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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-09-17 | Coyotes +1.5 v. Blues | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: The Arizona Coyotes are 2-13-2. giving them not only the worst record among all Western Conference teams but also the worst record in the entire NHL. They travel to St. Louis tonight to take on the Blues, owners of the West's best record at 12-3-1. The Blues' 25 points are just one shy of Atlantic Division leader Tampa Bay, which owns the NHL's best record at 12-2-2 (26 points). The Coyotes limp in 1-8-1 on the road so far, while the Blues are 6-1-0 at home plus come in 8-1-1 in their last 10 overall contests. Ariziona: First-year Arizona head coach Rick Tocchet is trying to take a patient approach to the Coyotes' performance, looking for small ways that the team can improve. Does he have another option? "Been here a couple months and one thing I noticed, I don't want us to be a perimeter team," Tocchet told NHL.com after the Coyotes' most recent loss, 3-1 to the Penguins on Tuesday night in Pittsburgh. "You have to go to the net. You have to be good along the walls. That's something that we as an organization, we have to get better at. I have to teach it better because you can't win in this league unless you have people that go to the net or you win battles along the wall." Surely a bright spot has been the play of 19-year-old rookie Clayton Keller, who has scored 11 goals and contributed six assists. Only one other player on the team has scored more than three goals. No. 1 goaltender Antti Raanta has his work cut out for himself, as with Arizona's 2.4 goals per game ranking 29th in the league and its 28th-ranked penalty kill (only 75.0 percent), he rarely has any margin of error. St. Louis: The Blues have won 12 of their first 16 games of a season for the first time in franchise history while the team's 25 points after that stretch ties a club record. Goalie Jake Allen has stepped up his game with a 5-1-0 mark, 1.84 goals-against average and .933 save percentage in his last six starts. Brayden Schenn, who will play in his 450th career game on Thursday, followed up a four-assist performance in St. Louis' 6-4 win over Toronto on Saturday by joining Vladimir Tarasenko with a three-point effort in a 3-1 triumph at New Jersey three nights later. "It's been fun, two guys with tons of skill," Schenn said of Tarasenko and Jaden Schwartz, a line that has accounted for 16 points (four goals, 12 assists) in the last two games. The pick: The Blues outscored the Coyotes 10-2 en route to winning all three meetings last season, making the results of their head-to-head games in recent yearstotally one-sided. also have been one-sided. St. Louis has won 10 of its past 11 meetings with Arizona plus goalie Jake Allen has turned aside a staggering 174 of 181 shots (.961 SP) to record two shutouts and win all seven career encounters with teh Coyotes, Any chance here for Arizona? Antti Raanta stumbled out of the blocks in his 100th career game on Tuesday, yielding two goals in the first 3:07 of the contest before settling in for the night against the Penguins, in a 3-1 loss. However, he's faced 37 shots in each of his last two games, allowing a modest four goals, for .946 SP. I'm taking the 1 1/2 goals and making Arizona an 8* play. |
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11-09-17 | North Carolina +9.5 v. Pittsburgh | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 52 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: North Carolina opened the season losing to Cal (allowed 35 points) and Louisville (allowed 47 points). The Tar Heels rolled over ODU 53-23 on Sep. 16 but then dropped five straight games (also 0-5 ATS) before hanging tough against Miami on Oct. 28, before losing a sixth consecutive game, 24-19 (UNC covered as a 21-point home dog). The 1-8 Tar Heels (0-6 in the ACC) had last Saturday off and Thursday night travel to Heinz Field against the 4-5 Pittsburgh Panthers (2-3 in the ACC). The Panthers have won their last two games, beating Duke and Virginia, giving them a chance of earning a 10th straight trip to a bowl game with two wins in their last three games. The good news is that North Carolina has just one win this season and limps in on a six-game slide but the bad news is that the Tar Heels have won the last four games in the series and since 2013, are the only team the Panthers have not defeated in the Coastal division. North Carolina: The Tar Heels played hard against the 'Canes, out-gaining Miami 428-415 in yards but had four giveaways. North Carolina hasn't done much offensively, except in the team's lone win, when they scored 53 points. Despite that output, North Carolina is averaging just 21.3 PPG (110th) on 344.2 YPG (109th). Nathan Elliot replaced injured starter Chazz Surratt in the first half of the Miami game at QB, completing 16-of-39 passes for 173 yards with a touchdown and three interceptions. However, he also ran for 79 yards and caught a 33-yard pass. Both Surratt and particularly Harris (1 TDP / 8 INTs) have struggled. Defensively, North Carolina is allowing 33.4 PPG (105th) on 447.1 YPG (111th). Pittsburgh: In the team's back-to-back wins, the Panthers may just have finally found a replacement for RB James Conner. Conner ran for 3,733 yards on 5.6 YPC during his four-year career with the Panthers, including a 1,765-yard, 26 TD season in 2014. Darrin Hall is a junior who had carried the ball only 131 times in 2 1/2 years but broke out for 254 yards in Pitt’s 24-17 victory at Duke on Oct. 21 and followed that up with 111 yards on 25 carries in a 31-14 victory against Virginia on Oct. 28. Quarterback Ben DiNucci looks to have the No. 1 job now, although he's no better than Browne (Pitt ranks 77th with 218.4 YPG through the air). The Pitt D has allowed 27.9 PPG (74th) on 425.0 YPG (94th). The pick: The Tar Heels do enter on a six-game slide but their last game vs. unbeaten Miami (currently No. 7 in the CFP rankings) showed the team can compete. Meanwhile, despite back-to-back wins, Pittsburgh is just 5-13 ATS its last 18 games at home. Don't forget, North Carolina has won the last four games in the series. Make the Tar Heels a 10* play. |
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11-08-17 | Wolves +11 v. Warriors | Top | 101-125 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
Minnesota: The T-wolves believe their team is only scratching the surface. "This is still a work in progress," Teague told the Minneapolis Star Tribune. "We're still trying to figure out each other. It can be a lot better. We all know that. We're starting to get into a groove here. But we have miles to go to be the team we want to be." Teague recorded 18 points and 12 assists in a 112-94 win over the Charlotte Hornets on Sunday to continue his own groove with a fourth double-double in five games. Karl-Anthony Towns leads in scoring (21.8) and rebounding (10.9), while Wiggins checks in right behind him at 19.9 PPG (also 4.6 RPG). The two new 'key' additions are Butler and Teague. Butler checks in at 15.1-5.2-4.0 and Teague at 13.4 & a team-high 8.4 APG. Minnesota is averaging 109.4 PPG (7th) but allowing 109.8 PPG (25th). Golden State: The Warriors wow their fans with their offensive exploits and that's the case again this season. Golden State is No. 1 in scoring (118.5 PPG), FG percentage (51.2%) and three-point shooting (40.9%). You may just have heard of Durant, Curry, Thompson and Green. The Warriors led the NBA in defensive FG percentage en route to the championship last season gut ranks sixth in the early going this season (44.0%) and more troubling, 22nd in scoring D (108.5 PPG). The pick: The Warriors have righted their ATS 'ship,' covering four in a row after a 1-6 ATS start but the T-wolves are enjoying the franchise's first five-game winning streak since 2009. The Warriors have beaten the Timberwolves in 17 of the past 20 meetings. However, this year's team surely looks more than ready to end a streak which has seen them miss the playoffs for each of the last 13 seasons. The T-wolves may have lost three of four to the Warriors last season but covered three of the four, including winning outright once here in Oakland. Take the points and make Minnesota an 8* play. |
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11-08-17 | Lakers +9 v. Celtics | Top | 96-107 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost Gordan Hayward to a season-ending injury in Game 1 of the current season and then lost Game 2 to the Bucks. However, they then became the first team in NBA history to lose its first two games and then win its next seven. Boston didn't stop there though, as Monday Boston made in nine straight wins with 110-107 victory in Atlanta. Boston's puts its winning streak and the NBA's best overall record (9-2) on the line tonight, when the 5-5 LA Lakers invade TD Garden. At .500, the Lakers can't be too unhappy (coming off seasons of 27, 21, 17 and 26 wins) rookie PG Lonzo Ball is shooting 29.9 percent from the floor on the season, including 23.4 percent on threes. LA Lakers: Ball will have to learn to shoot but he is averaging 6.9 assists and 6.4 rebounds in 33 minutes, leading the team in both categories. He handed out nine assists in Sunday's 107-102 win over Memphis but he went 1-of-8 from three-point range in that game. “He’s been a little down on himself a little bit with the season he’s having,” fellow rookie Kyle Kuzma told the LA Daily News of Ball. "Of course he wants to play a lot better. I just try to tell him to be more aggressive on the floor. ... Once he’s confident in his game he’s pretty hard to guard." Kuzma has had no problem scoring and shooting well, as he has taken over the rookie scoring load for the Lakers by averaging 13.4 PPG on the season, while shooting 56.2 percent from the floor. Boston: Monday's win over Atlanta snapped a string of eight straight games of holding opponents under 100 points for the Celtics, who lead the NBA in scoring defense at 94.5 PPG. Boston could have drafted Ball with the No. 1 overall pick but instead traded down to the No. 3 spot and picked up forward Jayson Tatum, who is averaging 14.3 points on 50.0 percent shooting, including 52.9 percent from three-point range. The Celtics are getting contributions from everyone on the roster, but Kyrie Irving (22.3 & 5.7 APG) is the unquestioned team leader plus veteran center Al Horford had his fourth double-double of the campaign on Monday. He is averaging 14.6 PPG and 9.2 RPG, while shooting 47.4 percent from beyond the arc. The pick: the TD Garden always presents a hostile environment for the Lakers but they have improved their defense, which ranked dead last a year ago but was 11th in efficiency into last weekend. LA allowed 111.5 PPG last season but it's down to 107.3 PPG so far this season, which ranks 20th. The Ball-led offense remains a work in progress as Luke Walton tinkers with lineup combos but while Ball averages just 8.8 PPG, seven other Lakers are averaging in double digits (newly acquired center Brook Lopez leads with 16.4 PPG). One can't argue with the Celtics' 9-2 SU & ATS record but the Lakers come into this game having covered four in a row and I expect them to 'hang around' the number here in Boston. Make the Lakers an 8* play. |
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11-08-17 | Bruins v. Rangers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Rangers opened 1-5-0 but have battled back to earn points in eight of their last 10 games (6-2-2), after rallying for a 5-3 victory over Columbus on Monday. “Even when we were losing, we were in games - right there to go after the win - and we didn’t have the confidence to do that,” New York defenseman Marc Staal told the New York Post. “I think this last stretch, we’ve found ways to make plays to win them. That’s the biggest difference.” The Bruins have points in seven of eight (4-1-3), despite missing several key players with injuries and illness.After a 2-3-0 start, Boston is now 6-4-3. New York hosts Boston tonight at MSG, looking to extend its winning streak to five in a row and with having beaten the Bruins five straight times, the Rangers shouldn't be lacking any confidence. Boston: Since a 3-1 loss in Las Vegas on Oct. 15, the Bruins are 4-1-3 and had one of their best showings of the season in a 5-3 win against the Minnesota Wild on Monday. The team's current run has come while battling significant injuries. The win against the Wild came without Brad Marchand, David Krejci and David Backes. Marchand shares the team lead at 14 points with David Pastrnak but did not travel to New York but could potentially meet the team for the game in Toronto on Friday. Anders Bjork joined Pastrnak and Patrice Bergeron on the top line against Minnesota while center David Krejci (six points, six games) was placed on injured reserve after missing seven games with a back injury. NY Rangers: New York has 27 goals in its six games and its power play is beginning to click, as the Rangers have converted 7-of-19 power play opportunities in the past five outings.New York's powr play is 6-for-13 over the past four games plus it sure doesn't hurt that they are also 8-for-8 on the penalty kill in that four-game span, as well. Mika Zibanejad had three assists Monday and leads the team with 17 points while defenseman Kevin Shattenkirk boasts three goals and five assists during a five-game point streak. The pick: The Rangers are starting to feel like the team some thought would be playoff-bound before the season "It's high. It should be," Rangers center Mika Zibanejad said of the Rangers' confidence. "I think we talked about that early on and especially after the second period that if we want to be a good team we have to find ways to win the game even though we are down. We did that and I think obviously the past three games helps that confidence and helps that feeling in the locker room of even if we are down coming into the third to be able to come back. It was important." Boston's Tuukka Rask owns a .923 save percentage in 20 career games against the Rangers but so far this season, he's 0-2-1 on the road. New York's Henrik Lundqvist comes in with a 3.07 GAA & .900 SP, after allowing seven goals on 59 shots his last two (.881 SP). The Over is a 10* play. |
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11-08-17 | Kent State v. Western Michigan OVER 46.5 | Top | 20-48 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Western Michigan Broncos welcome the Kent State Golden Flashes to Kalamazoo in another Wednesday night football game in the MAC. Western Michigan lost to in-state rival Central Michigan 35-28 at home last Wednesday but at 5-4 (3-2 in the MAC West), the Broncos are just one win away from being bowl-eligible for the fourth consecutive season. As for Kent State, the Golden Flashes were embarrassed at home a week ago Tuesday, losing at home 44-16 to Bowling Green. Kent is now 2-7, including 1-4 in the MAC East. Kent State: Bowling Green was not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS heading into last Tuesday's game at Kent State. The Falcons were averaging only 20.5 PPG but scored 44 points on yards, including 251 rushing yards. To say the least, it was a low point for Kent State's season. Actually, Kent State's entire season has been a low point, as the not so-Golden Flashes rank dead-last (130th) in scoring at 10.7 PPG and 129th in total yards at 253.4 per game. When one's defense allows 34.1 PPG (107th) on 436.3 YPG (102nd), one's offense has to score more than 10-plus PPG! Western Michigan: The Broncos were 13-1 last year under P.J. Fleck but he's now 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota. The Broncos suffered a tough loss last week at home to Central Michigan, blowing a 21-7 halftime lead in which the Broncos had out-gained the Chippewas 269-82 (CMU had just two FDs at the half!). Western Michigan's Jarvion Franklin fumbled early in the fourth quarter and Jonathan Ward pulled Central Michigan to 28-21 on a 29-yard touchdown run. CMU blocked a punt on Western Michigan's next possession and Ward's 35-yard run on first down set up Eric Cooper's touchdown grab in the end zone to tie it at 28 with 5:50 left. CMU got the ball back with 2:47 left at its 23 and QB Shane Morris threw a 77-yard touchdown pass to Corey Willis with 2:37 remaining. Western Michigan turned it over on downs near midfield and Ward ran for a first down to run out the clock. The loss of starting QB Wassink has certainly been a blow to WMU but Bronco RB Franklin’s 228 YR in loss vs. Central Mich bodes well against Kent State rush D allowing 5.4 YPC. The pick: With KSU's pathetic offense, going over may seem risky but I did just that last week in the BG/KSU game. I'll 'go to the well' again here while noting that the over is 10-2 in Western Michigan's last 12 home games. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-07-17 | Grizzlies v. Blazers -3.5 | Top | 98-97 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: The 6-4 Memphis Grizzlies visit Moda Center tonight for a matchup with the 6-4 Portland Trail Blazers. The Grizzlies beat the Los Angeles Clippers 113-104 Saturday but lost to the Los Angeles Lakers 107-102 Sunday to open a five-game road trip that continues Tuesday against the Blazers. Portland enters off two close home wins, 113-110 on Thursday against the Lakers and then 103-99 over the Thunder on Sunday. Memphis: The Grizzlies have to be sick about losing to the Lakers. Memphis roared back from a 22-point deficit to close to within 103-102 inside the final minute before the Lakers closed out the win, 107-102. "We just waited too long to have a sense of urgency," said PG Mike Conley, who led the Grizzlies with 23 points. "We have to do better, especially on the second of back-to-back games. We didn't start the way we wanted to. You can't spot any team in this league that many points. We didn't have what it took early on." Conley (18.4 & 4.0 APG) notes that he has seen mixed results from a roster in transition. "I have been pleased with our effort. I think our team is learning," he said. "We still have a very long way to go, we have a lot of young guys who are learning the game. We are trying to do our best to bring everybody up to speed but we are going to have nights where we don't seem to have everything going for us." One newcomer who is thriving is veteran guard Tyreke Evans (17.1 PPG), who has posted three straight 20-point outings and is averaging 26 points on 59.2 percent shooting during the hot stretch. Veteran center Marc Gasol had 15 points and 10 rebounds against the Lakers for his fifth double-double of the season and checks in leading the team in scoring (19.9) and rebounding (9.3). Portland: Guard Damian Lillard is on a scoring spree and the Portland star looks to top 30 points for the fifth straight game when the Trail Blazers host the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday. Lillard is averaging 34.3 points during his run, and tallied 36 points in Portland's 103-99 win over the Oklahoma City Thunder on Sunday. Lillard is averaging 27.1-5.4-6.6 on the season, teaming with fellow guard McCollum (22.1 & 4.7) to give the Blazers one of the league's top backcourts. Portland is also receiving solid offensive play from center Jusuf Nurkic (16.0 & 7.8), who has played especially well over the past three games while averaging 24 points, eight rebounds and 3.3 assists and shooting 60.4 percent from the floor. The pick: Conley is recovering from a recent quad strain and doesn't quite seem 100 percent. The Grizz allow just 98.1 PPG (3rd) on 42.2% shooting (1st) but have trouble scoring, averaging only 101.8 PPG (24th). However, shutting down Lillard and McCollum is quite a task plus Portland is allowing almost 10 fewer points per 100 possessions than it did last season. Make the Blazers a 10* play. |
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11-07-17 | Bowling Green +8 v. Buffalo | Top | 28-38 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: UB Stadium is the venue for tonight's latest weekday game from the MAC, as the 3-6 Buffalo Bulls (1-4 in the MAC East) host the 2-7 Bowling Green Falcons (2-3 in the MAC East). Neither team will threaten 7-2 Ohio or 5-4 Akron, which are both 4-1 and in a tie for first in the East. However, Bowling Green is coming off a 44-16 win last week (just its second of the season), while Buffalo lost 21-20 at Akron, falling for a fourth straight time (all in MAC play), after opening the season 3-2 (1-0 in the MAC). Bowling Green: Mike Jinks is in just his second season as head coach at Bowling Green and was not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS heading into last Tuesday game at Kent State. The Falcons were averaging only 20.5 PPG, so the team's 44 points were a welcome sight, as were the team's 251 rushing yards plus the play of freshman QB Jarrett Doege. James Morgan started the last seven games of the 2016 season at QB for Bowling Green and was instrumental in the Falcons’ three-game winning streak to end the season. It was expected hat he would build on that performance but the exact opposite has been the case. He's completed just 45.3 percent of his passes with nearly as many interceptions (seven) as TD passes (nine). Morgan was benched in favor of freshman Doege who relieved Morgan in a 49-7 loss at Northwestern and then made his first start the following week at Middle Tennessee St. He showed good accuracy (63.5 percent completion rate) and had some success running the offense but then suffered a back injury in his second start against Akron. Morgan took over and led the Falcons to a 37-29 victory on the road against Miami (Ohio) in the next game, but gave way to another freshman, Grant Loy, in an Oct. 21st 48-17 blowout home loss to Northern Illinois. Doege was healthy last week and was an efficient 14-18 for 174 yards and two TDs (no INTs). The defense entered that game allowing 37.8 PPG on 526.5 YPG, so the 16 poits on 284 yards allowed were also welcome sights. Buffalo: The Bulls last played on Oct. 28th (final Saturday of Oct.) and while they out-gained Akron 454-367 (with almost 34 minutes of possession time), they lost 21-20. QB Tyree Jackson connected on 34-of-50 for 313 yards and an interception while Emmanuel Reed gave Buffalo a presence on the ground with 116 yards and two TDs on the ground. The pick. You'll get no argument from me that Buffalo is the better team but I'm not sure just why one would want to lay more than a TD with a team on a four-game slide. Also, consider this. The underdog is 10-2 ATS in the last 12 meetings between these two schools with the road team going 9-2 ATS in the last 11 meetings. BG is the underdog and the road team in this one, so make Bowling Green a 10* play. |
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11-07-17 | Pelicans v. Pacers OVER 217.5 | Top | 117-112 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Indiana Pacers opened a three-game road trip with a 124-107 win at Cleveland on Nov. 1 but limp back home after dropping the final two stops of the trip at Philadelphia and New York. The 5-5 New Orleans Pelicans visit the Pacers on Tuesday, coming off back-to-back road wins. However, full disclosure means it must be noted that the road victories did come over 1-10 Dallas and 2-6 Chicago. New Orleans: The Pelicans have not reached 100 points in any of their last four games. Antonio Davis (27.4 & 12.7) and DeMarcus Cousins (28.6 & 13.7) combined for 52 points and 27 rebounds in Saturday's 96-90 overtime win at Chicago but both played more than 40 minutes and the playing time is becoming a concern. "We're asking a lot of those guys, especially (Davis) and DeMarcus playing those kind of minutes," New Orleans head coach Alvin Gentry told reporters. "... It's kind of a catch-22. Do you take them out? Or, do you try to win games and then try to find rest for them? We chose to leave them in and try to win the game." Davis logged over 40 minutes in each of the last four games and six of 10 while Cousins hit the mark three times already. Guards Holiday (13.50 and Moore (10.2) are the Pelicans' only other double digit scorers. New Orleans is scoring 105.2 PPG (15th) and allowing 105.6 PPG (15th), which makes it no surprise that the team is off to a 5-5 start! Indiana: The Pacers (5-5, just like the Pelicans) come in averaging 110.3 PPG (4th) on 48.0 percent shooting (3rd) but are questioning their defense after squandering a 19-point lead in a 108-101 loss at the New York Knicks on Sunday, during which they were outscored 36-17 in the fourth quarter. "You need to have these wins," power forward Thaddeus Young told the team's website. "You can say it's a long season, but these are the ones that come back and hurt." On the season, the defense is allowing 109.1 PPG (24th) on 47.7 percent shooting (29th). Oladipo leads in scoring at 23.8 PPG but the real good news is that starting center Myles Turner, who recorded 21 points and 14 rebounds in the season opener, finally returned these last two games, after sitting out seven games with a head injury. He had a total of 26 points and 13 rebounds in the two road losses. Domantas Sabonis posted double-digit rebounds in six straight games while starting in place of Turner and is one of six Indiana player averaging in double figures in scoring. The pick: The Pacers actually played well without Turner and it has to be disappointing that they lost in each of his two games back. However, there is no doubt Indiana is a better team with Turner. The Pacers are scoring well but defending poorly and I believe Davis and Cousins (or Cousins and Davis, if you prefer), will have their way scoring inside after the Pacers were out-rebounded by the Knicks 52-41. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-07-17 | Coyotes v. Penguins UNDER 6 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins are looking to snap out of a funk that has seen them drop four of their last five contests, all on the road. Pittsburgh (8-6-2) returns home tonight to face the Arizona Coyotes, who have gone 2-2-1 their last five games but had opened 0-10-1! Arizona: It's safe to say that the Coyotes have played better of late, as it's pretty difficult to play worse than opening 0-10-1. Yes, they've earned five points in their last five games earning five points in their last five games (2-2-1) but did cough up a two-goal lead in losing at Washington 3-2 in overtime on Monday. Rookie Clayton Keller scored his 11th goal in the loss and has scored five times in the last seven contests to push his team-leading point total to 16. Scott Wedgewood made 37 saves in the loss at Washington, but No. 1 goaltender Antti Raanta is expected to be back in net after turning aside 36 shots in a 2-1 shootout win over Carolina on Saturday. Pittsburgh: The Pens are coming off a 1-3-1 road trip but return to PPG Paints Arena with a four-game home winning streak intact. However, the team needs to start scoring, as Pittsburgh has managed just 13 goals in an eight-game span. The Penguins are averaging 2.63 goals per game (26th) after leading the NHL last season with 3.39 per game. Sidney Crosby has no goals in the past eight games,and fellow offensive star Phil Kessel has a six-game goal drought. Five of the team’s eight scores in the last five games have come on the power play. Evgeni Malkin has scored four of his six goals with the man advantage to lead the club. Malkin has registered 15 points, one behind team leader Phil Kessel (Crosby is next with 13). Matt Murray, whose next win will be the 50th of his career, has dropped three of his last four decisions - allowing four goals twice - after starting the season 7-1-1. The pick: Pittsburgh is second in the league on the power play, converting 28.8 percent and while it's difficult to see this team's offensive woes continuing, who wants to predict just when it will end. Arizona is just 1-7-1 on the road but the price is prohibitive. Expect a bounce-back from Murray and make the Under an 8* play. |
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11-06-17 | Lions v. Packers OVER 43.5 | Top | 30-17 | Win | 100 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Packers and Bears are the NFL's oldest rivalry but the Lions/Packers are not exactly unfamiliar with each other (this will be the series' 115th meeting, with the Packers owing a 60-40-4 edge). The Lions are 3-4 on the season but limp into Lambeau Field having lost four of their last five for tonight's Week 9 MNF matchup with the Aaron Rodgers-less Green Bay Packers. The Packers lost their Week 6 game at Minnesota and more devastatingly, lost Rodgers to a season-ending injury. In the team's first game without Rodgers (a Week 7 game at home vs. the Saints), Green Bay lost 26-19 with backup QB Brett Hundley proving he was nowhere near ready for primetime (12 of 25 for 87 yards without a TD and with one INT). The Packers had a much-needed bye in Week 8 and at 4-3, will now host the Lions. Both teams (surely the loser of this game) are in danger of losing touch with the NFC North's leader, the 6-2 Vikings (enjoying their bye week). Detroit: The Lions opened 2-0 but enter on a three-game losing streak (four losses in their last five), after losing 20-15 at home against the Steelers a week ago Sunday night. QB Stafford threw for 423 yards on 27 of 45 passing as Golden Tate didn't let an ailing shoulder slow him down as he recorded seven receptions for the second straight game. However, Detroit was only able to rush for 71 yards on 22 carries and failing to run the ball effectively is something that's been a recurring problem for Detroit, as the Lions come into this contest averaging 82.1 YPG (3.5 YPC) on the ground (28th). In fact, it has been 59 games since the Lions have had a 100-yard rusher (Reggie Bush versus Green Bay in 2013). Green Bay: The Packers are off a bye but also off back-to-back losses (falling from 4-1 to 4-3) and while Hundley looked overwhelmed by the challenge in his role as a starter, he was hardly the only problem the Packers had in their Week 7 game with the Saints. The Pack's defense would allow 485 yards of total offense to New Orleans while letting the Saints rack up almost 37 minutes of possession in the game. Hundley will face a Detroit defense tonight which owns 10 interceptions and 16 overall takeaways, ranking third-best in the league. The pick; To say that Detroit has had trouble winning at Green Bay is a huge understatement. Yes, the Lions won in Lambeau in 2015 but the team's last previous win there was back in 1991!. The Lions never got into the end zone vs. the Steelers, settling for five FGs (going 0-for-5 in scoring a TD in the red zone for that game, dropped Detroit to 28th in red zone TD efficiency). However, against an always excellent Pittsburgh D, the Lions were able to gain 485 yards. Stafford is used to carrying the Detroit offense and it's unlikely that Detroit's red zone issues will haunt them again in this one. As for Green Bay, Hundley can't possibly be as bad as he showed vs. the Saints and the bye week should have been a big help. "Me and Aaron talk a lot," Hundley told reporters on Thursday. "Even when he was playing, we still talked a lot. It's the same - now it's a different type of talk. He's telling me stuff, and it's good for me. Aaron's always been a brother to me. Whenever you have people like that around, you always feel better." Make the Over a 10* play. |
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11-06-17 | Celtics -8.5 v. Hawks | Top | 110-107 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics may have lost Gordon Hayward for the season in their first game but it's nearly impossible to imagine the team getting off to a better start even if Hayward was playing. The Celtics pulled away from the Magic on Sunday in Orlando, posting a 104-88 victory to extend the team's winning streak to eight games. Speaking of an eight-game streak, the Hawks opened the season with a victory but then lost eight in a row, before ending their skid with Sunday's 117-115 over the Cavs in Cleveland (what to make of the Cavs, so far?) The pick: Atlanta coach Budenholzer said "To get a win in Cleveland is not easy to do" but we may want to remind him that the Cavs are just 4-6 on the season, including 2-4 at home. The Hawks may be at home in this one but they are 0-3 SU at home so far, going 2-8 SU & 3-6-1 ATS on the season, overall. Meanwhile, Boston's owns the NBA's best overall record (8-2 SU & 9-1 ATS), including going 5-1 SU and 6-0 ATS on the road, Make Boston a 10* play. |
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11-06-17 | Golden Knights v. Maple Leafs UNDER 6.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: The NHL newest expansion team, the Vegas Golden Knights, were given a nice break by the schedule-makers. Vegas opened with back-to-back road games but then returned to Las Vegas for a seven-game homestand covering three weeks! Vegas won its first two games, then went 6-1-0 on the homestand to reach 8-1-0. However, as the team faces its final two games of its first significant road trip of six games, the Golden Knights hope to build off Saturday's 5-4 win Saturday in Ottawa, after losing the frist three games of the trip. Vegas will be in Toronto tonight, taking on the 8-7-0 Maple Leafs at the Air Canada Centre. Toronto is opening a three-game homestand, after winning just once on its four-game trip. The Maple Leafs have lost five of six overall, after Saturday's 6-4 setback in St. Louis. Vegas: Maxime Lagace recorded his first career victory Saturday despite allowing four goals on 28 shots. He is Vegas' fourth starting goaltender already this season following injuries to Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion), Malcolm Subban (lower body) and Oscar Dansk (lower body). The three losses did not shake the new team's belief in itself, according to center Jonathan Marchessault. "Nobody was panicking. We've been playing well as a team. Everyone's trying to stay loose. After three games like that, everyone could've tied up their sticks. But we know we're a good team, and we have a lot of experienced guys in the room who aren't going to let things get away from us." Toronto: Auston Matthews apparently is not allowing himself to be plagued by the sophomore jinx, as he has followed his Calder Trophy-winning season by recording 10 goals and 18 points - both team highs - in 15 contests.However, the Maple Leafs have allowed a total of 11 goals in their last two games.The Maple Leafs are glad to be home after completing a 1-3 road trip. "We've got to go home and have an off-day (Sunday) and get regrouped and get back on track," Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock said after the game Saturday. "We were sitting pretty good a week ago or 10 days ago, or however long it was. Now, we've got to get back on track and get things fixed up and get playing good and get some swagger back in our game." The pick: The Golden Knights won eight of their first nine games, while the Maple Leafs won seven of their first nine games. Both teams are struggling to get back on track here. While both teams have been 'over' clubs so far (combined 18-9-1 to the over), I see this as a lower-scoring contest. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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11-05-17 | Thunder v. Blazers +2.5 | Top | 99-103 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Thunder squandered an 18-point lead in a 101-94 Friday home loss to the Celtics, indicating that there is still some work to be done in blending their trio of superstars on both ends of the court. OKC will take a 4-4 record into Portland on Sunday night, where they'll meet the 5-4 Blazers. Portland ended a brief two-game skid on Thursday, but just barely! A late three-pointer from Damian Lillard allowed the Blazers to escape with a 113-110 home win over the Lakers. Oklahoma City: Blending Russell Westbrook with newcomers Paul George and Carmelo Anthony was never expected to be seamless. That was sure the case Friday, as OKC seemingly had Boston on the ropes but squandered an 18-point lead. "It's good to struggle now, this is our first year together," Paul George told reporters. "This is a long run, we'll be fine. We're starting to shoot it well, we're starting to find some rhythm. We're starting to figure out how to attack and be aggressive. ... we'll be totally fine." Anthony told reporters after the contest, “We took the foot off the gas a little bit,” . “We didn’t put a full game together tonight." Anthony went 1-of-12 from the floor in the second half and finished with a season-low 10 points. As everyone knows, Westbrook averaged a triple-double for eth eyar last season but hsi line reads 19.5-9.4-11.8, so far through eight games. Portland: “It’s good to get a close game win," Portland head coach Terry Stotts told reporters. “We need that, especially on the heels of not only last night but some of the other games. Dame’s shot was huge. He really carried us in the second half." The bckcourt duo of Lillard (26.1-5.4-5.9) and McCollum (22.1 & 4.9) is set but Portland has been searching for an inside scorer to compliment them since LaMarcus Aldridge left. Center Jusuf Nurkic is trying to prove he can be"the man" and scored 28 points on 12-of-20 shooting in Thursday's win and is averaging 15.0 points and 7.8 rebounds. Portland: Not only is Westbrook averaging more than 12 PPG less this season but his percentages from the floor (.453 from .425) and the three-point line (.375 from .343), are also down. The Blazers got the best of the Thunder last season, taking three of the four and while Westbrook clearly has more help this season, it's yet to be determined how that will all play out. Make Portland a 10* play. |
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11-05-17 | Devils v. Flames -170 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The surprising New Jersey Devils have opened 9-3-0, after missing the playoffs in each of the last five seasons since the team made the Stanley Cup Finals back in 2012. New Jersey looks to wrap up a road trip tonight in Calgary, after suffering its first road loss of the campaign on Friday, a 6-3 setback at Edmonton (Devils are 5-1-0 on the road). Calgary has not scored more than two goals in seven straight games but stellar play from goalie Mike Smith has helped the Flames earn three victories in that stretch. Calgary welcomes New Jersey to town at 7-6-0 overall, but just 3-4-0 at home. New Jersey: “Our record (9-3-0), we’ve got to be proud of that and take confidence in that,” New Jersey left wing Taylor Hall told reporters. “At the same time, we were 9-3-3 last year and finished in 27th place (overall in the NHL). We’ve got a lot to learn and a lot to improve on. If you look at the last two games, we were out-shot, outplayed. We’ve got to figure it out quickly and get healthy at the same time.” Hall has risen to the top of the scoring list for New Jersey with 16 points after posting three goals and four assists in his last four contests, while Brian Gibbons has scored a team-high six goals. Cory Schneider is 6-2-0 but owns a 3.05 GAA (.916 SP). Tonight, backup Keith Kinkaid (3-1-0, 2.62 GAA &.910 SP) is expected to get the start against the Flames. Calgary: Speaking of goaltending, Mike Smith owns a 7-5-0 record, 2.19 GAA and a .936 save percentage, having played in 12 of Calgary’s first 13 games. He has won three of his last four after a brilliant performance against the Penguins on Thursday (2-1 OT win in which he saved 43 of 44 shots!). “That was one of the best goalie performances I’ve seen in a long time,” coach Glen Gulutzan told reporters. “It gives you confidence going into any building. … When you know you have a goalie like that, and you’re sitting on the bench playing, there is a sense of assurance that you’ve got a guy in there that’s battling every night.” The pick: Calgary has won seven of the last nine meetings between the two teams and this is New Jersey's third road game in five nights. Make Calgary an 8* play. |
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11-05-17 | Raiders -3 v. Dolphins | Top | 27-24 | Push | 0 | 99 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-3 Miami Dolphins are 'licking their wounds' from a 40-0 loss at Baltimore in Week 8's Thursday night game, as they get set to welcome the Oakland Raiders to Miami Gardens and Hard Rock Stadium on Sunday evening. The Oakland Raiders know all about disappointment, as after opening the 2017 season at 2-0, the Raiders have lost five of six, with the team's lone win coming when Oakland scored on the game's final play of a 31-30 victory over the Chiefs in Week 7 (also, a Thursday night game). Oakland: Derek Carrr (64.6% with 12 TDs and 6 INTs / 90.9 QB rating) has only missed one game but he's clearly not 100 percent.Carr followed up his 417-yard explosion versus Kansas City with a 313-yard effort against Buffalo but he also tossed two interceptions for the third time in five contests. He'd love some help from his running game but Lynch has been a bust and Oakland ranks 26th with 88.0 YPG on the ground. The Raiders scored 26 at Tennessee and 42 at home vs. the Jets in opening 2-0 but are averaging a modest 21.1 PPG on the season (20th). Oakland did score 31 in the team's lone win (KC) in its last six games but the Oakland offense has averaged a woeful 13.4 PPG in its five losses. The defense has also been an issue, allowing 27 points or more in four of its last six games (1-5 stretch). Miami: The Dolphins lost two of their first three games (Week 1 contest was postponed due to Hurricane Irma) but then beat the Titans, Falcons and Jets, before falling to Baltimore 40-0 in their last appearance. Jay Cutler sat out vs. Baltimore due to multiple cracked ribs, with Matt Moore going 25 of 44 for only 176 yards with two picks! There is plenty to criticize regarding Cutler but it's good news for Miami fans that he's expected to play in this one. However, not only does Miami rank 31st in rushing yards at 76.3 YPG (just 3.2 YPC), but the Dolphins just traded away RB Ajayi (465 yards), who had accounted for 87 percent of the team's rushing yards in 2017 (you explain that to me?). The pick: Clearly, the Raiders are not the "up and coming team ready to break out" that many thought they would be but even though Oakland is 3-5 and Miami 4-3, I still see the Raiders as a better team than the Dolphins. Miami rans dead-last (32nd) in both scoring (13.1 PPG) and total offense (252.4 YPG). Cutler is back under center (an improvement but not by much) and the running game (a disaster) now doesn't even have a featured back. What's more, the defense comes in having allowed 68 points over its last two games. Miami's had very little of a home field edge (7-11-1 ATS the last two-plus seasons), while the Raiders entered 2017 on a 12-4 TS run on the road the previous two seasons, before going 1-3 ATS away from home to open this season. I'm sticking with my belief that Oakland is the better team and I'll make the Raiders an 8* play. |
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11-05-17 | Jazz v. Rockets -6.5 | Top | 110-137 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Of the handful teams which attempted to upgrade their rosters in the off-season in an attempt to compete with the Warriors, the Houston Rockets are off to the best start. Houston's 119-104 victory at Atlanta on Friday gives them an NBA-best 6-1 record on the road and the team's overall 7-3 mark is tops in the Western Conference and behind only the 7-2 Boston Celtics, among all NBA teams. The Rockets will be home tonight though, when they welcome the 5-4 Utah Jazz to the Toyota Center. . The Jazz opened 5-0 at home but the team's hot start came to an end with a 109-100 loss to Toronto on Friday in Salt Lake City. The Jazz will visit the Rockets, who are just 1-2 at home, looking for their first road win of the young season (0-3). Utah: The Jazz allowed 109 points to Toronto, the team's worst defensive scoring performance of the season. "Well, it wasn't the best defensive effort. That's got to be there for us," head coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "A lot of individual breakdowns where guys were getting beat put us in some compromising positions and they were able to score. We're not going to win if we don't play defense better than that." Utah comes into thsi contest allowing 96.0 PPG (2nd) and the team relies on its defense, as the Jazz are scoring a modest 98.1 PPG, to rank 27th. Houston: The Rockets preceded their 15-point victory over the Hawks on Friday with an 18-point win over the Knicks on Wednesday. Houston made 19 three-pointers against the Knicks, then made 16 more vs. the Hawks. Houston jacked up 146 three-pointers over the last three games and is beginning to make a few more after some early accuracy issues. James Harden has averaged 29.7 points and 19.0 assists to lead the charge these last three games. Harden is averaging 26.8 PPG and 9.4 APG on the season, while the team's main off-season acquisition, Chris Paul, hasn't gotten back on the court since leaving with an injury in the team's season-opener. Center Clint Capela leads the NBA in FG percentage (69.0%), averaging 13.2 PPG and 10.9 RPG. The pick: Utah has won and covered two of last three visits to Toyota Center. (had lost eight of nine prior to that) but remember, Gordon Hayward (27 PPG vs. Rockets) and G George Hill (22 PPG) left via free agency. After enduring a schedule that featured seven road games over a 10-game stretch, the Rockets will host the Jazz tonight, in the first of three successive home games and nine in 12 games at Houston, overall. The Jazz are 0-3 SU on the road, losing at Minnesota, the LA Clippers and Phoenix. It doesn't get any easier, here. Make Houston an 8* play. |
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11-05-17 | Chiefs v. Cowboys | Top | 17-28 | Loss | -110 | 95 h 45 m | Show |
Update: Elliott will play, but I'm still on the Chiefs! The set-up: The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play. However, KC got back on the winning track this past Monday with a 29-19 home win over the Broncos. KC used a combo of five FGs and five turnovers (a fumble was returned 45 yards for a TD) in moving to 6-2 at the season's mid-point. KC is 'sitting pretty" in the AFC West, as no other team owns a .500 record. The Dallas Cowboys won 33-19 at Washington last Sunday and the win gets them to 4-3, although the Cowboys are in the same division (NFC East) as the Eagles, who own the NFL's best record at 7-1. The even bigger news may be that just when Dallas appeared to be gaining momentum, the drawn-out Ezekiel Elliott suspension saga seems to have ended with the Elliott expected to begin his six-game suspension for violation of the NFL's personal-conduct policy with this Week 9 contest. Kansas City: QB Alex Smith had an off game last Monday (14 of 31) but he still hasn't thrown an interception in 259 attempts in 2017. He comes into this game completing 69.1 percent for 2,181 yards with 16 TDs and a QB rating of 115.4 (best in the NFL). Rookie RB Hunt was held to 46 yards rushing (2.1 YPC) but he has an NFL-best 763 (5.2 YPC & 4 TDs) on the season, while adding 28 catches (2 TDs). TE Kelce had a big game on Monday, catching seven passes for 133 yards and a TD, giving him a team-high 44 catches and four TDs on the season. The offense is third in the NFL in scoring (29.5 PPG) and total yards (377.9 per), which has made up for a defense not playing nearly as well as past KC stop units. KC ranks 30th in allowing 392.2 YPG and 19th in allowing 22.5 PPG. Dallas; Ezekiel Elliott has 690 yards (4.2 YPC) and six TDs for a running game averaging 150.6 YPG (2nd-best). However, with Elliott out, Dallas will turn to Alfred Morris as the starter with Darren McFadden and Rod Smith serving as backups.Can those guys give Dak Prescott 'the cover' Elliott has? There has been no "sophomore jinx" for Prescott, who is completing 62.8 percent for 1,569 yards with 14 TDs and just four INTs (96.6 QB rating). He's also has 168 rushing yards (7.3 YPC & 3 TDs), while leading an offense that's averaged 28.3 PPG (5th). The defense is nothing special, allowing 23.0 PPG (20th). The pick: My bet says it will make a HUGE difference that Elliott is not around and while Dallas has won eight of its last 10 home games, those two losses have come in the Cowboys' last TWO home games, falling 35-30 to the Rams (Week 4) and 35-31 to the Packers (Week 5). The Chiefs had their nine-game road winning streak snapped when they lost 31-30 at Oakland (in Week 7), on the game's final play. KC enters 14-3 ATS over the team's last 17 road games which is good enough for me to make the Chiefs a 10* play. |
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11-05-17 | Bucs +7 v. Saints | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -104 | 91 h 10 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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11-05-17 | Ravens v. Titans -4.5 | Top | 20-23 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Baltimore Ravens have had an extra few days to enjoy the team's 40-0 win over the Dolphins in a Thursday night Week 8 game. QB Flacco did not play well and left with a concussion on a vicious hit by Miami's Kiko Alonso. However, Flacco returned to the team the next day vastly improved and is on the path to make the start, according to head coach John Harbaugh. The Tennessee Titans come into this contest off their bye week and will look to maintain their spot atop the AFC South standings with a win. The Titans are 4-3 (tied with the Jags), after an unimpressive 12-9 overtime victory at Cleveland in Week 7. Baltimore: Flacco has failed to throw for more than 235 yards in any game this season (Baltimore ranks 32nd with 152.9 YPG passing) plus the veteran has thrown just six TDs against eight INTs on the season, giving him a poor 72.3 QB rating. Flacco was held out of practice for most of the week but he's the team's No. 1 QB and Harbaugh said he would start if he was cleared by the medical department. RB Alex Collins ran for a career-high 113 yards vs. Miami and the Ravens rank seventh with 126.9 YPG on the ground. The Ravens' defense was terrific vs. the Dolphins, returning two interceptions for TDs in the most lopsided shutout in franchise history (Miami had just 196 yards of total offense and was 4 for 15 on 3rd downs). On the season, Baltimore is allowing 18.5 PPG (5th) on 317.2 YPG (10th). Tennessee: Speaking of defense, the Titans totally dominated the Browns back in Week 7, holding the Browns to 284 yards of total offense in the win. Offensively, Mariota was 21 of 34 for 203 yards but DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry combined to rush for only 72 yards on 31 carries. That effort was not typical, as Tennessee comes in averaging 124.6 YPG (8th). The Titans' defense is allowing 24.7 PPG (26th) on the season but over the last three games, Tennessee has held its opponents to 15.7 PPG. The pick: Currently, Mariota owns a huge edge over Flacco and he is expected to get a boost with the return of WR Corey Davis, who was the fifth pick in last year's draft. He had six catches in Week 1 but has missed most of the season with a significant hamstring injury. He returned to practice on Monday and looks ready to jump right into the team's No. 1 receiver role. Davis set an FBS record with 5,285 career receiving yards at Western Michigan. Another edge for the Titans is PK Ryan Succop, who has made 55 straight FGs inside 50-yards! The Titans have covered six of their last seven in Nashville. Make Tennessee an 8* play. |
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11-05-17 | Bucs v. Saints OVER 50 | Top | 10-30 | Loss | -110 | 91 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay Bucs saw their Week 1 game postponed by Hurricane Irma but they opened 2-1. However, they have then fallen in succession to the Patriots, Cardinals, Bills and Panthers, leaving them at 2-5. In stark contrast, the Saints lost their first two games of the 2017 season but have followed with five straight wins over the Panthers, Dolphins, Lions, Packers and Bears. The Saints entered 2017 off three consecutive 7-9 seasons but have now won five in a row for the first time since 2013. New Orleans is atop the NFC South but leads the Panthers by just a half-game and the Falcons by one game. It's early but a Tampa Bay loss here in New Orleans, all but ends any real division hopes for the Bucs in 2017. Tampa Bay: QB Jameis Winston is dealing with a shoulder injury but practiced on Wednesday, the first time he joined the mid-week practice since suffering the injury on Oct. 15. Winston completed 21-of-38 passes for 210 yards and two interceptions in the loss to the Panthers last week, marking the fourth time in the last five games that he failed to complete at least 60 percent of his passes. However, he is completing 61.8 percent on the season (10 TDs and six INTs) plus Tampa Bay ranks second in passing yards at 295.4 per game. The running game doesn't offer enough help though, averaging just 81.1 YPG (29th), one of the reasons the Bucs are averaging only 21.1 PPG (19th). Defensively, Tampa Bay is allowing 386.4 YPG (29th) and 24.0 PPG (24th). New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees is completing 70.6 percent of his passes, averaging 271.7 YPG through the air and has 11 TDs with just four INTs (101.7 QB rating). He leads an offense which ranks second in the league with 390.4 YPG and ranks 6th in scoring at 27.3 PPG. RB Mark Ingram became the undisputed starter again when New Orleans traded away Adrian Peterson last month and he's averaged 98 yards in the last three weeks but fumbled on two straight fourth-quarter drives against Chicago last week. "I sucked. I sucked," Ingram told reporters. "Two possessions we're about to ice the game. Let the ball go, hurt my team, hurt my coaches. That's the thing about a family, that's the thing about a team: They lift you up, they had my back, and we were able to get the W." A major improvement has been shown by the defense, which allowed 28.4 PPG in 2016 but has allowed 20.7 PPG in 2017 (12th). The pick: The Buccaneers were expected to be the darlings of the NFC South in the preseason, while the New Orleans Saints were expected to just play out the end of Drew Brees' career near the bottom of the division. However, the teams have reversed that narrative so far this season, and the first-place Saints will go for their sixth consecutive win when they host the last-place Buccaneers on Sunday, who come in on that four-game skid. However, Tampa hasn’t exactly been lying down during its losing streak. The Bucs lost by five to the Patriots, five to the Cardinals and three to the Bills before 'laying an egg' in last week's 17-3 loss to the Panthers. If Ingram continues to run the ball well (while holding on to it!), he makes Brees even more effective. A Tampa Bay rush D which has only seven sacks on the year, also makes Brees' job easier in this matchup. That said, the Bucs know they really need a win here and are unlikely to bottle up Brees and Co, so the way to win is to match New Orleans score for score. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | Arizona v. USC OVER 73.5 | Top | 35-49 | Win | 100 | 75 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona ended September at 2-2, losing a pair of home games to Houston and Utah by a single possession. Following a bye week, the Wildcats traveled to Colorado on Oct. 7, where QB Brandon Dawkins was flung into the sidelines on the game's opening drive. Dawkins was pulled and sophomore Khalil Tate entered the lineup. Four games, four wins and an unprecedented four straight Pac-12 Offensive Player of the Week honors later, Tate has not relinquished the job. He leads Arizona in rushing with 926 yards on just 69 carries and has eight rushing TDs while passing for 784 yards and six more TDs. USC head coach Clay Helton said about the move to Tate, "It changed the dynamic of their team." He should know. USC closed September last season at 1-3, before a QB change to Sam Darnold ignited a nine-game winning streak that closed the campaign. The two schools meet in the LA Coliseum with the pac-12 South division lead on the line, as USC is 5-1 and Arizona, 4-1. Arizona: Tate is a "force of nature," leading Arizona's rushing attack which is averaging 339.2 YPG (5th). The Wildcats are averaging 45.0 PPG (3rd) on the season, including 48.8 PPG in the school's current four-game winning streak. Defensively, Arizona is allowing opponents to average 30.2 PPG (88th) on 453.0 YPG (112th). which includes 300.6 YPG through the air (128th). Helping out the poor defensive numbers is the fact that Arizona has forced 19 turnovers on the season! USC: The Trojans have been a minor disappointment and QB Sam Darnold has been a major one. He was Heisman-favorite and there was talk that he could be the next overall No. 1 pick in the 2018 NFL Draft. However, after throwing 31 TDs with just nine iNTs in 2016, he already has 10 INTs this season with 20 TD passes. USC has escaped against Texas in two OTs and against Utah by one-point, plus has lost at Washington State and got creamed at Notre Dame. USC averages 33.7 PPG but allows 25.8 and its 2-7 ATS record speaks volumes regarding the team's status as an underachiever in 2017. The pick: The depth-shy Trojan D has struggled with dual-threat QBs and right now, is there a better one than Arizona's Tate. However, there's little reason to trust Arizona's D, especially its pass D, which figures to easy pickins' for Darnold. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | LSU +21 v. Alabama | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 72 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Alabama opened as the preseason No. 1 team in the nation and has held that spot ever since, opening 8-0, including 5-0 in the SEC. However, The Crimson Tide found themselves at No. 2 in the first CFP rankings, which came out Tuesday night. It's no big deal, as it's very likely that Alabama and the CFP's No. 1 team, Georgia, will meet in the SEC championship game on Dec. 2nd. As the saying goes, "there is a long way to go before we sleep." For Alabama, the task at hand is its home game with LSU this Saturday. A month ago, this Nov. 4th game looked like an easy win for the Crimson Tide. The Tigers opened 2-0 but then got blown out 37-7 at Mississippi St and two weeks later, suffered a baffling home setback to Troy, 24-21 (as a three-TD favorite!). However, the Tigers have ripped off three straight wins since that debacle and at 6-2 overall, including 3-1 in the SEC, still have a chance to claim the SEC West title. LSU: QB Danny Etling doesn't produce big passing numbers, as LSU averages just 201.5 YPG through the air, which ranks 84th. However, he's careful with the football, throwing just one interception in 155 attempts, while throwing for nine TDs. RB Derrius Guice opened with back-to-back 100-yard games but over the next five weeks (he missed the Troy game), never ran for more than 76 yards. However, he racked up a whopping 276 rushing yards and a TD on 22 carries in LSU's recent 40-24 win over Ole Miss. The Tigers had three sacks and three INTs, giving up 347 yards of total offense and held Ole Miss to 3 for 12 on 3rd down, while holding the Rebels to just over 22 minutes of possession in the win. LSU will always play D and this year's no different. The Tigers are allowing 20.0 PPG (27th) on 319.2 YPG (21st). Alabama: The Tide romped past Tennessee 45-7 on Oct. 21 and took the final Saturday of October off. Speaking of a team playing defense, Alabama leads the nation in scoring defense (9.8 PPG), is second in total defense (237.8 YPG) and firstin rrushing defense (68.1 YPG) while ranking 10th in passing defense (169.6 YPG). Offensively, QB Jalen Hurts (like Etling), has thrown just one interception (151 pass attempts) with nine TD passes. He is also a very dangerous runner, with 572 YR (6.8 YPC & 6 TDs). He joins RBs Harris (697 YR / 8.6 YPC / 10 TDs) and Scarbrough (327 YR / 4.7 YPC / 6 TDs) to give Alabama the seventh-best running game in the nation at 298.8 YPG. Alabama's 43.0 PPG scoring average is fifth-best. The pick: Alabama has won the last six meetings, including a 10-0 victory last season. However, that makes it seven of the last 10 meetings between these two rivals having been decided by 10 points or less! Too many points here to give LSU. Make them a 10* play. |
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11-04-17 | Kings v. Pistons OVER 196.5 | Top | 99-108 | Win | 100 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Detroit Pistons followed up an impressive road trip, which included surprising victories at the Clippers and Warriors, with a 105-96 win over the Bucks last night at Little Caesars Arena. It was the opener of the team's five-game homestand,as Detroit improved to 6-3, including 7-2 ATS. The Sacramento Kings visit Detroit Saturday night, coming in on a six-game slide SU & ATS and an overall record of 1-7. The Kings lone win of the season was back on Oct 20, 93-88 in Dallas over a Mavericks team which is an NBA-worst 1-9 on the season! Sacramento: Rookie De’Aaron Fox (Kentucky) and 2nd-year player Buddy Hield (the key piece in the trade of Boogie Cousins) were the duo the Kings had hoped to build around. That duo may be the team's top-two scorers but Fox is averaging just 12.5 PPG on 40.4 percent from the floor, while Hield averages only 11.1 PPG on 38.7% shooting, including a woeful 25.7% on threes. Two key veteran additions, PF Zach Randolph (10.8 & 6.3) and PG George Hill (9.2 & 2.7 APG), have surely not over-achieved! Sacramento ranks 29th in scoring (93.1 PPG) and made free throws (12.4 per game) plus is tied for last in made three-pointers (seven per game). Detroit: SF Harris (19.7) is the team's leading scorer, followed by starting guards Jackson (15.6-4.1-6.2) and Bradley (15.4), who was acquired from Boston (Bradley's an excellent defender and is making 41% on threes). Center Andre Drummond (13.8 & 14.2) is a force inside and last night, made a career-high 14 free throws in 16 attempts en route to a 24-point, 15-rebound performance against Milwaukee. Drummond was 38.6 percent shooter at the foul line last season but his "new stroke" has paid big dividends early, as he hitting 78% of his FTs. The pick: Sacramento won both meetings last season when each team was going nowhere. Yes, it's early, but only the 7-2 Celtics have a better record in the East than Detroit right now. The Kings haven't reached 90 points in their last three games, including the first two legs of this three-game road swing. losing 101-83 on Tuesday at Indiana and 113-86 at Boston on Wednesday. However, their legs should be much fresher after two off-days. The Pistons have won six of the last seven over the Kings here in Detroit but I'm not quite comfortable laying almost double digits with the Pistons, just yet (if ever!). However, this low total says go OVER and make it a 10* play. |
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11-04-17 | Avalanche v. Flyers -160 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -160 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Avalanche finished last in just about very category last season, including the most important one, points. Colorado's 48 points were 21 fewer than the NHL's second-worst team. However, the 7-5-0 Avalanche have 14 points in the early going of the current season, which puts them in the conversation for a possible playoff berth. The Avalanche play the opener of what will be just a two-game road trip tonight, against the Philadelphia Flyers. The Flyers won 2-0 at St. Louis on Thursday, giving them a 7-6-1 (15 points) start to the season. The Flyers had 88 points last season, 40 more than the Avalanche, but also missed the postseason.Colorado: Goalie Semyon Varlamov allowed seven goal on just 21 shots in a 7-0 loss in Las Vegas back on Oct. 20 but after not playing in Colorado's win the next night over Chicago, set an Avalanche record for regular-season saves with a career-high 57 in his team's 5-3 win over Carolina on Thursday. "I feel not bad, actually," the 29-year-old told reporters. "Sometimes you face 30 shots and you're exhausted after the game. You never know how your body is reacting." Nathan MacKinnon was the top overall pick of the 2013 draft and looks to be finding a groove. He has five points (two goals, three assists) in his past two games, after mustering just one point (a goal) in his previous six. The Avalanche have been led offensively by Mikko Rantanen (four goals, 11 points), Nathan MacKinnon (three goals, 10 points) and Tyson Barrie (two goals, 10 points). They currently own the third spot in the Central Division. Philadelphia; Captain Claude Giroux scored and set up a goal in the team's 2-0 win over St. Louis on Thursday. He has collected 13 points (six goals, seven assists) in his past 10 games, while fellow forward Sean Couturier boasts 14 (eight goals, six assists) of his team-leading 17 points in that same stretch. Michal Neuvirth turned aside all 33 shots he faced versus the Blues as he, like Varlamov, rebounded from an abysmal performance (five goals) in his previous outing. He has yielded two goals or fewer in four of his five starts this season. Neuvirth has served as someone else's backup fo r most of his 10-year NHL career but he is expected to make his second consecutive start on Saturday night when the Colorado Avalanche visit the Wells Fargo Center. Neuvirth is just 2-3-0 but owns a 1.83 GAA & .941 SP. He's outplayed Brian Elliott (5-3-1, 3.11, .892) in the first month of the season and it's possible he could convince head coach Dave Hakstol that he deserves more time between the pipes. The pick: It's hard to imagine Varlamov matching his last outing (see above) and while Colorado is a surprising (shocking?) 5-1-0 at home, the Avalanche are 2-4-0 on the road, getting outscored 3.33-to-1.83 GPG. Make Philly an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | Stanford +2.5 v. Washington State | Top | 21-24 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 21 Stanford (CFP) will travel to Martin Stadium in Pullman, Wa. on Saturday afternoon to to take on No. 25 Washington State. The Cardinal escaped when they edged Oregon State 15-14, playing without star RB Bryce Love a week ago Thursday. Stanford improved to 6-2 (5-1 Pac-12) on the season and now face the Cougars, who dropped to 7-2 (4-2 in Pac-12) on the season after falling at the Arizona Wildcats 58-37, this past Saturday. Stanford owns a 40-26-1 series lead but Washington State won last year at Stanford, 42-16 as a seven-point underdog. Stanford: Without Love, QB Keller Chryst completed 16 of 33 passes for 141 yards with 1 TD and 1 INT in the Oregon State 'escape.' The Cardinal were out-gained by the Beavers by a 264-222 margin but won the turnover battle by a 3-1 margin. Despite its 15-point output vs. Oregon State, Stanford comes in averaging 35.2 PPG (30th) on 427.0 YPG (49th). The key is Bryce Love, who has run for 1,387 yards on 10.3 YPC with 11 TDs. QB Chryst is pretty average, completing just 54.2 % with eight TDs and four INTs. In fact, many fans are calling for redshirt freshman K.J. Costello. Stanford's defense is solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (33rd) on 397.8 YPG (78th). Washington State: The Cougars opened 6-0 and wwere No. 8 in the AP poll when they lost 37-3 at Cal. WSU bounced back with a 28-0 home win over Colorado but then got blasted 58-37 at Arizona, unable to stop Wildcat QB Tate, who passed for 275 yards (two TDs) and ran for 146 yards (one TD). QB Luke Falk has 23 TD passes and 2,576 passing yards and continues to climb the NCAA all-time leader boards. However, Tyler Hilinski replaced Luke Falk late in the first half of the Arizona game and ignited what had been a sputtering offense. Head coach Mike Leach said he initially pulled Falk out of the game to allow the quarterback "to see the field because we weren't pushing the ball down the field. Then Hilinski was hot, so we stayed with Hilinski." The redshirt sophomore completed 45 of 61 passes for 509 yards and three touchdowns. He also ran for two scores but was intercepted four times, the last one returned 66 yards by Colin Schooler for a touchdown. The pick: WSU's defense opened the season playing well but allowing 37 points at Cal and 58 at Arizona raises big questions. Love is arguably the nation's best RB but missed last week's 15-14 win over Oregon State with an ankle injury and is expected to be a game-time decision. However, the Cardinal are 19-7-1 ATS in their last 27 games following a ATS loss. I noted earlier that WSU won last season's game but that ended an eight-game losing streak to Stanford, which included Stanford winning the last four meetings here in Pullman. Make Stanford an 8* play. |
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11-04-17 | Penn State -8 v. Michigan State | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -125 | 64 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Penn State Nittany Lions led Ohio State in Columbus 21-3 in the early second quarter and entered the 4th quarter with a 35-20 lead, However, J.T. Barrett's 4th-quarter onslaught (he completed his final 16 passes!) led the Buckeyes to a 39038 comeback win. The defeat left Penn State at 7-1 (4-1 in the Big Ten) and James Franklin's squad opened No. 7 in the initial CFP rankings released this week. It was not a pleasant Saturday last weekend for Michigan State either, as the Spartans also suffered a difficult defeat, falling 39-31 in three overtimes at Northwestern. MSU is 6-2 and like Penn State, 4-1 in the Big Ten East. Both schools are a game behind the first-place Buckeyes, who check in at 5-0. The loser here drops out of the Big Ten hunt. Penn State: The Nittany Lions were guilty of some conservative offensive play-calling late against Ohio State but many teams have won at the Horseshoe since Meyer arrived. Michigan State: The Spartans lost last Saturday, despite QB Brian Lewerke setting school records for passing yards (445) and completions (39) against Northwestern. His 57 passing attempts tied for the second-highest total in program history. A negative was that he was also was the leading rusher with just 30 yards, as team season leader LJ Scott (511 yards) was held to 16 and committed his fifth fumble, continuing a season-long issue for the Spartans. Lewerke is completing 61.4 percent of his passes for 1,807 yards with 14 TDs and four interceptions. The Spartans' ground game let them down last week but it is averaging 167.1 YPG on the season (63rd). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing 19.6 PPG (24th) on 283.4 YPG (8th). The pick: Both teams own strong defenses but Penn State is averaging more than two TDs per game more than MSU, 39.6-to-23.8). Penn St. owns a much-better balanced offense, as the Spartans have averaged just 2.5 YPC their last two games. That won't cut it vs. Penn State, which is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 Big Ten games and 16-3-2 ATS in its last 21 games, overall. The favorite is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings in this series, as well. Make that 7-0 and make Penn St. an 8* play. |
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11-03-17 | Predators v. Ducks OVER 5 | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks led the Pacific Division last year with 105 points, 11 more than Nashville's 94 points, which allowed the Predators to 'sneak in' as the No. 8 seed in the Western Conference. However, it was the Preds who 'took the West by storm,' in reaching the Stanley Cup Finals, taking down the Ducks 4-2 in the Western Conference Finals. The two teams meet tonight in Anaheim, for the first time since last year's postseason, with the Predators checking in at 5-5-2 and the Ducks at 6-5-1. Nashville: The Predators are 3-1-1 in Nashville but just 2-4-1 away from home, so far. Nashville lost for the fourth time in five outings on Wednesday, dropping the opener of this four-game road trip 4-1 in San Jose. "We continue to shoot ourselves in the foot with the penalties," said head coach Peter Laviolette, who saw his team permit eight power-play opportunities to the Sharks and at least four to the opposition in all but one game this season. Nashville enters this contest having mustered just nine goals during its last five games. Pekka Rinne had been stellar in his previous six outings with just seven goals allowed on 191 shots, before surrendering all four goals at San Jose. Anaheim: Head coach Randy Carlyle lamented his team's performance with the man advantage as its 31st-ranked power play failed to pay dividends for the third time in four games during Wednesday's 3-1 setback to Toronto. "Our power play's got to deliver more," Carlyle told the Orange County Register. "We need more offense from our power play. When you got four opportunities, you've got to come home with something." Anaheim has been besieged with injuries since the start of the season. The Ducks' normally high-powered offense has struggled with absences of Ryan Getzlaf and power-play 'QB' Cam Fowler, who is expected to miss three to seven weeks with a knee injury. The Anaheim power play has taken the brunt of the injury woes, converting only 10.8 percent of its attempts, which ranked 31st in the NHL (that's dead-last!). The pick: Both teams are off to shaky starts but this Western Conference Finals rematch should provide a spark for both teams. Filip Forsberg leads Nashville in goals (eight) and points (13) this season. He shredded the Ducks with five goals and two assists as Nashville won the Western Conference Final last spring and I expect either Forsberg or another Predator to step up in this one. As for the Ducks, even with all the injuries, they almost "have to" start putting the puck in the net, soon. Why not here, in an excellent "revenge" spot. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-03-17 | Celtics v. Thunder -5.5 | Top | 101-94 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Boston Celtics lost their season-opener at Cleveland plus FA acquisition Gordon Hayward to a season-ending injury, as well. Boston then lost its second game to Milwaukee but the Celtics have since won and covered six in a row. Boston will play tonight in OKC (second-half of the ESPN doubleheader), going up against the "new-look" Thunder, who may be just 4-3 but own the NBA's top point-differential at plus-10.9 PPG (Celtics check in at No. 2, at plus-9.2 PPG). Boston: Brad Stevens has well-established himself as one of the league's elite head coaches but he's adding to his resume in the early going of the current season. Boston, without Hayward, has been led by PG Irving (21.8 & 5.5 APG) and a strong performance from its starting frontcourt. Second-year forward Brown (16.2 & 5.9) and rookie forward Tatum (13.8 & 6.6) surround center Horford (14.0 & 9.1). Returning to Irving for a minute, he has scored at least 20 points in each of the six straight wins and he is ranked second in the league in steals (2.63 per game). Supplying solid support in the backcourt for Irving are Smart and Rozier (both are averaging 9.8 PPG), who are also combing to add 9.3 RPG. That said, defense has been the key, as Boston has held each of its six straight 'victims' to 94 points or fewer and enter this game allowing a league-low 93.8 PPG. OKC: After averaging a triple-double for the season last year, Russell Westbrook won the MVP. However, OKC knew its team was nowhere near ready to compete with the Warriors. Two big trades brought Carmelo (NYK) and Paul George (Ind) to the Thunder. Interestingly, Westbrook (19.6-9.9-11.7) is just shy of averaging another triple-double but The pick:The Celtics are not the only team playing excellent defense, as OKC ranks third in the NBA, allowing 95.7 PPG, which is more than 10 points fewer than last season. Offensively, the scoring distribution has played out seamlessly, at least so far. I noted earlier that OKC is just 4-3 to open the season but a closer look reveals that all four of the team's wins (AND covers) have come against Eastern Conference opponents. Boston my be 'the best in the East" for now but I'll make OKC a 10* play. |
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11-03-17 | Memphis -11.5 v. Tulsa | Top | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 48 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The first CFP rankings were released this past Tuesday and while all attention was rightly paid to the top-four, schools from what's called "The Group of Five" also had a rooting interest. The school with the highest ranking from those non-Power Conferences will earn a bid to a "New Year's Six" bowl game. Unbeaten UCF currently holds the highest current ranking among the "Group of Five" schools at No. 18 but the Memphis is lurking, with its No. 24 ranking. However, the Tigers are 'playing from behind,' as their lone loss of 2017 was a 40-13 defeat at UCF back on Sep. 30th. Memphis is currently 7-1 (4-1 in the AAC West) as it visits Chapman Stadium in Tulsa on Friday night. The Golden Hurricane are only 2-7 overall, including 1-4 in the AAC West. Memphis: The Tigers have won four in a row since losing at UCF, averaging a whopping 49.5 PPG. QB Riley Ferguson is completing a modest 59.7 percent of his passes but Memphis ranks 10th at 329.0 YPG through the air. Ferguson has 23 TDs and just seven INTs, after throwing three or more TD passes in four of his last seven games. Memphis averages 42.5 PPG (8th) on 500.2 YPG (11th) but its defense allows 33.4 YPG (103rd) on 468.0 YPG (118th). Tulsa: The Golden Hurricane could use a win, after losing six of their last seven games. Tulsa depends on its running game, which averages 260.2 YPG (12th). It's led by Brewer (980 YR / 4.9 YPC / 8 TDs) and Brooks (687 YR / 5.8 YPC / 10 TDs). The Golden Hurricane can put points on the board (32.9 PPG ranks 38th on 446.2 YPG which ranks 35th) but defense has been a problem. Tulsa allows 37.7 PPG (120th) on a whopping 550.1 YPG (129th). The pick: Some say Memphis QB Ferguson is an NFL prospect, while Tulsa now starts redshirt freshman Luke Skipper, who will be making only his fourth start. There is talk that Memphis head coach Mike Norvell, has become a hot prospect as a potential candidate to fill the opening at Florida (Gators just parted ways with Jim McElwain over the weekend) but Norvell held a team meeting on Monday to discuss the rumors with his players. I'm not concerned with that "distraction," as Memphis is playing with a huge revenge motive, as Tulsa, as a six-point dog, won 59-30 at Memphis last season. However, this year's 2-7 Tulsa team bears little resemblance to last year's 10-3 squad. Lay the points and make Memphis an 8* play. |
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11-02-17 | Lakers +7 v. Blazers | Top | 110-113 | Win | 100 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4 LA Lakers will be up in Portland tonight to take on the 4-4 Blazers at Moda Center. The Lakers enter off a 20-point home win over the Pistons, who were coming off a shocking 115-107 win at Golden St. in their previous game. The Blazers lost 112-103 last night in Salt Lake City to the Jazz in OT but get right back on the court tonight, as they open a six-game homestand. Recent (and not so recent) history is on Portland's side, as the Blazers have won 12 straight meetings with the Lakers', whose last victory over Portland came back on March 3rd of 2014. The Blazers were 4-0 against the Lakers last season, winning by an average margin of 13.3 PPG. LA Lakers: Lonzo Ball was one of seven Lakers to score in double figures against the Pistons and chipped in six rebounds, three assists and two blocks without a turnover in a stat line that did not show his true value. "Take away the Phoenix game, this is the best game he's played, I thought," Los Angeles coach Luke Walton told reporters of Ball, who scored 29 points against the Suns earlier in the season. "The way that his pace was, the way he pushed the ball all the time. He was in the other team's paint. He just set the tone, and I thought the whole team fed off the way he was playing." LA is well-balanced, as eight players are averaging between 10.4 and 14.7 PPG. Clarkson (14.7) leads in scoring and Ball checks in at 10.4, along with 7.3 RPG and 7.0 APG. However, he'll have to shoot better than the 33.3 percent he's currently making on shots from the floor, including 28.6 percent on threes. Portland: The Blazers have lost two straight with Lillard (25.4-5.4-6.0) getting limited support during the team's two-game skid. He's scored 69 of the team's 186 points or more than 37 percent of its outcome. Only one other player reached double figures in Monday's 99-85 loss to Toronto (McCollum had 16) and just two, Jusuf Nurkic (19 points) and C.J. McCollum (16), scored in double digits in Wednesday's loss. The pick: Sure, the Blazers have won 12 straight in the series but offense has been a problem for the Blazers to open the 2017-18 season, with Portland shooting 42.4 percent from the floor, which ranks 28th in the NBA. Portland shot only 39.8 percent from the floor against the Jazz, making 9 of 34 shots from three-point range, that's 26.5 percent. Portland opened 3-1 (3-0-1 ATS) but limps in having lost three of four and on an 0-4 ATS run. Take the points and make the Lakers a 10* play. |
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11-02-17 | Bills v. Jets +3.5 | Top | 21-34 | Win | 100 | 25 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: It's “Thursday Night Football” on the NFL Network from MetLife Stadium when the 5-2 Buffalo Bills square off against AFC East rival, the 3-5 NY Jets. The Bills are a huge surprise in 2017, as if the playoffs were to begin this weekend, Buffalo would be the AFC's No. 1 wild card team. The Jets opened 0-2 but then ripped off three straight wins but while playing very competitively the last three weeks, have fallen 24-17 at home to the Pats, 31-28 at Miami and 25-20 at home to the Falcons. Buffalo: The Bills come in having won four of their last five, beating the Broncos, Falcons, Buccaneers and Raiders. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but it's running game wasn't doing much early and QB Tyrod Taylor is not good enough to carry this team. However, Buffalo's defense has been superb all season, holding opponents to just 16.4 PPG, third-best in the NFL. It's also noteworthy that the Buffalo owns a league-best plus-14 turnover margin. However, the key the last two weeks is the re-birth of Buffalo's running game, as the Bills have run for 173 and 165 yards in wins over Tampa Bay and Oakland since returning from a bye week. It's not a small deal, as after averaging 17.8 PPG through its first five games, Buffalo has scored 30 points in beating the Bucs and 34 points in beating the Raiders. NY Jets: Hard-fought losses are starting to pile up and the optimism of the team's three-game winning streak is starting to fade. Veteran Matt RB Forte openly question the play-calling of offensive coordinator John Morton as the team appeared to abandon the run in the rainy and sloppy conditions versus the Falcons but QB Josh McCown recorded his highest completion percentage of the season in that contest (26-of-33, 78.8 percent). What's more, the journeyman has nine TD passes over his last four games, three times posting QB ratings of 100-plus. In stark contrast to the Bills who have just three giveaways, the Jets have been rather generous with the ball this season, committing 14 turnovers (seven interceptions, seven fumbles), including Jeremy Kerley's costly muffed punt in Sunday's 25-20 s The pick: The Bills have not won the division since 1995 and would move into a tie with the idle New England Patriots for first place in the division with a win. Let's also note that the Bills gave notice that are serious about ending the team's 17-year playoff drought (NFL's longest current) by acquiring WR Kelvin Benjamin (32 receptions, 475 yards, two touchdowns) from Carolina for two draft choices prior to Tuesday's trading deadline. However, I don't trust Buffalo away from home. The Jets have blown 14-point leads to the Patriots and the Dolphins plus led the Falcons going into the fourth quarter before losing these last three weeks. "Fourth time" is the charm! The Jets are 5-0-1 ATS the last six weeks and 4-0 ATS at home in 2017. Make the Jets an 10* play. |
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11-02-17 | Golden Knights +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The expansion Vegas Golden Knights are 8-3-0, a record made more remarkable by the goaltender 'carousel' they've had to deal with. The Golden Knights will visit the TD Garden on Thursday night to play the 4-3-3 Boston Bruins, who have their own health issues of late. Both teams will be looking to snap two-game losing skids in tonight's contest. The Bruins wil be playing with revenge, as they lost in Las Vegas 3-1 back on Oct. 15. Vegas: The Golden Knights left Nevada with an 8-1-0 overall mark, after finishing a 6-1-0 homestand. However, they were 0-2 in New York, losing 6-3 to the Islanders in Brooklyn on Monday after leading 2-1 late in the second period and then squandered a two-goal third-period lead and fell 6-4 to the Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Tuesday. Maxime Lagace became the fourth goaltender to start for the Golden Knights this season after turning aside 32 shots in a 6-4 loss at the New York Rangers on Tuesday. "I'm taking the experience in and I'm having fun with all of that. I wish we won (Tuesday) but it's going to be refocus for next game," said the 24-year-old Lagace, who made his second appearance and first NHL start after Marc-Andre Fleury (concussion), Malcolm Subban (lower body) and Oscar Dansk (lower body) were placed on injured reserve. Boston: The Bruins are 1-0-3 over their last four games. Goalie Tuukka Rask has lost five straight, after falling in a shootout on Monday after his team rallied from three goals down to force overtime. The loss came two nights after Rask and the Bruins were stunned by a last-second overtime defeat that saw the Los Angeles Kings score off a faceoff in the Boston zone with nine-tenths of a second remaining. The Bruins have also been dealing with all kinds of injury and illness. It was announced on Wednesday that veteran David Backes is having surgery to remove part of his colon after his bout with diverticulitis. With David Krejci (back) still not on the ice for practice Wednesday, Jordan Szwarz was recalled from Providence of the American Hockey League. Zane McIntyre was recalled on an emergency basis because backup goalie Anton Khudobin is battling a lower-body injury. The pick: Boston may actually have more issues than the Vegas and Rask, after winning his first start of the season, has gone 0-3-2 since. He has a 2.93 goals-against average and .898 save percentage. I'll take the 1 1/2 goals and make Vegas an 8* play. |
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11-02-17 | Ball State +24 v. Eastern Michigan | Top | 14-56 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 14 m | Show |
The set: If it's November, then it's weekday football games in the MAC. This Thursday night game features the 2-6 Ball State Cardinals against the 2-7 Eastern Michigan Eagles. Both teams come in on losing streaks. The Cardinals lost 58-17 to the visiting Toledo Rockets on Homecoming (Oct. 26), the team's fifth consecutive loss. Eastern Michigan also played and lost on Oct. 26th, 30-27 in OT at Northern Illinois, the Eagles' sixth straight loss. Toledo and Northern Illinois are both 4-0 in the MAC West, while Ball State and Eastern Michigan are both 0-4. This is not exactly a marquee matchup. Ball State: The Cardinals opened with a close loss at Illinois and then won its next two. However, the team has lost five in a row since and comes in averaging only 19.1 PPG (119th) on 341.4 YPG (109th) on the season. Defensively, the Cardinals allow 37.6 PPG (118th) on 412.5 YPG (86th). Head coach HC Mike Neu has to be frustrated, as he's lost three QBs and will likely go with redshirt freshman Drew Plitt again. Eastern Michigan: The Eagles opened the 2017 season 2-0 but enter this contest on a six-game slide. However, the Eagles have been competitive in all six defeats, losing three in OT and the other three by margins of four, five and one. EMU is poor offensive team, averaging just 20.8 PPG (115th). The Eagles have no running game to speak of, averaging 94.1 YPG (127th). Defensively, the Eagles are solid, allowing 21.1 PPG (35th) on 357.9 YPG (37th).The pick: Both teams enter on losing streaks (see above) but Eastern Michigan has been the more competitive team during its skid. EMU won last year's game (48-41 at Ball State) but that was just the Eagles' second win over the last 12 meetings of this series. This huge pointspread makes little sense. Take the points and make Ball State a 10* play. |
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11-01-17 | Raptors +1.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 111-129 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
Toronto: DeMar DeRozan scored 25 points in the win at Portland, his fifth straight outing with at least 24 following an 11-point effort in the season opener. He's averaging 23.7 PPG on the season, while backcourt partner Kyle Lowry chips in 13.5-5.9-7.3, after he had a season-high 19 points to go along with 10 assists against the Blazers. Toronto is showing excellent depth early on, with 10 players averaging between 5.8 and 15.0 PPG behind DeRozan, led by PF Ibaka (15.0 & 5.0). Center Valanciunas was averaging 14.0 & 9.5 but has missed four straight games with an ankle injury. The Raptors are averaging 109.0 PPG (7th) but have shown an ability to play better defense in the early going as well, allowing 98.2 PPG (5th). Denver: The Nuggets rallied from a 22-point halftime deficit to take a brief third-quarter lead on Sunday at MSG but in the end fell 116-110 to the Knicks, as Kristaps Porzingis scored a career-high 38 points. Center Jokic leads with 17.3 & 11.1, backed by five others in double digits. That group includes guards Harris (14.4), Barton (13.9), Murray (12.3) and Mudiay (11.6) plus PF Millsap (14.1 & 7.9). The pick: Denver has played five of its first seven games on the road and now is home for awhile. Defense and turnovers have been a problem for the Nuggets, while the Raptors played tough at the Spurs and Warriors to open their six-game trip, before winning two in a row (have covered three straight). Toronto won two close games over Denver last season and this pointspread makes them a 10* play in this first meeting of this season. |
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11-01-17 | Penguins v. Oilers OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The two-time defending champs have long been known for their scoring prowess but the Penguins visit Edmonton Wednesday night having scored three goals or less over their last five games. Pittsburgh is 2-3-0 in that span (both wins came 2-1 in OT!), giving them a modest 7-5-1 record so far. One of those 2-1 (OT) wins came over the Oilers (Oct. 24th in Pittsburgh), so the disappointing Oilers, who have opened 3-6-1, will sure be looking for some revenge. Edmonton is in the middle of a five-game homestand on which it has split the first two contests. Pittsburgh: This marks the third game of Pittsburgh's current five-game road trip, with Pittsburgh losing the first two, 2-1 and 7-1. Evgeni Malkin has scored the etam's only two goals in that span and is tied with captain Sidney Crosby and Conor Sheary for the team lead in goals (five) and, along even Phil Kessel, tops on the club in points (13). Pittsburgh juggled its lines in practice Tuesday and also has shuffled its goaltending corps. The Pens called up Tristan Jarry from their AHL affiliate to back up starter Matt Murray and sent goalie Casey DeSmith the other way. Edmonton: The Oilers edged Dallas 5-4 on Thursday before dropping a 5-2 decision to Washington two days later for their fourth setback in six home games.Connor McDavid leads the team with five goals but has yet to score on the power play, where Edmonton is only 4-for-33 on the season (Oilers' 12.1% ranks 30th in the NHL!). The Oilers' special teams could surely use plenty of improvement, as the team's penalty-kill unit (70.3%), also ranks dead-last at 30th! Despite boasting last season's NHL scoring leader (Connor McDavid), and Leon Draisaitl, who finished eighth in the points race, the Oilers total of 22 goals scored is the lowest in the NHL The pick: These teams own too much fire power for this lack of scoring to continue. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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11-01-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: It seems only fitting that the 2017 World Series will be decided in a winner-take-all Game 7. The LA bats 'woke up' just in time last night, as Chris Taylor hit a tying double off Justin Verlander during a two-run rally in the sixth inning with Corey Seager following with a go-ahead sacrifice fly. Joc Pederson then hit a 7th-inning HR against Joe Musgrove, pounding his chest and dancing around the bases. LA's 3-1 victory means this his dramatic Fall Classic is headed to an "ultimate Game 7!" Either the Los Angeles Dodgers will end a 29-year title drought or the Houston Astros will celebrate their first World Series championship come late Wednesday night. The pitching matchup: Lance McCullers will get the Game 7 nod for Houston and Yu Darvish for Los Angeles. It will be a rematch of Game 3, when McCullers gave up three runs on four hits with four walks over 5 1/3 innings, while Darvish allowed four runs on six hits while lasting just 1 2/3 innings. McCullers' two outings in the ALCS against the Yanks were also noteworthy. He got a no-decision in Game 4 but pitched six shut out innings, before allowing a lead-off HR in the seventh in Aaron Judge. He was taken out and the Yankees rallied against Houston's struggling bullpen. However, McCullers was called on in Game 7 of the ALCS and threw four scoreless innings (allowed one hit and had six Ks), to earn a save and help Houston reach the World Series. Then came his Game 3 performance (see above). Darvish's Game 3 performance marked the shortest start of his big league career. However, he entered that game on a roll. He had allowed just one ER over his final three regular season starts (19 1/3 innings), giving him an 0.47 ERA plus owned a 21-1 KW ratio in that stretch. He then won his first two postseason starts, allowing two ERs over 11.1 innings (1.59 ERA) with a 14-1 KW ratio. Doing the math, Darvish entered Game 3 of the World Series on a 4-1 run, having allowed three ERs over 30 2/3 innings (0.88 ERA) with a 35-2 KW ratio. Just where did his Game 3 effort come from? The pick: I've really liked what McCullers has shown in his last three postseason appearances (2.35 ERA) and I'm also expecting Darvish to rise to the occasion in what is the "biggest start" of his career. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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11-01-17 | Central Michigan v. Western Michigan OVER 47 | Top | 35-28 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: It's MACtion on Wednesday night from Waldo Stadium in Kalamazoo, Mi. when the 5-3 Western Michigan Broncos host the 4-4 Central Michigan Chippewas. The Chippewas kept their bowl hopes alive with a 56-9 rout at Ball State Cardinals on Oct. 21, reaching .500 at 4-4 on the season (2-2 in the MAC West). The Broncos also won on Oct. 21, edging the Eastern Michigan Eagles 20-17 in OT on the road. That gives WMU a 3-1 conference mark but the Broncos are still looking up at a pair of 4-0 teams in the West, Toledo and Northern Illinois. Central Michigan: Head coach John Bonamego has taken the Chippewas to consecutive bowl games in his first two seasons (lost them both) and Central Michigan is still technically still alive for the MAC title but that's a long-shot. However, the team needs just two wins in its final four games to become bowl-eligible here in 2017. QB Shane Morris completed 16 of 21 for 199 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in the rout of Ball State but he's completing a modest 56.7 percent on the season with 16 TDs and 11 INTs. The offense is mediocre at best, averaging 25.8 PPG (83rd). Defensively, CMU is allowing 27.0 PPG (73rd). Western Michigan: Tim Lester is in his first season at WMU, with P.J. Fleck 'rowing his boat' in Minnesota, these days. Western Michigan had won four straight games, after its 71-68 seven-overtime win over Buffalo on Oct. 7. However, that win may have taken something out of the Broncos, who fell to Akron, 14-13 at home in their next game. Then came the 20-17 OT win at EMU, a game in which they lost starting QB Jon Wassink to a broken collarbone. Wassink was injured with 10 minutes left in the fourth quarter and true freshman Reece Goddard entered the game. Ultimately, Goddard led the Broncos to the game-winning FG drive in overtime The pick: QB Morris is off his best game of the season (see above) plus the CMU running game had its best effort of the season vs. the Cardinals, running for a season-high 256 yards. The Chippewas are an impressive 15-5 ATS theri last 20 MAC road games, which goes well with the fact that the road team is on a 5-0 run in this series. The WMU defense is no bargain (allows 27.69 PPG to rank 79th) but I'm not sold on CMU slowing the WMU offense either, even without Wassink behind center. The Broncos have won the last three in this series, averaging 40.7 PPG. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-31-17 | Astros v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -125 | 35 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2017 World Series has already delivered two classic contests in Game 2 and 5, both of which were won by the Astros in extra-innings. If the Astros' 7-6 Game 2 victory last week was an instant classic, Houston's 13-12 win (10 innings) in Game 5 on Sunday might have actually topped it. This series is just five games old but the 22 combined HRs hit by the two teams has set a record for the most in World Series history and it's possible, there are still two games left to be played. The Astros sure hope there is just on game left, while the Dodgers are looking to send this series to a winner-take-all, Game 7 (hard to argue against that being a fitting conclusion). The storied Dodgers are in their first World Series since 1988 but for the Astros, there's no way to put into words what a World Series title would mean to a franchise that has made just one previous World Series appearance, which came back in 2005 when Houston was wept by the Chicago White Sox. Note that Houston's Game 2 win represented the franchise's first-ever World Series win! The pitching matchup: Justin Verlander is 9-0 with a 1.53 ERA in 10 total appearances (nine starts) since joining the Astros and A.J. Hinch will send the 34-year-old to the mound with hopes of avoiding a Game 7. Rich Hill takes the mound for LA, coming off a 12-8 (3.32 ERA) season, with the Dodgers going 15-10 in his 25 regular season starts. He's yet to earn a decision in three postseason starts but owns a 2.77 ERA and LA has won two of the three games he's started. Verlander only gave up only two hits in his Game 2 outing at Dodger Stadium but both were HRs, to Joc Pederson and Corey Seager. He left trailing 3-1 but the Astros would come back to win 7-6 in 11 innings. Hill was the recipient of a quick hook from manager Dave Roberts despite giving up one run and three hits and striking out seven in four innings his Game 2 start, opposite Verlander, However, Roberts hinted that Hill will have a 'longer leash' in Game 6 and the 37-year-old proclaims himself ready for the task. "It's something that all of us have been preparing our entire careers for," Hill told reporters. "Going out there in Game 6 and having the ability to be in that position, and go out there and leave everything on the field, is just an amazing thought." The pick: Roberts says that Hill will get a longer leash but Hill has not pitched more than five innings in any of his postseason starts in 2017. How will he fare past that point? We know that the LA bullpen is 'gassed.' so we may see Houston's bats continue the onslaught we saw in Game 5. As for Verlander, for all his accomplishments (and they are many), he's still looking for his first World Series win and note that he entered this year's Series 0-3 with a 7.20 ERA in three previous World Series starts. Clearly, with the state of Houston;'s bullpen, Hinch needs Verlander to go seven-plus innings. Each team pounded out 14 hits in Game 5 and I'm siding with the Over here in Game 6 and making it a 10* play. |
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10-31-17 | Thunder v. Bucks OVER 212 | Top | 110-91 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-3 Oklahoma City Thunder will visit the Bradley Center to take on the 4-2 Milwaukee Bucks on Tuesday night. Russell Westbrook is coming off a record-setting season in which he was named MVP but the Bucks will showcase the NBA's most prolific player in this season to-date, Giannis Antetokounmpo. The 22-year-old "Greek Freak" leads the NBA with a 34.7 PPG scoring average while shooting 63.1 percent from the floor. He has four double-doubles, while also leading the Bucks in rebounding (10.7), assists (5.5) and steals (2.0). Oklahoma City: Westbrook became the first player in NBA history to post a triple-double against 29 different opponents when he had 12 points, 13 rebounds and 13 assists in the Thunder's 101-69 rout of the Chicago Bulls on Saturday. "It's really his mentality that I have great respect for and an admiration that I love," Oklahoma City coach Billy Donovan told reporters. "He's an old-school, just bring it - he just has certain values in the way the game is supposed to be played from a competitive standpoint." OKC has added Paul George (19.5 & 4.7) and Carmelo Anthony (23.8 & 3.8) but the team's 3-3 start is underwhelming. Of note though, is a defense which ranks 4th in points allowed (96.5 per) and third in opponents' FG percentage (41.9%). Milwaukee: Greg Monroe will be sidelined at least two more weeks due to a left calf strain that he aggravated in Thursday's contest against the Boston Celtics. Monroe initially injured the calf in training camp and he was unavailable against the Hawks on Sunday, leading to Monday's decision to shut him down to give the injury a chance to heal. John Henson is in line for a primary role while Monroe is sidelined and he recorded season highs of 12 points and nine rebounds against Atlanta.to the mix. Middleton (17.2) is healthy right from the start this season and is a solid scorer plus lat year's R-O-Y, Malcolm Brogdon, is averaging 15/8 & 4.0 APG. Milwaukee is just middle-of-the-pack in scoring at 103.7 PPG (14th) but owns the NBA's second-best FG percentage at 49.3%. The pick: The Westbrook/Antetokounmpo.matchup takes center stage but 'Melo and George plus Middleton and Brogdon add plenty of 'electricity' to tonight's proceedings. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-31-17 | Jets v. Wild -135 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-3-2 Winnipeg Jets visit Central Division-rival Minnesota on Tuesday at Xcel Energy Center. The Wild are 4-3-2, after edging the Penguins 2-1 on Saturday for their second straight win on the heels of losses in five of their previous seven. The defending champion Penguins visited Winnipeg on Sunday and got routed 7-1 by the Jets, who scored a franchise-best five-goals in the opening period against Pittsburgh. Winnipeg: The Jets have outscored opponents 16-8 in the first period so far this season, putting opponents on the defensive right from the start. Saturday's offensive surge was certainly welcomed by goalie Connor Hellebuyck, who improved to 5-0-1 with a 2.05 goals-against average & 937 save percentage. He will be in goal tonight vs. the Wild, who he is 3-1-0 against in his career. Minnesota: Devan Dubnyk is starting to put his early-season troubles behind him, yielding just one goal in two of his last three outings, as Minnesota improved to 2-1-0 on its season-high six-game homestand. However, he allowed all four goals in his first encounter with Winnipeg this season (Oct. 20th), dropping to 7-8-1 in his career versus the franchise. |
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10-31-17 | Bowling Green v. Kent State OVER 50 | Top | 44-16 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the final day of October and two struggling MAC teams take the field on Halloween night, with the 1-7 Bowling Green Falcons visiting the 2-6 Kent State Golden Flashes. Both schools are 1-3 in MAC play (East Division), with each owning wins over Miami-Ohio (ironically, Miami is 2-2 in MAC play). Bowling Green comes in 1-7 SU and ATS and Kent State at 2-6 SU and 3-5 ATS. Bowling Green has won the last four meetings with Kent and owns a commanding 59-19-6 advantage in the all-time series. Bowling Green: Mike Jinks is in just his second season at Bowling Green and is not only a woeful 5-15 SU but also 5-15 ATS, as well. Bowling Green averages just 20.5 PPG on offense, while its defese allows 37.8 PPG (120th) on 526.5 YPG (127th). James Morgan started the last seven games of the 2016 season at QB for Bowling Green and was instrumental in the Falcons’ three-game winning streak to end the season. It was expected hat he would build on that performance but the exact opposite has been the case. He's completed just 45.3 percent of his passes with nearly as many interceptions (seven) as TD passes (nine). Morgan was benched in favor of freshman Jarrett Doege, who relieved Morgan in a 49-7 loss at Northwestern and then made his first start the following week at Middle Tennessee. He showed good accuracy (63.5 percent completion rate) and had some success running the offense but then suffered a back injury in his second start against Akron. Morgan took over and led the Falcons to a 37-29 victory on the road against Miami (Ohio) in the next game, but gave way to another freshman, Grant Loy, in last week’s 48-17 blowout home loss to Northern Illinois. What's the ext move? Kent State: The Golden Flashes lost 48-3 on Oct. 21 at Ohio U, getting out-gained 474-166 in yards. It was nothing new for a team which ranks 130th (dead-last!) among all FBS teams by averaging 10.0 PPG. Kent State averages only 249.6 YPG, which ranks 129th. The defense checks in allowing 32.9 PPG (102nd) on 437.8 YPG (100th). Take away the 38 points the Golden Flashes scored in their win over Howard (FCS) and they have scored a total of 42 points against seven FBS teams, which is 6.0 PPG!. The pick: OK, so the play is under, right? As the saying goes, "not so fast!" These two schools have plenty of history together (see above) and note that Bowling Green's 59 wins are the most for the Falcons over any other opponent in program history. Bowling Green also has won four in a row over Kent State, averaging 40.3 PPG. The Falcons will nedd some help from the Golden Flashes but not all that much. Bowling Green’s defensive issues should give the Golden Flashes a chance to at least move the ball and go above their scoring average. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-30-17 | Stars -115 v. Canucks | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 21 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Stars head coach Ken Hitchcock told the Dallas Morning News, "The record (6-5-0) is not near indicative of how we have played, but it is what it is,” We’ve had to endure a lot of heartbreak on losses where we have played well. There are a lot of things we like, but there are nuances we have to change.” the 6-5-0 Stars hope to translate their solid play into more victories as they continue a five-game road trip Monday night against the surprising Vancouver Canucks. Vancouver has won four straight to up its record to 6-3-1 (Canucks were just 30-43-9 last season with 69 points, more than only the Avalanche). Dallas: The Stars moved one game over .500 with a 2-1 victory at Calgary on Friday night but with the league's best power play percentage (32.4%) and its second-best penalty kill percentage (92.1%), Hitchcock's is right about the fact his team's record should be better. “The power play is good, but we’ve got to start scoring 5-on-5,” forward Alexander Radulov, who has four points in the last two games, told reporters. “That’s a really big thing right now for our team.” Captain Jamie Benn was kept off the scoresheet against Calgary, but owns all of his team-leading seven goals in the last eight contests and tops the Stars with 13 points. Vancouver: Anders Nilsson has been between the pipes for the last two games, improving to 3-1-0 with a .943 save percentage and 1.89 goals-against average but Jacob Markstrom (3-2-1, 2.48 GAA & .908 SP) won the first two in the streak. Word is Vancouver will go back to Markstrom in this game. The Canucks have showed faith in the abilities of new coach Travis Green, who has been getting kudos while having more roster depth than predecessor Willie Desjardins. Green was promoted from Vancouver's minor-league affiliate in Utica, N.Y. and is earning praise for his open communication style even while limiting the ice time of veterans as the Canucks allow their youth movement to build momentum, albeit slowly. The pick: The early word is that Ben Bishop will be in goal for Dallas, although he owns just an .899 save percentage in seven career games against the Canucks. Then again, Kari Lehtonen stood out in Calgary while making only his second start of the season, and based on his strong play, could get the start against the Canucks. Either way, I'll take the Stars, whose record is not quite as good as the team has played, against the overachieving Canucks. Make Dallas a 10* play. |
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10-30-17 | Mavs v. Jazz OVER 192 | Top | 89-104 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Mavs opened 0-4 this season and will come to Salt Lake City Monday night at 1-6 overall, with their lone win coming at home over Memphis on Oct. 25th (103-94). The Jazz are 3-3 on the season but 3-0 SU and ATS at home. The Jazz have yet to win on the road but are luckily near the beginning of a stretch with eight of nine at home. This marks the second home game in that stretch, as Utah hopes to move to 4-0 at home on the season with a win over the struggling Mavs. Dallas: The Mavericks have dropped six of their first seven games with head coach Rick Carlisle telling reporters after a 112-110 home loss to the Philadelphia 76ers on Saturday, “We’ve just got to do better really over the course of 48 minutes.That’s really the biggest thing.' Harrison Barnes leads the team in scoring a 18.1 PPG and scored a team-high 25 points on Saturday but was a minus-18 on the night and had some harsh words for himself and his fellow starters. "It’s our starting unit," Barnes told reporters. "At the beginning of the first quarter and at the beginning of the third quarter we’re getting off to slow starts, and it puts the whole team in a deficit. I mean, look at the way the second unit was playing with just the plus-minus. All of those guys were contributing and getting us back in the game. But as starters, we can’t put ourselves in that deficit." Utah: The Jazz lost back-to-back games at Phoenix and the Los Angeles Clippers last week but returned home and clamped down on defense in a 96-81 victory over the Los Angeles Lakers on Saturday. "This team is still trying to discover who it is," Jazz coach Quin Snyder told reporters. "...I've said all along, it's a work in progress. As long as our defense stays strong, we'll have an opportunity to be competitive while we're trying to get better." With Hayward lost to Boston via free agency, a possible new go-to scorer could be rookie guard Donovan Mitchell. He had 22 points on 9-of-16 shooting in Saturday's win while knocking down 3-of-6 from beyond the arc. However, Rodney Hood is the team's top overall scorer with 15.3 PPG with the other four Jazz starters all averaging at least 11 points per contest. Derrick Favors recorded his first double-double of the season with 14 points and 10 rebounds on Saturday and is 14-of-20 from the floor in the last two contests. The pick: The Mavs are scoring just 99.6 PPG (26th) on 41.9 percent shooting (29th), so will have their work cut out against a Utah team allowing only 94.5 PPG (2nd-best in the NBA). Utah games feature low over/under numbers but three of the four meetings last year between the two teams went over. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-30-17 | Broncos +7.5 v. Chiefs | Top | 19-29 | Loss | -115 | 123 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: NFL Week 8 concludes with a MNF matchup featuring an AFC West showdown between the 3-3 Denver Broncos and the 5-2 KC Chiefs. Both teams limp in off back-to-back losses, with the Broncos coming off having been shut out last Sunday 21-0 by the Los Angeles Chargers. The Chiefs opened the 2017 season at 5-0 but then lost 19-13 at home to the Steelers, before losing a Thursday night Week 7 game at Oakland 31-30, when the Raiders scored on the game's final play. Denver: Trevor Siemian has taken a lot of the 'heat' for the Broncos' 21-0 loss to the Chargers but he sure hasn't been helped by the fact that C.J. Anderson, after rushing for at least 81 yards in three of the team's first four games, has totaled just 61 yards on the ground over the team's last two games (both losses). Anderson had just 44 yards vs. the Chargers, with Siemian going 25 of 35 passing with an interception (only 207 yards). The Broncos are averaging only 18.0 PPG (24th) but the team's defense is holding opponents to an NFL-low 258.5 YPG! That said, Denver's allowing 19.7 PPG, which is only 11th-best. Kansas City: The Chiefs have dropped two straight but don't look for their QB to be at fault. Alex Smith has continued to carve out a career-best season," completing 72.4 percent with 15 TD passes and zero INTs (in 228 pass attempts) for a QB rating of 120.5. TE Kelce (37 catches and & TDs) and WR Hill (36 catches & 5 TDs) have been terrific, as has rookie RB Hunt. He's run for 717 yards (5.8 YPC & 4 TDs) plus caught 25 passes for three TDs. What 'killed' KC in the last-second loss at Oakland was an 'ugly' outing from the Chiefs’ defense, which allowed 505 yards and 32 FDs. KC's defense has slacked off in 2017 (while the offense has surged), allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 396.3 YPG, which ranks 30th out of 32 teams (unusual for an Andy Reid-coached team). The pick: No doubt that Denver catches KC in a bad mood after back-to-back losses plus Chiefs have had three extra days to stew about taht bitter Thursday loss at Oakland.It's also true taht Trevor Siemian's confidence could be somewhat shaken and Denver's only other option at QB is Brock Osweiler (OUCH!). However, Denver is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings between these two teams in Kansas City.and this is a lot points for this bitter rivalry, especially considering Denver is allowing about 140 YPG less than KC on the season! Take those points and make Denver a 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Steelers v. Lions OVER 45 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -110 | 99 h 16 m | Show |
] The set-up: Sunday Night football travels to Ford Field as the 5-2 Pittsburgh Steelers visit the 3-3 Detroit Lions. It seems like a 'lifetime ago' that the Steelers lost 30-9 at home against the Jags, with Big Ben throwing five INTs, including two 'pick-sixes!' He famously told reporters after the game, "Maybe I don't have it anymore?" However, the Steelers won at KC in their next game (KC's first loss of the season) and followed with a 28-14 home win over the Bengals last Sunday. All of a sudden, the Steelers look as good as any team in the AFC (NFL?). The Lions were a controversial call against the Falcons away from a 4-0 start but with back-to-back losses prior to last week's bye, Detroit welcomes the Steelers to Detroit at just 3-3. Pittsburgh: RB LeVeon Bell had just 47 rushing yards in that loss to the Jags but he's carried the ball 32 and 35 times the last two weeks, gaining 313 yards. Big Ben has been good, not great, completing 63.2% with three TDs and just one INT in attempts. WR Brown has 12 catches for 210 yards with two TDs in the team's back-to-back wins (what a trio!); As always, Pittsburgh is one of the NFL's best defensive teams, allowing 16.6 PPG (3rd) on 258.7 YPG (2nd) Detroit: The Lions likely appreciated the bye week, especially QB Matthew Stafford. He took last week's bye to work his way past hamstring and ankle injuries. Detroit will need to come up big here, as the 5-2 Vikings are playing the 0-7 Browns in London. Stafford threw for 312 yards and three touchdowns in the Lions' last game (a 52-38 loss at New Orleans) but also had three picks (has 12 TDs and four INTs on the season). The pick: The good news for Detroit is that the Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a bye week but the Steelers are back to playing at an elite level. Big Ben is "far from done" and WR Antonio Brown is basically un-coverable. Play-action seems sure to work with Bell running for 134 yards or more in three of his last four games. Expect Pittsburgh to score, meaning Detroit's only chance to win is to match Pittsburgh, score for score. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-29-17 | Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 12-13 | Loss | -120 | 20 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: the two major storylines coming out of Game 4 of the 2017 World Series are the following. Dodgers first baseman Cody Bellinger had a record-breaking rookie season, (he's the likely NL rookie of the year), and finally came through with a pair of critical hits, after going hit-less with eight strikeouts in his first 13 World Series at-bats. He ended his skid with a seventh-inning double and scored the game-tying run on a single. He then drove home the go-ahead run in the ninth with another double sparking LA's five-run 9th innings en route to a 6-2 LA. Moving to the Houston side of this series, just how can A.J. Hinch trust closer Ken Giles the rest of the way? Giles entered to start the ninth last night with the scored tied at 1-1 and got into immediate trouble. He allowed a lead-off single to Corey Seager and a walk to Justin Turner. Bellinger then lined a fastball to left-center. Giles' line was three ERs allowed on two hits and a walk without recording an out. That follows him allowing two runs on two hits and a walk in 1 2/3 innings in Houston's Game 2 World Series win. Of course, all should remember his Game 4 'meltdown' against the Yankees, which almost cost the Astros in the ALCS. The pitching matchup: Clayton Kershaw (3-0 & 2.96 ERA) and Dallas Keuchel (2-2 & 3.00) return here in Game 5 for a rematch of Game 1. Kershaw's postseason woes have been well-documented and were very real. However, he began a turnaround in 2016 and has completed it here in 2017, at least so far. The Dodgers have won all four of his starts this postseason and going back to his last start of the 2015 postseason, Kershaw is 6-1 over nine starts, with the Dodgers winning eight of those nine games! Keuchel dropped his second straight postseason start on the road in his head-to-head matchup with Kershaw in Game 1, surrendering HRs to Chris Taylor and Justin Turner in the 3-1 setback. However, those HRs were the first two allowed in 24 postseason innings this season by Keuchel. The pick: Kershaw has finally brought his regular season brilliance to the postseason and note that Keuchel's back-to-back postseason losses have both come on the road. In two 2017 home postseason starts, he's allowed just one run and struck 17 over 12 2/3 innings, while going 2-0 (0.71 ERA). Expect a 'replay' of Game 1. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Penguins +100 v. Jets | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Winnipeg Jets dropped a 2-1 OT decision at Pittsburgh on Thursday and lost by the same score at Columbus one night later, also in OT. That gives the 4-3-2 Jets at least a point in six of their last seven games and tonight at home, will have a chance at some revenge, as the 7-4-1 Pittsburgh Penguins visit at Bell MTS Place. The two--time defending champs fell 2-1 at Minnesota last night and while they've opened 4-0-1 at home, they are only 3-4-0 on the road.
Pittsburgh: Evgeni Malkin and Phil Kessel both boast 12 points to lead the team, while captain Sidney Crosby is next with 11. Defenseman Kris Letang notched an assist against Minnesota to push his season total to seven points but the former All-Star is a minus-11 in the first 12 contests. Head coach Mike Sullivan told reporters he will make the decision on his starting goalie Sunday between backup Casey DeSmith and No. 1 Matt Murray (only four goals allowed last three games). However, No. 1 goaltender Matt Murray started Saturday night's game in St. Paul and suffered his first regulation loss of the year, so there's a good chance Sullivan may want to see what he has in DeSmith, while playing back-to-back nights on the road. Winnipeg: Speaking of the Jets' back-to-back OT losses thsi week, Winnipeg captain Blake Wheeler told reporters, "We had the right mindset. Thursday was a tough one. Friday was a tough one. We had ‘em where we wanted ‘em. Tough back-to-back. … I think that’s a pretty good situation. It’s just too bad we weren’t able to close ‘em out.” The Jets gave up an average of 36.5 shots in the two overtime losses and hope to give their goalie a little easier night against the Penguins. Steve Mason was brought in as a free agent to be the No. 1 goaliea nd he stopped 35 of 37 shots in the loss to Columbus, his best start of the season after allowing 16 goals in his first three outings. “He played great,” Wheeler told reporters. “I think we finally gave him a fighting chance. … There were a couple of times in the first period we were stuck in there and he battled hard for us.” Left wing Nikolaj Ehlers has been kept off the scoresheet in the last two games after notching all six of his team-leading goals in the previous five contests. The pick: The above all sounds good for Winnipeg but the Penguins have scored 17 goals while winning their last four meetings with the Jets. Steve Mason has struggled to an 0-3-1 record in four starts but is coming off a solid outing against Columbus. Still, it's expected that Winnipeg will likely turn to Connor Hellebuyck, who has gone 4-0-1 in his five starts this season (2.25 GAA & .931 SP). The goalies are not known for sure at this time but either way, the Pens are the 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Cowboys -1 v. Redskins | Top | 33-19 | Win | 100 | 95 h 11 m | Show |
The set: One of the NFL's best rivalries is set for Week 8 at FedEx Field on Sunday, with an NFC East matchup between the 3-3 Dallas Cowboys and the 3-3 Washington Redskins. The Cowboys are coming off a 40-10 win at San Francisco, rebounding after losing back-to-back games versus the Rams and Packers. Meanwhile, the Redskins are off a 34-24 MNF loss in Philly against the Eagles, which left both Dallas and Washington 2 1/2 games back of the first-place 6-1 Eagles in the NFC East. Dallas: Ezekiel Elliott has been fighting a six-game suspension in court and that drama will last at least one more week with another hearing scheduled for Monday. He's coming off his best game of the season last week at San Francisco, when he rushed for 147 yards and two TDs, while also adding a 72-yard receiving score. Elliott has 540 rushing yards (4.1 YPC) and four TDs. QB Dak Prescott is having another excellent season, passing for 234 yards and three TDs last Sunday. He's now thrown for 1,426 yards with 14 TDs and only four INTs (98.2 QB rating). He's run for 152 yards (7.6 YPC) with four TDs, as part of a Dallas ground game averaging 147.5 YPG (2nd). Washington: Kirk Cousins played well Monday night (303 yards with three TDs) but he couldn't match Philly's Wentz (4 TDs). He enters this game completing 68.3 percent with 12 TDs and three INTs for a 107.2 QB rating. Washington's running game isn't much and the Redskins rank 11th in scoring 23.5 PPG. The defense ranks near the bottom of the league, allowing 24.5 PPG (26th). The pick: Washington saw three offensive linemen injured against the Eagles. Left tackle Trent Williams aggravated his right knee, right tackle Morgan Moses sprained both ankles and right guard Brandon Scherff suffered a knee sprain. Center Spencer Long (knee) is also hurting. With 13 players limited or worse, the Redskins didn't even practice Wednesday, opting instead for a walk-through. That can't be good news, playing on a short week. Keeping Elliott on the field for this game is huge for Dallas, as he and Prescott continue to give the Cowboys quite a 1-2 punch. Note that Prescott's 14 TD passes through six games has only been bettered in franchise history by Don Meredith (1966) and Tony Romo (2009), who each had 15 TD passes. The Dallas D is still a little suspect but the offense, averaging 33.7 PPG the last three games, 'covers' the day. Make Dallas an 8* play. |
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10-29-17 | Bucks v. Hawks OVER 203.5 | Top | 117-106 | Win | 100 | 16 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Atlanta Hawks opened the season with five consecutive road games and after winning their season-opener at Dallas, lost the final four games of the road trip. The Hawks returned to Atlanta for their first home game of the new season on Friday but lost to the Nuggets and former Atlanta star Pail Millsap, 105-100. Atlanta now hopes to snap its five-game slide when the 3-2 Milwaukee Bucks visit Philips Arena for a late Sunday afternoon contest. The Bucks just completed a four-game homestand 2-2 and begin a stretch of five of six on the road with this contest. Milwaukee: The Bucks head out on the road off a a 96-89 loss to the Boston Celtics on Thursday, the team's lowest-scoring performance of the season. "I thought the ball just didn't move tonight as it has in the first couple games," Milwaukee head coach Jason Kidd told reporters after the loss. "It's a great lesson learned, we'll watch it (Friday) and understand how we've got to move the ball. We got some good looks but when the ball didn't move it wasn't a pretty game to watch." Giannis Antetokounmpo is one of the league's brightest stars, averaging 35.0 points (on 62.4 percent shooting) along with 10.6 rebounds, 5.6 assists and 2.4 steals. Malcolm Brogdon was last season's NBA rookie of the year, becoming only second Milwaukee player to earn the award, joining Lew Alcindor (Kareem Abdul-Jabbar), who won it in 1969-70. He grew up in the Atlanta suburbs and led his school to two state championships. Brogdon was Milwaukee's second-round pick in 2016 and ranked toward the top of most statistical categories among rookies. He led rookies in assists (4.2), steals (1.1), was second in minutes (26.4), third in points (10.2) and ninth in rebounds (2.8). Atlanta: The Hawks own the second-longest run of postseason appearances in the NBA (10) but Atlanta hardly looks like a playoff team so far. The Hawks are building their offense around PG Dennis Schroder, wheo became the unquestioned leader of the team when Millsap and company departed over the summer. Schroder missed two games with an ankle injury and returned at less than 100 percent on Friday but still managed 20 points and six assists in 33 minutes. “I played him a little bit more than I wanted to, or intended,” Hawks coach Mike Budenholzer told reporters of Schroder. “He never wants to come out. Considering he hasn’t played for five days and coming off a pretty good sprain, it’s impressive what he did. He wanted to be there for his teammates. He’s a tough guy, for sure.” The pick: Atlanta has covered five straight against Milwaukee and the “Greek Freak” but as noted, this Hawk contingent bears little resemblance to the teams of recent seasons. Coming off an 'ugly' 89-point effort vs. Boston, I expect the Bucks to much more efficient in this one and with this low over/under number, for the Over to be a 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Raiders v. Bills -2.5 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 92 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-4 Oakland Raiders will travel to Buffalo's NewEra Field on Sunday afternoon to take on the 4-2 Bills. The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, the Raiders lost four in a row, before snapping their slide with a last-second victory in a Week 7 Thursday game, 31-30 at home against the hated-Chiefs. Meanwhile, new Buffalo head coach Sean McDermott has his team at 4-2, one of NFL 2017's true surprises. The Bills edged the Bucs 30-27 last Sunday, improving to 3-0 SU at home and on the season, have gone 4-1-1 ATS in all games. Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game but he had a mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams in Week 6 (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating). However, he returned to form against the Chiefs, passing for 417 yards and three TDs. The vertical passing game has been a staple in Oakland since the franchise's inception but deep threat Amari Cooper had just 18 catches while averaging only 8.1 YPC on the season going into that game with KC, when he broke out with 11 catches for 210 yards and two TDs. TE Jared Cook joined the 100-yard club himself, with six catches for 107 yards. However, Oakland's running game continues to be bust (Lynch is no 'beast,' rather just a pain in the ass), as Oakland will enter this game averaging 92.9 YPG on the ground (24th). The Oakland D ranks 26th in yards allowed (360.6 per) and 18th in scoring at 22.3 PPG. Buffalo: QB Tyrod Taylor threw for 268 yards and a TD on 20 of 33 passing, against the Bucs but Buffalo will come into this game ranking 29th (of 32 teams) with only 181.0 YPG through the air. Buffalo led the NFL in rushing last year (164.4 YPG on 5.3 YPC), led by LeSean McCoy 's 1,267 yards (5.4 YPC and 13 rushing TDs). However, the Bills were averaging only 106.6 YPG on 3.4 YPC heading into last Sunday. There was good news though, as McCoy ran for 91 yards and a pair of rushing scores plus led the team with five receptions. As a team, Buffalo ran for 173 yards, which is "much more like it!" Buffalo's D has also held its own so far in 2017, allowing 16.8 PPG to rank 4th. The pick: Isn't it interesting that new Bills hed coach Sean McDermott has been coaxing a lot more out of the Buffalo “D” than Rex Ryan ("the defensive genius") did the past two years! Buffalo's revamped 2ndary has nine INTs, which in concert with a mistake-free offense (only three giveaways), leaves Buffalo with an NFL-best plus-10 TO margin. Make the Bills a 10* play. |
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10-29-17 | Vikings v. Browns OVER 37.5 | Top | 33-16 | Win | 100 | 88 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's latest London game kicks off Sunday's Week 8 schedule of games at Twickenham Stadium. The 5-2 Minnesota Vikings and the 0-7 Cleveland Browns wil lstart at 9:30 ET, as the Browns will play a regular-season game in London for the first time in franchise history. The Vikings enter on a three-game winning streak and sit atop the NFC North and with Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers likely out for the season, are 'sniffing' a division title. For the Browns, they are off an 'ugly' 1-15 season and there has been no indication so far, that too much will be different here in 2017. The Browns have led in a game only once this season, 7-3 over the Jets in the fifth game, and that advantage lasted only 5:06 before New York moved ahead for good. Minnesota: The Vikings have topped 30 points just once all season, averaging a modest 20.9 PPG (19th). However, Minnesota's defense has compensated, allowing 17.0 PPG (5th) on 283.0 YPG (4th). Minnesota's offense has seen QB Sam Bradford (knee) in and out of the lineup and excellent rookie RB Dalvin Cook (354 YR on 4.8 YPC) was lost for the season with a torn ACL in Week 4. However, Case Keenum is 3-2 as a starter and relieved Bradford in a comeback 20-17 win over the Bears in Week 5. RBs Latavius Murray and Jerick McKinnon have stepped up since Cook was lost for the season. Again, the Vikings’ defense has been terrific, holding four straight opponents under 275 total yards, after allowing a season-low 208 yards in a 24-16 win over Baltimore last week. Cleveland:The QB history of the Browns (for quite awhile now) has been a complete disaster. Rookie DeShone Kizer has just three TD passes and 11 INTs (awful 47.8 QB rating), while Kevin Hogan is no better. He has five INTs in way fewer attempts and owns a higher interception percentage than Kizer. The Browns don't own much of a running game (92.3 YPG ranks 25th) and the team's 14.7 PPG is the second-lowest in the NFL. The defense allows 304.7 YPG (9th) but with all the turnovers putting the defense in tough spots, Cleveland is allowing 24.1 PPG, which ranks 24th. The pick: The Vikings have not scored much and neither have the Browns. However, these London games always create a different atmosphere, and with a low total, the Over is an 8* play |
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10-28-17 | Pistons v. Clippers OVER 207.5 | Top | 95-87 | Loss | -110 | 16 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Who needs Chris Paul? The Clippers and Paul parted ways in the off-season, as he traded to the Rockets but the 'new-look" Clippers, now clearly led by Blake Griffin, are off to a 4-0 start. The Rockets may be 5-1 but the Clippers are currently the lone unbeaten team in the young NBA season and will look to make it a 5-0 start when the Pistons visit Staples Center on Saturday night.The Pistons are 3-2 and have quite a weekend in store, playing the Clippers tonight and then heading north for a game with the defending champion Warriors Sunday night in Oakland. Detroit: The only consistent theme this year so far for the Pistons is the team's inconsistency, as Detroit has alternated wins and losses through its first five games. However, the Pistons are arguably coming off their best performance of the season, a 122-101 victory over the Minnesota Timberwolves this past Wednesday. Tobias Harris led the way with 34 points against the T-wloves and leads Detroit in scoring at 23.6 PPG (adds 5.4 RPG). The team also has three other double digit scorers in PG Jackson (15.2 & 6.2 APG), SG Bradley (14.6) and center Drummond (13.4 & 13.2). LA Clippers: Los Angeles remains undefeated thanks to star forward Blake Griffin, who buried a last-second three-pointer in Thursday's 104-103 win at Portland. Griffin is settling nicely into his role as the team's undisputed leader, averaging 26.3-9.3-4.5. Paul is not the only player gone from last year's LA team, as so are double-digit scorers Redick (15.0) and Crawford (12.3) plus a solid frontcourt player in Speights (8.7 & 4.5). Supporting Griffin are guards Beverley (14.3) and Williams (13.0 & 4.3 APG) along with SF Gallinari (13.3 & 5.5). Griffin has scored at least 22 points in each of Los Angeles' first four games and leads the team in assists (4.5). That said, he is not the only star player left on the Clippers, as center DeAndre Jordan hauled in 18 rebounds for the second straight game on Thursday and checks in averaging 9.5 & 18.3. The pick: The Pistons have faltered in games following their first two wins, as they've followed up a 12-point win at Charlotte with a four-point loss in Washington and then scoring 86 points in a loss to Philadelphia after last week's win in New York. Detroit had lost 11 consecutive games game in the series before a 108-97 home win back on Nov. 25, 2016. The Clippers are allowing a league-low 91.8 PPG but are averaging 116.0 PPG here at Staples Center, while the Pistons are scoring 111.0 PPG and allowing 111.0 PPG on the road in the early going. This game will be higher scoring than the posted total anticipates. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-28-17 | Washington State -3 v. Arizona | Top | 37-58 | Loss | -107 | 78 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington State Cougars are 7-1 (4-1 in Pac 12) and will travel to Arizona Stadium to take on the 5-2 Arizona Wildcats (3-1 in Pac 12) this Saturday night. The Cougars rose to No. 8 in the AP poll on Oct. 8 but the following week were crushed 37-3 at Cal, when QB Luke Falk threw five INTs. Washington rebounded last Saturday and shut out Colorado 28-0. The Arizona Wildcats defeated those very same Cal Bears this past Saturday, 45-44 in double OT. However, the Wildcats are still searching for a marquee win, as Arizona's lone game against a ranked opponent was a 30-24 home loss to then-No. 23 Utah, back on Sep. 23. Arizona leads the all-time series 26-16 but Washington State has won the last two meetings, including a 69-7 rout in Pullman last season. Washington State: The Cougars are currently No. 15 in the AP poll and tied with Stanford at 4-1 (Stanford plays Thursday night) in the Pac 12 North (Washington lurks at 3-1). QB Luke Falk is the NCAA's active career leader in passing yards with 13,376, TD passes with 111 and yards per game at 343. He needs 225 yards passing to break former Oregon State quarterback Sean Mannion's Pac-12 passing record of 13,600 yards and six TDs to break former USC quarterback Matt Barkley's Pac-12 passing TD record of 116. Who knows where his five-INT game vs. Cal came from, as in Washington State's seven wins, Falk has 22 TDs and just two INTs (in 296 pass attempts)! Mike Leach's teams have always been known fro their offense (especially through the air) but the reason the 2017 Cougars have a chance to make some real 'noise' is because the team enters this contest allowing just 18.5 PPG (21st) on 274.5 YPG (7th). In Leach's previous five years in Pullman, the Cougars have allowed anywhere from a low of 26.4 PPG (2016) to a high of 38.6 PPG (2014). Arizona: The Wildcats are averaging 43.1 PPG (5th) on 514.7 YPG (7th), with QB Khalil Tate sparking a ground game which has averaged 343.4 YPG (4th) on 7.0 YPC. Tate took over as the starting QB after Arizona opened 2-2 and has led the Wildcats to three straight wins, in which they've averaged 45.7 PPG. Tate has 694 rushing yards in the winning streak (231.4 per game) and has scored seven rushing TDs (he's completed 75.6% in the steak with four TDs and one INT). Arizona's defense will have its hands full with Falk, as the Wildcats are allowing 425.4 YPG (98th), including 257.6 YPG through the air (99th). The pick: Arizona prevented the game winning two-point conversation attempt by the Golden Bears last Saturday but know how much tougher it will be here vs. Washington State. Tate will face his toughest test yet, up against WSU's smothering front-7, which is allowing a modest 120.6 YPG on the ground (23rd). Throw in that the Cougars are a money-making 16-8 ATS on the road since 2013 and it's an 8* play on Washington State. |
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10-28-17 | Dodgers +118 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 118 | 13 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros came out for the 8th inning of Game 2 down 3-1 and on the verge of falling into an 0-2 'hole' in the 2017 World Series. However, the Houston bats finally 'came alive' and LA's un-hittable bullpen finally proved itself human. The Astros scored six runs over the final four innings of Game 2 to win 7-6 (11 innings) and last night back in Houston, KO'd Yu Darvish with a four-run the second inning (the shortest start of his career), leading to a 5-3 Game 3 victory. All of a sudden, the Astros are two wins away from winning the first World Series title in franchise history. Just as suddenly, the Dodgers' 104-win season is on the verge of becoming irrelevant. Houston's bats finally began hitting the late innings of Game 2 and followed with five runs on 12 hits in Game 3. LA's bullpen has suddenly become vulnerable and may more importantly, has been "stretched to its limits," with manager Dave Roberts using eight relievers over seven innings of Game 2 and five relievers in Game 3, for 6 1/3 innings. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (0-1 & 5.79 ERA) is making just his second postseaon start of 2017 and will be opposed by Charlie Morton (1-1 & 6.23), who came up big for the Astros (5 IP / 0 Runs) in Houston's Game 7-clincher in the ALCS. Wood's only previous playoff start of 2017 was Game 4 in the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs. He allowed three runs (all on solo homers) and four hits while striking out seven over 4 2/3 innings of a game LA lost 3-2. Morton is in his 10th big-league season, but authored a "career year," going 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA, The Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). However, Morton hasn't pitched more than five innings in any of his three postseason starts and now gets to make his first World Series start. "It's an honor," Morton said at his Friday press conference. "Most people don't get a chance to play in the postseason, let alone in a Championship Series or the World Series. I'm going to try to enjoy it, but at the same time I've got a job to do." The pick: Is Morton ready for the challenge? I wouldn't bet on it plus manager A.J. Hinch can't possibly have much faith in his bullpen. He used Peacock (primarily a starter) for an eight-out save last night, which means 'the usual suspects" will be expected to come in when Morton is pulled by the fifth inning or so. Sure, Wood is making just his second starts in 31 days but he paced the majors in winning percentage (.842) after finishing 16-3 with a career-best 2.72 ERA in 27 appearances (25 starts). His 3.3 WAR represented the second-best mark of his career, trailing the 3.7 WAR he produced with the Atlanta Braves while finishing 11-11 with a 2.78 ERA in 2014. Houston struggled against LA's two-left-handed starters, as Kershaw and Hill (before he was lifted too soon), kept the Astros in check, allowing just two runs (both on solo HRs) over 11 innings. With another lefty starter here, make the Dodgers a 10* |
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10-28-17 | Flyers v. Maple Leafs -155 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 12 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Flyers are 5-5-0 to open the season, after dropping a second straight contest with a 5-4 setback against flu-ridden Ottawa on Thursday. Philly caps a short two-game road trip tonight in Toronto against the 7-3-0 Maple Leafs. Toronto is concluding a three-game homestand versus Philadelphia, coming off a 6-3 loss to Carolina. "We disappointed ourselves," head coach Mike Babcock said of Thursday's loss. "We had a little chat (Friday), but more importantly got to work for a short period of time. I thought they worked hard. I didn't want anybody out there wasting any energy fooling around. I want it at game time." Philadelphia: The Flyers have allowed 11 goals in two games without defenseman Andrew MacDonald, who is expected to be sidelined at least a month after a blocking a shot by Edmonton's Mark Letestu last week. Sean Couturier has upped his offensive game. He had a modest 14 goals in 66 outings last season but has scored a team-high seven times in just 10 games this season. Fellow forward Jakub Voracek netted his first goal on Thursday but with 13 assists, owns a team-high 14 points. Toronto: Auston Matthews increased his point total to six (three goals, three assists) in his past four games with a goal and an assist on Thursday. He has 14 points (8 goals / 6 assists) to lead a team which is averaging a league-high 4.30 GPG. Toronto's power play has been clicking, with a 28.2 percentage, which ranks third-best in the NHL. Toronto is allowing 34.2 shots on goal per game, which is contributing to Frederik Andersen's less-than-stellar goals-against average (3.54) and save percentage (.893). However, he has started nine of 10 games with 6-3-0 mark. The pick: Brian Elliott (4-2-0 with a 3.33 GAA and .876 SP) is expected to be in goal tonight for Philly and the Flyers figure to have a tough time here in Toronto, where the Maple Leafs are averaging 4.50 GPG. Philly was just 14-22-5 on the road last season. Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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10-28-17 | Penn State v. Ohio State -6 | Top | 38-39 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Penn State Nittany Lions are ranked No. 2 behind Alabama and looked every bit like the nation's second-ranked team last Saturday, taking down then-No. 109 Michigan, 42-13. Saquon Barkley ran for 108 yards (just 15 carries) and two TDs plus added a juggling 42-yard TD catch for a third score. QB Trace McSorley also had a huge game, throwing for 282 yards and a TD, while rushing for 76 yards and scoring three times on the ground. All the while, the 6th-ranked Buckeyes had teh weekend off and were surelty plotting how they woulkd deal with not only Penn State's offense (averaging 40.0 PPG) but with a defense which ranks first ins coring (9.6 PPG) on 282.9 YPG (ranks 9th). Penn State: Speaking about not forgetting, Penn State won't forget last year, either. The Nittany Lions not only topped Ohio State but also won the Big Ten East and the Big Ten championship game over Wisconsin. However, when all the dust had settled, it was Ohio Stae which advanced to the four-team CFP from the Big Ten, not Penn State! The Nittany Lions' dramatic upset of Ohio State last season featured a fourth-quarter rally capped by a blocked FG returned for a TD. However, Penn State was out-gained 413-to-276 in that game, so it will have to paly much better here, to pull off a win. Penn State's offense revolves around Barkley, who leads the country in all-purpose yards and has scored a TD in 14 consecutive games. The Nittany Lions will use him in multiple ways as they did last week against Michigan, taking direct snaps, split wide, in the slot and on kickoff returns.That said, Penn St. will also need for McSorley to step up, unlike last season , when he was just 8 of 23 for 154 passing yards. Ohio State: The Buckeyes have been playing "catch up" ever since losing 31-16 at home to Oklahoma Sep. 9. That said, they've been doing quite a good job indeed of catching up! Ohio State has steamrolled opponents since its early loss to Oklahoma, winning five in a row by an average of 42.0 PPG, The Buckeyes have topped 500 yards of offense in each of those five straight victories (the longest such streak in team history), and will enter this game tied for the FBS lead in scoring at 47.3 PPG. Ohio State averages 577.3 YPG, which ranks 3rd. J.T. Barrett has "been on a mission" since not playing well vs. Oklahoma, completing 72.3 percent of his passes for 1,361 yards (270.2 per) with 18 TD passes and not a single iNT in 137 pass attempts. He's added 232 rushing yards, along with four TDs on the ground. Lat year's star freshman RB Weber has been slowed by injuries (just 227 YR / 4 TDs) but freshman Dobbins has picked up the slack, rushing for 775 yards on 7.8 YPC (5 TDs). Ohio State can't quite match Penn State's defensive stats but the Buckeyes are allowing a modest 15.4 PPG (10th) on 305.3 YPG (16th) The pick: It's bordering on sacrilege at Ohio State to say there's a bigger game on the schedule than its annual game with hated rival Michigan but a loss here at home to Penn Sate, would likely make OSU's season-ender at Ann Arbor insignificant. Ohio State has rolled over 'cupcakes' but now has a real test. However, the Buckeyes had won 11 of the previous 14 meetings prior to last year's encounter, one which they dominated, statistically. One last thought. Ohio State is off a bye and Urban-Meyer coached teams are a perfect 20-0 SU run following a bye, last losing when he was back coaching Bowling Green. Lay the points and make Ohio St. a 10* play. |
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10-28-17 | Oklahoma State v. West Virginia UNDER 74 | Top | 50-39 | Loss | -110 | 68 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cowboys were held under 41 points for the first time last Saturday at Texas but were able to escape with a 13-10 OT win over the Longhorns, keeping the team's CFP hopes alive. The 11th-ranked Cowboys are 6-1 overall (3-1 in the Big 12) and will travel to Milan Puskar Stadium in Morgantown to take on the 22nd-ranked West Virginia Mountaineers, who are 5-2 overall and also 3-1 in Big 12 play. The series is tied at 4-all but OSU has won the last two years, 37-20 and 33-26 (OT). Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph already owns 30 school records and enters this contest leading the nation in passing yards (2,650) and passing yards per game (378.6). He's completed 161-of-242 attempts (66.5 percent) for 19 TDs and four INTs. He's backed by an solid rushing game (197.4 YPG which ranks 38th), led by RB Hill (750 YR / 5.4 YPC). OSU averages 43.7 PPG (3rd) on 590.1 YPG (1st). Defensively, OSU allows 22.3 PPG (43rd) on 359.7 YPG (41st), and the team's stop unit "saved the day" against Texas. The Longhorns were held to just 10 points on 283 yards, while converting only 3 of 17 third down attempts. West Virginia: QB Will Grier has the misfortune of playing in the same conference as Heisman Trophy contenders like Oklahoma's Baker Mayfield and Oklahoma State's Mason Rudolph. However, Grier is some talent, completing 66.3 percent with 26 TDs and just five INTs, leading West Va to rank 4th in passing YPG at 364.0. Grier's favorite target is WR David Sills V, once a highly touted prep QB prospect himself, who leads the nation with 15 TD receptions. RB Crawford (639 YR / 6.1 YPC / 7 TDs) offers nice balance, with West Va/ checking in averaging 43.3 PPG (4th) on 540.1 YPG (5th). Defensively, West Va. allows 29.0 PPG (85th) on 450.0 YPG (12th). The pick: The QB matchup commands the spotlight plus WR James Washington of OSU (leads the nation with an average of 24.1 YPC and his 32 career receiving TDs is tops among all active FBS players) will not want to accept "second-billing" to West Virginia's David Sills V (see above). Oklahoma State returns home next Saturday for "Bedlam" with Oklahoma but that game won't hold much importance if the Cowboys lose here. Yes, these are two offensive juggernauts but I've 'made a living:" playing these high totals under, all season. Second verse, same as the first. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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10-28-17 | Buffalo University v. Akron -3 | Top | 20-21 | Loss | -125 | 68 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: It's the final Saturday in October for college football and as has become a custom, the MAC will dominate weekday games in November. In fact, the only MAC teams playing on Saturday will be the Buffalo Bulls (3-5 / 1-3 in the MAC) taking on the Akron Zips (4-4 / 3-1 in the MAC). Buffalo last had a winning season in 2013 and is coming off a 2-10 season in 2016. Buffalo's 24-14 loss last Saturday at Miami-O makes it three straight defeats and leaves them 1-3 in the MAC East. Akron is coming off its first conference loss this season last Saturday, falling 48-21 at Toledo. However, the Zips are still 3-1 in the MAC East, tied with Ohio U at the top of the division. Buffalo: Drew Anderson is Buffalo's best QB (10 TDs / 1 INT) but is doubtful in this contest with a shoulder injury (he missed last Saturday's loss). With Anderson, Buffalo is a mediocre offense but without him, the Bulls are in trouble. Down to its third QB at Miami last Saturday, the Bulls gained just 271 yards and have averaged just 2.3 YPC on the ground in their three games. Buffalo's defense is allowing 25.1 PPG (61st) on 407.6 YPG (80th). Akron: The Zips were gashed for 626 yards by Toledo and on the season have allowed 443.0 YPG (108th) and 25.6 PPG (63rd). Both Thomas Woodson and Robbie Kelly played QB last time out for Akron, combining to go 23 of 40 for 291 yards with three TDs and an interception. Woodson is the starter and has 11 TDs and seven INTs on the season. However, the Zips can't afford to run for just 42 yards like they did last Saturday on 24 carries. On the season, Akron is averaging only 114.9 YPG (116th). Defensively, Akron is allowing 25.6 PPG (63rd) on 443.0 YPG (108th). The pick: Getting bowled over by Toledo is one thing but Buffalo is another story. Buffalo was 0-6 SU on the road in 2016 and is 1-3 here in 2017. Considering the visitor has lost eight of the last nine in this series, making Akron an 8* play "feels just right!" |
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10-27-17 | Dodgers v. Astros UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: It seems impossible that the Dodgers and Astros will be able to top the drama of Game 2 in tonight's Game 3, as the 2017 World Series shifts venues to Houston's Minute Maid Park. The teams combined for a World Series-record eight HRs in Game 2 with George Springer's two-run shot in the 11th inning finally deciding the outcome, as the Astros' come-from-behind 7-6 victory evened the series at one-all. Along with the record number of home runs, the other story line coming out of Game 2 was that the LA bullpen finally showed some vulnerability. Eight LA relievers pitched seven innings and allowed 11 hits (including three of Houston's four HRs) and six runs, ending a 28-inning scoreless stretch in the 2017 postseason. The teams will now play three games in Houston and unless one team sweeps all three (seems very unlikely, right?), the series will return to LA for a Game 6 and a possible Game 7. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (2-0 & 1.59 ERA) starts for LA and Lance McCullers Jr. (0-0 & 2.08). Darvish was 4-3 with a 3.44 ERA in nine regular-season starts after the Dodgers acquired him from Texas, where he was only 6-9 with a 4.01 ERA. His moneyline mark this regular season (Texas and LA combined), was minus-$1302, the third-worst among all 2017 starters and he entered the postseason 0-2 with 5.40 ERA in two previous starts with Texas. However, Darvish has struck out 14 batters in 11 1/3 innings this postseason to improve to 2-2 with a 3.52 ERA in four career playoff starts. He also has a nice history at Minute Maid Park during his tenure with Texas, going 4-1 with a 2.16 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in six career outings. McCullers has posted a 2.33 ERA in four career playoff appearances (two starts) and is making his second start this postseason. He took a shutout into the seventh inning of Game 4 of the ALCS but allowed a lead-off HR to Aaron Judge and was removed with a 4-1 lead. A.J. Hinch's decision didn't work, as Houston's bullpen gave up five runs in a 6-4 New York win. However, Hinch handed the ball in Game 7 of that series to McCullers again and he delivered four shutout innings in Houston's 4-0 series-clinching Game 7 victory. The pick: Both teams have 'deadly' lineups but both Darvish and McCullers seem up to the challenge. Darvish's turnaround came with his strong finish to the regular season (one ER allowed over his final three starts for an 0.47 ERA in 19 1/3 innings with a 21-1 KW ratio). McCullers struggled down the stretch and was not given a start until Houston's eighth postseason contest (Game 4 of the ALCS) but as noted, he delivered a quality effort in that game (should never have been taken out after the Judge HR) and then closed the door on the Yanks in Game 7 of the ALCS, pitching four scoreless innings while allowing just one hit with six Ks. In his last 10 postseason innings, he''s allowed just one ER (0.90 ERA) on three hits with nine Ks. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-27-17 | Florida State -3 v. Boston College | Top | 3-35 | Loss | -125 | 52 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida State opened the 2-017 season ranked No. 3 in the AP's preseason poll but right out of the box, had a date with No. 1 Alabama in Atlanta on Sep. 2, The Seminoles lost more than a game in that contest, as in the fourth quarter of Alabama's 24-7 win, FSU lost its starting QB, Deondre Francois, to a season-ending injury. FSU will visit Alumni Stadium in Chestnut Hill, Ma. with a 2-4 record on Friday, to take on 4-4 BC Eagles. Who could have ever predicted that this game, on the last Saturday of October, would see the Eagles entering with twice as many wins as the Seminoles? Florida State: True freshman James Blackman has stepped in at QB, completing 57.6 percent for 1,047 yards with seven TDs and six INTs. RBs Akers (454 on 5.2 YPC) and Patrick (434 on 5.7 YPG) both own impressive YPC averages but FSU only averages 146,4 YPG on the ground (87th), which isn't enough with a passing attack averaging only 209.5 YPG (77th). More bad news is that Patrick (knee) is now likely out for the rest of season. FSU entered this season having averaged 30-plus PPG in every season since 2008, last averaging under that figure back in 2007, at 23.3 PPG. The 2017 edition is averaging a pathetic 19.8 PPG (116th). The defense has been solid (22.5 PPG ranks 45th and 350.3 YPG ranks 33rd) but with the team's offensive woes, it hasn't much mattered. Boston College: The Eagles are now 4-4 (2-3 in the ACC), after winning three of their last four games. Last Saturday's 41-10 win at Virginia saw redshirt freshman QB Antony Brown have his best game of the season, throwing for 275 yards with three TDs. "We have scored 40 points in back-to-back games, the first time the school has ever done that in the history of Boston College," head coach Steve Addazio told reporters this week. "Either Big East or ACC and first time in the ACC since we have been in that we have had two back-to-back over five hundred yards of offense. I think that helps you and it builds confidence." The pick: OK, Boston College does enter in better form than FSU, as the Eagles are on a five-game winning ATS run and in back-to-back wins, have discovered a one-two 'punch' with freshman RB Dillon (361 rushing yard) complementing QB Brown. That said, after 41-and 45-point games (as well as running up 500-plus yards in each), the Eagles are still averaging a modest 23.0 PPG (101st) on 375.2 YPG (88th) for the season. Bottom line is this. Florida State is 7-0 SU against Boston College under Fisher and this line is more than 'doable.' Make FSU a 10* play. |
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10-27-17 | Rockets v. Hornets OVER 211 | Top | 109-93 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Quite naturally, the city of Houston is all wrapped-up with the Astros, who will host the Dodgers Friday, Saturday and Sunday in the 2017 World Series. However, that city's NBA team, the Rockets, tipped-off the 2017-18 season with a stirring 122-121 comeback win at Golden State back on Opening Night (Oct. 17th). Houston is 4-1 and will visit the Charlotte Hornets Friday night for the second of a three-game road trip. The Hornets have opened their season 2-2 (0-2 on the road but 2-0 at home). Houston: The Rockets opened a three-game trip with a 105-104 victory at Philadelphia on Wednesday, with a buzzer-beating three-pointer from Eric Gordon providing the difference. Center Clint Capela was brilliant in the win, scoring 16 points, grabbing 20 rebounds and adding four blocks. SF Trevor Ariza (foot) sat out Wednesday and is day-to-day plus Chris Paul (strained left knee) hasn't played since the season-opener. Gordon had 29 points (24.6 PPG) and James Harden 27 (26.4 & 9.6 APG) but neither shot well from long distance in the game. Gordon went just 5-for-16 from beyond the arc, Harden 2-for-8. Houston is still not where it wants to be on offense, shooting just 28.1 percent from three-point range. Charlotte: PG Kemba Walker (21.0 & 6.0 APG), SG Jeremy Lamb (15.8) and reserve PF Frank Kaminsky (15.8) are off to good starts for Charlotte, as is the team's biggest addition from the off-season, Dwight Howard. The one-time Rocket is averaging 13.3 PPG and a whopping 18.8 RPG. The Hornets are 0-2 on the road but have won their two home games by scores of 111-96 and 109-91. |
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10-27-17 | Jets v. Blue Jackets -179 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Columbus Blue Jackets have opened 6-3-0 but need a win here at home against Winnipeg tonight, to earn a split of what's been a four-game homestand. The Blue Jackets began this current stretch at Nationwide Arena with losses to Tampa Bay and Los Angeles, before turning the tide with a 5-1 triumph over Buffalo on Wednesday. Winnipeg: Josh Morrissey scored the lone goal for Winnipeg as it suffered its 17th consecutive loss in Pittsburgh to the two-time defending champs. Coming off a five-day break, the Jets played the Penguins to a stalemate Thursday before a turnover led to Phil Kessel's winning goal 67 seconds into the extra period. "Not a bad way to start the road trip," Winnipeg coach Paul Maurice said. "We've to go into Columbus and make amends for our last game and play a quicker game and keep going." Nikolaj Ehlers has scored all of his team-leading six goals over his last six contests. Columbus: Thirteen players found their way onto the scoresheet in Wednesday's 5-1 win, as the Blue Jackets had five different goal-scorers. Nick Foligno has been a consistent scorer for the Jets so far, notching at least one point in seven of his nine games. The captain has recorded a goal in three of his last four contests and ranks second on the team with eight points, two behind leader Artemi Panarin. The Blue Jackets are off to their best start in franchise history but head coach John Tortorella is still tinkering with his forward lines. He was unhappy with the chemistry early in the Wednesday game and he shuffled the lines several times in an attempt to find suitable pairings. Tortorella said he thinks he found several combinations that worked well together, including a top three of Nick Foligno, Josh Anderson and Artemi Panarin (Foligno and Anderson scored against the Sabres). The pick: Winnipeg goalie Connor Hellebuyck (4-1-0, 2.25 GAA & .931 SP) had a big game Thursday, stopping 34 shots, but it is uncertain who will start in the net against the Blue Jackets. Backup Steve Mason hasn't started since the last game against Columbus (Oct. 17), when the Jets lost 5-2 at home to the Blue Jackets. Word is that Mason will bet the start, which I'd like, as he's 0-3-0 with a 5.98 GAA and .86 SP this season.. Sergei Bobrovsky (5-2-0, 2.00 GAA & .934 SP) is expected to start in goal for Blue Jackets and regardless of who is in goal, it's an 8* play on Columbus. |
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10-26-17 | Clippers v. Blazers OVER 211.5 | Top | 104-103 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA season is just over a week old and there are currently only two remaining unbeatens. The SA Spurs moved to 4-0 with a win last night in Miami and tonight, the LA Clippers will take to the Moda Center floor against the Portland Trail Blazers looking to join the Spurs at 4-0. The Blazers are a strong offensive team, averaging 112.8 PPG (7th) and are hitting 44.4 percent from three-point range (2nd) to check in at 3-1 on the young season. LA Clippers: The Clippers traded away franchise cornerstone PG Chris Paul over the summer but also gone are double-digit scorers Redick and Crawford plus a solid frontcourt player in Speights (8.7 & 4.5). Blake Griffin is now "the man" and taking on a bigger role with Paul gone. He's averaging 26.7-9.7-4.3. Center Jordan is still around and averaging 10.3 & 18.3 but three new additions have also shown well early. Guards Beverley (14.7) and Williams (13.0 & 5.3 APG) plus swingman Gallinari (12.3 & 6.3) have all stepped up nightly. However, it's LA's defense which has led to the team's 3-0 start, with the Clippers ranking first in points allowed (88.0), opponents' FG percentage (40.7) and opponents' three-point percentage (29.0). Portland: The Blazers have a terrific guard tandem in McCollum (25.7 & 4.7) and Lillard (21.0-5.5-5.1) plus big guards Turner (13.2 & 4.2) and Cannaughton (10.8) are contributing as well. A key to the team's success will be the play of the 7-0 Jusef Nurkic (12.8 & 7.8), who made such a big impression after being acquired late last season in a trade with Denver. Portland, as noted, is a superior offensive team (see above) but the Blazers weren't at their best on offense against New Orleans on Tuesday, instead showing off some defensive 'chops' by holding the Pelicans to 39.5 percent shooting in a 103-93 win. The pick: The Clippers lost to the Blazers in the 2016 playoffs (Paul got hurt early in that series) but last season, took all three meetings. Now let's see how these "new-look" Clippers fare. So far, they've been able to cruise past a pair of high lottery teams in the Lakers and Suns plus had little trouble knocking off Utah 102-84, a team that knocked them out of the postseason last spring. However, this year's Utah team may not be a playoff contender this season. Portland has the makings of a strong bench and that was on display in the team's last game. Turner (13 points, seven rebounds), Ed Davis (12 points and 10 rebounds, Connaughton (eight points, six rebounds), rookie Caleb Swanigan (five points, eight boards) and Meyers Leonard (five points on 2-for-2 shooting, two boards in six minutes), all made contributions. This contest will be the second of 10 home contests for Portland over the next 11 games. It offers a chance to get the season off to a fast start. Not sure the Blazers will beat the Clippers but they will score vs. LA, forcing the Clippers to open up as well. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-26-17 | Stanford v. Oregon State OVER 58.5 | Top | 15-14 | Loss | -110 | 29 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal opened the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but after losing badly at USC 42-24 in its second game of the season and following with a 201-7 loss at San Diego State, the Cardinal's season was headed for big trouble. However, led by spectacular RB Bryce Love (198.1 YPG rushing on 10.3 YPC and 11 TDs), Stanford has won four in a row while averaging 41.0 PPG. The now 20th-ranked Cardinal will travel to Reser Stadium in Corvallis on Thursday night to take on the Oregon State Beavers. Oregon State is 1-6, beating only Portland State and that win came just 35-32 here at home. Stanford: The Cardinal last played on Oct. 14th, a 49-7 rout on the road at Oregon. The Cardinal out-gained the Ducks by a 504-309 margin. Love had 147 yards and two TDs and QB Kellar Chryst was back healthy, throwing for 181 yards (15 of 21) with three TDs. Three Stanford QBs have combined for 11 TDs and three INTs but Chryst in the best of the bunch. Stanford's defense has not allowed more than 22.6 PPG in any of the last seven seasons, allowing 19 PPG or less, four times. This year the Cardinal are allowing 22.0 PPG (42nd) but on 416.9 YPG to rank 89th (unusually high for a Stanford team). Oregon State: I noted above that OSU only owns one win, that unimpressive three-point victory over Portland, which was back on Sep. 2nd. The Beavers have since lost five in a row and a head coach as well, in Gary Andersen. Andersen stepped down on Oct. 9 after the Beavers dropped five of their first six games by an average of 31.4 PPG. Interim head coach Cory Hall's first game was Oregon State's most competitive since beating Portland State by three points on Sept. 2, but the Beavers fell to Colorado 36-33 on Oct. 14. Oregon State held a 33-29 lead with 4:22 left in that game but the Beaver defense were unable to hold the lead as Colorado scored on a 13-yard TD pass with just 1:34 left in regulation. The Beavers actually out-gained the Buffaloes by a 569-385 margin. Leading the way for Oregon State was RB Ryan Nall who carried the ball 24 times for 172 yards and 3 TDs. Defensively, Oregon State is a mess, allowing a whopping 43.7 PPG (128th) on 478.3 (117th). The pick: Expect RB Love and a now-healthy QB Chyrst to have their way against OSU's defense but also note that Satnford's D is a little 'off' in 2017, especially against the run, allowing 196.3 YPG on the ground (98th) on 5.0 YPC. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-26-17 | Dolphins v. Ravens -3 | Top | 0-40 | Win | 100 | 27 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami's 2017 season began with the Dolphins having to postpone their Week 1 game with Tampa Bay due to Hurricane Irma. It was rescheduled for Week 11 when both the Dolphins and Bucs had a bye week. That means both Miami and Tampa Bay will play 16 consecutive weeks, not the best of circumstances. However, winning their last three games, after a 1-2 start, sure has the Dolphins in a much better mood. While Miami is streaking, the Ravens' season has gone 'south.' Baltimore opened 2-0 but enters this contest having lost four of their last five, leaving them 3-4 (already two games back of the Steelers in the AFC North).. Miami: The Dolphins enter off wins over the Titans, Falcons and Jets. In that 31-28 win over New York in Week 7, Miami Matt Moore replaced an injured Jay Cutler and aided the comeback going 13 of 21 for 188 yards with two TDs and one INT (102.9 QB rating). That's much better than what Miami has seen from Cutler, who has averaged a woeful 150.3 YPG passing with seven TDs and five INTs, posting a 78.8 QB rating (approaching Flacco range!). Jay Ajayi is the leading rusher with 442 yards but the team averages only 81.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Defensively, Miami has been good, allowing 308.2 YPG (10th) and 18.7 PPG (7th). Baltimore: QB Joe Flacco missed Baltimore's entire preseason but the Ravens went 4-0. In retrospect, maybe that was a bad sign? I noted that Baltimore started the 2017 season 2-0 but Flacco sure wasn't the reason, as he passed for only 338 yards with three TDs and two INTs. Baltimore's defense allowed just 10 points those first two games and let's also note that the wins came over the Bengals and Browns (now a combined 2-11). Baltimore's defense has allowed 27.6 PPG in losing four of five and Flacco has been awful, with two TDs and six INTs. On the season, he has five TD passes and eight INTs, as Baltimore ranks 32nd in passing yards (157.4 YPG), with Flacco's QB rating of 70.0 ranking 31st among 32 starting QBs. Baltimore's running game is middle-of-the-pack and its rushing D ranks dead last, allowing 145.3 YPG. The pick: The Ravens season is surely at a 'tipping point,' as after this home game with the Dolphins, they'll play at Tennessee, have a bye week and then play at Green Bay. Lose here and any outside postseason hopes are all but dead, just halfway through the 2017 season. Matt Moore led Miami back from a 14-point deficit with a 17-point fourth quarter but John Elway, he isn't. He's a journeyman who is preparing to make his 29th career regular-season start. He's 15-13 as a starter and his career QB rating is 82.5. He'll take the field for a team unable to run the ball (see above), as the Dolphins still do not own a rushing TD. The Dolphins have been 'playing with fire' in their recent comeback wins but get 'burnt' here in Week. 8 Make Baltimore a 10* play. |
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10-26-17 | South Alabama v. Georgia State | Top | 13-21 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: It's another weekday Sun Belt Conference game Thursday night at Turner Field in Atlanta, as the 3-4 South Alabama Jaguars take on the 3-3 Georgia State Panthers. Both schools are 2-1 in SBC play but will have a tough time competing with the Appalachian State (4-0) and Arkansas State, which represent the "class" of this non-Power Conference league. The Jaguars have lost to Ole Miss, Oklahoma State, Idaho and LA. Tech, while earning wins over Alabama A&M, Troy and UL Monroe. Georgia State owns victories over Charlotte, Coastal Carolina and UL Monroe, while losing to Tennessee State, Penn State and Troy. South Alabama: The Jags won for the second straight time this past Saturday, 33-23 at home over UL Monroe. QB Dallas Davis put was 20 of 33 for 317 yards with three TD passes. He only has seven TD passes on the season plus has thrown for a modest 924 yards. The offense is averaging only 24.3 PPG (94th) on 345.4 YPG (108th) with teh defense allowing 26.4 YPG (66th) on 413.3 YPG (85th). Georgia State: The Panthers entered last Saturday's home contest with Troy on a three-game winning streak (all on the road) but ground to halt in a 34-10 loss. QB Conner Manning threw for 255 yards with one TD and one interception but got no help from his running game, as Glenn Smith led the team's rushing attack (pardon the pun) with 19 yards on 11 carries. As a team, the Panthers ran for just 52 yards on 33 attempts. That's not exactly new, as Ga. State ranks 117th with 114.2 YPG on the ground for the season. Manning has thrown for 1,516 yards but has a modest seven TDs with five INTs. The offense limps into this contest averaging only 20.3 PPG (114th) on 383.0 YPG (84th). The defense allows 27.5 PPG (76th) on 406.0 YPG (79th). The pick: South Alabama can say it's been to bowl games two of the last three seasons (and that's true) but the Jags have lost both of those games, each year finishing 6-7. South Alabama last posted a winning season back in 2011, at 6-4. Georgia State has been pretty much over-matched since moving up to FBS play in 2013, going a combined 1-23 its first two seasons. The Panthers did go 6-6 in 2015 but lost their bowl game to finish 6-7. Last year, the Panthers regressed again, going 3-9. This is a home game but is that an advantage? Georgia State's three wins have all come away from home in 2017, as the Panthers are 0-2 here at home, scoring just 10 points in losing to Tennessee St (Aug. 31) and on Oct. 21 to Troy. A win here for South Alabama gets them to 4-4 and puts them in great position to win six or seven games in 2017. The Jags do have to play Arkansas State (it's at home, though) but the team's other remaining games are against ULL (3-4), Ga. Southern (0-6) and New Mexico State (3-4). Make South Alabama a 10* play. |
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10-26-17 | Jets v. Penguins UNDER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Winnipeg Jets have been off since last Friday but begin a two-day, two-game road trip tonight against the two-time defending Stanley Cup champion Pittsburgh Penguins. The Jets won last Friday, 4-3 at home bvs. Minnesota, giving them four wins in their last five games to reach 4-3-0 on the season. The 6-3-1 Penguins came back after giving up seven goals in Tampa Bay on Saturday to shut down Connor McDavid and the Edmonton Oilers in a 2-1 overtime victory Tuesday night at home Winnipeg: Nikolaj Ehlers has scored all of his team-high six goals in the last five games and is tied with Mark Scheifele (three assists, last two games) and Blake Wheeler (goal, three assists in last three) for the team lead with eight points. Patrik Laine scored his third and fourth goals of the season against Minnesota, both on the power play. The Jets have been off since Friday but is that a good thing as they visit PPG Paints Arena? "I personally don't like having this many days between games," Winnipeg defenseman Tyler Myers told the team's website. "When you have this much time off, you want to keep that pace up. That's a big part of our identity with this team. We like to play fast. I think we've been doing a pretty good job of it. We have to make sure with these practice days to keep that pace up." Pittsburgh: Evgeni Malkin leads the team with 11 points and Phil Kessel is tied with captain Sidney Crosby for second with 10, after his overtime game winner Tuesday. Casey DeSmith was recalled to back up No. 1 G Matt Murray after Antti Niemi was lost on waivers. The 26-year-old has yet to play an NHL contest. However, it will be Murray in goal tonight, who is . "I think there's still a handful of teams in the league that play a heavy game," Pittsburgh coach Mike Sullivan said Wednesday. "I think Winnipeg has a little bit of a hybrid style in that they can skate as well. They're a team that has good size, that has a physical element to their game, but certainly they can skate as well." When the teams last met, a 7-4 Penguins win March 8, Pittsburgh's Evgeni Malkin and Winnipeg's Blake Wheeler fought, a carryover from a hit Malkin laid on Wheeler in an earlier game. It was one of two fights in that game. "(Thursday) is a good test for us," Malkin said. "They might be the most physical team in the league. We need to play like (Tuesday) night." The pick: The series has been one-sided lately, with Pittsburgh having won nine of the last 10 meetings. Connor Hellebuyck has been outstanding, going 4-0-0 with a 2.32 GAA and .928 SP and despite the fact that Steve Mason is 9-5-1 in his career against the Penguins, will get the start against Murray and the Pens. Murray's GAA (3.05 per) and SP (.905) are higher than usual but one can't ignore that the Pens are 6-0-1 in his starts. However, this one will be a tough-sledding, so the 10* play is on the Under. |
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10-25-17 | Wizards v. Lakers UNDER 229 | Top | 99-102 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: There are just four unbeaten teams remaining in the NBA (all 3-0) but the only one playing in the Eastern Conference is the Washington Wizards. The Wizards will visit Staples Center tonight to take on the 1-2 LA Lakers and a win would mean opening 4-0. That's no small deal, as the Wizards last opened 4-0 back in 1978, when the team was named the Bullets. Lonzo Ball has a 'target on his back' due to his big-mouth father and that's particularly true when the Lakers are playing a team with a notable backcourt. Washington: The Wizards are an example of a team which owns a notable backcourt duo, featuring PG John Wall (24.3 & 10.0 APG) and SG Bradley Beal (23.3 & 5.0). Wall's scoring total has fallen in each of the last two games but his assist totals have risen, topping out at 12 - against just two turnovers - in the win over the Nuggets. Beal has at least 20 points in all three games despite a 3-of-12 showing from three-point range,. Adding more fuel to fire ahead of tonight's game, center Marcin Gortat (13.0 & 10.3) trash-talked Ball on Twitter claiming that Wizards PG John Wall "will torture" Ball. LA Lakers: Ball's father is not helping but he is who he is and don't expect a let up. Ball was just 3-of-13 from the floor in Sunday's 119-112 loss to New Orleans but handed out 13 assists and grabbed eight rebounds. He averaging 13.3-9.3-8.7 assists.but is shooting only 34.8 percent from the floor, including 29.4 percent on threes. Ball was one of four starters who failed to score in double figures in the loss to the Pelicans, as backups Jordan Clarkson (24 points) and Kyle Kuzma (20) carried the load. Clarkson had scored 18 and 17 points in LA's first two games. He's shooting 51.1 percent from the floor, including 7-for-14 from three-point distance, leading LA in scoring at 19.7 PPG (Pope debuted against the Pelicans and did score 20). The pick: The Lakers struggle defensively, allowing 119.0 PPG (28th) and Washington has a talented start-five. However, this over/under is too high, so I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
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10-25-17 | Astros v. Dodgers -112 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -112 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Keuchel matched Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 through five innings (it was 1-1 with both starters having allowed a solo HR). However, in the bottom of the sixth, Justin Turner's two-run blast was the difference in LA's Game 1 victory. Kershaw allowed just that solo HR, three overall hits and finished his seven innings with 11 Ks and zero walks (no postseason blues, this year!). The Dodgers are now a perfect 5-0 at Dodger Stadium in the postseason, while the Astros, MLB's best offensive team during the regular season, suddenly can't "get going" on the road. Houston scored just five runs in three consecutive losses to the Yankees in the Bronx during the ALCS and opened the 2017 World Series with three hits and one run! |
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10-25-17 | Spurs -3.5 v. Heat | Top | 117-100 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: The Spurs have opened 3-0, despite missing all-everything forward Kawhi Leonard, who remains out while dealing with right quadriceps tendinopathy. The Spurs have also made do without long-time PG Tony Parker (left quadriceps tendon surgery). San Antonio travels to South Beach Wednesday night to face the Miami Heat, who have opened 2-1. Miami center Hassan Whiteside is expected to miss his third straight game with a bone bruise on his left knee. Ironically, Whiteside went for 26 & 22 in Miami's season-opener at Orlando but the Heat lost. Without Whiteside, the team has won home games over the Pacers and Hawks. San Antonio: LaMarcus Aldridge has stepped up with Leonard out, averaging 24.3 & 9.3. He is also helping out on the defensive end and provided the highlight of Monday's 101-97 win over the Raptors with a chase-down block of Toronto point guard Kyle Lowry as the Spurs held their third consecutive opponent under 100 points to start the season. Dejounte Murray surprisingly beat out Patty Mills in training camp for the right to replace Tony Parker as the team's starting PG and he's been up to the challenge, averaging 13.3-9.7-4.7. Danny Green 14.3) and Rudy Gay (12.3) also averaging in double digits. Miami: Along with Whiteside, PG Dragic (quad bruise) and SG Waiters (ankle) are also hurting for Miami. Dragic plans to be available for Wednesday's game and if Waiters is unable to go, the Heat have plenty of other options at the shooting guard spot. Josh Richardson had a team-high 21 points in Miami's win over Atlanta and is averaging 14.3 PPG, while Wayne Ellington came off the bench and buried 6-of-8 from three-point range against the Hawks, after going 2-of-10 from beyond the arc in the first two games. The pick: Both teams are dealing with injury issues but the absence of Whiteside is a bigger concern in this game. Jordan Mickey started the last two games in place of Whiteside and averaged five points and six rebounds in 14.5 minutes. That worked vs. the Pacers and Hawks but will not vs. the Spurs, who are holding opponents to just 91.0 PPG, despite playing without Leonard (arguably, the league's best defensive player). San Antonio enters this contest having won nine straight in the series, going back to Game 3 of the 2014 NBA Finals. Make the Spurs an 8* play. |
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10-25-17 | Flames v. Blues -154 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Calgary Flames are 5-4- to open the new season but after last night's 3-2 shootout win in Nashville, Calgary has won four straight road games, since opening this season win a 3-0 loss in Edmonton. There is no rest for the weary, as the Flames will be back on the ice again tonight, when they visit the 6-2-1 St. Louis Blues at Scottrade Center, whose 13 points lead the seven-team Central Division. The Blues are coming off an overtime loss at Vegas on Saturday in which they earned a point by scoring late in the third period. Calgary: Matthew Tkachuk and Micheal Ferland scored 2:20 apart midway through the third period last night for the Flames, a game which eventually went to a shootout. Tkachuk scored 13 goals as a rookie last season, ended a four-game drought with last night's tally, giving him three goals in nine games this season. Johnny Gaudreau has collected a goal and four assists during his four-game point streak and has landed on the scoresheet in seven of his last eight contests. Calgary goalie Mike Smith has started every game this season (2.49 GAA & .928 SP) but word is that he will get tonight off. St. Louis: Jaden Schwartz leads the team with 13 points and has been kept off the scoresheet just once this season. He has four goals and two assists during a current four-game point streak, the second such streak this season. Schwartz finally appears to be living up to his offensive potential,in his seventh full season. He owns the tools to be one of the NHL's best all-around forwards but injuries have impeded his progress. However, his 13 points rank third in the NHL and he owns a plus-8 rating in nine games. No. 1 goalie Jake Allen is 4-2-1 with a 2.80 GAA and .912 SP. His backup, Hutton, is 2-0-0 with a 2.00 GAA and .956 SP. The pick: Allen is expected to be in goal tonight (I wouldn't mind Hutton, either), against Calgary's Eddie Lack, who has played just 12 minutes so far, allowing one goal on six shots. Advantage St. Louis, as is the venue (Scottrade Center), where the Blues went 24-12-5 last season and have opened 2-0-0 this year. Make the Blues a 6* |
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10-24-17 | Blackhawks v. Golden Knights OVER 6 | Top | 2-4 | Push | 0 | 18 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vegas Golden Knights have opened 6-1-0 despite losing goaltenders. No. 1 goalie Marc-Andre Fleury was the first to go down with a concussion, Calvin Pickard was traded and now waiver pickup Malcolm Subban has been lost for at least four weeks with a lower-body injury in Saturday’s 3-2 overtime victory over St. Louis. The 5-2-2 Chicago Blackhawks will pay a visit Tuesday night to Las Vegas, after winning 4-2 in Arizona on Saturday to open a quick two-game road trip. Chicago: The Blackhawks exploded for 15 goals in their first two games but have a more modest 17 over their last seven contests. However, Chicago has played well defensively, allowing 2.44 GPG (5th), with netminder Corey Crawford leading the way with five wins a 1.86 GAA and 945 SP. Defenseman Michal Kempny (plus-6 rating) in addition to rookie blueliner Jan Rutta (two goals, five points, plus-5) are off to strong starts. Brandon Saad tops the team with six goals but has been held off the scoresheet in each of the last three games. Former Hart Trophy winner Patrick Kane notched his fourth goal and team-leading 11th point in Chicago's win in Arizona on Saturday. Vegas: The Golden Knights are the first team to win six of their first seven games in their inaugural season!. Three of their victories have come in OT and despite the etam's goaltending issues, Vegas coming is allowing 2.43 GPG (4th). Fleury is making progress and could be back soon but former Columbus second-round pick Oscar Dansk, who stopped 10 of 11 shots in Saturday’s victory, will likely be in net Tuesday backed up by Maxime Lagace. James Neal has not scored in three games but leads the team with six goals overall and fellow forward Oscar Lindberg is the only other player with more than two goals (three). Rookie Alex Tuch, given a chance with injuries to fellow forwards Jonathan Marchessault and Erik Haula, has posted two goals and an assist in three games with the Golden Knights after playing six scoreless games with Minnesota in 2016-17. The pick: I realize that Chicago's scoring has decreased since its fast start but the Blackhawks should be to take advantage of the Golden Knights’ situation in net. That said, Vegas just seems to find ways to win. Therefore, the Over will be an 8* play. |
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10-24-17 | Astros v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 48 h 40 m | Show |
The setup: It's been well-documented that the Dodgers are back in the World Series for the first time since they upended the Oakland A's back in 1988. As for Houston, this marks the franchise's second-ever World Series appearance having lost the 2005 Fall Classic to the Chicago White Sox. The Dodgers won a MLB-best 104 regular-season games, then rolled over the Arizona Diamondbacks (3-0) and Chicago Cubs (4-1) to get here. Houston's 101-win squad knocked out the Boston Red Sox (3-1) but after a taking a 2-0 lead over the New York Yankees, lost all three games in the Bronx. However, a return to Houston sparked the Astro bats and backed by terrific pitching from Veralnder in Game 6 and the Morton/McCullers duo in Game 7, advanced to take on the Dodgers. The pitching matchup: Dallas Keuchel is 2-1 (2.60 ERA) vthis postseason and Clayton Kershaw is 2-0 (3.63 ERA) witth LA winning all three of his starts. Keuchel has struck out 25 in 17 1/3 innings over three starts this October and is 4-1 with a 2.59 ERA in six career postseason appearances (five starts). Keuchel was 14-5 in the regular season (2.90 ERA), with Houston going 16-7 in his starts. Kershaw has served up six HRs in three starts this postseason but his career ledger has improved to 6-7 with a 4.40 ERA in 21 appearances (17 starts). He is 3-2 with a 2.38 ERA in eight career starts against the Astros (Dodgers are 4-4). Kershaw went 18-4 (2.31 ERA) in the regular season, with LA going 23-4 in his starts. The pick: We all know about Houston's terrific lineup but we saw it silenced in three games against the Yankees in the Bronx. Houston will first have to reach Kershaw and then have to deal with an LA bullpen that didn't allow a hit in 29 at-bats in the NLCS against the Cubs plus owns an 0.94 ERA this postseason. Houston's bullpen is a concern but I see no reason to expect anything less than a stellar effort from Keuchel. Pitchers' duel predicted. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-24-17 | Oilers v. Penguins -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Many feel as if Connor McDavid is Sidney Crosby,'s "successor," as the NHL's best and biggest star. McDavid won the Art Ross Trophy (most points) plus is the NHL's reigning MVP (Hart Trophy), although Crosby's Penguins won a second straight Stanley Cup title last year, with Crosby winning a second straight Conn Smyther Trophy, as well. Crosby (30) and McDavid (20) will be the clear headliners Tuesday night when the (2-5-0) Oilers meet the 5-3-1 Penguins at PPG Paints Arena. However, Edmonton comes in having dropped five of its last six since an opening night win, while ranking last in the Western Conference in scoring with an average of 2.00 goals per game. The two-time defending champion Penguins are last in goals allowed (4.33) and are coming off a 7-1 beating at Tampa Bay, prompting coach Mike Sullivan to call his team "flawed." Edmonton: McDavid has three goals and eight points in the first seven games but after opening the season with a hat trick in a 3-0 win over Calgary, he has not scored since and Edmonton managed just two goals or fewer five times in the past six games. After squeezing out a 2-1 overtime win at Chicago on Thursday, the Oilers lost in Philadelphia by an identical score two days later after coughing up the winning goal with just over two minutes to play. "We're cleaning up the defensive part of our game, which is a start for us," head coach Todd McLellan told reporters. "But now we've got to get the offensive part going." Edmonton could get a boost with the potential return of center Leon Draisaitl (concussion) and winger Drake Caggiula (undisclosed injury). Both practiced yesterday but still need medical clearance to play. Pittsburgh: Crosby is tied with Evgeni Malkin for the team scoring lead with 10 points but was held off the scoresheet for the second time in Saturday's 7-1 drubbing by the Lightning. Pittsburgh had won three in a row, all by one goal, before getting thumped in Tampa. The team's defensive woes are real, as that loss marked the fifth straight time and seventh in nine games Pittsburgh has allowed at least three goals. The Penguins have seen enough of back-up goalie Antti Niemi nd he was placed on waivers after he fell to 0-3-0 with a 7.49 goals-against average. The Penguins could dress freshly recalled rookie Casey DeSmith as the backup to goaltender Matt Murray. The pick: Each team comes in with issues but a McDavid/Crosby showdown somewhat overshadows it all. That duo could "put on a show," or we could have a dud! My bet says Pittsburgh rises to the challenge, as a team. Make the Penguins a 10* play. |
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10-24-17 | Nets v. Magic -4 | Top | 121-125 | Push | 0 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The Brooklyn Nets are 2-1 to open the new season, despite allowing 121.7 PPG, which ranks 29th, ahead of only the Suns. The Nets are pushing the pace, driving and crashing the lane plus firing away from three-point range. The result has been a scoring average of 124.7 PPG, which is tops in the NBA. The Nets placed six players in double digits in Friday's 126-121 home win over the Magic and tonight will visit Amway Arena to take on the Magic, who have also opened a surprising 2-1. Brooklyn: The Nets were just 20-62 last year and lost PG Jeremy Lin (for the season) in the team's opener of this new season. D'Angelo Russell has taken on the role of playmaker with Lin sidelined and he handed out a season-high 10 assists in Sunday's 116-104 win to boost his averages to 21 .0 PPG and 7.0 APG. Allen Crabbe had a team-high 20 points on 7-of-12 shooting on Sunday. However, Crabbe is still on a minute restriction due to a preseason ankle injury. Brooklyn is second in the NBA going into Monday's action in free-throw attempts (33.7) while shooting 37.6 percent from three-point range but one thing the Nets could do better is cutting down on fouls. Opponents are averaging 27.7 foul shots per game against the Nets after the Hawks took 36 free throws Sunday. Orlando: The Magic are coming off one of the most impressive victories of this young season, a 114-93 triumph at Cleveland on Saturday. Center Nikola Vucevic scored a career-high 41 points on 17-of-22 shooting in the loss at Brooklyn on Friday, then followed by scoring 23 points on 11-of-16 from the floor at Cleveland. Vucevic is averaging 27.7 points and 10.7 rebounds on 68 percent shooting from the floor (34 of 50), including 50 percent from three-point range (7 of 14). His efforts on the interior opened up space on the perimeter and the Magic were able to knock down 17 three-pointers at Cleveland. "We’re starting to play offensively consistently the right way in terms of not settling and understanding that we want to attack early and the ball is really hopping," coach Frank Vogel told reporters. "We’re scoring the ball well and shooting the ball well as a result of the ball movement and the quality of our shots." The pick: At 2-1, the Nets are above .500 for the first time since they were 4-3 on Nov. 12, 2014 and the Nets are now in a position to start 3-1 for the first time since the 2007-08 season. Is that asking too much? As for the Magic, who were just 29-53 last year, they are seeking their first 3-1 start since the lockout-shortened 2011-12 season. "Again, it's too early to make any big judgments about this (team), but it's an early positive sign for us," Orlando coach Frank Vogel said. "With how we're playing offensively and moving the basketball, we're facilitating everything and everybody feels good about our chemistry. Everybody is playing with the basketball the right way, thinking extra pass and playing for each other. That's how chemistry is established." The home team has won each of the last five meetings in the series and revenge (from Friday) works here for the Magic. Make Orlando an 8* play. |
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10-23-17 | Kings v. Suns -1.5 | Top | 115-117 | Win | 100 | 26 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: It's one thing to open 0-3 and another to have lost all three games by an average margin of 30.7 PPG (two losses by 40-plus points) while allowing league-worsts of 128.7 PPG on 51.5 percent shooting (including 50.0 percent on threes). Head coach Earl Watson began his second full year on the job this season after being promoted from assistant coach to interim coach when Jeff Hornacek was fired on Feb. 1, 2016. Watson signed a three-year contract as head coach on April 19, 2016 but the team announced Sunday night that associate head coach Jay Triano is taking over for Watson as interim head coach. The Suns went 33-85 on his watch. Triano's first game will be against the Sacramento Kings on Monday night, who visit Phoenix after opening 1-2. Sacramento: The Kings are finishing up a three-game, four-day road trip that has seen them win 93-88 at Dallas but then lose 96-79 at Denver on Saturday. Zach Randolph was the lone Sacramento starter to score in double figures and he finished with only 11 points as the team's starting-five combined to shoot 10-for-38 from the floor. Rookie De'Aaron Fox made a splash off the bench with 18 points on 8-of-13 shooting to go along with five rebounds in a team-high 29 minutes. Fox currently leads the etam in scoring (13.7 PPG) and assists (5.3 per), while adding 5.0 RPG. Forward Skal Labissiere chipped in 13 points but there were very few other contributions for a team the Suns may just be able to beat. Phoenix: Guard Eric Bledsoe followed up a 28-point performance in a two-point loss to the Los Angeles Lakers on Friday with a four-point, four-turnover effort against the Clippers on Sunday. Bledsoe summed up his frustration in a tweet before Sunday's announcement of the coaching change surfaced. "I Dont wanna be here," it read. The Suns are the second-youngest team in the league in terms of average age, with four players still 20 and another 19. Watson tinkered with the lineup this season, putting power forward Marquese Chriss on the bench and starting two small forwards, TJ Warren and rookie Josh Jackson. Among many other things, that hasn't worked. Triano spent parts of four seasons (2008-11) as head coach of the Toronto Raptors. He is in his second season with the Suns after spending four years as an assistant with the Portland Trail Blazers, one when Watson was a player there. The pick: It would be impossible for the Suns to play any worse but as noted, the Kings may just be exactly "what the doctor ordered." The NBA's worst defensive team (Phoenix) will welcome a team averaging just 90.7 PPG (second-lowest scoring average in the NBA) and playing its third road game in four nights. Take the points and make the Suns a 10* play. |
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10-23-17 | Redskins v. Eagles -4 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Are the Eagles the NFC's best team? They just may be and a win tonight over NFC East rival Washington would only add more 'fuel' to that claim. Philadelphia is 5-1, losing only at KC, while owning wins over the Redskins, Giants, Chargers, Cardinals and Panthers. The Eagles beat the Redskins back in Week 1, 30-17 at Washington and now get a return match with them here at Lincoln Financial Field on “Monday Night Football.” Washington comes in 3-2 and a victory would leave the Redskins just a half-game out of first place in the NFC East but a loss would mean both Washington and Dallas would be 3-3, while Philadelphia would own a commanding 6-1 record, 2 1/2 games clear of its division rivals. Washington: QB Kirk Cousins is having another fine season completing 66.5% for 1,334 yards with nine TDs and just two INTs (106.4 QB rating). However, his worst game of the 2017 season came in Washington's Week 1 home loss to the Eagles, when Cousins completed only 57.5% with one TD and one INT, earning a QB rating of only 72.9. The running game does not have a player with more than 175 yards on the season but still ranks 10th, averaging 122.8 YPG on the ground. RB Rob Kelley is dealing with an ankle injury, which could mean the bulk of playing time will go to rookie Samaje Perine and Chris Thompson, who already has recorded two 100-yard receiving performances and made four catches for 52 yards and a touchdown in Week 1. Cousins does come in off a strong three-game stretch and now leads the NFC with that 106.4 QB rating. WRs Terrelle Pryor and Jamison Crowder continue to struggle but the TE tandem of Jordan Reed and Vernon Davis has combined for 29 catches. Defensively, the Eagles rank 12th in total yards (316.0 per) but not as high in points allowed (22.6 PPG ranks 19th). Philadelphia: Wentz is off to a strong start in his sophomore season, with 13 TDs and just three INTs (99.6 QB rating). RB LeGarrette Blount (390 yards on 5.6 YPC) is starting to make his presence felt while a a very good OL helps the running game check in at 132.5 YPG (4th-best in the NFL). TE Ertz has 34 catches and WR Agholor has 20, with both owning four TD grabs apiece. Philly's rush D will surely test Washington's running game, as the Eagles are allowing an NFL-low 65.7 YPG on the ground. The pick: Recent series history favors Washington, as Jay Gruden had beaten Philly five in a row prior to losing in Week 1 (Washington self-destructed with four giveaways). Also, the Redskins come in on an 8-3 ATS run as a road dog and that includes that fluke non-cover at KC in Week 4's MNF game! However, I believe the Eagles are "for real." They have won four straight (covered the last three) since losing at KC, while averaging 28.8 PPG, as Philadelphia has now scored at least 20 points in 10 straight games, the league's longest active streak. Wentz is proving to be a cool, calm and collected leader. Make the Eagles a 10* play. |
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10-23-17 | Kings v. Maple Leafs -149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Kings visit Toronto at 6-0-1, meaning they have yet to lose a game in regulation this season (only blemish so far is an overtime loss to Calgary on Oct. 11). Meanwhile, the Maple Leafs will welcome the Kings to the Air Canada Centre, as the team kicks off a three-game homestand after having its three-game winning streak snapped with Saturday's 6-3 loss at Ottawa. Los Angeles: Captain Anze Kopitar capped a three-point performance by scoring his second goal of the game with 2:14 remaining in the third period as Los Angeles matched the club record for the longest point streak to start a season, which was set when it began 1995-96 with a 4-0-3 mark. Kopitar has recorded four multi-point performances in 2017-18, including a pair of three-point efforts. Right winger Dustin Brown had an empty-net goal and three assists on Saturday. Kopitar and Brown have taken advantage of the more upbeat tempo encouraged by new coach John Stevens. Both players have a team-leading 11 points and each is plus-11, tied for first in the NHL. Brooks Laich made his debut for Los Angeles on Saturday without scoring, having just signed a one-year contract worth $650,000 on Thursday. Jake Muzzin is riding a six-game point streak after notching three against Columbus. Toronto: Auston Matthews (seven goals & five assists) and William Nylander (three goals & six assists) each recorded a goal and an assist in Saturday's loss. Matthews has at least one point in all but one of his eight contests, registering three two-point efforts over his last four. Roman Polak is back in the fold, as the veteran defenseman agreed to terms on a one-year, $1.1 million contract on Sunday. The Maple Leafs were picked as Stanley Cup favorites this past week by two betting sites but promptly lost 6-3 on Saturday at Ottawa. The pick: "They smacked us around," Maple Leafs head coach Mike Babcock said after practice Sunday. "But I also think you need lessons in your life. When everything goes good all the time, that's not good for you. You need a good tightening every once in a while. I thought we got it (Saturday) night." With LA coming to town 6-0-1, Toronto will have something to prove. Toronto will also likely remember that last Nov. 8, the Kings won right here in Toronto, 7-0! Make Toronto an 8* play. |
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10-22-17 | Falcons +3.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-23 | Loss | -115 | 128 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a Super Bowl rematch at Gillette Stadium on Sunday night (NBC), as the Atlanta Falcons take on the New England Patriots. The Falcons led 21-3 at the half of last year's Super Bowl and 28-3 in the third quarter of last season's game. However, the Patriots engineered the greatest comeback in the history of the NFL's 'ultimate game,' leaving the Falcons and their fans stunned with a 34-28 OT final which produced the fifth championship of the Bill Belichick/Tom Brady era (or should that read, the Brady/Belichick era?). The 2017 versions of the teams meet Sunday night and each team has reason to "not be confident!' Atlanta opened 3-0 but back-to-back losses to the Bills and Dolphins leaves them just 3-2 (blew a 17-0 halftime lead at home to Miami last Sunday). The Pats are 4-2 but easily could have lost at home to Houston and last Sunday, were the beneficiaries of a highly-controversial fumble/touchback call in their 24-17 win at the Jets. Atlanta: Matt Ryan was deservedly the MVP of the 2016 season, throwing for 4,944 yards with 38 TDs and seven INTs for a 117.1 QB rating. However, after five games, he's got a 6-6 ratio and a QB rating of just 87.3. The RB tandem of Freeman (353 YR on 4.5 YPC with 5 TDs plus 11 catches) and Coleman (213 YR on 5.6 YPC with 1 TD plus 14 catches) is still potent but the Falcons' offense has looked 'off!' Atlanta led the NFL in scoring (33.8 PPG) in 2016, while finishing second in total yards (415.8 YPG). Here in 2017, those numbers are 24.2 PPG (12th) on 378.4 YPG (5th). The defense has allowed about 60 YPG more than in 2016 and 25,4 PPG, after allowing 21.8 PPG last season. New England. What to make of the Pats in 2017? Brady is still awesome, with 13 TDs and just two INTs (106.9 QB rating), leading an offense averaging 28.7 PPG (5th-best). The Pats lead the nFL in passing (309.8 YPG), which is the reason the team also owns the most YPG (412.0 per), in the entire NFL. However, no team has allowed more overall yards (440.7 per) or passing yards (324,8 per) than New England. All six opposing QBs have thrown for 300-plus yards against New England (never happened before), as the Pats' pass D has allowed 14 TDs and has just five INTs (104.4 opposing QB rating is third-worst in the NFL). The pick: No way Atlanta can be brimming with confidence after it incredibly blew a 17-0 halftime lead in its 20-17 home upset loss to previously-struggling Miami last Sunday. Add to that, the fact that the Pats lost their most recent home game (33-30 in Week in Week 4 to that Panthers) and that New England hasn’t dropped consecutive home games since 2008. The poinstspread is surely not much of an impost but this New England team is just "not right" here in 2017. The Falcons own a much-better balanced offense and neither team's defense seems capable of stopping the opposing team's offense. I WANT the points. Make Atlanta an 8* play. |
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10-22-17 | Canucks v. Red Wings OVER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Red Wings missed last year's playoffs, ending 25 consecutive postseason appearances. Detroit began the current season 4-1-0 but suffered losses early this week at home to the Lightning and then at Toronto, before coughing up a late lead in a 5-4 overtime defeat against Washington at home Friday. Detroit (now 4-3-1) hosts Vancouver tonight, which comes in 3-3-1 after rallying to knock off Buffalo 4-2 on Friday to improve to 2-1-0 on its current five-game road trip. When the Wings won their most recent Stanley Cup (in 2007-08), it was Henrik Zetterberg leading the way, winning the Conn Smythe Trophy. When the Canucks reached Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals in 2011, it was was Sedin twins, Henrik and Daniel, leading the way, finishing 1-2 on the team in playoff scoring, combining for 12 goals and 30 assists. The glory days are long gone for Detroit and Vancouver but the link to that bygone era for both teams is that their best players then, remain their best players now. Vancouver: Henrik Sedin is Vancouver's captain and son a line with his brother. Former first-round pick Jake Virtanen was placed on a line with the Sedins against Buffalo and he responded with his first point of the season on an assist. However, the Sedins, who have combined for more than 2,000 career points, each have only three in the early going. However, forward Derek Dorsett, who played only 14 games when his season was ended by December neck surgery, scored twice Friday and already has four goals this season. However, the Vancouver power play has struggled (4-for-35 or 11.4 percent). Detroit: The Red Wings, in need of salary cap space after agreeing to terms Friday on a one-year contract with holdout forward Andreas Athanasiou, made a pair of trades on Saturday. Center Riley Sheahan ($2.075 million) was traded to the Pittsburgh Penguins for forward Scott Wilson ($575,000), a move that cleared enough room to fit in Athanasiou's $1.387 million deal. The tem also made a trade surround with the Rangers for players in the AHL. Tomas Tatar has three goals in the last two agmes and fellow forward Darren Helm scored for the first time this season in Friday’s setback. Defenseman Mike Green tops the team with 10 points (nine on assists) while Zetterberg and fellow forward Dylan Larkin are next with nine apiece. Anthony Mantha has seven points but the right wing has been scoreless with a minus-5 rating over the last three games The pick: This marks the fourth game of Vancouver's five-game road trip, while Detroit may be a little leg-weary, playing its fourth game in seven nights. Detroit has seen six of its eight games go "over" so far, and that's the paly here. Make the Over a 10* |
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10-22-17 | Bengals v. Steelers OVER 41 | Top | 14-29 | Win | 100 | 124 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Two bitter AFC North rivals square off Sunday at Pittsburgh's Heinz Field. The Cincinnati Bengals opened the 2017 season losing two games at home (scored only nine points) but a Week 3 OT loss at Green Bay (just 27-24), helped turn their season around. The Bengals have won at Cincy 31-7 and then back home against Buffalo (20-16) since, so they'll have a chance to get back to .500 with a win here against the hated-Steelers. Pittsburgh will be looking to maintain its place atop the AFC North (curently 4-20, after handing KC its first loos of the 2017 season last Sunday on the road. Pittsburgh won 19-13 at Arrowhead, holding the Chiefs to just 251 yards of total offense. Meanwhile, RB Le’Veon Bell had his best game of 2017, rushing for 179 yards and a TD, while Antonio Brown led Pittsburgh with 8 catches for 155 yards and the team’s lone receiving TD (now there's a shocker!). As for Big Ben, he bounced back from a four-INT game in Week 5, by completing 17 of 25 for 252 yards (one TD and one INT). Cincinnati: The Bengals started slowly offensively in 2017 (see above) and remain low in most offensive categories. Cincy ranks 30th with 16.8 YPG on 311.0 YPG, which ranks 24th. QB Andy Dalton had a 'nightmare' of a first game (four INTs and a lost fumble) but competed 80.7% against Creen Bay and Cleveland (6 TDs / 0 INTs), before throwing two INTs in the win over Buffalo in Week 5. He will eventually need help from a running game averaging just 84.0 YPG (28th). Keeping Cincy 'alive' is a defense which ranks second in scoring (16.2 PPG) and total yards (262.8 YPG). Pittsburgh: No one really bought Big Ben's "Maybe I don't have it anymore" lament and looking around the AFC, isn't Pittsburgh as likely as any team to be playing in a second straight AFC championship game. Big Ben's a proven winner and in Bell and Brown, the Steelers may just have the best RB and WR in all of the NFL (name a better set of teammates!). Pittsburgh's offense will be just fine by year's end and as always, the defense is near the top in most categories. How about 4th in points allowed (17.0 PPG) and 3rd in yards allowed (272.0 YPG) The pick: Big Ben is in his 14th year (hard to believe) and while it's been slow-sledding, expect him to be just fine, working with Bell and Brown. As for the Bengals, the team's 'ugly' 0-2 start is behind them and a Week 6 bye may have been "just what the doctor ordered." Two defenses usually spell 'under' but "not so fast!" You have two QBs more than capable of putting up points and in Brown and A.J. Green, two of the NFL's very best WRs, as well. Also, there is talk that the bye week has allowed WR John Ross (Cincy's No. 1 pick in the 2017 draft out of Washington) enough time to get over a knee injury that bothered him all season. Surprise, this game is headed over. Make it an 8* play. |
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10-22-17 | Hawks +2 v. Nets | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -105 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: How many realize that behind the San Antonio Spurs, the second-longest streak of consecutive NBA playoff appearances belongs to the Atlanta Hawks. Yes, the Hawks have been to 10 staright postseason but that run will be tested in 2017-18. Atlanta got no favors from teh schedule-makers, as the Hawks must begin the seaon with five straight games on the road. The Hawks looked impressive in a 117-111 win at the Dallas Mavericks on Wednesday but shot 37.9 percent in a 109-91 loss at Charlotte on Friday, squandering a 20-point first-half lead. The Hawks will be in Brooklyn tonight, to take on the 1-1 Nets. Brooklyn opened with a 140-131 loss at Indiana on Wednesday and then, playing its their first game since learning that PG Jeremy Lin will miss the rest of the regular season with a ruptured patella tendon on Friday, beat the Orlando Magic 126-121 in the team's home opener. |
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10-22-17 | Panthers -3 v. Bears | Top | 3-17 | Loss | -120 | 120 h 13 m | Show |
Carolina: Newton was Carolina's lone offensive producer against the Eagles, as ran for 71 yards (on 11 attempts), while the rest of the team had just nine rushing yards on 14 carries. That won't work! Newton was forced to throw 52 times, completing 28 for 239 yards with one TD, three INTs and a QB rating of 48.5. That was quite a drop off from him completing 77.4 percent for 671 yards with six TDs and just one INT in back-to-back road wins at New England and Detroit. The good news so far is that Carolina's D ranks 4th in total yards (280.0 YPG) and 9th in points allowed, at 20.3 PPG (down from 25.1 PPG in 2016). Chicago: Mitch Trubisky will make his third career start in this one. He earned his first victory last week but has passed for only 241 yards in his two starts, with two TDs and an interception (owns a 73.3 QB rating). He has averaged only 20.5 passes per game, as the Bears continue to rely heavily on the ground game, which is No. 1 in the NFC and No. 3 in the NFL at 136.0 YPG. RB Jordan Howard has amassed 495 rushing yards (167 yards in Week 6) and four TDs through his his first six games. The Bears are averaging just 17.5 PPG (28th) and that won't get the job done with the defense allowing 24.7 PPG (25th). The pick: The Bears come into this contest 0-7 SU and just 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU win (beat the Ravens in Week 6), while the Panthers are 3-0 SU & ATS on the road in 2017 (one of five NFL teams that are unbeaten away from home in 2017). Cam Newton vs. Mitch Trubisky seems like a total mismatch plus Chicago's rushing attack will get a severe test against Carolina's rush D, which comes in allowing only 83.3 YPG to rank 5th-best in the NFL. Carolina has yet to allow a 100-yard rusher this season. Make the Panthers a 10* play. |
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10-22-17 | Jets +3.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 28-31 | Win | 100 | 120 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Long-time AFC East rivals the NY Jets and Miami Dolphins meet Sunday at Hard Rock Stadium. The 3-3 Jets are coming off a controversial 24-17 home loss to the Pats in Week 6, while the Dolphins improved to 3-2 with their best effort of the season, a 20-17 comeback win on the road over the defending NFC champion Atlanta Falcons. The Jets squandered a 14-0 lead but were hurt when an apparent TD was ruled a fumble and a touchback on a still-controversial call, eventually losing 24-17. The Dolphins fell behind the Falcons 17-0 at halftime last Sunday but somehow came back to win 2017. NY Jets: "I think the whole stadium felt (the call) was wrong," Jets safety Jamal Adams told the media in New York. However, the Jets know they have to move on. Journeyman QB Josh McCown completed 75.0% of his throws in the Jets' three-game winning streak and then passed for 354 yards in the loss to the Pats. McCown is going to need more help from New York's "no-name" RBs, as New York ranks a modest 18th in averaging 105.2 YPG on the ground. Overall, the Jets average just 318.7 YPG (21st) and ranks 26th in scoring at 18.2 PPG. The Jets' D is allowing 358.0 YPG (24th) but only 21.7 PPG, which ranks 12th Miami: The Dolphins took the field for the second half of last week's game in Atlanta, down 17-0. It continued a sad trend for Miami, as the team's offense had scored just one non-garbage-time TD over the past 15 quarters. However, Miami scored two TDs in the third quarter, before Cody Parkey added two FGs in the fourth quarter to get Miami the "W." Miami’s offense had been dismal until its third-quarter revival against the Falcons, although it was good news that RB Jay Ajayi broke out of a slump with 130 rushing yards last week. QB Jay Cutler's "un-retirement" has not gone well, as he has just five TD passes and four INTs with Miami ranking 32nd in passing offense with 155.4 YPG (Cutler's QB rating is a poor 75.2). Defensively, the Dolphins have been very good, allowing just 16.8 PPG to rank 3rd. The pick: It's just Week 7 but this is the second meeting of 2017 for these division rivals. The teams met at MetLife Stadium in Week 3, when the Dolphins were a six-point road favorite and the Jets won handily, 20-6. Both teams have greatly surpassed preseason expectations, with both defenses showing well. However, despite Miami's remarkable second-half comeback last week, they come into this game ranked last in scoring (12.2 PPG), last in total offense (242.8 YPG), last in passing yards (155.4 YPG) and 27th in rushing offense (87.4 YPG). How does one lay points with this team? In fact, Miami is a money-burning 4-12 ATS the last 16 times when favored, going back to the latter part of 2014. Make the Jets an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | Blues -144 v. Golden Knights | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -144 | 16 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vegas Golden Knights are off to the best-ever start by an NHL expansion team (5-1-0) and will welcome the 6-2-0 St. Louis Blues to town on Saturday night, with hopes of continuing their winning ways. Schedule-makers have been kind to the expansion Golden Knights, as this contest is Game 5 of a seven-game homestand, early in the team's inaugural season. Vegas moved to 3-1-0 on the homestand with a 5-4 overtime victory against Buffalo on Tuesday. The Blues represent a formidable opponent for the Golden Knights, as they made it six victories in eight contests this season by beginning their road trip with a 4-3 victory in Colorado on Thursday. St. Louis: Paul Stastny recorded a goal for his 600th career point and added an assis in the win. Blues forward Jaden Schwartz is off to a superb start with a team-high six goals, including four in the last two games (both victories). Vladimir Tarasenko (five goals) has a four-game point streak (two goals, three assists) while defenseman Alex Pietrangelo recorded two assists Thursday, giving him 10 points, second on the team to Schwartz's 12. Vegas:The Golden Knights have opened 5-1, despite the fact No. 1 goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury went on injured reserve (concussion), after leading the team to three wins in four games. However, backup goaltender Malcolm Subban, brother of Nashville defenseman P.K. Subban, has performed admirably with two wins in two games (2.42 GAA and .911 SP). Rookie right wing Alex Tuch has scored in his first two career games, taking advantage of the opportunity presented to him when Erik Haula and Jonathan Marchessault (lower-body injuries) were placed on IR. Oscar Lindberg (three goals) has scored in the last two contests while David Perron (two goals) provided the overtime winner Tuesday and is second on the team with five points. The pick: The 'Vegas story' has been a good one, as the city recovers from that horrific shooting. However, the team has played "over its head" and will eventually, miss the presence of Fleury. Case in point is the fact that Vegas is just 2-for-26 on the power play this season, something one wouldn't expect from a team which has won five of six games.On even closer inspection, the Golden Knights have defeated just one team with a winning record, the Dallas Stars (4-3-0). Three of the wins have come against the Arizona Coyotes (twice) and Buffalo Sabres, who have combined for just one victory between them! Make St. Louis an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros took control of the AL West by mid-April, spending almost the entire regular season in first place. However, after a deflating 5-0 Game 5 loss to the Yankees in the ALCS, the Astros found themselves 'behind the eight-ball' for tehe first time in almost, forever. Fortunately, they had made a deal for Verlander "just for this situation!" The former AL Cy Young and MVP winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA, 0.65 WHIP and a 43-5 KW ratio in five regular season starts for Houston and entered last night's game 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA, 0.96 WHIP and a 16-5 KW ratio in three playoff appearances (two starts). Verlander came through with seven scoreless innings last night and the 'silent' Houston bats provided seven runs on eight hits! It's now a Game 7 for the right to meet the Dodgers in the 2017 World Series. The pitching matchup: C.C. Sabathia (1-0 & 2.30 ERA) gets the ball for New York, while Houston has decided to give Charlie Morton (0-1 & 10.13 ERA) this Game 7 start. Sabathia was15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run in which he had gone just 32-39. No one saw his 2017 season coming, as he finished the regular season 14-5 (3.69 ERA). The Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked fourth-best among all starters. He's come up big this postseason as well and enters this game 10-0 with a 1.69 ERA in 13 turns following a New York loss in 2017 (regular and postseason!). Morton is in his 10th big-league season, but authored a "career year," going 14-7 with a 3.62 ERA, The Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). He started the clinching game of the ALDS at Boston but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. He surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4. However, in Game 3 of the ALCS against Sabathia,lasted only 3 2/3 innings while allowing seven runs on six hits, including a three-run HR by Todd Frazier. Morton is getting the nod over Lance McCullers Jr. and will be making only his fourth career postseason start. The pick: Which team holds the advantage? Houston has won 16 of its last 18 contests at Minute Maid Park dating back to the regular season but on the other hand, C.C over Morton gives New York the edge. I sure can't trust Morton but the Astros are the better team and their Game 6 performance offensively, was a welcome relief for all Houston fans. Lots of pressure here for all involved and it's my bet that the team's respective offenses will determine the winner here, not the starting pitchers. Make the Over a 10* play.
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10-21-17 | USC +3.5 v. Notre Dame | Top | 14-49 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The USC/Notre Dame rivalry is one of CFB's classics. USC comes in 6-1, after escaping with a 28-27 win last Saturday over Utah. The Trojans trailed 21-7 at the half and walked away with the win only when Utah failed on a late two-point conversion try. Notre Dame upped its record to 5-1 after winning at North Carolina 33-10 on Oct. 7th, without starting QB Brandon Winbush. The Fighting Irish led 16-7 at the half and kept the pressure on with a 487-265 yardage advantage in the 23-point win, despite QB Ian Book throwing for only 146 yards with one TD and two INTs. USC: The Trojans rolled up 532 total yards against Utah but still barely eked out a win. Sam Darnold was a Heisman-favorite entering thi season but after throwing 31 TDs and just nine INTs in 2016, he's already thrown nine INTs in 2017, along with 15 TDs. RB Ronald Jones II (640 YR / 6.3 YPC / 8 TDs) is a quality back and leads a running game averaging 180.6 YPG (54th). USC's defense is allowing 385.4 YPG (67th) and 23.7 PPG (52nd). Notre Dame: The Irish really need a healhty Winbush here (Irish had a bye last weekend), as Book is not ready for primetime. That said, Notre Dame's rushing game is first-class, led by Josh Adams, who has run for 776 yards (9.0 YPC) and five TDs. The Irish are averaging 308.0 YPG on the ground, which ranks 5th. The defense could be up to the task of slowing USC's Jones, as it has allowed just one rushing TD and a modest 16.8 PPG on the season (15th). Notre Dame has already exceeded its 2016 win total, when the Irish finished 4-8, after opening the season ranked 10th in the AP's preseason poll. The pick: The rivalry between No. 11 USC and No. 13 Notre Dame stands as one of the most hallowed in college football, with a lineage that transcends individual season records."I think it's the best inter-sectional rivalry in college sports," USC head coach Clay Helton said. With a combined 22 national championships and 14 Heisman Trophy winners between the programs, the USC-Notre Dame rivalry has the hardware to back up Helton's claim. Both teams enter Saturday's matchup at Notre Dame Stadium ranked in the top-25 for the first time since 2009, and the 89th installment of the series will likely see the winner move into the top-10, as well as keep its CFP hopes alive. Notre Dame failed at home in its biggest test so far in 2017 (a 20-19 loos to Georgia) and I wouldn't want to be laying any points at all here, vs. the Trojans. USC was expected to be the class of the Pac-12 at the beginning of the season and could just re-establish themselves as the conference's best again, with a non-conference win at South Bend. Make USC a 10* play. |
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10-21-17 | 76ers v. Raptors UNDER 215.5 | Top | 94-128 | Loss | -105 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The 76ers have preached that fans should "trust the process' but the team needs to deliver "something" this season. Philly lost the team's season-opener 120-115 at Washington on Wednmesdya and last night, faltered down the stretch in a 102-92 home loss to the Boston Celtics, falling to 0-2 on the young season. The 76ers will visit Toronto on Saturday, in search of their first win. Toronto's All-Star DeMar DeRozan had a poor season-debut for the Raptors (11 points on 2-of-9 shooting) but center Jonas Valanciunas had 23 points and 15 rebounds in Thursday's 117-100 win over Chicago. |
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10-21-17 | Oregon +7 v. UCLA | Top | 14-31 | Loss | -115 | 124 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oregon Ducks dropped to 4-3 (1-3 Pac-12) on the season after falling to the Stanford Cardinal 49-7, this past Saturday. The Ducks will visit the Rose Bowl this Saturday to face the UCLA Bruins, who dropped to 3-3 (1-2 Pac-12) on the season after falling to the Arizona Wildcats 47-30, last weekend. Oregon won 10-plus games every season from 2008 through 2014 but after a 9-4 season in 2016, fell to 4-8 last year. UCLA was also 4-8 in 2016, after Jim Mora had led the Bruins to four straight bowl games and a 37-16 overall record in his first four seasons in LA. Oregon: The Ducks' offense has really struggled since losing QB Justin Herbert to a collarbone injury Sep. 30 against Cal. Herbert was completing 68.3 percent of his passes with nine TDs and just two INTs but in the two games he's missed since, Oregon QBs have thrown for just 178 yards with one TD and four INTs, with the Ducks scoring 10 and seven points, respectively, in back-to-back losses. The running game is excellent though, averaging 244.6 YPG (18th), led by Freeman (797 YR with 10 TDs) and Benoit (361 YR with 8 TDs). Oregon's defense has allowed 30.3 PPG (89th) but in term of yards allowed, the Ducks are better than that, ranking 43rd in allowing 362.0 YPG. UCLA: The Bruins began the year un-ranked but after opening 2-0, snuck into the AP poll at No. 25. However, UCLA lost back-to-back games from there at Memphis (allowed 48 poinst) and at Stanford (allowed 58 points). After beating Colorado 27-23 at home, UCLA's defense again got 'spanked,' allowing 47 points in a loss at Arizona. QB Josh Rosen is a "big-time" talent and UCLA ranks second in the nation averaging 399.7 YPG through the air. Rosen is completing 64.2% with 17 TDs and eight INTs, despite a non-existent running game which averaged 127.5 YPG (104th). However, with UCLA's defense, Rosen finds himself typically playing "catch up." The Bruins are allowing 40.5 PPG (125th) on 523.0 YPG (127th). The pick: Led by Freeman (plus Benoit's no slouch), the Oregon running game should 'run wild' against a UCLA rush D allowing 313.0 YPG (129th), as well as 6.6 YPC! This is hardly a matchup that bodes well for UCLA being able to beat Oregon for the first time since 2007. UCLA's next win will be the 600th in program history but do not expect that win to come here, as Oregon wins its seventh in a row over the Bruins. Make the Ducks an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | Maryland v. Wisconsin -24 | Top | 13-38 | Win | 100 | 120 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Maryland Terrapins (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) travel to Camp Randall Stadium in Madison to take on the Wisconsin Badgers (6-0, 3-0 Big Ten), who are currently ranked No. 5. Terps shocked Texas in their season-opener, winning 51-41 as an 18-point road dog but come in having lost three of their last four. Wisconsin has taken control of the Big Ten's West Division at 3-0, with no other team checking in any better than 2-2. Maryland: The Terps have fallen off quite dramatically since their opening week win over Texas and have been outscored 99-35 in their last two games. QB Max Bortenschlager is completing just 50.9 percent of his passes (only 106 attempts) for 561 yards with six TDs and two INTs. Maryland ranks just 117th in yards passing, averaging just 161.0 YPG. Maryland's ground game is averaging 178.1 YPG (57th), led by and Ty Johnson (488 YR / 7.2 YPC). Maryland averages 31.7 PPG but that doesn't help much with the defense allowing 36.5 PPG (115th). Wisconsin: The Badgers look to move to 7-0 and keep themselves in the thick of the college football playoff conversation. QB Alex Hornibrook is completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 1,210 yards with 11 TDs and six INTs. Wisconsin averages 36.3 PPG (27th) and a big reason is a ground game averaging 264.5 YPG (13th). Freshman Jonathan Taylor is Wisconsin's "next great RB," rushing for 986 yards on 7.8 YPC with 10 TDs. He had with 219 yards last week (his third 200-plus game of 2017) and will surely match the NCAA record for fewest games needed to reach 1,000 yards (seven). Nothing new on the defensive side of the ball for Wisconsin here in 2017, as the Badgers are allowing only 13.3 YPG (5th) on 265.0 YPG (6th). The pick: Wisconsin is just 1-3 ATS at home in 2017 but the Badgers have the rush D (78.8 YPG ranks 4th) to contain Maryland's running game, which will put way too much pressure on QB Bortenschlage, who really isn't ready for primetime. The Terps have allowed 99 combined points in back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Northwestern and are very likely to allow 40-plus points here.The Badgers are outscoring opponents 119-24 in the second half and pull away here for the cover. Make Wisconsin an 8* play. |
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10-21-17 | Oklahoma State v. Texas OVER 64.5 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -110 | 46 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: The (5-1, 2-1 Big 12) Oklahoma State Cowboys are ranked 10th in the latest AP poll and travel to Austin to play the (3-3, 2-1 Big 12) Texas Longhorns at Royal Texas Memorial Stadium. OSU brings the nation's No. 1 offense (617.2 YPG) and its No. 2 scoring offense (48.8 PPG) into the contest, after gaining a school-record 747 yards in a 59-16 rout of Baylor last Saturday. The Longhorns are off their annual Red River Showdown against Oklahoma, a game in which Texas rebound from a 23-10 deficit to take a 24-23 4th-quarter lead, only to lose 29-24. Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph is completing 66.7 percent with 19 TDs and just four INTs, with OSU leading the nation with 411.2 YPG through the air. Considering how "pass-happy" the offense is, it's impressive that the Cowboys are also averaging 199.5 YPG on the ground (on 5.4 YPC), led by RB Hill's 633 yards on 6.0 YPC. With the kind of numbers OSU's offense puts up, the defense has to be good but not great. That's a fair description for an OSU stop-unit that's allowing 24.3 PPG (56th). Texas: Steve Buechele opened the season as Texas' starting QB but it was freshman Sam Ehlinger who led the comeback against Texas. He's completing just 54.5 percent of his passes for 1,178 yards, six touchdowns and three interceptions but does have has at least one TD pass in all four of his games this season. Of greater importance is his ability to run, as Ehlinger has rushed for 217 yards (5.2 YPC) in the Longhorns' last two games. He will start in this one, leading an offense averaging 33.7 PPG (41st). Defensively, Texas is allowing 24.7 PPG on 381.5 YPG but it's hard to ignore the 518 yards it allowed last Saturday to Oklahoma, a team with a similar QB to Rudolph, in Baker Mayfield. The pick: Oklahoma State was a trendy pick to make the four-team College Football Playoff but that was before it was upset at home 44-31 by TCU back on Sep. 23. TCU is now the leader of the pack in the Big 12 and currently ranks 4th in the latest AP poll. OSU is quite 'dead' yet but the Cowboys no longer have any margin of error. The Longhorns hold a 24-7 series lead over Oklahoma State and a 15-5 advantage in Austin but the Cowboys have put their mark on the series by winning five of the past seven meetings. In fact, after losing 15 of 16 times in Austin, the Cowboys have won the last four meetings in Austin, marking the longest winning streak against Texas at home by one team. Here's the catch though, Tom Herman’s Houston & Texas teams are a perfect 7-0 ATS as an underdog! Best way to go here is an 8* on the Over, as the Texas D won't be able to stop Rudolph and Co, while Ehlinger's dual-threat ability will allow Texas to score as well. |
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10-20-17 | Air Force -5.5 v. Nevada | Top | 45-42 | Loss | -105 | 105 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: It's MWC play on Friday night at MacKay Stadium when the Nevada Wolf Pack host the Air Force Falcons. The Falcons opened with a 67-0 win over VMI but then lost four in a row. In the last two losses of the team's skid, Air Force allowed 56 points at New Mexico and then 48 at home to Navy. However, after falling behind UNLV by 27 points, Air force rallied for a 34-30 win. Nevada opened 2017 with five straight losses, before winning 35-21 at home over at Hawaii but lost last Saturday 44-42 at Colorado State. Air Force: The Falcons rallied last Saturday, despite six fumbles (four lost), as QB Arion Worthman rushed for five TDs. He's completing just 49.2% for YPG but has eight TDs and just one INT. He's also the team's leading rusher (550 YR and 10 TDs), as the Falcons rank 6th in the nation averaging 304.0 YPG on the ground. Air Force is allowing 31.8 PPG (101st). Nevada: The Wolf Pack come off of a near upset of MWC favorite Colorado State in a 44-42 loss (as 25-point underdog) but that leaves the team just 1-6 (1-2 in MWC play). QB Gangi is completing a modest 58.8 percent but has 14 TD passes (eight the last two games) and just six INTs. RB Moore (442 YR / 5.7 YPC) lead a the rushing attack taht averages only 128.6 YPG (101st) and Nevada averages a modest 25.3 PPG (91st). The defense allows 35.6 PPG (112th). The pick: CBSC televises this game but really, who cares? Air Force is off a 10-3 season and is just 2-4 heading into this game. The Falcons have been to nine bowls in the last 10 seasons and need a win here to have any chance of extending that run. Make Air Force a 10* play. |
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10-20-17 | Kings v. Mavs OVER 202 | Top | 93-88 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sacramento Kings and Dallas Mavericks were picked by many to finish near the bottom of the Western Conference for the 2017-18 season and both opened with losses on Wednesday. However, the Kings faced the much tougher opponent, falling 105-100 at home to the Rockets, covering as a home underdog. As for the Mavs, they wilted down the stretch in a 117-11 home loss to the Hawks. Tonight's game at American Airlines Center will feature two exciting 19-year-old PGs in the Mavericks' Dennis Smith Jr. and the Kings' De'Aaron Fox. Sacramento: Fox put forth an effort that provided an early glimpse of a potential franchise cornerstone, scoring 14 points while adding four rebounds and five assist, coming off the bench."Even though I've seen him for the last month or so, it's something to see," guard Garrett Temple told reporters regarding Fox. "When those lights go on, his ability to get into the paint and push the pace is something I haven't seen, besides John Wall. When he gets it going, picks his spots, when he gets that jumper down he is going to be hard to guard." Willie Cauley-Stein led the Kings with 21 points and 10 rebounds, while veteran PG George Hill had 16 points in his team debut. Dallas: Dennis Smith Jr. surpassed Nowitzki as the youngest player to start for the Mavericks and produced a double-double in his debut (16 points & 10 assists). Speaking of Dirk, he struggled in scoring only 10 points on 4-of-14 shooting. Good news came with Nerlens Noel scoring 16 points (on 6 of 6 FGs) and adding 11 rebounds. It's only one game but Dallas just could be concerned with Harrison Barnes, who led the team in scoring last year at 19.2 PPG. However, Barnes averaged nearly three points fewer after the All-Star break than he did before and opened this campaign by missing all six of his three-point attempts while shooting 3-of-13 overall! The pick: The Kings have won four of the last five meetings against Dallas, but the Mavs are 23-2 SU at home against Sacramento since 2003. That said, I don't much trust Dallas, as the Kings have covered 11 of the last 14 meetings, overall. The Kings covered vs. Houston without the services of Zach Randolph (oral surgery) but he's expected to be cleared to play in this pone. Meanwhile, expect Nowitzki to improve on his 4 of 14 shooting, as should Barnes and Matthews (combined 8 of 25). Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-20-17 | Yankees +132 v. Astros | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
I hope to get all three games completed but may have to leave SNF for Saturday morning. Be sure to post Sunday free play, so all I have to do is insert analysis. I'm busy Saturday with my friend's son's first soccer game (he's six). Something you will be dealing with soon. The set-up: The Houston Astros won Games 1 and 2 of the 2017 ALCS by identical 2-1 scores. They were hardly dominating wins but the Astros got excellent pitching performances from Keuchel and Verlander. They left for the Bronx feeling pretty good about their chances to win the American League pennant and advance to the second World Series in franchise history. However, the same team which led the majors in runs (896), batting average (.282), on-base percentage (.346) and slugging percentage (.478), while ranking second to the Yankees in HRs (238 to 241) during the regular season, returns to Progressive Field Friday night down 3-2 in the series, one win away from elimination. The Yankees won Games 3 through 5 by scores of 8-1, 6-4 and 5-0. That Houston offense I mentioned earlier, has mustered just nine runs with one HR this series and checks in batting .147 with an on-base percentage of .234 and a slugging percentage of .213! The Yankees, a team thought to be at least a year away from contending, is now one win away from returning to the World Series for the first time since it won its 27th title in 2009. The pitching matchup: Luis Severino (1-0 & 5.56 ERA in the 2017 postseason) goes for the Yankees and Justin Verlander (3-0 & 2.04 ERA) goes for the Astros, in a rematch of Game 2 of this series. Severino was lifted following the fourth inning of Game 2, when he struggled to get loose and was hit in the wrist by a comebacker. Meanwhile, Verlander pitched a gem, going nine innings and allowing just one run on five hits with 13 Ks. He got his third win of the postseason when the Astros scored in the bottom of the 9th. Severino was New York's best starter this year but that has not been the case in the 2017 postseason. He was able to get just one out in the wild card game vs the Twins (allowed three runs and two HRs), although he did have a solid effort in Game 4 of the ALDS, allowing three runs on four hits in seven innings in the Yankees' 7-3 win against Cleveland, before his four-inning stint in Game 2 against the Astros, opposite Verlander. Returning to Verlander, isn't he "the man" Houston wants on the mound tonight? After all, Verlander is 8-0 with a 1.39 ERA in eight appearances (seven starts) since arriving in a trade from the Detroit Tigers on Aug. 31. The pick: Verlander is surely a stud but Houston just "isn't hitting" Is a return home all the team need s to 'flip the switch?" That seems like a stretch to me and hasn't the Yankees' resilience been the story of this postseason? The New York lineup (especially the "big boys") have caught fire these last three games, scoring 19 runs on 25 hits. I doubt even Verlander can hold them back here. Make New York an 8* play. |
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10-20-17 | Blazers -3.5 v. Pacers | Top | 114-96 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The Portland Trail Blazers travel to Indianapolis tonight and will try to play "Can you Top This" in their meeting with the Pacers. The answer is likely no, as the Blazers are coming off a 124-76 win at the Phoenix Suns on Wednesday. It was the second-largest margin of victory in franchise history and also, the largest margin of victory in any opener in NBA history! The Pacers opened their season as well on Wednesday and while their margin of victory was a more modest nine points, Indiana scored 140 points at home against the Brooklyn Nets, placing eight scorers in double figures! Portland: The Blazers cruised to their win over the Suns despite playing without their second-best scorer (player?). Portland will welcome C.J. McCollum back from suspension when they visit the Indiana Pacers on Friday. Damian Lillard knocked down 4-of-6 from beyond the arc en route to a team-high 27 points, while reserve guard Pat Connaughton stepped up with a career-high 24 points (made it 4-of-7 three-point attempts). Portland made 14-of-24 from three-point range but was already looking ahead after the game. Probably don't read too much into (the win) because it's a long season," Trail Blazers coach Terry Stotts told reporters. "Obviously we're pleased with it, but Indiana is a new day. You can't rest on it. It's a great way to start the season, particularly the manner in which we did it, but the next game is the next game." T Indiana: The Pacers installed a faster-paced offense which will move ball more after trading away ball-stopping star Paul George. The results were positive on opening night, as three players scored 20 or more points and the team totaled 29 assists while shooting 52 percent from the floor. PG Darren Collison, one of three new starters, handed out 11 of those assists and scored 21 points on 9-of-12 shooting. Former Indiana Hoosier star Victor Oladipo led the way with 22 points and returning center Myles Turner added a double-double (21 & 11). "It was a great first night and hopefully Pacers fans get a chance to see what we're capable of and what type of basketball team we are," Oladipo told reporters. "Obviously, it wasn't perfect and there are some things we want to get better and improve at; but it's always great to get a win in the NBA." The pick: Both Portland and Indiana 'beat up' on teams which will both be looking to gain the most ping pong balls possible in the upcoming draft (Suns and Nets, respectively), so neither has gotten too carried away with their big opening night performances. Bottom line here is that McCollum will be back in the starting lineup for this game and last season, he and Lillard combined for 57 PPG and shot 49% against Indiana. Meanwhile, the two Indiana players who led the way for the Pacers against Portland last year, Paul George and Jeff Teague, have both left for 'greener pastures' (OKC and Minny, respectively). Make Portland an 8* play. |
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10-20-17 | Western Kentucky v. Old Dominion OVER 47 | Top | 35-31 | Win | 100 | 29 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Western Kentucky opened 1-2 but enter Friday's game on a three-game winning streak (but just 1-2 ATS). The Hilltoppers go for their 4th straight win with a visit to the Old Dominion Monarchs, who are 2-4 SU and 1-5 ATS. Both schools reside in the East Division of C-USA, with Western Ky sitting at 2-1 and ODU at 0-2. Western Kentucky: Jeff Brohm took over at Western Ky when Bobby Petrino left for Louisville and led the Hilltoppers to three straight bowl berths. Western Ky won all three of those bowl games, although Brohm took the Purdue job prior to last year's bowl win. Mike Sanford Jr. is a first-time head coach and his offense has averaged only 25.5 PPG (87th), after Brohm's three teams averaged 44.4, 44.3 and 45.5 PPG. However, the defense allows a modest 18.2 PPG (19th) on 340.5 YPG (34th). In comparison, Western Ky had allowed 25.9 and 24.6 PPG the last two seasons. Old Dominion: Monarch fans may already be looking ahead to the start of basketball season. The offense stinks, averaging 17.0 PPG (123rd) on 287.3 YPG (126th). The defense is no better, allowing 34.7 PPG (110th) on 436.8 YPG (103rd). ODU has a freshman QB in Steven Williams and RBs Ray Lawry (back healthy) and Jeremy Cox have underachieved. The pick: Western Kentucky is coming off a 45-16 victory versus the Charlotte 49ers on Saturday and while the Hilltoppers didn't run the ball well, QB Mike White completed 33 of 47 for 398 yards with five TDs. I realize this is not the Western Ky offense of the last three seasons but these two schools have met just three times, all coming these last three season. Western Ky has won all three, with the final scores being 59-24, 55-30 and 66-51. Doing the math, that's an average final of 95.0 PPG. Yes, make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-19-17 | Chiefs v. Raiders UNDER 47.5 | Top | 30-31 | Loss | -110 | 56 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs welcomed the Steelers to Arrowhead Stadium last Sunday as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 5-0 (also 5-0 ATS). Kansas City entered last week's game averaging nearly 33 points through its first five victories but its offense was bottled up (held to 13 points on 251 yards) while its 27th-ranked run defense (130.7 YPG) was stampeded for 194 yards.The Raiders were a 'sexy' pick to strongly compete for the AFC title in 2017 and after opening with a 26-16 win at Tennessee and then routing the Jets 45-10 at home, expectations were "off the chart." However, as the Raiders get set to host one of their most-hated rivals (from the days of the original AFL), Oakland will be trying to snap a four-game losing streak. Kansas City: QB Alex Smith did not have his best game of 2017 in KC's 19-13 loss to the Steelers but he does enter this contest having completed 72.9 percent of his passes Oakland: QB Derek Carr got off to a great start but a fractured bone in his back has slowed him. He returned to the lineup after missing one game last Sunday but he had another mediocre game in the Raiders' 17-16 home loss to the Rams (171 YP / one TD / 2 INTs / 67.5 QB rating) and now has four interceptions in his past three contests, after tossing only six picks in the entire 2016 season. The pick: The Chiefs travel to Oakland Thursday night, looking to avoid back-to-back losses for the first time since October of 2015. What's more, the Chiefs have won nine straight road games. The Chiefs are 14-3 ATS in their last 17 road games and 11-3 ATS in their last 14 meetings in Oakland. That said, I think we'll get an "all-out" effort from the Raiders in this one. However, in the team's four-game skid, Oakland has scored 10, 10, 17 and 16 points (that's just 13.3 PPG). That brings in this stat..."the under" is 18-6 in the last 24 meeting between these hated rivals. Make the under a 10* play in this one. |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder OVER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the NBA schedule was set before the Knicks traded Carmelo to OKC but is sure seems like a "set up" that the first game of the 2017-18 season for both New York and Oklahoma City is the first game of tonight's TNT doubleheader between the Knicks and Thunder at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Thunder made arguably the biggest 'splashes' of the off-season by bringing in All-Stars Carmelo Anthony and Paul George to pair with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook. As for the Knicks, they received center Enes Kanter, swingman Doug McDermott and a draft pick in that Anthony deal, finally committed to a youth movement centered around 22-year-old Latvian Kristaps Porzingis, who is ready to lead the team after averaging 18.1 PPG last season in Anthony's shadow. New York has missed teh postseason the last four seasons, averaging about 29 wins per season! New York: "For myself, I wanted him to stay [in New York], and to play with him and learn from him and so on," Porzingis told reporters of Anthony. "But from the other side, I understand that he needed a new challenge in his career and he wants to win a championship one day, so I'm happy for him. He's in an environment where he might be able to do that soon." PG Derrick Rose is also gone from last season's squad and maybe the biggest "addition by subtraction" is that the Knicks no longer have Phil Jackson 'hanging over' the entire operation. 19-year-old Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina has been impressing coaches and teammates in camp and will be counted on to step in for Rose.. "Usually for a young kid like that, you've got to spend a lot of time explaining plays, explaining NBA sets. You're not able to go to all the little tricks and all those things for a while," New York coach Jeff Hornacek told ESPN.com. "With Frank, you can talk about them already. So that's great." Joining Ntilikina in the backcourt is shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr, who signed a $71 million deal with the team after averaging 14.5 PPG for the Atlanta Hawks last season. Oklahoma City: Westbrook became the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double over the course of the season (31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists), but the individual success still led to a first-round playoff exit. OKC wasted little time over the summer jumping into the Western Conference arms race and nabbed a pair of stars disgruntled with their former situations in George and Anthony. Now, the biggest question is, how many shots does each player need to stay happy? Westbrook averaged a league-high 24 FG attempts last season while Anthony hoisted 18.8 shots and George put up 18 for the Indiana Pacers. The pick: As the saying goes, "you can't make this up." Carmelo Anthony's first game for his new team will be against his most recent employer, the New York Knicks. Head coach Jeff Hornacek no longer has to worry about Phil Jackson's "triangle" and he let the Knicks run to their heart's content in the preseason. However, that also revealed the team's extreme defensive deficiencies. That style could be 'suicide' here in OKC. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -118 | 80 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-1 (2-1 in the AAC) Memphis Tigers handed Navy its first loss of the season last Saturday. edging the Midshipmen 30-27. The victory allowed the Tigers to move into the latest AP poll at No. 25, for the first time since 2015. Memphis' lone loss in 2017 has come 40-13 at UCF but I should note that UCF is one of just eight unbeaten FBS teams and is currently ranked 20th in the AP poll. It's an AAC game Thursday night game when the Tigers visit TDECU Stadium and Houston on ESPN. The Cougars will be looking to atone for 45-17 upset loss at struggling Tulsa (2-5). Houston welcomes Memphis with 4-2 overall record (2-1 in the AAC). Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson is completing just 59.3 percent of his passes but has thrown for for 1,814 yards, 19 TDs and just five INTs. The Memphis ground game is averaging 180.2 YPG (55th), led by Henderson (542 yards / 8.1 YPC) and Taylor (307 YR / 5.4 YPC). WR Anthony Miller has 45 catches and nine TDs, although nine different players have at least one TD catch. Memphis is averaging 40.3 PPG (12th) but allowing 33.8 PPG (109th) on 477.5 YPG (116th). Houston: This is Major Applewhite's first season at Houston, taking over for Tom Herman (now at Texas). Applewhite opened the season with Kyle Allen as his starting QB but after a 27-24 at home to Texas Tech, he gave the starting job to Kyle Postma. The Cougars won the first two games Postma started but then came last Saturday's 'ugly' 45-17 loss at Tulsa. Allen has attempted 104 passes (76.9%) for 751 yards with four TDs and four INTs, while Postma has 122 pass attempts (65.6%) for 805 yards with four TDs and five INTs. Houston's ground game is averaging 161.8 YPG (69th), led by Catalon (431 YR / 4.8 YPC) and Birden (227 YR / 5.8 YPC). Houston is averaging just 25.5 PPG (86th), down from 40.4 and 35.8 PPG the last two seasons. However, the defense has been solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (39th), which is in keeping with the team averaging between 20.8 and 23.5 PPG the previous four seasons. The pick: Memphis has won 11 straight regular-season non-Saturday games, including six on the road but the Cougars have won 11 straight conference home games, as well as six of the past seven against Memphis. The Tigers are coming off a huge win over Navy plus beat Houston last season 48-44, snapping a six-game losing streak in the series that dated to 2006. Cougars get their revenge. Make Houston a 10* play. |
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