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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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05-06-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -135 | 19 h 37 m | Show |
The Oilers will score their share of goals, and they still could win this series. It won’t be easy without an elite goalie considering how some of the defense plays, and while Skinner hasn't played badly, he is no game-changer. Like all the successful teams this year ,Vegas was tenacious on the forecheck in Game One. Broissoit has played better than expected but the Knights face an elite offense at 5 on 5, and one of the very best power plays ever. Add Draisatl, who is lights out in the playoffs, and the potential more than in any other series is for a bunch of goals from both sides . Take the over again in game two. |
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05-06-23 | Knicks +4 v. Heat | Top | 86-105 | Loss | -107 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
I just can’t trust the Heat as favorites, especially with all the injuries. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo are of course out for the season while, more importantly, Jimmy Butler remains questionable due to an ankle. Even at full strength, Miami is terrible as a home favorite. They are 13-23-2 ATS this season as chalk in South Beach, not to mention 20-37-2 ATS as favorites of any kind. If Butler can’t go, that’s two of the Heat’s three 20+ point scorers out of the lineup. I just don’t know where else the production would come from. They only scored 105 without Butler in Game 2. The Knicks lost Game 1, but they didn’t have Julius Randle, their top scorer. He, Jalen Brunson and RJ Barrett combine to average 68.7 points per game and they are all now healthy. Big edge in rebounding for the Knicks as well in the first two games (+25). This team is 26-18 SU/28-15-1 ATS on the road. 10* |
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05-05-23 | A's v. Royals -143 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -143 | 19 h 4 m | Show |
It is a battle of the also-rans as the A's meet the Royals at home. The Royals have stepped it up in the bats department, hitting lefties especially well (.294 BA L10). A's bats are not thriving, nor is the bullpen. Friday's starters have both had some success but both are wild! Keller in spite of equal parts K's and walks, still has an ERA of 3.56, and is off a fine start. A's lefty Muller (6.28 ERA) does have a couple of solid starts, including his last one, mixed in with some very poor ones. The Royals bullpen has been at least fair lately. Not so the A's. The A's are just 2-8, and have been struggling vs right handers (.190 BA L10). Look for KC to flaunt their recently found offense again, and win Friday's game at home. |
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05-05-23 | Devils v. Hurricanes OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 120 | 10 h 45 m | Show |
The Devils were embarrassed by the more experienced Hurricanes. Let's hope that this will kick-start them for Game two. Schmid was pulled in Game one after three quick goals, leaving Game two's starter a question mark. The Devils had an even worse result in the first game of the Rangers series and did bounce back. While Carolina is an elite defensive team, Andersen faced just eighteen shots. I don;t believe that the high flyers we saw in the latter part of the Rangers series will be held to just a single goal and under twenty shots twice in a row. New Jersey has rebounded well after previous losses all season long and are 13-6 after a loss of two goals or more. Schmid has now had two poor outings. Is it possible that his cinderella run has ended? There are enough questions around the Devils goal tending to make the total, a low 5.5, very tempting. Go with the over today. |
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05-05-23 | White Sox v. Reds -104 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -104 | 8 h 39 m | Show |
Reds starter Hunter Greene has three straight quality starts under his belt, allowing just one run in fourteen innings. He is learning to pitch this year and fulfilling his enormous potential. White Sox starter Lance Lynn was better in his last start, but the season has been a real struggle for the most part. He is getting K's but has been a victim of the long ball. The White Sox have been especially poor on the road at 4-12, struggling on offense, and barely ahead of the last place A's in bullpen ERA (7.00 ERA L10). The Reds have shown improvement lately, winning six of their last ten games. They are three games above .500 at home and are getting solid relief pitching. I'm wagering on Greene and the Reds today, winning at home. |
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05-04-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Stars OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 112 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
Game one of the series featured more goals than expected. Five goals against the Stars and Oettinger is a rare occurrence, but the Kraken accomplished it with tenacious forechecking and their usual balanced fifth-ranked attack. The Kraken's ability to play tough without taking penalties eliminated the Stars' very potent power play in game one. Neither goal-tender looked sharp, but the less than stellar play by Grubauer is more concerning. Oettinger is far more likely to bounce back. |
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05-04-23 | Lakers v. Warriors UNDER 227.5 | Top | 100-127 | Win | 100 | 10 h 37 m | Show |
While Game 1 was on an Over trajectory most of the way, it wasn’t until Dennis Schroeder hit a couple of free throws in the closing seconds that the bet officially cashed. Golden State is typically a lot better defensively at home than they are on the road. In fact, the difference in the number of points per game allowed is basically 10 (9.8). The Lakers, even shooting 55% on 2PA, scored 117 in Game 1. I don’t see them scoring as many tonight. The Under is 10-5-1 in the Warriors’ previous 16 home games. Only one Lakers’ game this entire postseason has seen more than 229 total points scored. That was Game 1 of the Memphis series. Consider that two other games went to overtime and there were still only 228 and 210 total points scored. Two of the three first round games in Memphis saw LA fail to score 100 points. Defensively, the Lakers were one of the league’s more efficient teams after the trade deadline. Their size is a problem for the Warriors, who shot 53 threes in Game 1 and still scored only 112 points. 10* |
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05-04-23 | Brewers -142 v. Rockies | Top | 6-9 | Loss | -142 | 4 h 59 m | Show |
The Brewers have lost two straight to the Rockies and have scored just 3 runs in 3 games. Let's hope that the perpetually under-powered Brew Crew can respond in the rarefied air of Colorado today and get back on track. They'll start veteran lefty Wade Miley today, who has pitched for length and consistency, with five straight quality starts and an ERA of 1.87. He has limited the long ball, a definite advantage in Denver. |
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05-04-23 | Orioles -158 v. Royals | Top | 13-10 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
Off a loss on Wednesday, the Orioles need a win to keep their series winning streak alive. The Royals can celebrate a rare home victory. They have been worse than terrible in home games this year. The Orioles will send out young left-hander Grayson Rodriguez. After a pair of poor outings, Rodriguez has now thrown the opposite; a pair of five inning shutouts. He had 9 K's last time out, most of them on a devastating change up. The Royals starter Lyles has not lived up to expectations so far, struggling in a number of his starts. His last was his worst, giving up 7 runs over 4 innings. The long ball has been an issue; 7 of them in his last three starts. |
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05-03-23 | Oilers v. Golden Knights OVER 6.5 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 22 m | Show |
The Oilers' top rated offense and power play were a little much for the Golden Knights in the regular season. Edmonton was 4-0 in Vegas and the over was 3-0-1. They are a very good road team this year. They do have their weak points, in goal tending and defense. Skinner was the worst net-minder in the first round, and a healthy Vegas side will have their chances on goal. Vegas got solid work from Broissoit in the Jets series, but the Oilers are a huge step up in speed and skill, and Broissoit has never been regarded as an elite talent. It took Edmonton a series last year to really get flying. We could see a very wide open style with the resulting high totals, starting in Game 1. Take the Oilers and Knights to go over. |
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05-03-23 | Devils +107 v. Hurricanes | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
The Devils looked shaky in their first two playoff games, but once Schmid started in net, they roared back, winning 4 o f 5 games. NJ held the star-studded Rangers offense to just two goals in those four wins. The young net-minder bounced back after a poor outing in Game six, earning his second shutout of the series. The Devils' top 10 defense should be able to hang in there against a very fine Hurricanes D. Carolina does not have a a net-minder to match Shesterkin, the Devils' last opponent. |
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05-03-23 | Guardians -130 v. Yankees | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -130 | 18 h 52 m | Show |
While Bieber hasn't been lights out as expected this season, he has been very steady. He limited the Yankees to just 2 runs in 7 innings earlier in April. Yankees' starter Schmidt has yet to deliver consistently, allowing 5 runs on 10 hits in his last appearance. The Yankees beat the Guardians on Tuesday but are a miserable 3-7, and barely over .500 at home. Injuries are killing them, including Judge, Stanton and 8, count'em, pitchers. It is very surprising to see two supposed contenders in the lower third of the league in Runs/9. The Yankees are batting just .216 vs righties and face a very good one in Bieber. Take Cleveland, with better pitching on Wednesday, to battle back and win on the road. 10* |
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05-02-23 | Lakers v. Warriors -4.5 | Top | 117-112 | Loss | -109 | 13 h 52 m | Show |
Golden State is only 48 hours removed from winning a Game 7 on the road while the Lakers have had two more days rest after finishing off Memphis with an emphatic 40-point win. But the Warriors are 21-4 straight up in Game 1’s under Steve Kerr including 19-2 at home (did lose Gm 1 at Sacramento in Rd 1) while LeBron James is just 4-14 SU in his career in road Game 1’s. So I’m going to go ahead and lay the points in this one. Golden State is simply a different team at home - where they are 35-9 SU and 29-15 ATS this year. Defensively is where we see the most improvement home vs. road with the Warriors. They allow just 111.8 points per game at home compared to 121.8 pn the road. In two of the three games at Memphis in the first round, the Lakers failed to score 100 points. This is a problem facing a Warriors team that scores an average of 119.2 points at home. Since the start of the 2020-21 season, the Warriors are 66-37 ATS at home when the total is 220 or higher. 8* |
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05-02-23 | Orioles -156 v. Royals | Top | 11-7 | Win | 100 | 8 h 13 m | Show |
I don’t see any reason why the Orioles don’t roll in tonight’s series opener against the Royals. They are simply the better team and have the edge on the mound - both in terms of the starting pitching matchup and the bullpen. Baltimore comes into Tuesday with a 19-9 overall record. Across baseball, only Tampa Bay and Pittsburgh have a better win percentage. Going back to 2021, the O’s are 8-0 as road favorites of -125 to -175. Five of those wins have come this season. Since the start of last season, the Orioles have been the most profitable team to bet on. On the flip side, you’ve got Kansas City, a team that is just 1-12 at home this year including 0-7 as a dog of +125 to +175. Wells is going for Baltimore. Over his last three starts, he has a 2.50 ERA and 0.833 WHIP and the team is 3-0. Yarbrough had a decent first start for KC, but this team’s bullpen is horrendous (5.26 ERA and 1.42 WHIP). The Orioles are top five in bullpen ERA and WHIP. 10* |
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05-02-23 | Heat v. Knicks -6.5 | Top | 105-111 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 28 m | Show |
The Knicks really “gave” Game 1 away in my view. They were leading by double digits after the first quarter and then up 55-50 going into halftime. But ice cold shooting from three-point land doomed them. They finished the game a woeful 7 of 34 (20.6%) from long range. Let’s also not forget they missed 8 of 20 free throw attempts. So I’ll lay the points again in Game 2 … Miami was already without Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo. Now Jimmy Butler is dealing with an ankle injury and that is obviously a major problem. Butler is clearly the Heat’s best player and carried them again with 25 points and 11 rebounds in Game 1. If Butler were to miss this game, I’d say the Heat have zero chance of winning. Plus, NY could get Julius Randle back. Even if Randle doesn’t return, I expect Jalen Brunson to have a bounce back effort after he went 0 for 7 from three in Game 1. Miami is the ONLY playoff team that ended the regular season with a negative net efficiency rating. They also have a losing road record. After overperforming tremendously in the first round, at least at the offensive end, this is a team due for some serious regression - whether Butler can go or not. (Reports are that Butler’s ankle has swollen to the size of a baseball). 10* |
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05-01-23 | Suns +4.5 v. Nuggets | Top | 87-97 | Loss | -108 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
Phoenix fell victim to some hot shooting from Denver, specifically from Jamal Murray, in Game 1 and that is why they came up short, 125-107. The good news for the Suns is that their two superstars - Kevin Durant and Devin Booker - both played well in Game 1. That duo combined for 56 points. Now they just need their teammates to “step it up.” The Nuggets were 16 of 37 from three and had 17 more FG attempts than the Suns in Game 1. Murray was 6 of 10 himself from three on his way to 34 points. I don’t see him matching that production in Game 2. Despite being the 4-seed, Phoenix is the betting favorite in this series and to win the Western Conference. I think they’re a great value as an underdog tonight. The Suns only attempted five threes in the 1H Saturday night, but then started launching in the 2H. They only made seven threes for the game, a number they should easily exceed tonight and thus I like them to cover the spread. 10* |
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05-01-23 | Rangers v. Devils OVER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 41 m | Show |
Devils goal-tending issues returned as the Rangers finally broke through against Schmid in Game six. Who the Devils start in net today is the big question. At the other end, Shesterkin has been consistently good for the Rangers with a fine .939 save % in this series. While it didn't hold in this series, NJ has bee a force at home this season. The speed of the Devils has given the Rangers fits and we have yet to see a goal from Hughes. The Devils have been tough to beat at home this season and have also a very fine record in bouncing back from a loss. Having solved both Schmid and Vanacek, the Rangers will be ready for whoever is in net. In spite of these two teams' reputation for defense, I expect offense to be the color of the day. Wager on the Devils and Rangers to go over. |
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05-01-23 | Braves -115 v. Mets | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
The Braves are now 11-2 on the road. The Mets are just 5-5. L10. With 12 names on the injury list, the Mets' pitching staff appears to be held together with tape and string at the moment. Megill has been one of their steadiest starters, but his starts have been going in the wrong direction. He allowed 4 runs in 4 innings in his last start. Charlie Morton (LH) is aging well this year, finishing April with a 2.76 ERA over 30 innings. He has been especially fine in his last two appearances. The bullpens got the day off on Friday, Saturday, and now Sunday, so both will be well rested. NY, at 1-5 L6, hasn't been hitting well lately. In their last three losses they have managed a total of 1 run. With this being the second game in a double header, the short-staffed Mets’ pen could be quite stretched in the late innings. They have been particularly poor vs left-handers. The Braves batting order is formidable. Count me in on the side of the Braves on Sunday. 10*
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05-01-23 | Braves -1.5 v. Mets | Top | 9-8 | Loss | -120 | 2 h 14 m | Show |
It is Strider vs Reyes in Game one of the Braves/Mets double header today. Strider has been arguably the best pitcher at this point in the season. Reyes, just back from Triple A, has been sharp in relief but isn't stretched out as a starter. Game one could be something of a bullpen day, which is problematic given the Mets' injury-riddled pitching staff. |
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04-30-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Avalanche UNDER 6 | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 0 m | Show |
There are some compelling reasons to consider a Kraken win tonight. Seattle is a very good road team and are 4-1 vs the Avs in Colorado. There are even more reasons to look at the total. The under has figured in five of six games in this series and in all of the Av's home games. Nine of ten recent meetings have all gone under. Seattle and Grubauer have defended better than anyone might have expected. The Av's have just a single player in the top twenty playoff scoring leaders and the Kraken have none. Seattle could still be missing McCann today, a big part of their scoring. I am not confident on picking a winner in game seven, but I do like the total very much. Jump on the under, especially if under six is available. |
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04-30-23 | Heat v. Knicks -4.5 | Top | 108-101 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 30 m | Show |
I like the Knicks here in Game 1 of their second round series against the Heat. Miami clearly overachieved in Round 1 vs. Milwaukee. Giannis Antetokounmpo missed a couple games vs. the Bucks, but more notably the Heat averaged 124 points/game in the series, a double digit increase over what they averaged in the regular season. I expect some offensive regression from the visitors on Sunday. New York just held Cleveland to an average of 94.2 points/game in the first round series. That’s a tremendous defensive effort. The Knicks have covered 24 of their last 35 games overall. The Heat are still only 19-25 SU and 18-26 ATS on the road this season. Just don’t think this spread is large enough. Miami comes in short-handed as both Herro and Oladipo have been lost for the season. The Knicks are at full strength. 10* |
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04-30-23 | Cubs -150 v. Marlins | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 40 m | Show |
This is a favorable line for a Cubs/Marlins match-up. To begin with, Lefty Justin Steele has pitched as well as anyone in the league to date. 4 wins, a WHIP of 0.89, 25 innings pitched and just 4 runs given up. He'll face Hoeing, fresh off a short poor first of the season appearance for a Marlins team starving for starters. The Cubs have lost 2 straight against the Marlins and will be out to break up a sweep. They have much the better offense to date, ranking in the top ten compared to the Marlins' bottom three in runs scored. The Marlins have had recent success vs left-handers, but the Cubs are tough on right handed pitching and could feast on Hoeing. Call it a draw between the pens, but Steele will likely need much less relief support. The Cubs have been a solid road team to date. It will be bounce back day in Miami, with Chicago winning on the road. |
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04-29-23 | Oilers v. Kings OVER 6.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 3 m | Show |
Skinner has a save % of .884 in the series and Korpisalo has given up 9 goals in 2 games. We have now seen the total go over in the last two games. Neither of these two teams were better than average statistically this season and goal-tending had much to do with that. With the Oilers the top offense and with a devastating PP, high totals seemed inevitable. For me, Korpisalo overachieved in the early series. I am betting that the Oilers get to him or Copley again today. I also can't believe that the Kings can subdue McDavid much longer. I am not counting the Kings out yet, but I am big on a total prediction today. Take this game to go over the total |
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04-29-23 | Suns v. Nuggets UNDER 226.5 | Top | 107-125 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 38 m | Show |
The first thing you need to do when handicapping this series is throw out the four regular season meetings. Denver won the first two, but that was before Kevin Durant arrived in Phoenix. Then the Suns won twice late in the season, but that was with the Nuggets sitting key players both times, including Nikola Jokic. We know both teams have a ton of offensive firepower among their ranks, but they’ll each be coming off a three days' break in between series. That leads me to believe we could see a little rust here, at least early on. No one is going to confuse Minnesota with Phoenix, but the Nuggets did just hold the T’wolves to an average of 105.4 points per game in the first round. For the season, Denver is #3 in the league in points allowed per game at home (109.8). The Under is 6-2 in the last eight games here at the Ball Arena. Where Denver struggles at the defensive end is defending the rim. But Phoenix takes the fewest number of shots at the rim of any playoff team. Both teams also rank bottom 10 in pace, so - with this being the first game of the series - I expect a “feeling out process” and fewer possessions than normal. 10* |
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04-29-23 | Devils +112 v. Rangers | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
I am sure many people are asking "who the bleep is Akira Schmid?" The young net-minder has sparked an equally young Devils' side to a three game win streak, outscoring the Rangers 9-2. The Devils were a solid defensive force this season missing one thing; dynamic goal-tending. It is not even as if Schmid had to work that hard in Game Five. He faced just 23 shots vs 43 for Shesterkin. Four extra Rangers' penalties in the third period is not a good look. 2-1 in OT, 3-1, and now 4-0; there is a definite progression here. The Devils have a high speed effective offense, and it appears the goal-scorers are also starting to find their form and confidence. The Rangers are in big trouble. Take the underdog Devils to win. 10* |
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04-29-23 | Royals v. Twins -1.5 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 38 m | Show |
After a slump in offense, the Twins have put 6 or more runs on the board in their last 4 straight games. Today's starter, Ober, obviously didn't appreciate being sent down after a fine spring, returning to the bigs with a very fine first start, allowing just 1 run in 5+ innings. Royals' righty Keller's last two starts have been short and not so sweet, giving up 7 runs in 8 innings. The Royals don't hit well and the pen is struggling. Not to mention, the Twins are the best offense in the league lately and are feasting on right-handers at the moment. Take the Twins on the Run line at -1.5. 10*! |
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04-28-23 | Stars -101 v. Wild | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 17 m | Show |
The Stars got points form their big guns and a shutout from goalie Oettinger in Game five. That is two straight premium efforts for him after a pair of sub-par performances. Ti is the Wild's net-minder Gustavsson who has underachieved in Games four and five, allowing six goals on fifty shots. Could we see Fleurie back in net? The Wild are a very good home team, but Dallas was exceptional on the road this year, and are driven to get a round one series victory off their back. They've got Hintz as the (not so surprising) play-off points leader, and they have stymied an average Wild offense in two straight games. The Wild are still likely missing their top center Ek. These are two very defensively solid teams, but the Stars' superior offense will rule in Game Six. Take the Stars to win. 10* |
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04-28-23 | Kings v. Warriors UNDER 235 | Top | 118-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 10 m | Show |
After dropping the first two games (in Sacramento) of this best of seven series, the Warriors have stormed back with three straight wins and can now, back home, eliminate the Kings in Game 6. Wednesday’s win made it 28 consecutive playoff series where Golden State won at least one road game, a NBA record. We all know they are a much better team at home - where they are 35-8 SU and 29-14 ATS this season. A big key for the Warriors’ home success is that they allow just 111.7 points/game at home. Compare that to the 122.3 points/game that they allow on the road. That’s a big difference. Sacramento also allows fewer points on the road (116.2) than they do at home (119.1) though the difference is not as significant as Golden State. In three of the last four games, the Kings have shot 29% or worse from three. De’Aaron Fox having a fractured finger doesn’t help matters. He was 9 of 25 from the floor in Game 5 including 3 of 10 from three. The team went 2 for 22 from three after the first quarter. The Under is 24-11 this season in Warriors’ home games when the number is 230 or higher. In the NBA Playoffs, Unders have cashed at better than 58% in Game 6/7 since 2004-05. 10* |
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04-28-23 | Bruins -170 v. Panthers | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -170 | 19 h 5 m | Show |
The Panthers, much to my surprise, beat the Bruins on the road in overtime, earning a chance to tie the series at home. I cannot believe that the Bruins will allow this series to go to a game seven. The Bruins out-shot Florida 47-25, with Bobrovsky saving the Panthers' bacon with a huuge performance. Ullmark had a rare off game, but I expect he will be back in the net in Game Six. While it shouldn't matter in the playoffs, the Panthers have been a .500 home team this year. After the Bruins' loss in game one, they stormed back in the second game, winning relatively easily. I expect a similar reaction from Boston in Friday's match-up. Pasternak is certainly due for some offense. Take Boston to win the game and the series on the road. 10* |
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04-28-23 | Braves -136 v. Mets | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 19 h 7 m | Show |
The Mets are just 1-5, losing their last series vs the Nats. The visiting Braves just swept the Marlins and are 5-0 on the road. The Mets have an shocking number of pitchers, starting and relieving, on the injured list. Peterson is healthy if ineffective, with 3 of his last 4 starts outright poor (7.31 ERA). He'll face another lefty, Atlanta ace Max Fried. His last two appearances have both been shutouts. He has a miniscule ERA of 0.60, allowing zero home runs. |
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04-28-23 | Mariners v. Blue Jays UNDER 9 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
Jays' starter Manoah finally got on track in his last game and Castillo, the Mariners' ace, has been exceptional all season, with an ERA of 1.90 over 23 innings. He has not been getting great run support from the Seattle offense. In fact both of these teams have been underachieving with the bats. The Jays have been hitting well in recent games, but haven't faced a good pitcher since Cole (3-2 result). Seattle is hitting below .200 as a team over the last ten games. With a healthy total available today, I am wagering on the Under. |
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04-27-23 | Jets v. Golden Knights -160 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 4 m | Show |
This is a tough call. Not that I think the Golden Knights won't win. I just don't think the odds are great that they will win by more than a goal. The Jets are now down three centers, a scoring winger, and their best defenseman. That is just plain too beaten up to win against a Vegas side up 3-1 at home. The Jets have had very little success against the Knights anywhere, however there is always the Hellebuyck factor. He could come up bit and limit Vegas scoring, although the Knights have managed four or more goals a game in Games 2 through 4. High odds, but taking the Golden Knights to win is the best option. 10* |
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04-27-23 | Celtics -6.5 v. Hawks | Top | 128-120 | Win | 100 | 11 h 2 m | Show |
Atlanta shocked us all by winning Game 5 in Boston, 119-117 as 13-point underdogs. Over the final nine minutes, the Hawks outscored the Celtics 30-15 with Trae Young putting the exclamation point on things with a three-point bomb to win it with just two seconds remaining. Atlanta made 19 threes in the game, none bigger than Young’s obviously, and making the result all the more shocking is that the Hawks were without Dejounte Murray (suspended). Murray returns tonight as the series returns to Atlanta. But it’s difficult to ignore the fact the Celtics dominated Game 5 for three quarters, outscoring the Hawks 60-38 in the paint and 24-8 in transition. I see Boston ending the series tonight and will lay the points. The Celtics are clearly the better team and have been ahead most of the series. The Hawks are awful defensively (119.3 points/game allowed in this series) and won’t shoot 46% again from three. 10* |
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04-27-23 | Rangers v. Devils UNDER 5.5 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 9 h 6 m | Show |
Both these teams have a penchant for winning on the road and the series has followed that pattern. I think the Devils success in games three and four has more to do with A. a young team finding their playoff footing, and B. putting Schmid in net. The youngster has allowed just two goals in forty-nine shots.. It isn't as if the Devils are ripping up Shesterkin and the Rangers, having scored just just seven goals in four games. These were, after all, two tough top ten defenses in the regular season, and if Jersey gets solid goal-tending again, we could see another low total. I'm wagering on the under again today. 10* |
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04-27-23 | Orioles -145 v. Tigers | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 55 m | Show |
The Tigers' lefty Wentz is not off to a fine start with just one of his four appearances in the "better than acceptable " category. The Orioles got to him for five runs in four innings less than a week ago. As far as the Orioles' starter goes, you never really know how Gibson is going to pitch. Anywhere from outstanding to outstandingly poor is possible. He is however 4-0 to date, and he struck out eleven Tigers in a six inning, one run appearance just a few games ago. The O's are 8-2, sweeping the Tigers in their home series. The Tigers are 2-5, awful on offense and just poor in runs-against. Baltimore is hitting well, fourth in the league at the moment and very good vs lefties lately. The Tigers are hitting just .161 of late vs right handers. While Detroit has been getting excellent relief pitching, one of the few teams with a better pen is the Orioles (0.86 ERA L/5). Take the Orioles to win outright. |
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04-26-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219.5 | Top | 128-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 6 m | Show |
The Miami Heat have drastically overperformed in this first round playoff series, especially at the offensive end of the floor. They’ve averaged 123 points through the first four games and you can’t necessarily blame that all on Milwaukee being without Giannis Antetokounmpo as he returned for Game 4 and the Heat scored 119, led by a sensational performance from Jimmy Butler, who had 56 points by himself. This is only the fourth time since 1984 that an 8-seed holds a 3-1 series lead over a 1-seed. Something else to keep in mind - the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the NBA during the regular season at 109.5 points/game. Furthermore, the Heat were also #2 in points allowed (109.8 per game). What has happened in this series is truly head-scratching to say the least. So I will try the Under yet again. On the road, it’s more likely that Miami’s shooting will regress (than at home). Remember that both Herro and Oladipo are out. 10* |
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04-26-23 | Padres v. Cubs +100 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 53 m | Show |
The Padres may have the lineup, but it is the Cubs making all the noise so far. Decent pitching, solid offense, and while the pen has been a bit shaky lately, it has been better than the Padres' (7.79 ERA). Lefty Smyly has been lights-out in his last three starts, including a 7+ 1 hit shutout in his last start. On the other hand , Padres' starter Wacha's last two starts have been anything but quality, allowing 21 hits and 12 runs in just 8+ innings. The Padres are 0-4 vs left-handers and they'll face a tough one today. It is hard to wager against the Padres' potential, but it is the right move for Wednesday's game. Take the Cubs to win. |
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04-26-23 | Panthers v. Bruins -1.5 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 21 m | Show |
The Bruins got to Bobrovsky for five goals and ran Lyons out in the previous game. I'm not sure it will make any difference who is in net; Florida just doesn't have the defense to keep the Bruins in check. Boston is an unstoppable force at this point and will have Bergeron back for game five, making them even tougher to play against. I would be very surprised if the Panthers won another road game. Ullmark looked terrific, stopping 41 of 43 shots, and trying to take on Tkachuk as well. I think the Panthers have taken their best shot and have come up short. Take the Bruins on the puck line at -1 1/2. 10*! |
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04-26-23 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -170 | Top | 0-8 | Win | 100 | 12 h 46 m | Show |
The White Sox, now 0-5, have managed just six runs in their last four games. They are hitting just .119 vs left handers in their last five innings. They'll face a lefty who has appeared to re-find his form after a poor season last year. Three of four of Kikuchi's starts have been of the quality variety so far, allowing just three runs in fourteen innings, with a very good strikeout to walk ratio. He will face Kopech, who has struggled in three of four starts. Eight home runs and fourteen walks in twenty innings won't cut it. The Jays got plenty of production from the tail end of the order on Tuesday so it is time for the big bats to step out in this game. Perhaps Kikuchi's poor play is holding back this line. Take the Jays to win. 10* |
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04-25-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -120 | 22 h 59 m | Show |
Korpisalo !has faced roughly forty shots a game from the #1 offense in the league. He has been a lot better than most people expected so one off game is not surprising. 3 of 4 games in this series have gone to overtime so the Oilers as such a favorite in Game Five is a bit surprising. The Oilers goal-tending situation is hardly clear. They will have to decide between Skinner, who was pulled in the first period of Game Four, or Campbell who has barely played this month. This has been an evenly matched series with the Kings largely keeping the Oilers offense in check. There is every likelihood that LA can keep Game Five close again. A Kings win is not out of the question. Take the Kings on the puck line at +1 1/2. 10* |
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04-25-23 | Hawks v. Celtics UNDER 229.5 | Top | 119-117 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 31 m | Show |
This series heads back to Boston with the Celtics up 3-1 and looking to close things out. Both games in Atlanta went Over, but the two here in Beantown stayed Under with the big difference being that the Hawks just couldn’t score nearly as much on the road. Dejounte Murray is suspended for Game 5 due to making contact with an official. The Hawks will miss him as he’s averaging over 25 points/game in this series. Games 1 and 2 saw the Hawks score just 99 and 106 points respectively and Trae Young wasn’t much help, going 3 of 13 from three. Credit the Hawks for shooting a lot better the last two games. But before that, they’d shot 33.3% or worse from three in seven straight games against the Celtics. The Under has hit four of the last five times Atlanta has visited Boston. Also, the Under has been a very profitable wager in Hawks’ playoffs games through the years, especially in the first round. They are 41-18-1 to the Under in first round playoff games. Boston is an elite defensive team. They posted the second best defensive rating in the league during the regular season. 10* |
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04-25-23 | Red Sox v. Orioles -152 | Top | 8-6 | Loss | -152 | 10 h 52 m | Show |
Baltimore was the most profitable team to bet on last season (+27.9 units) and they continue to produce for their backers (3rd most profitable in 2023). The Orioles have now won seven in a row following last night’s 5-4 triumph over the division rival Red Sox. On the season, the O’s are 15-7 overall. So why not ride the hot hand Tuesday? The Orioles will start Kyle Bradish, who has not allowed a run in two starts (though that’s a bit misleading as the one lasted just 1 ⅔ innings). Still though, his last start was quite encouraging as Bradish went six innings and gave up just five hits. (Granted, against Washington). But having won seven straight and 11 of 13 overall, Baltimore is too good to ignore right now. They rallied from a 4-0 deficit last night. Can’t see them falling into that kind of hole again tonight. The Orioles’ hitters showed tremendous patience and discipline last night as they didn’t strike out a single time. I like their chances here against Corey Kluber, whose best days are behind him. Kluber has an 8.50 ERA and 1.50 WHIP after allowing seven runs in his last start. Kluber has allowed at least one HR in each of his four starts and he gave up two when he faced Baltimore on Opening Day. That resulted in a 10-9 loss for the Red Sox as Kluber allowed five runs in 3 ⅓ innings. The Red Sox are 0-4 with Kluber on the mound this season. 10* |
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04-24-23 | Avalanche -143 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -143 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The Colorado big guns solved Grubauer, leaving him with five goals against and an .845 save % in Game Three. Not that Georgiev was that much better, but we knew the Kraken would press on offense. The Av's are a a great road team and the Kraken struggle to defend, especially at home. Goat-tending was always going to be the issue for Seattle, but Grubauer surprised with two very strong appearances. It may be status quo now. I don't think that the Kraken, regardless of who is in net, can stand up to an Av's team firing on all cylinders. Look for Colorado to win on the road again. |
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04-24-23 | Avalanche v. Seattle Kraken OVER 6 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 10 m | Show |
The Avalanche got to Grubauer in a big way, which is not really a surprise. Goal tending was always a question mark for the Kraken. Seattle responded with four goals in game 3, again not really surprising, as they possess one of the better offenses in the league. The Av's last 6 away games have all gone over, and Colorado is a tough opponent on the road. Seattle has not been at their best at home this year. We've reached situation critical in the series. Seattle will be all in, and that means offense. Colorado is tough to beat when MacKinnon et al get rolling. Look for another high total, and jump on the over today |
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04-24-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers UNDER 221 | Top | 111-117 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
After a high-scoring Game 1 (128-112 Lakers’ win), the last two games of this series have both gone Under the total. Memphis won Game 2 at home without Ja Morant, 103-93. But then, despite Morant returning, the Lakers exploded out of the gate (led 35-9 after 1Q) and won 111-101 in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. Morant got things going late in Game 3, scoring 24 points in the 4Q to finish with 45 for the game. But his teammates gave him next to nothing, combining to score just 56 points on 32.8% collective shooting. Dillon Brooks was ejected for a low-blow on LeBron James. Memphis will definitely shoot better tonight in Game 4. Meanwhile, the Lakers are probably due to shoot better themselves, at least from three-point range (where they’ve gone 14 of 54 the last two games). Keep in mind that Game 3 only stayed Under by nine points despite the Grizzlies scoring only 9 in the first quarter. The Over is 7-3 the last 10 times the Grizzlies have been off an ATS loss. The Over is 7-1 in the Lakers’ last eight games after a SU win. 8* |
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04-24-23 | Golden Knights -105 v. Jets | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
The Jets just lost their top defenseman, Morrissey, a huge hit at this point in the series. Vegas is probably as healthy as they have been all year. Eichel appears to enjoy his first taste of play off hockey. He and the Knights have solved the Hellebuyck problem. Just keep firing shots at him. This should have been an easier win for the Knights. The Jets had just 11 shots in the first two period. Credit to the Jets to find a way back from down three. It must have been demoralizing to finally lose in multiple overtimes. I don't think Vegas will make that same mistake again.The Golden Knights are the better team and very tough to beat on the road. I believe they will steal another road game on Monday. Knights to win outright. |
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04-24-23 | Bucks v. Heat UNDER 217 | Top | 114-119 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
Based on closing lines, every game in this series has gone Over the total. That’s primarily thanks to Miami being much better than expected offensively. The Heat have not only scored more than 120 points in all three games, but they are shooting 55% overall for the series and 50% from three. Something to keep in mind is that the Heat were the lowest scoring team in the league during the regular season, averaging just 109.5 points/game on 46.2% overall shooting and 34.8% from three. They were also 29th in adjusted pace, meaning they played very slow. Giannis Antetokounmpo being out for the Bucks has dominated the headlines for this series, but the injury bug now seems to have bit Miami. Tyler Herro and Victor Oladipo have suffered season-ending injuries while Jimmy Butler (averaging 30 points/game in this series) is questionable and Bam Adebayo is not at 100 percent. So the ridiculous shooting we’ve seen so far from Miami in this series should definitely tail off. But the Heat were also one of the top defensive teams this year, allowing the second fewest points/game in the league (109.8). I’m on the Under, no matter if Giannis and/or Butler plays or not. We’re simply due for a lower-scoring game. There were only 101 total points scored in the second half Saturday. 10* |
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04-24-23 | White Sox v. Blue Jays -160 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 19 h 42 m | Show |
The Jays bats have yet to come alive, but they've faced the Rays, Astros and Yankees in succession, winning two of the three series. The White Sox have some of the worst pitching in the league at the moment. Even Lance Lynn is struggling. He gets plenty of strikeouts, but a ton of HR and walks as well. The Jays' starter Bassitt is still trying to work down his ERA after a disastrous first start. His last three starts have all been good; the very last was a six inning shut out. The Jays' bullpen ERA looks alarming, but a few very poor innings has skewed that number. The Sox' relievers really are poor. It doesn't help that they have 4 RPs on the injury list. Add to the pitching woes, The Sox have also been hitting very poorly of late. The Jays have fared well agaisnt three top sides. I expect some of those big bags to start to make a statement. Ill take the Jays to win on Monday. |
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04-23-23 | Nuggets v. Wolves +4 | Top | 108-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 55 m | Show |
It’s do or die in Game 4 for the Timberwolves, who are facing elimination at home. Denver has taken the first three games of this best of seven series, 109-80, 122-113 and 120-111. The Nuggets are shooting 52.1% for the series after going 57.1% in Game 3, which included 13 of 32 from three. Minnesota has outscored Denver in just one of the 12 quarters in this series. But I expect a fired up effort by the home team in Game 4 with the season on the line. Denver isn’t likely to shoot as well as it did in the last game. It’s absolutely worth noting that the Nuggets have only prevailed by single digits each of the last two games despite shooting over 55% from the field. Denver isn’t a great road team either. For the season, they have a losing record away from home, getting outscored by almost three points per game. Minnesota is 9-2 ATS this season following three straight losses. They are 8-3 straight up in those games as well. 10* |
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04-23-23 | Mets -107 v. Giants | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 3 m | Show |
The 8-2 Mets, off a rare loss will start Megill against the Giants today. Megill has been solid against tough competition, now 3-1 with an ERA of 3.00. He will get good support from the NY bullpen, performing well in spite of missing Diaz. The Mets are 10-6 on the road and scorching right-handers to the tune of .315 in recent games. They will face another righty in Ross Stripling, who has not been the pitcher he was last year (7.30 ERA). He has been used mainly in relief to date so don’t look for a long outing from him today. The Giants’ relievers have been unable to get the job done so far this season. SF is just 3-6 at home, 4-8 vs right-handers, and unable to string together multiple wins. Take the Mets to bounce back and win on the road. |
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04-23-23 | Stars v. Wild -109 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
You have to believe that Gustavsson will be back in net for the Wild. He was sharp, but not overworked in Game 3 and sensational in Game !. The Wild were able to push the Stars around, putting four past Oettinger. His save % is just .860 in the last two games. Both teams are missing a top offensive player as Ek appeared to re-injury himself. The Stars haven't had much success when playing in Minnesota, just 2-5 in recent match-ups. Minnesota is a very good home team, playing a tough brand of play-off hockey at the moment, and if Gustavsson is in net, have topnotch net-minding. Take the Wild to win at home again. |
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04-23-23 | Bruins -148 v. Panthers | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 10 m | Show |
The Bruins were all business in Game Three, running up a 4-0 lead, and then surviving the Panthers' 19 shot 3rd period. The Bruins broke through on Alex Lyon, bouncing him for Bobrovsky. Today's Florida goalie will be a game time decision. Ullmark looked very solid, weathering the third period assault by the Panthers. The Bruins could be down another center today with Krejci questionable, but Florida could be missing Ekblad on defense, which would be a more significant loss. |
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04-23-23 | Tigers +1.5 v. Orioles | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
The Rodriguezs face off on Sunday. Eduardo, is the veteran left-hander for the Tigers, off to a fine start. His last start: 8 innings pitched, 0 runs, 10 strikeouts, 0 walks. Grayson is the Orioles' promising young right-hander, off to a bit of a rough start. The Tigers have some upside to date; not much offense, but a solid bullpen at the moment. They've kept themselves in a lot of ballgames. The Orioles have won 4 straight in an easy part of their schedule. They hit well, but are softer against left-handers. I like the pitching match-up for Detroit on Sunday. A win wouldn't surprise me, but they should be able to at least keep this one close. Take the Tigers on the run line at +1 1/2. |
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04-23-23 | Cavs v. Knicks OVER 206.5 | Top | 93-102 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 42 m | Show |
Every game in this series has stayed Under the total and as a result of that, the current O/U line for Game 4 is basically 10 points lower than the closing O/U line for Game 1. Now, not only has every game stayed Under, but the Cavs and Knicks have yet to even combine for 200 total points! In Game 3, Cleveland scored just 79 points. That was the fewest points scored by any team, in any game this NBA season. The lack of scoring has created solid value on the Over here, in my opinion. Cleveland won’t shoot 38.7% overall again this afternoon nor will they miss 26 of 33 three-point attempts. For the series, the Cavs are averaging just 94.3 points on 43.7% shooting. This is well below their season averages of 111.6 points/game on 48.6% shooting. It’s a similar story with New York, who is averaging 96.7 points on 42% shooting in this series. They average 115.3 points on 46.8% shooting for the season. I just can’t see the cold shooting from both teams continuing. Take the Over in Game 4. 10* |
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04-22-23 | Avalanche -142 v. Seattle Kraken | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 4 m | Show |
The Avalanche have been a great road team all season, while the Kraken are just a surprising three games over .500 at home. While all bets should be off in the playoffs, this is a very strong trend. As good as Grubauer has been lately, that hasn't been the norm this season. He is also consistently worse on home ice. Georgiev is steadier, at home or away. The Av's have the star power, the experience and the ability to break out. The Kraken are tough offensively but have been only average on defense this year. I think that the lack of defense and sub-par net-minding will catch up with them tonight. Take the Av's to quiet the first-time playoff crowd in Seattle and steal this one on the road. |
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04-22-23 | Grizzlies v. Lakers -4 | Top | 101-111 | Win | 100 | 12 h 41 m | Show |
Ja Morant remains questionable for Game 3, but regardless if the Memphis’ star plays or not, I’m rolling with the Lakers. LA took Game 1 128-112, thanks to four different players scoring 20 or more points. Predictably, Austin Reaves and Rui Hachimura cooled off in Game 2 and the Grizzlies, at home, were able to win without Ja, 103-93 as slight underdogs. But now the Grizz are on the road where they’ve gone just 14-26-2 ATS this season and they may be without their best player yet again. Outside of LeBron James and Hachimura, the rest of the Lakers shot just 24.2% in Game 2. That number will go up by a lot here in Game 3. Memphis is 0-5 ATS the last five games off a SU win and 1-7-1 ATS their last 9 games after an ATS win. 10* |
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04-22-23 | Devils v. Rangers -136 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -136 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
The Devils, a very good away team this season, are looking to bounce back on the road on Saturday, but they have taken a kicking at both ends of the ice in the first two games. The Rangers' defense is definitely on top of their game, and they are getting timely offense from Kreider, Fox, and now Patrick Kane. Did I mention Tarasenko? Vanacek struggled in both of the first two games, while Shesterkin has given up just a single goal in each game. The usually offensively-charged Devils were held to 22 shots in Game Two, with just 7 coming in the third period. |
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04-22-23 | White Sox v. Rays -1.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 4 h 29 m | Show |
Two potential Cy young winners face off when The Sox' Cease facing Rays' lefty McClanahan. One caveat here. Cease has issued twelve walks in his last three starts, and that won't wash with the Rays' potent bats. It likely won't be the starters that decide this game. Rays are 7-3 and have won McClanahan's last four starts with ease. They are the league's tops in both runs-for and runs-against. The 3-7 White Sox are only average in offense and very poor in runs-against. That overworked bullpen has struggled all year. The Sox are hitting just .115 against left-handers over the last ten games, while the Rays have a team average of over .300 against right-handers in the same time period. Take the Rays on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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04-22-23 | Dodgers v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 9-4 | Loss | -143 | 15 h 40 m | Show |
The Cubs, the best hitting team in the league over the last week, crushed the Dodgers (10-11), roughing up their ace on Friday. The Ddogers will face the Cubs' Wesneski on Saturday. Don't let his ERA scare you; he started poorly, but his last appearance was no fluke. This guy has high upside. May starts for the Dodgers. He began the season well but was roughed up in his last appearance, giving up 5 runs in 5+ innings. It is very rare to see a Dodgers' bullpen as poor as this one has been of late, approaching an ERA of 7.00. The Cubs' relievers are standing proud at 2.38 over the last week. |
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04-21-23 | Cavs v. Knicks -1 | Top | 79-99 | Win | 100 | 11 h 27 m | Show |
Not like this is some big revelation, but the Cavaliers have a very young roster with little playoff experience. This will be the first road playoff game for most and I see the team struggling tonight at Madison Square Garden in Game 3 against the Knicks. Cleveland simply isn’t the same team away that they were at home. On the road this season, they are 17-21 straight up. Also, they are just 4-14 SU and 6-11 ATS in games where they are priced as an underdog. Give the Cavs credit for a good season, but they benefited from a fortunate 7-0 SU record in overtime games and really dominated the lesser teams on the schedule (30-5 SU vs. sub-.500 teams). Against teams that have a winning record, the Cavs are just 22-27 SU this year. The fact that the Knicks were able to escape Cleveland with a 1-1 split is actually encouraging when you consider they shot below 40% in the two games combined, including 15 of 58 from three. Back home, I expect far better offensive numbers tonight. They are a perfect 5-0 ATS this season following a game in which they scored 100 points or less. They scored 90 in Game 2. The Knicks are still 4-2 SU vs. Cleveland this year and I think they are really being undervalued in this spot. Look for a strong start by the home team tonight as they average more than 60 points per game in the 1H at home. That strong start should carry them to a Game 3 victory. 10* |
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04-21-23 | A's v. Rangers -1.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -100 | 20 h 18 m | Show |
The A's are as bad as everyone expected. They've allowed double figures in runs/against in four of ten games, winning just one in ten. Lefty Sears starts for the A's. Most of Sears' runs have come as a result of HR, five of them in three games. Otherwise he has given innings and consistency. It is what happens after Sears leaves that is concerning. Oakland's bullpen has an ERA of 8.49/L10 as opposed to the Rangers' 3.18. The Rangers have scored 37 runs in their last four games. They swept their last series and took two of three from the Astros. They are now second in Runs/9 in the MLB to date. John Gray starts for Texas on Friday. He has had three solid starts, pitching into the sixth on two of them, and allowing just five runs in fourteen innings. The A's haven't put up much in the way of offense, just eight runs in total in their last five games. This is a great situation for the Rangers to stretch it out again. Take Texas to win on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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04-21-23 | Bruins -154 v. Panthers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 26 m | Show |
I am betting the Bruins will be all business today after arguably their worst loss of the year. They were masterful on the road this season, and very good in revenging a loss. I am not sure I would want to be in the Panthers' skates today. Expect Boston at their most pugnacious in tonight's match. Panthers' likely goalie, Alex Lyon, bounced back with a better game two, but he doesn't have the track record and has played a ton of hockey in April. It was an uncharacteristically poor game from Ullmark and the league's best defense on Wednesday. Take Boston, even without Bergeron, to bounce back and win. |
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04-21-23 | Hurricanes v. Islanders -115 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
The Hurricanes have a stranglehold on the series to date, but are down another forward with Teravainen out. The Islanders are healthier and a MUCH better team at home this season. This is game critical for the Isles, and likely their best opportunity for a win; lose this one and there is no recovery. As one might expect, both goalies are statistically better when playing in their home rink. Look for better games from Barzal and Horvat, and for Sorokin (at home today) to out-duel Raata, as the desperate Islanders win at home. |
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04-21-23 | Celtics v. Hawks UNDER 228.5 | Top | 122-130 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 17 m | Show |
Boston easily won Games 1 and 2 at home and I really don’t see Atlanta having much of a path for success in this series, even with them now at home for the next two games. Perhaps the Hawks’ shooting will start to improve after they went a dismal 5 of 29 from three in Game 1 and 42.6% overall in Game 2. Their defense isn’t very good, but each of the first two games did stay Under the total and that’s the way I see Game 3 going as well. The Celtics are an elite team defensively and finished the regular season third in efficiency. In four of the five meetings this season, Boston has held Atlanta under 30% shooting from three. The one exception was Game 2 when the Hawks finished at 33.3% (16 of 48). Trae Young has really struggled with his shot in the first two games. He’s 14 of 40 overall and 3 of 13 on three-point attempts. Going back quite some time, the Under is now 41-16-2 in Hawks’ first round playoff games. Tonight should be no different. 8* |
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04-21-23 | Reds +126 v. Pirates | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 7 m | Show |
The Pirates put up a mountain of runs in Colorado in their last series. They came back to earth on Thursday, still winning, but scoring just four runs. The Pirates have been a surprise team this season, hitting very well. The Reds have struggled, but usually win when Ashcraft is pitching. He is 2-0, with an ERA of 1.42. Other than too many walks, he has been very strong to date. Nothing wrong with Keller's season either. While not as overpowering as his opponent, he has been steady, pitching for good length. You can't blame the bullpen for all the runs the Reds have given up recently. They've been very good, with a 2.70 ERA last five games. They have a step on the Pirates pen over the same period, who have been just average. The Pirates are favored, but i am not convinced that their success will last. It has been a few days since they faced a tough pitcher and the line for Friday is over-valued in their favor. Take the Reds to bounce back; the dog winning on the road. |
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04-20-23 | Jets v. Golden Knights OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
I thought the Golden Knights would make more of a game of it, but the Jets shut them down, allowing just 17 shots. Hellebuyck, who can be a game changer, wasn't even worked. However the Jets are not always consistent, so I am not convinced of a similar result in Game two. Will it be Broissoit in net again? He was very good down the stretch, but allowed 4 goals with an .867 save % in Game one. I think we will see a better game from the Golden Knights, but the Jets have been putting up some high numbers of goals lately and scored with relative ease on Monday night. The best option in this match-up is the total. With a very low number available on Thursday, look for this game to go over. |
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04-20-23 | Kings v. Warriors -5.5 | Top | 97-114 | Win | 100 | 13 h 2 m | Show |
The Warriors are down 0-2 in a series for the first time under Steve Kerr and won’t have Draymond Green (suspended) for Game 3. But the good news for Warriors’ fans is that home teams down 0-2 in a series are 50-26 SU in Game 3. I wouldn’t be concerned about laying the points as the SU winner has also covered the spread in every playoff game this season and 44 straight times going back to last season. Plus Golden State is a much different team at home than on the road (where they are a woeful 12-30 ATS). They are 33-8 SU and 28-13 ATS at the Chase Center. Over the course of the first two games, the Warriors outshot the Kings - both overall and from three-point land. I worry about this young Kings’ team in its first playoff road game. Also, even after dropping Game 2, the Warriors are still 22-14 ATS off a playoff loss. 10* |
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04-20-23 | Mets -130 v. Giants | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 22 h 31 m | Show |
The Mets are 6-1, hitting better lately and getting solid pitching, both starting and relief. The Giants are the reverse, losing 5 of 6. They were swept by the Tigers, and lost the series to the Marlins. Manaea, a left hander, starts for the Giants. He has had one good start in three appearances; the other two were very short, allowing 5 runs in 6+ innings. Senga will start for the Mets. He is 2-0 with a 3.38 ERA over three starts. He struggled in his last appearance but was tough in his first two. Control is an issue; he has allowed 10 walks to date, but also has 21 strikeouts. He is still very much a work in progress. The Giants' bullpen has not been much of a safety net with a collective 5.57 ERA last 10 games. By comparison, the Mets' relievers are sitting at 2.63 over the same period. The Mets bats have been heating up just as the Giants' have cooled off. NY is a better team than the last two teams the Giants have faced and with little success. SF is just 2-4 at home. I smell a road win. Take the Mets to win outright. |
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04-20-23 | 76ers v. Nets OVER 209 | Top | 102-97 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 45 m | Show |
After a ridiculously low-scoring Game 2 (won by the Sixers, 96-84), I like the Over in Game 3 of this best of seven series. Certainly, this is a must-win for the Nets after losing the first two games. But I’m just not confident enough in this team to bet them plus the points. At home though, I am counting on a better effort at the offensive end after they shot 37.5% overall in Game 2. They shot 55% in Game 1. Both teams have been jacking up threes. Philly has hoisted 78 3PA in the two games while Brooklyn isn’t too far behind at 71. Now both were just 31% from long-range in Game 2. You’ve got to expect improvement tonight and with that kind of three-point shooting frequency, that should mean points. This is a really low number; I believe it’s the lowest for any playoff game thus far. The 76ers are 12-3 to the Over after allowing 100 points or less the previous game. Game 2 was the Nets’ second lowest shooting percentage of the season and they scored just 35 points after halftime. You have to figure we’ll see better offensive numbers at home. Philadelphia is third in offensive efficiency, so I’m not worried about them either. 10* |
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04-20-23 | Rangers +120 v. Devils | Top | 5-1 | Win | 120 | 9 h 58 m | Show |
The depth and experience in the Rangers' lineup showed vs the Devils in Game one. With a fine game from Fox and Krieder, the result was one-sided. It doesn't hurt to have Shesterkin in net. He was beaten only by a penalty shot. Can the Devils turn things around in Game two? They had solid success vs the Rangers especially at home this year. I does appear that all of the trade deadline additions to the Rangers lineup have finally gelled in time for the playoffs. Devils goaltender Vanacek has a chequered history in the post season. This is still a very young Devils side. I am going with experience and goal tending tonight. Take the underdog Rangers to win. |
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04-19-23 | Kings +1.5 v. Oilers | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -138 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The Kings struck first in their series vs the Oilers, just as they did last year. They shut down McDavid if not Draisaitl, and got solid goal tending from Korpisalo. Oiler's net minder Skinner looked less than sharp. I am not convinced that LA can take two straight at home, but they appear to have the defense and muscle to at least contain Edmonton's potent offense. Goal tending is the Oilers' thorn in the side. We will see if Skinner can bounce back. The Oilers will either have to cut down on penalties or shape up on the PK Take the Kings on the puck line at +1 1/2. |
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04-19-23 | Wild v. Stars UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-7 | Loss | -120 | 11 h 25 m | Show |
I wondered which goal tender would step up in the Wild/Stars series and it appears both will. We could even see Fleurie tonight as Gustavsson did face over 50 shots on Monday. With Ek out and now Pavelski questionable, offense looks even more scarce for Wednesday. These are two very strong defensive teams (third and sixth in goals-allowed), and with play-off hockey being generally tighter, a high total is not to be expected. Take today's game to go under the total. |
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04-19-23 | Heat v. Bucks UNDER 219 | Top | 122-138 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 31 m | Show |
Miami lit Milwaukee up in Game 1, shooting 59.5% from the floor overall and making 15 of 25 threes (60%). I can’t see that happening again tonight as you have to remember the Heat were the NBA’s lowest scoring team during the regular season. Plus, Tyler Herro is now done for the season due to a broken right hand. Giannis Antetokounmpo is the big injury concern for the series, however, as Milwaukee has to handicapped dramatically differently without their superstar. He is listed as doubtful for tonight. Defensively, the Bucks aren’t as good without Antetokounmpo but they will also struggle offensively against Miami, who is #2 in points allowed this year. The Heat’s slow pace is also key. On average, their games have been the lowest scoring in the league this season. Whether or not Giannis plays, I like Game 2 to stay Under. It’s mostly because of Miami’s certain offensive regression but Milwaukee is also 5-2 Under off a double digit loss at home. 10* |
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04-19-23 | Twins -120 v. Red Sox | Top | 10-4 | Win | 100 | 20 h 30 m | Show |
The Twins lost to the Red Sox in the 10th on Tuesday, but a win could be in the cards for Wednesday. Minnesota's starting rotation has been terrific to date, and Wednesday's starter Joe Ryan has been a big part of their success. He has given up just 9 hits over 19 innings with a very tiny .63 WHIP. His mound opponent Kluber's starts have been on the short side, and he was hit hard by both the Rays and Orioles. The Red Sox haven't been getting length or success from their starters. Both pens have been solid, but the Twins' bullpen has the edge and has been much more lightly used. The Sox have been getting solid offense, but struggle somewhat vs right handers. They'll face a fine one in this game. The Twins aren't exactly ripping the ball on offense, but they have the lowest runs-against in the league. I'll take pitching over hitting in this match up. Twins to win. |
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04-19-23 | Rangers +106 v. Royals | Top | 12-3 | Win | 106 | 3 h 11 m | Show |
The Rangers are 10-6 to date, winning three in a row. The 2-8 Royals have struggled at home and vs lefties (.184 BA). KC ranks worst in runs/9 and close to it in runs allowed. Texas lefty Perez has three straight quality starts under his belt, limiting runs to just five in fifteen innings pitched. The Royals' Singer started the season very well, but each successive start has been worse. His last one was a debacle. The Rangers are off to a great start offensively and defensively. There is no comparison at the moment between their fine bullpen and KC's (6.45 ERA). This line is based on Singer bouncing back, but after two very poor games, I am not sure that this is likely. There is still KC's offense and relief pitching to consider. Take Texas today, a bit of a gift from the odds makers. |
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04-18-23 | Cubs -170 v. A's | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 22 h 53 m | Show |
The Cubs took their last series from the Dodgers, which hasn't happened often. They are hitting the ball well, especially vs lefties, and the bullpen has been better than average. They are up early against the A's in game one, and will send out Stroman on Tuesday. He has a pair of wins already and three very good starts. He allowed 2 runs over six innings in his last start, but that is it for the season with 18 innings under his belt. |
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04-18-23 | Jets v. Golden Knights -140 | Top | 5-1 | Loss | -140 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
Vegas finished the season strongly and they have Mark Stone back after a very long injury. The Jets have Hellebuyck, but otherwise don't always seem to pull in the same direction. They were very fortunate to land in the playoffs, and are just .500 on the road this season. Broissoit, an ex-Jet, will start for the Knights. He has been very sharp in April, with a .946 save%. Yes, Hellebuyck can be scary good at times, but Vegas is as healthy as they have been all year, and have a solid edge on offense. Take the home side, the Golden Knights, to win at home. |
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04-18-23 | Lightning v. Maple Leafs -152 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -152 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
The Leafs are back in a familiar spot; round one against the Lightning. I like their chances much better this year, especially in their home games. Toronto finished very strongly, winning four straight and beating Tampa, Florida and the Rangers. The teams are equally matched on offense, but the Leafs are much better on defense, and they are tougher to play against this year. Tampa is a bit of a mystery this season. They were outright poor on the road, finishing 4 games under .500. Even Vasilevskiy hasn't been as dominant this season. He had some great games down the stretch, but was roughed up by the Leafs and the Rangers in his last two games. Samsonov will return to the net for Toronto. He has been better than steady down the stretch when he played, with a +.950 Sv % in his last three games. With all of their previous experience, perhaps the Lightning can find another gear for the playoffs, but I am taking the Leafs until I see otherwise. Toronto to win Game one at home. |
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04-18-23 | Hawks v. Celtics OVER 230.5 | Top | 106-119 | Loss | -110 | 6 h 2 m | Show |
If there’s one first round series in the NBA Playoffs that appears to be a total mismatch, it would be this one as Boston were runaway 112-99 winners in Game 1 and are once again double digit favorites for Game 2. Game 1 easily stayed Under the number as Atlanta shot just 38.8% from the field including a horrific 5 of 29 from three. I expect the Hawks will shoot better tonight. The Celtics scored 74 points in the first half of Game 1 and pretty much coasted from there. We all know about the historic offensive efficiency this team put forth in the early part of the season. They finished #2 in the league in offensive efficiency, only trailing a Sacramento team that did establish a new record in points per possession. Atlanta generally plays no defense as is evident by the fact they allow 117.9 points/game. Boston is 7-2 to the Over following a SU win by 10 or more points. 10* |
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04-17-23 | Kings v. Oilers -180 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -180 | 22 h 24 m | Show |
The Oilers appear to have peaked at just the right time, winning 9 straight games. What is perhaps most impressive in this stretch is that the Oilers have only allowed 6 goals in their last 6 games. This from a team that was very casual on defense for much of the year. Skinner has been nothing short of sensational in net lately with a .966 save % in recent games. Included in this streak are a pair of wins against the Kings, during which he allowed just 1 goal. At 5-5 L10, LA looked sharper a bit earlier in the season. They are a large step behind on offense especially if Fiala is still out. They will need superior goal tending to withstand the Oilers onslaught, and I am not convinced that either Copley or Korpisalo is up to the task. Kings will have a better chance at home, but I expect that game one will go the way of the Oilers. It is higher odds than I would usually play on, but we will need to watch a game at least to see how this series will go. |
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04-17-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 240 | Top | 106-114 | Win | 100 | 11 h 51 m | Show |
The Warriors and Kings combined 249 points in Game 1, going Over the the closing number of 237.5. I expect a lower-scoring Game 2. There were a lot of free throws in Game 1, 59 combined attempts to be exact (32 for Sacramento, 27 for Golden State). Don’t think we’ll see that many again tonight. The Warriors have won at least one road game in a NBA-record 27 consecutive series. It’s not often that we see them trailing in a playoff series. But when they are, the Under has gone 16-6. The four regular season meetings between these teams saw the Under go 2-1-1. Only one the four saw more than 237 total points scored. With the world expecting an Over (and the number has been bet up a few points), I’m rolling with a “contrarian” Under. 10* |
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04-17-23 | Wild v. Stars -135 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -135 | 21 h 15 m | Show |
The Wild did not finish the season strongly, losing 5 of 7 games. They have Kaprizov back finally but have lost their top center Eriksson Ek, and have 3 other centers compromised at the moment. The Stars, who looked shaky earlier in the season, are now 8-2, exceptionally stingy on defense, and scoring with regularity lately. The Stars are healthier, have a very big step up on the Wild on offense, and are a good home team. It is hard to argue with any of the goalies in this series, and a crap shoot at this point to see which one will stand out. Dallas is definitely the stronger club, now very well-coached, with the shadow of an early exit last year to motivate them. Take Dallas to win game one. |
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04-17-23 | Giants v. Marlins -120 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
The Giants aren't in a good place at the moment with just three wins in their last ten games. Logan Webb starts today. He was solid in his last appearance after two sub-par ones. Plenty of Ks so far but a lot of Ws as well. He'll face Jesus Luzardo a fine lefty, who can also rack up the Ks, 20 so far, and has more control. He allowed three runs in his last appearance after a pair of stellar outings. The Giants have been struggling in the late innings and the bullpen has been the culprit, with an ERA of over 6.00 in the last week. The Marlins, on the other hand, have been getting great relief pitching in the same time period. |
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04-16-23 | Clippers v. Suns -7.5 | Top | 115-110 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 50 m | Show |
I will role with Phoenix in Game 1 as this is a completely different team when Kevin Durant plays (8-0 SU, outscoring opponents by 11.6 per 100 possessions) When Durant plays with Devin Booker, the Suns have a +18.4 net rating and average 124.7 points per 100 possessions. They are a deserved favorite to come out of the Western Conference. Meanwhile, the Clippers don’t have Paul George for this series. They do have Kawhi Leonard, but I don’t think that’s enough to stay with the high-powered Suns, at least here in Game 1. In the regular season finale, when the Clippers needed a win to clinch the 5-seed, they could only beat Phoenix by five. And that was with the Suns sitting seven players, four of them being Durant, Booker, Chris Paul and Deandre Ayton. The Clippers have underachieved all year and I don’t see that changing now. 10* |
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04-16-23 | Orioles v. White Sox -140 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -140 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
The White Sox won a game after three straight losses. They'll have their ace on the mound on Sunday and he is 2-0, giving up just a run an outing and lasting at least 5 innings per appearance. Grayson Rodriguez will start for the Orioles. He has high upside, but struggled in his first start, and it may take a few games to settle in. The Orioles have been hitting well, but that may "cease and desist" on Sunday. Both these teams have had their problems in runs allowed, with some shockingly high totals. I like the Sox' chances on Sunday. Cease should at least allow them the opportunity of a lead, and Rodriguez has yet to prove himself. Neither bullpen is especially strong, but so far the Sox relievers haven't let Cease down. Chicago to win. |
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04-16-23 | Rockies v. Mariners -1.5 | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -140 | 6 h 32 m | Show |
The Mariners rang up the visiting Rockies in their first two games. I like their chances for a three game sweep. Their ace Castillo lost a step last time out, but still only allowed 2 runs over 6 innings after two near perfect earlier outings. Castillo's WHIP is a paltry 0.74 to date. The Rockies start rookie Davis today. He pitched fairly well in the spring but didn't last more than 3 innings. The last two Rockies starters managed just 3+ innings each, so Colorado will be looking for some innings from Davis today. Either that, or tax an indifferent bullpen. The Mariners have a considerable step up on the Rockies in relief pitching. The Mariners' offense has been a bit of a disappointment this season, but has started to perk up in the last week. The Rockies are 26th in OPS on the road. The M's are a large favorite, but won by 7 and 2 runs in the first games of the series. Take the Mariners on the run line at -1 1/2 runs. |
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04-16-23 | Lakers v. Grizzlies -3.5 | Top | 128-112 | Loss | -110 | 5 h 49 m | Show |
The Lakers earned the 7-seed by beating Minnesota in the Play-in Round back on Tuesday. But I felt LeBron and company were a little lucky to escape with a victory in that one. Not only did they need overtime to get the ‘W’ but they trailed by as many as 15 points in that game. The T’wolves scored just 16 points from the start of the fourth quarter through OT. Memphis, at home, is not going to wither like that. The Grizzlies finished the regular season with the best point differential in the Western Conference and are a much better team at home - where they’ve gone 35-6 SU on the year. They have the best point differential at home in the league, outscoring visiting teams by 10.6 per game. The Grizz also have the league’s second best defensive rating. LeBron is a somewhat shocking 3-14 SU on the road in Game 1’s in his career. Jaren Jackson Jr will need to stay out of foul trouble and Ja Morant will need to hit his threes, but I believe the Lakers are overvalued coming into this best of seven series. Lay the points. 10* |
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04-15-23 | Warriors v. Kings UNDER 238.5 | Top | 123-126 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 13 m | Show |
This is a fascinating series as the team with home court advantage (Sacramento) is a decided underdog. Since 1990, no top 3 seed has been this big of a series underdog and it’s not particularly close. Golden State has won a road game in all 24 series under Steve Kerr, but they were terrible away from home in the regular season, giving up an average of 122.5 points/game while going 11-30 SU and 12-28-1 ATS. Sacramento had the most efficient offense in the league during the regular season. But this is a really high total for a playoff game. I don’t expect either team to play as fast as they usually do. The Under is a surprising 6-2-1 in the last 9 meetings between these teams including 3-0-1 here in Sacramento. This number, even after being bet down some, is still higher than any of the four regular season games. 10* |
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04-15-23 | Knicks +5.5 v. Cavs | Top | 101-97 | Win | 100 | 10 h 51 m | Show |
Cleveland is roughly a 2/1 favorite to advance to the second round, but I think the Cavaliers may have more trouble with the Knicks than anticipated. The Cavs’ 51-31 SU record was the franchise’s best in a non-LeBron James season in 30 years. But they really benefited from a 7-0 record in overtime games and their net efficiency is a little misleading due to the fact they typically blew out the bad teams. Against opponents with a .500 or better record, the Cavs have been a losing straight up proposition this season. The Knicks also had a breakout campaign in 2022-23, which includes a 3-1 SU/ATS record vs. Cleveland. Julius Randle is a question mark for Game 1 but so is Cleveland’s Isaac Okoro. Monitor their statuses, but regardless I’m taking NY plus the points for Game 1. While starters are called upon more come playoff time, it should be pointed out the Knicks’ bench really dominated their Cavaliers’ counterparts in the four regular season meetings. The Knicks also enjoyed a big edge in offensive rebounding in those games. 10* |
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04-15-23 | Mets v. A's OVER 9 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
The A's have given up 24 runs in their last three games while scoring 23. Their starter Fujinami, has given up nearly 2 runs an inning to date. The A's sport the league's worst also runs-allowed average to date. Mets' starter Carrasco has struggled in the early season, also allowing more than a run an inning in his first two appearances. The A's bullpen will likely be very little help. On offense, the Mets should have power, they just haven't shown it very often yet. They are breaking out as I write, leading the A's 11-5 in just the fifth inning. I am a believer in a very high score total in Saturday's match-up . Jump on the over, and quickly. After Friday's score this total could rise. |
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04-15-23 | Brewers +114 v. Padres | Top | 3-10 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 50 m | Show |
The Padres are home to the Brew crew on Saturday, after losing the opener. San Diego's vaunted offense has been surprisingly low key to date, now 24th in Runs scored and 27th in Average. Saturday's starter Lugo has been a good news story so far. He hasn't started in several years but has been very sharp, going at least 6 innings and allowing just 2 runs in 2 appearances. After a lost season last year, Peralta has more than fulfilled his earlier promise for the Brewers to date allowing just 1 run over 12 innings in his first two appearances. Milwaukee has one of the best pens in the business at the moment, and has been hitting surprisingly well; 11th in runs scored to date, as well as a very sharp 3rd in Runs allowed. Take the Brewers, a slight underdog, to win outright on Saturday. |
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04-14-23 | Braves v. Royals +1.5 | Top | 10-3 | Loss | -135 | 10 h 36 m | Show |
I like the Royals +1.5 tonight, hosting Atlanta. Now it’s hardly been an inspiring start to the season for Kansas City, who comes in at just 4-9. But they are coming off an impressive 10-1 victory at Texas on Wednesday, their largest margin of victory in any game this season. The 10 runs also marked a season high. Atlanta came into 2023 earmarked as one of the favorites to win the World Series. They’ve gotten off to a 9-4 start and lead the NL East. But I see this as a bit of a tricky spot. You’d have to go all the way back to April 5th to find the last time the Braves won a game by more than one run. All three wins against Cincinnati were of the one-run variety and before that they lost three in a row to San Diego. Brady Singer will start today for KC. I’d say his 4.91 ERA is misleading. In his only home start, Singer allowed just one run and two hits against Toronto. The Braves have never faced him before, not all that surprising given these two teams rarely meet. Still, it’s an edge to the pitcher. April 5th also marks the last time any Braves’ starter earned a victory. Charlie Morton gets the baseball tonight. He has not pitched well with a 1.936 WHIP in two starts. Being a veteran, the Royals will know what to expect from him, even if this is just Morton’s fifth appearance against them. 10* |
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04-13-23 | Tigers v. Blue Jays -1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 14 m | Show |
the Blue Jays bats are due for some big innings and Thursday could be the day. The Tigers blew a fine start by Rodriguez in the late innings on Wednesday. The bullpen is an issue; the Tigers' pen has an ERA of nearly 9.00 in the last week. Both of Thursday's projected starters bombed in their first start and improved in their second. the Jays' Bassitt was much improved. He has been Mr. Dependable in previous seasons, and is a good bet for another solid result. Turnbull was somewhat better in his last appearance, but missed 1 1/2 years to Tommy John surgery, so is still a work in progress. The Jays are pretty formidable when facing a right-hander, batting nearly .300, with equivalent runs-scored. The Tigers' offense has been slim lately with a 2.48 runs/9 average, and very poor defensive stats. Look for the Jays to put up some significant numbers on Thursday. Take Toronto on the run line at -1 1/2. |
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04-13-23 | Hurricanes v. Panthers -120 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -120 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
No one wants to face the Bruins in the first round, so this is still a significant game for the Panthers. They have come down the stretch winning 6 of 7, losing that one game in OT. They're getting great goal-tending from back up Alex Lyon. He has played in 7 straight games, and hasn't given up more than 2 goals in any of them. Andersen is projected to start in goal for the Hurricanes. He has bee up and down in his last 8 starts. The Canes are just 1-3 lately and haven't fared well against the Panthers when playing in Fla. Carolina is the better defensive team, but it is the Panthers who have been keeping goals against down. They haven't given up more than 2 in any of their last 8 games. The Panthers have a very solid edge on offense. I like the Panthers' chances on Thursday. It is a more meaningful game and they are the much hotter team. Take Florida to win outright. 10* |
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04-12-23 | Bulls v. Raptors OVER 214.5 | Top | 109-105 | Loss | -104 | 28 h 9 m | Show |
Since the inception of the play-in format, Unders have gone 9-3 in these games including a perfect 6-0 last year. But this O/U looks far too low. Perhaps oddsmakers are fixated on the fact that all three of the regular season matchups between the Raptors and Bulls stayed Under the total. There were 217, 208 and 202 total points scored in those three games. As a result, we’ve got a far lower total here than any of those previous three matchups. Bulls’ games averaged 224.7 PPG this year. Raptors’ games averaged 224.1 PPG. Going by those averages, there’s clear value here on the Over. I looked through every Chicago result this season and this would be the lowest O/U for any game all season. The only two lower than 219.5 were both against Miami, who is the lowest scoring team in all of the NBA. Toronto has had four games this year with lower totals. Three of them were in October. The last one was two days before Christmas, vs. Cleveland, and that game went Over with 225 total pts scored. 10* |
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04-12-23 | Canadiens v. Islanders -1.5 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 19 m | Show |
There is just one meaningful NHL game today, with the depleted Canadiens facing a teetering NY Islanders side. This is critical mass for the Isles, who inexplicably lost to a struggling Capitals side on Monday. The Habs are 3-7, and have been outscored heavily in those losses. They are a very poor road team and have a shockingly long injury list. Montreal goalie Montembeault allowed seven goals in his last start. Isles' stellar net-minder Sorokin had one of his worst starts ever in the Capitals' game allowing three goal early. Expect him to bounce back today; he was exceptional in his three previous starts. This is a season-defining game for the Islanders and I believe they will respond. They crushed the opposition in their two games previous to the Washington debacle. They are a very good home team with solid defense and have been overachieving on offense in their wins. Take the Islanders on the puck line to day at -1 1/2. |
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04-12-23 | Mariners v. Cubs +102 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 41 m | Show |
The 5-1 Cubs have been playing well especially on offense, where they are 2nd in BA and 7th in OPS over the last week. Wednesday's starter Stroman is 2-0 to start, with a pair of 6 inning starts, giving up 0 runs on just 5 hits. He was also very good in the preseason. Seattle's starter Gilbert has also been steady. He does give up more than his share of hits and lasted just 4 innings in his last appearance. While they scored 9 runs in a losing cause, the M's offense has been generally poor this season. The Cubs are looking for the Seattle sweep, out-hitting the Mariners in game two, and out-pitching them is game one. I like their chances for a win on Wednesday. Take the Cubs to bring out the brooms. |
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04-11-23 | Seattle Kraken v. Golden Knights -145 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 13 m | Show |
The 5-0 Kraken, benefiting from an easy schedule down the stretch, haven't faced a top team in more than a week, since they lost to the Kings. They are in a back to back situation against a tough Knights team and have now confirmed at least a wild card spot. Their goal-tending, a weak spot all season, is in flux tonight. Vegas should take this game seriously. They are in first place in their division, but some mixed play has the Oilers nipping at their heels. They are better-rested and have a fine past record against the Kraken. Broissoit has looked sharp in net lately, so the goalie advantage goes to Vegas. Call this a pre-playoff game for both teams, with the better-rested Golden Knights coming out on top. |
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04-11-23 | Cardinals v. Rockies +1.5 | Top | 9-6 | Loss | -109 | 21 h 12 m | Show |
I can't resist this one. St Louis hasn't earned these odds. Rockies starter Freeman has been as hot as anyone to start the season, with two six inning appearances and zero runs given up. One of those games was at Coors Field. Cards' starter Mikolas has not been good at all so far. He has been hit very hard, giving up a run an inning to date. This doesn't translate well to a start in Colorado. The Rockies are hitting well for average and have won two straight games. Bullpen? let's hope they don't need it too much. The Cardinals are just 1-6 and lost to the Rockies on Monday. They are projected to be a much better team than Colorado, but what you expect isn't always what you get. Take the Rockies on the Run line, at +1 1/2. |
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04-11-23 | Hawks v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 116-105 | Loss | -110 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
The Heat didn’t have a great regular season by any means, but I trust them far more than the defensively inept Hawks this time of year. Miami closed on a 4-1 SU/ATS run to earn home court advantage for this play-in matchup, which will determine the 7-seed in the Eastern Conference. I have to acknowledge the fact the Heat were not a good team to bet on in the regular season, especially when favored. But neither was Atlanta, who comes in at 35-45 ATS overall and 17-24 ATS on the road. The Hawks allow 118.1 points per game, tied for fifth most in the league. Only Detroit, Indiana, Houston and San Antonio allowed more. This is going to be a problem tonight. In three games vs the Heat this year, Atlanta allowed 130, 117 and 113 points. They’ve lost 8 of 9 here in Miami and are only 3-6 ATAS in those games. Expect Jimmy Butler to be the “X-factor” here. He averaged 26.1 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.1 assists in March, plus he always seems to step his game up in the playoffs. As a team, the Heat saw their offensive efficiency jump tremendously down the stretch and they’ve averaged 121.4 points/game since April 1. Lay it here. 10* |
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