For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.
CLICK A CAPPERS NAME TO SEE THEIR PREMIUM DAILY EXPERT PLAYS + PREDICTIONS!
Schedule: NFL | CFB | MLB | NBA | CBB | NHL
WANT FREE SPORTS PICKS to your inbox? | Newsletter Sign-UP!
Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
01-23-22 | Celtics +1.5 v. Wizards | Top | 116-87 | Win | 100 | 7 h 18 m | Show |
I like this play quite a bit. Looking at the standings, Washington is 9th and Boston is 10th. Neither has played all that well of late. Boston has dropped two in a row, both as a favorite, while Washington is 1-8 ATS its last nine games. The Wizards have also lost two straight as a favorite. But what sticks out here is that the Celtics have a better point differential. They are better defensively than the Wizards. Looking at all the realistic playoff contenders in the East, the Wiz have the worst point differential. Boston lost twice to Washington early in the year. In the second game, they sank only 2 of 26 three-point attempts. That’s very bad and also unlikely to repeat itself. Speaking of bad three-point shooting, leading scorer Jayson Tatum has missed his last 20 3PA. This is a player that ranks 10th in the NBA at 25.2 points per game. I believe the Celtics are due to make a lot of threes in this game. If nothing else, the law of averages is in their favor. Going back to January 4th, the Wizards have beaten only one team that wasn’t Orlando or Oklahoma City. Go with the better team on Sunday. TAKE BOSTON |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Rams v. Bucs OVER 47.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 32 h 5 m | Show |
The Rams face the Buccaneers for the second time this season, only this time it is for most the marbles. Not that it really matters at this point, but Tampa Bay has been lights out as a home team, and the Rams are a very good on the road this year. With Brady and Stafford at QB, both these teams are going to score points, and while the teams may run the ball, it will be to set up to two very good pass offenses. That said, the Bucs and Rams have good news on the rush offense side. RB Fournette will be healthy for the Bucs and the Rams have Akers back for only the 2nd time this season. Neither pass defense is in the top echelon, although the Rams did shut the Cardinals down effectively last weekend. Brady and Stafford will likely face more pressure than they are used to. The Rams in particular, have been tough on Qbs lately, and it is still not completely clear how injury will affect the Buc’s defensive line. Not to forget that these teams are 1st and 6th in protecting their passer. Stafford has had issues with interceptions, but didn’t throw the ball away at all last week. Brady rarely throws the ball away. I can see both offenses stepping it out this weekend. Weather conditions will be fine. Look for a ton of points scored. Take the Rams and Bucs to go over the total. |
|||||||
01-23-22 | Xavier v. Marquette +2.5 | Top | 64-75 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
Red hot Marquette hosts #20 Xavier here. The Golden Eagles have won five in a row and covered the spread every time. They are fresh off an upset of #11 Villanova earlier this week. It was their third straight win over a ranked opponent. This Marquette team has balance with four players averaging at least 11 points. During the win streak, the Golden Eagles are averaging 79.4 points and giving up only 64.4. Xavier’s last five games, which includes two losses, have been much tighter. The Musketeers are averaging only 70.6 points and giving up 69.4. The revenge angle is in play here as Xavier beat Marquette back in December, 80-71. But Marquette is obviously playing much better now. They held Providence and Villanova both under 60 points. Beating ‘Nova was really impressive. Marquette was the first road team to win there since 2018. So at home, I like the Golden Eagles to handle their business. Xavier has lost twice to Villanova recently and they were a bit lucky to stave off what was almost another loss on Thursday. They were down 10 in the second half to a DePaul team that was playing without its leading scorer. The Musketeers ended up winning by only one point, 68-67. It was the fifth time they failed to cover in the last six games. TAKE THE POINTS |
|||||||
01-22-22 | 49ers v. Packers UNDER 47.5 | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 59 h 56 m | Show |
The Packers are back from their bye week, rested and at home, but I wonder just how comfortable they are with this weekend’s match-up. The 49ers’ defense is tough and improving of late. In the last 3 weeks; 4+sacks a game, rush yards against average of 75, pass yards against 189, and an average quarterback rating of 78. You get my point. The last time the Packers played a solid defense was against the Browns, with a very close 22-20 win the result. Now throw in serious low temperatures, wind, and possible snow, all elements that would suggest more of a running game. The 49ers are 7th and climbing in rushing yards, with their Deebo/Mitchell combo. The Packers can also run, although not quite as effectively. They just can’t stop the run (31st in rush yards against). Worst case scenario for the Packers is the Giants coming in and running the ball all the cold day long. I am not saying we won’t see any magic from Rodgers, just less of it. If there weren’t injury issues with a couple of 49ers players, this would be a wager on San Francisco. All things considered, I like the total in this game. Take the 49ers and Packers to go under the total. |
|||||||
01-22-22 | New Mexico v. Wyoming -10 | Top | 91-93 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 35 m | Show |
Wyoming has had a couple close calls over its current five-game win streak. But both of those were not at home. In Laramie, the Cowboys are 7-0 with a +26.9 scoring average. I’m surprised they’re not favored by more here, especially with New Mexico on a five game losing streak. Perhaps the line is shorter than expected because New Mexico is 11-5-1 ATS. Wednesday was the fifth time they’ve covered in the last six games. But this is a situation where the Lobos are simply overmatched. The oddsmakers were a bit too generous in giving them 16 points at Colorado State. But that game saw New Mexico shoot better than expected and make 14 threes. Don’t think they’ll do that again. Wyoming is excellent defensively as it is allowing less than 40 percent shooting for the year. The Cowboys just won by 15 on Wednesday against San Jose State, keeping their perfect conference record intact. Four minutes into the game, they took the lead and never relinquished it. New Mexico allowing 83.4 points on the road is a problem, for them at least. Wyoming’s only two losses this year were to Pac 12 teams, one of which was Arizona. The home team is just way better. Lay the points with WYOMING |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Coppin State v. Norfolk State -6 | Top | 77-84 | Win | 100 | 9 h 5 m | Show |
Both Coppin State and Norfolk State are on 3-0 ATS win streaks entering Saturday. But the similarities end there. Norfolk State has simply been the better team all year. They have an 11-4 straight up record on the season while Coppin State has won only three games straight up all year. Norfolk State has also won all three of the games it has covered in a row. The last one was a 14-point victory at MD-Eastern Shore. That game saw the Spartans pull away in the second half. After playing so many games on the road the last two months, Norfolk State will be glad to be back home. They’ve won all four games on their home court and done so by an average of 36 points per contest! Coppin State was a small underdog in recent wins over South Carolina State and Morgan State. Before those wins, the Eagles had lost nine in a row. Last Saturday’s win came on a buzzer beater from beyond halfcourt. Coppin State trailed by 10 at halftime against Morgan State. So had it not been for the buzzer beater, we’d be talking about a team that had lost 10 of 11. Like Norfolk, Coppin State has played most of its games on the road. Problem is they are 2-13 away from home, those two wins coming each of the last two Saturdays. Can’t see them making it three in a row. Norfolk State is the best team in the MEAC and should win handily. Play on NORFOLK STATE |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Northern Colorado v. Eastern Washington +1 | Top | 87-83 | Loss | -108 | 8 h 5 m | Show |
In what could end up being a high scoring game, I like Eastern Washington to win at home. It’s difficult for me to see Northern Colorado being able to shoot the ball as well as they did Thursday at Idaho. The Bears made 57.1% of their field goal attempts, including 47.4% from three, on their way to an 87-70 win. It also helped that NCO saw Idaho make only 3 of its 16 three-point attempts. The wide disparity in three-point shooting basically dictated that game’s outcome. While NCO is a good three-point shooting team, they face an EWU team that is keeping its opponents right around 30% for the year from distance. Eastern Washington has gotten to play just six home games and three have been since the New Year. They’ve won two in a row, besting Idaho 96-93 and then Sacramento State 75-62 on Thursday. Normally, the Eagles are very good in Cheney. Their home record the last three seasons is 24-6. So getting the home team at this price seems ideal. They are on an 18-5 ATS run when playing with just one day of rest between games. Play on EASTERN WASHINGTON |
|||||||
01-22-22 | Bengals v. Titans -3 | Top | 19-16 | Loss | -110 | 81 h 33 m | Show |
The high-flying Bengals, led by star QB Joe Burrow, face a formidable ground-dwelling Titans team that likely features the return of the King, Derrick Henry. Burrow has put up the big numbers in spite of being sacked more than just about any QB in the league. The Titans’ defense sit 25th in passing yards given up, however they are much better in points allowed in the air (7th) and passing first downs. They will get to Burrow, but that hasn’t seemed to matter to his performance. The Bengals’ run defense, 7th for the season, has struggled lately, giving up 150+ yards on average in their last three games. While this game could be close, I favor the Titans for several reasons. Running under all of the hype around the return of Henry, Tannehill has put together some good outings in his last games. The Bengals’ pass defense is well below average and their defensive line is seriously compromised by injuries. The Titans will have more of a flexible offense on Saturday, and have had very good success in the red zone. The Bengals have a very solid running back in Joe Mixon, but don’t use him much and the Titans’ run defense is very very tough. The Titans will struggle to contain Burrow and Co., but they don’t give up a lot of points and are 4th in red-zone defense. The Titans are healthy and well rested. The best defense against Burrow is to keep him off the field. I think the Titans will establish a run game against the Bengals and slow this game down. A healthy Henry would just be the icing on the cake. Look for the Titans to win and cover. |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Thunder v. Hornets OVER 221.5 | Top | 98-121 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
Oklahoma City is not strong offensively. They actually rank dead last in the NBA in points per game as well as three-point shooting, and have scored 97 points or less in six of their last 11 games. But I think they’ve got an opportunity to break out tonight against Charlotte, who allows the second most points per game in the league. The Hornets’ defense has been a bit more sound of late while winning six of their last seven games. Three of those games have seen them allow fewer than 100 points. Five times they’ve allowed no more than 106. But eventually they’re going to revert back to their “old ways” and tonight might just be that night. The Thunder are coming off three consecutive games where they shot below 44%. It’s tough to shoot any worse than they did Wednesday in San Antonio when they made only 38.8% of their field goal attempts. That included 25% from three. I predict OKC will in fact shoot better tonight, leading to more points scored. Charlotte is 11-4 Over this season when facing a team that has a losing record. That’s the way I’m going here. |
|||||||
01-21-22 | Toledo v. Ohio -4 | Top | 87-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 29 m | Show |
The two hottest teams from the MAC will hook up tonight in Athens, Ohio has won nine straight games and is 14-2 on the season. Toledo carries a five-game win streak into this game and they have also covered the spread in each of those five victories. Ohio hasn’t lost at home this year. The Bobcats are 8-0 in Athens and winning by 11.4 points per contest. Their only two losses this year came against Kentucky and LSU! This is a good basketball team. Not saying Toledo isn’t any good, but the fact they are on the road places the Rockets at a slight disadvantage. All four of their losses this year have come away from home. In the last two road games, UT gave up 72 and 78 points. Ohio has been a covering machine in the MAC the past three seasons. They are 27-13 ATS. The last time they faced Toledo was the MAC Tournament in March and the Bobcats won that game. They’d make the NCAA Tournament and pull a first round upset over Virginia. Four starters are back from that NCAA Tournament squad and the Bobcats remain the favorites to win the league this year. Each of their last four home wins have come by at least seven points. Lay the points with OHIO |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Pacers v. Warriors UNDER 216.5 | Top | 121-117 | Loss | -110 | 14 h 26 m | Show |
Something you probably did not expect to hear is that each of the last eight games involving the Warriors have seen the losing team fail to score 100 points. Twice the winning team didn’t either. The Under is somehow only 5-3 in that stretch of games for Golden State. That seems surprising. They scored 138 points in a win over Chicago last week. But other than that, only one of the other seven games has seen more than 218 total points scored. Indiana is just searching for wins. They got one yesterday by beating the Lakers 111-104. But that was just the second time the Pacers have been victorious since Christmas. The Under is 5-2 when they are in the second night of a back to back this season. Golden State has been a bit of an Under machine this year. All but 15 games have gone low this season. They are 24-9 Under as a favorite. Conversely, Indiana is 17-6 Under when they are an underdog. So this has all the makings of a low-scoring game. In just their second home game together in 2 ½ years, Curry, Thompson and Green combined to shoot 20 of 37 in the last game, against Detroit. Collectively, they probably aren’t going to shoot that well again. Grab the UNDER |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Eastern Illinois v. Murray State -27 | Top | 51-91 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Earlier this month, Murray State made news by announcing it would be joining the Missouri Valley Conference in July. But that’s the future. Here in the present, the Racers are dominating their current conference (Ohio Valley) with a 5-0 record. They are 15-2 overall on the season. That dominance should - pretty clearly - continue tonight when Murray State hosts Eastern Illinois. The Racers are - justifiably - big favorites here. They’ve won their eight home games by an average of almost 28 points. Then you’ve got Eastern Illinois, who is 2-14 overall and hasn’t won a single road game. EIU will not be sad to see Murray State leave the OVC. Three days ago, at home, they lost 72-46 to the Racers at home. So it’s a quick rematch and obviously there’s no reason to think that things will go any better here for the underdog. Eastern Illinois is just 14-28 ATS in conference play the last three seasons. They are putting up only 50.7 points per game away from home. Murray State has covered 10 of the last 13 times it has been a home favorite of 12.5 or more points. This is a large spread, but for good reason. Lay it! |
|||||||
01-20-22 | Winthrop -3.5 v. Presbyterian | Top | 60-58 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Winthrop has a perfect 3-0 straight up record in the Big South, but the Eagles have been unable to cash any tickets as favorites this year. They are 0-7 ATS in the chalk role and have not covered any of the last five games. But I look for that to change on Thursday. Winthrop takes on a struggling Presbyterian side tonight. It’s a road game, but Presbyterian isn’t a team to be feared. In their last home game, they lost 82-72 as an eight point favorite. As conference foes, these teams meet twice every year. It’s an interesting pattern the previous two years. Winthrop won all four games, but failed to cover the spread every time. That plays a bit into the recent form of the Eagles winning, but not covering. However, what I find interesting is that they were double digit favorites each of those last four games against Presbyterian. Here, it’s a relatively short number and I’m seeing value on the road team. Presbyterian has lost eight straight games against Division I opponents. Since the beginning of December, the only three teams that the Blue Hose have beaten are: Bob Jones U, Carver Bible and Truett-McConnell. I’m not making those schools up. Lay the points with WINTHROP |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Thunder v. Spurs -6 | Top | 96-118 | Win | 100 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
San Antonio’s quest to make it back to .500, or at the very least get back in the top 10 in the West, requires that they win games like this. Tonight they host Oklahoma City, unquestionably one of the four worst teams in the league. The Thunder have been covering at a high rate this year, as they are always underdogs. But they’ve got just one win in the last eight games. Truthfully, the Spurs haven’t been much better, with just two wins in their last 12 games. But they led Phoenix in the fourth quarter, here at home, the other night. I just have a “feeling” this is the game where SA “puts it all together.” OKC was down 22 Monday in Dallas. That they were able to close the gap to two when the final buzzer sounded is a little bit misleading. The Spurs have covered four straight times following a double digit loss at home. Take them minus the points here. |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Kentucky v. Texas A&M OVER 143.5 | Top | 64-58 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 28 m | Show |
The last time Kentucky played, they put up 107 points. That would be impressive against anyone, but to do that against Tennessee, a nationally ranked team that’s also fifth in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency, well that’s just awesome. Proud to say I had the Wildcats against Tennessee. Look for them to score a lot again tonight as they visit Texas A&M. Kentucky is averaging 84 points per game this season. They’ve gone over 90 in five of the last eight games. But A&M can score too. Especially when they’re at home. The Aggies average 80.9 points here in College Station. I know that the last two games, both Unders, were low-scoring. But before that A&M had a streak of six straight games scoring at least 80 points. Frankly, I’m stunned this total isn’t higher. A&M, who is on an eight-game win streak, has gone Over all four times they’ve been an underdog this year. Kentucky won’t shoot as well as they did against Tennessee. But they will still score 75 or more points and that’s all we need. Take the OVER |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Wolves v. Hawks -2 | Top | 122-134 | Win | 100 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
Minnesota played last night, so this is a good chance for Atlanta to pick up a much needed victory. The Hawks are 18-25 right now. This is a team that made it to the Eastern Conference Finals last year. The Timberwolves haven’t exactly been “playoff regulars,” so they’ve got to be thrilled to be seventh in the West. They picked up a win last night, 112-110, but did not cover as three-point favorites. I picked up a win with the Over. Minnesota is still a “young” team, so I see them as being prone to a “letdown” this evening. The last time they were off a win and playing with no rest, they scored 88 points and lost to the Knicks. That was at home. It’s a losing road record for the Timberwolves this season. I can’t stress how desperate the Hawks will be for a win here. They are coming off a win, against Milwaukee, so you know what they’re capable of doing. They won at Minnesota last month. Lay the short number with the HAWKS |
|||||||
01-19-22 | Maple Leafs v. Rangers +135 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 135 | 9 h 9 m | Show |
These two fine teams have split their last two games with a very low total of three goals in each case. That may not be the case tonight. The Toronto defense is down a pair of players, and Campbell has not settled in after the break, giving up 13 goals in hs last three starts. Rangers' likely starter Shesterkin has been as hot as ever, allowing only two goals in his last two starts. The Leafs have a number of players just returning from Covid protocol, and the Rangers are a very good home team. New York may not have the firepower of the Leafs, but their defense and PK is topnotch. The Leafs are a surprisingly heavy favorite today. Shesterkin and the Rangers' defense will be the difference. Given these odds I am happy to play on the Rangers to win. |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Loyola-Chicago -12 v. Evansville | Top | 77-48 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
Loyola Chicago should be a familiar name to those who follow the NCAA Tournament. The Ramblers have made two deep Tourney runs in the last four years, one of them all the way to the Final Four (in 2018). Currently on a nine-game win streak, they are back in the Top 25 as of yesterday (ranked #22). Expect an easy win on Tuesday. Evansville is a bad team with a 4-11 record. The Purple Aces hadn’t played in almost a month when it was time for the Missouri Valley Conference portion of the schedule to go into full effect. They’ve lost all three games in January, two by 22 or more. Loyola is clearly the best Missouri Valley team this year, although they’ve had some close calls. Two of their four league wins have required overtime. But this one is looking like the easiest matchup yet. Saturday saw Loyola hold Indiana State to 56 points. Evansville is only averaging 60.5 points this season. So it should be another solid effort at the defensive end from the favorite here. The past two years have seen Loyola win all four head to head meetings. Three of the wins have been by double digits. Lay the points with LOYOLA CHICAGO |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Wolves v. Knicks OVER 212.5 | Top | 112-110 | Win | 100 | 12 h 49 m | Show |
I was “spot on” calling for the Knicks’ game to go Under yesterday. They scored just 87 points in a loss to the Hornets, here at home. They only gave up 97. As I wrote in the analysis, many of the Knicks recent contests have been low-scoring affairs. In the last 12 games, they’ve held the opponent under 100 points. Five of those 12 games have seen them fail to get to 100 themselves. But a matchup against Minnesota on Tuesday should change all of that. The Timberwolves are one of the higher scoring teams in the NBA. They are putting up 110.1 points per contest and that number grows to 114.1 on the road. Over the last five games, the T’wolves have averaged 125.6 points. Minny blew out Golden State Sunday to move within a game of .500. But don’t read that much into them holding the Warriors to just 99 points. Neither Steph Curry or Draymond Green played in that game. The Knicks are now right at .500 after Monday’s loss. When these teams met right before the New Year, it was a 96-88 Knicks victory. But that game saw both sides shoot very poorly, especially at the free throw line where they combined to miss 17 of 36 attempts. I look for the rematch to be a lot higher scoring, so take the OVER |
|||||||
01-18-22 | Western Michigan v. Akron -14 | Top | 73-74 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 11 m | Show |
Akron, who is one of the top teams in the MAC, has hit a recent snag. They’ve lost two of three and are just 9-5 on the year. But tonight they host a Western Michigan team that is on a six-game losing streak. Expect this to be an easy cover by the home team. The Zips lost 67-55 at rival Kent State on Friday. In addition to falling victim to a career night from Kent State’s Sincere Carry, the Zips were terrible at shooting from long range. They made only 4 of 24 three point attempts. But for the year, they’ve shot well from distance. At home they are making 37.4% of three-point attempts and that’s a big reason why they are putting up 82.4 points per game at the James A. Rhodes Arena. With Western Michigan giving up 86.1 points per game on the road this year, tonight should be an excellent showing at the offensive end from Akron. WMU has scored more than 64 points only once during its six-game losing streak. They never seem to do well in games where the total is 130 to 139.5. They are 5-17 ATS in such games the last three seasons, 0-6 when on the road. This is a game Akron should win by 20 or more points. Western Michigan is getting outscored by 21.1 points per game on the road. Lay the points with AKRON |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Thunder v. Mavs -11.5 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
Save for one bad game at Madison Square Garden last week, the Mavericks have been tearing it up of late. They come into Monday having won eight of their last nine games. On Friday, they ended the long win streak of the Memphis Grizzlies with an emphatic 112-85 beatdown. That was followed by another double digit victory, 108-92 over Orlando on Saturday. This should be a third straight double digit victory for the Mavs as they host Oklahoma City on Monday. While the Thunder have been more competitive than expected so far, they don’t win games. Saturday marked their eighth loss in the last 10 tries. They blew a double digit lead at home against Cleveland and ended up going down 107-102. The key to the Mavericks’ recent success has been their defense. They’ve led the league in defensive efficiency over the last three weeks - by a rather wide margin, in fact. Oklahoma City, despite averaging 116 points in its last three games, is still last in the league at 100.8 points per game. This is the third meeting of the year between these teams. In the first two, both of which were played in OKC, the Mavs held the Thunder to 84 and 86 points. Should be another easy win here. Lay the points. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Cardinals v. Rams -3.5 | Top | 11-34 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The Cardinals have been on a downward trend, losing 4 of 5, scoring less points and allowing considerably more over the last month. There is no defensive category where they have shown anything but a slide. Things are not much better on offense with far less passing yards, and far poorer results in the red zone. That is a lot of ship to right coming into the wildcard weekend. They are a good road team and beat the Cowboys on the road, but lets not forget that they lost badly on the road to the Lions. The Rams have won 4 of 5, losing narrowly to the 49ers last week. Well, don’t they always lose to the 49ers? Much has been and should be made of Stafford’s ability to turn the ball over. He faced formidable pressure from the 49ers’ defense and was sacked 5 times. The Cardinals will not exert that kind of pressure on Stafford this week. The Rams’ defense are tough on the run, and very good at getting to the quarterback. They give up yards against the pass, but not necessarily points. They are much better in the red zone of late. They beat Arizona by 7 last time out. I don’t think it will be much different this week. The Rams have the stars who can excel, Stafford being one of them. This is a critical game for some very big Rams reputations. I am wagering for LA to step up here. Take the Rams to win and cover. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Lamar v. Stephen F Austin -14.5 | Top | 78-86 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
Over the weekend, SF Austin suffered its second loss in the last three games. It was 49-41 at Sam Houston State. As you can tell from that score, it was a bad shooting night. The Lumberjacks made only 26.3% of their field goal attempts and were 3 of 25 from three-point range. It was also the third straight ATS loss for the Lumberjacks, who are trying to make their presence felt in the WAC, their new conference home after a move from the Southland. Tonight should be a “get-well” game for SF Austin as they face one of their old Southland rivals, Lamar, who is having an absolutely terrible season. Lamar comes into Monday with a 2-14 SU record. Both wins were against non-DI opponents. The Cardinals just got beat by Chicago State, who is a horrible team, on Saturday. They were actually eight-point favorites in that game, playing at home. On the road, Lamar hasn’t won a game. They are 0-10. While Lamar has been somewhat competitive this year, that won’t be the case tonight. SF Austin should be in a foul mood and ready to dominate one of the easiest opponents on their remaining schedule. LAY THE POINTS |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Hornets v. Knicks UNDER 217.5 | Top | 97-87 | Win | 100 | 5 h 56 m | Show |
Two teams fighting for position in the Eastern Conference meet in this early Monday tip. Charlotte is 7th with a 23-20 record and New York is 10th with a 22-21 record. As you can tell, it’s a tightly packed race for those play-in spots to the playoff tournament. Charlotte had a four-game win streak snapped on Friday with a bad loss to Orlando. They were 11-point favorites in the 116-109 setback. I expect the Hornets to tighten up their defense here, after allowing the Magic to shoot 51% from the field. The Under is 4-0 this season when the Hornets play on exactly two days' rest. The Knicks are also coming off a relatively high scoring game, only they won, 117-108 at Atlanta. It was the third straight win for the Knicks and they’ve covered the spread in all three games. High-scoring games have been uncommon for them, however. Their last five games have averaged just 202.6 total points. Saturday’s win over the Hawks was NY’s highest scoring game since before Christmas. Going back to X-Mas, the Knicks have held 8 of 11 opponents below 100 points. Take the UNDER here. |
|||||||
01-17-22 | Purdue v. Illinois OVER 149.5 | Top | 96-88 | Win | 100 | 4 h 46 m | Show |
For the first time this season, Purdue is an underdog. That’s because Monday’s opponent, Illinois, is no joke. The Fighting Illini deserve to be ranked much higher than #25. No need to spend much time singing the Illini’s praises to Boilermaker fans though. Illinois has won the last three meetings by an average of 17 points. But Purdue is also very good and I don’t want to fade them either. What I will do though is take the Over. Neither team has much trouble scoring and you should expect plenty of points in this early Monday tipoff. Purdue is putting up 85.6 points per contest. That’s sixth most in the country. They scored 92 on Friday in a blowout win over Nebraska. It was the fourth straight Boilermakers’ game to go Over the total. Illinois is averaging 79.7 points this season, 83.8 when at home. Their last game, a 68-53 win over Michigan, was pretty low-scoring. But that was after putting up at least 76 points in 10 straight games. My view is that Purdue is the better team, but Illinois is undoubtedly hotter. Both teams can obviously score. The Over is 10-2 in the Boilermakers’ previous 12 games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600. Take the OVER here. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Steelers v. Chiefs -11.5 | Top | 21-42 | Win | 100 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
The Chiefs crushed the Steelers just three weeks ago, winning by 26. The Steelers squeaked into the playoffs by the slimmest of margins, and all the talk about no pressure on the Steelers in this game doesn’t hide the fact that the Chiefs are a much better team with a recent history of playoff success. The Steelers’ claim to fame is their pass defense, in particular Qb pressure, pass yards allowed and yards per attempt. That said, it is odd that against the good pass-first offenses they have played (Bengals, Chiefs, Chargers and Vikings) , all were losses and some by wide margins. As far as sacks go, the Chiefs are third in the league in protecting their QB, allowing just 1 sack per week over their last three games. TJ Watt was held in control in their last meeting, a rare occasion. The Steelers are dead last against the run. Even though the Chiefs are best known as a pass-first offense, they have far greater balance this year and can run the ball very effectively. Mahomes will do whatever is needed under the circumstances to win a game. He is still one of the best rushing Qbs in the business. The Chiefs’ defense gives up the eighth least points allowed, which is surprising as there is no one area in which they excel. They are healthy now, and we need to be reminded that they have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to under two Tds. The Steelers just don’t put many points on the board. With a very poor run game and a very average pass offense, I don’t expect them to surprise anyone on Sunday. Take the Chiefs to win and cover. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Jazz -4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 125-102 | Win | 100 | 12 h 9 m | Show |
Utah, who has slipped to fourth in the West, could really use a win here. They’ve lost four in a row despite being favored in their last three games. Even more surprising is that all four Jazz losses have been by double digits. This has been their worst stretch of the season. But tonight sees them returning to the site of their last win, which came on January 5th, 115-109 in Denver. At that moment in time, the Jazz had won eight of nine. The Nuggets are in the second game of a back to back and playing their third game in four days. The last two have gone well for them. Not only did the blowout Portland 140-108, they did the same to the Lakers last night, winning 133-96. But it’s probably not possible for Denver to match last night’s shooting where they were 23 of 40 from three. Depth looks like it will be an issue tonight with JaMychal Green entering health and safety protocol and Austin Rivers out with a non-COVID illness. Utah is too good to continue losing like this. I still think they’re one of the top teams. Lay the points! |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Iowa v. Minnesota +6 | Top | 81-71 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 59 m | Show |
Iowa is a team that can score. They are fourth in the country in scoring at 86.5 points per game. But they don’t defend particularly well. That’s evident by the fact that they are 160th in adjusted defensive efficiency and also them giving up an average of 77.2 points per game when they play on the road. That defensive efficiency rating of theirs really sticks out. It’s the poorest mark - by far - of any team in the KenPom top 40. So I really like the idea of grabbing the points here, with Iowa being on the road. The Hawkeyes were a bit lucky to pull one out in Iowa City earlier this week. They rallied from a 48-41 halftime deficit to beat Indiana 83-74. But again, that was a home game. Let it be known that Iowa’s last three true road games all ended up as losses. Minnesota comes into Sunday as a desperate team. They’re on a three-game losing streak after falling in the final second to Michigan State on Wednesday. It was still a valiant effort as double digit underdogs against a team ranked 10th in the country. Bottom line: I just think that the Golden Gophers will score enough to stay within a generous number at home. Grab the points. |
|||||||
01-16-22 | Eagles v. Bucs UNDER 46 | Top | 15-31 | Push | 0 | 30 h 31 m | Show |
The Eagles are not going to be scared off their run-focused game plan easily; the Buccaneers’ powerful run defense is not quite what it was last year or even earlier in the season. The Bucs haven’t faced a quarterback who runs as well as Hurts does lately, and the Eagles have the best run offense in the league, with two solid RBs who will figure into the picture. Still, Tampa does not give points up easily. Fifth in the league in points allowed, they do allow passing yards, but not so many points, and do pressure the opposing quarterback very well. The Eagles have been successful at limiting pass and run yards this year, but between the Eagles’ lack of QB pressure, and the Buc’s very good O-line, Brady will likely be a force to be reckoned with. Throwing into the wind and the rain will likely have some impact on Brady’s game, and the Buccaneers are far less effective moving the football on the ground. I like the total in this game. The Buccaneers have some key players who are still banged up. The weather conditions suggest a slower than usual game, and possibly more of a running game from the Buccaneers. The Eagles may find points hard to come by on Saturday, and may have a little success limiting Brady. The total seems high in this situation. Take the Eagles and Buccaneers to go under on Sunday. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Lakers v. Nuggets OVER 224.5 | Top | 96-133 | Win | 100 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
The Lakers and Nuggets are both fighting to get into the top six in the Western Conference. The Nuggets currently occupy sixth position, but are just a game up on Saturday’s opponent. The home team looked very good its last time out as they blasted an undermanned Portland team 140-108. Los Angeles hasn’t been as lucky of late. The Lakers have lost two in a row and in doing so have given up 125 and 127 points. They let Memphis and Sacramento shoot 54.5% from the field. With Anthony Davis and others out, the scoring burden has fallen on LeBron James. But James has been up to the task, even playing center at times, and he’s scored 30 or more in 11 of the last 12 games. Given how the Lakers have played defense recently and how the Nuggets shot in their last game, there’s no doubt in my mind that the home team will score a bunch tonight. The Lakers should follow suit though. The Over is 4-0 their last four games and 5-0 the last five times they’ve been off a loss. The Over is also 4-0 the last four Lakers-Nuggets matchups in Denver. Take the OVER |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Patriots v. Bills -4 | Top | 17-47 | Win | 100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
The Patriots face the Bills for a chance to move on, but looking carefully at the two teams’ last month’s performances, it seems unlikely that they can or will win this game. There has been a significant regression in the Patriots’ defensive performance, especially in the run, an aspect of the game that will likely figure prominently on a very cold day in Buffalo. Points allowed are way up, their ability to pressure QBs has declined, and their red zone defense has declined. This against a Bills team with the third highest points for. For a generally pass-first offense, the Bills have now passed the Patriots in rushing yards and rush yards/attempt. Allen has had excellent protection three weeks in a row. As much as the Patriots’ defense has declined, the Bills’ defensive effort has soared. First in points allowed, dominant in all pass defense categories, they have also shown huge improvement in rush defense. The Bills are very healthy; not so the Patriots, with numerous starters banged up. The Bills are on a roll and Allen is in good form. There are some questions around Patriots’ QB Jones lately, and the rookie QB faces a very tough defense in cold play-off conditions. Belichick or no, the Bills will win and cover.. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Oklahoma State v. Baylor -13.5 | Top | 61-54 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 17 m | Show |
#1 Baylor looks to bounce back from its first loss of the season when it hosts Oklahoma State on Saturday. I expect this game to go quite well for the top ranked Bears. They led Texas Tech by 15 in the first half before suffering their first loss since last year’s Big 12 Tournament. The reigning National Champs had won 22 in a row by an average of 26 points. Oklahoma State is also off a loss to Texas Tech, though theirs came in more lopsided fashion. It was 78-58 down in Lubbock on Thursday. This is a trying season for the Cowboys, who are ineligible for the NCAA Tournament. Baylor has had two more days to prepare for this game, an advantage they don’t really need but will gladly take. This is OSU’s third road game in five days and they have failed to cover eight of their last nine overall. Look for the best team in the country to come out with some real energy after suffering their first loss of the year. That should result in a big win. Play on BAYLOR |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Raiders v. Bengals -5 | Top | 19-26 | Win | 100 | 55 h 59 m | Show |
The Raiders, off an inspiring win last week, squeaked into the playoffs, and now face a rested Bengals team. The pass-first Bengals offense comes in with Burrow at his peak, some solid receiving options, and a top 5 running back, a dual threat, who they probably under-use on the ground. Burrow is accurate, explosive and does not turn the ball over. The only issue with Burrow is the lack of protection he gets. The Bengals defense is middle of the pack. Their strengths are against the run, they give up yards but not necessarily points against the pass, and they can be effective in pressuring the QB. They have a definite advantage in turnovers, both on offense and defense. The Raiders have presented a much more balanced attack in their last few games and it has been working for them. Carr might be playing second to Burrow, but his stats speak for themselves. The Raiders have relied much more on their running game lately, and have a good running back, also a twin threat, in Jacobs. On defense, the Raiders have given up a ton of points this season, but that has declined outside of last week. They have tightened up against the run, but do struggle against a strong pass-first offense such as the Bengals. The Raiders’ red zone defense is also an issue. The Bengals beat the Raiders handily on the road earlier in the season. Cincinnati hasn’t won a playoff game in a very long time, so they are due. The Raiders did not have the benefit of a week off, and are on the road. I am wagering that the Bengals, a real offensive powerhouse in top form, to outscore the Raiders. Cincinnati to win and cover. |
|||||||
01-15-22 | Tennessee v. Kentucky -4.5 | Top | 79-107 | Win | 100 | 5 h 17 m | Show |
There’s a top five in the SEC pecking order with Auburn, Kentucky, LSU, Tennessee and Alabama all vying for conference supremacy. Two of the five teams go head to head on Saturday as #18 Kentucky faces #22 Tennessee in Lexington Saturday afternoon. UT has split its first four SEC games, winning twice at home and losing both times on the road. That pattern doesn’t bode well for today. The teams the Volunteers lost at: were Alabama and LSU. Kentucky is 11-0 at Rupp Arena so far, winning by 27.5 points per contest. The Wildcats’ only SEC loss came at LSU. They never trailed Tuesday in a 78-66 win over Vanderbilt. In that game, Oscar Tshiebwe turned in his 12th double double of the season and a career-high 30 points. UK led by as many as 28 before taking their foot off the gas near the end of the game. Kentucky seems to have a major edge at the offensive end where they are eighth in the country in adjusted efficiency. Tennessee is only 58th. Versus teams that average 77 or more points per game, the Vols are 5-14 ATS the previous three seasons. Because they’re playing at home, Kentucky has a significant advantage. Lay the points here. |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Cavs v. Spurs +3.5 | Top | 114-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
San Antonio is desperate for a win here. They lost at home to the Rockets on Wednesday. That was their fourth straight loss as well as their eighth in the last nine games. The only win was by the slightest of margins (99-97) over Boston. Cleveland is no longer a pushover as it proved again on Wednesday when they went to Utah and smashed the Jazz 111-91, despite being a five-point underdog. The Cavs shockingly own the top point differential in the Eastern Conference. But their ATS record has slipped a bit this month. They’ve covered just two of the last nine games, Wednesday being one of them. Oddsmakers are going to start catching up with the Cavaliers and this is an instance where I don’t think they should be favored. Two starters could be returning tonight for the Spurs. That would greatly aid the likes of Dejounte Murray, who had a triple double in the last game. Murray was backed up by six teammates scoring 11 or more points. I really don’t know how San Antonio managed to lose to Houston. They were up nine in the third quarter. An interesting tidbit on the Spurs: their home record is 7-11, but they have scored more points than they’ve allowed in those games. They average 115.6 PPG here. Take SAN ANTONIO |
|||||||
01-14-22 | VCU v. St Bonaventure -2 | Top | 53-73 | Win | 100 | 12 h 0 m | Show |
Virginia Commonwealth and St. Bonaventure may have similar straight up records (10-3 and 9-4 respectively), but it’s a much different story at the pay window as VCU is 10-4 ATS (7-0 on the road) while the Bonnies are 3-8 ATS and have failed to cover seven in a row. But what I’m looking for Friday is a reversal of fortunes. The Bonnies had not played in almost a month (four cancellations/postponements) when they took the floor against LaSalle on Tuesday. They won 80-76, but could not cover the 9.5 point spread on the road as the game went to overtime. I’m going to “excuse” that close call, based on how long it had been since the Bonnies had last played. With a game under their belt and playing at home, expect a much better effort from the Bonnies tonight. VCU has won seven straight overall and is 3-0 in January. The Rams had one close call, a 53-52 win at Dayton, but other than that they’ve been winning rather comfortably. The key to tonight’s game is that I do not think VCU can match its scoring from the last two games when it put up 85 on LaSalle and 84 on George Washington. The Rams only average 63.4 points per game and are 255th in offensive efficiency. St. Bonaventure doesn’t foul all that often and VCU isn’t very good at converting free throws all that often. The road team also has a high turnover rate. Assuming the Bonnies can convert those TO’s into points, they should easily cover this number as VCU won’t be doing much scoring of their own. Play on ST. BONAVENTURE |
|||||||
01-14-22 | Celtics v. 76ers UNDER 212.5 | Top | 99-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
Philadelphia has already gone Under in each of its last three games. But they did allow Charlotte to shoot 51.7% Wednesday in a loss. I don’t think they’ll let Boston shoot that well. The Celtics are off a game where they shot 51.3%, so they are probably due for a downturn anway. That 51.3% shooting performance led to a 119-110 win in Indiana for the Celtics on Wednesday. Boston had three 30+ point quarters, made 18 three-pointers and went 21 of 25 from the line. Tatum and Brown combined for 67 points. No way the team will be that prolific again here. But Boston can rely on its defense, which has held the last five opponents to just 96 points per game. You’d have to go back to before Christmas to find the last time a team shot 50% or better against the Celtics. Before facing Charlotte, the Sixers hadn’t let an opponent hit 50% or better since December 13th! The Under is 7-1 in Philly’s last eight home games. They only scored 98 points on Wednesday, despite getting 31 from Joel Embiid. Getting back to what I was saying earlier about Boston not being able to match its prolific shooting from the last game. They are 33-15-1 Under following a straight-up win by 10 or more points. Take the UNDER here. |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Oregon State +15 v. USC | Top | 71-81 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
USC just suffered its first loss and is now laying a big number against Oregon State. I’m all about taking the points in this matchup. It was only 48 hours ago that the Trojans suffered that first loss, on the road, to Stanford. Favored by 6.5 points, they lost 75-69. It was a poor shooting effort, which may have had something to do with the game being moved. Originally, it was going to be played Saturday. But COVID rearranged the schedule. Now the Trojans will play three conference games in a week. Up next is Oregon State, who was also an Elite Eight team last season. The Beavers are not having as good of a 2021-22 season; they are just 3-11 and coming off a last second loss to Oregon. But they have covered three in a row. Attendance will be limited for tonight’s game. That minimizes any home court advantage for USC. The underdog keeps this one close! Take the points with Oregon State. |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Oregon +10.5 v. UCLA | Top | 84-81 | Win | 100 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
UCLA is 10-1 and ranked third in the country. But they are 0-2 ATS since returning to the court from a near month-long layoff. Last week the Bruins did not cover against Long Beach State or against California. Considering Cal only made 1 of its 14 three-point attempts, it’s rather shocking UCLA couldn’t win that game by more than eight points. Oregon is a much tougher opponent than Cal (or Long Beach State). The Ducks and Bruins met just once last year. The Ducks won 82-74. The teams played just once in the 2019-20 season. The Ducks won that one as well, 96-75. Both games took place in Eugene. But the Ducks did just win on the road Monday, despite allowing 53.4% shooting. They beat Oregon State 78-76. It was their third straight win. They’ve got confidence entering this game. UCLA has played only four games since the start of December. That kind of inactivity leaves them prone to a potential upset here. Grab the points with OREGON |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Thunder v. Nets -8.5 | Top | 130-109 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
After thrashing the Bulls 138-112 last night, Brooklyn is back at home Thursday to play Oklahoma City. That means no Kyrie Irving (unvaccinated) but it’s not like the Thunder should provide a ton of resistance here. My view is that after seven straight ATS losses (going into last night), the Nets are due to pick up steam. Due to the blowout nature of last night’s game, Steve Nash was able to give some much needed rest to key players. Kevin Durant played just 30 minutes while James Harden played 33. That duo still found a way to combine for 52 points against the Bulls. We should get similar production, if not more, with them on the court for a longer amount of time tonight. Oklahoma City has lost five in a row and hasn’t been able to even score 100 points in five of its last seven games. They are last in the league in scoring, a big problem when getting ready to face Brooklyn, who is one of the top scoring teams. Back in November, the Nets beat the Thunder 120-96 and they were nine point ROAD favorites. It wasn’t the second night of a back to back, but there was no Irving. The real sad thing for the Thunder is that they turned in one of their better offensive games on Tuesday and still lost. I don’t think they’re going to score a ton of points tonight, so lay the points with BROOKLYN. |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Ohio State +4 v. Wisconsin | Top | 68-78 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Not sure Wisconsin deserves to be ranked #13 in the country at this moment. Granted, the Badgers are 13-2 and on a five-game win streak. But they are the third highest ranked Big 10 team right now. Does anyone really believe this is the third best team in this ultra-strong conference. Four of the wins during Wisconsin’s current streak have been by five points or fewer. They did go to Purdue and pull an upset, give the Badgers credit for that. But some of the other close calls were against Nicholls State and Illinois State. This week saw the Badgers move up 10 spots in the Top 25. I’m really salivating at this opportunity to fade them. It helps that they are facing Ohio State, who won the first meeting 73-55 in Columbus. Wisconsin was dominated on the glass in that game and was held to 33.8% from the floor, including 6 of 26 from behind the arc. The Buckeyes have lost only one time in their last seven games. They beat Duke earlier this year. I get the revenge angle being in play, but I think Ohio State is better. So TAKE THE POINTS. |
|||||||
01-13-22 | Florida Atlantic v. Middle Tennessee -3.5 | Top | 57-70 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Middle Tennessee finds itself on a three-game losing streak. But the Blue Raiders are 10-2 against the spread in 2021-22. There’s only two teams with a higher percentage of covering games. MT is 5-0 ATS when favored. So this is precisely the kind of spot where you want to back them. The opponent is Florida Atlantic, who is 7-6 and coming off a win at Marshall. But it’s been an up and down year for the Owls. Before going to Marshall and pulling the upset, FAU was an upset victim at the hands of High Point, which was also a road game. The three straight losses that MT has suffered all came on the road. They are 6-0 at home, winning by almost 23 points per contest. FAU had not won on the road prior to their last game. They are just 7-22 in the last 29 games outside of Boca Raton. They’d been off for almost three weeks when they won at Marshall. Laying a small number with MT, at home, just makes sense here. |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Virginia Tech v. Virginia -1 | Top | 52-54 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
Both Commonwealth teams are off losses. Virginia had no answers for North Carolina’s Armando Bacot in a 74-58 loss on Saturday. Virginia Tech has lost two in a row and six of nine while dealing with COVID. Several factors have me on Virginia here. The Cavaliers are at home, after playing three straight on the road. They are still a top 25 team (barely) and only giving up 58.8 points per contest. Virginia Tech gives up a similar number of points per game, however that number has started to rise after losses to Duke and NC State. The latter loss occurred after a two-week break induced by COVID and the Hokies seemed to falter down the stretch. Another problem for the Hokies is they’ve managed to top 65 points just two times in the last nine games. You don’t see Virginia as this small of a home favorite all that often. They are better than how they’ve performed ATS at home so far. Virginia Tech has been an underdog two times previous to this. They lost both games. They are 5-12 SU the last 17 tries as a dog. Play on VIRGINIA |
|||||||
01-12-22 | Mavs v. Knicks UNDER 206 | Top | 85-108 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
The Under has now hit in six of Dallas’ last seven games. The lone exception came when they hung 130 points on a lousy Houston team. The last six games have all been wins for the Mavericks and in five of them, they have held their opponent below 100 points. The Under has hit in seven of New York’s last nine games. One of the two exceptions came in a miracle comeback over Boston. In all seven Unders, the Knicks were able to hold their opponents below 100 points. So we’ve got two teams that are consistently doing something you don’t see all that often in the modern NBA - hold the opposition to double digits. Furthermore, you’ve got the Knicks often struggling to score 100 themselves. Four times in the last eight games, they have scored 96 points or less. These recent defensive efforts - from both teams - are not new. Both rank in the top five in scoring defense for the season. So take the UNDER here. |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Penguins v. Ducks UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-1 | Win | 105 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The Penguins have played well on the road and are one loss away from a very lengthy win streak. They have very solid defense and a terrific starting goaltender in Jarry, but just lost their hottest scorer since the break to covid. The Ducks struggle to score on the top tier teams, but are very good at home. The last meeting of these two teams ended 1-0, and they have a history of other low totals. While low-scoring games haven't been common in the new year, here is a situation where it just might happen. Take the Penguins and Ducks to go under. |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Auburn v. Alabama -2 | Top | 81-77 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 8 m | Show |
These are two of the five teams that believe they can win a SEC Championship this season. Kentucky, LSU and Tennessee are the others. Auburn is now being projected as a 1-seed by Joe Lunardi, but I’m not convinced they’re going to end up in that lofty position. Sell the Tigers here in what will be a very tough environment. The mood in Tuscaloosa figures to be a bit “dour” as the football team just lost the National Championship Game last night. Also, the basketball team lost at Missouri on Saturday, as a 14-point favorite. Off that kind of loss, the Crimson Tide should come out motivated here, looking to raise the spirits of those on campus. Alabama has not lost at home. They are 7-0 here this season and have won 10 of the last 12 times they’ve hosted Auburn. The Tide have also not lost back to back games this season. Previous wins over Houston and Gonzaga show Bama can beat anyone. Auburn hasn’t faced many strong teams during their 11-game win streak, save for LSU and that was a home game. Road games with a total of 150 to 159.5 have seen the Tigers go just 2-11 ATS. Play on ALABAMA. |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Suns v. Raptors UNDER 224 | Top | 99-95 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
Toronto’s long stretch of Overs (had hit 10 in a row) finally came to an end on Sunday. Their game vs. New Orleans ended up 105-101, coming nowhere close to the 221-point total. The Raptors were a bit lucky to win that one as they trailed by three with three minutes to go in what was a back and forth game. But at the end of the day, the Raptors did win. The Over streak may have ended, but of greater significance to them was that it was their seventh straight win. This streak has catapulted them to seventh in the East. It will be a tough game here vs. Phoenix, who is off a shocking 23-point loss to a Miami team that was without several players. The Suns don’t lose often - just six times in the last 35 games - so the Raptors are in for a tough one on Tuesday. Look for the Suns to tighten the screws defensively after allowing 123 points in their last game. That matched their most allowed in any game since October. Over the full season, teams only score 105 PPG on Phoenix. I expect to see some more Unders out of Toronto games in the near future, this one included. Of the ten straight that went Over, only one game had a higher O/U line than this one does. Play UNDER |
|||||||
01-11-22 | Thunder v. Wizards OVER 216 | Top | 118-122 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
Though Oklahoma City is the lowest scoring team in the league, a matchup with Washington should lead to more points than usual. The Wizards don’t defend particularly well. In the last game that they played, the Wizards held the Magic to 100 points and 39.6% shooting. But that is atypical. The previous four games saw the Wiz allow 120, 121, 114 and 130 points. The Thunder are long overdue to hot night shooting as it’s been seven straight games with a field goal percentage no higher than 43.2. One player to watch from the Thunder is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who has only made 5 of his last 24 three-point attempts. Gilgeous-Alexander is shooting a career-low from three this season, but I’m banking on him having a bit of a breakout performance tonight. The problem for Oklahoma City in this game is that it is highly unlikely they will hold Washington to a similar shooting percentage as they did Denver on Sunday. They kept the Nuggets under 100 points as a result of 41.6% shooting, but remember the game before that Minnesota shot 55% against OKC. The Wizards are also FINALLY getting back Rui Hachimura, who should help improve the team’s woeful shooting from the last game where they made only 40%. The bottom line is both these teams are going to shoot better than they did in their last games. So take the OVER. |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Georgia v. Alabama +3 | Top | 33-18 | Loss | -110 | 177 h 19 m | Show |
Neither SEC team had much difficulty winning on New Year’s Eve. Alabama beat Cincinnati 27-6 in one semifinal. Georgia beat Michigan 34-11 in the second semifinal. Now it’s a rematch of the SEC Championship Game, only this time a much bigger prize is on the line - the National Championship. Alabama beat Georgia in the SEC Championship Game, 41-24 as a six-point underdog. The Crimson Tide are again underdogs here, although the line is obviously shorter. But it’s hard for me to shake what happened back on December 4th. I expect the Tide to win again here and give Nick Saban his seventh National Championship since coming to Tuscaloosa (and third in the past five years). Bama’s offense is simply way better than any other that Georgia has faced this year. The Tide account for nearly one-third of the points allowed by the Bulldogs’ defense this season. The SEC Championship is the only time Alabama has been an underdog in many, many years. It’s a little surprising that the oddsmakers don’t have them favored for this rematch. They have dominated Georgia, winning the previous seven matchups. The last time Bama lost to Georgia was Saban’s first season here, which was 2007, the last season where the Tide weren’t ranked #1 at some point. Georgia has not covered the spread in back-to-back games since starting the year out at 5-1 ATS. Alabama is clearly a “psychological hurdle” for them and one they are unlikely to clear on the 10th. Take the points with ALABAMA. |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Bucks v. Hornets OVER 234.5 | Top | 99-103 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 1 m | Show |
The Bucks and Hornets just played on Saturday and surprisingly it was Charlotte coming out ahead 114-106 as a one-point home favorite. Milwaukee was a bit short-handed for that one. Two of the three players that were out because of COVID-19 could return to the lineup tonight. Regardless if they do or not, I like this rematch to be a lot higher scoring than Saturday. The Bucks got 43 points from Giannis Antetokounmpo on Saturday, but that wasn’t enough as the rest of the team scored just 63 and was 24 of 70 from the field. That’s just 34%, a truly horrible number and something you should expect they’ll improve upon for tonight. Milwaukee puts up 112.1 points per contest. Expect them to best that season average here as Charlotte has the worst scoring defense in the East at 116.3 points allowed per game. But the Hornets can score with the best of them. They average 115.5 points per contest, making them one of two teams to average more than the Bucks. It’s a little surprising to see the Hornets are “just” 20-13 Over on the year. Then again, this is going to be the 14th time that one of their games has a total that’s higher than 230. The last game, with Milwaukee shooting so poorly, saw only 220 points scored. But the first time the teams met this year, there were a combined 252 points scored. Look for something along those lines in the rubber match and take the OVER. |
|||||||
01-10-22 | Campbell v. Winthrop -4 | Top | 72-74 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 51 m | Show |
After losing three straight games, each time as a favorite, Campbell finds itself as a slight underdog to Winthrop on Monday. Winthrop, who has not played since 12/21, has dominated this Big South rivalry, taking the last seven meetings. They’ve lost their last two games, so motivation will be high for both teams. Though Campbell is 3-0 ATS as an underdog this season and Winthrop is 0-5 ATS as a favorite, I am backing the chalk in this one. This is for a number of reasons. One is where the game is being played. Winthrop has won all three previous home games this year while averaging 85 points. Campbell’s last win over a Division I foe took place all the way back on November 27th. They defeated Stetson by just two points. Though Campbell is perfect against the spread when getting points, they were underdogs of 7.5 or more in all three games. As a road underdog of 3.5 to 6 points, the Fighting Camels are 1-5 ATS in their last six. Last Wednesday was their first game since 12/22 and they shot just 40% overall and 16.7% from behind the arc. Winthrop obviously has had Campbell’s number in the past. These teams play very different brands of basketball. Winthrop likes to get out and run while Campbell plays slow. The problem for the Camels is they only average 61.7 points per contest on the road. As a small underdog, that’s not nearly enough to cover against Winthrop on the road. Lay the points with WINTHROP |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Cavs v. Warriors -10 | Top | 82-96 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
Golden State will finally get Klay Thompson back on Sunday. It’ll be a familiar foe Thompson and the Warriors are up against. Cleveland is the team they played in four consecutive NBA Finals (2015-18) and they won three of them. Klay hasn't played a single minute since landing awkwardly on his leg in the 2019 NBA Finals. After that, he then tore his Achilles in November of 2020. That's now 900+ days of being sidelined. Over the course of his career, Thompson is shooting an extraordinary 41.9% from deep. He's also accomplished one of the most incredible feats in NBA History. 37pts on 13/13 shooting in a SINGLE QUARTER. I mean that's a great game for most people. He went on to score 52 in the game. Also, Klay once dropped 43 pts while taking only 4 dribbles. Some things that this man has done are just out of this world. Cleveland has been a major surprise this season, which is emphasized by them having the NBA’s best against the spread record. But I think the oddsmakers are going to catch up with the Cavs over these next couple months. While this is obviously a big spread, it really says something about how oddsmakers’ perceive the Cavs compared to one of the top teams in the league. Thompson’s return couldn’t have come at a better time as the Warriors have lost two in a row for the first time this season. Steph Curry and Draymond Green missed the last game, a 101-96 loss in New Orleans, but they are both listed as probable to join Thompson on the court Sunday. Lay the points with GOLDEN STATE |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Chargers v. Raiders OVER 48.5 | Top | 32-35 | Win | 100 | 13 h 44 m | Show |
This “win or done” matchup features two very good quarterbacks and a pair of often unimpressive offenses. The Raiders have been tough to score on lately. Their pass defense has been surprisingly good in their last three games, but they haven’t faced a strong pass-first offense since the Chiefs, who badly mauled them. The Chargers, as good as their offense has been, give up a ton of points, and often to unlikely teams (41 points to Houston). They also struggled against the Chiefs. Both these teams defend poorly in the red zone. Herbert is the wonder boy these days but he is still relatively inexperienced. It will be interesting to see how he plays in a the Raiders’ loud and hostile stadium in playoff-like conditions. Carr is very much the veteran and at home. How is this one going to play out? I think Carr and the Raiders will put up points against a weak and regressing Chargers defense. I also think that the Raiders will not be able to handle the ‘Herbert and Ekeler’ duo as easily as their last three opponents. Tough call on the winner, but look for plenty of points. Take the Chargers and Raiders to go over the total. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Saints -4 v. Falcons | Top | 30-20 | Win | 100 | 150 h 44 m | Show |
The Saints are still in the playoff picture and the Falcons aren’t. All the talk of the Falcons as spoilers is nothing like the impetus of still playing for the post season. This and the Saints’ absolutely dominant defense, arguably the best against the run and hugely improved vs the pass of late, will push the Saints past the Falcons. As much as the Saints defense has improved, the Falcons’ defense has regressed. They are bottom 6 in points allowed, red zone defense, and 32nd and slipping in Qb sacks. They allowed 175 yards rushing over their last three games. Their offense is also trending down, averaging just 16 points scored over their last three games. Ryan has been sacked 37 times, including 5 last week. Will the Saints cover? They bumped their points-for up to 18 last week. Hill should have plenty of protection, and did get something going with two of his receivers, Kamara and Callaway. He is a big threat to run and the Falcons don’t fare well against a QB who can run. The Saints are healthier than they have been, and have a solid rush attack, possibly including Ingram as well as Kamara. While I am not expecting a blow-out, I am wagering on the Saints to cover as well as win. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Cleveland State -2.5 v. Youngstown State | Top | 86-80 | Win | 100 | 6 h 16 m | Show |
Cleveland State is off a one-point win at Robert Morris. That puts the Vikings at 5-0 in Horizon League play. They’ve won three straight and 9 of 10 overall. The only loss in that stretch of games came by five points, in overtime, at Oklahoma State (a team that just beat Texas on Saturday!) The Vikings’ success in the Horizon League dates back to last season when they shared the regular season crown with Wright State and then won the Conference Tournament. CSU should not have much difficulty defeating in-state rival Youngstown State this afternoon. YSU is coming off a loss, 71-61 to IPFW, leaving them at 9-6 overall and 2-3 the last five games. One of the Penguins’ two recent victories was against a non-DI team. The other win was by four at last place Robert Morris. The last three losses have been by a total of 55 points. These two Ohio schools simply are not in the same class. Cleveland State swept the two games last year, winning by an average of 16 points. The Vikings have covered 32 of the last 46 Horizon League games and in addition to that, they are 3-0 ATS the L3 times they’ve been a road favorite of three points or less. Youngstown State has only covered one of six home games this year and they aren’t getting nearly enough here to buck that trend. Lay the points in this one with CLEVELAND STATE |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Colts v. Jaguars UNDER 44 | Top | 11-26 | Win | 100 | 39 h 1 m | Show |
The Colts really need this win, and will be all in. The Jaguars? Who knows? They've played the Colts tough, with an embarrassingly ( for the Colts) long streak of home victories, and with a relatively close game earlier in the season. There is also their ranking and the #1 draft pick situation to consider. I am sure that the Colts will win this game, but by how much is the question. The Colts don't need to grind the Jaguars into the ground, so playing full out for the full 60 minutes may not be necessary. The Jaguars don't put up a ton of points, and the Colts' offensive numbers have regressed somewhat. Where the Colts have improved is that they are tougher to score against. They are a run-first offense, and it would make no sense to change the game plan for the sake of running up the score. Of all the options in this game, I am most comfortable with a lower total. I am wagering the Colts lead comfortably, then shut the Jaguars down. Take the UNDER today. |
|||||||
01-09-22 | Titans -10 v. Texans | Top | 28-25 | Loss | -110 | 24 h 58 m | Show |
The Titans face the Texans in a key game for their play off hopes. They are playing for a bye week, and with their “ultra RB’ Henry near a return, it would be very significant win. The Titans will leave nothing to chance with the memory of a very poor effort against the Texans still strong. The Titans defense was absolutely formidable last week, holding Miami to 3 points. They are healthier, with all defensive categories markedly improved over the last three weeks. The Texans’ defense is particularly poor vs. the run; last in yards allowed and 2nd last in rush tds allowed. This kind of performance is obviously a very poor match with the Titans’ strengths. Even without Henry, the Titans’ run-first offense has been taking great strides, averaging 163 yards a game in their last three starts. Tannehill will remember his last game vs Houston as he was sacked 7 times. The Texans don’t generally apply that much pressure. Look for the Tennessee O-line to do a better job of protection, with Tannehill only throwing as needed. Rookie David Mills appears to be settling in with the Texans, but will likely face intense pressure on game day. I am wary of a wide spreads in week 18, but I think the Titans will be all in until the end on this one. Who knows what kind of effort to expect from the Texans? I am confident that the Titans will win and cover on Sunday. |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Magic v. Pistons -1.5 | Top | 92-97 | Win | 100 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
Orlando and Detroit have the two worst records in the NBA. Orlando is 7-32. Detroit is 7-30. Someone’s gotta win here and I think it will be Detroit. Orlando has lost seven in a row. Though Detroit is coming off consecutive 30 point defeats, both of those were on the road. They’d won two straight prior to those losses. The last time the Pistons were at home, they beat San Antonio. Then they went out and won in Milwaukee, which was rather shocking. Back in October, they won the first matchup of the year with Orlando, 110-103 as six-point favorites. The line is obviously much shorter this time and that’s why we like it. No way you can take Orlando getting such a short number on the road. Having won a couple of games recently and playing at home, the Pistons should be more confident heading into this one. They are on an 11-3 ATS run following an ATS loss. Also giving them confidence is the fact they are 6-2 ATS the last eight meetings with Orlando and 5-1 ATS the last six meetings here in Detroit. Take the PISTONS |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Chiefs v. Broncos UNDER 45 | Top | 28-24 | Loss | -107 | 27 h 40 m | Show |
The Chiefs meet the Broncos in a very meaningful game for K.C., but not really for Denver. After limiting opposing teams' offense in the extreme, the Chiefs have given up two high totals in three games, and seen their defensive stats plummet. As much as the Chiefs need a win, this is also their last chance to right the ship on defense before the post season. The good news is that they face Drew Lock, rather than Burrow or Herbert. While this is not a really meaningful game for the Broncos other than Lock, it is a home game, so look for some effort. The Denver defense stumbled last week but has held most teams to under 20 points, or in the case of the Chiefs last time out, 22 points. Their offense has stumbled for more than a week, averaging only 12 points for the last 3 games. Both teams appear to be over the worst of covid, touch wood, but the Chiefs are missing their best RB, and the Broncos, their QB and other significant players. Look for the Chiefs to focus on defense in this game. Look for a return to the tight defense they showed for much of the year, with the Broncos struggling to put points on the board. If the Broncos do play all out, they have the potential to slow the Chiefs' potentially explosive offense. I am wagering on the total to go under. |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Kansas -4 v. Texas Tech | Top | 67-75 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 59 m | Show |
Texas Tech let us down in the game vs. Iowa State, losing 51-47 in what was an ugly performance from both teams. Unfortunately for Red Raiders’ fans, they face an even tougher opponent on Saturday, that being Kansas. The #6 ranked Jayhawks may not be the favorites in the Big 12 this year (Baylor is), but they remain formidable. Their record is 12-1 and that one loss was by one point, on a buzzer-beater, against Dayton in a Holiday tournament. Earlier in the week, KU easily defeated Oklahoma State on the road. It was 74-63 as 6.5 point favorites. The Jayhawks have covered 25 of their last 37 conference games. Texas Tech’s dreadful shooting in the loss to Iowa State is cause for concern here. The Red Raiders shot 38.8% overall and made only 3 of 17 tries from three. It would be one thing if that were an isolated event. But it was the third time in the last six games where TT did not score 60 points. Kansas has little difficulty scoring. They average 84.3 points per contest, which is top seven in the country. They scored 73 in the last game despite missing 20 straight shots at one point. Texas Tech, while often good defensively, just can’t compete with this team. Lay the points with KANSAS |
|||||||
01-08-22 | Wichita State v. Houston OVER 132.5 | Top | 66-76 | Win | 100 | 4 h 60 m | Show |
more analysis to come |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Kings v. Nuggets -7.5 | Top | 111-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 21 m | Show |
Denver badly needs to win tonight as they’ve lost their last two games. The losing is tied to injuries and COVID-related absences. But Nikola Jokic is still here and he had 26-21-11 the other night. The Nuggets lost that game, but only by six to a very good opponent (Utah). Facing a “lesser” team tonight, I look for the Nuggets to get back into the win column. They’ve had only one losing streak longer than two games all year. Sacramento has also dropped two in a row. Recently, they’ve been losing to teams that have been without their superstars. There was a loss to Dallas (who was without Doncic), a loss to the Lakers (who didn’t have LeBron or Davis) and most recently a loss to Atlanta (who was without Young, Collins and Bogdanovic). Unlike Denver, the Kings don’t have a Jokic that they can count on to help turn things around. Defensively, Sacramento really struggles on the road. They give up 117.4 points per game when playing away from home. Lay the points with DENVER here. |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Xavier v. Butler +5.5 | Top | 87-72 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 39 m | Show |
Both Xavier and Butler are off losses here. But, for Xavier, that loss was all the way back on 12/21 - to Villanova 71-58. There’s actually been only one cancellation for the Musketeers - that being Tuesday’s scheduled game vs. Georgetown. So it’s not like this long stretch of inactivity was unexpected. Still though, the #22 team in the country is likely to be “rusty” on Friday night. Butler did play Tuesday and lost 71-56 to a good Seton Hall team. So this marks the second straight home game vs. a Top 25 opponent. The Bulldogs were 6-1 in Hinkle Fieldhouse prior to losing to Seton Hall. Defensively, there’s nothing wrong with what Butler is doing. At home, they are allowing less than 60 points per contest. This will be just the third true road game for Xavier. They did win at Oklahoma State, but as I mentioned before lost at Villanova. The Musketeers were not favored in either of those two previous road tilts. They are here. Xavier is 0-4 ATS the last four times it has been a road favorite. Take the points with BUTLER here. |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Spurs v. 76ers UNDER 218.5 | Top | 100-119 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 20 m | Show |
The Spurs and 76ers are going in opposite directions right now. The former had lost four in a row before picking up a low-scoring, 99-97 win over Boston. The latter has now won five in a row after winning 116-106 in Orlando 48 hours ago. I anticipate tonight’s clash being relatively low-scoring and am hopping on the Under. Philadelphia’s win streak has coincided with an uptick in scoring. They’ve averaged 118 points in the five wins. But four of the wins have come on the road. At home, this team is only 7-8 straight up and 11-4 to the Under. San Antonio is 13-6 Under in road games this season. This will be their fifth straight road game. Even though they did win the last one, we saw them struggle to score with just 99 points. That was with four starters putting up double figures. Going back to December 27th, the only team that the Spurs have scored more than 105 against was the Pistons. The 76ers have limited the last five opponents to 105.2 PPG on 42.8% shooting. Go with the UNDER in this one. |
|||||||
01-07-22 | Flames v. Hurricanes UNDER 6 | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
These are the two best defenses in the NHL, with, not surprisingly, two of the premier goaltenders. Calgary has had trouble scoring on this road trip, but the Canes haven't. Calgary is on a back to back, and off a loss. The total is high, reflecting the number of high scoring games since the break. I like the under today. It should be something of a goaltenders duel, with Marky and Andersen, mano a mano, showing their stuff. |
|||||||
01-06-22 | USC v. California +5.5 | Top | 77-63 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
USC is one of three teams still undefeated. They are 12-0 and ranked in the top ten. But it’s been almost three weeks since the Trojans last played a game. I think all the postponements/cancellations lead to a rusty performance tonight against California. In the time Southern Cal has been out of action, Cal has gotten three games in. They won all three. Overall, they’ve won five straight. The Bears beat Arizona State by 24 on Sunday, a nice warm-up for this game. It was their ninth straight win at home. The Bears only loss in Berkeley so far was the season opener. They are 8-2 ATS in home games and 8-1 ATS their last nine games, period. Thus far, Southern Cal has played only three true road games. Two of them were wins by five points or less. The last one was a two-point win at Washington State. This shapes up to be the Trojans’ most difficult game to date. Cal’s home success is not limited to this year. They are 29-14 ATS L43 home games. Take the points in this one. |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Panthers -124 v. Stars | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -124 | 13 h 16 m | Show |
The Panthers are 4 games into the new year after the extended break, and have chalked up 4 victories, scoring 24 goals and giving up 10. And no, this is not the NFL Panthers! Bobrovsky is a rare netminder who didn't falter after such a long pause. He stopped 47 of 49 shots against a tough Flames team last time out. On the flip side, this will be the Stars' first game back, and I am not expecting them to pick up where they left off two weeks ago. Holtby will likely go through the usual breaking-in period, and the Stars, 22nd in the league in goals scored, have had trouble putting the puck in the net this season. Dallas is a very good home team, and the Panthers have struggled on the road, but Florida has also beaten three very good teams lately, and should be much more in the groove. I don't see the Ducks winning this game. Take the Panthers. The odds are decidedly favorable. |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Warriors v. Pelicans +2.5 | Top | 96-101 | Win | 100 | 10 h 9 m | Show |
Golden State finds itself in a real predicament tonight. Steph Curry, already mired in a shooting slump, suffered a quad contusion in last night’s loss to Dallas and almost certainly isn’t going to play tonight as a a result. It was a really poor effort from the Warriors last night as they lost 99-82 to the Mavericks. Curry was just 5 of 24 on field goal attempts, which included 1 of 9 on three pointers. He finished with 14 points. The team was only 5 of 28 on three last night. It is next to impossible to fill Curry’s shoes, especially with Klay Thompson still not back. Were Curry playing here, then I’d say there’s an excellent chance Golden State would bounce back from last night’s shooting slump. But that’s not the case, After facing last year’s NBA Champs and two of the West’s top three teams, New Orleans is getting a big break here with Curry injured. The Pelicans need to start winning as they are just 13-25 this year. It’s an opportunity the Pelicans must take advantage of here. They’d won five of six before losing the last three. Leading scorer Brandon Ingram has struggled in back to back games, but should bounce back here. Take the points. |
|||||||
01-06-22 | Celtics v. Knicks UNDER 210 | Top | 105-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
Boston has seen the Under hit in six of its previous eight games. Last night’s game, a 99-97 loss to San Antonio, obviously stayed Under the total. The Celtics attempted only nine free throws in that loss and missed 19 of 28 threes. Tonight, the Celtics are in New York to face a Knicks team that is on a 5-1 Under run. The Knicks also struggled from long-range in their last game, missing 22 of 28 threes. But they still won, beating Indiana 104-94. There were a lot of free throws attempted in that game (60) and I don’t see that number repeating itself for this game. Case in point, there were 47 and 50 combined free throws attempted the first two times these teams met this year. Both games did go Over, but one was a 2OT game. Boston is shooting only 42.8% its last five games, so they are in a slump. Their last three road games all stayed Under. New York has averaged only 95.8 points over its past five games. But they’ve also only given up an average of 96.4 points. I’d say this has all the makings of a low-scoring game, so take the UNDER. |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Texas Tech +2.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 47-51 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Texas Tech is ranked #25 in the country and I believe they are worthy of that ranking. I feel much differently about Iowa State, who checks in ranked #11 in the country. The Cyclones just suffered their first loss of the year and it was to #1 Baylor, here at home, 77-72 on New Year’s Day. But just because ISU started the year by winning its first 12 games doesn’t necessarily mean this is one of the best teams in the country. On the contrary, if you check out the various power ranking systems, you’ll see that Iowa State is not viewed as favorably by the oddsmakers as they are by the pollsters. They’ve been an underdog in five games, covering all five. That’s nice, but unlikely to continue. The Cyclones finished last year with a 2-22 record! They were 0-18 in the Big 12, the first time a team went winless in this conference since TCU in 2014. Texas Tech has had Iowa State’s number the last two years. The Red Raiders have won - and covered - all four meetings. All four wins have been by at least 20 points. Iowa State is a team you’re going to want to start fading. I obviously expect them to lose tonight. Texas Tech is a top 10 team defensively that limits opponents to 31% shooting on threes. Iowa State was 1 of 14 on three point attempts vs. Baylor. Take the points with TEXAS TECH |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Blues v. Penguins OVER 6 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
Although Jarry has been terrific in the net for the Penguins for most of the season, he wasn't at his best before the break and has now been off for 2 weeks+. Binnington allowed 4 goals in his first game back. Low scoring affairs have been few and far between in the NHL since the overlong play stoppage. Both these teams can put the puck in the net and proved it in their last games; the Blues scoring 6 and the Penguins 8. The Blues are as healthy as they have been in ages, and have a mean PP going. The Penguins still have the odd injury but that has not fazed them this season. Whether Jarry is in the net or not, I am still wagering on the over. Too much firepower here for returning goalies. |
|||||||
01-05-22 | 76ers v. Magic UNDER 210.5 | Top | 116-106 | Loss | -105 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Philadelphia scored 133 points its last time out. I don’t see them doing that again here. The 76ers shot 52% Monday against Houston, who were without a true center and thus had no answers for Joel Embiid, who went for 31 points and had his third career triple double. Embiid has averaged 36.3 points in his last seven road games. Impressive, but not a number he’ll be able to sustain. Orlando is one of the worst offensive teams in the NBA. Only the Pistons and Thunder have scored less. The Magic failed to hit 100 in their last game, losing 102-98 to Chicago. That was the eighth time since Thanksgiving that they were held under triple digits. It’s happened 17 times this season and they’ve lost every time. A likely offensive decline from Embiid and Phily, plus the fact Orlando just isn’t very good, has me on the Under in this matchup. The last time these teams met, they combined to score 197 points. The 76ers won 101-96. The Under is 22-14 in all Sixers’ games this season. That includes 16-8 when having exactly one day of rest in between games as they do here. |
|||||||
01-05-22 | Rockets +7 v. Wizards | Top | 114-111 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
I know things haven’t been pretty for Houston of late with losses piling up and some “insubordination” to boot. The team has lost eight in a row, all by at least nine points. But tonight the Rockets will have a full complement of players and they are taking on a Washington team that doesn’t blow many opponents out. Going back to mid-November, the Wizards have just one win that came by greater than seven points. It was against a Cleveland team that was severely undermanned because of COVID. Since starting the season 10-3, Washington is six games below .500 and a lot of underlying metrics suggest they are very lucky to be in seventh place in the Eastern Conference standings. Five of the last six games have seen the Wizards give up 117 points or more. They actually own the third worst point differential in the conference! The team did win on Monday, but by only three points over Charlotte. Out West, you’ll find Houston at the bottom of the standings. This is their second losing streak of eight or more games this season, but remember they also had a seven-game win streak in between. A couple of players were suspended for Monday’s loss to the 76ers. Those players are going to be back in the lineup tonight. Just think this is too many points for a middling Washington team to be laying against anybody. Take HOUSTON plus the points |
|||||||
01-05-22 | VCU v. Dayton -2 | Top | 53-52 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 16 m | Show |
VCU has won four in a row while Dayton is just 2-2 in its last four. But this game takes place in Dayton and I think the home team is a bargain as a short favorite. The Flyers have won four straight at home. That includes wins by 38 and 39 points. They also upset Va Tech here. The last time the team was in action, it defeated Southern U 69-60. VCU doesn’t score a whole heck of a lot and they are 0-3 ATS the previous two years as a road underdog of three points or less. The Rams have had their last four games either postponed or cancelled because of COVID-19, so that four-game win streak doesn’t really mean all that much. It’s been three weeks since they last played a game. Offensively, VCU is only 272nd in adjusted efficiency. They shoot below 30% on three-point attempts and turn the ball over on nearly one-quarter of their possessions. Dayton has also had to postpone its last two games. But a key edge they have in this matchup comes on two-point field goals. The Flyers are 12th in the country in FG% inside the three-point line. I say lay the points with DAYTON |
|||||||
01-04-22 | LSU +5 v. Kansas State | Top | 20-42 | Loss | -110 | 34 h 26 m | Show |
We’ve seen a pretty substantial line move here due to the fact LSU lost its QB (transfer portal) and two of its top defensive players (opt outs). The Tigers will also have an interim coach after Ed Oregeron was dismissed in favor of Brian Kelly. But even so, LSU has more talent than Kansas State and I’ll gladly grab the points in the Texas Bowl. Kansas State is 7-5 but lost its last two games in pretty feeble fashion. They went down 20-10 to Baylor and 22-17 to Texas. The Wildcats are also dealing with turnover on the coaching staff as they’ll have a new offensive coordinator for Tuesday’s game. Also, QB Skyler Thompson suffered a lower leg injury late in the year. Can’t count on him being the same, even if he does decide to play here. Kansas State’s best win this year was probably … West Virginia? They won just two games away from home and one of them was by a single point. The other was at Kansas. The offense has averaged less than 300 yards in its last three games. It will be interesting to see if LSU elects to start Garrett Nussmeier, a decision that would cost the QB his redshirt season. Regardless, I expect the Tigers that do suit up to really play hard as they look to impress the incoming coaching staff. If LSU had its full complement of players, they would win this game in blowout fashion. Even down a few, they should still keep it close at the very worst. Take LSU plus the points |
|||||||
01-04-22 | Avalanche -1.5 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 14 m | Show |
Colorado faces the Blackhawks Tuesday night. Avs are tops in goals scored, the Blackhawks at the tail end (30th). The Avs have a potent powerplay against a very average Chicago PK. The Blackhawks have only two goals to show for their two games since the break. The Avs carried on right where they left off against a much tougher opponent in the Ducks. Fleury is expected back in the net, but he has been off for more than two weeks. Most goaltenders take a game or two at least to get back in playing form. Chicago was struggling before the break, and has now lost 4 straight, scoring only 6 goals and allowing 18. I very much like the Avs, but the odds are prohibitive. Not to worry. Take the Avs to win -1.5. they are worth the extra goals. |
|||||||
01-04-22 | Grizzlies +2.5 v. Cavs | Top | 110-106 | Win | 100 | 11 h 28 m | Show |
Both these teams have been defying expectations this season. The Grizzlies have gone 15-4 in their last 19 games, which includes a shocking 10-2 record in the 12 games they were without leading scorer Ja Morant. The Cavs have the best ATS record in the NBA right now at 24-11-2 ATS. But Cleveland is not close to being 100 percent right now. There are multiple injuries in the backcourt, including a season-ender to PG Ricky Rubio, which could be a crushing blow. Darius Garland could return to the lineup tonight, but he’s been in health and safety protocol for the last week. How effective will he be in his first game back? The Cavs did just beat Indiana on Sunday, 108-104. But they did not cover the spread. It was their fourth straight ATS loss, so predictably they are starting to “give some back” at the betting window. Before beating Indiana, they’d lost each of the previous three games straight up. Memphis won its fifth straight last night, beating Brooklyn 118-104 as a 6.5 point underdog. Morant, who is back, has scored 30 or more in four straight games. He had 37 when the Grizzlies beat the Cavs 132-121 in the opening game of the season. The Grizzlies are a better team than the Cavaliers. Not too worried about this being the second night of a back to back for the Grizz as they are hot right now and 9-3 this year when coming off a double digit win. Take MEMPHIS plus the points |
|||||||
01-04-22 | Florida State v. Wake Forest UNDER 146.5 | Top | 54-76 | Win | 100 | 11 h 18 m | Show |
7-4 Florida State invades Winston-Salem on Tuesday to take on 11-3 Wake Forest. The hosts have lost two in a row, but both defeats were on the road by single digits. FSU has won its last two games, including a narrow 83-81 win at NC State on New Year’s Day. Four of FSU’s last six games have been decided by three points or less. So they’re getting used to nail biters. Of the four close calls, the Seminoles have won two and lost two. They are 1-5 ATS in the last six games and their number of points scored and allowed has risen during this time. I think that this game will be a little more low-scoring. Now, predicting a low-scoring game may seem perplexing to some as Wake is coming off a 94-82 loss to Miami. But that was a road game. At home, the Demon Deacons are 8-0 and allowing only 64.1 points per contest. When they play host, opponents are shooting just 38.5% for the year. Miami shot better than 60% against Wake Forest on Saturday. Also, the Demon Deacons shot 54% themselves. Expect those percentages to come way down here. It’s rare to see both teams shoot that well in a game. Similarly, Florida State had to deal with a 32-point effort from NC State’s Dereon Seabron in its last game. It’s highly unlikely that anyone on Wake Forest is going to turn in that kind of singular effort tonight. FSU just missed out on covering its last time out. They are 7-2 Under the previous nine times they’ve been off an ATS loss. Play on UNDER |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Nuggets v. Mavs OVER 213 | Top | 89-103 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 5 m | Show |
These are two teams trying to cement their status in the Western Conference top six. Denver is already there, with an 18-16 overall record. The Nuggets have won three straight to move into fifth position. A couple spots lower is Dallas, who is 18-18 and in eighth place. But the Mavericks have won two straight themselves. I’m liking the Over here. Denver scored 124 points in its last game, despite being undermanned. Road games have been higher scoring than home games this year for the Nuggets. They average 107.4 points away from home, but also give up an average of 108.8. The Over is 7-3 in the Nuggets’ last 10 games following a straight up win. Dallas is getting players back, most notably Luka Doncic. It was a really low-scoring game last night with Oklahoma City, but the Mavericks still won 95-86. I want to point out that last night’s opponent is the lowest-scoring team in the NBA. The Mavs will certainly give up more points tonight as I can’t see them holding four straight opponents below 100 points. But also look for the Mavs to score more points tonight than they did last night. No one on the team scored more than 15 against the Thunder. They got only seven free throw attempts. Now at home, you got to figure they’ll get a lot more than that in tonight’s game. This is a low total, so play the Over. |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Browns v. Steelers UNDER 42 | Top | 14-26 | Win | 100 | 20 h 11 m | Show |
Both the Browns and the Steelers are teetering on the edge of a playoff-less season. Who ever loses on Monday is finished. The Browns are at their healthiest in some time. They have one of the best running backs in the business. The Steelers rank dead last in rush yards allowed and yards per attempt. Browns’ quarterback is playing wounded and it shows in his passing stats. Look for the Browns to deliver a steady diet of Nick Chubb and slow this game down. The Pittsburgh defense excels in sacks, passing yards allowed, and red zone defense, which with a rush-first opponent like the Browns, plays to a low total. There is a fair bit of hype about this being Roethlisberger’s swansong, but lets face it; he is retiring for a reason. While he is still accurate and doesn’t turn the ball over, his yards per game and yards/attempt have dropped. He is a bit of a sitting duck back there, and has been sacked with regularity this season. The flip side of Big Ben’s retirement is that there are a whole lot of Browns players who would like to make his last home game a memorable one, with a little payback. Pittsburgh has been running the ball more but they are up against a very stiff Browns run offense. The Browns are very solid against the pass as well, so don’t look for the Steelers, lower than average in points scored per game, to pile up the points. I like the total in this game. Look for a result similar to the Titans/Steelers. Take the under. |
|||||||
01-03-22 | Wisconsin v. Purdue -12.5 | Top | 74-69 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 24 m | Show |
Wisconsin is 10-2 but figures to be in for a proverbial “rude awakening” when they face #3 Purdue on Monday. The third-ranked Boilermakers have been exceptional so far, winning all eight home games by an average of 28 points per game. Their only loss was to Rutgers - on a buzzer-beater - back on Dec 9. West Lafayette has not been Wisconsin’s favorite place to visit. The Badgers are 4-42 here all-time and have failed to cover 14 of the previous 18 times. The last time the Badgers played a road game was at Ohio State on Dec 11. They lost there by 18 points. While Purdue has rolled to four straight double digit wins, Wisconsin was involved in a close call in their last game, only beating Illinois State by four points. That was after only beating Nicholls State by three points two weeks before, a game where they had to overcome a 12-point deficit. The Badgers were missing five reserves against Illinois State, a game which took place only five days ago, and all five are listed as questionable for tonight. This just looks like a total mismatch to us with Purdue having the most efficient offense in the country and Wisconsin only averaging 64 points when not playing in Madison. The home court advantage is huge. Take Purdue to win and cover. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Vikings v. Packers -13 | 10-37 | Win | 100 | 7 h 1 m | Show | |
Vikings/Packers I released this wager early and have a very favorable line personally. I still do really like this play though. The Vikes are down and out after last weekend's 30-23 loss to LA. Kirk Cousins had 315 yards and a TD, but Cousins is now out because of COVID protocol. Sean Mannion is the backup and I just can see him stepping up on such short notice and being productive whatsoever. Green Bay is now in the drivers seat in the NFC and this is an opportunity that I expect Aaron Rogers and company to take advantage of. The Packers are just a game up on Dallas, who owns the tiebreaker, and the Rams and Bucs are also just behind. Also note, Minnesota won't have TE and offensive star Adam Thelien playing either. This one is a "no brainer." Lay the points. 8* PACKERS |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Ohio State -9.5 v. Nebraska | Top | 87-79 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 16 m | Show |
Ohio State is already 2-0 in conference play, with wins over Penn State and Wisconsin. I think they’ll have little difficulty making it three straight Big 10 wins and five straight wins overall when they face struggling Nebraska tonight. The Cornhuskers did win their last game 88-74, but that was against Kennesaw State and they barely covered the 13.5-point spread. The ‘Huskers are 0-2 in Big 10 games so far, losing at Indiana by 13 and at home to Michigan by 35. They’ve lost five of six overall, three of the losses coming by double digits. This will be Ohio State’s first game since a December 11th win over Wisconsin. The Buckeyes have a win over Duke this year as well. They are 3-1 vs. Top 25 opponents this season and ranked #13 themselves. Nebraska is obviously not ranked and is really no match for the Buckeyes here. The Cornhuskers are 0-4 ATS their last four games as an underdog and 5-13 ATS their last 18 games as a home dog. Nebraska is shooting just 27.5% from three-point land this year. Ohio State is at 38.6%. Look for the Buckeyes to easily cover this number |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Heat -3.5 v. Kings | Top | 113-115 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
Miami may be undermanned at the moment, but they continue to win. Friday’s 120-110 triumph over Houston, which came on the heels of a game being postponed, was the Heat’s fifth straight victory. We think they’ve got enough to cover against Sacramento here on Sunday. On Friday, the Heat were led by Jimmy Butler, Tyler Herro and Kyle Lowry. That trio is strong enough to carry the team, moving forward. Butler scored a season-high 37 points vs. the Rockets. Going back a bit further, Miami has won seven of eight and has the best net efficiency rating this season in the Eastern Conference. While they are 23-13 on the season, Sacramento is just 15-22. The Kings were beaten by 16 here at home on New Year’s Eve. The loss was to Dallas, who they had just beaten on a buzzer-beater two days earlier. Sacramento has lost four of its last six, even though all but one of the games took place at home. They have a losing home record. The Kings’ biggest problem is lack of defense. They give up 113.7 points per contest, which is third most in the NBA. Also of concern is a 1-8 ATS run against teams that have winning records. Take Miami to win and cover here. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Panthers v. Saints -6.5 | Top | 10-18 | Win | 100 | 9 h 4 m | Show |
Comparing a team’s stats in their last few games to their seasons’ average can be informing. Looking at the Panthers’ defensive numbers, I’d say they’ve already broken out the golf clubs. The Panthers’ rush defense has not been up to much all season, but the pass defense was solid. In their past few games, their effectiveness has plummeted, which is good new for the Saints. The Saints have a running game with Kamara back and Hill at QB, but they need all the help they can get on pass offense. This will be as complete a lineup as the Saints have had in some time, so it will be interesting to see if they can put up more than 14 points, which is what they have averaged lately. The Saints defense has yet to stumble this year; top of the heap in red zone defense, great rushing defense and improving pass defense. Carolina doesn’t put up many points on the board, and again, that number has also tanked lately. The QB position has been an adventure, and their rushing yards are in decline. This is a rare opportunity for the Saints to put some points on the board, and help out their dwindling chances for a wild card spot. It is really a meaningless game for the Panthers other than for draft position, and an away game at that. I believe the Saints formidable defense will stymie the Panthers’ suspect offense. Take the Saints to win and cover. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Raiders v. Colts -6.5 | Top | 23-20 | Loss | -127 | 47 h 53 m | Show |
The Raiders face the Colts in a crucial game with both teams hit with some severity by covid. QB Wentz could be out for the Colts, which is not quite such a loss in the Colts’ run-first offense. Wentz was solid last week, but many weeks Wentz is not as prominent. Untested rookie Sam Ehlinger will likely replace him. The Colts’ O line has protected their passer effectively this year. One wrinkle in the mix is that Ehlinger is much more of a run threat than Wentz. Can the Colts still win and cover? No one has stopped Jonathon Taylor, and while Vegas has shown improvement in rush defense, they have not faced anyone like him. Of note, the Raiders are the very worst red-zone defenders in the NFL. The Raiders’ pass defense has been solid in yards allowed but they do allow more than their share of points, they don’t pressure Qbs especially well, and they don’t create many turnovers. The Colts defense has shown real improvement, giving up more than 17 points only once in their last 6 games, while facing very stiff competition. The Raiders are a pass-first offense, with Derek Carr the focus. Carr is banged up, which might account for the significant drop in passing yards over the last few games. The Raiders will again be missing Waller again this week. The Colts don’t pressure Qbs so much which is good because the Raiders are middle of the road in protecting Carr. The Colts are very adept at creating turnovers, while the Raiders give up the ball a lot. Much has been made of the loss of Wentz, but the Raiders are the more depleted of the two teams. The Colts have been terrific against the spread this year, and overpowering of late. I’m betting on the Colts to again win and cover. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Eagles -3 v. Washington Football Team | Top | 20-16 | Win | 100 | 39 h 55 m | Show |
There is very little good news on the injury front for a very disrupted WFT. Heinicke is beaten up and in the dog house, and top running back Gibson is out. This is a blow for a team struggling to put meat on the table (so to speak). The Football Team is up against a surging Eagles team, winners of 5 of 6 games, and needing a win to solidify their playoff hopes. The Eagles are top in the NFL with the run. Howard is questionable, but with the other backs and Hurts in the equation, they should be in good form. The Football Team is 8th in the league against the run but very much in freefall lately, allowing over 150 yards rushing in their last three games. Other than QB pressure, Washington is very poor against the pass. While the Eagles don’t rely on their passing game, Hurts has seen his QB stats climb lately. The Football team will have their hands full against an increasingly tough Eagles defense. Only 1 team in the last 8 has run for +100 yards against them, and they are top 10 in all of the pass defense categories other than sacks. They have been very stingy in points allowed, averaging just 15 over the last three games. In “what have you done lately” terms, this game is all Eagles. They beat the Football Team by 10 points 2 weeks ago, and I can’t see that Washington is in any better shape now. Barring a major underestimation by the Eagles, this game should be theirs for the taking. Take Philadelphia to win and cover. |
|||||||
01-02-22 | Falcons v. Bills -14.5 | 15-29 | Loss | -101 | 39 h 50 m | Show | |
The Bills are running hot and are fairly healthy, which is saying a lot. Allen is the QB of the moment with his fine performance last week, and he is up against a Falcons pass defense that is 23rd in yards allowed and 32nd in sacks. Giving Allen that kind of friendly environment will likely lead to a high total. The Falcons’ run defense is also on the average side, allowing more than 125 yds over their last three games. The Bills have averaged 135 rushing yards over their last three games, even though they are a pass-first offense. Singletary and Allen give the Bills much more flexibility in their running game. The Falcons aren’t scoring a ton of points, and they struggle badly against good teams. I remember vividly their 25 -0 loss to the Patriots, who the Bills beat up on last week. Atlanta's run game is worst in the league and sinking fast. Ryan is a competent QB, but he will be up against the league’s best pass defense, both in yards and yards/attempt. The Falcons have covid issues, much more at the moment than the Bills. Atlanta has been blown out more than a couple of times this year. Sunday’s game might just be one more nail in the playoff coffin. The points are high but I believe the Bills will win and cover. |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Pelicans v. Bucks -10.5 | Top | 113-136 | Win | 100 | 9 h 14 m | Show |
Pelicans/Bucks Tough spot for New Orleans going against one of the top teams in the league. Milwaukee has started to hit their stride with five straight wins, the last being a 136-118 beatdown of Orlando. Expect a similar final score in this game. The Bucks are averaging 121.6 points during the five-game win streak while allowing only 108.4. Giannis Antetokounmpo has been on a real tear, averaging 32.3 points and 10 rebounds the last three games while shooting 56.3 percent from the field. The Bucks’ bench has contributed at least 36 points in each of the last three games, so it’s been a very well-rounded effort from the defending champs at the offensive end of late. New Orleans has played some of its best ball of late, winning five of its last six games. They just beat Cleveland, who had several players out, 108-104 in their last game. But the Pelicans are dealing with several absences of their own right now. Three players are in health and safety protocols. Brandon Ingram, who generally carries the scoring load, is questionable with an Achilles injury. Milwaukee will remember losing to New Orleans in overtime two weeks ago and be out for revenge. The Pelicans are just 3-9 ATS their last 12 games as a road underdog. 10* NBA PLAYBOOK on MILWAUKEE |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Utah +4.5 v. Ohio State | Top | 45-48 | Win | 100 | 100 h 3 m | Show |
Utah/Ohio State Utah won't be rolling over here. The Utes have won six straight and all signs point to a possible big upset here as well. Most recently Utah beat Oregon 38-10 in the PAC 12 Championship, while Ohio State enters off a 42-27 loss to Michigan as a 6.5-point favorite. Utah has lost its last two bowl games, putting an added motivation incentive here. Overall the Utes averaged 35.1 PPG, while allowing 20.9. QB Cameron Rising had 2,279 yards, 18 TD's and only five INT's. With their nine-game win streak in the rear-view mirror, I believe the Buckeyes are ripe for the picking tonight. Ohio State and CJ Stroud average 45.5 PPG, while allowing 20.9. The Utes have won of the best running games in the country, averaging more than 200 yards per game. The Buckeyes have been great defensively (again) all season, but note that they're just 2-7 ATS in their last nine off a SU/ATS loss in which it conceded 40 or more points in. This one comes down to the wire, so let's grab the points! Utah 10* GAME OF MONTH. |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Baylor v. Iowa State UNDER 132.5 | Top | 77-72 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 48 m | Show |
Baylor/Iowa State These are two of the top teams in College Basketball. Baylor, the defending National Champions, is rated #1 in the country. Iowa State, also undefeated coming into this game, is #8. Expect a defensive-minded affair. The success of Iowa State this season has certainly been a bit shocking. Key to the success is them being one of the top defensive teams in the country. The Cyclones rank #7 in the number of points per possession allowed and give up just 56.1 points per game. But Baylor is even better defensively, in terms of the number of points per possession allowed. They are 4th in that department. Additionally, the Bears give up just 56.8 points per game. The last three Baylor games have all gone Over. But their last two opponents were Alcorn State and Northwestern State, two clearly overmatched teams. The Bears scored 94 and 104 points in those wins. They won’t be able to score anything close to that against Iowa State. Iowa State was 2-22 last year, so them turning around and starting this season 12–0 is something not anyone saw coming. Since the opener, the Cyclones have allowed more than 64 points in only one game. Neither of these teams like to play all that fast and it’s New Year’s Day, so the shots won’t be falling with any great regularity. 10* NEW YEAR’S SHOWDOWN on the UNDER Baylor/Iowa State |
|||||||
01-01-22 | Oklahoma State v. Notre Dame UNDER 46 | Top | 37-35 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 45 m | Show |
Oklahoma State/Notre Dame Oklahoma State went 11-2. The Cowboys would ultimately go on to lose to Baylor in the Big 12 Title game. Normally OKS is known for its high-octane offense, but they held opponents to just 17 points per game, which ranks seventh in the country. The Cowboys were ranked second in the country on allowed third down conversions, conceding just 25 percent of such instances. They also led the nation in sacks with 55. The offense took a step back this sesaon though, entering averaging 30 PPG, which ranks 50th. QB Spencer Sanders had a pedestrian season, throwing for 2,468 yards, but with a 16:14 TD:INT ratio. Brian Kelly has already left Notre Dame and several key players have opted out. Marcus Freeman is the new coach. Kyren Williams has left for the NFL. He was the team's leading rusher and had the second most TD's only behidn QB Jack Coan. The Irish rank ninth overall on the defensive end, conceding 18.3 PPG. Many new faces, but these defenses are elite. Each ranks in the Top 10. Expect them to be the main story line in tomorrow's summaries. 10* BOWL TOTAL OF YEAR. |
|||||||
12-31-21 | Cincinnati v. Alabama UNDER 57.5 | 6-27 | Win | 100 | 9 h 34 m | Show | |
No one but the BearCats think they have a chance in this game, but they are unbeaten, and playing against a Crimson Tide team that is not without stumbles this year. What does Cincinnati need to do to stay close to Alabama? Alabama is a pass- first offense generating over 400 yards avg. in their last three games, and they blew out Georgia’s fine pass defense last game. The Bearcats’ run defense has improved over the last three games and they are exceptional in red zone defense, so the Tide’s running game is not such a threat. Slowing the passing game is possible: the Bearcats’ sack totals over the last three games have risen dramatically, and they have limited opposing Qbs in yards and yard per attempt.. As far as the Crimson Tide’s defense goes, two things stand out; nobody has much success running on them, and they are tough on opposing Qbs. Cincinnati’s pass offense does not compare. They have had success running the ball in their last three games, but that likely will not wash against Alabama. Of all options in this game I like the total. The Alabama/Georgia game will be a roadmap for Cincinnati of where not to go. I don’t see the Bearcats scoring a ton of points, but I do see them holding Alabama to respectable levels. Look for the Bearcats to key on Bryce Young, and take away some of those huge plays. Take the total to go Under. |
|||||||
12-30-21 | Pittsburgh +3 v. Michigan State | 21-31 | Loss | -108 | 10 h 24 m | Show | |
Pittsburgh/Michigan State I absolutely believe that this one favors the 11-2 Pittsburgh Panthers. Michigan State is only the "home" team on paper. The Panthers were 5-0 on the road this year, while MSU was just 4-2. The Panthers won the the ACC title, while the Spartans finished in third in the Big Ten East. Pittsburgh is led by QB Kenny Pickett, who had 4,319 passing yards, 42 touchdowns and seven interceptions. The Panthers average 40.2 PPG, while allowing 24.4. Pickett is gone for the draft, but I don't expect much of a drop off here with Nick Patti, who completed 85.7 percent of his passes for 140 yards. The Spartans are led by Payton Thorne, who had 2,886 passing yards, 24 touchdowns and nine interceptions. MSU averages 31 PPG, while allowing 26.6. MSU will be without star RB Kenneth Walker III though. Both teams were great in stopping the run, but the Panthers finished with 51 sacks this season, which was second in the nation. Look for Pittsburgh to grind out a win here. 8* BOWL PLAY on Pittsburgh. |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Oregon v. Oklahoma -6.5 | 32-47 | Win | 100 | 12 h 28 m | Show | |
You won’t know the players (and coaches) without a program in this one. Both teams are off disappointing ends to their years, losing head coaches to other institutions, and key players to the NFL draft, not to mention demoralizing losses. Oregon may also be affected by covid. The Ducks looked very poor against Utah (twice), and will have a long way to come back to make this game competitive. The Ducks run game and QB. Brown’s effectiveness took a real hit in their last games. Losing their best defensive player is troubling. The Ducks’ offense is very young. It will be tough to adjust to the changes. The Sooners have lost key defensive pieces as well. Young QB Caleb Williams had a tough time of late but spent a lot of time on his back; he was pressured mercilessly in his last two games. The Ducks do not pressure the QB particularly well, and will be without their best pass rusher. Look for Williams to bounce back and step it out on the National stage. The Sooners have the benefit of a very experienced “guest” head coach, which may be of some motivation. I am on the Sooners to win and cover. Don’t delay on this one! |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Lakers +5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 99-104 | Win | 100 | 11 h 12 m | Show |
Lakers/Grizzlies The Grizzlies are a big public play here, as the Lakers finally broke their five-game slide with a win at Houston last night. This would typically be a great place to go against LA in the second game of a back-to-back, but there's simply no way that LeBron James can relax considering their current record. LA also plays with revenge here after a 108-95 home defeat to the Grizz back on December 9th. Memphis comes in off B2B BIG wins, pulling away for a 127-102 victory over Sacramento, before then holding on for a 114-113 victory at Phoenix. Can anyone say letdown spot? Yes, the Lakers are without AD, but I expect The King and Russell Westbrook to build off last night's win and at the very least, take this one right down to the final moments. Grab the points. 10* COACHES CORNER Lakers. |
|||||||
12-29-21 | Memphis v. Tulane UNDER 143 | Top | 84-85 | Loss | -108 | 11 h 56 m | Show |
Memphis/Tulane Memphis is 6-4, but it's 0-2 on the road. Tulane is 3-6 overall, including 2-2 at home. When these teams played last year, Memphis pulled away for a 61-46 win and the total stayed well "under" the posted number of 130. I expect a similar final combined score this season as well. The Green Wave average 72.1 PPG, while Memphis averages 77.7. However, each is underrated on the defensive end of the floor as well. Each also comes in rested after having a few games postponed due to COVID. Look for this conference matchup to be a competitive one, but also a lower-scoring defensive affair. 10* TOTAL PLAYBOOK on the UNDER Memphis/Tulane. |
|||||||
12-28-21 | West Virginia +5 v. Minnesota | 6-18 | Loss | -110 | 39 h 55 m | Show | |
WVU/Minnesota This one is going to be close. I mean, I expect this one to be decided by whichever team has its hands on the ball last. THAT close! WVU is gunning for its third straight win. It most recently beat Kansas by a score of 34-28 as 15.5-point favorites. The Gophers finished 8-4, while WVU was 6-6. Minnesota beat Wisconsin 23-13 as 7-point dogs in their finale. Minnesota averages 26.5 PPG, while WVU averages 23.3. The Gophers have the upper-hand defensively, conceding 18.3, while the Mountaineers allow 26.5. I like Jarret Doege to test this Minnesota secondary and to at the very least, have his team competitive until the final moments. 8* BOWL play ON WVU. |
|||||||
12-28-21 | Yale +13 v. St. Mary's | Top | 60-87 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 33 m | Show |
Yale/Saint Mary's Outright win? I'm not calling for that. But I think the hungry underdog visiting side can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch with the ample spread that it's been afforded tonight. This is Saint Mary's final non-conference matchup of the year. It has a big New Year's day game against San Francisco. I say the Gaels get caught looking past their lowly non-conference opponent today. The Bulldogs are 6-7 after a 69-60 loss to Monmouth. Overall Yale averages 72.8 PPG, while conceding 69.8. The Gaels are 11-3 and they're off a 75-58 win over Missouri State. Overall they average 67.5 PPG, while allowing 58. I think Yale is catching Saint Mary's at a great time here. The Bulldogs are putting up over 70 PPG on average and I think they'll be much more competitive than what this line is suggesting. 10* COACHES CORNER on Yale. |
|||||||
12-27-21 | Dolphins -2.5 v. Saints | Top | 20-3 | Win | 100 | 37 h 41 m | Show |
Even after their shutout against the Bucanneers, there is still the Saints' 9 point offense to consider, and that was with their quarterback and some other key pieces who will be missing this week. Now the Saints are down to their 3rd or 4th string QB. A Saints win would make a great Disney feature, but lets face it; "this ain't no movie", as the song goes. The Saints defense has dominant last week, and has been their strong suit all season. The Dolphins allowed 24 points to the Jets, but this was not a result for the Dolphins. In their previous 5 games they allowed an average of around 12 points per game, while reeling off 5 staight wins. Tagovailoa has improved over the course of the season, and has been accurate and well protected of late. The Dolphins have shown dramatic improvement in offense. Here are a pair of stats to compare: Dolphins have scored 28 points on average in their last three games compared to 18 for the Saints. The Dolphins have an 81 scoring % in the red zone over the last two weeks, compared to the Saints’ 28% rate. It appears to have been a doomed season for the Saints. They are depleted once again, and we saw where that got them earlier in the year. Take the Dolphins to win and cover. |
- Early Lines
- High Limits
- NEW VIP Rewards
- VIP Program
- Mobile Betting
- Crypto
- VIP Program
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting!
- Crypto
- Live & Mobile Betting
- 48 Hour Payouts
- 35% Crypto Bonus
- Live Betting
- Mobile Friendly
Guaranteed Winners or your money back and Free Picks in the NFL football, NBA basketball, MLB baseball, NCAA college football and basketball, Nascar Racing, Arena Football nhl hockey leagues and more.
We are part of the internets Premier Sports Handicappers League with full documentation of all members on this sports betting news and info portal. Free Membership, Join Today and start Winning!
For any resources you could need like sports handicapping odds, handicapping stats, schedules, or handicappers free picks and tips please click on any of the links on the right hand side of this page.