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Date | Match Up | Rating | Score | Result | Profit | Lead Time | Analysis |
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04-27-18 | Mets -150 v. Padres | Top | 5-1 | Win | 100 | 20 h 28 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the San Diego Padres. When Mets ace Noah Syndergaard went down with an injury last season, the burden fell squarely on the shoulders of RHP Jacob deGrom. And deGrom responded with 15 wins, a 3.53 ERA and 239 strikeouts for a K-rate of 10.7 and K:BB ratio of 4.05. Those numbers were good enough for deGrom to finish in the top-10 in Cy Young voting. Now that Syndergaard is back -- and with what would seem to be less pressure on him -- deGrom has stepped his game even further. So far over his first five starts, all of those numbers -- with the obvious exception of wins -- is better than it was last season and deGrom has propelled himself into one of the top three or four starters in the NL. He gets a great match-up tonight for start number six, going to the mound at Petco Park where he is 2-1 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.86 WHIP in three starts. The Pads will go with LHP Clayton Richard for his sixth start of the season and San Diego is 1-5 in his last six starts vs. the Mets. Take New York. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-27-18 | A's v. Astros -158 | Top | 8-1 | Loss | -158 | 18 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Oakland Athletics. About a week ago, Oakland's Sean Manaea threw MLB's first no-hitter of 2018. And he did against one of the two best offenses in the AL. His reward? His next start will be facing the other "best offense" in the Astros. And while the crafty LH accomplished his no-no in front of his home fans in Oakland, tonight Manaea will travel to Houston. Not to throw too much rain on Mr. Manaea's AL player of the week parade, but it should also be noted that the Red Sox -- for all of their offense this season -- are not hitting a lick against southpaws, batting just .209 with a meager .563 OPS so far against them. That's not the case for the 'Stros, who are hitting almost 50 points higher in that regard (.255). And speaking of southpaws, the A's will have to face one of the league's best tonight in Dallas Keuchel. Keuchel is off to a solid start with a 3.10 ERA in his first five outings and in his only home start he allowed just one ER in five innings. The Stros are 10-3 in Keuchel's last 13 starts vs. the A's who are 7-19 in the last 26 in Houston. Take the Astros. |
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04-27-18 | Cavs v. Pacers UNDER 204.5 | Top | 87-121 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 53 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Pacers/Cavaliers game. All five games of this playoff series have gone 'under' the total. And, dating back to the regular season, these two teams have gone 7-0-1 'under' in their last eight meetings. I certainly won't buck this trend. Take Game 6 to go 'under' the total. |
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04-27-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 214.5 | Top | 102-92 | Win | 100 | 19 h 54 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Washington/Toronto game. This series started out as a very high-scoring one. The first three games averaged 231.3 ppg. But the last two games have seen a huge shift in the offensive efficiency, and have averaged just 205 ppg. I look for this trend to continue in Game 6. Take the 'under.' |
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04-27-18 | Braves v. Phillies -159 | Top | 3-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 24 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over Atlanta. The Braves have won four of the first six meetings this season vs. Philly. And two of those meetings featured this exact pitching match-up. Julio Teheran got the better of Aaron Nola in both of those games, but I look for Nola to turn the tables on his mound opponent tonight. All six of those games were in Atlanta, but tonight's game is in Philly. And Nola's home ERA this season is 1.80 this season, and he's given up just five earned runs in 26 innings (1.73 ERA) vs. Atlanta in front of his home faithful. Take Philly. |
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04-26-18 | Brewers v. Cubs -155 | Top | 0-1 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Milwaukee Brewers. In the Cubs' last 11 games, their offense has either been really, really good, or really, really anemic. In six of those, Chicago's line-up has scored at least eight runs. In the other five however, they have plated three or fewer. Last night was one of the latter examples as Trevor Bauer and the rest of the Indians' pitchers stymied Chicago and won the game, 4-1. So the Cubs return home for a four-game set against the Brewers hoping that their hitting returns as well. RHP Kyle Hendricks will get his fifth start of the season tonight for the Cubs and he's regressed a bit this season posting a 1-1 record, 4.09 ERA and 1.36 WHIP in 22 innings so far. Perhaps a start against the Brewers will give Hendricks' season a jump start. His 16 starts and six career victories over the Crew are the most he's tallied against any team. And he has a 3.01 ERA and 1.01 WHIP in 92 2/3 innings against them as well. The Cubs are 11-4 in their last 15 during game one of a series. Take Chicago. NL Central Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics +5 v. Bucks | Top | 86-97 | Loss | -109 | 42 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, on Thursday, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Milwaukee. The Celtics won the pivotal Game 5 on Tuesday to take a 3-2 series lead. In the Playoffs, NBA road teams up 3 games to 2 have cashed a whopping 67% in the 1st round. Take Boston + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-26-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 200 | Top | 86-97 | Win | 100 | 42 h 34 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Celtics and Bucks Game 6 to go 'under' the total. These two teams have played a very competitive series, as it was tied at 2 games apiece before Boston won Game 5. In the NBA playoffs, competitive series have gone 'under' 70-49 in Game 6 (that were tied at 2 games apiece). The 'under' also falls into a 72-33 Totals system of mine. Take the 'under.' 1st Round Total of the Year. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-18 | Wolves +12 v. Rockets | Top | 104-122 | Loss | -105 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Houston. It's treacherous to lay more than 10 points in a Playoff game, and especially when the favored team is coming off a win in its previous playoff game vs. its opponent. Since 1991, our double-digit favorites in this situation have covered just 29 of 77 games. Take Minnesota + the points. |
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04-25-18 | Jazz v. Thunder -3.5 | Top | 99-107 | Win | 100 | 19 h 13 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Utah. We played on Utah in Game 4 of this series, and were rewarded with a double-digit blowout win. But we will switch gears, and lay the points with OKC in this "do-or-die" Game 5. Indeed, home favorites down three-games-to-one in a series have covered 61.2% since 1991 off back to back losses. Lay the points with the Thunder. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -162 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 100 | 17 h 16 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Bruins apparently like to leave things to the last minute. They played the last regular season game in the NHL on the final Sunday (the only game that day) with a chance to overtake Tampa for the top spot in the East (they didn't do it). And now they will play the final game -- and the only game seven -- of the first round of the playoffs. Toronto figured to be a tough challenge for Boston, but if the Bruins can get their offense going like they did in games one and two here at TD Garden, then they should be able to advance against to play the Lightning. The Bruins out-played and out-shot the Leafs in game six in Toronto, but simply couldn't get the puck to go in the net and lost a tough one 3-1 (with the last goal being an empty-netter). In a game seven, you have to go with the big-time post-season performers, and no one fits that bill more than Bruins goalie Tuukka Rask. Rask has a 33-26 career playoff record and a .927 post-season save percentage. The Bruins are 13-2 at home off a loss, and 7-3 off back to back losses. Take Boston. NHL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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04-25-18 | #Tigers v. #Pirates -196 | Top | 3-8 | Win | 100 | 21 h 31 m | Show |
04-25-18 | Pacers +6.5 v. Cavs | Top | 95-98 | Win | 100 | 17 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Indiana Pacers + the points over Cleveland. The Pacers have won two of the four games in this series, but have outplayed Cleveland, overall. In the four games, Indiana has outscored the Cavs, 387-374, and has covered three of the four games. The Pacers are 54-28-4 ATS off a Playoff defeat, including 21-6-3 ATS as a road underdog of +2 or more points. Meanwhile, Cleveland is 20-46-1 ATS as a favorite this season. Take the Pacers + the points. |
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04-25-18 | Wizards v. Raptors -7 | Top | 98-108 | Win | 100 | 17 h 42 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over the Washington Wizards. Toronto dropped both games in our nation's capital, and this series is now level at 2 games apiece. I look for the #1-seeded Raptors to re-assert themselves here, at home, as top seeds have cashed 64 percent in the Playoffs since 1991 when favored (or PK) off back to back losses by 5+ points. Lay it! Eastern Conf. Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-18 | Rays v. Orioles -107 | Top | 8-4 | Loss | -107 | 8 h 25 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Tampa Bay Rays. Things haven't gone as planned for the Orioles' off-season free-agent pitching acquisition, RH Alex Cobb. Cobb stayed down in extended Spring training before making his Baltimore debut on April 14. The way things have gone for him in his two starts however, perhaps he should have stayed down south a bit longer. Cobb's numbers through his first two starts are butt-ugly -- an 0-2 record with a 15.43 ERA and 3.14 WHIP. But there are two things about tonight's start that make you think he might finally get things going. First, this will be his Orioles home debut as both of his first two starts were on the road (and both were in very less-than-desirable weather conditions). Second, he will be facing his old team -- the Rays -- for the first time. If anyone on the O's should know these hitters, it's Cobb. But even if he pitches well, the O's hitters have to get going for him, something they've not always been able to do this season. They could get a boost from the possible return of OF Trey Mancini from his knee injury. Take the O's. AL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-18 | Tigers v. Pirates -191 | Top | 13-10 | Loss | -191 | 5 h 26 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, in Game 1 of the Double Header, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Detroit Tigers. These two were rained out on Tuesday night, so they will play a day-night double header today beginning with this afternoon affair. Pittsburgh's Jameson Taillon is no doubt thrilled to be getting the start in the first game when you consider his record in daytime starts. The veteran RHP is a ridiculous 8-1 with a 2.59 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 13 career daytime starts (vs. 7-11; 4.42 at night). RHP Jordan Zimmermann will go for the Tigers. Zimmermann's struggles continue since he came over to the AL as he has a 7.71 ERA and 1.59 WHIP through his first four starts of 2018. These two teams started the season off with three games in Detroit that were all won by Pittsburgh. This series is in an NL park, so Detroit doesn't get the benefit of the DH. The Tigers are 5-18 in their last 23 road games vs. a team with a winning home record and 2-8 in their last 10 inter-league road games vs. teams with a RH starter.. Take the Pirates. Mound Mismatch Massacre. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-25-18 | Nationals -152 v. Giants | Top | 15-2 | Win | 100 | 5 h 43 m | Show |
At 3:45 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the San Francisco Giants. Last season, Max Scherzer won the Cy Young award for the second straight season and third time in his career. And the way he's going in 2018, it could be three in a row. Scherzer is 4-1 with a 1.36 ERA in five starts and last time out -- Friday against the Dodgers in L.A. -- all he did was out-pitch Clayton Kershaw. He goes for victory number five today in one of his favorite parks. In four starts here at AT&T covering 23 innings, Scherzer has a 1.96 ERA and 37 Ks with only 10 BBs. He's only 1-1 in those four starts, but the Nats have won each of his last three vs. the Giants, including the last two here. Giants RH Jeff Samardzija had a late start to the season due to a pectoral muscle injury coming out of Spring training. He threw five shutout innings in his debut but tonight could be a different story against a team that's almost always given him trouble. Samardzija's teams (the Giants and Cubs) haven't beaten the Nats in his last five starts going back to 2013. Heading into today's game, the Nats are 6-3 in the last nine meetings. Take DC. MLB Road Warrior. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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04-24-18 | Spurs v. Warriors -11 | Top | 91-99 | Loss | -105 | 20 h 34 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over San Antonio. The Warriors had won seven straight Playoff games over the past two seasons vs. San Antonio. So, perhaps, it was no surprise that they didn't bring their best game on Sunday in San Antone. But off that blowout loss, I expect the Warriors to be more focused tonight. Indeed, Golden State is 75-37-1 ATS over the past 7+ years off a loss when playing a foe off a win, including 15-7 ATS in the Playoffs. Golden State also falls into 86-37 and 126-65 ATS systems of mine which play on certain teams off playoff defeats. Lay the points with the Warriors. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-24-18 | Bucks v. Celtics UNDER 205 | Top | 87-92 | Win | 100 | 16 h 7 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics and the Milwaukee Bucks 'under' the total. This series has been ultra-competitive, as the two teams are tied at 2 games apiece heading into this pivotal game 5. Typically, such games are low-scoring affairs. Indeed, when teams are tied at 1, 2 or 3 games apiece, and the game is also competitively-priced with a point spread of 5 points or less, the 'under' is 130-94-1 since 1990. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-18 | Thunder v. Jazz -5 | Top | 96-113 | Win | 100 | 19 h 24 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Oklahoma City. The Jazz gained control of this series with a 13-point win in Game 3 to take a 2-1 series lead. The Jazz are now 27-5 straight-up, and 21-11 ATS in their last 32 games when playing with rest, including 20-5 ATS when not laying more than 10 points! And they're a fantastic 54-33-2 ATS as a home favorite in the Playoffs, including 36-4 straight-up and 28-11-1 ATS when priced from -4.5 to -7.5 points. The Jazz also fall into a Playoff system of mine which is 76-47 ATS which plays on certain home teams off Playoff wins. Take Utah. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-18 | Padres v. Rockies -160 | Top | 13-5 | Loss | -160 | 17 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:40 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Rockies over the San Diego Padres. Even if you're not a fan of the Rockies, it's hard not to root for RHP Chad Bettis. Coming into the league in 2013, Bettis had a rough time in his first two seasons -- just like so many Colorado hurlers -- having to pitch all his home games in Denver. After a solid 2015 in which he went 8-6 with a 4.23 ERA, Bettis broke out with 14 wins in 2016 and looked like he was set for even better things in 2017. But after the 2016 season, Bettis learned he had testicular cancer and underwent treatment. He came back later that season and now he's 100% and looking better than ever on the mound. Bettis is 3-0 with a 1.44 ERA in his first four starts and looks to continue that success tonight at home against the Padres. It's only his second start of 2018 at Coors Field, but he was effective in his first one, allowing just one run on four hits in 5 2/3 innings against the Braves on April 7. And the Rockies are 16-4 his last 20 home starts. Also, Bettis has had success pitching against the Pads, going 4-2 with a 2.96 ERA in 12 games (nine starts covering 51 2/3 innings) vs. them in his career. One of those starts was earlier this season, in San Diego -- also against his mound opponent tonight, Bryan Mitchell -- and the Rockies bombed Mitchell for five runs in five innings. Mitchell's teams (Yankees, Padres) have won just one of his last nine starts. Take Colorado. Mound Mismatch Massacre. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-23-18 | Bruins -117 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 1-3 | Loss | -117 | 16 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Toronto Maple Leafs. Last season it was the top-seeded Washington Capitals getting all they could bargain for in the first round against the Maple Leafs. This year, it's a very similar scenario, except it's the Bruins who are wishing the pesky Leafs would just go away already. But Toronto is very much alive in this first round series, and they get a Game 6 at home tonight just like they did a year ago against Washington. And just like a year ago, the Bruins should be able to close out the series on the road. Boston was a tough-luck loser at home in game five, out-shooting the Leafs by a whopping 45-21 but falling by 4-3 to send this series back here to Toronto. But the Bruins can feel good about the fact that the road team has won the last two games of this series and the Leafs are 0-4 in their last four games following a victory. The Bruins will look to duplicate the delayed success of the Penguins and Predators, who each lost a series-clinching Game 5 at home before taking their respective series in a road Game 6 on Sunday. The Bruins are also 23-10 this season off a loss. Take Boston. High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. Â Â Â Â |
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04-22-18 | Predators -170 v. Avalanche | Top | 5-0 | Win | 100 | 13 h 54 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Colorado Avalanche. The Predators can wrap things up tonight in Colorado against the Avalanche and although they're not at home, they would prefer to end things here in Denver. The Winnipeg Jets have already moved on against the Wild and the last thing the Preds want is to have to go to a game seven while their next opponents are resting and preparing for them. The Avs pulled off one of the biggest upsets of the NHL post-season so far Friday in Nashville, beating the Predators, 2-1 as more than a 3-1 underdog. And they did it without their #1 or #2 goalie. With both Jonathan Bernier and Semyon Varlamov out with injuries, the Avs turned to Andrew Hammond. They will need to rely on the journeyman netminder again tonight. Don't be surprised if Colorado has a letdown at home in game six as this is a place where Nashville has had a lot of success recently. In the last eight meetings of these two here at Pepsi Center, the Predators are 7-1 and they are 14-3 in the last 17 meetings overall. Take the Preds. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-18 | Raptors -2 v. Wizards | Top | 98-106 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Washington. The #1-seeded Raptors played a rare bad game on Friday, as they lost 122-103 in Game 3. The good news for fans North of the Border is that .615 (or better) teams have cashed 67% in the Playoffs since 1991 off double-digit losses when they've led the series 2-games-to-1, against .540 (or worse) opponents. Take Toronto. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 219 | Top | 98-106 | Win | 100 | 12 h 50 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto/Washington game 'under' the total. The Raptors are up 2-games-to-1 in this series after dropping Game 3 by 19 points. I expect the Raptors to play much better defense this evening, and look for a lower-scoring game. Indeed, over the last 25 seasons, Game 4s have gone 'under' the total 64% when the higher-seeded team was blown out by double-digits in Game 3 (after winning Games 1 + 2), and the O/U line was greater than 190 points. Take the 'under.' |
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04-22-18 | Red Sox -134 v. A's | Top | 1-4 | Loss | -134 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
At 4:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Red Sox over the Oakland Athletics. The first no-hitter of the 2018 season came from the unlikely arm of the Oakland Athletics' Sean Manaea here last night. And the fact that it came against the best offense in baseball -- and opposite ace Chris Sale -- makes the accomplishment all the more amazing. So the Red Sox hitting took a rare night off on Saturday, but don't expect this lineup to remain dormant for two days in a row. This afternoon it will be David Price taking his comeback tour to the Coliseum as the southpaw looks to continue his successful campaign. Price struggled through an injury-riddled 2017 but looks rejuvenated -- if still a little rusty -- so far this season, going 2-1 with a 2.25 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in his first four starts covering 20 innings. Price has only pitched at the Coliseum on seven previous occasions, but the results are very good as he's 3-2 with a 3.02 ERA in just under 48 innings here. RHP Daniel Mengden gets the start for the A's who are 4-10 in his last 14 home starts. Take Boston. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-18 | Celtics +4.5 v. Bucks | Top | 102-104 | Win | 100 | 7 h 52 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Celtics + the points over Milwaukee. The Bucks blew out Boston, 116-92, on Friday. But we'll fade the Bucks today, as Boston is a super 57-31-2 ATS its last 90 road games, including 12-3-1 its last 16 off a loss by 7+ points. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is a horrid 18-53-2 ATS as a home favorite when it's owned a winning record, including 6-23 ATS when playing a revenge-minded opponent. Boston also falls into a 21-0 ATS Playoffs system of mine which plays on certain teams off blowout losses. Take the Celtics. NBA Underdog of the Month. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-22-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 205 | Top | 102-104 | Loss | -115 | 7 h 51 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Boston/Milwaukee game. The Celtics are 13-4 'under' the total in their last 17 road playoff games, while the Bucks have gone 'over' the total in just two of their last 10 home playoff games. And the 'under' also falls into a Totals system of mine which is 93-54 since 1991. Take the 'under.' |
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04-21-18 | Thunder +4.5 v. Jazz | Top | 102-115 | Loss | -109 | 16 h 18 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder + the points over Utah. The Thunder fell at home in Game 2, 102-95. I look for OKC to bounce back on this Saturday, as teams off an upset home loss in the playoffs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their next game (and 26-13 ATS the last 5+ years), provided they weren't favored by 2+ points. Here, of course, OKC is an underdog. Take the Thunder + the points. Western Conf. Game of the Week. Good luck, as always ... Al McMordie. |
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04-21-18 | 76ers v. Heat +3.5 | Top | 106-102 | Loss | -105 | 9 h 48 m | Show |
At 2:35 pm, our selection is on the Miami Heat + the points over Philadelphia. The Sixers took a 2-1 lead in this series with a 20-point blowout of Miami in Game 3. Unfortunately for Philly, road teams are a dismal 35% ATS since 1991 in Game 4 of a series, off a double-digit win, if they lead the series 2 games to 1. Take the Heat + the points. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-18 | Celtics v. Bucks -6 | Top | 92-116 | Win | 100 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over Boston. The Bucks have their backs against the wall, as they face a 2-game deficit going into this Game 3. We'll lay the points with Milwaukee, as winning teams, off back to back road losses, down two games in a Playoff series, are 115-90 ATS at home. |
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04-20-18 | Celtics v. Bucks UNDER 203.5 | Top | 92-116 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 3 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the Milwaukee/Boston game. These two teams sailed 'over' the total by wide margins in Games 1 and 2. Game 1 generated 220 points (against an O/U line of 199.5), while Game 2 produced 226 points (against a line of 200). I look for a much lower scoring game tonight, as teams generally go 'under' the total when they've gone over by 20+ points in each of their previous two meetings in a season, when the O/U line is more than 194 points. Also, Boston's gone 'under' in 13 of 16 road playoff games, while Milwaukee's last five home playoff games have gone 'under' (and Milwaukee's 7-1-1 'under' at home its last nine playoff games). Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-20-18 | Raptors v. Wizards UNDER 218 | Top | 103-122 | Loss | -105 | 18 h 32 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Raptors and Wizards 'under' the total. The Raptors went 'over' the total in both home playoff games vs. Washington. And that's been par for the course for the Raptors, at home in the post-season, as they've gone 'over' in 15 of 23 games. On the road, though, it's been a different story, as the Raptors have only gone 'over' in six of their last 18 road games. Just 16 of the last 42 meetings between these two teams have gone 'over,' and just 44 of 118 matchups of #8 seeds playing at home vs. #1 seeds have gone 'over.' Take the UNDER. |
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04-19-18 | Giants v. Diamondbacks -170 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Arizona Diamondbacks over the San Francisco Giants. When you look at Arizona ace RHP Zack Greinke's ERA this season, you'll see a rather unsightly 5.29 number (in three starts). But look at the rest of his numbers, and you'll also see an amazing 21 strikeouts and only one walk, indicating that there's probably nothing wrong with the 34-year-old former Cy Young winner Greinke is probably going to be fine and that 5.29 ERA will come down over time and the victories will start coming as well. Here's a great chance to improve on his numbers as the Giants come to town for a weekend series. The D-Backs have won Greinke's last three starts vs. the Giants, including an eight-inning, two-hit gem the last time he faced them back on 9/17. The Giants will go with LHP Ty Blach in his fifth start of the season. Blach's strikeouts-to-walks numbers are pretty much the opposite of Greinke's. In 20 1/3 innings, Blach has punched out just nine batters and he has issued the same number of walks. The Giants are 1-8 in Blach's last nine start starts going back to last August. And Greinke's teams are 76-19 (+42 games on the money line) at home in his starts. Take the D-Backs. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-19-18 | Warriors v. Spurs UNDER 206.5 | Top | 110-97 | Loss | -110 | 19 h 46 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, our selection is on the 'under' in the San Antonio/Golden State game. The San Antonio Spurs have a severe home/road bias this season. At home, the Spurs are 33-8 straight-up and 25-14-2 ATS. And they've won their last 11 home games in a row (9-2 ATS; 8-3 'under' the total). But on the road, San Antone is a miserable 14-29 SU and 17-25-1 ATS, including 0-10 SU its last seven (and 1-14 SU its last 15). A key reason for this is that San Antonio's defense has not traveled with it on the road, of late, but is ever-present at home. Indeed, since the All-Star break, the Spurs' defensive rating at home was 2nd in the NBA, while it was in the bottom 10 on the road. I look for the Spurs to once again play great defense in front of their home faithful tonight. Take the 'under.' Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-19-18 | Bruins -110 v. Maple Leafs | Top | 3-1 | Win | 100 | 16 h 22 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Toronto Maple Leafs. The Leafs won game three at home as they pretty much had to do in order to save this series. But were it not for the play of goalie Frederik Andersen -- who pretty much stood on his head Monday night -- Toronto would be down 3-0 and essentially done. The Bruins put a barrage on the Toronto net in game three, out-shooting the Leafs 42-30. A similar onslaught tonight will likely result in these two teams returning to Boston with the Bruins up 3-1. One of the Leafs' biggest challenges will be keeping Boston in check without their #1 shutdown Center, Nazem Kadri, who has been suspended three games -- rightfully so -- for an illegal hit on the Bruins' Tommy Wengel last Thursday. Kadri won't be eligible to return until game five. Boston could get a big boost tonight from the return of Defenseman Matt Grzelcyk, who missed Monday's game with a lower body injury. There is an extra day between games three and four, so that's good news for the visitors, who are 12-2 in their last 14 when playing on two days of rest. Take Boston. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-18 | Predators -165 v. Avalanche | Top | 3-2 | Win | 100 | 20 h 27 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Colorado Avalanche. The Avs' victory over the Predators in Game 3 of their quarterfinal series was the first loss for Nashville in four games. That streak included season-ending wins over the Capitals and Blue Jackets in addition to wins in the first two games of this series. No doubt the Preds would love to win tonight and then finish things off in Game 5 back at Bridgestone Arena. For the third straight game, the Avs got on the board first, with a pair of goals in the opening stanza, but unlike Games 1 and 2, they didn't let the Predators back into it. In fact, they extended the lead to 4-0 before Nashville goalie Pekka Rinne was replaced after facing just 15 shots. Rinne will be back tonight and the Preds should provide more protection in front of him while being more aggressive early on. They can't keep giving up early goals in these playoff games. Despite their loss on Monday, the Predators are still 6-1 in the last seven trips to Denver, as well as 17-4 when playing with revenge from a loss to an opponent earlier this season. And they're 16-5 after giving up more than 2 goals in each of their two previous games. Take the Predators. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-18 | Wolves +10.5 v. Rockets | Top | 82-102 | Loss | -105 | 54 h 58 m | Show |
At 9:35 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Minnesota Timberwolves + the points over Houston. The Rockets were the league's best team (by far) this season. But in Game 1 of the Playoffs they had to withstand a missed 3-pointer by Jimmy Butler to escape with a 3-point win. We'll fade the Rockets in Game 2, as .719 (or better) NBA teams off a win by less than 15 points to open a playoff series are a soft 27.6% ATS since 1991, and just 16.6% ATS when laying more than 9 points. Take Minnesota + the points. NBA ELITE INFO WINNER. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-18-18 | Pacers v. Cavs -8 | Top | 97-100 | Loss | -110 | 51 h 26 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, on Wednesday, our selection is on the Cleveland Cavaliers minus the points over Indiana. The Pacers walloped the Cavaliers, 98-80, in Game 1. But LeBron James' teams have cashed 71% at home in his career in the Eastern Conference Playoffs when they've not led in a Playoff series. But that's not the best part. In the first two rounds, in his career, LeBron's teams are a perfect 7-0 SU/ATS at home when they've trailed in a Playoff series, and have covered by an average of 10.06 ppg. This will be a roast. Take Cleveland minus the points. NBA GAME OF THE MONTH. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-17-18 | Pelicans v. Blazers -6 | Top | 111-102 | Loss | -116 | 31 h 2 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, on Tuesday, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over New Orleans. The Blazers were upset by Anthony Davis & Co. on Saturday night. But I love Portland to level this series at one game apiece. Indeed, teams seeded #3 (or better) off a loss to start the NBA Playoffs, are 32-3 straight-up and 24-9-2 ATS at home in Game 2, including a perfect 8-0 ATS vs. foes with a .567 (or better) win percentage. Lay the points with Portland. PERFECT 10 CLUB PLAY. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-17-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings -121 | Top | 1-0 | Loss | -121 | 19 h 50 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Kings over the Vegas Golden Knights. With their backs against the proverbial wall, the mighty Kings -- winners of two Stanley Cups the past eight years -- are in danger of being skunked in the first round of the playoffs. And it would be historic because the team they're playing is an expansion club that wasn't even in the league a year ago. The Kings have done a bunch of things right in this series but haven't been able to break through. They were woefully out-shot in game two, but were without defensive star Drew Doughty. With Doughty back for game three here at home, the tide turned with L.A. winning the battle, 39 shots to 26. But it lost the war, 3-2. We've seen Knights goalie Marc-Andre Fleury have meltdowns in post-season games before, but so far in this series he's been near-perfect. Look for the Kings to apply even more pressure tonight. They held the Knights scoreless (0 for four) on their power plays, but went 0 for five themselves and that has to change. The Kings are 15-3 when playing with triple revenge. Take L.A. NHL High Roller Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-17-18 | Astros -168 v. Mariners | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 26 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Houston Astros over the Seattle Mariners. Lance McCullers, Jr's dad played in the majors for seven seasons with four different teams and never won a World Series. The younger McCullers is all of 24 years old and already has one ring and should have plenty of chances for more. McCullers is a budding ace whose best seasons are likely still ahead. And with the likes of Justin Verlander, Dallas Keuchel, and now Gerrit Cole pitching in front of him, McCullers doesn't have the added pressure that comes with being one of the top three guys. McCullers started out 2018 with a solid start at home, but then got lit up in Minneapolis in start #2. We'll chalk that one up to the cold weather in Minnesota, and expect much better things tonight in Seattle where the Stros have won three of McCullers' last four starts. Seattle LH Ariel Miranda gets his first start of the season tonight. Miranda has a winning record in his career, but also a 4.79 ERA in 43 games (39 starts). He has a tough assignment at home where the M's have lost each of his last three starts vs. Houston. And Houston's 50-23 its last 73 as a road favorite. Take the 'Stros. MLB Payback Payday. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-16-18 | Rangers v. Rays -158 | Top | 4-8 | Win | 100 | 16 h 33 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Tampa Bay Rays over the Texas Rangers. While Mother Nature wreaked havoc on the weekend games, the Rangers won at home on Sunday night against their cross-state rivals Houston in extra innings. Now they have to travel to Florida for this series against the Rays. A pair of southpaws will go to the mound in game one of this three game set in St. Pete. Martin Perez has an unsightly 11.88 ERA in his first two starts of 2018 for Texas, having allowed a whopping 19 hits in 8 1/3 innings. The Rangers seem to be content on keeping Perez in their rotation despite his continued struggles. The Rays will go with Blake Snell. If Snell can learn to limit his walks he could be a very effective pitcher in the Majors. Snell has 17 strikeouts in 15 innings this season for one of the best K rates in the league, but he also has issued 15 free passes. That might play well tonight against the free-swinging Rangers lineup. The Rays are 4-0 in Snell's last four starts vs. teams from the AL West while the Rangers are 0-8 in their last eight during game one of a series. Take Tampa. MLB Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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04-16-18 | Bruins v. Maple Leafs -110 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 15 h 29 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Boston Bruins. You may recall a year ago when the Maple Leafs gave the Capitals all they could handle in their first round series, with five of the six games going to overtime. Well, so far at least, Toronto isn't improving -- or even doing the same -- in this first round series as the Leafs have allowed 12 goals in the first two games, including seven in game two on Saturday. But there is reason to believe that they can come back tonight in game three. For one thing, Toronto was quite a bit more stingy on defense at home this regular season than it was on the road (2.66 GAA vs. 2.95), while the Bruins scored at a much lower rate on the road than in Boston (2.93 GPG vs. 3.59). And the Leafs were one of the hottest teams on home ice in the second half, going 21-7 in their last 28 games here at Air Canada Centre. The Bruins have struggled here lately as well, going 0-4 in their last four trips north to Toronto. And in four cases this season when the Leafs lost back-to-back road games and then returned home, they were 3-1. Take Toronto. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-15-18 | Golden Knights v. Kings -140 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -140 | 19 h 8 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Kings over the Vegas Golden Knights. The Golden Knights fairy-tale of a season continues into the post-season. The Knights took games one and two at home and are thus undefeated in their playoff history. Game two was perhaps the greatest game in Vegas franchise history, going to double-overtime before the home team prevailed 2-1. But one can only wonder if the result would have been different had the Kings had the services of #1 defenseman, Drew Doughty. Doughty was suspended for one game after a hit to the head of the Knights' William Carrier in game one. So with L.A. already down two D-men (Jake Muzzin and Derek Forbort), Doughty's return tonight is absolutely crucial to the Kings' chances. Both regular season games here at Staples Center were incredibly close, with each team prevailing once (both in OT) so there's every reason to think that the Kings can even the series tonight. The Knights are 1-4 in their last five road games. Take Los Angeles. NHL Division Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-15-18 | Brewers v. Mets -187 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 10 h 40 m | Show |
At 1:10 pm, our selection is on the New York Mets over the Milwaukee Brewers. The Mets historic April run -- their 11-1 start was the best in Franchise history -- hit a minor bump on Saturday. The Brewers came into Queens and beat the home team, 5-1 behind some very good pitching. The Mets respond today with one of their two aces as RH Noah Syndergaard takes the mound for his third start of the season. You can't help but feel that as the man they call "Thor" continues to progress from his 2017 injury we're going to see something special in 2018. And with the offense doing what it's done this season, run support should not be an issue like it has in the past. Syndergaard is 2-0 with a 3.94 ERA, but what really stands out are his 22 strikeouts and four walks in 16 innings. The Brewers won the game yesterday, but they may have lost the battle. With their outfield already missing Christian Yelich (he won't return from the DL today), Ryan Braun left Saturday's game with an apparent back injury. The Crew will also be without catcher Manny Pina again. They are 4-8 in the last 12 trips to NY, and 8-24 (minus 9 games on the money line) when priced from +175 to +250. Take the Mets. Mound Mismatch Massacre. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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04-14-18 | Sharks v. Ducks -131 | Top | 3-2 | Loss | -131 | 18 h 31 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the Anaheim Ducks over the San Jose Sharks. The Sharks were one of two road teams to pull upsets in game one of the playoffs on Thursday night -- the other one being the Blue Jackets. But while Columbus snuck by the Capitals in OT, San Jose put on a dominating performance, shutting out the home team in Anaheim, 3-0. In fact, this was the third straight win for the Sharks over the Ducks in their last three meetings, all of which have been here at the Honda Center. Clearly, this puts the Ducks in a must-win situation tonight in Game two. And there is reason to believe that they will be successful. First of all is the fact that the Ducks rebound very well from losses like the one they suffered two nights ago. In their last eight games following a loss of three or more goals, the Ducks are an impressive 7-1. And despite their victory in Game one, the Sharks are 3-14 in their last 17 road games vs. teams with a home winning % of greater than .600. Take Anaheim. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-14-18 | Pirates -155 v. Marlins | Top | 1-0 | Win | 100 | 14 h 2 m | Show |
At 7:10 pm, our selection is on the Pittsburgh Pirates over the Miami Marlins. Gone are the two players who arguably meant the most to the Pirates -- Gerrit Cole and Andrew McCutchen -- and yet Pittsburgh is off to one of its best starts in recent memory. The Pirates are 9-4 and hold an unlikely 2 1/2 game lead in the National League Central. Almost everyone has been contributing to the Bucs success, but two players in particular have made the fans somewhat forget about the losses of Cole and Cutch. On the offensive side, OF Gregory Polanco is off to a scorching start, leading the lead with 15 RBI. And in the Bucs starting rotation, RHP Jameson Taillon seems to be on the verge of a breakout season at 2-0 with a 1.26 ERA and 0.49 WHIP in his first two starts. Taillon is coming off the first shutout of his pro career -- a one-hit gem against the Reds on Sunday at PNC Park. He pitched five innings and won his only start at Marlins Park last season where he'll go for start number three tonight. Despite their loss last night, the Pirates are still 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Take Pittsburgh. MLB Road Warrior Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-13-18 | A's v. Mariners +109 | Top | 4-7 | Win | 109 | 21 h 56 m | Show |
At 10:10 pm, our selection is on the Seattle Mariners over the Oakland Athletics. When the Mariners needed another reliable starter to bolster their rotation late last year, they pulled off a sneaky-smart trade with the Cardinals to get RHP Mike Leake. Leake's not the kind that will strike out a bunch of guys, but for a #3 starter to be able to go out every five or six days behind the likes of Hernandez and Paxton, he's a great fit. The move paid immediate dividends for Seattle as Leake went 3-1 with a 2.53 ERA in five starts last season and he's off to a 2-0 start (3.00 ERA) in his first two starts of 2018. And the Cards are picking up a big chunk of his contract. He'll go for start #3 tonight at home against the A's, who he beat last September 1, tossing a gem (7 IP, 2 ER, 8H, 7K) while winning the game 3-2. Leake has a winning record (3-2) with a 3.44 ERA in six career starts here at Safeco Field. Leake has not allowed more than two runs in six of his last seven starts (and in the seventh he allowed three) going back to that win over Oakland last September. The A's are 1-8 in the last nine meetings. Take Seattle. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-12-18 | Maple Leafs v. Bruins -155 | Top | 1-5 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Toronto Maple Leafs. All the Bruins had to do to lock up the top spot in the East was to beat the Florida Panthers -- already eliminated from the playoffs -- at home on Sunday in their make-up game. They couldn't do it. And now as a result -- and a result of the NHL playoff system -- Boston will likely have to go through both Toronto AND Tampa Bay just to reach the NHL semi-finals. This will be the only series in the East that features two teams with at least 100 points in the regular season. Having said that, it's the Leafs that have to prove themselves as a legitimate post-season threat as they haven't made it to a conference Finals since 2001-2002. Don't look for another letdown from the hosts today as Boston should be ready to play. And the home team is 4-1 in the last five meetings of these two. Toronto had one of the easiest schedules down the stretch of any team, playing the Devils, Canadiens, Jets, Islanders, Panthers, Red Wings, and Sabres (twice) in their last eight games. Winnipeg is the only playoff team of that group (and the Jets won that game, 3-1). Boston's 12-2 at home off a loss, while Toronto is an awful 2-9 on the road off a win by 2+ goals. Take the Bruins. NHL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-18 | Spurs v. Pelicans -3.5 | Top | 98-122 | Win | 104 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the New Orleans Pelicans minus the points over San Antonio. The San Antonio Spurs have a severe home/road bias this season. At home, the Spurs are 33-8 straight-up and 25-14-2 ATS. And they've won their last 11 home games in a row (9-2 ATS; 8-3 'under' the total). But on the road, San Antone is a miserable 14-26 SU and 17-22-1 ATS, including 0-7 SU its last seven (and 1-11 SU its last 12). A key reason for this is that San Antonio's defense has not traveled with it on the road, of late. Indeed, since the All-Star break, the Spurs' defensive rating at home is 2nd in the NBA, while it's #22 on the road. The Spurs are a horrid 0-9 ATS at New Orleans the last four seasons when not favored by double-digits. Take the Pelicans. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-18 | Nuggets v. Wolves -3 | Top | 106-112 | Win | 100 | 14 h 56 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota T-Wolves minus the points over Denver. Minnesota comes into this final game off three straight point spread wins. And home teams with a winning record, off three ATS wins, have covered 90% in their final game of the season since 1991 vs. foes off a SU/ATS home win. With Denver in off an 88-82 win vs. Portland (as a 5-point favorite), we'll lay the points with Minnesota on Wednesday. |
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04-11-18 | Grizzlies v. Thunder -16.5 | Top | 123-137 | Loss | -105 | 8 h 28 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Oklahoma City Thunder minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies threw in the towel on the season months ago, so it wasn't a surprise to hear that center Marc Gasol won't play in tonight's finale. And Gasol will join a long list of solid NBA players sidelined for Memphis in this game (e.g., JaMychal Green, Chandler Parsons, Tyreke Evans, Mike Conley).  Memphis will finish with the 2nd worst record this season (one game ahead of Phoenix), so will have an excellent chance to get the #1 pick in the 2018 draft. The Grizzlies lost by 19 points to the T-Wolves on Monday, and that doesn't bode well for them, as .300 (or worse) teams off a loss have cashed just four of 21 games in their final game of the season, if they're matched up against a foe with a win percentage greater than .300. Take the Thunder to blow out Memphis. |
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04-11-18 | Raptors v. Heat -4.5 | Top | 109-116 | Win | 100 | 4 h 14 m | Show |
At 8:05, our selection is on the Miami Heat minus the points over Toronto. The Raptors have had a brilliant season, and earned the #1 seed in the East. For their reward, they'll rest their stars tonight in Miami. This will be the Heat's final home game of the season, and Miami falls into a 92-57 ATS "Last Home Game" system of mine, which plays on certain teams, with a .333 (or better) record in their final home game of the season. And the Heat also fall into a 42-14 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off 15+ point blowout losses. More ammunition for pulling the trigger on the Heat tonight: Miami is 26-12 ATS off back to back losses, and 46-33 ATS when playing with revenge. Lay the points with Miami. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-18 | Nets -1.5 v. Celtics | Top | 97-110 | Loss | -115 | 4 h 11 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Boston. We played on Brooklyn in its last game -- a win and cover vs. the Bulls -- and that was the Nets' 3rd straight win and cover. Meanwhile, the Celtics are trending in the opposite direction with 0 ATS wins in their last four games. And that includes a blowout loss at Washington last night (another game we had, as we laid the points with the Wizards). We will once again play against the Celtics, who clearly have no interest in this game. For technical support, consider that .481 (or better) teams off a loss are awful as home underdogs/PK vs. non-winning opponents, as they've cashed just 26 of 79 games since 1990. Take Brooklyn. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-11-18 | Blue Jays v. Orioles -113 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 13 h 57 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Toronto Blue Jays. If you follow the Orioles, you pretty much knew that it was only a matter of time before the offense got going. That matter of time was this past weekend when they visited the Bronx. After plating a total of six runs in their first four games, the O's offense started to show signs of life in the last two in Houston, putting eight runs across. Then came the New York series, and Machado & Co. really got going, putting up 23 runs in four games and winning three of them as a result. Everyone who follows MLB knows that this is not a very good pitching staff and runs will have to come in bunches for the O's to be successful this season. The O's became the first MLB team to call up its #1 starting prospect when they promoted Hunter Harvey on Monday. Tonight it will be RHP Kevin Guasman who, after a sub-par first outing, pitched much better against the Yankees last Friday. The Blue Jays are 8-19 in their last 27 road games vs. teams with a right-handed starter. And Baltimore's 71-37 as a home favorite. Take the O's. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-18 | Warriors v. Jazz -8 | Top | 79-119 | Win | 100 | 3 h 20 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Utah Jazz minus the points over Golden State. The Jazz are playing as well as any team in basketball, and are the proverbial team which 'no one wants to play' in the Playoffs. Utah is 28-5 its last 33 games, and 19-14 ATS, including two blowout wins over this Golden State squad (129-99, 110-91). I look for the Jazz to pull off the hat trick tonight with another blowout win, as they fall into 106-44, 87-40 and 69-39 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine.  Also, this will be the Warriors' final road game of the season, and .500 (or better) teams are a poor 88-121 ATS in their final road game of the year if they are an underdog. Lay the points with Utah. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-10-18 | Celtics v. Wizards -7.5 | Top | 101-113 | Win | 100 | 2 h 20 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Wizards over the Boston Celtics. The Wizards will close out their home schedule with a game tonight vs. the Celtics. And the Wizards are playing this game with a significant 'rest' advantage, as they have had the previous three days off, while the Celtics are playing on just one day of rest. Since 1991, .500 (or better) teams have cashed 59.2% in their final home game of the season when playing with at least 2 more days' of rest than their opponent. With the Wizards still in a battle for playoff seeding, and Boston locked into the #2 slot, we'll lay the points. Take Washington. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-10-18 | Pirates v. Cubs -142 | Top | 8-5 | Loss | -142 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
At 2:20 pm, our selection is on the Chicago Cubs over the Pittsburgh Pirates. No doubt about it, the Pirates have been one of the big surprises in all of the Majors so far, getting off to a 7-2 start and holding a two game lead over the Cubs (who have played all nine of their games on the road). But after having faced Detroit, Minnesota, and Cincinnati, the Bucs get their first real test beginning this week with a three-game set in Chicago against the 2016 World Champs. RHP Ivan Nova had the strongest home field bias of any starter in the league last year. When pitching at PNC Park, Nova sported an 8-2 record with a 2.80 ERA in 12 starts. But when he was on the road, things got ugly -- to the tune of 3-12 with a 5.19 number in 19 starts (no doubt Nova wanted the number of home-road starts to be reversed). That bias was on full display in his last start here at Wrigley on August 30. In that one, Nova allowed four runs on five hits in just three innings in a 17-3 blasting by the Cubs. Chicago will go with newly-acquired RH Tyler Chatwood, who suffered a bad beat in his first start, losing 1-0 to the Reds despite a very good effort (one run in six innings). Take the Cubs to win their home opener. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-09-18 | Bulls v. Nets -7.5 | Top | 105-114 | Win | 100 | 8 h 44 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets minus the points over Chicago. These two teams met in their last game, and Brooklyn blew out the Bulls, 124-96, in Chicago. That was also the 2nd straight blowout win by Brooklyn in this series (they won by 17 here in late February). Tonight, they play in Brooklyn, and we'll lay the points with the Nets, who fall into 51-11 and 95-41 ATS 'momentum' systems of mine that play on certain teams off blowout wins. Even worse for Chicago: this will be its final road game of the season. And underdogs of 4+ points have cashed just 17.6% of the time since 1993 off a 25-point blowout loss, if they gave up 110+ points in that defeat. Take Brooklyn. NBA Roadkill Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-08-18 | Warriors v. Suns +13.5 | Top | 117-100 | Loss | -110 | 11 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Phoenix Suns + the points over Golden State. The Warriors are the league's most talented team. Unfortunately, this might be a star-crossed season (which some might view as karma for Zaza Pachulia's takeout of Kawhi Leonard in last year's playoffs). Currently, Steph Curry and Patrick McCaw have significant injuries, while Andre Iguodala also is hobbled, and won't play tonight. The Warriors are 57-23 SU and 33-47 ATS this season, and firmly ensconced in 2nd place in the Western conference. They also haven't covered two straight games since February 26, and have gone 5-14 ATS since. The Warriors played their final home game of the season yesterday vs. the Pelicans (who were still battling for a playoff spot), and lost to New Orleans, so they now have to play the Suns without rest, and without anything to play for. Let's grab the points with Phoenix in a home underdog role, today. Yes, it's true that the Warriors have won 14 straight in the series. But the last game (just seven days ago) was close, and the Suns easily covered in Oakland, as a 14.5-point underdog. This game also will be Phoenix's final home game of the season, and home underdogs have cashed 60% since 1991 in their final home game when playing .666 (or better) foes. Take the Suns + the points over Golden State. NBA High Roller Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-08-18 | Mets v. Nationals -159 | Top | 6-5 | Loss | -159 | 17 h 26 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Nationals over the New York Mets. If the Nationals thought that 2018 would be another walk in the park to a third straight NL East Title -- well it isn't starting out that way. Bryce Harper has done his part, with a league-leading five HRs, but the rest of the offense is sputtering, and the aces of the staff are off to a slow start as well. So maybe 2018 will be RH Tanner Roark's time? The #4 starter in this very talented rotation, Roark took a step back last season after a breakout 2016 campaign, but he appears ready to break out again. Roark's first start was a gem -- one run on four hits in seven innings with six K's and one BB in an easy win over Atlanta. He'll try to duplicate that tonight on National TV against the Mets and RH Matt Harvey. There's been no bigger enigma in MLB the last few seasons than Harvey, who also pitched very well in his debut. But given the recent problems he's had, we need to see more than just one quality start from the troubled veteran to be convinced he's turned the corner. The Nats are 8-3 in Roark's last 11 starts vs. the Mets. And they're also 72-39 (+19 games on the moneyline) when playing at night. Take Washington. MLB Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-08-18 | Panthers v. Bruins -265 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -265 | 10 h 4 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Florida Panthers. Yesterday was supposed to be the last day of the regular season in the NHL, with every team playing. But a storm came through the Northeastern U.S. early in the year, and the game between the Panthers and Bruins on January 4 was postponed and will be made up tonight in Boston as the only game on the schedule. But what makes this game really interesting is the fact that, while the Panthers are playing for absolutely nothing, the Bruins will actually take over the top seed in the Eastern Conference with a victory (courtesy of the Lightning losing its game on Saturday). So the Panthers have to get on a plane to travel all the way north to play a meaningless game. Thus, Boston is (rightfully) a huge favorite this evening. Florida is 7-25 in the last 32 meetings. Thus, it should be a very happy occasion for the fans who will fill the TD Garden. Lay the big price with the Bruins. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-08-18 | Pacers v. Hornets +2 | Top | 123-117 | Loss | -115 | 1 h 40 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over Indiana. We played on the Hornets at Orlando on Friday, and were rewarded with a 37-point win. Meanwhile, Indiana was blown out, 92-73, by Toronto on Friday. It's true that Charlotte is out of the playoff picture with a losing record this season, while the Pacers are 46-34, and will be playing next weekend. But losing teams off wins by 30+ points have cashed 64% at home vs. foes off losses by 15+ points. Take Charlotte. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-18 | Blazers v. Spurs -4 | Top | 105-116 | Win | 100 | 10 h 56 m | Show |
 At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs over the Portland Trail Blazers. The Spurs have a severe home/road bias this season. At home, the Spurs are 31-8 straight-up and 24-13-2 ATS. And they've won their last nine home games in a row (8-1 ATS). But on the road, San Antone is a miserable 14-26 SU and 17-22-1 ATS, including 0-7 SU its last seven (and 1-11 SU its last 12). A key reason for this is that San Antonio's defense has not traveled with it on the road, of late. Indeed, since the All-Star break, the Spurs' defensive rating at home is 97.3 (2nd in the NBA), while it's 110.5 on the road (#22). The good news for Gregg Popovich's crew is that it will have two of its final three games at home, including tonight's game vs. Portland. The Spurs will likely qualify for the Playoffs with just one more win, and I believe they'll get that victory tonight. San Antonio is an awesome 59-28 ATS as a favorite off a double-digit road loss, if its opponent is off a point spread win. Lay the points with the Spurs. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-18 | Pelicans v. Warriors -6 | Top | 126-120 | Loss | -125 | 18 h 30 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm, our selection is on the Golden State Warriors minus the points over New Orleans. This will be the Warriors' final home game of the season. And while it's true that it's largely been a disappointing regular season for the champs, I expect them to play hard tonight, given coach Steve Kerr's post-game comments following their 20-point loss to Indiana. Kerr called his team's performance "pathetic," and said he was "embarrassed." That should light a fire under his team tonight, and Golden State will also have an advantage in that the Pelicans had to play on Friday night, in Phoenix (while the Warriors were resting). The Warriors are an awesome 35-12 ATS off a loss by more than eight points, if they're playing an unrested foe. Lay the points with Golden State. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-18 | Bucks -9 v. Knicks | Top | 115-102 | Win | 100 | 17 h 31 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Milwaukee Bucks minus the points over New York. We played on the Knicks last night, and got the cash when they blew out Miami, 122-98, as a 7.5-point underdog. Unfortunately, since 1990, losing teams off a double-digit win are a poor 26% ATS as home dogs of more than 8 points vs. foes off a loss. Additionally, Milwaukee falls into a 137-75 ATS system of mine Take Milwaukee. |
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04-07-18 | Canadiens v. Maple Leafs -220 | Top | 2-4 | Win | 100 | 8 h 55 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Maple Leafs over the Montreal Canadiens. It's been a season to forget for the once-mighty Montreal Canadiens. If it seems like the team that has won more NHL Championships than other has been banged up the entire season that's because it has. Montreal still has enough decent players on the shelf (both offense and defense) to put together a pretty good hockey team -- with a couple to spare on the bench as well. Of course for a team that has been out of contention for a while, this gives the Canadiens a chance to see what some of the youngsters can do. But that probably won't win you many games, especially against a talented group like the Leafs. Toronto features one of the best young players -- if not THE best -- on the planet in 20-year-old C Auston Matthews, but the talent on the team doesn't stop there. If there's a team that the favorites (Caps, Bruins, Lightning) don't want to face in the playoffs, it's likely this one. Montreal is 11-40 in its last 51 vs. teams with a winning record. And even though the game seemingly has little meaning for the Leafs, they did not play well vs. the Devils on Thursday. And that did not sit well with either the players, or their coach, Mike Babcock. After the game, Babcock lamented that his team "didn't compete hard enough," and said that tonight's game will be the "last chance to get ready." I believe they will. Take the Maple Leafs. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-07-18 | Devils v. Capitals -160 | Top | 3-5 | Win | 100 | 7 h 37 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Washington Capitals over the New Jersey Devils. The Devils have wrapped up their first NHL Post Season appearance since they made the Cup Finals in 2012 with a strong showing in the last few weeks. And they still have a chance to improve their position in their final game of the regular season. They've won four straight games, but the problem for them tonight may be that those were against the Islanders, Canadiens, Rangers and Maple Leafs -- the latter of which being the only one with a winning record. They face a much tougher test tonight against the Capitals in Washington, despite the fact that the home team has nothing to play for. After all, just because a team isn't playing for anything in its final game, doesn't mean it's going to roll over, especially when it wants to send the local faithful home happy one last time. It's interesting that Braden Holtby is scheduled to play in goal tonight. It may mean that the Caps are going to go with Philipp Grubauer to begin the post-season. The Devils are 3-13 in the last 16 meetings and 1-5 in the last six in D.C. Take the Caps. NHL Roadkill Winner. |
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04-07-18 | Nuggets v. Clippers +1 | Top | 134-115 | Loss | -100 | 13 h 31 m | Show |
At 3:35 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Clippers over the Denver Nuggets. Los Angeles needs to win its last three games to even have a shot to make the playoffs, so this is a 'must-win' game for Doc Rivers' crew. If there is a silver lining for L.A., it's that all three of their games will be played here, at home. Denver's been a fairly poor road team this season, with a 14-25 SU record, and a 16-21-2 ATS mark. Even worse: Denver's 7-15 ATS on the road off a win. And the Clippers fall into a 67-25 ATS angle of mine which plays on certain teams off double-digit losses. Take the Clippers. |
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04-06-18 | Blues -150 v. Blackhawks | Top | 4-1 | Win | 100 | 18 h 35 m | Show |
At 8:35 pm our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Chicago Blackhawks. Usually, by this time of the season, the Blues and Hawks have both made it safely into the playoffs and they're battling each other for the better seed in the West. This year however is different. There are new, dominant teams in the Conference and Chicago has long been eliminated from post-season consideration while St. Louis is hanging on by a thread and desperately needs to win its remaining two games (and get help from others). They got no help from this Blackhawks team two nights ago when Chicago came to St. Louis and beat the Blues despite being out-played through most of the game. The Blues will try to return the favor tonight at United Center where they won an overtime contest on March 18, 5-4. In fact this place has been good for them recently as the Blues are 5-2 in their last seven trips here. Searching for answers to their awful net-minding this season, the Hawks have used four different goalies at various stages in their last four games without much success. Take St. Louis. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-06-18 | Heat v. Knicks +9 | Top | 98-122 | Win | 100 | 17 h 35 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the New York Knicks + the points over Miami. The Knicks were blown out by 24 points, at home, on Tuesday by the Magic, while Miami won by 29 vs. Atlanta, on Wednesday. But off those two results, we'll grab the points with New York, as underdogs of 9+ points, off losses by more than 20, have covered 63% the last 15 seasons vs. foes off wins by more than 20 points. Take the Knicks. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-06-18 | Hornets -5.5 v. Magic | Top | 137-100 | Win | 100 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets minus the points over Orlando. The Hornets have won 10 straight (8-2 ATS) in this Southeast division series, and catch the Magic off back to back SU/ATS wins. Unfortunately for Orlando, it's a poor 1-6 SU/ATS off back to back SU/ATS wins. And it's 28-48-2 ATS at home its last 78. Take Charlotte. |
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04-06-18 | Cavs v. 76ers -3.5 | Top | 130-132 | Loss | -105 | 16 h 6 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Philly 76ers minus the points over Cleveland. These two teams are tied in the loss column (with 30 losses), so this game will likely determine which ends up with the overall #3 seed in the Eastern Conference. Philly has a definite advantage tonight, as it is rested, while Cleveland played last night vs. Washington. And the Cavs are a poor 2-14 ATS on the road off back to back wins, if they played the night before. Meanwhile, the Sixers have covered 10 straight, and won their last 12, straight-up. Lay the points. |
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04-05-18 | Coyotes v. Canucks -108 | Top | 3-4 | Win | 100 | 19 h 25 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Vancouver Canucks over Arizona. The Coyotes come into this game off back to back blowout wins over St Louis (6-0) and Calgary (4-1). But they're an awful 2-16 after not giving up more than a goal in either of their two previous games. Take Vancouver to win its final home game of the season. Good luck, as always....Al McMordie. |
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04-05-18 | Bruins -120 v. Panthers | Top | 2-3 | Loss | -120 | 17 h 56 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Boston Bruins over the Florida Panthers. The Panthers are hanging on by a thread in the race for the last playoff spot in the East. One thing they have going for them is that while most teams have two games left in the regular season, the Panthers have three. The problem is that two of those are against the Bruins, starting with this one tonight at home (they finish the season in Boston on Sunday). Unfortunately the Bruins aren't going to lay down tonight because they are also playing for the top seed in the East as, heading into this game, Boston is tied with Tampa for the conference's most points with 110. And both Boston and Tampa have an outside shot at the President's Trophy, and home ice throughout the playoffs (Nashville currently leads the NHL with 113 points). The Bruins can't be too happy coming in tonight, having just been shutout by the Lightning in their last game on Tuesday in Tampa (4-0). They're going to have a chip on their shoulder here in South Florida. The Bruins are 21-5 in the last 26 meetings and 16-5 in the last 21 trips to Miami. Take Boston. |
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04-05-18 | Predators +100 v. Capitals | Top | 4-3 | Win | 100 | 7 h 15 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Nashville Predators over the Washington Capitals. In what could be a preview of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Predators travel to DC to take on the Capitals in the next-to-last game of the regular season for both clubs. While the Caps have wrapped up their third straight Division Crown, the Wild has been hanging around in the Central Division, but Nashville could clinch with a win tonight. The Preds lost a tough one in their last, falling to the Panthers in Florida despite out-shooting them by 13 (46-33). The Caps have been good, but inconsistent lately, as they beat the Penguins in Pittsburgh and Blues in St. Louis, but lost badly at home to the Hurricanes on Friday in the game before that. They have a goaltending decision to make for the playoffs, as back-up Philipp Grubauer has out-played #1 Braden Holtby pretty much all season and is making a strong case to be the post-season starter. But Holtby is scheduled to go tonight. Nashville is 6-2 in the last eight meetings and 10-3 in its last 13 road games. Take the Preds. |
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04-05-18 | Marlins v. Phillies -152 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Miami Marlins. After visiting Atlanta and Queens, the Phillies will play their home opener this afternoon and they probably couldn't have asked for a better match-up. Much has been made of the off-season clearance sale that took place in South Florida courtesy of new owner Derek Jeter, and most baseball folks think it will be a long season for the Marlins as a result. Not only are Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich gone, but the next best player on the team, catcher J.T. Realmuto has been out since the start of the season (back) and will not be rushed back to action. LHP Caleb Smith will get his second start of the season tonight, and he and the Marlins can only hope that it goes as well as his season debut. In that one, Smith allowed one run on four hits in five innings in a 2-1 victory over the Cubs (he did not factor in the decision). But Smith put up an ugly 7.71 ERA in nine games in his rookie season, so his 2018 debut was likely an aberration. Smith's mound opponent tonight will be Nick Pivetta (who we backed last week in a 5-4 win at Atlanta). Miami is 0-4 in the last four meetings and 1-4 in the last five trips to Philly. Take the Phils. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-04-18 | Spurs -6 v. Lakers | Top | 112-122 | Loss | -115 | 11 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Antonio Spurs minus the points over Los Angeles. Last night, the Spurs lost a heartbreaker to the Clippers in LA, while the Lakers fell by seven, 117-110, in Utah. So, the Lakers will travel back home tonight to host the Spurs (who won't have to travel at all). We'll lay the points with San Antonio, as the Spurs are 87-54 ATS vs. unrested foes, including 24-6 ATS when the Spurs were off an upset loss. Take San Antonio. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-04-18 | Rangers v. A's -145 | Top | 2-6 | Win | 100 | 17 h 33 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. Both of the starters in tonight's game, RH Doug Fister of the Rangers and LH Sean Manaea of the A's pitched well in their season debuts against very good teams. Fister picked up the win against the Astros at home while Manaea took a tough loss against the Angels (also here at home). Fister joins the Rangers after spending 2017 with the Red Sox, and he will have a more prominent role for Texas given how thin its rotation is this season. But while Manaea is a potential star on the rise, Fister's best years are clearly behind him and he is a prime candidate for a regression tonight in his first road start of the season. Although Fister sports a career 2.61 ERA here in nine starts, he is just 4-4 in those. And it's important to note that most of those were with teams that were much better than this current incarnation of the Rangers. Manaea has pitched well against the Rangers in his career and the A's are 5-2 in this seven starts against them. Heading into Wednesday, Texas is 3-9 in the last 12 meetings and 2-10 in the last 12 in Oakland. Take the A's. AL West Division Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-04-18 | Celtics v. Raptors -6.5 | Top | 78-96 | Win | 100 | 8 h 15 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Toronto Raptors minus the points over Boston. The Raptors have lost their last nine to the point spread. But Toronto still has a winning ATS record this season, and the Raptors are also in first place by two games over the Celtics (with five to play). So, this game is huge for both teams, and I look for Toronto to blow out Boston, as teams with a .450 (or better) ATS win percentage are 77.2% ATS since 1990 off 9+ ATS losses. Lay the points with Toronto. NBA Game of the Week. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-03-18 | Stars v. Sharks -172 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -172 | 19 h 49 m | Show |
At 10:35 pm, our selection is on the San Jose Sharks over the Dallas Stars. The Sharks have been one of the most consistent teams in the NHL over the past two decades in terms of making it to the playoffs. It looks like they will be post-season bound again -- San Jose's 18th trip to the playoffs in the last 20 years. But despite all that success, the Sharks have only made one appearance in the Stanley Cup Finals, and that was two seasons ago and they were pretty soundly beaten by the Penguins that year. They come into tonight having lost three straight games for only the fourth time this season and no doubt the Sharks would love to get back on the winning track and lock up that post-season birth. The Stars won their last game, beating the Wild 4-1, but it was only their second victory in the last 11 games. The home team is 5-0 in the last five meetings of these two, while the Stars are 3-10 in the last 13 trips to San Jose. Take the Sharks. NHL Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-03-18 | Dodgers -163 v. Diamondbacks | Top | 1-6 | Loss | -163 | 18 h 54 m | Show |
At 9:40 pm, our selection is on the Los Angeles Dodgers over the Arizona Diamondbacks. Clayton Kershaw got his eighth opening-day start last week, and for the first time, the Dodgers lost the game. It really wasn't his fault, as the offense generated no runs to back another strong performance by their LH ace, and the Dodgers fell to the Giants at home, 1-0. They also failed to get a man across the plate in their second game, but by their third game, the Dodgers' hitters had come out of hibernation, as they throttled the Giants in back-to-back shutouts to the tune of 5-0 on Saturday and 9-0 on National TV the following night. Last night, unfortunately for LA, the Diamondbacks scored three in the bottom of the 9th to tie the game, and then proceeded to win 8-7 in extra innings. Now, the Dodgers and Kershaw get another chance tonight in Arizona, where rumor has it they are using a humidor in an effort to keep the balls in the Park more. That could definitely help the three-time Cy Young Award winner as Kershaw is 5-7 with a 3.75 ERA in 12 starts at Chase Field. But most of the damage was done in one particularly ugly start here back in 2014 (it might have been Kershaw's worst ever). L.A. is 12-1 in Kershaw's last 13 starts on four days' of rest. Take the Dodgers. MLB Payback Payday. As always, good luck...Al McMordie |
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04-03-18 | Nets +8 v. 76ers | Top | 95-121 | Loss | -105 | 6 h 39 m | Show |
At 7:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Philadelphia. The Sixers are on a 10-game win streak (and 8-game point spread win streak), while Brooklyn was blown out, 108-96, as as 1-point underdog in its last game. But those two situations set up our play tonight, as home favorites that have covered 7+ games in a row are a poor 17.8% ATS since 1990 vs. foes that failed to cover by 10+ points in their previous game. Take Brooklyn + the points over Philly. NBA Elite Info Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-02-18 | Rangers v. A's -136 | Top | 1-3 | Win | 100 | 20 h 1 m | Show |
At 10:05 pm, our selection is on the Oakland Athletics over the Texas Rangers. The Energizer Bunny of Major League Baseball, RHP Bartolo Colon, will get his first start of the season tonight in Oakland. The Texas Rangers will be the 11th Major League team that Colon will pitch for when takes the mound tonight at The Coliseum. But as much as we want to root for the 44-year-old veteran, Colon fell off badly last season. After posting a 3.43 ERA and making the All-Star team in 2016 with the Mets, Colon went 7-14 with a 6.48 ERA in 28 starts in stints with the Braves and Twins in 2017. In some respects, Texas is the perfect team for him as it is clearly in rebuilding mode and will likely finish at or near the bottom of the AL West this year, so anything Colon can contribute will be seen as a success. RHP Andrew Triggs will get his first start of the season for the A's and Triggs has pitched very well in his two starts against the Rangers (one ER in 11 2/3 innings). Triggs also beat them in his only start against them last season, 4-2. Texas is 2-8 in the last 10 meetings and 0-8 in the last eight in Oakland. Take the A's. MLB Mound Mismatch Massacre. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-02-18 | Michigan +7 v. Villanova | Top | 62-79 | Loss | -110 | 20 h 6 m | Show |
At 9:20 pm, our selection is on the Michigan Wolverines + the points over Villanova. We played on Michigan and against Villanova on Saturday. And we will do so, once again, tonight. The Wildcats darted out to a 22-4 lead vs. Kansas, and then kept the Jayhawks at bay the rest of the way, en route to a 95-79 win. Unfortunately, in the NCAA Tournament, in the Sweet 16 round forward, favorites off wins by more than 15 points have covered 0 of their last 10 vs. lower-seeded opponents. That doesn't bode well for the Wildcats tonight. And neither does the fact that underdogs of +6.5 (or more) points have gone 10-0 ATS in the Final Four since 1993 vs. .895 (or better) foes. Finally, Michigan falls into 49-15, 26-3, 31-4, 15-0 and 18-1 ATS Tourney systems of mine. Grab the points with the Wolverines. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-02-18 | Capitals v. Blues -155 | Top | 4-2 | Loss | -155 | 18 h 2 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the St. Louis Blues over the Washington Capitals. With their victory over the Penguins on Sunday, the Caps have clinched their third straight Metropolitan Division Crown. But getting to the post-season has never been the Caps issue in the past. Now they travel to St. Louis to face the Blues who are battling for one of the five remaining playoff spots in the Western Conference. This will be the Caps fourth game in the last six days as they will make their first visit to the Gateway City since January of 2017. With their post-season spot pretty much decided, don't be surprised if the Caps take their foot off the accelerator a bit in their remaining games. The Blues lost their second straight game on Saturday, an embarrassing 6-0 drubbing at the hands of the Coyotes in Arizona. Expect a bounce-back tonight at home with the Blues backs against the proverbial playoff wall. The Blues are 4-0 in their last four vs. teams from the Eastern Conference and 13-5 in their last 18 vs. teams from the Metropolitan. Take St. Louis. NHL Game of the Week. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-18 | Pistons v. Nets +1 | Top | 108-96 | Loss | -110 | 15 h 46 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Brooklyn Nets + the points over Detroit. Brooklyn upset Miami, 110-109, as an 8.5-point road underdog on Saturday, while Detroit downed the Knicks yesterday, 115-109, as a 4.5-point favorite. We'll take the Nets as a home dog this evening, as home dogs have cashed 65.4% ATS since 1990 vs. unrested foes off a SU/ATS win, if our home dog won outright as a 6-point (or better) road underdog in its last game. Take Brooklyn. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-18 | Magic +2 v. Hawks | Top | 88-94 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 45 m | Show |
At 6:05 pm, our selection is on the Orlando Magic + the points over Atlanta. The Hawks have been a very poor favorite over the last two seasons, and they're 21-36 ATS as a favorite since Nov. 20, 2016. That bodes well for Orlando this evening. As does the fact that Orlando falls into a 92-61 ATS system of mine which plays on certain teams off upset losses (the Magic were upset by the Chicago Bulls, on Friday). Take Orlando + the points. |
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04-01-18 | Twins v. Orioles -102 | Top | 7-0 | Loss | -102 | 10 h 49 m | Show |
At 1:35 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Minnesota Twins. The Orioles won their opening day game here on Thursday in dramatic fashion when Adam Jones hit a solo home run in the bottom of the 11th inning. It marked the third straight 3-2, walk-off victory for the Orioles on Opening Day. But that's likely to be somewhat the norm for the 2018 version of this team as the Orioles have plenty of hitting, but questionable-at-best pitching, meaning that last-minute heroics -- both for and against them -- could be something we see a lot of this season. Today it will be RHP Kevin Gausman going for Baltimore. Gausman came up just about the same time as their newly-minted ace, Dylan Bundy. And although he was thought to have as much potential, Guasman has yet to advance the way his young teammate has. But Gausman routinely throws in the mid-to-upper 90s and that's not something you can teach, so look for a possible breakout from him in 2018. The Twins will go with LHP Jose Berrios and they are 1-10 in his last 11 road starts. Take Baltimore. MLB Roadkill Winner. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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04-01-18 | 76ers v. Hornets +3 | Top | 119-102 | Loss | -115 | 10 h 48 m | Show |
At 1:05 pm, in an NBA TV-televised game, our selection is on the Charlotte Hornets + the points over Philadelphia. These two teams will be meeting for the fourth time this season on Sunday. The other three games all took place in March, and the Sixers won each game. But the leading scorer for Philly in two of those three games (and in all three games, combined) was center Joel Embiid. Unfortunately for Philly, Embiid will be absent today, as he recently underwent surgery to repair an orbital fracture. That will help open up things for Charlotte's center, Dwight Howard, who has averaged 22.8 ppg over his last five appearances. Take the Hornets. |
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03-31-18 | Kansas +5 v. Villanova | Top | 79-95 | Loss | -105 | 136 h 55 m | Show |
At 8:45 pm, our selection is on the Kansas Jayhawks + the points over Villanova. These two teams were seeded #1 in their respective regions. But it was Kansas which faced the more difficult road here to San Antonio. The Jayhawks bested Duke, Clemson, and Seton Hall. And those three teams rank #3, #14 and #25 in the current KenPom.com rankings. In contrast, Villanova's last three wins were against Texas Tech, West Virginia and Alabama. And those three teams currently rank #11, #12 and #55. Kansas also faced a more difficult schedule throughout the season, as the Jayhawks' schedule ranked as the 2nd toughest in College Basketball this year. Interestingly, there have been 35 post-season match-ups between two teams seeded #1, and the underdog has cashed 69.6% (23-10-2 ATS), including 11-1 ATS when getting 5+ points, and 10-2 ATS in the semi-final round. Moreover, Kansas is a super 8-3 ATS in the NCAA Tourney when getting 3+ points. Finally, the Jayhawks fall into several of my best tournament systems, with records of 31-3, 40-9, 18-1, 24-4 and 155-59 ATS. Take the Jayhawks + the points. NCAA Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-30-18 | Blackhawks v. Avalanche -195 | Top | 0-5 | Win | 100 | 10 h 44 m | Show |
At 9:05 pm, our selection is on the Colorado Avalanche over the Chicago Blackhawks. With five games to go in the NHL regular season, the Blackhawks will put this down as a season to forget. The 'Hawks have been eliminated from post-season play for the first time in 10 years, and they're going to finish the season with the lowest 82-game point total since their 2006-2007 campaign. It doesn't get any easier tonight as they venture into what has been one of the toughest places for opposing teams this season (Pepsi Center) to face a team that is right in the thick of the Wild Card race and desperate for a victory. The Avalanche is sitting with 90 points right now -- one behind the Blues and Ducks in the battle for the final playoff spot in the West. The 'Hawks pulled off an upset of the Jets on Thursday, but when you consider that Winnipeg's playoff spot is pretty much set at this point and its #1 concern right now is probably the health of its players, then Chicago's 6-2 win really isn't that surprising. The Avs are 5-1 in their last six home games vs. teams with a road winning % of less than .400. Take Colorado. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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03-30-18 | Phillies +115 v. Braves | Top | 5-4 | Win | 115 | 13 h 60 m | Show |
At 7:35 pm, our selection is on the Philadelphia Phillies over the Atlanta Braves. The Phillies surprised a lot of people in the off-season. Instead of waiting for their talented group of youngsters to develop to the point where they could be competitive -- thought to be at least a year from now -- the Phils went out and signed some high-profile free agents. The most notable of these were 1B/OF Carlos Santana (previously with the Indians) and RHP Jake Arrieta (Cubs). These proven veterans, along with up and comers like Rhys Hoskins, Jorge Alfaro, JP Crawford, Cesar Hernandez, and Aaron Nola, add up to a team that could compete this season -- if not on the same level as the Nationals then definitely as a strong Wild Card contender. They play the second game in as many days against the Braves in Atlanta and will hand the ball to second-year RHP Nick Pivetta. Pivetta struggled through most of his rookie campaign, but he had a very solid Spring and at age 24 could be poised for a breakout in 2018. Philly is 4-0 in Pivetta's last four starts and 7-2 in their last nine following a loss. Take the Phils. MLB Division Game of the Month. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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03-30-18 | San Francisco +4.5 v. North Texas | Top | 77-88 | Loss | -105 | 12 h 27 m | Show |
At 7 pm, our selection is on the San Francisco Dons + the points over North Texas. We played on San Francisco -3.5 in Game 1 of this best-of-3 series (and won), and then took North Texas -3 in Game 2 (and also won). Now, for Game 3, the deciding game of this Championship series, we will grab the points with San Francisco. This is the 11th year of the CBI tournament, and for the ninth time in 11 tourneys, the Championship round has gone a full three games. In the previous eight tournaments that reached Game 3, the underdog has cashed five of seven (with one push). We'll grab the points with the Dons, as San Francisco falls into 9-1, 67-35, 33-17 and 33-16 ATS systems of mine. Additionally, North Texas has gone 0-8 ATS since 2010 as a favorite of -4 points or more at home vs. non-conference foes. Take San Francisco. CBI Tourney Game of the Year! Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-29-18 | Stars v. Wild -150 | Top | 2-5 | Win | 100 | 17 h 3 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Minnesota Wild over the Dallas Stars. With five games to go in the season, the Dallas Stars are dangerously close to being eliminated from the post-season for the eighth time in the last 10 years. The Stars have 86 points -- four behind the Avalanche and five away from the final Wild Card spot in the Western Conference. The Wild on the other hand are almost assured of their sixth straight playoff appearance with what is looking like a third-place finish in the in the Central Division. Once again, Minnesota relied heavily on its defense and goaltending this season. And although its 2.79 GAA overall was slightly better than average, Minnesota's home number of 2.23 is the best in the entire League this season. The Wild will put that defense to work tonight at home in an effort to lock up that post-season berth against a team that has won just 14 road games all season. And this has been a very host-friendly series lately as the home team is 41-19 in the last 60 meetings. Take Minny. NHL ROADKILL WINNER. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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03-29-18 | Twins v. Orioles -117 | Top | 2-3 | Win | 100 | 12 h 4 m | Show |
At 3:05 pm, our selection is on the Baltimore Orioles over the Minnesota Twins. The 2017 regular season will start out looking familiar for the Baltimore Orioles, but by the summer, things could change dramatically. Offensive stars Adam Jones and Manny Machado will be free agents at the end of this season, and assuming the O's are not in contention (an assumption almost everyone is making) then they may be saying goodbye to both of these familiar faces before the end of July. But for now, this is a team with a solid chance of winning when not facing the two "beasts from the east" (the Red Sox and Yankees). Budding ace RH Dylan Bundy gets his first opening day start, while the Twins #1 hurler, RH Ervin Santana, will be out for most of April with a finger injury. That leaves Minny's opening-day duties to newly-acquired RH Jake Odorizzi, who came over from the Rays in February. Odorizzi has never pitched well at Camden Yards (a 5.44 career ERA in nine starts here) while the suspension of SS Jorge Polanco won't help their offensive output today. Take the O's. MLB ROADKILL WINNER. As always, good luck...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-18 | Sam Houston State +10.5 v. Northern Colorado | Top | 80-99 | Loss | -105 | 15 h 6 m | Show |
At 9 pm, our selection is on the Sam Houston State Bearkats + the points over Northern Colorado. The Bearkats come into this game off back-to-back upset wins over Texas San Antonio and Eastern Michigan. And that bodes well for them tonight, as teams off back-to-back upset wins have cashed 38 of 63 in the NIT, CBI and Insider Tourneys since 1991. Additionally, Northern Colorado falls into a negative 72-152 ATS system of mine. Take the points with Sam Houston. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-18 | San Francisco v. North Texas -3 | Top | 55-69 | Win | 100 | 15 h 37 m | Show |
At 8:30 pm, our selection is on the North Texas Mean Green minus the points over San Francisco. We played on North Texas in both of its home games earlier in this tournament, and were rewarded with two blowout wins over Mercer (96-67) and Jacksonville St (90-68). We played against North Texas in its next game, which was on the road, and got the cash with San Francisco. But we'll come right back with the Mean Green at home, tonight, as it's 5-0 straight-up, and 4-1 ATS at home in the post-season, with an average cover by 12.2 ppg. Meanwhile, San Francisco is a poor 1-7 SU and 2-6 ATS on the road in the post-season, including 0-5 ATS when not getting more than 6 points. Finally, the Mean Green fall into a 60% ATS system of mine. Lay the points with North Texas. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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03-28-18 | Blazers -5.5 v. Grizzlies | Top | 103-108 | Loss | -113 | 9 h 45 m | Show |
At 8:05 pm, our selection is on the Portland Trail Blazers minus the points over Memphis. The Grizzlies won a rare game two nights ago when they went into Minnesota and defeated the Timberwolves, 101-93, as a 13-point underdog. But the last time Memphis won two straight games was back on January 19, so I expect it to get blown out tonight. Memphis is a dreadful 2-21 SU and 7-16 ATS its last 23 games, while Portland is 17-3 SU and 16-3-1 ATS over its last 20. Take Portland. NBA Road Warrior Winner. Good luck, as always...Al McMordie. |
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