this game. Take Akron. |
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09-30-17 | Mississippi State v. Auburn UNDER 51.5 | 10-49 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Auburn Tigers have a top ten defense this year. Auburn is tied for fourth in the country at 3.63 yards per play allowed. Mississippi State's defense ranks 14th in the country in yards per play allowed. The Bulldogs have been significantly better at wrapping up on defense this year. This is a matchup of two good defenses, and neither team is playing very fast. The Bulldogs are slightly slower than the average team in the country, and Auburn actually ranks among the 40 slowest teams in the country here. Nick Fitzgerald has to do too much for Mississippi State on offense. He's a very good player, but the best defenses will find ways to slow him down and force someone else to beat them. Auburn's passing game hasn't gotten going this year, and they have been very one-dimensional. Both teams run the ball more than 60% of the time. A moving clock is great for an under. The under is 5-0 in Auburn's last 5 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the Tigers last 4 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-30-17 | South Florida v. East Carolina OVER 72.5 | 61-31 | Win | 100 | 117 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The East Carolina Pirates play extremely fast and they play no defense. They are dead last against the pass in the country and 123rd in the country in run defense. South Florida ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Bulls will be glad to push the tempo and score a ton of points in this one. Flowers is a playmaker and he and his offense have looked better the last couple games. East Carolina's defense should make them look even better. South Florida has had some trouble defending the passing game this year. East Carolina has a decent passing game and with the number of possessions there will be in this one, I see them scoring a decent amount of points as well. Take the over. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin UNDER 53 | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Northwestern and Wisconsin have a history of tight low scoring games. I see no reason to expect anything different here. In the last four meetings, the highest final total was 41 points. The last two games finished 13-7 and 21-7. This one likely won't be that low, but this total is too high. Wisconsin and Northwestern are both running teams first and that means a lot of ticking clock throughout in this one. Both teams will be geared to stop the run, and I think we'll have a lot of long slow drives in this one. Expect teams to have to settle for field goals and that's a big plus in this type of slow plod it out game. Take the under. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern +15 v. Wisconsin | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 35 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB DOG of the WEEK* The Northwestern Wildcats are catching 15 points in a game with a total of 49? This line is inflated. Northwestern didn't play very well early in the season, and that has changed many people's opinions of them too much. Wisconsin is a high quality team, and I expect the Badgers to be very good this year. Still, Wisconsin is the type of team that plays a lot of close games because they run the ball and use up the clock so much and play in a lot of lower scoring contests. Northwestern has actually beaten Wisconsin in 2 of the last 3 meetings between these teams. The Wildcats are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 as an underdog. This is a team that simply does better in the role of the underdog. The Wildcats have a good runner in Jackson, and I think they can do enough to stay in this game. The Wildcats front seven is the strength of their defense, and I think they'll slow down Wisconsin enough. This is just too many points in a game that should be low scoring and hotly contested. Take Northwestern. |
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09-29-17 | USC -3.5 v. Washington State | 27-30 | Loss | -105 | 67 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Friday Late Night BAILOUT* The USC Trojans have a lot more talent than the Washington State Cougars. You have to admire what Mike Leach does with this Washington State program, but it is hard for them to compete in the trenches with USC here. Luke Falk is always under pressure and taking big hits on a weekly basis, and the USC pass rush will be after him in a big way here. Boise State's defensive line caused a lot of problems for Washington State earlier this year. USC has played down to their competition this year, and that gives us line value here. The Trojans have a very high upside, and Sam Darnold isn't going to struggle all year long. What has Washington State proven so far this season? They were beaten by Boise State on their home turf until Boise State blew a 21 point lead in the last six minutes of that game. The Cougars have played a very weak schedule. USC is 4-1 ATS in their last 5 at Washington State. The Cougars are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. Take USC. |
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09-29-17 | Nebraska v. Illinois UNDER 49.5 | 28-6 | Win | 100 | 88 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini host the Nebraska Cornhuskers on Friday night. Both of these offenses have had serious trouble of late. Nebraska had only 306 yards against a very weak Rutgers defense. Nebraska put up only 17 points the previous week against Northern Illinois from the MAC. Illinois hasn't gained more than 354 in a game so far this year. The Fighting Illini were held to just 14 first downs and 216 yards in their season opener against Ball State. The Fighting Illini beat Western Kentucky, but they still only had 300 yards. They racked up some yardage late against USF in a blowout loss. Both of these teams rank among the 30 slowest paced teams in the country. Nebraska and Illinois are both improved on defense. Nebraska's defense has been great the last two weeks, and Illinois has been very good on defense in their home games this year. Neither team has a good option at all at quarterback either. This game likely won't be pretty, and I think it stays low scoring. Take the under. |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | 14-35 | Loss | -104 | 41 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Green Bay Packers offense is riddled with injuries right now. The fact that they have to play on Thursday night can't have made the coaching staff very happy when they are so badly banged up. They needed the full time to recover. While the injury to Randall Cobb (questionable) gets more attention, the Packers offensive line problems are the biggest issue here. Aaron Rodgers has been sacked 13 times already this year, and the team has multiple backups injured on the offensive front as well. No one unit in the NFL is more banged up than this Packers offensive line. Mike Glennon is a mess at quarterback for the Bears. He never throws the ball downfield, which greatly limits the Bears upside on offense, and it hurts Jordan Howard's ability to run the ball as well since he can't stretch the defense with his arm. Green Bay has slowed their pace down a bunch this year (likely due to injuries). They rank 22nd in the league in tempo. Chicago ranks 31st in the league in pace. The slow pace here is a key and the defensive lines having the advantage is as well. Take the under. |
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09-24-17 | Chiefs v. Chargers OVER 47.5 | 24-10 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs are first in the NFL in yards per play at 7.6. That is a full yard better than the second best team in the NFL so far this season. Kansas City is a much better offense than they have been in the past. Alex  Smith is able to be more aggressive now because he has the weapons around him. With Tyreek Hill as a big play option on the outside and Kareem Hunt making a big splash in the backfield, the Chiefs have home run threats all around. Travis Kelce is one of the best tight ends in the NFL, and I don't think the Chargers have anyone who can cover him. Los Angeles is without Verrett at cornerback, and this is a game where they will badly miss him. The LA Chargers are still good on offense with Rivers competing at a high level. The offense around him is a lot healthier than it has been at most times in the past few years. The Chargers are 10th in the NFL in yards per play. Expect a lot of big plays from both teams in this one. Perception of the Chiefs still being a defensive team that plays low scoring games has held this number down. The over is 4-0 in KC's last 4 road games. Take the over. |
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09-24-17 | Seahawks +3 v. Titans | 27-33 | Loss | -120 | 74 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Seattle Seahawks are 0-2 ATS so far this year. Some people are ready to give up on Seattle (obviously based on this number), but I still think this team can be a contender. Why? They have a tremendous defense, a very good quarterback, and a very good coach. Sure, they have shortcomings in other areas, but those three things will get you a long way in the NFL. The Tennessee Titans have to prove to me that they have taken the next step. They were beaten soundly at home in week one against the Raiders. Tennessee isn't a bad team, but I don't think they should be laying a field goal against a team with the upside of the Seahawks. The Titans are 7-22-2 ATS in their last 31 games at home. Tennessee is 17-35-1 ATS in their last 53 following a win. Seattle is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games when on a two or more game ATS losing streak. I think Seattle's defense has a big game here, and I see this being a close game. I'll take the 3 points with the better defense and the team with a bunch of veteran leadership. Take Seattle. |
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09-24-17 | Falcons v. Lions OVER 50.5 | 30-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Two good quarterbacks with a lot of weapons around them face defenses without a bunch of key players in this one. Vic Beasley and Courtney Upshaw are expected to miss this one for Atlanta, and those are two key guys. That should give Matt Stafford more time to throw. Stafford has proven at this point that he is a very good quarterback when given time to throw. On the Detroit side, Jarrod Davis is expected to miss this one and that is huge since I consider him one of the most important players on this team. Safety Tavon Wilson is a key guy who would have played a major role in slowing down the Falcons pass attack, but he's expected to miss this one too. Non-divisional overs of 52.5 or lower in domes have cashed at 56% in the NFL between week 2 and week 12 (the percentage gets lower late in the year as games mean more). Both of these are big play offenses, and I expect some blown assignments and lapses by the defenses in this one. Take the over. |
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09-23-17 | Penn State v. Iowa UNDER 52.5 | 21-19 | Win | 100 | 26 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Iowa ranks 27th in the nation in highest percentage of running plays compared to overall offensive plays. The Hawkeyes are going to come out and try to run the ball consistently at Penn State. I don't see Iowa taking many chances in the passing game here. Penn State is playing slower on offense than they did last year, and Iowa is always a team that takes their time with the football. The Iowa front seven is solid, and I think they'll make Barkley (a great runner) work hard for his yards here. There is bad blood here after Penn State said Iowa quit in last year's game. Iowa should bring a strong effort, and I think that should help the under. The under is 5-1 in Iowa's last 6 home games. Take the under. |
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09-23-17 | Florida v. Kentucky UNDER 47 | 28-27 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats are playing slower this year than they did last season. They've also been much improved on defense. They rank second in the nation in run defense. The Florida Gators defense hasn't been great in the first two games, but they faced two pretty good teams. Florida should settle in and be a top 20 defense by the end of the year. The Wildcats offense is running the ball 63% of the time on their plays this year. Florida is playing 122nd fastest out of 130 teams in the country. It's a combination that should equal a lot of ticking clock and less possessions for each team. Kentucky is extremely hungry to stop their losing streak against Florida, and this should be a good environment for football Saturday. My number here was 42.5, so I see several points of value. Take the under. |
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09-23-17 | Auburn v. Missouri UNDER 60.5 | 51-14 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers rolled up some amazing offensive stats against an FCS school, and in their two games against FBS opponents they have scored 13 (against S Carolina) and 3 points (against Purdue). Now, they face easily the best defense they have seen so far this year. Missouri ranked in the top ten in tempo all last year. They are outside the top 30 so far this season. They have clearly slowed down. Drew Lock has been extremely inefficient at quarterback. Auburn talked about playing faster a lot in the offseason, but the Tigers are playing slower than the average team in the country. The offense needs more work, and they run the ball at a very high rate (keeps the clock ticking). The Auburn defense is first in the nation in yards per play allowed. Auburn's offense is 102nd in the nation in yards per play. Auburn should control this game, and their defense should do the heavy lifting. This total is too high. Take the under. |
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09-23-17 | San Diego State -3 v. Air Force | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 99 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on San Diego State* The Air Force Falcons are one dimensional on offense. Air Force has to be able to run to be successful. Air Force usually has success running the ball, but Rocky Long has a history of being great against the triple option. I think San Diego State will be well prepared for the triple option again here. San Diego State has won the last five meetings against Air Force, and none of those wins were by less than 3 points. The Aztecs have held Air Force below 200 rushing yards (a rare feat) three of the five years. On defense, Air Force has one returning starter back from last year. San Diego State has a good offensive line and a future NFL player in Penny at running back. Penny should have a big game here. I realize San Diego State is coming off a big win last weekend, and that makes this a tricky spot, but this is more than baked into the line here. San Diego State is far stronger in the trenches, and they are a veteran team who should stay focused as conference play begins. Take San Diego State. |
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09-23-17 | TCU v. Oklahoma State OVER 64.5 | 44-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is performing like a well-oiled machine right now. Oklahoma State is averaging 8.64 yards per play through three games. That's a tremendous number. The Cowboys like to play fast as well. Their overall tempo numbers are skewed a bit right now, because they have been blowing teams out so badly that they slow down a lot by the end of the game. TCU ranks 33rd quickest in the country in tempo, and their offense has been much better so far this year. I expect them to be able to move the ball and score plenty here on an Oklahoma State defense that I believe is overrated right now. I see a typical Big 12 shootout in Stillwater on Saturday. Take the over. |
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09-23-17 | Wake Forest v. Appalachian State UNDER 49 | 20-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Appalachian State is a very good mid-major type team. The Mountaineers offense leans very heavily though on running back Jalin Moore. Moore is questionable and his coach said he will be a gametime decision for this one. Moore had a walking boot on earlier this week, so he is clearly in a lot of pain. Depth at running back is a problem for App State this year. Appalachian State has one of the best defenses of any of the smaller name teams in the country. The Mountaineers have a very good secondary full of veterans. Wake Forest's offense put up big numbers against Presbyterian and Utah State. Appalachian State's defense will be a much tougher unit to face. Wake Forest's defense has been very solid the last couple years, and Dave Clawson is a defensive-minded coach. I think Appalachian State comes ready to play here in a rare chance to host a "big" guy from their state. Tight low scoring game. Take the under. |
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09-23-17 | Alabama v. Vanderbilt UNDER 43 | 59-0 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I don't like to make a habit of betting under this low of a number, but I like the value here. I think this game stays in the 30's. Vanderbilt's offense is definitely better than they were a couple years ago, but the Commodores are going to get a wakeup test when they face the best defenses in the country. I don't see Vanderbilt being able to run on this very strong Bama defensive line. I still don't trust Shurmur to be the guy to make big plays in this spot either. Alabama's offense is good, but Vanderbilt's defense has exceeded my expectations in a big way. Vanderbilt played a good MTSU offense and shut them down. They completely shut down Kansas State last week too. Vanderbilt ranks in the top five in the nation in all major categories. Both teams play among the 30 slowest paces of play in college football. I'll be surprised if Vanderbilt scores more than 10, and I see this as a game where both teams run the ball a lot. The under is 55-25 in Vandy's last 80 conference contests. Take the under. |
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09-23-17 | Central Florida v. Maryland OVER 59 | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* UCF is much more prepared on offense this year. Milton has a year under his belt, and he'll be much better in Scott Frost's fast paced offense. UCF put up 61 points in game one this year against FIU. They won't put up a huge number like that against Maryland, but I do think they'll get a lot of yards and scoring opportunities here. Maryland's offense will be one of the most improved in the country this year. UCF lost a lot defensively from a year ago, and they are particularly weak at the linebacker and secondary spots. Maryland's young quarterback Hill should be able to put up some nice numbers on this UCF team. I considered this line early in the week, and saw money coming on the under and waited. At this price, I'm willing to fly in the face of the line move and take the over. My number here is 67 points. There isn't expected to be any weather issues here. Take the over. |
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09-23-17 | New Mexico v. Tulsa OVER 67.5 | 16-13 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I've played the Tulsa over in each of the last two weeks. The final score in each of those games has topped 100 points. I don't think this one will get that high, but I have to play the over again here. New Mexico will likely have a backup quarterback here, but the Lobos rushing attack has been great in the last few years. I think they'll be able to break big plays here too. Tulsa is easily dead last in the nation in rushing yards per carry allowed. Tulsa is allowing a whopping 7.57 yards per carry on the year, which is the worst in the country by more than half a yard! Tulsa's pace of play is the single fastest of any team in the country. They will be looking to play quickly and take advantage of a New Mexico defense that lacks high end talent. Tulsa is 12th in the nation in total offense. The over is 20-6 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. Look for plenty of big plays from both teams. Take the over. |
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09-23-17 | NC State +13 v. Florida State | 27-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on NC State* The Florida State Seminoles haven't played since week one. Two weeks in a row they missed games due to hurricanes. They play their second game here, and it is important to remember that this is their first game without DeAndre Francois as well. Florida State's offensive line is a bit of a question mark, and NC State has one of the top defensive lines in the country. NC State should make life difficult in the backfield for Blackman in his first start at quarterback for the 'Noles. I see this as a good numbers grab considering the situation. NC State has been practicing and playing games as normal, while Florida State has missed games and a bunch of practices. Take NC State. |
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09-23-17 | Army v. Tulane UNDER 49 | Top | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 117 h 35 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* These are two option teams up against each other. Both teams run the ball more than 75% of the time. With that kind of rate of running the football, you have to be extremely efficient on offense to score a lot of points. Tulane plays at a slower than average pace. Army plays at one of the three slowest paces of any team in the country. The practice these teams get against option attacks every day makes the defenses perform much better against the option than a typical defense. This is where they are accustomed to seeing. I had this number at 42. Take the under big here. |
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09-17-17 | Redskins v. Rams OVER 45 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The LA Rams are going to play fast this year. They have a brand new coach and system, and it already showed to be a big positive for Jared Goff. Goff definitely has potential, and he has good weapons now in Sammy Watkins and Cooper Kupp. Todd Gurley is still a quality runner as well. I think the Rams offense is much improved this year. The Redskins have a bottom six or eight defense in the NFL, and I think the Rams can have another nice game here on offense. The Rams are dealing with a bunch of injuries in the secondary right now. The Redskins didn't look great in week one on offense, but I think they'll be better here. They still have a solid amount of talent at the wide receiver spots. In weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL, when the total is 45.5 or lower, and wind speeds are forecasted to average 9 mph or less, the over is 132-95 in the last 227 contests. Jerome Bogers' is the main referee here. He has been an over machine because his crew calls a lot of pass interference and holding on the defensive secondary. The over is 76-58 (56.7%) in Bogers' games as referee. Take the over. |
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09-17-17 | Cardinals v. Colts +7.5 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 33 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Sharp Money Side* The Indianapolis Colts were absolutely throttled last week by the LA Rams. They couldn't have possibly looked any worse. Scott Tolzien was absolutely awful, and finally the team realized they have to bench him. Jacoby Brissett gets the start this week, and he can't do any worse than Tolzien. He has question marks, but he has a higher upside as well. NFL teams typically bounce back after blowout losses. How about this system? Teams who lost by 19 points or more last game and are getting 33% of the spread bets or less (the Colts are getting 28% as of Saturday morning when I type this) are cashing at a 58% clip in the past ten years. Apply a filter of a home underdog of 3 points or more and the win rate jumps to 61% ATS. The sharp money is clearly on Indianapolis here. Currently, more than 65% of the money is on the Colts here despite only 28% of the bets being on them. Carson Palmer is near the end of his career, and the Cardinals just lost one of the best running backs in the NFL. They also are without John Brown at wide receiver and Mike Iupati on the offensive line this week. I'm counting on the Colts to show some heart and make this a close one. Take Indianapolis. |
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09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints OVER 56 | 36-20 | Push | 0 | 32 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The New Orleans Saints defense has consistently been the worst in the NFL the last couple years, and they are likely to be right down there again this season. Sam Bradford threw for 346 yards and beat this secondary deep multiple times in game one. Obviously, Bradford isn't normally a guy who completes deep passes like that, so that is a major warning sign. Tom Brady and the Patriots offense will definitely have a better plan of attack for this one than they did last game. New England should utilize Gronkowski a lot in this one since New Orleans has struggled with pass catching tight ends in recent years. It's also a spot for Brandin' Cooks to have a big game against his old team. The Patriots defense looks like they are in trouble this year to me. They allowed Alex Smith far too long to throw last game, and he picked them apart. Now, Dont'a Hightower, the team's most important player on defense, is out for this game. How are things going to improve against Drew Brees and the Saints in the Superdome? Games played in domes in the first two months of the season where the home team is the underdog have gone over the total 61% of the time in the past ten years in the NFL. The over is 4-0-1 in the Patriots last 5 following a double digit loss at home. The over is 5-0 in the Pats last 5 games. The over is 4-0 in the Saints last 4 games. The over is 13-0 in the last 13 games in the NFL when one team is coming off a Thursday game and another off a Monday game  when the game is week 11 or earlier in the season. Also, in game two of the season, when a non-division team is a home dog of 3.5 points or more and the total is 40 or higher, the over is 12-0. In all, a 38-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-17-17 | Patriots v. Saints +7 | 36-20 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Saints ATS* The New Orleans Saints are a big home underdog to the New England Patriots here. 80% of the bets in this game are on the Patriots. The betting public is thinking- how could this Patriots franchise play so badly in two straight games? I'll be the first to say I'm not excited to go against the Patriots at any time, but this number is too inflated for me too pass it up here. The Patriots are missing Edelman, Amendola and Hightower (LB and best defender) for this game. Those are key. The Saints are still a very good team at home ATS, and they are almost never disrespected in this way by the oddsmakers on their home field. In week 2 and 3 of the NFL season, underdogs of 2.5 points or more who are also getting 38% of public bets or less are hitting at a 58.5% clip in the last ten seasons. Drew Brees is 9-1 ATS in his last 10 as a home underdog as a Saint. The Saints also fit a system of home underdogs coming off a week one loss that is 30-14 ATS in the last 44 games. The Super Bowl Champion from the previous year is also 7-20 ATS in their last 27 games when they are playing their first road game of the season and are favored. In a game where I see it be closing all the way, I'll grab the points with the home underdog. Take New Orleans. |
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09-17-17 | Bears +7 v. Bucs | 7-29 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bears* The Chicago Bears have one game under their belts and I think that is a positive here. Chicago ran the ball really well in week one, and I like Jordan Howard quite a bit in this backfield. Tampa Bay is in a very weird situation. They essentially had a bye week on week one, and now are playing their first game. There's a lot of destruction in the area and these players have a lot more on their minds than football right now. The Bucs are a better team than the Bears, but a full 7 points in this situation doesn't make sense to me. Dogs cover at a high rate in weeks 2 and 3 in the NFL historically, and I think this is a number that has gotten out of control. The Bucs are 21-45-1 ATS in their last 67 home games. Take Chicago. |
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09-16-17 | Kansas State v. Vanderbilt UNDER 52 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 72 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Vanderbilt's defense impressed me in a big way against MTSU in their season opener. The Commodores offense is a bit better than it was in recent seasons, but Kansas State's defense is easily the best unit they have faced yet. Both of these teams play at a methodical pace, and I see this one having a lot of running plays where the clock will be moving throughout. Kansas State doesn't have any big playmakers on the outside and Vanderbilt is lacking in that area as well. They will rely on the running games a lot, and both front sevens on defense should have the edge. I waited for a move up on this total during the week, and we finally got it. Time to play this one. Take the under. |
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09-16-17 | Tulsa v. Toledo OVER 73.5 | 51-54 | Win | 100 | 122 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have played at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. Expect that to continue. Phillip Montgomery is working hard to get this team to be the fastest every single year. Chad President looked much better in this offense last week, and Tulsa has a terrific running game. Toledo's Logan Woodside is a tremendous passer. Woodside is going to carve up the MAC this year, and I think he'll put up big numbers here too. Tulsa is dead last in yards per game allowed in the country at 618 yards allowed per contest. I'm willing to give them a pass for getting torched by Oklahoma State, but allowing 598 yards against Louisiana Lafayette is a big problem. Toledo's tempo is slightly faster than average, and Tulsa is the fastest in the country. This is a high total, but it's high for a good reason. I think there's a good chance this game gets to 80 points. Take the over. |
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09-16-17 | Louisiana Tech v. Western Kentucky OVER 60.5 | 23-22 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers offense has been a big disappointment so far this year. Still, this is an overreaction in the totals market. Western Kentucky still has a veteran quarterback who is one of the top two quarterbacks in the league. They still have a good collection of running backs as well. They should get things figured out. Louisiana Tech is a team that has a very weak secondary. The Bulldogs allowed 57 points against Mississippi State last week. On the offensive side of the ball, Louisiana Tech should be very good as they have been every year under Skip Holtz. In the last 3 meetings between these two teams, the final scores have added to 79 points, 107 points, and 102 points. I realize Western Kentucky has a new coaching staff and La Tech a new quarterback, but I'm convinced in Conference USA play these will still be two very good offenses. I'll look to profit from an overreaction to Western Kentucky's slow start to the season on offense. The over is 8-0 in LA Tech's last 8 following an ATS loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 September games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing 40 points or more in their last game. The over is 5-0 in Western Kentucky's last 5 after allowing 170 passing yards or less last game. The over is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two. A 26-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-16-17 | Tulane +35.5 v. Oklahoma | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Situational Spot Cash* The Oklahoma Sooners are coming off a great win over Ohio State last Saturday night on national television. Oklahoma was clearly very emotional and that was a game they had circled for a long time. Now, they come home to take on a Tulane team that is picked to finish at or near the bottom of the AAC standings. What would make Oklahoma be excited about this game? They have far bigger fish to fry. Tulane is definitely improving under Willie Fritz. The triple option attack will help slow the game down and keep Baker Mayfield off the field at least to a certain degree. Winds are expected to be 15-18 mph during this game with gusts of 20 mph. That makes passing more difficult, and that definitely helps Tulane and hurts Oklahoma. The biggest factor here for me is Oklahoma off a massive win and getting ready to play their Big 12 opener next week. This is a clear sandwich spot. This is a ton of points. Grab the big underdog. Take Tulane. |
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09-16-17 | Wisconsin v. BYU +17 | 40-6 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on BYU* The BYU Cougars are catching 17 points at home in a game with a posted total of 40.5. Anytime I see an underdog of this number with a total set so low, I lean toward the dog. In this case, BYU has certainly played some terrible football in the first few weeks, at least on the offensive side of the ball. Tanner Mangum is doubtful for this game, but Mangum has played very poorly in the first three weeks. Wisconsin is a really good team, but they aren't built to air it out. BYU isn't great in the secondary, but BYU has a strong front 7 on defense. I think Wisconsin will get some yardage here, but it will be tougher than normal for the Badgers. BYU has a great home field advantage. Wisconsin isn't accustomed to playing here, and the Cougars are a desperate team right now. I think Wisconsin wins here, but 17 points is too many for me to pass up. Take BYU. |
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09-16-17 | Virginia Tech v. East Carolina OVER 59 | Top | 64-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 26 m | Show |
*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the WEEK* East Carolina just fired their defensive coordinator. I don't expect it to help, at least not right away. East Carolina plays at a very quick tempo, and their defense ends up being on the field a lot. This defense is very thin and I expect them to give up huge yardage and points on a weekly basis. How bad have they been so far? In two games they are allowing an eye popping 616.5 yards per game. That's second worst in the country. Virginia Tech is pushing the tempo even more than they did a year ago. Jackson looks good in this offense. The Hokies put up 54 points by themselves against East Carolina last year, and I think they can get close to 50 again here. The pace of this game combined with the fact that one of the defenses is one of the five worst in the country makes this too low of a number. In fact, my number is a full touchdown higher. Take the over big. |
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09-16-17 | Costal Carolina v. UAB +105 | 23-30 | Win | 105 | 23 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on UAB Moneyline* UAB coach Bill Clark really impresses me. The guy did an amazing job at this program in 2014. Then, he got the rug pulled from under him when the UAB board decided to shut down the football program. There was no football team here the last two seasons. Clark stuck around despite the fact that almost every other coach in the country would have taken another job (he had chances too). That's loyalty that you can respect, and that's the type of coach that I believe guys are going to want to play extremely hard for. Coastal Carolina is without their head coach this year as they transition to FBS. Coastal Carolina has played only one FBS game and that was a home win over UMass. They were actually outgained in that game though. UAB's last game was very misleading. UAB easily outgained Ball State and dominated the stats in general. The Blazers allowed less than 400 yards in that game, but were beaten 51-31. Turnovers were the problem there, and I think that is correctible. Remember, this is Coastal Carolina's first road game as an FBS team. That's tricky enough to start with, and without your head coach it is worse. I like UAB at home in a spot where they should be highly motivated. Take UAB. |
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09-16-17 | Oklahoma State v. Pittsburgh +14.5 | 59-21 | Loss | -115 | 79 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Pittsburgh* The Pittsburgh Panthers were involved in a very misleading game last weekend. Pittsburgh had more yards than Penn State. The Panthers controlled the ball and ran the ball well against a good Penn State defensive front. Two turnovers and poor field position was their undoing. Still, they showed me a good amount against a very good Penn State team. I rate Penn State as a better team than Oklahoma State. Oklahoma State has put up a lot of awesome offensive numbers already this year, and they'll get a lot of yards here as well. Remember though, Oklahoma State beat Pitt by only 7 points in Oklahoma last year, and Pittsburgh ran the ball at will on them. The Cowboys offense is elite, but their defense isn't good. Pittsburgh should be able to expose their front seven on defense and play keep away enough to at least keep this game close. Pittsburgh has lost by 12 points only once in Narduzzi's two years at the school. That includes a few games against very good teams. The public is all over Oklahoma State here. 85% of the bets in this one already are on Oklahoma State. I'll fade the public and go with the big home underdog. Take Pittsburgh. |
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09-16-17 | Air Force v. Michigan OVER 47.5 | 13-29 | Loss | -110 | 79 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* This wasn't necessarily a game I had circled to play on the open, but this line has dropped so low that there is too much value for me to avoid it. Air Force has one returning starter on defense from last year. The Falcons are going to be badly overmatched when Michigan's offensive line goes against their defensive line. Michigan returns only one starter on defense from last year as well. The Wolverines are good on defense, but they aren't as good as a year ago. Jim Harbaugh is always willing to run up the score on teams. I think Michigan will be able to put up a lot of points here. Michigan getting to 40 points or more wouldn't surprise me at all. Arion Worthman is a great fit for the Air Force option offense, and the Falcons should be able to do enough to get this over this very low total. The over is 6-0-1 in Michigan's last 7 non-conference games. The over is 5-0-1 in Michigan's last 5 September games. The over is 9-1 in their last 10 following an ATS loss. A 20-1 angle. Take the over. |
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09-10-17 | Falcons v. Bears UNDER 49 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Chicago Bears are going to run the football early and often in this one. Jordan Howard is a good back and I suspect he'll get a good amount of yards in this game. Still, the Bears don't have good red zone options and as the field tightens up in the red zone I think they'll need to settle for field goals. The Atlanta Falcons aren't as good offensively outside the dome and the turf. The Bears defense is better than they showed a year ago. Injuries really held this team back last year. I believe Kyle Shanahan moving on will hurt Atlanta's offense at least some in the interim. He really helped Matt Ryan and this offense reach lofty heights. There will likely be some interim growing pains. The Bears offense is extremely limited in the passing game, and I see this as a high posted total all things considered. Take the under. |
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09-10-17 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 41.5 | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Baltimore Ravens plan to start Joe Flacco here, but Flacco back has been a big problem all offseason. It's hard to expect a lot from him here. The biggest problem for the Ravens is they have no good option as a backup either. Andy Dalton is a middle of the road NFL quarterback, and he's up against a good Ravens pass rush here. I don't expect the Bengals to be able to move the ball consistently in this one. Games between these two teams are very hard hitting and typically defensive. The highest scoring game of the last three meetings was 40 points. I don't expect either team to be playing at a particularly fast pace. Look for both defenses to do a good job forcing their opponent to field goals instead of touchdowns. In week one in the NFL, conference games with a spread of 4 points or less are 66-39 to the under (63%) in the last 105 contests. The under is 6-0 in the Bengals last 6 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-0 in the Bengals last 4 games overall. The under is 3-0 in the last 3 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-10-17 | Jets +8.5 v. Bills | 12-21 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Value Play* No, I don't think the New York Jets are a good football team. They're going to have a very bad season. Still, I have to back them with this many points against a Buffalo Bills team that isn't good either. In week one in the NFL in the past five years, underdogs of 6.5 points or more are cashing at a 60% clip. It makes sense to me. Even bad teams fight hard in week one, because everyone starts 0-0. Later in the season there are plenty of teams who are tanking or at least not putting in the full effort. Buffalo has all kinds of question marks. They should be good running the football, but McCoy has been dealing with a nagging injury. The Jets defense should be pretty good against the run as well. Last year, the Jets beat the Bills twice. The sharps are clearly on the Jets in this one. While 55% of the bets are on the Bills, about 80% of the money is on the Jets. I'll back the ugly underdog given this many points. The underdog is 4-0 ATS in the last 4 meetings between these two. Take the Jets. |
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09-09-17 | South Carolina v. Missouri OVER 72.5 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The South Carolina Gamecocks offense is clearly much better with Jake Bentley at quarterback than it has been in the past couple seasons. They also have an improved offensive line. South Carolina didn't play quick against NC State, but they were definitely playing at a quicker tempo than they did a year ago. Missouri should rank in the top five in the country in tempo this season. Drew Lock knows Josh Heupel's offense really well now, and he'll put up big numbers. On the other side, Missouri's defense is probably the worst in the SEC. This secondary is going to be torched on a week to week basis. The combination of an extremely fast paced efficient offense and a really bad defense will make for some very high scoring games involving Missouri this year. This one is a little higher than I was hoping to pay, but I think this could easily be a 45-38 type of game. Take the over. |
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09-09-17 | Auburn v. Clemson UNDER 57.5 | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 21 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Auburn/Clemson TV MONEYMAKER* The Auburn Tigers defense was extremely dominant last weekend. I'm very impressed by this front seven and their ability to get into the backfield. While Clemson has plenty of talent on offense, there is no doubt they lost a bunch of key contributors from last year's team. I believe this Clemson offense will be good over time, but I think they might struggle against top defenses early in the season. Clemson's defensive line is the best defensive front in the country. The Auburn offensive line is going to have their hands full in this one. Auburn only has one of their two star running backs available for this game. At quarterback, Jarrett Stidham has tons of potential, but he didn't look comfortable last week against Georgia Southern. This is obviously a much tougher task for Stidham and Auburn offense, and I don't think yards will come easy for them in this one. I see this being a tight hard fought game between two very good defenses. The under is 4-0 in Auburn's last 4 games after gaining 450 yards or more in their previous game. The under is 3-0-1 in Auburn's last 4 against the ACC. The under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. An 11-1 angle. Take the under. |
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09-09-17 | Nebraska v. Oregon OVER 68.5 | 35-42 | Win | 100 | 24 h 0 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks are going to play really quickly again this year. I like Herbert quite a bit in this system. He got a lot of time last year as a freshman, and he is going to end up being a very good quarterback. Oregon's collection of running backs is about as good as anyone in the country. Nebraska has an upgrade at quarterback in Tanner Lee and they'll run Mike Riley's pro style offense more efficiently than they did with Armstrong at quarterback. The Cornhuskers were torched on defense though by Arkansas State, and the Red Wolves are nothing special offensively. I don't see Nebraska having much success at all slowing down Oregon here. Oregon had 482 yards on Nebraska last year, and this Ducks offense is definitely better this season. The weather looks for this one with only 5 mph winds and a temperature around 75 degrees. The over is 47-17-1 in the Ducks last 65 home games. Take the over. |
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09-09-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Tulsa -13.5 | 42-66 | Win | 100 | 23 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB ATS Play of Week* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane have been thrown to the trash too quickly. This is an overreaction to week one. Tulsa got beaten badly by Oklahoma State last weekend, but Oklahoma State is going to beat a lot of teams badly with their elite offense. Tulsa's defense is much better than they were a couple years ago, and I think this is a great spot for Tulsa to get back on track. The Golden Hurricane play against a ULL team that is without their top quarterback, running back, and wide receiver from last year. Lafayette allowed 48 points to SE Louisiana last weekend. If that poor FCS team is racking up the points on them, how do they expect to stop Tulsa? The Golden Hurricane have a great stable of running backs and a very good offensive line. The quarterback play only has to be average for this offense to be very good. Tulsa is 5-0 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 following a loss. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games after allowing more than 200 yards rushing last game. A 15-0 angle. Take Tulsa. |
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09-09-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Tulsa OVER 57.5 | 42-66 | Win | 100 | 18 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* UL Lafayette allowed 48 points and 514 yards against SE Louisiana last week. In fact, Lafayette was very fortunate to win that game against the FCS opponent. What would make anyone think UL Lafayette is going to slow down Tulsa's offense? Yes Tulsa struggled a bit last week against Oklahoma State, but they are stepping way down in class in a home game against a Sun Belt opponent here. Tulsa's quarterbacks will look a lot better than they did last week, because this ULL secondary is really bad. Tulsa pushes the pace and will rank in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo this year. This feels like one of those games where Tulsa could put up a big number to get things back on track. UL Lafayette will have a lot of possessions and I do expect them to break through with some scoring in this one. With a very fast tempo, this is a low total. The over is 20-7 in Tulsa's last 27 home games. Take the over. |
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09-09-17 | Indiana v. Virginia OVER 55.5 | 34-17 | Loss | -110 | 109 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Indiana played at a lightning fast tempo against Ohio State in game one. Their offensive efficiency was clearly hurt by Ohio State's elite defensive line. They won't face another defensive line that talented this year. Indiana should rank as one of the top ten fastest offenses in the nation at the end of the year. Richard Lagow looked very comfortable in this offense, and he has some very good receivers at his disposal as well. Virginia prefers to play fast and Mendenhall and Anae have looked to push the tempo last year and in previous seasons at BYU. Kurt Benkert gives the team a very solid quarterback who should be much better in year two of their system. It's all about tempo here for me. If you are going to put out a total this low in a game that should have a bunch of extra plays, I have to take the over. Take the over here. |
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09-09-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Syracuse OVER 74 | 30-23 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders struggled offensively last week. I don't expect them to struggle on offense very often this year though. MTSU was great on offense under offensive coordinator Tony Franklin last year, and they'll be very good again this year. Brent Stockstill is one of the more underrated quarterbacks in college football, and Richie James is a top five receiver in the country. Syracuse is going to push the pace in a big way as long as Dino Babers is their head coach. Syracuse has a great fit for the system at quarterback in Eric Dungey. The offense stumbled a bit last year when Dungey was injured, but when he is healthy Syracuse is capable of putting up huge numbers. Though this is a high number, these were both teams that I had highlighted as "over" teams in the right spots this season. The tempo of this game should be extremely quick, meaning both quarterbacks will have a lot of chances to make big plays. Take the over. |
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09-09-17 | Wake Forest v. Boston College UNDER 47 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 58 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Boston College is trying to play faster this year. They will get more snaps off than they have the last couple years, but their offense is still really bad. Wake Forest has some major offensive deficiencies too. These are two head coaches who are great defensive-minded guys, but they don't have good offensive coordinators on their staffs. The last two years the games between these two have combined to be 17-17 (in 2 full games). I considered avoiding this one because BC is trying to pick up the pace this year, but when the number was pushed up this high, I had to take the under. The under is 25-12 in Wake Forest's last 37 conference games. The under is 62-30-2 in BC's last 94 games overall. Another sloppy low scoring contest should be expected. Take the under. |
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09-09-17 | Buffalo v. Army UNDER 54.5 | 17-21 | Win | 100 | 19 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This is more about tempo and running clock than anything else. Buffalo beat Army 23-20 in overtime last year. That was a game that saw Army throw the ball 10 times and run the ball 67 times. Army lost their top receiver from a year ago, and I think they'll be extremely run heavy again this year. Army always ranks in the bottom 3 or 4 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Black Knights will be running the ball and eating up a bunch of clock with their long drives. If they get stopped on downs or have to kick a field goal at any point that is a big boost to the under. Buffalo's defense looked much improved against Minnesota last week. The Bulls have a coach in Leipold who is accustomed to preparing for the triple option and I think that helps them a good amount here. The Bulls rank in the bottom half of the nation in tempo as well. Too much ticking clock and slow tempo for me to pass on this one. Take the under. |
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09-03-17 | Texas A&M v. UCLA -3 | 44-45 | Loss | -115 | 312 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Play on UCLA* The UCLA Bruins open the season as a three point favorite at home against Texas A&M. UCLA had a very disappointing season last year. It was due largely to two things: the offensive line was terrible, and Josh Rosen got injured. Josh Rosen is back and ready to go, and the offensive line should be better. They aren't great by any stretch, but remember they are playing against a Texas A&M defensive front that lost their two stars from last year. Texas A&M got great production from Trevor Knight at quarterback last year, and they have no one on the roster who can step in and put up those kinds of numbers this season. The Aggies offense should have a tough time against an improved UCLA defense. The Aggies secondary is a weakness, and I expect Rosen to be able to exploit that weakness. UCLA had every chance to win last year in Texas against the Aggies, and now they get to host an Aggies team that is much less experienced at key positions. I have UCLA as a six point favorite here, and I think this is a good spot to fade Texas A&M. Take UCLA in this one. |
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09-02-17 | South Alabama v. Ole Miss OVER 57.5 | 27-47 | Win | 100 | 294 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have had a lot of turmoil in the offseason, and they should look like a very different team when the season gets underway. Ole Miss brought in Sam Houston State's offensive coordinator Phil Longo to run the offense. He learned under Mike Leach, and he wants this team playing as quickly as possible. Shea Patterson is a quality quarterback, who should fit well in this system. He was considered a top five quarterback in his class a couple years ago. Patterson and the Rebels offense will face a South Alabama defense that is overmatched talent wise in this one. They simply aren't accustomed to playing teams with this style of play combined with this kind of talent. I'll keep this one to a 3 star play since Ole Miss is a bit of an unknown with lots of offseason turmoil, but I do believe this number is too low. Take the over. |
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09-02-17 | Louisville v. Purdue +25 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 41 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Purdue Boilermakers aren't going to be a good team overnight when Jeff Brohm takes over, but I do think they'll be clearly improved. Purdue actually has a pretty good fit at quarterback in Blough. He threw too many interceptions last year, but he should be helped a lot by Brohm's offensive game planning. Markell Jones is a quality runner as well. Nick Holt did great work with the Western Kentucky defense. Purdue's defense isn't a good defense, but they'll be better than a year ago. Louisville is a team I'm a little lower on than most people heading into this season. Lamar Jackson lost a ton of weapons around him. The offensive line isn't very good, and he lost his leading running back and top three receivers from a year ago. Jackson is very good, but I think it will take some time to adjust to life without these guys. This is a bunch of points for a Louisville team with a lot of question marks to answer on the offensive end to cover. Also, Jeff Brohm knows this Louisville scheme well because of his past. I'll grab the points. Take Purdue. |
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09-02-17 | Georgia Southern v. Auburn OVER 52 | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 295 h 31 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* The Auburn Tigers have a new offensive coordinator. They are going to play much faster this season. Auburn brought in Chip Lindsay to run this offense, and he constantly talks about tempo and changing the way they play. Auburn is not only going to play faster, but they have a much better quarterback for their system. Jarrett Stidham should be tremendous in this system. Stidham has all the talent you could ever hope for, and I think he'll make good decisions in this fast paced offense. He'll be helped by a great tailback tandem of Pettway and Johnson. The Auburn defense isn't going to be as good as they were last year. I certainly don't expect Georgia Southern to do a bunch of damage here, but they should be able to help out a little. Last year, Auburn hung 51 points and 706 yards on Arkansas State, their lone Sun Belt opponent. This Georgia Southern team has a worse defense than Arkansas State. The Sun Belt defensive line will be overmatched by Auburn. This Auburn Tigers offense is going to play faster and be even more efficient on offense. It won't surprise me if Auburn scores 52 by themselves (they should get into the 40's at least), and I see this one as a number that is far too low. Take the over big. |
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09-02-17 | South Carolina v. NC State UNDER 53 | 35-28 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The South Carolina Gamecocks have an improved offense this year, but I think this is an overreaction by the oddsmakers. Jake Bentley and the Gamecocks offense aren't going to be playing fast. In fact, offensive coaches were recently quoted as saying they want to use trickery instead of tempo. They should continue to be one of the slowest paced offenses in the country. NC State ranked in the bottom 1/3 of teams in the country in terms of tempo last year as well. The Wolfpack have some good players at the skill positions on offense, but this offensive line isn't very impressive. South Carolina's offensive line should be absolutely dominated by a tremendous NC State defensive front in this one. The Wolfpack defensive line is one of the top five defensive fronts in the country. They'll cause a lot of problems in this one. The weather could be a minor factor here too. The winds are forecasted to be 12 to 14 mph sustained with gusts up to 18 or 20 mph. That is enough to make teams a little more cautious in their game plan and keep the clock ticking. Take the under. |
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09-01-17 | Colorado State v. Colorado OVER 66 | 3-17 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams put up 58 points against Oregon State. Colorado State has actually scored 46 points or more in five straight games dating back to last season. I don't expect them to score that many here, but I do think they'll move the ball a lot on a Colorado defense that returns only three starters from a year ago. This Buffaloes defense was one of the best in the country last year, and they will regress significantly this season. Mike Bobo's Colorado State team has a bunch of weapons on offense. Colorado ranked in the top 15 in the country in tempo last year. The Buffaloes should still be very good on offense with Steven Montez under center this year. He has great skill position players around him. The Colorado receivers are the best in the Pac 12. Phillip Lindsay is one of the more underrated running backs in the country. Colorado had 578 yards of offense last year on Colorado State. They'll have a bunch again here. The weather looks good for this one. While the price isn't a great value, I believe there is a good reason to expect a shootout in a close game here (overtime isn't out of the question either). Take the over. |
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08-31-17 | UL-Monroe v. Memphis UNDER 69.5 | 29-37 | Win | 100 | 56 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I wouldn't play this under if it weren't for the weather report here, but the weather is too big of a factor for me to pass this up. The forecast here calls for an average wind of 20 mph with heavy rain throughout the game from the remnants of Hurricane Harvey. High wind and rain can really lower scoring. Past games with similar conditions have stayed under at a high rate. These are two teams who rely a lot on the passing game, but they'll have to run the football a lot more than they normally do in these conditions. I think that gives the defenses a better chance. These two defenses aren't good, but with the opposing offenses being one dimensional and these conditions combined with an extremely high posted total, I'm taking the under here. Take the under. |
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01-22-17 | Steelers +6 v. Patriots | 17-36 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Steelers/Patriots ATS CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers have won nine straight games. This team takes a back seat to no one when it comes to talent. Pittsburgh's Le'Veon Bell is the best running back in the NFL. Antonio Brown is the best receiver in the NFL. Ben Roethlisberger is certainly a top six or eight NFL quarterback as well. The Steelers defense deserves credit for the way they have come on late in the season. Pittsburgh has allowed only 5.2 yards per play in their last three games. They allowed only 4.6 yards per play last week at Kansas City. Pittsburgh has some play makers on this side of the ball as well, and Ryan Shazier is a very underrated linebacker for the Steelers. New England has faced the second weakest schedule in the NFL this year. The Patriots are obviously an excellent team, but I believe they are getting a little too much credit from the oddsmakers here. Obviously, the oddsmakers have to set the line pretty high, because the Patriots have been so good against the spread, and public bettors are going to want to lay the points with New England. While I believe the Patriots defense has been good this year, this is definitely the best offense they have gone up against this season. I'll be surprised if Pittsburgh can't score a solid amount of points here. I think Pittsburgh has a real shot at winning this thing outright, and I believe this game will go down to the wire, so I definitely like the Steelers and the points. The Steelers are 13-3-3 ATS in their last 19 January games. The Patriots are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 conference championship games. Take Pittsburgh. |
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01-15-17 | Steelers v. Chiefs UNDER 45 | 18-16 | Win | 100 | 47 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Steelers/Chiefs CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers take on the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday night in Kansas City. This game time was changed because of the likelihood of freezing rain earlier in the day. Even with the time change, the weather won't be good for this game. There is currently listed a 90% chance of rain Sunday night. The wind gusts will be up to 12 mph, which certainly isn't a lot, but it can make it more difficult to throw, especially when combined with the rain. The time change did move some people to bet the over, and give us a little more value on the under here. The number was 43.5 earlier today, but has now risen to 45 at several books. Ben Roethlisberger was dinged up playing late into the game last week despite the Steelers holding a big lead. Whether he is 100% or not no one really knows, but the weather will make it tougher on him. I expect Kansas City to play a little bit of keep away here. They know Pittsburgh's offense is very good, and I think Kansas City will want to win the time of possession battle and keep Le'Veon Bell, Roethlisberger, and Antonio Brown off the field. The Chiefs defense excels at rushing the passer, and Justin Houston is healthy now. The Chiefs defense wasn't nearly as healthy in their first meeting of the season with Pittsburgh. Both of these defenses played their best football late in the year. The under is 38-16 in the Chiefs last 54 home games. Take the under. |
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01-09-17 | Clemson +7 v. Alabama | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 28 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Clemson/Alabama Title Game CASH* The Clemson Tigers have been waiting for a second chance at Alabama for a year now. Clemson outgained Alabama 550-473 in last year's game. Clemson also had 31 first downs compared to 18 for Alabama. It was a back and forth game all the way, and Alabama ended on top by five points. Alabama's defense is unquestionably better this year. The Alabama offense is good, but this will be one of the most talented defenses they have faced yet. LSU held them to 10 points, and that is the only defense that has had more talent than Clemson that they have faced. I don't like the timing of the Lane Kiffin move to Steve Sarkisian at offensive coordinator. Jalen Hurts is a freshman quarterback, and he is now going to be communicating with an entirely different guy in the biggest game of his career. Hurts is excellent, but this is a huge stage and I won't be surprised if he makes a couple extra mistakes. The Clemson defense underachieved during the regular season, but they showed what they are capable of in dominating Ohio State. Brent Venables is the best defensive coordinator in college football. I certainly would have liked to have gotten more points than this, because I fully respect Alabama. Unfortunately, Clemson blowing out Ohio State took some of the value away. Still, I think this is a game that stays close all the way and in that kind of game, I'll always want to grab the touchdown underdog. Take Clemson. |
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01-08-17 | Dolphins v. Steelers -10 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Dolphins/Steelers CASH* The Miami Dolphins are 7-2 in their last 9 games. If you take a deeper look at the statistics though, you will see that Miami hasn't been that good during that span. The Dolphins have been outgained in 7 of their last 9 games. They haven't outgained a team by more than 14 yards in the past ten weeks! Miami's defense ranks in the bottom eight in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Miami was second worst in the NFL at stopping the run. The Dolphins should have trouble slowing down Le'Veon Bell here. The Steelers have Roethlisberger, Bell, and Brown all healthy for this playoff showdown. The Dolphins won at home against Pittsburgh in the regular season, but this Pittsburgh team is playing on a different level right now. Miami comes in with a backup quarterback and a beaten up secondary. Pittsburgh is definitely a team capable of making a Super Bowl run. The Steelers should coast to a win in this one. It should be noted as well that Pittsburgh played a top five strength of schedule this year, while Miami's was one of the weakest five. I don't normally lay double digits in the playoffs, but I feel it is warranted here. Take Pittsburgh. |
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01-07-17 | Raiders v. Texans -3.5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 62 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Saturday Wildcard CASH* The Houston Texans start Brock Osweiler in this Wild Card showdown. Do I trust Osweiler? Not really. This play is made in spite of him being at quarterback. Connor Cook starts for the Oakland Raiders. His first career NFL start comes in the playoffs and on the road. That is certainly not an ideal spot for him. While I don't trust Osweiler, there are at least as many reasons to not trust Cook here. Houston's defense is first in the NFL by a mile in yards per play allowed in the last 3 games of the year. Houston allowed only 4.0 yards per play in those games. There's no doubt this Houston defense is a top ten NFL defense even without Watt, and their secondary is one of the 3 or 4 best in the NFL. How about the Oakland defense? They are awful. Oakland finished dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed for the year. They gave up 6.1 yards per play. Derek Carr and the offense were able to mask that major weakness, but can Connor Cook? I don't think so. Oakland is giving up 12.56 yards per pass on the year, and the Raiders certainly could give some big plays up here. Houston does have some play making wide receivers. Huge mismatch when it comes to the defenses, and Houston has a nice home field advantage. The Raiders have no playoff experience, while Houston does have some experience in these spots. Take Houston. |
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01-02-17 | Western Michigan v. Wisconsin OVER 52 | 16-24 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Western Michigan Broncos have struggled to stop the run all year, and they haven't played anyone who can run the ball like the Wisconsin Badgers. Wisconsin is going to pound it constantly, and I don't expect Western Michigan to be able to stop them. I see the Badgers getting quite a few big plays on the ground in this one. At the same time, the Badgers secondary is very capable of giving up big plays. Penn State took advantage of this last game. Western Michigan will take advantage of this with star receiver Corey Davis. Davis will be the best offensive player in this game, and he's a future NFL star. While the tempo should be slow, I believe there will be enough big plays to get this one at least into the mid 50's. Take the over. |
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01-02-17 | Iowa v. Florida UNDER 41 | 3-30 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators and Iowa Hawkeyes meet up in the Outback Bowl on Monday afternoon. Since neither team ever really thought they had a chance for bigger things, I expect both teams to be motivated for this game. Iowa was trashed by Stanford in the Rose Bowl last year, and the Hawkeyes players desperately want to finish the season better than they did last year. Florida ranks tenth in the nation in yards per play allowed on the year. Florida is well balanced on defense and it certainly helps that they are healthier than they have been defensively in a very long time. Iowa started the year poorly on defense, but they played great on this side late in the year. The Hawkeyes finished the season ranked 24th in yards per play allowed in the country. In their last three games, they allowed 3.30 yards per play (Michigan), 3.05 yards per play (Illinois), and 3.19 yards per play (Nebraska). Both of these teams rank in the bottom 30 in the country in terms of tempo. This one will be played at a very slow pace. Also, Iowa runs the ball on 60.14% of plays and Florida runs it on 50.6% of plays. A lot of running, two solid defenses, and a slow pace. Those are all big positives when taking an under. This is a really low total, but it is low for a reason. My number here was 36. Take the under. |
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01-01-17 | Giants v. Redskins OVER 44.5 | 19-10 | Loss | -115 | 60 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of Week* The Washington Redskins are averaging 6.7 yards per play on the season. Washington has been able to move the ball very consistently this year. New York's defense is good, but they are also without several top players now. Jason Pierre Paul is out for this one. Janoris Jenkins is doubtful for this one. They have several other guys questionable here. Why would those guys play if they are hurt? The Giants can't improve their playoff standing no matter what. Washington needs this game badly, and the Redskins offense should pile up the points. The Redskins have routinely been gaining 400 yards of total offense in their matchups with New York, and I think they will again here. At the same time, Ben McAdoo said Eli Manning and Odell Beckham Jr. will play here. The Redskins defense isn't good. Washington ranks in the bottom 8 in the league in all defensive categories. New York's offense has been better in recent weeks. This number is too low. I see a good weather forecast for this one and a game that should get to 50 points or so. Take the over. |
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01-01-17 | Saints +8 v. Falcons | 32-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New Orleans Saints have shown that they aren't giving up on the season. New Orleans won at Arizona two weeks ago and then won at home last week against a Tampa Bay team with more to play for. I think the Saints will put in a good effort here against an Atlanta Falcons team that they really don't like. These two rivals typically play very hard against each other, and the underdog has been the way to go in this series. Atlanta certainly has a lot to play for here, but the Falcons defense gives up quite a bit, and the Saints are obviously a very good indoor team. I think both teams score a lot here. The backdoor could be open as well with the Saints scoring potential. The underdog is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. The Falcons are 0-4 ATS in their last 4 January games. The Saints are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 14-0 angle. Take New Orleans. |
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01-01-17 | Texans v. Titans UNDER 40.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Tennessee Titans and the Houston Texans meet in week 17. Tennessee is out of the playoffs and Houston is in once again. Marcus Mariota is out which means Matt Cassel will start for the Titans. Cassel is definitely a big downgrade for the Titans, and I think we see an even more conservative game plan from Tennessee in this game. The Titans play a slow tempo and run the ball a lot, both of which are good for the under. Houston's defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last five weeks. This defense is excellent, and I see them playing well again here. Tom Savage hasn't turned the ball over a bunch, but I wasn't very impressed with him last week in the Texans win over the Bengals either. Savage checked down constantly and I see very few big plays from Houston here. The under is a perfect 6-0 in the Titans last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. Take the under. |
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01-01-17 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns meet in the regular season finale. Expected to rest for the Steelers are Ben Roethlisberger, Antonio Brown, Le'Veon Bell, and Mike Pouncey. That's their best offensive players, and even against the Browns without those guys I think the Steelers offense will look like a shell of itself. Cleveland's offense wasn't any good last week either. The Browns are second to last in the NFL in yards per play in the last three games. Only the Rams are worse than them during that period. The Steelers defense is only allowing 4.9 yards per play in the last 3 games, and they have been much better down the stretch. With Landry Jones and Robert Griffin III as the quarterbacks, I see a sloppy low scoring game here. The under is 6-0 in the Browns last 6 after allowing 350 yards or more. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 during week 17 of the season. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 week 17 games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after scoring 30 points the previous game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 28-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-30-16 | Florida State v. Michigan UNDER 56.5 | 33-32 | Loss | -110 | 544 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Orange Bowl MONEYMAKER* The Michigan Wolverines rank in the bottom 20 in the country in terms of pace of play. The Florida State Seminoles rank in the bottom 40 in the country (out of 128) in pace of play. Both teams will be taking their time between plays in this one. That's a good starting point. Michigan's defense ranks second in the country in yards per play allowed behind only Alabama. The Wolverines defensive front has a big advantage over the Florida State offensive line. Michigan is first in the nation with 114 tackles for a loss. Florida State has been tackled for a loss 99 times this year, which shows how the opposition has been able to get penetration too often. Michigan should get in the backfield a bunch here. The Florida State defense was much better down the stretch. After a slow start, the highly touted recruits started to play the way you would expect. On the other side, Michigan didn't get more than 4.30 yards per play in any of their last three games. The Wolverines finished the regular season 48th in the nation in yards per play on offense. With a slow tempo and one elite defense and two offenses that have their weaknesses, I'm taking the under here. *Update- this line has dropped a lot since I picked it and I would play this for a 3 star rating at the current level. Thank you* |
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12-30-16 | Florida State +7 v. Michigan | 33-32 | Win | 100 | 17 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Florida State/Michigan ATS MONEY* The Florida State Seminoles were a team I thought would make the playoff this year. They had a rough start to the season, and things could have completely gone off the rails, but Florida State pulled it together and played their best football of the season late. Florida State's talent is undeniable. Dalvin Cook is the best offensive player on the field in this game, and it isn't very close. Cook's game breaker ability is tremendous, and Michigan's defense hasn't seen guys like him. The Florida State defense was terrible early in the year, but they got healthy and played up to their potential late in the year. They gave up 4.6 yards per play or less in 5 of their last 7 games. Florida State ranks as a top ten defense in the last seven games of the season. Michigan's defense is clearly very good. The Wolverines are going to make some big plays on defense here. I'm not sure the Wolverines offense is good enough to run away and hide though. Michigan is 47th in yards per play on offense this year, and it isn't often you'll see an offense that mediocre laying 7 points against one of the top six teams in the country in terms of talent. I have to grab the points here as I believe this will be a tremendous game that goes right down to the wire. Take Florida State. |
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12-30-16 | North Carolina v. Stanford -3 | 23-25 | Loss | -115 | 576 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Sun Bowl CASH* The North Carolina Tar Heels are a team with questionable motivation coming into their bowl game. Motivation is everything this time of the year. North Carolina expected to be in a better bowl game than this. They are coming off a stunning loss to NC State in their season finale. Also, Larry Fedora is reportedly considering other job opportunities. There are a lot of negative factors for North Carolina heading into this game. Stanford has played so much better since getting their fullback healthy (Marx) in the backfield. Also, now Christian McCaffrey is the healthiest he has been all year. Remember the show he put on last year against Iowa in the Rose Bowl? I think McCaffrey has a huge day again here. Baylor ran for a record setting 645 yards against North Carolina in the Russell Athletic Bowl last year. Stanford won't run for that, but they should have a lot of success on the ground. North Carolina is giving up 4.59 yards per carry this year. They have allowed more than 340 yards rushing in two of their last four games. Stanford's defensive backfield is healthier than they were during the early part of the season, and their numbers are much improved against the pass down the stretch. Stanford is 6-1 ATS in their last 7 bowl games. Take Stanford. *Note- with McCaffrey sitting this one out, I would rate this as a 3 star play at the current line.* |
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12-29-16 | Oklahoma State v. Colorado -3 | 38-8 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 CFB Alamo Bowl Bookie BLASTER* The Oklahoma State Cowboys can do one thing very well and that is throw the football. Oklahoma State ranks ninth in the nation in passing yards per game. Mason Rudolph has done a good job in this offense. The huge problem here for Oklahoma State is they drew a really tough matchup in Colorado. The strength of the Buffaloes team is clearly their secondary. Colorado's secondary ranks third in opponent QBR rating on the year behind only Ohio State and Michigan. The Buffaloes are tied for first in the nation in yards per pass attempt at 5.4. They are tied there with Ohio State and Michigan. Colorado hasn't let anyone beat them badly through the air. Overall, Colorado ranks 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.69. Oklahoma State's defense is 87th in the nation (out of 128 teams) in yards per play allowed. They are 108th in total defense overall. Colorado's offense isn't elite, but they aren't bad either. With both of their quarterbacks healthy going into this game, Colorado should move the ball and score quite a few on this bad defense. I expect the Colorado secondary to be the difference. The Big 12 isn't a very good league either, and I like this Colorado coaching staff a lot. The public is taking Oklahoma State at a 62% clip. The money though is about 50/50. Public underdogs aren't very profitable this time of the year, and I'll go with the team with the much better defense. Take Colorado. |
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12-28-16 | Kansas State v. Texas A&M -2.5 | 33-28 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Texas Bowl TAKEDOWN* I'm not high on the Big 12 this postseason. The Kansas State Wildcats always overachieve under Bill Snyder. I love Snyder as a coach, but his teams are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 bowl games. Regular season success hasn't led to postseason success for the Wildcats. Kansas State has a couple key problems this year. They are extremely reliant on the running game. They really don't have play makers in the passing game, and the Wildcats are just too one dimensional for good defenses. On the other side, Kansas State is really poor in pass coverage. The Wildcats rank 86th in opponent QBR allowed and 88th in yards per pass allowed in the country. Texas A&M had a disappointed finish to the season, but this is a team that has played well in bowl games the last few years. The Aggies have a chance to finish on an up note and build some momentum into next year. Texas A&M always has tremendous fan support, and this game is being played in Houston, so that is a big advantage for the Aggies. I think Texas A&M will be able to move the ball through the air and mix in some explosive running plays. The Aggies have superior athleticism here, and this is too short of a number. Lay the points. Take Texas A&M. |
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12-28-16 | West Virginia v. Miami (Fla) UNDER 56.5 | Top | 14-31 | Win | 100 | 505 h 10 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* I like both of these defenses. West Virginia played in a Big 12 Conference that was loaded with really good offenses and good quarterbacks. Their defense held their own. West Virginia only allowed 358 yards against Oklahoma State's very good offense. The Mountaineers allowed only 379 yards and 17 points to a Texas Tech offense that routinely scored 40 points or more a week. In 9 of West Virginia's 12 games this year they allowed 21 points or less. Miami's defense is 11th in the country in yards per play allowed this year. Mark Richt has done a great job getting this Miami defense going once again after they underperformed the last few years. Skyler Howard has been bad down the stretch for West Virginia. His performance against a bad Baylor defense was terrible in the Mountaineers last game of the year. I think Miami can make West Virginia one-dimensional on offense here. Both teams do a really good job limiting explosive plays. I see the defenses playing well in this bowl. I had this line at 49 points. Take the under big. |
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12-27-16 | Wake Forest v. Temple UNDER 41 | 34-26 | Loss | -110 | 479 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Temple Owls play at the 125th tempo (out of 128 teams) in the country. This means they are extremely slow paced. Wake Forest plays at the 104th tempo, so they are very slow as well. Temple is without Coach Rhule now, and that has to hurt them in some way. This Temple defense should still be very solid though. Temple is fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed at only 4.60. Wake Forest is 125th in yards per play on offense. Basically, it's hard to imagine Wake Forest scoring more than about 10 points or so. On the other side, Wake Forest's defense has improved a lot under Dave Clawson. Wake Forest is top 40 in all the major defensive categories this year. Temple is a good team overall, but their offense is just 65th in the nation in total offense. Since this is in a dome and Rhule is gone, I'll limit this to a 4 star play instead of a 5 star play, but my number here was 35 points. Take the under. |
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12-26-16 | Lions v. Cowboys OVER 44 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 88 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football CASH* The Dallas Cowboys and Detroit Lions rank 10th and 12th in the NFL in yards per play. Dallas is a very balanced offense with Dak Prescott doing a great job at quarterback and Ezekiel Elliot already as one of the top two or three running backs in the NFL. Detroit's offense is reliant on the passing game. Matt Stafford has been very good this year, and his finger injury is reportedly much better than it was last week. The Cowboys secondary takes a lot of chances, which means they could easily pick some off, but they could also give up some big plays. Dallas is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Detroit is 25th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. These two defenses are both below the league average in many key advanced statistics. I think we have a line that is too low thanks the Lions going on a big under run of late. This game isn't being played in bad weather like Detroit's game last week. It is in the dome, and this is a great environment for points. We'll look to profit from the overreaction in the line. Take the over. |
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12-26-16 | Maryland v. Boston College UNDER 44.5 | 30-36 | Loss | -110 | 454 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Boston College's offense is just awful. In fact, they were second worst in the entire nation in total offense this year. Who was worse? Only Rutgers. Ouch. Boston College averaged only 288 yards per game on the season. The under was 8-4 in their 12 games this year. Maryland was 94th in the nation in total offense. The under was 8-4 in their 12 games this year. What about the defenses? Boston College ranked 8th best in the nation in total defense. Maryland finished 81st in the nation in total defense. Boston College's defense has been very good against everyone they played except the most elite offenses. Maryland's offense is far from elite. The Maryland defense gave up some big numbers against teams like Ohio State and Michigan, but Boston College scored 17 points or less in half of their games this year, so I think Maryland's defense will be fine here. Take the under. |
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12-25-16 | Broncos +3.5 v. Chiefs | 10-33 | Loss | -115 | 31 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Broncos/Chiefs ATS CASH* The Kansas City Chiefs and the Denver Broncos meet in an all important battle in KC on Sunday night. Denver had almost 200 yards more than Kansas City in their meeting earlier this year. The Broncos found a way to lose that game, and they'll need to get a win here in Kansas City. The Chiefs are a good team, but they aren't a team I like to lay points with. Kansas City plays a lot of close games, and their offense is very mediocre. The Chiefs running game has been disappointing in recent weeks. The Broncos offense certainly isn't very good either. Denver needs to get some type of running game going here. The difference to me is the Broncos definitely have the better defense. The Broncos are excellent against the pass, and the Chiefs are unlikely to be able to run for too much against them. In a game with a total of 37 points, getting 3.5 points holds clear value. Look for a close game all the way here. Grab the points and take Denver. |
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12-24-16 | Bengals v. Texans -118 | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Christmas Eve CASH* The Cincinnati Bengals put a lot into last week's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cincinnati played really well in the first half, and then no showed in the second half. The offense couldn't get anything going against Pittsburgh after their first three drives. A.J. Green is expected to be back here, but I don't think he is 100 percent. The Texans defense is one of the top ten in the NFL even without J.J. Watt. Also very important to note is Tyler Eifert is expected to miss this game. Eifert is way more important to this Bengals team than most people realize. He opens up the rest of the field because teams have to respect his pass catching ability over the middle. Without him, the Bengals are hurting a lot. Cincinnati's defense is banged up right now, and the Houston offense got a big shot in arm last week when Tom Savage entered the game. I'm not going to pretend to think that Tom Savage is the next Tom Brady, but it won't be hard to do better than Osweiler has been doing for this team. The Texans have very good wide receivers, and all Savage has to do is manage the game. Cincinnati is out of the playoffs, and the Bengals have nothing to play for. The Texans are fighting hard here, and they are 5-1 in their last 6 games against the Bengals. Look for the more motivated team to win this one. Take Houston. |
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12-24-16 | Middle Tennessee State v. Hawaii OVER 69.5 | 35-52 | Win | 100 | 52 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Hawaii Bowl MONEYMAKER* MTSU is expected to get star quarterback Brent Stockstill back for this game. That's huge news for the Blue Raiders. Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country when healthy. Hawaii's defense is allowing 6.30 yards per play on year, which is 107th out of 128 teams in the country. Hawaii's pass defense is a major weakness. They rank 118th in the country in opponents QBRating. Stockstill should have a great game against this Hawaii secondary, especially since he has two great weapons on the outside in Richie James and Ty Lee. MTSU's offense has far more balance this year because I'Tavius Mathers has emerged as a great running back for this team. Before the year, many wondered whether MTSU would be able to run at all. In reality, MTSU ranks 5th in the nation in yards per carry at 6.05. Hawaii can't stop them here. Hawaii's offense has been much better now that Dru Brown is under center. MTSU's run defense is a major weakness. They have allowed 200 yards or more on the ground in 4 of their last 5 games. Hawaii should get some big plays on the ground in this one. My number here was quite a bit higher than this, but with Stockstill returning from an injury and 16 mph winds in the forecast, I'll keep this to a 3 star rated play. Take the over. |
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12-24-16 | Redskins v. Bears OVER 47.5 | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 18 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears might have found something in Matt Barkley. His numbers are really impressive since taking over, and you have to remember that he has been playing in some really bad conditions during that time. Barkley has thrown for over 300 yards twice in the four games he has started. In this one, Barkley will be up against a Washington defense that ranks 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I'm not impressed by this Redskins defense other than their ability to get after the quarterback. I think this is a spot where the Bears can get some big plays on the outside. The Bears defense is beaten up, but they have fought hard. Still, Chicago is likely to give up quite a bit here. Washington is first in the NFL in yards per play on the road. They are third in yards per play overall. This is an offense that is well balanced and has big play ability. The weather is usually a negative this time of the year in Chicago, and I think that has kept the total down. This time around though it is expected to be 33 degrees with almost no wind. That's as good as you can ask for. The over is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 games after a loss. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 Saturday games. The over is 8-0 in their last 8 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 23-0 angle. Take the over. |
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12-23-16 | Louisiana Tech v. Navy OVER 67 | Top | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 86 h 23 m | Show |
*5 Star College Football Bowl Game of the WEEK* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense has been tremendous this year. Louisiana Tech ranks second in the nation in yards per play at 7.56. This is a big play offense. They have 14 passing plays of 50 yards or more which is the most in the country this year. They also have 10 plays overall of 70 yards or more. That's what you call an explosive offense. How good have they been? Louisiana Tech has scored at least 44 points in their last 7 straight games that meant anything at all. In their 39-24 loss at Southern Miss, LA Tech had nothing to play for since they had locked themselves into the Conference USA title game, and I'm more than willing to throw that one out when handicapping this game. I think Louisiana Tech will score 44 points or more again here against a Navy defense that doesn't see explosive offenses like this one very often. Navy's pass defense ranks in the bottom ten in the nation in several key metrics. They are allowing more than 8.4 yards per pass attempt. On the other side, Louisiana Tech has two key linebackers questionable for this one with academic issues. The Navy offense struggled against Temple and against Army, but this is a whole different matchup. Navy gets to go against a Louisiana Tech defense that hasn't faced a triple option team in three years. Louisiana Tech's defense allowed 5.68 yards per play, which was 63rd in the country. Zach Abey should be much better for Navy with now three weeks preparing as the starting quarterback in this system. Remember how good this Navy offense was this year. They averaged 37.4 points per game. They are down some without Will Worth, but I still think they'll put up their fair share of points in this one. Take the over big. |
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12-19-16 | Panthers v. Redskins OVER 50.5 | 26-15 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Monday Night MONEY* The Carolina Panthers are allowing 6.6 yards per play on the road so far this year. That is the worst mark of any team in the NFL. Which team is first in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games? Washington is at 6.7 yards per play. This Redskins offense is playing terrific right now. Kirk Cousins has made much better decisions with the football, and the running game has given them a lot more balance of late. Jordan Reed is still a tremendous weapon for the Redskins also. As good as the Redskins offense is, I don't like this Washington defense. They are 24th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. I think Carolina gets quite a few big plays in this one. While Carolina technically has nothing to play for now, I think a Monday night game will keep them interested here. The Redskins have allowed at least 20 points in all but one game this year. The Panthers have allowed 40 points or more in 3 of their last 5 road games. The over is 4-0 in the Panthers last 4 after throwing for 150 yards or less last game. The over is 8-0 in the Redskins last 8 home games. The over is 5-0 in their last 5 December games. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. |
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12-18-16 | 49ers v. Falcons OVER 51 | 13-41 | Win | 100 | 146 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Atlanta Falcons are first in the NFL in yards per play at 6.5. San Francisco's defense is banged up and they have been terrible away from home. The 49ers are allowing 6.3 yards per play on the road. San Francisco doesn't have anyone in the secondary to slow down the Falcons deep threats. Matt Ryan and this Atlanta offense are firing on all cylinders right now. I think Atlanta puts up a big number in this game. San Francisco still plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. That is certainly a big help when you are taking the over. San Francisco's offense had serious problems with the weather in Chicago two weeks ago, and then they are a solid under team at home. Coming off two unders and now traveling to play in a dome against a high scoring team, I see this as a great opportunity to play the over. The Falcons defense is 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7, so they aren't all that good either. I see a lot of big plays in this game. The over is a perfect 6-0 in the Falcons home games so far this year. Take the over. |
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12-18-16 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 45 | 24-20 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Steelers/Bengals Rivalry CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers and Cincinnati Bengals meet on Sunday afternoon in Cincinnati. It's no secret that these two teams don't like each other at all. In general, the bigger the game is the better it is for the under. Cincinnati isn't going to make the playoffs this year. That means this game is their Super Bowl for the rest of the season. There is nothing more the Bengals would love to do than ruin Pittsburgh's playoff standing. In the past three games, Cincinnati's defense is allowing only 4.6 yards per game. That is second in the NFL to the Denver Broncos. Pittsburgh's defense has been much better in recent weeks as well. The Steelers rank 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Steelers have allowed only 12.5 points per game in their last four games. The weather should help some here as well. Light snow showers or flurries are expected and winds of 10 to 15 mph with temperatures in the mid 20's. Since 2007, when a team is in the first of three straight divisional games to finish the season like Pittsburgh is (Cincy, Bal, Cle) the under is 26-4-1 when the total is 40 points or higher. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 road games vs. a team with a losing home record. A 31-4 angle. I think both defenses play well here. Take the under. |
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12-18-16 | Lions v. Giants UNDER 40 | 6-17 | Win | 100 | 12 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The New York Giants and the Detroit Lions meet at MetLife Stadium on Sunday afternoon. The weather forecast here calls for a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 15 mph gusting to 20 or 25 mph during the game. That will make it a lot tougher to throw the ball, which is important since neither of these teams can run the ball. There is clearly a lot of sharp money on the under here, and while I would have liked to have this one at 43 or 44, I still think it is a good play at this level. Matt Stafford has a finger injury and that should limit him a bit. The Giants defense is sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed and they are fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. The Giants offense is fourth worst in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. Only the Jaguars, Browns, and Rams have been worse. Detroit is 29th in the NFL in rushing yards. New York is 30th in rushing yards. I think we see both offenses struggle through the elements on Sunday. The under is 7-0 in the Lions last 7 games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 vs. an NFC foe. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. The under is 5-0 in the Giants last 5 games. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-17-16 | Houston v. San Diego State UNDER 57 | Top | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 239 h 49 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs run the ball more than anyone in the country except for the teams that run the triple option. In fact, San Diego State run it even more frequently than Georgia Southern and Tulane, which both run option offenses. San Diego is going to want to run Donnell Pumphrey consistently in this game. Pumphrey needs 107 yards to break Ron Dayne's career rushing record. Still, it might be tough sledding here. Houston's run defense is excellent. How good? Houston is second behind only Alabama in yards per carry allowed this year. Houston is giving up just 2.87 yards per carry. San Diego State's secondary is the strength of the team, and Houston is a pass heavy team this year. Led by DeMontae Kazee, this Aztecs secondary is very aggressive on the line of scrimmage, and I think Houston's receivers will struggle to get separation. Houston isn't moving quite as quickly this year as they did in the past on offense. San Diego State ranks in the bottom ten in the country in terms of tempo. I had this one totaled at 49 points, so this is more than a touchdown off my number. Take the under big. *This line has been bet down since the release. I would still play the under here though. I believe this is a strong situation.* |
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12-12-16 | Ravens v. Patriots UNDER 45 | 23-30 | Loss | -108 | 20 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Monday Night Football MONEY* The New England Patriots are definitely short-handed on offense right now. There's no doubt that Tom Brady is one of the greats of all time, but it would hurt anyone to be without Rob Gronkowski. To make matters even worse, the Patriots are now also without Amendola. He had 65 catches last year, so he's obviously a big part of the offense as well. It might surprise you to know that New England runs the ball 44.33% of the time. That is the fifth highest rushing percentage in the NFL. This year's Baltimore defense is amazing against the run. They are clearly the best team in the NFL against the run, and they are the best in several years according to the advanced metrics. Brady has less passing game weapons here, so this is important. Joe Flacco had a great game last week, but it was still only one game. Baltimore's offense has been disappointing most of the year. New England's defense ranks third in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three games. This is an underappreciated unit. The weather should play a role here. Sustained wind of 15 miles per hour is expected during this game with gusts of 20-25 mph. Wind hurts passing games more than anything else. Take the under in this one. |
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12-11-16 | Seahawks v. Packers +3 | 10-38 | Win | 100 | 17 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star SEA/GB Afternoon MONEY* The Green Bay Packers are 15-1 straight up in their last 16 home games in the month of December. This is a team that is definitely good at using the elements at Lambeau Field to their advantage. With light snow forecast for this game, it is another opportunity for them to do that again here. It is very rare to find Green Bay as a home underdog, and with these conditions it makes me like the value even more. Aaron Rodgers has played much better of late, and Rodgers and the Green Bay offense should be able to take advantage of Earl Thomas' absence from the Seattle secondary. Thomas has been one of the most underrated players in the NFL for many years now, and I think his injury knocks this defense down a notch or two. Seattle isn't a great road team. Remember, they have lost road games at Los Angeles and Tampa Bay already this year. This is a difficult spot against a Green Bay team that has to win this game based on their disappointing start to the season. Take Green Bay and the points. |
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12-11-16 | Steelers v. Bills UNDER 47 | 27-20 | Push | 0 | 72 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* Weather will be a big factor in this game. Both teams will have to play very conservatively. The Steelers defense is much improved and Buffalo's defense is better at home. The weather forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for 10-15 mph winds and about an inch of snow during the afternoon. The combination of snow and some wind is really helpful for the under. There isn't a place in the NFL where the weather can change the game more than Buffalo. Buffalo plays at exactly an average pace of play, while Pittsburgh is slightly slower than average in their tempo. Things usually slow down when weather is a big factor, and I think that will be the case here. Buffalo's running game is definitely good with McCoy. I think they'll get some yards here, but I think Buffalo will be too one-dimensional to pile up the points with a situation like this. Pittsburgh will know the run is coming. The Buffalo defense was embarrassed in the third and fourth quarter last week at Oakland, and I think they bounce back here. This team has a lot of talent on the defensive end, and here is where they should show some pride. Take the under. |
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12-11-16 | Cardinals -2 v. Dolphins | 23-26 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Arizona Cardinals don't have the record to show for it, but I still believe they are a top eight team in the NFL. The statistics suggest that to be the case as well. Arizona leads the NFL in yardage differential. It's pretty amazing that a team with a losing record could be in that standing, but the Cardinals are. Arizona is outgaining teams by 0.5 yard per play, which is sixth best in the NFL. Arizona has the second ranked overall defense in the NFL. They are also second in the NFL behind only Denver in yards per play allowed. David Johnson has been tremendous in the backfield for the Cardinals, and I'm not sure the Dolphins defense can stop the Cardinals here. Miami's defense ranks third worst in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. They are giving up 4.65 yards per rush. Look for the Cardinals to establish the run and then get some big play action passes in this one. Miami's offensive line is struggling right now, and this Cardinals defensive front should give them a lot of trouble. Miami has had a lot of close wins over bad teams this year, and the Cardinals are underrated now. The Dolphins are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 home games. Take Arizona here. |
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12-11-16 | Chargers v. Panthers OVER 49 | 16-28 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Carolina Panthers have nothing left to play for. Neither do the San Diego Chargers. When neither team is motivated, I find that the game is generally higher scoring because motivation and important games generally makes the defenses play much better. Here, we have two offenses who are capable of making a lot of big plays. Phillip Rivers gets to play in North Carolina for the first time since he played at NC State, and I think Rivers will have a big day here. Carolina's defense ranks in the bottom half of the league in yards per play allowed, and they rank in the bottom ten in their last three games. Luke Kuechly will miss this game again, and his absence is a big loss for the Panthers. San Diego ranks 9th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The over is 5-2 in the Chargers last 7 road games. The over is 11-4-1 in the Panthers last 16 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the over. |
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12-11-16 | Bengals v. Browns UNDER 43 | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 72 h 53 m | Show |
*5 Star NFL TOP Play of the Week* The weather will be a big factor in Cleveland this weekend and I want to get this one locked in early. Both teams will need to be very conservative with the wind and snow on Sunday afternoon by the lake. I think this is a game that is played very low scoring and close the whole way. The forecast here calls for 1 to 3 inches of snow during the afternoon and winds of about 15 mph. Those are terrible conditions, and that should definitely change the way this one is played. Robert Griffin III is expected to start here for Cleveland, and in the snow and wind I have to expect the Browns offensive game plan to be very conservative. In their last 3 games, the Bengals defense has been much better. In fact, they rank fifth in the league in yards per play allowed at only 4.8 during the last three games. Even more interesting is the fact that Cleveland's defense ranks 12th in the NFL in yards per play allowed during the last three games. The Browns have faced some weaker offenses during that time, and they face a weak one here. Cincinnati isn't the same without A.J. Green, and they definitely miss Gio Bernard in the backfield as well. The Bengals running game hasn't been very good with Jeremy Hill. Cleveland is coming off a bye week, and they know this is likely their best chance to win a game this year. I think they fight harder than normal here. A lot of running the ball and moving clock because of the weather will help. Take the under big. *Note- The line has moved down since I made this play a couple days ago. The weather continues to look bad and I would still make this a top rated play on the under. It looks like a sloppy contest is in store.* |
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12-10-16 | Army v. Navy UNDER 52.5 | Top | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 120 h 37 m | Show |
*5 Star Army/Navy TOP Play CRUSHER* These two teams know each other really well. They run exactly the same offense. While these running offenses are among the best in the country, they generally benefit from facing a defense that isn't accustomed to facing the triple option. That won't be the case here. These defenses will be much better against that option look. In the past ten years, every single meeting between these two teams has gone under the posted total. The highest scoring game during that period was 48 points. In the last four years, the final total has been 30, 41, 27, and 38 points. Navy is without their top two quarterbacks for this game. Will Worth got hurt last game and now Navy is really short-handed here. The Midshipmen offense has been very good this year, but this is a big setback. Army's offense has had 235 yards or less in two of the last three meetings with Navy. Dating back 10 years, Navy has only topped 400 yards once in this series. Army has only topped 400 yards of offense once as well. This line is posted too high. Look for a bunch of running and the clock ticking away. I think this line should be in the low to mid 40's. Take the under big. *Note- The line has dropped here throughout the week. My ratings dependent on the line are as follows: a 5 star play at 51 or higher. a 4 star play at 48 or higher, and a 3 star play at 45 or higher. Thank you!* |
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12-08-16 | Raiders v. Chiefs -3 | 13-21 | Win | 100 | 16 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Oakland Raiders are dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Oakland defense is going to end up costing this team in big games at some point. I think it is here. Kansas City has one of the best home field advantages in the NFL. The Chiefs will have a raucous environment for this primetime game. They'll have another big advantage here too and that is the weather. Oakland is clearly not accustomed to the 18 degree temperatures they'll be playing on during this game. Derek Carr is a good quarterback, but he went to college in Fresno and now plays in Oakland. He is likely to be hurt by the conditions here, and he's also up against a ball hawking secondary that will take advantage of every mistake he makes. Though there have been more bets on the Raiders, there is more money on the Chiefs so far in this one. I believe the Chiefs at home are the sharp side. The Chiefs are just one game back in the division standings. They need this game. I think they get it. Take Kansas City. |
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12-04-16 | Bills v. Raiders OVER 48 | Top | 24-38 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
*5 Star NFL TOP Totals CRUSHER* The Oakland Raiders are certainly much improved, but it isn't because they have a good defense. Oakland is actually dead last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. That's a major problem, and I think the Bills can take advantage. Buffalo has a really good running game with McCoy, and the Raiders are the third worst team in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The Bills running game should bust some big plays here. Tyrod Taylor is more than capable of completing some deep balls as well, and Oakland's secondary is allowing the most yards per completion (12.53) of any team in the NFL. Buffalo is first in the NFL in rushing yards per carry at a whopping 5.29 (second is only 4.81). Oakland is fourth in the NFL in passing yards per game. These are big play offenses, and I see this total being a few points too low. The over is 6-1 in the Bills last 7. The over is 18-6-2 in the Raiders last 26 home games. Take the over big. |
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12-04-16 | Lions +7 v. Saints | 28-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* I'm fading the steam in this situation. This line has been steamed up to the all important number of 7. Detroit isn't getting the respect from the betting market that they deserve. The Lions sit atop the NFC North at 7-4 on the year. Detroit won at Indianapolis early in the year and they won in Minnesota a few weeks ago in overtime. They do have three losses on the road, but none of them are by more than a touchdown. In fact, the Lions have lost four games, and not a single one of those has been by more than 7 points. Detroit has been involved in close games all year, and there is no reason to expect this one to be any different. New Orleans put a lot into last week's game to get back at Gregg Williams (former DC in New Orleans). The Saints play at Tampa Bay next weekend in a key NFC South game. I also don't like the potential for team chemistry issues with Brandin Cooks throwing a fit about the lack of passes he has had thrown his way of late. Things like that can be a bigger deal than they first appear. While New Orleans has improved on defense, much of that improvement is in the run defense. Detroit is going to be throwing it around with Matt Stafford here. Stafford has played well this year, and I think he keeps the Lions right in this game. Take Detroit plus the points. |
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12-04-16 | Dolphins +3.5 v. Ravens | 6-38 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Miami Dolphins have won six games in a row. Baltimore has lost 5 of their last 8 games. Miami certainly comes in here with confidence, and this time of the year confidence is ultra important. Miami has become a different team with the success of Jay Ajayi in the backfield. Miami played without two key offensive linemen last weekend, but they will be back in the lineup for this game. The Dolphins have been able to take the pressure off Ryan Tannehill, and that has made him play much better. Baltimore has a quality defense, but this Ravens offense has really struggled of late. The Ravens average the least amount of yards per completion of any team in the NFL. Joe Flacco is playing with very little confidence right now, and the Dolphins have the front seven to pressure Flacco in this one. Note that Cameron Wake has been a monster of late for the Dolphins. He was banged up early in the year, but now that he is healthy, he has been superb. Miami is 10-0 ATS in their last 10 games as a road underdog when playing against a team with revenge. Baltimore did lose to Miami by 2 last year, so this system applies in this case. The Ravens are also 0-4 ATS in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record. The Dolphins are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. an AFC opponent. An 18-0 angle. Take Miami. |
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