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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-17-21 | Indians v. Reds UNDER 8.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds smashed the Indians 10-3 on Friday night, but I'm expecting a more defensive, lower-scoring "duel" here on Saturday afternoon. The Indians rank near the bottom of the league in runs scored. Triston McKenzie gets the nod here for the visitors and he's 0-0 with a 4.70 ERA. This is his third appearance of the season and he's been solid thus far. The pick: Sonny Gray makes his season debut for Cincinnati. Last year he was 5-3 with a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP. Before last night's big offensive explosion though, the Reds' bats had cooled off considerably. I think this interleague affair on Saturday afternoon will be highlighted by solid starting pitching. This is a 10* TOTAL CHAOS on the UNDER Indians/Reds. |
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04-17-21 | Braves -124 v. Cubs | 4-13 | Loss | -124 | 7 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: Don't look now, but the hungry Braves have won two in a row, beating the Marlins 7-6, and then getting the better of the Cubs in the opener of this series yesterday 5-2. Now, with the superior starting pitcher on the hill for them on Saturday afternoon, I expect the visiting side to find a way to get the job done here as well. The Braves hand the ball to Huascar Ynoa, who is 0-0 with a 0.75 ERA, to go along with 15 K's over three appearances (has piched 12 innings, conceding just a single run off six hits.) The pick: That's bad news for a Cubs team which has planted just 32 runs over 12 games. It's also bad news for their starter Trevor Williams, who is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA. Chicago is just 3-7 in its last ten at home while the Braves are 9-4 in their last 13 following a victory. Look for the Braves' bats to wake up here and for Ynoa to easily get the better of his "gas can" counterpart. This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PITCHING MISMATCH on the Braves. |
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04-16-21 | Nuggets v. Rockets UNDER 224.5 | Top | 128-99 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver is coming off a 123-106 home win over Miami. With a couple nights off after this before a home game vs. the Grizzlies, there's no need for the visiting side to try and run up this score. Houston isn't going to win this game with its great defensive play, so the last thing the Nuggets want to do, especially without offensive standout Jamal Murray in the line-up, is to turn this into a track-meet with Houston. The pick: HOuston has lost nine of ten and four in a row, but note that it's seen the total dip "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after three or more straight SU/ATS losses in a row. When you add it all up, I expect a more methodical pace from Denver here, one which will help in driving this total "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Nuggets/Rockets. |
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04-16-21 | Giants -138 v. Marlins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -138 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Giants to find a way to get the job done here. Anthony Desclafani went six innings vs. the Rockies in his last outing and he gave up no runs and struck out eight. So far the efficient righty has allowed just one run over 11 innings of work this year. The pick: Daniel Castano is making his season debut for the Marlins today, and clearly he draws a tough opponent. He posted a 3.03 ERA in six starts in 2020, but getting called up on Sunday, it's hard to imagine he'll last very long here. The Marlins are only 1-5 at home and this is another major mismatch on the mound for them. Lay the price. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Giants. |
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04-16-21 | Flames v. Canadiens OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I base my totals on "situations." Montreal has lost four of five, including a 4-1 setback here to these very Flames two nights ago. Calgary has won two straight, and it can't afford to take the foot off the gas with the regular season's end fast approaching. These are two teams in need of a victory here and each has plenty of motivation. As I said, this one sets up great as more of an offensive game from a situational standpoint. The pick: ALso note though that the Habs have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last ten in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which they were held to one or less goals in. Expect a wide-open "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER Flames/Canadiens. |
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04-15-21 | Kings +12 v. Suns | Top | 114-122 | Win | 100 | 14 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: I think there's value on this hungry underdog side out to break an eight-game slide. That includes a 123-111 setback at home to Washington just last night. Clearly Phoenix is the better team, but it's interesting to note that it's been exchanging ATS wins/losses over its last ten games straight. The pick: Off a big 106-86 SU/ATS win/cover at home over the Heat, there's no reason not to believe this incredibly strong pattern won't continue here. The Suns don't need to run up the score in the second half if they have a lead. The Kings are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after five or more straight ATS losses in a row. No outright, but closer than expected. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Kings. |
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04-15-21 | Sabres v. Capitals UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -118 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo has struggled on the defensive end, but it's equally as horrible on the offensive end of the ice. Washington is one of the highest scoring teams in the league, but it's been phenomenal of late defensively as well. So why is this game going "under" today instead of "over?"Â The pick: Buffalo has seen the total go "under" eight of its last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it allowed four or more goals in, while Washington has seen the total dip below the posted number in seven of its last ten after playing to three or more straight "overs" in a row. I think the Capitals shut down Buffalo here and believe this'll be a tight, lower-scoring "under" once the final horn blares. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Sabres/Capitals. |
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04-15-21 | Diamondbacks v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-6 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams that got out to poor starts, but which have looked a bit better of late collide in the Nation's capital in the opener of this three-game series. Each team sends a pitcher to the hill that struggled in his opening start, and I expect that trend to carry over here and I look for this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. The pick: Merrill Kelly is 0-2 for the D-Backs. In his most recent loss he was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over six innings vs. the Rockies. His counterpart Patrick Corbin is 0-1 after allowing six runs off six hits with three walks over four innings vs. the Dodgers on Saturday. Look for these two still volatile starting pitchers to get the hook early and for these suspect pens to collapse late. This number is low, the play is the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the OVER D-Backs/Nationals. |
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04-14-21 | Clippers v. Pistons UNDER 222.5 | Top | 100-98 | Win | 100 | 13 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers are rolling along, as they've now won six in a row. However, after last night's high-scoring 126-115 road win in Indiana, I believe LA comes out a bit flat here and rests some of its super stars vs. the lowly Pistons. And that's because the Clippers will end their Eastern swing two nights later in Philadelphia. It's a classic "trap," which I believe will result in a lower-scoring output from the visiting side tonight. The pick: Detroit has lost two in a row, most recently a 131-124 setback at the Clippers three nights ago. Detroit only averages 107.8 PPG, and I have a hard time seeing it reaching that mark vs. this tough Clippers defense. This one has lower-scoring battle written all over it. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Clippers/Pistons. |
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04-14-21 | Marlins v. Braves -1.5 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves have yet to hit their stride this year. Perhaps ATL won't live up to its preseason expectations, but it's a really good team that's out to avenge yesterday's 14-8 humbling defeat to these very Marlins. In fact the Braves have now lost three straight. And after four straight losses, the Marlins have now won three in a row. But not only is ATL clearly the more motivated side in this matchup, but it also definitely has the superior starting pitcher on the hill. And it's this massive talent discrepancy that makes me have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the pick-em price. The pick: Nick Neidert gave up one earned run off three hits with five walks over 4.1 innins in a no-decision to the lowly Mets on Thursday. Clearly he'll have his hands full here though in this difficult road venue. Charlie Morton is 1-1 with a 3.27 ERA this season. The veteran holds a 12:3 K:BB and I think he's well worth the price of admission (-1.5 runs) in this matchup and considering how desperate/hungry his team is. This is a 10* RUN-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Braves. |
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04-14-21 | Flames v. Canadiens -149 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -149 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Canadiens can ill afford to take the foot off the gas despite a 4-2 win over Montreal here two nights ago, because previous to that it had lost three in a row. The Canadiens also play with revenge after losing to Calgary 3-1 in their most recent matchup. The pick: The Flames come in off a highly-satisfying 3-2 OT win at Toroto just last night. Can anyone say "letdown" spot? Montreal's offensive and defensive numbers are vastly superior. The Habs have the advantage of playing at home, they play with revenge and their catching a contented Calgary side off an exhausting OT win on the road just last night. All things considered, I believe this to be the very definition of "great line value." This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Canadiens. |
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04-13-21 | Clippers v. Pacers UNDER 229.5 | Top | 126-115 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: The Clippers have won 11 of their last 13. LA averages 115.1 PPG, while coneding just 108.3. The Pacers enter playing their best basketball of the season, as they've won four of their last five. Indiana averages 113.5 PPG, and it allows 113.7. The pick: Kawhi Leonard won't be playing tonight, but LA is used to playing without him. The under is 14-3 the last 17 in this series here and everything points to more of lower-scoring contest here, where each offense is run through the half-court. With Indiana looking to impose its will and keep its momentum going, everything points to the "under" as the correct move here in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Clippers/Pacers. |
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04-13-21 | Sabres v. Bruins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston's lost two in a row. First it was a 3-2 loss at Philly, then it was an 8-1 blowout beatdown destruction setback at home to Washington. The Bruins only average 2.72 GPG, and despite the letdown against Boston, their strengthy for sure lies on the defensive end, as they only allow 2.62. The pick: The Bruins earned a 3-2 win over Buffalo the last time these teams played. The Sabres have been playing a lot better of late, as they come in off a 5-3 win on the road in Philadelphia, two nights after a tight 4-3 loss at home to Washington. Note though that the Sabres have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 road games following a road victory in which they scored five or more goals in. This number is high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Sabres/Bruins. |
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04-13-21 | Red Sox v. Twins UNDER 8.5 | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Whether it's JA Happ or Nathan Eovaldi pitching for Boston, or Martin Perez or Kenta Maeda going for the Twins, I believe the conditions of this particular contest will help in making it a very lower-scoring pitchers duel. Yesterday's game was postponed at the last minute due to the civil unrest in Minnesota and I believe this distraction will effect these team's chemistry at the plate. The pick: Weather could be a major factor here as well. The postponements are working in favor of these starting pitchers in my opinion. Too many off-field distractions for these players leads to a lower-scoring "under." This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Red Sox/Twins. |
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04-12-21 | A's -125 v. Diamondbacks | 9-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both of these starting pitchers are coming off "stinkers," but I still thnink it favors the A's. Chriss Bassitt is now 0-2, most recently allowing four runs over six innings, while striking out four in a setback to the Dodgers. Bassitt now has an opportunity to get into the winners circle finally facing this inconsistent Diamondbacks offense. Last year Bassitt posted a career-best 2.29 ERA. The pick: Madison Bumgarner was crushed in his opener, conceding five runs off eight hits in a setback at Colorado on Wednesday. After two starts, the veteran "gas can" has allowed 11 runs over nine innings of work. I expect Bassitt to get the better of Bumgarner over the first five innings and that'll be more than enough for the hungry A's to post a victory. This is an 8* play on the A's. |
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04-12-21 | Marlins +1.5 v. Braves | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 10 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Braves are probably the better team in this series, but so far Atlanta has yet to find its stride this season, either at the plate or on the hill. Last night the Braves fell 7-6 at home to the Phillies. Both teams are dealing with issues, but I think that Sandy Alcantara offers great value in this matchup. The pick: Alcantara is a horse, who threw six scoreless vs. the Rays on Opening Day, before then taking a loss vs. the Cardinals, depsite tying a career-high with ten strikeouts. Over 18 2/3's vs. the Braves, he has three no-decision and a 2.41 ERA. Huascar Ynoa earned a no-decision despite a strong effort vs. the Nationals in his last start, but that has to be taken with a "grain of salt" considering the form of Washington right now. Outright is obviously possible, but I'm laying the price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance just in case. This is an 8* RUN LINE PLAY on the Marlins. |
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04-11-21 | Raptors v. Knicks UNDER 214.5 | Top | 96-102 | Win | 100 | 11 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: After winning three of their last five games, including a big 135-115 rout of the Cavaliers on the road last night, I expect Toronto to finally come out flat here vs. the defensive-minded Knicks. The pick: New York will look to take advantage and grind out a win here. The Knicks are in the Top 10 in most defensive categories, but after losing five of their last seven, they'll look to double down on the defensive end here vs. their exhausted opponent. Everything points to these two teams fighting hard, but for this total to fall well "under" at the end of the night. This is a 10 TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Raptors/Knicks. |
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04-11-21 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 7-6 | Loss | -104 | 12 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: I'm expecting a bit of a "duel" here between Matt Moore and Drew Smyly. Moore earned a no-decision in his first start of hte year vs. the Mets, allowing two runs over 3.1 innings. Smyly allowed four runs (just two earned though), over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. It was a solid debut for Smyly. The pick: Neither starter instills a ton of confidence, but the overall situation points to a lower-scoring duel here in my opinion. Further note that the Braves have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 12 after scoring five or more runs in a one run victory in its last outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Phillies/Braves. |
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04-11-21 | Rangers v. Islanders OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Rangers won here 4-1 two nights ago. So why is Sunday's "Battle of New York" going to go "over" the total, when the last one stayed "under?" Note that the Islanders have seen the total go "over" in eight of their last 11 home games in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which they scored one or less goals in. The pick: The Rangers have been trading wins and losses over their last five games and they'll be out to break that trend here. There's no reason not to think that the high-flying visiting side can't duplicate its latest offensive peformance, and with the home side out to match pace, expect this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rangers/Isles. |
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04-10-21 | Lakers +11.5 v. Nets | Top | 126-101 | Win | 100 | 14 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are banged up. The Lakers more so. This is a lot of points to be giving up though to the defending champs, who I expect to keep this one a lot closer than what the oddsmakers are trying to lead us to believe. LA has split its last eight games. The Lakers fell 110-104 to the Heat last time out. I expect a very competitive affair here as well. The pick: Brooklyn enters off a 139-111 blowout win over the Pels at home. The Nets though are still just 1-6 ATS in their last seven as double-digit favorites. I think this is a great situational play. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Lakers. |
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04-10-21 | Padres v. Rangers OVER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 102 | 13 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: San Diego has seen the total go "under" in six straight, but I expect that lop-sided trend to end here today. The Padres have plenty of key injuries, but they remain competitive. Texas is 3-3 and it'll be eager to bounce back after its 3-0 defeat in the opener of this series. Chris Paddack gets the start for the visitors after allowing three runs off four hits over four innings in a loss to Arizona last Sunday. The pick: Jordan Lyles gets the nod for the home side, he's 1-0 with a 3.18 ERA so far. The Rangers have been good at the plate as well, averaging .262 as a team, which ranks sixth in MLB. I don't trust either starter and these line-ups are primed to take advantage. Look for this one to fly "over" in the latter frames. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Padres/Rangers. |
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04-10-21 | Mariners +1.5 v. Twins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Seattle is 3-4. The Mariners are still "rebuilding," but they won't be going down without a fight here with Yusei Kikuchi on the mound. Kikuchi is coming off a great Spring and fantastic opening start, allowing three runs over six innings, walking one and striking out ten in the victory. The pick: The Twins got five shutout innings from Michael Pineda in his season opening win over the Brewers. Milwaukee continues to struggle at the plate no matter who it faces though, so Pineda's performance needs to be taken with a grain of salt in my opinion. I like Kikuchi to match his counterpart inning for inning and in a situation like that, I believe the value swings to the undervalued underdog. That said, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price here for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in the end. This is a 10* RUN-LINE PLAY OF THE MONTH on the Mariners. |
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04-10-21 | Bruins v. Flyers +109 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 109 | 8 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Philly is very much in the mix for a playoff spot. The Flyers are coming off back-to-back losses and they play with revenge after falling 4-2 to the Bruins in these team's most recent matchup. Boston's won three of its last four, including tow in a row, but with a home game vs. Washington tomorrow night, this absolutely sets up as a classic "look-ahead" spot for the visiting side. The pick: Note that the Flyers are 7-2 in their last nine in trying to revenge a two-goals or greater loss to an opponent. I'm banking on the hungrier, more focussed and revenge-minded home side delivering the goods at this great price. This is a 10* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Flyers. |
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04-10-21 | Yankees v. Rays UNDER 8.5 | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 7 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: After yesterday's offensive explosion in the Rays 10-5 victory, I think we'll have more of a pitchers duel on our hands on Saturday afternoon. Including the playoffs, the Rays have beaten the Yankees in 12 of the last 16 games since the start of the 2020 season. Chris Archer will look to extend that streak against the "Evil Empire," a club that he's gone a highly respectable 6-7 with a 3.14 ERA in 18 career starts against. The pick: The Yanks turn to Domingo German, who looks to rebound off a poor season opening start. He's 3-0 with a 5.73 ERA vs. the Rays in six appearances. The Rays have been trending "over" to start the season and the Yankees have been trending "under." After yesterday's game blew well past, look for this one to go the other way on Saturday afternoon. This is an 8* PITCHERS DUEL on the UNDER Yanks/Rays. |
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04-09-21 | Coyotes +205 v. Golden Knights | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 30 h 34 m | Show | |
The set-up: Ultimately I think that Vegas is overpriced in this spot, swinging the value to the hungry dog. The Coyotes aren't eliminated, and they'll be eager to try and pull off the upset here. Arizona has actually won three of its last four and its offense has scored three goals or more in each of its last eight games. The pick: The Knights are trending in the other direction, as they've lost four of their lat five. Vegas still only allows 2.2 GPG, but they've been terrible on that end of the ice of late. Vegas is over-priced in this spot considering the recent form of each side and to me, that makes the Coyotes the correct call. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Coyotes. |
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04-09-21 | Reds -130 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 6-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Reds are 5-1 and the D-Backs are 2-5. The Reds' offense is on fire and everything points to that trend continuing on Friday night in this favorable matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Mahle, who gave up two runs over five innings while striking out nine in his season debut. The pick: Arizona's offense has been inconsistent to say the least. The home side sends Taylor Widener to the hill and in his opening start he went six scoreless innings. The problem Widener though is that the D-Backs are 2-9 in their last 11 vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Arizona's going to break out of this rut at some point, but not here. Great value on the red hot Reds. This is a 10* NL BLOWOUT BEST OF THE BEST on the Reds. |
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04-09-21 | Spurs +7 v. Nuggets | Top | 119-121 | Win | 100 | 14 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: San Antonio plays with revenge here after falling 106-96 on this floor just two nights ago. Despite that loss, the Spurs have actually been pretty good on the road, going 12-8 SU and 13-7 ATS. Denver is 17-9 SU at home but only 12-14 ATS. Note that the Nuggets are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after holding their previous opponent to 99 points or less in a SU/ATS victory as well. The pick: The Spurs are still in the mix for a playoff spot, but they desperately need to find a spark. Note though that San Antonio is 7-2 ATS in its last nine in trying to revenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which it was held to under 100 points in. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Spurs. |
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04-08-21 | A's +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -135 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: The A's come in off their first win of the season, a tight, extra innings 4-3 victory over the defending champs at home last night, and they can obviously not afford to take the foot off the gas here. The A's play with revenge here as well after droppping all four of their seasoning opening home series vs. the Astros. Off a 4-2 win at LA two nights ago, the Astros return home for the first time this season. The pick: The A's hand the ball to Cole Irvin for his first start of the year. He features a five-pitch arsenal, highlighted by a 90.9 MPH sinker. Chrisitan Javier got hit hard in his opener and note that he's a terrible 0-2 with a ballooned 6.94 ERA in 11.2 innings vs. the A's in his career. The fact that the Astros haven't seen Irvin yet is working in favor of Oakland as well here. While the outright is possible, I'm going to lay this very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the A's. |
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04-08-21 | Lakers v. Heat -8 | Top | 104-110 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a bad spot for the Lakers. LA is coming off a win over the Raptors, but it has a tough game here vs. a hungry Miami team that's off a 124-112 loss at Memphis, but which had won four in a row previous. The Heat also hit the road after this for a tough four-game Western road swing, putting added importance onto this contest. The pick: LA I think is going to go through the motions with its superstars injured and sidelined. LA plays tonight against the Heat, and then tomorrow night in Brooklyn, making this a prime "look ahead" spot for the visiting side as well. This one is going to be personal to Pat Riley and the home side. Lay the points. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Miami Heat. |
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04-08-21 | Penguins +106 v. Rangers | Top | 5-2 | Win | 106 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two really good teams. Their offensive and defensive numbers are comparable. New York had question marks in net at the start of the year. SO too did Pittsburgh. However, defense and goaltending have been strengths for each club. Honestly, it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either of these sides to win this one. So why do I like Pittsburgh here? The pick: Revenge. It's off a humbling 8-4 loss here two nights ago. Note that Pittsburgh is 7-1 in its last eight in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded six or more goals in a four goals or greater setback. I think the Rangers come in complacent and I expect the revenge-minded Pens to take advantage. This is a 10* REVENGE BEST OF THE BEST on the Penguins. |
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04-07-21 | Golden Knights -141 v. Blues | 1-3 | Loss | -141 | 13 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Vegas crushed the Blues here 6-1 two nights ago. St. Louis has now lost seven in a row and I can't see this floundering team suddenly "flipping a switch" here and competing against the best defensive club in the league. The pick: St. Louis is going to win a game again at some point, but not here. Vegas just lost three games in a row and there's no way it can look past the Blues here. Expect a clinical performance from the Knights as they look to strike early and often and take the heart out of this poor St. Louis attack. Lay the price with confidence. This is an 8* TOP-SHELF DESTROYER on the Knights. |
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04-07-21 | Diamondbacks v. Rockies -105 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Antonio Senzatela got roughed up in his opening start, but I think he'll rebound nicely here and earn the win over his veteran counterpart. Senzatela allowed seven runs over 3 1/3's innings to the Dodgers in his opening start, but starts like that have truly been few and far between for the Rockies' ace. Note the he was 3-0 with a 2.00 ERA in 2020 at Coors Field and finished with a rotation-best 3.44 ERA over 12 starts. The pick: Madison Bumgarner has had success at this field and vs. Colorado over his career, but that's only because he's an ancient dinosaur. Bumgarner allowed six runs, including two homers in four innings in a fortunate no-decision to the Padres in his opener. Look for Senzatela to be the one to bounce back here. Great value on the home side. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Rockies. |
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04-07-21 | Knicks v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 99-101 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: These two teams have identical records at 25-26. Each still has a good shot at making the playoffs, but both need a win here. New York has lost four of its last five. The Knicks only average 105 PPG, while allowing 104.4. The pick: The Celtics have split their last ten games. Boston is coming off a lacklustre loss just last night vs. Philly, but I'm not buying into the fatigue factor here. Note that the Celtics average 112.4 PPG, while conceding 110.6. Boston is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three or more straight ATS losses in a row. The panic button has been pressed in Boston. Expect a big response/win this evening and lay short points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Celtics. |
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04-06-21 | Blazers v. Clippers OVER 226 | Top | 116-133 | Win | 100 | 29 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Two of the best in the West face off on Tuesday night and everything points to a faster-paced, high-scoring "shoot-out." The Blazers come to town on fire as they've won five of their last six games. Most recently they destroyed the Thunder 133-85. The combination of CJ McCollum, Norman Powell and Damian Lillard is proving to be a formidable one and I think the Clippers defense will have troubles containing them. The pick: The Clippers have been playing well too though, as they've won nine of their last 13. Most recently they come in off a 104-86 win over the undermanned Lakers. The Blazers are 0-4 ATS the last four in this series, so with the visiting side pushing the pace and trying to run up the score, look for this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Blazers/Clippers. |
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04-06-21 | Dodgers v. A's +1.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly, the panic button has been smashed in Oakland after its 0-5 start. The A's have drawn two tough opponents right out of the gate in Houston and LA, but there's no question that "enough is enough" for the A's right now. Is Clayton Kershaw a better pitcher than Chris Bassitt? Both pitchers got off to terrible starts in their respective openers. Kershaw is 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA after getting shelled for six runs over 5 2/3's innings in an 8-5 loss to the Rockies. He also saw the A's in Spring training and was rocked for nine runs over three innings, finishing the tune-up with an 0-2, 10.22 ERA record. The pick: Bassitt is 0-1 with a 5.06 ERA. Unlike his counterpart though, he had a great Spring, finishing 2-0 with a 1.74 ERA. Note though, that he left that game vs. Houston with a 1-0 deficit, only to watch his relievers instantly give up two home runs. Note that the A's are also 7-2 in their last nine after three or more straight losses in a row. Lay the price, grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the A's. |
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04-06-21 | Sabres +138 v. Devils | Top | 5-3 | Win | 138 | 26 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have been terrible this year, but Buffalo enters in better current form and I like it to find a way to get the job done here vs. the putrid Devils. Buffalo has won two of its last three, including a 3-2 shootout victory at home over the Rangers last time out. The pick: The Devils have lost three in a row, including back-to-back extra time setbacks, followed by a tight 5-4 home loss to the Capitals in their last outing. The Sabres play with revenge here as well after falling 3-2 in the most recent matchup in mid March. Look for Buffalo to deliver in this favorable matchup. This is a 10* UNDERDOG ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Sabres. |
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04-05-21 | Giants +1.5 v. Padres | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 43 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like the Giants to keep this one competitive throughout. Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani is 1-0 with a 2.25 ERA in four starts vs. San Diego, including posting a 1.50 ERA and 0.75 WHIP in two previous starts at Petco. The pick: Adrian Morejon is in the Padres starting rotation out of necessity, as Dinelson Lamet is rehabbing his shoulder for another month still. Look for the hungrier visiting side to take advantage. This is an 8* RUN LINE play on the Giants. |
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04-05-21 | Dodgers v. A's +1.5 | 10-3 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Dodgers are 3-1 and the A's are 0-4. I love the home side here to keep this one a lot more competitive than what this line would suggest. Dustin May was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA last year for the Dodgers. He goes up against Frankie Montas, who was 3-5 with a 5.60 ERA in 2020. The pick: "Embarrassing," A's manager Bob Melvin said after Sunday's loss. "We played really poorly. We have to turn things around. It's not just going to happen." Oakland is 8-2 in its last ten home games following a three-games or longer losing streak. Lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. This is a 10* RUN LINE play on the A's. |
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04-05-21 | Baylor v. Gonzaga -4 | Top | 86-70 | Loss | -114 | 14 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are fantastic. Baylor is great at shooting the three-ball, and Gonzaga is the best at shooting from two-point range. The Bulldogs allow just 89.1 points per 100 possessions on the season. The Bulldogs also have size at every position, which is a mismatch issue for Baylor, as it starts four players 6-foot-5 or shorter. The pick: The Bears are also tough defensively, but not on the same level as the Zags, allowing 91.8 points per 100 possessions overall (and 97.9 points per 100 possessions vs. Big 12 opponents.) Baylor would have had difficulties with that red hot UCLA team too. Expect Gonzaga's size, experience and depth to prove to be the difference maker and lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Gonzaga. |
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04-05-21 | Flyers +1.5 v. Bruins | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: In a game which is going to be more competitive than what Las Vegas is trying to lead us to believe, I'm going to lay the mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance here. To say this is a "revenge" game would be a massive understatement, as Boston has won all five in the season series so far. The pick: Boston is off a 7-5 win over Pittsburgh on Saturday and looks primed for a letdown, as note that the B's are just 2-7 in their last nine after scoring six or more goals in a victory in their last outing. Philly is the more desperate and revenge minded team here which is still in the thick of the playoff hunt. Lay the price for the 1.5 goals. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Flyers. |
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04-05-21 | Mets v. Phillies +1.5 | 3-5 | Win | 110 | 12 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Mets hit the field for the first time this year and while they clearly have the superior starter on the mound in this matchup, the Phillies have the advantage of having already played a series, while also having the advantage of playing at home here. The Mets were terrible last year, especially on the road. They also have give Jacob DeGrom little run support most nights. The pick: Matt Moore has been given a second chance after throwing a year in Japan. Thankfully Moore will be able to rely on a revamped bullpen which has thrown 7 1/3 scoreless innings over the first three games. Great value on the run-line here. This is an 8* RUN LINE play on the Phillies. |
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04-04-21 | Astros v. A's -108 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -108 | 22 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: After starting off the year with three straight losses to the Astros, I think that the A's will find a way to deliver here in this fourth and final game. The visitors go with Jose Urquidy, who looked decent in the Spring. Note that he was 0-1 with a 3.00 ERA in two starts vs. the A's last year. The pick: Sean Manaea gets the nod for the A's, and he'll be confident here as he was 1-0 with a 1.29 ERA in two starts vs. Houston last season. I think Manaea is the better starting pitcher. I also expect Oakland to finally break out of its hitting slump here. Great value on the desperate home side and superior starter. This is a 10* AL GAME OF THE WEEK on the A's. |
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04-04-21 | Lakers v. Clippers OVER 215 | Top | 86-104 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: THe Lakers have won three of their last four. They're still playing without the services of LeBron James and Anthony Davis, but I think that actually helps in our play on the "over" in this one. James and Davis are two of the best defenders on this team, and the Clippers will now look to take advantage and push the pace from start to finish. The pick: The Clippers have won eight of their last ten games. When you add up these team's season offensive averages, we get around 225 points combined. Finally note that the Lakers have seen the total go "over" the number in eight of their last 11 road games as a double-digit underdog. This number is a little low. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Lakers/Clippers. |
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04-04-21 | Braves -119 v. Phillies | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -119 | 18 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves were picked by many to possibly upset the Dodgers in the National League this year, so after their 0-2 start, there's no question that they'll be eager to finally break into the winners circle here this afternoon. Ian Anderson gets the nod for the visiting side and he enters off a strong Spring showing. In his final tune-up he struck out nine over just 4.2 innings of work, finishing with a huge 18:3 K:BB over 8.2 innings of work. The pick: Zach Eflin goes for the home side. Eflin dealt with some minor injuries in the Spring, so his workload was less than usual. I give Anderson the slight nod in this matchup, as he had a full and dominant spring. Also note that Philly is just 1-6 in its last seven vs. right-handed starters, while ATL is still 37-14 in its last 51 as a favorite. Look for Atlanta to finally break through with a victory tonight. This is a 10* NL GAME OF THE WEEK on the Braves. |
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04-03-21 | UCLA v. Gonzaga -14 | Top | 90-93 | Loss | -110 | 35 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA is great at shooting the three-ball, and it's been super efficient so far in its big Cindarella run. The Bruins had to play an extra game as well in the FIRST FOUR to even advance into the Big Dance. Gonzaga is on a mission to go undefeated, but after three straight covers to advance here, I'm expecting the Zags to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish in this one. The pick: Gonzaga is the highest scoring team in the nation, averaging 92.9 PPG. UCLA only averages 72.6. The Bruins are just happy to be here, while the Bulldogs are going to want to send a message at this point to its final opponent. On the National stage, look for Gonzaga to lay the hammer down from the opening tip, until the final horn. This is a 10* FINAL FOUR GAME OF THE WEEK on Gonzaga. |
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04-03-21 | Dodgers v. Rockies +207 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Colorado won the opener, and LA bounced back with the 11-6 victory yesterday. The Rockies though look good to respond here on Saturday against Walker Buehler, who enters off a putrid Spring showing, most recently getting shelled for nine runs off ten hits with one walk over five innings in a loss to Milwaukee. Walker finished Spring with a poor 7.94 ERA. The pick: Jon Gray had a poor spring as well, posting a 9.90 ERA over ten innings. Current "form" makes these starters a "wash." Gray gets the slight nod here for throwing at home, where he's very familiar. Also note that Colorado is 6-2 in its last eight in trying to revenge a home loss vs. an opponent in which it conceded ten or more runs in. A great price on a game which I believe is much more even than what this line is suggesting. This is a 10* UNDERDOG GAME OF THE MONTH on the Rockies. |
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04-03-21 | Flyers v. Islanders UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 30 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Philly could really use a win here. The Flyers have lost six of their last ten, including a 6-1 defeat to a desperate Buffalo team las time out. They play with revenge here after a 2-1 defeat to the Isles in these teams last outing. Everything points to a similar low-scoring affair here as well. The pick: The Isles brok a two-game slide with a lop-sided 8-4 win over Washington, but previous to that had managed just four goals over those two losses. New York only allows an average of 2.43 GPG, which is ranked third in the league. After each team enters of such a high-scoring game in their last outings, look for a tighter, lower-scoring goaltenders battle this time around. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Flyers/Islanders. |
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04-03-21 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -153 | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 33 m | Show | |
The set-up: Off a tight 3-2 Opening Day loss, I like the Yanks to find a way to get the job done here in this favorable matchup. New York features a deep bullpen, and it has the superior starter on the hill today in Corey Kluber as well. Ross Stripling struggled last year though for the most part and I think he's in the wrong place at the wrong time this afternoon. The pick: Kluber was injured most of last year, but he's coming off a strong Spring showing. Stripling posted an ERA above 6.00 last year. Expect the hard-hitting home side to strike early and often and lay this price with confidence. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Yanks. |
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04-02-21 | Astros v. A's -134 | Top | 9-5 | Loss | -134 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Off an embarrassing 8-1 loss last night, I like Oakland to dip deep and find a way to respond on Friday night. The Astros go with Christian Javier on the mound tonight and while he's shown plenty of promise, in his two outings vs. the A's last year he would get shelled for seven runs off six hits over eight innings. The pick: The A's will turn to Jesus Luzardo, who has a decent .235 opponent batting average over the last two years. He faced Houston twice last year and allowd four runs over 12.2 innings of work. Javier only pitched three total innings in spring training. I'm going with Luzardo at this great price and in this revenge spot. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the A's. |
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04-02-21 | Flames +1.5 v. Oilers | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: Calgary's still in the hunt for the final playoff spot. The Flames won't be rolling over here and in this case, I think they're worth the price of admission here to lay this larger price, just to get the extra 1.5 goals of insurance, in case this one goes into extra periods, or even the shootout. The pick: Calgary does play with revenge here, as it's only won two of the six in the season series. The Flames continue to get solid goaltending from Jacob Markstrom and David Rittich. These provincial rivals are poised to a battle until the final moments. This is a 6* PUCK-LINE PLAY-BOOK on the Flames. |
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04-02-21 | Rockets v. Celtics OVER 223.5 | Top | 102-118 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston has lost 18 of its last 20. The Rockets have plenty of issues, and they have since Day 1. Houston averages 107.3 PPG this year, while allowing 113.6. Christian Wood and John Wall are a solid core to build around though and they'll each be out to try and pull off an upset here vs. the 23-25 Celtics. The pick: Boston was picked by some to come out of the East as top dog, but the C's are in rebuilding mode themselves. The Celtics average 112.2 PPG, while allowing 111.3. These teams have played to several "unders" of late, but with each pushing the pace as I expect from the opening tip until the final horn, it sets up great from a situational stand point, for this one to fly "over" the number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* NON-CONFERENCE TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Houston/Boston. |
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04-01-21 | Giants -106 v. Mariners | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -106 | 54 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: I like Kevin Gausman and Buster Posey and the visiting side to find a way to get the job done in this one. Gausman is in a contract year as well, so this is big for him to get out to a solid start. Good news is, he's coming off a strong Spring with a 3.97 ERA. Marco Gonzalez had a decent season for Seattle, but he's given up 11 runs over his last four innings of work in his final two Spring tune-ups and I simply can't see the veteran "throwing a switch" here and resolving all of his early command issues. The pick: Finally note that Gausman owns a sharp 2.88 ERA in 34.1 innings of work vs. the Mariners, while Gonzalez is 1-1 with a 6.75 ERA in ten frames vs. the Giants. Seattle is just 1-5 in its last six interleague home games, while San Fran is 8-2 in its last ten interleague contests. Great value here on the visitors. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Giants. |
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04-01-21 | Astros v. A's -105 | 8-1 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: Houston managed to make it into the Playoffs last year. The Astros lost George Springer and some other big names as well and I think the organization will have difficulties duplicating its past successes as it tries to recover from the cheating scandal still. The A's on the other hand won the AL West last year for the first time since 2013. Oakland has remained largely the same team and I expect it to find a way to deliver the goods here tonight. Zack Greinke was 3-3 with a 4.03 ERA last year. Note that last year that Astros were the only team to make the playoffs that did not have double-digit victories on the road (just 9-23 away from friendly confines.)Â The pick: Chris Bassitt was excellent for Oakland last season, going 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Also note that the A's are 90-37 in their last 127 home games as the favorite, while Houston is just 5-12 in its last 17 vs. a right-handed starter. Great value on the much better team and pitcher! This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the A's. |
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04-01-21 | Hornets v. Nets OVER 229.5 | Top | 89-111 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Charlotte's won four of its last five and it'll be out to push the pace here as it tries to pull off another upset. Overall the Hornets average 111.7 PPG, while allowing 112.7. The pick: Brooklyn's won eight of its last ten. The Nets average 119.1 PPG, while allowing 114.2. James Harden is now one of the favorites to win MVP this season. Charlotte enter off a 114-104 road win at Washington and it now faces a similar defense in the Nets. No reason not to think the Hornets won't be able to at least match that scoring output here. With two whole nights off afrer this before a game at lowly Chicago, whoever is on the floor for the home side tonight won't have anything to "look past" to either. It all sets up great for a higher-scoring "over." This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the OVER Hornets/Nets. |
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04-01-21 | Red Wings v. Panthers OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -113 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida won here 4-1 two nights ago, breaking the Red Wings two-game win streak. Detroit looks to bounce back here and I think it'll find the net a couple times tonight in this immediate revenge scenario. It's interesting to note that the Wings have in fact seen the total eclipse the posted number in eight of their last 11 in trying to revenge a loss vs. an opponent in which they scored one or less goals in. The pick: Florida has seen the total go "over" the number in 14 of its last 21 as well after back-to-back victories in which it's allowed a combined two or less goals in. Look for the Wings to push the pace here and for this total to fly "over" before the final buzzer sounds. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the OVER Wings/Panthers. |
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04-01-21 | Rays -140 v. Marlins | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 48 h 50 m | Show | |
The set-up: A really good pitching matchup here to open up the season. Miami did better than most expected last season and it should once again take a small step forward this year. The Rays lost to the Dodgers in the World Series last season, and they'll once again be in the mix at the end of the season. Tyler Glasnow was 5-1 with a 4.08 ERA last year. He as even better on the road though, going 3-0 with a 3.45 ERA away from friendly confines. The pick: Sandy Alcantara was 3-2 with a 3.00 ERA last year. The Marlins enter on a poor 7-18 run out of their last 25 as a home dog though. Tampa's line-up took a hit in the offseason, but it's still much deeper/talented than the Marlins. I look for Glasnow to get the better of his counterpart. Lay the price. This is a 9* NON-CONFERENCE ULTIMATE OF THE ULTIMATE on the Rays. |
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03-31-21 | Jazz v. Grizzlies UNDER 230 | 111-107 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Utah rolls into Memphis with a target on its back after six-straight victories. The Jazz average 117 PPG, while allowing 107.5. Memphis on the other hand has split its last six games. The Grizzlies average 111.7 PPG, while allowing 111.4. The pick: Memphis plays with immediate double-revenge here though after losing twice to Utah last week, which included a 16-point drubbing in the most recent one. The Grizzlies have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 in trying to revenge a loss vs an opponent though. I expect the home side to double-down on the defensive end and I look for this total to fall well "under" once it's all said and done. This is a an 8* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the UNDER Jazz/Grizzlies. |
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03-31-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Jets | 3-1 | Win | 185 | 13 h 45 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have been the best in the league. I think that the Leafs will win this game, and at the very least, also bury and empty netter. However, I don't think it's going to come to that. The pick: These teams numbers are incredibly similar, but the Jets are just 2-9 in their last 11 after a road victory in which they scored five or more goals in. Toronto plays with the added incentive of "revenge" here as well after losing 5-2 in the most recent matchup in mid March. Lay the 1.5 goals for the monster plus-money return. This is an 8* SITUATIONAL PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Leafs. |
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03-31-21 | Blazers v. Pistons UNDER 221.5 | Top | 124-101 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Portland has won three straight on the road. Detroit is just 8-13 at home, so the Blazers have a big opportunity to extend that streak here. The Blazers haven't played since Sunday, when they hammered they beat the Raptors 122-117. Detroit enters off a win over Toronto as well by a score of 129-105. The Pistons have won all three vs. the Raptors this year. The pick: But Detroit's only won back-to-back games twice all year. The Pistons only average 107.2 PPG this season and it's failed to reach the 100-point plateau in 12 games already this year. I don't trust Detroit's offense, and there's not going to be a need for the Blazers to push the pace either. Finally note that the Blazers have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 11 road games following a SU/ATS road victory in which they scored 120 or more points in. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL COACHS CORNER on the UNDER Blazers/Pistons. |
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03-30-21 | USC v. Gonzaga UNDER 154 | Top | 66-85 | Win | 100 | 27 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams can score. Both teams can defend. Honestly, it wouldn't be difficult to write a convincing argument for this one to go "over" the number either. But in my opinion, this one does in fact set up great for a lower-scoring "under." It's interesting to note, that both teams have gone 3-0 ATS to open up the tournament. Each will be wary not to give the other an open look from the outside. USC averages 79.7 PPG, while allowing only 64.5, but note that it's conceded just 58.3 over its first three NCAA Tourney games. The pick: Gonzaga's nation-leading offense (91.8 PPG) is going to have its hands full with this aggressive Trojans' defense. The Bulldogs are allowing just 68.6 PPG this year, and everything, in my opinion, points to this one being an extreme defensive battle, rather than a high-scoring "shootout." I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 10* ELITE 8 BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER USC/Gonzaga. |
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03-30-21 | Hornets v. Wizards UNDER 231.5 | Top | 114-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: Pretty much this one comes down to plain old common sense. The Wizards are off a high-scoring 132-124 home victory over the Pacers just last night and I'm expecting them to come out a bit tired here after that explosion. The pick: Charlotte has been playing better of late, especially for bettors by winning four in a row ATS, despite rookie sensation LaMelo Ball sidelined with injury for the rest of the year. That said, it's coming off a terrible 101-97 home loss to Phoenix, a contest which actually went to overtime. Washington has seen the total go "under" the number in ten of its last 14 when playing the second game of a back-to-back and off a SU/ATS victory in the first in which it scored 125 or more points in. This number is a little high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Hornets/Wizards. |
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03-30-21 | Oilers +1.5 v. Canadiens | 0-4 | Loss | -189 | 12 h 31 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think this is going to be a very competitive game. The Oilers are coming off a confidence-building 3-2 win OT win at Toronto last night, and I'm not going to buy into the whole fatigue factor here, instead I'll go the other way and expect it to help out the visiting side here. The pick: And especially against a Montreal team that's not seen live action for a month. Yes, the Habs will be rested. But rest leads to rust. Besides, every other team, in every other sport that's been hit by COVID has struggled to start with, or for the entire rest of the season. Will Montreal miraculously be the one team that bucks this trend? In a contest which I see being decided late or in extra time This is an 8* BIG-CHALK PUCKLINE DESTRUCTION on the Oilers. |
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03-29-21 | Jets v. Flames OVER 5.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Calgary enters off a much-needed 4-2 win over these very Jets on Saturday. The Jets though average 3.26 GPG this year and with revenge on their minds, I expect them to hit that average sooner, rather than later vs. this "on again, off again" Flames defense. The pick: Calgary only averages 2.61 GPG, but note that it's seen the total go "over" the number in seven of its last ten home games after scoring four or more goals, in a two goals or greater victory in its last outing. The Jets have seen the total soar "over" the number in nine of their last 12 in trying to revenge a two-goals or greater loss to an opponent. Expect a faster-paced, wide-open "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Jets/Flames. |
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03-29-21 | Arkansas v. Baylor UNDER 149.5 | Top | 72-81 | Loss | -115 | 33 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Baylor will be wary to get into a "shootout" here with the dangerous Razorbacks. The Bears hammered Villanova into submission by a score of 62-51 last tome out and I expect their tough defensive play to carry over here. How much gas does Arkansas have left in the tank after fighting tooth and nail in its 72-70 win over Oral Roberts as an 11-point favorite last time out? Not much in my opinion. The pick: Further note that Arkansas has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 11 neutal site games after allowing 70 or more points in its last outing, while Baylor has seen the total dip below in five of its last seven after holding its previous opponent to 55 points or less in a SU/ATS victory. I expect a war until the final buzzer and for this total to fall "under" once it does. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Arkansas/Baylor. |
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03-29-21 | Grizzlies v. Rockets +5 | Top | 120-110 | Loss | -107 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies four-game win streak against-the-spread came to an end in its second straight straight-up loss to Utah, falling 126-110 last time out. With the rematch at home against the Jazz on Wednesday, this absolutely sets up as a "look-ahead" spot as well for the visiting side. The pick: The Rockets struggles this season are well documented. First it was the James Harden ordeal, and then they were hit hard by COVID. The Rockets are getting healthier though and after hammering the Wolves 129-107 last time out, I expect the still hungry home side to catch this Memphis team flat-footed. The outright is definitely possible, but in the end grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Houston Rockets. |
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03-29-21 | Oregon State v. Houston -7.5 | 61-67 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: Will Oregon State's Cindarella run come to an end here? Maybe not. But for this play, I'm not concentrating on which team will win and cover the entire game, I believe this one sets up well for Houston in the first half of this contest. Oregon State stymied Loyola Chicago last time out in the first half, but Houston is an entirely different animal, that plays an entirely difference pace and approach. The pick: This is a bad matchup for the Beavers, who have been on an amazing run up to this point. If this was a "normal" season, Oregon State wouldn't even be in the NCAA Tournament. "Timing" and chemistry is obviously a big and real thing in sports wagering. I think the general CBB betting public has fallen in love with the Beavers, but all signs point to the Cougars coming out firing right out of the gate here as they look to "flip the script" on Oregon State and put the pressure on the Beavers from the "get go." I'm laying the points in the first half. This is an 8* FIRST HALF DESTRUCTION on Houston. |
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03-28-21 | Oregon +2.5 v. USC | Top | 68-82 | Loss | -109 | 108 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ducks smashed Iowa 95-80 behind 23 points from Chris Duarte last time out and I like them to carry that momentum over here into another victry. USC advanced by beating Kansas 85-51. These teams met on February 22nd in LA, and the Trojans won 72-58, setting this up as a classic revenge spot as well for Oregon. The pick: The Mobely brothers are tough to stop, but the Ducks perimeter defense has vastly improved since the last time these teams played against each other. The Ducks won the Pac 12 Championship and they've won 11 of their last 12. With a chance to avenge the earlier loss, I look for the red hot Ducks to do just that (that said, grab as many points as you can!) This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on Oregon. |
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03-28-21 | UCLA v. Alabama -6 | 88-78 | Loss | -115 | 105 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: UCLA has been hot. Previous to this point, the Bruins entered the Tournament on a four-game slide. UCLA averages 73.1 PPG, while allowing 67.9. Johnny Juzang and company have been playing well, but I think regression is finally in store here vs. this sizzling hot Alabama team. The pick: The Tide have won eight in a row, which includes the SEC Tournament Championship. Bama averages 79.7 PPG, while allowing 69.5. This is easily the toughest team that UCLA has faced so far in this tournament, but I can't see the Bruins slowing down this tremendous Tide offense, which excels in shooting from range (Alabama also has a huge rebounding advantage, by 14 per game.) I look for the Tide to pull away for a comfortable cover in the second half. This is an 8* SUPER BLOWOOUT on Alabama. |
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03-28-21 | Florida State +3 v. Michigan | 58-76 | Loss | -116 | 103 h 6 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Seminoles are a dangerous team that I think can win this one outright. FSU is off a dominating 71-53 win over Colorado in its last outing. Michigan advanced by beating LSU 86-78. The pick: Each team features depth and experience. FSU's Anthony Polite is going to be a matchup issue for Michigan, which continues to play without top player Livers. I believe FSU's strong defensive play continues here and while I do think the outright is possible, in the end I'll recommend that you grab as many points as you can. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on FSU. |
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03-27-21 | Celtics v. Thunder UNDER 219 | Top | 111-94 | Win | 100 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Boston's coming off a high-scoring 122-114 win at Milwaukee just last night and I don't think it'll be able to muster up the same energy levels here in the second game of the back-to-back. The pick: The Thunder are off a 116-107 home loss to Memphis. OKC has still won five of its last seven. The "under" is 4-1 the last five in this series in this building, and I absolutely expect that strong trend to continue here. Expect Boston to have a much different game-plan in the second game of the back to back and with each team playing a lot of half-court sets on offense, everything points to this one falling under once the final horn sounds. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER C's/Thunder. |
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03-27-21 | Panthers v. Stars -109 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Recent form sees Florida having lost three in a row, most recently a 3-0 setback at Chicago. Normally I like playing on team's that are hungry to break out of a slide, but in this case I think that the Panthers early fantastic start was just unrealistic to begin with, and what we're seeing now is the inevitable regression. The pick: The Stars play with revenge here after falling 3-2 in these teams most recent matchup on February 25th. Dallas just broke a three-game slide of its own with a tough 4-3 win at home over the defending champs and after such a rocky stretch over the last two months, this hungry home side can ill afford to take the foot off the gas right now. Especially facing this dejected Florida side in this revenge scenario. Great price on Dallas! This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on the Dallas Stars. |
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03-27-21 | Oral Roberts v. Arkansas -11 | Top | 70-72 | Loss | -110 | 82 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Oral Roberts has been fantastic, most recently advancing past Florida 81-78. The Golden Eagles have a dynamic offense which averages 82.0 PPG. The one weakness of Oral Roberts though is its defensive play, as it concedes 75.9 PPG. The pick: Arkansas held on for a tight 68-66 win over a dangerous Texas Tech side and I expect it to lay the hammer down here with the Elite Eight in sight. The Razorbacks already defeated Oral Roberts 87-76 in mid-December, but all signs point to an even bigger blowout here. This is simply a really bad matchup for Oral Roberts, as Arkansas has a couple players over 7 feet. Lay the points, expect a rout. This is a 10* SWEET 16 GAME OF THE YEAR on Arkansas. |
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03-27-21 | Villanova v. Baylor -6.5 | 51-62 | Win | 100 | 80 h 40 m | Show | |
The set-up: Villanova beat UNT 84-61 to advance in its most recent matchup, while Baylor advanced by beating Wisconsin 73-63. Both teams have looked good this year and honestly, it wouldn't be too difficult to write a convincing argument for either side to cover this contest. The pick: Villanova has two National Championships since 2016 though, while Baylor hasn't advanced past the first round since 2012. The Bears are the hungrier side here for sure. Baylor averages 83 PPG, while Villnova averages 75. Look for the Bears superior offense to pull away for the comfortable cover in the closing moments. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Baylor. |
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03-27-21 | Oregon State +6.5 v. Loyola-Chicago | 65-58 | Win | 100 | 77 h 1 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off big upsets to advance to the round of 16. Loyola Chicago sports some of the best defensive metrics in the country and while it did take out No. 1 Illinois last time out, I think the Beavers are still be undervalued in this spot. Oregon State's numbers over the last month have been incredible and it has an opportunity here to once again shock the nation. The pick: Loyola Chicago's only weakness is its offense. The Beavers are going to try and push the pace and get the Ramblers out of their comfort zone. I don't expect this underdog Oregon State side to go down quietly. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a war until the final buzzer blares. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Oregon State. |
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03-26-21 | Sharks v. Coyotes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -103 | 30 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have faced each other twice this season and they've gone 1-1. The Sharks enter on a rare two-game win streak, most recently handling the Kings 4-2. Despite that victory though, note that the Sharks have still scored two goals or less in four out of their last six games. Defense and goaltending have improved for San Jose though, as it's allowed two goals or less in seven out of its last nine. The pick: Arizona is coming off a high-scoring 5-4 shootout win over the Avs on Tuesday and I expect an immediate return to mediocrity here after that big/emotional win. Despite the victory as well, note that the Coyotes have scored two goals or less in six of their last eight games. Two hungry teams, which I predict will play to a classic lower-scoring battle on Friday night. This is a 10* TOTAL BEST OF THE BEST on the UNDER Sharks/Coyotes. |
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03-26-21 | Rockets v. Wolves OVER 225.5 | Top | 101-107 | Loss | -112 | 13 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams need a win here. Houston is 12-31 and it enters having lost 20 of its last 21 games. The Wolves are 10-34, and they've dropped ten of their last 13. Both teams are poor offensively, and poor defensively. Houston averages 106.9 PPG, while allowing 113.6, while Minnesota averages 109.3 PPG, while allowing 117.3. Suffice it to say, I don't expect any defense to be played tonight. These are two teams with nothing to lose, and I expect this atmosphere to result in a more up-tempo contest, rather than a slower-paced "chess match."Â The pick: Minnesota has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after a 20 points or greater loss in its last outing (lost 128-108 at home to Dallas.) The play is indeed the "over." This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Rockets/Wolves. |
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03-25-21 | Wizards v. Knicks UNDER 226.5 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington enters having lost nine of its last ten games. Overall the Wizards are averaging 114.9 PPG, while allowing 120.1. Fortunately for Washington, they're facing a Knicks offense that's definitely not classified as "explosive." The pick: The Knicks have split their last ten games. New York averages 105.3 PPG, while allowing 105 on the defensie end. These teams played here two nights ago and the Knicks exploded for the 131-113 win. Expect Washington to buckle down defensively as it tries to avenge that setback and expect the Knicks scoring to "return to the norm" after that bigger than usual output last time out. This number is high for sure. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Wizards/Knicks. |
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03-25-21 | Maple Leafs -1.5 v. Senators | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Using a "situational" approach to this strange NHL season can be effective. Team's are having to play double and triple headers against each other on a regular basis, so there are many scheduling, revenge factors, injuries and other external factors to consider, other than just offensive and defensive averages. That's the case every season, but not playing out of their respective divisions is certainly something that's never occured before. The pick: Here's a great spot to pull the trigger on Toronto to win big. The Senators are coming off a satisfying come-from-behind 3-1 win at home over Calgary, sweeping the Flames in two straight. Can anyone say "letdown" spot here? Toronto just broke a three-game slide with a 2-0 win over Calgary and it's had four whole nights off to prepare for this one. Toronto also plays with revenge here after falling 4-3 in these team's most recent matchup against each other in early March. I look for the visiting side to not only win, but to win by a decisive margin. This is a 10* PUCK-LINE ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Leafs. |
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03-25-21 | NC State v. Colorado State +1.5 | 61-65 | Win | 100 | 30 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: The 14-10 NCState Wolfpack average 73.5 PPG, while allowing 69.4. They're coming off a win over Davidson to advance. CSU beat Buffalo in the first round. Colorado State averages 75.9 PPG, while allowing just 65.8. The pick: The Wolfpack are only 2-5-1 ATS in their last eight following an ATS victory, while the Rams are 7-2 ATS in their last nine neutral site games following an ATS win. These teams are evenly matched, but CSU's superior defensive numbers will see it through to the semifinals. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Colorado State. |
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03-24-21 | Sabres +1.5 v. Penguins | 2-5 | Loss | -104 | 27 h 7 m | Show | |
The set-up: Buffalo is going to win a game at some point. It enters this one having lost 14 in a row. The Sabres came up short in New York last time out, falling 5-3. The last time Buffalo faced the Pens, the Sabres fell 3-0 in early March. This is a big game for the Sabres, as they look to avenge that shutout, while also break this miserable 14-game losing streak. The pick: This is the first game of a back-to-back. Buffalo is looking a 16-game losing streak right in the face here if it can't finally break through. We don't have to question the visiting side's effort in this one, but the Penguins have been in poor form of late, losing three of their last four, and I absolutely think they're overpriced here. In a contest which I see being decided late, or even in extra time, I'm laying the short price for the exrtra 1.5 goals of insurance. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Sabres PUCK LINE. |
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03-24-21 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-121 | Loss | -109 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics enter on terrible form, desperate to break out of a funk which has seen them lose five of their last seven games. Boston averages 112 PPG, while allowing 111.3. Jayson Tatum continues to be a bright spot, averaging 24.9 points and 6.8 boards per game. The pick: The Bucks are playing like Eastern Conference Champs right now, entering on a seven-game win streak and averaging 120 and allowing 112.5 per game. Giannis Antetokounmpo is questionable/out for this one, which obviously will effect the home side's game-plan today. I'm banking on this one being much slower-paced than what this large O/U line is suggesting. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Celtics/Bucks. |
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03-24-21 | Flames -170 v. Senators | 1-3 | Loss | -170 | 24 h 7 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Senators beat the Flames here two nights ago, setting this one up as a prime revenge spot for Calgary. The Flames are desperate to break out of a slide which has seen them drop three of their last four. Despite falling last time out, Calgary's strength lies on the defensive end, where it concedes a decent 2.9 GPG. The pick: The Senators have been playing a bit better of late, but they're still allowing an average of 3.8 GPG this season. Ottawa is also an absolutely terrible 12-41 in its last 53 after allowing two or less goals in its previous game. I think Calgary is the better team and I expect it to play like that tonight in this immediate revenge spot. Lay the price with confidence. This is a 6* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on the Flames. |
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03-23-21 | 76ers v. Warriors OVER 222.5 | Top | 108-98 | Loss | -112 | 15 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: The 76ers have won eight of their last ten, most recently holding on for a 101-100 win in New York. The Warriors have been rolling as well, as they've won three of their last five. Most recently Golden State beat the Grizzlies 111-103. Curry wasn't playing that game and he'll be out here as well, but the Warriors are deep and they play much better at home than on the road. The pick: Philadelphia has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last after coming off a SU road victory that went "under" the number, while Golden State has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 15 home games after a SU/ATS road victory in which it scored 110 or more points in. There are a few key players out for each side, but don't expect either to concentrate to heavily on the defensive side here. These are non-conference opponents and I definitely am expecting a very wide-open contest, one which blasts past this number sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the OVER 76ers/Warriors. |
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03-23-21 | Avalanche v. Coyotes +1.5 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The Coyotes play with revenge here, as they've dropped four of five in this season series. I think that matters here. The Avalanche now suddenly resemble the team that everyone thought they'd be before the season started. Colorado waffled with consistency for most of the first portion of the campaign, but it enters on a seven-game win streak. The pick: Arizona has lost six of seven. That includes a 5-1 setback here just last night. But I do now absolutely feel that this sets up as a classic "letdown/look-ahead" spot for the red hot visiting side, which will have one night off, before an important two-game home set against the division leading Golden Knights. The Coyotes have two whole nights off after this, before a home set with the Sharks, so it's time to "put up, or shut-up" for the home side here. I'm going to lay the price for the extra 1.5 goals of insurance. This is a 10* PUCK-LINE DESTRUCTION on the Coyotes. |
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03-22-21 | Pacers v. Bucks -10 | Top | 113-140 | Win | 100 | 29 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Indiana is coming off a hard-fought 109-106 OT victory in Miami just last night and I think it'll stumble here as it comes in "gassed." The Pacers managed to win both in Miami, but an imminent letdown does in fact seem, imminent. The pick: Milwaukee is coming off six straight SU victories, but it's gone just 2-4 ATS in that span, including going 0-2 ATS the last two. The Bucks hammered the Pacers 130-110 the last time these teams faced off and all signs point to a similar style beatdown here in my opinion. A great situational play, as I think that the Pacers are tired, and I expect the home side to push the pace and pull away down the stretch. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the Bucks. |
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03-22-21 | Maryland +6 v. Alabama | 77-96 | Loss | -115 | 28 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Maryland was in complete command in its 63-54 win over UConn as a 3.5-point underdog. Alabama won handily over Iona 68-55, but it was unable to cover the large 17-point spread. Maryland isn't explosive offensively (68.6), but it's efficent, as it hit 51.2 percent from the floor in its last outing. The Terps though are fantastic on the defensive end, conceding just 64.6 PPG. The pick: The Tide are on a seven-game win streak after winning the Conference Tournament and first round. Overall Alabama averages 79.2 PPG, while allowing 69.3. The Tide only managed 68 points in their last game, making just 47.2 percent from the floor. Regression is appearing for Alabama right before our eyes. Maryland's defense is underrated and I like it to once again keep the Terps competitive late. Grab the points. This is an 8* BLOOD-BATH on Maryland. |
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03-22-21 | Colorado v. Florida State -1.5 | 53-71 | Win | 100 | 27 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Colorado easily got by Georgetown 96-73 on Saturday, while FSU handled UNC Greensboro 64-54. The Buffs had an unusually awesome percentage from range in their opener and suffice it to say, I'm not expecting lightning to strike twice for them here. Overall the Buffs average 73.8 PPG, while allowing 63.6. The pick: Florida State allowed UNCG back into its opening round game, before finally pulling away for good in the final five minutes. Don't expect the Seminoles to take the foot off the gas here though. The Seminoles sport one of the deepest rotations in the country and I'm not reading too much into Colorado's win over an overrated Georgetown team, which somehow caught first in the Big East Tournament to advance. Look for the deeper and more experienced Seminoles to pull away and maintain down the stretch. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Florida State. |
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03-22-21 | Ducks v. Wild -203 | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 27 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Wild have had a couple nights off to absorb back-to-back losses to the Avalanche. Previous to that Minnesota had been unstoppable, but now it can get back on track here in this very favorable matchup at home. The Ducks have lost five of their last six and in those five losses they'v been shutout once and scored just one goal in the other four. The pick: Minnesota is 10-1 in its last 11 as a favorite and 8-0 in its last eight at home. The Ducks are just 1-6 in their last seven after allowing five or more goals in their previous outing. This line should in fact be closer to -300 in my opinion, making the Wild a steal at this price. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Wild. |
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03-22-21 | Ohio v. Creighton -5.5 | Top | 58-72 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio is coming off a monumental 62-58 upset win over Virginia in the first round. Can anyone say letdown spot? The Bobcats are in unchartered territory now and I think they'll stumble here vs. the deeper and more experienced Blue Jays. Creighton avoided an upset with a 63-62 win over UCSB. The pick: Don't read too much into Ohio's win though. Yes, it was big and signficant, however UVA got hit by some major COVID issues just a week and half before the Tournament started. There's a big asterisk beside that victory. However, we can read a lot from Creighton's win, as the Blue Jays bent, but didn't break. The Blue Jays' numbers on the defensive end are more efficient and I expect that to play a part here as well. I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Creighton. |
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03-21-21 | Oral Roberts v. Florida -8 | Top | 81-78 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: Oral Roberts has been fantastic, but I think its Cindarella run comes to an end tonight. The Golden Eagles most recently go by Ohio State in the first round as 15 point underdogs. Florida though comes off an impressive victory over Virginia Tech as a 1.5 point dog and I think it's superior defensive play, and experience will be just too much Oral Roberts to handle in the second round. The Golden Eagles are great offensively, averaging 81.5 PPG, but they've been poor defensively, conceding 75.6. The pick: Florida averages 74 PPG, while conceding 69.8. There were plenty of BIG upsets in the first round. Both of these teams come in off upsets. Oral Roberts upset win in the first round can absolutely be classified as a "major" upset though. And this then sets it up for a letdown for sure. Look for Florida's depth on both ends of the court to be the difference and lay the points with confidence. This is a 10* SECOND ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on Florida. |
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03-21-21 | Texas Tech -1 v. Arkansas | 66-68 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 20 m | Show | |
The set-up: Texas Tech is 18-10, advancing by beating Utah State 65-53. Arkansas is 23-6 after getting the better of Colgate 85-68. I think the Red Raiders Mac McClung will be a matchup issue for Arkansas today. Texas Tech only allows 63 PPG this year, but just conceded 53 to the Aggies, and there's no reason not to think they won't bring that same intensity here towards the Razorbacks. The pick: Arkansas allows 70.6 PPG, and it just gave up 68 to Colgate. The Red Raiders are well-coachd and experienced and I look for their tough defensive play to be just too much for Arkansas to handle. Lay the the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Texas Tech. |
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03-21-21 | Loyola-Chicago v. Illinois -7 | 71-58 | Loss | -105 | 22 h 19 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is an instate rivalry, but these teams haven't played in over a decade. Illinois cruised by Drexel 78-49 and while I'm not expecting quite as big a blowout here, I do definitely expect Illinois to jump out to a quick lead, one which I expect it to hold onto going into the half-time break. The Ramblers played from behind in their 71-60 win over Georgia Tech last time out, and I think they are in fact "gassed" after that ordeal. The pick: Loyola Chicago's offense simply can't match pace with Illinois. The Illini come from the tough Big Ten as well and I think they'll be out to send a message here today. Note that Illinois is also 7-2 ATS in its last nine after a 25 points or greater win in its last outing. Look for the Fightning Illni to put the foot on the gas to open up the FIRST HALF. This is a 9* FIRST HALF DESTRUCTION on Illinois. |
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03-20-21 | Abilene Christian +9 v. Texas | 53-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: Abilene Christian is 23-4, while Texas is 19-7. The Wildcats have won four in a row, most recently a 34-point victory over Nicholls in the conference tournament game. Abilene Christian is extremely adept defensively and I expect that fact to keep it competitive with the Longhorns late. The pick: Texas has won five in a row, including beating Oklahoma State in the Big 12 title game. Expectations are high for the Longhorns, but note that they're 0-9 ATS in their last nine NCAA Tournament games. The Wildcats are 7-2 ATS in their last nine netural site contests as an underdog in the +8.5 to +11.5 points range as well. The Wildcats have looked like one of the best and most dangerous mid-major teams and I look for them to at the very least, take this one right down to the wire. Grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Albilene Christian. |
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03-20-21 | Ohio v. Virginia -7 | Top | 62-58 | Loss | -110 | 107 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: After seeing a bunch of favorites get the hook early on Friday, the Virginia Cavaliers will be cautious not to follow the same fate here in what is actually a very favorable matchup for them. Note that the Cavs are still the reigning NCAA Champion, because last year's tournament was cancelled. The Cavs had a small COVID issue, and one player will not be at the game today, but they've won seven of their last ten and three in a row. The pick: Ohio has won nine of its last ten games. It's had to deal with COVID issues this year as well. The Bobcats lack the depth and experience a this level though, and note that the Cavs are 10-3 straight-up in their last 13 NCAA Tournament games and 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 after an ATS loss. The Cavs are well-coached and their defense is suffocating. Look for UVA to pull away for a comfortable win and cover on Saturday night. This is a 10* FIRST ROUND GAME OF THE YEAR on UVA. |
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03-20-21 | Stars -181 v. Red Wings | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 30 h 4 m | Show | |
The set-up: Enough is enough for the Stars here, who have lost two in a row and six of their last ten. Dallas fell 4-3 in a shootout at home to Tampa, before then coming up short here 3-2 two nights ago. Now the revenge-minded Stars look to bounce back and improve upon their 8-2 record in trying to avenge a road loss vs. an opponent in which they scored two or less goals in. The pick: After winning three of its last four, and with two nights off before a two-game set in Nashville, all signs point to this finally being a minor letdown spot for suddenly overachieving Detroit. I'm laying the price with confidence, as this one has has blowout written all over it! This is an 8* TOP-SHELF ANNIHILATION on the Stars. |
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03-20-21 | Texas Southern v. Michigan -25.5 | 66-82 | Loss | -110 | 26 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: No upsets here. There were a bunch yesterday obviously, but I expect the Wolverines to come in focussed and to pull away in the second half for a comfortable win and cover. Texas Southern has won ten games in a row, including an eight-point victory over Mount St. Mary's in the FIRST FOUR. The pick: Michigan is 20-4 this year. The Wolverines will come in angry after getting upset by Ohio State in the Big Ten tournament by a point. Wolverines head coach Juwan Howard had this to say of his team's great season in the tough Big Ten Conference: "It's been a great experience for not only players but the coaches as well. All we've dealt with has truly prepared us for this time. Some of the close games that we've had this year, the overtime victory that we've had, a loss during a close game. We've also experienced some games that we've really dominated on both ends of the floor. It's prepared us for this moment." The Wolverines bring a ton of experience here and they're 4-1-1 ATS in their last six NCAA Tournament games as the favorite, while The Tigers are just 2-7-1 ATS in their last ten Saturday games (does that matter? It certainly doesn't help!) Texas Southern ranks 237th in adjusted offensive efficiency, while Michigan ranks seventh. Lay the points. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Michigan. |
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03-19-21 | Blues -137 v. Sharks | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling right now. St. Louis is the better team on paper though and I expect it to finally break its five-game slide here in this favorable matchup. The Blues also play with revenge here after falling 3-2 to the Sharks in their most recent matchup in early March. The pick: San Jose is off a 5-4 loss at Vegas and is just 2-7 in its last nine after a road loss in which it allowed five or more goals in. St. Louis on the other hand is 7-2 in its nine after five or more straight losses in a row. Look for the "better" team to deliver and lay the price. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Blues. |
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03-19-21 | Kings v. Celtics -7 | Top | 107-96 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this one sets up well for the Celtics. Sacramento plays better at home than on the road, and after its 121-119 win oat Washington two nights ago, an inevitable letdown is imminent. Note that not only is it a "letdown" spot for the visiting side, but it's also a "look-ahead" spot as well with a game in Philadelphia tomorrow night. The pick: BOston has lost two in a row and is in desperation mode. The Celtics also play with revenge here after falling 116-111 in Sacramento in early February. It's a perfect set of situational circumstances working in favor of Boston tonight, so lay the points with confidence. This is a 10* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Cetlics. |
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03-19-21 | Cleveland State +20 v. Houston | Top | 56-87 | Loss | -109 | 28 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston smoked Cincinnati in the ACC Tournament Championship game, but I think it'll have its hands full here with this underrated Cleveland State side. The Vikings are the Horizon League Tourney champ after dispatching Oakland 80-69. Cleveland State averages only 69.5 PPG, but it's one of the best on the defensive ends, especially at defending the three-ball, allowing just 30.4 percent from range, which ranks 34th in the country. The pick: Houston allows only 57.6 PPG, while scoring 77.6. Clearly the Cougars are a good team, but note that they're just 1-4 ATS in their last five after scoring 90 or more points in their previous outing. The Vikings on the other hand are 7-1 ATS in their last eight as an underdog and 4-0 ATS in their last four neutral site games. I think the Vikings tough defensive play keeps them competitive late. No outright, but much closer than what this massive spread would suggest. Grab the points. This is a 10* COACHS CORNER on Cleveland State. |
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03-19-21 | Georgia Tech v. Loyola-Chicago -5.5 | 60-71 | Win | 100 | 25 h 46 m | Show | |
The set-up: Georgia Tech finished 17-8. Loyola Chicago finished 24-4. The Yellow Jackets are led by Jose Alvarado and they allow 70 PPG. Loyola Chicago though is led by senior center Cameron Krutwig, who actually helped lead the Ramblers to a Final Four berth in his freshman year in 2018. The pick: The Ramblers own one of the top defenses in the country, conceding just 55.5 PPG. Finally, the Yellow Jackets are going to have play this game without standout Moses Wright as well. While I do think an outright upset is possible, in the end let's grab the points. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Loyola Chicago. |
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