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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-30-17 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
The set: The Giants/Dodgers is one of MLB's greatest rivalries but the 2017 season is a year in which there is not much to it. The teams are 6-6 in 12 meetings so far but who cares? After all, the Dodgers own MLB's best record (73-31) and lead the last-place 40-65 Giants by 33 1/2 games in the NL West. The Dodgers are a ML-best 46-13 at home, while the Giants are just 18-36 on the road. The Giants average only 3.92 RPG (29th of 30 teams) while LA pitching owns a 3.11 ERA and 1.12 WHIP, with both figures leading all ML teams. The Dodgers take a seven-game winning streak into tonight's ESPN contest, allowing an average of only 3.14 runs during their current streak. Los Angeles is a phenomenal 38-6 since June 7! As for San Francisco, its season is lost. The Giants are 25 games below .500 and they've blown leads 28 times that directly led to a loss. They're 9-48 when scoring three runs or less. They're so far behind the Dodgers in the National League West that they're in danger of being lapped. Never in the historic rivalry have the Giants ever trailed the Dodgers by this many games. The pitching matchup: Madison Bumgarner (1-4 & 3.38 ERA) will make the start tonight for the Giants, going up against the Dodgers' Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-6 & 4.17 ERA). Bumgarner has had his scheduled start moved from Monday to Sunday, as the Giants try to salvage the finale of the set for San Francisco. The Giants had lost each of Bumgarner's first six starts this year before he helped them roll past Pittsburgh in his previous outing 11-3 on Tuesday, allowing just one run in five innings. The four-time All-Star and former World Series MVP sat out from late-April to mid-July with a shoulder injury. He has 42 strikeouts against just eight walks in 2017 and he's posted a 2.89 ERA through his first four road outings. Bumgarner is 14-9 with a 2.72 ERA in 26 career starts against the Dodgers (Giants are 15-11). Ryu has failed to get through six innings in five straight starts but allowed exactly two runs in each of the last four to help the Dodgers go 3-1. He limited the Giants to a run in six innings at San Francisco earlier this year and is 4-5 with a 3.79 ERA in 10 career matchups (Dodgers are 5-5). The pick: Bumgarner's been moved up in a an effort to help the Giants avoid a sweep against their long-time hated rival and I expect an excellent effort from him. As for Ryu, he's allowed exactly two runs in each of his last four outings, so the Under is a 10* play. |
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07-30-17 | Indians -182 v. White Sox | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -182 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The AL Central-leading Indians have won nine straight after posting a 5-4 victory on Saturday plus picked up a game on the KC Royals (Cleveland now leads by three games), who saw their nine-game winning streak end last night in a 9-8 (10 inn.) loss at Boston. Meanwhile, the White Sox have dropped 14 of their last 15 overall and at 39-62, are "closing in" on the 37-64 Phillies for MLB's worst record. The Indians look to make it 10 wins in a row and a sweep of this three-game series on Sunday, while the White Sox look to snap a five-game slide. |
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07-30-17 | Astros -129 v. Tigers | Top | 1-13 | Loss | -129 | 6 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The 68-35 Houston Astros are running away in the AL West with a 17-game lead in the division. Houston also owns the AL's best overall record (10 1/2 games better than defending AL champs Cleveland) and MLB's best road record at 38-14. However, it was the 46-56 Tigers who erased a three-run deficit and snapped a four-game skid with Saturday's 5-3 victory at Detroit. The Tigers' win leaves them 3-7 in their last 10 and 10 games under . 500 with the whispers that Detroit may be a "seller" by the July 31 trade deadline growing louder. The teams will play the rubber match of this three-game series on Sunday, as the Astros play the final game of their nine-game road trip (are 5-3, so far). |
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07-29-17 | Hamilton +13.5 v. Calgary | Top | 1-60 | Loss | -115 | 58 h 30 m | Show |
The 0-4 (0-3-1 ATS) Hamilton Tiger-Cats will look for their first win of the 2017 season Saturday night at McMahon Stadium against the 3-1-1 (2-3 ATS) Calgary Stampeders. QB Zach Collaros is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for 1,041 yards with three TD passes and four interceptions. Hamilton ranks 9th in passing yards and 8th in rushing yards, leaving them 9th overall at 310.2 YYPG, as well as being the league's lowest scoring team at 22.3 PPG. If the team's lack of offense weren't enough, Hamilton is allowing 35.2 points (8th) and 488.2 yards per game (9th). Calgary is a solid offensive team, ranking third in both poinst scored (30.6 per) and YPG (411.4). QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 1,635 yards with nine TDs and three interceptions. Calgary's defense allows just 24.0 PPG, second-best in the league. |
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07-29-17 | Twins v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins have the bad luck to be stuck in the AL Central, as division rivals KC (nine straight wins) and first-place Cleveland (eight straight wins), are currently MLB's hottest teams. The Twins are trying to keep pace and last night's 6-3 win in Oakland snapped a four-game slide but leaves Minnesota just 5-8 since the break and 50-51 overall, six games back of the Indians (Twinheare are four back of the Royals, who own the second wild card spot). The Twins will continue their three-game set against the host Oakland A's on Saturday, a team with teh AL's second-worst record (44-59). Only the 39-61 White Sox are worse. The pitching matchup: Adalberto Mejia (4-4, 4.10 ERA) steps to the mound for KC, opposed by Chris Smith (0-1, 3.32 ERA) of Oakland. Mejia is win-less in his last three starts, despite allowing just one ER in each of the last two. He will look for his first win since July 3 tonight, making his first road start since June 28. This is Mejia's first start against Oakland. Smith remains in search of his first career win as a starter as he heads to the mound for the fourth start of his major league career (his first 63 career appearances came as a reliever). Smith has made two career relief appearances against Minnesota, allowing two hits with two walks and a pair of strikeouts in three scoreless innings. The pick: Mejia comes in pitching well and while he's struggled at home (4.91 ERA in 10 starts), he owns a 2.31 ERA in his five road starts this season. In Smith's lone home start this year, he allowed just two runs (one earned) against the Rays in seven innings. Make the Under an 8* play |
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07-29-17 | Cubs -160 v. Brewers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers took a 5 1/2 game lead over the Chicago Cubs in the NL Central into the All Star break. However, while the Cubs came out of the break red-hot (won six straight and 11 of 132, the Brewers, after winning their first two games back, would lose their next six and nine of 11. That meant that when the Cubs came to Miller Park to visit the Brewers last night in the opener of a three-game series, Chicago had caught Milwaukee and led the division by 1 1/2 games. However, the Brewers celebrated returning home off a 2-8 road trip by edging the Cubs 2-1. The Brewers have won 10 of their last 12 at home and can now reclaim first place in the NL Central with a second consecutive victory over the defending world champions on Saturday. It would be hadr to criticize the Cubs though, as they are 11-3 since the break, led by a starting staff that has posted a 2.54 ERA with10 quality starts in its 14 games since the break. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (4-3 & 3.95 ERA) will take the mound for Chicago and Junior Guerra (1-4 & 5.22 ERA) for Milwaukee. Hendricks came off the disabled list to start Monday against the crosstown White Sox, allowing one run and eight hits over 4 1/3 innings (White Sox would win, 3-1). He was lifted after 92 pitches but he didn’t issue a walk, which is a good sign for a pitcher who relies on command. Hendricks is 6-3 with a 2.80 ERA in 12 career starts against the Brewers (Cubs are 8-4), with a win and a no-decision this season (Cubs are 2-0). Guerra takes the mound looking for his first win since May 31. He's made nine starts since that last win and hasn’t recorded a quality start in any of his last five. Guerra is 0-4 (Brewers are 3-6) in his win-less streak and owns a 6.34 ERA in that stretch. Guerra is 1-0 with a 2.03 ERA in two starts against the Cubs (Brewers are 1-1), with both occurring last season. The pick: Not sure how one can back Guerra at this point and Hendricks has enjoyed his visits to Miller Park, going 4-1 with a 2.52 ERA in six starts. Hendricks is not quite teh same pitcher who led MLB last season in ERA (2.13) but he's still a quality starter, something Guerra is not! Make the Cubs a 10* play. |
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07-29-17 | Angels v. Blue Jays -117 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: LA Angels began their six-game road trip earlier this week by getting swept in Cleveland to fall to 22-31 on the road. That's not exactly news, as the Angels haven't posted a winning road record since 2014. However, Rogers Centre in Toronto has been good to them recently. Mike Trout drove in two runs and C.J. Cron homered to back a career-high 7 1/3 innings from rookie Parker Bridwell in Friday's 7-2 LA win. That improved the Angels' record in Toronto to 12-4 over their last 16 games at Rogers Centre. The Blue Jays opened the second-half of their schedule by going 3-7 on a 10-game road trip but then returned home to sweep the A's in a four-game series to begin this week. However, last night's loss is just another indication that this isn't going to be Toronto's year. Toronto has played in the last two ALCS matchups but after going 8-17 in April, Toronto has just never recovered and at 48-55, the Jays are in last-place in the AL East (eight games out) and seven games back in the wild card chase. The 50-54 Angels are headed nowhere as well, buried far behind the Astros in the AL west and 5 1/2 games out in the wild card, with seven teams ahead of them. |
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07-28-17 | Twins v. A's +105 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: There's talk the contending Minnesota Twins and floundering Oakland Athletics could be trade partners as the teams begin a three-game series Friday night. The 49-51 Twins have played 14 straight games against fellow playoff hopefuls. They are 4-10 in that stretch after suffering a three-game sweep in Los Angeles at the hands of the Dodgers. No team is in greater need of a break in the schedule and the Twins get one. Their next five games are against two of the worst teams in the West. They follow the Oakland trip (A's are 44-58) with a two-game stopover in San Diego (Padres are 45-57 ) and then return home to host struggling Texas (Rangers are 49-52) to begin a six-game homestand. The Twins have fallen six games out in the AL Central and four games out in the wild card chase. As for the 44-58 Oakland A's..... The pitching matchup: Garcia will be making his Twins debut after having been acquired along with catcher Anthony Recker from the Atlanta Braves for 19-year-old right-hander Huascar Ynoa. He'll go up against Oakland rookie Daniel Gossett (2-5 & 5,40 ERA). Garcia was 4-7 with a 4.30 ERA in 18 starts for the Braves (team was 9-9). Garcia has faced the A's just once in his career, suffering the loss last season while allowing five runs in seven innings (6.43 ERA). Gossett pitched the A's most recent win, a 3-2 road triumph last Sunday against the New York Mets. He has never faced the Twins in his eight career starts. The pick:The A's wrapped up a seven-game road trip 1-6, after they were swept in the four-game series in Toronto. They blew two ninth-inning leads and lost consecutive games on walk-offs. The team's late-game meltdowns can't be considered a surprise, as the team dealt two of its top relievers -- left-hander Sean Doolittle and righty Ryan Madson -- to Washington for a three-player package that featured two low-level minor-leaguers. Staff ace Sonny Gray could be the next to go. All that said, I want no part of Garcia or the floundering Twins, who are in a complete "free-fall' which should also not be a surprise. After all, the Twins lost a ML-high 103 games last year. Make Oakland a 10* play. |
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07-28-17 | BC v. Edmonton UNDER 54.5 | Top | 26-37 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The 4-1 BC Lions and 4-0 Edmonton Eskimos meet Friday at Commonwealth Stadium lin Edmonton. The Lions opened with a 31-27 home loss to Edmonton in Week 1, then won three straight on the road, before returning home and escaping 45-42 over Winnipeg in a non-cover. BC's QB Jonathon Jennings has completed 67 percent of his passes for 853 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions but was hurt on the Lion’s first offensive series in Week 4. He was replaced by veteran backup Travis Lulay, who threw for 436 yards and three TDs in a 41-26 road win. Lulay then threw for 404 yards (2 TDs / 2 INTs) in last week's win over the Blue Bombers. BC now leads the CFL in YPG (427.2) and is second in scoring at 32.8 PPG. Defensively, BC is allowing 25.8 points and 383.8 yards per game. The Edmonton Eskimos look to stay unbeaten and best BC for the second time this season (remember that Week 1 win at BC). QB Mike Reilly is completing 72.1 percent of his passes for 1,216 yards with seven TDs and zero INTs (over 140 pass attempts!). However, the real key to Edmonton's success so far is a defense allowing league-bests in both PPG (23.8) and YPG (333.5). |
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07-28-17 | Astros -172 v. Tigers | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros visit Detroit for a three-game weekend series with the Tigers, beginning Friday night. Houston comes to town with MLB's biggest division lead (17 games), it's second-best overall record at 67-34 (only the Dodgers are better at 71-31) and a ML-best 37-13 road record. More good news comes in that the Astros have their ace back to start the opener of the series. The Tigers, who everyone assumes will be 'selling' come July 31, checks in at 45-55 on the season, better than only the 44-59 A's and 39-60 White Sox in the American League. |
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07-28-17 | Angels v. Blue Jays -156 | 7-2 | Loss | -156 | 8 h 27 m | Show | |
The Toronto Blue Jays are coming off a four-game sweep of the Oakland A's, with the final two victories coming as the result of game-ending HRs. It was the first time in franchise history they had won back-to-back games in such fashion. However, the four straight wins followed a 3-7 road trip, leaving the Blue Jays 11-12 in July. Ater an 8-17 April, Toronto just hasn't been able to gain any real momentum, as the Jays open this series with the Angels just 48-54 (7 1/2 games back in the AL East and six games back in the wild card race. The Angels just got swept by the Indians in a three-game series that was completed Thursday with Cleveland's 2-1 victory at Progressive Field. The Angels are 7-12 in July and five games under .500 (49-54) for the first time this season. The Angels are 5 1/2 game back in the wild card race. |
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07-27-17 | Montreal v. Winnipeg OVER 51 | Top | 40-41 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-3 Montreal Alouettes and 2-2 Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Thursday at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. QB Darian Durant is completing 69.6 percent of his passes for 1,392 yards with six TD passes and also six INTs. He's been a disappointment so far in 2017, as the Alouettes' 20.2 PPG average is the worst on any of the CFL's nine teams. However, Montreal's defense, which allows a modest 21.8 PPG (ranked 1st), has kept the team competitive in the early going. QB Matt Nichols leads a Winnipeg offense averaging 32.0 PPG, third-best in the league. Nichols is completing 66.2 percent of his passes for 1,080 yards with eight TDs and four interceptions. The Blue Bombers will need to score, as their defense is allowing 34.8 PPG (last) on 411 YPG. The pick: Montreal has been held to 19 or less points in four of its first five games but Durant and Co. should break out here vs. a vulnerable Winnipeg defense (see above). Meanwhile, Winnipeg's Nichols is playing some of his best ball of the young season and the Blue Bombers are an accomplished home team. Winnipeg has won seven of the last 10 meetings against Montreal but the better play is the Over. Make it a 10*. |
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07-27-17 | Cubs v. White Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: After taking two of the first three games of this Cubs/White Sox annual Crosstown Classic, the defending champs are now 10-2 since the All Star break and sit 53-47 on the season, a half-game better than the Brewers in the NL Central. With next week's trade deadline rapidly approaching, the Cubs' South Side neighbors are heading in the opposite direction. Wednesday's 8-3 loss means the White Sox have lost 14 in their last 16 games, giving them the AL's worst record at 39-59. The White Sox are in "full-blown" rebuilding mode! The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (7-6 & 3.95 ERA) will start for the Cubs, while the White Sox counter with Mike Pelfrey (3-7 & 4.46 ERA). Lester hopes to continue the strong effort the Cubs have gotten from their starters since the All-Star break, as Cubs starters are 9-0 with eight quality starts and have posted a 2.50 ERA. Lester had that nightmare start right before the break (recorded just two outs and allowed 10 runs, although only four were earned, against the Pirates) but has returned from the break to post back-to-back wins (1.80 ERA). Lester is 6-6 with a 4.43 ERA in 14 starts vs. the White Sox in his career (teams are 8-6). I guess one could point to Pelfrey's 2-0 career mark vs. the Cubs with a 1.66 ERA in three outings (teams are 3-0) but that's really a small sample size. Pelfrey last won back on June 17 vs. Toronto, with the team going 1-4 in his five starts since. On the season, the White Sox are 6-10 in his starts. The pick: The Cubs bats have come alive, as they have averaged 6.0 RPG since the break but while it is a small sample size, Pelfrey has pitched very well against the Cubs. As for Lester, he had a great second-half in 2016 and has begun 2017 the same way (1.80 ERA in B2B wins since the break). Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-27-17 | A's v. Blue Jays -157 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto's Justin Smoak hit a two-run HR to tie last night's game at two-all and Kendrys Morales followed with a walk-off solo HR as the Blue Jays beat the A's 3-2. Oakland has now lost seven of its last nine games and at 44-57, can just about kiss its postseason chances goodbye (the A's are 9 1/2 games back of the AL's second wild spot). The 47-54 Blue Jays will need more dramatic wins to thrust themselves back into the postseason picture. After playing in the last two ALCS matchups, Toronto has never recovered from an 8-17 April. The Jays may be 6 1/2 games out of the final AL Wild card spot but seven teams are ahead of them. The pitching matchup: Sean Manaea (8-5 & 3.82 ERA) will start for Oakland and Marcus Stroman (9-5 & 2.98 ERA) for Toronto. Manaea has been Oakland's most reliable starter in 2017. He is 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA over his past 12 starts (A's are 8-4), after opening 1-3 with a 5.52 ERA in his first six starts this season (A's were 1-5). This marks Manaea's second career start vs. Toronto (1-0 & 3.00 ERA). Stroman has pitched well all season for Toronto but his last two outings (July 17 & 22), kind of sum up Toronto's 2017 season. Stroman has allowed one ER over 14 1/3 innings (0.63 ERA and an opponents' batting average of .196) but has two no-decisions to show for it (Jays are 1-1). Stroman is 0-0 with a 4.63 ERA in two career starts against Oakland (Jays are 0-2). The pick: Toronto is surely down but not quite out. However, the same can't said about the A's and Oakland is a poor 16-34 on the road YTD. No real reason to think the A's can avoid the four-game sweep here, as Oakland has lost 11 of its last 12 games at Rogers Centre. Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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07-27-17 | Angels v. Indians -143 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians returned from the All Star break and lost five of six games on the road at Oakland and San Francisco. However, the defending AL champs returned home and have won six straight games, as they enter the final contest of the team's seven-game homestand against the LA Angels.The team's six-game winning streak is a season-high and has come at the perfect time, as AL Central rival Kansas City currently owns MLB's longest-active winning streak at eight games. The Indians are a season-high nine games over .500 at 54-45 but with eight wins in a row, the 53-47 Royals have climbed within 1 1/2 games of Cleveland. Meanwhile, the 49-53 Angels are a distant fourth in the AL West (18 1/2 games back of the Astros) and while they are "only" five games back in the race for the second wild-card spot, there are five teams ahead of them! The pitching matchup: J.C. Romero (9-8 & 4.38ERA) will get the nod for LA and Cleveland's starter will be Trevor Bauer (8-8 & 5.58 ERA). Romero is 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in four July starts and while he has made four career appearances against the Indians, all of them have been in relief (no record and a 5.06 ERA). Bauer has struggled in recent starts, lasting just 10 2/3 innings in his three July starts, allowing 17 hits, nine walks and 10 ERs (8.44 ERA). The pick: Some good news for Cleveland fans is that Bauer is 3-0 with a 3.14 ERA in four career starts vs. the Angels (team is 3-1). Even better news is that the Indians are on a roll, having outscored their opponents 50-18 in their six-game winning streak. One last thing. The Angels enter today's game having lost seven in a row to the Indians dating back to June 12 of last season. They also have lost 11 of their last 12 games against the Indians, including each of their last nine games at Progressive Field. Make Cleveland an 8* play. |
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07-26-17 | Twins v. Dodgers OVER 9 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 110 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Kershaw may be sidelined for four-to-six weeks but the Dodgers won Sunday's game (the one in which he left) and have added back-to-back wins Monday (6-4) and Tuesday (6-2) over the Twins. As LA goes for a three-game sweep in tonight's finale, the Dodgers will take the field having won 35 of their last 41 to extend their NL West lead to 12 1/2 games and their leed over the Astros in the race for MLB's best overall record to 2 1/2 games. The Dodgers also own a major-league best 43-13 home record. Minnesota lost for the third straight time last night and Tuesday's defeat dropped them below .500 for the first time since April 24 at 49-50. The Twins, who have lost four of five overall, trail Cleveland by 4 1/2 games in the AL Central and are also three games back in the a wild card chase that includes eight teams separated by no more than five games. The pitching matchup: Ervin Santana (11-7 & 3.26 ERA) takes the mound for the Twins and Brock Stewart (0-0 & 0.00 ERA) will make his first start of the season for the Dodgers, after throwing a combined 13 scoreless innings over six relief appearances since June 20. Santana ended May with a 7-2 record and 1.75 ERA but has since given up at least five runs five times, while allowing two or fewer runs in his other four outings. He is coming off yet another poor outing Friday against Detroit, surrendering five runs on seven hits (including two HRs), while throwing 95 pitches over only 3 1/3 innings. Santana got the win with six innings of two-run ball the last time he faced Dodgers in 2014, improving to 6-4 with a 2.38 ERA in 13 starts against them (teams are 8-5). Stewart, who battled an illness over the weekend, will make his first start of the season Wednesday. He has permitted only five hits and three walks in 13 innings in his six relief appearances in 2017. The pick: Minnesota pitchers have allowed 32 runs during their 1-4 stretch and counting on Santana to get that straightened out is "asking for trouble." Yes, Stewart has excellent numbers over his six relief stints since June (opposing hitters are batting only .122 against him) but he struggled mightily in his first five career starts in 2016, going 2-2 with a 6.38 ERA. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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07-26-17 | Marlins v. Rangers -177 | Top | 22-10 | Loss | -177 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers hit four HRs in Tuesday's 10-4 win over Miami, making it four wins in the team's last five. Texas remains 3 1/2 games out of the second wild card in the American League, its only chance to play October baseball (the Rangers are 18 games back of the Astros in the AL West). Miami is 45-53 on the season and going nowhere as the two teams play the rubber match of this three-game series Wednesday night. |
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07-26-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -183 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 8 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona won 10-2 on Monday but those same bats were quiet on Tuesday, as the Braves won 8-3. In fact, Arizona's starting pitcher, Taijuan Walker, had two of the team's eight hits (including a long solo HR) in the loss. With the defeat, Arizona suffered its 12th setback in its last 17 contests, falling 12 1/2 games back of the LA Dodgers in the NL West. The D'backs are in a virtual tie with the Rockies for the two wild card spots in the NL but both teams are now also looking over their shoulders at the Cubs, who are with 4 1/2 games (if not the Cubs, it would be the Brewers). The 48-51 Braves are not threatening the Nats in the NL East nor the top wild card teams but are 4-1 against the Diamondbacks this season and 15-8 against the NL West. The rubber game of this three-game set goes Wednesday afternoon. The pitching matchup: Aaron Blair (2016: 2-7, 7.59 ERA) will get the first crack at seizing the rotation spot of Jaime Garcia, who was traded to Minnesota whne he faces off against Arizona's Patrick Corbin (7-9, 4.43 ERA). Blair hardlty impressed last season (see above) and he's gone 6-5 with a 4.97 ERA in 18 starts for the Braves' top minor-league affiliate so far in 2017 (he's allowed 89 hits and 40 walks in 87 innings). Blair faced Arizona in his third career start last season and suffered the loss after giving up three runs (two earned) in five innings.Corbin's last start might have been his best this season. He was moved up in the rotation because Taijuan Walker has pitched effectively at Chase Field in 2017, going 5-3 with a 3.15 ERA in 11 starts (team is 7-4). That's quite a difference from his 2-6 (6.19 ERA) road mark in nine starts (team is 2-7). Over his past three Chase Field starts, he has a 2.41 ERA. The pick: No reason to expect Blair to be able to handle an Arizona team which is 35-18 at home, outscoring opponents 5.70-to-4.08 RPG. Then there is Corbin's success against the Braves to consider. He is 3-0 with an 0.59 ERA against Atlanta, yielding only two ERs in 30 2/3 innings over six games (four starts). Those two runs came July 15 during a five-inning start in Atlanta, when he didn't figure in the decision as the Braves won 8-5. Make Arizona an 8* play. |
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07-25-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -142 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -142 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks opened their three-game home series with the Atlanta Braves with a 10-3 win Monday night at Chase Field. J.D. Martinez, who arrived from Detroit in exchange for three prospects last Tuesday, was hit in the hand by a pitch in his debut and missed three games before playing his first full contest with Arizona on Monday. His three-run HR last night was a pleasant reminder of why the D'backs traded for him. The 57-42 D'backs are in a virtual second-place tie with the Rockies (both trail the Dodgers by 11 1/2 games in the NL West) but the two teams hold down the NL's two wild card spots, 5 1/2 games clear of the Cubs. The Braves have now dropped six of eight since reaching the break-even mark at 45-45 on July 16, following a three-game sweep of Arizona in Atlanta (Braves are currently 9 1/2 games out in the wild card chase). The pitching matchup: Mike Foltynewicz (8-5 & 3.87 ERA) starts for Atlanta and Taijuan Walker (6-4 & 3.61 ERA) for Arizona. Foltynewicz remained unbeaten in his last nine starts with a win on Thursday in Los Angeles, ending the Dodgers' 11-game winning streak. He allowed three runs on six hits across 6 1/3 innings to move to 5-0 in his nine-game unbeaten stretch (Braves are 8-1!). He has been particularly tough on opponents of late, going 4-0 with a 2.93 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 30 2/3 frames over his last five outings. However, Foltynewicz is 0-1 with a 5.96 ERA in five career starts against the D'backs (team is 1-4). Walker came off the paternity list Sunday and hopes to end a four-game win-less streak (he's 0-1 but Arizona is 2-2) against the same team he faced for the first time 11 days ago, settling for a no-decision in Atlanta despite allowing two runs over six innings. That's his only appearance against the Braves. The pick: Yes, Foltynewicz is "in a groove," but note that the D'backs are 10-5 in Walker's 2017 starts, giving him the 12th-best moneyline mark among starters at plus-$604. Then there is Arizona's 35-17 home record (second-best to only the Dodgers'), where the D'backs are outscoring opponents by almost two runs (5.75-4,00 RPG)! Make Arizona an 8* play |
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07-25-17 | Brewers v. Nationals OVER 10 | Top | 8-0 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
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07-24-17 | Mets v. Padres UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a week until the non-waiver trade deadline (looming July 31) and Mets like Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda, Curtis Granderson and Addison Reed have all been mentioned as possible trade bait. The Mets saw their four-game winning streak come to an end with Sunday’s 3-2 loss to Oakland and New York has now fallen 10 games back in the NL wild-card race, not to mention 13 1/2 games back in the NL East, New York opens a 10-game road trip Monday against the rebuilding San Diego Padres, who took three of four from San Francisco over the weekend. The Padres are three games back of the Mets in the wild card race and at 43-55 overall, are a whopping 24 1/2 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West. The pitching matchup: Jacob deGrom (11-3 & 3.37 ERA) will start for New York and Clayton Richard (5-10 & 5.35 ERA) for San Diego. DeGrom comes in having won a career-high seven consecutive starts, posting a 1.51 ERA with a 50-10 KW ratio over that stretch. DeGrom is 1-1 with a 1.80 ERA over 20 innings in three career starts against the Padres (Mets are 2-1). Richard will need a bounce back performance here, after surrendering a career-high 11 runs (10 earned) on 14 hits over just 3 2/3 innings in an 18-4 loss at Colorado last Wednesday. “I have to take responsibility,” Richard told reporters. “Unfortunately, it just seemed like mishit balls found the right spots. It was a Coors Field day.” Methinks Richard is passing the buck some to bad luck! Richard is 2-3 with a 4.17 ERA in seven career starts versus the Mets (teams are 3-4).. The pick: DeGrom is pitching as well as anyone not named Kershaw and no reason to expect the San Diego bats to solve him in this one. As for Richard, I'll buy into the fact that the vet will rebound from that last start and let's not forget that more than a handful of Mets are playing this week expecting a call from the front office. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-24-17 | Astros -153 v. Phillies | Top | 13-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: It's close to being a first versus worst meeting as the Houston Astros visit the Philadelphia Phillies for a three-game interleague series that begins Monday. Houston owns MLB's second-best record overall (LA Dodgers own the best) but own MLB's best road record (35-12) and its second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1948). Meanwhile, Philadelphia owns MLB's worst overall record (34-62) and its third-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2048). That said, the Astros are just 5-4 since the All-Star break, while the Phillies have captured five of their last seven contests, after taking two of three this past weekend from the Brewers.. The pitching matchup: Brad Peacock (8-1 & 2.49 ERA) takes the mound for the Astros and Vince Velasquez (2-5 & 5.14 ERA) for the Phillies. Peacock looks to continue his breakout season in tonight's opener of the series. He entered 2017 with 11 wins over parts of five ML seasons, having made 60 appearances (including 46 starts). Peacock has made 22 appearances here in 2017 with the last 10 (since May 22) all being starts. He's 6-1 in those 10 starts (Astros are 8-2) and enters this contest on a five-start winning streak while posting a 1.82 ERA. He is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in two career starts against the Phillies. Velasquez was excellent at Miami on Tuesday, holding the Marlins to two runs - one earned - over six innings but settled for a no-decision in Philadelphia's 5-2 victory. It was his first start since May 30, after spending six weeks on the disabled list with a strained flexor in his right elbow. Velasquez will make his first-ever start against Houston in this one. The pick: Philadelphia is playing better but I expect Houston to have too much for them in this series, starting in tonight's game. Peacock is red-hot and will go to the mound for a team which is 35-12 on the road while averaging a whopping 7.17 RPG. That spells bad news for Velasquez, who unlike in 2016 when he owned a 2.88 home ERA, has struggled at home in 2017, with a 6.26 ERA and 1.50 WHIP in five home starts. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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07-24-17 | White Sox +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 115 | 4 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Cubs’ took the rubber match of their three-game series with the Cards 5-3 last night on ESPN and have now won eight of nine since returning from the break. The team's starting pitching has been a big reason for Chicago's surge, with seven quality starts in those nine games, as Chicago starters own a 2.41 ERA. With the help of a Milwaukee slump (Brewers have lost seven of eight), the Cubs have moved into a tie with Brewers atop the NL Central. Anyone not see this coming? The Cubs now get set to play a home-and-home four-game series with their crosstown rivals the Chicago White Sox, who limp in on nine-game losing streak (0-8 since the break). The White Sox own the AL's worst record as the meet the Cubs at Wrigley Field Monday and Tuesday before heading back home to the South Side on Wednesday and Thursday. |
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07-23-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -170 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs’ six-game winning streak came to a crashing halt on Friday, when the Cardinals scored nine runs with no outs in the eighth, for an 11-4 win at Wrigley. However, Chicago turned the tables on St. Louis Saturday afternoon, rallying for two runs in the eighth inning for a 3-2 victory. Milwaukee also won on Saturday, so the Cubs remain a game back of Milwaukee but they put an extra game between themselves and the Cards plus the Pirates, who lost at Colorado. The two longtime rivals square off tonight on ESPN in the rubber match of this three-game series. The pitching matchup: Michael Wacha (7-3 & 3.71 ERA) takes teh mound for St. Louis and the newly-acquired Jose Quintana (5-8 & 4.20 ERA) for Chicago. Wacha is starting to regain the form he first showed in the 2013 postseason and the 2015 regular season, when he won 17 games. He has won four straight starts and five consecutive decisions after throwing a three-hit shutout against the New York Mets on Tuesday. He has been dominant during his four-start winning streak, with a 1.01 ERA and 31 strikeouts in 26 2/3 innings. However, Wacha is 4-5 with a 6.26 ERA in 12 career starts against the Cubs (Cards are 5-7). Quintana will make his first start as a Cub at Wrigley Field, where he is 0-1 with a 2.51 ERA in two previous outings.Quintana was dominant in his Cubs debut last Sunday, racking up 12 strikeouts over seven scoreless innings to win at Baltimore, and he’s eager to pitch in front of his new home crowd. "I'm really excited to be part of this team and throw Sunday against the Cardinals," Quintana told reporters. "I'm excited, man, I'm excited. I don't know what the fans will say to me, but I'll try to do the best." Quintana has won both of his previous starts against the Cardinals, in 2012 and 2015, while allowing two runs over 11 1/3 innings (1.59 ERA). The pick: Wacha's lack of success vs. the Cubs should be a concern for St. Louis backers (not I), plus the move from the South Side of Chicago to the North Side will prove to be "just what the doctor ordered" for Quintana. Make the Cubs an 8* play. |
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07-23-17 | Nationals v. Diamondbacks UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington Nationals are 6-2 heading into the final game of their nine-game road trip. This game marks the rubber match of a three-game series with the D'backs, as the teams have exchanging one run victories. Arizona won 6-5 on Friday and Washington won 4-3 on Saturday. The Nats' 32 road wins is second-best in MLB to the Astros' 35 and are a big reason that the Nats own an 11-game lead in the NL East (only bigger division lead is also held by Houston, which owns a 17-game lead in the AL West). Arizona is 56-41 on the season, in a virtual tie with Colorado for second place in the NL West. However, both teams are a whopping 10 1/2 games back of the Dodgers. Instead of looking up, both the D'backs and Rockies are looking over their shoulders, as there is a 5 1/2 game gap between the two teams and the defending champion Cubs in the wild card race. The pick: Stephen Strasburg (10-3 & 3.31 ERA) and Robbie Ray (9-4 & 2.97 ERA) square off on Sunday in a matchup of All Star pitchers. Strasburg had an awful start prior to the All-Star break, lasting only three innings and failing to strike out a batter while while allowing six runs (three earned) in a loss to Atlanta. However, he rebounded with a special effort in last Monday's 6-1 win at Cincinnati. He struck out 11 while allowing one run on four hits in seven innings. The win gives Strasburg a 7-1 record in nine road starts with a 2.45 ERA and 1.06 WHIP (Nats are 7-2). Ray continued his surprising season in his first start after the All-Star break, tossing six innings of two-run ball at Cincinnati to establish a career high with his ninth victory. The D'backs are 12-6 in Ray's starts in 2017 (plus-$497). A worry may be Ray's 0-3 record with a 6.48 ERA in three career starts against the Nats. The pick: The Nats and Strasburg have been terrific on the road all season and note that six of Strasburg's nine road starts have stayed under the total. Ray has pitched better away from home for most of 2017 but does enter this contest 3-1 with a 2.45 ERA in his last four home starts. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-23-17 | Rangers v. Rays -134 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -134 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Rays took a five-game winning streak into their series' finale at Oakland on Wednesday and had passed the Yanks in the AL East. However, the Rays lost 7-2 to the A's in that one, before returning home for a six-game homestand. Up first were the Rangers for three games and Tampa has lost back-to-back 4-3 decisions and now find themselves tied with the Yankees for the AL's two wild card spots with both teams just one game ahead of the Twins and the Royals (Yanks and Rays trail the Red Sox by 3 1/2 games in the division). The Rangers rallied to win Friday's game and then came back from a three-run deficit Saturday to win by the same 4-3 score. The Rangers can now earn a three-game series sweep on Sunday, after entering the series on a five-game losing streak. Texas has no chance to catch the Astros in the AL West (trail by 18 games!) but are among the half-dozen or more teams still in the wild card chase (currently sit 3 1/2 games out). |
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07-22-17 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 2-6 | Push | 0 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves ended the Dodgers' 11-game winning streak with a 6-3 win over LA Thursday night at Dodger Stadium and then 'lit up' Alex Wood for nine runs (seven earned) over just 4 2/3 innings of a second straight Atlanta win, 12.3 (Wood entered the game 11-0 with a 11.56 ERA). Lefty Jaime Garcia not only tossed seven strong innings but also belted a grand slam in Friday’s win, as the Braves improved to 7-2 in their last nine road games and to on the season. As for LA, after going 31-4 over a 35-game stretch, LA is now looking to avoid a third straight loss. The pitching matchup: Julio Teheran (7-7 & 4.69 ERA) starts for Atlanta and Rich Hill (6-4 & 3.55 ERA) for Los Angeles. Teheran was always an excellent home pitcher for Atlanta but a move to the team's new home, SunTrust Park, has not been to Teheran's liking. He's an abysmal 1-7 with 7.05 ERA in 10 starts (Braves are 2-8). However, on the road, Teheran's an outstanding 6-0 with a 2.53 ERA in nine starts (Braves are 7-2). The bad news (for Brave fans) here is, Teheran is 0-6 with a 6.47 ERA in seven career starts versus the Dodgers (Atlanta is 0-7). Hill battled blister problems for most of 2016 (first with Oakland and then LA) and it was much of the same early in 2017. However, he has posted a 1.74 ERA and 44-to-6 KW ratio over his last five starts covering 31 innings (he's 3-1 and the Dodgers are 4-1). What's more, Hill owns a 3-0 record and 1.89 ERA in seven career games (five starts / teams are 4-1) against the Braves. The pick: Am I somewhat concerned over Teheran's ugly LT mark against LA? Yes, but his 2.53 ERA in nine 2017 road starts trumps that. Then there is Hill, who has been on a roll since mid-June. Make the Under a 10* play.
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07-22-17 | Red Sox -128 v. Angels | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox won 6-2 last night in Anaheim, giving them four wins in their last six. That's not exactly a hot streak but it's a step in the right direction after having lost six of eight from July 5 through July 16. Chris Sale tossed six scoreless innings in Friday’s victory but Dustin Pedroia saw his nine-game hitting streak come to an end. Still, the win kept Boston 3 1/2 games up on the Yankees and Rays, who are in a virtual tie for second in the AL East. The Angels have now dropped eight of their last 12 games and are now 4 1/2 games out of a wild card spot, with three teams ahead of them and two teams tied with them (talk about a log-jam!). |
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07-22-17 | Saskatchewan v. Calgary -10 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 58 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The 1-2 Saskatchewan Roughriders will take on the 2-1-1 Calgary Stampeders Saturday at McMahon Stadium. The Roughriders are off their first win of the season (37-20 at home over Hamilton), after opening 0-2. Saskatchewan lost 17-16 at Montreal to start the season but QB Kevin Glenn has thrown for 728 yards and six TDs the last two games, leading the Roughriders to 40 points (lost by three in OT) and 37 (17-point win). The Saskatchewan defense has allowed 326.0 YPG (first) but 26.7 PPG, which ranks fifth. Calgary is 2-1-1, having played three of their first four away from home. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 65 percent of his passes for 1,382 yards with seven TD passes and just two INTs in 163 pass attempts. Calgary allows more than 90 YPG than Saskatchewan (419 to 326) but about the same amount of points, 27.5 per to 26.7. |
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07-22-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs’ six-game winning streak came to a crashing halt on Friday, when the Cardinals scored nine runs with no outs in the eighth, for an 11-4 win at Wrigley. However, the entire NL Central got much tighter, as with Milwaukee's loss at Philly (6th straight), the Cubs remained just one game back of the Brewers while Pittsburgh's sixth straight win (12th in 14 games) saw the Pirates close to withing two games of first place. The Cards' big win over the Cubs moved them within 3 1/2 of the Brewersrs square off here. |
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07-21-17 | Red Sox -191 v. Angels | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox started winning while the Yanks began to struggle and Boston took over the AL East lead. However, while the Red Sox still own first-place in the division (Boston leads Tampa Bay by 2 1/2 games and New York by 3 1/2), they are just 5-8 since the team's six-game winning streak was snapped on July 5. Boston continued to just "spin its wheels" completing an eight-game homestand coming out of the break at just 4-4. The Red Sox open a three-game series Friday in Anaheim against the Angels, who had dropped seven of nine before winning two of their last three. Mike Trout has homered in back-to-back contests to highlight his five-game hitting streak, which has helped the Angels stay in that tightly-bunched group of teams fighting for the AL's two wild card sport (Angels are currently 3 1/2 games out of the final spot). |
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07-21-17 | Winnipeg v. BC UNDER 56.5 | Top | 42-45 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers will meet the 3-1 BC Lions Friday at the BC Place. The Blue Bombers have two excellent offensive efforts (a 43-point effort in a win at Saskatchewan plus a 33-point effort in a win at home over Toronto), sandwiched around a 29-10 home loss to Calgary. QB Matt Nichols is completing 62.5 percent of his passes for 826 yards with five TD passes and three interceptions (fairly modest numbers). Winnipeg is allowing 31.3 PPG, ranking eighth of nine teams. Speaking of modest numbers, BC's QB Jonathon Jennings has completed 67 percent of his passes for 853 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. Jennings was hurt on the Lion’s first offensive series last week, when he was driven into the turf by a Hamilton DL. He was replaced by veteran backup Travis Lulay, who threw for 436 yards and three TDs in a 41-26 road win. BC is 3-1 to start the 2017, losing only 31-27 against Edmonton, which is now 4-0 after last night's win. The pick: BC has been the better team so far in 2017 but Winnipeg has won four of the last five meetings between the two teams. The QB situation at BC is muddled plus Winnipeg's Nichols has not played well, either. The BC defense allows 21.8 PPG, best in the CFL and I say the Under is a 10* play. |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies -131 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -131 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Everyone is talking about the Cubs in the NL Central, after the defending champs have won all six games since the break to close withing a game of the Brewers. However, the red-hot Pirates have also surged into contention in that division, after completing a four-game sweep of the first-place Milwaukee Brewers with Thursday's 4-2 victory. Pittsburgh was eight games behind Milwaukee when it woke up last Sunday morning but now finds itself only three back, as Thursday's 4-2 victory moved them to 48-48 (Pirates have won 11 of 13). Colorado (56-41) endured a 5-15 stretch before righting the ship by scoring 49 runs during a four-game winning streak, including a three-game sweep of the San Diego Padres to open this week. The 56-41 Rockies now share the NL wild card lead with the Arizona Diamondbacks and are 5 1/2 games ahead of the Chicago Cubs and 7 1/2 in front of Pittsburgh. These two hot teams square off for three games this weekend at Coors Field. The pitching matchup: Trevor Williams (3-4 & 4.69 ERA) gets the nod for Pittsburgh and Jeff Hoffman (6-1 & 4.33 ERA) for Colorado. Williams began the season in the bullpen but is now 2-3 with a 4.43 ERA in 13 starts in 2017 (Pirates are 6-7). He has never faced Colorado or any of its players. Hoffman was acquired from Toronto in the 2015 in Troy Tulowitzki trade and like Williams, has never faced Pittsburgh or any of its players. The Rockies are 7-3 in Hoffman's 10 starts this season but his ERA at Coors is a problem (6.44), considering it's just 2.45 on the road. The pick: Something has to give here but I won't buck Colorado here at home. Colorado is averaging 12.25 RPG in its four-game winning streak with the last three coming at Coors, where they are now averaging 6.19 RPG on the season. Colorado is a 10* play. |
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07-21-17 | Brewers v. Phillies -135 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Milwaukee Brewers were one of MLB's surprise teams in the first half, taking a 5 1/2 game lead in the NL Central over the defending champion Cubs into the All star break. Let's remember, this team won just 73 games in 2016 and 68 in 2015. That said, most felt the Cubs would eventually "get their act together" and I imagine most observers felt that Brewers would at some time in 2017's second half, be faced with a "regression to the mean." Well, the Cubs have gone 6-0 since the break, while the Brewers, after winning their first two contests after the break, have gone on to lose five in a row. Milwaukee continues itt 10-game road trip with three against the Philadelphia Phillies beginning Friday, with its lead in the NL Central having dwindled to just one game over the Chicago Cubs. More bad news for Milwaukee comes in the fact that after Pittsburgh completed a four-game sweep of Milwaukee with a 4-2 victory on Thursday, the Pirates closed to within three of the Brewers. Hard to have anything nice to say about the Phillies though, as Philadelphia opens this series with MLB's worst record (32-61) and its third-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2148). The pitching matchup: Matt Garza (4-4 & 3.84 ERA) takes the mound for Milwaukee and Aaron Nola (6-6 & 3.54 ERA) for Philadelphia. Garza has made 14 starts in 2017 and the Brewers have gone 7-7. Garza allowed one run, three hits and three walks while striking out one in five innings of Milwaukee's 5-2 loss to Philadelphia on Sunday, leaving him 2-2 with a 2.62 ERA in 10 career starts vs. the Phillies (teams are 4-6). Nola permitted two runs, seven hits and two walks while striking out seven in six innings of the Phillies' 3-2 loss at Milwaukee on Saturday and is now 2-0 with a 1.42 ERA in three starts versus the Brewers (team is 2-1). Nola has become Philly's best pitcher of late, going 4-3 with a 2.65 ERA in his last eight starts, lowering his ERA by 1.52 during that span. The pick: The Brewers desperately need to "take care of business" in this three-game series at Philly, as the team wraps up the month with a three-game series in Washington against the Nats and then has a three-game home series with the Cubs. However, I want no part of a this floundering Milwaukee team which has scored just 11 runs in losing five in a row and faces Nola, who owns a 1.78 ERA in his last five starts. Make the Philles a 10* play. |
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07-21-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -140 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -140 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs entered the All Star break at 43-45, 5 1/2 games back of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. However, Chicago has won all six games since returning to the field (three-game sweeps at Baltimore and Atlanta) and now return to the "Friendly Confines" for a three-games series with the Cards before playing a home-and-home IL series with the crosstown White Sox, beginning with two games at Wrigley on Monday and Tuesday. Is this finally the hot streak the Cubs (and most baseball observers) expected would eventually come? St. Louis has lost two straight but is 13-9 its last 22 and is not out of things in the division just yet, sitting 4 1/2 games behind Milwaukee. |
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07-20-17 | Yankees v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -150 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Mariners open a four-game home series with the NY Yankees having won six of their last seven games to reach the .500 mark (48-48). Seattle now sits just 1 1/2 games behind the 48-45 Yankees, who currently hold down the second wild-card spot. The Mariners completed a 5-1 road trip with a 4-1 victory over the Houston Astros on Wednesday and now have their next 10 contests scheduled for Safeco Field. New York lost to Minnesota 6-1 on Wednesday, one day after acquiring third baseman Todd Frazier (0-for-1, hit by pitch) and relievers David Robertson (didn't pitch) and Tommy Kahnle (one scoreless inning) from the Chicago White Sox. The Yankees are counting on this trade to kick-start a winning streak, as since mid-June, the Yankees have been in a funk (10-22 their last 32 games). |
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07-20-17 | Edmonton v. Hamilton UNDER 53 | Top | 31-28 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-0 Edmonton Eskimos visit the 0-3 Hamilton Tiger-Cats on Thursday at Tim Hortons Field. The Edmonton Eskimos look for their second road victory to build on their quick 3-0 start to the season. QB Mike Reilly is completing 71.8 percent of his passes for 866 yards with four TD passes without an interception in 103 pass attempts. However, it's the Edmonton defense which is the main reason the Eskimos are unbeaten, ranking first in points allowed (22.3 PPG) and second in total yards allowed (336.3 YPG). Checking the stats, it's not hard to see why the Tiger-Cats are still searching for their first victory of the year. Hamilton ranks 9th (of nine teams) in scoring (20.3 PPG) and in total yards (305.3 YPG). Defensively, Hamilton also ranks last in the CFL in both points allowed (36.7 PPG) and total yards (512.0 YPG). |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox -118 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -118 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox got hot about the same time the Yankees went into a slump and Boston took over first-place in the AL East prior to the break. However, Boston began to 'cool off' before the break and heading into last night's game with Toronto was just 4-7 in its previous 11 games and had played 58 innings in a four-day span after Tuesday's 5-4 win in 15 innings. Boston manager John Farrell was grateful for a stress-free 5-1 win Wednesday night saying, "The fact that we played that game in under three hours, it felt like we were only at halftime," Farrell told reporters. With the Rays and Yankees both losing on Wednesday, the Red Sox lead Tampa Bay by three games and the Yankees by 4 1/2 games as they get set for Thursday afternoon's finale of this four-game series with Toronto. The 43-51 Blue Jays reside in the AL East basement, 10 games back of the Red Sox, as the team just hasn't been able to overcome a 2-11 start that led to an 8-17 record by the end of April. The pitching matchup: Francisco Liriano (5-5 & 6.04 ERA) takes the mound for Toronto and Doug Fister (0-3 & 6.75 ERA) for Boston. Liriano lasted just two-plus innings in his last start, allowing five runs on three hits and four walks against the Tigers in an 11-1 loss on July 15. 2017 has been a struggle for Liriano with his 6.00-plus ERA, 1.67 WHIP and .283 BAA. He held Boston scoreless on four hits over 5 1/3 innings on April 19 but was ripped for five runs on seven hits in six innings by the Red Sox on July 1. That leaves him 4-4 with a 5.44 ERA in eight career starts against Boston. Fister was claimed off waivers from the LA Angels and made a decent season debut against his former club, taking the loss with six innings of three-run ball. He did not factor in the decision in his following start, allowing a three-run HR among four hits over five innings. He then allowed six runs at Texas in 3 2/3 innings before giving up three runs in relief during.a 16-inning loss to the Yankees last Saturday, The pick: That 16-inning game has forced the Red Sox to shuffle their pitcher rotation. Overall, the Red Sox have played 67 innings in six games over five days! That said, the Blue Jays just can't seem to 'catch fire' and Liriano has been a 'nightmare' on the road this season, allowing 35 hits and 21 walks in just 27 innings. His away ERA is 8.33 and his road WHIP is 2.07! Fister has made eight career starts against Toronto and owns a respectable 3.69 ERA. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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07-19-17 | Montreal v. Ottawa -4.5 | Top | 19-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-2 Montreal Alouettes will play the 0-3-1 Ottawa Redblacks Wednesday night at TD Place Stadium in Ottawa. Montreal has played three of its first four at home, losing its lone road game 23-19 at Edmonton (note: Eskimos are 3-0 to start the 2017 season). QB Darian Durant is completing 66.4 percent of his passes for 940 yards with four TD passes and four INTs but is somewhat helped by the league's top rushing attack (109.2 YPG). The bigger help is a Montreal defense allowing a league-best 21.2 PPG. The Redblacks are still looking for their first win of the season after a 0-3-1 start. QB Trevor Harris is completing 71.5 percent of his passes for 1,379 yards with eight TD passes and just two INTs. He leads an offense which has played well, averaging 29.0 PPG (4th-best). However, Ottawa's defense has allowed the most points (123) in the league and its 30.8 PPG average ranks 7th of nine teams, ahead of two teams that have played just three games. The pick: The Alouettes are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 road games but Ottawa has won five of the last six meetings against Montreal. Yes, Ottawa is win-less but along with a 31-31 tie, the three losses have come by 4, 1 and 2 points! The Redblacks aren't nearly as bad as their record and are, as the saying goes, "due!" Maybe, overdue? Make Ottawa an 8* play. |
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07-19-17 | Cardinals v. Mets -144 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Everyone is talking about the the Cubs, as the defending champs have returned from the break to win five in a row, closing within 2 1/2 games of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central, However, the Brewers also need to be worried about the Cardinals, who have rebounded from a disastrous stretch by playing their best baseball of the season over the last 2 1/2 weeks. The Cards have won 13 of 20 and at 46-47, have a chance to reach .500 by sweeping the Mets in this three-game series. Cards are now just 4 1/2 games back of Milwaukee. With Tuesday's 5-0 loss, the Mets have dropped three in a row and eight of 11 to plummet into fourth place in the National League East at 41-50. The pitching matchup: Mike Leake (6-7 & 3.14 ERA) takes the mound for the Cards and Jacob deGrom (10-3 & 3.48 ERA) for the Mets. Leake's 3.14 ERA is solid but he is mired in a 1-5 slump in his last nine starts (Cards are 3-6). Leake owns a solid 2.74 ERA against the Mets but is just 2-3 in seven starts (teams are 4-3). DeGrom won his sixth consecutive start Friday, when he allowed two runs (one earned) over eight innings as the Mets beat the Colorado Rockies 14-2. He struck out 11 and walked one. He has lasted at least seven innings in each of his past six wins, a stretch that began with a complete game against the Chicago Cubs back on June 12. He has a 1.53 ERA during the winning streak and has allowed just 27 hits and nine walks while striking out 47 in 47 innings. The pick: DeGrom is 2-2 with a 5.63 ERA in four career starts against the Cardinals but he comes in pitching as well as any pitcher in MLB not named Clayton Kershaw. Meanwhile, his opposite number (Leake), is slumping. The Cards are playing better right now but deGrom will be the difference. No sweep here! Make the Mets a 10* play. |
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07-19-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -143 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Everyone is talking about the the Cubs, as the defending champs have returned from the break to win five in a row, closing within 2 1/2 games of the Milwaukee Brewers in the NL Central. However, right now, the Brewers are tasked with worrying about the Pirates, who after last night's 4-3 win over Milwaukee have won nine of 11 to draw within five games of the Brewers. |
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07-19-17 | Padres v. Rockies -168 | Top | 4-18 | Win | 100 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies struggled before the break (lost 13 of 18 games) and when they returned to play, promptly lost 14-2 and 9-3 to the Mets. That gave them 15 losses in their previous 20 games but Colorado "stopped the bleeding" with a 13-4 rout of the Mets on Sunday. Colorado returned home Monday to open a three-game series with the Padres, who were just 16-28 on the road to open this week. The Rockies were hoping they could build some mojo against the Padres. That's exactly what has happened, as Colorado followed its 13-run Sunday effort at Citi Field by scoring nine runs on both Monday and Tuesday in winning both games. That three-game winning streak has them within a half-game of Arizona in race for the NL's top wild card spot and has allowed the Rockies to keep the red-hot Cubs at bay, who trail them by 5 1/2 games for that final wild card spot. San Diego has fallen to 40-53 overall (the Padres can't even see the Dodgers in the NL West), which includes a 16-30 road mark. The pitching matchup: Clayton Richard (5-9 & 4.75 ERA) takes the mound as the Padres try to avoid the sweep and will be opposed by Jon Gray (2-1 & 6.23 ERA) of the Rockies. Richard is win-less in his last five starts, going 0-2 with a 6.18 ERA (team is 1-4). Padres manager Andy Green told reporters, "He's the unquestioned leader of the team and his preparation is second to none for his own craft. He's ready to pitch every five days. He's a tremendous leader, tremendous teammate. He means more to this organization than I think anybody outside could really know." I'm not sure just what to make of that statement. Richard defeated the Rockies back on June 2 (gave up four runs - three earned - on 10 hits in 5 2/3 innings) and is 4-4 with a 4.79 ERA in 16 career appearances (15 starts / teams are 7-8). Gray was rocked by the New York Mets in his last outing, giving up eight runs on nine hits in two-plus innings of a 14-2 loss. However, he had pitched well in his first two starts since returning from a foot injury that caused him to miss two-plus months to begin the season. Gray posted a 3.09 ERA in two wins, while striking out 15 in 11 2/3 innings. He is 2-2 with a 2.30 ERA in seven career starts vs. San Diego (team is 2-5). The pick: Here's the rub. The Rockies come in having scored 31 runs in three straight wins (have 30 hits) and on the season, average 5.93 RPG at Coors. In contrast, SD is 18-30 on the road, getting outscored 5.28-to-3.59 RPG. Richard has made seven career starts at Coors Field and owns a 7.78 ERA, while Gray owns an 0.86 ERA in three career starts at Coors Field against the Padres. Make Colorado a 10* play. |
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07-19-17 | Phillies v. Marlins -181 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -181 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies lost 6-5 (10 inn.) on Monday but Nick Williams' two-run HR led the way to a 5-2 win in Miami last night. The MLB-worst Phillies (31-61) now have a chance to take this three-game series with a win this afternoon against the Marlins in teh rubber match of the series. Miami has dropped four of its last five to fall to 42-50, 14 1/2 games back of the first-place Nats in the NL East. The Marlins' wild card hopes aren't much brighter, as they are 11 games out of the final wild card spot with four teams ahead of them. |
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07-18-17 | Padres v. Rockies -141 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies lost 13 of 18 games prior to the break and returned to play this past weekend at Citi Field against the Mets. They promptly lost 14-2 and 9-3, giving them 15 losses in their previous 20 games. However, Colorado "stopped the bleeding" with a 13-4 rout of the Mets on Sunday and returned home Monday to open a three-game series with the Padres. San Diego was coming off three straight series wins but at 40-51 (prior to Monday's game), the Padres were hardly a formidable opponent. Yes, the Padres had won four of their last six on the road but they were still only 16-28 away from home on the season. Colorado won 9-6 last night, giving the team consecutive wins for the first time in four-plus weeks.The pitching matchup: A pair of rookies take the mound on Tuesday night, Dinelson Lamet (3-3 & 5.93 ERA) for San Diego and Antonio Senzatela (9-3 & 4.63 ERA) for Colorado. Lamet has struck out 55 in just 41 innings but also has been reached for 10 HRs over his first eight major-league starts. Lamet hasn't pitched since losing 11-2 to Cleveland back on July 7, when he allowed six runs (five earned) on six hits in only four innings. This is his ninth career start and first against Colorado. Senzatela is being recalled from Triple-A and will make his first big-league start since June 22. He was 7-1 with a 3.19 ERA through 10 starts before he began struggling as he posted an 8.54 ERA during a five-start stretch. Senzatela has already defeated the Padres twice this season, recording a 2.77 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 13 innings.
The pick: This is Lamet's first time in Coors Field and it hardly bodes well that in four road starts in 2017, he owns an 8.00 ERA and 1.61 WHIP (welcome to Coors!). As for Senzatela, he's had great success at Coors, going 7-2 in his nine starts there. He'll face a San Diego team which ranks 30th (dead-last) in both runs scored (3.63 per) and team BA (.231) plus is only 16-29 on the road, getting outscored 5.20-to-3.51 RPG. Meanwhile, he'll be backed by a Colorado team averaging 5.87 RPG at home in 2017. Make Colorado an 8* play. |
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07-18-17 | Rangers v. Orioles -118 | Top | 1-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Orioles were once 22-10 on the 2017 season but the team has imploded. Baltimore returned from the break with a 10-game homestand and promptly got swept by the Cubs, losing three games by the combined scores of 27-11. The Orioles entered their series against Texas with their starters having posted an American League-worst 6.02 ERA. However, Chris Tillman delivered six strong innings (two hits and one run) in a 3-1 Orioles win. The Rangers have a 10-game road trip to open the second half and with Monday's loss, have collected only 22 hits in splitting the first four games. Neither team is a threat in their respective divisions (especially Texas, playing in the AL West with Houston) but like almost the entire AL, remain in wild card contention. Texas is 2 1/2 and Baltimore 4 1/2 games out of the final wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Tyson Ross (2-1 & 5.33 ERA) starts for the Rangers and Dylan Bundy (8-8 & 4.33 ERA) for the Orioles. Ross did not make his season debut until June 16 following surgery for thoracic outlet syndrome and has made it through six innings in only one of his first five starts (Texas is 3-2). It's encouraging that he has limited opponents to a .211 batting average in those five starts but then again, Ross is 0-2 with an ugly 17.10 ERA in seven career appearances (just one start) against Baltimore, allowing 19 runs in 10 innings! Bundy opened the season by winning five of his first six decisions but his ERA has climbed nearly 1 1/2 runs over his last six starts (from 2.93 to 4.33). He has not allowed a run in three appearances (one start) versus Texas, winning that lone start. The pick: The Baltimore Orioles needed to play 34 innings before taking their first lead following the All-Star break, when Seth Smith hit a tie-breaking HR in the seventh-inning of Monday's 3-1 win. I'm not ready to say the Orioles "are back" but the Texas bats have been very quiet since returning from the break, accumulating only 22 hits while scoring a modest 10 runs in four games, five of which came last Friday (that's five runs the last three games!). Make Baltimore a 10* play. |
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07-18-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -151 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates won 4-2 on Monday in the opener of this four-game home series with the Brewers. It marked Pittsburgh's eighth win in its last 10 games and moved the Pirates to within six games of the first-place Brewers in the NL Central. More good news comes Pittsburgh's way in that Starling Marte returns to the lineup Tuesday night after serving an 80-game suspension for testing positive for the performance-enhancing substance Nandrolone. Marte was suspended on April 18 but will be in left field when the Pirates host the Milwaukee Brewers in the second of this four-game series. The loss represented the second in a row for Milwaukee, which had has now dropped back-to-back games for the first time since June 27-28. The Brewers are still atop the division but the Cubs have won four straight and are just 3 1/2 back (Cards are 5 1/2 back and the Pirates six back). |
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07-17-17 | Padres v. Rockies -165 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 54 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Luis Perdomo (4-4 & 4.54 ERA) gets the nod for San Diego and German Marquez (6-4 & 4.36 ERA) for Colorado. Perdomo won his third consecutive start on July 5, holding Cleveland to two runs (one earned) over five innings in a 6-2 victory. He has allowed three or fewer runs in 11 of his 15 outings this season but the Padres are only a modest 7-8 in his starts. He is 0-2 with a 5.32 ERA in five career games (three starts / team is 0-3) against Colorado. Marquez is pitching for the first time since July 7, when he allowed three runs over seven frames in 12-4 victory against the Chicago White Sox. The rookie is facing San Diego for the second time this season after allowing six runs on eight hits with nine strikeouts over five innings in an 8-5 loss at Petco Park on June 2. The pick: The Padres have won four of their last six on the road but are still only 16-28 away from home on the season, getting outscored 5.11-to-3.45 RPG. Perdomo has seen his team lose all three of his starts against the Rockies (5.82 ERA) and faces a Colorado team long overdue to break out of its current slump. Why not here for the Rockies, where they've averaged 5.80 RPG at Coors in 2017. Make Colorado an 8* play. |
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07-17-17 | Cardinals v. Mets UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis opened a 10-game road trip by losing two of three at Pittsburgh over the weekend. The Cards fell to 18-23 on the road in 2017 and to 44-47 on the season, leaving them 6 1/2 back of the Brewers in the NL Central. The Mets began the second half by winning 14-2 and 9-3 over the visiting Rockies but were then routed 13-4 in Sunday’s series finale. The Mets welcome the Cards to Citi Field for a four-game series beginning tonight at 41-48, leaving them 13 games back of the Nats in the NL East. |
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07-17-17 | Nationals -144 v. Reds | Top | 6-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington addressed its biggest problem area (bullpen) over the weekend by acquiring a pair of solid relievers from Oakland. The Nationals lead the NL in batting average (.279) and runs scored (515) while ranking third in starters' ERA (3.57) but 14 blown saves and a major-league worst 5.31 ERA from their relievers have kept them a "tick below" the Dodgers and Astros. Washington just acquired right-hander Ryan Madson and left-hander Sean Doolittle from Oakland in hopes of solving its bullpen woes. So far in this series at Cincy, relief has not been needed. The Nats have hit 10 HRs en route to outscoring the Reds 29-11 in winning the first three of this four-game series. Washington now owns a four-game winning streak and at 55-36, a 9 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The Reds have fallen to 39-52, 11 1/2 games out in the NL Central. |
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07-16-17 | New York Yankees - Game #2 v. Boston Red Sox - Game #2 -134 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The setup: The NY Yankees and Boston Red Sox played a 16-inning marathon on Satuday (Yanks won 4-1) and now play a Sunday day/night doubleheader. Saturday's game lasted nearly six hours but New York pulled within 3 1/2 games of the first-place Red Sox with the win. However, the contest left both teams with uncertainty heading into Sunday's twin-bill Sunday, as each team used seven relievers in the longest game between the rivals at Fenway Park since 1966. New York turns to fill-in starter Bryan Mitchell in the matinee against Boston's Rick Porcello The pitching matchup (Game 2): Masahiro Tanaka (7-8 & 5.47 ERA) for the Yanks and David Price (4-2 & 3.91 ERA) for the Red Sox. Tanaka has had a wildly inconsistent season and went into the break off a rough outing against Milwaukee last Sunday, allowing five runs in 4 1/3 innings while serving up two HRs. He's now allowed 23 HRs, the second-most in the AL. Tanaka is 6-3 with a 3.89 ERA in 12 career starts vs. Boston (NYY are 6-6). Price didn't come off the disabled list until May but has allowed three ERs or fewer in all but one of his nine starts, since. He owns a 4.76 ERA in his 36 career starts against the Yankees (he's 14-11 and his teams 21-15). The pick: Tanaka posted his second career shutout with a three-hit gem at Fenway Park back on April 27 but was reached for five runs on five hits (including three HRs) in five innings of a rematch at Yankee Stadium last month. He is not to be trusted. Price may be unhappy (particularly with the media) but he's been very consistent since getting a late start to the 2017 season. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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07-16-17 | Rangers v. Royals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers followed Friday's 5-3 win in Kansas City with a 1-0 shutout win on Saturday, giving them five wins in their last six game and getting themselves back to .500 at 45-45. Almost all AL teams are alive in the wild card chase at this stage and Texas has clearly climbed back into contention as the Rangers are currently just two back of the final wild card spot. In contrast, the Royals are heading in the opposite direction. After going 6-1 from June 30 through July 5, KC has now lost five straight to fall to 44-45 (note: team is still just 2 1/2 out of that final wild card spot!). The pitching matchup:. Yu Darvish (6-8, 3.49 ERA) takes the mound for Texas and Ian Kennedy (3-6 & 4.45 ERA) for Kansas City. Darvish has dropped four straight decisions, although twice in that span he allowed just two ERs, including last Sunday in a 3-0 defeat against the LA Angels. Darvish is 2-1 (2.25 ERA) in four career starts vs. KC (Texas is 3-1). Kennedy gets his first start since the break coming off going unbeaten in his last six starts with a 3.22 ERA. He's gone at least six innings in five of those outings. posting a 3-0 record (KC is 5-1). The pick: Texas goes for the sweep here but Kennedy has a nice run going (see above). As for Darvish, he is a way better pitcher than his current record and I expect that he'll continue the fine pitching the Texas staff has shown lately, when the Rangers have allowed a total of just 10 runs in winning five of six. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-16-17 | Blue Jays -104 v. Tigers | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -104 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Blue Jays entered the season off back-to-back appearances in the ALCS in 2015 and 2016 but Toronto just can't seem to find a groove, after opening 2-11 (team was 8-17 at the close of April). The Jays returned from the All Star break to win 7-2 in Detroit on Friday but then got clobbered on Saturday, as the Tigers bounced back with their highest offensive output in a month in an 11-1 victory. J.D. Martinez and Miguel Cabrera each had three hits and a HR (Martinez had five RBI) but Detroit is still just 40-49 on the season. The Blue Jays failed to build on Friday's 7-2 series opening win, as they managed just two hits in the entire game plus needed their bullpen for six innings after Francisco Liriano exited early with neck stiffness. Toronto sits at 42-48 and is tied for last-place in the AL East with Baltimore. The Jays and Tigers play the rubber match of this three-game series early Sunday afternoon in Detroit. |
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07-15-17 | Rays v. Angels UNDER 9 | Top | 6-3 | Push | 0 | 13 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Mike Trout is back in the Los Angeles Angels' lineup but his much-ballyhooed return didn't result in a victory. Trout returned to the field after missing 39 contests with a torn ligament in his left thumb but went 1-for-5 in Friday's 10-inning, 2-1 loss to the visiting Rays. The loss was the Angels' eighth in 11 games, as LA fell three game back of the AL's final wild card spot in a very crowded field. As for Tampa Bay, its win coupled with New York's loss, give the Rays a one-game lead over the Yankees for the AL's No. 1 wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Alex Cobb (7-6 & 3.75 ERA) takes the mound for the Rays and JC Ramirez (8-7 & 4.46 ERA) for the Angels. Cobb has delivered scoreless two-hit efforts in two of his last three starts, an eight-inning no-decision against Pittsburgh on June 27 and a 7 2/3-inning 1-0 victory over Boston on July 8. He is 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA over his last six starts (Rays are 4-2) and has given up fewer than three ERs in five of the six. Cobb is 1-2 with a 6.51 ERA in five career starts against the Angels (Rays are 2-3), including a 4-0 loss on May 23 in which he gave up four runs on seven hits over 7 1/3 innings. Ramirez came into the 2017 having never started a major-league game but he is the team's leader in victories (eight) after making 17 starts prior to the All-Star break (Angels are 10-7). He beat Texas 3-0 in his last start before the break, allowing just two hits in six scoreless innings. Ramirez defeated Tampa Bay on May 22, when he allowed two runs and six hits over 6 2/3 innings (2.70 ERA). The pick: Cobb has been mentioned as someone the Rays could trade before the non-waiver trading deadline July 31 but Cobb's recent efforts have put the Rays in serious wild card contention and Tampa Bay would surely need both Archer and Cobb in the rotation if the team wants to compete for a playoff spot. This Cobb/Ramirez matchup has the markings of a pitchers duel. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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07-15-17 | BC v. Hamilton UNDER 50 | Top | 41-26 | Loss | -110 | 106 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 BC Lions will play at the 0-2 Hamilton Tiger-Cats Saturday at Tim Hortons Field. The Lions opened the season with a 30-27 home loss to Edmonton but comes into this game playing a third in a row on the road, after winning 28-15 at Toronto and 23-16 at Montreal.he Lions opened the season with a 30-27 home loss to Edmonton. QB Jonathon Jennings is completing 67.6 percent of his passes for 853 yards but has just two TD passes (also has thrown just one INT). BC's defense allowed 30 points in the team's season opener but has since allowed just 15 and 16 points in back-to-back road wins. BC was 12-6 last year and was one of the CFL's better defensive teams (allowed 25.2 PPG) but after three games in 2017, BC is allowing just 20.3 points to rank first among all teams. The Tiger-Cats could use a victory after opening with road losses at Toronto and Saskatchewant. Hamilton is allowing 34.5 points and 509.5 yards per game after two contests and is hoping a return home (first home contest of 2017) will help. Zach Collaros won the starting QB job but he's completing 61.6 percent for a modest 431 yards with one TD and one INT. The pick: A check of the record book reveals that a return home may not be a formula for success regarding the Tiger-Cats. Hamilton hasn’t won a home game since September 16 of last season, which is a stretch of five games, including a home playoff loss. As for BC, the Lions are 12-4 ATS in their last 16 road games, including 2-0 SU & ATS to open the 2017 season on the road. That BC defense has been impressive and Hamilton's offense leaves much to be desired, averaging a CFL-low 18.5 PPG. The Lions will be on the road for a third straight game, so I see a much safer play being on the total. Make the Under a 10*. |
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07-15-17 | Phillies v. Brewers OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers went just 73-89 in 2016, finishing 30 1/2 games behind the Cubs in the NL Central. However, Milwaukee has been one of 2017's biggest surprises in the first half of the season, coming out of the All Star break with a 5 1/2 game lead over the Cubs and finding themselves atop the division. The All-Star break did nothing to slow down the Brewers' mojo, as they maintained their lead over the Cubs (Chicago won 9-8 on Friday) by winning 9-6 at home last night over MLB-worst Philadelphia Phillies. An eight-run second inning (powered by Ryan Braun's sixth career grand slam), was all Milwaukee needed to make it seven wins in its last eight games. Philadelphia remains mired in the NL East basement, as well as owning MLB's worst overall record (29-59), its worst road record (13-34) and its second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2383). The pitching matchup: Aaron Nola (6-6 & 3.59 ERA) starts for the Phillies and Jimmy Nelson (8-4 & 3.30 ERA) for the Brewers. Nola has been Philly's best pitcher since the beginning of June but had his three-start winning streak snapped last time out as he suffered a hard-luck loss to San Diego on July 8, after allowing two runs on four hits in eight innings. He has given up a total of only five runs and recorded 34 strikeouts in 29 1/3 innings (1.53 ERA) over his last four starts and has yielded more than three runs just once in his last seven outings! Nola was superb in his two previous career starts against Milwaukee, allowing one run and striking out 16 over 13 innings while notching a pair of victories (0.69 ERA). Nelson comes into this contest having won each of his last three starts, including a road outing against the New York Yankees on Sunday in which he gave up three runs over five innings. Nelson has posted a 1-1 record and 6.89 ERA in three career outings against Philadelphia (team is 1-2). The pick: The Brewers are playing with supreme confidence (at least for now) and in Nelson, Milwaukee has a pitcher who has gone 4-0 with a 0.97 ERA and 45 strikeouts in 37 innings) over his last five Miller Park starts. His lone no-decision in that span came in a game in which Nelson tossed eight scoreless innings (11-0 KW ratio) but Milwaukee would lose 2-1 in 12 innings (Nelson's mound opponent was some guy named Kershaw). At first blush this looks like an under but is either pitcher really as good as he has looked lately? I think not. Nola's career ERA is 4.08, Nelson's is 4.16 plus Philly's bullpen ERA is 4.54 and Milwaukee's 4.04. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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07-15-17 | Nationals -171 v. Reds | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats, owners of MLB's second-largest division lead, returned from the break and right out of the gate got a four-game series at Cincinnati against the last-place (NL Central) Reds. Bryce Harper hit a pair of HRs in Friday's 5-0 victory, as the Nationals improved to 6-2 in their last eight contests overall and upped their road record to an impressive 27-17. The Reds fell to 23-21 at home and 39-50 overall, 10 1/2 games out of first in their division. The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (10-5 & 2.10 ERA) gets the nod for Washington and Luis Castillo (1-1 & 3.13 ERA) for Cincinnati. Scherzer settled for a no-decision in his final start before the All-Star break, allowing four runs on six hits over 7 2/3 innings but the Nationals went on to beat Atlanta 5-4. The NL's All Star game starter had permitted two or fewer ERs in his previous eight starts, going 6-2 in that stretch. Scherzer is 1-1 with a 3.38 ERA in three career starts against the Reds (teams are 1-2). Castillo is a rookie who has given up two or fewer runs in three of his first four major-league starts. He earned his first victory last time out with 6 2/3 scoreless innings at Arizona, as the Reds won 7-0. He owns a 30-10 KW ratio over 23 innings in his four starts. Castillo allowed five hits and two runs on solo homers by Brian Goodwin and Anthony Rendon in five innings and was in line for the win before a blown save led to a 6-5 Washington win back on June 23 in his MLB debut. The pick: Scherzer over Castillo (fifth career start) is a "no-brainer," as he takes major league-best 2.10 ERA and NL-leading 173 strikeouts into Saturday's start. Scherzer also has the added bonus in that the Nationals feature a lineup that includes the National League's top three hitters, Murphy (.342), Harper (.327) and Zimmerman (.327). You don't see that too often! Make the Nats an 8* play. |
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07-15-17 | Yankees v. Red Sox -164 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -164 | 8 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: New York/Boston is one of the best rivalries in any sport. The Red Sox took the first of this three-game series Friday night 5-4 with a two-run rally in the bottom of the ninth off Yankee closer Aroldis Chapman. The Yankees have now dropped 19 of 26 and have fallen 4 1/2-games back of Boston in the AL East (that division deficit matches a season high). The loss also represents just the latest bullpen disaster for New York, which has now lost five straight one-run games! It took a while for Boston to getting going in 2017, as the Red Sox were only 21-21 through games played May 20 but they began a six-game winning streak on May 21 and Boston has gone 30-18 since being 21-21, surging to the top of the division. The pitching matchup: It's a battle of All Stars on Saturday, with Luis Severino (5-4 & 3.54 ERA) facing Chris Sale (11-4 & 2.75 ERA). Severino entered the break on a high note after fanning 10 in seven solid innings against Milwaukee last Saturday. He has 29 strikeouts against just three walks over his last three starts and is fourth in the AL (Sale is first) with a strikeout-to-walk ratio of 4.59. He pitched seven scoreless innings in a win at Fenway Park on April 26 but is 1-3 with a 4.07 ERA in five career games (four starts) versus Boston. Sale dropped his first-half finale after giving up four runs in seven innings at Tampa Bay on July 6 but he did finish with 12 strikeouts and no walks in the 4-1 loss. Sale's been great at Fenway in 2017, going 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in eight starts (Sox are 7-1). The pick: Four days after starting the All-Star Game for the AL, Sale will make his first start of the second half of the season Saturday afternoon. Sale has lived up to all of Boston's expectations so far, entering the break leading the majors in strikeouts (178) while ranking near the top of any number of other major statistical categories. In eight career starts vs. New York, he owns a 1.54 ERA. What's not to like about Sale over a struggling New York team? Make Boston a 10* play. |
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07-14-17 | Indians v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up:The defending AL champion Indians have struggled at home in 2017, going 21-24. However, the team's 26-16 road record is good enough to give them a 21/2 game lead in the AL Central as the second half begins. The A's are just 39-50 (a whopping 21 games back of the Astros in the AL West), while they battle the 38-49 White Sox and 39-49 Tigers for the AL's worst record. The Cleveland Indians visit the Oakland Athletics on Friday for the opener of their three-game series, as the team begins the second half with a six-game trip to the Bay Area (three games at San Francisco will be next). It's a good opportunity to stretch the team's AL Central lead, drawing two last-place teams as all teams return to play after the All Star break: The pitching matchup: Carlos Carrasco (10-3 & 3.44 ERA) will start for the Indians and Sonny Gray (4-4 & 4.00 ERA) for the A's Carrasco has won five consecutive decisions, as well as seeing the Indians win 12 of his last 13 starts, overall. Cleveland is 14-3 in all of his starts in 2017, giving him MLB's fourth-best moneyline mark at plus-$818. Carrasco improved to 3-0 with a 1.80 ERA in five career appearances (four starts / teams are 3-1) against Oakland on May 29, when he gave up two runs on four hits in seven innings. Gray has produced three straight strong starts, going 2-1 while allowing five runs - four earned - over 21 innings during that span (1.71 ERA). Gray fell to 2-2 and saw his ERA rise to 4.00 in six career starts ((A's are 3-3) versus the Indians on May 30, when he was tagged for seven runs on nine hits over 4 2/3 innings at Cleveland. The pick: I wouldn't want to buck the Indians here but I also like the way Gray is beginning to find his form, after a late start to the season due to injury. That said, expecting the A's to reach Carrasco would be a stretch, considering he has a 7-1 record and 2.38 ERA in nine road starts (team is 8-1) while limiting opponents to a .197 batting average. Make the Under a 10*. |
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07-14-17 | Ottawa +6 v. Edmonton | Top | 21-23 | Win | 100 | 84 h 50 m | Show |
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07-14-17 | Phillies v. Brewers -158 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers went 73-89 in 22016, finishing 30 1/2 games back of the eventual World Series-winning Cubs. However, the Brewers open the second half of the 2017 season at ,50-41, giving them a 5 1/2 game lead on the Cubs in the NL Central. The Phillies finished just two games worse than the Brewers last season (71--91) but unlike Milwaukee, Philadelphia gets back on the field owning MLB's worst record (29-58), which puts them on pace to win only 54 games. Philadelphia also owns the second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$2287), besting only the hard-to-explain SF Giants. The pitching matchup: Nick Pivetta (2-4 & 4.73 ERA) will get the nod for the Phillies and Zach Davies (10-4 & 4.90 ERA) for the Brewers. Pivetta continues to struggle allowing HRs, giving up 12 in his 11 starts to begin his MLB career. The Phiilies are 3-8 in all of his starsts, including 2-5 on the road where his ERA is 5.56 and his WHIP is 1.76. This marks his first career start against the Brewers. Davies won his third straight start and improved to 5-1 in his last seven outings on July 6, allowing just two runs on five hits in six innings of an 11-2 rout of the Chicago Cubs. "Personally, (10 wins is) something that kind of makes you happy," the 24-year-old told reporters. "There are personal goals that you want to hit, but at the same time, we want to play in October." Davies struggled in his lone encounter versus Philadelphia, taking the loss after permitting four runs on nine hits in six innings of a 5-2 setback on April 22, 2016. The pick: The Brewers aren't just leading the NL Central, they are also one of MLB's best money-making teams in 2017, checking in at plus-$1762 (third-best among all teams). Davies has been a HUGE surprise, with Milwaukee going 12-6 in his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$787, which ranks fifth among all starters in 2017. The Phillies are 13-33 on the road and open the second half averaging 3.82 RPG, ranking 29th of 30 teams. Make the Brewers an 8*. |
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07-14-17 | Rockies v. Mets -135 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 19 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets opened the 2017 season off a World Series appearance in 2015 and an 87-win 2016 season (NL wild card) while the Rockies last had a winning record in 2010 and came into this season having averaged a modest 70 wins per, over that six-year drought. However, as all teams return from the four-day All Star break, it's the Rockies who are 'smelling' the 2017 playoffs, not the Mets. Yes, Colorado lost has 13 of 18 heading into the break but while they are 9 1/2 games back of the NL West-leading Dodgers, the team's 52-39 record gives them a 7 1/2 game cushion over the Cubs for the NL's second wild card spot. In stark contrast, the 39-47 Mets are 12 games back of the Nats in the NL East and almost as far back in the wild card standings (10 1/2 back). The pitching matchups; Jon Gray (2-0 & 3.75 ERA) will start for Colorado and Jacob deGrom (9-3 & 3.65 ERA) for New York in a matchup of ace right-handers. Gray has been limited to just five starts in 2017 but has won both his starts since returning from an 11-week absence due to a stress fracture in his left foot. He earned the victory in his most recent outing on July 5, giving up three runs (two earned) over 5 2/3 innings as the Rockies defeated the Cincinnati Reds, 5-3. Gray allowed five ERs in his 2017 debut (4/3) but in his other four, owns a 2.25 ERA. DeGrom has been the only Mets starter to remain on the field and meet expectations this season. Opening Day starter Noah Syndergaard (lat) and former ace Matt Harvey (shoulder) remain on the shelf. DeGrom won his fifth straight start in his most recent appearance last Friday, when he allowed four runs over seven innings as the Mets beat the Cardinals, 6-5. He has a 1.62 ERA in the five consecutive wins. The pick: Colorado's recent woes remain a concern and the jury is still out on Gray (is he 100% healthy?), as the second half opens. It's a small sample size but Gray does own a 6.13 ERA in three career starts vs. the Mets. In contrast, deGrom owns an 0.95 ERA in four career starts against the Rockies and does come in off five straight wins, pitching seven-plus inning in each one. Make the Mets a 10* play. |
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07-13-17 | Toronto +3 v. Winnipeg | Top | 25-33 | Loss | -110 | 59 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Toronto Argonauts and 1-1 Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Thursday at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. Toronto QB Ricky Ray has completed 70.1 percent of his passes for 1,199 yards with four TDs and just one interception. He may have had just one TD pass in last week's home win over Hamilton but he threw for 506 yards and did not throw an INT in 41 pass attempts, while leading the Argos to 32 points. The defense was excellent, holding the Tiger-Cats to 15 points on 258 yards with just 12 FDs. Toronto is allowing 22.7 points and 361 YPG after three games (more on that later). Winnipeg opened with a 43-40 OT win at Saskatchewan but then returned home to lose 29-10 to Calgary. QB Matt Nichols threw for 331 yards with four TDs and just one INT in beating the Roughriders but was not nearly as good against Calgary, with two INTs and one TD pass, while leading the Blue Bombers to just 10 points! |
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07-09-17 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 5-3 | Push | 0 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tigers will attempt not to get swept in this three-game series at Cleveland tonight on ESPN. Detroit lost 11-2 on Friday and 4-0 on Saturday, falling 10 games below .500 (38-48) and nine games behind the AL Central-leading Indians, who are 47-39. The Tigers are 9-19 since June 8, while the defending AL champs are 16-8 since June 15. Cleveland leads the AL with a 3.77 team ERA, and their starting pitchers own a 1.96 ERA in their last seven games. Getting back to Detroit, manager Brad Ausmus is emphasizing that there is still the second half of the season to play. "It's a 162-game season and this team is built for 162 games," he said. "I'm confident the guys will bounce back." Methinks that Ausmus is 'whistling past the graveyard!' |
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07-08-17 | Hamilton +1.5 v. Saskatchewan | Top | 20-37 | Loss | -110 | 108 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The Hamilton Tiger-Cats and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet Saturday in CFL action at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan. Both teams are looking for their first win of 2017, as Hamilton has opened 0-1 and Saskatchewan 0-2. The Tiger-Cats lost 32-15 at Toronto in Week 1 and took last week off. Zach Collaros won the starting QB job but threw for a modest 242 yards in Week 1, without a TD pass and one INT. Running games are not the most important aspect of any CFL team but Hamilton will need to improve on its 16 yard rushing effort against the Argonauts! It's been "close but no cigar" for the Roughriders to open the 2017 season. They lost 17-16 at Montreal in Week 1, then lost 43-40 (in OT) at home to Winnipeg in Week 2. QB Kevin Glenn is completing 72 percent of his passes for 675 yards, five touchdowns and three interceptions. The running game has averaged 61.5 yards per contest. The defense played well in Week 1 but then allowed 43 points on 430 yards in Week 2 (team also allowed 261 return yards). |
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07-08-17 | A's v. Mariners OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle finally halted an eight-game home losing streak with Friday's 7-2 victory over Oakland. Nelson Cruz drove in five runs and hit the 300th HR of his career to lead the way. Both teams are far behind the Astros in the AL West but as I often note, at this point of the season, the AL wild card race remains reasonably open. Either team could sure use a two-game sweep over the weekend, with 42-46 Seattle trailing the second wild card spot by four games and 38-49 Oakland finding itself 7 1/2 games back. |
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07-08-17 | White Sox v. Rockies -130 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockies got a much-needed 12-4 win last night in the first of a three-game home IL series with the White Sox. Colorado had hoped to make a move this week while the last-place Reds (NL Central) and last-place White Sox (AL Central) came to Coors Field. However, the Rockies were able to do no better than a 2-2 split against the Reds and last night's win over the White Sox was just the team's fourth in its last 16 games. One of the main reasons Chicago is a last-place team is that the White Sox are now 18-30 road, after allowed 26 runs in losing three straight away games. The pitching matchup: Jose Quintana (4-8 & 4.45 ERA) will start for Chicago and Jeff Hoffman (5-1 & 4.01 ERA) for Colorado. It has not been a good season for the Chicago lefty, whose ERA is about one run higher than his career average of 3.51. Quintana defeated the Rockies in his lone career start against them when he gave up two runs on five hits over seven innings on April 8, 2014. Hoffman is serving up an excellent rookie season, with the Rockies having won six of his eight starts in 2017. He faces Chicago for the first time in this one. |
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07-08-17 | Royals v. Dodgers UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers beat the Royals 4-1 in Friday's opener of this three-game IL series and have won 24 of their last 28 games heading into Saturday’s contest (Dodgers are a MLB-best 37-11 at home). The Kansas City Royals saw their four-game winning streak come to an end on Friday’s series opener but they've won 22 of their last 33 games to get within two games of the first-place Indians in the AL Central. |
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07-08-17 | Pirates v. Cubs -175 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -175 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up; The defending champion Cubs won 6-1 last night over the Pirates, reaching .500 (43-43) for the 20th time this season. However, Chicago hasn't won consecutive games since taking three straight from June 18-20. The Cubs have two games left before the break and currently have fallen 4 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central, as the Brewers have won five in a row. Friday’s loss snapped a three-game winning streak for the Pirates, who at 40-47, sit eight games back in the NL Central plus are even further back in the wild card standings (10 games behind the second wild card spot).
The pitching matchup: Ivan Nova (8-6 & 3.24 ERA) takes the mound for Pittsburgh and Jake Arrieta (8-6 & 4.33 ERA) for Chicago. Nova was rolling with seven quality starts in an eight-game stretch from May 9 through June 17 but has now failed to a record quality start in any of his last three (1-2 with a 5.00 ERA). Nova beat the Cubs 4-3 on June 17 in Pittsburgh, limiting them to three runs on six hits in seven innings, in what is his lone career start against the Cubs. Arrieta turned in his best outing of the season Sunday at Cincinnati, holding the Reds to one hits over seven scoreless innings in a 6-2 win. The question is whether he can do it again, as he’s had consecutive quality starts only twice this season. Arrieta went 9-1 with a 1.46 ERA in his first 12 outings against the Pirates but he's 0-3 in his last five with a 7.81 ERA. The pick: This is the best Nova has pitched since he went 10-3 in 17 starts in 2012 with the New York Yankees, prior to that year's All Star break. Still, I'm not quite sold. Yes, it's been a tough first half for Arrieta, but he's pitched solidly at Wrigley in 2017, going 3-0 (team is 4-1) in a modest five starts in the "Friendly Confines." Make the Cubs an 8* play. |
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07-08-17 | Padres v. Phillies -142 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -142 | 8 h 60 m | Show |
The set: The 37-49 Padres and the 28-57 Phillies continue their three-game set tonight in Philadelphia. San Diego Padres catcher Austin Hedges, who leads NL catchers with 13 HRs, went deep in each of his first two at-bats in his first career start at Citizens Bank Park and after a long rain delay before delivered a go-ahead sacrifice fly in the ninth to give San Diego a 4-3 victory. It marked the Padres' fourth win in five games, while the Phillies dropped their fourth straight contest. Neither team is going anywhere in 2017, as San Diego is 21 games back of the Dodgers in the NL West and Phildelphia sits 22 1/2 games back of the Nats in the NL East. |
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07-08-17 | Astros v. Blue Jays -104 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 5 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros own MLB's best overall record on the strength of the team's outstanding road record. Houston pounded out 14 hits in Friday's a 12-2 victory at Toronto, improving to 21-4 away from home since the middle of May (Astros are 32-10 away from home on the season, owning MLB's best moneyline mark of plus-$). George Springer had four hits (including two HRs) to go along with five RBI. Jose Altuve added three hits for the Astros to raise his major league-leading average to .342, and Carlos Correa hit his 18th HR to extend his hitting streak to 15 games, giving him the longest active run in the majors. The Blue Jays dropped to 40-46 with the loss Friday, leaving them tied with Baltimore in the AL East basement, 9 1/2 games back of the Red Sox. The Blue Jays, who have played in the last two ALCS matchups, just can't seem to get "back in the race," after opening 2017 by going 7-18 in April (started the season 2-11). |
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07-07-17 | A's v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 105 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Almost all AL teams remain within shouting distance of the two wild card spots available, as the 2017 season gets set for its four-day All Star break come Monday. The 41-46 Mariners may be 17 1/2 games back of the Astros in the AL West and the 38-48 A's find themselves 20 games back but Seattle is much more modest 4 1/2 games out of the final AL wild card spot, while the A's are seven-back (granted, it's a VERY crowed field!). The teams opened a four-game series Thursday night with the A's winning 7-4, which drops Seattle to 0-4 on its current homestand, as well as making it eight straight home losses for the Mariners. No way Seattle has any chance at a wild card spot if it doesn't turn around its fortunes at home. As for the A's, they've been an awful road team all season, as Thursday's win leaves them just 13-27 away from home on the season. The pitching staff: Sean Manaea (7-4 & 3.75 ERA) gets the nod for Oakland and James Paxton (6-3 & 3.27 ERA) for Seattle. Manaea settled for a no-decision against Atlanta on Sunday but continued his good pitching, allowing just two runs on six hits in a season-high 7 1/3 innings. He is now 6-2 since coming off the DL in mid-May, a span of 10 starts (A's are 7-3). He's given up more than three runs only twice in those 10 outings, although his first start back from the DL came on May 15 against the Mariners, when he allowed four runs on two hits and five walks in five innings in a 6-5 loss. He's 3-1 with a 4.50 ERA in five career starts (team is 3-2) against Seattle. Paxton halted a four-start win-less drought (he was 0-3 and the team 1-3) when he limited the Angels to one run on two hits over 6 1/3 innings at Los Angeles in a 5-3 win. Paxton is 2-0 with a 4.13 ERA in four career starts against the Athletics (team is 3-1), including a no-decision at Oakland on April 20 in which he surrendered five runs on nine hits over 4 1/3 Innings. The pick: Last night's game finished with 11 runs and 21 hits. Seattle pitching has now allowed 24 runs in its last three games and note that Paxton struggled in his lone appearance against the A's this season. Yes, Manaea is in a nice groove but he's no Kershaw. Oakland is allowing 5.38 RPG on the road in 2017 and the Mariners, despite their struggles at home, are averaging 5.07 RPG at Safeco. With neither bullpen offering much relief (Seattle's bullpen ERA is 4.31 and Oakland's is 4.97), the Over is a 10* play. |
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07-07-17 | Calgary -3 v. Winnipeg | Top | 29-10 | Win | 100 | 82 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Calgary Stampeders and Winnipeg Blue Bombers meet Friday in CFL action at Investors Group Field in Winnipeg. The Stampeders have opened the 2017 season with back-to-back games against Ottawa, winning 43-39 at home in Week 1 and then playing to a 31-31 tie in Week 2 at Ottawa. QB Bo Levi Mitchell is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 671 yards and is off to a great start with seven TD passes without an INT (he has 37 TD passes over his last 19 games). However, Calgary's defense is not off to a good start, allowing 35 points and 461 yards per game. The Winnipeg Blue Bombers didn't play in Week 1 but were able to outlast the Saskatchewan Roughriders 43-40 in double overtime last week on the road. QB Matt Nichols is off to a strong start, completing 63.9 percent of his passes last week for 331 yards with four TDs and just one interception. |
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07-07-17 | Tigers v. Indians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-11 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The 38-46 Detroit Tigers and the 45-39 Cleveland Indians open a three-game series at Progressive Field tonight, as MLB teams get ready for a four-day All Star break, beginning Monday. The Tigers capped a 5-4 homestand with a 6-2 win over the Giants on Thursday and enter this series seven games back of Cleveland. The Indians, the defending AL Champs, are clinging to first in the AL Central, leading the Royals by just one game and the Twins by 1 1/2. The team's home woes were not in evidence in Thursday's 11-2 rout of San Diego but that victory gives the Indians a poor 19-23 home mark. What a difference a year makes. The Indians went 53-28 at Progressive Field in 2016 (only the Cubs won more home games) and finished plus-$1230 against the moneyline. In stark contrast, the team's home moneyline mark in 2017 is minus-$22456, more than $1000 worse than MLB's second-worst home team's mark! The pitching matchup: Jordan Zimmermann (5-6 & 5.58 ERA) starts for Detroit and Carlos Carrasco (9-3 & 3.50 ERA) for Cleveland. Zimmermann allowed a four-run sixth against the Indians just this past Saturday, losing to Carrasco and the Indians 4-1. That makes him 0-2 in his last five outings (Tigers are 1-4). He has been plagued by the home run ball all season, surrendering four in his last three outings and 21 in 16 starts on the season. Zimmermann is 0-2 with a 10.67 ERA over three career starts against Cleveland (teams are 1-2). Carrasco allowed just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts on Saturday against the Tigers, improving to 4-0 in his last five starts overall (Indians are 5-0). He's 2-1 with a 2.29 ERA in three outings versus Detroit this season but just 7-7 with a 4.69 ERA against them in 17 career starts (teams are 9-8). The pick: In this quick pitching "re-hook" from Saturday, expect a similar effort from the starters. Zimmermann had thrown five scoreless inning until the sixth and as already noted, Carrasco yielded just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts in seven innings. So what else is new? Carrasco has allowed two runs or fewer in 11 of his 16 starts this season. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-06-17 | A's v. Mariners UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland has endured slides of six, four and six contests since June 7, with a pair of four-game winning streaks in between, a model of inconsistency. The A's visit Seattle tonight to open a four-game series with the Mariners off back-to-back home wins over the White Sox, giving them a 38-45 record overall, leaving them in last-place in the AL West (21 games back of Houston). Seattle welcomes Oakland to town but the Mariners are on a seven-game home losing streak. Seattle allowed four runs in the first inning last night to Kansas City but was able to take a 6-4 lead, before losing 9-6 in 10 innings. Seattle sits just 41-45 on the season (17 1/2 games back of Houston) but can hold out a sliver of hope, as the Mariners are just four games out of the final wild card spot in the AL. However, to say the least, it's a crowded field. The pitching matchup: A pair of rookie hurlers take the mound tonight, Paul Blackburn (0-0 & 0.00 ERA) for Oakland and Sam Gaviglio (3-3 & 3.48 ERA) for Seattle. Blackburn was impressive in his major-league debut on Saturday, allowing just one unearned run on three hits over six innings of a no-decision against Atlanta (Braves won 4-3). Before getting called up, he posted a 5-6 record and 3.05 ERA in 15 appearances (14 starts) for Triple-A Nashville. Blackburn will be starting against his former organization, as he was acquired from Seattle in November for Danny Valencia. Gaviglio will be making his 10th start of 2017 in this one but comes in win-less in his last three, despite allowing three runs or fewer each time. He suffered a second straight loss Saturday, when he gave up three runs on five hits over a career-high 6 1/3 innings in a 4-0 road loss against the Los Angeles Angels. Gaviglio will be facing Oakland for the first time. The pick: Blackburn sure looked good in his debut and let's note that Gaviglio has worked at least five innings in each of his nine starts in his rookie season. Gaviglio should have little trouble with the A's, who are 13-27 on the road, averaging just 3.92 RPG. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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07-06-17 | BC v. Montreal OVER 49.5 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -115 | 57 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The BC Lions and Montreal Alouettes meet Thursday in CFL action at Molson Stadium in Montreal. Both teams have opened the 2017 season 1-1. The Lions opened with a 30-27 home loss to Edmonton but then rebounded with an impressive 28-15 road win at Toronto over the Argonauts. BC has scored 27 and 28 points in the season's first two games but QB Jonathon Jennings has just one TD pass (also just one INT), after throwing for 27 last season, against a modest 15 INTs. The BC defense is coming off an excellent effort, allowing just 15 points at Toronto on yards 349 yards. The Lions allowed 25.2 PPG in 2016 while going 12-6 and after two contests, have allowed just 22.5 PPG . The Alouettes edged Saskatchewan 17-16 at home to open the season but then lost 23-19 last week at Edmonton. QB Darian Durant is completing 61.8 percent of his passes for a modest 399 yards with three TDs and one INT, as Montreal's offense is averaging a league-low 18.0 PPG among teams to have played each of the first two weeks. Defensively, Montreal is allowing 19.5 points and 383.5 YPG. The pick: Montreal was no match for BC in 2016, as the Lions scored 38 points in both meetings, winning by 11 points in BC and 20 points in Montreal. The Lions are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 road games, while the Alouettes are only 3-10 ATS in their last 13 home games. I expect BC to have little trouble scoring again in this one. As for Montreal, the Alouettes traded for Duarnt prior to the 2017 season, getting him from Saskatchewan where he had been a fixture. He was expected to give Montreal's offense a significant boost but that has yet to be the case. How about a break out game here? History tells us seven of the last nine meetings between these two teams in Montreal have gone over, so why not? Make the Over a 10* play. |
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07-06-17 | Red Sox -160 v. Rays | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -160 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox sat at 21-21 in games played through May 20. However, despite seeing their six-game winnings streak snapped last night in an 8-2 loss at Texas, the Red Sox open a four-game series at Tampa Bay tonight against the Rays, having won 28 of their last 43 games. The 49-36 Red Sox come into the final four days before the break four games better than the Yankees in the AL East and 5 1/2 games better than the third-place Rays, who are 44-42. Tampa Bay reached a season-high four games above .500 on June 27 but enter this series having lost six of its last 10. |
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07-06-17 | MIAMI v. ST. LOUIS -148 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Cardinals earned series wins over two of MLB's best teams, Arizona and Washington, before heading into the final week before the All-Star break with series at home against the Marlins and the Mets. Both of those teams are below .500 and the Cards hoped that a "big week" could get them to .500 (Cards opened the week three games under) by the break. However, after winning 14-6 on Monday to reach 40-42, St. Louis has dropped back-to-back games to fall to 40-44 with four games reamaining this week. Now, only four wins in a row will get St. Louis to the .500 mark by the break. Miami hit four HRs in Wednesday's 9-6 win, after Yelich hit a three-run HR to lead Tuesday's 5-2 victory. The back-to-back wins has temporarily put an end to a stretch in which the now 38-45 Marlins had lost five of seven. The pitching matchup: Tom Koehler (1-3 & 8.33 ERA) takes the mound for Miami and Michael Wacha (5-3 & 4.16 ERA) for St. Louis. Koehler had arm troubles and was put on the DL shortly after getting ripped for eight ERs in just three innings by Houston on May 16. He made his first appearance since that time on July 1 and again was lit up for seven runs on six hits and a pair of walks in just 1 2/3 innings at Milwaukee. Koehler started against St. Louis back on May 10 but did not factor in the decision after allowing four runs on five hits in 5 1/3 innings. It surely not good news for Miami that he's 1-3 with 7.62 ERA in five career starts against St. Louis (teams are 1-4) . Could Wacha be coming around? He's dominated in his last two starts, recording a pair of wins while allowing a total of just one run on nine hits in 12 innings (0.75 ERA). He struck out a season-high nine over six innings against Washington on Saturday while issuing one walk. Wacha has just two career starts against Miami, going 1-0 with a 5.40 ERA (Cards are 1-1). The pick: Koehler has not completed six innings in any of his last five major-league appearances (Miami is 1-4 in that stretch) and on the season, he owns a 1.78 WHIP and .311 BAA to go along with his ugly 8.33 ERA. He has also surrendered 11 HRs in 40 overall innings. Then, there's his awful lifetime mark against St. Louis. With Wacha coming off back-to-back strong outings plus his 2.91 ERA in 10 home starts in 2017, what' not to like about St. Louis? Make the Cards a 10* play. |
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07-05-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Diamondbacks were hoping to close the gap on the first-place Los Angeles Dodgers in the NL West with a three-game series that began July 4th at Dodger Stadium. Things didn't go as planned Tuesday night, as a 4-3 loss to the Dodgers dropped the D'backs 3 1/2 games back of LA. Catching LA will not be easy, as the 56-29 Dodgers have won 21 of their past 25 games and own a major-league-best 34-11 home record, including 13-1 in the past 14 games at Dodger Stadium. LA owns a plus-154 run differential, which would tie the 1976 Cincinnati Reds for second best among NL teams heading into the All-Star break. Getting back to Arizona, it's been a remarkable turn around from 2016, when the team finished 69-93, 18 games out of a wild card spot. Arizona comes into tonight's game 52-32 (No. 1 wild card spot), which gives them a 10 1/2-game cushion in the wild card chase! |
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07-05-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers UNDER 11 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 108 | 14 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston rookie Andrew Benintendi knocked in the go-ahead runs in Monday's 7-5 Red Sox win in 11 innings, then went 5-for-5 with two HRs, six RBI and four runs scored in July 4th's 11-4 rout of the Rangers (Aaron Judge, who?). Boston has now won six straight (eight of nine) and will go for a three-game sweep of the Rangers in Texas on Wednesday night. The Rangers have now lost three straight and six of their last seven, with the team's pitching staff allowing at least five runs in each of those six setbacks. At 40-44, Texas now trails Houston by 17 games in the AL West. Meanwhile, after some early struggles, 49-35 Boston now leads the Yankees by four full games in the AL East |
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07-05-17 | White Sox v. A's -175 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The A's snapped a six-game slide on a walk-off HR last night. Oakland owns the AL's worst record (36-48) and Chicago its second-worst mark (37-46), as the two teams meet in the rubber match of this three-games series Wednesday afternoon. The A's are 23-21 at home and the White Sox just 18-28 on the road. The pitching matchup: Mike Pelfrey (3-6 & 4.13 ERA) gets the nod for Chicago and Sonny Gray (3-4 & 4.09 ERA) for the A's. Pelfrey had a no-decision versus Texas in his last start, despite giving up five runs on eight hits (over five innings) and surrendering a pair of HRs for the second straight start. He has only one win in his last seven outings (six starts), although Chicago is 3-3 in those starts. That stretch includes a 3-0 home loss to the A's on June 23, which leaves him 0-5 in five career starts against Oakland, along with a bloated 7.56 ERA in those contests! Gray got a late start to the 2017 season due to injury but is coming off one of his best performances in his last outing, although he suffered a hard-luck loss. He allowed just one run on two hits over a season-high eight innings against Atlanta on June 30 (Braves won 3-1). Gray also was superb in his previous outing, beating the White Sox 5-3 in Chicago with seven strong innings of two-run ball (one earned). That gives him a 2-0 record (4.13 ERA) in four career starts vs. Chicago, although the A's are just 2-2. The pick: Two bad teams here but with Chicago's poor 18-28 record and Pelfrey's downright 'ugly' 0-5 (7.56 ERA) career mark against the A's, Oakland has to be the 8* play. |
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07-05-17 | Rays v. Cubs -153 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Everyone keeps waiting for the Chicago Cubs to recapture the magic from their World Series run last October but after losing the first of a two-game IL series at home to the Tampa Bay Rays on July 4, the Cubs sit 41-42. The Cubs fell to 1-6 in interleague play this season after going 15-5 against AL clubs in 2016. About the only good news for Chicago fans is that despite a sub-.500 record, the Cubs are only 3 1/2 games out of first in the NL Central. The teams wrap up this two-game set this afternoon and while the Cubs have dropped five of their last seven games, the Rays have won three of their last four and check in at 44-41, putting them in a virtual three-way tie for the AL's second wild card spot. The pitching matchup: Blake Snell (0-5 & 5.36 ERA) starts for Tampa and John Lackey (5-9 & 5.24 ERA) for Chicago. It' been a rough season so far for Snell (I'm being kind here), The pick: Lackey hasn’t faced the Rays since 2014 but I favor the vet over Snell, who is 1-7 with a 4.64 ERA in 14 career road starts and hasn't had a big league victory since September 22, 2016. Snell was recalled from the minors to start this past Friday (his first big league appearance since mid-May) and allowed four hits, five walks and six ERs in five inning at Pittsburgh. Make the Cubs.an 8* play. |
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07-04-17 | Reds v. Rockies -143 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -143 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockies returned home on Monday after going 1-8 on a nine-game road trip to LA, SF and Arizona. Overall, the Rockies had lost 10 of 11 but Colorado was set to play seven games at home this week prior to the All, Star break and its opponents were two last-place teams, the Cincinnati Reds and the Chicago White Sox. Colorado opened the week seven games back in the NL West but this homestand gave them an opportunity to pick up the pieces form a disastrous two-week slide. The Reds were up first and Colorado came through win a 5-3 win. It should be no surprise that the Reds lost on the road, as they are now 12-27 away from home, getting outscored 5.97-to-4.26 RPG. The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (0-2 & 27.00 ERA) starts for the Reds and Kyle Freeland (8-6 & 3.84 ERA) for the Rockies. Bailey, the owner of two career no-hitters, has struggled mightily in two starts since returning from elbow surgery, allowing 14 runs on 12 hits over 4 2/3 innings. He is 2-2 with a 4.43 ERA in seven career starts against the Rockies (team is 2-5). Freeland is making a case for being one of 2017's best rookie pitchers. He has completed at least six innings in 11 of his last 13 starts (Rockies are 10-6 in his starts). Freeland won at Cincinnati back on May 21 despite allowing four runs in 5 2/3 innings, his only outing against the Reds. The pick: I backed the Rockies Monday and do so again here, as Colorado averages 5.,79 RPG at Coors this season and in the case of Bailey, will be facing a pitcher who may not be long for the majors. Make Colorado a 10* play, again. |
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07-04-17 | Red Sox v. Rangers UNDER 9 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -113 | 20 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Red Sox are beginning to show more of a consistent offense. The team's 7-5 win (11 innings) over Texas in Monday’s series opener gives Boston five consecutive victories in which the team has scored at least six runs games. While the Yankees have struggled since mid-June, Boston has surged in that same time frame and Monday's win keeps the first-place Red Sox three games clear of the rival New York Yankees in the AL East (Boston is 48-35 and New York 44-37). The Rangers are stuck in the AL West with the Astros (owners of MLB's best record at 56-27) and have lost five of their last six to fall three games under .500 (40-43) and 16 games back of Houston. The pitching matchup: David Price (3-2 & 4.61 ERA) takes the mound for Boston and Yu Darvish (6-6 & 3.11 ERA) for Texas. Price got a late start to the 2017 season due to injury and has also been sidetracked by getting into fights with local reporters and broadcasters. However, he is beginning to pitch well, entering this July 4 contest with a string of four straight starts of allowing three or fewer ERs. He matched season highs with seven strikeouts and seven innings pitched against Minnesota on Thursday and did not walk a batter in a 6-3 win. Price has had much success against Texas in his career though, going 3-9 with a 5.42 ERA in 17 starts (teams are better though with an 8-9 record, despite that high ERA). Darvish has pitched well lately, allowing a total of just two ERs over 13 innings in the last two starts. Darvish may be just 6-6 on the season but he has surrendered more than three runs just once in his last 13 outings and is holding opponents to a .205 batting average. Darvish hasn't faced Boston since 2014 and is 1-1 with a 3.63 ERA and 35 strikeouts in 22 1/3 innings over three starts against the Red Sox in his career (Texas is 2-1). The pick: Two All-Stars caliber pitchers take the mound in this one and both have pitched well as of late. With that in mind, the Under is a 10* play. |
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07-04-17 | White Sox v. A's -155 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The A's swept the three-game series against the White Sox in Chicago from June 23-25 but opened a three-game home series with Chicago by losing 7-2 on Monday night. The defeat marks Oakland's sixth straight overall and the 35-48 A's also fell for the eighth straight time at home (both streaks are season highs!). The 37-45 White Sox are hardly making a surge but they have now won four of their past five games. The pitching matchup: James Shields (2-1 & 3.98 ERA) will get the nod for Chicago and Daniel Gossett (1-3 & 5.57 ERA) for Oakland. Shields had a nightmare 2016 season pitching first for San Diego and then Chicago, but opened the 2017 season allowing exactly one run in each of his first three starts (he was 1-0 and Chicago 2-1 while posting a 1.62 ERA). However, a strained right lat sidelined him for two months. He is coming off his first win in three starts since returning, a 4-3 triumph over the New York Yankees on Thursday in which he allowed three runs (two earned) and five hits over 6 1/3 innings. Shields was battered for six runs on seven hits and three walks in three innings of a June 24 start in Chicago, losing 10-2. That setback evened Shields' career record against the Athletics at 6-6 and raised his ERA to 4.64 in 18 outings (teams are 10-8). Gossett allowed five runs on seven hits over five innings in a 6-1 loss at Houston on Thursday and will be making just his fifth overall start in the major leagues. Gossett posted his only career win opposite Shields at Chicago on June 24 after giving up two unearned runs and five hits in six innings of that 10-2 rout. The pick: The A's are in a slump but the White Sox are still just 18-27 on the road and it sure doesn't help that their closer, David Robertson, is on the paternity list and is expected to miss the entire three-game series. Make Oakland an 8* play. |
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07-04-17 | Giants v. Tigers UNDER 10 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The San Francisco Giants are suffering through a 'nightmare' season in 2017 (33-51, 22 games back in the NL West) but will take a season-high six wins in a row into this three-game IL series in Detroit against the Tigers. Like the Giants, the Tigers had Monday off and are also a last-place team at 36-48. Detroit has lost 11 of 15 to find itself saddled with its worst record at the 81-game mark since 2003 but the Tigers are a much more modest eight games out of first in the AL Central plus almost every AL team remains alive in the wild card chase at this stage of the season. The pitching matchup: Matt Cain (3-7 & 5.46 ERA) takes the mound for San Francisco and Michael Fulmer (7-6 & 3.19 ERA) for Detroit. Cain hasn't won since an 8-4 triumph over the Dodgers back on May 15 and saw his win-less stretch extend to eight starts last Tuesday (he's 0-6 and the Giants 2-6) after receiving a no-decision on the heels of allowing three runs on six hits in six innings versus Colorado (SF won 4-3). That game vs. the Rockies concluded a disastrous June in which Cain posted a 7.77 ERA and 2.14 WHIP. Fulmer snapped a three-start losing skid on Thursday in a 7-3 victory over Kansas City. The 2016 AL rookie of the year allowed just two earned runs and struck out seven and was one out shy of a complete game. The pick: The Tigers were 19-7 in Fulmer's starts last year and his moneyline mark of plus-$1292 ws 6th-best in all of MLB but Detroit is a more modest 8-7 in his 2017 starts. However, he happens to be the Tigers' lone All-Star representative. As noted, Cain's off an 'ugly' June but all of a sudden, the Giants are playing much better with the team's pitching staff leading the way by allowing just 17 runs in their six consecutive wins (2.83 per). Expect a decent effort out of Cain and Fulmer sure should be able to handle a San Francisco lineup which ranks 28th in runs scored (3.94 per) plus dead-last (30th) in OPS (.679) and HRs (70). Make the under an 8* play. |
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07-04-17 | Mets v. Nationals -162 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (3-1 & 3.55 ERA) will start in this early first-pitch of 11:05 ET for the Mets and Joe Ross (4-3 & 5.12 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats. Lugo didn't make his 2017 debut until June 11 but won for the third time in four starts this past Thursday 6-3 at Milwaukee. He allowed three runs on six hits over six innings, his third quality start in his four outings.Lugo's lone defeat came in the previously mentioned series back in mid-June at Citi Field, when he surrendered four runs (three earned) in 6 2/3 innings in a 7-4 loss up against Washington's Strasburg. He is 1-1 with a 2.30 ERA in three games against Washington in his career. Ross was demoted to the minors after allowing five runs over four innings on April 30 but he's starting to come around. He did lose at the Mets on June 18 (vs. deGrom), giving up four runs (two earned) and nine hits over six innings but he has bounced back with consecutive strong starts versus Cincinnati and the Chicago Cubs. Ross is just 1-2 with a 4.71 ERA in five career starts (team is 2-3) against the Mets. The pick: Lugo's done a solid job for the Mets since returning in June from a tear of the ulnar collateral ligament in his right elbow. That said, Ross has also been solid since the start of June, allowing two ERs or less in four of his five starts. I won't ignore Washington's 8-3 record against the Mets here in 2017 and will make the Nats an 8* play. |
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07-03-17 | Reds v. Rockies -167 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Rockires are happy to be home, after going 1-8 on a nine-game road trip to LA, SF and Arizona. The Rockies will play seven games at home this week prior to the All, Star break and their opponents will be two last-place teams, the 35-46 Cincinnati Reds and the 36-45 Chicago White Sox. Colorado has dropped 10 of 11 overall, to fall seven games back in the National League West but this homestand against a pair of last-place clubs gives them an opportunity to pick up the pieces. The Reds are up first, coming off winning two of three against the Cubs but Cincy owns a 12-26 road record, getting outscored 6.00-to-4.29 RPG. The pitching matchup: Luis Castillo (0-0 & 3.38 ERA) starts for the Reds and Jeff Hoffman (4-1 & 4.04 ERA) for the Rockies. Castillo is a rookie making just his third ML start. He's pitched in hard luck so far, as he has left with the lead in each of his first two, only to see a pair of blown saves deprive him of a win. He limited Milwaukee to two runs and five hits while striking out nine in 5 2/3 innings on Wednesday. He was 4-4 with a 2.58 ERA at Double-A Pensacola before his recent promotion. Hoffman has seven starts in his eight appearances this season and has allowed two runs or less in five of his last six. This is Castillo's first appearance vs. Colorado and Hoffman's first time seeing Cincinnati. The pick: The Rockies were outscored 53-26 and batted just .211 on their nine-game road trip but they drew one of MLB's worst road teams in the Reds these next four days. Colorado averages 5.81 RPG at home in Coors Field. Yes, the Rockies have lost 10 of 11 but this team still owns MLB's third-best moenyline mark at plus-$1480. It's time to turn things around. Make Colorado a 10* play. |
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07-03-17 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 6-14 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with Friday night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. St. Louis ended June 13-16 and the 139 runs the Cards surrendered in June represented the team's highest one month total since May 2012. However, the Cards silenced the National League's most proficient offense on Friday and Saturday, beating the Nats 8-1 and 2-1. The Cardinals were after their fifth straight victory Sunday night on ESPN but the Nats scored seven runs on 10 hits and Scherzer struck out 12 St. Louis batters in seven scoreless innings as the Nats won 7-2. The Cards continue their 10-game homestand when the Marlins come to St. Louis for four games. Miami halted a four-game skid by posting a 10-3 victory at Milwaukee on Sunday. The Marlins are just 36-44 (11 games back of the Nats in the NL East) and finish their 10-game road trip this weekend in San Francisco. Miami is the site of this year's All Star game (Tuesday, July 11). The pitching matchup: Jeff Locke (0-4 & 5.52 ERA) will start for Miami and Adam Wainwright (8-5 & 5.17 ERA) for St. Louis. Locke has made six starts in 2017 and has yet to find the win column (Marlins are also 0-6). Locke has made 11 career appearances (10 starts / teams are 5-5) against St. Louis, going 2-4 with a 4.98 ERA. Wainwright has had a roller-coaster season but comes in having allowed just two runs in each of his last two starts. Wainwright is 5-2 with two shutouts and a 2.37 ERA in 11 career games (nine starts / team is 7-2) against the Marlins, including a no-decision at Miami on May 9 in which he allowed four runs over 5 1/3 innings. The pick: Wainwright has been just awful in eight road starts this season, posting an 8.36 ERA. However, he's 5-1 with a 2.64 ERA in eight home outings in 2017! Yes, Locke is win-less in six starts this season but he's pitched better than his record, as he's allowed three ERs or less in five of his six outings. Make the Under a 10* play |
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07-03-17 | Orioles v. Brewers OVER 9.5 | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The 40-41 Orioles begin a four-game, home-and-home IL series with the Brewers, having won five of their past eight. Baltimore beat the Tampa Bay Rays 7-1 on Sunday to salvage the finale of a three-game series. Once upon a time, Baltimore was 22-10 and leading the AL East but prior to winning five of its last eight, Baltimore had lost 28 of its previous 41 games. Currently, the Orioles are 6 1/2 games back of the first-place Red Sox. The 44-40 Brewers remain in first place in the NL Central but their lead was cut to two games over the Cubs after Sunday's 10-3 loss to the Marlins. |
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07-02-17 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with Friday night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. St. Louis ended June 13-16 and the 139 runs they Cardfs have surrendered represented the team's highest one month total since May 2012. However, all the Cards have done so far this weekend is silence the National League's most proficient offense. The Washington Nationals average 5.53 RPG, although following Friday's 8-1 loss, the Nats were again silenced on Saturday by the Cards' Michael Wacha who had a season-high nine strikeouts over six innings of a 2-1 St. Louis win. The Cardinals now seek their fifth straight victory and a three-game sweep of the NL's best road team Sunday night on ESPN . The Nats are 25-17 away from home and despite scoring just two runs in the first two contests of this series, are averaging 5.45 RPG on the road. |
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07-02-17 | Phillies v. Mets -152 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -152 | 5 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets opened a recent 10-game homestand by getting swept in a four-game series by the Dodgers but the team rebounded to win five of its last six games. New York returned home Friday to open a three-game home series against the MLB-worst Phillies and the team has continued to make a run at .500 with wins Friday (2-1) and Saturday (7-6). Saturday's win makes it four in a row and the Mets will try to make it five in a row and eight of nine when they host the Phillies in the finale of their three-game series on Sunday. As noted, the 26-53 Phillies own the worst record in the majors and are losers of 18 of their last 23 contests, overall. |
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07-01-17 | Mariners +109 v. Angels | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the 40-41 Mariners and 42-42 Angels are looking WAY up on the 54-27 Astros in the AL West. However, almost the entire AL is alive in the wild card chase and that goes for the Mariners (1 1/2 games out of the second wild card spot) and the Angels (one game back), for sure. Seattle halted a four-game slide with Friday's 10-0 win in Anaheim, as the Angels allowed a season-high 17 hits and were blanked for the seventh time this year. The pitching matchup: Sam Gaviglio (3-2 & 3.38 ERA) will get the start for Seattle and Ricky Nolasco (3-9 & 4.86 ERA) for Los Angeles. Rookie Gaviglio has allowed two or fewer runs in six of his eight major-league starts in 2017, although he lost his most recent outing to Houston (and Lance McCullers), despite giving up just two runs on six hits in six innings. This marks his first appearance against the Angels. Nolasco pitched 6 1/3 scoreless innings in defeating the 4-0 Dodgers on Monday, ending 10 straight outings without a victory dating back to April 27 against Oakland! Nolasco owns a 5.23 ERA in two no-decisions against Seattle this season (Angels are ) 1-1and is 1-4 with a 4.76 ERA in seven career starts versus the Mariners (teams are 2-5). The pick: The Mariners are 6-2 in Gaviglio's starts here in his rookie season while the veteran Nolsaco has struggled all season long. Yes, he was brilliant against the Dodgers but one can't ignore that he owns a 6.08 and 1.49 WHIP in six home starts this season plus the Angels are 4-12 in all of his 2017 starts, giving him a moneyline mark of minus-$712, which ranks 252nd of 256 starting pitchers this season. |
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07-01-17 | Winnipeg v. Saskatchewan +1 | Top | 43-40 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The CFL's second week concludes Saturday night when the Winnipeg Blue Bombers and Saskatchewan Roughriders meet at Mosaic Stadium in Saskatchewan. The Blue Bombers will be making their 2017 debut in this game, after finishing 11-7 last year and losing in the West semifinals. Matt Nichols returns at QB after throwing for a modest 18 TDs last season. The Blue Bombers averaged 27.6 PPG but allowed 25.2 PPG, so it's no surprise the team was 10-8 ATS. The Roughriders are looking to even their 2017 record at 1-1, after losing 17-16 in Week 1 to the Montreal Alouettes. QB Kevin Glenn completed 70.5 percent of his passes against Montreal for 298 yards (one TD and one INT) but the offense produced just 16 points. The pick: Winnipeg won seven of nine road games last season (also 7-2 ATS) and then lost (but covered) in a 32-31 loss at BC in the playoffs. Does that mean the Blue Bombers are the play? Not so fast. The Roughriders have a game under their belts (it's Winnipeg's first game since November of 2016) and the team's "D" put forth an excellent effort. Montreal was held to just 17 points on 16 FDs at home. In a near pick'em contest, I'll make the home team an 8* play. |
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07-01-17 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals went 3-8 from June 13 through June 24, clinching the team's first sub-.500 month since June of 2016! However, the Cards beat the Pirates 8-4 on June 25 and capped a 5-1 run to end June with last night's 8-1 home win over the Nationals. Yes, St. Louis ended June 13-16 but three of the team's five victories have come over 50-31 Arizona and 47-33 Washington. A big reason for the team's recent surge is a pitching staff which has allowed four or fewer runs in each of the wins and allowed just one run on six hits Friday to the Nationals, who lead the NL in runs scored (3.39 per). The Nats have injury issues at the top of its lineup with Trea Turner (fractured wrist) Aand dam Eaton (knee) on the disabled list. However, the Nats still own an 8 1/2 game lead in the NL East. The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (7-2 & 2.87 ERA) takes the mound for the Nats and Michael Wacha (4-3 & 4.50 ERA) for the Cards. Gonzalez is having a very solid season, as he has allowed three or fewer runs in 14 of his 16 starts, including each of the last seven. Gonzalez faced St. Louis back on April 11 and allowed two runs (one earned) on six hits without walking a batter in seven innings to earn an 8-3 win. Wacha has not had much consistency in 2017 but bounced back from two sub-par outings with an 8-2 win over Cincinnati on Monday, scattering one run on five hits over six innings. However, he did not record an out in the fifth inning in either of his two previous starts, surrendering a total of nine runs (six earned) on 16 hits in eight innings (6.75 ERA). That said, Wacha is 2-2 with a 1.57 ERA in four career starts against Washington Gonzalez owns a splendid 2.87 ERA but yet, Washington is only 9-7 in his 16 starts this season. In keeping with that, although he owns a 2.86 career ERA against the Cards, his teams are just 5-4 in nine starts. Throw in Wacha's 1.57 ERA in four starts against the Nats and it's a 10* on the Under. |
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07-01-17 | Phillies v. Mets -167 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets salvaged a just-completed 10-game road trip with a 5-5 record with five wins in their final six contests. They kept their positive mojo intact last night as well, behind a strong seven-inning effort by Jacob deGrom. DeGrom struck out 12 and teamed with three relievers to hold the top five hitters in Philadelphia's lineup to a combined 0-for-19 in a 2-1 New York win. The Mets can secure their third straight series win with a victory today (or Sunday) vs Philadelphia, which is 3-4 on its current nine-game road trip. Actually, that's pretty good for the Phillies, who own MLB's worst road record (12-32), its worst overall record (26-52) and its second-worst moneyline mark (minus-$1949). The pitching matchup: Jeremy Hellickson (5-5 & 4.40 ERA) takes the mound for Philadelphia and Zack Wheeler (3-5 & 5.29) ERA) for the Mets. Hellickson has rebounded from a rough stretch to post back-to-back solid efforts, allowing a total of two runs on nine hits over 13 innings (1.38 ERA). However, Hellickson remains win-less in his last seven outings (he's 0-4 and the team is 1-6). Hellickson has yet to face the Mets this year but struggled against them in 2016, giving up 21 runs in 24 1/3 innings (7.77 ERA) spread over five starts. That leaves him with an 8.21 ERA against the Mets in seven career starts (he's 2-4 and his teams 3-4). Wheeler was on a roll (had allowed just 11 ERs over seven starts) before he gave up 15 runs in only 3 2/3 innings over two starts on June 13 and 19. He was promptly placed on the disabled list after that but is ready to pitch again, here on July 1. He was 1-0 with a 3.38 ERA in two outings against the Phillies in April (Mets were 1-1) and is 3-1 with a 3.07 ERA in seven career starts versus Philly (Mets are 4-3). The pick: The Phillies won eight of Hellickson's first nine starts in 2017 but that's all in the past now, as they've lost six of his last seven, including the last two when he pitched well (see above). The Mets are far from a juggernaut these days (37-42) but they have won 13 of their last 18 meetings with the Phillies and let's not forget Philly's road record of 12-32 in 2017. Make the Mets an 8* play. |
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07-01-17 | Red Sox v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: There can be no doubt that Boston misses David Ortiz but after a less-than-impressive start to the 2017 season (Red Sox were just 21-21 through May 20), Boston has gone 24-14 and caught the slumping Yankees in the AL East. The Red Sox aren't hitting at the same rate they were with David Ortiz in the middle of the lineup last season but they are developing new strengths. Boston's bullpen ERA of 2.88 is the second-best in all of MLB and that unit gave them five scoreless innings to close out Friday's series opener with Toronto, 7-4 in 11 innings. Closer Craig Kimbrel pitched a perfect 11th inning on Friday to increase his AL-leading save total to 23. Toronto, a team which has played in the last two ALCS matchups, struggled out of the gate by going 7-18 in April but got things turned around although it has never been able to reach .500. The Blue Jays have gotten to within one game of that mark often but keep falling back. Recently, the team has lost six of eight to fall five games under .500 (37-42) and into the AL East basement, 7 1/2 games back of Boston. |
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06-30-17 | Dodgers -200 v. Padres | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 0 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-30-17 | Dodgers v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 47 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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06-30-17 | Montreal +8.5 v. Edmonton | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 82 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Montreal Alouettes eked out a 17-16 win in Week 1 at Saskatchewan, while the Edmonton Eskimos edged the BC Lions 30-27 on the road. The two teams meet Friday at the Commonwealth Stadium in Edmonton. Montreal QB Darian Durant passed for 233 yards, two touchdowns and zero interceptions. Edmonton QB Mike Reilly tortured opposing defenses in 2016 with 5,554 passing yards, as well as finishing second in the league in both TD passes (28) and rushing TDs (9). He passed for 315 yards, two TDs and zero INTs in the three-point win over the Lions. |
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06-30-17 | Yankees v. Astros -166 | Top | 13-4 | Loss | -166 | 24 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees opened the week in a funk, having lost 10 of their previous 12 games. They took two of the first three of a four-game series in Chicago against the White Sox, Mon-Wed, but missed a chance with a 4-3 loss last night to end a string of four straight series losses (Yanks settled for a 2-2 split), New York now travels to Houston to take on the team with MLB's best record (Astros are 54-26) for a three-game weekend series. The Yankees are 42-35, one game back of the Red Sox in the AL East. The Astros had a slight "mini-slump," going 4-8 from June 9 through June 18, but head into this series with eight wins in their last 10 games, extending their led in the AL West to a whopping 13 1/2 games. |
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