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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-18 | Dodgers -110 v. Brewers | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: With a chance to punch their ticket to the World Series, I look for the Dodgers to find a way to get the job done here. LA sends Hyun-Jin Ryu to the hill, while the home side goes with Wade Miley. The teams: Ryu gave up two runs over 4.1 innings in Game 2 of this series. Ryu posted his career best numbers this year though, with a 1.97 ERA over 15 starts. There’s no reason not to think that Ryu won’t be able to come out here and have another productive outing as well. Wade Miley went 5.2 scoreless in his Game 2 victory over LA. Over 13 innings faced against LA he’s allowed just one run. For his career though he’s just 4-5 with a 3.55 ERA against the Dodgers. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 7-2 in its last nine National League night road games in which it’s a favorite in the -105 to -135 range. I think Ryu continues his steady season here and helps lift his team to a well earned World Series berth. |
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10-19-18 | Knicks v. Nets -3 | Top | 105-107 | Loss | -113 | 11 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The Knicks enters off a convincing 126-107 smash job of the hapless Hawks on Opening Night, but, I’m not convinced at all that the Knicks have suddenly “turned a corner” or anything. New York is still without star Kristaps Porzingis and several other key players and its achilles heel has been its play on the road the last few seasons. With a game at home tomorrow night against the Celtics as well, it’s definitely not too hard to imagine the Knicks getting caught looking past their opponent tonight. The Nets fell 103-100 in Detroit on Opening night, easily covering with the spread and I think they’re going to build off that performance in their first game in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Both teams improved in the off-season, but note I don’t think that the home floor advantage can be overlooked as a very real deciding factor in this one. I’m on the Nets. |
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10-19-18 | Hornets v. Magic UNDER 218.5 | Top | 120-88 | Win | 100 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Charlotte played from behind all night in its heart-breaking 113-112 home loss to Milwaukee. Kemba Walker scored 41 points for the Hornets in that one but it still wasn’t enough. And with a game at Miami tomorrow night, the Hornets are also get caught “looking ahead” in my opinion as well. Orlando fought tooth and nail all night against the Heat in its opener and managed to pull away for the hard-fought 104-101 victory in the end. But with a game tomorrow night at Philly, I think the Magic also get caught looking ahead here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Charlotte has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine after allowing 112 points or more in its previous outing. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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10-18-18 | Broncos v. Cardinals UNDER 42.5 | Top | 45-10 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Two struggling teams collide on a short week on Thursday night and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. Denver comes in having lost four straight, most recently a 23-20 setback to the Rams, while Arizona fell 27-17 in Minnesota to fall to 1-5. The teams: The Broncos gave up 323 yards on the ground in a 34-16 win in New York two weeks ago, only to then allow 270 yards to the Rams on the ground in last Sunday’s setback. QB Case Keenum is nothing more than a clock manager, as the run game, special teams and defense continue to lead the way. Arizona’s offense has been terrible this year, averaging only 13.6 PPG at home so far. Last week the Cardinals looked decent for the first half, before then falling apart in the second. The pick: This one isn’t going to be decided by the QB’s. It’s going to be decided in the trenches, by the defenses and by special teams play. Take it for what you will as well, but Denver has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 13 against clubs with losing records, while Arizona has seen the total go “under” in 14 of its last 19 at home. Play the “under.” |
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10-18-18 | Heat v. Wizards -4.5 | Top | 113-112 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Here’s a great situational play. The Heat are in Orlando on Wednesday night and I think they’ll stumble in the second game of the back-to-back. Miami is an older team, which already is dealing with a few injury issues. Washington on the other hand will be opening up its season at home after a disappointing campaign last year. This is a big game for Washington to say the least. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Heat are just 2-7 ATS in their last nine on the second game of a back to back in which they are an underdog in the -2.5 to -9.5 points range. Lay the points. |
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10-18-18 | Canucks v. Jets -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 145 | 12 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a great “situational” play. This is the end of an extremely tough six-game road trip, one which the Canucks have gone 3-2 so far on. Can anyone say letdown spot? With two nights off before a home game against Boston, I absolutely expect the Canucks to get caught “looking ahead.” Winnipeg on the other hand will be eager to get back on track here after letting a big lead slip away against Edmonton last time out. The pick: And take it for what you will, but the Jets are 7-2 in their last nine home games in which they gave up five goals or more in their previous contest. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout.
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10-18-18 | Georgia State v. Arkansas State -14 | Top | 35-51 | Win | 100 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams last met in 2016 and Arkansas State won 31-16 on the road. Georgia State comes in “rusty” here in my opinion after its bye week, before that it got blown out 37-20 by Troy. Arkansas State looks to take advantage and to get back on track after a 35-9 home loss to App State last Tuesday. The teams: Georgia State is averaging 22.3 PPG and it’s allowing 34.2. Two weeks ago the Trojans rolled up 554 yards of offense. QB Dan Ellington has 1,224 yards with five TDs and two INTs. Arkansas State is averaging 23.5 PPG and it’s allowing 30.2. QB Justice Hansen had a horrible game against App State last week, but he still has 1,538 passing with 11 TDs and five INTs. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Arkansas State is 37-18-1 ATS in its last 56 conference games and 7-3 ATS in its last ten home games against a team with a losing road record, while Georgia State is 1-4-1 ATS in its last six conference games and only 1-4 ATS in its last five after allowing more than 200 rushing yards. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-17-18 | Nuggets -1 v. Clippers | Top | 107-98 | Win | 100 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: Denver improved dramatically in the off-season in my opinion, while LA definitely took a step backward. The Nuggets were led by big man Nikola Jokic and Paul Millsap. The addition of Isaiah Thomas will compliment Garry Harris and Jamal Murray well. The Clippers six-year playoff streak came to an end last year. Lou Williams now leads the charge for the Clippers after DeAndre Jordan departed. The pick: Note that Denver has won three of its last four season openers. Note that Denver is also 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road, while LA is just 1-4 ATS in its last five at home. Grab the points. |
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10-17-18 | Grizzlies +6.5 v. Pacers | Top | 83-111 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: The Grizzlies have something to prove after a disastrous year last season. Memphis is led by Marc Gasol (17.2 points, 8.1 boards and 4.2 assists) and Tyreke Evans (19.4 points, 5.1 boards and 5.1 assists). The Pacers pushed the Cavs to seven games in the first round and they’re led by Victor Oladipo (22.7 points, 8.3 boards, 6.0 assists.) The pick: The good news for Grizzlies fans is that Mike Conley is back at full strength and I think he’s going to be a big difference maker here. Conley signed a $120 million dollar contract just before getting injured and he and the rest of the Grizz will be out to send an early message. Indiana lost Lance Stephenson and I think the Pacers are going to miss his tough all around play. Look for Memphis to step up and take advantage. |
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10-17-18 | Heat v. Magic +2.5 | Top | 101-104 | Win | 100 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is coming off 44 wins and it made it into the playoffs, only to get bounced by Philadelphia in the first round. The Heat didn’t get any younger, re-signing Dwayne Wade for his “Swan Song” season, along with disgruntled big man Hassasn Whiteside. The Heat have an All Star in Goran Dragic, but the guard has been hampered by injury the last few years. Orlando has a new coach in Steve Clifford and he’ll be leaning heavily on Aaron Gordon and Nikola Vucevic this season. The pick: Vucevic was injured for most of the 2018/19 season, but he’s now at 100% health and ready to go. The Heat can’t say the same with all of their veterans. On Opening Night, I look for the home side to find a way to get the job done here. |
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10-17-18 | Nets v. Pistons -5 | Top | 100-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Brooklyn managed only 28 victories last year. D’Angelo Russell led the way with 15.5 points and 5.2 assists per game, but he only played 48 games. Allen Crabbe was a consistent bright spot as well for the struggling Nets with 13.2 PPG. Detroit was led by Blake Griffin with 19.8 points, 6.6 boards and 6.2 assists per game, while Tobias Harris averaged 18.1 points and 5.1 boards per night. The pick: Unfortunately for the Nets, both Crabbe and DeMarre Carroll are out with inury for the opener. Detroit though comes in at full strength. Lay the points. |
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10-17-18 | Rangers v. Capitals -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: This sets up great for a home side blowout. The Rangers are in action on Tuesday night at home in a tough match-up with the Avs. I believe the visitors come in “dog tired” here. Washington on the other hand has been off for four nights and it’ll be eager to get back on track here after back-to-back losses, most recently a 4-2 home loss to the Leafs. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Capitals are 11-4 in their last 15 home games in which they are a favorite in the -250 to -400 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout! |
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10-16-18 | Thunder v. Warriors -11.5 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -105 | 38 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: OKC was knocked out of the first round of the playoffs in the first round last year and many will point to Carmelo Anthony “not fitting in” properly which was the issue. Russell Westbrook and Paul George, along with Dennis Schroder and Nerlens Noel once again make the Thunder a team which most clubs would rather avoid on any given night. But the Warriors come in more stacked than ever this year and I’m fully expecting a healthy and focused two-time Champs to put on a show tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the home team is 16-6-1 ATS in the last 23 in this series, while OKC is only 2-9 ATS in its last 11 in this match-up overall. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Play on Golden State. |
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10-16-18 | 76ers v. Celtics OVER 208.5 | Top | 87-105 | Loss | -105 | 36 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Celtics knocked the 76ers out of the second round of the playoffs last year. Each team has a lot to play for this season and there’s a very good chance that this is a preview of what will become the Eastern Conference Finals in about seven months. Each team is now 100% healthy. Philadelphia has an elite core that will no doubt dominate this year, but if the 76ers hope to “take the next step,” their bench will have to step up this season. Philly has lost its opener in each of the last four years, so it’ll be eager here as well to break that string of futility. The Celtics are stacked and they welcome back Gordon Hayward and Kyrie Irving to an already deep and dangerous line-up. I believe the home side will be out to send a statement to the rest of the Eastern Conference tonight. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine home games as a favorite in the -4 to -7 points range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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10-16-18 | Hurricanes v. Lightning -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 160 | 27 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a favorable stretch for Tampa, which sits at 2-1 to open the year. It’s had two whole nights off after an 8-2 win over Columbus and it has two nights off after this one before a game against lowly Detroit. After that the Bolts hit the road for a lengthy trip, so earning victories over these next two games will be important for Tampa here. The Hurricanes on the other hand will come in flat here. After a tough 5-4 OT win in Minnesota, Carolina would predictably take a step back in a 3-1 loss at Winnipeg the following night. But with three nights off before a home game against the Rockies, there’s no doubt that this sets up as a “look ahead” spot for the visitors also The pick: And take it for what you will as well, but Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a blowout.
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10-16-18 | Red Sox +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 24 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: This series is all tied up and I expect another hard-fought and spirited affair on Tuesday night. The visitors on the “run line” is the correct call in my opinion though. The Red Sox go with Nate Eovaldi on the mound, while the home side counters with Dallas Keuchel. The pitchers: Eovaldio has a lifetime 3.19 ERA and 1.06 WHIP against the Astros to go along with a 1-1 record over five starts. Keuchel has struggled against Boston whenever he’s faced them, giving up 20 runs off 28 hits over 19.2 innings to go along with an 0-1 record. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Boston is 7-2 in its last nine American League night road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -175 range. I think Keuchel’s struggles in this particular match-up continue. |
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10-15-18 | 49ers v. Packers OVER 46 | Top | 30-33 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers are 1-4 and last place in the NFC West. This is a “must win” game for San Francisco if it hopes to compete in the playoffs. Starting QB Jimmy Garraopolo was lost to injury for the season three weeks ago, so it’s “do or die” tonight. The 2-2-1 Packers have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. Hall of Fame QB Aaron Rodgers will be eager to bounce back in front of the home town crowd. The teams: San Fran is now led offensively by RB Matt Breida, who is averaging 7.5 yards on 49 carries so far this year. QB CJ Beathard makes his third start after falling 29-27 to the Chargers most recently. Rodgers comes in sporting an elite 10:1 TD/INT and I have a hard time seeing San Francisco slowing him down tonight after the critics have been quick to jump on him after last week’s sub-par effort. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 home games as a favorite of 9 points or more. I’m expecting a wide-open affair, play the “over.” |
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10-15-18 | Brewers v. Dodgers -166 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -166 | 11 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This series is all tied up at 1-1. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side goes with Walker Buehler. After rallying for the 4-3 win in Game 2, I think the Dodgers carry that momentum over here. The pitchers: Chacin fired five shutout innings against Colorado in Game 3 of the LDS, but in his lone meeting against the Dodgers this year he was shelled for nine runs. Overall Chacin has struggled against the Dodgers, posting a 4.41 ERA and 1.53 WHIP over 145 career innings. Buehler gave up five runs over five innings in Game 3 of the LDS against the Braves. In his lone start against Milwaukee this year though he gave up one run over seven innings. The pick: If we look a little closer at Chacin’s numbers we see that he in fact has a very poor 6.13 ERA over his last eight starts against LA. Furthermore, Buehler was downright awesome at home this season, posting a tiny 1.93 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over 74.2 frames of work. Lay the price. |
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10-15-18 | Kings v. Maple Leafs -183 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: LA comes in off a 5-1 road loss in Ottawa and I think it’ll have its hands full here with a red hot Leafs team which returns home after a 4-2 road win in Washington. The pick: The Kings are just 2-3 and the offense is averaging only 2.20 GPG. The defense/goaltending has been decent in allowing only 2.40 GPG, but Toronto is averaging 4.83 GPG, while allowing 3.67. Take it for what you will as well, but the Kings are just 2-6 in their last eight against a team with a winning record just 2-6 in their last eight when playing on one days rest. No upset here. Look for the Leafs to come in focused and to deliver another relatively simple victory in front of the home town crowd. |
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10-14-18 | Chiefs v. Patriots UNDER 59.5 | Top | 40-43 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs have started 5-0, but the Pats come in off back-to-back victories and hungry for more after a lacklustre start. New England’s success in the past has had a lot to do with earning the first round bye in the playoffs and if it falls to the Chiefs here, it’s going to have to essentially “run the table” to duplicate that feat against this season. The teams: Patrick Mahomes had 313 yards and an INT in last week’s win over Jacksonville. The Chiefs’ young QB has so far answered every challenge to this point, but he’ll face his most difficult task to date. The Chiefs haven’t been great defensively this season, but so far they haven’t had to be. However, holding Bortles and the Jags to just 20 points last weekend was a big step in the right direction for the unit. New England comes in having won ten straight home games, but the Patriots still won’t want to turn this one into a “track meet” with the high-octane Chiefs. Look for Tom Brady to “control” this one while on offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the total in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while New England has seen the total go “under” in its last four as a home favorite of three points or less. This number is a little high, play the “under.”
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10-14-18 | Bucs v. Falcons -3 | Top | 29-34 | Win | 100 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons have lost three in a row. This has essentially become a “must win” game for the Falcons, as another loss to a divisional foe and a 1-5 record would be too much of a hole for them to climb out of. Tampa started the year on fire, but it went into its “bye week” off two straight losses. And now the Bucs welcome back Jameis Winston under center, a situation which will surely need some time to develop property chemistry. In my opinion, the stage is set for a lop-sided home blowout victory. The teams: Tampa’s defense though is the main reason why I believe that Falcons’ QB Matt Ryan and company can bounce back today. Last year the Bucs were last in the league in the pass rush, and this season they’re ranked 30th. Despite the 1-4 record, Ryan continues to put up impressive numbers with 1,601 passing yards so far, ranked 7th overall. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Bucs are a terrible 1-4 ATS in their last five road games against teams with losing home records, while the Falcons are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU losses, including a loss to a divisional foe in their most recent. As mentioned off the top, this one has “rout” written all over it. Lay the points. |
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10-14-18 | Bears v. Dolphins UNDER 43 | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago enters off an impressive 48-10 home win over Tampa Bay back on September 30th, while Miami comes in off a 27-17 road loss to Cincinnati. I’m expecting a hard-fought, lower-scoring “under” once it’s all said and done. The teams: Chicago is averaging 27.8 PPG, but more impressively is the fact that it’s allowing just 16.2 PPG, ranked third overall. QB Mitch Trubsky had 354 passing yards and six TD’s against the Bucs last weekend, his best ever game as a pro. Can anyone say “letdown” spot? Clearly Miami can ill afford to turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the high-flying Bears. Miami is averaging only 288 yards per game, ranked 30th in the NFL (19.8 PPG), while allowing 23.4. QB Ryan Tannehill had 185 passing yards, one TD and two INT’s last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as a favorite and in nine of its last 15 against teams with winning records, while Miami has seen the total go “under” in seven of its last 12 against teams with winning records and in seven of its last nine as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. This number is a little high, play the “under.”
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10-14-18 | Cardinals v. Vikings -10 | Top | 17-27 | Push | 0 | 120 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Arizona comes in off a 28-18 divisional road win over San Francisco and I think it’ll stumble in this difficult venue. Minnesota enters off a much-needed and confidence building 23-21 over Philadelphia and I look for it carry that momentum over here. The teams: Despite last weeks victory the Cardinals are still averaging only 13 PPG. The defense has been decent in allowing 22.4. Rookie QB Josh Rosen so far has 386 passing yards and a 2/1 TD/INT. The Vikes are averaging 22.6 PPG and they’re allowing 26.5. QB Kirk Cousins had 301 yards and a TD in last week’s victory and he so far has 1,688 passing yards, along with an 11/2 TD/INT. The pick: The Vikes’ defense looked a lot better last week, giving up just two TD passes. Take it for what you will as well, but Minnesota is 17-6 ATS in its last 23 home games against teams with losing road records and 8-2 ATS in its last ten games after posting 250 passing yards in its previous game, while Arizona is only 3-12-1 ATS in its last 16 following a SU victory. I’m banking on a blowout from start to finish. Lay the points.
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10-14-18 | Seahawks v. Raiders +3 | Top | 27-3 | Loss | -115 | 120 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Raiders to find a way to get the job done in London Sunday. Oakland is 1-4 and it’s playing for its playoff life today. Seattle is the perfect opponent to get untracked against in my opinion though, as it had won two in a row before a crushing home loss to the division rival Rams last weekend. The teams: The Seahawks opened up their offense last week, but it still wasn’t enough to get the job done against the Rams. As good as Seattle’s offense looked against a shaky Rams’ defense, is as poor as the Hawks defense performed. And I think that’s a major issue heading into this matchup against this hungry non-conference foe. Marshawn Lynch gets to face his old team for the first time. Raiders’ QB Derek Carr has been above average this season and I believe he’ll have plenty of opportunities today against this clearly struggling Seattle secondary. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle is just 9-14 ATS in its last 23 as a favorite and only 3-4 ATS in its last seven non-conference games, while Oakland is 12-6 ATS in its last 18 games when the line in the game is between +3 and -3 and 3-1 ATS in its last four off a loss against a division rival. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
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10-13-18 | Astros v. Red Sox -115 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -115 | 54 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston sends 35 year old Justin Verlander to the hill in Game of the ALCS, while Boston turns to 29-year old Chris Sale. It’s “revenge time” for Boston, which was knocked out of last year’s ALDS by the eventual champion Astros. The pitchers: Verlander gave up two runs over 5.1 innings in Game 1 of the ALDS. Overall he posted a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP over 214 innings this season. He’s 5-5 with a 2.89 ERA and 1.12 WHIP lifetime against Boston. Sale gave up two runs off five hits over six innings in a 5-4 win over the Yanks in the ALDS. He’s 5-2 with a 1.83 ERA and 0.76 WHIP lifetime against the Astros and he was 12-4 with a 2.11 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in the regular season. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Houston is a sub-par 9-12 (-4.2 units) this year already on the road when the money line is set between +125 and -125, while Boston is 88-39 (+32.2 units) against right-handed starters this season. Look for Sale to defend his home field and lay this reasonable price. |
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10-13-18 | Canucks v. Panthers -190 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -190 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Florida is 0-2 and this is its final home game before a difficult road trip which sees it in Philadelphia and Washington. The Panthers will be leaving everything they have on the ice tonight to break into the win column and they fortunately catch a Canucks team that comes to town complacent after their upset 4-1 win at Tampa on Thursday. And with a game at Pittsburgh on Monday, followed by a trip to Winnipeg to end its trip, I absolutely expect Vancouver to also get caught “looking ahead” here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Florida is 7-3 in its last ten home games off a loss and as a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Considering all of the above factors, I have no issues at all in laying this price. |
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10-13-18 | Miami-FL v. Virginia +6 | Top | 13-16 | Win | 100 | 126 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami needed a dramatic come-from-behind win to knock off FSU last weekend, a victory which extended a five-game unbeaten streak. Can anyone say “letdown/trap” spot for the Hurricanes? Virginia has had a week off to absorb a two TD loss to high-powered NC State and I look for it come keep this one competitive throughout. The teams: The Hurricanes won last week, but the offense took a blow with the news that WR Ahmmon Richards suffered a neck injury which end his career. Miami is getting unreal play through all three phases, but I think it comes in complacent and distracted this weekend. Virginia’s issues are on the offensive side of the ball, especially with the run. But the combination of QB Bryce Perkins (who is himself a dual threat) and RB Jordan Ellis remains a formidable pairing. The pick: NC State has been an absolute wrecking ball this year, so I’m not judging the Cavs completely on that one performance. As stated off the top, with a week off to prepare, I believe Virginia can in fact keep this one close against a Hurricanes team which comes in tired and distracted. Take it for what you will as well, but Miami is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 after plaint a conference game and only 5-10 ATS in its last 15 against teams with winning records, while Virginia is 2-1 ATS in its last three when playing with two or more weeks of rest. Grab the points.
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10-13-18 | West Virginia -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -106 | 126 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Iowa State comes in off an improbable 48-42 shootout win over then No. 25 ranked OKST last weekend and I believe it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. WVU took care of business last Saturday with a relatively simple 38-22 victory over Kansas. The teams: WVU QB Will Grier wasn’t at his best last weekend, but it was still more than enough to knock off the Jayhawks. Grier finished with 332 yards and four TD’s, but also three INT’s. Iowa State got 318 yards from QB Brock Purdy last week, including four TD’s and one INT. Can the true freshman pull off back-to-back upsets? The pick: I’m banking on that answer being a resounding “no.” Take it for what you will as well, but Iowa State is 0-3-1 ATS in its last four in this series, while WMU is 14-3 ATS in its last 17 on the road against teams with losing home records. Lay the points.
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10-13-18 | Purdue v. Illinois +10 | Top | 46-7 | Loss | -106 | 122 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team will likely challenge Wisconsin for the West Division race of the Big Ten Conference. Purdue is 2-3 and Illinois is 3-2 (both are 1-1 in conference play.) Each is looking to make it to the six win plateau and this is an important mid-season match-up. I’m expecting a tighter then expected battle and will therefore recommend grabbing as many pints as you can. The teams: Purdue comes in rested off its bye, but I believe that rest does in fact lead to “rust.” The Boilermakers opened with three straight losses, then they won two in a row before the untimely “bye.” With that momentum now erased, I believe the stage is set for the hungry underdog home side to take advantage. Illinois enters off a 38-17 win over Rutgers, a confidence building victory which snapped a 13-game conference losing streak dating to 2016. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Purdue is just 9-10 ATS in its last 19 against conference opponents, while Illinois is 5-2 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records. I do indeed feel that the conditions are correct for a war down to the end. Grab the points.
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10-13-18 | Louisville v. Boston College -13.5 | Top | 20-38 | Win | 100 | 119 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams comes in off losses. I think BC rallies at home though, while I expect Louisville to take another step back in this difficult road venue. The teams: The Cardinals were destroyed 66-31 by Georgia Tech at home last weekend. Louisville looks completely inept defensively, especially against the run, allowing 542 yards and eight TD’s on the ground last Saturday. Five different GT players would post a rushing TD. BC fought tooth and nail at undefeated North Carolina State last weekend, but it wasn’t enough in the eventual 28-23 setback. The Eagles haven’t lost at home yet this year though. RB AJ Dillon didn’t play last weekend, but he’s expected back in the line-up here to test this atrocious Louisville front line.
The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BC is 5-1 ATS in its last six against teams with losing records, while Louisville is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten following a loss and only 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. The Eagles are averaging a whopping 223 yards on the ground this year, a number which will increase dramatically after this contest. Lay the points. |
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10-13-18 | Duke v. Georgia Tech UNDER 54.5 | Top | 28-14 | Win | 100 | 95 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Duke is in the basement of the ACC Coastal Division and the last thing it can do is turn this one into a “track meet” and expect to hang with the surging Yellow Jackets, who are looking for a third straight win. In my opinion, this number is a little hight. The teams: Duke would actually go on to destroy Georgia Tech 43-20 last year, but I think we’re going to see a much lower-scoring “chess match” on Saturday afternoon. The Blue Devils comes out of their bye week off a loss to VT, a game in which it allowed a season-worst 413 yards, including 332 through the air. Duke would allow 11.86 YPA to the Hokies, which nearly doubled their season mark coming in of 6.74. Good news came on the offensive end though, as starting QB Daniel Jones returned from injury to go 23 of 35 for 226 yards and a TD. The Blue Devils roared out to four straight wins last year as well, before then dropping six straight, so clearly the team will be out to avoid a similar fate this season. After three straight losses, the Yellow Jackets have won two straight, most recently steam-rolling Louisville 66-31 last weekend. The triple-option-offense posted a season-best 542 rushing yards, with QB TaQuaon Marshall going for 175 rushing yards and two TD’s. Note that it was the second straight game in which GT did not commit a turnover. The defense has been opportunistic as well, forcing 13 turnovers over the first six games. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Duke has seen the total go “under” the number in 13 of its last 17 against the conference and in nine of its last 11 off a loss against a conference rival, while GT has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven after two or more SU victories and in four of its last five off a win against a conference rival. This number is high, play the “under.”
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10-12-18 | Arizona +14 v. Utah | Top | 10-42 | Loss | -109 | 105 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Utah comes in off its first conference victory this year, while Arizona enters at 3-3 and 2-1 in league play after a great defensive performance against the Golden Bears. While I’m not calling for the outright, I do expect a spirited battle from the Wildcats this evening. The teams: Arizona is averaging more than 30 PPG and it’s allowing 26.5. QB Khalil Tate had 141 yards, one TD and one INT last week and he also ran for a season high 40 yards. The defense though would force four turnovers and return two INT’s for TD’s. The Wildcats come in on top form, having won three of their last four. Utah is averaging 25.8 PPG and it’s allowing 17.2. The Utes broke a two-game slide with an impressive road win at No. 14 Stanford, forcing four turnovers in the 40-21 upset. QB Tyler Huntley had 199 yards and a TD. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Utah is still just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five following a SU victory, while Arizona is 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. Tate is finally starting to come around to his “pocket passer” roll and he’s getting significant contributions from his running game as well. As mentioned off the top, I’m not predicting an outright, but all signs point to “war.” Grab the points.
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10-12-18 | Dodgers v. Brewers +1.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a number of interesting match-ups all over the field, but especially on the mound. There’s no doubt that this is one of them, as the visitors hand the ball to ace Clayton Kershaw, while the home side goes with the veteran Gio Gonzalez. I think Gonzaelz can match Kershaw’s effort today, which I in turn ultimately believe swings the value to the home side on the “run line” at this reasonable price. The pitchers: Kershaw finished 9-5 with a 2.73 ERA. It’s hard to say anything negative about the veteran southpaw, so I won’t even bother. Gonzalez finished 10-11 with a 4.21 ERA. He struggled down the stretch with the Nationals, but he excelled in his fives starts for the Brewers. Note that Gonzalez is 7-4 with a 3.26 ERA in all “home” situations this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Brewers 7-2 in their last nine National League night home games in which they are an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. Lay the reasonable price and grab the 1.5 runs. |
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10-11-18 | Eagles v. Giants +3 | Top | 34-13 | Loss | -105 | 55 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: The Giants lost 33-31 last week on a last second 61 FG by Graham Gano in Carolina last weekend. I’m expecting New York to bounce back here and take out its frustrations on a clearly struggling Eagles team. New York is only 1-4, but the Eagles are just 2-3 and they also come in with more questions than answers. An outright win? Of course it’s not out of the question. In the end though, I’m grabbing the points. The teams: New York is still only 1.5 games behind Washington which sits at 2-2, so it’s still very much in the race in the NFC “L”East. Philadelphia is 29th in the NFL with 395 penalty yards and its turnover margin is a horrible minus-four. The Eagles red zone offense is just 38.5 percent in three games since Carson Wentz returned: “I’m concerned,” lamented Eagles tight end Zach Ertz after Sunday’s contest. “It’s not where we thought we would be.” The pick: To add insult to injury, Philadelphia RBY Jay Ajayi, the one standout each week, tore his ACL on Sunday. Take it for what you will as well, but Philadelphia is just 7-11 ATS in its last 18 on the road and just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 against the division. The defending champs are ripe for the picking (but grab the points!)
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10-11-18 | Georgia Southern -16.5 v. Texas State | Top | 15-13 | Loss | -105 | 78 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Georgia Southern has won two in a row and I look for the Eagles to keep the momentum rolling on Thursday night against the lowly Bobcats (just 1-4.) The teams: Since falling to Clemson, Georgia Southern has beat Arkansas State and South Alabama (48-13 last weekend.) GSU has scored at least 28 points in its four wins, including at least 34 on three occasions. QB Shai Werts had two rushing TD’s against South Alabama. Overall the Eagles are averaging 30.8 PPG, including th seventh most-rushing yards in the natoin with an average of 276.6 per game. Texas State has given up at least 35 points in three different games this year and it’s given up more than 40 twice. The Bobcats have issues at QB as well (the team is splitting time between Willie Jones III and Tyler Vitt.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Georgia Southern is 4-1 ATS in its last five against the conference, while Texas State is just 1-5 ATS in its last six at home. Lay the points and expect a rout. |
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10-11-18 | Golden Knights v. Penguins -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 160 | 9 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand-point. The Golden Knights are in Washington to take on the Capitals in re-match of last year’s Stanley Cup Final and will clearly be “gassed” here. The Knights will be using their back-up goaltender and they’ve not looked nearly as explosive this year, clearly suffering from a “hang-over” after last season’s epic debut season. Pittsburgh on the other hand can’t be too happy at 1-2. It beat Washington 7-6 in OT in its Opener, before then falling 5-1 to Montreal two nights later. But the Pens have had four whole nights off to absorb that set-back and prepare for this one. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 8-3 in its last 11 home games as a favorite in the -150 to -300 range. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Play on the Pens on the “puck line.” |
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10-11-18 | Capitals v. Devils -109 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: No need to overthink this one either. This one also sets up fantastically from a “situational” stand-point. The Capitals are in action on Wednesday night at home against the Las Vegas Golden Knights and I think they come in “gassed” here. New Jersey has only played one game so far and it destroyed Edmonton 5-2. With three whole nights off to prepare, the “outright” win isn’t out of the question here either obviously. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Jersey is 7-2 in its last nine home games as an underdog in the +105 to +200 range. Play on the Devils on the “money line.” |
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10-11-18 | Oilers +1.5 v. Bruins | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -190 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Edmonton’s played one game and it lost 5-2 in New Jersey. The Oilers got off to a terrible start last season and they’ll be risking life and limb today to try and get back to .500. Boston opened with a 7-0 loss to the Capitals, but it’s since reeled off back-to-back victories. With a game at home against rival Detroit on Saturday, I think the home side could be caught “looking past” its lowly non-conference opponent. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Edmonton is 7-2 in its last nine when playing a road game after having two or more nights off. Play on the Oilers on the “puck line.” |
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10-10-18 | Flyers v. Senators +108 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Flyers have a tough game at home against the Sharks on Tuesday night and I think they’re going to falter in this difficult road venue North of the border. The achilles heels of the Flyers has been their play on the road the last few seasons, which doesn’t bode well in my estimation facing this hungry and talented Senators team at home. The Sens fell 4-3 in OT at home on Opening Night to the Blackhawks, before then bouncing back with a convincing 5-3 win in Toronto two nights later. Ottawa wasn’t able to keep the momentum rolling though in a 6-3 setback in Boston on Sunday. With a night off to prepare and focus on a lengthy home stand, I think the home side will definitely step up the pressure here in this favorable situation. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Ottawa is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -105 to -150 range. Play on the Senators.
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10-09-18 | Flames v. Predators -156 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -156 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Nashville is 2-0 to open the year. The Predators beat the Rangers 3-2 in The Big Apple and then the Islanders 4-3 on Long Island. Nashville returns home for the first time this year and i look for it to ride the wave of emotion to a third straight win. The Flames on the other hand lost 5-2 in Vancouver, before then beating the Canucks 7-4 at home two nights later. The reasoning: Of course, the achilles heel of the Flames over the last decade has been their consistency away from friendly confines. Take it for what you will as well, but Nashville is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. I like Pekka Rinne and the Predators to deliver the goods on Tuesday night. Lay the price. |
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10-09-18 | Appalachian State v. Arkansas State +9 | Top | 35-9 | Loss | -112 | 31 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the App State has a letdown here after its 52-7 home win over South Alabama. Conversely, it’s going to be “all hands on deck” for the Red Wolves after they fell in a tight 28-21 decision to Georgia Southern in its most recent action. The teams: I think this does indeed set up as a bit of a “trap” for the Mountaineers after three straight victories. QB Zac Thomas has 896 yards and an 8/3 TD:INT. Overall Appalachian State is averaging 51.8 points per game, while allowing only 17. In my opinion, these numbers are unsustainable and are skewed due to the competition level faced. Arkansas State is averaging 26.4 PPG and it’s allowing 29.2. QB Justice Hansen was phenomenal in a losing cause last week, going for 376 yards and a TD. Note that he doesn’t have an INT over his last three games and he has 1,329 passing yards and an 11/2 TD:INT. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arkansas Sate is 5-0 ATS in its last five against teams with winning records, while App Sate is 0-5 ATS in its last five against schools with winning records. I’m not calling the outright, but I do expect a very competitive battle. Grab the points. |
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10-08-18 | Red Wings v. Ducks -200 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ducks are 2-0, most recently holding on for a 1-0 win over the Coyotes. They opened with a 5-2 road win in San Jose. And now the Mighty Ducks return home for the first time to face a young Wings team on the West Coast. Suffice it to say, I think the home side is well worth the price of admission in this spot. Reasoning: With Arizona coming back on Wednesday night, Anaheim has absolutely nothing to “look past” too. Detroit on the other hand will be playing the second game of the back-to-back after a tough one in LA on Sunday night. This one has blowout written all over it, lay the price.
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10-08-18 | Redskins +6 v. Saints | Top | 19-43 | Loss | -108 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
analysis coming |
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10-08-18 | Astros v. Indians -116 | Top | 11-3 | Loss | -116 | 14 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s do or die for the underachieving Indians. I like the home side to find a way to get the job done in the elimination situation. The visitors hand the ball to Dallas Keuchel, while the home side goes with Mike Clevinger. The pitchers: Keuchel finished 12-11 with a 3.74 ERA. After a shaky first half, Keuchel settled down in the second. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about the crafty southpaw, I simply feel that he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Clevinger is so far 13-8 with a 3.02 ERA. In 2017 Clevinger was 12-6 with a 3.11 ERA. His peripherals clearly suggest that he’s for real. Clevinger has been “lights out” at home as well by going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA. The pick: Note as well that Clevinger has been even better in all “day” games by going 7-2 with a 2.04 ERA. And take it for what you will, but note that the Tribe are 7-2 in their last nine National League day home games in which they’re a favorite in the -105 to -145 range. Play on Cleveland. |
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10-07-18 | Red Wings v. Kings -185 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 26 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: Detroit enters off a 3-2 OT loss at home to the Blue Jackets, while LA enters off a 3-2 home loss to the Sharks. I don’t think that home ice advantage can be overlooked as a deciding factor in this particular match-up. The teams: Detroit looked poor in its Opening Night loss, getting outshot 39-20. Last year the Wings were 28th in the league in scoring with 2.59 GPG, while ranked 24th in the league in goals allowed by giving up 3.10 GPG. Jimmy Howard was 7-17 with a 3.13 GAA on the road last year. LA was ranked 16th in the league in scoring last year with 2.89 GPG, while ranked No. 1 in goals allowed with just 2.46. Goaltender Jon Quick is 17-16 with a 2.29 GAA at home last year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 9-3 in its last 12 vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400, while Detroit is only 16-36 in its last 52 when playing on two days rest. The home team is 12-4 the last 16 in this series. Expect that strong trend to continue in this clear mismatch. Lay the price. |
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10-07-18 | Cowboys v. Texans -3 | Top | 16-19 | Push | 0 | 28 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams won last week, but I think the Texans will find a way to defend their home field. Dallas held on for a 26-24 home win over Detroit, while Houston prevailed 37-34 in OT over the Colts. The teams: Despite last week’s decent effort, the Cowboys are still averaging only 16.8 PPG. The team’s strength is clearly on the defensive side of the ball as it’s allow only 19.2 PPG. Dak Prescott had 255 yards and two TD’s last week, while Ezekiel Elliot had 152 rushing yards. Houston QB DeShaun Watson had 375 yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. Like their counterparts today though, the Texans’ have struggled at times on both sides of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 5-2 ATS in its last seven after scoring 37 or more points in its previous contest, while Dallas is just 12-26-1 ATS in its last 39 on field turf. Lay the points. |
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10-07-18 | Brewers v. Rockies -143 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -143 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The MLB Divisional Series is the best of five and if the Rockies want to live to see another day, they have to win this game. Down 2-0 and with its back against the wall, I look for Colorado to rally and find a way to push this series to a Game 4. The visitors hand the ball to Wade Miley and the home side goes with German Marquez. The pitchers: Miley finished 5-2 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.21 WHIP over 80.2 frames of work this season. Miley’s had plenty of success against the Rockies throughout his career as well. It’s difficult to say anything negative about Miley, so let’s not bother trying. He’s simply in the wrong place at the wrong time in this one. Marquez finished 14-11 with a 3.77 ERA and 1.20 WHIP. Marquez has had varying success against the Brewers, dominating them in one match-up this year and getting destroyed in the other. The pick: But Colorado is home and it’s playing for its life. It averaged 5.5 runs at home and the Rockies have been consistent against left-handed starters this year as well, leading the majors in runs scored against southpaws as well as the NL with a .799 OPS vs. lefties. Lay the price.
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10-07-18 | Raiders v. Chargers UNDER 53 | Top | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 24 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Each team comes in off a high-scoring, hard-fought victory last week and I believe they come in “gassed.” The Raiders held on for a 45-42 OT win over the Browns, while the Chargers held on for a 29-27 home victory over a San Francisco team which was using its back-up QB. The teams: The Raiders got a big game from Derek Carr last week, but overall the Oakland offense has been inconsistent this year. Marshawn Lynch though has been a pleasant surprise, as he’d go for 130 yards last week and he now has 300 yards total along with three major scores. The defense has been hit or miss this season as well, looking horrible last week. However, I think it does indeed catch a break here facing what I believe to be a tired Chargers side. LA is averaging 27.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30 PPG. Clearly that’s not a recipe for success. The Bolts have never had issues putting points on the board with Philip Rivers under center (he so far has 11 TD’s and two INT’s), but if the team hopes to take “the next step,” clearly its going to have to get things figured out on the defensive side of the ball. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Oakland has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last six as a road dog in the 3.5 to 7 points range, while LA has seen the total go “under” seven of its last ten against clubs with losing records. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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10-07-18 | Titans v. Bills +5.5 | Top | 12-13 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Tennessee comes in tired in my opinion after its 26-23 OT win over Philadelphia, while the Bills come in focused and hungry after their humbling 22-0 road loss in Green Bay. Clearly the “outright” isn’t out of the question, but I’m grabbing the points in a game which I envision coming right down to the wire. The teams: The Titans are averaging only 18.8 PPG, but they’re allowing just 18.2. Last week they had to rally from a 17-3 deficit to knock off the defending champs. QB Marcus Marriota was a stand out with 344 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. The defense is the strength of the team, but it looked pretty pedestrian last week in allowing 315 passing yards. The Bills are averaging only 12.5 PPG while allowing 26.5. So far rookie QB Josh Allen has 666 passing yards and a 2/4 TD:INT. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but Tennessee is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range and only 6-11 ATS when playing against a team with a losing record, while Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine home games after getting shutout in its previous outing. I think the more “desperate” team takes this one down to the wire. Grab the points. |
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10-07-18 | Giants +7 v. Panthers | Top | 31-33 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Carolina enters off its bye week and I think it’ll get caught flat-footed here, just enough to allow the desperate Giants to sneak in through the back door. The teams: New York is averaging 18.2 PPG and it’s struggled on the defensive side of the ball as well. Hence the 1-3 record. RB Saquon Barkley has been a bright spot though, he so far has 453 yards from scrimmage. Fortunately for the Giants they face a Carolina offense which is averaging just 203.7 yards passing per game. The defense is weak against the run as well, allowing 110 yards per game on 4.93 yards per carry. The pick: And that doesn’t bode well facing Barkley and this underachieving Giants offense. Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 0-4 ATS in its last four home games as a favorite in the 3.5 to seven points range. Expect a battle to the end and grab the points. |
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10-07-18 | Jaguars v. Chiefs OVER 49 | Top | 14-30 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Jacksonville comes in off a 31-12 home win over the Jets last week, while KC enters off a 27-23 road win over Denver. I think these AFC heavyweights “throw down” on Sunday. The teams: So far Jacksonville is averaging only 22 points, while allowing just 14. That’s first in the NFL. However, the Jags’ defense is about to face its stiffest test to date. Blake Bortles look great last week and he’s going to benefit in facing this porous Chiefs’ secondary this afternoon. KC leads the NFL with an average of 36.2 PPG. The Chiefs need to score a lot of points though, as the defense is allowing 28.8 PPG. So far QB Patrick Mahomes has a 14:0 TD/INT. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Jacksonville has seen the total go “over” the number in 11 of its last 16 when the line in the contest is set between +3 and -3, while KC has seen the total go “over” in three of its last four off a win against a division rival. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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10-06-18 | Washington State -17 v. Oregon State | Top | 56-37 | Win | 100 | 58 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington State is ranked third in the PAC 12 North, while Oregon State is in second to last place after losing its second straight conference game last weekend. Suffice it to say, I’m expecting a complete blowout from start to finish here. The teams: WSU comes in off a 28-24 win over Utah last week. QB Gardner Minshew was 31 of 56 for 445 yards with three TD’s and one INT. The “Air Raid” offense is averaging 39 PPG and the defense is stout as well, allowing just 21.2 PPG and 274 yards of total offense. Oregon State enters off a 52-24 loss to Arizona State last weekend. The Beavers are averaging 30.4 PPG and they’re allowing an atrocious 45.2.RB Jermar Jefferson had 254 yards and two TD’s in a losing cause last weekend. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon State is just 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS loss, while Washington State is 4-1 ATS in its last five following a straight up. This one has “blowout” written all over it. Lay the points.
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10-06-18 | Notre Dame v. Virginia Tech +7 | Top | 45-23 | Loss | -110 | 57 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Notre Dame has yet to lose, most recently coming off a win over Stanford this past weekend. Virginia Tech is 3-1, it’s one loss coming in a major upset to ODU. While I’m not calling for the outright, I do think this one will be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. The teams: Notre Dame QB Ian Book had 325 yards passing, two TD’s and no INT’s in the 38-17 win over the Cardinal last weekend. Book has a strong supporting cast and the defense has been impressive as well. It’s not going to be easy, but VT is no slouch either. The Hokies come in off a convincing 31-14 win over Duke last weekend. QB Ryan Willis had 332 yards and three TD’s, while the defense held the Blue Devils to just 327 total yards, including only 71 on the ground. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Notre Dame is still just 4-5 ATS in its last nine on the road and only 14-15 ATS in its last 29 non-conference games, while VT is 8-5 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records and 8-5 ATS in its last 13 non-conference games. Grab the points.
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10-06-18 | Washington v. UCLA +21.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 57 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: Chip Kelly and UCLA are 0-4 to open the year, most recently falling 38-16 at Colorado last Friday. Washington comes to town off a 44-23 win over BYU and I think it gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today. The teams: Washington comes in complacent in my opinion after four straight victories of the “rocking chair” variety. Last week QB Jake Browning had 277 yards and a TD, while the run game produced 187 yards. The Huskies allow just 11.6 PPG. UCLA starting QB Wilson Speight was injured in the first game and it’s taken the team some time to adjust. Backup Dorian Thompson-Robinson has been decent, last week he was 17 of 35 for 138 yards and for the year he has 660 yards, three TD’s and two picks. One bright spot was the play of RB Joshua Kelley, who had 151 yards last week. The pick: Washington’s weakness on defense? Against the run, allowing 126 YPG (ranked 40th.) I’m banking on the more desperate team keeping this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. |
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10-06-18 | Senators v. Maple Leafs -1.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Maple Leafs survived a scare on Opening Night with a 3-2 OT victory over Montreal and it’s had two whole nights off to prepare for this one. The Leafs will be leaving everything on the line tonight, because tomorrow they embark on a tough five-game road trip starting in Chicago. Ottawa on the other hand comes in off a disheartening 4-3 OT loss to the Blackhawks at home and with a tough game in Boston on Monday, I think the visitors also get caught looking ahead here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Toronto is 7-2 in its last nine home games as a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 goals and expect a rout. |
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10-06-18 | Old Dominion v. Florida Atlantic -13.5 | Top | 33-52 | Win | 100 | 54 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: ODU is coming off a 37-35 road loss to ECU last Saturday and I think it’ll stumble here as well after that disheartening setback. FAU is looking to bounce back after a 25-24 loss to MTSU on the road, its second straight setback. The teams: The Monarchs enter averaging 27.8 PPG and allowing 36. QB Steven Williams is 41 of 81 for 507 yards with two TD’s and two INT’s, while Blake LaRussa has 928 yards with seven TD’s and one INT. FAU has lost two straight. Overall the Owls are averaging 31.2 PPG and allowing 39.8. QB Chris Robison has 1,077 passing yards with five TD’s so far this year as swell as six INT’s and another 118 rushing yards and a major score. Devin Singletary leads the ground game 459 yards and 12 TD’s already. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but ODU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven against teams with losing records, while FAU is 5-1 ATS in its last six after posting less then 170 passing yards in its previous contest. FAU destroyed ODU 58-28 on the road last year and I’m expecting a similar sort of blowout here as well. Lay the points. |
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10-06-18 | LSU v. Florida +2 | Top | 19-27 | Win | 100 | 53 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a cross-division battle between SEC teams on Saturday afternoon. No. 5 LSU is at The Swamp to take on No. 22 Florida and while I wouldn’t be shocked by an outright upset, I will in the end recommend grabbing the points as I expect this to be a complete “nail biter!” The teams: LSU is poised for a letdown here finally in my estimation after the perfect 5-0 start. Last week it smashed Mississippi 45-16 with QB Joe Burrow posting 388 yards of offense to go along with four TD’s. Will the Tigers get caught looking ahead here as well? With upcoming games against No. 2 Georgia next week and Mississippi State on October 20th before its showdown in Baton Rouge on Nov. 3rd, it’s not out of the realm of possibility, that’s for sure. Note that Burrow is still just 53.4 percent for the season with his passing. Florida is 4-1 and it managed a 13-6 win over then No. 23 Mississippi State last Saturday. The Gators defense was outstanding and I expect the unit to be a difference maker here as well. Last week it held Mississippi State to just 202 total yards of offense. Franks didn’t throw a TD for the first time this year, but he still went 22 of 31 for 219 yards. He has 12 TD’s and three INT’s on the year. The pick: LSU has already beaten a pair of AP Top 10 opponents in Miami and Auburn, but earning a second road win of the season over a ranked opponent for the first time since 2011 is a tall order in my opinion. Take it for what you will as well, but LSU is 2-3 ATS in its last five when the line in the game is set between +3 and -3, while Florida is 6-2 ATS in its last eight off a win over a conference rival. Grab the points.
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10-06-18 | Ohio v. Kent State +13 | Top | 27-26 | Win | 100 | 53 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m not predicting an outright upset, but I think that Ohio gets caught looking past its lowly opponent today. The teams: Ohio comes in off a 58-42 track-meet victory over UMass and I think it’ll come out flat here after that exhausting affair. Rourke had 459 yards himself, including a career high 189 with a TD on the ground, while also throwing for three others. Last week the Golden Flashes lost 54-24 to Ball State. Ken State has the worst defense in the nation, but those numbers are a little skewed due to the competition in my opinion. Overall the offense is averaging 25.8 points, with QB Woody Barrett going for 1,140 yards, five TD’s and five picks. The pick: With a game at West leading NIU next weekend, I do indeed believe the Bobcats will let the foot off the gas enough in this one to let the home side comfortably sneak in through the back door. Grab the points.
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10-06-18 | Newcastle United v. Manchester United -224 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are struggling right now, but Man U’s issues are both on and off the field. Despite that I think the Red Devils will finally get off the schneid here with their best effort of the season. The teams: Man U loss to West Ham last weekend and then drew to a goalless draw with Spain based Valencia in Champions League action this week. Fortunately for Man-U they face a Newcastle side which has not won in seven games. The pick: Note that this is a revenge game as well for the Red Devils, after Newcastle took the meeting 1-0 last February. Despite all of its issues, Man U is still the better, deeper and more skilled team. Look for these players to finally get back on track with a convincing effort. Lay the price. |
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10-06-18 | East Carolina v. Temple -10.5 | Top | 6-49 | Win | 100 | 49 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an AAC conference battle from Lincoln Financial Field. ECU comes in off a thrilling 37-35 win over ODU last weekend and I think it’ll have a predictable “letdown” here after moving to .500 with that victory. Temple on the other hand will be looking to take out its frustrations on someone after battling hard and com in yup short in a loss at Boston College last weekend. The teams: Reid Herring suffered an ankle injury in last week’s win over ODU, but the QB isn’t expected to miss anytime. He’s only competed 54 percent of his passes and he owns a weak 6:5 TD/INT ratio. Overall ECU averages 28.5 PPG. The Owls are not having any issues scoring points, posting at least 31 in their last three games. Last week they came up short in a 45-35 setback at Boston College though. Ryquell Armstead had 171 yards on 24 carries with four TD’s and I have a hard time seeing this suspect Pirates defensive line slowing down the red hot RB. The pick: The Owls’ defense catches a break this week. Look for Temple to put the foot on the gas from start to finish and for the Pirates to stumble after its big win last weekend. Lay the points. |
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10-05-18 | Sharks v. Kings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose lost 5-2 to Anaheim on Opening Night, an uncharacteristically poor start from goaltender Martin Jones. But I think we’ll see San Jose play a much tighter and more disciplined game here. LA opens its season tonight, looking to get back to the playoffs after getting bounced by Las Vegas in the first round. The teams: San Jose’s Jones will look to bounce back here and he has to be feeling confident as he’s 9-5 with a 2.06 GAA lifetime against the Kings. He’s also 59-50 with a 2.45 GAA lifetime away from friendly confines. LA counters with Jonathan Quick, who finished 33-31 with a 2.40 GAA last year and who is 15-16 with a 2.52 GAA lifetime against the Sharks. The pick: San Jose played terrible defense in its opener, but as I stated off the top, I think the team returns to form here. The stage is set for a classic goaltenders duel on Friday night. Play the “under.”
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10-05-18 | Utah State +2.5 v. BYU | Top | 45-20 | Win | 100 | 34 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: I absolutely believe that an outright win is possible here, but I’m still going to recommend grabbing the points. BYU has improved dramatically on the defensive side of the ball and it does have the “revenge” factor working in its favor today, but I still don’t think it’ll be enough to keep pace with the high-flying Aggies. Last year Utah State won 40-24 at home in this game. The teams: Utah State is rested, coming into this one off its bye week. The Aggies have won four straight, most recently a 42-32 home victory over Air Force. Overall Utah State is averaging 51.5 PPG and allowing only 23.8. QB Jordan Love has 1,070 yards and a 5/3 TD:INT (although no INT’s in the last two games.) Despite being smashed 35-7 last week by the No. 11 Huskies, the Cougars still concede just 20.6 PPG, which ranks them 35th in the country. However, the offense is the weak point, a unit which ranks near the bottom of many offensive categories. QB Tanner Mangum has 772 passing yards and 3:2 TD/INT (the offense does focus mainly on the ground game.) The pick: Take it for what you will though, but note that BYU is just 7-19 ATS in its last 26 after posting less than 170 passing yards in their previous game and just 2-7 ATS in its last nine at home overall, while Utah State is a sharp 4-1 ATS in its last five away from friendly confines. The Aggies are well balanced on offense and they’re also well rested. The Utah State defense is improved from last year as well. As mentioned off the top, as good as the Cougars have looked on the defensive side of the ball this year, the offense has been a major disappointment. Grab the points, but don’t be surprised by an outright upset! |
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10-05-18 | Georgia Tech -4.5 v. Louisville | Top | 66-31 | Win | 100 | 32 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: The Louisville Cardinals are in a “free fall” right now, losers of two straight, most recently against Virginia and FSU. Georgia Tech is just 1-3, but it comes in with some momentum after beating Bowling Green this past weekend. The teams: Georgia Tech is 3-2 in its last five in having to play on a short week. QB TaQuon Marshall has rushed for at least one TD in all five games this year. So far in total he has seven rushing and two passing TD’s. The Yellow Jackets most recently steamrolled Bowling Green 63-17 this past Saturday and I think the team carries that momentum over here. Tobias Oliver was another standout with 115 yards rushing and two TD’s. Louisville is struggling to find its No. 1 QB still, as head coach Bobby Petrino has been switching between Malik Cunningham and Jawon Pass. Pass would play the entire game last week in the loss to the Seminoles, going 24 of 45 for 306 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s. He also fumbled the ball three times. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but GT is 11-8 ATS in its last 19 when playing with six or less days rest and interestingly 6-2 ATS in its last eight games played in Weeks 5 through 9, while Louisville is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight October games and only 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. Look for the Georgia Tech up-tempo offense to prove be too much for the Cardinals to keep up to. Lay the points. |
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10-05-18 | Rockies v. Brewers OVER 8 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: While yesterday’s game stayed “under” in the Brewers’ 3-2 win, I’m expecting more of a “slug-fest” between these hard-hitting clubs on Friday afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Tyler Anderson, while the home side turns to Jhoulys Chacin. The teams: Anderson finished the regular season an unremarkable 7-9 with a 4.55 ERA. Anderson admittedly looked a lot better over September, but I’ll point out that he still owns a poor 5.02 ERA on the road this year. Chacin finished 15-8 with a 3.50 ERA. Chacin started the tie-breaker against the Cubs and while his team came out on top of that one, I think the quick turn-around here isn’t going to help the veteran. It’s difficult to say too many negative things about Chacin, so I won’t even bother trying. It’s just a bad spot in m opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League day road games in which it’s an underdog on the +150 to +160 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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10-05-18 | Indians +1.5 v. Astros | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -165 | 25 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: Each club sends its ace to the mound. The Tribe hand the ball to Corey Kluber, well the defending champs go with Justin Verlander. I think Verlander and the Astros will find a way to get the job done here. The teams: Kluber went 20-7 with a 2.89 ERA and 0.99 WHIP over 215 innings of work. He’s had plenty of success on the road (9-4) this season and against the Astros throughout his career, posting a 2.83 ERA and 6-3 record. Verlander hasn’t fared as well against the Tribe though, holding a 20-24, 4.71 ERA over 52 career starts. This season though he’d finish with a 16-9 record to go along with a 2.52 ERA and 0.90 WHIP. The pick: Also note that over 22 career postseason appearances, Verlander owns a sharp 3.07 ERA. His counterpart though can’t say the same thing, as last year in the playoffs Kluber was rocked for nine runs off ten hits over two starts vs. the Bronx Bombers. Verlander was 4-1 with a 2.21 ERA and 0.82 WHIP in 36.2 innings in the 2017 playoffs. Also note that the Astros bullpen led the entire league this year with a 3.03 ERA, while the Indians were ranked 25th with a poor 4.60 ERA. Lay the price. |
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10-04-18 | Braves v. Dodgers -170 | Top | 0-6 | Win | 100 | 23 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s Game 1 of the NLDS on Thursday from Chavez Ravine. Atlanta goes with Mike Foltynewicz, while the home side goes with Hyun-Jin Ryu. I’m predicting no upsets here on Thursday night. The teams: Foltynewicz finished with a 2.85 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over 183 innings. In his only start against the Dodgers this year though he looked bad, giving up four runs (including two dingers), over five innings in a 4-1 loss. In fact, over 11.1 career innings Foltynewicz has given up seven runs against LA. Over 15 starts Ryu posted a 7-3 records along with a 1.97 ERA and 1.01 WHIP. Ryu has dominated the Braves throughout his career, holding them to six runs over 18.1 innings (2.95 ERA.) The pick: Ryu has done well in three playoff starts, posting a 2.81 ERA and a 1-0 record over 16 innings. In contrast, this will be Foltynewic’s first playoff start ever. Take it for what you will as well, but LA is 4-1 in its last five home starts by Ryu, while the Braves are just 1-4 in Foltynewicz’s last five starts against teams with winning records. Lay the price, expect a rout. |
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10-04-18 | Colts +10.5 v. Patriots | Top | 24-38 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pats broke a two-game slide with a 38-7 win over Miami last Sunday, while the Colts came up on the short end of the stick in a 37-34 OT setback at Houston last Sunday. These teams haven’t played since 2015. The teams: Indianapolis had a 478-466 edge in offense last week, but it just wasn’t to be in the end. QB Andrew Luck so far has 1,126 yards, nine TD’s and three INT’s. Adam Vinatieri continues to be a steady source of production as well, hitting all eight extra points and eight nine field goals with a long of 51. The Pats smashed the Dolphins last week with a 449-172 yardage advantage. So far QB Tom Brady has an unremarkable 918 yards with nine TD’s and four INT’s. RB Sony Michels has 196 yards and a TD. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Indianapolis is 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range (including 2-0 ATS this season) and 9-7 ATS in its last 16 on the road (including 2-0 ATS this year), while New England is a horrible 0-4 ATS in its last four as a home favorite in the 7.5 to ten points range. I think Luck will match Brady. Grab the points. |
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10-04-18 | Tulsa v. Houston -17.5 | Top | 26-41 | Loss | -110 | 22 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulsa enter off a listless 31-17 loss to Temple on the road last time out, so a well rested and high-powered Houston Cougars team will look to take advantage. The home side comes in off its bye, but previous tot that it destroyed Texas Southern 70-14. The teams: The Golden Hurricane average 24 PPG and they allow 28.8. QB Like Skipper has four TD’s and six INT’s, while RB Shamari Brooks is a bright spot with 375 yards rushing and four TD’s. Houston is averaging 52.2 PPG and it’s conceding 30.5. Defense is the weak point, but the unit catches a break today facing Tulsa’s impotent offense. QB D’Eriq King so far has 1,197 yards passing with 15 TD’s, one INT, to go along with 107 rushing yards and five more TD’s. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is 4-0 ATS in its last four home games against a team with a losing road record, while Tulsa is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following a SU loss. When these teams played last year it was Houston that pulled away for the simple 45-17 road victory. Now that the Cougars are playing at home, I’m expecting an even bigger rout. Lay the points. |
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10-04-18 | Capitals v. Penguins -145 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Washington plays at home against Boston in a tough game on Wednesday night. The Penguins were eliminated by the Capitals in the playoffs last year and they’ll look to take advantage of this favorable spot. The pick: It’s the beginning of the season and because of that, I’ll base my selections on the overall “situation” most often. And there’s no doubt that this one sets up beautifully for Sidney Crosby and the home side. Take it for what you will as well by the Pens are 8-2 in their last ten home games vs. an Eastern Conference team as a favorite in the -140 to -180 range. Play on Pittsburgh. |
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10-04-18 | Bruins v. Sabres +120 | Top | 4-0 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s the start of the season, so I mainly base my picks on the overall “situation.” I think this is a great spot to pull the trigger on the hungry home side on the “puck line.” Boston plays the second game of a back-to-back here after contending with the defending champs on Opening Night. The pick: The Sabres were bad last year, but they made significant improvement over the previous season. The team should once again make strides this year as well. Buffalo was much better at home than on the road and in a contest which I envision ending late or even in extra time, I’m going to recommend the home team. |
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10-03-18 | Ducks v. Sharks -165 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -165 | 28 h 1 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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10-03-18 | Flames v. Canucks +113 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 113 | 28 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a pair of teams from the Pacific Division squaring off in Vancouver on Opening Night. Neither team played well last year. Vancouver lost the Sedin twins over the Summer and while that’s definitely a good thing for the team in the long-term, in the short-term it erases 33% of their points getters from last year. Calgary returns its main core of players. The Flames achilles heel over the last decade though and certainly last season was their play on the road, and I think the team will stumble here against Vancouver’s young and hungry group. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Flames are just 25-37 (-17.7 units) against the division the last three years, while Vancouver is 4-1 in its last five as a home dog in the +105 to +125 range. I’m banking on the Canucks finding a way to get the job done on Opening Night at home. |
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10-03-18 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -215 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 25 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s a pair of teams from the Atlantic division squaring off here. Montreal was a disaster last season and I think it’s in well over its head here. The Leafs are now stacked from front to back and I look for them to make an example of the Habs on Opening Night. The teams: Montreal missed the postseason for a second straight year last year and all signs point to another mess in 2018/19. Shea Weber is out till X-Mas, but the team does have some talent in Max Domi, Tomas Plekanec and Tomas Tatar. Carey Price is back in net and he was 16-26-7 with a 3.00 GAA last year. Toronto made it to the playoffs for a second year in a row last year and it scored the most points in franchise history last year with a 105. The team kept it’s core, but then went an added offensive standout John Tavares from the Islanders as well over the off-season. Goaltender Frederik Anderson was 21-5-5 with a 2.81 GAA last season. The pick: Toronto outscored Montreal 14-2 in the final three meetings last year. The Habs have their work cut out for them here. Take it for what you will as well, but the Leafs are 23-8 in their last 31 at home, while Montreal is just 9-27 in its last 36 against the Eastern Conference. I have no problems laying this larger price.
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10-02-18 | Rockies v. Cubs UNDER 7 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams had a chance yesterday in their divisional tie-breakers, but each came up short. Colorado lost 5-2 to the Dodgers and it now flies across the country to face the Cubs, who lost 3-1 to the Brewers. The winner of this Wild Card contest will fly to Milwaukee for the NLDS. Both teams struggled to plate runs yesterday and I think that’ll be the case again here as well. The visitors go with Kyle Freeland, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Freeland finished the regular season 17-7 with a 2.85 ERA. He went 5-0 in September and he’s 9-1 with a 2.41 ERA in 14 starts since the Mid-Summer Classic. He’s 0-2 with a 4.15 ERA lifetime against Chicago, but that was then and this is now. Lester finished the reg. season 18-6 with a 3.32 ERA. He has won his past three starts and four of his five in September overall. In five career starts against the Rockies he’s 1-3 with a sharp 2.25 ERA.
The pick: I think this situation favors these red hot starters. Look for Freeland and Lester to battle deep and for this one to fall “under” once it’s all said and done. |
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10-01-18 | Chiefs -3.5 v. Broncos | Top | 27-23 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chiefs are 3-0 and feature the most explosive offense in the league. While the defense has been a weak point, KC catches a break this week facing the inconsistent Broncos. I think the Chiefs keep the foot on the gas in Week 4 and pull away down the stretch for a comfortable cover. The teams: KC is seventh in total offense with 398.3 YPG.Denver is 21st in the league in pass defense, allowing 262.7 YPG through the air. The Chiefs already have 15 pass plays that covered at least 20 yards this season. Broncos’ QB Case Keenum has three TD’s and five INT’s and his passing yards have declined each week (last week he was 22 of 34 for 173 yards and an INT in the loss to the Ravens.) The pick: The Chiefs are 4-1 ATS in their last five MNF contests, while Denver is just 2-7-2 ATS in its last 11 MNF appearances. Lay the points and expect a rout, play on Kansas City. |
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10-01-18 | Rockies v. Dodgers -160 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: LA is looking to win a sixth consecutive NL West title, but to do that it’s going to have to knock off the Rockies in the Wild Card. The visitors hand the ball to the competent German Marquez, and the home side goes with the competent Walker Buehler. The pitchers: Marquez finished the regular season 14-10 with a 3.76 ERA. He threw well against LA this year, posting a 2.57 ERA with 22 strikeouts over 21 frames of work. Marquez has been better on the road than at home, but note that no matter where he’s been, he’s been poor in all “day” games, coming in with the sub-par 4-6, 5.16 ERA record. Buehler finished 7-5 with a 2.56 ERA. Since July 31st he’s posted a tiny 1.70 ERA over 11 starts (one of which included a 12 strikeout game against these very Rockies!) Over five starts this year against Colorado Buehler comes in with the elite 2.61 ERA, 0.97 WHIP record. The pick: I don’t think that friendly confines can be overlooked as a deciding factor here, as note that LA is 7-2 in its last nine National League day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -175 range. Play on the Dodgers.
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09-30-18 | Ravens v. Steelers -3 | Top | 26-14 | Loss | -115 | 80 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Pittsburgh comes in off a big win over the Bucs last week, but it’ll still be desperate to avoid a 1-3 start. Baltimore though has struggled on the road over the last few years and after beating the Broncos at home last week, I think it’ll predictably stumble here. The teams: Ravens’ RB Alex Collins has yet to post a 100 yard game and Baltimore ranks among the worst rushing offenses in the league. QB Joe Flacco continues to look decent one game and horrible the next. Pittsburgh has struggled against the run, but Baltimore’s one-dimensional offense isn’t going to fool the home side I don’t think tonight. Pittsburgh had/has plenty of off-field drama to contend with with player hold-outs, but it took a big step in the right direction in last weeks convincing victory over Tampa Bay. Big Ben looked sharp under center and I think the pivot carries that momentum over here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is just 1-4 ATS in its last five against teams with losing records. I think Flacco struggles in this difficult venue and I look for Roethlisberger and company to step up on the National stage. Lay the points. |
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09-30-18 | 49ers v. Chargers -10 | Top | 27-29 | Loss | -110 | 76 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 1-2 and each will be hungry for a victory here. The only difference is, the 49ers lost the services of starting QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the remainder of the season to injury last week. I think veteran QB Phillip Rivers takes full advantage and puts the pressure on the visitors from start to finish. The teams: San Fran enters off a 38-27 loss to KC. Not only is Garoppolo out, but so too is defensive specialist Richard Sherman with a quad injury. LA comes in off a 12 point loss to the Rams. Rivers already has 906 yards, eight TD’s and one INT, while Melvin Gordon has 172 yards and two scores on the ground. WR Keenan Allen has 219 receiving yards and a TD as well. The pick: Take it for what you will, but LA is 7-1-1 ATS in its last nine after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game, while San Fran is interestingly just 1-8 ATS in its last nine after posting more than 150 yards rushing in its previous outing. Look for the Chargers to go straight for the jugular. Lay the points. |
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09-30-18 | Dolphins +7.5 v. Patriots | Top | 7-38 | Loss | -140 | 72 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: Miami is 3-0 to open the season and it’ll be looking to kick New England when its down. The Pats enter off a horrible 26-10 road loss to Detroit and I think they’re ripe for the picking here. The outright isn’t out of the question. Note that New England took the first game last season 35-17, before the Fish countered with a 27-20 home win in the second. The teams: Miami’ QB Ryan Tannehill had 289 passing yards and three TD’s in a victory over the Raiders. He now has 687 passing yards and a 7:2 TD/INT. WR Kenny Still had 61 receiving yards last week and overall he has 184. Miami is averaging 25 PPG and it’s allowing 17.3 (good for sixth.) New England’s season will essentially be over if it falls to 1-3. Miami can smell the blood in the water and will look to take advantage of a Patriots team which is averaging 19 PPG and allowing 25.7 (21st overall). The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Pats are just 1-4 ATS in their last five after posting less than 150 passing yards in their previous game, while the Fish are 4-1 ATS in their last five following a SU victory. “The Changing Of The Guard” is happening right before our eyes. Get ready for it. But grab the points just in case! |
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09-30-18 | Texans v. Colts -1 | Top | 37-34 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Houston enters off a 27-22 home loss to the Giants, while Indianapolis returns home after a 20-16 loss to the Eagles. Note that the Colts took both meetings from the Texans last year. And that was without Andrew Luck. The teams: While the Texans rank eighth in the NFL in YPG with an average of 396.3, that production has not translated into much scoring so far. Houston is essentially already out of playoff contention after starting the year 0-3. QB DeShaun Watson has a 5:3 TD/INT. Last week the defense surrendered 379 total yards. The Texans average 19.7 points and they allow 24.7. Indianapolis is averaging 20 PPG and it’s allowing 21. Luck has 662 passing yards and a 5:3 TD/INT. TY Hilton so far has 179 receiving yards. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Houston is just 4-7 ATS in its last 11 against teams with losing records, while Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last nine against clubs with losing records. With a chance to stick a final nail in the Texans coffin, I look for Luck and the home side to find a way to get the job done here.
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09-30-18 | Bills +10.5 v. Packers | Top | 0-22 | Loss | -120 | 72 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo comes in off a commanding 27-6 road win over Minnesota last week and I think it’ll carry that confidence and momentum over here. Green Bay comes in dejected after it’s 31-17 road loss to Washington. The teams: Buffalo is averaging 16.7 PPG and it’s allowing 28. Those numbers are a bit skewed though I think after two really horrible games to open the season. With QB Josh Allen finally getting comfortable, clearly the Bills looked a lot better last week. Allen was 15 of 22 for 196 yards, one TD and he also added two more rushing TD’s. The defense also rebounded in a big way and it’ll have some opportunities to make some plays today too I think. Packers’ QB Aaron Rodgers had 265 passing yards with two TD’s. He played with a brace on his knee and he was seen many times hobbling around. The run game mustered a paltry 87 yards. overall the Pack is averaging 23.3 PPG and it’s allowing 27.7. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Green Bay is just 4-9 ATS in its last 13 following a SU loss, while Buffalo is 8-2 ATS in its last ten after allowing less than 15 points in its previous contest. I’ll even recommend “sprinkling a little” on the money line. That said, grab the points! |
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09-29-18 | Oregon -2.5 v. California | Top | 42-24 | Win | 100 | 59 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Cal comes in a tiny bit complacent here after three straight victories over UNC, BYU and Idaho State. Oregon on the other hand is looking to bounce back after falling 38-31 in OT at home to Stanford this past weekend. The teams: The Ducks led 31-28 with 51 second last week, but they weren’t able to hold on for the victory. It was an unfortunate series of events that led to the setback, but with that awkwardness out of the way, I’m expecting a return to form here. Cal has so far looked pretty good defensively in not allowing more than 23 points in any game this year, but clearly it faces its stiffest test yet in Oregon’s high-flying offense. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon if 4-2 ATS i its last six off a loss against a conference rival, while Cal is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 against teams with winning records. Lay the points.
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09-29-18 | Diamondbacks -128 v. Padres | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 17 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Zack Godley and the hard-hitting visiting side offer great value in this matchup. The home side sends Jacob Nix to the hill. The pitchers: Godley is so far 14-11 with a 4.75 ERA. He’s had an up and down season, but after a shaky first half, he’s looked a lot better in the second. Note that he’s 12-7 with a 3.90 ERA in all night games. Nix is so far 2-4 with a 6.81 ERA. He comes in off a decent outing against the Rangers on Sunday, but overall he’s been a disaster (especially in all “night” games with a 2-3, 6.04 ERA) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Diego is just 2-7 in its last nine National League night home games in which it’s an underdog in the -150 to -225 range. Lay the price, play on Arizona. |
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09-29-18 | Stanford v. Notre Dame OVER 52 | Top | 17-38 | Win | 100 | 56 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cardinals enter off a 38-31 OT road win in Oregon and I think it’ll carry that offensive momentum over here. Notre Dame annihilated Wake Forest 56-27 and it’ll be out to push the pace as well. Note that these teams played to a higher-scoring affair last year as well when Stanford won 38-20. The teams: Cardinal’ QB KJ Costello was 19 of 26 for 327 yards, three TD’s and no INT’s in last week’s win. Stanford is 47th in the country in passing at 264 YPG. RB Bryce Love had 89 yards and a TD last week. The defense has been super, allowing only 13.5 PPG, but clearly that units faces its stiffest test of the season. Notre Dame is 71st in passing and 66th in total offense with 416.5 YPG. Last week Ian Book threw for 325 yards and two TD’s without an INT in the victory over the Deacons. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Stanford has seen the total go “over” the number in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Notre Dame has seen the total go “over” the number in three of its last four against the Pac 12. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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09-29-18 | Rice +27 v. Wake Forest | Top | 24-56 | Loss | -104 | 53 h 28 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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09-29-18 | Cincinnati v. Connecticut +17.5 | Top | 49-7 | Loss | -106 | 52 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Cincinnati comes in complacent here at 3-0 and facing the lowly Huskies. UConn is just 1-3 following a setback against Syracuse last week but I expect it to keep this one competitive. The teams: Cincinnati comes in off an emotional come-from-behind win over Ohio last week, with QB Desmond Ridder going 19 of 29 for 274 yards and two TD’s. The Ground game is averaging 235.2 YPG so far. Connecticut ranks last in the FBS on defense, allowing 54.5 YPG. It’s difficult to say too many positive things about this team, as for the most part it’s struggled. It’s looked decent offensively though and I think it’ll have its opportunities again today against this disinterested Bearcats side. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Cincinnati is still just 2-8 ATS in its last ten as a favorite, while UConn is 6-4 ATS in its last ten against a team with a winning record. No outright, but a tight battle. Grab the points. |
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09-29-18 | Liverpool v. Chelsea | Top | 1-1 | Win | 257 | 24 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Liverpool is 6-0 in EPL action after getting the better of Southampton 3-0 last weekend. But Chelsea beat Liverpool 2-1 in the Carabao Cup on Wednesday. The Blues won’t be going down without a fight today and I think it’ll end up in a “draw” once it’s all said and done. Chelsea’s five game win streak came to an end in a goalless draw with West Ham last Sunday. The pick: Chelsea has only lost twice to Liverpool in its last 15 in the series (W6, D7, L2). Note that four of the last seven between these two have ended in draws. Everything points to another tight battle between these familiar clubs. Play on the “draw.” |
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09-29-18 | Bowling Green +28.5 v. Georgia Tech | Top | 17-63 | Loss | -106 | 48 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Georgia Tech is a massive favorite, but it’s still searching for its first victory of the year after falling 49-21 to No. 3 Clemson. Bowling Green is also looking to bounce back after falling 38-23 to Miami Ohio. The teams: Bowling Green QB Jarret Doege had 237 yards and two TD’s last week and he so far has a solid 10:4 TD/INT ratio. The defense actually took a step forward last week, allowing just 408 total yards. Georgia Tech is averaging just 29.8 PPG and it’s allowing 30.5. Senior QB TaQuon Marshall has 382 passing yards and a 2/4 TD:INT so far. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Bowling Green is 6-4 ATS in its last ten off a loss against a conference rival, while Georgia Tech is just 1-2 ATS in its last three against teams with losing records. Grab as many points as you can.
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09-28-18 | Diamondbacks -145 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -145 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. I think the talent gap on the hill tonight makes Patrick Corbin and the hard-hitting visiting side well worth the price of admission. The home side goes with rookie Eric Lauer. The pitchers: Corbin is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He comes in on top form, despite taking a loss against the Cubs in his last start, giving up three runs over six innings while striking out seven. The crafty southpaw hasn’t allowed more than three runs in a start since late July and to go along with his very respectable ERA, he also sports a sharp 1.03 WHiP to go along with a whopping 237 K’s. Lauer is so far 6-7 with a 4.60 ERA. Lauer has struggled to pitch deep into games and note that he’s just 3-3 with a 5.01 ERA on the road. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Arizona is 13-8 in its last 23 National League night road games as a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. I expect Corbin to come in razor focused. Lay the price. |
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09-28-18 | UCLA v. Colorado -8.5 | Top | 16-38 | Win | 100 | 52 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: UCLA is horrible, it’s 0-3 for the first time since 1971 following last week’s 38-14 home loss to Fresno State last Saturday. The team suffered more bad new with backup QB Devon Modster announced this week that he’s transferring. Colorado looks to deliver the knock out blow at home and improve to 4-0. The teams: UCLA has given up more than 400 yards of offense in every game this year, while averaging just 320. 13 of the team’s 41 Blue Chip recruits have left the team after Jim Mora was replaced by Jim Kelly at coach. Buffalo QB Steven Montez has 855 passing yards, eight TD’s and two picks so far this season. Last week the Buffs had 311 yards of rushing in a 45-14 destruction of New Hampshire. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Colorado is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU win of mor ethan 20 points, while UCLA is just 3-8 ATS in its last 11 conference game sand just 2-6 ATS in its last eight on the road. I don’t think the Bruins respond here at all. In fact, I as mentioned off the top, I look for the Buffs to kick this team while it’s down. Lay the points. |
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09-28-18 | Memphis -13.5 v. Tulane | Top | 24-40 | Loss | -109 | 51 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important early season AAC battle for Memphis, who will look to move to 4-1 overall and 1-1 in league action after beating South Alabama 52-35 on Saturday. Tulane enters off a humbling 49-6 loss to Ohio State last week. The Green Wave play with revenge today, but they’ve played with revenge ten other times in a row and come up empty each time. Memphis has indeed won 11 straight in this series, including a convincing 56-26 home win last year. The teams: Memphis RB Darrell Henderson had 188 yards and two TD’s last week and he now has 709 rushing yards and nine TD’s. QB Brady White had 292 passing yards and two TD’s as well and he already has 1,064 passing yards with 12 TD’s and just one pick. The defense struggled some last week, but overall it’s allowing just 317.2 YPG, which is ranked 24th in the country. The Green Wave posted just 263 total yards last week and allowed 570. That was against Ohio State, but the team faces another difficult task against the Tigers this week as well. The pick: Tulane QB Jonathan Banks has completed just 49.5 percent of his passes. The Green wave are just 4-5 ATS in their last nine after two or more consecutive SU losses as well. Additionally note that Memphis 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 10.5 to 21 points range. I’m banking on the “better” team pulling away down the stretch. Lay the points.
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09-27-18 | Vikings v. Rams OVER 49 | Top | 31-38 | Win | 100 | 27 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Vikes are 1-1-1 and they’ll be laying everything on the line on the short week to try and score the upset here and avoid the 1-2-1 hole. LA is 3-0 and it’ll be out to avoid any letdowns here and to keep the foot on the gas from start to finish. I think points are going to be plentiful. The teams: The Vikes beat the 49ers 24-16 at home in Week 1 and then followed that up with a hard-fought 29-29 tie with Green Bay on the road. But Minnesota comes into this one off a terrible 27-6 home loss to Buffalo, a game in which it was a 17 point favorite. Two critical first half fumbles didn’t help their cause obviously. Another loss here and Minnesota’s season is “on the ropes” essentially. The Rams would love nothing more than to deliver the “knock out blow” as well. LA beat the Raiders 33-13 on the road on MNF in Week 1, then followed it up with a 34-0 destruction of Arizona in Week 2 and then last week it pulled away for the 35-23 home victory over the Chargers. QB Jared Goff had 354 yards and three TD’s last week. The pick: Minnesota can’t sit back and hope things work out. The Vikes’ offense has to produce tonight, or they’re going to get left behind by the high-powered Rams. LA’s greatest strength early it seems is that it can play any style of game. Wide open, defensive battle, either way it’s adapted its style early and done well in every scenario. I’m anticipating a more wide open affair today. Play the “over.” |
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09-27-18 | Pirates v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Trevor Williams, while the home side goes with Jon Lester. The pitchers: Williams is so far 14-9 with a 3.04 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings against the hard-hitting Brewers and he’s now given up two or fewer runs in 11 of his last 12 trips to the hill. Note as well that he’s 6-3 with a 3.18 ERA on the road. Lester is so far 17-6 with a 3.44 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Reds on Saturday and he’ll now look to close out the season on a high note. Note that he’s 8-4 with a 2.92 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League night home games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-27-18 | North Carolina +18 v. Miami-FL | Top | 10-47 | Loss | -105 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The UNC Tar Heels hit the road to take on the No. 16 Miami Hurricanes and while I’m not predicting an outright upset, I do think the visitors are going to keep this one competitive late. Note that this is a revenge game for the Tar Heels after the Hurricanes took the 24-19 victory in Chapel Hill last October. The teams: UNC enters off a 38-35 win over Pitt in its conference opener at home on Saturday. The Tar Heels are averaging 24.7 points and allowing 33.3. QB Nathan Elliot has 669 yards, three TD’s and four INT’s. Miami comes in off a 31-17 win over Florida International. FIU scored its 17 points in garbage time in the fourth quarter, but regardless, the Hurricanes clearly took the foot off the gas in that one and that’s exactly what I’m expecting here as well. Miami is averaging 43.5 PPG and it’s allowing just 18.5. QB Malik Rosier as 611 yards, five TD’s and two INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UNC is 4-2 ATS in its last six off a win against a conference rival and 7-4 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Miami is just 7-8 ATS inits last 15 at home and just 8-9 ATS in its last 17 against the conference. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points.
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09-27-18 | Braves v. Mets +1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
INCORRECTLY ENTERED PLAY! |
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09-26-18 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks UNDER 7.5 | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this one. the visitors go with Ross Stripling on the hill, while the home side goes with Zack Greinke. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-5 with a 2.84 ERA. He comes in off a loss against the Cards on Sunday, but overall the right-hander has been great this year. Note that he has a sharp 1.14 WHIP over 117 innings and he’s been great in all “night” games with a 2.44 ERA. Greinke is so far 14-11 with a 3.21 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this season, but he’s been fantastic at home, coming in with a sharp 6-4, 2.42 ERA in friendly confines. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night road games when the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-26-18 | Tigers v. Twins -135 | Top | 4-11 | Win | 100 | 12 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither of these starters has looked great this season. Each came in with a ton of promise, but each has struggled with consistency. That said, I absolutely feel that Jake Odorizzi and the home side are well worth the price of admission in this match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd. The pitchers: Boyd is so far 9-12 with a 4.16 ERA. Boyd has admittedly been decent of late, but overall the southpaw has been consistently inconsistent (especially on the road where he’s just 3-9 with a 5.72 ERA). Odorizzi is so far 7-10 with a 4.35 ERA. He comes in off a strong outing against the Yanks on Wednesday and he has to be feeling confident here, sporting a respectable 1.33 WHP and 154:63 K/BB over 153.2 innings of work. The pick: Odorizzi is 5-4 with a 4.10 ERA at home and take it for what you will as well, but the Twins are 8-3 in their last 11 American League night home games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Lay the price, play on the Twins. |
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09-26-18 | Marlins v. Nationals OVER 9 | Top | 3-9 | Win | 102 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Wei-Yin Chen has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but he’s been terrible on the road. The Nationals made an over night pitching change, shelving Roark and going with Kyle McGowin. I think runs will be plentiful here. The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-11 with a 4.66 ERA. He’s 5-3 with a 1.62 ERA at home and 1-8 with a 9.29 ERA on the road. McGowin is so far 0-0 with a 6.75 ERA. He was amazing at the Triple-A level, but he was blown up in his first appearance in the big leagues. He draws a more favorable opponent tonight, but clearly the book is still out on the rookie at this point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Miami has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the game is set between -150 and +150. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-25-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -128 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -128 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound, and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. That said, I do definitely think that Mike Montgomery and the hard-hitting home side are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The visitors go with the erratic Chris Archer. The pitchers: Archer is so far 5-8 with a 4.49 ERA. He comes in off a decent start against the lowly Royals, but overall he’s been poor for his new club with a 5.19 ERA. Archer has been especially pedestrian on the road as well with a 4-6, 4.91 ERA. Montgomery is so far 5-5 with a 3.75 ERA. The southpaw looks to close out the season strong in front of the home town crowd, note that he owns a sharp 3.12 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Pirates are just 2-7 in their last nine National League road night games in which they’re an underdog in the +125 to +200 range. Lay the price and expect a rout.
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09-24-18 | Padres v. Giants OVER 7.5 | Top | 5-0 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Two starters who are likely happy to see the season coming to an end collide in this one. I think runs are going to be plentiful, as the visitors hand the ball to Bryan Mitchell, while the home side goes with Derek Holland. The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 1-4 with a 6.16 ERA. He fell to the Giants at home on Tuesday and he can’t be feeling too confident here either, as note that he’s just 1-3 with a 5.93 ERA in all “night” games this season. Holland is so far 7-8 with a 3.57 ERA. The ten year veteran has been serviceable this year, but note that he’s a poor 2-7 with a 4.78 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 13 National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Two suspect starters here. I think these normally lighter-hitting line-ups take advantage. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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