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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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12-28-19 | Mavs -11 v. Warriors | Top | 141-121 | Win | 100 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over Golden State. Last night, the Mavs upset Phoenix here, at home, 105-96. But off that win, we'll fade the Warriors, as unrested home underdogs off an upset win at home the previous day, have cashed just 21.7% vs. rested opponents since 1990. Take the Mavericks to blow out Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-27-19 | Blue Jackets v. Capitals -196 | Top | 1-2 | Win | 100 | 13 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the Columbus Blue Jackets. We played against Washington in their most recent game -- a 7-3 blowout loss at Boston. But we'll switch gears tonight, and take the home-standing Capitals against a Columbus squad which has had their number in 2019. So, perhaps the third time will be the charm for the Caps vs. the Jackets tonight in the first day of the post-Christmas NHL Season. If you're looking for a reason why Columbus has beaten Washington twice in the last 17 days (once here and once in Ohio), you can stop now. There is no rational explanation for the Caps struggles this season against an over-matched and heavily-injured Blue Jackets squad when the Caps have run over virtually every other club in the league -- many with relative ease. And, actually, Columbus has now won all four meetings of Calendar Year 2019, dating back to last season. But with the Caps being well-rested after the Christmas break, they should finally break through in this series. Indeed, the Caps shine in these situations coming off a long break as they are 7-0 in their last seven games after a rest of at least three days. And they're also a perfect 5-0 this season after giving up more than 4 goals in their previous game. Take Washington. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â
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12-26-19 | Pittsburgh v. Eastern Michigan +13 | Top | 34-30 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Eastern Michigan Eagles + the points over Pittsburgh. This Quick Lane Bowl game will be played in the backyard of Eastern Michigan, as Detroit's Ford Field is just 36 miles away from Ypsilanti. So, the crowd will definitely lean in favor of the underdog. Pitt comes into this game off back to back losses -- and failed to cover the spread in those defeats by 16 and 24.5 points -- yet it's laying almost two touchdowns to the Eagles. I have all the respect in the world for the job Pat Narduzzi is doing at Pittsburgh, as his team ranks #11 in defense this season (302.5 ypg). But one of the things I will RARELY do in a bowl game is lay a lot of points -- and especially if the favored team isn't one of the best teams in the country (like an Alabama, LSU, Ohio State or Clemson-type of team). And Pitt is certainly not of that caliber. Another thing I will rarely do is lay ANY amount of points with a team which isn't playing well. It's one thing to TAKE points with a team off a loss, or back-to-back losses to end the season. But quite another to lay points with such clubs. To wit: since 2004, Bowl favorites, priced from -7.5 to -17.5 points, off back to back losses, are 0-11 ATS! And, speaking of 11-0 ATS, that's the Eagles' point spread record away from home vs. non-conference teams when Eastern Michigan wasn't getting more than 15 points. Finally, Pitt is a wallet-busting 8-22 ATS when laying 8+ points away from home, including 0-10 ATS if it failed to cover the spread in its previous game by double-digits. Take Eastern Michigan. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-25-19 | Rockets -11 v. Warriors | Top | 104-116 | Loss | -104 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 5:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over Golden State. The Warriors enter today on a rare 2-game win streak (their first win streak of the season). But the Warriors have not performed well off a win, as they're 11-28-1 ATS their last 40, including 0-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs. And, speaking of double-digit underdogs...they're a miserable 25.3% ATS at home off a home win since 1990, provided their win percentage was less than .400. Take Houston minus the points. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-24-19 | BYU v. Hawaii +2.5 | Top | 34-38 | Win | 100 | 18 h 44 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Hawaii Rainbow Warriors + the points over BYU. The Cougars mustered just 3 points in their final regular season game -- a 13-3 defeat at San Diego St. And that was their fourth straight point spread defeat to end the season. Hawaii, in contrast, covered three of its last four games (and won four of its last five). We'll fade BYU tonight, as it's a horrid 0-6 ATS this season as a favorite. Even worse: teams that scored less than 7 points in their previous game have covered just 13.3% in the Bowls over the last 40 years provided they weren't getting 5+ points, and also not playing with revenge. And BYU isn't playing with revenge here, as it defeated Hawaii in Provo last year, 49-23, as an 11-point favorite. This game, however, is in Honolulu. And home underdogs have covered 64.1% in the post-season since 1980. Finally, Hawaii's a super 22-3 ATS at home, if it owned a winning record, and didn't fail to cover the spread in the previous meeting by more than 15 points. Take the Rainbow Warriors + the points. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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12-23-19 | Blue Jackets v. Islanders -165 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -165 | 13 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Islanders over the Columbus Blue Jackets. The Islanders lost a tough one here at home on Saturday, falling to Anaheim, 6-5, in a shoot-out despite out-shooting the Ducks by a 33-28 margin. They are trying to keep up with the Caps in the Metropolitan Division, and that's no easy task these days and nobody knows that more than Isles' coach Barry Trotz who led Washington to its only Stanley Cup just two seasons ago. Trotz and the Islanders will reload tonight and welcome the Blue Jackets into town for the second time this season. New York won the first one, shutting out Columbus, 2-0, back on November 30, and that's been par for the course recently when these two get together.  The Isles are 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Jackets going back to December 1, 2018, and three of those victories -- including the last -- have been shutouts. The biggest problem for the Jackets so far this season? That's easy -- injuries. No team in the NHL is more banged up right now than Columbus, with no fewer than nine regular players either out for the season, out indefinitely, or questionable at best for this game tonight. The Jackets are 1-7 in their last eight games as a road underdog and the Isles are 10-2 in their last 12 as a home favorite. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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12-22-19 | Ravens v. Browns +11 | Top | 31-15 | Loss | -130 | 7 h 10 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns + the points over Baltimore. The Ravens have won 10 straight games (their last loss was to these Browns), and are the odds-on favorite to be the #1 seed in the AFC Conference. But the point spreads of really good teams tend to be inflated late in the season. And this game is a perfect example, as Cleveland is getting double-digits at home (which is roughly the same point spread dealt in Baltimore's road game at then-winless Cincinnati in mid-October). We'll grab the points with the Browns, as home underdogs of +9 (or more) points have gone 14-0 ATS in the season's final four weeks vs. .833 (or better) opponents. Additionally, the Ravens have covered just 3 of 19 road games off a win by 18+ points, and have also covered just 16 of 41 vs. foes playing their final home game of the season. Take Cleveland. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-21-19 | Lightning -110 v. Capitals | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Washington Capitals. We played on Washington last night at New Jersey, but will switch gears and go against Alex Ovechkin & Co. tonight. This will be the 3rd time in 23 days that these two teams have faced off. And perhaps the 3rd time will be the charm for the Lightning tonight, as they'll seek to avenge losses in those two prior games. Tampa blew a 3-1 lead in its game two nights ago, and fell in overtime to the Dallas Stars. But if there was a silver lining in that defeat, it's that Tampa played extremely well, and out-shot the Stars 48-20. Perhaps Tampa is starting to turn the corner, as it's 5-3-1 its last nine games, and was out-shot in just two of those nine games (compared to being out-shot in 13 of its first 24 games). I look for the Lightning's solid play to continue tonight, and it will have an advantage by being rested, while the Caps had to play last night. Also, Tampa is a super 53-21 its last 73 after allowing more than three goals in its previous game. Take the Lightning. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-20-19 | Pelicans v. Warriors +1 | Top | 102-106 | Win | 100 | 19 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors over New Orleans. The Pelicans come into this game off a win over Minnesota. But the Timberwolves have now lost eight games in a row. And the Pelicans had lost 13 in a row before Wednesday's win. But it wasn't just that New Orleans had lost 13 straight -- it also was 0-9-1 ATS in its 10 previous games. With that as a backdrop, it's tough to make an argument for laying points on the road with New Orleans -- even against a team like Golden State which has lost its last five games. But the Warriors have been competitive this year, and have played hard, even if they haven't won games. Indeed, the Warriors are 12-11 ATS off a loss this season. And that compares favorably to New Orleans' 35.7% ATS record this season, which is the 2nd-worst of the 30 NBA teams. Golden State is a terrific 38-18 ATS at home off a loss when matched-up against foes off a win, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when priced from -3 to +2 points. Take the Warriors. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-19-19 | Canadiens v. Flames -133 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -133 | 15 h 21 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Montreal Canadiens. This will be Calgary's fourth home game in a row, and its final one before heading out on a three-game road trip. After a loss to the Penguins on Tuesday, the Flames are 1-2 on this home-stand, so a victory tonight would even up that four-game record. Tonight, it's the Canadiens who come into town for the first meeting between these two in over a year (November 15, 2018). And although the Habs have won the last three in row, they've all been close affairs (3-2 finals in each). It's a banged-up Canadiens squad which will be visiting Scotiabank Saddledome this evening to take on an almost completely healthy Calgary club. Montreal bounced back from an embarrassing loss to the lowly Red Wings on Saturday to beat the Canucks on Tuesday despite being out-shot 39-30. They could have trouble scoring on a Flames defense that is a half-goal stingier at home than it is on the road this season (2.71 GA vs. 3.21). The Flames are 8-4 in their last 12 (+4 games on the money line) after allowing more than three goals in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Canadiens are 22-31 in their last 53 (-9 games on the money line) after a victory by two or more goals. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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12-17-19 | Grand Canyon +13 v. New Mexico | Top | 71-91 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Grand Canyon Antelopes + the points over New Mexico. Dan Majerle's men are 4-8 this season, but they've had to deal with the fact that two projected starters were in street clothes. One of those -- 6'2" point guard Mikey Dixon -- will make his season debut tonight, while the other -- 6'7" forward Oscar Frayer -- also may play if his eligibility is approved by the NCAA. Dixon was the former MAA Conference Freshman of the Year, while Frayer has started for Grand Canyon each of the previous three years, and is among the school's career statistical leaders in several categories. In its last game, New Mexico got a huge, emotional win over its rival, New Mexico State. But the Lobos are a soft 3-7 ATS at home off a SU/ATS win over New Mexico State, and 2-8 ATS off a point spread win, if they're matched up against non-conference foes. And they also fall into a negative 224-414 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit favorites. Take Grand Canyon + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-16-19 | Spurs v. Rockets -10 | Top | 107-109 | Loss | -109 | 17 h 59 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Rockets minus the points over San Antonio. The Spurs defeated the Houston Rockets in double-overtime earlier this month, 135-133, behind 28 points from Lonnie Walker IV. That game -- one in which Houston held a 22-point, 3rd quarter lead -- was made even more frustrating because the referees blew a call on a 4th quarter James Harden dunk, which was erroneously ruled as an invalid basket. The Rockets protested the loss afterward, but did the league denied the Rockets' appeal. Tonight, Houston will have an opportunity to avenge that loss. And the Spurs likely will be without their star from that game, as Walker has been sidelined with a bruised knee. San Antonio is a dreadful 4-38 straight-up, and 12-29-1 ATS as an underdog of +4 (or more) points vs. Western Conference rivals. Even better: it's 0-9 ATS this season off a straight-up win (and 3-16 ATS since March 20 off a win). Meanwhile, the Rockets are 13-2 ATS when playing with revenge from an upset loss in which they were favored by 3+ points. Lay the points with Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-15-19 | Texans +3 v. Titans | Top | 24-21 | Win | 100 | 9 h 52 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Houston Texans + the points over Tennessee. We had our biggest NFL play of the year-to-date two weeks ago when the Texans met the Patriots, and pulled off a 28-22 upset. We then, not surprisingly, went against the Texans last week vs. Denver, as a letdown was in order, and they certainly had one, as they lost outright to the Broncos, as an 8-point favorite. But I love Houston to bounce back this afternoon vs. the Titans. Indeed, since 1980, divisional road underdogs, off an upset loss by more than 10 points the previous week, are 86-49-4 ATS. It's absolutely true that Tennessee is red-hot, and on a 4-game SU/ATS win streak. But unrested teams off 4 SU/ATS wins are a soft 107-138 ATS vs. winning opponents. Finally, the Texans are 15-6 ATS their last 21 vs. Tennessee, including a perfect 8-0 ATS if the Texans failed to cover their previous game by more than 3 points. Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-14-19 | Canucks v. Sharks -120 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Vancouver Canucks. The Sharks' Peter DeBoer became one of five coaches to be fired already this NHL season. It's not surprising, as the Sharks have been one of the most inconsistent teams in the league in recent weeks, and that inconsistency has turned into some long losing streaks. They lost five straight when DeBoer was relieved of his duties and they've lost one more under new skipper Bob Boughner. That last game was vs. the NY Rangers; tonight's game is against division rival, Vancouver. And playing a team which the Sharks know extremely well -- and one which they've had a bunch of success against -- could very well result in Boughner's first win with the team. The Sharks are 12-3 in the last 15 meetings with the Canucks, and also catch the Canucks off an overtime win. Vancouver beat Carolina, 1-0, at home in its last one, but it's a wallet-busting 16-27 (-12 games on the money line) in its last 43 immediately off of a home victory. Take the Sharks. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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12-13-19 | Knicks v. Kings -8 | Top | 103-101 | Loss | -109 | 18 h 50 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Sacramento Kings minus the points over New York. Sacramento's first road win of this season was against these Knicks back on November 3, when it blew them out, 113-92. That was the 4th straight win by the Kings in this series. And it continued a long-term run of success vs. the Eastern Conference, as Sacramento's 40-14-2 ATS its last 56 vs. the East. So, we'll back them tonight at home vs. a Knicks team off a rare win. New York upset Golden State on Wednesday, 124-122, as a 4.5-point road underdog. That win snapped its 10-game losing streak, and earned interim coach Mike Miller his first win. Still, New York's yet to win back-to-back games this season (0-4 SU; 1-3 ATS), and is 25-38-1 ATS off a win, including 8-20-1 ATS vs. a foe off a point spread loss. Take the Kings. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-12-19 | Islanders v. Panthers -120 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -120 | 15 h 1 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Florida Panthers over the New York Islanders. Both of these teams played the same opponent in their last game -- the Lightning -- with very different results. While the Isles routed the Bolts at home on Monday, 5-1, the Panthers dropped a tough one in Tampa, 2-1, the following night. Repeating that five goal performance tonight in south Florida could be very tough for the visitors. The Islanders have a nice 3.27 GPG average in New York this season, but on the road, they've seen that number drop to 2.50 in 14 games. Those statistics are reflected in the Isles' record this season as they are one of the more dominant home teams at 12-2-1, but barely over .500 away from the Big Apple (8-5-1). Two of the Islanders' 12 home wins this season came at the expense of the Panthers. But this will be the first time these teams met in Miami this season. And the home team has won three of the last four meetings between these two, with the last two road victories coming in overtime or shootout. The Panthers are 6-2 in their last eight immediately following a one-goal loss and they are also 18-9 (+10 games on the money line) in their last 27 after scoring two goals or less in their last two. Take the Panthers. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.Â
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12-11-19 | Flyers v. Avalanche -155 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 14 h 17 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over Philadelphia. The Flyers will start goalie Carter Hart tonight. And he's been awful on the road this season, with a 2-4-1 record, 3.78 GAA, and .849 Saves %. Even worse: Travis Konecny, the Flyers' leading scorer (28 points; 11 goals), sustained a concussion on Saturday night, and will be sidelined. To replace Konecny on the top line, coach Alain Vigneault decided to elevate Tyler Pitlick from the 4th line, which will give the Avs a big advantage when their top line is on the ice. Colorado, of course, has its own injuries, and hopes to start Philipp Grubauer, who is banged-up, tonight. Grubauer did practice on Tuesday, and will be re-evaluated this morning before a final decision is reached. If Grubauer -- who has won his last four starts -- can't go, then Pavel Francouz will man the pipes. And all Francouz has done this season is lead the Avalanche to a 7-3 record in his starts (including a perfect 3-0 vs. Eastern Conference foes). Overall, the Avs are 8-1-2 this season vs. foes from the Eastern Conference. And they are also 8-3-2 at home, while leading the NHL in shooting (11.6%; 3.7 goals on 31.8 shots per game). Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-10-19 | Northern Iowa v. Colorado -9.5 | Top | 79-76 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 23 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Buffaloes minus the points over Northern Iowa. This is a great match-up tonight between the 24th-ranked, and 7-1 Buffs vs. the 8-1 Panthers. We'll lay the points with the home team, as Colorado is a fantastic 89-50-4 ATS when playing at home, and not favored by 17+ points (including 8-0-1 ATS its last nine), while the Panthers are a horrid 0-11 ATS away from home vs. foes off a SU/ATS loss that didn't have a winning ATS record. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-09-19 | Raptors -4.5 v. Bulls | Top | 93-92 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 8 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Chicago. We played on Toronto yesterday, but lost when they fell to defeat for the 3rd straight game. But we will get right back on the Raptors, as .562 (or better) NBA teams have cashed 66.3% ATS in the regular season since 1990 off 3 or more losses, if they were favored by more than 2 points on the road. Additionally, the Raptors have won the last 10 games in this series, including a perfect 5-0 SU/ATS here in Chicago. Lay the points. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-08-19 | Chiefs v. Patriots -3 | Top | 23-16 | Loss | -110 | 37 h 14 m | Show |
At 4:25 pm, our selection is on the New England Patriots minus the points over Kansas City. Last week, we had our strongest NFL play of the season-to-date on the Houston Texans + over New England. And we easily got the $$$ in an outright right by DeShaun Watson & Co. But we'll switch gears this Sunday, and take the Patriots off that defeat. Indeed, there's no better coach in the business than Bill Belichick when it comes to readying his troops to rebound off a loss. To wit: the Patriots are 49-9 straight-up, and 42-16 ATS (72.4%) when coming off a loss (compared to 175-56 SU and 131-94 ATS (58.2%)) when coming off a win. It's true that the Chiefs will be playing this game with revenge from last year's playoff defeat. But New England is 5-1-1 ATS when priced from -3 to -6.5 against a foe which has revenge from a playoff loss. Meanwhile, the Chiefs are 3-7 SU/ATS when playing with Playoff revenge. Lay the points with New England. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-07-19 | Georgia +7.5 v. LSU | Top | 10-37 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 58 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Georgia Bulldogs + the points over LSU. The Bulldogs have lost just once this season. And that was a 20-17 setback vs. South Carolina, in a game where the Bulldogs committed four turnovers (against 0 for the Gamecocks). The calling card for this Georgia team is its defense, as the only time it has given up 20 points in a game was that loss to South Carolina. For the season, Georgia's given up just 10.4 ppg, while LSU's defense rates 11.66 ppg worse, at 22.1. We'll take the points with the Bulldogs, as underdogs with a defense which gives up, at least, 7.9 less points than its opponent, have gone 35-14-1 ATS in the post-season. Additionally, the Bulldogs are an awesome 24-7 ATS their last 31 away from home. Take the Bulldogs + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-05-19 | Jets v. Stars -155 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 17 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Stars over the Winnipeg Jets. This is the second game of a home-and-home series between these two teams. Winnipeg won the first round at home on Monday by a 5-1 final, but several signs point to a series leveler tonight in Dallas. For one thing, the Jets are a much better team at home this season (10-5) than on the road (7-6). And by the same token, the Stars have done by far their best work here at American Airlines Center (9-5) vs. what they've done elsewhere (6-9). Second, there's the fact that Winnipeg has a long list of walking wounded now, including forwards Appleton, Little, and Letestu, and defensemen Beaulieu and Kulikov -- as well as a suspension to D Dustin Byfuglien. And it's not surprising that the Jets won round one of this series as the home team has taken 7 of the last 8 meetings of these two going back to early 2018. The Stars went with back-up goalie Anton Khudobin on Monday but tonight they will have regular #1 netminder Ben Bishop back between the pipes and Bishop has been outstanding so far this season (2.20 GAA; .928 Sv Pct). Dallas historically does very well in these situations, going 66-33 (+36 games on the money line) in their last 99 off a blowout loss by three goals or more to a division rival. Take the Stars. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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12-04-19 | Blues v. Penguins -118 | Top | 0-3 | Win | 100 | 16 h 47 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Penguins over the St. Louis Blues. In the second game of this home-and-home series, the Pens are looking for some revenge after being soundly beaten on Saturday in St. Louis, 5-2. They may have lost two in a row now but, overall, what the Penguins have done in light of the loss of Sidney Crosby is quite remarkable. And it must be said that not only are the Pens without the services of their captain for at least another few weeks, but also a plethora of other players, some of whom are also important to their success. This includes #1 RW Patric Hornqvist (lower body), winger Bryan Rust, center Nick Bjugstad and defenseman Justin Schultz. Still, since losing Crosby on November 9, the Pens have been almost a .500 team, despite his absence and those of several others. But if there is one thing that makes the Pens feel confident about tonight, it's their record at home so far this season. In 15 games here at PPG Paints Arena, the Penguins are 10-3-2. Pittsburgh is also 8-1 in its last nine (+6 games on money line) coming off of back-to-back road losses and 16-8 in its last 24 (+6 games on the money line) after allowing more than 3 goals in two straight games. Take the Pens. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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12-03-19 | Michigan v. Louisville -5.5 | Top | 43-58 | Win | 100 | 14 h 19 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Louisville Cardinals minus the points over Michigan. This is the best match-up of the season-to-date, and the final non-conference game for each team before they each have their conference home opener on Friday. The #1 Louisville Cardinals are now 7-0 after a blowout win over Western Kentucky on Friday, while Juwan Howard's Wolverines are also 7-0, and ranked #4 in the country following back to back upsets of Gonzaga and North Carolina last week. We'll play against Michigan, as .833 (or better) teams, off back to back upset wins, have gone 15-40-2 ATS vs. non-conference foes off a SU win, including 4-20 ATS if their opponent was playing with at least 3 days of rest. Take Louisville. College Hoops Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-02-19 | Vikings v. Seahawks -2.5 | Top | 30-37 | Win | 100 | 15 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Seahawks minus the points over Minnesota. This is a great match-up tonight between two teams that still have an opportunity to get the #1 seed in the NFC. These teams have met five times this decade, and the Seahawks have won each of those games, and covered all but one. I look for them to extend their win streak in this series to 6 straight, as the Seahawks are 67-25 SU and 53-36-3 ATS at home their last 92, including 33-17-2 ATS when not favored by 7+ points. Even better: Monday Night home teams off back to back road wins have gone 26-9 ATS, while the Vikings have gone 0-8 ATS their last eight Monday Night road games. Take the Seahawks...Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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12-01-19 | Browns v. Steelers OVER 39 | Top | 13-20 | Loss | -109 | 8 h 16 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Pittsburgh/Cleveland game. This is a critical game for the AFC Playoff picture. And the victor will be in a very good position to eventually snag the 6th, and final wild card spot. Last week, the Cleveland Browns had their best offensive day of the season, when they scored 41 points vs. Miami. And over his last three games, QB Baker Mayfield has been excellent, with seven touchdowns, and just one interception. Over those three games, the Browns have averaged 27 ppg on offense. The Steelers' offense has sputtered lately, so they've made a change at the quarterback position, and will start Devlin "Duck" Hodges, the former Samford star (and all-time FCS passing leader, with 14,584 career yards). Hodges made one start earlier this season, and it was a positive one, as the Steelers went into Los Angeles, and upset the Chargers, 24-17. I've liked what I've seen of Hodges when he's played this season (both in that start vs. the Charges, and as a relief QB). And he's a definite upgrade over the erstwhile starter, Mason Rudolph. This will be a relatively-high scoring game. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-30-19 | New Mexico State v. Liberty -14 | Top | 28-49 | Win | 100 | 14 h 45 m | Show |
At 2 pm, our selection is on the Liberty Flames minus the points over New Mexico State. The Aggies are 2-9 on the season, while Liberty is 6-5. So, this will be the final game of the season for the Aggies. Interestingly, this will be the 2nd time this season that these two teams have played each other, as they met in Las Cruces back in October. The Flames won that game, 20-13, as a 4-point favorite. And I look for them to sweep the season series with a blowout win, on Saturday. It will be Liberty's final home game of the season, of course. And New Mexico State is an awful 5-15 ATS on the road against a foe playing its final home game. Even worse: it's 4-44 straight-up and 16-35 ATS on the road when not favored by 4+ points. Finally, Liberty falls into my favorite College Football system, which is 91-41 ATS, and plays on certain teams off a loss when matched up against an opponent off a win. Take the Flames. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-29-19 | Missouri -12.5 v. Arkansas | Top | 24-14 | Loss | -109 | 24 h 38 m | Show |
At 2:30 pm, our selection is on the Missouri Tigers minus the points over Arkansas. Both of these teams are mired in long losing streaks. The Tigers are 0-5 SU/ATS their last five games, while Arkansas has lost its last eight games (2-6 ATS). But in November, the Tigers have been much more competitive than Arkansas, as Missouri's failed to cover the spread by just 8.3 ppg, while Arkansas has failed to cover the spread by an average of 15.16 ppg. It's somewhat counter-intuitive, but since 1981, losing teams, off ATS losses in each of their last four games, have actually covered 67.7% as big, double-digit favorites. And Missouri also falls into an 83-31 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off ATS losses. Finally, the Tigers are 9-0 ATS since 1986 off 5 straight losses. Take Missouri. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-28-19 | Bills v. Cowboys -6.5 | Top | 26-15 | Loss | -104 | 11 h 21 m | Show |
At 4:30 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Cowboys minus the points over Buffalo. The Bills are 8-3 on the season, yet have been installed as a big underdog at Dallas this afternoon. The knee-jerk reaction might be to grab the points with Buffalo given that it's lost by more than six points just once this season. But consider that .700 (or better) road underdogs of 5+ points, off back-to-back wins, have cashed just 22.5% in the regular season since 1986, at Game 12 forward. That doesn't bode well for the Bills today. Nor does the fact that they're 0-16-1 ATS off back-to-back point spread wins when matched up against a .666 (or worse) foe not off back to back SU/ATS losses. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-27-19 | Ducks v. Coyotes -140 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 20 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Coyotes over the Anaheim Ducks. Through the years, this has been a lopsided series in favor of Anaheim. Since coming into the league, the Ducks have won 48 of 81 regular season games vs the Coyotes, going back to 2005. But more recently, the Coyotes have turned the tables on the Ducks. In the last five meetings of these two, Arizona has gone 3-2 while out-scoring the Ducks. 16-12 (though it did lose this season's prior meeting). The Coyotes have not had a winning season since 2012-2013 (and not made the post-season since then as well), but they're looking to change that. Through their first 25 games, the Coyotes are 14-8-3 and sitting in 2nd place in the Pacific Division. The biggest change has been their defense and goaltending. Through those 25 games, Arizona has the best goals-against average in the league at 2.28. But as impressive as that is, it gets even better when they're playing at home. In 12 contests here at Gila River Arena, the Coyotes have allowed an average of just 1.92 goals per game. If that wasn't enough, consider the fact that the Ducks are averaging just 2.42 goals scored per game this season when playing away from Anaheim. The Ducks are 4-9 in their last 13 games (-6 games on the money line) after shutting out their opponent in the previous game, while Arizona is 10-2 at home when playing with revenge from a loss earlier in the season. Take Arizona. As always, good luck...Al McMordie
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11-26-19 | Western Illinois v. Ball State -17 | Top | 69-62 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 30 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Ball State Cardinals minus the points over Western Illinois. This will be the Leathernecks' 2nd road game of the season. And the first didn't go so well, as they were blown out by 33-points in Bloomington by the Indiana Hoosiers. Western Illinois is now 29-53-1 ATS as a road underdog, including 0-12 ATS as an underdog priced from +11 to +18 points vs. non-conference foes. And the Leathernecks also fall into a negative 58-136 ATS system of mine which goes against certain double-digit road underdogs. Take Ball State minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-25-19 | BYU v. UCLA +1 | Top | 78-63 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 35 m | Show |
At 11:30 pm, our selection is on the UCLA Bruins over BYU. Both of these teams come into tonight's game off upset losses. The Bruins fell at home, 88-78, to Hofstra, while BYU lost at Boise State, 72-68. We'll take Mick Cronin's men tonight, and go against BYU, which is an awful 21-53-3 ATS at home, or on neutral courts, when not laying more than 3 points.  Meanwhile, Pac-12 Conference teams have cashed 66.0% off an upset loss as an 8-point (or greater) favorite, if their current game was at home, or on a neutral court. Take UCLA. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-24-19 | Lions -3.5 v. Redskins | Top | 16-19 | Loss | -106 | 8 h 27 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Detroit Lions minus the points over Washington. After a promising 2-0-1 start, which included wins over the Chargers and Eagles, Detroit has dropped six of seven games. Of course, it also must be noted that Detroit's one win in this stretch was against the Giants, who have a losing record, at 2-8. And, for the season, Detroit's gone 3-1-1 in its five games against teams that currently have a .500 (or worse) record (Cardinals, Chargers, Eagles, Bears, Giants). In contrast, Detroit's 0-5 vs. teams that currently have a winning record (Chiefs, Packers, Raiders, Cowboys, Vikings). That bodes well for the Lions in this game on Sunday afternoon, against the 1-9 Redskins. As does the fact that losing NFL teams, off back to back losses, have gone 40-15 ATS as road favorites of more than 3 points. Finally, Washington's 15-31 ATS at home vs. teams that didn't own a winning record. Take Detroit. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-23-19 | Boise State v. Utah State +9 | Top | 56-21 | Loss | -105 | 21 h 40 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Utah State Aggies + the points over Boise State. Both teams come into this game with issues at the quarterback position. Utah State's Jordan Love suffered an undisclosed injury last Saturday vs. Wyoming, and is questionable for this week. Likewise, Boise State used its 3rd string quarterback, Jaylon Henderson, vs. New Mexico last week. Henderson did pass for 3 touchdowns and 292 yards in that game -- a 42-9 win, as a 24.5-point favorite -- to earn Mountain West Offensive Player of the Week honors. But it must be said that Henderson's performance came against a Lobos team which is the worst Division I (FBS) team on Boise's schedule this season. The Aggies, at 5-1 in Mountain West games this year, will be a much more difficult test. Even worse for Boise: its top defensive player -- Curtis Weaver -- hurt his right leg last week, and also might be in street clothes for this game. We'll grab the points with Utah State on Saturday night, in its final home game of the season, as the Aggies fall into a strong conference system. What we want to do is play on Mountain West home teams with a winning record -- both within the conference and overall -- if they're not favored by 6+ points. Such teams have covered 67 percent, including a perfect 10-0 ATS when getting more than 3 points in their final home game of the season. And Mountain West conference teams, regardless of their record, have also gone 41-24 ATS as underdogs in their final home game of the season. Take the Aggies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-21-19 | Central Michigan v. Minnesota -10 | Top | 57-82 | Win | 102 | 3 h 58 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Golden Gophers minus the points over Central Michigan. The Chippewas come into this game with a spotless 4-0 record. Of course, that's to be expected as their games were against Michigan-Dearborn, Mississippi Valley St., Sam Houston St. and Siena Heights. Minnesota, meanwhile, is 1-3, but its last three games were against Oklahoma, Butler and Utah, all of whom rate better than the Gophers. In its lone game this season against an inferior opponent (Cleveland St.), the Gophers walloped them, 85-50, as a 22-point favorite. Minnesota is also favored by double-digits tonight. And the Gophers fall into an 62.2% ATS system of mine which plays on certain big favorites with inferior records. Minnesota's also 34-19 ATS as a non-conference favorite, priced from -3 to -21, while Central Michigan is a wallet-busting 17-35-1 ATS vs. non-conference foes off a loss, including 0-8-1 ATS when priced from +6.5 to +16.5 points. Take Minnesota. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-20-19 | Princeton v. Indiana -18 | Top | 54-79 | Win | 100 | 15 h 22 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Hoosiers minus the points over Princeton. The Tigers enter tonight's game on an 0-3 SU/ATS run to start the season, while Indiana is 4-0 straight-up, and 3-1 ATS. I look for Archie Miller's men to register another blowout win tonight, as Indiana is a spectacular 73-43 ATS at home vs. non-conference foes when favored by 10+ points. Meanwhile, Princeton is a wallet-busting 4-29 straight-up and 8-24-1 ATS as an underdog, including 0-15 ATS in the regular season when the Tigers weren't off a win! Take the Hoosiers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-19-19 | Eastern Michigan v. Northern Illinois -4 | Top | 45-17 | Loss | -110 | 13 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies minus the points over Eastern Michigan. We played on Northern Illinois last Wednesday, at Toledo, and got the $$$ with it in a 31-28 victory, as a road underdog. That moved the Huskies' record to 4-6 on the season. So, if it wins its final two games, then it will become bowl-eligible. We'll play on Northern Illinois tonight as a home favorite, as losing teams (at Game 9 forward) have cashed 65.1% since 1980 if they were off a win, and favored at home by 3 (or more) points over a conference foe off a SU/ATS win. Even better: Northern Illinois has gone 15-2 ATS off an upset win over a conference foe, including a perfect 11-0 when favored by 3+ points. And Eastern Michigan is a woeful 12-30 ATS on the road off a straight-up win. Take the Huskies. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-18-19 | Chiefs v. Chargers UNDER 53 | Top | 24-17 | Win | 100 | 17 h 1 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the KC Chiefs/Los Angeles Chargers game. Kansas City's last three games have each gone 'over' the total, and those three games combined for 171 total points (55, 49 and 67). But I look for a lower scoring game tonight, as NFL games have gone UNDER 167-117 (59%) since 1980, including 15-4 (79%) UNDER on Monday Night Football, when the O/U line was 47+ points -- provided one of the teams was off 3 OVERS, and its previous three games combined to exceed 160 total points. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-17-19 | Bears v. Rams OVER 39 | Top | 7-17 | Loss | -110 | 30 h 39 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the OVER in the Los Angeles Rams/Chicago Bears game. Both of these teams enter tonight's contest off a string of relatively-low scoring games. The Bears' last three games have all gone 'under' the total, while the Rams have gone 'under' in four straight games. The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another low scoring game here, especially since last season's game between these two teams only produced 21 points (Chicago 15 Los Angeles 6). But, over the last 40 seasons, match-ups between two teams that have each gone 'under' the total in each of their previous three games actually go 'OVER' the total more often than not. Even better: the Rams have gone 'OVER' the total in 12 of their last 13 games when they had gone 'under' in each of their four previous games, and they've also gone 'over' the total 33 of 55 games if their opponent was off three 'unders.' Likewise, since 1980, the Bears have gone 'over' the total 62% of the time if their opponent was off four 'unders.' Finally, the 'OVER' falls into a totals system of mine which is 61-34 since 1980. Take the 'OVER.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-16-19 | Minnesota v. Iowa -3 | Top | 19-23 | Win | 100 | 29 h 40 m | Show |
At 4 pm, our selection is on the Iowa Hawkeyes minus the points over Minnesota. Last week, we played on the Gophers + the points over Penn State, and were rewarded with a 31-26 upset victory over the then-undefeated Nittany Lions. But off that upset win over Penn State, we'll fade Minnesota on Saturday. For technical support, consider that teams off upset wins over undefeated opponents (that hadn't lost through at least their first 7 games) have had letdowns the following week, and especially on the road where they've covered just 38.0%. But that's not the best part. If our 'play-against' team (here, Minnesota) is now playing an opponent with a .666 (or better) record, then our road teams have covered just 13.3% since 1983. Take Iowa minus the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-15-19 | Louisiana Tech v. Marshall -4.5 | Top | 10-31 | Win | 100 | 25 h 58 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the Marshall Thundering Herd minus the points over Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs come into this game on an 8-game win streak, and are one game ahead of Southern Miss in the West division race. Marshall also is in prime contention to make the Conference USA Title game, as it's 4-1 in conference play, and is a half-game behind Florida Atlantic in the East division standings. We'll take the home team tonight, and go against Louisiana Tech, as unrested underdogs of +3 (or more) points, on a 6-game (or better) win streak, have covered the spread in just 33.9% of their conference games since 1980. Even worse for the Bulldogs: they're an awful 4-25 straight-up, and 8-21 ATS as road underdogs of +5 (or more) points off a win. Take Marshall. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-14-19 | Mavs -7 v. Knicks | Top | 103-106 | Loss | -109 | 14 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Dallas Mavericks minus the points over New York. This is a big revenge game for the Mavericks, who lost at home to New York last Friday, 106-102, as an 11-point favorite. Since that game, the Mavs have gone 1-1, including a loss at Boston on Monday. But I love Dallas to rebound tonight, as it's 20-8 ATS on the road off a loss, including 5-0 ATS as a favorite. And it's 24-12 ATS its last 36 as a road favorite off a defeat. Meanwhile, New York is an awful 17-39-2 ATS at home when not favored by more than 3 points. Take Dallas. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-13-19 | Northern Illinois +2.5 v. Toledo | Top | 31-28 | Win | 100 | 13 h 50 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Northern Illinois Huskies + the points over Toledo. The Huskies come into this game off a 48-10 upset loss at Central Michigan. But off that poor performance, we'll look for Northern Illinois to bounce back tonight. Indeed, road underdogs off a 37-point (or worse) upset loss, have cashed 75% in Conference games since 1990 vs. opponents off a straight-up win. Also, Northern Illinois is a super 42-24 ATS their last 66 as road underdogs, including 3-1 ATS off an upset loss. Take the Huskies + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-12-19 | Panthers v. Bruins -159 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -159 | 13 h 47 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Florida Panthers. The Panthers had a big win on Sunday, beating the Rangers at Madison Square Garden, 6-5 in a shootout. While that victory is important -- as is any win on the road these days -- it should be noted that the Rangers have the second-worst goals-against number at home this season at 3.60 (only New Jersey's 3.75 is higher). And when it comes to protecting the goal at home, no team is better at it this season than the Bruins, who sport a sparkling 1.78 GAA here at the TD Center, which is tops in the league so far. The Bruins come into this game having lost three straight (for the first time this season) but they are 6-2 (+5 games on the money line) in their last eight coming off of a three-game losing streak. They are also 16-9 (+4 games on the money line) in their last 25 after losing their previous game in OT. Meanwhile the Panthers are 6-11 (-7 games on the money line) after scoring 6 or more goals. Finally, the home team is 6-3 in the last nine meetings of these two. Take the Bruins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â
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11-11-19 | Senators v. Hurricanes -225 | Top | 2-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 13 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Ottawa Senators. This is the 2nd game of a home-and-home series, which commenced Saturday, in Ottawa. The homestanding Senators won that game, 4-1, which was Carolina's fourth straight defeat (by an aggregate score of 17-7). But now the Hurricanes are back home. And they're 9-2 after allowing more than three goals in four straight games. That bodes well for Carolina on Monday. As does the fact that Ottawa is an awful 2-18 on the road after scoring more than 3 goals in its previous game, and also 4-16 after winning back-to-back games. Take Carolina. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-10-19 | Bills v. Browns -2.5 | Top | 16-19 | Win | 100 | 21 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Cleveland Browns minus the points over Buffalo. The Browns are 2-6 on the season, and lost as a road favorite last week in Denver. Meanwhile, Buffalo is 6-2, and won and covered its last game -- at home -- vs. the Redskins. The knee-jerk reaction might be to take the 6-2 Bills as an underdog, especially given that the Browns have lost their last four games. But consider that NFL underdogs have covered 0 of 9 games in the 2nd half of the season if they owned a win percentage at least .400 greater than their opponent. That doesn't bode well for the Bills on Sunday. Nor does the fact that teams off 4+ losses, including an upset defeat in their previous game, have cashed 70% since 2001 when not getting more than 3 points. Take Cleveland to blow out Buffalo. Lay the points. NFL Favorite of the Month! Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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11-09-19 | Louisville v. Miami-FL -6.5 | Top | 27-52 | Win | 100 | 33 h 19 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Miami-Fla Hurricanes minus the points over Louisville. Last week, we played on the Cardinals as a home underdog vs. Virginia, and got the $$$ in a 28-21 upset victory. But we will switch gears, and go against Louisville on the road this week. They'll travel to south Florida to take on a 5-4 Miami squad playing their final home game of the season. And the Hurricanes are returning home after upset road wins at Pittsburgh, and at Florida State. And I love them to extend their win streak on Saturday, as they've cashed 91% over the last 40 seasons off an upset conference win the previous week. Additionally, winning teams playing their final home game of the season have cashed 58% over the last 40 years off back to back road wins, if matched up against a conference foe. And, finally, Miami also falls into 191-95 and 125-51 ATS systems of mine that play on certain home favorites off wins vs. foes off an upset win. Take the Hurricanes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-08-19 | Washington v. Oregon State +10.5 | Top | 19-7 | Loss | -112 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
At 10:30 pm, our selection is on the Oregon State Beavers + the points over Washington. The Beavers have been installed as a double-digit home underdog notwithstanding the fact that they come into this game off back to back upset ROAD wins (at California and Arizona). Meanwhile, the Huskies enter tonight's fray off back to back HOME losses to Oregon and Utah. We'll take the points with Oregon State, as home underdogs of more than 7 points, off back to back wins, have covered 78% since 1980 vs. foes off back to back losses. Take the Beavers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-07-19 | Temple -1.5 v. South Florida | Top | 17-7 | Win | 100 | 15 h 60 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Temple Owls minus the points over South Florida. Temple dropped its last two games -- both SU and ATS -- which lowered its record to 5-3 on the season. But .600 (or better) teams have gone 71-49 ATS as a road favorite off back to back losses. And the Owls are an awesome 73-44-1 ATS its last 118 on the road, while the Bulls are a horrid 12-24-1 ATS at home vs. conference rivals, including 0-7 ATS their last seven. Take Temple. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-06-19 | Miami-OH v. Ohio -7 | Top | 24-21 | Loss | -105 | 14 h 29 m | Show |
At 8 pm, our selection is on the Ohio U. Bobcats minus the points over Miami-Ohio. In their last game, the Bobcats went into Muncie, Indiana, and upset Ball State, 34-21, as a 2-point underdog. Off that win, we'll play on Ohio, as it's gone 8-0 ATS at home off an upset win. Meanwhile, the Red Hawks come into Athens off back to back upset wins over Northern Illinois and Kent State. Unfortunately, they're not likely to make it 3 upset wins in a row. Indeed, since 1980, road underdogs off an upset road win have cashed just 36% vs. conference foes off a win, if our road dog also won as an underdog two games back. The Bobcats are also a super 11-2 straight-up, and 8-4-1 ATS in their last 13 vs. the Red Hawks. Take Ohio to blow out Miami. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-05-19 | Coyotes v. Flames -155 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 18 h 19 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Calgary Flames over the Arizona Coyotes. The Flames return home tonight from a brutal six-game road trip which featured five teams with winning records. They wrapped up on Sunday against possibly the hottest team in the league right now in the Washington Capitals and held their own, losing a tough 4-2 contest in DC. Their reward for a such a difficult road trip is that they get a home game against a Coyotes team that they've dominated recently. Sure, Arizona stands to be improved from the 39-43 record they put up last season, but whether they're good enough to make the post-season for the first time since 2012 remains to be seen. The Coyotes added Phil Kessel and Carl Soderberg over the summer (both by trade) in an effort to boost their offense, but so far results are mixed. With a 2.85 GPG average, the Coyotes are just 20th in the league in scoring and that number is even lower on the road (2.71). Meanwhile, Arizona may find out tonight just how happy the Flames are to be back home as they are averaging 3.67 GPG here at the Scotiabank Saddledome this season. The Flames are also 35-25 (+6 games on the money line) in their last 60 immediately after allowing four or more goals in their previous game. Take Calgary. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â
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11-05-19 | Spurs v. Hawks OVER 219 | Top | 100-108 | Loss | -110 | 9 h 11 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Atlanta Hawks and San Antonio Spurs to go 'over' the total. Trae Young (26.8 ppg) has been upgraded to 'probable,' and that's all I needed to pull the trigger on this game to go 'over' the total. San Antonio is running a lot more this season, now that Dejounte Murray is healthy again (after missing last season). Murray was one of the lone bright spots for the Spurs in their loss to the Lakers on Sunday, as he totaled 18 points, 11 rebounds and four assists in 24 minutes. And one can see what his presence in the line-up this year has done for the team's offensive strategy, as a whole. This season, the Spurs rank #1 in fastbreak points per game (19.8), compared to ranking #30 last season (10.3 ppg). And their pace of play has jumped from #22 to #11. It's true that Murray is on a minutes restriction (24) and won't play on back-to-back nights for the first part of this season. But that's not a problem in this game, since the Spurs are rested, and don't play again until Thursday. So, he'll be on the floor. I look for a relatively-high scoring game tonight. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-04-19 | Cowboys v. Giants UNDER 48.5 | Top | 37-18 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys Under the total. Each of these two teams come into this game off a string of relatively-high scoring games. Dallas' last three games have produced 58, 46 and 47 points, while the New York Giants' last three games have generated 49, 48 and 57 points.  The knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another high-scoring game, especially since the first meeting (in Week 1) between these two teams resulted in a 52-point game. But match-ups between division rivals -- with Over/Under lines greater than 47 points -- have gone UNDER the total 62% of the time since 1980 if previous three games for each of the two teams resulted in 43+ points being scored. Take the UNDER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-19 | Jazz v. Clippers OVER 212 | Top | 94-105 | Loss | -107 | 17 h 17 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers and Utah Jazz 'over' the total. These two teams met just four days ago, and the Jazz held the Clippers to just 96 points, in a 110-96 win. That was the only time this season that Los Angeles failed to score more than 100 points. Of course, it also must be noted that Kawhi Leonard (and his 29.2 points per game) were in street clothes for that game. In the five games that Leonard has been on the court, the Clippers have averaged 117.8 points per game. The over/under for the first meeting was 216.5 points, and this number opened much lower, despite the fact that Leonard will play. I believe it's an over-reaction to the result of the first meeting, as well as to the fact that both teams have gone 'under' the total by more than 10 points in each of their three previous games. That's certainly not a common situation. But it happened last season when Detroit and Philadelphia met on December 7. The 76ers had gone 'under' the total by 14, 13.5 and 13 points in their three previous games, while the Pistons had gone 'under' by 19, 24.5 and 15.5 points in their three previous games. But the two teams combined for 228 points, and sailed 'over' the total. The Clippers have gone 'over' the total in 13 of their last 15 games when favored, and playing with revenge. And the 15 games also averaged 232.4 ppg. This game will be very high-scoring. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-03-19 | Patriots v. Ravens +3.5 | Top | 20-37 | Win | 100 | 31 h 33 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Ravens + the points over New England. The Patriots are one of two undefeated teams in the NFL. And they're 6-2 ATS. But they've benefited from a ridiculously easy schedule. Only one of New England's previous eight opponents currently has a winning record. That would be the Buffalo Bills. And New England didn't cover the point spread in that game, and was actually out-gained in yardage, 375-224, but was able to win because the Bills committed three more turnovers than did New England. Baltimore will thus be the 2nd winning opponent which the Patriots will face this season. The Ravens are 5-2, and come into this game off a bye week following their upset win, at Seattle. That bodes well for them, as rested teams have gone 11-4 ATS as an underdog vs. New England if the Patriots were unrested. Also, .700 (or better) teams have gone 17-8 ATS vs. New England as a home underdog. Those team trends are nice. But I also have many league-wide NFL systems against New England. For example, .666 (or better) NFL home underdogs of +1.5 (or more) points have cashed 73% since 1980 off a road win, if they're playing an opponent off a home win. And .666 (or better) home underdogs have cashed 60% of the time (at Week 7 forward) vs. non-division foes. Admittedly, it's true that the Patriots have won and covered each of their last four games by wide margins (33-7, 35-14, 33-0, 27-13). Unfortunately, .500 (or better) NFL teams, off 4 straight wins and covers, in which they scored 24+ points in each game, have covered just 30% of the time vs. .666 (or better) foes.  The Patriots win streak will end on Sunday night. Take the Ravens + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-02-19 | SMU v. Memphis -5.5 | Top | 48-54 | Win | 100 | 37 h 20 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Memphis Tigers minus the points over SMU. In this battle for American Athletic Conference West division supremacy, we'll side with the homestanding Tigers. Memphis comes into this game with a 3-1 record in the AAC, one game behind SMU, which is 4-0, and a half-game behind Navy, which is 4-1. So, this game is a "must-win" for the Tigers if they want to get back to the AAC Championship game in December. And the Tigers have been a juggernaut at home vs. conference foes, as they've won 10 of the last 11. Even more impressive is the fact that they've covered 9 straight home conference games -- by an average of 10.04 points per game! Meanwhile, SMU is a dreadful 2-8 ATS its last 10 road games vs. conference foes, including 0-5 ATS vs. foes with a .400 (or better) win percentage. And it's also 2-12 ATS in conference road games off back to back conference wins, and 12-34 ATS as road underdogs of +10 or less points (or PK). Finally, Memphis falls into 82-46, 364-266, 123-73, 184-104 and 66-28 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams with strong offenses (Memphis averages 39.5 ppg). Lay the points with the Tigers. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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11-01-19 | Stars v. Avalanche -141 | Top | 2-1 | Loss | -141 | 15 h 56 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over Dallas. The Avalanche have dropped their last two games. But those two were against Florida and Anaheim -- two teams that would, if the season ended today, be in the Playoffs. The Dallas Stars, meanwhile, come into tonight's game with a losing record (5-8-1). And Dallas is also an awful 2-5 on the road this season. The Stars did win their last game, 6-3, vs. Minnesota. But the Wild are a woeful 4-9 on the season. And Dallas is 9-17 (minus 14 games on the money line) after scoring 5+ goals in its previous game, while the Avalanche are 37-27 (+14 games on the money line) after giving up 3+ goals in each of their two previous games. Take Colorado. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-31-19 | Heat v. Hawks OVER 216.5 | Top | 106-97 | Loss | -109 | 15 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the 'OVER' in the Atlanta/Miami game. These two teams played a few nights back, and the Heat won that game, 112-97. The over/under line in that game was 224.5, so tonight's number is significantly less than what was offered for that game. Admittedly, Atlanta guard Trae Young will be out tonight, but this over/under line is somewhat of an over-reaction. The Hawks have gone 'over' the total in 39 of 59 home games off a loss, including 12-4 'over' vs. division rivals. Also, the 'over' falls into a system of mine which has cashed 60.4% since 1990. Take the 'over.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-30-19 | Nationals +125 v. Astros | Top | 6-2 | Win | 125 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the Houston Astros. In early September, I released the Washington Nationals at 18-1 odds to win the World Series. So, now that they are in a Winner-Take-All game for the Title, it's not a surprise that I will go with the Nats, who will have their ace, Max Scherzer on the hill. (And, should it hit, it would be our 2nd monster futures winner this year, as we also had Virginia at 22-1 odds to win the NCAA Basketball Title.) When Scherzer was scratched from his planned Sunday start in Game 5 in Washington, it sounded like there was no way he would make another appearance in this series. But great athletes sometimes find a way to come back, even when they are in so much pain they can't get out of bed. One cortisone shot and a bullpen session later and Scherzer has declared himself ready to go in the ultimate baseball game of the season. And who are we to doubt a three-time Cy Young award winner who is as big a competitor as there is in the game? We also played on the Nationals in Game 6 yesterday. And their resounding 7-2 victory should only serve to get Scherzer's juices flowing even more. RHP Zack Greinke will go the mound for the 'Stros tonight and although he pitched very well in Game 3 in DC, it's interesting to note that all season Greinke did better on the road than he did at home (which is quite unusual for Greinke, as he has been a dominant home pitcher for most of his career). His regular season ERA at Minute Maid Park after coming over to the Astros was a pedestrian 3.99 (in five starts) and in his only previous post-season start here, Greinke allowed three runs in six innings in a lopsided 7-0 loss in Game 1 of the ALCS vs. the Yanks. Washington is 22-8 in the last 30 meetings and 11-1 in the last 12 in Houston. Take the Nats. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-19 | Nationals v. Astros UNDER 7.5 | Top | 7-2 | Loss | -113 | 27 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals and Houston Astros 'under' the total. In their worst nightmare the Nationals probably wouldn't have imagined the first three home World Series games played in DC in almost a century in which they would score a total of three runs on only 17 hits. But that's what happened in Games 3-5 over the weekend and now the Nats must figure out a way to get some runs across the plate on the road. Sure, they were able to do that in Game 2, but they were also held to two runs on six hits through the first six innings of that one thanks to some solid pitching by starter Justin Verlander. Verlander gets the call again tonight opposite Nats' ace Stephen Strasburg, so this is the same match-up as that Game 2. The Houston bullpen imploded in that one, but it has really settled down of late. In the three games in DC, Astros' relievers allowed a total of just one run on four hits in 10 1/3 combined innings. The under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings of these two teams in Houston and 16-6 in Verlander's last 22 starts vs. teams with winning records. Take the 'under.' As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-29-19 | Capitals v. Maple Leafs -120 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Washington Capitals. The big question facing the Capitals this season as they start a legitimate campaign for their second Stanley Cup in the last three years, is whether this will be the final season in DC for the core group of stars. Alex Ovechkin may have two years left on his contract, but both Nicklas Backstrom and Braden Holtby will be free agents come the Summer of 2020. While the Caps may work out a deal for their veteran center, Holtby is another matter. The 30-year-old goaltender has been showing signs of a decline so far this fall, and the Caps have 22-year-old Ilya Samsonov perhaps ready to take over in net. The 2015 first round draft pick has already appeared in five games (started in four) and the young net-minder has better overall numbers than Holtby who will be in goal for tonight's contest in Toronto. Holtby's career statistics against the Leafs are solid, but last season he struggled against them, going 1-2 with a 3.96 GAA and .896 saves pct in three games vs. Toronto. The Leafs lost on the road to the Canadiens, 5-2, on Saturday. But they are 15-3 at home their last 18 after losing on the road in their previous game. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-19 | Panthers v. Canucks -115 | Top | 2-7 | Win | 100 | 16 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over the Florida Panthers. It's been five seasons since the Canucks made the playoffs. Last season, Vancouver was just 35-36-11, but that was actually better than they had done in the previous two campaigns. And with the changes they made in the off-season, a playoff appearance next Spring is not out of the question.  The biggest off-season news were the signings of defensemen Tyler Myers (five-year contract) and Jordie Benn. Up front, the Canucks also added some versatile players with offensive upside in Micheal Ferland (Carolina) and J.T. Miller, for whom they traded a first-round pick to the Lightning. Finally, GM Jim Benning re-signed forward Brock Boeser on a good bridge deal ($5.875 million AAV for three years). There's no more cap room, but the Canucks have 16 players under contract through next season. The Panthers' biggest signing was behind the bench as Joel Quenneville was hired to handle the head coaching duties. Goalie Sergei Bobrovsky was also brought in, but he has some big skates to fill in future Hall-of-Famer Roberto Luongo, who retired. Bobrovsky has struggled so far and Florida's 3.60 GAA is the fourth-worst in the league. We'll take the Canucks, as the home team is 6-2 in the last eight meetings of these two. Take Vancouver. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-19 | Dolphins +15 v. Steelers | Top | 14-27 | Win | 100 | 14 h 42 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the Miami Dolphins + the points over Pittsburgh. The Dolphins are 0-6 on the season, but they've covered the point spread in their last two games. We stayed away from playing on or against Miami for its first five contests, but stepped in last Sunday and took the points with it against Buffalo (and cashed). We'll take the Dolphins once again tonight, as winless NFL underdogs of +7 (or more) points have gone 44-16-2 ATS (at Game 6 forward) on the road vs. non-division opponents. Also, Monday Night Football underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 22-6-1 ATS. Take the Dolphins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-28-19 | Pacers -2 v. Pistons | Top | 94-96 | Loss | -106 | 13 h 30 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers minus the points over Detroit. Tonight, the Pistons will play the 3rd game of a 3-game home stand. And they'll try to snap their 2-game SU/ATS losing streak, as they fell here, at home, vs. Atlanta and Philadelphia to start the home stand. This is a revenge game for Indiana, which lost on Opening Night, at home, to these Pistons. Overall, the Pacers are 0-2 on the young season, as they also lost to Cleveland, 110-99, on Saturday. We'll lay the points with Indiana, as it's 123-83-4 ATS as a favorite off a loss, when playing with revenge, including 43-22-1 ATS vs. division rivals -- and, then, 6-1 ATS as a road favorite vs. division rivals. Meanwhile, Detroit is a horrid 10-25 ATS at home off a point spread defeat, including 0-6 ATS its last six. Finally, the Pacers fall into 70-28 and 127-56 ATS systems of mine that play on certain teams off losses. Lay the points with Indy. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-27-19 | Broncos +6.5 v. Colts | Top | 13-15 | Win | 100 | 80 h 35 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the Denver Broncos + the points over Indianapolis. The Broncos were blown out, 30-6, as a 3-point home underdog last week. But I love them to rebound on Sunday at Indianpolis. The Colts come into this game off two huge victories: a 19-13 win at Kansas City, who knocked them out of last year's playoffs, and a 30-23 win over division rival, Houston. Last week's win moved Indy to 4-2 on the season -- and into first place in the AFC South -- a half-game ahead of the Texans, who fell to 4-3. But NFL home teams have covered just 32% (at Game 5 forward) over the last 40 years if they were off back to back wins over .666 (or better) opponents. That doesn't bode well for Indianapolis. Nor does the fact that favorites off a division win have covered just 42 of 118 games vs. foes off a home loss in which they failed to cover the spread by more than 18 points. Take the Broncos + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-26-19 | Utah State v. Air Force -3.5 | Top | 7-31 | Win | 100 | 92 h 21 m | Show |
At 10:15 pm, our selection is on the Air Force minus the points over Utah State. Last year, the Aggies downed Air Force, 42-32, which snapped Air Force's 3-game SU/ATS win streak in this series. But I love Air Force to avenge that defeat, as it's 9-3-1 ATS at home when playing with revenge from a double-digit loss. And this is a huge game for Air Force, as it currently sits one game behind Utah State in the Mountain West's division standings. And the Aggies fall into a negative 72-123 ATS system of mine which goes against certain teams that sit atop their Conference standings. Last week, Air Force had a nice tune-up for this game when it pasted Hawaii, 56-26. That was the Falcons' 2nd straight double-digit win, which has triggered a great 69.7% ATS 'momentum' system of mine. What we want to do is play on any unrested NCAA team off back to back double-digit wins, and back to back double-digit covers, if it was playing at home vs. a conference rival, and not favored by 6+ points. That bodes well for the Falcons on Saturday. As does the fact that it's 10-0 ATS the past five years off a 20-point (or greater) win. Take Air Force. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-19 | Jazz v. Lakers -3.5 | Top | 86-95 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Lakers minus the points over Utah. The Jazz have been installed as a road underdog at Los Angeles. Unfortunately, they've covered just 49 of 135 in the regular season when priced as an underdog from +3 to +8.5 points against a rested foe. The Lakers, meanwhile, stumbled in their season opener on Tuesday, as they were upset by the rival Clippers. But home favorites have cashed 71% since 1991 off an upset loss on the road to start the season. Lay the points with Los Angeles. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-19 | Astros -133 v. Nationals | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 29 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals. In a somewhat surprising turn of events, it's the Nationals and not the Astros that are leading the World Series, 2-0, after the first two games in Houston. As expected, both teams' starting pitching has been very good up to this point. But not as expected is the fact that it's the Nationals' hitting, bullpen, and defense that has been stellar -- not the Astros' -- thereby leading to a lopsided first two games in which DC has out-scored Houston by a combined 17-7. If ever there was a time for RHP Zack Greinke to show the 'Stros that it was a good idea to trade for him at the deadline, tonight is it. Greinke gets the ball for Game 3 against RHP Anibal Sanchez. Sure, Greinke has not been very good this post-season (0-2 with a 6.43 ERA in three starts) but if there's one thing that can get him on track, it might be a start vs. the Nats. In nine career starts against them, Greinke is 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA and 0.83 WHIP. And four of those were here in DC, where the ERA is even better (1.11). Greinke's teams have also been fantastic with him on the mound following a loss, as they've gone 30-11 (+17 games on the money line). Finally, the Astros are 74-33 as a road favorite priced from -125 to -175 (+25 games on the money line). Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-25-19 | Sharks v. Maple Leafs -165 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 100 | 14 h 8 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the San Jose Sharks. With all the talent that's on this Maple Leafs team, you have to wonder when they will be able to get at least to the second round of the Playoffs. The first round is as far as this club has gotten in the last three seasons, and it would seem that, at some point, they will make a great leap forward. Toronto is certainly hoping this will be this season with 22-year-old Mitch Marner having been locked up with a huge contract to play alongside the likes of superstars Auston Matthews and John Tavares. Perhaps the final answer will lie with goalie Frederik Andersen who -- at the age of 30 -- needs to show if he can be a Stanley Cup-caliber net-minder. 25-year-old LW Andreas Johnson is a breakout candidate after getting some consideration for the Calder Trophy last season. So far, he has lived up to the hype with seven points in his first 11 games.  Jason Spezza, meanwhile, arrived during the off-season on a one-year, $700,000 deal to be the fourth-line center and that's not too shabby.  The Leafs have won each of the last three meetings with the Sharks going back to January 2018, while the home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-24-19 | Clippers v. Warriors +2 | Top | 141-122 | Loss | -101 | 17 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors + the points over the L.A. Clippers. Kawhi Leonard & Co. opened the 2019-20 season with an upset win at home over the Lakers. But off that emotional win, we'll step in and go against the Clippers as a road favorite vs. the defending Western Conference champs. Since 1991, teams that lost the NBA Finals the previous season have opened up the next year by going 18-10 ATS in Game 1. Also, the Warriors have dominated at home vs. foes off a win, as they're 53-32 ATS their last 85. Finally, NBA teams have cashed 61.9% as underdogs in their home opener over the past 29 years, provided they were not a losing team the previous season. Grab the points with Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-19 | Redskins +17 v. Vikings | Top | 9-19 | Win | 100 | 45 h 22 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the Washington Redskins + the points over Minnesota. These two teams are obviously heading in opposite directions. Washington is 1-6 this season, and lost 9-0 at home to the 49ers last week (though it covered the 10-point spread), while the Vikes have won (and covered) each of their last three games. And over its last two games, Minnesota has had its best offensive outputs (38, 42 points) of the season. But before one walks to the window and plunks down some $$$ on Minnesota, consider that teams off a shutout defeat at home (like Washington) have gone 69.7% ATS since 2001. And NFL teams off a win (like Minnesota), who have scored more than 60 points more than their opponent over their two previous games (Minnesota scored 80, Washington just 17), have gone 7-28 ATS if their opponent was off a loss. Washington also falls into 153-69, 21-3 and 218-130 ATS systems of mine. Grab the points with the Redskins. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-19 | SMU v. Houston +14.5 | Top | 34-31 | Win | 100 | 43 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over SMU. Last week, we played on SMU as a 9-point favorite, and got the $$$ in a 45-21 blowout win over Temple, which entered the game with a 5-1 record. That was a huge win for the Mustangs, as it moved their record to 7-0, and dropped Temple to 5-2. But off that big win, we'll look for a letdown by SMU on the road on Thursday. Indeed, over the last 40 seasons, undefeated NCAA teams, with a record of 7-0 (or better), have cashed just 28% on the road following a win (and 14-point cover) over a once-beaten or undefeated team. Even worse for SMU: it's an awful 12-33 ATS off a double-digit conference win, including 0-11 ATS when priced from -6.5 to -20 points! Take Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-24-19 | Hurricanes -117 v. Blue Jackets | Top | 3-4 | Loss | -117 | 14 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over Columbus. The Blue Jackets went into PNC Arena 12 days ago, and upset the Hurricanes, 3-2. That was Carolina's first defeat of this season -- after opening with five straight wins. And the Hurricanes are currently 6-3 on the year, and rank 4th in the league in shots on goal differential (+5.22). Columbus is also off to a decent start, as it's 4-3-2 so far, including an upset win, 4-3, in overtime at Toronto, on Monday. But Columbus is a poor 1-6 (minus 9 games on the money line) at home off an overtime win. And it's 5-13 (minus 15 games on the money line) at home after allowing 3+ goals in each of its three previous games. Take the Hurricanes. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-19 | Nuggets +2 v. Blazers | Top | 108-100 | Win | 100 | 28 h 37 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Denver Nuggets over the Portland Trail Blazers. Certainly, this will be a tough game for the Nuggets to win. After all, Portland has won its last 18 home openers. But I'm still going to take Denver in an underdog role, as it no doubt would love to avenge its playoffs ouster by the Blazers last May. That Western Conference semi-finals series went 7 games, and the Nuggets lost Games 6 + 7 to fall to Portland. However, Denver falls into a super 81.08% revenge system of mine. Additionally, the Nuggets are a solid 28-16 ATS when playing with double-revenge, including 14-6 ATS on the road, and they're 13-4 ATS their last 17 as an underdog vs. a division rival. Meanwhile, Portland's a poor 4-9 ATS at home vs. foes playing with double-revenge. Finally, underdogs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their season opener, if they were playing a division foe, and were a .500 (or better) team the previous season. Take Denver. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-23-19 | Nationals v. Astros -170 | Top | 12-3 | Loss | -170 | 19 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals. A lot of baseball people scratched their heads when they heard the Nats were starting Max Scherzer in Game 1 opposite Gerrit Cole. It is generally thought that Stephen Strasburg is the Nats de facto #1 starter now after his Playoff performances vs. Milwaukee, Los Angeles and St. Louis (22 innings, 4 runs). But now that Scherzer has beaten Cole and the Astros last night, it will be RHP Strasburg to face Justin Verlander in Game 2 tonight, so Washington Nationals fans must be pleased. But Houston is in a similar situation. It's certainly not a bad deal for A.J. Hinch to be able to hand the ball to a two-time Cy Young award winner in the second game of a World Series after you've dropped the first one. And in this case, Verlander just might be the best option -- Cole included. The veteran RHP also has a ridiculous record of 34-8 with an ERA of 2.81 and WHIP of 1.05 in 50 inter-league starts covering just over 330 innings. And in two career starts vs. the Nationals, Verlander is a perfect 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and 1.14 WHIP in 14 innings. They may have lost Game 1 on Tuesday, but the Astros are still 23-10 in their last 33 post-season home games. And they're 78-25 (+30 games on the money line) when favored by -150 or more. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-22-19 | Nationals v. Astros -185 | Top | 5-4 | Loss | -185 | 42 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Washington Nationals. If the Astros win their second World Series in the last three years -- and if it's close -- they will likely look back on the Game 6 win over the Yankees in the LCS as the key. That's because the 'Stros won that game with a collection of relief pitchers which allowed them to save their best starter -- RHP Gerrit Cole -- for Game 1 at home tonight. And it means that Cole should be available to at least pitch out of the bullpen in a Game 7 if it comes down to that. The Nats' story so far is amazing, both for the franchise and its fans. A four-game sweep of the Cards in the NLCS is more than anyone could have hoped for, but even the Nats would have to admit that they're taking a huge step-up in this series. There are almost no weaknesses on the Houston roster and the Nats were just .500 (48-48) against winning teams in the regular season (and few of those winning teams were at the Astros' level). The Nats will go with RH Max Scherzer who has had a solid season, but one that pales in comparison to what Cole has done.  Cole is on one of the most amazing runs of any pitcher in recent history, going 19-0 with a 1.59 ERA and 0.81 WHIP in his last 25 starts, including the playoffs. The Astros have also won each of his last 16 starts. But it's not just this current year's streak which impresses me. In Cole's career (mostly with a mediocre Pittsburgh Pirates franchise), his teams have gone 78-24 (+32 games on the money line) when favored by -150 (or more). I won't step in front of this Gerrit Cole freight train. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-21-19 | Patriots v. Jets +10.5 | Top | 33-0 | Loss | -135 | 18 h 23 m | Show |
At 8:15 pm, our selection is on the New York Jets + the points over New England. Yesterday, we played on the Washington Redskins as a double-digit home underdog vs. San Francisco, and got the $$$$ in a 9-point loss. Here, the Jets have also been installed as a large home underdog -- currently ranging from +9.5 to +10.5, depending on one's sports book, as of this writing. We'll grab the points with the Flyboys, as home underdogs of more than 9 points have gone 83-47-2 ATS vs. foes off a home win, including 35-13-1 ATS if their opponent was also off back to back SU/ATS wins. Even better: the Jets enter this contest off an upset win over Dallas last week, 24-22, as a 7.5-point home underdog. And Monday Night home dogs of +2 (or more) points have gone 20-4 ATS off an upset win, including a perfect 6-0 SU/ATS since 2011! Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-21-19 | Avalanche v. Blues -134 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 12 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Colorado Avalanche. It took almost the entire off-season, but the Avalanche finally signed superstar RW Mikko Rantanen to a contract, thereby keeping the best line in the NHL intact for another season. If there was concern that Rantanen might start slow due to not having signed until the end of September, those fears seem to be put to rest now. The Avs are 7-0-1 coming into tonight, but they face arguably their toughest challenge of the season so far, having to play the Blues on the road. To say the city of St. Louis has not been kind to Colorado would be an egregious understatement as the Avalanche are 3-15 in the last 18 games here going back to 2011 (1-5 in the last six). After a 3-1 start in their first four games, the Blues have now lost four straight, but two of those were in overtime, or via a shootout. And in their last two -- also here at home -- they've out-shot their opponents by a total of 71-56. So there's no panic in St. Louis for the defending Cup Champions who are healthy, with plenty of games left to turn things around. The Avs beat the Lightning in Tampa, 6-2 in their last game, but they are just 7-11 (-5 goals on the money line) in their last 18 after a blowout victory by three or more goals. Meanwhile, St. Louis is 24-15 off back to back losses. Take the Blues. As always, good luck...Al McMordie.
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10-20-19 | Oilers v. Jets -126 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Winnipeg Jets over the Edmonton Oilers. The big question surrounding the Jets heading into this season is whether or not the window of opportunity for them to make the Stanley Cup Finals is closing (or has already closed).  Winnipeg lost in the First Round of the playoffs in six games to the Blues last season after reaching the conference finals against the Vegas Golden Knights the previous year.  The Jets have to replace three key veteran defensemen (Trouba, Myers, and Chiarot) but there is still plenty of fire-power on this team.  The extremely talented young front line of Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor, and Blake Wheeler could do enough damage to carry the Jets to their third straight post-season appearance.  The Jets have scored 543 goals in the past two seasons, third most in the NHL behind the Tampa Bay Lightning (609) and Toronto Maple Leafs (556). The goaltending situation is solid with Connor Hellebuyck returning after another stellar season and at just 26 years of age, there's no reason to think that he won't get better still. It's true Winnipeg has lost its last three games (by a combined score of 14-5). But Winnipeg is 22-8 at home after not scoring three or more goals in any of its three previous games. And the Jets have been pretty dominant in this series, winning five of the last six meetings going back to October of 2017. Meanwhile, the Oilers are 0-4 in their last four games as an underdog. Take the Jets. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-20-19 | Chargers v. Titans OVER 41 | Top | 20-23 | Win | 100 | 37 h 38 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Tennessee Titans/Los Angeles Chargers game. On the surface, this looks like it will be a very low-scoring game. The Chargers' last five games have averaged 36.8 ppg, while the Titans' last five games have averaged 10 points less, at 26.8 ppg. And each of those 10 games have gone 'under' the total. So, the knee-jerk reaction might be to look for another 'under' here. But such knee-jerk reactions are often wrong. Indeed, over the last 40 years, NFL teams have gone 'over' 65% of the time if one team played its last 5 (or more) games 'under' the total, and its opponent played its last 3 (or more) games 'under' the total, and the Over/Under line was 42 or less points. And the Titans have gone 57-30 'over' the total after scoring less than 14 points in their previous game, if the Over/Under line in their current game was 42 or less points. Take the Chargers and Titans 'over' the total. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-19 | Yankees v. Astros -128 | Top | 4-6 | Win | 100 | 3 h 29 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. In this series, we played on the Astros in Game 2 (win), and then played on the Yankees in Games 3 (lose) and 5 (win). The Yankees were able to win last night's game, 4-1, to stay alive in the 7-game series. But now that the ALCS has returned to Minute Maid Park, we'll have no problem taking Houston at home to close out New York. Indeed, the Astros have gone 64-22 (+18 games on the money line) here, at home, this season. Even better: they're 80-43 (+24 games on the money line) after scoring less than two runs in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Yankees are an ugly 5-20 (minus 14 games on the money line) their last 25 as road underdogs of +150 or less. Veteran RHP Brad Peacock will get the start for Houston, and his ERA this season vs. New York is 3.00 (2 runs, 6 IP). But most impressive is that he had 11 strikeouts against 0 walks. Chad Green will open the game for New York, but he struggled vs. Houston this season (10.13 ERA). Take the Astros. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-19 | Arizona State v. Utah -13 | Top | 3-21 | Win | 100 | 47 h 29 m | Show |
At 6 pm, our selection is on the Utah Utes minus the points over Arizona State. After being upset on the road by USC, 30-23, as a 3.5-point favorite, the Utes have righted their ship with back-to-back blowout wins over Washington State (38-13) and Oregon State (52-7). We played on the Utes last week in their 45-point win over the Beavers. And we'll come right back with them here, at home, vs. Arizona State, which upset Washington State last week. Indeed, the Utes fall into a great 'momentum' system of mine. What we want to do is play on any team which scored 87+ points, combined, in their two previous games, while giving up less than 24 points, combined, in those two games, and is now matched up against an opponent playing away from home off an upset win. That angle's cashed 77.1% over the past 40 seasons. The Utes currently have the nation's 2nd-ranked rush defense (2.4 yards per rush; 52.8 yards per game), and 8th-ranked scoring defense (13.1 ppg). I look for them to shut down Arizona State. Lay the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-19-19 | Canadiens v. Blues -150 | Top | 5-2 | Loss | -150 | 12 h 39 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Montreal Canadiens. Now that the Blues have won their first Cup in franchise history (50+ years), the question is: What will they do for an encore? Judging from their off-season moves, the answer is - more of the same. Not that the Blues had many -- if any -- weaknesses, but they made themselves better. St. Louis picked up an All Star defenseman in Justin Faulk (Carolina) and, although they gave up Joel Edmundson and some prospects to get him, the Blues are still ahead of the game on that one. They also avoided arbitration with talented G Jordan Binnington by signing him to a two-year, $8.8 Million contract, ensuring that he'll be happy in a Blues' uniform for at least another couple of seasons. The success of the Canadiens' season seemed to hinge on whether restricted FA Sebastian Aho would accept their massive offer. He did, but unfortunately the 'Canes matched it and Montreal lost out. With Aho, they're a playoff contender; without him, they're not. The Blues are 6-2 in the last eight meetings and the home team is 7-2 in the last nine. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-19 | Hurricanes -123 v. Ducks | Top | 2-4 | Loss | -123 | 21 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Carolina Hurricanes over the Anaheim Ducks. Coming off of an incredible run last Spring, the question facing the Hurricanes is simple: Can they do it again or was the second half of last season a fluke? Carolina not only broke a nine-year playoff drought, but they made it all the way to the Conference Finals, beating the Defending Champion Caps before sweeping the Islanders in the second round. In addition to managing to keep talented young Center Sabastian Aho, the 'Canes were also busy on the free agent market, signing forwards Erik Haula and Ryan Dzingel as well as adding talented D-man Jake Gardiner. Goaltending may be the only weakness on this team but the incredibly deep blue-line may be able to pick up the slack defensively. Having said that, #1 net-minder Petr Mrazek was pretty good last season and is off to an even better start this fall, and is still just 27 years old so could certainly improve from here. The road team is 7-2 in the last nine meetings of these two and the 'Canes are a spectacular 46-12 in their last 58 games as a favorite. Take Carolina. NHL Elite Info Winner! As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-19 | UNLV v. Fresno State -15 | Top | 27-56 | Win | 100 | 30 h 58 m | Show |
At 10 pm, our selection is on the Fresno State Bulldogs minus the points over UNLV. Last week, the Rebels pulled off a huge upset, when they went into Nashville, and defeated Vanderbilt, 34-10, as a 16-point underdog. But before one gets too excited about that victory, it also must be noted that Vandy is now 1-5 straight-up, and 0-6 ATS on the season. UNLV has to stay on the road for this game, and travel to Fresno for this Friday night contest. Once again, UNLV is a double-digit underdog. Unfortunately, conference underdogs priced from +3.5 to +18.5 points, off a non-conference win as an underdog of more than 14 points, are a horrid 0-14 SU/ATS since 1990! Even worse for UNLV: it generally doesn't put back-to-back good games together, as it's a wallet-busting 27-56 ATS off a point spread win. Meanwhile, Fresno's 26-10-1 ATS its last 37. Lay the points with the Bulldogs. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-18-19 | Astros v. Yankees +131 | Top | 1-4 | Win | 131 | 9 h 50 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the New York Yankees over the Houston Astros. After the victory by the Astros in Game 3 here, the Yankees are one loss away from elimination. They will turn to their southpaw James Paxton tonight in Game 4. Although he only lasted 2 1/3 innings in Game 2 of this series, Paxton didn't pitch that badly in Houston and should be very fresh tonight in this must-win situation. The Astros will hand the ball to RH Justin Verlander and, although his success in the regular season in his career is well documented, the veteran's post-season resume is less settled, especially when it comes to road games. For example, in his last road start -- Game 4 of the ALDS against the Rays -- Verlander lasted just 3 2/3 innings allowing four runs on seven hits with three walks and two homers allowed in a 4-1 loss. And Yankee Stadium could be a much tougher place for him tonight than Tropicana Field was 10 days ago, especially if Verlander gets into trouble early. Getting Paxton this start while they're still at home could be huge for the Yanks who are 6-0 in his last six starts in the Bronx. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-19 | Canucks v. Blues -169 | Top | 4-3 | Loss | -169 | 13 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St Louis Blues over Vancouver. The defending Stanley Cup champs lost a heartbreaker to the Islanders on Monday, as they gave up the tying goal with less than a minute left in the 3rd period, and then lost 73 seconds into overtime on a Devon Toews goal. It was the 2nd time in St. Louis' six games this season that it blew a 2-goal lead only to lose in overtime. The good news is that it's back home tonight to take on Vancouver. The Canucks did win their last game 5-1, but they're a poor 19-34 after scoring more than three goals in their previous game. Even better: St. Louis is a solid 13-3 off back to back defeats, and 27-17 (+8 games on the money line) at home vs. the Canucks. Take the Blues. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-17-19 | UL-Lafayette v. Arkansas State +7 | Top | 37-20 | Loss | -125 | 13 h 51 m | Show |
At 7:30 pm, our selection is on the Arkansas State Red Wolves + the points over Louisiana Lafayette. Arkansas State returns home tonight after playing its last two games on the road, while Lafayette comes into Jonesboro off a home game last week. That bodes well for the Red Wolves, as Sun Belt Conference home underdogs have cashed 65.3% off back to back road games, if they were off a SU/ATS loss. Additionally, La-Lafayette has covered just 30% over the last 19 seasons as favorites vs. Conference foes off upset losses, while Arkansas State has gone 42-29 ATS at home vs. Conference foes, including 10-0 straight-up and 9-1 ATS their last 10 with revenge. And the Red Wolves do, in fact, have revenge, as they lost 47-43 last season to the Cajuns. Finally, the Rajin' Cajuns fall into negative 84-162 and 40-111 ATS systems of mine after losing, 17-7, at home last week to Appalachian State. Take Arkansas State + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-16-19 | Sabres v. Ducks -123 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Ducks over the Buffalo Sabres. Could this be the year that a team from Buffalo breaks through and wins a pro sports championship? The Sabres are 5-0-1 and sitting atop their Division right now. The 2019 roster remains largely unchanged from last season with young star Jack Eichel leading a talented group that might put it all together this season. There was, however, a change behind the bench as Ralph Krueger takes over as head coach. It's just the second NHL stint for Krueger who led the Oilers for a brief time in 2012-2013 before being let go and returning to Europe. Speaking of new coaches, the Ducks have one as well. Dallas Eakins -- very successful in Anaheim's minor league system -- has taken over for Randy Carlyle who was left in charge of an injury-plagued team too long last season. The Ducks are 4-2 this season, and Goalie John Gibson continues to show that he's one of the best, as he's off to a great start with a .941 saves pct. and 1.82 GAA in his first five games. Buffalo does come into this game off a 4-0 home shutout of the Dallas Stars. Unfortunately, the Sabres are 4-18 on the road off a home game, and 2-13 on the road after scoring more than three goals in their previous game. Meanwhile, the Ducks are 5-0 in their last five home games, and 9-1 in their last 10 after a game in which they scored less than three goals. Take Anaheim. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-15-19 | Cardinals +148 v. Nationals | Top | 4-7 | Loss | -100 | 19 h 40 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals. With the Nats holding a commanding a 3-0 NLCS lead and the Cards completely unable to solve their opponents' pitching (only two runs scored in three games), you would think a series sweep would be a done deal. And, certainly, the historical stats bear that out. In Baseball history, Best-of-Seven series have been sweeps in 29 of 36 series where one team held a 3-games-to-none lead. This, by the way, is the primary reason for the inflation of the Nationals' odds for this game. Of course, the last two times this has happened (2016 Indians/Blue Jays; 2017 Dodgers/Cubs), the team down 3-0 actually won Game 4. Of course, the Nationals are now overwhelming favorites to advance to the World Series (and I hope they do, as I released them at 18-1 odds to win the World Series), but I don't think they'll win tonight. For one thing, Washington will start a left-hander (Patrick Corbin) for the first time in this series. And the Cards have done pretty well with an .810 OPS in eight games vs. southpaws this post-season (that's the second-best number of any club). Second is the fact that the visitors will start RHP Daniel Hudson. Although not garnering the notoriety of Flaherty, Wainwright, or Mikolas, the 24-year-old won 16 games in the regular season with a 3.35 ERA. And his only post-season start was a good one (NLDS Game 3 vs. the Braves). More importantly, during the regular season, Hudson was 1-1 vs. the Nats with a 2.08 ERA and 1.00 WHIP in two starts covering 13 innings. Finally, the Cards are 6-0 in their last six road games vs. left-handed starters. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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10-15-19 | Lightning -138 v. Canadiens | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Lightning over the Montreal Canadiens. Another season...another chance for the Lightning to show that they can win games after the month of April. Over the past decade or so, Tampa has become the poster child for under-achievement in the post-season in just about any professional sport. Last season however, they set the bar even higher than normal, posting one of the strongest regular seasons in NHL history before flaming out in the first round against the Blue Jackets in four straight games no less. I'm actually quite optimistic about Tampa Bay this season, and released them at 7-1 odds to win the Stanley Cup this season. Anyway, in an effort to bring in someone who knows what it's like to win a Cup (because he just won one), the Bolts signed Blues forward Patrick Maroon to a one-year contract. They also shored up their defense by signing Kevin Shattenkirk to a one-year deal. Clearly, a team that finished 2018-19 with a record 128 points in the regular season shouldn't have to do more than just "tweak" the roster, but keep its powerful core of players intact, which is exactly what the Lightning have done. The Lightning are 23-6 after allowing more than three goals in their previous game. And they're 5-1 in the last six meetings with the Canadiens coming into tonight. Take Tampa Bay. NHL High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-14-19 | Oilers v. Blackhawks -130 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 18 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Blackhawks over the Edmonton Oilers. The Blackhawks have yet to win a game this season while the Oilers have yet to lose -- off to their first 5-0-0 start since 1985-1986. For the 'Hawks, they needed to improve their defense in the off-season as their 3.55 GAA last season was second-worst in the league. Mission accomplished -- at least from a personnel perspective -- as Chicago added blue-liners Calvin de Haan (Canes) and Olli Maatta (Pens) via the trade route. They also provided long-time #1 Goalie Corey Crawford with some help, signing veteran Robin Lehner as a back-up but one that could see as many minutes as Crawford depending on how things go. It will be Crawford to start at home this evening and the 34-year-old has had success against the Oilers in his career, going 9-7 with a 2.53 GAA in 18 appearances against them. One key for Crawford -- and perhaps the reason he's starting tonight -- is that he was much better at home last season (8-6 with a 2.54 GAA and .921 Sv Pct) than he was on the road (6-12; 3.32; .896). Take the Blackhawks. NHL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-19 | Yankees v. Astros -152 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the New York Yankees. The Yankees surprised the Astros with an upset, shutout victory on the road in Game 1 here at Minute Maid Park. And while it's never a good feeling going down 1-0 in a series in which you're heavily favored, the 'Stros have to be feeling pretty good about the fact that they will come back in Game 2 with a future Hall-of-Famer taking the mound. RHP Justin Verlander won 20+ games for just the second time in his career this season. And he led the league with 223 strikeouts (and became just the 18th pitcher in MLB history to reach 3000 Ks for his career). You could argue that Gerrit Cole has been a slightly better performer this season, but Verlander is still probably the one guy you'd want on the hill in this situation. Despite their surprising win last night, the Yankees are just 4-10 in the last 14 meetings in Houston, and 3-12 in their last 15 American League Championship Series road games. Meanwhile, the Astros are 5-1 in Verlander's last six starts vs. the Yanks and 21-5 in their last 26 home games vs. a LH starter (Paxton goes for NY). Take Houston. AL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-13-19 | Redskins v. Dolphins OVER 41.5 | Top | 17-16 | Loss | -110 | 23 h 5 m | Show |
At 1 pm, our selection is on the 'over' in the Washington/Miami game. These two teams have combined to go 0-9 this season, and are arguably the two worst teams in football. It's true that each team lacks skilled offensive players, which would greatly explain why Miami has yet to score two touchdowns in a game, and why Washington (after QB Case Keenum's injury) has been unable to score twice in either of its two previous games. Of course, it must also be noted that both teams have played strong defenses this season. Washington has faced New England, Chicago, Dallas and Philly, while Miami has also gone up New England and Dallas, and played the Chargers and Baltimore, as well. Thus, today's game is a significant departure for each team, as far as the defense it will face (Washington gives up 30.2 ppg; Miami surrenders 40.7 ppg). I expect both offenses to move the ball, and for this game to be relatively high-scoring. Indeed, since 1986, NFL match-ups (at Game 3 forward) between two teams whose defenses have each given up more than 30 points per game have gone 'over' the total 64.2% of the time. Take the 'over.' NFL Non-Conference Total of the Month! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals +136 | Top | 3-1 | Loss | -100 | 14 h 43 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Cardinals over the Washington Nationals. Both of these teams had victorious performances on the road in their respective Game 5s on Wednesday. Unfortunately, each team was forced to use its best pitcher in its win, so neither team will have its #1 starter on the mound for the first two games of this series. Last night, the Nationals got off to a great start behind the no-hit bid of veteran Anibal Sanchez. We had the 'under' last night, so Washington's 2-0 triumph was welcomed by us. But for this game, we will go with St. Louis, and its RHP Adam Wainwright. He last pitched in Game 3 of the NLDS and he seemed to channel a younger version of himself in that performance. He threw 7 2/3 brilliant innings, and allowed just four hits with eight strikeouts and two walks. Unfortunately, the Cards' offense did little, and closer Carlos Martinez imploded, so Wainwright's effort was for naught in that one. Here, the Cardinals have been installed as a home underdog vs. Max Scherzer. However, St. Louis is 13-7 (+7.4 games on the money line) as a home underdog this season. And Wainwright is 10-4 with a 3.10 ERA in 17 career appearances (15 starts) covering 98 2/3 innings vs. the Nats. Take the Cards. MLB Elite Info Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-12-19 | Cincinnati v. Houston +7.5 | Top | 38-23 | Loss | -115 | 37 h 13 m | Show |
At 3:30 pm, our selection is on the Houston Cougars + the points over Cincinnati. We played on the Bearcats last week in their 27-24 upset win over Central Florida. Although we certainly won't bemoan the result, it's also true that Cincinnati greatly benefited from the four Central Florida turnovers, as Cincy was outgained by 82 yards. The Bearcats now have to travel to Houston, and have been installed as a road favorite. Houston also comes into this game off a win, 46-25, at North Texas. And the Cougars are 30-11 ATS at home off a road win, including 7-0 ATS their last seven. More ammunition for taking the points with the home underdog: Houston's won 25 of its last 28 games at TDECU Stadium. And two of its three defeats were by just 3 and 4 points. Finally, American Athletic home underdogs, priced from +4 to +12.5 points, have gone 20-5 ATS off a win. Take the Cougars. AAC Game of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-11-19 | Nationals v. Cardinals UNDER 8 | Top | 2-0 | Win | 100 | 18 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals 'under' the total.  At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals and St. Louis Cardinals 'under' the total. The Nats won their first NLDS in dramatic fashion, taking two of three victories on the road. So they shouldn't mind starting this series in St. Louis, especially knowing that they finished the season with a better record than the Cards. Having used all of their "Big 3" pitchers (Strasburg, Scherzer, Corbin) in some capacity over the last two games, the Nats will turn to veteran RH Anibal Sanchez. The 35-year-old very quietly had a solid season for DC (11-8; 3.85 ERA in 30 starts) as well as a great performance in his Game 2 start of the NLDS (5 IP; 1 ER; 4 H; 9K; 2 BB). And although the sample size is small, Sanchez seems to like pitching at Busch Stadium. In three starts here, Sanchez is 1-0 with a very nice 2.60 ERA. The Cards will go with RH Miles Mikolas and the under is 5-0-1 in Mikolas' last six home starts vs. teams with a winning record, and 9-1-2 in his last 12 overall vs. winning teams. Take the 'under.' MLB High Roller Total. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-19 | Giants +18 v. Patriots | Top | 14-35 | Loss | -129 | 21 h 50 m | Show |
At 8:20 pm, our selection is on the New York Giants + the points over New England. Last week, the defending Super Bowl champion Patriots blew out Washington, 33-7. And that moved New England to 5-0 on the season. On Thursday night, they will face the injury-riddled Giants, and have been installed as a favorite of more than two touchdowns. It's always dangerous to lay this many points in the NFL, as double-digit favorites fail to cover the spread more often than not. And we will happily take New York with the points in this game. Indeed, defending Super Bowl champs have only covered 29% over the past 40 seasons if they were off a 20-point (or greater) road win, and matched up against an opponent off a loss. And New England's 1-6 ATS when laying more than 17 points. None of this bodes well for New England here. Nor does the fact that the Giants are an awesome 25-9 ATS their last 34 when getting more than 9 points, including a perfect 11-0 ATS since December 18, 2004! Finally, the Giants fall into 71-34, 231-140 and 76-32 ATS systems of mine based on the two teams' statistical profiles. Take New York. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-19 | Syracuse v. NC State -4.5 | Top | 10-16 | Win | 100 | 25 h 10 m | Show |
At 8 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the NC State Wolfpack minus the points over Syracuse. The Wolfpack come into this game off an 18-point blowout loss at Florida State twelve days ago. And they've failed to cover the point spread in each of their last three games. But we will take NC State here, at home, as it falls into a 96-33 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses. Additionally, the Wolfpack are a perfect 10-0-1 ATS at home off a 14-point (or worse) defeat when matched up against a .500 (or better) conference foe off a home win. Finally, ACC teams on a 3-game (or worse) point spread losing streak are 59-37 ATS in home conference games, if their opponent isn't also on a 3-game ATS losing streak, including a perfect 7-0 ATS when playing with a week of rest. Take NC State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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10-10-19 | Rays v. Astros -248 | Top | 1-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 43 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Tampa Bay Rays. Last night, the wild card Nationals knocked out the #1-seeded Dodgers. Will lightning strike twice today? The surprising Rays have taken the team with the best record in baseball to a fifth game tonight, so Houston is trying to avoid the same fate which befell the Braves and Dodgers yesterday. That isn't likely to happen tonight with RH Gerrit Cole taking the mound for the 'Stros. Cole is the favorite for the AL Cy Young with a 20-5 record and league-leading 2.50 ERA and 326 strikeouts. None of that would matter to him, however, if he can't nail down the win tonight to advance Houston to its third straight LCS. The Rays may have tied this series up with two home victories, but they are 0-5 in their last five Division Series road games. Even worse: the Astros are 23-2 (+18 games on the money line) in Cole's home starts as a favorite of -200 or more. And they're 47-20 (+19 games on the money line) after not scoring 2+ runs in their previous game. Finally, Tyler Glasnow's teams are a money-burning 1-5 in his career as an underdog of +150 or more. Take Houston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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