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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-27-22 | Bucs -3 v. Browns | Top | 17-23 | Loss | -118 | 19 h 22 m | Show |
The Buccaneers actually ran the ball consistently against the Seahawks and came away with a solid result, 161 yards rushing, a huge spike in their lousy time of possession stats, their best 3rd down conversion figures of the year, not to mention a victory. Let us hope that they spent the bye week refining their running game, taking some of the load off their aging QB. The Browns' defense struggles in most categories, including against the run, allowing 135 yards average in their L3 games and a very high 171 yards in Week 11. Add on 5.3 yards allowed per rush attempt in recent games. They haven't been much better against the pass, allowing a 111 average passer rating as well as 27 points against in their last 3 games. |
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11-26-22 | Air Force -125 v. San Diego State | Top | 13-3 | Win | 100 | 34 h 22 m | Show |
Just pride on the line here as neither team is heading to the Mountain West Championship Game and both are already bowl eligible. But Air Force will be motivated. Dating back to 2010, the Flyboys have lost nine straight times to San Diego State and are 2-7 ATS in those games. Most of the recent encounters have been close, however. Five of the last six have been decided by seven points or less. San Diego State’s offense has been reborn since a change at QB. However, Jalen Mayden has committed more turnover worthy plays than he has big time throws. Let’s also be honest. Those last two games, which saw the Aztecs score a combined 77 points, were against San Jose State and New Mexico. Over their past five games, the Air Force defense has allowed just 7, 19, 7, 3 and 12 points. That’s only 48 points total or less than 10.0 per game. On the offensive side, the triple option is the last thing San Diego State wants to see this late in the season, playing a sixth straight game with nothing on the line. Look for the AFA offense to control the ball in this one and the Falcons to end their long losing streak to SDSU. 8* |
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11-26-22 | Notre Dame v. USC UNDER 64.5 | Top | 27-38 | Loss | -107 | 33 h 16 m | Show |
Both Notre Dame and USC have gone Over the total in their last five games. But I will be bucking that trend here with my biggest CFB total of the season.
Notre Dame has something that USC hasn’t seen much of this season, that being a good defense. The Fighting Irish are top 30 in scoring, holding opponents to only 20.3 points/contests. Also, no opponent has been able to reach 400 total yards against them. Not even Ohio State. Unlike UCLA, ND has an elite secondary.
Notre Dame’s offense will also be able to control the football, thanks to the rushing attack. USC is very bad at stopping the run. One of the easiest ways to slow down the Trojans’ offense is to simply keep them off the field. I think the Fighting Irish will be able to do just that.
USC hasn’t beaten Notre Dame since 2016. In the last four meetings, they have been held to 16, 27, 17 and 14 points. As for the USC defense, Notre Dame does not have the kind of passing attack most teams in the Pac 12 do. The Trojans also excel at taking the ball away (#1 in FBS). Only two ND opponents have been able to score more than 26 points all season. The previous high O/U line this season for them was 58.5 vs. Ohio State. That game easily stayed Under. This is only the fifth ND game all year with a total higher than 48.5. Play the Under. 10* |
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11-26-22 | Coastal Carolina v. James Madison -14 | Top | 7-47 | Win | 100 | 26 h 49 m | Show |
Coastal Carolina is missing QB Grayson McCall and has the Sun Belt Championship on deck. So that is why the Chanticleers come in as two-touchdown underdogs at James Madison Saturday.
In its first season at the FBS level, JMU was not even eligible to win the Sun Belt nor go bowling. But that hasn’t stopped the Dukes from turning in a highly impressive 7-3 SU campaign and even earning a Top 25 ranking at one point. The only losses came to Louisville, Marshall and Georgia Southern, all in a row. QB Centeio missed the Marshall game due to injury and the offense turned it over five times while against Ga Southern, the Dukes had a 675-590 edge in total yards.
I fully expect JMU to treat this as their “bowl game.”
The Dukes’ defense is allowing just 82 rush yards per game and 2.6 yards per carry. They allow only 18.6 points/game at home. With a backup QB, Coastal Carolina is really going to struggle to move the ball here. The backup QB (Jarrett Guest) is a huge dropoff from McCall and attempted only 14 passes against Southern Miss. Even if McCall were playing Saturday, I’d have the home team favored by a decent amount. They will want to show everyone just who the best team in the Sun Belt “really” is. Lay the points. 10* |
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11-25-22 | Butler +1.5 v. NC State | Top | 61-76 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Butler and North Carolina State will wrap up the Battle 4 Atlantis Tournament Friday night with fifth place on the line.
Butler was crushed in its first game here, losing 71-45 to Tennessee (was close for a half). But the Bulldogs bounced back with a 75-70 win over BYU last night. NC State got a lucky cover in its first game here (thanks to a last-second three), an 80-74 loss to Kansas. The Wolfpack then surprised me a bit by defeating Dayton 76-64 as a three-point underdog last night.
Looking at NC State as a whole, they are overly reliant on three-pointers to score and weak on the interior defensively.
Even in the blowout loss to Tennessee, Butler did a good job defensively, allowing only 1.03 points/possession. The transfer portal has given Butler a key edge here. They now have Manny Bates, who chose to leave Raleigh. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see Bates be the difference tonight. 10* |
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11-25-22 | Florida +10 v. Florida State | Top | 38-45 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
Now seems like a good time to fade Florida State, who has won and covered four straight. But this 4-0 SU/ATS streak has come against Georgia Tech (terrible team), Miami (also terrible), Syracuse (sinking fast) and Louisiana (bad). This just seems like a big number to lay in a rivalry game, especially since Florida should come in angry after outgaining Vanderbilt 445-283 last week, but losing on the scoreboard 31-24. The Gators previous four losses had all been to ranked teams and only one (Georgia) was by more than 10 points. A mounting injury list is a tad bit worrisome for Billy Napier. It includes the Gators’ top two receivers. But I still say they stay within the number here. Look for a lot more designed runs for QB Anthony Richardson this week. Those were notably absent from last week’s playcalling, at least in the first half. By the way, Florida outgained Vandy 7.0 to 4.6 on a per play basis. The SEC is a much stronger league than the ACC obviously and that’s another reason why FSU probably shouldn’t be favored by this many. Feels like it’s the top of the market on them. FSU has not beaten Florida since 2017. The Gators are 4-0 ATS as underdogs this season, tied with Ole Miss for the best such mark among SEC schools. Equally as impressive is that UF has also covered each of its last three times off a SU loss. Take the points. 10* |
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11-25-22 | Hurricanes v. Bruins -149 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
The Bruins had their win streak snapped on the road last game, but they are back home with just 2 losses in their last 10 games, and have a sterling home record of 11-0. The Hurricanes have a streak of their own, having lost 4 straight since managing a win vs the Black Hawks. The Hurricanes can't put the puck in the net with any regularity; not at 5 on 5 (27th ranked) nor on the PP 930th ranked). The Bruins are best in the league both in goals scored and goals allowed, and 2nd and 3rd in special teams. They'll have Ullmark back in net on Saturday, who hasn't lost since Nov. 5th, and sports a .935 Save %. It will likely be Kochetkov for the 'Canes. He struggled in a losing effort against the lowly Coyotes in his last start. The Home team has a giant 7-0 edge when these two teams meet up. I can't think of a reason that the Bruins might lose, other than possibly too much turkey? Take the Bruins to start a new winning streak on Saturday. Boston to win. |
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11-25-22 | Tulane +1 v. Cincinnati | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 28 h 59 m | Show |
The winner of this game will finish first in the AAC and host next week’s Conference Championship Game (likely against UCF). This is a spot Cincinnati is pretty familiar with, Tulane not so much. But I expect the Green Wave to come in and get the job done Friday.
Both teams are 9-2 straight up. But from a pointspread perspective, it is clear who has been better. Tulane is 9-2 ATS while Cincinnati is 3-7 ATS.
The Bearcats do have a 32-game win streak here at historic Nippert Stadium that they can lean on. But they are nowhere close to the team that made the College Football Playoff a year ago. Prior to last week’s 23-3 win over hapless Temple, where the Bearcats were +4 in turnovers, they had gone six straight games without covering. That includes narrow wins over East Carolina, SMU and USF that were by a total of 10 points.
Two weeks ago, Tulane lost 38-31 at home to UCF. But that is the only blemish on the Green Wave’s resume over the last two months. They bounced back in a major way from that UCF loss, crushing SMU 59-24 last Thursday. This is a team that went to Kansas State and won back in September! Cincy QB Ben Bryant is dealing with a foot injury and may not be able to go here. That seems pretty significant. Even if Bryant can go, I still expect Tulane to win handily. The Green Wave struggled with a mobile QB (Plumlee) vs. UCF. Cincy doesn’t have that element. 10* |
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11-25-22 | Ecuador v. Netherlands OVER 2.25 | Top | 1-1 | Loss | -60 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
The Dutch took their time about it, but persevered to beat Senegal 2-0. Ecuador produced a similar result against an easier team in Quatar. Equador could be a bit of a sleeper in the group. They were 4th in South America and drew 1-1 against both Argentina and Brazil in the qualifying round. Equador has some fine young talent on the team, but got a pair of goals from 33 year old Valencia in Game One.The young Van Gaal coached Netherlands team, while inexperienced is rich in talent. Their top scoring threat, Memphis Depay played just 30 minutes but is expected to get more playing time in Game 2. By rights, Equator ought to be an easier match-up than Senegal, but those draws against top South American squads, and the number of goals that they scored in qualifying games should make the Dutch take note. I expect at least 1 goal at least from each squad, as both have significant offenses and neither the Dutch nor the Equadorians are gifted in goal keepers. Take the over, in this case, over 2.25. |
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11-24-22 | Mississippi State v. Ole Miss UNDER 62 | Top | 24-22 | Win | 100 | 7 h 14 m | Show |
Let’s go with the Under in the Egg Bowl. The number has come down, but I’m still seeing value north of 60 points. Eight of the last nine Egg Bowls, including the last five, have all stayed Under.
Those last five editions of this rivalry have all seen fewer than 60 combined points scored.
There’s disarray in Oxford right now with Lane Kiffin’s future seemingly in doubt. Maybe he stays? Maybe he goes? Regardless, Ole Miss is 1-3 its last four games and through three quarters last week had just six points on the board.
This Mississippi State offense can also run hot and cold. On the road, it’s been mostly the latter as they average just 19.5 points and all four games have gone Under. In a rivalry like this, there won’t be a ton of points scored. 10* |
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11-24-22 | Giants v. Cowboys -10 | Top | 20-28 | Loss | -108 | 16 h 26 m | Show |
The Giants, who have lost badly in 2 of 3 games, now face the home team Dallas Cowboys, hot off a huge blow-out of the Vikings. The Cowboys can dominate on offense and defense, but struggle against running backs and rushing QBs on defense. It is no secret; the Packers and Bears ran the ball with success, but it took Rodgers' best game of the season, and some explosive passing plays, to bounce back and win. The Giants have a strong running back in Barkley and Jones at QB is another rush option, but as far as the passing game goes, Jones is hardly Rodgers at his best. The Packers were top 10 in passer protection while the Giants are 27th in sacks. Jones is 28th is pass yards, 25th in Yds/completion, and had a QB rating in the 70's last week. Not to mention WR injury issues this week. Or that they are up against the league's top pass rushing team. |
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11-23-22 | Tennessee v. Butler +8 | Top | 71-45 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 46 m | Show |
The nightcap in the Battle 4 Atlantis features #22 Tennessee taking on Butler. Need I remind you that the Volunteers have already lost a game this year, a real stunner to Colorado. The final score there was 78-66, a game the Vols were supposed to win by 16 points.
Butler also has a loss, on the road to Penn State, but I think that the Bulldogs’ offense has looked great so far. They’ve put up 89 or more points three times for Thad Matta, who is back here after becoming the winningest coach in Ohio State history.
Matta has five double digit scorers right now and Butler is top five in the country in both eFG% and two-point FG%. I know that Tennessee is solid defensively (#3 in efficiency per KenPom), but the Bulldogs will find a way to score enough to cover this generous spread.
Tennessee is also turning the ball over more than you’d like to see. The team’s point guard from last season, Kennedy Chandler, is now in the NBA. The Vols will obviously look to shoot a high-volume of threes here, but the only made 27% against Colorado, notable because that’s the only time so far they’ve played away from Knoxville. In fact, Rick Barnes’ team is shooting just 37% overall from the field. I think the favorite struggles to score here and that leads to, at the very least, an ATS loss for UT. This is what I’d consider to be a “generous” number. 10* |
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11-23-22 | Bruins +104 v. Panthers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 46 m | Show |
The Panthers have lost 3 straight, including 2 at home, where they usually earn a very consistent W. Their recent goals-against numbers are alarming with 16 goals against in their last three games. This doesn't bode well for Wednesday's game as the visiting Bruins sport the best offense in the NHL, and have lit the red light 20 times in their last 4 games. Boston is also first in defense, and while the Lightning managed three goals in the Bruins' last game, the Bruins have allowed barely over a goal a game in their previous 7 matches. With 8 straight victories, the Bruins are giving the upstart Devils a run for effectiveness a the moment. The Bruins also lead the Panthers on special teams by a wide margin and have been very tough on the road. Florida is a shadow of the powerhouse of recent years to date this season. Look for the Bruins to continue on a heat wave in their brief trip to Florida. Take the Bruins to win on the road. Again. And remarkably, as an underdog, if you act quickly. |
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11-23-22 | Creighton v. Arizona -2 | Top | 79-81 | Push | 0 | 6 h 56 m | Show |
The Final of the Maui Invitational should be a good one as we’ve got two Top 15 teams set to do battle - #10 Creighton and #14 Arizona. Both teams remain undefeated with Creighton 6-0 and Arizona 5-0. But, if I can state the obvious, someone is heading for their first loss here.
Backing Creighton yesterday paid off for me as the Bluejays handed Arkansas its first loss of the season. As I said, that was a good matchup for Creighton as the Razorbacks are not particularly good at shooting threes and Creighton takes good care of the basketball.
It also helps that the Bluejays have shot the lights out thus far. They are making 52% of their field goal attempts thus far, which probably won’t continue. They shot 58.5% yesterday vs. Arkansas.
Arizona does a good job at defending the interior, which is where Creighton finds a lot of its offensive success. Creighton’s win was impressive yesterday and I certainly enjoyed it. But Arizona beating San Diego State by 17 was even more impressive. Talk about offense. The Wildcats scored 87 points yesterday and that was their lowest scoring game of the season! Three times they’ve hit 100! I’m laying the points. 10* |
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11-23-22 | Kansas -8.5 v. NC State | Top | 80-74 | Loss | -110 | 4 h 51 m | Show |
Two unbeaten 4-0 teams will tip off the Battle 4 Atlantis Wednesday afternoon, but there’s obviously a big gulf in class between #3 Kansas and unranked North Carolina State.
The big story here is that Bill Self will be on the Jayhawks’ bench for the first time this season, after serving a self-imposed four-game suspension. I think that, and the close call against Southern Utah (just a six-point win), will have KU properly motivated for this tournament contest.
Remember that Kansas already holds a win over Duke in the Champions Classic. Jalen Wilson is leading the team with 24.5 points/game and has set career highs in points each of the last two games, including 33 vs. Southern Utah.
This Battle 4 Atlantis tournament marks the first time NC State has left home this season. They are really diving into the deep end here after facing Austin Peay, Campbell, FIU and Elon all in the comfortable confines of Raleigh. The Wolfpack like to take a lot of threes, but so far Kansas has held its opponents to 25.5% from behind the arc. NC State, projected for a 10th place finish in the ACC this year, is going to struggle defensively in this matchup. Particular when it comes to preventing Kansas’ wings from driving to the hoop. Since the start of 2020-21, the Wolfpack have covered the number just one-third of the time (20-40 ATS) and are 12-26 ATS vs. winning teams. Lay it. 10* |
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11-23-22 | Japan v. Germany OVER 2.5 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 10 h 34 m | Show |
No 0-0 draws in this match! Both Germany and Japan went home with major disappointment after the last World Cup. It is more accurate to say that the Germans, normally a world power, were humiliated, resulting in a sea change in team makeup. Both Germany and Japan have young and potent squads this year, and both play an all-out attacking game. Japan is an underdog, but is a very well coached, organized, and driven squad. They waltzed through their preliminary matches, and with many team members playing at a club level in Germany, will be familiar with and not intimidated by the German style. The Germans also dominated their matches leading up to the Cup, but are very much offense focused, and not unknown to give up goals. This could be a very fast paced and exciting game with, I think, a higher than average total. Play on the over. 9*! |
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11-22-22 | Creighton +2 v. Arkansas | Top | 90-87 | Win | 100 | 11 h 8 m | Show |
Creighton and Arkansas are two teams coming off impressive wins Monday in Maui. The Bluejays beat Texas Tech 76-65 while the Razorbacks smoked hapless Louisville 80-54. These two teams are now a combined 9-0 straight up to start the year with Creighton at 5-0 and Arkansas 4-0. Only one can remain unbeaten after Tuesday, obviously. While Arkansas’ margin of victory was greater on Monday, I’d argue Creighton’s win was more impressive, given who they beat. This could also be the spot where not having five-star recruit Nick Smith Jr (listed as “day to day”) finally catches up with the Razorbacks. The biggest area of concern for Creighton is defending the three-point line. But fortunately for them, Arkansas does not make, or even take, a ton of threes. The Hogs are shooting just 30% from deep through four games and average only five makes per game. Where Arkansas thrives is forcing turnovers. But Creighton is well-suited to counteract that as they don’t turn it over much, ranking 13th in the country in TO rate. With four double digit scorers, Creighton is shooting the ball exceptionally well thus far. Look for them to prevail in this battle of Top 10 teams. 10* |
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11-22-22 | Nets -7.5 v. 76ers | Top | 106-115 | Loss | -115 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
This is all about which team is at full strength and which team isn’t. Brooklyn has Kyrie Irving back and looks ready to make a move in the Eastern Conference. Philadelphia won’t have Joel Embiid, James Harden or Tyrese Maxey tonight. That’s their three best players!
As a result, I’m laying the points with the Nets tonight. In Irving’s return Sunday, they shot 60% from the field. Ben Simmons even had 22 points (a season-high).
Irving had 14. Durant had 26, so he’s scored at least 25 in all 17 games this season. There’s just too many options here for Philly to slow down.
The Sixers have played 97 possessions this season without Embiid, Harden and Maxey on the floor. They’ve been dominated during that time, getting outscored by almost 16 points. Both the offensive and defensive numbers take a major hit. This game could get ugly in a hurry. It should be an easy double digit win for the visitors. 10* |
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11-22-22 | Ball State v. Miami-OH -3 | Top | 17-18 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Miami and Ball State are both looking to get bowl eligible tonight. Both are 5-6 and have struggled down the stretch. But Miami is off a win and (in my opinion) the team more likely to overcome a potential absence on Tuesday. Plus they are at home. Ball State lost RB Carson Steele to a concussion last week vs. Ohio. Steele leads the MAC in rushing yards (1376) and is ninth nationally. He has accounted for nearly one-third of Ball State’s total yardage this season. He’d be a huge absence for this offense. But even if he can go, Steele would be facing the MAC’s #1 rush defense. Miami won last week despite not having QB Brett Gabbert. Backup Aveon Smith accounted for three touchdowns (two rushing) against Northern Illinois and that was not the first time this season that the RedHawks prevailed with Smith under center. I’m far more confident in the Miami offense without Gabbert than I am Ball State without Steele I think that the Miami defense will be the difference in this one. Over the last eight games, the RedHawks have allowed 24 points or less seven times. The lone exception was against Ohio, the top team in the MAC right now. So lay the short number with the home team, who is 15-7 ATS its last 22 games in Oxford. 10* |
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11-22-22 | San Francisco -1 v. Wichita State | Top | 67-63 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
The Finals of the Hall of Fame Classic (played in Kansas City) go down Tuesday afternoon with 5-0 San Francisco taking on 3-1 Wichita State. Both teams won their semifinal games in impressive fashion yesterday. USF knocked off Northern Iowa 75-69 while Wichita State beat Grand Canyon 55-43.
We’ve already seen a change in favorite with the line moving in San Francisco’s direction. Considering the Dons failed to cover against Northern Iowa (were -7), that’s pretty interesting, but I also happen to agree with the line move.
The Dons like to play fast, much faster than Wichita State would like, and they take a lot of threes. They were 14 of 36 from behind the arc yesterday. The fact they were behind by 11 entering halftime may not sound all that encouraging, but the way they stormed back in the second half was. Also, while the Dons do love to shoot the three, you’ve got to expect they’ll make more than 11 two-point field goals in this game (that’s how many they made vs. N Iowa).
Wichita State is rightly earning praise following wins over Richmond and Grand Canyon, but let’s not forget this team also lost - as a 16-point favorite - at home to Alcorn State. I just don’t see the Shockers (57, 56, 55 points L3 games) scoring enough to stick with San Francisco this afternoon. Teams are shooting just 22% from three against Wichita State this season. There’s simply no way that can continue. San Francisco is the ideal team to send the Shockers’ 3-point defense into negative regression. Look out for Khalil Shabazz, who had 24 points yesterday for the Dons. 10* |
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11-21-22 | Ohio State v. San Diego State -4.5 | Top | 77-88 | Win | 100 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
We head to Maui for our third and final College Hoops selection for the night. San Diego State is a favorite here over Ohio State and I expect the Aztecs to cover the number here. San Diego State is a team that I’ve played before. The last time the Aztecs took the court, I laid a similar number (on the road) to Stanford and they easily came out ahead, 74-62. The Aztecs are outstanding defensively as they were a year ago. Last year they ended up #2 in the country at KenPom in defensive efficiency. So far this season, they are eighth. In terms of experience, SDSU has the edge here with four of last year’s five starters returning. They also added a key piece via the transfer portal with Darrion Trammell, who had averaged 19.5 points the first two games before going 0 for 5 from the field against Stanford. I’d expect a bounce back from Trammell tonight. Ohio State had to hit the transfer portal hard after losing the likes of E.J. Liddell and Malakai Branham. Holden, Likekele and McNeil have all proven that they can be key contributors, but the relatively young Buckeyes have yet to face an opponent that’s this challenging defensively. Lay the points. 10* |
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11-21-22 | 49ers -7.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 21 h 33 m | Show |
Coming into MNF It is now the Cardinals who have injury issues, with key players out, and Hopkins and Murray both questionable with hamstring problems. McCoy filled in well last week, but the Cardinals face one of the leagues' top defenses in the 49ers. Even after their win last week, Arizona is giving up 27 points on average in their last three games. That 49er defense is hard to play against in all categories. Nobody runs successfully against them and with the Cardinals running less and less in recent games, SF can key on the Arizona pass attack, which has not been particularly dynamic this year, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. In spite of the Cardinals' short pass game, Murray/McCoy have been sacked at close to 4 times a game in recent action, a situation made worse this week by San Francisco's third-ranked (not third rate) passer pressure rating. |
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11-21-22 | 49ers v. Cardinals UNDER 43 | Top | 38-10 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
The 49ers are in Mexico City at a a point in the season where all systems are go. They are healthier, have a dominant run attack, and very tough pass offense lately. They face a Cardinals team who have grown one dimensional on offense, and with possible injuries to key players this week. The Cardinals don't run the ball much, relying on a very short yardage pass attack. While they beat the Rams last week, their passing game hasn't been especially successful this season, just 18th in yards, and last in yds/attempt and yds/completion. I expect the 49ers to key on the Arizona passing game, and rough up who ever plays at QB. The SF defense is tough in all categories, and the 49ers' offense are very strong in holding on to the football with very good time of possession and third down conversion stats. The 49ers don't normally put up huge point totals, but will be very successful at limiting the Cardinals' chances today. Take this game to go under. |
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11-21-22 | Northern Kentucky v. Florida Gulf Coast UNDER 133.5 | Top | 61-82 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 32 m | Show |
This is the Gulf Coast Showcase, a tournament that takes place in Estero, FL, which is just about 10 minutes from Florida Gulf Coast’s campus. The Eagles face a Northern Kentucky team that is tricky defensively and this should lead to a pretty low-scoring game on Monday night. Northern Kentucky likes to play a matchup zone, which is difficult to break down and often leads to long possessions and bad shots by the opponent. FGCU is already not a particularly great shooting team (37.6 FG% in three games away from home), so they’re likely to struggle offensively in this one. Few teams in the country play slower than Northern Kentucky. The Norse are 341st (out of 363 D-I teams) in pace. Again, that’s conducive to an Under play. NKU is coming off a 64-51 win over Cincinnati. That was a game the Norse came in as 6.5-point underdogs. They held the Bearcats to 33.9% shooting. FGCU could only manage 50 points against Tennessee in its last game, which it lost by 31 (they were 20.5-point underdogs). I just don’t see any way both teams score more than 65 points in this one and neither should “go off” either. 10* |
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11-21-22 | Bruins -105 v. Lightning | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 7 m | Show |
The Boston Bruins are an absolute powerhouse this year. Winners of 6 straight, and 9 of their last 10 games, they have allowed just 7 goals in their last 6 wins while scoring 24. They are also getting lights-out goaltending from Ullmark, while sporting the top rated offense and defense in the league. |
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11-21-22 | Georgia Tech v. Utah -4.5 | Top | 64-68 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 16 m | Show |
Utah takes on Georgia Tech here as part of the Fort Myers Tipoff. These teams are in the event’s “Beach Division.” Every team from the “Beach Division” was successful in games vs. teams from the “Palms Division” with one exception, that being Utah, who lost 65-55 to Sam Houston State as a 10-point favorite. As a result of that embarrassing defeat, expect the Utes to come out motivated tonight. First off, SHSU had previously beaten Oklahoma before beating the Utes. The other big takeaway from that game is how SHSU, a team that was making only 50% of its free throws, went 12 of 14 from the line against Utah. Utah is usually pretty sound defensively. They’re allowing a FG% of just 34.0 and 53.7 points/game. I don’t think it will be very difficult to guard a Georgia Tech team that is only averaging five made three-pointers per game thus far. The Yellow Jackets are 3-0 following an 18-point win over Northern Illinois last week. But this is easily their toughest test yet and being so limited offensively, I expect the underdog to struggle. One of the tallest teams in the entire country, look for Utah to dominate the boards in this matchup. We’re getting a cheap price on the Utes because of the previous result. Take advantage. 10* |
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11-20-22 | Cowboys v. Vikings OVER 48.5 | Top | 40-3 | Loss | -110 | 28 h 56 m | Show |
The Cowboys are on the road again, this time in a show-down with a red-hot Vikings team. A pass-first team, the Vikings have a very successful rush offense considering they only run the ball a third of the time. Add some great targets for Cousins, Jefferson being the standout, and you have a formidable offense. The Cowboys have allowed 28 and 29 points in their last two weeks and 26 against the Eagles earlier. They have been done in by their inability to handle the run, but their passer rating has climbed to 114/L3 games, in spite of leading the league in passer pressures. The Vikings have a fine running back in Cook, who overachieves considering his usage. I expect the Vikings, like the Packers, to run far more than usual on Sunday. |
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11-20-22 | Bengals -3.5 v. Steelers | Top | 37-30 | Win | 100 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
The Steelers are off a win, have TJ Watt back, and are playing at home, but face a very tough Bengals team this week. Joe Burrow is the 2nd best quarterback in the game, and has only improved lately, completing 77 % of his passes in his last three games, with a passer rating of 117. The Bengals’ O-line has improved this season. Burrows was sacked just twice in his last game, and the Bengals’ sacked % is lower than Sunday’s opposition’s numbers. Burrow seems impervious to sacks anyway and in spite of the hits he has taken, he doesn’t turn over the ball very often. Joe Mixon ran for huge yards in his last game, but the Bengals are usually very much a pass-first offense, a big advantage vs the Steelers’ defense. Pittsburgh shut down the Saints’ running game and are 6th in rush yards allowed, but they are not as tough against the pass. They are thirtieth for the season, though improving, in pass yards allowed and have managed only to hold QBs to a to- healthy 99 passer rating in their last three games. The Bengals defense is reasonably balanced, underrated and improving in many areas lately including rush yards allowed and rush yards/attempt. They have a very good pass defense in spite of low passer pressure figures and are solid in takeaways. Let’s not forget who they are facing this week. Harris had a solid game on the ground and Picket ran for 50+ yards and managed not to throw a pick, but we are talking a 73 passer rating over the last three weeks and a 31st points-scored ranking this season. As good as he is, TJ Watt won’t be playing on the Steelers’ offense. Take the Bengals to win and cover. |
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11-20-22 | Virginia v. Illinois -1 | Top | 70-61 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 52 m | Show |
This is the Final of the Continental Tire Main Event in Las Vegas. #16 Virginia upset #5 Baylor to get here while #19 Illinois rallied back to beat #8 UCLA. Whoever wins this thing is going to have a nice mark on their resume.
I like Illinois to win. Here’s the thing. Virginia just can’t possibly hope to shoot the ball as well here as they did vs. Baylor.
The Cavaliers made 55.6% of their overall field goal attempts on Friday and were 9 of 14 from downtown. They also attempted 35 free throws and made 27.
Illinois, I believe, has the edge here both on the inside and from behind the arc. Terrance Shannon Jr, a transfer from Texas Tech, is the player to watch. He scored 29 points against UCLA and was 8 of 9 from three. Virginia has been uncharacteristically bad at defending the three-point line so far. They rank outside the top 300 in 3pt% allowed. Illinois scored 51 pts in the second half vs. UCLA after going for 103 against Monmouth and 86.5 PPG in the two contests before that. 10* |
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11-20-22 | Commanders -3 v. Texans | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 61 h 49 m | Show |
The Commanders, on a short week after a massive victory against the Eagles, now face a struggling Texans team at home. Washington’s defense has taken a step forward lately and is very strong vs. the run. Their pass defense is still their weakness but they face Mills this week, who has struggled in his 2nd year. The Texans’ pass defense had been their strong point, but has struggled lately, allowing a passer rating of 119 over their last 3 weeks. |
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11-19-22 | UNLV -11 v. Hawaii | Top | 25-31 | Loss | -105 | 28 h 33 m | Show |
UNLV is 4-6. That means they must win their last two games to go bowling for the first time since 2013. Facing Hawaii here and then hosting Nevada next week, the odds are in the Rebels’ favor. But can they cover a double digit spread on the road? I say “yes!”
Doug Brumfield is back at QB for UNLV. This is key. The team is 4-1 when he got hurt on 10/7 vs. San Jose State. They haven’t won since (five straight losses). But they are 2-0 ATS since Brumfield returned, losing a pair of one possession games to San Diego State and Fresno State.
Now it took a late FG for the Rebels to cover last week. They’ll hope to avoid being on the wrong side of such a scenario here. I think they’re fine. Hawaii, even against a weak schedule, is just 2-9 and losing by an average of 17 points/game.
Defensively, Hawaii is atrocious, whether you’re taking against the run or the pass. Brumfield and this UNLV offense should have its way. Despite the perception of there being some sort of advantage on the island, Hawaii has the second worst home ATS record in the country over the last decade. This game means nothing to the Warriors, who have lost four straight and given up 96 points the last two weeks. |
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11-19-22 | Golden Knights -110 v. Oilers | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 34 m | Show |
The Golden Knights are making up for lost time after last year’s painful injury-ridden season. They are healthier, and playing on the road certainly isn’t slowing them down. Vegas is 8-1 in their last 9 road games. The Knights have the fifth rated offense and third ranked defense. It is a very balanced attack, with a solid and deep defense, plus excellent goal tending from Thompson, Saturday’s likely starter. One concern on Saturday will be their PK. The Knights’ penalty kill is only average, but up against a very fine Oilers’ PP. Other than the power play, the Oilers have underwhelmed this year. They are 4-6 at home, and just over .500 for the season. The issues have been familiar ones; secondary scoring, goal-tending, and a leaky defense. They are getting some solid goal tending from an unlikely source. Skinner has been super sharp in his last two starts, and good more often than not this season, although his play has not necessarily translated into wins. The Oilers just lost Evander Kane to injury, throwing even more of the load onto the top two. Draisaitl and McDavid are dominant performers, but can be limited by top defense like the Canes and Knights. After those two, the Oilers are very much easier to play against. I like Vegas’s chances on Saturday. The Knights are balanced and deep this year, outscoring the Oilers in spite of D and McD. It may be close but look for another road victory for the Golden Knights. |
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11-19-22 | Wolves +1.5 v. 76ers | Top | 112-109 | Win | 100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
We all understand that this is the end of a four-game road trip for Minnesota, who can now say they have won back to back games for the first time in November.
Normally, the end of a trip like this can be a bad spot. But that’s not really the case tonight for the Timberwolves, who have had the last two days off. They also had two days off prior to beating Orlando 126-108 Weds night.
The opposition played last night, and for Philadelphia it was a hard-fought win here at home vs. Milwaukee. But the Sixers didn’t come out unscathed. Already missing James Harden from the lineup, they saw Tyrese Maxey go down with a foot injury on Friday.
So even though this will be their fourth straight game at home and Minnesota’s fourth straight road game, the situation is MUCH worse here for Philly. The T’wolves have posted a 127.5 offensive efficiency rating in the last two games, shooting 54% overall and 40% from three. They are in much better shape than the Sixers heading into Saturday. 10* |
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11-19-22 | Ohio State v. Maryland +27.5 | Top | 43-30 | Win | 100 | 20 h 21 m | Show |
This is a lookahead spot for Ohio State, who is laying four touchdowns with Michigan on deck. I know it’s hard to take a Maryland team you know won’t win, but I make this spread a full field goal lower. The reason this spread is so large is because Maryland has really struggled the last two weeks, losing 23-10 to Wisconsin and 30-0 to Penn State. It’s now five straight ATS losses for the Terrapins and QB Tagovailoa hasn’t looked right. But I’m willing to bet Tagovailoa and the Maryland offense can make enough plays this week to stay within a very generous number. The QB had been having a good season. His completion percentage is still at 68.3% with 2152 yards. Over the last 12 years, Ohio State has covered only twice the week before facing Michigan. The Buckeyes also just really haven’t faced anyone this season. Their two toughest games, Notre Dame and Penn State, saw them down at halftime. Not saying Maryland will ever be out in front in this game, but they’ll stay close enough. 10* |
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11-19-22 | Connecticut v. Army -10 | Top | 17-34 | Win | 100 | 18 h 33 m | Show |
So here’s a pointspread for you. Army, who is 3-6, is laying two scores to a 6-5 UConn team that has covered seven in a row. If that doesn’t set off “alarm bells” in your head, not much will. This is a classic letdown spot for a UConn team - that against all odds - is now bowl eligible. That’s something NO ONE expected at the start of the season. The Huskies just stunned a ranked Liberty team 36-33 as a two touchdown home dog for their biggest win in YEARS. I can’t see them coming out with the same intensity for this regular season finale. Army has scored only 16 points the last two weeks while losing to Air Force and Troy. But on the bright side, the defense surrendered only 23 total points in those two games. The Cadets have allowed 17 or less three of the last four games. If you’re worried about laying points, look back to the last time that Army was favored. That was four weeks ago against LA Monroe here in West Point. They won 48-24. UConn was -166 in total yards last week and has gotten two wins against backup QBs this season. The other two wins were against UMass (worst FBS team) and Central Connecticut State (FCS team). Trust me - you’re going to want to LAY the points here. 10* |
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11-18-22 | South Florida +14 v. Tulsa | Top | 42-48 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
These are two of the bottom feeders in the AAC. In fact, USF is at the very bottom with an 0-6 record in conference play and 1-9 overall. Last week, they made a coaching change, firing Jeff Scott after a pretty awful run. I thought the Bulls had a somewhat inspired effort for interim Daniel Da Prato against SMU even though they didn’t cover the spread.
They would have covered if not for going for two (down 18). The Bulls are now 3-7 ATS, which is not good, but that’s the same record Tulsa has at the betting window. And USF obviously isn’t the team laying two touchdowns here.
USF was tied with SMU at the half 17-17 last Saturday. Like I said earlier, that’s encouraging as a coaching change typically leads to a short-term spark. The thing with Tulsa is that I don’t see where any spark comes from. They can’t get bowl eligible. They are 1-4 ATS as a favorite in 2022.
The Golden Hurricane have not gotten much going offensively the last two games. Part of that is an injury to QB Davis Brin, who returned only to leave again last week. The Tulsa offense couldn’t even gain 200 yards against Memphis. This is a hold your nose situation, but I just don’t think Tulsa should be laying this many points to ANYBODY at this point of the season. The Golden Hurricane are 0-5 ATS their last five games with four double digit losses. 8* |
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11-18-22 | Celtics v. Pelicans OVER 229.5 | Top | 117-109 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
The Celtics have been winning a lot recently. Eight straight to be exact and over the course of that win streak, they’ve been scoring a ton. Six times they’ve scored 123 or more and this should be another strong offensive showing tonight in the Big Easy.
A career-best 31.1 points/game from Jayson Tatum is pacing the Celtics, who have been favored in every game this season. They are also #1 in the league in points/game at 120.4. Jaylen Brown is also averaging a career-high 25.4 points/game.
The only negative with this Cetics team right now is that their defensive rating has slipped from 1st last season to 16th this season. Robert Williams III being injured has a large hand in that.
New Orleans can score too. The Pelicans just put up 124 in a win over Chicago Wednesday night. They are averaging 116.7 points/game. It remains to be seen if Zion Williamson will play tonight, but even if he doesn’t, you’ve still got Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum to carry the scoring load. The Pelicans aren’t great defensively though as they are allowing 112.1 points/game and that’s not good facing this red-hot Boston team. Expect a high-scoring game in this one. 10* |
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11-18-22 | Indiana -2.5 v. Xavier | Top | 81-79 | Loss | -110 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Lots of neutral site tournament action in Friday College Hoops, but here we’ve got Indiana traveling to Xavier for a true road game as part of the Gavitt Games. I think the Hoosiers are - by far - the better team here and will cover the spread without much trouble.
Morehead State and Bethune-Cookman are hardly what I’d call “high-caliber” opposition, but those first two IU opponents didn’t stand a chance, losing 35 and 52 respectively. The Hoosiers have shot almost 60% from the field so far and Mike Woodson has a deep team here.
Many believe Woodson’s team is going to win the Big 10 this year and I’m not going to disagree with that assessment, especially with what we’re also seeing at the defensive end (allowing just .664 points/possession).
Sean Miller is back at Xavier for a second stint. But I’m not really high on this Musketeers team despite starting the year with three double digit wins (over Morgan State, Montana and Fairfield). There’s no way they will continue to shoot 45.5% from three. First-team All Big East selection Colby Jones sat out against Fairfield due to an ankle injury suffered in practice. They didn’t need him in the last game, but Jones would be a significant loss going against a team like Indiana. 10* |
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11-18-22 | Buffalo v. Drake -12.5 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 5 m | Show |
I’m expecting this first game in the U.S. Virgin Islands Paradise Jam to be a blowout. All signs point the favorite (Drake) winning very big.
About the only positive thing I can say about Buffalo right now is they are playing fast. The Bulls are listed at #1 in adjusted tempo over at KenPom. However, being that they are so inexperienced, the fast pace has led to a lot of turnovers and poor defense. Through three games, UB is 313th in turnovers while allowing 58% shooting from inside the arc (311th) and they are sending opponents to the free throw line at a very high rate as well.
The result is a 1-2 start with nearly 90 points/game allowed. After beating Colgate by a single point, the Bulls have lost by 35 to James Madison (at home) and by 20 to UConn.
Drake is a team that can take advantage of Buffalo’s deficiencies. The Bulldogs should have beaten Wofford by more than they did on Monday. They won by only eight because Wofford made six more threes. It was a pretty woeful 5 of 24 for Drake from behind the arc. But they shot 68% on two-point attempts. Remember what I said earlier about Buffalo’s poor interior defense. Drake doesn’t turn the ball over much either. They’ve scored 80 points against two teams that like to play slow. Here, against a sloppy, inexperienced team, the Bulldogs should put a ton of points on the board and cover the number rather easily. 10* |
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11-17-22 | Titans +3 v. Packers | Top | 27-17 | Win | 100 | 30 h 55 m | Show |
We could see a couple of run-first offenses when the Packers meet the Titans on TNF, based on the Packers’ success against the Cowboys. Henry and the Titans are formidable on the ground, and while Henry was limited against the Broncos last week, he’ll have and easier time rushing against the Packers’ sub-par run defense this week. That may not be the case for the Packers’ fine RB duo, Dillon and Jones. The Titans have one of the league’s top run defenses and are very tough in 3rd down conversions. We’ve seen a general improvement in the Titans’ defense lately; even the pass defense has improved, limiting opposing passers to a 74 rating in the last three weeks. The Titans QB pressure stats are among the best in the league, with 103 pressures, 29 sacks and 40 knock-downs. They are tough in points allowed, 3rd down conversions, and take-aways as well, making for a difficult evening for Rodgers on Thursday. The Packers defense, as mentioned, is weak against the run, but tough for the season, though regressing lately, in the air. Their passer pressure stats are below average, but are up against a Titans O-line that has struggled to protect Tannehill, last week being the exception. Rodgers had his best game of the season last week, but one game does not a season make. He and the Packers’ offense has struggled with picks and fumbles this season. The Packers successfully exploited the Cowboys’ poor run defense last week. Rogers actually threw less than average, although more successfully. He is still banged up with an injured thumb on his throwing hand. I like Henry to bounce back with a big game on a chilly Thursday night. Tannehill is also off his best game of the season, and is an underestimated offense manager. Take the visiting team Titans to cover, although a win would not surprise me. |
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11-17-22 | Islanders v. Predators UNDER 6 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
The 8-2 Islanders travel to Nashville to meet the Preds who have won 2 straight at home, allowing just a pair of goals total. They only scored 4, and that has been the way of their offense this year. They are 30th in the league in goals scored and PP performance, while the defense has been average. The difference in the last two game is that Saros, who has played to mixed reviews this season, has found his usual form, with a save % of over .970 in those games. |
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11-17-22 | SMU v. Tulane -3.5 | Top | 24-59 | Win | 100 | 11 h 34 m | Show |
This is a big game for Tulane. Not only is it their home finale, being played in front of a national TV audience no less, but the Green Wave are off a tough 38-31 loss here to UCF last week. To get a shot at revenge (at UCF) and a place in the AAC Champ Game, Tulane is going to have to win the last two games. I like their chances tonight and will be laying the short number.
Revenge must also be considered when handicapping this matchup. Tulane has lost to SMU seven straight times, but four of the last six losses have been by four points or less. It was a blowout in the Metroplex last season, but that was a much worse Tulane team (that finished 2-10 SU).
This is Willie Fritz’s best team yet, one that is ranked in the Top 25 of the CFP Rankings. It was an unusually poor defensive effort that cost the Green Wave last week, not to mention falling behind 10-0 just four minutes into the game did not help. I expect a better effort on the defensive side of the ball here, from a group that is still only allowing 18.7 points/game at home. I think this Tulane defense can also limit explosive plays from Tanner Mordecai and the SMU offense.
SMU has won three in a row straight up and covered the number in four straight. But two of those three SU wins came against the bottom-feeders of the AAC (Tulsa, USF). The Mustangs’ defense is a liability coming into this matchup as it has given up 32.6 points/game for the season and 40.0 the L3 weeks. Even with the loss last week, Tulane has an excellent home record under Fritz, including 4-1 SU/ATS in finales. Overall, they are 26-10 ATS L36 home games. Two road games in six days is not a great spot for SMU, who was tied at the half last week vs. USF. 10* |
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11-17-22 | Nebraska v. St. John's OVER 158 | Top | 50-70 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
This figures to be a fast-paced, up-tempo game with a ton of scoring from both teams. St. John’s has played very fast in its first three games, all of which have gone Over. Led by some key transfers, the Red Storm are currently playing at the sixth fastest tempo in the country per KenPom.
Nebraska isn’t playing quite as fast, but the Cornhuskers are 69th in tempo. They have shot 55% from inside the three-point arc in two games, which were wins over Maine and Omaha. They averaged 77 points/game.
Tonight is a clear step up in competition for the ‘Huskers. I do worry about them defensively in this matchup. They allowed those first two opponents to shoot 37% from three-point range and I don’t see them having much of an answer for St. John’s big man Joel Soriano, especially if Derrick Walker remains out.
St. John’s has shot almost 55 percent from the field in their first three games and 41% from three. But they too have defensive issues as more than 40% of the points they allow are coming from behind the arc. The Red Storm going Over the total is not new. They are 24-8 Over the last 32 times they’ve been favored. 10* |
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11-16-22 | Warriors +2 v. Suns | Top | 119-130 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 34 m | Show |
Golden State is just 6-8 to start the year, but they showed signs of life on Monday when they blew out San Antonio at home by a score of 132-95. I like them here on the road against a banged up Suns team. Count on the Warriors taking this one seriously. It’s a chance to beat their main division rival and the team that has had the best record in the Western Conference over the last two years. This is also a huge revenge spot as the Warriors were blown out by 29 points when they faced the Suns earlier this year. Phoenix has dropped two in a row coming into tonight, first to Orlando (114-97) and then to Miami (113-112). Overall, they are 2-4 L6 games. Two starters have been out - Chris Paul and Cam Johnson. Only Paul (questionable) has a chance of seeing the floor tonight. The defense has really fallen off a cliff with those two out and while Paul’s replacement Cam Payne did look good in a couple of the games, he went 4 of 17 against the Heat. Golden State’s starting five has looked excellent of late and Steph Curry should be ready to go after playing a season-low 27 minutes against the Spurs. All signs point to this being a “statement game” for the Warriors. 10* |
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11-16-22 | Bulls +3.5 v. Pelicans | Top | 110-124 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
This is a revenge game for Chicago. They lost 115-111 at home to New Orleans exactly one week ago. That result was followed by another loss for the Bulls as they went down 126-103 at the hands of Denver on Sunday. The team has now dropped four of its last five. But this time the Bulls catch the Pelicans in the second game of a back to back. New Orleans was kind to me last night with a 113-102 win over Memphis. I laid the short price as the Grizzlies were without one of their two best players (Desmond Bane). That was obviously a wise decision. The Pelicans didn’t even need Zion Williamson to win last night. He sat, but six teammates finished in double figures led by 30 points from CJ McCollum (who I predicted would have a big game). As a team, NO went 18 of 38 from three-point range. I don’t see the Pelicans shooting as well tonight, even if Williamson returns, as they went just 3 of 19 on three-pointers the last game vs. Chicago. That previous meeting was closely contested with 14 lead changes and nine ties. Now, Chicago is better rested (just two games in last seven days) while New Orleans played last night. A big problem for the Pelicans has been interior defense, so that’s an area the Bulls need to attack here. 10* Chicago |
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11-16-22 | Blues v. Blackhawks UNDER 6 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
We've got the league's two worst offenses facing off today when the Blues meet the home team Black Hawks. St. Louis's defense has been no great shakes either, but they did limit Vegas and the Avs to two goals each in their latest games. Chicago's defense has been above average to date. Blues net minder Binnington bounced back with a couple of fine .940+ save % games in his latest appearances. Soderblom has opened some eyes in Chicago allowing just 2.6 goals a game. It is no surprise that the rebuilding Black Hawks haven't been able to sustain their fine start. They have struggled to score lately with 6 straight unders to show for it. The Blues have been a mixed bag, but Binnington is capable of being a game changer, and the Blues seem to be more defensibly responsible in their last three games. Take today's game to go under again. |
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11-16-22 | Eastern Michigan v. Kent State UNDER 60.5 | Top | 31-24 | Win | 100 | 8 h 24 m | Show |
Eastern Michigan got bowl eligible with a 34-28 win against Akron last Tuesday. So from here on out, the Eagles are simply trying to move up the bowl pecking order. They can’t win the MAC West (Toledo has already clinched). Meanwhile, going into last week, Kent State knew that it had to win out to get bowl eligible. Well, “step one” was accomplished as the Golden Flashes went to Bowling Green and prevailed 40-6 as 2.5-point chalk. I had the Under in that game, which cashed. Going the same route again here The Under is 7-3 in all of Kent State’s games this season. Since Oct 1, only one has seen more than 60 combined points scored and that at Toledo. While the Flashes are not where they want to be in the standings, they do have a defense that is very good at holding opponents to field goals (top 20 in red zone efficiency). The Eastern Michigan defense tackles well and does not give up a ton of big plays. Since October 1st, the Eagles have allowed more than 28 points only one time and that was a strange game vs. Northern Illinois. Each of the previous three seasons these teams met and the Under has gone 3-0. None of the three games saw more than 60 combined points scored. 8* |
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11-15-22 | San Diego State -4.5 v. Stanford | Top | 74-62 | Win | 100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
A “mid-major” laying points on the road against a Power 5 Conference team speaks volumes and in the case of San Diego State-Stanford, the number is more than justified. SDSU is no “ordinary” mid-major. They’ve made back to back NCAA Tournament appearances and are the preseason favorite to win the Mountain West. Meanwhile, Stanford has yet to appear in the Big Dance since Jerod Haase came to Palo Alto in 2016. San Diego State is excellent defensively. They ranked 2nd in efficiency in the KenPom rankings a year ago and have allowed the ninth fewest points per 100 possessions to start this season. The Aztecs held Cal State Fullerton to 57 points and BYU to 75. Stanford figures to have all sorts of trouble scoring tonight. The Cardinal are shooting just 23.7% from three thus far and were just held to 50 points by Wisconsin on Friday. They are 0-2 ATS on the year, having also failed to cover the season opener vs. Pacific. A real encouraging sign for San Diego State to start the season is that they’ve scored 80 points in both games. That’s something they did only once all of last season. Stanford let Pacific score 78. Back to the San Diego State defense - they have been outstanding at forcing turnovers. CS Fullerton and BYU coughed it up a combined 38 times. Not only has Stanford turned it over a total of 34 times so far, but they had one of the worst turnover rates in the country last year. This is a terrible matchup for the home side. Lay the points. 10* San Diego State |
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11-15-22 | Chattanooga v. Ole Miss OVER 139 | Top | 58-70 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 40 m | Show |
Chattanooga lost its season opener at Charleston 75-68, but that loss certainly doesn’t look so bad now after Charleston gave #1 North Carolina a game. Chattanooga also quickly bounced back with a 93-49 win over Oakland City last Thursday.
Ole Miss is a not surprising 2-0 as they’ve defeated Alcorn State 73-58 and Florida Atlantic 80-67. The Rebels came out more aggressive in the second game and ended up shooting 50% overall and 40% from three against FAU.
There was a defensive lapse in that FAU game as Ole Miss let a 17-point second half lead dwindle down to six. But give the Rebels’ credit for then immediately bouncing back with a 12-5 run of their own. This team is getting outstanding production from its bench so far. Rebels’ reserves have combined to score 69 points in the two games.
Ole Miss will be tested defensively here as Chattanooga likes to push pace a lot more than either Alcorn State or FAU. But the flip side of that is the Rebels should see more scoring opportunities. This is likely to be their highest scoring game yet, so that means more than 80 points from them. Therefore, we won’t need a ton from Chattanooga to send this game Over the total. Being that the Mocs have averaged 85.5 points the first two games, they should give us more than enough. 10* |
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11-15-22 | Grizzlies v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 102-113 | Win | 100 | 6 h 54 m | Show |
Memphis is 9-5 with five wins in their last seven games. But they did lose on Sunday, 102-92 at Washington, without Ja Morant and Desmond Bane. That loss was also the Grizzlies’ lowest scoring game of this season. They are now 0-3 this year when either Morant or Bane does not suit up.
Morant is off the injured list and Jaren Jackson Jr seems set to make his season debut tonight. But Bane being out 2-3 weeks is a significant loss considering he’s the team’s top three-point shooter.
The Grizzlies have a pretty mediocre net efficiency rating. I think it’s fair to say that - so far - their schedule has not been all that daunting.
New Orleans is 7-6 and coming off a 119-106 win over Houston on Saturday. They’ll be home now through Thanksgiving, so they need to take advantage. So far the Pelicans are just 3-2 in home games. I understand Memphis’ optimism with JJJ and Morant returning. But New Orleans has the better point differential and net efficiency rating this season. Even if Zion Williamson doesn’t play, the Pelicans have enough depth to pull this one out. In particular, look for CJ McCollum, long overdue to get hot, to have a big game. The Grizzlies let Washington hit 19 threes on Sunday. Lay the short number here. 10* |
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11-15-22 | Bowling Green v. Toledo UNDER 50.5 | Top | 42-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 34 m | Show |
The I-75 Trophy is on the line tonight at the Glass Bowl where Toledo hosts rival Bowling Green. Toledo has already wrapped up the MAC West, so these last two games don’t mean much to them. Bowling Green still needs one more win to become bowl eligible. Based on the recent history of this rivalry, BG is unlikely to get its sixth win tonight. They’ve lost 11 of the last 12 meetings vs. Toledo including 49-17 last season. The one win over the Rockets came in 2019, at home, as 26.5-point underdogs. Oddsmakers aren’t giving the Falcons much of a shot tonight either with a spread of more than two touchdowns. Bowling Green’s offense has been very poor of late. Four of the last six games have seen them held to 17 points or less. Last week was a disaster as they got blown out 40-6 at home by Kent State. I cashed the Under in that game as well. Toledo was a 28-21 winner last week against Ball State, another game where I cashed in. I had Ball State plus the points. The Rockets are actually 0-3 ATS L3 games and have scored just 27, 27 and 28 points. Assuming the Toledo offense doesn’t go “wild” tonight, this game should easily stay Under the number. The BG defense had been pretty good prior to last week. The 40 pts allowed to Kent State matched the number allowed the previous three games combined (18, 13, 9). The Falcons are also among the nation’s leaders in sacks. But the BG offense still stinks and Toledo is allowing only 15.8 PPG at home. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-14-22 | Commanders v. Eagles -10.5 | Top | 32-21 | Loss | -110 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
The Commanders were in tough against the Vikings last week and won their three previous games but they are on the road against a team that is consistently good in just about every area on Monday. Not to mention healthier and better rested. The Eagles run defense is their weak point, and the Commanders do have their 2 player run attack performing well, but the Commanders don't put up many rush points. The Commanders' pass attack is very pedestrian, and will face a pass defense that is formidable in takeaways, passer rating, sacks, etc, etc. I really don't see the Commanders scoring a ton of points on Monday. Wentz is probably very lucky to be out of this one. |
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11-14-22 | Wofford v. Drake -10 | Top | 72-80 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
This is a tough spot for Wofford. After losing 91-80 at High Point, a game they were favored to win, this is the second road game in three days for the Terriers. I don’t like their chances.
Meanwhile, Drake has played only once - last Wednesday - and they easily defeated IUPUI by a score of 80-48.
For Wofford, the best player from last season is back. B.J. Mack led the team in points, rebounds, assists, steals and blocks in 2021-22. Mack has averaged 18 points in the first two games this year. The problem is that he doesn’t have much returning help. After Mack, last year’s top seven scorers all departed. They’ve been replaced by JUCOs and six freshmen.
Against High Point, the Terriers never really stood a chance. They were down 17 at halftime and just couldn’t get enough stops in the second half. Unlike tonight’s opponent, Drake is an experienced team. Five players started at least 13 games on last year’s 25-win squad, making them the logical favorite to win the Missouri Valley Conference in 2022-23. The Bulldogs are a very deserved double digit favorite in this game and should have no problem covering the spread. 10* |
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11-14-22 | Oral Roberts v. Houston UNDER 144.5 | Top | 45-83 | Win | 100 | 9 h 21 m | Show |
Houston hosts Oral Roberts Monday night. The third-ranked Cougars have played twice thus far and as you’d expect, based on the opponents, won big both times. It was a 47-point win over Northern Colorado followed by a 26-point win over St. Joe’s. The latter was played at a neutral court (Annapolis).
In their season opener, Oral Roberts had a tough time early on with what looks like a very good St. Mary’s team. The Eagles were down big at the half before rallying late to get inside the number. Their second game was a 95-62 win over John Brown, a non-board team.
The key to handicapping this matchup is that Houston is going to try and slow ORU down. Oral Roberts would like to play fast, but that is easier said than done against this tough Cougars’ squad.
Houston has been gifting opposing teams too many free throw attempts thus far, so that’s probably going to be a point of emphasis for coach Kelvin Sampson. As long as the issue does not persist, Oral Roberts just isn’t going to score very many points here. Houston is 4th in adjusted defensive efficiency and 343th in tempo. This is a higher total than what we saw for Oral Roberts-St. Mary’s and it should not be. Take the Under. 10* |
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11-13-22 | Cowboys -5 v. Packers | Top | 28-31 | Loss | -108 | 78 h 35 m | Show |
The Cowboys come into their road game with the Packers healthy, rested and on a two game win streak, none of which can be said of the Packers. On offense, they have seen a huge improvement since the return of Prescott, plus games against a couple of lesser lights. One of those 'lesser lights' just beat up on Green Bay last week. There is almost no area where the Packers can match the Cowboys offense over their last three games. Prescott has bounced back from injury well, and the run game has taken off in recent weeks. |
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11-13-22 | Broncos v. Titans -2.5 | Top | 10-17 | Win | 100 | 43 h 53 m | Show |
The Broncos managed 21 points in their last game and are off a bye in week 9 but they face a tough run-crazy Titans squad just minutes away from beating the Chiefs last week. The Broncos offense has been a disappointment but the defense has been spot-on this year. They are tough to score on and defend well in the red zone, but are best against the pass, which is definitely secondary in the Titans' plans. Note that the Broncos also lost their top pass rusher, traded away at the deadline. The Broncos can be run on, at 21st and 27th in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt, but they are not as easy to score rush points on. Both of these teams' defenses are about equally hard on passers,while neither team is particularly good at protecting their own QB. |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants UNDER 41 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
The Giants will be running fools on Sunday at home to the Texans, partly because that is what their offense does best. The Barkley/ Jones duo leads the Giants to 4th best in the league in rushing yards. It is also what the Texans' defense does worst. They are 32nd in rush yards allowed and 30th in yards per attempt among other unflattering stats. The Texans will also run. Their rookie RB Pierce was terrific in his last game a huge bounce-back from week 8, but he is a beaten up this week. The Texans pass game has struggled this season; 26th in passing yards, 27th in yards/completion and an 80 passer rating for the season. Mills throws to may picks compared to touchdowns. Both teams are solid in passer pressures, esp the Texans. |
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11-13-22 | Texans v. Giants -4 | Top | 16-24 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
It will be Barkley vs Pierce, two very good RBs looking to lead a pair of run-first offenses when the Texans take on the Giants in New York. Pierce is banged up, but likely to play and off a very impressive rebound game against the Eagles. Barkley is healthy and well rested after a bye week, and playing against the worst run defense in the league. The Texans are 32nd in rush yards allowed and very poor in all other categories, and of course, teams routinely run against them most of the time. In this case it will Barkley and QB Jones, a terrific one-two punch, 4th in the league in rushing yards. How will Pierce fare? The Giants rush defense give up plenty of yards, but not points. The New York defense overall is very good in the red zone, and in limiting 3rd down conversions. The pass defense is average in yards, and limits passers to an 82 rating lately. The Giants blitz a lot, but it is the Texans who are the more successful pressure-ers. Opposing passers have looked good lately with a 108 rating in the last 3 Texans' games. |
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11-12-22 | Texas A&M v. Auburn -1 | Top | 10-13 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show |
These two SEC programs are in very different places right now. Auburn just made a coaching change and certainly seems to be reinvigorated by interim boss Carnell “Cadillac” Williams. Texas A&M was supposed to contend for a national title this year. They are now 3-6 and look to be playing out the string. Now Auburn shares that same 3-6 record. But they showed me something by coming back from an early three touchdown deficit to force overtime last Saturday in Starkville. Keep in mind Williams was on a short week and wasn’t even named coach until Monday. It’s amazing his team got to overtime against a team like Mississippi State. The Tigers can put up points. They’ve averaged more than 31 the L3 games. Texas A&M can’t do anything offensively. They’ve been better recently, but have used three different quarterbacks and have yet to score more than 28 points in any game. The A&M roster is severely depleted right now due to injuries and suspensions. This is the program’s first five-game losing streak since 1980. I am just not sure how much they care. Auburn is also on a five-game slide, but Williams seems to have them reinvigorated and being at home this week, it’s looking like “War Eagle.” Auburn has covered seven of the last eight times they’ve been home chalk of 3.5 points or less. 10* |
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11-12-22 | Penguins v. Canadiens +130 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 130 | 18 h 25 m | Show |
The Penguins have won their last two games after a lengthy losing streak, but are on the wrong end a back to back, a situation they have not thrived in recently and in the long term. They are also struggling on the road to date in the season. Jarry likely starts, and after a very good start to the season, has not shown well lately, with an average save % of well under .900 . DeSmith played in both recent victories. Underdogs and home teams have the advantage in recent meetings between these two teams, and the Canadiens are both on Saturday. Although they can be up and down, they have a better record than the Penguins, and have also won 2 straight. They are considerably better on defense and on the PK this year. Allen, the likely starter on Saturday has a .907 save %, and was very strong against the Sabres in his last game. The Penguins are a surprisingly high road favorite on Saturday, and I am not sure that that line is justified. Take the underdog Habs to come through at home. |
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11-12-22 | Mike Trizano v. Seung Woo Choi -165 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -165 | 11 h 43 m | Show |
Can’t say that either fighter has been all that successful as of late, but I like Choi to win this bout on the UFC 281 prelims.
It was just over a year ago that Choi was on a three-fight win streak and seemed to be ascending in the Featherweight Division. Losses to Alex Caceres and Joshua Culibao have halted the momentum, but Choi looks to get back on track here against Trizano, who has also dropped two in a row.
Trizano did win The Ultimate Fighter back in 2018, but since then has never been able to get on a run like Choi did. He was knocked out by Lucas Almeida in June and now hopes to avoid a fourth loss in his last five fights.
Choi is the harder hitter here and should be able to avoid takedowns. His takedown defense has improved the last couple of years. He will enjoy a three-inch reach advantage over his opponent on Saturday. Most concerning of all with Trizano is that he missed weight for this fight (by 1.6 pounds), which certainly calls durability into question. That’s why I’m stepping in here. 10* |
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11-12-22 | North Texas v. UAB -5.5 | Top | 21-41 | Win | 100 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
Ok. So UAB didn’t work out last week. But now QB Dylan Hopkins is set to return and I love the Blazers in this spot hosting North Texas.
With North Texas on a 6-0 ATS win streak, they have become overvalued. Conversely, UAB is on a 0-4 ATS losing skid and is approaching peak value. Before last week’s 2OT loss to UTSA, the Blazers were 11-0 ATS at home off a loss.
UAB had the 553-494 edge in total yards vs. UTSA. The return of Hopkins just makes the offense even more dynamic.
With LSU on deck, UAB MUST win this game to have a shot at bowl eligibility. North Texas already has its six wins, most of them coming against bad teams. Key here will be UAB’s ability to run the ball. On the road, North Texas is giving up 214 rush yards per game and 5.1 yards per carry. 10* |
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11-12-22 | Arsenal v. Wolverhampton Wanderers UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 115 | 18 h 58 m | Show |
Wolves have scored just 8 goals in 14 Premier League matches this season. That’s not just the fewest of any EPL side, it’s downright putrid.
Now they are set to face top of the table Arsenal, who have conceded all of 11 times this season. That’s tied for the best defensive record in the league.
Wolves have been a bit stingy themselves on the back end going back to last season and that should serve them well in this fixture. It also helps that Arsenal’s road xG is way down from what they average at Emirates Stadium. My prediction here is that Arsenal gets 1, maybe 2 goals at most. Wolves are likely not to score at all and thus Under 2.5 is a solid play in the final match on Saturday’s EPL slate. |
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11-12-22 | Notre Dame v. Navy +17 | Top | 35-32 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
Coming off a giant win over Clemson, this looks to be a classic letdown spot for Notre Dame, who is back in the CFP Top 25. While the Fighting Irish are 9-1 SU the L10 games vs. Navy, they are just 5-5 ATS.
A service academy getting this many points is typically an attractive option as they will look to control the clock and thus it’s difficult for the favorite to build any kind of margin. The numbers bear this out as Army, Navy & Air Force are a combined 40-22-2 ATS when getting 14 or more points from the oddsmakers. Furthermore, the total for this game is only 42. So getting more than two touchdowns feels like a real nice luxury to have.
Yes, the Irish did just beat Clemson by three touchdowns. But as a double digit favorite, Marcus Freeman’s team is 0-4 ATS with outright losses to both Marshall and Stanford. They also failed to cover against UNLV and Cal.
By a variety of metrics, Navy’s defense is pretty strong against the run. Those metrics include yards per rush, line yards and stuff rate. Conversely, ND’s defense is a lot weaker against the run than the pass. We know what Navy will look to do on offense here.
Notre Dame will almost certainly win this game. But look for it to be closer than the experts think. 10* |
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11-11-22 | Sharks v. Stars OVER 6 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 12 m | Show |
The Stars, winners of 3 of 4 games, are back home and facing a struggling 3-12 Sharks team. The offense has been clicking; Dallas averaged 6 goals-for a game in those three wins before a poor performance against a tough Jets team at the tail end of the road trip. The Sharks have had no recent luck (0-6) against the Stars in Dallas and are just 2-4 on the road this season. San Jose has scored over three goals a game in their last 6 appearances, an improvement over the early season. The problem is that they have allowed well over 4 goals a game, resulting in 5 straight losses. They are on the tail end of a back-to-back tonight. We've seen a steady diet of overs from the Sharks, and while the offense has improved, managing to keep the Sharks in games lately, the defense has not. The Sharks face a very potent Stars offense and power play tonight. The suggested total is about average; too low for this match up. Jump on the over in this game. |
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11-11-22 | East Carolina +5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 25-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
East Carolina will come into historic Nippert Stadium (where Cincinnati has won 31 straight) on a three-game win streak and off a bye. Last time out they snapped a four-game Friday night losing streak with a 27-24 upset of BYU. It was the Pirates’ second straight win as a dog, having previously upended UCF 34-13 as a six-point home dog.
Now ECU looks for its first win at Cincy since 2001. They’ve lost 10 of 11 overall to the Bearcats including four straight. It was a 35-13 final last year in Greenville. But that was of course to a Cincinnati team that went on to become the first “Group of Five” team to ever make the College Football Playoff.
This year has seen the Bearcats have real problems covering the spread. They are just 1-5-1 ATS the last seven games after failing to cover Saturday vs. Navy. They came in as 18.5-point favorites but won just 20-10.
The Bearcats’ three games prior to that were all decided by four points or less. One of those saw them favored by 27 at home vs. a terrible South Florida team. Due to being one of the most penalized teams in the country, it’s been very difficult for Cincy to win by any kind of margin this year. At this point of the season, I simply believe that East Carolina is the better football team here. They are certainly more than capable of ending Cincy’s long home win streak. QB Holton Ahlers has completed over 70 percent of his pass attempts for 2,632 yards. |
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11-11-22 | Nuggets v. Celtics UNDER 230.5 | Top | 112-131 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
Denver and Boston collide Friday night on NBA TV and both squads are coming off high-scoring victories Wednesday night. Denver won 122-119 in Indiana while Boston prevailed 128-112 here at home over Detroit.
Because of those final scores, tonight’s O/U opened quite high. It’s already been bet down, but I’m still liking the Under here.
Boston has been lighting up some bad teams of late. Chicago, New York and Detroit were three of the victims in the current four-game win streak. But when the Celtics faced Memphis on Monday, they finished the game with just 109 points.
Denver, also on a four-game winning run, has also been running through bad teams. They’ve faced Oklahoma City, San Antonio twice and then of course Indiana. In a more high-profile encounter, expect more defense from both teams. The Under has hit in six of the last seven meetings between these teams and the last four here in Beantown. 10* |
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11-11-22 | Kansas State -6 v. California | Top | 63-54 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
Kansas State figures to struggle when the Big 12 portion of the schedule begins, so it is imperative that the Wildcats perform well against non-conference opponents. Tonight’s game vs. Cal typifies the concept of “must win” and I believe they will - by a comfortable margin.
There are nine newcomers on the roster this year in Manhattan. Yet the season opener vs. UTRGV could not have gone any better. Now KSU was expected to win big as 22-point favorites. But they ended up delivering a 34-point victory, which was a very encouraging sign.
On the other hand, Cal’s season did not get off to a rousing start. As a six-point favorite here in Berkeley, they lost outright to UC Davis as a six-point favorite. Over the game’s final 9:30, the Bears made only one field goal.
Cal is not exactly expected to light it up this year as they were picked to finish second to last in the Pac 12. Six players finished in double figures for K-State in the opener. Cal shot just 38.1% as a team in its first game. I know it’s a small sample size, but the road team is a justifiable favorite in this one and should roll. 10* |
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11-10-22 | Falcons -3 v. Panthers | Top | 15-25 | Loss | -104 | 32 h 14 m | Show |
It could be very much a run-centric game when the Falcons meet the Panthers on Thursday. The Falcons run more than just about anyone, and now have Patterson back, plus an up-and-comer in Allgeier, plus Huntley, and not to mention Mariota. Rain and wind are in the forecast, and the Panthers have a poor 28th rated rush defense. |
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11-10-22 | Central Michigan v. Marquette -17.5 | Top | 73-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
While Marquette won its first game against Radford by only 10 points, I’m expecting a blowout tonight. The Golden Eagles were up 21 on Radford before a five-minute scoring drought helped close the gap and make the final score closer than it should have been.
This is the first game of the season for Central Michigan. The Chippewas are off their worst season in many years as they finished 7-23 overall. They were competitive in the MAC, losing by an average of only six points per game, but struggled against non-conference foes, going 1-10 losing by 18 points/game.
Need I remind you that Marquette is NOT a MAC team?
The Golden Eagles were solid defensively in the opener, limiting Radford to 20% shooting from three. The problem was they shot just 26% from three themselves and also turned it over 18 times. But I expect a more solid game from start to finish from Shaka Smart’s team tonight. They had four double digit scorers vs. Radford. CMU lost a lot from last season’s roster and figures to really struggle in the early going. Four of the top five scorers and rebounders from last year departed. A team that turned it over on nearly 20% of its possessions in 2021-22 figures to not fare well against a Smart-coached team. 10* |
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11-10-22 | 76ers v. Hawks UNDER 223 | Top | 95-104 | Win | 100 | 9 h 28 m | Show |
Philadelphia comes into this game at just 5-6 on the season, but they did just hold Phoenix to 88 points in a win Monday night. I had the Under in that game and that’s the play again here as the 76ers travel to Atlanta to face the 7-4 Hawks.
Now the Hawks’ game last night was rather high scoring as they fell 125-119 to the Jazz. They came in sporting the league’s top three-point FG% defense (32.5%) but sat back and watched Utah make 17 of 39. I don’t think that will be the case again here, however.
I say that knowing full well that the 76ers are shooting 39.2% from three this season. But remember that James Harden is now out for the next month. Even with Joel Embiid back, the team scored only 100 points Monday. They’ve been playing at a much slower pace recently as well.
The 76ers are elite defensively though, at least with Embiid on the floor. The loss of Harden certainly doesn’t hurt at that end of the floor. I just think this number is too high. Ten of the last 13 meetings between the teams have stayed Under including seven straight. 8* |
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11-10-22 | Georgia Southern +3.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 17-36 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
It has been a disappointing season for Louisiana, who was 13-1 in 2021. It’s not like a dropoff wasn’t expected. Billy Napier hightailed it for Florida and they had to replace their QB and four starters along the offensive line. But a 4-5 SU record through nine games is certainly NOT what the Ragin Cajuns were expecting.
Meanwhile, Georgia Southern has already exceeded last year’s win total (3) and now has its eyes on bowl eligibility for first year head coach Clay Helton. There has been a radical transformation on offense with Helton jettisoning the triple option for an “Air Raid” and the result has been 36.2 points/game.
Both teams are coming off losses, though Louisiana is in worse shape having dropped five of seven overall. Georgia Southern looked to have South Alabama beat (were up 21-7 in the first quarter) but gave up two touchdowns in the fourth to lose 38-31. They only trailed for the final 5:50 of the game.
Louisiana also fell apart late in last week’s loss, getting outscored 16-0 by Troy in the fourth quarter to lose 23-17. So we’ve got two teams off disappointing losses, but Georgia Southern is clearly more enthusiastic about where it’s at right now. I’m taking the points here as I think the Louisiana defense is going to struggle at slowing down the Eagles’ offense. Except for one game vs. Arkansas State, the Ragin Cajuns have not gone over 24 points since September. Take the points. 10* |
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11-10-22 | Flames v. Bruins -155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 57 m | Show |
The Flames started out strongly this season but have now lost 6 straight. They are on the road against a Bruins team that has only lost 2 games this season, and is top of the heap in the Atlantic Division. Thursday's starting goalie Ullmark is a sparkling 9-1, .932 save %, outplaying a disappointing Markstrom, who is allowing nearly three goals a game and with a sub-.900 save %. The Flames are not the powerhouse of last year. Their top line has been completely revamped and is not clicking. They have a barely average offense, and a sub-par defense. The Bruins by comparison are best in goals scored (4.1 per game), third in defense (2.4 goals allowed), and with a huge edge in special teams. There are even sightings of a healthy McAvoy. |
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11-09-22 | Suns v. Wolves UNDER 223 | Top | 129-117 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
Phoenix and Minnesota met on November 1st. That game stayed Under the total, ending up 116-107. We’ve got a slightly lower number for the rematch. But again, the Under is the way to go.
Starting with Minnesota, the last four Suns’ games have all stayed Under. I had the Under when they lost 100-88 at Philadelphia on Monday.
The Suns are playing great defense. They rank third in points allowed. They are also bottom four in pace. So they are playing slow as well. Great defense + playing slow = a solid combo to cash Unders.
Minnesota’s starting five has really struggled when on the court together. The Under is 8-3 in all Timberwolves games. Injuries are piling up for Phoenix: Cameron Johnson is out while Chris Paul and DeAndre Ayton are both questionable after leaving Monday’s game. Take the Under. |
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11-09-22 | Monmouth v. Seton Hall UNDER 135.5 | Top | 52-79 | Win | 100 | 9 h 24 m | Show |
On Saturday Seton Hall will face St. Peters, which is where head coach Shaheen Holloway previously served. But first they’ll play Monmouth, who was also in the MAAC - until this year.
The Hawks have moved to the Colonial for 2022-23. They make the transition to a new conference having lost all five starters from last season’s team. No transfers were brought in to soften the blow. There are some recruits. But expect a slow start to the season from Monmouth. Monmouth is 19-8 Under its last 27 road games.
Seton Hall is 28-12 the last 40 times it has been favored. Seton Hall also likes to play slow, which lends itself to the Under. The Pirates were also a great defensive team last season, ranking Top 25 nationally in efficiency. 10* |
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11-09-22 | Penguins -120 v. Capitals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
The Capitals are home against the faltering Penguins, but haven't exactly been burning up the score sheets either, scoring less than 2 goals a game and winning just twice in their last 7 games. After an embarrassing loss to the Coyotes, they rallied vs the Oilers on Monday. Kuemper, likely in net against the Penguins, has been steady lately other than a painful third period in the loss vs Phoenix. |
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11-09-22 | Buffalo v. Central Michigan -1 | Top | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Buffalo had a five game win streak (SU and ATS) snapped last week in Athens as they fell to Ohio 45-24 as a 2.5-point road favorite. While it was a nice run, the Bulls are a team that has had some good luck go their way, whether you’re opposing quarterbacks being out or turnovers.
Central Michigan picked up a much needed win last week, beating Northern Illinois 35-22 as a 4.5-point road underdog. The Chippewas still have a chance to go bowling, but that would require winning out. They must get better at protecting the football though. Each of the last two games have seen CMU turn it over four times.
I believe the home team will be able to control the trenches in this game. RB Lew Nicholls III returned last week but it was actually backup QB Jase Bauer that led the way with 109 yards rushing. On the defensive side, CMU has been one of the best teams at stopping the run. Buffalo’s defense is 89th nationally in yards allowed.
Not only did Central Michigan’s offensive line pave the way for 245 rushing yards last week against Northern Illinois, but they also did not give up a single sack. CMU is 5-0 ATS the last five times it has been off a game with 200-plus yards rushing. Buffalo is 1-7-1 ATS off its previous nine SU losses. 10* |
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11-09-22 | Kent State v. Bowling Green UNDER 56 | Top | 40-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
Bowling Green’s win over Western Michigan was not high-scoring to say the least. The Falcons won 13-9, the latest in a string of impressive defensive performances. The last three games have seen BGSU allow just 13, 18 and 9 points.
Kent State’s offense has been disappointing this year. They are putting only 20.0 points/game on the road (where they are 0-5). Injuries continue to play a role. The Golden Flashes’ top two receivers are both banged up right now. Dante Cephas did not play against Ball State last week and Devontez Walker left due to an injury. It is unknown if either will play tonight.
Now the Bowling Green offense isn’t exactly firing on all cylinders either. In three of their last four games, they have not topped 17 points. The game where they scored 34 on Central Michigan, the Falcons forced four turnovers and returned a fumble for a touchdown.
Only one of Kent State’s last six games has gone Over. That was against Toledo, who put up 52 points on them. Bowling Green is not Toledo. The Under is now 11-4 in Bowling Green’s last 15 games. 10* |
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11-08-22 | Ball State +11.5 v. Toledo | Top | 21-28 | Win | 100 | 10 h 5 m | Show |
The last two games for Toledo have seen wild comebacks, one go their way and one not go their way. Three Saturdays ago, they were up 27-10 on Buffalo heading into the fourth quarter. They ended up losing that game 34-27 due to six turnovers. The following week, with a backup QB, they came from behind to defeat Eastern Michigan 27-24. There is uncertainty over who is going to be the starting QB for the Rockets tonight. Dequan Finn, who got injured at the end of the Buffalo game and is in the running for MAC Offensive Player of the Year, is questionable. Backup Tucker Gleason threw three touchdowns last week vs. EMU. Regardless of who is playing quarterback, Toledo is clearly capable of putting points on the board. But tonight they run into a Ball State defense that has held four straight opponents to 21 points or fewer. The Cardinals picked up a huge 27-20 win last Tuesday at Kent State as seven-point underdogs. That sets this game up as likely to decide who represents the MAC West in the Conference Championship. Ball State is 3-2 in conference play, one game behind Toledo, who is rightly considered the class of the conference. But I think this spread is too high given the uncertainty at QB. Even if Finn does return, there has to be some concern over how effective he can be. The area where I expect Ball State to be effective on offense is running the ball. If you remove a game vs. Central Michigan, this Toledo defense has poor numbers against the run. Four opponents have run for 200+ yards on them, including the likes of UMass and San Diego State. The Cardinals are also much better than the Rockets when it comes to not turning the football over. You’re going to want to take the points in this edition of Tuesday night MAC-tion. 9* |
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11-08-22 | Montana +4 v. Duquesne | Top | 63-91 | Loss | -108 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
This number has already been bet down, but there’s still value with underdog Montana. The Grizzlies experienced a terrible finish to last season, losing 8 of their last 11 games. Before that, they were 15-6 overall and 8-2 vs. the rest of the Big Sky Conference. I believe this team is going to be on a mission to start the season and it helps that last year’s leading scorer Josh Bannan (15.1 points/game) is back. There were a couple of key transfers brought into Missoula as well. The most notable being Dischon Thomas from Colorado State. After going 6-24 with 17 straight losses last season, Duquesne head coach Keith Dambrot decided to clean house and he’s basically got a whole new roster coming into the year. Four of the top six scorers from last year are gone as are 7 of the 10 players that averaged at least nine minutes per game. One of the key new pieces, Tevin Brewer, is out due to an appendectomy. Montana was very effective from the free throw line last season, ranking 11th nationally in FT percentage. They also were top 35 in fewest turnover rate. Duquesne was bottom 20 in the country in home field goal shooting percentage and bottom 10 in three-point shooting percentage allowed. Take the points here. 10* |
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11-07-22 | Raptors v. Bulls -3.5 | Top | 97-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 32 m | Show |
These teams just met Sunday and the Raptors came out on top 113-104. That was in Toronto though and Fred VanVleet was a monster, going for 30 points and 11 assists. Zach LaVine sat out yesterday for Chicago as his usage is being managed due to offseason knee surgery. The expectation is that he’ll play tonight. Also, you’ve got to expect more from DeMar DeRozan than what he gave the Bulls Sunday. Yes, DeRozan shot 7 for 9, but that was a season-low in field goal attempts. Tonight the Bulls get to play host and they’ve won three of four here in the Windy City. All three victories have been by a minimum of 15 points. Toronto is without leading scorer Pascal Siakam and there’s no way VanVleet is going to be as productive as he was on Sunday. Another key takeaway from last night’s game is that Chicago turned it over 17 times, leading to 23 Toronto points. No way they are that careless again. I expect a Bulls’ bounce back at home where they are 4-0 straight up and against the spread the last four times hosting the Raptors. 8* |
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11-07-22 | Ravens -1.5 v. Saints | Top | 27-13 | Win | 100 | 10 h 31 m | Show |
The Ravens and Jackson face the Saints and Dalton under the lights on Monday Night Football. Not a lot separates these two teams in stats, although the Ravens have faced much stiffer defenses. The Ravens' addition of Roquan Smith also adds a solid component to their defense. The Saints completely shut down the hapless Raiders last week but the same team gave up 42 points to the Cardinals the week before. |
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11-07-22 | Memphis -2.5 v. Vanderbilt | Top | 76-67 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
This is one of the “juicier” matchups on Opening Night of the College Basketball season as two teams coached by former NBA All-Stars collide.
Memphis went 22-11 last season, including 13-5 in the American Conference, and made the NCAA Tournament. In the Big Dance, Anfernee Hardaway’s team gave Gonzaga a real scare in the second round as they had a 10-point lead at halftime. Eventually though, the Tigers would lose by four points.
Vanderbilt went just 19-17 last season and they were 7-11 in the SEC for Jerry Stackhouse. Notably, the Commodores were just 1-7 when up against a ranked team. Memphis may not be ranked heading into 2022-23, but they are certainly the better team in this matchup.
Kendric Davis is a key transfer for Memphis, coming over from conference rival SMU. Davis joins holdovers Alex Lomax and DeAndre Williams for what should be a formidable scoring trio. The Tigers have nine seniors on the roster, so it’s a veteran team and I look for them to attack Vandy inside in this matchup. Vanderbilt lost their best player from last year, Scottie Pippen Jr, to the NBA. I think they’re going to struggle to score here against what should be one of the best defensive teams in the entire country. Furthermore, not only should Memphis have success attacking Vandy down low, but they should have a big night from three. Defending the arc was a major problem for the Commodores last season. 10* |
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11-07-22 | Suns v. 76ers UNDER 215.5 | Top | 88-100 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
At 7-2, Phoenix has been one of the best teams in the league to start the season. Both losses came against Portland, but the Suns just avenged those on Saturday by beating the Blazers 102-82. Offensively, the Suns have been very good so far as they are averaging 115.1 points/game. But they are now missing Cam Johnson and possibly Cameron Payne (questionable for tonight) as well. The team’s scoring already dips away from home (111.5 points/game), but fortunately they are also third in the league in defense. Philadelphia is easier to defend right now as James Harden is out for a month and Joel Embiid is questionable for tonight with an illness. Without those two, the Sixers only managed 104 points in a loss to the Knicks on Friday. Even if Embiid returns, the Sixers have struggled mightily on the offensive end all season. They are 23rd in the league in points/game (109.8). They haven’t shot all that poorly, but are bottom third in pace and that clearly plays a role in why they aren’t scoring all that much. The Sixers have been exceptional at defending the three-point line here at home. The previous five visitors to the City of Brotherly Love have shot just 30.9% from three. 10* |
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11-06-22 | Seahawks +2 v. Cardinals | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 20 h 48 m | Show |
The Seahawks meet the Cardinals at home off three straight victories, one of them against the Cardinals. The Seahawks have a much improved defense since the start of the season. There is now no defensive category that Seattle doesn't lead the Cardinals in the last three games, against roughly similar competition. The Cardinals' defense is struggling against the run which plays to Seattle's fine young running back Walker III. Arizona has also allowed a 93 average passer rating compared to 76 for the Seahawks in their last three games. |
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11-06-22 | Dolphins -4 v. Bears | Top | 35-32 | Loss | -110 | 38 h 34 m | Show |
Facing the Bears at home, the Dolphins successfully propped up a couple of areas in need of improvement, pass defense and run offense. The Bears brought in a quality receiver, but moved their top two defensive players out. We saw some of the effect last week as the Chicago defense absolutely plummeted in effectiveness. They allowed double their season's average points against total, and their vaunted pass defense fell apart, allowing a third more yards. Against a healthy and fired up Tua-lead Dolphins pass attack, this is not good news. |
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11-06-22 | Packers -3.5 v. Lions | Top | 9-15 | Loss | -110 | 2 h 25 m | Show |
The Lions' offense bounced back against the Dolphins last week but went absolutely nowhere in previous weeks against the Cowboys and Patriots. The Packers have a solid pass defense, 2nd in pass yards allowed, which will go some way to limiting Detroit's options. Green Bay is also strong in red zone defense, and have limited 3rd down conversions. They have an average passer rating of 79 in their last three weeks. The Lions also just shipped out their talented tight end at the deadline. |
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11-05-22 | Wake Forest v. NC State +3 | Top | 21-30 | Win | 100 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
Wake Forest and NC State are both Top 25 teams that come into Saturday sporting identical 6-2 straight up records. But at the betting window, it’s been a different story for these ACC rivals. Wake Forest is 6-2 ATS while NC State is 2-6 ATS.
Two Thursdays ago, NC State found itself down 21-3 at home to sorry Virginia Tech. But thanks to a QB change, the Wolfpack rallied for the 22-21 win. MJ Morris was the spark, coming in and throwing for three touchdowns. Morris completed 69% of his passes for 265 yards in the second half alone vs. Va Tech. With Devin Leary out for the season, NC State looks to have found its answer at QB1.
Wake Forest is coming off an awful 48-21 loss at Louisville where they turned the ball over eight times, including six in the third quarter alone. The Demon Deacons’ only previous loss was in double overtime to Clemson, but I am skeptical of this team. The offense remains one-dimensional (can’t run the ball) and I believe that the NC State defense can slow down QB Sam Hartman.
NC State should not be an underdog in this game. They have won 15 straight at home, which is the sixth-longest home win streak in the nation currently. Wake Forest hasn’t won here in Raleigh since 2018. The Wolfpack are undervalued right now due to a five-game ATS losing skid and not having Leary. But Morris looks to be the real deal and you should take the points here. 10* |
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11-05-22 | Phillies v. Astros -140 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 30 h 33 m | Show |
Game Six features a rematch of Game Two starters, Wheeler and Valdez. Wheeler was lights out early in the postseason, but struggled against the Astros in his last start, experiencing a much remarked-on loss of velocity. He was not as good on the road in the regular season, and was hit very hard by Houston’s big three batters last time out. |
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11-05-22 | Tennessee v. Georgia -8 | Top | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 17 h 6 m | Show |
Tennessee is the definition of a “public underdog” this week. I will look to take advantage of that perception and fade the undefeated Volunteers in this spot as they visit fellow unbeaten, and reigning national champion, Georgia.
We all know that Tennessee’s offense has been great in 2022. But when they faced Georgia last year, things did not go so well. QB Hendon Hooker averaged just 6.6 yards per attempt (he’s averaging 10.6 YPA this season, for a frame of reference) and the Vols lost 41-17.
Georgia did lose a great deal of production to the NFL, but they remain quite strong on the defensive side of the ball. They are fourth nationally in success rate and fifth in EPA. Opposing offenses average only 4.6 yards per play against them.
Look for Kirby Smart and the Georgia coaching staff to slow the tempo of this game way down. The Bulldogs are already bottom 25 in the country in tempo. They will look to play “keep away” from the Tennessee offense. The last time a top-two team was an underdog of at least eight points was Notre Dame in the 2020 ACC Championship Game. The Fighting Irish lost by 24 to Clemson. Georgia makes a statement here. 8* |
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11-05-22 | Central Florida v. Memphis +3.5 | Top | 35-28 | Loss | -115 | 18 h 3 m | Show |
UCF has definitely had Memphis’ number through the years, winning 14 of the 16 all-time matchups. But the last time the Golden Knights paid a visit to the Liberty Bowl, which was 2020, they lost an insane 50-49 game. For Memphis, that ended a 13-game losing streak to UCF!
UCF won last year at “The Bounce House” 24-7 as a two-point dog. They come into this year’s meeting off a thrilling 25-21 win over Cincinnati, ending their own long losing streak to the Bearcats. But that win came with a cost. Starter John Rhys Plumleee was knocked out of that game with a concussion. Backup Mikey Keene may have engineered a game-winning drive, but he’s a pretty clear downgrade from Plumlee.
Even though they have lost three in a row, this is a great spot to take the points with Memphis, who is coming off a bye. Two of those three losses were by a total of three points, one of them a four overtime game. The other was a blown lead late against Houston that involved an onside kick. There probably is also no shame in losing by 10 at Tulane, who is #19 in the initial CFP rankings.
Tigers QB Seth Henigan has a 15-5 TD-INT ratio and has played well this season. No matter who ends up playing QB for UCF here, give me the points. Memphis is a perfect 6-0 ATS as a dog going back to 2017. 10* |
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11-05-22 | UTSA v. UAB +1 | Top | 44-38 | Loss | -110 | 18 h 18 m | Show |
UAB and UTSA are the last two C-USA Champions. UTSA won the conference last season and along the way picked up a crazy 34-31 win (at home) over UAB with the game-winning touchdown coming in the final minute on a tipped pass. Previous to that, the Roadrunners had lost four straight times to the Blazers. They have never won here in Birmingham.
Heading into November, UTSA is sitting pretty atop the C-USA standings. They are the only team without a conference loss. UAB is just 2-3 in league play as a number of extenuating circumstances have gone against them.
With QB Dylan Hopkins sidelined with a concussion, UAB has lost two in a row. They still should have beaten Western Kentucky (lost 20-17) and then outgained Florida Atlantic in a 24-17 defeat. Yet they could very well go off as a favorite here, just as they have been for every game this season.
Hopkins is questionable for Saturday, which would mean Jacob Zeno under center again. That combined with the fact UTSA is coming off a bye will lead many to believe the Roadrunners are the “right” side here. I disagree. UAB’s offense should be able to move the ball effectively, no matter who the QB is. I like RB DeWayne McBride (#1 in the nation in yards per game) a lot. The Blazers’ defense will be the best UTSA has seen this season, besides Texas. UAB is a very unfortunate 0-4 in one-score games this season. No team in the country has fallen further short of their postgame expected win total. UTSA on the other hand is 3-1 in one-score games including 31-27 over North Texas two weeks ago. I think this is a get right game for UAB, who is a perfect 11-0 ATS at home when off a loss. 10* |
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11-05-22 | Brentford v. Nottingham Forest UNDER 2.5 | Top | 2-2 | Loss | -115 | 14 h 28 m | Show |
This is Nottingham Forest’s first season back in the Premier League since 1998-99 and, not surprisingly, they have struggled. Currently in last place, Forest is the only team without double digit points and their -20 goal differential is also a league worst.
But before the 5-0 thrashing they took from Arsenal last week, Forest had been a pretty decent defensive side. They’d held four straight opponents to 1 or 0 goals including a shock clean sheet win over Liverpool.
Now the attack is poor. You’d have to go all the way back to September to find the last time Nottingham Forest scored more than one goal in a match. They scored only two goals over the course of six October fixtures.
Forest has been tougher at home, which is where they’ve earned seven of their nine points this season. Brentford will be without star striker Ivan Toney. It’s bad enough that the Bees have scored only one goal in their previous three matches, that coming in last week’s 1-1 draw with Wolverhampton. Over the last seven matches, they have scored a total of just four goals. Defensively, Brentford should be fine here. They’ve been a little unlucky when it comes to conceding on the road this year. But when they traveled to take on another promoted side, AFC Bournemouth, they allowed just seven shots and zero goals. 10* |
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11-04-22 | Oregon State +4.5 v. Washington | Top | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
Oregon State comes into Friday night ranked #23 in the country, but is a short underdog on the road to unranked Washington. Last season, the Beavers snapped a nine-game losing streak to the Huskies, winning 27-24 as 2.5-point favorites. Now they go for their first win in Seattle since 2008.
OSU opened 2022 with three straight wins and covers. But then they fell to both USC and Utah. No shame there as those are two of the 15 best teams in America. Since then, the Beavers have rallied for a second three-game win streak, albeit against Stanford, Washington State and Colorado.
Washington opened the season at 4-0 and was ranked in Top 25. They are also now 6-2 with the losses coming on the road to UCLA and Arizona State. The Huskies have been favored in every game. QB Michael Penix Jr leads the country in passing yards, but is likely to encounter some resistance here as OSU’s defense gives up only 230.6 passing yards/game.
Oregon State’s offense is #1 in the conference in yards per pass attempt and #3 in rushing. I don’t think they’ll have much trouble moving the ball against a Washington defense that has allowed three of its last four opponents to score 39 or more. Weather could be an issue here. But look for OSU to stop turning the ball over so much. They were -8 in TO’s in their two losses. Washington has forced just one turnover in its last four games. Take the points in a game where I've got the two teams rated pretty evenly. 10* |
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11-04-22 | Bulls v. Celtics UNDER 223.5 | Top | 119-123 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
Following a 3-0 start to the year, Boston has dropped three of four - both SU and ATS. On Friday night, they’ll get a chance to avenge that first loss of the season, which came against Chicago.
The Bulls have won four of six and tonight go for their first three-game win streak of the season. They have beaten both Brooklyn and Charlotte to start November, the former of which was also a win for me.
In the first game vs. the Celtics, Chicago got to the free throw line quite a bit. They ended up going 26 of 29 from the charity stripe. I do not think they’ll be as productive there tonight.
Having held their last two opponents below 100 points, the Bulls’ defense should keep them in this one. I expect a much lower scoring game than what we saw from these two teams on 10/24 - when they combined for 222 points. That makes the Under a “no-brainer” in my eyes. The Under is 6-0 the last six times Chicago has faced a team that has a winning record. Boston has allowed just 94 and 107 points its last two games, excluding overtime. 8* |
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11-04-22 | Sabres +1.5 v. Hurricanes | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -140 | 18 h 5 m | Show |
The Sabres are firing on all cylinders on offense, with 18 goals scored in their last 3 games, all victories. They are on the road and face a very good Hurricanes team fresh off an overtime victory against the Lightning. Maybe too fresh, as the Canes are playing the second half of a back to back. The Sabres lost both games against Carolina, but that was then.. This is a different Sabres club with an equal record to the Hurricanes. They are 2nd in league offense, 3-1 to date on the road, and have the edge in special teams. The odds-makers are slow in cottoning on to the Sabres, allowing for very favorable odds on Friday. A win wouldn’t surprise me, but I am wagering on the Sabres to at least keep this one close. Take Buffalo +1.5 |
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11-04-22 | UMass v. Connecticut UNDER 40 | Top | 10-27 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
This is hardly the most ideal matchup for Friday night College Football (or any other day for that matter!) but the Under is absolutely worth playing here as UConn takes on UMass.
These are two of the worst teams in the country, although UConn could actually end up in a bowl after winning three of their last four games to get to 4-5 on the year. All four of those games have stayed Under with the last one - a 13-3 win over Boston College - being the lowest scoring yet.
UMass is the worst team in the entire FBS. The Minutemen’s lone victory was against FCS Stony Brook. There’s been just one game where they scored more than 20 points and only two where they topped 13. This Minutemen offense is not a threat to pass as they are dead last in the country with only 78.8 YPG.
UConn gained only 280 yards in the win over Boston College, so they aren’t exactly going to be chucking the ball all over the field either. The Huskies are averaging just 17.6 points/game. Only two times have they scored more than 14 against a FBS team all season. UMass is 5-1 to the Under in its last six games while UConn is 4-0 its last four. It’s as simple as that with the two offenses combining to average just over 30 points/game. 8* |
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11-03-22 | Eagles -13.5 v. Texans | Top | 29-17 | Loss | -116 | 44 h 23 m | Show |
The Eagles, 3rd in points scored this year, have beaten 4 teams by 12 or more points this season. The Texans have lost just once by more than Thursday's total points, but have yet to face a top 10 defense, let alone a team of the caliber of the Eagles. The Raiders and the Chargers put up 30+ points against Houston, but neither team has as complete an offense as the Eagles. Philadelphia does give up more rush yards and yards per attempt lately, their weakest spot on defense, but the Texans don't really have a run game. The Texans could have an opportunity to pressure Hurts as they are 19th and improving in sacks, but Hurts and Co. could just run the ball down the Texans' throats all evening if they wanted. the Texans gave up a whopping 314 rushing yards last week, and stand last in rush yards. The Eagles, really, should be able to pass or run at will, and will likely have a huge time of possession advantage. As long as they show up to play, the Eagles should win and cover under the light on TNF. |
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11-03-22 | Astros -148 v. Phillies | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
Nothing like a bounce back co-operative no-hitter to inspire a bit of confidence for Houston. Now in the Phillies' final home game of the series they run out Syndergaard, who had an average year throwing mainly soft stuff, but has been very good in brief appearances since mid-September. The Phillies will likely have a similar tactic on Thursday; anything over 3 or 4 innings will be a bonus. |
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11-03-22 | Appalachian State v. Coastal Carolina OVER 63.5 | Top | 28-35 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 52 m | Show |
This Thursday night matchup out of the Sun Belt figures to turn into a shootout. Visiting Appalachian State comes in off back to back 42-point efforts and is averaging 36.9 points/game on the year. Host Coastal Carolina averages 31.9 points/game. Offense, not defense, is the strong suit for both of these teams. The App State rushing attack is now in full force with both Nate Noel and Camerun Peoples healthy. The duo ran for 237 yards against Georgia State almost two weeks ago. Three of the last four games, the Mountaineers have run for at least 247 yards as a team. QB Chase Brice is also having a decent year. But the ASU defense has struggled when not facing FCS opponents. They gave up 36 points in a loss to Texas State the last time they played on the road. They also allowed 32 in a loss to James Madison and don’t forget about the 63 points North Carolina scored on them. Coastal Carolina has QB Grayson McCall, who is completing 68.8% of his throws in 2022. McCall has passed for over 2000 yards already with 19 touchdowns against only one interception. But, as is the case with their opponents, the Chanticleers’ defense is a concern. They allowed over 400 yards to Marshall in a misleading win last weekend and the game before that saw Old Dominion score 49 on them. Both of these teams should go over 30 points Thursday night. Play the Over. |
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