For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-21-20 | California v. Oregon State UNDER 53 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Cal picked up 2.8 yards per play on UCLA in their season opener. When I first saw that number I had to do a double take. UCLA's defense is very weak, and Cal could do nothing against them. Oregon State's defense fought hard against Washington on Saturday night. The Beavers aren't a great defense by any means, but with a total set this high against Cal, I think they can slow them down plenty to keep this under. The Oregon State offense is pretty good on the ground, but the passing attack is a real problem right now. Their quarterback has shown no signs of being comfortable in this offense. Cal's defensive front is a strong one. I like the line value here. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-21-20 | Rice v. North Texas OVER 62 | 17-27 | Loss | -110 | 84 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't even close. North Texas is going to snap the ball as quickly as they possibly can. The Mean Green have yet to play a game this year that didn't have a final total of at least 70 points. Rice is definitely a slower paced team, and the Owls will look to run the ball quite a bit here. Still, the Owls should break some big plays against a woeful North Texas defense. Additionally, North Texas will break some explosive plays against a questionable Rice run defense here as well. This total has been bet down to the point I have to back the over. A total in the low 60's with one team (North Texas) snapping the ball every 19 seconds is an automatic look to the over. Take the over here. |
|||||||
11-21-20 | Indiana v. Ohio State -20.5 | 35-42 | Loss | -105 | 57 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Ohio State* The Indiana Hoosiers are 4-0 so far this year. Tom Allen is a good coach, and I like what he is doing with this program. Still, this is a very big step up in class for the Hoosiers. Indiana is a regression candidate. They are 4-0 on the season, but they actually have a -0.02 yards per play margin. Indiana hasn't gained more than 5.6 yards per play on offense in any of their four games so far this year. They are averaging only 2.66 yards per carry on the season. Ohio State has a good pass rush, and the Indiana offensive line is banged up right now. Michael Penix is likely to be under pressure here. Indiana's secondary is a weakness. They haven't played teams who could really exploit that weakness so far this year. Ohio State absolutely can take advantage of that weakness though. The Buckeyes have shown they have figured out this Indiana defense in recent seasons. Ohio State has scored at least 49 points in the last three contests against Indiana. The Buckeyes should put up a big number again this week. Indiana has been great against the spread, and that has made public perception of them too high this season. They lost the box score badly against Penn State. Indiana doesn't have even close to the level of talent Ohio State has. The Buckeyes should be looking to prove a point after losing focus in the second half against Rutgers. They aren't likely to overlook Indiana because of their top ten ranking coming into this game. Take Ohio State. |
|||||||
11-21-20 | LSU v. Arkansas OVER 64 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas is playing at a really fast pace of late. Arkansas is using only 22.62 seconds between snaps. The Razorbacks have been inconsistent on offense, but LSU has been awful defensively all season. LSU is giving up a whopping 7.21 yards per play so far this year. The Tigers have allowed 38 plays of 20 yards or more in only five games! Arkansas will get a lot of plays here, and they should break some big gainers. LSU's offense is still very good. LSU is 38th in the nation in yards per play on offense, and they have been up against a few good defenses already this year. I see this as a back and forth game. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-21-20 | Illinois v. Nebraska OVER 59 | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Illinois Fighting Illini gave up more than 600 yards and 42 points against Nebraska last year. That was a 42-38 game. Two years ago when these teams played it was Nebraska 54-35 over Illinois. Why is this total set so low? Nebraska has played three good defenses this year. They faced Ohio State, Northwestern, and Penn State. Nebraska struggled offensively in these games, but I expect the Cornhuskers to put up a big number here against a terrible Illinois defense. Also, Illinois is expected to get back starting quarterback Brandon Peters. Isiah Williams is also expected to see some time as a great running threat at quarterback. I think the fact that both of these teams have played some lower scoring games early this year has led to this total being lower than it should be. Early in the week the weather looked bad for this game, but now there is just a 25% chance of a light shower and very little wind. Take the over here. |
|||||||
11-21-20 | East Carolina -3.5 v. Temple | 28-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play East Carolina* The East Carolina Pirates aren't a good team. This isn't me betting on East Carolina. It's me betting against Temple. Rod Carey's team is a mess. Temple has all kinds of guys who started at the beginning of the season out now. There are several injuries. There are several COVID issues. Most notably, Temple is without star quarterback Anthony Russo. They are also without their 2nd and 3rd string quarterbacks. Temple will start fourth string freshman quarterback Matt Duncan. Temple's 2nd and 3rd stringers played very poorly in recent games, and I don't think Duncan will be the answer either. Unlike in the past, Temple doesn't have a good defense to cover up their offensive woes. Temple is allowing 6.29 yards per play this year. They lost nearly all of their best guys from last year's defense. East Carolina's Holton Ahlers is a pretty good quarterback, and the Pirates should be able to score here. I don't see Temple being able to keep up with a banged up offensive line and a 4th string quarterback. Take East Carolina. |
|||||||
11-20-20 | Purdue v. Minnesota OVER 59 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 101 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Minnesota defense is so bad right now, I believe everyone they play will be able to put up quite a few points. Minnesota has allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just four games. The Golden Gophers linebackers are weak, and they are being exposed by opponents on a weekly basis. Minnesota still has a good quarterback and good wide receivers, and I think they can move the ball here on a subpar Purdue secondary. Both coaches here are good offensive minds, and the weather looks good for this matchup. Take the over here. |
|||||||
11-19-20 | Cardinals v. Seahawks -3 | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 34 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Arizona Cardinals are coming off a thrilling win that they probably didn't deserve over the Buffalo Bills. Arizona won an overtime thriller at home against Seattle in the first game too. They were also pretty fortunate to win that game. Seattle is coming off back to back bad performances. The Seahawks are in circle the wagon mode here, and I think we get a much stronger effort from them this week. Seattle has been hurting themselves with turnovers. Russell Wilson has to play better. I think he will in this one. The Cardinals secondary is average at best. The Seahawks receivers should be running open throughout this game. Seattle at only a field goal is a discount here. We're buying low on a team with a high upside off two bad performances. Also, stock on Arizona is very high right now. Take Seattle. |
|||||||
11-18-20 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan -1 | 52-44 | Loss | -110 | 52 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Central Michigan* Western Michigan is coming off the huge comeback win over Toledo last week. They are riding high into this one. Central Michigan has been beaten two years in a row by Western Michigan, and this is a big rivalry game. Central Michigan was tremendous ATS last year even though they had a terrible turnover margin. I think McElwain is doing a great job with this team, and I'm looking for spots to back them this year. Western Michigan padded their stats against a terrible Akron team in game one. Central Michigan has two nice wins over Ohio and on the road at Northern Illinois. I think this is a nice situational spot for the home team, and I like the short number here. Take Central Michigan. |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Ravens -6.5 v. Patriots | 17-23 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on the Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens have a great rushing attack, and New England has been really weak when it comes to defending the run this year. The Patriots rank 22nd in ypc allowed so far this season. Baltimore is third in the NFL in yards per carry, and we know they are more than willing to continue to pound it on the ground if necessary. New England has very little to play for right now. The Patriots are in a spot they haven't been accustomed to being in for a very long time. They are clearly not the best team in the AFC East, and they are very likely to miss the playoffs. John Harbaugh's teams has game planned very well for their matchups against New England in the past, and New England is far less talented on both sides of the ball this season. Baltimore has shown the ability to beat subpar teams comfortably on many occasions. I'll lay the number here with the much better team. Take the Ravens. |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Seahawks +3 v. Rams | 16-23 | Loss | -120 | 13 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Seattle* The Seattle Seahawks play a bunch of close games, so being able to grab the points here with a great quarterback coming off a loss is the play I'm making in this contest. Russell Wilson is 23-9-2 ATS as an underdog. Wilson's teams aren't dogs very often, and they have been great in this role. Additionally, Wilson is also 24-12-4 ATS coming off a loss in his career. Seattle didn't play well last week in Buffalo, but this was always the game that meant more to them. I would expect them to come with a much better effort here. The LA Rams defense is pretty good, but I think it is a bit overvalued right now. The Rams haven't faced many good offenses, and several of the teams they have played have been badly banged up offensively when they faced them. Seattle is going to challenge this secondary in a big way. The LA Rams haven't beaten anyone good this year. They have beaten the NFC East and the Chicago Bears thus far. They lost a tight one to Buffalo. They lost to the 49ers in a poor performance. They also lost in a turnover fest at Miami. Seattle's defense isn't good, but they should improve some with Carlos Dunlap and Jamal Adams coming into the fold now. I think the Seahawks bounce back here. They have far more weapons on offense and I like their upside. Take Seattle. |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Broncos v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | 12-37 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders offense is much better this year. Derek Carr has decided to take a lot more shots downfield, and it has made this offense work. Carr has turned into a solid quarterback, and he certainly has some good weapons around him. The Denver Broncos have been giving up a lot of big plays of late, and Las Vegas has been getting those big gainers. Denver's defense has been a disappointment. Las Vegas is favored here, and I do believe they should win this game. Denver has been able to put up a lot of points when trailing in the second half this year. Drew Lock is the king of the late game touchdown. Sometimes it has led to them coming back and winning late. Other times it has just let to the over cashing or Denver covering as an underdog ATS. Lock has a lot of weapons around him, and Denver has been playing quicker in recent weeks. Las Vegas still has a bad defense, especially in the secondary. I think Denver will be able to take advantage. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-15-20 | Texans v. Browns UNDER 51.5 | 7-10 | Win | 100 | 94 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans on Sunday. Cleveland played in one major weather game earlier this year and lost to the Las Vegas Raiders 16-6. The two teams had 4.7 and 4.4 YPP. The weather for Sunday calls for 20 mph sustained winds and gusts of 30 mph. There is also a 60 percent chance of rain during the game. The rain would help, but the wind is the big deal here. The Texans offense isn't very good if they have to be more conservative. Watson has to be able to throw it around. It shouldn't be as easy as normal to do that in this game. Cleveland's defense has gotten a little healthier of late, and I think this unit is a little better than their season stats look. Neither team plays all that fast to begin with, and they will have to play more conservatively with the weather like this. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Oregon State v. Washington UNDER 58 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 129 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Oregon State wants to play slowly and run the football a lot. The Beavers were forced out of that style in the second half against Washington State, but they will try to control the ball and move slowly. Washington is a team I like to be an under team with Jimmy Lake as their head coach. He wants to run the football and win with defense. Look for this team to be very physical and look to move the ball gradually down the field on long drives. The clock should be running a lot in this one. Washington has an elite secondary and Oregon State is unlikely to get much through the air. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Oregon v. Washington State UNDER 59.5 | 43-29 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I don't see Washington State having the same kind of offensive success against Oregon that they had against Oregon State. Oregon's defense is the best in the Pac 12 on paper. The Ducks secondary is arguably the best in the country. As good as De Laura looked in week one against the Beavers, he shouldn't have as easy of a time against the Ducks. I also want to note that Washington State played at a very slow pace in their week one win. This isn't going to be the aerial attack fast paced offense it was under Mike Leach. They will run the ball a lot more, and I expect them to play at a slower than average tempo. The early weather report calls for strong winds in this game, and that is another positive for the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | SMU v. Tulsa +100 | 24-28 | Win | 100 | 21 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tulsa* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane had their game postponed last weekend due to COVID issues at Navy. Tulsa was extremely fortunate to win two weeks ago on a Friday against East Carolina at home. They looked past that game, and it nearly cost them. Now they have 15 days between games, and I expect a much stronger effort from Tulsa here. SMU is completely reliant on their passing attack. The Mustangs can throw it around, but Tulsa has a good defensive line and good safeties at the back of the defense as well. The weather here calls for winds of 16 mph which could be enough to hurt SMU a touch also. Tulsa's ground game is much improved this year, and I see that as an edge for them here. SMU isn't good at stopping the run at all. SMU hasn't looked very good when they play against the other better teams in the AAC. SMU has put up some big numbers on weak teams. I like the home team here. Take Tulsa on the moneyline. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico OVER 61 | 27-20 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Nevada Wolf Pack aerial attack really impresses me. Carson Strong is a really good fit for the air raid, and he has one of the best wide receivers in the country in Romeo Doubs. New Mexico was just torched through the air by a Hawaii team that isn't great in the passing game. New Mexico has already allowed eight plays of 40 yards or more in two games! This Lobos defense is really bad. New Mexico plays very fast, and there should be quite a few possessions in this game. Take the over here. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Northwestern v. Purdue UNDER 51 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 22 h 55 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here calls for winds of 20 mph during the game with gusts to 30 mph. There is also a 60-70% chance of rain during the game. That kind of weather can really change a game. Purdue is unsure if they will have Rondale Moore back for this game. He has been sidelined for undisclosed reasons. Purdue's running game has been very weak and the weather should hurt the passing attack. Northwestern has a better quarterback this year, but they still aren't taking very many risks offensively. The Wildcats are actually playing at a slower pace this year than they did a year ago. This Northwestern defense is elite. They are 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Pat Fitzgerald's teams are always good on defense, and Northwestern has great veteran leaders at linebacker this year. With these conditions, I'm on the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Baylor v. Texas Tech UNDER 58 | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Baylor Bears are a defensive-minded team. Baylor averages only 4.71 yards per play on offense. The Bears are allowing 3 sacks per game. Baylor also isn't getting many big plays. Texas Tech offensively has been a big disappointment. They haven't gotten the good quarterback play they expected. They have struggled to get explosive plays as well. The weather here is a big reason for the play. The winds here are expected to be 25 mph sustained with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is some intense wind, and it will make both teams far more conservative. High totals with a lot of wind have been great under plays in the past, and I like the value here. Neither team has a good running game, and the passing game should be more difficult here with the weather conditions. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Colorado v. Stanford -6.5 | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 73 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Colorado Buffaloes did play well in week one against UCLA, but UCLA did their absolute best to hand the game right over to Colorado. Colorado was the beneficiary of 4 UCLA turnovers. Most of them were in their own end to give Colorado free scores. UCLA finished with 7.4 yards per play against a Colorado defense that didn't look good at all. Stanford's game was misleading against Oregon. The Cardinal blew several really good scoring opportunities. Jet Toner (great name) missed 4 field goals. Stanford had 7.2 ypp against Oregon so they did move the ball well even without starting QB Davis Mills. Mills is questionable for this game and that is certainly why the line is so short. Still, if Mills plays this line goes up quite a bit. If he doesn't, I think this is still a good price. The Cardinal have a lot more talent than Colorado. Perception is too high on Colorado after their opening game win. I think this line is an overreaction. Take Stanford. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 48 | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* UTEP will play about as slow as anyone in the country this year. Coach Dimel is looking to try to save the defense which isn't deep. They'll run the football and attempt to use the clock and win low scoring games. It's the recipe his old school (Kansas State) uses to win games. UTSA is much improved on defense, and the area where they have been susceptible is through the air, but I don't see UTEP being able to take advantage of that weakness. Look for both defenses to have the edge here in what should be a game where both teams struggle in the red zone. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | TCU v. West Virginia UNDER 45.5 | 6-24 | Win | 100 | 15 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The West Virginia Mountaineers won 20-17 over TCU late last year in a game where neither team got to 300 yards of total offense. I think the defenses will be ahead of the offenses again here. TCU didn't look very good defensively early in the season, but in their last couple games they have rounded into form. Gary Patterson is a defensive-minded coach, so his defense improving at this stage of the season shouldn't be a surprise. West Virginia ranks in the top ten nationally in all major defensive categories. They haven't played a tough schedule, but this TCU offense isn't good either. TCU lacks playmakers at the skill positions on offense. I see this as a lower scoring battle where both teams struggle to get into the end zone. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Miami-FL v. Virginia Tech OVER 67.5 | 25-24 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Virginia Tech Hokies run defense has been awful this year. Miami has big play potential in the backfield at all times. Virginia Tech has allowed 35 plays of 20 yards or more on the year. The Hokies are allowing 5.16 yards per carry on the year. Miami is allowing huge plays on defense this year too. This Hurricanes defense is far worse than they have been in recent seasons. Miami has allowed a whopping 37 plays of 20 yards or more already this season. Both Virginia Tech and Miami are much improved on offense this season. Miami is playing faster with King at quarterback as well. Both of these teams rank in the top 15 in the country in explosive plays on offense. Expect a lot of big plays both ways. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Indiana v. Michigan State OVER 52 | 24-0 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers passing attack looked very good last week. I wasn't sure if Penix was going to be consistent as a passer, but he looked great against what should be at least a decent Michigan secondary last week. Indiana's single biggest strength on offense is their pass catchers. They have tremendous wide receivers and they have a lot of size. That will be very tough for Michigan State to matchup against this week. Michigan State has been known as a defensive juggernaut in recent seasons, but this team is far different. They allowed 38 to Rutgers and 49 to Iowa. It's true the offense and its miscues played a big role in those scores, but this defense is no longer any better than mediocre. Michigan State will have to throw the ball often here. Indiana's run defense is very strong, but I do think their secondary can be beaten by many teams. Since I think Indiana will be ahead here, that should put the Spartans in passing downs for much of the game. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-14-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Marshall -23 | 14-42 | Win | 100 | 14 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Marshall* The Marshall Thundering Herd host Middle Tennessee State on the 50th anniversary of the tragic plane crash that killed 75 onboard in 1970. Marshall has always really gotten up for the "75 game" every single year. This is a game that means a ton to the players and the entire community in Huntington, West Virginia. The quotes that have come out of that locker room this week certainly make you think that all eyes on this Saturday as a chance to make the community proud. I don't typically make wagers because of motivational factors, and that isn't the sole reason for this play by any means, still it is notable. I will also note that Marshall has lost to MTSU the last two years and many of these players mentioned that this week as well. MTSU came and won here two years ago when MTSU was a very strong team. Marshall has a great chance to blow out MTSU here as the Blue Raiders program has fallen apart this season. MTSU has already lost by 17 to North Texas at home, which is an ugly loss. They also lost 42-0 to Army and 47-14 against Troy. Marshall has the best defense in Conference USA. The Thundering Herd are going to key in on O'Hara in the run game and try to make MTSU beat them in the passing game. This is a mismatch and there are motivational factors involved. Take Marshall. |
|||||||
11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 62 | 31-38 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Ball State Cardinals lost 38-31 against Miami last week. Eastern Michigan lost 27-23 against Kent State last week. Ball State is going to have quite a few high scoring games this year, but I think Eastern Michigan wants to do everything they can to keep games lower scoring this season. Eastern Michigan played slowly against Kent State, and the Eagles averaged only 4.5 yards per play in that game. They held Kent State to 27 points. Kent State was able to put up 62 points on Bowling Green on Tuesday night. Bowling Green averaged 5.8 yards per play on offense in that game, and I don't think Kent State's defense is very good. Eastern Michigan lacks playmakers on offense in a big way. Their offensive line has been a strength in the past, but it isn't anymore. Ball State's secondary was expected to be pretty good this year. They weren't good in week one, but I think they'll look better here. Since I expect Ball State to have the lead, I think they'll slow their tempo down later in the game here. This total is posted 5 points higher than the posted total when these two played last year. The final score in that game was 29-23. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Dolphins v. Cardinals UNDER 49.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the WEEK* The Miami Dolphins defense has been really good since they got healthy in the secondary. They spent a lot of money in the offseason to upgrade their secondary, and it has definitely worked. They have a defensive-minded coaching staff. Miami's pass defense grades out as a top five unit if you exclude the first couple weeks of the year. Arizona has played fast this year, but they haven't had the explosive offense many expected. They have gotten yards in smaller chunks. I do think they'll be able to run the ball pretty well here, but that uses up the clock and I think they'll have to settle for some field goals. Miami's offense with Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback is a question mark. I'm surprised the team moved on from Fitzpatrick so soon when they were doing pretty well. I also will note that the Miami offense has faced the single easiest slate of defenses so far this year. Miami's offense still has a questionable offensive line and that could be a problem going forward. The line has moved up here, and I'm happy to take the under at this number. Miami will move slowly and play conservatively. Arizona has been contained by the better defenses they have played. Take the under here. |
|||||||
11-08-20 | Giants v. Washington Football Team -2.5 | 23-20 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The New York Giants are coming off two heartbreaking losses. New York has fought very hard in both of those games, and the Giants have fallen just short against Philadelphia and Tampa Bay. Washington lost by a single point (on a failed 2 point conversion attempt) in the first game between these two teams. Since that time, Washington has gotten healthier. Washington has Antonio Gibson in the backfield looking good now, and their defensive line is much healthier again. Ron Rivera, their head coach, has also completed his chemo treatments and he is able to spend more time with the team. Washington hasn't been good this year, but with a win here they would be in a good spot in the woeful NFC East. This is a quick revenge chance for them. New York played on Monday night, while Washington is coming off a bye week. That's a huge advantage for the home team. Take Washington. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | New Mexico v. Hawaii OVER 60.5 | 33-39 | Win | 100 | 129 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos have a new coaching staff and they want to play as fast as they possibly can. New Mexico only used 22.75 seconds between plays last weekend. The Lobos did get 7 plays of 20 yards or more in game one. Hawaii will play quickly under Todd Graham. They struggled badly on offense last week against Wyoming, but this New Mexico defense is far worse than that Wyoming defense. New Mexico gave up 7.52 yards per play against a very ordinary San Jose State offense last week. Look for a lot of points from both sides. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Washington State v. Oregon State -1.5 | 38-28 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Oregon State* The Washington State Cougars don't have a lot going for them coming into this season. Washington State lost a lot on offense. Their best players are their running backs, but this is a team that wants to throw the football a lot. They are young and very inexperienced at quarterback and wide receiver. I like the job Jonathan Smith has done at Oregon State. The Beavers run the football very well, and they return multiple very good running backs. Look for them to run the ball well here against a weak Washington State defensive front. Washington State defensively is trying to transition from a defense that was small and quick over to a big physical defense. These transitions are often difficult. While Rolovich might do a good job in the long term in Pullman, I think it will be a rough first season. Take Oregon State. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | South Alabama v. Coastal Carolina UNDER 56.5 | 6-23 | Win | 100 | 126 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I have really been impressed with Coastal Carolina this year. How could you not be? Coastal Carolina is due for some regression to the mean on offense with their red zone and third down conversion numbers. Still, it is important to point out how much this Coastal defense has improved. Their defensive front is getting in the backfield a bunch, and they are up against a weak S Bama offensive line. Both of these teams are very run heavy and they play slowly. Look for a lot of running clock in this one. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Stanford v. Oregon UNDER 54 | 14-35 | Win | 100 | 126 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 star Play Under* I'm very high on the Oregon defense this year. The Ducks have arguably the best secondary in the nation. They also have a good pass rush and good inside linebackers to stuff the run. It should be very hard to score on this team this season. Stanford always plays slowly and I would expect the same this year. Stanford's defense looks improved especially in the secondary. The Oregon offense is down a notch after they lost Justin Herbert. Look for a more conservative game plan from the Ducks this season. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | UCLA v. Colorado UNDER 57 | 42-48 | Loss | -110 | 114 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes don't have a good option at all at quarterback. They also have a new coaching staff who really wants to run the football and try to control the clock. I look for the Buffaloes offense to be much more conservative this year. They do have depth at the running back spot, and they are likely to use that early and often. UCLA has DTR at quarterback and he should be pretty good this year, but he doesn't have much talent around him, and the offensive line in front of him is a weak one. The UCLA defense isn't great by any means, but they are better than last year. I don't think the market knows how much Colorado will run the football this year and play slowly. Look for them to grind away in this game. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Western Kentucky v. Florida Atlantic UNDER 39.5 | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Atlantic Owls have played three games this year. The final scores in those games have been: 21-17, 20-9, and 24-3. Western Kentucky has scored 14 points or less on offense in their last four straight games. These two teams have shown the ability to play in some very low scoring games. The tropical storm in the Gulf of Mexico will change this game. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 25-30 mph in this game with gusts to 40 mph. There is an 80 percent chance for rain and there could even be some heavy rain and thunderstorms during this one. These two teams are already fairly conservative on offense, but they will likely be even more conservative here. It will be very tough to kick field goals in this weather. Neither of these teams get many big plays to begin with, and in this weather that should be cut down even more. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Oklahoma State v. Kansas State UNDER 51.5 | 20-18 | Win | 100 | 122 h 25 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Oklahoma State's game against Texas last weekend was deceptive. It was a very high scoring game, but Texas only gained a measly 3.8 yards per play. Oklahoma State turned the ball over in their own end a bunch, and they also gave up a kick return touchdown. Kansas State is a good under team with their running the football and very slow paced offense. Oklahoma State is a very run heavy team as well, and I think Kansas State will try to load up the box in this one. The early forecast for this game calls for 25 mph winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That would be a big boost to the under as well. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-07-20 | Michigan v. Indiana UNDER 54.5 | 21-38 | Loss | -107 | 14 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines defense was a disappointment last week against Michigan State. I think they'll play better here. Michigan has a strong defensive line. They are up against an Indiana team that is really struggling on the offensive front. Penix isn't a bad quarterback for Indiana, but he hasn't had much time to throw. Stevie Scott hasn't had anywhere to run either. Michigan's offensive line is a major weakness this year too, and Indiana has a solid defensive front seven. I don't know that Michigan has the tools to make Indiana pay for their relative weakness in the secondary. Both of these teams have struggled with getting big plays offensively in recent years. These are two teams with defensive-minded head coaches. I think this one should be around 51 so I'll take the value here. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-06-20 | San Jose State v. San Diego State -9 | 28-17 | Loss | -106 | 31 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on San Diego State* I've been really impressed with the San Diego State running game so far this year. The Aztecs are averaging more than 7 yards per carry this season. This is an offense that looks much improved from a year ago, thanks in large part to the improvement on the offensive line. San Jose State has looked good through two games. I do like the job Coach Brennan has done in San Jose. Still, this is a lot of respect for them after beating an Air Force team that isn't very good and then winning against a really bad New Mexico team. This is a big step up in class. San Diego State's defense is arguably the best in the Mountain West. San Jose State is young and they have a bad offensive line. They lost their star on defense from last year (Aguayo) and that should hurt them in this game. Take San Diego State. |
|||||||
11-04-20 | Buffalo -9.5 v. Northern Illinois | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 64 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Buffalo* Lance Leipold is a tremendous head coach. I rate him as the best coach in the MAC. The Buffalo Bulls are going to be able to run the ball on everyone in this league this season. They have a top 10 running attack in the country. A great offensive line and amazing depth at the running back position. Northern Illinois has trended downward in recent seasons. The Huskies defense is no better than average. Northern Illinois has a weak defensive line, and that is a big problem against Buffalo. The Bulls allowed only 2.9 ypc last year, and they'll be great against the run again this year. Northern Illinois doesn't have a big play offense to keep pace with Buffalo here. Look for Buffalo to just keep the ball and wear down this Northern Illinois defense. Take Buffalo. |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Saints v. Bears UNDER 45.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -108 | 125 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears have been great at turning games into low scoring contests. Even in an NFL environment where there have been a lot of high scoring games this year, Chicago has seen 5 of their 7 games finish at 39 points or fewer. The New Orleans offense ranks 15th in the NFL in yards per play. New Orleans ranks 11th in yards per play allowed, but they have faced the toughest schedule of offenses in the NFL so far this year. The Chicago offense ranks 31st in the NFL in yards per play. They don't have a good option at quarterback. This offense has been a mess all year long. These two teams rank 25th and 27th in the NFL in explosive plays. These are teams who are far more likely to gradually move the ball down the field than do it in big chunks. The weather is calling for winds of 12 or 13 mph with gusts to 22 mph for this game. That helps the under as well. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Patriots v. Bills UNDER 43 | 21-24 | Loss | -106 | 107 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Four of the Patriots six games have finished at 39 points or fewer so far this year. The Patriots offense has all sorts of problems right now. The offensive line is badly banged up. Cam Newton isn't playing well and they don't have another good option to turn to. The Patriots have to be able to run the ball to move it consistently, but opponents are daring them to throw it and loading up the box. The Bills will do the same. Buffalo's offense is shorthanded right now as well. Buffalo has to be able to throw to move the ball consistently, because this running game of Buffalo isn't good. The New England secondary is a relative strength too. The weather here should be a problem. Some showers could be in the area, but the big deal here is the wind. Sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts of 30-35 mph will make both teams far more conservative here. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns UNDER 52 | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 83 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cleveland Browns and Las Vegas Raiders meet on Sunday in Cleveland. The story here will be the weather. The chance of rain is about 50% throughout this game, but that isn't the problem here for scoring. The problem is the huge amount of wind. The current average of forecasts I use (4 different weather sites) is 26 mph sustained winds with gusts of 43 mph. That would become one of the windiest games we have seen in a long time. We have seen under money come in on this game already, and I think it continues to come in as we get closer to game time. This kind of wind changes the game plan for both teams. Baker Mayfield likes to throw the ball downfield, but he is without Odell Beckham Jr. here and it will be extremely hard to throw in this kind of wind. It is important to note that the wind is expected to be blowing from side to side in the stadium, and that makes it even tougher for quarterbacks. The Raiders passing attack has really impressed me this year, but it isn't likely to be nearly as successful as normal in these conditions. The Raiders offensive line has struggled in run blocking. Take the under here. |
|||||||
11-01-20 | Steelers +4.5 v. Ravens | 28-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Pittsburgh Steelers go to Baltimore in a huge AFC showdown on Sunday. Baltimore has been disappointing so far this year. The Ravens passing game ranks second worst in the NFL in success rate. Lamar Jackson seems like he isn't completely healthy at this point. Baltimore hasn't been a bad team by any means, but they have struggled offensively compared to a year ago. Pittsburgh's run defense ranks first in the NFL in success rate allowed. The Steelers are very good against the run, and they don't give up many big plays. Look for the Steelers to do everything they can to force Jackson to throw the football here. The Steelers have a lot of weapons on offense. They are deep at running back, and they have all kinds of very good weapons at wide receiver. Pittsburgh is a whopping 20-7-2 ATS in their last 29 as an underdog. The Steelers are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 as a road underdog. In a game that means so much and I see these teams as very even, I'm happy to grab the points. Take Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Nevada v. UNLV OVER 57 | 37-19 | Loss | -110 | 129 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I really like Carson Strong in the air raid offense of Nevada. Nevada's passing attack couldn't be stopped against a Wyoming defense that is clearly better than this UNLV defense. UNLV allowed 5.67 yards per play against San Diego State offense that has major problems. UNLV should improve some offensively, and I think they'll have to pick up their pace as they are likely playing from behind in this game. The Rebels have several options at quarterback this season. I had this one in the low 60's. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Arkansas v. Texas A&M UNDER 57 | 31-42 | Loss | -105 | 126 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I've been really impressed by the Arkansas secondary so far this year. They have faced some good passing attacks and really shut them down. Their performance against Ole Miss was particularly impressive. Barry Odom is doing a great job with this defense. Kellen Mond and Texas A&M are inconsistent on offense. I see this being a team that can look great on some days and terrible on others. Arkansas should give them enough looks that frustrate them and make them less efficient than normal. Arkansas on offense has only 11 plays of 20 yards or more in four games. The Razorbacks don't get big chunks, and Texas A&M is a well-coached defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Boise State -13.5 v. Air Force | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 21 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Boise State* The Boise State Broncos looked tremendous in shutting down Utah State last week. Boise State had 6.7 yards per play to only 2.9 yards per play for Utah State. The Broncos defense totally dominated that game even when they were far ahead, which really impressed me. Boise State has a ton of skill position talent on offense. They are good and deep at quarterback, and their backs and wideouts are very solid. Air Force is without star running back Kaden Remsburg here. Remsburg has a collarbone injury. Jackson their fullback is also banged up and is questionable here. Their center has a sprained ankle and is expected to miss this game. They have two other linemen who are questionable due to contract tracing for COVID 19. This team is shorthanded right now. Hammond isn't at quarterback this year either, and QB is a major weakness for the team now. Boise State is a team that could be part of the major bowl picture, and they'll need to be at the top of their game weekly. Take Boise State here. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 59 | 41-34 | Loss | -109 | 26 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Texas Longhorns and Oklahoma State Cowboys are both significantly better on offense than they have been in recent seasons. They returned a lot of talent defensively, and Texas upgraded at the defensive coordinator spot. Oklahoma State is a run heavy team, so the clock should keep ticking on a lot of their offensive plays. Texas will give up some yards here, but they have been solid at not giving up big rushing plays. Texas' offensive line hasn't held up well against the best defensive lines they have played this year. I think this Oklahoma State defensive front gets in the backfield quite a bit in this contest. The weather here calls for winds of 15-17 mph which is a bit of a help for the under as well. The recent high scores between these two has given us some value on the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Northwestern v. Iowa OVER 45 | 21-20 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* With a new offensive coordinator this year, Northwestern is playing much quicker. The Wildcats offense looked great against Maryland in game one. They averaged 6.47 yards per play in that contest. Iowa is clearly better on defense than Maryland, but Iowa's defense is definitely down from a couple years ago. Iowa still has enough weapons on offense to move the ball at least some of the time in this game. The posted total was set so low that with the pace Northwestern is playing at, I had to back the over here. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Indiana v. Rutgers UNDER 53.5 | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights only scored a bunch of points on Michigan State because Michigan State turned the ball over 7 times! Rutgers only managed 3.9 yards per play on offense. The Scarlet Knights will be improved on offense from a year ago (it would be hard not to be), but this offense isn't good. Rutgers will play at a relatively slow pace this year, and I would expect a lot of running plays. That plays into the strength of the Indiana defense, which is their front seven. Indiana has gotten so much better against the run in the last few years under Tom Allen. Indiana wasn't good offensively against Penn State. They averaged only 3.4 yards per play on offense. Again, it was Penn State's miscues that led to easier scores for Indiana. The Hoosiers will look quite a bit better on offense here, but their offensive line isn't very good. I think Penix and the skill position players will make some nice plays, but I don't think they totally dominate this Rutgers defense. This one is a few points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-31-20 | Central Florida v. Houston OVER 76.5 | 44-21 | Loss | -109 | 120 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UCF Knights games have been extremely high scoring this year. In fact, three of their five games have finished with 79 points or more. The Knights other two games finished with 60 and 70 points. UCF ranks third in the nation in tempo. They are averaging a whopping 7.05 yards per play. Houston's defense has been terrible against the pass, and UCF has plenty of weapons in the passing game. BYU put up 43 points on Houston, and BYU doesn't play at a quick pace. The UCF defense has disappointed this year. They have allowed 34 points or more in their last three games. Houston's weapons at skill positions on offense are very solid. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-29-20 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 51.5 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Southern Eagles play at an extremely slow pace. They are using nearly 33 seconds between plays, which would have ranked them as the slowest pace team in the nation last season. This is an extremely slow paced team that runs the football nearly 75% of the time. There will be a lot of running clock in this one. South Alabama is improved on offense, but they have played some really weak defense and they are due for some regression. They are converting on 49.32% of third down conversion attempts and that can't continue for a team that is getting behind the chains with as many big negative plays as they are right now. They are improved on offense, but they aren't this much better. South Alabama is also slower than the average team by quite a bit in terms of tempo. Some wind is expected for this one in Statesboro on Thursday night. Sustained winds of about 16 mph are a boost to the under. This midweek games have trended under through the years in college football. I see value on the under here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams UNDER 45 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The last two years these two teams have met and the final scores were 15-6 and 17-7. That certainly isn't the only reason I'm betting the under here, but it is a good start. The Chicago Bears offense ranks 30th in the NFL in yards per play. Chicago's offensive line is questionable, and the Rams do bring a lot of pressure. Look for the LA defensive line led by Aaron Donald to be in the backfield quite a bit in this one. Nick Foles hasn't been terrible, but he has been a game manager. They don't take a lot of shots downfield. Chicago moves pretty slowly, and has had to settle for field goals often in the red zone. The Rams offense is good, but they have played a lot of weaker defenses this year. That won't be the case in this one. Chicago has the best secondary in the league, and we've seen this secondary give Jared Goff a lot of trouble the last two seasons. Robert Woods is questionable here with an injury, and if he doesn't play or isn't 100 percent that slows this Rams offense down. This field has seen a bunch of low scoring games played on it. The referee crew in this one has also been very good to under bettors. Look for the defenses to have the upper hand here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-25-20 | 49ers v. Patriots UNDER 45.5 | 33-6 | Win | 100 | 122 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense has been a mess of late. Their offensive line is badly banged up now, and they can't keep the running game going as they were earlier in the season. New England has averaged only 5.3 yards per play in their last three contests. The Patriots had high scoring games against the Seahawks and Raiders, but those two teams have some of the highest scoring games of anyone in the NFL. The Patriots other three games have all finished at 36 points or lower. The 49ers have been playing slower of late. San Francisco ranks 27th in the NFL in tempo. The 49ers are trying to lean heavily on their running game. New England is good at not allowing big plays, so I think the 49ers drives will take quite a while in this one. New England runs the ball at the third highest rate as a percentage of plays. They also rank in the bottom 10 in tempo in their last three contests. Take the under here. |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 47.5 | 43-16 | Loss | -110 | 101 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The two times these teams met last year the final scores were 23-3 and 30-6. The Chiefs defense is better than most people realize. Kansas City is able to pressure the quarterback and they have a good pass defense. The Broncos lack a strong running game to be able to move the ball consistently on the Chiefs. The Denver offense is a mess. The Broncos may have won last weekend, but it was because of the defense and not the offense. The Denver defense is very strong on the defensive line. Denver doesn't allow many big plays. The other factor here is the weather. Snow is in the forecast for this game. Snow likely with wind as well. When you combine those two, it is a clear help for the under. I think this number drops through the week with the weather, and I like the chances of this being a lower scoring contest. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Panthers +7.5 v. Saints | 24-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Carolina* All Teddy Bridgewater has done as a starting quarterback in the NFL is cover spreads. Bridgewater is 30-10 ATS as a starting quarterback. He is 16-3 ATS on the road. He is 14-2 ATS as a road underdog. Now, he gets to play against his old team in New Orleans. Carolina has been very impressive so far this year. Matt Rhule is a great football coach, and he has this defense playing better than anyone would have expected. Carolina is 7th in the NFL in yards per play margin (New Orleans is 9th). The Panthers have played a lot of close games this year, and I don't think there is any reason to expect anything other than a close game again here. The New Orleans Saints haven't done a lot to convince me that they are a great team. Drew Brees can't throw the ball downfield anymore. The Saints may be without Michael Thomas again this week since he has a hamstring injury now too. If he does play, he won't be 100 percent. The Saints were very fortunate to beat the Chargers at home. New Orleans also lost at home by 7 to Green Bay. Carolina will play hard all the way, and we are getting more than a touchdown here. I think they at least keep this close. Take Carolina. |
|||||||
10-25-20 | Lions +2 v. Falcons | 23-22 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Lions* The Detroit Lions have held a double digit lead in every one of their games so far this year. Have they been good at blowing those leads? Of course they have. Still, the Lions are a highly competitive team, and they still have a lot to play for at this point in the season. Atlanta had one impressive game last week against Minnesota, but the Falcons are not a team I'd want to trust to win two straight contests. Atlanta has been terrible as a favorite, especially early in the season when the games have still mattered more for them. Atlanta is 4-20 ATS in their last 24 as a favorite in the first half of the NFL regular season. The Atlanta defense ranks at or near the bottom of the NFL in nearly every statistical category you can find. The Lions secondary isn't elite by any means, but it is middle of the road and Matt Ryan is slowing down at age 35. The Lions have found a good weapon out of the backfield in Swift, and Stafford is still a solid quarterback. With Golladay, the Lions offense is a much more potent unit. Take Detroit here. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Virginia v. Miami-FL -13.5 | 14-19 | Loss | -108 | 28 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Miami* The Virginia Cavs aren't the same team they were a year ago. Virginia already lost a lot, and now they are dealing with a bunch of major injuries. They have cluster injuries in the secondary. Virginia lost star quarterback Bryce Perkins from last year, and Armstrong was doing a good job in relief, but he is injured now as well. He is doubtful for this game, and his backup is also injured. Virginia is a mess at the quarterback spot right now. Virginia was fortunate to be in the game against Wake Forest last weekend. They were also blown away by NC State two weeks ago. The market is too high on Virginia now. This isn't the solid team it was a year ago. Miami clearly has a lot of playmakers and they are capable of putting up quite a few points here. Virginia lacks the strong defense to keep them in the game, and they are lacking firepower on offense. Take Miami. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Wyoming v. Nevada OVER 48 | Top | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 125 h 12 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Over* Nevada returns 10 starters on the offensive end this year. They will run the air raid with Mumme as their offensive coordinator. With a second year quarterback who looked good as a freshman, I expect their offensive numbers to be much better this season. Wyoming has two solid quarterback options in Chambers and Williams. The Wyoming offensive line is probably the best offensive line in the Mountain West. The Cowboys should be able to run the ball on nearly everyone in this conference. Wyoming's defense should be way down from a year ago, and that is the primary reason I think this total is several points too low. With more scoring in general this year, this is a very low posted total. I think both teams get into the mid 20's here at least. Take the over. TOP Rated play. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Iowa State +3.5 v. Oklahoma State | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 60 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Iowa State* Matt Campbell is 27-12 ATS as a head coach when getting 3 points or more. The Cyclones are catching 3.5 points here, and I think this should be a lower scoring (especially for the Big 12) game where both defenses play well. In this type of coin flip game, the 3.5 points can be very valuable. Oklahoma State is running the ball on 68% of their plays so far this year. Both West Virginia and Tulsa's defensive front seven have given Oklahoma State's offensive line trouble this year. The Iowa State front seven is the best front seven they have played yet. Iowa State can sometimes be beaten through the air, but this is a really good run defense. They are only allowing 2.9 ypc this year. Last year Oklahoma State won 34-27 at Iowa State. Iowa State actually had 30 first downs in that game to only 14 for Oklahoma State. Iowa State was -2 in turnover margin and the Cowboys won that game on a late pick six for the 7 point win. Iowa State's Brock Purdy has been excellent, and Breece Hall has really come on as a major weapon. Oklahoma State has had a long break, and they haven't been tested as much as Iowa State this year. I'll grab the points. Take Iowa State. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Baylor v. Texas UNDER 64 | Top | 16-27 | Win | 100 | 122 h 51 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* Texas has had several high scoring games that are very misleading. They went into 4 overtimes vs. Oklahoma, but both teams averaged less than 5 yards per play. They also had a bunch of special teams/defensive setups for scores against Texas Tech in a game that should have never been so high scoring. Baylor has a great defensive mind at head coach now and I think they can scheme their way to making Texas work hard. Also, Texas lost their top receiver due to injury. My number here is in the upper 50's. Take the under. TOP Rated play. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Auburn v. Ole Miss OVER 63.5 | 35-28 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Ole Miss is one of the best over teams in the country right now. Lane Kiffin's team was slowed down by the windy weather, a bunch of turnovers, and a really good Arkansas secondary last weekend. That made this total low enough to bet the over. Auburn's offense was better than the final score would indicate against South Carolina. It was their turnovers that really stopped them. Auburn averaged 5.8 yards per play. They are up against a much weaker defense in Ole Miss this week. The Ole Miss offense is the best offense Auburn has faced so far this year. While Auburn doesn't have a bad defense, it is clearly much weaker than it was a year ago. Take the over here. |
|||||||
10-24-20 | Temple v. Memphis OVER 69 | 29-41 | Win | 100 | 118 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* These two teams both rank in the top 15 in the country so far this year in tempo. Temple's defense has been a strength in recent years, but they lost nearly everything they had from a year ago. Memphis is going to score a lot of points on nearly everyone in this conference with their skill position talent and the tempo they play at on a consistent basis. Temple should be able to throw the ball on this Memphis secondary, especially if they are playing from behind. While this total is set at a high level, I had this one a few points higher. Look for a lot of points in this contest. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-23-20 | Tulsa -9.5 v. South Florida | 42-13 | Win | 100 | 100 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tulsa* I really like what I've seen from this Tulsa team so far this year. They rank number one in the nation in havoc defensively. The defensive front is much improved. They gave both the Oklahoma State and UCF offensive fronts a lot of trouble. South Florida has been without a bunch of players due to COVID every week this year. The Bulls really are a mess. They played some better last week against Temple, but I don't think Temple is a good team this year. USF already lost at home by 20 to East Carolina. Tulsa went on the road and could have upset Oklahoma State and then did pull the huge upset against UCF. Tulsa is in a different class than South Florida right now. I'm happy to lay the points here in a game I don't expect to be close. *Note this line has moved some during the week, but I would play this one up to -11.* |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45 | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Philadelphia Eagles have been able to score points when they get down early and need to comeback in the fourth quarter, but in other spots, they have struggled offensively. Philadelphia is 26th in the NFL in yards per play on offense. Carson Wentz isn't a bad quarterback, but he has been without an offensive line and many of the weapons around him all year. Miles Sanders and Alshon Jeffrey are out for this one. Jack Driscoll is also out on the line. Lane Johnson is expected to try to play, but he is far less than 100 percent. New York put up a big number on Dallas' defense, but who hasn't? The Giants have averaged less than 14 points per game in their other five games this year. This New York offense is awful. Saquon Barkley is missed badly, and Daniel Jones has been very weak as a passer. The Eagles still have a strong defensive front seven, and I don't think the Giants can consistently move the ball through the air on many teams. The Giants defense has shown signs of life lately. They have been especially strong against the run. This is a divisional game that does mean a lot to the teams since the NFC East is wide open. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-22-20 | Arkansas State +14 v. Appalachian State | 17-45 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Arkansas State* The Arkansas State Red Wolves lost a close one at Memphis earlier this year. They also won at Kansas State earlier this year. Arkansas State has proven they are more than capable of going on the road and playing well against quality teams. Appalachian State is a good team, but they aren't quite as good as they have been in some of their recent seasons. They have a good quarterback and a strong offensive front. Appalachian State should score a lot of points in this game. On the other end though, I don't think the Appalachian State defense is nearly as good as they were a year ago. They lost all 3 of their star linebackers from last year and they were the heart and soul of the defense. Arkansas State has two really good quarterbacks, and they have plenty of playmakers around them. The Red Wolves should be able to trade scores with Appalachian State for the majority of this game. At this large of a price, I have to back the road team that is a well-coached team. They are also more than capable of scoring a backdoor touchdown late if needed. Take Arkansas State. |
|||||||
10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys +107 | 38-10 | Loss | -100 | 71 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Cardinals/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys were going to be a favorite of 3.5 points or so in this game with a healthy Dak Prescott. Prescott was injured and now Andy Dalton steps in. Prescott will be missed, but I think this line is an overreaction. Andy Dalton is the best backup quarterback in the NFL. Dalton was a middle of the road starter for much of his time in Cincinnati. When Dalton is surrounded by decent players as he was earlier in his time with the Bengals, he can be effective. The Cowboys have amazing skill position talent on offense. He is set up for success here. Arizona's defense hasn't been tested so far this year. They have faced Washington, the Jets, and the banged up 49ers offense. This is going to be Arizona's toughest test by far when it comes to offensive talent they line up against. Dallas' defense is a problem, but I think they will use the running game more in this one. With Arizona struggling to stop the run, the Cowboys should be able to keep their defense off the field more often in this game. Arizona is a flawed team, and for them to be favored in Dallas doesn't make sense to me. I'll take Dallas on the moneyline at a plus money price. |
|||||||
10-18-20 | Rams v. 49ers OVER 51 | 16-24 | Loss | -114 | 88 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The San Francisco 49ers secondary is a mess right now. Miami put up 6.9 yards per play in a win over the 49ers last week. The Rams offense is a top ten offense in the NFL. I don't see the 49ers defense being able to stop the Rams passing attack. There are too many weapons for the Rams, and Sean McVay is good at scheming in a way to attack weaknesses. The Rams should put up a big number here. The 49ers are starting to get healthier on offense. Jimmy G was put in last week when he had little practice, and some of the weapons around him were missing. I think the 49ers offense can be much better this week. The Rams had a couple defensive players banged up in their win at Washington last week, and this is a Rams defense that is very thin at multiple positions. The Rams defense isn't nearly as good as they look on paper. They have faced a very weak slate of offenses. In fact, if you look at the offenses these two defenses have faced so far this year, they rank as the 2nd easiest and 3rd easiest slate of offenses according to Football Outsiders. These defenses are worse than they appear. I see a back and forth game here. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-18-20 | Packers v. Bucs OVER 54.5 | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 43 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Green Bay Packers offense has been tremendous so far this year. They are averaging 38 points per game thus far this season. Green Bay hasn't had Devante Adams for their last couple games, and he is their best weapon on offense. I don't think Tampa Bay has anyone who can slow Adams down on the outside. Aaron Rodgers has been in great form so far this season. He is willing to take a lot of deep chances, and in past seasons this Tampa secondary has given up a lot of big plays in the passing game. Tampa Bay's offense has been up against some very solid defenses so far this season. The Packers defense will be the worst defense they have faced so far this year. Tampa Bay's wide receivers are finally getting healthy, and this is one of the best groups of receivers in the NFL. I think Tampa will be able to move the ball consistently here too. Jerome Boger's crew is the referee crew for this game. The over is 106-74 (58.9%) in his games. They are known for their consistent pass interference calls on the defense. This is a high total, but I think both teams move the ball and cash in on big plays throughout. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | North Texas v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 66 | 52-35 | Win | 100 | 124 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the nation in tempo, and it isn't particularly close. This team is absolutely flying up and down the field. Their offense is solid. They haven't scored in the red zone at the rate you would expect or they would have scored even more points. That should improve over time. North Texas' defense might be the worst in the country. They give up big gainers constantly. MTSU has been inconsistent on offense this year, but against this North Texas defense they should be able to move the ball and score easily. MTSU's defense is very weak against the run, and that is the strength of the North Texas offense. I made this total in the low 70's, so I like the value here. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Virginia v. Wake Forest OVER 57.5 | 23-40 | Win | 100 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Wake Forest plays extremely fast. They want their game to be a shootout, and they have been pretty good at forcing those shootouts. Wake Forest has a good quarterback in Hartman and they have enough skill position players to give Virginia some trouble. The Cavs secondary isn't what it was a couple years ago. Virginia's starting quarterback is questionable here, and we may well see the backup here. That is a big reason why this total has moved down. I wouldn't have bet this game over the total at the opening line, but after the substantial drop this one is too good of a price for me to pass up. Virginia has sped up their pace of play this year. We have two teams ranked in the top 14 in tempo out of all the teams playing thus far this season. We have seen a lot of higher scoring games in college football this year, and a number this low in a Wake Forest game is an over bet for me unless they are playing an elite defense. They aren't in this one. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Duke v. NC State OVER 59 | 20-31 | Loss | -108 | 24 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Duke is playing 2.5 seconds faster between snaps than they were a year ago. We have seen a couple high scoring games from the Blue Devils in their last two contests. I think we will see another one here. Chase Brice is being more aggressive with the football. That can be good for the over because he throws pick sixes, and it can be good because Duke is getting more big plays than they did a year ago. These teams have given up 23 and 24 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. Both offenses rank in the top ten in explosive plays. We should see tempo and plenty of big gainers. The weather looks good in this one, and I had this one projected several points higher. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Louisville v. Notre Dame UNDER 64 | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 50 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast here plays a large role in me taking the under. Sustained winds of 22 mph with gusts to 30-35 mph are in the forecast for South Bend. That kind of weather really changes the game, and makes both offenses more predictable. In the long run, that kind of weather has been great for under bettors. Both of these teams play at a very slow tempo, so we shouldn't see too many possessions here. The Louisville defense has been bad this year, and I do think Notre Dame will score a decent amount of points here. Notre Dame's defense is pretty good, and Louisville should be more one dimensional than normal here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-17-20 | Liberty v. Syracuse OVER 53.5 | 38-21 | Win | 100 | 22 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames have a very good quarterback in Malik Willis. Willis is an excellent runner who can really put pressure on a defense with his dual threat abilities. The Syracuse defense wasn't very good to start with, and now they are without star safety Andre Cisco. Syracuse gave up more than 600 yards last week against Duke. I think Liberty will move the ball quite a bit here. Liberty's defensive numbers look pretty good this year, but you have to consider who they have played against. The Flames have faced Western Kentucky, FIU, UL Monroe, and an FCS team. Those are terrible offensive teams. Syracuse is bad offensively as well, but they have much higher recruited talent than any of those other teams. They also play at a very fast tempo. This is a game played inside and with a total set at a low level. Given the pace these two teams play at, I like the value on the over. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-16-20 | BYU -3 v. Houston | 43-26 | Win | 100 | 91 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on BYU* The BYU Cougars have played extremely well this season. They had consistently been great until last week when they narrowly beat UTSA in what was their first clear letdown game of the season. Everyone is going to have a bad game. All teams overlook some opponents. I don't want to read too much into that. BYU has a very good quarterback in Zach Wilson, and he has been making plays all year. The BYU offensive line is strong. BYU already has 13 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. They have allowed only 2 sacks this year. Houston's offensive line is a weakness. They allowed 4 sacks last week alone. Clayton Tune isn't a bad quarterback, but he'll be under pressure a lot and he is turnover prone when under pressure as we saw last week against Tulane. Tulane couldn't threaten Houston's defense very much last weekend, but BYU is much better on both sides of the ball than Tulane. Houston is a talented team, but having only one game under your belt and it having been against a questionable team isn't a big help to Houston. BYU has shown us that they are capable of dominating teams who are at least decent. The line move down here to a field goal is likely largely due to BYU not looking good last week. I think that just gives us good value on the road team in this contest. Take BYU. |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Dolphins +8.5 v. 49ers | 43-17 | Win | 100 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Systems Play CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers have had as many injury issues as anyone in the NFL this year. Jimmy G is back under center for them this week and that is clearly a positive. They do expect Deebo Samuel and Raheem Mostert to at least play part of this game. The 49ers though still have a severe cluster injury concern in the secondary. They are also without star pass rusher Nick Bosa. This defense was never great against the run, and now they aren't nearly as good against the pass as they have been in the past couple seasons. Miami has been pretty competitive this year. They played a pretty tight game at New England in week one. They had more than enough chances to stay within the spread last week against Seattle, but they settled for too many field goals. They did pick up a nice road win at Jacksonville earlier in the season. Byron Jones is expected back in the Dolphins secondary and that is huge for this pass defense. Kyle Shanahan is a really good coach, but he hasn't been good at all as a home favorite. The 49ers have played down to competition in this role in the past. In fact, the 49ers are 0-7 ATS with Shanahan when they are home favorites of 5.5 points or more. They have lost four of those games outright. The 49ers should win here, but Fitzpatrick and the Dolphins should move the ball and there is back door potential here as well. This line is too big. Take Miami. |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Raiders v. Chiefs UNDER 56 | 40-32 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas City Chiefs have a tremendous offense. They are more than capable of putting up a big number at any time. Still, Andy Reid's teams have been great under bets when they are big favorites. Why? Reid is often conservative after getting a lead. His teams grab a lead and then use the clock and move on to play another week. Kansas City plays Buffalo in their next contest after this as well, and that will be a huge game for playoff seeding with the Bills sitting at unbeaten so far this year. Las Vegas has a good running game, and I do think they'll get their yards on the ground in this game. The Raiders don't have a good downfield passing game though. The Chiefs actually rank #1 in the NFL in pass defense DVOA so far this year. They now add in Breeland (suspended the first four weeks). This Chiefs secondary is solid. There is wind of 12-15 mph expected here and while that isn't major, that does help the under a bit. The biggest reason I'll bet this game is this system- when Andy Reid's team is at home and favored by 6 or more the under is a whopping 41-19 in the last 60 contests. When the total is 44.5 or higher, the under is 24-7. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-11-20 | Panthers +2.5 v. Falcons | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 10 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Atlanta Falcons are on a short week here after losing on Monday night in Green Bay. Atlanta has found ways to lose time after time. The team really shouldn't be as bad as they are, but they have been badly injured and this team has no confidence right now either. Julio Jones is listed as questionable, but with him not practicing I think he will either sit this one out or be very limited. I don't need to tell you how much this hurts the Atlanta offense. Teddy Bridgewater continues to be underrated. What is his ATS record as a starting quarterback in the NFL. 30 wins and 9 losses! Bridgewater has been money in the bank. Matt Rhule is a good coach who is really doing a nice job with this Panthers team right away. The Falcons likely aren't even listening to Dan Quinn anymore. Quinn's teams continually disappoint. Under Quinn, the Falcons are 18-33 ATS as a favorite. Atlanta's secondary is still somewhat banged up, and their special teams are among the worst in the NFL. Carolina has been very competitive in their losses this year, and this team has clearly improved through the season. The same can't be said on the other side. Take Carolina here. I'll be betting a little bit on the moneyline here as well. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky UNDER 59.5 | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 124 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kentucky Wildcats are going to do a lot of running the football this year. They ran all over Ole Miss, but the Mississippi State defense should be a tougher task. Kentucky will still get a lot of yards. I do expect it to take them time though. Look for Kentucky to try to keep the ball away from Mike Leach's air raid offense by controlling the time of possession here. Mississippi State has allowed only 1.91 yards per carry so far this year. The offense looked amazing against LSU, but it stumbled badly against Arkansas. The Kentucky defense is a veteran group and with an 0-2 record coming into this one, we should get a strong effort from Kentucky. Take the under here. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Kansas State v. TCU UNDER 55.5 | 21-14 | Win | 100 | 121 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The highest total in a game between these two teams in the last four years has been a combined score of 41 points. TCU's defense hasn't looked good in the first two games of the season, but Patterson is a defensive-minded coach and this group has a lot of talent. I would expect much better results going forward. Kansas State has a QB injury with Skylar Thompson questionable here. Even if he does play I like this under. The Wildcats play very slowly and they won't change that style no matter what. TCU's offense isn't very efficient, and Kansas State's isn't either. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Pittsburgh v. Boston College UNDER 43.5 | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Boston College Eagles host the Pitt Panthers on Saturday afternoon. I've really been impressed with this Boston College defense under new coach Jeff Hafley. He was a defensive coordinator at Ohio State and did a great job with that Buckeyes defense. He is already helping this Eagles defense immensely. Pitt has a top five defense in the country. Rashad Weaver is one of the best pass rushers in the country. The Panthers rank 3rd in the nation in yards per carry allowed (1.98). The weather in this game should be helpful. Sustained winds of about 20 mph are in the forecast with gusts to 25 or 30 mph. That is enough to change the game, especially since the winds are forecast to be blowing side to side in the stadium rather than at the back of either team. Both of these teams prefer to throw rather than run, but the weather will make it more difficult. Both teams have really struggled to get any running game going. I expect a defensive battle here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Central Arkansas v. Arkansas State UNDER 66 | 27-50 | Loss | -110 | 75 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This game is set for Saturday afternoon in Jonesboro, Arkansas. The weather forecast for here looks very bleak. The current forecast calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 35 mph. There is also a 50% chance of rain through the day. Arkansas State doesn't have a good defense, but they are stepping down in class to play Central Arkansas instead of Memphis, Kansas State, or a good Coastal Carolina offense. Arkansas State is more than a two touchdown favorite here. The Red Wolves and the Bears of Central Arkansas are very likely to play more conservatively with this kind of weather. It would be very hard to throw the football very often with winds blowing side to side at 20-35 mph here. The run defenses aren't very good, but if they know what is coming it should help quite a bit. Totals set this high in weather games have been great under bets over the years. Take the under here. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | UL-Monroe v. Liberty OVER 58 | 7-40 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Liberty Flames are expected to have Malik Willis back for this one. He is a star quarterback who can do it all. ULM's defense has already allowed 21 plays of 20 yards or more, and Liberty will get a lot of big gainers in this one as well. Liberty pushes the tempo, and they'll be playing in the lead here. ULM will have no choice but to pick up the pace. ULM showed some offensive strength finally last weekend against a decent Georgia Southern defense. Liberty is very weak defensively, and ULM should be able to produce enough offensively here, especially since they should get some garbage time points. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-10-20 | Virginia Tech v. North Carolina OVER 57 | 45-56 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The North Carolina Tar Heels offense hasn't been very good so far this year, but this offense has too much talent to struggle all season. Sam Howell is one of the better quarterbacks in the nation. He has a good offensive line and very good receivers around him as well. Virginia Tech's running game has really impressed me so far this year. The Hokies are averaging a whopping 7.01 ypc through their first two games. I certainly don't expect anything like that in this game, but the Hokies offensive line has been great in run blocking. North Carolina's defense hasn't been tested by a team that has any semblance of a running game. There is some rain in the forecast for this one which has made the total go down a few points, but the projected wind is 4 mph. Rain without wind is a neutral for the total. There are numerous injuries and COVID related absences in the secondary for both teams. That could lead to some big plays for both teams. Hendon Hooker is expected to play for Virginia Tech here, and he is their top option at quarterback. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-08-20 | Tulane v. Houston OVER 59 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 77 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tulane Green Wave have played faster this year. They will still run the football early and often, but I think that will help them against a Houston Cougars defense that should be weak against the run this year. Tulane's uptempo run game should get yards in bunches here. Houston has yet to play a game, but Dana Holgorsen has talked about wanting to play quickly. The Cougars have improved weapons at the skill positions around Clayton Tune this season. Tulane has yet to play against a really good offense. I think the Tulane secondary can be beaten. These two put up 69 points last year. I had this number several points higher than the current posted total. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Vikings v. Texans OVER 51.5 | 31-23 | Win | 100 | 155 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. The Minnesota Vikings had one terrible game offensively against the Indianapolis Colts. That was a fluke, and it turns out the Colts defense is very solid. In their other two games, the Vikings have averaged 7.5 yards per play (Titans) and 7.8 yards per play (Packers). The emergence of Jefferson as another very good weapon on the outside makes the Vikings passing game dangerous. Minnesota's defense is far worse than it was a couple short seasons a go. This Vikings secondary is among the worst in the NFL. They also have a very poor defensive line (especially without Hunter). Houston has played the toughest schedule in the NFL thus far, and the Texans are going to score points against bad defenses. Here is a bad defense in the Vikings. Look for Watson and company to put up some big numbers. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Ravens -14 v. Washington Football Team | 31-17 | Push | 0 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens are coming off a really poor performance against the Kansas City Chiefs on Monday Night Football. Sure, it is a short week to prepare for this game, but Baltimore also enters this game in a bad mood. The Ravens have beaten up on weaker competition under Harbaugh and Lamar Jackson in recent seasons. That should be the case again here. Baltimore has won and covered the last four times they have been favorites of more than a touchdown. Overall in the NFL, in weeks 4 and 5: favorites of 10 points or more are 27-15 ATS (64%) in the last 42. Washington's offense is terrible. Haskins just isn't the answer at quarterback right now. He makes far too many bad decisions with the football. Baltimore is very likely to make him pay. Washington's defensive line is without both Chase Young and Matt Ioannidis on the defensive line. That is normally their biggest strength as a team. Baltimore's running game should work very well here, and this is a get right spot for the Ravens. Lay the points. Take Baltimore. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Chargers v. Bucs UNDER 42.5 | 31-38 | Loss | -105 | 34 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Bucs defense ranks 4th in the NFL in total yards allowed per game. The rushing defense is as good as you'll find in the NFL, and the secondary is quickly improving. Todd Bowles is a great defensive coordinator and he is really making his mark on this unit. The LA Chargers haven't given up more than 23 points in a game so far this year (and that was KC scoring 23 in overtime against them). The Chargers secondary is very solid, and they have a strong pass rush. Tom Brady hasn't looked in sync yet, and Leonard Fournette is out for this game. Chris Godwin is also out at WR. The Chargers are without two starters on the offensive line. Tampa Bay's defensive front should dominate them here. Justin Herbert is making his first road start here. I expect him to struggle in this one. The weather calls for a 80% chance of rain and some winds of about 10-12 mph during this one as well, which helps the under. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-04-20 | Seahawks v. Dolphins OVER 54.5 | 31-23 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins rank 29th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Seattle Seahawks rank 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Jamal Adams and Quinton Dunbar are both out from the Seattle secondary for this one. Adams is the best player in this secondary, and that is a huge loss for a team that is already giving up a lot of big plays in the air. Three other guys in the Seattle secondary are questionable here. There are major injury issues in the Seattle secondary. Miami cornerback Byron Jones is listed as doubtful here, and he would be a major loss as the Dolphins go against Russell Wilson and this fantastic Seattle passing attack. Seattle has been letting Russell Wilson air it out a lot more often this year, and I see no reason why they would stop here. The Dolphins weakness now is in the secondary and Seattle has clear matchup advantages there. Ryan Fitzpatrick is capable of big plays for Miami, especially against a really weak Seattle secondary. Seattle is 30th in explosive play defense, so they have already been giving up bunch of big plays and now they are much more banged up. The weather initially looked questionable for this game, but the current forecast looks much better with a very small chance for rain and less wind (12 mph). Take the over. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Tulsa +21.5 v. Central Florida | 34-26 | Win | 100 | 28 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Tulsa* The UCF Knights have been excellent this year, but they are laying a few too many points in this one. Tulsa has been a good underdog in recent seasons, and I think they can keep this closer than the current spread. Look for Tulsa's offense to improve quite a bit this year with a solid quarterback in Smith. The Tulsa defense is still a relative weakness, but it is stronger than it has been in recent seasons. UCF's win over Georgia Tech should have been a bit closer were it not for some GA Tech late turnovers that pushed the score from 28-21 all the way up to 49-21. Tulsa's defense impressed by shutting down Hubbard against Oklahoma State in their first contest. Rain is in the forecast for this one with a little bit of wind as well. That kind of weather serves as a bit of an equalizer over the long term. I'll grab the large amount of points here. Take Tulsa. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Southern Miss v. North Texas OVER 71.5 | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank first in the country in tempo so far this year, and it isn't very close. North Texas coach Seth Littrell took over the offense this year and he said they wanted to go fast. He wasn't kidding. North Texas has a good spread offense with the ability to run or throw. The Mean Green are averaging 7.16 yards per play this year (9th in the country so far). Southern Miss allowed 66 points in an embarrassing loss to Tulane last week. I'm not expecting that kind of number allowed here, but this Southern Miss defense is allowing all kinds of big plays. They have already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Southern Miss does have a good passing attack. I expect them to be able to move the ball against a North Texas defense that is one of the worst in the country. North Texas gave up 65 points to SMU. Southern Miss definitely isn't SMU, but the Golden Eagles should be able to throw it around here too. The pace should be there the whole way. Yes, this is a very high total, but my numbers put this game reaching into the upper 70's. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Ole Miss v. Kentucky OVER 57.5 | 42-41 | Win | 100 | 120 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss offense is going to play extremely fast under Lane Kiffin this year. Ole Miss gashed a really solid Florida defense this past weekend. They had 7 plays of 30 yards or more. Amazing. Kentucky has a pretty good defense, but I don't think they'll shut down Ole Miss either. The Rebels have a lot of playmakers at the skill positions on offense and they'll be put in a good position to succeed. Kentucky's offensive line is much better than the Ole Miss defensive front. I would expect Kentucky to have a much easier time moving the ball than they did last week against Auburn's defense. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Texas Tech v. Kansas State UNDER 64 | 21-31 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas State Wildcats put up a big number last week, but that was largely due to Oklahoma's mistakes. Kansas State only had 10 first downs in that contest. Kansas State is playing at the third slowest pace of any team currently playing in college football. This team wants to run the ball and use up the clock. They should want to do that even more than normal here to keep Alan Bowman and this Texas Tech offense off the field. Texas Tech still plays quickly on offense, but they aren't quite as fast as they were a few years ago. The Red Raiders offense is far less efficient as well. They are only 23rd out of 72 teams in the country in yards per play on the year. Last week's game against Texas was misleading from a totals standpoint. Texas Tech only gained 5.8 yards per play and allowed just 5.3 yards per play against Texas. The last two years the meetings between these two teams have stayed well under this posted total. It isn't easy taking an under in a Texas Tech game, but I think Kansas State will control the tempo here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | UTSA v. UAB OVER 54.5 | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UTSA Roadrunners have played much quicker this year than they did a year ago. UTSA averaged 25.79 seconds between snaps last year, but they are averaging only 22.35 seconds between snaps this year. UTSA also only averaged 5.06 yards per play last season, but they are at 5.86 yards per play this year. Their running game has had quite a bit of success in the early going. UAB is also playing a little more than a second quicker this year. The Blazers quarterback for this one is Bryson Lucero, who had a big game last week against UAB. I think he gives the team more big play ability through the air than Johnston does. UTSA has a very weak defense. They are unlikely to be able to slow down UAB here. While UAB does have a good pass defense, their run defense has been shaky this season. Look for UTSA to be able to break some big gainers in the running game. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia UNDER 55 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 116 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I see West Virginia as an under team with their strong defensive front and weak offensive line. The Mountaineers don't push the tempo like most in the Big 12 do either. Baylor looks like they were great offensively against Kansas if you just look at the final score, but that was primarily special teams greatness against a terrible Kansas kick coverage team. Baylor's YPP was a weak 5.25 against a bad Kansas defense. Coach Aranda is obviously a defensive guy and Baylor should be pretty good on defense. The Mountaineers defense is one of the best in the Big 12. This one is several points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-03-20 | Baylor v. West Virginia +3 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 57 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on West Virginia* The West Virginia Mountaineers had a misleading final score last week. Oklahoma State had a defensive touchdown against them. Though the Mountaineers lost by two touchdowns, the stats say that was a very close game. Baylor had a really misleading game last week in their favor. The Bears averaged just 5.25 yards per play against a bad Kansas Jayhawks team. They ran two kickoffs back for a touchdown in that game. They won't be able to do that on a weekly basis. The Bears don't have the talent at wide receiver they had a year ago. They return only two starters on defense from a year ago. Neal Brown's West Virginia Mountaineers should be much improved in year two of Brown's time at the school. I like their defensive front quite a bit. This group should be tough to run on all year, and they should get pressure on opposing quarterbacks as well. The weakness of the West Virginia team overall is their offensive line, but the Baylor defensive front is their weakness this season. Look for West Virginia's offense to work better in this game than it did a week ago. Baylor is a question mark for me this year, and West Virginia is getting a field goal on their home field. Take West Virginia plus the points here and put a little bit of this bet on the moneyline also. |
|||||||
09-28-20 | Chiefs v. Ravens OVER 54 | 34-20 | Push | 0 | 19 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The NFL's rules right now are clearly favoring the offenses. Teams are playing quicker this year as well. The market continues to try to adjust to the higher totals, but there hasn't been a big enough adjustment yet. Kansas City's defense has allowed 6.1 yards per play against the Chargers and 6.7 yards per play against the Texans. They have really struggled with mobile quarterbacks in their first two games. That isn't a good weakness to have when you are about to take on Lamar Jackson and the Ravens. Kansas City's offense hasn't been amazing so far this year, but we all know it is coming. The Chiefs have too much talent and they are certainly going to finish the season as a top 2 or 3 offense in the NFL. Baltimore gets more big plays in the running game than any other team in the NFL. The Chiefs are weak in that regard. Additionally, the Chiefs are still shorthanded in the secondary without Breeland. I think the Ravens get the lead in this one, and that encourages more scoring here since KC can really play with pace and pile up the points when they are behind. Take the over here. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Packers v. Saints -3 | 37-30 | Loss | -110 | 40 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Saints* The Green Bay Packers have been able to feast on bad teams and specifically really bad defenses so far this year. Aaron Rodgers took advantage of a terrible Vikings defense and an awful Lions defense (with a banged up secondary) to put up big numbers. Things will get tougher against a good Saints defense. New Orleans didn't look good on defense on Monday night, but I do still believe this is a quality defense. The secondary is the strength of the team. Devante Adams is now listed as doubtful for the Packers. If he does play he will be far less than 100 percent. The Packers don't have much depth at all at wide receivers. The Saints are much better at home than on the road. New Orleans is a whopping 28-10 ATS in their last 38 home games vs. a team with a winning record. The Packers run defense is a weakness, and I think Kamara can do quite a bit of damage here for the Saints. Perception of the Packers is too high now. I'll back the home team laying the short number. Take New Orleans. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Lions v. Cardinals OVER 51.5 | 26-23 | Loss | -110 | 164 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Arizona Cardinals are playing extremely fast this year. Kyler Murray in the second year of Kingsbury's system will be very good. Hopkins gives him an elite wide receiver. They are likely to finish with the fastest pace in the NFL this season. Arizona moved the ball pretty well against San Francisco, and they moved it very well against a strong Washington defensive front. The Cardinals now take on a very weak Detroit Lions defense. Detroit has major problems in the secondary. Mitch Trubisky lit them up in the 4th quarter in week one. Green Bay averaged 7.4 yards per play in their big win over Detroit. I'm not convinced Detroit will be able to slow down Arizona here. Arizona hasn't been tested very much defensively this year. The Cardinals played a 49ers team with a bunch of injuries on offense in week one. They took on a Washington team that is just weak on offense in their second game. Look for lots of plays in this one and big plays for both sides in the passing game. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Bucs v. Broncos UNDER 43 | 28-10 | Win | 100 | 47 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Denver Broncos have a lot of questions, but they are almost all on the offensive side. The Broncos defense still is very strong. Tampa Bay did win last week against Carolina, but they weren't all that good offensively. The Bucs are only averaging 5.3 yards per play this year (24th in the NFL). Denver's offense has been even worse. Denver is averaging only 4.9 yards per play on the season. The Broncos are now with backup quarterback Jeff Driskel. Driskel isn't a big downgrade from Drew Lock, but Driskel is going to have a rough time here against a very strong Tampa Bay defense. I love the job Todd Bowles is doing with the Tampa Bay defense. They have been excellent at stopping the run in recent seasons, and that is still true, but they are much improved all around this year. I don't think the Broncos offensive line will perform well against them. Denver will try to play conservatively here, but I don't think they'll have much success. The weather is another real factor here. The forecast calls for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 35-40 mph. That is plenty to change a game plan. Expect to see a lot of running and short passes. It will be harder to stretch the field. Take the under here. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Rams v. Bills -2.5 | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 129 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bills* The Los Angeles Rams came east and played a good game against the Philadelphia Eagles last week. The Rams deserve a lot of credit for how they've played thus far, but I'm still not convinced this time is great. Los Angeles is now in a very tough spot this week. The Rams fly back all the way to LA, only to turn around and fly back to Buffalo later this week. Buffalo's defense should be able to do enough to make Jared Goff feel more uncomfortable than he has been in the first two weeks of the season. The Buffalo offense is much better this year. Josh Allen has much improved weapons around him, and I really like the way Allen has played so far this year. He threw for over 400 yards last game against pretty good cornerbacks in Miami. The Bills offense is sneaky good. Buffalo is always hard to beat in Buffalo. I think the market is a little too high on the Rams now, and the Bills are the better team all around. I'll lay the short number here. Take Buffalo. |
|||||||
09-27-20 | Raiders v. Patriots -6 | 20-36 | Win | 100 | 73 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Las Vegas Raiders are coming off an emotional win at home on Monday Night Football. It was their first game in Las Vegas, and you have to give them credit for playing a great game to beat the Saints. Las Vegas did struggle with the Panthers on the road in week one though, and the Raiders defense is still a major problem. The New England Patriots came up one yard short against the Seattle Seahawks. Cam Newton showed me a lot in that game. Newton looks very good throwing the football, and he is going to be very dangerous behind this solid offensive line in the run game. The Patriots are upset after a tight loss, and Belichick's teams have done great off a straight up and ATS loss in the past. How good have the Pats been in this spot? They are a whopping 29-5 ATS when they have a straight up losing streak of one or two games and an ATS losing streak of 1-3 games and are -7 or lower. It's a great bounce back spot for the Pats and a let down spot for the Raiders. Take New England. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.