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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-07-20 | Yankees v. Blue Jays -140 | Top | 7-12 | Win | 100 | 27 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yanks line-up is down a few key sluggers, while the Blue Jays are hitting the ball better right now than at any time over the last two years. This is a big AL East division series and divisional series almost always mean more to the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.66 ERA) who gave up four earned runs off five hits and a walk while striking out two over just two-thirds of inning in a loss to the Rays on Wednesday. Montgomery has for the most part been decent this season, but I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time and his last performance certainly doesn't bode well. The pick: Hyun-Jin Ryu (3-1, 2.72) gets the nod for Toronto and I think its ace will easily outduel his counterpart. Ryu most recently allowed a single run off five hits with two walks while striking out eight over six innings vs. the hard-hitting Rays on Wednesday. Ryu was 14-4 with a 2.32 ERA last season and this pick is primarily based upon the fact that I beleive he's going to go very deep into this contest. Ryu at this price is amazing and it's why this is my GAME OF THE YEAR. The is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on the Blue Jays. |
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09-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 21 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Considering the two gas cans on the mound this afternoon, I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. Both teams are coming off high-scoring contests on Sunday and each will be motivated to get back into the winners circle. The visitors hand the ball to Jose Urena (0-0, 0.00 ERA), who makes his first start of the year after a positive Covid 19 test. Urena will be a short leash today. The pick: Ian Anderson (0-0, 2.25) has a 14:3 K:BB over his first 12 innings of work, but clearly the sample size is still much too small for the Braves' rookie. I'll point out as well that ATL has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring ten or more runs in a victory in its previous outing. I expect both pitchers to get the hook early and as such, all signs point to the "over" as the correct call here. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Marlins/Braves. |
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09-06-20 | Rockets v. Lakers OVER 224 | Top | 109-117 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston looked great in Game 1, much better than I expected. The Lakers failed to guard the perimeter and the Rockets shot a high percentage from the floor and LA was never able to catch up. The Lakers lost their Game 1 matchup vs. the Blazers, before then rolling to four straight victories. The playoffs are all about making adjustments and I expect to see a much "quicker" Lakers team hit the floor on Sunday. Anthony Davis in particular was very quiet in Game 1, so I don't expect that to happen again. The pick: Additionally note that the Lakers have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 after scoring less than 100 points in a loss in their previous outing. I think Game 2 will be much more wide open, this one has "over" written all over it. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Rockets/Lakers. |
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09-06-20 | Stars v. Golden Knights UNDER 6 | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 33 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both the Stars and Knights blew 3-1 series leads before coming through in Game 7 to advance to this point. Vegas though has been more impressive to this point (of the remaining playoff teams it leads in shots per game (37.1), while also ranking first in the conference in goals-against-per-game (2.33)). Las Vegas ran into a super hot goaltender in Thatcher Demko The pick: The Stars lead the playoffs with 3.31 GPG average, but those numbers are a big skewed in my opinion. Las Vegas earned a 5-3 win over Dallas in the round robin stages and I expect a similar final outcome here in Game 1 as well. Vegas put 127 shots over its final three games vs. Vancouver, as stated above it just ran into a super hot netminder. Expect a decisive win and lay the price. The is a 10* TOTAL MONEY-BOMB on the UNDER Stars/Knights. |
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09-06-20 | Bucks +1.5 v. Heat | Top | 118-115 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: I don't believe the Bucks are going to get swept. I thought Milwaukee would win this series, but now the odds are against it for that happening. All of that said though, I think the Bucks will finally put together a full four quarter effort here and find a way to avoid getting swept. The Heat have won seven straight, but I think a letdown is inevitable. Miami's defense has been spectacular, but it's shooting percentage seems unsustainable to me over the long-term. The pick: Miami is also just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a five games or longer ATS/SU unbeaten streak. Also note that Milwaukee is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after three or more SU/ATS losses. Milwaukee plays with pride and pushes this one to a Game 5. The is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Milwaukee Bucks. |
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09-06-20 | White Sox -187 v. Royals | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 8 m | Show | |
The set-up: No need to overanlayze this one. The White Sox are rolling and I expect them to keep the foot on the gas here in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel (5-2, 2.42 ERA) who has a sharp 1.12 WHIP and 30:12 K:BB over 48.1 innings of work. Keuchel has been a rock in the ChiSox rotation and I think he'll easily get the better of his inconsistent counterpart this afternoon. The pick: Matt Harvey (0-0, 15.43) gets the nod for the Royals and he most recently was shelled for five runs off six hits with no K's over 1.1 innings on Tuesday. Harvey conceded three home runs to the Indians and I think he'll get the hook here early as well vs. this hard-hitting visting side. Considering the talent discrepancy on the mound, I'm laying the price and expecting an easy one here. The is a 6* ANNIHILATION on the Chicago White Sox. |
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09-06-20 | Blue Jays v. Red Sox UNDER 11 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -111 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston won 9-8 yesterday, but I think Sunday's total will sneak "under" once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray (1-4, 7.34 ERA), who gave up two runs (one earned) off four hits with four strikes over 3.1 innings in a 3-2 loss to the Marlins on Tuesday. 36 of his 48 pitches were thrown for a strike and I like Ray to continue his progression in this favorable matchup. The pick: The home side counters with Andrew Triggs (0-2, 16.20), who makes his first start for the Red Sox after being claimed off waivers from San Fran. Triggs has faced Toronto twice in his career and gone 0-0 with a 2.70 ERA over four innings of work. I'll point out as well that Boston has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 home games after scoring eight or more runs in a home victory in its last outing. This number is a tad high. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jays/Red Sox. |
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09-05-20 | Nuggets v. Clippers OVER 221.5 | Top | 110-101 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The "under" hit in Game 1, but I think Denver will come out firing and keep this one much more competitive. The Clippers looked dominant in their 120-97 victory. LA looked vulnerable at times in its six game series win over the Mavericks though, so it'l be wary to not have a letdown here. So far the Nuggets are averaging 108.4 PPG, while conceding 114.4, while the Clippers are averaging 125.7 PPG and allowing 114.1. The pick: Denver has played to back-to-back "unders," but it's still seen the "over" go 13-3 in the bubble. I think LA can easily reach 120 again, but this time I expect the Nuggets to keep it closer at the end. This one has "over" written all over it. The is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Denver/LA. |
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09-05-20 | Diamondbacks v. Giants -118 | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: Neither of these starting pitchers instills a lot of confidence, but Madison Bumgarner has been terrible for his new team and I think he'll struggle here vs. his old club. Arizona won 6-5 last night, but Bumgarner (0-3, 9.35 ERA) who has been activated off the ten day IL to face his former team. Bumgarner is likely to be under a pitch count tonight, which doesn't work well in his favor obviously. The pick: Trevor Cahill (0-0, 2.59) gets the nod for the Giants, who had his last start skipped over because of hip inflamation. Cahill has been given the green light to go tonight though and note that he owns a respectable 18 strikeouts over 14.1 innings of work. Finally note that San Fran is 7-2 in its last nine after allowing six or more runs in a one run home loss in its previous outing. The is an 8* LONG-BALL BLOWOUT on the San Francisco Giants. |
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09-05-20 | Nationals v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -129 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta won Game 1 of its double header with the defending champs yesterday 7-1, but then the Nats responded with 10-9 victory in the second. Considering the massive talent discrepancy between these two starting pitchers, I believe that the correct call is to take the Braves on the run line (-1.5), as I'm expecting a complete lop-sided victory for the home side. The visitors hand the ball to Erick Fedde (1-3, 4.71 ERA), who was shelled for six runs over six innings in a loss to Philly in his last outing. So far Fedde sports a disturbingly poor 10:11 K:BB. The pick: Max Fried (6-0, 1.60) is putting up Cy Young type numbers and while regression at some point is imminent, I do think he'll have more than enough to outduel his inconsistent coounterpart. Over 45 innings Fried owns a sharp 43:14 K:BB. Fried was 17-6 with a 4.02 ERA last year and he definitely also benefits from the friendly confines factor. Look for Fedde to get the hook early and hammer the Braves on the run-line on Saturday! The is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Braves RUN LINE. |
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09-05-20 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 9.5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's contest snuck "over" the number late (I had the "under" unfortunately), but I think that Saturday's contest will indeed stay below the posted number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Lucas Giolito (3-2, 3.14 ERA) who enters off an outing to forget vs. the Twins, allowing four runs (just two earned) while striking out eight over five innings. Note though that over his last three starts Giolito has allowed two earned runs while striking out 34 over 21 innings. The pick: Cris Bubic (0-4, 5.46) comes off his best start of the year, allowing two earned runs and striking out eight over 5.1 innings in an unfortunate no-decision vs. these very White Sox. Over 28 frames of work Bubic now sports a respectable 27:12 K:BB this season and I expect him to build off his last outing. With these two starters battling deep, this total goes "under" once it's all said and done. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. |
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09-05-20 | Middle Tennessee State v. Army -3.5 | Top | 0-42 | Win | 100 | 27 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: MTSU was 4-8 overall last year, while Army was 5-8. The Black Knights finished third in the country in rushing, as it lacked offensive punch through the air and struggled on the defensive end. MTSU's issues on offense were much bigger though and its inability to sustain drives would then lead to added pressure on the defense. MTSU uses a two QB system, with Asher O'Hara and Chase Cunningham splitting duties. The pick: Army averaged 28.5 PPG and it allowed 23 last season. Christian Anderson is the new QB, who will be leaning heavily upon returning RB Sandon McCoy, who had ten rushing TD's a year ago. MTSU should improve, but I think Army's relentless rushing attack, combined with its superior defense will see it pull away down the stretch for the comfortable cover. Lay the points. The is a 10* NON-CONF. BLOWOUT on Army. |
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09-04-20 | Rockets v. Lakers UNDER 226.5 | Top | 112-97 | Win | 100 | 29 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rockets had their hands full with the Thunder, who did everything they could to slow down the pace of their series. Houston now faces a Lakers team which finished as one of the best defensive clubs during the regular season. All of that said though, I definitely think that Game 1 sets up as a faster-paced contest and I look for this total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later. The pick: And note, recent and long-term history between the clubs would support this theory, as other than Houston's 113-97 win over the Lakers on August 6th in the bubble (which went "under" the number), their previous nine encounters had all flown "over" the posted number. I think LA benefits from the few extra days off, with Lebron and company getting the spring back into their legs. And I expect Houston to push the pace and shoot a lot of 3 balls. In the end and when you add it all up, all signs do indeed point to the "over" as the correct call in my opinion! The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Lakers. |
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09-04-20 | White Sox v. Royals UNDER 10 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's contest between these clubs flew well "over" the number in the ChiSox 11-6 victory, but I think that Friday's contest sets up as more of a "duel." The visitors go with Dane Dunning (0-0, 2.89 ERA) who faced these very Royals in his last outing, allowing one walk, no hits while striking out seven over five scoreless frames, unfortunate to receive a no-decision for his effort. Over two starts Dunning sas a 14:2 K:BB and I think he keeps the momentum rolling here. The pick: The home side counters with Brady Singer (1-3, 5.19), who allowed three runs with four strikeouts over five innings in a no-decision vs. these very White Sox last weekend. Dunning owns a decent 31:14 K:BB over 34.2 innings of work. I think these two young but hungry capable starters go into the latter frames and I believe that's going to help in driving this total "under" by the end of the night. The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER White Sox/Royals. |
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09-04-20 | Phillies +117 v. Mets | Top | 5-3 | Win | 117 | 11 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off wins. Each won late. The Phillies continue to roll after a 6-5 extra innings win over the Nats at home, while the Mets beat the Yanks 9-7 at home. NY is just 2-7 in its last nine after scoring nine or more runs in a victory at home in its last outing and I think it'll have difficulty containing this red hot visiting side. The Phillies go with Jake Arrieta (2-4, 6.49 ERA) who comes in off an outing to forget vs. the Braves on Sunday, allowing seven runs over 1.1 innings. Arrieta has to be feeling confident here though facing the Mets, as despite a 4-5 record, he sports a sharp 3.21 ERA in 14 career starts vs. them. The pick: Rick Porcello (1-4, 6.00) gets the nod for the home side and he's 3-3 with a 4.61 ERA in seven career starts vs. the Phillies. He faced them on August 16th and took a loss by allowing four runs off ten hits over six innings. I think the Phillies' momentum is real and getting "plus money" is a big bonus here. The is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Philadelphia Phillies. |
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09-04-20 | Bucks -5 v. Heat | Top | 100-115 | Loss | -106 | 33 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Do I think that the Miami Heat are a better team than the Milwaukee Bucks?! Of course not. I'll admit that Miami has definitely played a lot better than the Bucks to this point, but I think that'll finally change in Game 3. Giannis Antetokounmpo fouled Jimmy Butler with no time left on the clock in Game 2 and that's how the Bucks would lose. Clearly Giannis is going to be feeling responsible and I like the back-to-back MVP to come out and dominate in this game. The pick: And that's good news for the rest of the Bucks, who will finally have some room to operate. The Heat have been excellent, they could easily win this series, but I think they finally have a letdown here after playing at such a high-level for such an extended period of time. Milwaukee actually won the rebound battle in Game 2 (50-38). Look for the Bucks to finally hit their stride and lay the points with confidence. The is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Milwaukee Bucks. |
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09-04-20 | Stars v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 31 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the "over" is a great situational call here in Game 7. And that's because if one of these teams is down by two or more goals in the third period, they're going to pull the goaltender early. Regardless of that though, I'm expecting a much more wide open affair in Game 7. Colorado is injured and it's down to its third string goaltender. Dallas is injured and it's down to its second string netminder. The pick: Additionally note that the Stars have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 after back-to-back losses. For all the reasons listed above, play the over. The is a 10* TOTAL BLOCKBUSTER on the OVER Stars/Avs. |
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09-03-20 | Golden Knights v. Canucks +1.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 35 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Canucks won Game 5 by a score of 3-1 and while I do think they have a very legitimate shot at taking Game 6 outright as well, in a contest which I see being decided late or even in extra time, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. The Canucks have been committed to the defensive end in each of their two victories in this series and I expect a duplicate game-plan here. The pick: Other than experience, Las Vegas and Vancouver matchup extremely well on paper. I think the value is on this hungry underdog side. All signs point to this one being a nail-biter, so grab the 1.5 goals. The is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Canucks PUCK LINE. |
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09-03-20 | Nuggets +8 v. Clippers | 97-120 | Loss | -101 | 34 h 3 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Nuggets made adjustments against the Jazz and won three straight. Denver did it by domianting defensively and getting great play from star players Jamal Murray and Nikola Jokic. I think the "momentum" that Denver has created is a real, tangible factor and I believe it'll ride that wave to another solid performance here against the Clippers. LA also got better in its series vs. the Mavericks, but it was far from perfect. I also don't think the exrta few days off will help in LA's chemistry, which it was definitely lacking at times vs. Dallas. Denver on the other hand is firing on all cylinders at the most opportune of times and I think that definitely matters here. The pick: Note as well that Denver is 8-4 ATS in its last 12 after holding its previous opponent to 80 points or less, while LA is only 3-6 ATS in its last nine after a three-days or longer break between games. This spread is a little large in my opinion. The is an 8* ROUT on the Denver Nuggets. |
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09-03-20 | South Alabama +15 v. Southern Miss | Top | 32-21 | Win | 100 | 34 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: South Alabama was just 2-8 last year, but with QB Desmond Trotter back under center, along with most of the defensive unit, the Jaguars are expected to take a big step forward. Trogger had 820 yards passing with eight touchdowns and two interceptions in seven games. Four starters return to the offensive line as well. Trotter also has six of the Jag's top seven receivers returning. Also seven of the top eight defenders return. The pick: Southern Miss was 7-6 last year and senior QB Jack Abraham is back after completing nearly 68 percent of his chances, with 19 touchdowns and 15 interceptions. Abraham though lost five of his top seven pass receivers, and while the defense will be a strength of the team, the questions marks on the other side of the ball are a concern to open the season in my opinion. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on South Alabama. |
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09-03-20 | Flyers v. Islanders -113 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -113 | 32 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Flyers in Game 4, but in Game 5 I look for the deep and talented Islanders to finally get the job done here and punch their ticket to the next round. With a line like this, clearly the oddsmakers feel these teams are evenly matched. And they are in all honesty. Goaltenders are a wash, but I do think that New York's depth over its four lines will prove to be the difference maker in Game 6 The pick: Additionally note that the Islanders are 7-2 in their last nine after allowing four or more goals in an OT loss in their previous outing. I expect New York's most determined effort so far of the playoffs as it puts the final nail in the Flyers' playoff coffin! The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Islanders. |
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09-03-20 | Raptors -107 v. Celtics | Top | 104-103 | Win | 100 | 31 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: I've played on Toronto through each of the first two games of this series and while those two picks came up short, I think the stage is now set for the defending champs to make this second round series a "real" series with their best effort yet. Boston has done an incredibly good job of slowing down Toronto's shooters, while also doing just enough offensively to earn two straight victories. Nick Nurse is a hell of a coach though and I think he's going to make the necessary adjustments for Toronto to finally get back into the winners circle here. The pick: Additionally note that TO is 7-3 ATS in its last ten after back-to-back SU/ATS losses in the playoffs. Boston is also just 4-6 ATS in its last ten after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. I'm banking on the defending champs delivering with their best performance yet. The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Toronto Raptors. |
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09-03-20 | Nationals v. Phillies -150 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The Phillies are rolling right now and I think they offer great value in this spot to keep it rolling. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Anibal Sanchez (1-4, 6.90 ERA) who returned to the line-up on Saturday to face the Red Sox and allowed five runs off eight hits over four innings. To go along with his ballooned ERA, Sanchez also sports a poor 1.70 WHIP. The pick: Zach Eflin (2-1, 4.10) comes in off a win over the Braves on Saturday, going seven scoreless with eight strikeouts and zero walks. Eflin has gotten progressively better as the season has worn on and he enters with a sharp 37:8 K:BB over only 26.1 innings of work. Finally note that Philadelphia is 7-2 in its last nine home games following a shutout at home in its previous outing. Lay the price, expect a lop-sided win. The is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Philadelphia Phillies. |
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09-03-20 | Rangers v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston held on for a 2-1 win last night, but I think that the finale of this series sets up as more of a slug-fest. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (4-1, 1.93 ERA) who was shelled for four runs off five hits over six innings in a loss to the Dodgers on Saturday. Lynn has been sharp overall, but I don't think his early sparkling numbers are sustainable and regression is imminent again here in my opinion. The pick: The home side counters with Zack Greinke (2-0, 2.68), who has been sharp in his limited time. I'll point out though that Houston has seen the total eclipse the posted number in seven of its last nine home games after allowing one or less runs in a victory in its previous outing. I think this number is low, play the over. The is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Rangers/Astros. |
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09-02-20 | Thunder v. Rockets -5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the Thunder will have trouble keeping up with James Harden and company. The Beard is about to take over this game in my opinion and I don't think that Chris Paul and his supporting cast will have what it takes to win a third straight in this series. The pick: This one sets up great from a trend based stand point as well, as note that Houston is still 15-7 ATS in its last 22 vs. teams with a win percentage above .600, while OKC is just 1-5 ATS in its last six after a SU/ATS victory. I'm laying the points and expecting a dominant victory from start to finish. The is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Houston Rockets. |
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09-02-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 6 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 33 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado clearly isn't giving up after its impressive 6-3 win in Game 5. The Avs will look to extend this series to a Game 7, but while the last few contests have flown well above the number, I think that Game 6 finally sets up as a more defensive affair. Clearly these teams have been putting up some crazy offensive numbers of late, but I believe fatigue is now definitely a factor at this point. The pick: With Anton Khudobin in net for the Stars and Michael Hutchinson for the Avs, there's a sense of stability in net for both sides. Note as well that Colorado has seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back "overs." This number is indeed high. The is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Avs/Stars. |
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09-02-20 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The first two games of this series stayed under the number, but I believe the third will find a way to fly over as it comes down the stretch. Charlie Morton (1-1, 5.40 ERA) gets the call after coming off the IL for the visitors tonight. Morton has been poor this year with a 1.50 WHIP and I think he'll get the hook early here as well vs. this determined home side. The pick: Jordan Montgomery (2-1, 4.66) gets the call for New York and he most recently allowed three runs off five hits while striking out six over five innings in a loss to the Mets on Friday. Note though that the Yankees have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten home games after playing to back-to-back "unders" at home. This number is a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Yanks. |
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09-02-20 | Cardinals v. Reds -140 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: St. Louis embarrassed the Reds 16-2 in yesterday's series opener, but I like the home side to bounce back here. The visitors hand the ball to Johan Oviedo (0-0, 3.60 ERA) who has just been added to the rotation (out of necessity.) So far he's allowed four runs with four walks over ten innings of work in his rookie season. The pick: Tyler Mahle (0-0, 3.38) gets the call for the home side and he comes in off a gem vs. the Cubs on Friday, striking out 11, walking two and allowing two runs off two hits over seven innings for the victory. Mahle owns a sharp 32:10 K:BB and I think he's going to easily outduel his untested counterpart. Finally note that the Reds are 7-2 in their last nine after allowing 15 or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. I'm banking on a home side blowout from start to finish! The is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Reds. |
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09-02-20 | Heat v. Bucks OVER 221 | Top | 116-114 | Win | 100 | 32 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that from a situational stand point, this one sets up great as a higher-scoring affair. The Heat are 3-1 SU/ATS in this season series after taking Game 1 SU/ATS as an underdog. The Bucks will be on a mission here after being held to 11 points less than their playoff average in Game 1's loss. The pick: Milwuakee is averaging 114.2 PPG in the playoffs and the Heat are averaging 112. Miami got 115 in Game 1 and I believe it'll be able to duplicate that points total here again in Game 2 with what I expect to be a much faster-paced affair. This number is indeed a little low. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Heat/Bucks. |
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09-01-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets -1 | 78-80 | Win | 100 | 28 h 41 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Nuggets have won the last two games of this series and I believe the "momentum" they've created is very real. Behind the spectacular play of Jamal Murray, the Nuggets now have a chance to move onto the next round. Utah is going to be so worried about Murray now, that finally center Nikola Jokic is going to have room to operate here. With no crowd, "momentum" is a very real, tangible factor in the bubble and the Nuggets have all of it right now. The pick: Note as well that Utah is a poor 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU loss, while Denver is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. Bank on the Nuggets delivering in the clutch! The is a an 8* ANNIHILATION on the Denver Nuggets. |
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09-01-20 | White Sox v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's series opener flew over the number in the White Sox come from behind 8-5 win, but I expect a much lower-scoring "duel" here between White Sox' ace Dallas Keuchel (5-2, 2.70 ERA) and Michael Pineda (0-0, 0.00). Pineda finally makes his return after a 60 game suspension and he'll be given a full work load right out of the gates. Pineda threw a 70 pitch simulation recently and has been given the green light. Before his suspension he was one of the most consistent in the league and I think the time off for his arm will be huge moving forward. The pick: Keuchel gave up two runs over six innings while also striking out seven in a victory last time out and there's no reason not to believe that the southpaw won't carry that momentum over here. Finally note that Minnesota has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 home games after allowing eight or more runs in a home loss in its previous outing. This number is a little high. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER WhiteSox/Twins. |
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09-01-20 | Islanders v. Flyers +106 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 106 | 26 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Philly will extend this series at least one more game. Down 3-1, I like Philadelphia to give its best effort yet of this series. Much like the Avalanche did last night vs. the Stars. Dallas came back down to Earth last night and I believe that the same thing is going to happen to the Isles here. One team is desperate and the other is complacent. With a line like this, the oddsmakers believe this is a very even game, but the motivation levels/factor tip the scales in favor of the Flyers in my opinion. The pick: Additionally note that Philly is 7-2 in its last nine after a one-goal loss. The Flyers had a lead going into the third period last time out and messed up, but I don't expect that to happen again. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." The is a 10* BEST OF THE BEST on the Philadelphia Flyers. |
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09-01-20 | Nationals v. Phillies -142 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are moving in opposite directions right now and I expect that trend to continue here. The Phillies came from behing to knock off the Nats 8-6 last night. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin (2-2, 3.82 ERA), who has done decently this season and who has a good track record vs. the Phillies in his career as well. Philadelphia goes with ace Aaron Nola (3-2, 3.00) who has also done decently this season, but who has a pedestrian 5-6, 4.12 ERA lifetime record vs. the Nats. Despite how well Corbin has done against the Nationals in the past, I still think that Nola is undervalued by a lot in this matchup. The pick: Washington is a poor 1-6 in its last seven as an underdog and unfortunately for it, it will see no mercy from the .500 Phillies, who look to put the pedal to the metal over the next three weeks until the playoffs start: "It's go time," Rhys Hoskins said after last night's victory. "It's always good to be able to help the club win." This line should be a lot larger in my opinion. The is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Philadelphia Phillies. |
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09-01-20 | Celtics v. Raptors -115 | Top | 102-99 | Loss | -115 | 25 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes, Toronto is 0-2 SU/ATS vs. Boston in the bubble and just 4-6 SU/ATS the last ten in this series, but I still think the defending champs are going to bounce back in a big way here and get the job done. An 0-2 hole would be difficult to climb out of with no home crowd, so I'm expecting a full four quarter effort from Toronto here. The Raptors were still distracted by the recent stoppage and didn't look like their normal "selves" whatsover in that contest. I think Boston is a great team and I believe it has a very legitimate shot at winning this series, but I believe the overall situation definitely favors the Raptors here, who are 11-0 vs. all other competition in the bubble. The pick: Note that despite its recent difficult with Boston, Toronto is still 8-3 ATS the last 11 in this series, while Boston is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after a four-games or longer unbeaten streak. I think Toronto wins this game. The is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Raptors. |
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08-31-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: My NHL Playoff TOTAL OF THE YEAR was on the UNDER in this game last night and that was obviously a big time loser, with the Stars jumping out to an early lead and then holding on for the 5-4 win. The Stars have over-achieved to this point and a letdown is imminent in my opinion. Dallas got the job done in the regular season with tough defensive play and some of the best goaltending in the league. That's not been the case in the playoffs though, with its offense somehow coming to the fore. The pick:Colorado was one of the best in the regular season on both ends of the ice. The Avs will have to risk life and limb today to avoid the series loss and as such, I finally expect a lower-scoring contest in Game 5. Additionally note that Colorado has seen the total go UNDER in seven of its last ten after allowing five or more goals in a loss in its last outing. For all the reasons listed above, I'm on the "under" in this one. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Stars/Avs. |
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08-31-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +6 | Top | 100-104 | Win | 100 | 34 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder have looked great in this series at times and poor in others. The same can be said of the Rockets as well. Russell Westbrook only had 7 points for Houston last time out, but the Rockets still dominated from start to finish. Whether Westbrook has a better game or not, I still think that the Thunder will once again "dig deep" here (just like they did in Game's 1 and 2). Individual player matchups or coaching stratgies are meaningless at this point in my opinion, as the Thunder did in fact dominate this series during the regular season. These teams are evenly matched and I'm expecting a battle until the final horn. The pick: Note as well that that Thunder are 7-1 ATS in their last eight following a 30-points or greater loss in their previous outing. Expect OKC to dictate the tempo today and while I wouldn't be shocked by the outright upset, in the end I'm grabbing the points. The is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Thunder. |
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08-31-20 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 224 | Top | 115-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that Game 1 of this series will be a very defensive affair, with each team trying to establish itself and dictate the tempo. I don't think there's going to be any "feeling out" period as I expect each to play highly aggressive on the defensive end to try and send an early message. The Bucks are much more skilled in guarding the perimeter than the Pacers, so the Heat's three-point advantage it had in its last series is going to be nullified for the most part. The pick: Miami played great defense in its opening round as well, holding the Pacers to just 100.8 PPG. Milwaukee also looked stout defensively in its first round win, holding the Magic to an average of 107 PPG. This number is high. The is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Heat/Bucks. |
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08-31-20 | Orioles +165 v. Blue Jays | Top | 4-3 | Win | 165 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Toronto has won all six in this season series thus far, including three straight in this one. All good things have to come to end though and I believe that the over-achieving Jays finally have a letdown here, despite having the "better" starting pitcher on the mound tonight. Toronto has two walk off wins as well, including yesterday's 6-5 victory. It's been an exciting and "magical" season to this point for Toronto, but with a road-trip starting in Miami tomorrow and ending in Boston next weekend, I do indeed believe that Toronto will suffer a classic "letdown" here. The pick: Starting pitching is less relevant than its ever been in MLB and I think that's the case today. Note that Baltimore is 7-2 in its last nine AL road games following a three-games or longer losing streak as well. I'm banking on Toronto finally having a letdown here. The is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Baltimore Orioles. |
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08-30-20 | Avalanche v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 54 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams haven't been playing since Wednesday because of the protests and I think that after back-to-back higher-scoring games, that we'll finall see a lower-scoring one here. The last two games have been outliers, as seven of the past ten between the teams have gone "under" the number. The pick: The Stars' Anton Khudobin is 6-4 with a 2.59 GAA so far in the playoffs, while the Avalanches Pavel Francouz is 2-2 with a 2.69 GAA lifetime vs. the Stars. Look for these capable goaltenders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Avs/Stars. |
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08-30-20 | Mariners v. Angels UNDER 10 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game flew well over the number in LA's 16-3 victory, but I expect this one to stay under once it's all said and done. Griffin Canning (0-3, 4.88 ERA) will be eager to notch his first victory of the year here for the home side. Note that Canning has to be feeling pretty confident here as well, as he was a sharp 4-2 with a 3.83 ERA at home last year. The pick: Justin Dunn (2-1, 5.57) gets the nod for the home side and he enters off a gem vs. the Rangers on Sunday, allowing one hit and striking out six over six scoreless in the victory. Finally note that the M's have seen the total go under the number in 18 of their last 26 after allowing 15 or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is high. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Mariners/Angels. |
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08-30-20 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -117 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -117 | 5 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are under .500 and each still has aspirations of making it into the playoffs. Cueto is 2-0 with a 5.40 ERA and he's had plenty of success vs. the D-Backs throughout his career, I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Taylor Clarke is 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA and while he's had less succcess vs. the Giants in his career, note that he was at his best in all "day" games last season, going 3-1 with a 3.94 ERA. The pick: Additionally note that Arizona is 7-3 in its last ten after allowing five or more runs in a three run or greater home setback. I'm banking on the hungrier home side getting the job done in the finale here! The is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Arizona Diamondbacks. |
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08-30-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +10 | Top | 111-97 | Loss | -106 | 44 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Whether Kristaps Porzingis plays or not, I like Dallas to at the very least, keep this one close enough to easily cover with the large spread that it's been afforded here. The extra time off because of the BLM movement will definitely help in healing up Mavericks' star Luca Doncic's knee as well. Each team has looked great in this series and pedestrian at other times. Bottom line is though is that I feel that they're very evenly matched. The pick: Dallas is also 7-3 ATS in its last ten after allowing 150 points or more in a loss in its previous outing. Expect Doncic to put the Mavs on his back and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, all signs point to this one coming right down to the wire. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-30-20 | Celtics v. Raptors UNDER 216 | Top | 112-94 | Win | 100 | 42 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics, Raptors and Bucks. It's not hard to picture any of these three teams as the Eastern Conference representative. All three teams possess the talent and experience to take down the Eastern crown, but in this particular contest, I think the savvy call is on the UNDER. Both teams can score. Both teams can defend. But I simply feel that from a situational stand point, this one sets up as a highly defensive affair, where full court pressure is applied and players risk life and limb getting into shooting and passing lanes. The pick: Additionally note that Toronto has seen the total go UNDER the number in seven of its last ten playoff games after three or more days of rest. This number is just a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Celtics/Raptors. |
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08-29-20 | Golden Knights -190 v. Canucks | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 34 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like the Knights to bounce back from their worst game of the re-start and find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. The Knights dominated Game 1 and the Canucks responded in kind in Game 2. This is a series in which Las Vegas has dominated for the most part over the years and after that slight hiccup last time out, I expect this strong trend to continue. The pick: Las Vegas still had 40 shots on net in Game 2, but the Canucks would also block 40 shots. I still like Robin Lehner over Jacob Markstrom, who still has a 4.00 GAA vs. the Knights' lifetime. Up until Game 2, the Knights' looked flawless in their approach and for the most part were completely untested. I'm not going to give up on the favorite right now after one bad game, instead I think it'll add fuel to the fire here. Expect a similar outcome as what we saw Game 1 and lay the price with confidence. This is a 6* ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Las Vegas Knights. |
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08-29-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 223 | Top | 122-131 | Loss | -105 | 26 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lakers exploded for a 3-1 series lead in Game 4, but with star player Damian Lillard sidelined for the Blazers, I think that we'll see a much more defensive affair in Game 5, as the normally defensive minded Lakers "double down" on that end to finally crush the BLazers hopes out of existence. The pick: At this point, the Lakers have a firm grip on this series and the last thing they can afford to do at this point is play stupid. LA can't afford to have any star players get injured here. I look LA to body up and to slow this game down as it looks to control and dictate and get out of this one without any injuries. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Blazers/Lakers. |
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08-29-20 | Dodgers v. Rangers +143 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers won 6-2 last night and I think the home side will find a way to get the job done here as well on Saturday night. The disinterested visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling (3-1, 5.61 ERA) who allowed two runs off six hits over four innings in a no-decision vs. Colorado on Sunday. Stripling was "lucky" the damage wasn't worse, as the two runs were solo dingers. Note that over 29.2 innings of work Stripling has been shelled for ten home runs. The pick: The home side counters with ace Lance Lynn (4-0, 1.37) who enters on top form, most recently allowing two runs off five hits while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the A's on Monday. At some point Lynn will have a letdown, but I don't think that'll be vs. the league's No. 1 team. LA does indeed seem complacent and I don't trust Stripling at all in this hot Texas stadium. I'm banking on another upset in Texas tonight! The is a 10* ULTRA DESTRUCTION on the Texas Rangers. |
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08-29-20 | Magic +13.5 v. Bucks | Top | 104-118 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Orlando is getting a lot of points here. The Magic won Game 1 outright, but since then it's gone 0-3 SU/ATS vs. the surging Bucks. Do I think that the Magic are going to win this contest outright? I do not. Note though that Orlando has been just a single 3-point shot away in each of the last three games to actually cover the spread. And now it's getting more points in Game 5 than in any other to this point. The pick: The strengths and weaknesses are well known for each side, but note that the Bucks are just 2-5 ATS in their last seven following an ATS win, while the Magic are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 following a double-digit loss. Orlando's players are playing for a position on the team next year and I don't expect it to go down without a fight tonight. Grab the points. This is a 10* EXPRESS on the Orlando Magic. |
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08-29-20 | Indians v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday's high-scoring affair, I'm expecting much more a duel in the finale of this interleague contest. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Carrasco (2-2, 3.71 ERA) who gave up four runs off seven hits while striking out four over four innings in a setback to the Tigers on Sunday. Carrasco has a 35:15 K:BB and the veteran will look to bounce back here after a couple of pedestria outings. The pick: Joe Flaherty (2-0, 3.12) gets the nod for the hom eside and he most recently struck out three Royals over five scoreless to pick up his second win of the season on Monday. Last year Flaherty was 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA and now the hard-throwing right-hander has been given the green light to go deep into this contest. Finally note that St. Louis has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 13 or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. This one has "duel" written all over it. The is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Indians/Cardinals. |
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08-28-20 | Royals v. White Sox -140 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I don't have the usual amount of time today to spend on my analysis because of the events going on in sports. The pick: The White Sox lead the AL with 59 home runs in 31 games and Chicago pitching has posted a tiny 2.60 ERA since July 29th. The is a 10* ABSOLUTE DESTRUCTION on the Chicago White Sox. |
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08-26-20 | Avalanche -137 v. Stars | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 35 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado was a huge favorite in both Game's 1 and 2, but it's 0-2 in this series and now Game 3 is much closer to a "pick em." The Stars have looked great on both ends of the ice, but I think that the desperation in which Colorado plays with tonight will in the end be the difference maker. I don't expect Colorado to get swept and it'll be risking life and limb to try and avoid an 0-3 hole. The pick: Note as well that Colorado is 21-9-3 in their last 33 after getting outshot by its opponent, while Dallas is just 2-6 in its last eight after back-to-back victories on the road (technically, that's the case of course.) Look for this series to get a lot more interesting. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Colorado Avalanche. |
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08-26-20 | A's v. Rangers OVER 9.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -107 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game ended in a 10-3 win over the A's and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here in the finale of this series on Wednesday night. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Fiers (3-1, 5.81 ERA) who earned a win over the Angels by allowing three runs over 5.1 innings. It was the third time Fiers had the advantage of facing the Angels this year and it was his first win over them. Fiers enters with a poor 5.81 ERA and ballooned 1.55 WHIP. The pick: The home side counters with the volatile Kolby Allard (0-2, 7.82) who allowed four runs off five hits in a loss to the Mariners on Friday, unable to even get out of the first inning. Previous to that he conceded six runs in three innings to the Rockies. Note as well that Texas has interestingly seen the total go over the number in seven of its last 11 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in its previous outing. Look for these starters to get chased early and expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER A's/Rangers. |
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08-26-20 | Pirates +205 v. White Sox | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 22 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the White Sox stumble here in the finale of this interleague series and after yesterday's 4-0 victory. The Pirates hand the ball to "ace" Trevor Williams (1-4, 3.70 ERA) who gave up one run over four innings in an unfortunate loss to the Indians on Thursday. Through 24.1 innings of work so far Williams sports a sharp 23:8 K:BB ratio. The pick: Dallas Keuchel (4-2, 2.65) gets the nod for the home side and I just think that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time today. Note that Williams is 1-0 with a 3.00 ERA in two career starts vs. the White Sox. Additionally note that the Pirates are 6-3 in their last nine Interleague games after getting shutout in their previous outing. Great value on this hungry dog to bounce back and catch Chicago complacent! This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH ON THE DIAMOND on the Pittsburgh Pirates. |
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08-25-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights -204 | 5-2 | Loss | -204 | 32 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the "under" in Game 1, but for Game 2 I'm going to lay the price on the Golden Knights. I think Las Vegas is on a mission here and its recent experience over the last three years in the playoffs will see it sweep Vancouver. The Knights are getting superior play in all facets of the game right now and I expect that to continue here. Vancouver has done incredibly well and its season is already considered a success. Nothing less than a Stanley Cup will be a success for the Knights though. The pick: The Knights are also 7-0 in their last seven after scoring five or more goals in their previous outing. Robin Lehner looks unstoppable in net for Las Vegas as well, while Canucks netminder Jacob Markstrom is 2-6-1 with a 4.18 GAA liftime vs. Vancouver. Lay the price, expect a blowout! This is a 6* UPPER-SHELF BLOWOUT on the Golden Knights. |
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08-25-20 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks OVER 9 | Top | 5-4 | Push | 0 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's game went "under" the number, all signs point to Tuesday's contest going well "over." The visitors hand the ball to the erratic German Marquez (2-4, 4.38) who allowed ten earned runs off ten hits over five innings in a loss to the Astros on Thursday. That's his second straight loss. The pick: The home side counters with the volatile Alex Young (1-1, 4.50) who is in the rotation due to the injury to Madison Bumgarner. So far over 8.1 innings as a starter, Young has conceded three home runs. Note that Arizona has seen the total go over the number in eight of its last 12 as well after scoring two runs or less in a loss at home in its previous outing. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rockies/D-Backs. |
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08-25-20 | Mavs v. Clippers UNDER 236.5 | Top | 111-154 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The first game of this series went under the number, but the last three have all gone "over." I think that Game 5 sets up as more of a defensive affair though. These two teams are now fatigued for sure, especially after the Game 4 OT contest. These players aren't super human and I believe the bookmakers are slow in recognizing how exhausted these players will be tonight. The pick: Additionally note that Dallas has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to three or more straight "overs," while the Clippers have seen the total dip below in nine of their last 14 after allowing 125 points or more in a setback in their last outing. THis number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Mavericks/Clippers. |
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08-25-20 | A's v. Rangers +157 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers held on for a one run victory last night and I think they'll find a way to get the job done here as well. The vistors hand the ball to the out of form Sean Manaea (1-2, 6.39 ERA) who comes in off his first win of the year, allowing one run over five innings vs. the lowly D-Backs. Previous to that he'd allowed three or more runs in each of his first four starts. I'm not convinced Manaea is "all the way back" though. The pick: Kyle Gibson (1-2, 4.73) won't be lacking for motivation here after allowing five runs over five innings in a no-decision to the hard-hitting Padres on Thursday. Gibson was 13-7 with a 4.74 ERA for the Twins last year, but note that he was 8-4 with a 3.55 ERA before the All Star break. I like Gibson to outlast Manaea here and I love the Rangers to build off yesterday's victory. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOKE on the Texas Rangers. |
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08-25-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets +3 | Top | 107-117 | Win | 100 | 29 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: It's do or die for the Nuggets. The Jazz have looked great over their last two games, but I think Utah doesn't have that "killer instinct" in it and I look for it to struggle against this desperate Nuggets side. The Nuggets got 50 points from Jamal Murray in the 129-127 Game 4 setback. The pick: Utah shot almost 60% from the field in Game 4 and I simply don't see that happening again either. Additionally note that the Nuggets are 7-3 ATS in their last ten after allowing 125 points or more in a loss in their previous game, while the Jazz are just 4-16-2 ATS in their last 22 as a favorite. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Denver Nuggets. |
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08-24-20 | Stars v. Avalanche UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -110 | 33 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Previous to the Stars' 4-3 Game 1 victory, seven straight in these team's series had gone "under" the number and suffice it to say, I expect things to "return to the norm" in Game 2. Both teams like to wear the opposition down and then captalize on mistakes and after Game 1 sailed well over, I believe this trend of hard-hitting, lower-scoring "unders" continues in Game 2. Anton Khudobin had 28 saves in the Stars 5-3 win on Saturday and and despite being only 2-3 vs. Colorado all time, he still sports a sharp 2.12 GAA. The pick: Avs' goalie Philipp Grubauer is 5-0-1 with a 1.87 GAA and .922 save percentage in the playoffs. The Avs can get it done on both ends of the ice and during the regular season they gave up the fourth lowest quantity of goals (2.00 per game.) Expect these two top notch defensie units to play to a very defensive affiar in Game 2. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Stars/Avs. |
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08-24-20 | Lakers v. Blazers OVER 224.5 | Top | 135-115 | Win | 100 | 33 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: So far this total has gone "under" the number in all three games of this series, but I think that trend finally gets broken in Game 4. Mostly because I expect the Blazers to really get out and push the pace of this one. Portland is most effective when it shoots the three ball and stretches the Lakers' defense, which then in turn opens things up for Nurcic down low. The pick: Additionally note that LA has seen the total eclipse the number in 11 of its last 17 after seeing the total go "under" in three straight games. With the Blazers looking to push the pace, I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Lakers/Blazers. |
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08-24-20 | Royals v. Cardinals -165 | 3-9 | Win | 100 | 28 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Cards come off a 6-2 win over the Reds on Sunday, while the Royals fell 5-4 at home to the Twins. I think St. Louis is going to also find a way to get the job done in this matchup, as all signs point to the Royals faltering in this difficult road venue. The visitors go with Brad Keller (3-0, 0.00 ERA) who enters off another gem, going 6.2 scoreless and striking out five in a win over the Reds on Wednesday. That's now 17.2 scoreless innings so far for Keller this year. Can anyone say "imminent regression?" Last year Keller was 7-14 with a 4.19 ERA and that included going only 3-8 with a 4.98 ERA on the road. The pick: Jack Flahery (1-0, 3.12) counters for the home side and he gave up one run over 1.2 innings vs. the Cubs on Wednesday. Flaherty has been cleared to go today and remember, he was 11-8 with a 2.75 ERA last season, including 7-4 with a 2.38 ERA at home. I love Flaherty to continue his progression and I fully expect the over-achieving Keller to take a big step back. Lay it. This is a 6* TOP-DECK DESTRUCTION on the Cardinals. |
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08-24-20 | Marlins +121 v. Nationals | Top | 11-8 | Win | 121 | 26 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Off their 9-3 loss yesterday, I like the Marlins to bounce back here and pull off the slight upset. The visitors hand the ball to their "ace" Pablo Lopez (2-1, 2.42 ERA) who gave up two runs and one walk while striking out five over seven innings in an unfortunate no-decision. Lopez enters with one of the best ERA's in the National League. The pick: Austin Voth (0-2, 5.00) also comes off a no-decision, but a very fortunate one after he was rocked for five runs off nine hits over four innings vs. the Braves on Tuesday. Through 18 innings the right-hander has a pedestrian 12:6 K:BB and a poor 1.44 WHIP. Note as well that Washington is just 2-6 in its last eight after a five runs or greater victory in its previous outing. I'm banking on Lopez delivering here. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Miami Marlins. |
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08-24-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday's game "pushed" with the 9 total, I believe that Monday afternoon's game sets up as a "slug-fest." The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Tanner Roark (2-1, 4.76 ERA) who gave up two runs off nine hits over five innings in a victory over the lowly Orioles on Wednesday. Through four starts Roark enters with a pedestrian 15:10 K:BB and poor 1.71 WHIP. The pick: Blake Snell (2-0, 3.00) gets the nod for the home side and while he's been sharp early, I believe the southpaw is poised for regression. Note as well that Tampa has seen the total soar over the number in seven of its last ten after a one run victory and in which it scored five or more runs in. This number is a tad low. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the OVER Jays/Rays. |
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08-23-20 | Canucks v. Golden Knights UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 37 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: What's the first thing that comes to mind when you think about these two clubs? For many, it'll be high-flying, high-scoring offensive units. And that is definitely the case. But to do well in the regular season and advance into the playoffs, you also have to have good goaltending and once again, that's definitely the case with both of these teams. When the dust does settle at the end of the night, I expect these two red hot netminders to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. The pick: Note that Canucks goaltender Jacob Markstrom is 7-3 in the playoffs so far with a 2.44 GAA and .929 save percentage, while Knights' goalie Robin Lehner is 5-1 with a 2.44 GAA. I think Vancouver will be play extremely disciplined here as well vs. the opportunistic Knights. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Nucks/Vegas. |
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08-23-20 | Rockies v. Dodgers -210 | 3-11 | Win | 100 | 7 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm laying the price and expecting a beatdown here. The Dodgers held on for a 4-3 win last night, but I think they'll win more comfortably this evening. The visitors hand the ball to Antonio Senzatela (3-0, 2.90 ERA) who comes in off a gem vs. the Astros on Tuesday, going eight scoreless and striking out six. Is regression imminent for Senzatela? Last year he was 11-11 with a 6.71 ERA for Colorado, so you tell me! The pick: Ross Stripling (3-1, 5.61) was rocked in his last start, allowing seven runs off eight hits over three innings in a no-decision to the Mariners. Starts like that though have been few and far between for Stripling and note that he was 3-2 with a 3.13 ERA at home last year. I like Stripling to bounce back and come in razor focussed after his last poor outing, while I do finally expect Senzatela to take a step back here in this difficult road venue. Lay the price with confidence. This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the LA Dodgers. |
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08-23-20 | Clippers v. Mavs UNDER 232 | Top | 133-135 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The last two games of this series have blasted past the posted number, but I have more than enough reason to believe that Game 4 will finally be a bit slower-paced, which will ulimtately lead to this total staying well "under" once it's all said and done. The Mavs are down 2-1 and with an ankle injury to Luca Doncic last time out, I believe they're going to have to change up their game play "on the fly" here and try to body up and slow this one down. The pick: Additionally note Dallas has seen the total go under the number in 14 of its last 21 after allowing 130 points or more in back-to-back outings. I'm banking on Game 4 being a very aggressive and slower-paced "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* ULTIMATE O/U BEATDOWN on the UNDER Clippers/Mavs. |
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08-23-20 | White Sox +165 v. Cubs | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Yes, Yu Darvish has looked very good for the Cubs to start the season, but so too has Dylan Cease for the White Sox. Off their 7-4 win yesterday, I like the ChiSox to deliver the goods here as well. Cease (4-1, 3.16 ERA) allowed two runs over six innings with three K's in a victory over the Tigers on Tuesday. Cease enters on top form, having won his last four starts and posting three quality outings during that stretch. The pick: Darvish (4-1, 1.80) allowed one run off eight hits while striking out seven in a win over the Cardinals on Tuesday. Darvish appears as he's finally returning to his former dominant form which he had when he was a member of the Rangers, but regression is imminent in my opinion. Darvish was 6-8 with a 3.98 ERA last year and I think he'll finally stumble here. Look for the White Sox to build off yesterday's big win and let's grab up that PLUS MONEY! This is a 10* BALL-CRUSHER on the Chicago White Sox. |
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08-23-20 | Brewers v. Pirates UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Pirates in their upset yesterday and they went on to win in blowout fashion. Today though I think this contest will sneak "under" the number once it's all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Corbin Burnes (0-0, 3.00 ERA) who went five innings vs. the Twins last time out, allowing one run off one hit and striking out five in the unfortunate no-decision. The pick: JT Brubaker (0-0, 4.91) conceded three runs off three hits over three innings vs. the hard-hitting Indians on Tuesday, also receiving a no-decision. So far the rookie has a 10:6 K:BB and I think he'll be able to keep the Brewers off balance here. Additionally note that the Pirates have seen the total dip below the posted number in eight of their last 11 after scoring ten or more runs in their previous game. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Brewers/Pirates. |
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08-22-20 | Lakers v. Blazers OVER 225 | 116-108 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: Portland domianted Game 1 and LA domianted Game 2. So far though both games have fallen well below the posted number. LA was one of the best defensive teams in the league in the regular season, but I believe it'll have its hands full with this now re-focused Blazers team who I expect will be out to push the pace from start to finish as they look to get the ball into the hands of their shooting guards. The pick: These teams three regular season games all went "over" the number as well. LA center Anthony Davis looks unstoppable right now. Portland had a bad shooting night in Game 2, but I expect it to return to form here. Game 3 has "over" written all over it. This is a 9* SUPER TOTAL on the OVER Lakers/Blazers. |
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08-22-20 | Red Sox v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Yesterday's game ended with an 8-5 win for Boston and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well once the dust settles on Saturday night. The visitors hand the ball to Martin Perez (2-3, 4.07 ERA) who enters off a loss after allowing three runs over three innings vs. the Yanks on Monday. Perez enters with a 17:14 K:BB over 24.1 innings of work. NOte that he's 4-5 with a ballooned 5.19 ERA in ten starts vs. Baltimore as well. The pick: Alex Cobb (1-2, 3.76) was shelled for five runs off eight hits over 6.2 innings in a loss to the Jays on Monday. After a nine-game losing streak though, the Red Sox are starting to "rake" and I think Cobb will once again have difficulties today vs. this team that's clearly seeing the ball really well right now. This one has "over" written all over it. This is a 10* ULTIMATE SLUG-FEST on the OVER Red Sox/Orioles. |
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08-22-20 | Rockets v. Thunder +3.5 | 107-119 | Win | 100 | 28 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: Oklahoma City had won five straight ATS in this series before the two SU/ATS playoff losses to the Rockets. OKC is filled with talent and Houston has been dealing with injuries, so I'm a little surprised to this point. In fact in Game 2 the Thunder eneterd the fourth quarter with a 1 point lead, but they ended up losing by 13. The pick: Thunder guard Chris Paul was only 6 of 15 in Game 2 and I don't see that happening again. I'll still argue that the Thunder are the "deeper" team and I'll point out as well that they're 10-5 ATS in their last 15 following back-to-back losses, which includes a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. I'm grabbing the points. This is an 8* ULTIMATE BLOWOUT on the OKC Thunder. |
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08-22-20 | Brewers v. Pirates +154 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 154 | 23 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh won 7-2 yesterday afternoon and I think it'll find a way to get the job done on Saturay as well. The visitors hand the ball to Josh Lindblom (1-0, 6.62 ERA) who was rocked for five earned runs off three hits over five innings vs. the Cubs on Sunday, lucky to earn a no-decision. The pick: Derek Holland (0-1, 7.36) pitched two scoreless innings of relief on Tuesday vs. Cleveland and in 12 career appearances vs. Milwaukee (which includes three starts), Holland is 1-0 with a 2.05 ERA. I think the stage is definitely set for another upset here considering the fact that Pittsburgh is 7-3 in its last ten after a five runs or larger victory. This is a 10* WRONG-SIDE BOOK DESTROYER on the Pittsburgh Pirates. |
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08-22-20 | Pacers v. Heat OVER 214 | Top | 115-124 | Win | 100 | 44 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana played very well up until this point, but Miami's defense has so far been suprisingly good. That said, I'm now confident that that trend will end here finally. Indiana has now seen the total go under the number in five straight, including in both of these playoff games. The Heat have seen the total dip under in four of their last five. I thought the Pacers would have done much better against Miami, at least splitting out by this point. The Pacers are going to have to be the aggressors throughout again obviously. I'll point out as well that Indiana has seen the total go OVER the number in seven of its last ten after back-to-back UNDERS in the playoffs. The pick: I'll admit now, Jimmy Butler and the Heat are the tougher dog in this fight, but he'll be nervous here not to let his younger teammates have any sort of a letdown. I finally expect a wide open, faster-paced OVER in Game 3! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Pacers/Heat. |
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08-21-20 | Clippers v. Mavs +5 | Top | 130-122 | Loss | -110 | 31 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks could easily be up 2-0 in this series if star center Kristaps Porzingis wasn't ejected in the second period of Game 1. Dallas was clearly the better team in Game 2 and with the Clippers dealing with injuries to important players still, I have a hard time seeing LA keeping pace with this well oiled Mavericks team which is playing with a chip on its shoulder right now. The pick: LA is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as well after a ten points or larger loss in its last game. Does Dallas have a legitimate shot at winning Game 3 outright? With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe it does. And so do I. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-21-20 | Flyers -129 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: With a chance to finally put the Canadiens away, I like the Flyers to dig deep here in Game 6 and to dominate on both ends of the ice. Montreal has definitely defied the odds to make it this far, getting past the Penguins in the first round and then winning two games so far in this series. Montreal has had a hard time stringing back-to-back victories together though and facing this skilled Flyers team, I think that'll again be the case here. The pick: Additionally note that Philly is 8-3 in its last 11 after a two goals or larger loss and allowing five or more goals at the same time. The Flyers were a significant favorite heading into this series and I think we're getting the "better" team at a great price in Game 6. Lay it. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH ON THE ICE on the Flyers. |
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08-21-20 | Blue Jays v. Rays -158 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -158 | 26 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rays come off a great series in New York, including a 10-5 victory yesterday and I think they carry that momentum over here vs. a Jays side which played a double header at "home" vs. the Phillies yesterday, very satisfyingly winning both contests. Jays' starter Matt Shoemaker (0-1, 5.23 ERA) was ejected from his last start because of a verbal argument with the umpire. Before he got the boot he allowed three runs over four innings. The pick: Ryan Yarbrough (0-2, 4.13) went three scoreless vs. these very Jays before his game was suspended due to rain. These starters' numbers are similar, but I'm giving Yarbrough the big nod, especially considering how Shoemaker's last start ended. All signs point to the Rays extending their power streak. Lay this larger price with confidence. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Tampa Bay Rays. |
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08-21-20 | Nuggets v. Jazz +2 | Top | 87-124 | Win | 100 | 26 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver beat the Jazz in double OT in the regular seaosn and then it also managed to pull for an OT win in Game 1 of this series. The Jazz battled tough though and in Game 2 they laid down the 124-105 smack down and I think they can build off that victory with another one in Game 3. The pick: And guess what? Utah won Game 2 without the services of star guard Mike Conley, who now returns to the team after the birth of his son. Additionally note that the Jazz are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a 10 points or larger victory. Grab the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Utah Jazz. |
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08-20-20 | Diamondbacks v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 102 | 29 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played to a lower-scoring under in the A's 4-1 win last night and I believe we'll see a similar final combined score here as well. The D-Backs hand the ball to Alex Young (1-0, 3.86 ERA) who gave up one run off four hits while striking out five in an unfortunate no-decision to the Padres on Saturday. With Mad-Bum still sidelined with inury, I like Young to continue to make the most of his opportunity. The pick: The home side counters with Sean Manaea (0-2, 7.65) who is slowly getting back into shape, coming off his best start of the year so far, allowing three runs (two earned) off three hits while striking out five in a no-decision to the Giants on Saturday. I like Manaea to also continue his progression here. I expect these two hungry starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries.  This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER D-Backs/A's. |
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08-20-20 | Blazers +6 v. Lakers | 88-111 | Loss | -100 | 33 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Not many would disagree that the teams that doe the best in the playoffs are the one's that are exhibiting the best "chemistry." You can have all the talent in the World on paper, but if you aren't working together as a team, that talent often gets wasted or exploited by units which are playing at an extremely high level together. LA has struggled to cover the spread since the re-start and despite being down 0-1, I don't expect Damian Lillard and CJ McCollum to go easy in Game 2. The pick: Additionally note that LA is now 0-5 ATS in its last five conference quarter-final contests, while Portland is 7-3-1 ATS in its last 11 overall. Grab the points. This is an 8* SURE SHOT DESTRUCTION on the Blazers. |
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08-20-20 | Islanders v. Capitals -111 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -111 | 32 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Capitals to continue their climb out of the 0-3 hole and push this series to a Game 6. Alexander Ovechkin had two goals in Game 4 and I love this experienced Capitals side to now respond, while all signs point to a classic letdown here for the Isles in my opinion. The pick: Note as well that the Isles are just 2-7 in their last nine after a one goal loss in the playoffs in their previous outing. "Momentum" becomes almost a tangible factor in the playoffs and if the Capitals really wanted to "bow out" they would have done that in Game 4. Washington is going to try and pull off the impossible here, but it's one game at a time. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Washington Capitals. |
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08-20-20 | Astros v. Rockies -103 | Top | 10-8 | Loss | -103 | 22 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado lost 13-6 last night, but I think it'll bounce back here with what I believe to be the superior starter on the mound for it. THe visitors hand the ball to Cristian Javier (2-1, 2.91 ERA) who has been decent in the early going, having gone at least six frames in two of his last three starts. The sample size is still pretty small for Javier though and certainly he faces his stiffest test of the year in this difficult Park. The pick: German Marquez (2-3, 2.25) has yet to allow more than two earned runs in any start this year. Houston won the first two games of this four-game interleague series at home and then it routed last night. But Marquez was 5-2 at home last year and with a chip on his shoulder, I think he'll be the main reason why his team pulls out a victory in the series finale. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Rockies. |
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08-20-20 | Heat v. Pacers +4.5 | Top | 109-100 | Loss | -109 | 25 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana was swept in four games by the Celtics in the first round last year. So far the Pacers are only 1-4 vs. the Heat this season, including falling both SU and ATS in Game 1 of this series. Indiana is led by TJ Warren and with revenge on their minds, I believe the more experienced and hungrier Pacers will bounce back and deliver the goods here. The pick: Additionally I'll point out that Indiana has gone 10-4 ATS in its last 14 after losing by ten or more points in a playoff contest. Look for Indiana to at the very least, push Miami until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Indiana Pacers. |
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08-19-20 | Canucks +126 v. Blues | Top | 4-3 | Win | 126 | 32 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Canucks dominated the first two games of this series, but then the Blues managed to take Game 3 and then on the second game of the back to back, they also pulled out the Game 4. This series is all tied up now. Momentum is a funny thing, it has ebbs and flows and in this case, I believe Vancouver is going to come out firing and find a way to get the lead back in this series. The pick: These teams are very evenly matched (a sentiment clearly shared by the oddsmakers), but I'll point out that Vancouver is 7-2 in its last nine after back-to-back losses. Great value on this double revenge side! This is a 10* UPPER-SHELF DESTROYER on the Vancouver Canucks |
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08-19-20 | Rangers v. Padres -120 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 30 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Padres held on for a 6-4 win in Texas last night and I like them to do it again here at home. San Diego got out to a hot start, but a recent scuffling stretch will have it completely focused on the task at hand tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Lance Lynn (3-0, 1.11 ERA) who gave up two runs off two hits over nine innings in a complete game win over the Rockies on Friday. Regression is imminent at some point for Lynn and I think that time is now. The pick: Chris Paddack (2-2, 4.91) is looking to bounce back here after getting shelled for six runs by the Dodgers over four frames in his last start. While Paddack is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA on the road, he's 2-1 with a 3.14 ERA at home. Lynn's numbers are unsustainable, expect that regression tonight. Lay the price. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the San Diego Padres. |
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08-19-20 | Mavs +6 v. Clippers | Top | 127-114 | Win | 100 | 31 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavericks had an eight point lead half way through the third quarter of Game 1, and then big man Kristaps Porzingis got ejected and the Mavs fell apart mentally and failed to cover the spread in the end. Porzingis is back though in Game 2 and I do legitimately believe that Dallas has a chance at taking Game 2 outright. LA is still dealing with several key players missing and I think that catches up to them here. The pick: Additionally note that the Clippers are still a poor 2-6 ATS in their last eight playoff games as a favorite. In a contest which I see coming down to whichever team has its hands on the ball last, I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Dallas Mavericks. |
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08-19-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets UNDER 217.5 | 124-105 | Loss | -107 | 26 h 58 m | Show | |
The set-up: These two teams were two of the slowest paced clubs in the league in the regular season, but they've already played to two of the highest scoring games in the bubble so far, including in the Nuggets Game 1 OT victory. It may be hard to believe, but Denver has seen the total go over in every single game it's played in thus far (pushed twice) since the re-start. The Jazz are going to have to work hard to establish big man Rudy Gobert on offense moving forward and I now finally anticipate this total to fall under at the end of the night. The pick: Additionally note that Utah has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 after allowing 125 points or more in an OT loss in its previous game. This one has "under" written all over it. This is an 8* TOTAL BEATDOWN on the UNDER Jazz/Nuggets. |
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08-19-20 | Nets v. Raptors UNDER 226.5 | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 24 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The frist game of this series went well "over" the number in Toronto's 134-110 victory in Game 1 on Monday, but I think we'll see a much lower-scoring defensvie affair this time around. The Nets defied the odds to even make the playoffs, but after the Game 1 loss, clearly they're overmatched here and I think the team will simply go through the motions here. The pick: Additionally note that Brooklyn has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 after a loss by 20 points or more, while Toronto has seen the total dip below the posted number in ten of its last 16 after scoring 130 points or more in a playoff game. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Nets/Raptors. |
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08-19-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles UNDER 10 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling to find consistency at the starting pitchers position, but after yesterday's 8-7 win for the Jays, I expect a much lower-scoring duel on Wednesday. These two starters won't be lacking for motivation. The Jays' Tanner Roark (1-1, 6.00 ERA) has struggled against the Orioles in the past. The same can be said of Tommy Milone (1-2, 4.00) and the Jays. Despite that though, a couple of very strong O/U trends leads me to believe this one will indeed fall "under."Â The pick: As note that Toronto has seen the total go under in eight of its last 11 after scoring eight or more runs in a victory in its previous outing, while the O's have seen the total dip under in seven of their last nine after posting 15 or more runs combined with a team in their previous outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Jays/Orioles. |
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08-18-20 | Blazers v. Lakers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 100-93 | Win | 100 | 33 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: We've seen some really high-scoring games in the bubble and it wouldn't be hard to write a convincing argument for this total to fly over. Both teams are loaded with offensive talent and each likes to get out and push the pace. So why is Game 1 going to go under then? Despite all three regular season games between the clubs eclipsing the posted number, I believe the circumstances that each team finds itself in coming into this contest will help in driving this total below the posted number. The pick: I think the last thing LA wants to do though is to turn this into a "track meet." Yes big man Nurcis has been playing well for Portland, but LA has Dwight Howard, JaVale McGee and Anthony Davis ready to shut him down. Note that LA was third in defensive efficiency in the regular season and now that the playoffs are here, I look for the team to double down on that end and ride its strenght. Portland could be out of gas here as well after playing so hard over the first eight games to even qualify for the playoffs. When you add it all up, the under is definitely the correct call in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Blazers/Lakers. |
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08-18-20 | Capitals v. Islanders OVER 5 | Top | 3-2 | Push | 0 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: So far this series has been dominated by the Islanders, but I don't expect the Capitals to go down quietly. Before the pandemic started, the Caps were ranked No. 2 on offense. Down 3-0, the Capitals will need to push the pace from start to finish. This will leave the open and suscepitble on the back end though, as the defense will also have to push and play up throughout (that will in turn of course open up scoring opportunities for the opportunistic Islanders.)Â The pick: The first two games of this series went over the number and all signs point to a wide open affair here as well. Additionally note that the Caps have seen the total go over the number in seven of their last ten after three or more straight losses. This one flies over sooner, rather than later! This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the OVER Capitals/Islanders. |
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08-18-20 | Blue Jays v. Orioles +120 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -100 | 27 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Orioles to bounce back here after yesterday's 7-2 defeat. Toronto got the win despite slugger Bo Bichette out of the line-up with inury. Bichette will be out for a week or two and I don' think that's going to help this visiting side here. Toronto hands the ball to rookie Nate Pearson (0-0, 5.11 ERA), who has a big fast ball, but who is untested after just three big league games. The pick: Baltimore goes with Wade LeBlanc (1-0, 7.13), who benefits greatly from the fact that the O's are one of the AL's top offensive teams this year, as their .779 on-base-plus-slugging percentage ranks fifth in MLB. I like LeBlanc in this matchup and I think the Orioles' offense takes advantage. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Baltimore Orioles. |
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08-18-20 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 26 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams played a four-game series at the start of August and they split. Snell threw opposite Tanaka back on August 8th and he was under a pitch count at the time...he looked pretty good though, he went three scoreless, allowing no hits and two walks while striking out five. Snell is 1-0 with a 2.08 ERA this year so far, posting his first win of the season last time out, allowing four hits and going five scoreless in Boston, striking out six and walking none. And so with that stellar performance, Snell has been cleared to return to normal starter activity tonight. The pick: Tanaka was in a similar boat as Snell coming into the season...started on the IL because of concussion protocol after taking a come-back to the head in his final Spring tune-up. He threw 69 pitches opposite Snell and went five scoreless, allowing one hit, no walks and he also struck out five. And then in his last start Tanaka allowed two runs over four innings in a no-decision to the Braves. They weren't even close to 100% when they squared off on August 8th...they've both been cleared for full duties and they're each coming off a strong start. I think recent form is important. I think the UNDER is definitely the correct call in this one. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Rays/Yanks. |
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08-18-20 | Magic +10 v. Bucks | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 96 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I took this game early and have an unfavorable line, but I still love this play and while I'll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I do think the deep and talented Magic will easily keep this one close enough to cover with the ample points they've been afforded. Both teams were 3-5 in the bubble. The Bucks swept all four regular season games, but the Magic were dealing with several injuries to key players back then. Orlando has Vucevic back which is signficant, but is dealing with an injury to Aaron Gordon, meaning that Terrence Ross and Evan Fournier will have to step up here. The pick: I think the Bucks classically get caught a bit complacent in this very first game. Milwaukee is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a ten points or greater loss (fell 119-106 to the Grizz.) The odds are clearly against Orlando winning this series or this game, but if it has any shot, it will be in trying to pull off the upset in Game 1. As I stated off the top, I'm not calling for an outright upset, but I do expect this one to be competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAYOFF GAME OF THE YEAR on the Magic. |
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08-17-20 | Mavs +5 v. Clippers | Top | 110-118 | Loss | -105 | 79 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Clippers really deeper and more talented than the Mavericks? Both teams are dealing with injuries right now, but I'd argue that Montrezl Harell's absence for LA is the most significant. Also note that Patrick Beverley and Landry Shamet are both questionable for this one as well. The Mavs have a possible injury to Seth Curry, but guys like Tim Hardaway Jr and Trey Burke have been very steady for the Mavs. The pick: I'll point out as well that the Clippers are a devastatingly poor 8-22 ATS in their last 30 playoff games as a favorite. The Clippers supporting cast is banged up, while the Mavs have two stars in Luca Doncic and Kristaps Porzingis playing at their highest level of their careers. The outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Mavericks. |
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08-17-20 | Tigers v. White Sox -140 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The White Sox lost both games of their double header to the Cards on Saturday, but they bounced back with a 7-2 win in the finale on Sunday. I think the ChiSox keep that momentum rolling here in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to the volatile Matthew Boyd (0-2, 10.24 ERA) who faced these very White Sox last Wednesday and took the loss, getting shelled for seven runs off seven hits over 4.2 innings. In his previous outing he also gave up seven runs over 4.2 innings. The pick: The home side counters with Gio Gonzalez (0-1, 6.61) who looked decent vs. Detroit last week, allowing two runs over 4 2/3's innings, almost qualifying for the victory. The White Sox bullpen remains a strength as well, as Jimmy Cordero has conceded one of 33 inherited runners to score. All things considered, I think this is a great price on the hungry home side. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL BEATDOWN on the ChiSox. |
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08-17-20 | Jazz v. Nuggets OVER 215.5 | Top | 125-135 | Win | 100 | 21 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Gary Harris and Will Barton are both out for the Nuggets, but Jamal Murray has played well in their absence. The Nuggets also got big contributions from Michael Porter Jr. over the first eight games. The pick: The Jazz haven't looked great in the bubble, they went 3-5 SU and there was one point where they conceded over 125 points in three straight games. Utah lost 134-132 in OT to the Nuggets in early August and while this game won't reach that many points, I do expect another wide-open affair and for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the OVER Utah/Denver. |
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08-16-20 | Blues v. Canucks UNDER 5.5 | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 37 h 33 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think a little surprisingly, the first two games of this series have flown over the number. I think that from a situational stand point though that Game 3 sets up perfectly as a goaltenders battle, instead of a wide open "shootout." Firstly, the Blues need to slow the pace of this one down and try to control the tempo, as the speedier Canucks are skating them off the ice so far. I do indeed expect the defending champs to now try and turn this series into a "grindy" affair (much like the Blackhawks did on Saturday when their Game 3 fell way below the posted number, after the first two games went well above.)Â The pick: Additionally note that St. Louis has seen the total go under the number in eight of its last 11 after back-to-back playoff losses. Expect a hard-hitting, but ultimately lower-scoring Game 3. This is a 9* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Blues/Canucks. |
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08-16-20 | Flyers v. Canadiens OVER 5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -132 | 34 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: So far the first two games of this series have fallen UNDER the number (or pushed in Game 2, depending on the line you got), but now that the "feel out" stage is done between these clubs, I finally expect a much more wide-open affair in Game 3. Especially from the Flyers, as they now face their first adversity since the re-start. Philadelphia looked completely unstoppable up to this point, so the Flyers will clearly be looking to push the pace from the opening face off, until the final horn. And for the Habs, they've proven that they can easily score in this series as well. The pick: Additionally note that the Flyers have seen the total go OVER the number in eight of their last 11 after getting shutout and losing by five or more goals in their previous game. Don't be shocked if this one flies over sometime in the second period. This is a 10* EASTERN-CONFERENCE PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Flyers/Habs. |
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08-16-20 | Padres v. Diamondbacks +128 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 128 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona got out to a sluggish start to this abbreviated 60 game season, so the D-Backs have some work to do if they want a shot at the playoffs. Last night they came from behind to win 7-6 and I think they'll have an easier of time of it on Sunday. Garrett Richards (1-1, 3.74 ERA) has had a ton of success vs. the D-Backs in the past, but I simply feel that he's in the wrong place at the wrong time tonight (note that Arizona has scored 25 runs over its last three games.)Â The pick: Arizona starter Robbie Ray (1-2, 10.59) won't be lacking for motivation here obviously. Ray had a good spring tune-up as well, so his poor start to the regular season is a bit strange. He's 5-6 with a 4.40 ERA in 17 career starts vs. the Friars. The Padres are spiralling down the proverbial toilet right now with four straight losses and I believe they're primed to get swept in this series tonight. Great value on the hungry and under-valued home side. This is a 10* ULTIMATE BEST OF THE BEST on the D-Backs. |
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08-16-20 | Royals v. Twins OVER 9.5 | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -101 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Both games of yesterday's double-header went "under" the number. Double-headers this year only go seven innings, but despite that, I still think that the finale of this AL series sets up as a "slug-fest." Brady Singer (1-1, 4.50 ERA) earned a loss in his MLB debut by allowing four runs over five innings to the ChiSox, before then allowing two runs over five innings in a win over these very Twins last Friday. Now that Singer is on the road though, I think the rookie takes a predictable step back here, especially now that the Twins' have had a look at him. The pick: Randy Dobnak (3-1, 0.90) has so far been "lights out" for the Twins, most recently allowing one run in a win over Milwaukee. Are these numbers sustainable? Dobnak is throwing well right now, but regression also seems imminent to me and I expect that downward trend to start tonight. Additionally note that the Twins have seen the total go over the number in eight of their last 11 home games after two or more straight "unders." This number is a little low. This is a 10* ULTIMATE SLUG-FEST on the OVER Royals/Twins. |
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08-15-20 | Rangers v. Rockies UNDER 12.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 25 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams played to a lower-scoring "under" last night, with the Rangers coming out on top 3-2. While tonight's game could see a little more offense, I do still think that this number is much too high. Kyle Gibson (0-2, 4.11 ERA) gave up four runs off nine hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Monday. In his previous start he struck out nine in an unfortunate setback. The veteran was 13-7 with respectable 4.14 ERA for the Twins in 2019. The pick: German Marquez (2-2, 2.08) gets the call for the home side and he allowed five runs (just two earned) over seven innings in a loss to the Mariners as well. Marquez still owns a sharp 27:6 K:BB and there's no reason not to think that he won't be able to carry over that progression here. I expect these two competent starting pitchers to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Rangers/Rockies. |
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