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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-18-17 | Syracuse v. Louisville UNDER 74 | 10-56 | Win | 100 | 63 h 47 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Totals System SMASHER* I would not have played the under here normally, but the weather makes me do it because of the extremely strong angle backing the under. Louisville is expected to be 53 degrees with 25 mph winds and 30-35 mph gusts during this game. There is a 70% chance of rain. That's downright brutal conditions, and it should change this game. Syracuse plays very fast on offense. Still, they actually have been less efficient than I expected this year. The Orange rank about 40th in most pass efficiency metrics. They aren't in the top 75 in the country in rushing efficiency. They'll need that running game more than normal with conditions like this. Louisville's pass defense has been terrible this year, but adjusted for strength of schedule this Louisville defense ranks top 20 against the run. Louisville has a dynamic offense, but the Cardinals are playing at the 62nd fastest tempo of any team in the country, meaning they aren't pushing the issue. This is an extremely high number. Here's a great system that fits this game: In a game in week 11-13 with a total of 56 points or higher and the home team has a win percentage of 40% or better- with wind of 10 mph or higher the under is a whopping 81-35 in the last 116 contests. That's 70% unders. Take the under here. |
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11-18-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia Southern UNDER 47 | 0-52 | Loss | -110 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is great at making games low scoring. The Jaguars defense is one of the best in the Sun Belt. They have been particularly good when it comes to stopping the run. Georgia Southern ranks in the bottom ten in the country in tempo. They are running the triple option, so every possession takes a lot of time off the clock. The meeting between these two last year was 24-9. A game in the 30's here shouldn't be a surprise either. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | Texas State v. Arkansas State UNDER 59 | 12-30 | Win | 100 | 44 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and Arkansas State Red Wolves meet in Jonesboro on Saturday. The forecast for this one calls for 20-25 mph sustained winds during this game. Arkansas State is very reliant on their passing game. They air it out 57% of the time on offense. That is normally how they would beat Texas State, because Texas State's secondary is weak. However, in those winds it will be hard to throw the ball. Both teams will fall back and run the ball more often, and both offensive lines are weak. Texas State and Arkansas State both rank in the bottom five in the country in rushing offense efficiency. Both defenses are pretty good against the run. In a game that should feature more running, with a high total and a rolling clock, I'm going to take the under. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | Arizona State v. Oregon State OVER 59 | 40-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon State Beavers defense has been terrible all year. Arizona State has been solid in the passing game in recent weeks. Arizona State has scored 37 points or more five times this year. They have 81 points in the last two games alone. Oregon State's rushing game has been pretty good this year. The Beavers should be able to run for a lot here. Arizona State ranks in the bottom five in the country in yards per carry allowed when adjusted for strength of schedule. Overall, Arizona State is allowing 5.30 yards per carry on the year. Arizona State's tempo has been faster in recent weeks, and Todd Graham has talked about wanting the team to continue to play very quick. Both teams should score quite a few here. Take the over. |
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11-18-17 | Iowa State v. Baylor UNDER 53 | 23-13 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather in Waco on Saturday calls for sustained winds of 25 mph with gusts of 35 to 40 mph. That kind of wind is really hard to throw a football in, especially if you are looking to go downfield at all. That makes the offenses game plan a lot more vanilla, and both of these defenses are better against the run than the pass. Iowa State isn't sure who is starting at quarterback this week since Kempt went down with an injury last week. The Cyclones have been good throwing the ball this year, but they have struggled badly running the football. The sharp money is on the under in a big way here. There have been multiple steam moves on the under. I agree. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | Rutgers v. Indiana UNDER 49.5 | 0-41 | Win | 100 | 59 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Indiana Hoosiers defense has improved an amazing amount over the last couple years. The defense has become the strength of this team under Coach Allen. In the past it was the clear weakness of Indiana's football program. Indiana now has a top 20 defense against the run when adjusted for strength of schedule. The Hoosiers are top 30 against the pass. This Rutgers offense is as bad as you'll see in the Big Ten. Rutgers wouldn't be likely to score many at all here in normal conditions. With a forecast of 20 mph winds and 60% chance of showers, this game should be changed quite a bit by the weather. Indiana likes to throw the ball around, and they are pretty good through the air. With wind like that, I expect Indiana to be more conservative. Especially against a Rutgers offense that can't do much of anything. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | Michigan v. Wisconsin UNDER 43 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 117 h 43 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Play Under* The Michigan Wolverines and Wisconsin Bagders meet on Saturday in a huge Big Ten clash. Both of these teams like to run the football consistently. That plays to the strength of these defenses. Look for a bunch of running plays and a very slow pace between two teams who are extremely deliberate in their offensive styles. Also, the early weather forecast here calls for extremely strong winds and cold temperatures for this game. Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years Take the under big. *This number is moving down as people see the weather report. I would play this for a top play down to 39 points, and four 4 stars below that. Thank you*Â |
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11-18-17 | Minnesota v. Northwestern UNDER 46 | 0-39 | Win | 100 | 105 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The long term forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph here and gusts of 30 mph during the game. That's some intense wind that really changes the game. Both of these offenses have struggled for much of the season. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. Add in the weather factor, and I have to take the under. Games with 10 mph wind or higher and a temperature of 54 degrees or lower in the last 3 weeks of the regular season are 156 unders and 88 overs (63.9%) unders in the past 10 years. This one easily fits the criteria with a 45 degree temperature and 22 mph winds. Look for both teams to run more than normal in a low scoring battle here. Take the under. |
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11-18-17 | SMU v. Memphis UNDER 76 | 45-66 | Loss | -115 | 59 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Memphis Tigers and SMU Mustangs are not normally teams I'd be looking to play an under with. There is an outside factor here though. The weather is expected to be really ugly for this one. Memphis is expected to get 20-25 mph winds and some rain during this game. Both of these teams are very pass happy generally, but I fully expect it to be very difficult to throw the ball as normal. Will they still get some big plays? Yes. Still, this game is totaled extremely high. Everything has to go right for the over when the number is set like this. With weather like this, I don't think that will happen. Games with 12 mph sustained winds and totals of 60 points or higher have cashed at 60% under in the past ten years. We can certainly assume that with rain the number would improve. I think the elements will make the two teams more conservative. I'll go under this very high number. Take the under. |
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11-12-17 | Cowboys +3.5 v. Falcons | 7-27 | Loss | -108 | 15 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Dallas Cowboys won't have Ezekiel Elliot here, but this is still a good team. In fact, with Sean Lee in the lineup on defense, I believe this is a very good Cowboys team. What have the Falcons proven so far this year? Atlanta was very fortunate to beat the Lions early in the year. The Falcons lost at home to both the Bills and the Dolphins. They were beaten badly by New England. Atlanta was terrific last year, but they haven't proven much this season. Dallas' defense is in my estimation a little better than Atlanta's. The Cowboys are a different unit with Lee on the field. Atlanta's primary weakness on defense is stopping the run, and Dallas should have little trouble running the ball here even without Elliot. The Cowboys offensive front is tremendous. Kyle Shanahan is definitely missed by Atlanta. The offense hasn't been as efficient this year, and that starts with numbers that are way down for Matt Ryan. Atlanta is 0-4 ATS in their last 4 following a loss. I'll grab the points in a game that should be very close. Take Dallas. |
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11-12-17 | Chargers v. Jaguars UNDER 41 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has easily been the best in the NFL against the pass. The LA Chargers are throwing the ball on 62.4% of their plays so far this year. The Chargers offensive line has performed well this year, but Jacksonville has been best in the league in rushing the passer. Rivers will have less time than normal to throw here. The Jags secondary should make LA struggle far more than normal through the air. The Jaguars run the ball more than any other team in the NFL. They are running it on almost 53% of their plays on offense. Look for them to run the ball and go on long drives that eat up a lot of clock here. Jacksonville has struggled to punch it in the end zone consistently, and that likely continues here. The Chargers defense ranks 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed in their last three contests. There is clear sharp money here on the under, and I agree. I think both defenses play well in this one. The under is 5-0 in the Chargers last 5 vs. the AFC. Take the under. |
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11-12-17 | Jets v. Bucs OVER 43.5 | 10-15 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New York Jets offense has been surprisingly good on offense this year. They have averaged almost 28 points per game in their last three contests (including one played in a driving rainstorm against Atlanta two weeks ago). The Jets passing attack has been an area of strength of late, and they are going up against the worst passing defense in the NFL here. The Jets defense is still a problem with their pass secondary being the biggest weakness. While some might consider Fitzpatrick a huge step down from Winston, I'm not sure the dropoff is that big. Winston has been injured and inconsistent this year. The Bucs have scored 25 points or more in half their games this year. Tampa Bay is capable on offense. I think this is a game between two teams who aren't very good defensively at keeping plays in front of them. Look for a lot of big plays from the offenses. Take the over. |
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11-11-17 | Alabama v. Mississippi State UNDER 51 | 31-24 | Loss | -110 | 42 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The under is a perfect 8-0 in the last 8 meetings between Alabama and Mississippi State in Mississippi. Take a look back at those games and you'll see a lot of the same characteristics. Both of these teams run the ball at a high percentage of their overall offensive plays. That has been the case for quite some time. Alabama has generally won this game on the road with great defense and a good enough running game. Alabama is 2nd and Mississippi State is 24th in yards per play allowed this year. Alabama runs the ball on 64% of their offensive plays this year. Mississippi State runs it on 62.4% of their plays. That's extremely run heavy compared to the country overall. Both teams are also playing slower this year. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running I see this one staying under the total. Take the under. |
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11-11-17 | Purdue v. Northwestern UNDER 48.5 | 13-23 | Win | 100 | 26 h 43 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Northwestern Wildcats and Purdue Boilermakers meet in a Big 10 battle in Evanston on Saturday. The wind is expected to be around 14 mph during this game. That's enough to make it difficult to throw the football downfield. Northwestern's rushing defense ranks 7th in the nation when you account for strength of schedule. I think they can make Purdue one dimensional on offense and then get after the passer. Northwestern's offensive line play has been terrible this year. They rank among the 20 worst offensive lines in the country. Thorson has been under pressure immediately on a bunch of plays. Jackson has been banged up at running back, and Northwestern just hasn't gotten anything going on offense this year. The under is 36-15-1 in Northwestern's last 52 home games. The under is 4-0 in Purdue's last 4. Take the under. |
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11-11-17 | Washington State v. Utah +1.5 | 33-25 | Loss | -110 | 64 h 44 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Utah* The Utah Utes have one of the best home field advantages in all of football. Washington State has been very shaky on the road this year. Washington State is 1-2 on the road this year. They were blown out at Cal and at Arizona. Washington State's pass offense hasn't been nearly as efficient as normal this year. They are still throwing the ball more than 68% of the time though. Washington State has given up the most sacks of any team in the country at 38. This offensive line is really bad, and they are up against an elite defensive front in Utah. The Utes should be in the backfield constantly in this one. Utah had a little extra time to prepare for this one since they played during the week last week. That's a positive especially with a coach as good as Kyle Whittingham. Look for Utah to do a good job defensively here and get the win. Take Utah. |
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11-11-17 | Arkansas State v. South Alabama UNDER 54.5 | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 24 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The South Alabama Jaguars have played a bunch of low scoring games this year. Inside Sun Belt play, they have three games that have finished with a total of 34 points or less in the game. One other game (Idaho) was 20-20 before overtime. Only one of their conference games has gone over this total and it was a 33-23 game against LA Monroe (who plays in a ton of high scoring affairs). South Alabama's defense is far better than the average one in this conference, and they play at a slow pace. The Jaguars offense hasn't been any good all year. Arkansas State doesn't have any running game. The Red Wolves air it out a lot, but South Alabama's secondary is the strength of their team. I think this one is several points too high. Take the under. |
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11-11-17 | Georgia State v. Texas State UNDER 50.5 | 33-30 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Texas State Bobcats and the Georgia State Panthers meet on Saturday in a game where both defenses have significant statistical edges on the offenses. These are two teams who have struggled to put together long drives. The defenses are both good at keeping everything in front of them and avoiding long plays from scrimmage. I had this one totaled far below this number. Take the under. |
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11-11-17 | Georgia v. Auburn UNDER 51.5 | 17-40 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* Auburn and Georgia have a history of playing low scoring games against each other. These are two of the top ten defenses in the country. Both teams run much more than the average team. Georgia plays at one of the slowest paces of any team in the country. Auburn ranks in the middle of the pack in tempo. With a lot of running and two elite defenses, the clock should keep ticking throughout this game. I had this one projected in the mid 40's. Take the under. |
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11-11-17 | Iowa v. Wisconsin UNDER 46 | 14-38 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Iowa Hawkeyes offense looked amazing against Ohio State last week, but Iowa's offense hadn't been all that impressive for much of the season. I think they come back down to earth here. Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the nation. The Badgers rank sixth in the nation in yards per play allowed. Wisconsin's running attack is good, but it isn't as good as it has been in some years in the past. Wisconsin ranks 25th in the nation in yards per carry. That is despite playing against some really bad defenses against the run. They are good at running the ball, but they aren't elite. The strength of this Badgers team is their defense. Wisconsin ranks 129th in pace of play this year out of 130 teams. They will eat up the time by going on long drives that can use up more than half of a quarter. The last two years these teams have played to 10-6 and 17-9 final scores. The under is 6-0 in Iowa's last 6 after scoring 40 points or more last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two at Wisconsin. A 10-0 angle. Take the under. |
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11-11-17 | Michigan State +17.5 v. Ohio State | 3-48 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Michigan State* The Michigan State Spartans and Ohio State Buckeyes have played a bunch of close games against each other the last few years. You have to go back to 2008 to find a game where either team won by more than 12. What about the last five contests? In aggregate score, Ohio State leads 121-120. Michigan State has lost to Ohio State 17-16 twice during that span. Ohio State clearly has several key flaws. Their special teams are a clear weakness. Ohio State's pass blocking isn't very good, and their receivers aren't any better than average. Michigan State has a good quarterback now in Brian Lewerke. Last week Iowa had a great game plan to torch this Ohio State secondary. Expect Michigan State to have success moving the ball here too. Yes, Ohio State should be ticked off and bounce back, but this line is extremely high. This is an early game at the Horseshoe so the environment isn't as tough for the visitors. Michigan State should be plenty motivated for this one. Grab the points. Take Michigan State. |
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11-11-17 | UL-Lafayette v. Ole Miss OVER 61.5 | 22-50 | Win | 100 | 118 h 49 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Ole Miss Rebels have scored 37 points in each of their last two games and that was against SEC defenses in Arkansas and Kentucky. Lafayette's defense is very weak. They allowed 66 points earlier this year against Tulsa. The Ragin' Cajuns like to play quickly. They are top 40 in the nation in tempo. Ole Miss is top 20 in the nation in pace. A fast paced game where Ole Miss puts up a big number here. Take the over. |
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11-11-17 | Oklahoma State v. Iowa State +7 | 49-42 | Push | 0 | 57 h 5 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Iowa State* It would be hard to find a worse spot for Oklahoma State. The Cowboys had a chance to win their rivalry game vs. Oklahoma last week and really put themselves into consideration for the playoffs. They blew that chance. It's hard for college kids to not have some negative effects of a loss in a gigantic game like that one. On the other side, Iowa State has been very good under Matt Campbell this year. The Cyclones are much improved on defense. Their secondary is the strength of this team. Oklahoma State is reliant on getting big plays in the passing game. The Cyclones played Oklahoma State tough the last couple years even when Iowa State wasn't good. They lost by only 7 at Oklahoma State last year. They lost by 4 two years ago at home as an 11.5 point dog. I'll take the full touchdown on the dog here largely because of the spot for Oklahoma State. Take Iowa State. |
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11-09-17 | Seahawks v. Cardinals UNDER 41.5 | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 19 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Thursday Night THUNDER* The Arizona Cardinals showed us a blueprint of what they want to try do in their win against San Francisco last week. Adrian Peterson had 37 carries in that game. That's a career high for Peterson, who is an old man in running back years. It's hard to imagine him being as good as he was last game, especially since he is up against a much better defense this time around. Clearly, Arizona doesn't feel very comfortable with Stanton under center, and I don't think Seattle will give up very many against them here. Russell Wilson is excellent, but he has a very bad offensive line in front of him. The Arizona defense is pretty good, and their numbers have been much better at home in recent seasons than on the road. Seattle's offense has no running game and Lacy is out for this one as well. There is a good system for Thursday night games in the NFL. When both teams are off only 4 days of rest and it is a division game in week 9 or later: the under is 16-5 in the last 21 games. I think we are in for another low scoring contest here. Take the under. |
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11-08-17 | Toledo v. Ohio OVER 62 | 10-38 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Ohio has gotten much improved quarterback play this year. The Bobcats have been a really good offense in MAC play this season. Ohio has actually scored 42 points or more in 6 of their 9 games this year. They have scored 48, 48, and 45 in their last three games. Toledo has the best quarterback in the MAC in Logan Woodside. Their offense is very explosive. They have tremendous balance and break off a lot of big plays. I see a back and forth game with both offenses having the upper hand. Take the over. *This line has moved a bit since I made the selection on Monday. I rate this as a 4 star play up to 65 and a 3 star play up to 69 points. Thank you.* |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green v. Buffalo OVER 55 | 28-38 | Win | 100 | 29 h 8 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls have their quarterback back in the fold and this offense should be able to have success against a Bowling Green defense that is one of the worst in the nation. Bowling Green's offense has been much better in recent weeks, and Buffalo's defense has several key injuries. The tempo of both teams ranks among the 30 fastest in the country. With two bad defenses and a number this low, I'll take the over. Take the over here. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys -2 | 17-28 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Chiefs/Cowboys CASH* The Dallas Cowboys will have Ezekiel Elliot for this one. There's a real chance this will be last game though before serving a suspension. Dallas should run the ball very well here. Kansas City ranks 30th in the league in run defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. Dallas' rushing attack is number. Kansas City's defense has been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL. The Cowboys defense isn't good, but it is much better now than it had been. Sean Lee being back in the fold helps this defense a bunch, and I expect their numbers to generally improve gradually. Kansas City has two key offensive linemen listed as questionable here. Justin Houston is also questionable. Dallas is the healthier team. In addition, Dallas has the rest advantage and more prep time since Kansas City played on Monday night. Take Dallas. |
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11-05-17 | Redskins v. Seahawks -7 | 17-14 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Seattle Seahawks* The Seattle Seahawks host the Washington Redskins on Sunday afternoon. Seattle is 66-45-4 ATS (59.5%) at home in the past ten years. Seattle is 61.3% ATS at home in the past ten years at home when they are against a team with a win percentage of 60% or lower. Seattle's offense has been getting quite a few explosive plays of late. The wide receivers are playing better this year, and Russell Wilson is playing at a very high level. Though the Seahawks defense aren't what they used to be, this is still a good defense. A big key here is the mass of injuries to the Washington offensive line. This line is torn apart by injuries right now. Kirk Cousins is playing behind a makeshift offensive line, and that will be a problem here. Jordan Reed is doubtful here too and that's a massive loss to the passing game. Seattle is in a good spot to pick up a big win over an injury ravaged Washington team. Take Seattle. |
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11-05-17 | Colts v. Texans OVER 49 | 20-14 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 51 m | Show | |
***THIS IS NO LONGER A RECOMMENDED PLAY DUE TO THE DESHAUN WATSON INJURY*** |
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11-05-17 | Bengals +6 v. Jaguars | 7-23 | Loss | -110 | 44 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Jacksonville Jaguars are a much improved team. There is no doubt about that. I backed Jacksonville a couple weeks ago against Indianapolis and cashed, but this line doesn't make much sense to me. The pendulum has swung too far the other way now. This is a team that was given no respect for a while, and now people are jumping on the bandwagon very fast. Jacksonville has a great pass defense. They have a great pass rush. The Jaguars are not good against the run. Jacksonville's offense is good at running the ball, but I expect this strong Bengals defensive front to do a good enough job stopping the run to make Blake Bortles make some plays. I don't trust Bortles to make those plays. A team with Bortles at quarterback can't be favored by 6 against another team that is solid (I consider the Bengals middle of the road in the NFL). I'll take the points. The Jaguars are 9-19-1 ATS in their last 29 following a win. They are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. Take Cincinnati. |
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11-05-17 | Ravens v. Titans UNDER 43 | 20-23 | Push | 0 | 44 h 57 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The weather here should play a role. Nashville's forecast for Sunday is for 15 mph with gusts of 25 mph. That's plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Neither one of these teams are very good at throwing the ball to start with, but the weather should make them even more one dimensional. Joe Flacco is cleared to play here, but he has been terrible this season. Flacco has a QBR better than one quarterback in the NFL (Kizer of the Browns). The Titans will load up the box here. Tennessee's rushing attack is solid, but the Ravens front seven is a good unit. I think they'll keep the Titans running game from breaking out. Both teams play slower than the league average and with a lot of run the clock will be ticking away. Take the under. |
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11-05-17 | Broncos v. Eagles UNDER 42 | 23-51 | Loss | -115 | 44 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Eagles offense has been excellent this year, but this is the best defense they have played. Denver's defensive numbers are a little tricky, since the offense has been so bad that it has put them in terrible positions. This is still a top two or three defense in the NFL. The move to Brock Osweiler likely helps the under. He is less likely to throw terrible interceptions than Siemian, but he is also less likely to make impressive throws. I consider him the more conservative option. Philadelphia's defense is healthier now than they were, and they should be solid against a Denver team that is likely to run the ball a lot here. Both teams have very good pass rushes compared to the offensive pass protection against them. Look for both quarterbacks to be under pressure throughout this game. I see both offenses struggling to get into the end zone here. Take the under. |
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11-04-17 | BYU v. Fresno State UNDER 45 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 130 h 45 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The BYU Cougars offense looked a lot better last week against San Jose State, but Fresno State is a whole different animal than San Jose State. This Fresno State defense has been tremendous this year. Fresno State ranks 19th in the country in yards per play allowed and that is despite the fact they played Washington and Alabama. Fresno State is coming off a disappointing loss to UNLV and I expect them to come out ready to go in this one. BYU's defense ranks in the top 50 in yards per play allowed. The Cougars aren't great on this side of the ball, but they are pretty good. Both teams play at a very slow pace. Fresno State ranks among the 20 slowest teams in the country. BYU ranks among the 25 slowest teams in the country (out of 130). Take the under. |
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11-04-17 | Virginia Tech v. Miami-FL UNDER 50 | 10-28 | Win | 100 | 65 h 54 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Miami/Virginia Tech Totals CASH* The Miami Hurricanes and Virginia Tech Hokies are both very good teams. Both of them are led by their strong defenses. Miami is 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Virginia Tech is 11th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Miami's secondary has held opposing quarterbacks to the third lowest QBR on average of any team in the country. Virginia Tech is 7th in that same category. The Hokies always have an elite secondary. Miami's offense was great against non-conference opponents, but they have struggled of late. They have multiple injuries and the offensive line is a weakness. Virginia Tech's pass rush is above average and should cause problems. Virginia Tech's offense is 48th in the country in yards per play. The running game has been weak all year, and Miami's secondary is tremendous. I see this as a hard fought battle where both defenses have the upper hand in a tight game. Take the under. |
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11-04-17 | Texas +7.5 v. TCU | 7-24 | Loss | -110 | 128 h 9 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Texas* The TCU Horned Frogs had their bubble burst by Iowa State last weekend. It is really unlikely that they would get back in the national title conversation. It's often hard for college kids to bounce back from a loss like that right away. Texas goes to TCU for this one, and the Longhorns are playing with a ton of confidence. The defensive effort from Texas of late has been tremendous. They held Oklahoma State's tremendous offense to 13 points. They held Baylor, a pretty good offense, to only 7 points last week. Tom Herman is a perfect 13-0 ATS as an underdog when you combine his assistant coaching career at Ohio State and his time as a head coach. At this price, I have to take Texas in a game I expect to be very close. Take Texas. |
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11-04-17 | Colorado State -2.5 v. Wyoming | 13-16 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on Colorado State* The Wyoming Cowboys are first in the nation in turnover margin. That's the type of thing that usually regresses to the mean over time. Colorado State is 13th in the nation in yards per play. This is a terrific offense. Colorado State has great balance on offense. Stevens is a good quarterback and Gallup is one of the best receivers in the country. They have a couple very good running backs as well. Wyoming's offense is 122nd in the nation in yards per play. Allen has talent at quarterback, but there isn't much talent around him. Wyoming's defensive stats are pretty good on the season, but I think that is more about playing a very weak schedule (Gardner Webb, Texas State) than anything else. Colorado State is coming off a really disappointing performance last game. I think they bounce back here. Lay the short number. Take Colorado State. |
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11-04-17 | UTSA v. Florida International UNDER 54 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 125 h 2 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UTSA defense was very good last year. I expect them to improve as conference play goes along this year. Their coach is a defensive minded coach who will work hard on that side of the ball. FIU is coming off a high scoring game against Marshall last week, but in general their offense has been mediocre or worse. Both of these teams play at a very slow pace. UTSA ranks among the five slowest teams in the country. Take the under. |
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11-04-17 | Nevada +22 v. Boise State | 14-41 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Nevada* The Boise State Broncos are unlikely to be motivated to run up the score in this one. Boise State plays at Colorado State next week. Colorado State is one of Boise State's biggest threats in the Mountain West. This is a look ahead spot for Boise State. The Broncos are 0-10 ATS in their last 10 home games. They aren't the same team they were in the past. Boise State is a good team, but they aren't as efficient offensively, so they often win closer games. Nevada has their quarterback Ty Gangi back on the field, and he has been a difference maker for them. I think the Wolf Pack can do enough here to stay relatively close. Boise State's run defense is very good, but their secondary is only decent. Nevada had a bye week to prepare for this game, and this is a much better spot for the road team. Take Nevada. |
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11-04-17 | South Carolina v. Georgia UNDER 49 | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 122 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Georgia Bulldogs pound the football with their running game. That means a running clock for much of the game. Georgia's defense ranks third in yards per play allowed in the country. This is an excellent Georgia team. South Carolina's defense has been pretty good this year. The Gamecocks offense isn't efficient at all. South Carolina ranks in the bottom 15 in pace of play and Georgia ranks in the bottom ten in the country in pace of play. There shouldn't be many possessions in this game. Look for Georgia to grab the lead and run consistently and use up the clock. Take the under. |
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11-04-17 | North Texas v. Louisiana Tech OVER 67 | 24-23 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Louisiana Tech Bulldogs offense isn't what it was last year, but they should be able to pile up the points against this North Texas defense. North Texas has allowed 37.9 points per game so far this year, which ranks them among the ten worst in the nation in that category. North Texas is averaging 37.4 points per game this year. This Mean Green offense is much improved this year under the leadership of Seth Littrell and quarterback Mason Fine. Fine is a rising star who should end up being great in this offense. He's already very good. Only two North Texas games this year have stayed under this total. Louisiana Tech's offense is better than they have shown, and I expect a big number from them here. North Texas will likely stay close too. Take the over. |
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11-04-17 | Western Kentucky v. Vanderbilt OVER 53 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Vanderbilt Commodores and the Western Kentucky Hilltoppers are both very pass heavy teams so far this season. Vanderbilt is throwing it on 56.5% of their plays. Western Kentucky is throwing it on 59.8% of their offensive plays. Passing teams are clearly better for the over when it comes to the drives taking less time with the clock stopped for incomplete passes. Western Kentucky's offense was really disappointing early in the year. They are finally putting it together of late. The Hilltoppers have scored 108 points in their last three games. Mike White and the passing game are finally clicking. Vanderbilt's defense has fallen apart of late. They have allowed 34 points or more in four straight games. That includes a game against Florida where they allowed 38 points to that bad Florida offense. Western Kentucky's run defense is good, but their secondary is a weakness. I see both teams scoring a solid amount here. Take the over. |
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11-04-17 | Kansas State v. Texas Tech OVER 63 | 42-35 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Kansas State Wildcats don't have as good of a defense as they have had in recent seasons. Kansas State's run defense is good, but their secondary is a bit of a problem. Texas Tech is clearly capable of exposing problems in the secondary. Kansas State ranks 72nd in the nation in QBR allowed year to date. Kansas State's rushing attack has been very good this year. The Wildcats are averaging 5.10 yards per carry. Texas Tech's weakness is their run defense. The Red Raiders allowed 5.78 yards per carry two weeks ago against Iowa State and 7.15 yards per carry last week against Oklahoma. The history between these two is for high scoring contests. Dating back to 2008 here is the final total of all the matchups between these two teams: 86, 80, 75, 79, 75, 58, 103, and 82. Only one of the games was under, and it was close to this total. Take the over in this one. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos v. Chiefs UNDER 43 | 19-29 | Loss | -110 | 87 h 28 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Monday Night Money* The Kansas City Chiefs host the Denver Broncos in this AFC West clash on Monday night. Kansas City is coming off two straight losses. The Chiefs will be anxious to right the ship and I think that means an improved defensive effort here. Kansas City's pass rush should be able to get pressure in this game, and Trevor Siemian has been really poor under pressure. Denver's defense is second in the NFL in yards per play allowed. Denver's offense has had serious problems this year, but the defense is still elite. Denver and Kansas City are very familiar with each other, and familiarity helps the defenses. Division home favorites of 7 points or more have seen their games go under the total at a rate of 19-4 in the last 23 when the total is 41 or higher. Tony Corrente's crew works this game, and they are the best under crew in the game. The under is 81-60 in their games (57.5%). Expect a hard fought game here. Take the under. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys v. Redskins UNDER 49.5 | 33-19 | Loss | -110 | 60 h 48 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Top Total of the Week* The Dallas Cowboys defense expects to get Sean Lee back for this game. Lee is the most important player on this defense, and I expect him to make a difference right away. Washington is coming off a disappointing loss on Monday Night Football against the Eagles. The Redskins are expected to get Josh Norman back at CB here, and that's a big boost to their defense. This is a divisional rivalry where there are often a bunch of close games. This one has an extra wrinkle in that the weather is expected to be a major problem. The forecast calls for rain and 15-25 mph winds with gusts to 30 mph in this one. How much does wind hurt scoring in these divisional games in the NFL? With wind of 10 mph or higher and a total of 40 or higher: the under is a whopping 115-71 in the last 186 situations. That's 62% unders. With the total here set at a pretty high number and both teams getting back key defenders combined with the weather here- I think the under holds significant value. Take the under. |
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10-29-17 | Falcons v. Jets UNDER 44.5 | 25-20 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Atlanta Falcons and New York Jets square off in a game that is expected to be played in miserable weather conditions. The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for a 100% chance of rain with heavy downpours and winds of 20 to 25 mph with gusts of 35 mph. That is some brutal weather. It's a clear plus for the under. What does that mean? It should mean more conservative play calling from both teams. It should mean the defenses are ready for the run, because it will be very difficult to throw the ball efficiently in a game like this. The Falcons offense hasn't been the same with Shanahan at OC. The Jets offense is very inconsistent. With the weather as big factor, I'm on the under here. Take the under. |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills OVER 46 | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 33 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Take a look at the injury report for this game and you'll see a bunch of key names from the defensive side on both teams are out. Both secondaries are very thin for this one. Oakland's secondary is missing two of their top three corners. Derek Carr and the Raiders offense were great last game, and I expect Oakland's offense to be much better now that Carr is healthy again. He is a budding star in the league, and he has plenty of weapons around him. Tyrod Taylor is capable of making big plays, and he's up against arguably the worst secondary in the NFL here. Buffalo's tempo has consistently ranked in the top five in the NFL as well. Look for a close game with both offenses having quite a bit of success. Take the over. |
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10-28-17 | UTSA v. UTEP UNDER 48 | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 40 h 32 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The UTEP Miners offense ranks as the second least efficient offense in the nation out of 130 teams. UTEP has scored 16 points or less in 6 of their 7 games this year. They have been held to 14 points or less in 5 of 7 games. UTEP's defense has been much better in the last couple games since Mike Price took over as interim coach. It seems the Miners have changed up their schemes a bit and allowed less big plays. This defense ranked as one of the bottom 10 in efficiency in the first five games. They rank in the top 50 in the last couple games. UTSA's defense was a major strength last year. They have looked worse of late, but a date with UTEP should fix their defensive struggles. Take the under here. |
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10-28-17 | Duke v. Virginia Tech UNDER 49 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB 100% Angle CRUSHER* The Virginia Tech Hokies are running the ball on 58% of their offensive plays so far this year. Adjusted for strength of schedule though, Virginia Tech has the 110th best rushing attack in the country. Duke's defense is 51st in the country in rushing defense adjusted by strength of schedule. Duke's offense ranks as one of the five least efficient offenses in the country in their last four games. The Blue Devils haven't gotten any big plays, and they are up against a Virginia Tech defense that is very good here. The forecast calls for 8 mph wind (nothing too major) but a 70% chance of rain in this one. That should make the game plans a little more conservative. Both defenses excel against the run so that plays into their hands. The under is 6-0 in Duke's last 6 games. The under is 5-0 in their last 5 ACC games. The under is 4-0 in VA Tech's last 4 following an ATS cover. A 15-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-28-17 | Minnesota v. Iowa UNDER 42.5 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 124 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* While this is a low total, I think there is a good reason for it to be low. In fact, I made this total 38 points. We have two teams who like to play smash mouth football here. They are going to want to run the football consistently and both teams play at a slow pace. What about the defenses? Minnesota ranks 25th in yards per play allowed and Iowa ranks 39th, so both are solid. Neither offense is very good. Iowa is 85th in the nation in yards per play at 5.2 per play. Minnesota is 87th at 5.1 per play. The defenses are clearly better than the offenses here. With a slow tempo and a bunch of running plays, I see this staying under. Take the under. |
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10-28-17 | Old Dominion v. North Texas OVER 61 | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 38 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green rank 110th in the nation in total defense. The Old Dominion Monarchs rank 103rd in the nation in total defense. North Texas is playing at a very quick pace under Seth Littrell in the air raid offense. Mason Fine is a very good quarterback, and I expect him and this North Texas offense to have a lot of success against an Old Dominion defense that has been ravaged by injuries this year. Old Dominion's offense is much better with Lawry back and healthy at running back. North Texas has allowed a whopping 10 plays of 50 yards or more on the year, so expect some explosive plays from Old Dominion here. Take the over. |
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10-28-17 | TCU v. Iowa State UNDER 53 | 7-14 | Win | 100 | 121 h 17 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Iowa State Cyclones defense is one of the most improved defenses in the country this year. They rank 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.6 per play. Iowa State was great on defense last weekend in their win at Texas Tech. Iowa State has a big homefield advantage as well, and that should make it tougher on TCU's offense here. The TCU defense has been elite of late. TCU has a lot of veterans on this defense, and Patterson is a good defensive minded coach. TCU has allowed 6 points in their last two games. I think perception of the Big 12 as everyone being high scoring has this number inflated by several points. Take the under. *I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.* |
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10-28-17 | UCLA v. Washington -17 | 23-44 | Win | 100 | 110 h 38 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Washington* The Washington Huskies are coming off a straight up loss as a favorite of 17.5 points at Arizona State. Chris Petersen's team still has a chance to get into the playoff, but they are going to have to win out and be impressive in the process. Petersen is one of the best coaches in the game, and I like him having extra time to prepare a team coming off a surprising loss. The Huskies should be ready for this one. UCLA is coached by Jim Mora Jr. and he is one of the worst in the country at maximizing talent. The Bruins have too much talent to lose as many games as they do, and yet it happens on a consistent basis. UCLA's offensive line is a major weakness, but the Bruins are throwing the ball at the third highest rate as a percentage of their plays of any team in the country. Washington ranks fifth in the nation in sacks per game, and UCLA's offensive line has been giving up 2.5 sacks per game. With Washington knowing the throw is coming, I think they really get after Josh Rosen in this matchup. I'll go ahead and play this now with the expectation that the line will go up. UCLA is 1-10 ATS in their last 11 games following an ATS cover. The Huskies are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 following a straight up loss. I like Washington to make a statement here. Take Washington. |
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10-28-17 | Georgia v. Florida UNDER 47 | 42-7 | Loss | -110 | 122 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Florida Gators take on the Georgia Bulldogs this weekend. Florida's offense has been really bad all season, and it is hard to imagine them turning things around much against a very good defense like Georgia. Georgia is a running team. The Bulldogs are going to run the football consistently here, and that uses up the clock. Florida is going to try to run as much as they can as well, because their quarterback play has been terrible. The last two years this game has been extremely low scoring. I see another low scoring battle here with Georgia holding Florida to a very low number. Take the under. *I selected this game early in the week. The line has since moved some. I would still select the under here, but for a 3 star rated play instead of 4. Thank you and good luck.* |
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10-28-17 | Michigan State v. Northwestern UNDER 41 | 31-39 | Loss | -115 | 35 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Big 10 Total Takedown* The Northwestern Wildcats defense has been very good against the run this year. Northwestern ranks 19th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. That is despite going against great rushing offenses in Wisconsin and Penn State already this year. Michigan State has run the ball on almost 60% of their offensive plays this year. I think Northwestern can do a solid job slowing down the run game here. Northwestern's offensive line is one of the worst in the Big 10. Michigan State ranks near the top of the country in quarterback hurries. Thorson isn't going to be comfortable in this game. Michigan State is 6th in the country in yards per play allowed. The defenses have the advantage across the board here. Also important to note, the wind is expected to be sustained at about 16 or 17 mph during this game. That is plenty to make it much harder to throw the football. Expect more running and conservative game plans. The under is 36-14-1 in NW's last 51 home games. Take the under. |
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10-28-17 | Appalachian State v. UMass OVER 55 | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 35 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Appalachian State Mountaineers offense is really playing well right now. Appalachian State has a really good offensive front, and they'll have a big edge in the trenches in this game. UMass has been much better in recent games offensively. UMass has scored 50 and 55 points in their last two games. They won't score that here, but I do think they have enough weapons to give a short-handed Appalachian State defense some trouble. UMass has been playing fast of late, and with them pushing the tempo a total of only 55 isn't very high. Take the over here. |
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10-28-17 | Kansas State v. Kansas UNDER 60.5 | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 120 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Kansas Jayhawks had 21 yards of offense against TCU last week. Kansas has failed to score a point in their last two games. They'll probably score here, but I don't think they score very many. A total set this high with one team (Kansas State) that plays so slowly, and another team that is so inept on offense, I have to take the under. I do think Kansas State can score quite a few here, but I think this total should be around 55, so I'll take the value at this number. Take the under. |
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10-28-17 | Miami-FL v. North Carolina UNDER 54.5 | 24-19 | Win | 100 | 32 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Early Bird Special* The North Carolina Tar Heels defense has actually gotten a little better in the last few weeks. They didn't even allow 400 yards to VA Tech last week, but the Hokies scored 59 points. It was UNC interceptions and special teams blunders that led to the big point total for VA Tech. As North Carolina's defense has improved, their efficiency on offense has fallen badly. The number of injuries this team has on the offensive side of the ball right now is mind boggling. They have no real playmakers, and sustaining drives has been very difficult for them. It should be really hard against a Miami defense that is one of the top 20 in the nation. Miami has some very big games on deck, and I'm not sure they will want to run the score up here. This is a good spot to get out with a win and move on for the Hurricanes. The under is 5-0 in Miami's last 5 road games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 October games. The under is 4-0 in their last 4 ACC games. A 13-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-22-17 | Broncos +1 v. Chargers | 0-21 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Denver Broncos are coming off a really bad performance against the New York Giants this past Sunday night. Denver was a massive favorite and no one gave the Giants a chance. The Giants go in and win easily, and now this line has moved from the look ahead line significantly. Denver was slated to be a -2.5 or -3 favorite and now some books are showing Denver +1. It's important to remember that the Chargers have no home field advantage. It won't be a surprise if there are more Broncos fans than Chargers fans in the stands for this one. Phillip Rivers is an ugly 3-16 ATS in his last 19 home games against divisional foes. The Broncos are 14-4 ATS in their last 18 road divisional games. Denver has the much better defense, and I think the Broncos bounce back here against a Chargers team that often finds ways to lose close games. Take Denver. |
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10-22-17 | Jaguars -3 v. Colts | 27-0 | Win | 100 | 58 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Red Hot CASH* The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't a team I want to lay points with very often, but I do think this is a good matchup for them. Indianapolis played Monday night, so Jacksonville has had more time to get ready for this game. The Colts run defense ranks 18th in the NFL at this point, but if you factor in who they have played thus far I think the run defense for Indianapolis is even worse than that. The Jaguars are going to run the football here. They have been doing it well in recent contests, and I think they'll have success again here. Jacksonville is second in the NFL at 5.0 yards per carry on the season. The Jaguars defense is the biggest reason I like this play. They are elite at pass rushing and defending the pass. The Colts offensive line has struggled with injuries, and they are no match for the Jacksonville defensive front. I'll lay the field goal with the better defense and the much better run game, especially with them having a preparation advantage. Take Jacksonville. |
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10-22-17 | Saints v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 58 h 40 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Green Bay Packers start Brett Hundley here as Aaron Rodgers is out indefinitely with an injury. That's obviously a massive loss, and I expect the Packers to have a much more conservative game plan ready for this one. New Orleans had an extremely high scoring game filled with defensive and special teams touchdowns last week. That has inflated this total a bit. The weather here should be a factor. The forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a 70% chance of rain during the game. Wind combined with rain is definitely a plus for the under. The New Orleans passing game isn't likely to be quite as effective in those conditions. Green Bay is better defensively at home, and the Saints aren't as good offensively on the road. The weather combines with a new QB for the Packers to create value on the under. Take the under. |
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10-21-17 | Colorado v. Washington State UNDER 53.5 | 0-28 | Win | 100 | 55 h 11 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather is the story here. Pullman is experiencing some nasty weather this weekend. The current forecast calls for a 80% chance of rain with a temperature in the mid 40's and winds of 20 mph. That makes it very hard for passing attacks to work. Washington State will have to run more than normal. Colorado's passing defense is their strength, and Washington State isn't a very good running team. Colorado's offense has been a disappointment all year. The Buffaloes are struggling to get explosive plays. Alex Grinch's defense is much improved at Washington State, and I think they bounce back from last week's game with a strong defensive effort. Take the under here. |
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10-21-17 | Arizona -2.5 v. California | 45-44 | Loss | -115 | 51 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Situational Spot CASH* The Cal Golden Bears are feeling really good about themselves right now. They are coming off a blowout win over a top ten team in the country. Cal isn't nearly as good as they looked in that game though, and the Golden Bears still have some glaring weaknesses. Arizona comes in with one of the best running games in the country. The Wildcats run the ball on 65% of their plays from scrimmage. Cal's weakness is their run defense. On the surface they look good against the run, but they have only played one team who runs the football really well (Oregon). The Ducks ran for 328 yards in that game. Tate is a difference maker at quarterback for Arizona. This team is much better with him under center, and I think they'll run the ball very well here. Cal's offense isn't consistent, and I think the spot with Cal having a letdown is much better for Arizona. Take Arizona. |
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10-21-17 | USC v. Notre Dame -3 | 14-49 | Win | 100 | 41 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB National TV KNOCKOUT* The Notre Dame Fighting Irish have run the football very well this year. The offensive line has been dominating, and they have played some solid defensive fronts. Notre Dame is averaging a whopping 6.90 yards per carry. That's good for third best in the nation. USC doesn't have the defensive depth they usually do. The Trojans rank 65th in yards per carry allowed at 4.12 per carry allowed. USC has a couple stars, but they don't have the consistency at the linebacker position or on the defensive line we expect from them. Sam Darnold hasn't been very good so far this year. I think the primary reason for that is the offensive line. Darnold hasn't been comfortable. Notre Dame has the advantage here in that there are 15 mph plus winds forecast for this game and that certainly hurts a passing team like USC more than a team that pounds the football constantly. Notre Dame is coming off a bye week. Teams with a win percentage above 70% coming off a bye week against a team with a win percentage of 70% or higher that isn't off a bye week are 41-11 ATS in the last 52 contests. Take Notre Dame. |
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10-21-17 | Michigan v. Penn State UNDER 45 | 13-42 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Michigan/Penn State MONEY* The Michigan Wolverines have held all six of their opponents to season lows in total yards. There is no doubt this Michigan defense is excellent. Penn State's defense is 4th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 4.01. Michigan is second at only 3.68 per play allowed. Penn State ranks in the bottom half of the country in terms of pace of play. Michigan ranks in the bottom 20 in tempo as well. I don't see either team playing quickly here. Michigan is first in the nation in pass defense when adjusted for strength of schedule. I think Michigan can reduce Penn State's big play ability much better than most teams. Michigan's passing attack has been non-existent of late, and Penn State's front seven should be up for the challenge of stuffing the run. There's a good chance this game stays in the 30's. Take the under. |
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10-21-17 | North Texas v. Florida Atlantic OVER 59 | Top | 31-69 | Win | 100 | 124 h 35 m | Show |
*5 Star CFB TOP Play Total* I had this one lined at 70 points, so this is a big play for me. Both teams play at a very quick pace. Both teams have the ability to break a bunch of explosive plays. I don't see either defense being able to contain the opposition. Big bet on the over for me. North Texas' Mason Fine is really coming into his own in this offense. Florida Atlantic hasn't allowed less than 5.48 yards per play in a game against an FBS opponent all year. The North Texas defense has allowed 5.06 yards per play or more in all their games against FBS opponents. Both of these teams play fast and there will be a lot of possessions. Take the over. |
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10-21-17 | Kentucky v. Mississippi State OVER 53.5 | 7-45 | Loss | -115 | 122 h 22 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Kentucky Wildcats defense has been exposed in SEC play because of a weak run defense. Mississippi State plays at a quick tempo and they can break a lot of big running plays. Look for Nick Fitzgerald to have a big game here. The Kentucky offense has a nice balanced attack, and I believe Mississippi State's defense is a bit overvalued right now. Last year's game sailed over the total and I see no reason to believe this will be any different. Look for big plays from both teams in this one. Take the over. |
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10-21-17 | Buffalo v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5 | 14-24 | Win | 100 | 45 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Buffalo is starting their third string quarterback in this one. Miami (Ohio) is without starting quarterback Gus Ragland. Billy Bahl is a big downgrade from Ragland. Vantrease gets the start for Buffalo with Anderson and Jackson expected to miss this game. Expect both teams to be far more cautious with their play calling here. These aren't explosive offenses to begin with, and I expect even less big plays with untested quarterbacks in the game. Look for the defenses to be geared to stop the run, and the run is likely to come often given the quarterback situation. I expect a sloppy low scoring contest. Take the under. |
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10-21-17 | Idaho v. Missouri OVER 62 | 21-68 | Win | 100 | 118 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Missouri is pushing the pace more again. After not play quite as quick for a couple games, the Tigers have been the fastest paced team on offense in the country in their last two games. Missouri's offense is starting to get more efficient, and this Idaho defense shouldn't be able to slow them down much at all. Idaho has a good quarterback and should be able to complete some big plays against a weak Missouri secondary. Missouri has allowed a minimum of 31 points in every game this year, including a win over Missouri State 72-43 in the season opener. Look for Missouri to run it up with a big number and Idaho to score a solid amount as well. Take the over. |
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10-21-17 | Iowa v. Northwestern UNDER 47 | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 1 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Early Bird Special* Iowa is a team that relies heavily on the running game. That plays into the strength of the Northwestern defense. The Wildcats are allowing only 3.44 yards per carry despite facing some good rushing attacks this year. Northwestern's offense has been throwing it a lot more often this year. Justin Jackson is banged up and that is slowing down the offense a lot. The offensive line is a major problem for Northwestern. Look for Iowa to get a lot of pressure on Thorson here. The wild card here is the weather. The forecast calls for 15 to 20 mph winds through this game, which makes both passing attacks have a much harder time. Wind is your best friend as an under bettor. The under is 35-15-1 in Northwestern's last 51 home games. Take the under here. |
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10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas +7 | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 19 h 6 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Sharp Money 100% Angle Side * The Oklahoma State Cowboys are the public side here. The Texas Longhorns are the side the sharps are on. I won't pretend the public is always wrong and the sharps are always right. That certainly isn't the case. Still, I'd prefer to be on the sharp side. Tom Herman is a whopping 12-0 ATS in his last 12 games as an underdog if you count his time at Ohio State as an offensive coordinator. He is 6-0 ATS as an underdog as a head coach. The guy excels as an underdog and makes his team believe they can win against teams with equal or better talent. Oklahoma State has a great offense, but I still question their defense. I like Texas' offense a good amount, and I think Ehlinger is turning into a tremendous playmaker for them. He isn't listed on the injury report, and all the beat writers I've read expect him to start at quarterback here. I think Texas at home makes things difficult on Oklahoma State. I expect a close game all the way. Take Texas. |
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10-20-17 | Colorado State -6.5 v. New Mexico | 27-24 | Loss | -115 | 121 h 7 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Friday Night Lights MONEY* The Colorado State Rams offense is the best in the Mountain West Conference. Nick Stevens is a very solid quarterback. Gallup is the best receiver in the conference, and he is one of the best in the country. New Mexico's pass defense is a major problem. The Lobos haven't played many prolific passing attacks this year, so their numbers aren't as bad as they will finish. Look at what Fresno State did to them on Saturday night though. Fresno State averaged 13.0 yards per pass attempt. Fresno isn't a great passing team. Boise State threw for 7.2 yards per attempt. New Mexico State threw for 7.0 per attempt. New Mexico is completely reliant on being able to run the ball. If they get behind as I expect they will in this one, they aren't a team who can play from behind well at all. They have no reliable passers. Colorado State ran for more than 400 yards on New Mexico last year as well, so the running game is a great option for the Rams also. The Rams are 20-8 ATS in their last 28 road games. They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 conference games. I'll lay the points here. Take Colorado State. |
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10-15-17 | Packers v. Vikings +3.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Undervalued ATS WINNER* The Green Bay Packers are coming off a national tv win over the Dallas Cowboys. Public perception of the Packers have gotten too high after that game. This is still a Packers team with a ton of key injuries. Aaron Rodgers is as good as ever, but the rest of the roster is awfully shorthanded. The Minnesota Vikings have a really good home field advantage. In fact, the Vikings are 24-8 ATS in their last 32 home games. The Vikings are much better in the trenches than the Packers, and most NFL games are won in the trenches. Look for the Vikings defense to make some key plays in this one. Case Keenum has been decent as the Vikings' quarterback, and I think the Vikings have a very underrated coaching staff. Grab the points with the home team. Take Minnesota. |
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10-15-17 | 49ers v. Redskins OVER 45.5 | 24-26 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL 100% Angle SMASHER* The Washington Redskins' offense is very balanced this year. Kirk Cousins has upped his play this season, and I think it's largely because of an improved supporting cast. The 49ers defense has typically played well at home but very poorly on the road. San Francisco is weak in the secondary, and the Redskins have plenty of weapons to take advantage of that weakness. I'm not convinced the Washington defense is all that good, and San Francisco's offense has shown glimpses of their potential. Look for them to air it out here and complete some big plays. The over is 7-0 in the Redskins' last 7 following an ATS loss. The over is 4-0 in the 49ers last 4 during Week 6 of the season. An 11-0 angle. Take the over. |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4 | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 14 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Bookie CRUSHER* The Detroit Lions enter this game with a bunch of key injuries. Matthew Stafford has been playing well, but he is badly banged up now. Expect him to try to play but he will have a hard time playing up to his full potential. New Orleans comes off a bye week, and that helped them enter this game much healthier than the Lions. Drew Brees has always been great at home, and I don't think this Lions' defense is good enough to slow down New Orleans very often. The Saints' defense is far from top notch, but they are certainly better than they were in past years. With the Lions being very reliant on the passing game, expect the Saints to get pressure on Stafford. The Saints are 21-5 ATS in their last 26 games versus a team with a winning road record. The Saints are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 following a bye week. Take New Orleans. |
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10-14-17 | Boise State v. San Diego State -7 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 130 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on San Diego State* The San Diego State Aztecs are extremely well-coached. I don't think Bryan Harsin is a very good coach. Boise State has consistently fallen off little by little since Harsin has taken over. Boise State's offense ranks 108th in the nation in yards per play at 4.97. The Broncos defense has been pretty good against the run, but I think San Diego State's offensive front and Penny in the backfield will have success against them. Boise State hasn't been good when they play against quality competition. The Broncos are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games vs. a team with a winning record. San Diego State has been great in Mountain West play. The Aztecs are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 Mountain West games. I'll lay the touchdown with the much better team that has a coaching edge. Take San Diego State. |
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10-14-17 | Nevada v. Colorado State OVER 64 | 42-44 | Win | 100 | 79 h 20 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Colorado State's offense is one of the best in the country when it comes to efficiency. Inside Mountain West play, there aren't going to be many defenses that can slow them down. They are averaging 6.9 yards per play in their last three games, which is good for 10th best in the nation. Nevada's defense ranks 100th in the nation in yards per play allowed at 6.2. Colorado State's defense isn't much better at 5.8 per play allowed. Nevada ranks in the top ten in the country in fastest tempo on offense this year. Colorado State's pace rank is almost exactly the average in the nation. I expect Colorado State to get a lead here with big plays and Nevada to be forced to play extremely quick to try to get back in the game. Look for plenty of explosive plays and uptempo offense. Take the over. |
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10-14-17 | New Mexico v. Fresno State OVER 52.5 | 0-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Mexico Lobos run a unique option offense. New Mexico always ranks near the top of college football in yards per carry. They had extra time to prepare for this game, and in their last contest they average 8.85 yards per carry. Expect some more explosive runs against a Fresno State defense that isn't accustomed to defending the option.  Fresno State is looking to play faster under their new coaching staff. This offense is clearly improved and the weakness of the New Mexico defense is their secondary. Look for Fresno State to take advantage of that. This total is set relatively low, and I see value on the over. Take the over. |
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10-14-17 | Ohio State v. Nebraska UNDER 58.5 | 56-14 | Loss | -110 | 41 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Ohio State Buckeyes defense has been dominant of late. This defensive line is one of the best in the country, and they are causing some major problems for opponents. I expect them to be in the Nebraska backfield frequently here. J.T. Barrett has been inconsistent this year, and this is a spot where he has some factors working against him. Nebraska's defense should be fired up to make a better showing after losing 62-3 to Ohio State last year in Columbus. Another major factor here is the weather. The wind is expected to be blowing at a sustained 20 mph during this game. That's plenty to make it very hard to throw accurate passes. Tanner Lee isn't very good, and the weather will make Nebraska even more one dimensional. Ohio State's secondary should give him plenty of trouble too. I had this one projected at 55 before accounting for the weather, and the sustained winds of 20 mph are certainly worth at least 3 points on the total making this one quite a bit off my projection now. The under is 7-2 in Nebraska's last 9 home games. Take the under. |
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10-14-17 | UTSA v. North Texas +2.5 | 26-29 | Win | 100 | 19 h 27 m | Show | |
* 3 Star Play on North Texas* I'm impressed with the job Seth Littrell is doing with this North Texas football program. The Mean Green led at halftime on the road against Iowa. The biggest improvements for this team have been on the defensive end. North Texas will have the advantage when it comes to their defensive front against UTSA's offensive line. The UTSA offensive line is shorthanded right now due to some significant injuries. UTSA has a solid pass defense, but their run defense has been exploited in recent games. North Texas has two underrated running backs and I expect them to be able to run the football in this contest. North Texas is coming off a bye week and I have a solid system for teams coming off a bye week. The system is as follows: Back a team that has had 14 days off. Their opponent played last weekend. The team is an underdog of 24 points or fewer. Their opponent has a win percentage of 59% or higher. The team must average at least 3.80 yards per carry. This system is 129-76 ATS in the last 10 years. That's 63% ATS. Take North Texas. |
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10-14-17 | UTEP +23 v. Southern Miss | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on UTEP* The UTEP Miners are clearly a bad team, but I think this is too many points. In their last 2 games, UTEP has shown some heart. UTEP lost by only one point last weekend against Western Kentucky. That's important because it was Mike Price's first game as UTEP's interim coach. This team has some talent and if they continue to play hard, there may be some value on them going forward. Southern Miss picked up a nice road win at UTSA last weekend. Next week, Southern Miss plays Louisiana Tech. This game is the sandwich spot. It would be easy for Southern Miss to just go through the motions and win a sloppy game here. It's not an easy bet to make, but I'll grab the points with UTEP here. Take UTEP. |
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10-14-17 | New Mexico State v. Georgia Southern OVER 58.5 | 35-27 | Win | 100 | 39 h 2 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The New Mexico State Aggies rank 11th in the country in pace of play. New Mexico State is playing extremely fast and creating lots of scoring opportunities with their talented offense. Tyler Rogers is coming off an awful game at quarterback for them, but overall he's been solid and I expect him to bounce back against a Georgia Southern pass defense that is very weak. The New Mexico State running game is great with two strong runners as well. I think New Mexico State puts up quite a few points here. Georgia Southern's triple option attack has gotten better in recent weeks. New Mexico State can be run on. They allowed 9.21 yards per carry last week against Appalachian State. On the year, they rank among the 30 worst run defenses in the country. The over is 23-7-1 in the Aggies last 31 road games. The over is 4-0 in GA Southern's last 4 vs a team with a losing record. |
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10-14-17 | Wyoming v. Utah State -2.5 | 28-23 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Utah State* The Wyoming Cowboys have been overrated by the oddsmakers all year long. Wyoming's quarterback Josh Allen has been talked about as a top NFL draft choice. That alone props up Wyoming quite a bit. This is a team that lost a ton of talent on the offensive side of the ball around Allen. Allen's numbers have suffered drastically this year. Take a look at the Wyoming injury report, and you'll see this is a team that is badly banged up. Wyoming's defense has multiple starters either doubtful or questionable for this game. Utah State was crushed by Wyoming on the road as only a four point dog last year. I suspect Utah State remembers that game well. The Aggies have a solid home field advantage, and I think they are up against a Wyoming team that continues to be overvalued. Wyoming's two FBS wins this year are very misleading. They were outgained by almost 200 yards in their win against Hawaii. Wyoming narrowly outgained Texas State by 71 yards in a blowout win. Utah State gets some revenge and covers the short number. Take Utah State. |
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10-14-17 | Ohio v. Bowling Green OVER 56.5 | 48-30 | Win | 100 | 121 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Bowling Green Falcons offense put up more than 500 yards against Miami (Ohio) last week. Bowling Green ranks 4th in the nation in tempo on offense (amount of time between snaps). Ohio ranks 58th out of 130 in time between snaps, so they are relatively quick as well. The Bobcats defense has been much worse in recent weeks, and if you look at their injury report that makes a lot of sense. There are a ton of key players injured here. Bowling Green's defense ranks 124th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Ohio should have success both through the air and on the ground. I made this total 64.  Take the over. |
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10-14-17 | Northern Illinois v. Buffalo OVER 49 | 14-13 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 15 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bulls defense isn't all that good to start with. They have a few injuries that make them short-handed, and they are coming off a seven overtime game. I expect Northern Illinois' uptempo offense to get plenty of scoring chances here. Northern Illinois ranks in the top ten in the country in terms of tempo. Buffalo's Drew Anderson has really impressed me at quarterback. He's played better than their original starter Tyree Jackson. Anderson is more of an accurate passer who can spread the ball around. Both of these teams play at a faster than average tempo, and there are no weather concerns at all for this game. This total is too low by several points. Take the over. |
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10-14-17 | Baylor v. Oklahoma State UNDER 68.5 | 16-59 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* Baylor and Oklahoma State are not two teams that I would typically be looking to play an under with, but the weather and this high number make this a must play for me. Wind is by far the toughest weather condition for quarterbacks to deal with. Both of these teams throw the ball a lot and I expect the wind to make their pass efficiency numbers lower than normal. The forecast here calls for sustained winds of 21 mph with gusts as high as 30 mph. The Oklahoma State defense is clearly better than last year and I expect Baylor's defense to improve with a defensive minded coach at the helm. While this game will likely be fairly high scoring, this kind of extreme number is a must play on the under in these conditions. The under is 6-0 in Baylor's last 6 versus a team with a winning record. The under is 5-0 in Baylor's last 5 after allowing 170 or fewer passing yards last game. The under is 5-0 in Oklahoma State's last 5 after gaining 200 yards or more on the ground in their last game. A 16-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-14-17 | Texas Tech v. West Virginia -3 | 35-46 | Win | 100 | 119 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on West Virginia* The West Virginia Mountaineers are getting no respect here. West Virginia has a tremendous home field advantage. The Mountaineers also have a great fit for their offensive system in Will Grier. Texas Tech is a team I still don't trust. They are certainly better than they have been in past years. Still, they have played a weak schedule and need to prove to me that something is different than it has been in the past. Look for Texas Tech's defense that has been improved this year to struggle badly in this one. West Virginia is the better coached team and when I can catch only a field goal with the better coached team against a bad defense, I have to take it. Take West Virginia. |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 45.5 | 42-34 | Loss | -115 | 47 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Sunday Night Football CASH* The Kansas City Chiefs offense has gone back to being much more conservative in recent weeks. Kansas City is throwing a bunch of short passes and not stretching the field. Kansas City also ranks dead last in the NFL in terms of pace of play. The Chiefs use up a bunch of time in between plays, which is obviously helpful to the under. The Houston Texans scored a bunch of points on a bad Titans defense last week, but I don't expect a repeat here. I like Watson, but I don't think it will just come easily for the rookie quarterback. Both defensive lines should be able to apply a lot of pressure on the quarterback here. That means less time to sit in the pocket and let long passing plays develop. Both teams play slower than the league average and both teams run the ball more than the league average. Take the under. |
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10-08-17 | Seahawks v. Rams OVER 47.5 | 16-10 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL Total DOMINATION* The Seattle Seahawks and LA Rams meet on Sunday afternoon. These two both rank in the top five in the NFL in terms of pace of play in neutral situations. Both teams should keep the pace moving in this one. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play. The Seahawks are 13th in the NFL in yards per play. The Rams are 27th in the NFL in yards per play allowed at 5.7. The Seahawks are 13th at 5.2. Seattle's defense has been much better at home than on the road. This is a series that has been filled with a bunch of low scoring close games. That's why I see value on the over here. Why? The Rams are a completely different team this year. The offense is now dynamic and playing fast. Under Jeff Fisher in previous years, the Rams offense played slowly and was awful almost all the time. I believe the oddsmakers are underrating how big of a change there has been in LA. Also, the Seattle defense is clearly not as good as they were a couple years ago. Russell Wilson has more weapons in the passing game than he did last year. Take the over. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals -3 | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 40 h 42 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of Week* The Cincinnati Bengals are a desperate team. Cincinnati blew the game against Green Bay. They bounced back and thumped the Browns on the road last week. Now, the Bengals need this win to get back to 2-3. Cincinnati has a bye week next weekend, so all effort should be put into this game. The Buffalo Bills stunned the Atlanta Falcons last week on the road. They have to be feeling pretty good about themselves. Truthfully though, the statistics suggest that Buffalo isn't as good of a team as they look by their record. Other than their win against the lowly Jets, the Bills have been outgained every week. Buffalo won despite being outgained by 94 yards against Denver. They were outgained by 108 yards against Atlanta. They aren't likely to be this fortunate all the time. The public is on the Bills here. 60% of the tickets on the Bills. On the other hand, 60% of the money is on the Bengals. The sharps like Cincinnati and I agree. Take the Cincinnati Bengals. |
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10-07-17 | Wisconsin v. Nebraska UNDER 49 | 38-17 | Loss | -110 | 125 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Nebraska Cornhuskers defense has been very good of late. Nebraska has allowed less than 4 yards per play to three straight opponents. Granted the opponents weren't all that good, but the Cornhuskers have clearly improved on defense. On offense, I don't trust Nebraska at all. Tanner Lee isn't the answer at quarterback, and the backfield has suffered a lot of injuries. Wisconsin is going to do what they do all the time. The Badgers are going to run the football consistently and they are going to move very slowly. They rank in the bottom ten in terms of tempo every single year. Wisconsin's defense is one of the best in the country. They are allowing only 4.00 yards per play on the season. The Badgers aren't likely to give up very much against a questionable Nebraska offense. Take the under. |
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10-07-17 | Kansas State v. Texas UNDER 49.5 | 34-40 | Loss | -116 | 40 h 16 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB Total PERFECTION* The Texas Longhorns defense has gotten much better in the last few weeks. Texas has a bunch of talented guys on their defense, and now it appears they are becoming a unit. Texas allowed only 7 points at Iowa State last week. They took USC to overtime in a low scoring game a couple games ago. This isn't the same defense we saw in week one. Kansas State ranks 94th in offensive pace of play. The Wildcats aren't going to play fast. Texas ranks 68th in offensive pace of play. They aren't playing as fast as many expected either. Bill Snyder's team only throws the ball 35.5% of the time. They will run the ball and use the clock as much as they can. Snyder is a great coach, and he knows they are at a talent disadvantage here. They'll look to shorten the game and use up a bunch of time. Kansas State ranks 18th in the nation in yards per play allowed. Texas has been a top 25 defense in that category in their last three games. The under is 4-0 in the Wildcats last 4 after allowing less than 100 yards rushing last game. The under is 4-0 in the Longhorns last 4 after allowing less than 100 rushing yards last game. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two teams. A 12-0 angle. Take the under. |
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10-07-17 | Marshall -15 v. Charlotte | 14-3 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 37 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Marshall* The Marshall Thundering Herd have been a covering machine so far this year. The oddsmakers have had a hard time catching up with them. I still don't think they have them rated high enough. Marshall is much more talented on defense this year. Now, they get Juwon Young (Miami transfer) back after a four game suspension. Many believe Young is the most talented guy on the Thundering Herd defense. Charlotte is one of the worst teams in the country. Charlotte managed to pull off a stunning upset at Marshall last year, and I believe that will keep Marshall's attention as the Thundering Herd look for revenge. Two years ago, Marshall won 34-10 at Charlotte. Marshall has huge advantages in the trenches, and they have pass catchers that Charlotte should have no answer for. Take Marshall. |
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10-07-17 | Minnesota v. Purdue UNDER 46.5 | 17-31 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota Golden Gophers only throw the ball on 31% of their plays on offense. Minnesota is going to ground and pound here, and the Golden Gophers don't move quickly either. How slow are they? Minnesota is taking the second most amount of time between snaps (only Army is moving slower). The Golden Gophers will slow this game down. Purdue has been much improved this year, and they had extra time to prepare for this game. I think that helps them most on the defensive end here. On the other side, P.J. Fleck was extremely disappointed in his team's defensive effort last week against Maryland. They should be better here. A major factor in this play is the weather. The weather is calling for a 50% chance of showers with sustained winds of 20 to 25 mph and gusts of 30 mph in this game. That's some very unfavorable conditions for scoring. Take the under. |
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10-07-17 | Air Force v. Navy UNDER 53 | Top | 45-48 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 33 m | Show |
*5 Star TOP Total of the Week* Air Force and Navy run the same triple option attack. That gives the defense a massive advantage in this matchup. They practice against it every day. Usually when these teams play against a normal opponent, the defenses aren't well prepared to stop the option. In this game, both teams know their assignments really well. Both teams run almost every single play, and the clock will be ticking away quickly here. Take the under big. |
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10-07-17 | Kent State v. Northern Illinois UNDER 49 | 3-24 | Win | 100 | 37 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather in DeKalb will be a big problem here. Northern Illinois has been throwing the football more often than normal this year, but they'll have to go back toward the ground game here. Kent State has wanted to throw more with Bollas at quarterback, but they'll be back to running a bunch with these conditions. How bad will the weather be? The forecast calls for sustained winds of 22 mph throughout the game with gusts up to 30 mph. That's enough to completely change game plans. Nothing helps an under more than heavy winds. Kent State is 127th in the nation in total offense. The Golden Flashes haven't scored more than 13 points in a game this year against an FBS opponent. They have scored 3, 3, and 0 in three of the contests. They'll face a Northern Illinois defense that ranks fifth in the nation in yards per play allowed so far this year. Can Kent top the 10 point mark here? I wouldn't count on it. The Kent State defense isn't as bad as it has looked. Kent State was torched by Clemson and Louisville. The under is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings between these two at Northern Illinois. Take the under. |
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10-07-17 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse OVER 61 | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 36 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Pitt Panthers pass defense has been atrocious the last two years. Pittsburgh allowed Oklahoma State to score 49 points and throw more than 400 yards in the first half alone earlier this year. I'm not suggesting Syracuse's offense is as good as Oklahoma State's, but the Orange will play very fast and throw the ball around a bunch. Last year, the final score when these two met was 76-61. Pitt has 644 yards of offense and Syracuse had 668 yards of offense. Because Pittsburgh has played some teams that slow the game down of late (Rice, Georgia Tech) that has lowered this number. Max Browne threw the ball well last week, and this Syracuse defense is really bad. With a bunch of possessions for both teams, I'm taking the over in this one. Take the over. |
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10-07-17 | Penn State v. Northwestern UNDER 53 | 31-7 | Win | 100 | 56 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions haven't allowed more than 352 yards in a game so far this year. This Penn State defensive front is aggressive, and they get into the backfield often. They have 45 tackles for a loss so far this year, which is good for third in the country. Northwestern's offensive front allowed 8 sacks against Wisconsin last week, and the Wildcats have a bad combination of an offensive line that is very weak and a quarterback that holds the ball too long. That should be a problem again here. Northwestern's defense has been solid this year, and the Wildcats have typically played Penn State tough, especially in Evanston. The weather is a major reason for me wanting the under in this game. The forecast calls for 20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30 mph. Those kinds of winds are definitely a big positive for the under. There is a chance of showers throughout this game as well. Take the under. |
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10-05-17 | Louisville v. NC State +4.5 | 25-39 | Win | 100 | 41 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on NC State* The NC State Wolfpack have a very talented defensive line. For much of the season they have underachieved, but I think this is a good spot for them to shine. I expect the Wolfpack to be in the backfield a lot and make Lamar Jackson uncomfortable on a decent percentage of his dropbacks. Louisville was thumped by Clemson at home. Louisville narrowly beat Purdue on a neutral field. The Cardinals crushed Kent State and Murray State, but that did nothing for them. It actually likely hurts them since they will face talent that is so much better than they have faced in several weeks. NC State remembers the thumping they took at the hands of Louisville last year. This NC State team is much better than last year's version. Finley and the offense have been consistently good. The defensive front seven is very good. Louisville is 0-5 ATS in their last 5 vs. a team with a winning record. The Cardinals rely far too much on one guy on offense (though he is obviously very good), and the defense is less dominant this year. This should be a great home field advantage in a stand alone night game on TV as well. Take NC State. |
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10-01-17 | Giants +3 v. Bucs | 23-25 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The New York Giants were 11-5 last year. Yes, this team is worse than it was last year, but it isn't as much worse as most people think right now. Also, I believe this team has plenty of pride, and that started to show at the end of the game against the Eagles when the offense showed up in fourth quarter. Odell Beckham Jr. is finally starting to get pretty healthy. That makes a world of difference for this offense. Tampa Bay's defense is badly banged up right now as well. The Bucs will be without star linebacker Lavonte David. Gerald McCoy and Brent Grimes will both try to play, but they are less than 100 percent. Safety T.J. Ward is doubtful for this one. Jameis Winston makes some terrible decisions with the football, and this Giants secondary is very good. Don't be surprised if they pull off a couple picks here in key spots. This Giants defense is still a very good unit. The Bucs are 1-8 in their last 9 games laying 2.5 points or more. They are 22-45-1 ATS in their last 68 home games. Take the New York Giants here. |
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10-01-17 | Rams v. Cowboys OVER 48 | 35-30 | Win | 100 | 56 h 38 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The LA Rams are fourth in the NFL in tempo. I really like the way this new offense is working, and they are able to take advantage of Jared Goff's strengths in this new system. It's clear that Jeff Fisher and the previous coaching staff were holding Goff back. The Rams have some good weapons on offense in Watkins, Kupp, and Todd Gurley in the backfield. The Rams are second in the NFL in yards per play on the year at 6.6 (behind only Kansas City). Dallas is middle of the pack in the offensive stats so far this year, but they have faced three top ten defenses so far this year. The Rams are still transitioning over to a new system, and it is clear that they aren't quite ready for this yet. Dallas plays at an average tempo, while the Rams rank fourth in the NFL in pace. This will be the best offense the Cowboys have played so far this year. I see both teams scoring quite a few here. Take the over. |
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10-01-17 | Panthers v. Patriots -9 | 33-30 | Loss | -105 | 33 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Patriots* I don't like laying this many points in the NFL very often, but I think this is a good spot. The Carolina Panthers offense is a hot mess right now. Cam Newton isn't 100 percent, and the team has flat out told him not to run. That limits him quite a bit. Greg Olson being out is a big hit to the offense, and Kelvin Benjamin is expected to play, but he isn't 100 percent either. Carolina's offense has looked miserable in two straight games. The fact that they were stopped cold at home by the worst defense in the NFL (Saints) last week was alarming. New England is coming off a very close call. In fact, it was a game at home against Houston that they probably should have lost. Don't expect the Patriots to come out slow in this one. The Panthers were in the Super Bowl a couple years ago, and I think they'll have the Patriots full attention here. In non-division games in week four in the last ten years, favorites of 7.5 points or more are 21-10 ATS. The Patriots are in that spot here. I think we can count on the Patriots to put up 30 points or so here. Can the Panthers get to 21? I wouldn't count on it. Take New England. |
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