For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
03-10-23 | Ohio State v. Michigan State -4.5 | Top | 68-58 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 50 m | Show |
Michigan State is rested. Ohio State is playing for the third time in as many days. I see no reason why not to lay what I consider a very short number in this Big 10 quarterfinal matchup.
These teams just met in the final regular season game. Michigan State won 84-78. The Spartans also won the first meeting, far more convincingly, 62-41.
Ohio State has covered five in a row, but this is a team that dropped 14 of 15 Big 10 games at one point. They haven’t been that convincing so far in this tournament, beating Wisconsin and Iowa by only eight and four points respectively. (They did lead Wisconsin big in the first half).
But tired legs are likely to be an issue here for the Buckeyes, who at one point failed to cover nine straight games in the regular season. Michigan State should be coming into the Big 10 Tournament on a four-game win streak. But they let one slip away in OT against Iowa. The three wins have all been by six points or greater. Sparty is rested here and has really had Ohio State’s number. 8* |
|||||||
03-10-23 | Mississippi State v. Alabama OVER 137 | Top | 49-72 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
Engulfed in controversy, top seed Alabama begins its SEC Tournament journey on Friday, facing a Mississippi State team that had to go to overtime yesterday to get by Florida.
It’s not always the case, but generally I like to look at the Under the game after a team went to overtime. Sometimes the betting public just looks at the final score and is unaware the game even went to OT. In the case of Miss State, the score was tied 57-57 at the end of regulation yesterday. That would have been an easy Under (total closed 131) if not for the extra five minutes of basketball.
Miss State has now gone Over in five straight, so this O/U line has been bet up. I don’t agree with that move at all.
Alabama is #4 in the country in defensive efficiency. Miss State is #6!
The Crimson Tide like to play fast (#2 in adjusted tempo), but Miss State goes very slow (#333 in adj tempo). If the Bulldogs are able to slow this game down, then it should be an easy Under. The last time these teams played, they combined for just 129 points and 8 for 43 shooting from three. (Bama won 66-63). 10* |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Utah Tech v. Southern Utah -4.5 | Top | 75-76 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
Southern Utah is going to be my 10* WAC Tourney Game of the Year as the Thunderbirds play Utah Tech in a quarterfinal matchup late Thursday.
Southern Utah is the #3 seed in this tourney and they got a bye into the quarterfinals by virtue of finishing the regular season with a 12-6 conference record. Only Utah Valley and Sam Houston State were better. Utah Tech is the 11-seed in this tournament and had to win yesterday just to get here. The only team that finished below Utah Tech in the WAC standings was New Mexico State, a program that had to forfeit its last seven games.
Utah Tech stunned Stephen F Austin in overtime last night with an 80-76 upset. It was just their fourth win over the last 12 games. I cannot see them winning two nights in a row. The last time the Trailblazers won back to back games was right after Christmas. Utah Tech is just 1-3-1 ATS its last five times off an ATS win. 10* |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Rockets v. Pacers OVER 236 | Top | 125-134 | Win | 100 | 8 h 32 m | Show |
Indiana has turned things around a bit by going 4-3 SU and 6-1 ATS over its last seven games. They have to love the fact that Houston, who has the worst record in the NBA, is up next on the schedule.
But I wouldn’t want to lay this many points with the Pacers. The Rockets also did just win a couple of games recently and that counts for something, even if both were against the Spurs.
Hard not to like the Over here as Indiana’s last game ended up 147-143 (loss to Philadelphia). There was no overtime.
Houston allows 121.3 points/game on the road, so the Pacers should have no problems scoring. Indiana can obviously be sieve as well. They allow 117.9 points/game for the year. So Houston should score too. 10* |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Devils v. Capitals OVER 6.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
New Jersey has no trouble scoring goals but their defense has been shaky lately and in spite of a 7-3 record they are still giving up too many goals. New Jersey has seen 7 straight games go over. Their main man in net, Vanacek, has struggled, with just an .821 save % in his last 5 starts. The Devils are one of the very best road teams, facing a Capitals team that is only barely over .500 at home. The Capitals haven't won many home games lately and are just 1-5 vs good teams. Kuemper has played well behind a very depleted Caps' defensive corps, but has been facing a ton of shots in recent action. As far as the Capitals' scoring goes, any time you have Ovechkin, you have potential for offense. I expect another high scoring game on Thursday. Take the Devils and Capitals to go over the total. |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Penn State v. Illinois -2.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
Illinois draws Penn State in the second round of the Big 10 Tournament on Thursday. The winner here will move on to face Northwestern, who looks to be a pretty “weak” two-seed, so the winner here could very well find themselves in the semifinals. I think the team that advances here is going to be Illinois, who I’ll lay the points with.
Penn State did close the regular season pretty strong by winning five of its last six games. The only one they lost, the Nittany Lions blew a 19-point lead at home to Rutgers. But PSU has certainly ended up on the right side of some close calls as well down the stretch. The last three wins have all come by four points or less and they needed a buzzer-beater to beat Maryland Sunday. The Nittany Lions were down as many as 16 in that one.
This is a double revenge spot for Illinois, who lost twice to Penn State in the regular season. The first time was back in December, 74-59 as a 10.5-point home favorite. Then they lost by 12 in State College (93-81) as a 3.5-point road favorite.
Looking at this number, we’re getting a great price on the Fighting Illini, who were favored by more on the road than they are now at a neutral setting. Now oddsmakers had to adjust based on the two regular season results. But Illinois is the better team here. Penn State went 24 of 52 from three in the two regular season meetings. They won’t shoot that well again tonight. Remember this tournament is played in Chicago, so it’s basically like a home game for Illinois. 10* |
|||||||
03-09-23 | Miami-OH v. Toledo -13.5 | Top | 75-91 | Win | 100 | 3 h 25 m | Show |
Toledo is the top seed in the MAC Tournament and begins its quest to capture the conference’s automatic NCAA Tournament berth with a quarterfinal matchup against 8-seed Miami Ohio.
Only the top eight seeds qualify for the MAC Tourney, so the RedHawks are the worst of the lot here in Cleveland. They went just 6-12 SU in conference play, a far cry from Toledo’s 16-2 SU mark.
The top seeded Rockets won both regular season meetings, by three on the road and by 18 at home. In each case, they closed as a double digit favorite as they are here. I’m not at all scared of this number.
Toledo is top 10 in the country in offensive efficiency and averages 85.7 points/game. Just way too much firepower for Miami to keep up. Over their last five games, the Rockets have averaged 92.4 points/game. Miami recently closed as a 1-point dog at Western Michigan and was barely favored at home over Bowling Green. Those are two teams that didn’t even qualify to be in Cleveland. This is a huge mismatch. 8* |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Texas Southern +2 v. Alcorn State | Top | 66-62 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
This is the quarterfinals of the SWAC Tournament with 1-seed Alcorn State taking on 8-seed Texas Southern. Right away, the fact the 1-seed is only a slight favorite should jump out to you. I’m all about fading Alcorn State in this tournament as the Braves have been one of the luckier teams in the entire country this season. They’re 15-2 SU L17 games, but that includes two overtime wins and five others by five points or less. One of the OT wins came against Texas Southern on January 14th. Alcorn State then captured the rematch 89-81 just a couple of weeks ago. Texas Southern went just 8 of 33 from three in those two games. While Texas Southern is on an 0-3 SU/ATS run entering the tournament, two of the losses were by four points or less. Bottom line: this is a matchup of two teams with misleading records. Alcorn State is NOT as good as its record while Texas Southern is certainly better than theirs. Alcorn State is only 5-8 ATS as a favorite. 10* |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Cavs v. Heat UNDER 214.5 | Top | 104-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Cleveland needed overtime to escape with a win over Boston on Monday. Normally, beating the Celtics would be cause for celebration. But because Boston chose to rest so many players for that game, the Cavs were left feeling more relieved than anything. Since that game went to OT, the 118-114 final score is a bit misleading. The game was tied 109-109 at the end of regulation.
These are the two top scoring defenses in the NBA. Cleveland allows 106.6 points/game while Miami allows 109.1. So I anticipate a low-scoring contest tonight. Miami got 59 points from its bench in a wild 130-128 win over Atlanta two nights ago. That’s certainly not happening again. 10* |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Wild +110 v. Jets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 110 | 20 h 3 m | Show |
The Wild just aren't giving up goals lately, and at 8-2 in their last 10 games, they usually score just enough to win. They are a top three defense for the season, but certainly tops in the league in the medium term, allowing just 9 measly goals in 8 games. Both goalies have been stand-outs. |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Wyoming +7.5 v. New Mexico | Top | 76-87 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
New Mexico, who was actually the last unbeaten team in the country at one point (14-0), is overvalued coming into the Mountain West Tournament because of their “must win” status. The Lobos faded badly down the stretch, losing 8 of their last 11 games. I don’t think there’s any reason to expect a massive turnaround this week. Now Wyoming, New Mexico’s 1st round opponent here in the MWC Tourney, had a terrible regular season. Plagued by injuries, the Cowboys finished last in the Mt West with a 4-14 SU conference record. But I believe they’re being undervalued in this spot. The Pokes played New Mexico tough in both regular season matchups. After losing to them by just a single point at home back in December, 76-75, they went to Albuquerque and pulled off a 70-56 upset as 10-point underdogs. Those who follow this conference know that winning at “The Pit” is no easy chore. Wyoming also recently beat a decent Nevada team in what was their final home game of the regular season. New Mexico’s defense has been really bad down the stretch and thus they are not a team you want to lay points with right now. If they do advance here, there may be some value on them as a dog. But not here. 10* |
|||||||
03-08-23 | Fresno State +2.5 v. Colorado State | Top | 65-67 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Fresno State has won just one of its last six Mountain West games, a 74-69 triumph at Air Force on 2/21 where they were 2.5 point dogs. But I like FSU here as their slow pace and solid guard play should work to their advantage against a Colorado State team that offers little in the way of rim protection. This is also a big revenge game for Fresno State, who has lost the last nine matchups with Colorado State and failed to cover any of the last 10. Looking at the matchup, there’s really no reason for the one-sided domination, which seems rather random. The last meeting ended up being a three-point game, 60-57. I expect this to be another low-scoring slog. It should be noted that Colorado State hasn’t topped 60 points in any of its last three games away from Fort Collins. Fresno State has been pretty unlucky all season when it comes to opponents shooting the three. Teams have hit 37.5% against them from behind the arc, but fortunately CSU shoots just 29.7% from distance away from home. I just don’t think you can trust Colorado State laying points, even a small number like this. Fresno State has averaged 94 points over its last two games, and while that’s skewed by facing Chicago State in the last game, I like the Bulldogs plus the points in this one. 8* |
|||||||
03-07-23 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Lakers | Top | 103-112 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 48 m | Show |
No Ja Morant for Memphis and no LeBron James for the Lakers. Who’s more likely to step up without their best player on Tuesday? The Lakers still have Anthony Davis, but I believe the Grizzlies remain the better team and thus am taking the points in this one. Memphis comes in having lost its last two games, both of which came on the road. They were blown out in Denver with Morant (113-97) then remained competitive against the Clippers without him (135-129). The Grizzlies are still second in the West, seven games behind the Nuggets but only one-half game ahead of Sacramento. So they can’t afford to drop another one. Keep in mind they dropped 51 points in the 3Q vs. the Clippers on Sunday and were up by as many as 16 points in that game. The Lakers just beat Golden State, as a 5-point dog Saturday, to make it five wins in the last seven games. But I’d still rate them as the third worst team in the West, especially without James in the lineup. I just think this is a great value on the better team Tuesday night. 10* |
|||||||
03-07-23 | North Dakota State v. Oral Roberts -10.5 | Top | 58-92 | Win | 100 | 14 h 53 m | Show |
Oral Roberts is the only team in the country that did not lose a conference game during the regular season. So it would be quite the shame if the Eagles failed to win the Summit League Tournament. Their resume probably isn’t good enough for an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney, so expect no letdown in tonight’s Conference Tournament final against North Dakota State.
North Dakota State upset South Dakota State, the 2-seed in this tournament, last night. The Bison are the 3-seed, but came into yesterday’s semifinal as a 5-point underdog with seemingly all the money on the other side. NDSU shot the lights out (56.1% for the game) and led by as many as 21 points!
I don’t see the Bison playing nearly as well tonight against what is, by far, the best team in the Summit League. It was an uncharacteristically narrow win for ORU yesterday, 70-65 as 13-point favorites (against St. Thomas). For the season, the Eagles have outscored conference foes by 16.3 points/game.
Oral Roberts won the two regular season meetings with North Dakota State, 92-69 and 74-66. We’re getting a “discount” on the spread here because a) it’s a tournament final and b) ORU has now failed to cover eight straight games. The Eagles are coming off an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from three (just 24%). Combine that with the likely shooting regression we’ll see from North Dakota State and it all adds up to a big win for the favorite tonight. 10* |
|||||||
03-07-23 | Golden Knights +137 v. Panthers | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 16 m | Show | |
The Golden Knights are on the road tonight against the Panthers. Vegas has won their last three games and are 7-3 in their last ten. They are one of the better teams on the road at 17-6 this season. The Knights' defensive prowess (8th rated) really shines in away games. They play a tough, tight-checking low-scoring and very effective style on the road. Adin Hill, Vegas's expected net-minder, has been very sharp lately, with a .936 save % in his last three games. The Knights have also won 5 of 6 recent games with Florida. The Panthers are 5-5 L10, and on the outside looking in as far as the play offs go at the moment. While the Panthers' offense is still viable, their defense has fallen all the way to 23rd in the league, and the PK to 27th. Tonight's likely net-minder Bobrobsky has been hit or miss in recent games. I am more than surprised at today's line. I favor the Golden Knights in this one. Jump on the underdog. |
|||||||
03-07-23 | Georgia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 146.5 | Top | 61-60 | Win | 100 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
The ACC was not particularly strong this season, so you can imagine the quality of teams we’re getting in the first round of the conference tournament. Georgia Tech finished 14-17 SU but the Yellow Jackets have covered the spread in eight straight games. Florida State is 9-22 SU and was pretty woeful down the stretch. The Seminoles are 2-9 SU and ATS L11 games. While I might lean to Ga Tech here, the Under is the better play. The Yellow Jackets’ last five DI games have all gone Over, thanks to them shooting far better than normal. They’ve averaged 79.8 points on 47.5% shooting. For the season, this team shoots below 40% away from home while averaging 65.9 points/game. FSU is no offensive juggernaut either. Expect them to struggle mightily at the offensive end as GT allows opponents to make just 29.9% of 3PA. The Under is 39-19-1 in the Seminoles’ previous 59 neutral site games. This number is far too high. 10* |
|||||||
03-06-23 | CS Sacramento v. Weber State -2 | Top | 64-70 | Win | 100 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
There’s already been a big shakeup in the Big Sky Conference Tournament with top seed Eastern Washington losing its first game. Northern Arizona and Montana State are already on to the semifinals and two more teams, including the winner of this game, will join them there tomorrow.
The winner here meets 2-seed Montana State in the semis. Weber State is the 3-seed while Sacramento State is the 6-seed. This is the first tournament game for both teams.
Weber State won the two regular season meetings, although both were close and very low scoring (50-48 and 52-49). It should be noted that Sacramento State is one of the 10 “slowest” paced teams in the country per adjusted tempo.
It also should be noted Sacramento State has just two wins in its last 10 games. One of those came in the last regular season game, 76-74 at Portland State, a game the Hornets won despite making just one three pointer. The difference was a couple of free throws with three seconds to go in regulation. This line just looks short to me, given that Weber State is obviously the better team. The Wildcats never lost back to back games all season in conference play. If this turns into a FT shooting contest, bid edge to Weber State, who makes 76% of their attempts from the charity stripe while Sacramento State hits only 69%. Lay the points. 10* |
|||||||
03-06-23 | Raptors +6.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 113-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Denver has won seven of eight (also 7-1 ATS) and just avenged the one SU loss during that stretch by routing Memphis (113-97) on Friday. But now is probably a good time to fade them as they’re laying a pretty big number to a Toronto team that has won six of eight games. The Raptors were also able to avenge a recent loss their last time out. In their case, they were playing with immediate revenge after losing to Washington 119-108 just two days prior. The second time around, also in DC, it was 116-109 with the game going to OT.
What was most impressive was that Washington shot 58% from three and the Raptors still won.
The Raptors’ road record (12-20 SU) isn’t great, but overall this is a team that is better than its record, having outscored opponents over the course of the season. The Nuggets are just 7-11 ATS this season when coming off three consecutive wins. 10* |
|||||||
03-06-23 | Senators -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 49 m | Show |
The Senators have won five straight games, each by two and often more goals. They won big in the trade deadline, and so far Chychrun seems to be adjusting well. The Blackhawks lost Kane, Domi and 3 other significant pieces. They've now lost 4 straight, managing just 6 goals scored while allowing 16. The Senators are just 3 points out of a wild card spot, and have a legitimate shot. This is a young team with considerable potential. The Blackhawks have dreams only of Bedard at this point. Ottawa has been winning on the road as well as at home lately. This is a game they should win easily. Take the Senators on the puck line at -1 1/2. |
|||||||
03-06-23 | Towson +6 v. College of Charleston | Top | 72-77 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
Let’s start today in the Colonial where Charleston takes on Towson in the second of two semifinals. Charleston is surprisingly NOT the top seed in the CAA Tourney, despite being considered the #1 team in the league all year long and winning its final seven regular season games. That honor went to Hofstra, who is playing in the other semi and is currently on a 12-game win streak.
Charleston did make it eight straight wins with a blowout of Stony Brook in the quarterfinals yesterday. That game was never competitive as the Cougars raced out to a 19-2 lead and never looked back. They actually only ended up shooting 38.2% overall and 27% from three.
Towson, Charleston’s opponent tonight, also had an easy time in the quarters with an 86-60 rout over Delaware. The Tigers shot nearly 60% from the field and were up 46-20 at halftime.
Towson played Charleston tough twice during the regular season, losing by only two and eight points. One of those went to OT and the other saw the Tigers up at the half. Towson went 2-0 ATS in the two meetings.
Towson is a Top 50 team nationally in three-point percentage and still managed to score 86 points yesterday despite finishing the game just 29% from beyond the arc. They hold teams to 42.3% shooting, second best in the CAA, and are also the league’s second best rebounding team. I’m taking the points in this one. 10* |
|||||||
03-05-23 | Grizzlies v. Clippers -6.5 | Top | 129-135 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
There’s a lot of hand wringing over the Clippers right now, deservedly so, as a team this talented should never really lose five in a row. But here we are and the Clips are just 33-33 on the year, leaving them 8th in the Western Conference standings. This is a team that came into the season as the odds on favorite to win the NBA Title.
Bookending the five-game losing streak are a pair of one-point losses to the Kings. One of them was the stunning 176-175 final that went to double OT. Two nights ago, they lost 128-127 in Sacramento.
There was another OT loss in the mix (at Denver on 2/26). So it’s not like LA is getting beaten badly. They probably should have won most of these games.
Memphis certainly didn’t deserve to win Friday when it visited Denver. The Grizzlies lost 113-97 as a 5.5-point dog. That was with Ja Morant, who is now suspended for two games. In addition to no Morant, the Grizzlies are also without Brandon Clarke (out for season with Achilles injury) and Dillon Brooks (also suspended). This is a get right game for the Clippers. 10* |
|||||||
03-05-23 | Texas State v. UL - Lafayette -6.5 | Top | 58-64 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
We’re down to the semifinals in the Sun Belt Tournament (taking place in Pensacola, FL) and there’s certainly been some upheaval along the way with two of the top three seeds losing yesterday (Southern Miss and Marshall). This chaos creates a bit of a clear path for Louisiana to nab to the SBC’s automatic NCAA Tournament bid. The Ragin’ Cajuns are the lone top three seed left here in Pensacola and will be facing 11-seed Texas State here in the semis. Texas State has now won three times in the last four days to get here. They upset 3-seed Marshall 71-68 (as an eight-point dog) yesterday. That was after outlasting Georgia State 81-76 in the first round and a very easy 65-36 win over Old Dominion in the second round. But the tank could very well be “running on empty” here. Louisiana, who beat Texas State twice during the regular season, has only had to win once yesterday. The Ragin Cajuns had no problems with Ga Southern on Saturday, winning 67-49 and covered the nine-point spread. After all upheaval this weekend in Pensacola, Texas State clearly stands out as the weakest of the four teams remaining. I’ve got the other three semifinalists (Louisiana, South Alabama, James Madison) all rated fairly evenly. Texas State is well below that trio. Tip your cap for what the Bobcats have done so far, but their run ends here in what should be a blowout defeat. They lost by a combined 28 points in the two regular season meetings with Louisiana, who has a top 55 offense. Lay the points. 10* |
|||||||
03-05-23 | Devils v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 135 | 9 h 33 m | Show |
This must be a dispirited Coyotes team at the moment. They have a depleted roster, losing their two top defensemen and a better than average center in Bjugstad. They were pummeled by the Canes last time out. Not to blame Vejmelka who has been heroic for the Coyotes this season, but his goals against avg. is 5.54 in his last 4 starts. The Devils are off a shoot-out loss to the Knights, so will be all in on Sunday. They are one of the very best road teams in the league at 22-4 this season. They are capable of some very good numbers these days, scoring 7 goals against both the Avs and Flyers. Adding the jewel of the trade deadline in Meier sure won't hurt the already formidable offense. In spite of the Coyotes' surprising success at home this year, they don't have much of a team to run out against New Jersey today. Take the Devils on the puck line at -1 1/2 |
|||||||
03-05-23 | Suns v. Mavs -1 | Top | 130-126 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 31 m | Show |
The NBA starts to get even more national TV time this time of year and we’ve got what looks to be a great matchup in the Western Conference early Sunday afternoon as Dallas hosts Phoenix.
In case you’ve been living under a rock, the Suns recently went out and got Kevin Durant. The Mavs got Durant’s former Brooklyn teammate Kyrie Irving.
The Suns have won in blowout fashion each of the two games since Durant joined the lineup. But those wins were against Charlotte and Chicago. This will be a much tougher matchup and not only is it the Suns’ fourth straight road game, it’s their third in the last five days.
While this may seem like a difficult matchup to handicap because of the recent drastic changes in makeup of the two teams, my view is that Dallas is a steal at this price at home. 8* |
|||||||
03-05-23 | San Francisco +3.5 v. Santa Clara | Top | 93-87 | Win | 100 | 13 h 36 m | Show |
We’ve reached the quarterfinals of the WCC Tournament where San Francisco will take on Santa Clara in the late game to determine who goes on to battle Gonzaga in one of Monday’s semifinals.
San Francisco had to win a game to get this far and had no problem doing it as the Dons easily downed Pacific last night 80-63 as a 9-point favorite. USF pulled away in the second half, thanks in large part to putting the “clamps down” defensively. They held Pacific to just 4 of 21 shooting from three.
Doing that against Santa Clara is a much tougher task, but fortunately the Dons are getting points here and the number looks to be inflated, probably because the underdogs are playing without rest. But, as we saw yesterday in the two OVC Conference Semis, rest can sometimes be overrated in these situations.
In fact, early money has come in on the dog, a move I agree with. This is a double revenge game for San Francisco, who lost both regular season meetings. So the Dons will be highly motivated to get the outright win. Despite those regular season results, I have these teams rated pretty evenly. Oddsmakers did as well installing each as a three-point favorite at home in the two regular season meetings. I actually think the time off works AGAINST Santa Clara here as they could very well come out rusty. 10* |
|||||||
03-04-23 | Rockets v. Spurs OVER 230.5 | Top | 122-110 | Win | 100 | 7 h 24 m | Show |
These are the two worst teams in the NBA. Houston is 13-49 and has lost 11 straight games. San Antonio actually has a worse point differential, but has won two straight (after losing 14 in a row) and is now 16-47 on the year.
I expect no defense to be played in this game. The Spurs are the worst defensive team in the league in terms of points allowed, giving up 122.0 per game. The Rockets aren’t far behind at 118.5 points/game allowed.
The Over has hit in five of the last six meetings between these two teams.
The Over is also 16-5 the Spurs’ last 21 times off an ATS win. (They not only won, but obviously covered their last game as a six-point home dog against Indiana). This is just the third time all season that the Spurs have gone Under in three straight games. They’ve never gone Under in four straight. 10* |
|||||||
03-04-23 | Blue Jackets v. Senators -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
The up and coming Senators have won four straight, including a convincing victory over the Rangers in their last game. They have been very good at home and will have their shiny new trade acquisition, Chychrun, on display on Saturday. The Blue Jackets lost a goalie and a solid defenseman at the deadline. Hutchison, fresh from the AHL, and the Vegas Knights system, will likely start in net. The Jackets have joined the less than ideal NHL 30-30 club, 30th in goals allowed and 30th in goals scored, that is. The Senators are finally reasonably healthy and are pressing for a wild card spot. This always was a team with potential and it is starting to show. The Jackets, by the way, are an ugly 7-17 on the road. Look for Ottawa to take it to a Blue Jackets team on a back to back road situation. Wager on the Senators on the puck line at -1 1/2. |
|||||||
03-04-23 | LSU v. Florida -7 | Top | 67-79 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
LSU has been abysmal in conference play, going just 2-15 with one of the wins coming all the way back on December 28th. Both wins are at home. So you can't like the Tigers’ chances Saturday in Gainesville.
Florida has won just three times over its last 10 games, but is still a rightful favorite in this matchup. They beat LSU by 11 in Baton Rouge on January 10th. The Gators were two-point favorites for that contest.
LSU hasn’t won a true road game all season (0-8) so this boils down to whether or not we want to lay the points with Florida. I do. LSU is 5-15-1 ATS its last 21 games overall and 4-17 ATS its last 21 Saturday games.
Florida has covered five straight games against teams with losing records. They also just won by 10 at Georgia earlier this week. I like to back home teams in the final game of the regular season and with LSU mired in a complete tailspin, Florida should roll.10* |
|||||||
03-04-23 | George Mason v. Richmond -2 | Top | 62-60 | Loss | -110 | 3 h 41 m | Show |
It’s been a disappointing season overall for Richmond, who comes into the final game of the regular season sporting a 14-16 overall SU record including 7-10 SU in conference play. Both the vast majority of those losses have occurred on the road. At home, the Spiders are 12-3 SU.
So I like them laying a short number to George Mason Saturday. GMU is probably a touch overvalued right now as they’re on a five-game win streak. The last three wins have all been by six points or less.
This is also a revenge spot for Richmond as they lost by 4 points at GMU back on New Year’s Eve.
The Spiders have won each of their last three home games, beating Fordham, Loyola and St. Louis. Fordham and St. Louis are two of the top four teams in the A-10. George Mason is coming off an OT win where their opponents (Fordham) shot just 3 of 25 from three-point range. The Patriots have just three true road wins all season and average only 64.1 points/game away from home. 8* |
|||||||
03-03-23 | Pelicans +4.5 v. Warriors | Top | 99-108 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Even though they’ve won and covered four straight, I don’t like this spot at all for Golden State. The Warriors played last night and were 115-91 winners over the Clippers. While they ended up winning comfortably, this is still the second night of a back to back and there’s still no Steph Curry.
With a final score of 115-91, you would think that the Warriors coasted Thursday. But they were actually down by 11 at the half! The Dubs were very fortunate that the Clippers finished 9 of 43 from three-point range, including missing 18 of 19 to start the second half.
New Orleans is shorthanded at the moment as well, but rested and coming off a 121-110 win over Portland. The Pelicans are 2-0 vs. the Warriors in this 2022-23 season, both teams beating Golden State when they were in the second night of a back to back, which is again the case here.
While it was back in November and the Warriors rested multiple starters, the last time these teams played, New Orleans won by 45. This has all the makings of a spot where Golden State “phones it in.” New Orleans, currently 10th in the West, can’t afford to do that and will be the more motivated side tonight. Take the points. 8* |
|||||||
03-03-23 | Jets v. Oilers -147 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
The Oilers and their new defenseman both impressed in a one-sided 5-2 victory over the Leafs. They are at home to the Jets on Friday. Winnipeg has lost 4 straight, and has allowed 15 goals in their last 3 games, a very poor showing for a defense-first team like the Jets. Winnipeg broke out for 5 goals in their last game but previous to that one, they had scored just six goals in six games. The Oilers don't lack for offense, sitting first in goals scored and PP. It is the defense, or lack of it that can cause problems (20th G.A., 25th PK). The Jets are barely over .500 on the road this year and their recent play does not inspire confidence. Connor McDavid has been absolutely on fire, while Jets star net-minder Hellebuyck has struggled in his last two appearances. Give me the Oilers to win on Friday. |
|||||||
03-03-23 | California Baptist +6.5 v. Southern Utah | Top | 71-81 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Cal Baptist and Southern Utah wrap up their regular seasons Friday before heading to the WAC Tournament next week. Seeding for the WAC Tournament is unusual in that it is not based on conference record, but rather an advanced analytic metric that incorporates conference and non-conference performance.
One of many reasons I wouldn’t want to lay points with Southern Utah here is that the Thunderbirds have lost two straight; 64-57 at Sam Houston State and 83-78 at home to Grand Canyon. Overall, SUU is just 3-4 SU its last seven games.
Cal Baptist also has revenge. They lost as 2.5-point home favorites to Southern Utah back on Feb 1. The final score of that game was 72-71. That game was decided on an “old-fashioned” three-point play with one minute left. Neither team scored after that with Cal Baptist missed the potential GW jumper as time expired.
Given that Cal Baptist was favored in that first meeting, I do not understand why they’d be getting so many points in this rematch. There’s a big difference in the tempo these teams like to play at as Southern Utah plays fast while Cal Baptist plays slow. Look for the underdog to limit possessions in this game, helping them to (at the very least) stay within the number. 8* |
|||||||
03-03-23 | Winthrop v. Radford -1.5 | Top | 69-78 | Win | 100 | 13 h 40 m | Show |
This is quarterfinal action in the Big South Tournament, the last of four games to be played in Charlotte today. Radford is the tournament’s 2-seed while Winthrop is the 7-seed.
Radford comes into the Conference Tournament on an 0-4 ATS slide, but did win their last regular season game, 67-65 over Campbell. Earlier in the year, the Highlanders rattled off nine straight wins, a streak which included two wins over Winthrop - by 14 on the road and by 3 at home.
Winthrop comes in on a four-game SU win streak (3-1 ATS), but their last three games were all against teams that finished bottom four in the conference and had to play in the first round of the tournament. The Eagles definitely can score (averaging 82.0 points L5 games) but they are also very poor defensively (349th in efficiency) and turn the ball over quite a bit.
Radford likes to play slow and held Winthrop to an average of 59 points in the two regular season matchups. Winthrop’s recent scoring surge was already likely to have a downturn, considering they averaged 73.9 points/game for the season. Facing a team like Radford only expedites that expected downturn. Getting Villanova transfer Bryan Antoine back should be big for Radford. Antonie missed the final three regular season games. He and DaQuan Smith form one of the better 1-2 combos in this league. Winthrop’s turnover issues will come back to bite them tonight as Radford forces teams to turn it over on 21% of all possessions. Number is way too short here. 10* |
|||||||
03-03-23 | Magic v. Hornets OVER 227 | Top | 117-106 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Charlotte comes into Friday night’s home game vs. Orlando having gone Under in five straight. While much of the focus right now is on how the Hornets’ offense will perform without Lonzo Ball (out for the season), looking at recent results it’s actually been the Hornets’ defense that’s primarily responsible for the string of Unders.
Over those last five games, the Hornets have allowed an average of just 107.4 points/game. This is well below their season average of 118.2 points/game allowed. Needless to say, I believe defensive regression is on the horizon for Charlotte.
At the offensive end, where they put up just 91 points in a loss to Phoenix Wednesday, the Hornets get a favorable matchup here facing an Orlando team that has allowed 121 or more points in each of its last three losses. Wednesday saw the Magic give up 139 to Milwaukee.
Charlotte may not be Milwaukee, but they did shoot well (54.3%) the last time they faced Orlando. That game ended up as a 119-113 final, won by the Magic, who were two-point underdogs. No matter who comes out ahead this time, I expect this game to make it Over the total. Charlotte is 4-0 to the Over the last four times they’ve been off a double digit loss at home. This O/U is much lower than where the number closed (236.5) for last month’s meeting. 10* |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Pacers v. Spurs OVER 238 | Top | 99-110 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
In what was the final game of their annual “Rodeo Road Trip,” the Spurs ended a 16-game losing streak on Tuesday by beating the shorthanded Jazz 102-94 as 9.5-point underdogs. Not only was it San Antonio’s first road win since December, it also marked the first time this season that they won a game in which they were trailing entering the fourth quarter!
The rare SU victory was largely a byproduct of the Jazz not just being shorthanded, but also shooting a season-low 35.3% from the floor. I am not expecting the Spurs to repeat that kind of effort on the defensive end tonight as they are dead last in the league in defensive efficiency.
The Jazz made just five field goals the entire fourth quarter against a team that allows 122.4 points/game for the season.
Indiana has covered four straight with the only SU loss coming in OT against Boston (142-138). But they too carry a bottom five defensive rating. So I’m expecting a real high-scoring affair tonight in the Alamo. In the first home game back after such a long trip, I can’t imagine San Antonio will play anything close to “good defense.” When these teams met back in the second game of the season, the final score was 137-134 and there was no overtime! Indiana is coming off a 124-122 win against Dallas. Something else to consider: both of these teams are top four in the league in pace. So there’s going to be plenty of possessions, not much defense and it’s not like this O/U is uncharacteristic for either team. 10* |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Seattle Kraken -105 v. Red Wings | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
The Red Wings have lost 3 straight, essentially putting paid to their play-off chances. They have been outscored 15-3 in those three games. Detroit traded away a top tier defenseman on Wednesday and other players may soon follow. With Hronek gone, that defense has taken a step backward. The Kraken are expected to stand pat so no trade turmoil to deal with as we head up to the deadline. The Kraken are a very good road team with a very solid offense. I expect the Red Wings to be off their game as more trades arise in the next day or so. Seattle beat Detroit just 10 days ago. The Kraken are still in position for their first venture into the play-offs. Look for all out effort on Thursday as the Kraken win on the road. |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Predators v. Panthers -165 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -165 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The Predators have essentially gutted their team, losing Ekholm, Jeannot, Niedereiter, and Granlund so far to trades. There could still be more players to fall. The Preds will be in something like a a state of shock today. Meanwhile the Panthers, off a 4-1 victory over the Lightning, have so far not engaged in the trading frenzy. Florida is a good home team with a fine offense, who will look to revenge a recent ugly loss to Nashville. Look for the Panthers to kick the Preds while they are down today. Take Florida to win. |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Oakland v. Northern Kentucky -6.5 | Top | 74-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
This is a quarterfinal matchup in the Horizon League Tournament. You may be surprised, given that this is the #4 vs. #5 seed, one team is favored by this many points. But not only is Northern Kentucky substantially better than Oakland, they are at home (only the Semis and Final are played at a neutral site - Indianapolis - for this particular Tourney).
These teams just played in the regular season finale. NKU won 78-69 as a 2-point road favorite. Based on that result, this line actually looks a little short. Now, Oakland did win here in Highland Heights - 64-63 as a 6.5-point dog - back in January. But that was a bit of a “head-scratching” result considering NKU led by five at halftime and Oakland shot below 40% for the game. The Norse led by seven with just over three minutes to go.
In the rematch last Saturday, NKU won handily despite Oakland making 15 more free throws on 16 more attempts.
Northern Kentucky is 13-3 SU at home this season and has lost just one time in their last five games overall. That one loss was by a single point. Even more impressive about NKU’s recent form is their last four games all came on the road. Oakland got to play its last four all at home and still went just 2-2 SU. There’s a gulf between these two Horizon League sides, much larger than what you’d think based on the seeding. Lay it! 10* |
|||||||
03-02-23 | Illinois State +4 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 62-75 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 21 m | Show |
This is the first of four first round matchups in the Missouri Valley Conference Tournament (aka “Arch Madness”) in St. Louis on Thursday. Note the early tip time of 1 PM ET.
I like Illinois State here in a battle of struggling teams. The Redbirds just snapped an 0-6 SU/ATS losing streak by routing Evansville 72-53 in the regular season finale. Northern Iowa has just one SU win over its last nine games, so they are hardly an ideal favorite.
That one win for UNI came at Missouri State on 2/18 and was by just three points. Going back to mid-January, the Panthers have just two wins by more than three points.
This is a double revenge spot for Illinois State, who lost both regular season matchups to UNI. But both games were close and decided by a total of just eight points. Actually, the revenge angle runs even deeper as ISU has lost NINE straight times to UNI, including two MVC Tourney exits. So you can bet the underdogs will be motivated coming into this one. Northern Iowa is 4-12 ATS if they allowed 80 or more points in their previous game. They lost 83-75 to Belmont on Sunday. Take the points. 8* |
|||||||
03-01-23 | Hurricanes -130 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -130 | 13 h 6 m | Show |
Carolina suffered a no-rest road loss vs the Ducks last time out. They are still on the road, but have had 4 days off. The 'Canes are a very good road team this year, facing the Knights who are less effective at home. Carolina sports the second best defense and fifth-ranked PK, combined with a top nine offense. The Knights are good on defense (10th, 2.8 GA), poor on the PK, and only average on offense this season. They managed 0 goals against a stiff Colorado D last time out, and the Hurricanes are a definite step up from the Avs. The 'Canes are 8-2 lately, allowing just a minuscule 10 goals in those wins. Andersen had an off-game in the loss to the Ducks, but his previous three starts were superb. These two teams don't play each other often, but when they do it has been the 'Canes on top. I expect the same sort of result on Wednesday. Take the Hurricanes, rested and reset after that embarrassing Ducks loss, to steal this one on the road. |
|||||||
03-01-23 | Southern Indiana +2.5 v. SIU-Edwardsville | Top | 54-68 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
This is the first round of the Ohio Valley Conference Tournament. The OVC is down this year after losing the likes of Belmont, Murray State and Austin Peay to the Missouri Valley and ASUN. Regular season champ Morehead State was incredibly lucky this season (#1 luck rating at KenPom), so I think this Tourney is pretty wide open. The second of two first round games Wednesday (the whole tournament is played in Evansville) pits Southern Indiana against SIU Edwardsville. These teams split their regular season series, each winning on the other’s floor. Neither has fared well at the betting window recently. Southern Indiana is 2-10 ATS L12 games. SIUE is 2-11 ATS L13. Southern Indiana transitioned into Division I this season and proved a lot of doubters wrong by posting a winning overall record (16-15 SU). The Screaming Eagles are the OVC’s third highest scoring team and second best three-point shooting team. They have four double digit scorers plus the conference’s leading rebounder (Polakovich). Plus there’s a bit of a edge to Southern Indiana, whose campus is just 13 miles from where this tournament is being played. SIU Edwardsville stumbled down the stretch, losing four straight before a 93-78 win over SEMO on Saturday. The line has already moved against the Cougars and I agree with that. Take the points. 8* |
|||||||
03-01-23 | 76ers -1.5 v. Heat | Top | 119-96 | Win | 100 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
The 76ers look to avenge a 101-99 loss to the Heat tonight. That two-point setback took place on Monday and was the Sixers second straight defeat. But prior to that, they’d won and covered five in a row. On the flip side, Miami was 0-4 SU/ATS its previous four games before beating Philly. The Heat are 4-12 ATS L16 games and haven’t covered two in a row since early January.
So I like the road team, playing with revenge, laying a short number. Miami has been terrible ATS at home this year, going 8-19-2.
It was a tough spot for Philadelphia on Monday, coming off another close loss at home (to Boston) on Saturday. The Sixers ended up turning the ball over 18 times and ended up trailing the Heat by as many as 11 points. But despite all that - and missing several layups in the second half - the Sixers still had a chance to win at the end of regulation when James Harden’s three-point try bounced off the back of the rim.
Neither Bam Adebayo nor Tyler Herro played particularly well for the Heat Monday, but they still had five players finish in double figures. Adebayo figures to struggle again here as he’s got the tough assignment of dealing with Joel Embiid. The Heat normally don’t shoot well from three (just 33.3% for the season) but were 15 of 37 on Monday. I don’t see a repeat of that shooting tonight. Philadelphia hasn’t dropped three in a row since early December. With so many road games looming and seeding on the line, I can’t see them losing this game. They are 18-7 ATS in revenge spots this season. 10* |
|||||||
03-01-23 | Pittsburgh v. Notre Dame +5 | Top | 81-88 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
As I wrote about yesterday, the ACC is way down this season. This has resulted in a team like Pittsburgh, picked to finish 14th in the preseason poll, currently topping the conference standings. The Panthers come into Tuesday ranked #25 in the country but I could probably name 50 teams that would be favored over them on a neutral court. Notre Dame isn’t one of them, but it does “speak volumes” that this line is so low (even in South Bend) considering the Fighting Irish are just 10-19 SU on the year and have lost seven in a row (and 11 of 12). For many years, Notre Dame had a tremendous home court edge at the Purcell Pavilion (Joyce Center). All 10 of their wins this season have come here and tonight marks HC Mike Brey’s final home game. Brey is stepping down after 23 years at the helm. It figures to be an emotional environment tonight. The Fighting Irish are hoping to get back a couple of key players (Starling and Hammond) for tonight as they were really short handed against Wake Forest on Saturday. Still, I like them getting points in this situation. Each of the L6 games have seen the Irish lose by eight points or less, four of those by four points or less. Plus, I think Pitt is completely overrated at the moment. 10* |
|||||||
02-28-23 | Islanders v. Wild UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
The 25th and 26th ranked offense meet up when the Wild host the Islanders on Tuesday. The two teams sport top ten defenses and PKs, so goals may be scarce. It has been three straight unders for the Islanders who are missing their main scorer in Barzal. Minnesota has gone under the total in eight of nine games The Wild are just a very defense-driven club. Minnesota's Gustavsson held the Leafs to two goals in his last appearance, and has held the opposition to two or less goals in six of seven games. The Isles net-minder Sorokin has allowed just 2.4 goals a game this year, and has a .937 save % in his last five games. Look for the Isles and Wild to do what they do best and keep the puck out of the net on Tuesday. I'm wagering on another Under. |
|||||||
02-28-23 | Bulls v. Raptors -4.5 | Top | 98-104 | Win | 100 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
Chicago went into the All Star Break as losers of six in a row and they failed to cover the number in all six defeats. But it’s been a much different team coming out of the Break as the Bulls have soundly beaten both the Nets (131-87) and Wizards (102-82).
Tonight, they go North of the Border to face Toronto, who is coming off a 25-point loss in Cleveland. I think this is a good time to sell high on the Bulls while simultaneously buying low on the Raptors (who are 4-1 ATS coming off a double digit loss).
Toronto is 19-13 SU at home this season. Chicago is just 10-20 SU on the road. The last time the Bulls won a road game was January 28th in Orlando. Excluding a win over in Europe, that is the Bulls’ only road win since January 6th!
The Raptors went 4-1 SU/ATS on a recent homestand, before going 0-2 ATS at Detroit and Cleveland (did win the Detroit game, straight up). Overall, this team has won seven of nine. They are 8-3 ATS L11 at home. After shooting over 50% at home each of the last two games, the Bulls are likely due for some shooting regression tonight. Washington also shot horribly against them on Sunday. Coming off back to back sub-100 point games, you’ve got to think Toronto is due for some positive regression at the offensive end. 10* |
|||||||
02-28-23 | NC State v. Duke -6.5 | Top | 67-71 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 3 m | Show |
The ACC is way down this year. Not a single team from the conference is currently in the KenPom Top 25. That speaks volumes.
Who is the best team in the ACC right now? Most would say Virginia, but they’ve lost two in a row and before that only beat Notre Dame by two and Louisville by three. The answer to the question may be … Duke.
The Blue Devils have won four straight and seven of nine. One of those two losses, at Virginia in overtime, they definitely should have won.
One game that Jon Scheyer’s team certainly did NOT deserve to win was January 4th at NC State when they were soundly beaten 84-60 as 4.5-point road favorites. But you’d have to go back almost 30 seasons (to 1994-95) to find the last time NC State swept Duke in a season series. Look for Duke to avenge that loss from January tonight in the final home game of the season. The Blue Devils have been bet up to 7-point favorites as of this writing, but I still like them to cover. NC State just lost by 25 at home to Clemson on Saturday, which says a lot about their squad. Duke turned it over a lot (21 times) in the first meeting, which won’t happen again tonight. They are undefeated at home (15-0) this season, winning by an average of 16.7 points/game. NC State has lost 20 straight times here in Durham and is just 6-14 SU overall vs. Duke the L20 meetings. Lay the points. 10* |
|||||||
02-28-23 | Green Bay +21.5 v. Wright State | Top | 57-77 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
This is an ugly matchup for my first conference tourney play, but I’m showing solid value on Green Bay tonight at Wright State in the first round of the Horizon League Tournament.
This game is being played at Wright State, but it’s just way too many points to lay in this situation, even if Green Bay is 3-28 this year. Wright State is coming off a tough four-game road trip where they won only once, that being Saturday at Detroit - by 11 points.
Now the Raiders did destroy Green Bay in both regular season meetings, winning by 32 and 31 points. But that can lead to a sense of overconfidence. They (Wright State) may already be thinking about Milwaukee, who would be their quarterfinal opponent (assuming they win here).
Conference tournaments give new life to teams, even those who had poor regular seasons like Green Bay. The Phoenix are basically playing with “house money” tonight. They have lost by more than 17 only once since the second meeting with Wright State. That was at Horizon League regular season champ Youngstown State. Wright State is 3-13 ATS the L16 home games following three or more consecutive road games. This is the most points the Raiders have been asked to lay in any game this season. 10* |
|||||||
02-27-23 | Golden Knights v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The Avs and Knights both have top ten defenses and middling offenses this year. Vegas plays a tight-checking game on the road with great success. They are 17-5 away, and nine of their last ten road games have gone under the total. Meantime the Avs have limited the opposition to under 2 goals in 4 of 5 games. Georgiev has a save % of .960+ in his last two starts. Hill hasn't played in some days, but he has been very good this season. The two teams don't usually produce much offense when they meet. If I had to pick a final score based on their history, I'd jump on 3-2. With a total of six available, I am wagering on the the Avalanche and Golden Knights to go under the total. |
|||||||
02-27-23 | Magic v. Pelicans OVER 226 | Top | 101-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
It’s not been a good start to the second half of the NBA regular season from the New Orleans Pelicans, who have dropped two games, 115-110 at Toronto and then 128-106 at New York.
But the Pelicans should at least be thrilled tonight to be back at home, where they have not played in 17 days. Their next three games are also all out on the road.
It was a dismal shooting performance against the Knicks, especially from three (2 of 19). Speaking of dismal shooting performances, the Orlando Magic shot just 38.9% from the field and 20.7% on threes in their loss Saturday to the Indiana Pacers (121-108).
I anticipate we’re going to see better shooting from both teams here on Monday, particularly from three. New Orleans has scored less than its season average of 114.7 points/game in five straight, so they are definitely due some positive regression. I can’t see a sixth straight game with 110 points or fewer. The Pelicans are shooting 37.3% from three at home this season. Orlando is 16-6 to the Over in non-conference games this year. Those games have averaged 231.3 points. The Magic are also due some positive regression when it comes to their shooting as they’ve been below their season average in points four of the last five games. Take the Over here. |
|||||||
02-27-23 | Morgan State +8.5 v. Maryland-Eastern Shore | Top | 68-61 | Win | 100 | 10 h 19 m | Show |
For a second time in three days, I’m looking to fade Maryland Eastern Shore. It didn’t work out Saturday as the Hawks ended up bludgeoning Coppin State 78-57 on the road. But this is a much tougher opponent that UMES is facing Monday.
After winning seven in a row from January 9th to February 2nd, UMES has dropped three of five overall. This includes a pair of losses here at home, to Norfolk State and NC Central, who are probably the best two teams in the MEAC this year.
UMES was an underdog in both of those losses. That’s obviously NOT the case here. While the Hawks have been profitable as chalk in 2022-23, it’s not often you see them laying this many points. Tonight will mark just the fourth time all season that they’ve been favored by six or more. Only once were they favored by eight or more and they did not cover the spread that time (beat Delaware State 68-66 as an 11.5-point favorite).
Morgan State is coming off back to back wins, both at home, over Howard and Delaware State. Howard is the co-leader in the MEAC right now. Both games saw the Bears score more than 80 points. They shot the lights out Saturday vs. Delaware State, making 58.9% of their FG attempts including 9 of 15 from three.
This is a revenge game for Morgan State, who lost at home to UMES by 14 back in January. It was a one-point game at half, but the Bears ended up going just 4 of 18 from three in that one. I expect better shooting tonight (maybe not as good as Sunday) and them to stay inside a generous number. Take the points. 10* |
|||||||
02-26-23 | Capitals v. Sabres -109 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
The Sabres have won 4 of 5 games, beating the Panthers on Friday. The Capitals, with Ovechkin returning, beat the Rangers on Saturday, but must play on the road on Sunday morning. That win was the Capitals' first in 7 games. The Sabres have improved on defense over the season, but are still a very offense-driven team with the 3rd best goals against and a top 5 PP. The Capitals scored 6 goals against the Rangers but that has not at all been the norm. In their previous six games, the Caps' 21st ranked offense as been underachieving if anything. Buffalo beat the Capitals last time they met. Sunday morning will come around very quickly for an aging Capitals team. I will take the better and fresher Sabres to win at home. |
|||||||
02-26-23 | Providence v. Georgetown +7 | Top | 88-68 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 39 m | Show |
I like Georgetown today as a good old fashioned contrarian home dog. This line has moved in the Hoyas’ direction despite Providence taking the majority of the bets, likely a sign of “sharp money” taking the points. I’m also not a huge believer in this Providence team.
The Friars just lost on Wednesday, 87-69 at UConn. All eight of their losses this second have come on the road. There’s obviously a big difference between UConn and Georgetown, but there’s also a difference between getting and laying 7.5 points.
Unranked home dogs of +8.5 or less vs. ranked opponents are 58-37 ATS (61%) this season.
Despite their paltry SU record, G’town has covered the spread in 9 of their last 11 games. Providence has lost three straight and five of six on the road. 10* |
|||||||
02-25-23 | Bruins -1.5 v. Canucks | Top | 3-1 | Win | 105 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The Big Bad Bruins are 0-4 when playing in Vancouver, and I imagine that bugs them. The Canucks fans hate the Bruins for age-old reasons, from way back when Vancouver was something other than a laughing stock. The Canucks play one of their three overwhelmed fill-in net minders, probably Delia. The Bruins counter with Ullmark (1.88, .937 SV %), not to mention their 2nd ranked offense and top defense against the league's worst power play and 31st ranked defense. Take the Bruins on the puck line, at - 1 1/2. Great odds available.. |
|||||||
02-25-23 | Norfolk State v. South Carolina State +8.5 | Top | 88-76 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 25 m | Show |
South Carolina State may have only five wins this season, but I think they are a live dog in this spot, hosting Norfolk State.
Norfolk State, who just had a six-game win streak ended Monday, has two big upcoming games after this. Both are on the road, against Howard and NC Central. Those will determine who finishes first in the MEAC.
The Spartans may have already been looking ahead when they lost outright at Coppin State Monday. They were 16-point home favorites for that game.
While 15-3 SU as a favorite this season, Norfolk State is just 8-8 against the spread. South Carolina State has won its last two home games and they are off a one-point loss at Delaware State. When they lost by 15 at Norfolk State earlier this year, the Bulldogs shot just 40.7% overall. Norfolk State was 53% overall and 53% from three! They won’t shoot as well this time. Take the points. 8* |
|||||||
02-25-23 | Maryland-Eastern Shore v. Coppin State +3 | Top | 78-57 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 14 m | Show |
Not only will I fade Norfolk State on Saturday, I’m taking the team that just upset them on Monday, Coppin State, who is at home here facing MD Eastern Shore.
Coppin State was 0-9 SU/ATS its L9 games before shocking Norfolk State Monday. But I like the idea of grabbing points with them at home, off a win. The Eagles should finally have a bit of confidence here.
MD East Shore has lost three of four, so it’s not like they have much confidence. They aren’t road favorites very often. They are 5-9 SU on the road, getting outscored by 9.1 points/game this season.
The first meeting between these teams was a 19-point win for MDES. But they shot the lights out at home. On the road, they shoot just 39.3% and average only 62.2 PPG. The line closed -6.5 in that first meeting, so I’m showing value on the home team getting points in the rematch. 8* |
|||||||
02-25-23 | Texas v. Baylor -3.5 | Top | 72-81 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
Following back to back double digit losses on the road, I am expecting Baylor to show up in a major way Saturday afternoon when it hosts Texas. Those back to back losses came at Kansas and Kansas State, and there’s really little shame in losing to two Top 25 teams on the road. Case in point; Texas has dropped four of its last six road games. This is a revenge game for Baylor as well. They lost 76-71 in Austin on January 30th. But they were without Langston Love and Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua in that game, plus they shot just 8 of 26 from three. This is only the second time all year that Baylor has dropped two in a row. On the previous occasion, they went to West Virginia and won. Before the loss on 1/30, Baylor had won and covered the last six meetings with Texas. 8* |
|||||||
02-24-23 | Nevada v. Fresno State +3.5 | Top | 60-56 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
I like the spot for Fresno State, even without Isaih Moore, in what will be their final conference home game of the season.
The Bulldogs just beat Air Force on the road, 74-69, as a 2.5-point underdog.
Nevada has won five of six, but their only loss was on the road (at Utah State) and the only other away game in that stretch was a one-point win. All seven Wolf Pack losses this year have come on the road (they are 14-0 in Reno).
The Wolf Pack have done remarkably well as a favorite this year. But they were actually down at the half at home to San Jose State Tuesday. This is a quick revenge spot for the home dog, who lost by 11 in Reno two weeks ago. Nevada shot very well in that game - 54.5% overall and 50% from three - percentages they will not match here. Take the points. 8* |
|||||||
02-24-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219 | Top | 99-128 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 55 m | Show |
Miami won the Eastern Conference in 2020 while Milwaukee did it in 2021. This year, both teams enter the second half staring up at last season’s EC Champs, Boston. But, heading into the All-Star Break, nobody was hotter than Milwaukee, who has won 12 straight games to move within a game of the top spot in the Conference. Miami is 7th, 10.5 games back of top.
I expect this to be a lot lower-scoring than when these teams played three weeks ago. The final score was Bucks 123 Heat 115.
There could be some rust coming out of the ASB for both teams. Miami is averaging only 108.3 points/game this season.
Both teams are top four in the league in defensive efficiency (Milwaukee 3rd, Miami 4th). But the real key is Giannis being doubtful. Without him, the Bucks’ offensive efficiency drops way off. Wes Matthews and Pat Connaughton are also both out. Miami also likes to play slow. They are 28th in pace. 10* |
|||||||
02-24-23 | Wild v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 106 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
The 6-4 Leafs are tough to beat at home with a superlative 22-6 record. They'll be home to the Wild who won against the Blue Jackets last night. It is the third game in four nights for the Wild. They've won four straight but do struggle when away, just 1-4 in recent road-work. The Wild have allowed just 5 goals in that winning streak, but have scored just 10. That is the story of the Wild this season; limited scoring and limited goals allowed. Gustavvson is in net for the Wild tomorrow. He has been super-sharp lately, with a .944 save % since the All-star break. The Leafs are just as good on defense, but with a much more potent offense. The Under has been the name of the game when these two teams meet in Toronto and when Minnesota is playing on short rest. Gustavvson has had such a hot hand that I think this game will go true to form. Take the Wild and Leafs to go under on Friday. |
|||||||
02-24-23 | Marshall v. Old Dominion +3.5 | Top | 67-71 | Win | 100 | 8 h 54 m | Show |
Old Dominion just upset Southern Miss, 69-64, here at home as a 2-point dog. It was the Monarchs second straight win as a dog after also defeating Appalachian State on the road, 74-63 (+3).
Now it’s time to host another of the Sun Belt’s best, Marshall, who is tied with Southern Miss for first place coming into the final game of the regular season. I think ODU pulls the upset again.
Marshall has won five straight, but the line is moving in the other direction as Old Dominion is now 11-4 SU at home where it gives up just 62.4 points/game.
This is Marshall’s second road game in three days. Defensively, the Thundering Herd are just not very good as they’ve let five of their last six opponents score 77 or more points. Now Marshall can definitely score, but look for ODU to slow down the tempo. 10* |
|||||||
02-23-23 | Flames v. Golden Knights -136 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
the Flames knocked off the Coyotes on Wednesday, but are back to back and on the road against the Vegas Golden Knights on Thursday. Just 4-6 L10, and 12-9 on the road, they'll face a Knights team that has won 5 of 6 games since the break. The Knights were embarrassed by the lowly Black Hawks last time out, so are a fine candidate for a rebound win. Vegas has held most teams to 2 goals or less lately. The Flames broke out in the third period against the Coyotes, but have otherwise had trouble holding a lead. They are 1-6 when playing the third game in four nights and 0-7 when playing in Vegas. The Knights are healthier lately, and have an edge in all categories other than PK. You can add the Knights' extra days rest and the Flames lack of success in Vegas, leading me to take the Golden Knights to bounce back at home on Thursday. |
|||||||
02-23-23 | Penn State v. Ohio State -1.5 | Top | 75-71 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
This season has turned into a disaster for Ohio State, who has won just once in their last 14 games! Even worse is that the Buckeyes are also 1-13 ATS in this stretch. Their only win came against Iowa, 93-77 here in Columbus back on January 21st. Since then, they are 0-8 SU/ATS.
But I still like OSU tonight laying a short number at home vs. Penn State, who is just 2-7 on the road. One of those two road wins came last time out against last place Minnesota. I just don’t see the Nittany Lions winning two straight on the road.
Big 10 home favorites are 64-19 SU at home this season. This is the ultimate “buy low” spot on Ohio State after they were humiliated by Michigan State, Iowa and Purdue the L3 games. Two of those were on the road. They are 8-5 SU at home.
Penn State is also just 2-8 SU as an underdog. Per KenPom, Ohio State has been the unluckiest team in the country this season and they still have a Top 30 offense. I’m rolling the dice and taking them. 10* |
|||||||
02-22-23 | Flames v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -145 | 22 h 26 m | Show |
By the numbers, Calgary should beat the Coyotes on Wednesday, but the 4-6 Flames are struggling, barely over .500 on the road, and 0-5 in recent games against sub-par teams. The Coyotes have been surprisingly good at home and winners of 3 of 4 games. Arizona has been very competitive in most games lately; 7 of 8 contests have been decided by one goal with 6 going to OT. The Flames have also had 5 of 6 one goal games. |
|||||||
02-22-23 | The Citadel +7 v. East Tennessee State | Top | 70-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
East Tennessee State just can’t cover the number at home. The Buccaneers are 1-11 ATS at home this season, which is the worst home ATS record in the country.
The last time ETSU played at home, they only managed to beat lowly VMI by four points. Since then, they’ve played two tough road games, losing both by a combined six points.
Now The Citadel has just one win in its last eight games. But the Bulldogs have remained competitive during that stretch, losing four times by six points or fewer.
This matchup is all about wanting to take the points, no matter who is favored. In this case, ETSU is 2-10 ATS when laying points this season. A big revenge spot here for The Citadel, who lost by 22 at home to ETSU earlier in the year. ETSU won’t shoot that well again. As a conference fave, the Bucs are 0-5 ATS with four outright losses. 10* |
|||||||
02-21-23 | Red Wings +140 v. Capitals | Top | 3-1 | Win | 140 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The Red Wings lost their last game of a Western swing but won the previous five. In those games, the Wings outscored their opponents 25 -12. Still on the road, but with an extra day's rest, they'll play the 3-7 Capitals, who are still missing Ovechkin and have a hefty injury list. The Capitals have scored just nine goals in their last five games, more than a goal less than their season's average. It appears that the Caps are a poor bet until the Captain is back. Detroit's net-minder Husso wasn't terrific against the Kraken last time out, but that as not been the norm. His save % over the last six games is a heady .930. Washington's goalie, Kuemper, has been very steady this year but did give up 11 goals in his last 3 games. The Red Wings are a sizable underdog on Tuesday, but doing the math, I am all in on the Wings winning. |
|||||||
02-21-23 | Western Michigan +3.5 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 59-66 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
Western Michigan just ended a nine-game losing streak on Saturday by upsetting Ball State on the road, 78-68 as 7.5 point underdogs. Truly remarkable is that the Broncos had failed to cover the number in their previous eight games.
So not only has WMU been losing, they’ve generally been getting blown out. But I like them here, getting points, against an Eastern Michigan team that is unaccustomed to being a favorite.
EMU has a 6-21 straight up record, one game worse than WMU. The last time the Eagles were favored was January 21st when they lost here at home to Northern Illinois by 21 points.
In fact, the Eagles are just 1-3 SU and ATS as favorites this season.
|
|||||||
02-21-23 | Baylor -1.5 v. Kansas State | Top | 65-75 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
I’m going to come out and say that I think Kansas State has been a huge overachiever this season. My thinking is the Wildcats will be a good team to fade down the stretch.
Over their last 11 games, K-State is only 5-6 SU. Every time they’ve lost, they’ve been an underdog (as they are here).
Baylor is off an 87-71 loss at Kansas, but before that the Bears had won and covered four straight, not to mention were 10-1 SU their last 11 games.
Big 12 road favorites are 15-7 this season. Across the country, when two ranked teams face off, the favorite has gone 46-35 ATS this season. I just simply think Baylor is the better team here. They come in with revenge for a two-point, overtime loss in Waco back on January 7th where they were 7.5 point home favorites. 10* |
|||||||
02-20-23 | Kansas v. TCU -2 | Top | 63-58 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
Gonna fade Kansas here, off their 87-71 beatdown of Baylor over the weekend. That was the fourth straight win and cover by the Jayhawks (also 6-1 SU/ATS L7) and as a result they’re only a short underdog for Big Monday in Fort Worth.
TCU got its best player (Mike Miles) back Saturday against Oklahoma State and delivered a vicious 100-75 beatdown on Oklahoma State. That put an end to a four-game SU/ATS losing streak for the Horned Frogs. All those losses occurred with Miles out of the lineup.
Miles led the way with 15 points Saturday. Five other TCU players finished in double figures. This is just a much better team with Miles in the lineup.
Kansas knows that as they were crushed 83-60 (in Lawrence!) a Miles-led TCU squad last month. I expect the Jayhawks to play better tonight, but it still won’t be enough to win. TCU is 12-3 SU at home this season and 10-5 ATS. Big 12 home favorites have cleaned up in general, going 43-14 SU. Lay the short number. 10* |
|||||||
02-20-23 | Jets v. Rangers -160 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -160 | 20 h 12 m | Show |
The Rangers lost last time out, breaking a seven game win streak. They are back home on Monday and will have an extra day's rest over the the opposition. The Rangers are a good home team this season and have really hit their stride lately, especially on offense. The visiting 5-5 Jets are on a back to back, and are experiencing something of a scoring drought, managing just 6 goals in their last three games. Both teams are top ten in defense; the Jets have the better penalty kill, but the Rangers have a decided advantage on offense and Power Play. Even including their solitary 3-2 loss to the Flames, the Jets have averaged just under five goals scored in their last eight games. The Jets aren't the best road team, and will get no breaks on offense with Shesterkin in net. Rittich will be in goal for Winnipeg; he's has been solid for the Jets as a back up, but he isn't Hellebuyck. At home and with better rest, this looks like yet another victory for the Rangers. Take New York to win outright. |
|||||||
02-19-23 | Oregon v. Washington State -1 | Top | 65-68 | Win | 100 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Two teams headed in opposite directions here. Washington State has won its last two games, both at home, 56-51 over Washington and 80-62 over Oregon State. The Cougars were favored in both wins, but only covered the last one. Oregon has lost two straight, one to the same Washington team that Wazzu just beat. The Ducks were 5.5 point favorites in Seattle Thursday, but lost 72-71 in overtime. That was after losing 70-63 at home to UCLA last week. Coming off an overtime loss is tough, especially when you’re only 3-5 on the road like the Ducks are. We’ve already seen Wazzu take money here and they are now a 1-point favorite. The Cougars are 9-3 straight up in Pullman this season. This is a revenge game for Washington State. They lost by 14 in Eugene way back in December. Wazzu could also be getting some players back Sunday, including Adrame Diongue. 10* |
|||||||
02-19-23 | Blues v. Senators -165 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 3 h 19 m | Show |
The Blues, now minus their captain and their former top scorer, were roughed up by the Avs last night. They'll travel to Ottawa to meet the 6-2 Senators in a back to back situation. Losing O'Reilly will be a serious blow, and they also have a couple of key injuries tonight. St. Louis is three games under .500 as a road team, and have lost their last three straight away games. |
|||||||
02-19-23 | Niagara -1.5 v. Marist | Top | 52-61 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 24 m | Show |
Not only did both Niagara and Marist each lose on Friday, but they are on losing streaks entering this game. Niagara has lost two straight while Marist has lost three in a row. I expect the road team to get the victory in this one. Niagara fell 70-66 at Mount St. Mary’s Friday as a 1-point road dog. That was after losing 72-55 at home to Iona (as an eight-point dog). Iona is the best team in the MAAC. But the thing is, the Purple Eagles had won five in a row previous to the back to back losses. Then you have Marist, who has won just once over its last nine games. The Red Foxes lost to Fairfield 70-61 as 1.5 point dogs Friday right here at home. Niagara has revenge here for a two-point loss at home (as four-point favorites) last month. They shoot the ball a lot better than Marist does (45% to 40%). Play the better team laying a small number. 8* |
|||||||
02-19-23 | North Carolina v. NC State -2 | Top | 69-77 | Win | 100 | 4 h 24 m | Show |
At the end of the day, I just don’t believe North Carolina to be very good. The Tar Heels have lost four of their last five games, the most recent one at home to Miami, 80-72 as six-point favorites. Now NC State is also off a loss, at Syracuse, 75-72 as two-point underdogs. That was the Wolfpack’s second time losing in the last three games. But here in Raleigh, NC State is 12-1 straight up and averaging 83.4 points/game. Given that info, this line looks a bit short. Especially considering UNC has lost all four games in which it has been an underdog this season. The Tar Heels are also 1-6 ATS on the road. Over their last five games, UNC has shot just 40% from the field. They are shooting 30% from three for the full season. ACC home favorites are 58-15 straight up this season. I expect NC State to win and cover the spread Sunday. 8* |
|||||||
02-18-23 | Creighton v. St. John's +7.5 | Top | 77-67 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
Tricky spot here for #18 Creighton, who is coming off an OT loss at Providence and now laying points on the road. Sure, the Bluejays may very well win this game, but I do not see them covering the number. Now St. John’s got absolutely annihilated when they met Creighton earlier in the year. It was a 104-76 loss as a 10.5-point underdog for the Red Storm. But now look at this line by comparison. Sure, the magnitude of the blowout of the first go around needs to be factored in. But this number should not be any higher than -5, IMO. The Johnnies also come in as winners of two in a row. One of those wins came here at home against Providence, the same team that just knocked off Creighton. I also should mention how Creighton is a real geographical outlier in the Big East. This leads to a tremendous home court advantage in Omaha for them. But I think the conference road is a challenge, having to constantly go out East. All four conference losses have been on the road. St. John’s is 11-4 SU at home and plays at the third fastest tempo in the country. They are a tough matchup for the Bluejays here. Take the points. 10* |
|||||||
02-18-23 | Texas A&M v. Missouri -2 | Top | 69-60 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
Great spot to fade Texas A&M, IMO. We’re getting Missouri, at home, at a very cheap price due to the Tigers getting blown out earlier in the week at Auburn. But that was a very poor matchup for the Tigers. They are 14-2 SU here in Columbia and should bounce back. Meanwhile, A&M just won and covered for the fourth straight time Wednesday, outlasting Arkansas 62-56 as four-point favorites. The Aggies were not covering most of the way. In fact, they trailed 33-24 at halftime. A&M shot 50% from three against Arkansas, which will not happen again on the road. Six of the Aggies’ seven losses this season have been away from home. The four-game win streak has seen them win just once on the road and that was against last place LSU. To my earlier point, A&M shoots just 30% from three when not in College Station. Missouri puts up 86.3 points/game at home. Remember they went to Tennessee and won last Saturday, hitting 14 threes against the best 3-point defense in College Basketball history. This is a revenge spot for an 18-point loss in College Station last month where Mizzou shot poorly. 10* |
|||||||
02-18-23 | Islanders v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 105 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The Islanders knocked off the Penguins on Friday but face the big bad Bruins on no days rest on Saturday. It was the first win for the Islanders in 4 tries. They have given up 17 goals in 4 games, far more than their usual season's average of 2.7 goals per game. After a three game losing streak the Bruins seem to be back on track, winning 3 of 4 games and allowing just 6 goals against in that period. The Bruins have the top defense and PP in the league. On offense, they far outscore the Islanders, who are 24th in goals for and 26th on the Power Play. |
|||||||
02-17-23 | Abilene Christian v. Grand Canyon UNDER 143.5 | Top | 84-94 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 6 m | Show |
Because both teams have been going Over the total regularly of late, I feel we’re getting a great number here as Abilene Christian takes on Grand Canyon in late night WAC action Friday. Now is the time to play these teams to go Under the total. Abilene Christian has gone Over in six straight games. But four of those totals were set at less than 140. Grand Canyon has gone Over in 11 of its last 12 games, the one exception being last Saturday’s loss out in Seattle. Again though, most of their totals have been set well below this number. In fact, only 2 of the 12 games had a total above 140.0 As we saw in their last game, Abilene Christian can struggle defensively. But - because Thursday’s scheduled game vs. New Mexico State was a forfeit, the Wildcats have had plenty of time to prepare for tonight’s matchup and “get right” defensively. After losing at Seattle last Saturday, Grand Canyon lost again Wednesday as a 12-point home favorite. I expect them to play more cautiously tonight and by that, I mean “slower.” The Antelopes are already outside the Top 300 in adjusted tempo. 10* |
|||||||
02-17-23 | Rangers v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The Rangers have won six straight games, scoring 31 goals while allowing 17. They continue to play on the road, where they are now 16-5, facing the Oilers on Friday night. The Oilers who were pressing for 1st in their division, are just 2-3 since the All-star break. Their league's best offense and Power Play have put up some high numbers, but they have also given up 14 goals in 3 games. With their recent offensive surge, the Rangers have moved into the top ten teams on offense, but the power surge appears to have come at the expense of more goals allowed than normal. The free-er style sure hasn't affected their winning percentage. Edmonton is worse than average on defense and a bottom feeder (27th ranked)on the penalty kill. Held to just 2 goals in their last game, look for the Oilers to bounce back on offense. Shesterkin has under-performed since the All-star break, with an .880 save % in his last three games. Oilers' net minder Skinner allowed 6 goals in his last time. |
|||||||
02-17-23 | Quinnipiac v. Siena -2 | Top | 66-63 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The race at the top of the MAAC has gotten rather tight with Siena just one game back of both Iona and Rider in the loss column. The surging Saints have won two straight, though they failed to cover the 10-point spread against Marist last time out (won 73-65). I like them here, laying a much shorter number. While Siena is trending in a positive direction, Quinnipiac has dropped three in a row and just got blown out by last place Canisius 85-65 as a five-point road favorite. Siena captured the first meeting between these teams, 83-76 as a three-point road dog. They scored 52 points in the second half of that game. Given the trajectory of Quinnipiac’s play at the defensive end (allowing 78 or more points in five of the last seven games), I expect another big offensive showing from Siena here. After shooting just 40.4% their last five games, well below their season average, Siena is due for positive regression at the offensive end anyway. There was some sharp action on Siena overnight before we saw some buyback on Quinnipiac this morning. I feel very comfortable laying this short number with the home team. 10* |
|||||||
02-16-23 | Gonzaga -8 v. Loyola Marymount | Top | 108-65 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
I like Gonzaga to roll here in a major revenge spot against Loyola Marymount.
LMU has wins over both Gonzaga and St. Mary’s this season, so they now have a target on their back when it comes to the top two teams in the WCC.
Gonzaga was a 16-point favorite when they lost at home to LMU last month. It was an uncharacteristically poor shooting night from the Zags as they went only 4 of 14 from three-point range. That was - by far - their lowest scoring effort in conference play.
Loyola Marymount comes into this rematch having dropped three of four overall, including 71-69 at Santa Clara over the weekend. The lone victory, which was against St. Mary’s, required overtime. They trailed 16-2 in that contest. The Lions are a good home team, but this number is just too low considering the revenge angle and the fact Gonzaga has won 51 of the previous 55 head to head encounters. 8* |
|||||||
02-16-23 | Clippers +1.5 v. Suns | Top | 116-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
Phoenix returned home after a five-game road trip Wednesday and defeated Sacramento 120-109 as a two-point favorite. I don’t think tonight goes as well for the Suns.
Now the Suns have beaten the Clippers twice out in LA. But this is a different Clippers team now. Kawhi Leonard didn’t play in either of those first two meetings while Paul George also sat out once. The Clips’ leading scorers in the losses to the Suns were Morris and Mann.
Phoenix has won 11 of 14 since an injury-induced slide last month. But they’ve been facing a lot of weak competition.
The Clippers just scored 134 on Wednesday night in a win over Golden State. They had a 44-point third quarter. Leonard led the way with 33 points in 34 minutes while George added 20 points and eight assists. Phoenix is 9-0 SU/ATS in division games, the only team in the league without a division loss. I think that ends here. 10* |
|||||||
02-16-23 | Panthers -114 v. Capitals | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The Panthers were embarrassed by the Blues in their last game so look for improved play, especially on defense, against the Capitals tonight. Washington is without Ovechkin tonight, has a heavy injury list, and hasn't had much recent success vs the Panthers. The Caps are off a pair of home losses and have managed to score just five goals in their last three games. It will very likely be Bobrovsky vs Kuemper in net tonight. Bobrovsky has been the hotter of the two lately with a sparkling .951 save % since the All-star break. The Panthers have a top seven offense but struggle to keep the puck out of the net. This may not be such an issue in this game. The Capitals manage to score just 3 goals a game on average this year, and the loss of their captain really hurts. Take the Panthers to prosper on the road tonight. |
|||||||
02-16-23 | Wisc-Milwaukee v. Youngstown State UNDER 156.5 | Top | 58-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
This is a high stakes game out in the Horizon League with the two top teams in that conference facing off here. Milwaukee and Youngstown State each come in sporting 12-4 records in conference play. So the winner here will have first place to themselves.
Milwaukee won the first meeting 88-75. They were four-point home underdogs and shot 54% from the field. YSU certainly didn’t help themselves by going 4 of 21 from three-point range.
Both teams can certainly score, but considering the stakes, this is a pretty high total. I expect we’ll see some defense tonight.
I don’t think that this will be a blowout nor do I see both teams scoring 80 points, which is what you’d basically need for this Over to hit. Youngstown State is off an 81-78 loss at Cleveland State (peeking ahead?). They are 5-0 to the Under the L5 times they’ve been off a game where they did not cover the spread. 10* |
|||||||
02-15-23 | Rangers v. Canucks OVER 6.5 | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The Rangers were impressive last time out, winning convincingly against Carolina. That is five straight victories now, with 4 of 5 going over and the Rangers scoring at least four times in each. The Canucks are just 1-4 since the break and have allowed a monstrous 25 goals in those five games. They managed just a trio of goals in the two games against Detroit, while allowing eleven. Since the loss of Demko, Vancouver's goal tending has been exceptionally poor, even allowing for a 31st ranked defense and the league's worst PK in front of them. I do expect something of a bounce back from the Canucks. They'll face Shesterkin in net, but he has been just average since the break. It is the offense, with the addition of Tarasenko, that has been overachieving lately. |
|||||||
02-15-23 | Drake -5.5 v. Northern Iowa | Top | 82-74 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Two teams going in totally opposite directions here. Drake has won seven straight while Northern Iowa has lost five straight.
Northern Iowa even lost to Evansville, the worst team in the Missouri Valley. They also lost at Drake by 7, 88-81. The last two games have seen the Panthers go down by 30 points.
Drake’s last two games have seen them win by 24 and 23. They don’t need to win by nearly that many to cover the spread here. Over the course of the seven-game win streak, Drake has scored 80 or more five times. Northern Iowa just gave up 80 its last time out. I think it’s important to note that Drake didn’t even shoot all that well in the first meeting (41%) and still put up 88 on UNI. 10* |
|||||||
02-15-23 | South Florida v. Tulsa +4.5 | Top | 96-69 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
Tulsa has not been good at home … or really anywhere this season. The Golden Hurricane come into Wednesday night sporting a 5-19 straight up record. Four of those wins have come here at home, but they are just 1-8 ATS at the Donald W Reynolds Center.
Overall, Tulsa has actually been the worst pointspread team in the country this season. They are 3-18-3 ATS in all games! The team’s ONLY win since Christmas came here at home, on January 21st, 81-79 over Tulane.
But I’ll back the Golden Hurricane in this one as a short home dog vs. USF, who has only three wins since Christmas.
The Bulls are 7-1 ATS on the road, but only 2-6 straight up and have yet to be favored in any away game. Two of USF’s top four scorers missed the last game and they lost by 19. The status of both players (Bryant, Tchewa) remains questionable. 10* |
|||||||
02-15-23 | Cavs v. 76ers -2 | Top | 112-118 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
This shapes up to be a pretty important matchup in the Eastern Conference, right before the All-Star Break. Cleveland has the second best point differential in the league, trailing only Boston, but is fourth in the standings and one game behind Philadelphia.
The Cavaliers have won seven in a row. They covered the spread in six of those wins, but then couldn’t quite get the job done for their backers as huge 16-point favorites against San Antonio. They are underdogs here, the first time that’s been the case since a loss at Oklahoma City on 1/27.
You might be surprised to find out that the Cavs are only 3-8 SU and 4-7 ATS when listed as the underdog this season.
Philadelphia has revenge coming into this game. They lost by 28 in Cleveland back in November. The Sixers are 16-5 ATS this season when playing with revenge. They come into tonight on a three-game win streak and are 12-3 SU L15 games. Cleveland also has a losing record on the road. I expect Philly to win and cover tonight. 10* |
|||||||
02-15-23 | Spurs v. Hornets OVER 239.5 | Top | 110-120 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
These have been two of the coldest teams in the entire of NBA of late. San Antonio has lost 13 in a row and just covered for the first time since January 20th (as a 16-point underdog in Cleveland). Charlotte just won for the first time in February. Prior to that, the Hornets had lost seven in a row.
I expect very little defense to be played Wednesday in this battle of also-rans.
The Spurs have the worst defensive rating in the league.They are giving up an average of 125 points/game on the road while letting the opposition shoot 52 percent from the field.
Charlotte has given up 117 or more points in six straight games. Their last game, which again was a win, ended up 144-138. They shot 63% overall from the field and made 54% from three. Even if the Hornets can’t come close to matching those percentages tonight, they will put a bunch of points on the board. The Over is 5-0 this season when they face a team from the Southwest Division. 10* |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Butler v. Villanova -10 | Top | 50-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
This may seem like a lot of points to lay with a Villanova team that is just 12-13 straight up on the season. But it is a revenge spot, at home, and the Wildcats are facing a Butler team in a prime letdown situation following an upset of Xavier over the weekend.
Now healthier, ‘Nova has won two straight. They beat Seton Hall 58-54 over the weekend. That was after crushing DePaul last Wednesday. Justin Moore (missed 20 games) being back is huge for this team.
Butler is coming off two straight two-point victories, one over St. John’s and the other against Xavier. Both of those wins came at home. Previous to that, the Bulldogs had lost five in a row, four of those games being decided by more than 20 points.
As an underdog, Butler has not fared well this season. They are not only 2-12 straight up, but 3-11 against the spread. Butler shot 56.5% from the field in the first meeting vs. Villanova, which won’t happen again here. The team shoots just 40.6% for the season away from home. 10* |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Celtics v. Bucks -8.5 | Top | 125-131 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Boston is going to be shorthanded for this one, which is why the line has moved so dramatically. I’m still going to lay the points though with red hot Milwaukee, who should roll in this one.
The Bucks have won 10 straight and are 23-5 straight up at home. Early on in the season, the problem was the team was not all that healthy. But now Khris Middleton is back and the Bucks’ offensive efficiency has gone way up.
The Celtics’ projected starting five for this matchup is: Derrick White, Sam Hauser, Grant Williams, Al Horford and Robert Williams. We know Jaylen Brown, Marcus Smart and Danilo Galinari are all out. Additionally, Jayson Tatum is listed as doubtful. Basically, I expect the Celtics to wave the proverbial “white flag” tonight. Grant Williams, Robert Williams and Malcolm Brogden are all listed as questionable, by the way.
The Bucks are just 1.5 games back of the Celtics. A win here pulls them even in the loss column. Boston has had Milwaukee’s number in the past, going 12-2 ATS L14 meetings including 6-0 here in Milwaukee. This is a chance for the Bucks to exact some revenge for a 21-point loss on Christmas. Fade a clearly shorthanded Celtics squad here. 10* |
|||||||
02-14-23 | Kent State v. Western Michigan +11.5 | Top | 82-58 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
Kent State has won two in a row since losing to Akron, a result I was on the right side of as my 10* MAC Game of the Year. The Golden Flashes are tied with Toledo atop the conference standings at 10-2.
Western Michigan, on the other hand, is having a pretty terrible year. The Broncos have lost eight in a row while failing to cover seven straight.
But I think that this is too many points for Kent State to be laying on the road. They’ve lost two of their last three road games and the one win, over Buffalo on Saturday, was by just seven points.
You have to figure we’re going to get WMU’s best effort Tuesday night with one of the high-profile teams in the conference coming to Kalamazoo. The Broncos are 9-2-1 ATS in their last 12 games vs. teams with a win percentage of .600 or greater. Take the points here. 10* |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Wizards v. Warriors UNDER 233.5 | Top | 126-135 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
The Wizards have won 8 of their last 11 games and tonight visit the wounded Warriors. No Steph Curry has resulted in the home team losing its last two games. Thus, I could certainly understand the urge to take the points in this Monday night NBA matchup. But I think the Under is the better call. This isn’t the same Warriors team without Curry. They were just 12 of 44 from deep in a 109-103 loss to the Lakers Saturday night. That was here at home. Last month saw these teams combine for 245 points, but 41 of those came from Curry. With the former MVP on the sidelines, the total for this game should be way lower. It was 235 with Curry in the lineup last month. His absence is certainly felt in the spread, but there’s definite value playing the Under. 10* |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Red Wings +112 v. Canucks | Top | 6-1 | Win | 112 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
The Red Wings thrashed the Canucks in the opening game of a home and home series in Detroit. They now meet 2 days later in Vancouver. The Canucks are equally poor at home or away this season. The Red Wings are just .500 on the road. The Canucks defense is still very questionable; they've given up 20 goals in their 4 games since the break, which is even worse than their season's average of 4 per game. While the Red Wings have struggled to score goals this season, They have a big edge on defense and in the net, especially when Husso is playing. He has won 5 of his last 7 games with a save %of .923. The Canucks still have some firepower, but losing Horvat has hurt. Even if Detroit's offense is a little anemic, Vancouver's defense and goalie can make any team's offense look like stars. I am on the Underdog today. Take Detroit to steal this one on the road. |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Prairie View A&M +5.5 v. Grambling State | Top | 64-68 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
Grambling is 9-2 SU its last 11 games, all but two of which have seen them go off as the favorite. Coming into Monday, the Tigers have won and covered three straight. They are favored again here, but it’s worth noting the previous two times they have been on a three-game win streak, the next game ended up being an outright loss. One of those losses was at rival Southern, which was also one of the rare instances of Grambling catching points. The other loss came as a five-point home favorite to Alcorn State. Tonight, the Tigers face a Prairie View A&M team that already beat them, 61-60 back on January 2nd. Prairie View A&M was a 1.5-point favorite in that first matchup, so I’m seeing a little bit of value on them right away for tonight’s rematch. The Panthers have dropped five of seven overall, including a 79-65 loss at Southern over the weekend. But I’m not convinced this spread should be so large. Granted a lot has changed since these teams met in the conference opener. But Grambling has another revenge game on deck (Southern) and may be “looking ahead” to that game on Saturday. We’ve already seen this number get bet down at most shops and I expect that will continue throughout the day. 10* |
|||||||
02-13-23 | Jazz v. Pacers +1.5 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Coming into the season, the Jazz and Pacers were both expected to be among the worst teams in the NBA. They were each projected for just 23.5 wins. As you can see, both have wildly overachieved, already eclipsing their paltry projections. But there can be no denying that both teams have slowed down of late, especially Indiana, who comes into Monday having lost 15 of its last 17 games. Utah has lost four of five. The key for this game though is that Indiana is at home. They are 17-13 straight up and 18-11-1 ATS at Gainbridge Fieldhouse. Utah is only 10-18 straight up on the road. They have a winning ATS record, but that’s because they are usually a dog, which is obviously not the case here. Even if the Pacers are bet to a favorite tonight, I’m sticking with them. (The Jazz are 2-5 SU/ATS as away favorites). The Jazz shook up the roster at the deadline and were down double digits to the Knicks Saturday before a late rally ultimately fell short. 10* |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles -1.5 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 162 h 14 m | Show |
Here it comes! The Eagles and the Chiefs meet up for all the marbles. Mahomes continued his path to possible "GOAT" status with an inspired Conference Final game while obviously playing hurt. So why not another win on Super Sunday? |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Chiefs v. Eagles UNDER 51 | Top | 38-35 | Loss | -110 | 115 h 56 m | Show |
If solid defense wins big games, then KC's best passing offense matches up poorly as it faces the Eagles and their legitimate league's best pass defense in this year's premier situation. Yes, we are talking about Mahomes, but there are enough question marks around the Chiefs' WRs playing at less than full strength as well as Mahomes' ankle issues to suggest that this won't be a Chief's pass attack in top shape. The Eagles absolutely will give Mahomes a much tougher time as far as passer pressure goes. The Eagles also absolutely will run the ball as they did against SF. They ran on 53% of plays and had a huge 62% in time of possession last in their game (58% on average L3). More of a run game from the Chiefs wouldn't surprise me this week. I expect a slower than anticipated game on Sunday with both teams struggling to move the ball as freely than in previous games. I don't expect any more movement on the total, so I am jumping in now and "absolutely" wagering on Super Sunday's total to go under. |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Pistons v. Raptors -10 | Top | 118-119 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 49 m | Show |
The Raptors are curiously 0-7 ATS the last seven meetings with the Pistons and have lost six of the seven games straight up. I look for that to change on Sunday.
The one straight up win came in Detroit, earlier this season, as the Raptors prevailed 115-111.
On Friday, the Pistons needed double overtime to defeat the sorry Spurs 138-131. But that was just their third win in the last month. I have Detroit rated as the third worst team in the NBA, ahead of only the Rockets and Spurs.
Toronto also beat the Spurs this week, albeit much easier, 112-98. They followed that with a loss to Utah in a game that was decided in the fourth quarter. Even though they are 26-31, the Raptors have a positive point differential for the season. They are better than their record and should be able to blow out the Pistons here. 10* |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Robert Morris v. IUPU Ft Wayne -4.5 | Top | 71-64 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 55 m | Show |
Over the last month, Robert Morris has lost three in a row, won three in a row and now lost three in a row again. The Colonials are coming off a tough 57-55 loss at Cleveland State Friday, a game that was decided in the closing seconds. RMU was 4 of 21 from three in the two-point loss.
Fort Wayne also comes into Sunday on a bit of a losing streak. They’ve dropped two straight and four of six. This is a revenge spot for the Mastodons, who lost 75-70 at Robert Morris earlier in the season.
Fort Wayne was a three-point favorite when they made that visit to RMU. I know they lost, but it’s curious we are able to get them so cheap for this rematch.
Robert Morris only averages 64.0 points/game away from home where it is 4-11 straight up. Fort Wayne puts up 81.1 points/game at home. I like the home team to exact some revenge here. I know it’s been a disappointing season, but Fort Wayne was thought to be one of the top Horizon League teams coming into the season and I think we’re getting a discount here. 10* |
|||||||
02-12-23 | Oilers v. Canadiens OVER 6.5 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The Habs are home to the Oilers in an early Sunday game. Both teams played and won on Saturday, the Canadiens in OT and the Oilers easily. That was Montreal's first win in 5 games. The Habs are 3 games under .500 at home. The Oilers, on the other hand, are 8-2 L10, and are a better team on the road this season. Tops in offense and Power Play this season, the Oilers are a threat for a high total in every game. Facing the Canadiens' 28th ranked goals-against and 30th PK, a bevy of Oilers' goals is even more likely. Skinner likely starts for the Oilers. He has impressed this year, but his recent results have been mixed. The Oilers are not always the most dependable team on defense. Allen will start in net for the Canadiens and has been outright leaky of late. Edmonton is 4-1 against Montreal in recent meetings and all of those games have gone over the total I don't believe that Sunday's game will be any different. Wager on the Canadiens and Oilers to go Over. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.