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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-06-22 | Chargers v. Falcons OVER 48.5 | 20-17 | Loss | -110 | 131 h 16 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The LA Chargers have played at the fastest pace of any team in the NFL so far this year. The Chargers are also dead last in run defense allowing 5.7 yards per carry on the season. That's important here since Atlanta runs the ball so often and is a team with explosiveness in the run game. Atlanta's secondary is a mess right now. Heyward on injured reserve is crucial since he is their best corner. Terrell might come back here, but he has graded out very poorly this season. The team is extremely thin in the secondary. The Chargers are starting to get slightly healthier in the passing game too. The Chargers have had 3 of their last 4 games finish at 58 points or higher. Atlanta has had their last two games go to 52 points (45 in the first half against the Bengals) and 71 points (against the Panthers who are weak offensively). I think this total is several points too low. Take the over. |
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11-06-22 | Bills v. Jets UNDER 46 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 35 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Buffalo Bills defense has been underrated by nearly everyone. Buffalo of course has a strong offense, but the defense has been the better unit so far this year. Buffalo hasn't allowed more than 21 points in a game this year. Buffalo is giving up an average of just 14.0 points per game. Wilson and the Jets aren't an offense I trust against anyone right now. Wilson is one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL, and he doesn't even have his security blanket in Breece Hall anymore. Hall going down with an injury was a massive loss for this Jets offense. The Jets have scored just 16 and 17 points in their last two games. The weather calls for a little wind here (10-15 mph). Divisional unders with wind of 10 mph or more have gone 57% to the under in the last 15 years. This one fits the system. I don't see the Jets scoring much here, but the Jets defense has played pretty well this year. Gardner is a tremendous addition in the secondary. Take the under. |
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11-06-22 | Panthers v. Bengals OVER 42.5 | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 35 h 1 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have cluster injuries in the secondary. Awuzie is the leader of the secondary and him being out for the year is a massive loss for this Bengals team. Now Mike Hilton is also out with an injury. Backup cornerback Tre Flowers is doubtful since he missed all week of practice (he could still play). The Bengals are even activating a practice squad cornerback for this game. PJ Walker has looked much better the last couple games. DJ Moore is an elite receiver and I expect him to get open deep multiple times against this Bengals secondary. The Bengals pass rush is also subpar, so I think Walker has some time to throw here. Joe Burrow and the Bengals offense should look much better than it did last game in Cleveland. Even without Chase, the Bengals have plenty of weapons on offense to be solid. The Panthers pass rush isn't as good as the Browns either. Look for Burrow to have a bounce back game here and hit some big gainers. I still view Burrow as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. If he is given some time here, he can get it done. Take the over. |
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11-05-22 | Troy v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 43 | 23-17 | Win | 100 | 39 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Troy Trojans have the best defensive line in the Sun Belt. Troy is 13th in the nation in YPC allowed. They are also 18th in explosiveness allowed on defense, so they don't give up big plays very often. Louisiana has relied on big plays to score this year. The Ragin' Cajuns are just 112th in the nation in success rate on offense. They don't have the strong running game they have had in recent years. The Troy offense isn't good at all. They have been running the ball more lately, but they are averaging only 2.75 ypc. The Louisiana secondary is top 15 in PFF coverage grade rankings. Troy's pace of play has slowed down drastically in conference play. They are using more than 30 seconds between snaps and they have slowed their pace down more than 2 seconds compared to their average pace in the non-conference. Louisiana has seen 4 of its 8 games finish with 38 total points or fewer. Troy has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 37 points or fewer. Take the under here. |
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11-05-22 | Marshall v. Old Dominion UNDER 47 | 12-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd are a really good under team. Marshall is a really poor offensive team. They rank 128th out of 131 teams in the country in terms of explosiveness. They also are just 113th in success rate. Marshall has been held to 13 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. On the other side, the Marshall defense is tremendous. The Thundering Herd defense is allowing only 4.48 yards per play this year (7th in the country). They rank third in the nation in success rate allowed. Marshall has allowed 16 points or fewer in three of their last five contests. The Thundering Herd rank second in defensive havoc created by the front seven. Old Dominion's offense has looked good in the Sun Belt action so far, but they have played weak defenses. Arkansas State, Georgia Southern, Coastal Carolina, and Georgia State are all much worse than average defenses. Now, they take on the best overall defense in the Sun Belt. Old Dominion played a couple low scoring games earlier against quality defenses with a poor offense. Their games against Virginia and Virginia Tech stayed well below the number. Take the under here. |
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11-05-22 | Kentucky v. Missouri UNDER 43.5 | 21-17 | Win | 100 | 119 h 52 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Missouri Tigers defense has been better than anyone could have possibly expected. Missouri ranks 14th in success rate allowed on defense so far this year. Missouri is 12th in success rate allowed against the run. Kentucky will want to run the ball as much as possible. In SEC play, Kentucky is running it on nearly 61% of their offensive plays. The Wildcats are also dead last in the nation in tempo (131st out of 131). Kentucky is only averaging 3.31 ypc in SEC action. Their offensive line is much weaker than it was a year ago. Kentucky's defense has been excellent this year. The Wildcats rank 12th in success rate allowed. Missouri's offense has slowed their tempo drastically in conference play. The Tigers rank only 101st in explosiveness on offense as well. The long range weather forecast calls for 15 mph winds and a chance of rain here. I like the under even without any help from the weather, but this would be a bonus for the under as well. I think this one stays low scoring. Take the under. |
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11-05-22 | Iowa v. Purdue UNDER 42 | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 92 h 44 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather forecast in West Lafayette is pretty wild for this one. A blend of three different forecasts calls for 25 mph sustained winds with gusts of about 30-32 mph during this one. There is also a good chance of rain during the game. The wind is the big deal here, but any rain added in is also a plus. Iowa is an under team through and through. This Hawkeyes defense is elite. The Hawkeyes offense is awful. Iowa plays at an extremely slow tempo. How good is the defense? Iowa is YPC allowed on the season. They are 13th in opponent QBR. Purdue is 29th in YPC allowed this year. The secondary is a little weak, but Iowa isn't a team that can take advantage of that. Both teams should be playing far more conservatively if the weather forecast is even close to correct here. Purdue is a great passing team, but their run game averages only 3.45 ypc in Big Ten play. Iowa averages just 2.9 yards per carry. Two good run defenses and a lot of running clock here. Take the under. |
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11-05-22 | Maryland v. Wisconsin UNDER 49.5 | 10-23 | Win | 100 | 34 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I have kept an eye on this game and the weather report throughout the week. I didn't want to fire on this one too early since I wouldn't want to bet under this number without the help of weather conditions to keep the scoring down. Checking from 8 different weather sources, there is a solid consensus now that the winds during this game will be very intense. The National Weather Service, which I consider one of the best weather resources out there, has upped their wind forecast for this game as the week has gone along. They are calling for sustained winds of about 25-28 mph throughout this game with gusts of 45 or even 50 mph. That kind of weather changes a game in a big way. Maryland has an explosive passing attack, but if this weather forecast is even close to right it will make Maryland more conservative in their play calling. The Terrapins aren't great at running the football. Wisconsin's passing attack has occasionally worked of late in the play action passes. Expect less of that here with Maryland loading up the box. Does the wind matter? The answer is absolutely yes. I ran a query and found the following: Games with an average wind speed of 20 mph and an average temperature lower than 60 degrees have gone a whopping 52-13 to the under in the last 15 years. That's an 80% win rate. Take the under here. |
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10-30-22 | Patriots -2.5 v. Jets | 22-17 | Win | 100 | 57 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Patriots* The New England Patriots are coming off an embarrassing loss to the Chicago Bears. New England has a lot of weaknesses, but they still have a superb head coach steering the ship. I expect a bounce back performance from New England here. This is still the same team that blanked the Lions and blew out the Browns on the road. The New York Jets are having a nice season, but they are starting to become overvalued. Zach Wilson is arguably the worst starting quarterback in the NFL. He makes far too many mistakes and he isn't always going to get away with those. The Jets have pieces to be dangerous, but they also have glaring weaknesses. This is a great spot to back the Patriots coming off a bad loss, and fade the Jets after they are feeling awfully good about themselves. Take New England. |
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10-30-22 | Cardinals +3.5 v. Vikings | 26-34 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cardinals* The Minnesota Vikings have made nearly every single game come right down to the wire both last year and this year. Minnesota has a great record, but taking a closer look at the team you can see that the Vikings have clear weaknesses. Kirk Cousins hasn't played very well this year. He is really bothered by pressure up the middle. The Cardinals have a great pass rush and they aren't afraid to blitz. I think Cousins will struggle throwing into the blitz here. Arizona's offense is completely different with Hopkins on the outside. Kyler Murray doesn't even look like the same quarterback with Hopkins off the field, but he is back now and this Minnesota defense is a bottom three or four secondary. I think this is a good shot for Murray to have a nice game. The Vikings needed a miracle comeback at home against the Lions. They had a very misleading win in Miami against a third string QB. I see this one staying very close and I'll grab the points. Take Arizona. |
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10-30-22 | Raiders v. Saints OVER 49 | 0-24 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints defense was supposed to be a high quality defense this year. That hasn't turned out to be the case. Marshon Lattimore's absence badly hurts a thin secondary, and many teams have taken advantage of this weakness. The Raiders have the guys to take advantage too. Davante Adams is expected to play here after missing some time this week due to an illness. Waller is questionable, but the Raiders do have good secondary options and I think Carr is a bit underrated by many people. The Saints offense has been clicking very nicely of late. New Orleans has scored 25 points or more in four straight games. The Raiders rank 22nd in defensive grade at PFF (the Saints are 21st). Andy Dalton has been slinging it around nicely. Dalton is capable of big plays both ways. This game is played on a fast track. Take the over. |
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10-29-22 | Coastal Carolina v. Marshall UNDER 56.5 | 24-13 | Win | 100 | 39 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Marshall Thundering Herd have one of the best defenses in the country. Marshall is 9th in YPP Allowed and 3rd in success rate allowed. The Thundering Herd are third in the country in defensive havoc created by the front seven. They should be in the Coastal Carolina backfield quite a bit in this one. Coastal Carolina has been a high scoring team much of the season, but this is the best defense they have faced on the season. Coastal Carolina moves at a very slow pace. They rank 107th in the nation in tempo. The Chanticleers run on 57.5% of their plays on the season. Marshall's offense is a mess. The Thundering Herd are 128th in the nation in explosiveness. They are 126th in passing play success rate. They will try to run it early and often. They are running the ball on 65% of their plays in Sun Belt action. This number has been bumped up enough that I have to back the under here. Coastal Carolina carries some risk to unders, but Marshall has been an under machine. I'll count on Marshall to keep this one down. Take the under. |
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10-29-22 | Illinois v. Nebraska UNDER 51.5 | 26-9 | Win | 100 | 120 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Illinois is a far better defense than many people have given them credit for being. Ryan Walters is an excellent defensive coordinator, and he has really taken this Illinois team upward with his great defensive schemes. Illinois hasn't had a game this year above 44 total points. The Fighting Illini are playing a faster paced opponent here, so I understand the total being set higher, but I still like the value on the under in this one. Nebraska's offense hasn't played a defense even close to this good so far this year. The Cornhuskers will likely have a hard time getting into rhythm and I don't think we'll see many explosive plays. Illinois is primarily about the running game. Chase Brown is really good and he'll get his yards here, but the Nebraska defense has improved quite a bit in run defense in the conference. Take the under here. |
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10-29-22 | Oregon v. California OVER 57 | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 22 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Oregon Ducks offense has outperformed all expectations so far this year. Kenny Dillingham is doing a tremendous job with this unit. Bo Nix is having a better season than anyone could possibly predict. Oregon ranks 2nd in the nation in success rate. The Ducks are averaging 7.09 yards per play. They are averaging 6.14 ypc (2nd in the country). The Cal defense that is usually very strong is much weaker than normal this year. Cal is 117th in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. Oregon should have a bunch of success running the ball. In Pac 12 play, Cal is allowing 6.08 yards per play. The Oregon defense isn't as good as it was expected to be. The Ducks are 97th in yards per play allowed. They are 100th in defensive success rate allowed. They are worst against the pass (115th in success rate allowed). Cal should be in passing situations quite a bit in a big underdog role in this game. Look for Oregon to move the ball easily here and Cal will get enough to put it over. Take the over in this one. |
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10-29-22 | Rutgers v. Minnesota UNDER 41 | 0-31 | Win | 100 | 34 h 20 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Rutgers Scarlet Knights defense has been very good this year. Rutgers has seen 4 of its last 5 games finish at 41 points or lower. The only game to go over this total was their meeting with Ohio State. Minnesota is clearly nothing like Ohio State. Rutgers is 10th in YPP allowed on the season. As good as the Rutgers defense is, the offense is that bad. Rutgers is 110th in YPP on offense. They have scored 16 points or fewer in four of their last five games. Rutgers has been held to 10, 10, and 13 against Ohio State, Iowa, and Nebraska. The Minnesota offense is extremely run heavy. Minnesota is running it on 65% of their offensive plays on the season. Rutgers has been especially strong against the run this year. Tanner Morgan is questionable for Minnesota here as well. Rutgers is 114th in tempo and Minnesota is 128th. The clock should be rolling here and I don't expect to see many possessions. Take the under. |
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10-29-22 | Arkansas v. Auburn OVER 61 | 41-27 | Win | 100 | 92 h 24 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas Razorbacks offense is very explosive. They just put up 52 points at BYU. Arkansas is elite in the running game, and that will be a big problem. The Auburn run defense is 97th out of 131 teams in the country in rushing play success rate allowed. Auburn is allowing 5.4 yards per carry in SEC action. KJ Jefferson is good enough in the passing game to keep Auburn honest in the secondary as well. Auburn's offense has been far more explosive than most would expect. The Tigers rank 4th in the country in explosiveness. The Tigers have a great weapon in Tank Bigsby. Arkansas has virtually no shot at stopping him. The Razorbacks run defense is 122nd in the country in rushing defense success rate allowed. Ashford has been decent at quarterback for Auburn. He is capable of big plays either way. He could throw a pick six or he could hit a deep pass. Arkansas is 128th in explosiveness allowed. Arkansas pushes the pace in a big way. The Razorbacks are 16th in pace of play in the country. I expect a lot of big plays in a tight high scoring contest. Take the over. |
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10-23-22 | Seahawks v. Chargers OVER 50 | 37-23 | Win | 100 | 39 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled badly against the Denver Broncos last game, but the Broncos defense is excellent. The Chargers have a lot of injuries and that has led to them being weaker than expected. Still, this is a team with good skill position talent and they play very quickly. In neutral play situations, the Chargers are first in the NFL in tempo. The Seattle Seahawks defense looked good last weekend against Arizona. I'm still not convinced they are a good defense though. For the season overall, Seattle is 30th out of 32 teams in yards per play allowed. The Seahawks have given up 27 points or more in 4 of their last 5 games. The LA Chargers defense is just 26th out of 32 teams in YPP allowed. Seattle's offense has been much better than expected with Geno Smith playing some excellent football at quarterback. He has good wide receivers and the Chargers secondary is below average. I think both teams do their fair share of scoring here. Take the over. |
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10-23-22 | Jets v. Broncos UNDER 38 | 16-9 | Win | 100 | 49 h 30 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Denver Broncos might have the best defense in the NFL. It is certainly a top three defense in the NFL. Denver is giving up only 4.5 yards per play this season (2nd in the NFL). The Broncos are well balanced with a strong defensive line and a great secondary as well. The New York Jets have a star rookie in Sauce Gardner. The Jets are a top 10 run defense in the NFL again this year too. Denver's offense has been an absolute mess. I don't see them fixing it right away. The Broncos have only seen one of their games so far this year go higher than 35 points total. Two of their games have gone into overtime too. The weather forecast is key here as well. The forecast for Sunday afternoon calls for sustained winds of 20 mph with gusts to 38 mph during the game. There is a 30 percent chance of showers as well. This kind of weather makes both teams far more conservative. I expect a lot more running and less deep passes. That is a boost for the under. Take the under here. |
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10-23-22 | Falcons v. Bengals OVER 47 | 17-35 | Win | 100 | 46 h 53 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals offense finally got rolling last weekend in New Orleans. Joe Burrow threw for 300 yards and easily had his best game of the season thus far. Chase caught two touchdowns. Higgins practiced in full on Friday and probably will be back for the Bengals here. The Atlanta Falcons already have a weak secondary, and now they are badly banged up in the secondary. Casey Hayward, their best corner, is on the injured list and will miss this game. Dee Alford was expected to step in and get playing time at corner, but he is now out with an injury too. AJ Terrell is playing through an injury as well, and his numbers this year have been very poor. The Bengals passing attack should have a lot of success in this game. The Bengals defense started the season playing great, but injuries are really slowing them down of late. DJ Reader is a fantastic run stuffer and he is out. Logan Wilson is easily their best linebacker and he will miss this game too. Josh Toupou is out at DT as well. Atlanta is a very good running team and I think they will break some big gainers on the ground as New Orleans did last weekend against Cincinnati. This total has edged up, but it hasn't gone up enough. Take the over. |
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10-22-22 | Boise State +3 v. Air Force | 19-14 | Win | 100 | 66 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Boise State* The Air Force Falcons have really disappointed me so far this year. Air Force is allowing 6.13 yards per play in four Mountain West Conference games so far this season. The Falcons overall are 104th in success rate allowed on defense. Air Force is a good rushing attack, but they are up against an excellent Boise State defense. Boise State is 9th in the nation in yards per carry allowed. Air Force is just third in the Mountain West in YPP on offense. Boise State looks like a completely different team with Taylen Green as the quarterback and Dirk Koetter as the offensive coordinator. Green gives the team a completely different dimension at quarterback with his ability to run the football. The offensive line has been much better in run blocking this year. They rank 26th at PFF in run blocking. This unit is likely to pave the way for success running against the Air Force defense. Air Force has allowed 4.97 yards per carry in MWC action. In the Mountain West games alone, Boise State is +3.27 ypp margin thus far. Air Force is -0.4 ypp margin. Boise State getting the points here is my play. Take Boise State. |
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10-22-22 | Southern Miss v. Texas State UNDER 45.5 | 20-14 | Win | 100 | 134 h 0 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles defense is a very good unit. Southern Miss is 19th in success rate allowed on defense this year. Southern Miss has given up only 8 plays of 30 yards or more as well, so they are also very good at preventing big plays. Texas State has slowed their pace of play down drastically this year. The Bobcats have usually been a top 25 tempo team under Spavital, but they are 83rd on the season. Their tempo they have played at in their three Sun Belt games is two seconds slower than they were playing in the non-conference slate as well so they have really shifted things down. Texas State is much improved on defense. The Bobcats are 30th at preventing big plays. They are allowing just 3.31 ypc in Sun Belt action. Texas State is a bit weaker in the secondary, but Southern Miss does have a weak passing attack. Both teams like to play slowly and I think they'll be several long drives that end in field goals here as well. Take the under. |
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10-22-22 | Vanderbilt v. Missouri UNDER 53 | 14-17 | Win | 100 | 86 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I've really been impressed by the Missouri defense in their last few games. In their 3 SEC games they have allowed just 5.21 ypp. Those games were at Auburn, home against Georgia, and at Florida. Vanderbilt and Missouri have both slowed their tempo drastically in SEC play. Vanderbilt is using 30.51 seconds between plays on average (more than 2 seconds slower than in non-con action). Missouri is using 28.29 seconds between plays (about 1.5 seconds slower than in non-con action). The tempo should stay very slow in this contest. The weather here calls for 12 mph winds with gusts of 23 mph during the game. That should encourage a more conservative game plan. Vanderbilt has given up a lot of big plays through the air this year, but the weather and the conservative nature of the Missouri offense should help. The Missouri defense has really been much better against the run in recent games. A slower pace and some weather helping as well. Take the under.  |
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10-22-22 | Marshall v. James Madison UNDER 54.5 | 26-12 | Win | 100 | 133 h 31 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* There is a lot working in the favor of delivering value on the under in this matchup. James Madison just played a 45-38 shootout against Georgia Southern. GA Southern is an extremely fast paced team who makes every game high scoring. James Madison is having a really good season. The Dukes have a good offense, but they haven't had to play a defense as good as Marshall yet. The Thundering Herd are second in the nation in ypc allowed. James Madison will move it through the air here, but they don't play terribly quickly. If they are playing from the lead late (they probably will be), they have shown to be very conservative and run the ball a lot. Marshall's offense has been absolutely awful, especially in their last few games. Marshall put up 2.5 YPP against Troy a couple games ago. They then put up just 276 yards and 4.2 YPP against Louisiana last week. They only found the end zone very late in the game when Louisiana had backed off into a prevent defense. James Madison is #1 in the nation in YPC allowed. Marshall is all about the run. The Thundering Herd are running the ball on 68.5% of their plays in Sun Belt action so far. I don't expect them to have much success at all. These two defenses are #2 and #4 in success rate allowed. This total is set too high. Take the under. |
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10-22-22 | Western Michigan v. Miami-OH UNDER 45.5 | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 119 h 19 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Ohio Redhawks have changed the way they play now that Aveon Smith is under center. Miami has slowed their tempo down to a crawl. They are using 33 seconds between snaps in the MAC contests. Miami is running the ball on 68.2% of their offensive plays. That plays to the strength of the Western Michigan defense, which ranks 19th at PFF in rushing defense grade. Western Michigan's offense is terrible. They haven't found a quarterback who is even decent all season. Miami is beatable through the air, but the Redhawks have been excellent against the run all season. Western Michigan is playing at a below average pace as well. Miami has had two of their last four games finish at 31 points or lower. The Redhawks should control the ball here and use the clock a bunch. I think this is a sloppy lower scoring game. Take the under. |
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10-22-22 | Texas v. Oklahoma State UNDER 61 | 34-41 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The weather here should be a big factor. An average of three major weather forecasting sites is calling for 18-20 mph sustained winds with gusts of 30-35 mph during this contest. That is enough wind to change the way the game is played. Spencer Sanders was playing banged up against TCU. He is tough and put in a strong effort, but he wasn't nearly as accurate later in the game. It is his throwing arm which is concerning. Oklahoma State's rushing attack is 76th in rushing play success rate. Texas is 10th in rushing play success rate allowed on defense. If Sanders isn't healthy and the wind is blowing this hard, the Oklahoma State offense is in a far less than ideal situation. The Texas offense is very good. Texas though should have a bit different looking offense with this kind of weather conditions. Ewers isn't likely to be able to air it out deep as much as normal. That helps the Oklahoma State defense a bit. Wind games have consistently gone under in the long term especially wind games of this extreme. Take the under. |
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10-22-22 | Boston College v. Wake Forest UNDER 61.5 | 15-43 | Win | 100 | 44 h 28 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Wake Forest's defense has quietly been a lot better this year. New defensive coordinator Brad Lambert has done a great job with improving this unit. Wake Forest is up to 41st in success rate allowed. Here, they are up against a one dimensional Boston College offense. Boston College ranks dead last in the nation in yards per carry on offense. The Boston College offensive line is awful. They are bad in run blocking and pass protection. I don't expect Phil Jurkovec to have much time to throw it in this one. Wake Forest will bring the heat and get Boston College behind the chains in this contest. Wake Forest is a good offense, and they do play fast. The Demon Deacons only rank 100th in explosiveness on offense though, so they aren't getting as many big gainers this season. I think Jeff Hafley is a good defensive mind, and the BC defense should have a good scheme ready to at least slow down Wake somewhat. Boston College had a bye week before this game to get prepared. Take the under here. |
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10-22-22 | Northern Illinois v. Ohio OVER 64 | 17-24 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 3 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Ohio Bobcats and Northern Illinois Huskies have the two best quarterbacks in the MAC in Rourke and Lombardi. Ohio's passing attack has been fantastic with Rourke leading the way this year. Ohio is averaging 6.39 yards per play overall. They are 31st in the nation in passing play success rate. The Bobcats have 17 plays of 30 yards or more this season. In MAC play, Ohio is first in total offense so far this season. Northern Illinois has a terrible pass defense. The Huskies are 129th out of 131 teams in the country in opponent QBR. They have already allowed 18 plays of 30 yards or more. Rocky Lombardi is back from injury, and that makes this Northern Illinois offense dangerous. Lombardi is a top 10 quarterback in PFF grade this year. Northern Illinois was good offensively without him, but they are excellent offensively with him on the field. Ohio's defense is 130th out of 131 teams in the country in yards per play allowed (7.02). I see no reason to believe they'll stop Northern Illinois in this one. A back and forth game. Take the over. |
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10-21-22 | UAB v. Western Kentucky UNDER 59 | 17-20 | Win | 100 | 25 h 12 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UAB Blazers want to run the ball early and often. It is very rare to see a UAB total set this high. UAB had a high total against a terrible Charlotte defense last week, and that game stayed under the total by 11 points. UAB ranks 124th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. The Blazers have ran the ball on 65% of their offensive snaps on the season. Western Kentucky is 22nd in the nation in ypc allowed. I do think UAB will have success running here since W Kentucky hasn't faced good running teams yet, but UAB will take a quite a while to move down the field. If they are settling for some field goals it will help the under a lot. Western Kentucky's offense is good, but they aren't nearly as good as they were a year ago with Bailey Zappe and company. The Hilltoppers offense ranks 42nd in success rate in the country. UAB is easily the best secondary W Kentucky has played so far this year. UAB is 3rd in opponent QBR allowed. Both defenses have done well with not giving up big plays. UAB has allowed only 21 plays of 20 yards or more this season. W Kentucky has only allowed 24 plays of 30 yards or more. Take the under. |
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10-16-22 | Cardinals v. Seahawks OVER 50.5 | 9-19 | Loss | -105 | 62 h 56 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Seattle Seahawks have been far better on offense than anyone expected they would be. Geno Smith's tremendous play at quarterback is a big reason for the success of the Seattle offense. Geno Smith grades out as the #1 quarterback in terms of PFF rating so far this year in the NFL. Of course he isn't the best QB in the league, but he is a lot better than expected. He has a very good group of wide receivers who should be able to get open against a questionable Arizona secondary. Seattle is second in the NFL in yards per play so far this year behind only the Buffalo Bills. As good as the Seattle offense has been, the Seahawks defense is the worst in the NFL. Seattle is dead last in YPP allowed at 6.6. Arizona has struggled offensively in their last three games, but they have played three quality defenses. The Seattle defense is a much weaker unit. I expect Kyler Murray to have a good game in this one. I expect both quarterbacks to have a big game against defenses who give up too many explosive plays. Take the over. |
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10-16-22 | Panthers +10 v. Rams | 10-24 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Panthers* The Carolina Panthers fired Matt Rhule. According to many rumors, Rhule had lost the locker room in Carolina. The Panthers are a talented defense, and I think they could give the Rams quite a bit of trouble here. Teams who just fired their coach are 17-9 ATS in the last 26 in their first game following that firing. The Carolina Panthers are in this spot on Sunday. The Los Angeles Rams are dead last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Their offensive line is banged up, and they are badly missing Andrew Whitworth after his retirement. Matt Stafford looks like he is playing through arm problems again as well. PJ Walker starts here for the Carolina Panthers. I'm not going to pretend I think Walker is a good NFL quarterback, but Baker Mayfield had been very bad as well. The Panthers should be able to run the ball some here on a mediocre run defense. The Rams aren't the same team that won it all at the end of last season. This line is too high. Take Carolina. |
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10-16-22 | Jaguars v. Colts UNDER 42.5 | 27-34 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Indianapolis Colts haven't had a game all season thus far with more than 41 total points. The first game between these two was 24-0 Jaguars. The Colts offense is a mess right now. The offensive line is very bad, injuries have magnified their weaknesses, and Matt Ryan playing behind a bad offensive line has been a mess. Jonathan Taylor is questionable for this game, and if he plays he won't be at full strength. The Jaguars defense is 8th in the NFL in yards per play allowed. The Jaguars offense has looked bad the last couple weeks. Jacksonville has been struggling with opposing defenses defending Trevor Lawrence with the two high safeties. Lawrence is making poor decisions and this offense has been very inefficient. The Colts have been bad on offense, but their defense is 7th in the NFL in yards per play allowed so far this year. I expect a tight lower scoring battle in this one. Take the under. |
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10-15-22 | Arkansas State v. Southern Miss -4 | 19-20 | Loss | -110 | 25 h 31 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Southern Miss* The Southern Miss Golden Eagles have played a much tougher schedule than the Arkansas State Red Wolves. Southern Miss has played the #58 toughest schedule in the country according to Sagarin. Arkansas State has played the #90 toughest schedule in the country. Despite playing a much tougher schedule, Southern Miss has a +0.22 yards per play margin on the season. Arkansas State is at an ugly -1.29 ypp margin. Arkansas State is one of the worst defenses in the country, especially when it comes to allowing big plays. The Red Wolves have allowed 23 plays of 30 yards or more this year. They are bottom eight in the country in preventing explosive plays. The Southern Miss offense isn't good, but I think it is at least better than it looks on paper. The Golden Eagles have played a bunch of really good defenses. Also, they have been terrible in the red zone which is likely to positively regress toward the mean. Southern Miss has just 10 scores of any kind in 17 trips into the red zone. They have only 5 TD's on red zone trips. Against a weaker defense and with Frank Gore Jr. running I expect them to look better here. Southern Miss' defense is the best unit on the field. The Golden Eagles rank 22nd in the nation in success rate allowed. The Arkansas State offensive line has been terrible all season. I'm laying the short number here. Take Southern Miss. |
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10-15-22 | Louisiana Tech v. North Texas OVER 70 | 27-47 | Win | 100 | 133 h 21 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The North Texas Mean Green play at a very fast pace. North Texas ranks 26th out of 131 in the nation in overall pace. The Mean Green have a really good rushing attack. In this case that is a good matchup advantage against a LA Tech team that ranks 127th in rushing play success rate and 124th in YPC. LA Tech has been throwing the football more lately. Their offense isn't consistently great, but they have great explosiveness. LA Tech has 16 plays of 30 yards or more this year. They are up against a North Texas defense that ranks 111th in YPP allowed. North Texas has played in four straight games that have gone over this total. Their games have finished with 86, 85, 78, and 73 points. LA Tech has allowed an average of 44.75 points per game against FBS opponents this year. The Bulldogs defense is a major weakness in their new system. Take the over here. |
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10-15-22 | NC State v. Syracuse UNDER 44.5 | 9-24 | Win | 100 | 97 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Devin Leary was injured last week in the contest vs. Florida State. Leary hasn't been fantastic by any means this year, but the NC State offense without him looked very rough. Jack Chambers played for the last 5 minutes of the third quarter and the whole 4th quarter against Florida State. That game was very much up for grabs, and NC State only attempted one pass with him under center. They went into a run only offense and played at a slow pace. They were extremely conservative. Syracuse ranks 16th in the nation in defensive success rate allowed. I don't expect NC State to have much success here. Leary is doubtful for this game and if he plays he will be less than 100 percent. The NC State defense is easily the best defense Syracuse has faced thus far. The Wolfpack have some studs who will be good NFL players in the next couple years. Syracuse ranks 112th out of 131 teams in the country in tempo. A slow paced game where both offenses should be fairly conservative. I see the defenses having the upper hand. Take the under. |
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10-15-22 | Minnesota v. Illinois UNDER 39.5 | 14-26 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 10 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Minnesota defense ranks #6 in success rate allowed so far this year. Illinois ranks #2 in success rate allowed. I think these are two top 10 or 15 defenses in the country. Minnesota is 129th in tempo. The Golden Gophers run on 65% of their offensive plays. That can lead to some very long drives that kill the clock in a big way. If they aren't scoring touchdowns, but move the ball some it can really help an under. Illinois has a fantastic defensive coordinator in Ryan Walters. I think Walters is one of the top defensive minds in the country, and I expect him to have a good game plan for the Golden Gophers rushing attack. Illinois will likely be led by backup quarterback Artur Sitkowski in this one. Tommy Devito suffered an ankle injury in the team's last game. The Fighting Illini are going to need to run the ball even more than normal here. I would expect Minnesota to try to load up the box and dare Illinois to beat them through the air. The long range weather calls for 15-20 mph winds in this game. If that does come to fruition it is just a nice bonus for a game that should be dominated by the defenses. Take the under. |
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10-15-22 | Penn State v. Michigan UNDER 53 | 17-41 | Loss | -110 | 117 h 10 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The Penn State Nittany Lions and Michigan Wolverines meet up in Ann Arbor in a huge Big Ten clash on Saturday afternoon. Penn State and Michigan both come into this game unbeaten. Penn State comes into this one with the #21 ranked defense in terms of YPP. The Nittany Lions have a really good defensive line that isn't likely to get pushed around by Michigan like most teams will. Penn State has only given up more than 14 points in a game once this year, so this is a very solid defense. Michigan's defense ranks #4 in the country in yards per play on defense. This team hasn't faced many good offenses though, so that ranking is a bit too high. Still, I don't consider Penn State a really good offense either. Penn State's offensive line is still a major problem, and Michigan should be able to take advantage of that weakness. Michigan has a new offensive coordinator, and they are playing much slower so far this year. Michigan ranks 119th in the nation in tempo. Penn State is 73rd in tempo so they are a bit slow as well. This is a high total for two teams playing slowly. Additionally, the long range weather forecast is calling for 20 mph winds during this game. I like the bet even without the weather, but that is a nice bonus if it happens. Take the under here. |
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10-10-22 | Raiders v. Chiefs OVER 51.5 | 29-30 | Win | 100 | 18 h 23 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs have a top three offense in the NFL. Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs lit up what I still believe is a very good defense in Tampa Bay last weekend. They put up 41 points in that contest. Kansas City has scored 32 points or more in each of their last five meetings with the Raiders. The Chiefs have far too many weapons for this bottom ten Raiders defense to slow them down consistently. The Raiders have a pretty good quarterback in Derek Carr and he now has a great receiver in Adams on the outside. Las Vegas has put up 396 and 385 yards in their last two games. The Raiders have a good offensive line and I like Josh Jacobs in the backfield as well. Kansas City's defense is no better than mediocre. The weather conditions for this one are perfect. I would expect to see both teams moving the ball well in this one. Take the over. |
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10-09-22 | Cowboys v. Rams UNDER 42.5 | 22-10 | Win | 100 | 38 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Dallas Cowboys will have Cooper Rush at quarterback again here. Rush has done a good job at the helm. The team has been more cautious with their offense though. There have been a lot of shorter passes and more rushing plays than I would expect to see with Dak Prescott at quarterback. The Cowboys are relying too much on Lamb at wide receiver. That could be an issue as he lines up against an elite cornerback in this one. The Cowboys defense ranks in the top five in the NFL in nearly every statistical category. The Rams offense ranks second last in the NFL in yards per play so far this year. Matthew Stafford has struggled mightily through the season. Tony Pollard is questionable for this game and he has played very well this year. The Cowboys offensive line is also badly banged up. The Rams lack secondary options for Cooper Kupp as well. I like this one to stay low scoring. Take the under. |
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10-09-22 | Dolphins -3 v. Jets | 17-40 | Loss | -120 | 115 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Dolphins* The New York Jets are coming off a comeback win over the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers led for much of the game, but the Jets came from behind to win late. The Jets were really handed that game by the Steelers 4 interceptions thrown. Pittsburgh isn't a very good team in their current state either. The Dolphins were 3-0 going into last week and then lost at Cincinnati. The Bengals didn't outplay the Dolphins by that much, and it was really turnovers that stopped the Dolphins from having a shot at winning in that one. Miami has Teddy Bridgewater going here. Is he really even a step down from Tua? Bridgewater is a top three backup quarterback in the NFL. He has Hill and Waddle to get the ball too and a pretty good offensive line in front of him. The Dolphins defense is ultra aggressive with their blitzing and the Jets offensive line is badly banged up right now. The Jets can slow down the run, but their secondary is a problem area. I don't see them stopping Miami enough here. Miami had extra time to prepare for this game off that Thursday contest against Cincinnati. A good bounce back spot. Take Miami. |
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10-09-22 | Titans v. Washington Commanders OVER 42.5 | 21-17 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 57 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Washington Commanders put up 28 and 27 points on the Jaguars and Lions in the first couple weeks of the year. They have put up only 8 and 10 points against the Eagles and the Cowboys the last couple weeks. Washington's Carson Wentz has good enough pass catchers in McLaurin and Samuel and the rest of the group to do some damage against a Titans secondary that is one of the worst in the NFL. Washington's numbers from the last two weeks mean little since both the Eagles and the Cowboys defenses are very strong. The Titans gave up 21 points even against a weak Giants offense and they allowed 5.8 ypp against the Colts and 6.1 ypp against the Raiders. The Titans offense does a good job on scripted drives because they are well coached. That should led to early points here against a Washington defense that I believe isn't very well coached. Ryan Tannehill doesn't have the weapons he has had in recent seasons, but he still has enough. The Titans linebacker unit has been hit with a rash of injuries that should slow the defense down some here. The over is hitting at a clip of 59% dating back to 2004 in weeks 3 through 5 in the NFL when the total is 43 or lower and the wind is 7 mph or lower on average. The forecast calls for 7 mph here. Take the over. |
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10-08-22 | Air Force v. Utah State OVER 54.5 | 27-34 | Win | 100 | 138 h 41 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Utah State Aggies offense has been really inefficient so far this year, but I don't think they can continue to be this bad in the long run. Logan Bonner was playing banged up and is now out for the year. Cooper Legas is the new starting quarterback for Utah State. Legas looked pretty good against a solid BYU team last week. Utah State put up 26 points in a losing cause. Utah State ranks 15th in the nation in tempo. The Aggies have been unsustainably bad in the red zone. They have only even scored a point of any kind on 9/16 trips into the red zone so far this year. A bunch of interceptions/fumbles in the red zone will do that to you. This will improve in time. Air Force is a great offense led by Daniels. The Falcons will be able to run and mix in some explosive throws against a Utah State defense that is worse than a year ago. They really miss Justin Rice at the linebacker spot. Air Force is 6th in success rate on offense, and I expect them to be efficient here. The weakness of the Air Force defense is their secondary. They haven't faced even a mediocre passing attack this year. They have faced Northern Iowa, Colorado, Wyoming, Nevada, and Navy. Utah State has the best QB and wide receiver talent they have faced. This game was 49-45 last year. I don't expect that high of a score again, but this total is set too low. Take the over. |
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10-08-22 | Ole Miss v. Vanderbilt UNDER 60 | 52-28 | Loss | -105 | 135 h 32 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as a run and gun team that would play a bunch of overs. The Rebels do play very fast. They rank third in the nation in tempo. They run the football a lot though. They also are one of the most improved defenses in the country. Ole Miss shut down the Kentucky offense last week in a really impressive performance. Kentucky scored only 19 points and this Kentucky team has a very good runner in Rodriguez and a good QB in Levis. Vanderbilt has slowed their pace down to a crawl in their last couple games. I think Clark Lea realizes his team is overmatched against their opponents now, and they are going to try to stick around by running it more and playing at a slow pace. Ole Miss will run it a bunch and mix in some deep passes from Jaxson Dart. Dart hasn't been efficient through the air so far this season. Ole Miss isn't giving up any big plays on defense so far this year. They are 4th in the nation at preventing explosive plays. Ole Miss will likely be playing from a large lead and a running clock later in the game is a plus. The under is 11-0 in Ole Miss' last 11 games against an FBS opponent. Take the under. |
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10-08-22 | Duke v. Georgia Tech OVER 53.5 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 62 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Duke Blue Devils have a very good quarterback in Riley Leonard. Leonard is averaging more than six yards per carry. Leonard also has a completion percentage of 72.0% on the season thus far. Duke ranks 10th in rushing play success rate in the country. The Blue Devils have a huge edge over the Georgia Tech run defense who ranks 119th in rushing play success rate allowed. Duke is 15th in yards per play in the country. They haven't scored less than 27 points in a game all year. They have scored 30 points or more in all but one game. Georgia Tech's game was extremely low scoring last week, but that was at least somewhat thanks to the wind and rain in Pittsburgh. The Yellow Jackets rushing attack impressed me in that game though. GA Tech had 232 rushing yards in that game. Duke's defense is middle of the road in general. The Yellow Jackets have been abysmal in the red zone, but that should positively regress toward the mean in the long haul. Georgia Tech has scored on only 10 of their 18 trips into the red zone this year. They have just 6 TD's in those 18 trips inside the 20 yard line. This is a low total for a game with two questionable defenses. Duke has become an impressive offense with Leonard this year. Take the over. |
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10-08-22 | Toledo -4.5 v. Northern Illinois | 52-32 | Win | 100 | 27 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Toledo* The Toledo Rockets have the most talented team in the Mid American Conference. Toledo has the best defensive line in the MAC by a wide margin, and that is key when going up against a Northern Illinois team that relies heavily on the run game. Northern Illinois upset Toledo 22-20 in Toledo last year. Toledo actually had 6.9 YPP to only 5.0 YPP for Northern Illinois, but Toledo was 1/10 on 3rd down and 0/3 on 4th down. DeQuan Finn was the backup quarterback last year, and he came in and provided a spark for Toledo during that game. Finn is the starter now and I think he can have a big game against this NIU defense that is without two cornerbacks and lacks a star LB to stop the run. Northern Illinois is without two of their best wide receivers due to injury. Rocky Lombardi, their star quarterback, is questionable for this game. He will either play and be limited or miss this game. Lombardi suffered a knee injury a few games ago. Ethan Hampton isn't a bad backup, but Toledo should be in the backfield with their strong defensive line in this one. A good revenge spot for the more talented and healthier team. Take Toledo. |
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10-08-22 | Tennessee v. LSU UNDER 65 | 40-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tennessee offense is very good. They have only played one good defense this year though. That was the Pitt game, where Tennessee only scored 27 in regulation. Wins over Ball State and Akron weren't much of a test. LSU has looked pretty good on defense for most of the year. I'm not impressed with the LSU offense though. Jayden Daniels is banged up, but expected to try to play through it here. The best play for the LSU offense has been Jayden Daniels scrambling and making something happen on a busted play. I'm not sure he'll be able to do that as much here. LSU threw for just 85 yards against Auburn last week. LSU is likely going to try to slow the pace of this game down. I don't think Brian Kelly wants a shootout against this Volunteers team. Both of these teams are run heavy, which will mean a moving clock for much of the game. I think this one will be relatively high scoring, but this is a very high total. A 35-24 or 34-28 type game still says under. Take the under. |
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10-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bucs OVER 45.5 | 41-31 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Tampa Bay Bucs will get Mike Evans back here. Evans is a star receiver and him back in the lineup will help Tom Brady a bunch. Tampa Bay's offensive line is finally getting healthier as well. Chris Godwin and Julio Jones are both leaning toward being able to play here but they will test things out in warmup before the game. They would be a big bonus for the offense as well. Kansas City's offense is among the best in the league. They have been the most consistent offense in the NFL the last couple years. Tampa Bay's defense is good, but the Bucs haven't faced an offense nearly as good as this Chiefs offense. The Kansas City defense is still a weakness. The Chiefs give up too many big plays and their secondary isn't deep enough. Brady should have a better game here with improved health for the Tampa Bay offense. A total of 45.5 is awfully low for these two quarterbacks with as many weapons around them as they have. Take the over. |
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10-02-22 | Browns v. Falcons OVER 47 | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 15 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* This is an early season game being played in a dome. Early season (September and October games) contests with a spread of 7 points or less either way (this one fits) being played in a dome are 225-180 to the over (55.6% overs) since 2004. Atlanta has scored 27, 27, and 26 points in their three games so far this season. The Falcons offense has been working very well with Marcus Mariota at the helm. I've been impressed with their play calling early in the season. Cleveland has scored 29, 26, and 30 points in their three games this year. Jacoby Brissett has been excellent at quarterback. The Browns have the best running back in the NFL in Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt is a great backup. The Browns offensive line should dominate on the line of scrimmage here. The Browns defense is badly banged up. Myles Garrett was in a car accident and is a game time decision. Clowney is also a game time decision. Denzel Ward will try to play, but is less than 100 percent. The Falcons defense has allowed 23 points or more in every game, and the Browns may be the best offense they have played yet (or the Rams who scored 31 points). I like both teams to score throughout this one. Take the over. |
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10-02-22 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Lions | 48-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star NFL ATS Play of the Week* The Seattle Seahawks aren't a good team, but they have played better than expected so far this year. Detroit has played well so far this year, but the Lions are much more banged up than the Seahawks. Detroit will be without D'Andre Swift, Amon-Ra St. Brown, and DJ Chark on offense. That gives Jared Goff far fewer top notch weapons to work with. Goff is a mediocre quarterback who can play pretty well with a lot of talent around him. He'll be short on that talent around him here. Tracy Walker was arguably the Lions best defensive player and he is hurt now. The Lions defense has been really weak so far this year. They have allowed 26 points or more in all three of their contests. Geno Smith has been pretty good so far this year for Seattle. He isn't a really good QB by any means, but he has good receivers and this Lions secondary is weak. This should be a close contest. Take Seattle. |
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10-01-22 | Georgia Tech v. Pittsburgh UNDER 51 | 26-21 | Win | 100 | 126 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Pitt Panthers rank 126th out of 131 teams in the country in pace of play. Pitt also runs the ball on nearly 62% of their offensive snaps. The Panthers are very happy to run the ball and use up the clock, especially when they have a lead later in the game. Pitt is a huge 24 point favorite in this game against lowly Georgia Tech. They should be in the role of running the ball and using up the clock a bunch in this game. Georgia Tech's offense has scored 10, 10, and 0 points against their three FBS opponents this year. Those opponents were Clemson, Ole Miss, and UCF. The Yellow Jackets now face a Pitt team with a great defensive line. The Georgia Tech offensive line is in trouble in this one. The Pitt offense has only been mediocre. They rank 61st in the nation in yards per play. Georgia Tech's defense has at least been very good at preventing explosive plays (20th best in the country). Take the under. |
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10-01-22 | South Alabama v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 50 | 20-17 | Win | 100 | 124 h 34 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* I really like the South Alabama defense. Kane Wommack is a tremendous defensive mind. The Jaguars are 29th in the country in yards per play allowed so far this year. They are 19th in YPC allowed. Louisiana is 109th in rushing play success rate on offense. They will try to, but I don't think the Ragin' Cajuns will have success running the football against this Jaguars front. Louisiana has been really inconsistent in the passing game too, and they really haven't played a good secondary yet. Louisiana's offense ranks only 100th in the nation in yards per play on offense despite facing a schedule of SE Louisiana, E Michigan, Rice, and UL Monroe. That's a terrible schedule of defenses. The Louisiana defense is 52nd in defensive success rate allowed. They have been really bad in the red zone, but I think that shows there is some regression to the mean coming for them in the red zone. Opponents have scored 10 TD's in 13 trips into the red zone against them. Neither of these teams really want to play all that fast, and this total is at a point where a 28-20 type game stays under. Take the under here. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan State v. Maryland UNDER 60.5 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 47 h 58 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The weather report for this game is looking worse as it gets closer. These are two teams who usually rely on the pass very heavily, but that could change some here. The forecast is calling for rain during the day on Saturday with sustained winds of about 18 mph and gusts to 33 mph. That kind of wind alone can make a large difference, and with rain combined it is even more of a difference maker. Michigan State has a very good run defense, so if there is increased running in this game it certainly helps the Spartans defense. Michigan State offensively isn't nearly as efficient when running the ball as they were last year (losing Kenneth Walker makes a big difference for this team), and Maryland should be able to at least slow them down. With this weather report just 48 hours out, I'm going to take the under here. |
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10-01-22 | Fresno State v. Connecticut UNDER 52.5 | 14-19 | Win | 100 | 22 h 29 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The UConn Huskies rank 107th in the nation in tempo. Even when they are losing, UConn is playing slowly and running the football a lot. UConn is running the football on 63% of their offensive plays on the season. They are playing with a backup quarterback since their clear best starting QB was injured early in the year. Fresno State will be without star quarterback Jake Haener for this game. Fife is a decent backup, but he is clearly a step down from Haener. The Bulldogs will likely be a bit more conservative on offense with him. The weather here calls for rain which will be heavy at times during the game. A wind of about 11 or 12 mph and gusts to 20 mph are also a factor. This kind of weather is a clear plus for the under. The weather combined with the backup QB's makes me like the under here. Take the under. |
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10-01-22 | Michigan v. Iowa UNDER 43.5 | 27-14 | Win | 100 | 118 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* I think Iowa has a top 3 or 4 defense in the country. Iowa's linebackers are elite as always, and their secondary is tremendous once again this year. Iowa was embarrassed defensively by Michigan in the Wolverines 45-3 win in the Big Ten Championship last season. This unit has absolutely been looking forward to this game to try to show they can stop the Michigan offensive attack. Michigan's offense is playing much slower this year. They have a new offensive coordinator, and Michigan now ranks 109th in tempo in the country. The Wolverines haven't even played a team with a top 50 defense so far this year. They'll be tested in a big way here. The Iowa offense is one of the worst in the country. They are 128th out of 131 in yards per play. Iowa has a terrible offensive line that is awful in pass protection and weak in run blocking. Spencer Petras is a bad quarterback, and I think Iowa will do their best to try to run the ball a lot here. The Michigan defense played pretty well against a really good Maryland offense. The Terrapins had only 5.4 ypp on offense in that one. Michigan's defense is a top 6 or 8 defense in the country. PFF grades these two defenses as the #1 and #6 teams in the country in terms of tackling. They also grade them as the #1 and #2 overall defenses in the country. The total is low, but it is low for a reason. The pace will be very slow and I don't expect many big plays here. Take the under. |
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10-01-22 | Georgia State v. Army OVER 53 | 31-14 | Loss | -110 | 92 h 6 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Georgia State Panthers rank top ten in the country in pace. They will push the tempo every time that they have the ball. Georgia State wants to run the football as much as they can, which is actually good in this case. Army ranks 129th in rushing play success rate allowed. This is a much weaker Army run defense than they have had in recent seasons. The Panthers should be able to have some success here. Army's rushing attack is tremendous. Army is actually successfully mixing in a few more passing plays than they have in most recent seasons as well. This offense is first in the nation in explosiveness so far this year. They have a whopping 12 plays of 30 yards or more already this season. Georgia State's defense isn't very good. They have already allowed 74 plays of 10 yards or more this year. Army should break quite a few big gainers in this one. Army is better offensively and worse defensively than they were a year ago. Georgia State is playing even faster than they did last season. Take the over. |
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10-01-22 | Illinois v. Wisconsin UNDER 44.5 | 34-10 | Win | 100 | 59 h 58 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Wisconsin Badgers defense looked bad last weekend against Ohio State, but the Buckeyes were firing on all cylinders and they are going to make a lot of defenses look bad this year. Wisconsin is still a well coached defense by Jim Leonhard and they should be well prepared for this game. Illinois is going to want to run the ball and get it to Chase Brown even in the short passing game. Brown is a good back, and they should get yardage here, but I expect it to be in slow long drives rather than explosive plays. Wisconsin has been a good red zone defense for many years now, and I think they can force Illinois to kick field goals. Wisconsin's offense is all about the running game. They are running on 65% of their plays on offense. The Illinois defense has been fantastic so far this year. Illinois is second in the nation in rushing play success rate allowed. They just shutout a Chattanooga (FCS) team that is actually pretty good. Chattanooga nearly beat Kentucky last year. Illinois also held Virginia to 3 points earlier this year. Wisconsin plays at a bottom ten pace in the country, and Illinois should be more than happy to run and try to use up the time as well. This game will have a running clock for much of the time. Illinois has scored a grand total of 7 points on Wisconsin the last two times they have played them. The Illinois defense has gotten a lot better under Ryan Walters too. Take the under. |
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09-29-22 | Dolphins v. Bengals -3.5 | 15-27 | Win | 100 | 20 h 33 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bengals* The Cincinnati Bengals started the season 0-2. They were beaten by the Pittsburgh Steelers at home after they finished -5 in turnover margin and missed an extra point and short field goal that would have won the game. The Bengals did win this past Sunday in New York against the Jets, but their backs are still against the wall in this one. The AFC North is a good division. The Bengals schedule gets brutal late in the season. They really cannot afford to fall to 1-3. The Miami Dolphins are 3-0. They beat the New England Patriots in week one when the Pats had three turnovers to none for the Dolphins. In game two, they made a massive come from behind effort and beat Baltimore on the road 42-38. The Ravens had 8.8 yards per play, but failed to finish that game out. Last week, the Dolphins beat the Bills 21-19 in Miami. That game was played in 100 degree heat and the Dolphins defense was on the field for 90 plays. The Bills outgained the Dolphins by more than 2 to 1, and yet it was the Dolphins who edged out a misleading win. Miami is a good team, but this is a brutal spot for them. This game means a lot more to the Bengals, and the Bengals are the healthier team coming into this game. Tua is banged up (he will likely try to play), Xavien Howard and Jaylen Waddle are questionable, and the offensive line is banged up as well. This is a white out game with the Bengals wearing their new white tiger helmets. Cincinnati's Paycor Stadium will be rocking here. I like the Bengals to be well prepared for this one. Take Cincinnati. |
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09-25-22 | 49ers -1.5 v. Broncos | 10-11 | Loss | -108 | 25 h 39 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play on the 49ers* Trey Lance was a starter at the beginning of the season, but for him out with an injury, Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over under center. I consider Garoppolo an upgrade over Lance at this point in his career. The big news from San Francisco is George Kittle is expected to play in this one after being out with an injury. Kittle makes a massive difference in this 49ers offensive scheme. Russell Wilson and Nathaniel Hackett have had a very rough start to their time with the Denver Broncos. The Broncos offense has stalled out in the red zone time after time. Denver’s play calling on offense has left a lot to be desired. Kyle Shanahan is one of the better coaches in the NFL and I trust him to have his team ready for this Sunday night showdown. The 49ers well balanced offense has multiple running backs who can beat you with a big play at any time. The 49ers have far less question marks surrounding them at this point. Take San Francisco. |
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09-25-22 | Bengals -6 v. Jets | 27-12 | Win | 100 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Cincinnati* The Cincinnati Bengals have started 0-2 and they have been one of the biggest disappointments in the NFL so far this season. Still, the Bengals have one of the most talented rosters in the league. They have faced two of the best pass rushing defenses in their first 2 games. In this game, they go against a bottom five pass rush in the NFL.  The New York Jets are coming off a stunning win in Cleveland. The Jets trailed all the way until storming back to win thanks to an onside kick recovery in the final minute. Now the Jets are feeling good about themselves, but I still consider this one of the worst overall teams in the NFL.  Situationally, this is a good spot for the Bengals. Cincinnati simply cannot afford to go 0-3 to start the season, and I would expect their best performance of the year so far. Joe Burrow has tremendous weapons on the outside and the Jets aren’t a good secondary. Take Cincinnati. |
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09-25-22 | Bills v. Dolphins OVER 53 | 19-21 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Miami Dolphins showed their impressive fire power in their come from behind win over the Ravens last weekend. Tua Tagovailoa has two star receivers on the outside in Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle. The new Dolphins offense scheme is allowing Tua to take more shots down the field. The Buffalo Bills offense has looked like a well oiled machine this season. Josh Allen is playing like a quarterback with a chip on his shoulder. He has a good offensive line in front of him, and a group of excellent wide receivers. Buffalo is third in the NFL averaging 6.7 yards per play. While the Bills have a quality defense at full strength, they are expected to be without 4 starters on defense in this game. The Miami defense is aggressive, but that should also give Allen the chance to beat them with some explosive plays down field. Take the over. |
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09-24-22 | Western Michigan v. San Jose State UNDER 51.5 | 6-34 | Win | 100 | 127 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The San Jose State Spartans have a tremendous defensive line. They are great run stuffers. That is really important in a game like this because Western Michigan really wants to run the football as much as possible. Western Michigan's quarterback play has been brutal. They badly miss Eleby and the star receivers they have lost in recent seasons. I don't trust Western Michigan to be able to take advantage of San Jose State's relative weakness in the secondary. San Jose State's offensive line really holds back their offense. The Spartans rank 127th out of 131 teams in the country in offensive line yards so far this year. They are also 100th in explosiveness, so they aren't getting many big plays. Two teams who have weak offensive lines and struggle in 3rd and short situations here. I think this is a game where even when they get into the red zones, it could be field goals instead of touchdowns several times. Take the under. |
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09-24-22 | Arkansas State v. Old Dominion OVER 56.5 | 26-29 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 52 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves have one of the worst defenses in the country. Arkansas State has allowed a whopping 14 plays of 30 yards or more already this year. They rank 128th out of 131 in explosiveness allowed this season. Old Dominion's offensive numbers don't look very good this year, but they have played a good slate of defenses. Virginia is a much improved defense. Virginia Tech is a good defense. East Carolina is a pretty solid defense as well. Arkansas State will easily be the worst defense they have faced. Old Dominion plays at the 23rd fastest tempo of any team in the country. The Monarchs should get more scoring chances here. Arkansas State is a pretty good offense led by former Florida State quarterback James Blackmon. The Red Wolves are capable of putting up a big number on offense as well, and they showed that last week against Memphis. Old Dominion's defense is a below average defense. Arkansas State's offensive line has struggled in pass protection, but ODU doesn't have a good pass rush. The weather looks very nice for this game. I think this one is a few points too low. Take the over. |
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09-24-22 | Tulsa v. Ole Miss UNDER 66 | 27-35 | Win | 100 | 76 h 51 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Ole Miss Rebels are thought of as an over team because of their pace, but the under is actually 9-1 in their last 10 games. Ole Miss runs the football a lot which keeps the clock moving. They have run the ball on 64.1% of their snaps so far this season. Ole Miss is also much better on defense than they were in the past. In fact, this year's defense looks to be the best Ole Miss defense in quite a few years. The Rebels haven't played good offenses, but it is still really impressive for them to rank 8th in the nation in yards per play allowed. They shut out Georgia Tech last weekend. Tulsa's biggest weakness is their offensive line. The Golden Hurricanes have already allowed 10 sacks this year. Ole Miss is going to be in the backfield here. The Rebels have gotten 13 sacks already this year. The tempo played here will be quick, but I expect Ole Miss to have the lead and look to be running the clock in the fourth quarter. This is a very high number. Take the under. |
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09-24-22 | North Texas v. Memphis OVER 68 | 34-44 | Win | 100 | 134 h 59 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Both of these are teams I'm looking to bet overs with throughout the season when given the opportunity. I like the matchup here. Memphis has an explosive offense led by quarterback Seth Henigan. Henigan is an underrated passer who can make something out of nothing at times. The Tigers have enough weapons around him to be very dangerous. The Memphis defense is weak, especially against the run. North Texas has a strong offensive line. The Mean Green offense has worked nicely all year. Their only issue has been turnovers in key spots that stall out drives. North Texas has 399 yards or more of total offense in every game this year. Memphis has seen the total get to 72 and 76 points in two of their games already this year. North Texas has seen two of their games get to a total of 85 points. Both teams rank in the top 25 in the country in tempo. Both teams rank in the top five in the country in offensive plays of 30 yards or more. Take the over. |
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09-24-22 | Indiana v. Cincinnati OVER 54 | 24-45 | Win | 100 | 119 h 24 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Indiana Hoosiers rank first in the nation in tempo. Indiana is getting a bunch of quick snaps off. The Hoosiers aren't that efficient as an offense, but they do have 10 plays of 30 yards or longer already this season. Indiana has also been terrible in the red zone so far this year. The Hoosiers have only scored on 10 of 14 trips into the red zone. They have a touchdown on only 6 trips out of 14 in the red zone. Those are among the worst in the country. That is something that should regress in a positive way a bit through the year. Cincinnati's offense has impressed me this year. They are averaging 7.24 yards per play on the season. The Bearcats already have 11 plays of 30 yards or more. Cincinnati ranks 20th in the nation in offensive explosiveness. Indiana's defense is particularly weak against the pass (106th in passing play success rate allowed) and Cincinnati's passing game has been good this season. The Bearcats have sped up their pace of play as well, ranking 46th out of 131 in terms of tempo. Take the over. |
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09-22-22 | Steelers v. Browns UNDER 38.5 | 17-29 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* This total is set very low, but it is set very low for good reasons. The Pittsburgh offense hasn't been able to do much of anything this year. Pittsburgh won in Cincinnati solely because they forced 5 turnovers. The Steelers couldn't get anything going against New England either. Pittsburgh is averaging just 4.3 yards per play on the season (30th out of 32 teams). Cleveland's offense has been pretty good, but they haven't played a good defense yet. The Browns are very limited in what they can do offensively with Brissett under center. Cleveland is a very good running team, but I think the Steelers will load up the box in this one. A huge key to this game should be the weather. Cleveland is expected to have 18 mph sustained winds through this game, and wind gusts of 35 mph during the game are expected. This kind of weather definitely changes the game. What does it lead to? It leads to both teams running the football more than normal and being more conservative in their play calling. That is certainly a help to the defenses. The Browns and Steelers have played many tight low scoring games against each other in the past. The weather adds in another big plus here. Both teams have weak quarterbacks and aren't very explosive on offense. Take the under here. |
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09-19-22 | Vikings v. Eagles -1.5 | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 90 h 25 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Eagles* The Philadelphia Eagles might have the best offensive line in the NFL. Philadelphia is likely to be able to run on just about everyone this year. The Vikings defense looked very good in week one, but I think that was more about Green Bay being shorthanded and playing very poorly than anything else. Jalen Hurts is a weapon at quarterback, and I expect him to have a big game here. He is backed by two really good running backs and is led by that great offensive line. The Eagles upgraded on defense with Jordan Davis and James Bradberry. I expect Davis to be a problem for the Vikings offensive line here. Perception is awfully high of the Vikings after their blowout win in week one. I think they are a good team, but they aren't in the same talent class as the Eagles. Look for the Eagles to make a statement at home here. Take Philadelphia. |
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09-18-22 | Bears v. Packers -10 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Packers* The Chicago Bears averaged 3.6 yards per play last week. They were terrible in the first half, but they were able to come back and upset the San Francisco 49ers thanks to help from the weather conditions and a poor performance from Trey Lance. George Kittle was missing and that slowed the 49ers as well. The Green Bay Packers were humbled by the Minnesota Vikings in game one. The Packers had a couple key drops that could have changed the game. Aaron Rodgers has absolutely owned the Chicago Bears. Rodgers has just one turnover in his last five games against the Bears. This is a Bears defense that is definitely weaker than it was a few years ago too. Rodgers should have Lazard back for this one, and the Dillon and Jones are both very good running backs. The Packers defensive line is one of the best in the NFL. Who has a really weak offensive front? The Chicago Bears. Justin Fields should be under all sorts of pressure throughout this game. Green Bay should bounce back nicely here in a big spot. Take the Packers. |
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09-18-22 | Cardinals v. Raiders OVER 51.5 | 29-23 | Win | 100 | 63 h 41 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Las Vegas Raiders offense upgraded in a big way in the offseason. Devante Adams is a top five receiver in the country. The Raiders now have Adams and Darren Waller as elite pass catching options for Derek Carr. Josh Jacobs is a very good all purpose running back. Carr is very capable and he should have a good season with the improved talent around him. Arizona plays quickly and the Cardinals still have enough weapons to score plenty. Kyler Murray is a bit inconsistent, but running quarterbacks have hurt this Raiders defense in the past. Murray is well known for late scoring drives when the team is down, and they are a clear underdog here. Early season games played in a dome have been good overs in the past. Specifically, early season (September or October games) that are non-divisional and have a spread of 7 points or fewer are 56% to the over since 2004. This one fits that system. Take the over here. |
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09-18-22 | Bucs v. Saints UNDER 44.5 | 20-10 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Tampa Bay Bucs have a top three defense in the NFL. In fact, it might be the best defense in the NFL. Tampa Bay should be able to get pressure in the backfield against a Saints offensive line that is a relative weakness this year. They won't have to deal with Alvin Kamara, who is expected to miss this game due to a rib injury. The Saints have really slowed down Tom Brady and the Bucs well in the recent past. The Bucs aren't nearly as good on offense now as they were in those games either. It is still Brady and they'll bounce back some over time, but the Bucs offensive line is now a weakness. Godwin is out and just about every other pass catcher is at least banged up some here. Without Kamara, the Saints have a weak running back group, but they are likely to still want to run the ball quite a bit. Look for both defenses to come up with tackles for a loss in key parts of this contest. Take the under. |
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09-17-22 | UTEP v. New Mexico UNDER 41 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 127 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Rocky Long's defense at New Mexico is a tough one. Rocky Long is one of the best defensive minds in the country. Many coaches have tried to copy his 3-3-5 defense because of how innovative it has been. New Mexico is a tough nosed defense that will make you fight for yards. They don't usually give up big plays either. New Mexico's offense is awful. The Lobos play at an extremely slow pace and they are very run heavy. So far this year, 65% of their offensive snaps have been running plays. The Lobos should end the season as a bottom ten offense in terms of efficiency, and they'll be bottom 20 in terms of tempo as well. UTEP has a pretty weak secondary, but they are very good against the run. New Mexico isn't the type of team that will take advantage of the UTEP secondary. Look for UTEP to stuff the run here. UTEP won 20-13 when these two played last year. UTEP lost their two star receivers Cowing and Garrett and they are clearly worse on offense this season. Take the under. |
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09-17-22 | Arkansas State v. Memphis OVER 62 | 32-44 | Win | 100 | 135 h 60 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Arkansas State Red Wolves had major problems with giving up big plays last year. They are back at it again this year. Arkansas State has allowed six plays of 40 yards or more on the season. They have serious problems in the secondary. Memphis is a team that should be able to once again take advantage of those issues. Memphis put up 55 points in Jonesboro last season. The Tigers rolled up 680 yards of total offense. Memphis had 417 passing yards. Seth Henigan is back, and he's an above average quarterback who isn't afraid to take shots down the field. Memphis was very good on offense last week against Navy, and I think they'll look really good again here. Arkansas State put up 50 points in their loss to Memphis last year. I don't think they'll score that many here, but the Red Wolves should be able to move the ball too and score enough. James Blackmon is capable of some explosive plays of his own, and I don't rate this Memphis defense very highly. Take the over here. |
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09-17-22 | Kansas v. Houston OVER 58 | 48-30 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Houston Cougars offense has been a big disappointment so far this season. With Dana Holgorsen being such a good offensive mind, I find it hard to believe they won't improve through the season. Clayton Tune is a good quarterback, and he has an elite receiver in Tank Dell. Jalen Daniels and this Kansas offense look tremendous. They have some real talent in the backfield, and Daniels has been underrated for too long now. This Houston defense is still pretty good, but they aren't the dominant force they were a year ago. The Kansas defense is a major weakness still. West Virginia put up 42 points in regulation against them last week. Look for both teams to do quite a bit of scoring here. Take the over. |
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09-17-22 | Ole Miss v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64 | 42-0 | Win | 100 | 62 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Ole Miss has been a good under team of late. Why? The Rebels have been running the ball a lot more than most people realize. Lane Kiffin's team does play quickly, but there is a lot of running clock because they are running the football on nearly 60% of their offensive plays the last couple seasons. With a total of 60 or higher, the under is a perfect 7-0 in Ole Miss' last 7 contests. Ole Miss has allowed only 13 points in their first two games. They haven't played great offenses, but the Georgia Tech offense isn't good either. Ole Miss picked up a lot of new transfers on defense, and so far they have been working out. Georgia Tech has been pretty good against the run so far this year. Ole Miss will get their yards on their ground here, but the Yellow Jackets have at least improved a bit on the run defense. The Yellow Jackets offense is very short on playmakers. Sims will likely be under a lot of pressure from the Ole Miss defense that will likely blitz quite a bit in this one. Take the under here. |
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09-17-22 | Tulane v. Kansas State UNDER 49 | 17-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 30 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Kansas State talked about possibly playing faster this year, but the Wildcats rank 121st out of 131 in tempo so far this year. Tulane also ranks as slower than the average team. Both of these teams like to run the football as much as possible and mix in a deep pass here and there. Those plays can be explosive at times. I think the weather forecast here matters quite a bit. There are going to be showers and thunderstorms off and on. More importantly, winds of 17 mph with gusts to 32 mph are in the forecast. This kind of weather should lead to both teams being more conservative. Those explosive plays should be harder to come by. Take the under here. |
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09-17-22 | Old Dominion v. Virginia UNDER 54.5 | 14-16 | Win | 100 | 109 h 40 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Cavaliers hired an offensive coordinator who has decided to change the way they play. Virginia continually tried to run the football last week despite being down big against Illinois. The Cavaliers are no longer the fun uptempo offense that just airs it out with Brennan Armstrong. Armstrong is a good quarterback, but there are a couple key problems for the Virginia passing game. First, Virginia's offensive line is one of the three or four worst in the country. Second, they lack playmakers on the outside in a big way. Old Dominion ranks 131st in offensive success rate. The Monarchs are a scrappy team, but they aren't efficient at all on offense. Virginia's defense has actually improved under their new defensive coordinator this year. Their biggest improvement has been not allowing big plays on offense. I see this as a game where both offensive coaches keep it more conservative than many would think. Take the under. |
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09-11-22 | Patriots v. Dolphins UNDER 46 | 7-20 | Win | 100 | 309 h 35 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Under* The New England Patriots offense was a mess in the preseason. I know it is the preseason and you don't want to overreact, but I don't like the changes in the offensive coaching staff in the offseason. The Patriots offense has been having far too many miscommunications and big negative plays. This isn't a roster that is developed in a way to get big plays on third and long. They can't get behind the sticks on a consistent basis. Miami's pass rush is excellent, and I think the Dolphins get into the backfield a lot in this one. The Miami Dolphins offense did add a major weapon in Hill in the offseason, but there are still many questions about this offense as well. How will Tua play under pressure against a good New England defense? Tua isn't a guy who likes to take a bunch of shots downfield either. The Patriots secondary is above average. Both of these defenses are above average. Both offenses tend to stay away from taking big chances. I see a lot of moving clock and the defenses coming up with big stops here. Take the under. |
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09-11-22 | Ravens -6.5 v. Jets | 24-9 | Win | 100 | 43 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Ravens* The Baltimore Ravens weren't healthy at all for most of last year. The team underachieved compared to expectations going into the season. I think that has a lot of people too low on them coming into this season. Lamar Jackson is one of a kind when it comes to playmakers in the NFL. Jackson should be highly motivated to prove himself for a new contract. He still has great tight ends and the offensive line is solid as well. They go against a Jets defense that is prone to giving up the big play. Jackson is about as good as it gets in the NFL when it comes to creating explosive plays. The Baltimore defense should be much improved this year. The Ravens secondary is very deep and they aren't dealing with the injuries they had last season. The pass rush should also be an area of strength. The Jets offense is led by Joe Flacco. His decision making is very weak, and he is clearly one of the worst signal callers in the league at this point in his career. He doesn't have many weapons around him, and he is capable of throwing a pick six at any time. Take Baltimore here. |
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09-11-22 | Saints v. Falcons OVER 42.5 | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The New Orleans Saints have a lot more weapons to work with this year. Chris Olave is a great add on the outside. He's a reliable receiver who has both speed and great hands. Michael Thomas is questionable for this one, but beat writers say he is progressing toward probable for this one. Alvin Kamara is cleared to play and he's such a great threat in both the running and passing game. Jameis Winston is back and healthy, and he is a big upgrade in the passing game from what the Saints had late last year. Atlanta's Marcus Mariota played well in the preseason. The Falcons offense was really crisp most of the time in the preseason. The Saints defense is likely being overrated by many. The safeties are down from a year ago even with Mathieu here. While the Saints defense was good a year ago, their overall numbers were also a bit skewed because of their slow ball control offense. The defense will give up more points this year. This is an early season game played in a dome. The angle has been strong to the over especially with a close spread. When the home team is favored by less than 7 or is the underdog in September or October dome overs are at 56.2%. Take the over. |
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09-10-22 | Baylor v. BYU OVER 53 | 20-26 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 45 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Baylor Bears defeated the BYU Cougars 38-24 last season. Baylor rolled up 534 yards of total offense in that one. BYU put up 409 yards of offense. BYU actually had 7.4 yards per play to 7.1 yards per play for Baylor. The offenses had a big advantage in that game a season ago. BYU returned all their starters from a year ago on defense. They weren't very good on defense though. I think they will improve some, but I don't think BYU's defense is their strong suit. The Cougars are excellent on the offensive line, and they have an underrated quarterback in Hall. BYU also has two strong receivers on the outside. Baylor's defense is very strong on the defensive line, but the Baylor linebackers and secondary are clearly down from a year ago. I think BYU can hit some big plays on this Baylor defense. Baylor's offensive coordinator Jeff Grimes has done a tremendous job putting his quarterbacks in a situation to succeed. Baylor's Blake Shapen is protected by an elite offensive line, and against an average BYU defense I think they can put up points as well. Take the over in this one. |
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09-10-22 | New Mexico State v. UTEP UNDER 47.5 | 13-20 | Win | 100 | 29 h 47 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The New Mexico State Aggies have a terrible offense. They put up just 91 yards of total offense against Minnesota last week. Yes Minnesota is a good defense, but that is still a terrible showing. Jerry Kill's New Mexico State team wants to play as slowly as possible and run the football a lot. That plays into the strength of the UTEP defense. The UTEP Miners defense is susceptible against great passing attacks, but their defensive front is excellent against the run. I think New Mexico State will have a hard time moving the ball here. UTEP just gave up a bunch of points against Oklahoma. Oklahoma plays extremely fast, and to say New Mexico State is a huge step down from Oklahoma is a massive understatement. UTEP wants to play slowly as well, and they should get their wish here. I expect them to play from the lead and look to establish the run as much as they can. This total has bumped up enough where I want to go with the under in this one. Take the under. |
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09-10-22 | Boston College v. Virginia Tech UNDER 46 | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 51 h 14 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Virginia Tech Hokies are a team I have pegged as a team to look to bet unders with. Brent Pry is a good defensive mind, and the Hokies have a strong secondary as they generally do. The linebacker unit is a major strength as well. Virginia Tech's offense is limited. The offensive line is one of the worst in the conference, and there aren't good options at wide receiver. Grant Wells hasn't consistently proven he can be that guy at quarterback. The Hokies will likely play at a slightly slower than average pace. Boston College lost 4 guys from their offensive line from last season. The Eagles offensive line struggled badly in their season opener against Rutgers. Rutgers doesn't have a very good defensive front either. While Jurkovic is definitely a good quarterback, he'll be in a tough spot here. It will be a weak offensive line in front of him and a strong VA Tech secondary against him. This projects as a game where both offenses struggle to put positive plays together consistently. I would expect them to settle for field goals several times as well. Take the under. |
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09-10-22 | Georgia Southern v. Nebraska OVER 59 | 45-42 | Win | 100 | 125 h 37 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Nebraska Cornhuskers play at an extremely quick pace. Nebraska ranks 19th in tempo so far this year. Casey Thompson has been a good fit at quarterback for the Cornhuskers. Nebraska already has 34 plays of 10 yards or more in two games. They now face a very weak Georgia Southern defense that is unlikely to be able to slow them down. Georgia Southern has decided to run the spread and play very fast under Clay Helton this year. Georgia Southern played very fast last week even into the fourth quarter when they had a big lead against an FCS team. The Nebraska defense has been really weak so far this year. Nebraska ranks 68th in the country in yards per play allowed despite playing North Dakota and Northwestern (not a good offense). The pure pace of this game makes me think both teams will have a lot of chances for points. Take the over. |
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09-10-22 | Florida International v. Texas State OVER 55 | 12-41 | Loss | -110 | 138 h 26 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The FIU Panthers won 38-37 over FCS Bryant in their first game. FIU was extremely fortunate to win that game. Bryant put up 6.0 yards per play in that game. It's important to note that it isn't like Bryant is some really good FCS program either. They lost 35-14 last year at Akron and only had 146 yards of total offense in that game. FIU has some major problems on their defenses. Bryant had a whopping 8 plays of 20 yards or more in that season opener against FIU. FIU's offense played at an ultra fast pace in their season opener. They were snapping it on average at between 18 and 19 seconds between plays. That would have been the fastest in the country last year. Texas State wants to play really fast under Jake Spavital as well. They finally have a good quarterback to work with in Layne Hatcher. Texas State's offensive line had trouble against Nevada's solid defensive front, but I would expect Hatcher to have a lot more time to throw it in this game. The Texas State defense has been a major problem for years now and I expect the same again this season. A lot of pace for a total set this low. Take the over. |
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09-10-22 | UNLV +13 v. California | 14-20 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show | |
*3 Star CFB ATS Play of the Week* The Cal Golden Bears are not a team I'm high on entering this season. Cal has the worst group of wide receivers in the Pac 12. Cal also lost their best offensive linemen, and this offense looks like a group that should struggle a lot this season. UNLV finished last year playing much better football. The Rebels have some tremendous quarterback depth, and I look for them to get quality QB play throughout the season. UNLV put up 554 yards on Idaho State in game one. They led 45-7 at halftime of that game. UNLV should be able to score some points against a Cal defense that is now weak on the defensive front and is average overall. Justin Wilcox's teams have been good ATS as an underdog, but they are 7-13-1 ATS as a favorite. Wilcox's teams are 0-5 ATS as a favorite of 11 points or more. Also, this is a game with a low total so points should be at a premium. I'll grab the points here with the road team. Take UNLV. |
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09-10-22 | South Alabama v. Central Michigan UNDER 59 | 38-24 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 5 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* South Alabama is a good defensive team under Kane Wommack. Wommack did a great job with the Indiana defense, and they have dropped off badly since her left. He's doing a really good job with this South Alabama defense as well. Central Michigan just had an extremely high scoring game against Oklahoma State, and that certainly gives me some pause, but Oklahoma State played at a lightning fast tempo in that one. Central Michigan also put up most of their offense after Oklahoma State had built a massive lead and had backups in on defense. I expect this game to play out differently. Look for Central Michigan to try to run the football with star running back Lew Nichols. I think they'll have some success, but South Alabama was good at preventing big plays last year. South Alabama's offensive line is a question mark, and the Central Michigan defensive front is the strength of their defense. Take the under. |
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09-10-22 | UTSA v. Army OVER 53.5 | 41-38 | Win | 100 | 131 h 18 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* Army games can either be extremely low or very high scoring. Why the big differences? When they face triple option attacks, this Army defense is excellent. They know their assignments extremely well and will consistently shut down those triple option teams. On the other hand, when Army takes on teams with unique offensive attacks that can beat them through the air they can really struggle. Coastal Carolina put up 38 points on Army last week, and that was a Coastal team that brought back Grayson McCall and virtually nothing else on offense. Army did put up 7.3 yards per play on offense, and the Black Knights are likely to have success on the ground here against an UTSA team that lost a lot on the defensive end from a year ago. UTSA has a great aerial attack led by Frank Harris and a trio of talented receivers. UTSA is coming off a heartbreaking loss to Houston. The Houston defense is much more talented than Army's defense, and UTSA should find a lot more receivers running open in this one. The defenses in this one are facing two offenses they are not at all accustomed to facing. Take the over. |
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09-10-22 | Wake Forest v. Vanderbilt OVER 60.5 | 45-25 | Win | 100 | 117 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Wake Forest Demon Deacons will continue to play fast on offense, even without Sam Hartman at quarterback. Wake Forest put up 44 points and averaged 6.8 yards per play against VMI in week one. They now take on a Vanderbilt defense that just gave up 31 points and 6.5 yards per play against lowly Elon last week. I think the Demon Deacons will get their points here with their playmakers at the skill positions. Vanderbilt's offense looks much better with Mike Wright running the show this year. Vanderbilt has 14 plays of 20 yards or more in two games, so there is some real explosiveness to the offense. Wright can make things happen with his legs and that really makes a big difference. Both offenses should have success in both the ground game and through the air. Neither of these defenses have been good at pressuring the opposing quarterback. Take the over here. |
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09-03-22 | Boise State v. Oregon State UNDER 57.5 | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 56 h 55 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Boise State Broncos return 20 of their top 22 tacklers from last year. Andy Avalos is a defensive minded head coach, and I expect this Boise State defense to be very good. Their defensive line is tremendous and their secondary is full of big hitters who have NFL potential. Boise State's offense is weak on the offensive line. They averaged just 3.14 yards per carry a year ago. The offensive line is once again the biggest question mark this year. They also lost their star receiver (Shakur) from last year. They lack big play weapons around Hank Bachmeier. Oregon State is a well coached offense and they are typically efficient on that side of the ball. I do think the Boise State defense is one of the best they'll see this year. Oregon State prefers to play at a slow pace, and they run the football a lot. That should make their drives take quite a bit of time throughout this contest. This is a fairly high total for a game with an excellent defense like Boise State. Totals of 56 or higher in game one are 57.1% to the under since 2006. Take the under in this one. |
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09-03-22 | Louisville -3.5 v. Syracuse | 7-31 | Loss | -110 | 212 h 43 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Louisville* The Louisville Cardinals have star senior quarterback Malik Cunningham under center. Cunningham took a big jump forward last year, and he is an excellent dual threat quarterback. He is led by a tremendous offensive line. The Cardinals offensive line should be one of the most underrated OL's in the country. They return 116 career starts, and I think they will have a bunch of success on the ground this year. They will be helped by Tiyon Evans joining the fold at RB. Louisville upgraded at RB in a big way in the offseason. Robert Anae is the new offensive coordinator at Syracuse. I think Anae is a good coordinator, but he was brought here to work on the passing game and Garrett Shrader isn't an accurate passer. Shrader was among the ten lowest quarterbacks in Power 5 in accuracy on his passes according to PFF. Will that get fixed quickly? I doubt it. Especially since Syracuse arguably has one of the weakest groups of WR's in the ACC. Sean Tucker is excellent and the Syracuse offensive line is good, but Louisville has held him at least largely in check in the last couple meetings. Syracuse is a one dimensional offense right now in my opinion, while Louisville can move it through the air or on the ground. The last three times these two teams have played Louisville has won by 22 points, 30 points, and 38 points. Syracuse has a whole new defensive line, and I don't think they can stop the Louisville ground game here. Take Louisville. |
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09-03-22 | Miami-OH v. Kentucky OVER 51.5 | 13-37 | Loss | -110 | 220 h 14 m | Show | |
*4 Star Play Over* The Miami (Ohio) Redhawks have a very good QB in Brett Gabbert. Miami has a good offensive line that gives Gabbert great pass protection most of the time. The Kentucky defense is easily weakest in the secondary. Kentucky will be exposed by good passing attacks this season. Their pass rush is also much weaker than it was a few years ago. Miami should be able to move the ball some here. Kentucky's offense is very good with Levis leading the way at QB and Rodriguez and a host of really talented RB's in the backfield. The Miami Ohio defense lost a star in Ivan Pace who transferred to Cincinnati. The glaring weakness of the Miami defense is their secondary. Kentucky's Will Levis is better than the quarterbacks Miami is accustomed to facing in MAC play, and I think Kentucky can move the ball in big chunks during this game. Two passing attacks who should have a big edge and a total that is set pretty low at 51.5. Neither pass rush is very good, so I think the quality quarterbacks will be given time to set their feet and throw a quality ball consistently. I look for both offenses to be pretty efficient in this one. Take the over. |
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09-03-22 | Oregon v. Georgia UNDER 52 | 3-49 | Push | 0 | 217 h 49 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Oregon Ducks defense actually disappointed much of last year, and even though they lose Thibodeaux I think this Oregon defense will be better. Dan Lanning is a tremendous defensive mind, and there is a lot of talent on this Oregon defense. The linebackers are superb led by Noah Sewell and Justin Flowe. The Georgia offense lost a lot. They lost their two star running backs. They went from a top 2 or 3 RB unit in the country to top 20 or so. That's a big dip. Stetson Bennett is a pretty good QB, but he isn't a star and he also lost Pickens and Burton on the outside. Georgia should be content to play very slowly again this year, and I don't think they'll be terribly efficient here. The Oregon offense will be led by Bo Nix. Nix is capable of big things occasionally, but he isn't consistent enough The Georgia secondary led by Ringo is amazing, and I would be surprised if Oregon moves it much through the air. Oregon lost their two star RB's from a year ago as well (Dye and Verdell). They are running a completely new offense. While the Georgia defense is down compared to a year ago, they are still an absolutely elite unit. They should be able to get into the Oregon backfield a lot in this one. Lanning knows the Georgia offense well and that doesn't hurt either. Take the under here. |
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09-01-22 | Louisiana Tech v. Missouri OVER 58.5 | 24-52 | Win | 100 | 90 h 4 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* Sonny Cumbie is the new head coach at Louisiana Tech. Cumbie has a history of playing very quickly, and he has said to whoever will listen that this LA Tech team will play much faster than they did a year ago. Skip Holtz's LA Tech teams have been pretty conservative offensively in recent seasons. While the running game doesn't look very good, they do have solid pieces at QB and at WR and TE. LA Tech is very weak defensively. The linebackers and the secondary are especially weak spots. I would expect the move to a quicker pace on offense to hurt this fairly thin defense if anything. Missouri will start Brady Cook at quarterback this year. Cook has some serious talent at wide receiver. Mookie Cooper and Luther Burden should be a tremendous duo on the outside. They should be able to burn the Tech secondary pretty often in this game. The offensive line is a pretty experienced solid group as well. The Missouri defense is a weak unit overall. The secondary has major questions all over the place. They allowed far too many big plays a year ago. Tech will be playing extremely fast and getting some chances through the air. Missouri's offense should be very efficient here, and I expect LA Tech to be playing quick enough to get enough points for this one to get past the posted total. Take the over. |
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08-27-22 | Nevada v. New Mexico State UNDER 52.5 | 23-12 | Win | 100 | 201 h 17 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* Two programs with new coaches and completely different schemes square off in this "Week 0" contest. Nevada had the second most roster turnover in the country. The Wolf Pack were excellent last year, but about everyone is gone from that team- both the players and coaches. Ken Wilson brings in an offense that will be far more about the running game than the passing game. I expect a slower pace for the Wolf Pack as well. Nevada has a couple quality running backs, but the offensive line is a huge weakness. I would expect Nevada to try to play some lower scoring games this year to make the transition a bit easier. New Mexico State is now coached by Jerry Kill. The Aggies have a really weak QB room. They will be forced to run the football early and often. Kill has made it clear that this offense will slow down and try to grind away games. I would expect this team to be bottom ten in the country in tempo at a neutral game state. While the defense isn't going to be good, I would expect the biggest improvement here to come in the front seven with the run defense. New Mexico State has improved depth here and Jerry Kill has some good defensive minds on this staff. This game should be an ugly one. There is certainly some risk that the defenses are bad enough that the offenses get a little too much scoring going. At the same time, the offenses want to play very slowly and bleed the clock. A ton of question marks here and I'm going to go with this being a sloppy first game. Take the under. |
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01-30-22 | Bengals v. Chiefs OVER 53.5 | 27-24 | Loss | -110 | 158 h 9 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Kansas City Chiefs offense is back. Kansas City wasn't the offensive juggernaut everyone expected earlier this year, but they had a lot of new faces on the offensive line. They have gradually improved throughout the year. Also, Andy Reid is getting more aggressive with his play calling in the playoffs. It is working in a big way. Kansas City had 478 yards and 42 points against a decent Steelers defense. They then put up 42 points and 552 yards in an overtime win over the #1 ranked defense of the Buffalo Bills. The Cincinnati Bengals have some excellent weapons on offense. Cincinnati's Joe Burrow is a star at quarterback. Burrow is an extremely accurate passer and a good decision maker. Surrounding him with Mixon, Chase, Higgins, Boyd, and Uzomah gives the Bengals excellent options on offense. As long as the offensive line can be decent, I think the Bengals can score quite a few points here. These two teams met in Cincinnati last month. The Bengals won 34-31 as that game sailed over the total. The Bengals had 7.5 ypp and the Chiefs had 7.1 ypp. The offenses couldn't be stopped. The Bengals and Chiefs defenses are better than last season, but they aren't good enough to stop the opposing offenses here. Take the over. |
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01-23-22 | Bills v. Chiefs OVER 54 | 36-42 | Win | 100 | 15 h 27 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs square off in Kansas City on Sunday night. This is the time of the year that you always want to be careful about the weather, but the current forecast for this one is for a temperature in the 30's with winds of about 10 mph. The Buffalo Bills offense sputtered at times throughout the regular season, but they did have a bunch of success against the Chiefs earlier in the year. Josh Allen is playing well of late, and the Bills have too many weapons on the outside for the Chiefs secondary to contain. Kansas City's offense has improved late in the season. It's still very hard to stop Mahomes with Kelce, Hill, and the rest of their weapons. The last couple meetings between these two have gone over the total. I think we see a back and forth affair here. There is absolutely a chance for overtime in this one as well. The defenses are improved, but the offenses are still better. Take the over. |
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01-16-22 | 49ers v. Cowboys OVER 50.5 | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 63 h 46 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Dallas Cowboys rank 5th in the NFL in yards per play. They rank 6th in the NFL in DVOA on offense. Dak Prescott has been up and down this year, but he has a stellar group of receivers and two solid running backs. The 49ers secondary is arguably the worst secondary of any team in the NFL playoffs this year. Dallas should be able to take advantage of this unit. San Francisco's offense has been good with Jimmy G under center this year. I think he is an underrated quarterback who does a good job spreading the ball around to his weapons. George Kittle is one of the most dangerous pass catchers in the NFL. The Cowboys are likely to have a hard time with him. Both of these defenses rank in the bottom half of the NFL in big plays allowed. This game is played in a dome and playoff games in a dome have been great for over bettors. How good? The last 43 games in a dome in the NFL postseason- 29 of them have gone over and only 14 have stayed under. Take the over here. |
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01-09-22 | Patriots v. Dolphins +6.5 | 24-33 | Win | 100 | 25 h 18 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Dolphins* The New England Patriots want to win this game and stay on track for the playoffs, but the things they need to happen to jump in a big way in the standings are quite unlikely. Buffalo isn't likely at all to lose to the Jets. They are a 16.5 point favorite for a reason. A Kansas City or Tennessee loss could help them as well, but both of those teams are favored by double digits. The Patriots have far more injury concerns than do the Dolphins. New England has a long list of guys questionable for this game. It wouldn't surprise me to see the Patriots rest some guys in the second half if the scenarios where they can move up aren't coming to fruition. The biggest game for them is Jets/Bills, and they will keep an eye on the scoreboard for that game. The Dolphins have shown they will play hard for Coach Flores all the way to the finish before. I expect them to do it again here. This is a game with a really low total and we are getting nearly a full touchdown. I expect a hard fought battle just as it was in week one when the Dolphins won by one point. Take Miami. |
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01-02-22 | Chiefs v. Bengals OVER 50.5 | 31-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Over* The Cincinnati Bengals have found a franchise quarterback in Joe Burrow. As long as the offensive line protects him to some degree here, I do think Burrow and this group of elite pass catchers can pick up some chunk plays on the Chiefs secondary. Kansas City's defense has clearly played better in recent weeks, but the Chiefs defense has faced some terrible offenses. They also have caught opponents when they are shorthanded. The Bengals offense is playing very well right now and they are quite healthy. Cincinnati's defense is missing two key starters at linebacker. The Bengals defense didn't look very good against the Ravens last week with Josh Johnson at the helm. Patrick Mahomes gets back Kelce and the Chiefs offense has improved a lot in recent weeks. I don't trust the Bengals defense to be able to slow them down. If either of these teams gets down much and starts taking a lot of shots and playing quickly, it will help the over in a big way. Take the over. |
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01-02-22 | Dolphins v. Titans UNDER 40.5 | 3-34 | Win | 100 | 10 h 8 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play Under* The Miami Dolphins defense has been tremendous of late. Granted, they haven't played a tough schedule of offenses. Still, they have dominated the offenses put in front of them. In its current form, the Tennessee Titans offense isn't very good. Ryan Tannehill isn't playing with much confidence, and Derrick Henry is badly missed. The Titans are dead last in the NFL in 20 plus yard plays. They aren't explosive at all right now. Miami's offense isn't any good either. Tua is inconsistent and relies on Waddle far too much. The Titans defense ranks top ten in the NFL across the board in the past five games. The weather here could play a role too. Winds and possible rain mixed with snow is expected to come in during this game. During the middle of the game the sustained winds are expected at about 15 mph with gusts to 25 mph. That will just increase as the game gets into the fourth quarter. Take the under. |
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01-02-22 | Bucs -13 v. Jets | 28-24 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 7 m | Show | |
*3 Star Play on Bucs* The Tampa Bay Bucs have the best offense in the NFL. Yes, they are shorthanded right now, but with Brady under center and still some pretty good pass weapons on the outside and a great tight end, this is an elite offense. The New York Jets have the worst defense in the NFL. The secondary is a major problem. That isn't an issue you want to have with Brady and the Bucs coming to town. Tampa Bay needs to win for playoff positioning, and this Jets defense looks like a group the Bucs could thump. Tampa Bay struggled earlier in the year on the road, but they have played better of late away from home. They won by 13 at Atlanta. They just blasted Carolina 32-6 on the road last week as well. Zach Wilson is still a mess and makes far too many mistakes for the Jets. It isn't all his fault, and the Jets need more playmakers in general. Tampa Bay's defense is very good against the run, and I don't see the Jets as able to come close to keeping pace here. Take Tampa Bay. |
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