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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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11-17-20 | Buffalo v. Bowling Green +30.5 | Top | 42-17 | Win | 100 | 59 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams are only playing six games in the MAC this year, but I still think this sets up as a bit of a "look ahead" game for Buffalo. The Bulls are 2-0 and the Bowling Green Falcons are 0-2. But with a game at 2-0 Kent State up next, I believe the Bulls will be caught taking the foot off the gas in the second half. The pick: Buffalo likes to run the ball and the Falcons are poor at stopping the run. This one comes down to whether or not Bowling Green can get some points in garbage time and I believe it can, as even Northern Illinois put some points on the board in garbage time vs. the Buffs last time out. For all the reasons listed above, grab as many points as you can and expect a solid back door cover. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Bowling Green. |
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11-16-20 | Vikings v. Bears +3 | Top | 19-13 | Loss | -115 | 149 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: Chicago comes in off a tough 24-17 loss at Tennessee. The Bears are now desperate as they look to break a three-game slide. The Vikes on the other hand look poised for letdown in my opinion after two-straight wins, most recently a 34-20 victory over the Lions. Dalvin Cook has sure looked great for Minnesota of late, so far he has 858 rushing yards and 13 TD's. Despite their recent "blip of success" though, note that the Vikings average 27.1 PPG, while conceding 29.3. The picks: Nick Foles had a big day in the Tennessee loss, going 36 of 52 335 yards and two touchdowns. The Bears have dominated this series at home, going 16-3 the last 19 in this series and 5-1 ATS the last six. Clearly I believe the outright is going to happen, but in the end I'll recommend to grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Chicago Bears. |
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11-15-20 | Seahawks v. Rams -117 | Top | 16-23 | Win | 100 | 152 h 45 m | Show |
The set-up: This game opened as a pick, but it's since moved to -2.5 or even -3 for the home side. For this pick I'm going to suggest steering clear of the spread though and to lay the reasonable price for the Rams to win on the money-line. Seattle got out to a great start, but that came against weak competition. The Hawks' defense is atrocious and I expect Jared Goff and the Rams to take care of business at home. Seattle has also lost two in a row on the road. Russell Wilson has 28 touchdown passes and only eight interceptions, but Seattle allows 30.4 PPG. The picks: The Rams on the other hand have won three straight at home. LA averages 24.1 PPG and it concedes just 19. LA lost to Miami, but it conceded only 145 total yards. While this is a money-line bet, it's still interesting to note that LA is 5-1-1 ATS in its last seven following a SU loss, while Seattle is just 1-4 ATS in its last five vs. the division. Wilson has thrown five INT's over his last three games, as regression on the offensive side is also under way in Seattle. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean the most to the home side. Lay the price for the outright, straight up win. This is a 10* NFC WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on the RAMS on the MONEY LINE. |
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11-15-20 | 49ers v. Saints UNDER 53 | 13-27 | Win | 100 | 151 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: I played this game early and have a very good number, but regardless, I love this play to fall well below the posted number once it's all said and done. For the most part I base my O/U picks on "situations" and "trends" (in every major North American sport.) The 49ers are essentially playing for the playoff lives here and clearly the last thing they can do is turn this into a "track meet" and expect to hang with the high-flying Saints. New Orleans on the other hand comes in off its sixth straight win, including a blowout victory over rival Tampa last weekend, so this sets up as a letdown spot for the home side. The picks: San Francisco's strength remains its defense, but New Orleans' unit is definitely underrated (additionally note that NO has seen the total go "under" the number in nine of its last 14 after five or more SU victories in a row.) For all the reasons above, look for this total to stay "under" at the end of the night. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER 49ers/Saints. |
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11-15-20 | Eagles v. Giants OVER 43 | 17-27 | Win | 100 | 148 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: Philadelphia leads the NFC East at 3-4-1 and it comes out of its bye week rested and prepared to increase its lead in the division at the New York Giants, who moved to 2-7 in the division after last week's 23-20 win over the Washington Football team. Previous to their bye week, the Eagles beat the Cowboys 23-9. While both teams have played to a few lower-scoring games in a row, I believe today's contest finally sets up as more of a "shootout." Situationally it definitely appears to be a high-scoring game to me, as these two QB's will clearly be given the green light to take over this game. The first game between the clubs this year featured plenty of yardage, but not much scoring. Look for that trend to end here, as I expect these two hungry clubs to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle sounds. The picks: Note as well that the total has gone "over" the number in six of the Giants last eight at home anyways, while it's also gone "over" in seven of these teams last ten vs. each other. Look for this total to sneak "over" as it comes down the stretch. This is an 8* TOTAL BLOWOUT on the OVER Philly/NY. |
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11-14-20 | UNLV +17 v. San Jose State | 17-34 | Push | 0 | 135 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: UNLV will try to get off the schneid after starting the season 0-3. Most recently the Rebels fell 40-27 to Fresno State this past weekend. QB Max Gilliam has four touchdowns through three games. SJSU on the other hand is 3-0 after an upset 28-17 win over SDSU on Saturday. The Spartans were double-digit dogs, but QB Nick Starkel and company somehow managed the upset. Starkel left the SDSU game with a hand injury though and his status is up in the air here. The picks: The Spartans have only allowed 14.7 PPG in the early going, but winning leads to complacency. With a game vs. Fresno State up next as well, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. SJSU backup QB Nick Nash is capable, but the Runnin Rebels are desperate here. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is an 8* BAIL-OUT BLOWOUT on UNLV. |
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11-14-20 | Nevada v. New Mexico +14 | 27-20 | Win | 100 | 131 h 2 m | Show | |
The set-up: The picks: This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on New Mexico. |
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11-14-20 | Fresno State v. Utah State +13 | Top | 35-16 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Fresno is 2-1 and Utah State is 0-3. Fresno lost 34-19 to Hawaii to open the year, but the Bulldogs have rebounded to beat two bad teams in UNLV and Colorado State. Utah State's competition has been much greater, having lost to Boise State, SDSU and Nevada. After the 34-9 loss to Nevada, head coach Gary Anderson was fired, with assistant head-coach Frank Maile now stepping in as interim. I think the Aggies will respond on the field of play to this coaching change. The picks: Utah State is also 11-4 ATS in its last 15 at home, while Fresno State is is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after back-to-back SU/ATS victories. No outright, but look for the coaching change to help motivate the home side here as they at they very least, take this one rigth down to the wire. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* MW GAME OF THE YEAR on Utah State. |
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11-13-20 | East Carolina +27.5 v. Cincinnati | Top | 17-55 | Loss | -117 | 121 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Does ECU have a shot at winning this game outright? Of course not. There's zero chance of that. Cincinnati has a favorable schedule and it appears to be on a mission. However, I think this is a great situational play, as I do think the Pirates will play hard on this nationally televised game, while I also fully expect the Bearcats to take the foot off the gas in the second half as they get ready for a much tougher game at UCF next weekend. Situationally, this one sets up great for the Pirates. The picks: Cincinnati has already blown out plenty of opponents this season and there's just zero reason for it do so again. We've reached the point of the season where it has to start looking ahead and I fully expect that to happen here. I base my picks on many things. Situations, trends, trying to go against public money/perception at times. For this one though, it's all about the overall situation that each team finds itself in coming into this one (it's also important to note that ECU is in fact 5-2 ATS in its last seven on the road as well.) Grab the points. This is a 10* U OF THE U on ECU. |
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11-12-20 | Colts +2.5 v. Titans | Top | 34-17 | Win | 100 | 83 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: The Colts come in off a 24-10 home loss to the Ravens, but I think they'll find a way to get past the "on again, off again" Titans on Thursday night. Tennessee ended a two-game skid with a tougher than expected 24-17 home win over the Bears last weekend. These teams played twice last year of course and the road team won each tame. I like Philip Rivers to bounce back here vs. this suspect Titans secondary. Overall Indy is averaging 26 points per game and allowing 20. The picks: Tennessee is averaging 29 PPG and it's conceding 25.1. The Titans are a poor 27th against the pass as well, allowing 275 yards per game. The Colts are third against the run, which is Tennessee's strength. I'm banking on Rivers being the difference maker here vs. this terrible Titans defense. That said, grab the points! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Indianapolis Colts. |
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11-12-20 | Colorado State v. Boise State UNDER 61 | Top | 21-52 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Boise State enters off a terrible 51-17 home blowout loss to BYU, while Colorado State enters off an upset 34-24 win over Wyoming on Thursday. These teams have met nine times and the Broncos have won all nine games. That includes last year's 31-24 victory in Fort Collins. Suffice it to say, I expect a similar final combined score here as well. Colorado State is 1-1. The Rams are somewhat "lucky" though, as they did allow 465 total yards of offense last week, but they managed to hold in the red zone somehow, while also forcing three Wyoming turnovers. The picks: The Broncos were forced to play with their third-string QB vs. BYU and it showed. Cade Fennegan finished with 187 yards and two TD's. Expect to see a heavy dose of the run game from the home side as it looks to alleviate the pressure from Fennegan. This one sets up as more of a "chess match" than a "shootout" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER CSU/Boise State. |
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11-11-20 | Eastern Michigan v. Ball State -7.5 | Top | 31-38 | Loss | -115 | 73 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: EMU opened with a 27-23 loss to Kent State, while Ball State lost 38-31 to Miami Ohio. Preston Hutchinson was 21 of 35 for the Eagles in his opener, throwing for 241 yards, two TD's and two INT's. EMU's weak point last year was its defense and I think the unit will predictably struggle on the road here in this difficult venue. The picks: Ball State had an interesting season last year, as it won only five games, but it was just eight points away from an eight win season. The Ball State defense is also poor, but the offense has been great, led by senior QB Drew Pitt, who had 309 passing yards, one TD and one INT in the opener. Ball State's balanced offense will be the difference maker in the end though, as Caleb Huntley had 132 rushing yards and two TD's in last week's setback on the ground. Pitt and the Cardinals have a huge experience edge. They're also playing at home. I like Ball State to put the foot on the gas and keep it there until the final whistle. Lay the points. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on Ball State. |
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11-10-20 | Akron v. Ohio UNDER 57.5 | Top | 10-24 | Win | 100 | 51 h 6 m | Show |
The set-up: Akron is coming off a 58-13 loss to WMU, while Ohio enters off a 30-27 setback to Central Michigan. Akron has lost two straight in this series. Last week Zach Gibson had 125 passing yards, one TD and one INT. The Zips struggled defensively last week, but the unit catches a bit of a break facing this run oriented Ohio offense. The picks: Bobcats' QB Kurtis Rourke had 231 passing yards and two TD's in last week's loss, while De'Montre Tuggle had 79 rushing yards and a TD. Ohio was caught flat-footed defensively last time out, but once again, the Bobcats defense catches a big break here facing this poor Akron offense. While the total went over in both team's first game of the year, and while the over has hit in the last three in this series, the overall circumstances finally point to a lower-scoring "under" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER in Akron/Ohio. |
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11-09-20 | Patriots v. Jets +7.5 | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 179 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I got down early and have an unfavorable line, but regardless, I like the Jets to at the very least, keep this one close enough to sneak in through the backdoor down the stretch. This is a big game for the Jets, who have an opportunity to get their first win of the year against the worst team they've faced all year, while also putting the final nail in the coffin for the Patriots playoff hopes. This is a monster "revenge" game as well for the Jets, who have lost eight straight in this series and nine of ten. Both teams have been terrible offensively and "OK" defensively. The picks: Darnold and the Jets have had to deal with several injuries, but I still think he's a better QB than Newton. Darnold won AFC Player of the week twice last season. Note as well that the Jets are 5-2 ATS in their last seven when playing at home to the Patriots. The outright is possible, but let's grab the points. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Jets. |
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11-08-20 | Seahawks v. Bills UNDER 52 | Top | 34-44 | Loss | -103 | 147 h 29 m | Show |
The set-up: Buffalo is 6-2 and Seattle is 6-1. This is an important non-conference contest for both teams, who look to maintain their leads in their division and conferences. The Seahawks have averaged 34.3 PPG and they've allowed 28.4. The Hawks have seen the total go "over" in several games this year, but note that they've seen the total dip "under" in ten of their last 13 after scoring 35 points or more in an ATS/SU win at home in their last outing. The picks: The Bills offense has regressed somewhat the last two weeks, and the defense has improved slightly. The result is 2-0 the last two games, most recently a 24-21 win over New England, in which Cam Newton fumbled the ball away in the final seconds with a chance for victory. Overall though the defense was great against Newton, holding him to 174 yards passing and no touchdowns. Buffalo averages 24.8 PPG and it allows 24.9. Buffalo has also seen the total go "under" in ten of its last 16 after B2B SU victories. This number is a tad high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Hawks/Bills. |
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11-08-20 | Bears v. Titans -6 | 17-24 | Win | 100 | 147 h 11 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Titans come in off a 31-20 setback to the Bengals last weekend, while the Bears lost 26-23 in OT to the Saints. The Bears offense is going to struggle to keep pace here in my opinion. So far Chicago has gotten great defensive play to keep it in games, but Tennessee averages 29.7 PPG and it only concedes 23. The picks: Chicago is also only 3-7 ATS in its last ten at home, while the Titans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after back-to-back SU losses. I love Tennessee here, as I expect Derrick Henry to set the ton early. Lay the points, expect a rout! This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on the Titans. |
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11-08-20 | Ravens v. Colts UNDER 48.5 | 24-10 | Win | 100 | 6 h 17 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Ravens are 5-2 and after this game they have contests vs. the Patriots, Titans and Steelers up next. The Colts on the other hand are tied with Tennessee for top spot in the AFC North after winning back to back games. Baltimore will be out to atone for last week's 28-24 loss to Pittsburgh. The Ravens will look to establish their run game today to try and alleviate a lot of the pressure of LaMar Jackson. The picks: Philip Rivers and the Colts face one of the best pass defenses they'll see all year, but Indianapolis also has a strong run game, led by Jordan Wilkins. The Colts are No. 5 against the pass and the Ravens are No. 2. With both teams looking to "run first," look for this total to stay well "under" once it's all said and done! This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Ravens/Colts. |
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11-07-20 | Western Kentucky +9.5 v. Florida Atlantic | 6-10 | Win | 100 | 129 h 38 m | Show | |
The set-up: WKU has lost three of its last four, but off a blowout loss to BYU, I like the Hilltoppers to comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch. FAU has had three games postponed due to Covid. It's been good in the early going, allowing only 13.3 PPG, but I think it comes out a bit flat to start here, and that's going to be the advantage we grab hold of and ride to a solid cover. Despite losing 41-10 to BYU, WKU had 166 rushing yards in the setback. QB Tyrell Pigrom had been great as well, as he has eight touchdowns and no interceptions. The picks: FAU enters off a 24-3 win over UTSA. Nick Tronti had 382 passing yards, three TD's and one INT on the year. Note though that FAU is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after holding a team to three points or less in a victory in its previous outing. I like the "hungrier" team to at least cover with the generous spread. This is a 9* UNDERDOG BEST OF THE BEST on WKU. |
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11-07-20 | Minnesota -7.5 v. Illinois | 41-14 | Win | 100 | 126 h 21 m | Show | |
The set-up: Minnesota is 0-2. Illinois is 0-2. Two teams enter, only one will leave with a victory. And that team will be the Gophers (and in resounding fashion!) Last year the Gophers annihilated the Illini 40-17 in this game and I expect a similar beatdown here. Last year Minnesota only lost two games total. Last time out Minnesota lost in OT to Maryland off a failed PAT. THe Gophers lost a lot of talent, but I like Tanner Morgan to help his team to bounce back here finally and get off the schneid. The picks: And here's the perfect team to do it against, as Illinois hasn't won a game since Nov. 23rd of last year. Overall the Illini allow 309 passing yards per game, which is second worst in the nation. QB Coran Taylor is a lone stand out on a poor team and I look for Minnesota to finally get untracked here (note as well that Illinois is just 2-5 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 280 passing yards in its previous game.) I'm laying the points and expecting a blowout. This is an 8* BLOWOUT on Minnesota. |
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11-07-20 | Houston +12 v. Cincinnati | 10-38 | Loss | -110 | 127 h 42 m | Show | |
The set-up: Cincinnati is 5-0 and Houston is 2-2. Clearly the Bearcats are the better team and I'm not going to try and convince you otherwise. Desmond Ridder leads an exciting and dynamic Bearcats offense and Cincinnati has also been great defensively. The Bearcats have a favorable remaining schedule as well, so a Championship berth is not out of the question if they can run the table. It's a shortened season, so it's definitely possible as well. The picks: Houston comes in under the radar though in my opinion (note that it's 4-1 ATS/SU in its last five on the road.) Houston fell apart in a loss to UCF last weekend. They also have a loss to BYU (43-26). They have big wins over Tulane (49-31) and Navy (37-21). I think the Bearcats take the foot off the gas in the second half. Expect a comfortable cover. This is a 9* COACH'S CORNER on Houston. |
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11-07-20 | Kansas v. Oklahoma UNDER 65.5 | Top | 9-62 | Loss | -117 | 127 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: The Sooners are out of their fourth straight win here. There's no reason to run up the score in the second half though. It's true these teams have been playing to some pretty high-scoring affairs of late, but I believe the overall situation that each school finds itself in coming into this contest will finally lead to a lower-scoring affair. Oklahoma smashed the Red Raiders 62-28 last weekend, but I don't expect a repeat performance here, despite the Jayhawks' issues on the defensive side of the ball. Kansas is looking to get off the schneid, entering at 0-6, and looking to atone for a poor 52-22 setback to No. 17 Iowa State last time out. The pick: Another situational factor that leads me to believe that Oklahoma will take the foot off the gas in the second half is scheduling. The Sooners enjoy their bye-week next week, before finishing off the season vs. Oklahoma State, at WVU and at Baylor. The total has also gone "under" in four of these teams last six in the series. I base my picks on many things, but my O/U selections are primarily based on "situations." This one meets several of my personal criteria. This number is high in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the UNDER Kansas/Oklahoma. |
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11-07-20 | Boston College v. Syracuse +14 | 16-13 | Win | 100 | 125 h 12 m | Show | |
The set-up: Syrause is a bad team, but I like it to sneak in through the back door down the stretch. Boston College almost beat Clemson last week and because of that "near miss," I think the Eagles come out a bit flat here (of course, Trevor Lawrence wasn't playing in that one.) Overall BC averages 27.6 points per game, while allowing 26.3. Syracuse comes in off a 38-14 home loss to Wake Forest. The Orange actually played decently against Clemson as well, and Syracuse was the first to intercept Lawrence in his Collegiate career. Overall the Orange only average 19 PPG, while conceding 13.3. The picks: Yes, BC is the better team here. But the situation favors the hungry underdog home side. With a game at home against Notre Dame in another nationally televised contest, I expect BC to take the foot off the gas as well in the second half if it does in fact have a lead. I'll grab the points and expect a solid back door cover. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on Syracuse. |
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11-06-20 | San Jose State +9.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 28-17 | Win | 100 | 108 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: San Jose State is 2-0 and I think it'll give the Aztecs a run for their money on Friday night. Most recently the Spartans topped New Mexico 38-21 last Saturday, covering the 13.5 point spread. SDSU is also 2-0 after its 38-7 win over Utah State. SDSU won this matchup 27-17 last year and it has in fact won seven straight in this series. Can anyone say "revenge factor?!" Nick Starkel had three TD passes for SJSU last weekend. He also ran two in. SJSU averages 27.5 PPG and it concedes 13.5. The picks: SDSU got two rushing TD's from Greg Bell last time out. The Aztecs actually outgained the hapless Aggies 570-215. Overall SDSU averages 36 points and it allows just 6.3. Both teams have faced lesser competition, but that changes this weekend. SJSU has made significant strides on both sides of the ball and I think it's being severely underestimated here by the oddsmakers. I like Starkel to keep this one competitive until the final moments. Grab the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on San Jose State. |
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11-05-20 | Wyoming v. Colorado State +3.5 | Top | 24-34 | Win | 100 | 84 h 25 m | Show |
The set-up: Wyoming is 1-1 after defeating Hawaii 31-7 last Thursday. Colorado State opened is season with a 38-17 loss to Fresno State. The silver-lining for the Rams was that they gained 372 yards on offense (unfortunately allowing 442 yards of their own.) Wyoming has to start the season with its backup QB in Levi Williams, who looked decent vs. a weak Warriors team last week. But it's still significant to note that the Cowboys are down signifcant pieces, including to starting quarterback Sean Chambers is out indefinitely with a fractured fibula. Others include RB Titus Swen and offensive lineman Alonzo Velazquez, while defensive end Garrett Crall is questionable. The picks: Colorado State will settle down here at home. The defense has a big opportunity to bounce back here as well. The offense though looked great in the dual QB system with Todd Centeio and Patrick O'Brien. This is definitely one of those cases where we should not "overreact" after the Week 1 results. Look for the Rams depth to be the difference here and I also expect a much better defensive effort. Outright is possible, but let's grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Colorado State. |
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11-05-20 | Packers v. 49ers UNDER 51 | Top | 34-17 | Push | 0 | 84 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams met twice last year and the 49ers won both games at home. The Packers have now lost two of their last three games and shoddy defensive play is to blame. Dalvin Cook torched the Packers on the ground last weekend for 226 yards and three touchdowns. Thankfully for Green Bay, it faces a depleted 49ers team this weekend. Aaron Rodgers continues to be a bright spot for Green Bay, as he has 20 touchdowns and only two interceptions. The picks: The 49ers lost 37-27 at Seattle last weekend. They also lost the services of their two best offensive players in TE George Kittle and QB Jimmy Garoppolo. Green Bay struggles against decent pass coverate and San Francisco has an elite pass covering unit. The last thing San Fran can do here is obviously try to turn this into a "shootout" and expect to win vs. Rodgers. This is a common sense play for sure, as in my opinion, everything points to more of a "chess match," than a "shootout." This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the UNDER Packers/49ers. |
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11-04-20 | Buffalo -9.5 v. Northern Illinois | Top | 49-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: Most of Buffalo's defense from last year returns. The unit would go on to give up less than three TD's in five of its last six games last year. NIU has QB Ross Bowers under center, but the Huskies are dealing with a huge turnover of players on both sides of the ball this season. Bower was sacked 18 times last year and he had more INT's than TD's. Buffalo is also 4-1 ATS the last five in this series. Buffalo also welcomes back its biggest offensive weapon in RB Jaret Patterson, who averaged 5.8 YPC last year. Buffalo QB Kyle Vantrease is also back, and he had 1,200 yards passing, eight touchdowns and only two interceptions. The picks: NIU is also only 3-8 ATS in its last 11 as an underdog, while Buffalo is 6-1 ATS in its last seven as a favorite. Buffalo had some issues with covid a few weeks ago, but I still think it'll easily pull away down the stretch vs. this Huskies team that is basically starting from scratch. I'm laying the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Buffalo. |
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11-02-20 | Bucs v. Giants +11 | Top | 25-23 | Win | 100 | 178 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: Tampa is probably the best team in the NFC. That said, it did lose to New Orleans in Week 1 and it faces the Saints next week at home, followed by another divisional contest at Carolina. This game vs. the Giants is important, but not nearly as much as the two contests on deck. New York on the other hand has had to deal with several on and off-field issues, but it's lost its last three games by three points or less and four of six by eight points or less. Clearly the Bucs are the better team, but I think they'll slow down in the second half if they have a lead, while I expect New York to fight tooth and nail until the final whistle. The pick: Tampa is also just 2-6 ATS in its last eight after scoring 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger victory in its last outing. Expect the hungry Giants to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the New York Giants. |
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11-01-20 | Raiders v. Browns UNDER 55.5 | Top | 16-6 | Win | 100 | 145 h 32 m | Show |
The set-up: I love this play. Both teams have come off some very high-scoring affairs, but I think that this game sets up as much more of a defensive affair finally. Las Vegas was just spanked 45-20 by the Bucs at home and it'll be out to get back to its winning ways, facing a Browns team which comes in off a 37-34 OT win over the Bengals, but which lost top WR Odell Beckham Jr. in the process. I expect the home side to get out and establish the run early and often here. Situationally, I believe this absolutely sets up as more of a "chess match," than a "run and gun shootout."Â The pick: Note as well that Cleveland has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring 35 points or more in a SU OT victory in its last outing, while Las Vegas has seen the total go "under" in seven of its last 11 after allowing 40 or more points in a 20 points or larger loss in its previous outing. This number is much too high. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the UNDER Vegas/Cleveland. |
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11-01-20 | Patriots v. Bills OVER 43.5 | 21-24 | Win | 100 | 144 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: Buffalo will be out to run up the score here in my estimation. This is the first of two games between these heated rivals. The total has dropped quite a bit in this one due to bad weather, but that can in fact work both ways. I'm not reading too much into that as I look for both sides to push the pace from the outset. New England QB Cam Newton is out to redeem himself as well after a few poor performances. The Bills are off a win over the Jets 18-10, kicking five field goals for the victory. These two offenses have been stuck in neutral the last few weeks, but I believe that changes in this pivotal contest. The pick: Note as well that New England has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 11 after scoring seven or less points in a loss in its previous outing (lost 33-6 to San Fran), while Buffalo has seen the total fly "over" in 14 of its last 21 after being held without an offensive TD in its previous outing. This one has "shootout" written all over it! This is an 8* O/U PLAY-BOOK on the OVER Patriots/Bills. |
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11-01-20 | Colts -2.5 v. Lions | 41-21 | Win | 100 | 142 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Colts are off their bye week and they catch a Lions teach which has won two straight. The Colts are a huge step up on the defensive side for Detroit here though and I think it'll struggle with offensive consistency this week. Philip Rivers looked great two weeks ago, coming from behind to knock off the Bengals on the road, throwing for 380 yards and three touchdowns. The Lions secondary has been suspect as well, so I love a rested Rivers to have a big game on the road here. The pick: Detroit is still just 5-12 ATS in its last 17 overall as well, while Indianpolis is 6-2 ATS in its last eight following a SU win and coming out of its bye-week. I'm laying the points, I'm expecting a blowout. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Indianapolis Colts. |
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10-31-20 | Mississippi State +32 v. Alabama | 0-41 | Loss | -108 | 146 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. The pick: Note that Mississippi State is 6-1 ATS in its last seven following a double-digit home loss, while Alabama is 2-8 ATS in its last ten following an ATS win. Alabama gets caught looking ahead to its bye week here, so grab the points! This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on Mississippi State. |
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10-31-20 | Texas +3 v. Oklahoma State | Top | 41-34 | Win | 100 | 143 h 33 m | Show |
The set-up: The pick: This is a 10* GAME OF THE YEAR on Texas. |
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10-31-20 | Appalachian State v. UL-Monroe OVER 56 | 31-13 | Loss | -110 | 8 h 14 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. The pick: The "over" has hit in four of these teams last five vs. each other and I expect that strong trend to continue here. This number is low, the play is the over! This is a 9* SITUATIONAL TOP TOTAL on the OVER App State/Louisiana Monroe. |
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10-31-20 | Iowa State v. Kansas +28.5 | 52-22 | Loss | -110 | 139 h 36 m | Show | |
The set-up: I like to wait to write my analysis until as close to game time as possible, as that allows all last information to come in. Today though I'm having major internet problems, so will not be able to give my full and proper analysis. I apologize for that, but I'm unable to access most of the information that I normally have access too. The pick: Iowa State is just 3-7 ATS in its last ten as a 25 points or higher favorite on the road and coming off a SU/ATS loss. I'm grabbing the points! This is an 8* LIVE DOG DESTRUCTION on Kansas. |
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10-29-20 | Falcons +3 v. Panthers | Top | 25-17 | Win | 100 | 81 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Atlanta is out of the playoff picture, but it's still trying to win games. These teams played in Week 5 and the Panthers scored the 23-16 victory, so this is also a revenge game as well. Atlanta comes in off a 23-22 loss to Detroit last time out, a heartbreaker which I think it'll boune back from here. Overall Atlanta is averaging 26.3 PPG and it's allowing 29.6. The pick: Carolina is averaging 23.1 points per game and it's allowing 24. The Panthers have lost two in a row now and I think their offense will have a hard time keeping up with Atlanta and Julio Jones, who was not playing in the Week 5 contest. Carolina is also just 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven at home, while the Falcons are 6-1 against the spread in their last seven as a road underdog. Atlanta has played better than its 1-6 record and I expect it to avenge the earlier Week 5 loss today. That said, grab the points! This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the Atlanta Falcons. |
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10-26-20 | Bears v. Rams OVER 45.5 | Top | 10-24 | Loss | -112 | 151 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: Neither team has played to many high-scoring games this year, but I look for this Monday night contest to be more of a wide-open affair. The Bears continue to win, they most recently got past Carolina 23-16. LA had won three in a row before a 24-16 loss at San Francisco last weekend. Both teams only ask their QB's to "manage" games, so Jared Goff and Nick Foles are a wash here. These are two "gun slingers" though who will be given the green light to air it out on the national stage. The pick: Strong run games and strong defenses are what define these clubs in the early going, but note that Chicago has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after back-to-back SU/ATS victories, while LA has seen the total go "over" in ten of its last 16 after a loss in which it score 17 or less points in. I expect this total to fly over sooner, rather than later. This is a 10* TOTAL BLOOD-BATH on the OVER Bears/Rams. |
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10-25-20 | Seahawks v. Cardinals +3.5 | 34-37 | Win | 100 | 127 h 16 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have done well this year. The Hawks are 5-0 and the Cardinals are 4-2. If you look at each team's schedule though, neither team has played any tough games yet. Seattle's wins have come over team's with a combined 9-21 record. Arizona has played teams with a combined 11-21 record. For the first time this season these teams are truly going to be tested here. Seattle's defense has been poor for sure this season and it's "lucky" that it escaped with a 27-26 win at home over the Vikes two weeks ago. The pick: Arizona comes in off its most complete performance of the year in a 38-10 win over the Cowboys last weekend. I think this sets up perfectly for the Cards here. Divisional contests are always the most important and they almost always mean more to the home side. I'm grabbing the points, but won't be shocked by an outright upset either. This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Arizona Cardinals. |
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10-25-20 | Jaguars +9 v. Chargers | 29-39 | Loss | -125 | 123 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: Both teams have been poor. The Chargers come in off their bye-week and I expect them to be a step behind the Jaguars today. Gardner Minshew and company have nothing to lose here and this one has all the makings of a much more competitive affair than what this spread would suggest. The pick: I give the nod to Minshew over the Chargers' Justin Herbert as well. Note as well that the LA is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine following its bye week and after three or more SU losses. Expect the Jaguars to do more than enough to comfortably sneak in through the back door with the large spread they've been afforded here. This is an 8* play on the Jacksonville Jaguars. |
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10-25-20 | Bucs v. Raiders UNDER 53.5 | Top | 45-20 | Loss | -108 | 123 h 0 m | Show |
The set-up: This was originally going to be the Sunday Night game, but there were a couple Covid related issues which caused the league to delay this game and then re-schedule to an afternoon slot. Regardless, Tampa looks to build off its big win at home over the Packers, holding Aaron Rodgers without a touchdown, along with forcing three interceptions. THe last thing Tampa wants to do though is turn this into a shootout with the Raiders, who upset the Chiefs 40-32 in their last outing. Tampa's defense is elite and the run game is starting to fire on all cylinders. Look for Brady to be more a game manager than gun-slinger today. The pick: Finally note that the Raiders have seen the total go "under" the number in eight of their last 11 after their bye and after scoring 40 or more points in a victory in their previous outing. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Bucs/Raiders. |
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10-25-20 | Packers v. Texans +3.5 | 35-20 | Loss | -105 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the Texans have a legitimate shot at winning this game outright. The Packers looked pretty ordinary in their beatdown loss in Tampa last weekend. Clearly Aaron Rodgers will have a better game here, however Houston won't be lacking for motivation here after its first win of the year over Jacksonville last time out. The Packers strength of schedule definitely has to be called into question here. While Rodgers is off his worst start of his career, the Texans' DeShaun Watson is off his best start of the season. These teams are moving in different directions. The pick: Houston has played the much tougher schedule as well to this point and it faces a difficult road schedule up next. Their season is on the line, I like the Texans to at the very least, sneak in through the back door down the stretch. This is an 8* play on the Houston Texans. |
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10-25-20 | Bills v. Jets +13.5 | 18-10 | Win | 100 | 120 h 57 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bills come in off a 26-17 loss to Kansas City, a Chiefs team which was coming off its second loss of the year in a poor effort at home to the Raiders. Now they face a Jets team desperate to get off the schneid at home and which welcomes back starting QB Sam Darnold. The pick: Buffalo has a game at home vs. division rival New England next week, followed by a visit from league-leading Seattle. Can anyone say "look-ahead spot?!" The numbers on paper favor Buffalo, but the overall situation definitely favors the hungry Jets. New York isn't going to go 0-16 SU/ATS this season and this is its best chance yet for a straight-up victory. That said, let's grab the points! This is an 8* play on the New York Jets. |
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10-24-20 | UNLV +13.5 v. San Diego State | Top | 6-34 | Loss | -105 | 106 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: UNLV finished last in the Mountain West last year, going 4-8 overall and 2-6 in league play. The Rebels only won four games, but two of those wins came right at the end of the year. SDSU was second in the Mountainwest last year, going 10-3 and 5-3. UNLV QB Kenyon Oblad will have his hands full in this difficult venue, but he does come in with much more experience and with his top three wide receivers from last year. The pick: The Aztecs have a new QB in Carson Baker this season, last year he made just 24 passes. SDSU also has a new starting RB in Chance Bell. SDSU was No. 2 in the nation defensively last year, but the unit also had some turnover this year. With a game at Utah State on Halloween Night up next, I think the home side takes the foot off the gas in the second half, leaving the back door wide open for Oblad and company. Grab as many points as you can. This is a 10* MOUNTAIN-WEST GAME OF THE YEAR on UNLV. |
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10-24-20 | Florida Atlantic +17 v. Marshall | 9-20 | Win | 100 | 98 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think Marshall gets caught looking past lowly FAU today. Marshall is ranked No. 22 in the country with a 4-0 record. Last time out it beat Louisiana Tech 35-17. The Thundering Herd have also had two other games postponed due to Covid 19 issues. FAU has only played one game so far this year, a 21-17 victory over Charlotte. The Owls have had to deal with sevreal Covid related issues as well. FAU is led by the dynamic play of dual-threat QB Nick Tronti. The pick: Marshall though is just 2-6 ATS in its last eight following a 15 points or greater victory in which it also covered the spread, while FAU is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after playing with two or more weeks of rest. I like the well rested Owls to sneak in through the back door down the stretch, after Marshall takes the foot off the gas in the second half. Grab the points. This is an 8* ULTIMATE DESTRUCTION on FAU. |
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10-24-20 | Rutgers +13.5 v. Michigan State | 38-27 | Win | 100 | 95 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: Michigan State defeated Rutgers 27-0 as a 22-point favorite last year, but MSU has a new coach and a new QB and it has plenty of new faces on both sides of the ball. The Spartans lost almost all of their offensive talent from last season's team which struggled with offensive consistency. The pick: Rutgers was dead last in the Big Ten last year, but it returns seven starters on offense and eight on defense. Quarterback Noah Vedral doesn't have a lot of experience, but the transfer is decent and is a true dual threat. I look for MSU to get caught looking past its opponent. No outright, but closer than expected. Grab the points. This is an 8* play on Rutgers. |
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10-24-20 | Georgia Southern +6.5 v. Coastal Carolina | 14-28 | Loss | -105 | 95 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: CC has a target on its back as the only undefeated team in the Sun Belt. Georgia Southern won this game 30-27 last year. Georgia Southern comes in on top form as well after back-to-back wins, most recently routing UMass 41-0. Georgia Southern is ranked fourth in the country in rushing. JD King has 423 rushing yards so far. CC comes in off a 30-27 win over a ranked Louisiana team. Note though that CC's run defense gave up nearly 300 rushing yards in that one. The pick: Georgia Southern is 6-2 ATS in its last eight as a road underdog in the +5.5 to +7.5 range and after back-to-back victories. I think Georgia Southern's strong running game is the difference here. Grab the points. This is an 8* play on Georgia Southern. |
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10-24-20 | NC State v. North Carolina -16.5 | 21-48 | Win | 100 | 95 h 18 m | Show | |
The set-up: UNC is looking to lay a beating on NC State after a poor performance in Tallahassee. The Wolfpack are now ranked 23rd after three straight wins, including a 31-20 win over Duke last time out. NC State is led by the dynamic polay of QB Devin Leary, but he's now out for the rest of the season after breaking his fibula late in last week's victory. The pick: Florida State had a 31-7 lead over UNC, before the Tar Heels finally fell 31-28. Mack Browns team has all the pieces to bounce back big at home though, led by Heisman Trophy candidate Sam Howell. The Tar Heels are 5-1 ATS their last six at home as well, while the Wolfpack are just 2-8 ATS in their last ten on the road. This is an 8* play on UNC. |
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10-23-20 | Dodgers v. Rays +1.5 | Top | 6-2 | Loss | -117 | 37 h 17 m | Show |
The set-up: Charlie Morton has arguably been the best pitcher in all of the MLB playoffs this year. Walker Buehler has been sharp as well for the Dodgers. Their numbers are very similar and it would not be difficult to write a convincing argument for either starting pitcher to come out on top here. That means that these starters are a "wash" in my books and in a case like that, I think the value swings to the undervalued underdog. The pick: These clubs are very similar. They each possess amazing hitting talent and each is filled with competent bullpen pitching. In a contest which I see being decided late or in extra innings, I'm going to lay the very reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE. |
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10-23-20 | Illinois v. Wisconsin -19 | Top | 7-45 | Win | 100 | 80 h 51 m | Show |
The set-up: Wisconsin plays with revenge here after falling 24-23 to Illinois as a 30-point favorite last season. The Badgers lost their next game after that setback as well to Ohio State last season, but overall the Badgers had another great year. Wisconsin is without the services of starting QB Jack Coan, meaning that Graham Mertz will have his shot at proving himself tonight on the national stage. Wisconsin also doesn't have Jonathan Taylor running the ball anymore, but Nakia Watson is expected to fill in seamlessly. The pick: Brandon Peters is back under center for Illinois this year, but most of the pieces he had around him last season have moved on. Peters only completed 55 percent of his passes last season. Illinois' best player is likely kicker James McCourt. Note though that the home side is 4-0 ATS the last four in this series, while Illinois is 0-5 ATS in its last five "Friday night" contests. Look for the Badgers' superior defense to be the difference maker for us down the stretch, as I expect the home side to keep the foot on the gas, even if it has a large lead in the second half. Lay the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on Wisconsin. |
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10-22-20 | Giants v. Eagles UNDER 45.5 | Top | 21-22 | Win | 100 | 85 h 15 m | Show |
The set-up: These teams play in a horrible division and despite the Eagles being 1-4-1 and the Giants being 1-5, both still mathematically have a shot at winning the title. Philly is winless at home and New York is winless at home. The Eagles did win both matchups last year. New York posted its first win of the year last week in a 20-19 victory over Washington. That was despite being outgained 337 to 240. QB Daniel Jones was an unremarkable 12 of 19 for 112 yards. He has three TD's and six INT's this season. New York is 31st in the NFL in rushing as well. The pick: The Eagles come in off a slim loss to the Ravens. Philadelphia has been competitive in defeat and I expect it to look to control this game from the outset. Wentz is only averaging 233.5 YPG and he has a career low completion percentage of 58.7. Both teams are struggling offensively and each has been decent defensively. Look for the short week to amplify those trends and look for this total to stay well under once it's all said and done. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Giants/Eagles. |
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10-22-20 | Arkansas State v. Appalachian State -10 | Top | 17-45 | Win | 100 | 84 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Arkansas State is 1-1 after a 59-52 win as a 3.5 point favorite against Georgia State last weekend. The Red Wolves though allowed 583 total yards of offense. Arkansas State enters first among the ten teams in the Sun Belt by averaging 496 yards of offense per game, but it's also dead last on the defensive end, allowing 481.8 yards. The pick: So far the MOuntaineers are 2-1 this season. App State has been off since September 26th and I expect the Mountaineers to come out and run the Red Wolves off the field with their superior play on both ends of the field. So far App State is averaging 31.3 PPG and it's conceding only 19.3. The Mountaineers have plenty of returning talent from last year and I think the extra time off just adds fuel to the fire for the home side. Conversely, after their last loss, I expect the Red Wolves to come out flat-footed here. I'm laying the points and expecting a rout. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on App State. |
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10-21-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 6-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 5 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Rays in Game 1 on the run line and while that one came up short, I do definitely believe that Tampa offers great value to bounce back in Game 2. Blake Snell has been of the best pitchers in all of MLB over the last two years and I look for the Rays' ace to deliver a solid six or seven innings. The Dodgers are going to have to use their bullpen to get the job done in Game 2. This highly favors Snell and the Rays in this come back spot. The pick: Including the three games it needed to win in a row over the Braves, LA has now won four straight games. I don't expect the Dodgers to win a fifth here. Look for Tampa's depth and experience in the starting pitching role to be the difference in this one, but just in case, lay the extra juice for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance. This is a 10* TOP PLAY on the Rays on the RUN LINE. |
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10-20-20 | Rays +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 3-8 | Loss | -140 | 37 h 50 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams had difficulties in their League Championship Series victories and because of the way it played out for each team, I do indeed feel that Game 1 sets up nicely for Tyler Glasnow and the Rays. Tampa crushed all competition in the regular season to earn the AL title, while LA did the same in the Senior Circuit. These teams are very evenly matched, as they possess fantastic starting pitching and top notch bullpens. Their line-ups are also deep and talented. I do think that the Dodgers are a "fan favorite" though and this larger inflated line takes that into account. The pick: But as I mentioned above, situationally I think it sets up well for the Rays. Tampa went up 3-0 on the Astros and then lost three straight, before finally getting its act together and calmly coming away with the Game 7 victory. It was different for the Dodgers though, who went down 3-1 and then had to win three straight. After that emotional come back and with a few extra days off, I believe that the Dodgers come out flat in Game 1. Outright victory?! Of course, but I'm going to lay the reasonable price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance, as this contest could easily see extra frames. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the RAYS on the RUN-LINE. |
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10-19-20 | Cardinals v. Cowboys UNDER 55.5 | 38-10 | Win | 100 | 33 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Cardinals only allow 20.4 PPG. This is a historically awful Cowboys defense, but that unit catches a bit of a break this week facing this more conservative Cardinals offense. The Cowboys though I think will have much difficulty in trying to replicate their offensive numbers moving forward without Dak Prescott under center. Andy Dalton doesn't have the stamina that his younger counterpart has, so I expect the veteran's performance to wane as the game goes on. From a situational stand point, this one definitely sets up as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Note as well that Arizona has seen the total go "under" in four of its last five games overall. Expect each offense to try and establish the run early and look for this total to stay "under" once it's all said and done. This is an 8* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Cards/Cowboys. |
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10-19-20 | Chiefs v. Bills +5 | 26-17 | Loss | -109 | 30 h 7 m | Show | |
The set-up: Yes, the Bills lost terribly on Tuesday night in Tennessee. Previous to that Buffalo had gone 4-0. The scheduling of that game though likely played havoc with the Bill chemistry and I expect a much better performance here at home on Monday night. The Chiefs looked pretty darn ordinary in their home loss last time out. Both teams sport similar numbers, both offensively and defensively, but I believe that this one sets up well from a situational stand point for the home side. KC is in Denver next weekend, while the Bills are at the Jets. The pick: The numbers/stats are working in our favor as well, as note that Buffalo is 7-2 ATS in its last nine conference home games as a 4-points or greater underdog. I think this one comes down to whichever of these two hungry teams has its hands on the ball last. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the Buffalo Bills. |
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10-19-20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers v. Leeds United OVER 2.5 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -100 | 28 h 19 m | Show |
The set-up: Leeds was last in action vs. Man City two weeks ago and it left with a 1-1 draw. Rodrigo Moreno scored in the second half to tie it up. Wolverhampton last beat Fulham 1-0 before the break off a goal from Pedro Neto. These clubs last met back in 2018 and the Wanderers scord the 3-0 victory. The pick: Leeds is back in the top flight league and it's come out and impressed early with its impressive attack. Expect nothing less again here, especially with an extra week off from the International break. With the home side pushing the pace, Wolverhampton is going to have to get out of its comfort zone as well. This one has "over" written all over it! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the OVER Leeds/Wolverhampton. |
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10-18-20 | Rams -3 v. 49ers | Top | 16-24 | Loss | -120 | 124 h 14 m | Show |
The set-up: The 49ers have ben ravaged by injury early. Jimmy Garopolo only played a half in last week's 43-17 loss to the Dolphins, but he's expected to start this week. San Francisco though still has many holes on both sides of the ball. The Rams are 4-1 and they're playing exceptional defense right now, allowing only 18 points and 330 yards of total offense per game. If San Francisco has troubles moving the ball on the Fish, I can't see it having much luck in this divisional contest vs. this elite defense. The Rams have also gotten great play from Jared Goff, who has limited the turnovers in the early going. The pick: San Francisco is just 1-6 ATS in its last seven after allowing more than 250 passing yards in its previous game as well, while the Rams are 4-0 ATS in their last four road games vs. a team with a losing record. This one has lop-sided "blowout" written all over it. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Rams. |
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10-18-20 | Bengals +8 v. Colts | 27-31 | Win | 100 | 117 h 55 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Bengals are 1-3-1 after a 27-3 loss to Baltimore. Remember, the Browns lost 34-6 to Baltimore in Week 1, but since then Baker Mayfield and the Browns have averaged almost 40 PPG. I'm not saying that's what's going to happen here for Joe Burrow and company, I'm just making a point that the Ravens defense is pretty damn good. The Colts have looked great at times and poor in others. Last week they looked bad in a 32-23 road loss to the Cleveland Browns. Nine of those points that the Browns scored came off of Philip Rivers turnovers as well. I think Indianapolis is overrated to this point and I like the hungrier home side to keep this one a lot closer than what this spread would suggest. The pick: The Bengals are 7-2 ATS in their last nine off an ATS loss and as home dog of 7 points or more, while the Colts are just 2-6 ATS in their last eight after an ATS loss of ten or more point in which they were the favorite. Indy gets caught looking ahead to its bye week next weekend and leaves the back door open in the second half. Outright is possible, but grab the points in the end. This is an 8* UPSET DESTROYER on the Bengals. |
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10-18-20 | Browns v. Steelers -3.5 | 7-38 | Win | 100 | 117 h 54 m | Show | |
The set-up: This is a big game for both teams. The Browns looked good last week at home vs. the Colts to move to 4-1, but they struggled in Week 1 on the road vs. Baltimore and its elite defense. Now they hit the road for an important divisional contest vs. the red hot Steelers, who are among the league leaders on the defensive end. Both teams have done well offensively, but until Mayfield can win a big game on the road in a hostile environment, I am not convinced he actually can. The pick: The Browns strength is their run game, but Nick Chubb is now out with injury. Cleveland's weakness is its defense, which doesn't bode well facing red hot Ben Roethlisberger. It's been reported that Mayfield has a minor injury today as well and will play through it. This one sets up beautifully for a home side blowout. Lay the points. This is an 8* SITUATIONAL ATS BEATDOWN on the Pittsburgh Steelers. |
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10-17-20 | Braves v. Dodgers UNDER 8 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 26 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 of this series is the only contest that has gone "under" the number. After playing to four straight "overs," though, I think this Game 6 sets up as more of a "duel." We have the Game 1 starting pitchers squaring off here and that's significant. Max Fried has a 2.65 ERA and 18 K's over 17 playoff innings of work so far, while Walker Buehler has gone 1-1 with a 2.43 ERA in 48 career playoff innings for the Dodgers. The pick: Note that ATL has seen the total go "under" the number in five of its last six after allowing seven or more runs in a three runs or greater loss in its previous outing, while the Dodgers have seen the total go "under" in eight of their last 12 after playing to four or more consecutive "overs." This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOP TOTAL on the UNDER Braves/Dodgers. |
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10-17-20 | Auburn -159 v. South Carolina | Top | 22-30 | Loss | -159 | 95 h 35 m | Show |
The set-up: Auburn won 30-28 as a 13.5 point favorite vs. Arkansas last weekend. South Carolina enters off a 41-7 road win over lowly Vanderbilt. Auburn has already beaten a tough Kentucky team 29-13 in its opener, before then falling to Georgia 27-6. It concedes only 22.7 PPG, but so far has only managed 21.7 PPG. That's due in large part to the level of competition it's faced in the early going though. I like Bo Nix to have a big game here. Last week Nix had 187 passing yards and a touchdown, along with 30 rushing yards and another major score. The pick: South Carolina comes in off its first win of the year and a letdown is imminent in my opinion. Collin Hill now faces the stiffest defense he's seen all year and I expect him to predictably struggle. While this is a money line wager, I still think it's significant to note that South Carolina is just 1-3-1 ATS in its last five at home, while Auburn is 8-1 ATS in its last nine road games vs. a team with a losing records. Auburn had a sub-par game against Arkansas and still managed to win. I think the Tigers are undervalued here. This is a 10* MONEY-LINE BLOWOUT on Auburn. |
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10-17-20 | Kentucky +6 v. Tennessee | 34-7 | Win | 100 | 93 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: Kentucky has been playing well and I think it'll take this one down to the wire. The Wildcats enter off a 24-2 win over Mississippi State, including posting six interceptions. The Vols enter off a disheartening 44-21 loss to Georgia and I expect them to get caught flat-footed here as well. Quarterback Jarrett Guarantano turned the ball over three times. The pick: I think Wildcats' QB Terry Wilson is going to have a big day here. He had 463 yards passing with two touchdowns, along with 221 rushing yards and three more TD's on the ground. The Vols are also just 2-7 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater road loss in their previous outing. With Alabama coming to town next weekend, this also sets up as a "look ahead" spot for the home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting a "nail biter!" This is an 8* ROUT on Kentucky. |
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10-16-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | Top | 7-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: While the first five games of this series have gone "under" the number, I think that Game 6 is going to fly over the total sooner, rather than later. Both teams have struggled at the plate and each of these starters has been sharp so far in the playoffs. It would be "easy" to write a convincing argument for another "under," but the value has now swung the other way. The pick: As note that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after playing to four or more straight "unders," while also coming off a victory in its previous outing, while Tampa has seen the total eclipse the posted number in 14 of its last 21 after playing to five or more straight "unders" in a row. Expect these offenses to be the main storylines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* PLAYOFF TOTAL OF THE YEAR on the OVER Astros/Rays. |
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10-16-20 | SMU v. Tulane +7 | Top | 37-34 | Win | 100 | 77 h 54 m | Show |
The set-up: SMU enters out of its bye week. Tulane fell 49-31 to Houston last weekend. This is a revenge game for the Green Wave after falling 37-20 to the Mustangs in the final game of the regular season for each team last year. SMU QB Shane Buechele has gone 105 passes without throwing a pick for SMU. The Mustangs average 44 PPG and they allow just 23.3. But with a game at home against leading Cincinnati next weekend, there's no question that this sets up as a classic "look ahead" spot for Buechele and the Mustangs. The pick: The Green Wave offense stalled last weekend. The defense was sharp in forucing five turnovers. Michael Pratt was making his first start of his career and he has 141 passing yards and a touchdown. Tulane relies mostly on the run game on offense anyways though and so far it's averaging 37 PPG, while allowing 31. The Green Wave are also 6-1 ATS in their last seven following an ATS loss and 5-0 ATS as a home dog, while the Mustangs are just 1-5 ATS in their last six on the road. No outright, but down to the wire. Grab the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on Tulane. |
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10-15-20 | Dodgers v. Braves +1.5 | 2-10 | Win | 131 | 13 h 24 m | Show | |
The set-up: I have a wager on the Braves to win the World Series, placed five months before the season started. I like their chances here to bounce back from yesterday's 15-3 loss. Clayton Kershaw has been great in the regular season and during the playoffs, but he's still a pedestrian 11-11 with a 4.57 ERA lifetime in the post-season. The pick: Bryse Wilson was 1-0 with a 4.02 ERA in the regular season, but he made two starts and gave up one run over eight innings with a 1.13 ERA. Clearly the Braves will move quickly to their deep bullpen if needed here. That's expected. There's a chance Kershaw might not go, in which case LA would likely turn to Dustin May, who was 3-1 with a 2.57 ERA. If Kershaw does go, he's not throwing at 100% effectiveness. If May starts, it's not the most ideal situation as he'll have little time to prepare. Yes, the Dodgers bats have looked great the last two games, but Atlanta has been one of the best so far in making game to game adjustments and I completely expect that here now after yesterday's blowout. The outright is possible, but in the end let's grab the extra 1.5 runs of insurance and still get a plus-money pay-out! This is an 8* HOME-RUN CLUB on the Braves RUN-LINE. |
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10-15-20 | Georgia State +4 v. Arkansas State | Top | 52-59 | Loss | -114 | 55 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: Last season Georiga State upset Arkansas State 52-38 as a 6.5-point underdog and I think it has a legitimate shot at winning this contest outright as well. The Panthers opened the season with a 34-31 OT loss to Louisiana-Lafayette and then had their next contest postponed. On OCtober 3rd they beat ACC foe East Carolina 49-29 as a two-point underdog. Georgia State won the yardage battle 485-286. Cornelious Brown has four touchdowns and three INT's, but the Panthers have averaged 40 PPG, while allowing 31.5. The pick: Arkansas State enters off a 50-27 win over FCS opponent Central Arkansas. The Red Wolves won the yardage battle 573 to 411. Arkansas State utilizes two quarterbacks this year in Layne Hatcher and Logan Bonner. The Red Wolves though are 0-3 in their last three as a favorite vs. an FBS opponent, while Georgia State enters with a 6-3 ATS record out of its last nine when playing the role of underdog. The Panthers secondary already has five interceptions, so I think the Red Wolves have a difficult time moving the ball today. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* ATS BLOOD-BATH on Georgia State. |
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10-15-20 | Rays -142 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -142 | 6 h 10 m | Show |
The set-up: The Astros held on for a 4-3 win on Wednesday, but I like the Rays to bounce back here with Blake Snell on the mound. Whoever gets the call for Houston here is going to be at a major disadvatage. The Rays primarily left-throwing bullpen is doing well against the Astros primarily righty hitting line-up. The pick: The Rays have allowed just 3.3 RPG in the playoffs. This play though is based almost entirely upon Snell, who earned a win in Game 1 of the ALCS, holding the Astros to one run off six hits over five innings. Houston has struggled against left-handed starters like Snell and I expect that trend to continue here. The Rays have the advantage in the starting pitching department and in the bullpen and I think those factors combine here to deliver a victory for them in Game 5. Lay the price with confidence. This is a 10* DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Rays. |
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10-14-20 | Rays v. Astros OVER 8 | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -101 | 14 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: The first three games of this series have fallen "under" the number, but all signs point to Game 4 going "over." The Astros have their backs against the wall, but I don't expect them to go down quietly in this series. The Rays are still averaging 4.2 RPG and hitting 1.9 home runs per contest in the playoffs. And that's bad news for Astros' veteran starter Zack Greinke, who is a pedestrian 3-6 with a 4.21 ERA in 18 playoff starts. Tyler Glasnow is 2-0 for the Rays in the playoffs, despite a 4.05 ERA. The pick: Note as well that Houston has seen the total go "over" the number in eight of its last 12 after three or more losses in a row. Expect these two talented offenses to be the main story lines in tomorrow's summaries. This is a 10* TOTAL DESTRUCTION on the OVER Rays/Astros. |
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10-14-20 | Coastal Carolina +7.5 v. UL-Lafayette | Top | 30-27 | Win | 100 | 31 h 36 m | Show |
The set-up: The Ragin Cajun's blew the Chanticleers away in last year's 48-7 win, but I expect Coastal Carolina to be much more competitive this season. The Chanticleers went 5-7 last year. This season they're 3-0. Eight starters returned to the offensive side of the ball and in the early going they're averaging 44.3 PPG. CC had 38 in a win over Kansas to open the season. Grayson McCall had 322 yards and four TD's last week. Last year CC allowed 33.2 PPG, this season it's conceding just 22.3. The pick: UL Lafayette hasn't played since September 26th because of Covid issues. The Ragin Cajuns went 11-3 last year and they're 3-0 this season. In their last game they held on for a 20-18 victory over Georgia Southern. GSU had 447 yards of offense, including 192 on the ground. Overall the Cajuns average 28.3 PPG this season. Coastal Carolina is 7-1 ATS in its last eight road games vs. a team with a winning home record though and 5-1 ATS in its last six following a straight-up win of more than 20 points, while Louisiana is 0-4 ATS in its last four conference contests. Revenge is on CC's mind here and while the outright is possible, in the end I'm grabbing up the ample points! This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on Coastal Carolina. |
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10-14-20 | Dodgers -170 v. Braves | 15-3 | Win | 100 | 11 h 29 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the Dodgers aren't going to get swept and if they're going to get back into this series, then this is the game. Kyle Wright had a poor regular season for the Braves and a great playoffs. Atlanta is on fire, but the Dodgers haven't lost three games all year and they didn't finish in first in the National League for no reason. Julio Urias and Wright are a "wash," but I think the now desperate visiting side is the correct call. The pick: And the numbers back us up, as ALT is still oly 18-35 the last 53 in this series, while the Dodgers are 7-2 in their last nine after back-to-back losses. The Dodgers lost 8-7 in Game 2, rallying late, but just coming up short. Look for LA to come back here and ride that late momentum to a solid iwin in Game 3. Lay the price with confidence. This is an 8* HOME-RUN CLUB on the LA Dodgers. |
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10-13-20 | Rays -105 v. Astros | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 37 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the Rays in Game 1. I lost with the "over" in Game 2. I think that the lefty Yarbrough though has the advantage over his counterpart Urquidy. Yes Houston has a left plenty of men on base over the first two games, but that's just a testament to the Rays adept bullpen, which is filled with lefties. The Rays have the advantage in almost every respect in this contest and the motivation to knock off the "cheating" Astros is incredibly high. The pick: Additionally note that Tampa is 7-2 in its last nine after back-to-back victories. Houston snuck into the playoffs because of the expanded format, while Tampa won the American League. This line is way off, hammer it and expect a blowout! This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the Tampa Bay Rays. |
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10-13-20 | Bills v. Titans UNDER 53 | Top | 16-42 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 9 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are undefeated. Playing during the pandemic is weird enough for these players, but having to shift their schedule to play on Tuesday night is unprecedented. I think this will effect offensive chemistry from both sides. Both teams defensive numbers are in the middle of the pack, but I look for each side's offense to concentrate on establishing the run. Strictly from a situational stand point, I think this one definitely sets up nicely as a lower-scoring affair. The pick: Note though that the "under" has hit in four of these teams last five in the series. Tennessee has seen the total go "under" in eight of its last 12 after its bye week (while not technically its official bye, Tennessee did not play last weekend due to covid issues), while Buffalo has seen the total dip below the number in ten of its last 15 after three or straight up victories in a row. This total is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Bills/Titans. |
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10-13-20 | Braves v. Dodgers -155 | Top | 8-7 | Loss | -155 | 10 h 7 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Braves on the run-line last night, but I think that Clayton Kershaw and the Dodgers will respond in Game 2. Ian Anderson has been great this season. The rookie has exceeded all expectations and he's been sharp in the playoffs. But this is definitely unchartered territory and he's facing a Dodgers club that only lost two games in a row four times this season. The pick: Kershaw has a lifetime 1.68 ERA vs. the Braves, including posting a miniscule 1.29 ERA in three post-season starts vs. Atlanta. Look for the Dodgers to respond early and often and lay this price with confidence. This is a 10* ELITE OF THE ELITE on the LA Dodgers. UPDATE: Kershaw is scratched and Tony Gonsolin is in. This is STILL a valid play! Gonsolin posted a 2.34 ERA over nine starts in the regular season. I think he matches up well against the Braves rookie here. STILL VAILD PLAY |
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10-12-20 | Chargers v. Saints UNDER 50.5 | Top | 27-30 | Loss | -110 | 36 h 43 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are coming off high-scoring affairs, but I think that this MNF contest sets up as more of a defensive contest. The Chargers are 1-3 after collapsing late last week and falling 38-31 to the Bucs. New Orleans is now 2-2 after beating the Lions on the road 35-29. Chargers' rookie QB Justin Herbert had 290 passing yards with three TD's last weekend, but regression seems imminent in this difficult road venue. LA's defense has been a strong point despite the crummy second half vs. the Bucs last week, allowing only 23.8 PPG. The pick: The Saints are going to have to figure out things on the defensive end if they have any hopes of competing this year. Brees is down a few weapons this weekend as well, as TE Jason Vander Laan, WR Michael Thomas, TE Cole Wick are all out. That means that Brees is going to have to lean on Alvin Kamara to chew up clock and keep this aggressive Chargers' pass rush honest. No Monday Night shootout here, this one screams under! This is a 10* TOTAL ELITE OF THE ELITE on the UNDER Chargers/Saints. |
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10-12-20 | Braves +1.5 v. Dodgers | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 36 h 31 m | Show |
The set-up: I think this series and this opening matchup is a lot more even than what this line would suggest. Both teams have looked dominant to get to this point. The Braves pitching staff looks great and so too does the Dodgers. Fried has struggled against the Dodgers in the past, but that was then and this is now. Fried will be out for revenge here and he's been nearly untouchable all year. The pick: The Dodgers are just as awesome across the board as their counterpart. Buehler and Fried are a "wash" in this matchup. In this evenly matched contest which I foresee being decided late or even in extra frames, I'm laying the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance! This is a 10* RUN-LINE BEST OF THE BEST on the Braves. |
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10-12-20 | Astros v. Rays OVER 8 | 2-4 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 52 m | Show | |
The set-up: I had a play on the Rays in Game 1. I liked Tampa because Snell was a lefty and Houston's hard-hitting red hot line-up is primarily right-handed. Charlie Morton though is a right-hander and he's been terrible against the Astros throughout his career, going just 4-6 with a 6.28 ERA in 11 starts against them. The pick: Lance McCullers is a decent 1-2 with a 3.79 ERA in three career starts vs. Tampa, but he allowed eight hits and five runs, including three dingers, in his lone playoff start vs. the A's last week. Game 1 saw these teams combine to go 3 of 16 with runners in scoring position in Game 1. Look for these suspect starters to get the hook early and expect this total to fly "over" sooner, rather than later. This is an 8* SPECIAL TOTAL on the OVER Astros/Rays. |
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10-11-20 | Lakers v. Heat +5 | Top | 106-93 | Loss | -101 | 13 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: I had a play on the Heat in Game 5 and I think they'll cover here as well. At the very least. The outright win is possible to I believe, but in this case I think the safter route is to grab the points. LA is running low on energy and its role players have been struggling to keep up with Miami's bench production. The Heat have been playing great defensively as well. The pick: Miami has been an ATS covering machine in the playoffs, and LA is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight vs. the Eastern Conference. Anthony Davis is hampered by injuries and the Heat can smell the blood in the water. As stated above, I think the outright win is possible, but in the end let's grab the points! This is a 10* SIDE BLOCKBUSTER on the Miami Heat. |
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10-11-20 | Astros v. Rays -148 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 26 h 3 m | Show |
The set-up: I simply feel that the lefty Blake Snell has a big advantage here facing this Astros primarily right-hitting line-up. Valdez has been exceptional, but he's in unchartered territory here. Snell has more experience at this level. The Rays are hitting the ball well and they have a vastly better bullpen, one which is also filled with southpaws. The pick: Note as well that Houston is just 2-6 in its last eight when playing with three or more days of rest. I think Snell is the difference in Game 1, so I'm laying the price! This is a 10* COACH'S CORNER on the Tampa Bay Rays. |
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10-11-20 | Colts v. Browns +1.5 | Top | 23-32 | Win | 100 | 53 h 38 m | Show |
The set-up: Two contrasting styles of play here, as Indianapolis gets the job done with defense, while the Browns try to run their opponents off the field with their high-powered offense. The Colts are averaging 25.8 PPG and they're allowing 14. The Browns are averaging 31.0 and they're conceding 31.5. The pick: But Cleveland has averaged 39.3 PPG over its last three and this offense is firing on all cylinders. The Colts will have their hands full with Nick Chubb and this Browns rushing game which leads the NFL. Baker Mayfield is dual threat himself. I think this is a big opportunity for Cleveland's defense as well, as the Colts don't ask Philip Rivers to ever do too much. I'm all over Cleveland in this one. This is a 10* GAME OF THE MONTH on the Cleveland Browns. |
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10-11-20 | Jaguars v. Texans -5 | 14-30 | Win | 100 | 48 h 39 m | Show | |
The set-up: Jacksonville somehow upset the Colts in Week 1, but it's since gone 0-3 since that victory. The Texans clearly enter as the hungrier team, as they're 0-4 and they just finished firing their general manager and head coach in Bill O'Brien. The Texans have played four straight tough defenses, but now they face one of the worst defenses in the entire league. Houston's JJ Watt is furious right now and he'll be taking it upon himself to lead the unit on that side of the field. The combination of DeShaun Watson and David Johnson will be just too much for Gardner Minshew and this undermanned Jaguars team to keep up with down the stretch. The pick: Note that the Texans are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after two or more SU/ATS losses as well. I think the coaching change finally wakes up Watson and company and I expect this one to be a rout from start to finish. Lay the points. This is a 9* ATS BLOWOUT on the Houston Texans. |
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10-11-20 | Cardinals v. Jets +7.5 | 30-10 | Loss | -110 | 47 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: Arizona is overhyped and it's clearly dealing with chemistry issues. Sam Darnold is probably better than Joe Flacco, but the Jets defense is going to have its opportunities today. So far New York has seven picks and six sacks through four games. The pick: The Cardinals just lost to the Panthers, so to try and pretend they don't have issues across all three phases would be a mistake as well. Last week Arizona had zero sacks vs. Teddy Bridgewater. Arizona admittedly has the better talent, but that talent is having big chemistry issues. The Jets are the desperate and winless home side. I'm grabbing the points and expecting this one to come right down to the wire. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the New York Jets. |
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10-10-20 | Mississippi State v. Kentucky -125 | Top | 2-24 | Win | 100 | 36 h 44 m | Show |
The set-up: Mississippi State has a new coach in Mike Leach and they looked great in their season opening win over LSU. But they took a major step back in last week's 21-14 upset loss to Arkansas. The Bulldogs lost Kylin Hill as well last week to injury, last year he led the SEC in rushing. This type of inconsistent effort isn't going to get the job done on the road, especially vs. this incredibly competitive Wildcats team. The pick: Kentucky lost by 16 to Auburn, but the Tigers are ranked No. 8 nationally right now. Then last week they unfortunately fell 42-41 to Ole Miss in OT, giving up a late TD to send it into extra time. The Wildcats have a balanced offense and I think their defense will have a big day here vs. this struggling Bulldogs' offense. Mississippi State played sloppy last weekend and I think it's going to struggle again to keep up with this hungry home side as well on Saturday. The play is Kentucky on the money-line! This is a 10* MONEY-LINE GAME OF THE YEAR on Kentucky. |
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10-10-20 | Kansas State v. TCU OVER 50 | 21-14 | Loss | -115 | 29 h 35 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Horned Frogs are 1-1 on the season and they'll be looking to build off their big upset win over Texas last weekend. Kansas State comes in off back-to-back big wins, winning outright in Oklahoma as a 27-point underdog, before then taking care of business vs. Texas Tech last weekend. These teams only combined for 41 points last year, but I expect a much more explosive affair this time around. K-State is averaging 392.7 YPG and it's allowing 492.3 (the Wildcats have been outgained in both their victories so far.)Â The pick: TCU has already played two really high-scoring affairs, losing 37-34 to Iowa State, before then pulling off the 33-31 upset victory over No. 9 Texas on Saturday. TCU is averaging 478 YPG, while allowing 405.5. While the last four head-to-head meetings between these teams have gone "under," these offenses are firing on all cylinders this year and I expect that trend to carry over into this one. This contest has "shootout" written all over it. This is an 8* O/U DESTRUCTION on the OVER K-State/TCU. |
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10-10-20 | Florida v. Texas A&M UNDER 59 | 38-41 | Loss | -105 | 24 h 26 m | Show | |
The set-up: The Aggies look to regroup after last week's 52-24 loss to the Crimson Tide. The Aggies' issues are on offense though, as Kellen Mond has offensive line issues, which has led to him having zero chemistry with receivers at this point. Prior to the Bama loss, Florida struggled in a 17-12 win over lowly Vandy. The Aggies defense though has been fantastic, allowing just 3.2 yards per carry and a 44 percent third-down conversion rate. The pick: Kyle Trask and the Gators will have their hands full here. Trask so far has ten TD's and just one INT. The offense has averaged 44.5 PPG in the early going. Last week the defense held South Carolina to 329 yards. Florida head coach Dan Mullen though likes to run out the clock while on offense, to keep opposing offenses off the field. Expect a lot of running from both sides on offense and for this total to indeed stay well "under" once it's all said and done. This is a 9* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Florida/Texas A&M. |
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10-09-20 | Heat +7.5 v. Lakers | 111-108 | Win | 100 | 26 h 53 m | Show | |
The set-up: I think the Heat will take the Lakers down to the wire at the very least in Game 5. LA's bench players have to be feeling pretty nervous right now, as the hardest thing to do in the playoffs is to close out a team and win a championship. Miami clearly won't be rolling over here. LeBron James came back from a 3-1 deficit with the Cavaliers in the Finals to beat the Warriors. Eric Spolestra has been great at making game-to-game adjustments and he'll have something prepared tonight for his team as they try to avoid elimination. The pick: LA is still just 1-6 ATS in its last seven vs. the Eastern Conference, while the Heat are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after scoring 99 points or less in a loss in their previous outing. These teams are exhausted, both mentally and physically at this point, but all signs point to another battle until the end in Game 5. I'm grabbing the points. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Miami Heat. |
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10-09-20 | Yankees -149 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -149 | 12 h 20 m | Show |
The set-up: The winner advances to take on the Astros in the ALCS. New York delivered with the 5-1 win last night and I think the Evil Empire will carry that momentum over here for a series victory and finally get the monkey off their back vs. the Rays here. Tampa has won 10 of 14 meetings this year, but the Yanks can turn the page on that chapter with their ace on the mound tonight. The Yanks are averaging 7.5 runs per game in the playoffs and they've hit 16 home runs. Cole dominated the Rays in Game, allowing three runs in the 9-3 victory. The pick: Tyler Glasnow gets the call on short rest for Tampa here and he'll make way for Blake Snell if needed. Glasnow struck out ten in his Game 2 win over the Yanks. It's true that "anything" can happen in a deciding game. That said, I think that the Yankees have the better hitting line-up and they also have the superior starter on the hill for this big moment. This line could/should in fact be a lot larger in my opinion. The play is the Yanks. This is a 10* BLOOD-BATH on the New York Yankees. |
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10-09-20 | Louisville v. Georgia Tech UNDER 64.5 | Top | 27-46 | Loss | -112 | 26 h 22 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams enter at 1-2. I'm expecting a defensive affair. 15 projected starters returned for the Cardinals this year, so the team was expecting to improve upon its 8-5 showing from last season. Louisville will be desperate here to avoid an 0-3 start in ACC play. QB Malik Cunningham had 22 TDs and only five INTs last year, but he's already thrown five picks over his first three games this season. Despite getting outgained 376-223 to Pittsburgh last week, Louisville still only lost by three points. Louisville averages 29.7 PPG and it allows 30.3. The pick: The Yellow Jackets have struggled defensively as well in conceding 33 PPG, but their offense has been worse in averaging just 19 PPG. Georgia Tech's offense is still a work in progress though and I think it'll struggle here vs. this focussed Louisville side. GT has yet to score 20 points in a games this year, while Louisville has seen less than 57 total points scored in two of its first three this season. Neither QB has been great, so it's time for these defeneses to finally shine. This number is a tad hight. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Louisville/Georgia Tech. |
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10-08-20 | Bucs v. Bears UNDER 44.5 | Top | 19-20 | Win | 100 | 55 h 16 m | Show |
The set-up: Both teams are 3-1, but the Bears played three "cream puffs" to open the season. Chicago fell 19-11 to the Colts last weekend though and now it faces another tough defense in Tampa. I expect the home side to play it conservatively here as it looks to take the pressure off of Nick Foles. The Bears are only averaging 21.3 PPG so far this season. The pick: The Bucs have looked pretty good on both sides of the ball since their Week 1 loss to the Saints, but after Tom Brady rallied his team for a 38-31 win over the Chargers last weekend, throwing four second half TD's, I think that the visitors come in "gassed" here. A short week for Brady, means that Tampa will also be looking to alleviate pressure off their older QB and establish the run game from the outset. This one sets up great as a lower-scoring "chess match" in my opinion. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Bucs/Bears. |
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10-08-20 | Braves -130 v. Marlins | Top | 7-0 | Win | 100 | 20 h 40 m | Show |
The set-up: The Braves have the small advantage of Sixto Sanchez on the mound in Game 3 over Kyle Wright for the Braves, but Atlanta will have Wright on a short leash before it makes way for its competent bullpen. Sanchez has been terrific in his limited time, but he's in completely unchartered territory here and I think this hard-hitting Braves' line-up will get to him early. The pick: MIami is just 1-6 in its last seven overall in this series, and while Wright has struggled at times over this year, note that the Braves have in fact won all three of his last trips to the hill. I look for the Braves' bats to put the final nail in the coffin for these cindarella Marlins. This is a 10* PLAY-BOOK on the Atlanta Braves. |
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10-07-20 | Marlins v. Braves -190 | 0-2 | Win | 100 | 19 h 23 m | Show | |
The set-up: Lopez beat Anderson 4-2 in September, but I like the Braves to keep the foot on the gas and build off their big win in Game 1. Anderson finished with better regular season numbers and while each starter looked good in their respective wildcard win, clearly the Marlins bullpen is a train-wreck compared to the well-oiled machine of the Braves. I think this will once again play a big role in the outcome of Game 2 (and this series). The pick: Note as well that ATL is 11-1 in its last 12 vs. clubs with winning records, while Miami is now interestingly just 1-5 in its last six vs. the National League East. Look for Anderson to deliver a gem and for the Braves' bullpen to finish it off. I'm laying the price and expecting a blowout. This is an 6* SITUATIONAL DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves. |
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10-06-20 | Lakers -7.5 v. Heat | Top | 102-96 | Loss | -100 | 36 h 46 m | Show |
The set-up: If you want an ESPN summary of what each individual player did in Game 3, then go to ESPN. If you're wagering on this contest, cleary you're familar with the cast of characters and the overall storyline. I'm here to tell you why I think the Lakers are going to streamroll the Heat in Game 4. LeBron James looked like a moron leaving the court early and he knows that the one thing that cures everything is "winning." When the Lakers big men assert themselves, the Heat have no answers and that's exactly what I expect to see happen here. Jimmy Butler was amazing in Game 3, but there's on way he can duplicate that effort again here. The pick: Note as well that the Lakers are 7-2 ATS in their last nine after a ten points or greater setback in their previous outing. No need to overanalyze in my opinion, as this one has "beatdown" written all over it. Lay the points. This is a 10* GAME OF THE WEEK on the LA Lakers. |
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10-06-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 9 | Top | 5-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 57 m | Show |
The set-up: After yesterday's 10-5 win for the Astros, I expect much more of a duel here in Game 2. Framber Valdez (3-5, 3.57 ERA) gave up only lfive home runs over 70 2/3's innings of work in the regular season. He came in on relief of Zack Greinke during his team's 4-1 win over the Twins and delivered five scoreless frames. The pick: Sean Manaea comes in fresh for the A's, as he did not throw in the series win over the White Sox. Manaea only allowed seven home runs over 54 innings of work, while striking out 45 this year. Note as well that the A's have seen the total go "under" in ten of their last 15 after allowing ten or more runs in a loss in their previous outing. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE WEEK on the UNDER Astros/Athletics. |
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10-06-20 | Marlins v. Braves -198 | 5-9 | Win | 100 | 23 h 32 m | Show | |
The set-up: Sandy Alcantara has been great and he's a possible X-Factor in this matchup if he can match Max Fried. However, the Braves have a fantastic bullpen and closer and I think these two factors will prove to be the difference in Game 1 and in this series. The Marlins aren't "sneaking up" on anyone anymore and while they've been an unbelievable story to this point, I think their Cindarella moment is over. The pick: Miami went just 8-9 in "day" games this year, while ATL went 11-1 in Fried starts in 2020. Atlanta averages 5.48 runs in the regular season and while the pitching staff of the Reds' quieted the Braves' bats down, Alcantara and company aren't nearly on the same level as Trevor Bauer. I'm laying the price and expecting a blowout. This is a 6* DESTRUCTION on the Atlanta Braves. |
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10-05-20 | Falcons v. Packers UNDER 57.5 | Top | 16-30 | Win | 100 | 59 h 13 m | Show |
The set-up: The Falcons are 0-3. Atlanta has sizeable leads in each of its losses, only to choke it away late. This is a dejected Falcons side and I think it'll have difficulty summoning up the energy to go toe to toe with the red hot Packers on Monday night. Matt Ryan has been a bright spot for Atlanta, as he has seven TD's and just two INT's. The Falcons defense has been terrible, allowing 36 PPG. The pick: Aaron Rodgers and company don't need to "pad stats" after a 3-0 start though. Green Bay is in a good spot and it doesn't need to run up this score to win this contest. From a situational stand point, I think this number is much too high, but also note that Green Bay has seen the total go "under" the number in eight of its last 11 after a three-games or longer unbeaten streak. These are two "gun-slinging" veteran QB's going head-to-head, but look for a more conservative game-plan from each. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is a 10* TOTAL MADNESS on the UNDER Falcons/Packers. |
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10-05-20 | Yankees v. Rays OVER 7.5 | Top | 9-3 | Win | 105 | 36 h 21 m | Show |
The set-up: Gerrit Cole and Blake Snell are two of the top pitchers in the entire league. Each comes in off a decent season and both have performed well over their last five games. Despite that though, I think that these two powerful and hungry line-ups will combine to push this total over this low number once it's all said and done. The Rays dominated the regular season series 8-2, but that just adds big incentive for this now healthy Yankees slugging line-up to get revenge. In my opinion, this one definitely sets up as a "slug-fest" from a situational stand point. The pick: It also sets up great from an O/U ATS/stats stand-point as well, as note that New York has seen the total go "over" in six of its last seven on the road, while Tampa Bay has seen the total go "over" in eight of its last 12 when playing with two or more days of rest. Expect this one to blast past the total in the middle frames! This is a 10* TOTAL OF THE MONTH on the OVER Yanks/Rays. |
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10-05-20 | Patriots v. Chiefs UNDER 50 | 10-26 | Win | 100 | 12 h 15 m | Show | |
The set-up: This sets up well from a situational stand point. These teams were prepared to play on Sunday, but the Cam Newton covid scare delayed the contest. Now Cam is out and veteran backup Brian Hoyer will be asked to "manage" this contest. Expect the Pats to lean on their ground game in KC, with Sony Michel and Rex Burkhead dominating the carries (Pats are No. 1 in the league running the ball with 178 rushing yards per game.)Â The pick: KC is in zero threat of losing this game. After the Chiefs go up big early, look for them to take the foot off the gas, to run the clock and avoid serious injury. The Chiefs have allowed exactly 20 points in each of their first three games, but I have a hard time seeing Hoyer and company getting to that mark. This number is a tad high, the play is the under. This is an 8* TOTAL COACH'S CORNER on the UNDER Pats/Chiefs. |
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10-05-20 | Astros +1.5 v. A's | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 9 h 27 m | Show | |
The set-up: The A's won seven of ten in the regular season series between these clubs, but I like the Astros to take Game 1. For the fourth straight season and fifth in the last six years, Houston is in the playoffs. Lance McCullers Jr. (3-3, 3.93) was the only Houston pitcher that didn't throw in the wildcard round, so he comes very fresh having not hit the hill since September 26th. The pick: The A's won their first playoff series in 14 years and I think they're primed for a classic letdown here. Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29 in regular season) who gave up one run over six innings last Wednesday. Note though that Oakland is 1-4 in its last five off a victory and only 1-4 in its last five following a day off, while Houston is 5-0 in its last five playoff games not played in HOuston and 41-10 in its last 51 following a day off. The experience that these Astros players bring to the table is invaluable at this point. Outright win is possible, but let's lay the reasonable mid-sized price for the extra 1.5 runs of insurance in a contest which could easily see extra frames. This is an 8* PLAY-BOOK on the ASTROS on the RUN-LINE! |
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10-05-20 | Astros v. A's UNDER 8 | 10-5 | Loss | -100 | 9 h 22 m | Show | |
The set-up: This one sets up great from a situational stand point. Lance McCullers (3-3, 3.93 ERA) has plenty of postseason experience, so he'll clearly be eager to prove himself here in a confident manner. Note, he also benefits from having not thrown since September 26th. The pick: The A's Chris Bassitt (5-2, 2.29) dominated in the wild-card, allowing one run over seven innings. Bassitt was 1-1 vs. the Astros this year as well, posting a 2.65 ERA in the process. Oakland's bullpen was No. 1 in the majors during the regular season and Houston's pen did not give up a single run in the series win over Minnesota. Expect a classic "duel" in Game 1. This is an 8* SUPER TOTAL on the UNDER Astros/A's. |
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10-04-20 | Lakers v. Heat UNDER 218.5 | Top | 104-115 | Loss | -104 | 34 h 53 m | Show |
The set-up: Game 1 went "under," and Game 2 went "over." I think that Game 3 will follow along the same suit as Game 1. The Heat are injured and they're dejected. No team in NBA Final history has ever come back from a 3-0 deficit and the Lakers will want to rub out all hope right here. LA was one of the best defensive clubs in the league in the regular season and with no big men to threaten them down low, look for the Lakers to double down on the perimeter defense today. The pick: Note that the Heat have seen the total go "under" in seven of their last 11 after a ten points or greater loss in their previous outing. Look for fatigue to be an issue here as well. This number is a little high. This is a 10* TOTAL PLAY-BOOK on the UNDER Lakers/Heat. |
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10-04-20 | Giants +14 v. Rams | 9-17 | Win | 100 | 79 h 9 m | Show | |
The set-up: I'm not predicting an outright upset, but I do think that the Giants can comfortably sneak in through the back door down the stretch here. New York is coming off a 36-9 loss to San Francisco at home, so clearly not many are giving them much of a chance in this one. The Rams are coming off a heart-breaking loss on the road in Buffalo and with a "cream puff" matchup in Washington next weekend, the possibility of them taking the foot off the gas in the second half is big. The pick: The Giants are playing for pride here as they look to get off the schneid. Note that New York is 7-2 ATS in its last nine after three straight SU/ATS losses. No outright, but closer than expected. This is an 8* COACH'S CORNER on the New York Giants. |
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10-04-20 | Saints -4 v. Lions | 35-29 | Win | 100 | 76 h 5 m | Show | |
The set-up: New Orleans will look to avoid an 1-3 hole here. The Saints catch a complacent Lions team off an improbable road win in Arizona. The Lions are allowing 30.7 PPG and they're scoring only 23.3. The pick: The Saints are the better team through all three phases here and from a situational stand point, it sets up well for them in the dome at Ford Field, but also note that the Lions are just 3-8 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog, while New Orleans is 4-1 ATS in its last five as a road favorite. Lay the points, expect a blowout. This is an 8* DESTRUCTION on the New Orleans Saints. |
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