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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-22-18 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech UNDER 52 | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Clemson Tigers have a tremendous defensive front. Georgia Tech is a team that has to run the football. They have virtually no passing game. Georgia Tech runs on about 77% of their offensive plays. The Yellow Jackets average a little better than 7 yards per carry, but they shouldn't get anywhere near that amount in this contest. Clemson has been excellent at stopping the triple option of Georgia Tech in recent years. The Yellow Jackets have had 230, 124, and 230 total yards of offense in their last three games against Clemson. Clemson beat Tech 26-7 and 24-10 the last two seasons. The Tigers are a bit vulnerable in the secondary this year, but this is the best defensive line they have had. Clemson also faced a triple option team last week. They should be ready. Georgia Tech's defense is showing signs of improving under new coordinator Nate Woody. He did a great job at Appalachian State, and he should do a good job in the long run here too. Tech ranks 53rd in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. With Clemson running at a 56% clip on the year and Georgia Tech running the ball on nearly every play, there will be a bunch of running clock. Take the under. |
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09-22-18 | Miami-OH v. Bowling Green OVER 53.5 | 38-23 | Win | 100 | 25 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks offense has been bad this year, but this is their chance to breakout of their funk. Miami's offensive numbers are skewed right now. They played a game in torrential rain and wind against Cincinnati and scored 0 points. They then scored 3 against a good Big Ten defense in Minnesota. Miami now goes up against a terrible Bowling Green defense. Bowling Green is allowing 7.32 yards per play on the year. That is 123rd in the country. Bowling Green has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. The Falcons allowed 29 points and a whopping 612 yards against Miami last year. The year before Miami put up 40 points on them. Bowling Green's offense likes to push the tempo, and I think Doege is a good fit for this scheme. In the same way that their offensive stats are skewed to the downside, Miami's defensive stats look better than they should. That torrential rain and wind game helped their numbers. Also, Minnesota has a really weak offense this year. Marshall put up 35 points on Miami in the season opener. This is an awfully low total for a Bowling Green game. I think both offenses move the ball well here. The over is 7-0 in Bowling Green's last 7 conference games. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following an ATS loss. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. |
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09-22-18 | Georgia v. Missouri OVER 61.5 | 43-29 | Win | 100 | 116 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia Bulldogs offense is better this year than last. Georgia has a much more balanced attack. They have playmakers on the outside, and they have a quarterback who is comfortable in the system and has experience. Georgia ranks sixth in the nation in yards per play on offense so far this year. Missouri is in the top 20 in the nation in tempo. Derek Dooley has this offense playing quickly again, and Drew Lock looks great in this new offense. Missouri is 27th in the nation in yards per play, and they'll look to push the pace here. The Georgia defense is down a notch from last year, and Missouri's defense isn't good at all. Georgia had 696 yards of total offense against Missouri last year. The final score there was 53-28 in favor of Georgia. I think both defenses are a little worse this year, and both offenses are definitely more efficient. Take the over. |
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09-22-18 | Notre Dame v. Wake Forest OVER 56 | 56-27 | Win | 100 | 115 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Wake Forest ranks third in the nation in tempo. The Demon Deacons will have their quarterback back for this game, and that should make a big difference. Their offense will become more efficient. Notre Dame's tempo ranks 35th in the country. The Fighting Irish have been disappointing on offense thus far, but they go against a Wake Forest defense that ranks 95th in the country in yards per play allowed. Notre Dame should get their running game going in a big way here. With lots of pace from each side, I think this number is several points too low. Take the over. |
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09-16-18 | Giants v. Cowboys UNDER 42.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 51 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys have a great running back in Ezekiel Elliot. Dak Prescott has a major shortage of weapons in the passing game though. Until Dallas proves they can complete something deep, I expect teams to stack the box just like Carolina did last week and force Dallas to beat them through the air. The Giants defense should much improved this season. I would expect them to get some pressure on Prescott here when he does throw. The Giants offensive line is once again a weakness. Barkley busted one big run against Jacksonville, but overall he struggled to find space. Eli Manning isn't good at quarterback at this point in his career, and he'll be under a lot of pressure here. Both of these teams are playing at a slow tempo. Dallas is especially slow. The Cowboys will be running the ball a lot and when they are going to wait so long between plays, it is a big boost for the under. Dallas has scored 10 points or less in 5 of their last 9 games. The under is 5-0 in the Cowboys last 5 games. The under is 4-0 in the Giants last 4 vs. a team with a losing record. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers v. Falcons -5.5 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 36 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Atlanta Falcons* The Atlanta Falcons are on extra rest here. Teams on extra rest in the NFL have done very well ATS in the long run. While both teams have a bunch of injuries here, I'm more concerned with Carolina's cluster injuries on the offensive line. They have four key contributors who are out on the offensive front. Atlanta definitely has the defensive front to get into the Carolina backfield a lot with the Panthers offensive line issues. The Falcons have had the Panthers number the last few seasons. Atlanta has beaten Carolina in 4 of their last 5 meetings. All of those wins came by a touchdown or more, and 3 of them were by double digits. They have outgained Carolina in each of those games. The Falcons are 9-1 ATS in Matt Ryan's home season openers. Atlanta has a bad taste in their mouths after they blew a great chance to win in Philly in week one. The Falcons are the more complete team here. Carolina's defense isn't as good without Davis, and the Falcons red zone offense isn't likely to continue to be so bad. Extra rest for the Falcons and some key matchup advantages. Take Atlanta. |
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09-16-18 | Chiefs v. Steelers -4.5 | 42-37 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Steelers* The Pittsburgh Steelers outgained the Cleveland Browns by 145 yards last week. It was the six turnovers that led to the tie. Pittsburgh isn't going to keep turning the ball over that many times. The Steelers offense has been much better at home in recent seasons. Kansas City's pass rush isn't even close to what it once was. Eric Berry is likely to miss this game, and advanced statistics show the Chiefs as one of the worst defenses in the NFL without Berry. How are the Chiefs going to slow the Steelers down here? While Kansas City won in week one, the Chargers moved the ball at will. The Chargers blew many scoring chances. Pittsburgh isn't likely to do the same. Patrick Mahomes looks like a good quarterback, but I think he will have some growing pains. The public is backing Kansas City in a huge way here. About 75% of the bets are on the underdog here. I always like fading a public underdog. Pittsburgh bounces back at home. Take the Steelers. |
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09-15-18 | Fresno State v. UCLA OVER 48.5 | 38-14 | Win | 100 | 54 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The UCLA Bruins might be without Speight here, but I like freshman Dorian Thompson-Robinson and his dual-threat ability. The Bruins will obviously play fast with Chip Kelly as their new coach. Fresno State's defensive front isn't as strong as it was a year ago. The Bulldogs won't be bad on defense, but they won't be as strong as they were a year ago. Fresno State hasn't played a good offense yet this year. The Fresno State offense will be better than it was a year ago. The Bulldogs have a veteran quarterback and a great offensive-minded head coach. Look for Fresno State to speed up their tempo some this season as well. UCLA's defense is a major weakness, and I think Fresno State can move the ball on a consistent basis here. Take the over. |
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09-15-18 | Arizona State v. San Diego State UNDER 49.5 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 44 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils picked up a huge win over Michigan State last weekend. Herm Edwards' team deserves a lot of credit for how they have started out the season. I've been most impressed with Arizona State's run defense. The Sun Devils have allowed only 1.07 yards per carry so far this year. Stuffing UTSA didn't mean too much, but Michigan State averaged only 2.33 yards per carry last weekend. Arizona State's defensive coordinator was San Diego State's defensive coordinator last year. I think that really helps them on defense this weekend. San Diego State is without their starting quarterback here. The Aztecs rank in the bottom 5 in the country in pace of play. They will run the ball a bunch here, and that will keep the clock moving. I don't think San Diego State can throw it enough to keep Arizona State's defense honest. Rocky Long's defenses seem to always be well-prepared. The Arizona State offensive line is a bit weak, and I expect San Diego State to be able to get in the backfield pretty often here and put Arizona State in 2nd and 3rd and long situations. Arizona State played so quickly last year, and they are a different team with Herm Edwards as their coach now. I don't think the market is accounting for that change enough right now. The under is 20-8-1 in San Diego State's last 29 home games. Take the under. |
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09-15-18 | Washington v. Utah +7 | 21-7 | Loss | -115 | 101 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Utah* The Utah Utes have played Washington tough the last few seasons. In 2015, they won in Washington as 2 point underdogs. They lost by 7 at home in 2016 as underdogs of 10 points. They lost last year in Washington by 3 as underdogs of 17 points. Many of you will remember last year's game where Kyle Whittingham made a couple ridiculous in-game decisions and Washington scored 10 points in the last 58 seconds to come from behind and win. Utah is 3-0 ATS against Washington in the last 3 years. Utah is always strong on the defensive line, and that is true once again this year. Whittingham's teams have always been hard to run on, and they are great at pressuring the quarterback. At Utah, Whittingham has gone 30-20 ATS as an underdog. Utah has one of the best home field advantages in college football. This is a night game and the temperature is expected to be very hot for this one. That makes the home field advantage even greater. Tyler Huntley has enough weapons around him to make this Utes offense dangerous this year. Utah will continue to have a strong defense. Given this many points at home, I have to take the Utes here. Take Utah. |
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09-15-18 | Missouri v. Purdue OVER 60 | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 122 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Missouri Tigers have a potent offense with Drew Lock at quarterback and plenty of playmakers on the outside. Missouri is playing very quickly again this year, and Purdue's defense is much weaker than it was last season. Purdue's offense is going to be better with Jeff Brohm leading the way. Brohm is a great offensive mind, and I fully expect him to be able to get the passing game going. Rondale Moore is a great weapon to have as well. With both teams pushing the pace and throwing the ball often- I see this one getting over the posted total. Take the over. |
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09-15-18 | UMass v. Florida International OVER 61.5 | 24-63 | Win | 100 | 28 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen will have a great passing attack this year. FIU's weakness on defense is their secondary. FIU has a strong offensive line. What's UMass' defensive weakness? Their defensive front is easy to run the football against. These two teams met in the final game of the season last year. FIU won that one 63-45. FIU rolled up a ridiculous 674 yards of total offense. FIU ran for 379 yards (7.7 yards per carry). UMass totaled 548 yards, and they threw for 392 yards in that one. I don't like to make too much of a game from last year, but it was the final game of the season last year, and both offenses showed they can easily exploit the weakness of the opposing defense. Even without last year's contest, I would like the over here. UMass should finish the season in the top 30 or so in pace of play this year, and FIU is right about middle of the pack in tempo. Both defenses have proven vulnerable to big plays. I see a back and forth affair here. Take the over. |
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09-15-18 | UTSA v. Kansas State UNDER 47.5 | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Kansas State relies heavily on the running game, and they rank in the bottom 15 in the country in terms of tempo. There is always a lot of running clock and long drives in Kansas State contests. UTSA lost a bunch of talent on offense from last year. The Roadrunners are going to have trouble scoring all season long. So far this year, UTSA is averaging a miserable 3.49 yards per play on the season. That is worst in Conference USA through the first two games. Both teams are better at stopping the run than the pass in this one. Take the under. |
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09-15-18 | North Texas v. Arkansas OVER 69 | 44-17 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green have a fantastic passing attack led by Mason Fine. Arkansas has some major defensive issues. They allowed a bunch of big plays against a weak Colorado State offense last weekend. North Texas should surprise a lot of people with a bunch of big passing plays here. Arkansas has a good quarterback for Chad Morris' system. The Razorbacks are looking to push the pace more and more every game. While the North Texas offense is very good, their defense is weak. North Texas struggled all year last season with giving up too many big plays. Lots of explosive plays from both sides. Take the over. |
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09-15-18 | BYU v. Wisconsin UNDER 47 | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 37 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers always rank in the bottom ten in the nation in terms of pace of play. BYU ranks on the lower end in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of running plays in this game, and with both teams letting the clock roll between plays it will certainly help the under. BYU couldn't do anything on offense against Cal last week at home. The Cougars got a fumble recovery run back for a touchdown, but had 3 points on offense until the final minute of the game. They scored a TD with less than a minute left with Cal in their prevent defense. Cal's defense is pretty good, but the Wisconsin Badgers defense is clearly stronger. I would be surprised if BYU gets much at all here. Wisconsin is a very run heavy team. They will run the ball 65-70% of the time this year. They have a great running game, but BYU's defensive strength is definitely stopping the run. The Cougars have a strong front 7. Wisconsin will get their yardage here, but I think BYU does better slowing them down than most teams do. Expect long drawn out drives for Wisconsin. A 31-10 type of game here with the under showing value. Take the under. |
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09-15-18 | Ohio v. Virginia OVER 44 | Top | 31-45 | Push | 0 | 96 h 37 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Virginia Cavaliers and Ohio Bobcats meet on Saturday. This total has been beaten down in a big way because of the Hurricane Florence threat. Even if this game is played in Virginia, I think there is some value on the over. However, multiple sources now indicate that this game will be played in Nashville at a neutral site. Beat writers for both teams have reported this. This is a game that I believe should have a total in the mid 50's given a normal weather day. When a total is this much below that number, I have to fire with a bigger play. Ohio's defense is going to be much weaker than they were a year ago. How bad could they be? Ohio allowed a whopping 645 yards to Howard in their first game. A quick tempo from the Bobcats and a solid Virginia run offense. Take the over big. |
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09-09-18 | Seahawks v. Broncos -3 | 24-27 | Push | 0 | 37 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Seahawks/Broncos ATS CASH* The Denver Broncos have a nice home field advantage thanks to the altitude to start with, but their advantage is even greater early in the season and when the temperature is warmer. Denver is 8-1-1 ATS in their last 10 games between weeks 1-4 with a temperature of 70 degrees or warmer. They are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 in that situation during week one. In this one, they play a Seattle Seahawks team that is badly banged up as they start the season. Seattle is short handed to begin with, while Denver is among the healthiest teams in the NFL. Seattle is an awful 1-14 ATS on the road in their last 15 road games in weeks 1-3. The Seahawks have been a much better team during that time frame than they are now as well. Russell Wilson has a bad offensive line in front of him and a lack of play makers on the outside. The Seahawks defense is nowhere near as strong as it was in the past either. Denver has the better defense and they now have a quarterback who is a big upgrade from the guys they have had the last couple years. Keenum should steady things for them. Take Denver here. |
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09-09-18 | Bengals +3 v. Colts | 34-23 | Win | 100 | 118 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Cincinnati Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals are 3 point underdogs to the Indianapolis Colts here. The Colts have all sorts of question marks. Andrew Luck is back and starting at quarterback, but it is hard to imagine him not being a little bit different after the major shoulder surgery and issues he has in rehab. Luck also injured his foot in a preseason game and has missed some practice time due to that. The Colts have what I believe is the worst pass defense in the NFL. The Bengals passing offense should be much improved with Tyler Eifert back on the field. John Ross is also going to get to see the field to try to stretch the defense. Green is still one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. Cincinnati's offensive line isn't a strength, but they aren't the huge weakness that the Bengals had last year after they drafted Price and picked up Cordy Glenn as well. Luck hasn't played in 2 years, and he has to know he'll need to do a lot here with the Colts defense being one of the worst in the NFL. The Bengals have a very strong defensive front, and the Colts aren't likely to be able to run the ball much here. I think Cincinnati has a good chance of winning this game outright, and I'll gladly take the field goal. Take Cincinnati. |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 92 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday in the season opener. Cleveland should be much more competitive this year. The Browns were great against the run last year, and they clearly upgraded their secondary in the offseason. Cleveland has some very nice young talent in the secondary. Pittsburgh will be without Le'Veon Bell for this one, and he has been such a big part of their success both on the ground and in the air. While Pittsburgh's defense is questionable, I don't think the Browns have the kind of weapons to expose their weaknesses all that much. The weather here looks very good for an under. The forecast calls for 20-25 mph winds and rain during this game. The winds are the key and I expect this number to drop if the forecast stays the same. The under is 11-2 in the Browns last 13 home games. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings between these two in Cleveland. Take the under. |
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09-09-18 | Bills v. Ravens UNDER 41 | 3-47 | Loss | -115 | 58 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather forecast plays a major role in this being an under play for me. Baltimore is expected to have 15-20 mph winds and steady rain on Sunday. That's a big plus for the under. It is the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon moving through, and the timing appears to be right for Baltimore to be damp and breezy during this contest. The Buffalo Bills offense should endure some real struggles this year. They have a new system and Nathan Peterman is under center. I would have expected the game plan in week one to be pretty conservative for Buffalo's offense here no matter what, but with the weather it will likely be even more conservative. The Ravens defense should be better against the run this year, and they'll load up the box in this one. Baltimore's offense is likely to be better this year, but in week one I don't expect huge things. Buffalo's defense has been pretty good at not giving up big plays, and Baltimore is likely to lean on the run more in this game than in most later in the year. Take the under. |
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09-09-18 | Jaguars v. Giants UNDER 42.5 | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 58 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants meet on Sunday afternoon in the season opener. The Giants offense will have a new look under Mike Shula as their OC. Look for the Giants to try much harder to establish the run. They ended up throwing the ball 62% of the time last year. I don't expect a repeat of that. The Giants also played at the second fastest pace in the NFL last year. That should change with Shurmur and Shula in charge. They will look to hold the ball and give their defense a break. Jacksonville's defense is clearly a top three defense in the NFL. The Jaguars have the best secondary in the NFL, and they aren't likely to give up many big plays in the passing game here. The Giants aren't good enough on the offensive line to hold this Jacksonville pass rush back either. Jacksonville ran the ball more than any other team in the league last year. That will likely be the case again this year. They will look to run the ball as much as possible and create play action spots for Bortles rather than slinging it around. Not having Marqise Lee in the passing game this year hurts this offense badly. The Giants run defense is likely to be better this year with the addition of Ogletree. The weather here is a bit questionable too. While there isn't any major rain in the forecast, there are sustained 12 mph winds here which gives the under a bit of a boost as well. Take the under. |
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09-08-18 | Cincinnati v. Miami-OH UNDER 51 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 64 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bearcats picked up a big upset victory over UCLA. Cincinnati didn't win because of their offense though. Despite going up against a weak UCLA defense, Cincinnati's offense couldn't get much done. Cincinnati averaged only 3.65 yards per play and finished with 285 total yards. The Bearcats still don't have an identity on offense. Defensively, the Bearcats have a much improved defensive line, and I think they could give the Miami offensive line trouble in this game. This game is played at Paul Brown Stadium where the Bengals played so it is a neutral site. The remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon are expected to move into Cincinnati on Saturday night. The weather forecast is calling for winds of around 15 mph and a good chance of rain especially later in this game. That could make both teams run the ball more than they typically would. Offenses who are predictable clearly help the defense in a big way. This is a big rivalry game, and last year's game was dominated by the defenses. My numbers liked this under a decent amount even without the weather being factored in. With the weather being factored in, I think this is a good value. Take the under. |
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09-08-18 | Virginia v. Indiana UNDER 51 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Indiana hosts Virginia in a Big 10 vs. ACC battle in Bloomington on Saturday night. Indiana is without their best running back in Morgan Ellison, who is suspended. Indiana has a new quarterback and I would expect the Hoosier to be a run heavy team this year behind a solid offensive line. Virginia is implementing a new offense this year after star QB Kurt Benkert moved on. They have a youngster at QB who is not a good passer. They will look to run the ball much more this year with both their mobile QB and their running backs. The problem for Virginia is their offensive line is a weakness. Indiana's defensive line is clearly the strength of their defensive unit. Virginia isn't likely to be able to run the ball on them much here. The Virginia secondary is the strength of the defense, and I don't think Indiana will try to test them very often. Neither team is likely to be effective in the passing game especially with the weather forecast. There is a 90% of chance of rain which could be heavy and 15 mph winds from the remnants of Tropical Storm Gordon. One-dimensional teams are much easier to defend. Take the under. |
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09-08-18 | Wyoming v. Missouri UNDER 52.5 | 13-40 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers have a totally different system on offense this year. Derek Dooley is the OC and they will be more of a pro-style offense with much less tempo than last year. I expect their games to be lower scoring than they were last season. The market has already moved this line down a good amount, and it is largely due to the weather. The forecast calls for 13 mph winds sustained throughout the game and some light rain. Wyoming's passing attack is virtually non-existent, and the way to beat this Missouri defense is through the air. Missouri should be strong against the run this year. Wyoming will try to run it down their throat and control the ball for as long as possible. The Wyoming defense returns its top six tacklers from a year ago. The final score in their loss to Washington State last week is a little misleading, since Washington State scored 21 points in the last 11 minutes of the game. Washington State had only 394 yards of total offense. I like both defensive lines here and with questionable weather and slower pace from both I'll take the under.  |
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09-08-18 | Memphis v. Navy UNDER 72 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 117 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* It's not easy to play a Navy under after the way their defense looked against Hawaii last week, but at this number I have to. Navy plays at the second slowest tempo of any team in the country (only Army is slower). They are going to run the football on more than 90% of their plays this year. The Memphis offense will be good this year, but they won't be as explosive as they were a year ago with Riley Ferguson at quarterback. Memphis will look to run the football more often. Though Memphis will still play quickly, I do expect them to be a bit slower than last year. The Navy secondary is the weakness of their defense and Hawaii had the perfect scheme to take advantage of that. Navy is much better defensively on the front seven. I also feel that Navy is a very well coached team and I would be surprised if this unit doesn't show a lot of fight and perform better this week. These two teams have played each of the last 4 years, and none of those games have gone over this total. There is some recency bias in this total. I'll go under this high number. Take the under. |
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09-08-18 | Mississippi State v. Kansas State UNDER 56.5 | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 118 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have a tremendous defensive line. That should make it very hard for Kansas State to do much on offense here. I don't see Kansas State as a team that will be able to throw the ball much this season. They will look to run constantly and the Bulldogs have a big edge on the defensive front. Kansas State typically does a good job on the defensive front, and I think they can hold their own enough to slow down the Bulldogs rushing game enough here. Both of these teams will be much slower than the average team in terms of tempo, and there should be a lot of moving clock in this one with a bunch of rushing attempts. I believe this number should be closer to 50. Take the under. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia Tech -3 v. South Florida | 38-49 | Loss | -114 | 92 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Georgia Tech* My power ratings suggest this line should be -6, and we are sitting on the key number of 3 and are short of another pretty important number of 4. I'll take the Yellow Jackets here. Georgia Tech will run the ball early and often with the triple option here. Georgia Tech's offensive numbers were down a bit last year, but Paul Johnson's teams have been very consistent offensively in the past, and I expect a quick bounce back for this offense. The Yellow Jackets defense is almost certainly going to be better after they brought in defensive coordinator Nate Woody from Appalachian State. He did a tremendous job being aggressive with the App State defense, and I think the much more aggressive style will help this unit at Georgia Tech. The South Florida Bulls have a glaring weakness on the defensive line. The front seven in general is much weaker than last year. That's not a good problem to have when you are going up against a triple option attack. Quinton Flowers did it all for this USF offense. While I believe there are still some playmakers here, it is obvious that this offense is weaker than a year ago. The running game is likely to be subpar this year. Lay the short number. Take Georgia Tech. |
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09-01-18 | Navy -10 v. Hawaii | 41-59 | Loss | -106 | 27 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Navy* The Navy Midshipmen would have been favored by 16.5 or 17 points were it not for last week's impressive showing by Hawaii at Colorado State. A full touchdown reaction is too much here. We don't know how good Colorado State will be, and they had been without head coach Mike Bobo for a while before that initial contest. Hawaii's run defense is likely to be one of the 10 or 15 worst in the country this year. What does Navy do? They run the ball over and over again. Navy's triple option attack led by Malcolm Perry should be even better this year. Perry is a tremendous runner and makes good decision with the triple option. He should have a huge day here. The running back position is very deep at Navy, and they'll stay fresh all game long. Don't be surprised if Navy averages six yards per carry or more on a bunch of attempts. Hawaii's quarterback play was great last weekend with McDonald at the helm, but he's still inexperienced and we should expect some mistakes from him. Navy is a proven commodity. We know they are going to be a high quality team. Hawaii played one good game and they are getting too much love here. Take Navy. |
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09-01-18 | UTSA v. Arizona State UNDER 54 | 7-49 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Arizona State Sun Devils have a new offensive coordinator and a new head coach this year. I think they are likely to play a little slower on offense. Arizona State also has a new defensive coordinator in Danny Gonzales and he has implemented the 3-3-5 defense that he led at San Diego State. I think that will help the Sun Devils improve on this side of the ball. UTSA lost a ton on offense. They return only 4 starters this year. They scored 9 points or less in three of their last four games last season. The Roadrunners play at a very slow tempo, and the offense is likely to be very weak this year. UTSA is coached by a defensive minded guy in Frank Wilson. Wilson has improved this defense in a big way, and I think they will be solid yet again. Take the under. |
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09-01-18 | SMU v. North Texas OVER 71 | 23-46 | Loss | -107 | 24 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs beat the North Texas Mean Green 54-32 last year. Both of these teams were racking up big gain after big gain. Both SMU and North Texas ranked in the top 40 in the country in pace of play last year. SMU will likely play even quicker under Sonny Dykes this year, and North Texas has a veteran quarterback in Mason Fine, which likely means an even faster pace as he knows the system very well now. Mason Fine is going to put up some big numbers this year. North Texas has some great receivers and Fine has all the tools. SMU is weak in the secondary and Fine should pick them apart here. North Texas allowed 16 plays of 50 yards or more last year. The Mean Green defense are aggressive and can force some turnovers, but the trade off is allowing a bunch of big plays. Only one team in the country allowed more plays of 50 yards or more (Tulsa). SMU should have big play ability with a veteran at quarterback like Hicks. The weather is forecast to be hot and humid on Saturday in Texas. Warm weather has been a nice boost to the over in past years. The offenses have big advantages in this one, and both teams will pass heavy so there will be more clock stoppages. Back and forth. Take the over. |
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09-01-18 | Washington v. Auburn UNDER 48.5 | 16-21 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Washington/Auburn Moneymaker* The Auburn Tigers return only one starter on the offensive line from last year. Auburn must also replace their top two running backs from a year ago. The Auburn running game that was terrific last year will be down several notches this year. Washington's defensive front is likely to make it very difficult for Auburn to get anything going on the ground here. Auburn has a good quarterback in Stidham, but he'll be under pressure often in this one, and Washington's secondary is one of the best in the country. Washington likes to lean on their running game in big games. Auburn's defensive front is one of the four or five best in the country. Washington's offensive line is at a clear disadvantage here. Jake Browning will have to make plays in the passing game, and last year he was inconsistent especially against top defenses and away from home. Washington ranked in the bottom 20 in the country in tempo last year, and I expect them to be fairly slow again this year. Auburn was slower than the average team as well. Both teams are run heavy and the clock should keep ticking a lot in this game. A hard hitting close game. Take the under. |
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09-01-18 | Washington State v. Wyoming +2.5 | 41-19 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Wyoming* The Wyoming Cowboys have an elite defense. Their defensive front is going to be a big problem for just about everyone on their schedule. Washington State's single biggest weakness is on the offensive line. Expect Wyoming to control the line of scrimmage. Washington State is in an odd situation. They lost their star defensive coordinator (Alex Grinch) in the offseason. They lost their best defender in Hercules Mata'afa as well. Mike Leach tried to leave in the offseason, but then ends up back with the team. Leach has been poor in week one of the season in the past as well. Leach is 1-5 ATS in game one at Washington State. Wyoming has a tremendous home field advantage. They also have an edge in that they have already played a game. Washington State has big changes, a new quarterback and a weak offensive line. I think Wyoming wins this one. Craig Bohl is 22-14-1 ATS as an underdog, and he has the stronger team in the trenches. Take Wyoming. |
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08-31-18 | San Diego State v. Stanford OVER 48.5 | 10-31 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB TGIF Total DOMINATION* The Stanford Cardinal aren't the same team they were a few years ago. Stanford was known for being tremendous on the defensive front a few years ago. They were consistently piling up 45 or 50 sacks. They were holding teams to 2.9, 3.0, and 3.1 yards per carry. Not anymore. Stanford allowed 4.6 ypc last year, and they had only 32 sacks. Last year's defense was easily the worst in the past six years for Stanford, and the defensive line for Stanford is a big question mark this year. Stanford hasn't had a really good quarterback since Andrew Luck was here, but KJ Costello should do very well for them. Costello came on in a big way at the end of last season. He had 14 TD's and only 4 picks last year. As Costello took over at QB later last year, this offense immediately started putting up better numbers. They scored 30 in an upset win over Washington. They put up 38 against Notre Dame. They scored 37 against a good TCU defense in their bowl game. San Diego State's offensive line is better than Stanford's defensive front. Washington will be a good running back for the Aztecs this year. Chapman has experience at quarterback as well. They should be able to move the ball here. Bryce Love ran wild against San Diego State last year, and he should be great again here. Stanford should run the ball really well here. It's a low total where the public is actually taking the under. That's fine with me. The perception of Stanford and San Diego State as defensive teams has this total set at a low number.I'll take the contrarian over here. Take the over. |
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08-30-18 | New Mexico State v. Minnesota UNDER 47 | 10-48 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies offense couldn't get a first down for nearly two quarters at home against Wyoming last week. This Aggies offense was fortunate to get 7 points last game, and now they face a Minnesota team with a strong defensive front. New Mexico State's weakness is their offensive line. Minnesota ranked 120th out of 130 teams in the country in tempo last year. They have a freshman quarterback, and they are very likely to want to keep things vanilla in this game. New Mexico State should be ready for the run game here. New Mexico State's defense improved a bunch last year, and I think they will be pretty good again this year. Against a one-dimensional offense they should hold their own here. New Mexico State played quickly last year, but they appeared to be wanting to slow things down a bit this year with a new quarterback and running back. Winds of about 15 mph are forecast for this game, and that's enough to change the game some and help the under as well. Take the under. |
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02-04-18 | Eagles v. Patriots OVER 48.5 | 41-33 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
*2 Star NFL Super Bowl Totals Takedown* The Philadelphia Eagles offense should be able to gash the New England Patriots for some big plays here. Nick Foles isn't great, but he's a good backup and is up against a Patriots defense that is average. The Eagles have a strong offensive line and they should get a solid push in the running game. The Patriots passing game should work really well here. The Eagles don't have a great pass rush, and they have struggled at defending both slot receivers and tight ends. The Patriots have the best tight end and best slot receiver in the NFL. Add in the Pats running backs ability to catch the ball out of the backfield and we should see a big day from Tom Brady. Remember, this Patriots offense hasn't been this healthy in a long time. This game is played in a dome, so weather is no factor at all. Both teams have good kickers as well. Take the over. |
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01-21-18 | Vikings v. Eagles UNDER 39 | 7-38 | Loss | -102 | 26 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings and Philadelphia Eagles meet in Philadelphia to decide who will play in the Super Bowl and represent the NFC. Minnesota ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed on the year. The Vikings have one of the best defensive minds in football as their head coach. I think they'll have a great game plan ready defensively. Philadelphia's defensive front is excellent with Fletcher Cox leading the way. This Eagles defense played great in the home underdog role last week, and I expect a strong effort again. Both of these teams play at a pace slower than the league average. Both teams have backup quarterbacks at the helm, and I expect pretty vanilla game plans on offense. This sets up as a field position game, and a game where there are likely to be a lot of field goal attempts rather than touchdowns. Both of these defenses have been good at limiting touchdowns in key spots. This is a low under, but it is low for a reason. Expect a tight low scoring game. Take the under. |
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01-13-18 | Falcons v. Eagles UNDER 41.5 | 10-15 | Win | 100 | 60 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have Nick Foles at quarterback instead of Carson Wentz for this one, and that's clearly a big step down. The Atlanta Falcons offense hasn't been nearly as dominant this year as it was last season. They miss Kyle Shanahan as their offensive coordinator. Atlanta has been an under machine of late. All six of their last six games have gone under. Five of them have been under this low total. The Falcons defense is one of the most improved in the NFL. The Eagles rank 8th in yards per play allowed this year. Their defensive front should get pressure on Matt Ryan who is playing behind a banged up offensive front. The weather here could be a real problem. Winds are expected to be about 15 mph during the game with gusts of 25 mph. That changes the game and it certainly helps the under. Look for more conservative play calling and the defenses will load up the box more often. Take the under. |
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01-08-18 | Alabama v. Georgia UNDER 46 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs played in a really high scoring game against Oklahoma, but I don't think we'll see anything like that in the title game. Georgia plays at the 127th ranked tempo out of 130 teams. Alabama's tempo is 95th out of 130. Georgia is playing at an extremely slow pace, and Alabama prefers to play slowly as well. Georgia runs the ball on 71% of their plays from scrimmage for the season. Alabama runs it on 66% of their plays from scrimmage. Two teams pounding the ball and using the clock is ideal for an under as long as you have defenses that can stop the run. Adjusted for strength of schedule played- Alabama's run defense ranks first in the country in run defense. Georgia ranks ninth. These two secondaries are both excellent as well, and neither of these passing games are particularly dynamic especially when it comes to creating big plays. This should be a hard hitting contest where the under holds value. Take the under. |
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01-07-18 | Bills v. Jaguars -8.5 | 3-10 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Bills/Jaguars ATS MONEY* The Buffalo Bills ranked 20th in yards per play allowed this year. Buffalo's defense relied on takeaways. When they didn't get takeaways, they allowed a lot of points. Buffalo's run defense has been a particular area of concern. The Bills are allowing 4.3 yards per rush (25th in the NFL). In their last 3 games, they have allowed 4.8 yards per carry. Jacksonville has allowed 4.3 yards per carry on the year as well, but the Jaguars run defense has been much better in recent weeks. They are allowing only 3.5 yards per carry in their last three games. Marcell Dareus was traded from Buffalo to Jacksonville in the middle of the year. The Bills run defense got much worse after that, and the Jaguars run defense got much better. LeSean McCoy is a game time decision here for the Bills. If he plays, he is likely to be at far less than 100 percent. The Bills don't have a good backup option at RB. Tyrod Taylor is likely to be under pressure quickly all game here. The Bills have the 31st ranked pass protection unit. The Jaguars are 2nd in pass rush. I don't see Buffalo scoring much at all here. I'll lay the points with the much better defense and the healthier team at home. Take the Jaguars. |
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01-06-18 | Falcons +6 v. Rams | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 25 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Falcons/Rams ATS CASH* The Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams meet on Saturday night in LA. There is very little home field advantage for the Rams here. The Rams are a team I've been high on this year, but I think they are getting too much respect against a veteran Atlanta team back in the playoffs after blowing a lead in the Super Bowl last year. Atlanta isn't quite as dynamic on offense this year, but they are still second in the NFL in yards per play on the season. The Rams have had trouble stopping the run this year, and I expect Atlanta to be able to run the ball. Kayvon Webster being out is a big problem for the Rams. The Falcons have too many good wide receivers, and I expect a guy like Mohammed Sanu to have a good game here. The Falcons defense is better than it was a year ago. I think they'll hold their own in this spot. Greg Zuerlein is a huge loss for the Rams. He is one of the best kickers in the NFL, and his absence hits the Rams special teams hard. Atlanta has been here before. The Rams are a good team, but this is their first time here. I won't be surprised if the Rams win either, but I expect a close game all the way. I'll grab the points. Take Atlanta. |
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01-06-18 | Titans v. Chiefs OVER 44.5 | 22-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs started the season by dominating on offense through being more aggressive with play calling. Kansas City has a ton of skill position weapons, and they were utilizing them well. They got cautious again in the middle of the season, and they slumped. Late in the season, they changed play callers and things improved again. I expect some more aggressive play calling here. The Titans secondary has been a major weakness down the stretch. I expect Kansas City to be able to get some big plays through the air. Kansas City is second in the NFL in yards per play this year. The Kansas City defense isn't good. Eric Berry is a huge loss for this defense, and the Chiefs allowed 5.6 yards per play on the year, which was 26th in the NFL. Marcus Mariota does have some weapons on the outside and if they get behind which they likely will here, look for some more aggressive play calling from the Titans as well. Both defenses have been vulnerable to big plays, and this total is set at a low number. Take the over. |
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01-01-18 | Alabama v. Clemson +3 | 24-6 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Alabama/Clemson CASH* The Alabama Crimson Tide got into the playoff at spot number four. There has been a lot of talk since that time that the Crimson Tide are the team to beat. I think people are doubting Clemson too much here. Clemson played a tough schedule in the ACC, which is a better conference than the SEC is at this point. The Tigers tested themselves multiple times on the road in tough environments. They blew out Louisville on the road. They won easily at Virginia Tech. Clemson's defense is a little bit better this year than it was a year ago. Clemson has the best defensive line in the country, and they can really take over games. Kelly Bryant isn't Deshaun Watson, but he has been good for Clemson. Bryant is a very mobile quarterback, and Alabama has in general struggled a bit with mobile quarterbacks in recent seasons. Alabama played the 57th toughest strength of schedule this year according to Sagarin. Clemson's schedule ranks 7th toughest. Clemson is battle tested, and there will be no lack of motivation. Dabo Swinney has been the best coach in the country with extra time to prepare. Swinney's has outcoached Urban Meyer and Nick Saban on this stage before. Clemson should be ready to go. Dabo Swinney's teams are a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog in bowl games. Clemson has won 6 of those games straight up. I'll take the points here and I think Clemson will win the game outright, so a small side bet on the moneyline makes sense. Take Clemson. |
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12-31-17 | Raiders +7 v. Chargers | 10-30 | Loss | -115 | 17 h 60 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Los Angeles Chargers have no home field advantage. The Raiders are a team that typically travels fairly well, and this is a divisional rival they are up against. Oakland has shown fight down the stretch, and I expect them to continue to work hard here, especially since they have a chance to hurt a divisional foe. The Raiders and Chargers matchups have been decided by 3 points or less in each of the last four meetings. In fact, 7 of the last 10 meetings between these two teams have been decided by a margin of 3 points or less. The Chargers have had red zone trouble on offense this year, and Hunter Henry being out makes that even worse. The Raiders rushing attack has been good of late, and the Chargers are last in the NFL in rushing yards allowed. Grab the full touchdown here. The road team is a perfect 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings. The Raiders are 3-0 ATS in their last 3 following a loss. A 9-0 angle. Take Oakland. |
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12-31-17 | Redskins v. Giants UNDER 40 | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The New York Giants host the Washington Redskins in a game where both teams fell far short of expectations for the season. There are no playoff implications here. When you look back in the last ten years, teams who are not going to be part of the playoffs meeting in week 17 has been slightly positive for the under. The weather here should play a major role. The temperature is expected to be about 15 degrees during this game. The sustained winds will be at 12-14 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph. It's going to be a nasty day, and that should make the two offenses more predictable. The important part here is if the two teams have to run, neither of them are any good at it. I expect a bunch of punts in this one. Both offensive lines are badly banged up, and neither quarterback has any of their star receivers left. The under is 9-3 in the last 12 meetings between these two teams. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | Wisconsin v. Miami-FL UNDER 45.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -108 | 231 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Miami Florida Hurricanes defense has been tremendous this year. Miami's defensive front has been excellent, and that should help them against a good Wisconsin running game. Wisconsin ranks 11th in the nation in most runs as a percentage of their overall play selection. The Badgers are going to try to run the ball early and often here. Miami is likely to be able to at least slow them down quite a bit here. Miami is allowing 3.53 yards per carry this year. In their last six games, they are allowing less than 2.7 yards per carry. The Miami offense scored only 17 points in their last two games. Miami has relied on turnovers much of the year, and their offense is too reliant on the passing game. Miami hasn't been able to run the ball very well. This Wisconsin defense is third in the nation in yards per play allowed. Miami plays at an average tempo. Wisconsin is the third slowest team in the country in terms of pace of play. The Badgers will have some long clock eating drives that should help the under a lot. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 bowl games. The under is 45-20 in Miami's last 65 non-conference games. The under is 7-3 in Wisconsin's last 10 non-conference games. Take the under. |
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12-30-17 | Iowa State +4 v. Memphis | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 56 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Iowa State* The Iowa State Cyclones have played the 24th toughest schedule in the country this year according to Sagarin's Football ratings. Memphis has played the 86th toughest schedule. Iowa State already went on the road to Oklahoma and won 38-31. They also blew out Texas Tech on the road. The Cyclones beat TCU at home as well, and Iowa State has proven they are fully capable of playing with anyone in the country. Memphis beat UCLA at home in a very close game for their signature win this year. UCLA wasn't very good though, and the Tigers face an Iowa State team here that is definitely better than UCLA. Iowa State's defense is by far the stronger defense in this contest. When I can get more than a field goal with the better defense in a bowl game, I'll usually take it. This game is at Memphis, but as I mentioned before Iowa State has been excellent away from home this season. I think Iowa State has a good chance at winning outright. The Cyclones are battle tested and they are a dangerous team. Take Iowa State. |
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12-30-17 | Louisville -6.5 v. Mississippi State | 27-31 | Loss | -115 | 56 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Louisville* The Louisville Cardinals had a really poor showing in their bowl game last year against LSU. I think this group of seniors who have led the Louisville football program to some very impressive achievements in recent seasons are hungry to make things right in the bowl game this year. Louisville ranks first in the nation in rushing offensive efficiency when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Lamar Jackson is obviously the big reason for this, but the running backs are solid as well. The passing game gets a bunch of big gainers, and Mississippi State is without a starting cornerback for this one. Mississippi State's Nick Fitzgerald is out here with an injury, and he was the star of this show. Without Fitzgerald, this offense is a shell of its former self. Louisville's defensive weakness is defending the pass, but I don't see the Bulldogs being able to take advantage now. With Dan Mullen leaving town, Mississippi State is in a very odd situation here. I see this as a game where the Bulldogs have a significant chemistry disadvantage. Take Louisville. |
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12-28-17 | Michigan State -1.5 v. Washington State | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Bowl System SUPER Play* The Michigan State Spartans are very well coached. Mark Dantonio is a guy that rarely gets outcoached. Mike Leach is an innovative coach, but he's also 4-8 ATS in bowl games. Michigan State is a defensive minded team, and I expect them to have a good game plan ready for this Washington State offense. Washington State throws the ball 70% of the time, which is the most out of 130 teams in FBS. This makes them awfully one dimensional. The real problem here is Washington State is without two of their top three wide receivers for this game. Luke Falk has already been far more inconsistent this year, and now he's without two of his top receiving options. Michigan State has played the 14th ranked strength of schedule according to Sagarin's ratings. Washington State has played the 38th toughest schedule. This game fits a system on defensive minded teams that have value in bowl games. Here are the factors. -The team must allow 4.85 yards per play or less (Mich State allows 4.79) -The team must allow 3.7 yards per rush or less (Mich State allows 3.1) -The team must have covered 60% or less of their games ATS this season (MSU is at 58%) -The spread must be no higher than -4.5 -The total of the game must be 54 or lower How good has this system done in bowl games? It is a whopping 62-23 ATS (73%) in the last 10 years. Michigan State fits the system. Take Michigan State.  |
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12-27-17 | Missouri v. Texas OVER 60.5 | 16-33 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Texas Bowl Total DOMINATION* The Texas Longhorns and Missouri Tigers both like to push the pace. Texas played at the 35th fastest tempo out of 130 teams in the country. Missouri played at the second fastest tempo of anyone in the country this season. The Missouri offense is based a lot on timing, and early in the season their timing wasn't down yet. As Drew Lock and the rest of this unit got things down pat, the numbers they put up were massive. Missouri hasn't scored less than 45 points in any of their last six games. Texas' defense is very good, but they will be without several key players here. Chris Nelson won't play on the defensive front. DeShon Elliot won't play in the secondary. Holton Hill has been out for the last few weeks at a corner spot, and he's out again here. The Texas offense finally has two healthy quarterbacks, and this Missouri defense doesn't impress me. Missouri has allowed 6.4 yards per play or more on five occasions this year. With both teams playing at this kind of pace, this isn't a particularly high total. Take the over. |
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12-27-17 | Purdue v. Arizona OVER 65.5 | 38-35 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats have been an offensive juggernaut since Khalil Tate took over at quarterback. How good have they been? They haven't scored less than 28 points in any game he started. They have scored 45 points or more in 5 of the 8 games Tate started. Purdue has some good defensive numbers on the season as a whole, but they didn't play very many good offenses. Purdue plays in the side of the Big Ten where most teams want to grind it out (Nebraska, Iowa, Minnesota, Northwestern for example) and thus Purdue had a bunch of low scoring games. They did allow 35 points and 524 points to Louisville in the season opener. Purdue likes to play quickly, and I don't see a Jeff Brohm coached team shying away from a high scoring fast paced game. Arizona will play fast and look to get into a shootout. Purdue hasn't been in them this year, but Arizona's defense is bad enough that Purdue should put up a lot of points here. Arizona's last eight games have all easily gone past this total. In fact, they have all been 72 points or higher. Arizona is first in the nation in yards per carry. The Wildcats defense ranks 93rd in the country in yards per play allowed at 6.03. Take the over. |
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12-27-17 | Boston College v. Iowa -2.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 16 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Pinstripe Bowl POWER Play* The Iowa Hawkeyes played the fifth toughest schedule in the country according to Sagarin. Boston College played the 15th toughest schedule in the country. Iowa was able to crush Ohio State in one of the biggest surprises of the season, and that showed me a lot about their potential upside. Boston College is a team that plays very hard, but in their current state I see their upside as clearly lower than Iowa. Boston College is without their starting quarterback (Brown) in this one. They are also expected to be without their best defensive player (Landry). Iowa hasn't won a bowl game in the past seven years. Kirk Ferentz was known for being a good bowl coach up until recent years, and he is actually still 8-6 ATS in bowl games. The quotes from Iowa's seniors show a lot of motivation to finish the season with a win and get that bowl trophy that has eluded them in recent years. Boston College got a 36-30 win over Maryland last year in a bowl game. Iowa is the more balanced defense, and they have the higher upside. I think they'll show up ready to go in this spot. This game fits a long-term system that has been money. Taking a team that is covering at a clip of less than 50% for the season (45% for Iowa) against a team that has covered at a 60% clip or higher (72% for BC). In the system, the team you are backing must have a better yards per play allowed figured as well. Iowa has allowed 5.09 per play. Boston College has allowed 5.43. This system is 42-9 ATS in the last 53 contests when the team we are backing is either a dog or favored by 7 points or less. Iowa fits the system. Take Iowa. |
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12-24-17 | Houston v. Fresno State UNDER 49.5 | 27-33 | Loss | -110 | 112 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Fresno State Bulldogs defense was tremendous this year. This team was one of the biggest surprises of the season, and their massive improvement on defense was the key. Fresno State is accustomed to playing in Hawaii, and I think they will be ready to play here. Houston's offense was really inconsistent this year. The Cougars put up some big numbers on bad defenses in their conference. Houston also plays a bunch of teams that play at a very fast tempo in the American Athletic Conference. Fresno State won't play at that pace here. When Houston has been outside of their conference, the under has had value of late. I think that makes sense because the Cougars run up big numbers on teams like East Carolina in the AAC, but their totals are generally too high in non-conference games. There isn't one area in this game where the offense holds the advantage (pass offenses and run offenses vs. their opposition). The Houston run defense is dominant and Fresno State hasn't consistent at all in the passing attack this year. The under is 5-0 in Fresno's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Houston's last 5 non-conference games. A 10-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-24-17 | Broncos +3.5 v. Redskins | 11-27 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Washington Redskins are as banged up as anyone in the NFL. Washington is missing so many key players on both sides of the ball. Kirk Cousins is playing behind a beat up offensive line, and the team's best skill position players are all out. Washington has been outgained in 7 of their last 9 games. They were badly outplayed by Arizona last week, but the Cardinals mishaps in the red zone allowed the Redskins to win 20-15. This Redskins team simply isn't very good right now. They are up against a Denver team that has a top three defense in the NFL. Denver's defense has dominated in their last two games, and it wouldn't surprise me a bit if the Broncos shut down the Washington offense completely here. Denver's offense was better last week, and Brock Osweiler has been making better choices with the football. Vance Joseph has talked about how important it is to him to get CJ Anderson 1,000 yards on the ground, and I think Anderson can have success in this game. I expect Denver to win this game, but I'll gladly take the 3.5 points. Take Denver. |
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12-24-17 | Rams v. Titans +7 | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 32 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the Titans* The Tennessee Titans lost in heartbreaking fashion last week to San Francisco. Yes, it was a tough way to lose for a team that needs to win to get in the playoffs. Still, the Titans are right here in position to get into the playoffs if they just win games. Tennessee has lost only once this year at home. The Titans defense has played much better on their home field, and Marcus Mariota has been a different quarterback when playing at home as well. I like the Rams, but I think perception of this team has finally gotten too high. The Rams are coming off a 42-7 blowout win at Seattle last week. There is plenty of recency bias built into this number. That was certainly an impressive showing by the Rams, but Seattle couldn't get out of their own way in that game. Tennessee needs this game badly, and they have a strong edge in the run game here. I think the Titans run the ball well here against a Rams defense that has been bad all year against the run. Take the Titans. |
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12-24-17 | Chargers v. Jets UNDER 43 | 14-7 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Los Angeles Chargers take on the New York Jets on Sunday. Bryce Petty will start for the Jets. Petty was shaky last week in New Orleans, and I certainly don't trust him to be good against an excellent Chargers pass rush. The Jets offensive front is a clear weakness, and the Chargers led by Joey Bosa should be in the backfield a lot here. The Chargers offense has been able to move the ball this year, but their red zone performance has been terrible. It is partially because of poor play calling in key spots. An inability to run on short distance downs has hurt too. The Jets have still been trying hard on defense, and this isn't the easiest of spots for the Chargers after an important loss at Kansas City last week. The Chargers have been a good under team all year, and against a Jets team that is likely to play it conservative on offense with an inexperienced quarterback, I like the value on the under. Take the under. |
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12-23-17 | Appalachian State +7.5 v. Toledo | 34-0 | Win | 100 | 158 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Appalachian State* The Appalachian State Mountaineers beat the Toledo Rockets last year in a bowl game. It's rare to see two teams play for a second straight year. This line is inflated. Some would say that it deserves to be inflated because Toledo has revenge to play for here. I disagree. Appalachian State has a lot of veterans on their team, and this team is going to be highly motivated again as well. I see no motivational edge. The MAC is 22-34 ATS in their last 56 bowl games. It's rare to see a MAC team as a big favorite in a bowl game, and I'm glad to fade them in that spot. Additionally, this is a spot where we have an Appalachian State team that wasn't very good ATS this year, but they are rounding into form late in the year. Toledo is without star wide receiver Cody Thompson here. That's a big blow to their offense. The Rockets have struggled to stop the run all year. Appalachian State ran all over them last year. I don't see why they won't again in this one. Getting the much better running team and more than a touchdown against a MAC team? Sign me up. Take Appalachian State. |
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12-23-17 | Colts v. Ravens UNDER 41 | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Saturday Total Domination* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been very good this year. They have consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL in yards per play this season. Indianapolis' offense ranks last in the NFL in yards per play in their last three games. The Colts are averaging only 4.0 yards per play during that time. I don't see them getting much going here either. Baltimore's offense has been better in recent weeks, but they have been best at running the ball, and the Colts run defense is pretty decent. The weather should play a factor here. There is expected to be rain and wind of about 12-15 mph with gusts of 20-25 mph during this game. That's significant enough to make both teams more conservative in their play calling. I see Baltimore getting a lead and then being content to run the ball and use the clock. Take the under. |
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12-18-17 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 48.5 | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Tampa Bay Bucs will be without a bunch of key players on defense here. You could make a solid argument that the two best players on this defense are Lavonte David and Gerald McCoy. Both of them are out for this one. Hargreaves is a top corner for them and he will miss this game as well. Atlanta's offense has been great of late. The Falcons are averaging 6.3 yards per play in their last three contests. They moved the ball at will against Tampa Bay in their first meeting, and Tampa Bay is even more short-handed on defense this time around. Jameis Winston is healthy now, and the Bucs offense is a solid 13th in the NFL in yards per play. In a primetime spot, I expect Tampa Bay's offense to get their yards and points as well. The over is 10-0-1 in the Falcons last 11 games vs. a team with a losing record. Take the over. |
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12-17-17 | Titans +2 v. 49ers | 23-25 | Push | 0 | 43 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the Titans* San Francisco has certainly been better the last couple weeks since changing quarterbacks. Still, this is a line that gives an awful lot of credit to a 3-10 team who has very little home field advantage. Marcus Mariota had a terrible game last week and I think this is a good bounce back spot for him. This is a game the Titans really need to win to right the ship. The Titans defense is an underrated unit. Tennessee ranks 4th in the NFL in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. I see this as an overreaction to the last couple weeks. We will look to take advantage of some recency bias. San Francisco is 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. The 49ers are 5-15 ATS versus a team with a winning record.  Take the Titans. |
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12-17-17 | Rams v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | 42-7 | Loss | -103 | 13 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Seattle Seahawks host the LA Rams in a game that means a lot to both teams. You can expect both teams to be highly motivated in this one. The more important the game- the better it is for the under, especially in the regular season. A big reason why I like this one is the weather. Seattle is expected to receive steady rain through this game, and wind will accompany it. The winds are expected to be 10-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That's enough to change the way this game is played. The Seahawks running attack isn't good at all. The Rams can run the ball some, but the strength of the Seahawks defense now is their run defense. These teams have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. In the last three games between these two one team has had 10 points or fewer. The under is 5-0 in the last 5 meetings in Seattle. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings. The under is 4-0 in the Seahawks last 4 vs a divisional foe. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
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12-17-17 | Packers v. Panthers -140 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 43 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Oddsmaker ERROR* Aaron Rodgers is a tremendous quarterback, and he makes this Green Bay team tons better, but I think this is a difficult spot for the Packers. The Panthers have an elite pass rush, and the Packers offensive line ranks among the three worst in the NFL in protecting the quarterback. That means Rodgers is going to be under pressure a bunch here and he'll be taking shots. He isn't likely to want to scramble around much here, and that is part of what makes him so great. The Panthers running game has started working of late. Cam Newton has gotten more involved in the running game, and that has been a huge key to this team's success of late. Green Bay's defense is allowing 5.6 yards per play. This is a unit that simply isn't very good. While Rodgers is going to make this team a lot better, he can't do everything for them. The oddsmakers are disrespecting the Panthers here. This isn't an easy matchup for Green Bay, and Rodgers is amazing, but he will be tested in a big way against a good secondary and great pass rush. With the heavy juice on the -2.5 right now, I choose to take the moneyline instead. I see Carolina taking care of business at home here. Take Carolina. |
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12-17-17 | Cardinals +4 v. Redskins | 15-20 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Washington Redskins have nothing to play for at this point. Washington showed promise early in the season, but injuries derailed this team. The offensive line is banged up and Kirk Cousins is without his three best skill position players on offense. This leaves Cousins to do way too much and here he'll be up against an excellent secondary. Arizona is giving up only 4.9 yards per carry on the season. The Cardinals have done a good job grinding out close victories of late. While the offense is nothing special, I do think they can get enough done against a Washington defense that gives up 5.6 yards per play. The Redskins are 11-28-2 ATS in their last 41 home games versus a team with a losing record. I don't think the Redskins have much motivation here. Grab the points. Take Arizona. |
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12-17-17 | Ravens v. Browns OVER 40 | 27-10 | Loss | -112 | 40 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle Crusher* Both the Baltimore Ravens and the Cleveland Browns are much improved on offense from earlier this season. Alex Collins has turned into a nice weapon for the Baltimore offense and that has taken some pressure off of Joe Flacco. On the Cleveland side, the Browns have a strong group of wide receivers now with Coleman and Gordon both healthy. The Browns haven't been very good in the red zone in recent weeks but their yards per play numbers suggest drastic improvement. This total is set awfully low. Baltimore's defense was on the field an extremely long time against Pittsburgh last weekend. There could definitely be some tired bodies on that side of the ball for the Ravens. Baltimore's offense has been much more aggressive in the last few weeks and they should be able to hit some long gainers against this Browns defense. The over is 6-0 in the Ravens last 6 games in the month of December. The over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two. A 10-0 angle. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Middle Tennessee State v. Arkansas State OVER 59 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 293 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves rank fourth in the nation in pace of play. Arkansas State is going to get off a lot of snaps and quickly. MTSU likes to play quickly as well, especially with Brent Stockstill back under center for the team. Both defenses are better at stopping the run than the pass, but both of these offenses are pass heavy. Look for both offenses to take advantage of weak secondaries in this one. Arkansas State has shown on multiple occasions that they can get involved in some really high scoring games. MTSU now has their star quarterback Stockstill back, and they finished the season scoring 30 points or more in each of their last four games. I see this being a back and forth affair with both offenses moving it through the air with ease. Take the over. |
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12-16-17 | Bears v. Lions OVER 44 | 10-20 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Saturday Totals SMASHER* The Detroit Lions have played 6 straight games that have gone over this total. Eight of their last nine have gone over this number. Detroit's defense ranks second to last in the NFL in total defense in the last eight games. Chicago's offense has been bad for much of the year, but the Bears broke out with a terrific offensive performance in Cincinnati last week. The thinking here is John Fox will likely be a little more aggressive in the play calling after a good showing. Chicago ran the ball at will against Detroit in the first matchup. Matt Stafford has been very good against the Bears. This game is being played inside the dome, so there is no weather to contend in this game. Stafford threw for 299 yards on 31 passes in the first game against Chicago. This is a low number for a Detroit game, and I'm siding with the over. Take the over in this one. |
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12-16-17 | Marshall v. Colorado State OVER 56 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 289 h 50 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams are so efficient on offense. They rank 24th in scoring efficiency this year. They are 14th in the nation in yards per play. Gallup is one of the best receivers in the country. They have a strong offensive line as well. Marshall's defense was good this year, but they didn't face many good offenses. They are up against the best or second best offense they have faced all year for this one. I think they'll struggle. Marshall's offense has been up and down this year, but Colorado State ranks 101st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Marshall should get going offensively in this contest. This number is a touchdown too low. Take the over. |
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12-10-17 | Ravens v. Steelers UNDER 44 | 38-39 | Loss | -107 | 53 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday night. The AFC North is well known for its hard hitting style and these two teams are definitely that style. In the AFC North, the under is a whopping 56-29 (66%) on games with a total of 41 or higher since 2004. The weather here will play a bit of a role too. The wind is expected to be 12 mph during this one. That's enough to make it a little harder to throw the ball deep. The Steelers are clearly short handed at linebacker, but Baltimore's offense has been really bad this year. The Ravens are dead last in the NFL in yards per play. On the other hand, Baltimore is fifth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Both teams have an excellent pass rush, and that will make the quarterbacks get rid of the ball quicker than normal. The under is 19-8 in the Steelers last 27 vs. the AFC. The under is 4-1-1 in the last 6 between these teams. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | Vikings v. Panthers UNDER 41 | 24-31 | Loss | -115 | 70 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers and Minnesota Vikings meet in what should be a really good game on Sunday afternoon. The Vikings have been the most consistent defense in the NFL. Adjusted for strength of schedule- the Vikings defense is second against the pass and third against the run. Carolina's offense has been below average all year in the passing game, and they aren't getting enough out of the running backs in the running game. Minnesota's offense has been solid this year, but they don't move particularly fast. They have a lot of long drives that eat up the time. Carolina ranks as the third slowest team in the NFL, so the Panthers definitely use up the clock as well. The under is 20-6 in the Vikings last 26 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 9-1 in their last 10 road games vs. a team with a winning record. I expect a hard fought game that stays under the total. Take the under. |
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12-10-17 | Packers v. Browns UNDER 40.5 | 27-21 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Green Bay Packers rank 27th in the NFL in yards per play since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Green Bay has to rely on their running game, but the strength of this Cleveland defense is their rushing defense. Cleveland ranks in the top five in rushing defense when measured by advanced metrics. The Browns have been really bad on offense again this year. Yes, they have better weapons on the outside now with Gordon and Coleman. I don't see them doing a ton of damage here though for two reasons: Kizer is their quarterback, and second the wind is going to be a big factor. In the NFL, games with a total of 38 or higher with winds of 10 mph or higher have gone under the total a little better than 57% of the time in the past ten years. The wind makes a difference in Cleveland even more than most stadiums. This stadium is very close to the lake, and the wind can swirl around here easily. Expect two conservative game plans and the defenses will have the upper hand. Take the under. |
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12-04-17 | Steelers v. Bengals UNDER 43.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 66 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Monday Night Football MONEY* The Cincinnati Bengals host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Monday night. This is an AFC North rivalry. There is definitely a lot of hatred between these two teams. The AFC North has been notorious for hard hitting football and tight low scoring games in recent years. Here's an impressive and simple system for this division: -Playing the under on a game between AFC North foes where the total is 41 or higher has yielded a 56-28 (66.7%) win rate for the under in the last 84 contests. Pittsburgh's defense is the strength of the team this year. The Bengals rank fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Steelers running game hasn't been as good this year and Big Ben's play has been inconsistent. The Bengals don't have a running game, and I don't trust Andy Dalton in the big game. A big plus here is the weather too- wind of 15 mph is expected during this one with a chance of a little rain as well. The wind is a big positive for the under. The under is 13-4 in Pittsburgh's last 17 vs. an AFC North opponent. The under is 12-4 in the Bengals last 16 vs. an AFC North foe. Take the under. |
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12-03-17 | Browns v. Chargers OVER 44 | 10-19 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled to get going for much of the year, but they have gotten healthier in recent weeks and they are playing great right now. Phillip Rivers is still a very good quarterback, and he has plenty of weapons around him. The Browns defense has been pretty good against the run this year, but they are very weak against the pass. A big key here is Cleveland is without star linebacker Jamie Collins and DL Emmanuel Ogbah. Cleveland's offense has been inconsistent, but Josh Gordon will return in this one, and the Chargers have given up quite a few big plays defensively this season. These teams both play at a pace quicker than the league average. The over is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 road games. I see the Chargers scoring a lot here and the Browns scoring plenty to get this past the total. Take the over. |
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12-03-17 | Colts v. Jaguars -9.5 | 10-30 | Win | 100 | 34 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't normally a team I'd lay this many points with, but I think the matchups here warrant it. Jacksonville has the best pass rush in the NFL. Indianapolis has been the worst in the NFL when it comes to pass protection, and it really isn't even close. What happened the first time these two met? Jacksonville had a whopping ten sacks. Indianapolis is coming off a deflating loss where they actually led much of the game. Jacksonville is coming off a loss in Arizona. I think this is a better spot for Jacksonville to get back on track. Jacksonville runs the football well and the Colts should struggle to stop them. The first time around it was a blowout when these two met. I don't think it will be close here either. The Jaguars are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. The Colts are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. the Jaguars. A 10-0 angle. Take Jacksonville. |
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12-03-17 | Vikings v. Falcons UNDER 47 | 14-9 | Win | 100 | 34 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Vikings are 2nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Minnesota defense is equally strong against the pass and the run. There is no weakness in this unit. Atlanta's defense is surprisingly 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. They are clearly improved on defense from last season. Also, Atlanta's offensive efficiency isn't quite what it was a year ago. Matt Ryan does miss Kyle Shanahan. Neither of these teams play particularly fast. The Vikings are a touch faster than the league average and the Falcons are a bit slower than the league average. I expect both offenses will find it harder to break big plays than normal in this one. This is a pretty high total in today's NFL. This is a measuring stick game for both teams. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand. Take the under. |
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12-02-17 | Troy -110 v. Arkansas State | 32-25 | Win | 100 | 43 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Troy* The Troy Trojans travel to Jonesboro to take on the Arkansas State Red Wolves on Saturday. So far this week, 43% of the bets are on Troy, but 70% of the money is on the Trojans. The sharps like Troy here, and I agree. Troy was beaten 35-3 on their home field as 10 point favorites by Arkansas State. It was a rash of Troy turnovers that led to that blowout. Arkansas State didn't even get to 400 yards of offense, but they rolled to a win. Troy has a balanced offense, while Arkansas State relies solely on the passing game. Arkansas State ranks in the bottom 10 in rushing efficiency. Troy's defensive front is great at rushing the passer, and with Arkansas State having to throw it a lot, I see Troy being able to get pressure quickly here. The Trojans have shown their upside this year. They played Boise very tight on the road and then won at LSU. Arkansas State is unbeaten at home this year, but they have played no one even decent on their home field. Troy gets revenge for last year's loss and wins this key Sun Belt contest. Take Troy. |
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12-02-17 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 49 | 28-7 | Win | 100 | 134 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs just played three weeks ago. This one means a whole lot more. Auburn blasted Georgia in the first game. Georgia's coaches and players weren't very happy with the chatting from the Auburn after that last meeting. They felt Auburn took advantage of the opportunity and ran up the score and then talked about it after the game. I fully expect to see an extremely motivated Georgia Bulldogs defense in this one. Georgia's defense was bullied on the line by the Tigers offensive front in the first meeting. Don't expect that again here. Auburn runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays. The Tigers will be without Kamryn Pettway due to injury, and star running back Kerryon Johnson will likely try to play through a shoulder injury. Georgia runs the ball on 69.5% of their offensive plays. The Bulldogs go up against an Auburn defense that has been elite all year against the run. Auburn plays at an average tempo. Georgia plays at one of the five slowest tempo's in the country. This much running with a relatively slow tempo should mean a small amount of possessions. This game means everything to both teams and intensity usually helps the defense more than the offense. Take the under. |
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12-02-17 | Idaho v. Georgia State UNDER 46 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Georgia State Panthers have absolutely no running game. Adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Georgia State has been the worst running offense in the country. One-dimensional offenses are a lot easier to game plan for. Idaho's pass rush has been solid this year, and I think the Vandals can get some pressure on the quarterback here. Idaho's offense is lost without quarterback Matt Linehan. How have they done without him the last couple weeks? They scored only 7 points against lowly Coastal Carolina two weeks ago. They scored just 10 points against a terrible New Mexico State defense last week. Idaho isn't any good at running the football, but with their third string quarterback in for this one they are likely to have to try to run the football. Idaho's starting running back Isaiah Saunders is questionable with an injury here too. I don't think Idaho will be able to do much on offense in this one. Both teams have played quite a few very low scoring games this year. The under is 4-0 in Idaho's last 4. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 on turf. The under is 4-0 in GA State's last 4 home games. The under is 6-0 in their last 6 on turf. A 19-0 angle. Take the under.  |
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12-02-17 | Memphis +7.5 v. Central Florida | 55-62 | Win | 100 | 35 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Memphis* The Memphis Tigers are peaking at the right time. Memphis has been the number one offensive in terms of scoring efficiency in the last five weeks. Riley Ferguson is playing some tremendous football, and he's been picking apart secondaries on a consistent basis. UCF is unbeaten and the pressure is on UCF here. The Knights will get into a major bowl if they win this one. Scott Frost is being rumored to go to Nebraska, and that's certainly at least a minor distraction for the team. UCF played their best football early in the season, and they have been less impressive of late. They were outgained by Temple a few weeks ago. USF outgained them handily last week, and UCF was fortunate to win that game. Memphis is slightly better on offense and UCF is slightly better on defense. I don't see much separating these two teams now. UCF crushed Memphis on September 30 in a game where Memphis was in a tough scheduling spot. Memphis has gotten much better since then, and that blowout has given us value on the Tigers here. This should be a back and forth game. I'll grab the points. Take Memphis. |
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12-01-17 | Stanford v. USC UNDER 59 | 28-31 | Push | 0 | 99 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Friday Night PAC 12 Title Game CASH* The Stanford Cardinal were beaten 42-24 by USC earlier this year. That Stanford team was a lot different than the current version though. David Shaw's team has gotten a solid amount better on defense throughout the year. Their defensive efficiency rank was in the range of #90 early in the season. If you look at the last five weeks only, it is #41. USC struggles at times to protect Darnold, and the Cardinal have been good at pressuring the quarterback this year. I think they'll get in the backfield and disrupt things quite a bit during this contest. The Stanford offense has gotten far less efficient in recent weeks. Bryce Love is playing hobbled and this is a very conservative offense. Stanford ranks 120th in the nation in pace of play. They will look to run the football and use up the clock and keep the USC offense off the field. Since their loss to USC on September 9, only one Stanford game has gone over this total. That was against UCLA and their terrible defense. The under is 7-0 in Stanford's last 7 following a win. The under is 4-0 in USC's last 4 following a bye week. An 11-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-26-17 | Packers v. Steelers UNDER 43.5 | 28-31 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Sunday Night Football CASH* The Green Bay Packers are averaging only 13.4 points per game since Aaron Rodgers went down with an injury. Brett Hundley hasn't been the answer, and the offensive line is banged up. The Packers are also without Aaron Jones and Ty Montgomery is doubtful. This offense is badly beaten up. Pittsburgh's defense has been consistently very good this year. The Steelers have ranked in the top five or six in nearly every defensive statistic this season. I don't see them giving up much here. The Green Bay defense has been improved in recent weeks. Ben Roethlisberger has been sick this week and is listed as probable here, but he's less than 100 percent. The Steelers offensive line hasn't been getting as much of a push in the running game this season. Both of these teams have been slowing much slower than the league average in pace of play. In the last 3 years, NFL home teams who are favored by 13 points or more at home with a total of less than 48 points have seen the under go a perfect 9-0. The under is 5-0 in the Steelers last 5 games after throwing for 250 yards or more last game. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-26-17 | Bucs +10 v. Falcons | 20-34 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Tampa Bay Bucs catch the Atlanta Falcons in a tough spot here. Atlanta is coming off a Monday night win in Seattle. That was a big win for the Falcons, and they were on an emotional high Monday night. Now, the Falcons must come home and play a Tampa Bay team that isn't very good after that huge win. It's clearly a letdown spot. More importantly, they have a short week to get ready. Tampa Bay is healthier now than they were a few weeks ago, and the Bucs have put together a couple wins in a row. Here's an angle I like a lot in this one- fading teams coming off playing Seattle. That has been a great angle in the past few years and it is especially strong when fading a team that is favored in their next game. Fading a team off a game vs. the physical Seattle Seahawks that is favored and doesn't have a bye week before their next game has gone 50-26 ATS in the last 76 contests. I'll grab the points here with the Bucs. They'll probably lose, but I think it stays closer than expected. Take Tampa Bay. |
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11-26-17 | Bears v. Eagles UNDER 44.5 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 11 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Eagles are coming off a really big win at Dallas last weekend. That's a rivalry game where Philly puts a bunch into that contest. It would be easy for the Eagles to let up a little here. Chicago isn't very good on offense. They are extremely reliant on the running game. The strength of the Eagles defense is their front seven. Philadelphia is very likely to stack up the box and dare Chicago to beat them through the air. The Eagles pass rush is elite and the Bears offensive line has struggled in pass protection. The Bears defense is really underrated. This is a unit that has kept the Bears in a lot of games this season. The Eagles will move the ball here as they always do, but I think the Bears slow them down and hold them to field goals more often than normal. The weather here looks less than ideal. Winds of 13 mph with gusts of 20 to 25 mph are forecast for this contest. That's a positive for the under. Take the under. |
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11-25-17 | Arizona v. Arizona State OVER 74.5 | 30-42 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Wildcats and Arizona State Sun Devils meet on Saturday in what should be a game filled with tons of big plays for the offenses. Arizona's offense ranks first in the nation in yards per carry at a whopping 7.03 per attempt. Arizona State's defense is 109th in the country and allowing 5.11 yards per carry. Adjusted for strength of schedule played, Arizona State's run defense ranks in the bottom ten in the country. Arizona State's passing attack has a big edge on this Arizona Wildcats secondary. Arizona has allowed more than 40 points in 4 of their last 7 games. The Wildcats are giving up huge plays by the bunches this year. The last five games between these two teams have all gone over this number. Take the over here. |
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11-25-17 | Iowa State v. Kansas State UNDER 51.5 | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 120 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones and Kansas State Wildcats are two of the rare teams in the Big 12 who play slowly and look to control the ball through their run game. Both teams are without their starting quarterback and that should make them more conservative. I see a game where both teams play slowly and this one is decided by a small margin. We get a little line value from the fact that both teams have played several high scoring games against opponents like Oklahoma and Oklahoma State who are tremendous offensively. There is no great offense in this game. Take the under. |
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11-25-17 | Old Dominion v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 48 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense is much better now that star quarterback Brent Stockstill is back on the field. While Richie James is injured, Ty Lee has turned into a star at receiver and MTSU has a big advantage over an ODU defensive secondary that has struggled all season long. Old Dominion's offense is certainly better now that Ray Lawry is healthy. ODU has gotten much more balanced on offense in recent weeks since the passing game finds openings because teams are now having to stack up the box to slow the running game once again. ODU should be able to do enough here. Both offenses have rated much higher in efficiency metrics in the last few weeks. I think this number would have been fair if Stockstill and Lawry weren't back, but with them in the fold I'll take the over. Take the over here. |
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11-25-17 | Appalachian State v. Georgia State UNDER 52 | 31-10 | Win | 100 | 61 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Appalachian State Mountaineers have one of the best defenses in the Sun Belt. Appalachian State is a team that likes to run the ball as often as possible. They often go on long drives that eat up a bunch of time. Georgia State is dead last in rushing efficiency on offense in the country. Georgia State has to throw it, but Appalachian State has the best secondary in the Sun Belt. I expect Georgia State to have trouble moving the ball here. Georgia State has scored 21 points or less in 5 of their 9 games this year. Look for both defenses to match up well in this one. Take the under. |
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11-25-17 | Boston College v. Syracuse OVER 53.5 | 42-14 | Win | 100 | 116 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Boston College has picked up their pace significantly this season. Syracuse is one of the five fastest teams in the country. This number is awfully low based on those tendencies to hurry and get in as many plays as possible. Boston College and Syracuse got to 48 points last year, but Boston College is playing at a much faster tempo this year, and the Eagles defense has been struggling in recent weeks. This one has the potential to be a very close game where both teams score plenty. Take the over. |
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11-25-17 | Georgia v. Georgia Tech +12 | 38-7 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Georgia Bulldogs are in a really tricky spot here. The game that really matters to their playoff chances is next week against Alabama. They clearly want to win this game, but being favored by 12 on the road is excessive in my view. In the last four years, none of the games between these two have been decided by more than a touchdown. Two of the games went into overtime. Each team has won two of the last four meetings. Georgia Tech and Georgia play at an extremely slow tempo. They both rank in the bottom five in the country in terms of pace. They both run the ball on the large majority of their plays as well. That means double digits here is a really big number. Both teams will have a lot of long drives that take up a lot of the clock. Georgia's defense has been very good against the run, but stopping this triple option attack is much different than a normal rushing attack. I think this one stays close the whole way. Georgia Tech is 7-0 ATS in their last 7 home games. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 non-conference games. They are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 vs. the SEC. A 17-0 angle. Take Georgia Tech. |
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11-24-17 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia +7 | 10-0 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Friday Night Lights* The Virginia Tech Hokies have beaten the Virginia Cavs 13 times in a row. Virginia Tech looked like a really good team early in the season, but the Hokies aren't playing well now. Virginia Tech was fortunate to hold on to beat Pittsburgh at home last week. There were beaten badly at Miami. They were also beaten at Georgia Tech. It's been a while since VA Tech played well in a game. Virginia outgained Miami last week, and this Cavs team is much improved with Bronco Mendenhall as a head coach and Kurt Benkert doing a nice job running the offense. Last year, VA Tech ran up the score and beat Virginia 52-10 in Blacksburg. Several of the Virginia players have said that game has been on their mind all year. They want this one badly. It's a great chance for Virginia, and I'll grab the points here. Take Virginia. |
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11-23-17 | Vikings -2.5 v. Lions | 30-23 | Win | 100 | 15 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Lions/Vikings ATS CASH* The Detroit Lions went to Minnesota and won earlier this year. I think Minnesota returns the favor here. Detroit was outgained by Minnesota in that first game, but the Vikings lost three fumbles in that one. They are unlikely to do that again. Since the first time they met, the Vikings have been playing much better. Detroit has been outgained in 7 of their 10 games this year. The Lions are certainly fortunate to be 6-4 on the season. What about Minnesota? The Vikings have outgained their opponent in 9 of 10 games this season. Minnesota ranks third in yards per play allowed. The Vikings defense is very good against both the run and the pass. Detroit is one dimensional on offense with the passing game being the only way they typically move the ball. Minnesota's defensive line should overpower Detroit here. Detroit's defense is 25th in yards per play allowed. The Lions aren't a really good team, and the sharp money has come in on Minnesota here. I agree with that move, and I'll back the team with the much better defense and some balance on offense. Detroit is 2-7 ATS in their last 9 games vs. a team with a winning record. Minnesota is 15-7 ATS in their last 22 vs. a team with a winning record. Take Minnesota. |
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11-19-17 | Eagles -3 v. Cowboys | 37-9 | Win | 100 | 147 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Philadelphia Eagles* The Dallas Cowboys are saying Sean Lee will likely miss this game. Lee is the heart and soul of this defense, and their numbers without him are drastically worse than they are with him on the field. Tyron Smith is questionable, and I would guess he either won't play here or won't be himself. He has multiple injuries and has been very hobbles. Dallas allowed 8 sacks Sunday against Atlanta after allowing a grand total of 10 all season before the Atlanta game. The Eagles are coming off a bye week and should be well prepared here. I've been extremely impressed by the balance of this Eagles offense. Carson Wentz is the real deal and he's surrounded by some very good weapons. I like the addition of Jay Ajayi. Dallas is a good team when healthy, but they are likely to be without several stars here. Lay the points with the rested and healthy Eagles. Take Philadelphia. *As the injury news has come in- this line has risen. I do still like Philly here as Dallas is without several very key players to their team. Thank you. * |
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11-19-17 | Patriots -6.5 v. Raiders | 33-8 | Win | 100 | 143 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The New England Patriots play the Oakland Raiders in Mexico City this week. This game is played at elevation, and that's a major factor. The Patriots are an organization that gets an edge every way they can, and it shows by their success on the field. New England is spending the week in Colorado and practicing at elevation so they are well prepared for the conditions. New England's offense has been excellent in recent weeks. They are going up against an Oakland secondary that is without both of their starting cornerbacks. That should be a big problem against Tom Brady and this offense. I consider Jack Del Rio one of the worst coaches in the NFL. We all know where Bill Belichick stands when it comes to the coaching ranks. I expect this line to go up further, so I'm grabbing this one now. New England's offense takes advantage of a banged up Oakland defense and rolls to a victory. Take New England. |
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11-19-17 | Patriots v. Raiders OVER 54 | 33-8 | Loss | -113 | 37 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots have the number one ranked pass offense in terms of efficiency. Who has the worst ranked pass defense in the NFL in terms of efficiency? The Oakland Raiders. Tom Brady should have a big game here, and I expect New England to be put up a big number. Oakland's pass rush has been poor this year, and New England has been blocking well. When Brady has this much time to throw against a weak secondary, that generally equals great things for the Patriots offense. Derek Carr has looked healthier of late, and the Patriots pass defense ranks 30th. Carr should hook up with his receivers in the open field several times as well. The elevation is a positive in Mexico City in my mind for points. Tired defenses generally lead to blown assignments. I like this to be a high scoring game. Take the over. |
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11-19-17 | Lions v. Bears UNDER 42 | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 133 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have played four games at home this year. The highest scoring game was 23-17 (in overtime) against Pittsburgh and 23-17 against Atlanta in the season opener. The Bears have an ultra-conservative offense now. They aren't taking many chances with Mitchell Trubisky. The Bears have the second highest running plays as a percentage of their overall offensive plays in the NFL behind only the Jaguars. Detroit's secondary isn't very good, but the Lions rank top ten in the NFL at stopping the run. Detroit should be ready for the running game here. Chicago's defense has been solid in all ways this year. Detroit is awfully one-dimensional with the passing game, and with the weather forecast here that could be trouble. There is a storm coming through Chicago this weekend and 20 mph winds are forecast at Soldier Field on Sunday. That will impact the game and make throwing more difficult and both teams will likely run more than normal. Take the under. |
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11-19-17 | Jaguars v. Browns UNDER 37 | 19-7 | Win | 100 | 33 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The weather forecast in Cleveland calls for 25 mph winds coming off the lake during this game. There is also a chance of snow showers throughout this one. This will be really bad conditions, and history has shown that conditions like this are great for the under. Winds of 10 mph or more with totals of 35 or higher and a temperature of 78 or lower- the under is 57.5% in the last ten years. What about at Cleveland? In Cleveland, the under is 10-2 in the last 12 games with the wind at 10 mph or greater and temperatures of below 50 degrees. The wind changes the game at First Energy Stadium more than the average stadium in the league. 50% of the tickets written to this point are on the under, but 90% of the money is on the under. The sharps love this one and I see the value too. The Jaguars will run the ball a ton here, but Cleveland ranks top five in the NFL in rushing defense. The under is 4-0 in the Jags last 4 vs. the AFC. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after gaining 250 yards or more passing. The under is 4-0 in the Browns last 4 on grass. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | Air Force v. Boise State OVER 56 | 19-44 | Win | 100 | 127 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Boise State Broncos offense has really gotten it in gear of late. Air Force is one of the worst defenses in the country. The Falcons are allowing 6.51 yards per play, which is 118th out of 130 teams in college football. Boise State's offense led the comeback vs. Colorado State last week. They should put up a big number here. Air Force's offense is good enough to put up some points, especially as they play faster when behind. Take the over. |
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11-18-17 | NC State v. Wake Forest UNDER 63 | 24-30 | Win | 100 | 40 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Totals TAKEDOWN* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons are coming off a really high scoring game against Syracuse. The Orange play extremely fast and aren't very good on defense. That basketball-like score has created some value on the under here. I leaned to the under even before I saw the weather here because of the overreaction in the market, but after seeing the weather I like the under a good amount. The Winston Salem area is expected to get 25 mph winds on Saturday night during this game. Both of these teams rank top 25 in the nation in passing efficiency adjusted for strength of schedule. They both rank worse than 65th in the nation in rushing efficiency. I expect both teams to have to run the ball more than they want in this one, and that plays into the hands of the defense. The under is 10-1 in NC State's last 11 ACC games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after a win. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 road games. A 19-1 angle. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | Texas A&M v. Ole Miss OVER 69 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Taamu has been terrific at quarterback for Ole Miss. He is completing better than 73% of his passes. Ole Miss' tempo has been even faster since he took over as well. The Rebels offense ranks in the top 15 in pace of play on offense. Texas A&M ranks in the top 20 in tempo as well. There will be a bunch of possessions in this one. Texas A&M's offense has gotten quite a bit better as the season has moved on, and they are up against a weak defense. Ole Miss has an explosive offense that scores quickly. Take the over. |
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11-18-17 | Connecticut v. Boston College UNDER 50 | 16-39 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles and the UConn Huskies will both be playing with backup quarterbacks on Saturday night. Both lost their starter in their last game. That alone would make them likely to be more conservative, but add poor weather to the mix and we should see a lot of conservative play calling. This game is being played at Fenway Park. The wind is supposed to pick up during the game and the rain is forecast to start falling during this game. By the end of the game, 20 mph sustained winds and showers should be falling. Look for a sloppy lower scoring contest here. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | UAB +10.5 v. Florida | 7-36 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB ATS Play of Week* This one is all about motivation. Florida has absolutely nothing to play for in this game. Florida won't make a bowl game this year. They should get pumped up about playing against rival Florida State, but why would they care about this one? Bill Clark has done a masterful job with UAB, and the Blazers have a chance to win on the big stage here. This would mean a ton for the program. The Blazers have picked up 7 wins already this year when their season win total was 2.5. They are a team full of gritty players who fight hard to the end. There is a huge motivational edge for UAB. This is a game with a low total, and I'll take the 10.5 points with the team that should be excited for a chance to make history for their school. The Gators are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 following a loss. They are 1-8 ATS in their last 9 non conference games. UAB is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 November games. They are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall. A combined 24-2 angle. Take UAB. |
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11-18-17 | Purdue v. Iowa UNDER 44 | Top | 24-15 | Win | 100 | 121 h 33 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years I like this one to stay very low scoring. Take the under big. *This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 40 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thanks* |
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