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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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08-10-18 | Lions +3 v. Raiders | Top | 10-16 | Loss | -104 | 14 h 27 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX season, I don’t give out season previews/predictions or give an update of what team’s did over the offseason. In Week 1 I simply give out a reason on why I think the back-ups and wannabe’s will win this contest. Reasoning: The Lions will be playing backup Jake Rudock in this one. He completed 37 of 56 passes for 380 yards, three touchdowns and a pick in the pre-season last year. This is a big game for Oakland’s new coach Jon Gruden, who has blown up a lot of his team after last year’s disappointing season. Detroit is 3-0-1 ATS in its last four against the Raiders and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright, straight-up upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. Play on the Lions. |
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08-10-18 | Sun v. Sky +10 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a revenge game for the Sky after Connecticut hammered them 110-72 on their own floor earlier in the season. It’s also the opening game of a home and home set between the clubs. While I’m not predicting an outright victory, I do think that the Sun will “look past” their lowly opponent today and I like the Sky to sneak in through the back door for the comfortable ATS cover once it’s all said and done. The teams: The Sun are primed for a letdown after clinching a playoff spot with a victory over the Wings on Wednesday. It was Connecticut’s fifth straight victory. The Sun are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 14.4 points, while Jasmine Thomas added 4.6 assists. The Sky won’t be playing in the post-season, but they won’t be going down without a fight here after back-to-back losses. Chicago is led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 8.4 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Connecticut is already just 1-4 ATS in its last five after a three-games or more SU unbeaten streak, while Chicago is 3-1 ATS In its last four in trying to revenge an “in season” setback to an opponent. Grab the points, play on the Sky. |
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08-10-18 | Rays v. Blue Jays UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Blake Snell, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada. The pitchers: Snell is so far 12-5 with a 2.27 ERA. He came back from the DL to face the White Sox most recently and would give up one run over four innings. Snell’s “leash” will be taken off here and he actually comes in with an extra days rest. Note that he’s 6-4 with a 3.34 ERA on the road. Respectable for sure. Estrada is so far 5-8 with a 4.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over Seattle over the weekend. Estrada has struggled overall this season, but this latest effort was clearly a big step in the right direction and I think the veteran has the track record and pedigree to now carry that momentum over into a strong finish to the 2018 campaign. The pick: I’m expecting a classic “duel” and on Friday night and as such, I’m jumping all over the “under” in this one. |
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08-10-18 | Rangers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 12-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. Both of these starters tonight have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Mike Minor, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. The pitchers: Minor is so far 8-6 with a 4.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Orioles on Saturday. Minor has been “hit or miss” though this year and note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 6.50 ERA on the road still. Tanaka is so far 9-2 with a 3.76 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out nine over 4.2 innings in a victory over Boston on Sunday. The pick: It’s hard to say anything negative about Tanaka, as overall he’s been very solid this year. Minor though has been a disaster on the road and I think the home side’s big bats are going to take advantage. The price is to steep, but the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. |
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08-10-18 | Red Sox -184 v. Orioles | Top | 19-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy. The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-4 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Yankees on Saturday, giving up three hits and striking out four in the commanding performance. Since coming over to “The Evil Empire,” Eovaldi has fired 15 straight shutout frames. Bundy is so far 7-10 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over six innings in a loss to Texas on Saturday. Over his previous 12.1 frames of work though Bundy was shelled for 15 earned runs. I’m not going to read too much into one decent outing as he’s consistently been inconsistent in this spot all year, coming in with a terrible 4-5, 4.95 ERA home record. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 7-2 in its last nine as a road favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I look for the hard-hitting Red Sox and Eovaldi to come in focused and to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price. |
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08-09-18 | Pirates v. Giants -134 | Top | 10-5 | Loss | -134 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Giants. The visitors hand the ball to Ivan Nova, while the home side goes with Andrew Suarez. The pitchers: Nova is so far 6-6 with a 4.49 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with three walks over four innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Cards on Saturday. Nova comes in struggling across the board, having posted a terrible 5.81 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and pedestrian 17:10 K/BB over his last 31 frames of work. Note that he owns a poor 5.40 ERA on the road as well. Suarez is so far 4-7 with a 4.60 ERA. Suarez comes off an outing to forget against the Diamondbacks on Saturday, giving up eight runs off ten hits over five innings. Suarez has struggled a bit of late as well, but he has to be feeling confident that he can bounce back in friendly confines as he owns a very respectable 3.64 ERA at home so far. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is a solid 19-12 in its last 31 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I think Suarez settles down at home, while Nova once again looks poised for a long-night. Lay the price, play on the Giants. |
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08-09-18 | Lynx -3 v. Aces | Top | 89-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this season already and each has won on the others floor. I think that trend continues here, as I like Minnesota to at the very least keep this one competitive until the final moments. The teams: Minnesota broke a three-game slide with a victory at Chicago on Tuesday and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.8 points per game, with Danielle Robinson adding 3.4 assists. Sylvia Fowles leads the nightly charge on the glass with 11.6 boards. Las Vegas has lost three straight, most recently getting hammered 109-100 at Atlanta on Tuesday. The Aces are led by A’ja Wilson with 20.4 points and 8.3 boards per game, while Kelsey Plum adds 3.9 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after allowing 65 points or less in its last contest, while Las Vegas is just 1-4 ATS in its last five after three or more SU losses. Play on the Lynx |
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08-09-18 | Colts +2 v. Seahawks | Top | 19-17 | Win | 100 | 25 h 43 m | Show |
incorrectly entered play. please disregard. |
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08-09-18 | Panthers v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 28-23 | Loss | -115 | 30 h 50 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Buffalo has three QB’s who are all fighting for the No. 1 QB position in the preseason (AJ McCarron, Nathan Peterman and Josh Allen.) Buffalo improved itself on defense in the offseason as well. Carolina has injuries to its defense though including Julius Peppers and Ross Cockrell. Lay the points. |
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08-09-18 | Steelers +3 v. Eagles | Top | 31-14 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: Philadelphia won the Super Bowl and it’ll be out to prove the pundits wrong that it was a “fluke.” But Pittsburgh has a lot to prove as well this season. This is a big year for both teams, but this is a truly meaningless contest to open the preseason for each. Look for a spirited battle between these two in-state rivals and grab as many points as you can. |
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08-09-18 | Bears v. Bengals -2.5 | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 48 m | Show |
In Week 1 NFLX, I don’t give a seasonal outlook for the teams, or breakdown what they did over the offseason. There are plenty of other better places to go to get caught up on that info if needed. My job is to give you a reason on why the backups and wanna-be’s are going to win this Week 1 NFLX preseason contest. Reasoning: The Bears fought valiantly in the Hall Of Fame Game last Thursday and while they covered for bettors, they came up short in the end. They’ll be feeling pretty good about that effort, but I think the back-to-back road games aren’t doing them any favors this week. The Bengals were a disaster last year and this is a make or break campaign for many involved in the organization. Even though it’s the back-ups and wannabe’s for the most part playing tonight, clearly the team will be out to leave a good impression in front of the home town crowd to kick off the 2018/19 season. Note as well that Chicago is 5-11 ATS in its last 16 road games. Lay the points. |
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08-09-18 | Braves v. Nationals -123 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 15 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. However, for a number of different reasons I think this one does indeed favor the home side. The Braves send Anibal Sanchez to the hill tonight, while the Nationals go with Gio Gonzalez. The pitchers: Sanchez is so far 6-3 with a 2.89 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a victory over the Mets on Friday. Sanchez though would only throw 59 of his 100 pitches for strikes and he only generated eight swinging strikes against the Mets’ pathetic hitting line-up. Sanchez has been better than advertised this season, but I think he’s going to have his hands full here. Gonzalez is so far 6-8 with a 4.04 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs over 3.2 innings in a blowout loss to the Reds on Saturday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Gonzalez over the last two seasons and he has to be feeling confident here that he can bounce back as he owns a solid 3.15 ERA at home so far this season. The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but note that the Nationals are 7-2 in their last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Gonzalez to bounce back at home and I think Sanchez is poised for regression. Lay the price. |
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08-08-18 | Orioles v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some starting pitchers who have seen better days. This is one of those match-ups. For a number of different reasons, I think this one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Ryne Stanek. The pitchers: Cashner is so far 3-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up ten runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out one over 1.2 innings in a loss to Texas on Thursday. Cashner had looked decent over the previous month before this dud, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-5 with a 5.40 ERA on the road this season. Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.27 ERA. Stanek has looked decent in his limited time as a starters, but clearly the book is still out on the the 27 year old, as the sample size is simply too small. He posted a 5.85 ERA last year, so regression does seem imminent in my opinion after his recent run of competency. The pick: I have zero confidence in either of these starters and I expect each to get chased early. So with that in mind, the prudent call is definitely the “over” in this particular matchup in my professional opinion. |
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08-08-18 | Braves +109 v. Nationals | Top | 8-3 | Win | 109 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I think that Mike Foltynewicz and the visitors are worth the price of admission tonight. The home side goes with Tommy Milone on the hill. The pitchers: Foltynewicz is so far 8-7 with a 3.04 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs and a walk while striking out six in a victory over the Mets on Thursday. Foltynewicz was scuffling before this, but he looked fantastic in his latest start and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. Note that he still owns an impressive 143:50 K/BB over 124.1 frames of work. Milone is so far 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA. He most recently gave up one run while striking out nine over seven innings in a victory over the light-hitting Mets on Monday. Over 12 innings this year Milone has given up just four runs, but clearly he faces a stiff test tonight against the Braves’ hard-hitting sluggers. The pick: I like Foltynewicz to build off his latest effort, while everything points to a predictable letdown for Milone against this difficult line-up. Play on the Braves. |
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08-08-18 | Sparks v. Liberty +8.5 | Top | 82-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played twice this year and each has won its home floor. New York took the first game 81-75, before LA won 80-54 in the the most recent. I think this trend carries over in this one as I like the Liberty to battle tough and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The teams: After back-to-back wins and with a game tomorrow night in Atlanta, this one sets up as a classic “look-ahead” spot for the visitors in my professional opinion. LA is led by Candace Parker with 18.1 points and 7.9 boards per game, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.4 assists. No need to question New York’s focus today after seven straight losses, most recently a 96-80 setback to Seattle. The Liberty don’t play again until Sunday either, so I’m fully expecting a concerted effort here from the home side in this one. New York is led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after six or more SU losses. Desperation leads the Liberty to a solid cover on Wednesday. |
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08-08-18 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium tonight with a couple of red hot hurlers squaring off. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Patrick Corbin. The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-8 with a 3.80 ERA. He most recently went 6.1 scoreless frames against the Fish on Friday, giving up two hits and one walk while striking out seven in the victory. Over his last 24.1 frames he’s given up just two runs. He also has 129 strikeouts over 113.2 innings of work this year. Corbin is so far 8-4 with a 3.31 ERA. He most recently struck out eight and walked zero in a victory over San Francisco on Friday. Cobrin now has 12 quality efforts on the season and he’s holding the opposition to a .216 batting average. He also has an impressive 174 strikeouts and a 1.06 WHIP. The pick: I’m expecting these starters to throw deep into this game and as a result, the “under” is the correct call in my professional opinion. |
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08-08-18 | Mariners -145 v. Rangers | Top | 7-11 | Loss | -145 | 6 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visitors. The Mariners go with Marco Gonzalez on the hill, while the Rangers go with Yovani Gallardo. The pitchers: Gonzales is so far 12-6 with a 3.46 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a loss to Toronto on Friday. The setback snapped a five-game win streak in which he posted a 2.18 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and 8.3 K/9. Note that he’s still 7-4 with a 3.80 ERA on the road. Gallardo is so far 6-1 with a 6.51 ERA. He earned a win last time out against the Orioles on Thursday despite allowing five earned runs off nine hits over 5.1 frames of work. The beleaguered right-hander has now given up multiple walks in six of his eight starts this year and to go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a deplorable 1.62 WHIP. The pick: Gallardo’s win/loss record is not indicative of how he’s thrown this year as he’s been the beneficiary of some weak match-ups and a lot of support. I expect those two things to come to an end here against the Mariners’ big bats and the consistent play of Gonzalez. Lay the price, play on Seattle. |
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08-07-18 | Dodgers v. A's +109 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. That said however, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The Dodgers go with Rich Hill, while the A’s go with Sean Manea. The pitchers: Hill is so far 4-4 with a 3.63 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits and a walk while striking out four over six innings in a victory over Milwaukee on Wednesday. Hill has been pretty good since returning from the DL in mid-June, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 4.22 ERA in all “night” games. Manaea is so far 10-7 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits with two walks over six innings while striking out five in a win over Toronto on Wednesday. It was his third quality effort out of his last four tries and he now has a 21:6 K/BB over his last 34.2 frames of work. The pick: Hill has looked better of late, but I think he’ll struggle in this difficult venue. Manaea is putting together his best season of his career and I look for him to carry that momentum over in friendly confines. Play on Oakland. |
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08-07-18 | Phillies v. Diamondbacks -156 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -156 | 25 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. That said however, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors the home side. The Phillies go with Nick Pivetta, while the Diamondbacks go with Zack Greinke. The pitchers: Pivetta is so far 6-9 with a 4.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with zero walks over six innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Marlins on Thursday. Pivetta though has been terrible on the road this season by going 2-4 with a 5.63 ERA. Greinke is so far 12-6 with a 2.96 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with one walk while striking out five over six innings in an unfortunate loss to San Francisco on Thursday. Greinke though is putting together a great overall 2018 campaign, coming into this one sporting the sharp ERA, a strong 1.04 WHIP and 148 strikeouts to this point. The pick: And note that Greinke has been tough on the opposition at home this year with the 5-2, 2.44 ERA record to this point. No upset here as I like Greinke to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price. |
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08-07-18 | Reds v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Two struggling starters go head-to-head in this one and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Sal Romano, while the home side goes with Jason Vargas. The pitchers: Romano is so far 6-9 with a 5.12 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out three over 5.1 innings in a loss to Detroit on Wednesday. Romano has been terrible overall this season, especially on the road where he’s just 1-5 with a 5.62 ERA. Vargas is so far 2-7 with an 8.23 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits and three walks in a loss to the Braves on Thursday. Vargas comes in with zero momentum, having now lost four straight. The pick: Vargas has struggled at home as well with a 1-3, 5.49 ERA record to this point. The total in this contest is high for a National League affair, but for good reason. I’m expecting these hurlers to get chased early and I look for this total to fly “over” the number sooner, rather than later. Play the “over.” |
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08-07-18 | Cardinals -156 v. Marlins | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with Miles Mikolas, while the home side goes with Pablo Lopez. The pitchers: Mikolas is so far 11-3 with a 2.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Thursday. Over five July starts Mikolas would give up 11 runs over 27 innings while also posting 19 strikeouts. To go along with his strong ERA, he also owns a solid 1.08 WHIP and 97:25 K/BB over 137.1 frames of work. Lopez is so far 2-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Lopez has looked decent over his six career big league starts, but not great. Note that he’s just 1-2 with a 5.60 ERA at home as well. The pick: The sample size is simply too small for Lopez to get an entirely accurate read, but in the early going the rookie has been terrible in front of the home town crowd. And that doesn’t bode well facing this opportunistic Cards’ line-up. There’s no reason not to think that Mikolas can’t carry over his focus to this one. Lay the price, play on St. Louis. |
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08-06-18 | Tigers +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -155 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I like Matt Boyd and the Tigers to battle tough and to keep this one close enough to at the very least, escape with a cover with the extra 1.5 runs. The home side sends Nick Tropeano to the hill. The pitchers: Boyd is so far 6-9 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless while striking out seven in a victory over Cincinnati on Tuesday. Over his last 19 frames of work he’s allowed just three earned runs. Tropeano is so far 4-6 with a 4.94 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off seven hits with four walks over 5.2 innings in a loss to the light-hitting Rays on Wednesday. Tropeano labored from the start by throwing only 56 of his 95 pitches for strikes. The pick: Tropeano has been a disaster at home as well with the 1-3, 5.46 ERA record this season. I think Boyd carries over his considerable momentum here, while recent form displayed by Tropeano points to another long night for the right-hander. Play on the Tigers on the “run line.” |
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08-06-18 | Mariners -114 v. Rangers | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 24 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think that Wade LeBlanc and the visiting side are worth the price of admission vs. Rangers’ starter Bartolo Colon. The pitchers: LeBlanc is so far 6-2 with a 3.95 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Astros on Wednesday, allowing seven runs over 4.1 innings. He’d posted two straight quality efforts before this “dud,” so I’m not going to over-react to one crummy outing. Note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.02 ERA in all “night” games. Colon is so far 5-10 with a 5.18 ERA. he most recently was shelled for five runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Colon is continuing to regress as the season wares on, having allowed at least five runs in three straight trips to the mound. Note that he’s just 2-4 with a 5.72 ERA at home as well. The pick: LeBlanc was cruising along with some elite numbers until his most recent outing, but Colon has been struggling for quite a while. LeBlanc gets back on track here in this favorable matchup, while everything points to another long night for Colon. Lay the price, play on the Mariners. |
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08-06-18 | Storm v. Liberty +9 | Top | 96-80 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for New York after it fell 77-62 to the Storm at home earlier in the season. Seattle though comes in complacent here in my opinion after three straight victories, while also getting caught “looking ahead” to its game at Indiana tomorrow afternoon. New York though will be taking nothing for granted after six straight losses. The teams: Seattle is led by Breanna Stewart with 22.5 points and 8.1 boards per game, while Sue Bird adds 7.4 assists. The Liberty are led by Tina Charles with 19.6 points and 7.2 boards per game, while Brittany Boyd adds 5.3 assists. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is 7-3 in its last ten after four or more consecutive SU losses. No need to over think this one, as I think a revenge minded and determined Liberty team catches the Storm “off guard.” Play on New York. |
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08-05-18 | Dream +5 v. Lynx | Top | 86-66 | Win | 100 | 24 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: They Lynx come in off an 85-75 setback at Seattle on Friday night and I think they’re primed for another letdown here as well. These teams have played each other twice this year and so far they’re 1-1. The teams: Atlanta has won nine of its last ten, most recently an 89-74 victory at home over Chicago on Friday. The Dream are led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 points, while Renee Montgomery averages 3.4 assists. Jessica Breland leads the nightly charge on the glass with 8.1 boards per game. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 17.4 PPG, while Danielle Robison directs the point with 3.2 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the way on the glass with 11.7 boards per game. The pick: The Lynx return home after losing two straight on the road. Minnesota is struggling to find offensive consistency right now and I think the Dream can smell the blood in the water. I look for Atlanta to leave town with a comfortable ATS cover tonight. |
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08-05-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -178 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -178 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
The pitchers: Holland is so far 5-8 with a 3.90 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off four hits with two walks while striking out five over five innings against San Diego on Monday. Holland has been better than advertised so far for San Francisco this season, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 3-5 with a 4.01 ERA on the road. Ray is so far 3-2 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off two hits and four walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in no-decision to the Rangers on Monday. Ray’s ERA is nothing to write home about, but he sports a respectable 1.29 WHIP and 87 strikeouts over 66 frames of work to this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 3-7 in its last ten day games as a road underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I like Ray to get back on track in front of the home town crowd and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to provide the support. Lay the price. |
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08-05-18 | Reds v. Nationals -160 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This isn’t the most interesting match-up on the mound, but all things considered I believe it’s one that favors the home side. The Reds send the erratic Luis Castillo to the hill, while the Nationals go with improving Tanner Roark. The pitchers: Castillo is so far 6-8 with a 4.98 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings in a win over the Phillies on Sunday, striking out nine and walking just one. It was his best start of the year, but I think he’ll make a predictable fall back down into mediocrity again tonight. Note that he’s just 2-5 with a 6.44 ERA on the road as well still. Roark is so far 5-12 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings, while striking out seven and walking none in a win over the Mets on Tuesday. Over his last 15 innings of work Roark has given up just one earned run. The pick: Roark has struggled overall this year, but his recent form suggests that the hard-throwing right-hander is finally trending in the correct direction. Castillo had an amazing performance in his latest start, but he’s been consistently inconsistent all season, especially on the road. That makes Roark well worth the price of admission in this match-up in my opinion. Play on the Nationals. |
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08-04-18 | Tigers v. A's OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -111 | 27 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and depending on how you want to look at it, this is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Edwin Jackson. The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 4-3 with a 4.44 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off six hits with one walk while striking out two over three innings in a loss to the Tribe on Sunday. He’s now lost three straight and posted a 1.21 WHIP to go along with just 67 strikeouts over 71 frames of work this season. Note that he owns a poor 5.25 ERA on the road as well. Jackson is so far 2-2 with a 3.32 ERA. He most recently went 5.2 scoreless against the Jays in a victory. In his previous start though he was blasted for five runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings. Jackson has been decent overall this year, but regression seems imminent in my opinion after his unreal start. The pick: For this pick I’m focusing solely on the starting pitchers. Simply put, neither fills me with a lot of confidence. In fact, I’m expecting each to get the hook early and as such, everything points to the “over” as the correct call in this particular match-up. |
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08-04-18 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Burch Smith, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Smith is so far 1-2 with a 6.00 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off five hits and three walks over four innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Smith has been all over the map as far as his game-to-game consistency is concerned. To go along with his poor ERA, note that he also owns a shoddy 1.50 WHIP. Berrios is so far 10-8 with a 3.56 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off nine hits while striking out six over 4.2 innings in a loss to Boston on Sunday. Over 139 frames of work this year Berrios owns the 3.56 ERA, a 1.05 WHIP, while also amassing 142 strikeouts. The pick: Berrios has been “lights out” at home as well with a 7-2, 2.99 ERA record. Smith is in over his head here. Berrios has been far from perfect this season, but he’ll be feeling confident in friendly confines and that makes this a price that I can live with paying. Lay the price, play on the Twins. |
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08-04-18 | Cardinals v. Pirates -114 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -114 | 26 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, but this particular one is even more lop-sided than what the oddsmakers want us to believe in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Austin Gomber, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova. The pitchers: Gomber is so far 1-0 with a 3.22 ERA. He made his first major-league start in Cincinnati on July 24th and gave up two earned runs over 6.1 innings. Gomber’s been decent, not spectacular and clearly he draws a tough match-up here. Nova is so far 6-6 with a 4.33 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Previous to that “dud” though Nova had looked pretty good by giving up just six runs over 17 frames of work. The 31 year old comes into this one sporting a 1.29 WHIP and 82:22 K/BB over 114.1 frames. The pick: Clearly the sky is the limit for Gomber, but I think the rookie will come up short here on the road. Nova for the most part has been solid this year and I think he’ll get the better of his younger counterpart. Lay the price, play on the Pirates. |
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08-04-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -161 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 26 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think that Zach Eflin and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Jose Urena on the mound tonight. The pitchers: Urena is so far 3-10 with a 4.40 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Nationals on Sunday. Urena has been decent overall this season, but note that he’s still a terrible 2-3 with a 5.01 ERA on the road this season. Eflin is so far 7-3 with a 3.64 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs while striking out four over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Reds on Sunday. He’s looked shaky over his last two starts, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react at this point. Note that Eflin is 4-1 with a 3.18 ERA at home this year. The pick: Eflin is also a solid 5-2 with a 3.56 ERA in all “night” games. Urena has likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s in over his head in this difficult venue in my opinion. I’m banking on Eflin doing just enough to get back into the win column tonight. Lay the price. |
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08-04-18 | Yankees v. Red Sox -141 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: This important American League series features some interesting match-ups on the mound and this is certainly one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I absolutely believe that Nate Eovaldi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Chance Adams, who makes his big league debut here. The pitchers: Adams went five scoreless while striking out six for Triple-A Scranton on Wednesday. Previous to that though he’d given up four runs off seven hits over 3.2 innings. He’s also already given up four free passes over just 8.2 innings of work. Eovaldi is so far 4-4 with a 3.80 ERA. He went seven shutout innings while allowing four hits and striking out five in a win over Minnesota in his debut for his new team on Sunday. Over his last 13 innings of work he’s given up just one run while striking out 13. The pick: Over 64 frames of work Eovaldi has 58 strikeouts to go along with a sharp 0.94 WHIP this season. Clearly the sky is the limit for Adams, but I think he’s in well over his head in this one. Lay the price, play on the Red Sox. |
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08-03-18 | Blue Jays v. Mariners -162 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -162 | 29 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that Marco Gonzalez and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Ryan Borucki on the mound. The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.83 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over six innings with six hits and a walk while strking out five in a no-decision to the White Sox on Sunday. The rookie has been decent in his limited time, but clearly he finds himself in a difficult match-up and venue here. Gonzalez is so far 12-5 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits over six frames while striking out seven in a win over the Angels on Sunday. He’s now 5-0 over his last five games and he’s given up just 25 walks over 125.2 frames of work overall this season. The pick: Note as well that Gonzalez is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA at home this year. And take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is 7-2 in its last nine as a home fav in the -150 to -225 range, while the Blue Jays are just 2-6 in their last eight as a road underdog in the +150 to +200 range. No upset here as Gonzalez continues his solid season with another strong performance in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price. |
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08-03-18 | Rockies v. Brewers -129 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors go with German Marquez, while the Brewers go with Junior Guerra. The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-8 with a 4.82 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits and a walk in a win over the A’s on Sunday. Marquez has been “hit or miss” this year though and note that he owns a pedestrian 4.86 ERA in all “night” games. Guerra is so far 6-7 with a 3.43 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants on Sunday. Previous to that though he’d given up three earned runs or fewer in six of seven outings. Note as well that he’s 3-3 with a very respectable 2.45 ERA at home this season. The pick: Guerra comes in focused and hungry off his latest poor effort. And thankfully for Guerra he’s throwing in front of the home town crowd tonight, a place which he’s been downright dominant in. No reason not to think that that momentum/trend doesn’t get carried over here as well. The price is right, play on the Brewers. |
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08-03-18 | Royals v. Twins -181 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 27 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I absolutely believe that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this match-up. The visitors send Heath Fillmyer to the hill. The pitchers: Fillmyer is so far 0-1 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Yankees on Saturday. Over his first 27.1 big league innings the rookie sports a poor 15:12 K/BB. Odorizzi is so far 4-7 with a 4.58 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing, giving up five runs off nine hits while striking out five over five innings in a loss to Boston on Saturday. Previous to that he gave up two runs over seven innings and struck out eight against the Royals. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -175 to -250 range, while KC is just 2-5 in its last seven as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range. I like Odorizzi to come in focused and to take advantage of this favorable match-up. Lay the price. |
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08-02-18 | Lynx v. Sparks -3 | Top | 57-79 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Sparks are 2-1. LA won 77-76 in Minnesota in the first one, 77-69 at home in the second one, before then falling 83-72 in Minnesota in the latest on July 5th. Minnesota has won three straight and with a tough one on the road in Seattle tomorrow night, the Lynx get caught looking ahead here in my opinion. The Sparks on the other hand have lost two of three and have had a night off to absorb an 81-71 loss to the Dream on Tuesday. The teams: The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.2 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen directs the point with 3.3 assists per night. Sylvia Fowles leads the charge on the glass with 11.7 board a game. The Sparks are led by Candace Parker with 18 PPG, while Chelsea Gray adds 5.3 assists per night. Parker also leads the rebound department with 7.5 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is already just 5-8 ATS this year after allowing 75 points or more in its previous contest, while LA is already 6-1 ATS this season off an upset loss as a favorite. Play on the Sparks. |
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08-02-18 | Brewers +183 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-21 | Loss | -100 | 24 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. Clayton Kershaw has looked human this year and I think that leaves the door open for the steady Jhoulys Chacin and the hungry Brewers to steal this one on Thursday night. The pitchers: Chacin is so far 10-3 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and a walk while striking out six over seven innings in a victory over San Francisco on Saturday. Over 127.2 innings Chacin sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP and note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.45 ERA on the road this season. Kershaw is so far 4-5 with a 2.52 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits over 7.2 innings in a win over Atlanta on Friday. It’s hard to say anything negative about Kershaw, who has been solid of late, I simply feel that Chacin, who comes in on top form, is going to be able to match him inning for inning on Thursday. The pick: The Brewers are under-rated here in my opinion, they come in 63-47 overall, including 30-26 on the road. LA is 59-49 overall, but a pedestrian 28-26 at home. Value swings to the underdog in this one, play on Milwaukee. |
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08-02-18 | Bears v. Ravens | Top | 16-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This game is being played on Thursday, August 2nd at 8:00 PM EST at the Tom Benson Hall of Fame Stadium. The Bears have a new head coach in Matt Nagy, who comes over as the former offensive coordinator of the KC Chiefs. Baltimore hasn’t made the playoffs in three years and if Joe Flacco can’t step up, surely there’s going to be some major changes upcoming for the Ravens. The teams: We’re going to see a battle for backup QB in Chicago during the preseason between Chase Daniel and Tyler Bray, with Mitchell Trubisky having already secured the starters position. There’s talent at receiver as well in Taylor Gabriel and Anthony Miller. Baltimore used its No. 1 draft pick to grab QB Lamar Jackson. The Ravens also have Robert Griffin III as another backup. The Ravens also have a lot of new faces in the receiver position, including Michael Crabtree and Willie Sneed. The defense should be a strength of the team, but don’t expect to see any starters playing on Opening night. The pick: For arguments sakes, let’s call every position on every line on both sides of the ball a “wash” in this game, except at QB, which we’ll look at here subjectively. If this was Trubisky going against Flacco, we’d look at this one differently, but the experience that the Ravens’ backup QB’s bring to the table will turn out to be the difference in my opinion. Daniel and Bray lack experience, while RG III and the gifted Lamar Jackson clearly have the advantage in that department. And for me, that’s the difference make in this matchup. Play on Baltimore. |
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08-02-18 | Yankees +105 v. Red Sox | Top | 7-15 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a big American League East series going in Boston Thursday night and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the visiting side. The Yanks hand the ball to CC Sabathia, while the Red Sox go with Brian Johnson. The pitchers: Sabathia is so far 6-4 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with eight strikeouts over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Saturday. Sabathia had been off for two weeks, so he had to work though a little rust. The veteran though looked sharp overall and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 5-3, 3.66 ERA night record. Johnson is so far 1-3 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently struck out five over 5.2 scoreless in a no-decision to Minnesota on Thursday. Johnson remains in the rotation with the injury to ace Chris Sale, but note that he’s still 0-1 with a 4.79 ERA at home this year. The pick: Slugger Aaron Judge is out for the Yankees, but New York features a ton of depth at the plate, so expect zero regression in that department. Note as well that the Yanks are 24-6 (+14.6 units) this season against southpaws. I like Sabathia to get the better of Johnson and for the “Evil Empire” to strike first. |
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08-02-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -170 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami was in Atlanta on Wednesday night, while Philadelphia had the night off. This series features a number of rather poor match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The visitors go with Trevor Richards, while the Phillies go with Nick Pivetta. The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-5 with a 4.06 ERA. He most recently allowed three hits with two walks while striking out eight over six scoreless against the Nationals on Saturday. The rookie has looked a lot better of late after a shaky start to his MLB career, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.11 ERA on the road this year. Pivetta is so far 6-9 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off six hits with 12 strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Reds on Friday. Over 107.2 innings Pivetta owns the pedestrian ERA, but his 1.33 WHIP and 134 strikeouts remain respectable. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is 0-11 (-11 units) this year on all “Thursday” games and just 35-44 against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 45-37 (+7.3 units) against right-handed starters. No upsets here. Lay the price, play on the Phillies. OVERNIGHT PITCHING CHANGE FOR MIAMI: Note that the Fish have opted to go with Pablo Lopez instead (2-2, 5.34) who was most recently crushed for four runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to Washington on Friday. Simply put, his numbers aren’t spectacular (1.29 WHIP and 23 strikeouts over 28.2 innings.) This is a difficult spot start and I think Lopez will predictably struggle. This play is still VALID, lay the price. |
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08-01-18 | Mercury +1.5 v. Aces | Top | 104-93 | Win | 100 | 25 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played each other three times this year and so far Phoenix has gone 2-1, winning 72-66 in the first first one, 92-80 on the road in the second one, before then falling 85-82 in the most recent at home back on the 19th. The teams: The Mercury are the deeper and more experienced team led by Diana Taurasi with 20.3 PPG, She also leads the team in assists with 4.8 per night. It’s Brittney Griner though who controls the glass with 7.2 per game. The Aces are led by 20 points a night by A’ ja Wilson, while Kelsey Plum directs the show with 3.4 assists per game. Wilson also leads the charge on the glass with 8.6 per night. The pick: The Aces come in off back-to-back wins and have a date in the Nation’s capital on Friday night. I think the home side comes in complacent gets caught “looking ahead” here. Phoenix on the other hand comes in desperate this week. After its game against Seattle at home on Tuesday night, I think the Phoenix will catch Las Vegas off guard on Wednesday. Grab the points, play on the Mercury. |
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08-01-18 | Astros -130 v. Mariners | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the visitors. The defending champs send Dallas Keuchel to the hill, while the home side goes with Wade LeBlanc. The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 8-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings while striking out five in a loss to the Rangers on Friday. Note that it was just his first loss since early June. Also note that Keuchel has been sharp on the road this season with a 5-4, 3.04 ERA record. LeBlanc is so far 6-1 with a 3.51 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. LeBlanc has looked good as well this year, but I simply believe that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. The pick: Note as well that Keuchel is 3-1 with a 3.86 ERA in all “day” games this season, while LeBlanc has a 6.06 ERA in all day contests. I’m banking on Keuchel continuing his strong play on the road and in all daytime contests and I look for LeBlanc to finally take a step back in this difficult match-up. Lay the price, play on Houston. |
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08-01-18 | Blue Jays v. A's -135 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 19 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups on the mound and this particular one is definitely one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The Jays send Marcus Stroman to the hill, while the A’s hand the ball to Sean Manaea. The pitchers: Stroman is so far 4-7 with a 5.20 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits and a walk over 6.2 innings while striking out three in a win over the White Sox on Friday. Since coming off the DL Stroman has posted a 2.98 ERA, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA in all “day” games. Manaea is so far 9-7 with a 3.46 ERA. He most recently allowed three earned runs off nine hits over five innings while striking out five over five innings in a loss to Colorado on Friday. Manaea has now allowed three earned runs or less in ten consecutive starts. The pick: Manaea has been at his best at home as well this year with a 5-0, 2.95 ERA record and I think he carries that momentum over here. Stroman has looked better of late, but I think he finally takes a step back in this difficult venue. The price is right, play on Oakland. |
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08-01-18 | Indians -175 v. Twins | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of competitive match ups on the mound, however I don’t think that this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I believe this one favors the visitors. The Indians go with Carlos Carrasco on the hill, while the Twins go with Adalberto Mejia The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 12-5 with a 3.89 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs (just one earned) off seven hits and two walks with eight strikeouts over 6.1 innings in a no-decision to Detroit on Friday. Carrasco was on top form, generating 19 swinging strikes out of 97 pitches and since the All Star break he’s posted a 16:3 K/BB over 13 innings. Mejia is so far 1-0 with a 3.65 ERA. Mejia is back in the rotation out of necessity and so far he’s posted a 3.68 ERA to go along with a poor 1.67 WHIP over 12.1 innings this year. The pick: Carrasco comes in rested and focused and I don’t think there’s any reason not to think that he won’t carry over his recent momentum here. Mejia has been decent in his limited time this season, but there’s no question he draws a tough matchup this afternoon. I think Carrasco will have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his counterpart and that makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Indians. |
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07-31-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -173 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of lop-sided match ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with the venerable Bartolo Colon, while the home side goes with Zach Godley. The pitchers: Colon is so far 5-9 with a 5.02 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits with two walks over seven innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Colon has lost all four July starts and he comes in sporting the sub-par 3-5, 4.78 ERA on the road. Godley is so far 11-6 with a 4.73 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits with six strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Cubs on Thursday. Overall his numbers are poor, but note that he’s been much better of late, allowing exactly one walk in four of his last five starts, while not giving up a home run in any of those outings and posting a very respectable 3.42 ERA over that span. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is already a poor 31-43 (-4.7 units) against right-handed starters this season, while Arizona is 37-32 (+2.3 units) against right-handed pitching. No upsets here as I expect Godley to easily get the better of Colon. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks. |
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07-31-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -109 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -109 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of competitive match ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Cardinals. The visitors go with Jon Gray on the hill, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. The pitchers: Gray is so far 8-7 with a 5.16 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off one hit while striking out six over seven innings in a no-decision to Houston on Wednesday. Gray’s looked sharp in consecutive starts since being called back up from a stint in the minors, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 5.89 ERA on the road this year. Flaherty is so far 4-5 with a 3.28 ERA. Most recently he gave up three runs off four hits and two walks while striking out eight over five innings in a loss to Cincinnati on Wednesday. Flaherty hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been at his best at home with a 3.08 ERA so far this season. The pick: I think Gray comes back down to Earth with another poor effort on the road, while there’s no reason not to think that Flaherty won’t be able to carry over his recent momentum, especially in friendly confines. The price is right, play on St. Louis. |
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07-31-18 | Indians -144 v. Twins | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors go with Trevor Bauer, while the home side goes with Kyle Gibson. The pitchers: Bauer is so far 9-6 with a 2.32 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Pirates on Wednesday, giving up two hits and striking out ten in the commanding performance. Bauer hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been very consistent and note that he has to be feeling confident in this spot as he’s 7-3 with a 2.31 ERA in all “night” games. Gibson is so far 5-7 with a 3.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off four hits over eight innings in a victory over the Red Sox on Thursday. It’s hard to say too many negative things about Gibson, who is easily putting together the best campaign of his career to this point, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time. The pick: As note that Cleveland is 36-18 (+4.2 units) this year against teams with losing records, while Minnesota is a terrible 24-33 (-4.1 units) this season against clubs with winning records. I think Bauer matches Gibson inning for inning and I look for the Indians’ hard-hitting line-up to do the rest. Lay the price, play on the Tribe. |
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07-31-18 | Angels -122 v. Rays | Top | 6-10 | Loss | -122 | 21 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Tyler Skaggs and the hard-hitting Angels are the correct call in this particular matchup. The home side goes with Ryne Stanek. The pitchers: Skaggs is so far 8-6 with a 2.62 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs (just one earned) off four hits while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the White Sox on Wednesday. The southpaw has now given up one or fewer earned runs in seven of his last eight trips to the hill while posting a 51:12 K/BB over 50 innings during that stretch. Stanek is so far 1-3 with a 2.43 ERA. He’s expected to throw no more than two frames, before making way for either Austin Pruitt or Ryan Yarbrough out of the bullpen. In his last start Stanek was lit up for three runs over two innings by the Orioles. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 17-8 (+5.8 units) in its last 25 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Tampa is just 57-63 (-8.5 units) in its last 120 at home when the money line is set in the +125 to -125 range. I’m banking on Skaggs coming in focused and I look for the Angels to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Great value, play on the Angels. |
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07-31-18 | Giants -111 v. Padres | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match ups on the mound and this isn’t really one of them. This is a bigger mismatch than what the bookmakers would like us to think though in my opinion as the visitors hand the ball to the steady Derek Rodriguez, while the home side goes with the erratic Clayton Richard. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 5-1 with a 2.75 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with three strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Thursday. To go along with his solid ERA, Rodriguez also owns an impressive 47:14 K/BB. Richard is so far 7-10 with a 5.05 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off five hits with two walks to go along with a lone strikeout over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Wednesday. Richard has now given up at least five runs in three of his last five starts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is 22-16 (+10.6 units) this year in all “day” games, while San Diego is just 13-19 (-3.2 units) in all “day” games. Great value on the better pitcher, play on the Giants. |
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07-30-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -160 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -160 | 23 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brewers fell 8-5 in San Francisco last night, while the Dodgers lost 4-1 in Atlanta yesterday afternoon. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors LA. The visitors go with Freddy Peralta, while the home side goes with Kenta Maeda. The pitchers: Peralta is so far 4-2 with a 3.74 ERA. He most recently allowed seven runs off four hits over six innings in a loss to Washington on Wednesday. Over 43.1 innings so far he’s allowed 22 walks. Maeda is so far 7-5 with a 3.27 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off six hits over seven innings, striking out seven and walking no one in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that it was the first time since mid May that he’s allowed more than three runs. Note as well that he owns a solid 2.74 ERA at home. The pick: The Brewers have been strong on the road, but their rookie is in over his head here in my opinion. I look for Maeda to continue his strong play at home and to find a way to deliver the goods at the end of the night. Lay the price. |
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07-30-18 | Rangers v. Diamondbacks -205 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -205 | 22 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: While Robbie Ray is struggling through a difficult overall season, I still think he’ll have more than enough in the tank to get the better of his inconsistent inter-league counterpart. The Rangers will hand the ball to the erratic Martin Perez in this one. The pitchers: Perez is so far 2-4 with a 7.08 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off seven hits with three walks over six innings in a no-decision to Oakland on Wednesday. Perez has struggled across the board this year, going only 1-1 with a 6.64 ERA on the road. Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.90 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits with a walk and six strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision against the Cubs on Wednesday. After a disappointing first half, it was easily Ray’s best start of 2018. The pick: And there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing southpaw won’t be able to carry that momentum over here in this favorable matchup. Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is just 14-19 against lefties this year, while Arizona is 21-16 (+3.9 units) against southpaws. The massive talent gap on the mound makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on the Diamondbacks. |
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07-30-18 | Rockies v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis fell 5-2 at home to the Cubs on Sunday Night baseball after taking the first two games of that series, while Colorado came out on top of Oakland 3-2 last night. For a number of different reasons, I think tonight’s contest favors the Cards though. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side goes with Carlos Martinez. The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-3 with a 3.57 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off three hits with three walks while striking out four over 7.1 innings in a no-decision to the Astros on Tuesday. Anderson has been sharp in July (1.32 ERA), but note that the Rockies are just 2-7 in their last nine after giving up two or less runs in their previous outing. Martinez is so far 6-6 with a 3.39 ERA. Martinez missed one start after a short stint on the DL, but he’s been cleared to go here. Note that he owns a sharp 2.68 ERA at home. The pick: Also note that St. Louis is 12-7 (+4.6 units) this season at home when the money line in the contest falls in the -125 to +125 range. For arguments sakes, let’s call these starters a “wash.” I think the Cards have the advantage at home though and I look for them to make the most of it. Lay the very reasonable price. |
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07-29-18 | Cubs v. Cardinals OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sunday Night ESPN game features an interesting matchup on the mound, as the visitors send Kyle Hendricks to the hill, while the home side goes with John Gant. The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 6-9 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off seven hits over five innings in a loss to Arizona on Tuesday. Over six of his last seven starts Hendricks has now failed to complete six innings. Note that he’s an uninspiring 3-3 with a 4.70 ERA on the road as well. Gant is so far 3-3 with a 3.44 ERA. He was most recently used in relief against the Reds on Wednesday, giving up two earned runs and two walks over one frame of work. The pick: These teams have woken up at the plate as the weather has warmed up, as Chicago has seen the total go “over” in 14 of 23 in July so far, while St. Louis has seen the total go “over” in five of its last seven against the division. While these teams played to the “under” on Saturday afternoon, everything points to a higher-scoring “slug-fest” in this one. Play the “over.” |
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07-29-18 | Diamondbacks -107 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
The pitchers: Buchholz is so far 3-1 with a 2.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits in a victory over the Cubs on Tuesday, while also striking out five over seven frames of work. In eight trips to the hill this year Buchholz has given up more than two runs just once. He owns a sharp 0.99 WHIP and 36:9 K/BB over 45.1 frames. Lucchesi is so far 5-5 with a 3.34 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with no walks over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets on Monday. For the most part Lucchesi has been solid this season, but note that he’s just 1-2 with a 4.98 ERA in all “day” games. The pick: Arizona is 30-23 on the road, while San Diego is just 19-31 at home. Lucchesi’s been consistently inconsistent and I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Buchholz on the other hand comes in on top form and I look for him to carry that momentum over here. The price is right, play on the Diamondbacks. |
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07-29-18 | Blue Jays v. White Sox OVER 9.5 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 105 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Ryan Borucki, while the home side goes with Carlos Rodon. The pitchers: Borucki is so far 0-2 with a 2.79 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits while striking out just two over six innings in a tough luck loss against Minnesota on Tuesday. Borucki has been the victim of poor run support to this point (just ten runs over his five big-league outings), but the Jays catch a break here today facing the erratic Rodon. Rodon is so far 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with three walks over seven innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. Rodon has admittedly looked decent of late, but I still think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The pick: And that’s because Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last ten against teams with losing records (and in four of its last six against southpaws). The Whitesox aren’t known for their offensive prowess, so that’s why it’s important to note that they’ve seen the total go “over” seven of their last ten home games when the total in the contest is set at either 9 or 9.5. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and for this one to sail “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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07-29-18 | Phillies +117 v. Reds | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side goes with Luis Castillo The pitchers: Eflin is so far 7-2 with a 3.41 ERA. He comes in off an outing to forget, allowing three runs off five hits with three walks in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. Previous to this dud he’d won six of his last seven starts and despite the shaky performance, he still owns a solid 1.15 WHIP and 68:17 K/BB over 71.1 innings. Also note that he’s 3-1 with a 3.62 ERA on the road. Castillo is so far 5-8 with a 5.30 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Cardinals on Monday. Castillo has looked better over the last month, but he still owns a poor 2-5, 5.66 ERA record in all “day” games this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is a terrible 33-44 (-5.3 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Philadelphia is 45-35 (+9.5 units) against right-handed pitching. I’m banking on Eflin getting the better of Castillo and for the Phillies to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on Philadelphia. |
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07-29-18 | Twins +1.5 v. Red Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -165 | 16 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a few interesting match ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors send ace Jose Berrios to the hill, while the home side goes with the newly acquired Nate Eovaldi. The pitchers: Berrios is so far 10-7 with a 3.48 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings while striking out nine in a win over the Jays on Tuesday. To go along with his solid ERA, note that he also owns a sharp 1.00 WHIP and 136 strikeouts over 134.1 frames of work. Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Over ten starts for Tampa this season he’s posted a 4.26 ERA, 0.98 WHIP and 53 strikeouts over 57 frames of work. The pick: Eovaldi has been hit or miss in his limited time this season and he certainly draws a tough matchup in his first start for his new team. Berrios on the other hand is getting stronger as the season has progressed and I look for that trend to carry over here. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m grabbing the 1.5 runs. |
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07-28-18 | Mariners v. Angels -123 | Top | 5-11 | Win | 100 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Felix Hernandez has looked brilliant at times this season for the Mariners and very poor in others. Jaime Barria is coming off a difficult outing, but for the most part the rookie has been solid, especially at home. I like the home side in this one. The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-8 with a 5.14 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off five hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Saturday. While he does own a 4-3 record on the road, note that his ERA elevates to an unsightly 6.65 away from friendly confines. Barria is so far 5-7 with a 3.80 ERA. Barria most recently allowed four runs over five innings in a loss to the White Sox on Monday. Barria has struggled over the last month, but note that he has to be feeling pretty confident in this spot, having already posted a very respectable 3.01 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Seattle has been a great story this year, but I think Hernandez’s struggles on the road once again come back to haunt him here. Barria is the correct call, so lay the price. |
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07-28-18 | Brewers v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-1 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: This National League series features some interesting matchups, and this is definitely one of them. The Brewers go with Jhoulys Chacin, while the Giants go with Johnny Cueto. Runs would appear to be at a premium. The pitchers: Chacin is so far 9-3 with a 3.58 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits with no walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a victory over Washington on Monday. The veteran continues to produce consistent results, note that he’s 5-1 with a 3.67 ERA on the road as well. Cueto is so far 3-1 with a 2.76 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks in a no-decision to the A’s on Sunday. While he’s struggled over the three starts since returning from the DL, I still don’t think there’s any need to panic. Regression was imminent after his blistering start, but the veteran has the track record and pedigree to return to form. The pick: take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” the number in 45 of 75 against right-handed starters already this season, while San Francisco has seen the total go “under” the number in 35 of 60 against right-handed starters this year. Look for these |
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07-28-18 | Nationals -145 v. Marlins | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of big mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with Gio Gonzalez, while the home side goes with Trevor Richards. The pitchers: Gonzalez is so far 6-7 with a 3.94 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Brewers on Monday, allowing five earned runs off six hits over six innings in the eventual setback. Gonzalez has struggled a bit of late, but I still believe he’ll have more than enough to get the better of his counterpart tonight. Richards is so far 3-5 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over 6.2 innings in a no-decision against the Rays on Sunday. While he’s looked decent over the last two weeks, I’ll preach caution, as note that he still owns a poor 1.46 WHIP and pedestrian 63:32 K/BB over 69.1 frames of work. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 42-28 in its last 70 as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Miami is just 18-31 in its last 49 as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on the hard-hitting visiting side taking advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price. |
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07-28-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -170 | 22 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound tonight absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and the price in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Ariel Jurado, while the home side goes with ace Justin Verlander. The pitchers: Jurado is so far 0-1 with a 7.71 ERA. Jurado is filing the void left by Cole Hamels, so his spot in the rotation may come down to this single outing for the next while. In his one other appearance in the majors this season he was blown up on the road. Verlander is so far 10-5 with a 2.19 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless in a win over the Angels on Saturday, giving up five hits, walking two and striking out 11. Verlander had actually been quite pedestrian over three previous starts, so the hard-throwing right-hander will now look to build off this latest effort (note that he’s 8-2 with a tiny 1.81 ERA on the road though.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Texas is 29-43 (-9.4 units) against right-handed starters this year, while Houston is 44-21 (+9.4 units) against right-handed starters. This one has “b-l-o-w-o-u-t” written all over it. Play on the Astros on the run-line. |
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07-28-18 | Mets -137 v. Pirates | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -137 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some even match ups, but this isn’t one of them in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob DeGrom, while the home side goes with Trevor Williams. The pitchers: deGrom is so far 5-5 with a 1.71 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off five hits and two walks over eight innings in a loss to San Diego on Monday, also going on to strikeout ten. DeGrom has now gone 17 straight starts with allowing three earned runs or fewer. Note that he’s 3-2 with a 1.79 ERA on the road as well. Williams is so far 8-7 with a 4.11 ERA. He comes in off a win over Cleveland on Monday, going six scoreless with one strikeout. Williams has been hit or miss this year, but note that he’s still owns a pedestrian 4.56 ERA at home. The pick: DeGrom has been the victim of poor run support this season, but his numbers definitely put him in Cy Young contention. Williams has been “ok” over the last couple of weeks, but I think he’s in over his head in this matchup. My focus is on the starters and deGrom is undervalued here in my opinion. Lay the price. |
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07-28-18 | Phillies -120 v. Reds | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of relatively “even” match ups on the mound, but I think the Phillies have the advantage in this one. The visitors go with Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Matt Harvey. The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 7-8 with a 4.05 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings and struck out seven as well in a victory over San Diego on Sunday. Velasquez would throw 58 of his 87 pitches for strikes and he started 15 of the 24 opponents he faced with a strike. Over his last two starts he’s now posted ten strikeouts over 13 scoreless frames of work. Harvey is so far 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He’s moving in the opposite direction of Velasquez now, most recently giving up eight runs over 3.2 innings, including conceding four home runs. Note that Harvey owns a 5.72 ERA in all “home” games this year also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is 45-34 (+10.7 units) this year against right-handed starters, while Cincinnati is just 32-44 (-6.4 units) against right-handed starters. I like Velasquez to build of his recent performances and to get the better of Harvey once it’s all said and done. Play on the Phillies. |
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07-27-18 | Brewers v. Giants -138 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -138 | 25 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Two hungry veterans square off in this National League matchup on Friday night and in my opinion, the home side has the advantage. The Brewers send Chase Anderson to the hill, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Anderson is so far 6-7 with a 3.81 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Note that he would labor by throwing 104 pitches over the four innings. Bumgarner is so far 3-3 with a 3.19 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off two hits with five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to the A’s on Saturday. It was his shortest outing of the 2018 campaign, so I’m not reading too much into one shaky performance. Note as well that Bumgarner is a “lights out” 3-1 with a 1.95 ERA at home so far this year. The pick: Milwaukee is 58-46 overall, but just 25-26 on the road. San Francisco is 52-51 overall, but a much better 31-19 (+9.8 unit) in all home games. I’m banking on Bumgarner bouncing back and for Anderson to take a step back. Lay the price, play on the Giants. |
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07-27-18 | Diamondbacks -1.5 v. Padres | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 25 h 59 m | Show |
analysis soonThe set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the Diamondbacks on the “run-line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to ace Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Luis Perdomo. The pitchers: Greinke is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. Greinke most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings while striking out 13 and walking one in a win over Colorado on Sunday. Note that it was the sixth straight start in which he’s allowed two or fewer runs. Perdomo is so far 1-5 with a 6.99 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to Philadelphia on Sunday. Perdomo is so far 0-4 with an 11.29 ERA at home this year. The pick: Perdomo has shown nothing whatsoever to suggest that he’s going to suddenly “flip a switch” and regain his form. In fact, the right-hander will likely be moved back to the bullpen shortly when others become healthy. Greinke on the other hand has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and I look for that trend to carry over here with another dominant performance. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.” |
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07-27-18 | A's v. Rockies -112 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Kyle Freeland will continue his strong play at home, while I believe Sean Manea will struggle in this difficult venue for Oakland. The pitchers: Manaea is so far 9-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a victory over San Francisco on Sunday. Manaea has exceeded expectations to this point, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 4-6 with a 4.31 ERA in all “night” games. Freeland is so far 8-6 with a 3.28 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over five innings in a no-decision against the Diamondbacks on Saturday. Note though that it was just the fourth this time this year that he’s given up more than three earned runs. Additionally note that Freeland owns a sharp 3.1 per nine innings walk rate over 120.2 frames of work this year. The pick: I think Manaea struggles in this difficult venue and also in playing under the National League format. Freeland on the other hand has a major advantage with the familiarity in my opinion and in the end, I believe that’ll be the difference. Play on the Rockies. |
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07-27-18 | Rangers v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 11-2 | Loss | -125 | 23 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the defending champs on the “run line” the correct call in this one in my opinion. The visitors go with Yovani Gallardo, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Gallardo is so far 4-1 with a 7.18 ERA. Gallardo comes in off a strong outing against the Tribe on Sunday, going six scoreless, striking out one and walking four. I’ll point out though that it was the first start this year that Gallardo has given up less than three earned runs. To go along with his atrocious ERA, he also owns a terrible 21:17 K/BB spanning 36.1 innings. Keuchel is so far 8-8 with a 3.53 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits over eight innings in a win over the Angels on Friday. Over his last four starts Kuechel is now 4-0 and he’s posted 18 strikeouts in the process. The pick: Gallardo has been consistently inconsistent all year and after his latest gem, a predictable “letdown” looks imminent to me. Keuchel on the other hand has finally “found his groove” and I look for the veteran to continue his progression. Lay the 1.5 runs, play the Astros on the “run line.” |
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07-27-18 | Twins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -165 | 22 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The massive talent gap on the mound in this matchup makes the hard-hitting home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn, while the Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale. The pitchers: Lynn is so far 7-8 with a 5.23 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off three hits with six walks over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Twins on Saturday. Lynn has struggled in July, posting a 7.1 BB/9 and a 7.13 ERA spanning just 17.2 frames of work. Sale is so far 11-4 with a 2.13 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against Detroit on Sunday, striking out nine in the process. Sale has now given up just five runs over his last 54 frames, to go along with 87 strikeouts. His 2.13 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 197:31 K/BB over 135 frames lead the league in most categories. The pick: Lynn’s been a disaster overall this season and he’s seemingly gotten worse as it has worn on. It’s been the exact opposite for Sale though, who has gotten stronger with each start. I look for those trends to carry over here. Lay the 1.5 runs, play on the Red Sox on the “run line.” |
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07-26-18 | A's -130 v. Rangers | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Trevor Cahill is well worth the price of admission in this particular matchup. The home side sends the venerable Bartolo Colon to the hill. The pitchers: Cahill is so far 1-2 with a 2.95 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits while striking out five over 5.2 innings in a win over the Giants on Saturday. Cahill would induce 13 swinging strikes on only 79 pitches. Note that he now owns a very respectable 1.02 WHIP over 58 innings. Colon is far 4-8 with a 4.85 ERA. Colon has been more “miss” than “hit” this season, as he’s regressed considerably after a decent start to the 2018 campaign. Note that he owns a 5.01 ERA at home also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 41-26 (+19.2 units) already this year against right-handed starters, while Texas is only 29-41 (-7.4 units) against right-handed starters this season. I think Cahill outlasts Colon and I look for the red hot A’s to get the job done in the end. Lay the price. |
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07-26-18 | Mets v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 12-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who have looked brilliant at times and poor in others so far this season meet on Thursday night and everything points to a “slug-fest” in my opinion. The visitors go with Stephen Matz, while the home side goes with Nick Kingham. The pitchers: Matz is so far 4-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He returned from the break to get shelled for five runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to the Yankees on Saturday. Matz has been decent overall this year, but his latest start is definitely a worry if you’re a Mets fan. Kingham is so far 5-4 with a 4.11 ERA. He most recently allowed two runs off four hits over 6.1 innings in a victory over Cincinnati on Saturday. Kingham has admittedly been quite sharp over the last month, however I’ll point out that the rookie still has a poor 5.51 ERA in all “night” games this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Mets have seen the total go “over” the number in 17 of their last 27 road games as an underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while the Pirates have seen the total go “over” in 52 of their last 85 as a home favorite -125 to -175 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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07-26-18 | Royals v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-7 | Push | 0 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who struggled over the first half meet on Thursday night and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Jake Junis, while the home side goes with Sonny Gray. The pitchers: Junis is so far 5-10 with a 5.03 ERA. Junis most recently allowed one run off four hits with two walks over four innings while striking out six in a no-decision to the Twins on Saturday. Junis looked decent, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 3-8 with a 5.86 ERA in all “night” games. Gray is so far 7-7 with a 5.34 ERA. Gray gave up three runs over 5.1 innings in a win over the Mets in his first start back from the All Star game. Gray’s been better of late and while he’s been better on the road than at home, I’ll point out that he’s still a terrible 3-6 with a 6.60 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: New York is the most prolific offensive team in the league and while the Royals aren’t known for their offensive prowess, the visitors catch a break here facing the erratic Gray. Junis has been consistently inconsistent all year and I believe he’ll predictably stumble in this difficult venue. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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07-26-18 | Rays v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -117 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who have struggled matchup together on Thursday night and everything points to more issues for each in the second. The visitors go with Hunter Wood, while the home side goes with Alex Cobb. The pitchers: Wood isn't expected to go long, just an inning or two. In his last start, he did allow one run and two hits (in just two innings). Cobb is so far 2-13 with a 6.17 ERA. He came out of the break and gave up four runs off four hits with three walks over 3.5 innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday. Unfortunately for Cobb a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get back on track, as he’s 0-5 with a 5.86 ERA in friendly confines so far. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Tampa has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten on the road when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125, while Baltimore has seen the total go “over” in eight of its last ten against the division. This number is a little low in my opinion, play the “over.” |
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07-25-18 | White Sox v. Angels -1.5 | Top | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 29 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The talent gap on the mound is big. Their is also a big discrepancy at the plate as well. Both those factors combine to make the home side on the “run line” the correct call in my opinion. The visitors go with James Shields, while the home side hands the ball to Tyler Skaggs. The pitchers: Shields is so far 4-11 with a 4.26 ERA. Shields earned a loss in his first start back after the break, giving up two runs over seven innings in a setback to the Mariners on Friday. Shields has been on a decent run of late, but note that he’s still a pathetic 1-6 with a 5.47 ERA on the road. Skaggs is so far 7-6 with a 2.68 ERA. Skaggs gave up three runs over six innings in a loss to the Astros on Friday. Over his last seven trips to the hill he’s posted six quality efforts and to go along with his sharp ERA, note that he also sports a 1.22 WHIP and impressive 106:31 K/BB over 104 innings this season The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is just 6-16 (-4.1 units) this year as a road dog in the +175 to +250 range, while LA is 7-1 (+5.1 units) as a home fav in the -175 to -250 range. No upsets here, lay the price, play on the Angels. |
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07-25-18 | Pirates v. Indians -167 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: No upset here in my opinion, as I look for Trevor Bauer to take advantage of familiar surroundings and get the better of his inter-league counterpart. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon. The pitchers: Taillon is so far 7-7 with a 3.80 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Reds on Friday, giving up one run over 5.1 innings in the eventual victory. Taillon has been decent of late, but I still think he’ll have his hands full in this difficult venue. Bauer is so far 8-6 with 2.44 ERA. Bauer came out of the break with a “dud” against Texas on Friday, giving up four runs and striking out seven over four innings in what turned out to be no-decision. Previous to that though he’d posted eight straight quality efforts, so there’s no reason not to think he won’t make an immediate bounce back here (note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.23 ERA at home still.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is already a terrible 3-13 (-8.4 units) this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Cleveland is 57-31 (+9 units) in its last 88 as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Overwhelming factors working in favor of the home side in this one, so lay the price. |
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07-25-18 | Cardinals -123 v. Reds | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -123 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither starter has been fantastic, but one has been consistently better than the other. And I believe that trend carries over into their head-to-head matchup. The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side goes with Sal Romano. The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 4-4 with a 3.15 ERA. He was “on point” in his first start back from the break, giving up one run off two hits with nine strikeouts over five innings in what turned out be an 18-5 laugher over the Cubs on Friday. Note that he’s a highly respectable 3-0 with a tiny 2.08 ERA in all “day” games this year as well. Romano is so far 5-8 with a 5.19 ERA. Over 20 appearances he’s posted an uninspiring 5.19 ERA and 1.43 WHIP. Note that he’s also just 4-4 with a 4.98 ERA at home and only 1-2 with a 4.76 ERA in all “day” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 8-4 (+2.8 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Cincinnati is just 15-20 (-5.1 units) at home when the money line in the contest is set between +125 and -125 this year. The price is right, play on the Cards. |
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07-25-18 | Yankees -140 v. Rays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -140 | 1 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rays will now go with Ryne Stanek instead of Nathan Eovaldi. Regardless, I expect Luis Cessa and the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage of this favorable matchup. The pitchers: Cessa is so far 1-1 with a 3.00 ERA this year. He’s been called up to the big team after the recent demotion of Domingo German. Cessa comes in sporting serviceable numbers over 82.1 innings, including a 4.37 ERA and 61 strikeouts. Stanek won't be asked to go long (just an inning or two), which is the norm for him in this unique role. Though he'll never qualify for an actual decision, the team has lost 8 of his 13 "starts" including each of the last two. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is interestingly 7-2 in its last nine in all day road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -150 range, while Tampa Bay is just 5-6 in its last 11 day home games in which it’s a dog in the +125 to +150 range. Look for Cessa to at the very least match Eovaldi’s effort and for the Yanks’ big bats to take care of the rest. Lay the price. |
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07-24-18 | Dream +4 v. Sparks | Top | 81-71 | Win | 100 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Note that this is a revenge game for the Dream after they fell 72-64 in LA earlier in the season. This is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league. It also features two of the best players in Tiffany Hayes and Candace Parker. The teams: The Dream are 15-9 and in second place. They’ll be eager to avenge the earlier loss and to stay ahead of the No. 3 Sparks. Atlanta comes in on top form, having won seven straight, while LA has been shaky with a 4-6 record over its last ten. Atlanta most recently layed the smack down in Seattle with an 87-74 win. Elizabeth Williams had 17 points for the Dream in that one.. The Sparks got back on track with a win over the Chicago Sky in their latest action. Parker had 19 points in that one, while Nneka Ogwumike had 18 points and 11 boards. The pick: As mentioned off the top, this is a matchup of two of the better defensive clubs in the league, as the Sparks allow 77.4 PPG, while the Dream allow 78.9. But LA has struggled with offensive consistency over the last month, while Atlanta is surging right now, playing with complete chemistry. It’s a perfect storm of factors working in favor of the visitors tonight. Play on Atlanta. |
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07-24-18 | White Sox v. Angels -173 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -173 | 22 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Carlos Rodon hasn’t been completely terrible this year, but I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup. The home side goes with Felix Pena in this one. The pitchers: Rodon is so far 2-3 with a 3.56 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d allow zero runs over 7.1 innings in a win over St. Louis. As I stated off the top, Rodon has been decent this season, but note that he’s been horrible on the road with an 0-3, 5.16 ERA record. Pena is so far 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d given up one earned run off three hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers. Over 26.1 innings he’s posted a respectable 1.33 WHIP. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Chicago is just 22-55 (-22.2 units) the last three season as a road underdog in the +125 to +175 range, while LA is 47-30 (+4.4 units) as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I look for Pena to outduel Rodon and for the Angels to take advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price. |
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07-24-18 | Diamondbacks +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this is a very fair trade off (laying the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs.) The visitors go with Clay Buchholz, while the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks. The teams: Buchholz is so far 2-1 with a 2.56 ERA. He landed on the ten-day DL prior to the All Star Game, but he’s been given the green light to proceed with his bounce back season, coming into this one with a 2.56 ERA, a 0.96 WHIP and a 31:7 K/BB over 38.2 innings. Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.99 ERA. Hendricks opened the second half with a no-decision against the Cardinals on Thursday, allowing three runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings. So far he’s already been shelled for a career-high 18 homers this season and note that he’s just 5-5 with a 4.52 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to lay the price for the extra runs. Play on Arizona on the “run line.” |
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07-24-18 | Twins -114 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The middle game of this American League series sees Twins’ ace Jose Berrios go up against Jays rookie Ryan Borucki. While he’s looked decent in his limited time and while the sky could indeed be the limit for Borucki’s career, I still think he’s in over his head in this matchup. The pitchers: Berrios is so far 9-7 with a 3.68 ERA. Berrios earned a no-decision in his final outing before the break, giving up six runs while striking out five over six innings against the Rays. Starts like that have been pretty rare for Berrios this season though, who comes in having still posted quality efforts in six of his last eight trips to the hill (is worthy to note that he’s 6-2 with a 3.09 ERA in all night games. Respectable for sure.) Borucki is so far 0-1 with a 3.52 ERA. Borucki returns from Triple-A to make this start, so far he’s been shelled for nine earned runs while posting a pedestrian 21:10 K/BB over 23 frames of work. The pick: Let’s face it, both teams have been disappointments this year. Neither will be in the postseason. Each has had to deal with significant injury issues. For this one though, I’m concentrating on the starting pitchers and in my opinion, there’s no reason not to think that Berrios won’t be able to get the better of his still unproven/younger counterpart. Lay the price, play on Minnesota. |
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07-23-18 | A's v. Rangers -111 | Top | 15-3 | Loss | -111 | 22 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas closed out a series with Cleveland over the weekend, while the A’s were at home in an inter-league matchup with the Giants. On paper it would appear as if these starters are evenly matched, but I think Cole Hamels has the slight advantage at home. The visitors go with the erratic Brett Anderson. The pitchers: Anderson is so far 1-2 with a 6.08 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d give up three runs over 3.1 innings to San Francisco in what turned out to be a no-decision. Anderson has how now managed to throw six innings only once in six trips to the hill this season (owns a poor 1.86 WHIP over 23.2 innings). Hamels is so far 5-8 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d give up four runs over 6.1 innings in a victory over the Orioles. Hamels admittedly struggled over his final three starts, but the break comes at a great time for the veteran and I believe the southpaw responds here with the extra time off (is 5-2 with a 2.93 ERA in all “night” games YTD.) The pick: Hamels is the correct call here in my opinion. The veteran gets back on track in his first start in the second half, while I predict Anderson’s inconsistencies get carried over in this difficult venue. Play on the Rangers. |
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07-23-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Indians | Top | 7-0 | Push | 0 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh won big in Cincinnati on Sunday afternoon, while the Indians were on the road in Texas. Clearly Cleveland has the advantage on the mound with ace Corey Kluber, but I think the Pirates can carry their momentum over from yesterday’s convincing victory and keep this one close enough to at the very least, cover with the spread once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams. The pitchers: Williams is so far 7-7 with a 4.36 ERA. In his final start before the All Star game he’d go five scoreless against the Nationals. I think Williams benefits here in the AL format and also with the extra time off because of the break. Kluber is so far 12-5 with a 2.76 ERA. Kluber was forced to miss the All Star game because of an injection in his knee. Kluber was then shut-down for a week, but he’s been cleared to go here. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Pittsburgh is a red hot 10-2 (+6.8 units) this year in all inter-league games, while Cleveland is just 18-25 (-14.9 units) against clubs with winning records. Look for the Bucs to keep the good times rolling with a competitive effort in the opener of this inter-league series, but grab the extra run-and-a-half as insurance. |
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07-23-18 | Dodgers -133 v. Phillies | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: LA was busy in Milwaukee on Sunday, while the Phillies had a double-header at home against the Padres. Two starters which put together above average first half performances collide in the opener of this one, but I believe Ross Stripling and the visitors have the advantage. The home side goes with Zach Eflin. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-2 with a 2.08 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d allow just six hits and one walk with five strikeouts over six shutout frames of work. 58 of Stripling’s 90 pitches went for strikes and it pushed his walk rate down to 1.3 BB/9. Stripling also comes in confident with the 4-2, 1.81 ERA record on the road. Eflin is so far 7-2 with a 3.15 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about Eflin, as for the most part he’s exceeded expectations for the Phillies this season. But note that he did land on the 10-day DL prior to the All Star break because of a blister issue, so I’m definitely thinking that the extra rest will in fact lead to some rust in this one. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 57-38 the last three seasons as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Philadelphia is just 20-34 in the same time span as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I think Stripling outlasts Eflin and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to take the opener of this National League series. Play on the Dodgers. |
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07-22-18 | Padres v. Phillies -172 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Padres and Phillies were rained out yesterday and because of that, they’ll play a double-header on Sunday. We’re focusing on the second game, as I expect the home side to have the upper-hand in this particular matchup. The visitors go with Luis Perdomo, while the home side goes with Vince Velasquez. The pitchers: Perdomo is so far just 1-4 with a 7.55 ERA. Perdomo has been a disaster in his limited time for the Padres this season, having to deal with injury issues. Velasquez is so far 5-8 with a 4.39 ERA. He finished the first half with a strong start against the Mets, scattering two hits over six scoreless innings, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. While his ERA isn’t the best, note that he does own an impressive 110:35 K/BB over 94.1 innings so far this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is a terrible 28-43 (-7.5 units) this season in all “night” games, while Philly is 34-27 (+7.3 units) in all “night” contests. I think Perdomo struggles after his scheduled start was delayed and I think Velasquez can take advantage. Lay the price with confidence, play on the Phillies in Game 2. |
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07-22-18 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -167 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona’s ace Zack Grienke has been “lights out” at home, and I expect that trend to carry over here. The Rockies’ Antonio Senzatela is in over his head in my opinion. The pitchers: Senzatela is so far 3-2 with a 5.34 ERA. He comes off the ten day DL due to a blister issue, but in his final start before the break he’d give up six runs over six innings in a loss to the Mariners. Greinke is so far 10-5 with a 3.18 ERA. In his final start before the mid summer classic he’d go eight scoreless in a victory over Atlanta, walking one and striking out seven. To go along with his sharp ERA, Greinke also owns a 1.15 WHP and 9.2 K/9 over 20 starts this season. The pick: And as I mentioned off the top, Greinke has been better at home (4-1, 2.56 ERA) than on the road (6-4, 3.77) so far this year. This is a mismatch of epic proportions on the mound in my opinion and it makes the home side well worth the price of admission in this matchup. Lay the price. |
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07-22-18 | Indians -161 v. Rangers | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -161 | 7 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: One of these starters has been consistent from the “get go,” while the other has been a complete train wreck. The visitors go with Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo. The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 7-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs (four earned) while striking out eight in a sub-par setback to the hard-hitting Yankees on Saturday. Note though that it was only the second time this season that he’s given up multiple home runs in a game. Also note that Clevinger has been sharp on the road this year with a 4-2, 2.61 ERA record. Gallardo is so far 3-1 with an 8.60 ERA. In his final start before the break he’d be rocked for six runs off seven hits over five innings against Boston. Over 30.1 innings of work this season Gallardo owns a disturbing 8.60 ERA, 1.71 WHIP and 20:13 K/BB. The pick: Gallardo has been downright terrible and I don’t think the All Star break will change anything here for the veteran. Clevinger on the other hand was clearly fading as the first half closed, so the extra time off will be extremely beneficial in my opinion. |
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07-21-18 | Giants +114 v. A's | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants rallied for a 5-1 win in yesterday’s inter-league matchup and I think the visitors will find a way to the winners circle on Saturday night as well. San Francisco goes with Madison Bumgarner on the mound this evening, while Oakland goes with Trevor Cahill. The pitchers: Bumgarner is so far 3-3 with a 2.90 ERA. The veteran closed the first half strong with back to back strong outings. Bumgarner started the year injured and after a couple of “ho hum” starts after returning to the rotation, the big southpaw has gotten progressively better with each performance. Cahill is so far 1-2 with a 3.10 ERA. Cahill has also had to deal with injury this year and while the veteran has been sharp at home, I think he’s going to have his hands full today with this talented Giants’ line-up. The pick: Both teams come in with winning records, but note that San Francisco is 33-27 against right-handed pitchers this season, while Oakland is just 15-17 against left-handed starters. I look for these strong trends to hold true again here. Play on the Giants. |
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07-21-18 | Pirates v. Reds -113 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh humbled Cincinnati 12-1 yesterday. Suffice it to say, I think “revenge” is in the cards on Saturday night. The visitors go with Nick Kingham, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani. The pitchers: Kingham is so far 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Kingham for the most part has performed admirably in his first year in the big leagues. If he’s had one glaring weakness though, clearly it’s been his performance on the road (just 1-3 with a 6.41 ERA away from friendly confines.) DeSclafani is so far 4-2 with a 5.32 ERA. He’s struggled at times this season, but note that the Reds are 35-25 (+11.5 units) in their last 60 at home when the money line in the contest is set between -125 and +125. The pick: The Pirates exploded for the convincing victory yesterday, but note that they’re still a terrible 20-25 (-3.4 units) on the road this year. After yesterday’s pathetic effort, I’m expecting a big response from the home side in this one. Play on Cincinnati. |
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07-21-18 | Red Sox -164 v. Tigers | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -164 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Sox held on for a 1-0 win yesterday as a -200 favorite. Suffice it to say, I’m predicting a more decisive victory for the visitors on Saturday night. Boston goes with Brian Johnson in this one, while Detroit goes with Mike Fiers. The pitchers: Johnson is so far 1-2 with a 4.20 ERA. He returns rested after a stint on the DL and the All Star break. Johnson hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been sharp on the road with a 1-1, 2.79 ERA this season. Fiers is so far 6-6 with a 3.70 ERA. Fiers for the most part has been solid for Detroit this year and it’s difficult to point out too many negative faults. If he has had one though, it’s been his play in all “night” games where he’s just 3-6 with a 4.56 ERA. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is 40-17 (+9.3 units) this year against clubs with losing records, while Detroit is just 13-29 (-5.4 units) against teams with winning records this season. Also note that the Tigers are a terrible 21-37 (-4.8 units) following a loss, while Boston is 48-20 (+17.8 units) following a win. I’m banking on the hard-hitting Red Sox to post a lop-sided victory tonight, so lay the price. |
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07-21-18 | Winnipeg -2 v. Toronto | Top | 38-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg will be eager to get back on track here after falling 20-17 at BC last weekend, a game in which it held a 17-0 half-time lead. The Blue Bombers open a home and home set against an Argos team which just finished splitting a home and home series with the Eskimos. The teams: Winnipeg QB Matt Nichols threw three second half INT’s last weekend and his team would fall to a disappointing 2-3 on the season. RB Andrew Harris though was a bright spot with 139 yards on the ground. Harris now leads the league with 449 rushing yards over five games. The Argos go with QB James Franklin again, as he makes his third start in place of the injured Ricky Ray (lost for the season.) Last week Franklin looked to receiver SJ Green, who had 110 yards on ten catches last weekend. Previous to that though Green had just 105 yards total over three games to open the season. RB James Wilder Jr. looked pathetic last week though with just 26 yards of offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Winnipeg is a perfect 3-0 ATS in its last three as a road favorite of three points or less, wile Toronto is a terrible 11-17 ATS in its last 28 when playing the role of underdog. I think Nichols bounces back, while all sins point to Franklin and company struggling again. Lay the points, play on the Bombers. |
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07-20-18 | Giants +116 v. A's | Top | 5-1 | Win | 116 | 27 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: While he’s looked decent in his limited time for the A’s this year, I think Edwin Jackson takes a step back in this tough interleague matchup. Derek Rodriguez and the Giants will look to take advantage. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 4-1 with a 2.89 ERA. The rookie has completely exceeded expectations and his peripherals suggest that his early numbers are sustainable. Rodriguez is so far 1-1 with a 3.79 ERA on the road and 2-0 with a 2.53 ERA in all “night” games. Jackson is so far 1-1 with a 2.59 ERA. Jackson struggled in consecutive starts before the break after opening strong for his new team. It’s hard to trust the veteran after consecutive years of complete ineptitude, as note that he was just 3-5 with a 6.40 ERA in all “home” games last year. The pick: I think we can throw stats out the window here. I’m basing this particular play on the starting pitchers. Rodriguez enters on top form, while Jackson looks poised for a major letdown against this tough Giants’ line-up. Play on San Francsico. |
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07-20-18 | Wings v. Sky +6.5 | Top | 99-114 | Win | 100 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Liz Cambage scored a WNBA best 53 points in the Dallas Wings’ victory last Tuesday, but they’re in action on Thursday night against a tough Washington Mystics side at home. Can anyone say “letdown spot?!” Chicago will look to take advantage and to also avenge an earlier loss to the Wings. The teams: Dallas is not surprisingly led by Cambage with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way on the glass with 9.2 boards per night. The Sky are led by Allie Quigley with 16.1 PPG, while Courtenay Vandersloot adds 7.6 assists. Cheyenne Parker chips in 6.3 boards per game. The pick: Clearly Dallas will be tired here in the second game of the back-to-back. Chicago though comes in rested and focused and take it for what you will, but note that the Sky are 16-8 ATS in their last 24 in trying to revenge an “in season” SU loss to an opponent in which it gave up 100 or more points in. A great situational play on the Chicago Sky. |
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07-20-18 | BC v. Ottawa OVER 53 | Top | 25-29 | Win | 100 | 34 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Both team’s are 2-2 to open the season. While the “under” may be 3-0-1 in the last four in this series, I’m predicting that these two hungry sides open up the playbook and push the pace from start to finish, ultimately pushing this one “over” once it’s all said and done. The teams: This is the first meeting between the clubs this year, but last season the Redblacks won both match ups. BC will be out for revenge, but it’ll also be looking to build off its come from behind 20-17 victory over Winnipeg last weekend. The Lions are still desperate for a breakout offensive performance, having not scored more than 22 points in a game this year. Travis Lulay returned from injury and he looked good for BC, going 28 of 41 for 326 yards and a TD. The Lions have struggled with consistency on the road, so they clearly won’t be taking anything for granted here. Ottawa will be eager to take out its frustrations after a dismal 27-3 loss to Calgary last week at home. The Redblacks managed just 169 total yards of offense. QB Trevor Harris passed for only 93 yards and was picked twice. The pick: While each team struggled offensively last week, I believe the conditions are right for a more wide open affair between these two non-conference opponents. Take it for what you will as well, but BC has seen the total go “over” the number in four of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while Ottawa has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a home fav in the same points range. Play the “over.” |
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07-20-18 | Marlins v. Rays -158 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -158 | 24 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Dan Straily and the offensively challenged Marlins struggle in the opener of this interleague series. Nate Eovaldi and the Rays will look to take advantage. The pitchers: Straily is so far 3-4 with a 4.29 ERA. He’s been hit or miss this year and he comes into this one with a 1-3, 3.67 ERA record on the road. Eovaldi is so far 3-4 with a 4.59 ERA. He has looked brilliant at times this year and extremely pedestrian in others. Eovaldi has however been at his absolute best in front of the home town crowd this season by going 1-0 with a 2.45 ERA thus far. The pick: And take it for what you will, but Miami is a poor 14-17 in its last 31 when playing with three or more days of rest while Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days of rest. I like the Rays to take advantage of this favorable matchup and for Eovaldi to out duel his interleague counterpart. Play on Tampa. |
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07-20-18 | Cardinals v. Cubs UNDER 10.5 | Top | 18-5 | Loss | -105 | 1 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: Two pitchers who put together great first half efforts go head-to-head in this National League contest on Friday afternoon and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel.” The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 3-4 with a 3.24 ERA. In his last start before the break he was forced to leave early after allowing three runs (just two earned) off four hits over 2.1 innings in a no-decision to San Francisco. Overall though Flaherty has been consistent this year and he’ll surely benefit from the extra time off. Note that he’s 2-0 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well. Lester is so far 12-2 with a 2.58 ERA. The veteran has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and there’s no question that he’ll also have benefited from the extra time off because of the All Star Classic. Note that he’s 5-1 with a minuscule 1.98 ERA at home this season and 7-0 with a 2.22 ERA in all “day” games as well. The pick: Recent form displayed by these starters, coupled with the overall situation point to runs being at a premium in this afternoon matchup. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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07-19-18 | Mystics +4 v. Wings | Top | 81-90 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Wings’ Liz Cambage just broke the WNBA record with 53 points in her team’s 104-87 win over New York. Cambage is only one player, but after such a momentous occasion, I believe the entire team suffers a mental letdown here. These teams haven’t played yet this year, as this marks the first of three between them. Washington and Elena Delle Donne will look to take advantage. The teams: Delle Donne leads the Mystics with 20.6 PPG, while Natasha Cloud adds 4.5 assists. Delle Donne is also the leader on the boards with 6.9 per game. Cambage leads the way offensively for the Wings with 21.4 PPG, while Skylar Diggins-Smith adds 6.5 assists. Cambage also leads the way with 9.2 boards per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after being held to 80 points or less in its previous contest (fell 80-77 to open its five-game road trip), while Dallas is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 after scoring 100 points or more. With a game tomorrow night in Chicago, I think the Mystics also get caught “looking ahead” in this one. Play on Washington. |
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07-19-18 | Saskatchewan +11.5 v. Hamilton | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 69 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders are 2-2 and the Ti-Cats are also 2-2. Hamilton doesn’t have a QB controversy on its hands right now, with Jeremiah Masoli under center. Saskatchewan has issues at the QB position however, with Brandon Bridges seeing time for an injured Zach Collaros this year. Regardless of that fact though, I believe the visitors will keep this one a lot more competitive than what this line would suggest. The teams: Note that the Riders have won five of their last seven road games outright. Bridges will be leaning heavily on his run game here, a unit which has so far averaged 103.8 YPG. Jerome Messam so far has 110 yards on 32 carries. Defensively though Saskatchewan has been tough, allowing 23.8 points and 366 yards per game. Keep your eyes on Derrick Moncrief, who leads the teams with 20 tackles thus far. Masoli is so far completing 65.8 percent of his passes for 1,378 yards and four touchdowns. He also has four INT’s though. The ground game is averaging 114.8 YPG, led by Mercer Timmis, who has 175 yards and four touchdowns already. Hamilton has also been strong on the defensive side this year, allowing an average of 21 points and 338.8 YPG. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan is 5-2 in is last seven following its bye week, while Hamilton is still only 4-10-2 ATS in its last 16 home games. The Roughriders have won four straight in this series and while I’m definitely not calling for an outright upset here or anything like that, as I stated off the top, I do believe that everything points to this one coming right down to the wire. Grab as many points as you can, play on Saskatchewan. |
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07-19-18 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: While I obviously wouldn’t be completely shocked by an outright upset, I’m going to recommend laying what I feel to be a very reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half. The visitors go with Carlos Martinez and the home side goes with Kyle Hendricks. The pitchers: Martinez is so far 6-5 with a 3.08 ERA. He most recently beat the Giants, giving up one run off six hits over seven innings while striking out three. It was Martinez’s third straight victory and his ninth quality start of the season. After a small shaky stretch, Martinez is back on track across the board and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 4-3, 3.57 ERA record on the road. Hendricks is so far 6-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over eight innings in a no-decision against San Francisco. Starts like that though were few and far between over the first half for Hendricks, who has just two quality efforts out of his last nine trips to the hill. The pick: Take it for what you will, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine when playing with three or more days rest, while Chicago is just 15-17 in its last 32 when playing with three or more days of rest. Martinez comes in as the much more consistent hurler and there’s no reason not to think that the hard-throwing right-hander won’t keep that momentum rolling with extra time off. Hendricks comes off a strong start, but I believe his inconsistencies come back to haunt him again. Play on St. Louis on the run-line. |
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07-18-18 | Fever v. Lynx -14.5 | Top | 65-89 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Home floor advantage has meant little so far in the season series between these clubs, with the Fever winning 71-59 at Minnesota, before the Lynx responding with an 87-65 win at Indiana a week later. After beating the Fever on July 11th, Minnesota has since dropped two straight home games. The Fever though are in a complete “free fall” right now, having dropped four in a row. The teams: Indiana is led by Kelsey Mitchell with 13.5 PPG, while Erica Wheeler dishes out 4 assists per night. Natalie Achonwa leads the way on the boards with 6.8 per night. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18 PPG, while Lindsay Whalen added 3.6 assists. Sylvia Fowles controls the boards with 11.9 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indiana is 3-7 ATS in its last ten after a three games or more SU winless streak, while Minnesota is 6-2 in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS home losses. The Fever get caught “looking ahead” here to their West coast game on Friday night at the Sparks and the Lynx take full advantage and get back on track with a big effort in the final game of their current three-game home stand. Lay the points. |
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07-17-18 | Dream v. Sun -8 | Top | 86-83 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Two red hot teams collide on Tuesday night. The Atlanta Dream have won four straight, while the Connecticut Sun have won two in a row. Ultimately I believe that the home court advantage will prove to be the difference maker in this one. The teams: The Dream come in having won four straight. Atlanta is led by Tiffany Hayes with 17.3 PPG, while Alex Bentley dishes out 4.3 assists per night. Jessica Breland leads the charge on the boards with 8.2 a night. The Sun have won back-to-back games, most recently 83-64 on the road in Minnesota (I had Connecticut in that one) and they are led by Chiney Ogwumike with 15 points per night, while Alyssa Thomas adds 4.5 assists per game. Thomas also leads the way on the boards with 9.4 per night. The pick: These teams are very familiar with each other and as I mentioned off the top, I do indeed believe that “home court” will play a significant role in the outcome of this one, as note that the Sun smashed the Dream 74-58 at home in the first meeting between the clubs this year, before Atlanta then won both subsequent home games, 82-77 and 75-70. With a chance for revenge after back-to-back losses in this series, I look for Connecticut to build off its recent win skein, while everything does definitely point to a letdown finally for the Dream after their recent run of success. Play on the Sun. |
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