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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-03-16 | Baylor v. West Virginia -16.5 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 123 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on West Virginia* The West Virginia Mountaineers return home for their season finale this week. They host the Baylor Bears in this one. Baylor looks like a team that has quit on the season to me. Baylor lost by 21 at home to Kansas State two weeks ago. They then turned around and lost 54-35 at Texas Tech last weekend. The team misses Seth Russell, and the Bears have no motivation left. West Virginia was beaten 56-28 at home by Oklahoma two weeks ago, and I think they'll want to finish out the regular season at home on a strong note. The Mountaineers have had a really good season overall, especially compared to expectations. Baylor has committed more penalties than any other team in the country this year. Jim Grobe has lost control of this team, and they seem to be playing out the string. Lay the points with the more motivated team here. Take West Virginia. |
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12-03-16 | Kansas State +3.5 v. TCU | 30-6 | Win | 100 | 37 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The Kansas State Wildcats have been tremendous as an underdog, and it is because they have a great coach in Bill Snyder. This is a guy who coaches his players up as well as anyone. Snyder has the coaching advantage in nearly every game. I do consider Gary Patterson a good coach as well, but this TCU team has chemistry problems. Kansas State is a whopping 25-12 ATS in their last 37 games as an underdog. The Wildcats run the ball on more than 62% of their plays. Why is that important? It's important because weather will be a factor in this game. The forecast calls for a 90% chance of rain and half an inch or more of rain on Saturday afternoon. The wind will be 12-15 mph as well. These are conditions that favor a running team rather than a passing team like TCU. TCU is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 home games. I like the quotes coming out of Kansas State's players from last week's win over Kansas. They said they weren't nearly as sharp as they should be, and they are highly motivated to finish the season out in better form. Is TCU? I'm not sure. With the weather an issues and Kansas State great as an underdog, I'll take the 3.5 points. Take Kansas State. |
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12-03-16 | Temple v. Navy UNDER 64 | Top | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 16 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Navy Midshipmen play at the slowest tempo of any team in the country. Navy ranks 128th in tempo out of 128 teams. How about Temple? They rank 124th out of 128 teams in the nation in tempo. Anytime you get two teams together that play that slowly and you get a total this high, you have to look under. There are several other key factors here. First, the strength of the Temple defense is their ability to stop the run. In Temple's last four games, they haven't allowed more than 3.58 yards per carry in any of those games. Another benefit for Temple is that they played two option teams this year: Army and Tulane. That helps the prep for the triple option this week. Navy runs the ball on 81.43% of their plays. Temple runs the ball on 58.68% of their plays. These are two teams who move slowly and run the ball consistently. That means a lot of running clock in this game. I understand why the total is high. Navy has scored 66 and 75 points in their last two games. Still, Navy's recent success on offense comes against defenses much weaker than the Temple defense. I think in this case, there is a recency bias that allows the under to have solid value. Take the under big here. |
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12-02-16 | Colorado v. Washington UNDER 56.5 | 10-41 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Pac 12 Championship CASH* The Washington Huskies and Colorado Buffaloes battle for the Pac 12 crown on Friday night in Santa Clara. There are multiple important factors that make me like the under in this one. First, both of these defenses are very strong. Colorado and Washington are tied for 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed this year. They both allow only 4.67 yards per play. Washington is a top 20 defense against both the pass and the run. Colorado is a top three defense in the country against the pass, while they are middle of the pack against the run. This works out well in the head to head, because Jake Browning has been throwing it around very well of late, but these Colorado DB's are excellent. I think they'll give Washington's receivers a lot more trouble than they have had most weeks this year. Utah was 13/40 passing with 1 TD and 2 INT's last week against this Colorado secondary. On the other side, Colorado's offense plays fast, but they have been slowed down several times this year. They scored only 20 in a win against a bad UCLA team. They put up only 10 against Stanford and 17 against USC. Another important factor here is the location of this game. It is played in Santa Clara, where the San Francisco 49ers play their home games. This stadium is known for its high grass, and that has been great for unders in the NFL. The under is 22-6 in the 49ers last 28 home games here. These teams are accustomed to playing on the turf, and that means we have less favorable scoring conditions here than normal. I think we see both defenses play well here. Take the under. |
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12-02-16 | Ohio v. Western Michigan UNDER 59.5 | 23-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star MAC MONEYMAKER Total* The Western Michigan Broncos rank in the bottom 25 in the country in tempo. Ohio ranks in the bottom 50 teams in the country in tempo. So we start with two teams that like to take their time, which is certainly a good thing for the under. Ohio's Frank Solich knows Ohio doesn't have the firepower to keep up with Western Michigan in a shootout, and I'm very confident he'll try to keep the ball away from Western Michigan's offense with a slow and steady approach in the running game. Look for Ohio to take a lot of time off the clock between plays, and keep it on the ground. Western Michigan is running the ball on more than 62% of their plays so far this year. That's a good thing when you consider Ohio ranks 4th in the country in yards per carry allowed at only 3.00 per carry. The Bobcats will give up yards of course, but they are better equipped to slow Western Michigan's running game down than most teams the Broncos have faced this year. In a game with a lot on the line, things usually tighten up a little bit. The Bobcats would love to spoil the party. The Broncos need a win to likely go to a New Year's Day bowl game. Look for a lot of long slow drives that eat up the clock. Take the under here. |
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11-27-16 | 49ers v. Dolphins OVER 45 | 24-31 | Win | 100 | 17 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The San Francisco 49ers play at the fastest pace of anyone in the NFL. The 49ers aren't going to slow down anytime soon. In recent games, the 49ers offense has been improved. Hyde is healthier and Kaepernick is making better decisions with the football. Miami's offense has been much better since Ajayi emerged as a force in the backfield. The Dolphins should have a big day on the ground in this one. San Francisco is easily the worst rushing defense in the NFL. The 49ers are giving up 5.17 yards per carry. Ryan Tannehill is capable of making big plays in the passing game when the running game is working well, and I see him getting in some deep passes here. The Dolphins defense has been significantly worse at home than on the road this year. They are allowing 5.7 yards per play at home this season. With the pace of the game and the big play ability, I like this one to go over the posted total. Take the over. |
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11-27-16 | Jaguars v. Bills UNDER 45 | 21-28 | Loss | -105 | 17 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a good team, but when you take a closer look at their stats, you have to be impressed with how hard their defense has played. Jacksonville ranks sixth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at only 5.0 yards per play. Their numbers are almost identical with Seattle and the LA Rams on defense when it comes to yards per play.Jacksonville is allowing less per pass completion than any other team in the league, and they are allowing a solid 3.94 yards per carry. The Buffalo defense has improved in recent weeks. They have gotten healthier and they are allowing 5.4 yards per play in their last three games. Last week against Cincinnati, this Bills defense was playing at an elite level. Blake Bortles has regressed as a quarterback, and I don't see him being able to beat this Bills secondary. The Bills defensive line has an edge up against the Jaguars offensive front as well. Neither of these teams play particularly fast, and I think we'll see both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone here. Take the under in this one. |
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11-27-16 | Bengals v. Ravens UNDER 40.5 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cincinnati Bengals should have some serious problems on offense without A.J. Green and Gio Bernard. Andy Dalton and company looked lost on offense in the second half at home against Buffalo last week. Baltimore's defense ranks fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.0. The Ravens have been a better defense than Buffalo all season. The Ravens are playing their best defense of the year lately. Baltimore is allowing only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. Baltimore's offense has been terrible this year. The Ravens are 28th in the NFL in yards per play at 5.0. They are at 4.8 yards per play at home this year. What about Cincinnati's offense? The Bengals are at 5.9 yards per play at home and 5.5 on the road. Interestingly, the Bengals are at only 4.7 yards per play in their last three games. Cincinnati is badly banged up on offense, but their defense is getting healthier. I don't see Baltimore being able to pick up many big plays against this Cincinnati defense this weekend. On the other side, I see Cincinnati's offense getting more conservative and running the ball more. Baltimore is first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. The under is 5-1 in the Ravens last 6 home games. Take the under. |
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11-26-16 | Florida v. Florida State -6.5 | Top | 13-31 | Win | 100 | 139 h 7 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB ATS Game of the MONTH* The Florida Gators are coming off a really emotional win over LSU on the road. Florida didn't get the easy second to last week of the season that the rest of the SEC got last weekend. Instead, Florida leaves Baton Rouge banged up. Though you certainly have to give Florida some credit for winning in Baton Rouge, the final score of that one was very misleading. LSU had 23 first downs to 14 for Florida. The Tigers also outgained Florida 423-270. Florida benefited from turnovers there, and they made a goal line stop to finish the game. Florida State was disappointing through the first few weeks of the year, but the Seminoles definitely have more talent on their roster than Florida, and they are playing some excellent football of late. Florida State's defense was a major liability in the first few weeks of the year, but they are playing pretty well now. Florida's defense is certainly good, but I don't think they are as good as they look on paper. They haven't played a team who ranks in the top 20 in the nation in yards per play offensively so far this year. Florida State ranks 19th. Tennessee picked up 6.30 yards per play against Florida. Arkansas picked up 6.21 yards per play against the Gators. Florida State is a well balanced team, while Florida's offense is a major liability. Florida comes into this one off a stretch of tough games, while Florida State has played in two blowouts the last couple weeks. Take Florida State big. CFB ATS Game of the MONTH. |
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11-26-16 | Tulane v. Connecticut UNDER 39 | 38-13 | Loss | -110 | 119 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave run the ball on nearly every play. About the only thing this UConn team can do right is stop the run. UConn put up 0 points in last week's loss to Boston College. UConn has now scored a grand total of 3 points in their last 3 games. Read that sentence again and think about it a little bit. That is just insane. The Tulane defense is improved this year, and they should hold UConn to a low number. UConn's Bob Diaco knows option offenses well and should be well prepared for the Tulane option attack. I had this number set at 33. Even with this low total, I'm taking the under. |
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11-26-16 | Michigan State v. Penn State UNDER 54 | 12-45 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense was a huge disappointment early in the season. It seems like they have figured things out in recent weeks. Michigan State was strong defensively against Ohio State last week. They pressured J.T. Barrett constantly and make Ohio State work very hard for their yardage. Penn State's defense was weaker early in the year, but they had a number of injuries then. The Nittany Lions now rank 22nd in the nation in total defense. They rank 20th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.91. Both of these teams like to run it more often than they throw. While Penn State started the season playing a quicker tempo, the Nittany Lions are in the bottom 50 in the country in terms of tempo now. Michigan State is in the bottom 25 in tempo. A 10-15 mph wind could discourage passing a little bit here, and I think both defenses come with a strong effort. Michigan State is 15-2 ATS in their last 17 as an underdog. Dantonio's team will likely fight hard in their last game of the year. Penn State has a lot on the line here. Take the under. |
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11-26-16 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss OVER 68.5 | 55-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels offense should be in good hands with freshman Shea Patterson. Patterson was the top ranked quarterback in the country in high school, and I see him doing big things for this team. Mississippi State is a good opponent to get things going against. Mississippi State allowed 40 points to Kentucky. They gave up 41 points against Samford! They then allowed 58 points against Arkansas last week. Clearly, this is a weak defense. Look for a big number from Ole Miss in this game. Mississippi State's offense has scored 35 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The lone game they didn't score that many was against Alabama. Both teams play fast and I had this line set at 74 points. Take the over. |
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11-26-16 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +7 | 49-19 | Loss | -110 | 83 h 0 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The West Virginia Mountaineers hosted a huge showdown with Oklahoma last weekend. That one obviously didn't go well. West Virginia was beaten from the start there as they were done in by turnovers and some poor defense. West Virginia has been overrated in recent weeks. In fact, their win at Texas was extremely misleading. They were very fortunate to win that game. Now, we catch a West Virginia team that just had its bubble burst. They still had hopes of getting to the playoffs and of winning the Big 12. Now, West Virginia has to get up emotionally for a game in Ames, Iowa against Iowa State? I don't think they do. Iowa State is building momentum late in the season and the Cyclones are coming off a 66-10 drubbing of Texas Tech. This is a team peaking right now, and I see them playing with plenty of motivation. Note that Iowa State hasn't lost by more than 10 in any home game this year. That 10 point loss at home was against Oklahoma. While 56% of the bets on this game are on West Virginia, 84% of the money is on Iowa State. That's a strong signal to me. I'll grab the points with the home underdog. I think Iowa State has a shot at winning outright here as well, so I'm going to personally be playing the moneyline for a small bet also. Take Iowa State here. |
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11-26-16 | Boston College v. Wake Forest UNDER 36.5 | 17-14 | Win | 100 | 14 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Admittedly, it's difficult for me to take an under at this low of a level, but I think this is still a good value. My projected number for this game was 32, and 4.5 points of value on this kind of total is a pretty large spread. These two teams both rank in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo, so we'll see both teams using up the play clock. Another very important factor is the amount of times both teams will be running the ball. Boston College runs it on 63% of their plays, which is one of the highest marks in the country. Wake Forest runs it on 57.4% of their plays. How do the two defenses do against the run? Boston College is a very impressive 9th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 3.21 allowed per carry. Wake Forest is 55th at 4.18 per carry allowed, though they have been better at home in this area. Wake Forest's average is skewed by allowing 9.35 yards per carry against Louisville, but almost everyone has allowed a lot of explosive running plays to Lamar Jackson and company this year. A lot of running the football and the clock rolling consistently should mean a low scoring game. Last year's game was a 3-0 final! It won't be that low this time, but I do like it to be very low. Take the under. |
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11-26-16 | Michigan v. Ohio State UNDER 48.5 | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes and Michigan Wolverines square off in another edition of "The Game." These two teams truly hate each other. As someone who was born in Columbus, I know the importance of this rivalry. Ohio State has become very one-dimensional this year. The Buckeyes don't have a downfield passing game. The receivers for Ohio State is their single biggest weakness as a team. Ohio State is running the ball on nearly 59% of their plays this season. Michigan ranks 6th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.02. The Wolverines defense isn't likely to let Ohio State run all over them here. Michigan is running the ball on 61.34% of their plays this year. The Wolverines use a power formation and move methodically, so they can eat up some serious time. Ohio State's pass defense is arguably the best in the country and with Speight injured Michigan will be one dimensional here. It's hard being so one dimensional against a good defense. It's also important to note that Michigan is allowing opponents to convert on only 21% of their 3rd down conversion attempts. Ohio State's defense is allowing opponents to convert on only 28.83% of their third downs. A lot of running the football here. I see several field goals and a close low scoring game. Take the under. |
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11-26-16 | Purdue v. Indiana OVER 64 | 24-26 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers host the Purdue Boilermakers on Saturday afternoon in a battle for the Old Oaken Bucket. When playing against the weakest defenses they have played this year, Indiana has put up some big numbers offensively this year. Indiana scored 42 and had 650 yards against Maryland a few weeks ago. They scored 33 and had 567 yards against Rutgers a couple weeks ago also. Purdue's defense has allowed at least 44 points in four straight games. In fact, the Boilermakers are giving up exactly 50 points per game in their last four contests. Can Indiana get to 50 or close to it? I think so. Indiana plays at the 13th fastest tempo in the country. Purdue throws it around. Purdue's passing game ranks 17th in the nation in passing yards per game. They should be able to throw it pretty well here too. The weather conditions are expected to be perfect with a chilly temperature and less than 5 mph winds. Both passing games put up some big plays here, and both teams play fast. Take the over. |
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11-25-16 | Washington v. Washington State UNDER 64 | 45-17 | Win | 100 | 94 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Apple Cup Total* The Washington Huskies and Washington State Cougars will play for both the Apple Cup and the Pac 12 North Division on Friday. Washington State's defense is much better than it was a few years ago. This is now a unit that is no longer a big weakness. They are opportunistic and have been good at avoiding the big play. Washington's defense ranks 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. While Washington State clearly has a good offense, I think Washington's defensive line will be in the backfield a lot in this game. Luke Falk has been hit a lot this year, and I think he'll be sacked and pressured relentlessly in this game. In a game of this magnitude, the scoring is typically a little bit lower. Also, the early weather forecast calls for rain and 10-15 mph winds, which would certainly help the under. I had this number at 59. Take the under here. |
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11-25-16 | Boise State v. Air Force OVER 64 | 20-27 | Loss | -107 | 36 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense has been amazing with Arion Worthman at quarterback. Worthman is an excellent runner, and he takes this triple option attack to another level. Nate Romine went down with an injury and Worthman stepped in, and it has been an upgrade. In Air Force's last two games, they have rushed for 485 yards and 458 yards. Boise State is 68th in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 4.46. Boise State allowed 382 rushing yards against the only option attack they have faced this year (New Mexico). The Broncos will be without two of their starting linebackers here, and that's a huge hit in a game like this one where the linebackers will be expected to make a lot of stops in the run game. Boise State's offense has a lot of big play ability. Brett Rypien has been getting better as a quarterback, and I see him being able to exploit this Air Force secondary. Air Force just allowed San Jose State to throw for 340 yards last game. Colorado State threw for 374 yards on them in the game before that. Boise should hit some deep passes in this one. Both offenses have clear edges in this one, and the weather is expected to be very nice. Take the over. |
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11-25-16 | Boise State v. Air Force +8.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 36 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Big MONEY* The Air Force Falcons have one of the best running games in the country. In fact, their rushing attack got even better when quarterback Arion Worthman took over. Worthman is a much better runner than Nate Romine, and Worthman has been putting up big numbers of late. Air Force is fourth in the nation in rushing yards per game. Boise State hasn't been able to stop the run all year. The Broncos are allowing 4.46 yards per carry this year. They have allowed 215 yards or more on the ground in 4 of their last 7 games. Boise will also be without two of their starting linebackers in this game. That hurts a great deal when defending the option attack. The Boise State offense has had turnover problems in several key contests in the past couple years. Boise State is minus seven in turnover margin this year. Air Force is plus three in turnover margin. About 55% of bets thus far have been placed on Air Force in this one, and almost 90% of the money is on the Falcons. Air Force has won the last two matchups with Boise State, and at the very least I think they keep this one very close. Take Air Force. |
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11-20-16 | Patriots v. 49ers OVER 51 | 30-17 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL, and it isn't close. Chip Kelly's team is going to keep playing the same way. The offense is getting a little better as the season moves along, but this San Francisco defense is just terrible. The 49ers defense was never good this year, but after injuries they have really fallen off badly. San Francisco is giving up 6.0 yards per play on the year. That is 28th out of 32 teams in the NFL. The 49ers are allowing 6.7 yards per play in their last 3 contests, which ranks dead last in the NFL. New England is middle of the pack at 5.5 yards per play allowed. The Patriots are 6th in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.0. That includes the time without Brady though, and this is clearly a top three offense in the NFL. San Francisco is averaging 4.9 yards per play on the year, but in their last 3 contests they have gained a very respectable 5.7 yards per play. In the 49ers last 8 games, only one has fallen below this number. New England should put up a big number here, and the 49ers should do enough. Take the over. |
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11-20-16 | Cardinals v. Vikings UNDER 40 | 24-30 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special*Â In this one we have a battle between two of the best defenses in the NFL. Arizona is first in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.7. Minnesota is fourth in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 4.9. It all starts up front for both of these defenses. I see both defensive lines having the upper hand against the opposing offensive front. Sam Bradford hasn't done a terrible job in this Vikings system, but he can't make plays on his own. The Vikings running game has been one of the worst in the NFL. The Cardinals should get a good pass rush here. Carson Palmer is having a disappointing season for the Cardinals. The Cardinals have leaned on their running game of late, but I expect the Vikings front seven to slow down Arizona's rushing attack. While only a little more than 50% of the bets placed on this game have been on the under, about 90% of the money is on the under. The under looks like the sharp side here. Take the under. |
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11-20-16 | Titans v. Colts OVER 52.5 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Indianapolis Colts beat the Tennessee Titans 34-26 in Nashville in their meeting earlier this year. This game will be played in the dome at Indy, where the conditions are even more favorable for an over. Andrew Luck should find plenty of open receivers against a Titans secondary that is worse than the league average. As long as Luck has time to throw, he can pick this team apart. The Colts offensive line has been slightly better in recent weeks. Marcus Mariota has played much better in recent weeks. This Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL. The Titans should be able to run it and throw it against this unit. The Titans are 22nd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Colts are 31st in the NFL in yards per play allowed. While the public does like the over, the sharps like it as well. This is a rare situation where both the public and sharp are on the same side. The over is 6-0 in the Titans last 6 vs. an AFC foe. The over is 7-0-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 after allowing more than 250 yards passing last game. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 vs. the AFC South. The over is 4-0 in the Colts last 4 vs. the AFC South. A 29-0 angle. Take the over. |
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11-19-16 | New Mexico v. Colorado State OVER 61.5 | 31-49 | Win | 100 | 30 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Colorado State Rams allowed 485 yards on the ground last week against Air Force. They allowed 7.13 yards per carry. This week they'll play another option team in New Mexico. New Mexico doesn't run exactly the same offense, but the Lobos are actually averaging more rushing yards per game than is Air Force so far this year. There's no reason to believe Colorado State will be able to slow them down here. On the other side, New Mexico's defense isn't good. They are allowing 5.97 yards per play this year, which is 89th in the country. Colorado State's offense is playing really well of late. In their last 3 games, Colorado State has scored at least 37 points in each contest. The Rams have a balanced offense that should get some big plays against this New Mexico defense. The over is 10-2 in the Lobos last 12 games. Take the over here. |
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11-19-16 | Oklahoma v. West Virginia UNDER 67 | 56-28 | Loss | -111 | 42 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Oklahoma/West Virginia Primetime CASH* The West Virginia Mountaineers defense has been underrated all year. West Virginia has a balanced defense that hasn't had any really bad outings. Their win over BYU was the worst showing, but in all they have fared well against a schedule full of teams with good offenses. Oklahoma's defense is good against the run, and terrible against the pass. The thing that pushes me over the top on playing this one is the weather. The local weather forecasts are calling for 25-30 mph wind with gusts even higher during this game. There could be some snow showers as well. The weather here limits the exposure of the Oklahoma defense against the pass. I don't think either team can do much throwing it around with this kind of weather. Another interesting statistic here is how the defenses have avoided giving up long running plays. West Virginia has only allowed two rushing plays of 30 yards or more all year. Oklahoma has only allowed three. West Virginia is 4th in the nation in that stat. Oklahoma is 12th. I see this as a game where the total is too high considering the circumstances. This game is very important to both teams and they have to play it safe with the weather conditions. The under is 13-4 in West Virginia's last 17 home games. Take the under. |
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11-19-16 | South Florida v. SMU OVER 72.5 | 35-27 | Loss | -102 | 28 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The SMU Mustangs and USF Bulls both play at a quick tempo. They both rank in the top 36 in the country in pace. SMU's defense is better than they were a year ago, but they gave up more than 300 yards on the ground against Tulsa. USF's ground attack is #1 in the nation in yards per carry at 6.66 yards per carry. Why is USF so good on the ground? They have a good offensive line to start with. Then, they have both Flowers (QB) and Mack (RB) who are both excellent runners in the backfield at all times. I expect both of them to have a big game here. USF's defense has regressed in a big way from a couple years ago. This defense is now a major weakness. SMU's offense has improved as their young quarterback has gotten more time in the system. South Florida is giving up 31.4 points per game. SMU is giving up 32.5 points per game. With a quick tempo and weather that looks perfect, I think this game ends up being very high scoring. Take the over. |
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11-19-16 | Virginia Tech v. Notre Dame UNDER 55.5 | 34-31 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish host the Virginia Tech Hokies in this one. A big reason for this play for me is the weather forecast. The sustained wind is expected to be 20-25 mph with wind gusts of up to 40 mph during this game. There is also a 70% chance of rain mixed with snow. Snow or rain by themselves aren't as bad for scoring as some think, but that combined with high wind is very hard to score in. The offenses here will be much more cautious than normal. Virginia Tech's defense has been very good all year, and if you look at the Notre Dame defense closely you'll see they have played much better in recent weeks. Neither team has been pushing the issue as far as pace lately, and I see both teams running the ball a bunch through the bad weather. The clock keeps ticking here. Take the under. |
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11-19-16 | Northwestern v. Minnesota UNDER 47.5 | 12-29 | Win | 100 | 118 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Both Northwestern and Minnesota are better on the defensive side of the ball than they are on offense. These two teams have a long history of playing low scoring games against each other. In fact, the last five meetings between these two have finished at 41 points or less. Minnesota likes to run the football a lot, because they don't have an accurate passer. The Northwestern defense is strong against the run. Northwestern's Clayton Thorson is very inconsistent, and Minnesota has a solid secondary to slow him down. The under is 10-4 in Northwestern's last 14 games.  I had this number at 42 points. Take the under. |
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11-19-16 | Temple v. Tulane UNDER 52.5 | Top | 31-0 | Win | 100 | 119 h 48 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Tulane Green Wave run the option under new coach Willie Fritz this year. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays. Temple is a run heavy team as well. The Owls are running it on 57.5% of their plays. That means a bunch of running clock in this game. Temple's defense has been tremendous of late. The Owls allowed just one yard in the second half two weeks ago against Cincinnati. They allowed 0 points last week against UConn. The strength of the Temple defense is their front seven. Temple is holding opponents to only 3.78 yards per carry. The Tulane defense is very solid as well. Tulane is allowing only 3.83 yards per carry. The Green Wave should be able to slow the Temple offense which is only mediocre. The tempo of both teams is slow. Tulane is slower than average and Temple is very slow. With both teams running the ball into the strength of the defense, I think there is a lot of value on this one. My numbers came to 42 points for this total. Take the under big! |
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11-19-16 | Duke v. Pittsburgh UNDER 63 | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Pittsburgh Panthers are coming off a huge upset at Clemson. Duke is coming off a big upset over their rivals from North Carolina. Pittsburgh's defense has been very good against the run this year. They are allowing only 3.30 yards per carry on the ground. Duke's defense is middle of the pack at 4.27 yards per carry allowed. The thing that should help both defenses in this one is the weather. Rain changing to light snow showers is forecast for this one. The wind is expected to pick up during the game, and the average forecast calls for winds of 25 mph or so during this one. That's plenty to slow down the passing attacks. With a total of 63, it is difficult to get above the total without big plays or a lot of passing. Pitt's defense gives up a lot of long passing plays, but I don't think Duke can do much throwing it deep with this weather. The defenses should be ready for the run. The elements play a key role as this one stays under the posted total. Take the under. |
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11-19-16 | UL-Lafayette v. Georgia UNDER 45.5 | 21-35 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs defense showed what they are made of in last week's win over Auburn. Georgia has now allowed 231 yards or less in three of their last four games (Florida, Vandy, and Auburn). La Lafayette has struggled inside the Sun Belt on offense, so it is hard to imagine them getting much of anything going in this game. In fact, I'd be surprised if Lafayette tops the 10 point mark here. Georgia doesn't really have any major motivation to run the score up here. Also, La Lafayette does have an excellent run defense. Georgia runs the ball a bunch, and they'll try to run it here. The Bulldogs are 6th out of 128 teams in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.06 yards per carry. Georgia slows the tempo of the game down, and once they get their nice lead I think this game slows to a crawl. Take the under. |
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11-19-16 | Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 52.5 | 17-16 | Win | 100 | 37 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* This game is expected to be played in some terrible weather. East Lansing is expected to have a mixture of rain and snow with winds of 30 to 35 miles per hour in this one. This Michigan State defense has shown signs of improvement in recent weeks. It surprised me a lot when they were so bad early in the year with a defensive guy like Dantonio as their head coach. That has improved of late. The Ohio State defense has been tremendous all year. Ohio State's secondary is one of the best in the country, and the front seven has been very good as well. Ohio State and Michigan State are both playing at a tempo slower than the average team in the nation. Ohio State's offense has looked good in the last couple weeks, but this offense has struggled several times this year. I think both offenses will be one dimensional with winds of 30 to 35 mph. It will be very hard to throw it here. I think we see a hard fought low scoring game. Take the under. |
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11-17-16 | Louisville v. Houston UNDER 69 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 52 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Thursday Night THUNDER* Houston's Greg Ward Jr. is banged up pretty badly right now, but he'll try to play in this one. There's no doubt that he isn't himself, and that has slowed this Houston offense down badly. One thing that most people forget is how good this Houston defense is this season. Houston is second in the nation in yards per carry allowed at only 2.76 yards per carry for opponents. Louisville is obviously a run heavy offense, and I think this Houston defense is much better equipped to slow down Lamar Jackson than the average defense. Houston's tempo is slower this year than last. Louisville's tempo is slower than the average tempo in the country. These are two offenses who are capable of big plays, so I understand the total being pretty high, but this one is set several points too high. Also important to note is the fact that the weather is calling for 10-15 mph winds and a chance of rain in this one. That isn't severe weather, but it is enough to make me like this play a little bit more. Take the under. |
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11-13-16 | Vikings v. Redskins UNDER 42.5 | 20-26 | Loss | -106 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The Minnesota Vikings have played 8 games this year. Only one of those games has gone over this total. That was a 31-13 win over the Houston Texans. Minnesota's defense is tremendous, and I expect a strong effort from them here. On the other side, their offense is a mess. Minnesota's big problem on offense is their offensive line. This offensive front has been abused time and time again this year. The Vikings have given up 4.3 sacks per game in their last three contests. Washington has a weak defense, but the one strength they have is their defensive line. Washington is 7th in the NFL in most sacks. Look for the Redskins defensive line to be in the backfield a lot in this game. While about 60% of the bets on this game are on the over (the public loves to play overs), 61% of the money thus far is on the under. The under is 15-5-1 in the Vikings last 21 road games. Take the under. |
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11-13-16 | Chiefs v. Panthers -3 | 20-17 | Loss | -117 | 11 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Carolina Panthers are turning things around. This line is very telling because you have a 3-5 team laying 3 points to a 6-2 team. Clearly, the oddsmakers don't want to underrate Carolina again like they did last season. Carolina's defense has struggled so far this year, but it has been their pass defense that has been a problem rather than the run defense. In fact, Carolina ranks number one in the NFL in yards per carry allowed. Alex Smith isn't a bad quarterback, but he also isn't a guy who picks apart secondaries on a regular basis. Jeremy Maclin is also out for this contest, which is a huge hit to the KC passing game. Carolina lost a lot of close games early in the year, and this team is coming on of late. Carolina is healthier than Kansas City right now also. The Chiefs are without Jamaal Charles in the running game, and Justin Houston is out on the defensive side. This game is expected to be played in rain. That likely means more running plays than normal and while the Panthers are first in the NFL in yards per carry allowed, the Chiefs are 30th. Carolina needs every game at this point, and I give them several key advantages here. Take Carolina. |
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11-13-16 | Bears v. Bucs OVER 45 | 10-36 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Tampa Bay Bucs rank 6th in the NFL in tempo this season. Chicago ranks 13th in the NFL in pace. A total set at only 45 is pretty low for two teams playing at that kind of pace without a really good defense involved. Neither of these defenses would qualify as a really good defense. Tampa Bay's secondary is terrible. The Bucs are allowing 12.65 yards per pass completion so far this year, which is second worst in the NFL. Tampa Bay has also been a penalty machine on defense. The Bears will get some major help from Tampa Bay penalties on defense here. Chicago's defense is mediocre. Tampa Bay's offense gets much better this week when Mike Evans is in the lineup, and there is hope that Doug Martin will play as well. Jay Cutler has been an upgrade for the Bears since coming back, and he throws a good deep ball. Cutler should make some big plays here, and he could also throw some to the other team for a quick score, as his judgement has never been very good. Tampa Bay is playing in their third straight home game. In their last 10 times playing a third straight home contest, the over is 9-1. Take the over here. |
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11-12-16 | San Diego State v. Nevada UNDER 51.5 | 46-16 | Loss | -113 | 21 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Late Night Bailout*Â San Diego State has the most underrated running back in the country in Donnell Pumphrey. The Aztecs will run the ball relentlessly in this contest. San Diego State ranks in the top five in the nation in terms of percentage of offensive plays that are a run. Expect them to methodically move the ball down the field and take a lot of time in the process. The Nevada offense was not good to start with and now they are without their starting quarterback. Nevada will be running the ball a lot as well and that plays into the strength of the Aztecs defense. San Diego State has been a shutdown defense in the Mountain West Conference. With both teams moving at a slow pace, I see plenty of value on this selection. Take the under. |
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11-12-16 | USC v. Washington UNDER 63 | 26-13 | Win | 100 | 111 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Here's a total that has been set a few points too high because of the opponents each of these teams have played of late. USC is coming off games against Oregon (45-20 win) and Cal (45-24 win). Washington is coming off a 66-27 win over Cal. This is important because Cal and Oregon play at fastest and second fastest tempo of any team in the Pac 12, and they have very good offenses and bad defenses. Every game involving them is high scoring. The fact that both of these teams just played these high scoring games has created a situation of recency bias in this posted total. Last year, when Washington and USC got together it was 17-12. Both teams are much better offensively this year, but I still think this is too high of a number. Neither team is blazing fast in terms of tempo, and USC is running the ball a high percentage of the time. Look for a game that stays in the 50's here. Another important factor here is the weather. Rain showers and 25-30 mph winds are expected throughout this game. That changes the game in a big way, and it definitely helps out the under. Take the under. |
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11-12-16 | South Florida v. Memphis OVER 73.5 | 49-42 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play CFB Total DOMINATION*Â USF has a really good tandem in the backfield with Flowers at quarterback and Mack at running back. USF ranks in the top five in the country in yards per carry. Flowers is an excellent dual threat quarterback, and he can make some tremendous plays with his foot speed. Mack is an underrated runner and he is a guy the NFL scouts really like. Memphis quarterback Riley Ferguson has done an excellent job in this system. Ferguson had to follow Paxton Lynch and some were worried about the Memphis passing game but Ferguson has been more than adequate. Memphis has had a lot of success throwing the ball down field this season. South Florida's defense has been a big disappointment this season. Both teams play at a quick tempo and I expect a shootout. Take the over. |
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11-12-16 | Auburn v. Georgia UNDER 49.5 | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 116 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Georgia Bulldogs are both run heavy teams. This is a game that should move very quickly with the clock running most of the game. Both defenses are very solid against the run. Auburn has slowed their tempo down this year, and Georgia is playing at a very slow pace this season. I see Auburn grabbing a lead here and consistently running the football and using up the clock. I had this one set at 45. Take the under. |
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11-12-16 | Vanderbilt v. Missouri UNDER 54 | 17-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under*Â The Vanderbilt Commodores have only played one game all season that has gone over this posted total. Vanderbilt is very good at making the game "ugly". The Vanderbilt passing attack is non-existent, which puts a lot of pressure on the running game. Even though Missouri hasn't been good on defense this year, I expect them to slow down the one dimensional Vanderbilt offense. Missouri plays fast on offense but the Tigers aren't efficient. Drew Lock is inconsistent at the quarterback position and Missouri doesn't get many explosive plays. Vanderbilt has a couple stars on defense and I think they can hold their own in this spot. When Vanderbilt is involved, I have to take an under at this price point. Take the under. |
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11-12-16 | Rice v. Charlotte OVER 63 | 22-21 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Rice Owls have the worst defense in the nation, and it isn't even close. Rice has allowed 13 plays of 70 yards or more this season. How is that even possible?! The second worst mark in the country is 7 plays of 70 yards or more allowed. Charlotte's defense isn't good either. The 49ers rank 101st out of 128 teams in the nation in total defense. Rice ranks 128th out of 128. Charlotte likes to push the tempo of the game, and that makes me believe there will be enough possessions, and enough chances to break big plays, for this game to go over the posted total. Take the over. |
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11-12-16 | SMU v. East Carolina OVER 59.5 | 55-31 | Win | 100 | 113 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Both of these teams rank in the top 1/3 of teams in the country in terms of tempo. East Carolina has made a habit of piling up the yards and turning the ball over near the goal line. This is something that I believe will regress toward the mean and improve the rest of the season. Both teams have big play ability and I see both defenses as being vulnerable to the explosive plays. My numbers made this game 65 points, so I see value here with both teams putting up quite a few points. Take the over. |
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11-12-16 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 55 | 3-51 | Win | 100 | 32 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Alabama Crimson Tide defense is getting better and better every single week. Alabama ranks first in yards per play allowed at 4.06. That's just an amazing number. Let's look at the last three weeks. Alabama allowed only 2.59 yards per play against Tennessee. They allowed 4.03 yards per play against a good Texas A&M offense. They only allowed 2.45 yards per play last week against LSU. In 6 of Alabama's 9 games so far this year, they have allowed 10 points or less. Alabama isn't going to give up many points here. On the other hand, I'm not sure Alabama will run the score up as much as expected here. This is a noon start coming off a huge win at LSU. That was the toughest game on Alabama's schedule, and that was an extremely physical game. Alabama is likely to want to get out of this one healthy. The sharp money here is clearly on the under with the early line move. I agree and will take the under. |
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11-12-16 | South Carolina v. Florida UNDER 37.5 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 11 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under*Â I certainly don't like taking unders at this price but I believe there are many good reasons for the total to be set extremely low in this contest. Jake Bentley has been solid for South Carolina in their last three games but he has yet to play against a strong defense. Florida is third in the nation in total defense. South Carolina is 120th out of 128 teams in the nation in total offense. I can't imagine South Carolina scoring many points here. Florida is without quarterback Luke Del Rio for this game. The Gators offense has been miserable of late and South Carolina should come well prepared to stop the run. Both of these teams rank among the twenty slowest paced teams in the country. Take the under. |
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11-10-16 | Browns +10 v. Ravens | 7-28 | Loss | -115 | 20 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Browns/Ravens CASH* The Baltimore Ravens are coming off an impressive win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. Now, on a short week, they host the winless Cleveland Browns. If there was ever a spot to look past a team, this is it. Teams have not fared well after playing the Pittsburgh Steelers. This is likely because of the Steelers extremely physical nature. The Ravens and Steelers hate each other, and that battle always takes a lot out of both teams. How about this trend? Teams are 12-32 ATS in their last 44 games after playing Mike Tomlin's Pittsburgh Steelers. There are a couple more trends backing the Browns plus the points here. Baltimore is 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games against Cleveland. The Ravens are also an awful 3-12-1 ATS as a home favorite of 3 points or more against a team from the AFC North. Cleveland isn't good, but all 8 of Baltimore's games have been decided by a single digit margin. It's a letdown spot for Baltimore, and I think they'll win, but it will be closer than 10. Take Cleveland plus the points. |
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11-08-16 | Western Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 56 | 37-21 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Tuesday Night MONEY* The Kent State Golden Flashes defense is actually a pretty good defense. Kent State is 41st in the nation out of 128 teams in rushing defense. Kent State is 36th out of 128 teams in the nation in passing defense. The problem for Kent State is their offense. Kent State is dead last (128th) in the nation in total offense. Right now, Kent State has a wide receiver/running back playing quarterback. Nick Holley is a good runner, but it is difficult to move the football against quality defenses when they know the run is coming every time. Western Michigan is a really good team, and they run the ball very often. The Broncos will score their points here, but I think Kent can slow them down better than the average team. Both of these teams rank in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo. They also run the ball far more often than the average team in the country. A moving clock and possessions that take a lot of time will help here. The under is 19-7-1 in Kent State's last 27 conference games. Take the under. |
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11-06-16 | Saints v. 49ers OVER 51 | 41-23 | Win | 100 | 136 h 27 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The San Francisco 49ers are playing at the fastest pace in the NFL by a wide margin. Chip Kelly's team is coming off a bye week. That should be a positive for the offense. I expect the offense, which hasn't been very good at all, to have a better game plan ready for this one. The Saints play at the fourth fastest tempo of any team in the league. New Orleans still has a terrible defense. The Saints are giving up 6.2 yards per play on the year, which is 28th in the NFL. The Saints aren't very good against the run or the pass. San Francisco's defense was bad to start with, but injuries to Navarro Bowman, Ray Ray Armstrong, and Aaron Lynch from the linebacker positions have really hit the team hard. The 49ers have allowed 33 points or more in 5 of their last 6 games. This Saints offense is arguably the best offense they have gone up against yet. Drew Brees is playing well, and Brees has a ton of weapons around him. The 49ers have no home field advantage now, and I see the Saints putting up a big number. The sheer volume of plays makes me think the 49ers will get their points as well. The over is 7-0 in the Saints last 7 games vs. a team with a losing record. The over is 7-0 in the 49ers last 7 after allowing 350 yards or more last game. The over is 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between these two in San Francisco. A 22-0 angle. Take the over. |
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11-06-16 | Jets +4 v. Dolphins | 23-27 | Push | 0 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* This selection is all about the Dolphins being undeserving of laying four points. Miami isn't a very good team, and they have proven to be terrible when laying points at home. How about this stat? The Miami Dolphins are 13-42-1 ATS in their last 56 home games vs. a team with a losing road record. Basically, the Dolphins are terrible as home favorites. Miami is 4-11 ATS in their last 15 home games. They are also 2-9 ATS in their last 11 vs. the AFC East. The Jets run defense is solid. Miami's offense has improved of late thanks to Jay Ajayi, but I trust the Jets to hold him down pretty well here. The weakness of the Jets is their secondary, but can Ryan Tannehill really take advantage of that weakness? The Jets have played a bit better in recent weeks, and it should be noted their early season schedule was very difficult. I'm going to grab the points in a game that should be close all the way. Take the New York Jets. |
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11-05-16 | East Carolina v. Tulsa OVER 75 | 24-45 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Two teams who love to push the tempo and get off as many snaps as possible meet in this AAC showdown. Tulsa is playing at the second fastest pace of any team in the country. The Golden Hurricane offense started the season a little slower than expected, but they have cranked it into gear of late. They have scored less than 43 points only one time in their last six contests. Tulsa has scored 50 and 59 in their last two games. East Carolina's offense has put up huge yardage numbers without scoring at a high rate. That should regress to the mean with time, and last week we saw East Carolina put up 41 points on a good UConn defense. The over is 19-7 in Tulsa's last 26 home games. The over is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams. I see a high scoring game all the way here. Take the over. |
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11-05-16 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas +20 | 45-24 | Loss | -103 | 17 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on North Texas* The North Texas Mean Green have showed nice improvement under Seth Littrell. I believe he is doing a really nice job with a program that was in the dumps when he arrived. North Texas already has already won outright three times when they were an underdog of a touchdown or more. Two of those times they were a dog of +13.5 and +17.5. The area where North Texas is most improved this year is in the secondary. It might surprise you to know that North Texas ranks 17th in the nation in lowest opponent QBR. The Mean Green haven't allowed more than 300 yards through the air in a single game this year. Louisiana Tech comes into this one having been crushing everyone they play of late. Still, it is important to note that they have played FIU and Rice in the last two weeks. Those are bottom of the barrel teams. LA Tech has 18 passing plays of 30 yards or more and 5 of 70 yards or more (best in the nation). North Texas has only allowed 1 passing play of 60 yards or more this year, so they do a good job keeping things in front of them. What makes me think this number is inflated? LA Tech was only -18 at FIU and now they are -20 at North Texas. There's no question North Texas is a better team than FIU right now, so the oddsmakers have made a big adjustment. LA Tech's season hopes all come down to their game against Southern Miss, which means a spot like this has a ton of potential for a sloppy win. I think North Texas hangs around all game here. Grab the points. Take North Texas. |
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11-05-16 | Syracuse +27 v. Clemson | 0-54 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Syracuse* The Clemson Tigers were fortunate to win last weekend at Florida State. They dug a hole for themselves in the fourth quarter before coming back and winning late. That game required a big effort from the Tigers. If there was ever a letdown spot, this is it. Syracuse is obviously not nearly as good as Clemson, and the Tigers players know that. The thing that makes me like Syracuse here though is their steady improvement throughout the year, and there fast-paced offense which gives them a shot at a backdoor cover at any time. Syracuse started the season looking bad and had blowout losses to Louisville and USF. In recent weeks, they pulled a big upset over Virginia Tech and won on the road at Boston College. This team is trending the right way and they should catch a Clemson team that just wants to get out of this game with a win. Take Syracuse and the points. |
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11-05-16 | Michigan State v. Illinois UNDER 51 | 27-31 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini are likely to be without starting quarterback Wes Lunt again in this game. Without Lunt, the Illinois offense has been a mess. Illinois had just 245 yards last week against Minnesota. They had only 8 first downs and 172 yards against Michigan two weeks ago. Even against lowly Rutgers, Illinois had only 10 first downs and 320 yards of offense. Michigan State's defense hasn't been up to par this year, but I think they'll be able to slow down this very short-handed Illinois offense. On the other side, Michigan State's offense hasn't been good this year either. The Spartans can't find an identity on offense. Illinois has gotten much more competitive on the defensive end, and Lovie Smith is a good defensive-minded head coach. Both teams play in the bottom 25 in terms of tempo, so there won't be very many snaps in this game. I see an ugly game between two teams who aren't likely to be able to put together long drives. Take the under. |
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11-05-16 | Wisconsin v. Northwestern UNDER 41 | 21-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* This is definitely a low posted total, but I think it is this low for good reason. Wisconsin and Northwestern are both much better on the defensive side of the ball than the offensive end. Northwestern is 88th in the nation in total offense. Wisconsin is 95th in the nation in total offense. Northwestern is 54th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 5.4. Wisconsin is 12th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.6. The last two years the final score when these two met has been 20-14 and 13-7. The tempo of the game should be slow, and both teams like to run the football a lot. This is the type of game where I wouldn't expect to see many explosive plays. Both defenses are good at avoiding those. On the other hand, this sets up as a game where both teams struggle to punch it in the end zone, and end up settling for a lot of field goals. The under is 29-8 in Northwestern's last 37 home games. Take the under. |
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11-05-16 | Air Force v. Army UNDER 50 | Top | 31-12 | Win | 100 | 111 h 60 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Total of the MONTH* These two teams run the football more than any other teams in the country. Army only throws the football on 14.31% of their plays. Air Force only throws it on 19.85% of their passes. It will be a running clock almost all the time in this one. That's really important for the under. Also, these two offenses generally benefit from going against defenses who aren't well-prepared to stop the triple option. That won't be the case in this one. Both teams practice against the triple option on a daily basis. That's the single most important factor for this wager. Army plays at the second slowest pace of any team in the country. Air Force is slightly slower than the average team as well. The long slow drives will eat up a ton of clock here. My number here was 42. A lot of value on this one. Take the under big. TOP Total of the Month. *Note- This line has dropped since I released this early in the week. I would still play this for a TOP rated play down to 45 points. Below 45 I would make it a 4 star play. Thank you!* |
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11-03-16 | Falcons v. Bucs OVER 50.5 | 43-28 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Thursday Red Hot CASH* The Atlanta Falcons offense is averaging 13.01 yards per pass completion so far this year. That's a yard better than the second best team in the NFL in that category (Patriots). Atlanta's Matt Ryan has taken a big step forward this year in terms of consistency. It helps that he has an improved offensive line and some tremendous deep weapons in the passing game. This is a good matchup for Ryan to have a big game also. Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 12.59 yards per completion, which is second worst in the NFL (behind only the Browns). The Bucs secondary was torched last weekend by Derek Carr and the Raiders, and I think the same thing will happen here. Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston has been up and down this year, but he has been good against the Falcons in the past, and the Atlanta defense is still subpar. Atlanta is 19th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Tampa Bay is 25th in that number. Atlanta is easily first in the NFL in yards per play on offense at 6.8 yards per play. The over is 7-1 in the Falcons last 8 games. The over is 7-3 in the Bucs last 10. Take the over here. |
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10-30-16 | Raiders v. Bucs OVER 49 | 30-24 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Oakland Raiders and Tampa Bay Bucs meet in a game that I expect to be a back and forth high scoring contest. Oakland's defense ranks dead last in yards per play allowed at 6.7. Tampa Bay's defense ranks 17th at 5.6 yards per play allowed. It is important to note that both of these teams like to throw it around. Oakland is passing on 61.31% of their plays so far this year. Tampa Bay is throwing it on 58.92% of their plays. Both secondaries have some major problems. Oakland is allowing a league worst 12.74 yards per completion. Tampa Bay is 4th worst in the NFL at 12.65. Both Carr and Winston are fully capable of completing the long pass, and they both have a lot of weapons on the outside. I see both teams having some big gainers through the air in this game. Tampa Bay ranks near the top of the NFL in pace of play, which is a big bonus as well. Weather shouldn't be a factor here. The over is 5-0-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two. Take the over. |
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10-30-16 | Cardinals v. Panthers OVER 47 | 20-30 | Win | 102 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Red HOT CASH* The Carolina Panthers come off a bye week and try to get their season turned around here. They have a long way to go, but I have to think the Panthers are going to play better the rest of the way. While the Arizona defense is definitely good, they could be a little worn down because of a multitude of injuries and having to play an overtime game (five full quarters) late last Sunday night. The Panthers have the weapons on the outside to break some big plays in the passing game. Carson Palmer has always thrown a good deep ball in his career until this season. He'll get more chances to air it out deep here though, and I think he'll connect on some of them. Carolina is allowing opponents 12.72 yards per pass (only Cleveland and Oakland have been worse). The Panthers secondary is the single biggest reason they are 1-5 right now. The bets are about 50/50 on this one, but the money is 79% on the over. That indicates sharp action on the over. With no weather issues here, I'll take the over. |
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10-30-16 | Seahawks v. Saints OVER 48 | 20-25 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints defense is still terrible. The Saints are allowing 6.1 yards per play on the year. Seattle's offense has struggled to get going at times this year, but they should get things rolling just fine against this Saints defense. Seattle did put up 26 against Atlanta, 27 against the Jets, and 37 against the 49ers. New Orleans' offense is still very good. Drew Brees is excellent at finding open spots in the coverage. He'll go against a good Seahawks secondary here, but I think Seattle's aggressive nature could lead them to get beaten deep some by the Saints in this one. New Orleans plays at the 4th fastest tempo of any team in the NFL. The Saints have a way of making every game high scoring, especially when they are on the fast turf of the Superdome. Seattle's offensive woes of late led to this total being this low, but it just creates value when the number is this low on a game involving the Saints. The over is 8-0-1 in the Saints last 9 home games. Take the over. |
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10-29-16 | Clemson v. Florida State +4.5 | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 26 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Primetime MONEYMAKER* The Florida State Seminoles have a plethora of talent. This is a team that has an extremely high upside. They had some hiccups earlier this year, but I'm not ready to give up on this team. Clemson is getting all sorts of public money here. In fact, it is almost like people think Clemson is free money here the way this line has moved up through the key numbers. I don't see it that way. Clemson hasn't played well this year. Deshaun Watson isn't having the season he had a year ago. The Tigers offense hasn't been the quick strike offense it was a year ago. Florida State's defense was terrible early in the season, but they have been better of late. The Seminoles have too many 5 star recruits on defense to be terrible all year. Florida State has allowed 26 points in the last two games combined. Dalvin Cook is a superstar, and Francois has been excellent at QB as a freshman. Catching more than 4 points at home with Florida State is almost unheard of, and I'll gladly take them in a game that I think goes right to the wire. I'll go against the public and take Florida State here. |
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10-29-16 | Tulsa v. Memphis OVER 71.5 | 59-30 | Win | 100 | 121 h 23 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane and Memphis Tigers met last year in a game that Memphis won 66-42. Memphis rolled up 704 yards of offense in that one. Tulsa had 534 yards in the loss. Tulsa ranks second in the nation in terms of tempo. They are going to look to get plays off as soon as possible every single time. Evans is a really good fit for this offense. The Memphis defense has given up more than 40 points twice already this year. Memphis ranks in the top 25 in terms of tempo. The Tigers are averaging 38.4 points per game so far this year. Tulsa has seen four of their last five games go over this total. In fact, all 4 of those games have gone to at least 77 points. The one that went under finished at 69 points also. I see two offenses with big play ability up against defenses that are mediocre or worse. The pace of the game is a huge key. Take the over. |
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10-29-16 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 44 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 117 h 22 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Total of Week* The Georgia Bulldogs and Florida Gators both play at a very slow pace. Both of them struggle to get explosive plays with their offense. When they score it is usually from long methodical drives. Florida ranks in the bottom 25 in the country in terms of tempo. The Gators haven't proven anything against a good defense yet this year. Georgia's defense should be ready with a bye week and coming off a disappointing 17-16 loss to Vanderbilt. Georgia is awfully one-dimensional right now, and Florida has one of the best defenses in the country. Florida is going to load up the box and force Georgia to try to beat them through the air. I don't think they can do it. Florida's secondary is among the best in the nation. I think this game stays in the 30's. This total is several points too high. Take the under big. |
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10-29-16 | Cincinnati v. Temple OVER 53.5 | 13-34 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati offense clicked better than it had all season last week. Why? Because finally Gunner Kiel was put back in the lineup. Kiel is the team's best quarterback and had been riding the bench while the offense struggled all year. Cincinnati put up more than 500 yards of offense last week, and I see this being a good offense moving forward. Temple's running game has been much better of late. The Owls really showed me a lot on the ground last week against USF. Phillip Thomas has regressed as a quarterback, but he has big play potential both ways (long TD passes or interception runbacks for the opposition). The weather here is scheduled to be very nice, and this number is very reasonable. I think this is a spot where Cincinnati's poor offensive play earlier in the year is giving us a discounted total. Look for the Bearcats numbers to keep climbing throughout the rest of the season. I'll look to buy in on the over before those numbers take off too much. Take the over. |
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10-29-16 | Army v. Wake Forest UNDER 41.5 | 21-13 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Army Cadets play at the second slowest tempo of anyone in the country. Army cannot throw the football, and we saw great evidence of that last weekend. They threw four interceptions and only completed 7 passes. The Cadets will be back to running it here, but I'm not sure they'll have much success against this strong Wake Forest defense. Dave Clawson is known as a great defensive coach, and he is doing a tremendous job with this Demon Deacons team. Wake Forest ranks 22nd in the country in yards per carry allowed.Wake Forest already stuffed the option very well once this year when they took on Tulane. There's no reason to believe they won't fare well in this one once again. The Wake Forest offense has been terrible this year. They have no passing game and a subpar rushing game. Wake Forest also plays at a very slow tempo. I see this one as a game where we see a bunch of running clock, and not many possessions. Even on the possessions where they score, it should take a bunch of time off the clock. Take the under in this one. |
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10-29-16 | Cincinnati +7 v. Temple | Top | 13-34 | Loss | -114 | 122 h 7 m | Show |
*5 Star College Football ATS Game of MONTH* The Cincinnati Bearcats have been a really strange team this year. Tommy Tuberville decided to sit Gunner Kiel on the bench all year for some unknown reason. Kiel has proven himself as an excellent quarterback, and he finally got a shot last weekend and Cincinnati's offense put up 513 yards in a win over East Carolina. Kiel is the spark this offense needed. Cincinnati now goes to play a Temple team coming off a big nationally televised win over USF. Temple is a good team, but they aren't a great team. Last year, Temple beat Cincinnati 34-26 despite being outgained a whopping 555 yards to 296. That is about as misleading as you will get as far as final scores. The Owls defense is down several notches from last year, and with Kiel finally back at quarterback I see Cincinnati putting up plenty of points here. The road team is 6-0 ATS in the last 6 meetings between these two teams. Temple has covered 7 straight games this year, and that has inflated this line. I'll take the value on the Cincinnati Bearcats as the underdog here. Take Cincinnati big. |
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10-29-16 | West Virginia v. Oklahoma State UNDER 65 | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 23 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Oklahoma State Cowboys host West Virginia in a really big game in the Big 12 and for the national landscape. West Virginia hasn't lost a game yet. The Mountaineers defense is much better than anyone thought it would be. West Virginia only allowed 17 points to the high flying Texas Tech offense. They only gave up 10 points against a very good TCU offense also. Only once this year has West Virginia allowed more than 21 points. Oklahoma State is definitely a good offense, but they are heavily reliant on the passing game with Mason Rudolph. The Cowboys should be hurt by the weather in this game. The forecast calls for 20-25 miles per hour winds during this game, which is plenty to change the way the passing game will work. I see the weather making both teams run the ball more often. Also, in the last three years, the 3 meetings between these two teams haven't been any higher than 52 points at the end of regulation. This game is totaled too high. The under is 21-7 in the Mountaineers last 28 games. The under is 17-4 in their last 21 conference games. Take the under. |
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10-29-16 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 50.5 | 35-38 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets play at the single slowest pace of any team in the country. Georgia Tech takes a ton of time in between plays. They are also up against a Duke team that has been terrific at stopping the option. Take a look at the last three times Duke has played against a triple option team. They gave up 6 points and 3 points to Army in the last two seasons. They gave up 20 points against Georgia Tech last year. They have held their opponents way below their normal rushing yards consistently as well. How does Duke do so well stopping option? Duke is using a very smart strategy of basically sacrificing one defensive player to try to blow through the line with an aggressive dive, but not make the tackle. It's a very cool thing to watch, and it has worked well. The one player disrupts the option read and slows the play down in the backfield, and it has caused a lot of lost yardage plays for triple option teams. Duke's offense isn't very good at all. Their efficiency has been poor in almost every game this year, and I don't see them putting up too many points here. I like this one to stay in the 40's. Take the under. |
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10-29-16 | Kent State v. Central Michigan UNDER 44.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan Chippewas run defense has been good against everyone except for Western Michigan so far this year. Western Michigan has one of the best offenses in the nation though, so I can forgive a poor performance there. The reason that is so important is because Kent State can only run the football. Kent has converted Nick Holley from a running back/wide receiver over to quarterback because of poor quarterback play and injuries. Holley is a good runner, but he can't throw it much at all. Central Michigan knows what is coming here, and they should be able to stop it. On the other side, Central Michigan's offense hasn't been balanced this year either. They haven't been able to get a running game going. Kent's defense is in the top 1/3 of teams in the country in pass defense. This projects as a game where Kent puts up a really low number and Central Michigan wins comfortably. Take the under. |
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10-27-16 | Ohio v. Toledo UNDER 59.5 | 31-26 | Win | 100 | 73 h 4 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets run the football very well, but Ohio's strength on defense is stopping the run. Ohio is 15th in the nation in rushing defense when it comes to yards per carry. They are allowing only 3.18 yards per carry. The Rockets play at a slower tempo than a normal team, and Ohio plays at an average tempo. Neither team will be pushing the tempo here. Ohio's offense has struggled this year. The Bobcats don't have enough playmakers on the offensive side of the ball. Ohio only put up 20 points two weeks ago against a subpar Eastern Michigan defense. They only scored 14 in their win against Kent State last week. With both teams running the football a lot, the clock will be ticking away here. I had this game lined at 53 points, so I see plenty of value here. Take the under. |
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10-23-16 | Bucs v. 49ers OVER 45 | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 47 h 34 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The San Francisco 49ers continue to push the tempo under Chip Kelly. The 49ers are playing at what is easily the fastest tempo in the NFL. Colin Kaepernick is likely a better long term fit in the offense than Blaine Gabbert. Look for him to run the football occasionally, and be able to keep some plays alive in the passing game because of his ability to scramble around. Jameis Winston has been up and down this year. The 49ers defense is definitely one of the worst in the NFL, and I see this as a great chance for Winston to have a big game. Tampa Bay has also preferred to play at a quick pace so far this year. They should be happy to get into a high scoring affair. The injury to Navarro Bowman makes the 49ers defense much weaker than it was before, and it wasn't good even with him. Four of the 49ers first six games went over this total and three of the Bucs first five have gone over this total. Tampa Bay's defense is allowing 13.57 yards per pass completion this year (worst in the NFL). I'll look for some big plays on offense from the 49ers. San Francisco is giving up 11.34 yards per pass on the year. Take the over. |
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10-23-16 | Chargers +6.5 v. Falcons | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Chargers* The Atlanta Falcons have been through a really tough period on their schedule of late. Atlanta played at New Orleans, home against Carolina, at Denver, and finally at Seattle last weekend. Last week's loss had to be deflating to them as well. Atlanta probably should have won that game. Now, Atlanta comes home to play the San Diego Chargers, who are 2-4 on the year. This is definitely a sandwich spot game. Next week, Atlanta has a big game against Green Bay. San Diego has been playing everyone tough so far this year. They have four losses, but none of them have been by more than 6 points. The Chargers also had extra rest here since they played last Thursday. That's a big positive for a team that has been badly banged up. I think Phillip Rivers and the Chargers offense can keep pace with Atlanta and make this one a game that goes down to the wire. With Phillip Rivers at quarterback, the Chargers are 14-4 ATS when they are 6.5 point or larger underdogs. Take San Diego. |
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10-23-16 | Vikings -3 v. Eagles | 10-21 | Loss | -100 | 43 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* I'm not going to overthink this one. The Eagles were never as good as they looked in the first couple weeks. Philadelphia was completely dominated by Washington last week. The score was close, but look at the box score and you'll see how that game really went. The Eagles had only 12 first downs compared to 26 for Washington. The Redskins rolled up nearly 500 yards of offense in that game. Minnesota has been tremendous all year, and they are coming off a bye week. Minnesota has a tremendous coach in Mike Zimmer, and with him leading the way I feel confident they will be ready to play with two weeks of preparation. The weather could play a role in this game. Heavy winds throughout will make running the football important, and the Vikings rushing defense is excellent. I expect the Vikings defensive line to dominate the Eagles offensive front, especially since the Eagles are without Lane Johnson (suspended). Washington's defensive line dominated the Eagles O-Line last weekend, and Minnesota's defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. The Vikings are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 vs. a team with a winning record. They are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games in the month of October. They are 6-0 in their last 6 road games vs. a team with a winning home record. A 19-0 angle. Take Minnesota. |
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10-22-16 | Oklahoma v. Texas Tech OVER 83.5 | 66-59 | Win | 100 | 122 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Texas Tech Red Raiders have already played three games that have gone over this total. Oklahoma has played two that went over this total as well. Texas Tech's offense was disappointing last weekend and Kliff Kingsbury was upset with their pace and production. Look for a better output from them in this one. Oklahoma's pass defense has some really ugly numbers so far this year. The Sooners are susceptible to big plays in the passing game. Texas Tech's defense is among the worst in the nation, and I see the Sooners breaking big plays on a constant basis here. While it is hard to set a total there, my number for this game was 89. Take the over in what should be a shootout. |
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10-22-16 | Old Dominion v. Western Kentucky OVER 66 | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 65 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers still have a dynamic offense led by Mike White at quarterback. White isn't as good as Brandon Doughty was in this system, but he's still very good. It helps having an outstanding wide receiver on the outside in Taywan Taylor. Also, Anthony Wales is a very good running back who is sometimes overlooked. Old Dominion's pass defense numbers aren't too bad so far this year, but look at who they have played. The only decent passing attack they have played all year is NC State. Western Kentucky will easily be the best passing offense they have gone against. In the last two years, Western Kentucky scored 66 and 55 points against Old Dominion. I don't think they'll reach those numbers, but it won't surprise me if they get close to 50 here. Western Kentucky's defense is down a notch from last year. They lost some key guys in the secondary, and the Hilltoppers have been giving up a lot of big plays through the air. The tempo should be pretty quick in this one. The weather is also expected to be great. The high of 65 degrees with almost no wind is perfect. Take the over. |
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10-22-16 | Tulane v. Tulsa OVER 53 | 27-50 | Win | 100 | 118 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Tulsa Golden Hurricane rank number one in the country in terms of pace. I have looked for spots to play Tulane unders this year, but with the quick line move down, there is too much value on the over for me to pass on this one. Tulsa has been a scoring machine this year. Outside of their loss to Ohio State, they have scored at least 31 points in every game. In fact, Houston is the team that held them to 31 points. In the rest of their games, they have scored at least 41 points. Tulsa will play extremely fast, and Tulsa's offense should be able to get some big plays on this Tulane defense. Tulane hasn't been playing teams that play the style that Tulsa does. On the other side, Tulane's option offense should break some plays against a weak rushing defense. Take the over. |
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10-22-16 | Memphis v. Navy +125 | 28-42 | Win | 125 | 41 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star ML Underdog Special* Navy essentially had a bye week after their game was canceled last weekend. Navy is an extremely well-coached team and that extra week of preparation should help them a lot in this game. Memphis has run up some impressive final scores this year, but they haven't beaten a team as good as Navy. Memphis had a misleading win at home against Temple two weeks ago. Temple out gained them in that game and Memphis was very fortunate to win that game. Navy dominated Memphis last season at Memphis. While many see this as a good chance for Memphis to get revenge, this Memphis team isn't as good as last year's version. Additionally, the weather could play a big role in this game. Winds of 25 mph are expected throughout the game. Since Navy runs the triple option and almost never throws the ball, this weather should hurt Memphis much more than Navy. Navy is well rested and I like them to win as a small home underdog. Take Navy. |
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10-22-16 | Hawaii v. Air Force OVER 61.5 | 34-27 | Loss | -107 | 40 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons can run the football extremely well. They run the triple option and they are going to run it constantly. Hawaii hasn't been able to stop the run at all this year. In fact, opponents are averaging a whopping 5.6 yards per carry against this Hawaii defense. They aren't accustomed to defending the triple option, and Air Force put up 58 points on them last year. The Hawaii offense is playing faster of late, and Dru Brown has done a nice job at quarterback. Hawaii has a quality back in Saint Juste and I expect some big plays out of him. Air Force's secondary has been susceptible to big plays this year, and Hawaii should pick up some big ones both through the air and on the ground. Three of Hawaii's last five games have topped 70 points. Air Force has allowed 80 points in their last two games. Take the over. |
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10-22-16 | Ohio v. Kent State UNDER 46 | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 65 h 7 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of Week* The Kent State Golden Flashes cannot throw the football. They have tried multiple guys at quarterback, and quite frankly, none of them have played well at all. Kent finally decided to go with Nick Holley a couple weeks ago. Nick Holley returns punts, played wide receiver and running back in the past, and can't throw the football well. Still, Holley was the best option the team had, because he is a good runner. Unfortunately for Kent, Holley got hurt last week in the team's 18-14 loss at Miami (Ohio). Holley suffered a concussion and is questionable to play Saturday.  If Holley doesn't play this weekend, the team is thinking of going to another running back who has no experience at quarterback. This is a really messy situation for Kent State. Consider that Ohio is their opponent here, and Ohio is great at stopping the run. The Bobcats are #15 in the nation in yards per carry allowed at 3.15 per carry. Kent is going to be very one dimensional if Holley plays, and just about 100% one dimensional if Holley doesn't play. I have to think that if Ohio knows the run is coming, they will be able to stop it. On the other side, Kent State's defense has been pretty good this year, at least when they play against MAC schools. Ohio's offense is nothing special either. Both of these teams prefer to run the football and the advanced forecast for this game is calling for 15-20 mph winds which would certainly make it even harder to throw the ball. I think 46 is several points too high. Given all the factors going into this one, I'm going to take the under for a big play here. TOP Total of the Week. |
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10-22-16 | Miami (OH) v. Bowling Green -4 | 40-26 | Loss | -107 | 37 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star College Football ATS Play of Week* The Bowling Green Falcons were expected to win the MAC East this season, but the started out by getting blown out by both Ohio State and Memphis. Bowling Green clearly wasn't ready for the season to begin, but they have definitely played better of late. James Morgan has taken over at quarter back for the Falcons. The freshman has proven to be a nice spark for the offense. Bowling Green played Toledo very tight last week, and Toledo is a very good team. Miami is coming off their first win of the season. They won an ugly 18-14 win over Kent State last weekend. Miami has been totally one-dimensional all season. They are averaging only 2.6 yards per carry. They don't have a single rush of 30 yards or more all season. I'll look to buy low on Bowling Green in this spot. This is a great chance for the Falcons to pick up a MAC win against a far less talented team. Take Bowling Green. |
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10-16-16 | Falcons v. Seahawks UNDER 45.5 | 24-26 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks defense is still a force to be reckoned with, and they are well-rested and healthy right now. This Seattle team has a lot of pride, and they have definitely heard all about how great the Falcons passing attack is all week long. Atlanta's passing attack has been tremendous this year. They lead the league by a wide margin in passing yards per play, but I see them struggling with two things this week. First, I think they will have a tough time with the Seahawks secondary, which is obviously very strong. Secondly, the weather will hurt them here. Steady rain and winds of 20 mph through the game will make it much harder than normal for Matt Ryan to throw the deep ball. Seattle prefers to play at a slow tempo and win a lower scoring game. I like Seattle's chances to win this game, and I think they'll get the type of game they want in this contest. The windy rainy weather helps Seattle, and I don't see the Falcons being able to move the ball nearly as consistently as they normally would. The public is playing the over here, but the sharp money has taken a big position on the under. I agree with that, and I'm on the under here as well. The under is 23-9-1 in the Falcons last 33 games. The under is 7-3 in Seattle's last 10. Take the under. |
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10-16-16 | Chiefs -119 v. Raiders | Top | 26-10 | Win | 100 | 37 h 11 m | Show |
*5 Star NFL Game of the MONTH* The Oakland Raiders are 4-1, but they haven't proven to me that they are a good team. Oakland has a bunch of flaws. The Raiders defense, which many expected to be better, is allowing a whopping 7.0 yards per play. That is worst in the NFL by half a yard. That tells me that despite not being put in bad positions (short fields) the Raiders defense is letting the opposition do whatever they want. The Kansas City Chiefs haven't played well so far this year. Expectations were really high for them coming into the season. Andy Reid has been amazing at getting his team ready after a bye week. Reid's teams are 15-2 straight up in this situation, which is what matters to us, taking the moneyline in this game. Jamaal Charles is expected to get a heavier workload here, and that should be important with rain and 15-20 mph winds expected during this game. The Oakland Raiders rely heavily on David Carr and his arm, so I believe the weather gives us another advantage with Kansas City. Latavius Murray isn't expected to play for Oakland here. The Raiders have been terrible at home in the last few years, and they have been fortunate to win at least two of their games so far this year. Look for Kansas City to come to Oakland ready to play. The Chiefs better ground game and their preparation off a bye are the big keys in this game where weather will play a role. Take Kansas City on the moneyline. NFL Game of the MONTH |
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10-16-16 | Panthers v. Saints OVER 53 | 38-41 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Early Bird Special* The New Orleans Saints and Carolina Panthers get together in a game that has all the makings of a shootout. This one is played on the fast track at the Superdome, which is a definite positive for the over. Last year, when these two played at the Superdome, the final was Carolina 41 and New Orleans 38. Cam Newton has been cleared to play for the Panthers here. Newton has gotten off to a slow start this year, but if there was ever a good spot to bounce back, this is it. The Saints defense is arguably the worst in the NFL, and this secondary gives up big plays constantly. The Panthers defensive dropoff from last year to this year has been amazing. Carolina is giving up 12.44 yards per pass on the year. Only Oakland and Tampa Bay have been worse in that area. Drew Brees is still more than capable of torching a secondary, and I see him making a lot of big plays in this game. Big play potential on both sides and no bad weather conditions to deal with. The over is 7-0-1 in the Saints last 8 home games. The over is 6-0 in the Saints last 6 vs. a team with a losing record. A 13-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-15-16 | UCLA v. Washington State UNDER 53 | 21-27 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UCLA Bruins have an injured star quarterback. Josh Rosen's status is very much in doubt for this game, and that is why the number is where it is on the spread in this game. Rosen won't be healthy if he does play, and I think it would be unwise for him to play after watching him at the end of last game. UCLA's backup, Mike Fafaul looked terrible in his quarter of play against Arizona State, and I think the UCLA offense is in trouble if he is under center. Washington State has been running the ball more of late, and their offensive line is much improved this season. The Cougars defense is also light years better than it was in previous seasons. UCLA's defense is very talented, and they have kept the Bruins in several games this season when the offense has been bad. The single biggest reason I'm making this bet though is the weather. The weather forecast for Pullman, Washington on Saturday night calls for steady rain and wind gusts of 30 mph. That's great weather for an under. Look for a sloppy game here. Take the under. |
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10-15-16 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 60 | Top | 23-28 | Win | 100 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB Hidden GEM TOP Total* The Colorado State Rams go to Boise to take on the Boise State Broncos here. The weather should be a major factor in this game. There is currently a 70% chance of rain and more importantly heavy wind during this game. The wind is expected to be 15-25 mph with gusts of 40 mph during the game. Wind like that makes it very difficult to throw the football. Last weekend, the games that were played during Hurricane Matthew in the southeast all stayed well under the posted totals. It was a perfect example of why the biggest weather factor to betting totals is wind. A lot of wind is a big positive for the under. Colorado State's best quarterback, Colin Hill, just went down with an injury last weekend, and now the Rams must go back to quarterbacks who struggled in the first two weeks of the season. Boise State's defense has been better than expected this year, and CSU has a poor running game. I find it hard to believe that Colorado State will score much at all in this one. Boise State is likely to be content running the ball with a big lead late in the game and ugly weather conditions. The under is 8-1 in Boise State's last 9 home games. I liked the under some before the weather conditions looked so bad, and I like the under a lot when factoring in the weather. Take the under big. *This line has moved and I expect it to continue to move when people get the weather report here. I would play this as a 5 star play as low as 55 points and for 4 stars below that level. Thank you* |
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10-15-16 | Connecticut v. South Florida UNDER 53.5 | 27-42 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 26 m | Show | |
***FINAL CORRECTION*** *4 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies are great at making a game low scoring. Even the high flying Syracuse Orange could only get the total to 55 points when they played against UConn. UConn has one of the worst offenses in college football. The Huskies can't throw it and they definitely can't run the ball. The UConn front seven on defense is very good though, and USF runs the ball a bunch. I expect UConn to do a solid job slowing them down. Last year, the meeting between these two was 28-20, and I think a total of 47 or 48 is about where this one should be. Take the under. |
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10-15-16 | Iowa State +15 v. Texas | 6-27 | Loss | -115 | 27 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Iowa State* The Iowa State Cyclones have been extremely competitive of late. Matt Campbell did a great job at Toledo, and I expect him to continue to help this Iowa State team improve in the long term. Lanning has been playing well at quarterback, and the Cyclones offensive line is improved thanks to Campbell's style. Texas is coming off a close loss to Oklahoma. The Longhorns defense is getting shredded by everyone right now. While I do think Texas wins this game, I believe the spread is inflated. Why? Likely because of the revenge factor being overblown. Texas lost 24-0 at Iowa State last year. Still, the Longhorns need to prove to me that they are good enough to cover this big of a spread against a decent opponent. Texas appears to have team chemistry problems. Iowa State has covered 3 straight meetings between these two. Additionally, 55% of the bets here are on Texas, but 77% of the money is on Iowa State. Another close game here. I'll take the underdog. Take Iowa State. |
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10-15-16 | Texas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 66 | 34-40 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Texas State Bobcats and Louisiana Monroe Warhawks are similar teams. They both have first year head coaches who are looking to push the tempo and institute a pass happy offense. Neither of these teams are very good, but I think the offenses will look good in this one against two bad pass defenses. I like spots like this where we see two offenses that aren't all that efficient, but they are going to run a ton of plays against a really bad defense. It generally makes the offenses look a lot better than they are, and turns the game into a shootout. I expect both teams to air it out constantly, and big plays for both sides are likely during this game. Look for a close game with the offenses having the edge throughout. Take the over. |
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10-15-16 | Virginia Tech v. Syracuse OVER 65 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* I believe we are getting some value here from Syracuse playing a really low scoring game last week. It is important to note though that game was played in North Carolina when Hurricane Matthew was going through. All the games played in those conditions were extremely low scoring. This one will be played in a dome, and this is a fast track. Virginia Tech's offense has been very efficient this year, and I think they'll carve up this Syracuse defense. Syracuse pushes the tempo so well, that they will get a bunch of cracks at scoring here, and they should be successful enough to get us past this number. Take the over. |
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10-15-16 | North Carolina +7.5 v. Miami (Fla) | 20-13 | Win | 100 | 61 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on North Carolina* The North Carolina Tar Heels played terribly in a hurricane last weekend at home against Virginia Tech. Those conditions were awful though, and North Carolina depends heavily on the passing game. I think this line is an overreaction to the Tar Heels poor play last game. Mitch Trubisky threw his first two interceptions of the season in last weekend's game. Trubisky had thrown for 400 yards or more in his two games before that contest. Miami's defense hasn't faced a really good passing attack yet. I think Ryan Switzer and the Heels receivers will find some openings in the Hurricanes secondary in this one. Miami has to bounce back from a really difficult loss to Florida State last week. The Hurricanes lost by a point after their extra point was blocked in the closing minutes. Can they bounce back right away? I'm not so sure. The Tar Heels are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 as an underdog. Brad Kaaya is banged up, and he's key to the Hurricanes offensive success. Grab the points. Take North Carolina. |
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10-15-16 | Central Michigan v. Northern Illinois +125 | 34-28 | Loss | -100 | 37 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Northern Illinois ML* The Northern Illinois Huskies have double revenge against the Central Michigan Chippewas. Central Michigan has beaten Northern Illinois two times in a row, and the Chippewas were a 7.5 point underdog and 1 point underdog in those two games. Northern Illinois is having a really down season compared to what this program is accustomed to. The Huskies though have shown a lot of improvement in their last two games. They outgained Ball State by 226 yards on the road and then played Western Michigan (the class of the MAC) to a close game on the road last week. Anthony Maddie has been playing very well from the quarterback position for Northern Illinois. Central Michigan has actually been disappointing ever since their win at Oklahoma State early this year. Central Michigan's defense allowed 49 points to Virginia in a loss, and Central Michigan was fortunate to win last week at home against Ball State. Another key here is the weather. Northern Illinois is a running team all the way. Central Michigan relies heavily on the passing game. The wind is expected to be blowing at 20 mph or so during this game. That helps Northern Illinois. I think Northern Illinois wins this game outright. Take Northern Illinois on the moneyline. |
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10-15-16 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State OVER 70.5 | 44-43 | Win | 100 | 119 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Western Kentucky Hilltoppers defense is worse than it was a year ago. They lost some key pieces in the secondary. MTSU is no better than mediocre on the defensive end. These two teams both love to air it out early and often. Both of these teams look to push the tempo and get as many possessions as possible. Brent Stockstill is one of the most underrated quarterbacks in the country, and he should have a huge game for MTSU here. They've had two weeks to prepare and they play a Western Kentucky team that just gave up 55 points to LA Tech. White has been a pretty good fit for Western Kentucky, and the MTSU defense has been torn up several times this year. The Hilltoppers have a pretty good running game as well. Big plays all game from both teams. Take the over. |
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10-15-16 | Western Kentucky v. Middle Tennessee State -2 | 44-43 | Loss | -112 | 108 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on MTSU* The MTSU Blue Raiders have a really underrated quarterback in Brent Stockstill. I love him in this new system under offensive coordinator Tony Franklin. Stockstill is a guy who is extremely accurate, and he has plenty of arm to throw it deep and do it accurately. Western Kentucky is still getting the same amount of respect from oddsmakers that they received last year. This Hilltoppers team is pretty good, but they are definitely down a couple notches from last year. While W Kentucky had a game last week, MTSU had a bye week to prepare for this game. The Hilltoppers secondary has been subpar this year. They lost two key guys from the secondary from last year and it is showing. Western Kentucky drubbed MTSU 58-28 last year, so MTSU has some serious revenge on their minds. White is a big downgrade from Doughty for the W Kentucky offense. Stockstill has good weapons around him and MTSU's home crowd will be fired up about this big matchup. Lay the short price here. Take MTSU. |
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10-15-16 | Illinois v. Rutgers UNDER 53.5 | Top | 24-7 | Win | 100 | 116 h 18 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Under* The Illinois Fighting Illini don't know yet if Wes Lunt is going to play here. Illinois hasn't had much success on offense with him, but the drop off is large when he isn't playing as well. The Illinois defense should improve with Lovie Smith and a good defensive coordinator. The Rutgers offense scored 0 points on Ohio State and 0 on Michigan. Back to back shutouts! Rutgers lost their best offensive player (Grant) a couple weeks ago, and this team is totally lost on offense. I had this one lined at 47 points, and I see a bunch of value here. Neither team plays very fast, and both offenses are extremely inefficient. I see a sloppy game all the way that stays well below the posted total. Take the under big. *This line has moved the last couple days. I recommend playing this as a top rated play as low as 51, and for 4 stars below that level. Thank you* |
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10-15-16 | Iowa v. Purdue OVER 50.5 | Top | 49-35 | Win | 100 | 116 h 17 m | Show |
*5 Star College Football TOP Total of the Week* The Purdue Boilermakers are good at turning things into a high scoring game. Why? They are much improved on offense, and they should be able to run the ball against an Iowa defensive front that is actually allowing more than 4 yards per carry this year. Purdue also has a terrible defense that gives up a bunch of big plays. Beathard is a good quarterback for Iowa, and the Hawkeyes have a strong offensive line that will dominate Purdue's defensive front. Purdue is pushing the tempo and playing about as fast as anyone in the Big Ten right now. The Boilermakers have consistently turned the ball over in places where the opposition gets quick scores, and I think that happens again in this one. Iowa's defense isn't as strong as normal, and Purdue's offense is better than normal. I had this total lined at 58 points. Take the over big. *This line has moved the last couple days. I recommend a top rated play up to 53 points, and a 4 star rating at a higher level than that. Thank you* |
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10-09-16 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 50.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total PERFECTION* The Oakland Raiders and San Diego Chargers meet in Oakland on Sunday afternoon. Both of these teams have quarterbacks fully capable of slinging it around and I see a lot of reasons to believe they will both have big games on Sunday. Phillip Rivers has always been an above average quarterback in the NFL. It has just been a question of the talent around him, most specifically what is going on in front of him on the offensive line. The offensive front is actually healthier than normal for San Diego, and Rivers has had some big games through the air already. The big problem for San Diego is their secondary. The Chargers will be without a starting safety and their top two cornerbacks for this game. Oakland has good weapons on the outside, and Derek Carr should have a field day here. At the same time, Oakland is missing safety Nate Allen as well. Rivers is likely to be able to pick apart this Raiders secondary. Oakland is allowing more passing yards per game than any other team in the NFL. San Diego is 6th worst in the league in that measure. The over is 6-0 in the last 6 in a game played by any team in either the AFC West or NFC West in their first game home following a 2 or more game road trip on the East coast. The over is 4-0 in the Chargers last 4 following a loss. The over is 4-0 in their last 4 after giving up 30 points or more. The over is 3-0-1 in the Raiders last 4 after gaining 90 yards or less on the ground last game. A 17-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-09-16 | Redskins v. Ravens OVER 44.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* We've gotten a discount here because of Hurricane Matthew. Matthew was expected to head north toward Baltimore, but the track of the hurricane has changed significantly in the past day. Now, the forecast for Baltimore is sunny on Sunday afternoon. The line has dropped 1.5 points due to the expected bad weather, and now we are getting a value. I liked the over before the line drop, but wanted to wait on the weather before playing this. Now, I expect this line to climb back up toward gametime on Sunday. Washington's defense is about as bad as you'll find in the NFL. Opponents are rushing for 4.88 yards per carry against them, and the Redskins secondary has been beaten deep consistently. Joe Flacco loves to throw the deep ball, and this is an opponent he should be able to exploit. Baltimore's defense didn't look very good against the Raiders last weekend. The Ravens hadn't played a good offense all year until last weekend. Washington isn't a great offense, but they are better on offense than the Browns, Bills, and Jaguars (the Ravens first 3 opponents). The over is 5-0 in the Redskins last 5 road games. The over is 6-0 in their last 6 following a win. Take the over. |
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10-09-16 | Titans v. Dolphins UNDER 43.5 | 30-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans offense hasn't impressed me this year. It really doesn't make sense that the team has decided to go to a pro style offense where they run it as often as possible and slow the game down. This is exactly the opposite of what Marcus Mariota was used to running in college. Now, Mariota is clearly regressing, and for some reason people seem surprised. This isn't a good offense for Mariota. Ryan Tannehill isn't to be trusted either, and the Dolphins offense in general has been really poor this year. Their performance against the Bengals last time out was miserable. They literally got nothing in that game after an early 74 yard touchdown pass. Miami had 8 first downs in that game. Tennessee is slowing the pace down more than any other team in the NFL so far this year. It's also important to note that 15 mph winds are expected during this game, which is a negative for scoring. The under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings between these two in Miami. Take the under. |
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10-09-16 | Texans v. Vikings UNDER 41 | 13-31 | Loss | -115 | 32 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Minnesota Vikings defense is dominating. Mike Zimmer is a tremendous head coach who still doesn't get enough credit. Minnesota is going to bring a good effort on the defensive end every single game. Houston's offense doesn't impress at this point, because I don't know what I'll get from Brock Osweiler. The Texans have good pieces at the wide receiver spots, but their offensive line is questionable and their running game is subpar now. Don't expect them to have much success here. Even without J.J. Watt, this Houston Texans defense is very good. Minnesota is dead last in the NFL in yards per carry so far this year. Sam Bradford has been very good in his role, but he'll be pressured a lot in this game by the Texans strong defensive front. Houston is playing at the 17th fastest pace in the NFL and Minnesota is 28th out of 32 teams. Both defenses have the upper hand. The under is 5-0 in the Texans last 5 games following a win. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 following an ATS cover. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 after allowing 90 yards or less on the ground. The under is 3-0 in the Vikings last 3 games. A 22-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-09-16 | Bears +5 v. Colts | 23-29 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Indianapolis Colts took a big risk when they decided to decline their chance to get a bye week after a trip to London. I think that was a bad decision, and we are likely to see the effects of that in this game. Indianapolis is often thought of as a good team, because they have won a lot of games in the past 3 years. The Colts are no longer a good team though. Now, we're asking a team that isn't any good to lay 5 points at home after a week of traveling overseas? I have to grab the points with the Bears here. Andrew Luck is still very good, but the pieces around him are terrible. The offensive line can't protect him. The Colts defense is one of the worst in the NFL. Chicago's defense is improved this year, and they are getting slightly healthier of late. Their linebackers are some of the best in the NFL. The Bears defense is much better than the Colts defense, and when I can get the much better defense and this many points, I'll grab it. I consider Brian Hoyer at least equal to if not better than Jay Cutler. The Colts secondary is bad and I expect Hoyer to have success here. In this game, 55% of the bets are on the Colts, but 65% of the money is on the Bears. Looks like the sharp side to me. Take Chicago here. |
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10-08-16 | Washington State +7.5 v. Stanford | 42-16 | Win | 100 | 99 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of Week* The Stanford Cardinal are coming off a humbling 44-6 loss against Washington. The Huskies dominated them in every way, but the biggest surprise was how they dominated the Stanford offensive front. Washington was in the backfield all game long. While some will say this is a great chance for Stanford to bounce back, this Stanford team is badly banged up right now. Stanford is likely to be without both starting corners in this game. If there is ever a week that it is bad to be without both starting corners, it is when you are playing Washington State and the Air Raid offense. Both Holder and Meeks are considered doubtful according to David Shaw. Luke Falk is perfect for the Washington State offense. Falk makes good decisions with the ball and his height helps him see over the defensive front. Look back at last year's game and you'll see that Stanford was extremely lucky to get out of Washington State with a win. The Cougars had 26 first downs compared to only 15 for Stanford. Washington State also outgained Stanford 442-312 yards. This Stanford team is down a couple notches from last year. The offensive line is weaker and Ryan Burns is a definite downgrade from Kevin Hogan. I think Washington State definitely has a shot to win this game outright, so I have to take them plus the 7.5 points. Washington State is 8-0 ATS in their last 8 games vs a team with a winning record. They are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 October games. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 Pac 12 games. A 23-1 angle. Take Washington State. |
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10-08-16 | UNLV v. San Diego State -15.5 | 7-26 | Win | 100 | 44 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on San Diego State* The San Diego State Aztecs were humbled last week in Mobile by South Alabama. This San Diego State team is a really good team, but Coach Rocky Long said the team started thinking it was going to be automatic in these games. The Aztecs had let their guard down. Coach Long said last week's loss was the best thing that could have happened to the team. San Diego State has a tremendous runner in Donnell Pumphrey. Pumphrey is unlikely to meet much resistance against the UNLV defensive front. UNLV has only played one decent rushing attack this year and that was UCLA. The Bruins ran for 219 yards on them. San Diego State should run for 300 yards or more in this one. A motivated San Diego State team looking to bounce back from an embarrassing loss is a team I want to back. Snead had a nice highlight run last week for UNLV, but he can't get anything going in the passing game for them. UNLV relies on the run, and San Diego State is top 15 in the nation in rushing defense. Take San Diego State. |
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