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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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09-23-18 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 3 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. I think runs are going to be at a premium in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Aaron Nola, while the home side goes with Anibal Sanchez. The pitchers: Nola is so far 16-5 with a 2.44 ERA. He’s been scuffling a bit (for his standards anyways) over the last month, but the right-hander has to be feeling confident here as note that he’s 7-3 with a 2.27 ERA on the road. Sanchez is so far 6-6 with a 3.01 ERA. His career ERA is 4.02 and his career WHIP is 1.31, so this year’s 3.01 and 1.12 are massive improvements. Note as well that he owns a tiny 1.96 ERA in all “day” games this year. The pick: And take it for what you will, but Philadelphia has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League road day games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-23-18 | Colts +7 v. Eagles | Top | 16-20 | Win | 100 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis comes in off a 21-9 road win over Washington and I think it’ll be able to keep this one competitive as well against an Eagles team which comes in off a 27-21 loss to Tampa Bay. The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 179 passing yards, two TD’s and two INT’s last week. TY Hilton had seven catches for 83 yards. So far the Colts are averaging 22 PPG, while allowing 21.5. Last week the defense was especially sharp in not allowing a TD. The Eagles are averaging 19.5 PPG and they’re also allowing 19.5. QB Carson Wentz makes his debut (finally), but clearly the pivot is going to have to go through some “growing pains” before obtaining his previous form. Philadelphia looked horrible against the pass last week, giving up 402 yards to Ryan Fitzpatrick. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indianapolis is 6-3 ATS in its last nine non-conference games, while Philadelphia is just 2-3 ATS in its last five as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range. I think Luck keeps this one close. Grab the points.
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09-23-18 | Bengals v. Panthers UNDER 44 | Top | 21-31 | Loss | -115 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in off high-scoring affairs last week, but I think points will be at more of a premium in this one. Cincinnati beat Baltimore 34-23, while Carolina fell 31-24 in Atlanta. The teams: So far the Bengals are averaging 34 PPG and allowing 23. The rush defense has been fantastic, ranked fourth overall, so that definitely negates a major strength/focus of the Panthers today. Carolina is averaging 20 PPG and allowing 19.5. The Panthers gave up 442 yards last week, so they’ll be out to atone today in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” the number in its last four as a road dog of three point or less, while Carolina has seen the total go “under” in five of its last seven as a favorite. The conditions are definitely right for a lower-scoring “under.”
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09-23-18 | Saints v. Falcons UNDER 53 | Top | 43-37 | Loss | -109 | 118 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: What’s the first thing that comes into your head when you think about these two teams? For me it’s high-flying offenses and very little defensive play. While that is in fact true most weeks, I think these two division rivals will play to more of a lower-scoring affair in Week 3. The teams: The Saints had less than 300 yards offense in the win over the Browns. The offense had 475 yards in a Week 1 loss to the Bucs. Overall though New Orleans can’t be happy with where it sits on either side of the ball. Last year the Saints made big strides because of improved defensive play and the team will have to continue that trend this season if it hopes to once again make a serious playoff run. After coming up short on three occasions in the red zone in a Week 1 loss to the Eagles, the Falcons went four-for-four last week. Overall Atlanta can’t be feeling too bad at this point at where it sits, especially from a defensive stand-point. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New Orleans has seen the total go “under” the number in three of its last four as a road dog of three points or less, while Atlanta has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 12 off a divisional contest (and in six of its last nine off a win against a division rival.) This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-23-18 | Broncos +5.5 v. Ravens | Top | 14-27 | Loss | -110 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Baltimore comes in deflated off a road loss in Cincinnati, while the Broncos come in “under the radar” at 2-0. Denver plays its first road game of the season and I think the defensive minded Broncos will keep this one interesting. The teams: Broncos’ RB Phillip Lindsay has posted back-to-back 100 yards games, becoming the first undrafted player in league history to do so. He had a 53 yard run in his team’s 20-19 victory over the Raiders last week. Look for QB Case Keenum to take advantage of a Ravens’ secondary which will be without CB Jimmy Smith (suspension.) Baltimore is allowing almost 170 yards through the air. The Broncos held Oakland to just 92 rushing yards, but gave up 288 passing yards and a TD through the air. Baltimore gave up four sacks in the loss to the Bengals last week. The Ravens are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry on offense, which is third-worst in the NFL. Joe Flacco has been serviceable, but the QB match-up today is definitely a “wash” in my opinion. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore is 0-3 ATS in its last three as a home favorite in the 3.5 to 7 points range. I think Denver’s defense is a difference maker in this one. Grab the points and expect a “nail biter.”
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09-23-18 | Giants v. Texans -6 | Top | 27-22 | Loss | -102 | 118 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: This is going to be a war. New York is 0-2 and Houston is 0-2. The Giants fell 20-13 to the Cowboys last week, while the Texans lost 20-17 to Tennessee. The teams: Giants’ QB Eli Manning had 279 passing yards, but he was also sacked six times. So far Manning has 503 passing yards with one TD and one INT. RB Saquon Barkley was shut down, finishing with just 28 yards on 11 carries last week. Overall the Giants are averaging just 14 PPG. The defense has been a bright spot, allowing 20 PPG so far. Texans’ QB DeShaun Watson has looked a lot better than his counterpart in the early going, last week he had 310 passing yards with two TD’s and an INT. Overall he has 486 passing yards and a 3/2 TD:INT. Lamar Miller was a bright spot last week as well with 68 yards on 14 carries. The Texans only scored 17 points last week, but the unit did produce 437 total yards. The pick: Houston’s offensive yardage production so far hasn’t led to a lot of points, but I expect that trend to start normalizing itself here. The Giants have been decent defensively, but I think the unit takes a step back this week in this difficult road venue. Look for Watson to finally have his break out game and lay the points.
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09-22-18 | Michigan State v. Indiana +5 | Top | 35-21 | Loss | -105 | 94 h 44 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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09-22-18 | NC State -5 v. Marshall | Top | 37-20 | Win | 100 | 93 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: NC State comes in fresh here as its Week 3 matchup against No. 12 ranked WVU was postponed due to the Hurricane. So far the Wolfpack are 2-0 with victories over Georgia State and James Madison. Marshall’s Week 3 contest was also cancelled with South Carolina. It’s also 2-0 with wins over Miami and Eastern Kentucky. The teams: NC State QB Finley has over 6,500 yards and 35 TD’s the past two seasons and he has over 300 yards passing in each of the first two games this year. The offense gets a big boost this week as well with the addition of former Trojan TE Cary Angeline, who was a four-star recruit and who is expected to play a big part in the offense right away. Marshall QB Isaiah Green has 550 yards over his first two games. Tyre Brady caught 11 passes for 248 yards in a losing cause to NC State last year and I think he’s going to come up short this season as well. The pick: As note that the Herd are just 3-10 in their last 13 against teams from Power Five conferences. Take it for what you will as well, but Marshall is 0-4 ATS in its last four at home, while NC State is 6-2-1 ATS in its last nine on the road. Lay the points.
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09-22-18 | Florida International +27 v. Miami-FL | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 90 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Outright upset? Of course not. But I think Miami Florida comes in distracted enough to let lowly FIU sneak in through the back door down the stretch. The teams: FIU destroyed UMass 63-24 last weekend, as QB James Morgan had 207 yards and two TD’s. Shawndarrius Phillips had 117 rushing yards. Overall Morgan has six TD’s and three INT’s. Clearly this is a huge step up in competition, but after two straight wins, the Panthers won’t just be rolling over here today. Miami Florida comes in off a big win too, smashing Toledo 49-24. QB Malik Rosier was 13 of 23 for 205 yards and two TD’s, while also adding 80 yards and three more scores on the ground. Note that the defense took a major hit with an injury to Jaquan Johnson. He he went out Toledo gained huge chunks through the air. The pick: Take it for what you will, but FIU is 12-8 ATS in its last 20 as an underdog, while Miami Florida is just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 against teams with winning records. I think a confident and “under the radar” FIU team can keep this one competitive against an over-confident and complacent Hurricanes home side. Grab the points. |
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09-22-18 | Clemson v. Georgia Tech +17 | Top | 49-21 | Loss | -110 | 90 h 39 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important early season ACC match-up between Clemson and Georgia Tech. Clemson enters off a 38-7 victory at home over Georgia Southern, while Georgia Tech is off a tough 24-19 road loss to Pittsburgh. Note that when these teams played last year it was Clemson that won 24-10 at home. The teams: Clemson comes in complacent here, now ranked No. 2 in the country. So far the Tigers are averaging 38 PPG and allowing 13.3. Clemson has a QB battle going on still between Trevor Lawrence and Kelly Bryant. Georgia Tech comes in hungry after opening the season 1-2. After a win over Alcorn State, the Yellow Jackets have dropped two straight on the road to South Florida and Pittsburgh. Overall the team is ranked 21st in the nation in total offense (510 YPG) and 64th in scoring with 32.7. The defense has also been sharp in allowing only 24.3 PPG. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Clemson is just 4-5 ATS in its last nine as a road favorite, while Georgia Tech is 6-4 ATS in its last ten as an underdog and 5-3 ATS off a loss against a conference rival. The conditions are right for a much tighter than expected affair in my opinion. Grab the points. |
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09-22-18 | Phillies v. Braves UNDER 8.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion runs are going to be at a premium this afternoon. The visitors go with Jake Arrieta, while the home side hands the ball to Mike Foltynewicz. The pitchers: Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.77 ERA. He has been far from perfect this year, but I think the veteran has likely been just as good as Philadelphia could have possibly asked for to this point. Note that he owns a very respectable 3.70 ERA on the road. Foltynewicz is so far 11-10 with a 2.90 ERA. After giving up one run over a complete game victory over the Giants, he wasn’t quite as sharp in his latest outing against the Cards. Regardless the southpaw has also exceeded expectations to this point (note that Foltynewicz is 3-2 with a 2.28 ERA in all “day” games.) The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Atlanta has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine National League day home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-22-18 | Minnesota +3 v. Maryland | Top | 13-42 | Loss | -115 | 86 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the Big 10 Conference opener for both sides and I’m expecting a battle until the end. The Golden Gophers are 3-0 after beating New Mexico State, Fresno State and Miami Ohio, while Maryland is now 2-1 after getting upset at home by Temple last week. Note that this is a big time revenge game for the Golden Gophers as well after Maryland beat Minnesota on the road 31-24 last season. The teams: Last year the Gophers finished 30th in overall defense and 11th against the pass in allowing only 174.5 YPG through the air. The unit lost a bunch of faces, but it’s still allowing just 184.3 YPG through the air this season. RB Bryce Williams had 141 yards on 33 carries last week. QB Zack Annexstad suffered an ankle injury, but he still finished with 142 yards and two TD’s before leaving. He’s likely going to start here, but if he doesn’t, it’ll be Tanner Morgan, who was 1 of 5 with an INT last week. But with a week of preparation, Morgan should look a lot better here if he does have to play. Besides, Minnesota will be focusing on its ground game and defensive play to win this game anyways. The Terps went just 1 of 12 on third downs last week against a mediocre Owls defense and now they face one of the toughest units in the country. Maryland passed for just 63 yards and totalled 195 last Saturday. Remember, Temple had already posted losses against Buffalo and FCS Villanova as well. QB Kasim Hill was 7 of 17 for 96 yards and a pick. The pick: Maryland’s rattled and ripe for the picking. Minnesota comes in on top form and in a revenge situation after last year’s setback. The outright’s possible, but grab the points.
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09-22-18 | Huddersfield Town v. Leicester -151 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Foxes have struggled with consistency once again this year, but I think they’ll have more than enough to score the victory in regulation at home. The teams: Leicester City has lost its last two against Liverpool and Bournemouth and it also lost its opening weekend match against Man-U, but it does have victories over Wolves and Southampton. Huddersfield Town has yet to win a game, picking up just two points out of a possible 15 so far in EPL action. The pick: The Terriers have struggled with offensive consistency (scored just once in their last four matches), which doesn’t bode well as note that the Foxes have kept clean sheets in two of their three home games. Look for Leicester City to get the job done. |
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09-21-18 | Penn State v. Illinois +28.5 | Top | 63-24 | Loss | -115 | 71 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Penn State comes to Memorial Stadium in Champaign, Illinois off a 63-10 victory over Kent State last weekend. The Illini enter off a hard-fought 25-19 loss to USF. The teams: Penn State QB Trace McSorley had 229 passing yards and two TD’s in last week’s blowout win. So far he has 604 passing yards and a 5/1 TD/INT. Miles Sanders would post 86 rushing yards on 14 carries. The defense looked sharp as well in limiting the Flashes to just 221 total yards. The Fighting Illini are averaging 28 PPG, while they’re allowing just 21. MJ Rivers II had 168 passing yards in last week’s loss. But No. 1 QB AJ Bush is expected back under center for this one, which is a huge boost for the home side’s confidence. Ricky Smalling was an offensive standout last week as well with 40 receiving yards. The pick: Illinois has already played tough at home, as evidenced by its early 2-1 ATS record. Penn State is just 3-4 ATS in its last seven as a favorite in the 21.5 to 31 points range, including 0-1 ATS this season. I’m banking on these strong trends continuing. Grab the points.
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09-21-18 | Angels v. Astros UNDER 8 | Top | 3-11 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Andrew Heaney, while the home side goes with Gerritt Cole. The pitchers: Heaney is so far 9-9 with a 3.97 ERA. He most recently gave up two earned runs while striking out four over five innings in a no-decision to Seattle on Saturday. Over his last 12 innings of work he’s allowed just two earned runs. Cole is so far 14-5 with a 2.88 ERA. He comes in off back-to-back strong outings and he’ll now be looking to close the regular season strong and improve upon his already impressive 7-2, 2.72 ERA record in front of the home town crowd. The pick: Take it for what you will, but note that the Astros have seen the total go “under” the number in ten of their last 14 night American League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -150 to -250 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-21-18 | Red Sox v. Indians OVER 8 | Top | 7-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: Clearly these are two very capable starters. This total is set low for a reason, but in my estimation, it’s a little too low. Admittedly these are two of the very best pitchers going head-to-head in this one, but this is also a couple of the hardest-hitting line-ups in the World as well. I look for this one to sneak “over” once it’s all said and done. The pitchers: Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.92 ERA. He went three shutout innings in a no-decision to the Mets on Sunday. Sale has looked good early in his limited time and he’ll be worked back into his full load slowly. However, the fact that he could be on a short leash again here definitely is a major factor working in our favor on this play. Bauer is so far 12-6 with a 2.22 ERA. Bauer’s been out since mid-August with a lower-leg fracture. The Indians have already clinched a playoff spot, so the team has little to play for over the final two weeks. Bauer will have a couple of “tune-ups” to get back into form before the post-season. The pick: Neither of these work horse starters is expected to see much time tonight and because of that, I’m going to recommend a play on the “over.” |
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09-21-18 | Brewers v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 8-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: These veteran starters have looked brilliant at times this season and very poor in others. I think they’re going to “get the hook early” here though and because of that I expect this total to sneak “over” before it’s all said and done. The visitors hand the ball to Jhoulys Chacin, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova. The pitchers: Chacin is so far 14-8 with a 3.54 ERA. He’s been solid across the board, although he does sport a pedestrian 4.01 ERA in all “night” games. Nova is so far 9-9 with a 4.07 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits over six innings in a win over these very Brewers on Saturday. Nova’s been better over the last month, but note that he’s still a terrible 3-7 with a 5.12 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: These veterans have admittedly been decent of late, but I’ll caution by pointing that out that the Pirates have in fact seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine National League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is a little low, play the “over.”
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09-21-18 | Florida Atlantic v. Central Florida -13.5 | Top | 36-56 | Win | 100 | 69 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: UCF comes in refreshed because its game last weekend was cancelled because of Hurricane Florence. Central Florida is already 2-0 with victories over UConn and South Carolina State. FAU lost to Oklahoma, before then bouncing back with wins over Air Force and Bethune-Cookman. The teams: The Owls do indeed come in off the 49-28 win over Bethune-Cookman, but they’ve had just five days off. Clearly the visitors are at a major disadvantage from a fitness and mental stand-point this week already. Devin Singletary was a standout in the latest victory with a school-record five rushing TD’s. The Knights have 612 yards on the ground through two games and 606 through the air. Seven different players have gained at least 68 yards, led by Adrian Killins Jr., who has 127 yards and three TD’s. QB McKenzie Milton is so far 45 of 71 for 589 yards, six TD’s and three INT’s. The pick: Take it for what you will, but FAU is just 3-9 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog, while UCF is 12-7 ATS in its last 19 as a favorite. I think the “fresher” home side puts the foot on the gas from start to finish. Lay the points and expect a blowout. |
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09-20-18 | Jets v. Browns OVER 39 | Top | 17-21 | Loss | -114 | 53 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: New York is 1-1, looking great in Week 1, but stumbling in Week 2. Cleveland has been very competitive in both of its losses to open the season. These are two young and hungry teams looking for a big win on a short week and in my opinion, this one has “shootout” written all over it. The teams: New York has lost five of its last six on the road. QB Sam Darnold so far has 532 yards, three TD’s and three INT’s. The Jets are averaging 105.5 yards on the ground per game. The defense has been a bright spot early in allowing just 18.5 points, but I think that the unit comes in “gassed” on the short week. Cleveland is desperate. The Browns haven’t won a game since Christmas Eve 2016. QB Tyrod Taylor has 443 yards, two TD’s and two INT’s so far. The ground game has been a strength, averaging 135 YPG, with Carlos Hyde leading the charge with 105 yards and two TD’s. Cleveland has been decent defensively as well, allowing 21 PPG. The pick: If not for some “back luck,” the Browns could actually be 2-0 to start the season. I think the home side opens up the playbook today as it lays everything on the line to try and secure the victory on the National stage. Darnold and company won’t be going down without a fight though. Play the “over.” |
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09-20-18 | Tulsa v. Temple UNDER 56 | Top | 17-31 | Win | 100 | 46 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: Tulsa comes in off a 29-20 loss at home to Arkansas State, while Temple comes in off an upset 35-14 road victory over Maryland. When these teams faced off last November 25th, it was Temple that ran away with the high-scoring 43-22 victory. While last year’s total flew well above the number, I think the 2018 match-up will produce a much lower-scoring combined final score. The teams: Tulsa is averaging 26.3 PPG and it’s allowing 28. QB Luke Skipper has 521 yards, four TD’s and three INT’s to this point. He also has 109 rushing yards and another major score on the ground. Shamari Brooks has 310 rushing yards and four TD’s. Last week the Golden Hurricane was out gained 409-339. The Owls opened the season 0-2, before last week’s surprise victory over the Terps. Temple had a ridiculous 429-195 yardage edge in the end. Overall the Owls average 27 PPG and allow just 23. QB Frank Nutile has 401 yards passing, four TD’s and four INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead has 256 yards on 54 carries. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Tulsa has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last six after two or more consecutive SU losses, while temple has seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of its last 17 as the favorite. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-20-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees UNDER 8.5 | Top | 11-6 | Loss | -119 | 8 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In my opinion, runs will be at a premium. The visitors hand the ball to Eduardo Rodriguez, while the home side goes with Masahiro Tanaka. The pitchers: Rodriguez is so far 12-4 with a 3.53 ERA. He hasn’t been perfect this year, but overall the right-hander is enjoying the best overall campaign of his career. Rodriguez has to be feeling confident in this spot as well as note that he’s 6-1 with a 3.20 ERA on the road this season. Tanaka is so far 12-5 with a 3.47 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back strong outings. Tanka is 7-0 on the road and only 5-5 at home, but he owns a 3.56 ERA in friendly confines and there’s no reason not to think the Asian hurler won’t bring his “A” game here as well. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 13 American League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-19-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks OVER 8 | Top | 0-9 | Win | 100 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs’ Cole Hamels has for the most part looked fantastic since coming over in a trade from the Rangers. Not perfect though. The Diamondbacks’ Robbie Ray has endured up and down season as well. These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and very pedestrian in others. I think this one will sneak “over” the number in the end. The pitchers: Hamels is so far 9-9 with a 3.67 ERA. He’s been better on the road this year than in home situations, but there’s no question he faces a difficult opponent in a difficult venue tonight (note that the Cubs have seen the total go “over” in ten of their last 17 National League night road games when the line in the contest is set between +150 and -150.) Ray is so far 5-2 with a 4.14 ERA. He’s been much better in the second half of the season after a shaky first, but note that he still owns a poor 5.57 ERA at home this season. The pick: I believe these veteran starters are running out of gas as the season comes down the stretch and I think each will “get the hook early” in this one. As a result, look for this total to sneak OVER once it’s all said and done.
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09-19-18 | Cardinals -108 v. Braves | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -108 | 13 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound, but this isn’t one of those. I think the Cards have the distinct advantage on the hill tonight. The visitors go with Joe Flaherty, while the home side sends Touki Toussaint to the bump. The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 8-7 with a 2.86 ERA. He comes in off a hard-luck loss against the Dodgers on Friday, giving up one earned run off four hits while striking out eight over six innings. Flaherty has not given up more than three earned runs in an outing since late July. Note that he’s 4-1 with a 2.14 ERA in all “day” games as well. Toussaint is 1-1 with a 4.67 ERA. He was moved to the bullpen last week after three straight lacklustre starts to open his career, but he’s back in the rotation out of necessity. Note that Toussaint has as many walks as he does K’s so far this season. The pick: I love Flaherty in this spot. He was the victim of poor run support in his last outing, but that’s not going to be a problem here in my estimation facing the shaky Toussaint. Lay the price, play on St. Louis. |
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09-18-18 | White Sox v. Indians UNDER 8 | Top | 3-5 | Push | 0 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Carlos Rodon, while the home side goes with ace Corey Kluber. The pitchers: Rodon is so far 6-5 with a 3.10 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to Kansas City on Wednesday. Rodon hasn’t been perfect this year, but his 1.11 WHIP is elite and note that he has a sharp 3.08 ERA in all “night” games as well. Kluber is so far 18-7 with a 2.91 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over 1.2 innings in a no-decision to Tampa Bay on Monday. It was his worst start of the year, but I don’t think there’s any need to over-react. Clearly the sub-par effort has to be considered an “outlier” at his point. The pick: Note that Kluber is 10-3 with a 2.05 ERA at home this season. And take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last nine American League night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-18-18 | Royals v. Pirates -195 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mismatches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Eric Skoglund, while the home side sends Jameson Taillon to the hill. I think Taillon is well worth the price in this spot. The pitchers: Skoglund is so far 1-5 with a 6.19 ERA. He’s been more effective of late, but he’s been terrible on the road all year, coming in with an 0-2, 7.15 ERA to this point. Taillon is so far 13-9 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits while striking out four over seven innings in a victory over St. louis on Wednesday. It was his fourth straight victory. The pick: Note that over his last four trips to the hill Taillon has posted a tiny 2.16 ERA and elite 25:3 K/BB in that span. The massive talent-gap on the mound today makes this a price that I have no issues at all in laying. Play on Pittsburgh. |
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09-18-18 | Red Sox v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this early afternoon Tuesday contest is one of them. I think runs are going to be plentiful this afternoon. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with JA Happ. The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.22 ERA. He returns to the starting rotation for the remainder of the season. He’s been more “miss” than “hit” for the Red Sox this year though, a big reason why he was quickly shifted to the bullpen originally. Note that he’s been poor on the road with a 2-6, 5.68 ERA. Happ is so far 16-6 with a 3.75 ERA. Happ’s been as solid as New York could have possibly asked for since coming over from the Jays, but I will point out that he still does own a very pedestrian 4.90 ERA in all home instances this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “over” the number in eight of its last 12 American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-17-18 | Cubs v. Diamondbacks -125 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. However, I absolutely feel that Patrick Corbin and the Diamondbacks are worth the price in this one at home. The visitors go with Kyle Hendricks. The pitchers: Hendricks is so far 11-11 with a 3.71 ERA. After a shaky first half, Hendricks has looked a lot better in the second. That said, note that he still owns a very pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road. Corbin is so far 11-5 with a 3.05 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off ten hits while striking out seven over 6.1 innings in a loss to Colorado on Wednesday. The pick: Corbin has now struck out at least seven batters in ten straight outings while posting an elite 81/9 K:BB in that span. The southpaw has been at his best at home as well by going 7-3 with a 3.04 ERA. I’m banking on Corbin continuing his strong play at home, while I expect Hendricks’ road mediocrity to not be enough to get the job done this time. Lay the price. |
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09-17-18 | Seahawks v. Bears -3 | Top | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 34 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 0-1 and only one will leave this contest with a victory. I think that home field will prove to be the difference for Chicago. The teams: Seattle threw everything it had on the line in Week 1, but it still came up short in a 27-24 setback in Denver. The offense lost star WR Doug Baldwin to injury and his return in unknown at this point. RB Chris Carson had 51 yards, but no receiver caught more than four passes. QB Russell Wilson had 298 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s, but he was just 19 of 33 overall. The Bears lost 24-23 in Green Bay. The defense looked great until the final moments when it gave up a 75 yard TD strike to Randall Cobb. QB Mitch Trubisky had 171 passing yards and 32 yards and a TD on the ground. RB Jordan Howard at 85 yards on 15 carries. Khalil Mack put on a show defensively and I think he’s going to have a big night here as well against the Seahawks’ suspect O-line. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Chicago is 9-3-1 ATS in its last 13 at home (also 6-2 ATS in its last eight MNF contests), while Seattle is interestingly 0-4 ATS in its last four Week 2 contests. The Hawks were a terrible 2 for 12 on third down against the Broncos and now they face a similar swarming defensive unit. I like Trubisky to find a way to get the job done at home. Lay the points. |
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09-17-18 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 7.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the red hot Zack Wheeler, while the home side goes with veteran Jake Arrieta. The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 11-7 with a 3.23 ERA. He most recently went eight shutout against the Marlins on Wednesday, striking out seven and issuing zero walks. To go along with his solid ERA he also sports an elite 1.12 WHIP along with a strong 175 strikeouts over 167.1 innings. Arrieta is so far 10-9 with a 3.66 ERA. For the most part the veteran has been as solid as the Phillies could have possibly hoped for this season and Arrieta surely feels confident in this spot as he comes in with a very respectable 4-3, 3.10 ERA at home this year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Mets have seen the total go “under” the number in 11 of their last 17 National League road games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-16-18 | Giants +3 v. Cowboys | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams looked terrible last week. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” one which is going to be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. In a scenario like that, I’m going to grab the points every time. The teams: New York lost 20-15 at home to Jacksonville. RB Saquon Barkley was a stand out with 106 yards and a TD. Eli Manning had 223 yards, no TD’s and an INT. The veteran should make significant progression as the season wears on though. The defense was sharp overall, allowing just 305 yards. Dallas looked horrible offensively in Week 1 and it all falls onto QB Dak Prescott’s shoulders. He was 19 of 29 for 17 yards. He also lost a fumble. He was also sacked six times. The beleaguered Cowboys’ QB is getting progressively worse with each outing as he’s now thrown for 200 yards or less in seven of his past nine games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Dallas is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven at home, while New York is interestingly 4-1 ATS in its last five Week 2 contests. The Jags have one of the best defensive units in the league, but New York faces a much more manageable opponent this week. The outright isn’t out of the question, but I’m going to grab the points. |
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09-16-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals +1.5 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the home side on the “run line” is the correct call in this Sunday night match-up. The visitors hand the ball to Ross Stripling, while the Cards go with Adam Wainwright. The pitchers: Stripling is so far 8-3 with a 2.61 ERA. Stripling’s back in the rotation out of necessity and he’s done exceptionally well whenever he’s been given the chance this season. Stripling’s been great, I simply feel that he and his team are over-priced in this spot against the hungry home side. Wainwright is so far 1-3 with a 4.70 ERA. He returned from the DL on Monday and gave up four runs while striking out three in a fortunate win over the Pirates. Clearly Wainwright has seen better days, but the veteran will be given every opportunity by the club during its playoff push. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine night National League home games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. Grab the Cards on the “run line.” |
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09-16-18 | Lions +7 v. 49ers | Top | 27-30 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: I like the Lions to bounce back on the road here after a tough setback in Week 1. The 49ers also lost in Week 1 and I think they’re ripe for the picking. The teams: Detroit was humbled 48-17 last week and new head coach Pat Patricia is already on the hot seat. The Lions would give up 31 third-quarter points: “It came to a point there in the third quarter where we just didn’t have control anymore in all three phases,” Patricia assessed. “We just have to do a better job. Obviously, we have to coach this a lot better than what we did tonight and we have to go out and execute a lot better on the field. We have to do a better job altogether. It starts with me.” QB Matt Stafford had 286 yards, while the defense allowed 169 rushing yards. San Francisco didn’t look too much better in its 24-16 loss at Minnesota. QB Jimmy Garoppolo looked poor, going 15 of 33 for 261 yards, one TD and three INT’s. Is there any QB more over-rated than this guy? The 49ers finished with just 13 points on four trips inside the Red Zone. The team lost the services of WR Marquise Goodwin to injury also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but San Francisco is just 5-11 ATS in its last 16 at home and only 1-4 ATS in its last five as a favorite. I expect a hard-fought battle, one which will likely be decided by whichever of these hungry sides has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points. |
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09-16-18 | Colts v. Redskins UNDER 48.5 | Top | 21-9 | Win | 100 | 27 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: Indianapolis fell 34-23 to the Bengals at home in its opener, while Washington took care of business in Arizona 24-6. The Colts hit the road for the first time in a hostile environment this season and I think they’ll have an even more difficult time moving the ball in Week 2. Indianapolis played better defensively than what last week’s score would indicate and I think the unit will have opportunities today as well. This number is high. The teams: Colts’ QB Andrew Luck had 319 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT last week. No. 1 RB Marlon Mack was out and he’s questionable for this one as well. WR TY Hilton had just five catches for 46 yards. As mentioned off the top, the defense was decent despite the final score, as one of the TD’s conceded was a defensive one. Washington QB Alex Smith had 255 passing yards and two TD passes last week. The run game stole the show offensively though with 182 combined, led by Adrian Peterson with 96. The defense was outstanding, holding the Cardinals to only 213 yards and 1 of 8 on third down attempts. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Indy has seen the total go “under” the number in four of its last five as an underdog in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Washington has seen the total go “under” in five of its last six as a favorite in the same points range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-16-18 | Chargers v. Bills OVER 42.5 | Top | 31-20 | Win | 100 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are hungry here after Week 1 setbacks. Both clubs looked horrible defensively last weekend and I think that’ll be the case here again as well. This number is a little low. The teams: The Bills lost 47-3 last week. Josh Allen has been named the starting QB in Week 2 after Nathan Peterman imploded. LeSean McCoy only had 22 yards last week, after finishing with over 1,100 last year. Clearly the only way the Buffalo offense can go is up. The defense gave up 369 yards, including allowing Baltimore to go 6 for 6 in the Red Zone. LA QB Philip Rivers will be looking to exploit the Bills’ weak pass defense. The Chargers were decent defensively last year, but the unit struggled in Week 1 and I think it’ll have its hands full here against a Buffalo offense that’s out to atone itself. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but LA has seen the total go “over” in four of its last six as a favorite in the 3.5 to 9.5 points range, while Buffalo has seen the total go “over” in 12 of its last 15 at home. With each side pushing the pace and hungry for a win, I look for this total to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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09-16-18 | Panthers +7 v. Falcons | Top | 24-31 | Push | 0 | 27 h 60 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons have been over-rated for quite some time in my estimation. Atlanta had several chances to deliver the knock out blow to Eagles in Week 1, but the offense stalled in the Red Zone on three different occasions, with the visitors coming up completely empty. With that loss still on their minds, I think the Falcons are ripe for the picking here. The Panthers will be happy to oblige as they look to move to 2-0 and gain an early critical victory over a divisional foe. The teams: Carolina prevailed 16-8 against Dallas last week, holding the Cowboys to 0 for 5 on third down in the first half. Cam Newton had his hands full for the most of the game, but he made some big plays when he needed too. And now he faces a much more suspect defensive unit in the Falcons. Atlanta QB Matt Ryan had 251 yards, no TD’s and an INT in last week’s 18-12 loss at Philadelphia. The defense looked decent, but the book is still out on the Eagles offense at this point, so it’s hard to read too much into what the Falcons’ unit did in Week 1. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Carolina is 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Atlanta is just 12-13 ATS in its last 25 as a favorite. Grab the points, play on Carolina. |
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09-16-18 | Mets v. Red Sox UNDER 7.5 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to ace Jacob deGrom, while the home side goes with ace Chris Sale. The pitchers: deGrom is so far 8-9 with a 1.71 ERA. The Mets right-hander has been nearly perfect this season and he’s been especially tough on the road where he’s a “lights out” 5-3 with a 1.66 ERA. Sale is so far 12-4 with a 1.96 ERA. He returned on Tuesday to throw a scoreless frame against Toronto, giving up one hit and striking out two. Sale’s been out since August 12th, but he’s re-habed successfully, made a successful first appearance and now he’s been given the green light to make his first start. The pick: Note that Sale is 4-2 with a 1.92 ERA at home and 5-1 with a 1.55 ERA in all “day” games. Take it for what you will as well, but Boston has seen the total go “under” the number in seven of its last ten American League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-15-18 | Missouri v. Purdue +6.5 | Top | 40-37 | Win | 100 | 27 h 18 m | Show |
The teams: Missouri is so far averaging 396 yards per game in the early going, but it faces a stiff test today. The offense has put up 45.5 PPG, while the defense has allowed only 13.5. QB Drew Lock had 687 yards, eight TD’s and no INT’s. Purdue is ranked 89th in the country in passing offense with an average of 202.5 YPG. 24th in rushing offense though with 271.5 YPG. So far the combination of David Blough and Elijah Sindelar has come up short under center, but I think that changes this weekend. The offense is averaging just 23 PPG right now, but the defense is giving up only 25.5. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Missouri is just 4-6 ATS in its last ten on the road and only 2-5 ATS in its last seven games played on a grass field, while Purdue is 3-1 ATS in its last four as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. An outright upset? Possibly. Purdue is without question the “hungrier” team and I think this game will be decided by whichever side has its hands on the ball last. Grab the points, play on Purdue. |
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09-15-18 | San Jose State v. Oregon -41 | Top | 22-35 | Loss | -114 | 25 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: This is a classic “David vs. Goliath” match-up. However in this version, I believe Goliath will pound David through the field turf! Oregon comes in off back-to-back blowout victories and I fully expect that trend to carry over here for one more game. San Jose State on the other hand was shutout in a loss to Washington State last weekend. The teams: The Spartans put up 38 points in a loss to FCS UC Davis and then got killed by Washington State. Overall San Jose State has a total of 109 yards of offense over the first two games, with 100 of those coming through the air. So far Oregon has outscored its opponents by 31 points to open the year, as QB Justin Herbert has completed nearly 64 percent of his passes for 531 yards, nine TD’s and two INT’s. The ground attack has been solid as well and it looks poised for a massive game here against SJSU’s pathetic defense. The pick: The Spartans though have been particularly horrible against the pass, giving up an average of 433 yards per game through the air to this point. Take it for what you will as well, but Oregon is 35-17-1 ATS in its last 53 after allowing less than 20 points in its previous contest, while San Jose State is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine on the road. I don’t think SJSU will score a point. Lay the points. |
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09-15-18 | BYU +23 v. Wisconsin | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 24 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: Of course I’m not calling for an outright upset, but I do think that the stage is set for the Badgers to come in a tiny bit complacent here and I expect them to get caught “looking past” their lowly opponent. Wisconsin has won two in a row, most recently hammering New Mexico 45-14, while BYU comes in off a slim 21-18 home setback to Cal. Not surprisingly this is a “revenge” game after Wisconsin smashed BYU 40-6 on the road last year. The teams: BYU QB Tanner Mangum was 22 of 41 for 196 yards and two INT’s last week. So far he has a 2:2 TD/INT over two games. Over the first two games the offense is averaging 23 points. The defense though has looked pretty good, last week it gave up 386 total yards. Over the first two games the Cougars are allowing 22 points. Wisconsin QB Alex Hornibrook has a 3:1 TD/INT after two games, after throwing 25 TD passes last season. RB Jonathan Taylor had 253 rushing yards, but he’ll be up against a decent BYU rush defense this week. The defense was a strength of the team last year and it will be again this season as well. However note that the unit did lose eight starters from last year’s squad. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but BYU is still 7-5 ATS in its last 12 as an underdog and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 on the road, while Wisconsin is just 7-8 ATS in its last 15 at home and only 5-6 ATS in its last 11 non-conference contests. Grab the points, play on BYU. |
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09-15-18 | Miami-OH +13.5 v. Minnesota | Top | 3-26 | Loss | -105 | 23 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Minnesota comes in complacent here after two straight wins, most recently a 21-14 victory at home over Fresno State. Miami Ohio on the other hand is looking to atone after a 21-0 “dud” loss to Cincinnati. The teams: Redhawks’ QB Gus Ragland had 357 yards passing in Week 1’s loss to Marshall, but he was just 22 of 41 for 139 in last week’s loss. WR James Gardner has been a bright spot early with 142 yards over the first two games. Miami Ohio has looked decent defensively in the early going as well, last week limiting Cincinnati to just 233 total yards. Note that he pass defense was ranked 41st last season. Last week the Golden Gophers limited Fresno State to 299 total yards. QB Zack Annexstad had 175 yards in the win. But the victory came at a major cost, as note that star RB Rodney Smith was lost for the season with a knee injury. He is arguably the best player on the team and it’s a major blow to the team’s psyche. The pick: With a game at 2-0 Maryland next week, I think this does indeed set up as a classic “trap” game for the Golden Gophers. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. |
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09-15-18 | Temple +17 v. Maryland | Top | 35-14 | Win | 100 | 23 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the first time these teams have played since 2012, however they’re separated by just two hours by bus. Temple is 0-2 after losing to FCS Villanova and then Buffalo, while Maryland comes in complacent at 2-0 after upsetting Texas 34-29, before then smashing Bowling Green 45-14. I am not predicting an outright upset, but I do think the Terps “look past” their lowly opponent today. The teams: Last year the Owls had the top ranked pass defense in the AAC and the unit returned many starters, including Shaun Bradely (85 tackles) and Delvon Randall this season. So far the defense has been a disappointment, but the talent is certainly there to make a bounce back. Last week the offense posted 240 yards, with QB Frank Nutile posting three TD’s and two INT’s. RB Ryquell Armstead had 107 yards on 14 carries. Maryland was down 14-10 to the Green Falcons at half time last week, but it would outscore Bowling Green 35-0 in the second half. The Terps rushed for 444 yards. QB Kasim Hill was a disappointment though, going 8 of 16 for 121 yards and a TD. The Terps have looked solid defensively in the early going and vs. very weak competition, but don’t forget that they were last or near the bottom of the Big 10 in every defensive statistical category last year. The pick: Take it for what you will, but Temple is still 10-2 ATS in its last 12 on the road and 8-3 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Maryland is just 5-7 ATS in its last 12 as a favorite and only 5-7 ATS in its last 12 at home. Grab the points, play on the Owls. |
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09-15-18 | Hawaii v. Army UNDER 62.5 | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 20 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams hungry for a victory collide on Saturday afternoon and in my opinion, points are going to be at a premium. The teams: Hawaii is already 3-0 with wins over Rice, Navy and Colorado State. The Warriors have defied the odds to this point, most recently smashing Rice 43-29 as a 17 point favorite this past weekend. QB Cole McDonald was 22 of 33 for 319 yards and four TD’s last week, but I think Hawaii finally stumbles here against the Black Knights opportunistic defense and in this difficult road venue. Army is 1-1 after losing to Duke its opener, before then bouncing back with a victory over Liberty. The Black Knights rushed for 449 yards last week and they’ll be looking to duplicate that performance here. The last thing Army wants to do is get into a “track meet” with the high-flying Warriors, so expect the home side offense to try and maintain possession for as long as possible, whenever possible. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Hawaii has seen the total go “under” the number in five of its last eight as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while Army has seen the total go “under” in interestingly seven of its last ten games played in the month of September. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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09-15-18 | Liverpool v. Tottenham Hotspur UNDER 3 | Top | 2-1 | Push | 0 | 19 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: These are two of the top teams in the league. Liverpool has a perfect record after four games, while Tottenham is 3-1. The teams: The attacking trio of Salah, Mane and Firmino is a formidable one for Liverpool. This will be its stiffest test defensively though and I think the team is going to put a concerted effort on that end of the field today after some somewhat sloppy play on that side of the ball to open the campaign. The Hotspur won 3-0 at Old Trafford, before then being humbled 2-1 by Watford. Mauricio Pochettino’s men looked disinterested and inconsistency in form has plagued Tottenham for years now. The pick: These are two dangerous offensive teams, but with each looking for the other to make the first mistake, I’m anticipating a lower-scoring battle today. Play the “under.” |
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09-14-18 | Dodgers v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. I believe runs will be at a premium in this National League contest Friday night. The visitors hand the ball to Walker Buehler, while the home side goes with Joe Flaherty. The pitchers: Buehler is so far 6-5 with a 3.09 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs over six innings (striking out seven) in a loss to Colorado on Saturday. Coors Field though is a difficult one for most pitchers, so I’m not reading too much into one sub-par effort. Note that Buehler still owns an awesome 2.23 ERA in all “night” games. Flaherty is so far 8-6 with a 2.92 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs over five innings while striking out six in a loss to Detroit on Saturday. Flaherty looks to get back on track here and improve upon his already impressive 2.68 ERA in front of the home town crowd this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well by LA has seen the total go “under” in eight of its last 13 National League road night games in which the line in the contest is set between -150 and +150. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-14-18 | Nationals -137 v. Braves | Top | 5-10 | Loss | -137 | 12 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. That said, I do think that Max Scherzer and the opportunistic Nationals are worth the price of admission in this one. The home side sends Kevin Gausman to the hill. The pitchers: Scherzer is so far 17-6 with a 2.31 ERA. The veteran is in line for a Cy Young award and he’ll be looking to improve upon his already impressive 8-3, 2.04 ERA record on the road. Gausman is so far 9-10 with a 3.89 ERA. He most recently got shelled for four runs off seven hits with four walks over 4.2 innings in a loss to the Diamondbacks on Friday. Overall Gausman has been solid for his new club, but I still think he’s in well over his head in this match-up. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Washington is 7-2 in its last nine night National League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Bank on Scherzer coming in focused in this important matchup and lay the price. |
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09-14-18 | Blue Jays v. Yankees OVER 9 | Top | 0-11 | Win | 103 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jays Marco Estrada was dominant in 2015, but it’s now the end of 2018 and the veteran has been sliding ever since. The Yanks’ Masahiro Tanaka has looked downright dominant at times this season, but also plain horrible in others. I think runs are going to be plentiful in this one Friday night. The pitchers: Estrada is so far 3-11 with a 5.32 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off five hits with two walks while striking out five over six innings in a no-decision to the Tribe on Friday. Previous to that though he’d bee shelled for 11 runs over 6.1 innings, spanning two starts. Note that he’s just 4-5 with a 5.57 ERA on the road as well. Tanaka is so far 11-5 with a 3.61 ERA. He comes in off a dominant outing against the Mariners on Friday, going eight shutout and striking out ten. Tanaka has been considerably more consistent than his inconsistent counterpart this year, but note that he’s still a pedestrian 4-5 with a 4.33 ERA at home this season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but the Yanks have seen the total go “over” the number in seven of their last nine American League night home games in which they’re a favorite in the -175 to -275 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-14-18 | Georgia State v. Memphis OVER 60 | Top | 22-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
The set-up: The home side will be eager to return to form here after a tough setback at Navy last weekend, eventually succumbing 22-21. Georgia State will be out to score an upset here and to atone for a lacklustre 41-7 loss to NC State last Saturday. This is the first ever meeting between the schools and I think each is going to be a wide open affair. The teams: Georgia State scored the first TD of the game last week, but then it was shut down and outscored by 41 points the rest of the way. QB Dan Ellington threw for 194 yards. In his team’s season opening win over Kennesaw State he threw for 187 yards. But the Panthers defense is atrocious in the early going, most recently allowing the Wolfpack to throw for 426 yards. In fact the secondary returns just one starter. Memphis smashed FCS Mercer 66-14, but it couldn’t hold on to a 21-9 lead over the Black Knights last week. Darrell Henderson had three TD runs, including 78 yard and 59 yard scampers. QB Brady White was 15 of 25 for 145 yards. The defense gave up 264 total yards. Last year the defense was a weak point, ranked 117th in the nation. The pick: The Tigers were particularly poor against the pass last year as well, ranked 122nd by allowing 282.1 YPG. Memphis didn’t have to worry about Army passing, but it’s going to have its hands full today with a Panthers team looking to air it out early and often. This one just screams “shootout.” Play the “over.” |
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09-13-18 | Ravens v. Bengals UNDER 44.5 | Top | 23-34 | Loss | -110 | 27 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This is an important early season divisional match-up. Both teams enter off high-scoring Week 1 victories, but on the short turn-around on Thursday night I’m expecting more of a “chess match” than a “run and gun shootout.” The teams: Baltimore opened the season with a 47-3 destruction of the Bills. The Ravens’ starters were rested for a great deal of the Week 1 blowout, including Joe Flacco, who was 25 of 34 for 236 yards and three TD’s. The Ravens’ defense was downright dominant though, holding the Bills to only 83 rushing yards and 70 passing yards. Cincinnati opened the year with a come-from-behind 34-23 road victory over the Colts. QB Andy Dalton was 21 of 28 for 243 yards, two TD’s and an interception. Last year the Bengals finished last in the NFL with only 280.5 yards of offense per game, so clearly this Week 1 victory was a step in the right direction. However, Dalton and company, especially WR AJ Green, have struggled against the Ravens’ ferocious defensive attack in the past and I think that’s going to be the case again here tonight also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Baltimore has seen the total go “under” the number in eight of its last 12 against the division, while Cincinnati has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 16 as an underdog. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-13-18 | Boston College -4.5 v. Wake Forest | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 24 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams come in at 2-0. The Golden Eagles though play with revenge and they have a deeper overall team this season. I think that’s going to be more than enough to propel the visitors to a victory tonight. The teams: BC smashed Holy Cross 62-14 last weekend. QB Anthony Brown only had to play one quarter. In Week 1 he had four TD’s against UMass. Wake Forest’s weakness on defense is against the pass, which clearly doesn’t bode well for the Demon Deacons tonight. RB AJ Dillon had 149 rushing yards last week. The defense limited Holy Cross to just 194 total yards. Wake Forest cruised to a 51-20 home win over Towson last week. QB Sam Hartman had two TD’s and 242 passing yards las week. He also has three INT’s early in the season though. RB Cade Carney had a big game with 130 rushing yards. The Demon Deacons looked sharp defensively against the lowly Tigers, holding them to just 65 rushing yards. The pick: Take it for what you will though, but the Demon Deacons are 0-4 ATS in their last four after allowing 280 or more passing yards in their previous game (note that Wake was 124th in the country in defending the pass last year and it just let Towson throw for over 300!), while the Eagles are 6-0-1 ATS in their last seven conference games. I look for BC QB Brown to have a very productive game here. Lay the points. |
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09-13-18 | Cubs -124 v. Nationals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: I think Mike Montgomery and the visiting side have the advantage on the road in this one. The home side sends Joe Ross to the hill to counter. The teams: Montgomery is so far 4-5 with a 3.85 ERA. His last start was skipped over due to a rain-out, so he comes in extra rested. Montgomery hasn’t been perfect this year, but note that he’s posted a very respectable 3.13 ERA on the road to this point. Ross is so far 0-0 with a 0.00 ERA. He re-joined the rotation after being out since July 2017 with Tommy John surgery, but his debut was cut short after just 1.2 innings because of rain. The pick: Ross looked decent in his re-hab, but clearly he draws a tough opponent here. Montgomery can take advantage and I think the southpaw will do just that. Great spot to pull the trigger on the visitors. Play on the Cubs. |
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09-12-18 | Yankees v. Twins UNDER 9 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. I think the Yanks’ Luis Severino and the Twins’ Jake Odorizzi will fight deep into the latter frames, which will in turn result in pushing this total “under” the number at the end of the night. The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-7 with a 3.52 ERA. After a disastrous August, Severino has looked more steady of late. While he’s been better at home than on the road, note that he still owns a very respectable 3.65 ERA in all “night” games. Odorizzi is so far 5-10 with a 4.57 ERA. Last year he was 10-8 with a 4.14 ERA, so 2018 has clearly been a step back for the hard-throwing right-hander. He’s coming off a loss against the Astros last week and while his ERA is nothing to write home about, I’ll point out that he does own the respectable 1.26 WHIP and 148:61 K/BB over 147.2 frames of work. The pick: Take it for what you as well, but New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 15 of its last 24 American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -200 range. This number is high, play the “under.” |
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09-12-18 | Padres v. Mariners -141 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -141 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I think that Wade LeBlanc is worth the price of admission in this particular match-up. The visitors go with Joey Lucchesi. The pitchers: Lucchesi is so far 7-8 with a 3.59 ERA. The rookie has likely been better than what his win/loss record would indicate, but I still think he’ll stumble here against LeBlanc in this difficult road venue. LeBlanc is so far 8-3 with a 3.56 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings, continuing a trend of consistent form. Note that LeBlanc is 6-2 with a 3.63 ERA at home and an elite 7-2 with a 2.53 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle is 10-4 in its last 14 night inter-league home games in which it’s a favorite in the -150 to -225 range. Look for Lucchesi to take a step back and for LeBlanc to confidently take advantage. Lay the price. |
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09-12-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -163 | 6 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the mound this afternoon, that I have no issues at all in laying the the 1.5 runs for the much more reasonable price. The visitors go with Gerritt Cole, while the home side goes with Daniel Norris. The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off six hits with three walks while striking out nine over 5.2 innings in a win over the Angels in his last start. Cole has been sharp on the road as well, going 6-3 with a 2.81 ERA. Norris is so far 0-3 with a 5.47 ERA. He has struggled in his limited time so far this season and there’s no reason not to think that that pattern of futility won’t get carried over here as well. Note that he’s a terrible 0-2 with a 5.40 ERA in all “day” games also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine American League road games in which they’re a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Look for Cole to dominate from the start and for Norris to get the hook early and lay the 1.5 runs on the Astros. |
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09-11-18 | White Sox v. Royals -130 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither of these staters instills much confidence and in my opinion, runs are going to be plentiful. The visitors hand the ball to Dylan Covey, while the home side goes with Brad Keller. The pitchers: Covey is so far 5-12 with a 5.44 ERA. He’s made strides over the last month, but note that he’s still just 2-6 with an atrocious 6.39 ERA on the road. Keller is so far 7-6 with a 3.14 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over eight innings in a win over the Orioles on Friday. After a great run, Keller comes in off a loss against the Indians though and I think he’ll continue to regress here. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but KC has seen the total go “over” the number in ten of its last 17 American League night home games in which the line in the contest is set between -135 and +135. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-11-18 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 6.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-up on the mound, and this is one of those. The visitors go with Jose Urena, while the home side hands the ball to Jacob deGrom. The pitchers: Urena is so far 5-12 with a 4.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off four hits while striking out seven over seven innings in a victory over the Phillies on Monday. deGrom is so far 8-8 with a 1.68 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over six innings in a no-decision to the Dodgers on Monday. deGrom’s scheduled start was postponed on Monday due to rain, so he comes into this one with extra rest. The pick: deGrom has been even tougher at home on opponents than on the road, as evidenced by his tiny 1.59 ERA in such instances. Note as well that New York has seen the total go “under” the number in 12 of 20 this year as a home fav in the -125 to -175 range. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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09-11-18 | Dodgers -166 v. Reds | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -166 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of interesting match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. That said, for a number of different reasons I think that Hyun-Jin Ryu and the opportunistic Dodgers’ line-up have the advantage in this match-up. The home side goes with Luis Castillo. The pitchers: Ryu is so far 4-2 with a 2.16 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings while striking out five and walking none in a no-decision to Arizona on Friday. Over 52.1 frames of work he’s posted the 2.24 ERA and a tiny 0.96 WHIP, while also holding the opposition to a .198 batting average. Castillo is so far 8-12 with a 4.79 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off five hits over five innings in a loss to the Padres on Thursday. The pick: Castillo has been better at home than on the road this year, but he still owns a poor 4.51 ERA in all “night” games. Take it for what you will as well but the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine National League night road games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. Castillo’s slide into mediocrity continues and I expect Ryu to continue his solid end-of-season form. Lay the price. |
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09-10-18 | Rams v. Raiders OVER 47.5 | Top | 33-13 | Loss | -106 | 21 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: LA catches a break here after Jon Gruden traded defensive star Khalil Mack to the Bears for some draft picks. The Rams had the league’s highest scoring offense last year, so we can absolutely expect the visitors to push the pace and open up the playbook from start to finish. The teams: LA went 2-2 in the preseason, but it would rest most of its starters over those four games. Jared Goff and Todd Gurley are back and they now welcome dangerous WR Brandin Cooks to the mix. The Rams spent a ton of money on the defensive side of the ball in the offseason, but I think the unit will struggle on opening night. Jordy Nelson will be the main WR in Oakland now that Michael Crabtree is gone. Amari Cooper will also be hoping for a much better season after totalling just 680 yards in 14 games last season. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine Week 1 home games when the total in the contest is between 47 and 50 points. With LA pushing the tempo of this one and with the home side having no choice but to match pace, I’m banking on this one flying “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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09-10-18 | Braves v. Giants +114 | Top | 4-1 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. However, the Braves Sean Newcomb has been scuffling of late and I expect that end of season decline to continue here in this difficult National League road venue. The home side goes with Derek Rodriguez, who appears to be getting better and more confident as the season has worn on. The pitchers: Newcomb is so far 11-8 with a 3.92 ERA. He comes in off five straight poor outings, a stretch of futility in which he’s posted a disastrous 8.58 ERA. Rodriguez is so far 6-2 with a 2.41 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off six hits while striking out six and walking one over six innings in a no-decision to Colorado on Tuesday. Of his 15 games he’s gone to the hill this year, the rookie has thrown 12 quality efforts. To go along with his elite ERA, Rodriguez also owns a shiny 1.05 WHIP. The pick: Additionally note that Rodriguez is holding his opponents to a tiny .211 hitting average. And finally it’s worth noting that he’s 4-1 with a 2.10 ERA at home. I think Rodriguez is well worth the price of admission vs. the struggling Newcomb. Play on San Francisco. |
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09-10-18 | Jets v. Lions -6.5 | Top | 48-17 | Loss | -110 | 32 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jets turn to rookie QB Sam Darnold in Week 1 and while the sky could in fact be the limit for the red-headed pivot, I think he’ll stumble trying to match pace with Lions’ veteran Matt Stafford. The teams: In three exhibition games Darnold went 29 of 45 for 244 yards and two TD’s with an INT. The Jets have talent, but no big names. Jermaine Kearse had 65 catches for 810 yards last year, but note that he could be unable to play in Week 1 due to an injury he suffered in the preseason. Bilal Powell and Isaiah Crowell lead a decent ground game. The defense was a strength for New York last year and the unit should be again this season as well. Matt Patricia takes over as head coach for the Lions, as he looks to get the team over the hump. Stafford finished with 4,449 yards, 29 TD’s and ten INT’s last season. LeGarrette Blount was signed in the offseason and he’s expected to bolster a run game which was severely lacking last year. Also note that both of Stafford’s 1,000 yard receivers return in Marvin Jones Jr. and Golden Tate. The pick: Take it for what you will as well but Detroit is 5-1 ATS in its last six Monday Night Football games, while New York is 0-4-1 ATS in its last five road games as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range. Lay the points and expect a rout. Play on Detroit. |
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09-10-18 | Astros -1.5 v. Tigers | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -175 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: “The Prodigal Son” returns to his former stomping grounds, looking to dominate on the road. For a number of different reasons, I absolutely believe that Justin Verlander and the defending champs on the run-line (-1.5) is the correct move. The Tigers send Francisco Liriano to the hill. The pitchers: Verlander is so far 14-9 with a 2.73 ERA. He’s been trading good starts with bad ones of late (for his incredibly high standards anyways), but he has to be feeling confident here, coming in sporting the still elite 11-2, 2.26 ERA on the road this season. Liriano is so far 4-9 with a 4.90 ERA. He has been a disappointment for a second straight year and he can’t be feeling too confident at all here, as note that he’s a terrible 2-3 with a 5.55 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Astros are 7-2 in their last nine night American League road games in which they are a favorite in the -200 to -300 range. Lay the 1.5 runs on Houston in this one. |
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09-09-18 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 48 | Top | 23-24 | Win | 100 | 153 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important early NFC North match-up on Sunday Night Football and when the smoke clears at the end of this one, I think it’ll be the defenses from each side which will define this contest in the end. Chicago hasn’t been to the playoffs since 2010, while Green Bay missed the postseason last year with QB Aaron Rodgers injured. The teams: Chicago got Khalil Mack from Oakland and he’s going to make an immediate impact on an already stacked defensive uint: “We’ll get to see where he’s at mentally and then physically we’ll have a practice and get an idea, and then we’ll just kind of have to listen to his feedback where he’s at,” head coach Matt Nagy said earlier in the week. “We told him, communication is imperative here.” The defense also has standouts Akiem Hick and CB Prince Amukamara. Rodgers is back under center for Green Bay and he looks primed for another productive campaign. However note that the Pack head into the 2018/19 campaign after massive organizational turnover, because of last year’s losing effort. Rodgers is fantastic, but there are still a few questions that need to be answered for Green Bay in my opinion. The pick: I think the Packers are a bit one-dimensional and the new look Bears offense is going to be able to slow it down and take advantage. This one has the feel of a “chess match,” rather than a “run and gun” shootout. Play the “under.” |
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09-09-18 | Cowboys v. Panthers OVER 42.5 | Top | 8-16 | Loss | -110 | 149 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams which fell well below expectations last year collide on opening day on Sunday afternoon and in my opinion, points appear plentiful. The teams: Dez Bryant and Jason Witten are gone, but the Cowboys are in good hands with Dak Prescott and a fully healthy and ready to go Ezekiel Elliot. Dallas has a lot of questions on both sides of the ball, but the offense is going to be given the green light to “air it out” all day long this afternoon. The Panthers went 3-1 in the preseason, dropping only their Week 4 contest. Cam Newton had a strong camp and I think he’ll have a big day here against a Cowboys’ defense which also has many question marks surrounding it. Kelvin Benjamin, Greg Olsen and Devin Funchess highlight a deep overall offense for Carolina. The pick: Newton looked good under new offensive coordinator Norv Turner’s schemes in the pre-season, which doesn’t bode well for the visitors today. Prescott and company will be forced to match pace and in the end, look for this one to fly “over” sooner, rather than later. |
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09-09-18 | Chiefs v. Chargers -3 | Top | 38-28 | Loss | -122 | 149 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: KC won the AFC West last year with a 10-6 record, but then it fell 22-21 at home to Tennessee in the Wild Card round. LA went 9-7 last year, but missed the playoffs. Note that this a “double revenge” game for the Chargers though after the Chiefs took both games last season. The teams: Chiefs’ QB Patrick Mahomes was 22 of 35 for 284 yards, no TD’s and an INT in his limited time last year. KC’s ground game looks strong though with Kareem Hunt, who had 1,327 rushing yards and eight scores, along with 53 catches for 455 yards and three more TD’s. Travis Kelce will also be leaned upon heavily after finishing with 1,038 yards and eight TD’s last season. The Chargers go with veteran QB Philip Rivers, who had 4,515 yards, 28 TD’s and ten INT’s last year. RB Melvin Gordon had 1,105 rushing yards and eight TD’s, along with 476 receiving yards and another four TD’s. WR Keenan Allen had 1,393 yards receiving and six TD’s. The pick: Take it for what you will, but the Chargers are 5-0-1 ATS in their last six Week 1 games and 4-1 ATS in their last five home games overall, while KC is just 1-4 ATS in its last five on the road. I’m banking on Rivers easily out duelling Mahomes. Lay the points.
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09-09-18 | 49ers v. Vikings -4.5 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 1369 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Kick Cousins makes his Vikings debut against the 49ers and QB Jimmy Garappolo. The 49ers blew up their team after ten games last year and they never looked back with Garappolo under center. That said, I think he’ll be in for a rude awakening at what will undoubtedly be a rowdy atmosphere at the US Bank Stadium. The teams: Garoppolo was 5-0 as a starter for San Francisco last year. It was an unbelievable run, but regression seems imminent in my opinion. The Vikings possessed the best defensive unit in the league last year, one which was even better in front of the home town crowd. The pick: This is an “early,” release, so I plan on updating my analysis as we get closer to game time. However, over the time of this release and when this one kicks off, I do indeed expect this line to climb. Normally at this time of year the defensive units are many steps ahead of the offensive side and that’s exactly what I’m expecting in this one. Combined with the competent Cousins and a Vikings team looking to take out its frustrations after the loss in the NFC Championship Game last year, this one has “blowout” written all over it in my opinion. Lay the points, play on the Vikes. |
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09-09-18 | Steelers v. Browns +6 | Top | 21-21 | Win | 100 | 146 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Many will be on Pittsburgh here I think. But the Browns looked sharp in the preseason with their “new look” line-up and I think they’ll keep this one interesting late. The Steelers were 13-3 last year, while Cleveland was 0-16. Not surprisingly this is indeed a “revenge” game for the Browns, who lost both games last season. The teams: The Steelers averaged 25.4 PPG last year and allowed 19.3. Ben Roethlisberger is back under center, and Le’Veon Bell is back as RB. Note Bell did not play in a single preseason game, the same as last year. The Browns have plenty of new weapons on both sides of the ball and up and down the lines. Tyrod Taylor had 2,799 passing yards with a 14:4 TD/INT ratio last year for the Bills, as well as adding 427 rushing yards. Taylor, along with RB Carlos Hyde and WR Josh Gordon present a difficult challenge for anyone. In 11 games last year Myles Garrett made seven sacks, but the talented defender now comes into this season at 100% health finally. The pick: While they did lose both games to the Steelers last year, the Browns would make it competitive each time, falling 28-24 and 21-18. When the smoke clears at the end of this one I think we’ll see similarly hard-fought battle. Grab the points. |
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09-09-18 | Titans v. Dolphins | Top | 20-27 | Loss | -125 | 146 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: The Titans finished 9-7 last year and they beat the Chiefs 22-21 in the Wild card round of the playoffs, before then falling 35-14 to New England in the Divisional round. The Fish were just 6-10 last year, but with the return of QB Ryan Tannehill, Miami is hoping for a return to the postseason. Tannehill though lacks talent around him and I think the “deeper” Titans will pull away down the stretch. The teams: Tennessee’ QB Marcus Mariota had 3,232 yards with 13 TDs and 15 INTs last season. He also had 312 yards and five scores on the ground. RB Derrick Henry leads the ground attack after DeMarco Murray retired and he had 744 yards and five TD’s last year. Tannehill makes his first appearance since 2016, when he went for 2,995 yards 19 TD’s and 12 INT’s. Kenyan Drake had 644 yards and three TD’s rushing last year, while WR Danny Amendola had 659 yards and two TD’s. The pick: For this pick I’m going to focus on the starting QB’s and while Tannehill could be the saviour once again for Miami, I think Marriota is the correct call here. The Titans’ pivot comes off a very successful season and he should only be better again this year under the same system. This one has blowout written all over it, play on Tennessee. |
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09-08-18 | UTEP +24.5 v. UNLV | Top | 24-52 | Loss | -106 | 130 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The UTEP Miners come in off a 30-10 home loss to Northern Arizona, while UNLV fell 43-21 to USC last week. No outright upset here, but I think the visitors can keep it interesting late. The teams: Last week the Miners only managed 229 yards. Kai Locksley had 120 yards passing on 26 attempts. Last year UTEP had the nation’s worst offense, but it’s expected to take a few steps forward this season with many starters returning. The defense was solid, allowing 318 total yards, including just three yards per rush average. UNLV’s Armani Rogers was just 12 of 27 for 97 yards last week, but he did have two TD passes, while also rushing for 82 yards. RB Lexington Thomas was a bright spot with 136 yards on 14 carries. Last year the offense averaged 28.8 points. The UNLV defense fell apart late last week, after allowing 31.8 PPG last year. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but UNLV is just 1-4 ATS in its last five following an ATS win. UTEP’s improved and with nothing to lose here, I look for it to indeed put up a bit of a fight. Grab the points. |
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09-08-18 | Tulsa v. Texas -21 | Top | 21-28 | Loss | -106 | 129 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Texas comes in off an inexplicable loss at home to Maryland it’ll be risking life and limb today to get back on track. Thankfully for the ‘Horns, The Golden Hurricane come to town. Everything points to a lop-sided blowout in this one. The teams: Tulsa nearly fell to FCS school Central Arkansas last Saturday, needing a fourth quarter come from behind effort to beat the Bears 38-27. QB Luke Skipper was 15 of 24 for 196 yards and two TD’s. The last time the Golden Hurricane faced a Big 12 team it didn’t go too well though, falling 59-26 at No. 10 Oklahoma State last season. Texas’ late rally fell short last week. QB Same Ehlinger had 263 yards and two TD’s. He also had two INT’s. It was an all around uncharacteristically sloppy game for the Longhorns, also suffering ten penalties for 102 yards. The pick: I think it’s impossible for Texas to play that horribly again though. I’l point out at as well that Texas has not opened 0-2 since 1992. Look for the ‘Horns to settle down at home and to take advantage of this suspect Golden Hurricanes’ defense. Lay the points. |
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09-08-18 | Cardinals -157 v. Tigers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -157 | 11 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is no doubt one of them. I think that the Jack Flaherty and the hard-hitting Cards are well worth the price of admission in this spot. The home side sends Matt Boyd to the hill to counter. The pitchers: Flaherty is so far 8-6 with a 2.83 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off three hits while striking out five in a no-decision to Washington on Monday. Overall Flaherty has been solid this year, in fact he appears to be getting stronger as the season comes to a close. Note that he’s a very respectable 4-3 with a 2.79 ERA on the road. Boyd is so far 9-12 with a 4.24 ERA. After a great start against the White Sox, Boyd took a step back in his last outing against the Royals. Boyd’s been better at home than on the road this season, but note that he still comes in sporting a poor 4-9, 5.07 ERA in all “night” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but St. Louis is 7-2 in its last nine inter-league night contests in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. I like Flaherty to continue his progression and to easily out duel the “on again, off again” Boyd. Lay the price. |
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09-08-18 | Maryland v. Bowling Green +16 | Top | 45-14 | Loss | -109 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Maryland comes in off a big win over No. 23 Texas from Landover last weekend and I think it’ll suffer a predictable letdown here. Well, enough of one anyways for the hungry Bowling Green Falcons to comfortably cover with the healthy spread they’ve been afforded. The teams: Maryland QB Kasim Hill was 17 of 29 for 222 yards and one TD. RB Jeshaun Jones had a TD, threw a TD pass and also caught a TD pass. Defensively though the Terps were a bit of a disappointment, allowing 405 yards total, including 263 yards through the air. Bowling Green fell 58-24 at Oregon last week. Last year the Green Falcons were just 2-10 overall and 2-6 in the MAC. QB Jarret Doege was 22 of 38 for 253 yards, three TD’s and two INT’s. The Falcons looked good early, but then they fell apart in the second half. Note that the running game did produce 155 yards. The pick: The Green Falcons actually return seven starters on the defensive side and now that they’ve gotten the high-flying Ducks out of the way, I think the unit will have an opportunity against the Terps aggressive offense (which I stated off the top will suffer a letdown after last week’s big road upset.) I’m not calling for the outright win, but I’m definitely expecting a “war.” Grab the points. |
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09-08-18 | Appalachian State v. Charlotte +13.5 | Top | 45-9 | Loss | -106 | 127 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: Appalachian State comes in off a heart-breaking 45-38 OT loss at No. 10 Penn State last weekend and I think it’s going to suffer a predictable letdown here. Well, enough of one anyways for Charlotte to comfortably cover with this healthy spread. The 49ers come in off a 34-10 win over Fordham. The teams: App State had a 451-434 total yardage edge in last week’s loss, as QB Zac Thomas was 25 of 38 for 270 yards, two TD’s and an INT, while also running for 43 yards and another score. Jalin Moore led the ground attack with 88 yards and a score. Charlotte held a 488-287 yard advantage last week over Fordham, as QB Chris Reynolds went 13 of 20 for 267 yards and a score. Benny LeMay had 25 carries for 135 yards and two TD’s. LeMay also had three catches for 83 yards. The pick: Appalachian State laid everything it had on the line and it still wasn’t enough against Penn State last week. I think the Mountaineers come in dejected, while the 49ers can only come in encouraged. In a much closer than expected battle, I’m grabbing the points. |
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09-08-18 | Georgia -9.5 v. South Carolina | Top | 41-17 | Win | 100 | 125 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Georgia has won three straight in this series and I think the Bulldogs are going to once again pull away big on Saturday afternoon. The teams: Georgia opened the season with a 45-0 win over FCS Austin Peay. QB Jake Fromm was 12 of 16 for 157 yards and two TD’s. Fromm only played half the game before making room for his backups. In all Georgia would post 508 yards of offense and nine different players had at least one carry, while another 11 had at least one caught pass. The defense was a strength last year and while the Week 1 win can’t be considered a true test, the unit still looked sharp in allowing just 152 yards of total offense to the Governors. The Gamecocks were held to under 20 points in four of their eight SEC games last year. In Week 1 South Carolina looked pretty good though in its 49-15 thrashing of Coastal Carolina. Jake Bentley was 22 of 29 for 250 yards and four TD’s, while RB Rico Dowle had 105 yards on 15 carries. The pick: Fromm had 196 yards and two TD’s in last year’s 24-10 win over South Carolina, while the defense had two INT’s. Bentley was 21 of 35 for 227 yards, a TD and two INT’s in the loss. the Gamecocks’ only victory in 12 road games against Top 5 teams dating back to the mid 90’s occurred on October 26th, 2013. I think the Bulldogs’ smothering defense proves to be too much for South Carolina in the end. Lay the points. |
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09-08-18 | Rutgers +35 v. Ohio State | Top | 3-52 | Loss | -106 | 124 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: I’m of course not calling for an outright upset, but after Ohio State’s 77-31 throttling of Oregon State in Week 1, I think the Buckeyes come in a bit complacent in this Week 2 “cream puff,” leaving the back door open just wide enough for the Scarlet Knights to sneak in through down the stretch. The teams: Rutgers comes in off a 35-7 win over Texas State. QB Artur Sitkowski was a bit shaky with three INT’s, but he’d also go 20 of 30 for 205 yards and a TD. The Scarlet Knights will clearly have their hands full defensively today, but the unit looked pretty good in Week 1 anyways. Ohio State was playing under interim Ryan Day last week and it would still go on to post 721 yards of offense. QB Dwayne Haskins was 22 of 30 for 313 yards and five TD’s, while also running for 24 yards and two more TD’s. The pick: Clearly Ohio State is on an entirely different level than Rutgers, but the Scarlet Knights are without question improved from last season’s team and they won’t be going down without a fight this afternoon. With an interesting game at TCU next weekend, I think Ohio State gets caught looking past its lowly opponent. Grab the points, play on Rutgers. |
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09-08-18 | Marlins v. Pirates OVER 8 | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: For the most part these starting pitchers have struggled this year. Two veterans who have seen better days collide on Saturday afternoon and runs would appear to be plentiful. The visitors go with Wei-Yin Chen, while the home side goes with Ivan Nova. The pitchers: Chen is so far 6-9 with a 4.64 ERA. He comes in on a bit of “tear” having won two straight, most recently going eight innings. However, I’m not convinced that Chen has suddenly “turned a corner,” as note that he’s still owns a poor 5.55 ERA in all “day” games and he’s a terrible 1-6 with a 9.35 ERA on the road. Nova is so far 7-9 with a 4.35 ERA. His last start was skipped over due to a personal issue and while he’s been much better at home than on the road, I still think his overall inconsistency from game-to-game becomes a factor again today. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh has seen the total go “over” the number in 15 of its last 25 day National League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -175 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-08-18 | Liberty v. Army -9.5 | Top | 14-38 | Win | 100 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up:Liberty is on the road after collecting its first FBS win in a 52-10 blow-out victory over Old Dominion last Saturday. Army though comes in “hungrier” after it fell 34-14 at Duke last Friday. The teams: The Liberty Flames had a 595-301 yards advantage over ODU, with Stephen Calvert going 25 of 36 for 345 yards and four TD’s. Ketory Matthews had 101 yards on the ground and a TD as well. Army was only out gained 381-365 in its Week 1 setback. Also note that it had a hefty 36:06 to 23:54 in time possession. QB Kelvin Hopkins Jr. was 10 of 21 for 197 yards and a score, while Calen Holt had 54 yards on seven carries. The pick: Beating ODU is one thing, but beating a hungry Army team at home is quite another. Last year the Golden Knights had their best season in a decade behind one of the nation’s leading run games. Until Liberty can prove it can hang with some of the more respected schools, you have to love Army to bounce back in friendly confines. And in a big way! Lay the points. |
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09-07-18 | TCU -21 v. SMU | Top | 42-12 | Win | 100 | 107 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Does anyone think that TCU is going to find a way to lose this one outright, or in any other way but in blowout fashion? I’m expecting a lop-sided destruction from start to finish and I therefore have no issues at all in laying this larger spread. The Horned Frogs smashed Southern 55-7 last week, while SMU fell 46-23 at North Texas. The teams: TCU QB Shawn Robinson was 17 of 24 for 182 yards and three TD’s last week. RB Darius Anderson had 36 yards last week after finishing with 768 last year. TCU averaged 33.7 PPG last season and the offense will once again be a strength this year as well. But not to be outdone, the defense was even better for the Horned Frogs, allowing only 19 PPG. SMU averaged 37.8 PPG last season, but it would unfortunately allow 36.7 at the same time. Last week the Mustangs allowed 530 total yards to the Mean Green. Also note that QB Ben Hicks’ numbers are skewed, as most of his stats came in garbage time, finishing with 252 passing yards, two TD’s and an INT. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but SMU is 0-4 ATS in its last four after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game, while TCU is 4-1 ATS in its last five on field turf. After giving up 46 points to North Texas last week, look for the Mustangs to fail miserably here again. Lay the points.
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09-07-18 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 8.5 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of very competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Gerrit Cole, while the home side goes with David Price. The pitchers: Cole is so far 13-5 with a 2.86 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs while striking out nine over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Sunday. Cole clearly comes in confident here sporting a 6-3, 2.79 ERA record on the road as well. Price is so far 14-6 with a 3.60 ERA. He got hit by a liner in his last start, but he’s been given the green light to go here. Price is putting together one of his best campaigns of his career as well, note that he’s 7-2 with a 3.01 ERA at home so far. The pick: This is a great match-up and I expect these two “studs” to fight into the latter frames. And as a result, look for this one to sneak “under” once it’s all said and done. |
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09-07-18 | Indians -1.5 v. Blue Jays | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -134 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: I think that the massive talent-gap on the mound this evening makes the Tribe on the “run-line” the correct call in this match-up. The Indians go with the steady Carlos Carrasco, while the home side goes with the erratic Marco Estrada. The pitchers: Carrasco is so far 16-8 with a 3.52 ERA. He most recently comes in off his worst outing of 2018, allowing five runs off nine hits (also striking out nine) over seven innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Sunday. Starts like that have been rare for Carrasco the last two years though, so there’s no need to over-react in my opinion. Note that he still owns a sharp 3.53 ERA and 187:33 K/BB over 161 innings of work this season. Estrada is so far 7-11 with a 5.43 ERA. He most recently got blasted for a second straight start, giving up six earned run over 4.1 innings in a loss to Miami on Saturday. Estrada is limping towards the finish line now, having allowed 48 base runners over his last 23.2 innings of work. The pick: And note that home field advantage has been anything but for Estrada this year as he’s a poor 3-6 with a 5.79 ERA in Toronto. Take it for what you will as well, but Cleveland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League road games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -225 range. Play on the Indians on the “run line.” |
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09-07-18 | Padres v. Reds -150 | Top | 6-12 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound, and there’s no doubt that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Brett Kennedy, while the home side goes with Anthony DeSclafani. The pitchers: Kennedy is so far 1-2 with a 5.76 ERA. The rookie has struggled for the most part in his limited time and he stays in the starting rotation out of necessity. Note that he’s 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA on the road. DeSclafani is 7-4 with a 4.37 ERA. He comes in off consecutive strong outings. DeSclafani has looked better as the season has progressed and he also sports a sharp 1.19 WHIP. The pick: Additionally note that DeSclafani is 4-2 with a respectable 4.14 ERA at home. And take it for what you will as well, but the Reds are 7-2 in their last nine night National League home games in which they are a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. I expect DeSclafani to come in focused on the task at hand. Lay the price, play on the Reds. |
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09-06-18 | Falcons v. Eagles OVER 45 | Top | 12-18 | Loss | -105 | 81 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Two teams with something to prove in 2018/19 collide on Opening Night and in my opinion, scoring is going to be plentiful. The Falcons lost to Philadelphia 15-10 in the NFC Divisional playoffs back on January 13th and they’ll obviously be looking to avenge that setback. Philadelphia has question marks all over the place, but the defending champs are still loaded with talent on both sides of the ball. The teams: Last year the Falcons led the league in dropped passes with 30. QB Matt Ryan will be expecting better from his talented group this year. Ryan had 4,095 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 interceptions last season. Julio Jones had 1,444 receiving yards, but just three major scores. ATL still possess one of the best “one-two” RB combo’s in Tevin Coleman and Devonta Freeman as well. The Eagles allowed only 19.7 PPG last year, but note that they had just eight INT’s overall. Carson Wentz? Nick Foles? Whoever starts under center for Philadelphia, the home side is in good hands. In three playoff games Foles completed 72.6 percent of his passes. Jay Ajayi is the main RB now, along with Corey Clement, who is a great pass catcher out of the backfield. The strength of the offense is the line though and it will be once again this year as well with the return of Pro Bowl LT Jason Peters. The pick: The last thing Atlanta can do here is play to the Eagles “pace.” Look for the high-flying visitors to push the tempo from start to finish and expect this total to soar “over” as it comes down the stretch. |
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09-06-18 | Padres v. Reds OVER 8.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -116 | 21 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither pitcher can be satisfied with their overall performance in 2018. The Padres turn to Eric Lauer, while the Reds go with Luis Castillo. The pitchers: Lauer is so far 5-7 with a 5.01 ERA. He most recently gave up one run off no hits with two walks while striking out two over five innings against the Rockies on Thursday. He only generated three swinging strikes though and note that a date on the road is not what the doctor ordered to carry over the momentum, as Lauer is a poor 2-3 with a 5.98 ERA away from friendly confines this season. Castillo is so far 8-11 with a 4.83 ERA. He most recently comes in off a strong effort as well, going 6.2 scoreless and striking out 11 in a victory over St. Louis on Saturday. Castillo has admittedly looked a bit better of late, but note that he’s still owns a very pedestrian 4.67 ERA in all night games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but the Reds have seen the total go “over” the number in ten of their last 16 night National League home games in which they’re a favorite in the -105 to -150 range. This number is low considering the inconsistencies of these starting pitchers, play the “over.”
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09-05-18 | Orioles v. Mariners OVER 8 | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: This American League match-up on Wednesday night features two pitchers who have seen better days. I expect the total to eclipse the number sooner, rather than later in this one. The visitors go with Andrew Cashner, while the home side goes with Mike Leake. The pitchers: Cashner is so far 4-13 with a 4.86 ERA. He most recently gave up four runs off nine hits with three walks over 5.1 innings while striking out one in a loss to the Royals on Friday. Note that Cashner comes in sport a terrible 2-7, 5.27 ERA record on the road. Leake is so far 8-9 with a 4.25 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off seven hits in a loss to Arizona on Sunday. Overall Leake’s been solid for the most part this season, although not really at home with a pedestrian 3-5, 4.29 ERA record. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last ten night American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is low, play the “over.” |
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09-05-18 | Yankees v. A's +1.5 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 14 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no doubt this is one of them. Yanks’ ace Luis Severino is a favorite for a reason in this match-up, but I think he’s a little over-valued. In the end I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs and the reasonable price on Mike Fiers and the home side. The pitchers: Severino is so far 17-6 with a 3.32 ERA. After an unsustainable start, Severino cooled off some over August. He’s been solid overall, although he does sport a rather pedestrian 4.01 ERA on the road. Fiers is so far 10-6 with a 3.38 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs over 3.2 innings in a loss to the Mariners on Friday. In four previous starts for the A’s Fiers had been nearly un-hittable, but he’d finally come back down to Earth in this one. The pick: Starts like that though have been few and far between for Fiers this season, who still owns a sharp 1.18 WHIP over 146.2 innings of work. Take it for what you will as well, but Oakland is 7-2 in its last nine night American League home games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. Play on the A’s on the “run line.” |
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09-05-18 | Mets v. Dodgers -180 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -180 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. However, I believe that Hyun Jin-Ryu and the Dodgers are worth the price of admission tonight. The visitors go with Zack Wheeler. The pitchers: Wheeler is so far 9-7 with a 3.37 ERA. He most recently gave up one run over seven innings, striking out none and receiving a no-decision for his effort against the Giants on Friday. Wheeler’s been on a great run of late, but one has to wonder how long he can sustain without showing some sort of regression? Ryu is so far 4-1 with a 2.24 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs off four hits over seven innings while also striking out five in a no-decision to Arizona on Friday. Over 52.1 innings Ryu has a 2.24 ERA and tiny 0.96 WHIP. The pick: Ryu is also holding the opposition to a minuscule .186 batting average and note that he’s 3-1 with a 1.21 ERA at home. As good as Wheeler has been, I think the Mets’ anemic offense comes up short against Ryu. Look for the Dodgers to take advantage and lay this price. |
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09-05-18 | Reds v. Pirates -188 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 24 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I feel that the talent-gap is so great between these starting pitchers, that I have no issues at all in laying this larger price. The visitors go with Homer Bailey, while the home side goes with Jameson Taillon. The pitchers: Bailey is so far 1-13 with a 6.13 ERA. He most recently was shelled for seven runs off nine hits over five innings in a loss to St. Louis on Friday. To go along with his atrocious ERA, Bailey also owns a poor 1.65 WHIP and note that he’s just 1-7 with a 5.94 ERA on the road. Taillon is so far 11-9 with a 3.45 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs over seven innings while striking out seven in a 3-2 win over the Braves on Friday. The pick: Taillon comes in smoking hot, having posted seven straight quality starts to go along with a sharp 2.64 ERA and 37:9 K/BB over 47.2 frames during that stretch. Look for Taillon to come in focused on the task at hand and lay this price without any worries. |
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09-05-18 | Red Sox v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
PITCHING CHANGE! NO PLAY! |
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09-04-18 | Orioles v. Mariners -184 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -184 | 14 h 12 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and this is no doubt one of them. In fact I feel that the talent-gap is so large between these starters, that I have no issues at all in laying this larger price. The visitors hand the ball to Alex Cobb, while the home side goes with Wade LeBlanc. The pitchers: Cobb is so far 4-15 with a 5.11 ERA. He most recently gave up five runs off eight hits with two walks over five innings in a no-decision to Toronto on Wednesday. Seven of the eight hits he gave up were for extra bases. Note that he’s just 4-8 with a 5.22 ERA on the road this year. LeBlanc is so far 8-3 with a 3.71 ERA. He most recently went seven scoreless in a victory over the A’s on Thursday. LeBlanc hasn’t been perfect this year, but he’s been sharp at home with a 6-2, 3.75 ERA record. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but note that Seattle is 8-3 in its last 11 night home games in which it’s a favorite in the -175 to -250 range. Look for Cobb to implode early and for LeBlanc to take take advantage. Lay the price. |
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09-04-18 | Red Sox v. Braves OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -124 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: These starters have looked brilliant at times this year and poor in others. Neither has looked great of late though and I think each is going to get the hook early in this one. The visitors hand the ball to Rick Porcello, while the home side goes with Sean Newcomb. The pitchers: Porcello is so far 15-7 with a 4.27 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off six hits with two walks over five innings in a loss to Tampa Bay on Saturday. Over five August starts Porcello stumbled to a 2-3, 4.78 ERA performance. Newcomb is so far 11-7 with a 3.85 ERA. He most recently was rocked for six runs off eight hits with two walks in a loss to the Rays on Wednesday. Over his last four starts he’s posted a horrible 8.48 ERA and clearly that doesn’t bode well facing the league’s No. 1 offense. The pick: I think Porcello takes a step back in this difficult National League venue, while Newcomb also looks poised to continue his spiral down the proverbial crapper against this elite hitting line-up. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State -5 | Top | 24-3 | Loss | -112 | 1084 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important ACC match-up on Monday night between the No. 20 VT Hokies and the No. 19 FSU Seminoles. The teams: Virginia Tech was 9-4 last year and 5-3 in in league play, which was then followed by a 30-21 loss to OK State in the Camping World Bowl. Last year the Hokies averaged 28.2 PPG and allowed just 14.8. While duplicating those suffocating defensive numbers will be difficult with many of those key players gone, the pieces are still in place for another productive campaign on that side of the ball. Josh Jackson is the man under center and he finished with a 20/9 TD/INT and had 324 rushing yards as well. Florida State went 7-6 last year and 3-5 in ACC play, followed by a loss to Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 PPG last year and they allowed 21.2. The defense was a strength last season and it will be again this year as well with many of the starters returning. Deondre Francois is the starting QB and he missed most of last season with injury. The pick: Francois though had a 20/8 TD:INT in 2016 and he comes in with a ton of experience. Take it for what you will as well, but VT is just 2-4 ATS in its last six as an underdog. I think FSU is the more complete team through all three phases, as questions do remain about VT’s defense. Lay the points. |
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09-03-18 | Virginia Tech v. Florida State UNDER 55 | Top | 24-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: It’s an important ACC match-up on Monday night between the No. 20 VT Hokies and the No. 19 FSU Seminoles. The teams: Virginia Tech was 9-4 last year and 5-3 in in league play, which was then followed by a 30-21 loss to OK State in the Camping World Bowl. Last year the Hokies averaged 28.2 PPG and allowed just 14.8. While duplicating those suffocating defensive numbers will be difficult with many of those key players gone, the pieces are still in place for another productive campaign on that side of the ball. Josh Jackson is the man under center and he finished with a 20/9 TD/INT and had 324 rushing yards as well. Florida State went 7-6 last year and 3-5 in ACC play, followed by a loss to Southern Mississippi in the Independence Bowl. The Seminoles averaged 27.8 PPG last year and they allowed 21.2. The defense was a strength last season and it will be again this year as well with many of the starters returning. Deondre Francois is the starting QB and he missed most of last season with injury. The pick: Take it for what you will, but VT has seen the total go “under” the number in its last two as an underdog in the 3.5 to ten points range, while FSU has seen the total go “under” in ten of its last 15 against the conference. This number is high, play the “under.”
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09-03-18 | Padres v. Diamondbacks -1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -115 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. In fact I think that the talent-gap is so large on the hill tonight that I’m going to lay the 1.5 runs on Zack Godley and the home side. The Padres turn to Bryan Mitchell. The pitchers: Mitchell is so far 0-3 with a 7.08 ERA. He’s been activated from the DL to make this start. To go along with his terrible ERA, note that Mitchell also has a disturbingly poor 23:35 K/BB over 48.1 innings of work. Godley is so far 14-7 with a 4.42 ERA. He most recently allowed one run off two hits and a walk while striking out six over eight innings in a victory over the Giants on Wednesday. Godley has now posted a quality start in four of his last six outings. The pick: Note as well that Godley has been at his best at home this year by going 6-3 with a 3.52 ERA. Look for Godley to build off his latest performance and lay the 1.5 runs with confidence. Play on the Diamondbacks on the “run line.” |
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09-03-18 | Reds v. Pirates -131 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of lop-sided mis-matches on the mound, and this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to the erratic Matt Harvey, while the home side goes with the steady Trevor Williams. The pitchers: Harvey is so far 6-7 with a 4.97 ERA. He most recently was rocked for five runs off 11 hits over four innings in a no-decision to Milwaukee on Wednesday. Note that Harvey is a poor 2-5 with a 4.98 ERA on the road. Williams is so far 11-9 with a 3.30 ERA. He’s been a revelation for the Pirates this season and he’s been particularly potent of late. Note that Williams owns a very respectable 2.91 ERA at home. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Pittsburgh is 9-3 in its last 12 National League home day games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. No upsets here as I think Williams comes in focused and out-duels Harvey. Play on Pittsburgh. |
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09-03-18 | Red Sox v. Braves UNDER 9 | Top | 8-2 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and this is one of them. For a number of different reasons I think runs will be at a premium in this game. The visitors hand the ball to Nate Eovaldi, while the home side goes with Touki Toussaint. The pitchers: Eovaldi is so far 5-7 with a 4.35 ERA. After an unreal start for the Red Sox, Eovaldi predictably came crashing back down to Earth shortly after. Eovaldi hasn’t forgotten how to pitch though and note that he’s been at his best in all “day” games by posting a 4-1, 1.95 ERA record. Toussaint is 1-0 with a 1.50 ERA. In his first outing for the Braves he’d impress everyone by giving up one run over six innings in a victory over Miami. Clearly the Red Sox present an entirely different challenge, but the rookie showed enough to impress me to make me think he’ll be able to last into the latter frames again here. The pick: I think there’s a ton of value on the “under” as I expect these hungry starting pitchers to fight into the latter frames. This number is just a little high, play the “under.” |
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09-02-18 | Angels v. Astros -182 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
analysis soon |
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09-02-18 | Miami-FL v. LSU UNDER 47 | Top | 17-33 | Loss | -105 | 11 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: This is the lone game on Sunday night and for a number of different reasons, I think that points will be at a premium. Note that this is being played at a neutral field, at AT&T Stadium in Dallas. The teams: Miami Florida was 10-3 last year, including 7-2 in the ACC, followed by a setback to Wisconsin in the Orange Bowl. The Hurricanes return QB Malik Rosier, who had 3,120 passing yards and a 26:14 TD/INT along with 468 rushing yards. Miami averaged 29.1 PPG and it allowed just 21. LSU was 9-4 last year and 6-2 in SEC play, which was followed by a loss to Notre Dame in the Citrus Bowl. The Tigers have a big void to fill this season with QB Danny Etling gone. Myles Brennan and Joe Burrow will be duking it for the No. 1 spot. LSU averaged 27.2 PPG last year, but I think it’ll struggle to match that pace early. The defense was a strength (giving up only 18.9 PPG) and it will be again this year as well. The pick: These teams both have question marks on offense coming into the season, but each looks ready to build off an impressive defensive campaign with an even better performance this year. This number is a little high, play the “under.” |
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09-02-18 | Mariners v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Two pitchers who have seen better days collide on Sunday afternoon in this American League match-up. I believe runs will be plentiful with the Mariners turning to Felix Hernandez and the A’s going with Edwin Jackson. The pitchers: Hernandez is so far 8-12 with a 5.49 ERA. Hernandez has admittedly looked a lot better since an early August move to the bullpen in two subsequent starts, but note that he’s still a brutal 4-7 with a 6.95 ERA on the road. Jackson is so far 4-3 with a 3.03 ERA. After an un-sustainable start to his 2018/19 campaign, he’s come back down to Earth of late. Regardless though, Jackson has been decent overall, but note that he still owns a rather pedestrian 4.17 ERA in all “day” games. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but Seattle has seen the total go “under” the number in ten of its last 14 day American League road games in which it’s an underdog in the +105 to +150 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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09-02-18 | Cubs v. Phillies -143 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -143 | 5 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. However, I think that Aaron Nola and the Phillies are well worth the price of admission in this one. The visitors go with veteran Jon Lester on the mound The pitchers: Lester is so far 14-5 with a 3.67 ERA. He most recently comes in off a couple of decent outings and overall the southpaw has been fantastic this season. Lester’s been great, I simply feel he’s in the wrong place at the wrong time here. Nola is so far 15-3 with a 2.10 ERA. He most recently comes in off back-to-back gems over the Nationals and there’s no reason not to think that he won’t be able to carry that momentum over here as well. Note that he’s 9-0 with a tiny 1.94 ERA at home as well. The pick: I’m banking on Nola continuing his strong play as he continues his perfect streak at home. Play on Philadelphia. |
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09-02-18 | Tigers v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
The set-up: This match-up on the mound features two pitchers who come into the end of the season struggling. The visitors hand the ball to Matt Boyd, while the home side goes with Lance Lynn. The pitchers: Boyd is so far 8-12 with a 4.22 ERA. He most recently comes in off a poor outing against the light-hitting Royals on Wednesday and while Boyd’s likely pitched better than what his win/loss record would indicate, note that he’s still a very poor 2-9 with a 5.95 ERA on the road this year. Lynn is so far 8-9 with a 4.84 ERA. After a great stretch, Lynn has come back down to Earth of late for the Yanks. Note that he owns a poor 2-4, 5.90 ERA in all “day” games this season also. The pick: Take it for what you will as well, but New York has seen the total go “over” the number in seven of its last nine day American League home games in which it’s a favorite in the -125 to -200 range. This number is a little low, play the “over.” |
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09-02-18 | Tottenham Hotspur -149 v. Watford | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -149 | 2 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams have looked decent early, but for a number of different reasons, I think this one favors Tottenham. The pitchers: Watford has defeated Brighton, Burnley and Crystal Palace and it also bested Reading mid-week in the EFL Cup. The Spurs though present an entirely different challenge, who also come in with three straight victories to open. Tottenham has bested Newcastle 2-1, Fulham 3-1 and it then ended its losing streak at Old Trafford on Monday with a 3-0 victory. The pick: Note that Hornets are still winless in the last 13 in this series, including losing ten outright. Look for this strong trend to continue and lay the very reasonable mid-sized price on the “better” team. |
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09-01-18 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 22 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: This series features a couple of competitive match-ups on the mound and there’s no question that this is one of them. The visitors hand the ball to Patrick Corbin, while the home side goes with Clayton Kershaw. The pitchers: Corbin is so far 10-5 with a 3.15 ERA. He most recently gave up two runs while striking out eight over six innings in a victory over the Angels on Tuesday. While he didn’t factor into the decision, he still posted 18 swings and misses and over four trips to the hill in August he went 3-0 with a 2.73 ERA and 32:2 K/BB. Note that he’s 4-2 with a 3.04 ERA on the road. Kershsaw is so far 6-5 with a 2.39 ERA. He most recently gave up three runs off seven hits while striking out nine over eight innings in a no-decision to the Padres on Saturday. 77 of his 107 pitches went for strikes. Note that Kershaw haw now gone seven-plus innings in three of his last six outings. The pick: No big surprises here, just a classic “duel” on the West Coast. Play the “under.”
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