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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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10-19-17 | Knicks v. Thunder OVER 215 | Top | 84-105 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: I think the NBA schedule was set before the Knicks traded Carmelo to OKC but is sure seems like a "set up" that the first game of the 2017-18 season for both New York and Oklahoma City is the first game of tonight's TNT doubleheader between the Knicks and Thunder at Chesapeake Energy Arena. The Thunder made arguably the biggest 'splashes' of the off-season by bringing in All-Stars Carmelo Anthony and Paul George to pair with reigning MVP Russell Westbrook. As for the Knicks, they received center Enes Kanter, swingman Doug McDermott and a draft pick in that Anthony deal, finally committed to a youth movement centered around 22-year-old Latvian Kristaps Porzingis, who is ready to lead the team after averaging 18.1 PPG last season in Anthony's shadow. New York has missed teh postseason the last four seasons, averaging about 29 wins per season! New York: "For myself, I wanted him to stay [in New York], and to play with him and learn from him and so on," Porzingis told reporters of Anthony. "But from the other side, I understand that he needed a new challenge in his career and he wants to win a championship one day, so I'm happy for him. He's in an environment where he might be able to do that soon." PG Derrick Rose is also gone from last season's squad and maybe the biggest "addition by subtraction" is that the Knicks no longer have Phil Jackson 'hanging over' the entire operation. 19-year-old Belgian rookie Frank Ntilikina has been impressing coaches and teammates in camp and will be counted on to step in for Rose.. "Usually for a young kid like that, you've got to spend a lot of time explaining plays, explaining NBA sets. You're not able to go to all the little tricks and all those things for a while," New York coach Jeff Hornacek told ESPN.com. "With Frank, you can talk about them already. So that's great." Joining Ntilikina in the backcourt is shooting guard Tim Hardaway Jr, who signed a $71 million deal with the team after averaging 14.5 PPG for the Atlanta Hawks last season. Oklahoma City: Westbrook became the first player since Oscar Robertson to average a triple-double over the course of the season (31.6 points, 10.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists), but the individual success still led to a first-round playoff exit. OKC wasted little time over the summer jumping into the Western Conference arms race and nabbed a pair of stars disgruntled with their former situations in George and Anthony. Now, the biggest question is, how many shots does each player need to stay happy? Westbrook averaged a league-high 24 FG attempts last season while Anthony hoisted 18.8 shots and George put up 18 for the Indiana Pacers. The pick: As the saying goes, "you can't make this up." Carmelo Anthony's first game for his new team will be against his most recent employer, the New York Knicks. Head coach Jeff Hornacek no longer has to worry about Phil Jackson's "triangle" and he let the Knicks run to their heart's content in the preseason. However, that also revealed the team's extreme defensive deficiencies. That style could be 'suicide' here in OKC. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-19-17 | Memphis v. Houston -2.5 | Top | 42-38 | Loss | -118 | 80 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The 5-1 (2-1 in the AAC) Memphis Tigers handed Navy its first loss of the season last Saturday. edging the Midshipmen 30-27. The victory allowed the Tigers to move into the latest AP poll at No. 25, for the first time since 2015. Memphis' lone loss in 2017 has come 40-13 at UCF but I should note that UCF is one of just eight unbeaten FBS teams and is currently ranked 20th in the AP poll. It's an AAC game Thursday night game when the Tigers visit TDECU Stadium and Houston on ESPN. The Cougars will be looking to atone for 45-17 upset loss at struggling Tulsa (2-5). Houston welcomes Memphis with 4-2 overall record (2-1 in the AAC). Memphis: QB Riley Ferguson is completing just 59.3 percent of his passes but has thrown for for 1,814 yards, 19 TDs and just five INTs. The Memphis ground game is averaging 180.2 YPG (55th), led by Henderson (542 yards / 8.1 YPC) and Taylor (307 YR / 5.4 YPC). WR Anthony Miller has 45 catches and nine TDs, although nine different players have at least one TD catch. Memphis is averaging 40.3 PPG (12th) but allowing 33.8 PPG (109th) on 477.5 YPG (116th). Houston: This is Major Applewhite's first season at Houston, taking over for Tom Herman (now at Texas). Applewhite opened the season with Kyle Allen as his starting QB but after a 27-24 at home to Texas Tech, he gave the starting job to Kyle Postma. The Cougars won the first two games Postma started but then came last Saturday's 'ugly' 45-17 loss at Tulsa. Allen has attempted 104 passes (76.9%) for 751 yards with four TDs and four INTs, while Postma has 122 pass attempts (65.6%) for 805 yards with four TDs and five INTs. Houston's ground game is averaging 161.8 YPG (69th), led by Catalon (431 YR / 4.8 YPC) and Birden (227 YR / 5.8 YPC). Houston is averaging just 25.5 PPG (86th), down from 40.4 and 35.8 PPG the last two seasons. However, the defense has been solid, allowing 21.0 PPG (39th), which is in keeping with the team averaging between 20.8 and 23.5 PPG the previous four seasons. The pick: Memphis has won 11 straight regular-season non-Saturday games, including six on the road but the Cougars have won 11 straight conference home games, as well as six of the past seven against Memphis. The Tigers are coming off a huge win over Navy plus beat Houston last season 48-44, snapping a six-game losing streak in the series that dated to 2006. Cougars get their revenge. Make Houston a 10* play. |
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10-19-17 | Devils v. Senators -148 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -148 | 22 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: The New Jersey Devils are off to a 5-1-0 start, coming off having recorded the fewest points in the Eastern Conference last season. Meanwhile, while the 3-1-2 Ottawa Senators have earned at least one point in five of their first six games but they welcome the Devils to the Canadian Tire Centre tonight having yet to win a home game. The Senators are 3-0-0 on the road but fell to 0-1-2 at home on Tuesday, after being shut out 3-0 by Vancouver. New Jersey: “There’s no real reason to harp on the last couple of seasons,” Devils forward Kyle Palmieri, whose shootout goal was the difference in Tuesday's 5-4 win over red-hot Tampa Bay, told reporters. "If you look back at last year, obviously it was a disappointment, but we’ve turned the page. We’re off to a good start and hopefully we can continue to play this good hockey.” Veteran forward Drew Stafford, who was limited to eight goals while splitting last season between Winnipeg and Boston, already has recorded three in as many games and scored twice on Tuesday while playing on a line with rookie Nico Hischier. The No. 1 overall pick in this year's draft, Hischier collected a pair of assists against Tampa Bay but remains in search of his first goal. " Ottawa: Captain Erik Karlsson was sidelined for the first five games after undergoing off-season foot surgery, but returned on Tuesday. However, his season debut was spoiled by teh Canucks winning 3-0. Karlsson, who led Ottawa in scoring last season and was magnificent in the playoffs, was sure not eased back into the lineup slowly, as he led all defensemen in ice time (22 minutes, 25 seconds) on Tuesday. "A little rusty, but overall OK," Karlsson told reporters. "I think we played a well-enough game for me to get back into the groove of things. I still need to fine-tune a few things and it's going to take some time, but overall, I felt pretty decent." He reported no ill effects after the game (good news). The pick: The Devils own the league's top-ranked power play (8-for-26) and buoyed by a productive rookie class, are off to their best start in nine years. The contributions of three rookies are eye-catching. Defenseman Will Butcher leads the team in scoring with nine points, all assists, while two teenagers, winger Jesper Bratt (three goals, three assists) and first overall pick Nico Hischier (four assists), have also made immediate impacts. Head coach John Hynes said goalies Cory Schneider (4-1-0, 2.95 GGA & .917 SP) and Keith Kinkaid (1-0-0, 2.00 GAA & .935 SP) will split the back-to-back games against Ottawa and San Jose, but he didn't say which will tend the pipes at Canadian Tire Centre on Thursday. Meanwhile, Senators head coach Guy Boucher confirmed he will start Craig Anderson (2-1-2, 1.91 GAA & .926 SP) in goal for the sixth time this season against the Devils, and also that rugged defenseman Mark Borowiecki will miss the game with an upper-body issue that developed after he fought in the past three games. Karlsson's got a game under his belt and aren't the Senaytors overdue for a home win? Yes, NJ owns the league's best power-play (see above) but the Senators were the last team to yield a power-play goal and are 15-for-16 on the penalty kill. Strength vs. strength! Make Ottawa an 8* play. |
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10-18-17 | Rockets v. Kings +8 | Top | 105-100 | Win | 100 | 15 h 28 m | Show |
The set-up: Riddle me this. If I told you that the Warriors would shoot 53.8 percent from the floor (including 16 of 30 on threes), while making 19 of 21 FTs, would anyone have though that they'd lose their season-opener at home to the Rockets? Wait, before you answer, let me add that Chris Paul would go 2 of 9 in his Houston debut (scoring four points) and that Harden would make just 10 of 23 from the floor. Now, would anyone have taken Houston on the moneyline? OK, you all are likely well aware that the Warriors blew a 17-point lead last night and by out-scoring Golden State 34-20 in the 4th quarter, Houston upset the defending champs 122-121, when KD's apparent game-winner was disallowed, as the ball left his hand just AFTER the buzzer went off. The Rockets hope not to be still celebrating when they head to Sacramento tonight, to take on the Kings. The Kings were 32-50 last season, while missing the playoffs for the 11th straight season. Houston. The Rockets featured a well-balanced attack last night, as six players scored in double digits, including two reserves with 20 or more points. Backup guard Eric Gordon had 24 points and backup forward P.J. Tucker, signed for his defensive toughness, added 20. "We got some dogs on this team, man," Houston star guard James Harden said during a post-game television interview. "We're versatile, probably the most versatile team since I've been in Houston. We've got a chance." Chris Paul did record 11 assists in his Houston debut but sat out the final 4:47 as he is battling knee soreness. Sacramento: The Kings moved talented but problematic center DeMarcus Cousins at last yea's All Star break and I'm not sure many believe this year's team is ready to break the franchise's current playoff drought. Zach Randolph was brought in and he played under current Kings coach Dave Joerger for three seasons in Memphis. 40-year-old swingman Vince Carter, who also played in Memphis, is expected, along with Randolph, to provide some much-needed leadership to a club that too often lacked it during the Cousins' era. Veteran PG George Hill also was added but he may not be at full strength for the opener after recently suffering a groin injury. As for Randolph, he's questionable after oral surgery. First-round pick PG De'Aaron Fox will get increased time if Hill is hindered, while shooting guard Buddy Hield aims to follow up his solid showing of averaging 15.1 PPG in 25 his games after being the main acquisition in the deal that sent Cousins to New Orleans. The pick: There is a "wide divide' between these two teams but with Houston coming off what had to be a very satisfying win over the Warriors last night in Oakland, the home dog is the way to go. Make Sacramento an 8* play. |
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10-18-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs UNDER 9.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers are one win away from both ending the Chicago Cubs’ reign (at one title in a row) and getting to the World Series for the first time since 1988. The Cubs have scored first in every game of the series, but they haven’t crossed the plate again in any of them. The Cubs have just 15 hits (four for extra-bases, including three HRs) with 32 strikeouts and only four walks. They've scored four runs in three games while batting .160. LA's bullpen has been "unreachable," as the Dodgers’ relievers have not allowed a run in their last 16 2/3 innings and have given up only two hits in this matchup. Chris Taylor and Andre Ethier homered in LA's 6-1 win on Tuesday, giving the club eight HRs in the series and 11 in going 6-0 this postseason. The pitching matchup: Alex Wood (16-3 & 2.72 ERA in the regular season) takes the mound for LA and the Cubs will send Jake Arrieta (0-1 & 0.00 ERA in the postseason). Wood had a "career year," as the Dodgers went 18-7 in all his starts, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$505. However, this marks his first-ever postseason start and it comes after four less-than-stellar relief outings in past postseasons. He had allowed eight runs (four earned) over 5 1/3 innings over his first three postseason appearances before working two scoreless frames out of the bullpen against the Cubs in last year’s NLCS. Wood is 2-2 with a 2.93 ERA in eight career regular-season games (five starts) versus Chicago. Arrieta is 4-3 with a 3.33 ERA in eight postseason starts over these last three seasons, including losing his only start in this postseason in Game 4 of the NLDS 5-0 against Washington, despite allowing only one unearned run and two hits over four innings. Arrieta is 1-3 with a 3.77 ERA in five career regular-season starts against Los Angeles. The pick: History favors the Dodgers in this one, as of the 36 teams in postseason history that have led 3-0 in a best-of-seven series, 29 have completed a sweep. However, the Cubs erased a three-games-to-one deficit in the 2016 World Series against the Indians to capture their first championship since 1908. But this year, they are 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position in the series. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-18-17 | Blackhawks +105 v. Blues | Top | 2-5 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The St. Louis Blues opened the season 4-0-0 but a two-city trip to Florida put a halt to the team's fast start, with losses to the Panthers (5-2) and Lightning (2-1). The Blues are back in St. Louis tonight for a game with the 4-1-1 Blackhawks, before playing three of their next four on the road. Chicago is off to a solid start and this contest is the first of four road games the Blackhawks will play in the team's remaining six games in October. Chicago: The Blackhawks are expected to welcome the return of forward Nick Schmaltz from a four-game absence due to a head injury. Meanwhile, Brandon Saad has welcomed his second stint in Chicago with open arms, following up his season-opening hat trick with five more points - including his team-leading sixth goal in Saturday's 2-1 overtime win over Nashville. He has impressively netted the game-winning tally in all four Chicago victories this season. He's been the team's co-MVP, along with goalie Corey Crawford, who has allowed just one goal in four of his five starts this season, improving his save percentage to a spectacular .960 (he owns a 1.39 GAA). St. Louis: Like Chicago, St. Louis is also set to welcome the return of a key player, as Alex Steen could provide a spark after the team's 'lost' two-game venture to the Sunshine State. "He looked good," St. Louis head coach Mike Yeo said of Steen, who has been sidelined since breaking his hand in the preseason. "He's obviously a big part of our group, a big part of the leadership and then you think about all the intangibles that he brings, special teams, leadership, offensively, defensively, he's a key guy for us, so we're anxious to get him back." Yeo will decide on Steen's availability following Wednesday's morning skate. Vladimir Tarasenko scored his team-leading fourth goal in Saturday's 2-1 loss to the Lightning and joins Jaden Schwartz with points in five of six games this season. Captain Alex Pietrangelo has matched Schwartz with a team-leading eight points (two goals, six assists) in six games this season. The pick: The Blues recorded at least a point in four of six games (3-2-1) last season versus the Blackhawks plus thwarted 15 of 17 short-handed attempts. However, I will back the red-hot Murray (see stats above) over Jake Allen, who comes in 3-2-0 with a 2.96 GAA and .917 SP. Make Chicago a 10* play |
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10-18-17 | Bucks +3.5 v. Celtics | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
full analysis soon |
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10-18-17 | Hornets v. Pistons OVER 203.5 | Top | 90-102 | Loss | -110 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The Eastern Conference has been dominated by the Cavs since LBJ returned but the Celtics had hoped that they had closed the gap significantly by signing FA Gordon Hayward and then trading for Kyrie. However, Hayward could now be lost for the season with a fractured ankle in last night's opener at Cleveland. Toronto and Washington seem to be the "next in line" but after that, it seems wide open. Tonight, in the Pistons' brand-new Little Caesars Arena in downtown Detroit, the Pistons will host the Charlotte Hornets, as both non-postseason teams last spring look to 'join the party' here in the 2017-18 season. Charlotte: The Hornets' major move in the off-season was to bring in former All-NBA center Dwight Howard to man the middle. Howard is expected to anchor a defense-focused front line that also includes forwards Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Marvin Williams. Charlotte's team leader is All-Star PG Kemba Walker, who is coming off a 2016-17 campaign in which he averaged career highs of 23.2 PPG, 44.4 percent shooting from the floor and 39.9 percent shooting from three-point range. Walker will have to get used to a new starting backcourt mate with Nicolas Batum expected to miss six-to-eight weeks with an elbow injury. Jeremy Lamb will get first crack at the job while rookie Malik Monk comes off the bench. “[I’m] just trying to get ready," Lamb told the team's website. "An opportunity has come that I’m ready to take advantage of. Hopefully, Nic has a speedy recovery and we can get him back out there as soon as possible.” Detroit: The Pistons looked like playoff contenders at times in 2016-17 but were done in by injuries to PG Reggie Jackson and some growing pains from star center Andre Drummond. Jackson's season was a dud from the start, as he missed the first 21 games with left knee issues and ended up playing just 52 games and averaging 14.5 PPG on 41.9 percent shooting. He is owed $51.1 million over the next three seasons but did make it through training camp healthy and will not have any restrictions on his playing time. The pick: The Pistons were 37-45 last season and the Hornets, 36-46. However, the Pistons won three of the four meetings, including both played in Detroit. This marks the Pistons' first regular-season game at Little Caesars Arena, as the Pistons had called The Palace of Auburn Hills home since 1988. Look for Detroit to open with a bang at the team's new home. The Pistons scored 112, 115 and 114 points in last year's three wins over the Hornets and this over/under is too low. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-17-17 | Hurricanes v. Oilers -145 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -145 | 13 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: I've noted this before, that the Edmonton Oilers were a 'sexy' pick to win the Western Conference and reach the Stanley Cup finals prior to the season. However, after winning their opener 3-0 at home over the Flames, the Oilers have los three in a row (two at home), while scoring a total of just five goals. 1-3 Edmonton will host the 1-1-1 Carolina Hurricanes tonight, before heading out on a three-game road trip. The Hiurricanes know all about struggling to score as well, as Carolina has been limited to just one goal in back-to-back losses to Columbus (in OT) and Winnipeg, respectively. "I think we just need to be more hungry. We have opportunities," alternat captain JeffSkinner said. "More hunger, more desperation. It's disappointing when that's the reason because that's in your control. We need more hunger and more desperation for sure." Carolina: The offense has been stuck in neutral but off-season acquisition Scott Darling has been "hitting on all cylinders." He's started in goal all three games over Cam Ward, who has been the team's No. 1 netminder for the majority of 12 seasons. Darling has turned away 44 of 48 shots in the last two games. "He gives us a chance every night," head coach Bill Peters of Darling. "... It's a race to three (goals) in the National Hockey League. You've gotta be able to get to three to get a point, if not two points." Peters also told the league's website, "We've got to get to the net. There's too many times where (the goalie is) seeing it. If you're shooting from distance with no traffic, they're going to make the save and there's nobody there for seconds and thirds. That's what that is." Edmonton: The Oilers' injury list is growing. Head coach Todd McLellan confirmed Monday that center Leon Draisaitl would miss his second straight game with an eye injury and concussion-like symptoms. Draisaitl finished eighth in NHL scoring last season with 77 points. Left winger Drake Caggiula, who has missed the Oilers last two games, joins Draisaitl by being placed on injured reserve. Caggiula is out with an undisclosed ailment. Connor McDavid recorded a hat trick in the season-opener and has notched an assist in back-to-back games but Edmonton needs more from him. The Oilers are also just 1-for-12 on the power play through four games. The pick: Sure, the Oilers are off to a slow start but their season is just four games old. Workhorse goaltender Cam Talbot has been gashed for 12 goals on 73 shots in his last three games (all losses) but there is a silver lining. Talbot owns a 4-1-0 mark with two shutouts, a 1.18 goals-against average and .955 save percentage in five career games against Carolina. Make Edmonton an 8* play. |
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10-17-17 | Dodgers v. Cubs -114 | Top | 6-1 | Loss | -114 | 13 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Dodgers were MLB's best team during the regular season (104 wins) and they have been MLB's best postseason team so far, as they have yet to lose in the playoffs, going 5-0. They come to Wrigley Field to take on the defending champion Cubs with a 2-0 lead in the NLCS, meaning the Dodgers are two wins away form the team's first World Series appearance since 1988. The series so far has been a story of LA's pitching dominating Chicago's lineup. Los Angeles’ pitchers have dominated, allowing only three runs through two games, with the bullpen combining for eight scoreless innings, while allowing only a single baserunner but zero hits! “I think up to this point we've done everything we can to put ourselves in a good position, but there is a long way to go,” Dodgers manager Dave Roberts told reporters. “It’s definitely noted how resilient that club is over there. They're going to do everything they can to win a game, and we're going to do the same.” To get back into the series, the Cubs will have to get the big bats in the middle of their lineup going as Chicago is hitting .117 in the series and stars Kris Bryant and Anthony Rizzo are a combined 1-for-14 with six strikeouts.
The pick: Darvish got the win in Game 3 vs. Arizona but let's be serious, he only pitched five innings and didn't remind anyone of Justin Verlander and his Game 2 effort vs. the Yankees in Game 2 of the ALCS. Just a reminder, Darvish's moneyline mark this regular season (Texas and LA combined), was minus-$1302, the third-worst among all 2017 starters. Getting back to Hendricks, prior to his less-than-stellar deciding Game 5 outing against Washington, he hadn't given up more than three ERs in 14 starts since the All Star break. In fact, in half of those starts (seven), he had allowed one or zero ERs. Expect the Cubs' bats to 'wake up' vs. Darvish. Make Chicago a 10* play. |
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10-17-17 | Celtics +3 v. Cavs | Top | 99-102 | Push | 0 | 61 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: The NBA schedule-makers surely have a sense of humor. Kyrie Irving played six seasons with Cleveland with the four-time All-Star guard helping Cleveland reach three NBA Finals, including winning the 2016 title. However, he reportedly tired of playing with LBJ and "requested" (basically forced) a trade this past off-season. Irving ended up in Boston for a package that included PG Isaiah Thomas and the highly under-appreciated Jae Crowder. Boston actually earned the No. 1 seed in the East last season over Cleveland (53 wins to 51) but the Celtics were no match for the Cavs in the conference finals, losing 4-1. Cleveland revamped its roster over the summer as well, adding veteran guards Dwyane Wade (James' BFF), Derrick Rose and Jose Calderon in addition to newcomers Thomas (out due to hip surgery) and Crowder. LBJ has been bothered by a sprained left ankle and his availability may not be determined until close to tip-off in the season opener, as Kyrie makes his much-anticipated "return to Cleveland" as a member of the Celtics. Boston: Irving wasn't the only big off-season acquisition by the Celtics, as they lured All-Star small forward Gordon Hayward away from the Utah Jazz to reunite with Brad Stevens, his former college coach at Butler. All it took was a four-year, $128 million deal. The move to Boston allows Hayward to build off a career-best 2016-17 campaign in which he averaged 21.9 points and 5.4 rebounds per game. Al Horford, second-year swingman Jaylen Brown and rookie forward Jayson Tatum are the other likely starters with Hayward and Irving. Cleveland: LBJ missed four of Cleveland's five preseason games but he did participate in Monday's practice. "You know I never hide stuff from you guys, I really don't know," Cavaliers head coach Tyronn Lue told reporters. "I mean, just depends on how he feels after (Monday), but I really don't know." Thomas is not expected to make his Cleveland debut until around the All-Star break, so veterans like Rose, Wade and J.R. Smith will be counted on to help James and Kevin Love (who now is expected to start at center, with Thompson coming off the bench) on the scoring side. The pick: There is plenty of drama brewing for tonight, as the Cavs are planning a video tribute to Irving, who made the game-winning 3-pointer in Game 7 of the 2016 Finals to hand the organization its first championship. That said, expect plenty of boos directed Irving's way. As for LBJ, he has never missed a season opener in his first 14 years in the league and of course wants to pay here but he has to realize this is just one game and all the Cavs care about is getting back to the Finals, to get another shot at the Warriors. Especially, considering most believe that this will be LBJ's last season in Cleveland. Something tells me that the Celtics will be better-prepared to win this game and note that if LBJ doesn't play, the numbers don't bode well for the Cavs. Cleveland is 4-23 over the past three seasons when James doesn't play, including losses in the last 11. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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10-17-17 | Canucks v. Senators UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 44 m | Show |
The set: The 3-0-2 Ottawa Senators return home to begin a five-game homestand against the 1-2-1 Vancouver Canucks on Tuesday night. The Sens are back home, where they opened the new season by dropping a pair of shootout losses in their first two home games. However, Ottawa just completed the first three-game sweep through Western Canada in franchise history, winning at Vancouver, Calgary and Edmonton. The Senators are certainly riding high but the same can't be said of the Canucks, who have dropped three in a row (all at home), since winning their season-opener 3-2 over Edmonton on Oct. 7 (also at home). Vancouver: The Canucks' slide began against these Senators back on Oct. 10, losing a 3-2 shootout to Ottawa. Now, Vancouver opens a five-game road trip playing at the Canadian Tire Centre. A lack of offense has been the main culprit for the Canucks, who have been limited to two goals each in each of their three losses. The Canucks ranked 29th in offense in 2016-17 and featured the league's second-worst power play, with those struggles carrying over into this season. Vancouver is averaging 2.25 GPG (22nd) and ranks 25th on the power play. "You're not going to win a lot of games if that happens," acknowledged veteran forward Daniel Sedin. "You have to capitalize." Ottawa: Not only are the Senators riding high after completing a 3-0 road trip with 6-0 and 6-1 wins the last two games but as they return home to begin a five-game homestand, head coach Guy Boucher said at Monday's practice that star defenseman Erik Karlsson is "100 percent" ready and "he will play tomorrow." What better way for a team to begin a homestand than to get its best player back on the ice? The pick: The Senators were not only able to survive but also thrive in Karlsson's absence. A big part of the team's success can be attributed to special teams play. After going 0-for-16 on the power play in their first three games, the Senators scored a total of five goals with a man-advantage in Calgary and Edmonton. Ottawa is also a perfect 15-for-15 this season on the penalty kill. That matches up well against struggling Vancouver, which has scored just two goals on 23 power-play chances. A positive for the Canucks has been a penalty-killing unit that has operated at an 87.5 percent efficiency, tied for sixth best in the league. This all points to making the Under a 10* play. |
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10-16-17 | Colts v. Titans -7.5 | Top | 22-36 | Win | 100 | 34 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: Preseason expectations were running high in Tennessee, after the Titans went 9-7 in 2016, losing the AFC South to the Texans on a tie-breaker. The Titans 'laid an egg' in Week 1 in a 26-16 home loss to the Raiders but rebounded with wins at Jacksonville and home to Seattle, to get back on track. However, the Titans were pulverized 57-14 in Week 4 at Houston and followed with a 16-10 loss in Miami last week, while seeing starting QB Marcus Mariota go down with a hamstring injury. The Colts know all to well about an injury to their starting QB, as Andrew Luck has yet to see action in 2017 and does not have an exact timetable to return from his shoulder woes. However, Indy has seen its offense take significant strides as Jacoby Brissett has gotten acclimated under center in place, with the Colts splitting his four games as the team's starting QB (Colts are 2-3, overall). Indianapolis: Brissett threw for a career-high 314 yards and rushed for a TD last week as the Colts collected their second victory against a win-less team with a 26-23 overtime triumph over San Francisco (also beat the now 0-6 Browns at home in Week 2). T.Y. Hilton had seven catches for 177 yards last week. Rookie RB Marlon Mack has given the Colts' running game a boost, with a 22-yard TD plus his 35-yard run set up Adam Vinatieri's game-winning 51-yard FGl in overtime. Veteran Frank Gore moved into seventh place in NFL history with 13,304 yards rushing. Still, the Colts average only 100.0 YPG on the ground (20th) and their 19.4 PPG ranks only 22nd. The defense is a big problem, as the Colts rank last by allowing 31.8 PPG and 30th (of 32 teams) in total D (393.4 YPG), as well as passing yards (294.0 YPG). Tennessee: The Titans may be staring at another game without Marcus Mariota (hamstring) in its lineup. Mariota is hopeful that he can play. Matt Cassel came in after he got hurt last Sunday at Miami and was 21 of 32 for 141 yards (no completion longer than 17 yards) and was sacked six times! Tennessee's bread and butter has been its rushing attack but DeMarco Murray has just 89 yards on the ground in his last two contests, as Miami limited the team to only 69 yards on 20 carries last week. The Titans still rank 7th in rushing on the season, at 124.8 YPG. The defense (not helped by allowing Houtson 57 points in Week 4), is one spot behind the Colts in points allowed, at 28.4 per game (31st). The pick: It's fairly likely that ESPN would not have picked this as a Monday night game if it knew that Matt Cassel and Jacoby Brissett could be the opposing QBs. However, it seems as if Mariota will be able to play and there should be plenty of motivation on the Tennessee side, to get its season headed back in the right direction plus to end what has to be a wildly frustrating 11-game losing streak against the Colts (mostly at the hands of Andrew Luck). Brissett has surely been an excellent pickup (savior?) for Indy but let's not forget his only two wins have come over the Browns and 49ers, who check in a combined 0-12 in 2017. Make Tennessee a 10* play. |
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10-16-17 | Astros +1.5 v. Yankees | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -170 | 13 h 27 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees fell into an 0-2 hole against Cleveland but were able to win the final three games of that ALDS. The Yanks now find themselves in a second straight 0-2 hole here in the ALCS (a seven-game series), this time against the Astros. Houston owns MLB's best offense and the Yanks hit more HRs (241) than any team in MLB, yet each of the first two games resulted in 2-1 Houston wins. "Both sides are really, really emphasizing staying in the game and just continuing to fight because it can shift in a heartbeat," Houston manager A.J. Hinch told reporters. "Just when you feel good about where you're at, it can shift back to momentum the other way. So it's postseason baseball at its best." After rallying against the 102-win Cleveland Indians, the question is can New York do it again up against the 101-win Houston Astros? "I'm going to stick with the same lineup because things can turn really quickly," Yankees manager Joe Girardi told reporters. "There's a lot of guys that struggle in the postseason. That's just what it is. If you just start moving people around trying to play a hot hand, it doesn't necessarily work." The pitching matchup: Charlie Morton (14-7 & 3.62 ERA) gets the call for Houston and CC Sabathia (14-5 & 3.69 ERA) for the Yanks. Morton, in his 10th big-league season, authored a "career year" (see above), as the Astros were 16-9 in all his starts (plus-$408). He started the clinching game of the ALDS at Boston last Monday but did not factor in the decision, leaving after 4 1/3 innings. He surrendered seven hits and walked a pair but limited the damage to two runs in a game Houston went on to win 5-4 (0-0 & 4.15 ERA this postseason. CC Sabathia was15-6 for the Yanks in 2012 but entered 2017 off a four-year run in which he had gone just 32-39. No one saw his 2017 season coming, as he finished the regular season 14-5 (3.69 ERA). The Yankees were 19-8 in his starts, giving him a plus-$1163 moneyline mark which ranked fourth-best among all starters. This marks his third postseason start and he pitched well against the Indians. Although he went only 9 2/3 innings in his two starts, he struck out 14 batters and his Game 5 effort was a big reason the Yankees advanced (0-0 & 3.72 ERA this postseason). He now takes the mound in this "must-win" situation and he is 9-5 with a 4.46 ERA in 21 career postseason appearances (including 20 starts). The pick: After a pair on one-run games, should we expect anything different here in Game 3? The Astros are hitting .190 through two games, after batting .333 in the ALDS against Boston. As for New York, the Yankees enter Game 3 batting .159 with 27 strikeouts, four walks and just 16 total bases. Taking the 1 1/2 runs here could be a HUGE. Make the Astros an 8* play. |
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10-16-17 | Lightning v. Red Wings UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Tampa Bay lightning will travel to Detroit to face the Red Wings in Monday' lone NHL contest. Both teams are off to 4-1-0 starts but the clear standout in this opening stretch has been Tampa Bay's Nikita Kuchero, who has become the sixth player in the last 17 years and first since 2012, to score in each of his team’s first five games of the season (he netted the game-winner Saturday, as Tampa Bay beat St. Louis 3-2). Detroit has made it clear that it is not the same team that missed the playoffs for the first time in 26 seasons in 2016-17, sprinting to a 4-1-0 start. The Red Wings and Lightning aren't accustomed to what befell them last season. As noted, Detroit missed the playoffs for the first time since the 1989-90 season, while Tampa Bay missed the playoffs by one point, after reaching the Stanley Cup final in 2015 and the Eastern Conference final in 2016.
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10-15-17 | Islanders v. Kings OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Kings beat the Sabres 4-2 on Saturday and will continue their four-game homestand on Sunday against the New York Islanders. The Kings scored three third-period goals last night, improving to 3-0-1 on the season and 1-0-1 on the homestand. The Islanders won 3-1 at San Jose on Saturday to even its mark at 1-1-0 on its four-game road trip and sit 2-2-1 on the season. NY Islanders: The Isles will attempt to end this West Coast road trip on a winning note when they face the Kings at Staples Center on Sunday, as they conclude their road swing against a more familiar foe, the New York Rangers at Madison Square Garden on Thursday. New York is in the midst of a challenging schedule with five of its first seven games away from Brooklyn's Barclay Center and are in a stretch of 13 of 15 games against Western Conference opponents. In last night's win, the Islanders went 0-3 on the power play and remain one of just two teams (Anaheim joins them) without a power-play goal this season. Los Angeles: The team's fast start is something different, as this marks the first time since 1995-96 that the Kings have registered points in each of their first four games. Los Angeles has taken advantage of a friendly schedule that keeps them in California until its Oct. 21 matchup at Columbus. The Kings will play the second of eight consecutive games against the Eastern Conference, tonight. LA had struggled on the power play until last night, when the Kings scored three power-play goals (had opened the season starting the season on an 0-for-16 run!). The pick: Both teams are playing the back end of consecutive games and I expect a few "extra" pucks to find their way into the back of the net. Male the Over a 10* play. |
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10-15-17 | Giants v. Broncos UNDER 40 | Top | 23-10 | Win | 100 | 128 h 8 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Giants are playing in prime time for the third time in six weeks, when they welcome the Broncos to MetLife Stadium on NBC's Sunday night football. The Giants, who went 11-5 last season, have opened 0-5 and are practically guaranteed to miss the postseason for the fifth time in six years since the team won the Super Bowl at the end of the 2011 season. The Broncos are off a bye week and check in at 3-1, with all three wins coming at home (2-0-1 ATS). Denver: The Broncos are hardly a dominant team, losing 26-16 at Buffalo in Week 3 and needing a last-second interception to beat Oakland prior to the bye. However, Denver played its beat game of the season here at home in Week 2, dominating the Cowboys 42-17. QB Trevor Siemian is completing 62.7% with seven TDs and four INTs (89.0 QB rating). C.J. Anderson has run for 330 yard, leading a running game averaging 143.0 YPG (3rd). There is nothing wrong with the Broncos' defense, which is allowing a league-low 260.8 YPG, including ranking No. 1 against the run (50.8 YPG). Denver is allowing 18.5 PPG to rank 7th. NY Giants: Eli Manning receives most of the 'heat' but the Giants have virtually no running game, averaging 77.8 YPG (30th). RB Paul Perkins was unable to practice Wednesday, leaving Orleans Darkwa and rookie Wayne Gallman to lead a backfield that has done little. Eli is completing 67.8% but with eight TDs and five INTs (89.1 QB rating). Week 5 was not good to him, as he lost his three top WRs to ankle injuries, including Odell Beckham Jr, possibly for the year. Manning himself was examined for neck issues after the game. The pick: Eli's receiving corps is devastated and he has no running game, as he looks to take on an outstanding Denver defense, coming off a bye week. As for Denver's offense, excluding the team's 42-point outburst against Dallas, Denver is averaging 18.7 PPG. This game has "under, written all over it!" Make the Under an 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Cubs v. Dodgers UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 49 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: Jon Lester (13-8 & 4.33 ERA) takes the ball for Chicago and Rich Hill (12-8 & 3.32 ERA) gets the nod for Los Angeles. The Cubs beat the Dodgers in last yera's NLDS (4-2) and Lester was outstanding in one start and one relief appearance, allowing two runs on three hits over 9 2/3 innings (1.38 ERA). He is the active leader in postseason innings pitched with 143 1/3 and owns a 9-7 record and 2.57 ERA in 24 playoff appearances (20 starts). Lester is 3-3 with a 3.29 ERA in nine starts against the Dodgers (teams are 5-4). Hill was drafted by the Cubs and went 18-17 with a 4.37 ERA over his first four major-league seasons with the club from 2005-08. Hill started Game 2 of the NLDS against Arizona, allowing two runs on three hits over four innings of a no-decision. Hill limited the Cubs to two hits over six scoreless innings of a win in Game 3 of last year’s NLCS and was expected to start Game 7, if necessary, but the Cubs closed out the Dodgers in Game 6. The pick: Hill was ready and waiting to start a winner-take-all game in the NLCS against the Chicago Cubs last year, but Clayton Kershaw was upended in Game 6 and the Cubs advanced to the World Series. He gets a chance here to make up for that missed opportunity and help LA take a 2-0 lead in this year's NLDS. However, let's note that Hill owns a 4.50 ERA in five career postseason starts. After going all-in to close out the Nats in the NLDS and then having to face Clayton Kershaw in Game 1 of the NLCS just one day later, the Cubs can hardly be surprised that they are down 0-1. However, going down 0-2, will make a comeback pretty hard against the team which won a MLB-best 104 games in 2017. I expect Hill to pitch well again (like last year) against his original team and as for Lester, the Cubs should have confidence in a pitcher who owns a 2.57 ERA in 24 playoff appearances (20 starts) . Make the Under a 10* play |
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10-15-17 | Bucs -2 v. Cardinals | Top | 33-38 | Loss | -113 | 124 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: The University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale, Arizona is the site of this Week 6 game between the 2-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the 2-3 Arizona Cardinals. The Bucs played a Week 5 home game vs. the Pats on Thursday night but lost 19-14, partly because PK Nick Folk missed three FGs. The Cardinals are hoping to climb back to .500, after a 34-7 loss last Sunday at Philadelphia. Tampa Bay: First things first. Folk's first season with Tampa Bay is over as he was placed on injured reserve with a "minor injury" classification, meaning the team must release him once he becomes healthy. Replacing Folk will be Patrick Murray, who appeared in two games for Cleveland last season after converting 20-of-24 field-goal attempts for the Buccaneers in 2014 (Heeee's back!). The Bucs need more consistency from QB Winston. He's got four TDs and zero INTs with a 103.6 QB rating in Tampa Bay's two wins but has three TDs and three INTs with an 83.6 QB rating in the team's two losses. The Bucs average just 86.0 YPG on the ground (27th) but it's good news that RB Doug Martin returned from his suspension vs. the Pats and gained 74 yards on 13 carries Arizona: The Cards allowed 419 yards of total offense at Philadelphia and checks in allowing 25.0 PPG (27th) on the season. QB Carson Palmer and the Arizona offense ranks second in passing yards (289.0 YPG) but the team is averaging only 16.2 PPG (29th). One of the issues is the NFL's werst rushing attack, as Arizona has averaged 51.8 YPG to rank dead-last, as does the team's 2.6 YPC average! Arizona obtained 2012 NFL MVP Adrian Peterson from New Orleans on Tuesday with hopes that the 32-year-old will resemble his former self after enduring a miserable four-game tenure with the Saints (ran for 81 yards on 27 carries, averaging 3.0 YPC). The pick: Arizona is 2-3 with its two wins coming in OT victories at Indy and at home vs. San Francisco. Those two teams are a combined 2-8 SU and Arizona failed to cover either win. That means the Cards enter this game 0-5 ATS on the season. Adding insult to injury, the Cardinals had 13 players listed on their injury report earlier in the week and nine of them were starters, including All-Pro cornerback Patrick Peterson with a sore quadriceps. This marks only Tampa Bay's second road game of 2017 but it should be noted that the Bucs were 6-2 ATS on the road in 2016. The Cards have a 'washed-up' QB in Palmer and have now added a 'washed-up' RB in Adrian Peterson. That's hardly a good 'daily double!' Make the Bucs are 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Patriots v. Jets OVER 47.5 | Top | 24-17 | Loss | -110 | 121 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a Week 6 game featuring AFC East rivals at MetLife Stadium this Sunday, as the New England Patriots visit the New York Jets. Who could have ever predicted in Week 1 that both teams would be 3-2 heading into this contest, meaning the winner will take the early AFC East lead. this contest. After all, the Pats are defending Super Bowl champs and the Jets, after a summer 'fire sale,' seemed destined to be one of a handful of teams that woiuld be in teh mix for teh NFL 2018 Daraft's No. 1 overall pick. However, the Pats were upended in the 2017 season-opener at home by the Chiefs and need to eke out an 'ugly' 189-14 win in Week 5 at Tampa Bay just to reach 3-2. Meanwhile, after opening 0-2, the Jets have gone 3-0 SU & ATS the last three weeks, with the team's defense holding those three opponents to just 40 combined points (13.3 PPG). New England: There's nothing wrong with Tom Brady, as he's completing 68.2% with 11 TDs and just one interception, giving him a QB rating of 112.0. The Pats rank first in passing (320.4 YPG), the main reason New England ranks first overall in total yards (419.4 YPG), while checking in at third in scoring at 29.6 PPG. Brady's accomplished all this with injuries to some of his key receivers plus playing behind an OL that's allowed him to be sacked 16 times. Brady has also has to make up for a defense, which has been unable to stop anyone, particularly through the air, allowing an NFL-worst 323.4 YPG (12 TDs allowed with just three INTs for a an opposing QB rating of 109.2). The Pats allow 28.4 PPG to rank 30th. NY Jets: There was talk the Jets would threaten the Browns and that the loser of their Week 5 meeting could go 0-16, after two weeks. However, after losing 45-10 in Oakland in Week 2, the Jets have managed to win and cover three straight. Granted, their 'victims' have been the Dolphins, Jags and Browns (Cleveland will make a strong run at 0-16!) but still, allowing just 13.3 PPG in their winning streak is impressive. Josh McCown, a journeyman who toiled for the Browns last season, has completed 63 of 84 passes in the winning streak (that's 75.0%), twice recording QB ratings of better than 100.0. The Jets don't have a big-name RB but still have maneged to average 111.4 YPG to rank 13th. The pick: The Pats will take the field looking for their 11th win in 13 regular-season meetings against Jets. OK, Brady is arguably the best QB in NFL history, winning five Super Bowls while playing for only the New England Patriots since he was drafted in the sixth round. He has a 186-54 career regular-season record and 25-9 mark in the playoffs. Meanwhile, McCown has been on 10 different NFL rosters since he was drafted in the third round in 2002. His career record as a starter is 21-44 career record and he has never sniffed the playoffs. No contest, right? Well, New England has allowed at least 33 points in three of five games this year and even in last weeks' 19-14 win, Winston threw for 334 yards against the Pats' defense-less secondary, plus needed Buc PK Nick Folk to miss three FGs to avoid another loss. McCown will do damage to New England's secondary, just like every QB has so far this season. However, Brady will 'light up' the Jets' D, as well. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-15-17 | Lions v. Saints -4.5 | Top | 38-52 | Win | 100 | 121 h 49 m | Show |
The set-up: The Lions opened the 2017 season 2-0 but have lost two of their last three and head to New Orleans at 3-2 to take on the rejuvenated Saints. New Orleans opened its season with double-digit losses at Minnesota and home to New England but then shocked the Panthers 34-13 in Carolina in Week 3, before beating the Dolphins 20-0 in a Week 4 London game. The first bye week was in Week 5 and the Saints were one of four teams getting an early rest. The Saints return to the playing field on Sunday and welcome a Lions team to the Superdome but the Lions have beaten the Saints in each of the last three seasons, 24-23 in Detroit in 2014, then 35-27 and 28-13 the last two years here in New Orleans. Detroit: The Lions' plus-9 turnover margin had been a key to the team's 3-1 start but they couldn't force a TO against the Panthers last Sunday, as Cam Newton ripped Detroit's pass D for 355 yards and three TDs. QB Matthew Stafford is completing 64.6% with nine TDs and just one INT but the Lions rank just 23rd in passing (200.6 YPG). RB Ameer Abdullah had a career-high 94 yards in the Week 4 win at Minnesota but has done little in the team's other four games, averaging less than 50 yards per. As a team, Detroit is averaging just 87.6 YPG on the ground to rank 26th. Detroit has allowed a modest 19.4 PPG (11th) but a concern, after Newton ripped open the team's secondary, is that the Lions are starting to look like the pass D which allowed a historic (not in a good way) 72.7% completion rate in 2016, with 33 TD passes allowed, just 10 INTs and an opposing QB rating of 106.5 (NFL-worst in 2016). New Orleans. Drew Brees has watched the game film of Newton picking apart that Detroit pass D and he must be salivating. Brees hasn't thrown an interception in 152 attempts so far in 2017, while tossing eight TDs passes and earning a QB rating of 108.3. The "unhappy" Adrian Peterson was traded to Arizona this week, which should make things more pleasant on the sidelines, give Mark Ingram a jolt of confidence plus get more "PT" for impressive rookie QB Alvin Kamara. Let's also note the incredible turnaround of New Orleans' pass D. New Orleans allowed a league-worst 777 passing yards (along with six TD passes) in opening 0-2 but in holding the Panthers and Dolphins to a combined 13 points in Week 3 & 4 wins, the Saints shut down Newton (167 yards with no TD passes and three INTs for a QB rating of 43.8) and Cutler (164 yards and one INT for a QB rating of 71.1). The pick. It's just not Brees who has been mistake-free, as the Saints are the only team to have no yet committed a turnover in 2017. In the process, they have become just the third NFL team since 1935 to open the season without a TO through its first four games (pretty heady stuff). Sure, the Saints are only 11-14 at the Superdome since 2014 but with a younger, more talented defense, there are signs the team is beginning to rise above mediocrity on that side of the ball. As for the Brees-led offense, there is nothing mediocre about them! Make New Orleans a 10* play. |
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10-14-17 | Oregon v. Stanford OVER 61.5 | Top | 7-49 | Loss | -105 | 121 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: The Stanford Cardinal began the 2017 season ranked 14th in the AP's preseason poll but dropped out after back-to-back road losses at USC (42-24) and San Diego State (20-17). However, the Cardinal eked out a 20-17 win at Utah (then ranked 20th) last Saturday, giving them a third straight win. Stanford is back in the top-25 (at No. 23) and will welcome the 4-2 Oregon Ducks to Stanford Stadium on Saturday night. Both teams are 4-2 but while Stanford is 3-1 in Pac 12 play, Oregon is just 1-2. Oregon: The Ducks opened the season 3-0 but have lost two of three conference games, after falling 33-10 at home last Saturday to Washington State (Cougars are currently ranked 8th). New head coach Willie Taggart lost starting QB Sean Hebert (9 TDs and 2 INTs, while completing 68.3 %) early on in Oregon's 45-24 home win over Cal and on Sep. 30. Braxton Burmeister has stepped in to complete 57.1 percent of his passes for 149 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. Burmeister enters this game with just 28 career pass attempts under his belt. The running game averages a healthy 239.3 YPG (20th) and the Ducks enter this contest averaging 43.0 PPG (11th). The defense has allowed just 338.3 YPG (29th) but allows 27.2 PPG, to rank 76th. Stanford: There's a saying that goes when a team has two starting QBs, it often has none. Keller Chryst and K.J. Costello have combined for seven touchdown passes and two interceptions this season but Stanford averages only 188.3 YPG through the air (93rd). However, Stanford just may have the nation's best RB in Bryce Love, who leads the way with 1,240 yards (10.5 YPC) and nine TDs. As a team, Stanford ranks 14th in rushing yards at 260.0 YPG. The D allows 434.8 YPG (102nd) but somehow has held opponents to a modest 24.5 PPG (55th). The pick: Burmeister was a highly-touted QB coming in and should be much better here, in his second start. That Stanford defense has given up way too many yards to keep opponents under 25 points. Let's remember that Oregon was the nation's highest-scoring team heading into last Saturday's home game against Washington State but true freshman Burmeister struggled in his first start, with Oregon getting hammered 33-10 by the Cougars 33-10. The usually supportive crowd at Autzen Stadium booed the Ducks, so being on the road this weekend may be a blessing. Oregon's rush D has been outstanding so far but that D hasn't seen the likes of Stanford's Love. These teams have scored 74 and 78 points in meetings the last two seasons and this over/number comes in way too low. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-14-17 | Sabres v. Kings -165 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 16 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Buffalo Sabres finished 33-37-12 last season, giving them 78 points. That left them 8th of eight team in the Atlantic Division and 17 points shy of the Eastern Conference's final playoff team. With six consecutive postseason absences, the Sabres fired GM Tim Murray and head coach Dan Bylsma in the off-season, hoping to turn the team's fortunes around. Bylsma was unable to guide Buffalo back into the playoffs in his two seasons and was replaced by Phil Housley, the NHL's all-time second-leading scorer amongst American-born players. However, four losses in as many games (0-3-1), have turned up the frustration level. Thursday's 3-2 loss at San Jose on Thursday began Buffalo's four-game Western road trip, which tonight has them in LA to play the Kings. Los Angeles lost for the first time this season on Wednesday, 4-3 in overtime to Calgary in what was the opener of a four-game homestand (Kings are 2-0-1 to open the new season). Buffalo: Jack Eichel was the 2015 Hobey Baker Award winner and was recently signed to an eight-year, $80 million contract extension. He set up both goals (has one goal & four assists on the season) by Jason Pominville (four goals & one assist for the season) in Thursday's 3-2 loss. "We've got to just figure a way to be sick of losing," Eichel told the Buffalo News after the loss to San Jose. "I know I'm sick of losing. There's a lot of guys that are sick of losing." Los Angeles: Dustin Brown recorded his 15th career three-point performance (two goals, one assist) in the Kings' 4-3 OT loss on Wednesda and has five points (three goals & two assists) in his last two games. Captain Anze Kopitar recorded his second straight multi-point performance by scoring and setting up a goal versus Calgary and also has five points (three goals & two assists) in his last two games. Head coach John Stevens credited Kopitar and Brown's ability to work well together as reasoning for the fast start out of the gate. "Brown and Kopi (the two longest-tenured members of the Kings) have a long history of being good together. They’ve been great together all training camp," Stevens said. The pick: Both clubs have had weak special teams play in the early going, as the Sabres have allowed a league-leading four shorthanded goals after allowing four all of last season, while the Kings are 0-for-16 on the power play, one of four NHL teams that has yet to score with the man-advantage. Kings goalkeeper Jonathan Quick hasn't faced the Buffalo Sabres very often since making his NHL debut against them nearly 10 years ago. However, Quick owns a 5-1-0 mark with three shutouts and a 1.22 goals-against average in his career versus Buffalo. His GAA vs. the Sabres is the lowest against any NHL team. Make the Kings an 8* play. |
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10-14-17 | Predators v. Blackhawks OVER 5.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Chicago Blackhawks won Stanley Cup titles in 2010, 2013 and 2015 and after massing a Western Conference-leading 109 points last season, were expected to make a strong run at the fourth title since 2010. However, Chicago's postseason hopes were extinguished in the first round as the Blackhawks were handed a stunning four-game sweep by the eighth-seeded Nashville Predators. Chicago (3-1-1) suffered its first regulation loss of the news season at the hands of Minnesota on Thursday (5-2) and will welcome the 2-2-0 Predators to the United Center for the first time since losing to them in last year's playoffs. Nashville: The Predators opened the season with a pair of losses but have rebounded to win their last two (6-5 and 4-1) behind three goals and five assists from Filip Forsberg. Nashville features one of the top defenses in the league but could be shorthanded against Chicago. Captain Roman Josi sat out practice Friday due to a lower-body injury that has sidelined him for the past two games and Yannick Weber had to leave Thursday's loss after taking a shoulder to the head and is listed as day-to-day. Pekka Rinne started in net for both Predators' victories this week and is expected to earn the nod again vs. Chicago. Rinne is 2-1-0 with a 3.09 goals-against average and a .902 save percentage this season. Chicago: Nick Schmaltz combined with linemates Patrick Kane and Ryan Hartman for 10 points in a 10-1 romp over Pittsburgh back on Oct. 6, before he suffered an upper-body injury in the next game versus Columbus. Schmaltz has missed the past three games but is expected to rejoin the lineup for Saturday's matchup. "He has a lot of speed and it makes the defense second-guess. ... It gives the guy with the puck more time with the puck. He's definitely a key part to our success," said Hartman. The Blackhawks lead the league with 23 goals. The pick: There we be no lack of motivation for Chicago in this one (early-season game or not) and in particular, Chicago needs to re-establish its ability to score against Nashville (and Rinne). After all, in last year's 4-0 sweep at the hands of the Predators, Chicago managed just three goals and was shut out in both home games! The Preds come in 0-2-0 on the road so far, having allowed four goals in each loss. The Over is a 10* play in this one. |
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10-14-17 | Ohio State -24 v. Nebraska | Top | 56-14 | Win | 100 | 117 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ohio State Buckeyes are 5-1 (3-0 Big Ten) and ranked No. 9 in the latest AP poll as they head to Lincoln, Nebraska to take on the 3-3 (2-1 Big Ten) Nebraska Cornhuskers at Memorial Stadium. Ohio State's season (meaning CFP hopes) took a huge hit with its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma back on Sep. 9 but the Buckeyes have won four straight since, while averaging 52.5 PPG. Nebraska was within seven points of No. 7 Wisconsin entering the fourth quarter last week but dropped a 38-17 decision after winning its first two Big Ten contests. However, a non-conference loss at Oregon and a 21-17 non-conference home loss to Northern Illinois (as a 10 1/2-point favorite), leaves Nebarska at 3-3 and in danger of falling under .500 with a loss here. Ohio State: J.T. Barrett under-performed against Oklahoma but has 13 TD passes without an INT (in 104 attempts), In Ohio State's current run. Dobbins (669 yards on 7.6 YPC and 4 TDs) has taken up the slack for Mike Weber, last year's 1,000-yard RB, who has not been healthy for much of 2017 (has 103 yards rushing the last two games, with four TDs). The offense has great balance, 320.3 YPG through the air (4th) and 247.7 YPG on the ground (18th), to average 45.8 PPG (4th). Urban Meyer teams always play D and this year's team is no exception, allowing 15.7 PPG (10th) on 290.7 YPG (14th). Nebraska: Much was expected from Tulane transfer Tanner Lee but the QB has been a huge disappointment. He's completing only 54.0 percent and has almost as many INTs (10), as TD passes (11). Nebraska's ground game is averaging only 148.5 YPG (82nd) with Devine Ozigbo leading the way with a modest 327 yards. Defensively, Nebraska is allowing 26.7 PPG (73rd) and will get its sternest test, here. The pick: Anyone doubting Barrett should be quiet now and as noted, his counterpart Lee, has been a fairly huge bust! With Nebraska relatively new to the Big Ten, the schools have met just five times, with Ohio State winning four of those meetings. Sure, Ohio State is a huge favorite on the road but since coming to Columbus, Meyer's teams are a remarkable 36-2 SU on the road, including 21-1 in conference road games. I'll 'live dangerously' and lay the points against an over-matched Nebraska team. Make Ohio State an 8* play. |
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10-14-17 | Yankees v. Astros OVER 7.5 | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Dallas Keuchel had dominated the Yankees in the recent past and it was no different in Game 1 of the ALCS, as the lefty pitched seven scoreless innings, allowing three hits while striking out 10. However, New York's Masahiro Tanaka, who was just 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 15 road starts in 2017 and 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career regular season starts against Houston, didn't shy away from the big moment, either He gave the Yanks six innings, allowing just two runs on four hits. However, Houston was able to eke out a 2-1 win. Game 2 of the series is set for 4:05 ET, today. The pitching matchup: Game 1 was a pitchers' duel and here in Game 2, the Yankees send out their ace, Luis Severino to face Houston's "big-time trade deadline addition," Justin Verlander. Severino was 14-6 (2.98 ERA) for the Yankees in 2017, after he went 3-8 overall with a 5.83 ERA over 22 appearances in 2016, including 11 starts (Yanks were 2-9). Talk about a turnaround! He make the 2017 All Star game while recording career bests in wins (14), WHIP (1.04), and strikeouts, finishing fourth-best among AL pitchers with 230 (allowed only 51 walks). Severino could only get one out in the wild card game against Minnesota (allowed three runs on two HRs) but he allowed three runs on four hits (again, two HRs) but struck out nine Indians over seven innings in his 7-3 Game 4 victory, which sent the series back to Cleveland for a Game 5 (I think you know how that turned out). Verlander was 15-8 with a 3.36 ERA for Detroit and Houston in 2017 but his 15 wins don't tell the whole story. The former MVP and Cy Young winner was 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts with the Astros and in the postseason (one start and one relief stint, the ONLY one of his career), has picked up two wins (3.12 ERA). He has posted a 3.55 ERA in five career starts in the ALCS, including an eight-inning outing in which he allowed one run and struck out 10 in his last such outing against the Red Sox in 2013. Verlander has seen plenty of the Yankees in his career, going 8-7 with a 3.82 ERA over 22 career starts (team is 10-12). The pick: Yes, we have two top-of-the-rotation starters in this one but Severino is still a question mark. He was by most metrics the third-best pitcher in the AL this season but he's just 23 years old and comes with a bit of volatility. Severino struggled in both of his starts against the Astros this season, allowing three runs on six hits and three walks over 2 1/3 innings on May 14 at Yankee Stadium, before surrendering six runs on nine hits and one walk with seven strikeouts over 5 1/3 innings in Houston on July 2. That figures to a 10.59 ERA. Remember, he's facing a Houston team which led MLB in scoring at 5.53 RPG, in team BA at .282 and in OPS at .823 while ranking second in HRs with 238 (Severino has allowed four HRs in seven-plus postseason innings). As for the Yanks, they were only team to hit more HRs (241) than Houston, which could give Verlander pause. I still don't understand manager Hinch's decision to use Verlander in relief in a Game 4 situation, with his team leading two games to one. Again, Verlander had NEVER made a relief appearance in his career. Is that enough to :"throw him off?" I can't be sure (how could anyone be?) but the bet says this will not a replay of Game 1's pitchers' duel. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-14-17 | Oklahoma v. Texas OVER 62.5 | Top | 29-24 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: The Oklahoma Sooners and the Texas Longhorns will meet Saturday at the Cotton Bowl on ESPN for the latest edition of the Red River Rivalry. The Sooners will 'limp in' off yet another shocking early-to-mid-season loss. "Big Game Bob" may be gone, but Oklahoma's penchant for losing games that it should win, is still "alive and well." Oklahoma climbed as high as No. 2 in the rankings after beating Ohio State on the road Sep. 9, but the Sooners have struggled in three games since, winning the first two (1-1 ATS) before last week's 'ugly' 38-31 loss to Iowa State in Norman, where Oklahoma closed as a 31-point favorite. It marks the SEVENTH consecutive season in which the Sooners have lost as a double-digit favorite. Tom Herman became a star in two years at Houston and was a 'natural' for the Texas job. The Longhorns opened the season ranked in the AP's preseason poll but promptly lost at home 51-41 to Maryland, as an 18-point favorite. However, the Longhorns have rebounded well, going 3-1 since, with their only loss being a 27-24 double-OT defeat at USC. Texas holds a 61-45-5 lead in the series, which began in 1900 and has been played at the Texas State Fair annually since 1929. Herman and Oklahoma's Lincoln Riley will be making their head coaching debuts in the Red River Showdown, marking the first time since 1947, when Blair Cherry's Longhorns beat Bud Wilkinson's Sooners, 34-14, that the rivalry has featured new coaches on both sidelines. Oklahoma: QB Baker Mayfield completed 70.9% last season with 40 TDs and eight INTs. He's been just as good so far in 2017 (better?), completing 74.6% with 15 TDs and not a single INT in 134 pass attempts. Oklahoma ranks fifth in passing yards (3984.4 per) and secnd in total offense (587.0 YPG), while scoring 44.6 PPG (6th). The defense has been adequate, allowing 23.2 PPG (46th) on 356.0 YPG (44th). However, that's after allowing an average of 486 yards and 39.5 points over its last two games against Baylor and Iowa State? For Lincoln Riley (Stoops' replacement), this game will be HUGE. "I think in the past after a tough loss -- we haven't had many around here -- but when we've had them, we've been able to respond regardless of who we've played," Riley said. "I would hope that we have enough pride -- and I feel we do have enough pride as a team -- that we'd be motivated to go play Norman Junior High this week." Texas: It won't be Norman Junior High this week for Riley and Oklahoma but rather Texas. You can assured that Tom Herman knows what this game means. What happens here, could set the tone for the remainder of the Longhorns' season. Herman has been coy about who his starting QB will be after sophomore starter Shane Buechele missed the Kansas State victory with a sprained ankle, with freshman Sam Ehlinger passing for 380 yards and two TDs, while also rushing for 107 more Saturday. Buechele is a good QB but many think Ehlinger has proven to be much more than valuable backup. The Texas defense has "picked itself up" after that embarrassing opening 51-41 loss to Maryland, allowing just 17.0 PPG the last four games (down to 23.8 PPG on the season). The pick: Oklahoma lost another game as a double-digit favorite, so what else is new? However, here's a stat one can't ignore. The Sooners haven't lost back-to-back regular-season games since 1999, Bob Stoops' first season in Norman (that's a long time!). Oklahoma has scored at least 30 points in a school-record 15 consecutive games and go back and check out Mayfield's numbers this season (see above). The Sooners will be tough to keep off the scoreboard in this one but I also believe the Longhorns offense will "come to play." Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-14-17 | Michigan -6.5 v. Indiana | Top | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 110 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The 4-1 Michigan Wolverines lost at home to Michigan State last Saturday, falling from 7th in the AP poll to 17th. Jim Harbaugh is now just 1-4 SU vs. key Big Ten rivals Ohio State and Michigan State, something the Michigan faithful are clearly not happy about. The Wolverines look to bounce back this Saturday with a 12 noon ET kickoff in Bloomington, with the 3-2 Indiana Hoosiers (0-2 in Big Ten play) welcoming Michigan to town for the school's Homecoming game. No one will be surprised to learn that Michigan leads the series 56-9 or even that the Hoosiers have lost 35 of their last 36 meetings with the Wolverines, including 21 straight. Michigan: Wilton Speight won the QB battle against John O'Koren but was hardly establishing himself as the clear choice as Michigan's No. 1 QB. However, a season-ending injury to Speight at Purdue on Sep. 23 (back fractures), ended any debate. O'Korn played well enough at Purdue, completing 18 of 26 for 270 yards with one TD and one INT, as Michigan won 28-14. It's true that Michigan's offense wasn't exactly lighting things up with Speight on the field but the Wolverines couldn't get anything going at all last week with O'Korn leading the way, scoring just 10 points, going 5-17 on third down and turning the ball over five times. O'Korn was 16 of 35 for 198 yards without a TD and threw three INTs. It didn't help Speight and it won't help O'Korn that Michigan's running game is only mediocre, averaging 167.8 YPG (62nd). Last year's team averaged 213 per! Defensively, despite losing 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit, Michigan ranks first in total D (213.0 YPG) and just 13.6 PPG, which ranks 7th. Indiana: The Hoosiers opened their season in an August 31 game at home against Ohio State (lost 49-21) but have won three of four since. However, that loss came 45-14 at Penn State on Sep. 30. Indiana's 34-17 at Virginia looks good (Cavs are 4-1) but the team's other two wins mean little, besting Georgia Southern and Charleston Southern in Bloomington. Richard Lagow began the year as Indiana's starting QB and threw for 410 against Ohio State but redshirt freshman Peyton Ramsey replaced him the following game after Lagow struggled. Ramsey led Indiana to that 34-17 win while completing 16 of 20 for 173 yards with two TDs and zero INTs. After Indiana was embarrassed at Penn State, Ramsey was given his first career start last Saturday. Sure, it was only against Charleston Southern, but he threw for 321 yards and two TDs. He also added 54 rushing yards and a third TD. Another freshman, WR Taysir Mack hauled in a career-high seven receptions for 111 yards and a pair of TDs to become the first Indiana freshman to surpass 100 receiving yards in a game since Tandon Doss achieved the feat in 2008. Indiana's defense allowed 27.2 PPG in 2016, after six consecutive seasons of allowing 30-plus PPG. It's improved on that again so far in 2017, allowing 25.6 PPG (59th). The pick: The Hoosiers' last win over Michigan was 30 years ago in Bloomington and Indiana won't end its 21-game long streak to Michigan here. However, should one "take the points?" Maybe, if Michigan had not lost last Saturday to Michigan State. This is just wrong time, wrong place for Indiana and losses of 49-21 and 45-14 against Penn State loom here as a reminder as to why to NOT take the points. Make Michigan an 8* play. |
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10-13-17 | Washington State v. California +14 | Top | 3-37 | Win | 100 | 96 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Washington State Cougars are 6-0 (3-0 in the Pac 12) for the first time since 2001. The Cougars moved into the AP's top-10 (at No. 8) after winning 33-10 at Oregon last Saturday. The Cal Golden Bears welcome the Cougars to Memorial Stadium on Friday night, off a 38-7 loss at current No. 7 Washington last Saturday in Seattle. Cal sits 3-3 overall but 0-3 in Pac 12 play. Washington State. Mike Leach suffered through two 3-9 seasons in his first three years at Cal but came into 2017 off back-to-back 9-4 and 8-5 records the last two seasons. He's got an outstanding QB in Luke Falk, who likely isn't getting getting enough Heisman hype. Falk is completing 71.8 percent with 19 TDs and just two INTs, while climbing up the leader boards for career marks in both the Pac 12 and among all FBS schools. All this, despite getting much help from a running game that averages 96.8 YPG (123rd). Still, WSU is averaging 39.7 PPG (20th) on 474.7 YPG (23rd). A huge improvement has come on the defensive side of the ball. Leach's last two teams held opponents to 27.7 and 26.4 PPG, respectively, after his first three teams in Pullman allowed 33.7, 32.5 and 38.6 PPG. Here in 2017, Wazzu is holding opponents to just 18.5 PPG (23rd) on 276.2 YPG (11th). Now that's an improvement! California: Cal opened 3-0 in non-conference play but has lost Pac 12 games 30-20 to USC, 45-24 at Oregon and 38-7 at Washington, a game in which the Bears were held to 93 yards of total offense. After averaging 37.1 PPG last season, Cal is averaging just 24.3 PPG (96th) in 2017. However, while Cal allowed 42.6 PPG in 2016, the Bears have held opponents to 29.8 PPG in 2017 (ranks 89th but that's almost two TDs per game less!). The pick: Cal's been outscored by an average of 20.7 PPG in its 0-3 Pac 12 start and as first-year head coach Justin Wilcox put it, “We just, across the board, have got to be better. It’s hard right now. We’re sitting at 3-3, we’ve lost three in a row, we haven’t played well enough. We’ve got to be better.” While the Bears’ offense is in disarray, the defense continues to show steady improvement. I'll note that Leach's team is 16-7 ATS a visitor since 2013 but only 2-3 ATS as a road favorite in that span. Here, the Cougars are favored by about two TDs. That's too much. Make Cal a 10* play. |
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10-13-17 | Ducks -115 v. Avalanche | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -115 | 23 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Avalanche have opened 3-1-0 and look to continue that strong start on Friday when they host the 2-1-1 Anaheim Ducks at the Pepsi Center. However, the Avs are well aware that they also won three of their first four games in 2016-17, before they imploded and finished with an NFL-worst 48 points on the season (fewest points of any NHL team in the salary cap era). Colorado enters this contest off a home-and-home sweep of the Bruins (won 6-3 at home Wednesday, after winning 4-0 Monday in Boston), while the Ducks will play on the road for the first time this season, after concluding a 2-1-1 homestand with a 3-2 win over the New York Islanders on Wednesday. Anaheim: Patrick Eaves returned from a three-game absence due to a lower-body injury (was inserted on the top line with Ryan Getzlaf and Corey Perry) and chipped in a goal. Colorado:The Avalanche are right where they were a year ago after four games but are feeling confident and not looking backwards regarding last season's 'nightmare.' There is a different feel to this start as opposed to last season's and that's experience. The Avalanche remember how things went sideways in November, when they went from a .500 team to last in the NHL. They feel they have learned from last season, and they have improved. Nail Yakupov scored three goals in Colorado's home-and-home sweep of Boston, while Matt Duchene collected three points (one goal, two assists). Jonathan Bernier will be in goal and ready to face his former team. He stepped up last season for the Ducks in lieu of injuries to John Gibson and posted a 21-7-4 mark and recorded at least a point in 14 of his last 15 starts, going 12-1-2. The pick: The Ducks may get to face an Avalanche team without one of their young stars. Tyson Jost didn't practice Thursday after getting checked into the boards in the second period against Boston. He was helped off with a left knee injury but returned and scored an empty-net goal to secure the win. Head coach Jared Bednar told reporters that he was unsure if the rookie would play versus the Ducks. Anaheim, like most teams, had plenty of success against Colorado last season, winning all three meetings on its way to the Western Conference finals. Yes, this is the Ducks' its first road game but I'm far from ready to 'buy in' on the Avalanche team. Let's not forget that the Avs finished the 2016-17 season last in the league in goals per game (2.01), goals allowed (3.37), power-play efficiency (12.6) and second to last on the penalty kill (77.3). Make Anaheim an 8* play. |
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10-13-17 | Yankees v. Astros -156 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 22 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Houston Astros owned the AL's best record for most of the season but Cleveland's 33-4 finish allowed the Indians to edge out the Astros for the AL's No. 1 seed, 102 wins to 101. That meant the Astros expected to have to get past the Indians in the ALCS with Cleveland owning the home field edge. However, a funny thing happened on the way to that expected showdown, as Cleveland collapsed after taking a 2-0 lead over the Yankees. New York's pitching silenced Cleveland's lineup, allowing just six runs in winning Games 3, 4 and 5. So instead of a Houston/Cleveland showdown, it's Yankees/Astros, as MLB's best offense (Astros led MLB in scoring at 5.53 RPG, in team BA at .282 and in OPS at .823 while ranking second in HRs with 238), face the only team to hit more HRs in the regular season than the Astros (Yanks hit 241). The pitching matchup: Masahiro Tanaka(1-0 & 0.00 ERA) will start for the Yankees and Dallas Keuchel (1-0 & 1.59 ERA) for the Astros. Both were sharp in their lone ALDS outings but on the season, Tanaka was 13-12 with a 4.74 ERA and Keuchel,14-5 with a 2.90 ERA. Tanaka pitched the Yankees to a 1-0 win over the Indians in Game 3 by working seven shutout innings, allowing three hits and one walk with seven strikeouts. Tanaka also twirled seven shutout frames in his last start of the regular season, defeating the Toronto Blue Jays 4-0. However, those excellent two outings don't tell the whole story. While Tanaka was 9-5 with a 3.22 ERA over 15 regular-season home starts, he is 4-7 with a 6.48 ERA and 1.50 WHIP over 15 road starts in 2017 (Yanks were 6-9). What's more, he is 0-2 with a 10.38 ERA over four career regular season starts against Houston (Yanks are 1-3). In contrast, the Astros were 16-7 in Keuchel's regular season starts and here in Houston, he owns a 2.21 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 12 home starts, including his Game 2 win in the ALDS. It sure doesn't hurt Keuchel's or Houston's confidence that he's also 4-2 with a 1.41 ERA over six career starts against the Yankees in the regular season plus owns a wild card win over them in 2015 (5-2 & 1.24 ERA, overall). The pick: Is it good news or bad new that the Yanks got past Cleveland while rookie sensation Aaron Judge went 1 of 20 in the ALDS, striking out an incredible 16 times? It's probably good news that of the nine Yankees to record double-digit at-bats in the ALDS, only four were in the lineup against Keuchel two postseasons ago, when he beat them 3-0 in a wild card game at Yankee Stadium (6 IP / 3 hits and a 7-0 KW ratio). The Yankees dropped to 41-43 on the road this season by losing two of three in Cleveland in the ALDS and with Tanaka's road woes this season (reminder, above), can hardly be trusted here against Keuchel (see above) and a Houston team which is now 50-33 at home on the season. Tanaka was out-dueled by Keuchel in that 2015 wild card game (Yanks are 1-4 in Tanaka's five all-time starts vs. the Astros) and don't expect a different result, here. Make the Astros a 10* play. |
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10-12-17 | Sabres v. Sharks -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 21 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Buffalo Sabres and the San Jose Sharks meet tonight at the SAP Center in San Jose, with both clubs looking for their first win of the new season. The Sabres are 0-2-1 and the Sharks, 0-2-0. Interestingly, while the Sharks have been the way more successful team in recent years, the Sharks' 4-1 win back on March 14th of last season, halted the Sabres' five-game winning streak in San Jose and a 10-0-1 Buffalo run overall in the series. That said, neither team is thinking too much about series history at this point, as both clubs just need that first win! Buffalo: The Sabres Buffalo are 'licking their wounds' after being shredded for 12 goals in the team's last two defeats. Buffalo opens a four-game road trip in San Jose tonight, which includes three games in California plus the team's first visit to Las Vegas. "Yeah, I know it's only three games, but it's six points," defenseman Rasmus Ristolainen said. "At the end of the year the schedule might be tough and you need every point so right now the good thing is, it's on this tough road trip against really, really good teams." New coach Phil Housley juggled his lines at Tuesday's practice, elevating Zemgus Girgensons to the top line while inserting Evander Kane alongside Ryan O'Reilly and Kyle Okposo. "You change the lines to try to get other guys going or maybe there's some chemistry that you're looking for," Housley said. They could change tomorrow, but we thought we would try these combinations moving forward." San Jose: San Jose coach Pete DeBoer also has tinkered with both his lines and power-play units during practice this week and might have a new face on the blue line. Defenseman Paul Martin exited Tuesday's practice after 10 minutes, possibly opened the door for Swedish rookie Tim Heed to play in his second career game. “Had a great year last year, arguably the best defenseman in the (AHL),” DeBoer said. He’s going to play some games and get an opportunity." It will be hard for San Jose to earn a win, if goalie Martin Jones doesn't improve his play. He currently owns a 5.17 GAA and an .864 SP. The pick: Evander Kane has produced consecutive two-goal games for Buffalo, after scoring a team-high 28 goals in 70 games last season. Jack Eichel had 24 goals last year and has one in three games this season. However, the Sabres are not generating offense from other veterans, as Ryan O'Reilly, Kyle Okposo and Matt Moulson have combined for one assist and are a minus-12. “When you’re sitting two losses with no points in the standings, it stirs you up and makes you hungry to go get a ‘W’ and makes you want to come fired up for Thursday,” San Jose center Chris Tierney said. San Jose hasn't started a season with three straight losses since 1993-94, when it went dropped four straight en route to a nine-game winless stretch that included one tie. That was then and this is now. Buffalo's 78 points left them 8th in the Atlantic Division, while San Jose earned 99 points in finishing 3rd in the Pacific. While the Sabres went just 13-22-6 on the road last season, San Jose was an impressive 26-1-4 at SAP Center. San Jose goalie Jones has started poorly but he is 2-1-1 with a 2.22 GAA against the Sabres. Make the Sharks an 8* play. |
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10-12-17 | Eagles +3.5 v. Panthers | Top | 28-23 | Win | 100 | 56 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles opened the 2016 season 3-0 in September, behind rookie QB Carson Wentz. However, Wentz and his team cooled off fairly quickly, losing nine of their next 11 games, before ending the season with back-to-back wins in Weeks 16 and 17 to finish 7-9. The Eagles are at it again in 2017, opening 4-1 and the question is, is this real or is it Memorex? We may get our answer Thursday night, when the Eagles travel to Bank of America Stadium to take on the 4-1 Carolina Panthers. The Panthers were 15-1 in 2015 and made it all the way to the Super Bowl but fell from first to last in the NFC South in 2016, going 6-10. However, this year's team and particularly QB Cam Newton, are beginning to look much more like the 2015 team than last year's sad-sack unit. Again, we may just learn something about the Panthers here on Thursday night, as well. Philadelphia: Wentz continues to make converts of the non-believers, as he's leading an offense averaging 27.4 PPG (7th). He's completing 62.1% with 10 TDs and just three INTs (97.7 QB rating), while the Eagles rank 8th in passing (259.0 YPG). RB LeGarrette Blount is starting to make an impact (323 yards rushing) and the Eagles' 138.8 YPG on the ground ranks 5th. The defense is allowing 19.8 PPG (13th) and excels in stopping opponents' ground game, allowing just 62.8 YPG (2nd-best). The problem against Carolina and Newton may be, that Philly's pass D allows 283.2 YPG, which ranks 29th of 32 teams. Carolina: The Panthers opened 2-0 but were hardly impressive in doing so, beating the sad-sack 49ers 23-3 and the Bills 9-3. When Carolina lost 34-13 at home to the then 0-2 Saints 34-13 in Week 3, with Newton passing for just 167 yards and throwing three INTs (QB rating of 43.8), critics were everywhere. However, what a difference a couple of weeks can make. Newton led the Panthers to a 33-30 win at New England in Week 5 and then at Detroit last Sunday, 27-24. He's earned QB ratings of 130.8 and 141.8, while throwing for 671 yards and six TDs (just one INT in 61 attempts). He has a trio of quality receivers in Kelvin Benjamin, Ed Dickson and Devin Funchess (not to mention rookie RB Christian McCaffrey's 27 catches) but Carolina's ground game needs to improve (its 98.6 YPG ranks only 19th). Defensively, Carolina is allowing only 274.0 YPG (3rd) and just 18.8 PPG (9th), down from 25.1 PPG in 2016. The pick: All but four of last week's 14 games were decided by six points or fewer but Philadelphia was one of the exceptions, routing the Cardinals 34-7. Philly fans are clearly riding high but while the Eagles' bandwagon is becoming crowded let's insert here that Philly's current three-game win streak has come over the Giants, Chargers and Cardinals, who are a combined 2-13 SU. Then again, here's the other side of that. The Eagles only loss of the 2017 season is 27-20 at the Chiefs, who are 5-0 SU and ATS. Love what Newton's done the last two weeks but the Panthers are 0-2 ATS at home in 2017 (averaging just 11.0 PPG), after going 3-5 ATS at home in 2016. I'm taking the points and making the Eagles an 8* play. |
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10-12-17 | Wild v. Blackhawks -132 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -132 | 19 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Wild are in search of their first win to the new season tonight in Chicago, after opening 0-1-1. With Zach Parise (undisclosed) and Mikael Granlund (groin) sidelined, head coach Bruce Boudreau admitted he'll likely shuffle the deck for this visit to the Central Division rival Blackhawks. Chicago has opened 3-0-1, while erupting for 21 goals in the team's four contests (10-1 home win over the Penguins last Thursday accounted for almost half of those goals). Minnesota: The Wild have traditionally been one of the stingiest teams in the league but Minnesota has allowed eight goals through two games (nine, if one counts the 5-4 shootout loss). Chris Stewart has scored in both contests this season and added an assist to catch the eye of Boudreau. "On the goals, he's done a great job. He's got a very good offensive IQ, he always has. That's never been Chris Stewart's problem," Boudreau said. "We're hoping his start continues, it's a good start for him, it certainly is something that's added that you're not really counting on but he is scoring the goals." Forward Marcus Foligno has been elevated from the third to the top line in lieu of injuries to Parise and Granlund. Devan Dubnyk is coming off a strong season and will be in net, as Minnesota hasn't played since Saturday. He is 99-55-13 with a 2.18 goals-against average and .924 save percentage with Minnesota. In his 20 career games against the Blackhawks, he is 10-7-0 with a 3.06 GAA and a .909 save percentage. Chicago: The Blackhawks are coming off a 3-1 road win at Montreal on Tuesday, with Jonathan Toews setting up Brandon Saad's team-leading fifth tally. Saad's seven points are just one better than both Patrick Kane and Richard Panik. Goalie Corey Crawford turned aside 41 of 42 shots against the Canadiens on Tuesday, improving to 3-0-0 while keeping his goals-against average at 1.00 (his save percentage is a robust .971!) Crawford won three of four meetings with Minnesota last season and boasts a 10-8-2 career mark versus the Wild (2.48 GAA and a .920 save percentage) and is expected to be in goal for this one. The pick: At the moment, the Blackhawks are playing way better than the Wild plus Crawford (1.00 GAA & .971 SP) is playing way better than Dubynk (4.12 GAA & .871 SP). What's not to like about the Blackhawks? Make Chicago a 10* play. |
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10-12-17 | Cubs v. Nationals OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 18 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nationals have yet to reach the NLCS, getting eliminated in the NLDS in each of their previous three postseason appearances (2012, 2014 and 2016) since moving to Washington, twice losing in a deciding Game 5 (2012 & 2016). Here again in 2017, with a little help from the weather, the Washington Nationals have forced a winner-take-all matchup Game 5 against the defending champion Chicago Cubs. Game 4 was scheduled for Tuesday with Chicago owning a 2-1 lead but rain forced the game to be rescheduled until Wednesday. That gave the Nats the option of replacing Game 4 starter Tanner Roark, with Stephen Strasburg. Starsburg initially said he was "under the weather," leaving the Nats to say Roark would go in the rescheduled game but Starsburg "got better" or ":had a change of heart," and took the mound. He was brilliant, allowing just three hits over seven scoreless innings to lead the Washington to a 5-0 win over the Cubs (Taylor's grand slam in the 8th, 'shut the door!'). Strasburg had 12 Ks and became just the third pitcher ever to register double-digit strikeouts twice is a single playoff series, joining Hall of Famers Bob Gibson and Sandy Koufax. Game 5 is now set for 8:05 ET tonight in Washington. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks takes the mound for Chicago (was the Cubs' Game 1 starter) and Dusty Baker has decided to go with Gio Gonzalez, Washington's Game 2 starter (on full rest, after the rain out). Hendricks out-dueled Strasburg in Game 1, allowing two hits and three walks while registering six strikeouts over seven scoreless innings, as the Cubs won 3-0. This marks the third straight start in a series clincher for the 27-year-old Hendricks. He started Game 6 of last year’s NLCS against the Dodgers and Game 7 of the World Series versus Cleveland (Cubs won both times). He is 2-1 with a 1.98 ERA in eight postseason starts. Baker has passed on Roark in this Game 5, who has not started since Sep. 27 and gave up eight runs in 5 2/3 innings over his last two regular-season appearances (one start). Gonzalez allowed three runs on three hits over five innings in Game 2 (also six Ks and two walks), as the Nationals got him off the hook with a five-run 8th-inning rally. The pick: Gonzalez was a career-best 21-8 (2.89 ERA) for the Nats back in 2012 but over the next four seasons, would go just 43-37. His 4.57 ERA in 2016 was his highest since his first full season in the majors (2009 with the A's). However, he had an excellent bounce-back season in 2017, going 15-9 with a 2.96 ERA. Then again, he hasn't pitched more than five innings over his last five starts, including his Game 2 start in this series. In that span, he's allowed 19 ERs on 25 hits over 26 1/3 innings for a 6.49 ERA. It's hard to trust the Nats in any deciding game situation and Gonzalez doesn't exactly come in "on a roll." The feeling here is that these two very talented lineups have underachieved all series. In the case of the Nats, they'vs scored nine of their 12 runs in the series in the eighth inning, on a a two-run HR, a three-run HR and a grand slam. As for the Cubs, they've only scored eight runs in the series's four games, somehow managing to extend it to five games. The bet here says, both lineups 'catch fire' in Game 5. Make the Over a 10* play. |
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10-12-17 | Texas State v. UL-Lafayette UNDER 58 | Top | 7-24 | Win | 100 | 69 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sun Belt Conference takes 'center stage' for a second straight night, as the Texas State Bobcats go on the road to face the Louisiana-Lafayette Ragin’ Cajuns in a Thursday night matchup on ESPNU (South Alabama played at Troy Wednesday night on ESPN2). Texas State is 1-5 (0-2 in SBC play) and ULL is 2-3 (1-1 in SBC play). Texas State is off 3-9 and 2-10 season, so a 1-5 start is no surprise. ULL went 6-6 in the 2016 regular season, then lost 28-21 in the New Orleans Bowl. BTW, ULL has played in the New Orleans Bowl five times since 2011, winning four in a row before last year's loss (ULL went 4-8 in 2015). Texas State: The Bobcats won their 2017 opener 20-11 over Houston Baptist but have lost five in a row since, failing to cover the last three. Texas State lost 45-27 to visiting UL-Monroe in its last game, allowing 589 overall yards, including 433 through the air. The Bobcats scored 20 points in the first quarter but just seven points the rest of the way. The team's offense has been awful, scoring only 14.5 PPG (125th) on 300.7 YPG (124th). The defense has collapsed the last three games, allowing 44, 45 and 45 points. It comes in allowing 33.7 PPG on the season (106th), on 410.8 YPG (87th). Louisiana-Lafayette: The Ragin’ Cajuns won 21-16 as a six point road underdog last Saturday at Idaho, the team's first ATS win of the season. ULL averages 37.0 PPG (29th) on 418.2 YPG (60th) but the team's defense is a mess, allowing 46.2 PPG (129th) on 506.6 YPG (125th). These defense numbers are this bad despite the fact that ULL held Idaho to just 16 points on 279 yards last Saturday. The pick: As I continue point out, I've consistently won in 2017 by going under high totals. That's not exactly the case here but like with Idaho, the Texas State offense (averaging only 14.5 PPG) is one ULL's defense can handle. I'm making the Under a 10* play. |
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10-11-17 | Islanders v. Ducks OVER 5.5 | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -100 | 21 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Anaheim Ducks finished with a Western Conference-best 29-8-4 record at home last season. However, the Ducks have dropped two straight at Honda Center, including a 2-0 loss to Calgary on Monday, which had lost an NHL-record 25 consecutive games in Anaheim. The 1-1-1 Ducks will now conclude a season-opening four-game homestand against the 1-1-1 New York Islanders, who come in having won the last four meetings between the two clubs. The Islanders managed to snag a point in a shootout loss to St. Louis on Monday, forging a tie with a pair of goals in the final seven minutes of regulation. New York has won its last three visits to the Honda Center, including a 14-round shootout in November that set a record for the longest in franchise history. NY Islanders: Captain John Tavares scored twice versus Buffalo on Saturday and is one goal shy of tying Bob Bourne (538) for seventh place on the team's all-time list. He can be a free agent after this season but GM Garth Snow told the media that he felt "excellent" about the current state of negotiations. “I’ve said it all along, we drafted John at 18, and we think the world of him,” Snow said, per the New York Post. “We want him to retire an Islander. He’s a first-class person and a first-class player.” The team heads west feeling much better about goalie Thomas Greiss, who was pulled from a season-opening loss to the Columbus Blue Jackets but finished with 33 saves against the Blues in Monday's 3-2 shootout loss. However, Halak is expected to be in net, tonight Anaheim: The Ducks' lineup has been riddled by injuries but center Ryan Getzlaf made his season debut in Monday's 2-0 loss to Calgary. He was given 22 minutes, 14 seconds of ice time, giving him a chance to play his way back into shape. However, Getzlaf's return was tempered by another injury, this one to forward Ondrej Kase (upper body). The pick: The Ducks were given the luxury of opening the new season with four straight home games and six out of seven at The Pond," overall. The team hasn't taken advantage of that so far but considering the team's 29-8-4 record at home last season, doesn't that figure to change? I expect Anaheim to play well but Gibson has not been sharp so far in goal (3.05 GAA), so the play is an 8* on the Over. |
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10-11-17 | Bruins -129 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -129 | 21 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colorado Avalanche finished the 2016-17 season with the fewest points (48) of any NHL team in the salary cap era but have to be happy about their 2-1-0 start to the new season. That includes a 4-0 win over the Bruins on Monday and tonight at home, the Avalanche will have a chance to complete a two-game season sweep of the 1-1-0 Boston Bruins in the back end of a home-and-home series at the Pepsi Center. The Bruins opened their season with a 4-3 home win over the Nashville Predators, who lost in the Stanley Cup Finals to Pittsburgh last season, but then had 'nothing' in Monday's 4-0 loss to the Avs. Boston: The Bruins will again be without two-way center Patrice Bergeron (lower body), who has now been sidelined for the first three games of the season for the second straight year. "I don't know if it 'got worse' is the right way to put it. It just hasn't, I guess, responded well to treatment is probably a better way to put it," head coach Bruce Cassidy told reporters on Tuesday. Fellow forward David Backes (diverticulitis) will also sit out on Wednesday. The Bruins' lack of depth at the forward position prompted some roster shuffling. They called up Danton Heinen from Providence and signed journeyman Ryan White to a professional tryout agreement. Both players are with the team on this trip. Colorado: The Avalanche may be 2-1-0 but the etam hasn't lacked for some drama. Center Matt Duchene was expected to be traded in the off-season and reported for training camp a month ago and said he was doing so only to honor his contract and teammates. He has a goal and three overall points so far bu former Colorado star and Hockey Hall of Fame member Peter Forsberg told Swedish TV on Saturday the Avalanche should bench Duchene and trade him. In other "news," the Avs were hoping that Nail Yakupov could give their ailing offense a lift and signed the former No. 1 overall pick to a one-year deal in the of-season. He had three goals and nine points in 40 games for St. Louis but had a two-goal performance versus Boston to pull even with Duchene for the team lead in points (three). Goalie Semyon Varlamov is looking no worse for wear after undergoing double hip surgery in January, as he turned aside 37 shots in a season-opening win over the New York Rangers and all 29 he faced in Monday's 2-0 victory over Boston. "It's a good start for me. I didn't play for a long time," said the 29-year-old Russian, who boasts a 1.00 goals-against average and .971 save percentage. The pick: Neither club is faring well on the power play, as the Bruins are just 1-for-9 with the man advantage while the Avalanche are 1-for-12. Colorado has allowed six goals this season but none at even strength! Boston played reasonably well on the road last season (21-14-6) and I'm not yet 'buying in' to Colorado being all that improved, after just three games. Let's not forget that the Avs finished the 2016-17 season last in the league in goals per game (2.01), goals allowed (3.37), power-play efficiency (12.6) and second to last on the penalty kill (77.3). Make Boston a 10* play. |
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10-11-17 | South Alabama +17 v. Troy | Top | 19-8 | Win | 100 | 46 h 59 m | Show |
The set-up: The Troy Trojans are coming off 10-3 season (including a 28-23 bowl win over Ohio) with 14 returning starters, including eight on offense. Troy lost its season opener 24-13 at Boise State but has since won four in a row, including the team's "historic 24-21 win at LSU on Sep. 30 as about a three-TD underdog (that win ended LSU's 49-game home winning streak against non-conference opponents). Troy did not play last Saturday and now hosts South Alabama in this Wednesday game. The Jags also went 'bowling' last year, although the team was just 6-6, before getting routed in the Arizona Bowl 45-21 by Air Force to finish 6-7. Preseason predictions had the Jags possibly getting back to another bowl game but the Jags are just 1-4, with the team's lone win coming 45-0 over Alabama A&M. South Alabama: Like Troy, South Alabama was off the first Saturday in October and last played at La. Tech on Sep. 30, losing 34-16. USA only trailed 17-16 after three quarters but the Bulldogs took control with a 17-0 fourth quarter run to finish the game. South Alabama was out-gained 479-333 and gave the ball away twice while committing seven penalties. The offense has not done much, averaging 22.6 PPG (200th) on 329.0 YPG (113th). The good news is that the Jags' starting QB, Cole Garvin, returned from an injury vs. La Tech,. He was just 21 of 45 for 235 yards with one TD and two INTs but he now has a game under his belt plus has had the first 10 days of October to practice. RB Xavier Johnson gives his some 'cover,' as he's run for 345 yards on 6.1 YPC (4 TDs). The defense is hardly much of a 'stop unit' though, allowing 30.8 PPG (91st) on 421.2 YPG (86th). Troy: The Trojans need to 'come down' from that LSU shocker and the good news is, the team has had a 10-day break since that Sep. 30 win. The Trojans are looking to win for a fifth straight time and enter having gone 7-1 SU at home since the start of the 2016 season. QB Brandon Silvers had 22 TD passes last season in leading Troy to an average of 33.7 PPG but after five games of the 2017 season, he has just two TD passes and while the Trojans are averaging 431.2 YPG (49th), they are scoring just 24.0 PPG (99th). Defense has been the key, as Troy is allowing only 18.6 PPG (24th) on 344.6 YPG (32nd) The pick: Sure, Troy has had some extra time off to "take in" its thrilling upset of LSU in "Death Valley" but while I noted earlier that Troy comes in on a 7-1 SU run at home since the beginning of the 2016 season, I'll add here that the Trojans are just 2-6 ATS in those games. In fact, while Troy checks in at 14-4 SU since the start of 2016, it is also a money-burning 4-10 ATS when favored in that span, including 0-3 so far in 2017. Make that 0-4 in 2017 as a favorite! Take the points and make South Alabama a 10* play. |
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10-11-17 | Yankees v. Indians -178 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -178 | 19 h 30 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cleveland Indians had a 22-game winning streak while finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games. They then took a two-games-to-none lead over the Yankees in their ALDS matchup. However, the Yankees returned to the Bronx and won 1-0 and 7-3 and now, all of a sudden, the Indians are in a "winner-take-all" Game 5 to advance to an ALCS matchup with the Houston Astros. The Cleveland Indians can't lose three in a row, roght? After all, they haven't lost three games in a row since July 30-Aug. 1 but then, it had been almost seven weeks between back-to-back setbacks before they dropped Games 3 and 4 of the ALDS to these pesky Yankees. The pitching matchup: Game 5 will be a "re-hook" of Game 5, as CC Sabathia squares off against Corey Kluber in a battle of former Cy Young Award winners. Sabathia began his career with the Indians (first 7 1/2 years) and many argued that he was pulled too early in Game 2. Girardi lifted Sabathia after 77 pitches and 5 1/3 innings,when he had retired 12 of the last 13 batters he faced. He left with a five-run lead before watching the bullpen let him down. Sabathia is 9-5 with a 4.47 ERA in 20 career postseason appearances and 4-3 with 3.63 ERA in 12 career appearances against the Indians (teams are 5-7). Most feel as if Kluber is the AL favorite to win another Cy Young in 2017 but he sure didn't "look the part" in Game 2. Kluber suffered through his worst start of the season in Game 2, serving up six runs on seven hits (including two HRs) in just 2 2/3 innings. However, he was let off the hook when Cleveland stormed back for a 9-8 win in 13 innings. Despite that horrific outing, Kluber is 5-1 with a 2.90 ERA in eight career starts vs. New York (team is 6-2). The pick: Both managers have faced criticism this series and the one who walks away with a loss in Game 5, will likely be 'roasted' (Girardi could lose his job0. Much was made of Fraancona using Bauer on three days' rest in Game 4 but Francona's plan all along was to have his ace, on normal rest, e avaailable bfor a possible Game 5 (the case here!). "It's hard to imagine giving it to somebody better," Francona told reporters of starting Kluber. "We tried to set up for a five-game series with plans, contingency plans, and pretty much everything is -- there's been a lot of things happen, and we go to Game 5, we're at home, and we have Kluber. It will be -- we're looking forward to it." The home team has won all four games so far and nothing changes here. Make the Indians an 8* play. |
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10-10-17 | Flyers v. Predators -146 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nashville Predators didn't make much noise in the regular season last year but then opened the playoffs with an improbable four-game sweep of the Chicago Blackhawks, the Western Conference points leader. Nashville then beat St. Louis and Anaheim in six-games series, before giving the Pittsburgh Penguins all they wanted in the Stanley Cup finals. That series was tied two-all, before the defending champs made it back-to-back Stanley Cup tiles with 6-0 and 2-0 wins to close out the Preds. Nashville opened the current season with visits to Boston and Pittsburgh and things have not gone well, with the Predators getting outscored 8-3 and never owning a lead. Meanwhile, the Flyers missed the playoffs last season but have opened 2-1 this season, despite beginning the year with four straight road games. Philly's road trip ends here, with this visit to Nashville. Nashville: The Predators 4-0 loss to the Penguins on Saturday night, in a Stanley Cup Finals rematch, occurred against a Pittsburgh team that had allowed 15 goals in losses to the St. Louis Blues and Chicago Blackhawks earlier last week. That's not a good sign. Then again, as center Ryan Johansen said, "It's only two games, but we're behind the eight ball. We need to win two games to get to .500 now. We're very comfortable playing at home, and we need to go home and take care of business." The Predators lost James Neal to Vegas in the expansion draft and captain Mike Fisher to retirement. However, Nashville did add Nick Bonino, winner of consecutive Stanley Cups with Pittsburgh, to fortify the center position before Fisher retired. Winger Scott Hartnell was also signed from the Columbus Blue Jackets to add depth scoring and another veteran presence in the locker room. Otherwise, the Predators are sticking with the young core that got them to Game 6 of the Finals last spring. The pick: Before tonight's home opener against the Flyers, the Predators will do something they have never done, that is hoist a banner to the rafters of Bridgestone Arena emblematic of a Western Conference championship. After an 0-2 start, I say make Nashville an 8* play in this one. After all, Nashville went 9-2 on home ice during last year's playoffs. |
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10-09-17 | Dodgers v. Diamondbacks +1.5 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -160 | 15 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The D'backs destroyed the Dodgers in six straight meetings near the end of the season, when LA was in a deep funk. However, LA's bats have toyed with Arizona's pitching in taking a commanding 2-0 lead in this NLDS. LA won Game 1, 9-5 and Game 2, 8-5. That's 17 runs scored on 24 hits. The Dodgers have looked every bit the part of the team that led the majors with 104 regular-season victories. The D'backs have 'limped' home but they can take heart in the fact that they are 53-29 at Chase Field in 2017 (including an 11-8 wild card win over Colorado), outscoring opponents 5.71-to-4.32 RPG. The pitching matchup: Yu Darvish (10-12 & 3.86 ERA) gets the ball for the Dodgers and will be opposed by Zack Greinke (17-7 & 2.89 ERA). Darvish did finish the season 2-0 in his last three outings, allowing just one earned run in 19 1/3 innings during the stretch (0.47 ERA). However, he's not had a good season and that's an understatement. Combine his starts with Texas and LA and his moneyline mark of minus-$1302 is the third-worst among all starters in 2017. Throw in the fact that he has a 5.40 ERA while losing both his career postseason starts and one wonders just why LA manager Dave Roberts said in a press conference, "To have that front-line guy to win a playoff game certainly that's why you acquire a guy like Yu." It's true that Greinke has been ineffective over his last three starts, giving up 14 runs in 11 2/3 innings (including lasting just 3 2/3 innings in the wild-card contest against the Colorado Rockies). That said, how does one ignore that the D'backs went 22-10 in all of Greinke's starts this regular season, giving him a moneyline mark of plus-$971 (8th-best among all starters). The pick: Greinke is 3-3 with a 3.92 ERA in 10 career postseason outings with two of the wins coming during his six postseason starts for the Dodgers. "We've built around him. He set the pace for the entire pitching staff all year long," Arizona manager Lovullo told reporters. "I know he loves challenges like this. Nobody prepares better. Nobody is going to work to make sure that on that day when he takes the mound that he's going to be comfortable, confident and ready." Sure, Greinke was terrible last Wednesday but he's on full rest and the D'backs are 16-3 in his Chase Field starts this season. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Arizona an 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Vikings -3 v. Bears | Top | 20-17 | Push | 0 | 31 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: It's a MNF game featuring two teams from what was once the NFL's "Black and Blue Division," now the NFC North. The 2-2 Minnesota Vikings will visit Chicago's Soldier Field on ESPN to take on the 1-3 Bears. The Vikings are hoping that Sam Bradford is ready to return as the team's starting QB for this one (after sustaining a knee injury in Minnesota's season opener), while the Bears will hand the starting QB job over to Mitchell Trubisky, the second overall pick of the 2017 draft out of North Carolina. He'll make his NFL debut after off-season acquisition Mike Glennon committed four turnovers in Chicago's 35-14 loss to Green Bay on Sep. 28. Minnesota: The Vikings' two wins this season have come at home (29-19 over the Saints and 34-17 over the Bucs), while Minnesota has lost 26-9 at Pittsburgh and last week at home to the Lions, 14-7. Keenum has completed 61.0% for 755 yards with three TDs and zero INTs (94.4 QB rating) but he's not Bradford. The former Heisman-winner and No. 1 overall draft pick set an NFL single-season record by completing 71.6% of his passes in 2016 and against New Orlean in Week 1, connected on 27 of 32 (that's 84.0%) for 346 yards with three TDs and did not throw a pick (143.0 QB rating). The Vikings not only fell to Detroit last week but also lost rookie RB Dalvin Cook (Florida State) to a torn left ACL that will cost him the remainder of the season. Cook had rushed for 354 yards in three-plus contests and will be replaced by Latavius Murray (signed a three-year, $15 million deal in the off-season). He will inherit the bulk of the workload but note he's coming off ankle surgery during the off-season that still has him feeling less than 100 percent (has just 38 yards rushing this season). Defensively, the Vikings rank T-8th in points allowed (19.0 per) and 12th in total yards (318.0 YPG). Chicago: It didn't take long for Chicago to sour on Glennon (anyone know what the team liked about him in the first place?) and Trubisky will have an opportunity to showcase his abilities in front of millions of viewers, as he makes his debut on MNF. "Ifeel like I'm ready," Trubisky said to reporters this week. "I'm excited. I'm just going to take it day by day and prepare as hard as I possibly can for every single look and situation we can get on Monday. I'm going to be dependent on my teammates a lot. My job is to get the ball to the playmakers and just be a distributor and manage the offense and do the best I can." He doesn't figure to get too much help from Chiacgo's average at-best running game plus while the Chicago defense has allowed 306.2 YPG (9th), the Bears have allowed 26.0 PPG, which ranks 27th. The pick: The return of Bradford would be HUGE news for Minnesota (he's listed as questionable) but the Vikings will also be buoyed by the fact that WR Michael Floyd has also been reinstated after a four-game suspension for violating the league's substance-abuse policy. Floyd joins a talented group of WRs that includes Stefon Diggs (22 catches / 17.8 YPC and Adam Thielen (24 catches / 14.9 YPC). Whether it's Bradford (hopefully) or Kennum, I'll take the Vikings against Trubuiskty, who had just one season of note at North Carolina. Trubisky had his moments in the preseason but playing against disinterested starters and backups is quite different than playing a division rival on MNF in one's first-ever NFL start. Make Minnesota a 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Capitals v. Lightning UNDER 5.5 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -107 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: The Caps and their star, captain Alex Ovechkin, have been best-known for great regular seasons followed by early playoff exits. That was the case again last season but the Caps, particularly Ovechkin, have sure stormed out of the gate with purpose, so far. Washington has opened with 5-4 and 6-1 wins, with Ovechkin. possibly responding o his lowest-scoring full season since 2010-11, followed up a hat trick in the season opener with four more goals in Saturday's win. The Lightning won Friday night at home 5-3 over the Panthers in their season-opener but then lost the next night in Miami, 5-4. Washington: Evgeny Kuznetsov has been big part of Ovechkin's scoring barrage with seven assists. Fellow linemate Jakub Vrana has set up three goals. Washington has just one power play goal (out of 10) but has been perfect on the penalty kill, keeping opponents scoreless on nine attempts with the man advantage. Capitals goalie Braden Holtby has a 2.40 goals-against average and is averaging 33 saves per game in opening 2-0.. Tampa Bay: The Lightning have nine goal in two games, as Brayden Point is off to a fast start for Tampa Bay after a strong finish to the 2016-17 season. He has five points, while captain Steven Stamkos has contributed three assists in his return from knee surgery. Tampa Bay is carrying eight defensemen to open the season, which means two are inactive each night. So far, the combos haven't worked well, as the Lightning have allowed 84 shots on net. The team's best player in the first two games has been Andrei Vasilevskiy, who turned aside 76 of the 84 shots he faced and gave his struggling team a chance to win both contests. The pick: Ovechkin is a terrific player but he can't (won't) keep up his current pace. The two teams have played two games each with the four finals averaging 8.25 GPG. That won't continue either, as Holtby is a "big-time" goalie and as noted earlier, Vasilevskiy has played extremely well despite little help from his blue-liners. Make the Under a 10* play. |
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10-09-17 | Nationals v. Cubs +1.5 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: The Nats have been playoff buts in recent years and were on the verge of falling into an 0-2 hole against the Cubs in Game 2 at Nationals Park. Chicago had a 3-1 lead into the bottom of the 8th, with Washington having score just one run on four hits through the first 16 innings of the series. However, Bryce Harper's two-run HR tied the game and Ryan Zimmerman's three-run blast powered a five-run explosion, as the Cubs won 6-3. The series now resumes late this afternoon at Wrigley Field tied at one apiece. "We've got to win two more games," Cubs first baseman Anthony Rizzo told reporters. "Doesn't matter how we do it. Doesn't matter the scenario. It starts Monday. With this group, with this experience, nothing's really going to faze us. We've given up way bigger home runs than that before." The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (16-6 & 2.51 ERA) will get the ball for Washington and Jose Quintana (11-11 & 4.15 ERA) for Chicago. The Nationals are unsure just what to expect from reigning National League Cy Young Award winner. Scherzer hasn't pitched since Sep. 30 when he left his final regular-season start with what he referred to at the time as a "small tweak" in his right hamstring. He was scheduled to pitch Game 1 against the Cubs but was pushed back to Game 3 to provide him extra time to build more strength and endurance in his hamstring. He was pitching well before his injury, going 2-0 with a 1.65 ERA in his last three regular-season starts. Scherzer is 3-1 with a 2.92 ERA in six career starts against the Cubs, althoiugh his teams are only 3-3. Quintana has been an excellent pickup by the Cubs (traded away by the cross-town White Sox), going 7-3 with a 3.74 ERA in 14 starts for the Cubs. The Cubs have his last six starts with Quintana posting a 2.82 ERA over that span. Quintana has never faced the Nationals. The pick: With Scherzer's health a question mark, I'm not sure why the Nats should be favored at Wrigley over the defending champs. Especially when one considers that the Cubs have gone 10-4 in Quintana's 14 starts , including 7-1 here at Wrigley. What's more, Scherzer is win-less in his last five postseason starts. The Cubs’ pitching staff has completely dominated the Nats' lineup, except for that one inning. Take the 1 1/2 runs and make Chicago a 8* play. |
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10-09-17 | Astros v. Red Sox UNDER 10.5 | Top | 5-4 | Win | 100 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
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10-08-17 | Chiefs v. Texans UNDER 47 | Top | 42-34 | Loss | -110 | 142 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: Through the season's first four weeks, the Kansas City Chiefs stand alone as the NFL's lone unbeaten team at 4-0. The Chiefs are also a perfect 4-0 ATS after their 'miracle' finish last Monday night against the Redskins. The Chiefs are back on in primetime again in Week 5, this time in Houston against the 2-2 Texans for a SNF game at NRG Stadium on NBC. Houston's 19-12 win last season over KC ended a three-game losing streak in the series, including a 33-0 playoff rout in January 2016. Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has played superbly for the Chiefs, who have scored at least 21 second-half points in three of their four victories. He's been stuck with the label of "game manager" for years but has eight TD passes without an interceptions (121 attempts) plus leads the NFL in both QB rating (124.2) and completing percentage (76.0%). Nothing "game-manager-like" in those numbers! Smith is not alone in being a major contributor to KC's offense in 2017. Rookie RB Kareem Hunt (Toledo) has rushed for more than 100 yards three times and has 502 yards on the season, averaging 7.4 YPC with four TDs. Throw in 13 catches with two more TDs and he's been the league's best back 25 percent of the way through NFL 2017. TE Travis Kelce and WR Tyreek Hill each have a team-high 21 catches, with two TD receptions apiece. Kansas City's offense ranks 2nd in both points scored (30.5 per) and total yards (405,2 per). The defense allows 359.5 YPG to rank 26th but only allows 19.2 PPG, which ranks 10th. Houston: Bill O'Brien may never live down his decision to open the season with Tom Savage at QB over Deshaun Watson but now that he's "seen the light," the Texans are only looking forward. The Texans have been a different team since handing the keys of the offense to Watson, who accounted for five TDs in last week's 57-14 demolition of visiting Tennessee. Watson guided Clemson to back-to-back national championship showdowns with Alabama, shredding the Tide's defense in both games, while claiming the title in last January's rematch. Watson threw for 283 yards and four TDs plus ran for another score last Sunday, earning AFC Offensive Player of the Week honors. DeAndre Hopkins is Watson's favorite target with 31 receptions but fellow WR Will Fuller returned from injury to make a splashy debut against the Titans with a pair of TDs among his four catches. RB Lamar Miller scored his first two TDs of the season last week, piling up 131 yards from scrimmage, while Watson's running ability and rookie RB D'Onta Foreman provide solid complements (Texans average 139.8 YPG rushing to rank fifth). Houston's defense led the NFL in total yards allowed in 2016 (301.3 YPG) and while the Texans are allowing fewer yards in 2017 (291.5 YPG), that figure ranks only fifth-best. The pick: Yes, the Smith and Hunt duo plus the play of Deshaun Watson make this look like an attractive over play. However, these are two outstanding defensive teams (KC's YPG stats so far, not withstanding), so the play here is an 8* on the Under. |
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10-08-17 | Canadiens v. Rangers OVER 5 | Top | 0-2 | Loss | -136 | 9 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off lopsided losses on Saturday, as Montreal lost 6-1 in Washington and New York lost 8-5 in Toronto. The 1-1 Canadiens conclude their season-opening three-game road trip against the New York Rangers here in Madison Square Garden, with the 0-2 Rangers still looking for their first win of the 2017-18 season (lost 4-2 at home Thursday night to Colorado, by far the NHL's worst team last season).
Montreal: Carey Price lasted only 20 minutes last night in Washington, as he surrendered four goals on 14 shots, including three to Alex Ovechkin who finished with four (back-to-back hat tricks to open the season), in Montreal's 6-1 loss. The Canadiens will need to regroup quickly, as Montreal plays six of its first eight games on the road."We had some breakdowns," Canadiens head coach Claude Julien told the Montreal Gazette. "When you spot a team three goals early like that, it's pretty hard to come back in this league. They had a good start and we weren't ready for that. So that's on us. Once that game is 4-0, it's pretty hard the rest of the way. But it was important for us to try and find our game. I thought we were much better in the second period, although the damage was done."
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10-08-17 | Seahawks +2.5 v. Rams | Top | 16-10 | Win | 100 | 138 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The Seattle Seahawks needed a breakout game (win) last Sunday night and the sad-sack Colts played the perfect foil, as the Seattle romped to a 46-18 victory. That evened the team's record at 2-2 and now in Week 5, the Seahawks will travel to Los Angeles to take on one of 2017's surprise NFL teams, the Rams. The Rams were 4-12 in 2016, the team's first season back in LA (had moved to St Louis for the start of the season), finishing as the NFL's most-impotent offense (14.0 PPG on 262.7 YPG). However, QB Jared Goff (0-7 as a starter as a rookie), has led a turnaround that has the Rams 3-1 and looking for a third straight win in this contest with Seattle. Seattle:The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game against the Titans, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs and had 295 yards plus two more TDs against the Colts. The Seattle offense which has scored just 21 points in Weeks 1 and 2, has scored 73 points the last two games. Maybe more importantly, after allowing Tennessee to roll up 420 yards in Week 3, Seattle's defense looked more like the one we've seen in recent years, allowing the Colts to gain only 237 total yards. LA Rams: Jared Goff has played like a No. 1 overall pick through four games, completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,072 yards with seven TDs and just one interception in 117 attempts (QB rating of 112.2). RB Todd Gurley has 362 rushing yards with four TDs plus leads the team with 20 catches. Goff also has developing 'go-to' WRs in Sammy Watkins (14 catches) and Robert Woods (12). After averaging woeful totals on offense in 2016 (see above), the 2017 Rams are the NFL's top-scoring team (35.5 PPG) on 386.5 YPG (5th). However, the defense adds little 'cover,' ranking 28th in points allowed (26.2 per) on 2367.8 YPG (ranks 27th). The pick: Seattle's offense found its groove in the second half against the Titans and 'poured it on' in the second half of last Sunday night's against the Colts. The Seahawks rolled up a season-high 194 rushing yards last Sunday night, while QB Wilson had the most accurate game of his career in connecting on 21 of 26 passes. The defense isn't as elite as its been in the past but it was much better in Week 4. Sure, the Rams' offense will be a tougher test but Seattle's offense shouldn't have much trouble against a Rams defense which ranks among the worst in the NFL. Let's not forget that Seattle has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons, while the Rams haven't had a winning season since 2003! Make Seattle a 10* play. |
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10-08-17 | Astros v. Red Sox +127 | Top | 3-10 | Win | 127 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: The Minnesota Twins lost the AL wild card game last Tuesday to the Yankees, losing a 13th straight postseason game. That ties the MLB record held by the Boston Red Sox (from 1986 through 1995). Yes, the Red Sox have won three World Series titles since then but Boston has not won a postseason contest since the clinching game of the 2013 World Series and are now in danger of being swept out of the ALDS for the second straight October (Terry Francona's Indians did the 'honors' in 2016!). The Red Sox attempt to climb out of a 2-0 hole against the Astros but Houston is playing with the utmost confidence at the moment. The Astros got solid starting efforts from Verlander and Keuchel plus the offense has scored eight run sin each of the first two games, banging out 12 hits in each contest, as well. The pitching matchup: Brad Peacock (13-2 & 3.00 ERA) gets the Game 3 start for Houston and will be opposed by Doug Fister (5-9 & 4.88 ERA). Peacock began the season in the bullpen and on the season, Houston was not quite as impressive as his personal won-loss record in all his starts (15-6, plus-$424). However, he earned this start by holding his last seven opponents to two or fewer ERs (he was 3-1 but the team just 4-3). He did not allow more than five hits in any of his five September starts, winning his last three. Fister is an interesting choice as the Game 3 starter, with Boston facing elimination. He was chosen over Eduardo Rodriguez and reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello despite going 0-2 with a 9.18 ERA over his last four starts. He was signed by the Red Sox as a free agent in June and has hardly impressed in his 18 appearances, including 15 starts. He's had limited action against Houston, going 1-1 with a 3.44 ERA in three career starts (teams are 2-1). The pick: It was just 10 days ago that Houston Astros pitcher Brad Peacock went to the Fenway Park mound and defeated Boston 12-2 in the opening game of the regular season-ending four-game series against the Red Sox. However, be advised that in earning that win by allowing two runs in five innings, it 'improved' Peacock's career mark vs. Boston to 1-2 in four starts (team is 1-3) and his ERA to 9.01 (you read that right!). Maybe the reason Fister is getting the ball in this elimination game is due to him owning a 2.60 ERA in nine career postseason games (eight starts)? No sweep here. Make Boston a 10* play. |
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10-08-17 | Bills v. Bengals OVER 38.5 | Top | 16-20 | Loss | -110 | 134 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: The Buffalo Bills last made the playoffs back in 1999, the longest postseason drought of any NFL team. However, they visit Cincinnati at Paul Brown Stadium on Sunday with a surprising 3-1 record. The Bengals opened 0-3 in 2017 but were able to win their first game of the season last Sunday 31-7, although it came over the hapless (helpless?) Browns. Buffalo: New head coach Sean McDermott is riding high but is also savvy enough not to take the 1-3 Bengals lightly."This is a team that has been in the playoffs the last 'X' amount of years," McDermott told reporters. ”Anyone who looks at a record at this point in the season is making a huge mistake. This is a good football team." Buffalo's Week 3 home win over Denver was nice but its 23-17 in Atlanta over the previously unbeaten Falcons got everyone's attention. The Bills led the NFL in rushing last year at 164.4 YPG but this year Buffalo has struggled, averaging only 112.8 YPG (26th). McCoy had 110 yards in Week 1 but over the last three games, which included impressive wins over the Broncos and Falcons, he has only 106 yards, while averaging just 2.3 YPC! I'm not sure what to make of QB Tyrod Taylor but the bottom line is, he leads an offense averaging just 18.2 PPG (23rd) on 284.2 YPG (29th). Buffalo's defense has been the key so far, allowing a league-low 13.5 PPG on 306.0 YPG (8th). Cincinnati: Bengal fans were calling for Andy Dalton to be benched after Cincy opened with back-to-back home losses to the Ravens and Texans, while failing to reach the end zone (had scored just nine points). However, after throwing four INTs in Week 1, Dalton hasn't had one since, plus he's completed 80.8 percent of his throws the last two games, passing for 498 yards and six TDs! The Bengals took the Packers to OT at Greem Bay (lost 27-24) but then won 31-7 at Cleveland. Dalton is not getting much help from his running game, as rookie Joe Mixon has been a major disappointment (2.6 YPC) and the ground game averages only 88.8 YPG on 3.3 YPC. Like Buffalo, the Cincy defense has been excellent, ranking third in both points scored (16.8 PPG) and 273.2 YPG. The pick: Does a matchup between two top defenses spell an under? Let me first say that I'm not so sure Cincy's defense is all that good. The Bengals have faced Joe Flacco (on the downside of his career), Deshaun Watson (in his first NFL start) and DeShone Kizer, who is not an NFL QB. When facing Rodgers, he lit them up for 313 yards and three TDs. Taylor is no Rodgers but I look for the Bills to score more than expected. As for the Bengals, since Bill Lazor took over as offensive coordinator these last two weeks, Andy Dalton has looked more comfortable, with the Bengals averaging 27.5 PPG (Dalton has six TDS without an INT). This low number means the 8* play is on the Over. |
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10-08-17 | Panthers +3 v. Lions | Top | 27-24 | Win | 100 | 134 h 18 m | Show |
The set-up: Ford Field in Detroit is the site of a Week 5 game between a pair of 3-1 teams. The Panthers went from a 15-1 regular season and a Super Bowl loss to the Broncos in 2015, to a 6-10 record in 2016, which left them in last-place in the NFC South. The Detroit Lions were 9-7 last year (lost in the wild card round), the team's third postseason appearance in the last six years. That said, expectations were pretty low entering 2017, so the team's 3-1 start is a surprise, especially since its lone loss (30-26 to the Falcons), was to say the least, highly controversial. Carolina: The Panthers won 33-30 last Sunday at New England, with QB Cam Newton reminding all of his MVP-like talent. He completed 22 of 29 for 316 yards and three TDs plus ran for 44 yards and another score. Jonathan Stewart had his best game of 2017 so far, gaining 68 yards on 14 carries. However, Newton's positive mojo has been interrupted Detroit: QB Matthew Stafford has shown a newfound maturity (signed a 'monster' deal prior to the season), throwing seven TD passes with only one interception in 138 attempts. RB Ameer Abdullah appears headed for a breakout season, after rushing for a career-high 94 yards and a TD in last week’s 14-7 triumph at Minnesota.The third-year RB from Nebraska had 597 yards as a rookie but played in just two games last season. He has 257 yards after four games in 2017, putting him on pace for a 1,00-yard season. The Lions are just a half-yard shy of being the only undefeated team in the NFC. Detroit lost its last home game when, upon an officials' review, Golden Tate was ruled just short of the goal line in the closing seconds against Atlanta. The game ended on that play, because a 10-second runoff was required after the review because the Lions didn't have any timeouts left. The pick: Noting all of the above, I'm still skeptical about this Detroit team. The Lions have been extremely opportunistic on both sides of the ball, ranking 10th in scoring offense (24.8 PPG) and fourth in scoring defense (17.5 PPG) despite being 24th in total offense (just 299.8 YPG) and 15th in total defense. Their plus-9 turnover margin has played a huge role in that and the question I have is, can they keep it up? Throw in that PK Matt Prater has made an NFL-record four FGs of 55 yards or longer this season, after just four games. It's called "regression to the mean." Make Carolina an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Oilers v. Canucks +1.5 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: Connor McDavid was made the league's highest-paid player in the off-season (signed eight-year, $100 million contract) and wasted no time looking to prove he's worth every penny. He had seven shots on goal in the Oilers' season-opener Wednesday vs. Calgary, scoring all of the team's goals in a 3-0 win. Goalie Cam Talbot 'pitched' a 26-save shutout. The Oilers play their first road game of the season tonight in Vancouver, as the Canucks play their season-opener. Vancouver was 30-43-9 (7th in the Pacific Division), finishing with the second-fewest goals in the league. The Canucks produced just 11 goals in a season-ending eight-game losing streak. Edmonton: The Oilers are a 'sexy' pick to win the West Conference this coming season and we saw nothing Wednesday to dull those expectations. Cam Talbot tied for the league lead with 42 wins last season and looked sharp in his 19th career shutout. "I would start the season with a win any day of the week -- the shutout is just an added bonus," Talbot said. "To play the way we did tonight defensively and to start out with a shutout is pretty special." Edmonton is predominantly a young team but the Oilers are setting their sights on a Stanley Cup after rebuilding largely through four first-overall draft picks that resulted from six mediocre seasons. Vancouver: The Canucks opened last season with four straight victories (all at home) but it was all downhill from there. They followed that hot start by losing their next nine, en route to a last-place finish in the Pacific Division. Henrik and Daniel Sedin have enjoyed long and illustrious careers with Vancouver but the fact that the 37-year-old twins comprise the team's top line speaks volumes of the challenges awaiting the Canucks and new coach Travis Green. Bo Horvat was the only player to score 20 goals and joined Daniel Sedin as the only ones to eclipse 50 points. The Canucks will be looking for Markus Granlund and Sven Baertschi to continue their rise after notching career highs of 19 and 18 goals, respectively. Veterans Thomas Vanek and Sam Gagner were brought in to bolster the attack while the hope is that Loui Eriksson can rebound after dipping from 30 goals in 2015-16 to 11 last season. There is talent on the blue line, headed by Alexander Edler and youngsters Ben Hutton and Troy Stecher, but neither Jakob Markstrom nor Anders Nilsson has been proven to be a full-time starter in net. The pick: OK, Edmonton is the far superior team but let's not forget, Vancouver opened last season with four straight wins. Deja vu here in October 2017? Take the 1 1/2 goals and make the Canucks a 6* play. |
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10-07-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 5-8 | Loss | -115 | 12 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Clayton Kershaw allowed four HRs (fortunately, they were all solo shots) but led by Justin Turner's five RBI, the Dodgers won Game 1 of their NLDS matchup with the D'backs, 9-5. It marked Kershaw's first-ever home playoff win (isn't that something?) and while it was hardly a gem, LA will take it. Turner's three-run, first-inning HR led to a 4-0 first-inning lead, one which LA extended to 7-1. Turner went 3-for-4 to raise his career postseason average to .383 in 60 at-bats.The Diamondbacks belted four solo HRs but they had just two at-bats with runners in scoring position.
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10-07-17 | Michigan State +13 v. Michigan | Top | 14-10 | Win | 100 | 117 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Michigan State was a huge flop in 2016, opening No. 12 in the AP's preseason poll but wound up finishing with a 3-9 record. However, the Spartans are 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) to open 2017, having lost to only current No. 21, Notre Dame. Jim Harbaugh has led Michigan to back-to-back 10-3 seasons and his Wolverines opened No. 11 in this season's AP preseason poll. Now, four games into the 2017 season, Michigan is 4-0 (1-0 Big Ten) and ranked No. 7. Wilton Speight and John O'Korn battled for the starting QB job in the spring, with Speight winning. However, O'Korn came off the bench to replace Speight last week vs. Purdue and was impressive (18-of-26 for 270 yards and a TD). Speight will miss "multiple weeks," according to Harbaugh, so it's now OKorn's job. Michigan State: The Spartans are 3-1 SU & ATS so far but all games have come at home. They look for a "statement victory" when they take to the road for the first time this season on Saturday. QB Brian Lewerke is completing 63.2 percent of his passes for 963 yards with eight TDs and just two interceptions. Lewerke also leads the way with 248 rushing yards (2 TDs), as MSU averages 187.5 YPG (52nd). Defensively, Michigan State is allowing just 18.0 PPG (21st) on 248.3 YPG (4th). Michigan: The Wolverines average a modest 223.0 YPG passing (72nd), regardless of who has been under center (mostly Speight). The ground game is averaging 184.2 YPG (53rd), led by Ty Isaac (356 yards and just one TD). Defense is Michigan's strong suit again in 2017, despite the Wolves' losing 10 of 11 starters from last year's unit. No matter, Michigan is allowing 13.5 PPG (8th) on 203.2 YPG, which is best in the nation! The pick: This is the 110th meeting (has been contested each year since 1945!) with Michigan leading 69-35-5. However, aren't we talking pointspreads here? If so, you may be interested that Michigan State is on a current nine-game ATS winning streak in its series with “big brother” Michigan. Expect a defensive battle, so taking all these points is the way to go. Make Michigan State an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Wild v. Hurricanes UNDER 5.5 | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: The Carolina Hurricanes went 36-31-15 last season (seventh in the Metropolitan Division). missing the Stanley Cup Playoffs for an eighth consecutive year (last postseason was back in 2009!). The 2017-18 season began Wednesday but Carolina plays for the first time this season tonight, when it hosts the Minnesota Wild, who opened with a 4-2 loss at Detroit on Thursday. The Wild were 49-25-8 last season with their 106 points second in the West to only the Blackhawks' 109. However, Minnesota was bumped from the playoffs in its first series, 4-1 by St. Louis. Minnesota: The Wild had two, first-period scores disallowed by goaltender interference and while they tied the game with two third-period scores, gave up two goals in 23 seconds to fall 4-2. Zach Parise missed Minnesota's loss on Thursday with a back injury. It's the 64th game he has sat out since signing a 13-year, $98 million contract prior to the 2012-13 season. He won't play Saturday, either. “You want to go in without nursing something,” Parise told the Pioneer Press. “I want to go in and not have that stuff be at the top of my mind - just go in and relax and play - and that’s what I’m shooting toward.” The Wild were one of five teams to finish in the top-10 on the power play and short-handed last season but were 0-for-4 with a man advantage and killed 3-of-5 penalties on Thursday. Carolina: Not sure we should expect Carolina to end its eight-year playoff drought this season, as the team begins what marks the 20th anniversary season of the Hurricanes franchise relocation to North Carolina from Hartford, Ct. However, acquisitions such as Justin Williams and goaltender Scott Darling could make a difference. Williams won his first Stanley Cup with the Hurricanes in 2006 before hoisting two more with Los Angeles, told reporters. "You always want to be a part of that and my role on this team will be an important one." Darling was brought aboard to be the No. 1 goalie as Cam Ward is expected to serve as the backup. Carolina will also be counting on 22-year-old center Elias Lindholm, who increased his assist total in each of the last three seasons and recorded a team-most 34 in 2016-17. The Hurricanes also boast a strong top-four defensive corps with Justin Faulk, Noah Hanifin, Brett Pesce and Jaccob Slavin, providing hope for a club that was challenged offensively with only two players scoring more than 17 goals in 2016-17. The pick: Carolina was one of the NHL's lowest-scoring teams last season and Minneosta one of its best defensive teams. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Maryland v. Ohio State OVER 58.5 | Top | 14-62 | Win | 100 | 114 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Ohio State (4-1, 2-0 in Big Ten) will host Maryland (3-1, 1-0 Big Ten) at Ohio Stadium in Columbus, Ohio on Saturday. Urban Meyer leads his No. 10 Buckeyes against one of his former assistants for the second week in row, this time around it's D.J. Durkin. This is Durkin's second season at Maryland and the Terps opened the season with a win a shocking 51-41 win Texas (+18) and have also added a 31-24 road win at Minnesota last Saturday (as a two-TD dog), to open Big Ten play. Maryland doesn't appear to be as over-matched as the 6-7 team that was clobbered 62-3 by Ohio State last year. Ohio State is trying to put its 31-16 home loss to Oklahoma behind them, in an effort to climb back into the CFP discussion. Dominating wins over Army, UNLV and Rutgers don't hurt the Buckeyes' chances but also don't help all that much, either. Maryland: The Terrapins rebounded from a surprising home loss to Central Florida by winning 31-24 at Minnesota last week to open its Big Ten slate. However, let's note that UCF is 3-0 and currently ranked 25th in the latest AP poll. Sophomore Max Bortenschlager completed 18-of-28 passes for 154 yards and two TDs plus also ran for a score against Minnesota in his first start after the Terrapins’ top two quarterbacks, Kasim Hill and Tyrrell Pigrome, went down with season-ending knee injuries. RB Ty Johnson has 411 rushing yards on 8.9 YPC with four TDs, leading a ground game that averages 233.5 YPG (24th) on 5.7 YPC with 12 scores. Defensively, Maryland is allowing 30.0 PPG (92nd) and will be severely tested by an Ohio State offense which has scored 148 points over the last three games since the loss to Oklahoma! Ohio State: J.T. Barrett 'laid an egg' against Oklahoma but has comlalted 71.2 percent for 765 yards with 10 TDs (no INTs over 73 attempts) , while adding 125 rushing yards and another TD in OSU's three-game winning streak. Freshman RB Dobbins has 573 yards (7.6 YPC) and three TDs on the season, leading a ground game accounting for 241.0 YPG (20th). The defense is holding opponents to 160.0 YPG (16) on 335.6 YPG (34th). The pick: Barrett has been outstanding the last three games and on the season, has 13 TD passes spread around over nine different players. Freshman J.K. Dobbins has been terrific and now Mike Weber, who ran for 1069 yards last year on 6.0 YP is back, running for three scores against Rutgers after struggling with hamstring issues. The Ohio State defense has allowed fewer than 100 passing yards in each of the last three games, after averaging 403 in the team's first two. With all due respect to Bortenschlager, he is the team's third-team QB. I'll note that Ohio State is just 6-12 its last 18 laying more than 21 points but Meyer's Ohio State teams have a 17-1 SU record in October since 2012. He's shown no mercy against ex-assistant Chris Ash, beating Rutgers 56-0 and 54-0. He took Durkin's Maryland team 'to the woodshed' last year (62-3). You may want to "think twice" about laying the big price but OSU has averaged a notch under 50 PPG its last three and will 'cover' most of this over/under number itself. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Notre Dame v. North Carolina +16 | Top | 33-10 | Loss | -110 | 113 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: No. 21 Notre Dame will bring its 4-1 record to Chapel Hill to take on the 1-4 Tar Heels. The Fighting Irish's lone loss came 20-19 against Georgia, which is now 5-0 and ranked 5th in the latest AP poll. The Irish are a complete football team, which is hardly the case with the Tar Heels. North Carolina has allowed at least 27 points in all four of its losses and 23 in its lone win, beating ODU 53-23. However, ODU's only wins have come against FCS Albany and UMass, a team which owns the longest active losing streak among FBS teams (nine). Against Va Tech, ODU lost 38-0! Notre Dame: I stated that Notre Dame is a complete football team but that's when QB Barndon Wimbush and RB Josh Adams are healthy. Wimbush is a true multi-threat, passing for 783 yards with six TDs and two INTs, while rushing for 402 yards (5.9 YPC) with eight TDs, Adams lead the team with 658 rush yards (9.0 YPC) and four TDs. Notre Dame is averaging a whopping 301.4 YPG on the ground (7th), a big reason the team has averaged 41.4 PPG (14th). The defense has been solid, allowing just 18.2 PPG (23rd). North Carolina: QB Chazz Surratt has thrown for 988 yards with five TDs and two interceptions, while Jordan Brown is the top rusher for North Carolina with 269 yards and three TDs on 5.0 YPC. The defense allowed 403yards rushing (6.1 YPC) against Ga. Tech (lost 33-7) and now must contend with ND's ground 'assault!' That hardly seems likely, as the Tar Heels rank 113th in allowing 221.8 YPG on the ground. The pick: QB Surratt is a freshman who beat out transfer Brandon Harris for the job of replacing No. 2 overall NFL pick Mitchell Trubisky and he's just one of the many new personnel changes on offense for North Carolina. Notre Dame has been dominant outside of its tough one-point loss to Georgia but here, the numbers just seems unseasonably (or is that unreasonably?) high, especially if Winbush and Adams are limited. Take the huge home dog and make North Carolina a 10* play. |
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10-07-17 | Avalanche v. Devils -147 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2017-18 NHL season got underway on Wednesday but the New Jersey Devils take to the ice for the first time this afternoon in a home game against the Colorado Avalanche. The Devils finished 28-40-14 (8th in the Metropolitan Division last season), while the Avalanche finished with a league-worst 48 points last season (21 fewer than any other team). Last season was a total 'wash' for Colorado, as the Avalanche finished last in the league in goals per game (2.01), goals allowed (3.37), power-play efficiency (12.6) and second to last on the penalty kill (77.3%). However, surprised the New York Rangers 4-2 at Madison Square Garden on Thursday, ending a 12-game road losing streak. Colorado: Veteran Semyon Varlamov was limited to 23 starts last season before undergoing hip surgery, but he showed what a difference maker he can be with a 37-save performance against the Rangers. "That's what we're hoping he can be," Colorado head coach Jared Bednar said. "We don't want to get into a game where we're relying on him every night, but we're going to need him on some of those nights." Matt Duchene, who went from 30 goals in 2015-16 to 18 last season, got off to a fast start by scoring once and adding an assist. New Jersey: After its poor season, New Jersey made quite a few changes to its roster during the off-season. The Devils acquired 24-goal scorer Marcus Johansson from the Capitals to help bolster an attack that scored a conference-low 183 goals in 2016-17. They also signed free agent forwards Drew Stafford, Jimmy Hayes and Brian Boyle, though Boyle is on the injured list while being treated for chronic myeloid leukemia. New Jersey infused some youth to its defense corps by acquiring 22-year-old Mirco Mueller from San Jose and signing college free agent Will Butcher, the reigning Hobey Baker Award winner. However, the most exciting new addition is Nico Hischier, whom the Devils selected first overall in June's draft. The Swiss-born center had a solid preseason, scoring a goal in his first outing and finishing the exhibition games with a team-high four goals and seven points. "It is a dream come true," Hischier told reporters about making the opening-night roster. "As a young player, you dream about this moment to play your first game. Finally, it comes up and I am really excited, really happy." The Devils will need a bounce-back year from Cory Schneider, who spiraled to a 2.82 goals-against average and .908 save percentage last season, well off his marks in his previous three years with the club. The pick: Colorado finished 9-30-2 on the road last season, winning back-to-back games away from home only once the entire year. No reason to expect Colorado to open 2-0 on the road here, in new Jersey's season-opener. Make the Devils an 8* play. |
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10-07-17 | Pittsburgh v. Syracuse -4.5 | Top | 24-27 | Loss | -110 | 110 h 1 m | Show |
The set-up: A pair of 2-3 schools (both 0-1 in the ACC) will meet early Saturday afternoon at the Carrier Dome, when Pittsburgh visits Syracuse. The Panthers own wins over Youngstown State (FCS) and Rice (1-4), while losing to ranked teams Penn State (current No. 4) and Oklahoma State (current No. 15), as well as 3-1 Georgia Tech. Syracuse owns wins over Central Connecticut State and Central Michigan in its first three games (lost to MTSU in between), then lost its last two to LSU and NC State. Pittsburgh: The Panthers are off a 42-10 win over Rice (snapping a three-game losing streak), as QB Max Browne was 28-of-32 for 410 yards (just the ninth 400-yard passing game in school history) and four TDs and zero TDs. It was the best performance of his career. Browne gets very little help from Pitt's running game, which averages only 114.4 YPG (110th). Despite last week';s 42 points, Pitt is averaging a modest 24.4 PPG, which ranks 98th. The same is true for Pitt's D, as despite holding Rice to just 10 points, the Panthers are allowing 31.6 PPG (101st) on 441.2 YPG (105th). Syracuse: The Orange lost 33-25 to the Wolfpack at NC State in their last game but QB Eric Dungey went 30-of-47 for 385 yards, one score and a pick, while also leading the with 16 carries for 44 yards and two TDs rushing. Dungey has averaged 287.4 YPG through the air (Syracuse ranks 15th in passing YPG)) with seven TDs, along with 277 rushing yards and another seven TDs. WR Ervin Philips was named ACC Receiver of the Week after breaking school and conference records with 17 receptions for a career-high 188 yards against the Wolfpack. Despite a reasonably taxing early schedule, the Syracuse defense is allowing 24.4 PPG (55th) on 357.6 YPG (50th). The pick: These schools have played every year since 1955 and the Panthers have won 13 of the last 15. However, Syracuse is the better team here in 2017 and won't forget that Pittsburgh won a 76-61 shootout against them in the regular-season finale for both teams last season, a contest which was the highest-scoring game in FBS history. Syracuse gets the win and cover this time around (10*). |
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10-06-17 | Diamondbacks v. Dodgers UNDER 7 | Top | 5-9 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Dodgers owned MLB's best record (104-58) and won the NL West by 11 games over the Arizona D'backs. However, the D'backs beat the Dodgers in the two teams' final six meetings, winning the regular-season series 11-8. The Dodgers have been off since Sunday, while the D'backs had to get past the Rockies in an NL wild card game Wednesday, which they did by winning 11-8. Despite taking a 6-0 lead over the Rockies, Arizona manager Torey Lovullo not only had to pull starter Zach Greinke, who lasted just 3 2/3 innings while giving up four runs, he was forced to use Robbie Ray in Wednesday's game as well. That means Ray, who was 15-5 (2.89 ERA) on the season, is not able to start Game 1 of the NLDS. The pitching: Instead, Taijuan Walker (9-9 & 3.49 ERA) will take the mound for the D'backs in Game 1, opposite the Dodgers' Clayton Kershaw (18-4 & 2.31 ERA). The D'backs went 14-14 (minus-$47) in Walker's 2017 starts but the good news is, his ERA was 2.92 on the road, compared to 4.18 at home. More good news comes in the form of him having gone 2-0 with a 3.24 ERA in three starts against the Dodgers (D'backs were 3-0). "I think the biggest thing is controlling your emotions and taking it one pitch at a time," Walker said at a press conference. "I think you can't go out there and let the adrenaline really get to you. You have to take a deep breath every pitch and really focus on each pitch." Kershaw missed time with a bad back but again was wonderful when on the mound. LA was 23-4 in his starts, giving him MLB's second-best moneyline mark (plus-$1235), despite being stuck with enormous prices in almost every outing. Kershaw dominated the Diamondbacks in two starts this season by going 2-0 with a 0.59 ERA and holding batters to a .118 average. He's seen planet of the D'backs in his career (26 starts), going 14-8 with a 2.55 ERA and 1.12 WHIP (LA is ). The pick: Kershaw is arguably the greatest pitcher of his era but postseason success has eluded him. He enters the 2017 postseason just 4-7 with a 4.55 ERA in 18 career appearances (14 starts) in the postseason. Will it be different here in 2017? Are the Dodgers ready to win a World Series for the first time since 1988? The journey begins tonight and I'll play Under, as I think Walker will surprise plus nothing seems to come easy for Kershaw in the postseason. I expect him to bring his "A game" but can one really lay this kind of a price? Make the Under a 10*. |
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10-06-17 | Boise State v. BYU OVER 44 | Top | 24-7 | Loss | -110 | 96 h 56 m | Show |
The set-up: Friday night football on ESPN will feature the 1-4 BYU Cougars hosting the 2-2 Boise State Broncos. The Cougars are desperately trying to save their season, as it sure looks as if BYU's streak of 12 consecutive bowl appearances is in real danger. Boise State has been to 15 straight bowls but with road games here at BYU and and next weekend at San Diego State (currently 5-0 and ranked No. 19 in the latest AP poll), it hardly looks like "smooth sailing" for the Broncos, either. Boise State: The Broncos fell 42-23 at home in their last game (Sep. 22), making it Boise State’s worst home loss since 2001. QB Brett Rypien was 24 of 42 for 285 yards without a TD pass and one INT vs. the Cavs. He's had a injury-marred season and is not even Boise's clear-cut No. 1 QB. To emphasize the Broncos' woes, I'll note that the team's "other QB," Montell Cozart, is the team's leading rusher with 191 yards. Boise State is averaging just 118.0 YPG on the ground (104th). The Broncos are averaging 29.8 PPG and it's been quite awhile since the team hasn't averaged at least 30 PPG (I quickly looked back eight years and all seasonal averages were 30-plus points). The defense comes in allowing 29.0 PPG (8656th). BYU: Speaking of a lack of scoring, it's hard to fathom seeing a BYU team averaging only 12.6 PPG (126th). The Cougars can't pass (152.6 YPG ranks 118th) or run (104.0 YPG also ranks 118th), leaving them 129th overall in total yards at 256.6 YPG! The Cougars opened with an unimpressive 20-6 home win over Portland State and enter this game on a four-game slide. BYU led 21-7 a minute and a half into the second quarter against Utah State in its last game but then allowed 33 unanswered points, mostly due to seven turnovers. Ouch. Koy Detmer Jr. stepped in for injured QB Beau Hoge (who was already playing for No. 1 QB Mangum) and things went from bad to worse. Detmer took over and went seven of 20 with no scores and three interceptions of his own. Hoge is listed as questionable coming into this game. The BYU defense has played as well as one could expect, considering the fact that the team's offense gives them no 'cover.' The Cougars are allowing 26.4 PPG (72nd) on 381.6 YPG (68th). The pick: With BYU and Boise State's recent (and not-so recent) history, who could have imagined them playing a game against each other and having the over/under number open 45? My sinning totals this year have often been playing "under" and on "inflated numbers" but here, it's just the opposite. Current 2017 form keeps this number low but it's TOO low. Both schools didn't play last weekend so make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-06-17 | Panthers v. Lightning -175 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
Florida: Injuries had a lot to do with the Panthers going from 2015-16 Atlantic Division champions to sixth place one year later. Florida opens the new season with five of its top eight scorers gone, including future Hall of Famer Jaromir Jagr. However, first-year head coach Bob Boughner said he hopes the return to health of several key players such as defenseman Aaron Ekblad can lead to a revival: “The players are buying into the systems,’’ the coach told reporters. “And when they see results, it’s an easier sell for us. Ekblad, who was hampered by concussions last season and finished with 21 points and a minus-23 rating in 68 games, after averaging 37.5 points and a plus-15 in his first two NHL campaigns. Center Aleksander Barkov was second on the team with 52 points despite missing 20 games in 2016-17 while wing Jonathan Huberdeau (26 points) was limited to 31 contests by injury and center Nick Bjugstad played in only 54 games. Top scorer Vincent Trocheck (23 goals, 54 points) returns to center one of the top two lines and the Panthers are solid in goal with Roberto Luongo and James Reimer. Luongo goes tonight. Tampa Bay: Lightning captain Steven Stamkos makes his first regular-season appearance in almost 11 months, tonight. The two-time Rocket Richard Trophy winner as the NHL's top goal scorer put up 20 points in 16-plus games before suffering a knee injury Nov. 15 at Detroit. He is determined to lead the Lightning back to the playoffs after they came up one point short last season. Stamkos is joined by a healthy Ryan Callahan, who missed all but 18 games last season because of a hip injury, and Norris Trophy finalist Victor Hedman with an experienced group that fell victim to a slow start in 2016-17 after two long playoff runs. Nikita Kucherov led the team with 40 goals and 85 points in Stamkos' absence, with defenseman Victor Hedman leading the team with 56 assists and continuing to establish himself as one of the league's top defenders. The team's No. 3 scorer, Jonathan Drouin, was traded away, but the rest of the scoring nucleus remains intact. Tampa Bay added two veterans from winning programs, signing 38-year-old winger Chris Kunitz from the Pittsburgh Penguins and 33-year-old defenseman Dan Girardi from the New York Rangers. Andrei Vasilevskiy opens the season as a No. 1 goalie for the first time, taking over that role after Ben Bishop was traded away last season. The pick: These Florida state rivals meet on back-to-back nights to open the campaign, first in Tampa tonight and then Saturday night in Miami. Can it be as easy as taking the Lightning here and then the Panthers tomorrow? I'll 'bite,' making Tampa Bay a 10* play. Check back on Saturday for an update! |
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10-06-17 | Cubs v. Nationals -161 | Top | 3-0 | Loss | -161 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The Cubs ended a 108-year drought with last year's World Series win and 2017's regular season was no "walk in the park." However, in the end, the 92-70 Cubs won the NL Central by six games and are right where they want to be, back in the postseason and playing for a second straight title. Chicago will be trying to become the first team to win back-to-back titles since the New York Yankees won three straight from 1998-2000. The Cubs' NLDS opponent will be the 97-65 Washington Nationals, who won the NL East by a whopping 20 games (largest margin of any division-winner). Now no franchise compares to Chicago's 108-year drought but the Nats are trying to get over the hump after being knocked out in the NLDS three times in the past five seasons. Adding insult to injury, the franchise has not won a postseason series since 1981, when it played in Montreal. The pitching matchup: Kyle Hendricks (7-5 & 3.03 ERA) was the Cubs' Game 7 starter for the 2016 World Series and he now gets the Game 1 start here, as the Cubs begin their quest to repeat in 2017. He'll be opposed by Washington's Stephen Strasburg (15-4 & 2.52 ERA), who has been a 'beast' in his 10 starts after the All-Star break, going 6-1 with a 0.86 ERA and 76 strikeouts over 62 2/3 innings (Nats were 9-1). Hendricks struggled early in the season, but similarly to Strasburg, he's been excellent since the All Star break. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of his 13 starts over that stretch. However, despite a 2.19 ERA, the Cubs are 6-7 in his starts during that span. Hendricks gave up three runs over seven innings in a loss to Washington on Aug. 4, leaving him 2-2 witha 2.67 ERA over five career starts against the Nats (Cubs are 3-2). Strasburg's post-break run has been remarkable, as he's allowed more than one run only twice over the 10 starts in that span. He hasn’t lost since August 19. However, Strasburg has made only one postseason start, in the 2014 NLDS against San Francisco, allowing two runs (one earned) over five innings in a tough-luck loss. The pick: Strasburg may only be 1-1 in five career starts vs. the Cubs but he owns a 2.08 ERA, allowing the Nats to win four of those five starts. The Nationals have won the National East four times -- in 2012, 2015, 2016 and this year -- but they have never advanced past the first round of the playoffs. Washington was beat by the St. Louis Cardinals at home in Game 5 in 2012, on the road by the San Francisco Giants in 2014 in a four-game series, and at home in Game 5 last year by the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Nationals took four of the seven meetings with the Cubs this season and really need a confidence-building Game 1 win, here! My bet says they get it. Make Washington an 8* play. |
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10-05-17 | Flyers v. Kings -163 | Top | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 15 h 41 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Flyers went 39-33-10 last season and their 88 points were not enough to make the postseason. Philly opens this new season having missed the postseason three times in the last five years plus fell in their opening round series in each of the two seasons in which the team did make the playoffs. Philly began the 2017-18 season last night in San Jose but despite squandering 2-0 and 3-2 leads, left with a 5-3 victory. Wayne Simmonds registered his second career hat trick while Jakub Voracek and defenseman Shayne Gostisbehere notched three assists apiece. The Flyers continue their opening four-game road trip tonight in LA against the Kings. Los Angeles won its second Stanley Cup in three years in 2014 but has since sandwiched a pair of non-playoff seasons around one in which it made a first-round exit. The kings were 39-35-8 (5th in Pacific) last season, missing the postseason. Philadelphia: The Flyers finished last season on a 6-2-2 run but they still missed the final postseason berth by seven points. The most significant moves of their off-season were the trade of center Brayden Schenn to St. Louis and the acquisition of free agent goaltender Brian Elliott. Elliott made 32 saves in his debut last night, earning the win. General manager Ron Hextall placed an emphasis on youth on his early-season roster, with five rookies making the squad, including Nolan Patrick, the second overall pick in the 2017 draft. However, just only three were in the lineup against the Sharks. All eyes were on Nolan Patrick, who registered three shots and blocked one while going 5-4 on face-offs in 13 1/2 minutes of action. Los Angeles: The Kings stumbled to an 86-point finish, missing the postseason for the second time in three seasons. The disappointing finish led to the dismissal of general manager Dean Lombardi and coach Darryl Sutter the day after its season ended. Jeff Carter led the club last season with 32 goals, marking the fourth time he reached the 30-goal plateau in his career. However, the Kings had only one other player hit the 20-goal mark, as Tanner Pearson scored a career-high 24 in his second full season. The team will need more offense this season plus the Kings are counting on a full season from former Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Quick, as the goalie was limited to 17 games last campaign due to a groin injury suffered in the 2016-17 opener. The pick: The Fylers were not much on the road last year (14-22-5), while despite an overall disappointing season, the Kings were 23-16-2 on home ice. Michal Neuvirth could get the start in goal for the Flyers after Elliott made 32 saves in his Philly debut last night, so I'll back Quick and the Kings, who open their home season with the Flyers, for the second consecutive time. LA lost 4-2 last year but turns that around here. Make the Kings a 10* play. |
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10-05-17 | Patriots -5 v. Bucs | Top | 19-14 | Push | 0 | 70 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: It's Thursday Night football on CBS to open NFL Week 5 of the 2017 season. The 2-2 New England Patriots will visit Raymond James Stadium to take on the 2-1 Tampa Bay Buccaneers. There was talk prior to the season that the Pats just could go 16-0 in 2017 but not only are the Pats just 2-2, they are a last-second Brady TD pass against Houston in Week 3 from being 1-3! Tampa Bay saw its Week 1 games vs. the Dolphins postponed to later in the season due to Hurricane Irma and enters 2-1 after edging the Giants 25-23 last Sunday at home, on 34-yard FG with no time left on the clock. There is not a lot of history between the two clubs, with the Pats leading the all-time series 6-2. New England: Tom Brady may be 40 years-old but he is NOT the problem for New England. He's completing 66.5 percent of his passes for 1,399 yards (Pats rank 1st with 328.3 YPG through the air) with 10 TDs and not a single interception in 155 attempts (QB rating is 116.6). New featured runner Mike Gillislee is sitting on 57 carries for 194 yards with four TDs but hasn't topped 70 yards in a game (Pats average 95.5 rushing YPG to rank 20th). TE Rob Gronkowski is New England’s top receiver with 20 receptions for 318 yards and two TDs. New England is averaging 32.2 PPG (2nd), so again, that's not the problem. The issue is, the Patriots are off to their worst defensive start under coach Bill Belichick, having allowed 128 points and 1,827 total yards, an average of 32.0 PPG (31st) and 456.8 yards YPG (32nd). According to STATS, since the 1970 NFL merger, it's the most points allowed in the first four games by a team that had the best scoring defense in the previous season (Pats allowed just 15.6 PPG in 2016). Tampa Bay: Expectations were high for the Bucs entering 2017.QB Jameis Winston came up big in Sunday's 25-23 home win against the Giants, going 5-for-5 on the final drive that led to the game-winning FG as time expired. He was 22-for-38 with 332 yards and three touchdowns against the Giants but in the team's 34-17 loss in Week 3 at Minnesota, he threw three INTs and fumbled twice (did not lose one, though). Still, consistency is Winston's problem (safe to say he's no Brady). Tampa Bay has had no running game, averaging 84.7 YPG to rank 26th but the good news is, Doug Martin returns after a four-game suspension for violating the NFL's policy on performance-enhancing drugs (he sat out the final week of 2016). Martin's had a pair of 1,000-yard rushing seasons in his previous five years. The defense ranks 30th in yards allowed (394.3 per game) but is a middle-of-the-pack 16th in points allowed (21.3 PPG). The pick: The Bucs need to run the ball better and while Martin is back with the team, it's unclear how much of a role he will play in his season debut. I noted Tampa Bay's overall defensive stats above but will add that most of the damage against the Bucs has come through the air, as they rank 31st in allowing 315.7 YPG. How can that be good news against Brady, who was 9-0 on Thursday nights until New England lost to Kansas City in its season opener? The Pats were a perfect 8-0 SU on the road in 2016 and won their lone road game of 2017 against New Orleans, 36-20. Like in this contest, the Pats were coming off a loss vs. the Saints and after taking down New Orleans, the Pats improved to an impressive 43-6 SU off a loss! How does one buck that trend? With a victory on Thursday night, Brady (185-54) will tie Brett Favre (186-112) and Peyton Manning (186-79) for the most regular-season wins in NFL history. Expect Brady to chalk up another 'notch' on his ever-growing NFL legacy. Lay the points and make the Pats a 10* play. |
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10-05-17 | Louisville -4 v. NC State | Top | 25-39 | Loss | -110 | 69 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Louisville and NC State are both 4-1 as the two ACC schools meet Thursday night on ESPN at Carter-Finley Stadium in Raleigh, North Carolina. Louisville comes in ranked 14th and NC State just entered the AP top-25 for the first time this past Sunday, at No. 24. Louisville's loss came to current No. 2 Clemson, while NC State lost to South Carolina of the SEC. Both schools are in the ACC's Atlantic Division, which Clemson leads at 3-0. Since Louisville lost to Clemson, it is 1-1 in league play and can ill-afford another league loss to NC State, which comes into this game at 2-0. The series history reveals that Louisiille has won six of the seven all-time meetings, with the Wolfpack's lone win coming in the 2011 Belk Bowl, before Louisville joined the ACC. Louisville: The Cardinals feature reigning Heisman winner Lamar Jackson and while it's highly-unlikely that Jackson will repeat, he's having an excellent season. He's completing 64.0% for an average of 327.2 YPG passing with 13 TDs and just three INTs. He's Louisville's leading rusher as well, rushing for 437 yards (6.1 YPC) and five TDs, for a unit averaging 210.2 YPG on the ground (33rd). The Card are putting up 40.0 PPG (23rd) and allowing 24.6 PPG (51st), although they are doing better in yards allowed, ranking 27th at 317.6 YPG. NC State: The Wolfpack opened up the year with a home loss to South Carolina but has rattled off four straight wins over Marshall, Furman, Florida State and Syracuse. Three of the wins are no big deal and the FSU win's value is TBD! QB Ryan Finley has completed 71.9% for an average of 280.6 YPG through the air, throwing nine TD passes and not a single interception in 192 pass attempts. The running game is average at-best (168.2 YPG ranks 64th), as is the team's defense, which allows 23.4 PPG (52nd) on 370.4 YPG (60th). It's been "hard times" at Louisville as of late with the revelations surounding the basketball program but that's unlikely to faze the football team. As noted above, NC State's wins have hardly been impressive (jury is still out on the FSU win) and just how did the Wolfpack lose at home to South Carolina, if it's really a top-25 team? Louisville head coach Bobby Petrino is 14-0 against North Carolina-based schools and Lamar Jackson just 'destroyed' NC State's defense in last year's meeting, accounting for 431 yards of total offense and four TDs in a 54-13 win. Is this game "too much" for NC State? Maybe so, as the last time NC State won a game between two ranked teams in Raleigh came all the way back in 1992, against Wake Forest (not exactly a FB power!). Make Louisville a 10* play. |
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10-05-17 | Yankees v. Indians -130 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Cleveland's strong finish (highlighted by the team's 22-game winning streak) was enough to allow the Indians to edge past the Houston Astros (102-to-101 wins) for the American League's best overall record. That means Cleveland opens its quest to return to the World Series with a five-game ALDS matchup with the wild card-winning NY Yankees. The first two games will be in Cleveland, beginning with tonight's contest at 7:05 ET.Terry Francona made liberal use of his bullpen weapons while guiding the Cleveland Indians to the World Series last season (especially Andrew Miller) and Joe Girardi took a page out of Francona's playbook in Tuesday's wild card win over the Twins. Starter Luis Severino was replaced with one out and three runs in in the first inning but Girardi got 26 outs (13 Ks!) from his bullpen, as Chad Green, David Robertson, Tommy Kahnle and Aroldis Chapman proved to be up to the task as the Yankees pulled out an 8-4 victory. Francona rode Andrew Miller hard in the 2016 postseason and won't be afraid to do so again, though the Indians might have an even better team in 2017 after finishing the regular season with 33 wins in their last 37 games! The pitching matchup: Sonny Gray (10-12 & 3.55 ERA) gets the nod in Game 1 for New York, opposed by Cleveland's Trevor Bauer (17-9 & 4.19 ERA). Big things were expected of Gray when the Yankees acquired him in a trade deadline deal with Oakland but he went a modest 4-7 with a 3.72 ERA in 11 starts. He struggled with the 'long ball' in September, surrendering nine HRs in 35 1/3 innings. He lost 5-1 at Cleveland in his New York debut on Aug. 3 (allowed four runs but just two were earned) plus was ripped for six runs on six hits over 4 2/3 innings in his final regular-season outing on Saturday. Gray is 0-1 in two career postseason starts despite a 2.08 ERA. Bauer more than did his part during the Indians' sprint to the finish. He was 10-1 with a 2.42 ERA over his last 14 games (13 starts / Indians were 10-3) and allowed two runs in 13 innings over his final two starts. Two of those outings came against New York on Aug. 4 and Aug. 30, and he breezed to wins in both by scattering two runs over 13 innings while striking out 11. Still, that only brings his LT mark against the Yankees to 3-4 with 4.60 ERA in eight starts (Indians are 4-4). The pick: Bauer gets the start over Cy Young candidate Corey Kluber, so that Kluber can come back on regular rest in a potential Game 5 or Game 1 of the ALCS. Yes. Bauer went 0-2 with a 5.27 ERA in five games (four starts) during the 2016 postseason but he had a damaged pitching hand. It's been a breakout season for him here in 2017 and he was 2-0 with a 1.38 ERA. Sonny Gray has not lived up to expectations for the Yanks since the trade and in three starts vs. the Indians in 2017, went 1-2 with a 4.86 ERA. I sure don't want to step in front of the Cleveland 'express' here in Game 1. Make the Indians an 8*! |
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10-05-17 | Avalanche +1.5 v. Rangers | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The New York Rangers are coming off a third straight 100-point season but hope to do better than only reaching the second round of the playoffs, where they were upset by the Ottawa Senators in six games last spring. As for the Colorado Avalanche, they were so bad last season (22-56-4) that it's almost impossible for this season to be worse. The Avalanche managed just 48 points last season, the lowest total since the expansion Atlanta Thrashers totaled 39 points in the 1999-2000 season. The Avalanche finished last in the league in goals per game (2.01), goals allowed (3.37), power-play efficiency (12.6) and second to last on the penalty kill (77.3). The two teams will open their respective seasons against each other at Madison Square Garden on Thursday night in New York City. Colorado: Clearly, there is nowhere for Colorado to go but up. Potential trade pieces Matt Duchene and captain Gabriel Landeskog remained with the club during last year's dismal campaign but let's see how they fare, this time around at the trade deadline. Mikko Rantanen's 20 goals led the way for Colorado, which needs more on the offensive front from former top overall picks Nathan MacKinnon (team-best 37 assists, 53 points) and Nail Yakupov (three goals) as well as second-overall selection Landeskog (18 goals). Colorado's former Vezina Trophy finalist Semyon Varlamov, who is returning from a hip surgery, will be put to the test in short order behind a leaky defense that yielded a league-worst 276 goals. NY Rangers: New York (48-28-6, 4th in Metropolitan Division) boasts substantial depth as opposed to individual stars on offense, with Chris Kreider (club-high 28 goals), Mats Zuccarello (team-leading 44 assists, 59 points), Kevin Hayes (49 points) and Mika Zibanejad (37 points). The 33-year-old Rick Nash (23 goals) enters the final season of a four-year deal that pays the him $7.8 million. The biggest off-season changes for New York occurred with one trade designed to create cap space, dealing top center Derek Stepan and backup goaltender Antti Raanta to the Arizona Coyotes. The Rangers filled the hole left by Stepan from within the organization but had to sign former Winnipeg Jets goaltender Ondrej Pavelec to back up Lundqvist.The Rangers also signed smooth-skating free agent Kevin Shattenkirk to a four-year, $26.6 million contract to calm the waters following the off-season departure of respected defenseman Dan Girardi. Shattenkirk will make his official debut on Broadway, tonight. Speaking of Lundqvist, he endured his worst season last year since entering the NHL in 2005-06, so the Rangers are hoping Shattenkirk's presence helps fortify the defense and takes pressure off the veteran goaltender. The pick: While it's easy to say "it can't get worse than last year for the Avalanche," we don't know that. However, I believe it will be better and as for the Rangers, a 100-point season may be beyond the team' reach in the top-heavy Metropolitan Division.. I'll take the 1 1/2 goals and make Colorado an 8* play. |
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10-05-17 | Red Sox v. Astros UNDER 7 | Top | 2-8 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 37 m | Show |
The pitching matchup: It's a "big-time" showdown in Game 1, as Chris Sale (17-8 & 2.90 ERA) squares off against Justin Verlander (15-8 & 3.36 ERA). Sale was one of MLB's best pitchers for most of the season but struggled over his final eight starts, going 3-4 with a 4.30 ERA (team was 4-4). This marks Sale's first career postseason start, after 260 regular-season games. However, it comes vs. a team he's had great success against, going 5-1 with a 1.31 ERA in six career starts against Houston with 65 strikeouts against only five walks over 48 innings. "I'm 28 years old, so I've been waiting for this about 23 years," Sale told reporters. "This has been a long time coming. A lot of hard work went into this. It's a long season. We had a lot of guys put everything they had on the field the entire season. To have this opportunity right here, it's the best." Verlander's 15 wins don't tell the whole story, as the former MVP and Cy Young winner has gone 5-0 with a 1.06 ERA in five starts since joining the Astros. He allowed four runs (three earned) in 12 innings over two starts against Boston earlier this season, though he did not factor in either decision (Tigers were 1-1). Verlander owns a solid 2.77 ERA vs. Boston over 18 career starts (just 5-6), while the Tigers were only 8-10 in all starts. The pick: "You can't get prepared for it," Verlander told reporters of starting in the postseason. "You have to experience it by being out there and feeling the adrenaline, and experiencing it for yourself." Verlander has had good success in the postseason, save his 0-3 record (7.20 ERA) in three World Series starts. However, he and Houston are two series wins away from a World Series appearance. Have to like Verlander's excellent performance since coming to Houston and his 2.77 ERA in 18 career starts vs. the Red Sox. As for Sale, he's dominated Houston teams in the past and while he struggled down the stretch in 2017, his 2.90 ERA was the second-best among all AL qualifiers plus he owned an 0.97 WHIP, had 308 Ks and opponents batted just .208 against him on the season. Make the Under a 10* |
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10-04-17 | Flyers v. Sharks -151 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -151 | 37 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sharks finished with 99 points last season, one more than they had in 2015-16, en route to a loss in their first Stanley Cup finals appearance. However, a late-season fade last spring saw San Jose drop nine of its final 13 games, a downward spiral that bled into the postseason, where the Sharks lost in the first round to the Oilers. The Sharks kick off a season-opening five-game homestand to night at SAP Center in San Jose against the Philadelphia Flyers. Philly finished 39-33-10 (6th in Metropolitan Division) and missed the postseason for the third time in five years. Philadelphia: The Fylers are a team in transition and may be looking (hoping?) for Nolan Patrick to make an immediate impact. The Flyers selected the center No. 2 overall, as a 16-year-old two seasons ago, Patrick scored 41 goals and a team-high 61 assists for Brandon of the Western Hockey League. He managed to record 20 goals and 26 assists in 33 games in an injury-shortened 2016-17 campaign and then recorded three assists in six preseason games. The Flyers need for Claude Giroux to turn things around. The center led Philadelphia with 86 points in 2013-1 but his scoring has declined in each of the next three seasons. Despite playing all 82 games, Giroux scored only 58 points last season, and his 14 goals were the fewest in a full season since 2009-10. Also a key will be goaltender Brian Elliott. The Flyers have been looking for an elite goaltender for years (the club was tied for 26th in save percentage at .901 last season) and they think Elliott is the answer. Elliott got off to a slow start by going 3-9-1 with a 3.31 goal-against average over the first two months of the campaign last season with Calgary but. he finished 26-18-3 with a 2.55 GAA and two shutouts, which was enough for the Flyers to give the 32-year-old a two-year deal. We'll see who emerges as the team's 'go-to' goaltender, as Michal Neuvirth inked a two-year, $5 million extension in March, San Jose: The Sharks' biggest challenge could be overcoming the loss of Patrick Marleau, who signed a three-year deal with Toronto as a free agent. "Nothing will ever take away what Patrick and our team accomplished over the last nearly 20 years," Sharks general manager Doug Wilson told the San Jose Mercury News in July. Marleeau was selected No. 2 overall in the 1997 draft and is San Jose's all-time leader in virtually every offensive category, including goals (508), assists (573), points (1,081), power-play goals (160), short-handed goals (17) and game-winners (98) over 19 seasons. Letting the 38-year-old Marleau go may come back to bite the Sharks. Last season, he scored 27 goals -- good for third on a team that was 10th in the Western Conference with 2.67 goals per game. San Jose does feature the reigning Norris Trophy winner in Brent Burns, who tied a career high with 29 goals and led the club with 76 points. Joe Pavelski added 29 goals and Logan Couture had 25 goals but after that, no player scored more than 11 goals. Martin Jones won 35 games last season and will again be the team's No. 1 goaltender. The pick: While Philadelphia continues its search for a goaltender, San Jose knows what it has in Martin Jones. He logged 65 games for the second straight campaign and has posted 72 wins, a 2.33 goals-against average and .915 save percentage in two seasons since becoming the club's starter after backing up Jonathan Quick in LA. The Sharks play four of their first five against Eastern Conference teams and San Jose was 21-7-4 against the East, including an 11-4-1 mark vs. Metropolitan Division foes in 2016-17. San Jose was a solid 26-11-4 at home last season and I expect them to open this season with a "W." Make San Jose a 10* play. |
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10-04-17 | Blues v. Penguins UNDER 5.5 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -105 | 35 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Pittsburgh Penguins will raise the fifth championship banner in franchise history to the rafters Wednesday night before kicking off the season against the visiting St. Louis Blues on Wednesday. It was the Penguins' second straight Stanley Cup title, as they became the first team to repeat as Stanley Cup champions since the Detroit Red Wings in did so in1997-98. The Blues went 46-29-7 (3rd in Central Division) and were were eliminated by eventual Cup runner-up Nashville in the second round last spring. St. Louis: The Blues have made six consecutive trips to the playoffs but have advanced to the conference finals only once in that span. They open this season looking to build on the momentum they generated last season after Mike Yeo replaced Ken Hitchcock behind the bench. St. Louis went 22-8-2 under Yeo and finished the regular season on a 15-2-2 run, regaining its defensive identity during a 15-game stretch in which it did not allow more than three goals. Veteran goaltender Jake Allen was floundering during the season but posted a 1.85 goals-against average after Yeo took over! Vladimir Tarasenko has amassed 116 goals over the past three seasons (had 39 goals and 75 points last season) but Patrik Berglund (23) was the only other player on the roster to surpass 20. The Blues attempted to address the scoring issue by acquiring Brayden Schenn, who tallied 25 times with Philadelphia while tying for the league lead with 17 power-play goals last season. Captain Alex Pietrangelo, coming off a career-best 14 goals, leads a solid defensive corps. Pittsburgh: Long-time franchise goaltender Marc-Andre Fleury was taken by Las Vegas in the expansion draft but the Pens are just fine in net, as 23-year-old Matt Murray has earned two Cup rings while technically a rookie! Sidney Crosby led the league in goals (44) and tied for second in scoring (89 points) while No. 2 center Evgeni Malkin supplied 72 points in 62 games. That All Star duo is hardly alone. Phil Kessel and Conor Sheary netted 23 goals apiece, Patric Hornqvist chipped in 21 and rookie Jake Guentzel contributed 16 before a spectacular postseason in which he led all scorers with 13 goals in 25 games. The Pittsburgh defense will receive a big boost with the return of standout Kris Letang, who appeared in only 41 games last season and missed the playoffs after undergoing neck surgery. Goaltender Matt Murray appeared in only 62 regular-season games but he's 22-9 with a 1.95 goals-against average in two Stanley Cup title runs. The pick: The Penguins go for a third straight Cup, something that hasn't been done since the NY Islanders won four in a row from 1980 to 1983. However, it's way too early to talk about (or worry) about stuff like that. Pittsburgh is expected to be without winger Patric Hornqvist because of off-season hand surgery, while St. Louis is expected to be without Alexander Steen (hand), Jay Bouwmeester (ankle), Robby Fabbri (knee), Patrik Berglund (shoulder) and Zach Sanford (shoulder). Pttsburgh and St. Louis have split the two-game series in each of the past three seasons and with two top-notch goalies (Allen and Murray) in net tonight, the Under is a 10* play. |
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10-04-17 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -165 | Top | 8-11 | Win | 100 | 67 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: Much has been made (as it should) about the Twins going from a MLB-high 103 losses in 2016, to a wild card meeting with the Yankees on Tuesday (result unknown at this writing). However, the National League's wild card game features two teams playing postseason baseball coming off fairly big losing seaosn, themselves. In fact, both Arizona and Colorado, 'flipped the script' from their respective 2016 seasons. The Arizona Diamondbacks were 69-93 in 2016 but earned the NL's s No. 1 wild card spot by going 93-69 in 2017. They will host NL West rival the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday, after Colorado went from 75-87 to 87-75 MLB, to earn the No. 2 spot. One couldn't make that up! The pitching matchip: John Gray will take the ball in the biggest start of his career for Colorado. He was limited to 20 starts this season due to some injury issues early in the year but turned in a solid effort, going 10-4 with a 3.67 ERA (team was 13-7 in his starts). He actually fared better at hitter-friendly Coors Field, where he owned a 3.17 ERA, compared to 4.06 on the road. He's 2-2 with a 4.75 ERA in five career starts vs. Arizona (team is 3-2). Zach Greinke is the ace of Arizona's rotation, entering with a 17-7 record in 32 starts with a 3.20 ERA. The D'backs were 22-10 with him on the mound, going plus-$971 vs. the moneyline (8th-best). He's 9-5 (3.97 ERA) lifetime against Colorado in 24 starts (teams are 14-10). The pick: The Rockies struggled at times over the second half of 2017 and were challenged by the Milwaukee Brewers up to the final week of the regular season. Colorado's .273 team BA ranked second in MLB, its 5.09 RPG ranked third an the team's .781 OPS ranked 5th. However, after opening 27-11 on the road, Colorado 'limped' home 14-29 in its final 43 road games. That hardly bodes well against an Arizona team which was 52-29 at Chase Field, outscoring opponents 5.64-to-4.27. Then there is Greinke's home mark. He was 13-1 at home in 18 starts (team was 15-3!), posting a 2.87 ERA, and 0.96 WHIP. Sure's it's a "one-game,winner-take-all" situation but how does one go against Greinke? Make the D'backs a 10* play. |
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10-03-17 | Twins v. Yankees UNDER 7.5 | Top | 4-8 | Loss | -105 | 43 h 52 m | Show |
The set-up: The NY Yankees were 84-78 last season but did not make the postseason. As for Minnesota, it's been well-documented that the Twins lost a MLB-high 103 games in 2016, only to become in 2017, the first team to ever make the playoffs coming off a 100-loss season. The Yankees weren't even sure that Aaron Judge was ready to play every day in the big leagues this spring but he went on to hit 52 HRs, knock in 114 runs, bat .284, slug .627 and post a 1.049 OPS (should I leave out the 208 Ks?). The Twins were 52-56 on the morning of Aug. 5 and owned a negative run differential. However, Minnesota started hitting HRs. The Twins were 19th in the major leagues in runs scored at that pouint but they are since first in the major leagues in 'dingers' (87), while going 33-21. As for the Yanks, they led all of MLB with 241 HRs, ranked second in scoring (5.30 RPG) and sit third in OPS (.785). The Twins have lost 12 straight playoff games, the second-longest streak in postseason history, and ine of those losses have come against the Yankees (note: teams haven't met in the postseason since 2010). The pitching matchup: Ervin Santana (16-8 & 3.28 ERA) will start for Minnesota and Luis Severino (14-6 2.98 ERA) for the Yankees. Santana's in his 13th MLB season and he won 16 games for the third time (career-best was 17 wins in 2010). He entered this season just 57-61 over the previous six years (since that 17-win season) and saw the Twins go 8-22 in his 2016 starts, minus-$1450 vs the moneyline (2nd-worst in MLB). However, he opened 5-0 with an 0.66 ERA through six starts in 2017. By the end of May he was 7-2 with 1.75 ERA. However, he's gone 9-6 since and his ERA has risen 1 1/2 runs, finishing at 3.28. His career numbers are not good against the Yanks, as he's 6-10 with a 5.66 ERA over 20 starts (teams are 7-13). Talk about a bounce back season? Let me introduce you to Luis Severino. He made 22 appearances in 2016, including 11 starts. He was 3-8 overall, with a 5.83 ERA. The Yanks were 2-9 in his starts, going minus-$714 vs. the moneyline. So all he's done in 2017 was make the All Star game while recording career bests in wins (14), WHIP (1.04), and strikeouts, finishing fourth-best among AL pitchers with 230 (allowed only 51 walks). Severino has made just one career start against the Twins (just recently, on Sep. 20), pitching only three innings, giving up three ERs on five hits but the Yanks won 11-3 The pick: This will be Santana’s ninth career postseason appearance and his third start in the AL Wild Card Game. He's clearly cooled off since a hot start but over his six September starts, he's posted a 3.31 ERA (1.90 ERA over his last four!). The Yanks have won 13 of the last 15 times that Severino has taken the mound but note, this is the 23-year-old's first postseason start. However, he's backed by a New York bullpen that's held opposing batters to a .205 BA, by far the lowest opponents' BA in the league. NYY relievers have 653 strikeouts in only 538 1/3 innings! Remember that the Twins have lost 12 consecutive postseason games, while the Yankees come into this game having lost five straight playoff contests. These team will be tight in this winner-take-all contest, making the Under a 10* play. |
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10-02-17 | Redskins v. Chiefs OVER 49 | Top | 20-29 | Push | 0 | 45 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: The 3-0 Kansas City Chiefs come into Week 4 as one of just two unbeaten teams in the NFL (defending champion Atlanta is the other, pending its Sunday game home game with the Bills). KC will welcome the 2-1 Redskins to Arrowhead Stadium for MNF, with Washington coming off an impressive 27-10 win over KC's AFC West rival Oakland in Week 3's SNF contest. This series dates back to 1971, when Hank Stram's last great Chiefs team beat George Allen's first Washington team at old Municipal Stadium in an exciting 27-20 final. KC owns the series, winning eight of nine, with the last meeting coming in 2013, when KC routed Washington 45-10 in Arrowhead. Washington: The Redskins lost their opener, at home to the Eagles but then won 27-20 out in LA over the Rams, before shutting down David Carr and the Oakland offense (Raiders were held to 128 yards and seven FDs!) in a 27-10 home win in Week 3. QB Kirk Cousins was 25-of-30 for 365 yards and three TDs against the Raiders and has completed 68.0 percent for 784 yards with five TDs and just one INT on the season (105.3 QB rating). The running game does not have an established star but ranks sixth in averaging 136.3 YPG. The defense is allowing 20.0 PPG (10th) on 276.0 YPG (5th). Kansas City: QB Alex Smith has always been best-known as a "game manager" but he's completing 77.4 percent for 774 yards with seven TDs and zero INTs (132.7 QB rating leads the NFL!). He has more 'weapons' that ever-before, with WR Hill (16 catches for two TDs), TE Kelce (14 catches) plus rookie RB Kareem Hunt has been 2017's "breakout star." The former Toledo Rocket has 401 yards rushing (8.5 YPC) and four TDs plus nine catches, including two TDs! KC is averaging 31.0 PPG on 397.3 YPG, ranking third in both categories. The defense has allowed a modest 19.0 PPG (7th) but also 369.0 YPG (27th), including 257.3 YPG through the air (23rd). The pick: Andy Reid-coached teams have always been known for their defense and special teams play but with a somewhat conservative offense. However, the Chiefs are averaging 31.0 PPG so far in 2017 and suddenly, have become a "big-play" team. The Chiefs enter this contest having recorded at least one TD of more than 50 yards in an NFL-record nine straight regular-season games. "We've got big-play guys that can go, when given the opportunity. (They) can take it the distance," an elated Alex Smith was quoted as saying. He's right but also, expect Washington's Kirk Cousins to "show up" for this MNF showdown. Both teams have balanced offenses (see above for a reminder) and the play here is a 10* on the over. |
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10-01-17 | Colts v. Seahawks -13 | Top | 18-46 | Win | 100 | 144 h 20 m | Show |
Indianapolis: With Luck still on the shelf, the Colts made a trade with the Pats to get QB Jacoby Brissett after they were routed 46-9 by the Rams in Week 1. Brissett was a noticeable improvement over Scott Tolzein and the Colts took the Cards to OT before losing in Week 2. Then last Sunday, Brissett led the Colts with 259 passing yards and a TD on 17 of 24 passing, while also notching a pair of rushing TDs. He became the first QB in franchise history to rush for two TDs, pass for another and throw for at least 250 yards! T.Y. Hilton had a huge game with seven catches for 153 yards with one TD. The running game still needs to improve, as the Colts are averaging 81.0 YPG (25th). After getting shredded by the Rams for 46 points, Indy's D held the Cardinals to 16 points in an OT, then had a sack and three interceptions against the Browns. Seattle: The Seahawks didn't score a TD in either of its first two games (21 points on seven FGs) and while the Seahawks put up 27 points at Tennessee, the defense allowed 33 points on 420 yards. Russell Wilson had a breakout" game last Sunday, completing 29 of 49 for 373 yards with four TDs but to no avail with Seattle's defense going 'south!' Like th Colts, Seattele needs to get its running going, averaging only 96.7 YPG (19th) through the first three games. Getting back to Seattle's defense, it has long prided itself on not allowing a 100-yard rusher but it has now allowed one in back-to-back weeks and was gashed for 195 yards on the ground by DeMarco Murray (115) and the Titans last Sunday. The pick: Sure, Brissett gives the Colts a better shot but note the team's two competitive games were at home, while Indy was crushed in its lone road game (see above). The Seahawks are in unfamiliar territory at 1-2 and have hardly resembled the team that has won at least 10 games in each of the past five seasons. However, Seattle's offense finally came to life after two ugly efforts to open the season and should have few problems scoring here against the Colts D. Seattle's D is off an embarrassing effort and will rebound in this one. Look out Mr. Brissett. Make Seattle an 8* play. |
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10-01-17 | Eagles +1 v. Chargers | Top | 26-24 | Win | 100 | 140 h 55 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Eagles are off to a solid 2-1 start in 2017 (QB Carson Wentz is now 5-1 in September games) but Sunday is October 1st and the Eagles are traveling cross-country for their Week 4 game. However, the good news is, Philly's opponent is the now-Los Angeles Chargers (at StubHub Center in Carson, Ca.), who have opened 0-3 in 2017, after ending the 2016 season 0-5 (combined run of 0-8 SU and 0-7-1 ATS). Philadelphia: Wentz has completed 62.1 percent of his passes for 816 yards with five TDs and two INTs (90.3 QB rating). He's led the Eagles to 25.7 PPG (10th), somewhat helped by a running game averaging 119.3 YPG (9th) but on a solid 4.5 YPC. LeGarrette Blount has underachieved so far, with only 113 yards in three games (we'll see?). Philly's secondary noticeably wore down in last Sunday's narrow 27-24 win over N.Y. Giants (New York scored all 24 of its points in the fourth quarter) and on the season, Philly has allowed 22.7 PPG (20th) on 321.0 YPG (21st). LA Chargers: The Chargers opened with two close losses (24-21 at Denver & 19-7 at home vs. Miami). They then lost 24-10 at home to KC last week, although they held KC to a modest 311 yards (three Rivers INTS led to 17 points!). LA has allowed 22.3 PPG (a little worse than average (ranks 19th) on 322.7 YPG, which is a little better than average (ranks 13th). QB Philip Rivers went 20-of-40 for 237 yards and three picks against KC and comes in completing 65.2% for 760 yards with four TDs and four INTs. The running game is once again proving to be a liability. Gordon is averaging 48.7 YPG on 3.3 YPC and the team checks in at 70.7 YPG rushing, ranking 27th. The Chargers will be in for a very long season if they can't average more than the 16.0 points they have through three games (ranks 26th)! The pick: This marks the Chargers' third straight home game and while two of the team's three losses this year have been closely contested (lost by three and two points), the Chargers are making a habit of losing "the close ones." The team has seemingly mastered the art of losing close games. It lost an NFL-high eight games last year by seven points less and has already lost two more in that range in 2017. With just nine wins since the beginning of the 2015 season (two-plus seasons), I want no part of the Chargers against a Philly team which just may be 'sneaky good!' Make the Eagles a 10* play. |
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10-01-17 | Mets +1.5 v. Phillies | Top | 0-11 | Loss | -190 | 15 h 54 m | Show |
\ The set-up. The New York Mets and Philadelphia Phillies will square off in the rubber match of this three-game series Sunday, although there is clearly nothing much at stake. In fact, both teams are facing off-seasons which will be likely to be filled with change, including hiring new managers. Collins (69) is the oldest manager in baseball and has steered the Mets for seven seasons, longer than anyone else in team history but a tough 2017 has taken its toll. Is it just a matter of when he is fired? As for the Phillies, Pete Mackanin is already out as Phillies manager, although he's been allowed to manage this final weekend series.The Phillies won Saturday but the Mets won 7-4 in 11 innings on Saturday, when Asdrubal Cabrera hit a three-run HR in the 11th inning. For Phildelphia, the Phillies played well enough down the stretch (have gone 22-17 at home since the All Star break) to avoid a 100-loss season and at 65-96, cannot finish with MLB's worst record (Giants are 63-98). The pitching matchup: Noah Syndergaard (1-2 & 3.18 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets and Nick Pivetta (7-10 & 6.26 ERA) for the Phillies. Syndergaard was rocked for five runs in 1 1/3 innings of a 23-5 loss at Washington on April 30 and was then shelved with a tear in his lat muscle. His 'story' was emblematic of the Mets' season. He made a one-inning start Sep. 23 (also against the Nationals), allowing just one single in a scoreless inning that required only five pitches. Syndergaard's last full start was against Philadelphia on April 20, when he struck out 10 and allowed three ERs in seven innings, which left him 4-1 with a 1.89 ERA in his five career starts versus the Phillies. Pivetta has won two straight starts, allowing two ERs on nine hits over 12 innings (1.50 ERA) with 12 strikeouts. However, the rookie owns a 1.52 WHIP and .287 BAA to go along with his ugly 6.26 ERA. He had perhaps his best start of the year at New York on July 2, allowing a run and one hit over seven innings to get the win, but was reached for 12 runs in 9 2/3 innings over the next two meetings with the Mets! The Phillies are 10-15 in all of his starts in this, his rookie season. The pick:Syndergaard won't stay around long (he's expected to be limited to around 25 pitches) but I'll still back the Mets here, as Pivetta has been rocked in his last two outings by the Mets (12 ERs over 9 2/3 innings for 11.17 ERA). In what is likely Terry Collins' last game, I'll take the 1 1/2 runs and make the Mets a 6* play. |
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10-01-17 | Jaguars v. Jets OVER 39 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 137 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: The Jacksonville Jaguars return from London after pounding the Baltimore Ravens 44-7 last Sunday, one of the more surprising Week 3 outcomes. The 37-point win represents the Jaguars' largest margin of victory in 10 years and they'll try to ride that positive mojo into their Week encounter at MetLife Stadium this Sunday against the NY Jets. How about the J-E-T-S Jets, Jets, Jets? They nearly earned their first shutout in eight seasons, dominating the Dolphins by teh score of 20-6, with Miami not getting on the board until the game's final play! Jacksonville: The Jags sit 2-1 for the first time since 2007. Blake Bortles nearly lost his starting job during the preseason, coming off a poor 2016. He's only completing 59.6 percent (no big deal) and the Jags rank 23rd in passing YPG (193.3) but he's got six TDs passes (had four vs. the Ravens) and only TWO interceptions. "The biggest thing with Blake is probably psychological. I think mentally, him understanding that we're only going as far as he takes us," said TE Marcedes Lewis. BTW...Lewis caught three of Bortles' four touchdown passes against the Ravens. Rookie RB Leonard Fournette has 199 rushing yards this season and while that may not seem like a big deal to many, it's the most by any Jacksonville player through their first three career games plus he has scored one TD in all three games. The D has been terrific, ranking second in total yards (259.7 per) and 4th in points (17.0 per). NY Jets: Speaking of a good defensive effort, the Jets, after some were waxing on about the team having a win-less season, completely shut down the Dolphins, holding them out of the end zone until the game's final play, while allowing just 225 yards for the entire contest. Much-maligned QB Josh McCown had another efficient game (18 of 23 for 249 yards), including a 69-yard TD pass to Robby Anderson. There hasn't been much offense from New York, with the Jets averaging 280.7 YPG (27th) on 17.3 PPG (22nd). The D will be tested by the Jags' offense, as New York ranks 23rd in scoring (24.0 PPG) and 24th in yards allowed (347.7 per). The pick: Seeing the Jags as a road favorite is disconcerting. They are favored on the road for the first time since they played the Indianapolis Colts in 2011 with Curtis Painter filling in for the injured Peyton Manning. When Jacksonville won 29-7 at Houston in Week 1, it was only the third time Bortles had won the road in 23 tries! The key here is this very low over/under number. Scoring was low in Weeks 1 & 2 but Week 3 games averaging just a tick under 50 PPG. Jags playing with confidence plus McCown may just surprise again. Make the Over an 8* play. |
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10-01-17 | Saints -2.5 v. Dolphins | Top | 20-0 | Win | 100 | 134 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL will play a second straight game in London and the fans at Wembley Stadium are hoping to see a more competitive game than the Jags' surprising 44-7 rout of the Ravens last Sunday. The Saints opened their 2017 season by losing 29-19 at Minnesota in Week 1 and 36-20 at home vs. the Pats in Week 2. The Saints earned their first win of the season 34-13 in Carolina this past Sunday against the Panthers. The Dolphins make the trek "across the pond" at 1-1. The team's Week 1 game vs. Tampa Bay was postponed due to Hurricane Irma and after a 19-17 Week 2 win over the Chargers in LA and a 20-6 loss on the road to the NY Jets last Sunday, the Dolphins will be on the road (and how!) for a third consecutive contest. New Orleans: The age-less Drew Brees was 22-of-29 for 220 yards and three TDs in last Sunday's win and enters this contest completing 68.5 percent for 867 yards (Saints rank 5th in passing YPG) with six TDs and not a single INT in 111 attempts! Adrian Peterson has been a non-factor (77 yards on 3.3 YPC), as the running game has not been much of a help, averaging 96.7 YPG (18th). Defense has been a major concern in recent years for New Orleans and that's true again so far in 2017, as the Saints are allowing 26.0 PPG (30th) on 437.7 YPG (31st). Miami: The jury is still out on Jay Cutler, who is completing 64.9 percent but for only 450 yards (Miami ranks 21st in passing YPG) with two TDs and one INT. Cutler has gotten no help from a running game averaging 70.5 YPG (29th) and Miami enters averaging only 12.5 PPG (30th) on 280.5 YPG (28th). The defense has allowed 351.5 YPG (25th) but only 18.5 PPG (6th). The team will have to cut down on those yards, or that scoring average will almost surely rise. The pick: Brees is still on top of his game and Miami is allowing 8.6 yards per pass play, the worst mark in the NFL. The London folks may be in for quite a display from the veteran. Miami's offense is coming off an embarrassing performance in last week's 20-6 loss to the Jets, avoiding a shutout by scoring in garbage time on the game's final play. That last game was a disaster," Miami head coach Gase said. "That's obvious, and it's embarrassing." He may have seen nothing yet. 2017 could be a long year for the Dolphins. Yes, New Orleans has its defensive problems but does Miami have the players to take advantage? I think not! Meanwhile, the Saints have lost to two quality teams (Vikings and Pats) and the team has yet to commit a turnover. I'll throw in that the Saints are 10-1 ATS in their last 11 October games and while maybe it means nothing, it's not a bad thing. Make New Orleans an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Oklahoma State -10 v. Texas Tech | Top | 41-34 | Loss | -110 | 105 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: Oklahoma State opened the season by beating Tulsa (59-24), South Alabama (44-7) and Pittsburgh (59-21) but was humbled at home last Saturday 44-31 by TCU, being done in by four turnovers. The Cowboys had fans dreaming of a Big 12 title and possible berth in the College Football Playoff but now Oklahoma State just looks to get back on track with a ninth straight win against Texas Tech when the Cowboys visit the 3-0 Red Raiders on Saturday in Lubbock. Texas Tech forced five turnovers in its 27-24 road win over Houston last week and are currently second in FBS in turnover margin (plus-2.3 per game). Oklahoma State: QB Mason Rudolph threw for 398 yards against the Horned Frogs but had two interceptions and lost a fumble, dashing his early-season push for the Heisman Trophy. He is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 1,533 yards with 13 touchdowns and three INTs. He has a deep receiving corps with four players with 14 or more catches, combining for 12 TD receptions. WR James Washington leads the way with 19 catches for 520 yards and four TDs, averaging 27.4 YPC. The running game averages 175.0 YOPG (5.0 YPC), led by the duo of Hill (352 yards on 5.7 YPC) and King (210 yards on 6.5 YPC). The defense has allowed 24.0 PPG (61st) on 366.0 YPG (53rd). Texas Tech: The Red Raiders are ninth in scoring (45.0 PPG) on 587.3 YPG (4th). QB Nic Shimonek is completing 73.6 percent for 1,248 yards with 11 TDs and one interception. WR Keke Coutee has 28 catches for 446 yards and four scores. Defensively, Texas Tech is allowing 26.3 PPG (73rd) on 407.3 YPG (85th). That may not seem like a big deal but note that Texas Tech allowed 43.5 PPG on 554 YPG last season. The pick: Texas Tech rallied from a second half, double-digit deficit last year, only to lose 45-44 on a missed extra point with 1:44 left in the game. The Cowboys come to Lubbock in an attempt to extend their eight-game winning streak in the series. Oklahoma State dropped nine places in this week's Associated Press poll (falling from No. 6 to No. 15), so this is a "MUST win." Considering that the Red Raiders are just 6-29 SU vs. ranked teams, the 8* play is on Oklahoma State. |
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09-30-17 | Ohio State -29.5 v. Rutgers | Top | 56-0 | Win | 100 | 104 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ohio State Buckeyes may never overcome that home loss to Oklahoma and qualify for the CFP, unless the team "runs the table." Ohio State is 3-1 (1-0 Big Ten) and will visit High Point Solutions Stadium in New Brunswick, NJ to take on the Rutgers Scarlet Knights (1-3, 0-1 Big Ten). These schools had never met until Rutgers joined the Big Ten and Ohio State has won by scores of 58-0 (2016), 49-7 (2015) and 56-17(2014). Safe to predict the Buckeyes won't lose here, either. Ohio State: J.T. Barrett was not up to the task vs. Oklahoma (zero passing or rushing TDs with one INT) but has completed 37-of-50 passes with seven scoring TDs and zero interceptions in victories over Army (38-7) and UNLV (54-21) the last two weeks. In last week's game vs. UNLV, Ohio State had seven different players catch a TD pass. Barrett is completing 63.3 percent of his passes for 966 yards with 10 TDs and one interception, while adding rushing yards ( TDs). OSU has excellent offensively balance, passing for 319.2 YPG and 229.8 YPG on the ground. J.K. Dobbins leads the way with 520 yards (7.5 YPC) and three touchdowns. More good news is that sophomore RB Mike Weber has been cleared to play after being bothered by a hamstring injury that has limited him to seven carries after he rushed for 1,096 yards last year. Defensively, Ohio State is allowing 20.0 PPG (38th) on 367.2 YPG (56th). Rutgers: Head coach Chris Ash was an Urban Meyer assistant and may be re-thinking his decision to take the Rutgers job. The Scarlet Knights were 2-10 last year (won home games over Howard and New Mexico) and have opened 1-3 in his second year (lone win over Morgan State at home!). The good news in New Jersey is that the Rutgers' D is allowing 18.2 PPG (28th) on 298.2 YPG (24th). That's down from 37.5 PPG allowed in 2016 on 451 YPG! Rutgers has QB woes for the last few seasons and the team's latest starter is Kyle Bolin, who is completing just 57.3 percent of his passes for 642 yards with three TDs and six INTs. The offense averages only 326.8 YPG (111th) and is a little better in scoring, averaging 27.2 PPG (83rd). The pick: I just noted that Rutgers is averaging 27.2 PPG but that's because the Scarlet Knights scored 65 points against Morgan State. In its other three games, Rutgers has averaged a paltry 14.7 PPG. How can this team 'hang' with Ohio State? Urban Meyer is in his sixth season at Ohio State and comes to Rutgers having gone 23-1 SU on the road. Yes, this is an imposing pointspread but as noted above, in three meetings the last three years, Ohio Stat has out-scored Rutgers by a combined 163-24. That's 54.3-to-8.0 PPG! Lay the points and make Ohio State an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Mets v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 7-4 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 34 m | Show |
The set-up: The Philadelphia Phillies are hosting the New York Mets this weekend, as both teams are glad to see the 2017 season come to an end, as both can then look forward to the hope of better things to come in 2018. The visiting Mets lost 6-2 on Friday, snapping a modest three-game winning streak. At 69- 91, the Mets will now need to win one of their final two games to avoid falling shy of 70 victories for the first time since 2003. The Philly win puts them in a position to win four straight games for the first time in two months. Philadelphia is now 22-16 at Citizens Bank Park since the All-Star break, which has helped the 69-95 Phillies climb over the Tigers and Giants (both 63-97) and out of the MLB 'basement!' The pitching matchup: Seth Lugo (7-5 & 4.72 ERA) will take the mound for the Mets, up against Henderson Alvarez (0-1 & 3.60 ERA) of the Phillies. Jacob deGrom was scheduled to make Saturday's start for New York but a case of gastroenteritis has ended his season. Instead, Seth Lugo moves up a day to get the ball. Lugo is coming off his best start of an otherwise difficult season, posting six scoreless innings and striking out seven to defeat Atlanta 3-2 this past Monday. It was the third time in his last four starts that he has allowed one or zero runs. Lugo gave up five runs in 5 1/3 innings at Philadelphia on Aug. 11 in a no-decision while striking out a career-high eight. He's made just two career starts vs. Philly with a 6.97 ERA but the team is 2-0. Alvarez has been plagued by injuries since leaving the Marlins after the 2015 season (note: he threw a no-hitter as a Marlin in 20013 and was an All Star in 2014). He did little with Oakland (mostly sidelined with injury issues) and signed a minor league deal with the Phiilies in August of 2017. He allowed four runs in five innings in his first start with the Phillies on Sep. 17 but was much better last Saturday, pitching five scoreless inning against Atlanta, finishing with two strikeouts and three walks. Alvarez is 5-2 with a 3.50 ERA in nine career starts against the Mets (teams are 6-3). The pick: Lugo's shown his best over his last four, with one poor start but just a single ER allowed over 17 innings in the other three (0.53 ERA) plus Alvarez is a former All Star pitching with no pressure. What's more, Philadelphia's bullpen boasts a 2.45 ERA over the last 31 games. make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-30-17 | Navy v. Tulsa UNDER 72.5 | Top | 31-21 | Win | 100 | 100 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: Navy is 3-0 to open the 2017 season (2-0 in AAC play) and looks to start 4-0 for the second time in three years when it visits the Golden Hurricane of Tulsa Saturday at H.A. Chapman Stadium. Tulsa could use a feel good victory here, as the Golden Hurricane have opened 1-3, with the team's lone win coming 66-42 over ULL (another 1-3 school) at home. However, losing at home 16-13 to New Mexico last Saturday hardly inspires much confidence, plus the team lost a 54-51 hesrt-breaker at Toledo the week before! Navy: I'm a huge fan of head coach Ken Niumatalolo and Navy's overall discipline. QB Zach Abey is completing just 36 percent of his passes but he has made the most of his nine completions, throwing for 295 yards and three TDs. His strength is leading a rushing attack which averages 393.0 YPG (2nd), after Navy rushed for 569 yards in last week's 42-32 victory over Cincinnati (the second-most in program history!). Abey has 471 rushing yards (5.8 YPC) and four TDs. Navy is averaging 35.7 PPG, well on its way to its fifth consecutive season in which the Midshipmen will have averaged better than 31.8 PPG! Navy allowed 31.0 PPG in 2016 but just 24.0 PPG so far in 2017, an improvement of a TD per game! Tulsa: QB Chad President is completing a modest 55.9 percent of his passes for 677 yards with just one TD and one interception. That's hardly the standard for past Tulsa QBs. However, Tulsa's ground game is averaging 311.5 YPG (4th), the reason Tulsa checks in scoring 38.5 PPG. The problem for Tulsa is, its defense is allowing 42.8 PPG (124th) on 590.2 YPG (129th). The pick: OK, so here we go again. Regulars are well aware that I've 'made a killing' with my CFB totals in 2017, specializing in going under on over/under numbers like this, which are 'sky high.' Let's chalk up another one here. Make the Under an 8* play. |
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09-30-17 | Northwestern v. Wisconsin -14.5 | Top | 24-33 | Loss | -110 | 97 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: The 2-1 Northwestern Wildcats and 3-0 Wisconsin Badgers meet Saturday afternoon at Camp Randall Stadium in Madison. Both are members of the Big Ten West and this marks the conference opener for each school. The Wildcats own home wins over Nevada (31-20) and Bowling Green (49-7) but couldn't handle the Blue Devils at Durham, falling 41-17 to Duke (currently 4-0). Wisconsin opened its season with 59-10 and 31-14 home wins over Utah State and Florida Atlantic, respectively, before winning 40-6 at BYU. Both teams come into this contest off a bye. Wisconsin leads the all-time series 58-35-5 and note that the home team has won eight of the last 10, recently. Northwestern: The Wildcats are averaging 32.3 PPG (58th) on 459.0 YPG (45th). QB Clayton Thorson is completing 63.9 percent of his passes for 842 yards with four TDs and three INTs. The Wildcats' ground game is averaging 160.3 YPG (74th), led by RB Justin Jackson. He's now a senior and entered his final season off three consecutive 1,000-yard seasons (he's on the verge of breaking the school's rushing record). Jackson was held to 18 yards at Duke but topped 100 yards in Northwestern's two wins (248 yards with four TDs, overall). Defensively, Northwestern is allowing 22.7 PPG (52nd) on 410.3 YPG (90th). Wisconsin: The Badgers were ranked 9th in the AP's preseason poll and are currently ranked 10th. QB Alex Hornibrook is completing 70 percent of his passes for 701 yards (Wisconsin averages 235.7 YPG through the air) with eight TDs and just one INT. He's greatly aided by a Wisconsin ground game averaging 275.3 YPG (12th), led by RB Jonathan Taylor (438 yards on 8.3 YPC with five TDs). On the other side of the ball, not much is different than from years past. Wisconsin currently checks in allowing just 10.0 PPG (5th) on 248.0 YPG (7th). The pick: This Wisconsin offense wasn't up to the task of winning at Durham against Duke. No way it wins here at Camp Randall. The Badgers defense is a 'horse of a different color,' coming off holding BYU to 192 total yards and it has yet to allow a SINGLE point in the second halves of its three games to-date! Wisconsin entered the 2017 season having gone 60-9 SU at home the previous 10 seasons (that's less than one loss per season). Don't expect a loss here either and if fact, lay the points and make the Badgers a 10* play. |
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09-29-17 | Mariners v. Angels -158 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 21 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The Los Angeles Angels were eliminated from playoff consideration earlier this week and the team has continued to spiral downward. LA will wrap-up the 2017 season with a three-game home series with Seattle, having lost nine of its last 11 games. Seattle also had its hopes of ending a 15-season playoff drought before it fell out of the wild-card derby because of its own swoon. The Mariners lost eight of nine games in a pivotal stretch before recovering to take two of three from the Oakland A's to open the final week of the season Monday through Wednesday. The pitching matchup: Marco Gonzales (1-1 & 6.25 ERA) takes the mound for Seattle and Tyler Skaggs (2-6 & 4.48 ERA) for Los Angeles. Gonzales is making his seventh start for the Mariners but his first since beating Texas back on Sep 12. Gonzales has made two relief appearances since his last start (three scoreless innings) but he's been very ineffective over his 10 appearances in 2017, as he owns a 1.78 WHIP and .360 BAA to go along with his 6.25 ERA. Gonzales started against the Angels on Aug. 11 and gave up one run (on a homer) and four hits in 4 1/3 innings while drawing a no-decision (lone appearance against LA in his brief career). Skaggs received a no-decision in his last start when he allowed four runs on six hits in five innings against the Houston Astros. He's made 15 starts in 2017 with LA going 7-8. He did turn in a strong outing against Seattle on Aug. 10, giving up five hits in 6 1/3 scoreless innings of a no-decision. Skaggs is 1-2 with a 4.67 ERA in six career starts against the Mariners (teams are 3-3).
The pick: The 78-81 Angels need a sweep of the Mariners to avoid their third losing campaign in five seasons. Let's not get ahead of ourselves but the Mariners may not put up much of a fight this weekend. Surely, Gonzales should be no trouble of the LA bats. Make the Angels an 8* play. |
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09-29-17 | BYU v. Utah State OVER 46 | Top | 24-40 | Win | 100 | 81 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The BYU Cougars have opened the season 1-3 and Friday night will travel to Romney Stadium in Logan, Utah to take on the 2-2 Utah State Aggies. The Cougars were off last Saturday, after losing 40-6 at home to Wisconsin on Sep. 16. The Cougars were out-gained by the Badgers 491-to-192 in total yards, as the the team's season-long offensive woes continued (BYU ranks 130th in scoring at 9.8 YPC). Utah State improved to 2-2 on the season after defeating San Jose State 61-10 this past Saturday. The Aggies jumped all over Spartans, scoring the game's first 55 points and out-gained them by a margin of 589-to-171 in total yards. BYU: It's hard to imagine that BYU, a school known for its offensive prowess over the years, ranks 130th in scoring and 129th in total yards (221.8 YPG). Tanner Mangum was named the starting QB prior to the season but suffered a leg injury during the final play of the Cougars' 19-13 loss to Utah on Sep. 9. Beau Hoge started in place of Mangum against the Badgers, completing 11 of 20 passes for 111 yards and two interceptions in what was the first start of his collegiate career. According to BYU head coach Kalani Sitake, Mangum's availability against the Aggies is still up in the air (note: Mangum took the field as a team captain wearing a protective boot and with an accompanying riding scooter prior to the Cougars' 40-6 loss to Wisconsin). Defensively, BYU has allowed 27.0 PPG (53rd) on 404.0 YPG (82nd). Utah State: Dominating San Jose State is nothing to brag too much about. Leading the way for Utah State was QB Kent Myers, who completed 18-24 passes for 181 yards and two TDs with an INT. The Aggies are averaging 33.0 PPG (56th) on 439.0 YPG (55th) with nice balance (264.0 passing / 175.0 rushing). Defensively, the Aggies are allowing an average of 32.0 PPG (103rd) on 385.0 YPG (66th). Utah State has been helped by forced nine turnovers in four games. The pick: This is the 87th meeting of this series (BYU leads 48-35-3) but I'll note that Utah State has won seven straight home games against non-conference opponents. BYU comes in with an offense which has done nothing but the Cougars are dropping way down in class after losses to LSU, Utah and Wisconsin (combined 10-1 SU). The Cougars have dominated this series since 1983 (won 25 of 28) and I see a "breakout performance." This 'low' total sets up a 10* play on the Over. |
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09-29-17 | Pirates v. Nationals UNDER 7.5 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 105 | 18 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: Nationals manager Dusty Baker is liberally resting his stars in a bid to keep his team as healthy as possible as it awaits postseason play. That includes the recently returned Bryce Harper and naturally, people are interested."Nothing. Don't be alarmed. Nothing. Again ... nothing," Baker said in response to reporters asking if something was wrong with Harper, who missed 1 1/2 months with a knee injury before returning to action on Tuesday. The Nats have a huge series looming as they will face the defending champion Cubs in the NLDS. Washington won 5-4 last night in the first of this four-game series with Pittsburgh, a team which will miss its second straight postseason (currently 73-86), after three consecutive wild card appearances (all losses though!) from 2013-2015. The pitching matchup: Gerrit Cole (12-11 & 4.23 ERA) starts for Pittsburgh and Stephen Strasburg (14-4 & 2.63 ERA) for Washington. Cole picked up his first win since August 26 last Saturday, although he allowed five runs on seven hits in the Pirates' 11-6 win over the Cards. Cole has allowed 14 runs in last three starts (16 2/3 innings for a 7.56 ERA) and looks to regain the form that saw him allow one run on three hits in a 6-1 rout of Washington on May 17. He's done well vs. the Nats in his short career, going 3-1 with a 2.56 ERA in five starts (Pirates are 4-1). Strasburg saw his four-start winning streak stalled as he settled for a no-decision in Saturday's game against the New York Mets. He allowed three runs in that contest after tossing five straight outings (35 innings) in which he did not surrender an earned run. The Nats did win Saturday's game 4-3 and Washington has now won Strasburg's last six starts, making them 21-6 (plus-$1050) in all of his 2017 starts, the seventh-best moneyline mark among starters. Strasburg picked up the win versus Pittsburgh on May 16 after permitting three runs in six innings. He's 4-2 with a 2.76 ERA over seven career starts vs. Pittsburgh (Nats are 5-2). The pick:Who knows which players Baker may rest and as noted, Cole's had solid success against the Nats. Strasburg's been "lights out" recently and this marks his final 'tune-up' before the playoffs. Excellent spot to make the Under a 10* play. |
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09-29-17 | Miami-FL -7 v. Duke | Top | 31-6 | Win | 100 | 80 h 47 m | Show |
The set-up: The Miami Hurricanes have two scheduled saffected by Hurrican Irma and enter this Saturday game playing for just the third time this year, instead of the fifth. No. 14 Miami is currently sitting at 2-0, following a 41-13 win over Bethune-Cookman (9/2), a canceled game against Arkansas State (9/9) a postponed game with Florida State (9/16) and a 52-30 victory over Toledo. Miami will travel to Wallace Wade Stadium in Durham to face the 4-0 Duke Blue Devils, who are aiming for their first 5-0 start since the 1994 team opened 7-0. This marks the 15th meeting between the Hurricanes and Blue Devils since the series began in 1976, with Miami holding a 12-2 series advantage. Miami-Fl: The 'Canes have averaged 46.5 PPG (8th) on 571.0 YPG (6th) but of course, their two opponents have been Bethune-Cookman and Toledo. QB Brad Kaaya has moved on, replaced by Malik Rosier. He's completed 68.8% for 688 yards with six TDs and just one INT. RB Mark Walton has 353 rushing yards (204 on just 11 carries vs. Toledo) and is averaging a whopping 13.0 YPC with three TDs. Miami's D has yet to be tested but comes in allowing 21.5 PPG (47th). Duke: The Blue Devils have an offense capable of testing Miami's D. Duke comes in averaging 40.5 PPG (23rd) on 471.0 YPG (38th). QB Daniel Jones s completing 61.9% for 904 yards with five TDs and two INTs. He's also a running threat, gaining 141 yards with three TDs. The rushing attack averages 228.0 YPG (27th), led by the duo of Shaun Wilson (349 yards / 5.9 YPC) and Brittain Brown (35 yards / 6.7 YPC). Duke's defense owns impressive numbers, allowing 15.2 PPG (17th) on 271.8 YPG (16th), including just 75.5 YPG on the round (5th). The pick: Sure, Miami owns a 12-2 series lead but the Blue Devils will certainly remember the last time the Hurricanes visited Durham (in 2015), as Miami pulled out the 30-27 victory with a controversial last-gasp 91-yard kickoff return that featured eight laterals and four missed calls that resulted in suspensions for the ACC officiating crew. Last year, Miami topped Duke 40-21 in Miami Garden, Fl, behind 396 passing yards and four TD passes from Kaaya. Revenge is clearly with Duke but this is easily the Blue Devils' biggest test. Duke opened with three home games and had plenty against 1-3 North Carolina. Miami has a make-up game next Saturday with Florida State but a loss here makes that encounter significantly less important. Miami won't need any late-game heroics in this one. Make Miami an 8* play. |
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09-28-17 | Bears v. Packers UNDER 45.5 | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -110 | 72 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: The NFL's longest rivalry resumes in Week 4's Thursday night game on CBS. The 1-2 Chicago Bears and 2-1 Green Bay Packers meet at Lambeau Field. Back on Sep. 25, 1960, the Chicago Bears, who were coached by the legendary George Halas, beat the Green Bay Packers, who were coached by the future legend Vince Lombardi, 17-14. That victory gave the Bears he Bears a commanding 50-26-6 edge in the series. However, after the Packers swept last year's two games, the series is knotted at 94-94-6. That means that with a victory tonight, the Packers could take the series lead for the first time since 1932! Chicago: Many are not sold on Chicago's current starting QB Mike Glennon. He is completing 67.3 percent of his passes but for a modest 615 yards (Chicago ranks 27th in passing yards), while tossing three TDs and three INTs, giving him a QB rating of only 79.8. However, in fairness, Chicago's wide receiver corps have been ravaged by injury, The running game has been a nice surprise, averaging 121.7 YPG (8th) on 5.0 YPC, led by Howard (197 yards on 4.4 YPC with 3 TDs) and Cohen (157 yards on 6.5 YPC). Chicago will need to find a way to score more, as it is averaging only 15.7 PPG (28th). The defense has been average, allowing 23.0 PPG (21st) on 321.7 YPG (12th). The strength is its rush D, holding opponents to 83.7 YPG to rank 8th. Green Bay: Rodgers is second in the league with 967 yards passing, exceeding 300 in each of the first three games. Although most teams would be just fine with their starting QB owning a passer rating of 93.1, it marks just the third time Rodgers' QB rating is below 100 in the 10 seasons since he took over as Green Bay's starter. Rodgers has attempted at least 42 passes in each game behind a banged-up offensive line, among the reasons he has been sacked a league-high 13 times. Running back Ty Montgomery, despite leading the team with 18 receptions, has rushed for only 124 yards in three games (3.0 YPC). Green Bay comes in averaging only 69.0 YPG on the ground, ranking 29th in the league. The defense has allowed a modest 296.7 YPG (8th-best) but also 22.3 PPG, just 18th-best. The pick: Rodgers has 17 TD passes versus just one interception in his last six meetings with Chicago and he's 15-4 against Chicago with a QB rating of 105.7. I'm not about to go against "the Pack," especially since Chicago comes in on a nine-game road losing streak (last road win was Week 16 of the 2015 season at Tampa Bay). However, the Bears have been quietly playing better than expected. Chicago lost to the defending NFC champion Falcons by just six points in Week 1 and are coming off a shocking home upset over the Pittsburgh Steelers. in OT last Sunday. Meanwhile, the Packers are still dealing with offensive line issues to the point they’re signing players off of other teams practice squads in hopes of patching things up. Both teams are off OT wins and playing on a short week. The play here is a 10* on the Under. |
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09-28-17 | Texas -6.5 v. Iowa State | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 57 h 37 m | Show |
The set-up: The Texas Longhorns and Iowa State Cyclones meet Thursday night on ESPN at Jack Trice Stadium in Ames, Iowa. It's the Big-12 opener for both teams, although the 2-1 team is Iowa State, not Texas. The Cyclones are a 44-41 overtime loss to Iowa on Sep 9 away from a 3-0 start, opening the season with a 42-24 home victory over Northern Iowa and winning at Akron 41-14 on Sept. 16. The Longhorns began the 2017 season ranked 23rd in the AP's preseason poll but opened it with a 51-41 home loss to Maryland, before following with a 56-0 home victory over woeful San Jose State. Texas' best performance of the season came in a hard-fought OT loss at USC (currently ranked 5th). Texas defeated Iowa State 27-6 last season in Austin and leads the all-time series 12-2, including going 5-1 in Ames Texas: Tom Herman was Iowa State's offensive coordinator from 2009-11 and helped guide the Cyclones to a pair of bowl games. He left there to be Urban Meyer's OC at Ohio State and then made a big 'splash' as Houston's head coach in 2015 and 2016, landing him the Texas job. Things have have not gone smoothly so far. It hasn't helped that sophomore QB Shane Buechele, who passed for 375 yards and two TDs and ran for another TD against Maryland, has missed the last two games with a shoulder injury. However, he is expected to return here, although All-American left tackle Connor Williams (sprained MCL and PCL) is not around to block for him on an already thin OL. Sure, Texas ran for 406 yards against San Jose State but the Longhorns ran for only 98 yards (31 carries) against Maryland and had just 68 yards rushing on 35 attempts versus USC! The defense was awful vs. Maryland (allowed 51 points on 482 yards) but redeemed itself vs. USC. Which one shows up here? Iowa State: Junior QB Jacob Park is completing 66.7 percent of his passes for 935 yards with eight TDs and just two INTs. Iowa State ranks ranks 14th in the NCAA in passing (311.7 YPG) and Park now owns four 300-yard passing games in his six career starts. He has a terrific target in senior WR Allen Lazard, a preseason All-American who has 19 receptions for 178 yards and three TDs and is the active NCAA career leader in consecutive games with a reception (38). The running game averages 152.0 YPG, just 82nd in the nation. The defense is at best, mediocre, allowing 27.3 PPG (78th) on 402.0 YPG (80th). The pick: Iowa State has an offense which can produce, as noted by 'ringing up' 38 points in regulation against an Iowa team, which almost upset Penn State last Saturday, holding the Nittany Lions to 21 points! Then again, the Nittany Lions did 'run all over' the Hawkeyes, gaining 579 yards. It's true that Iowa State is 7-1 ATS its last eight home games but with Buechele returning at QB, the Texas offense should be up to the task. Texas fans finally got a glimpse of a better future when Tom Herman almost pulled an upset at USC with backup QB Ehlinger. Here, they get to see "the Full Monty!" Make Texas a 10* play. |
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09-28-17 | Rays v. Yankees OVER 8.5 | Top | 9-6 | Win | 105 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
The set-up: The Yankees beat the Rays 6-1 last night (have won 12 of 18 meetings this year) and remained three games back of Boston in the AL East. With just four games remaining in the regular season, winning the American League East is unlikely but the 89-69 Yanks have clinched the No. 1 wild card spot and at 89-69 on the season, will (surely should) reach 90 wins for the first time since 2012. The Rays were eliminated from playoff contention on Tuesday and have dropped three in a row to assure they will finish under .500 for the fourth consecutive season (are currently 76-82). The pitching matchup: Jacob Faria (5-4 & 3.33 ERA) will get the nod for Tampa Bay and Sonny Gray (10-11 & 3.31 ERA) for New York. Faria returns to make his first start since August 16, after missing a month with an abdominal strain (Alex Cobb was scratched due to workload issues). Faria is a rookie who made 13 starts before his injury and allowed two runs over five innings in two relief appearances since being activated. However, Faria comes in win-less in his last four starts, going 0-3 (team was 1-4) with a 5.06 ERA. Faria had a no-decision in his lone appearance against the Yankees, allowing three runs on three hits over four innings back on July 30 (Rays won 5-3). Gray has pitched far better than his 4-6 record indicates since being acquired by the Yankees. His Sep. 12 outing against Tampa Bay is a good example, as he gave up two runs over eight innings in a 2-1 loss. Gray is 3-3 with a 3.71 ERA in 10 career starts against Tampa Bay (teams are 4-6). The pick; Gray owns a 3.12 ERA with the Yanks but recently, he's had some issues with "the long ball," allowing eight HRs in his last six starts. He'll take the mound on Thursday behind a team which has 11 wins in its last 12 home games and 19 wins in its past 26 overall since Aug. 16. The hot streak has assured them of being, at worst, the home team in next Tuesday's wild-card game against the Minnesota Twins. Meanwhile, the Rays are 1-8 at New York this season and clinched their 10th straight series loss at Yankee Stadium with Wednesday's loss. Faria hasn't seen much action since Aug. 30 and was struggling as a starter prior to going on the DL (see above). The play here is on the Over (10*s). |
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09-27-17 | Reds v. Brewers -160 | Top | 6-0 | Loss | -160 | 22 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Milwaukee's four-run first inning was good enough for them to hold off the Reds 7-6 on Tuesday. The win left the Brewers 1 1/2 games behind the Rockies (with five to play) for the second NL wild card spot. Milwaukee is only one game ahead of St. Louis and plays its final three on the road against the Cardinals, so it cannot afford a misstep versus Cincinnati, in this, the team's final home series of the 2017 season. The 66-91 Reds will just be content with the fact that they will be able to stay out of the NL 'basement' (Phillies are 63-95 and Giants are 62-96). The pitching matchup: Homer Bailey (5-9 & 6.96 ERA) goes for the Reds and Brandon Woodruff (2-2 & 3.76 ERA) for the Brewers. Bailey is coming off another shaky outing on Thursday, lasting only four innings while giving up four runs on seven hits in a loss to St. Louis. Injuries have limited Bailey to 17 starts in 2017 and he owns a 1.75 WHIP and .318 BAA to go along with his bloated 6.96 ERA. He has faced the Brewers twice within the past seven weeks, winning at Milwaukee with five innings of two-run ball on Aug. 11 and settling for a no-decision on Sept. 4 after allowing three runs in six innings. He is 6-9 with a 4.87 ERA in 25 career starts vs. Milwaukee (Reds are 12-13). Woodruff allowed just four ERs in his first four major-league starts but has had some shaky moments over his last three, surrendering 13 ERs and 20 hits over 17 innings (6.88 ERA). Woodruff has never faced the Reds (just seven ML starts) and it's a concern that the Brewers are 3-0 in his road starts (2.00 ERA) but 0-4 in his home starts (5.16 ERA). The pick: Sure, Woodruff's home struggles are a concern but Bailey is a highly-beatable pitching foe. Milwaukee has virtually no margin of error and beating the Reds, who have dropped seven consecutive contests and are only 27-49 on the road in 2017, is a MUST. Make Milwaukee a 10* play. |
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09-27-17 | Nationals v. Phillies UNDER 9 | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -110 | 21 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper finally made his return last night, after missing six weeks due to a knee injury. He played five innings in his first contest since Aug. 12, as the Nats lost 4-1 to the Phillies. According to manager Dusty Baker, Harper was "like a little kid on opening Little League day." Baker plans to incorporate Harper into game action as if it were spring training in hopes he's ready to go full throttle for the NLDS. BTW, Washington is locked into the second seed in the playoffs and will host the NL Central champion, either the Chicago Cubs or the Milwaukee Brewers, in the division series. The Nats and Phillies play the rubber match of this three-game series tonight, as the 63-95 Philadelphia, with just four games left in its season, has now guaranteed that it will avoid becoming the franchise's first 100-loss club since 1961. "First of all, when I said that 98, 99 or 100 losses didn't matter, I lied," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said after his team's win Tuesday.We gain feel his pain. The pitching matchup: Tanner Roark (13-10 & 4.41 ERA) goes for Washington and Mark Leiter Jr. (3-6 & 4.69 ERA) for Philly. Roark went 16-10 with a 2.83 ERA in 2016 but here in 2017, has seen his ERA rise more than 1 1/2 runs. However, he's still 13-10 (team is 16-13 in his 29 starts) and comes in having allowed three ERs or less in his last nine starts (team is 6-3). There is also the fact that he has dominated the Phillies since the start of the 2016 season, posting a 4-0 mark with a 1.87 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. Leiter allowed one earned run in six innings versus the Los Angeles Dodgers last Thursday, in getting a no-decision in LA's 5-4 win. However, that effort still leaves him with a 7.17 ERA in four Sep. starts (he's 1-2 and the team 1-3). Leiter's lone win this month came at the expense of Washington, as he overcame a pair of HRs and four runs total in a 5-4 victory on Sep. 9, the rookie's lone start vs. the Nats. The pick: Roark's recent domination of the Phillies (see above for a reminder) plus the fact that Leiter has had confidence-boosting outings in his last two appearances (12 Ks and just two walks in 12 innings) gives me an 8* play on the Under. |
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09-26-17 | Padres v. Dodgers OVER 7.5 | Top | 2-9 | Win | 100 | 14 h 13 m | Show |
The Dodgers beat the Padres 9-3 last night, giving them their 100th win of the season. There was a time when there was talk that LA had a chance at 116 wins in 2017 but that all ended when the team lost 16 of 17 games. However, the Dodgers have reached the 100-win mark for the first time in 43 years! Two more wins and they will match the Los Angeles-era record set in 1962 and matched in 1974 of 102 wins. Los Angeles also now holds a 4 1/2-game lead over Washington for the best record in the National League and with just five games remaining, the team's magic number is down to two. The San Diego Padres have allowed 17 runs in back-to-back losses and have lost four of their last six contests. The pitching matchup: Dinelson Lamet (7-7 & 4.45 ERA) will be on the mound for San Diego and Alex Wood (15-3 & 2.71 ERA) for LA. Lamet has pitched reasonably well lately, allowing less than two runs in four of his last six outings but finds himself 0-3 and the team 0-6, in that span. Lamet struck out 10 and allowed one run on six hits in a loss on Sep. 1 in his lone career outing against the Dodgers (0-1 & 1.50 ERA). Wood was 10-0 with a 1.67 ERA prior to the All Star game but his performance has dropped since the break, going 5-3 with a 3.97 ERA. He is 1-1 with a 3.21 ERA in three appearances (two starts / LA is 1-1) against the Padres this season and 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 11 career games (seven starts / teams are 3-4). The pick: The SD pitching staff has been battered for 17 runs on 22 hits the last two games and no reason to expect Lamet to 'stop the bleeding' (he allowed six hits, including three HRs, and six runs in 5 1/3 innings in his last start). Wood's been pretty 'mortal' since the break and the Over is a 10* play. |
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09-26-17 | Tigers v. Royals -167 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Kansas City had its elimination number reduced to one with an 11-3 loss at the New York Yankees on Monday afternoon. The Royals are approaching the end of an era with franchise cornerstones Mike Moustakas, Eric Hosmer, Lorenzo Cain and Alcides Escobar all set to reach free agency at the end of the season. "You're definitely aware of the possibility that could happen," Royals manager Ned Yost told reporters of all four players leaving after the season. "These guys have been going so hard this year and they're all beat down. You would really like to just give them a couple days off, but it's hard to do because our fans are going to want to see them." KC will finish the season with a six-game homestand, beginning tonight with the opener of a three-game series with the Detroit Tigers. Detroit enters on a seven-game losing streak (longest current one in MLB) and with an overall record of 62-94, a half-game better than the Phillies and Giants, as those three are in a race to the bottom for MLB's worst record in 2017. The Tigers are headed toward their worst record since the 2003 squad lost 119 games and Monday it was revealed that Miguel Cabrera is dealing with two herniated discs in his back and could miss the rest of the season. |
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09-26-17 | Nationals -145 v. Phillies | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -145 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: Bryce Harper was expected to return last night from his knee injury (last played on Aug. 12) but flu-like symptoms kept the 2015 National League MVP out of the opener of the Nationals' three-game series in Philadelphia against the Phillies. The Nationals made it three straight wins last night with a 3-1 victory, as well as six wins in their last eight. However, the Dodgers won last night too (1st 100-win season since 1974) and LA's magic number to clinch the NL's best record is down to two. Washington is pretty much resigned to not having home field advantage if it meets LA in the NLCS. As for the Phillies, they've followed a 7-2 stretch by losing four of five and once again find themselves with MLB's worst record. Actually, they are tied with the Giants at 62-95! The pitching matchup: Gio Gonzalez (15-7 & 2.68 ERA) gets the nod for the Nats and Jake Thompson (2-2 & 4.14 ERA) for the Phils. Gonzalez improved to 7-2 in his last nine starts on Wednesday, allowing two runs on three hits in seven innings of a 7-3 victory at Atlanta. He's the "forgotten man" in a rotation featuring Scherzer and Starsburg but with one more win, he'll match the second-highest win total of his career, topped only by his 21-8 season back in 2012. He's seen plenty of the Phillies in his career (22 starts) and has posted an excellent 2.60 ERA. However, he's 10-6 and his teams are just 12-10 in all starts. Thompson made 10 starts last year for Philly and this marks his 11th appearance (eighth start) of 2017. However, he did turn in his second straight strong outing this past Wednesday, allowing one run on three hits in five innings of a no-decision versus the Los Angeles Dodgers. In his previous start, he had pitched 5 1/3 scoreless innings vs. Miami. The 23-year-old was shelled in his last encounter versus Washington, allowing seven runs on seven hits in five innings of an 11-10 loss on Sept. 8. Thompson is 0-2 with a 4.67 ERA in three career starts vs. the Nats (team is 0-3). The pick: As noted already, Gonzalez has compiled a 2.60 ERA over 22 starts (138 2/3 innings) against the Phillies but his record should be better. Case in point is two no-decisions in 2017, despite allowing a combined three ERs in 14 innings (1.93 ERA). This could be Gonzalez' last start of the regular season and I expect him to go out with a 'bang,' as the Nationals look for their 24th win in their last 31 games versus the Phillies. Make Washington an 8* |
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09-25-17 | Mariners v. A's UNDER 9.5 | Top | 7-1 | Win | 100 | 22 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Break up the A's! Oakland completed its second straight three-game sweep with Sunday's 8-1 home victory over the Texas, all but ending Rangers' wild-card hopes over the weekend. Oakland's three-game sweep pushed the Rangers 5 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second American League wild card with seven contests remaining and now the A's will look to extend their winning streak to eight when they host the Seattle Mariners on Monday. The 72-83 A's will not be able to 'hurt' the Mariners in this three-game series, as 75-81 Seattle was eliminated from playoff contention with Sunday's 4-2 loss against Cleveland, the Mariners' their eighth loss in their last nine games. The pitching matchup: Felix Hernandez (5-5 & 4.57 ERA) will start for Seattle and Daniel Gossett (4-9 & 5.38 ERA) for Oakland. Hernandez makes just his third start since coming off another stint on the DL in mid-September and for the first time since late July, will face a team other than the Rangers. He started against Texas back on July 31, then spent about six weeks on the DL and has made his last two starts against the Rangers, as well. Hernandez is 24-9 with a 2.62 ERA over 45 careers starts against the A's (team is 31-14). Gossett, a 24-year-old rookie, is coming off a no-decision at Detroit on Tuesday, despite allowing six runs on nine hits and three walks over just 4 2/3 innings. However, let's note that he had allowed three runs or less in each of his previous four starts, yet went only 1-3 in that span. The pick: The A's are on a roll and playing without any pressure but the Mariners are also in that same position now (no pressure), after getting eliminated from the postseason. "King Felix's" 24 wins against the A's are his most victories versus any team. No reason to expect him not to be sharp here and this sets up as an Under (10* play). |
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09-25-17 | Cowboys -2.5 v. Cardinals | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: University of Phoenix Stadium will be the site of Week 3's Monday Night Football game on ESPN, as the 1-1 Cowboys travel to meet the 1-1 Cardinals. Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott has been mired in controversy as he awaits word on the stay of his six-game suspension stemming from domestic-abuse allegations, plus his effort (or lack thereof) was questioned inside his own locker room after the team's humbling 42-17 loss last Sunday in Denver. As for Arizona, the Cards escaped with a three-point OT win at Indy last Sunday and will play a game in their own stadium for the first time since August 19(preseason Week 2). These teams opened the 2017 preseason schedule in Canton, with the Cowboys winning 20-18. Dallas: Cowboys head coach Jason Garrett wasn't pleased with Elliott's hustle or competitiveness when the RB showed zero-to-little interest in turning into a defensive player following two Dak Prescott interceptions, one of which was returned for a TD and one during which Elliott turned away from the play with his hand on his hips. Elliott had just rushing nine attempts against Denver (eight yards!) and that played a significant role in Dak Prescott attempting a career-high 50 passes last week. Only Aaron Rodgers (92) has more pass attempts after Week 2 than Prescott, who has 89. The Cowboys are averaging 245.5 YPG through the air and just 84.5 YPG rushing. That's a far cry from the excellent balance the team had in 2016, going 13-3 SU & 10-6 ATS (226.9 YPG passing and 149.8 YPG rushing, which ranked second in the NFL). Arizona: The Cards are also worried about their running game. The Cardinals lost star RB David Johnson to a left wrist injury in Week 1, then Kerwynn Williams was the starter against the Colts last week. However, after averaging just 64.0 YPG rushing in the first two weeks (to rank 30th of 32 teams), it appears Bruce Arians will turn to veteran Chris Johnson against the Cowboys. Carson Palmer was 19-of-36 passing with 332 yards, one TD and one INT last week, after throwing three INTs with a 53.1 QB rating in the loss at Detroit. The pick: The Cowboys are dealing with some injuries but it was their pride and ego that were wounded the most during the rout at the hands of the Broncos. However, Dallas looked pretty darn good against the Giants and I'm not about to 'cry Uncle,' just yet. That's especially true here against the Cards, who look like a shell of the team that went all the way to the NFC championship game just two seasons ago (2015). The Cards are very fortunate to be 1-1 and I'm not convinced they are any better than the 7-8-1 team of 2016. Arizona heads into this game just 4-11 ATS in its last 15 home games, including the postseason. Make Dallas a 10* play.
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09-25-17 | Angels -145 v. White Sox | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -145 | 20 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: The LA Angels have not been eliminated from wild card consideration just yet but the Angels are "on the brink." They open MLB's final week of the regular season clinging to the hope of reaching the postseason but they have their work cut out for them. LA snapped a six-game slide with Sunday's 7-5 win over Houston but a 5-11 stretch leaves them 4 1/2 games behind Minnesota for the second and final wild-card spot in the American League. The good news is that the Angels are in Chicago tonight for the opener of a four-game series and the White Sox are in "rebuilding mode" plus are just playing out the string at 63-92 (only the Tigers are worse in the AL at 62-94). |
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