For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL |Â CFB |Â MLB |Â NBA |Â CBB |Â NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
11-17-18 | Air Force v. Wyoming UNDER 42.5 | 27-35 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Air Force and Wyoming have both been a bit questionable on defense against the pass this year, but both of these teams excel at stopping the run. That works out for this selection since both offenses are virtually unable to throw the ball. Air Force has the 71st best rushing attack (ypc) in the country this year when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Wyoming ranks 17th at stopping the run. Wyoming has the 47th best rushing attack (ypc) in the country when adjusted for strength of schedule played. Air Force ranks 24th at stopping the run. Both of these teams are much slower than the average team in terms of tempo. The weather forecast calls for 19 degrees with winds of 12-14 mph and about 4 inches of snow on Saturday. These conditions clearly help the under. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-17-18 | UL-Monroe v. Arkansas State OVER 64.5 | Top | 17-31 | Loss | -114 | 118 h 53 m | Show |
*5 Star Play Top Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves and UL Monroe Warhawks meet this Saturday and I expect a lot of points here. Arkansas State and ULM rank first and second in the Sun Belt in tempo. There will be a bunch of possessions in this game. Both teams are big play offenses and both defenses have given up a lot of big plays throughout the season. The strength of the ULM offense is their rushing attack. They are 39th in the nation in yards per carry. Arkansas State's biggest defensive weakness is against the run. Arkansas State has a big edge in the passing game against a terrible ULM secondary. Last year these teams played to a 67-50 final score. Arkansas State had 781 yards compared to 590 for ULM. Ironically, both of these teams have scored 38 and 44 points in their last two games leading into this one. The offenses are clicking right now and the offenses should have the upper hand all the way in this one. Take the over. Top Rated Play. |
|||||||
11-17-18 | Northwestern v. Minnesota OVER 47 | 24-14 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* This line has dropped four points during the week, and it is low enough now that I am going to take the over. Northwestern ranks 30th in the nation in tempo. The Wildcats have locked up the Big Ten West. I would expect them to continue to play hard for Pat Fitzgerald though. There might have been some concerns about the weather from some, but the only real concern here is the cold temperature. A temperature around 23 degrees is expected, but winds of just 6 or 7 mph are in the forecast. In the past 10 years, games with a temperature of 30 degrees or lower and less than 10 mph winds have cashed to the over at a 58.5% rate. Minnesota's defense is allowing a whopping 7.22 yards per play in the Big Ten. Northwestern's offense isn't very good, but they play fast and should be able to improve on their numbers from the year against this really weak defense. Minnesota's secondary has been very weak since Antoine Winfield Jr. has been out with an injury. The Minnesota offense has been much better since Morgan started playing at QB. Minnesota is averaging 34.5 points per game in their last four contests. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Dolphins v. Packers -10 | 12-31 | Win | 100 | 14 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* The Green Bay Packers are coming off two straight tough losses. Green Bay is clearly playing much better as the season moves along, and I see them bouncing back here against a poor Miami team. First, I'll note that Green Bay has played the 9th toughest schedule in the NFL. Miami has played the second easiest schedule in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers has a big moneymaker for bettors long-term, and even laying 8 points or more he has been money in the bank at home. He's been at his best coming off a loss. The single strongest area of the Green Bay defense is their pass rush. They rank third in the NFL when it comes to rushing the passer. Miami's pass protection ranks 24th, and the Dolphins have severe injuries on the offensive line. Miami will be without at least one starting offensive linemen. Two other starters on the line are gametime decisions with injuries. Coach Adam Gase said, "If you have a pulse, you're in the mix. We're out of guys" when asked about the status of his offensive line this week. Brock Osweiler is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and him behind a weak offensive line and facing an elite pass rush should worry Miami fans and coaches a lot. Osweiler has been bad in general, but he's been particularly bad on the road. How bad? He is 2-7 ATS in his last 9 road games. In those 7 road losses with Brock as the starter, his teams are losing by 19.2 points per game. Green Bay should get right against an overrated Miami team with injury issues and a bad quarterback. Take Green Bay. |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Colts | 26-29 | Push | 0 | 34 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Jaguars* The Jacksonville Jaguars have lost four straight games. The Colts have won their last two, though those were against two terrible opponents. The Colts have faced the 27th toughest schedule in the NFL thus far. The Jaguars have faced the 8th toughest schedule in the NFL. Before the season, everyone expected the Jaguars to be better than the Colts. I think they are still the better team. Their recent woes have inflated this line to the point where I have to take Jacksonville. I like the bye week as a chance for the Jaguars to prepare to make a final stand. Jacksonville still has a chance in this division. This is a weak division where no one is going to run away and hide. The Jaguars can't afford to lose this game though. Fortunately for them, they get Leonard Fournette back and they are going against the 25th ranked run defense in the NFL when adjusted for strength of schedule played. I expect the Jaguars to have success on the ground here. The Jaguars have the much better defense and are getting a full field goal. The Colts still have a lot to prove since they have beaten up on weak competition. Take the Jaguars. |
|||||||
11-11-18 | Patriots v. Titans +7 | 10-34 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL System Play SMASHER* The Tennessee Titans have been good against quality teams of late. They are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 vs. teams with a winning record. Tennessee seemed to have turned a corner in their tight loss against the Chargers 20-19 in London. The Titans then went and thumped the Cowboys in Dallas on Monday night. New England is clearly a very good team, but the Patriots haven't been very impressive on the road so far this year. They were dominated by the Jaguars and the Lions earlier in the season. They beat the Bears a couple weeks ago by a touchdown despite being outgained in that one. They then beat Buffalo, who is the worst team in the NFL. The Patriots are laying an awfully big number here against a Titans team that has potential and is playing well of late. The Titans have clearly played a tougher schedule than the Patriots to this point in the year as well. This one fits a contrarian system I follow that has done very well in the NFL. A home underdog of 6 points or more that is receiving less than 25% of the bets. This system is 64-25 ATS (72%) in the last 89 spots. I'll go contrarian and take the Titans at home here. Take Tennessee. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Southern Miss v. UAB UNDER 47.5 | 23-26 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* UAB ranks 8th in the country in yards per play allowed. Southern Miss ranks 16th in yards per play allowed. Both of these defenses are much improved from a year ago. Both offenses play much slower than the average team. UAB is favored here and is likely to be winning and running the clock and taking their time in the second half. Southern Miss has very little running game and UAB has a tremendous secondary. I think Southern Miss will have a lot of trouble scoring here. UAB and Southern Miss are both very good at not giving up big chunks of yardage. There should be a lot of moving clock here and a limited amount of big plays. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Arkansas State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 60.5 | 44-16 | Loss | -102 | 24 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves are the fastest paced team in the Sun Belt. They have a veteran quarterback and the best wide receivers in the conference. Coastal Carolina's defense has been extremely weak all year. Coastal Carolina is allowing a whopping 8.48 yards per play in the Sun Belt. That's easily worst in the league. Coastal Carolina is worst in both pass defense and run defense in the league. Coastal Carolina's triple option should be able to move the ball against a weak Arkansas State run defense. The Red Wolves are allowing 5.52 yards per carry in the conference. Coastal Carolina is 34th in the nation in yards per play. Arkansas State has allowed 28 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Coastal Carolina has allowed 30 plays of 30 yards or more. These are both among the worst in the nation. I see a lot of explosive plays back and forth here. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Virginia Tech v. Pittsburgh -3 | 22-52 | Win | 100 | 36 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of Week* The Pittsburgh Panthers started out the season playing poorly, but they have really come on of late. Pittsburgh now leads the ACC Coastal Division and this is a great chance for them to pull further ahead of Virginia Tech. The Hokies don't have the defense they have had in past years. Virginia Tech ranks 87th in yards per play allowed. They didn't have much depth up front and they have a lot of injury/suspension issues in the front seven. The Hokies are allowing 4.39 yards per carry this year. Pittsburgh is going to run the ball early and often here. Pitt ranks 12th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. The Panthers are averaging 5.77 yards per carry. Look for Pitt to have a lot of success running the ball here. Virginia Tech has been more reliant on the passing game this year. It is expected to be pretty windy here with winds of around 15 mph during this game. That hurts Virginia Tech more than Pitt. The Hokies don't have an explosive offense at all. They have only 15 plays of 30 yards or more this year. Pitt has played the 17th toughest schedule so far this year according to Sagarin. VA Tech has played the 51st toughest schedule. These are two teams headed in different directions right now. Take Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Mississippi State v. Alabama UNDER 54 | 0-24 | Win | 100 | 35 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This Alabama offense is tremendous, but Mississippi State clearly has the best defense they have faced so far this year. LSU ranks 39th in yards per play allowed. Mississippi State ranks 5th in yards per play allowed. Alabama will get their points here, but I think it will be tougher than it normally has for them this season. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Liberty +23.5 v. Virginia | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 22 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Liberty* The Virginia Cavs are in the middle of a battle for the ACC Coastal Division. Virginia plays two rival teams in the next two games after this. They play against Georgia Tech and then their main rival Virginia Tech. If there is one game they would overlook or sleepwalk through this game against Liberty is the one. For Liberty, this is one of the biggest games of the history of their program. Liberty's campus and Virginia's aren't that far apart, and Liberty is in their first year as an FBS program. Liberty should be supremely motivated here. The Flames are at least competitive under Turner Gill this year. This meets a non-conference system that has been extremely strong. Fading a big favorite late in the season in non-conference games has been a big moneymaker. Non-conference favorites of 13 points or more are hitting at only 42% ATS since 2005. This game means more to Liberty and Virginia should want to get out with a win and be ready for the next couple weeks. Additionally, Virginia is badly banged up on defense now. The Cavs are a running team that plays slowly and that limits their offensive possessions. Take Liberty. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Charlotte v. Marshall UNDER 45.5 | 13-30 | Win | 100 | 119 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Charlotte 49ers have changed the way they play this year. Charlotte was a fast paced team with a weak defense in the past. Now, the defense is the strength of this team and they are slowing things down and running the ball as much as possible to stay in the game. It has helped them stay competitive. They only allowed 7 points on defense against Tennessee last week. Marshall has the best defense in Conference USA, and it would surprise me quite a bit if Charlotte is able to do much of anything on offense in this game. Marshall beat Charlotte 14-3 last year on the road. I expect another low scoring game. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Troy v. Georgia Southern UNDER 50.5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -113 | 117 h 34 m | Show |
*5 Star Top Play Under* Troy has the best run defense in the Sun Belt Conference. Georgia Southern is going to run the ball consistently with their triple option attack. I expect Troy to be much better at stopping it than a normal team. Georgia Southern plays at the slowest pace of anyone in the country as well. A lot of moving clock and long drives. If they are doing anything other than scoring a touchdown it is helping the under. The Troy Trojans offense is a lot less explosive now that they are starting their backup quarterback. Troy has had some very low scoring games of late, and I think this one will trend the same way. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | BYU v. UMass OVER 55.5 | 35-16 | Loss | -110 | 116 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over * The UMass defense is extremely weak. How bad are they? They are 117th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are 121st in yards per carry allowed. UMass still pushes the pace on offense. They rank 28th in tempo in the country. I've been impressed by Ross Comis' play at quarterback. He hasn't been the big step down from Andrew Ford that I expected him to be. The Minutemen have continued to be excellent on offense. BYU's offense hasn't played a defense this weak so far this season, and I expect them to break a lot of big gainers. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-10-18 | Ohio State v. Michigan State UNDER 52 | 26-6 | Win | 100 | 37 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes have a good passing attack. Their problem has been an inability to run the football. Ohio State is 57th in the nation in yards per carry this year. Inside the Big Ten, Ohio State is averaging only 3.66 yards per carry in Big Ten play. Their offensive line has struggled in a big way. Michigan State ranks third in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Michigan State just held Maryland to 0.9 yards per carry last game. That's important because before that game Maryland had been the best rushing attack in the Big Ten. Ohio State's secondary has been a major problem this year, but I don't think Michigan State has the weapons needed to shred this secondary like some other opponents have. The Spartans are badly banged up at wide receiver. Michigan State will try to slow the game down as they always do. The weather here should play a role in this game. The weather forecast calls for winds of 18-20 mph with gusts up to 30 mph. There is even a chance for some wind-blown snow showers in this one. That should limit Ohio State's passing attack and make both offenses more predictable. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-08-18 | Panthers v. Steelers -3 | 21-52 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Carolina Panthers have played very well in recent weeks. The betting market has come in strongly on Carolina here because of their recent play. Carolina is getting 62% of the tickets thus far this week. I respect Carolina as a team, but I feel this price has moved too far. The Pittsburgh Steelers started the season a little slowly, but the Steelers are playing great football right now. They have dominated their last four opponents, and three of those four opponents are quality teams. The big difference for Pittsburgh of late has been their defense. The Steelers defense is up to 8th in yards per play allowed on the season. They are 3rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed in the last three games. Thursday night games have been great to favorites. Favorites are cashing at 60.5% ATS since 2005 in the NFL. Home favorites on Thursday night are at 61.6% during that period. The Steelers have faced the 12th toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year. Carolina has played only the 24th toughest schedule. Mike Tomlin's teams are 4-2 in their last 6 when having 5 days or less to prepare for a game. Ron Rivera's teams are 2-5 ATS in the same situation. Take Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Rams v. Saints OVER 57 | 35-45 | Win | 100 | 14 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Rams offense has all sorts of weapons. Cooper Kupp is now back in the fold, and he's been a great fit for this offensive system. Jared Goff is playing with all sorts of confidence right now. The Rams are 4th in the NFL in yards per play, and their offense is healthier this week. The Rams have a top three passing attack in the NFL, and they are up against a very weak secondary in the Saints. Eli Apple has been a major liability for this Saints secondary since coming over, and the Rams have the guys to take advantage of his weakness in coverage. The Saints are without Marcus Davenport as well, and he's a big loss as they try to rush the passer and disrupt the Rams rhythm. Look for Jared Goff and company to have a lot of success through the air here. The Rams also have arguably the best running back in the NFL in Todd Gurley. The Saints have a good run defense, but they can't be as aggressive against the run as they normally are in this one. The New Orleans Saints offense ranks 8th in the NFL in yards per play. Drew Brees can still sling it around, and he leads a very balanced attack. Kamara is a complete player who fits brilliantly in the system. The Saints have multiple very good route runners at wide receiver. If they need to run with power, the Rams defense ranks 26th against the run so far this year. New Orleans is excellent on offense in general, but they are elite offensively in the Superdome. Both teams prefer to play quickly, and I see a back and forth high scoring game here. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Bucs v. Panthers OVER 54.5 | 28-42 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs offense has been a lot better with Ryan Fitzpatrick out there than Jameis Winston so far this year. Tampa Bay ranks third in the NFL in yards per play. They are very explosive with a deep ball threat from Jackson on the outside and Evans is one of the best receivers in the NFL as well. The Panthers secondary ranks in the bottom 10 in the NFL in pass defense. Carolina ranks first in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bucs defense is below average against the run, and they are dead last in pass defense. Cam Newton is starting to play better, and he Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up now. Both quarterbacks are capable of big plays both ways. Fitzpatrick and Newton are prone to pick-sixes and/or big gainers. That helps the over significantly. The Panthers are a pretty big favorite here, and Tampa Bay showed last week how quick they can put up points late in a game where they are behind and the opposition is playing a prevent defense. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-04-18 | Steelers v. Ravens UNDER 47 | 23-16 | Win | 100 | 34 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The AFC North has been a tremendous division to bet the under in the past decade. The under is 59-34 (63.4% wins) in an AFC North contest with a total of 41 or higher. This is a hard hitting division where the teams know each other very well and the defenses typically have the upper hand. The Steelers defense looked very weak in the first couple games of the year, but they are now all the way up to 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Baltimore is 1st in yards per play allowed. Pittsburgh's offense is 6th in yards per play, while Baltimore is only 27th. The Steelers have been much worse offensively on the road the last few seasons though. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two in Pittsburgh. This is a game that means a bunch to both teams and I think this number is several points too high. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | USC v. Oregon State OVER 61.5 | 38-21 | Loss | -105 | 31 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The USC Trojans have a new play caller in this game (Clay Helton) and they get to go against the weakest defense in the Pac 12. In fact, Oregon State ranks 127th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. USC is expected to get JT Daniels back for this game, and the USC passing game has a huge advantage here. USC's receivers should have a big day with a lot of open space and height advantages for them over the DB's. Oregon State is allowing a whopping 8.2 yards per play in Pac 12 action this season. USC's defense has disappointed this year. Oregon State's offense has been much better than expected this season. Jake Luton came back last week for Oregon State and he threw for more than 300 yards against Colorado despite not playing any the first half. He gives the team a much better quarterback now. Look for Oregon State to get some big plays on offense as well. USC is without star linebacker Porter Gustin. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Louisiana Tech +23.5 v. Mississippi State | 3-45 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on LA Tech* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs were very competitive in Baton Rouge at night earlier this year. The Bulldogs have a quality team, and I would expect them to show up very motivated in this game. Mississippi State is certainly the much better team, but this is a bad spot for them. The Bulldogs are coming off a big win over Texas A&M, and they play Alabama next week. If there is one game where they could try to just go through the motions- this is the game. Skip Holtz has been fabulous as an underdog as well. Holtz's teams are 7-1 ATS as an underdog of 16 points or more in their last eight tries. In the long-term, taking a team like Mississippi State in a non-conference game toward the end of the year has been a bad move. Last year, the Bulldogs narrowly beat UMass in this same week as huge favorites. Grab the points. Take Louisiana Tech. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Notre Dame v. Northwestern +10 | 31-21 | Push | 0 | 40 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Northwestern* The Northwestern Wildcats are getting ten points at home in a rare night game against a big name foe. Northwestern is a team with some flaws, but the Wildcats have been tremendous as underdogs under Pat Fitzgerald. The last 32 times Northwestern was an underdog of 7 points or more, they have gone 23-9 ATS. Notre Dame is clearly a very good team. The Fighting Irish though have won a bunch of close games this year, and other than Michigan, they don't have any really impressive wins on the season. Notre Dame was fortunate to beat Vanderbilt at home. They won a close one against Pittsburgh. They also won a close game against Ball State. Northwestern has a strong defensive front, and I expect them to hold their own against this good Notre Dame offensive line. The Wildcats have a big special teams advantage as well, and that is something that can't be overlooked in this contest. Notre Dame's road games against Virginia Tech and Wake Forest ended up being easier opponents than some thought before the year. Northwestern is rounding into form and they are great as an underdog. I think this is a very close game all the way. Take Northwestern. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Tulane v. South Florida OVER 58.5 | 41-15 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Tulane is all about running the football, and that's a good thing against this USF defense. USF has a good secondary, but they are weak in the front seven. USF ranks 103rd in yards per carry allowed. Tulane's offense ranks 42nd in the nation in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. Look for Tulane to run the ball early and often in this option offense and get some big gainers here. South Florida's offense plays at a very quick tempo. The Bulls rank 8th in the nation in pace of play. They are up against a Tulane defense that ranks 81st in defensive yards per play when adjusted for strength of schedule faced. The Bulls should be able to move the ball well here. USF has a lot of speed on offense, and that should be hard for Tulane to defend. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Liberty v. UMass UNDER 70.5 | 59-62 | Loss | -105 | 25 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* UMass was involved in a low scoring game against UConn due to the weather last week. They are going to be involved in another game with pretty extreme weather here, and I have to take under this high of a number. The average forecast for this game calls for sustained winds of about 20 mph with gusts to 55 or 60 mph. That kind of weather completely changes the game. In fact, 20 mph sustained winds have made the under hit at a little over 63% in CFB in the long term. In this one we get sustained winds of that amount and some ridiculous gusts. While neither defense is good- it is important to note that UMass is without star quarterback Andrew Ford. Also, both of these teams are much worse running the football than throwing it. If the weather forecasts are right, they'll have to run it more here. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | South Carolina v. Ole Miss OVER 65 | 48-44 | Win | 100 | 114 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have a way of making everything high scoring. This is a really explosive offense with Jordan Ta'amu at the helm, but they also might have the worst defense in the SEC. South Carolina has moved to an uptempo offense. Both of these teams rank in the top 25 in the country in terms of pace of play. That will mean a bunch of possessions for both offenses, and Ole Miss games have a lot of big plays both ways because of their strong offense and weak defense. The SEC doesn't normally see these shootouts, so the oddsmakers kept the total a little too low here. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Texas A&M v. Auburn UNDER 49 | 24-28 | Loss | -108 | 42 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Texas A&M and Auburn meet on Saturday afternoon. Auburn has been a great under team so far this year, and I don't see that changing here. Texas A&M ranks 112th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies are trying to establish a run game more with Jimbo Fisher as their head coach. The problem for them here is Auburn's defensive line is tremendous, and they should get into the backfield often. Auburn's offensive line is a major problem, and Texas A&M has been strong on the defensive front this year. Stidham isn't playing with any confidence. Auburn has forced every game this year into a low scoring battle, and Texas A&M wants a physical low scoring game as well. The styles of these teams should lead to a tight low scoring game. Take the under. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Syracuse v. Wake Forest OVER 75.5 | 41-24 | Loss | -108 | 34 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* A lot of tempo should be expected here. These two teams rank 5th and 2nd out of 130 teams in the nation in terms of tempo. Wake Forest's running game is the strength of their offense, and that is where they have a big edge here. Wake Forest's rushing attack ranks 24th in the nation compared to the Syracuse run defense of 87th. Syracuse is a balanced offense, and this Wake Forest defense has been very weak against both passing and running teams this year. Wake Forest is 115th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Syracuse defense is one that I have singled out as in line for regression especially since they have been very fortunate on third down so far this year. Last year when these two teams met the final score was 64-43. Take the over. |
|||||||
11-03-18 | Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 46.5 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Maryland Terrapins offense is all about the running game. Maryland ranks third in the country in yards per carry this year, but they played a relatively soft schedule. Maryland still ranks 11th in rushing offense when adjusted for strength of schedule played, but Michigan State's defense ranks 7th in rushing defense. The Spartans aren't likely to let Maryland just run the ball consistently. Maryland hasn't proven capable of moving it through the air against anyone decent this season. Michigan State's offense is very weak right now. Their top two wide receivers from before the year are both out now. The Spartans rank 125th in the nation in yards per carry on offense. Maryland's defense ranks 27th in yards per play allowed so far this year. Michigan State always plays slowly under Mark Dantonio, and Maryland is playing very slowly this year. In fact, Maryland's tempo in Big Ten play alone would rank them among the ten slowest paced teams in the entire country. The weather here is an added bonus. The average of 5 different forecasts I reviewed is 16 mph winds with gusts to 25 mph. That is enough to slow the passing games down some more. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-30-18 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 68 | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 5 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This is a bunch of points for a game between two teams with bad offenses. Bowling Green is 98th in the nation in yards per play. Kent State is 108th in the nation in yards per play. Both of these teams are very weak on defense, and that's why this game has gotten bet up, but I see another key factor in this game. The forecast calls for winds of 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph as the game moves on. That's a lot of wind for this high of a total. In the long run games with winds of 15 mph or greater in NCAA FB have gone under the total at about 57%. Bowling Green slowed their tempo down in their first game under Pelini as head coach as well. The Falcons are likely to continue to play a bit slower now, and I would expect some more running the football. With the wind and this high of a total, I have to play the under. Take the under here. |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Saints v. Vikings OVER 52 | 30-20 | Loss | -108 | 52 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints are clearly a better offense in the dome, and they get to play a road game in another dome here. Drew Brees is as solid as ever, and he has some great weapons around him. Brees and the Saints offense have a clear advantage over a Vikings secondary that is very banged up. Adjusted for strength of schedule, I have the Vikings as the 22nd best pass defense in the NFL thus far. Xavier Rhodes might try to play here, but he is less than 100 percent. The Vikings are airing it out on offense this year. They are throwing on nearly 67% of their offensive plays. Adjusted for strength of schedule played- the Saints have the 29th best pass defense. Kirk Cousins has some elite receivers and they should be able to get open and create big plays in the passing game. Two teams who like to throw it around against subpar pass defenses. The over is 5-0 in the Vikings last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The over is 6-0-1 in the last 7 meetings between these two in Minnesota. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-28-18 | 49ers -1 v. Cardinals | 15-18 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on 49ers* The San Francisco 49ers lost at home three weeks ago to the Arizona Cardinals despite outgaining them by more than 200 yards. That was one of the most misleading final scores you will ever see. It's hard to score 28 points on only 220 yards of offense, but that's what the Cardinals did in that game thanks to the 49ers turnovers. San Francisco finished with five turnovers while the Cardinals had zero. That isn't likely to be equaled in this one. San Francisco is -0.1 in yards per play margin on the season. Arizona is -1.3 yards per play margin on the year. The 49ers are a terrible -15 in turnover margin, and history tells us that type of thing generally regresses toward the mean. The 49ers are playing with revenge on their minds from a recent loss, and they are definitely the more talented team here. Arizona has locker room issues, while the 49ers have been playing hard. Take San Francisco. |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Jets v. Bears UNDER 44 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 40 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Chicago Bears host the New York Jets on Sunday afternoon. This game will be played in some major wind by Lake Michigan at Soldier Field. Taking an average forecast from 5 different weather sources- the wind is expected to be about 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph during the game as well. That's the type of wind that can change the way a game is played. The Jets offense is very shorthanded right now with Bilal Powell out. He's a key player both in the running game and in the passing game (and pass blocking). Sam Darnold has been good this year, but he's without Powell and 2 starting wide receivers as well. The Bears have a good pass rush, and I think it will be hard for New York to move the ball consistently here. The Bears offense must rely heavily on the run game because Mitchell Trubisky just isn't good enough to rely on consistently. The strength of the Jets defense is the run defense though. New York ranks 6th in the NFL in rushing defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Both teams play at a pace slightly slower than average in the NFL. With both teams being forced to play conservatively and key offensive players missing- I like this one to stay low scoring in the wind. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Ravens v. Panthers UNDER 44 | 21-36 | Loss | -104 | 36 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Carolina Panthers host the Baltimore Ravens on Sunday afternoon. Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. This Ravens defense has no clear weaknesses. They are very good against both the run and pass, and they have a good pass rush. Carolina is an elite rushing team, but they haven't been good throwing the ball this year. Baltimore has a top three run defense in the NFL. Carolina has only faced one top run defense this year (Dallas), and they struggled mightily with them in a 16-8 win. The Baltimore offense ranks 28th in the NFL in yards per play. That isn't good to start with, but it is especially weak when you realize they have played quite a few mediocre or worse defenses. The Baltimore running game is non-existent. I see this as a hard hitting contest that stays close and low scoring. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-28-18 | Eagles v. Jaguars UNDER 43.5 | 24-18 | Win | 100 | 40 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Blake Bortles has been a mess and this Jaguars offense is without their star running back Leonard Fournette. Jacksonville has scored 7 points or less in 3 of their last 5 games. I don't trust this offense one bit. Jacksonville's defense is still excellent. Adjusted for strength of schedule played I have the Jaguars as the best pass defense in the NFL. They have a good pass rush as well, and I think they'll make life tough on Wentz in this one. The Eagles offense ranks 26th in yards per play on the season. That is despite playing only the 26th toughest schedule in the NFL this season. The Eagles struggle in pass protection, and that's a problem in this matchup. The weather could play a role here. Winds of about 15 mph are expected and there is a 25% chance of rain. It isn't the primary reason I took this under, but it's a nice bonus. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-27-18 | NC State v. Syracuse OVER 61 | 41-51 | Win | 100 | 122 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Syracuse Orange have two very good quarterbacks. NC State's defense isn't as good as their statistics would suggest. NC State's defense was exposed last week against Clemson, and I expect them to struggle the rest of the way. NC State's secondary is no better than mediocre, and they can be beaten deep by good wide receivers. The Syracuse defense is in line for some major regression to the mean. Syracuse is only allowing opponents to convert on 24.76% on 3rd down. That isn't going to continue. Syracuse ranks 83rd in yards per play overall and 96th in ypc allowed. Why would a defense that can't stop the run be good on third downs? It's a perfect setup for regression and many more points allowed going forward for Syracuse. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-27-18 | Arkansas State v. UL-Lafayette OVER 65.5 | 43-47 | Win | 100 | 122 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Arkansas State's offense was disappointing in the non-conference, but they are going to score a bunch of points in the Sun Belt. The Red Wolves have the best quarterback in the conference in Hansen and they have a great group of wide receivers. Arkansas State also ranks 32nd in the nation in tempo. Louisiana-Lafayette ranks 14th in the nation in yards per play. The Ragin' Cajuns have some really talented skill position players, and they have been an explosive plays machine. Louisiana has 24 plays of 30 yards or more which is 11th most in the country. Both Arkansas State and Louisiana are playing faster inside the Sun Belt than they were in non-conference contests. Arkansas State is 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Louisiana is 121st in the nation in yards per play allowed. Fast-paced and big plays back and forth. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-27-18 | Washington v. California UNDER 45 | 10-12 | Win | 100 | 41 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Cal Golden Bears defense has been very good this year. Cal ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Cal is allowing opponents to convert on only 31.78% of their 3rd downs this year. The Bears should be able to slow down a Washington offense that isn't quite as dynamic as it was a couple years ago. Jake Browning's quarterback play has been very poor for Washington this year. They have scored TD's on only 51% of their trips into the red zone, and much of that has to do with Browning's poor decision making. Cal's offense has been a mess all year. The Bears have turned the ball over 20 times this season. Cal doesn't have any explosiveness either. Cal only has 7 plays of 30 yards or more all season, which is in the bottom 5 in the country. As far as tempo- both teams have slowed their pace of play inside the conference. Chris Petersen has shown that he will play things conservatively if Washington gets a lead, and they are a double digit favorite here. This is a low total, but Washington has already played 3 games that have stayed under this total. Cal has played 4 games that have stayed under this number. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-27-18 | South Florida v. Houston OVER 72 | 36-57 | Win | 100 | 118 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Houston ranks first in the nation in tempo. South Florida ranks seventh in the nation in tempo. Briles is a great offensive mind, and Houston's offense is firing on all cylinders right now. Houston hasn't scored less than 41 points in a game all year. The Cougars are averaging 48.7 points per game this year. Houston has a very good running game. The Cougars are averaging 6.16 ypc this year. Houston is far better in the running game than most people realize. Why is that important? The way to beat South Florida's defense is on the ground with explosive runs. Houston should be able to do just that. South Florida is averaging 35.6 points per game this year. The Bulls have a lot of potential on the offensive end. These are two very explosive offenses. Houston has 26 plays of 30 yards or more this year. South Florida has 24 plays of 30 yards or more. Tons of tempo and a high scoring contest. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-27-18 | Oregon State v. Colorado UNDER 62.5 | 41-34 | Loss | -108 | 38 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Colorado Buffaloes are likely to either be without Laviska Shenault this weekend or he will be limited. Colorado needs Shenault healthy for later in the season because they are still in the Pac 12 South race. I would be surprised if they want to risk him playing with his turf toe injury in this one. Oregon State is easily the worst team in the Pac 12. The Beavers are likely to be starting their third string quarterback (Colletto) in this one. Their first two quarterbacks are both injured. Colletto is seen as more of a runner, and his passing accuracy is a big question mark. Oregon State is averaging only 4.65 yards per play in Pac 12 action. Colorado's offense isn't even close to the same without Shenault. They can and will score quite a few on Oregon State, but they aren't nearly as explosive. Colorado will likely eat up more time in the process of scoring. Additionally, Mike MacIntyre isn't a guy who has typically run up the score on opponents. Both teams are playing significantly slower in recent weeks, likely because of their offensive injuries to key players. The wind will be a factor here. Sustained winds of 15 mph with gusts to 26 mph are forecast during this game. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-27-18 | Texas Tech v. Iowa State -4 | 31-40 | Win | 100 | 35 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB ATS Play of Week* The Iowa State Cyclones have been underrated for a long time. Iowa State has played the number one toughest schedule in the country according to Sagarin, and they still have been very solid. Iowa State is 44th in the nation in yards per play margin. Iowa State didn't have a reliable quarterback until they made the switch to Brock Purdy. Purdy is a freshman who has looked great in his first two games at the helm, and his ability to both run and pass give this Iowa State offense a much different look. I expect the Cyclones to be able to put up much bigger numbers on offense moving forward. Texas Tech is 60th in the nation in yards per play differential, despite playing a much weaker schedule than Iowa State. The Red Raiders defense is better than it used to be, but they still give up far too many big plays. Matt Campbell continues to be one of the best coaches in the country that not many people are talking about. Campbell's teams have been moneymakers ATS. In either the underdog role or laying 5 points or less his teams are 29-12 ATS. I give Iowa State a big coaching advantage in this one. The Cyclones have a good home field advantage and I'll lay the short number. Take Iowa State. |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 41.5 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 42 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Redskins/Cowboys CASH* The Washington Redskins and Dallas Cowboys meet in what is always a hard fought rivalry contest. Dallas has been playing much better football of late, and Washington is coming off a nice win over Carolina last weekend. The Dallas defense is the strongest unit on either team. Dallas has been very good on defense all year, and now they get Sean Lee back after he has been out with an injury the last couple weeks. This Cowboys defense is pretty good without Lee this year, but they are elite with him on the field. Lee is one of the most important defenders in the NFL. Dallas ranks 5th in the NFL in yards per play allowed overall this year. Washington's defense has been solid this year as well. The Redskins gave up a lot to New Orleans in the Superdome, but other than that this unit has been very good. Washington is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed this season. Dallas is 25th in yards per play on offense. Washington is 26th in offensive yards per play. These two offenses haven't been consistent at all. Washington has major injury issues on the offensive line, and Dallas should be in the backfield a lot here. Dallas' passing game isn't good enough, and they rely very heavily on Ezekiel Elliot. The wind forecast in this game is 15-25 mph early in the game and 12-16 mph by the end of the game. That's plenty to make the teams more conservative. I expect a lot of running clock and a low scoring contest here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Saints v. Ravens UNDER 50 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 109 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens have the top defense in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore is allowing only 4.4 yards per play so far this season. The Ravens defense excels at pressuring the quarterback, as the Titans found out the hard way last weekend. This New Orleans offense is clearly very good. Still, the Saints are dealing with the best defense they have played this year. They are also away from the friendly confines of the Superdome. This one will be played on grass in Baltimore in chilly weather. That makes a big difference. Baltimore's offense hasn't been able to run the ball at all. That allows opponents to get after the passer and the Ravens are too one-dimensional to be a good offense in the NFL. A big key here is the weather. Across the board the forecasts are for winds around 15 mph with gusts to 20 mph. Simply betting high totals in windy games is a great way to make money betting the NFL in the long run. The chilly weather and the grass is a negative for the Saints offense as well. If the wind is especially bad here, it makes both teams run the ball even more, and that takes away the strengths of these two offenses. When the total is 47 or higher and the wind is 9 mph or more in New Orleans road games- the under is 10-1 in the last 11 contests. This one fits this system. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-21-18 | Lions v. Dolphins OVER 46.5 | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 39 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Over* Detroit's defense hasn't been impressive at all this year. Detroit has allowed 23 points or more in 4 of their first 5 games. The Lions are 26th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 6.0. The Miami Dolphins have a lot of speed on offense. Brock Osweiler will be starting at quarterback again this week. I'm certainly not a big fan of his, but he has some really good speed on the outside, and the Lions lack top end speed in the secondary. The Miami defense ranks 23rd in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Cameron Wake is questionable for this game, and he is arguably their best defender. Detroit is a very pass-heavy offense, and Miami's pass defense ranks in the bottom 5 in the NFL in all major pass defense categories. Matt Stafford should be able to air it out on this defense. Helping both offenses is the referee crew. Jerome Bogers' crew will be doing this game. This crew is famous for lots of holding and pass interference penalties on the defense. The over is 90-64 in this crew's 154 games. Two bad defenses and offenses with big play ability. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Oregon v. Washington State -2.5 | 20-34 | Win | 100 | 42 h 56 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Washington State* The Oregon Ducks have had a really tough schedule the last few weeks. They lost in overtime at home to Stanford in a game they obviously should have never lost. Oregon then bounced back to beat Cal on the road. They deserve credit for bouncing back in a spot like that, and that had to be an emotional win after losing to Stanford in the fashion they did. Then last week they beat Washington in overtime in a game that was misleading. Washington got the better of Oregon in that game according to the box score, but Oregon was able to sneak out with a hard fought win. There has to a be down game for Oregon coming somewhere soon after this recent run of emotional contests. Oregon must now go to Pullman, which has always been one of the toughest places to play in the Pac 12, and take on a very solid Washington State team that had a bye week to prepare for this game. To make it an even bigger spot, ESPN's College Gameday is in Pullman for the first time ever this weekend. This is going to be a raucous environment. Washington State throws the ball 72% of the time on offense, and that makes them the most pass-happy offense in the nation. Oregon's run defense is strong, but they have struggled against the pass all year. Oregon ranks 103rd in the nation in yards per pass attempt allowed. Washington is going to air it out here, and they should have success. Situationally this sets up beautifully for Mike Leach's team, and I like them here. Take Washington State. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Texas State v. UL-Monroe OVER 59 | 14-20 | Loss | -105 | 122 h 46 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks are a great over team. UL Monroe is one of the worst defenses in the nation. They are 126th in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Warhawks have what is arguably the worst pass defense in the nation. Texas State is mediocre defensively. The Bobcats offense is a weakness, but they have shown some very positive signs in recent weeks in the passing game, and I think they will be able to get it going against this UL Monroe pass defense. Texas State has scored 31 points or more in 3 of their last 5 games. UL Monroe's offense should light up the scoreboard in the Sun Belt. Monroe has underachieved on offense so far this year. The Warhawks have only scored on 65% of their red zone trips, and they have turned the ball over 13 times. They just posted 45 points on Coastal Carolina and they will score a lot in this conference. UL Monroe pushes the pace and I think they are likely to have the lead. That forces Texas State to keep the tempo going too. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Memphis v. Missouri UNDER 74.5 | 33-65 | Loss | -110 | 45 h 59 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers host the Memphis Tigers in a non-conference game on Saturday. Both of these teams play relatively quickly, at 45th and 21st in tempo. They are both good offenses as well, but this number is extreme. When adjusted for strength of schedule faced, Missouri ranks in the top 20 in the nation in rushing defense. Memphis is first in the nation in yards per carry, but the Tigers have feasted on terrible defenses on the ground. They won't be up against a weak defensive front this time. Missouri has done most of their work in the air, but winds of 20 mph on Saturday will make it very tough to throw. Games with a high total with strong winds have multiple very strong systems on the under. I would have passed on this game without the wind, but I'll take the under here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Penn State v. Indiana UNDER 61.5 | 33-28 | Win | 100 | 39 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This number is too high given the circumstances of this game. First of all, it is hard to say how Penn State will view this game. They have lost two straight games and their preseason hopes are now gone. How do they respond? I don't see that as a positive for the over. Indiana has time and time again played tight games against high quality Big Ten opponents, they just haven't been able to get over the hump. Allen is a defensive-minded coach, and I think his defense will be well-prepared for this big home game against Penn State. Though both teams are playing a little bit fast, they are only at 41st and 43rd in pace of play, so it is nothing extreme. The Penn State defense has been excellent this year too. Penn State is 21st in the nation in yards per play allowed. They have played a tough schedule as well, and this defense has looked very good even in losses to Ohio State and Michigan State. Indiana's offense hasn't been efficient. They are 93rd in the nation in yards per play. The Penn State offense doesn't have the same kind of explosive ability from the running back spot this year with Barkley gone. I've gone with an average of 5 weather forecasts for this game, and they are calling for 19 mph sustained winds during this game. High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Akron v. Kent State UNDER 54 | 24-23 | Win | 100 | 60 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Kent State Golden Flashes and the Akron Zips meet in a big rivalry game on Saturday in Kent. This one is for the Wagon Wheel trophy. Kent State and Akron are both very weak offensively. Kent State has allowed a ridiculous 29 sacks this year. That's worst in the country (130 teams). Akron has a good defensive line and they should be able to get in the backfield and put Kent State behind the chains here. The Akron offense ranks 119th in the country in yards per play. Akron is averaging only 3.36 yards per carry on the year. Kent State plays quickly, but they aren't efficient at all. Akron's offense severely lacks the big play potential. The Zips have only 6 plays of 30 yards or more all season. Kent State's defense isn't very good, but this Akron defense is very good. The Zips are 37th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Weather should be an issue here. An average of five forecasts in the Kent area shows temperatures in the upper 40's with winds around 15 mph guesting to 20 mph, and a 50% chance of showers during this game. That's a big plus for the under. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | NC State v. Clemson OVER 54.5 | Top | 7-41 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 19 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB Top Play Total of the WEEK* The Clemson Tigers offense is excellent with Trevor Lawrence at the helm. Lawrence is playing with a lot of confidence, and he has a lot of weapons around him. Clemson's coaching staff has talked about wanting to push the tempo even more than they are now. Clemson already ranks 34th in pace of play in the nation. They will push the pace here. North Carolina State has a very good quarterback in Ryan Finley. Finley is the best quarterback Clemson has faced so far this year. What is Clemson's weakness? Clearly, it is their secondary. The Tigers looked really bad in the secondary against Texas A&M earlier this year, and the NC State passing game should exploit this weakness. NC State's defense ranks 66th in yards per play allowed. The Wolfpack are 16th in scoring defense. What does this mean? They are due for some serious regression to the mean. This NC State defense isn't nearly as good as they have looked so far this year. Clemson should move the ball easily here. Both teams can exploit the other defenses weakness here. The pace will stay quick throughout. Take the over. TOP Total of the Week. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State UNDER 48 | 42-20 | Loss | -116 | 46 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather for this game is set to be a big problem for both offenses. The average forecast between 5 different forecasts I looked at here calls for 48 degrees with average winds of 26 mph and gusts above 30 mph. There is also a 40% chance of rain showers during this game. These conditions are about as drastic as you will see this time of the year, especially with those wind gusts. Neither team is efficient at running the football, and with these conditions they will have to run it much more often. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Western Michigan v. Central Michigan UNDER 55 | 35-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This one originally wouldn't have made my card, but with the weather forecast here I have to take the under. An average of 5 weather forecasts I researched came up with 21 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There is a 30% chance of snow during this game as well. Blindly taking unders with winds of 20mph or greater has hit at a rate higher than 60% in the past 10 years. This is a rivalry game where you would expect both teams to be very motivated, and in general that helps the under as well. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Maryland v. Iowa UNDER 52.5 | 0-23 | Win | 100 | 115 h 13 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes host the Maryland Terrapins on Saturday. Maryland is extremely one-dimensional on offense. Maryland has to be able to run the football or they can't move the ball. Maryland ranks 10th in the nation in yards per carry, but they haven't gone against many really good defenses against the run. That all changes when they play against Iowa on Saturday. Iowa is 5th in the nation in ypc allowed at only 2.69. The Hawkeyes are always strong in the front seven on defense, and that is the case again this year. The tempo for both teams points toward an under. Iowa ranks 105th out of 130 in terms of tempo. Maryland ranks 110th in tempo. What about how often they are running the ball? Maryland runs on 66.4% of their offensive plays. Iowa runs on 57% of their offensive plays. This will mean a lot of moving clock. The weather here could be a bonus. The current forecast calls for 15 mph winds with gusts to 20 mph during this one. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Illinois v. Wisconsin UNDER 58 | 20-49 | Loss | -109 | 68 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This is a game I considered passing on because of injuries on the Wisconsin defensive side of the ball, but this number is too with all factors considered. Wisconsin plays at an extremely slow tempo. The Badgers rank in the bottom ten in terms of pace of play. Illinois ranks is right around the average when it comes to tempo. The Illinois offense has been dreadful of late. They scored only 7 points last week against Purdue, and the Boilermakers have been only mediocre on defense this year. The weather forecast here pushes me over the top on playing this under. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts to 30 mph. There are some very strong angles on betting unders with heavy wind, and this is a high total for a Wisconsin game. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-20-18 | Buffalo v. Toledo UNDER 63 | 31-17 | Win | 100 | 35 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Toledo Rockets don't have the same kind of offensive talent they have had in recent seasons. They lost a star quarterback and running back in the last couple years. Toledo is only 48th in the nation in yards per play this year. Toledo has only 14 plays of 30 yards or more on the season thus far (that is 56th best in the country). Buffalo's defense has excelled at stopping the big plays too. Buffalo has allowed only 9 plays of 30 yards or more on the season. Buffalo's offense relies pretty heavily on Tyree Jackson and big plays through the air. Jackson is a really good quarterback, but winds of 20 mph and rain showers are forecast here. That's a clear negative for this Buffalo offense, and I think they'll have to be more conservative in this one. High totals with a lot of wind have some great long-term systems for under bettors. This is a key battle in the MAC- and one where both teams should be very motivated. That generally benefits the under as well. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-18-18 | Stanford v. Arizona State OVER 53 | 20-13 | Loss | -110 | 77 h 33 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Stanford Cardinal have previously been thought of as a great defensive team. A few years ago that was the case. This year they aren't good defensively. Stanford ranks 70th in the nation in yards per play, and they haven't played many great offenses. The Cardinal have also been very fortunate when it comes to red zone defense. Stanford has allowed a touchdown on only 40 percent of opponents drives into the red zone. That isn't going to continue all year long. Arizona State's offense is solid. Wilkins has done a nice job at quarterback for them, and Harry is an elite wide receiver. Arizona State's offensive line has been very good this year, and that helps against a Stanford defense that is aggressive rushing the passer. Stanford's offense has been more explosive this year. They already have 14 plays of 30 yards or more. Bryce Love will likely play at least some here, though he isn't 100 percent. The Cardinal now have a more efficient passing game, and the Sun Devils defense is weak against the pass. The over is 4-0 in Stanford's last 4 road games. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | 40-43 | Push | 0 | 65 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Sunday Night 100% System Play* The New England Patriots are 10-3-1 ATS in Bill Belichick's last 14 games when playing on more than a week of rest. New England has been a machine when playing at home as a small favorite too. They are a whopping 53-16 ATS with Tom Brady as their starting quarterback as a home favorite of 6.5 points or less. The Pats are 17-5 ATS in their last 22 at home as a touchdown favorite or less against a team with a 67% win percentage or higher. Patrick Mahomes is very good, but the Chiefs have been fortunate this year. Blake Bortles handed them the game last weekend. Don't expect Brady and the Pats to do the same thing here. This is a proud Patriots team playing on extra rest and with revenge from last year's beat down at home handed to them by Kansas City. The Chiefs defense is one of the three worst in the NFL. New England's defense is better than a year ago by a wide margin. Also key here is Tom Brady's weapons on offense are much better now. Julian Edelman and Josh Gordon make this receiving group much better. The Chiefs have been the worst team in the NFL at defending tight ends in the passing game. Rob Gronkowski should have a huge game here. Finally, the Patriots are a perfect 11-0 ATS in their last 11 home games as a favorite against a team with an ATS win percentage of higher than 70%. This one fits the system. Take New England. |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 42 | 21-0 | Win | 100 | 47 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Tennessee Titans host the Baltimore Ravens late Sunday afternoon in Nashville. Baltimore ranks first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Titans are 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Two very strong defenses here. Tennessee is running more than any other team in the NFL this year. They want to establish the run, but Baltimore has a really strong front seven. Mariota and the Titans passing attack haven't been consistent at all. Baltimore is 27th in yards per play on offense this year. Tennessee is 30th in yards per play. These are two offenses that have failed to show a consistent ability to move the ball. The weather here should play a role also. There is a 60 percent chance of rain and winds of 12-15 mph. That's plenty to make it harder for the passing attacks. More conservative play calling would help both of these defenses who are strong in the trenches. The under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings between these two. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-14-18 | Bears v. Dolphins UNDER 42 | 28-31 | Loss | -114 | 32 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Chicago Bears defense is elite. Their pass rush is going to give a bunch of teams trouble this year, and Miami's offensive line is in big trouble here. Miami's offensive line isn't very good to begin with, and now they are dealing with a severe shortage at the center position. Look for the Bears to get after Ryan Tannehill here. The Bears offense still has a lot to prove. They ran up a big number on the Bucs, but that's a terrible defense. Miami's defense is solid against the run, and Trubisky and the passing attack still have plenty to prove. Chicago's defense is third in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Dolphins have a gimmicky offense that is starting to get figured out by good defensive coordinators. Both teams play at a much slower pace than the average team in the NFL. This kind of slow paced game with two teams who are very inconsistent on offense makes the under have value. The under is 6-0 in the Bears last 6 following an ATS win. The under is 4-0 in the Bears last 4 following a win by 14 points or more. The under is 4-0 in Miami's last 4 vs. a team with a winning record. A 14-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Colorado v. USC OVER 55 | 20-31 | Loss | -110 | 124 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Colorado and USC are both moving relatively quickly on offense. USC's offense has improved as Daniels has gotten acclimated to this offense. He clearly has a lot of talent, and USC has some good skill position players around him. Colorado's Montez is a very good veteran quarterback. This USC defense is only 58th in the country in yards per play allowed. They give up too many big plays and that should be an issue here. Colorado's defense hasn't been tested by top notch offenses yet. USC should be able to get their offense going here. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Middle Tennessee State v. Florida International OVER 56 | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The MTSU Blue Raiders offense had trouble getting going early in the season. MTSU has a great quarterback in Brent Stockstill and with Ty Lee on the outside he has a very good wide receiver to get the ball to. I was very impressed with MTSU's offense last week. Marshall is an excellent defense (best in the conference), and MTSU put up 34 points and 420 yards on them. MTSU was shut down by Vanderbilt and Georgia in the early going, but they aren't going to be facing defenses of that caliber anytime soon. MTSU pushes the pace, and I see no reason to expect FIU to slow them down much here. FIU has been much better on offense than I expected them to be. James Morgan has fit in very well at quarterback. Morgan is averaging 9.79 yards per pass attempt. Him getting the ball up the field so much has really allowed this running game to have more success as well. FIU is 23rd in the nation in yards per play on offense. Conference USA is well known for its high scoring affairs. The totals move downward here doesn't make any sense to me. I see a game with quite a bit of tempo and two quarterbacks playing well. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Miami-FL v. Virginia UNDER 53 | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 123 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers have adopted a new style of offense this year. Bronco Mendenhall's team is running the ball early and often. That plays into the Miami defensive strength though. Miami is 7th in the nation allowing only 2.73 yards per carry, and their defensive line is stacked with talent. The Virginia offensive front isn't likely to be able to get much of a push here. Miami is running the ball on 61% of their plays this year. Perry has done a good job at quarterback now, but the offense has slowed down tempo-wise. We should see a bunch of running clock in this game, and both defenses have been better at stopping the run than the offenses have at running the ball. The matchups appear to favor the defense. I would expect a tight low scoring game. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-13-18 | West Virginia v. Iowa State +7 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 41 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Iowa State* What does Matt Campbell have to do to get some respect? Campbell's teams are 25-12 ATS as an underdog. Iowa State's biggest weakness over the years has been at the quarterback spot, but Brock Purdy was highly recruited and he was tremendous in their win at Oklahoma State as a big underdog last week. Purdy gives them a dual-threat quarterback, and that's something they haven't had in a long time. Iowa State has been missing explosiveness on offense, but Purdy gives them that big play threat. Defenses will have to account for that going forward. West Virginia hasn't beaten anyone of significance so far this year. The Mountaineers now walk into Ames, Iowa as a big favorite. This is a good West Virginia team, but I'm not ready to call them great. Iowa State has a terrific home field advantage, and this is a night game. West Virginia has played the 46th toughest schedule so far this year. What about Iowa State? They've played the 2nd toughest schedule. The statistics are skewed here because of the competition they have faced. West Virginia was favored by four at home against Iowa State last year, and now they are laying a touchdown on the road in their toughest test of the year yet. It doesn't make sense to me. I'll grab the underrated Cyclones here. Take Iowa State. |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Louisiana Tech v. UTSA UNDER 50 | Top | 31-3 | Win | 100 | 120 h 5 m | Show |
*5 Star NCAA FB TOP Total of the WEEK* The UTSA Roadrunners have the worst offense in college football. UTSA just won 20-3 against Rice, but they had only 178 yards of offense in that game. Their two touchdowns were on drives of 31 yards and 3 yards. Rice turned the ball over 4 times, and UTSA was handed their points in that one. UTSA is last in yards per play in the country. There are even clear signs of regression for their offense when it comes to scoring. UTSA has scored on 100% of their red zone trips so far this year. That can't continue. They are near the bottom in allowing sacks, so that puts them behind the chains often. The lack of explosive plays from UTSA is ridiculous. They have only 2 plays of 30 yards or more in six games! Louisiana Tech ranks 69th in the country in yards per play. They have been inconsistent this year. LA Tech has also been fortunate in that they have scored on 100% of their red zone trips this year. A sign of regression. LA Tech's defense has been good though. They are 47th in the nation in yards per play allowed. It's hard to imagine UTSA scoring very many at all here. UTSA has always been good defensively under Coach Wilson. UTSA is a very physical team and they allow only 3.45 yards per carry. I expect LA Tech to get the lead here and as they try to salt this one away later in the game, the UTSA defense should hold their own. Last year, LA Tech beat UTSA 20-6. I expect another defensive battle here. Take the under. TOP Play. CFB TOP Total of the Week |
|||||||
10-13-18 | UL-Monroe v. Coastal Carolina OVER 66 | 45-20 | Loss | -115 | 39 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The UL Monroe Warhawks and the Coastal Carolina Chanticleers have two of the bottom ten defenses in the nation. UL Monroe's offense has underachieved so far this year, but I expect them to put up some big numbers in Sun Belt action. UL Monroe has scored in the red zone only 58.33% of the time this year. That can't continue long term. That's a number that is due for some positive regression. This team has quite a few weapons and they have a speed advantage over the Coastal Carolina defense. Coastal Carolina's offense has been much more efficient this year. Joe Moglia being back has really changed things for this team. The triple option has been really effective, and they are up against a terrible ULM defense here. ULM is 128th in the nation out of 130 teams in yards per play allowed this year. They are giving up 7.41 yards per play. Coastal Carolina's defense is second worst in the nation allowing 6.81 yards per carry on the season. Both of these defenses give up explosive plays by the bunches. Look for a lot of long plays from scrimmage here. The over is 20-6 in ULM's last 26 conference games. The over is 12-5 in Coastal's last 17 games. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Southern Miss v. North Texas UNDER 55.5 | 7-30 | Win | 100 | 36 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Denton, Texas isn't expected to be good at all for this game. A temperature in the mid 60's with winds of 15 mph and gusts to 20 mph and heavy rain are forecast for Saturday. That's some miserable weather for two teams that are reliant on the passing game. While the under is always helped by wind and rain, it is much more of a benefit when you catch a spot where teams are normally passing teams and they must try to get something going on the ground. That's the spot here. Both of these defenses have been better this year. Despite playing a weak schedule, Southern Miss is 114th in the nation in yards per carry, so if they have to run the ball it isn't likely to go very well for them. North Texas lost their star in Wilson from the backfield last year. The Mean Green are 94th in the nation in yards per carry. The poor weather would at least somewhat neutralize the best player on the field (Mason Fine QB for North Texas) as well. The sharp money is clearly on the under here, and I fully agree. This line is about where it should be without any weather issues. There are clear weather issues in this one- and with two teams reliant on throwing it around, that makes a big difference. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-13-18 | Duke +3 v. Georgia Tech | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Duke* The Duke Blue Devils looked bad in their last game against Virginia Tech, but they had a bye week to get things sorted out, and David Cutcliffe is one of the best coaches in the country. Cutcliffe's teams have been great at stopping the triple option, and with a bye week they have even more time to prepare for the triple option. Daniel Jones looked rusty in his first game back, but he's a good quarterback and this GA Tech secondary is a clear weakness. I think Duke can have a lot of success against this Tech secondary. Duke is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games against GA Tech. They have the strong defensive front needed against a run heavy team like GA Tech. Their linebackers are top 10 in the country. Grab the points. Take Duke. |
|||||||
10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants UNDER 45 | 34-13 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 3 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Two offenses who have struggled quite a bit this season. New York is 20th in the NFL in yards per play. Philadelphia is all the way down at 25th in yards per play. The Eagles defense is a strong unit, and I think the Giants defense will improve as well. Carson Wentz isn't himself yet, and Eli Manning just isn't a very good quarterback at this stage in his career. The pace of play is key here. New York has played at the second slowest tempo of any team in the NFL. Philadelphia ranks in the bottom ten in tempo as well. Weather could play a major role in this game. The current forecast calls for rain which is heavy at times and winds of 10-15 mph. That's a huge plus for the under. The under is 5-1 in the Giants last 6 home games. Take the under here. |
|||||||
10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +10 | 35-9 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Arkansas State* The Appalachian State Mountaineers are clearly a very good team. Appalachian State played Penn State very tough in the first game of the season. Since, they have blown out three opponents. The problem is we have learned very little about them since those opponents were Charlotte, South Alabama, and Gardner-Webb. None of those teams are any good. I had Arkansas State power rated as a slightly better team than Appalachian State in the preseason. The game of the year line on this one was a pick'em. A 10 point adjustment? That's really steep. Arkansas State has been one of the most consistent programs in the Sun Belt under Blake Anderson's lead. The Red Wolves are a whopping 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 Sun Belt games. Arkansas State is good on extra rest too. They are 6-1 ATS in their last 7 following a bye week. This is a midweek game, but they clearly had extra prep time here. The Arkansas State defense has struggled against the run so far this year, but those numbers are skewed thanks to playing Alabama. They have also played UNLV and GA Southern, who are very good rushing teams. Appalachian State will be able to run the ball here, but I think Arkansas State's offense will have success as well. Hansen is a veteran quarterback for the Red Wolves, and he has some great wide receivers on the outside. Appalachian State's pass rush hasn't been very good this year either. Appalachian State is a good team, but I think Arkansas State has been discounted too quickly here. This is a matchup of Sun Belt titans, and I'll grab this many points with the home team. Take Arkansas State. |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Giants v. Panthers -6 | 31-33 | Loss | -100 | 34 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Super System Play* The Carolina Panthers have been tremendous running the football so far this year. Christian McCaffrey appears to be coming into his own for the Panthers, and Cam Newton is always a great rushing option as well. The Panthers offensive front is better this year. The Giants are 26th in the NFL when it comes to stopping the run. They don't have many good run stuffers on this defensive unit. The Giants are likely to get a bunch of running plays sent at them this week, and I can't see them faring very well here. Carolina is coming off a bye week. Teams coming off a bye week and playing in a non-division game in the first 8 weeks of the season are 58.5% ATS in the last 15 years in the NFL. Carolina fits that system this weekend. I certainly don't trust Eli Manning to be able to trade scores with Newton and the Panthers. Take Carolina. |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 34 h 48 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on the Buffalo Bills* The Buffalo Bills were blown out in Green Bay last weekend, but their defense has shown me a lot in recent weeks. Buffalo was absolutely blown out in week one by Baltimore, but since then this team has been very competitive. Buffalo has played the toughest schedule in the NFL so far this year, so their numbers are skewed to the negative a bit right now. Buffalo still ranks number nine in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Titans are coming off three straight wins by a field goal. Last week they won in overtime against the Eagles. They have two straight wins over contending teams, and they are feeling good about themselves as they go to Buffalo to take on the Bills. This is the type of game that would be easy to overlook. Tennessee's offense ranks 28th in yards per play, so they aren't likely to be able to do too much on offense here. With a posted total set this low, grabbing this many points is more valuable. Tennessee is 9-26-3 ATS in their last 38 games vs. a team with a losing record. Buffalo is tricky team to face on their home field, and this is a bad spot for the Titans. Take Buffalo. |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Ravens v. Browns UNDER 45.5 | 9-12 | Win | 100 | 34 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Baltimore Ravens defense has been the best in the NFL so far this year. Baltimore really impressed me on defense last weekend in their win at Pittsburgh. The Ravens are balanced on defense, and there is no real weakness to attack. The Ravens are first in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Cleveland gave up a ton of points last weekend, but the Browns defense is still a very solid unit. The Browns turnovers and some terrible calls by the refs inflated Oakland's point total last weekend some. Look at how well the Browns defended New Orleans in the Superdome and that says a lot. Cleveland ranks 10th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The AFC North has consistently been a very good division for the under. How good? The under is a whopping 57-33 (63.3%) in an AFC North game with a total of 41 points or higher since 2004. Both of these offenses aren't very explosive, and I see a defensive battle here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Jaguars +3 v. Chiefs | 14-30 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 road games. Jacksonville was the top pass defense in the NFL last year. They will once again be one of the top two or three in the league this year. Patrick Mahomes and this Kansas City offense has been great this year, but this is by far the best defense they have played yet. It's a huge test for them. What is Jacksonville going to want to do in this game? The Jags will run the football. Kansas City is dead last in the NFL allowing 5.7 yards per carry so far this year. Look for the Jaguars to have a lot of success on the ground. The weather may play a role here with some rain in the area and a bit of wind. That definitely would help the Jaguars with the stronger defense and better running game. I have to take a great defense getting points against a terrible defense. Mahomes is a really good player, but this is a big test. I think Jacksonville has a good chance of winning outright here. Take Jacksonville. |
|||||||
10-07-18 | Wyoming +3 v. Hawaii | 13-17 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Wyoming* The Hawaii football team has been a big surprise so far this year. They have benefited from a very weak schedule though. Hawaii has yet to play a really solid defense. Wyoming will be one of the best defenses in the Mountain West this year. Hawaii is in a tough situational spot as well. They are coming off a 5 overtime win at San Jose State last week. While they get to back home here, they are just 5-15 ATS in their last 20 games at home. Wyoming will look to run the ball consistently in this one, and Hawaii hasn't been very good on the defensive front this year. The spot is a bad one for Hawaii and Wyoming should come in hungry after getting blown out by Boise State last week. Take Wyoming. |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Auburn v. Mississippi State UNDER 46 | 9-23 | Win | 100 | 122 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Auburn Tigers and Mississippi State defenses have been dominating this year. Both are extremely strong on the defensive front. What's the weakness of these offenses? The offensive line. That should make both quarterbacks uncomfortable, and lead to a lot of negative plays. Both of these offenses struggle when they get behind the sticks. Auburn's offense is only averaging 5.42 yards per play, which is 91st best in the country. Their offensive line has been a huge problem this year. Mississippi State is reliant on the run game, and Auburn's defense is 10th in the country allowing only 2.75 yards per carry. A defensive battle. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M UNDER 54 | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 122 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Texas A&M Aggies host the Kentucky Wildcats in a big SEC showdown on Saturday night. Kentucky's defense ranks 14th best in the nation allowing only 4.46 yards per play. Kentucky is 5th in pass defense (yards per play allowed). Kentucky will slow the tempo down as much as possible. They rank 118th in tempo in the country of 130. Texas A&M also moves slowly at 106th in the country in tempo. The Aggies defense is better than their numbers would indicate. Alabama racked up a bunch of yards on this team. With both teams preferring to run, the clock should keep moving here. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-06-18 | UL-Monroe v. Ole Miss OVER 69.5 | 21-70 | Win | 100 | 121 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels and the ULM Warhawks both move quickly. They both rank in the top 40 in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss takes a lot of deep shots in the passing game. They have some tremendous wide receivers who will have a big advantage in this game. Ole Miss has a whopping 26 plays of 30 yards or more in only five games so far this year. The Rebels will get a bunch of explosive plays against this weak ULM defense. ULM ranks 116th out of 130 teams in the country in yards per play allowed. The Ole Miss defense is very weak as well. The Rebels rank 102nd in yards per play allowed, and they are allowing 38 points per game this season. ULM's offense has underachieved some this year, and I think we'll see them put up plenty of points here. Take the over. |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Iowa v. Minnesota UNDER 43 | 48-31 | Loss | -105 | 37 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Iowa Hawkeyes defense has been tremendous this year. Iowa ranks 7th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They are giving up only 2.67 ypc (8th best in country). Iowa's offense sits at 72nd in the country in yards per play. Iowa is only 89th in yards per carry offensively this year. Minnesota ranks 120th in the nation in yards per play. The Golden Gophers are averaging only 3.63 yards per carry. They have suffered some serious injury problems at the running back spot. This Minnesota team doesn't have enough playmakers on offense to score much on good defense, and this is the best defense they have played yet by a large margin. Both of these teams run the ball about 61% of the time on offense. Both teams rank among the 25 slowest teams in the country in terms of tempo. There will be a lot of running the ball and playing slowly, which will eat away at the clock here. Both of the last two years this matchup has stayed well under the posted total. Winds of 10-12 mph are in forecast and that helps the under a bit as well. It's a low number, but it's low for a reason. Take the under. |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Oklahoma v. Texas +7.5 | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 42 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Texas* The Texas Longhorns have a ton of talent, and Tom Herman has been tremendous in the underdog role. Herman is 11-1 ATS in his last 12 games as an underdog. He has won 8 of them outright. Oklahoma is a very good team, but they haven't been tested by a really good team yet. The Sooners are only 46th in yards per play allowed so far this year despite the fact that they have yet to play a good offense. Texas isn't a great offense, but they have shown signs of improvement lately. They have enough skill position talent to stay in this one. The Longhorns defense is a very good unit, and Oklahoma should have a tougher time moving the ball than they have had in most of their games this season. Rodney Anderson being out hurts Oklahoma quite a bit. The last four games between these two in this rivalry have been decided by seven points or less. Take Texas. |
|||||||
10-06-18 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan UNDER 51.5 | 34-24 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 54 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Central Michigan offense is a mess this year. The Chippewas are 128th in the country in yards per play on offense. They have a weak offensive line and a lack of playmakers at the skill positions on offense. Central Michigan has only 8 plays of 20 yards or more all season. Buffalo has a good quarterback in Tyree Jackson, but the Bulls have a very weak offensive line and a subpar rushing attack. As bad as the Central Michigan offense is, the defense has been great. They are 26th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Their strong defensive line has a big edge in this game. Central Michigan should be able to get heat on Jackson in this game. Buffalo is 32nd in the nation in yards per play allowed. The Bulls have a good pass rush and are a well-balanced defense. The weather could play a role here. A 60% chance of rain is in the forecast and 10 mph winds. Take the under. |
|||||||
09-30-18 | Dolphins v. Patriots -6.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 105 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Patriots* The Miami Dolphins aren't as good as their record would indicate. The New England Patriots aren't as bad as they have looked either. Miami has been outgained by a large margin in two of their three wins. The Dolphins were by 105 yards against the Jets. They were outgained by 62 yards against the Raiders. They outgained the Titans by only six yards in week one. The Patriots have been questionable early in the season before and they have always responded in a big way. I'm not sure this team is quite as good as some of those other teams, but this team is really well coached and they need to get back on track. I think they will be ready for this one. How has Bill Belichick done while on an ATS losing streak of 1-3 games? In games where they are laying less than 7 (or are an underdog) their ATS record is a whopping 42-11-3 ATS. These Patriots have been extremely resilient. The Dolphins are 0-6 ATS in their last 6 games in New England. New England laying this short of a number in a bounce back spot is something I have to play. Take New England. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | BYU v. Washington UNDER 46.5 | 7-35 | Win | 100 | 21 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Washington Huskies and the BYU Cougars play a similar style of football. Both are very physical teams, and both prefer to run the football and use up the clock. There should be a lot of running clock in this one, and the defenses are the strengths of both teams. BYU is 106th out of 130 in the nation in tempo. Washington is 101st in tempo. Both defenses have been elite at not giving up big plays this year. BYU has only allowed 4 plays of 30 yards or more in four contests. Washington has only allowed a single play of 30 yards or more in four contests. BYU wants to establish the run with Squally Canada, but Washington will likely feel good enough about their pass defense to commit a little extra help in the box here. Jake Browning has regressed at quarterback, and this BYU defense should do a good job holding their own on the defensive line. The under is 6-0 in BYU's last 6 vs. a Pac 12 opponent. The under is 5-0 in BYU's last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 September games. The under is 6-0 in Washington's last 6 September games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 after allowing less than 275 yards last game. A 27-0 angle. Take the under. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 51.5 | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 122 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish offense will be much better with Book at quarterback now. Wimbush made too many mistakes and was just very inconsistent. This Notre Dame team is going to push the pace. Book talk about how much the coaching staff wanted him to push the pace last week, and he followed the directions well. Notre Dame ranks 21st in the nation in tempo. Stanford is a much slower paced team, but they are an offense that has big play capability. The Cardinal have a much better passing attack than they have had in most years, and that gives them balance. This game finished 38-20 last year, and I see both offenses as better than last year. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Louisiana Tech +7.5 v. North Texas | 29-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on LA Tech* Skip Holtz is a very impressive 45-23-1 ATS in his career as an underdog. Holtz has done a great job in the underdog role, and we are catching more than a touchdown here. I like this North Texas team, but they are laying more than a touchdown against a Louisiana Tech program that has been the most consistent in Conference USA the last few years. North Texas has gotten some good breaks so far this year. The Mean Green are 12th in the nation in points per game so far this season. They are only 53rd in yards per play on offense. Their offense is much more one dimensional this year without Wilson in the backfield. North Texas also has a ridiculous plus nine turnover margin already this year. They won't be able to keep that pace up in the long run. Louisiana Tech has a veteran team. The Bulldogs outgained LSU on the road last week. They have allowed only 3 plays of 30 yards or more this year, and North Texas often relies on the big play. This one should go down to the wire. Take Louisiana Tech. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Virginia Tech v. Duke -4 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Duke* The Virginia Tech Hokies are coming off a shocking loss to Old Dominion. They allowed more than 600 yards in that game. Virginia Tech definitely isn't that bad, and in a normal situation I might look to play on that team in a bounce back spot. I don't consider this a normal spot. Virginia Tech not only lost the game, but they lost two very key players due to injury in that game. Josh Jackson is out with an injury at quarterback and Ryan Willis takes over. Willis was a starter at QB for Kansas for a while, and he struggled with turnover problems. Additionally, Virginia Tech's best pass rusher, Trevon Hill, was dismissed from the team this week. That's a big loss for a defense already struggling badly against the pass. Virginia Tech has beaten Duke the last two years. Duke played an FCS school last week, and I'm sure a lot of preparation was put into this game. David Cutcliffe gives Duke the coaching edge, and this line has been bet down during the week. Duke has played the much tougher schedule thus far. I'll lay the short number. Take Duke. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | UTEP v. UTSA UNDER 47.5 | 21-30 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* UTSA is second to last in the nation in yards per play so far this year. UTEP is 8th worst out of 130 teams. These are two really bad offenses. UTSA has been strong defensively for the past few years, and I expect them to be very good against the pass this year. UTEP doesn't have much of a running game. The UTEP defense is improved from last year, and they aren't giving up as many big plays thus far. UTEP ranks 123rd out of 130 teams in the nation in tempo. Look for an ugly low scoring contest. Take the under. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Florida v. Mississippi State UNDER 52.5 | 13-6 | Win | 100 | 121 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is very inconsistent, but their defense is very good. The Bulldogs actually played pretty well on defense last week against Kentucky. The strength of this Bulldogs defense is their defensive front. Florida is pretty reliant on the running game, and they are unlikely to have much success there. Both of these teams are playing at a slower pace than average, and these are two strong defenses. The Florida offense hasn't been nearly as good as their points per game look. They have benefited from a bunch of short fields and special teams touchdowns. Take the under here. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Nevada v. Air Force OVER 66 | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Air Force Falcons offense hasn't been up to par so far this year, but I expect them to get their ground game going as they almost always do. They have multiple solid options at quarterback. Nevada has a great quarterback for their pass heavy system in Ty Gangi. I expect Nevada to put up some big numbers in MWC play this year. Nevada is averaging an impressive 6.54 yards per play this year, and they are 17th quickest in the country in terms of tempo. Nevada is 87th in yards per play allowed and Air Force is 97th. When these teams met last year, Air Force won 45-42. It was no fluke that it was really high scoring either. Air Force had 591 yards offense and Nevada had 424 yards. I don't see any reason to expect things to change in this year's matchup. A back and forth high scoring contest. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | South Alabama v. Appalachian State OVER 55.5 | 7-52 | Win | 100 | 86 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense has been a really nice surprise this year. With Thomas at quarterback, they seem to have found a guy who knows the system really well and can make the right decisions. Moore gives this team a really good running back with the ability to break one at any time. Appalachian State is 6th in the nation in yards per play this year. This offense showed what they can do in that impressive season opener against Penn State. South Alabama has decided to pick up the tempo this year. The Jaguars rank 42nd in the nation in tempo. They have gotten much better than expected quarterback play from Evan Orth. He threw for 360 yards on just 32 pass attempts against Memphis last week. The South Alabama defense is weak. They have allowed a bunch of big plays this year. South Alabama has given up 28 plays of 20 yards or more in the early going this year. They rank 104th in the nation in yards per play allowed. This number has been beaten down too far. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-29-18 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut OVER 58 | 49-7 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* It's hard to overstate how bad this UConn defense has been. UConn is dead last in the nation in every key defensive statistic. UConn is allowing a ridiculous 9.22 yards per play. They are allowing 7.97 yards per carry, which is easily worst in the nation. Cincinnati's defense is solid, but I think their defensive numbers look better than they truly are right now for a couple key reasons. They played one game (against Miami OH) in a driving rainstorm with 20mph. That makes the job a lot easier for the defense. Second, they played an Alabama A&M team that is awful. The Cincinnati offense has gotten better week by week, and they should move easily against UConn as everyone else has. UConn hasn't allowed less than 49 points in a game this year and that includes a game against Rhode Island (FCS school). David Pindell is now probable to play here, and the UConn offense is good enough that they should contribute enough here. This number has gotten too low. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-27-18 | Vikings +7.5 v. Rams | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The LA Rams are a really good team, but this is too many points with the Vikings for me to pass up. The Vikings are 19-9 ATS in Mike Zimmer's 28 games as an underdog. Zimmer is a really good coach, and his Minnesota team is coming off an embarrassing performance last weekend. In the NFL, betting on a team after a blowout ATS loss has been a great long-term trend. It's even stronger when the team you are backing is a quality team. The Rams have some major secondary injuries. Aqib Talib is out for this game. Marcus Peters is a gametime decision and won't be 100% in this game even if he plays. The Vikings still have a top three defense in the NFL, and they are catching 7.5 points here in a bounce back spot. Minnesota is 23-9 ATS in their last 32 following a straight up loss. Grab the points here. Take Minnesota. |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Patriots v. Lions OVER 51.5 | 10-26 | Loss | -106 | 115 h 21 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The New England Patriots offense should have little trouble moving the ball and scoring on this Detroit Lions defense. The Lions defense isn't good to start with, and the guess from most is that Darius Slay, their top corner, is unlikely to play this Sunday night. He suffered a head injury last weekend, and most players with similar injuries have missed at least one game. The Lions don't have any depth in the secondary, and the Patriots can take advantage. On the other side, Blake Bortles just carved up this Patriots secondary. Matt Stafford has been good on the turf, and I think he'll find a lot of open receivers in this one. New England has shown defensive weakness in the past year, and a team like Detroit that airs it out often should be able to move the ball on this unit. The over is 8-2 in the Lions last 10 home games. The over is 5-1 in the Lions last 6 after a loss. Look for a lot of big plays and a high scoring contest. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-23-18 | Broncos v. Ravens -5 | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 94 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens were down 21-0 in no time last Thursday against the Bengals. I consider John Harbaugh one of the better coaches in the NFL. Harbaugh has extra time to get his team ready for this one, and I'll be surprised if they don't play much better here. In the NFL, teams who have had more than 8 days off are hitting at 55.3% ATS since 2003. The extra rest clearly makes a difference. The Broncos are very fortunate to be 2-0 on the season, and that has them overvalued coming into this game. Denver won on a late comeback against a poor Seattle team at home. They were then badly outplayed at home for the majority of the game against the Raiders. Denver is 1-9 ATS in their last 10 road games. Vance Joseph hasn't impressed me as a head coach thus far, and he has only covered 4 games as a head coach. The Broncos are traveling east to play an early game against a pumped up Baltimore team with something to prove. The Ravens have a big coaching edge and the extra rest. Take Baltimore. |
|||||||
09-23-18 | 49ers +7 v. Chiefs | 27-38 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 19 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on San Francisco* The Kansas City Chiefs would have been favored by no more than 3 points in this game just two weeks ago. To see a move of this magnitude in two weeks time in the NFL is fairly rare. It is extremely rare when the opposing team has actually played pretty well so far this year. San Francisco is averaging 5.6 yards per play on offense and giving up 5.3 on defense. They played a tight game against the Vikings who are an excellent team, and that was a road contest. They then built a big lead before holding on to a win at home against the Lions. They were sloppy late and many of the players have said that is a point of emphasis this week to to be sharp for the whole contest and not have lapses. Patrick Mahomes has been amazing in his first two games in the NFL. There's nothing negative I can say about Mahomes here. The Kansas City offense is tremendous, and they should score quite a few points here. San Francisco should score quite a few too though. The Chiefs are second to last in yards per play allowed so far this year at 6.9. This Chiefs defense just isn't any good. It's tough to lay a lot of points with a bad defense, especially with Andy Reid as your head coach. Reid is known for being conservative when in the lead. Interesting trend- teams who played their first two games on the road and come back home for their home opener in week 3 are 9-26-2 ATS since 2003. The Chiefs are in that spot here. Too much line value here to pass up. Take San Francisco. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Arizona State v. Washington UNDER 51.5 | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 43 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Late Night BAILOUT* Arizona State is 97th in the nation in yards per carry so far this year. They haven't been able to establish anything on the ground, and I don't see that changing here. The Sun Devils offensive line should be in for a long night against the Washington defensive front here. Washington is loaded with top end talent on the defensive line. Manny Wilkins isn't consistent at the quarterback spot. The Sun Devils didn't even get a first down in the second half until there was about 3 minutes left against San Diego State last week. They face an even better defense here. Washington's offense hasn't been clicking all that well this year. Jake Browning has been out of sync and the Huskies lack big playmakers on the outside. Arizona State's defense is much improved this year with Herm Edwards and Danny Gonzales here running the 3-3-5. I see Washington getting a safe lead here and then running the ball consistently and burning up the clock. Petersen's teams have a history of being very conservative with big leads in the second half. The under is 5-0 in Washington's last 5 September games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 after allowing less than 275 yards in their last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 13-0 angle. Take the under here. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Michigan State v. Indiana UNDER 48.5 | 35-21 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Michigan State Spartans defense let them down in the second half against Arizona State. The Sun Devils put together two long drives to win in the fourth quarter. Michigan State has had two weeks to get ready for this game, and I expect a much better defensive performance from a team coached by Mark Dantonio. Michigan State ranks 120th in the nation, so they will be slowing things down a lot here. Indiana was top five in the nation in tempo last year, but they are down to an averaged paced tempo this year. Indiana has a strong defensive line, and Michigan State is banged up on the offensive front. LJ Scott is questionable for this game as well, and without him Michigan State is far less potent on offense. Both Michigan State and Indiana's offenses have been slightly worse than the average offense in the country. Last year's meeting was 17-9 and an epic defensive struggle. The year before that they went into overtime at 21-21 (it was 7-0 at halftime). These teams have a history of low scoring games against each other. Take the under. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Rice v. Southern Miss OVER 53 | 22-40 | Win | 100 | 40 h 51 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles had a week off after a cancellation due to Hurricane Florence. Their offense gets a boost as Kwadra Griggs is eligible to return at quarterback here. Since Jack Abraham has played so well at QB, Griggs will have to share time with him. Southern Miss' offense will go up against one of the worst defenses in the country in the Rice Owls. Rice is allowing 6.01 yards per carry. Their secondary might be even worse though. They are giving up a whopping 10.0 yards per pass completion. Rice has already allowed 13 plays of 30 yards or more in just three games. The Rice offense is better than last year. The Owls are a respectable 83rd in the country in yards per play. They have an improved backfield and I think they can break some big gainers in the run game here. The last two years the score has been 44-28 Southern Miss and 43-34 Southern Miss when these two teams met. Southern Miss put up more than 500 yards of offense last year. This total has been bet down, and I'll gladly take the over at this low number with a questionable Southern Miss defense and a terrible Rice defense. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | UNLV +7.5 v. Arkansas State | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 40 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on UNLV* Weeks 4 and 5 have been great for road underdogs long-term in college football. UNLV is a program on the rise. The Runnin' Rebels can really run the football. The Rebels have a backfield full of extremely talented runners (including their QB), and it is tough for the defense to slow them down. USC allowed a whopping 7.16 ypc again this UNLV rushing attack. Arkansas State is coming off a road win at Tulsa, but Tulsa isn't a team that has much firepower anymore. The Red Wolves of Arkansas State are a very pass heavy team, and that could hurt them here. The forecast in Jonesboro calls for winds and some rain in this game. Who does that help? The team that runs the ball nearly 75% of the time (UNLV). Arkansas State lost their top two defensive linemen from last year. The Red Wolves are unlikely to be able to stop UNLV on the ground. This has been a good time for road underdogs, and taking underdogs in windy games has been a really strong trend in the long term. UNLV is 6-1 ATS in road contests under Tony Sanchez. This team is improving quite a bit, and I'll take the points here. Take UNLV. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Coastal Carolina +3.5 v. UL-Lafayette | 30-28 | Win | 100 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Coastal Carolina* The Coastal Carolina Chanticleers running game has been great so far this year. They are averaging 5.99 yards per carry, which is good for 12th best in the country thus far. Coastal Carolina goes up against a UL Lafayette defense that is allowing 5.76 yards per carry thus far. Even Grambling was able to run the ball on them pretty well earlier this year. Coastal Carolina's ability to control the ball and hold a big time of possession edge should help them have the upper hand here. Coastal Carolina is 20th in the nation in yards per play overall, and they have gotten quality play so far this year at quarterback. I think this team is much better with Joe Moglia coaching them. UL Lafayette doesn't have much of a home field advantage, and this is a team going through many scheme changes. The fact that they have only gotten to play one quality team so far this year hurts them as well. Take Coastal Carolina. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | South Carolina v. Vanderbilt OVER 51 | 37-14 | Push | 0 | 117 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores have a much improved passing attack. Vanderbilt gained 420 yards against Notre Dame last week, and the Commodores just blew all sorts of chances to score in the red zone. They should have won that game. South Carolina is playing much faster this year. The Gamecocks rank 29th in the country in tempo so far this season. With Samuel healthy again, Jake Bentley has an elite weapon to get the ball to and that should make a big difference. Last year, both of these teams were worse on offense and played slower and their meeting was a 34-27 South Carolina win. Maybe Vanderbilt's defense is a little better this year, but I'm not convinced it is as good as it looks on paper so far this year. Take the over. |
|||||||
09-22-18 | Northern Illinois v. Florida State UNDER 45 | 19-37 | Loss | -112 | 24 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Which team is dead last in the nation in yards per play so far this year? It's the Northern Illinois Huskies. This Northern Illinois offense wants to rely on the run. They are running the ball more than 61% of the time this year. They just aren't any good at running the football though. The strength of the Florida State defense is their run defense. Florida State ranks 34th in the country, allowing only 3.31 yards per carry on the year thus far. Florida State's offensive line is a mess right now. It's about as bad of an offensive line as any Power 5 conference has. What's the strength of the Northern Illinois defense? It's clearly their defensive line led by Sutton Smith. Smith is going to be in the Florida State backfield early and often in this one. This projects as a 20-13 type of game. Take the under. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.