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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-25-21 | Kansas State v. Oklahoma State UNDER 48 | 20-31 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys ran the ball on more than 80 percent of their offensive snaps last week against Boise State. Mike Gundy doesn't trust Spencer Sanders, and I can't blame him. Sanders was disappointing last year with Wallace and Stoner on the outside. Now, he doesn't have the same type of weapons to throw the football to. Oklahoma State is averaging 4.82 yards per play (108th in the nation) so far this year. Kansas State is ninth in the country this year at yards per carry allowed at only 1.93 ypc allowed. The Cowboys aren't likely to be able to get a lot of big gainers against this Wildcats defensive front. Oklahoma State's defense is arguably the best defense they have ever had under Mike Gundy. Even with Ford injured, this Cowboys defense is nasty. They are giving up only 2.58 yards per carry on the season. The Cowboys go up against a Kansas State offense that is certainly more limited with Howard at quarterback. Skylar Thompson is far more capable through the air. That should allow Oklahoma State to hone in on stopping the run. A ton of running the football in this one. I think both defenses do a good enough job slowing down the run that this one stays low scoring. Take the under. |
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09-25-21 | UCLA v. Stanford OVER 59.5 | 35-24 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal are going to be without all kinds of guys in this one. Stanford will be without three of their primary four running backs. They'll be without their star safety. Two of their cornerbacks are doubtful as well. Stanford has been a pass heavy team all year, and I would expect them to be even more pass heavy in this game. The Cardinal do appear to have an edge in the passing game. UCLA ranks just 68th in PFF's coverage grade. Stanford ranks in the top 30 in the country in passing efficiency with Tanner McKee at quarterback. McKee has done a nice job stepping in for the Cardinal. UCLA's offense ran the ball easily against their first two opponents before Fresno State slowed them down last week. The Bruins have a massive running edge here against a Stanford defense that has allowed a whopping 5.85 yards per carry (125th out of 130 teams) on the year thus far. I think Chip Kelly's team will have a big day on the ground here. DTR has thrown downfield more this year. UCLA has good enough receivers to take advantage of Stanford's injuries in the secondary. This contest was 34-34 at the end of regulation last year. I think both offenses have the advantage again this season. Take the over. |
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09-25-21 | Arkansas State v. Tulsa OVER 62.5 | 34-41 | Win | 100 | 64 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves defense has been absolutely awful this year. How bad? They are dead last (130th out of 130 teams) in yards per play allowed this year. They have given up 7.52 yards per play. They allowed a whopping 680 yards against Memphis. They then allowed 598 yards against a very questionable Washington offense last week. Tulsa put up 501 yards of offense against Ohio State. They should have scored more than 20 points in that game. Their passing attack has looked much better in the last few quarters. While Ohio State's defense isn't good now, it is certainly better than the Arkansas State defense. Tulsa should hit some big gainers. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 16 plays of 30 yards or more this season already. The Arkansas State offense is playing at the 12th fastest pace in the country. Tulsa isn't nearly as good defensively this year without Zaven Collins. Arkansas State is throwing it around this year. They are throwing the ball on 62% of offensive plays. The Tulsa secondary is questionable, and the pass rush is much weaker this year. This is a hot weather game and that has been good for overs in the past. Games with a temperature of 84 degrees or higher and less than 10 mph wind (with a total of 65 or less) are 59% to the over since 2005. Take the over here. |
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09-25-21 | Boise State v. Utah State +9.5 | 27-3 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Utah State Aggies season win total was set at 3 or 3.5 before the season. This team was an absolute trainwreck last year with Gary Andersen at head coach. What a difference a year makes! Blake Anderson is an excellent coach and he is a massive upgrade from Gary Andersen. Logan Bonner is a very good QB as well and he is a big upgrade from anyone who saw the field for Utah State at QB last year. Boise State doesn't look like themselves so far this year. The Broncos are averaging 2.06 ypc which is 127th out of 130 teams in the country. Utah State's run defense is weak and I do think Boise State will run it better here, but they won't take advantage as much as some would expect. The Broncos offense overall is just 92nd in yards per play this year. Utah State runs some great uptempo offense. The Aggies are 2nd in the nation in pace. They are averaging 6.87 yards per play (26th in the country). They have a whopping 12 plays of 30 yards or more in just three games. The Aggies should get some big gainers against a Boise State defense that is down from the last few seasons. Boise State is the big name here. That is why the line is what it is in this one. Utah State has road wins over Washington State and Air Force. This is a big game for them against the biggest name team in the conference. I expect a tight battle. Take Utah State. |
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09-23-21 | Marshall v. Appalachian State OVER 55.5 | 30-31 | Win | 100 | 77 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank 3rd in the nation in tempo. Marshall is using only 20.33 seconds between plays. The Thundering Herd are also averaging 7.58 yards per play so far this year. Marshall's offense is throwing the ball on 55% of their plays and they are taking plenty of shots downfield. Grant Wells has looked very good so far this season. Appalachian State ranks 82nd (just a bit slow) in tempo. The Mountaineers are averaging an impressive 6.60 yards per play on offense. Chase Brice has been a better fit in the offense than most expected (including myself). The Marshall defense looks good on paper, but they just gave up 42 points to E Carolina, who was the first decent offense they faced. Marshall has allowed only 7 red zone scores on 12 trips for opponents. Five forced turnovers in the red zone isn't sustainable out of 12 attempts. Marshall's defense is due for negative regression to the mean. With the pace this is played at being a Marshall game and a total only in the mid 50's, I have to side with the over. Take the over here. |
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09-19-21 | Cowboys v. Chargers OVER 54.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have a new faster paced offense with the new coaching staff this year. Justin Herbert is a perfect fit for this offense at the quarterback spot. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him, and the Chargers have upgraded the offensive line position a great deal. Rashawn Slater looks like a star already. The Chargers racked up 424 yards of offense against Washington last week. They go against a much worse Dallas defense in this one. Dallas isn't good at all on defense, and now they will be without their best defensive player, DeMarcus Lawrence. The Cowboys secondary is a major problem area, and now they have a much weaker pass rush. The Chargers are expected to be without cornerback Chris Harris in this game. Justin Jones is also doubtful on the defensive line. The Chargers defense isn't a bad unit, but it is far from dominant. The Dallas Cowboys offense has all sorts of weapons and Dak Prescott looked good in the season opener. Dallas should be able to score and score quickly against most teams this year. Can their defense get any stops? That is a tougher question. They'll need to win shootouts more than likely. This game is indoors and early season games between non divisional foes in a dome have been good over bets long term. Take the over. |
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09-19-21 | Vikings v. Cardinals OVER 50.5 | 33-34 | Win | 100 | 13 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. Arizona torched Tennessee for 38 points last week. The Titans offense was a no show in that game. I think Minnesota's offense will show up more than the Titans did a week ago. Arizona does have a very good pass rush, but the Cardinals secondary is extremely weak. They face a top 3 group of wide receivers in the NFL in this game. Dalvin Cook is also a great pass catcher out of the backfield. Kirk Cousins has all sorts of weapons around him. Kyler Murray looks great this year. He is healthy and looks extremely mobile. This is a guy who is extremely tough to defend. The Cardinals have DeAndre Hopkins and multiple very fast wideouts to hit the home run ball with. The Vikings secondary is another questionable secondary. The over is 55.5% in dome games in the NFL in the first two months of the season in the last six years. This is on the fast track and I expect to see some big plays here. Take the over. |
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09-19-21 | Patriots v. Jets UNDER 42.5 | 25-6 | Win | 100 | 84 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New York Jets offense looked very weak against the questionable Carolina Panthers defense last week. The Jets had just 8 points going into their final drive of the game. The Panthers sat back in prevent and the Jets then went on a touchdown drive and the game finished 19-14. Even with that long TD drive at the end of the game, the Jets only finishing with 4.2 yards per play. The New England Patriots defense is much better than the Carolina defense. It would be very surprising if the Jets can score much here. On the other side, the Patriots are going to lean on the run game more this year once again, and the Jets are a pretty good run defense. I think this is the type of game where a Patriots lead and then conservative play calling and running the clock is very reasonable to expect. New England is a well coached defense and they should bother Wilson in this game. Expect them to bring pressure after him here. The Jets defensive coaching staff is pretty good too, and I don't think the Patriots are anxious to hurry up and take a bunch of big risks. Take the under here. |
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09-18-21 | Oklahoma State v. Boise State UNDER 57.5 | 21-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys offense is way down this year. Spencer Sanders no longer has Wallace or Stoner to throw to on the outside. The Cowboys still have some good running backs, but the offensive line play has been very questionable. In fact they rank 108th in run blocking grade according to PFF. Boise State's running game has been terrible this year as well. The Broncos are averaging 2.24 ypc on the season. How bad is the Boise State offensive front? They rank 122nd in PFF in run blocking grade. That is behind teams like USF and UConn. The weather could be a factor here as well. Sustained winds of 15-20 mph with gusts to 25 mph are expected for this game. There is also a chance for some rain. That could make the two teams more conservative on offense, and that helps the under. Oklahoma State has somehow been amazing in the red zone (7 trips and 7 scores- including 6 TD's). That should regress to the mean. This isn't a good offense right now. Boise State has allowed 50% on third down conversions for their opponents, but I think that improves over the course of the year. Take the under here. |
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09-18-21 | Utah State v. Air Force OVER 49 | 49-45 | Win | 100 | 138 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons defense looks amazing right now. Why? They have gone up against the Lafayette Leopards and a terrible Navy offense. Navy runs the same style offense Air Force does, and they frankly aren't any good at it right now either. Air Force's defense may be pretty good this year, but they definitely aren't this good. I'll look to try to take advantage of the fact that their defensive numbers are skewed going into this game. Utah State is a much improved offense with Blake Anderson as head coach and Logan Bonner at quarterback. The Aggies are playing at the 10th fastest pace in the country. They are really getting off a lot of snaps quickly. Utah State should test Air Force with their solid running game and their ability to get the ball out quickly in the passing game. On the other side, Air Force is an excellent running team. Utah State has allowed 4.28 ypc so far on the year and that was against Washington State and North Dakota. The Aggies clearly have some issues on the defensive end, and I would expect Air Force to be able to take advantage of those weaknesses. This is an awfully low total for a game involving a team that plays as fast as Utah State. These aren't great defenses either. Take the over. |
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09-18-21 | Auburn v. Penn State UNDER 53 | 20-28 | Win | 100 | 42 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Bo Nix has drastic home and road splits in his career. According to Sports Reference, Nix has thrown 15 TD's and 1 INT at home in his career. On the road he has 9 TD's and 10 INT's. He only has a 54% completion percentage on the road. Nix is playing at Happy Valley in front of a Whiteout crowd that will be amped up for this game. A very tough spot for an opposing quarterback. Auburn is very likely to try to run the ball early and often with Tank Bigsby and company. They will likely get some yards, but I don't see them gashing Penn State for a bunch of big gainers here. The Nittany Lions have been tremendous on defense so far this year. They allowed only 3.8 yards per play in Madison in a win over Wisconsin. Sean Clifford is inconsistent at quarterback for Penn State as well. Clifford is going up against an excellent secondary in Auburn. The Tigers likely have a top 5 secondary in the country. Penn State ranks 89th in the country in explosiveness on offense, so they aren't likely to be hitting many big plays here either. Two good defenses who do a good job denying big plays and questionable quarterbacks. Take the under. |
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09-18-21 | East Carolina v. Marshall OVER 55 | 42-38 | Win | 100 | 123 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Marshall Thundering Herd are playing at the fastest tempo of any team in the country so far this year. That is despite the fact that they have played in two epic blowouts against Navy and North Carolina A&T. This team just keeps their foot on the gas and scores as much as they can. East Carolina has played Appalachian State and South Carolina so far this year. Those two teams rank 96th and 102nd in the country in tempo. They now go up against a team with a better offense and a team that is willing to play much faster. The Pirates are likely to give up quite a few points here. East Carolina's offense should improve over the course of the season, and both Appalachian State and South Carolina do have solid defenses. Marshall's defense is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in recent years. The pace of this game makes me think this total is several points too low. Take the over. |
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09-18-21 | Eastern Michigan v. UMass OVER 55.5 | 42-28 | Win | 100 | 49 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UMass Minutemen once again have one of the worst defenses in the country. UMass allowed 51 points against Pitt and 45 against Boston College. Boston College scored 45 points in that game despite their star QB (Jurkovec) going down early with an injury. Eastern Michigan is a good passing team. I would expect them to be able to throw the ball with ease against UMass. UMass has allowed 14 plays of 20 yards or more in just two games. The UMass offense is improving. They put up 28 points against a pretty decent Boston College defense last week. I think they can score here against a middle of the road or worse MAC defense in Eastern Michigan. A total set this low with two weak defenses is a good look to the over. Take the over here. |
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09-18-21 | Florida State v. Wake Forest UNDER 62 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 38 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The biggest negative of taking the under in a game between Florida State and Wake Forest is you know there will be a fast tempo from both teams. Still, a total in the 60's between two inefficient offenses makes me like the under here. Wake Forest is averaging only 5.88 yards per play on the year (66th in the nation). They have played Old Dominion and Norfolk State. These are two awful defenses. The Demon Deacons are unlikely to be able to run on a Florida State defense that is giving up only 2.34 yards per carry on the season. They'll need to air it out. Sam Hartman is a pretty good quarterback, but Wake Forest is a short passing attack and they are unlikely to hit many big plays down the field. Florida State's offense ranks 86th in yards per play so far this year. This is still a bad offensive line that holds this team back. The Seminoles are unlikely to fix their problems on the offensive line anytime soon. Wake Forest can bring some pressure and I think they'll have success doing so in this game. This projects as a sloppy game between two improving defenses and two offenses who lack identity. Take the under. |
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09-18-21 | Minnesota v. Colorado UNDER 51 | 30-0 | Win | 100 | 131 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes defense is very strong led by linebacker Nate Landman. Colorado gave Texas A&M's offense a really hard time last week in Boulder. This unit is especially strong in the front seven. That's what you want when you are about to go up against the Minnesota Golden Gophers offense. Minnesota relies heavily on the running game. They are without star running back Ibrahim now, but I still expect them to be a solid running team through the season. They lack star wide receivers now that Bateman is gone. Morgan is a solid quarterback, but they want to rely on the running game most. The Colorado offense is still trying to find itself. The Buffaloes lack a downfield passing game and that makes things easier on the opposition. Both Minnesota and Colorado are running the ball on almost 70% of their offensive plays so far this season. A bunch of running the football means a lot of running clock. Minnesota ranks 123rd out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Colorado is also pretty slow at 88th. I think we see a lot of slow drives with the clock ticking away here. Take the under. |
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09-18-21 | Virginia Tech v. West Virginia UNDER 50.5 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers host the Virginia Tech Hokies in what should be a good contest in Morgantown on Saturday afternoon. Virginia Tech's performance on defense this year has really impressed me. In two games they have allowed only one play of 30 yards or more. That includes their season opener against a great North Carolina offense. The Virginia Tech front seven ranks 4th in the country in defensive havoc rate, so they are getting in the backfield early and often. West Virginia's offensive line is their biggest weakness on offense, and the Hokies should cause trouble in the backfield here. The Virginia Tech offense hasn't impressed me very much this season. They are averaging only 5.26 yards per play (88th in the nation) despite playing a weak MTSU defense and a mediocre North Carolina defense. Braxton Burmeister hasn't proven himself as a passer. This is still a very good West Virginia defense. Virginia Tech runs the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. Even their successful drives will take a long time. West Virginia's offensive line issues should make it hard for them to sustain too many drives. Take the under. |
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09-12-21 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 46.5 | 14-34 | Loss | -104 | 50 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have some significant offensive problems. The Bears have a weak offensive line and a lack of skill position talent. Andy Dalton isn't likely to be the answer for this team. The Bears are very likely to be conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I would expect Aaron Donald and the Rams defensive line to be a major problem for the Chicago offense. The Bears defense is still an above average unit. Stafford should do pretty well with the Rams, but I don't think they'll find moving the football easy against this solid Bears defense. The last 3 years these teams have played each year. The final total score was 26.6 points. None came even close to this total. Allen Robinson is a great weapon, but Jalen Ramsey will matchup with him. The Bears should struggle to find anyone else to turn to. Take the under. |
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09-12-21 | Dolphins v. Patriots UNDER 43.5 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 46 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Two young quarterbacks up against talented and well coached defenses. I would expect to see two conservative game plans in this contest. The Miami secondary is excellent. Mac Jones starts right from game one for the Patriots, but he isn't surrounded by great talent and Miami's secondary will be tough to beat. Tua Tagovailoa was good in the preseason, but his regular season performances haven't been very good. He's up against a great defensive coach here. I would expect Miami to want to run the football more than normal in this game. Both of these defenses have been good at preventing the big play. I think that continues in this game. The weather here calls for 15 mph winds throughout the game. That isn't massive, but it does help the under some. Will Fuller is out for this game for Miami too, which certainly limits their vertical passing game. Take the under. |
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09-12-21 | Cardinals v. Titans OVER 52 | 38-13 | Loss | -109 | 94 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Arizona Cardinals offense will once again play very quickly this year. Kyler Murray wasn't very healthy down the stretch last year. He is once again healthier now and I expect big things from him. It doesn't hurt that he now has De'Andre Hopkins, Rondale Moore, and AJ Green on the outside. The Titans pass defense is subpar, and I think Arizona is the type of team that can take advantage of that early and often. Speaking of vulnerable secondaries, the Cardinals pass defense is a clear weakness. Ryan Tannehill has been great in this Titans system. He now has another star in Julio Jones on the outside. AJ Brown is excellent as well. The Cardinals aren't likely to be able to slow this duo down. I think both of these teams will have a lot of success on offense. Another clear positive in this game is Jerome Boger's crew is here. Boger's crew is notorious for defensive penalties and high scoring games. In fact, the over is a whopping 114-77 in Boger's games as the crew chief (59.7% overs). Take the over. |
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09-12-21 | Jaguars v. Texans +3.5 | 21-37 | Win | 100 | 42 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Houston* Everyone is betting on Jacksonville here. I get that Jacksonville has improved their talent pool. I also realize that Urban Meyer is a big name hire. Things should clearly improve for the Jaguars in general this year, but laying this number on the road is a little out of control. This is still a team with major weaknesses. Teams with 6 wins or fewer from the previous year who are underdogs in week 1 of the next year are hitting at a 60% clip ATS in the last 15 years in the NFL. Houston fits that system. There isn't much positive to say about Houston. Clearly, they won't be a good team this year. Still, Taylor is a decent quarterback who can manage a game. Remember, he is going up against a really bad Jacksonville defense as well. The Texans are still professionals who are going to put forth effort, especially at the beginning of the season. I'll fade the public and go with the ugly home underdog. Take Houston. |
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09-11-21 | Missouri v. Kentucky OVER 53 | 28-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats have a new offensive coordinator in Liem Coen. They also have a new quarterback in Will Levis. Levis looks like a significant upgrade from any QB the Wildcats played last year. Coen's system is more pass happy, and that will keep the opposition honest. In the past couple years, Kentucky could only run the ball. Missouri's defense is a relative weakness. The Tigers will likely struggle with the now two dimensional Kentucky offense. Connor Bazelak has proven to be a really nice QB for the Missouri offensive scheme. Drinkwitz is a good coach and I see Missouri continuing to improve especially on the offensive end. The Tigers have some nice weapons at the wideout spots. Kentucky has had a strong defense in recent years, but they have lost some key talent and they are no better than a mediocre SEC defense now. The faster pace Kentucky is playing at is not factored into the totals yet. Take the over. |
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09-11-21 | Liberty v. Troy UNDER 62 | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 28 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Liberty and Troy should be a fun contest on Saturday. Liberty is a great "smaller name" team with Hugh Freeze doing a great job leading this team. It helps to have Malik Willis at quarterback. Liberty has won 9 straight games ATS. I'm not as interested in the wager ATS here, but I do like the value on the total. These are two teams who like to run the football a lot. Liberty is great at running the ball, but the strength of the Troy defense is their defensive line. Liberty's weakness defensively is their secondary, but I'm not convinced Troy has the offensive scheme and players in place to take advantage of that. Both Taylor Powell and Gunnar Watson are conservative and don't take many deep shots. We see a lot of screen passes and quick slants. The Liberty defensive front has gotten much better in recent years against the run. I expect Troy to run the football a lot here and if they do move it down the field it will take quite a bit of time. With a total set this high, you have to see a lot of explosive plays to reach the total. I think both teams will play slow enough and keep things in front of them that there is value to the under here. Take the under. |
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09-11-21 | Iowa v. Iowa State UNDER 46.5 | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 98 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes go to Ames to take on the Iowa State Cyclones this week. Iowa has dominated this series in recent history despite Iowa State having the better record and higher ranked team in many of those games. This has become quite the rivalry contest. Iowa State has a top 3 group of linebackers in the country. The DLine is also stacked from a run stuffing standpoint. That is good against an Iowa team that is very conservative and dependent on the running game. Iowa's Petras hasn't proven himself as a quarterback yet. The Iowa State offense is good, but they have struggled badly against this Iowa defense in the past. In two of the last four meetings, Iowa State has scored 3 points. In 3 of the last 4 they have scored 17 points or less. Iowa still has a top 10 or 12 secondary in the country. The Hawkeyes are always good against the run. Both of these teams play at a pace far slower than the average team in the country. There should be a lot of running clock. The current forecast for Ames calls for 15-20 mph winds throughout this game. I like the under even without this, but it is a nice bonus if it comes to fruition. Take the under. |
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09-11-21 | South Alabama v. Bowling Green UNDER 51.5 | 22-19 | Win | 100 | 134 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons looked somewhat better on defense against Tennessee, but this Falcons team is still absolutely hapless on offense. Also, Bowling Green slowed their tempo down drastically in game one. Despite being far behind the Volunteers in the second half, Bowling Green averaged using 31.64 seconds between plays (very slow). South Alabama made a good hire in Kane Wommack. Wommack was wonderful as a defensive coordinator at Indiana, and he talked highly about the potential for this South Alabama defense. They looked great in week one against Southern Miss. Southern Miss averaged just 3.49 yards per play. Frank Gore Jr. and company couldn't get going against South Alabama. South Alabama averaged 30.59 seconds between plays in week one, and I would expect this team to continue to play slower than an average team. They will look to run the ball often as well and that keeps the clock moving. This one is totaled 4 points above my projected total. Take the under. |
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09-11-21 | Texas A&M v. Colorado UNDER 52 | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 110 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes lost their quarterback from last year, and the QB spot is a big question mark now. I expect Colorado to run the ball early and often this year and try to play at an extremely slow pace. They did have a big lead against N Colorado, but 77% of their offensive snaps in that game were running plays. Colorado's defense is led by star Nate Landman. I expect this Buffaloes defense to be improved compared to a year ago. Texas A&M has one of the best defenses in the country this year. Mike Elko is an excellent defensive coordinator, and this is the most talented defense he has had at Texas A&M. They gave up only 10 points against a really good Kent State offense last week. Texas A&M is led by O'Neal at strong safety. The defensive line is full of highly recruited talent. The Aggies are going to be very hard to move the ball on this year. Texas A&M still has question marks at quarterback, and I expect a fairly conservative game plan from the Aggies. They are talented on offense, but don't yet have a clear vision of what they will be. Take the under.  |
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09-11-21 | Pittsburgh v. Tennessee OVER 52.5 | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 129 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Volunteers are likely to finish the country in the top 3 in the nation in tempo. Josh Heupel's teams always play at warp speed. UCF was first in the nation in pace of play last year. Tennessee averaged only 17.81 seconds between plays last week despite blowing out Bowling Green. The Volunteeers will play with extreme tempo. Pittsburgh has picked up their pace last year and this year. Kenny Pickett is now a veteran QB who knows this system very well. The Tennessee defense is much weaker than they have been in recent seasons. They are especially weak in the secondary. Pitt should be able to take advantage. The Pitt defense is still a good one, but they aren't nearly as dominant as they were a couple years ago. They lost several good defensive linemen, and their top safety (Hamlin) from last year. They will give up more big plays this year. The tempo will be extremely quick, and this is still a total set fairly low. I think it is several points too low. Take the over. |
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09-11-21 | Tulsa v. Oklahoma State UNDER 51.5 | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 69 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys averaged only 1.93 yards per carry against Missouri State in week one. PFF graded their run blocking lower than they did for any Oklahoma State game last year. It was against Missouri State! Oklahoma State lacks weapons in the passing game that they had last year. Both Stoner and Wallace are gone and their deep threats are severely lacking. Spencer Sanders missed last week's game because of COVID protocols and he is questionable here. Sanders still has never shown he can be great in this offense and now he is without his star receivers. The offensive line in front of him is a big question mark. Tulsa's offense is a huge question mark. Davis Brin steps in at QB, but Tulsa lost 19-17 against UC Davis in week one. Brin has 2 INT's and no touchdown passes. Smith was very good at QB for Tulsa last year and they will miss him. While Tulsa's defense is down without Collins, they still have a very good defensive front and I think they'll cause problems for the Oklahoma State offensive line. The weather here calls for very hot temperatures and 20 mph winds gusting to 30 mph during the game. Take the under. |
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09-11-21 | Western Kentucky v. Army OVER 51.5 | 35-38 | Win | 100 | 43 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers have a new look this year. Western Kentucky is airing it out early and often. They brought in Bailey Zappe at quarterback from Houston Baptist. They also brought in Zach Kittley as their offensive coordinator. He was the OC at Houston Baptist a year ago. If that wasn't enough, they brought in Houston Baptist's top two receivers from a year ago. Western Kentucky's offense needed a complete overhaul after an ugly year last year, and that is exactly what they got. Now, the Hilltoppers are an air raid offense built around uptempo principles. Army is a slow paced team that relies on running the football about 85 or 90% of the time. Western Kentucky allowed 5.91 yards per carry last week against Tennessee Martin. It's highly unlikely that they'll be able to stop this Army ground attack. The Hilltoppers defense lost a ton from their front seven a year ago. What about Army on defense? They are accustomed to playing against triple option and run heavy teams. They have no one in practice who can simulate what Bailey Zappe and this impressive passing attack of Western Kentucky can do. This total has been bet down a few points to a level where I have to play the over. I think both teams have an offensive edge here. Take the over. |
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09-04-21 | Louisiana Tech +23 v. Mississippi State | 34-35 | Win | 100 | 14 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Louisiana Tech* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs are coached by Skip Holtz. Holtz has been a fantastic coach against the spread (ATS) as an underdog. How good? Holtz is 47-31 ATS (60.3%). On the road, his teams are 37-19 ATS in their last 56 games. Road games in games 1-8 in the season his teams are 28-10 ATS as an underdog. Mississippi State still has question marks. Their offense was a disappointment last season. I do think the team will be better this year, but I'm not sure all their issues will be fixed right from the beginning of the season. Mike Leach's team still lacks the weapons on the outside that they would like to have. Austin Kendall transferred to LA Tech and he is a clear upgrade for them at quarterback. Kendall played fairly well at Oklahoma and West Virginia. Mississippi State should win this game, but getting more than 3 touchdowns here is enough for me. Take Louisiana Tech. |
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09-04-21 | West Virginia -2.5 v. Maryland | 24-30 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on West Virginia* The Maryland Terrapins are coached by Mike Locksley. Locksley is 22-29 ATS as a head coach. His teams have consistently underachieved. We know Maryland has a passing attack capable of big things, but keep in mind there were major problems with turnovers last year as well. Maryland will have very little running game this season, and that should make them one dimensional against good defenses. West Virginia has a top 10 defense in the country. The Mountaineers secondary should do a better job on the Maryland passing attack than most teams will be able to do. Neal Brown is a quality coach and I give him a clear coaching advantage over Mike Locksley. Doege is back at quarterback for the Mountaineers. His numbers looked worse than he truly was a year ago. There were too many drops. Expect that to improve this season. I'll take the much better defense with the better coach laying a short price. Take West Virginia. |
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09-04-21 | Marshall v. Navy UNDER 48 | 49-7 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen started terribly on defense last year. They weren't even hitting in practice and it showed in their 55-3 loss to BYU in their season opener. By the end of the season, Navy had clearly improved a lot on defense. They allowed 10 against Memphis, 19 against Tulsa, and 15 against Army in their last three games a year ago. Diego Fagot is a top notch linebacker, and he will lead an improved Navy defense this year. Marshall's defense ranked 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed last year. The Thundering Herd will once again be stellar against the run. Marshall's Jamere Edwards is a superior run stuffer. Penn State transfer Shane Simmons will help on the defensive line as well. The Thundering Herd ranked 83rd in tempo out of 128 teams last year. Navy ranked 117th. The Midshipmen will rank in the bottom five in the country in tempo in neutral situations this year. They only push the pace if they get way down. The oddsmakers expect this game to be close and I think that is a fair assumption. Neither team is particularly explosive on offense, and there will be a lot of running clock. Take the under here. |
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09-04-21 | Stanford v. Kansas State -2 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 118 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Kansas State* The Kansas State Wildcats have Skylar Thompson back under center and that should make a world of difference. Late last year when they went into a tailspin it was Howard at quarterback and that is a big downgrade. Vaughn is an exceptional running back/wide receiver despite his 5'5 frame. Stanford's defense is going to have a very tough time with him here. Davis Mills was a key to the Stanford offense last year. Even with him, the Cardinal weren't very good last year. They had only 9 sacks in six games last season. The defensive line is no longer a strength for Stanford. Kansas State has the coaching advantage here in my opinion. Chris Klieman is 15-7 ATS in his time at Kansas State thus far. David Shaw's teams have progressively gotten weaker in recent seasons. I'll lay the short number. Take Kansas State. |
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09-04-21 | Temple v. Rutgers OVER 52 | 14-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights ranked 15th in the nation in tempo last year. Sean Gleeson put his stamp on the offense and they clearly improved. Do I think they will become a great offense this year? No. I do think they will be even better though. Temple's defense rated 127th out of 128 teams in the country last year in tackling grade according to PFF. The Owls missed tackles like it was their job. They ranked 124th in opponent QBR. They picked up only 13 sacks in 7 games. Temple's offense should be improved with Georgia transfer D'Wan Mathis at the helm. He was a very highly touted QB, but was inconsistent at Georgia. A big step down in class here. Rutgers was 80th in yards per play on defense last year. Temple's offense should be better this year. This is a fairly low total for a game with one team playing very fast. We also have two weak defenses. Take the over. |
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01-24-21 | Bucs v. Packers OVER 51.5 | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers have been the single best team in the NFL when it comes to scripted plays in the first quarter on offense. The coaching staff has been putting this offense in great spots, and Aaron Rodgers and the offense have been great at executing especially early in the game. Tampa Bay has been poor on defense in the first quarter this year as well. I think Green Bay plays from ahead in this game. Tampa Bay has been a bit conservative on offense early in games this year, but when they have been down their offense is at its best. They have gotten more aggressive in these spots and they have the best pass catching weapons in the NFL. Tom Brady and this Tampa Bay offense should be able to move the ball in this game against a mediocre Green Bay defense. I see Tampa Bay's pass defense as a clear weakness. Drew Brees wasn't able to exploit that weakness. Aaron Rodgers should be able without too much trouble. The Packers defense has been very quick to get into prevent defense and give up big plays to their opposition. If they do that in this game it could become a real shootout. Did you know that non-divisional games with a temperature of 29 degrees or lower (average temperature during the game) have gone 71-31 in the last 102 contests. The cold weather without wind is not a negative for the over. Look for plenty of points here. Take the over. |
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01-17-21 | Bucs v. Saints -3 | 30-20 | Loss | -109 | 41 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on New Orleans* I'm not going to buy into the "it is hard to beat a team 3 times" narrative. What if you are just better than the other team? The Saints offense has gotten healthier and there are enough weapons in the passing game that I would expect the Tampa Bay pass defense to really struggle against them. Tom Brady has struggled when under pressure and the Saints are good at pressuring the opposition without sending a blitz constantly. The Saints defense is my second ranked defense in the NFL right now. They have played extremely well in the second half of the season. Tampa Bay has been good on offense of late, but this is a clear step up in class. Tampa Bay's defense has regressed in recent weeks. They are giving up far too many big plays this season. The Saints skill position talent is going to be hard for them to slow down. Take New Orleans. |
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01-16-21 | Rams v. Packers UNDER 46 | 18-32 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Green Bay Packers host the LA Rams on Saturday. The LA Rams have the best defense in the NFL. This is a team that just doesn't give up big plays in the passing game. The secondary is deep and they will challenge the Packers passing game. Green Bay also is banged up on the offensive line and I see that being a problem here against an elite defensive front who can really get after the passer. The Rams quarterback play is a major question mark. Jared Goff didn't look good at all last week. He looked like a guy who was struggling to make all the throws. He was throwing wobblers and couldn't get a spiral. His injury seems like a major problem. The cold weather has always been tough for him and I don't see it going well here. The Rams should run it often and try to keep the clock moving. The Packers play at a slow tempo as well. Take the under here. |
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01-11-21 | Ohio State +8.5 v. Alabama | 24-52 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 1 m | Show | |
*2 Star Play on Ohio State* The Ohio State Buckeyes played a complete game against Clemson in the Semis. Alabama has proven they have been the most consistent and best team in the nation through the year. Them being a decent sized favorite is justified. Still, Ohio State has a different level on offense with Trey Sermon in the backfield than they did with Master Teague as their primary back. The Buckeyes have a strong offensive line that should allow them to run the ball on Alabama here. Alabama is going to score a lot here too, but the Crimson Tide have shown they will give up points against top offenses (Ole Miss and Florida for example). Ohio State is the second best offense in the country from an efficiency standpoint. This is a small play for me, but I will take the points with the underdog with a lot of elite talent on both teams. Take Ohio State. |
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01-10-21 | Ravens v. Titans OVER 54 | 20-13 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tennessee Titans have a top three offense in the NFL. Ryan Tannehill has been a great fit at quarterback here, and they have a star at running back in Derrick Henry. The wide receivers are underrated as well. There are weapons all over the field for the Titans. Baltimore's offense started the year off playing poorly. They have really kicked it into high gear of late. While the Ravens wins late in the year did come against bad teams, it is important to note that the Titans defense is a bottom five unit in the NFL. This is one of the worst defenses the Ravens have faced all season. There is no bad weather in the forecast here. Only one of the Titans last seven games has stayed under this number. Jerome Boger's crew is set to call this game. In Boger's crews games, the over is a whopping 114-76 (60% overs). Look for a lot of key defensive flags in this one. Take the over. |
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01-09-21 | Bucs v. Washington Football Team UNDER 45 | 31-23 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay offense has been inconsistent this year. Tampa Bay has been at their best when Tom Brady isn't facing significant pressure. The single biggest strength of this Washington team is their ability to rush the passer. Brady shouldn't be comfortable in this one. On the Washington side, the offense is a mess. Alex Smith isn't healthy and he'll either be playing and struggling or it will be Washington backup Taylor Heinicke playing. He isn't a guy who instills any confidence. Washington will have to try to be very cautious on offense. Tampa Bay's defense is very strong against the run. The Bucs have given up some big plays in the passing game, but I don't think Washington is a team who can take advantage of that weakness. Take the under. |
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01-09-21 | Colts v. Bills -6.5 | 24-27 | Loss | -113 | 107 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bills* The Buffalo Bills have been playing as well as anyone in the NFL of late. Buffalo's passing attack is a top three or four unit in the NFL right now. Josh Allen is playing with a ton of confidence, and he should be able to throw it around on this Colts secondary. The Colts have given up a lot of big plays through the air in recent weeks to the Steelers, Houston, and the Raiders. Indianapolis is without star offensive lineman Anthony Castonzo. He is their best offensive lineman. Phillip Rivers has performed poorly in the playoffs even in his prime, and he is far past his prime now. I expect the Bills to be able to score here, and the Colts will have to keep up. I doubt Rivers and his weak arm can keep up in this spot. The Bills defense has played far better in the final weeks of the season. I'm going to lay the points here with the team with the much higher upside. Take Buffalo. |
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01-03-21 | Titans -7 v. Texans | 41-38 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Play of the Week* The Tennessee Titans need this game to make the playoffs. We know we will get a motivated Tennessee team coming into this one. I think Mike Vrabel is a solid head coach. The Titans have great balance on offense. Tannehill is a great fit for the offense, and his wide receivers are tremendous. Derrick Henry is a great runner, and the offensive line is solid as well. The Houston Texans would be better off losing this game. Houston has a star quarterback in Deshaun Watson, but he has an injured elbow. He is expected to start the game here, but I'm not sure if he will finish it or not. Why would the Texans risk him getting a worse injury? Houston is expected to be without Tunsil, their best offensive lineman as well. The wide receivers are way below average with their current group that will take the field. The Titans are going to score a lot of points here against a Texans team that hasn't been able to stop anyone on defense of late. Even the hapless Bengals offense put up 37 points on them last week. This one could get ugly. Take the Titans. |
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01-01-21 | Ohio State +7.5 v. Clemson | 49-28 | Win | 100 | 54 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Ohio State* The Clemson Tigers were fortunate to beat Ohio State last year in their meeting. Ohio State didn't cash in when they got into the red zone, and the Buckeyes received some unfavorable calls in that one. Justin Fields and the Buckeyes team wanted another crack at Clemson badly, and now they have that chance. I do think Clemson is the better team here, but this is a large point spread to be laying against a very talented Ohio State team. Ohio State found something in Trey Sermon last game. He is clearly the more talented running back on their roster vs. Master Teague. I would expect Sermon to be a big factor in this game. Clemson hasn't faced an offensive line as good as Ohio State's this season. Dabo Swinney has given Ohio State all sorts of bulletin board material over the course of the last couple weeks. That can't hurt Ohio State- it can only help. If the Buckeyes fail to cover here, it won't be because they aren't motivated and focused enough. Earlier in the year the spread in this matchup would have been Clemson -2.5 or so, and now we are north of a touchdown. These are two very good coaches and two high quality teams. I'll grab the points here. Take Ohio State. |
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12-31-20 | Mississippi State v. Tulsa -2.5 | 28-26 | Loss | -109 | 70 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Tulsa* The Tulsa Golden Hurricanes have a nice opportunity here to knock off an SEC team. It is an SEC team that enters this game with a bunch of flaws. Mississippi State's offense was very weak this year. They threw the ball on more than 75% of their offensive plays, but they only averaged 4.95 yards per play (105th in the country). Tulsa has a very good defense that should give them a lot of trouble in this game. Tulsa's offense can be hit or miss, but their running game improved late in the year. They do have a solid quarterback now as well and that has really helped this team this season. Phillip Montgomery is 2-0 ATS in the postseason. Mike Leach is 2-8 ATS in his last 10 bowl appearances, and many of the non-covers were terrible showings where they were blown out. The weather here calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. Mississippi State throwing it around in those winds could be a real problem. They have almost no running game. Take Tulsa. |
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12-30-20 | Florida v. Oklahoma +105 | 20-55 | Win | 105 | 54 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Oklahoma* The Florida Gators top three pass catchers have all opted out of this game. Kyle Trask is excellent and they'll still get their yards and points, but they shouldn't be nearly as efficient without Pitts, Grimes, and Toney. Oklahoma's defense is much improved with Alex Grinch leading them this year. Oklahoma still gives up some big plays, but they have been good in the red zone and good on third down. The Florida defense has given up quite a few points against nearly everyone. Oklahoma's offense has improved through the year. This is a great opportunity for Oklahoma. They have performed poorly in the playoffs recently, but now they have a chance to beat a huge name SEC team. Take Oklahoma. |
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12-27-20 | Rams +1 v. Seahawks | 9-20 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Rams* The LA Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss to the New York Jets last week. The average joe public bettor won't want anything to do with this team in the following week. However, the sharp money is clearly pointing toward the Rams in this matchup. While only 44% of the bets are on the Rams as of Saturday afternoon, 80% of the money is on the Rams here. Good teams in the NFL are generally good bets after a dud of a performance, and the Rams are certainly in that spot here. Seattle's defense has looked good in recent weeks, but have they really been tested? Their last four games have been against the Eagles with Wentz, the Giants with McCoy, the Jets, and Washington with Haskins at quarterback. To say that stopping the Rams offense will be a much harder task is a huge understatement. Sean McVay has had a schematic edge over Pete Carroll for a long time. The Rams have outgained the Seahawks in seven straight meetings. They have won five of the last six meetings between these two, and they lost the other game by one point. The Rams might have the best defense in the NFL, and the Seahawks offensive line will struggle here. The Rams are one of the few teams in the NFL with the players to slow down the Seattle passing game. Take the Rams. |
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12-27-20 | Falcons +10.5 v. Chiefs | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 92 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the WEEK* The Atlanta Falcons have proven that they will play hard even late in the season when they have nothing to play for. This is a time that has done this time and time again. I expect more of the same from them here. Kansas City has been playing down to their competition in recent weeks. The Chiefs have won six straight games by six points or less. Kansas City basically knows their spot in the AFC will be number one. I don't see why they would want to try to pull out all their best plays and win this game big. This is a spot where the Chiefs should just want to win. Atlanta fights to the end and stays within single digits here. Take the Falcons. |
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12-27-20 | Bears v. Jaguars OVER 47 | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 92 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Jaguars defense is arguably the worst in the NFL. Chicago has really found something offensively of late. Trubisky is playing much better and Montgomery has been great out of the backfield both running the football and catching it out of the backfield. I don't see Jacksonville slowing this offense down. The Bears defense isn't what they were last year or even earlier this year. Chicago is banged up on the defensive side, and they have been giving up a lot more big plays. Jerome Boger's crew is doing this game, and the over has hit a whopping 60% of the time in Boger's crews games in a sample size of nearly 200 games. Expect a lot of flags on the defense here. Take the over. |
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12-26-20 | Liberty v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 59.5 | 37-34 | Loss | -110 | 100 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers are unbeaten and they should be plenty motivated to try to keep that perfect record. Liberty has only one loss on the year. Both of these teams are really well coached, and both teams know what their strengths are on offense. Both of these teams run the ball on about 65% of their offensive plays. They also play at a very slow pace. Liberty is 97th in the nation in pace of play. Coastal Carolina is 119th in the nation in pace of play. We should see a lot of running the football and moving clock in this one. This is a high total for two teams who are conservative on offense and play at a slow tempo. I also expect both teams to be plenty motivated and that should help. I never want to take an under in bowl season in a game where I question the motivation of the teams. Whichever team gets the lead here will try to run the ball consistently and slow the game down in a big way in the second half. Take the under here. |
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12-25-20 | Marshall v. Buffalo UNDER 54 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd rank fourth in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Buffalo wants to run the football early and often. The Bulls are first in the nation in yards per carry, but they played some extremely weak run defenses in the MAC. Buffalo will still get their yards here, but they should be tougher to come by. Marshall's offense has been exposed in a big way in their last couple games. The Thundering Herd scored 13 points in their last two games combined. Both Rice and UAB made this Marshall offense look very bad. Grant Wells put up some big numbers against really bad defenses early in the season. Both of these teams play slowly and they run the ball at a very high rate. There should be a lot of moving clock and slow long drives. Both defenses do a good job not giving up explosive plays. Look for a lower scoring game here. |
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12-20-20 | Browns v. Giants OVER 44 | 20-6 | Loss | -108 | 46 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cleveland Browns played in three games with very bad weather this year. Those games were played in extreme wind and that makes their offensive numbers look a little worse than they should and their defensive numbers a little better than they should. The fact is in a game played in decent weather conditions, the Browns haven't had a game finish with a score lower than 44 points all season. I admit that the Giants are a lower scoring team, and they may well have Colt McCoy at quarterback here. Still, this Browns defense has been really weak against the run, and I think the Giants should be able to run the ball in this one. The Browns rushing attack is one of the best in the NFL. Also, the Giants are going to be without star corner James Bradberry in this one. The Browns do have big play receivers on the outside. Baker Mayfield is inconsistent, but he should be able to hit some big plays here. This is an awfully low total for today's NFL. I view the Browns as an over team, so I'll take the low over here. Take the over. |
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12-20-20 | Seahawks -4 v. Washington Football Team | 20-15 | Win | 100 | 156 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Seattle* The Washington Football team just won 23-15 over the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday. Washington didn't score an offensive touchdown in that game. In fact, they only had 193 yards and 3.1 yards per play. The Washington win in that game had a lot more to do with Nick Mullens being really bad than anything else. Washington also lost Alex Smith due to an injury in that game. Dwayne Haskins came in and looked really bad as he previously has. I think this number is a pretty good grab for Seattle even if Smith were healthy, but it will likely be Haskins here. Haskins at this point is a very bad NFL quarterback, and he is a turnover machine. Seattle has been up and down this year, but this number has to go up from here. The Seahawks are the much more talented team. Take Seattle. |
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12-19-20 | Arizona State v. Oregon State UNDER 54.5 | 46-33 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Arizona State put up 70 points which makes this look like a questionable selection, but Arizona just handed the Sun Devils that game last week. I don't think Arizona State's offense is bad, but they certainly aren't as good as they looked last week. Oregon State likes to run the football a lot, and I think they will try to establish the run in this game. Arizona State is a slower paced team and they are fairly conservative on offense as well. The Sun Devils defense has shown to be a high quality unit so far this year. The weather here makes me play the under. There is a 90% chance of rain with winds of 15-17 mph expected throughout this game. It is expected to be quite a bit of rain. The combination of rain and wind is a clear positive for the under. Take the under here. |
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12-19-20 | Panthers v. Packers OVER 51.5 | 16-24 | Loss | -107 | 22 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous in every way this year. Green Bay is much healthier on the offensive side of the football than the average NFL team right now. Green Bay ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. The Packers have faced a lot of tough defenses too. The Packers are balanced on offense, which allows them to be very good in the red zone as well. Carolina's defense has given up a lot of big plays this year. The Panthers secondary is a big problem, and Aaron Rodgers and this group of receivers should take advantage of this unit. On the other side, the Packers defense has been middle of the road this year. Teddy Bridgewater and the Carolina offense have continued to be pretty good this year. Green Bay should have a lead in this game as well, and when the Packers get a lead in the second half they are quick to play a prevent defense. This has allowed a lot of opponents to put up points in the fourth quarter. A good example of this was their win over the Bears a couple weeks ago. Look for a high scoring contest here. Take the over. |
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12-19-20 | Stanford +7 v. UCLA | 48-47 | Win | 100 | 27 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Stanford* The UCLA Bruins lost their super bowl last week in their rivalry game loss to USC. The Bruins players all were extremely upset after that game. There were some quotes that really stood out after that game. DTR has played well for the Bruins, but he said after the game last week that wasn't a normal loss and it really hurt. Stanford has been playing really good football on the road. They have embraced the underdog mentality on the road of late, and I think they have a real chance in this game. Stanford comes into this one in better shape injury wise, and they are certainly in a better spot. UCLA has already opted out of any bowl game, and I have to question what kind of effort we will get from the Bruins. Take Stanford. |
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12-19-20 | Boise State v. San Jose State +7 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 21 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on San Jose State* The Boise State Broncos have been the best team in the Mountain West for many years. Boise State is still good again this year, but they aren't at the same level they have been in recent years. Boise State has had several key injuries and a lot of COVID issues during the seasons. Boise State is +0.69 yards in the yards per play margin on the season. That is 38th best in the country. It might surprise you to find out San Jose State is +1.83 yards per play (9th in the country). Boise State is only 60th in yards per play on offense. They have very little running game this year. San Jose State is extremely well coached by Brent Brennan. The Spartans have allowed only 5 sacks this year, so it starts with a much improved offensive line for this team. San Jose State is 12th in the nation in yards per play on offense. This San Jose State team has been playing at UNLV lately and this game is more of a home field for San Jose State than Boise State. Boise State has typically been playing these Mountain West title games at home. I expect a close game here, and I'm glad to grab the points with a San Jose State team that has been underrated by the oddsmakers all year. Take San Jose State. |
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12-19-20 | Bills -5 v. Broncos | 48-19 | Win | 100 | 24 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Buffalo* The Bills are a very strong. I backed them against Pittsburgh and I will back them again here. Denver is without their top four cornerbacks in this game. The Broncos secondary is in shambles right now. Buffalo has the receivers to take advantage of that even without Brown on the field. Josh Allen continues to show that he has improved greatly as a quarterback. He is clearly a top six or eight quarterback in the NFL now. Given the Broncos defensive situation this is a great spot for him and the Bills offense. The Denver offense can't be trusted. Drew Lock isn't a good NFL quarterback. Buffalo's defense started the season out struggling, but this is a talented unit that is playing much better now and they have stayed relatively healthy. This number has dropped to a buy point for me. Take Buffalo. |
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12-18-20 | Oregon v. USC OVER 62 | 31-24 | Loss | -107 | 52 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Two explosive offenses face off on Friday night in southern California. Slovis is one of the best quarterbacks in the country, and this Oregon defense has been a big disappointment this year. Oregon has allowed 5.73 YPP on the season, and this may be the most talented offense they have faced yet. Oregon's offense has been better than expected this year. The Ducks rank 9th in YPP in the nation on offense. They have 30 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games. They have a ton of speed in the backfield. Conditions look perfect for this game, and I see both offenses with clear advantages. This should be a close game that turns into a shootout. Take the over. *This line varies significantly from book to book- I would rate this a 4 star play up to 64 and 3 star at anything higher than that.* |
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12-13-20 | Steelers v. Bills -2 | 15-26 | Win | 100 | 17 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on the Buffalo Bills* I like this spot for the Buffalo Bills. Pittsburgh comes into this game with some significant injury problems on defense. The linebacker spot was an area of strength for the Steelers coming into this year, but it is now a major weakness without the likes of Bush and Dupree. Joe Haden is their best guy in the secondary and he is hurt now as well. Pittsburgh has played the single easiest slate of offenses so far this year. The Steelers have padded their stats to a large degree. This is a good defense, but they aren't as good as they look on paper. Buffalo's Josh Allen isn't getting enough credit for how good he has been this year. Allen has really improved, and he has great weapons on the outside to take advantage of this weakened Steelers defense. The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all, and they have had issues with drops in the passing game. Buffalo's defense has been rounding into form in recent weeks. This is a huge game for Buffalo to prove they are a contender in the AFC. Take Buffalo. |
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12-13-20 | Jets v. Seahawks UNDER 47 | 3-40 | Win | 100 | 86 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks offense has really come back down to earth in recent weeks. After last week's loss at home against the Giants, Pete Carroll said the Seahawks need to run the football a lot more and get back to giving the ball to Chris Carson a lot more. I don't understand that strategy, especially against the Jets. New York is third in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. If the Seahawks want to run the ball consistently here and play as slow as they have been playing in recent weeks, I think that gives a lot more value to the under. The Jets offense is averaging 5.0 YPP at home and only 4.4 YPP on the road. The Seahawks defense is clearly much better with Jamal Adams and Carlos Dunlap on the field. Adams plays against his old team here and he should be ready to go. The weather report calls for rain here and that could lead to an even more conservative game plan from each team. Take the under here. |
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12-13-20 | Titans v. Jaguars OVER 52 | 31-10 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Titans and Jaguars meet up on Sunday afternoon. The Titans beat the Jaguars 33-31 earlier this year. The two teams had 6.0 and 6.5 yards per play in that game. The Jaguars have quite a few injuries on the defensive side now. I think they are a bit weaker on defense than they were in that first matchup. Tennessee is a really good offense. They have a great running back in Henry. They also have very good wide receivers and an efficient quarterback in Tannehill. Smith is a good offensive coordinator for them also. I don't think Jacksonville can do much of anything to slow them down here. Mike Glennon has done a decent job at quarterback for the Jaguars. Jacksonville does have some decent pieces on the outside to throw the ball to. The Titans have absolutely no pass rush, and I think the Jaguars will be able to move the ball through the air pretty well here. Both teams play much faster than the NFL average, and this total isn't all that high in today's NFL. Take the over. |
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12-12-20 | Fresno State -12 v. New Mexico | 39-49 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Fresno State* The New Mexico Lobos will start 5th string quarterback Isaiah Chavez in this one. Chavez and the New Mexico Lobos stunned Wyoming by winning 17-16 last week, but that final score was very misleading. Wyoming should have won that game. Also, Wyoming was dealing with a bunch of injuries on offense, and they couldn't capitalize on a bad New Mexico defense. Fresno State doesn't have many injuries, and I expect this Bulldogs offense to score a lot of points in this game. This is a well-coached team that has a lot of weapons in the passing game. Fresno State is averaging 6.2 yards per play this year, and the Bulldogs have a whopping 18 plays of 30 yards or more in only five games. This is an explosive offense. New Mexico's defense is allowing 6.91 yards per play (120th in the country). The Lobos are especially bad in the secondary, and that makes this matchup a problem for them. I expect Fresno State to get ahead in this one, and it is hard to imagine Chavez and the extremely limited New Mexico offense catching up. Take Fresno State. |
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12-12-20 | San Diego State v. BYU UNDER 49.5 | 14-28 | Win | 100 | 68 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The San Diego State Aztecs offense is awful. San Diego State picked up a brutal 2.6 yards per play on offense against Colorado two weeks ago. They then followed it up by picking up only 3.4 yards per play against Colorado State. San Diego State has absolutely no passing game, so if they are going to move the ball it will have to be on the ground. That makes this a hard matchup for them since the strength of the BYU defense is their run defense. BYU is 16th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. BYU's offense is a very good unit, but San Diego State ranks first in the nation in yards per play allowed this season. The Aztecs front seven is excellent and they should be able to get some pressure on Wilson here. The Cougars will score their points here, but they are moving slowly and it should take some time. I see both defenses forcing some field goals here, and with two teams who play slowly and do run the football quite a bit, I think this total is a few points too high. Take the under. |
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12-12-20 | Akron v. Buffalo UNDER 62.5 | 7-56 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Buffalo likes to run the ball early and often. The Bulls play at a very slow pace. Akron has slowed their pace to a crawl this year as well. This is a very high total for a game being played at this kind of a pace with both teams running the football. The weather here looks very questionable. I don't see Akron contributing many points at all here. This is an awfully high total for one team to get nearly all the points in a game that projects as a slow paced game with a lot of running. The weather here doesn't look very good either. I see value on the under. Take the under. |
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12-12-20 | Illinois +14.5 v. Northwestern | 10-28 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of the WEEK* The posted total in this game is set at 40.5 points. If you are going to give me two touchdowns or more with a total set that low, I have to take a long hard look. The total has been bet down by about 5 points, but the spread has actually gone up. The total has been bet down so much because of the weather forecast here. The weather is calling for rain possibly mixing with snow and winds of 20-30 mph during this one. Who does that help here? It should help Illinois. The Fighting Illini can't throw the football regardless, but they have a good running game. Illinois is averaging 4.96 yards per carry on the year which is 33rd best in the nation. Northwestern is allowing 3.67 ypc which is 34th best in the country. Northwestern's secondary is elite against the pass, but Illinois isn't likely to be throwing it here. Northwestern's offense looked good against Maryland in week one, and they have been terrible ever since. Northwestern has picked up 317 yards or less of total offense in five straight games. They are averaging a very weak 4.36 yards per play on the season (125th in the country). Northwestern is 8-16 in their last 24 as a double digit favorite. They are already in the Big Ten title game against Ohio State. If they actually get ahead by a solid margin late, we might see the backups more than normal. Grab the points. Take Illinois. *Note- I would play this at +14 for the same rating, but at 13.5 or lower if this dips more closer to kickoff I would take this for a 3 star rating.* |
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12-10-20 | Patriots v. Rams UNDER 45.5 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots should come up with a good defensive scheme to face Jared Goff and the Rams here. They certainly did a couple years ago in the Super Bowl. Jared Goff can look great one game and very questionable the next game. The New England offense is being very conservative on offense right now. The Patriots run the ball a bunch. The Rams are allowing 3.91 yards per carry. Look for the Rams to do a good job stopping the run here. I don't trust Cam Newton to be able to do much through the air against this elite secondary either. The Rams defense ranks number one in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall. Both of these teams have played 8 of their 12 games so far this year under this total. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand on Thursday night. Take the under. |
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12-06-20 | Rams -1.5 v. Cardinals | 38-28 | Win | 100 | 156 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on the LA Rams* The LA Rams were in a tricky spot against San Francisco on Sunday, and they put in a poor effort. I think they bounce back here. The Rams have proven they can win on the road, and they have arguably the best defense in the NFL. Arizona had an ugly performance against New England on Sunday. Kyler Murray doesn't look healthy, and if Murray isn't himself it really hurts this offense in a big way. He didn't run nearly as much and that is a huge part of this offense. Last year, the Rams matched up really well against Arizona and dominated them. The Cardinals are clearly a better team this year than they were a year ago, but this line is lower than I expected on the Rams. The Rams are the far more complete team here. The Rams wide receivers are likely to give the Cardinals defensive backs a lot of problems in this one. The Rams bounce back. I like this as a 4 star play up to -2.5 here. Take the LA Rams. |
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12-06-20 | Giants v. Seahawks UNDER 47.5 | 17-12 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Seattle Seahawks defense is much improved with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams. Seattle has allowed 5.8 yards per play on the year, but only 4.8 yards per play in their last three games. They have actually played two good offenses in those last three games too (Arizona and the LA Rams). Seattle has been far more conservative with their play calling in recent weeks. Pete Carroll has said he wants to reduce the amount of hits Russell Wilson takes. This sets up as a game where the Seahawks can salt away the win by running the football and using up the clock. Colt McCoy is expected to start here, and I think he is a big downgrade from Daniel Jones. McCoy doesn't throw the ball down the field as much, and he isn't able to use his legs the way Jones can. Take the under here. |
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12-06-20 | Raiders -7.5 v. Jets | 31-28 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Raiders* The Las Vegas Raiders might have been in a bad spot here if they had played well and won last weekend, but after the absolutely awful performance they put forth against the Falcons last week, there is no reason to expect them to not be ready for this game. This is a circle the wagons spot if there ever was one. The Raiders overlooked the Jets last year and were drubbed by them. Here's their shot at revenge from last year, and a chance to get right against the worst team in the NFL. The Raiders have played a much tougher schedule than the Jets so far this year. The Jets have consistently been beaten badly by above average teams, and the Raiders are an above average team in my book. Sam Darnold clearly isn't the answer for the Jets. I don't think the Jets care anymore, and the Raiders can't look past this game after such a bad performance last week. Take Las Vegas. |
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12-06-20 | Bengals v. Dolphins UNDER 42 | 7-19 | Win | 100 | 129 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals offense is a mess without Joe Burrow. The offensive line is the worst in the NFL. Brandon Allen is the starting quarterback here and he doesn't even know the system much at all. Their only touchdown last week was a special teams touchdown and that was against an average at best Giants defense. The Dolphins are an above average secondary. The Bengals are banged up in the running game, and it is hard to see them scoring much at all. With Miami heading into a big game against KC the next week it is easy to see the Dolphins just grabbing a lead here and coasting and being happy to salt this one away and play with a slow tempo. Tua is the likely starter at QB here and that means a more conservative game plan. Look for a low scoring game all the way around here. I think this could stay in the mid 30's or lower. Take the under. |
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12-06-20 | Colts v. Texans UNDER 51.5 | 26-20 | Win | 100 | 71 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Houston Texans offense will look a lot different without Will Fuller on the outside stretching the field. Deshaun Watson is an excellent quarterback, but his numbers without Fuller are far worse in his career than his numbers with Fuller on the field. This will be the first time he has been without Fuller and DeAndre Hopkins (now at Arizona). Houston has put up a lot of points of late, but they haven't been up against a good defense in a long time. In fact, the last solid defense they played was the Steelers back in September. Indianapolis is expected to be without star lineman Anthony Castonzo. That will make Phillip Rivers a little less comfortable in the pocket. The Colts prefer to play it safe offensively and move at a slower tempo. Divisional games late in the season have been good under bets, and this one fits that system. I see both offenses as a bit overvalued with their recent high scoring games against bad defenses. Take the under. |
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12-06-20 | Jaguars v. Vikings OVER 50.5 | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 57 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense is averaging a whopping 7.2 yards per play on offense at home. Kirk Cousins is playing really well and Adam Thielen will be back in the lineup here. Justin Jefferson is a great second option. The Jaguars secondary is probably the worst in the NFL. I expect Cousins and the Vikings receivers to have a big day here. Dalvin Cook may be a bit banged up. Even if Cook misses time here, the Vikings offensive line is good in run blocking, and the Vikings have a good group of backup running backs. I think Sean Glennon is a step up from Jake Luton, and I liked what I saw from him last week. With the Jaguars offense getting a little bit healthier, I think they put up some points in this one. Minnesota ranks 21st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jacksonville is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This game is played in a dome. We have two very weak defenses and an average total in today's NFL. Take the over. |
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12-06-20 | Browns v. Titans OVER 53 | 41-35 | Win | 100 | 11 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I see the Cleveland Browns as an over team right now. They had three really bad weather games which skewed their stats significantly. This is an above average offense with a strong offensive line and two very good running backs. It is also a defense that is clearly below average, especially without Denzel Ward in the secondary. The Tennessee Titans have been an amazing over bet with Ryan Tannehill under center. How good? The over is 20-4 in the Titans last 24 games with Tannehill under center. Derrick Henry does a great job keeping the defenses attention, and the Titans wide receivers are underrated by many. The Titans have big play potential at all times. The Titans secondary is vulnerable without Adoree Jackson. Both of these teams have 44 plays of 20 yards or more, which is tied for 9th in the NFL. The weather looks good for this one, and I expect both teams to put up quite a few points here. Take the over. |
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12-05-20 | West Virginia v. Iowa State UNDER 49.5 | 6-42 | Win | 100 | 17 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones are a strong defensive team. West Virginia is very good on the defensive end as well. West Virginia ranks 5th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a weak schedule, but this is a very good defense who should be able to at least slow down Brock Purdy and the Cyclones offense. West Virginia's offense hasn't been very good overall, and they have been very weak away from home. Iowa State's front seven should be able to shut down the running game and put pressure on the quarterback here. Take the under. |
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12-05-20 | Bowling Green v. Akron UNDER 58 | 3-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Bowling Green Falcons meet the Akron Zips in what should be a really bad game. These two teams are the worst two teams in the MAC, and they are two of the bottom five teams in the country overall. The last two seasons when these two teams met the final score was 35-6 and 21-6. The two teams combined for a pathetic 376 yards of total offense last year. Akron is playing at a much slower pace this year. They have decided that they have to do their best to play keep away and hide their really bad defense. The Zips offense hasn't been able to get many big plays at all this year. Bowling Green's quarterback play has been awful. The Falcons have the run the football, and that means a running clock a bunch of the time. I don't want to watch this game and neither should you, but I do think the under holds value. Take the under. |
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12-05-20 | Troy v. South Alabama UNDER 55 | 29-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have played one game that finished higher than this total, and that was against Arkansas State. Arkansas State is the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have a great offense and a terrible defense. Troy has been really bad offensively the last few weeks. Their offensive line is a big problem. The Trojans have scored 13, 17, and 10 points in their last three games. This total has been bet up to a point where the under has value. Take the under here. |
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12-05-20 | Texas v. Kansas State UNDER 54 | 69-31 | Loss | -111 | 118 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats prefer to play at an extremely slow pace. Kansas State also runs the ball on 59% of their snaps on offense. Texas is much improved on defense this year. They rank 29th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Longhorns are likely to load up the box and dare Kansas State to beat them through the air here. Kansas State's defense has been much better at home so far this year. They should be able to slow down a Texas offense that is very inconsistent. I had this one a few points lower than the total here. I think this is a good value. Take the under. |
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12-05-20 | Rice v. Marshall UNDER 45.5 | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 69 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd host the Rice Owls in a Conference USA matchup on Saturday afternoon. Last year when these two teams met, the final score was Marshall 20 and Rice 7. Marshall does have a better offense this year, but they are a run heavy team that plays slowly. The Thundering Herd rank 100th in the nation in tempo. Rice is even slower at 113th. Both of these teams run the ball on 60% of their offensive plays, which should mean a lot of running clock in this game. Rice just played a 27-17 game against North Texas, who has some of the highest scoring games in the country on average. They also played a 30-6 game against Southern Miss. Marshall won 17-7 over App State and 20-9 over FLA Atlantic. There is a chance of rain during this game (it will mainly rain before the game and will create a wet field), and there is a little bit of wind. This could make the teams even more conservative. Look for a low scoring game here. Take the under. |
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12-05-20 | Oklahoma State -2 v. TCU | 22-29 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Oklahoma State* The Oklahoma State Cowboys running game got going last week. I liked the effort I saw from the offense for the Cowboys a week ago. TCU is dealing with a bunch of COVID 19 cases right now and Coach Patterson has recently lamented how they are without so many guys. TCU's offense is a mess as well. They have been completely shut down by the good defenses they have played this year. Oklahoma State's defense has looked worse lately, but I would expect them to at least slow down the TCU run game and dare them to pass here. Oklahoma State's Mike Gundy has been a great ATS bet in general, and when laying a short price he has been great. I like the road team here. Take Oklahoma State. |
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12-03-20 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas OVER 65.5 | 42-31 | Win | 100 | 76 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank second in the nation in tempo. They also have a terrible defense. North Texas just allowed Sincere McCormick from UTSA to set a new school record for rushing yards last week. They gave up 49 points to a middle of the UTSA offense. North Texas has been very good at getting explosive plays on offense. The Mean Green already have 29 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They face a LA Tech defense that is no better than league average. I feel like LA Tech's scores have been depressed a bit by the teams they have played so far this year. North Texas is the best over team in Conference USA. Take the over. |
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11-29-20 | Dolphins v. Jets OVER 44 | 20-3 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins are expected to have Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback here. Even if Tua were the starter here, I think this is a fair price on the total. With Fitzpatrick, I think this is a very solid price on the over. The Jets defense is looking worse by the week. It would be a surprise if the Dolphins offense weren't able to put up quite a few points in this one. On the other side, with a healthy group of wide receivers, the Jets offense has looked much better the last couple weeks. Sam Darnold is back here and he is an upgrade from Joe Flacco. The weather looks good for this one, and in today's NFL if there isn't a weather issue this is a very low posted total. Take the over here. |
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11-29-20 | Raiders -3 v. Falcons | 6-43 | Loss | -112 | 9 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Las Vegas Raiders have really impressed me this year. Las Vegas has been great on the road as well. They won at Kansas City, Cleveland, and at LA against the Chargers. The Raiders passing game has upgraded in a big way this year. They have the speed guys on the outside and the elite tight end in Waller. Carr is playing with a ton of confidence right now. Atlanta isn't the same team without a healthy Julio Jones. The reports are that Jones is doubtful to play here. If he does play he isn't likely to be himself. The Falcons running game has been really weak all year, and I don't think they can have much success against the Raiders front seven here. Matt Ryan is inconsistent and he relies on Julio Jones in a big way. The Raiders have a strong offensive line, while the Falcons offensive front is a real problem. The Raiders passing attack has a big edge over a very weak Atlanta secondary. I'll lay the short number. Take Las Vegas. |
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11-29-20 | Chargers v. Bills OVER 52 | 17-27 | Loss | -102 | 8 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have become an over machine of late. Six of their last seven games have gotten to 57 points or higher. The Chargers aren't just getting over the total, they have been clearing it easily. Without Casey Hayward and Melvin Ingram here, the Chargers are without two of their best defensive players. Buffalo's defense has been a big disappointment this year. The Chargers have been able to get Keenan Allen going in a big way of late, and Buffalo has struggled with slot receivers in coverage. Allen should have a big game here. There is some wind in the forecast here (14 mph on average). That is factored into the total though, and I think both passing attacks have the edge vs. the opposing secondary. If it isn't broke, well you know. I see both of these teams as over teams. Take the over. |
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11-28-20 | Nevada v. Hawaii OVER 58.5 | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 55 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack have only 9 touchdowns in 22 trips into the red zone. Nevada's offense is due for some positive regression in the red zone. Carson Strong is a really good fit in the air raid offense. They also have an elite receiver in Romeo Doubs. Nevada put up 26 points against a very good San Diego State defense last weekend. The Wolf Pack gained 374 yards in that game. In a normal game that isn't all that impressive, but San Diego State ranks 2nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. Hawaii ranks 22nd in the nation in pace of play. This team is throwing it less this year, but they are still playing very fast. Nevada's defensive numbers look very good, but who have they played that is any good at offense? They haven't played a team in the top 60 in the nation in yards per play on offense. Nevada should be susceptible to the big play again this year. Both of these teams should get several chances in the red zone and both are due for positive regression when they get there. The pace of the game here means this total is set a few points lower than it should be. Take the over. Top Rated play. *Note- this has moved a little bit during the week. I would rate this a 5 star play up to 61. At 61.5 or higher this would be a 4 star rated play. Thanks and good luck.* |
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11-28-20 | Utah v. Washington UNDER 49.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 66 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Washington Huskies allowed only 46 yards against Arizona in the Wildcats first 33 plays from scrimmage last week. Once Washington took a huge lead, Arizona then put up more than 300 yards in the fourth quarter when the game had been decided. Jimmy Lake is a defensive-minded coach, and he wasn't happy that the Huskies gave up a lot in the fourth quarter against Arizona. I think that helps us here this week. Washington shut down Arizona when it mattered last week, and now they have heard from their coach all week about how much they can improve. Utah's defense lost a lot from last year. Where the Utes will be able to be beaten this year is through the air. Washington is running the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year, and the Huskies have an inexperienced quarterback. Utah is still very strong in the trenches, and they should be able to slow the Washington ground game. Utah doesn't have a strong rushing attack, but they might be able to beat some teams through the air. Washington has my highest rated secondary in the Pac 12. The Huskies are going to be a problem for opposing quarterbacks. I see two teams who play at a very slow pace and prefer to be conservative on offense. I also see two high quality defenses. Take the under here. |
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11-28-20 | North Texas v. UTSA OVER 64.5 | 17-49 | Win | 100 | 121 h 0 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* UTSA is playing significantly faster this season. The Roadrunners have had some lower scoring games, but that is largely because of who they have played. UTSA played a Florida Atlantic team that has had a bunch of low scoring games. They also played Army and UAB who are slow paced low scoring teams. They aren't playing a low scoring slow paced team in this one. Instead, they are playing North Texas, who plays as fast as anyone in the country. North Texas is snapping the ball every 19.5 seconds. The Mean Green are also 11th in the nation in yards per play. UTSA has already allowed 21 plays of 30 yards or more so far this season. North Texas should get a lot of big gainers here. UTSA ranks 46th in YPC this year, and North Texas' run defense is terrible. The Roadrunners will see their scoring opportunities throughout as well. North Texas has had only one game fall below 70 points all season. Take the over. |
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11-28-20 | Ball State v. Toledo OVER 63 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 58 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Ball State Cardinals play at the fastest pace of any team in the MAC. Ball State is using only 22.9 seconds between plays. The Cardinals have good balance on offense too. They are tremendous in the running game with Caleb Huntley, but Drew Plitt and the passing game can get explosive plays as well. Last year when these two teams met Ball State won 52-14. Ball State ran for nearly 400 yards in that game! The Cardinals are likely to find a lot of success offensively again. Toledo was without their starting quarterback in last year's contest, and they could never get anything going on offense. The Rockets are unlikely to have the same problem this year. Toledo already has 15 plays of 20 yards or more in three games this season. Ball State's defense has really looked bad so far this season, and they have played some of the weakest offenses in the MAC. Toledo is one of the best offenses in the MAC. This line has moved down to the point where there is good value on the over here. The MAC is an over conference on the whole, and these are two very good offenses. Take the over. |
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11-28-20 | SMU v. East Carolina OVER 67 | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 29 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* How did this game go last year? SMU defeated East Carolina 59-51. Both teams had more than 630 yards in the game. It was a shootout all the way. Why would this game be all that different? SMU is still very good in the passing game this year. The Mustangs already have 32 plays of 30 yards or more this year, which is the third most of anyone in the country. Both SMU and East Carolina rank in the bottom 20 teams in the country at preventing explosive plays. There should be a lot of big gainers from each side here. SMU provides the tempo, and I like the East Carolina offense better when they are playing from behind because Holton Ahlers seems to be able to get into a rhythm throwing it around later in the game in those situations. The weather looks good here and I expect a high scoring game. Take the over. |
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11-28-20 | Bowling Green v. Ohio OVER 54 | 10-52 | Win | 100 | 16 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Bowling Green is one of the worst teams in the country. The Falcons defense is absolutely awful. The offense isn't much better. Bowling Green does like to play very fast though, and that tends to lead to value on the over in their games. The Falcons rank 34th in the nation in pace of play. Ohio's offense was kept off the field quite a bit by Akron in their last game. The Bobcats are averaging a solid 6.04 YPP so far this year, but it has been only 24 and 27 points for them in their first two contests. Ohio isn't quite as good offensively as they were last year, but they did put up a whopping 66 points on Bowling Green last season. Bowling Green's running game is slightly better this year, and I think they can get some yardage on the ground here. If Bowling Green can get to 20 points here we should be able to get the over. I think this total is set too low because Ohio had such a low scoring game against Akron. Bowling Green is going to give up a bunch of points this year. Take the over. |
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11-27-20 | Oregon v. Oregon State OVER 61.5 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 102 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense is much more explosive this year despite losing a star quarterback in Justin Herbert. Why? A new offensive coordinator in Joe Moorhead. Moorhead is a really good offensive mind who puts his players in positions to make big plays. Oregon already has a whopping 21 plays of 20 yards or more in only three games. The Ducks have several good running backs who put a lot of pressure on any defense, and the Oregon State run defense is a big problem because of their weak defensive interior on the line. Oregon has been a big disappointment defensively. The Ducks are giving up 6.32 yards per play so far this year. Their tackling needs some serious work, and the biggest problem spot is their run defense. That isn't good when going against Jefferson and the Oregon State running attack. Oregon State is 29th in pace of play and the Beavers should be able to hit some big gainers against this Oregon defense. Oregon will put up a bunch of points in this contest and Oregon State should put up enough as well. Take the over. |
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11-27-20 | Central Florida v. South Florida OVER 67 | 58-46 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights rank first in the nation in pace of play. They are using only 19 seconds between plays on average. The USF Bulls rank 30th and they are only using 23.32 seconds between plays in conference action. This game should have a bunch of plays in it. That's always a good start for a high over. UCF is first in the nation with 71 plays of 20 yards or more. The Knights have only played eight games, so they are really putting up the big gainers at a very high rate. USF is giving up 6.17 yards per play in AAC action so far. UCF should put up a very big number here. It would be surprise if they don't at least get into the upper 40's. USF has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and there are two great offensive minds on this staff in Jeff Scott and Charlie Weis Jr. The UCF defense has been a big weakness this year, and I do think USF will get their yards and scoring opportunities here. Take the over. |
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11-27-20 | Iowa State v. Texas UNDER 60.5 | 23-20 | Win | 100 | 94 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns are much better defensively this season. Texas ranks 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. The defensive coaching staff is much better this year, and they have done a good job being aggressive on this side of the football. Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. They should be able to make Texas one dimensional on offense. Iowa State already has 22 sacks this year, and the Texas offensive line is a weakness. Iowa State is playing at an extremely slow pace to have a game totaled this high. The game could certainly get to the total if there are a bunch of big plays or turnovers for scores, but in a normal game state I don't see this one getting this high. The last 5 meetings between these two have finished at this many combined points: 24, 33, 24, 34, and 44 points. Take the under here. |
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11-23-20 | Rams v. Bucs -4 | 27-24 | Loss | -107 | 20 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tampa Bay* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense is excellent, and I think they'll give Jard Goff a hard time on Monday night. Andrew Whitworth going down with an injury really hurts this Rams offensive line. What is Jared Goff's biggest problem as a quarterback? Dealing with pressure up the middle. I think Tampa Bay can bring that pressure and give him a lot of trouble here. The Rams are clearly a quality team, but their offense goes as does Goff. It isn't likely that they'll be able to run all over the Bucs, who I regard as the best run defense in the NFL. Can Goff have a big day here through the air? I don't think so. The Tampa Bay offense has been a bit inconsistent this year, but they have all kinds of playmakers on the outside. The Rams defense is certainly good, but they haven't faced a lot of good offenses this year. Their secondary has a couple good cover guys (Ramsey is elite), but their depth in the secondary is questionable. I think the Bucs depth at wide receiver can give them some edges in this game. Tampa Bay looked terrible in their last primetime game at home against New Orleans. That should have them anxious to prove that was a fluke. This is still a team that has some very nice wins this season. Lay the short number with Tampa Bay here. Take the Bucs. |
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11-22-20 | Chiefs -7 v. Raiders | 35-31 | Loss | -100 | 100 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Kansas City* The Kansas City Chiefs were already going to be a play of mine, but now with the Raiders COVID issues, this is a stronger selection. Oakland's defense isn't very good to start with, and now they will be shorthanded. It's possible they will be without a bunch of key guys. Kansas City is off a bye week and ready for revenge after losing at home to the Raiders. It's a great situational spot. Look for the Chiefs to be at their best on Sunday. Take Kansas City. |
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11-22-20 | Packers +1.5 v. Colts | 31-34 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the WEEK* The Indianapolis Colts have a good defense, but they haven't faced many top quarterbacks this year. Indianapolis has had a very weak schedule of offenses they have faced this season. That changes here with Aaron Rodgers and the Green Bay Packers coming to town. Green Bay's passing attack has sputtered a bit in recent weeks because of the conditions. Against both Minnesota a few weeks ago and the Jaguars last week, the Packers played in winds of 25 mph and higher through the game. That changes the passing attack in a big way. Now, the Packers go back in a dome where Rodgers and this group of wide receivers has looked nearly unstoppable this season. I think the Packers are going to put up a decent amount of points. I'm not confident Phillip Rivers can keep up. The Colts ground game will get them yards and some points here, but Rivers makes a lot of bad decisions and if this game goes down to the fourth quarter I want Rodgers against Rivers in a big way. Alexander is back at cornerback for the Packers and he is one of the best in the league. I like the Packers here. Take Green Bay. |
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11-22-20 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48 | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota Vikings offense has been tremendous this year. Dalvin Cook looks like the best running back in the league. Minnesota has been very good offensively all year. They have been on another level offensively at home. How good? Minnesota is averaging a whopping 7.9 yards per play at home on the fast track so far this year. They have been above 7 yards per play in every game at home. The Cowboys weak defense is unlikely to have much success slowing them down either. Dallas is getting healthier on the offensive line. Andy Dalton returns here. Dalton looked bad earlier this season, but he should get better blocking in front of him here. The Cowboys still have tremendous wide receivers. The Vikings secondary is still a major problem. Minnesota's defense has looked better in recent weeks, but those good performances are misleading. The Vikings slowed Green Bay because of 25 mph winds 3 games ago. A couple games ago they were able to slow the Lions offense down because Stafford got hurt in that game and Golladay didn't play. Minnesota then shut down the hapless Bears offense. The Vikings have improved some on defense, but they aren't good. Dallas plays at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL. The Vikings offense has been amazing at home. We're getting a total that is below average in today's NFL. The game is played in a dome. Take the over. |
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11-22-20 | Falcons v. Saints OVER 51 | 9-24 | Loss | -105 | 68 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are expected to start Jameis Winston here. Drew Brees is out with an injury. Winston is clearly one of the best backup quarterbacks in the league. He's also one of the best "over" quarterbacks in the NFL. Winston is capable of a lot of throws many quarterbacks in the NFL aren't capable of. He can push it deep and really pressure a defense. At the same time, Winston is more capable of making poor decisions and throwing pick sixes than any other quarterback in the NFL. The Saints defense has been good of late, but Atlanta is a lot better offensively than the teams the Saints have been playing of late. Atlanta's wide receivers will put a lot of pressure on a Saints secondary that has been banged up of late. Atlanta should be able to move the ball pretty well here. The Atlanta defense is last in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Saints have weapons all over the field around the quarterback. It would be a big surprise if the Saints don't score a lot of points here. Take the over. |
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11-21-20 | Mississippi State v. Georgia UNDER 45.5 | 24-31 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs have averaged 3.6 yards per play in all of their last four games. That is just woeful offense. Importantly, they played Vanderbilt last game and could only muster 14 first downs and 206 yards. Georgia's defense was embarrassed by Florida, and they should be ready to go for this one. Georgia is still a very good defense, and it would be a surprise if Mississippi State can do much of anything on offense here. Georgia is in flux at quarterback. JT Daniels might get the start here. This offense is likely to be pretty conservative this week. Additionally, Mississippi State's defense has actually been very solid this year. They are 35th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Expect a low scoring contest. Take the under. |
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11-21-20 | Kansas State v. Iowa State UNDER 50 | 0-45 | Win | 100 | 121 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State is an under team. They are well-coached, and Klieman knows the best way for his team to stay in games and win is slow the game down and win with defense and great special teams play. Kansas State wants to run the ball a lot, but Iowa State has the best run defense in the Big 12. The Wildcats aren't likely to have much success on the ground. Iowa State has slowed their tempo down a lot this year. The Cyclones rank 106th in the nation in tempo. I don't think they'll be too aggressive on offense either. Look for both defenses to have the upper hand here. The early forecast calls for a chance of rain and some wind here too. That would just be a bonus for the under. Take the under. |
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11-21-20 | Kansas State +11 v. Iowa State | 0-45 | Loss | -107 | 61 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Kansas State* Chris Klieman is a really good coach. Klieman is 12-3 ATS as an underdog in his time as Kansas State head coach thus far. He proved he could win at a very high rate at North Dakota State, and now he is maximizing talent at Kansas State. As an underdog of 6.5 points or more, Klieman's Kansas State teams are a perfect 8-0 ATS. Matt Campbell's teams have been great as an underdog, but he has been subpar when laying bigger numbers. Five of the last six games between these two teams have finished with a margin of 5 points or less. The only one that wasn't that close was last year when Kansas State won by 10 points at home. Iowa State's special teams are at a big disadvantage against Kansas State and that is an area that is overlooked by many. I like Iowa State as a team, but they are favored by 11 here with a total in the mid 40's. They are up against a high quality team that is very well coached. I have to take the points in what should be a lower scoring game. Take Kansas State. |
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11-21-20 | UCLA v. Oregon -13 | 35-38 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star NCAA FB ATS Play of the Week* The UCLA Bruins are coming off a strange Sunday afternoon contest against Cal where the Bruins defense was amazing. They allowed only 2.8 ypp in that game. Was that more about Cal or UCLA's defense improving? I suspect it was more about Cal. UCLA gave up 525 yards to Colorado in game one. They couldn't even slow them down. This Oregon offense is far better than that Colorado defense. Oregon actually ranks first in the nation in yards per play. It is only a two game sample size, and I don't think the Ducks are the top offense in the country, but they are very good. This is an Oregon offense that can break a lot of big gainers. UCLA has given up a ton of explosive plays in recent years, and I expect more of the same this year. Dorian Thompson Robinson is talented, but he makes too many mistakes and turns the football over a bunch. This Oregon defense is loaded in the secondary and I think they'll force some turnovers here. The market is too high on UCLA coming off the surprising win over Cal. This is slightly shorter rest for UCLA, and they are going to play the best team in the PAC 12. The line here is too short. Take Oregon. |
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