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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-22 | Heat v. 76ers +3.5 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
Joel Embiid has been downgraded to OUT for Game 3 and that’s not the news Philadelphia wanted to hear as the Sixers are already down 2-0 in this series with Miami. But the Heat have a number of “banged up” players themselves and considering the sense of desperation for the Sixers (who are now back home), I like them to cover in this spot. The market reacted swiftly to the Embiid news with Miami now favored by a few points on the road. But don’t forget, up two games to none in the first round, they lost Game 3 at Atlanta. Even without Embiid, the 76ers are a stronger team than the Hawks. They have James Harden, Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris. Maxey and Harris each turned in a breakout game in Miami. But Harden was disappointing in the two games, scoring only 36 points and shooting 11 of 28 from the field. I expect him to play a lot better tonight. As a team, look for Philly to shoot much better from three-point land than they did in either of the first two games. They are 14 of 64 from behind the arc in the series. That’s well below their season average of 36.4% for the year. This will be the 76ers first time playing at home in 12 days and only their second game here since April 18th. I expect the place will be “rocking.” Take the home underdog. |
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05-06-22 | Hurricanes +120 v. Bruins | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The Bruins head home, down 2-0, and will be missing Lindholm on defense. They will switch goaltenders, hoping for a spark from Swayman. The Hurricanes have limited the Bruins to just 3 goals, which is not surprising as they are the top defensive team in the NHL. The Canes’ goaltender is a question mark at the moment, but both options played well in game 2. What is surprising is the Canes’ offense, scoring 10 goals on a usually stingy Bruins team. Can the Bruins find success on home ice? I don’t think so. Carolina was strong on the road all season, and have basically steamrolled the Bruins to date. Swayman has no experience in the playoffs. The big three Bruins forwards have not shone yet in this series. Carolina is an underdog, but I think they are still too much for an aging Bruins team to handle. Take Carolina to win. |
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05-05-22 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -120 | 10 h 23 m | Show |
Miami was swept by the D-backs, and are up against a tougher opponent in the Padres. Lefty Jesus Luzardo (3.10) starts for the Marlins. Other than one poor start, he has been very strong, giving up just I HR and striking out 28. His mound opponent, Nick Martinez(4.12 ERA) hasn’t been quite as effective, with relatively short starts and some control issues. The Marlins have the edge in relief pitching for the season; it was the starters who let them down vs the Diamondbacks. The Padres’ bullpen has a collective ERA over 4, and has bulged to 4.80 in their last 5 games. Surprisingly, the Marlins also have an edge in offense at the moment, and hit better against right-handers. The Padres are hitting poorly for average and middle of the pack for power, but for the season have hit left-handers better. It is tough to pick a favorite in this game, so I am looking to the total today. Martinez’s control issues are a concern as is the Padres’ bullpen. The total is low for this match-up, too low for my liking. Take the Marlins and Padres to go over. |
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05-05-22 | Predators v. Avalanche -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The Preds are in a pickle early. They were rolled over by the Avalanche, and are without starting goalie Saros. They will need to play tighter and tougher today, The Av's are clipping along a top speed and are a tough opponent anywhere, but are nearly unbeatable at home. Nashville will need to find some quality goaltending and Rittich was not the answer in Game one. It likely won't be as easy, but I expect another fine performance from the Av's today. Colorado - 1 1/2. |
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05-05-22 | Nationals v. Rockies OVER 10.5 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 9 m | Show |
It is a long time since Aaron Sanchez pitched successfully. He finished last season poorly and has just 2 very average starts this year. He likely won’t last long and may not prosper in Coors Field. Rockies starter Senzatela, has pitched well in the rarefied airs of Colorado. In 4 starts to date, he had just one “rocky” one and that was in Detroit. He was very good vs the Reds last start. Both teams are top 5 in batting and have hit the ball particularly hard lately. The Nationals have scored 38 runs in their last 4 games and the Rockies have had a pair of 10 run efforts in their last five. Neither of these bullpens can hold a lead. The Rockies are last in bullpen stats and the Nationals aren’t far behind. The total is high, but I am all over the OVER on Thursday |
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05-04-22 | Mavs +6.5 v. Suns | Top | 109-129 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 36 m | Show |
The Mavs have now lost nine straight times to the Suns following a rather dismal performance in Game 1 where they lost 121-114 as 5.5-point underdogs. While the ATS result came down the wire, that final score really isn’t indicative of how the game actually went. Dallas was down double digits most of the way. Luka Doncic did his part for the Mavericks in Game 1, turning in a 45-12-8 game. But the rest of the starters combined for just 39 points. Both Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie finished well below their respective scoring averages in Game 1. I’m expecting both to play better tonight. For Phoenix, Devin Booker still seems hobbled by a hamstring injury. He’s shot just 12 of 32 in the two games since returning. Defensively, the Mavs have been one of the top teams in the NBA this year. They allow only 104.5 points per game and kept Utah, one of the league’s most efficient offenses, to only 99 points per game. Doncic has only played two of the four games against Phoenix this year. I think the Mavs’ three-point shooting keeps them in this game and I would not rule out an upset here. Grab those points. |
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05-04-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 207 | Top | 103-119 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
These teams combined to shoot 21 percent from three in Game 1. They were 15 of 70. Miami, the top three-point shooting team in the league, was 9 of 36, well below their season average of 37.6 percent. Philadelphia was even worse, making only 6 of 34 (17.6%). You have to figure we’re getting better three-point shooting in Game 2. James Harden, who is expected to carry the scoring load with Joel Embiid still out, finished with only 16 points in Game 1. But it wasn’t just him that undeperformed. The 76ers’ bench chipped in only 21 points total and 10 of them came from Furkan Korkmaz. The reserves were a combined 1 of 12 on three point tries. Across the board, the Sixers should be more efficient on offense tonight. That means even if Tobias Harris can’t match his 27 point Game 1 effort, we’re in good shape on this side with the Over. Miami will obviously be better from three-point range as well and Jimmy Butler should bounce back from a 15-point Game 1 where he was just 5 of 16 shooting. Philadelphia is 13-7 Over after scoring less than 100 points or less. They are also 6-1 to the Over following an ATS loss. Until the Sixers fell apart offensively in the last quarter and a half, Game 1 seemed like it might be headed Over. Game 2 promises to be higher scoring and WILL go Over. |
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05-04-22 | Bruins v. Hurricanes -107 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
BRUINS/'CANES: NHL BEST BET! |
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05-04-22 | Braves v. Mets -126 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -126 | 6 h 26 m | Show |
The Braves are not off to a great start. Their offense has not been dominant at all, noticeable for just home runs and strikeouts. They have struggled on the road, and against right-handed pitching to date. They face a very good right-hander in the Mets’ MeGill (5 starts, 1.93 ERA). He gave up 4 runs in 6 innings in his worst start, but has otherwise been excellent. He is holding opposing batters to a .186 BA, with just 6 walks. Anderson starts for the Braves. He struggled early in the season but has bounced back nicely since. Control has sometimes been an issue, with 11 walks to 17 strikouts. Both pens have performed adequately, so no advantage goes to either team. Where the Mets are showing better is on offense. They are top of the pack in average with very good power. They have also been solid at home and vs. right-handers. The Mets are a small favorite, and my pick to win on Wednesday. |
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05-03-22 | Predators v. Avalanche -1.5 | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show | |
Nashville was lucky to make the play-offs and will be without goaltending stalwart Saros in net. They are unimpressive on the road and lost to just about every good team they faced down the stretch. Yes, they beat the Avs, but Colorado has been coasting for a few games, Expect the Avalanche, a dominant force anywhere, to come out in force tonight. Colorado will have something to prove this year. take the Avs -1 1/2. |
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05-03-22 | Bucks v. Celtics -4.5 | Top | 86-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Boston should bounce back in Game 2. They shot 10 of 34 (just 29.4 percent!) from inside the arc in Game 1. That was their lowest shooting percentage on two-point attempts all season. There have been only seven times all year that the Celtics shot below 45 percent from two-point range. Following those poor shooting nights, the team has consistently been able to rediscover its shooting touch, making an average of 55 percent from inside the arc the next game. I think it’s a given that Boston improves offensively for Game 2. Defensively, they were #1 in points allowed during the regular season. They held Milwaukee to 101 points on 41.1% shooting in Game 1 and I think they are capable of doing the same again tonight. Just to reiterate what I’ve said so far, the Celtics are 10-5 against the spread this season after being held under 100 points. They are 11-5 ATS off a straight up loss as a favorite. Remember that Milwaukee is missing its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. His production is more difficult to replace on the road. Not sure the Bucks can count on another 25-point performance from Jrue Holiday tonight. They are 1-4 ATS this season after allowing 90 points or less the previous game. Lay the points in Game 2. |
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05-03-22 | Penguins v. Rangers -125 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 46 m | Show |
The Rangers have ruled the roost against the Penguins this season, and while Pittsburgh has all the play-off experience in the world, they don’t have Shesterkin, and they don’t have starting goalie Jarry either. DeSmith could be fine, but is untested in play-off action. New York is very good on home ice, and is much better on the PP. I am on Shesterkin (Mr. Big) and the Rangers today. |
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05-02-22 | Mavs +6 v. Suns | Top | 114-121 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 9 m | Show |
Phoenix, who has the league’s best record, is a big favorite to win this series with Dallas. But it was by no means a dominant first round effort by the Suns. They needed six games to eliminate the 8-seed New Orleans and posted the lowest net efficiency rating of any team that advanced. Some of the subpar performance could be pinned on leading scorer Devin Booker missing most of the series. Booker played in only three games and only once did he log more than 32 minutes. The Suns did win both games Booker finished. But what about Dallas eliminating Utah, despite not having Luka Doncic the first three games? That was more impressive than the Suns without Booker. The Mavericks have covered five in a row and the only game they lost was decided by one point. The Mavs last win over the Suns came in November of 2019. They’ve lost nine in a row to Phoenix since. But recall Milwaukee’s history vs. Boston was not good. Until yesterday when I backed the Bucks. Two of the three games Dallas lost to Phoenix this season, Doncic was out. These teams are more even than you’re being led to believe. Not only does Dallas have Doncic, they have Jalen Brunson, who averaged 27.8 points per game in the first round. Defensively, the Mavs are one of the top teams. They held Utah to 99 points per game. For the year, they are holding opponents to 104.3 points per game. |
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05-02-22 | Blues v. Wild OVER 6 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -120 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
Much as I am a fan of the Wild, meeting the Blues in the first round is not a good fit for them. The Wild have beaten everyone and anyone lately, and limited good teams to low goals-against, but bring in the Blues and defense goes out the window. The Wild have lost the last 5 meetings, dating back to last year. These are two very good offensive teams, 3rd and 5th in the league, and when they play, a high total has been almost a given. Husso will likely start for the Blues, and a little of the shine has rubbed off him as the season ground down. The Wild have two fine options in net. Goaltenders aside, I suspect that both teams will do what they do best, which is score goals. Don’t overlook overtime figuring prominently in this series. I’ll delay picking winners until I have seen at least one game, but I do like the total on Monday. Shop around, then take the over. |
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05-02-22 | 76ers v. Heat OVER 208.5 | Top | 92-106 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 33 m | Show |
This series took a dramatic turn before even getting underway with the announcement that the 76ers’ Joel Embiid would be out indefinitely. It has since been reported that he could return for Games 3 or 4. But we know Embiid will miss Monday’s opener in Miami. Luckily for Philadelphia, they still have James Harden, not to mention Tyrese Maxey, who poured in 38 points the last time the Sixers were in a series opener. In both the first and last game of the Toronto series, the team topped 130 points. They are 4-2 Over the next game, the previous six times they scored 130+ in a game. They are also 8-2 Over when playing with three or more days rest. The loss of Embiid is significant, but I still believe the Sixers will score. Also, this is a low total for Game 1. Lower than the closing number for any game in the Philly-Toronto series or the Miami-Atlanta series. Jimmy Butler will be back for the Heat while Tyler Herro will also play. Kyle Lowry remains out. Miami had scored 110 or more in the first four games of the Atlanta series, before winning 97-94 in Game 5 to close things out. I look at this Game 1 and think both teams can score 105 points rather easily. That is all we need. When the Sixers beat the Heat 113-106 on March 21st, not only did they not have Embiid, but Harden was also out. Go with the OVER. |
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05-02-22 | Angels +117 v. White Sox | Top | 0-3 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
Angels' Lefty starter Sandoval has made a huge jump from last year. In three starts, he is yet to give up a run. He pitched 7 innings of shutout ball in his last start, striking out 9. I wonder if this success is sustainable, but if anything, he has improved each time out, increasing his strikeouts and limiting walks. Dylan Cease starts for the Sox. Cease has not pitched poorly, especially in his first two starts, but he has slipped since then, giving up 6 runs total in his last 2 starts. Walks have been an issue. The Angels' pen is actually outperforming the White Sox' at the moment, and there is no contest in offense. The 15-8 Angels are hitting for average and power with the 2nd best OPA in the league. The slumping White Sox are well down the list, with the 4th worst OPS. The Angels have been very successful on the road. The White Sox are considered a modest favorite. I have my doubts, and so should you. I am willing to back Sandoval over Cease. Take the Angels to win. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies OVER 220 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 52 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY. DISREGARD. |
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05-01-22 | Warriors v. Grizzlies +2.5 | Top | 117-116 | Win | 100 | 17 h 51 m | Show |
Needing all those late game heroics to overcome Minnesota in the first round, Memphis almost seems like it’s being “written off” for Game 1 against Golden State. But the Grizzlies are at home Sunday where they are 8-2 straight up and against the spread as underdogs this season. I say grab the points in Game 1 as the Warriors look like a VERY “public” side. Memphis won three of the four regular season games against Golden State and handed the Warriors their worst loss of the season. That comes with an asterisk though as the Warriors’ 28-point loss here in Memphis came without the services of Curry, Thompson and Green. But that doesn’t mean the Grizzlies won’t win again here. Golden State is only 23-20 on the road where it gives up about six more points per game than they do at home. Also the Warriors might be rusty. They haven’t played since Wednesday. Five Grizzlies averaged double figures in round one and it was not Ja Morant leading the way. It was Desmond Bane, who averaged 23.5 points and made 27 threes. Morant wasn’t far behind with a 21.5 PPG average vs. Minnesota. Memphis is 32-12 at home, winning by almost nine points per game. They are a great value play in Game 1. Grab those points. |
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05-01-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Pirates | Top | 5-2 | Win | 105 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
The Pirates knocked off the Padres on Saturday, winning in extra innings, but I don’t favor their chances for two in a row. Musgrove starts for the Padres, and he has been a paragon of consistency this season, giving up just 6 ER in 25 innings with 2 walks and a strikeout an inning on average. He faces Mitch Keller (6.62 ERA) who has had just 1 quality start in 4 attempts. Opposing batters are hitting close to .300, and he has 7 walks to date. The Pirates’ bullpen has not been much support to date, with a collective ERA of well over 4.00. San Diego’s relievers are just middle of the pack but are still considerably better than the Pirates on average, if not yesterday. The teams are roughly equal in batting avg. but the Padres are hitting for significantly more power, and have been very good (8-4) against right-handers. San Diego has been dominant on the road, especially as a road favorite (6-1!). The Padres are a large favorite on Sunday. Take them on the Run line. San Diego – 1 1/2 |
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05-01-22 | Bucks +4.5 v. Celtics | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs. The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. Shockingly, the Bucks are 0-9 ATS the last nine games vs. the Celtics. But today’s game marks just the second time that the Celtics will have been favored to beat the Bucks. Khris Middleton is a big loss for the Bucks (he’s their second leading scorer), but consider the way Milwaukee played defense in the first round. They posted the best defensive efficiency rating of any team. Giannis Antetokounmpo can still carry this team to victory. For Boston, Jaylen Brown is dealing with an injured hamstring. This is a far more even matchup than what the series odds say. Grab the points in Game 1. |
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05-01-22 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 218 | Top | 101-89 | Win | 100 | 14 h 22 m | Show |
The Celtics were the only team to pull off a sweep in the first round, making it look easy against the Nets. But the Bucks needed only five games to oust the Bulls. It’s not a surprise to see Boston as the favorite to win this series, they do have the home court advantage after all, but it would be a mistake to write off the NBA Champs. The teams split four regular season matchups with the home team winning every time. Only one of the meetings has been since Christmas, so I’m not looking into them too much. The Bucks did win the last one though, earlier this month, 127-121. The Over/Under was a 2-2 split in those four regular season games, but it’s interesting that they averaged 233.3 total points scored. Expect the games in this series to be a lot lower scoring. The Bucks were 5-0 Under in the first round while posting the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs. Remember that Milwaukee is without its second leading scorer Khris Middleton. Wesley Matthews has been starting in his place, but it was Grayson Allen stepping up to average 20+ points in the three games without Middleton. Allen made 11 threes in those three games. I don’t see that happening against a Boston team that defended Kevin Durant so well. On the other side, Jaylen Brown is dealing with a hamstring injury for the Celtics. I look for a low-scoring Game 1. Grab the UNDER. |
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04-30-22 | Cubs v. Brewers -160 | Top | 1-9 | Win | 100 | 11 h 53 m | Show |
The Cubs look great on paper (2nd best offense, great bullpen ERA), but at 3-7L10, they aren't winning many games. Meanwhile the Brewers can't hit, but are still 13-7 for the season. Starting pitching might have something to do with it. Saturday's starter Lauer had a poor opening game, but in his last two has been absolutley lights out, allowing just 1 ER over 12 innings. He had 13 strikeouts in his last start. He is up against the Cubs' Justin Steele (5.40 ERA). Five starts in , he has been going in the wrong direction. His length has decreased and runs-against have shot up. In his last start, he lasted just 3 innings giving up 3 runs, with 4 walks. And while the Cubs have a low reliever ERA, the Brewers already have 11 saves from their bullpen That lofty Cubs offense is skewed. When you score 21 runs in a single game this early in the season, it does wonders for your stats.. The Cubs are not scoring runs against good pitchers, and Lauer is a very good starter. Take the Brewers to win.. |
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04-30-22 | Nationals v. Giants -1.5 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
It is rookie vs. ace in the Nationals/Giants pitching match-up on Saturday. The Nats’ starter Joan Adon (6.98 ERA) has just one good start in four attempts. He has already lost to the Giants in a five run 4 inning outing. I don’t like his chances against Logan Webb and the Giants, even though Webb has not been at his very bet in his last two efforts. He is still sporting a 2.96 ERA. In all likelihood, Webb will bounce back, but with the best bullpen in the league, the Giants can pull a starter at any time comfortably. The Nationals’ pen is not up to the same standard, nor is the Giants' offense. The Nationals are just 6-15 to date and a rough 3-11 against right-handed pitching. You don’t often meet a better righty than Webb. The Giants are solid at home, very good vs right-handers and a considerable favorite on Saturday. Take the Giants on the run line: they are good for the extra runs. SF – 1 ½. |
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04-29-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves OVER 228.5 | Top | 114-106 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
This was expected to be the highest scoring series of the first round with totals in the 230’s. But three of the first five games have stayed Under and oddsmakers have adjusted a bit, posting a total for Game 6 that is 10 points lower than Game 1. Personally, I’ve made just two wagers in this series. I won both. It was Minnesota (+6.5) winning Game 1 outright for me, then I had the Under in Game 3. The Timberwolves should probably be the team with the opportunity to close things out tonight. Honestly, you could make the argument that they could have already won the series. Twice they blew double digit leads in the fourth quarter and lost. The second time was Game 5, which ended up being a two-point loss. Minnesota is better defensively at home, but we are still talking about the two highest scoring teams from the regular season and of the eight first round playoff series, this one is - by far - averaging the highest number of possessions per game. Expect Memphis to shoot much better from three-point range than they did in Game 5 where they were only 25 percent. They’ve scored 111 or more in all but one of the five games. Minnesota is 18-8 to the Over following a straight up loss. |
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04-29-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Royals | Top | 12-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The Yankees, winners of 6 straight are on fire. Their bats have finally woken up, and that bullpen is still lights out. Nestor Cortez starts on Friday. He is arguably the Yank's best pitcher at the moment, with electric stuff (2 ER in 15 innings, 25 strikouts). KC will do well not to be overwhelmed, even at home. Bubic starts, and only one of his first three appearances has been passible. He has given up more than a run an inning and has been wild as well, with more walks than strikeouts. The Royals have neither the firepower nor the relievers to a. outscore the Yankees or b. rescue Bubic. Take the Yankees on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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04-29-22 | Twins +122 v. Rays | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The Twins Dylan Bundy has, quite unexpectedly, pitched as well as anyone in the MLB to date. He is 3-0, with just 1 earned run allowed, 12 strikeouts and 1 walk. One wonders if these stats are sustainable, but they are very impressive for the moment. His opponent, the Rays’ Cory Kluber is a great veteran pitcher who has missed a ton of time to injuries in the last few years. His starts are going in the wrong direction this season. He gave up 4 runs and 11 hits over 5 innings last time out. The Rays, as always seem to have a terrific bullpen that they are not afraid to use. The Twins pen cannot match the Rays’ but may not have to go quite as long. The Twins are on a tear, winning 6 in a row, and their offense has taken an expected jump lately. The Twins have also been tough on right-handed pitching this season. The Rays are experiencing a bit of a power outage at the moment, with just 20 runs scored over the last 6 games. I have in the past avoided going against the Rays, but I am not sure this year’s team is a match for recent vintages. Take the Twins, the underdog, to win. |
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04-29-22 | Angels +118 v. White Sox | Top | 5-1 | Win | 118 | 8 h 2 m | Show |
The White Sox have been on a long and ugly losing streak, but have their ace on the mound today. Giolito returned from a brief stint on the injury list, and looked fine, lasting just 4 innings, allowing 1 run with 9 strikeouts. He will likely still be on a short leash today. The bullpen was not able able to preserve that start, and has not been very effective, but the real issue for the White Sox has been run support, and it hasn’t improved since the Sox returned home. Chicago managed just 9 runs in 3 games against a poor KC pitching staff in their last series. The Sox face the Angels’ right-hander Noah Syndergaard today. He has pitched to a 2.12 ERA, and lasted into the 6th in every start. The Angels’ starters have not had good support from their relievers in general, but do get plenty of run support. They are top of the heap in OPS and have hit a ton of home runs to date. The Angels have won five straight, have been good on the road ,and tough on right-handed pitching. Syndergaard will likely give them more length than Giolito, and they have the ability to easily outscore the Sox. Take the Angels, a small underdog, to steal this one. |
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04-28-22 | Mavs v. Jazz UNDER 210.5 | Top | 98-96 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
Utah should have Deron Williams for Game 6, but regardless I don’t expect them to play all that well. They’ve been a bit exposed in this series by the Mavericks, who didn’t even have Luka Doncic for the first three games. Do I expect the Jazz to shoot better than 10 percent on three-pointers? That was where they finished in Game 5. Obviously, they’ll shoot better in tonight’s game. But they are averaging less than 100 points in the series. Only one game have they scored more than 104. Dallas hasn’t exactly torn it up offensively either. The last two games have seen them score 102 and 99. The Mavs played at the slowest tempo in the regular season and of the eight first round series, this one has averaged the third fewest number of possessions. Utah has been able to hit better than 32% from three in just one of the five games so far. Mitchell is hurting and no one else seems able to step it up. Another low-scoring game should be in the cards |
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04-28-22 | Suns v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 115-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
The Suns were expected to roll in this series, but now are hoping just to avoid a Game 7. Leading scorer Devin Booker hasn’t played since Game 2. Phoenix has won two of the three games without him and a Game 6 return by Booker is now considered a possibility. But I like the Pelicans at home in this one. The old trusty zig-zag theory has played out according to script in this series. Neither team has been able to cover two in a row. If that pattern holds, then New Orleans will likely force a Game 7 (they are short underdogs). The last game in New Orleans was won by the Pelicans 118-103. The Pels were then betrayed by three-point shooting in Game 5, making only 5 of 25 attempts. They’ll be far better than that in tonight’s game. CJ McCollum was 1 for 8 from distance in Game 5 and 3 for 17 the last two games. I expect him to start making shots at a higher percentage here. The Suns have yet to score more than 114 points in any game during the series. New Orleans is averaging 111.5 at home for the season. If they hit their average, we’re in good shape tonight. Don’t think Mikal Bridges will score 31 again like he did in Game 5. (That was a career playoff high). Booker or no Booker, I don’t like the Suns’ chances here. Take the points. |
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04-28-22 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 209.5 | Top | 132-97 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
When Philadelphia was up 3-0 in this series, it was considered a formality that they’d move on to the second round. After all, no team in NBA history has ever come back from an 0-3 series deficit. But all of a sudden Toronto has won two in a row, to seize momentum, and Joel Embiid is hurt for the Sixers. Embiid, despite playing with a torn ligament in his right thumb, still led the team with 20 points and 11 rebounds. James Harden finishing just 4 of 11 from the field was a problem and Embiid called him out afterwards. Also, Tyrese Maxey (who was the Game 1 hero with 38 points) has seen his scoring decline throughout the series. He’s scored just 23 points combined in the past two games. The Sixers scored only 88 points in Game 5 on 38.3 percent shooting. Expect a far better effort at the offensive end this evening. The team is 6-2 to the Over following its last eight straight up defeats. Toronto and Philly combined to shoot 18 of 68 on three-pointers in the last game. That’s just over 26 percent. For the year, they combined to shoot better than 35 percent. Again, we’ll pick up points in that regard tonight. I know this has been a low scoring series - the last four games have all gone Under - but this number looks too low given what the two sides are capable of doing. Both teams’ games average right around 216 points over the course of the season. Take the OVER. |
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04-28-22 | Guardians +1.5 v. Angels | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -134 | 5 h 14 m | Show |
The Guardians face the home favorite Angels today. Cal Quantrill starts for Cleveland, and was a go-to starter for me last year. He hasn’t pitched poorly this year, but hasn’t quite found the same form as in 2021. I still have hopes for him. He has been delivering solid length. He faces young and promising Angels lefty Reid Detmers, who is sporting a poor 6.57 ERA to date. He has yet to show what is expected of him. The Guardians have the better bullpen at the moment, and while they haven’t the same home run numbers as the Angels, they are hitting for average and power. Take the Guardians to steal or come close today. Cleveland +1 ½. |
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04-28-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -170 | 2 h 18 m | Show |
Down two games in the series, the Tigers send out lefty Tariq Skubal, up against the Twins’ Bailey Ober. The two young pitchers have similar records to date; both with a poor first start, followed by a pair of fine appearances. Skubal has two shut-out starts; Ober has just given up 1 run in his last two appearances. Once the starters are out, there is quite a difference in relief pitching. Detroit’s pen has been surprisingly good, sporting a very skimpy 2.22 ERA. The Twins’ bullpen ERA in fully two runs worse. Looking at the offenses, the Twins are hitting for more power, while the Tigers have the advantage in batting average. The Tigers’ home run numbers are very low. The Twins have won 7 straight, including the pair against Detroit. They have been good at home but also have struggled against left-handed pitching. I like Skubal’s and the Tigers’ chances on Thursday, if not to win then at least to keep it close. Take the Tigers + 1 ½. |
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04-27-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 226 | Top | 98-102 | Win | 100 | 35 h 4 m | Show |
Golden State missed out on its chance to sweep Denver, losing Sunday by a score of 126-121. But the good news is that no team in NBA history has ever blown a 3-0 series lead (Warriors infamously blew a 3-1 series lead in the 2016 NBA Finals) and now they are back home for Game 5 and heavily favored to close out the series. The first four games have all gone Over. The Warriors and Nuggets have combined to average 245.4 points with every game seeing 230 or more points scored. Game 4 was the highest scoring one so far. The total for Game 5 has been set a little higher than the previous games. What I don’t think will happen Wednesday is Denver shooting 56.5 percent again like they did at home in Game 4. The last two games have seen both teams shoot better than 50 percent. I don’t see that happening again either. Golden State is an elite defensive team at home where they give up an average of just 103.3 points per game. The Under is still 25-17 in Warriors’ home games this season. Denver averaged only 106.5 points in the first two games here. So, with their season still on the line, it’s up to Denver defensively. They’ve yet to hold Golden State to less than 118 points, but if they can keep them closer to 111 (what the Nuggets are allowing per game, for the year), then we’ve got a great shot at this one going Under. |
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04-27-22 | Marlins -142 v. Nationals | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
The Nationals are 6-12 to start, poor at home, dead last in team pitching, and struggling on offense with the 24th ranked OPS. Their starter Eric Fedde was a bright spot with a pair of 5 inning 2 run outings but things fell apart in his 3rd start. He gave up 6 runs in 3+ innings. The Nationals are up against Marlins’ hot hand Pablo Lopez. His first two starts were very good, but his third one was an absolute gem (7 innings, 0 runs). Lopez may not need much support, but the Marlins’ bullpen has been very good to date. The Marlins are 3-1 in their last 4 games, and hitting well for average if not for power. Fedde will have to go some way to match Lopez, and the Nationals haven’t had the stuff to win or hold in the late innings. Take the Marlins to steal this one. |
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04-27-22 | Mets -110 v. Cardinals | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
The Mets are in St Louis to face the Cardinals. Up 2-0 in the series, they look to bring out the broom on Wednesday. With Carlos Carrasco starting, it is a distinct possibility. He has been a beast so far with 3 strong starts, the last one going 7+ innings with 2 runs allowed. Carrasco has 20 strikeouts to just 2 walks. Cards pitcher Matz, an ex-Met, will start against his former team. With an ERA over 5, he is still trying to live down that ugly first start, but #2 and 3 were much better. His ex team-mates haven’t done him any favors, and have had good success against him in the past. Both these teams have good support from their relievers this season. St Louis might have the better pen at the moment , but the Mets overall have limited teams to just a .191 batting average. New York is very good on the road this season, and hitting so much better than last year. They are 4th in team batting average and 1st in runs scored. The Cardinals are just mid-pack in OPS. New York is a slight favorite and rightly so. I favor Carrasco slightly over Matz and think the Mets’ offence will win the day. Take the Mets to win outright. |
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04-26-22 | Dodgers -1.5 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -130 | 14 h 54 m | Show |
The Dodgers have great starting pitching to start the season, but none looks much better than Tuesday’s starter Gonsolin. He has given up just 1 run in three starts, pitching to increasing length each outing. He finished 6 innings in his last start. Diamondbacks starter Davies has had mixed results so far, sandwiching two good efforts around a poor 4 inning, 4 run result. The problems for the Diamondbacks will likely begin when the starter comes out. Their bullpen is third worst in the league with a BP ERA more than 2 runs worse than the Dodgers’. The Diamondbacks are no match for the Dodgers on offense either, with a team batting average of just .189 to date. The Dodgers are strong in average and power, and are also holding the opposing teams to a slim .191 batting average. LA is a solid favorite, but should be good for the extra runs. Take the Dodgers at -1 ½.. |
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04-26-22 | Orioles v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 8-12 | Loss | -125 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The O’s face the Yankees in the confines of Yankee Stadium on Tuesday. The Orioles took their home series from the Yankees on the backs of their pitchers. Today’s starter Jordan Lyles held NY to just 1 run over 5 innings in his second start. He was roughed up in his first outing of the year, but his last two have been excellent. The O’s are also getting very good results from their bullpen, with a collective ERA of just 2.75. Of note, the Orioles have 3 shutouts to date. Severino starts for NY. After 2 lost seasons due to injury, Severino appears healthy and the stats reflect this. In his 2nd and 3rd start, he lasted 10 innings total, allowing just a single run. The Yankees’ bullpen has been most impressive, with a very sharp ERA of 2.44, good for 4th in the league. While the Yankees are not hitting for average (.235 ERA), their power figures are acceptable, although more is expected from Yankees’ bats. They have been a solid 7-3 at home this year. The Orioles are poor on the road so far (3-7) and also poor vs right-handed pitching (3-6). Their offense, as expected, is struggling in a big way, hitting just .211, with a severe power outage, just 44 runs, and 6 home runs to date. These are two fine starters, supported by strong relievers. The Orioles’ offense is out and out poor, and the Yankees’ bats have yet to fully come around. The total is on the high side. I am a big fan of the under today |
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04-26-22 | Hawks v. Heat -7 | Top | 94-97 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
After completely destroying the Hawks in Game 4, 110-86, the Heat have a chance to close out this series at home. All three of Miami’s wins in this series have been by double digits while Atlanta’s lone triumph was by a single point after a Trae Young game winner. The Heat probably should have swept this series. Look for them to close things out tonight. Atlanta just isn’t any good defensively. They are allowing 112.5 points per game in the series, which I guess is not all that surprising as they allowed 112.4 in the regular season and came into the playoffs with the worst defensive efficiency rating of all remaining teams. It hasn’t helped that Young has struggled mightily. He’s averaging just 16.5 points per game while shooting 32.1 percent from the field and 20.8 percent from three. He was held to just nine points on 3 of 11 shooting in Game 4 and he attempted just one free throw as 10 of his 11 shots were launched from behind the arc. Young and the Hawks have now been held under 100 points in two of the four games. Miami clearly knows what it’s doing defensively and Atlanta has no game plan to solve it. The Hawks are 0-42 ATS in their straight up losses this season, including 0-23 as underdogs! They are 6-20 ATS as road underdogs. Series over. |
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04-25-22 | Jazz v. Mavs OVER 212.5 | Top | 77-102 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 9 m | Show |
Even with an abundance of free throw attempts, Game 4 still saw only 199 total points scored. Part of the problem was that the Jazz missed 16 of their 42 attempts from the charity stripe. Playing on the road in Game 5, Utah won’t be getting to the FT line with such regularity tonight. But I do expect them to start sinking more threes. Games 2 and 3 of this series did make it Over the total with Game 3 being the highest-scoring, finishing with 244 total points. Luka Doncic finally suited up for Dallas in Game 4 and while he scored 30, only one other Mavs player had more than 11 and the team ended up with just 99. Both teams should increase their scoring tonight. It’s been especially strange to see Utah fail to hit its season average of 113.2 points in three of the four games. They are attempting a lot less three-point tries, but I imagine we’ll see a change there for Game 5. Utah shot only 30 percent from three in the two games at home, well below their season average. Neither team shot better than 43% overall in Game 4. Again, you’ve got to think we’ll see better shot-making this evening. The Over has been a winning bet five of the last six times that Dallas has been favored. They are favored tonight (first time in the series). The Mavs have attempted 42 or more threes each of the last three games. That volume coupled with the likelihood of improved long-distance shooting by the Jazz has me on the OVER. |
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04-25-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Nets | Top | 116-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Could the Nets really be swept right out the first round? Bet on it! Boston, who many believed could come out of the East if they won this series, is quickly cementing itself as the team to beat in this conference. They are clearly the better team in this series and I will take the points in Game 4. Though both Philadelphia and Golden State failed to sweep their series, teams holding a 3-0 series lead are still on a 29-15 straight run in Game 4’s. There is simply no homecourt advantage for Brooklyn this year as they’ve gone 9-33 ATS at the Barclays Center. While the knee-jerk reaction to that record is to blame the absence of Kyrie Irving for most of those games, the bottom line is the Nets are 1-7 ATS their last eight games here, including the 109-103 loss in Game 3. Kevin Durant is struggling mightily in this series. He’s averaging only 22 points per game on 36.5% shooting. That scoring average would be the lowest in any postseason series in Durant’s entire career. I can’t say that I’m that surprised as Boston is arguably the top defensive team in the NBA. They are even stronger with Robert Williams back. Al Horford is having himself an excellent series. Jayson Tatum is averaging 29.7 points and Jaylen Brown is averaging 22.7 while shooting better than 50 percent. Boston is 14-8 ATS in the underdog role this season. Brooklyn is 17-38 ATS as a favorite. I expect the Celtics to end this series Monday night. |
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04-24-22 | Suns v. Pelicans UNDER 216 | Top | 103-118 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The last two games of this series went Over. But that was with some real hot shooting, from New Orleans in Game 2 (56.7 percent from three!) and then Phoenix in Game 3 (67% from inside the arc). I had the ATS winner of each game, but it’s back to the Under (which I had in Game 1) for Game 4. Devin Booker being out for Phoenix is a big deal. The Suns still scored 114 points without their leading scorer on Friday, but were 4 of 26 on three-point attempts and are going to continue to struggle in that regard. Booker made seven threes (all in the first half) in Game 2. The Over has hit seven straight times when these teams have played in New Orleans. But there were a lot of free throws in Game 3. The Suns and Pelicans combined to make 46 of 58 from the line. Expect a decrease in this area for Game 4. We’ve seen great overall shooting the last two games with both teams hitting over 50 percent from the field. I just don’t think that can continue. I expect the Pelicans to start missing more threes. New Orleans is 15-8 under this season playing with revenge for a home loss. Take the Under. |
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04-24-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 3 m | Show |
Today’s starters appear to be going in opposite directions. Brubaker is still working down his ERA from his first start, but has improved in runs allowed and length in each of the next two. He is off a couple of mostly lost years, but the Pirates have high expectations of him now that he is healthy. He lasted 5 innings, giving up 2 runs, with 6 strikeouts in his third start. Cubs’ lefty Steele started well, with 5 innings of shout-out ball, but has been progressively worse in the following two starts. He gave up 4 runs on 2+ innings last time out. No one likes to lose 21-0, so the Pirates’ response ought to be strong. They are a significant underdog on Sunday, but there are things to like about their chances. Their starter is trending in the right direction, they’ve been good versus left handed pitching, and they have played better on the road this spring. The Cubs are tops in offense right now, but scoring 21 runs in a game will pad the figures. They have been poor vs lefthanded pitching and at home, especially as a home favorite. Take the Pirates + 1 1/2. |
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04-24-22 | Cardinals -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 39 m | Show |
Cardinals long time starter Wainwright has one sub-par start, but the other two were vintage Wainwright. He limited hits and runs in both and struck out 6 per game. He contrasts with Reds rookie Lodolo. He has had mixed results so far in his first season; 12 strikeouts in 2 games, but an inflated ERA and 2 losses as well. Lodolo looks like he has some up-side, but may take a few games to settle in. The faltering Reds are 2-12, 0-3 at home, and were shut-out by the Cards on Saturday. Of note, they are just 1-7 against right-handed pitching. They haven’t scored more than two runs in eight games, and it is unlikely that they will break out against Wainwright. The Cards are off to a very good start with solid starting pitching, a bullpen right up at the top of the heap, and better than average offense from a veteran lineup. Here is an opportunity for the offense to take a rookie pitcher down a couple of pegs. Take the Cardinals to win – 1 ½. |
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04-23-22 | Royals v. Mariners -156 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
KC’s starter Bubic was batted around and never got out of the 1st inning in Start #1. He was much better the second time around, allowing just 1 run, but was wild, giving up 6 walks. Bubic started poorly last year as well before settling down for a very good first month. I expect more of Bubic in his 3rd start. The Royals were off to a very poor start but have turned things around lately, winning 3 of 4. Their bullpen has not been the best, but the real culprit is their offense. They are the bottom of the barrel in both average and power, and have scored just 31 runs this season. The Mariners, off to a better start, also have better offense at this point. They too are poor for average, but have been hitting the long ball. Brash, a young right hander wilth a healthy up-side starts for Seattle. He has started the season with a pair of 5+ inning, 2 run efforts, but also was wild in his second start (6 walks). I favor the Mariners in Saturday’s game. They have been solid at home so far, with the better offense and bull pen. I am betting on another good game from Brash, and a surge from the Mariners' bats in the late innings.. Take the Mariners to take this one. |
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04-23-22 | Celtics v. Nets UNDER 223 | Top | 109-103 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
Brooklyn finds itself down 0-2 in this best of seven series and while they are now at home, the Nets’ ATS record at the Barclays Center this season (9-32) leaves a lot to be desired. It is in fact the worst home ATS record in the NBA. So I’m not interested in playing them in Game 3. Games 1 and 2 both finished close to the oddsmakers’ total. Game 1 just went Over while Game 2 just stayed Under. I think Game 3 is likely to be the lowest scoring game of the series. Boston is one of the best defensive teams in the NBA and on the road, they give up an average of just 105.2 points per game. Brooklyn is 4-0 Under when trailing in a playoff series. The Nets have actually shot better from the field than have the Celtics so far, 51.3% to 47.7%. I do not believe the Nets can stay over 50% against the defensive-minded Celtics. On the flip side, the Celtics won’t shoot as well as they did in Game 2 when they finished at 52.0%. Brooklyn is shooting 46% from three in the series, which will be a difficult percentage to maintain. The Under is 21-8 in Brooklyn home games when the total is 220 points or higher. Take the UNDER. |
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04-23-22 | Mavs v. Jazz -5.5 | Top | 99-100 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Jazz ought to be embarrassed here as they are down two games to one in this series, despite Luka Doncic having not played a single minute for the Mavericks. Doncic says he’s feeling “no pain” in his calf and thus his status has been upgraded to questionable for Game 4. Either way, I like Utah minus the points in this one. Perhaps the Jazz got overconfident when it was announced that Doncic would miss Game 3. They were down 17 at halftime and while it turned into a close game in the fourth quarter, Utah still lost by eight points. This despite shooting 56.5% overall from the field and going 31 of 33 from the free throw line! The big difference in Game 3 was Utah shooting 9 of 28 from three while Dallas was 18 of 42. Making twice as many three as your opponent is a big deal and is a discrepancy that certainly isn’t likely to be repeated here in Game 4. I also can’t see Jalen Brunson continuing his run, whether Doncic returns or not, as Brunson has averaged 36 points the last two games. Utah is an outstanding team at home where it has outscored its opponents by 9.4 points per game this year. Only Golden State has beaten its visitors by a wider margin over the course of 2021-22. This is a must win game for the Jazz. Whether or not Doncic returns for Dallas, look for the Jazz to cover the spread. |
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04-23-22 | Blue Jays v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 49 m | Show |
The Blue Jays meet the Astros for the second game of the series in Houston. Astros starter Urquidy was shelled the first time out, but was much more as expected in his second. He will have to pitch very well on Saturday to match the Jays’ starter Manoah, who has been dominant in his first two starts, pitching for length early in the season. Both teams have at least 1 big bat down. The Astros hitters have not found their form yet. Their team batting average is sub.200, and the runs just aren’t coming. The Jays have the edge on offense at the moment, but if he is on form, Urquidy is tough to take advantage of. The Astros have the better bullpen, but the Jays’ closer has won 8 straight. The total for this game is high, but it doesn’t reflect the quality of the starters or relievers. The Astros in particular have not lived up to their reputation on offense to date. Take this game to go Under. |
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04-23-22 | Islanders v. Sabres OVER 5.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 2 h 38 m | Show |
The Sabres can be counted on for goals, for and against. 9 of their last 10 games have gone over today’s total. Their scoring has been explosive. They are far over their season’s average of 2.8 goals a game, however their defense is 25th rated. The Islanders are known for defense and goal-tending, but 5 of their last 7 games have also have been on or over today’s total. The last game between these two teams resulted in 9 goals. The Sabres are hot, winning 4 of 5 games. They are a young team who are enjoying putting things together at this point in the season. Watch the Sabres drive today’s total up and over. |
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04-22-22 | Suns -1 v. Pelicans | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 14 h 25 m | Show |
Even without Devin Booker, I expect the Suns to beat the Pelicans in Game 3. They outscored opponents by 7.6 points per 100 possessions without Booker when Chris Paul was on the court. Look for Cameron Payne to step it up in Booker’s absence as well. In Game 2, New Orleans took full advantage of Booker leaving, springing a 125-114 upset. They shot the lights out, making 17 of their 30 three-point tries and finishing at 54% overall from the field. Even though they are now back at home, don’t look for the Pelicans to match their Game 2 shooting. It is important to note that Phoenix is 14-3 against the spread this season when seeking revenge for a loss. They are 63-34 in that situation the previous three seasons. The Suns are simply the better team here, having won 63 games in the regular season. Booker missed 14 regular season games. The team has the second highest defensive efficiency rating on the road and can claim a 13-3 ATS mark when the spread is three points or less, in either direction. Coming off its best three-point shooting night of the entire season, there’s no way that New Orleans doesn’t regress offensively here. It would be a shock to see the Pelicans win this series, so I’m playing this one accordingly. |
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04-22-22 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 221 | Top | 110-111 | Push | 0 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
After Game 1 easily stayed Under, Game 2 finished right at the number and your result on the O/U may vary. Miami scored 115 in both games while Atlanta increased its offense from 91 to 105 points in Game 2. Expect the Hawks to increase their number of points scored again here in Game 3. I’m confident in that assessment because they’re now back home, for the first time since scoring 132 in the play-in tournament against Charlotte. For the season, Atlanta is averaging 117 points/game at State Farm Arena. That’s the second highest home average in the league, trailing only Memphis. Also, the Hawks finished the regular season tops in the NBA in number of points scored per possession. Bottom line - this team can score and will tonight. The problem for the Hawks comes on the defensive end. They give up 112.2 points/game and have the lowest defensive efficiency rating of any team in the playoffs. Miami’s Jimmy Butler scored 45 points in Game 2. He probably won’t match that number here, but the Heat can easily score 115 as a team again. Six of the Heat’s last eight road games have gone Over. Atlanta is shooting below 30% from three in the series and that number is going to go up tonight. The Hawks have averaged 124.5 points in their last five home games. Take the OVER. |
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04-22-22 | Marlins v. Braves -139 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 40 m | Show |
The Marlins’ starter Trevor Rogers, despite showing so well as a rookie, is off to a poor start: 2 game started, 6+innings total pitched, 12.15 ERA. Sophomore jinx or slow start? Pitching mechanics appear to be involved, so maybe no quick fix? The Braves are starting Kyle Wright for the third time. Wright broke through in the playoffs last year, and followed that success with a fine start in 2022. He has 2 wins, a 1.64 ERA and a ton of strike-outs. The Braves’ bull pen is middling at the moment; advantage goes to the Marlins in relief. While the Braves batters haven’t really found their form, I have more faith in their bats than the Marlins for offense. Wright is coming in to this game full of confidence. Look for him to have another fine outing. I am wagering on Atlanta to win. |
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04-22-22 | Cardinals -117 v. Reds | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
St Louis starter Matz’s ERA still looks ugly; it will take more than a game or two to average out that poor first start. His second start gets top marks, and I think he will carry on well from there. He will match up against the Reds’ young phenom, Hunter Greene. He has started twice this year with mixed results. The positives are: 10+ innings pitched, 13 strikeouts. The negatives: 6 runs given up, of 9 hits total, 3 were home-runs. Greene has the Reds’ last win. They have lost 9 straight times since. They’ve scored just 13 runs in 8 games and in addition to struggling batters, the Reds have a poor bullpen as well. The Cards are off to a fine start with quality starting pitching, solid hitting, and a very hot catcher. They also have the league’s 2nd best bullpen ERA. I think the Reds’ third win will have to wait a while. Take the Cards, on the road, to win. |
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04-21-22 | Warriors v. Nuggets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 118-113 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The first two games of this series both went Over. Game 1 seemed destined to go Under, but the teams combining for a 70-point fourth quarter changed that. Game 2 saw the Warriors turn in a 44-point quarter. Denver has averaged only 106.5 points in the two games, so they are not really getting the job done offensively. Nikola Jokic has yet to make a three (0 for 8). This isn’t too surprising as Golden State is one of the top defensive teams, something they do not get enough credit for. Now the Warriors only average 109.0 points on the road, so expect their scoring to go down tonight. Jordan Poole is enjoying a breakout series as he’s drained 19 of 29 field goal attempts, which includes a sick 10 of 17 from three point range. No longer shooting at home, Poole can’t continue those numbers. When playing with exactly two days of rest between games, the Warriors are 8-1 Under this season. They are 22-8 Under in that situation since the beginning of the 2019-20 season. I just think Denver will play better defensively tonight. Golden State is 5-2 Under its last seven trips here. |
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04-21-22 | Maple Leafs +108 v. Lightning | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
The Leafs are hot, the Lightning are not. Goal-tending has been an issue for the Leafs, but Campbell has been sharp lately, and the defense looks to have tightened up with their deadline addition. They still have that dominant and potent offense we have seen all season. The Lightning are struggling and goal-tending, usually a huge plus, has not been up to snuff recently. It is not as if this game doesn’t mean anything for Tampa; they could very well play themselves into a wild card spot with a loss. The Leafs pummeled the Lighting in April and Tampa has not won against a top team in 10 games. The Leafs are good on the road, and a small underdog today. The Lightning have given up 11 goals in 3 games, abnormal considering their opponents. The Leafs are not a team to engage in a goal-fest. Take Toronto to steal this one. |
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04-21-22 | Grizzlies v. Wolves UNDER 236.5 | Top | 104-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
Despite Game 2 finishing well below the total, the O/U line remains high here for Memphis-Minnesota Game 3. It’s not nearly as high as it was for Game 2, but considering the Under hit by 20 points in that last game, I’m not sweating it. Plus I don’t think oddsmakers have properly adjusted for the series moving to Minnesota. Timberwolves’ road games have averaged 236.5 total points this season, which would certainly seem to justify the high totals we saw in Games 1 and 2. (Game 1 did go Over, by the way). But Timberwolves’ home games have averaged only 221.6 total points this season. That is a striking split. That split is clearly reflected in the O/U results. T’wolves road games are 31-12 to the Over. At home, it’s 21-20-1 Under. The big difference is on the defensive end where Minnesota allows 10 fewer points per game at home than what they give up on the road. Their own scoring also declines by about five points per game. Memphis is 8-2 to the Under in road games when the total is 230 or higher. The number is just too high. |
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04-21-22 | Giants v. Mets -130 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
Carrasco starts for the Mets. 2021 was a lost year for him, and he didn’t show well in the spring, but was lights out in his first two starts, lasting 5 + innings in each game and giving up only one run in total. The Mets and Giants are presently 1st and 2nd in both team and relief pitching this year, so no real advantage there, however the Mets’ rebuilt offense is playing significantly better than the Giants’ so far. Off a loss, but ahead in the series 2-1, I like Carrasco and the Mets’ chances on Thursday. They are playing at home and are hitting for power and average at the moment. Descianfani has yet to prove himself this spring. It could be close, but take the Mets to win. |
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04-21-22 | White Sox -133 v. Guardians | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -133 | 3 h 57 m | Show |
White Sox starter Dylan Cease broke out last year, was great in the spring, and has been equally strong in his first two starts. He has a pair of 5 inning, 1 run, 8 strikeout victories to date. He is up against the Guardians’ Zack Plesac. Plesac’s first start was a 5 inning gem but he gave up a couple of runs on home runs in his second. Oddly, Plesac also faced the White Sox in his third start last year, and was roughed up. The Guardians are just about “top of the bops” this year, leading in RBIs. The White Sox are down the list at 25th. Where the Sox have the edge is in the bullpen, with lower ERA and 5 saves to the Guardians’ one. Off a pair of losses to Cleveland, look for the Sox to work extra hard to avoid the sweep. While both bullpens have bee successful in the first two games, I like the Sox’ ability to finish. Count on Cease to move the dial back towards win. Take the Sox to rebound. |
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04-20-22 | 76ers v. Raptors OVER 216 | Top | 104-101 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
Philadelphia is up 2-0 in the series, but now it shifts to Toronto where the Raptors hope a change of scenery leads to better results. They’ve dropped the first two games by scores of 131-111 and 112-97. Game 1 went Over while Game 2 went Under.
The 76ers have become a much more dominant offensive team since acquiring James Harden, which is not all that surprising. They played eight games in April and the fewest number of points scored in any of them was 112. It’s not just Harden and Joel Embiid either; don’t forget Tyrese Maxey going for a team-high 38 points in Game 1.
For the series, Philly is shooting 51.7% overall, 48% from three and 86% from the line. Can they continue these percentages on the road? Maybe not, but I still expect them to score more than 112 points in this game.
Despite potentially being short-handed again, Toronto should shoot better here than they did in Game 2. We know Thaddeus Young will be back while the statuses of Scottie Barnes and Gary Trent Jr remain up in the air. The Over is 24-16 in Raptors’ home games. They average 111 points per game themselves at home. The 76ers are 16-5-3 Over in their previous 24 games as a road favorite. As an away favorite, the team’s games average 223.6 points per game. Prior to Game 2, the Sixers’ previous five games had all gone Over. |
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04-20-22 | Braves v. Dodgers -120 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 31 m | Show |
Ageless Charlie Morton looked good in the spring and in his first start, but blew a tire in the second. An off game? Probably, but worth noting. The 5-7 Braves’ start has been just OK to date, and as one would expect, that goes for their hitting, and bull pen. They are on the road and up against the 8-2 Dodgers, a hot team with a definite chip on their collective shoulder. Gonsolin starts for LA, also up to start #3; He was good in his first start, and even better in his second. He hasn’t pitched many innings to date, but he does have that fine Dodgers’ bullpen to back him up. The Dodgers are at home, outhitting the Braves, have better relievers and will be super-motivated . They ran into a tough pitcher in Max Fried on Tuesday, and will be wanting payback. Take Gonsolin and the Dodgers in this one. |
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04-20-22 | White Sox v. Guardians -130 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
The White Sox have started strongly despite the loss of three top pitchers. After the day’s delay Keuchel will start the first half of a double header for the Sox. Keuchel was steady in his first start, lasting five innings, giving up 3 runs, with 5 strikeouts. He had a rough 2021, but is only a year away from a very good season. The Sox’ pitching has been solid in relief, but their offense is just low to mid-pack so far. Keuchel is up against the Guardians’ ace Shane Bieber. Two starts in, Bieber has impressed, lasting 10 innings and giving up just 3 runs. Cleveland started well, but was just swept by the Giants, so it will be up to Bieber to adjust the dial back to WIN. The Guardians offense is 3rd ranked at the moment. Cleveland’s bats didn’t show well against the Giants’ fine starters, but have more of a chance vs. Keuchel on Tuesday. Take Bieber and the Guardians to win. |
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04-19-22 | Pelicans +10 v. Suns | Top | 125-114 | Win | 100 | 15 h 5 m | Show |
The Suns did nothing in Game 1 to dissuade you from thinking they are the best team in the league. They jumped all over the Pelicans, taking a 28-16 lead after the first quarter and never looking back after that. They led by 19 at halftime and ended up winning 110-99, just barely covering the 10-point spread. Remember that New Orleans had to win twice just to get here, so they were at a severe disadvantage heading into the first game. But that disadvantage no longer exists for Game 2 and I’m liking the Pelicans to at least cover the spread in tonight’s matchup. While Phoenix is 24-3 straight up this season as a favorite of eight points or more, they are only 14-13 against the spread. New Orleans shot especially poorly from two-point range in Game 1. They made only 27 of 72 attempts inside the arc, which is 37.5%, a very low number. Expect them to be more efficient there tonight. Eight missed free throws in Game 1 didn’t help the Pelicans either. Despite digging themselves into such an early hole, the Pelicans found themselves down only six in the fourth quarter. I don’t expect them to fall into that kind of an early hole again in Game 2. Take the points here as New Orleans is 5-1 ATS following its previous six SU losses. |
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04-19-22 | Bruins v. Blues -122 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -122 | 9 h 36 m | Show |
The ‘not so bad” Bruins are just 2-4 in recent games, and have some key injuries at the wrong time of the season, including David Pasternak. Not coincidentally, the Bruins offense has been sputtering, scoring just 2 goals in each game of their last 4. Meanwhile, the Blues have been absolutely dominant, beating everyone in sight, and averaging a whopping 5 goals for in their last 10 games. The Blues have found their stride, and are a team no one wants to face in the play-offs. It is likely Swayman vs Husso in net. Advantage to the home team Blues. Take St Louis all the way today. |
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04-19-22 | Giants v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 43 m | Show |
The 7-2 Giants aren’t big on giving up runs, allowing just 7 in their last five games. Alex Cobb is back for his second start, and likely won’t change the “low runs allowed” pattern, if his first start was anything to go by. The road Giants take on the Mets, another team off to a fine start. One reason the Mets are flourishing is the fine start from Tylor Megill, who did not give up a run in his first two starts. He was equally fine in the spring. Here is a fine opportunity for early total. The Mets are right behind the Giants for fewest runs against. Both pitchers are have been tough on the opposition and will likely go at least 5 innings. Take the under. |
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04-18-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 222.5 | Top | 106-126 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
Game 1 of this series went Over, but only because the teams combined for 70 points in the fourth quarter. The entire way, the series seemed to be on a trajectory to stay Under and even with the ridiculous amount of scoring that we saw in the fourth quarter, it only made it Over by a handful of points. Will Jordan Poole score 30 points again, as he did in his playoff debut Saturday night? Probably not! Don’t forget that in the regular season Golden State gave up the fewest number of points per 100 possessions in the entire league. So Denver, who is playing without Jamal Murray and Michael Porter, should be kept in check again. Nikola Jokic can’t do it all himself against this Warriors team. Line movement suggests that Under is the “sharp” play for Game 2. I think that both teams are headed for some offensive regression and the Nuggets should play better defensively with a game under their belts. Steph Curry is still working back into shape. That and Poole’s regression tell me Under is the right call tonight. |
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04-18-22 | Reds v. Padres -160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 31 m | Show |
The 2-8 Reds are presently sitting 29th and 30th in team pitching and hitting respectively. The Padres aren’t off to the best of starts but are mid-pack or better in the same categories. Padres starter and recent pick-up Sean Manea has two starts under his belt. One was very good and the other was remarkable; 7 innings of shutout ball. He faces promising Reds youngster Nick Lodolo, who bombed in his MLB debut, lasting 4 innings with very mixed results. Lodolo won’t be on a very long leash, which is bad news for the Reds as the relievers have struggled. The Reds are on a sizable losing streak with just one of their eight losses being close. Manaea will likely pitch long if his first two starts are anything to go by, and he is not the starter that a struggling team wants to face. I think the Padres will win this one handily, lighting up the Reds pen if not Lodolo. I am a bit gun-shy of the spread after tanking twice on Sunday. Take the Padres to win. |
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04-18-22 | Jazz v. Mavs OVER 205.5 | Top | 104-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
They started slow, but eventually the Jazz overwhelmed the Luka Doncic-less Mavs and took Game 1 by a score of 99-93. As you can guess from that final score, neither side shot all that well. I’m expecting better shooting tonight and thus a higher-scoring Game 2. Let’s get the big news out of the way first. Doncic is not expected to play in Game 2. This is obviously a horrible break for the Mavs as they try to avoid starting this series by dropping two straight home games. Despite Doncic’s presumed absence, you’ve got to figure that at home the Mavs are going to shoot better than 38.2 percent, which is where they were at in Game 1. They also missed eight free throws and were 9 of 32 on three-point attempts. Donovan Mitchell scored 30 of his team-high 32 points in the second half Saturday. Utah is one of the game’s higher scoring teams at 113.1 points per game, so they too are likely to improve their own shooting. This total is quite low, among the lowest I’ve seen for any NBA matchup all season. It’s THE lowest for any Jazz game in 2021-22 and currently the second lowest for any Mavs’ game. The Over is 7-1 when Utah is leading in a playoff series and I fully expect that trend to continue tonight. This number is just too low. |
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04-17-22 | Pelicans v. Suns UNDER 225 | Top | 99-110 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
New Orleans had to win two play-in games to get here and now must deal with a Suns team that had the league’s best regular season record. In the first play-in game, the Pelicans mostly controlled the Spurs from start to finish, only allowing the game to get close for a brief time in the fourth quarter. There were some wild swings vs. the Clippers with NO taking a 10-point lead into halftime, only to be outscored by 20 in the third quarter. But the Pelicans obviously bounced back in the fourth quarter where they outscored the Clippers (who didn’t have Paul George) 31-17. While New Orleans shot exceptionally well (54.3%) against San Antonio, that game was at home. On the road, they could only 27.3 percent from three vs. the Clippers. Phoenix is one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but their last five regular season contests all went Under. Some of that had to do with the lack of stakes involved (they’d already clinched the top seed), but it would be a mistake to discount the Suns’ defense. Visitors only shoot 43.8% here in Phoenix (for the year). The two times these teams played in Phoenix this year, the Under ended up going 2-0. Since the Suns have been off for awhile (a whole week), they may not be sharp offensively. The Pelicans held the Spurs to 103 points and the Clippers to 101 points. Both of those games stayed Under. The Under is 15-5-1 in their previous 21 road games. |
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04-17-22 | A's v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 6 h 6 m | Show |
33 to 0! Those numbers are the respective ERAs of Sunday’s starters at this point in the season. A’s starter Adam Oller had his MLB debut fall apart after just 1+ innings. Expect better results the second time around, but he will face a very tough Blue Jays lineup off a loss. Young Jays starter Manoah was the real thing last year, and appears to be in good form now if his first start is anything to go by. While the other Jays starters have struggled, Manoah and the bullpen have been solid. Manoah went six innings the first time out, so he may not need that much help. The As have been over-achieving so far this year, and their bats have actually out-paced the Blue Jays to date. Don’t count on this continuing on Sunday. I very much doubt their success against Manoah. Take the Jays –1 1/2 |
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04-17-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
The Yankees are tops in team pitching at the moment. Sundays’ starter Nestor Cortes shut down the potent Blue Jays lineup, giving up just 3 hits in 4+ innings. He is off an eye-opening 2021, and looks to continue this season. Backed by a scorching Yankees bullpen, don’t expect a ton of runs from Orioles’ bats on Sunday. Zimmerman starts for the Orioles. He missed a chunk of time last year, and had a rough spring, but was strong in his first start. The Orioles relief corps can’t match the Yankees bullpen. The 2-5 Orioles’ team batting average is sitting at a buck ninety-nine at the moment, good for 27th in the league. While the Yankees’ offense has not quite hit its stride, it is 12th and climbing, and it really is just a matter of time before a break-out. With their division as tight as it is expected to be, the Yanks can’t afford losses against the Orioles, even at this point in the season. Take New York to win – 1 ½. |
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04-16-22 | Hurricanes v. Avalanche -127 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The 9-1 Av’s are very good anywhere, but have only lost 5 games at home this season. They can and have been beating teams in a variety of ways, but what is perhaps most impressive for such an offensively focused team is that they have held 5 of their last 10 opponents to 2 goals or under. Clearly, Colorado is looking ahead and playing successful post season-style hockey early. Carolina has not looked sharp of late. They are just 5-5 L10, including losses to some low ranked opponents. Their defense has been mostly as good as usual, but there has been no consistency to their offense. This is not the way to approach the playoffs. The Av’s are getting solid goal-tending from Kuemper, and can score on anyone. While the Hurricanes have been a very solid road team this season, I don’t care for their chances against a super hot and focused Av’s side. Take Colorado to win. |
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04-16-22 | Nuggets v. Warriors UNDER 223.5 | Top | 107-123 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The Nuggets and Warriors open their best of seven series Saturday night in San Francisco with the home team pretty heavily favored. Unders dominated the NBA’s Play-In Round, cashing in all six games. We’re bound to have on Over on Saturday, but it won’t be this game. Over their last five contests, Denver scored an average of 123.8 points while also giving up an average of 125.0. That’s clearly more than usual. For the year, Nuggets’ games averaged 223.1 points as they scored 112.7 and allowed 110.4. On the road, both those numbers dipped to 110.7 and 108.4 for a total average 219.1 points per game. Golden State comes into the playoffs on a five-game win streak and will likely have their full complement of players, including Steph Curry, ready to go on Saturday. But after Curry missed so much time (hasn’t played since 3/16), I believe it would be an error to expect a big game from him. The Warriors did end up #1 in defensive efficiency for the regular season, which means they allow the fewest number of points per possession in the league. They allow only 103.1 points per game at home. The Under is 6-2 in the previous eight meetings. The playoffs are upon us and points are harder to come by. Take the Under |
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04-16-22 | Angels -111 v. Rangers | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show |
The Rangers' start has not been promising, and so far, pitching has been the culprit. Hearn, a sometimes-starter last year, gave Texas a quality start, but it lasted just 4 innings. It is what happens after the Rangers starter leaves today that is concerning. The Rangers are last in the league in team pitching so far. The Angels are sitting at .500, with a strong 7th rated offense. Syndergaard starts for the 2nd time. He did his part in his first start witha dominant outing. The Angels' relief has not been terrific, but is at least better than the Rangers, and Old Noah will likely pitch further into the game than Hearn. I am on the side of the good guys today. Take the Angels to win. |
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04-16-22 | Wolves +6.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 130-117 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Minnesota had to win a game in the Play-In Tournament to get here, but I believe they are being undervalued in Game 1 at Memphis. The Timberwolves were very much on par with some of the teams in the West’s top six - like Dallas and Denver - and I expect them to make this a competitive series. I am pretty confident that the Timberwolves will get a better game out of Karl-Anthony Towns than what they got Tuesday vs. the Clippers. Towns played one of the worst games of his career, finishing with 11 points on only three made baskets. He also fouled out. But teammates Edwards (30 points) and Russell (29) bailed KAT out. These teams met four times in the regular season and each won twice. While the home team won all four games, all but one was close and that was a 138-95 win for the Timberwolves. Thanks to that one blowout, Minnesota outscored Memphis in the four games and shot better - both overall and from three. The fact Memphis hasn’t played a meaningful game in quite awhile may have an adverse effect here. Ja Morant has played only one game since March 18th. He was 3 for 20 on three-point attempts in the four games vs. Minnesota this year. The Timberwolves have won and covered all three times this year when they’ve played with three or more days of rest. Memphis did have the second best record in the league and isn’t what I’d call a “public team,” but they are overvalued here. Take the points. |
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04-16-22 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -155 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -155 | 5 h 15 m | Show |
After a lost year in 2021, Carrasco pitched adequately in spring and superbly in his first start. A healthy Carrasco would be a huge plus for the Mets, especially considering their present starter injuries. After a couple of strong seasons, Zac Galen also had a rough time last year, pitching ineffectively around injury sessions. He started late this spring, so call him a question mark early in the season, and don’t expect too many innings from him. The Mets are getting very effective relief and plenty of offense, especially in their last three games. They blew out the Diamondbacks on Friday. While it likely will be a closer game, the weak-hitting D-backs won’t have an easy time against Carrasco. Take the hometown Mets to win outright.. |
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04-15-22 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Clippers | Top | 105-101 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
It’s win or go home for the Pelicans and Clippers tonight on ESPN. The winner of this game will be the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser’s season will come to an end. Home teams have gone 4-0 SU/3-1 ATS so far in the play-in tournament. New Orleans was one of the four winners by beating San Antonio 113-103. They were up by as many as 19 points in the fourth quarter. The Clippers were not as good down the stretch in Minnesota and they lost 109-104. But by virtue of finishing in 8th place, they get a second chance and are the home team for this game. The Pelicans’ top three players all got the job done Wednesday. CJ McCollum, Brandon Ingram and Jonas Valanciunas combined for 81 points on 32 of 56 shooting. I do not think you should look too much into the team’s 37-46 SU record. They are 34-30 since a dreadful 3-16 start and have been a much better team since acquiring McCollum. The Pelicans were 3-1 vs. the Clippers this season with the three wins coming by an average of 18.7 points. Also, Los Angeles is 1-10 ATS this season when playing with exactly two days of rest. Even with the home court advantage, I’m not sure that LA should be favored here. Certainly not by this many points. Take the underdog here as an outright win would not surprise me. Paul George just doesn’t have enough help. |
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04-15-22 | Phillies +104 v. Marlins | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
Phillies starter Zach Eflin didn’t play in 2021, but looks very promising so far after a strong spring and a fine 1st start this season. He is up against Pablo Lopez, who also has started the season well, and has shown improvement each year. Two very good pitchers will likely be effective in the early innings. The difference on Friday lies in the offense. The Phillies are sitting 6th in the MLB at the moment, the Marlins, 29th. The Fish have scored just 9 runs in their last 4 games, losing 3 of them. Look for the underdog Phillies to flex their offensive muscle in the later innings and steal this game. Phillies to win outright. |
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04-15-22 | Diamondbacks v. Mets -1.5 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 50 m | Show |
The Mets have started well with very good pitching and solid hitting so far. The Diamondback's pitching has been OK but hitting has been at a league low. Bassitt was overpowering for the Mets in his first start, lasting 6 innings of shut-out ball. D-backs' pitcher Davies allowed 2 runs with 3 walks but didn't get much support. The Mets' improved offense will help to avoid those low scoring loss as per last year. All 5 of their wins have been by 2 runs or more. The Diamondbacks have scored just 15 runs in 6 games, and it won't get any easier against Bassitt. Take the Mets - 1 1/2. They should be good for the runs. |
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04-14-22 | Cardinals +1.5 v. Brewers | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -155 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
It is Wainwright vs Woodruff in what should be a great pitchers’ duel. Should, depending if Woodruff can recover from his very rough first start. Wainwright was business as usual first time around, continuing to defy age. The Brewers are a significant favorite on Friday, and I can’t see it. St Louis has started well, are at home, has solid pitching and lots of pop. The Brewers have yet to show that they have improved their under-gunned offense. If you want to be cautious, take the Cardinals + 1 ½, but an out and out victory would not surprise me. |
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04-14-22 | Mariners v. White Sox UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
Seattle’s young starter Logan Gilbert, finished 2021 strongly and was terrific in his first start of this season. The question is, will Seattle give him any run support? The Mariner bats have been slow to start this year. The Mariners are up against the White Sox’ inexperienced pitcher Lambert. He started 3 games last year to mixed results, and didn’t pitch much this spring. The White Sox have started the season well, and their offense has been solid, but I think they’ll struggle vs. Gilbert. Between Seattle’s starter and Seattle’s bat, don’t look for a high-scoring game. I’m wagering on the Under |
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04-13-22 | Spurs v. Pelicans UNDER 228 | Top | 103-113 | Win | 100 | 30 h 49 m | Show |
The Spurs and Pelicans do battle on Wednesday with the winner earning the right to face the Clippers-T’wolves loser. That game will determine the 8-seed in the Western Conference. The loser here is eliminated. It wasn’t until late in the season that San Antonio made its move, overtaking the floundering Lakers for the 10th spot. The Spurs finished the regular season at 34-48 SU, but 43-37-2 ATS. They are 9-1-1 ATS over the last 11 games, but have lost the last three straight up. New Orleans was 36-46 SU, but 42-40 ATS. They lost their last two regular season games after winning five of the previous six. I think the total is too high here. Spurs’ games averaged 226.2 points per game this year. Pelicans’ games averaged 219.6. The teams faced off four times in the regular season. Three of them went Under, all with 213 or less total points scored. The Spurs are 6-1 Under their last seven games against a team with a losing record. The Pelicans are 13-5 Under their last 18 games as a home favorite. Take the Under. |
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04-13-22 | Mariners -110 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
The White Sox are off to a solid 3-1 start but will be in tough against the Mariners on Wednesday. Keuchal starts for the Sox in a bit of a pitching mismatch. He is off a rough 2021 campaign and an equally rough spring training. He is up against premier lefty Robbie Ray. Ray started the season just as he left off last year with a dominant 7 inning start in the Mariners’ opener. Seattle started the season well but dropped their last two games. They haven’t scored much yet, but they may not need to with Ray on the mound. The odds are favorable considering the pitching match-up. Take the Mariners to win. |
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04-13-22 | Cubs -113 v. Pirates | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Hendricks and the Cubs knocked off the Brewers on opening day after a fine start from their ace. The Cubs are off to a good start, winning the series against the Brewers, and taking their first game from the Pirates. Pirates starter Zach Thompson also looked good in his first start. Although prone to some wildness, Thompson pitched to a good ERA last year, and showed well in spring. The Pirates did not win for Thompson last year and are not off to a good start this year. They scored a ton of runs against Matz in their sole win, but have been limited to just 3 runs in their other 3 games. The Cubs do tend to win when Hendricks is on the mound. They found enough offense to win 2of 3 against a tough Astros pitching staff. The Cubs are a slight favorite on Wednesday, and rightly so. Take the Cubs to win again vs the Pirates. |
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04-12-22 | Sharks v. Predators -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
After losing 2 straight and still in a playoff race, the Predators will be in “must-win” mode against the Sharks. Nashville is a very good home team, and has beaten the Sharks twice, last time by an 8-0 score. The Sharks are one of the poorest road teams, and have struggled on offense all year, but their defense is also in tough shape in recent games. They have averaged four or more goals against in their last 7 games, losing all 7. Nashville needs a turn-around on offense after a couple of tough opponents, and this is the perfect opportunity. The Stars poor offense plus the recent flood of goals-against equals a Preds’ big win. Take the Predators – 1 ½. |
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04-12-22 | Cavs v. Nets OVER 228 | Top | 108-115 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 37 m | Show |
This is a matchup of a Top 10 team in defensive efficiency (Cleveland) against a Top 10 team in offensive efficiency (Brooklyn). The Nets won three of the four regular season matchups and with Kyrie Irving now a full-time participant, it’s no wonder why the home team is a decided favorite in this play-in scenario. Cleveland slumped badly down the stretch, going 3-8 SU and ATS over its last 11 games. But Brooklyn wasn’t exactly profitable here at home either. They possess the worst home ATS mark in the NBA at 9-31-1. So let’s play the total instead. The Nets have scored a minimum of 110 points in every game they’ve played going back to March 6th. Cleveland’s defensive numbers also seemed to fall off a cliff down the stretch, allowing at least 112 points in six of the last seven games. Over each team’s last five games, both are averaging more total points (scored + allowed) than the total for this game. This is a low total for Brooklyn. They haven’t seen a total below 230 points since March 18th. The last three Nets’ games with a total sub-230 points all went Over. The Over is 11-4 in the Cavs’ previous 15 games. |
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04-11-22 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
Young Phillies starter Suarez did everything asked of him last year and looks like a future star, however he had a very limited spring due to visa issues and may be on a short leash this early in the season. The Phillies did some very necessary work on their disaster of a bull pen, but it remains to be seen if it can be enough of a support for Phillies starters. Offensively, the Phillies have power to spare, so they should be competitive in the NL East. They begin a home series as a favorite against the Mets, the projected leader of their division on Monday. Taijuan Walker starts for New York. Walker was excellent until the All star break, then he fell fast and hard. He too has had a short spring, and may also be limited in innings. While both teams have started well, I still have more faith in the Mets’ bullpen. New York’s rebuilt star-studded offense will give the Phillies a run. Look for the Mets to keep it close. Take New York +1 1/2. |
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04-11-22 | A's v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 13-2 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 25 m | Show |
Monday's A's/Rays matchup pits Blackburn vs. Patino. Blackburn has been a part-time starter with an unheralded career and a high ERA. He has not broken any records this spring. The A's sold the farm and are in fulltime rebuild mode, so any game against the Rays is a bit of a mismatch. If the A's are going to beat the Rays, it won't likely be with Blackburn starting. The Rays are off to a good start to no-one's surprise, due in no small part to their bevy of young tough pitchers. Patino is another promising righty who showed well last year. In limited action, he has performed well this spring. The A's are likely still in shock mode with all of the recent changes. Look for the home-town Rays to wear them out on Monday. Take the Rays - 1 1/2. |
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04-10-22 | Pistons +14.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-118 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The 76ers won Saturday 133-120 against Indiana. Joel Embiid had 41 points and 20 rebounds, the first time this season that any player had a 40-20 game. Embiid all but wrapped up the scoring title and the Sixers are guaranteed home court advantage for their first round playoff series. There’s a chance that by the time this game tips off, the Sixers will be locked into the 4-seed. In order to move up into third, they would not only need to win this game, but have Boston lose earlier in the day to Memphis. If Boston wins that game, then the Sixers are locked into 4th. With the chance the Sixers have nothing to play for, I’ll take my chances here and grab the points. And even if the 3-seed is still a possibility, I don’t think the Sixers will win by enough to cover the spread. There’s a chance that a Pistons’ win might hurt their lottery odds, but I still expect a semblance of pride and professionalism to take place here. "We just want to finish with the right spirit and the right togetherness," Pistons head coach Dwayne Casey said. Detroit has been on some incredible runs at the betting window. They are 18-3 ATS L21 as an underdog and 11-0 ATS L11 road games. Grab the points. |
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04-10-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -1.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The Cardinals had a very strong spring and have rolled it right into the new season against the Pirates They’ve outscored the Pirates 15-2 in their first two games. This is a solid veteran-lead team with much expected of them. Steve Matz starts on Sunday. Matz turned things around last year and put up the best season of his career. He could be a fine pick-up for St. Louis. While he hasn’t had the best of springs, I am looking for him to carry last year’s success into 2022. Bryce Wilson starts for the Pirates. He has struggled in his 6 year career, with a weakness for walks and home runs. He has had high strike-outs this spring, but a very poor ERA. Any success the Pirates have will likely come later in the season as young talent gains experience. Look for the Cardinals to take advantage of a somewhat unformed team in the early stages of the season. Take St Louis – 1 ½. |
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04-10-22 | White Sox v. Tigers +1.5 | Top | 10-1 | Loss | -135 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
The White Sox/Tigers match-up features 2 very fine young pitchers, Kopech for the Sox and Skubal for the Tigers. Skubal pitched a ton of innings for a youngster, and had some very good months in 2021. The Lefty has had a very dominant spring. Kopech spent most of 2021 in the bullpen will just a handful of starts. We will see how he adapts to this new role, but he definitely has the right stuff. He hasn’t shown well this spring. Detroit and Chicago split their first two games. The Tigers have managed to score late and keep things close. The White Sox are a favorite on Sunday, But I am on Skubal and the Tigers. Take Detroit +1 ½. |
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04-09-22 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 221.5 | Top | 100-94 | Win | 100 | 18 h 13 m | Show |
Golden State will have home court advantage in the first round of the playoffs. It’s just a matter if they will end up as the third or fourth seed. The Warriors have won their last three games and covered the last four. Tonight they are in San Antonio to face a Spurs team that is headed for the play-in tournament. The Spurs know that they will be facing the Pelicans in the 9-10 (seed) matchup of the play-in tournament. The next Pelicans win or Spurs loss will mean that game is guaranteed to be in New Orleans. Regardless, the Spurs are facing a situation where they’ll have to win two games next week (likely both on the road) to make the playoffs. Over its last nine games, San Antonio is 7-2 SU and 8-1 ATS. I’m looking at the Under cashing Saturday night. The Spurs have held their last three opponents below 43% shooting from the field. It looks like Klay Thompson, after a 33-point effort against the Lakers, will be given the night off. The Warriors are already without Steph Curry. Even if Thompson were to play, he’s not going 12 of 22 from the field again. The Warriors will go into the playoffs near the top of the league in defensive efficiency. San Antonio has been without leading scorer Dejounte Murray the last few games and he’s questionable for tonight (still recovering from illness) as are several other starters. |
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04-09-22 | Mets -143 v. Nationals | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
The Mets spoiled the party for the Nationals in days 1 and 2. Chris Bassitt starts for NY on Saturday. He was a great pickup and a consistent performer who threw well this spring. The Nationals Adon is a promising youngster with just one game of experience in the bigs from last year. The Verdict on Adon is ‘good stuff but wild”. He has struggled this spring with a very high ERA. The Mets’ new and improved offense has shown up in games 1 and 2, but not so the Nationals'. Look for a strong outing from Bassitt. If Adon’s wildness continues then he won’t last long and the Nats’ bullpen has not shown well this spring. I really like the Mets’ chances for three straight. Take the Mets to win outright. |
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04-09-22 | Panthers v. Predators OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -135 | 16 h 38 m | Show |
The Panthers have won 9 of 10 and it has not been because of their defense. They have shown why they are the league’s top ranked offense, scoring 34 goals in 6 games, well above their season’s average. They have also allowed some big numbers; eighteen goals against in just 4 games. The Preds are barely hanging on to a wild card spot, so this is a must-win. They have been averaging more than 4 goals for in their last 4 games, and have ridden their premier goalie very hard, resulting in a few dips in his usually strong play. Look for lots of shots on Saros, very wide open play, and plenty of goals from both sides. Definitely a play for the over. |
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04-09-22 | Mariners v. Twins -135 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The Twins lost their opener in a pitchers’ duel. They’ll be all in for a win in Game Two. Minnesota rolls out Sonny Gray, a solid veteran pick-up this season. Gray is a workhorse and a better than average starter who has had a limited but solid spring. Seattle sends out Logan Gilbert. He had some very good outings down the stretch last year, but his spring has been rough. Of note, this second year pitcher also started slowly last year. The rest of the Mariners’ pitching staff and the Twins staff have had solid springs. These two teams will likely prove to be evenly matched competitors this season. Gilbert may be the difference on Saturday. The Twins have plenty of potential offense this year. Tomorrow may be the day it starts to show. Take the Twins to get to the Mariners’ starter early and win outright. |
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04-08-22 | Astros v. Angels UNDER 9.5 | Top | 13-6 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 8 m | Show |
Houston has been on a roll this spring, and the success has been on the backs of its pitching staff. The Astros’ offense has, surprisingly, not shown up this spring or, for that matter, in Game 1. Odorizzi has pitched mainly on the sidelines, but pitched well in his one appearance against the Mets. He has been moved up in rotation due to an early injury to McCullers. The Angels have also had a good spring, showing offense and reasonable pitching. Detmers is a surprise starter in game 2, but has great potential and has had a very good spring. I am excited about his stuff and think he will show well against the Astros. The Astros offense will break out sooner or later, but I am banking on it not happening on Friday. The total is relatively high; higher than I think is warranted in this match-up. Take this game to go under the total. |
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04-08-22 | Wild v. Blues OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
The Lightning have lost 3 straight and 6 of 10, and have fallen to a wild card spot. More to the point, they have lost ugly, allowing 15 goals in three games. Vasilevskiy has been a standout for most of the season, but some fatigue may be showing. He has played a ton of hockey this season. The Lightning have seen more overs than unders latLEy. The Lightning may be a good home team, but the Bruins, Friday’s opponent, are formidable on the road. The Bruins are 7-3 and have been scoring in bunches in their last ten games. Now in the top three in their division, it would appear that they also have momentum on their side. They are an underdog on Friday, but I think they will be looking to bounce back off a regrettable loss to the Red Wings. A total of 6 is available. This game will go over. |
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04-08-22 | Knicks v. Wizards | Top | 114-92 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The Wizards and Knicks enter Friday with identical 35-45 straight up records. It’s been a disappointing campaign as both made the playoffs last year. The Knicks have really fallen as they were 4th in the East last season. New York has lost three of four, the only win coming against last place Orlando. They blew a 21-point lead to the Nets on Wednesday and ended up losing that game 110-98, not even covering! Washington also experienced a double digit setback two days ago. They fell 118-103 in Atlanta. Before that though, they’d won three of four and put up 127 or more points in all three wins. I think by virtue of being at home, the Wizards have the edge Friday. This is their last home game of the season, so there should be some motivation to win the final game in front of fans. They are 5-1 ATS following a SU loss, going back to the end of March. The Knicks have covered eight straight times as road underdogs and won their last four road games straight up. But those streaks end tonight. Two of those road wins were Orlando and Detroit. The Knicks (27th in scoring) just won’t be able to match the Wizards (119.8 PPG L5) offensively. |
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04-08-22 | Bruins v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The Lightning have lost 3 straight and 6 of 10, and have fallen to a wild card spot. More to the point, they have lost ugly, allowing 15 goals in three games. Vasilevskiy has been a standout for most of the season, but some fatigue may be showing. He has played a ton of hockey this season. The Lightning have seen more overs than unders latLEy. The Lightning may be a good home team, but the Bruins, Friday’s opponent, are formidable on the road. The Bruins are 7-3 and have been scoring in bunches in their last ten games. Now in the top three in their division, it would appear that they also have momentum on their side. They are an underdog on Friday, but I think they will be looking to bounce back off a regrettable loss to the Red Wings. A total of 6 is available. This game will go over. |
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04-08-22 | White Sox v. Tigers OVER 8 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Tigers face the White Sox in their home opener, a team against which Detroit had some success in 2021, when they split their match-ups. Both teams have been just under .500 in spring training. The Tigers could be classed as up and coming this year. Rodriguez starts for Detroit. The lefty has been a consistent performer in his career and has pitched 17 innings this spring with a reasonable ERA. The Tigers’ pitching staff has shown well so far, although their offense has yet to establish itself. Much more is expected of the White Sox for 2022. Their offense has very good so far, with overall pitching lagging behind. Giolito starts on Friday, and he has had a very good spring. He faced the Tigers twice last year, splitting his appearances with both games going over the total. It would be easy to count the Tigers out against the Sox, but with the Sox' strong batting and weak relief pitching in Spring, I more inclined to take a look at the total. A reasonably low number is available, and with neither starter likely to go long, the bullpens will have some say. Take this game to go over. |
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04-07-22 | Mets -119 v. Nationals | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
The Mets’ top 2 pitchers are on the injury list, leaving Megill as the unexpected season opener. Megill has pitched well this spring, and the rest of the pitching staff has been as good as any team’s in the early going. Corbin starts for the Nationals. His 0.00 ERA for spring training doesn’t quite tell the whole story(unearned runs!) but he has pitched well. Let us not forget the Corbin of last year and the year before. A return to form could be possible, but I will have to see it to believe. The Nationals’ staff ERA has been in the sixes so far this spring. While spring training wins and losses don’t really mean much, the Nationals have struggled, the Mets are at .500. I expect the Mets to lose some of their “low scoring” label of last year, with a very promising power surge expected. The Nationals are still a one trick pony as far as offense goes, and haven’t added significantly. Look for the Mets to start on the right foot and take their opener. |
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04-07-22 | Magic v. Hornets UNDER 228.5 | Top | 101-128 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
Charlotte’s defense hasn’t been good all season, but after the last two games it can only get better. The Hornets gave up 144 to both the Heat and 76ers as those games blew past the total. Tonight, I don’t think the Hornets will be giving up anywhere close to that number of points. "I don't think fatigue is a factor here," Charlotte coach James Borrego said after the latest loss. "There's things obviously we've got to correct." Well coach, facing Orlando should help. The Magic are tied for last in scoring at only 104 points per game. The Magic did put 120 in a win over Cleveland Tuesday. But that was a) at home and b) the most points they’ve scored in a game in over two weeks. The previous two games saw the Magic score only 88 and 89 points. Offensive regression is in the cards for tonight. Tuesday was only the third time all year that Orlando scored 120 or more in a game. The Under is 2-0 off the previous two times. The last time, they followed up by scoring only 90 (and allowing only 85!) The Under is a perfect 8-0 in the Hornets' last eight Thursday night games. |
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