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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-01-18 | Louisville v. Alabama UNDER 60.5 | Top | 14-51 | Loss | -107 | 119 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a neutral site affair and I think points will be at a premium. Louisville was 8-5 last year and it lost 31-27 to Mississippi State in the TaxSalyer Bowl, while Alabama went 13-1 and won the College Football Championship with a 26-23 OT win over Georgia. The teams: The Cardinals were 8-5 last year and only 4-4 in the ACC. Heisman QB Lamar Jackson is gone and there’s also a new defensive coordinator in Brian VanGorder. Louisville was 11th in the FBS in scoring last season, but that was with Jackson. The defense was in the middle though by allowing 27.4 PPG and it will be again this year as well. Jawon Pass is now the main man under center, he has 238 yards and two TD’s for his career. The run game focuses around Dae Williams and Trey Smith. Alabama averaged 37.1 PPG and it allowed just 11.9. Note that seven different time the Tide would hold an opponent to just single digits. Jalen Hurts had 2,081 yards, 17 TD’s, as well as 855 rushing yards and eight more TD’s. The pick: I think the defending champs control this one on both sides of the ball as the Tide look to roll to another National Championship. This one has “chess match,” written all over it. Play the “under.” |
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09-01-18 | Bowling Green +31.5 v. Oregon | Top | 24-58 | Loss | -106 | 119 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: While I obviously don’t think the Bowling Green Falcons will win this one outright, I do think that Oregon will come out a bit flat against its lowly opponent. The teams: The Green Falcons went 2-10 in 2017, but experience at the skill positions should see Bowling Green inch closer to .500 this year. Jarret Doege is back as QB, he had 1,381 yards, 12 TD’s and just three INT’s after taking over half way through. Andrew Clair returns as the top RB, he had a respectable 725 and a 6.8 yards per carry average. The defense was a weak point last year and will be again this season, however it should be a lot better with many starters returning, including Brandon Harris, who had 92 tackles. The Ducks have a Heisman hopeful in QB Justin Hebert, who had 1,983 yards and 15 TD’s and in eight games last year. Oregon has a ton of depth at RB, but filling the void of 5,600 rusher Royce Freeman obviously won’t be easy. Tony Brooks-James had 498 yard rushing last year. Oregon has question marks in the receiving game. It also has five projected defensive starters as sophomores. The pick: With nothing to lose, I think an improved Bowling Green team can keep this one interesting. Or at least somewhat competitive until late in the third. Either way, grab all these points, play on the Falcons. |
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09-01-18 | Cincinnati +16.5 v. UCLA | Top | 26-17 | Win | 100 | 118 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Bearcats and Bruins square off at the famous Rose Bowl on Saturday. UCLA finished 6-6 in 2017 before then losing to Kansas State in the Cactus Bowl. Cincinnati was just 4-8 last year, including only 2-6 in AAC action. The teams: Cincinnati is expecting a much better campaign in 2018/19 though, as QB Hayden Moore is back for his senior year. He finished with 2,561 yards and 20 TD’s in 2017. WR Kahlil Lewis is back and he had 676 yards and seven TD’s, while RB Gerrid Doaks, who missed the final three games of the year with an ankle injury, still led the team with 513 yards on the ground. Many return on the defensive side of the ball as well. UCLA now has to replace QB Josh Rosen, who went to the NFL after his senior year last season. The Bruins’ choices aren’t great (Devon Modster, Wilton Speight, Dorian Thompson-Robinson)
The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Bruins are a terrible 1-8 ATS in their last nine non-conference games as well. Cincinnati has a very real shot at posting an outright upset against the “rudder-less” Bruins, but I will in the end recommend grabbing the points. |
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09-01-18 | UNLV v. USC -26 | Top | 21-43 | Loss | -106 | 115 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: USC has to replace three key offensive pieces, but I think it’ll have more than enough on opening night to bury its overmatched opponent. The teams: UNLV was 5-7 last year, losing to FCS school Howard in its opener as a 45-point favorite. The Runnin Rebels turned things around late by winning three of their final five to finish with a .500 record in league play. Armani Rogers is back under center and he threw for 1,471 yards, six TD’s and also ran for 780 yards. RB Lexington Thomas is back as well and he had 1,336 yards and 17 TD’s last year. The defense was a weakness last season and it’s a bit of a question mark heading into this year with the loss of its top two finishers in tackles to graduation (note that UNLV allowed 31 or more points seven different times last year and it also finished second to last in the nation with just 11 sacks total.) USC was 11-3 last year and it’ll have to replace its No. 1 QB, RB and WR. The battle at QB begins between Matt Fink, Jack Sears and JT Daniels. The Trojans were deep at RB, and now it’s time for the trio of Aca’Cedric Ware, Stephen Carr and Vavae Malaepeai to battle it out on the ground (they combined for 871 yards last year.) The defense was tied atop the FBS with 46 sacks, but its weakness was against the pass, allowing 22 TD’s through the air. The pick: Fortunately for the Trojans though they face a team which is dealing with QB issues of its own. I think the home side defense turns out to be the difference maker in this one. Lay the points and expect a rout.
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09-01-18 | Mets v. Giants OVER 8 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who have seen better days. I think runs will definitely be plentiful in this one with the Mets sending Stephen Matz to the hill and the home side going with Derek Holland. The pitchers: Matz is so far 5-11 with a 4.36 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Nationals on Sunday, giving up one run off five hits with one walk in what turned out to be a loss. Matz has been more “miss” than “hit” this year though, especially on the road where he’s just 4-5 with a 5.53 ERA. Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.65 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits in a win over Texas on Sunday. Holland has been sharp of late, but note that he does own a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day road National League games in which it’s an underdog in the -105 to -135 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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09-01-18 | West Virginia v. Tennessee +9.5 | Top | 40-14 | Loss | -106 | 2041 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Jeremy Pruitt is the new head coach of the Tennessee Vols and he’ll have his hands full right out of the gate with WVU up first. Note that this is a neutral site game at Charlotte and this is the first time ever that the programs have battled each other. The teams: The Mountaineers finished the 2017 season with a 7-5 record. WVU will be led by Will Grier under center, as he returns for his senior season. The Vols are coming off a 4-8 season. QB Keller Chryst is going to be leaned upon heavily here to bring stability to the offense. Tennessee also picked up RB’s Chance Hall and Trey Smith, who should keep opposing defenses honest. Receiver Jauan Jennings is a difference maker and I think he’ll get his opportunities against WVU. Jennings will be out to prove himself after he broke his wrist in the 2017 season opener. The pick: This is a very early release. As game time approaches, I plan to update my analysis. However, I do indeed believe that the stage is set for a competitive affair. WVU knows how to put points on the board, but its defense was its achilles heel last year. The Mountaineers may even be caught “looking past” their lowly opponent to its difficult upcoming schedule and in this neutral site affair. While I’ll stop short in calling for the outright upset, I’m banking on a tighter than expected battle. Grab the points, play on the Vols. |
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09-01-18 | Oregon State v. Ohio State UNDER 64 | Top | 31-77 | Loss | -106 | 111 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the Pac-12 and Big Ten on Saturday afternoon. Oregon State was just 1-11 last year, while Ohio State went 12-2. The Buckeyes would go on to beat USC 24-7 in the Cotton Bowl and I believe the tooth-less Beavers will have difficulty moving the sticks this afternoon as well. The teams: Last year Oregon State put up just 20.7 PPG, while allowing 43. QB Jake Luton had 853 yards, four TD’s and four INT’s. Artavis Pierce was the standout on the ground with 323 yards and a TD. The Buckeyes beat Wisconsin in the Big Ten title game and then smoked USC in the Cotton Bowl. Seven starters return to an offense which averaged 41.1 points. The defense was ranked 15th overall, allowing only 19 PPG. QB Dwayne Haskins had 565 yards and four TD’s. The pick: Oregon State hasn’t had a winning season since 2013 and the Beavers are going to have their hands full again in 2018/19. Ohio State will look to control this one while on offense with its devastating ground attack, while also shutting the Beavers down from start to finish. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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09-01-18 | Texas -13 v. Maryland | Top | 29-34 | Loss | -110 | 111 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m expecting a blowout here. The Longhorns went just 7-6 last year, but they return 14 players. Maryland has off-season issues to deal with, including the tragic death of right guard Jordan McNair due to heat stroke in June during drills. With the Terps’ minds on “other” things right now, look for Texas to break this one wide open. The teams: Texas starts QB Sam Ehlinger, who is 6’ 3” 240 LBS. Last year he had 1,915 yards, 11 TD’s and seven picks while also running for 385 yards and two more scores. Overall Texas averaged 29.5 PPG and the defense made massive strides last season by allowing only 21.2 PPG. Overall the ‘Horns ranked second in the Big 12 and eighth in the country in rush defense. Many defensive starters return and the unit will clearly be a strength of the team this year as well. With the death of McNair, the entire coaching staff had to be let go in the wake of the scandal for the poor Terps. Maryland was 4-8 overall last year and finished near the bottom of every category both offensively and defensively (allowed 37 PPG.) The pick: Texas will have plenty of fans from Landover and I think the ‘Horns can smell the blood in the water. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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09-01-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Oklahoma -21 | Top | 14-63 | Win | 100 | 111 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Conf. USA is on the road to take on the Big 12, as the FAU Owls are big underdogs against the Oklahoma Sooners on Saturday afternoon. Both teams come off big 2018’s, as FAU was 11-3, while Oklahoma went 12-2 and it lost to Georgia 54-48 in the Rose Bowl. The teams: FAU had a great year in Lane Kiffin’s first year as coach. But even more so than the Sooners today, the Owls have a major transition period upcoming after QB Jason Driskel moved on. That means that De’Andre Johnson, Chris Robinson or Rafe Peavey will all see time under center. The rest of the offense remains loaded in talent. Baker Mayfield is gone for the Sooners, meaning that Kyler Murray (18 of 21 for 359 yards, three TD’s and 142 rushing yards last year) becomes the “main man.” The defense was a strength last season for Oklahoma, allowing 27.1 points and it should only be better this year with many key pieces returning. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oklahoma is 11-2 ATS in its last 13 at home and 4-1 ATS in its last five non-conference games, while FAU is a poor 0-8 ATS in its last eight against the Big 12 Conference. No Mayfield, ho problem! Look for the Sooners’ wealth of depth be just too much for the Owls to handle on opening weekend. Lay the points. |
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08-31-18 | Utah State +24 v. Michigan State | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 94 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the Mountain West Conference on the road to East Lansing, Michigan to take on the Spartans. Note that this is the first ever meeting between the schools. Last year Utah State was 6-7, while Michigan State went 10-3. The teams: Utah State finished with a losing record, but it was enough for a Bowl spot (lost 26-20 to New Mexico State in the Arizona Bowl.) Note though that the Aggies return 52 of 67 lettermen back, including nine starters on each side of the ball. Utah State averaged 30.2 PPG last season with Jordan Love going for 1,631 yards, eight TD’s and six INT’s. The defense was a weak point, but seven of the unit’s top eight tacklers return and their linebacking corp rates as second best in the Conference. In the end the defense allowed 26.9 PPG. The Spartans averaged 24.5 PPG and allowed 20.0. QB Brian Lewerke is back and he had 2,793 yards with 20 TD’s and seven INT’s. Michigan State also returns its top three receivers. Last season the secondary was ranked 7th in the country and the defense will be a strength this year as well. The pick: I think this sets up as a bit of a trap for Michigan State though. The Aggies come in under the radar and their high-octane offense, combined with their experienced defensive unit makes the visitors the correct call here. Grab the points. |
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08-31-18 | Rays v. Indians -1.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I think that Corey Kluber and the Indians on the “run line” are the correct call in this particular match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Glasnow this evening. The pitchers: Glasnow is so far 1-3 with a 4.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Thursday. Glasnow has been serviceable this season, but note that he’s a terrible 1-2 with a 5.85 ERA on the road. Kluber is 16-7 with a 2.91 ERA. Kluber comes in off perhaps the worst start of his career, giving up five runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings in a loss to the Royals on Saturday. The pick: No reason to hit the panic button if you’re a Kluber fan though, who is 8-3 with a 2.24 ERA at home. Take it for what you will as well, but the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine night home contests in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs and expect a blowout. |
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08-31-18 | Tigers v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Jordan Zimmermann, while the home side goes with Luis Severino. The pitchers: Zimmermann is so far 6-6 with a 4.38 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings, striking out five and picking up a win over the Cubs on Tuesday. For the most part the veteran has been solid this year, especially on the road with a 3-2, 2.34 ERA in all “night” games. Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.27 ERA. He’s been a bit shaky of late, but overall Severino is enjoying a tremendous season. Note that he’s 9-2 with a tiny 2.73 ERA in “home” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 18 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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08-31-18 | Army v. Duke -13 | Top | 14-34 | Win | 100 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the fourth straight season that these teams have met. Duke finished over .500 last year and it’s going to expect an even bigger step this season. Army comes in off one of its best campaigns of all time, which included a victory over Navy in the annual Army/Navy game. Regression does seem imminent though for a unit which has seen a lot of turnover. The teams: Army also got the better of SDSU in the Armed Forces Bowl and finished 10-3 overall. Offensive leader Ahmad Bradshaw is gone though, meaning that Kelvin Hopkins will be leaned upon. Andy Davidson and Darnell Woolfolk are back and they combined for 1,439 rushing yards and 19 TD’s. Overall the defense ranked 32nd and the unit will once again be the strength of the team this season. Duke is led by QB Daniel Jones, who had 14 TD’s and 11 picks last year (both worse than when he was a freshman). You’ll also want to keep your eyes on WR TJ Rahming, who had 65 snags for 800 yards last season. The pick: Both teams have key playmakers on both sides of the ball to replace this year. Opening up the season on the road against a Power Five opponent is tough though and I think Army will stumble in its first test. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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08-30-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers -129 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -129 | 29 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this particular matchup. The visitors hand the ball to Robbie Ray, while the home side goes with Rich Hill. The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.73 ERA. After going 15-5 with a 2.89 ERA last season, 2018 has been a grind for Ray. He’s coming off a decent outing against the light-hitting Reds on Saturday, but note that he’s still owns a poor 5.57 ERA in all “night” games. Hill is so far 6-4 with a 3.50 ERA. The veteran comes in off back-to-back gems, posting a tiny 1.38 EA over his last 30 frames of work. Hill has to be feeling pretty confident here as well as note that he’s 6-3 with a very respectable 3.01 ERA in all night games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is now 7-3 in its last ten night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -175 range. I like Hill to continue his end of season surge and I look for Ray to get the hook early. Lay the price. |
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08-30-18 | Wake Forest -6.5 v. Tulane | Top | 23-17 | Loss | -110 | 71 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a non-conference match-up between two schools with big expectations. For a number of different reasons though, I think Wake Forest will pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover. The teams: Wake Forest returns 15 starters in total this year, including nine on offense. After finishing 8-5 last season, Wake is expecting to at least duplicate that mark this year. The offense averaged 35.3 PPG in 2017 and overall the Demon Deacons would go on to beat six teams that would wind up going to a Bowl game. Freshman Sam Harman had 9,481 yards and 98 touchdowns in high school and he’s expected to make a big impact in this offense. Tulane returns seven starters on offense from a year ago, a unit which wound up averaging 27.5 PPG. Jon Banks is now a senior and the QB will once again be leaned upon heavily. Note that Banks was the second leading rusher on the team last season as well. The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Green Wave are a terrible 1-6 ATS in their last seven against the ACC, while the Demon Deacons are a superb 10-4 ATS in the last 14 road contests. Wake had one of the ACC’s top offenses last year and with so many key players returning, they could be even better this season. Tulane will put up a fight for the first half, but expect the Demon Deacons to put the foot on the gas in the second. Lay the points.
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08-30-18 | Central Florida v. Connecticut +23.5 | Top | 56-17 | Loss | -110 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a match-up of the AAC’s East Division and while I’m clearly not going to call for an outright upset, I do definitely think that the Huskies can keep this one competitive. The teams: UCF was 13-0 last year, finishing with a 34-27 victory over Auburn in the Peach Bowl. McKenzie Milton is back under center for the Knights this year, he had 4,037 yards and 37 TD’s last season. The ground game is also strong with Adrian Killins Jr. and Dredrick Snelson. UConn was 3-9 last year, it’s seventh straight losing season. Randy Edsall has taken over as head coach and he’ll be looking for a much better showing in 2018/19 (obviously). David Pindell is now the man under center, last year he had 937 yards, four TD’s, six INT’s and 289 rushing yards with another four rushing TD’s. RB Nate Hopkins had 343 yards and seven TD’s. The pick: Not surprisingly, this is a revenge game for the Huskies, who have lost two in a row in the series, including a 49-24 road setback last November. UConn though returns several starters on each line and I think that’s going to make a big difference in the early going. UCF has a favorable 2018/19 schedule, with another “cream puff” in Week 2 against South Carolina State. I ultimately believe that UCF comes out a bit complacent, leaving the back door open just wide enough for the hungry Huskies to sneak in through down the stretch. Grab the points. |
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08-30-18 | Dolphins v. Falcons | Top | 34-7 | Loss | -107 | 44 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 0-3 as we head into the final week of the preseason. Does either even care what happens in Week 4? Probably not. So where’s the advantage? For this meaningless contest, I don’t think that the home field advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor. Miami lost 27-10 to Baltimore last week, while Atlanta fell 17-6 to the Jags. The teams: Miami QB Ryan Tannehill looked decent last week, going 11 of 16 for 115 yards and a touchdown. Backup Brock Osweiler though struggled, going for 23 yards and one interception. With Tannehill shelved in Week 4, the battle between Osweiler and David Fales continues (Fales has been horrible as well with a 0:2 TD/INT through three games.) Atlanta struggled against the Jags’ aggressive defensive attack last week. Matt Ryan was just 5 of 12 for 57 yards. Ryan won’t be suiting up today, meaning Matt Schaub will see the majority of time under center. So far Schaub is 20 of 26 for 194 yards and a TD in the preseason. The pick: Note that this is a revenge game of sorts after the Fish bested the Falcons 20-17 last October. I think Schaub continues his decent preseason and I look for Atlanta to find a way to get the job done for the home town crowd at the end of the night. Lay the points.
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08-30-18 | Browns v. Lions +2 | Top | 35-17 | Loss | -100 | 44 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit is 1-2 so far in the preseason, while Cleveland is 2-1. I think the Browns simply go through the motions today though as they look ahead to Week 1. Conversely, I believe the Lions will be looking for a little more momentum as they head into the Regular season and as such, I expect them to pull away down the stretch for the comfortable ATS cover in front of the home town crowd. The teams: The Browns come in off a very satisfying win over the defending champion Eagles at home in Week 3. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Baker Mayfield will see the majority of snaps today. Last week he was 8 of 12 for 76 yards, while RB Nick Chubb added 46 rushing yards. Matt Stafford won’t be suiting up for Detroit, meaning Matt Cassel and Jake Rudock will continue to battle it out for the official No. 1 backup QB spot. Cassel and Rudock though looked great in last week’s come from behind 33-30 win, combining to go 16 of 23 for 118 yards and two touchdowns. The pick: As mentioned off the top, I think Cleveland is already “looking ahead” to the “real thing.” The Lions will look to take advantage and send the home side crowd home happy on Thursday night. Lay the points. |
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08-29-18 | Pirates v. Cardinals -168 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -168 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. That said, I think Miles Mikolas will find a way to get the job done in front of the home town crowd tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams. The pitchers: Williams is so far 10-9 with a 3.44 ERA. For the most part Williams has completely exceeded expectations for Pittsburgh this year, but if the big right-hander has had one clear area of weakness, it’s definitely been his play on the road where he owns a pedestrian 4.01 ERA. Mikolas is so far 13-3 with a 2.94 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off 12 hits over 4.2 innings in a no-decision to St. Louis on Friday. It was arguably the worst start of his career, so I’m not going to over-react to one poor effort. Note that despite the shoddy performance he still owns a sharp 2.94 ERA and elite 1.09 WHIP The pick: Also note that Mikolas is a “lights out” 6-3 with a 2.13 ERA at home this season. I’m banking on Mikolas bouncing back in a big way in front of the home town crowd tonight. Lay the price. |
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08-29-18 | Houston Dynamo v. New York Red Bulls -200 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: This line should be a lot larger in my professional opinion. New York is undefeated in five matches and it currently sits in second place in the Eastern Conference. The Dynamo on the other hand are winless in five straight. In fact Houston lost four straight, before managing a very satisfying “draw” against Dallas last time out. The pick: Bradley Wright-Phillips failed to score in the win against DC United last time out, and things won’t get any easier in this difficult venue either. Both teams have injuries, but the Red Bulls’ main offensive weapons in Alberth Elis and Mauro Manotas will both be in the line-up tonight. And that’s good enough for me, lay the price and expect a blowout. |
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08-29-18 | Rays v. Braves -148 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -148 | 23 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This one has “blowout” written all over it. The massive talent-gap on the mound tonight makes Sean Newcomb and the hard-hitting home side well worth the price of admission. The visitors hand the ball to Diego Castillo. The pitchers: Castillo is so far 3-2 with a 3.23 ERA. Castillo has been decent in his limited time on the mound, but so far the rookie has been under a strict pitch count each time he’s gone to the hill. And that won’t change here either in this difficult National League venue. Newcomb is so far 11-6 with a 3.57 ERA. He most recently allowed two hits while striking out eight over six scoreless in a victory over the Marlins on Thursday. Newcomb had struggled previous to this outing, but the southpaw definitely got back on track with this latest effort. The pick: Note as well that Newcomb has been “lights out” in this spot all season with an 8-3, 2.77 ERA in all “night” games. I believe Castillo gets the hook early and I look for Newcomb to build off his last start. Play on the Braves. |
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08-29-18 | Marlins v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 6-14 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound today absolutely justifies in laying the 1.5 runs and taking the home side on the “run-line.” The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Richards, while the home side goes with David Price. The pitchers: Richards is so far 3-7 with a 4.23 ERA. He’s coming off a couple of sub-par outings and note that he’s been particularly feeble on the road this season with a 1-4, 5.74 ERA. Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.50 ERA. He most recently went eight scoreless against the Tribe on Thursday, striking out seven and allowing just three hits in the commanding performance. The pick: Price has arguably been the hottest pitcher in all of baseball over the second half, posting a tiny 1.09 ERA and an impressive 40:7 K/BB over six starts. I believe the veteran continues his end of season progression with another gem. Play on the Red Sox on the “run line.” |
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08-29-18 | Tigers v. Royals OVER 8.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 104 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two starters who have seen better days. I absolutely think that each will get the hook early, which will ultimately help in pushing this total “over,” sooner rather than later. The visitors go with Mike Fulmer, while the home side goes with Danny Duffy. The pitchers: Fulmer is so far 3-9 with a 4.32 ERA. He looked decent against the tooth-less White Sox in his first start back from the DL last week, but overall it’s been a disappointing season for Fulmer, who is just 2-3 with a terrible 5.51 ERA on the road. Duffy is so far 7-11 with a 4.85 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off six hits with two walks while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the light-hitting Rays on Thursday. It was his first start back from the DL as well. Note that in two starts prior to getting injured he was shelled for 12 earned runs over 10.1 innings in early August. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine road day games in which the line in the contest is set between +125 and -125. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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08-28-18 | Rockies -130 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The pitchers: Freeland is so far 11-7 with a 2.96 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits over seven innings while also going on to strike out seven in a victory over the Padres on Thursday. To go along with his highly respectable ERA, Freeland also owns a shape 136:57 K/BB over 158.1 innings this season. Ramirez is 4-4 with a 4.69 ERA. He’s been recalled from the minors to make this start and while the sky could in fact be the limit for Ramirez, there’s no question that he draws a difficult match-up in the Rockies’ dangerous hitting line-up. The pick: Freeland’s the correct call here. Ramirez gets chased early and I look for visiting side to take full advantage. Lay the price. |
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08-28-18 | A's v. Astros OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -103 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this total will sneak “over” before the end. The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, while the home side goes with Charlie Morton. The pitchers: Jackson is so far 4-3 with a 2.97 ERA. He most recently was shelled for four runs off seven hits over 4.1 innings, striking out two and walking three in a loss to the Rangers on Wednesday. After finishing a poor 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA last year, it would seem as if Jackson is now finally starting to “regress to the norm.” Morton is so far 13-3 with a 3.05 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over five innings in a no-decision to these very A’s on Friday. Morton’s been solid across the board, but note that the Astros have seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine night home games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -250 range. The pick: I think Jackson’s early sparkling numbers are unsustainable and I believe his latest poor performance is the start of what will end up becoming a massive decline to end the season. Morton has been sharp, but I like the Astros’ dangerous hitting line-up to produce some runs this evening. This number is a little low, play the “over.”
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08-28-18 | Nationals v. Phillies OVER 7 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I had a play on the “under” when these two squared off against each other last week in the Phillies’ eventual late inning victory. Clearly these are two of the best in the World going head-to-head, but I think these talented hitting line-ups will produce just enough offense this time around to push the total above this tiny number. The pitchers: Max Scherzer is 16-6 with a 2.13 ERA. He gave up two runs off two hits with four walks while striking out ten over seven innings in the 2-0 loss to Philadelphia last week. Aaron Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.13 ERA. He went eight scoreless against the Nats and he’s now gone 3-0 while posting 25 strikeouts over his last 21 innings of work. The pick: Clearly it’s impossible to say anything negative about either of these guys. But note that the Phillies have seen the total go “over” the number in eight of their last ten night home games as an underdog in the +100 to +175 range. This number is just a little low, play the “over.” |
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08-28-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles OVER 9.5 | Top | 5-12 | Win | 105 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of match-ups with relative “no names” going head to head on the mound and this is obviously one of them. I think runs will be plentiful this evening. The visitors go with Thomas Pannone, while the home side goes with Josh Rogers. The pitchers: Pannone is so far 1-0 with a 1.59 ERA. He made three appearances out of the bullpen for his major league debut last week, but he’s been recalled now to make his very first start. Clearly the sky is the limit for Pannone, but I think he’ll take a small step back in this difficult venue. Ramirez was supposed to get the start here, but Baltimore has made a late Tuesday morning change to Josh Rogers, who makes his MLB season debut today. The sky may be the limit for Rogers, but I think he’ll struggle against this difficult and determined opponent. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night road games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I’m banking on these starting pitchers getting chased early and for this total going “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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08-27-18 | Diamondbacks -172 v. Giants | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -172 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this one of them. I definitely think that Patrick Corbin and the hard-hitting visiting side are well worth the price of admission tonight. The home side sends Chris Stratton to the hill. The pitchers: Corbin is so far 10-4 with a 3.17 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with two walks while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. He’d go on to induce 18 swings and misses and over four starts in August he’s 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 32:2 K/BB. Stratton is so far 8-7 with a 5.37 ERA. He most recently comes in off a mediocre outing against the Mets on Tuesday. Stratton remains in the rotation out of necessity. Note that he owns a poor 6.29 ERA at home so far. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Fran is just 2-7 in its last nine night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. I don’t expect any upsets in this one, play on the Diamondbacks.
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08-27-18 | A's v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 4-11 | Loss | -102 | 19 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Anderson, while the home side goes with Gerritt Cole. The pitchers: Anderson is so far 3-3 with a 3.47 ERA. He most recently went seven shutout innings against the Rangers on Tuesday, giving up a single hit and striking out six. Anderson has now worked back to back shutout seven frame performances and he’s won three of his last four starts overall, posting a tiny 0.68 ERA over 26.2 frames of work this month. Cole is so far 11-5 with a 2.73 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs while striking out seven over five innings in a no-decision to the Mariners on Monday. Note that Cole is a sharp 5-2 with a 2.67 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Houston has now seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little high considering how well these starters are performing at the moment, play the “under.”
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08-27-18 | Tottenham Hotspur +195 v. Manchester United | Top | 3-0 | Win | 195 | 27 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: Tottenham hasn’t scored at Old Trafford in its last four league games there, but I think that’s going to change this afternoon. Man-U signed Paul Pogba and Romelu Lukaku, but so far they’ve under performed. The teams: Pogba has scored penalties in each of the first two games for Man-U in the Premier League season. But after beating Leicester 2-1 at Old Trafford, Man-U enters off a shocking 3-2 loss to Brighton. I think this sets up as another letdown spot here. Harry Kane has a goal so far for Tottenham over the first two games. Kieran Trippier also had a goal in the victory at Fulham last weekend. Now 2-0 on the season after beating Newcastle 2-1 in the first game, I think the Spurs carry that momentum over here. The pick: Manchester United is dealing with significant injuries and with its star players still suffering from a World Cup hangover. The Spurs have a poor record at Old Trafford, but they come in on better form and catch Man U struggling. In my professional opinion, this is the very definition of “great line value.” Play on Tottenham.
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08-26-18 | Yankees v. Orioles OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -111 | 12 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. When it’s all said and done though, I look for this total to eclipse the posted number. The visitors hand the ball to Luis Severino, while the home side goes with Dylan Bundy. The teams: Severino is so far 16-6 with a 3.28 ERA. After an almost unstoppable start to the 2018 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth over the last month and a half, but he does enter off a decent start against the punch-less White Sox. Severino has been elite, but note he does possess a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road. Bundy is so far 7-12 with a 5.31 ERA. The veteran finished 13-9 with a 4.24 ERA last year, but he’s been a complete disaster this season. Especially at home where he is a poor 4-6 with a 5.87 ERA. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “over” the number in 14 of its last 22 night home games in which it’s an underdog in the +150 to +250 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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08-26-18 | Cardinals v. Cowboys OVER 40.5 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -101 | 31 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams that find themselves at the opposite ends of the spectrum early collide in Week 3 of the NFLX preseason. The Cards are 2-0 after beating the Saints 20-15 last week, while the Cowboys are 0-2 after falling 21-13 at home to Cincinnati in Week 2. I think Dallas is going to open up the playbook tonight though and with the Cards matching pace, I look for this total to sneak over before the end. The teams: Sam Bradford started for the Cards last week and he went 6 for 6 for 61 yards. Rookie Josh Rosen then went 10 of 16 for 107 yards and a TD. Chad Kanoff took over at the end and he went 5 of 10 for 43 yards. The defense looked sharp, but note that New Orleans’ star QB Drew Brees did not receive a single snap as the veteran wasn’t risked in the meaningless contest. I think Arizona will have a much more difficult time against a first string offense this week. Dak Prescott was 10 of 15 for 88 yards a TD last week for the Cowboys, while Mike White was 8 of 16 for 76 yards. Note that RB Ezekiel Elliot is expected to see some time tonight as well. Clearly the Cowboys would love to get off the schneid with a victory tonight for the home town crowd. The pick: I’m not convinced whatsoever that the Cards are as good as their 2-0 record would indicate and I don’t think the Cowboys are as bad as their 0-2 mark would point to either. But I do think that Dallas puts the foot on the gas from start to finish and with the visitors needing to match pace, expect this total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later.
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08-26-18 | Mariners v. Diamondbacks -169 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I don’t expect Zack Greinke to have a letdown here, as he’s consistently been at this best at home. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Leake in this one. The teams: Leake is so far 8-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Leake missed his last start due to an illness and while he’s been decent overall this year, one has to wonder if the veteran has completely recovered at this point? Greinke is so far 12-8 with a 3.06 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs with seven strikeouts over six innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Sunday. Greinke continues to grind out consistent results, along with his very respectable ERA he also has a sharp 165:32 K/BB. The pick: As mentioned off the top, Greinke has been a lot better at home this year (5-3, 2.34) than on the road (7-5, 3.76). And take it for what you will, but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. No upsets here, lay the price. |
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08-26-18 | Phillies v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups and this is one of them in my opinion. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this inter-league contest on Sunday. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Marco Estrada. The teams: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.06 ERA. While he’s struggled a bit of late, overall the hard-throwing right-hander has been solid overall this year, especially on the road where he owns a sharp 2.77 ERA to this point. Estrada is so far 7-9 with a 4.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back decent outings and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games this season with a 2-2, 3.11 ERA. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Blue Jays have seen the total go “under” the number in eight of their last 11 day home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is too high, play the “under.” |
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08-25-18 | Wyoming -3.5 v. New Mexico State | Top | 29-7 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This inter-conference clash is happening on Saturday night from the Aggie Memorial Stadium. Wyoming was 8-5 overall last year, which culminated in a 37-14 win over CMU in the Potato Bowl, while New Mexico State was 7-6 last season, capped off by a victory over Utah State in the Arizona Bowl. The teams: Josh Allen is gone in Wyoming, but I still love the Cowboys here. Nick Smith and Tyler Vander Waal are now fighting for the No. 1 spot and each will see time under center tonight. Kellen Overstreet had 481 rushing yards on 108 carries last year and he’ll be splitting duties with Trey Woods. The offense will have some growing pains to work through, but fortunately the defense remains elite, as eight starters return, including LB Logan Wilson, who had 111 tackles last season (the Cowboys held the opposition to just 17.5 PPG, ranked ninth in the nation.) The Aggeis are now an Independent school. New Mexico State also has an early QB battle going on between Matthew Romero and favorite Nick Jeanty. RB Jason Huntley will be leaned upon heavily this season to alleviate some of that pressure from these young QB’s. Without QB Jake Rogers though, I think New Mexico State will have a hard time duplicating last year’s high-flying offensive passing numbers. Seven starters return on the defensive side and the unit should be improved over last year’s mediocre group. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but New Mexico State is 0-4 ATS in its last four on “turf,” while Wyoming is 4-1 ATS in its last five played on “turf.” I like the Cowboys’ QB’s a lot better in this match-up and it goes without saying that Wyoming’s defense is by far superior. Lay the points.
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08-25-18 | Astros -170 v. Angels | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this one of them. For a number of different reasons though, i think this one favors Justin Verlander and the defending champs. The home side sends Jaime Barria to the hill tonight. The pitchers: Verlander is so far 12-8 with a 2.65 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings and he appears to once again be getting stronger as the season wears on. Verlander surely has to be feeling confident here as he’s 10-2 with a tiny 2.09 ERA on the road this year. Barria is so far 8-7 with a 3.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off seven hits while striking out five over five innings in a no-decision to the Rangers on Sunday. Over his last 20.2 innings he’s given up just five earned runs, but note that he’s still just 6-6 with a 4.01 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 8-3 in its last 11 night road games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Verlander to come in focused and to easily out-duel Barria. Lay the price.
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08-25-18 | Saints v. Chargers -133 | Top | 36-7 | Loss | -133 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 1-1 after two weeks of the 2018 NFL preseason. Despite Saints’ QB Drew Brees seeing his very first action of the preseason, I think the home side is the correct call here. The teams: Taysom Hill and Tom Savage will be fighting for the backup QB position for New Orleans after Brees exits after the first quarter. Hill was 11 of 15 for 68 yards, while Savage was 6 of 7 for 53 (also getting sacked three times) in last week’s 20-15 loss to Arizona. Chargers’ veteran QB Philip Rivers has already played a lot in the pre-season and I think that’s a major benefit for the home side here. Last week in the 24-14 win over the Seahawks he was 6 of 7 for 62 yards. Geno Smith was 6 of 8 for 85 yards and a TD, while also adding two 14 yard scrambles. The pick: I think Brees comes in rusty in his very first live action play and I look for Rivers and the hungry home side to send the fans home happy. Play on LA on the money-line.
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08-25-18 | Pirates v. Brewers UNDER 8.5 | Top | 9-1 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. Runs are going to be at a premium tonight in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Jameson Taillon, while the home side goes with Jhoulys Chacin. The pitchers: Taillon is so far 9-9 with a 3.58 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the Cubs on Sunday. Taillon hasn’t been perfect, but he’s been very consistent, especially on the road with a solid 3.18 ERA. Chacin is so far 13-4 with a 3.58 ERA. He most recently gave up four hits and no walks while striking out three over six scoreless in a victory over St. Louis on Sunday. Chacin has won five of his last six trips to the hill and he ranks third in the NL with 13 victories. The pick: I think Taillon and Chacin will battle deep into this game and as such, I’m playing the “under.”
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08-25-18 | Red Sox v. Rays OVER 8.5 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I’m expecting this total to sneak over the number by the end of the game. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Ryan Yarbrough. The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-6 with a 4.14 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the Indians and while’s been strong overall this season, note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.91 ERA in all “night” games. Yarbrough is so far 12-5 with a 3.84 ERA. He has been “hit or miss” over the last month though and while the rookie has clearly exceeded expectations to this point, I’ll point out that he still owns a rather “ho hum” 4.14 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine as night road favorite in the -125 to -200 range, while Tampa has seen the total go “over” in ten of its last 17 night home games as an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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08-25-18 | Titans v. Steelers UNDER 44 | Top | 6-16 | Win | 100 | 17 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Tennessee enters off a 30-14 home loss to Tampa Bay, while Pittsburgh comes in off a humbling 51-34 road loss in Green Bay. Both teams looked horrible defensively last week and despite each side starting most of their main offensive players today, I think we’re going to see a lower-scoring “under” once it’s all said and done. The teams: The Titans will be eager to reverse their fortunes in the all important Week 3 contest, as they’re so far 0-2 in the pre-season. QB Marcus Mariota has been solid in his limited time by going 4 of 7 for 80 yards and TD, while backup Blaine Gabbert has 116 passing yards and one TD. With the first team defense on the field today, I’m expecting a much more concerted effort on that side of the ball this week (and that goes for both teams.) Steelers’ backup QB Mason Rudolph was 5 of 11 for 47 yards, one TD and one INT last week. WR James Washington had four catches for 92 yards. RB James Conner was a standout as well with 57 yards on five carries. Clearly the defense was a disaster, but as mentioned off the top, I’m expecting a much better effort overall from this talented first team Steeler defensive unit. The pick: Two teams hungry for a win and off an embarrassing blowout loss from the week before? I love the under here.
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08-24-18 | Indians v. Royals UNDER 9 | Top | 4-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. I believe runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with Brad Keller. The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 9-7 with a 3.25 ERA. He comes in off a gem against the Orioles on Sunday, allowing no runs off seven hits with seven strikeouts over six innings in the victory. So far Clevinger has 155 strikeouts over 157.2 frames of work. Also note that he owns a sharp 2.75 ERA on the road this season. Keller is so far 6-5 with a 3.32 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong starts and note that the rookie has been at his best at home with the 3-1, 3.20 ERA to this point. The pick: Neither of these guys is running out of gas, in fact each looks as if they’re getting stronger as the season is wearing on. I find absolutely no reason whatsoever not to believe that these two can’t carry that momentum over again here. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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08-24-18 | A's -129 v. Twins | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 12 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Sean Manaea and the hard-hitting A’s. The visitors hand the ball to Jake Odorizzi. The pitchers: Manaea is so far 11-9 with a 3.70 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off nine hits in a rare “dud” of a performance in a setback to Houston on Sunday. He’s been scuffling a bit of late, but Manaea still owns a sharp 3.70 ERA and 1.07 WHIP. And note that he’s been particularly good on the road with the 6-3, 3.50 ERA record. Odorizzi is so far 5-7 with a 4.55 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to the Tigers on Sunday. It was the fifth straight start in which he’s failed to pitch a full six frames. The pick: Note as well that Odorizzi owns a poor 5.52 ERA at home this season. I like Manaea to get back on track here after a couple of sub-par performances and to continue his strong play away from friendly confines, while I look for Odorrizi to continue his shoddy form in front of the home town crowd. Play on Oakland. |
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08-24-18 | Seahawks +3.5 v. Vikings | Top | 20-21 | Win | 100 | 95 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I simply feel that the Seahawks are going to be the “hungrier” team tonight. The Hawks are 0-2 in the preseason so far, while Minnesota is 1-1. The teams: Seattle fell 19-17 to Indianapolis in Week 1 and then lost 24-14 at LA last week. Russell Wilson has been decent in his limited time so far in the preseason with 236 yards and a TD, while the other offensive standout is David Moore, who has 106 receiving yards on four catches. The defense was supposed to be a weak point for the Hawks this year, but so far it’s been decent by allowing 293.5 YPG, including only 167.5 through the air. Minnesota beat Denver 42-28 in Week 1, before then taking a step back in last week’s 14-10 loss to the Jaguars. The Vikes offense struggled against the Jags backup defensive unit and I think it’ll have its hands full with this “under the radar” Hawks defense as well. Note that QB Kirk Cousins was just 3 of 8 for 12 yards. Minnesota’s defense looked sharp and it’ll be a strength of the team this year for sure. The pick: Seattle’s first two weeks of the preseason have been building to this moment and I think the Hawks come to play today. Cousins and the offense struggled last week for the Vikings and it’s not going to get any easier facing Seattle’s defensive starters. I’m not calling for the outright upset, but I am grabbing as many points as I can.
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08-24-18 | Giants +2.5 v. Jets | Top | 22-16 | Win | 100 | 94 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: Week 3 of the NFL Preseason sees the Giants hit the road to MetLife Stadium to take on the Jets and for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors the Giants. The teams: The Giants come in with a ton of momentum after knocking off the Lions 30-17 in Week 2. And that was with Eli Manning, Saquon Barkley and Odell Beckham Jr. sitting on the sidelines. QB Davis Webb was 14 of 20 for 140 yards and a TD. Even without Barkley in the backfield the Giants’ run game looked sharp, with Wayne Gallman, Kyle Lauletta and Robert Martin all with a rushing touchdown. The Jets are 1-1 in the preseason, most recently coming off a disheartening 15-13 road loss at Washington. QB Sam Darnold was mediocre by going 8 of 11 for 61 yards and an INT. Backup Teddy Bridgewater was 17 of 23 for 212 yards, two touchdowns and an INT. The pick: The Giants looked good with their offensive stars on the sideline last week, but now Manning, Barkley and Odell are expected to see some snaps in Week 3. And despite Bridgewater clearly outplaying Darnold last week, the Jets are expected to instead give the rookie considerable time under center tonight. I like the veteran players of the Giants to step up early and believe that’ll be enough in the end. |
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08-24-18 | Broncos v. Redskins -2.5 | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver travels to the Nation’s capital looking for an identity on both sides of the ball. The Redskins have many questions marks as well, but I think Washington’s superior strength at the QB position will prove to be the difference in this Week 3 preseason contest. The teams: Denver enters off a deflating 24-23 loss to the Bears on Saturday. Backup QB Paxton Lynch was 5 of 11 for 39 yards. QB Chad Kelly was 7 of 9 for 90 yards and a TD. RB Phillip Lindsay was a bright spot though with 32 yards. Defensively the Broncos looked terrible and I think they’ll have their hands full again here in this difficult venue. Washington comes in with momentum after a 15-13 win over the Jets in Week 2. Alex Smith was 4 of 6 for 48 yards, while the combination of Kevin Hogan and Colt McCoy would go 19 of 27 for 198 yards. The pick: The Broncos have major QB questions. The Redskins don’t. No need to overthink this one in my opinion as I look for the home side to play like the “hungrier” team and to find a way to get the job done in the end. |
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08-24-18 | Phillies v. Blue Jays +1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. I think this game will be decided late or in extra innings and I’m therefore going to recommend to play the Jays on the spread. The Phiillies hand the ball to Jake Arrieta, while the home side goes with Ryan Borucki. The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 9-8 with a 3.25 ERA. He has been decent of late, but I’ll point out that he’s still just 5-6 with a pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road. Borucki is so far 2-3 with a 4.27 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing against the Yanks, giving up six runs over one innings. While the rookie has scuffled a bit of late, note that he sports the sharp 2.52 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine night home games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Bank on a “nail-biter” and grab the 1.5 runs. |
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08-23-18 | Eagles +4 v. Browns | Top | 0-5 | Loss | -105 | 71 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Philadelphia is so far 0-2 in the preseason, but I think the defending champs come to play in the Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” Most recently the Eagles fell 37-20 on the road in New England in a clear statement game by the Pats. After a Week 1 win, the Browns predictably came back down to Earth in last weekend’s 19-17 loss at home to the Bills. The teams: Nick Foles and Carson Wentz have seen limited time so far in the preseason, but each is expected to see some today for the Eagles. Foles was three off nine for 44 yards last week. A bright spot though was the play of third string QB Nate Sudfeld, who was 22 of 39 for 312 yards, posting three TD’s and one INT. Rookie Dallas Goeddert also impressed as he had three catches for 57 yards and when teamed up with TE Zach Ertz, the Eagles remain one of the top offensive threats in the league. There’s lots to be optimistic about if you’re a Cleveland Browns fan as well though. Rookie QB Baker Mayfield was 7 of 13 for 75 yards last week and the run game posted 164 on the ground, with rookie Nick Chubb leading the way with 53 yards and a TD. The team is now loaded with talent on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Chemistry would seem to be the only thing standing in its way at this point, and I do indeed think it’ll be a contributing detrimental factor working against Cleveland here today as well. The pick: Despite all of the improvements the Browns have made, they still don’t match up well with Eagles and I believe Philadelphia’s depth will in fact be the deciding factor in this Week 3 NFLX preseason contest. Take the points. |
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08-23-18 | Reds v. Cubs OVER 9 | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -111 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: This National League contest has “slug-fest” written all over in my opinion. The visitors go with Anthony DeSclafani on the mound, while the home side goes with Cole Hamels. The pitchers: DeSclafani is so far 6-3 with a 4.12 ERA. He’s been better of late, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 2-3 with a 4.62 ERA in all “night” games this year. Hamels is so far 8-9 with a 4.00 ERA. Hamels enters off his first shaky start for his new team, but overall the veteran has been sharp since coming over from the Rangers. Hamels has been anything but a “safe-bet” in all “home” situations this year though, coming in with a terrible 1-7, 6.01 ERA in all such instances. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go “over” the number in 13 of their last 21 road games as an underdog in the -150 to -200 range. I think that it’s very possible that Hamels’ early shiny numbers for Chicago are completely unsustainable. I’m also not confident that DeSclafani has “turned any corners” quite yet either. Look for this one to sneak “over” as it comes down the stretch. |
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08-23-18 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 7 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. Runs would appear to be at a premium this afternoon with these two “studs” going head-to-head. The visitors hand the ball to ace Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with ace Max Scherzer. The pitchers: Nola is so far 14-3 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits with one walk while striking out 11 over seven innings in a victory over New York on Friday. He’s been red hot since Day 1 and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t come in razor focused here as well. Note that he owns a tiny 0.98 WHIP and has a 160:44 K/BB over 161 frames of work. Scherzer is so far 16-5 with a 2.11 ERA. He most recently went six scoreless against the Fish on Friday. That’s back-to-back scoreless outings for Scherzer, who owns a minuscule 0.89 WHIP and a monstrous 234 strikeouts over 174.2 frames of work. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of its last 20 day road games as an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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08-22-18 | Cubs -182 v. Tigers | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. Jon Lester and the Cubs are well worth the price of admission in this match-up in my opinion. The home side sends Francisco Liriano to the hill. The pitchers: Lester is so far 13-5 with a 3.72 ERA. After a great start, Lester has come back down to Earth over the last month. But the veteran has to be feeling confident facing the tooth-less Tigers, as note that he is a superb 8-2 with a 3.08 ERA on the road. Liriano is so far 3-8 with a 4.72 ERA. Liriano comes in off back-to-back poor outings and he continues to regress as the season wares on. Note that he’s been really bad at home with a 5.43 ERA also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Detroit is a terrible 2-8 in its last ten home night games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +175 range. I like Lester to get back on track and easily out-duel Liriano. Play on Chicago. |
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08-22-18 | Phillies v. Nationals UNDER 8.5 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them. Everything points to a runs being at a premium tonight. The visitors hand the ball to Zach Eflin, while the home side goes with Stephen Strasburg. The pitchers: Eflin is so far 9-4 with a 3.70 ERA. He returns to the big league’s after a stint with Triple-A Lehigh Valley. In his last start in the Majors on Aug. 16th he earned a win over the Mets despite allowing four runs over seven frames of work. Note though that he owns a sharp 7-3, 3.66 ERA in all “night” games. Strasburg is so far 6-7 with a 3.90 ERA. Strasburg returns to the starting rotation refreshed after a month off due to a neck issue. He threw a 70 pitch simulated game late last week and he’s been cleared to go here. The pick: Strasburg has the track record to get back on track and that’s what I expect to see after some time off to re-focus. Eflin has been sharp in this position all season as well and I expect the hard-throwing right-hander to carry that momentum over into this one. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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08-22-18 | Astros -135 v. Mariners | Top | 10-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. That said, I think that Charlie Morton and the defending champs will find a way to a victory here and I believe they’re well worth the price of admission in this spot. The home side sends Marco Gonzales to the hill. The pitchers: Morton is so far 12-3 with a 2.78 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over five innings while striking out four in a no-decision to the A’s on Friday. Morton continues to defy the odds and I don’t think there’s any reason to doubt that he can’t keep the momentum rolling again here. Note that he owns a sharp 1.15 WHIP and has 175 strikeouts over 142.1 frames of work. Gonzales is so far 12-8 with a 3.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four earned runs off eight hits with three walks over five innings in a loss to Oakland in his last start. Gonzales has been sharp overall this year, although he does own a rather pedestrian 4.49 ERA in all “day” games. The pick: There is room for concern looking at Gonzales. His last start was an indicator in my mind that he’s starting to run out of gas. Morton though is on track to put together the best campaign of his career. I look for Morton to continue his strong play with another focused effort in the Pacific Northwest. Play on the Astros. |
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08-22-18 | Reds v. Brewers OVER 9 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
The pitchers: Stephenson is so far 0-1 with a 7.94 ERA. Stephenson has always looked sharp in Triple-A, but that success has so far not translated over into the big leagues. He was 5-6 with a 4.68 ERA last season, including just 1-3 with a 6.19 ERA on the road. Peralta is so far 5-4 with a 4.48 ERA. Not surprisingly the rookie has been “hit or miss” this year, showing great strike-out potential, but also displaying shaky command with a lot of walks. Note that Peralta is just 1-3 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games too. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Milwaukee has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 17 day home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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08-21-18 | Angels v. Diamondbacks -200 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 26 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I think that Patrick Corbin and the home side have the advantage, making this a price that I can live with paying. The visitors go with Felix Pena on the mound. The pitchers: Pena is so far 1-3 with a 4.35 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits with four walks while striking out seven over six innings in a victory over San Diego on Wednesday. Pena has looked solid of late, but I think he’s going to struggle in this difficult venue. Corbin is so far 10-4 with a 3.18 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with no walks while striking out seven over seven innings in a win over the Rangers on Tuesday. It was his third-straight quality outing and to go along with his solid ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHIP and 11.0 K/9. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Arizona is 7-2 in its last nine night home games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I like Corbin to find a way to get the job done at home, play on Arizona. |
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08-21-18 | Reds v. Brewers -179 | Top | 9-7 | Loss | -179 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Sal Romano, while the home side goes with the steady Junior Guerra. The pitchers: Romano is so far 7-10 with a 5.31 ERA. He most recently was shelled for six runs off seven hits with two walks over 1.2 innings in a loss to the Indians on Tuesday. Romano has been terrible overall this year, but especially on the road with the 2-5, 5.67 ERA. Guerra is so far 6-8 with a 3.73 ERA. He comes in off a poor outing as well, giving up seven runs off nine hits over 3.2 innings in a setback to the Cubs. It was the first time in three starts he failed to record a quality outing. Guerra’s been solid overall, especially at home with a 3-2, 2.59 ERA record. The pick: I believe Romano’s road struggles continue and that makes Guerra the correct call in this particular match-up. I can live paying this price as I expect a rout. Play on Milwaukee. |
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08-21-18 | Giants v. Mets OVER 8 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: I have zero faith in either starter and I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. The visitors go with Chris Stratton, while the home side goes with Steven Matz. The pitchers: Stratton is so far 8-7 with a 5.52 ERA. He returns from Triple-A out of necessity. For the most part he’s been terrible this season in the big leagues, especially at home with a 6.09 ERA. Matz is so far 5-10 with a 4.60 ERA. He makes his second start back from injury at home, a place where he’s gone a poor 1-5 with a 4.78 ERA. The pick: This match-up definitely does not have “pitchers duel” written all over it. It’s the exact opposite in fact. There’s no reason to have any faith in any either of these guys, and I don’t. I expect each to get the hook early and for this one to fly “over” once it’s all said and done. |
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08-21-18 | Phillies v. Nationals OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-10 | Win | 100 | 23 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features some competitive match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. However, i think we’ll see just enough offense to push this one “over” the number once it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Vince Velasquez, while the home side goes with Tanner Roark. The pitchers: Velasquez is so far 8-9 with a 4.13 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back shaky outings and while he has thrown better on the road than at home, I think the right-hander is running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch. Roark is so far 8-12 with a 4.13 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings in a victory over the Cubs on Thursday. Roark has been solid over the last the last month, but I’ll caution that he’s still just 4-6 with a 5.20 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten road night games when the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. I think Velasquez continues to slide and I believe Roark will take a step back. Play the “over.” |
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08-21-18 | Orioles v. Blue Jays OVER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This match-up has “slug-fest” written all over it. The Orioles go with Dylan Bundy, while the Jays hand the ball to Sam Gaviglio. The pitchers: Bundy is so far 7-11 with a 4.99 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings. He gave up eight hits, including two home runs. In four of his last six trips to the hill he’s allowed at least five earned runs while posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in that stretch. Gaviglio is so far 2-6 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off eight hits over 4.1 innings in a loss to the lowly Royals on Tuesday. Over his last eight starts Gaviglio has posted an atrocious 7.07 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. The pick: Bundy’s form suggests he’s in line for another “long night,” while Gaviglio has regressed as the season has worn on. Expect these trends to continue and for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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08-20-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -107 | 23 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. In fact I think the talent-gap is so large, that I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs for the near pick-em price on Houston and Gerritt Cole. The home side sends the beleaguered Felix Hernandez to the hill. The pitchers: Cole is so far 11-5 with a 2.71 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but overall he’s been much better than Houston could have possibly asked for. While his numbers have slid a little over the last month, he remains consistent and competitive every time he takes the hill. Note that Cole is 6-3 with a 2.74 ERA on the road as well. Hernandez is so far 8-11 with a 5.62 ERA. He returns from a short stay in the bullpen after giving up 11 earned runs to the Rangers in his previous start. “The King” has been better at home than on the road this season, but terrible overall and note that he’s just 6-6 with a 5.26 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Hernandez continues to spiral down the proverbial crapper, while I expect Cole and company to step up and take full advantage. Play on Houston on the “run line.”
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08-20-18 | Reds v. Brewers -197 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. In fact I believe the talent-gap to be so large here that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Homer Bailey, while the home side goes with Chase Anderson. The pitchers: Bailey is so far 1-10 with a 6.33 ERA. He’s been terrible overall with a 1.60 WHIP and note that he’s been especially feeble in all “night” games with a 1-7, 6.91 ERA record to this point. Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs over four innings in a no-decision to the the White Sox on Sunday. Anderson has been solid overall this year, but he’ll be looking to “right the ship” after a couple of shaky performances. Note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati is just 13-16 in its last 29 as a road dog in the -175 to -250 range, while Milwaukee is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -200 to -250 range. I’m banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the price. |
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08-20-18 | Ravens v. Colts +1 | Top | 20-19 | Push | 0 | 31 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: After back-to-back victories to open the pre-season and with the all important Week 3 dress rehearsal next weekend, I think the Ravens have a letdown here and get caught “looking ahead” in this meaningless Week 2 Monday Night contest. Indianapolis though will look to carry over its momentum from a 19-17 road victory in Seattle in its first game in front of the home town crowd. The teams: Ravens’ rookie QB Lamer Jackson was 7 of 18 for 119 yards last week, while also rushing for 21. RB Gus Edwards had 58 yards on 12 carries. Baltimore looked sharp defensively against the Rams’ backups, but I think it’ll have a much more difficult time at Lucas Oil Stadium. Colts’ backup QB Jacoby Brissett was 6 of 8 for 35 yards last weekend. Starter Andrew Luck returned and was 6 of 9 for 64 yards. Indianapolis also looked sharp defensively, holding the Seahawks to 87 rushing yards on 22 carries. Keep your eyes on Hassan Ridgeway, who had two sacks in the victory. The pick: Baltimore may have won ten straight preseason games and covered in nine of those, but I think that run of excellence comes to an end here. Luck will see some time at home and Brissett continues to excel. I’m banking on the home side figuring it out and getting it done. Play on the Colts. |
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08-19-18 | Mets v. Phillies OVER 9 | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: This Sunday night contest features a couple of pitchers who have been inconsistent this season. This one has “slug-fest” written all over it. The visitors go with Jason Vargas, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta. The pitchers: Vargas is so far 2-8 with an 8.10 ERA. Last year the veteran was 18-11 with a 4.16 ERA for Kansas City. He’s failed to resemble that form whatsoever this season though and note that he’s been particularly terrible on the road with a 1-4, 8.91 ERA record in such instances. Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over six innings in a no-decision to the Red Sox on Tuesday. Pivetta has admittedly looked a lot better of late, but note that he’s still just 4-6 with a 4.98 ERA in all “night” games this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total fly “over” the number in 12 of its last 20 road night games in which it’s an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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08-19-18 | Diamondbacks -190 v. Padres | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 15 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. In fact I think the talent-gap is so large, that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Zack Greinke, while the home side goes with Brett Kennedy. The pitchers: Greinke is so far 12-8 with a 3.00 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with two walks over 6.1 innings in a loss to Texas on Monday. Previous to this sub-par effort he’d allow two runs or fewer in nine straight trips to the hill. No need to overreact. Note that Greinke is still a solid 7-5 with a 3.50 ERA on the road as well. Kennedy is so far 0-2 with an 11.00 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off nine hits and a walk while striking out two over five frames in a setback to the Angels on Tuesday. Kennedy has now given up 11 runs off 20 hits over nine innings in the big leagues. The pick: I like Greinke to come in focused on the task at hand and because of that, I’m laying this price. Play on the Diamondbacks. |
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08-19-18 | Astros -144 v. A's | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Justin Verlander and the defending champs. The home side sends Sean Manaea to the hill in this one. The pitchers: Verlander is so far 11-8 with a 2.52 ERA. He most recently struck out 11 and walked none in an unfortunate loss to Colorado on Tuesday, giving up two runs over six innings in the end. Verlander has to be feeling confident here as he comes in with a 9-2, 1.74 ERA road record to this point. Manaea is so far 11-8 with a 3.44 ERA. Manaea has been solid overall this season, but he’s scuffled a bit over his last two starts. Note that he’s 5-5 with a 3.59 ERA at home. The pick: It’s hard to say too many negative things about Manaea, as for the most part he’s been very solid this year. But Verlander has been almost unbeatable on the road and I expect that trend of dominance to carry over here as well. Verlander’s run support is down from what it was last season, but I think the visitors take advantage and give their ace some production in this favorable match up. Play on Houston. |
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08-19-18 | Angels -115 v. Rangers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -115 | 5 h 45 m | Show |
The pitchers: Barria is so far 8-7 with a 3.50 ERA. he most recently gave up one run off six hits with one walk while striking out seven over five innings against San Diego on Tuesday. Over his last four starts Barria is now 3-0 with a 2.49 ERA. Gallardo is so far 7-2 with a 6.39 ERA. He makes a spot start in place of Bartolo Colon. In his most recent loss he gave up four runs off six hits over 4.1 innings to Arizona on Tuesday. Note that he has a 5.86 ERA at home. The pick: Barria comes in on top form and I think he’ll have more than enough to take care of the “on again, off again” Gallardo. Great price all things considered, play on LA. |
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08-19-18 | Blue Jays +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 2-10 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: Ryan Borucki and the visiting Toronto Blue Jays face their ex-ace JA Happ and the Yankees in New York on Sunday afternoon and I’m expecting a competitive battle. The pitchers: Borucki is so far 2-2 with a 3.29 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits over four innings in a no-decision to the Royals on Tuesday. Note that he’s been solid with a 2.25 ERA in all “day” games to this point. Happ is so far 13-6 with a 3.86 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless against the Rays on Tuesday. He’s now 3-0 for the Yankees, giving up four runs over 19 frames of work. The pick: I think it’s worthy to note that Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine road day games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. I expect this one to be decided late or even in extra frames. Grab the 1.5 runs for the Jays. |
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08-18-18 | Seahawks +148 v. Chargers | Top | 14-24 | Loss | -100 | 120 h 49 m | Show |
The teams: There were many positives for the Seahawks in their Week 1 setback on both sides of the ball. Whether or not starting QB Russell Wilson sees any time today, Seattle’s secondary offensive unit looked decent, but not spectacular in Week 1. The defense looked sharp though, with rookie Shaquem Griffin making nine tackles. LA got decent production from QB’s Cardale Jones and Geno Smith in the Week 1 loss to the Cardinals. Smith was 14 of 23 for 217 yards, one touchdown and one interception. With starting QB Philip Rivers expected to see little to no time this week again, LA’s offense looks poised to struggle again against the Hawks’ deep defensive unit. The pick: With New Orleans coming to town in Week 3, I think LA gets caught looking ahead. Play on the Seahawks. |
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08-18-18 | Diamondbacks -135 v. Padres | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -135 | 22 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. Great value here on Zack Godley and the hard hitting visiting side. The light-hitting home side sends Clayton Richard to the hill this evening. The pitchers: Godley is so far 13-6 with a 4.20 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with one walk while striking out six over 6.2 innings in a victory over the Reds on Sunday. Godley comes in on top form with three straight victories. Richard is so far 7-10 with a 4.98 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over eight innings in a no-decision to the Angles on Monday. Starts like that have been few and far between for Richard though and note that he’s a terrible 5-8 with a 5.12 ERA in all “night” games this year. The pick: Richard has struggled against the harder-hitting line-ups this season, so despite having the home field advantage tonight, I do absolutely feel that this one favors the big bats’ of the Diamondbacks. Lay the reasonable price on Godley and Arizona.
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08-18-18 | Brewers v. Cardinals -132 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors Miles Mikolas and the hard-hitting home side. The visitors turn to Wade Miley. The pitchers: Miley is so far 2-1 with a 2.23 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about Miley, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here (note that St. Louis is 7-2 in it last nine night time home games as a favorite in the -125 to -150 range.) Mikolas is so far 12-3 with a 2.85 ERA. His peripherals suggest that his numbers are sustainable. That said he’ll be looking to get back on track here after allowing four runs over seven innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Monday. Previous to this sub-par effort Mikolas hadn’t allowed more than three earned runs since mid June though. The pick: There’s absolutely no reason not to think that Mikolas can’t bounce back here, as note that he’s already 5-2 with a 2.29 ERA at home this season. Miley’s been good, but I like Mikolas to out-duel his counterpart today and for the Cards to take advantage. Lay the price.
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08-18-18 | Raiders v. Rams -3 | Top | 15-19 | Win | 100 | 114 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Oakland comes in off 16-10 home win over Detroit in its opener and I think it goes through the motions today as it gets caught looking ahead to the all important Week 3 “dress rehearsal.” LA on the other hand comes in much more motivated after a humbling 33-7 road loss in Baltimore in Week 1. The teams: Oakland’s offense didn’t look great last week, but it didn’t have to with the defense playing so well. Last year the Raiders were 23rd in the league in yards allowed and 20th in points allowed. Slowing down the Lions’ back-ups at home is one thing, but trying to contain a Rams team which led the league in scoring last year (29.9 PPG) is quite another obviously. The ground game was a positive on offense with 147 total yards. It must be noted that starting QB Jared Goff didn’t play in the Week 1 setback for LA, so I’m reading absolutely nothing into the Rams’ inefficiency on the offensive side of the ball. Brandon Allen and Sean Mannion were decent, but not spectacular. The ground game looked decent with 121 yards. The defense looked horrible and clearly the unit will be looking for a better effort with a few more starters in the line-up this time around. The pick: Connor Cook and EJ Manuel looked decent under center for the Raiders against Detroit, but in my opinion they look poised for a step back in this difficult venue. I’m expecting the Rams to come out much more focused on both sides of the ball in this one and their added motivation proves to the be the difference in my opinion. Lay the points. |
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08-18-18 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | Top | 1-7 | Push | 0 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Trevor Cahill. The pitchers: Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.43 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this year, but since the start of July he’s almost resembled the dominant figure on the mound he was about two years ago. Note though that Keuchel has been at his best on the road this season with the respectable 6-4, 3.00 ERA record to this point. Cahill is so far 4-2 with a 3.39 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off seven hits with three strikeouts in a no-decision to the Angels on Sunday. It wasn’t a great start, but overall the veteran has been solid, posting a 1.10 WHIP over 79.2 frames of work. Note as well that Cahill is 3-0 with 0.99 ERA at home this season. The pick: With these two studs facing off on Saturday afternoon, runs would definitely appear to be at a premium. Play the “under.” |
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08-17-18 | Cardinals v. Saints -3 | Top | 20-15 | Loss | -120 | 94 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with big aspirations collide in Week 2 of the preseason at the Superdome on Friday night. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The teams: Arizona comes in contented after last week’s 24-17 win in which it used a goal line stand as time expired to earn the dramatic victory. QB Josh Rosen was 6 of 13 for 41 yards. Chad Kanoff was 3 of 5 for 66 yards and a touchdown. Sam Bradford is expected to see a couple of snaps, but the Cards will be looking ahead to Week 3 here in my opinion after getting the Week 1 victory under their belts. The Saints come in off a win as well, pulling away for a 24-20 victory over Jacksonville. QB Tom Savage was 10 of 14 for 70 yards. In all three different players scored rushing touchdowns, including starting RB Mark Ingram. New Orleans’ defense looked sharp as well, as Jayrone Elliot led the way with 2.5 the teams six total sacks. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 6-1 ATS in its last seven in this series. I like the Saints to take care of business at home. Lay the points. |
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08-17-18 | Rockies v. Braves -128 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -128 | 23 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the home side. The Rockies send Kyle Freeland to the hill, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb. The pitchers: Freeland is so far 10-7 with a 3.02 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs with two walks over seven innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Saturday. Note that he’s 3-5 with a 4.01 ERA on the road. Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.40 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off five hits over six innings in a no-decision to the Nationals on Tuesday. Newcomb comes in on top form, giving up just three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined (striking out 19 in the process). The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is just 2-7 in its last nine as a road dog in the +125 to +200 range. I’m banking on Newcomb getting the better of Freeland in friendly confines. Lay the price. |
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08-17-18 | Dolphins v. Panthers -3.5 | Top | 20-27 | Win | 100 | 93 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami opens its NFL preseason with two straight on the road. With the important Week 3 match-up in their first game at home in Week 3, I do expect the Dolphins to simply go through the motions tonight as they get caught looking ahead. The teams: Miami threw everything it had at Tampa Bay in Week 1 and still came up short in the 26-24 setback. David Fales and Brock Osweiler combined to go 18 of 32 for 198 yards, no TD’s or INT’s. Ryan Tannehill went 4 of 6 for 32 yards. The Panthers beat the Bills 28-23 on the road last week and I think they carry that momentum and confidence over into their home opener. Backup QB Garrett Gilbert was 7 of 12 for 93 yards a TD, while Taylor Heinicke was 7 of 9 for 121 yards. Cam Newton looked good in his limited time as well, going 6 of 9 for 84 yards. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Carolina is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Miami is now 0-5 ATS in its last five on the road. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the short points. |
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08-17-18 | Chiefs v. Falcons -2.5 | Top | 28-14 | Loss | -110 | 93 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams comes in at 0-1 SU/ATS after Week 1. The Falcons will be particularly eager to atone after their 17-0 setback at the Jets last weekend, while the Chiefs fell 17-10 at Houston. The teams: KC QB Patrick Mahomes was five of seven for 33 yards in last week’s loss. The Chiefs would use four QB’s last week and Chad Henne was the only one of them who was able to post a TD. Henne would hit Demarcus Robinson for the major score. The Falcons’ backups looked poor last week, but starters on both sides of the line are expected to see more time in Week 2 at home. Matt Schaub was a bright spot in the setback by going 9 of 9. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Atlanta is 4-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Kansas City is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. Expect a much better effort in Week 2 from The Dirty Birds in front of the home town crowd. Lay the points. |
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08-17-18 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 103 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard on the hill, while the home side goes with Aaron Nola. The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 8-2 with a 3.22 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits with one walk while striking out six over six innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. In his second start since returning from the DL he earned the victory and to go along with his respectable ERA he also owns a sharp 1.22 WHIP and 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work. Nola is so far 13-3 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Nola is putting together the finest campaign of his career and he’s been unbeatable at home so far by going 8-0 with a 2.07 ERA. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 home games when the line is set between +150 and -150. This number is just a little high, play the “under.” |
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08-16-18 | Diamondbacks -124 v. Padres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 24 h 35 m | Show |
The setup: This series features a couple of lopsided mismatches on the mound, and this is one of them. In fact the talentgap is so large in my opinion, that I do indeed feel that Clay Buchholz and the hardhitting visitors are well worth the price of admission this evening. The home side sends Jabob Nix to the hill. The teams: Buchholz is so far 52 with a 2.67 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off seven hits with two walks while striking out eight in a 93 victory over San Francisco on Saturday. His 8.1 K/9 rate is his best since 2015 and note that he’s 32 with a tiny 2.18 ERA on the road. Nix is so far 10 with a 0.00 ERA, who looked sharp in his debut against the Phillies on Friday. Nix was dominant in TripleA and that momentum was carried over into his first career bigleague start, but there’s no question that he faces a much stiffer test thisevening in the Diamondbacks’ potent hitting lineup. The pick: The skies are the limit for Nix, but I think he’s in over his head here. Buchholz has been a pleasant surprise for Arizona this season and I find no reason not to believe that the veteran can’t carry over his consistency once again in this favorable matchup. Lay the price. |
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08-16-18 | Jets v. Redskins -135 | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 70 h 51 m | Show |
The setup: It’s the AFC East vs. the NFC East at FedEx Field in Landover Maryland. I think that home field advantage will prove critical in this one. New York gets caught looking ahead to its much more important Week 3 matchup after its very satisfying 170 home win over Atlanta last weekend in my opinion, while Washington will be looking for a much improved performance after a 2617 loss to New England on the road. The teams: New York looked good in Week 1 defensively, but it was 25th in the league in yards allowed last season and 22nd in points conceded. Sam Darnold played the entire second half and he went 13 of 18 for 96 yards and a TD. Last year the Jets were 24th in scoring overall. Washington let an early 17 point lead slip away in Week 1. But Week 1of the preseason is meaningless and the Redskins looked great early and saw enough. Backup QB Colt McCoy was 13 of 18 for 189 yards, two touchdowns and no interceptions. Note that Alex Smith didn’t see any time last week under center, but he’s set to this time around in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Sure New York looked great at home in Week 1 of the NFLX preseason against the Falcons’ backups. But now it’s Week 2 on the road in the Nation’s capital on Thursday night. With Smith and some of the other offensive starters seeing some time and with backup McCoy already firing on all cylinders, I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done in the end. |
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08-16-18 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
The setup: This series features a couple of interesting matchups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. All signs point to a classic “duel” and that runs will be at an extreme premium. The visitors go with ace Blake Snell, while the Yankees go with formerace Masahiro Tanaka. The teams: Snell is so far 135 with a 2.18 ERA. Snell returned tom the tenday DL and looked sharp in a victory over the Jays last Friday. Snell will be given the green light here and have the leash taken off in the Big Apple, note that he’s a very respectable 42 with a 2.93 ERA in all “day” games. Tanaka is so far 93 with a 4.08 ERA. Tanaka comes in off a couple of strong outings and his 1.07 WHIP and 109 strikeouts over 103 innings of work suggest he’ll be able to finish the regular season on a high. Note that he’s 20 with a 3.80 ERA in all “day” games this season. The pick: Snell’s been better overall than Tanaka this year, but the home side hurler catches a break in this one facing the Rays’ anemic lineup. I’m expecting these two starters to go deep into the latter innings and for this one to to fall “under” at the end of the night. |
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08-15-18 | Giants v. Dodgers -179 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. Both of these veteran starters have looked decent so far this season, but I think Hyun-Jin Ryu will find a way to get the job done here at home. The visitors hand the ball to Derek Holland. The pitchers: Holland is so far 6-8 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off ten hits over 6.1 innings while striking out five and walking one in a fortunate victory over Pittsburgh on Friday. Holland has been serviceable, but he’s been shaky in all “night” games with the poor 2-7, 4.99 ERA record in such instances. Ryu is so far 3-0 with a 2.12 ERA. He’s made two re-hab starts and he’s been cleared to go here. Over his first six starts before landing on the DL he posted the 2.12 ERA and a sharp 0.88 WHIP. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine home games as a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. Ryu will be on a count, but I still think he’ll have more than enough to take care of the “on again, off again” Holland. Lay the price. |
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08-15-18 | Mets -125 v. Orioles | Top | 16-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of mismatches on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. The visitors are well worth the price of admission in this spot as they hand the ball to the surging Zack Wheeler. The home side goes with Dylan Bundy. The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 7-6 with a 3.82 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits with a walk over seven innings while striking out eight in a victory over Miami on Friday. Wheeler has now won five straight, posting a tiny 2.08 ERA, 0.87 WHIP and a sharp 34:6 K/BB spanning 34.2 frames. Bundy is so far 7-10 with a 4.70 ERA. He most recently was shelled for eight runs over five innings in a loss to Boston on Friday. Bundy has now given up at least five earned runs in four of his last six outings, posting a terrible 7.71 ERA in the process. The pick: Wheeler benefits from the American League format here and I believe he can carry over his considerable momentum in this favorable match-up. The Mets have struggled at the plate all season, but they catch a break facing confirmed “gas can” Bundy. Lay the price. |
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08-15-18 | Pirates v. Twins OVER 8 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons though, I expect these starters to get chased early and I look for this total to sneak “over” the number sooner rather than later. The visitors hand the ball to Chris Archer, while the home side goes with Jose Berrios. The pitchers: Archer is so far 4-5 with a 4.36 ERA. Archer has looked shaky since coming over from the Rays, looking decent in one start and poor in the other. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 4.35 ERA on the road this season. Berrios is so far 11-8 with a 3.66 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off four hits with six walks while striking out five over four innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Thursday. Berrios for the most part has been solid this season, but this latest effort was a step back for sure. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in nine of its last 14 road day games in which its an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Archer’s inconsistencies come back to haunt him here, while I also believe Berrios continues to slide after his recent shaky performance. Play the “over.” |
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08-14-18 | Mariners -120 v. A's | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 25 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons though, I think this one favors the Mariners and their flame-thrower James Paxton. The home side sends Mike Fiers to the hill tonight. The pitchers: Paxton is so far 10-5 with a 3.63 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off eight hits over seven innings in a loss to Toronto on Saturday, striking out seven and walking only one. That’s now back-to-back strong performances for Paxton and note that he’s been super solid in all “night” games with the 8-2, 3.19 ERA record to this point as well. Fiers is so far 7-6 with a 3.40 ERA. Fiers looked admirable in his first start for his new team in a tough match-up throwing opposite Dodgers’ ace Clayton Kershaw and he enters on a nice streak overall, but I think that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one tonight. The pick: And that’s because the Mariners are a superb 7-2 in their last nine when on the road and the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. I think Paxton is the correct call here. Fiers is poised for a letdown and I like the hard-hitting visiting side to take advantage. Play on Seattle. |
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08-14-18 | Rockies v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 23 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons I think that runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors go with German Marquez on the mound, while the home side goes with Justin Verlander. The pitchers: Marquez is so far 9-9 with a 4.69 ERA. He most recently struck out nine and walked two in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Tuesday, ultimately giving up two runs over seven innings. Over 122.2 frames of work, Marquez sports a sharp 129:43 K/BB and note that he’s 5-3 with a 3.09 ERA on the road to this point as well. Verlander is so far 11-7 with a 2.50 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits and a walk while striking out 14 over eight innings in a victory over the Dodgers on Friday. It was Verlander’s third straight start and his fifth in his last six in which he’s given up two or fewer runs. The pick: Coors Field is a difficult venue to throw in and like most, Marquez has had his difficulties there. However he’s been much better on the road and I think he carries over his momentum from his last start. And there’s also no reason not to think that Verlander won’t be focused here as well in this interesting inter-league match-up. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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08-14-18 | Diamondbacks -165 v. Rangers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 23 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and this is one of them. I think the talent-gap is so large in fact, that it makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors go with Patrick Corbin, while the home side goes with Yovani Gallardo. The pitchers: Corbin is so far 9-4 with a 3.15 ERA. Corbin comes in on top form, having posted back-to-back dominant efforts, posting a whopping 19 strikeouts in that span. After a small scuffling patch, Corbin is back on track and there’s no reason not to think that he can’t carry that momentum over here (note as well that he’s 3-1 with a 2.99 ERA on the road to this point.) Gallardo is so far 7-1 with a 6.11 ERA. He most recently got a win over Baltimore on Thursday despite allowing five earned runs off nine hits over 5.1 innings. Gallardo has been terrible overall this year, having allowed multiple free-passes in six of his eight trips to the mound this season and to go along with his poor ERA, note that he also sports a sub-par 1.62 WHIP over 47 frames of work. The pick: Corbin and the Diamondbacks are big road favorites in this one, but for good reason. Gallardo has been a disaster and I’m predicting another letdown here as well. Lay the price, play on Arizona. |
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08-14-18 | Sky v. Lynx -10 | Top | 91-88 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have played three times and the Lynx are 2-1. Minnesota will look to take the season series here against the lowly Sky and get back on track after an 81-72 home loss to Seattle on Sunday. Chicago is simply playing out the season, as it’ll miss the playoffs. The teams: Minnesota clinched a spot in the post-season after back-to-back road wins and it wasn’t able to carry that momentum over in the loss to the Storm. This would be considered its only “cream puff” left to end the season though, with a tough road match up in Connecticut on Friday, followed by a regular-season ending match-up at home against Washington. I think Maya Moore and company come to play today as they take into account their upcoming tougher schedule. The Sky have lost three of their last four. They put up a valiant fight in Connecticut on Sunday, but still came away with the 82-75 setback. Chicago faces another bottom feeder in Indiana in a home and home series over the weekend, so the squad gets caught “looking ahead” here as well in my opinion. The pick: I like Minnesota to come in focused on the task at hand and I look for it to pull away for the comfortable ATS cover as the game comes down the stretch. Lay the points. |
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08-14-18 | Red Sox v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This inter-league series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound, and this is definitely one of them in my opinion. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs will be at a premium this evening. The visitors go with Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Nick Pivetta. The pitchers: Porcello is so far 14-5 with a 4.17 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off one hit while striking out nine over nine innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Yankees on Friday. Note that Porcello has been much better on the road (8-2, 3.81) than at home (6-3, 4.57) as well. Pivetta is so far 7-9 with a 4.51 ERA. He most recently went six shutout innings in a victory over the hard-hitting Diamondbacks on Tuesday. The hard-throwing right-hander has now thrown back-to-back quality outings and note that he owns an impressive 11.1 K/9 to this point as well. The pick: These starting pitchers come in on top form. There’s no reason not to think that they can’t carry that recent momentum over here and that’s exactly what I’m expecting. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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08-13-18 | Angels -118 v. Padres | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 23 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Andrew Heaney, while the visitors go with Clayton Richard. The pitchers: Heaney is so far 7-7 with a 3.96 ERA. He most recently allowed four runs off six hits over six innings in a loss to the Rays on Thursday. Overall Heaney has been solid this year though and to go along with his respectable ERA, he also owns a sharp 1.13 WHIP and elite 116:32 K/BB over 112.1 frames. Richard is so far 7-10 with a 5.13 ERA. He most recently allowed five runs off seven hits over five innings in a no-decision to the Brewers on Tuesday. His numbers aren’t great and his win/loss record is indicative of that. The pick: Note that Richard is just 5-8 with a 5.35 ERA in all “day” games as well this season. A late west coast game in a pitcher friendly park is just what the doctor ordered for Heaney and I’m banking on Richard continuing his steady and predictable decline as the season winds down. Play on LA. |
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08-13-18 | Diamondbacks -165 v. Rangers | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -165 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound absolutely makes Zack Greinke and the hard-hitting visiting the side the correct call in this inter-league match-up. The Rangers send the venerable Bartolo Colon to the hill tonight. The pitchers: Greinke is so far 12-7 with a 2.89 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits and four walks while striking out four over seven innings against the Phillies on Tuesday. Over his last five starts spanning 35.2 frames of work Greinke has a tiny 1.26 ERA and overall he sports an elite 152:23 K/BB. Colon is so far 6-10 with a 5.18 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off eight hits while striking out just one over seven innings in a fortunate victory over the Mariners on Tuesday. With the victory Colon became the all time Latin American wins leader. Can anyone say “letdown spot?” Note that he’s a terrible 3-4 with a 5.65 ERA at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 8-2 in its last ten road inter-league games in which its a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I look for Greinke to come in focused and to easily out duel his inconsistent counterpart. Lay the price, play on Arizona. |
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08-13-18 | Indians -157 v. Reds | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 39 m | Show |
analysis comingThe set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the steady Mike Clevinger, while the home side goes with the erratic Homer Bailey. The pitchers: Clevinger is so far 7-7 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently allowed three runs off five hits while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Angels on Friday. Clevinger comes into this one with the sharp 3.48 ERA to go along with a respectable 1.22 WHIP and 139 strikeouts over 139.2 frames of work (note that Clevinger has an elite 2.69 ERA on the road as well this season.) Bailey is so far 1-9 with a 6.19 ERA. He most recently was shelled for five runs off 11 hits over 3.1 innings in a loss to the Mets on Monday. Bailey has been a disaster so far this year and to go along with his atrocious ERA, he also sports a brutal 1.59 WHIP and a poor 54 strikeouts over 80 frames of work. The pick: And note that Bailey has consistently been at his worst at home with an 0-5, 6.44 ERA record to this point in front of the home town crowd. I’m expecting Clevinger to carry over his consistent play on the road and I look for the Indians’ big bats to take full advantage of this favorable matchup. Lay the price. |
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08-12-18 | Nationals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s hard to say anything negative about Max Scherzer, so I won’t bother. I simply feel that Cubs’ newly acquired starter Cole Hamels can carry over his momentum from his debut for his new team and match his elite counterpart frame for frame. I’m banking on this one being decided late or in extra innings, meaning I’m going to grab the 1.5 runs. The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 15-5 with a 2.28 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over seven innings in a no-decision to Atlanta on Tuesday. Hamels is so far 7-9 with a 4.38 ERA. He would give up one run over six innings in a win over Kansas City in his first start for the Cubs on Monday. Over his last 11 innings of work note that he’s given up just one earned run. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 8-3 in its last 11 as a home dog in the -125 to -200 range. As I stated off the top, I think this one will be very competitive and that’s the reason why I’m taking the Cubs on the “run line.” |
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08-12-18 | Storm v. Lynx -1 | Top | 81-72 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 42 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams have already played twice this year and each has won on its home floor. Suffice it to say, I think this trend carries over here. The teams: Seattle comes in off a 100-77 setback at Washington on Thursday and I predict another “letdown” here as well. The Storm will close out the year with two “cream puffs” at home against the Liberty and Wings, so I’m expecting the visitors to get caught “looking ahead.” The Storm are led by Brenna Stewart with 22.2 points and 8.1 boards per game while Sue Bird added 7.3 assister per night. Minnesota comes in off back-to-back victories and I think it’ll carry that momentum over here. The Lynx are led by Maya Moore with 18.4 PPG, while Sylvia Fowles adds 11.9 boards. The pick: Both teams have already clinched a playoff spot, but as I mentioned off the top, I think the Storm get caught looking ahead here to their final two games of the season in friendly confines. Play on Minnesota. |
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08-12-18 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -105 | 4 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. In fact, I believe the talent-gap to be so large, that I absolutely have no issues at all in laying the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors hand the ball to Erasmo Ramirez, while the home side goes with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Ramirez is so far 0-2 with a 10.24 ERA. He’s been out since late April with a shoulder injury, but he’s been cleared to go finally tonight after making several re-hab starts over the last few weeks. Keuchel is so far 9-9 with a 3.53 ERA. He comes in off a no-decision to San Francisco on Tuesday despite allowing just one run off three hits over six innings. Since the start of July Keuchel has given up just 11 runs over 45.2 frames, posting an elite 1.97 ERA in that span. The pick: This is a mismatch of epic proportions. No upsets today. Keuchel started the 2018 campaign off very slowly, but he’s quietly turned the corner over the last month and a half and I look for the hard-throwing right-hander to continue that progression with another gem here. Lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros. |
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08-12-18 | Brewers v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons, I think that runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Chase Anderson, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb. The pitchers: Anderson is so far 7-7 with a 3.81 ERA. Most recently he gave up four runs over 4.2 innings in a loss to Milwaukee on Tuesday. Previous to that though he’d thrown back-to-back quality efforts and he’s still holding his opposition to just a .221 batting average. I think Anderson bounces back here and improves upon his already impressive 100:48 K/BB over 125.1 frames of work this season. Newcomb is so far 10-5 with a 3.15 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits to go along with six strikeouts in a no-decision to Washington on Tuesday. Newcomb has now given up only three runs and ten hits over his last three starts combined, striking out 19 over 20.2 innings of work. The pick: This one has classic “duel” written all over it in my opinion. Look for these two hungry starters to battle deep and play the “under.” |
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08-12-18 | Mets -156 v. Marlins | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is definitely one of them. The visitors go with Noah Syndergaard, while the home side goes with Wei Yin Chen. The pitchers: Syndergaard is so far 7-2 with a 3.17 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off six hits while striking out six over 6.1 innings in a win over the Reds on Monday. To go along with his very respectable ERA, Syndergaard comes in with a sharp 1.22 WHIP and he also has 93 strikeouts over 88 frames of work. Additionally note that he’s 2-1 with a 1.96 ERA on the road to this point. Chen is so far 4-8 with a 5.48 ERA. He comes in off a rare gem against the Cards, giving up no runs off one hit over 5.2 innings in the the victory. In his previous outing he was shelled for five runs over five innings. To go along with his uninspiring 5.48 ERA, Chen also owns a poor 1.43 WHIP and pedestrian 66:36 K/BB over 88.2 frames of work. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but note that the Mets are 7-2 in their last nine as a road favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I’m banking on Chen taking a predictable step back here and I look for Synergaard to continue his recent progression. Lay the price. |
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08-11-18 | Fever v. Aces -9.5 | Top | 74-92 | Win | 100 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I played against the Aces in their home loss to Minnesota on Thursday, but I think Las Vegas offers great value to bounce back (ATS) at home on Saturday night. These teams have played twice this year and Las Vegas has won both times and while I do always take the “revenge angle” into account when doing my handicapping, I don’t think it’s going to apply here. The teams: Indiana is just plain terrible, the worst team in the league. After a short two-game win streak, the Fever came back down to Earth in a 94-79 loss to Seattle at home on Tuesday. Indiana is in action at Phoenix on Friday night as well, so clearly the visitors come in with “heavy legs” as well. Las Vegas has lost five straight and it’ll be eager to break that slide. Note that the Aces don’t play again until Wednesday as well, so we can absolutely expect a full focused effort from the home side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Las Vegas is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after a three or more straight unbeaten streak. Lay the points. |
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08-11-18 | Vikings v. Broncos +1 | Top | 42-28 | Loss | -100 | 29 h 60 m | Show |
In Week 1 of the NFLX pre-season, I don’t talk about what I think the teams will do over the upcoming campaign, or what they did over the off-season. If you want to get up to date information about that, there are plenty of other better places to do that. I’m here to simply let you know why this team of back-ups and wanna-be’s is going to win this meaningless Week 1 NFLX contest. In Week 2, I’ll touch on what each side did in Week 1. Reasoning: Kirk Cousins comes over to Minnesota, but he’ll see limited to no time here. He’s working under a new offensive co-ordinator anyways, so immediate success seems a stretch at this point to me. The Vikes’ strength last year was on the defensive side, but none of the starters is expected to suit up today. Even though it’s Week 1 of the pre-season, I think this one “means” a lot more to the Broncos. Case Keenum is the new man under center for Denver after a better than expected job in Minnesota. Denver is admittedly a work in process, but this is Week 1 of the pre-season. I’m expecting the home side to find a way to get the job done at the end of the night. |
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08-11-18 | A's v. Angels -115 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. The talent gap is so great though in my opinion, that it makes this a price in which I have no issues at all in laying. The visitors hand the ball to Edwin Jackson, while the home side goes with Tyler Skaggs. The pitchers: Jackson is so far 3-2 with a 2.87 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off five hits over six innings in a victory over the light-hitting Tigers on Saturday. In 2017 Jackson was just 5-6 with a 5.21 ERA. He’s been great in 2018, but I think his numbers are unsustainable and I expect some predictable regression sooner, rather than later. Skaggs is so far 8-7 with a 3.34 ERA. Skaggs returns from the ten-day DL to make this start. In his previous outing he was rocked for ten runs against the Rays. Outings like that though have been few and far between for Skaggs this season and I’m expecting him to bounce back her win friendly confines, a place that he’s already posted a very respectable 3.22 ERA to this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 in its last nine as a home favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I think Jackson regresses and I like Skaggs to bounce back. Lay the price. |
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08-11-18 | Diamondbacks -138 v. Reds | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -138 | 24 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, for a number of different reasons I think this one favors Robbie Ray and the hard-hitting Diamondbacks. The home side sends the erratic Matt Harvey to the hill. The pitchers: Ray is so far 3-2 with a 4.92 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs off seven hits while striking out eight over six innings in a no-decision to the Giants on Sunday. Ray has not been able to carry over his 2017 momentum, but note that he’s been at his best on the road by going 2-1 with a 2.57 ERA. Harvey is so far 5-7 with a 5.37 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off nine hits while striking out one over four innings in a loss to Washington on Saturday. Five of the nine hits he gave up went for extra-bases. Note that he owns a terrible 5.48 ERA at home. The pick: I think Ray’s consistency on the road carries over here, while all signs point to another long night for Harvey in front of the home town crowd. Lay the price. |
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08-11-18 | Twins v. Tigers OVER 8.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of pretty “mediocre” match-ups on the mound, and this is one of them. These starters have looked decent at times this year and very poor in others and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors go with Kyle Gibson, while the home side goes with Francisco Liriano. The pitchers: Gibson is so far 5-9 with a 3.60 ERA. He most recently gave up six runs off seven hits with three walks while striking out three over five innings in a loss to the Tribe on Monday. Overall Gibson has been solid this season, but note that the Twins have seen the total fly “over” the number in seven of their last ten when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150. Liriano is so far 3-6 with a 4.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits in a loss to the A’s on Sunday. For the most part LIriano has struggled this season though, coming into this one sporting a rough 73:51 K/BB. Note as well that he owns a horrible 5.08 ERA at home so far. The pick: I’m expecting these erratic starters to get the hook early and for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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