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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-16-22 | Mariners -140 v. Rangers | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 32 m | Show | |
The mighty Mariners have taken a pair on the road from the Rangers. Third time lucky? They run out Logan Gilbert today, who is 10-3 with an ERA of 2.80. Gilbert has faced the Rangers twice this season with good success. He is a strikeout machine but has given up 4 runs twice in his last three games while pitching for 6 innings. The M’s can back him up well, with a very hot bullpen. They held the Rangers run-less in the late innings last night. Spencer Howard (1-1, 8.04) is a recent return from the farm. He has 2 starts in July; while he was roughed up by the Orioles, his last start was much better, allowing 1 run over 5 innings. It is hard to know what to expect from Howard today, but he likely wont pitch for length, and the Cubs bullpen is overworked and lamentable (ERA +8.00) in recent games. Texas has a very solid offense, and might get to Gilbert for a few runs today, but the Mariners are no slouches with the bats, and could have plenty of opportunity vs Howard and the Rangers’ relievers. It could be high scoring and closer than last night, but I expect the M’s to prevail. Take Seattle to win. 9 stars. |
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07-16-22 | Mets -135 v. Cubs | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
A pair of sluggish offenses pair off on Saturday, although one team seems to be waking up. The 2-8 Cubs have lost 7 straight and were shut out by the Mets on Thursday. The Cubs have struggled mightily with their bats, scoring less than 3 runs in 8 of their last 10 starts and managed just a .183 BA vs right-handed pitching in their latest games. Short outings from their starters has been another problem, with a domino effect on the bullpen. Stroman, just one game back from the IL, starts on Saturday. He hasn’t pitched very much this year, but looked good in a short outing in his first game back, tossing a four inning shut out. Don’t look for length from Stroman; the Cubs will want to be careful with him at this point. The Mets are a good road team, and have been getting excellent starting pitching and solid relief, but the offense hit just .210 vs right handed pitching in the last week. They did manage a series win vs the Braves and roughed up the Cubs in the first game of the series 8-0. One of those fine starters is Taijuan Walker, who has put together a very good half-season, and will be looking to avoid the fate of last year when he fell apart immediately following the All Star Break. He has had a pair of 7 inning shutouts in his last three starts. Opponents are hitting just .163 against him in July. I favor Walker and the Mets on Saturday. Walker will likely throw deeper into the game, the Mets have much better and better rested relievers and appear ready to start a run. 9/10 stars: Take the Mets to win. |
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07-15-22 | Mariners -1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 8-3 | Win | 105 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Some would say they are overachieving, but the Mariners just keep on winning, now 10-1 in July. They won a close one last night vs the home team Rangers, and go for 2 straight in the series today. Robbie Ray starts for the M’s today, and he looks to have re-found his Cy Young form. Ray now has six straight quality starts allowing 1 run or less, while pitching 6 or 7 innings in each outing. He is, as usual, a strike-out machine. For the Rangers, the tail end of their starting pitching line-up has really struggled, and with Bush, a reliever on the mound, it will be start by committee today. The only problem is that the “committee” is overworked and sporting an ugly 6.02 ERA. The Mariners have some pop on offense, while the Rangers have more, but it is pitching that will rule the day today. The 5-7 Rangers have lost and won big in their last ten games, but Ray at the moment is very tough to run up much of a total, and the Seattle bullpen is lights out lately. The Mariners have won more than their share of close games lately, but I expect a wider margin today. Take the M’s, on a huge run and with all the momentum in the world, to win on the run line, at – 1 ½. 10*! |
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07-15-22 | Braves v. Nationals +1.5 | 8-4 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 29 m | Show | |
The 1-9 Nationals lost again in their home series opener against the Braves on Thursday. They scored 4 runs, their highest production in their last 10 games. They aren’t hitting at all for average and are managing a paltry 2.45 runs per game in their last 10 starts. Their starting pitching is woeful and the pen barely average. Corbin, Friday’s starter, has given them two terrific starts in his last three, allowing 1 run in each of a 7 and an 8 inning start. He did not fare as well against the Braves in his last appearance, allowing 4 runs in 6 innings. Corbin can be very inconsistent, other than that he consistently gives up too many hits. He is a better pitcher at home. The Nationals face a very tough Braves team, who are dominant on the road, fourth in offense at the moment, and off a series loss against the Mets. Atlanta is getting very fine starting pitching, but Friday’s starter Anderson is not one of their brighter lights. Like Corbin, he can be all over the map. His last two starts have been solid but short, five innings each. Opposing hitters tattooed him in June to the tune of .328, but that number has dropped in July. The Braves have a very strong bullpen in support of Anderson, while the Nationals’ relievers struggle. As poor as the Nationals have been in the last few weeks, it is of note that 6 of their last 10 games were decided by one run. I am banking on a big game from Corbin, and for the Nat’s to finally get it right. It may be a tall order, but the odds are very favorable. Take the Nationals on the run line at +1 ½. 8 stars. |
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07-14-22 | Astros -170 v. Angels | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 23 m | Show |
The Astros, with the second hottest offense in the league over the last two weeks, are right there in pitching stats as well. Not so the Angels, last in hitting lately and 22nd in pitching. It is no wonder the Angels are 2-8 and the Astros the reverse at 8-2. Lefty rookie Reid Detmers came back from Triple A recharged, and threw a 6 inning 7 strikeout shutout his first game back. Detmers has had his moments this season, including a no hitter, but results have been very mixed. He faces another left hander, the Astros’ very fine Framber Valdez (8-4, 2.64). Valdez faced the Angels just two starts ago, allowing 2 runs over 6 innings, and striking out 13! He keeps runs allowed to a minimum and pitches for length, holding the opposition to .167 BA in July. It wouldn’t surprise me if Detmers pitched well tomorrow, but his outings seldom last beyond the 5th or 6th inning, and, wouldn’t you know it, the Angels’ bullpen is barely a shadow of the Astros’ stellar relievers. Take the Astros, dynamite on the road and vs left handed pitching, to win going away. |
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07-14-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
The Reds are suddenly on a roll, sweeping the Rays and splitting to date with the Yankees. Meanwhile the Yankees look just slightly vulnerable at 5-5 L10. The Reds are getting solid pitching, starting and relief, and have Castillo on the mound today. Castillo (2.92 ERA) has really heated up in his last three starts, giving up just 2 runs in 20 innings and with some big strike out totals. The Yankees pitching staff rarely struggles, but they have over the last week, with a collective ERA of 5.61. Lefty Cortes starts today. A few cracks are starting to appear in Cortes' fine season. His starts are shorter and he is giving up more runs (12 in his last 4 starts). Opposing batters' avg. has climbed to .275 in July. Add this to the Yankees' temporarily poor bullpen, and the Reds have a real opportunity for a second series victory. I am wagering on the Reds to keep this one close at least. Take the Reds on the run line, at + 1 1/2. |
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07-13-22 | Brewers v. Twins -122 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 47 m | Show |
The Twins, in spite of a very hot offense of late, are just 5-5 L10. It is the starting pitching that has been in question with a majority of very poor short starts. The bullpen has, over the same time, been reasonably effective. Milwaukee has also struggled lately, but in their case the starters have been fine, while the bullpen has dropped the ball. Their offense had been very solid but it has cooled slightly in the last week. The Brewers left hander Ashby (2-6, 4.52) started the season very well, but came off the rails at the beginning of June. Opposing hitters crushed him that month to the tune of .350, and July’s numbers have not been that much better. He has been very poor on the road this year. He faces Twins’ rookie Joe Ryan. After a very fine start, he went on the IL, returning in June. Since then, he has shown steady improvement, flashing that early form in his last two starts. The Twins are a good home team with very impressive OPS and home run stats. Ashby has been a victim of the long ball lately, and has not pitched for length. Ryan has the real goods and the Twins’ bullpen has been able to deliver lately, unlike the Brewers’. I am banking on the rookie Ryan and the Twins’ offense on Wednesday. Go with the favorite. Twins to win. |
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07-12-22 | Reds +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 4-3 | Win | 130 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
On paper, this looks like quite the mismatch. Cincinnati is 32-54 and in last place in the National League Central. The Yankees are 61-25 and not only in first place in the American League, but they have the best overall record in baseball. But the Reds just did the Yankees a giant favor by sweeping Tampa Bay over the weekend. It was their first sweep of the season and just the second four-game win streak. The Reds might be buried in the standings, but they’ve gone a respectable 29-32 the last 61 games and deserve more respect than what they’re getting from the oddsmakers heading into this one. Plus, the Yankees have lost two straight and could only manage a 3-3 split against Boston and Pittsburgh. Ashcraft hasn’t been bad for Cincinnati as he’s allowed no more than two runs in six of his nine trips to the mound. Gerrit Cole allowed five runs in his last start for the Yankees and has given up a total of five home runs in the last three starts. The Reds should not be this big of an underdog Tuesday. Take them on the run line, which is a tremendous value here at “plus money.” |
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07-12-22 | Mets +1.5 v. Braves | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -125 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
The Mets came in and took the series opener behind seven strong innings from Max Scherzer. I believe they can beat Atlanta again today with David Peterson set to start. Peterson has a 9-2 team start record, which means the Mets have won 9 of the 11 times he’s started in 2022. His last start was shorter than usual (3.6 innings) with control issues (five walks). But that doesn’t worry me as the two starts before that one saw 18 strikeouts, no walks and only five runs allowed in 13 innings. Plus, the Mets won that last Peterson start anyway. Atlanta’s Spencer Strider has been very good as well lately. Over his last three starts, his ERA is 0.50 and his WHIP is 0.611. Those are actually pretty filthy numbers. But the Braves are still just 4-4 in Strider’s eight starts this year. Being that these are the top two teams in the NL East, this would seem to be a pretty even matchup, no? Taking the underdog is the way to go. Now Strider does deserve our respect, so play the run line. Getting 1.5 runs at this price with a team like the Mets is a good deal. Before losing 4-1 last night, the Braves’ previous two games were both one-run wins against the last place Nationals. |
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07-12-22 | Pirates v. Marlins -145 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -145 | 9 h 51 m | Show |
Pittsburgh surprised a lot of people by going into Miami and winning 5-1. Following consecutive wins over the Brewers, the Pirates now find themselves on just their third three-game win streak of this season. They’ve yet to win four in a row. Over the last three seasons, the team has gone just 1-8 when it’s on a three-game win streak. So look for the Marlins to strike back and win today. The Pirates have the worst offensive numbers of any National League team. Whether it’s on the road, or the last seven games overall, they’re hitting just .217. They average 3.4 runs/game on the road. A fourth straight game above that average seems rather unlikely. The Marlins could certainly use a jolt at the plate. Fortunately, they’ll be facing Chris Stratton, who will be making his first start for the Pirates and first start period since 2019. Stratton has struggled as a reliever this year and doesn’t figure to last long. He’ll likely be used more as an “opener.” The problem with that (for the Pirates) is that the bullpen isn’t very reliable. Daniel Castano should be able to lead Miami to the win here. I already talked about how bad Pittsburgh has been swinging the bats. Castano’s last start at home was his best of the season, allowing just two runs in seven innings. |
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07-11-22 | Phillies -105 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 12 m | Show |
The Phillies have won 7 of 10, but It hasn’t been the big bats pulling the weight. The pitching staff has collectively thrown a 9 inning shut out in 4 of their last 7 games, and their often maligned bullpen has been absolutely lights out in the last 10 games. The Cards’ bats ARE slumbering. They have been shut out 4 times in their last 10 games, twice by the Phillies, and are just 3 -7 lately. Their pitching has also been solid, especially the relievers; they haven’t given up more than 3 runs in their last 5 games. Phillies’ starter Nola has had a solid season, and June was his best month. He consistently pitches into the 7th or 8th, has great control, and more than a few strikouts (120!) He has given up 7 runs in his last two starts, more than usual for Nola, but is very good in early innings. His opponent Mikolas was brilliant early, and very good in June. He is a pitch to contact kind of guy, and doesn’t get the big strikeout totals. He faced the Phillies just 2 starts ago and allowed 4 runs, 2 earned over 6 innings. I like the Phillies on Monday. The Cards haven’t faced Nola this year, and haven’t had much success against him in the past. The Phillies have the offense, they have the momentum at the moment, and they have done some damage against Mikolas. The Cards are struggling and I don’t think the turn around will come against Nola. He usually needs very little relief help. Take the Phillies to win. |
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07-10-22 | Cubs v. Dodgers -1.5 | Top | 9-11 | Win | 100 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
The Cubs have lost three straight close games and are now 0-9 vs the Dodgers at home. The Cubs don’t get the job done on the road or against left handed pitching with any regularity. Meanwhile, the 9-1 Dodgers are on a tear, are dominant at home and very tough on lefties. LA left-hander Urias has won four straight games, giving up just 8 runs in his last 6 starts. There is no June swoon for Urias. He has improved as the season progressed, and consistently gives a 6 inning quality start. Cubs left-hander Drew Smyly (2-5, 3.80) was getting the job done, especially early in the season, before injury. The opposition was hitting .277 against him in May. Smyly rarely pitches for length, but as he is just returning from the IL, that is a given today. The Dodgers and Cubs are top ten in offense at the moment but the Dodgers have a good sized edge in power stats. Smyly can be prone to the long ball. The Cubs’ bullpen has been solid lately but few can teams can match the Dodgers relief corps. All roads point to a Dodgers win. In his first game back, Smyly is a bit of an unknown. LA is a huge favorite but the odds on the run line are acceptable. Take the Dodgers to win at -1 ½. |
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07-10-22 | Tigers +1.5 v. White Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -120 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
The Tigers lost on Saturday, but have won 6 of 7, with solid offense, and other than last night, very good pitching. They are not a good road team, but have put up some surprising numbers lately and their bullpen has an ERA of under 2.00 L10. Usually a reliever, Drew Hutchison (4.30 ERA) has started 3 games in the Tigers rotation lately with modest success. His last game was his best, allowing just 1 run over 5 innings. The Tigers will likely be reliant on that bullpen, as he has yet to pitch past the fifth. The 5-5 White Sox crushed the Tigers on the back of a fine start from Johnny Cuetto, but things are not all roses with the White Sox’ pitching staff. Kopech, Sunday’s starter pitched brilliantly in the first two months, but has fallen off the rails in his last 4 starts. His last outing was his worst, giving up 6 runs in 4+ innings. Walks were always something of an issue, but his home runs allowed have skyrocketed. The Sox are a very poor home team, but are hitting right-handers well at the moment. The White Sox are a significant favorite for Sunday, but after four sub-par starts, Kopech’s issues look more than fleeting. The White Sox’ bullpen has an ERA of over 4.2 lately. Hutchison is a bit of an unknown, but the young Tigers team is on an impressive streak at the moment. A win on Sunday wouldn't surprise me, but I do expect them to keep this game close. Take the Tigers on the run line at + 1 1/2.. |
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07-10-22 | Marlins +112 v. Mets | Top | 2-0 | Win | 112 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
The Mets beat the Marlins at home in extra innings on Saturday. They’ve had a solid edge over the Marlins this year, leading 7-3 in games to date, however they face the Marlins’ ace on Sunday. The Marlins’ right-hander Alcantara has been a dominant starter this year, with a 1.82 ERA to date. He has faced the Mets twice this season. One of those starts was his worst in some time, giving up 4 runs over 7 innings. The other was a two run win. Alcantara has been light-out vs anyone not named Lindor, and pitches for great length consistently. His opponent is no slouch this year. Walker (7-2,2.86 ERA) has faced the Marlins twice this year, allowing 4 runs over 12+ innings. He has been very fine in June, and is much better at home than on the road (1.86 vs 3.44). The Marlins are a little like the “Mets light”, not quite as strong on offense and not quite as consistent in the pen. Alcantara is a big equalizer. He lost last time out to the Mets, and I would think that that game will be a motivator. Not to discount Walker, but he isn’t quite as consistent or overpowering. I am banking on a big game from Alcantara and the underdog Marlins on Sunday. Miami to win outright. |
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07-09-22 | Rays -148 v. Reds | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -148 | 9 h 19 m | Show |
The Rays lost to the Reds in extra innings in a very fine pitchers’ duel. They are hitting better lately but did not show it on Friday. Rasmussen (5-3, 3.30) starts on Saturday. He pitched well in his return from the IL, holding the Jays to a single run over 4+innings in his last outing. You seldom get length out of Rasmussen, but of all teams, the Rays know how to get the most out of their pitchers. The same would not appear true with the way the Reds are handling their rookie fire-baller Greene (3-10, 6.01).He has had a few good outings but the bad more than outweighs the good, as we can see from his stats. He has definitely not shone lately, giving up 15 runs in 14 innings. He leads the league in the unenviable stat of most home runs allowed to date. The Reds are a very poor home team, with an indifferent offense this year. Their bullpen is not at all dependable usually, but they’ve managed two good relief efforts in their last two games. Don’t count on a third. Neither pitcher will likely go long tomorrow. I am banking on the Rays and the Rays’ bullpen to bounce back and win. |
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07-09-22 | Angels v. Orioles +106 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 106 | 5 h 59 m | Show |
The Orioles won in the late innings on Friday and can make it 7 straight victories today. Right hander Dean Kramer is on the mound today. After a late start, Kramer pitched surprisingly well over his first five appearances to an ERA of 1.29. Start# 6 did not go as well. He allowed 5 runs in an ugly 5th inning, nearly doubling his ERA. A return to past form, or simply a bad inning? He faces Angels’ lefty Sandoval, who was also roughed up in his last start, getting beaten early and often. Sandoval was very successful in June, allowing just 6 runs in 4 starts, but there are some warning signs. He consistently allows more hits than is healthy, his walk totals are high, and he is much better at home. The Angels, with all of their potential offense, just can’t seem to get it together in recent games and have now lost 6 of 7 on this road trip. The management change has not appeared to help. It is hard to have much faith in the Angels at the moment. I like the Oriole’s chances even as an underdog. I expect Kramer to rebound, and have more faith in the Orioles’ offense at the moment. Sandoval appears to dodge too many bullets for my liking. There is also the momentum factor; the Orioles have plenty and the Angels, after a dismal road trip, appear to have none. Take the Orioles to steal this one. |
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07-08-22 | Angels v. Orioles -128 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 45 m | Show |
Things are looking up in Baltimore. The Orioles have been a solid home team this year and have now won five straight games. They are getting sharp starting pitching, especially from Tylers Wells (7-4, 3.09), today’s starter. Now in his second year, Wells is starting to look like the real thing. In his last three start he has allowed just 2 runs over 16 innings. He doesn’t usually pitch past the 5th or 6th but he opposition is hitting well under .200 for the months of June and July. The Angels would appear to be in complete disarray at this moment. They are a poor road team, they can’t hit, and other than games started my Ohtani, can’t win either. In their last 5 losses, they have managed just 6 runs. Today’s starter Reid Detmers, is just back from Triple A, after a few rough outings in June. The rookie left hander has had his moments this season, including that no hitter, but he doesn’t usually pitch for length, and has been a victim of the long ball. With neither starter usually pitching deep, we will see some innings from the pens, and neither team has an edge in that department, I am on the Orioles today. They are showing well lately, and Wells is the better starter. The Angels continue to flounder, with a managing change providing no relief. Take the Orioles to win outright today. |
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07-07-22 | Giants v. Padres OVER 6.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 36 m | Show |
Two pretty good right handers face off on Thursday when the Giants meet the Padres in their series opener. The Giants’ Webb was roughed up for 5 runs, 3 earned, in his last outing, but was very sharp in his previous 4 starts giving up just 3 runs total. His opponent, Joe Musgrove, has slipped from the very high “Cy Young contender” perch he has held for most of the season. His last three starts have not been as impressive, and it is the long ball that has been the culprit. He has given up 5 in his last three games, more than in his previous 11 starts. The Giants have tumbled into ineptitude, losing 6 of 7, after barely rallying vs the D-backs on Wednesday night. The 2-8 Padres aren’t much better, also hitting very poorly. The two teams are hitting 26th and 27th respectively over their last 15 games. Both bullpens usually are close to the MLB standard, but are struggling mightily lately with ERAs approaching or at 6.00 in their last 10 games. Thursday's total is very low, but neither starter has been at his best, and even though neither team is hitting well, both bullpens are struggling badly. I think there is a pretty good chance that one of these starters will not perform up to standard, and the relievers will drag this one over. Take the total to go over 6.5 |
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07-07-22 | Royals v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 6 m | Show |
The Royals knocked off the mighty Astros on Wednesday, but don’t count on two straight wins for KC. The Astros are hitting lefties at a .310 clip recently. No disrespect, but Royals starter Bubic is a struggling southpaw at the moment. Opposing hitters roughed him up to the tune of .302 in June. Not a good combo if you are a Royals fan. Bubic doesn’t pitch for length and the Royals’ bullpen has struggled all year, managing just a 5.35 ERA in their last 10 games. The Astros are tops of the Bops at the moment, hitting for a massive OPS. They are a very good home team, and have Verlander on the mound. It is not like Verlander never has a bad game (he has had two this year), but he is as dependable as any pitcher, and held the Yankees and the Mets to 1 and 0 runs in his last two starts. He pitches for great length, and the Astros relief corps are the best in the business. The Royals are a very poor road team, and dismal as a road underdog. This matchup is a mismatch, and the odds-makers agree. Anything can and will happen in an MLB game, but I am on the Astros on the run line on this one. Take Houston at - 1 1/2. |
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07-06-22 | Angels v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 30 m | Show |
Ohtani is 3-0 in his last 3 starts, giving up 0 runs and striking out 30 batters. Talk about finding his form! He starts against a fair to middling offensive team in the Marlins, who ran out their ace in a 2-1 win on Wednesday. This could very easily be another low scoring affair, although Rogers, the Marlins starter, has been very uneven this year. More was expected of Rogers after a breakout year , but June was not kind to him, with just 21+ innings pitched, a 7.06 ERA, and some very hefty base on balls totals over 5 starts. There has been some improvement in his last couple of outings. Is he beginning to see the light? The Angels don’t usually hit lefties well, but lately they haven’t hit much of anything. They added just a single in the runs-for column yesterday, bringing their total to just 5 runs in 4 games. Miami’s pen has been consistently good and mopped up well for Alcantara last night. The Angels’ bullpen has struggled, but Angels wins are rare , so expect the best available Angels relievers in this one. Ohtani may not need much support given the way he is pitching. I expect Rogers to show a little better and Ohtani to cruise through the Marlins. Take the Under. |
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07-06-22 | Twins -101 v. White Sox | Top | 8-9 | Loss | -101 | 7 h 60 m | Show |
The 6-4 Twins still have those heavy bats, and are getting solid pitching lately. Their fine rookie Joe Ryan struggled somewhat in his return from the IL, but appears to be back in fine form after a 7 inning 1 run 7 K outing in his last start. The Twins are a good road team and generally are tough on right-handers, but the face a fine one In the Sox’ Lance Lynn on Wednesday. It took Lynn a few starts to get it right after a protracted period on the disabled list, but he got it right in his fourth start, a 6 inning shutout. It doesn’t look like he will pitch for length quite yet, but it does seem that Lynn has found his form.. The White Sox are fine for average but they are lacklustre for power, especially lately. They are well below .500 at home, and are just 26th vs right-handed pitching this year. While it is easy to be high on Lynn, I am a big fan of Ryan this year, and it is good to seem him fully recovered from Covid. This one could be close, as the odds would suggest, but the Twins are a more powerful club and are getting much better relief support from their pen. Look for the Twins to squeak this one out on the road. |
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07-05-22 | Mets -1.5 v. Reds | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
The Reds/Mets game on Tuesday features a couple of starters just back from the IL. Mets’ very fine right hander Scherzer looked good in his last rehab start, and was great before his injury this season. He has been there and done it all; a sound bet for an easy return. He is up against Reds’ young left-hander Lodolo who was 1 for 3 as far as quality starts go in his rookie year before injury. He also looked strong in rehab assignments, but is hardly a seasoned vet, so he is much more of a question mark on Tuesday. The Mets’ struggling starters can use the boost of Scherzer’s return, but their bullpen has been pulling its weight lately. Not so the Reds, whose pen has a wretched collective ERA of near 10.0 /L10 games. The Reds are a poor home side at just 13-25 to date. The Mets have struggled to get the bats going lately but woke up against the Reds’ Greene yesterday. Tuesday could be the day for a big breakout, especially against the scrambling Reds’ bullpen. Neither starter will likely pitch for length after returning from the IL. Watch the Mets win this one going away. Take the Mets on the Run line at - 1 1/2. |
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07-05-22 | Angels v. Marlins -135 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 26 m | Show |
The 4-6 Angels aren’t hitting up a storm lately, scoring just 4 runs in their last three games. The Marlins have won 4 straight on the road, and now return home where they are above .500 this season. They start their ace Alcantara, (8-3, 1.95) a formidable right-hander consistently pitching for length and ERA. The Angels have almost no experience against Alcantara, and could be in for a rude awaking on Tuesday. The Angels’ mighty righty Syndergaard (3.86) has struggled somewhat in his last starts, but has generally delivered this year. It is what happens post-Syndergaard, where the trouble could begin. The bullpen has done extra duty due to short starts and has not thrived, with an ERA of 6.31 in the last week. Alcantara doesn’t usually need a lot of support, but the Marlins’ pen has been sharp with an ERA around 2.0 of late. Better recent offense, a much better bullpen, and arguably a better starter gives the edge to the Marlins. They are favored, but shop around, then pay the price. |
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07-04-22 | Twins v. White Sox -122 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -122 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
The White Sox have had a disappointing first half to the season, but they’re only 4.5 games out of first place in the AL Central. Coming off a weekend sweep of the Giants, they can chop more into that deficit as they host the first place Twins on Monday, the start of a pretty important three-game series. Last time the teams met, the Twins swept. But that was back in April. The White Sox are not only out for revenge, but also playing much better baseball now than they were two and a half months ago. I already mentioned the sweep of San Francisco over the weekend. The Sox punctuated it with a 13-4 win yesterday. That the sweep took place in San Francisco makes the weekend result all the more impressive for Chicago. Minnesota had a chance to sweep over the weekend as well, but failed, losing at home to Baltimore on Sunday, 3-1. Surprisingly, the Twins are just 3-8 their last 11 division games. Dylan Bundy isn’t very good when starting on the road. The team is 2-6 in his eight away starts and you can pin that on a 6.41 ERA and 1.526 WHIP. Johnny Cueto has not allowed more than three runs in any of his last four starts. In three career starts vs. Minnesota, he’s 3-0 with a 0.90 ERA and has 21 strikeouts in 20 innings. By the way, both of Minnesota’s wins against Baltimore over the weekend came in the final at-bat. |
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07-03-22 | Cardinals v. Phillies -150 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Back on Thursday, I closed out June with a 10* Game of the Month winner on the Phillies. They won 14-4 behind Aaron Nola. I’m going back to the well today with Zach Wheeler, who has been every bit as effective as Nola this year. After winning again Friday, 5-3, the Phillies lost Saturday’s game to the Cardinals, 7-6. They succumbed to five St. Louis’ home runs, which is obviously something you shouldn’t expect to happen again. Wheeler did allow a pair of home runs in his last start, but had previously allowed just three all season. He has a 1.85 ERA and 0.863 WHIP at home. Adam Wainwright is having another good year for St. Louis, but there are signs that regression may soon take hold. He’s allowed at least seven hits in each of the last five starts. The Cardinals are only 2-6 in the +125 to +175 range on the road. The Phillies aren’t going to fall into another 5-0 hole after the first inning like they did yesterday. Take the home team! |
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07-03-22 | Yankees v. Guardians +1.5 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 6 h 58 m | Show |
After being swept in yesterday’s doubleheader, the Guardians now find themselves at 0-5 head to head vs. the Yankees in 2022. Of course, there are many teams that haven’t done well against the Yankees this season. But Cleveland is going to be pretty desperate to avoid the sweep today. Take them on the run line. Cleveland came into this series off a pair of dramatic victories over the first place Twins (both walkoffs). Even after the poor performance yesterday, the team has a winning record at home and is very much alive for the AL Central pennant. The Yankees are only 8-8 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Jordan Montgomery is coming off two straight less than stellar outings. He allowed nine runs total and that was against Oakland and Tampa Bay. The Guardians are more respectable at the plate than those teams. Having Triston McKenzie starting helps Cleveland’s cause Sunday as well. McKenzie has an 8-5 team start record this year, meaning the Guardians have won 8 of his 13 starts. His last two starts were also less than stellar, but both were against the same team (Minnesota). I think the Guardians should - at the very worst - stay within a run here. An outright upset is a definite possibility. Grab the +1.5. |
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07-03-22 | Royals v. Tigers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 41 m | Show |
Both starters on Sunday have been struggling of late, but this has been a low-scoring series thus far (all Unders) and neither lineup is what you’d term “strong.” Kansas City is averaging only three runs/game over its last six contests, which is even worse than usual. Their season average is 3.8 runs/game. Of course, that’s better than Detroit, who is last in all of baseball at 3.0 runs/game for the season. The Tigers have scored only 11 runs in the last four games. The first two games of the series have been a 3-1 win for the Royals and 4-3 win for the Tigers. I think the low-scoring trend will continue. Tarik Skubal had a couple of rough starts in June for Detroit. But the last two times he’s faced Kansas City, Skubal has not allowed a run while working 9.6 innings. The Under is 4-2-1 in his home starts. Brady Singer for Kansas City has allowed three or fewer runs the last two times he faced the Tigers. By the way, it’s not just this series. All five times these teams have met this year, the Under has hit. The most runs scored in any of the five games was seven. Go with the Under again today. |
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07-02-22 | Montreal v. Saskatchewan -4.5 | Top | 20-41 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
It’s a quick turnaround for the teams here and a rematch from last week when Montreal picked up its first win of the season, in shocking fashion, with a 37-13 beatdown of Saskatchewan. Needless to say, I see things going a bit differently this time around.
The Als’ defense stepped up big last week by recording three interceptions and eight sacks. But that was at home and they were coming off a bye. There’s no rest advantage this week and the game is at Mosiac Stadium.
Saskatchewan has already recorded two home wins in 2022. They beat Hamilton and Edmonton by a total of 34 points.
Something that must be pointed out about last week is that total yardage was basically even. The Roughriders are definitely the better team in this matchup and come from the much stronger division. I believe we’re getting an oddsmakers’ discount here because of last week’s result. Lay those points. |
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07-02-22 | A's +1.5 v. Mariners | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
Oakland won Friday’s game 3-1 - as a big underdog - and I think they’re worth a shot again Saturday, albeit on the run line against Seattle. While the A’s had previously lost four in a row, including the opener in Seattle, remember that they were very competitive against the Yankees earlier this week - despite not picking up a win. Paul Blackburn starting today’s game definitely helps our cause. This right-hander is having a good season, particularly on the road where he’s 5-0 with a 1.44 ERA and 1.060 WHIP. Blackburn faced Seattle once before this season and not only did he pick up the win (4-2), but allowed just one hit in 5.3 innings. The Mariners have an 18-20 record at home, which has translated into a loss of 5.6 units. The thing about the A’s lineup is that it has been a lot better on the road. At home they average a rather pathetic 2.3 runs/game. On the road, that average jumps to 4.0, which isn’t all that different from the 4.1 runs/game Seattle averages at home. Again, the run line might come into play here as well. Or maybe not as George Kirby starts for the Mariners and he has a 5.54 ERA in five previous home starts. Kirby allowed seven runs the last time we saw him and that was versus Baltimore. Take the +1.5. |
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07-01-22 | Marlins v. Nationals -126 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -126 | 10 h 33 m | Show |
Revenge spot for the Nationals, who are 1-8 against the Marlins this season and were swept in the most recent series. Two things are different this time, however. One is that the Nationals are playing a lot better. They’ve won six of their last nine games. Two is that this time they are at home. Miami is simply not very good away from home. Their road record is 15-24. While they did come up big for me the other night, winning 4-3 at St. Louis, the Marlins had previously lost the first two games of that series. Over their last seven games, the Marlins are averaging only 2.7 runs. The only time in those seven games where they scored more than three runs was the last one, when they scored four. That’s good news for Josiah Gray, who already has a 1.00 ERA and 0.89 WHIP in his most recent three starts. Somehow the Nationals have managed to lose all three. But going back even further, Gray has allowed no more than two runs in any of his previous starts. He’s due for a win here. Lefty Trevor Rogers seems to be the “weak link” of the Marlins rotation as he has a 5.86 ERA and 1.635 WHIP this season. The team is 4-10 in his 14 starts and only one time has Rogers made it through a full six innings. That was back in April. Look for Gray and the Nationals to get their revenge. |
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07-01-22 | Red Sox v. Cubs OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 21 m | Show |
Two of baseball’s most storied franchises meet this weekend at Wrigley Field. The Red Sox are doing much better than the Cubs in 2022, which is really not all that surprising. The visitors enter this three-game series at 43-33 and tied for the top Wild Card in the American League. Meanwhile, the Cubs are one of six teams that has a winning percentage below .400. But I believe the best value on today’s matchup is on the Over. The reason being, I just don’t have much faith in either starter. The Cubs’ Adrian Sampson has bounced back and forth between Triple A and the big league club. His career numbers at this level just aren’t that great and he should struggle vs. a team that’s top six in scoring on the road and hitting .291 over the past week. Rich Hill is nothing more than an average starter for the Red Sox. He comes in with a 4.23 ERA. The thing about the Cubs is they have been putting runs on the board recently, scoring 6.4 per game over the last seven while batting .304! \The Over is 4-0 in the Cubs' last four home games vs. a left-handed starter. The Over is also 4-0 the last four times the Red Sox have been off a game where they gave up five or more runs. They were 6-5 winners on Wednesday. |
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06-30-22 | Braves v. Phillies -148 | Top | 4-14 | Win | 100 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
The Phillies are now facing the prospect of getting swept in their own ballpark as they’ve lost the first two games of this series with the Braves by scores of 5-3 and 4-1. That leaves them not only five games back of Atlanta for second place in the NL East but also eight games back of first in the division. Not to mention the Phillies are now three games off the pace in the Wild Card chase. The lack of offense we’ve seen from the Phillies these last two games is a bit concerning. But the team should have no concerns on the mound Thursday with Aaron Nola starting. Nola enters today with a 2.98 ERA and 0.89 WHIP. In his last four starts, he’s gone a total of 30 innings and allowed just three runs. Yes, the Braves have gone 21-5 in June. But the Phillies are 18-8 and also 35-17 the last 52 times they’ve lost the first two games of a series. Nola has had success in the past vs. Atlanta, going 13-8 with a 3.21 ERA in 26 starts. The last time he faced them was on May 26th. That game, which was in Atlanta, saw Nola go 8.3 innings and allow only one run on five hits. He also had 10 strikeouts. The Phillies ended up winning 4-1. Ian Anderson is starting here for the Braves. His WHIP is a little concerning, especially the last three starts where that number is 1.704. Two of the three starts saw Anderson last just four innings and give up four runs. As hot as Atlanta has been, trust me that Nola will be the difference maker in this game. |
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06-29-22 | Dodgers -184 v. Rockies | Top | 8-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 46 m | Show |
Ok, enough is enough. Time for the Dodgers to beat the Rockies. Been a bit of a shocker this week at Coors Field with the road team dropping the first two games. While the Dodgers have been swept four times this year, I can’t see it happening here. Urias has been excellent this season, even though he’s 5-6 for LA. His ERA is 2.48. Over his last three starts, Urias has allowed just four runs and eight hits in 18 innings with 25 strikeouts. The Rockies are actually 4-1 vs. the Dodgers this year. But coming into this series they were just a .500 team at home and 11 games below .500 overall. Marquez has struggled at home for the Rocks with a 6.70 ERA and 1.624 WHIP. That’s in eight starts. Colorado should feel fortunate that they’ve gone 5-3 in those eight starts, considering Marquez’s numbers. Even after yesterday’s result, the Rockies are only 4-14 after a win. |
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06-29-22 | Marlins -113 v. Cardinals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
I like Miami here. They’ve got Alcantara on the hill and he’s been one of the better pitchers in baseball. With Alcantara carrying a 1.95 ERA and 0.95 WHIP, you’d think that the Marlins would be better than 9-6 in his 15 starts this year. They’re not, but this price is too tempting to pass up. Now the “elephant in the room” is Miami’s 1-10 record vs. St. Louis going back to last year. They’ve lost the first two games at Busch Stadium this week, 9-0 and 5-3. But they were expected to. Oddsmakers might still consider them an underdog today, but I believe that’s a mistake. Alcantara alone can be the difference maker. St. Louis has Pallante pitching and he’s still unproven with just four starts under his belt. Three of his four starts have come against the Reds or Cubs. Alcantara has never beaten the Cardinals, but does have a 0.99 ERA in four career starts against them. He’s allowed just 18 hits in those four starts with 29 strikeouts in 27.3 innings. Nolan Arenado and Paul Goldschmidt, two of St. Louis’ best hitters, are a combined 3 for 22 with eight strikeouts lifetime vs. Alcantara. The Marlins are 5-0 the last five times they’ve dropped the first two games of a series. Make it 6-0! |
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06-29-22 | A's v. Yankees -1.5 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 5 h 44 m | Show |
Oakland has been surprisingly competitive in this series. They led 5-3 on Monday, going into the seventh inning, before a six-run Yankees’ rally turned the tide. Last night’s game, where I had the Under, ended up being a 2-1 final. Even though the Yankees have had a bevy of close results recently (five of last 10 games decided by one run), anything other than a blowout win today seems unlikely. After all, this is a matchup of the teams with the best and worst records in all of baseball. The Yanks are 12-2 in Jameson Taillon starts this year and 6-0 the last six. Taillon’s teammates had to bail him out after a subpar outing last time, but that was against Houston. Offensively, Oakland is last in baseball in just about every major statistical category. So far the Yankees are 21-5 in June. They are winning by an average margin of 2.1 runs/game at home for the year. The A’s are 5-19 this month. They lose by an average of 1.4 runs/game for all of 2022. Cole Irvin will start this afternoon for them. Each of his previous eight trips to the mound, the team has taken a loss. The Yankees are 19-7 in games vs. left-handed starters. Irvin and the A’s are no match for them. |
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06-28-22 | Reds +108 v. Cubs | Top | 5-3 | Win | 108 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
The two bottom teams in the NL Central meet this week at Wrigley Field. Both teams have been outscored by 77 runs this season. That’s not a good differential by any means, but it’s better than the third place Pirates, who are -100 in that department. The Reds come in at 25-47 and are in last place in the division. But they just won two of three out in San Francisco and are a respectable 22-25 after a horrible start to the season. The Cubs have lost 15 of 20. Luis Castillo is putting up solid numbers for Cincy, he’s just not been racking up wins. Consider there’s been only one start all season where Castillo allowed more than three earned runs. It was his last one and that was against the Dodgers. Castillo has a 0.97 WHIP on the road. Keegan Thompson has turned in consecutive quality starts. But the two starts before that saw him allow 12 runs in 3 ⅔ innings. All things considered, I believe the Reds to be a solid value in the opener of this three-game series. |
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06-28-22 | Red Sox +129 v. Blue Jays | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 20 m | Show |
The Blue Jays were big winners in Monday’s opener, 7-2, but let’s not overlook the fact they have a big edge on the mound with Gausman going against Seabold. That’s not the case today when Wacha faces Stripling. Before losing yesterday’s game, the Red Sox had won seven in a row and were 19-4 for the month. They’ve zipped past Toronto in the AL East, though now have just a half-game lead for second place after Monday’s result. Wacha will pitch better than Seabold did yesterday for Boston. Wacha is 6-1 with a 2.34 ERA and has one of the only two Red Sox wins over Toronto in 2022. Back on April 27th, he allowed just one run and four hits in six innings. Overall, Boston is 9-2 in Wacha’s last 11 starts. Stripling has just two quality starts this season and he came out on the losing end vs. Wacha on April 27th. Stripling didn’t pitch all that poorly, but the Jays still lost 7-1. He has a 6.62 ERA in seven career starts vs. Boston. The Red Sox have not lost back to back games all month. |
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06-28-22 | A's v. Yankees UNDER 8 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
Oakland thought they had the Yankees beat on Monday as they led 5-3 going into the bottom of the seventh. Had they held on (spoiler alert: they did not), it would have been one of the biggest upsets of the entire MLB season. The Yankees stormed back with six runs in the bottom of the seventh and that was all the scoring for the game. Expect Tuesday to be lower-scoring. While the A’s scored five runs last night and have totaled 19 in their last three games, they remain last in the league in team batting average, slugging and on base percentage. They’re second to last in runs, producing only 3.2 per game. Montas should limit the damage the Yankees do, however. The Under is 10-4 in Montas starts so far. He tossed eight shutout innings in his most recent start and allowed just two hits. Sears should have a solid start for the Yankees. His only previous start saw him turn in five shutout innings. The Yankees bullpen is of course really solid as well. Here at Yankee Stadium, the Pinstripes are allowing an average of just 2.8 runs/game. Take the Under in this one. |
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06-27-22 | White Sox v. Angels -125 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 44 m | Show |
The White Sox went one and three in their series vs the Orioles, scoring just 3 runs in the three losses. They have a very poor record vs the Angels, even worse when facing them at home. The Angels are 5-5 L10, and have been in a profound and surprising funk on offense, from which they appear to be emerging. Neither of Monday’s pitchers is coming off a quality start. The difference is Syndergaard the Angels’ starter gave up just 2 ER in his previous 2 starts, while Giolito has given up 19 runs over 15 innings in his last three starts. Something has definitely gone sideways with Giolito’s mechanics. He has gone from a 2.57 ERA in April to a 9.00 ERA in June. Monday’s game is a great opportunity for some of those slumping giants on the Angels’ side to break out, and for an aging Syndergaard to strut his stuff. He was very good last outing until a blowout eighth inning. I am on the side of the Angels today. L.A. To win outright. |
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06-27-22 | Rangers -132 v. Royals | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
The 5-5 Rangers, on the road vs the Royals, have historically had very good success in Kansas City. The Royals have been known to struggle at home, winning just 1 of 4 games lately, including losing their latest series against the A’s. Bubic (7.41 ERA) starts for the Royals today He has struggled mightily this year but has improved in June, lowering his ERA to 3.92 for the month. He is, however, winless at home. He faces Martin Perez (1.96 ERA), a surprisingly effective left hander this year. He doesn’t overpower, but has shown tremendous control. His last two starts have been especially good. The Rangers’ bats have been ripping into left handed pitching lately and are getting very solid work from their bullpen. The Royals generally struggle vs left handers and their pen has performing badly of late. The Rangers are favored today, and rightly so, I believe. I am taking the Perez and the road team to steal a victory today. |
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06-26-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 22 m | Show |
The “never say die” Lightning have stretched the series to a sixth game at home, on the backs of Vasilevskiy and a tight style of play. They have managed to control the Av’s offense to the tune of just 2 goals allowed in their last three games, much better than I expected. They have the advantage of the final change tonight, and may have the Av’s wondering just what they have to do to beat Tampa’s goal-tender. Kuemper has played well but not at the same standard as the Tampa net-minder. The Av’s gave up twice the number of penalties in game five and it burned them. They too will have to play a tighter game; their success came when they limited the Lightning’s shot totals in games one and two. Those totals have crept up closer to 30 lately. Kuemper’s play can’t stand the impact of too many mistakes. I expect to see an even tighter game today. I am sticking with the total, but have been burned on the over. Find the highest available line tonight and take the under. |
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06-26-22 | Dodgers -110 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 42 m | Show |
Two very good teams with a history meet up today for the deciding game of the series. The 7-3 Dodgers are on the road, where they are a cool 25-13 this season. They dominate right-handed pitching. After a very good run, the Braves are just 6-4 in their last ten, but are hitting up a storm, tops in the league over the last two weeks at .261/.835 OPS. Young Braves right-hander Strider (3.40 ERA) starts for just the sixth time. 3 of the first 4 were very good, but he came back to earth in his last outing, giving up 6 runs in just 3.2 innings. He faces some stiff opposition in right-handed Dodgers starter, Tony Gonsolin (9-0, 1.58). Gonsolin is off his “worst” start of the year, when he allowed 2 runs over five innings. Opposing hitters are just .115 against him in June. The Dodgers have the top offense in the league for the season, but have slipped to 6th lately, still a very impressive .267/.788 OPS. They also have the edge in relief pitching with a very low ERA of 2.43 lately. The Dodgers are just a small favorite today, but Strider is very much still a work in progress; Gonsolin has the proven goods. Take the Dodgers to steal a win on the road. |
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06-26-22 | Red Sox v. Guardians UNDER 9.5 | Top | 8-3 | Loss | -115 | 6 h 5 m | Show |
The Red Sox have 6 straight victories, and are 8-2 in their last 10 games. They are getting great hitting and very good starting pitching. Left-hander Hill has not been one of their best starters this year. He doesn’t pitch for length and he doesn’t shut anyone down, but at 42 years, he still gets the job done. He will likely give up a couple runs against the hard hitting Guardians. The Guardians were hot until they met up with the Sox. They’ve lost a pair at home and will need a win from Civale to avoid the Sox sweep. Civale, a solid starter last year, has struggled mightily this season then went on the IL in May. He has just one start in June, and looked very good in a five inning 2 run, 7 strikeout effort against the Twins. Considering these two teams’ hitting abilities and Civale’s ERA, the over would look like a good possibility, and today’s total is high, but there are a couple of contra-indicators here. The Guardians are poor against left handed pitching. Civale’s stuff looked good in his final start before injury and in his last one, and he has been a sound starter in the past. The Guardians are getting good relief pitching. I favor the Under on this game. It is just too high a total in my opinion. Shop around before you buy! |
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06-25-22 | Nationals +114 v. Rangers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 5 h 47 m | Show |
The Nationals have won 2 of 3 after a long stretch of futility. The Rangers are 5-5, taking a pair from the Phillies before losing to the Nat’s in the first game of their home series. Josiah Gray (6-4, 3.95) starts for the Nationals, and he has 4 straight premium appearances, with a miniscule ERA of 0.53 in that time. Gray has cut down dramatically on the long ball, allowing just 1 in June. He faces Matt Bush today. Bush, a reliever, will make a spot start in what will likely be a bullpen day for the Rangers. Both teams are middle of the pack in offense lately. The Rangers generally have the edge in relief pitching, but Washington’s pen has been better of late. The Rangers pen has faltered when relied upon for a protracted number of innings, allowing 30 runs in the last 3 games when expected to cover 4 or more straight innings. Washington is a small underdog today, but Gray has been more than effective lately. The Nationals are better on the road, and unfortunately for Texas, so are the Rangers. Look for the Nationals to take game 2 of the series, winning outright. |
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06-24-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Av’s at home were a force at home this season. They are better rested and probably healthier, if the rumors around the Lightning are true. Kadri is back and made an impact, and Kuemper looked much better, especially in the early going when the Avalanche were badly outshot. Even with an early goal against and the Lightning all in, the Avalanche managed to turn the tide, and were back to their dynamic selves by the finish. It was a demoralizing loss for the Lightning, and I don’t know if they have a road win in them, but they won’t give up easily, and there is always the Vasilevskiy factor to consider. The odds on the Av’s are very high. I am sticking with the total in Game Five. At home, with the better energy, and the Cup in sight, I expect Colorado to be on fire on offense from the opening faceoff. Game Five could be a more wide open affair. If the Av’s score early, the Lightning will be force to follow. Shop around and take the total to go over. |
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06-24-22 | Pirates +1.5 v. Rays | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 20 m | Show |
Don’t look now, but the Pirates are on a roll, winning 4 of their last 5 games. And putting up some decent numbers on offense. Meanwhile the Rays are struggling at just 3-7, and have some very serious injury issues on offense. The Rays are hitting just .228/.646 in the last two weeks, while the Pirates have “surged” to 25th place, with a .646 OPS. Pirates’ starter Keller (4.72 ERA) has turned his season around in June with three straight quality starts and an ERA of 2.08 over 17 innings. Young Rays’ left-hander Springs had 7 of 8 very impressive starts and an exceptionally low ERA, but returned to earth in his last appearance with a 4 run in 4+ inning effort. There has never been a bettter time to beat up on the Rays. The Pirates are a very serious underdog today, and with Keller and the team on a roll, I like them to at least stay close today. Take the Pirates on the run line, at + 1 ½. |
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06-24-22 | Mets v. Marlins UNDER 7.5 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -120 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
Off a sweep of the Rockies, the Marlins face the Mets for the second time in three series, this time at home. They were 1-2 in New York, with Alcantara, today’s starter, getting the only victory. He has been lights out this season, a true ace, pitching at least into the eighth in his last three starts, and giving up just 4 runs in 24+ innings. The 6-4 Mets struggled vs Houston, losing a pair, and haven’t been quite as steady on offense lately. Their OPS has slipped to just .633 in recent days, and they have had a few very short appearances from their starters, putting some pressure on the bullpen. Taijuan Walker has been an exception. After some mixed results, be is on a bit of a roll, allowing just 2 runs over 12+ innings in his last two starts, striking out 19! Both pitchers were successful in the last Mets/Marlins series. I am banking on similar results today. The total is relatively low today. I am wagering that it will go even lower. Take the Under. |
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06-23-22 | Phillies v. Padres -140 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -140 | 15 h 47 m | Show |
The Phillies have lost 3 of 4, scoring just 7 runs total. Ranger Suarez (5-4, 4.43) starts on Thursday and unlike last year he has been pretty average this season. In his last two starts he has as many walks as strikeouts, and has given up 7 runs, 5 earned, over 10 innings. He is up against one of the best in baseball at the moment, the Padres’ right-hander Joe Musgrove. At 8-0, with an ERA of 1.59, he has pitched 21 innings in June, giving up just 2 runs and lowering his ERA to 0.86 for the month. He is just off the Covid list. The hometown Padres (7-3) have yet to lose with Musgrove on the mound, and just swept the Diamondbacks. Led by a very hot Machado, the Padres are a surprise 2nd in offense over the last 2 weeks, are 10-3 as a home favorite, and are 16-7 vs left-handed pitching. The usually hard-hitting Phillies have had a rough week or so, hitting just .200, with an OPS of .608. Don’t look for them to get back on track vs Musgrove or the Padres’ bullpen either. I am wagering on the Padres to win on Thursday. |
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06-23-22 | Astros +114 v. Yankees | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 4 m | Show |
The Astros are on the road vs the Yankees today. They have been very hot recently, limiting the opposition to 3 runs or less in 6 of 7 games, and winning all 6 of them. They are a solid road team, with good success vs right- handed pitching. Both of these offenses are in the top ten for the season. The Astros have surpassed the Yankees in recent games, and have their very good bullpen surging to a very low ERA recently. Houston’s starter Lefty Framber Valdez (7-3, 2.78) has had a very solid season, but has given up 3, 3, and 2 runs in his last 3 games and seen his ERA climb somewhat in June to 3.50. He has pitched very well on the road. Right-hander Jameson Taillon (8-1, 2.70) has been equally impressive, but like Valdez, has seen his ERA climb in June, after sandwiching shutouts around a pair of 3 and 4 run outings. Taillon has not pitched for as much length lately, with just 14+ innings in his last three games. This would not be significant considering the Yankees’ formidable bullpen, but New York has some injuries in the relief pitcher column, and the pen has not been as sharp in recent games. The Yankees have been masterful at home, and formidable vs left handed pitching (18-7). This should be a tight well-pitched game today. The Yankees are a favorite, but I am going with the underdog today. The Astros recent offensive surge and much better bullpen will decide this one. Take the Astros to steal this one. |
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06-22-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 30 m | Show |
What a difference home ice has meant in this series! It would be easy to blame Kuemper for the Game Three loss; a .773 Save %is unacceptable at any time. A finger can also be pointed at the Av’s defense, who after a brilliant effort in Game 2, allowed double the number of shots and had obvious gaffes and missed coverages. More disciplined disciplined play is vital; the Av’s allowed far too many PP opportunities. Kudos must go to the Lightning. A proud and experienced team answered back in a big way, with a much better game from their offense and from Vasilevskiy. What can we expect in Game Four? The Av’s goaltending is the biggest issue, but I expect a much better effort from the Colorado defense. I don’t expect to see the Av’s held to 2 goals, Vasilevskiy or no. If the Lightning can deliver another effort similar to Game 3’s, a second home win is not out of the question. This is the first time in the play-offs that the Av’s have been shut down, and I expect a huge response tonight. A winner is very much up in the air, but I was burned badly in underestimating Tampa Bay at home, and I am not about to be struck twice. I am sticking to the total tonight. Take Game Four to go over. |
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06-22-22 | Tigers v. Red Sox -128 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 8 h 35 m | Show |
The 2-8 Tigers are struggling and down a pair in their road series vs the Red Sox. They are woeful on the road this year and very poor vs right-handed pitching. They have been hitting for average lately but just can’t seem to score enough runs for a victory. The Red Sox are the reverse at 8-2, and while their bats have cooled slightly, they are still getting the job done. They are a solid home team, and dominant (12-4) vs left handers. The Sox start Michael Wacha, who seems fully recovered from his brief stint on the IL. Three of his last four starts have been very sharp, and his ERA is just 1.98 in June. Wacha has been very sharp at home, with a 1.03 ERA in Fenway this season. His opponent, lefty Tariq Skubal (3.13 ERA) has had some very good starts this season, but he has gone downhill progressively in his last 2 starts, allowing 4, and then 5 earned runs. His ERA has climbed to 4.70 in June. He has had no run support in his last two starts; the Tigers have been shutout in both games. All roads point to a Red Sox victory, and I am taking the favorite today. The Tigers’ pen, one of their stronger suits this year, has not been successful of late. I’ll take the Red Sox’ offense any day. Take Boston for a home victory today. |
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06-22-22 | Phillies -130 v. Rangers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The Phillies have lost their last two games, including their road opener vs. the Rangers, but have their ace on the mound to set things straight. Wheeler (6-3, 2.69) struggled a bit early in the season, but has been much improved, especially in June. He has a 1.42 ERA for the month, with 20 strikeouts to just 2 base on balls and very low hit totals. The 6-4 Rangers can struggle at home and vs right-handed pitching this year. They have had little success vs Wheeler in the past, but have had much the better of the Phillies at home in the past. Jon Gray (4.27 ERA) starts for the Rangers. Gray also has had a good June, with two very good outings after a 5 run in 5 inning start. Opposing hitters have an average of just .193 for the month, although walks have been a bit of an issue. Gray has an ugly ERA in the first inning. Both starters have thrown for 6 or 7 innings lately, which is significant because neither bullpen has been very strong, especially in the last week. The Phillies have the edge on offense. Wheeler and to a slightly lesser degree, Gray are capable of a quality start, but both of the bullpens have managed to spoil a few good outings lately. Wheeler has had very good run support this season. I am wagering on a superior start from Wheeler, and the Phillies'offense and pen to pull through. Take Wednesday's game to go to the Phillies. |
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06-21-22 | Diamondbacks +118 v. Padres | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 53 m | Show |
This series got underway Monday with the Padres winning 4-1. But let’s not forget that before that, San Diego was swept out in Colorado over the weekend. I think Arizona, who has the better starting pitcher going on Tuesday, is a great value. It’s Zac Gallen going for the Diamondbacks here today. He’s got a 2.91 ERA and 0.98 WHIP. The team has won 8 of his 12 starts overall. This includes the last one where Gallen would go seven innings and allow just two runs. He only allowed two hits as well and issued no walks. Starting for San Diego here will be Sean Manaea. He allowed five runs in his last start and that came against the Cubs, who are not good. Not only did Manaea last only four innings, but he gave up two home runs as well. I don’t think Manaea can be trusted as a favorite, even a small one. Though they won yesterday, the big news for the Padres was losing Manny Machado to a sprained left ankle. The team hopes he won’t be out long-term, but he’s going to miss this game. Machado led not just the team in almost every offensive category, but all of baseball in both on base percentage and slugging. Take the underdog here. |
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06-21-22 | Cubs v. Pirates -150 | Top | 1-7 | Win | 100 | 10 h 38 m | Show |
The Pirates crushed the Cubs yesterday 12-1 and have now won back to back games for just the second time this month. Tuesday sees them sending out their best starting pitcher, Roansy Contreras, and he’s certainly due for a win, especially facing a Cubs team that has dropped 12 of its last 14 games. These are two of the worst teams in baseball. But I look at Contreras as the difference maker in this matchup. He is still winless after five starts, but the team did win the last time they had him on the mound and that was against St. Louis as a +175 underdog. It’s a much weaker opponent they’re facing here. In his first four starts, Contreras allowed only three runs and one was unearned. The Cubs are now being outscored by almost two full runs per game on the road - where they allow 5.7 per game. It’s also not helping that over the last 11 days, the offense has scored 1 or 0 runs six different times. Swarmer is the starter tonight for the Cubs. He’s allowed 10 runs over his previous two starts and tied a rather dubious franchise mark when he allowed six home runs against the Yankees. Play the favorite here. |
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06-20-22 | Avalanche -101 v. Lightning | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
It wasn’t just Vasilevskiy who looked off in Game 2. The Avs were relentless and so fast on the counter-attack that the LIghtning looked very old in pursuit of the puck. The Lightning and Vasilevskiy are expected to rebound at home, but 7-0 is a long way to come back from. The Av’s were great on defense, limiting Tampa to just 16 shots. Kuemper looked fine, if not heavily tested. The defense in front of him played an admirably tight game of play-off style hockey, and the team never let down as they did in game 1. Makar broke out in a big way on offense with a short handed and a power play goal. Could McKinnon be next? I don’t like the Lightnings’ chances in Game 3, irregardless of their past abilities to battle back. I do expect a better game from their often brilliant goalie, and I don’t expect another shutout from Kuemper, but if the Av’s keep playing with the same intensity, it will be a short series. Braden Point is not back in form. The Lightning looked tired, the Av’s, after that long lay off, looked very fresh and inspired, ready to get that monkey off their back. Take the Avalanche to win away. |
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06-20-22 | Avalanche v. Lightning OVER 6 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 109 | 13 h 4 m | Show |
After the Avs' shelling of Vasilevskiy and the Lightning on the road in Game two, a home-side rebound is expected from Tampa. No one expected seven goals against from the “best goalie on the planet” any more than a 16 shot shutout from Kuemper. The scoring chances in game two were completely lopsided; the Lightning will do everything in their power to slow Colorado down on home ice, and with the final change will at least have the player match up they want. I expect a better game from Vasilevskiy and tighter play from Tampa, but the Lightning are going to be awfullyy hard to slow down. Game 2 was a masterful demonstration of defense by the Avs. I expect them to attempt more of the same disciplined play on defense, but I am sure the Lightning will be better in Game three and test Kuemper more often. A total of over 5.5 is available. In this case, take the over. |
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06-19-22 | Marlins v. Mets UNDER 7 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 11 m | Show |
The Marlins are just 1-4 in their last 5 games, but they start the ace on Sunday to turn things around. Alcantara (6-2, 1.69 ERA) has been as impressive as anyone this season, pitching for length (23 + innings/L3 games), and holding a 0.76 ERA in June. He gives the Marlins a chance to win every outing, and the Marlins to date have responded well. Bassitt starts for the Mets. After a month of poor to fair outings, Bassitt re-found his form in his last start, throwing an 8 inning shutout. Bassitt claims to have made the necessary changes and has had some great appearances this season. The Mets’ pen has been excellent lately. While Alcantara may not need much support, he won’t likely get it anyway. The Marlins’ pen has been beyond bad lately, but they do seem to save their best games for Alcantara’s starts. The Marlins are well down the list in offense for the season, and are hitting particularly poorly, with a sub-.600 OPS in their last week. I expect Alcantara to continue with his present form, limiting a good Mets’ offense for much of the game. I expect Bassitt to respond with another solid start as well. We haven’t seen an over in Alcantara’s last 5 starts. I don’t think we will seen one on Sunday. Take the Marlins and Mets to go under. |
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06-19-22 | Yankees -147 v. Blue Jays | Top | 9-10 | Loss | -147 | 2 h 6 m | Show |
The visiting Yankees are 9-1 in their last 10 games, and while their bats might have cooled off slightly in the Rays series, they thumped the Jays in the first game of the series, and got to a very tough Manoah yesterday. The pitching has been impressive, and today’s starter is one of the reasons why. Severino (2.80 ERA) has been mostly very steady and a strikeout machine this year. He has an ERA of just 0.69 in June. He did give up 3 ER in just 4.2 innings vs the Jays the last time they met, not one of his better starts. The 5-5 Jays are a streaky team and have seen their potent offense drop off recently. They have very serious and unexpected pitching issues at the moment in both starters and relievers. Today’s starter Kikuchi (4.80 ERA) has not been effective recently, with short starts and a very high opposing batting average of .359. The Jays’ relievers has not been getting the job done, and cannot match the Yankees top of the line bullpen. The Yankees are just a modest favorite today. This very likely will be an easy win for them. Take the Yankees to win. Again. |
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06-18-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 0-7 | Loss | -106 | 10 h 32 m | Show |
What do I expect in game two of the Stanley Cup final? A tighter game, with Tampa Bay attempting to control more of the Av's "turn on the afterburners" style of play. A better game from Vasilevskiy, who also took a game to get going vs. the Rangers. The Lightning allowed 37 shots and Vasilevskiy was under .900 in save %. The Lightning can't win with that kind of performance from their star attraction. For the Av's, they will need to avoid a 2nd period slump, but they held the Lightning to just 23 shots, so they can continue with more of the same, and hope for a better performance from Kuemper. Kuemper had a long lay-off previous to Game one, and is capable of a much better game. It is easy to underestimate the Av's defense. They were 9th in the regular season, and started to play a tough play-off style in meaningful games late in the regular season. The Av's are a moderate favorite today, but if Vasilevskiy plays to his capabilities, an Avalanche win is certainly not assured. I can't see the Avs breaking this game open, and I expect Kuemper to rebound. The best bet today is still the total. Take the Avs and Lightning to go under 6 goals. |
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06-18-22 | Rays -146 v. Orioles | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 5 h 35 m | Show |
The Rays have lost 4 straight, including the opener vs the Orioles last night. The issue has been their hitting; they have allowed just 9 runs in their last4 games, but have scored a paltry 4 times. Today’s starter, Jeffrey Springs (1.45 ERA) now has 7 starts under his belt since switching from reliever to starter, and has yet to give up more than 2 runs. Now reasonably stretched out out, he has pitched into the 6th in his last 2 starts, giving up a total of 0 runs. The 6-4 Orioles just took a series from the Jays, but today’s starter Kyle Bradish (6.86 ERA) is not their best bet for a second straight win. He showed some promise in early June, but was roughed up by the Jays in his last game. Opposing batters are teeing off to a tune of .333. The Orioles’ bats have shown some clout lately, but have and likely will continue to struggle vs Springs. The Rays’ relievers are in “total shut down” mode with an ERA of 1.83 in their last 10 games. The Orioles pen has been barely OK at 4.08 ERA lately. I am on the Rays to rebound today and open up on offense vs Bradish and the Orioles. Take the Rays to win outright. |
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06-18-22 | Braves -160 v. Cubs | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -160 | 7 h 40 m | Show |
The Cubs broke two streaks in their surprise 1-0 win on Friday; their own very lengthy losing streak and the Braves’ even longer win streak. Left-hander Justin Steele (4.33 ERA) tries for two straight Cubs win, and if he continues as he has pitched in June, it could happen. He has had a pair of 7 inning, 1 run outings lately after some rough starts in the end of May. He faces right-hander, Kyle Wright (7-3, 2.57 ERA) who has been a very effective starter for the Braves this year. Wright has given up 2, 3, and 0 runs in his last 3 starts, with a total of 22 innings pitched. He is a strikeout master this year, with 80 to date. With the exception of Friday, the Cubs’ pitching has been profoundly bad. Steele has been better than anyone else, but turning things over to the bullpen has been fraught lately. The Braves, again with the exception of Friday, have been tearing it up on offense, and have an exceptionally good relief corps at the moment. It woulddn't surprise me if Steele matches up well with Wright, but sooner or later the game will have to go to the relievers. Take Atlanta to win outright. |
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06-17-22 | Twins -121 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 2-7 | Loss | -121 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
The 6-4 Twins are on a tear lately on offense, hitting .280/.824 OPS in their last ten games. Today’s starter Smeltzer (2.38 ERA) has been a good news story for the Twins. With 6 starts under his belt this season, he has taken a step forward and held batters to a .203 batting average. The Twins have roughed up some good starters lately and the D-backs’ Bumgarner could be next in line. May was a cruel month for him, giving up 15 runs and 7 HR. The poor play continued into June, although he bounced back in his last start. He hasn’t thrown for his customary length lately. The D-backs are not a good hitting team, and this game will likely come down to the better offense. We seem, unfortunately, to be witnessing the beginning of the end of the line for MadBum. Smeltzer, now healthy, has been much better than expected. Go with the favorite today and take the Twins to win. |
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06-16-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 103-90 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
We’re rolling with Boston here to keep the season alive and force a deciding Game 7 in the NBA Finals. This will be the first time the Celtics are coming off back to back losses since the end of March, which was the regular season. They had been 7-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs off a loss, before losing Game 5 at Golden State, 104-94 as four-point underdogs. Tonight, I think we’ll see the Celtics shoot a lot better than they did in Game 5. They were just 41.3% from the field on Monday, 34.4% from three. Being back at home obviously helps in that regard. However, his game being in Boston may help the Celtics out more defensively. They allow only 103.1 points/game at home. Golden State’s scoring defense goes to 108.9 on the road, up from 103.0 at home. Surprisingly, the Warriors are only 26-24 SU on the road. They will probably shoot better from three-point land tonight compared to Game 5 (when they were just 9 of 40 as a team and Steph Curry was 0 for 9). But that alone does not guarantee success. The Celtics have not lost three straight games since late December. They are at home, with their season on the line, tonight. When off a double digit loss, they are 10-3 ATS this season. Also, they are a perfect 5-0 SU and ATS in the playoffs when trailing in the series. Lay the points in Game 6! |
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06-16-22 | Phillies -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 10-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 10 m | Show |
The Nationals were swept by the Braves, giving up an average of 9 runs a game in the series. They now face the high-flying Phillies at home. Washington has serious issues with their starting pitching, with many very short poor starts lately. Their bullpen has not been effective and is overused of late. Thursday’s starter, left-hander Patrick Corbin, has a couple of 6 inning starts at least. If you catch Corbin on a good day, he can give you a quality start, but the reverse is also true. At 3-8 and with an ERA of 6.65, there have been all to many poor outings this year. The Phillies are a top five offense for the season, and are even better lately, with an OPS of .876. Today’s starter Wheeler (2.83 ERA) is in good form of late, with an ERA of 1.61 in his last 4 starts. He has more than a strikeout an inning to date, and consistently gives 6 or more innings. The Phillies’ bullpen always seems to be sore point, and that is certainly true lately. They are at least rested, and have been able to finish when a starter gives them some innings. Look for the Phillies’ offense to run up the score vs Corbin and the bullpen to hold on post-Wheeler. The Phillies are a heavy favorite today, but I am comfortable taking them on the run line at – 1 ½. |
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06-16-22 | Guardians v. Rockies +1.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
The 4-6 Rockies are back in Coors Field after a seven game road trip. The Rockies at home are a different beast. They win more often and their offense is unbelievably better; 4th in the league at home, and a distant 28th when on the road. They have lost 2 straight to the Guardians, and send out right-hander Chad Kuhl to stop the bleeding. Kuhl was badly roughed up in his last start by the Padres, and has been uneven this year, although his two previous starts were each 6 inning quality appearances. Kuhl is the rare pitcher who, so far, pitches better at home in Colorado. Young right-hander Triston McKenzie starts for the Guardians. His season has been solid, especially early, but can also be uneven. Opponents are hitting just .174 against him, but his June results have been disturbing, especially the HR totals. He has given up 10 dingers in his last 5 games after allowing just 1 in May. Not a good look for a game in Colorado. The Guardians are just middle of the pack on offense for the season, consistently around the .707 OPS. Their pitching has been very good, including relievers, of late. The Rockies’ pen, usually in the cellar, has been surprisingly effective lately. While the Guardians are a favorite, I am concerned about McKenzie’s home run totals and his negative trajectory this month. I expect the Rockies to have some success vs McKenzie, and avoid the sweep. Kuhl and the Rockies will at least keep this game close. A Colorado win would not surprsie me. Take the Rockies on the Run line, at + 1 1/2. |
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06-16-22 | Padres -1.5 v. Cubs | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
Matt Swarmer, the Cubs’ rookie, has 3 starts under his belt. Two of them were impressive, and then he met up with the Yankees, and gave up 6 earned runs in five innings, allowing, count’em, 6 solo home runs. Swarmer now has given up 9 home runs in 3 games. It will be interesting to see if the rookie can regroup. He can’t look for much support from the Cubs’ bullpen today. They have staggered to an ERA of over ten in their last 10 games The Cubs face one of the best today in the Padres’ Joe Musgrove. With an ERA of 1.15 in his last 4 starts, he has been all things this year, pitching for effectiveness, consistency and length (20 innings pitched/ L3 starts). The Padres bullpen, good as usual, is clipping along with an ERA of just 2.17 in their last 10 games. While the Padres aren’t usually the hardest hitting team, they have been tearing it up lately, climbing into the top ten in offense with an OPS of .789, just slightly ahead of the Cubs. On the verge of a sweep, they have outscored the Cubs 35 to 11 in the first three games of this series. The Cubs are 0-9. Musgrove and the Padres show no sign of slowing down and are a heavy favorite today. Take them on the run line at - 1 1/2. They should be fine for the extra runs. |
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06-15-22 | Lightning v. Avalanche OVER 6 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 17 m | Show |
The Avalanche are potent and fast on offense, well-rested, and have run over their opponents to date. The only issue on the horizon, other than the loss of Kadri, is their goal-tending. Kuemper has been nothing special to date, and could be too rested as we saw with Vasilevskiy in game one of the Rangers series. Speaking of Vasilevskiy, the Lightning net-minder came back and proved his worth in the rest of that series, and is the largest stumbling block between the Avs and the Stanley Cup. The Avs are a much better team on offense, and will exert far more pressure on the Lightnings’ defense and goal-tending. Tampa Bay limited the Rangers to under 25 shots in games 5 and 6. The Avs were over 40 shots in every game vs. the Oilers, and will have more than their share of attempts on the Tampa Bay net. The Lightning are the veterans in the playoff final series, but the Avalanche have under-achieved in past years and will have all the desire in the world coming in to this game. Colorado has been a monster on home ice. The Lightning were not prolific in goals-for vs. the Rangers, but faced a standout goaltender. I expect they will have more success vs. Kuemper, especially in Game one. Take the Over between the Lightning and Avalanche on Wednesday night. |
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06-15-22 | Braves -1.5 v. Nationals | Top | 8-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
The Atlanta Braves have come alive in a big way, and, while their hitting is top notch lately, they’ve also done it with their pitching. Spencer Strider made the switch from reliever to starter in late May. He gave up 3 runs in the first inning of start #1, but has only given up two other runs in 13 innings since. He pitched into the 6th inning and shut out the Pirates in his last start. He likely won’t be fully stretched out, but he’ll get the support of a sizzling bullpen, with an ERA of 1.57 in their last 10 games. The Nationals were crushed by the Braves in their last two starts and are getting nothing but hard luck from their relievers and starters. Fedde is on the mound for the Nationals, and can pitch well, but has not shown it lately, giving up 13 runs in 12 innings in his last three starts. His last outing was his best lately, but he still gave up 3 runs while pitching into the 6th. The Nationals have been middling in offense lately, but are dead last in pitching effectiveness. They are 12-20 at home. The Braves are 3rd in offense at .292/.917 OPS in the last two weeks. They have had considerable success against Fedde. Look for them to extend their streak on Wednesday. Take Atlanta on the run line; They will be good for the extra runs. |
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06-15-22 | Rays v. Yankees UNDER 7 | Top | 3-4 | Push | 0 | 7 h 23 m | Show |
The Yankees lead the tough AL East by a solid margin and knocked off the Rays in a tight game on Wednesday. It could be another pitcher’s duel with two of the best meeting on the mound. Rays’ lefty McClanahan (1.86 ERA) has been dominant this year, including holding the Yankees to just 1 run over 6 innings in May. His last outing was a 2 hit 8 inning shutout vs the Cardinals. He faces Nestor Cortes (1.96 ERA), also a lefty, and also having a fine season. Cortes is off his worst start of the season, a 4 runs in 4+ innings start that was most uncommon. Look for Cortes to bounce back today. Both teams have excellent bullpens, performing very well recently. The Rays are not a powerhouse on offense this year or recently, with a .666 OPS in the last two weeks. Compare to the Yankees’ .282 BA and .910 OPS in the same time period. Things do even up vs. left-handed pitching somewhat. The Rays have been weak on the road this year. It is hard to argue with the Yankees’ offense but if anyone can hold them down it will be McClanahan. Another low total seems likely today, and considering the respective bullpens’ prowess, the complete game total seems the best option. Take the Yankees and Rays to go under today. |
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06-14-22 | A's v. Red Sox -1.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 10 h 15 m | Show |
Boston has gotten itself back into the playoff mix by going 9-2 in June. But they are still only fourth in their own division where they don’t have much chance of catching the hated Yankees. So it’s probably “Wild Card or bust” for the BoSox and they need to continue winning. Lucky for them, they are facing the A’s to start the week. Out in Oakland, the Red Sox swept a three-game series earlier this month. They outscored the A’s 20-4 in those three games. Boston has posted four shutouts during their 9-2 run. I know that two of them were 1-0 games and they have two more one-run wins this month as well. But I think we’re “safe” playing the run line tonight. Quite frankly, I don't think this game will be close. The A’s have just one win in June. They will start Koenig, whose first start saw him give up four runs in four innings. The A’s are also a terrible team offensively, ranking last in average, last in on base percentage, 29th in slugging and 29th in runs per game. I do think the fact the Red Sox haven’t needed many runs to win lately bodes well. They are hitting .262 as a team at Fenway, so they should put up a decent number tonight. Pivetta should handle the A’s lineup again as he threw seven shutout innings the last time he faced them. In 8 of his 12 starts, Pivetta has allowed three runs or less. He had 11 strikeouts in his last start. Lay the -1.5! |
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06-14-22 | Braves v. Nationals +1.5 | Top | 10-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
The Braves are red hot. They won their 12th straight game last night, beating Washington 9-5. The win streak has last year’s World Series Champs firmly back in the Wild Card mix in the National League. As for the Nationals, things aren’t looking so good. They are in last place in the East Division and already there’s a six game gap between them and fourth place. I’d be shocked if they escaped the basement. But surprisingly, my numbers say to give the Nats a try today, albeit on the run line. On the mound, Jackson Tetreault is set to make his big league debut. There's the "unknown factor" here, which may throw Atlanta for a loop. I also really like the odds we're getting, while still being able to play the run line. Washington hits lefties pretty well, so I expect them to get the job done against Max Fried. Earlier in the year, the Nationals beat Fried as +195 underdogs on the money line. Note that Washington may change starters prior to game time. I’m rolling with them regardless. I’m more confident in their ability to hit lefties than whomever the starter is. Also, the Nationals’ bullpen has been a lot better at home so far and the Braves just lost All Star Ozzie Albies to a broken foot. Take the run line (+1.5) here as we’re getting solid odds. |
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06-14-22 | Pirates v. Cardinals -155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 23 m | Show |
Can’t see the Cardinals losing to the Pirates in the first game of today’s doubleheader. The Redbirds are already 6-1 vs. the Bucs in 2022 and won yesterday’s opener by a score of 7-5. The home team actually needed to rally from a five-run deficit, but the chances of Pittsburgh taking an early 5-0 lead for a second straight day would seem low. The Pirates might be the third place team in the NL Central, but they are actually quite bad. They have a -93 run differential, which is the worst in baseball. There’s a huge gap between the top two and bottom three in the Central Division. St. Louis leads the way with a 35-27 record. As a home favorite of -125 to -175, the Cards are 9-3 this year. So I’m not worried about laying the juice. Pittsburgh has lost seven straight games and was the underdog in six of them. Brubaker isn’t a good starter. The Pirates’ righty is 0-6 in his 12 trips to the mound. His last win came on August 24th of last year. He is 0-5 with a 6.75 ERA lifetime vs. St. Louis. Liberatore starts this first game for the Cardinals. He’s made just one start at home thus far, but didn’t give up any runs. In fact, he allowed only two hits over five innings. Play ST. LOUIS in Game 1. |
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06-13-22 | Padres -122 v. Cubs | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
The Cubs have lost 6 straight, and were just swept by the Yankees. At home vs. the Padres, they start lefty Justin Steele (4.79 ERA). Just 1-5 this season, Steele has had a couple of very poor short starts, but otherwise keeps ER down to 2-3. Okay, sometimes 4. Bases on balls have been an issue. His last start was a fine 7 inning, 1 run effort. He faces Yu Darvish (3.61 ERA) who can be very good (4 shut outs to date), but is not without sub-par outings. He has had 3 poor appearances, all on the road. The first inning has been a struggle. The Padres are 7-3, and are better on the road than at home. They didn’t do much damage in their last 3 games, just 6 runs scored total, and have struggled on offense much of the season. They do win at a better clip vs. lefties. They have a good bullpen, very good in their last ten games at 3.00 ERA. The opposing Cubs relievers have struggled to a 5.33 ERA in the same time frame. The Cubs can usually hit, but haven’t scored more than 4 runs in their last 6 games. They are poor on the road and just 15-26 vs. right-handed pitching. I am on Darvish and the Padres on Monday. I have more faith in his abilities than Steele’s and there is the Padres’ road success and the Cubs’ bullpen to consider. Take the Padres to win outright. |
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06-13-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -3.5 | Top | 94-104 | Win | 100 | 36 h 36 m | Show |
Neither of our two NBA Finalists have suffered consecutive defeats since the playoffs began. If that pattern holds, that means Boston will win this series in seven games. But that would also mean the Celtics win twice on the road. I don’t see that happening. Look for Golden State to take a 3-2 series lead Monday night as they are back home. The Warriors have lost at home only 11 times all year. Game 1 of this series was one of those 11, but it was also the only home game they’ve lost during the playoffs. They are +10.5 points per game for the year at home and as I’ve mentioned before, defense improves for the Warriors here as they allow just 103.2 points per game compared to 108.9 on the road. The Warriors have played 11 home games in the playoffs. Not only have they won 10 of them, but eight of those wins have come by double digits. They’ve covered five of the last six. Steph Curry continues to be other-worldly. He’s averaging 34.3 points per game in the NBA Finals and has made 25 threes in four games. He’s shooting almost 50 percent from behind the arc. Curry’s supporting cast should help out more in Game 5 as role players typically shoot better at home. This is a huge game where it’s very likely the winner goes on to take the series. I just see Curry and Golden State as being more likely to step up. Lay the points. |
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06-13-22 | Orioles v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 1-11 | Win | 100 | 11 h 22 m | Show |
The Jays have owned the Orioles, Mondays opponent. Their bats have come alive, especially when Manoah, today’s starter, is on the mound. Manoah has been as good as anyone this year, with a 1.81 ERA over 10 starts. At 7-1 he has not just effective,but consistent, with no poor starts to date. The Orioles have won a pair but face a much tougher opponent in the Jays. Looking at their opposition, it has been a while since they faced a starter of Manoah’s caliber. Their rookie Bradish (6.45 ERA) starts on Monday. He generally has not been sharp, and won’t likely pitched for length, but has he had run support! He has won 3 straight games, and O’s have slugged 30 runs in his last three outings. Do not expect similar results against Manoah. The Orioles have had a good bullpen lately and they are going to need it on Monday. Manoah pitches for length, Bradish doesn’t. The Jays are a huge favorite and have one of the best offenses in the league when clicking. They are averaging almost 8 runs scored a game, far more than will likely be needed. Take the Jays on the Run line to win, at – 1 ½. |
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06-12-22 | Rays -120 v. Twins | Top | 6-0 | Win | 100 | 7 h 46 m | Show |
The Rays have lost two straight on the road against the hard-hitting Twins, and will rely on left-hander Springs to avoid the sweep. With eight starts now under his belt, the rookie has impressed, with a 1.62 ERA. He began the season as a reliever but is now stretched out to 5 or 6 innings. His last start was a 6 inning shutout over the Cardinals. The Rays can expect solid support from their relief corps, sparkling as usual, with a 1.78 ERA in their last ten games. Starting for the Twins is rookie righty Sands, who has even less experience than Springs. He has potential but has yet to show it in the Bigs, allowing a run an inning on average in his first 3 starts, and lasting just 9+ innings. The Twins will have to rely heavily on their bullpen on Sunday, but their relievers have been very soft lately with a leaky 5.23 ERA in their last ten games. The combination of Sands and the Twins relievers ended in 10 runs in his last appearance. For the Twins it seems to be win big or lose bigger lately. Their bats have been very hot, with a monster OPS of .983 in their last week, but do not hit left-handers with the same authority. They have owned the Rays lately but Sunday will be an exception. Look for Tampa Bay to rally and avoid the broom. Rays to win. |
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06-11-22 | Red Sox +112 v. Mariners | Top | 6-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
At 8-2 in their last 10 games, the Red Sox have beaten up on the Mariners recently and out-dueled them last night. Today’s Sox starter, Wacha (1.99 ERA) had a rough start vs. the White Sox, but has bounced back twice since. His last time out was a 3 hit, complete game shutout. Even with that poor start, opposing batters are managing just .172 against him. Wacha faces a promising young Mariners starter in Georg Kirby (3.38 ERA). With 6 starts under his belt, he has put up decent numbers and a ton of strikeouts. Still, he has had a couple of poor starts thrown in including one vs these same Red Sox, his worst appearance to date. The Sox have faced Kirby just once, but Story has had his number early. While Boston isn’t hitting at quite the same torrid pace of some weeks ago, they still have a formidable offensive lineup. They are 7-1 in June and have a solid road record. The Mariners are hitting well of late, but oddly, neither team has a winning record vs. right-handers. The Red Sox bullpen has been terrific lately; the Mariners’ solid but not as impressive as the Sox’. The Mariners are favored today, but I can’t see it. They are not dominant as a home team, and Kirby has faltered more often than Wacha. Take the Red Sox to win on the road tonight. |
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06-11-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
The Lightning roll into Game 6 a heavy favorite, and are looking to keep that home ice advantage intact and finish the Rangers, but I can’t see New York rolling over easily. Shesterkin has perhaps been out-dueled lately by Vasilevskiy but is still a formidable goaltender. Games 4 and 5 were not easy wins for the Lightning; the young Rangers’ side has come a long way in the playoffs this year, and should not be counted out today. What we saw in game 5 was a tighter effort from both teams and a significant drop in shot totals, not to mention the 4th straight low total. I took the Lightning to win in Game 5, but won’t play them on today’s odds. With the same total line available today, I am back with the under. I expect game 6 to be even tighter and definitely more disciplined. Take the Rangers and Lightning to go under the total. |
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06-11-22 | Rangers +133 v. White Sox | Top | 11-9 | Win | 133 | 6 h 31 m | Show |
Rangers are 1-3 on their recent road trip but have stellar lefty Martin Perez (1.56 ERA) on the mound to turn things around. He has pitched 20 innings, giving up only 3 runs, in his last three starts. With just 1 HR allowed this season, he has also been very good on the road. He faces White Sox right-hander Giolito. Giolito has double the ERA and has given up more hits and homeruns that is desirable this season. The White Sox aren’t a strong home team this year, even as a favorite. Neither team had been particularly strong on offense although the Rangers have the edge for power lately. Both pens have also been ok lately. The difference on Saturday will be the superior performance of Perez. I expect a longer and more stingy outing when compared to Giolito. The Rangers are underdogs, but I believe they will steal this one. Rangers to win outright! |
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06-10-22 | Warriors v. Celtics UNDER 214.5 | Top | 107-97 | Win | 100 | 12 h 18 m | Show |
OK. So we’re looking to make it 4-0 in the NBA Finals tonight and I like the Under. Both teams have seen a decline in their respective three-point shooting percentages each game and I don’t see the same kind of high-scoring first half (124 points) we had in the last game. Boston playoff games have averaged just 208.8 points. Game 2 of this series, which they lost, was well below that number. But the two Celtics wins over the Warriors both went Over. This despite them holding Golden State to an average of 104 points in those two games. The Celtics have averaged 118 points in their two wins in the series. Win or lose, I don’t think they’re hitting that number tonight. The Warriors allow just 105.6 points per game off a loss, which is slightly lower than their overall season average. During their entire playoff run, Boston has rarely seen two straight games go Over the total. The Over hit each of the first three games in the Eastern Conference Finals (low totals), but that’s the ONLY Over streak for the Celtics in the playoffs. Since that run of three straight Overs in the last round, the last three times the Celtics have been off an Over, the games have seen just 184, 196 and 195 total points scored. Play the Under. |
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06-10-22 | Diamondbacks v. Phillies OVER 8.5 | Top | 5-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 23 m | Show |
The Phillies are on a tear at 7-0, and have roughed up some very good starters in that stretch. In addition to a potent offense, their bullpen has, for a change, been very effective with an ERA of 2.34 over their last 10 games. The Diamond-backs, light-hitting as usual, are just 2-6, with an extra poor stretch from their relievers (6.19 ERA/ L10 games). The Phillies’ starter today, Kyle Gibson, has been hit hard in May and June. While he is better at home, opposing batters are hitting over .300 in the last month. Gallen starts for the Diamondbacks. With just one really poor start for the season, he has been very good on the road. After a stellar April, we’ve seen his earned runs total creep up, mainly due to the long ball. Gallen allowed 0 HR in his first five starts and 4 in his last 5. I favor Gallen as a starter today, but the Phillies have been a tough out recently and the Diamondbacks’ pen is a shambles. Gibson is struggling, allowing 5 runs over just 3+ innings in his last start. All things considered, I am on the over today. The Phillies’ offense vs a poor bullpen could get ugly, and even the weak-hitting D-backs should have their chances against Gibson. |
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06-09-22 | Lightning -119 v. Rangers | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The Lightning looked much more impressive in game 4 and got to Shesterkin for three goals twice in their home starts. They need at least one road victory against the Ranger for a series win, and with Vasilevskiy now playing the way he is capable of (.971 and .933 SV% in his last two starts), tonight could be the night. The Rangers have held serve in this series but face an improving veteran Tampa Bay team, and now have some injuries to consider. While Vasilevskiy appeared rusty after the longish break, Shesterkin has played a lot of hockey and faced a ton of shots, so a fatigue factor must be considered. I’m on the Lightning to break the home ice voodoo tonight and win away. |
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06-08-22 | Warriors v. Celtics -3.5 | Top | 100-116 | Win | 100 | 30 h 25 m | Show |
The best time to take the Celtics, at least in the playoffs, has been when they are coming off a loss. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, they are a perfect 6-0 straight up and against the spread coming off a loss. Look for that trend to continue in Game 3 of the NBA Finals. After exploding in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Celtics fell apart in the third quarter of Game 2. They ended up losing 107-88, their largest margin of defeat in the entire playoffs (previous worst loss was 12). The team shot 37.5% in Game 2. At home, they’ll easily improve that number. Three-point shooting has been good in both games. Interestingly, everyone except Jayson Tatum seemed to shoot well in the first game. In the second game, Tatum was the only one to really show up. I’m looking for a more balanced effort in Game 3. Golden State is an average team on the road, 25-23 with 109.1 points per game scored and 109.0 allowed. They allow six more points per game on the road than they allow at home, which is a big difference. Speaking of defense, look for Boston to do a better job on Steph Curry in this game. The Celtics are 9-2 SU and ATS off a double digit loss this year. I figured that the Warriors wouldn’t lose both games at home, which is why I was on them in Game 2. But they’ve lost three of four on the road and aren’t winning both games in Boston. Lay the points. |
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06-08-22 | Yankees -1.5 v. Twins | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 1 m | Show |
Winners of 7 straight, the Yankees pitchers have an ERA of under 2 in the last two weeks. They’ve just finished a stretch of 5 straight games when they gave up 1 or less runs PER GAME. Left hander Cortes is leading the pack. Opposing batters hit just .158 vs Cortes in May. He is not overpowering, just wildly effective, giving up just 2 runs over 15 innings in his last two starts. The Yankees won’t need much from their relievers with Cortes on the mound, but if they do, there is no bullpen better at the moment. The Twins have been hovering around .500 lately, with pretty average hitting and a pitching staff, both starters and relievers, with inflated numbers. Chris Archer is not his old self, but he has been reasonably effective in very short starts this season. Don’t expect more than 5 innings from Archer. While his last start was a 5 inning 1 run effort, his ERA has drifted up over 5 in the last month. The Twins will likely dip into the pen fairly early, and an ERA close to 5.00 lately is not a good look against a team offense as hot as the Yankees’. Did I say how hot? Try .297 BA and a .945 OPS. The Yankees are obviously favored, but are a fine wager on the runline. Take the Yankees - 1 1/2! |
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06-08-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
It is the Nationals’ Josiah Gray vs Miami’s ace Alcantara in the second game of the Marlins’ home series. Gray (4.71 ERA) has pitched well in his last two starts, but has had some ugly outings this year. He has faced the Marlins twice this season, allowing 3 and 4 runs over 11 innings total, but is 4-0 on the road. Alcantara is on a tear, with three straight victories and a sparkling 1.81 ERA. He has allowed just 1 run with 29 Ks over 24 innings in those three starts. You really couldn’t ask for more. Both teams struggle for wins, but Alcantara tends to earn all of his. Gray has had some solid run support in a number of his victories, and that will likely not be the case today. The Marlins are hitting surprisingly well in their last 10 games, especially vs right-handers, and better than the Nationals in that period. Both bullpens have been very poor but Alcantara will very likely pitch later into the game than Gray. With some especially short outings by the Nationals’ starters lately, Washington could be in a real bind for relievers today. It seems it is an underdog day today. I am taking the Marlins on the Run line. I believe they are good for the extra runs. |
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06-07-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
The Lightning will be buoyed up by the last minute victory, and are a large favorite vs. the Rangers on Tuesday. For another win they will have to shut down a hot Zibanejad, and put a few past Shesterkin, and there are no guarantees of either. I am looking for another big game from Vasilevskiy and banking on another low total. |
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06-07-22 | Mariners v. Astros -1.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 32 m | Show |
The Astros failed me last night. But I’m so confident in them bouncing back today that I’ll gladly lay the -1.5 on the run line. Benches cleared in the ninth, but it was Seattle that dealt the real blow, winning 7-4. But if you look at the box score, you’ll realize Houston had more hits (10 to 7) and that some more timely hitting (they were 1 for 9 when they had runners in scoring position) could have gotten them the “W.” The loss was just the second for Houston over its past eight games. They lead the American League West with a 35-20 mark and they have only played 21 home games (14-7). Seattle is 13-20 on the road and remains five games below .500 overall. Justin Verlander should dominate the M’s tonight. He has a 0.80 WHIP this year and has lost only one of his last seven starts. That one loss did come to Seattle. But Verlander took a no-hitter into the sixth inning in his last start. For Seattle, Chris Flexen is still winless away from home and comes into tonight’s start sporting a 4.55 ERA. He started opposite Verlander on May 27th and got the win, but is 1-5 with a 5.26 ERA in seven career starts vs. Houston. Lay the -1.5. |
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06-07-22 | Nationals v. Marlins -174 | Top | 2-12 | Win | 100 | 11 h 15 m | Show |
The Nats have won three in a row, but those games were against the Reds. As the road team, they’re up against it here with Adon (1-9, 5.98 ERA) on the mound, facing a Miami team that’s beaten them in five of six previous meetings this season. Miami was competitive with San Francisco over the weekend, splitting the four-game series. The Marlins may be eight games below .500 right now, but they have scored more runs than they’ve allowed this season. Cabrera will start tonight’s game for the home team. He had an outstanding season debut last week, tossing six scoreless innings and allowing just one hit, in Colorado no less! Washington’s pitching has been dreadful so far in ‘22 and the team is 1-10 with Adon starts. Adon has made it past the fifth only two times and on the road he’s 0-5 with a 6.46 ERA and 1.77 WHIP. So far, in six head to head battles this year, the Marlins have outscored the Nationals 28-13. They are the better team playing at home. Even though they’ve won three straight, I’d still consider the Nats one of the worst teams in baseball. Lay the price. |
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06-06-22 | Mets v. Padres +100 | Top | 11-5 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 52 m | Show |
The Mets are a very sharp 8-2, off a pair of wins vs the Dodgers. Meanwhile the home-town Padres took 3 of 4 against the Brewers, earning a pair of shutouts. Padres’ left-hander Snell has returned from the IL, and now has three starts under his belt. He has been progressively better in each of the three, and appears to be rounding in to shape, with a 6 inning, 2 run outing in his last start. He faces Carrasco who has a sparkling record of 6-1, but has also been uneven, ranging from an 8 inning shutout to a very rude 8 runs over 3+ innings. Most of Carrasco’s poor starts have been on the road, and opposing hitters are averaging a lusty .283. The Mets are 3rd in offense, hitting for average and power this year, but drop all the way to 15th vs left- handers. The Padres have not been busting out on offense lately but they have had very solid pitching across the board. I am on the Padres on Monday. Snell is due, the Mets are on the road & below .500 vs lefties, and Carrasco is a bit of a question mark on these days. Take the Padres to win.. |
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06-06-22 | Mariners v. Astros -160 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -160 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The Mariners took 2 of 3 from the Astros in their home series in May. Now they travel to Houston where they have had very little success in the past. Left-hander Robbie Ray starts for the Mariners today. He has been consistently average this season. He still gets his strikeouts, but his ERA for May was 5.24. He has struggled on the road this year. The Astros are 7-3, and very tough to beat at home. While they are surprisingly just average on offense this year, they are a very robust 14-4 vs. left-handers. Today’s starter, Javier, has only 6 starts this year. He had one poor outing, but otherwise has been exceptional, giving up just 2 runs in his last 3 starts. His only negative is that he doesn’t generally throw for length. No matter. The Astros have the best bullpen in the league, and it is in fine form at the moment. The Mariners’ pen has struggled to an ERA of over 4.00 for the season and are just 4.23 over their last 10 games. The Astros are very tough vs lefties, and Ray, this year at least, cannot be considered a premier starter. The Mariners have had no previous success vs Javier, little success in Houston, and there is no comparison between the two teams’ relief corps. Take the Astros to win today. |
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06-06-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers UNDER 7 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -120 | 9 h 43 m | Show |
The Avs can finish the Oilers with a road win tonight. Injuries have now become an issue in the series. The Avalanche have weathered the loss of Kuemper, as Francouz has filled in very well. Missing Kadri and Burakovsky hurts, but the Oilers win miss Kane (suspended) and Yamamoto just as much. It is very impressive the way the Avs have controlled the Oilers’ explosive offense since game 1, managing McDavid on ice where no one else could. Credit is due especially to Toews and Makar. I expect an all-out siege by McDavid and Co. tonight, but have underestimated Colorado’s defense twice and won’t be burned again. The Oilers are missing two key pieces on offense today. With Draisatl still limping about, the Oilers were already limited in secondary scoring, and can ill afford to lose them. Good as he is, McDavid cannot win on his own. Take the under today. |
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06-05-22 | Celtics v. Warriors -4 | Top | 88-107 | Win | 100 | 33 h 23 m | Show |
It’s difficult for me to believe that the Warriors will lose two straight home games. Before a Boston three-point barrage hit them in the fourth quarter of Game 1, the Warriors held a double digit lead. They are 4-0 this postseason off a loss, three of the four wins coming by at least 10 points. Since sweeping Brooklyn in the first round, the Celtics have not won three games in a row. They are 0-2 ATS off back to back wins in the previous two series, dropping those games by a combined 19 points. Boston isn’t going to make more than half of its three point attempts again. Al Horford was 6 of 8 from distance while Derrick White went 5 of 8. Those specific contributions are highly unlikely to be repeated in Game 2. Golden State is due for a strong effort at the defensive end. They’ve permitted an average of 113.7 points their last five games. For the year, they allow only 103.5 at home. Steph Curry ran wild in the first quarter, but other than that, there were no standout performances from the Warriors at the offensive end. Lots of room for improvement in Game 2, whether you’re talking Draymond Green (2 for 12 in Game 1) or Jordan Poole (2 for 7). Lay the points. |
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06-05-22 | Cardinals -117 v. Cubs | Top | 5-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 47 m | Show |
Down 2-1 in their road series vs the Cubs, the Cardinals send out the ageless Wainwright to even things up. Wainwright had a couple of sub-par starts in April but has been his usual steady self in May, with a 1.69 ERA and opposing batters hitting just .174 for the month. The Cubs are hitting well, but their pitching is poor. Starters are over 5.00 ERA for the last two weeks, and relievers are an ugly 6.55 in the same period. The Cubs’ lefty, Steele’s starts have been on the short side. Other than 2 quality starts, he has given up more runs than would be desired, hence an ERA of 5.40. He has been terrific vs. Arizona but most other teams have had the better of him. While the Cubs are hitting much better than the Cards for the season, the Cards are the hottest hitting team in baseball vs left handers, while the Cubs are just 19th in the league vs right handed batters, just 14-22 in games vs the right. I am on the side of the old guy on Sunday. Look for the Cardinals to open up on Steele, and their superior bullpen to save this one. Take St Louis to win. |
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06-05-22 | Rangers v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 4 h 47 m | Show |
Vasilevskiy’s and the Lightnings’ streak of consecutive wins after losses was broken in Game 2. The question is, can they restart the streak tonight? They are at home, where they have been effective in both regular season and playoffs, and in a must-win situation. The Rangers badly out-played the Lightning in Game 2, and are healthier, but haven’t been the same team on the road for the season and the play-offs. Other than the outlier in Game 7, their goal production vs the Hurricanes dropped considerably in road appearances. The Rangers have a young team and are likely fired up, but the Lightning have experience on their side. Look for a bounce back from Tampa Bay’s top players, and expect a much better performance from the Lightning. The issue for Tampa is, of course, Shesterkin. Considering his play in this series and last, it is hard to believe that the Lightning can run up the score tonight. Rangers + 1 ½ is a likely outcome, but is prohibitively expensive. I am back on the total. Look for some thing of a goaltender’s duel, and take the under. |
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06-04-22 | Avalanche v. Oilers OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
Down 2-0, the Oilers are up against it, and need a win. With home ice, the Oilers will have that coveted last change, so expect to see more from the McDavid line tonight. The Oilers to date have managed to bounce back in these playoffs, but they face a very fine team who have been great on the road to date. Edmonton's defense and goaltending has not slowed the Avs down. While I expect the Oilers will test Francouz much more tonight, I am not confident of an Oiler win. As well as McKinnon's line has played, Kadre has been a beast in the playoffs, and no one has solved him yet. I do expect another fine game from McDavid, the best in the business. Look for a better result from the Oilers, and take the Over today. |
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06-04-22 | Mariners v. Rangers -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 5 h 51 m | Show |
The Mariners are hot, winning five of seven games. The Rangers, after winning 5 of 6, have now lost three in a row. Both teams have solid starters on the mound today. Seattle lefty Gonzales (3.55 ERA) doesn’t overpower anyone but has been getting consistent results, if not wins. Opposing teams, including the Rangers have hit Gonzales well recently, but he usually manages to keep the run totals down. He doesn’t get much support from Mariners’ batters, and his walks to strikeout ratio lately has not been good. Rangers starter Otto (4.33 ERA) has been very sharp, particularly in his last 3 games. One extremely poor start skewed his ERA, but otherwise, he has pitched very consistently, giving up just 4 runs in his last 18 innings. While the Rangers’ bullpen failed them in the ninth last night, they have been very good for the year, especially in the last few weeks. The Mariners’ pen has struggled this year, with a real inability to finish games. They have converted just 8 of 15 save opportunities. I am on the Rangers tonight. They hit left handed pitching well and have had good success vs Gonzales. The Mariners have not been great on the road, and some of Gonzales’ recent stats are concerning. Look for Otto and the bullpen to put it together tonight. Rangers to win. |
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06-03-22 | Red Sox -1.5 v. A's | Top | 7-2 | Win | 105 | 13 h 38 m | Show |
The Red Sox are the hottest hitting team in the MLB over the last two weeks with a .309 batting average, a .915 OPS, and 24 home runs. Oakland’s batting average is 80 points less and has less than half the homeruns in the same period. With all that power, The Sox still can’t seem to win two games in a row. Friday night could be the night for the Sox, as the A’s, at 1-6, struggle to win at all, and have been limited to a single run in 4 of 10 starts. Eovaldi starts for the Red Sox, and other than one miserable outing, he has been very solid. Eovaldi has one ugly stat this year; he has given up 16 home runs to date, accounting for almost all of his earned runs. On the plus side, Eovaldi pitched a 9 inning 2 ER complete game in his last appearance. He faces Kaprielien, who returned from the IL on May 1, and has already pitched 5 starts. Not one of his outings has been over 5 innings, and in his last two games he has given up a run an inning. He too has been a victim of the long ball. Boston’s bullpen has been roughed up but not nearly as badly as the A’s relievers, who are struggling along at a 6.23 ERA. If you are going to give up the long ball, the A’s are a far saver option than the Red Sox. Not only do I think the Sox will win on Friday night, I think they will do it in style. Take Boston on the run line, at – 1 ½. |
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06-03-22 | Lightning v. Rangers UNDER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 9 h 59 m | Show |
I think everyone expects a much better game out of the Lightning in Game 2, particularly considering Vasilevskiy’s and the Lightnings’ near magical ability to bounce back after a loss. Vasilevskiy was rusty and he must be smarting after such a disappointing start. The Lightning need at least 1 win on Rangers ice, to win the series, but Shesterkin stands in their way. The Lightning had nearly 40 shots on him in game one with limited results. I expect a goalie duel tonight, but am not confident of a Lightning victory at MSG. A sharp goalie has and can steal a series, and Shesterkin has the hot hand at the moment. I was wrong on the total last time, but I think I have it right today. Take the total to go under. |
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06-03-22 | Diamondbacks v. Pirates +105 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
The Diamondbacks had almost played themselves in to respectability before they were swept by the Dodgers. They bounced back against the Braves, taking the series, and have been a .500 road team this year. Merrill Kelly, their best pitcher in April, has come back down to earth in May, with an ERA of over six and double the base on balls. His start length has also slipped. He has been ugly in the early innings. Meanwhile the Pirates swept the Dodgers in LA, and are 6-4 L10. They have hit comparatively well lately, although neither team is considered a powerhouse. Brubaker has been the reverse of Kelly, with good success in May and an ERA of 2.65. His last two appearances have been 5 and 6+ inning shutouts. Relief pitching has been reasonably effective lately for both teams, although the edge goes to the D-backs. Brubaker has yet to win a game this year, but today might be the day. He has impressed, and Kelly has not lately. It could be close, but I expect the Pirates to continue in their winning ways, at least for tonight. Take Brubaker and the Pirates to win. |
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06-02-22 | Celtics v. Warriors OVER 212.5 | Top | 120-108 | Win | 100 | 33 h 30 m | Show |
The Western Conference Finals was an unkind series for yours truly, but I went 4-2 in the L6 games of the Eastern Conference Finals. It was Boston coming through as a 10* play in Game 7. For Game 1 of the NBA Finals, I’m focusing on the total. In a series that figured to be low-scoring going in, the Celtics & Heat combined to score 212 or more points in four of the seven games. Now Boston faces a Golden State team that has averaged the most points per possession in the league during the playoffs. The Warriors have averaged 114.5 points/game in the playoffs, which is more than they averaged during the regular season. Assuming they can reach, or just come close to, that average, then it shouldn’t be much of a problem seeing this game go Over the total. The fewest points scored by the Warriors over their last six games is 109. This is the lowest O/U for any of their playoff games. The Warriors shot better than 51% in all three home games last round. That’s pretty significant as Dallas was the #2 team in points per game allowed in the regular season. Take the Over. |
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