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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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07-21-19 | White Sox v. Rays -265 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox. This will be rookie Dylan Cease's 3rd career start for the White Sox. And he's not been effective in his first two outings. He's surrendered 12 hits, five walks and nine runs (seven earned) in just 11 innings (5.73 ERA; 1.54 WHIP). And those two games were against two of the worst teams in baseball (Royals; Tigers). This afternoon, he'll have to face the Rays and their Cy Young award-winning hurler, Blake Snell. Snell's not having as good a season as he did in 2018, but he's been terrific lately, with a 2.25 ERA and 0.93 WHIP over his last three starts (all Tampa wins). Snell is also a perfect 3-0 in his five career starts vs. Chicago, with a 1.07 ERA and 1.02 WHIP. Take Tampa Bay. |
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07-21-19 | Royals v. Indians -220 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 6 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. With the injuries that Cleveland has had to its rotation, it's quite a tribute to the Tribe that it's been able to be competitive this season. That's because some of the young pitchers the Indians have had to rely on have performed very well for them. Case in point is rookie RHP Zach Plesac, who the Indians selected in the 12th round of the 2016 draft from Ball State University. Plesac is 3-3 with a 3.56 ERA in nine starts covering 48 innings. More important is the fact that he is 2-1 with a 2.82 ERA in four starts here at home (22 1/3 innings) vs. just 1-2 and 4.21 in five road starts (25 2/3 IP). The Tribe hitters couldn't solve KC's Jake Junis yesterday. But prior to that shutout, they had plated plenty of runners this season against the Royals. In the eight previous match-ups leading up to Saturday, Cleveland had scored a total of 53 runs -- or almost seven per game. Finally, the Royals are 8-24 in the last 32 meetings in Cleveland. Take the Indians. |
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07-20-19 | Angels -131 v. Mariners | Top | 6-2 | Win | 100 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 9:10 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over Seattle. For this game, please only list Anaheim's starter, Griffin Canning. Yesterday, the Mariners played one of their best games of the season, as they won 10-0 vs. Anaheim, with starter Mike Leake coming within three outs of a perfect game. But off that horrible offensive performance, I look for the Angels to rebound strongly tonight against a Mariners team which had lost six straight (and 13 of 15) going into this series. The Angels will hand the ball to RHP Canning (4.74 ERA), while Seattle will use one of its relievers for the opening inning, before turning it over to LHP Wade LeBlanc (5.15 ERA). There's no doubt that Canning has been maddeningly inconsistent this season. Still, the 23-year-old has struck out 71 batters in just 66 1-3 innings, and he has a 1.19 WHIP. Meanwhile, LeBlanc started against the Angels just seven days ago, and got bombed, as he gave up 10 hits and six runs in just four innings of a 9-2 Anaheim victory. Take the Angels. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-19 | Brewers +125 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 8-3 | Win | 125 | 16 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over Arizona. This is a great matchup between two teams with post-season hopes. And both will turn to veteran pitchers tonight. Milwaukee will hand the ball to its southpaw, Gio Gonzalez, while Arizona will turn to Zack Greinke. Unfortunately for the Diamondbacks, Greinke has had scant success facing the Brewers, as he's 1-4 in seven starts, with a 4.28 ERA. And his teams are 2-5 in those seven games. In contrast, Gonzalez is 3-1 with a 2.93 ERA in eight starts vs. Arizona -- and his teams are 6-2 in those eight games. Take the underdog Brewers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-20-19 | Nationals +143 v. Braves | Top | 5-3 | Win | 143 | 15 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Atlanta Braves. Nats starter Anibal Sanchez had quite a run recently. In eight starts between May 16 and July 4, the 35-year-old RH allowed one ER or less in six of those. And not surprisingly, the Nationals went 7-1 in those eight starts. Sanchez stumbled a bit in his last outing against the Phillies on the road, but he still managed to post a quality start in that one (6 IP with 3 ER). Tonight, in his 18th start of the season, Sanchez will face the team for which he pitched one season in 2018. It will be Sanchez's second start of the season at SunTrust Park. And in his first one, Sanchez threw six scoreless innings on May 29, allowing just one hit while striking out seven and walking one in a 14-4 Nats blowout victory. Despite their loss here on Friday night, the Nats are 6-3 in the last nine meetings with the Braves and 5-1 in the last six meetings here in Atlanta. The Nats are also 23-8 in their last 31 games vs. teams with a RH starter and 13-4 in their last 17 road games vs. the same. Take Washington. |
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07-20-19 | A's v. Twins -139 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -139 | 15 h 58 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. Jose Berrios is following up his 2018 breakout season with an even better campaign so far in 2019. For the second straight season, the 25-year-old Puerto Rican RHP has made the All Star team. And over his first 19 starts of 2019 he is 8-5 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 122 innings coming into tonight. Berrios has also done by far his best work here at home as he is 5-2 with a sparkling 2.32 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in eight starts at Target Field (vs. 3-3 and 3.72 in 11 starts on the road). Finally, the Twins are 25-8 in Berrios' last 33 home starts, including 9-3 his last 12 home starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Minnesota. |
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07-20-19 | Rangers +178 v. Astros | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. Few people can be surprised with the fact that more than halfway through the season the Houston Astros -- along with the New York Yankees -- are the cream of the AL crop. The Astros won a close one on Friday night, beating this Rangers team by a 4-3 final thanks to some early runs and a bullpen that was able shut down the Rangers late in the game. Tonight, it's the same two clubs meeting in Texas, with RHP Ariel Jurado going for the Rangers. The 23-year-old RH from Panama will get the 19th start of his professional baseball career tonight in a game that actually means something to the Rangers as their winning record has them in the hunt for an AL Wild Card spot. With Brad Peacock having been placed on the IL with a shoulder injury, the Astros will call up Jose Urquidy for the start tonight. The 24-year-old has two previous starts with the team this season and the results have not been good as Urquidy has a 10.50 ERA and 2.50 ERA in just six innings pitched. Take the Rangers. |
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07-20-19 | White Sox v. Rays -152 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -152 | 7 h 50 m | Show |
At 6:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Chicago. The White Sox had dropped seven straight games prior to last night's win. But I look for Chicago to resume its losing ways this evening. Sox starter Lucas Giolito got off to a super start this season, with his team going 11-2 in his first 13 starts. But the wheels have come off lately, as the White Sox have lost four of his last five starts. And he's given up 18 runs in those five games (6.48 ERA). Take Tampa Bay. |
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07-19-19 | Marlins v. Dodgers -280 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 21 h 42 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Miami Marlins. Last Sunday night when the Red Sox and Dodgers played, many thought the match-up would be a battle royal of two of the premier southpaws in the game with runs hard to come by. But the David Price vs. Hyun-Jin Ryu meeting didn't turn out that way with five first-inning runs before the two hurlers settled down with the Dodgers taking a 7-4 victory in 12 innings. Ryu goes back out tonight and no doubt he will be happy to be facing the Marlins at home as opposed to pitching at Fenway. Right now, Ryu is the favorite for the NL Cy Young award, as he has done little wrong, posting a 10-2 record with a league-best 1.78 ERA in his 18 starts. The Marlins will go with rookie RHP Zac Gallen who has yet to put up a W in his first four MLB starts and it's very unlikely he will do so tonight against the best team in the league -- and arguably the best pitcher in the game right now. Ignore the fact that the Marlins are 4-1 in the last five meetings with the Dodgers as they -- and Gallen -- have a huge mountain to climb tonight. Take L.A. |
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07-19-19 | Rangers +202 v. Astros | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 16 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. It's no surprise that RHP Justin Verlander was an All-Star this season. After all, Verlander has now made eight appearances in the mid-summer classic and deservedly so. But this year was the first All-Star appearance for the Rangers veteran LHP Mike Minor. The 31-year-old southpaw is having one of his best campaigns since he came into the Majors back in 2010. In 19 starts, Minor is 8-4 with a 2.73 ERA and he has a league-leading two complete games to boot. And here's an amazing stat: Minor has identical statistics in 10 home starts as he does in nine on the road -- 4-2 with a 2.73 ERA. That kind of consistency is hard to come by these days in the Majors. As good as Verlander has been this season, Minor's 2.73 ERA is actually better than the 2.98 number Verlander has put up in his 20 starts. The Rangers are 4-1 in Minor's last five road starts and 5-1 in his last six road starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-19 | Nationals v. Braves +116 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 116 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the Washington Nationals. We had hoped to have a play last night on the Atlanta Braves, but it was cancelled after Atlanta scratched its starter, Julio Teheran, from that game, and moved his start to tonight. The good news for Teheran is that he will have a MUCH easier match-up tonight vs. the Nationals' Patrick Corbin (compared to Stephen Strasburg last night). As I wrote yesterday, Teheran is proving very difficult to hit. Over the last two seasons, the 28-year-old has posted a hit rate well under one per inning. And his control issues have seemingly turned a corner since the beginning of the month. In two July starts, Teheran has allowed two ER on eight hits in 12 combined innings with 12 strikeouts but just three walks. When he pitches like that, the Braves offense is more than capable of winning games -- as they have in both of those starts. This will be Teheran's first start of the season vs. the Nats and he's had some decent success against them in his career. The Braves are 7-2 in Teheran's last nine starts overall and 7-3 in his last 10 vs. teams with a winning record. He's also done his best work at home this season, with a 2.66 ERA in Atlanta over eight starts. And that bodes well tonight vs. Corbin, whose ERA on the road this season is 5.17 over 10 starts. The Braves are a perfect 3-0 at home this season off 3+ losses. Take Atlanta. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-19-19 | White Sox v. Rays -240 | Top | 9-2 | Loss | -240 | 9 h 34 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Chicago White Sox. The Tampa Bay Rays' fortunes with top draft picks and young players in their minor league system are well documented at this point. The problem is, these young studs rarely stick around long enough to bring the team prolonged success. Enter the latest Boy Wonder, LHP Brendan McKay. To call him a pitcher is perhaps a bit unfair as McKay -- who was a first round pick in 2017 -- has been a two-way player right up until his call-up by the Rays last month. But the way he's going, it's pretty clear that McKay's future in the Majors will be as a pitcher and not swinging a bat. The 23-year-old is 1-0 with a 1.69 ERA and 0.69 WHIP in three starts covering 16 innings so far in his MLB career. McKay gets a chance for career win #2 tonight at home where he beat the Rangers in his first start back on June 29. The Sox will go with RHP Reynaldo Lopez and they are 7-15 in his last 22 starts vs. teams with a winning record. Chicago is also a dismal 7-20 in Lopez's last 27 starts following a Quality Start in his last appearance. Take Tampa. |
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07-18-19 | A's v. Twins -135 | Top | 3-6 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. At the ripe age of 31, Twins RHP Kyle Gibson is having arguably his best season. Gibson is 8-4 in 19 games (18 starts), which puts him on pace to break his career high in victories (13 in 2014). He also has career-bests in strikeout rate (9.1), walk rate (2.7), and as a result, a 3.41 K:BB ratio which is a personal best as well. Start number 19 will come against the A's tonight and RHP Mike Fiers. In five career starts vs. Oakland, Gibson is 2-2 with a solid 3.81 ERA in just over 28 innings. Gibson has enjoyed home cooking this season as in nine appearances at Target Field (eight starts), he is 5-1 with a 3.69 ERA and 1.04 WHIP in just over 46 innings. Gibson only lasted 3 2/3 innings in his last start against the Indians in Cleveland but that could bode well for tonight's game. The Twins are 15-6 in Gibson's last 21 starts overall, but they are 9-1 in his last 10 following an outing of less than four innings in his last appearance. And they're 46-26 (+16 games on the money line) vs. right-handed starters. Take Minnesota. MLB Game of the Month! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-18-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +102 | Top | 6-7 | Win | 102 | 10 h 13 m | Show |
At 12:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. This afternoon's game will wrap up a wild four-game series between the Dodgers and Phillies that has included just about everything (including a lengthy rain delay yesterday). The finale will feature Philadelphia's ace, RHP Aaron Nola. Nola probably won't win a Cy Young this season, but he is still having another very strong campaign, going 8-2 with a 3.63 ERA in just under 117 innings. More important for this matinee today is the fact that Nola is undefeated in day games this season. In seven afternoon starts covering 40 2/3 innings, Nola is 4-0 with a 3.32 ERA. Speaking of undefeated, Nola also has yet to taste defeat against tonight's opponents. In three career starts vs. the Dodgers covering 19 innings, Nola is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.89 WHIP, while the Phillies are 3-0 in those starts. Finally, the Phils are 10-4 in Nola's last 14 starts overall and 8-1 in his last nine vs. teams from the National League West. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-19 | Astros +170 v. Angels | Top | 11-2 | Win | 170 | 12 h 7 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Los Angeles Angels. Please note: for this ballgame, we will only list the Astros' starter, Gerrit Cole, and NOT specify the Angels' starter. When the Astros acquired Cole from the Pirates before the 2018 season, they were hoping that the veteran RHP would bring them a second straight World Series title. That didn't happen. But Cole has a great opportunity still to get a ring with Houston, and certainly nobody would be surprised if he did. Cole's individual achievements are impressive, as the 28-year-old is 9-5 with a 3.23 ERA and 1.03 WHIP, with a league-leading 183 strikeouts in just under 123 innings. Cole is also 4-1 with a very impressive 3.02 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in seven appearances (all starts), covering just under 45 innings vs. the Angels. Finally, Houston is 42-21 in the last 63 meetings with the Halos. Take the Astros. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-17-19 | Diamondbacks v. Rangers +111 | Top | 19-4 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over Arizona. Jesse Chavez has made eight starts this season. And he's been fairly effective, with a 3.99 ERA and a 0.98 WHIP. His strikeout to walk ratio is also exceptional (28K, 4BB). Tonight, he'll make his second career start vs. the Diamondbacks. He was solid in his first one, as he gave up just one earned run over five innings. Chavez will face Diamondbacks' lefty Robbie Ray tonight. Ray's made four previous starts vs. Texas, and owns an ERA north of five runs per game (5.06) in those starts. The Rangers have been installed as a home underdog for this game. We'll grab the home team, as they're 31-20 (+16 games on the money line) this season here, in Arlington (including 17-12 (+13 games on the money line) as a home dog). Take Texas. |
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07-17-19 | Dodgers -145 v. Phillies | Top | 7-2 | Win | 100 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Philadelphia Phillies. Dodgers' RHP Kenta Maeda hasn't been able to duplicate his rookie season. In 2016, the now 31-year-old came into the Majors from Japan and promptly won 16 games with a 3.48 ERA and finished third in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. The next two seasons didn't match that success. But so far in 2019, Maeda is having a very strong campaign. For example, Maeda's hit rate is at a career low this season (6.7 per 9 IP), while he has maintained a strikeout rate of at least one per inning.  He also has seven career starts vs. the Phillies and he is 4-1 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in those while the Dodgers are 5-2. Take L.A. |
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07-17-19 | Pirates v. Cardinals -127 | Top | 5-6 | Win | 100 | 12 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Cards' starting pitcher this afternoon -- RHP Daniel Ponce de Leon -- has the distinction of being drafted by four different Major League clubs over the past five years, starting with the Rays in 2010 and ending with his current team, which selected him in June of 2014. It seems it wasn't a bad choice as Ponce de Leon has posted a 2.37 ERA in 18 appearances, including eight starts, in a season-and-a-half with the Cards. He'll get MLB start number nine today at Busch Stadium, a ballpark at which Ponce de Leon has had success with a 2.94 ERA in nine games (five starts) covering just under 34 innings. The Pirates will couner with Chris Archer. The veteran RHP has struggled over his last four campaigns and it appears 2019 will be no different. In his first full season with the Bucs, Archer is 3-6 with a 5.42 ERA in 16 starts covering just under 85 innings. Despite their win on Tuesday, the Pirates are just 8-15 in the last 23 meetings with the Cards. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-19 | Braves v. Brewers -153 | Top | 1-13 | Win | 100 | 18 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. There were plenty of first-time All-Stars this season, but none was more deserving than the Brewers' third-year pitcher, RHP Brandon Woodruff. The 26-year-old has done little wrong so far in 2019, logging a 10-3 record with a 3.67 ERA, 1.14 WHIP and very strong 5.04 K:BB ratio in 18 starts covering 108 innings. Start number 19 comes against a team which Woodruff had one of his best starts of the season. On May 19, Woodruff threw eight strong innings in Atlanta, allowing two runs on five hits with six strikeouts and no walks. Although the Brewers won the game, 3-2, Woodruff took a no-decision.  To that end, it's important to note that the Brew Crew is 14-4 in Woodruff's trips to the mound this season, indicating just how strong the Milwaukee offense is this season. Here is another impressive stat: The Brewers are 11-1 in Woodruff's last 12 home starts coming into tonight. Finally, they are also 10-2 in their last 12 home games vs. teams with a road win percentage greater than .600. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-16-19 | Dodgers v. Phillies +176 | Top | 8-9 | Win | 176 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. I have all the respect in the world for the Dodgers' starter, Walker Buehler, as I think he's one of the three most talented pitchers in the league. But this is a big price for him to lay on the road. And especially against a team which bombed him last season for 5 runs in 4 2-3 innings (9.64 ERA). This season, Buehler's road ERA is 3.76, while Vincent Velasquez's ERA in his home starts is 3.95, with a 1.02 WHIP. The Phillies have been underdogs in seven of their last eight home games vs. Los Angeles, yet are 5-3 (+6 games on the money line) in those games. Take the Phillies as a huge home dog on Tuesday night. |
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07-16-19 | Rays v. Yankees -154 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 8 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Tampa Bay Rays. How satisfying would it be if, in perhaps his final season in the Majors, future Hall of Famer CC Sabathia were to win his second World Series ring? At the very least, it must be at least a little daunting for a team (like Tampa Bay) to know that it will be facing the active pitcher with the most wins in the league (251). And the fact that Sabathia can still bring it only adds to that intimidation factor. There are plenty of starters in the league who would love to have a winning record (5-4 in Sabathia's case) with a 4.03 ERA after 14 starts. So, the fact that this is far from the veteran southpaw's best season doesn't really matter at this point. Sabathia still has some life left in that left arm and perhaps the most telling stat is the fact that Yanks are 8-6 in his starts this season. He also has some very good numbers against the Rays, with 18 wins and a 3.59 ERA in 52 career starts covering a whopping 338 innings. And Sabathia hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his last eight starts vs. the Rays going back to July of 2017. Take the Yankees. |
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07-15-19 | Braves v. Brewers +106 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Atlanta Braves. The Brewers are likely in the market for a starting pitcher in the next two weeks as the non-waiver trade deadline approaches. But until they get one, they will keep sending guys like journeyman RHP Adrian Houser out to the mound to fill out the back end of their rotation. Houser is a 26-year-old who's been in the league since 2015, and has primarily been used as a reliever this season. Indeed, he's had just five starts this year. Admittedly, Houser's walk rate is probably too high for him to ever ascend to the top of any rotation. But he also possesses a very high strikeout rate and he seems to be getting better with every bit of experience the Crew is willing to give him. This will be his sixth start of the season but only his third at home, where Houser has done by far his best work of 2019. In eight appearances here (two starts) Houser has a 1.88 ERA in just over 18 innings. LHP Max Fried started out hot for the Braves, but in his last eight starts, Fried has allowed 29 runs on 60 hits in 42 1/3 innings raising his ERA from 2.88 to 4.29. Milwaukee's 127-89 (+20 games on the money line) at home, and 52-35 its last 87 vs. NL East division foes. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Astros v. Rangers +192 | Top | 12-4 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Houston Astros. Ariel Jurado is a 23-year old, second-year starter for the Rangers who potentially has a bright future in the Majors -- a future that could last quite a long time. Sure, Jurado's numbers this season don't jump off the page at you -- a 5-4 record with a 4.23 ERA in 19 games, (nine starts). But when you consider that that ERA is almost two runs below his number in 2018 (5.93), then you can see what an improvement Jurado has made between last season and this. After seven shutout innings in his last start in June, Jurado looked like he might have a serious breakout, but he threw in a big clunker in his next start and was "rewarded" with a trip back to the bullpen on July 7 -- throwing 2 1/3 scoreless innings in a Rangers victory. The young RH will come back to the rotation this afternoon to face a very good Astros team. But it's also a team he's done well against in his career, going 1-0 with a 0.93 ERA in three games (one start) vs. Houston. The Rangers have taken four of the last five meetings between these Lone Star state rivals, and are a live underdog this afternoon. Take the Rangers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-14-19 | Nationals v. Phillies -107 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 22 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Nats came back and won on Saturday night, thanks to a bullpen meltdown by the Phillies. Thus, Washington will go for the series sweep on the road this afternoon, behind one of its hottest pitchers in RH Anibal Sanchez. The Phils will counter with veteran RH Jake Arrieta, who got knocked around pretty good before the All-Star break thanks to some elbow issues. But the 33-year-old is one of the toughest players in the league and he used the break to heal up a bit and has been cleared for this start today. One thing that's given Sanchez fits in the past has been pitching at Citizens Bank Park. In 14 appearances here (all starts), Sanchez is 2-8 with an ugly 5.18 ERA and 1.57 WHIP in just under 75 innings. And he's also 5-11 with a 4.49 ERA in 23 career starts vs. the Phillies covering just over 124 innings. Meanwhile, despite Arrieta's recent struggles, the Phils are 4-2 in his six starts since the beginning of June and they haven't lost one of his home starts in almost two months (May 15 vs. Milwaukee). Take Philadelphia. |
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07-14-19 | Blue Jays v. Yankees -205 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Toronto Blue Jays. Two All Star starters from the AL squad will face off this afternoon as RH Marcus Stroman and the Jays finish off this three-game series in the Bronx against the Yankees and RH Masahiro Tanaka. While Stroman pitched like an All-Star right up to the break, Tanaka certainly did not. The mid-summer break couldn't have come at a better time for Tanaka, who has posted an 8.31 ERA in his last three. But most of that damage was due to a particularly ugly start on June 29 in London against the Red Sox (6 ER in 0.2 IP). If you take that one out of the mix, Tanaka's recent numbers look pretty good (and the Yanks are 3-0 in those last three starts anyway). The fact that he has a 3.86 ERA overall tells you how well Tanaka has pitched aside from that disaster in London. And Tanaka loves pitching against the Jays as he is 11-5 with a 2.87 ERA and 1.05 WHIP in 18 starts against them. Moreover, those 11 wins are the most he's posted against any opponent. Despite the loss on Saturday, the Yankees are still 5-1 in the last six meetings. Take New York. |
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07-13-19 | Giants v. Brewers -120 | Top | 4-5 | Win | 100 | 14 h 38 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. Zach Davies may have felt a little upset after being snubbed for an NL All-Star Team spot last week. After all, the 26-year-old RHP is 7-2 with a 3.07 ERA in 18 starts. And those are better stats than some of the pitchers who got picked to represent the NL -- which lost to the AL in the game, 4-3. But if Davies feels that way, then the best thing he can do is prove the rest of this season that he should've been selected for the mid-summer classic. He'll go up against a guy who's made four All Star appearances in his career in 29-year-old Madison Bumgarner. If Bumgarner was trying to impress potential trade suitors this season by presenting himself as an attractive veteran southpaw, then he has a lot of work to do. Mad-Bum is just 5-7 with a 4.03 ERA in his 19 starts so far. And he's been much worse on the road, going 2-5 with a 4.60 ERA in eight starts away from Oracle Park (as opposed to 3-2 and 3.62 in 11 starts in San Fran). The Giants are also an awful 8-20 in Bumgarner's last 28 starts away from home. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-13-19 | Dodgers +158 v. Red Sox | Top | 11-2 | Win | 158 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Boston Red Sox. Dodgers RHP Ross Stripling began the season in the L.A. rotation. But he didn't last even the first month in that role, though it was due to no fault of his own as Stripling compiled a 2.65 ERA over his first six starts covering 34 innings. But some injured starters returned to the rotation and Stripling found himself in the bullpen at the end of April. After a bad outing in his last appearance in April, Stripling settled down and didn't allow more than one earned run in any single bullpen outing from the beginning of May through June 20, picking up two wins (vs. no losses) along the way. Now Stripling has found himself back in the rotation thanks to a forearm injury to LHP Rich Hill, who likely won't be back until late August. So far, Stripling's latest stint as a starter hasn't gone as he would have liked. But perhaps a start against the Red Sox will help turn things around. In 16 career inter-league appearances (four starts), Stripling is 5-2 with a 3.05 ERA and 0.97 WHIP in just over 41 innings. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are a horrid 6-12 (minus 19 games on the money line) with southpaw Chris Sale on the mound this season. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-12-19 | Giants v. Brewers -183 | Top | 10-7 | Loss | -183 | 19 h 41 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Francisco Giants. It's a match-up of a pair of right-handed Andersons as Shaun takes the mound for the Giants opposite Chase and the Brewers tonight, in Milwaukee. It's widely believed that the Giants will be shopping a bunch of players from now through the deadline (and beyond) with almost no veteran safe from being moved if the price is right. For now , however, the Giants are just a bad team instead of the terrible (think Orioles) team they will be after their fire sale. Not only do the two starters tonight have the same last name, but they also have remarkably similar stats in 2019. Shaun is 3-2 with a 4.23 ERA in 10 starts, while Chase is 4-2 with a 4.32 ERA in 17 games (12 starts). But we'll back Milwaukee, as it has the far superior offense backing its pitcher tonight. The Giants are also 3-7 in the last 10 meetings and 1-5 in the last six in Milwaukee. Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-12-19 | Dodgers -101 v. Red Sox | Top | 1-8 | Loss | -101 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over Boston. This is a great match-up between two of the best teams in baseball. Unfortunately for Boston, it has not excelled vs. the better clubs (though it has beat up on the weak teams). Indeed, Boston is a wallet-busting 15-20 (minus 10 games on the money line) vs. winning teams this season. Even worse, the Red Sox are a horrid 0-7 this year at home in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125. Los Angeles has been very good vs. lefties (99-59), and handled Eduardo Rodriguez very well in a 9-6 victory in last season's World Series. Take the Dodgers at Fenway Park tonight. |
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07-12-19 | Twins +129 v. Indians | Top | 5-3 | Win | 129 | 18 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Cleveland Indians. No team has had a run the last few weeks like the Indians. The Tribe is red-hot, having won six in a row, pulling within 5 1/2 games of the Twins entering the break. However, let's keep in mind that this is also a very banged-up squad which has a way of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory, as we've seen many times before. The Twins will open the second half with RHP Kyle Gibson getting his 18th start tonight, and it's been a very successful season so far for the 31-year-old. Gibson is 8-4 with a 4.09 ERA and, so far in two July starts, he has posted his best ERA of any month at 2.57. The Tribe's RH Mike Clevinger is very talented for sure, but a negative trend stand out. Cleveland is just 2-9 in his last 11 starts vs. winning teams. Take Minnesota. |
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07-07-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -154 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -154 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. Joey Lucchesi has not pitched well on the road this season. In six starts, his ERA in north of 6 runs per game (6.10). He'll match up against the Dodgers' RHP Ross Stripling, who has a 2.96 ERA in four home starts this season. Even better for Los Angeles: it's won each of Stripling's last five starts. And the Dodgers are also 37-11 (+18 games on the money line) at home this season, and 17-5 (+10 games on the money line) in day games. Take the Dodgers. |
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07-07-19 | Rockies -126 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -126 | 14 h 34 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over Arizona. German Marquez will start for the Rockies, which bodes well for the road team this afternoon. Colorado's won each of Marquez's last five starts vs. Arizona, and the Rockies are also a solid 25-13 (+9 games on the money line) as a favorite of -110 or higher this season, including 11-3 with Marquez on the mound. And they're 31-15 (+12 games on the money line) as a favorite of -110+ with Marquez over the last three seasons, and 6-0 in his daytime starts this year. Take the Rockies. |
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07-07-19 | Cardinals -119 v. Giants | Top | 0-1 | Loss | -119 | 13 h 28 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over San Francisco. The Giants' veteran RHP Jeff Samardzija has been dreadful over the last few years, as he's 6-15 in his last 21 decisions. And the Giants have lost seven of his last 10 starts. This game is near Pk'em, which happens to also be one of Samardzija's worst performance categories, as his teams have gone 42-73 (minus 32 games on the money line) when priced between -125 and +125 with him on the hill. Meanwhile, the Cardinals are 25-10 this season when priced as a favorite of -150 or less, including 11-3 as a road favorite. Take St. Louis. |
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07-07-19 | Marlins v. Braves -210 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 1:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over Miami. Southpaw Dallas Keuchel will make his 2nd home start for the Braves this afternoon (and 4th start, overall). In his other home start, he gave up just 2 earned runs over seven innings vs. the Phillies. This afternoon, he'll face a lesser foe in the Marlins, who have lost five of their last six games. Keuchel's career ERA vs. the Fish is 1.50, while his mound opponent -- Trevor Richards -- is 0-3 lifetime vs. Atlanta. This season, Atlanta is 41-20 (+14 games on the money line) as a favorite. Take the Braves. |
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07-07-19 | Brewers -103 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -103 | 11 h 58 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. Despite some average numbers, it appears that RHP Chase Anderson's spot in the Brewers' rotation is safe -- at least until they find a better option. Anderson is 4-2 with a 4.31 ERA overall this season and 3-2 with a 4.27 number as a starter (11 starts). Anderson has 16 career starts against the Pirates and he is 8-4 with a 3.56 ERA in just over 83 innings in those. And those eight victories represent the most that he's logged against any opponent. Pittsburgh will go with RHP Joe Musgrove, who has a slightly better ERA than Anderson but who's been on the short end more often than not with a 6-7 record in 17 starts. Musgrove has faced the Brewers three times in his career and the results have not been pretty. He is 0-1 with a 7.13 ERA and 1.70 WHIP in just under 18 innings. And PNC Park has not been kind to him as he is 7-9 with a 4.62 ERA in 20 starts here covering 115 innings. Despite the loss on Saturday, the Crew is 8-2 in the last 10 meetings and they are 8-2 in Anderson's last 10 starts against them. Milwaukee is a super 70-45 (+15 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150 or less. Take the Brewers. |
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07-07-19 | Yankees +106 v. Rays | Top | 1-2 | Loss | -100 | 10 h 2 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over Tampa Bay. The Yankees are 57-30 this season, so anytime they're installed as an underdog, they're certainly worth consideration. Yesterday, they lost, 4-3, to Tampa Bay. But that was the first time in seven games that the Rays defeated the Yankees. Indeed, the Yankees have dominated division rivals, as they're 29-8 their last 37 vs. American League East division foes. This afternoon, Tampa will face southpaw James Paxton for the fourth time in his career. Unfortunately for the Rays, they're 0-3 in the first three. Even worse, over the last three seasons, Paxton's teams have excelled in the underdog role with him on the mound, as they've cashed 64% of the time. With the Rays just 5-12 this season as as home favorite of -150 or less, we'll fade Tampa Bay on this Sunday. Take the Yankees. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-19 | Padres v. Dodgers -150 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -150 | 20 h 22 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the San Diego Padres. Dodgers' RHP Kenta Maeda had a rare stumble in his last start, lasting just 4 1/3 innings while allowing two runs on three hits. But those numbers really aren't that bad when you consider that that outing -- his 16th start of the season -- was at Coors Field. The veteran Japanese starter is still 7-4 with a 3.78 ERA and 1.10 WHIP on the season. And tonight he gets another start at his home ballpark, where he has excelled this season. In seven starts at Dodger Stadium, Maeda is 5-1 with a superb 2.05 ERA and 0.84 WHIP in 44 innings. In contrast, Maeda has a 2-3 record and 5.52 ERA on the road this season. Even better: tonight's game is against a Padres team which has plated just 18 runs in its last six games. And the Padres are an ugly 16-38 in their last 54 meetings with the Dodgers. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-06-19 | Rangers +148 v. Twins | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 12 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Minnesota Twins. There were several surprise teams in the first half of the season, but none more so than the Rangers. Many picked Texas to finish in the cellar of the division -- well under a .500 record. But a little more than halfway through the season and the Rangers are 47-41. Almost as surprising as the team itself is the performance of reliever/spot starter Jesse Chavez. The 35-year-old RHP is 3-3 with a 2.97 ERA and 1.18 WHIP in 36 appearances covering just under 58 innings. More impressive -- and more relevant for this afternoon -- is the fact that Chavez is 1-1 with a 1.42 ERA in his six starts. Additionally, in his career, he is a perfect 2-0 vs. the Twins, with a sparkling 2.35 ERA in 11 games (including three starts). And here, at Target Field, Chavez has allowed just one earned run in 18 1/3 innings in four appearances (two starts). That equates to an ERA of 0.49. The Twins will go with RHP Michael Pineda this afternoon, and they are 1-4 in his last five starts vs. winning teams. And Pineda's a horrid 0-4 in his five career starts, with a 5.66 ERA, vs. the Rangers. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-05-19 | Rangers v. Twins -163 | Top | 6-15 | Win | 100 | 20 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Texas Rangers. It seem lately that the Twins can do no wrong when it comes to signing small free agent contracts for reasonable amounts with veteran starters who have had less-than-stellar careers. One of the latest examples is LHP Martin Perez, who signed a $7 million contract with Minny back at the end of January (following seven years with Texas). The veteran southpaw is 7-3 with a 4.15 ERA in 17 games including 14 starts covering 89 innings so far this season. And tonight will be Perez's first career start against the only other team for which he's played. Perez has found his new home ballpark to his liking as he is 3-2 with a 3.42 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in eight games here (seven starts). (In contrast, he has a 4.97 ERA and 1.58 WHIP in nine games on the road.) The Twins are a super 35-16 in their last 51 home games. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-05-19 | Phillies +177 v. Mets | Top | 7-2 | Win | 177 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. The Phillies had a very a rough period in mid-June. In a two-week stretch between June 9 and June 23, the Phils lost 11 of 13 games, dropping them almost to the .500 mark for the season. But since then, the Phillies have rebounded, going 6-4 over their last 10 games coming into this weekend series. Veteran RHP Vince Velasquez will go to the hill for the Phils tonight. And although his numbers so far this season are nothing to write home about (2-5 with a 4.73 ERA in 19 games including nine starts), he loves pitching in Queens. In six starts at Citi Field, covering 32 innings, Velasquez is 2-1 with a very nice 2.53 ERA and 1.16 WHIP. Start #7 for him here won't be easy given that Jacob deGrom is going to the mound for the home team. But the Mets have really been struggling lately. In their last 10 games, New York is just 2-8. The Mets are also 1-6 in deGrom's last seven starts and 1-7 in his last eight vs. teams with a winning record. Take the Phils. |
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07-05-19 | Brewers -114 v. Pirates | Top | 7-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Pittsburgh Pirates. 1-0 final scores in the Majors are rare these days, but the Brewers played one yesterday, getting shut out in Cincinnati by the Reds and their ace, Luis Castillo. Don't expect a 1-0 game tonight, especially with the way the Pirates have been scoring lately. But the Brew Crew has a big advantage on the mound, with veteran RHP Zach Davies getting the start opposite LHP Steven Brault of the Pirates. In 17 starts this season, Davies is 7-2 with a 3.24 ERA in just under 92 innings. And while Brault's numbers this season aren't bad (3-1 with a 4.29 in 14 games including eight starts) he has faltered quite a bit at PNC Park. In six games here (three starts), Brault is winless (0-1) and has posted an ugly 4.84 ERA. In 33 career games here at home -- including 10 starts -- Brault is 3-3 with a 5.08 ERA in just under 96 innings. Heading into this weekend series, the Brewers are 7-1 in the last eight meetings. And they're also 103-63 (+26 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Milwaukee. |
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07-04-19 | Phillies +143 v. Braves | Top | 6-12 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 12 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. For Phillies RHP Zach Eflin, 2019 has been a glass-half-empty/glass-half-full season so far. On the positive side, there is the fact that the 25-year-old has a 3.34 ERA in his 16 starts. He also has a league-leading two complete games, including one shutout. But on the not-so-positive side is Eflin's 7-7 record. And he's also allowed 15 home runs, which is one behind his career-high in a full season (16 in 2017 & 2018). But if there's anything that could jump-start Eflin's season as we head into the second half, then it's a start against the Braves. In three career starts vs. Atlanta, Eflin is 2-0 with a 1.57 ERA and 0.74 WHIP in 23 innings. And in his only other previous start here at SunTrust Park, the former first-round pick (Padres) tossed seven sharp innings, and allowed just one earned run and eight baserunners. Despite their loss on Wednesday night, the Phillies are still a solid 7-3 in the last 10 meetings with the Braves. Take Philly. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-04-19 | Yankees v. Rays +104 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -100 | 15 h 3 m | Show |
At 5:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees. When LHP J.A. Happ came to the Bronx in the second half of 2018, it looked like a perfect marriage. Happ had been pretty good in Toronto (10-6 with a 4.18 ERA in 20 starts), but when he joined the Yankees, he went into another zone. In 11 starts with the Yanks after being traded last July 26, Happ went 7-0 with a 2.69 ERA and 1.05 WHIP and seemed poised to pick it up in 2019 right where he left off. But so far, it's been a lost season for the 36-year-old who, despite a 7-4 record, has logged an ugly 5.23 ERA in 16 starts covering just over 84 innings. In the beginning of the season, most of Happ's issues were happening at home. But lately, Happ has been knocked around pretty good on the road as well. His last road start was in Chicago and he allowed four runs on five hits in five innings to the White Sox. Start #17 comes on the road and Tropicana Field has not been kind to Happ as he is 1-2 with a 5.36 ERA in 10 games here (nine starts) covering 43 2/3 innings. Take the Rays. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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07-03-19 | Yankees -142 v. Mets | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 8 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the New York Mets. After two games in London that saw a total of 50 runs scored -- almost two-thirds of which (29) were plated by the Yanks in their two victories -- the Bronx Bombers needed a day off on Monday. And it's not surprising that when they returned to work on Tuesday, the Yankees were a little flat, and lost the first game of this series to their cross-town rivals by a 4-2 margin. Not only did the Mets beat the Yanks, but they ended their consecutive home run streak at 31 games with last night's victory. But the Yankees have something else to look forward to tonight. Their 26-year-old RHP, Domingo German, was arguably their best pitcher for much of the first half. But a hip flexor injury sidelined German in early June and he's been idle ever since. Tonight will mark the return of German to the Yanks' rotation and you can never have enough great arms in there. The Mets will counter with LHP Jason Vargas and they are 1-4 in Vargas' last five home starts vs. winning teams. Meanwhile, the Yankees are 17-9 in German's 26 career starts. Take the Yankees. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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07-03-19 | Cubs -129 v. Pirates | Top | 5-6 | Loss | -129 | 8 h 18 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. We're not sure how the Cubs felt about Pittsburgh before this series started, but there's a good chance they can't wait to get out of town after the way the first two games went. The Bucs have not only beaten the Cubbies on Monday and Tuesday night, but they've out-scored them by an embarrassing total of 23-6. The Pirates acquired RH starter Chris Archer from the Rays last season in the deal which sent Austin Meadows and Tyler Glasnow south to St. Pete. At the time, it probably looked like a pretty good deal for the Bucs. But in his first full season with the Pirates, Archer is just 3-6 in 14 starts. And the 5.50 ERA he has put up in 73 2/3 innings is the highest such number he's logged since he came into the Majors in 2012. Start number 15 comes tonight and, given how the first two games of this series went, you have to wonder whether tonight there will be an offensive letdown for the home team. The Cubs will go with veteran RHP Yu Darvish and they are 4-1 in his last five starts following a team loss in their previous game. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-02-19 | Twins -117 v. A's | Top | 6-8 | Loss | -117 | 21 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Oakland Athletics. In his second year with the Twins, RHP Jake Odorizzi has been awarded his first All Star selection and it's well-deserved. The 29-year-old is 10-3 with a 2.73 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 16 starts covering just under 86 innings. The former Tampa Bay Ray is having his best season ever since he came into the Majors in 2012 as a 22-year-old. Odorizzi will try for win number 11 tonight in Oakland and it's a venue that has been pretty kind to him in the past. In three previous starts at the Coliseum, Odorizzi is 1-0 with a sparkling 1.29 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in 21 innings. RHP Daniel Mengden will go for the A's. And although the 26-year-old is 2-1 with a 4.03 ERA in six games (four starts) this season, Mengden has also issued 16 walks in his 29 innings. And that walk rate (5.0) is going to catch up to him at some point. The Twins are 12-1 in Odorizzi's last 13 starts while the A's are 5-12 in their last 17 home games vs. teams with a road winning % of greater than .600. Take the Twins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-02-19 | Cubs -128 v. Pirates | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -128 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Pirates blasted the Cubs by an 18-5 score last night, which is easily the worst defeat of the season so far for the north-siders. The Cubs will try again tonight in Game 2 of this series. And unlike Monday, when they sent an inexperienced starter to the mound, Chicago will go with the veteran RHP Kyle Hendricks tonight. Hendricks is following up his solid 2018 season with an almost identical campaign so far this season, as the 29-year-old is 7-5 with a 3.36 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 starts covering just over 88 innings. Although he is just 4-5 in 13 career starts vs. the Bucs, Hendricks likes pitching here at PNC Park. In six starts in the Steel City, Hendricks is 2-1 with a 3.09 ERA and 1.15 WHIP in 32 innings. The Cubs are also 7-2 in Hendricks' last nine starts overall and 9-3 in his last 12 vs. teams with a losing record. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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07-01-19 | Cubs -110 v. Pirates | Top | 5-18 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. If you haven't heard of Adbert Alzolay, don't feel bad. The 24-year-old Venezuelan was signed by the Cubs as an amateur free agent in 2012 as an 18-year-old but he didn't appear in the Majors until this season. After a 3.06 ERA with 46 strikeouts and six walks in six starts covering 32 innings with their AAA affiliate in Iowa, the Cubs figured it was time to give Alzolay a shot at the Big Leagues. So far, so good, as the rookie RHP has a 2.08 ERA in two games (one start) for the Cubs and he will get another shot tonight in Pittsburgh against the Pirates. Alzolay's only start was in his last appearance against the Braves on June 25 in which he allowed just one run in 4 2/3 innings at home. He's on the road for the first time but he will also be facing a Pirates team that plated just five runs in its three-game series with the Brewers over the weekend. The Pirates will go with RHP Trevor Williams and they are 1-5 in his last six starts vs. the Cubs. Meanwhile, the Cubs are 28-13 (+13 games on the money line) as a favorite of -150 or less. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-30-19 | Dodgers -168 v. Rockies | Top | 10-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 32 m | Show |
At 3:10 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. The Dodgers might not have the best rotation in the Majors, but they might just have the best "rotation depth" in the game. When you have a guy like RHP Kenta Maeda as your #4 starter, that says something. Maeda is on pace to have about 14 wins with a sub-4.00 ERA and you can't ask for anything more from your lower starting pitching positions. This will be Maeda's 16th start of the season. And while most starting pitchers dread taking the mound at Colorado's Coors Field, Maeda in all likelihood doesn't mind it so much. In nine career games at Coors (six starts), Maeda is 5-1 with a very strong 3.00 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 36 innings. Those five victories represent that most that Maeda has had at any venue other than Dodger Stadium. Despite the Rockies' victory on Saturday, the Dodgers are still 20-8 in the last 28 meetings. The Dodgers are also 4-0 in Maeda's last four starts vs. teams with a winning record. Take Los Angeles. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-30-19 | Nationals -303 v. Tigers | Top | 2-1 | Win | 100 | 11 h 33 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Detroit Tigers. It's not often that we lay this big of a price in a baseball game, but we'll do so this afternoon with Max Scherzer on the mound against a Tigers team which has lost 12 of its last 14 games. Moreover, Washington's won each of Scherzer's last five starts (0.97 ERA), while the Tigers have lost each of Jordan Zimmermann's last six starts (8.76 ERA). Finally, Detroit is 6-21 as a home underdog (minus 11 games on the money line), as well as an awful 49-145 (minus 34 games on the money line) as an underdog of +200 (or more), while the Nationals are an awesome 45-13 as a road favorite of -175 or more (plus 17 games on the money line). Take the Nationals. |
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06-30-19 | Indians -219 v. Orioles | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 10 h 27 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Baltimore Orioles. So, now we know the only thing the Orioles needed in order to be successful this season. They just needed to have the Indians visit Camden Yards for all of their home games. In an historic couple of days, the O's put a pair of 13-0 drubbings on the Indians to lead up to this series finale. Will Baltimore make it three-in-a-row? That's another matter altogether. The O's haven't had a three-game winning streak since the first week of the season. And this afternoon they will have to try to do it against one of the best young starters in the American League. After winning 11 games in his rookie campaign in 2018, 24-year-old RH Shane Bieber is even better this season, going 6-3 with a 3.83 ERA and 1.10 WHIP. And he threw his first career complete game shutout as well. Bieber's numbers are certainly worthy of an All-Star nod, which would be even sweeter with the game being played in Cleveland next month. Despite stumbling the last two days, the Tribe is still 13-6 in the last 19 meetings and they are 10-3 in Bieber's last 13 road starts. Take Cleveland. |
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06-30-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox +110 | Top | 12-8 | Loss | -100 | 8 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:10 am, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. If we learned one thing from the first-ever Major League game played in Europe, it's that runs across the plate are like raindrops in London. At the end of the first inning on Saturday, both starters had been knocked out and the game was already over the total with a 6-6 tally on the scoreboard. It continued from there and when the smoke had cleared, the Yankees had walked away with a crazy 17-13 victory. If you have Sox LHP Eduardo Rodriguez on your fantasy team, you might want to keep him on your bench today after Tanaka and Porcello each got tagged for six runs in less than an inning yesterday. But we'll take the experienced southpaw today against little-known lefty Stephen Tarpley who gets his first career start in game two of the London series. There's little to suggest that Tarpley (0-0 with a 6.48 ERA in 8 1/3 innings) will thrive here overseas against a very dangerous Boston lineup. And the Red Sox are 45-19 (+24 games on the money line) with Rodriguez on the hill over the last 3 seasons. And they're also 5-1 in E-Rod's last six starts, having won the last three by a combined score of 28-11. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-29-19 | Diamondbacks -140 v. Giants | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 13 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants. You'd be hard-pressed to find a more consistent Major League starter since 2011 than Zack Greinke. He's won every single year, and his ERA has been below 4.00 in all but one season. The 35-year-old RHP is having another one of those seasons as Greinke has gone 8-3 with a 3.08 ERA and 0.95 WHIP in 17 starts coming into tonight. More important for this evening is the fact that Greinke is pitching for the eighth time at Oracle (AT&T) Park. In seven previous starts here, Greinke has a remarkable 5-0 record with a 1.37 ERA and 0.91 WHIP in 46 innings. The Giants will go with veteran LHP Drew Pomeranz. Pomeranz has struggled this season, going 2-8 with a 6.79 ERA in 14 starts heading into tonight. The Giants are also 3-7 in Pomeranz's last 10 starts on grass. Take the D-Backs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-29-19 | Dodgers -148 v. Rockies | Top | 3-5 | Loss | -148 | 18 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Colorado Rockies. The way things are going, 2019 may very well be the third straight season in which Dodgers' LH ace Clayton Kershaw fails to get 30 starts. Yet despite not pulling a full workload -- in terms of starts -- the 31-year-old continues to put up some of the best pitching numbers in the Majors. So far, in 13 starts this season, Kershaw is 7-1 with a 3.07 ERA and 1.07 WHIP in 85 innings. Like many pitchers in the National League, Kershaw's ERA is elevated when he pitches at Coors Field (4.57). But he has had a lot of success here too, going 10-4 in 24 Denver starts covering 126 innings. And those 10 victories represent the second-most that Kershaw has had in any road venue (San Francisco - 13 wins). Perhaps more important than those 10 wins at Coors is the fact that the Dodgers have won six of Kershaw's last seven starts against the Rockies going back to April of 2017 and 27 of his last 33 vs. them. The Dodgers are also 41-10 in Kershaw's last 51 starts vs. NL West teams. Take L.A. |
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06-29-19 | Cubs +107 v. Reds | Top | 6-0 | Win | 107 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 4:10 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over Cincinnati. Luis Castillo has been awful this season in his six daytime starts, as his ERA is 4.59, and the Reds have lost five of those six games. The Reds have also struggled in day games, generally, over the last three seasons, as they're 63-94 (minus 21 games on the money line). And they're also a wallet-busting 40-65 (minus 17 games on the money line) vs. southpaws. None of this bodes well for Cincy this afternoon. Take the Cubbies as an underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-29-19 | Yankees v. Red Sox +132 | Top | 17-13 | Loss | -100 | 11 h 16 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the New York Yankees. For the first time ever, Major League Baseball will take its product to Europe as the Red Sox and Yankees play a two-game series at London Stadium in England this weekend. Game 1 will feature two of the most experienced starters for their respective teams as right-handers Masahiro Tanaka and Rick Porcello go to the mound today. This season, Tanaka has been solid in his starts at Yankee Stadium, but is under water away from home. In his six road starts, the Japanese veteran is just 1-3 with a 3.89 ERA (vs. 4-2 and 2.84 in 10 starts in the Bronx. Even worse for New York is that it will play without one of its best players. Just eight days after he was activated from the Injured List, New York's OF/DH Giancarlo Stanton has gone back on the shelf with a knee injury so he won't be available this weekend. The Red Sox are 126-66 (+30 games on the money line) vs. righties, and 102-63 (+24 games on the money line) off a loss in their previous game. Take Boston. |
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06-28-19 | A's +138 v. Angels | Top | 7-2 | Win | 138 | 10 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland A's over the Anaheim Angels. The A's have won seven of their last 10, and will turn to the red-hot Michael Fiers tonight, in Anaheim. Fiers has a 2.18 ERA over his last four starts (all Oakland wins), and his teams are a superb 45-28 (+22 games on the money line) in his last 73 starts! Even better: Fiers has been a model of consistency over his last 10 starts, as he has not allowed more than 3 runs in any of his last 10 starts. And he's faced Anaheim twice this season, and once last year (as a member with Detroit), with his teams notching wins in all three of those games. Take the A's. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-28-19 | Dodgers v. Rockies +196 | Top | 9-13 | Win | 196 | 16 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the Los Angeles Dodgers. Without a doubt, Hyun-Jin Ryu has been the best pitcher in baseball this season. He's 9-1 in his 15 starts, with a 1.27 ERA. And the Dodgers have won 11 of his 15 starts. But, given his history against the Rockies, it's hard for me to pass up taking the big home underdog tonight. Indeed, Ryu is 4-6 with a 4.61 ERA in his career vs. Colorado, including a 7.56 ERA in his four starts at Coors Field. And even though the Dodgers are 11-4 with Ryu on the hill, they're actually a losing 3-4 this season with Ryu on the hill ON THE ROAD. Finally, Colorado is 15-8 at Coors Field with Antonio Senzatela on the mound. Take the home underdog Rockies. |
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06-28-19 | Mariners v. Astros -230 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 8 h 57 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. With Dallas Keuchel not re-signing with the club after last season, the Houston Astros were desperately looking for a lefthander to fill his rotation spot -- being that all of their other projected starters (Verlander, Cole, McHugh, Peacock and potentially McCullers) are righties. Preferably they wanted someone with experience who wouldn't cost them a fortune. They found their man in 32-year-old Wade Wiley and in February signed him to a modest $4.5 Million contract for 2019. Miley has done exactly what the 'Stros had hoped for, as he's been a solid pitcher who has given them quality innings from the left side of the mound. Miley is 6-4 with a 3.59 ERA in 16 starts and #17 will come against the team for which he pitched in the first half of 2016. He didn't find Safeco Park to his liking so it's a good thing that tonight's start is in Houston, where Miley has a sparkling 4-1 record and 1.91 ERA in seven starts this season. The Mariners are also 2-8 in their last 10 road games vs. a lefty starter. Take Houston. |
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06-28-19 | Twins -180 v. White Sox | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -180 | 4 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Chicago White Sox. Twins ace Jose Berrios took a major step towards being considered one of the elite pitchers in the American League last season. The now-25-year-old won double-digit games for the second year in a row, while posting two complete games (he led the league) -- one of which was a shutout. And the Puerto Rican star made the All Star squad for the first time. Berrios isn't stopping with his 2018 performance however as this season has been even better so far. In 16 starts, Berrios is 8-3 with a 2.84 ERA and 1.07 WHIP, so he's on track to put up the best numbers of his career. A start against Chicago could easily keep things rolling along. In 10 starts against the White Sox, Berrios is 8-1 with a 2.05 ERA and 0.96 WHIP in 66 innings. It certainly doesn't hurt his chances that he has the best line-up backing him up that he's had since he came into the league with the Twins in 2016. The Twins are also 17-7 in their last 24 road games. Take Minnesota. |
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06-28-19 | Braves +128 v. Mets | Top | 6-2 | Win | 128 | 14 h 21 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. At this point, the last two years have to feel a bit like the movie "Groundhog Day" to Mets RHP Jacob deGrom. The reigning Cy Young winner's frustration over having his leads blown was well documented in 2018. So, deGrom probably figured that with an improved bullpen in 2019, he could entrust his relievers to not blow as many leads this season. But it's been more of the same so far for the 31-year-old ace. He left his last start once again with a lead (3-2) only to have Seth Lugo blow it as the Cubs went on to a 5-3 win. One starter who hasn't had this problem this season is the Braves' RHP Mike Soroka. The 21-year-old is making a strong early case for NL Rookie of the Year with an 8-1 record and 2.07 ERA over his first 13 starts and an All Star selection seems all but inevitable at this point. He's pitched better on the road (4-0, with a 1.05 ERA) than at home this season, but it's somewhat relative as he is still a solid 4-1 with a 3.28 ERA in his six starts in Atlanta. This game, of course, is in New York. And he won his only career start here at Citi Field, 3-2, as he gave up just one run over six innings. He also just beat the Mets two starts ago (12-3, in Atlanta), and has a career 1.96 ERA in three starts vs. the Mets (all Atlanta wins). Take Atlanta. |
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06-27-19 | Braves v. Cubs -105 | Top | 7-9 | Win | 100 | 3 h 35 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Atlanta Braves. Cubs RHP Tyler Chatwood has been mostly a starter in his eight seasons in the Majors (since 2011). During that time, 133 of Chatwood's 154 appearances were starts. But things have changed in Chicago and now Chatwood is almost exclusively a reliever. But that was before Cubs' starter Kyle Hendricks went on the IL with a right shoulder impairment. Now, it appears that Chatwood is being given another chance at starting in the Majors this season -- a good thing despite the fact that one of his mentors (Hendricks) is out of action with no definitive timetable for a return.  Chatwood is 3-1 with a 3.69 ERA in 18 games (two starts) covering 39 innings for the Cubs this season, so hopefully he will be able to keep that going in this afternoon affair against the Braves. The Cubs are 7-1 in Chatwood's last eight starts overall, while the Braves are 1-4 in their last five road games vs. teams with a home winning % at least .600. Take the Cubs. |
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06-27-19 | Mariners v. Brewers -175 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Seattle Mariners. The Brewers have dropped the first two games of this 3-game series, so they'll look to bounce back this afternoon. Milwaukee likely will, given its strength as a home favorite. Indeed, it's 88-46, +21 games on the money line, as a home favorite. Meanwhile, Mike Leake has burned money as a road underdog in his career (32-49), including a woeful 1-6 this season.  Finally, the Brewers are a solid 19-10 (+8 games on the money line) in day games this year, while Seattle is 11-19 (minus 8 games on the money line) in the afternoon. Take Milwaukee. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-27-19 | Pirates v. Astros -199 | Top | 10-0 | Loss | -199 | 13 h 23 m | Show |
At 2:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Pittsburgh Pirates. After a breakout season in 2017, in which he went 13-2 with a 3.00 ERA with 21 of his 34 appearances being starts, it appeared that Brad Peacock might have a permanent job in the Astros' rotation. But Houston acquired Justin Verlander at the end of that season and then Gerrit Cole later that winter, so Peacock found himself back in a bullpen role last season. Now with Charlie Morton and Dallas Keuchel gone, Peacock is back in the rotation and he is making the most of it. Not as dominant as he was two seasons ago, Peacock still has a winning record (6-5) with a nice 3.62 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 16 games -- all but two of which are starts. He only has one previous appearance against the Pirates and that was in a relief role, so this will be his first stat vs. them. And it comes at home where Peacock has done his best work this season, going 3-2 with a 3.38 ERA in eight starts, vs. 3-3 and 3.93 in eight appearances (six starts) on the road. Finally, the Astros are 21-9 in their last 30 inter-league games vs. losing teams. Take Houston. |
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06-26-19 | Rays +100 v. Twins | Top | 4-6 | Loss | -100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over Minnesota. We've played on the Rays' Charlie Morton quite a few times this season, and we'll do so once again this evening. Certainly, Morton hasn't disappointed much this year, as he's 8-1 with a 2.31 ERA and a 1.02 WHIP. And on the road, those numbers get even better, as his ERA is 1.57. Morton's also been perfect in his career vs. Minnesota. He's made three starts, and each of those were won by his teams, including a 14-3 victory less than a month ago. The Rays are a super 12-8 this season on the road in competitively-priced games with odds between +125 and -125, while Minny is 6-12 at home with Jake Odorizzi on the hill when priced from +125 to -125. Take Tampa Bay. |
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06-26-19 | Mariners v. Brewers -190 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -190 | 6 h 38 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Seattle Mariners. If you haven't heard of Adrian Houser, don't feel bad. Houser is a nondescript former 2nd round draft pick of the Astros who has found his way onto the Brewers roster almost exclusively as a reliever. But with Corbin Burnes sent to the minors, Jimmy Nelson being demoted to the bullpen, and Chase Anderson and Freddy Peralta struggling mightily, it appears now there's an opportunity for Houser to get his third start of the season. The 26 year-old RH has been very effective in a bullpen role up to this point.  In 16 appearances (including two starts), Houser is 2-1 with a 2.27 ERA and 36 strikeouts in 31 2/3 innings. Those are very solid numbers and you can't blame the Crew for giving Houser his third start of the season tonight based on that. The Mariners are 2-6 in their last eight inter-league road games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. And they're just 8-19 in their last 27 inter-league contests. Take Milwaukee. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-26-19 | Braves v. Cubs -118 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -118 | 18 h 48 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Atlanta Braves. The Cubs have been super this season in the friendly confines of Wrigley Field, as they're 28-15. And when priced as a home favorite of -150 or less, those numbers improve to 17-5 (+11 games on the money line). Tonight, they'll hand the ball to RHP Yu Darvish. And his teams are 39-27 (+6 games on the money line) in his career when favored -150 or less. Meanwhile, the Braves are an awful 3-10 their last 13 games as an underdog. Take Chicago. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-26-19 | A's v. Cardinals -136 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -136 | 8 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Oakland Athletics. Cardinals veteran RHP Adam Wainwright is having almost the same type of campaign he has had for the last three seasons. Clearly, the 37-year-old is in the twilight of his career, but that doesn't mean he can't still contribute to the Cards' success the rest of the way. Wainwright is 5-6 with a 4.50 ERA in 14 starts covering 76 innings coming into tonight. The veteran starter has thrived in his career in inter-league starts, going 14-9 with a 3.77 ERA in 35 games (29 starts) vs. teams from the American League. And those numbers get much better when you look at his performance against Oakland. In two starts vs. the A's, Wainwright is 2-0 with a 0.53 ERA and 0.77 WHIP in 17 innings (only one run allowed). Finally, the A's are 2-5 in their last seven inter-league road games while the Cards are 44-19 in Wainwright's last 63 home starts. Take St. Louis. |
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06-26-19 | Rockies -135 v. Giants | Top | 6-3 | Win | 100 | 13 h 29 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Francisco Giants. Jeff Samardzija is struggling again for the Giants. They've won just two of his last eight starts. And his ERA over his last three outings is an ugly 6.61. This afternoon, the Giants have been installed as a home underdog vs. German Marquez and the Rockies. San Francisco is a wallet-busting 43-74 its last 117 when priced as an underdog of +125 to +175. And Jeff Samardzija's teams are a similarly poor 42-73 (minus 32 games on the money line) in his career when priced from +125 to +175. In contrast, the Rockies are 7-0 this season (and 20-8 in Marquez' career) when priced from -125 to -175 with him on the hill. Take the Rockies. |
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06-26-19 | Royals v. Indians -210 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 11 h 54 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Kansas City Royals. It's been a bit of a rough first half for Indians' RHP Trevor Bauer. After a breakout season in 2018 in which he went 12-6 with a 2.21 ERA in 28 games (27 starts), Bauer has struggled a bit in 2019. The 28-year-old RHP is 5-6 with a 3.69 ERA in 17 starts. His walk rate is up to 3.7 (from 2.9), while his strikeout rate is down to 9.8 (from 11.3). But if there's anything that can get Bauer back on the winning track, it just might be a start against the Royals. In 14 games vs. KC (13 starts), Bauer has a 3.01 ERA in just under 81 innings. Bauer apparently also prefers pitching in the afternoon as his career ERA in the daytime is a full run lower than it is under the lights (3.25 vs. 4.25). And this season, Bauer loves his afternoon starts even more as he has a 1.82 ERA in five daytime starts (vs. 4.52 in 12 nighttime outings). The Royals will go with RHP Jakob Junis, and they are 2-5 in Junis' last seven starts vs. teams with a winning record. Meanwhile, the Indians are 42-19 in Bauer's last 61 starts on regular rest. Take the Tribe. |
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06-25-19 | Dodgers -113 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 11 h 57 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Rich Hill just landed on the Injured List with a strained flexor tendon in his left forearm. Thus, Ross Stripling will be called on today to toe the rubber for the NL West-leading Dodgers. And he's been super this season, whether as a starter (six games) or reliever (14 appearances). Stripling's 3-0, with a 3.08 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, and 48 strikeouts in just 47 2/3 innings. And his ERA in his last three starts (all Dodger Wins) was 1.56. L.A. comes into this game off a rare loss, 8-4, to the D-Backs. But I love Dave Roberts' crew to bounce back tonight against the southpaw, Robbie Ray. Los Angeles is 17-9 this season vs. lefties (and 98-57 the past three seasons). Even better: with Ray on the mound, his teams (Detroit & Arizona) are an awful 25-36 (minus 21 games on the money line) at home in his career. Take the Dodgers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-25-19 | A's v. Cardinals -133 | Top | 7-3 | Loss | -133 | 19 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Oakland A's. It was an emotional weekend in St. Louis with Albert Pujols visiting Busch Stadium for perhaps the final time in his career. The Cards took two of three from the Angels, and now another AL West division team comes into town, as the Oakland A's visit for the first time in almost three years. RHP Jack Flaherty will get his 16th start for the home team tonight. And although Flaherty has won just four times this season, and his ERA is almost a run higher than it was in 2018, he has lowered his walk rate, and kept his strikeout rate above one per inning. So signs point to a rebound for the 23-year-old. Flaherty has a respectable 3.90 ERA in five inter-league starts, his last of which was a quality outing in Texas against the Rangers on May 19 (2 ER on 4 H in 6 IP). The A's will go with RHP Chris Bassitt tonight. And that bodes well for St. Louis, as it's 8-2 in its last 10 inter-league games vs. a RHP starter. And it's also 23-7 as a favorite of -150 or less this year. Take St. Louis. |
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06-25-19 | Rays v. Twins +107 | Top | 4-9 | Win | 107 | 19 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Tampa Bay Rays. All the fans in Tampa want to know.....What's wrong with Blake Snell? Last year's Cy Young winner (21 wins and a 1.89 ERA) is just 4-6 with a 4.40 ERA. And he has allowed 37 ER already, just one shy of his number for all of 2018. His last start lasted just 1/3 of an inning, which led many to believe that there was a physical problem. But the Rays and Snell deny that anything's wrong with his health, and have asserted that his problems are simply a matter of bad luck more than anything. Regardless, going on the road to face the team with the best record in the AL will be a tough way to break out of a slump. And that's especially true when you consider that one of his worst starts last season was his only previous one here at Target Field (3 ER on 5 H in 3 IP on July 12). As surprisingly bad as Snell's season has been, that's how surprisingly good Twins' RHP Kyle Gibson's has been. Gibson is 7-4 with a 4.18 ERA in 14 starts, and his K rate of 9.0 and BB rate of 2.5 are both career-best numbers. Minnesota is also 12-5 in Gibson's last 17 starts. Take the Twins. |
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06-24-19 | Mets v. Phillies -122 | Top | 7-13 | Win | 100 | 17 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the New York Mets. A new poster boy for hard-luck pitchers this season is the Phillies RH Zach Eflin. Eflin has some very impressive numbers: a 2.83 ERA in 14 starts to go with a 1.16 WHIP and a league-leading two complete games -- one of those a shutout. But despite all of this, Eflin is just 6-7 so far. That will change eventually and all Eflin needs to do is keep his cool and keep pitching like he has been and the wins will come. The good news for tonight's game against the Mets is that four of Eflin's six wins have come here at home where he is 4-2 with a sparkling 2.13 ERA in six starts in 2019. One of those two complete games also came here -- a 5-1 victory over the Marlins back on April 28. This will be Eflin's first home start this season against New York, but last season he went 2-0 against the Mets with 4-0 and 9-6 victories on September 19 and August 16. The Mets are an awful 32-56 (minus 18 games on the money line) as an underdog of +150 or less, and 13-26 as an underdog with Steven Matz on the mound. Take the Phillies. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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06-23-19 | Mets v. Cubs +105 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 105 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the New York Mets. It's no surprise that Jacob deGrom has regressed this season after winning his first Cy Young in 2018. Of course, it would have been hard to imagine that the 31-year-old RHP would have improved on last year's 1.70 ERA. So, his 3.26 number through his first 15 starts is to be expected. And it's also much more in line with his career average. But, just like last season, deGrom has not translated his solid ERA into wins. In 2019, he is 4-6 in his 15 outings, and the Mets are an awful 3-8 (minus 11 games on the money line) when he's been favored.  One place that's given him fits in his career is Wrigley Field, where today's game is being held. In three starts here, deGrom is 0-1 with 4.50 ERA and 1.44 WHIP in 18 innings. But his mound opponent, Cole Hamels, absolutely loves it here on the North Side. In seven 2019 starts at Wrigley, Hamels is 2-0 with a sparkling 2.38 ERA -- a number that is almost a full run lower than his ERA on the road. Even better: in his last six starts vs. the Mets, Hamels has allowed a total of just four ER in 37 IP, and has never allowed more than one earned run in a game. Take Chicago. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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06-23-19 | Astros -122 v. Yankees | Top | 9-4 | Win | 100 | 12 h 11 m | Show |
At 2:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. Those predicting the inevitable regression for future Hall-of-Fame ace Justin Verlander will likely have to wait at least until next season. With almost half of the 2019 campaign complete, the 36-year-old RHP is showing no signs of slowing down. His days of throwing 240 innings in a season may be over, but Verlander is still a very dangerous strikeout artist. And he should be right in the mix for the AL Cy Young yet again this season. Verlander has been tough both at home and on the road this season, with six of his nine victories coming away from Minute Maid Park. One starter who hasn't enjoyed home cooking this season is the Yankees' LHP JA Happ. Happ is a solid 3-0 with a 4.05 ERA in seven road starts in 2019, but he is just 4-5 with an ugly 5.13 number here at Yankee Stadium. And most of those have been against teams without nearly the talent in the lineup as the Astros. Also, in his last six starts vs. the Yanks (including one as a Detroit Tiger), Verlander has allowed just six ER in 46 1/3 innings. (His teams went 5-1 in those.) Meanwhile, the Astros are 34-11 their last 45 vs. lefties, while the Yankees are a poor 24-38 (minus nine games on the money line) as an underdog of +150 or less. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-19 | Astros +152 v. Yankees | Top | 5-7 | Loss | -100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:15 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. The Astros are currently riding a season-high six-game losing streak. But we'll back the Astros tonight behind their LHP Wade Miley. Miley comes into this game with a solid 3.30 ERA and 1.19 WHIP. And the Yankees are just 9-9 this season vs. southpaws (minus 4 games on the money line), compared to 39-18 vs. righties (+12 games on the money line). Even better: the Astros have won six of Masahiro Tanaka's nine starts vs. them, including a 4-3 victory earlier this season. And Tanaka's career ERA of 7.36 in the regular season vs. Houston is his worst such number against any of the 25 clubs he has faced. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-19 | Padres -119 v. Pirates | Top | 3-6 | Loss | -119 | 12 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the San Diego Padres over Pittsburgh. After starting out with six wins in Chris Paddack's first seven starts, the Padres have won just one of the rookie's last five outings. But I look for San Diego to get back into the win column behind its rookie this afternoon. And it won't hurt to face Chris Archer, who is struggling this season for Pittsburgh. Archer's ERA is just south of 6 runs per game (5.85), and the Pirates have won just four of his 12 starts. Take the Padres. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-22-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -180 | Top | 5-3 | Loss | -180 | 5 h 1 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. There's no way to sugar coat it -- Vince Velasquez is in a major funk right now. In his fourth season in Philadelphia, the 27-year-old RHP is quickly wearing out his welcome with the Phillies. In 17 games, including seven starts, Velasquez is 2-4 with a 4.71 ERA and 1.52 WHIP. And he is 0-3 with a 10.80 ERA and 2.20 WHIP in his last three starts covering just 10 innings. But if there's anything that can get a pitcher out of his funk it's a start against the Marlins. And that applies even more to Velasquez. In 11 career starts vs. Miami, the veteran is 4-2 with a 3.00 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 57 innings. Those four victories represent the most that Velasquez has against any team he has faced. The Marlins will go with RHP Elieser Hernandez. After a rookie season in which he went 2-7 with a 5.21 ERA, Hernandez has improved on the ERA this season -- 3.95 -- but is 0-2 in his three games (two starts) so far. Miami is also 0-7 in his last seven starts going back to last May 21. Take the Phillies. |
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06-22-19 | Mets v. Cubs -133 | Top | 10-2 | Loss | -133 | 11 h 37 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the New York Mets. It's been a strange season so far for Cubs LHP Jose Quintana. On the one hand, the 30-year-old has allowed more than three earned runs in just two of his 14 starts. But on the other hand, the Cubs have won just once in Quintana's last eight starts. The veteran from Colombia will try to break that unlucky streak this afternoon against the Mets. The good news is that in three career starts vs. the Mets, Quintana is 2-1 with a sparkling 1.35 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 20 innings. He will try to register his first victory in over a month today at home. And that is another key for Quintana as he is 3-3 with a very nice 2.98 ERA in seven starts here at Wrigley vs. 1-3 and 4.93 in eight appearances (seven starts) on the road this season. Despite the Mets' victory on Friday, they are just 3-10 in the last 13 meetings with the Cubs. Take Chicago. |
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06-21-19 | Angels -106 v. Cardinals | Top | 1-5 | Loss | -106 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Angels over St. Louis. Michael Wacha will be making his 12th start of the season, and it's been an exceptionally inconsistent season for the veteran. In five of his starts, he's pitched well. But in those other six, he's been awful. And he's been especially poor here, at home, where his ERA is 8.23. And he's never performed well in Interleague play in front of his home faithful, as the Cards are 2-8 (minus 12 games on the money line) in his 10 starts, including an 8-2 loss to the Royals this season. Griffin Canning has been largely effective this season, as he has a 3.93 ERA with a 0.99 WHIP. And his strikeouts:walks ratio is great at 5.4 (54 strikeouts; 10 walks). Take the Angels. |
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06-21-19 | Twins -158 v. Royals | Top | 8-7 | Win | 100 | 18 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over Kansas City. The Twins have rolled out to 48-26 record -- the best in the American League -- in part because they've avoided long losing streaks. Indeed, their longest losing streak this season is just two games, which they've done six times (including their current losing streak coming into tonight's game). Thus, the Twins are a perfect 5-0 this season off back to back losses (and 19-7 (+12 games on the money line) off any loss this season). And they're 14-4 on the road vs. losing teams. Take Minnesota. |
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06-21-19 | Reds v. Brewers -129 | Top | 11-7 | Loss | -129 | 18 h 46 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the Cincinnati Reds. Brewers' RHP Chase Anderson is quietly putting up some very good numbers as a replacement starter this season. With Gio Gonzalez hitting the IL with a "dead arm", Anderson is getting an opportunity to start for the Brewers and he is making the most of it. In 13 games (eight starts), Anderson is 3-1 with a 4.05 ERA and 49 strikeouts in just under 47 innings and the Crew is 5-3 in his eight starts. The Brewers are 3-1 in Anderson's last four starts vs. the Reds going back to last May. Reds RHP Sonny Gray has a 3.77 ERA in his 14 starts, but he is just 3-5 on the season and his team is 7-7 in his starts so far. The Reds won on Thursday night, 7-1, but they are still just 2-5 in the last seven meetings with the Brewers overall and 7-14 in the last 21 at Miller Park. The Brewers are 8-3 in Anderson's last 11 home starts vs. teams with a losing record. Take Milwaukee. |
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06-21-19 | Marlins v. Phillies -219 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -219 | 17 h 41 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. Aaron Nola came very close to winning the NL Cy Young award last season with a 17-6 record and 2.37 ERA in 33 starts with this Phillies team. He finished third in the voting thanks to the incredible campaigns that Jacob deGrom and Max Scherzer had and now Nola may have a bit of a chip on his shoulder. So far, in 15 starts in 2019, Nola is picking it up where he left off in 2018 with a 6-1 record even though his 4.89 ERA is much higher than last season's number. But one of the things about Nola this season is how much he prefers pitching at his home ballpark. In nine starts at Citizens Bank, Nola is 3-0 with a 3.51 ERA, while in six starts away from Philadelphia, he is 3-1 with a 7.28 number in just under 30 innings. Tonight's start is at home and it's also against a Marlins team that is just 26-46 on the season. The Phillies are 17-5 in Nola's last 22 starts vs. teams with a losing record and they are 25-9 in Nola's last 34 home starts. Take Philadelphia. |
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06-21-19 | Astros +152 v. Yankees | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -100 | 17 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over New York. Tonight, the Astros will hand the ball to Brad Peacock, while the Yankees will start LHP James Paxton. Houston has been terrific on the road vs. lefties, as it's 34-10 (+21 games on the money line). And it's 25-11 in Peacock's last 36 starts. Meanwhile, Paxton is still working into form following his return from the Injured List. In his four starts since his return, he's given up 11 earned runs in 17 1-3 innings (5.71 ERA). Take the Astros as a big underdog. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-19 | Rays -109 v. A's | Top | 4-5 | Loss | -109 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Oakland Athletics. Last season, Charlie Morton went 15-3 with a 3.13 ERA in 30 starts with the Astros and garnered his first-ever All-Star team selection. Now in Tampa, Morton is picking things up where he left off last October, going 8-1 with a 2.37 ERA in 15 starts. Barring something strange happening, Morton should find himself right back on the AL Roster when it's time for the mid-Summer classic in a few weeks. He'll get start number 16 tonight in Oakland. The A's are fresh off of a three-game sweep here, but it's safe to say that they will find the Astros to be a tougher assignment than the 21-53 Orioles. With a 9-2 record and 2.85 ERA in his 14 starts, there's no doubt that Frankie Montas has been a huge surprise for the A's this season. But his starts since the beginning of May have come against the Pirates, Indians (twice), Tigers, Angels (twice), Rangers and Mariners. The Rays represent a big step up tonight. Finally, Tampa is 17-6 in its last 23 vs. AL West teams, and 7-1 in Morton's last eight road starts. Take the Rays. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-19 | Phillies +102 v. Nationals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 6 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. The Phillies are mired in a 3-game losing streak after dropping the first two games of this 3-game series. But Philadelphia has generally been solid when playing with double-revenge the past two seasons, as it's 31-19 (+13 games on the money line). And it has a nice advantage on the mound tonight. Nick Pivetta was expected to have a breakout season, but he got off to a rough start. He was sent down to AAA Lehigh Valley back in April after his first four outings where he had an 8.35 ERA and allowed opposing batters to hit .383. However, since his call-up in late May, Pivetta has been the pitcher most were expecting this season. In four starts, he is 2-0 with a 2.70 ERA. In contrast, his mound opponent, Erick Fedde, has been in poor form, with a 5.62 ERA over his last three outings. And Fedde's found little success at home in his career, as the Nationals are 1-9 in his 10 home starts. The Nationals are also a money-burning 4-8 (minus nine games on the money line) off back-to-back wins this season, while the Phillies are 8-5 off back-to-back losses. Take Philly. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-20-19 | Rockies v. Diamondbacks -163 | Top | 6-4 | Loss | -163 | 14 h 40 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the Colorado Rockies. When it comes to D-Backs LHP Robbie Ray, there's no doubt the raw talent is there. After all, the 26-year-old has one of the highest strikeout rates in the Majors. And at any given time, he can make the best hitters look foolish. But Ray is still a work in progress, with a higher-than-average walk rate that sometimes gets him into trouble. This month, however, Ray has made some big strides in cutting down on the free passes. In his three June starts, Ray has struck out 24 hitters while walking just three (one batter in each start). He looks to keep it going this afternoon in his 16th start -- his third of the season against the Rockies. With the recent injury to starter Tyler Anderson, the door is now open for Colorado RHP Jeff Hoffman, who will get his seventh start of the season today. The only problem is that Hoffman is in no way a full-time starter, having posted a 1-3 record and 7.04 ERA in just under 31 innings. Finally, the Rockies are a wallet-busting 345-588 (-92 games on the money line) as an underdog priced from +125 to +175, including 0-5 with Hoffman on the mound. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-19 | Marlins v. Cardinals -165 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 16 h 27 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over Miami. Daniel Ponce De Leon will get the start tonight for St. Louis. And all he's done this season in his two starts is give up a single run in both outings (2.00 ERA; 1.22 WHIP). He'll match up against Miami RHP Trevor Richards, who was bombed last Friday by the Pirates. Pittsburgh put 11 men on base in Richards' five innings en route to an 11-0 shutout victory. Richards also hasn't had any success in his career vs. the Cardinals, as he's 0-2 with a 5.06 ERA. Miami's an awful 21-56 (minus 20 games on the money line) as a road underdog, priced from +150 to +170. Take the Cards. |
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06-19-19 | White Sox v. Cubs -143 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Chicago White Sox. This is a great interleague match-up between cross-town rivals tonight. The White Sox will turn to their ace -- and one of baseball's hottest pitchers -- Lucas Giolito (2.22 ERA; 0.95 WHIP), while the Cubbies will hand the ball to their All-Star (and last year's NL Wins leader), Jon Lester. We'll take the Cubs in this home game tonight, as Lester has overwhelmingly led his teams to wins when they've been installed as a favorite (5-0 this year; 42-17 (+16 games on the money line) his last 59) or when he's faced losing teams (112-43 (+46 games on the money line). Lester's teams are also 6-1 in his last seven meetings vs. the White Sox, including an 8-3 win last September over Giolito (who gave up 5 runs in 6 2-3 innings). Take the Cubs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-19-19 | Mets v. Braves -150 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 32 m | Show |
At 7:20 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Braves over the New York Mets. After posting a 4.27 team ERA in the first month of the season, the Braves went in search of some pitching help. They found it a few weeks ago when they signed free agent starter Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is scheduled to make his Atlanta debut this weekend but now that the Braves staff is doing much better (a 3.76 ERA in June) the question is how badly do they really need him? LHP Max Fried continues to impress with a 7-3 record and 4.11 ERA over 16 appearances (14 starts) and tonight he goes at home against the Mets for his first start against them this season. Fried has had a bit of a bizarre month of June so far, posting a 7.98 ERA in three starts, however the Braves are 3-0 in those. And in his last seven starts, the Braves are 6-1. LHP Steven Matz goes for the Mets. He has also had some struggles of late, but unlike Fried, the Mets are just 3-4 in his last seven starts, going back to the beginning of May. Finally, Atlanta is 9-2 in its last 11 home games while the Mets are 7-21 in their last 28 on the road. Take the Braves. |
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06-19-19 | Brewers -105 v. Padres | Top | 7-8 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 51 m | Show |
At 3:40 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. It's early, but NL comeback player honors just might go to Brewers RHP Zach Davies. After winning 17 games in 2017 with a 3.90 ERA in a league-leading 33 starts, Davies took a major step backwards last season. Davies managed just two wins (seven losses) in a 2018 campaign in which he logged just 13 starts due to a bad rotator cuff. But 2019 has brought a new opportunity for Davies and he's making the most of it. The now healthy starter is having his best season ever, going 7-1 with a sparkling 2.60 ERA in 14 starts covering just under 80 innings. This will be his fifth career start against the Padres and match-ups don't get much better than this one. In four previous starts. vs. San Diego, Davies is 3-0 with a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in 25 innings (the Crew is 4-0 in those starts). Milwaukee is also 16-7 (+10 games on the money line) in Davies' last 23 daytime starts. Take the Brew Crew. |
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06-19-19 | Rays -121 v. Yankees | Top | 1-12 | Loss | -121 | 9 h 15 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the New York Yankees. This is an interesting pitching match-up because it features one of the best Southpaws of the past 20 years vs. potentially one of the best to come in the next decade. The Yankees' CC Sabathia is a sure future Hall of Fame player, as the 38 year-old has logged 249 victories and over 3500 strikeouts in an incredible career that includes a Cy Young award, an ALCS MVP, and a World Series ring in 2009. But 2019 has been a struggle for Sabathia. The veteran has been stuck on those 249 victories since May 22 and in the month of June, he has gone 0-3 with a 6.89 ERA and 1.79 WHIP in three starts covering 15 2/3 innings. Last season's Cy Young winner, LHP Blake Snell will go for the Rays and the 26 year-old just faced the Yanks in the Bronx a month ago and he threw one of his gems, allowing just one run on six hits in six innings with nine strikeouts and one walk in a 2-1 Rays victory. The Rays are 25-14 in Snell's last 39 starts as a favorite of -110 or higher. Take Tampa Bay. |
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06-19-19 | Phillies +165 v. Nationals | Top | 2-6 | Loss | -100 | 3 h 36 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Washington Nationals. Zach Eflin will get the start for the Phillies this afternoon, while Patrick Corbin will toe the rubber for Washington. Eflin has been solid all season, as he's made 13 starts, and has a 2.81 ERA. He's also 3-1 in his five career starts vs. Washington, with a solid 3.51 ERA (including a perfect 2-0 this season). Meanwhile, Corbin is in very poor form. Over his last three starts, he's given up 20 runs (16 earned) in 12 2-3 innings (11.37 ERA) and, not surprisingly, the Nationals dropped all three games. It's true that the Nationals erupted for 15 runs (tying their season-high) vs. Arizona in their last game, while the Phillies gave up 15 runs (to the Braves) in their last game. Unfortunately, the Nationals are a poor 1-7 at home (minus 10 games on the money line) after scoring 15+ runs, while the Phillies are an awesome 10-1 after allowing more than 8 runs. Take Philadelphia. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-19 | Brewers -154 v. Padres | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -154 | 11 h 5 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Brewers over the San Diego Padres. If you were looking at the Brewers in the pre-season and thought they had a pretty good team, but wondered who was going to step up in the rotation, you were not alone. But it seems that question has been answered. 26-year-old RHP Brandon Woodruff has emerged as the ace of the Milwaukee staff. Woodruff is 8-1 with a 3.87 ERA and 1.16 WHIP in 14 starts. And, barring a meltdown over the next three weeks, he should be named to his first All-Star squad. Woodruff will toe the rubber for the 15th time tonight, and it will be his first-ever start against the Padres. Perhaps most impressive about his season so far is the fact that the Brewers are 12-2 in his starts this year and 17-5 in his last 22 trips to the mound going back to last season. Despite the loss on Monday, the Brewers are still 9-4 in the last 13 meetings with the Padres (who have actually performed better on the road this season (17-17) than they have at home (19-20)). Take the Brewers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-18-19 | Indians -128 v. Rangers | Top | 10-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 60 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Indians over the Texas Rangers. With the unpredictable state of the Indians' rotation, it seems like there are always opportunities for up-and-coming pitchers. Corey Kluber is out until sometime in August, Carlos Carrasco has some sort of blood condition that isn't being discussed publicly (which is a very bad sign), and Danny Salazar has been injured since the 2017 season. Enter young (24-year-old) Zach Plesac, who is the nephew of former MLB pitcher Dan. The rookie hurler has started four games for the Tribe and has a very nice 2.92 ERA and 0.97 WHIP so far. The Rangers lineup is certainly formidable, but Plesac would seem to be up to the task, having already faced the lineups of the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, and Reds in his four outings. With all of the challenges the Indians' pitching staff has faced this season, you would expect their numbers to suffer, but right now they are amazingly third in the AL with a 3.87 team ERA. Finally, Cleveland is 10-4 in the last 14 meetings with Texas. Take the Tribe. |
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06-18-19 | Astros -161 v. Reds | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -161 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Cincinnati Reds. The Reds surprised the Astros on Monday night and took a well-deserved 3-2 victory from arguably the best team in the Majors. But the Reds only have one true ace -- Luis Castillo -- and he pitched last night. So, now they have to play two more against Houston without his services. That leaves guys like tonight's starter -- RHP Anthony DeSclafani -- to carry the load. And that's a huge drop-off from Castillo, who improved his numbers to 7-1 with a 2.26 ERA with Monday's victory. To make matters worse for Cincy, they have to face RHP Justin Verlander this evening. The 36-year-old just seems to get better with age, as the 'Stros ace is 9-2 with a 2.41 ERA in 15 starts heading into tonight. That puts him on track to have an even better season than he did in 2018 when he went 16-9 with a 2.52 ERA, and finished 2nd in the AL Cy Young vote. Lastly, Verlander is an inter-league monster, with a 34-7 record and a 2.76 ERA in 49 career starts vs. teams from the National League. Take the Astros. |
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06-17-19 | Red Sox v. Twins -130 | Top | 2-0 | Loss | -130 | 9 h 13 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Twins over the Boston Red Sox. As many expected, the Red Sox swept the Orioles over the weekend in Baltimore. Now they go from facing one of the worst teams in the Majors to perhaps the best in the American League. Admittedly, there are quite a few people out there who aren't yet buying the Twins as being a legitimate contender alongside the Astros and Yankees. But the numbers don't lie and right now they have the best W/L ledger in the League as well as the top run differential (+116). So this series could go a long way toward convincing the nay-sayers out there. RHP Jose Berrios will get his 15th start tonight and, with an 8-2 record and 3.01 ERA, the 25-year-old Puerto Rican is making a strong case for his second straight All-Star appearance and perhaps his first Cy Young. Berrios is 23-11 (.676) with a 3.53 ERA in 40 career games (39 starts) at Target Field. He is also 5-1 with a 2.53 ERA in seven starts here this season. Finally, the Twins are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. teams with a winning record while the Sox are 6-13 in their last 19 vs. winning foes. Take Minnesota. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-17-19 | Indians v. Rangers +120 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 120 | 19 h 58 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Texas Rangers over the Cleveland Indians. Once considered one of the top pitching prospects in the NL, RHP Lance Lynn has been somewhat irrelevant over the past two seasons after missing the entire 2016 campaign with an injury. He was extremely average in 2018 (10-10 with a 4.77 ERA) splitting his time between the Twins and Yankees. But he has found new life in Texas and is having a very strong rebound this season. The ERA is a little on the high side at 4.40, but Lynn has a nice 7-4 record in his 14 starts coming into tonight. He seems to have really taken to his new home, going 4-0 in six starts at Globe Life Park in Arlington. He'll try to make that 5-0 tonight against the inconsistent Indians and RHP Mike Clevinger. Clevinger is coming back from a long absence for a strained upper back suffered shortly after the season started (he has just two starts and 12 innings to his credit so far). For that reason, he will likely be on a strict pitch count and probably won't go far at all in the game. The Tribe is 4-9 in Clevinger's last 13 road starts, and don't merit being the road favorite in this game. Take Texas. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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06-16-19 | Cubs v. Dodgers -184 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Chicago Cubs. Yesterday, we played on the Chicago Cubs +181, as I rated the pitching relatively equal, and calculated the price to be a huge overlay. Not so with tonight's game, given the pitching match-up. Interestingly, the preseason odds for the National League Cy Young award would have had names like Max Scherzer, Aaron Nola, and Jacob deGrom as the favorites. But the starter for the Dodgers tonight -- LHP Hyun-Jin Ryu -- would've been so far down on the list that he would have been considered part of the "field." But two-and-a-half months can change a lot of things and right now Ryu -- 9-1 with a 1.36 ERA in 13 starts -- is the clear favorite for top pitching honors and a mortal lock to make his first All Star team. Tonight, Ryu gets to showcase his talent on National TV on the Sunday night ESPN prime time game against the Cubs and LHP Jose Quintana. As solid as Ryu has been, that's how inconsistently Quintana has pitched. In 14 games -- 13 starts -- the 30 year-old southpaw is 4-6 with a 3.89 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Over his last four starts, Quintana has allowed 13 earned runs on 27 hits in just 21 1/3 innings. And more importantly, the Cubs are 0-4 in those. The Cubs are also 3-9 in Quintana's last 12 road starts, and 4-14 as a road underdog this season, while LA is 23-5 as a home favorite of -150 or more this season, and 20-6 as a home favorite with Ryu on the hill the last 3 seasons. Take the Dodgers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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