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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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06-23-18 | Sweden v. Germany -208 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 46 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Germany came out and laid an egg in its 1-0 loss to Mexico to open the 2018 World Cup. The Germans were favored to win the tournament only slightly behind power house Brazil. Germany will now put the foot on the gas for the rest of the tournament and it will look to take out its frustrations on Sweden. The Swede’s will be hopeful for an upset of their own, and while they do present a formidable defensive challenge, I still don’t think it’ll be enough against this now angry/frantic German side. The teams: It’s do or die for the defending World Champs. Sweden sits atop Group F right now after taking care of business against South Korea, while Germany sits tied for last after falling flat against the Mexicans. Germany was without the services of Jonas Hector in the opening game because of illness, but the dynamic left-back is expected back in this one. Much more will be expected of Timo Werner though, who haas eight goals in 15 international appearances for the team. Victor Lindelof missed the game against South Korea due to illness, but he’s likely to return here. One other player for the Swedes to keep your eye on for is Marcus Berg, how had eight goals in qualifying. Note that Sweden would need a VAR-awarded penalty to beat the South Koreans though. The pick: Note as well that Germany did have 17 shots on goal in its loss to Mexico, including nine of which were on target. It also held 67 percent of the possession. The Germans ran into some bad luck and a hot goaltender in Guillermo Ochoa. Germany though has won seven straight against Sweden and with its back against the wall here, I look for it to find a way to bounce back with a resounding victory after its opening game shocker. Lay the price. |
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06-23-18 | South Korea v. Mexico UNDER 2.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -182 | 25 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Mexico looked impressive defensively in its colossal 1-0 win over Germany, while South Korea looked pretty feeble in its 1-0 loss to Sweden. The Mexicans can take the lead for good in this group with another win though and while that may in fact occur, I do definitely feel that this matchup/game has the feel of a lower-scoring “chess match,” rather than a high-scoring, wide-open “shootout.” The teams: The Mexicans scored early against the Germans in their opening game upset, and then turned their attention to a more defensive style, a tactic which worked brilliantly. Mexico is expected to put out the exact same line-up here, so it’s hard to imagine the offensively challenged Koreans putting up much of a fight in this one. South Korea was held without a single shot on goal by Sweden. The Korean’s were looking for the Swede’s to make the first mistake, but they simply didn’t make any. South Korean star Heung-min Son looked very average. The Korean’s though did look stout defensively, as Sweden would score its lone goal via a VAR awarded penalty. The pick: The Koreans won’t be going down without a fight and I think they’ll make Mexico work throughout this one. When you add it all up, there’s no question in my mind that this one has “defensive battle” written all over it. Play the “under.” |
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06-23-18 | Tunisia v. Belgium OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Belgium will look to pad its score here as it comes in on a huge run, unbeaten since a 2-0 defeat to Spain back in September 2016. Since then it’s gone 20 straight without suffering a defeat. Belgium managed to make it past Panama in its opener, while Tunisia suffered a late 2-1 loss to England. The teams: Belgium currently sits atop Group G after its 3-0 win over Panama. Romelu Lukaku scored twice in the convincing victory and he now has eight over his last six games. Kevin de Bruyne would assist on both of Lukaku’s goals. Wahbi Kharzi will be expected to do a lot more for Tunisia today. Kharzi, a striker at Rennes, has the quality to make an impact in this one though. Ferjani Sassi would net the lone goal in the crushing loss to England. The pick: It’s all or nothing for Tunisia obviously, as it comes in without a victory over its last four matches. Lukaku though plays very similar to England’s Harry Kane, who had two goals in the win over Tunisia. This one has the feel of a wide open “track meet,” rather than a slower-paced “chess match.” Play the over. |
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06-22-18 | Royals v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: A few years ago, Danny Duffy and Dallas Keuchel were the two hottest hurlers on the planet. Oh how the times have changed. That said, each has the track record and pedigree to turn things around in 2018 and I think we’re in store for a bit of a “duel” on Friday night. The pitchers: Duffy is so far 3-7 with a 5.55 ERA. Duffy will be eager to reverse his fortunes here after getting shelled for seven runs off seven hits and three walks over six innings while striking out five against the Astros on Saturday. Across 15 starts Duffy owns a 1.55 WHIP and a 69:40 K/BB. Also note that he’s 2-1 with a 4.24 ERA in all “night” games. Keuchel is so far 4-8 with a 4.15 ERA. Keuchel comes in off a strong outing against the Royals on Saturday, giving up two unearned runs off six hits with one walk over six innings while striking out five and winning his first game since mid May. To go along with his sub-par 4.15 ERA, Keuchel also sports a 71:23 K/BB. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 33 on the road this year, while Houston has seen the total go “under” in eight of ten as a home favorite in the -250 to -330 range. I look for these two determined starters to battle deep. Play the “under.” |
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06-22-18 | Rangers v. Twins -121 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -121 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Minnesota will be eager to bounce back here after its listless 9-2 loss at home to Boston last night. Texas will hand the ball to Mike Minor, while the Twins go with Fernando Romero (3-2, 4.17 ERA.) The pitchers: Minor is so far 4-4 with a 5.35 ERA. Minor most recently allowed two runs off five hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Saturday. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Minor this season, as he has only four quality outings so far in 2018. Also note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with an 8.14 ERA on the road. Romero is so far 3-2 with a 4.17 ERA. Romero most recently allowed three runs off six hits with a walk over four innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Saturday. Note though that the rookie has been at his best at home this year, going 2-0 with a 2.91 ERA to this point. The pick: I think Minor’s inconsistencies on the road continue here, while recent form displayed by Romero suggests that he’s in line for another productive evening in front of the home town crowd. Play on the Twins. |
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06-22-18 | Sparks -3.5 v. Wings | Top | 72-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Sparks are on the road at College Park Center to take on the Dallas Wings in this one. LA is 9-2 so far, good enough for second place in the Western Conference. Dallas is so far 5-5, sitting in fifth in the Western Conference. The teams: LA averages 79.9 PPG and it allows 73.7. Note that the Sparks come in with zero injuries. LA is led by Chelsea Gray with 15.5 PPG, while Nneka Ogwumike averages 16.5 points per night. Dallas averages 82.9 points and it allows 81.0. Note that the Wings have two major injuries as Karima Christmas-Kelly is out for the season with a knee injury, while Theresa Plaisance is out with an ACL tear. Elizabeth Cambage is averaging 19.7 points for Dallas this year. The pick: Dallas has trouble protecting the ball against aggressive defensive teams, turning it over an average of 15.6 times per 100 possessions. And that doesn’t bode well facing the Sparks stingy unit. I think this line should be larger. Play on LA. |
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06-22-18 | Dodgers -145 v. Mets | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Dodgers had the night off last night, while the Mets are off a 6-4 loss in Colorado. I think the well rested visiting side could be a bigger favorite as I look for Alex Wood to out duel New York starter Zach Wheeler on the mound this evening. The pitchers: Wood is so far 2-5 with a 4.22 ERA. Wood comes in off a decent outing against San Francisco on Saturday, giving up one earned run off four hits and two walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings. Wood would throw 58 of is 85 pitches for strikes and I think the southpaw will carry that momentum over here. Note that he owns a 3.72 ERA in all “night” games. Wheeler is so far 2-5 with a 4.82 ERA. Wheeler most recently allowed two earned runs off three hits and two walks while striking out eight over six innings against the Diamondbacks on Sunday. Previous to that though Wheeler had been shelled for six earned runs. The pick: Note as well that the home field advantage has been anything but for Wheeler this season, as he comes in with a poor 0-4, 5.14 ERA record in New York. He’s also just 1-4 with a 5.53 ERA in all “night” games. LA is 17-15 on the road, while the Mets are a terrible 13-21 (-12.5 units) at home. I think Wood offers great value in this matchup. Play on LA. |
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06-22-18 | Winnipeg -3 v. Montreal | Top | 56-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off Week 1 losses. Winnipeg lost a 33-30 heartbreaker at home to the Edmonton Eskimos, while Montreal had a predictable letdown in BC. The Bombers lost their starting QB in the final preseason tune-up, but their backup played well and I think he’ll carry that progression over here. The teams: Winnipeg was forced to start Chris Streveler in Week 1 due to the injury to Matt Nichols. Streveler though posted a respectable first performance with three touchdowns and two interceptions. Darvin Adams and Weston Dressler combined for 120 receiving yards and two touchdowns. RB Andrew Harris had 77 yards on 14 carries, part of 137 total yards on the ground for Winnipeg. The Blue Bombers looked poor on the defensive side, but clearly the team catches a break facing the impotent Al’s offense. Montreal QB Drew Willy had 281 yards, one TD and one INT against the Lions last week. Note though that Willy has one or less touchdown passes in each of his last eight games. Montreal’s ground game stalled as well with just 78 total yards. RB Tyrell Sutton was a bright spot with 65 rushing yards on 15 carries. The Al’s looked decent defensively, allowing 300 yards and 22 points, led by Chris Ackie with six tackles. The prediction: Take it for what you will though, but Winnipeg is 21-8 ATS in its last 29 on the road, while Montreal is just 5-16 ATS in its last 21 at home. Not only that but the Blue Bombers are 6-1 in their last seven played in Montreal. The Al’s offense is still a major question mark and I have a hard time seeing the unit keeping up with Streveler and company. Lay the points. |
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06-22-18 | Nigeria v. Iceland OVER 2 | Top | 2-0 | Push | 0 | 3 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Nigeria is coming off a disappointing 2-0 loss to Croatia. However, after the Croat’s dominated Argentina 3-0 yesterday, perhaps that opening setback doesn’t look so bad. The Super Eagles will be eager to get untracked here as they look to open up their offensive attack and gain some momentum. Iceland will be looking to take advantage and to grab a full three points here after it went to a historic 1-1 draw with Argentina. And with Argentina now eliminated, Iceland can clinch at least second spot with an outright victory. The teams: Nigeria has now lost four of its last five matches. Expect to see some changes on the field from Nigeria today, as Leicester City striker Kelechi Iheanacho will himself be expected to make an immediate offensive impact. It’s interesting to note that Nigeria actually created more chances that Croatia in its opening game loss, but it managed to only find the target twice. Iceland will be attacking today. Keep your eyes on Gylfi Sigurdsson, who has scored more goals than anyone currently on the squad. Alfred Finnbogaso scored the lone goal against Argentina. The pick: As great as Iceland’s draw was with Argentina, it simply won’t mean as much if it can’t back it up with a three-point win here. Iceland has in fact not won in five matches, as it’s draw with Argentina was it’s second straight. With both teams desperate for a victory and each looking to push the pace from start to finish, the correct call is the “over” in my opinion. |
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06-21-18 | Padres v. Giants UNDER 7.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which can struggle to put runs on the board at times square off against a couple of capable starters. In my opinion, this one sets up as a classic “duel.” The Padres go with Tyson Ross, while the Giants go with Madison Bumgarner. The pitchers: Ross is so far 5-4 with a 3.51 ERA. Ross comes in off a difficult loss to the Braves on Thursday, giving up three runs off three hits while striking out four over six frames. Ross’s velocity was up on his fast-ball to over 91 MPH and he’ll now look to improve upon his respectable 3-2, 3.11 ERA night record. Bumgarner is so far 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed three runs off five hits with four walks while striking out three over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Bumgarner continues to try and work himself back into game shape, but he certainly has the track record and pedigree to get things turned around quickly. The pick: The Padres have struggled on the road this year with a 16-19 record. They’ve also struggled to plate runs away from friendly confines, having seen the total go 11-23 on the road. Bumgarner faces the perfect opponent to get back on track, while I also expect Ross to continue his steady progression. Add it all up and this one has “under” written all over it. |
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06-21-18 | Saskatchewan v. Ottawa OVER 50 | Top | 17-40 | Win | 100 | 20 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Roughriders will hope to open the season with a 2-0 record after beating the Toronto Argonauts handily in Week 1. Ottawa will have different plans obviously as it kicks off its 2018 campaign The teams: Saskatchewan has won four straight on the road dating to last year. QB Zach Collaros had 203 yards and a TD last week, to go along with zero INT’s. Duron Carter and Caleb Holley combined for 83 receiving yards. Jerome Messam though leads a strong running attack which posted 111 yards last week. The Redblacks were 8-9-1 last year, but they’ll be looking to improve those numbers with QB Trevor Harris, who helped his team finish third in the league in total points scored last season. The pick: It’s a quick turnaround for the Roughriders, who have to travel across the country for this one. Take it for what you will, but Saskatchewan has seen the total go “over” the number in 12 of its last 19 non-conference games. This one has the feel of a wide open “shootout,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.” |
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06-21-18 | Cubs -149 v. Reds | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -149 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs closed out a home set with the Dodgers with a 4-0 win yesterday and I think they’ll carry that momentum over here facing erratic Reds’ starter Matt Harvey. Chicago hands the ball to Kyle Hendricks in this one. The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 5-6 with a 3.55 ERA. Hendricks most recently allowed three earned runs off seven hits and four walks while striking out three over six innings in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. Hendricks enters with a respectable 4-3, 3.79 ERA in all night games this year. Harvey is so far 1-5 with a 5.92 ERA. Harvey most recently gave up three runs off four hits and two walks over five innings while striking out two in a loss to the Pirates on Friday. Harvey was decent, but he’d ultimately come up short again. Harvey now sports the ballooned ERA and note that he owns a 5.63 ERA in all home games. The pick: Chicago is 41-29 overall this year, which includes going 21-15 on the road. Cincinnati is 27-45 this season, including just 12-23 at home. The Cubs are also 115-69 against the division the last three seasons, while the Reds are just 78-105 against divisional foes in the same span. No upset in this one, lay the price. |
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06-21-18 | Croatia v. Argentina +110 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Lionel Messi missed a penalty shot in Argentina’s opening game against Iceland and the South American power house would have to settle for a draw. Croatia though rolled to a 2-0 win over Nigeria, which now clearly puts the pressure on Argentina to find a way to win this one outright, as a draw or a loss here would put it in jeopardy of advancing. The Croat’s looked strong against their African opponent, but I think they’ll come up short here. The teams: Argentina was a runner up in Brazil four years ago and it’s going to be looking to get back on track after its opening lacklustre effort. Messi may have missed the free kick, but overall he had a strong outing with 12 shots on net. Sergio Aguero managed the lone goal. Luka Modic scored for Croatia in its opening win against Nigeria. The Croats have now won three of their last five, but note that they’ve lost their last two against South American opposition, with 2-0 losses to both Brazil and Peru in friendlies. The pick: Messi will be a man on a mission here after taking the full blame for his team’s “draw.” However, you’ll also want to keep your eyes Aguero, who has four goals in his last four games. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. |
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06-21-18 | Peru v. France -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: France comes into its second Group C matchup sitting at the top after it’s 2-1 win over Australia, while Peru can be put out of its misery after it fell 1-0 to Denmark. The teams: The French are expected to field the identical squad after its Game 1 win. Antoine Griezmann scored from the penalty spot against the Aussies and he now has 21 international goals in 55 games. Note that France has now gone unbeaten in its last five matches, winning four of those. Peru is led by Paolo Guerrero, who has scored a national-record 34 goals over 89 appearances. Christian Cueva blasted a penalty well over the bar in his team’s closest chance last time out though, and the disastrous effort would go on to set the tone for the rest of the game. The pick: Peru is tough on the back line, but France has scored 19 goals in its last nine matches. Also note that the French have not lost to a South American team since 1978. Peru was in great form heading into the tournament, but I think it’s Game 1 setback will weigh heavily on its mind again here. Ultimately I look for France’s high-powered attack to prove to be too much for the Peruvian’s to handle. Lay the price. |
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06-20-18 | Mariners +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
\The set-up: The Yanks pulled away for a decisive 7-2 victory in yesterday’s series opener and while the home side may ultimately earn another victory here as well, in a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra innings, I’m going to grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Mariners go with Felix Hernandez, while the Yankees go with Jonathan Loasiga. The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 6-6 with a 5.44 ERA. Hernandez comes in off a strong outing against the Red Sox on Thursday, allowing two earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over seven innings. Hernandez has been strong at home and poor on the road this year, but I’m expecting “The King” to carry over the momentum from his latest outing and challenge his still untested counterpart. Loaisiga is so far 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA. Loaisiga picked up a win in his major league debut against the Rays on Friday, giving up three hits and four walks over five scoreless. It wan impressive showing, but clearly the book is still out on the right-hander. The pick: The future is bright for Loaisiga, but it’s hard to see the rookie duplicating that performance in back-to-back outings. Hernandez has had plenty of struggles, but I think the veteran will at the very least, match Loaisiga inning for inning. Play the Mariners on the run-line. |
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06-20-18 | Braves v. Blue Jays -138 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves took Game 1 of this one 11-4 yesterday, but I think the home side will bounce back with its ace on the mound this afternoon. Atlanta turns to Anibal Sanchez, while the Jays go with JA Happ. The pitchers: Sanchez is so far 3-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Over six starts for Atlanta Sanchez has posted a sharp 32/11 K/W over 37.1 innings. Sanchez was a disaster for the Tigers last season, so it’s hard to trust that he’ll maintain these “lights out” numbers. Happ is so far 8-3 with a 3.48 ERA who went five scoreless against the Rays on Wednesday, giving up one run and three walks over five scoreless on Wednesday. Happ would also strikeout four and he comes into this one sporting an impressive 10.2 K/9 over his 14 starts this season. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs, while Toronto is 8-3 in its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs. I think Sanchez comes back down to Earth and I look for Happ to continue his consistent progression. Lay the price. |
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06-20-18 | Morocco v. Portugal -161 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 141 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Portugal is a heavy favorite over Morocco in this Opening Round game in Group B. Portugal won the 2016 Euros and it’s led by arguably the best player on the planet. Morocco on the other hand ranks 42nd in the World. That said, Morocco also has a fantastic player at its disposal and he will be trying desperately to pull off an upset in this one. The teams: Portugal hasn’t changed much since winning the 2016 Euro. It’s led by Christiano Ronaldo, who comes into the 2018 World Cup on top form. Morocco will be leaning heavily on Hakim Ziyech, who won Dutch Footballer of the Year after a fantastic season with Ajex. The pick: Portugal was in a tight battle with Switzerland for an automatic qualification, but it would in the end come out on top. The North African side is stout on the back end, but it returns to the World Cup for the first time since 1998. This is a tough first match and I think that the Portuguese depth and experience will in the end prove to be too much for the Moroccan’s to overcome. Lay the price with confidence. |
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06-19-18 | Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams can both put runs on the board in a hurry, but I think this one sets up as a classic “duel” in the opener of this three game set. The Red Sox go with ace Chris Sale, while the Twins go with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Sale is so far 6-4 with a 2.75 ERA. Sale comes in off another strong outing against Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up one run off two hits and four walks over six innings while striking out nine in the victory. Sale’s back on track and he’ll now look to improve upon his already impressive 4-2, 2.56 ERA record on the road. Berrios is so far 7-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Berrios received a no-decision in his last start against the Tigers despite allowing only one run with seven strikeouts over six innings. Berrios continues to impress and he’ll also be looking to keep the momentum rolling and improve upon his tiny 0.95 WHIP and fantastic 91:15 K/W over 89.2 frames of work this season (note that Berrios is 5-2 with a 3.12 ERA at home this season as well.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 39 this year on the road, while Minnesota has seen the total go “under” in 18 of 31 at home. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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06-19-18 | Braves v. Blue Jays -102 | Top | 11-4 | Loss | -102 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto is suddenly white hot, winner of seven straight. That includes a three-game sweep of the Nationals over the weekend. Atlanta has exceeded expectations this season, but I think it’ll come up short here against the hungry home side. The Braves go with Mike Soroka in this one, while the Jays go with Jaime Garcia. The pitchers: Soroka is so far 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. Soroka returned for his first start since May 12th to face the Mets on Wednesday and he looked good, going six scoreless with four strikeouts. Soroka has done well so far this season, but I think he’ll have his hands full in this difficult venue. Garcia is so far 2-5 with a 5.71 ERA. Garcia most recently allowed four runs off four hits with four walks while striking out four over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Tuesday. Garcia has been terrible on the road with a 1-4, 8.04 ERA record, but much better at home with a 1-1, 3.00 ERA. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta is already only 19-21 this season following a victory, while Toronto is 6-2 (+5.6 units) in all inter-league games. Great value on the red hot Jays. |
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06-19-18 | Mariners v. Yankees -161 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Two red hot American League sides collide in the opener of this three-game set. Both of these starters have looked brilliant at times and pedestrian in others, but I think that the home field advantage will prove to be the difference in this one. The Mariners go with Marco Gonzalez, while the Yanks go with Domingo German. The pitchers: Gonzalez is so far 7-3 with a 3.42 ERA. Gonzalez comes in off a no-decision against the Angels on Wednesday, allowing three runs off seven hits and two walks over five innings. Gonzalez has been sharp as a starter this year and it’s difficult to say too many negative things about him. I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight. German is so far 1-4 with a 5.23 ERA. German comes in off his best outing of the year and I think he’ll carry that momentum over here. German would give up three runs over six innings while also striking out ten over six innings in the victory over the Rays. The pick: These are two of the best clubs in the AL, but I’ll point out that New York is a superb 16-4 (+8.9 units) this season against southpaws. I think this one favors the hard-hitting home side, as I look for Gonzalez to take a step back in this difficult atmosphere. |
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06-19-18 | Sky v. Mystics UNDER 169.5 | Top | 60-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hopeful for a victory go head-to-head in WNBA action on Tuesday night, but for a number of different reasons I think this one has defensive battle written all over it. The teams: Washington is a deep team filled with talent. Allie Quigley leads Washington with 15.5 points per game, while Courtney Vandersloot adds 6.2 assists. Cheyenne Parker is a force in the paint and averages eight rebounds per night. Washington will be looking to take advantage of familiar surroundings. Elena Delle Donne leads the scoring charge with 18.3 points per game, while Natasha Cloud directs the show with 4.6 assists per night. Note that Donne also leads the nightly charge on the glass with 6.3 boards per game. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under’ the number in three of its last four against good offensive teams which average 77-plus points per night, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in two of its last three as a favorite. This one has the feel of more of a “chess match,” with a lot of half court sets on offense, instead of a run and gun “shootout.” This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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06-19-18 | Senegal v. Poland +133 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: While this is likely going to be a tight battle, I think Poland will have enough to score the outright win in regulation. The teams: Senegal is led by a Senegalese manager (Aliou Cisse) and it has plenty of strong players, including Sadio Mane. Senegal has its hands full in a tough Group H with Colombia and Japan though. One other player to keep your eyes on tonight is Napoli’s cental defender Kalidou Koulibaly, who will be tasked in slowing down Poland’s main offensive weapon. Poland has a strong team as well, including star Robert Lewandowski. This won’t be a cake walk though, as Poland is not going to have top defender Kamil Glik to open the tournament. But that means that it’s “next man up!” Keep your eyes on Jan Bednarek, who will be expected to step up in a big way in this one. The pick: Senegal has no injuries to worry about, but it simply lacks the depth and skill to hang with Poland. Lewandowski is a force and all signs point to a big game and tournament for the Polish super star. I’m expecting the Eastern European country to ride the wave of support and to find a way to get the job done at the end of the match. Play on Poland. |
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06-19-18 | Japan v. Colombia -145 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -145 | 117 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Colombia and Japan get ready to battle to open Group H. The Colombian’s have plenty of firepower to make a serious splash in 2018. Japan is a Group H outsider, but it has a couple of star players who also have the potential to make some noise early. The teams: Colombia is once again led by James Rodriguez. You’ll also want to keep your eyes on Radamel Falcao and Tottenham’s Davinson Sanchez, who is the key piece at the back. Japan is led by ex-Manchester United star Shinji Kagwa, along with Leicester striker Shinji Okazaki. The pick: Both teams qualified with relative ease, but I think Colombia’s pedigree and quality will prove to be too much for the Japanese. Few can say that they’ve taken points off Brazil of late, something that Colombia had to do to qualify. Japan topped Group B in the AFC qualifications system, but its level of competition was not even comparable. And finally the Colombian’s as whole have more big match experience and when you add it all up, it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. |
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06-18-18 | Marlins v. Giants -140 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami took a series against the Giants at home last week so suffice it to say, I think it’s payback time for San Francisco tonight. The Marlins’ Caleb Smith received a no-decision throwing opposite the Giants’ Andrew Suarez last Wednesday (Suarez also received a no-decision for his effort) and they’ll be facing off again on Monday. The pitchers: Smith is so far 5-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Smith would allow three runs off eight hits over 6.1 innings against San Francisco last week. Smith has been better than advertised for the Marlins this year, but note that he’s still just 3-4 with a 4.81 ERA on the road this season. Suarez is so far 2-4 with a 4.92 ERA. Suarez gave up two runs off five hits with three strikeouts over five innings in Miami last week. The southpaw has improved considerably of late with a 3.31 ERA in June and note that he owns a respectable 3.55 ERA at home (compared to 6.18 on the road.) The pick: Miami just 14-22 on the road as well, while San Francisco is 19-11 (+7.2 units) at home. Smith looks poised for a predictable letdown on the road in my opinion, while recent form displayed by Suarez definitely swings the value in favor of the home side. Lay the price. |
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06-18-18 | Rangers -101 v. Royals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: For arguments sake, I’m going to call these starters a “wash.” And if that is in fact the case, then I think it clearly swings the value to the hard-hitting visiting side. Kansas City goes with Ian Kennedy in this one, while the Rangers go with the venerable Bartolo Colon. The pitchers: Colon is so far 3-4 with a 4.94 ERA. Colon most recently gave up eight runs off nine hits while striking out three over 3.1 innings in a setback to the Dodgers on Tuesday. Colon has struggled of late, but he does have the track record, pedigree and experience to get things turned around. Kennedy is so far 1-6 with a 5.13 ERA. Kennedy has been a disaster this year, but he comes in off his best performance of the saxon, going eight scoreless in an unfortunate no-decision against Cincinnati on Tuesday. Prior to this gem though, Kennedy had gone seven straight outings without a quality start and note that his opposition is still hitting a healthy .289 off him. The pick: The moral of the story behind this pick, is to not “over-react.” I think Colon can easily out duel his struggling counterpart, as an immediate return to mediocrity seems imminent for Kennedy. Play on Texas. |
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06-18-18 | South Korea v. Sweden OVER 2 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a big game for both sides after Mexico’s win over Germany in World Cup Group F. While neither team is known for its offensive prowess, I believe each will open things up and I look for this one to fly over this low total, sooner rather than later. The teams: Sweden reached the World Cup after a 1-0 upset over Italy in the play-offs. That victory is now known as the “Miracle of Milan,” and the Swedish will be determined to prove that it was no fluke. South Korea reached the big tournament in Russia after finishing top of its final group, with a pivotal victory over fellow World Cup finalist Japan. Both teams will be ultra-motivated here as well after a poor run through the friendlies, as Sweden drew both World Cup warm-ups 0-0 in June against Denmark and Peru, while South Korea was beaten by Bosnia-Herzegovina and Senegal in pre-World Cup friendlies. The pick: Sweden enters a major tournament for the first time without the services of Zlatan Ibrahimovic, but most believe that has in fact made the Swedish a stronger unit. South Korea is led by dynamic Tottenham striker Son Heung Min, who had 18 goals for the Euro club this year. This one has the feel of a “track meet,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the over. |
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06-18-18 | D Shapovalov -124 v. G Muller | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -124 | 11 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Canadian Denis Shapalov comes in off back-to-back poor tournament showings, but he’s still ranked 23rd in the World. Luxembourger Gilles Muller is ranked 46th in the World and he comes in having lost four straight matches. The players: Muller has been on the pro circuit for 17 years, but he actually comes in having won just seven of his last 20 matches. Shapalov has an 18-14 record this season. Shapalov’s last appearance was in Stuttgart last week and he’d fall 6-7, 6-2, 3-6 against Prajnesh Gunneswaran. Shapalov bowed out to Maximilian Marterer in the second round at Roland Garros previous to that. Muller’s last tournament saw him bow out to 69th ranked Matthew Ebden in the round of 16 at Roland Garros. The pick: Shapalov has an aggressive baseline game, which will help him against Muller’s powerful serve. While Shapalov has struggled of late, Muller is in a complete “funk” right now and I think that carries over here. Shapalov has excelled on grass as well, which sets up him perfectly here. I think the veteran continues his regression, while all signs point to a great bounce back spot for the hungry Shapalov. Lay the price. |
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06-17-18 | Mercury v. Aces UNDER 164 | Top | 92-80 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mercury played on Saturday night and suffice it to say, I think Phoenix will come in a little flat-footed in the second game of the back to back. Las Vegas has struggled with game-to-game consistency all year and the last thing it can do is to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to “hang” with Phoenix. When you add it all up, this number seems a little high. The teams: Phoenix is led by Brittney Grier, with 20.8 points per game. Dian Taurasi is also a big contributor, leading the team with 4.4 assists. Grier also dominates the glass for the team with 7.3 boards per night. Las Vegas is led by A’ja Wilson with 20.3 points per night. Lindsay Allen directs the show with an average of 4.3 assists per night. A’ja Wilson also gets the job done on the boards with 7.3 per night. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Phoenix has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its six on the road already this year, while Las Vegas has seen the total go “under” in both games that it’s already played in this season after a loss by ten points or more. Play the “under.” |
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06-17-18 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -128 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -128 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets have struggled on the road, while the Diamondbacks have been at their best at home. I expect these trends to continue on Sunday. New York hands the ball to Zach Wheeler, while Arizona goes with Clay Buchholz. The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA. Wheeler most recently was smashed for six runs off eight hits and four walks while striking out two over 5.2 innings in a loss to Atlanta on Tuesday. Wheeler has been more “miss” than “hit” this year and note that he’s been poor on the road with an elevated 4.99 ERA. Buchholz is so far 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA. Buchholz comes in off a sub-par outing as well, allowing six runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out two over four innings in a no-decision to Pittsburgh on Tuesday. Previous to this disaster though Buchholz had given up one or two runs over his first four starts of the season. And despite his latest performance, Buchholz still owns a sharp 3.21 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. The pick: Note as well that Buchholz has been particularly effective in all “day” games to this point with a sharp 2.12 ERA as well. I’m banking on Buchholz outdueling his “on again off again” counterpart and for the hard-hitting Diamondbacks to do the rest. Play on Arizona. |
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06-17-18 | Phillies v. Brewers UNDER 8 | Top | 10-9 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these teams can struggle to put runs on the board at times and that was certainly the case again in the Phillies 4-1 win yesterday. With Philadelphia sending its ace Aaron Nola to the hill and with the Brewers countering with the improving Chase Anderson, I fully expect runs to be at a premium again this afternoon. The pitchers: Nola is so far 8-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Nola most recently struck out ten and gave up one run over seven innings in a victory over the Rockies on Tuesday. To go along with his elite ERA, note that Nola also sports a minuscule 0.93 WHIP. Anderson is so far 5-5 with a 4.13 ERA. Anderson most recently went seven scoreless against the Cubs on Tuesday, striking out six and allowing only one hit. While his ERA is pretty “mediocre,” note that Anderson comes in with a sharp 1.17 WHIP, while holding his opposition to a meagre .217 batting average. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 20 of 34 against teams with winning records, while Milwaukee has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 35 against clubs with winning records. This number is a little high, play the “under. |
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06-17-18 | Switzerland v. Brazil OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Brazil is the favorite to win this group and this tournament. Switzerland though will be risking life and limb to try and pull off the upset. With both teams pushing the pace, the prudent move is the “over” in my opinion. The teams: Brazil rolled through qualifying, including big outright victories over Argentina, Uruguay and Chile. Brazil also won its three international friendlies, including a 1-0 win over Germany. The Swiss booked their way to Russia through the UEFA playoff-spots, but underestimating Switzerland would clearly be a big mistake as it comes in ranked sixth in the World. The Swiss would post three wins while drawing with Spain 1-1 in the lead up to the World Cup. The pick: Neymar Jr returning to the line-up has given Brazil a big boost and he’ll be looking to put on a show in his team’s opening game. Xherdan Shaqiri of Liverpool will be leaned upon heavily for the Swiss and he should have his opportunities as well. When you add it all up, the “over” is definitely the correct call in this one. |
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06-17-18 | Marlins v. Orioles -168 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Enough is enough! The Marlins have inexplicably taken the first two games of this interleague series as sizeable underdogs, but I think their “luck” runs out on Sunday. Miami goes with Trevor Richards on the mound, while Baltimore goes with the suddenly red hot Dylan Bundy. The pitchers: Richards is so far 1-3 with a 4.41 ERA. Richards most recently comes off his first big league victory, allowing one run over six innings against the Giants on Tuesday. Richards though had struggled up to that point, so I’m going to caution in reading too much into one decent outing. Note that he’s already given up 17 walks over 34.2 innings this season, while also going a poor 0-2 with a 5.71 ERA on the road. Bundy is so far 4-7 with a 3.66 ERA. Bundy most recently went eight scoreless against the hard-hitting Red Sox on Monday, allowing three hits with two walks to go along with seven strikeouts. Bundy is finally rounding into form as he’s produced four straight quality starts. The pick: And note that Bundy has been “lights out” in this position all year, going 3-1 with a minuscule 1.08 ERA in all “day” games. I base my picks on many different things, but I don’t think we need to overthink this one. All things considered, I think we’re getting great value in this matchup. Lay the price. |
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06-17-18 | Mexico v. Germany -199 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -199 | 72 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Manager Joachim Low and Germany are favored to win Group F and while Mexico is a tough opening draw, I still think that the perennial favorite will find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. This is Mexico’s 16th appearance in the World Cup and it’ll still be hopeful to improve up an impressive 2014 run. The breakdown: Germany will once again be leaning heavily on Thomas Muller, who has scored five goals in each of his last two World Cups. The Germans have many new faces, but they dominated all ten of their qualifying matches, scoring an average of 4.3 goals per game (note that 21 different player scored for Germany in the qualifying round.) Goaltender Manuel Neuer is considered probably the best on the planet as well. Mexico’s top player is Javier Hernandez, who comes in off a “mediocre” campaign for West Ham. Guillermo Ochoa became a house hold name for his heroics in the 2014 World Cup against Brazil. There are still a number of players on this team that tasted gold in the 2012 Olympics in London. The Mexicans would concede just one goal in six qualifying matches. The pick: I think it’s important to note though that Low’s teams have not exited an international tournament before the semi final stage under his watch. Mexico will be realistic coming into this match, but all for naught in my opinion. Look for the Germans to send an early message with a decisive victory. |
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06-16-18 | Mets v. Diamondbacks -161 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -161 | 15 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona continues to bounce back after a rough stretch and everything points to another “easy” victory on Saturday night in what sets up as another favorable matchup on the mound. The visitors go with Steven Matz, while the Diamondbacks go with Patrick Corbin. The pitchers: Matz is so far 2-4 with a 3.53 ERA. Matz’s last start was skipped over due to a blister issue, but the southpaw has been given the green light to start tonight. Matz most recently allowed three runs off five hits with four walks over six innings in a no-decision to the Yankees last Saturday. Corbin is so far 6-2 with a 3.21 ERA. Corbin is coming off his worst outing of the 2018 campaign, allowing five runs off six hits with five strikeouts over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Pirates on Monday. Outings like that have been few and far between for the hard-throwing left-hander the last two years though, so there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to bounce back here. Note that he comes into this one sporting an awesome 110:25 K/W and he’s also a fantastic 4-1 with a 3.11 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York is a terrible 7-10 (-4.3 units) against left-handed starters this year, while Arizona is a fantastic 17-8 (+11.1 units) against left-handed starters this season. Frankly, I believe this line could be even larger. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks. |
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06-16-18 | Montreal v. BC -6.5 | Top | 10-22 | Win | 100 | 83 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Montreal only won three games last year and I think it’ll struggle on the road to open the 2018 campaign. The Lions struggled last year as well with just seven victories, as BC would miss the postseason for the first time since 1996. The Lions though feature depth and veteran leadership which I believe will help the team on Opening night. Everything points to a home side blowout. The teams: Montreal is now led by coach Mike Sherman, former Green Bay head boss. Drew Willy is experienced under center and he has a trio of decent playmakers in BJ Cunningham, Tyrell Sutton and Ernest Jackson. Note though that the defense finished dead last in total points allowed last season and that side of the ball is once again expected to be the team’s weak point. BC missed the playoffs, but it still finished third in the CFL in passing yards a year ago. Top receivers Bryan Burnham, Emmanuel Arceneaux and Jon Jennings are all back to make amends. Like their counterpart today, the main issue for the Lions last season was on the defensive side of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Al’s are 0-6 ATS in their last six on the road and just 5-16 ATS in their last 21 in BC. I like the Lions to put on an offensive show in front of the home town crowd on Opening weekend as everything points to another road letdown for the still re-building Als. Play on BC. |
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06-16-18 | Giants v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Madison Bumgarner has so far been pretty “mediocre” since returning from injury for the Giants, while Alex Wood has struggled of late for the Dodgers. These are two pitchers which have enjoyed a lot of success throughout their careers and clearly neither can be happy at where they are at this point of the 2018 campaign. I firmly believe though that their focus/hunger will prove to be the difference in this total, as everything points to a classic “duel” on Saturday night. The pitchers: Bumgarner is so far 0-1 with a 4.76 ERA. Bumgarner most recently allowed four runs off six hits and one walk over 5.1 innings in a no-decision to the Marlins on Monday. It was only the veterans second start of the season and clearly he still has some rust to shake off. Note that Bumgarner had a very respectable 3.26 ERA on the road last year though. Wood is so far 1-5 with a 4.43 ERA. Wood was removed after 4.2 innings of work against the Giants last Saturday after dealing a minor leg injury. Wood has admittedly struggled of late, but remember that he was 16-3 with a 2.72 ERA last overall last season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has already seen the total go under the number in a whopping 16 of 21 this season against left-handed pitching. I predict these starters battle deep into the latter frames and I look for this total to fall under at the end of the night. |
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06-16-18 | Hamilton +9.5 v. Calgary | Top | 14-28 | Loss | -110 | 80 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary is always one of the top teams favored to win the Grey Cup (at least over the last decade.) Hamilton though won’t be rolling over and while I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do expect the hungry visitors to at the very least keep this one close enough with the big spread. The teams: Hamilton has won just 13 games over the last two seasons, but it got a spark over the last two months with the addition of oft-maligned QB Johnny Manziel. Manziel is starting as the backup QB, but the ex Texas A&M pivot will be expected to come in and replace starter Jeremiah Masoli at some point. Returning from last year are the team’s top two receivers in Luke Tasker and Jalen Saunders, a duo which combined for over 2,300 receiving yards and 11 TD’s. The Ti-Cats achilles heel was on the defensive side of the ball a year ago, but the return of key players such as Richard Leonard and Larry Dean is expected to help the unit make strides in 2018. Calgary has lost the Grey Cup in each of the last two seasons in heart-breaking fashion and while it’ll be coming into the 2018 campaign with a collective “chip on its shoulder,” I think it will in fact come in a bit complacent here against its lowly non-conference opponent. The offense is once again led by Bo Levi Mitchell, who has 19,000 yards and 115 TD’s over four years as a starting QB with the team. The Stamps were the best defensive team in the league last year, allowing 349 total points, while also collecting 50 sacks. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Ti-Cats are 6-0 ATS in their last six road games, while the Stamps are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven in this series when playing in front of the home town crowd. This one has “competitive battle” written all over it. |
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06-16-18 | Marlins v. Orioles OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: While these teams combined for just two runs in the Marlins 2-0 upset victory on Friday, Saturday’s interleague contest definitely sets up as a “slugfest” in my opinion. Miami goes with the erratic Wei-Yin Chen, while Baltimore goes with confirmed “gas can” Alex Cobb. The pitchers: Chen is so far 1-3 with a 6.13 ERA. Chen most recently was smashed for four runs off six hits and four walks over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against San Francisco on Monday. Chen has now given up ten earned runs over his last 10.1 innings of work spanning three starts. Note that he’s been terrible on the road as well with an 0-3, 10.31 ERA record. Cobb is so far 2-8 with a 7.23 ERA. Cobb most recently gave up nine runs off 11 hits and one walk while striking out five over 3.2 innings in a loss to Toronto on Sunday. To go along with his brutal 7.23 ERA, note that Cobb also sports a terrible 1.77 WHIP and 37:14 K/W over 56 innings of work. Additionally note that he’s 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Miami has already seen the total go over the number in 10 of 14 this year as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range, while Baltimore has seen the total go over in five of eight this season as a home favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This one has “offensive fireworks” written all over it. |
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06-16-18 | Tigers -103 v. White Sox | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit prevailed 4-3 over the White Sox yesterday and I think it’ll find a way to get the job done here as well. The visitors go with Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Lucas Giolito. The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 2-0 with a 4.88 ERA. Zimmermann has been cleared to play after three minor league stints to get back into shape. The veteran has made seven starts for the Tigers this year and while his pedestrian ERA is nothing to write home about, he does have a respectable 1.31 WHIP to go along with a decent 32/9 K:W over 31.1 innings of work. Giolito is so far 4-7 with a 7.09 ERA. Giolito most recently was smashed for four runs off four hits and four walks over five innings in a loss to the Indians on Monday. Amazingly he’d throw more balls (47) than strikes (46) and the sub-par effort would mark the seventh time in just 13 trips to the hill in which he’s walked more than he’s struck out. The pick: Unfortunately a date at home is not what the doctor ordered to get Giolito back on track either, as note that he’s a terrible 1-4 with an 11.63 ERA in Chicago so far. Zimmermann comes in focused and takes full advantage of this favorable matchup. Play on the Tigers. |
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06-16-18 | Iceland v. Argentina OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -100 | 46 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Group “D” has been dubbed the “Group of Death” in the 2018 World Cup. This group includes Iceland, Argentina, Croatia and Nigeria. Argentina is favored to win the Group with Lionel Messi on board. Iceland has plenty of momentum itself after knocking off England in the 2016 Euros as a +795 underdog. The break-down: Argentina though would book its trip to the big tournament after a last second victory over Ecuador. It’s significant to note as well that Argentina would recently lose to Spain 6-1 in March, so there’s no question that there are questions surrounding the Group D favorite. Iceland is the smallest nation by population to ever qualify for the World Cup finals and it would follow up its impressive 2016 Euro run by coming out of a group which featured Croatia, Ukraine and Turkey. The pick: Iceland will be looking for another big upset to open the 2018 World Cup, as it catches Argentina looking extremely vulnerable. This match features a lot of offensive talent, which I believe will lead to this one sailing well above the posted number. Great value on the “over.” |
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06-15-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners -133 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Rick Porcello has been better than advertised for the Red Sox this season, but James Paxton is the correct call in this matchup in my opinion (especially at home.) I The pitchers: Porcello is so far 8-3 with a 3.54 ERA. Porcello most recently gave up three runs off five hits and three walks while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the White Sox on Sunday. Porcello owns a super 80:20 K/W so far this year and it’s difficult to say anything negative about him, I simply think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Paxton is so far 6-1 with a 3.02 ERA. Paxton most recently went seven innings against the Rays on Sunday, giving up three runs and no walks with ten strikeouts. 73 percent of his pitches went for strikes and the southpaw was also able to induce 15 swinging strikes and seven ground ball outs. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, note that Paxton also has a sharp 11.2 K/9 (is 3-1 with a 2.79 ERA at home as well.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston is just 2-6 in its last eight against right-handed starters, while Seattle is 30-15 (+16.8 units) against right-handed starters. Great value in my opinion, play on the Mariners. |
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06-15-18 | Toronto v. Saskatchewan OVER 52 | Top | 19-27 | Loss | -107 | 58 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with big expectations for the 2018 season collide on Friday night and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. The teams: Toronto won the 105th Grey Cup in 2017, its third championship since 2004. Ricky Ray returns as QB, along with playmaking WR’s SJ Green and Armanti Edwards. The Argos also feature a dynamic RB in James Wilder Jr. Overall Toronto would finish with 5,777 passing yards and it was considered one of the best “quick strike offenses” in the league. Defensively the Argos were also pretty good, a unit led by Bear Woods and Marcus Ball which would go on to produce 14 sacks. The Roughriders finished 10-8 last season. Big things are expected from QB Brandon Bridge, who has the keys to the offense now that veteran Kevin Glenn is gone. Bridge will be looking to get Duron Carter and Naaman Roosevelt involved early and often, a duo which combined for 2,000 yards and 16 TD’s last season. The offense also looks strong with RB Tre Mason, an Auburn standout. The defense was a strength as well, as it would allow a second best 430 points overall last season. The pick: But the Roughriders will be looking to push the pace here, as they’ve had recent success against the Argos, having taken three of the last four in the series. Clearly the defending champs won’t be rolling over though, as they’ll be looking to put on a show for the home town crowd, while also sending a message to the rest of the league. This one has the feel of a “track meet,” rather than a “chess match.” Play the “over.” |
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06-15-18 | Reds v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, so both the Reds’ Matt Harvey and the Pirates’ Chad Kuhl catch a bit of a “break” on Friday night. This number is slightly too large in my opinion. The pitchers: Harvey is so far 1-4 with a 5.97 ERA. Harvey comes in off a loss to the Cardinals on Friday, allowing five runs and three walks with five strikeouts over six innings. Harvey has been given another chance in the rotation to try and “right the ship,” and while that may or may not happen, I will point out that the Reds have seen the total dip below the number in ten of 15 already this season as a road dog in the +125 to +175 range and in 17 of 28 against right-handed starters. Kuhl is 4-4 with a 3.95 ERA. Kuhl most recently gave up three runs off eight hits and two walks while striking out six over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Cubs on Friday. Kuhl is 0-2 over his last three trips to the hill, despite allowing only six runs spanning 17.1 frames. Kuhl though has to be feeling confident here as he’s 2-1 with a 3.78 ERA at home this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has already seen the total go under the number in all three home games that it’s played in this season when the total in the contest is set between 9 and 9.5 and in 16 of 26 against the division. Because of all of the listed factors above, play the “under.” |
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06-15-18 | Marlins v. Orioles -147 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -147 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami has struggled on the road and while its starting pitcher Jose Urena has likely done better than what his record would indicate, I still think he’s in over his head here. Baltimore and Kevin Guasman will now look to take advantage of this favorable interleague contest. The pitchers: Urena is 1-8 with a 4.59 ERA so far. Urena most recently allowed three runs off six hits and no walks with five strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Friars on Sunday. Urena has had many unfortunate losses this season due to lack of run support and note that he comes into this one with a poor 5.27 ERA on the road. Gausman is so far 3-5 with a 4.58 ERA. Gausman comes in off a decent outing as well, giving up three earned runs off nine hits with six strikeouts over seven innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Saturday. Gausman has admittedly been “hit or miss” this year, but he does come in with a sharp 2.91 ERA in all night games to this point. The pick: Both teams have been terrible in almost every statistical category there is, but this one for me comes down to the starting pitching and the home field advantage. A great price in my opinion, play on the Orioles. |
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06-15-18 | Uruguay -138 v. Egypt | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 1356 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Uruguay is favoured to win Group A (host Russia is in the same group), so Egypt and Mohamed Salah are going to have their hands full today. The breakdown: Salah is one of the best players in the World and he scored 71 percent of the Pharaohs’ goals during World Cup qualifying. Salah injured himself in league play though and his conditioning coming into the tournament is a big concern for Egypt, a nation which hasn’t played in the World Cup since 1990. In fact Egypt is the second-lowest ranked team at 67th according to the FIFA standings. Egypt will also be leaning heavily on Mohammad Al-Sahlawi, who finished the Asia’s 2018 World Cup qualifying with 16 goals. Uruguay was knocked out of the 2014 World Cup by a surging Colombian team, so it’ll be out for redemption in this tournament. Keep your eyes on Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani, who should be able to have their way with an Egypt defense that lacks star power. ..talent. Egypt’s Salah is still a question mark at this point and if he does happen to play, will he in fact be at 100% strength? This line is way out of whack in my opinion. Great value, play on Uruguay. |
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06-14-18 | Red Sox v. Mariners +1.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off victories on Wednesday. Both of these starting pitchers have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. I’m expecting an all out battle in the opener of this important three-game set and as such, I think laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra run-and-a-half of insurance is the correct move in this matchup. The Red Sox go with David Price, while the Mariners go with Felix Hernandez. The pitchers: Price is so far 7-4 with a 4.00 ERA. Price most recently gave up two runs off five hits and three walks over six innings in a 4-2 win over the Chicago White Sox on Saturday. Price has been decent of late, but I think he’s going to struggle against the hard-hitting home side. Hernandez is so far 6-5 with a 5.70 ERA. After dominating the Rays over eight scoreless in his previous start, Hernandez predictably came back down to Earth in his next start against the Rays, allowing six runs over three innings on Saturday. I’ll point out though that Hernandez has been much better at home (4.04 ERA) than on the road (7.71) The pick: Both teams have been excellent this season and in my opinion, this one has “nail-biter” written all over it. Grab the 1.5 runs. |
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06-14-18 | Edmonton v. Winnipeg +7.5 | Top | 33-30 | Win | 100 | 33 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Winnipeg might be without starting QB Matt Nichols to open the 2018 campaign, but the Blue Bombers won’t be lacking for motivation on Opening Night after Edmonton knocked them out of the Western semi-final last year 39-32. Winnipeg won both regular season meetings a year ago though and I look for the hungry home side to at the very least, keep this one close enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread that it’s been afforded. The teams: Edmonton went 12-6 during the regular season in 2017, before then falling to Calgary in the West Final. The Eskimos feature one of the best QB’s in the league in Mike Reilly, who will have to start the season without two of his top targets in Adarius Bowman (went to Winnipeg in the offseason) and Brandon Zylstra (signed by the Minnesota Vikings.) As mentioned above, the Blue Bombers won’t have Nichols under center, meaning that rookie Chris Streveler is “the next man up.” Streveler looked pretty good in two preseason games, going 13 of 19 for 184 yards, two TD’s and an INT. But the Bombers have a bunch of talent on both sides of field, including Bowman, Nic Demski and LB Adam Bighill. In 2015 Bighill was named the CFL’s top Defensive player. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Edmonton is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 games in June, while the Bombers are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 against the West. While I’m going to stop short in calling for the outright, I’m banking on the home side keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. |
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06-14-18 | Astros -168 v. A's | Top | 7-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Astros starter Justin Verlander continues to defy the odds. Verlander’s career looked just about finished in Detroit, before then being traded to the Astros mid way through the year last season. The rest is history as Verlander would anchor a rotation that propelled Houston to a World Championship. Frankie Montas has been exceptional for the A’s in his limited time, but I think he’s in over his head in this matchup. The pitchers: Verlander is so far 8-2 with a 1.45 ERA. Most recently Verlander gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine over six innings in a win over Texas on Friday. Verlander leads the league in many statistical categories, as his 1.45 ERA and 0.76 WHIP lead all starters, while his 113 strikeouts rank fourth overall. Note that he’s 6-1 with a minuscule 0.96 ERA on the road as well. Montas is so far 3-0 with a 1.25 ERA. Montas most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits over 7.2 innings while striking out five and walking one in the A’s eventual 7-2 win. As mentioned above, Montas has been excellent, but I think he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Houston is already 14-6 (+5.4 units) this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Oakland is just 1-4 (-2.4 units) this year as a home underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I’m banking on Verlander to continue his progression and to get the better of his younger counterpart tonight. Lay the price. |
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06-14-18 | Indians -134 v. White Sox | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: One of these pitchers has been solid from Spring Training, while the other returned from injury to make his first start just last week. The Indians hand the ball to Mike Clevinger in this one, while the White Sox go with Carlos Rodon. The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 4-2 with a 3.31 ERA. Most recently Clevinger gave up two earned runs over 6.2 innings in a no-decision to Detroit on Saturday, also posting five strikeouts. Note that Clevinger is 2-1 with a 2.43 ERA on the road and an even better 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA in all “day” games. Rodon is so far 0-1 with a 3.60 ERA. As mentioned above, Rodon made his debut against the Red Sox on Saturday, allowing four runs off six hits and two walks over five innings. Rodon was decent, but it should be noted that he was a poor 0-2 with a 6.19 ERA in all “day” games last season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is already 17-11 (+1.6 units) this year in all “day” games, while Chicago is just 8-24 (-14 units) in all “day” games. I like Clevinger to out-duel Rodon and I look for the hard-hitting Tribe to do the rest. |
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06-14-18 | Giants v. Marlins OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Win | 105 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers has looked decent at times this year and also horrible in others. I’m expecting these starters to get the hook early and a result, the “over” is the correct call in my opinion. San Francisco goes with Dereck Rodriguez, while the Marlins go with Dan Straily. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 1-1 with a 5.25 ERA. After a decent outing against the Phillies in his debut, Rodriguez predictably came back down to Earth against the Nationals on Saturday, allowing five runs off six hits with three walks. While Miami is a favorable matchup usually for most pitchers, I still think the book is still out on the Giants’ rookie hurler. Straily is so far 2-2 with a 4.08 ERA. Straily most recently gave up four earned runs over 3.2 innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Saturday. Note that Straily owns a poor 7.11 ERA at home, compared to 2.67 on the road. The pick: Both starters come in off horrible performances and in my opinion, I believe it’s “foreshadowing” for more ineptitude in this one as well. I expect each to get chased early and as a result, I’m playing the over. |
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06-14-18 | Saudi Arabia v. Russia UNDER 2.25 | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Russia is hosting the 2018 World Cup, so it received an automatic bid to the Tournament. Saudi Arabia would finish up as a runner up to Japan in the Asian qualifying group. The breakdown: Russia was actually kicked out of the group stage of the FIFA Confederations Cup last year and it comes into the tournament having with varying results, most recently beating South Korea 4-2, before then drawing with Spain. Clearly nerves will be “high” for the hosts, as they’ll be looking to avoid an epic collapse in front of the home town crowd. Saudi Arabia is actually ranked ahead of Russia in the FIFA standings (63 compared to 64), but it comes in as a significant dog to knock off the hosts on Opening night. The pick: Russia has netted just one goal in its two most recent home fixtures, while Saudi Arabia has failed to score in two of its last four away games. The play on this one is the “under.” |
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06-13-18 | Reds v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday’s 5-1 defeat, I look for the Royals to at the very least keep this one close enough into the latter frames to earn the comfortable victory with the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. The Reds hand the ball to Tyler Mahle, while the home side goes with Jason Hammel. The pitchers: Mahle is 4-6 with a 4.33 ERA thus far. Most recently Mahle gave up three runs off six hits over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Thursday. Mahle has struggled of late, completing just six innings in just five of his 13 starts this year. Mahle has been hit or miss this season, being especially average on the road with a 3-3, 4.49 ERA. Hammel is 2-6 with a 5.12 ERA to this point. Hammel most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a loss to the A’s on Thursday. Hammel has struggled for most of the season, however he’s now started to turn things around by giving up just seven earned runs over his last 24.1 innings of work. The pick: The Reds earned the rare road win last night, but they’re still just 12-20 (-3 units on the road). It’s hard to say too many positive things about the Royals, however note that they’re 6-2 in their last eight after scoring one goal or less in their previous contest. In a contest which I envision being decided late or in extra frames, I’m playing the Royals on the run-line. |
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06-12-18 | Reds v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds beat the Cards 6-3 at home on Monday and I think they’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. The Royals on the other hand will be looking to get back on track after a 3-2 loss at Oakland last night. Neither team is known for its offensive prowess, meaning the under is the correct move in my opinion. The pitchers: Sal Romano gets the call for the visitors and he’s so far 3-7 with a 6.23 ERA. Romano most recently allowed five runs and a walk over five innings while striking out six in a loss to the Reds on Wednesday. Romano has been poor of late, but a date against the anemic Royals is just what the doctor ordered to get untracked in my estimation. Ian Kennedy is so far 1-6 with a 5.76 ERA and he’s being handed the ball by the home side. Kennedy though comes in off perhaps his best outing of the year, giving up one run off seven hits and three walks with five strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Wednesday. Like his counterpart today though, I believe that a date against the light-hitting Reds is just what he’ll need to get back on track. The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Reds have seen the total go under the number in 15 of 22 already this season following a win, while the Royals have seen the total go under in 25 of 41 following a loss. Play the under. |
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06-12-18 | Mets v. Braves -139 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mets trot out Zack Wheeler in this National League contest on Wednesday night, and he has admittedly looked far better over the last month after a disastrous start to the 2018 campaign. The Braves go with Mike Foltynewicz on the mound and he continues to show signs that he may be able to take his play to an entirely different level and then hold it consistently. The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 2-4 with a 4.57 ERA. Most recently Wheeler would go seven scoreless against Baltimore on Wednesday, giving up three hits and a walk while striking out five in what turned out to be a no-decision. Wheeler has been considerably better of late, but note that he’s still just 1-3 with a 5.01 ERA in all “night” games this season. Foltynewicz is far 5-4 with a 2.31 ERA. Most recently Foltynewicz would give up two earned runs off five hits while walking three and striking out eight over five innings in a loss to the Friars on Wednesday. Foltynewicz threw well enough to earn a victory in that one and he was just unfortunate to come out on the short end of the stick. Note thought that he’s 3-3 with a 2.38 ERA in all “night” games this year and 2-1 with a 2.55 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will, but New York is a poor 14-22 (-7.8 units) this season against teams with winning records, while Atlanta is a decent 10-8 (+1.6 units) against clubs with losing records. A very fair price considering the situation. Play on the Braves. |
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06-12-18 | Rockies v. Phillies -145 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Jon Gray gets the nod for the Rockies in this one. Gray’s overall performance to this point is likely better than what his numbers would indicate, but I still think he’ll have a hard time matching pace with Phillies’ ace Aaron Nola tonight. The pitchers: Gray is so far 6-6 with a 5.66 ERA. Gray earned a victory last time out against the Reds, allowing three runs off seven hits while striking out five over five frames on Wednesday. Gray has been better on the road than at home (not surprising considering it’s Coors Field we’re talking about), but he still enters with a poor 3-3, 4.73 ERA record away from friendly confines. Nola is 7-2 with a 2.35 ERA. Most recently Nola would give up three runs and post six strikeouts over six innings in a loss to the Cubs on Wednesday. It was probably his worst start of the season, so there’s nothing to panic about at this point obviously. Not only does Nola own the sharp 2.35 ERA, but he also has an 80:22 K/W over 85 innings of work so far this season. The pick: Both teams have been sliding in June. Note though that the Rockies are a poor 11-12 (-1.3 units) against clubs with winning records this year, while the Phillies are a decent 13-10 (+3.3 units) against teams with losing records. With its ace on the mound, I expect Philadelphia to get the job done in this matchup. |
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06-11-18 | Cubs v. Brewers +118 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the opener of a three-game set between these National League foes and in my opinion, the home field advantage will prove to be the difference in the end. The Cubs go with Jose Quintana, while the Brewers hand the ball to Junior Guerra. The pitchers: Quintana is so far 6-4 with a 4.20 ERA. Most recently Quintana gave up two runs off three hits and two walks over 5.2 innings in a somewhat unfortunate no-decision against the Phillies on Wednesday. Quintana though has been consistently inconsistent all year and I think he’ll struggle to match pace with his counterpart this evening. Guerra is 3-4 with a 2.83 ERA. Guerra most recently allowed three runs off seven hits with one walk and five strikeouts over six innings in a loss to Cleveland on Tuesday. Despite the unfortunate setback, Guerra has still posted an awesome 15:1 K/W over his last three starts and note that he’s consistently been at his best at home this year with a 3.03 ERA thus far. The pick: The Cubs stumbled at home to the Pirates yesterday and things definitely don’t get any easier facing the Brewers, who just took two of three from the Phillies. I think Guerra and Milwaukee are the correct all in this matchup. |
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06-11-18 | Giants v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
analysis soon The set-up: It’s the opener of a three-game set between these National League opponents and in my opinion, this one has “duel” written all over it. It’s southpaw vs. southpaw on Monday night, as San Francisco goes with Madison Bumgarner, while Miami goes with Wei Yin Chen. The pitchers: Bumgarner is 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA. Bumgarner finally returned from injury on Tuesday and he looked decent against the hard-hitting Diamondbacks by allowing two runs, while striking out three and walking none over three innings in what turned out to be a no-decision. Note that Bumgarner owned a 3.26 ERA on the road last year. Chen is 1-3 with a 5.86 ERA to this point. Most recently the leftie gave up two runs off six hits with two walks and two strikeouts over 4.1 innings in a no-decision against the Cardinals on Wednesday. Chen has been a disaster on the road this year (0-3, 10.31), but he’s been “lights out” at home (1-0, 1.06). The pick: Take it for what you will, but San Fran has already seen the total go “under” the number in 18 of 34 on the road, while Miami has seen it go “under” in 17 of 30 at home this season. Expect these two starters to fight into the latter innings and for this total to fall “under” at the end of the night. |
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06-10-18 | Yankees v. Mets OVER 7 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks have taken the first two games of the sub-way series. Yesterday the Yankees came from behind to win 4-3. While that contest stayed below the posted number, I think that Sunday’s finale sets up as more of a “slug-fest.” The Yanks go with Luis Severino in this one, while the Mets hand the ball to Seth Lugo. The pitchers: Severino is 9-1 with a 2.20 ERA. Most recently Severino gave up one run over eight innings in a win over Mariners on Monday. Let’s face it, Severino has been downright dominant this season and it’s basically impossible to say anything negative about the right-hander. This play however is more about the overall “situaiton.” Lugo is 1-1 with a 2.04 ERA. Lugo has been used as a reliever this season and he’ll make this start in place of the injured Noah Syndergaard. Over his last two appearances he’s thrown a total of 87 pitches. Lugo is not expected to see many innings in this one, which puts added pressure on the Mets bullpen. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Yankees has already seen the total go over the number in six of eight this season as a road favorite of -175 or more, while the Mets have seen the total soar over the number in five of their last seven against right-handed starters. I think the Yanks take advantage here and while I’m not ready to lay such a steep price, this one definitely has “offense” written all over it. Play the over. |
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06-10-18 | Aces +15 v. Mercury | Top | 66-72 | Win | 100 | 10 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phoenix Mercury have won four straight, but I think they come out complacent here, giving the advantage to the Las Vegas Aces. Las Vegas won’t be lacking motivation today as it sits at 1-6, while the Mercury come in at 6-3. The teams: The Aces most recently lost 87-83 at home to Atlanta. A’ja Wilson was a bright spot with 20 points and nine boards. Las Vegas coach Bill Laimbeer though will be eager to get off on the “right foot” here, as this marks the opener of a four-game, six-day road trip for his team: “We're trying to find a cohesive situation," Laimbeer said yesterday. "I'm pushing any button I can to get five players (to play together.)” The Mercury most recently hammered the Chicago Sky 96-79 on Friday, with all five starters scoring in double figures, led by center Brittney Griner with 24 points. The pick: Las Vegas though is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after three or more SU/ATS losses, while Phoenix is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after four or more SU victories. I think that Phoenix does indeed get caught “looking past” its lowly opponent tonight and while I’ll stop short in call for the upset, this has one definitely has “nail biter” written all over it in my opinion. Play on the Aces. |
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06-10-18 | Cardinals -116 v. Reds | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -116 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis would score the 6-4 victory over Cincinnati on Saturday and I think the visiting team will deliver the goods on Sunday afternoon as well. Carlos Martinez will be called upon by the Cards, while the Reds go with Anthony DeSclafani. The pitchers: Martinez is so far 3-2 with a 1.83 ERA. Martinez returned from injury and put together a mediocre first outing for his standards, giving up two runs off four hits with five walks and five strikeouts over four innings in a no-decision to Miami on Tuesday. There’s no reason not to think though that Martinez won’t be able to make significant progression in his second outing back, note that he’s 2-1 with a tiny 1.83 ERA on the road thus far. DeSclafani is 0-1 with a 7.20 ERA. DeSclafani comes in off a loss on Tuesday, his first big league start since late September 2016. He’d predictably get rocked for four runs off six hits and a walk over five innings against the Rockies. Clearly the book is still out on the right-hander at this point. The pick: St. Louis has a knack at winning the “important” games, as evidenced by its 21-11 (+8.4 units) record against the division. Cincinnati on the other hand is a horrible 6-20 (-13.2 units) against divisional foes. This line is way out of whack. Play on the Cards. |
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06-10-18 | Mariners -159 v. Rays | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on Seattle last night and that pick came up short, as Tampa wound up winning 7-3 with Blake Snell on the mound. Felix Hernandez wasn’t able to deliver back-to-back quality outings for the still surging Mariners, but with its bonafide ace on the mound tonight, I look for Seattle to find a way to deliver the goods in the final contest in this three game set. The Mariners go with James Paxton, while the Rays hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi. The pitchers: Paxton is 5-1 with a 2.95 ERA so far. Most recently Paxton gave up one run and a walk to go along with six strikeouts over eight innings in a win over Houston on Tuesday. It was Paxton’s seventh quality start out of his last eight tries and note that he now owns a ridiculous 101:25 K/W over 82.1 frames of work thus far. Eovaldi is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA. After going six no hit frames in his first start of the year Eovaldi would take a predictable step back in his second, giving up four runs off four hits over five innings in a loss to Washington on Tuesday. Clearly the sample size is still way too small to get an accurate read on where Eovaldi is at this point. The pick: Despite yesterday’s setback, note that Seattle is still 20-12 (+8 units) on the road this year, while Tampa is still only 12-15 (-4.5 units) at home. Paxton is the correct call in this matchup. Lay the price. |
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06-09-18 | Astros v. Rangers UNDER 9.5 | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams combined for ten runs in the Astros victory yesterday, but I believe we’ll see a much lower-scoring duel on Saturday night. The Astros hand the ball to Charlie Morton, while the Rangers go with Mike Minor. The pitchers: Morton is so far 7-1 with a 2.84 ERA. Morton will be looking to return to form after his first loss of the season, giving up six runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings to Boston on Sunday. No need to panic if you’re a Morton fan though I don’t think as he owns elite numbers across the board still, including the 2.84 ERA, a 1.08 WHIP and 92 K’s overall. Note as well that he’s 2-0 with a 3.00 ERA on the road. Minor is 4-4 with a 5.76 ERA so far. Minor most recently gave up four earned runs off six hits over five innings while striking out two in a 6-1 loss to the Mariners on Thursday. Minor’s ERA leaves everything to be desired, but he does own a respectable 1.35 WHIP thus far. Note that Minor has been at his best at home this year as well with a 3-2, 4.11 ERA record. The pick: I think it’s significant to note that Houston has seen the total go “under” the number in 16 of 27 against the division this year, while Texas has seen the total go “under” in 22 of 34 against divisional opponents. This number is just a little high, play the under. |
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06-09-18 | Orlando City SC v. Vancouver Whitecaps -126 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Recent form displayed by both teams suggests that Orlando City FC is going to be in trouble here. Last weekend the Vancouver Whitecaps won at the Colorado Rapids, after drawing four straight. On the other side of the field, Orlando City’s six game win streak is well in the rear view mirror at this point as it comes in having lost four straight. The teams: Both teams are dealing with a variety of injuries. Vancouver will be without Jordon Mutch and Stefan Marinovic, while Orlando City will be without Dillon Powers, Stefano Pimho and Jonathan Spector. Some interesting stats to take note of: There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Orlando City’s last seven games. Vancouver has drawn its last three home matches, but there have been over 2.5 goals scored in the Whitecaps last five games. Also note that Vancouver has scored at least two gaols in its last five matches, while Orlando City has allowed at least two goals in its last four matches. The pick: Home pitch advantage and momentum carry Vancouver to a convincing victory on Saturday night against floundering Orlando City. Great price, play on the Whitecaps |
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06-09-18 | Mariners +129 v. Rays | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on Seattle yesterday and it would hold on for the 5-4 victory. “Momentum” can often become a very tangible factor and I think that the Mariners carry it over into this one. Seattle goes with Felix Hernandez, while Tampa goes with Blake Snell. The pitchers: Hernandez is 6-4 with a 5.33 ERA thus far and “The King” comes in off his best outing of the season last Sunday, striking out seven and walking one over eight scoreless innings in what turned out to be a win over Tampa Bay. Hernandez is now trending in the correct direction and I look for that momentum to get carried over here as well. Hernandez now tries to improve upon his solid 62:29 K/W on the season. Snell is 7-3 with a 2.36 ERA. Snell threw opposite Hernandez last Sunday and he’d go six scoreless and strikeout 12 without a walk. Snell has been superb so far this year, but I simply feel that he’s facing the wrong team at the wrong time this weekend. The pick: Seattle is a super 19-11 (+8.1 units) on the road, while Tampa is just 11-14 (-4.4 units) at home. Look for the Mariners to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. |
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06-09-18 | Giants v. Nationals -153 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: San Francisco took Game 1 of this National League series by a score of 9-5 yesterday. Nats starter Stephen Strasburg sustained an injury early and Washington’s relievers clearly weren’t prepared to step in. But a favorable matchup on the mound Saturday afternoon has the host ready to make an immediate return to the winners circle in my opinion. The Giants go with Derek Rodriguez while the Nationals go with the red hot Gio Gonzalez. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 1-0 with a 1.93 ERA. Rodriguez made the most of his first big league start, giving up one earned run off five hits and two walks with over six innings in a win over Philadelphia on Sunday. With Jeff Samardzija returning from the DL shortly, Rodriguez will be shipped backed to Triple-A Sacramento. So is Rodriguez “the real deal,” and can he duplicate his first performance in this pressure packed venue? Clearly the books is still out on the youngster. Gonzalez is 6-2 with a 2.27 ERA. Most recently the southpaw gave up three runs off five hits while striking out nine over seven innings with no walks in what turned out to be a no-decision against the Braves on Saturday. Gonzalez has excelled across the board this season, but he’s been especially tough at home by going 3-1 with a 2.10 ERA (he’s also 3-0 with a 1.64 ERA in all “day” games.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is a poor 18-21 (-1.7 units) this season against clubs with winning records, while Washington is 27-13 (+9.2 units) against teams with winning records. After yesterday’s lop-sided defeat, I expect the hard-hitting home side to respond in turn this afternoon. Lay the price. |
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06-08-18 | Braves v. Dodgers -180 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta had the day off yesterday, while LA comes to town off a series win over the Pirates. There is a big talent gap on the mound today in my opinion, one so wide that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The Braves send Brandon McCarthy to the hill, while the Dodgers go with Walker Buehler. The pitchers: McCarthy is so far 5-2 with a 4.83 ERA. McCarthy most recently gave up two runs off four hits over six innings in a no-decision against the Nationals on Saturday. Previous to that decent outing though McCarthy had been rocked for five runs. To go along with his uninspiring ERA, McCarthy also owns a pedestrian 1.50 WHIP (also note that he has a 5.93 ERA in all “night” games.) Buehler is 3-1 with a 2.74 ERA so far. Most recently Buehler gave up four runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision against the Rockies on Saturday. Considering the venue (Coors Field), it was another solid outing for the rookie. Note that it was in fact the first time in eight starts that he’d strike out less than six opponents (also note that Buehler owns a minuscule 1.44 ERA at home so far.) The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Dodgers are 9-2 in their last 11 after scoring eight or more runs in their previous contest (LA won 8-7 in Pittsburgh yesterday afternoon.) I’m banking on Buehler continuing his strong play at home and for McCarthy to once again take a step back. Lay the price. |
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06-08-18 | Warriors v. Cavs +5 | Top | 108-85 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Warriors on the “money line” in Game 3, laying the larger price for what turned out to be a relatively easy victory in the end. In Game 4 though I’m predicting that the hungry Cavaliers will keep the final score much more competitive and while I wouldn’t in fact be completely shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing as many points as you can. The teams: Golden State comes in averaging 47.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs, but only 35.6 percent from 3-point land. Kevin Durant led the way in the Game 3 win with 43 points, 13 boards and seven assists, while Stephen Curry though had just 11 points. Andre Igoudala would return for his first action of the series and score just eight points in 22 minutes off the bench. Cleveland is hitting 45.7 percent from the floor in the playoffs and only 33.5 percent from 3-point land. LeBron James predictably led the way in Game 3 with 33 points, ten boards and 11 assists, while Kevin Love did his best with 20 points and 13 boards. The pick: It’s do or die for the Cavaliers. Golden State now has a virtually insurmountable lead in this series and a loss here would change nothing to its odds in accomplishing that. Winning the NBA Championship at home in Game 5 in front of the home town crowd would be pretty sweet. Right? The Cavs though have been embarrassed in this series and I think they are clearly the “hungrier” team tonight. I expect Cleveland’s overall desperation to be the difference in this one. Grab the points. |
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06-08-18 | Yankees v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the “Subway Series” for the first time this year and in my opinion, everything points to a classic “duel” in the first game. The Yankees will hand the ball to Masahiro Tanaka, while the Mets counter with their ace Jacob DeGrom. The pitchers: Tanaka is 7-2 with a 4.79 ERA so far. Tanaka most recently gave up four runs off eight hits with one walk over 5.1 innings while also striking out seven in a victory over Baltimore on Saturday. Tanaka has admittedly been “hit or miss” this season, but I’m expecting the hard-throwing right-hander to be at his best in this high-profile matchup. More than anything though this pick is based on the sheer dominance of Jacob DeGrom (4-0, 1.49) who received a no-decision despite allowing only one run off seven hits and two walks over seven innings while striking out 13 against the Cubs on Saturday. DeGrom now owns a Senior Circuit-low 1.49 ERA and his 1.04 WHIP has to be considered elite. Also note that he owns a fantastic 98:21 K/W over 72.1 frames of work. The pick: Fortunately for the sometimes volatile Tanaka, he faces an opponent which has struggled with offensive consistency all year. And especially it’s seemed whenever the Mets have had their “ace” on the mound. This one has “pitchers duel” written all over it. Play the under. |
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06-07-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -140 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -140 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: I played on the Golden Knights in Game 4 and while that pick came up short, I firmly believe that Las Vegas will finally respond in this “do or die” situation. Once again it’ll be Braden Holtby for the Capitals in net and he’s so far 15-7 with a 2.13 GAA, while the Knights will go with Marc Andre Fleury, who is 13-6 with a 2.15 GAA. The teams: Washington is the highest scoring team in the playoffs this year with 3.57 GPG average, but overall the Capitals are 30-23 on the road, averaging 3.08 goals and allowing 3.08 as well. TJ Oshie netted his eighth of the playoffs in the Game 4 victory, while Devante Smith-Pelly notched his sixth. Vegas is averaging 2.84 goals in the playoffs this season, but overall the Golden Knights have gone 36-14 at home and they’ve averaged 3.58 goals and allowed just 2.42 in those games. James Neal scored in the Game 4 setback, his sixth so far of the year. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Washington is 3-8 in its last 11 after scoring five goals or more in its previous contest, while Vegas is 6-1 in its last seven after allowing five or more goals in its previous game. I think that the Golden Knights’ “magic” returns in Game 5 (for one game at least!) Lay the price. |
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06-07-18 | Phillies +118 v. Cubs | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams were locked in a tight battle into the latter frames last night, but I’m expecting a decisive victory for the visitors on Thursday afternoon. The Phillies hand the ball to Nick Pivetta, while the Cubs go with Tyler Chatwood. The pitchers: So far Pivetta is 4-4 with a 3.48 ERA. Pivetta most recently gave up three earned runs over four innings in a loss to the Giants on Friday. Previous to that though Pivetta had been on fire, going into that sub-par outing having given up just three earned runs, while striking out 32 over 24 innings. Pivetta owns a sharp 1.15 WHIP over 62 innings and he’s been at his best in all “day” games, with a 2-1, 1.88 ERA record. Chatwood is so far 3-4 with a 4.02 ERA. Chatwood most recently gave up two runs off four hits and four walks while striking out three over 5.1 innings against the Mets on Friday. Previous to that decent performance though Chatwood had been pulled after 2.2 innings in his previous two starts, while also walking 11 opponents in that span. Chatwood owns a poor 1.73 WHIP with 47 K’s and 49 walks over 53.2 innings. The pick: Chicago has been struggling at the plate, and I think it’s going to have its hands full with Pivetta. Chatwood’s been consistently inconsistent all year and I don’t foresee anything changing here. Play on the Phillies. |
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06-07-18 | Dodgers v. Pirates UNDER 8 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played to a wild, high-scoring slug-fest on Wednesday night, but in my opinion Thursday’s afternoon matchup sets up as more of a lower-scoring “duel.” In this one the Dodgers send Dennis Santa to the hill, while the Pirates will go with Jameson Taillon. The pitchers: Santana is so far 1-0 with a 12.27 ERA. Santana was thrown to the wolves in his first big-league start, as he’d be called in in relief at Coors Field where he’d be smashed for five runs off six hits over 3.2 innings. However, the Dodgers were mashing the ball in that game and Santana managed to pick up the victory in the end. Over ten starts in the minors Santana posted a 2.54 ERA and 65:16 K/W over 49.2 innings. But this pick is based mainly on the improved play of Taillon, who is 3-4 with a 3.97 ERA. Taillon most recently struck out six over eight scoreless with just one walk in a win over the Cards on Friday. Taillon now owns a superb 1.16 WHIP and a sharp 60:18 K/W over 65.2 innings. The pick: LA has seen the total go under in 11 of 15 already this season when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, while Pittsburgh has seen the total go under in 15 of 25 “day” games. Play the under. |
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06-06-18 | Warriors -167 v. Cavs | Top | 110-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: After Cleveland lost Game 1 in the fashion that it did, you could visually see the Cavs have a mental collapse. In fact it was reported that the Cavaliers were completely dejected after the difficult setback. And that was carried over into Game 2, where they got out to a slow start and then they were never able to catch up. Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and the rest of the defending champions can now “smell the blood in the water” and I believe that laying the larger price on the money line is the sharp call in Game 3. The teams: The Warriors are shooting 47.9 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including only 35.6 percent from range. Curry though would hit a record nine three-pointers in Game 2 and the super star sharp-shooter now looks like he’s back to top form. Durant had 26 points, nine boards and seven assists in the victory, while Klay Thompson added 20. The Cavaliers are shooting just 45.7 percent from the floor in the playoffs, including only 33.5 percent from 3-point land. LeBron James had 29 points, nine boards and 13 assists in the Game 2 loss, while Kevin Love added 22 points and ten boards. After his colossal Game 1 blunder, JR Smith had just five points last time out. The pick: This pick is on the money line, but I’ll point out that Golden State is still 21-16 ATS the last three years when leading in a playoff series, while Cleveland is just 7-19 ATS this season after a loss by ten points or more. Forget the spread and lay the price on the surging Warriors. |
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06-06-18 | White Sox v. Twins -165 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Twins took Game 1 of yesterday’s double-header by a score of 4-2, while the White Sox would respond in the second with a 6-3 victory. Chicago though sends an erratic starter to the hill, making Minnesota well worth the price of admission in this spot in my opinion. The pitchers: The White Sox go with Hector Santiago, who is so far 1-2 with a 5.10 ERA. Most recently Santiago would allow three runs off five hits and five walks with one strikeout over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Brewers on Friday. Carlos Rodon is expected to be back from injury soon and when he does, Santiago will be moved back to the bullpen. And that’s probably good news for ChiSox fans, as Santiago owns a poor 0-2, 8.50 ERA record in all “night” games this season. The Twins go with Jake Odorizzi (3-2, 4.14) who was blasted for eight runs off seven hits in a loss to the Indians on Thursday. Previous to that though Odorizzi had given up just five runs over 27.1 innings, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor outing. Odorizzi has to be feeling confident here as well with a 2-1, 3.90 ERA record in all home contests to this point. The pick: Minnesota has won the “important” contests this season, going 11-6 (+4.6 units) against the division. Chicago on the other hand has been a disaster across the board, especially against clubs with losing records, going just 11-18 (-7.2 units). I like Odorizzi to bounce back here in front of the home town crowd. |
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06-06-18 | A's v. Rangers +120 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 120 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers pulled away late in yesterday’s 7-4 victory and I think the home side looks poised to build off that performance. Daniel Mengden has been sharp, but I think the venerable Bartolo Colon will at the very least, match his counterpart inning for inning on Wednesday night. The pitchers: The A’s do indeed go with Mengden, who is so far 6-4 with a 2.91 ERA. Mengden comes in off a victory over the Rays on Thursday, allowing three runs off six hits and two walks over eight innings. Mengden has won four straight, but I’ll point out that the A’s are a poor 4-7 in their last 11 after allowing seven or more runs in their previous outing. Colon is so far 2-3 with a 4.21 ERA. Most recently the veteran gave up six runs off eight hits over three innings in a loss to the Angels on Friday. Colon hasn’t been at his best over the last couple of weeks, but he still enters this contest with a sharp 1.03 WHIP and 44:8 K/W spanning 66.1 innings of work. The pick: Texas is a fantastic 11-4 in its last 15 after scoring seven or more runs in its previous contest. Suffice it to say, I look for that strong trend to carry over here. |
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06-06-18 | Brewers v. Indians OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -101 | 6 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes into your head when you think about these two teams? For me its big time offensive fireworks. But that wasn’t the case on Tuesday night though as Cleveland came out on top of a lower-scoring pitchers duel in the 3-2 decision. However, a higher-scoring slug-fest would appear to be in the cards on Wednesday afternoon though as a couple of suddenly struggling starters collide. The pitchers: The Brewers go with Chase Anderson, who is 4-4 with a 4.45 ERA. Anderson comes in off another shaky outing, allowing four runs off five hits and a walk over 5.2 innings in a loss to the White Sox on Friday. Anderson has now failed to go at least six frames in five of his last seven starts and it’s important to note that he’s a poor 0-2 with a 5.14 ERA on the road to this point. The Indians go with Carlos Carrasco, who is 6-4 with a 4.50 ERA. Carrasco most recently gave up six runs off seven hits and three walks over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Twins on Friday. Carrasco has completely fallen off the rails of late, posting a disturbing 6.37 ERA over his last seven seven starts to go along with a terrible 1.8 HR/9. Note that he owns a 5.59 ERA at home and an even worse 5.90 ERA in all “day” games. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Milwaukee has already seen the total go over the number in seven of 12 road games this year when the total is set between 8 and 8.5, while Cleveland has seen the total go over in 11 of 16 home games when the total is set between 8 and 8.5. These two erratic starters get chased early and this one flies over the number sooner, rather than later. |
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06-05-18 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -128 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -128 | 15 h 31 m | Show |
The set up: One of these teams started off the season poorly, while the other looked unstoppable. However, the tables have turned after the first month and I think the home side will build off its convincing blowout from last night. The pitching match-up: Arizona goes with Patrick Corbin, who is 5-2 with a 2.99 ERA thus far. Like his team, Corbin got off to an unreal start to the 2018 campaign, one which now looks completely unsustainable. Corbin most recently was shelled for six runs off five hits over six innings to the Reds on Wednesday. San Francisco welcomes back Madison Bumgarner, who returns from the 60-day DL to make his first start of 2018. Bumgarner looked great in his final tune-up, going 3.2 shutout innings, while posting eight strikeouts in the process. Bumgarner was 4-9 with a 3.32 ERA during his injury riddled 2017 campaign, posting a very respectable 3.40 ERA at home and an even better 2.81 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: After last night’s loss, Arizona is now just 12-15 (-1.5 units) on the road this season. And after last night’s win, San Francisco is now 18-10 (+6.6 units) at home. I think Bumgarner and the surging Giants are the correct call in this matchup. |
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06-05-18 | Marlins v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -117 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set up: St. Louis would take five of seven from Miami last year. The Marlins come in having lost seven straight, while the Cardinals remain competitive, having gone 31-25 so far this season and 6-3 in their last nine. The pitching match-up: Jose Urena gets the call for the Marlins and he’s so far 0-7 with a 4.41 ERA. Urena has been unlucky so far this year though, as his team continues to struggle at the plate. Despite his pedestrian ERA, note that he does own a sharp 1.17 WHIP. Urena has had success at Busch Stadium as well, going 1-0 with a 3.60 ERA. The Cards go with Carlos Martinez, who returns from a stint on the disabled list with a 3-2, 1.62 ERA record. Martinez owns a 1.08 WHIP over eight starts this season and he’s 1-1 with a 1.48 ERA and 1.06 WHIP in five starts at home. The pick: Clearly Urena has thrown well enough of late to earn a victory, unfortunately for the hard-throwing right-hander his team has had difficulty giving him any sort of offensive support whatsoever. Take it for what you will, but Miami has already seen the total go under the number in 22 of 40 this year against clubs with winning records, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in 15 of 20 against teams with losing records. Expect these two starters to battle and for this total to stay under once it’s all said and done. |
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06-05-18 | A's -132 v. Rangers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -132 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set up: This is the opener of a three-game set between AL West foes. Oakland is hovering right around the .500 mark so far, sitting at fourth in the division. The A’s are 6.5 games behind the Mariners, but seven games up on these very Rangers. The pitching match-up: Oakland goes with Sean Manaea, who is 5-6 with a 3.60 ERA to this point. Manaea most recently gave up four runs off four hits with one walks and three K’s over five innings in a setback to Tampa Bay on Wednesday. It wasn’t his best outing, but Manaea still managed to induce 11 swinging strikes over 95 pitches and he’d walk just one batter or less for the eighth time in his last 12 trips to the hill. Manaea has to be feeling confident here as he’s 3-2 with a 3.50 ERA on the road this season. Matt Moore gets the call for the Rangers and he’s just 1-5 with a brutal 7.85 ERA. Moore was lucky to earn a no-decision in his last outing as he’d give up five runs off eight hits and two walks over 5.1 innings to the Mariners on Wednesday. Moore can’t be feeling terribly confident here either, as note that he’s 0-3 with a 7.83 ERA at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Oakland is already 2-1 this season as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range, while Texas is just 5-7 as a home dog in the +125 to +175 range. No need to overthink this one gentlemen. In this important early season series, Manaea is the correct call in this particular matchup. |
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06-05-18 | Orioles v. Mets OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set up: This is the opener of a short two-game interleague matchup. The Orioles come in desperate as they’ve lost seven straight, not surprisingly owning the worst record in all of MLB. The Orioles’ bats come in rested though, as after losing 8-5 to the Yanks on Saturday, they were rained out on Sunday. The Mets have been terrible of late as well, coming into this contest having lost four straight and sitting at 27-30 overall, bad enough for fourth place in the NL East. Both of these line-ups though will be eager to “get off the schneid” as they each face a couple of confirmed “gas cans” on the mound tonight. The pitching match-up: Alex Cobb gets the call for the Orioles and he’s so far 1-7 with a 6.80 ERA. He also owns a horrible 1.81 WHIP and over his last three starts he’s been destroyed for nine earned runs spanning 10.2 innings of work. Additionally, opponents are hitting a whopping .356 off him. Jason Vargas gets the nod for the Mets and he’s 2-3 with an 8.53 ERA thus far. Vargas comes in off a a decent outing in his last start, giving up no runs over five innings. Despite that performance though, Vargas has still been rocked for 19 earned runs over 12.1 innings spanning his last three starts. The pick: No need to overanalyze this one. Both teams are desperate for a spark and each comes in well rested. These pitchers have been a couple of the worst in the league and when you combine those two factors, the correct move is the “over” in my opinion. |
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06-04-18 | Royals v. Angels UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Royals lost their series with the A’s over the weekend and fell 5-1 in yesterday’s finale, while the Angels would hold on for a 3-1 win over the Rangers on Sunday. Both of tonight’s starters have struggled at times this season, but I believe the conditions are right for a lower-scoring under on Monday night. The pitchers: Kansas City goes with Danny Duffy (2-6, 5.71 ERA) who comes in off his best start of the season, allowing one run off four hits while striking out four over six innings in an unfortunate no-decision against Minnesota on Tuesday. As mentioned above, Duffy has admittedly struggled this so far this season (54:31 K/W over 64.2 innings), but take it for what you will, as note that he’s consistently been at his best in all “night” games with a 2-1, 3.72 ERA. LA goes with Nick Tropeano (3-3, 3.80) who comes in off a strong outing himself, holding the Tigers to two runs off seven hits with no walks and five strikeouts over six innings in the eventual win. Tropeano comes in on top form, having given up three runs or fewer in four of his last five starts. I’ll point out as well that Tropeano has been solid in all night contests by posting a 3.90 ERA this season. The pick: KC has seen the total go under in 15 of 26 on the road already, while LA has seen the total dip below the number in 16 of 30 at home. I think there are enough significant factors pointing towards the “under” as the correct call in this one. |
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06-04-18 | Golden Knights +118 v. Capitals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the “over” in Game 3, and while that one would come up short, I firmly believe that Las Vegas will bounce back here after back-to-back defeats. Take it for what you will, but Las Vegas is 12-3 (+8.7 units) this season after scoring one goal or less in its previous outing. The teams: I said before this series started that the victor would be whichever team’s goaltender played better. So far Braden Holtby has been better than his counterpart Marc-Andre Fleury. Holtby is 14-7 with a 2.13 GAA in the postseason. Washington is 33-18 at home this year, averaging 3.31 goals, while allowing 2.57. Alexander Ovechkin scored his 14th of the playoffs in the Game 3 victory, While Evgeny Kuzetsov notched his 12th. Fleury is 13-5 with a 1.95 GAA in the postseason. The Golden Knights are “road warriors,” coming into Game 4 having gone 28-22 on the road overall (including 6-3 in the playoffs) averaging 2.82 and conceding 2.82 in those games. Tomas Nosek would deliver with the lone goal for the Knights in Game 3 and he now has four in his last five games. The pick: Las Vegas has already re-written the NHL record books, but clearly the Golden Knights can’t be happy after back-to-back lacklustre efforts. The Capitals haven’t been to a Stanley Cup Final in 20 years and after holding on for the Game 2 victory, they’d ride the wave of emotion at home to another Game 3 win. But in my opinion, this one sets up as a classic letdown spot now for Washington. Bank on Fleury returning to form and for the Knights to gut out the victory. |
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06-03-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214.5 | Top | 103-122 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set up: I had a play on the “over” in Game 1. We’d need a little luck to cash that ticket, as a bone head play by JR Smith of the Cavs near the end of regulation would then cause the game to head to an extra period, indeed pushing the total over the number once and for all. These teams had 112 points at half time, but they’d slow down in the second half and combine for 102. LeBron James had 51 points, eight boards and eight assists for the Cavaliers, while Stephen Curry had 29 points, six boards and nine assists for the Warriors. The break-down: It’s essentially “do or die” for the Cavaliers almost at this point, as a 2-0 hole to this sharp-shooting Warriors team will likely be just too much for “The King” to overcome. Cleveland won’t be going down without a fight obviously. Note that after hitting only 43.1 percent from the floor in the Indiana series, the Cavs are now shooting 46 percent entering Game 2 of the Finals. Note that Kevin Love was also a bright spot for Cleveland in Game 1 with 21 points and 13 boards. The Warriors could care less about any mental issues the Cavaliers are going through right now and they’ll be doing everything they can to kick Cleveland while its down. Golden State comes into Game 2 shooting 47.4 percent from the floor in the playoffs. Note that the Warriors hit 19 of 20 from the line in Game 1, while committing just eight turnovers. Klay Thompson was a stand out as well in the victory with 24 points, while Draymond Green added 13 points, 11 boards, nine assists, five steals and two blocks. The pick: I predict very little defense being played today by Cleveland as it’ll be forced to match pace with a Warriors offense that can “smell the blood in the water.” Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go over the number in 17 of 25 already this season after allowing 115 points or more. This number is a little low, play the over. |
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06-03-18 | Lynx v. Sparks -3 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The set up: The season is just underway, but the LA Sparks are already rolling. Minnesota is 2-4, while LA is 3-1. In this particular contest, I don’t think that the home court advantage can be overlooked as very real deciding factor once it’s all said and done. The teams: Both teams sport plenty of talent. Minnesota has Maya Moore, who is averaging 17.3 PPG, along with Sylvia Fowles (16.5) and Seimone Augustus (11.7). LA features Nneka Ogwumike who is averaging 20.3 points, while Chelsea Gray adds 18.5 and Odyssey Sims contributes 18.0. The pick: I don’t normally put a lot of stock on ATS trends, but in this case they are overwhelming. Note that the Lynx are 0-6 ATS overall this year and just 3-4 ATS in their last seven after a loss by ten points or more. LA on the other hand is 3-1 ATS overall, including 2-0 ATS as the favorite (and 42-32 ATS as the fav the last two years.) Also note that LA is a sharp 16-8 ATS in its last 24 when playing with three or more days rest. The Lynx are “due” to break out of their slump at some point, but I don’t foresee that happening against this rested and red hot Sparks team on the road. Lay the points. |
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06-03-18 | Rays v. Mariners -101 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The set up: I’m always on the look out for value in Major League Baseball and in this case, I think “The King” offers great value at home in this particular matchup. The pitching matchup-up: Tampa Bay goes with Blake Snell, who is so far 7-3 with a 2.56 ERA. Snell most recently gave up one run off two hits while striking out seven over 5.2 innings in a victory over the A’s on Tuesday. Snell’s been great and it’s difficult to find too many faults, but I do think it’s important to note that while he owns a minuscule 0.86 ERA at home, his ERA raises to 4.01 on the road. The Mariners turn to Felix Hernandez, who is 5-4 with a 5.83 ERA. Hernandez comes in off an outing to forget on Tuesday, giving up five runs off six hits while striking out four over five innings in a setback to the Rangers on Tuesday. It wasn’t Hernandez’s best month, as he’d finish with a pedestrian 29:16 K/W over 33.2 innings in May. I will point out though that while his ERA is an atrocious 7.03 on the road, it’s a much more respectable 4.42 at home. The pick: Seattle is 12-8 this year against southpaws, while Tampa is just 18-19 (-2.7 units) against right-handed starters. I look for the Rays to stumble and I expect Hernandez to get back on track to open June. Play on the Mariners. |
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06-03-18 | Phillies v. Giants UNDER 8 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The set up: When I play a total in Major League Baseball, the primary factor I’m looking at is the starting pitchers. And in this particular contest, a couple of red hot hurlers collide on Sunday afternoon, making the “under” the correct O/U move in my opinion. The pitching match-up: The Phillies go with Jake Arrieta, who is so far 5-2 with a 2.16 ERA. Last year with the Cubs Arrieta was 14-10 with a 3.53 ERA. Most recently the right-hander would go seven shutout innings against the Dodgers on Tuesday, allowing six hits and two walks to go along with five strikeouts. Over his last two starts Arrieta has posted a 12:1 K/W and note he’d go on to finish the month of May with a minuscule 0.90 ERA spanning 30 innings of work. Derek Rodriguez has been named the starter for the Giants in this one, as he’s been cleared to play after taking a liner off his right leg in the first inning of his last start. Rodriguez threw a bullpen session on Friday and note that he was sharp in his time at Triple-A Sacramento by posting a 3.40 ERA and 1.20 WHIP across 50.1 innings. The pick: Take it for what you will, but not only has Philadelphia seen the total go under the number in 17 of 26 this season in all games when the total in the contest is set at either 8 or 8.5, but it’s also seen it go under in eight of 14 against southpaws (San Fran has seen the total go under the number in 18 of 33 vs. right-handed starters as well.) Look for these two starters to go deep into this one and play the under. |
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06-03-18 | Cubs -141 v. Mets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
The set up: The Cubs and Mets were locked in a “pitchers duel” on Saturday night between Mike Montgomery and Jacob DeGrom, but I expect a decisive victory here for the visitors in this particular matchup. The pitching match-up: The Cubs go with veteran Jon Lester in this one and he’s so far 5-2 with a 2.71 ERA. Lester wasn’t at his best last Tuesday against the Pirates, but he still managed the victory despite giving up four runs over six innings. He’d also post six strikeouts. No need to overreact to one sub-par effort I don’t think, as it was the first time he’d allow more than two runs in an outing since April 25th. While his strikeout numbers aren’t the greatest (60 K’s over 69 innings), note that Lester comes into this one with a stellar 3-1, 3.48 ERA record on the road. The Mets go with Steven Matz, who is so far 2-3 with a 3.55 ERA. Matz left his last start early against the Braves with an injury to his middle finger on his left hand, but the southpaw has been given the green light to go in this one. Matz has been hit-or-miss this season and comes in with a poor 1-2, 5.40 ERA record at home. The pick: Matz has been “shaky” at best this year, especially at home. Has he in fact recovered from the finger injury that he sustained in his last start? Too many questions surrounding the leftie in my opinion. Lester though has been very consistent on the road and I expect him to carry that momentum over here. Play on Chicago. |
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06-02-18 | Marlins v. Diamondbacks -150 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona had little problem dispatching the Marlins yesterday (9-1), and in my opinion, tonight’s contest could be even more lopsided. Arizona started the season on fire, but it’s come back down to Earth over the last three weeks. Yesterday’s blowout win is a sign of things to come in this series though in my opinion. Miami looked weak at the plate yesterday and I don’t think things will change facing Arizona’s ace on Saturday night. The pitchers: Miami turns to Caleb Smith, who is 4-5 with a 3.51 ERA. Smith is coming off back to back quality starts, allowing two earned runs over his last 13.5 innings of work. Smith has been a bright spot for the struggling Marlins this season, but I still think he’ll stumble here in this difficult venue. The Diamondbacks hand the ball to Zack Greinke, who is 3-4 with a 3.65 ERA. Most recently Greinke gave up two runs over six innings in an unfortunate loss to Oakland. Greinke though has been a complete “Jekyll and Hyde” hurler this year, going 1-4 with a 6.14 ERA on the road, compared to 2-0 with a 1.69 ERA at home. The pick: As mentioned above, the Marlins are struggling mightily at the plate, note that they’ve posted just 25 runs over the last seven days, ranking them 24th in the league in that span. Arizona is starting to show signs again and note that it’s 7-2 in its last nine after scoring ten or more runs in its previous outing. I think Greinke is the correct call here as I expect Miami to continue to struggle with its bats. Lay the price, play on the Diamondbacks. |
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06-02-18 | Golden Knights v. Capitals OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington hasn’t been to the Finals in 20 years, but it finally got over the hump by defeating its nemesis (Pittsburgh) and then posting a convincing seven-game series win over Tampa to advance. The Golden Knights of course are re-writing NHL history every night, advancing to the Cup Final in their very first year of existence. Las Vegas took Game 1 by a score of 6-4, before the Capitals then responded with 3-2 victory in Game 2. The goaltenders: The Knights turn to veteran Marc-Andre Fleury in net and he’s so far 13-4 with a 1.88 GAA in the playoffs. Washington sends Braden Holtby between the pipes and he’s 13-7 with a 2.19 GAA to this point. Other key figures: James Neal scored his fifth goal of the season for the Knights in Game 2 (the first of the contest), but Alexander Ovechkin quickly answered for the visitors with one himself, his 13th of the postseason. The pick: The Capitals come into this one averaging 3.48 goals per game in the playoffs, while allowing just 2.62. Vegas is averaging 3.06 goals in the postseason, while allowing 2.00. Whichever team’s goaltender plays better is likely going to win this series, but after the lower-scoring Game 2, I think the shift in venue will lead to a higher-scoring Game 3. And take it for what you will, but Vegas has seen the total go over the number in all seven games this year in trying to revenge a home loss against an opponent. Get ready for a lot of “red lights” in this one and play the over. |
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06-02-18 | Blue Jays -135 v. Tigers | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -135 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jays come in off a 5-2 series opening loss yesterday, as Jaime Garcia would fall behind early and he’d never be able to recover. With its ace heading to the mound today though, I think that Toronto is going to bounce back. The Jays were just swept by the Red Sox as well, so they’ll definitely be eager to back into the winners circle here. Detroit took two of three from the Angels and I think it’s now poised for a letdown after yesterday’s victory. The pitchers: Toronto turns to JA Happ who is 7-3 with a 3.84 ERA. Happ has posted three-straight victories, most recently he’d come out on top of the Phillies by holding them to three runs over seven innings of work. Over his last three starts he’s posted a sharp 23:5 K/W, while not allowing any home runs. Detroit hands the ball to Matt Boyd who is 3-4 with a 3.00 ERA. Boyd comes in off a win agains the Angels, allowing one run off two hits. Boyd though would need 102 total pitches to get through just five innings of work. The pick: Toronto is dealing with significant injuries right now, most notably to slugger Josh Donaldson. Detroit also has injury issues though, including to OF Leonys Martin (hamstring) and third baseman Jeimer Candelario (hand.) Take it for what you will, but the Jays are still 11-8 (+1.2 units) against clubs with losing records this season, while the Tigers are 14-17 (-1.3 units) against teams with losing records. As steady as Boyd has been this season, I’m still giving the nod to Happ in this matchup. I think the “hungrier” team finds a way to get the job done at the end of the night. Play on Toronto. |
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06-02-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 6 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh and St. Louis played to a lower-scoring under in the Pirates 4-0 victory yesterday and while this afternoon’s contest might have a few more runs than that, I still think that everything points to another “duel” on Saturday. The pitchers: The Pirates send Chad Kuhl to the mound and he’s 4-3 with a 3.94 ERA and 1.35 WHIP over 61.2 innings overall. In his most recent start Kuhl would hold the Cubs to one run over six innings. The Cardinals hand the ball to Luke Weaver, who is 3-5 with a 4.63 ERA and 1.29 WHIP over 58.1 innings of work. Weaver most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Weaver has had varying success against the Pirates throughout his limited time, holding them to six runs over 17 innings of work. The pick: Pittsburgh is averaging 4.73 runs per game, while the Cards are averaging 4.39. Take it for what you will, but I still think its worthy to note that Pittsburgh has seen the total dip under the number in five of its last seven after shutting out an opponent, while St. Louis has seen the total go under in six of its last ten after getting shutout. Both Kuhl and Weaver have looked brilliant at times this season and very pedestrian in others, but each comes in looking to take advantage of a couple line-ups that are currently struggling to produce. Play the under. |
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06-01-18 | Rangers v. Angels OVER 8.5 | Top | 0-6 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: LA comes into this one in third place in its division after splitting its last ten games overall. The Angels are 30-26, which sets them 4.5 games back of the Astros. The Rangers have won six of their last ten overall, but they’ll be eager to get untracked here after falling 6-1 in Seattle last night, splitting their four-game series with the M’s. The pitching matchup: Texas sends out the venerable Bartolo Colon, who is so far 2-2 with a 3.55 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over 11 appearances, nine starts this year. Colon most recently gave up three runs off five hits in a no-decision against the Royals. Colon faced the Angels already this season and he’d go three innings of relief and allow one run. Last year though Colon gave up nine runs off seven hits over 2.5 innings against LA. LA will hand the ball to 21-year old Jaime Barria, who is 4-1 with a 2.97 ERA over six starts this season. Barria’s peripherals though suggest that his early numbers are unsustainable, with a poor ground ball rate of 39.3 percent to go along with an 11.4 percent HR/FB rate. The pick: Barria could be in luck today though as LA has been mashing the ball of late, posting 11 home runs over its last seven games. Texas though is eager to get back on track here as well after last night’s poor effort. When you add it all up, this one has high-scoring “slug-fest” written all over it. Play the over. |
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06-01-18 | Pirates +1.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pirates would let one slip away last night, falling to the Cardinals 10-8 in extra innings. Pittsburgh has lost seven of ten, including two of three to St. Louis just last week. St. Louis though hasn’t had much success either of late, as last night’s victory pushes the team to 5-5 out of its last ten. The pitching matchup: Jameson Taillon gets the call for Pittsburgh and he’s so far 2-4 with a 4.53 ERA and 1.25 WHIP. Taillon has enjoyed varied success agains the Cardinals, going 1-1 with a 4.45 ERA over six starts, which includes going 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA in one outing at Busch Stadium. Miles Mikolas gets the nod for St. Louis and he’s 6-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over ten starts this season. That includes going 3-0 with a 1.53 ERA and 0.85 WHIP in four home outings. Over 47 career games in the big leagues though Mikolas is 10-7 with a 4.17 ERA, including 8-5 with a 4.37 ERA as a starter. The pick: The Pirates come into this one ranked eighth overall in the league by averaging 4.67 RPG, while also ranked seventh in hitting at .257 average. The Cardinals are averaging 4.28 RPG (ranked 20th) and hitting .240 as a club. Are Mikolas’s early numbers sustainable? I think immediate regression is upcoming and I look for the hungry Pirates to take advantage and atone for yesterday’s late inning collapse. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in this one. |
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06-01-18 | Red Sox +111 v. Astros | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston fell 4-2 last night, as Lance McCullers got the better of Drew Pomeranz. The Red Sox were coming off a sweep of the Blue Jays before falling 4-2 to the defending champs last night in the opener of this three game set. After splitting a four-game series with the Tribe, the Astros would then lose two of three to the Yanks previous to their matchup with Boston. I think it’s worthy to note that the revenge factor does come into play here, as Houston has now won seven of the last nine in the series. The pitching matchup: Boston is hoping that Chris Sale (5-2, 2.76 ERA) can bounce back from an uncharacteristically poor outing against the Braves last Sunday, giving up six runs off five hits over just 4.1 innings of work. The silver lining behind the poor outing though was that he’d go on to fan eight opponents. Gerrit Cole (5-1, 2.05) most recently gave up three earned runs off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision against the Indians on Sunday. The pick: Last year Cole was 12-12 with a 4.26 ERA for the Pirates, while Chris Sale was 17-8 with a 2.90 ERA. Cole is putting together a career campaign, but his early gains this season simply do not jive with his career numbers and regression seems imminent. I like Sale to bounce back from his latest effort and to at the very least match his counterpart today. And in a scenario like that, I look for the hard-hitting and revenge-minded Red Sox to do the rest. Play on Boston. |
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06-01-18 | Nationals -134 v. Braves | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -134 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Tanner Roark and Sean Newcomb battled in a pitchers duel in the Braves lower-scoring 4-2 win yesterday. Washington though had won six in a row and eight of nine before yesterday’s setback and suffice it to say, I’m expecting the hard-hitting visiting side to bounce back here. And previous to last night’s victory, the Braves had split a series with the Mets, including a 4-1 loss at home on Wednesday. The pitching matchup: Stephen Strasburg gets the nod for Washington. Strasburg is 6-4 with a 3.13 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. Strasburg has been sharp of late, going 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA and 1.09 WHIP with seven walks and 24 strikeouts over his last three starts. Strasburg has to be feeling confident here as he’s 11-9 with a 3.84 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, to go along with 44 walks compared to 183 strikeouts over 150 lifetime innings against ATL. And note that Strasburg has been even better at SunTrust Park by going 2-0 with a 2.45 ERA, 0.955 WHIP, three walks and and 21 strikeouts over 14.2 innings of work. Mike Foltynewicz is called upon to make this start by the home side. Foltynewicz is 5-3 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.283 WHIP. So far he’s posted 29 walks with 69 strikeouts over 60 innings. Over his last three starts Foltynewicz has gone 1-1 with a 1.00 ERA, 1.22 WHIP with ten walks and 22 strikeouts spanning 18 innings. However, Foltynewicz has struggled against the Nationals whenever he’s faced them, going 3-3 with a 4.89 ERA, 1.512 WHIP and 17 walks with 33 strikeouts over 42.1 innings of work. Also note that he’s been rather pedestrian at home throughout his career, going 6-6 with a 3.80 ERA, 1.458 WHIP and 39 walks with 101 strikeouts over 94.2 innings. The pick: Take it for what it is, but the Nationals are 20-12 (+4.4 units) in all night games this year, while Atlanta is just 18-19 (-1.2 units) in all night contests this season. The Braves have been better than advertised this year, but I’m not convinced that Foltynewicz has taken his play to “the next level.” Strasburg is firing on all cylinders though and I think he’s the correct call along with the revenge-minded Nationals. |
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05-31-18 | Marlins v. Padres OVER 7.5 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Marlins and Padres opened a four-game series on Memorial Day, entering as two last-place clubs (Miami in the NL East and San Diego in the NL West). The Marlins won 7-2 on Monday but the Padres have bounced back with consecutive wins, 9-5 on Tuesday and 3-2 last night, when they scored twice with one out in the ninth inning to pull out the one-run victory. The Marlins managed only three other hits in the loss (all singles), giving Miami its fifth loss in six contests (Marlins are now 20-35, 12 1/2 games out of first ). The 24-33 Padres are in last place but just 6 1/2 games out in the NL West and will now vie for the series win when they host the Marlins on Thursday for the finale of their four-game set. The pitching matchup: Lefty Wei-Yin Chen (1-2, 5.22 ERA) will get the nod for the Marlins, opposed by the Padres' Jordan Lyles (1-1, 3.83 ERA). Chen is coming off a strong outing against Washington on Saturday, however, he settled for a no-decision despite allowing just one run and three hits over a season-high 7 1/3 innings. He has yielded three runs over 17 innings in three starts (1.59 ERA) after being tagged for nine runs in three innings of a 13-4 road loss to the Chicago Cubs on May 9. Chen won his only career start against the Padres on June 13, 2016, even though he surrendered four runs in six innings at San Diego. Lyles has struggled since registering 10 strikeouts while allowing just one hit in 7 1/3 scoreless innings of a victory over Colorado on May 15, yielding nine runs over 10 1/3 innings in his last two starts. He was able to escape with no-decisions in both outings, despite giving up 14 hits and six walks (Sd actually won both contests). Lyles owns a 1-1 record and a ghastly 7.00 ERA in three starts and two relief appearances against Miami in his career. The pick: The highlight of Lyles' season was his second start on May 15 against the Rockies at Petco Park, when he was perfect for 7 1/3 innings, the second-longest perfect-game bid in franchise history. However, in his two starts since, Lyles has given up nine runs on 14 hits and six walks with eight strikeouts in 10 1/3 innings (7.84 ERA). What's more, Lyles will be making his sixth career appearance and fourth start against the Marlins on Thursday and he owns a 7.00 ERA, a 1.72 WHIP and a .292 opponents' batting average against Miami. Chen's numbers have improved drastically over his last three starts (see above) but I won't ignore his 5.22 ERA for the season. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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05-31-18 | Cavs v. Warriors OVER 214 | Top | 114-124 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
The set: It's the Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors in the NBA Finals for the fourth straight season, as the series begins Thursday night in Oakland at Oracle Arena. Golden State won its three home games by a total of 50 points in last year's Finals, avenging a dramatic 4-3 loss the previous year (led the series 3-1) with a 4-1 romp past the Cavaliers for its second championship in three seasons. The Cavaliers were seeded just fourth in the Eastern Conference and needed seven games to get past the Pacers in teh 1st round. Cleveland then shocked the top-seeded Raptors in a four-game sweep, before needing to win Games 6 and 7 in the conference finals to dispatch the Celtics. Meanwhile, Golden State lost two of three to Houston in the regular season and were relegated to second seeding behind the Rockets in the Western finals (Warriors won their first two series in five game). Like Cleveland, Golden State needed to win Games 6 and 7 to reach the NBA finals (Warriors won Games 1 and 7 in Houston). The Warriors and Cavaliers met twice in the regular season but the games came within a 21-day span in the first half of the season, with Golden State winning both. Golden State will be seeing Cleveland for the first time since the Cavaliers jettisoned almost half their roster at the trade deadline in order to bring in four Western imports, George Hill from Sacramento, Rodney Hood from Utah and Jordan Clarkson and Larry Nance Jr. from the Los Angeles Lakers. Both teams open with key players with questionable status. Cleveland: Kevin Love suffered a concussion in Friday's Game 6 of the Eastern Conference finals against the Boston Celtics and has yet to pass the protocol. Head coach Tyronn Lue doesn't know if he will be available. Love was seen on the practice floor Wednesday and Lue did indicate that he will start the contest if he is cleared to play. Love's presence is needed, as LBJ can't "do it alone" against this team. James is averaging 34.0-9.2-8.8 assists in a stellar postseason but only (Love 13.9 & 10.0) is in double figures among Cleveland's other players. Golden State: Veteran defensive stopper Andre Iguodala (left leg) will miss his fifth consecutive contest, leaving Golden State without a player who typically shadows James. "Well, he was MVP of the series in 2015, largely because he took that role on of guarding LeBron, but also because of what he did offensively," head coach Steve Kerr told reporters in reference to Iguodala's importance. Kerr said the duty of guarding James will be spread among at least four players, forwards Kevin Durant and Draymond Green and guards Klay Thompson and Shaun Livingston. The pick: Cleveland's defense has been shaky all season and Golden State's trio of Durant (29.0), Curry (24.8) and Thompson (20.5) don't figure to be contained. Cleveland comes in off the team's last three games averaging only 184.3 PPG. Meanwhile, Golden State, the NBA's highest scoring team, comes in off four straight unders with those contest averaging only 193.3 PPG. Expect that to change in Game 1. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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05-31-18 | Cubs -157 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Mets posted a 4-1 victory in Atlanta last night, as four relievers combined for four innings of one-run ball. New York jumped to an 11-1 start to the open the season but the Mets won for just the third time in 10 games Wednesday. New York sits 27-26 (4 1/2 games back in the NL East) as it opens a four-game home series with the Chicago Cubs at Citi Filed on Thursday night. The Cubs have averaged nearly six runs over their last 21 contests and have won five of their last seven on the road, although they squandered plenty of opportunities in Wednesday's 2-1 loss at Pittsburgh. After an inconsistent start to the season, Chicago's offense has come to life in May, with the Cubs now in second place in the NL Central at 29-25. However, they are 4 1/2 games back of the Milwaukee Brewers, whose 36-21 record is an NL-best. The pitching matchup: The Cubs will start lefty Jose Quintana (5-4, 4.78 ERA) and the Mets will counter with Seth Lugo (1-1, 2.48 ERA). Quintana has failed to get through five innings in three of his last five starts, issuing 15 walks over 26 innings in that span. He was pulled after just 4 1/3 innings last time out, allowing four runs and five hits in a 5-4 loss to San Francisco. The Cubs are a modest 6-4 in Quintana's 10 starts this season and he is 1-1 with a 1.93 ERA in only two career starts against New York. Lugo has been a valuable member of the Mets’ bullpen but will make a spot start after 20 appearances in relief. He worked 17 consecutive scoreless innings before allowing three runs in his last outing Monday at Atlanta. Lugo is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA in three career games (one start) against the Cubs. The pick: New York's bullpen has been a revolving door (4.29 ERA ranks 22nd) and while that bullpen came through last night, it will be tested again during a four-game series against the Cubs with Seth Lugo stepping out of his relief role to start on short rest in tonight's series opener. Quintana has struggled at home this season (6.66 ERA) but in five road starts, his ERA is 3.18. With Chicago's bats heating up (see above), I'll make Chicago a 10* play. |
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05-30-18 | Marlins v. Padres -120 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Two last-place teams, the Miami Marlins (NL East) and San Diego Padres (NL West), opened a four-game series Memorial Day at Petco. The Marlins won 7-2 on Monday, before the Padres answered with a 9-5 win last night. The teams continue their series tonight, with Miami checking in at 20-34 (12 games out in the NL East) and San Diego at 23-33 (7 1/2 games out in the NL West). The pitching matchup: Jose Urena (0-7, 4.69 ERA) takes the mound for Miami and will be opposed by San Diego lefty Clayton Richard (3-6, 4.97 ERA). Urena hopes to avoid becoming the first Miami Marlins pitcher to start a season 0-8 when he takes the mound in Wednesday's game. What a fall from grace! He was 14-7 (3.82 ERA) in 2017, as the Marlins went 17-11 (plus-$682) in his 28 starts, giving him MLB's 14th-best moneyline mark. However, the Marlins have lost all 11 games that Urena has started this season and going back to last Sep. 26, Miami has lost 13 straight Urena starts. That said, It's not Urena's fault. His 4.69 ERA is more respectable than his 0-7 record but when Urena starts, the Marlins have given him only 2.84 runs of support on average, the lowest mark in the National League among pitchers with 10 or more starts. In fact, between April 27 and May 15, Urena had a 2.84 ERA over the span of four starts. Richard saw his two-game winning streak come to an end last Friday, when he gave up four runs and four hits in six innings in a 4-1 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers. He has pitched at least seven innings and allowed three earned runs or fewer in three of his last four starts. Richard has gone 3-2 with a 2.79 ERA in six career starts against Miami but took the loss after giving up five runs over seven innings in his last meeting on Aug. 27, 2017. The pick: One can argue that Urena has deserved better and that's true. However, who wants to try to step in front of a 13-start losing streak? Especially, when one notes that Urena will be making his third career start against the Padres in this one and he hasn't had much success against them. Urena is 0-2 against the Padres with a 4.22 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP. The Padres are hitting .293 against Urena, who has allowed six runs (five earned) to San Diego on 12 hits and two walks with eight strikeouts in 10 2/3 innings. Both those starts were in Miami. Why should things go better here? As for Richard, in five starts against teams from outside the National League West this season, he has allowed 11 runs on 31 hits and five walks with 28 strikeouts in 37 innings, posting a 2.68 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Richard has not allowed a HR outside the division. Make San Diego a 10* play. |
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05-30-18 | Twins -139 v. Royals | Top | 8-11 | Loss | -139 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins won 8-5 at KC on Memorial Day but after Tuesday's 2-1 loss in 14 innings, they are just 1-5 in their last six games, scoring a total of seven runs in those five defeats. The 22-28 Twins and 19-36 Royals square off in the rubber match of the series, as the Royals seek consecutive home wins for the first time in nearly a month (beat the Tigers on May 3 & 4). The pitching matchup: A pair of rookies square off tonight, as Fernando Romero (2-1, 1.88 ERA) gets the nod for the Twins, opposed by the Royals' Brad Keller (1-1, 2.01 ERA). Romero suffered his first career loss Friday at Seattle despite limiting the Mariners to two runs and five hits in seven innings. The outing left him with a stellar 1.50 ERA in three road starts, during which he has registered 22 strikeouts in 18 innings. This marks Romero's sixth career start and he will be facing a divisional opponent for the first time. Keller will make his first career start in place of the injured Eric Skoglund after 21 relief appearances. The Rule 5 selection last pitched on Saturday, allowing his first run in nearly a month in a two-inning stint at Texas. Keller has a 1.80 ERA in 10 relief outings at home. The pick: Both young pitchers have excellent numbers but this mark's Keller's first start, compared to Romero making his sixth. Keller will be restricted to 50 to 60 pitches and the plan is to have Scott Barlow come in after Keller reached his pitch limit. Meanwhile, Romero has a 23-17 record in six minor-league seasons with a 2.83 ERA, 314 strikeouts and 102 walks in 324 1/3 innings. He entered the season as the Twins' No. 2 ranked prospect and owns a 1.88 ERA plus 1.12 WHIP, while opponents have hit just .194 against him in his first five career starts. Make the Twins an 8* play. |
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05-30-18 | Capitals v. Golden Knights -149 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -149 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Caps took a 4-3 lead early in the third period of Game 1 but the Golden Knights tied it very quickly. Vegas then went with Tomas Nosek's scored go-ahead goal midway into the third period and Nosek then added insurance into the empty net in Monday's 6-4 triumph. "We didn't play our best game," Capitals superstar captain Alex Ovechkin told reporters after his club's first contest since a Game 7 win over Tampa Bay on Wednesday. "I think next game is going to be different and all the nervousness, all the bad things (go) away (from) this game. We just have to forget about it and bounce back."both goaltenders came in red-hot but Fleury saved just 24 of 28 shots (.857) for Vegas, while Holby saved 28 of 33 shots (.848). Game 1 featured 10 goals and four lead changes and as the series turns to Game 2, these facts are known. Teams that take a 2-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Final are 46-5 (90.2 percent) when it comes to going on to eventually hoisting the Cup, while the odds drop to only 55.6 percent (15-12) for a team that loses Game 2 after winning Game 1. Washington: Tom Wilson's blindsided hit on Jonathan Marchessault did not result in a hearing with the NHL's Department of Player Safety on Tuesday, with the league citing that it was shoulder to shoulder rather than to the head and that it was in the flow of the game. Wilson had received a three-game suspension in the Eastern Conference semifinal series against Pittsburgh and said he has no plans to change his playing style. "You always have your reputation," Wilson told reporters. "When you play my physical style, you're going to have that reputation. I trust myself. I play the game hard. It's my job to bring that energy, that physicality. Right after he got up, he said 'good hit.'" Evgeny Kuznetsov notched an assist in the topsy-turvy series opener to extend his franchise-record postseason point streak to 11 games, during which the 26-year-old Russian has scored six goals and set up 10 others. T.J. Oshie set up a pair of goals in the series opener to push his point total to 13 (four goals, nine assists) in the past 12 games. Vegas: Nosek has just eight regular-season goals in 84 career contests but owns four points (three goals, one assist) in his last three games, while fellow fourth-liner Ryan Reaves has tallied in back-to-back contests for the first time since April 6 and 8, 2017. Reilly Smith continued his stellar postseason by scoring a goal and setting up another in the series opener, giving him 18 points (three goals, 15 assists) in 16 outings. Fellow forward Marchessault has done him one better with 19 points (eight goals, 11 assists), snapping a tie with New York Islanders' Jude Drouin (1975) and San Jose Sharks' Igor Larionov (1994) for the most with a franchise in its first-ever postseason. The pick: What made Game 1's high-scoring contest even more surprising was that Fleury had four shutouts and a .947 save percentage in his first 15 games of the playoffs, while Washington goalie Brayden Holtby came in off back-to-back shutouts against Tampa Bay and had a scoreless streak of 166 minutes and 42 seconds ended by a first period blast from the point by Vegas defenseman Colin Miller on the power play. I expect this game to be lower scoring but I see the same team coming out on top as in Game 1. Vegas has outscored the opposition 31-16 en route to posting a 7-1 mark at home in the playoffs, giving them a 36-10-3 mark on the season, outscoring opponents 3.61-to-2.41 GPG. Second verse, same as the first. Make Vegas a 10* play. |
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