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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-26-17 | Red Sox -212 v. Mariners | Top | 4-0 | Win | 100 | 12 h 58 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over Seattle. The BoSox dropped last night's game in 13 innings when Seattle scored two runs in the final frame to come from behind for a 6-5 win. But I love Boston to bounce back on this Wednesday afternoon with its ace on the hill. Chris Sale has been spectacular this season. He's 12-4 with a 2.48 ERA. But over his last five starts, his ERA is 1.32, and his WHIP is 0.85. And he's struck out 54 in his last 34 innings pitched. This afternoon, he'll have a huge advantage over his mound opponent, Andrew Moore. A rookie, Moore has had just five starts this season. And his last two have been poor (10.00 ERA; 1.77 WHIP). It's true the price is high for Boston, but it's been fantastic as a favorite priced at -200 or higher, as it's 10-1 this season, and 26-6 (+13 games on the moneyline) the last three years. Meanwhile, Seattle's 3-7 as a home dog its last 10, and 61-80 (minus 25 games on the moneyline) its last 141 vs. lefty starters. Take Boston. Mound Mismatch Massacre! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-25-17 | Royals v. Tigers -141 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -141 | 10 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Kansas City Royals. We were 2-1 yesterday with our lone loser being Detroit, in extra innings. We will come right back with the Tigers tonight. Like last night's game, tonight's affair is a pitching rematch from five days ago. That game was also won by Danny Duffy and the Royals, 16-4 (in Kansas City). Detroit's Michael Fulmer gave up 8 runs (5 earned) in a career-low 2 2-3 innings in that game, which halted Fulmer's personal 4-game win streak. In those 4 prior starts, Fulmer gave up just 8 runs in 30 2-3 innings (2.34 ERA), and struck out 16 against just 24 baserunners (0.78 WHIP). I look for Fulmer to bounce back on this Tuesday, as he rarely has two poor performances in a row. Indeed, he leads the American League with 16 quality starts this season, and has only had back-to-back non-quality starts once in his past 35 starts. The Tigers are 11-1 with him on the mound when priced as a home favorite between -125 and -175. And Detroit's 20-12 (+7 games on the moneyline) off an upset loss to a division rival, while KC is 3-6 off an upset win over a division foe. Take Detroit. AL Game of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-24-17 | Red Sox v. Mariners -147 | Top | 0-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 35 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Boston Red Sox. The Red Sox have gone to a six-man rotation in the month of July and that's a bit strange to say the least. But it's not nearly as strange as the fact that five of the six are left-handed pitchers. And while Brian Johnson and tonight's starter, Eduardo Rodriguez, are hardly household names, the other three - Drew Pomeranz, David Price, and Chris Sale - are pretty darn good. But this certainly explains why the Red Sox may be very interested in acquiring Sonny Gray (from the A's) or some other veteran RHP that can help them down the stretch. Rodriguez goes for 12th start of the season and although he really doesn't have great stuff, the 24-year-old teases the Sox every now and then with a strong start that is enough to keep them plugging him in there. And while Rodriguez's career seems to be stuck in neutral, Seattle's southpaw James Paxton appears to be on the verge of a big breakout. When healthy, Paxton has shown that he can be one of the more dominating left-handers in the league, as evidenced by his 3.05 ERA and 10.2 K's per nine IP. Seattle's 19-11 when priced from -125 to -175 this season. Take the Mariners. |
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07-24-17 | Braves v. Diamondbacks -191 | Top | 2-10 | Win | 100 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Atlanta Braves. The D-Backs probably felt good about starting the 2nd half with a three game series in Atlanta against the Braves last week. But their optimism was quickly dashed as the Braves put a three-game sweep on Arizona. Now the home team has a chance for some revenge as the Braves come into the desert for a three-game set. The Braves didn't have to face D-Backs RH ace Zack Greinke in that previous series, but they have to start out with him tonight. The Diamondbacks will also have the added benefit of some additional offense from newly-acquired OF J.D. Martinez, who they received from the Tigers in exchange for three minor league players. Greinke admittedly didn't have his best stuff in his last start, as he threw 104 pitches in five innings against the Reds. It was the first time he failed to go more than five since June 26. Look for an improvement tonight back home where Greinke is an incredible 9-0 with a 2.41 ERA in 11 starts. Greinke's teams are also 42-10 at home when priced from -175 to -250. Take the D-Backs. |
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07-24-17 | Royals v. Tigers -141 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -141 | 9 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over Kansas City. This is a rematch of a game played five days ago when KC and Jason Hammel downed Detroit and Justin Verlander 4-3. I look for Detroit and Verlander to gain a measure of revenge this evening. The Tigers busted out for 9 runs in yesterday's win, and are 35-12 after scoring 8+ runs in their previous game. Verlander's ERA over his last three starts is a solid 2.37, while his career ERA in his 44 starts vs. KC is 3.18. In contrast, Hammel's career ERA in his 8 starts vs. Detroit is an ugly 7.25 with a 1.91 WHIP. Take the Tigers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-23-17 | A's v. Mets UNDER 9.5 | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 12 h 47 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets and Oakland Athletics 'under' the total. It's no secret how many talented, young starting pitchers have come through the Mets organization in the last five years. But what New York probably didn't count on were the multitude of injuries that these hurlers would have to endure. The Mets might have preferred that RHP Rafael Montero develop himself as an effective bullpen option for the team. However the talented Dominican has essentially been forced into a starting role due to the injuries to Noah Syndergaard, Matt Harvey, and Robert Gsellman. Montero has been a work in progress, with a tendency to walk far too many batters in his previous three seasons in the Majors. But Montero may finally have his control problems in check. Over his last three starts, he is 1-2 with a 3.50 ERA, 18 strikeouts and five walks in 18 innings. And Montero has only issued a total of eight free passes since the end of May. Both of Montero's July starts have gone 'under' the total, as have 10 of his last 12 starts, overall. Take the 'under.' MLB Total of the Week! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-17 | Braves v. Dodgers -240 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 9 h 29 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Atlanta. The Dodgers were the hottest team in baseball before dropping their last two games. But, notwithstanding those two defeats, they're still the hottest team, as they're 31-6 their last 37. Southpaw Rich Hill has been a big part of the Dodgers' success as he has an 0.95 ERA over his last three starts. Additionally, he's 3-0 in his career vs. Atlanta, with a 1.93 ERA, while Julio Teheran is 0-6 vs. LA with a 6.47 ERA. Finally, the Dodgers are 53-14 (+26 games on the moneyline) as a favorite priced at -150 or better. Take Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-17 | Brewers -118 v. Phillies | Top | 9-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Philadelphia. The Brew Crew have dropped six straight, but I look for them to bounce back on this Saturday evening in the City of Brotherly Love. Milwaukee is a solid 19-6 as a favorite this season (+11 games on the moneyline), while Philly is a poor 17-40 at night, and 23-50 (minus 17 games on the moneyline) as an underdog. Take the Brewers. |
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07-22-17 | A's -102 v. Mets | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -102 | 17 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the New York Mets. Sean Manaea has been solid for Oakland this season, as his ERA is 3.68, and his WHIP is 1.20. Even better: over his last three starts, those numbers are 2.95 and 1.17. He'll match up against Zach Wheeler this evening at Citi Field. Wheeler has been dismal at home, with a 2-5 record, 5.52 ERA and 1.56 WHIP. And against the A's in his career, Wheeler's ERA is an awful 9.39, with a 1.95 WHIP. Take the Oakland A's. |
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07-22-17 | Rangers v. Rays -192 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -192 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Texas Rangers. Don't look now, but here come the Tampa Bay Rays. Heading into the weekend, the Rays are five games over .500 and sitting in second place in the AL East, just 3 1/2 games behind the Boston Red Sox. Were it not for this unlikely position in the standings, the Rays might very well be shopping ace RH Chris Archer to contending teams before the deadline. And Archer would likely return big value for the Rays as he is a relatively young strikeout artist with a very team-friendly contract that still has a couple of years left. But instead Archer will now almost certainly spend the next couple of months trying to get his Rays a Division Crown - or at least a Wild Card. He led the league in losses last season, but has improved in almost every category in 2017 and was an All Star for only the second time in his career. Archer has a strikeout rate of almost 11 per nine innings and he's already beaten the Rangers this season, back on May 31 in Arlington. The Rangers are 2-7 in RHP Andrew Cashner's last nine road starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-22-17 | Blue Jays +115 v. Indians | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 7 h 28 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Cleveland. We've played on Marcus Stroman several times this season (as he's been the Jays' best starter), and will once again take him in an underdog role. His ERA is 1.45 over his last three starts, and he'll match up against Danny Salazar, who is coming off the DL. Even worse: Salazar is a poor 4-8 with a 6.16 ERA over his last 20 appearances (dating back to last season). And the Indians are an awful 1-6 vs. losing teams this season with Salazar on the hill. Take the Blue Jays. |
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07-22-17 | Cardinals v. Cubs -160 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the St. Louis Cardinals. If the Cubs are going to compete with the Dodgers and Nationals for a second-straight NL Crown and trip to the World Series, they're going to need LHP Jon Lester to step up in the final two-plus months. To say 2017 has been a disappointment for the former Red Sox veteran would be an understatement as Lester is 6-6 with a 4.07 ERA in a league-leading 20 starts. Some pitchers might be happy with those numbers, but not Lester. Still, there are some reasons for optimism as he steps to the mound to face division-rival St. Louis. First, Lester has pitched much better at home than on the road, with a 3.73 ERA and 1.23 WHIP here vs. just 4.47 and 1.37 elsewhere. Second, he's pitched well against the Cards in the past, and the Cubs are 4-2 in Lester's last six outings vs. them. And Lester is a very good second half pitcher winning almost 2/3 of his decisions after the break (72-37, .661) with a post-All Star ERA of 3.36 (vs. 3.57 pre-break). He got 2017's second half off to a strong start with seven, three-hit innings in a victory over the Braves on Monday. Take Chicago. |
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07-21-17 | Pirates v. Rockies -134 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -134 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Two hot NL teams meet in Denver for a three-game series that kicks off tonight. The Pirates are on a five game win streak and the Rockies four, with the Pirates taking two of three from the Cardinals before sweeping the Brewers in Milwaukee while Colorado beat the Mets in NY before heading home to sweep the Padres over three games. But whereas Pittsburgh squeaked by in its five victories (4-3, 4-2, 4-3, 3-2, 4-2), the Rockies have been a scoring machine. The tallies in their last four have been 13-4, 9-6, 9-7, and 18-4. With that kind of production, the Rox are probably sorry they had the day off yesterday. Rookie RH Jeff Hoffman will move into injured Tyler Chatwood’s spot and start on regular rest tonight. His numbers at home (6.44 ERA, 12 BBs, 20 Ks) are considerably worse than on the road, but with the numbers that the Colorado bats have been putting on the board lately, that will hardly matter. It's one of the main reasons he has the best win percentage on the team (6-1). The Rox are 20-7 in their last 27 games after a day off. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-21-17 | White Sox v. Royals -175 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Kansas City Royals over the Chicago White Sox. It's going to be a decidedly different White Sox team on the field most nights the rest of the season as the South-siders made two big trades in the past week, the latest being a seven-player deal that sent Todd Frazier and David Robertson to the Yanks. And it's still 10 days until the non-waiver deadline. Frazier was one of the only pure power bats in this lineup, and although the Sox immediately called up #1 prospect Yoan Moncada, the Cuban will likely need time in the Majors before he can be productive. Veteran RH Ian Kennedy gets tonight's start for the Royals, and over his last three starts, Kennedy has an ERA of 2.83, throwing at least six innings in each of those. He has also struck out seven batters in two of those and walked a total of just four. The one thing you can say about Kennedy (and it's proving itself again in 2017) is that he gets better as the season progresses. Check out these career ERA's by month (starting with May): 4.43, 4.37, 4.15, 3.42, and 3.22. His 2017 monthly ERA since May is 11.03, 4.08, and 2.79 so far in July. The Sox are 4-10 in their last 14 meetings in KC. Take the Royals. |
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07-21-17 | Tigers v. Twins -132 | Top | 6-3 | Loss | -132 | 18 h 0 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Detroit Tigers. The Twins have definitely come down to earth from their pre-All Star high when they led the AL Central race for what seemed like most of the first three months. But they're still capable of playing some very good ball, and they've done just that since the break, having just taken two of three from the Yankees here at home. Before that, they lost a series to the Astros, but managed to take a game - never an easy feat these days. The pitcher in that lone victory in the Houston series was RH Ervin Santana, who goes to the mound for his 20th start of the season tonight. Santana was an All Star for the first time in 10 years, and deservedly so. He is 11-6 with a 2.99 ERA and he leads the league in complete games with four and shutouts with three. The Tigers will go with RHP Anibal Sanchez, whose midsummer resurgence as a starter hit a rough patch in his last start. In that one, he allowed three homers for five runs over six innings vs.Toronto. He gave up eight runs over three innings in relief at Target Field this year. Take Minny. |
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07-20-17 | Padres v. Giants -200 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -200 | 21 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. If you want to sum up the Giants horrendous 2017 season to date, just consider this: Madison Bumgarner does not have a win in the first half of the season for the first time in his career since he became a full time starter in 2010. Of course, that wouldn't be the case had the ace LH not injured himself in a dirt bike riding accident on April 20. In many ways, Bumgarner is lucky that the injury wasn't worse, and he can take his time getting back to being the dominating pitcher that he was as his team clearly isn't going anywhere this season. The good news is that in his return from the DL last Saturday, Mad-bum was solid, throwing 102 pitches in seven innings while allowing three runs on just four hits. That return start was also against the Padres (in San Diego) and there's every reason to think that Bumgarner can improve off of that tonight at AT&T Park. Despite Mad-bum being win-less on the season, the Giants are 5-2 in his last seven home starts. Take San Fran. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-17 | Tigers -116 v. Royals | Top | 4-16 | Loss | -116 | 19 h 6 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Tigers over the Kansas City Royals. How often have we seen a pitcher come out of nowhere to win a Rookie of the Year Award, only to have a major regression in his sophomore campaign? Detroit RHP Michael Fulmer certainly fit the bill as he was not that highly touted coming into his first MLB season last year despite being the Mets' first round draft pick in 2011. But Fulmer pitched well enough to take home the top Rookie honors (and finish 10th in the Cy Young voting). He was certainly primed for a let-down coming into the 2017 season. But instead of being a disappointment, Fulmer has taken his game to the next level this season. The 24-year-old is 10-6 with a 3.06 ERA (the exact same number as last year), while lowering his WHIP to 1.07 and - more importantly - putting up the best walk rate in the league (0.5 per 9 IP). He also has thrown quality starts in all but two of his 18 outings. He's already beaten the Royals this season (at home) and now he'll try to do it again on the road. The Royals came into Wednesday's game struggling, having won just two of their past nine. Take Detroit. |
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07-20-17 | Blue Jays +112 v. Red Sox | Top | 8-6 | Win | 112 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. Admittedly, both pitchers (Toronto's Francisco Liriano and Boston's Doug Fister) have had their struggles this season. But it's hard to make a case for Fister, given that he's favored, as his teams are an awful 2-8 his last 10 starts at home when they've been installed as the favorite. Even worse: Fister's teams are 6-18 in his second half starts the past three years, while Liriano's teams are 23-10. Take Toronto in this underdog role. |
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07-19-17 | Cardinals v. Mets -168 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 1 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the St. Louis Cardinals. With their woeful performance and extremely poor standing in their own division, it's entirely possible that the Mets could move veteran players at the deadline in exchange for prospects. Lucas Duda is a name that's been kicked around recently. One name that won't be going anywhere is ace RH Jacob deGrom. deGrom is stamping himself as one of the top three or four RH pitchers in the League. deGrom is 10-3 with a 3.48 ERA in 18 starts, and those numbers would be even better were it not for back-to-back ugly starts at the end of May and beginning of June (15 runs on 18 hits in just eight combined innings). Since that first start last month, deGrom has been on fire, winning six straight starts while posting a 1.53 ERA in 47 innings. One of those was two starts ago against this Cards team, a 6-5 Mets victory in St. Louis in which deGrom allowed four runs on eight hits in seven innings, but didn't walk anyone. He's back home tonight, where he's done his best work this season, going 5-2 with a 2.37 ERA in nine starts (vs. 5-1 and 4.63 in the same number on the road). The Mets are 4-0 in deGrom's last four home starts. Take New York. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-17 | Rays v. A's -112 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 13 h 10 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Tampa Bay Rays. Rumors continue to circulate that RHP Sonny Gray will be moving to a contending team before the trade deadline. And if the Oakland ace is trying to make his case that he could help someone get deep into the post-season - and why wouldn't he want to make that case - then he's been doing a pretty good job lately. After stumbling his way to a 2-3 record with a 4.84 ERA in his first 10 starts through June 20, Gray has really turned it around in his last four trips to the hill. The 27-year-old is 3-1 with a 1.33 ERA in those last four starts, lowering his ERA on the season more than a run to 3.72. He'll try to keep it up with his second start of the season against the Rays. On June 10, in the first game of a double-header, Gray struck out 10 Tampa hitters while issuing just one walk in a strong no-decision. His defense let him down in that one as he allowed five runs, but only one was earned. Gray is a very good daytime pitcher, as he has a 19-10 record (.655) with a 2.99 ERA in 40 early starts (vs. 24-25 and 3.72 in 72 night games). The Athletics are 11-5 in Gray's last 16 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Oakland. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-17 | Nationals v. Angels -124 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -124 | 21 h 59 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over the Washington Nationals. This will be Edwin Jackson's first start of the 2017 season, as he will be replacing Joe Ross in the Nats' rotation. Ross tore his ulnar collateral ligament, and will miss the rest of this season. Thus, Jackson (who hurled for the Nationals five seasons ago) will be Washington's fifth starter. For the last month, he's been with AAA Syracuse. And, although he pitched well, he was poor with the Baltimore Orioles earlier this season when he appeared in three games as a reliever, and allowed seven runs (four earned) in those three relief appearances.  Understandably, the Nationals have been installed as an underdog vs. Jesse Chavez and the Angels tonight. Chavez has been solid at home this season (3.35 ERA; 1.09 WHIP), and the Angels also have the added benefit of not playing on Monday (while Washington was in Cincinnati for an afternoon game). Anaheim is 127-92 (+28 games on the moneyline) when playing with a day off, while Washington's an awful 32-61 (minus 24 games on the moneyline) as an underdog. Take the Angels. MLB Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-17 | Blue Jays -107 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -107 | 5 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over the Boston Red Sox. We played on the Jays last night in Game 1 of this 4-game series, and will come right back with them in this 2nd game, tonight. J.A. Happ will get the start for Toronto, and he's looking to rebound from his last start -- an utter disaster, as his Jays fell 19-1 to Houston. I believe he will do just that, as his teams are 8-4 in his 12 starts vs. Boston, and his career ERA in those games is 3.69. Brian Johnson started once already this season vs. Toronto, and was ineffective (7.20 ERA; 2.00 WHIP). Happ's ERA on the road this season is 2.90, and his teams are 15-4 in his 2nd half road starts the past 2 seasons. Take Toronto. MLB Road Warrior. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-17 | Brewers v. Pirates -150 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Milwaukee Brewers. Brewer fans may not be all that used to having their team in first place after the break, but they have seen this movie before and it almost never has a happy ending. Milwaukee is famous for its second half swoons and since it's unlikely that the front office will go out to acquire new talent, the fans are nothing more than cautiously optimistic at this point. The Crew lost to the woeful Phillies on Sunday in the final game of what should've been a three-game sweep and now the road gets tougher as they head to Pittsburgh for a four-game set. Last night, the Buccos took Game 1 by a 4-2 score. Tonight, RHP Ivan Nova will go for the Bucs in game two and Nova is having an outstanding campaign in his second season in Pittsburgh. He doesn't get many strikeouts, but Nova does just about everything else very well as he is one of the most efficient hurlers in the game with a walk rate of just 1.1 and two complete games already to his credit. After starting out the season pretty well, Brewers RHP Junior Guerra has really struggled recently, going 0-2 with a 10.32 ERA in his last three starts. Take the Pirates. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-17 | Padres v. Rockies -165 | Top | 6-9 | Win | 100 | 20 h 51 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over San Diego. Luis Perdomo has found no success vs. the Colorado Rockies in his career. He's 0-2 in three starts (the Padres have lost all three games), with a 5.82 ERA. Even worse: all three starts were at home at Petco, so this will be his first career start at Coors Field. German Marquez has actually fared well here at Coors this season, as he's 3-2 with a respectable 4.66 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Finally, the Padres are an awful 17-50 as a road underdog priced from +150 to +200, while Marquez is 5-1 as a favorite. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-17 | Phillies v. Marlins -150 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 19 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Miami Marlins over the Philadelphia Phillies. It's been a rough season for Marlins RHP Tom Koehler. Koehler got knocked around pretty good in the first six weeks of the season, as he posted a 1-4 record with a 7.04 ERA through May 16. It turned out he was trying to pitch through some shoulder bursitis and so Miami finally put Koehler on the DL and he missed the rest of May and all of June before returning. Unfortunately, two July starts fresh out of a minor league rehab stint didn't bring better results for the veteran. But to be fair, Koehler has faced some pretty good offensive lineups in his last four starts - the Cards (twice), Brewers, and Astros. A home start against the pathetic Phillies may be just what the doctor ordered. This will be Koehler's first time facing the Phils this season, however in five starts against them in 2016, Koehler went 2-1 with a 1.64 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 33 innings. The Phillies are 14-44 in their last 58 road games. Take the Marlins. |
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07-17-17 | Blue Jays +106 v. Red Sox | Top | 4-3 | Win | 106 | 19 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Blue Jays over Boston. Marcus Stroman will get the start tonight for the Blue Jays, and he's been the Jays' best starter this season. He's 9-5 on the season, with a 3.28 ERA. And over his last three starts, his ERA is a microscopic 1.37. In contrast, Eduardo Rodriguez has struggled over his last three outings (4.58 ERA), and also vs. the Blue Jays in his career (1-3, 6.58 ERA). Take Toronto. |
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07-16-17 | New York Yankees - Game #2 v. Boston Red Sox - Game #2 -135 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, in the 2nd game of a double-header, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. Early on, the Yankees were probably hoping that they could go into the second half contending for a playoff spot (at least a wild card) without having to make deadline trades in exchange for their prospects. After all, they were a first place team through much of the first half. But there's already bad news for them as they limped into the All Star Break, losing series to the Astros, Blue Jays, and Brewers. The news gets worse too as they just learned that RHP Michael Pineda has a turn UCL and needs Tommy John surgery.  And the Yanks lost their first game of the second half on Friday when their normally reliable closer - Aroldis Chapman - didn't retire a batter and allowed two runs in the ninth to take the loss. These teams are going to be exhausted having to play a double header today after a marathon of a game on Saturday. LH David Price seems to be building his arm strength since coming back from injury and he will start the second game of the twin bill in prime time. He has revenge on his mind after losing to the Yanks in the Bronx last month. Take the Sox. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-17 | Giants -115 v. Padres | Top | 1-7 | Loss | -115 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 4:40 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Giants over the San Diego Padres. The Chicago Cubs got the trade season going last week, and rumors continue to swirl around other teams, including the Giants. Specifically, the Giants would no doubt love to trade some of their veteran pitching in exchange for some talented young bats, especially outfielders. There likely isn't a GM - of a contending team - that doesn't think that Jeff Samardzija's incredible metrics - a league leading 1.1 walk rate and ridiculous 9.07 K:BB ratio - could help his team, despite his record and ERA. And therein lies the enigma that is the 2017 version of Samardzija. Even with those incredible metrics, the veteran RHP is just 4-10 with an ugly 4.58 ERA in his 18 starts. No doubt Samardzija would like to increase his chances of getting moved to a contender with a strong start to the second half, and this outing against the Padres might just improve his chances. Samardzija is 7-2 with a 3.13 ERA in 13 career games (11 starts) against San Diego and he is 3-1 with a 2.04 ERA in six games (five starts) here at Petco Park. Take San Fran. |
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07-16-17 | Twins v. Astros -188 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 26 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Minnesota Twins. After scoring 19 runs in their last game before the break and 10 more in the first game coming back on Friday, the Astros' offense took the night off on Saturday, plating just two in a 4-2 loss here to the Twins. This is nothing more than a minor lull as the 'Stros have the strongest hitting lineup in the Majors by far, however their pitching could use an upgrade. With the trade deadline around the corner, don't be surprised if Houston goes after a starter and one of the pitchers on the bubble right now were the 'Stros to get somebody is RH Mike Fiers. Fiers gets his 18th start of the season today and he would like to solidify his position in the Houston rotation.  And he may just be able to do that as he is 4-1 with a 3.14 ERA in eight games (seven starts) covering 43 innings against Minny. One starter the Astros won't be trying to acquire is Twins' RH Kyle Gibson. Gibson is having another sub-par campaign, having gone 5-7 with an ugly 6.31 ERA in 16 starts.  Despite Saturday's loss, the 'Stros are 7-1 in the last eight meetings. Take Houston. |
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07-15-17 | Indians -185 v. A's | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -185 | 20 h 23 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Oakland A's. Corey Kluber was an All Star for the second straight season (the second time in his career) and deservedly so. The Indians' veteran RH doesn't always get the credit he deserves at the mid-way point (he wasn't an All Star in 2014 when he won the Cy Young) so it was good to see him recognized for his body of work in the first half. Kluber didn't pitch in the game on Tuesday because he was the starter last Sunday (even though he only threw five innings in that one). Even though he's lowered his ERA with his two July starts, the month hasn't been kind to Kluber as he has only had two bad beats (to the Padres and Tigers) to show for his efforts. He'll try to get things going in the second half with his 15th start of the season tonight. Kluber has been on fire since June 1, having gone 4-1 with a 1.29 ERA and 82 strikeouts in eight starts covering 56 innings. A's rookie RH Paul Blackburn may be 1-0 with a 0.66 ERA in his two MLB starts, but he's only struck out four in 13 2/3 innings. Despite their 5-0 loss on Friday, the Tribe is still 9-3 in its last 12 road games. And Kluber has shut down the A's in his last two starts vs. them, as he's allowed 0 earned runs over 13 innings, with 17 strikeouts (and just 7 hits). Finally, the A's have won just 20 of 64 as dogs of +150 or more, including just 2 of 11 this season. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-15-17 | Phillies v. Brewers -165 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Many people thought - at the beginning of the season - that what the Brewers would be focused on right about now would be which veteran players they could move at the trade deadline to contending teams for prospects that they could build around. Instead however, what the Brew Crew is going to spend the rest of July doing is trying to hold on to their first-place standing in the NL Central, which grew to 3 1/2 games before the break. Their division rival Cubs have already made a move, acquiring LHP Jose Quintana from the White Sox, and now the Brewers need to find a way to keep winning with the group that got them to this point. And one of the big parts of that current group is RHP Jimmy Nelson. Nelson was one of the big break-out stories of the first half, as the 28-year-old pretty much developed into an ace before our eyes, going 8-4 with a 3.30 ERA in 18 starts. Most importantly, Nelson led the league in walks last season with 86, but this season he is on a pace to cut that number in half despite likely reaching close to 200 innings. His K:BB ratio sits at a career-best 4.37 (up from 1.63 in 2016). The Phillies are 4-11 in the last 15 meetings with the Crew. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-15-17 | Cubs -135 v. Orioles | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Baltimore Orioles. Chicago Cubs RHP Jake Arrieta comes back to pitch at Camden Yards for the first time since the Orioles traded him and Pedro Stroop to Chicago in exchange for Steve Clevenger and Scott Feldman in 2013. No doubt that trade still haunts the O's, especially right now as they head into the second half with what can only be described as a rotation that is a work-in-progress. Of course, Arrieta hasn't been nearly as effective this season as he has in the past and this is arguably his worst campaign since joining the Cubs. But Arrieta is a strong second half performer, having gone 31-17 (.646) with a 3.19 ERA in 70 career games (64 starts) after the break (compared to 51-36 = .586 with a 3.94 ERA in 115 pre-break starts). The O's will go with LHP Wade Miley, who started out the season very strong, going 2-3 with a 2.82 ERA in his first 11 starts through June 1. But Miley has regressed significantly since then, having lost four of his next six decisions while watching his ERA rise all the way to almost five runs (4.97). He certainly looks like he could use the extra time off that the All Break has afforded him, but there is little reason to believe that Miley will flourish in the second half given that he has an unsightly WHIP of 1.75 and a K:BB ratio of just 1.57. Take the Cubbies. |
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07-14-17 | Mariners -160 v. White Sox | Top | 4-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Chicago White Sox. Mariners LHP James Paxton started out the season as one of the hottest starters in the AL, not allowing a run in his first three starts and going 3-0 with a 1.39 ERA in five starts through the first month of the season. But injuries slowed Paxton in May and although he was able to return before the end of that month, Paxton didn't quite look the same throughout June. Paxton was getting it together however in his two July starts before the break, going 2-0 with a 2.03 ERA and 0.67 WHIP in victories over the Angels and A's. The time between the All Star game and end of the month is always interesting as teams wishing to make trades before the deadline begin to get serious. And it's the White Sox who have made the first significant move this season, sending veteran LHP Jose Quintana to the Cubs in exchange for four prospects including talented OF Eloy Jimenez. They will send RHP James Shields to the mound tonight for his eighth start of the season. The veteran teased the Sox early on with a solid month of April, but has regressed significantly over his past four starts, including a 1-1 record and 9.00 ERA over his last three. Shields hasn't pitched since a July 4 Chicago loss in Oakland and he has never performed well off of significant rest of six days or more (8-19 with a 4.95 ERA). Take the M's. Mound Mismatch Massacre of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-17 | Rockies v. Mets -152 | Top | 2-14 | Win | 100 | 1 h 17 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Colorado Rockies. Mets RHP Jacob deGrom had a first half that was probably worthy of an All Star nod as the veteran went 9-3 with a 3.65 ERA and 130 strikeouts in 111 innings, which is one of the best strikeout rates in the NL. But it was OF Michael Conforto who was the lone selection from the Mets and deGrom instead got to take some time off. He's clearly now established himself as the ace of this staff especially with the injury to Noah Syndergaard which continues to keep the hard-throwing teammate on the shelf in the second half of the season. So it's been deGrom who has become not only the best starter on the Mets, but also the de-facto leader of the staff, and he'll definitely have something to prove in the remaining 2 1/2 months, even if the Mets don't seem to be going anywhere. He gets start number 18 tonight and it will be at home where he has done his best work this season, going 4-2 with a 2.56 ERA in eight starts (vs. a 4.63 ERA in nine starts elsewhere). He's also been pretty spectacular in his career vs. the Rockies, going 2-0 with a sparkling 0.95 ERA in four starts covering just over 28 innings against them. The Rox are 3-11 in their last 14 meetings at CitiField. Take the Mets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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